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000
FXUS65 KLKN 011141
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
341 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALL AROUND.
THAT WILL CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE DE-AMPLIFIES LATER TODAY. THE
RIDGE WILL RETAIN A LOW AMPLIFICATION PROFILE THROUGH TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A DIRTY FLOW WHICH MEANS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE TO INFILTRATE NORTHERN NEVADA...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN MOST
VALLEYS AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 6500 FEET PERIODICALLY
LOWERING TO 6000 FEET. FOR THE MOST PART PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING
AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BREACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA. WITH MILD AIR
IN PLACE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS. BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER
MOSTLY DRY AND VERY MILD. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
OF US AND WE START TO GET A STRONGER MOISTURE FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC. THIS FAR OUT...SHORTWAVES ARE TOUGH TO TIME...BUT BEST
SHOT OF PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA. WOULDN`T BET ON IT THOUGH GIVEN THE FAST FLOW. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS STAYING WELL TO THE WEST...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS NEXT 24 HOURS ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/93/93





000
FXUS65 KLKN 011141
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
341 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALL AROUND.
THAT WILL CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE DE-AMPLIFIES LATER TODAY. THE
RIDGE WILL RETAIN A LOW AMPLIFICATION PROFILE THROUGH TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A DIRTY FLOW WHICH MEANS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE TO INFILTRATE NORTHERN NEVADA...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN MOST
VALLEYS AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 6500 FEET PERIODICALLY
LOWERING TO 6000 FEET. FOR THE MOST PART PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING
AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BREACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA. WITH MILD AIR
IN PLACE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS. BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER
MOSTLY DRY AND VERY MILD. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
OF US AND WE START TO GET A STRONGER MOISTURE FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC. THIS FAR OUT...SHORTWAVES ARE TOUGH TO TIME...BUT BEST
SHOT OF PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA. WOULDN`T BET ON IT THOUGH GIVEN THE FAST FLOW. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS STAYING WELL TO THE WEST...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS NEXT 24 HOURS ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/93/93




000
FXUS65 KLKN 312255
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
255 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SUNDAY. MILD AND MOIST PACIFIC AIR
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN NEVADA MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV TONIGHT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ALLOWING PACIFIC
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BREAK OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL
LANDER/CENTRAL EUREKA COUNTIES AND THE FAR NRN PORTION OF WHITE
PINE COUNTY. WITH THE MILD AIR SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH,
GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FEET NORTHERN NV AND 7500 FEET CENTRAL NV.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST KICKS THE WEAK SYSTEM INTO UTAH. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS
IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF HAS THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT KELY AND KTPH. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THEN THICKEN AND LOWER TO MID-LEVELS ON
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ALONG THE NV/ID BORDER SUNDAY EVENING
WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO KWMC AND KEKO EARLY MONDAY.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 312255
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
255 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SUNDAY. MILD AND MOIST PACIFIC AIR
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN NEVADA MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV TONIGHT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ALLOWING PACIFIC
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BREAK OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL
LANDER/CENTRAL EUREKA COUNTIES AND THE FAR NRN PORTION OF WHITE
PINE COUNTY. WITH THE MILD AIR SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH,
GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FEET NORTHERN NV AND 7500 FEET CENTRAL NV.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST KICKS THE WEAK SYSTEM INTO UTAH. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS
IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF HAS THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT KELY AND KTPH. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THEN THICKEN AND LOWER TO MID-LEVELS ON
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ALONG THE NV/ID BORDER SUNDAY EVENING
WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO KWMC AND KEKO EARLY MONDAY.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 311019
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
219 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY WILL COME TO AN
END. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENVELOP THE SILVER STATE TO BRING DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN A BIT EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HAVE
FALLEN TO FREEZING ACROSS THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE
LINCOLN/CLARK COUNTY BORDER AT THIS TIME...A PERFECT SETUP TO
YIELD A HIGH DOSE OF SNOW TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RANGE
AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE...THE SCHELL CREEK RANGE FURTHER
WEST. SNOW LEVELS HAVE LOWERED TO NEAR 6000 FEET. KELY...HOVERING
AROUND FREEZING...IS CURRENTLY GETTING SHADOWED OUT FROM THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOIST FLOW AS PREDICTED...BUT HAVE RECEIVED
INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY. CURRENTLY IN A PERFECT EAST SLOPE WRAP-AROUND POSITION TO
YIELD HIGH-QUANTITY SNOWFALL FOR THE SNAKE AND SCHELL CREEK
RANGES OF WHITE PINE COUNTY...THE UPPER LOW FEATURE WILL BE
RAPIDLY DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AS A NARROW BUT EXTREMELY POSITIVE
TILTED RIDGE PROTRUDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE
REAL KICKER...ENERGY AROUND AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. THE MOIST FLOW WILL ABRUPTLY END FOR THE LKN CWFA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO THE NOTION THAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY
ALL AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE
AXIS OF A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...EFFECTIVELY IN THE
20S. A BRIEF WARMING TREND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MAX
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 50 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING COULD HOLD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER THE PERMA-LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS
WILL SPIN OFF ENOUGH ENERGY TO SEND SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WEAKENED RIDGE FEATURE...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WITH A GROWING CONCERN THAT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT.
NO ISSUES ARE FORESEEN WITH THIS DIRTY FLOW HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS
MAY DIP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARMING AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWFA...IN THE 20S AGAIN. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY AROUND FREEZING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AGAIN WARMER TOWARDS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING. MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN NEVADA FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 NORTHWARD. BY THURSDAY
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF
NEVADA FOR DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION..MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS TO KELY THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. CIGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR
AT KWMC AFT 00Z.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94





000
FXUS65 KLKN 311019
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
219 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY WILL COME TO AN
END. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENVELOP THE SILVER STATE TO BRING DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN A BIT EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HAVE
FALLEN TO FREEZING ACROSS THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE
LINCOLN/CLARK COUNTY BORDER AT THIS TIME...A PERFECT SETUP TO
YIELD A HIGH DOSE OF SNOW TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RANGE
AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE...THE SCHELL CREEK RANGE FURTHER
WEST. SNOW LEVELS HAVE LOWERED TO NEAR 6000 FEET. KELY...HOVERING
AROUND FREEZING...IS CURRENTLY GETTING SHADOWED OUT FROM THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOIST FLOW AS PREDICTED...BUT HAVE RECEIVED
INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY. CURRENTLY IN A PERFECT EAST SLOPE WRAP-AROUND POSITION TO
YIELD HIGH-QUANTITY SNOWFALL FOR THE SNAKE AND SCHELL CREEK
RANGES OF WHITE PINE COUNTY...THE UPPER LOW FEATURE WILL BE
RAPIDLY DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AS A NARROW BUT EXTREMELY POSITIVE
TILTED RIDGE PROTRUDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE
REAL KICKER...ENERGY AROUND AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. THE MOIST FLOW WILL ABRUPTLY END FOR THE LKN CWFA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO THE NOTION THAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY
ALL AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE
AXIS OF A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...EFFECTIVELY IN THE
20S. A BRIEF WARMING TREND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MAX
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 50 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING COULD HOLD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER THE PERMA-LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS
WILL SPIN OFF ENOUGH ENERGY TO SEND SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WEAKENED RIDGE FEATURE...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WITH A GROWING CONCERN THAT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT.
NO ISSUES ARE FORESEEN WITH THIS DIRTY FLOW HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS
MAY DIP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARMING AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWFA...IN THE 20S AGAIN. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY AROUND FREEZING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AGAIN WARMER TOWARDS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING. MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN NEVADA FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 NORTHWARD. BY THURSDAY
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF
NEVADA FOR DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION..MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS TO KELY THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. CIGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR
AT KWMC AFT 00Z.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94




000
FXUS65 KLKN 302249
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
249 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP HAS A BATCH OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SOME PRECIPITATION OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER ANOTHER
DAY...AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE SILVER STATE. EXPECT
MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF JANUARY AND
THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE LONGWAVE
RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.THE PW FROM THE LATEST SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .44
OF AN INCH WHICH IS 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND LAS VEGAS HAD .77 OF
AN INCH WHICH IS 230 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE LKN CWA AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY PUSH OVER
AZ...WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION...BRINGING QPF TO WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE
COUNTIES. THE LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE THE
SCHELL CREEK AND SNAKE RANGES... AND GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH A VENGEANCE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE 568 DAM OVER ELKO BY 00Z
SUNDAY. SUFFICE TO SAY...ANTICIPATE MORE ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR ELKO ON JAN 31ST
IS 37F AND 38F ON FEB 1ST AND 2ND. FOR WMC...THE MEAN MAX TEMP ON
JAN 31ST...FEB 1ST AND FEB 2ND IS 44F...WHICH WILL BE EXCEEDED
HANDILY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING. MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN NEVADA FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 NORTHWARD. BY THURSDAY
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF
NEVADA FOR DRY WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING OCNL MVFR
CIGS TO KELY THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. CIGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AT
KWMC AFT 00Z.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/91/91





000
FXUS65 KLKN 302249
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
249 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP HAS A BATCH OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SOME PRECIPITATION OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER ANOTHER
DAY...AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE SILVER STATE. EXPECT
MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF JANUARY AND
THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE LONGWAVE
RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.THE PW FROM THE LATEST SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .44
OF AN INCH WHICH IS 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND LAS VEGAS HAD .77 OF
AN INCH WHICH IS 230 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE LKN CWA AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY PUSH OVER
AZ...WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION...BRINGING QPF TO WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE
COUNTIES. THE LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE THE
SCHELL CREEK AND SNAKE RANGES... AND GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH A VENGEANCE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE 568 DAM OVER ELKO BY 00Z
SUNDAY. SUFFICE TO SAY...ANTICIPATE MORE ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR ELKO ON JAN 31ST
IS 37F AND 38F ON FEB 1ST AND 2ND. FOR WMC...THE MEAN MAX TEMP ON
JAN 31ST...FEB 1ST AND FEB 2ND IS 44F...WHICH WILL BE EXCEEDED
HANDILY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING. MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN NEVADA FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 NORTHWARD. BY THURSDAY
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF
NEVADA FOR DRY WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING OCNL MVFR
CIGS TO KELY THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. CIGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AT
KWMC AFT 00Z.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/91/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 301018
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
218 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NEVADA. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
30S ACROSS THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL LOW
CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THIS
TIME. A MOIST FLOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO NEVADA AT THIS HOUR.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AT KELY HAS INCREASED ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

AS THE INCOMING LOW FEATURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SCOOPS UP
SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND FROM
THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW...SNOW
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 6500 TO
7000 FEET ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES TO BETWEEN 6000 AND
6500 FEET ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. THUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL BE THE NORM. THEN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO PUSH THE
TROUGH SOUTH...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS
SNOW LEVELS SLOWLY DESCEND TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RANGE IN WHITE PINE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
BENEFIT BEST FOR SNOW WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE EXITING
TROUGH...AND COULD RECEIVE OVER ONE FOOT OF SNOW TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN THAT HAS PLAGUED NEVADA THE PAST FEW WEEKS SHOWS SIGNS OF
RETURNING TO A MORE WETTER...OR AT LEAST...MORE INTERESTING
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
STORMS EXPECTED...BUT A FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY IMPACT NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH HOPE OF A LARGER ONE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP. BEST
CHANCES OR CONSENSUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA. DID
NOT GO WITH THE WETTER GFS AS THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER...BRINING
MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. DID PUT SOME GHOST
POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTH...FOCUS IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...SOME HOPE IN A DEEPENING MOIST PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVING INLAND INTO CALI...BUT BEING THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WE CAN ONLY HOPE THIS BRINGS A
PATTERN CHANGE AND BRING MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS INTO
NEVADA...WHICH IS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...KEKO/KWMC WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THERE WILL BE A SCT/BKN DECK AROUND 10K FT. THERE MAY BE SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND 3-4K FT. KELY WILL SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH FRI
MORNING AND MAY LAST LATE INTO FRI NIGHT. MVFR/IFR WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE CATEGORIES...BUT LIFR HAS OCCURRED. SOME -SHRA/-SHSN MAY
OCCUR IN KELY...ESPECIALLY DURING FRI LATE DAY/EVENING. KTPH WILL
SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND VCSH. MVFR IS POSSIBLE BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE IN TAF. CONFIDENCE IS 30% FOR MVFR.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94





000
FXUS65 KLKN 301018
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
218 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NEVADA. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
30S ACROSS THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL LOW
CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THIS
TIME. A MOIST FLOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO NEVADA AT THIS HOUR.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AT KELY HAS INCREASED ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

AS THE INCOMING LOW FEATURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SCOOPS UP
SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND FROM
THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW...SNOW
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 6500 TO
7000 FEET ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES TO BETWEEN 6000 AND
6500 FEET ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. THUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL BE THE NORM. THEN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO PUSH THE
TROUGH SOUTH...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS
SNOW LEVELS SLOWLY DESCEND TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RANGE IN WHITE PINE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
BENEFIT BEST FOR SNOW WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE EXITING
TROUGH...AND COULD RECEIVE OVER ONE FOOT OF SNOW TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN THAT HAS PLAGUED NEVADA THE PAST FEW WEEKS SHOWS SIGNS OF
RETURNING TO A MORE WETTER...OR AT LEAST...MORE INTERESTING
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
STORMS EXPECTED...BUT A FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY IMPACT NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH HOPE OF A LARGER ONE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP. BEST
CHANCES OR CONSENSUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA. DID
NOT GO WITH THE WETTER GFS AS THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER...BRINING
MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. DID PUT SOME GHOST
POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTH...FOCUS IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...SOME HOPE IN A DEEPENING MOIST PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVING INLAND INTO CALI...BUT BEING THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WE CAN ONLY HOPE THIS BRINGS A
PATTERN CHANGE AND BRING MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS INTO
NEVADA...WHICH IS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...KEKO/KWMC WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THERE WILL BE A SCT/BKN DECK AROUND 10K FT. THERE MAY BE SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND 3-4K FT. KELY WILL SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH FRI
MORNING AND MAY LAST LATE INTO FRI NIGHT. MVFR/IFR WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE CATEGORIES...BUT LIFR HAS OCCURRED. SOME -SHRA/-SHSN MAY
OCCUR IN KELY...ESPECIALLY DURING FRI LATE DAY/EVENING. KTPH WILL
SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND VCSH. MVFR IS POSSIBLE BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE IN TAF. CONFIDENCE IS 30% FOR MVFR.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94




000
FXUS65 KLKN 300557
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
957 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW IS CHURNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. MOST OF THE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS
EXPECTED WELL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE EIGHTY. COMING IN OFF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEVEN THOUSAND
FEET.


&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO LOWER POPS...DIMINISH CLOUD
COVER A FEW POINTS...AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEVADA...GENERALLY FAR SOUTHEAST ELKO...WHITE PINE...AND
NORTHEAST NYE COUNTIES...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

.AVIATION UPDATE...KEKO/KWMC WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HRS. KELY WILL SEE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CATEGORIES...BUT LIFR HAS OCCURRED.
SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THESE LOW CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-
3000FT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...SOME -SHRA/-SHSN MAY
OCCUR IN KELY. KTPH WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND VCSH. MVFR
IS POSSIBLE BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF. CONFIDENCE IS 30% FOR
MVFR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 235 PM /

SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW IS CHURNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOST OF THE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
IS EXPECTED WELL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE EIGHTY. COMING IN OFF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEVEN THOUSAND
FEET.

SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND TWO DISTINCT JETS. THE PW FROM THE LATEST
SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .37 OF AN INCH WHICH IS 135 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AND LAS VEGAS HAD .66 OF AN INCH WHICH IS 196 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW IS WELL SOUTH OF THE LKN CWA AND
IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY PUSH OVER SOCAL AND AZ...WITH MOISTURE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION...BRINGING QPF TO WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE
COUNTIES. THE BIG WINNERS FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE THE SCHELL CREEK
RANGE...GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK...AND THE MOUNT MORIAH
WILDERNESS. EXPECT MORE ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR ELKO AT 37F THE
29TH...30TH AND 31ST...WHICH WILL BE EASILY SURPASSED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE EC
IS SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND DIRTIER WITH THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST
FORECASTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER EXTREME NORTHERN NV ON MONDAY.
WHILE THE GFS PLACES THE PRECIPITATION IN NE NV ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE EC AND
GFS HAS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH EXTREME NE NV...BUT WITH
PROBLEM OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP WILL HAVE NO MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. EC AND GFS
ARE IN AGREEMENT BRIEFLY THURSDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY FOR DRY...BY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/94





000
FXUS65 KLKN 292235
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW IS CHURNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOST OF THE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
IS EXPECTED WELL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE EIGHTY. COMING IN OFF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEVEN THOUSAND
FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND TWO DISTINCT JETS. THE PW FROM THE LATEST
SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .37 OF AN INCH WHICH IS 135 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AND LAS VEGAS HAD .66 OF AN INCH WHICH IS 196 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW IS WELL SOUTH OF THE LKN CWA AND
IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY PUSH OVER SOCAL AND AZ...WITH MOISTURE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION...BRINGING QPF TO WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE
COUNTIES. THE BIG WINNERS FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE THE SCHELL CREEK
RANGE...GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK...AND THE MOUNT MORIAH
WILDERNESS. EXPECT MORE ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR ELKO AT 37F THE
29TH...30TH AND 31ST...WHICH WILL BE EASILY SURPASSED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE EC
IS SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND DIRTIER WITH THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST
FORECASTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER EXTREME NORTHERN NV ON MONDAY.
WHILE THE GFS PLACES THE PRECIPITATION IN NE NV ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE EC AND
GFS HAS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH EXTREME NE NV...BUT WITH
PROBLEM OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP WILL HAVE NO MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. EC AND GFS
ARE IN AGREEMENT BRIEFLY THURSDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY FOR DRY...BY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/87/87





000
FXUS65 KLKN 292235
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW IS CHURNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOST OF THE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
IS EXPECTED WELL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE EIGHTY. COMING IN OFF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEVEN THOUSAND
FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND TWO DISTINCT JETS. THE PW FROM THE LATEST
SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .37 OF AN INCH WHICH IS 135 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AND LAS VEGAS HAD .66 OF AN INCH WHICH IS 196 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW IS WELL SOUTH OF THE LKN CWA AND
IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY PUSH OVER SOCAL AND AZ...WITH MOISTURE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION...BRINGING QPF TO WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE
COUNTIES. THE BIG WINNERS FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE THE SCHELL CREEK
RANGE...GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK...AND THE MOUNT MORIAH
WILDERNESS. EXPECT MORE ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR ELKO AT 37F THE
29TH...30TH AND 31ST...WHICH WILL BE EASILY SURPASSED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE EC
IS SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND DIRTIER WITH THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST
FORECASTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER EXTREME NORTHERN NV ON MONDAY.
WHILE THE GFS PLACES THE PRECIPITATION IN NE NV ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE EC AND
GFS HAS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH EXTREME NE NV...BUT WITH
PROBLEM OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP WILL HAVE NO MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. EC AND GFS
ARE IN AGREEMENT BRIEFLY THURSDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY FOR DRY...BY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/87/87




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