Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KLKN 302247
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
347 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. SATURDAY
MUCH COLDER AND SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY ABOVE 6,000 FEET WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA. RAIN AND
SNOW MIX EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6,000 FEET. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON SUNDAY
WITH IMPROVING WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS INVADING THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH
MAY KEEP THE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...HAVE
ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ZONES. RH WILL BE ABOVE 15
PERCENT ACROSS MOST AREAS SO NO RFW CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
AND THE NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM
6,000 TO 7,000 FEET. ISSUED IMPACT BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW ON ROADS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ABOVE 6,000 FEET ACROSS CENTRAL NEAVADA. MOST ISSUES
WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON PASSES
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. BY SUNSET SNOW WILL MAINLY IMPACT
NORTHERN NEVADA WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON PASSES
ALONG INTERSTATE 80 DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTIME HOURS. WILL
LET FUTURE SHIFTS DETERMINE IF ANOTHER SNOW ADVISORY IS NEEDED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. TROUGH OVER
NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTS IN CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...OR JUST RAIN...OTHERWISE
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WHICH WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY MAY SEE AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE A TRACE UP TO A HALF
INCH OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT MODEL DISCREPANCIES BY SUNDAY
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE QUICKER TO EJECT THE TROUGH AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS MODELS...WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWS TO MAINLY MOUNTAIN AREAS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF ELKO COUNTY AND ALL OF WHITE PINE COUNTY. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO EJECT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE MTS OF WHITE PINE COUNTY...OTHERWISE
DRY WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS. DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE ENTIRE CWA DRY...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE
SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SPREADING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED
WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH BLOWING DUST POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN HAZY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

90/96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 301000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
300 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
FRIDAY AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY. THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE LKN CWFA
THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE AXIS CUTS N/S THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA.
SATELLITE ALSO CLEARLY DEFINES A CIRCULATION OUT IN THE PACIFIC
OCEAN ABOUT 600 MILES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS POORLY
MODELED. A SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD FIELD RIDING OVER THE RIDGE IS
SPREADING INTO OREGON AT THIS HOUR. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW
EASTERLY PROGRESSION OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
SHOW MORE DIGGING WITH THE TROUGH THUS DELAYING PRECIPITATION
ONSET AND COLD AIR INTRUSION.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MOST AREAS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIES AND MOVES
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. SOME BREEZY CONDITION ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 6500
AND 7500 FEET. THE COLD AIR WILL POOL FURTHER WEST IN NEVADA
HOWEVER A SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO IS BEING PLAYED OUT BY
THE NAM MODEL THAT IS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH THIS TIME-FRAME. THE
MAIN ISSUE COULD BE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL NEVADA
AND A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE DRYING DURING THE
DAY AND THE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE TO MOVE THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SIMILAR SOUTHERLY EXTENSION THROUGH THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST
PLACES. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION
AND THE SREF AND NAM MODELS ARE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS THE GREATEST IMPACT...DUE TO TIMING
DURING THE DAY...WILL BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 600O FEET. HIGHWAY
OVERPASSES SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATION OR SLICK CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...AND LAMOILLE WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
LOOMS UPSTREAM AND WILL BRING A STARK CHANGE OF WEATHER TO
NORTHEASTERN NV THIS WEEKEND. AT THE ONSET OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...EXPECT AN H5 LOW OVER WILDHORSE WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF
EXTENDING TO THE BEEHIVE STATE. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT A
TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER. A SECONDARY H5 LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE LKN
CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
NORTHERN NV. HOWEVER...THE SECOND LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY
AND IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND. EXPECT A SEVERAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENSUING 24 HOUR
PERIOD. GUSTS WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER TONOPAH AND ELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS...POSES A SMALL
CONCERN. THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME OF GUSTINESS TO WARRANT AN
EVENT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVES CLOSE
TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING....WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457. EXPECT WINDS TO
AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THE DANGER OF
FIRE SPREAD IN THE DORMANT FUELS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97





000
FXUS65 KLKN 292148
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
248 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS ON FRIDAY. THE FIRST WINTER
STORM OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL REACH THE WEST COAST THIS FRIDAY AND BRING A DRASTIC
CHANGE IN WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY SOUTH WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35-45
MPH. WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITES ON
FRIDAY THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS COULD CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO
THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON HALLOWEEN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH 60`S AND LOW 70`S ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 25 DEGREES COLDER
THEN FRIDAY AS THE COLD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH MANY
AREAS STAYING IN THE LOW 40`S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY
AREAS DROPPING TO THE LOW 20`S. TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN COOL
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN RIDGING STARTS BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS...POSES A SMALL
CONCERN. THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME OF GUSTINESS TO WARRANT AN
EVENT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVES CLOSE
TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING....WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457. EXPECT WINDS TO
AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THE DANGER OF
FIRE SPREAD IN THE DORMANT FUELS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99/99









000
FXUS65 KLKN 290918
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
218 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BUT THE WINDS WILL REALLY HOWL IN CENTRAL
NEVADA ON HALLOWEEN. THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN EXTREMELY BROAD RIDGE LIES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AT THIS HOUR. THE LOW AMPLITUDE ASPECT OF THE
RIDGE IS ALLOWING A DIRTY FLOW ACROSS NEVADA. IR SATELLITE REVEALS
THAT CLOUDS ARE MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
WINDS ARE CALM AND TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30S...5-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY AHEAD
OF A STORM GATHERING STRENGTH OUT IN THE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE
AXIS...NOW STRIKING THROUGH THE CENTER OF NEVADA WILL TRANSLATE TO
UTAH BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
LESS CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED UNDER A LIGHT WIND REGIME.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
AMPLIFYING AND PROGRESSING EAST TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS.
PRECIPITATION BANDING WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH SOME 70
DEGREE TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION LATER IN THIS DOCUMENT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE CALIFORNIA
COASTAL AREA AND A 100-110KT JET CORE WILL CRUISE ALOFT OF
CALIFORNIA. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOVE 8000 FEET SO THE BIG ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. EARLY TRICK-
OR-TREATERS WILL NEED TO HOLD THEIR GOODIE BAGS TIGHT AS GUSTY
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LOOK TO BE STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ACROSS
NORTHERN NYE...WHITE PINE...AND THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LANDER
AND EUREKA COUNTIES. AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE DUE TO LOW RH
LEVELS BUT ALSO A PUBLIC CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY PUSH UP TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES AGAIN PRE-FRONTAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. A TASTE OF WINTER
WEATHER IS ON TAP THIS FORECAST PERIOD. H5 HEIGHTS WILL PLUMMET 20
DECAMETERS ...WITH THE MODELS PINGING INTO A SURFACE LOW DIRECTLY
OVER NORTHERN NV. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
DEPICTING A 999 MB LOW OVER BATTLE MOUNTAIN 00Z ON SATURDAY. AS TIME
ELAPSES...THE ECMWF...HAS A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE THE GFS IS POSITIVE
TILT. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH TIMING OF THE FROPA NOT
CONSISTENT...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE QPF EVENT.  EITHER WAY...EXPECTING
A FETCH A PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH GOOD FGEN FORCING ACROSS THE LKN CWA. GENERALLY EXPECTING MT
SNOW AND VALLEY SHOWERS. AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS INTO UTAH
SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA...WITH H7
TEMPERATURES OF -6C -8C...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS
MANY LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS...POSES A SMALL
CONCERN. THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME OF GUSTINESS TO WARRANT AN
EVENT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVES CLOSE
TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING....WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457. EXPECT WINDS TO
AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THE DANGER OF
FIRE SPREAD IN THE DORMANT FUELS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97/92







000
FXUS65 KLKN 282200
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
300 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO ENJOY A WARMING TREND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON
THURSDAY. HALLOWEEN WILL BE DRY AND MILD...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTH
WINDS. THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...

CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN BE STRONG TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE,
PROVIDING MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS RETURN
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND THICNESSES PEAK.
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED. FORECASTED 72 AT
THE ELKO AIRPORT, AND THE RECORD HIGH AT ELKO FOR OCTOBER 30 IS 74
SET IN 1965.

HALLOWEEN...WINDY, MILD AND DRY. STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVES ON
THE WEST COAST AROUND 5 PM, A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
MODELS RESOLVING A SLOWER SOLUTION AS A STRONG STORM APPROACHES IS A
TYPICAL CORRECTION, AS THE JET ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH IS INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING,
RAIN/SNOW WILL MOVE INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING, BUT
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
11 PM. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY, AND REMAIN SO FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE TRICK OR TREATERS, WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE WIND
WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND TEMPERATURES ELEVATED FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SATURDAY...FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON EXPECTED. FOLLOWED ECMWF
SOLUTIONS IN THE GRIDS CLOSELY. NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH SWEEPING
THROUGH NEVADA WILL PACK A LOT OF ENERGY, AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE INTENSE SATURDAY MORNING. WITH A SLOWER, STRONGER SOLUTION
IN MIND, DELAYED THE ONSET OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS BY AT LEAST 6 HOURS
OR SO, EXPECTED NOW NEAR ELKO/SPRING CREEK AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ALONG THE
FRONT, WITH INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.
INCREASED SNOW COVERAGE TO 90-100% FOR MOST OF NEVADA WHEN THIS
STRONG FORCING PUNCHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. QUICK ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LIKELY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES, BUT FORCING FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ONLY LAST 3-6 HOURS FOR ANY ONE LOCATION, AS
SUCH THE STORM SYSTEM`S PROGRESSIVE NATURE WILL KEEP SNOWFALL
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR MOST VALLEYS. ECMWF PLACES ITS SURFACE
LOW NEAR WENDOVER AT 5 AM SATURDAY, NEAR GREAT SALT LAKE AT
MIDDAY, AND SW WYOMING BY 5 PM. SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS NE NEVADA,
ESPECIALLY ELKO COUNTY, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE AND STRONG
NEGATIVE-TILT VORT MAX PUNCHES THROUGH UTAH. WITH MODELS HINTING A
SLOWER, STRONGER SOLUTION WITH A BIT MORE RESIDENCE TIME, SOME OF
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS SUCH AS THE RUBIES MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A
FOOT OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS TO
APPROACH 6 INCHES WILL BE ON THE NW- FACING SLOPES. NW FLOW WILL
CUT OFF SNOW PRODUCTION AT ELKO PROPER RELATIVELY EARLY SATURDAY,
WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE OFF THE ADOBE MOUNTAINS. THE FIRST WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES OF THE SEASON ARE LIKELY, BUT STILL HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHICH LOCATIONS, IF ANY, WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA. DRAMATICALLY COLDER SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND WIND CHILLS LESS THAN THAT. WILL
UPDATE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUTLINING THIS DRAMATIC
CHANGE TO WINTER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS INTO UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO KEEP SUNDAY MORNINGS LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING TOO MUCH. HOWEVER...WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
OF -8C AND SOME EXPECTED SNOW COVER...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO
THE TEENS MANY LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING. DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
LOFT REMAINS OVER NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY FOR DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE ID-NV BORDER WHERE SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. JH

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALLOW VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. JH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA (FWZ 454, 455 AND
457). EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS AT TIMES IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD IN A DRY AIRMASS
(DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS) TO PRODUCE MIN RH OF 15-18%. CONTINUE
TO FEEL RH WILL NOT MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
CLOSE, AND THE DANGER OF FIRE SPREAD IN THE DORMANT FUELS WILL
CERTAINLY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87/99









000
FXUS65 KLKN 281009
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
308 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER ACROSS NEVADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD WINTER-LIKE
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO MOST OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
ON WEDNESDAY WHILE REMAINING OVER OUR AREA...THEN AMPLIFY SOME
MORE ON THURSDAY WHILE SHIFTING EAST A BIT. AS THIS OCCURS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BUT THE WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
COUNTERACT THEM AND RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. LOWS
WILL ALSO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH NIGHT. RCM

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A NASTY HALLOWEEN WEEKEND
APPROACHING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF
THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO GET NUDGED EAST BY AN INCOMING PACIFIC
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
LEADING 110KT JET STRUCTURE WILL STRETCH AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN
NEVADA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND A 100-110KT JET CORE WILL CRUISE ALOFT
OF NEVADA. EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
ELKO SOME TIME AROUND MID-EVENING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
PUSH UP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES PRE-FRONTAL. TRICK-OR-TREATERS WILL
NEED TO HOLD THEIR GOODIE BAGS TIGHT AS GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LOOK TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
AND WHITE PINE COUNTY. EXPECTING WIND GUSTS IN THE 40S BUT NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SNOW WILL DIP DOWN TO THE 8000 FEET LEVEL...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DOWN
TO 7500 FEET AFTER DARK. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE OREGON AND IDAHO BORDERS AS THE AIR MASS QUICKLY
DESTABILIZES.

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS WHEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE BRINGING WITH IT SOME VERY COLD AIR. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
DROPPING RAPIDLY TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. PRE-
WARMED GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB SOME OF THE
INITIAL MOISTURE AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE ELEVATED AT FIRST
AS WELL...HOWEVER A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS
EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
STRUGGLE IN THE 30S. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY IMPULSE BRINGING
ANOTHER...COLDER...SHOT OF AIR INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEVADA AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER THERE IS SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY AS A GENERAL DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING WEAK IMPULSES TO CONTINUE TO
OFFER UP SOME INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALLOW
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

93/92/92/93









000
FXUS65 KLKN 281008
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
308 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER ACROSS NEVADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD WINTER-LIKE
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO MOST OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
ON WEDNESDAY WHILE REMAINING OVER OUR AREA...THEN AMPLIFY SOME
MORE ON THURSDAY WHILE SHIFTING EAST A BIT. AS THIS OCCURS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BUT THE WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
COUNTERACT THEM AND RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. LOWS
WILL ALSO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH NIGHT. RCM

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A NASTY HALLOWEEN WEEKEND
APPROACHING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF
THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO GET NUDGED EAST BY AN INCOMING PACIFIC
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
LEADING 110KT JET STRUCTURE WILL STRETCH AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN
NEVADA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND A 100-110KT JET CORE WILL CRUISE ALOFT
OF NEVADA. EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
ELKO SOME TIME AROUND MID-EVENING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
PUSH UP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES PRE-FRONTAL. TRICK-OR-TREATERS WILL
NEED TO HOLD THEIR GOODIE BAGS TIGHT AS GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LOOK TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
AND WHITE PINE COUNTY. EXPECTING WIND GUSTS IN THE 40S BUT NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SNOW WILL DIP DOWN TO THE 8000 FEET LEVEL...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DOWN
TO 7500 FEET AFTER DARK. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE OREGON AND IDAHO BORDERS AS THE AIR MASS QUICKLY
DESTABILIZES.

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS WHEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE BRINGING WITH IT SOME VERY COLD AIR. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
DROPPING RAPIDLY TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. PRE-
WARMED GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB SOME OF THE
INITIAL MOISTURE AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE ELEVATED AT FIRST
AS WELL...HOWEVER A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS
EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
STRUGGLE IN THE 30S. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY IMPULSE BRINGING
ANOTHER...COLDER...SHOT OF AIR INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEVADA AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER THERE IS SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY AS A GENERAL DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING WEAK IMPULSES TO CONTINUE TO
OFFER UP SOME INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALLOW
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

93/92/92/93






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities