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000
FXUS65 KLKN 112202
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
202 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL BUT DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. FREEZING
FOG WILL BE A CONCERN FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE MORNING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY.
A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
GREAT BASIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE PLENTY OF MIDDLE
TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STRIKING NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH ELKO AND LAS VEGAS. FOG WAS A LITTLE MORE PATCHY
THIS MORNING AND BURNED OFF BETWEEN 9AM AND 10AM. THERE WERE SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG REPORTED IN THE SPRING CREEK AREA. IR
SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT DEEP FOG BANK ACROSS THE
SALT FLATS IN UTAH SPREADING TO WEST OF WENDOVER...BOUNDED BY THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TOANO AND GOSHUTE MOUNTAIN RANGES IN NEVADA.
WENDOVER HAS BEEN CARRYING A LOW CEILING ALL DAY. THE CURRENT LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PERIODICALLY VERY DIRTY. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BUT HAVE PUSHED FORWARD THE
NEXT WEATHER MAKER ABOUT 24 HOURS. OTHER THAN FOG...THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN A WEAKLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...THE AXIS OF A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST...FOLLOWED BY DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND
SUBSEQUENT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WITH THE ABSENCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LIMITED MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
NIGHTTIME RADIATION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CRAWL UPWARDS TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN NEVADA...AND ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
AREAS TO THE WEST WITH LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. AS THE SNOWPACK
SLOWLY DISSOLVES...FREEZING FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA AT LEAST ONE MORE MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT PROPOSING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO BRUSH THE STATE SATURDAY.
THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE IS PROPOSED AS DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS THAT SHOULD HELP MIX OUT SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO GET A FEW DEGREES BOOST BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL.

SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT PROPOSING A SECOND SHORT WAVE
TO BRUSH THE STATE...THIS ONE A LITTLE MORE VIGOROUS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS ERUPTING ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO AND HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. AGAIN...SOME
BETTER MIXING IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD RESULT TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON
DEEPENING WESTERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PUSHING RIDGE OUT AND ALLOWING SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE TO ENTER
THE REGION. MODELS, AT THIS TIME, DO NOT INDICATE AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OR EVEN A SUBTROPICAL FETCH, BUT RATHER MARITIME POLAR
AIRMASS MOISTURE. HENCE, HIGHEST POPS IN TWO WEEKS ON SCHEDULE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AFTER PREVIOUS RIDGING, SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR AND BY TUESDAY COULD
SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 60. THEN COLD FRONT AND REALITY RETURNS. BUT INITIAL PRECIP
COULD BE MOSTLY RAIN WITH ONLY MOUNTAIN SNOWS TURNING TO SNOW
THURSDAY. A BIT BREEZY, TOO, AS COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WAFTING OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH LOCAL
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL KEEP KWMC...KELY...AND KTPH FOG FREE. KEKO
WITH EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GET FOG AGAIN
FRIDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG WITH LOW CIGS. WILL LIKELY
DROP TO AT LEAST IFR WITH LIFR A POSSIBILITY. LAST, -SN IS
POSSIBLE OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS AT KEKO. NO ACCUMULATION ON
RUNWAYS EXPECTED BUT COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITY AND OBSCURE
MOUNTAIN TOPS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/98/98





000
FXUS65 KLKN 111713
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
913 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA`S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IT
WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH OFF DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A WEAK
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...RECENT HISTORY HAS PATCHY FOG IN THE KEKO AREA
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING FROM IT. CURRENT 18Z TAF HAS
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY FROM 14Z TO 17Z. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. JUST COULD ADD TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
FROM LOCALIZED FOG.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 302 AM /

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
BORDERS AREAS WITH UTAH...WITH REMOTE SENSORS DEPICTING A CEILING
OF 800 FEET NEAR WEST WENDOVER. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF
FOUR DEGREES OR LESS ARE BEING DEPICTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN LEFT IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. FOR TODAY...THIS WILL MEAN A MIX OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN AS
IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THOSE LOCALES WITH SNOW PACK IN THE VALLEYS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO THE LOW 40 DEGREES...WHILE
THOSE LOCATIONS WITH LIMITED OR NO SNOW PACK WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE 20S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WANE IN
STRENGTH AND FLATTEN DURING THIS PERIOD. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS NO CHANGES IN AIR MASS
WILL BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS WITH
SNOW PACK AND THE 40S AND 50S IN OTHER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN QUIET DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT
THINKING IS THE AREA MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND WENT WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH NO SNOW
COVER.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF NORTHERN NEVADA...AND HAVE
KEPT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE WEAK IMPULSE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP BREAK THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF THE INVERSION...SO EXPECTING READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER TO THE MID 50S TO MID 50S
IN AREAS WITH NO SNOW COVER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE COMING OVER
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NV ON SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE FAR NORTH WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000 FEET. UPPER RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES MONDAY SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF NV. GFS HAS NEXT
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO NV ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE EURO/CAN MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE 2
SOLUTIONS WITH A 15-25 PCT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF NV BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER SOME
OF THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS THIS MORNING. SPECIFICALLY EXPECTING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT THE KEKO TERMINAL DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 13Z-17Z AS IT DID THE LAST 2 MORNINGS AS CONDITIONS ARE
ALMOST IDENTICAL.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/99/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 111102
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
302 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA`S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IT
WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH OFF DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A WEAK
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
BORDERS AREAS WITH UTAH...WITH REMOTE SENSORS DEPICTING A CEILING
OF 800 FEET NEAR WEST WENDOVER. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF
FOUR DEGREES OR LESS ARE BEING DEPICTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN LEFT IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. FOR TODAY...THIS WILL MEAN A MIX OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN AS
IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THOSE LOCALES WITH SNOW PACK IN THE VALLEYS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO THE LOW 40 DEGREES...WHILE
THOSE LOCATIONS WITH LIMITED OR NO SNOW PACK WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE 20S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WANE IN
STRENGTH AND FLATTEN DURING THIS PERIOD. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS NO CHANGES IN AIR MASS
WILL BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS WITH
SNOW PACK AND THE 40S AND 50S IN OTHER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN QUIET DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT
THINKING IS THE AREA MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND WENT WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH NO SNOW
COVER.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF NORTHERN NEVADA...AND HAVE
KEPT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE WEAK IMPULSE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP BREAK THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF THE INVERSION...SO EXPECTING READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER TO THE MID 50S TO MID 50S
IN AREAS WITH NO SNOW COVER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE COMING OVER
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NV ON SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE FAR NORTH WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000 FEET. UPPER RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES MONDAY SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF NV. GFS HAS NEXT
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO NV ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE EURO/CAN MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE 2
SOLUTIONS WITH A 15-25 PCT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF NV BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER SOME
OF THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS THIS MORNING. SPECIFICALLY EXPECTING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT THE KEKO TERMINAL DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 13Z-17Z AS IT DID THE LAST 2 MORNINGS AS CONDITIONS ARE
ALMOST IDENTICAL.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/91/91





000
FXUS65 KLKN 111102
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
302 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA`S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IT
WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH OFF DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A WEAK
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
BORDERS AREAS WITH UTAH...WITH REMOTE SENSORS DEPICTING A CEILING
OF 800 FEET NEAR WEST WENDOVER. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF
FOUR DEGREES OR LESS ARE BEING DEPICTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN LEFT IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. FOR TODAY...THIS WILL MEAN A MIX OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN AS
IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THOSE LOCALES WITH SNOW PACK IN THE VALLEYS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO THE LOW 40 DEGREES...WHILE
THOSE LOCATIONS WITH LIMITED OR NO SNOW PACK WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE 20S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WANE IN
STRENGTH AND FLATTEN DURING THIS PERIOD. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS NO CHANGES IN AIR MASS
WILL BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS WITH
SNOW PACK AND THE 40S AND 50S IN OTHER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN QUIET DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT
THINKING IS THE AREA MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND WENT WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH NO SNOW
COVER.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF NORTHERN NEVADA...AND HAVE
KEPT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE WEAK IMPULSE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP BREAK THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF THE INVERSION...SO EXPECTING READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER TO THE MID 50S TO MID 50S
IN AREAS WITH NO SNOW COVER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE COMING OVER
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NV ON SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE FAR NORTH WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000 FEET. UPPER RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES MONDAY SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF NV. GFS HAS NEXT
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO NV ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE EURO/CAN MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE 2
SOLUTIONS WITH A 15-25 PCT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF NV BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER SOME
OF THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS THIS MORNING. SPECIFICALLY EXPECTING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT THE KEKO TERMINAL DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 13Z-17Z AS IT DID THE LAST 2 MORNINGS AS CONDITIONS ARE
ALMOST IDENTICAL.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/91/91




000
FXUS65 KLKN 111102
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
302 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA`S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IT
WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH OFF DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A WEAK
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
BORDERS AREAS WITH UTAH...WITH REMOTE SENSORS DEPICTING A CEILING
OF 800 FEET NEAR WEST WENDOVER. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF
FOUR DEGREES OR LESS ARE BEING DEPICTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN LEFT IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. FOR TODAY...THIS WILL MEAN A MIX OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN AS
IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THOSE LOCALES WITH SNOW PACK IN THE VALLEYS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO THE LOW 40 DEGREES...WHILE
THOSE LOCATIONS WITH LIMITED OR NO SNOW PACK WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE 20S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WANE IN
STRENGTH AND FLATTEN DURING THIS PERIOD. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS NO CHANGES IN AIR MASS
WILL BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS WITH
SNOW PACK AND THE 40S AND 50S IN OTHER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN QUIET DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT
THINKING IS THE AREA MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND WENT WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH NO SNOW
COVER.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF NORTHERN NEVADA...AND HAVE
KEPT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE WEAK IMPULSE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP BREAK THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF THE INVERSION...SO EXPECTING READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER TO THE MID 50S TO MID 50S
IN AREAS WITH NO SNOW COVER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE COMING OVER
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NV ON SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE FAR NORTH WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000 FEET. UPPER RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES MONDAY SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF NV. GFS HAS NEXT
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW INTO NV ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE EURO/CAN MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE 2
SOLUTIONS WITH A 15-25 PCT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF NV BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER SOME
OF THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS THIS MORNING. SPECIFICALLY EXPECTING IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT THE KEKO TERMINAL DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 13Z-17Z AS IT DID THE LAST 2 MORNINGS AS CONDITIONS ARE
ALMOST IDENTICAL.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/91/91





000
FXUS65 KLKN 102225
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
225 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL BUT DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. FREEZING FOG WILL BE A CONCERN EACH MORNING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA OVER
THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY STRIKING THROUGH WINNEMUCCA AND TONOPAH. MOST OF THE
FOG BURNED OFF BETWEEN 9AM AND 10AM THIS MORNING AND ALTHOUGH
AREAL COVERAGE WAS APPARENT...NO DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT DEEP FOG BANK WEST OF
WENDOVER ABUTTING THE EAST SIDE OF THE TOANO AND GOSHUTE MOUNTAIN
RANGES. WENDOVER HAS BEEN CARRYING A LOW CEILING ALL DAY. THE
CURRENT LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PERIODICALLY VERY DIRTY AND CLOUDS
ARE SPILLING INTO WESTERN NEVADA AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OTHER THAN FOG...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IN A WEAKLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...THE
AXIS OF A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE HOWEVER WITH THE ABSENCE OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH NIGHTTIME RADIATION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CRAWL UPWARDS TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEVADA...AND ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK IN
SOME AREAS TO THE WEST WITH LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. AS THE
SNOWPACK SLOWLY DISSOLVES...FREEZING FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
PROPOSING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO BRUSH THE STATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS ERUPTING ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SHORT WAVE COULD BE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX THE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT AND HELP BOOST DAY
AND NIGHT TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL SKIP THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE PATTERN
TO INCITE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ROLL EAST THROUGH THE LKN CWFA.

WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE LOW MAY BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN NEVADA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN
MODEL TIMING THAT FAR OUT. SNOW LEVELS MAY START OUT AROUND 7000
FEET SO WEDNESDAY MAY NOT BE A CONCERN WEATHER-WISE.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.
VLIFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VLIFR VIS MAY AFFECT KEKO THURSDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THOSE HOURS AT KEKO THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KWMC KELY AND KTPH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/92/92





000
FXUS65 KLKN 102225
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
225 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL BUT DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. FREEZING FOG WILL BE A CONCERN EACH MORNING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA OVER
THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY STRIKING THROUGH WINNEMUCCA AND TONOPAH. MOST OF THE
FOG BURNED OFF BETWEEN 9AM AND 10AM THIS MORNING AND ALTHOUGH
AREAL COVERAGE WAS APPARENT...NO DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT DEEP FOG BANK WEST OF
WENDOVER ABUTTING THE EAST SIDE OF THE TOANO AND GOSHUTE MOUNTAIN
RANGES. WENDOVER HAS BEEN CARRYING A LOW CEILING ALL DAY. THE
CURRENT LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PERIODICALLY VERY DIRTY AND CLOUDS
ARE SPILLING INTO WESTERN NEVADA AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OTHER THAN FOG...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IN A WEAKLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...THE
AXIS OF A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE HOWEVER WITH THE ABSENCE OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH NIGHTTIME RADIATION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CRAWL UPWARDS TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEVADA...AND ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK IN
SOME AREAS TO THE WEST WITH LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. AS THE
SNOWPACK SLOWLY DISSOLVES...FREEZING FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
PROPOSING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO BRUSH THE STATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS ERUPTING ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SHORT WAVE COULD BE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX THE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT AND HELP BOOST DAY
AND NIGHT TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL SKIP THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE PATTERN
TO INCITE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ROLL EAST THROUGH THE LKN CWFA.

WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE LOW MAY BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN NEVADA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN
MODEL TIMING THAT FAR OUT. SNOW LEVELS MAY START OUT AROUND 7000
FEET SO WEDNESDAY MAY NOT BE A CONCERN WEATHER-WISE.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.
VLIFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VLIFR VIS MAY AFFECT KEKO THURSDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THOSE HOURS AT KEKO THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KWMC KELY AND KTPH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/92/92





000
FXUS65 KLKN 102225
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
225 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL BUT DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. FREEZING FOG WILL BE A CONCERN EACH MORNING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA OVER
THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY STRIKING THROUGH WINNEMUCCA AND TONOPAH. MOST OF THE
FOG BURNED OFF BETWEEN 9AM AND 10AM THIS MORNING AND ALTHOUGH
AREAL COVERAGE WAS APPARENT...NO DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT DEEP FOG BANK WEST OF
WENDOVER ABUTTING THE EAST SIDE OF THE TOANO AND GOSHUTE MOUNTAIN
RANGES. WENDOVER HAS BEEN CARRYING A LOW CEILING ALL DAY. THE
CURRENT LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PERIODICALLY VERY DIRTY AND CLOUDS
ARE SPILLING INTO WESTERN NEVADA AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OTHER THAN FOG...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IN A WEAKLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...THE
AXIS OF A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE HOWEVER WITH THE ABSENCE OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH NIGHTTIME RADIATION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CRAWL UPWARDS TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEVADA...AND ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK IN
SOME AREAS TO THE WEST WITH LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. AS THE
SNOWPACK SLOWLY DISSOLVES...FREEZING FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
PROPOSING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO BRUSH THE STATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS ERUPTING ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SHORT WAVE COULD BE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX THE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT AND HELP BOOST DAY
AND NIGHT TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL SKIP THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE PATTERN
TO INCITE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ROLL EAST THROUGH THE LKN CWFA.

WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE LOW MAY BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN NEVADA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN
MODEL TIMING THAT FAR OUT. SNOW LEVELS MAY START OUT AROUND 7000
FEET SO WEDNESDAY MAY NOT BE A CONCERN WEATHER-WISE.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.
VLIFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VLIFR VIS MAY AFFECT KEKO THURSDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THOSE HOURS AT KEKO THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KWMC KELY AND KTPH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/92/92




000
FXUS65 KLKN 101109
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
309 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE TIME BEING...KEEPING THE
WEATHER QUIET AND DRY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. FREEZING FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE VALLEY LOCATIONS EACH MORNING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS
IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING. FREEZING FOG WAS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ELKO AND SPRING
CREEK...AND THE CLOUDS MAY HAVE DISRUPTED THAT. CURRENT
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...AND BELIEVE THIS IS TOO CLOSE TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE FREEZING FOG FROM THE GRIDS...SO HAVE CUT BACK
TO JUST PATCHY WORDING.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS HIGH
CLOUDS TRANSIT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE
LAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH
SNOW COVER AND 50S IN THOSE AREAS WITH LIMITED OR NO SNOW COVER.
FOR TONIGHT...KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR FREEZING FOG WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS UP TO THE
MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE DEPRESSED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
FROM TIME TO TIME. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS WITH SNOW PACK TO
THE 50S WITH LIMITED SNOW COVER. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MELTING
SNOW...HAVE KEPT THE POSSIBILITY OPEN FOR AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO
DEVELOP BOTH NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO 20S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FLATTEN UPPER
RIDGE. THE GFS DIGS THIS SHORT WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NV.
HOWEVER THE CANADIAN/EURO MODEL SHOW SHORT WAVE REMAINING FURTHER
NORTH WITH ANY PRECIP NORTH OF THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER. WITH SUCH
STRONG RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WENT WITH THE CAN/EURO SOLUTION OF
MORE RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE AREA, WITH A DRY FORECAST CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEEKEND
OVERNIGHT LOW WILL MODERATE ACROSS THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NV.

&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL HELP INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN FOG FORMATION AT KEKO IS
NORTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/91/91





000
FXUS65 KLKN 092240
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
240 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL BUT DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. FOG WILL BE A DAILY CONCERN EACH MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND HELP WARM THINGS UP A
BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS CLEAR ACROSS THE LKN
CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY STRIKING THROUGH ELKO AND LAS VEGAS. MOST OF THE PATCHY
FOG BURNED OFF BETWEEN 8AM AND 9AM THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP FOG BANK LYING IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH
FOG CONTINUING IN THE TWIN FALLS AREA. FOG IS ALSO ADVECTING WEST
OF WENDOVER. TOWARDS THE WEST...THERE IS SOME CLOUDINESS SHOWING
ON SATELLITE OVER CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OUT IN THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF ALASKA. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. NO WEATHER IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN FOG
EACH MORNING.

THE AXIS OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER THE SILVER STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION...THEN SHIFT EAST A LITTLE ON FRIDAY. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS BRING CLEAR SKIES WITH A CONTINUED DRY SPELL BUT
WILL INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA DUE TO
THE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK. EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DIP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NIGHTLY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
CRAWLING UPWARDS TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE MARK ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA...AND TOWARDS THE 50 DEGREE MARK THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO
WITH LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. AS THE SNOWPACK SLOWLY
DISSOLVES...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA EACH MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWING A SLIGHT PATTERN
DISAGREEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BRUSH THE SILVER STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO BRING A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY WINDS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...ENOUGH
TO BREAK UP THE INVERSION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE SEVERAL
DEGREES SATURDAY. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME HIGH-ELEVATION SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
SUNDAY...AT LEAST UNTIL THE PACIFIC RIDGE RECOVERS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VLIFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VLIFR VIS MAY AFFECT KEKO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THOSE HOURS AT KEKO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/92/92





000
FXUS65 KLKN 091414
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
614 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEK. A WEAK STORM IS
POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...PATCHY FREEZING FOG FORMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV IMPACTING THE KEKO TERMINAL. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z AT KEKO.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 233 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEK. A WEAK STORM IS
POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER QUIET AND BENIGN
NIGHT WAS HAD BY ALL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. VERY
DIFFICULT TO SEE ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL...LIKE A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS...ON THIS MORNING`S SATELLITE LOOP.

THIS IS DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAKDOWN
TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE TO REFLECT WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW
PACK RESIDES. WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS OBSERVED...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S. IN AREAS
WITH GOOD SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE
30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE MID 20S AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FREEZING FOG
FORMATION DUE TO MOISTURE ADDED DUE TO SNOW MELT...SO HAVE KEPT
THAT IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN QUIET AND DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID30S TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S. EACH MORNING COULD SEE PATCHY
FREEZING FOG IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRUSH FAR NORTHERN NEVADA POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR THE OREGON AND IDAHO BORDER.
WITH RIDGE IN PLACE INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RULE OVER THE SNOW
COVERED VALLEYS. SHORT WAVE SATURDAY MIGHT TEMPORARILY HELP MIX OUT
THE INVERSIONS IN THE NORTH BUT INVERSIONS WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/86





000
FXUS65 KLKN 091033
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
233 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEK. A WEAK STORM IS
POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER QUIET AND BENIGN
NIGHT WAS HAD BY ALL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. VERY
DIFFICULT TO SEE ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL...LIKE A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS...ON THIS MORNING`S SATELLITE LOOP.

THIS IS DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAKDOWN
TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE TO REFLECT WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW
PACK RESIDES. WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS OBSERVED...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S. IN AREAS
WITH GOOD SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE
30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE MID 20S AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FREEZING FOG
FORMATION DUE TO MOISTURE ADDED DUE TO SNOW MELT...SO HAVE KEPT
THAT IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN QUIET AND DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID30S TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S. EACH MORNING COULD SEE PATCHY
FREEZING FOG IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRUSH FAR NORTHERN NEVADA POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR THE OREGON AND IDAHO BORDER.
WITH RIDGE IN PLACE INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RULE OVER THE SNOW
COVERED VALLEYS. SHORT WAVE SATURDAY MIGHT TEMPORARILY HELP MIX OUT
THE INVERSIONS IN THE NORTH BUT INVERSIONS WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/91/91





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