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000
FXUS65 KLKN 262100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
ACROSS NEVADA. DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THURSDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED OVER ELKO COUNTY THIS WEEKEND...OTHERWISE EXPECT MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROAMING ACROSS NEVADA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS WIDESPREAD WITH CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG
ACROSS MOST ZONES. BULK SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE, NEAR 20 KTS OR
LESS, WHICH HAS KEPT STORM INTENSITY LIMITED SO FAR. STRONGEST
STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND A FEW FUNNEL
CLOUDS. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA THROUGH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...566 DM UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN, NEARLY
STATIONARY, NEAR PENDLETON OREGON. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY, BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, GOING OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER ELKO
COUNTY. VERY MILD AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH ALL VALLEYS HOLDING IN THE
40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRAGS ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
IDAHO. ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAIL SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN INTERACT WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO/WHITE PINE/EUREKA COUNTIES, WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY. 12Z NAM DEPICTS STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIFTED
INDEX AS LOW AS -5C, SO FOR ONE MORE DAY, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TAKES OVER BEHIND
DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS.

THURSDAY...DRIER WEATHER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NEVADA. UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND LIMPS EAST INTO WESTERN WYOMING. WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
OVER NEVADA. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NAM LIFTED INDEX TO -3. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WHITE PINE AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTIES, BUT NOT NEARLY THE COVERAGE
WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING ON THURSDAY, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND INCREASED THICKNESSES.
TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON FRIDAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION IS WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE INITIALLY AND WHERE THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...MORE
DAYTIME HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN 80S DURING THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN ELKO COUNTY. RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES SUNDAY...BUT SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MAINLY IN ELKO COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON MONDAY BRINGING SOME ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
REALLY IN DISAGREEMENT TUESDAY AS EC KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA... WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH WITH
EITHER MODEL SOLUTION WILL KEEP NEXT TUESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. JH

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87




000
FXUS65 KLKN 262100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
ACROSS NEVADA. DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THURSDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED OVER ELKO COUNTY THIS WEEKEND...OTHERWISE EXPECT MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROAMING ACROSS NEVADA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS WIDESPREAD WITH CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG
ACROSS MOST ZONES. BULK SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE, NEAR 20 KTS OR
LESS, WHICH HAS KEPT STORM INTENSITY LIMITED SO FAR. STRONGEST
STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND A FEW FUNNEL
CLOUDS. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA THROUGH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...566 DM UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN, NEARLY
STATIONARY, NEAR PENDLETON OREGON. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY, BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, GOING OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER ELKO
COUNTY. VERY MILD AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH ALL VALLEYS HOLDING IN THE
40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRAGS ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
IDAHO. ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAIL SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN INTERACT WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO/WHITE PINE/EUREKA COUNTIES, WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY. 12Z NAM DEPICTS STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIFTED
INDEX AS LOW AS -5C, SO FOR ONE MORE DAY, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TAKES OVER BEHIND
DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS.

THURSDAY...DRIER WEATHER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NEVADA. UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND LIMPS EAST INTO WESTERN WYOMING. WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
OVER NEVADA. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NAM LIFTED INDEX TO -3. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WHITE PINE AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTIES, BUT NOT NEARLY THE COVERAGE
WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING ON THURSDAY, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND INCREASED THICKNESSES.
TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON FRIDAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION IS WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE INITIALLY AND WHERE THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...MORE
DAYTIME HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN 80S DURING THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN ELKO COUNTY. RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES SUNDAY...BUT SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MAINLY IN ELKO COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON MONDAY BRINGING SOME ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
REALLY IN DISAGREEMENT TUESDAY AS EC KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA... WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH WITH
EITHER MODEL SOLUTION WILL KEEP NEXT TUESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. JH

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87





000
FXUS65 KLKN 262100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
ACROSS NEVADA. DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THURSDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED OVER ELKO COUNTY THIS WEEKEND...OTHERWISE EXPECT MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROAMING ACROSS NEVADA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS WIDESPREAD WITH CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG
ACROSS MOST ZONES. BULK SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE, NEAR 20 KTS OR
LESS, WHICH HAS KEPT STORM INTENSITY LIMITED SO FAR. STRONGEST
STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND A FEW FUNNEL
CLOUDS. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA THROUGH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...566 DM UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN, NEARLY
STATIONARY, NEAR PENDLETON OREGON. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY, BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, GOING OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER ELKO
COUNTY. VERY MILD AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH ALL VALLEYS HOLDING IN THE
40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRAGS ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
IDAHO. ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAIL SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN INTERACT WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO/WHITE PINE/EUREKA COUNTIES, WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY. 12Z NAM DEPICTS STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIFTED
INDEX AS LOW AS -5C, SO FOR ONE MORE DAY, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TAKES OVER BEHIND
DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS.

THURSDAY...DRIER WEATHER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NEVADA. UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND LIMPS EAST INTO WESTERN WYOMING. WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
OVER NEVADA. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NAM LIFTED INDEX TO -3. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WHITE PINE AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTIES, BUT NOT NEARLY THE COVERAGE
WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING ON THURSDAY, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND INCREASED THICKNESSES.
TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON FRIDAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION IS WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE INITIALLY AND WHERE THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...MORE
DAYTIME HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN 80S DURING THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN ELKO COUNTY. RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES SUNDAY...BUT SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MAINLY IN ELKO COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON MONDAY BRINGING SOME ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
REALLY IN DISAGREEMENT TUESDAY AS EC KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA... WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH WITH
EITHER MODEL SOLUTION WILL KEEP NEXT TUESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. JH

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87




000
FXUS65 KLKN 262100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
ACROSS NEVADA. DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THURSDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED OVER ELKO COUNTY THIS WEEKEND...OTHERWISE EXPECT MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROAMING ACROSS NEVADA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS WIDESPREAD WITH CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG
ACROSS MOST ZONES. BULK SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE, NEAR 20 KTS OR
LESS, WHICH HAS KEPT STORM INTENSITY LIMITED SO FAR. STRONGEST
STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND A FEW FUNNEL
CLOUDS. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA THROUGH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...566 DM UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN, NEARLY
STATIONARY, NEAR PENDLETON OREGON. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY, BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NEVADA WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, GOING OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER ELKO
COUNTY. VERY MILD AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH ALL VALLEYS HOLDING IN THE
40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRAGS ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
IDAHO. ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAIL SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN INTERACT WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO/WHITE PINE/EUREKA COUNTIES, WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY. 12Z NAM DEPICTS STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIFTED
INDEX AS LOW AS -5C, SO FOR ONE MORE DAY, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TAKES OVER BEHIND
DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS.

THURSDAY...DRIER WEATHER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NEVADA. UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND LIMPS EAST INTO WESTERN WYOMING. WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
OVER NEVADA. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NAM LIFTED INDEX TO -3. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WHITE PINE AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTIES, BUT NOT NEARLY THE COVERAGE
WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING ON THURSDAY, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND INCREASED THICKNESSES.
TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON FRIDAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION IS WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE INITIALLY AND WHERE THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...MORE
DAYTIME HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN 80S DURING THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN ELKO COUNTY. RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES SUNDAY...BUT SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MAINLY IN ELKO COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON MONDAY BRINGING SOME ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
REALLY IN DISAGREEMENT TUESDAY AS EC KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA... WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH WITH
EITHER MODEL SOLUTION WILL KEEP NEXT TUESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. JH

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87





000
FXUS65 KLKN 260933
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
233 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TOMORROW. EXPECTING THE RIDGE TO RETURN BY WEEKS END
RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE EIGHTIES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER WASHINGTON AND IDAHO
STATE...WITH A TROF EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECTING LIFT
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROF. WITH THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...IT SHOULD BE EASILY GET CONVECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE GFS40 AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND EVEN IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH ROBUST CAPES AND -1 TO -2 LIS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA. SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE...EVERY MODEL HAS BEEN PINGING INTO
ANOTHER PRECIP SHIELD THAT PIVOTS OVER NE NV...WITH ELKO COUNTY
AGAIN GETTING THE LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF. CHANGING GEARS...WEDNESDAY
...THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME DECENT SHEAR TO NORTHERN NV...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OVER SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
OVER THE SILVER STATE...BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE AXIS OF AN EXITING
TROUGH WILL SKIP THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT WHITE PINE AND EASTERN
ELKO COUNTIES.

THURSDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN IN
A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD BRING A SPELL OF DRY
WEATHER. BY SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REACH INTO THE 80S.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE ENTERING THE EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL REGION. DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OF THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH INTO THE 80S WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING
DOWN A BIT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/92/92




000
FXUS65 KLKN 260933
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
233 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TOMORROW. EXPECTING THE RIDGE TO RETURN BY WEEKS END
RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE EIGHTIES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER WASHINGTON AND IDAHO
STATE...WITH A TROF EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECTING LIFT
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROF. WITH THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...IT SHOULD BE EASILY GET CONVECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE GFS40 AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND EVEN IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH ROBUST CAPES AND -1 TO -2 LIS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA. SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE...EVERY MODEL HAS BEEN PINGING INTO
ANOTHER PRECIP SHIELD THAT PIVOTS OVER NE NV...WITH ELKO COUNTY
AGAIN GETTING THE LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF. CHANGING GEARS...WEDNESDAY
...THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME DECENT SHEAR TO NORTHERN NV...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OVER SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
OVER THE SILVER STATE...BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE AXIS OF AN EXITING
TROUGH WILL SKIP THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT WHITE PINE AND EASTERN
ELKO COUNTIES.

THURSDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN IN
A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD BRING A SPELL OF DRY
WEATHER. BY SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REACH INTO THE 80S.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE ENTERING THE EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL REGION. DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OF THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH INTO THE 80S WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING
DOWN A BIT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/92/92





000
FXUS65 KLKN 260933
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
233 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TOMORROW. EXPECTING THE RIDGE TO RETURN BY WEEKS END
RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE EIGHTIES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER WASHINGTON AND IDAHO
STATE...WITH A TROF EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECTING LIFT
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROF. WITH THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...IT SHOULD BE EASILY GET CONVECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE GFS40 AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND EVEN IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH ROBUST CAPES AND -1 TO -2 LIS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA. SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE...EVERY MODEL HAS BEEN PINGING INTO
ANOTHER PRECIP SHIELD THAT PIVOTS OVER NE NV...WITH ELKO COUNTY
AGAIN GETTING THE LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF. CHANGING GEARS...WEDNESDAY
...THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME DECENT SHEAR TO NORTHERN NV...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OVER SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
OVER THE SILVER STATE...BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE AXIS OF AN EXITING
TROUGH WILL SKIP THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT WHITE PINE AND EASTERN
ELKO COUNTIES.

THURSDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN IN
A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD BRING A SPELL OF DRY
WEATHER. BY SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REACH INTO THE 80S.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE ENTERING THE EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL REGION. DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OF THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH INTO THE 80S WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING
DOWN A BIT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/92/92




000
FXUS65 KLKN 260933
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
233 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TOMORROW. EXPECTING THE RIDGE TO RETURN BY WEEKS END
RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE EIGHTIES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER WASHINGTON AND IDAHO
STATE...WITH A TROF EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECTING LIFT
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROF. WITH THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...IT SHOULD BE EASILY GET CONVECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE GFS40 AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND EVEN IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH ROBUST CAPES AND -1 TO -2 LIS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA. SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE...EVERY MODEL HAS BEEN PINGING INTO
ANOTHER PRECIP SHIELD THAT PIVOTS OVER NE NV...WITH ELKO COUNTY
AGAIN GETTING THE LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF. CHANGING GEARS...WEDNESDAY
...THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME DECENT SHEAR TO NORTHERN NV...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OVER SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
OVER THE SILVER STATE...BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE AXIS OF AN EXITING
TROUGH WILL SKIP THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT WHITE PINE AND EASTERN
ELKO COUNTIES.

THURSDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN IN
A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD BRING A SPELL OF DRY
WEATHER. BY SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WILL
REACH INTO THE 80S.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE ENTERING THE EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL REGION. DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OF THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH INTO THE 80S WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING
DOWN A BIT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/92/92





000
FXUS65 KLKN 252100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NEVADA MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE, PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PERSISTENT WET
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LOW SINKING SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON, CLEARLY
SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER WASHINGTON STATE. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
INCOMING TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER NW NEVADA, AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE REDEVELOPED YET AGAIN. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH SUNSET, WITH THE MORE ENHANCED
COVERAGE AND STORM INTENSITY STILL EXPECTED TO FAVOR AREAS NORTH
OF I-80. INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL, WITH CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, BUT SHEAR SO FAR IS WEAK, AND STORMS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO REMAIN ORGANIZED. INCOMING DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE
PAC NW TROUGH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL, LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND THE OCCASIONAL FUNNEL CLOUD.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUING TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NEVADA. KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS AGAIN MILD IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY...PAC NW UPPER LOW STILL DOESN`T MOVE, WITH ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPING IT STATIONARY OVER WASHINGTON. TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED WEAK VORT MAXES WILL RESIDE OVER NEVADA, WITH ALL MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY FORECASTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND
AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF
THE CWA. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS ALL ZONES,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND NEAR TONOPAH, WHERE
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL SUPPORT
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. WITH SATURATED SOILS AND FULL
STREAMS, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

WEDNESDAY...STILL WET. PAC NW LOW STILL RELUCTANT TO MOVE, WITH
BOTH 12Z GFS/ECMWF KEEPING IT MEANDERING OVER IDAHO. FORCING ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL AGAIN BE
STRONG, WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA. AGAIN, HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, WITH THE LEAST
COVERAGE ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN ON TUESDAY, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY FAVORING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.
TURNER


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE
TROF AXIS INTO EASTERN NV OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NV. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER TO THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA AND EC FURTHER SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NV. THUS WILL LEAVE DAY 7 DRY AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. JH

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
THE TAF SITES THE ENSUING 24HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87





000
FXUS65 KLKN 251830
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1130 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NEVADA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...GIVEN RADAR TRENDS, AND BASED ON PERSISTENCE, INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY. SOME STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
STRONG, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY FLOODING RAINFALL. SMALL HAIL AND
FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT OF A
CONFIRMED FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR JACKPOT THIS HOUR.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 239 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A BREAK OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...BIT OF A COMPLICATED PATTERN OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA THIS MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENT WITH A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER COLORADO AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A DINKY LITTLE SHORT RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO THIS MORNING
OVER NEVADA IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOMENT. THE COLORADO
LOW WILL FILL AND DRIFT EAST ALLOWING THE BC LOW TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY.DEEP LAYER RH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER MOSTLY NORTHERN NEVADA BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE UTTERLY
DRIPPING. THERE IS MUD EVERYWHERE. EXPECTING THIS MICROLAYER RH TO
ENABLE MORE CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. IN
SHORT...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT`S
GETTING HARD TO FIND NEW THINGS TO SAY IN INTERESTING WAYS.
OH...ONE ADDITION. WITH CLEARING SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
THIS MORNING...MOSTLY IN STREAM VALLEYS AND PLACES THAT HAVE
RECEIVED A LOT OF RECENT RAINS. TEMPS STAY ABOUT WHERE THEY`VE
BEEN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. SOME LOCAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY. SMALL STREAMS WILL RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAY EXCEED BANKFULL A LITTLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD
COMMENCES WITH AN H5 LOW NEAR THE IDAHO/WASHINGTON BORDER AND A TROF
EXTENDING INTO NEVADA. EXPECTING THE TROF TO DIG DEEPER INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...ENABLING 700 MB AND 500 MB TEMPS TO DROP...POSSIBLY
BRINGING SNOW TO IDAHO AND NE NEVADA...SPECIFICALLY THE HIGHEST
PEAKS IN THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA AND THE RUBIES...IN ADDITION
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS. AS THE TROF AXIS
MOVES INTO EASTERN NV WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM
THE WEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
LKN CWA. EXPECTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SILVER STATE AS THE
WEEK UNFOLDS...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY. THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN ELKO AND WINNEMUCCA WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
LAST DAY IN MAY.  APPARENTLY...MAY CAME IN LIKE A LION AND WILL GO
OUT LIKE A LAMB.

AVIATION...MORE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE TAF SITES THE ENSUING 24HR PERIOD. REMAIN OVER THE TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. THE ASOS AT KEKO HAS MEASURED PRECIP 9 DAYS IN A ROW...KWMC
HAS MEASURED PRECIP 10 DAYS IN A ROW...KELY HAS MEASURED PRECIP 6
DAYS IN A ROW AND KTPH HAS MEASURED PRECIP 4 DAYS IN A ROW. EXPECT
THIS WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 251830
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1130 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NEVADA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...GIVEN RADAR TRENDS, AND BASED ON PERSISTENCE, INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY. SOME STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
STRONG, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY FLOODING RAINFALL. SMALL HAIL AND
FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT OF A
CONFIRMED FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR JACKPOT THIS HOUR.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 239 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A BREAK OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...BIT OF A COMPLICATED PATTERN OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA THIS MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENT WITH A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER COLORADO AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A DINKY LITTLE SHORT RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO THIS MORNING
OVER NEVADA IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOMENT. THE COLORADO
LOW WILL FILL AND DRIFT EAST ALLOWING THE BC LOW TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY.DEEP LAYER RH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER MOSTLY NORTHERN NEVADA BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE UTTERLY
DRIPPING. THERE IS MUD EVERYWHERE. EXPECTING THIS MICROLAYER RH TO
ENABLE MORE CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. IN
SHORT...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT`S
GETTING HARD TO FIND NEW THINGS TO SAY IN INTERESTING WAYS.
OH...ONE ADDITION. WITH CLEARING SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
THIS MORNING...MOSTLY IN STREAM VALLEYS AND PLACES THAT HAVE
RECEIVED A LOT OF RECENT RAINS. TEMPS STAY ABOUT WHERE THEY`VE
BEEN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. SOME LOCAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY. SMALL STREAMS WILL RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAY EXCEED BANKFULL A LITTLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD
COMMENCES WITH AN H5 LOW NEAR THE IDAHO/WASHINGTON BORDER AND A TROF
EXTENDING INTO NEVADA. EXPECTING THE TROF TO DIG DEEPER INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...ENABLING 700 MB AND 500 MB TEMPS TO DROP...POSSIBLY
BRINGING SNOW TO IDAHO AND NE NEVADA...SPECIFICALLY THE HIGHEST
PEAKS IN THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA AND THE RUBIES...IN ADDITION
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS. AS THE TROF AXIS
MOVES INTO EASTERN NV WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM
THE WEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
LKN CWA. EXPECTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SILVER STATE AS THE
WEEK UNFOLDS...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY. THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN ELKO AND WINNEMUCCA WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
LAST DAY IN MAY.  APPARENTLY...MAY CAME IN LIKE A LION AND WILL GO
OUT LIKE A LAMB.

AVIATION...MORE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE TAF SITES THE ENSUING 24HR PERIOD. REMAIN OVER THE TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. THE ASOS AT KEKO HAS MEASURED PRECIP 9 DAYS IN A ROW...KWMC
HAS MEASURED PRECIP 10 DAYS IN A ROW...KELY HAS MEASURED PRECIP 6
DAYS IN A ROW AND KTPH HAS MEASURED PRECIP 4 DAYS IN A ROW. EXPECT
THIS WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 250939
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
239 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BREAK OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...BIT OF A COMPLICATED PATTERN OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA THIS MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENT WITH A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER COLORADO AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A DINKY LITTLE SHORT RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO THIS MORNING
OVER NEVADA IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOMENT. THE COLORADO
LOW WILL FILL AND DRIFT EAST ALLOWING THE BC LOW TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY.DEEP LAYER RH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER MOSTLY NORTHERN NEVADA BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE UTTERLY
DRIPPING. THERE IS MUD EVERYWHERE. EXPECTING THIS MICROLAYER RH TO
ENABLE MORE CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. IN
SHORT...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT`S
GETTING HARD TO FIND NEW THINGS TO SAY IN INTERESTING WAYS.
OH...ONE ADDITION. WITH CLEARING SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
THIS MORNING...MOSTLY IN STREAM VALLEYS AND PLACES THAT HAVE
RECEIVED A LOT OF RECENT RAINS. TEMPS STAY ABOUT WHERE THEY`VE
BEEN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. SOME LOCAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY. SMALL STREAMS WILL RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAY EXCEED BANKFULL A LITTLE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD
COMMENCES WITH AN H5 LOW NEAR THE IDAHO/WASHINGTON BORDER AND A TROF
EXTENDING INTO NEVADA. EXPECTING THE TROF TO DIG DEEPER INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...ENABLING 700 MB AND 500 MB TEMPS TO DROP...POSSIBLY
BRINGING SNOW TO IDAHO AND NE NEVADA...SPECIFICALLY THE HIGHEST
PEAKS IN THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA AND THE RUBIES...IN ADDITION
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS. AS THE TROF AXIS
MOVES INTO EASTERN NV WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM
THE WEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
LKN CWA. EXPECTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SILVER STATE AS THE
WEEK UNFOLDS...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY. THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN ELKO AND WINNEMUCCA WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
LAST DAY IN MAY.  APPARENTLY...MAY CAME IN LIKE A LION AND WILL GO
OUT LIKE A LAMB.


&&

.AVIATION...MORE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE TAF SITES THE ENSUING 24HR PERIOD. REMAIN OVER THE TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. THE ASOS AT KEKO HAS MEASURED PRECIP 9 DAYS IN A ROW...KWMC
HAS MEASURED PRECIP 10 DAYS IN A ROW...KELY HAS MEASURED PRECIP 6
DAYS IN A ROW AND KTPH HAS MEASURED PRECIP 4 DAYS IN A ROW. EXPECT
THIS WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/97/97





000
FXUS65 KLKN 250939
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
239 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BREAK OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...BIT OF A COMPLICATED PATTERN OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA THIS MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENT WITH A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER COLORADO AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A DINKY LITTLE SHORT RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO THIS MORNING
OVER NEVADA IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOMENT. THE COLORADO
LOW WILL FILL AND DRIFT EAST ALLOWING THE BC LOW TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY.DEEP LAYER RH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER MOSTLY NORTHERN NEVADA BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE UTTERLY
DRIPPING. THERE IS MUD EVERYWHERE. EXPECTING THIS MICROLAYER RH TO
ENABLE MORE CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. IN
SHORT...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT`S
GETTING HARD TO FIND NEW THINGS TO SAY IN INTERESTING WAYS.
OH...ONE ADDITION. WITH CLEARING SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
THIS MORNING...MOSTLY IN STREAM VALLEYS AND PLACES THAT HAVE
RECEIVED A LOT OF RECENT RAINS. TEMPS STAY ABOUT WHERE THEY`VE
BEEN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. SOME LOCAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY. SMALL STREAMS WILL RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAY EXCEED BANKFULL A LITTLE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD
COMMENCES WITH AN H5 LOW NEAR THE IDAHO/WASHINGTON BORDER AND A TROF
EXTENDING INTO NEVADA. EXPECTING THE TROF TO DIG DEEPER INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...ENABLING 700 MB AND 500 MB TEMPS TO DROP...POSSIBLY
BRINGING SNOW TO IDAHO AND NE NEVADA...SPECIFICALLY THE HIGHEST
PEAKS IN THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA AND THE RUBIES...IN ADDITION
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS. AS THE TROF AXIS
MOVES INTO EASTERN NV WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM
THE WEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
LKN CWA. EXPECTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SILVER STATE AS THE
WEEK UNFOLDS...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY. THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN ELKO AND WINNEMUCCA WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
LAST DAY IN MAY.  APPARENTLY...MAY CAME IN LIKE A LION AND WILL GO
OUT LIKE A LAMB.


&&

.AVIATION...MORE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE TAF SITES THE ENSUING 24HR PERIOD. REMAIN OVER THE TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. THE ASOS AT KEKO HAS MEASURED PRECIP 9 DAYS IN A ROW...KWMC
HAS MEASURED PRECIP 10 DAYS IN A ROW...KELY HAS MEASURED PRECIP 6
DAYS IN A ROW AND KTPH HAS MEASURED PRECIP 4 DAYS IN A ROW. EXPECT
THIS WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/97/97




000
FXUS65 KLKN 242100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BREAK OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AND THE RAIN STILL CONTINUES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. 563 DM UPPER LOW SITTING AND SPINNING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, BLOCKED BY
STRONG EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. AS SUCH, THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
CONVEYOR BELT HAS REACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. DID AN UPDATE TO INCREASE COVERAGE TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS
THROUGH AT LEAST 5 PM. ONCE AGAIN TODAY, SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN
STRONG, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING QUITE COMMON. SOILS ARE GROWING
MORE SATURATED WITH WATER SEEPING INTO SOME BASEMENTS. STORM THAT
PASSED OVER ELKO THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED A CONFIRMED FUNNEL CLOUD.
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 5 PM, WITH SHOWER
COVERAGE DECREASING RAPIDLY.

TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES INTO NEVADA, ENDING THE RAIN
AND RESULTING IN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER ARE
INCREDIBLY MOIST, SO FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO MENTION AREAS OF
RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY MORNING.

MEMORIAL DAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK OF DRY
WEATHER FOR ALL ZONES DURING THE MORNING HOURS, FROM 5-11 AM, AND
KEPT THAT PERIOD DRY FOR MOST ZONES. PATTERN CHANGE STILL EXPECTED
ON MONDAY, AS COLORADO LOW FINALLY DEPARTS AWAY FROM NEVADA, AND A
NEW TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW. FLOW OVER NEVADA BECOMES MORE
ZONAL, AS THE NEW TROUGH APPROACHES NW NEVADA BY 5 PM. LIFT FROM
THIS TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA, MAINLY NORTH OF I-80, MONDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM
FORECASTS WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY, WITH
LIFTED INDEX OF -2C TO -4C, AND CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG, SO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DIFFERENCE IS, CONVECTION SHOULD BE
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ON MEMORIAL DAY, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-80, AND IT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...UPPER LOW MEANDERS IN THE PACIFIC NW, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH
NEVADA. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MODEL QPF FIELDS, AND GIVEN HOW
EASY IS HAS BEEN TO RAIN LATELY, INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND NEAR TONOPAH. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COMBINATION WILL ENCOURAGE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN EASTERN
NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THICKNESS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE
IDENTICAL, SO EXPECT NO TEMPERATURE CHANGE TUESDAY COMPARED TO
MONDAY`S READINGS.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. TROF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN NV WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NV. RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE
CWA THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87





000
FXUS65 KLKN 242100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BREAK OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AND THE RAIN STILL CONTINUES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. 563 DM UPPER LOW SITTING AND SPINNING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, BLOCKED BY
STRONG EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. AS SUCH, THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
CONVEYOR BELT HAS REACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. DID AN UPDATE TO INCREASE COVERAGE TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS
THROUGH AT LEAST 5 PM. ONCE AGAIN TODAY, SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN
STRONG, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING QUITE COMMON. SOILS ARE GROWING
MORE SATURATED WITH WATER SEEPING INTO SOME BASEMENTS. STORM THAT
PASSED OVER ELKO THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED A CONFIRMED FUNNEL CLOUD.
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 5 PM, WITH SHOWER
COVERAGE DECREASING RAPIDLY.

TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES INTO NEVADA, ENDING THE RAIN
AND RESULTING IN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER ARE
INCREDIBLY MOIST, SO FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO MENTION AREAS OF
RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY MORNING.

MEMORIAL DAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK OF DRY
WEATHER FOR ALL ZONES DURING THE MORNING HOURS, FROM 5-11 AM, AND
KEPT THAT PERIOD DRY FOR MOST ZONES. PATTERN CHANGE STILL EXPECTED
ON MONDAY, AS COLORADO LOW FINALLY DEPARTS AWAY FROM NEVADA, AND A
NEW TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW. FLOW OVER NEVADA BECOMES MORE
ZONAL, AS THE NEW TROUGH APPROACHES NW NEVADA BY 5 PM. LIFT FROM
THIS TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA, MAINLY NORTH OF I-80, MONDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM
FORECASTS WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY, WITH
LIFTED INDEX OF -2C TO -4C, AND CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG, SO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DIFFERENCE IS, CONVECTION SHOULD BE
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ON MEMORIAL DAY, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-80, AND IT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...UPPER LOW MEANDERS IN THE PACIFIC NW, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH
NEVADA. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MODEL QPF FIELDS, AND GIVEN HOW
EASY IS HAS BEEN TO RAIN LATELY, INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND NEAR TONOPAH. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COMBINATION WILL ENCOURAGE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN EASTERN
NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THICKNESS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE
IDENTICAL, SO EXPECT NO TEMPERATURE CHANGE TUESDAY COMPARED TO
MONDAY`S READINGS.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. TROF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN NV WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NV. RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE
CWA THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87




000
FXUS65 KLKN 241614
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
914 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BREAK OF DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE WET 12Z GFS SOLUTION,
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON TO RAISE SHOWER COVERAGE TO
NUMEROUS/LIKELY, AND RAISED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS ELKO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH 12Z NAM FAVORING ALONG AND EAST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 241 AM /

SYNOPSIS...MORE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY AND ON MEMORIAL DAY.
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE GREAT BASIN.

SHORT TERM...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES AN H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
COLORADO AND MUCH OF NEVADA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE IS A SECONDARY LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN WRAPPED AROUND
THE LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE PW ANOMALIES ACROSS
THE LKN CWA. THE GFS40 AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40S AND EVEN IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. SENSIBLE
WEATHER- WISE...EVERY MODEL HAS BEEN SLINGING QPF INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE MODELS PING INTO SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL IGNITE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...IN
ADDITION TO RAIN SHOWERS. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE OTHER THAN ADDING AREAS OF FOG TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY FOR
MONDAY MORNING. IMPACTS-WISE...THE RIVERS ARE BEGINNING TO SWELL
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON STILL ANOTHER FURTHER ADDITIONAL TROUGH IMPACTING
NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...QUICK SHORT RIDGING AND DRYING MOVE
IN...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ON POPS IN THAT DISTANT TROUGH...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID WEEK AND
AIR MASS DRIES...A QUICK DRAMATIC WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR...EVEN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIDGY CLOUDS NEXT WEEKEND.

INTERESTING NOTE...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE A TROPICAL CLOSED
CIRCULATION FORMING SUNDAY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR AND
INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE END OF 240 HOURS. THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CONUS
WEST COAST. THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS AN AREA OF POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL AREA. IF THIS DEVELOPS...IF IT DEVELOPS IN
THE AREA SHOWN...IF IT DEVELOPS IN THE AREA SHOWN AND MATCHES THE
GFS...IT COULD PUMP TROPICAL RH INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AT LEAST
NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 241614
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
914 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BREAK OF DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE WET 12Z GFS SOLUTION,
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON TO RAISE SHOWER COVERAGE TO
NUMEROUS/LIKELY, AND RAISED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS ELKO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH 12Z NAM FAVORING ALONG AND EAST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 241 AM /

SYNOPSIS...MORE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY AND ON MEMORIAL DAY.
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE GREAT BASIN.

SHORT TERM...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES AN H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
COLORADO AND MUCH OF NEVADA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE IS A SECONDARY LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN WRAPPED AROUND
THE LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE PW ANOMALIES ACROSS
THE LKN CWA. THE GFS40 AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40S AND EVEN IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. SENSIBLE
WEATHER- WISE...EVERY MODEL HAS BEEN SLINGING QPF INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE MODELS PING INTO SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL IGNITE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...IN
ADDITION TO RAIN SHOWERS. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE OTHER THAN ADDING AREAS OF FOG TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY FOR
MONDAY MORNING. IMPACTS-WISE...THE RIVERS ARE BEGINNING TO SWELL
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON STILL ANOTHER FURTHER ADDITIONAL TROUGH IMPACTING
NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...QUICK SHORT RIDGING AND DRYING MOVE
IN...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ON POPS IN THAT DISTANT TROUGH...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID WEEK AND
AIR MASS DRIES...A QUICK DRAMATIC WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR...EVEN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIDGY CLOUDS NEXT WEEKEND.

INTERESTING NOTE...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE A TROPICAL CLOSED
CIRCULATION FORMING SUNDAY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR AND
INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE END OF 240 HOURS. THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CONUS
WEST COAST. THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS AN AREA OF POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL AREA. IF THIS DEVELOPS...IF IT DEVELOPS IN
THE AREA SHOWN...IF IT DEVELOPS IN THE AREA SHOWN AND MATCHES THE
GFS...IT COULD PUMP TROPICAL RH INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AT LEAST
NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 241614
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
914 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BREAK OF DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE WET 12Z GFS SOLUTION,
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON TO RAISE SHOWER COVERAGE TO
NUMEROUS/LIKELY, AND RAISED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS ELKO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH 12Z NAM FAVORING ALONG AND EAST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 241 AM /

SYNOPSIS...MORE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY AND ON MEMORIAL DAY.
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE GREAT BASIN.

SHORT TERM...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES AN H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
COLORADO AND MUCH OF NEVADA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE IS A SECONDARY LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN WRAPPED AROUND
THE LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE PW ANOMALIES ACROSS
THE LKN CWA. THE GFS40 AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40S AND EVEN IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. SENSIBLE
WEATHER- WISE...EVERY MODEL HAS BEEN SLINGING QPF INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE MODELS PING INTO SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL IGNITE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...IN
ADDITION TO RAIN SHOWERS. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE OTHER THAN ADDING AREAS OF FOG TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY FOR
MONDAY MORNING. IMPACTS-WISE...THE RIVERS ARE BEGINNING TO SWELL
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON STILL ANOTHER FURTHER ADDITIONAL TROUGH IMPACTING
NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...QUICK SHORT RIDGING AND DRYING MOVE
IN...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ON POPS IN THAT DISTANT TROUGH...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID WEEK AND
AIR MASS DRIES...A QUICK DRAMATIC WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR...EVEN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIDGY CLOUDS NEXT WEEKEND.

INTERESTING NOTE...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE A TROPICAL CLOSED
CIRCULATION FORMING SUNDAY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR AND
INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE END OF 240 HOURS. THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CONUS
WEST COAST. THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS AN AREA OF POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL AREA. IF THIS DEVELOPS...IF IT DEVELOPS IN
THE AREA SHOWN...IF IT DEVELOPS IN THE AREA SHOWN AND MATCHES THE
GFS...IT COULD PUMP TROPICAL RH INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AT LEAST
NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 241614
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
914 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BREAK OF DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE WET 12Z GFS SOLUTION,
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON TO RAISE SHOWER COVERAGE TO
NUMEROUS/LIKELY, AND RAISED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS ELKO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH 12Z NAM FAVORING ALONG AND EAST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 241 AM /

SYNOPSIS...MORE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY AND ON MEMORIAL DAY.
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE GREAT BASIN.

SHORT TERM...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES AN H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
COLORADO AND MUCH OF NEVADA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE IS A SECONDARY LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN WRAPPED AROUND
THE LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE PW ANOMALIES ACROSS
THE LKN CWA. THE GFS40 AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40S AND EVEN IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. SENSIBLE
WEATHER- WISE...EVERY MODEL HAS BEEN SLINGING QPF INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE MODELS PING INTO SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL IGNITE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...IN
ADDITION TO RAIN SHOWERS. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE OTHER THAN ADDING AREAS OF FOG TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY FOR
MONDAY MORNING. IMPACTS-WISE...THE RIVERS ARE BEGINNING TO SWELL
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON STILL ANOTHER FURTHER ADDITIONAL TROUGH IMPACTING
NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...QUICK SHORT RIDGING AND DRYING MOVE
IN...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ON POPS IN THAT DISTANT TROUGH...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID WEEK AND
AIR MASS DRIES...A QUICK DRAMATIC WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR...EVEN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIDGY CLOUDS NEXT WEEKEND.

INTERESTING NOTE...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE A TROPICAL CLOSED
CIRCULATION FORMING SUNDAY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR AND
INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE END OF 240 HOURS. THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CONUS
WEST COAST. THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS AN AREA OF POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL AREA. IF THIS DEVELOPS...IF IT DEVELOPS IN
THE AREA SHOWN...IF IT DEVELOPS IN THE AREA SHOWN AND MATCHES THE
GFS...IT COULD PUMP TROPICAL RH INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AT LEAST
NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 240941
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
241 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY AND ON MEMORIAL DAY.
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES AN H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
COLORADO AND MUCH OF NEVADA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE IS A SECONDARY LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN WRAPPED AROUND
THE LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE PW ANOMALIES ACROSS
THE LKN CWA. THE GFS40 AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40S AND EVEN IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. SENSIBLE
WEATHER- WISE...EVERY MODEL HAS BEEN SLINGING QPF INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE MODELS PING INTO SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL IGNITE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...IN
ADDITION TO RAIN SHOWERS. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE OTHER THAN ADDING AREAS OF FOG TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY FOR
MONDAY MORNING. IMPACTS-WISE...THE RIVERS ARE BEGINNING TO SWELL
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.



.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON STILL ANOTHER FURTHER ADDITIONAL TROUGH IMPACTING
NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...QUICK SHORT RIDGING AND DRYING MOVE
IN...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ON POPS IN THAT DISTANT TROUGH...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID WEEK AND
AIR MASS DRIES...A QUICK DRAMATIC WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR...EVEN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIDGY CLOUDS NEXT WEEKEND.

INTERESTING NOTE...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE A TROPICAL CLOSED
CIRCULATION FORMING SUNDAY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR AND
INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE END OF 240 HOURS. THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CONUS
WEST COAST. THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS AN AREA OF POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL AREA. IF THIS DEVELOPS...IF IT DEVELOPS IN
THE AREA SHOWN...IF IT DEVELOPS IN THE AREA SHOWN AND MATCHES THE
GFS...IT COULD PUMP TROPICAL RH INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AT LEAST
NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/98/98





000
FXUS65 KLKN 240941
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
241 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY AND ON MEMORIAL DAY.
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES AN H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
COLORADO AND MUCH OF NEVADA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE IS A SECONDARY LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN WRAPPED AROUND
THE LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE PW ANOMALIES ACROSS
THE LKN CWA. THE GFS40 AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40S AND EVEN IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. SENSIBLE
WEATHER- WISE...EVERY MODEL HAS BEEN SLINGING QPF INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE MODELS PING INTO SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL IGNITE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...IN
ADDITION TO RAIN SHOWERS. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE OTHER THAN ADDING AREAS OF FOG TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY FOR
MONDAY MORNING. IMPACTS-WISE...THE RIVERS ARE BEGINNING TO SWELL
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.



.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON STILL ANOTHER FURTHER ADDITIONAL TROUGH IMPACTING
NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...QUICK SHORT RIDGING AND DRYING MOVE
IN...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ON POPS IN THAT DISTANT TROUGH...SO
HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID WEEK AND
AIR MASS DRIES...A QUICK DRAMATIC WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR...EVEN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIDGY CLOUDS NEXT WEEKEND.

INTERESTING NOTE...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE A TROPICAL CLOSED
CIRCULATION FORMING SUNDAY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR AND
INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE END OF 240 HOURS. THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CONUS
WEST COAST. THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS AN AREA OF POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL AREA. IF THIS DEVELOPS...IF IT DEVELOPS IN
THE AREA SHOWN...IF IT DEVELOPS IN THE AREA SHOWN AND MATCHES THE
GFS...IT COULD PUMP TROPICAL RH INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AT LEAST
NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/98/98




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