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000
FXUS65 KLKN 020910
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COOLING TREND ARRIVES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER. SATURDAY IS FORECASTED TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND THURSDAY.

A WINDY AND WARM WEDNESDAY ON TAP FOR NEVADA. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS, IN THE UPPER
80S. STRONG TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS
AFTERNOON, AND STRONG SW WINDS WILL RESULT. MODELS FORECAST
700 MB WINDS OF 20-25 KTS FOR ALL ZONES, SO GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
WILL BE COMMON, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE DANGER OF FIRE SPREAD WILL INCREASE SHARPLY TODAY
WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND DRY AIR. INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 00Z NAM PROGS A
POCKET OF INSTABILITY ACROSS SE ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LIFTED INDEX AS LOW AS -3C. MOISTURE IS VERY
SKIMPY, WITH PW OF ONLY 0.50-0.60 INCH SE OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS,
BUT STILL AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS IS LIKELY WITH SOME DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...WINDY AND COOLER. LARGE STRONG TROUGH CONTINUES TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW, WITH HEIGHTS/THICKNESS FALLING
APPRECIABLY ACROSS NEVADA. THE COOLING TREND BEGINS, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY`S READINGS.
STRONGEST SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS SE ZONES/WHITE PINE COUNTY,
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH, COURTESY OF A 996 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
WENDOVER AT 5 PM. MAV/MET GUIDANCE AGREE WITH 26 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT ELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS INCREASING LIFT ACTS ON
MARGINAL MOISTURE. TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS PRETTY GOOD ON
DEPICTING THE FULL LATITUDE AUTUMN-LIKE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
WEST COAST AND DIGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. CENTER OF TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND MOVE ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...KEY DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS POP UP...RELATIVELY MINOR BUT THEY DO MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
MADE BIGGEST NUMBER OF TWEAKS UP THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEREAFTER LARGELY LEFT PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALONE.

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE BIG DROP IN TEMPS AT 700 MB ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA ESPECIALLY. COOLING TREND AT ALL PLACES IN THE ELKO
FORECAST AREA...BUT HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES WILL BE DOWNRIGHT
CHILLY WITH HIGHS EVEN DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S AT LOW VALLEYS
SPOTS...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS.

AND...WAIT FOR IT...WITH 7OO MB TEMPS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS RUNS TO
HIT -2C...AND IN THE THIS LATEST RUN...WAIT FOR IT....-4C TO -4.5C
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...FELT JUSTIFIED IN ADDING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 8500 FEET. THESE WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
SATURDAY LATER AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY MID MORNING AND ONLY IN PLACES
LIKE THE HIGHER INDEPENDENCE RANGE...RUBIES/EAST HUMBOLDTS...AND
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AND ENVIRONS. BOTTOM LINE...SOME HIGHER PEAKS
MAY GET AN INCH STORM TOTAL...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE ON
THE RIDGES WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.

OTHER ISSUE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MIN TEMPS
IN POPULATED AREAS DROPPING TO FREEZING AND POSSIBLY BELOW. NOT
READY FOR A FREEZE WARNING THIS FAR OUT...BUT WILL LIKELY ISSUED A
HWO OR SPS MENTIONING IT.

WINDS WILL NATURALLY PICK UP AS UPPER GRADIENT TRANSFERS DOWN BUT AT
THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT A WIND "EVENT".

IT`S STILL WAY EARLY SEPTEMBER....AND FALL IS HERE. BB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KELY COULD SEE VCTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL WIND/RH EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE APPROPRIATE FWZ WITH CRITICAL FUELS. AFTER 11 AM,
SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH, COMBINING
WITH MIN RH OF 8-14%.

INTRODUCED CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA, NAMELY EASTERN ELKO AND MUCH OF WHITE PINE
COUNTIES. COVERAGE AND ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIMITED, BUT
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
RUBY MOUNTAINS.

THURSDAY...SW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS ALL FWZ, AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES NW OF NEVADA ACROSS OREGON DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
FWZ. MUCH STRONGER WINDS ACROSS FWZ 455/457, 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. MIN RH ACROSS FWZ 457 OF 8-12%, SO RED FLAG WARNING
LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS FWZ 455,
WHITE PINE COUNTY, WHERE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL. TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

&&

$$

99/98/98/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 020910
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COOLING TREND ARRIVES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER. SATURDAY IS FORECASTED TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND THURSDAY.

A WINDY AND WARM WEDNESDAY ON TAP FOR NEVADA. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS, IN THE UPPER
80S. STRONG TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS
AFTERNOON, AND STRONG SW WINDS WILL RESULT. MODELS FORECAST
700 MB WINDS OF 20-25 KTS FOR ALL ZONES, SO GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
WILL BE COMMON, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE DANGER OF FIRE SPREAD WILL INCREASE SHARPLY TODAY
WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND DRY AIR. INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 00Z NAM PROGS A
POCKET OF INSTABILITY ACROSS SE ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LIFTED INDEX AS LOW AS -3C. MOISTURE IS VERY
SKIMPY, WITH PW OF ONLY 0.50-0.60 INCH SE OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS,
BUT STILL AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS IS LIKELY WITH SOME DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...WINDY AND COOLER. LARGE STRONG TROUGH CONTINUES TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW, WITH HEIGHTS/THICKNESS FALLING
APPRECIABLY ACROSS NEVADA. THE COOLING TREND BEGINS, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY`S READINGS.
STRONGEST SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS SE ZONES/WHITE PINE COUNTY,
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH, COURTESY OF A 996 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
WENDOVER AT 5 PM. MAV/MET GUIDANCE AGREE WITH 26 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT ELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS INCREASING LIFT ACTS ON
MARGINAL MOISTURE. TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS PRETTY GOOD ON
DEPICTING THE FULL LATITUDE AUTUMN-LIKE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
WEST COAST AND DIGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. CENTER OF TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND MOVE ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...KEY DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS POP UP...RELATIVELY MINOR BUT THEY DO MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
MADE BIGGEST NUMBER OF TWEAKS UP THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEREAFTER LARGELY LEFT PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALONE.

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE BIG DROP IN TEMPS AT 700 MB ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA ESPECIALLY. COOLING TREND AT ALL PLACES IN THE ELKO
FORECAST AREA...BUT HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES WILL BE DOWNRIGHT
CHILLY WITH HIGHS EVEN DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S AT LOW VALLEYS
SPOTS...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS.

AND...WAIT FOR IT...WITH 7OO MB TEMPS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS RUNS TO
HIT -2C...AND IN THE THIS LATEST RUN...WAIT FOR IT....-4C TO -4.5C
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...FELT JUSTIFIED IN ADDING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 8500 FEET. THESE WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
SATURDAY LATER AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY MID MORNING AND ONLY IN PLACES
LIKE THE HIGHER INDEPENDENCE RANGE...RUBIES/EAST HUMBOLDTS...AND
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AND ENVIRONS. BOTTOM LINE...SOME HIGHER PEAKS
MAY GET AN INCH STORM TOTAL...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE ON
THE RIDGES WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.

OTHER ISSUE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MIN TEMPS
IN POPULATED AREAS DROPPING TO FREEZING AND POSSIBLY BELOW. NOT
READY FOR A FREEZE WARNING THIS FAR OUT...BUT WILL LIKELY ISSUED A
HWO OR SPS MENTIONING IT.

WINDS WILL NATURALLY PICK UP AS UPPER GRADIENT TRANSFERS DOWN BUT AT
THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT A WIND "EVENT".

IT`S STILL WAY EARLY SEPTEMBER....AND FALL IS HERE. BB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KELY COULD SEE VCTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL WIND/RH EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE APPROPRIATE FWZ WITH CRITICAL FUELS. AFTER 11 AM,
SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH, COMBINING
WITH MIN RH OF 8-14%.

INTRODUCED CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA, NAMELY EASTERN ELKO AND MUCH OF WHITE PINE
COUNTIES. COVERAGE AND ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIMITED, BUT
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
RUBY MOUNTAINS.

THURSDAY...SW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS ALL FWZ, AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES NW OF NEVADA ACROSS OREGON DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
FWZ. MUCH STRONGER WINDS ACROSS FWZ 455/457, 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. MIN RH ACROSS FWZ 457 OF 8-12%, SO RED FLAG WARNING
LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS FWZ 455,
WHITE PINE COUNTY, WHERE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL. TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

&&

$$

99/98/98/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 012219
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
319 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER
BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL NV. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE THEN BEGIN A COOLING
TREND ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A TROUGH PROGGED TO
DROP DOWN THE OREGON COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH EXPECT SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS...GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING LOWER. BY
FRIDAY SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN
OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY...H7 TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO AROUND -4C WITH
SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 7500 FEET. WHILE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH...DISCREPANCIES
REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
MODELS BOTH KEEP THE BULK OF THE TROUGHS MOISTURE NORTH OF
NEVADA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER...BRING VALLEY RAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO MOST OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES ON
SATURDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH EXITING NORTHEAST INTO
IDAHO SATURDAY EVENING...LEAVING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST ADVISORY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SKIES SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AREAS OF ELKO COUNTY TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
DIP INTO THE 20S IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IN THE DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. WARMER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. MAY SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA BY NEXT TUESDAY. FOR NOW
INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS NOW SHOW PRECIPITATION REACHING UP
TO GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH MIN RH FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL BRING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL ZONES
EXCEPT 454 AND 455 WHERE FUELS ARE ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY IN ZONE 457.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
ON FRIDAY BUT COULD COME CLOSE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF ZONE
457.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50.

&&

$$

91/96/96/91





000
FXUS65 KLKN 012219
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
319 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER
BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL NV. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE THEN BEGIN A COOLING
TREND ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A TROUGH PROGGED TO
DROP DOWN THE OREGON COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH EXPECT SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS...GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING LOWER. BY
FRIDAY SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN
OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY...H7 TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO AROUND -4C WITH
SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 7500 FEET. WHILE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH...DISCREPANCIES
REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
MODELS BOTH KEEP THE BULK OF THE TROUGHS MOISTURE NORTH OF
NEVADA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER...BRING VALLEY RAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO MOST OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES ON
SATURDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH EXITING NORTHEAST INTO
IDAHO SATURDAY EVENING...LEAVING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST ADVISORY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SKIES SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AREAS OF ELKO COUNTY TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
DIP INTO THE 20S IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IN THE DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. WARMER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. MAY SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA BY NEXT TUESDAY. FOR NOW
INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS NOW SHOW PRECIPITATION REACHING UP
TO GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH MIN RH FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL BRING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL ZONES
EXCEPT 454 AND 455 WHERE FUELS ARE ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY IN ZONE 457.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
ON FRIDAY BUT COULD COME CLOSE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF ZONE
457.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50.

&&

$$

91/96/96/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 012219
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
319 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER
BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL NV. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE THEN BEGIN A COOLING
TREND ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A TROUGH PROGGED TO
DROP DOWN THE OREGON COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH EXPECT SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS...GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING LOWER. BY
FRIDAY SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN
OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY...H7 TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO AROUND -4C WITH
SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 7500 FEET. WHILE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH...DISCREPANCIES
REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
MODELS BOTH KEEP THE BULK OF THE TROUGHS MOISTURE NORTH OF
NEVADA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER...BRING VALLEY RAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO MOST OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES ON
SATURDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH EXITING NORTHEAST INTO
IDAHO SATURDAY EVENING...LEAVING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST ADVISORY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SKIES SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AREAS OF ELKO COUNTY TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
DIP INTO THE 20S IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IN THE DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. WARMER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. MAY SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA BY NEXT TUESDAY. FOR NOW
INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS NOW SHOW PRECIPITATION REACHING UP
TO GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH MIN RH FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL BRING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL ZONES
EXCEPT 454 AND 455 WHERE FUELS ARE ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY IN ZONE 457.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
ON FRIDAY BUT COULD COME CLOSE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF ZONE
457.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50.

&&

$$

91/96/96/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 012219
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
319 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER
BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL NV. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE THEN BEGIN A COOLING
TREND ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A TROUGH PROGGED TO
DROP DOWN THE OREGON COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH EXPECT SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS...GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING LOWER. BY
FRIDAY SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN
OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY...H7 TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO AROUND -4C WITH
SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 7500 FEET. WHILE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH...DISCREPANCIES
REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
MODELS BOTH KEEP THE BULK OF THE TROUGHS MOISTURE NORTH OF
NEVADA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER...BRING VALLEY RAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO MOST OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES ON
SATURDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH EXITING NORTHEAST INTO
IDAHO SATURDAY EVENING...LEAVING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST ADVISORY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SKIES SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AREAS OF ELKO COUNTY TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
DIP INTO THE 20S IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IN THE DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. WARMER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. MAY SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA BY NEXT TUESDAY. FOR NOW
INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS NOW SHOW PRECIPITATION REACHING UP
TO GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH MIN RH FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL BRING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL ZONES
EXCEPT 454 AND 455 WHERE FUELS ARE ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY IN ZONE 457.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
ON FRIDAY BUT COULD COME CLOSE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF ZONE
457.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50.

&&

$$

91/96/96/91





000
FXUS65 KLKN 011748
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1048 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCHES TO RED FLAG
WARNINGS AND ADDED FIRE WEATHER ZONES 469,AND 470 TO THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 457. WINDS AND RH WILL DECREASE
BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVERNIGHT WED IN ZONE 457 BUT DECREASE BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 220 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON THE FULL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTENING UP PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
PEAK OUT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S, THEN A
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. BB

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WELL ADVERTISED
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND SIMILAR TO THE
12Z GUIDANCE RUN. THE GFS REMAINS THE QUICKER MODEL TO LIFT THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA BEFORE PIVOTING INTO MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...THIS MODEL RUN THE GFS HINTS AT A PIECE OF ENERGY LAGGING
BEHIND FROM THE MAIN TROUGH TO A POSITION OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEXT MONDAY AND REMAIN OFF THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GREATER CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE
DOWNWARD SWING OF TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH SOME 20S IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF ELKO COUNTY. IN
FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVING THE TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS.

FIRE WEATHER...ALMOST NO CHANGE IN FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE
NORTH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON TUESDAY
EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, AND
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN FIRE ZONES 457,467,AND 468 FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...STRONG COOLING TREND.
MANY VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL HIT THE 30S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50.

&&

$$

91/89/89/91





000
FXUS65 KLKN 011748
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1048 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCHES TO RED FLAG
WARNINGS AND ADDED FIRE WEATHER ZONES 469,AND 470 TO THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 457. WINDS AND RH WILL DECREASE
BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVERNIGHT WED IN ZONE 457 BUT DECREASE BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 220 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON THE FULL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTENING UP PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
PEAK OUT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S, THEN A
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. BB

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WELL ADVERTISED
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND SIMILAR TO THE
12Z GUIDANCE RUN. THE GFS REMAINS THE QUICKER MODEL TO LIFT THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA BEFORE PIVOTING INTO MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...THIS MODEL RUN THE GFS HINTS AT A PIECE OF ENERGY LAGGING
BEHIND FROM THE MAIN TROUGH TO A POSITION OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEXT MONDAY AND REMAIN OFF THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GREATER CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE
DOWNWARD SWING OF TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH SOME 20S IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF ELKO COUNTY. IN
FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVING THE TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS.

FIRE WEATHER...ALMOST NO CHANGE IN FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE
NORTH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON TUESDAY
EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, AND
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN FIRE ZONES 457,467,AND 468 FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...STRONG COOLING TREND.
MANY VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL HIT THE 30S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50.

&&

$$

91/89/89/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 011748
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1048 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCHES TO RED FLAG
WARNINGS AND ADDED FIRE WEATHER ZONES 469,AND 470 TO THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 457. WINDS AND RH WILL DECREASE
BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVERNIGHT WED IN ZONE 457 BUT DECREASE BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 220 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON THE FULL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTENING UP PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
PEAK OUT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S, THEN A
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. BB

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WELL ADVERTISED
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND SIMILAR TO THE
12Z GUIDANCE RUN. THE GFS REMAINS THE QUICKER MODEL TO LIFT THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA BEFORE PIVOTING INTO MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...THIS MODEL RUN THE GFS HINTS AT A PIECE OF ENERGY LAGGING
BEHIND FROM THE MAIN TROUGH TO A POSITION OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEXT MONDAY AND REMAIN OFF THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GREATER CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE
DOWNWARD SWING OF TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH SOME 20S IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF ELKO COUNTY. IN
FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVING THE TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS.

FIRE WEATHER...ALMOST NO CHANGE IN FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE
NORTH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON TUESDAY
EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, AND
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN FIRE ZONES 457,467,AND 468 FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...STRONG COOLING TREND.
MANY VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL HIT THE 30S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50.

&&

$$

91/89/89/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 011748
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1048 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCHES TO RED FLAG
WARNINGS AND ADDED FIRE WEATHER ZONES 469,AND 470 TO THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 457. WINDS AND RH WILL DECREASE
BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVERNIGHT WED IN ZONE 457 BUT DECREASE BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 220 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON THE FULL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTENING UP PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
PEAK OUT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S, THEN A
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. BB

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WELL ADVERTISED
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND SIMILAR TO THE
12Z GUIDANCE RUN. THE GFS REMAINS THE QUICKER MODEL TO LIFT THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA BEFORE PIVOTING INTO MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...THIS MODEL RUN THE GFS HINTS AT A PIECE OF ENERGY LAGGING
BEHIND FROM THE MAIN TROUGH TO A POSITION OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEXT MONDAY AND REMAIN OFF THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GREATER CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE
DOWNWARD SWING OF TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH SOME 20S IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF ELKO COUNTY. IN
FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVING THE TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS.

FIRE WEATHER...ALMOST NO CHANGE IN FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE
NORTH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON TUESDAY
EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, AND
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN FIRE ZONES 457,467,AND 468 FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...STRONG COOLING TREND.
MANY VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL HIT THE 30S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50.

&&

$$

91/89/89/91





000
FXUS65 KLKN 010920 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON THE FULL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTENING UP PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
PEAK OUT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S, THEN A
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. BB

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WELL ADVERTISED
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND SIMILAR TO THE
12Z GUIDANCE RUN. THE GFS REMAINS THE QUICKER MODEL TO LIFT THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA BEFORE PIVOTING INTO MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...THIS MODEL RUN THE GFS HINTS AT A PIECE OF ENERGY LAGGING
BEHIND FROM THE MAIN TROUGH TO A POSITION OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEXT MONDAY AND REMAIN OFF THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GREATER CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE
DOWNWARD SWING OF TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH SOME 20S IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF ELKO COUNTY. IN
FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVING THE TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALMOST NO CHANGE IN FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE
NORTH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON TUESDAY
EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, AND
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN FIRE ZONES 457,467,AND 468 FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...STRONG COOLING TREND.
MANY VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL HIT THE 30S BY SUNDAY.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER
AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

$$

98/89/89/98





000
FXUS65 KLKN 010920
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON THE FULL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTENING UP PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
PEAK OUT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S, THEN A
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. BB

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WELL ADVERTISED
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND SIMILAR TO THE
12Z GUIDANCE RUN. THE GFS REMAINS THE QUICKER MODEL TO LIFT THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA BEFORE PIVOTING INTO MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...THIS MODEL RUN THE GFS HINTS AT A PIECE OF ENERGY LAGGING
BEHIND FROM THE MAIN TROUGH TO A POSITION OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEXT MONDAY AND REMAIN OFF THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GREATER CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE
DOWNWARD SWING OF TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH SOME 20S IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF ELKO COUNTY. IN
FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVING THE TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS.
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALMOST NO CHANGE IN FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE
NORTH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON TUESDAY
EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, AND
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN FIRE ZONES 457,467,AND 468 FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...STRONG COOLING TREND.
MANY VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL HIT THE 30S BY SUNDAY.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER
AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

$$

98/89/89/98





000
FXUS65 KLKN 010920 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON THE FULL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTENING UP PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
PEAK OUT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S, THEN A
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. BB

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WELL ADVERTISED
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND SIMILAR TO THE
12Z GUIDANCE RUN. THE GFS REMAINS THE QUICKER MODEL TO LIFT THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA BEFORE PIVOTING INTO MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...THIS MODEL RUN THE GFS HINTS AT A PIECE OF ENERGY LAGGING
BEHIND FROM THE MAIN TROUGH TO A POSITION OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEXT MONDAY AND REMAIN OFF THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GREATER CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE
DOWNWARD SWING OF TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH SOME 20S IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF ELKO COUNTY. IN
FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVING THE TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALMOST NO CHANGE IN FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE
NORTH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON TUESDAY
EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, AND
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN FIRE ZONES 457,467,AND 468 FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...STRONG COOLING TREND.
MANY VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL HIT THE 30S BY SUNDAY.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER
AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

$$

98/89/89/98





000
FXUS65 KLKN 010920
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON THE FULL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTENING UP PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
PEAK OUT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S, THEN A
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. BB

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WELL ADVERTISED
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND SIMILAR TO THE
12Z GUIDANCE RUN. THE GFS REMAINS THE QUICKER MODEL TO LIFT THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA BEFORE PIVOTING INTO MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...THIS MODEL RUN THE GFS HINTS AT A PIECE OF ENERGY LAGGING
BEHIND FROM THE MAIN TROUGH TO A POSITION OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEXT MONDAY AND REMAIN OFF THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GREATER CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE
DOWNWARD SWING OF TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH SOME 20S IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF ELKO COUNTY. IN
FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVING THE TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS.
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALMOST NO CHANGE IN FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE
NORTH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON TUESDAY
EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, AND
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN FIRE ZONES 457,467,AND 468 FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...STRONG COOLING TREND.
MANY VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL HIT THE 30S BY SUNDAY.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER
AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

$$

98/89/89/98




000
FXUS65 KLKN 312237
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
337 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TIGHTEN UP PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. ON WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK OUT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S, THEN A COOLING
TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ALL SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH INTO
NEVADA...ALONG WITH A DEEPER SOUTHERLY PUSH. THE RESULT OF WHICH
WILL BE EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...AND
POSSIBLY PRECIPITATION REACHING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. MAIN CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO TREND TEMPERATURES LOWER. WHILE POPS
WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY...KEPT THEM LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON SHOWER
WORDING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH EACH
RUN. COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA...IN PARTICULAR ELKO COUNTY...SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEY AREAS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE NORTH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON TUESDAY EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH, INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ON WEDNESDAY, AND CONTUINING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN FIRE ZONES 457,467,AND 468
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER
AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

$$

91/96/96/91





000
FXUS65 KLKN 312237
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
337 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TIGHTEN UP PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. ON WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK OUT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S, THEN A COOLING
TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ALL SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH INTO
NEVADA...ALONG WITH A DEEPER SOUTHERLY PUSH. THE RESULT OF WHICH
WILL BE EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...AND
POSSIBLY PRECIPITATION REACHING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. MAIN CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO TREND TEMPERATURES LOWER. WHILE POPS
WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY...KEPT THEM LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON SHOWER
WORDING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH EACH
RUN. COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA...IN PARTICULAR ELKO COUNTY...SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEY AREAS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE NORTH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON TUESDAY EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH, INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ON WEDNESDAY, AND CONTUINING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN FIRE ZONES 457,467,AND 468
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER
AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

$$

91/96/96/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 310910
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS NEVADA FOR THE END
OF AUGUST AND THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER...WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND DRY CONDITIONS. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY.

CLEAR CALM AND COOL ACROSS NEVADA THIS MORNING. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL DELIVER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO NEVADA, ENDING ANY CHANCE OF
RAIN. CUMULUS BUILDUPS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AND NEAR
WHITE PINE COUNTY, WHERE NAM HANGS ONTO WEAK MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY, WITH 2-4 DEGREES OF
WARMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SW WINDS INCREASE, AVERAGING 15-25
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, AND 20-30 MPH/GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA.  BAT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN
IN FAVOR OF TAKING AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SOME DISCREPANCIES ARE FOUND IN DETAILS SUCH AS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE TROUGH GOES...AS WELL AS TIMING AND STRENGTH.

THIS FORECAST CYCLE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED ON THE
AMPLITUDE WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
EVEN THOUGH THIS IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE...BOTH MODELS ENHANCE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALONG WITH INCREASES WINDS FOR
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH OF THESE DAYS. ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS.

THE GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA THE FIRST HALF THE
THE WEEKEND IS SLOWER BY ABOUT 24 HOURS LIFTING IT NORTHEASTWARD. AT
THIS POINT...WILL FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH MAKES THE COOLEST
DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREE BELOW NORMAL. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOW A REBOUND AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WHICH WILL ADD A FEWS DEGREES TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  89

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 18Z-19Z
FROM EAST OF THE RUBIES SOUTH ACROSS WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE
COUNTIES AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.  89

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MIN RH OF 8-14% FOR ALL FWZ. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS, AVERAGING 10-20 MPH. SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 ACROSS FWZ 455
AND 457 THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...2-4 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS NORTHERN FWZ. MIN RH REMAINS
NEAR 10% FOR ALL FWZ, WITH AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS. WIND GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH, AND LOCAL/BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS SE FWZ 454, 455 AND 457 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WHERE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON. WITH RH AS LOW AS 9%, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.  BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/89/89/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 310910
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS NEVADA FOR THE END
OF AUGUST AND THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER...WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS...COOL NIGHTS...AND DRY CONDITIONS. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY.

CLEAR CALM AND COOL ACROSS NEVADA THIS MORNING. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL DELIVER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO NEVADA, ENDING ANY CHANCE OF
RAIN. CUMULUS BUILDUPS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AND NEAR
WHITE PINE COUNTY, WHERE NAM HANGS ONTO WEAK MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY, WITH 2-4 DEGREES OF
WARMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SW WINDS INCREASE, AVERAGING 15-25
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, AND 20-30 MPH/GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA.  BAT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN
IN FAVOR OF TAKING AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SOME DISCREPANCIES ARE FOUND IN DETAILS SUCH AS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE TROUGH GOES...AS WELL AS TIMING AND STRENGTH.

THIS FORECAST CYCLE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED ON THE
AMPLITUDE WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
EVEN THOUGH THIS IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE...BOTH MODELS ENHANCE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALONG WITH INCREASES WINDS FOR
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH OF THESE DAYS. ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS.

THE GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA THE FIRST HALF THE
THE WEEKEND IS SLOWER BY ABOUT 24 HOURS LIFTING IT NORTHEASTWARD. AT
THIS POINT...WILL FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH MAKES THE COOLEST
DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREE BELOW NORMAL. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOW A REBOUND AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WHICH WILL ADD A FEWS DEGREES TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  89

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 18Z-19Z
FROM EAST OF THE RUBIES SOUTH ACROSS WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE
COUNTIES AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.  89

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MIN RH OF 8-14% FOR ALL FWZ. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS, AVERAGING 10-20 MPH. SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 ACROSS FWZ 455
AND 457 THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...2-4 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS NORTHERN FWZ. MIN RH REMAINS
NEAR 10% FOR ALL FWZ, WITH AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS. WIND GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH, AND LOCAL/BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS SE FWZ 454, 455 AND 457 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WHERE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON. WITH RH AS LOW AS 9%, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.  BAT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/89/89/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 302343
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
443 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.

&&


.AVIATION UPDATE...KWMC METAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING
SOME TS OR LTG DSNT TODAY. THIS IS NOT CORRECT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING AT OR ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL...AND THERE IS NONE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD- UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 322 PM /

SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WARMING TEMPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGIN TO REBOUND. A SMIDGEN OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS AND NO
THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN DRIER ON TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV AS UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEK...DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON
AND OREGON MID-WEEK...REACHING NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES NEVADA NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND
COOLER...LIKELY LOWERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL TREND HIGHER NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOW EACH AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN NEXT FRIDAY. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA NEXT SUNDAY...LEAVING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BEGIN
TO REBOUND SUNDAY...LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TO LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

AVIATION...WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD-UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.

FIRE WEATHER...A COUPLE OF SITES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FIRE
ZONES 468 AND 469 GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH WITH RH BELOW 15 PCT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN LOCALIZED WITH
WIND DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF FIRE ZONE 470, THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF 454, AND 455 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS
EXPECTED ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON,ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

96/96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 302343
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
443 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.

&&


.AVIATION UPDATE...KWMC METAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING
SOME TS OR LTG DSNT TODAY. THIS IS NOT CORRECT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING AT OR ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL...AND THERE IS NONE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD- UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 322 PM /

SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WARMING TEMPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGIN TO REBOUND. A SMIDGEN OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS AND NO
THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN DRIER ON TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV AS UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEK...DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON
AND OREGON MID-WEEK...REACHING NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES NEVADA NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND
COOLER...LIKELY LOWERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL TREND HIGHER NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOW EACH AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN NEXT FRIDAY. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA NEXT SUNDAY...LEAVING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BEGIN
TO REBOUND SUNDAY...LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TO LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

AVIATION...WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD-UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.

FIRE WEATHER...A COUPLE OF SITES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FIRE
ZONES 468 AND 469 GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH WITH RH BELOW 15 PCT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN LOCALIZED WITH
WIND DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF FIRE ZONE 470, THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF 454, AND 455 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS
EXPECTED ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON,ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

96/96/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 302343
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
443 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.

&&


.AVIATION UPDATE...KWMC METAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING
SOME TS OR LTG DSNT TODAY. THIS IS NOT CORRECT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING AT OR ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL...AND THERE IS NONE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD- UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 322 PM /

SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WARMING TEMPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGIN TO REBOUND. A SMIDGEN OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS AND NO
THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN DRIER ON TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV AS UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEK...DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON
AND OREGON MID-WEEK...REACHING NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES NEVADA NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND
COOLER...LIKELY LOWERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL TREND HIGHER NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOW EACH AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN NEXT FRIDAY. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA NEXT SUNDAY...LEAVING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BEGIN
TO REBOUND SUNDAY...LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TO LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

AVIATION...WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD-UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.

FIRE WEATHER...A COUPLE OF SITES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FIRE
ZONES 468 AND 469 GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH WITH RH BELOW 15 PCT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN LOCALIZED WITH
WIND DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF FIRE ZONE 470, THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF 454, AND 455 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS
EXPECTED ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON,ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

96/96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 302222
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
THEN COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WARMING TEMPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGIN TO REBOUND. A SMIDGEN OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS AND NO
THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN DRIER ON TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV AS UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEK...DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON
AND OREGON MID-WEEK...REACHING NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES NEVADA NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND
COOLER...LIKELY LOWERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL TREND HIGHER NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOW EACH AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN NEXT FRIDAY. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA NEXT SUNDAY...LEAVING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BEGIN
TO REBOUND SUNDAY...LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TO LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS LEADS TO SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD-UPS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COUPLE OF SITES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FIRE
ZONES 468 AND 469 GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH WITH RH BELOW 15 PCT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN LOCALIZED WITH
WIND DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF FIRE ZONE 470, THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF 454, AND 455 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS
EXPECTED ACROSS FIRE ZONE 455 MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON,ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96/91




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