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000
FXUS65 KLKN 272216
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
216 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW INCREASES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN DEVIATE SLIGHTLY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA FAIRLY
"DIRTY" WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING EASTERN NV WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH SPREADS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
SOUTHWARD INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER. THE
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
LATEST EC AND NAM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM DROPPING
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY ...BUT EVEN SO ANY
PRECIPITION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITION OVER THE NORTHERN
NV ON SUNDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS INCREASE OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS OVER THIS AREA FOR LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IS THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE ON AGREEMENT OF ARRIVAL OF PACIFIC STORMS.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND ABOVE 6,000 FEET SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER GFS AND GEFS KEEP FRONT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHILE
NAM AND ECMWF PUSH FRONT FARTHER SOUTH TO JUST SOUTH OF THE RUBIES.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING FOR TRAVELERS
RETURNING HOME AFTER THE HOLIDAY MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO GFS MOVING RIDGE ACROSS NEVADA FASTER
AND BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER EC KEEPS THE AREA DRY...DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES LOWERED
POPS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH GFS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE EC DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE AND
KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH LESS
MOISTURE. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...THEREFORE LOWERED
POPS DURING PERIOD DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE
MOISTURE. RLC

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AT KEKO
AND KWMC TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RLC

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/90




000
FXUS65 KLKN 272216
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
216 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW INCREASES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN DEVIATE SLIGHTLY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA FAIRLY
"DIRTY" WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING EASTERN NV WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH SPREADS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
SOUTHWARD INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER. THE
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
LATEST EC AND NAM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM DROPPING
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY ...BUT EVEN SO ANY
PRECIPITION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITION OVER THE NORTHERN
NV ON SUNDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS INCREASE OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS OVER THIS AREA FOR LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IS THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE ON AGREEMENT OF ARRIVAL OF PACIFIC STORMS.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND ABOVE 6,000 FEET SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER GFS AND GEFS KEEP FRONT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHILE
NAM AND ECMWF PUSH FRONT FARTHER SOUTH TO JUST SOUTH OF THE RUBIES.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING FOR TRAVELERS
RETURNING HOME AFTER THE HOLIDAY MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO GFS MOVING RIDGE ACROSS NEVADA FASTER
AND BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER EC KEEPS THE AREA DRY...DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES LOWERED
POPS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH GFS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE EC DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE AND
KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH LESS
MOISTURE. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...THEREFORE LOWERED
POPS DURING PERIOD DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE
MOISTURE. RLC

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AT KEKO
AND KWMC TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RLC

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/90





000
FXUS65 KLKN 272207
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
207 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW INCREASES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN DEVIATE SLIGHTLY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA FAIRLY
"DIRTY" WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING EASTERN NV WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH SPREADS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
SOUTHWARD INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER. THE
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
LATEST EC AND NAM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM DROPPING
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY ...BUT EVEN SO ANY
PRECIPITION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITION OVER THE NORTHERN
NV ON SUNDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS INCREASE OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS OVER THIS AREA FOR LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IS THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE ON AGREEMENT OF ARRIVAL OF PACIFIC STORMS.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND ABOVE 6,000 FEET SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER GFS AND GEFS KEEP FRONT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHILE
NAM AND ECMWF PUSH FRONT FARTHER SOUTH TO JUST SOUTH OF THE RUBIES.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING FOR TRAVELERS
RETURNING HOME AFTER THE HOLIDAY MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO GFS MOVING RIDGE ACROSS NEVADA FASTER
AND BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER EC KEEPS THE AREA DRY...DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES LOWERED
POPS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/90




000
FXUS65 KLKN 272207
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
207 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW INCREASES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN DEVIATE SLIGHTLY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA FAIRLY
"DIRTY" WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING EASTERN NV WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH SPREADS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
SOUTHWARD INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER. THE
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
LATEST EC AND NAM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM DROPPING
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY ...BUT EVEN SO ANY
PRECIPITION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITION OVER THE NORTHERN
NV ON SUNDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS INCREASE OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS OVER THIS AREA FOR LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IS THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE ON AGREEMENT OF ARRIVAL OF PACIFIC STORMS.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND ABOVE 6,000 FEET SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER GFS AND GEFS KEEP FRONT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHILE
NAM AND ECMWF PUSH FRONT FARTHER SOUTH TO JUST SOUTH OF THE RUBIES.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING FOR TRAVELERS
RETURNING HOME AFTER THE HOLIDAY MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO GFS MOVING RIDGE ACROSS NEVADA FASTER
AND BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER EC KEEPS THE AREA DRY...DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES LOWERED
POPS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/90





000
FXUS65 KLKN 271206
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
406 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW INCREASES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS STARTS
OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY BUT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A STRONG WAVE MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
COAST AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FLATTENS THE RIDGE BY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BY
SATURDAY...THE PATTERN GETS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN TROUGH FILLING SOMEWHAT AND MOVING EAST. IN ITS
WAKE...THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN CONUS BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL.

NORMALLY...THIS WOULD BE A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN. HOWEVER...ALREADY
THIS RIDGE IS QUITE DIRTY WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SUBTROPICAL
CONNECTION IN THE WATER VAPOR...AND EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MORE COMING.

DECIDED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS TODAY ALL AREAS BY 2-3 DEGREES IN
RESPONSE TO CLOUD COVER. POPS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT
THE ONLY REAL DOUBLE DIGIT POPS ARE ALONG THE IDAHO-OREGON BORDER
REGIONS. EVEN THEN...THE AIR IS STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY A
RAIN EVENT WITH SNOW ONLY IN THE MOUNTAIN ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET TO
START DROPPING TO ABOVE 6500 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED IN THE NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY.

BOTTOM LINE FOR TURKEY DAY...WARM-ISH...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS...AND DRY. INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE VALLEYS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A STORMY AND INCLEMENT PATTERN AS SYSTEMS MOVE IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. HOWEVER...STILL SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WHICH LEADS TO GENERAL LIMITED
CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE MINIMAL AND CONSISTED PRIMARILY
OF MATCHING CLOSELY WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY NIGHT
ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM...EC HAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE REGION WHILE
GFS TRIES TO PUMP A RIDGE BACK UP FOR MONDAY. BY TUESDAY BOTH
MODELS HAVE A CLOSED LOW LURKING OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO A RIDGE ON BOTH MODELS OVER OUR
AREA...THOUGH GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. BY WEDNESDAY...GFS
BRINGS THIS SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WHILE EC HAS A RIDGE REMAINING
OVER THE AREA. SO...OVERALL THE GFS IS WETTER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EURO IS WETTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL...AND AT SOME POINT SNOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY DROP TO
VALLEY FLOORS BOTH WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AND THE ONE LATER IN THE
WEEK...BUT STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING SO GENERALLY KEPT THEM
JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

98/93/93




000
FXUS65 KLKN 271206
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
406 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW INCREASES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS STARTS
OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY BUT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A STRONG WAVE MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
COAST AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FLATTENS THE RIDGE BY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BY
SATURDAY...THE PATTERN GETS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN TROUGH FILLING SOMEWHAT AND MOVING EAST. IN ITS
WAKE...THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN CONUS BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL.

NORMALLY...THIS WOULD BE A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN. HOWEVER...ALREADY
THIS RIDGE IS QUITE DIRTY WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SUBTROPICAL
CONNECTION IN THE WATER VAPOR...AND EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MORE COMING.

DECIDED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS TODAY ALL AREAS BY 2-3 DEGREES IN
RESPONSE TO CLOUD COVER. POPS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT
THE ONLY REAL DOUBLE DIGIT POPS ARE ALONG THE IDAHO-OREGON BORDER
REGIONS. EVEN THEN...THE AIR IS STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY A
RAIN EVENT WITH SNOW ONLY IN THE MOUNTAIN ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET TO
START DROPPING TO ABOVE 6500 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED IN THE NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY.

BOTTOM LINE FOR TURKEY DAY...WARM-ISH...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS...AND DRY. INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE VALLEYS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A STORMY AND INCLEMENT PATTERN AS SYSTEMS MOVE IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. HOWEVER...STILL SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WHICH LEADS TO GENERAL LIMITED
CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE MINIMAL AND CONSISTED PRIMARILY
OF MATCHING CLOSELY WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY NIGHT
ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM...EC HAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE REGION WHILE
GFS TRIES TO PUMP A RIDGE BACK UP FOR MONDAY. BY TUESDAY BOTH
MODELS HAVE A CLOSED LOW LURKING OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO A RIDGE ON BOTH MODELS OVER OUR
AREA...THOUGH GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. BY WEDNESDAY...GFS
BRINGS THIS SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WHILE EC HAS A RIDGE REMAINING
OVER THE AREA. SO...OVERALL THE GFS IS WETTER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EURO IS WETTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL...AND AT SOME POINT SNOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY DROP TO
VALLEY FLOORS BOTH WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AND THE ONE LATER IN THE
WEEK...BUT STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING SO GENERALLY KEPT THEM
JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

98/93/93





000
FXUS65 KLKN 262211
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
211 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW INCREASES BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATION
VALLEYS REACHING NEAR 60 ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST 500MB SHORTWAVE...
THUS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IN MOST
AREAS. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...TROF AXIS MOVES ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. NORTHERN THIRD
OF NEVADA MAYBE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA UNDER DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST IS COMPLICATED AND MESSY, FROM A FORECASTER
PERSPECTIVE, AS MODELS STRUGGLE HOW TO HANDLE A LARGE CUTOFF LOW IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CUTOFF LOW, FORECASTER`S WOE.

ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SLIP INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, SPREADING BANDS OR RAIN AND SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. INCREASED POP COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HUMBOLDT/ELKO COUNTIES, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN NOCTORNAL TIMING AND COLDER ROAD
TEMPERATURES ALLOWING SOME SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. ONE OF THOSE RARE
CASES WHEN AN IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR HOLIDAY
TRAVEL, DESPITE IT FALLING ON A WEEKEND.

SUNDAY...FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA, WITH A NOTABLY
COOLER AIRMASS RETURNING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, AS LARGE CUTOFF LOW IN THE PACIFIC
INCHES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA. ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
ELKO/HUMBOLDT COUNTIES AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTH, AND A MILDER
AIRMASS ARRIVES.

MONDAY...REDUCED RAIN/SNOW COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, 12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE STILL MUCH DRIER THAN MY DRIER POP
GRIDS INDICATE. MODELS NOW KEEP CUTOFF LOW WELL TO THE WEST OF
NEVADA ON MONDAY, WITH NEVADA RESIDING IN A MOSTLY DRY WARM SECTOR.
INCREASED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S, BUT KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

SO THE QUESTION BECOMES WHEN AND HOW FAST THE PACIFIC CUTOFF MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW
ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME, BUT EXACTLY WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
WILL FALL IS ANYONE`S, OR ANY MODEL`S, GUESS. GFS TENDS TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND FAST IN THESE SITUATIONS, SO TRENDED THE GRIDS
TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF. ECMWF KEEPS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER NE
NEVADA TUESDAY FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER, FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY FEEL MUCH OF
THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF EJECTING CUTOFF LOW KEEPING THE SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE MOST
VALLEY FLOORS. BT

 &&

.AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 00Z FRI. BKN/OVC MID/HIGH
CLOUD DECKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. BT
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 262211
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
211 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW INCREASES BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATION
VALLEYS REACHING NEAR 60 ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST 500MB SHORTWAVE...
THUS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IN MOST
AREAS. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...TROF AXIS MOVES ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. NORTHERN THIRD
OF NEVADA MAYBE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA UNDER DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST IS COMPLICATED AND MESSY, FROM A FORECASTER
PERSPECTIVE, AS MODELS STRUGGLE HOW TO HANDLE A LARGE CUTOFF LOW IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CUTOFF LOW, FORECASTER`S WOE.

ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SLIP INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, SPREADING BANDS OR RAIN AND SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. INCREASED POP COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HUMBOLDT/ELKO COUNTIES, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN NOCTORNAL TIMING AND COLDER ROAD
TEMPERATURES ALLOWING SOME SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. ONE OF THOSE RARE
CASES WHEN AN IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR HOLIDAY
TRAVEL, DESPITE IT FALLING ON A WEEKEND.

SUNDAY...FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA, WITH A NOTABLY
COOLER AIRMASS RETURNING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, AS LARGE CUTOFF LOW IN THE PACIFIC
INCHES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA. ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
ELKO/HUMBOLDT COUNTIES AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTH, AND A MILDER
AIRMASS ARRIVES.

MONDAY...REDUCED RAIN/SNOW COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, 12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE STILL MUCH DRIER THAN MY DRIER POP
GRIDS INDICATE. MODELS NOW KEEP CUTOFF LOW WELL TO THE WEST OF
NEVADA ON MONDAY, WITH NEVADA RESIDING IN A MOSTLY DRY WARM SECTOR.
INCREASED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S, BUT KEPT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

SO THE QUESTION BECOMES WHEN AND HOW FAST THE PACIFIC CUTOFF MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW
ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME, BUT EXACTLY WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
WILL FALL IS ANYONE`S, OR ANY MODEL`S, GUESS. GFS TENDS TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND FAST IN THESE SITUATIONS, SO TRENDED THE GRIDS
TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF. ECMWF KEEPS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER NE
NEVADA TUESDAY FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER, FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY FEEL MUCH OF
THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF EJECTING CUTOFF LOW KEEPING THE SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE MOST
VALLEY FLOORS. BT

 &&

.AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 00Z FRI. BKN/OVC MID/HIGH
CLOUD DECKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. BT
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 261044
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
244 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT LATE FALL WEATHER TO
THE REGION THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
INCREASES BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACH NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL
CREST OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
FANTASTIC WEATHER WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS REACHING NEAR
60. MORE OF THE SAME ON THANKSGIVING WITH JUST A FEW MORE HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COMPARED TO TODAY.

FRIDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC NORTHWEST 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 700-500MB MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE SO EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO TREND DOWN...BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THOUGH AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AT THE START...FAST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA WHILE
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS. A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC EARLY SUNDAY WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME AM HESITANT TO MAKE A
LARGE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST JUST YET. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MOST PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF
THE STATE...BEFORE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES THE COAST TOWARDS
MIDWEEK. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT JUST WHEN IT MOVES
INLAND...WITH THE EURO LAGGING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IT THROUGH TUESDAY. EITHER WAY...MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
STORMY...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY SLIDE DOWNWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

95/99/93





000
FXUS65 KLKN 261044
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
244 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT LATE FALL WEATHER TO
THE REGION THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
INCREASES BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACH NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL
CREST OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
FANTASTIC WEATHER WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS REACHING NEAR
60. MORE OF THE SAME ON THANKSGIVING WITH JUST A FEW MORE HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COMPARED TO TODAY.

FRIDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC NORTHWEST 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 700-500MB MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE SO EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO TREND DOWN...BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THOUGH AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AT THE START...FAST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA WHILE
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS. A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC EARLY SUNDAY WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME AM HESITANT TO MAKE A
LARGE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST JUST YET. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MOST PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF
THE STATE...BEFORE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES THE COAST TOWARDS
MIDWEEK. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT JUST WHEN IT MOVES
INLAND...WITH THE EURO LAGGING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IT THROUGH TUESDAY. EITHER WAY...MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
STORMY...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY SLIDE DOWNWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

95/99/93




000
FXUS65 KLKN 252247
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
247 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE WEST COAST BRINGING
DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALLOWING
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NV THANKSGIVING
DAY AND LEFTOVER DAY FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT VERY MILD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS BREAK THE RIDGE
DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
CALIFORNIA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ALONG THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGE BRIEF REBUILDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS OVER MOST OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO
UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON MONDAY AS
THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH PUSHING TROF INTO NORTHERN CA AND THUS
SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO EASTERN NV QUICKER...WHEREAS THE EC
CONFINES THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES IT
FASTER SPEED WITH THE TROF MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SOME DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA. HAVE
JUST LOW POPS NEXT TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING OF MODELS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAF
SITES AT TIMES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/87/87




000
FXUS65 KLKN 252247
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
247 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE WEST COAST BRINGING
DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALLOWING
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NV THANKSGIVING
DAY AND LEFTOVER DAY FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT VERY MILD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS BREAK THE RIDGE
DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
CALIFORNIA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ALONG THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGE BRIEF REBUILDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS OVER MOST OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO
UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON MONDAY AS
THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH PUSHING TROF INTO NORTHERN CA AND THUS
SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO EASTERN NV QUICKER...WHEREAS THE EC
CONFINES THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES IT
FASTER SPEED WITH THE TROF MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SOME DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA. HAVE
JUST LOW POPS NEXT TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING OF MODELS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAF
SITES AT TIMES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/87/87





000
FXUS65 KLKN 251032 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT WARMING TREND THROUGH
THANKSGIVING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RAIN
AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

STRONG 592 DM UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING,
CENTERED WEST OF LOS ANGELES. NW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NEVADA THIS MORNING, ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW, PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SE INTO NE NEVADA THIS MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, KEEPING THE SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY,
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THICKNESSES CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO
EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING DESPITE THE CLOUDS. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS NYE COUNTY, WHERE UPPER 50S
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH 582 DM HEIGHTS AT ELKO BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY, WITH 50S COMMON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW ZONES. MUCH FEWER
CLOUDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING PERFECT WEATHER
TO DRIVE TO GRANDMA`S HOUSE.

THANKSGIVING...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FLATTENS A BIT OVER
NEVADA, BUT NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON,
WITH MANY VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES. FORECASTING A HIGH OF 58 AT THE
ELKO AIRPORT, WHICH IS 16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL APPROACH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS ACROSS NEVADA THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT
THE NICEST THANKSGIVING FORECAST YOU COULD EVER HOPE FOR IN
NORTHERN NEVADA.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BUT
LARGE RUN-TO-RUN SWINGS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
CONTINUE IN THE MODELS...AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH IS PRUDENT AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS AND PRECIP WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BRINGING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PARKS ITSELF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
SILVER STATE...BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 AND SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE
6500FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL THOUGH...WITH WARM TEMPS AND
ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...COULD BE SOME WIND
CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. TIMING WISE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SHOWING THE 500MB TROUGH SWINGING INTO NEVADA SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME...WITH DEEP 700-300MB
PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME MID-DECK CLOUDS THE REGION. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE STRAIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/95/95




000
FXUS65 KLKN 251032 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT WARMING TREND THROUGH
THANKSGIVING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RAIN
AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

STRONG 592 DM UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING,
CENTERED WEST OF LOS ANGELES. NW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NEVADA THIS MORNING, ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW, PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SE INTO NE NEVADA THIS MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, KEEPING THE SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY,
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THICKNESSES CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO
EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING DESPITE THE CLOUDS. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS NYE COUNTY, WHERE UPPER 50S
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH 582 DM HEIGHTS AT ELKO BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY, WITH 50S COMMON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW ZONES. MUCH FEWER
CLOUDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING PERFECT WEATHER
TO DRIVE TO GRANDMA`S HOUSE.

THANKSGIVING...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FLATTENS A BIT OVER
NEVADA, BUT NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON,
WITH MANY VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES. FORECASTING A HIGH OF 58 AT THE
ELKO AIRPORT, WHICH IS 16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL APPROACH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS ACROSS NEVADA THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT
THE NICEST THANKSGIVING FORECAST YOU COULD EVER HOPE FOR IN
NORTHERN NEVADA.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BUT
LARGE RUN-TO-RUN SWINGS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
CONTINUE IN THE MODELS...AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH IS PRUDENT AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS AND PRECIP WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BRINGING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PARKS ITSELF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
SILVER STATE...BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 AND SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE
6500FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL THOUGH...WITH WARM TEMPS AND
ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...COULD BE SOME WIND
CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. TIMING WISE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SHOWING THE 500MB TROUGH SWINGING INTO NEVADA SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME...WITH DEEP 700-300MB
PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME MID-DECK CLOUDS THE REGION. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE STRAIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/95/95





000
FXUS65 KLKN 251030
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT WARMING TREND THROUGH
THANKSGIVING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RAIN
AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

STRONG 592 DM UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING,
CENTERED WEST OF LOS ANGELES. NW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NEVADA THIS MORNING, ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW, PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SE INTO NE NEVADA THIS MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, KEEPING THE SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY,
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THICKNESSES CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO
EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING DESPITE THE CLOUDS. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS NYE COUNTY, WHERE UPPER 50S
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH 582 DM HEIGHTS AT ELKO BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY, WITH 50S COMMON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW ZONES. MUCH FEWER
CLOUDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING PERFECT WEATHER
TO DRIVE TO GRANDMA`S HOUSE.

THANKSGIVING...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FLATTENS A BIT OVER
NEVADA, BUT NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON,
WITH MANY VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES. FORECASTING A HIGH OF 58 AT THE
ELKO AIRPORT, WHICH IS 16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL APPROACH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS ACROSS NEVADA THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT
THE NICEST THANKSGIVING FORECAST YOU COULD EVER HOPE FOR IN
NORTHERN NEVADA.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BUT
LARGE RUN-TO-RUN SWINGS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
CONTINUE IN THE MODELS...AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH IS PRUDENT AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS AND PRECIP WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BRINGING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PARKS ITSELF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
SILVER STATE...BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 AND SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE
6500FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL THOUGH...WITH WARM TEMPS AND
ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...COULD BE SOME WIND
CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. TIMING WISE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SHOWING THE 500MB TROUGH SWINGING INTO NEVADA SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME...WITH DEEP 700-300MB
PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME MID-DECK CLOUDS THE REGION. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE STRAIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/95/95




000
FXUS65 KLKN 251030
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT WARMING TREND THROUGH
THANKSGIVING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RAIN
AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

STRONG 592 DM UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING,
CENTERED WEST OF LOS ANGELES. NW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NEVADA THIS MORNING, ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW, PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SE INTO NE NEVADA THIS MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, KEEPING THE SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY,
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THICKNESSES CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO
EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING DESPITE THE CLOUDS. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS NYE COUNTY, WHERE UPPER 50S
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH 582 DM HEIGHTS AT ELKO BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY, WITH 50S COMMON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW ZONES. MUCH FEWER
CLOUDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING PERFECT WEATHER
TO DRIVE TO GRANDMA`S HOUSE.

THANKSGIVING...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND FLATTENS A BIT OVER
NEVADA, BUT NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON,
WITH MANY VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES. FORECASTING A HIGH OF 58 AT THE
ELKO AIRPORT, WHICH IS 16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL APPROACH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS ACROSS NEVADA THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. JUST ABOUT
THE NICEST THANKSGIVING FORECAST YOU COULD EVER HOPE FOR IN
NORTHERN NEVADA.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS MOIST PACIFIC FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BUT
LARGE RUN-TO-RUN SWINGS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
CONTINUE IN THE MODELS...AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH IS PRUDENT AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS AND PRECIP WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BRINGING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PARKS ITSELF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
SILVER STATE...BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 AND SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE
6500FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING RETURN TRAVEL THOUGH...WITH WARM TEMPS AND
ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA...COULD BE SOME WIND
CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. TIMING WISE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SHOWING THE 500MB TROUGH SWINGING INTO NEVADA SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME...WITH DEEP 700-300MB
PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME MID-DECK CLOUDS THE REGION. GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE STRAIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/95/95





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