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000
FXUS65 KLKN 292201
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
301 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED PRETTY MUCH AS
SCHEDULED DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED AND FAIRLY ACTIVE
OVER THE AREA. SOME GOOD RAIN HAS FALLEN OUT OF THE SKY WITH
AUTOMATED LOCATIONS SHOWING ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THUS FAR. LOOK FOR THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6500 FEET OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEVADA...EXCEPT HUMBOLDT COUNTY WHERE SNOW LEVELS COULD DIP TO
5000 TO 5500 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...EXCEPT FOR
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY WHERE THEY WILL BE MUCH STRONGER. AS
SUCH...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL START EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN VALID THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH AT OR ABOVE 6500 FEET TOMORROW...AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL MEAN MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET. WINDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...BUT WILL STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE.
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT DO HAVE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS FOR THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THEY BOTH HAVE A RELATIVELY WEAK NONDESCRIPT FLOW OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAT IS THE REMNANT OF A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE. BUT THE ECMWF NOW HAS A LOW IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THAT IS KEEPING SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION WHILE THE GFS SHOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
A DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO WE
KEPT THE SMALL POPS THAT WERE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
OVER THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST TIME FRAME IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST IS
SLOWING ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND SHOWING MORE SIGNS OF
SPLITTING INTO A CLOSED LOW BY THURSDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL THE LOW PROGRESS BEFORE DRIFTING INLAND. MOST GUIDANCE
BRINGS THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN CA BY FRIDAY MORNING...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO INDUCE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND A DEFORMATION AXIS. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY BEGINS TO
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH THESE WINDS INCREASE. IF THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THE
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE CENTRAL
PART OF NEVADA...BUT IF IT TRACKS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REACH FARTHER NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
SNOW LEVELS RISE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS WELL. VALLEY HIGHS REACH
THE LOW TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FUEL INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF A MCDERMITT TO AUSTIN
LINE. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL LOWER CIGS TO AROUND 2000 FT AND
VSBYS TO LESS THAN 3 MILES. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST...BUT MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM MOUNTAIN CITY TO AUSTIN.

SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF A JACKPOT TO AUSTIN LINE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AS WELL WITH
KTPH GUSTING TO NEAR 40 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY.

THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE FLYING WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
AND VALLEY RAIN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY. RIVERS CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING STRONG
AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM NEXT WEEK...SOME CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN
CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES
THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND MORE RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE
SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN SMALL STREAMS MAY LEAD TO
SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS. IF THE RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS AS
EXPECTED OVER THE SNAKE AND SCHELL RANGE...SNAKE CREEK COULD
EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FLOWS AS WELL. THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM BATTLE
MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT RISE DUE
TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.

&&

$$

86/87/87/86





000
FXUS65 KLKN 291500
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
800 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POP COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING DUE TO RETURNS ON THE
RADAR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SNOW SHOWERS
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS. VALLEYS WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN...OR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 250 AM /

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING, THEN BY AFTERNOON WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL NV AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE AREA. SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS AS SNOW LEVELS MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE 6500 FEET. ON SUNDAY
BROAD UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
AGREEING VERY WELL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERALLY...THE
BUSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AFTER A BRIEF BREAK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A REX PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WEST BUT WILL NOT BE VERY PROFICIENT AND WILL TEMPORARILY BLOCK
INCOMING SYSTEMS. HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR TO THE
NORTH OVER CANADA...A LARGE TROUGH WILL ENVELOP THE GREAT BASIN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN EMPHASIS ON EASTERN NEVADA AND THERE
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST EVERYWHERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET
THE ENTIRE TIME SO NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 30S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY BE THE BEST SHOT AT AN EXTENDED
DRY PERIOD. THE COMPLEX RIDGE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE
IS STILL SOME QPF MODELED TO INFUSE INTO THE RIDGE PATTERN AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES EAST PAST THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY...THE NEXT
PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO WESTERN NEVADA...AT LEAST AS FAR
AS HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE STRUCTURE OF THIS NEXT TROUGH WITH THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE ECMWF MODEL PROPOSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
ELKO COUNTY BY LATE THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 8000 FEET.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.

AVIATION...AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THERE WILL BE
RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
AREA DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD AT ALL
SITES UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. AFTER THAT TIME...SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AND VIS AT KWMC KEKO AND KELY.

HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
AND VALLEY RAIN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND SATURDAY.
RIVERS CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING STRONG AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM NEXT WEEK...SOME CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED
BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND
THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND
MORE RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN SMALL
STREAMS MAY LEAD TO SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS. IF THE RAIN AND SNOW
DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED OVER THE SNAKE AND SCHELL RANGE...SNAKE CREEK
COULD EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FLOWS AS WELL. THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM
BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT
RISE DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING
IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/87





000
FXUS65 KLKN 290950
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
250 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING, THEN BY
AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL NV AS UPPER LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS AS SNOW LEVELS MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE 6500
FEET. ON SUNDAY BROAD UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
AGREEING VERY WELL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERALLY...THE
BUSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AFTER A BRIEF BREAK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A REX PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WEST BUT WILL NOT BE VERY PROFICIENT AND WILL TEMPORARILY BLOCK
INCOMING SYSTEMS. HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR TO THE
NORTH OVER CANADA...A LARGE TROUGH WILL ENVELOP THE GREAT BASIN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN EMPHASIS ON EASTERN NEVADA AND THERE
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST EVERYWHERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET
THE ENTIRE TIME SO NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 30S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY BE THE BEST SHOT AT AN EXTENDED
DRY PERIOD. THE COMPLEX RIDGE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE
IS STILL SOME QPF MODELED TO INFUSE INTO THE RIDGE PATTERN AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES EAST PAST THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY...THE NEXT
PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO WESTERN NEVADA...AT LEAST AS FAR
AS HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE STRUCTURE OF THIS NEXT TROUGH WITH THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE ECMWF MODEL PROPOSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
ELKO COUNTY BY LATE THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 8000 FEET.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THERE WILL BE
RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
AREA DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD AT ALL
SITES UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. AFTER THAT TIME...SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AND VIS AT KWMC KEKO AND KELY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
AND VALLEY RAIN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND SATURDAY.
RIVERS CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING STRONG AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM NEXT WEEK...SOME CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED
BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND
THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND
MORE RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN SMALL
STREAMS MAY LEAD TO SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS. IF THE RAIN AND SNOW
DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED OVER THE SNAKE AND SCHELL RANGE...SNAKE CREEK
COULD EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FLOWS AS WELL. THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM
BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT
RISE DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING
IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/92/92





000
FXUS65 KLKN 282152
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
252 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME ACTIVITY CAN STILL
BE SEEN ON RADAR AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
THIS IS DUE TO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING IN NORTHERN ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE WINDY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA...AND THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NYE
COUNTY. TONOPAH AIRPORT IS CLOCKING IN AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
30-35 MPH... SO THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO RUN THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
EVENING...BUT WILL WANE IN ACTIVITY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S. WAS THINKING OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
TAKE SHAPE ON FRIDAY BUT IT WON`T LAST LONG AS ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM IS WAITING IN THE WINGS TO INVADE NORTHERN NEVADA. SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM DIVES STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STATES. THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES BUT IT WON`T BE TOO
BAD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SNOW
LEVELS DURING FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE THE 7500 FOOT RANGE. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ABOUT 6000-6500 FEET.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND SLOW UP SLIGHTLY ONCE IT GETS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN TO ABOVE THE 6500-7000 FOOT MARK. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO
WINDY ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS
AREA ON SATURDAY. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A BROAD UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ITS PRESENCE WILL MEAN A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN
INSTABILITY AND SLOWLY WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS WILL MEAN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS CLIMB INTO THE 70S. THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE IS SLOWER
TODAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES SO POPS WERE DECREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND INSTABILITY INCREASES.

THE BIGGEST EFFECT THIS APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HAVE IS TO INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
STARTING TO INDICATE MORE OF A SPLIT TO THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY WITH
THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTING SOUTH. THIS COULD HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON WHICH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...EXITING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL MEAN IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS HOLDING ON IN JUST EAST CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
AND VALLEY RAIN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TOMORROW...AND
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIVERS CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING STRONG AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM NEXT
WEEK...SOME CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL.
LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND THE
BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND
MORE RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN
SMALL STREAMS MAY LEAD TO SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS. IF THE RAIN
AND SNOW DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED OVER THE SNAKE AND SCHELL
RANGE...SNAKE CREEK COULD EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FLOWS AS WELL. THE
HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT RISE DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.

&&

$$

86/87/87/86





000
FXUS65 KLKN 281745
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1045 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY. NO OTHER CHANGES IN THE FORECAST ARE BEING
MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 256 AM /

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHWEST AZ EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NV WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 6500 FEET THIS MORNING RISING TO 7000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER SUMMITS IN WHITE PINE
COUNTY SO HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA
UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING
TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL NV WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN NYE
COUNTY WHERE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPANDED THE WINDS ADVISORY TO INCLUDE NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL
NV AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT
THE REGION. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY ABOVE 6500 FEET. ON
SATURDAY UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NV WITH WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE
AGREEING VERY WELL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERALLY...THE
BUSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW BREAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A LARGE TROUGH WILL TAKE UP
RESIDENCE DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON EASTERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET THE ENTIRE TIME SO NO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 30S.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH BUT IT WILL HARDLY YIELD A BREAK FROM THE BUSY
PATTERN. THERE IS STILL SOME QPF MODELED TO INFUSE INTO THE RIDGE
PATTERN AND SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...AGAIN FAVORING
EASTERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 8000 FEET. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.

AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO UTAH. SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH OVER
EASTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT. KWMC AND KTPH...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. KEKO...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
KELY...INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS/VIS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
AND VALLEY RAIN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY...AND AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIVERS CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING STRONG AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM NEXT WEEK...SOME CREEKS
RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. LAMOILLE
CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND THE BRUNEAU RIVER
ARE FOUR SITES THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND MORE RAPIDLY TO
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN SMALL STREAMS MAY
LEAD TO SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS. IF THE RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS AS
EXPECTED OVER THE SNAKE AND SCHELL RANGE...SNAKE CREEK COULD
EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FLOWS AS WELL. THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM BATTLE
MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT RISE DUE
TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.

&&

$$

86/87





000
FXUS65 KLKN 280956
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
256 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHWEST AZ EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NV WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 6500 FEET THIS MORNING RISING TO 7000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER SUMMITS IN WHITE PINE
COUNTY SO HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASING TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL NV WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY WHERE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPANDED THE WINDS ADVISORY TO INCLUDE NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BE CONFINED TO EAST
CENTRAL NV AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. A LULL IN ACTIVITY
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTH BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE REGION. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NV FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY ABOVE 6500
FEET. ON SATURDAY UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NV WITH
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE
AGREEING VERY WELL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERALLY...THE
BUSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW BREAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A LARGE TROUGH WILL TAKE UP
RESIDENCE DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON EASTERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET THE ENTIRE TIME SO NO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 30S.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH BUT IT WILL HARDLY YIELD A BREAK FROM THE BUSY
PATTERN. THERE IS STILL SOME QPF MODELED TO INFUSE INTO THE RIDGE
PATTERN AND SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...AGAIN FAVORING
EASTERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 8000 FEET. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO UTAH. SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH OVER
EASTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT. KWMC AND KTPH...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. KEKO...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
KELY...INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS/VIS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
AND VALLEY RAIN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY...AND AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIVERS CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING STRONG AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM NEXT WEEK...SOME CREEKS
RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. LAMOILLE
CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND THE BRUNEAU RIVER
ARE FOUR SITES THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND MORE RAPIDLY TO
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN SMALL STREAMS MAY
LEAD TO SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS. IF THE RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS AS
EXPECTED OVER THE SNAKE AND SCHELL RANGE...SNAKE CREEK COULD
EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FLOWS AS WELL. THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM BATTLE
MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT RISE DUE
TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

91/92/92





000
FXUS65 KLKN 272151
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
251 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND WILL BRING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW ABOVE
7000 FEET. SNOW LEVEL MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO 6000 FEET EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM DIGS INTO NEVADA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED INTO NEVADA TODAY AND IS PROGGED TO
FORM A TIGHT CIRCULATION OVER SRN WHITE PINE COUNTY TONIGHT. THIS
AREA SHOULD BE THE QPF BULLSEYE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHERE
PARTS OF THE SNAKE RANGE MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS TO THREE QUARTERS TO
ONE INCH OF PCPN. A BIT TRICKY WHEN FORECASTING SNOWFALL SINCE
THIS SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MILD AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
FLUCTUATING...COULD FALL BELOW 7000 FEET FOR A BRIEF TIME WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN/SNOW BAND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE LIMITED TO
ABOVE 7500 FEET...WHICH DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT EXCEPT FOR
CONNORS PASS EAST OF ELY AND THE GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK. WILL
GO AHEAD WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 7500 FOR THIS AREA.
BANDED PCPN OR DEFORMATION AXIS MAY REACH THE RUBY MOUNTAINS...BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO SINCE DYNAMICAL FORCING IS
WEAKER ACROSS NRN NEVADA.

STRONG JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EVOLVING CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION
DRIVES THE CORE INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
FOR NORTHWEST NYE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BECOME
COMMON. A WIND ADVISORY ON THURSDAY ADDRESSES THIS LIKELY
SCENARIO.

CLOSED LOW SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM NEVADA ON THURSDAY EVENING AND
SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT
DIGGING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER ERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LEADS
TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR REGIONS WEST OF WINNEMUCCA AND TONOPAH VICINITY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF DROPPING A SLIDER TYPE LOW
ACROSS NEVADA SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
INSTABILITY FORECASTS DO NOT APPEAR AS ROBUST WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST CYCLE AS THEY DID YESTERDAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE TRENDING
A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW THIS CYCLE WITH THE ECMWF THE
FARTHEST WEST. MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO TRENDING WEST.
POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AND
FAR EASTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF I-80. SNOW LEVELS WERE LOWERED A LITTLE
AS WELL ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.
MOST ACCUMULATIONS OF SIGNIFICANCE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING
SHOULD BE ABOVE 7500 FEET.

THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS SOUTH INTO NW ARIZONA BY SUNDAY MORNING THEN
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO UTAH AND SLOWLY FILL. ITS
PRESENCE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MONDAY WILL
MEAN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EVEN A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT AT ODDS WITH THIS
FEATURE. THE ECMWF WANTS TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST MUCH
FASTER THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE WILL SHOW ONLY SOME SMALL POPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE INCREASED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. THERE IS A DECENT
PRESSURE/TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH THIS FEATURE SO WINDS WILL BE
INCREASED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF
A LINE FROM AUSTIN TO MOUNTAIN CITY NORTH OF 50. IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS CIGS/VSBYS COULD DROP TO IFR AT TIMES BUT OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST TERMINALS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL MEAN OBSCURED MOUNTAINS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FARTHER SOUTHEAST...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR KELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS AT KTPH
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
AND VALLEY RAIN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIVERS
CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING STRONG AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM LATE
THIS WEEK...SOME CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED
BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND
THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND
MORE RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN SMALL
STREAMS MAY LEAD TO SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS. IF THE RAIN AND SNOW
DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED OVER THE SNAKE AND SCHELL RANGE...SNAKE CREEK
COULD EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FLOWS AS WELL.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR WHITE PINE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

88/87





000
FXUS65 KLKN 270925
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
225 AM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6500 FEET TODAY RISING TO 7000 FEET TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY SO IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN NYE COUNTY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NV AND SOUTHERN UT WITH WINDS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA. DIRTY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO
HOLD AGREEMENT PRETTY WELL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS HAVE
CHANGED DIRECTION AND ARE NO LONGER IN FAVOR OF A RESPITE FROM THE
BUSY WEATHER PATTERN...AND ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT.

A LARGE TROUGH WILL ENVELOP THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS. THERE WILL BE TWO LOW CENTERS WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH THAT
WILL REVOLVE COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE INTERNAL BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS LOW COMPLEX WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT FOR A
FEW DAYS AS A REX PATTERN IS MODELED TO APPEAR BUT THEN IS PROGGED
TO DISINTEGRATE. THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED WET PATTERN FOR THE LKN
CWFA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL ON SATURDAY THEN MUCH
SLOWER TO WARM UP THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THERE WILL BE A SMALL
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS ONE LOW CENTER ESSENTIALLY
SWITCHES POSITION WITH THE OTHER DURING THE EVOLUTION OF THE HYBRID
TROUGH. THE MEAN TROUGH IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO EJECT MONDAY NIGHT
AND SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE. RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TO AROUND 6000 FEET NEAR THE IDAHO AND
OREGON BORDERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH COULD GET SOME
SNOW DOWN THE VALLEY FLOORS IN FAR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AND PERHAPS
A MIXED PRECIPITATION EPISODE IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. BY
TUESDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEVADA HOWEVER
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER IT WILL
BE MOISTURE-FREE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SUBSTANTIALLY.
&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER NO WIDESPREAD THREAT IS FORESEEN. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL ABOUT 14Z FOR KWMC...15Z FOR KEKO...22Z
FOR KTPH AND 00Z FOR KELY. MVFR CIGS AND VIS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
THOSE TIMES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
AND VALLEY RAIN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIVERS
CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING STRONG AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM LATE
THIS WEEK...SOME CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED
BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND
THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND
MORE RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN SMALL
STREAMS MAY LEAD TO SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/92/92





000
FXUS65 KLKN 270925
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
225 AM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6500 FEET TODAY RISING TO 7000 FEET TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY SO IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN NYE COUNTY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NV AND SOUTHERN UT WITH WINDS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA. DIRTY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO
HOLD AGREEMENT PRETTY WELL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS HAVE
CHANGED DIRECTION AND ARE NO LONGER IN FAVOR OF A RESPITE FROM THE
BUSY WEATHER PATTERN...AND ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT.

A LARGE TROUGH WILL ENVELOP THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS. THERE WILL BE TWO LOW CENTERS WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH THAT
WILL REVOLVE COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE INTERNAL BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS LOW COMPLEX WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT FOR A
FEW DAYS AS A REX PATTERN IS MODELED TO APPEAR BUT THEN IS PROGGED
TO DISINTEGRATE. THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED WET PATTERN FOR THE LKN
CWFA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL ON SATURDAY THEN MUCH
SLOWER TO WARM UP THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THERE WILL BE A SMALL
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS ONE LOW CENTER ESSENTIALLY
SWITCHES POSITION WITH THE OTHER DURING THE EVOLUTION OF THE HYBRID
TROUGH. THE MEAN TROUGH IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO EJECT MONDAY NIGHT
AND SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE. RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TO AROUND 6000 FEET NEAR THE IDAHO AND
OREGON BORDERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH COULD GET SOME
SNOW DOWN THE VALLEY FLOORS IN FAR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AND PERHAPS
A MIXED PRECIPITATION EPISODE IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. BY
TUESDAY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEVADA HOWEVER
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER IT WILL
BE MOISTURE-FREE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SUBSTANTIALLY.
&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER NO WIDESPREAD THREAT IS FORESEEN. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL ABOUT 14Z FOR KWMC...15Z FOR KEKO...22Z
FOR KTPH AND 00Z FOR KELY. MVFR CIGS AND VIS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
THOSE TIMES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
AND VALLEY RAIN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIVERS
CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING STRONG AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM LATE
THIS WEEK...SOME CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED
BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND
THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND
MORE RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN SMALL
STREAMS MAY LEAD TO SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/92/92





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