000
FXUS65 KLKN 222321 CCA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
325 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT ACROSS NEVADA
...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S. TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER...WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR...WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE PLEASANT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR RECORD LOWS IN SOME
PLACES...AND GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER FREEZE
PRODUCT NEEDED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AGAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING. AGRICULTURISTS
SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTION TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION FROM
DAMAGING COLD. THESE TEMPERATURES CAN KILL OR DAMAGE SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD...WITH MANY AREAS WELL
BELOW FREEZING. SOME NORTHERN NEVADA VALLEYS NEAR WILD HORSE AND CHARLESTON
COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. VERY DRY AIR...AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS
WILL REBOUND NICELY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WHITE PINE/NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER.
ALSO ON THURSDAY...WINDS COULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY FOR NORTHERN
NYE...WHITE PINE...AND LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. 50 KNOT 500MB JET
MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING
AND GOOD MIXING. THOUGHT ABOUT A WIND ADVISORY...BUT FEEL WINDS
WILL BE JUST BE UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME AREAS COULD GUST
AROUND 40 MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WHITE PINE GUSTING
TO 50 MPH. VALLEY GUSTS SHOULD BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE. EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. THOUGHT ABOUT INCLUDING
THUNDER...BUT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...OPTED TO
LEAVE IT OUT. THERE STILL COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRIKE...CONFINED
TO THE OR/ID/NV BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE
BREEZY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PLEASANT...WITH DRY WEATHER.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN DIFFERENCES EMERGE WITH TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND BREAK DOWN OF BLOCKING HIGH. A
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD WITH A LOW
CENTERED AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT FROM THE PARENT LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ELKO COUNTY AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEVADA. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND INCREASED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA. WEDNESDAY MODELS DEEPEN A LOW OFF THE WEST COAST BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...HOWEVER DYNAMICS IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LOW WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOPING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KELY AND KTPH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND
DRY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS NEVADA.
THURSDAY...WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN NORTHERN NEVADA. THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
94/90/90/94
000
FXUS65 KLKN 222225
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
325 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT ACROSS NEVADA
...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S. TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER...WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR...WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE PLEASANT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR RECORD LOWS IN SOME
PLACES...AND GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER FREEZE
PRODUCT NEEDED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AGAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING. AGRICULTURISTS
SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTION TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION FROM
DAMAGING COLD. THESE TEMPERATURES CAN KILL OR DAMAGE SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD...WITH MANY AREAS WELL
BELOW FREEZING. SOME NORTHERN NEVADA VALLEYS NEAR WILD HORSE AND CHARLESTON
COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. VERY DRY AIR...AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS
WILL REBOUND NICELY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WHITE PINE/NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER.
ALSO ON THURSDAY...WINDS COULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY FOR NORTHERN
NYE...WHITE PINE...AND LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. 50 KNOT 500MB JET
MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING
AND GOOD MIXING. THOUGHT ABOUT A WIND ADVISORY...BUT FEEL WINDS
WILL BE JUST BE UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME AREAS COULD GUST
AROUND 40 MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WHITE PINE GUSTING
TO 50 MPH. VALLEY GUSTS SHOULD BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE. EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. THOUGHT ABOUT INCLUDING
THUNDER...BUT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...OPTED TO
LEAVE IT OUT. THERE STILL COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRIKE...CONFINED
TO THE OR/ID/NV BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE
BREEZY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PLEASANT...WITH DRY WEATHER.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN DIFFERENCES EMERGE WITH TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND BREAK DOWN OF BLOCKING HIGH. A
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD WITH A LOW
CENTERED AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT FROM THE PARENT LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ELKO COUNTY AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEVADA. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND INCREASED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA. WEDNESDAY MODELS DEEPEN A LOW OFF THE WEST COAST BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...HOWEVER DYNAMICS IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LOW WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOPING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KELY AND KTPH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT WILL BE COLD
AND DRY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS NEVADA.
THURSDAY...WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY...WITH WING GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN
CENTRAL NEVADA. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WHITE
PINE...NORTHERN NYE...AND SOUTHERN LEANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER IN NORTHERN NEVADA. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE
WEATHER SYSTEM.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
94/90/90/94
000
FXUS65 KLKN 220949
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
249 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SMALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY AND THURSDAY AND
MANY VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDINESS STRETCHING FROM WENDOVER BACK TO
FALLON. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEVADA...CEILINGS AROUND 9K FT AGL. THE GFS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE ON THESE TWO AREAS. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. H7 TEMPS AROUND
THE CORE OF THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE IS -14C. ALTHOUGH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY...A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN THE
LOWEST VALLEYS OF MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN REGION TONIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PAST MIDNIGHT. A HARD
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM AND INCLUDES ALL ZONES
EXCEPT THE WENDOVER ZONE. NORTHERN NYE COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE
ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THAT ZONE.
THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
AND THURSDAY AS JET ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WINDS APPEAR SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL AT
THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCANT WITH THE EXPECTED SURFACE
DRYING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST BET FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA ON THURSDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE LOBE
PROTRUDES INTO THE STATE FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. NOT CONVINCED THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TODAY AND THURSDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE
MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN FEATURES A CLOSED H5 PACIFIC LOW HOVERING OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...AND IDAHO. ANTICIPATING PERSISTENT CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AT 500 MB FROM DAY 3 TO DAY 7...ALBEIT DRY OVER NEVADA F54
THROUGH F96. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE BASE...AND AS
TIME ELAPSES THE GFS AND EC STRUGGLE TO PINPOINT THE TRACKS OF THE
VORT LOBES...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SPIKE IN INSTABILITY
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES OF LKN. GENERALLY EXPECTING ENHANCED
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY SPILL INTO THE
SILVER STATE. SIGNIFICANT QPF NOT EXPECTED...LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
EXPECTED. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUMPED UP THE POPS ON DAY SIX AND
SEVEN.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS REDEVELOPING TODAY LATE IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE DRY THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA
TODAY...AND MAINLY ALL AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THURSDAY. A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST ELKO
COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
92/97/97/92
000
FXUS65 KLKN 220010
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
510 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME
NORTH. ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON TAP FOR THURSDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING TO BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...SHORT TERM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A PLUM OF
DUST SPREADING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS EVENING. AT
4:45PM TRAINED SPOTTERS IN BATTLE MOUNTAIN REPORTED VISIBILITIES
BEING REDUCED DOWN TO BETWEEN A HALF A MILE AND ONE MILE. THE
ALKALI DUST CLOUD ORIGINATED IN THE CARSON SINK AREA JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF FALLON. STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CARRYING
THE PLUM INTO NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA AND COUNTIES...AS WELL
AS WESTERN ELKO COUNTY AS OF 5:00PM. THIS PLUM WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST THROUGH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
INTO EASTERN ELKO COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING. MOTORISTS MAY FIND
TRAVEL DIFFICULT AT TIMES ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. A NOWCAST HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS ONGOING EVENT...WITH UPDATES EXPECTED AS
THE PLUM DRIFTS EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...A DENSE PLUM OF ALKALI DUST IS APPROACHING THE ELKO
AIRPORT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WEATHER SPOTTERS WEST OF ELKO
HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO AROUND A HALF A MILE
WITH THIS DUST PLUM. HAVE UPDATED THE ELKO TAF TO REFLECT LATEST
INFORMATION AND EXPECTED TIMING OF THE DUST PLUM PASSAGE BY THE
ELKO AIRPORT. NOT EXPECTING ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KWMC KELY
OR KTPH...ONLY KEKO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 339 PM /
SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME NORTH. ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON TAP FOR THURSDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING TO BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER WS AND OR.
THIS WILL MEANDER AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH EMBEDDED VORT
MAXES ROTATING AROUND AND THROUGH CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL
RESULT MOSTLY IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS. IF SHOWERS CAN FORM...THEY WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...700 MB
TEMPS DROP ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN CLOSE TO VALLEY
FLOORS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. ONLY EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...WHICH WILL ONLY OCCUR AT NIGHT. SOME OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SANTA ROSAS...INDEPENDENCE...AND JARBIDGE COULD SEE A
LIGHT DUSTING ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. IF RECREATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR COLD
TEMPS...GUSTY WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
AGAIN...CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS NEVADA...WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING TEMPS BELOW FREEZING. SOME AREAS MAY BE NEAR
RECORD COLD LOWS...ESPECIALLY KWMC AND KEKO. THE RECORD LOW IN
WINNEMUCCA IS 23 FOR THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A FORECAST OF 26. ALL
SENSITIVE PLANTS AND VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED. THESE TEMPS
CAN KILL OR DAMAGE PLANTS IF NOT PROTECTED. FOR THIS...OPTED TO
ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH DUE TO WIDESPREAD NATURE AND MANY LOCATIONS
PAST THE LAST FREEZE...HARD FREEZE DATE. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
THURSDAY THERE IS A LITTLE INSTABILITY...BUT GFS LIS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. PWATS ARE NEAR 0.3 INCHES COMBINED
WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...WHICH DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL MOSTLY BE DRY...GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE. JRM
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...CENTERING OVER OR NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND BC. DRY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20 MPH RANGE. THE ENERGY IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY TO
INCLUDE MOUNTAINS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW STRIKES TO NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY
SATURDAY...WITH AS MUCH AS A COUPLE DOZEN STRIKES SPREAD OUT OVER
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS
BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY
TOO...WITH AT MOST A FEW STRIKES...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERALLY VALLEY AREAS CAN EXPECT MILD
CONDITIONS WITH NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...CREATING
SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 4-5 MILES IN HEAVIEST DUST...WHICH SHOULD
BE AT KWMC AND KEKO.
FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BUT
STILL QUITE WARM ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. THURSDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
NEVADA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY EACH
AFTERNOON. CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE DRY...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
&&
$$
96/96/96
000
FXUS65 KLKN 212239
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
339 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME NORTH. ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON TAP FOR THURSDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING TO BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER WS AND OR.
THIS WILL MEANDER AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH EMBEDDED VORT
MAXES ROTATING AROUND AND THROUGH CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL
RESULT MOSTLY IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS. IF SHOWERS CAN FORM...THEY WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...700 MB
TEMPS DROP ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN CLOSE TO VALLEY
FLOORS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. ONLY EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...WHICH WILL ONLY OCCUR AT NIGHT. SOME OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SANTA ROSAS...INDEPENDENCE...AND JARBIDGE COULD SEE A
LIGHT DUSTING ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. IF RECREATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR COLD
TEMPS...GUSTY WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
AGAIN...CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS NEVADA...WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING TEMPS BELOW FREEZING. SOME AREAS MAY BE NEAR
RECORD COLD LOWS...ESPECIALLY KWMC AND KEKO. THE RECORD LOW IN
WINNEMUCCA IS 23 FOR THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A FORECAST OF 26. ALL
SENSITIVE PLANTS AND VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED. THESE TEMPS
CAN KILL OR DAMAGE PLANTS IF NOT PROTECTED. FOR THIS...OPTED TO
ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH DUE TO WIDESPREAD NATURE AND MANY LOCATIONS
PAST THE LAST FREEZE...HARD FREEZE DATE. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
THURSDAY THERE IS A LITTLE INSTABILITY...BUT GFS LIS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. PWATS ARE NEAR 0.3 INCHES COMBINED
WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...WHICH DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL MOSTLY BE DRY...GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE. JRM
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...CENTERING OVER OR NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND BC. DRY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20 MPH RANGE. THE ENERGY IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY TO
INCLUDE MOUNTAINS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW STRIKES TO NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY
SATURDAY...WITH AS MUCH AS A COUPLE DOZEN STRIKES SPREAD OUT OVER
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS
BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY
TOO...WITH AT MOST A FEW STRIKES...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERALLY VALLEY AREAS CAN EXPECT MILD
CONDITIONS WITH NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...CREATING
SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 4-5 MILES IN HEAVIEST DUST...WHICH SHOULD
BE AT KWMC AND KEKO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BUT
STILL QUITE WARM ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. THURSDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
NEVADA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY EACH
AFTERNOON. CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE DRY...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
&&
$$
94/96/96/94/86
000
FXUS65 KLKN 210918
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
218 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS TOMORROW WITH LESS WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BIG CLOSED LOW DIVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PAC NW DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM. TODAY WE ARE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PROVIDE A SURGE OF WARMTH WITH MANY AREAS APPROACHING OR EVEN
EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES. STRONG WINDS DO MOVE IN ALOFT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP...BUT BIGGEST CONCERN IS HUMBOLDT
COUNTY WHICH IS THE ONLY PLACE WHERE MIXED LAYER WINDS APPEAR TO
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. LAST SHIFT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE IT. STRONGEST WINDS DEFINITELY LOOK
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY. WINDS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PICK DUST UP OFF OF THE CARSON SINK AND OTHER DRY LAKE
BEDS IN WESTERN NEVADA SO KEPT BLOWIND DUST IN THE FORECAST AS
WELL. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...MODELS DON`T INDICATE MUCH.
FORCING IS DECENT BUT MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE. KEPT SOME
ISOLATED POPS GOING WHERE FORCING AND INSTABILITY (WHAT THERE IS
OF IT) COINCIDE IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.
COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. COOLER AIR WILL
OBVIOUSLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT...BUT WHILE FGEN IS PRETTY
STRONG...AGAIN MOISTURE IS SCARCE SO ONLY HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY BUT NOT AS BAD AS TODAY. PROBABLY NOT MUCH BLOWING DUST
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THIS. RCM
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONUS FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...SENDING INTERMITTENT IMPULSES OF ENERGY THROUGH
THE LKN CWFA. IT APPEARS THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SEVERAL BREEZY
DAYS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS REVEALED IN THE MODELS TO SOME
DEGREE EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...QPF WILL BE
MINIMAL AND IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS...MUCH LESS RAIN SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN DAY. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE LOBE IS PROGGED FOR THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPTH OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENSION
HOWEVER CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW DIFFERS AS MUCH AS 300
MILES ON THURSDAY. FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
UNDERGO A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GIVING WAY TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO RE-CENTER OVER WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS
AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 KTS AT KWMC. BLDU MAY IMPACT
KWMC AND KEKO AFTER 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR
TODAY...WITH WORST CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL
NEVADA. RH`S WILL INCREASE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IS LOW. RCM
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
&&
$$
93/92/92/93
000
FXUS65 KLKN 202125
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
225 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CWA FOR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY FROM
11 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 10 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED. WITH
AIRMASS QUITE DRY AT THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN. 500 MB WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR 50-55 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TROF REMAINS OVER NV WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
CWA. THUS...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL AFFECT NEVADA`S WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE PARENT PAC NW LOW ROTATES INTO NEVADA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 THURSDAY, WITH CHANCE CATEGORY
ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES, WITH 60S COMMON. REMOVED ALL POPS ON
FRIDAY, COURTESY OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS PASSING WAVE.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH ON SW FLOW FROM
TIME TO TIME, THROUGH MONDAY, BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
COURSE. SIMPLY KEPT LOW POPS RELEGATED TO NORTHERN NEVADA, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PLEASANT IN THE 70S. BT
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT/DRAINAGE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT, BENEATH PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. AFTER
18Z TUE, STRONG SW WINDS WILL IMPACT OPERATIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. SW
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 KTS. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KWMC,
AVERAGING 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS. AREAS OF BLDU ARE EXPECTED
TO REDUCE VIS AT KWMC AFTER 18Z...WITH LESSER VIS RESTRICTIONS AT
KEKO EXPECTED AFTER 21Z. BT
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
INCREASING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
40+ MPH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEVADA...WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRE DISTRICT. RH`S WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY AT THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 10 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
$$
87/99/87
000
FXUS65 KLKN 200922
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
222 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE WEEK WHILE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL GROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE SLOWLY BUT SURELY
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT IT WILL BE PRETTY SHORT-
LIVED. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF OUR REGION DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS...NOT TO MENTION WARMER. ONE EXCEPTION IS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW TO OUR EAST MAY BE ACTED UPON BY A BIT OF
INSTABILITY AND CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS. PROBABLY NO THUNDER WITH THEM
ALTHOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR YOU CAN RARELY COMPLETELY RULE IT
OUT...ASSUMING THEY FORM AT ALL. RIGHT NOW KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
THOUGH DO HAVE SOME `GHOST POPS` IN THE GRIDS. AS MENTIONED...MOST
AREAS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGH 60S
TO LOW 70S IN MOST VALLEYS.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS MORNING
IS. MOST PLACES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
WHILE LATER ON THIS STORM MAY BRING COLDER AIR AND SHOWERS...AT
FIRST THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A SURGE OF WARM GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS
EXPECTED TODAY...AND WINDS WILL GUST UPWARDS OF 40 MPH. IN
FACT...MIXED LAYER WINDS SUGGEST WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF
45 MPH MAY BE ATTAINED IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE RELATIVELY UNINHABITED WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTY AS OPPOSED TO THE POPULATED HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR. EVEN
IF WINDS DON`T REACH ADVISORY...STRONGER WINDS TO THE WEST MAY
BRING A PLUME OF DUST OFF OF THE CARSON SINK SO INCLUDED BLOWING
DUST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS
WELL...BUT PW`S ARE PRETTY LOW AND INSTABILITY RELATIVELY
MEAGER...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT JUST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AREAS. RCM
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS AGREE IN GENERAL
PICTURE BUT DIFFER IN SPECIFICS. EURO AND GFS BOTH HAVE THE IDEA OF
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PAC NW SPINNING SEVERAL LOBES AROUND THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
LOBES...BUT BOTH ARE RELATIVELY DRY. HAVE DECIDED TO STICK LARGELY
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIMITING POPS
TO LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING. EXPECT COLD AIR TO
INITIALLY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SPOTTY SHOWER AT
NIGHT AND DAY TIME STORMS UNTIL SOME EXPANSION INTO CENTRAL NEVADA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
AGAIN...MODEL DIFFS PRECLUDE ANY DEFINITIVE ANSWERS AT THIS POINT.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND ADJUST DAILY IN ALL LIKELIHOOD. BB
&&
.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH TAF PERIOD. WINDS NORTH TO
NORTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS EXCEPT 10-20 AT KTPH. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND
TO SOUTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT LATE BUT AT VERY LIGHT SPEEDS. OUTLOOK FOR
TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20-30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 AT KWMC AND KTPH. BB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND NO
THUNDERSTORMS. DECENT RECOVERIES. THINGS GET DICIER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
INCREASES...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY AS THE WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. MAY SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40+ MPH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEVADA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ELSEWHERE.
RH`S WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY LOW. RCM
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/98/98/93
| 
