Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KLKN 020922
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
222 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A BIT
WARMER TODAY BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT CONTINUED SUNNY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SMOKE HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA SO LEFT
IT OUT OF GRIDS. WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY SO SMOKE MAY
FILTER BACK INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH DUE TO FACTORS WHICH COULD AFFECT SMOKE
MOVEMENT. WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
TURN UPPER LEVEL WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL BRING IN AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...ADDITIONALLY
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE
COLD FRONT...BUT WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE
THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK LOW OFF THE NRN CA
COAST PUTS NRN AND CNTRL NV UNDER A MOSTLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE
IS SOME SPOTTY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD THAT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS, BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS
OR PRECIP IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARMER TODAY AND THEN COOLER FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MPH IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEVADA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

90/91/91/90







000
FXUS65 KLKN 020922
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
222 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A BIT
WARMER TODAY BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT CONTINUED SUNNY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SMOKE HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA SO LEFT
IT OUT OF GRIDS. WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY SO SMOKE MAY
FILTER BACK INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH DUE TO FACTORS WHICH COULD AFFECT SMOKE
MOVEMENT. WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
TURN UPPER LEVEL WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL BRING IN AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...ADDITIONALLY
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE
COLD FRONT...BUT WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE
THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK LOW OFF THE NRN CA
COAST PUTS NRN AND CNTRL NV UNDER A MOSTLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE
IS SOME SPOTTY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD THAT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS, BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS
OR PRECIP IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARMER TODAY AND THEN COOLER FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 30 MPH IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEVADA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

90/91/91/90






000
FXUS65 KLKN 012216
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
316 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH SUNNY
SKIES MAY BE DAMPENED AT TIMES BY SMOKE POURING IN FROM CALIFORNIA
FIRES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM ON TUESDAY. THEN...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL BRING IN SOME
COOLER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME VALLEYS ARE ALREADY
GETTING A LITTLE CHILLY AT NIGHT...SO ITS TIME TO START THINKING
ABOUT FINALIZING YOUR GARDENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A DRY FORECAST WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS IMPENDING HOWEVER SMOKY CONDITIONS WILL PLAGUE PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE GUSTY WITH SOME EXTRA
WARMING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MAY IN TURN LESSEN THE
COVERAGE OF SMOKE OVER THE STATE. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY WILL MAX OUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH A POSITIVE TILT TROF EXTENDING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO CALIFORNIA...WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
AS TIME ELAPSES...EXPECTING THE TROF TO DIG DEEPER INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE DGEX...THE GFS AND EC ALL SHOW A SECONDARY IMPULSE MOVING
INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LKN
CWA. THE NCEP RMOP IS WELL INTO CONFIDENT TERRITORY WITH THE TROF
MOVING INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...THRU F120 AND THEN THE
CONFIDENCE LEVEL WANES. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT...THE TIMING OF THE LOW OVER THE BATTLE BORN STATE IS
HIGHLY VARIABLE. BUMPED UP POPS THIS PACKAGE FOR DAY 5 AND DAY
6...TO ACCOUNT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENSUING 24 HR
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS
WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ARE FORESEEN EITHER HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL MIX OUT A LITTLE BETTER ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF DRY
COLD FRONT...AND AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH 30 MPH IN SEVERAL SPOTS. THROUGH AFTERNOON IT APPEARS THAT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG AND ANY GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
WILL NOT SUSTAIN BUT BE SPORADIC AND MAINLY AT MID-SLOPES AND
ABOVE. NO FIRE WEATHER EVENT PLANNED.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97/92







000
FXUS65 KLKN 012216
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
316 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH SUNNY
SKIES MAY BE DAMPENED AT TIMES BY SMOKE POURING IN FROM CALIFORNIA
FIRES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM ON TUESDAY. THEN...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL BRING IN SOME
COOLER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME VALLEYS ARE ALREADY
GETTING A LITTLE CHILLY AT NIGHT...SO ITS TIME TO START THINKING
ABOUT FINALIZING YOUR GARDENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A DRY FORECAST WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS IMPENDING HOWEVER SMOKY CONDITIONS WILL PLAGUE PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE GUSTY WITH SOME EXTRA
WARMING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MAY IN TURN LESSEN THE
COVERAGE OF SMOKE OVER THE STATE. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY WILL MAX OUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH A POSITIVE TILT TROF EXTENDING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO CALIFORNIA...WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
AS TIME ELAPSES...EXPECTING THE TROF TO DIG DEEPER INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE DGEX...THE GFS AND EC ALL SHOW A SECONDARY IMPULSE MOVING
INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LKN
CWA. THE NCEP RMOP IS WELL INTO CONFIDENT TERRITORY WITH THE TROF
MOVING INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...THRU F120 AND THEN THE
CONFIDENCE LEVEL WANES. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT...THE TIMING OF THE LOW OVER THE BATTLE BORN STATE IS
HIGHLY VARIABLE. BUMPED UP POPS THIS PACKAGE FOR DAY 5 AND DAY
6...TO ACCOUNT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENSUING 24 HR
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS
WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ARE FORESEEN EITHER HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL MIX OUT A LITTLE BETTER ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF DRY
COLD FRONT...AND AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH 30 MPH IN SEVERAL SPOTS. THROUGH AFTERNOON IT APPEARS THAT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG AND ANY GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
WILL NOT SUSTAIN BUT BE SPORADIC AND MAINLY AT MID-SLOPES AND
ABOVE. NO FIRE WEATHER EVENT PLANNED.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97/92






000
FXUS65 KLKN 010920
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALL WEEK WITH SOME
SMOKE THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE FIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH TUESDAY THEN COOLER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL BE THE LINGERING SMOKE FROM THE FIRES BURNING IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL SHIFT THE BULK OF THE SMOKE TO THE
SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING HAZE FROM SMOKE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
LEFT PATCHY SMOKE OUT OF FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW
THE FIRES ARE BURNING AND THE WINDS NEAR THE FIRES...SO WILL NEED
TO MONITOR IF SMOKE PLUMES BEGIN TO PUSH WESTWARD AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. NOT TOO MUCH GOING
ON IN THE LONG TERM FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. THE IMPORTANT WEATHER
ELEMENTS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY INCLUDE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A SUBTROPICAL
UPPER RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO/TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERN NEVADA IN
A QUIET WEST-EAST FLOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SPLIT FROM THE MAIN
TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY SETTLE
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
NORTHERN NEVADA DRY...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT BUMP UP IN WINDS TO
BREEZY. EUROPEAN/GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE STATE
WITH SOME ACTIVITY SHOWING UP IN THE EAST. PREVIOUS SHIFT
BROADBRUSHED VERY ISOLATED POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY...AND WILL
KEEP THIS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT WITH
NORMAL DIRECTION CHANGES. SIGNIFICANT SMOKE ALOFT AT KWMC AND
KEKO...BUT NOT REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW P6SM. SOME SMOKY SKIES AT
KELY...EVEN LESS SO AT KTPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH IN PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONES 455 AND 457 BUT DO NOT
EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

90/86/86/90







000
FXUS65 KLKN 010920
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALL WEEK WITH SOME
SMOKE THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE FIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH TUESDAY THEN COOLER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL BE THE LINGERING SMOKE FROM THE FIRES BURNING IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL SHIFT THE BULK OF THE SMOKE TO THE
SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING HAZE FROM SMOKE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
LEFT PATCHY SMOKE OUT OF FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW
THE FIRES ARE BURNING AND THE WINDS NEAR THE FIRES...SO WILL NEED
TO MONITOR IF SMOKE PLUMES BEGIN TO PUSH WESTWARD AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. NOT TOO MUCH GOING
ON IN THE LONG TERM FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. THE IMPORTANT WEATHER
ELEMENTS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY INCLUDE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A SUBTROPICAL
UPPER RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO/TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERN NEVADA IN
A QUIET WEST-EAST FLOW. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SPLIT FROM THE MAIN
TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY SETTLE
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
NORTHERN NEVADA DRY...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT BUMP UP IN WINDS TO
BREEZY. EUROPEAN/GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE STATE
WITH SOME ACTIVITY SHOWING UP IN THE EAST. PREVIOUS SHIFT
BROADBRUSHED VERY ISOLATED POPS OVER THE EAST FOR FRIDAY...AND WILL
KEEP THIS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT WITH
NORMAL DIRECTION CHANGES. SIGNIFICANT SMOKE ALOFT AT KWMC AND
KEKO...BUT NOT REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW P6SM. SOME SMOKY SKIES AT
KELY...EVEN LESS SO AT KTPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH IN PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONES 455 AND 457 BUT DO NOT
EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

90/86/86/90






000
FXUS65 KLKN 312141
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
241 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH THE SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF NEVADA WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES BY SMOKE
POURING IN FROM CALIFORNIA FIRES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
A BIT AS THE WEEK WEARS ON HOWEVER SOME VALLEYS WILL BEGIN TO GET
A LITTLE CHILLY AT NIGHT...SO ITS TIME TO START THINKING ABOUT
FINALIZING YOUR GARDENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A DRY FORECAST IS
IMPENDING. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GET A BOOST
ON TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TOWARDS THE WEST. A BRIEF SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE PACIFIC NW
REGION. THIS MAY LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF SMOKE OVER THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY PATTERN IS ON DECK
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE ONSET...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE LKN CWA...WITH A DEEP H5 LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE. AS TIME
ELAPSES...EXPECTING THE TROF TO DIG DEEPER INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
DGEX...THE GFS AND EC ALL SHOW A SECONDARY IMPULSE MOVING INTO
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LKN CWA.
THE NCEP RMOP IS WELL INTO CONFIDENT TERRITORY WITH THE TROF MOVING
INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...THE TIMING OF THE LOW OVER THE SILVER STATE IS
HIGHLY VARIABLE. BUMPED UP POPS THIS PACKAGE FOR DAY 5 AND DAY
6...TO ACCOUNT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENSUING 24 HR
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ARE FORESEEN EITHER HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TUESDAY AND AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY OVER FIRE ZONE 455...WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 30 MPH IN A
FEW SPOTS BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE TO CALL FOR AN
EVENT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97/92






000
FXUS65 KLKN 312141
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
241 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH THE SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF NEVADA WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES BY SMOKE
POURING IN FROM CALIFORNIA FIRES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
A BIT AS THE WEEK WEARS ON HOWEVER SOME VALLEYS WILL BEGIN TO GET
A LITTLE CHILLY AT NIGHT...SO ITS TIME TO START THINKING ABOUT
FINALIZING YOUR GARDENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A DRY FORECAST IS
IMPENDING. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GET A BOOST
ON TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TOWARDS THE WEST. A BRIEF SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE PACIFIC NW
REGION. THIS MAY LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF SMOKE OVER THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY PATTERN IS ON DECK
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE ONSET...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE LKN CWA...WITH A DEEP H5 LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE. AS TIME
ELAPSES...EXPECTING THE TROF TO DIG DEEPER INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
DGEX...THE GFS AND EC ALL SHOW A SECONDARY IMPULSE MOVING INTO
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LKN CWA.
THE NCEP RMOP IS WELL INTO CONFIDENT TERRITORY WITH THE TROF MOVING
INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...THE TIMING OF THE LOW OVER THE SILVER STATE IS
HIGHLY VARIABLE. BUMPED UP POPS THIS PACKAGE FOR DAY 5 AND DAY
6...TO ACCOUNT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENSUING 24 HR
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ARE FORESEEN EITHER HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TUESDAY AND AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY OVER FIRE ZONE 455...WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 30 MPH IN A
FEW SPOTS BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE TO CALL FOR AN
EVENT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97/92







000
FXUS65 KLKN 310908
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
208 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE HAD BY ALL TODAY AS THE UPPER
SYSTEMS SHIFTS EAST. SOME SMOKE WILL INVADE THE SKY FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING. RADAR IS
PICKING UP A FEW ECHOS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT NOT MUCH IS HITTING THE GROUND.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE AND INTO
UTAH. AS A RESULT...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN.
THROUGH THE DAY...ONLY A FEW HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH..A RESULT OF THE 95 KNOT JET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF SMOKE FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA
BASED ON THE 3KM HRRR.

A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A COOL NIGHT
ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCALES IN NORTHERN NEVADA...LIKE
WILDHORSE...WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ADDED SMOKE OVER
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO THE CALIFORNIA FIRES IN THE NORTH.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY WITH DRY AIR OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS AND EC ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL OVERALL H5 PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST...BUT STILL REMAINS DRY OVER THE CWA BUT A
LITTLE WARMER. BY THURSDAY MORNING...MODELS MAINTAIN A TROF OVER
NEVADA. HOWEVER...EC HINTING AT A COLD FRONT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS HANGS BACK THE TROF OFF THE
CA COAST KEEPING NV DRY. THE EC PUSHES THE TROF EAST AND WEAKENS IT
THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
...EXCEPT GFS SOLUTION IS THE WARMEST HAVING THE CWA MUCH WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO PROMOTE HAZINESS. THUS
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 5 MILES AT TIME AT KWMC.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...WITH SPEEDS 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH THE CHANCE FOR BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY ON...ESPECIALLY IN FIRE ZONE 455.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/87/87/86






000
FXUS65 KLKN 310908
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
208 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE HAD BY ALL TODAY AS THE UPPER
SYSTEMS SHIFTS EAST. SOME SMOKE WILL INVADE THE SKY FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING. RADAR IS
PICKING UP A FEW ECHOS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT NOT MUCH IS HITTING THE GROUND.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE AND INTO
UTAH. AS A RESULT...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN.
THROUGH THE DAY...ONLY A FEW HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH..A RESULT OF THE 95 KNOT JET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF SMOKE FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA
BASED ON THE 3KM HRRR.

A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A COOL NIGHT
ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCALES IN NORTHERN NEVADA...LIKE
WILDHORSE...WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ADDED SMOKE OVER
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO THE CALIFORNIA FIRES IN THE NORTH.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY WITH DRY AIR OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS AND EC ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL OVERALL H5 PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST...BUT STILL REMAINS DRY OVER THE CWA BUT A
LITTLE WARMER. BY THURSDAY MORNING...MODELS MAINTAIN A TROF OVER
NEVADA. HOWEVER...EC HINTING AT A COLD FRONT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS HANGS BACK THE TROF OFF THE
CA COAST KEEPING NV DRY. THE EC PUSHES THE TROF EAST AND WEAKENS IT
THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
...EXCEPT GFS SOLUTION IS THE WARMEST HAVING THE CWA MUCH WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO PROMOTE HAZINESS. THUS
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 5 MILES AT TIME AT KWMC.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...WITH SPEEDS 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH THE CHANCE FOR BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY ON...ESPECIALLY IN FIRE ZONE 455.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/87/87/86







000
FXUS65 KLKN 310353 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
853 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
MAINLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN DRY
AND STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE...ALONG WITH SMOKE FROM
CALIFORNIA FIRES. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT BLOCKS
THE SUN MONDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP OCCURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.UPDATE...MURPHY POPPED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY AND SO EXPANDED THE COVERAGE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY 12Z BUT
NOT THE POPS. THESE ARE MOVING QUICKLY AND THE AIR MASS IS DRY.
REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AND STORM FREE. LEFT SMOKE COVER ALONE
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 247 PM /

SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAZE
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA DUE TO WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE
REGION FROM WILDFIRES BURNING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN REBOUND
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80 FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. BREEZY OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AS A 70-80KT JET DROPS
IN OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS ARE SPREADING SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. WINDS AND
SMOKE DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND .6 HOWEVER...SO EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP INTO THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE ONLY
VIRGA. DRY AND STABLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL H5 PATTERN. THERE WILL BE A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD THE LKN CWFA WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVER
TIME...GETTING NEAR THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO CREATE
SOME INSTABILITY OVER NEVADA. THE DEGREE TO WHICH ANY MOVEMENT
OCCURS IS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE MODELS. SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
POPS MINIMAL.

AVIATION...GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO PROMOTE HAZINESS. THUS CANNOT
RULE OUT DIMINISHED VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY AT KWMC AND KEKO
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SMOKE FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED IN OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND DEW
POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY TO POSSIBLY SET
OFF A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS. NOT QUITE AS BREEZY ON SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. AS SUCH NO WIND/RH ISSUES OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DRY AND STABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TOO...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING THE
RETURN OF WIND/RH ISSUES THURSDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/99






000
FXUS65 KLKN 310353 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
853 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
MAINLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN DRY
AND STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE...ALONG WITH SMOKE FROM
CALIFORNIA FIRES. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT BLOCKS
THE SUN MONDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP OCCURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.UPDATE...MURPHY POPPED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY AND SO EXPANDED THE COVERAGE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY 12Z BUT
NOT THE POPS. THESE ARE MOVING QUICKLY AND THE AIR MASS IS DRY.
REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AND STORM FREE. LEFT SMOKE COVER ALONE
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 247 PM /

SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAZE
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA DUE TO WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE
REGION FROM WILDFIRES BURNING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN REBOUND
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80 FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. BREEZY OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AS A 70-80KT JET DROPS
IN OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS ARE SPREADING SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. WINDS AND
SMOKE DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND .6 HOWEVER...SO EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP INTO THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE ONLY
VIRGA. DRY AND STABLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL H5 PATTERN. THERE WILL BE A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD THE LKN CWFA WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVER
TIME...GETTING NEAR THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO CREATE
SOME INSTABILITY OVER NEVADA. THE DEGREE TO WHICH ANY MOVEMENT
OCCURS IS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE MODELS. SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
POPS MINIMAL.

AVIATION...GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO PROMOTE HAZINESS. THUS CANNOT
RULE OUT DIMINISHED VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY AT KWMC AND KEKO
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SMOKE FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED IN OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND DEW
POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY TO POSSIBLY SET
OFF A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS. NOT QUITE AS BREEZY ON SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. AS SUCH NO WIND/RH ISSUES OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DRY AND STABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TOO...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING THE
RETURN OF WIND/RH ISSUES THURSDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/99







000
FXUS65 KLKN 302147
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
247 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAZE
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA DUE TO WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE
REGION FROM WILDFIRES BURNING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN REBOUND
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80 FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. BREEZY OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AS A 70-80KT JET DROPS
IN OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS ARE SPREADING SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. WINDS AND
SMOKE DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND .6 HOWEVER...SO EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP INTO THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE ONLY
VIRGA. DRY AND STABLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL H5 PATTERN. THERE WILL BE A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD THE LKN CWFA WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVER
TIME...GETTING NEAR THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO CREATE
SOME INSTABILITY OVER NEVADA. THE DEGREE TO WHICH ANY MOVEMENT
OCCURS IS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE MODELS. SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
POPS MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO PROMOTE HAZINESS. THUS CANNOT
RULE OUT DIMINISHED VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY AT KWMC AND KEKO
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SMOKE FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED IN OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND DEW
POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY TO POSSIBLY SET
OFF A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS. NOT QUITE AS BREEZY ON SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. AS SUCH NO WIND/RH ISSUES OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DRY AND STABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TOO...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING THE
RETURN OF WIND/RH ISSUES THURSDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

96/92/92/96






000
FXUS65 KLKN 302147
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
247 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAZE
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA DUE TO WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE
REGION FROM WILDFIRES BURNING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN REBOUND
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80 FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. BREEZY OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AS A 70-80KT JET DROPS
IN OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS ARE SPREADING SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. WINDS AND
SMOKE DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND .6 HOWEVER...SO EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP INTO THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE ONLY
VIRGA. DRY AND STABLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL H5 PATTERN. THERE WILL BE A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD THE LKN CWFA WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVER
TIME...GETTING NEAR THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO CREATE
SOME INSTABILITY OVER NEVADA. THE DEGREE TO WHICH ANY MOVEMENT
OCCURS IS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE MODELS. SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
POPS MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO PROMOTE HAZINESS. THUS CANNOT
RULE OUT DIMINISHED VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY AT KWMC AND KEKO
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SMOKE FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED IN OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND DEW
POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY TO POSSIBLY SET
OFF A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS. NOT QUITE AS BREEZY ON SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. AS SUCH NO WIND/RH ISSUES OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DRY AND STABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TOO...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING THE
RETURN OF WIND/RH ISSUES THURSDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

96/92/92/96







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities