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000
FXUS65 KLKN 230336
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
736 PM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING IN
SOME OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...WIND ADVISORY EXPIRED ON TIME AT 7 PM PST. EXPECT
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN AREAS PRONE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...INCLUDING RIDGELINES AND SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF
MOUNTAINS. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 246 PM /

SYNOPSIS...A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT. WITH
PATCHY FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I80.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING
ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT...WITH THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA ESPECIALLY
IN ELKO COUNTY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
THERE WILL BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT HOWEVER THE EC IS STILL COLDER...STRONGER AND A FEW
HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL MODELS INCREASING QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO TRAJECTORY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
GENERALLY EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. THE
CIPS ANALOGS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOWED 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WITH 700MB ANOMALIES OF 2-3 SHOWN ON
NAEFS ALSO EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY SO
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MODELS SHOWING VERY STRONG MSLP
GRADIENT OF UP TO 10MB OR BETTER ACROSS CWA SO HIGH WIND WARNING
MAY ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN SOME AREAS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXISTS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST NEVADA. MOISTURE AND ENERGY DIVING TO
THE SOUTH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NORTH OF I80. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR
THE MOST PART. BY THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRYING TO SEND ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A 10% PROBABILITY OF FZFG OVER KEKO...AND HAVE USED VCFG
WORDING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN WANING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT LESS THAN 15 KT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 230336
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
736 PM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING IN
SOME OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...WIND ADVISORY EXPIRED ON TIME AT 7 PM PST. EXPECT
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN AREAS PRONE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...INCLUDING RIDGELINES AND SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF
MOUNTAINS. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 246 PM /

SYNOPSIS...A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT. WITH
PATCHY FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I80.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING
ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT...WITH THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA ESPECIALLY
IN ELKO COUNTY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
THERE WILL BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT HOWEVER THE EC IS STILL COLDER...STRONGER AND A FEW
HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL MODELS INCREASING QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO TRAJECTORY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
GENERALLY EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. THE
CIPS ANALOGS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOWED 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WITH 700MB ANOMALIES OF 2-3 SHOWN ON
NAEFS ALSO EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY SO
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MODELS SHOWING VERY STRONG MSLP
GRADIENT OF UP TO 10MB OR BETTER ACROSS CWA SO HIGH WIND WARNING
MAY ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN SOME AREAS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXISTS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST NEVADA. MOISTURE AND ENERGY DIVING TO
THE SOUTH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NORTH OF I80. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR
THE MOST PART. BY THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRYING TO SEND ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A 10% PROBABILITY OF FZFG OVER KEKO...AND HAVE USED VCFG
WORDING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN WANING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT LESS THAN 15 KT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

96/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 222246
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
246 PM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT. WITH
PATCHY FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I80.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING
ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT...WITH THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA ESPECIALLY
IN ELKO COUNTY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
THERE WILL BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT HOWEVER THE EC IS STILL COLDER...STRONGER AND A FEW
HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL MODELS INCREASING QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO TRAJECTORY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
GENERALLY EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. THE
CIPS ANALOGS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOWED 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WITH 700MB ANOMALIES OF 2-3 SHOWN ON
NAEFS ALSO EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY SO
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MODELS SHOWING VERY STRONG MSLP
GRADIENT OF UP TO 10MB OR BETTER ACROSS CWA SO HIGH WIND WARNING
MAY ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXISTS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST NEVADA. MOISTURE AND ENERGY DIVING TO
THE SOUTH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NORTH OF I80. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR
THE MOST PART. BY THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRYING TO SEND ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A 10% PROBABILITY OF FZFG OVER KEKO...AND HAVE USED VCFG
WORDING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN WANING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT LESS THAN 15 KT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NYE
COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

90/86/86





000
FXUS65 KLKN 222246
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
246 PM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT. WITH
PATCHY FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I80.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING
ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT...WITH THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA ESPECIALLY
IN ELKO COUNTY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
THERE WILL BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT HOWEVER THE EC IS STILL COLDER...STRONGER AND A FEW
HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL MODELS INCREASING QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO TRAJECTORY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
GENERALLY EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. THE
CIPS ANALOGS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOWED 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WITH 700MB ANOMALIES OF 2-3 SHOWN ON
NAEFS ALSO EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY SO
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MODELS SHOWING VERY STRONG MSLP
GRADIENT OF UP TO 10MB OR BETTER ACROSS CWA SO HIGH WIND WARNING
MAY ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXISTS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST NEVADA. MOISTURE AND ENERGY DIVING TO
THE SOUTH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NORTH OF I80. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR
THE MOST PART. BY THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRYING TO SEND ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A 10% PROBABILITY OF FZFG OVER KEKO...AND HAVE USED VCFG
WORDING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN WANING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT LESS THAN 15 KT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NYE
COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

90/86/86




000
FXUS65 KLKN 221137
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
337 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NEVADA
TODAY...WITH MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. WARM AND DRY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
CHRISTMAS BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TODAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF NEVADA. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THIS EVENING. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS ACROSS
NEVADA. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
THE STRONG JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

LIGHT VALLEY RAINS AND MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ELKO COUNTY TODAY
WHERE SNOW AND BLOWING ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM.
SNOW LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE NEAR 8500 FEET...HOWEVER
COLDER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO
LOWER DOWN TO NEAR VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY
BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT WESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS RUN
MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT PLUNGES
INTO THE BATTLE BORN STATE ON CHRISTMAS EVE, WHICH IS MUCH MORE
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS, BUT STILL NOT AS DEEP AS THE ECMWF. AS MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW
STAND WOULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND
MOST OF CENTRAL NV. SHORT WAVE QUICKLY EXITS THE FORECAST AREA
LATER ON CHRISTMAS DAY. VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS CHRISTMAS
DAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR
WEST IT WILL DIG. THE GFS SHOWS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT WOULD
AFFECT MAINLY NORTHEAST NV WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS THIS WAVE MUCH
FURTHER WEST BRINGING SNOW TO ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST
NV WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS, WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFT 18Z.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

96/91/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 221137
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
337 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NEVADA
TODAY...WITH MORE VALLEY RAIN AND MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. WARM AND DRY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
CHRISTMAS BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TODAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF NEVADA. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THIS EVENING. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS ACROSS
NEVADA. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
THE STRONG JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

LIGHT VALLEY RAINS AND MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ELKO COUNTY TODAY
WHERE SNOW AND BLOWING ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM.
SNOW LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE NEAR 8500 FEET...HOWEVER
COLDER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO
LOWER DOWN TO NEAR VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY
BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT WESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS RUN
MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT PLUNGES
INTO THE BATTLE BORN STATE ON CHRISTMAS EVE, WHICH IS MUCH MORE
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS, BUT STILL NOT AS DEEP AS THE ECMWF. AS MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW
STAND WOULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND
MOST OF CENTRAL NV. SHORT WAVE QUICKLY EXITS THE FORECAST AREA
LATER ON CHRISTMAS DAY. VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS CHRISTMAS
DAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR
WEST IT WILL DIG. THE GFS SHOWS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT WOULD
AFFECT MAINLY NORTHEAST NV WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS THIS WAVE MUCH
FURTHER WEST BRINGING SNOW TO ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST
NV WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS, WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFT 18Z.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

96/91/91





000
FXUS65 KLKN 212233
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
233 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
WITH VALLEY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA ON
TUESDAY BUT DRIER BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER LATE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING THE AREA MAY SEE SOME SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. STAY TUNED FOR CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY
ABOVE 6,500 TO 7,000 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL NEVADA AND
WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO MOST OF THE VALLEY FLOORS WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WILL
OCCUR BEHIND COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY IN TONOPAH AND WEST WENDOVER
AREAS AND IN OTHER DOWNSLOPE PRONE AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS ELKO COUNTY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A BIT COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES OVER.

WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE MUCH DEEPER AND
FASTER UPPER LEVEL WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE MADE
SOME CHANGES MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 THAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE VARIOUS MODELS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE EAST...BUT AT THIS
TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A
FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST...BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE 12-18
HOURS. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE KEKO TERMINAL...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHWESTERN NYE
COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

90/86/86





000
FXUS65 KLKN 212233
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
233 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
WITH VALLEY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA ON
TUESDAY BUT DRIER BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER LATE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING THE AREA MAY SEE SOME SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. STAY TUNED FOR CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY
ABOVE 6,500 TO 7,000 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL NEVADA AND
WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO MOST OF THE VALLEY FLOORS WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WILL
OCCUR BEHIND COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY IN TONOPAH AND WEST WENDOVER
AREAS AND IN OTHER DOWNSLOPE PRONE AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS ELKO COUNTY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A BIT COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES OVER.

WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE MUCH DEEPER AND
FASTER UPPER LEVEL WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE MADE
SOME CHANGES MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 THAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE VARIOUS MODELS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE EAST...BUT AT THIS
TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A
FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST...BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE 12-18
HOURS. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE KEKO TERMINAL...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHWESTERN NYE
COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

90/86/86




000
FXUS65 KLKN 211142
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
342 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. WARM AND DRY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND OR SNOW EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY...WITH
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATED OVER ELKO COUNTY WHERE SNOW
LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7500 FEET. CONTINUED THE SNOW
ADVISORIES FOR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS...AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER MOST ADDITIONAL SNOW
WILL FALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH THE STRONG JET
ALOFT FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS AND PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PERIOD COMMENCES
WITH STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SILVER STATE. HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL RAPIDLY DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
GFS/EC HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SHORT WAVE, BUT THE EC CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER AND MORE MOIST.
EITHER WAY WITH FAST MOVING COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW, GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST NV WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS EASTERN
NV ON CHRISTMAS DAY. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NV ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. POSSIBLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NV FRIDAY, OTHERWISE DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD. DRY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST NV NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE KEKO TERMINAL, WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT KWMC, KELY, AND KTPH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY ABOVE 6500 FEET AND THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE.

&&

$$

96/91/91





000
FXUS65 KLKN 211142
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
342 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. WARM AND DRY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND OR SNOW EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY...WITH
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATED OVER ELKO COUNTY WHERE SNOW
LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7500 FEET. CONTINUED THE SNOW
ADVISORIES FOR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS...AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER MOST ADDITIONAL SNOW
WILL FALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH THE STRONG JET
ALOFT FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS AND PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PERIOD COMMENCES
WITH STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SILVER STATE. HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL RAPIDLY DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
GFS/EC HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SHORT WAVE, BUT THE EC CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER AND MORE MOIST.
EITHER WAY WITH FAST MOVING COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW, GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST NV WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS EASTERN
NV ON CHRISTMAS DAY. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NV ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. POSSIBLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NV FRIDAY, OTHERWISE DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD. DRY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST NV NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE KEKO TERMINAL, WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT KWMC, KELY, AND KTPH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY ABOVE 6500 FEET AND THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE.

&&

$$

96/91/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 210421
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
821 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.UPDATE...LOWERED SNOW LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN VALLEY AREAS THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS RISE LATER
THIS EVENING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN
CONCERN FOR TRAVELERS WILL BE SUMMITS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 WHERE
SOME SNOW MAY STICK TO SURFACES ABOVE 5500 TO 6000 FEET.

ALSO INCREASED WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND NEAR PRONE EASTERN
SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS RUBY VALLEY AND
CLOVER VALLEY EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 222 PM /

SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
50.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
STARTING TO PICK BACK UP AT THIS TIME...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THE MAIN
FEATURE IS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOISTURE CAN
BE SEEN STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. LOOKING AT MESOWEST...MANY SITES ARE COMING IN WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY WITHIN THE 0.25 TO 0.66 INCH
RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL KEEP PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS LIFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA NORTH
OF US HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN. THIS WILL KEEP THE SNOW TO
THE HIGHER PEAKS AND MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET.
OTHERWISE...LOCALES IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL SEE RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF ELKO
COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT VERY WET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HIGH...ABOUT 7500 FEET OR MORE. JET ENERGY AT
250 MB WILL HELP TO CREATE THE LIFT NECCESARY FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WANE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
AND INCLUDING I-80. 700 MB WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH
MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KNOTS. SOME OF THE SUMMITS WILL SEE THESE
STRONG WINDS...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL JUST SEE BREEZY TO NEAR
WINDY CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MAY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY A 500MB RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. GFS
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR THAN EC MODEL...BUT
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06-12Z ON THURSDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
VALLEY FLOORS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM US
HIGHWAY 50 AND AREAS NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS
AND TIMING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH
THIS EVENT. IT WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. FRIDAY WILL BE
DRIER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO AND WHITE PINE
COUNTY DUE TO INSTABILITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT.

AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN AT KEKO AND KWMC. KELY MAY GET SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN...BEST CHANCE WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE KTPH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR. SOME
SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT KEKO
AND KELY...HOWEVER EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS RISE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 210421
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
821 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.UPDATE...LOWERED SNOW LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN VALLEY AREAS THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS RISE LATER
THIS EVENING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN
CONCERN FOR TRAVELERS WILL BE SUMMITS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 WHERE
SOME SNOW MAY STICK TO SURFACES ABOVE 5500 TO 6000 FEET.

ALSO INCREASED WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND NEAR PRONE EASTERN
SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS RUBY VALLEY AND
CLOVER VALLEY EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 222 PM /

SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
50.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
STARTING TO PICK BACK UP AT THIS TIME...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THE MAIN
FEATURE IS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOISTURE CAN
BE SEEN STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. LOOKING AT MESOWEST...MANY SITES ARE COMING IN WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY WITHIN THE 0.25 TO 0.66 INCH
RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL KEEP PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS LIFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA NORTH
OF US HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN. THIS WILL KEEP THE SNOW TO
THE HIGHER PEAKS AND MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET.
OTHERWISE...LOCALES IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL SEE RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF ELKO
COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT VERY WET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HIGH...ABOUT 7500 FEET OR MORE. JET ENERGY AT
250 MB WILL HELP TO CREATE THE LIFT NECCESARY FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WANE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
AND INCLUDING I-80. 700 MB WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH
MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KNOTS. SOME OF THE SUMMITS WILL SEE THESE
STRONG WINDS...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL JUST SEE BREEZY TO NEAR
WINDY CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MAY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY A 500MB RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. GFS
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR THAN EC MODEL...BUT
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06-12Z ON THURSDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
VALLEY FLOORS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM US
HIGHWAY 50 AND AREAS NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS
AND TIMING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH
THIS EVENT. IT WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. FRIDAY WILL BE
DRIER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO AND WHITE PINE
COUNTY DUE TO INSTABILITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT.

AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN AT KEKO AND KWMC. KELY MAY GET SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN...BEST CHANCE WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE KTPH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR. SOME
SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT KEKO
AND KELY...HOWEVER EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS RISE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

96/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 210421
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
821 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.UPDATE...LOWERED SNOW LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN VALLEY AREAS THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS RISE LATER
THIS EVENING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN
CONCERN FOR TRAVELERS WILL BE SUMMITS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 WHERE
SOME SNOW MAY STICK TO SURFACES ABOVE 5500 TO 6000 FEET.

ALSO INCREASED WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN
SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND NEAR PRONE EASTERN
SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS RUBY VALLEY AND
CLOVER VALLEY EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 222 PM /

SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
50.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
STARTING TO PICK BACK UP AT THIS TIME...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THE MAIN
FEATURE IS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOISTURE CAN
BE SEEN STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. LOOKING AT MESOWEST...MANY SITES ARE COMING IN WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY WITHIN THE 0.25 TO 0.66 INCH
RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL KEEP PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS LIFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA NORTH
OF US HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN. THIS WILL KEEP THE SNOW TO
THE HIGHER PEAKS AND MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET.
OTHERWISE...LOCALES IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL SEE RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF ELKO
COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT VERY WET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HIGH...ABOUT 7500 FEET OR MORE. JET ENERGY AT
250 MB WILL HELP TO CREATE THE LIFT NECCESARY FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WANE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
AND INCLUDING I-80. 700 MB WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH
MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KNOTS. SOME OF THE SUMMITS WILL SEE THESE
STRONG WINDS...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL JUST SEE BREEZY TO NEAR
WINDY CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MAY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY A 500MB RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. GFS
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR THAN EC MODEL...BUT
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06-12Z ON THURSDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
VALLEY FLOORS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM US
HIGHWAY 50 AND AREAS NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS
AND TIMING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH
THIS EVENT. IT WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. FRIDAY WILL BE
DRIER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO AND WHITE PINE
COUNTY DUE TO INSTABILITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT.

AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN AT KEKO AND KWMC. KELY MAY GET SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN...BEST CHANCE WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE KTPH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR. SOME
SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT KEKO
AND KELY...HOWEVER EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS RISE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

96/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 202222
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
222 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
STARTING TO PICK BACK UP AT THIS TIME...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THE MAIN
FEATURE IS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOISTURE CAN
BE SEEN STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. LOOKING AT MESOWEST...MANY SITES ARE COMING IN WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY WITHIN THE 0.25 TO 0.66 INCH
RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL KEEP PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS LIFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA NORTH
OF US HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN. THIS WILL KEEP THE SNOW TO
THE HIGHER PEAKS AND MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET.
OTHERWISE...LOCALES IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL SEE RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF ELKO
COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT VERY WET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HIGH...ABOUT 7500 FEET OR MORE. JET ENERGY AT
250 MB WILL HELP TO CREATE THE LIFT NECCESARY FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WANE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
AND INCLUDING I-80. 700 MB WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH
MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KNOTS. SOME OF THE SUMMITS WILL SEE THESE
STRONG WINDS...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL JUST SEE BREEZY TO NEAR
WINDY CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MAY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY A 500MB RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. GFS
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR THAN EC MODEL...BUT
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06-12Z ON THURSDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
VALLEY FLOORS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM US
HIGHWAY 50 AND AREAS NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS
AND TIMING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH
THIS EVENT. IT WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. FRIDAY WILL BE
DRIER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO AND WHITE PINE
COUNTY DUE TO INSTABILITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN AT KEKO AND KWMC. KELY MAY GET SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN...BEST CHANCE WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE KTPH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR. SOME
SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT KEKO
AND KELY...HOWEVER EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS RISE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

86/90





000
FXUS65 KLKN 202222
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
222 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
STARTING TO PICK BACK UP AT THIS TIME...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THE MAIN
FEATURE IS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOISTURE CAN
BE SEEN STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. LOOKING AT MESOWEST...MANY SITES ARE COMING IN WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY WITHIN THE 0.25 TO 0.66 INCH
RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL KEEP PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS LIFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA NORTH
OF US HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN. THIS WILL KEEP THE SNOW TO
THE HIGHER PEAKS AND MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET.
OTHERWISE...LOCALES IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL SEE RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF ELKO
COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL BUT VERY WET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HIGH...ABOUT 7500 FEET OR MORE. JET ENERGY AT
250 MB WILL HELP TO CREATE THE LIFT NECCESARY FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WANE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
AND INCLUDING I-80. 700 MB WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH
MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KNOTS. SOME OF THE SUMMITS WILL SEE THESE
STRONG WINDS...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL JUST SEE BREEZY TO NEAR
WINDY CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MAY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY A 500MB RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. GFS
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR THAN EC MODEL...BUT
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06-12Z ON THURSDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
VALLEY FLOORS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM US
HIGHWAY 50 AND AREAS NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS
AND TIMING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH
THIS EVENT. IT WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. FRIDAY WILL BE
DRIER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO AND WHITE PINE
COUNTY DUE TO INSTABILITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN AT KEKO AND KWMC. KELY MAY GET SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN...BEST CHANCE WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE KTPH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR. SOME
SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT KEKO
AND KELY...HOWEVER EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS RISE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

86/90




000
FXUS65 KLKN 201734
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
934 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FOCUS ON NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE ON SNOW LEVELS...POP...WEATHER...AND
RELATED ELEMENTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT RISING AS QUICKLY AND
GETTING MORE SNOW THAN EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS RIGHT NOW ARE SITTING
AT 5000-5500 FEET OR SO...AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO RISE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS ARE FORECAST TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS...WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES ON THE HIGHER PASSES AND
SUMMITS. TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 332 AM /

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE LADEN PACIFIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET THIS MORNING WILL RISE
TO OVER 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON THEN OVER 7000 FEET TONIGHT AS
THE MILD PACIFIC AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA. ON SUNDAY THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE
STREAM NORTHWARD WITH THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
NV WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL NV. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE AND BY MONDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELKO COUNTY. THE MILDER PACIFIC AIR WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID
40S TO THE LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
FEWER CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH
NEVADA UNDER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TROUGH ENERGY TO DROP
INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN REMAINS RELATIVELY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN...WITH COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS OVER-
TAKING NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO CHRISTMAS. LATEST
GFS RUN IS COMING IN DRIER THAN THE LATEST RUN DUE TO A SLOWER DECAY
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

AVIATION...SOME SCATTERING OF CLOUDS EARLIER TONIGHT WITH THE
REGION BRIEFLY BETWEEN PRECIPITATION EVENTS...LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF
FOG OR LOW STRATUS WHICH IS NOW MOSTLY GONE. CURRENTLY SEEING CLOUDS
INCREASING/SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WITH CIGS LOWERING AS THE
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS APPROACHES. WARMER AIR IS MOVING IN WITH THE
APPROACHING MOISTURE. EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION AT KEKO BEFORE AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SNOW CHANGES
TO RAIN OR POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIKE FRIDAYS PRECIPITATION EVENT...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH KELY AND KTPH ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

86/90




000
FXUS65 KLKN 201734
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
934 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FOCUS ON NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE ON SNOW LEVELS...POP...WEATHER...AND
RELATED ELEMENTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT RISING AS QUICKLY AND
GETTING MORE SNOW THAN EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS RIGHT NOW ARE SITTING
AT 5000-5500 FEET OR SO...AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO RISE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS ARE FORECAST TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS...WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES ON THE HIGHER PASSES AND
SUMMITS. TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 332 AM /

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE LADEN PACIFIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET THIS MORNING WILL RISE
TO OVER 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON THEN OVER 7000 FEET TONIGHT AS
THE MILD PACIFIC AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA. ON SUNDAY THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE
STREAM NORTHWARD WITH THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
NV WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL NV. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE AND BY MONDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELKO COUNTY. THE MILDER PACIFIC AIR WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID
40S TO THE LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
FEWER CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH
NEVADA UNDER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TROUGH ENERGY TO DROP
INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN REMAINS RELATIVELY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN...WITH COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS OVER-
TAKING NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO CHRISTMAS. LATEST
GFS RUN IS COMING IN DRIER THAN THE LATEST RUN DUE TO A SLOWER DECAY
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

AVIATION...SOME SCATTERING OF CLOUDS EARLIER TONIGHT WITH THE
REGION BRIEFLY BETWEEN PRECIPITATION EVENTS...LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF
FOG OR LOW STRATUS WHICH IS NOW MOSTLY GONE. CURRENTLY SEEING CLOUDS
INCREASING/SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WITH CIGS LOWERING AS THE
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS APPROACHES. WARMER AIR IS MOVING IN WITH THE
APPROACHING MOISTURE. EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION AT KEKO BEFORE AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SNOW CHANGES
TO RAIN OR POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIKE FRIDAYS PRECIPITATION EVENT...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH KELY AND KTPH ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

86/90





000
FXUS65 KLKN 201132
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
332 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE FOCUS ON NORTHERN NEVADA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE LADEN PACIFIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET THIS MORNING WILL RISE
TO OVER 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON THEN OVER 7000 FEET TONIGHT AS
THE MILD PACIFIC AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA. ON SUNDAY THE AMPLIFICATION
OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE STREAM NORTHWARD
WITH THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NV WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL NV. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND BY
MONDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO ELKO COUNTY. THE
MILDER PACIFIC AIR WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER
50S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
FEWER CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH
NEVADA UNDER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TROUGH ENERGY TO DROP
INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN REMAINS RELATIVELY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN...WITH COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS OVER-
TAKING NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO CHRISTMAS. LATEST
GFS RUN IS COMING IN DRIER THAN THE LATEST RUN DUE TO A SLOWER DECAY
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERING OF CLOUDS EARLIER TONIGHT WITH THE
REGION BRIEFLY BETWEEN PRECIPITATION EVENTS...LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF
FOG OR LOW STRATUS WHICH IS NOW MOSTLY GONE. CURRENTLY SEEING CLOUDS
INCREASING/SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WITH CIGS LOWERING AS THE
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS APPROACHES. WARMER AIR IS MOVING IN WITH THE
APPROACHING MOISTURE. EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION AT KEKO BEFORE AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SNOW CHANGES
TO RAIN OR POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIKE FRIDAYS PRECIPITATION EVENT...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH KELY AND KTPH ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

91/96/96




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