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000
FXUS65 KLKN 050244
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
744 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING...THEREFORE
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE CLOUDS SUPPRESSED
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS RESULTED IN LESS
INTENSE STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 327 PM /

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TODAY
AS A DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...MOIST AND UNSETTLED. A VORT
LOBE IS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WHICH IS PROVIDING THE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION OVER PARTS OF THE LKN CWA. THE PWS ARE RUNNING 3
TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...PINGING INTO A RETURN INTERVAL OF 30 YEARS. THE
OBSERVED DEWPOINT ARE WELL OVER 50F IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS...WITH
THE CORFIDI VECTORS RUNNING ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. TOMORROW
THE EMPHASIS FOR TSRA WILL BE OVER NE NV...FOLLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD UNTIL SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION EXPECT WITH TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 577DM 500MB LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
AND A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB RIDGE OVER NV. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWNS COMPLETELY BY WED AS THE 500MB LOW APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL CA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE 500MB LOW (ABOUT 573-575DM)
FINALLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA LATE THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NV ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW
FILLS AS ITS EXITS THE STATE ON SUNDAY..GIVING WAY TO LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. THE LOW PASSAGE THROUGH THE STATE
IS A SLIGHT DELAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ECWMWF
AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN MOVING THIS UPPER
LOW OR TROUGH THROUGH. IN FACT..THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A TROUGH OFF
THE COAST ON SATURDAY...THUS THE RIDGE ONLY BENDS A LITTLE BEFORE
QUICKLY REBOUNDING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCE...THEY AGREE WITH FALLING 500MB HEIGHTS AND A DRYING
TREND FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE HIGHEST OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY...BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...AFTER WED...MOST OF CENTRAL NV DRIES
OUT...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE DEPICTING A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE CWA. AS FOR
TEMPS...FALLING HEIGHTS MEANS FALLING TEMPS...AND THEY SHOULD BE
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. EXPECT THE
SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD INHIBIT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

AVIATION...SHOWERS..THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
ALL IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 12HRS FOR ALL TERMINALS. WORST CIGS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL DROP
BUT WORST CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS STATED COULD OCCUR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TPH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
22-01Z TIME FRAME WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF AFTER 06Z...HOWEVER
SHOWERS OR PERIODS LIGHT RAIN ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS THEREAFTER. DUE TO CLOUD COVER...KEPT ONLY VCTS AT TPH
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCE BELOW 6SM
AT TIMES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TAFS BUT
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY.

FIRE WEATHER...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DISTURBANCE TAPS INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
DRIVING THE CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXPECT ENHANCED LALS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH A JUICY AIR MASS ON TAP...WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

94/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 042227
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
327 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TODAY
AS A DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MOIST AND UNSETTLED. A VORT
LOBE IS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WHICH IS PROVIDING THE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION OVER PARTS OF THE LKN CWA. THE PWS ARE RUNNING 3
TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...PINGING INTO A RETURN INTERVAL OF 30 YEARS. THE
OBSERVED DEWPOINT ARE WELL OVER 50F IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS...WITH
THE CORFIDI VECTORS RUNNING ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. TOMORROW
THE EMPHASIS FOR TSRA WILL BE OVER NE NV...FOLLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD UNTIL SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION EXPECT WITH TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 577DM 500MB LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
AND A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB RIDGE OVER NV. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWNS COMPLETELY BY WED AS THE 500MB LOW APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL CA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE 500MB LOW (ABOUT 573-575DM)
FINALLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA LATE THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NV ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW
FILLS AS ITS EXITS THE STATE ON SUNDAY..GIVING WAY TO LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. THE LOW PASSAGE THROUGH THE STATE
IS A SLIGHT DELAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ECWMWF
AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN MOVING THIS UPPER
LOW OR TROUGH THROUGH. IN FACT..THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A TROUGH OFF
THE COAST ON SATURDAY...THUS THE RIDGE ONLY BENDS A LITTLE BEFORE
QUICKLY REBOUNDING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCE...THEY AGREE WITH FALLING 500MB HEIGHTS AND A DRYING
TREND FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE HIGHEST OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY...BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...AFTER WED...MOST OF CENTRAL NV DRIES
OUT...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE DEPICTING A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE CWA. AS FOR
TEMPS...FALLING HEIGHTS MEANS FALLING TEMPS...AND THEY SHOULD BE
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. EXPECT THE
SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD INHIBIT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS..THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
ALL IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 12HRS FOR ALL TERMINALS. WORST CIGS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL DROP
BUT WORST CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS STATED COULD OCCUR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TPH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
22-01Z TIME FRAME WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF AFTER 06Z...HOWEVER
SHOWERS OR PERIODS LIGHT RAIN ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS THEREAFTER. DUE TO CLOUD COVER...KEPT ONLY VCTS AT TPH
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCE BELOW 6SM
AT TIMES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TAFS BUT
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DISTURBANCE TAPS INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
DRIVING THE CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXPECT ENHANCED LALS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH A JUICY AIR MASS ON TAP...WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST
HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

97/85/85/97




000
FXUS65 KLKN 042227
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
327 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TODAY
AS A DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MOIST AND UNSETTLED. A VORT
LOBE IS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WHICH IS PROVIDING THE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION OVER PARTS OF THE LKN CWA. THE PWS ARE RUNNING 3
TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...PINGING INTO A RETURN INTERVAL OF 30 YEARS. THE
OBSERVED DEWPOINT ARE WELL OVER 50F IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS...WITH
THE CORFIDI VECTORS RUNNING ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. TOMORROW
THE EMPHASIS FOR TSRA WILL BE OVER NE NV...FOLLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD UNTIL SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION EXPECT WITH TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 577DM 500MB LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
AND A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB RIDGE OVER NV. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWNS COMPLETELY BY WED AS THE 500MB LOW APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL CA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE 500MB LOW (ABOUT 573-575DM)
FINALLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA LATE THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NV ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW
FILLS AS ITS EXITS THE STATE ON SUNDAY..GIVING WAY TO LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. THE LOW PASSAGE THROUGH THE STATE
IS A SLIGHT DELAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ECWMWF
AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN MOVING THIS UPPER
LOW OR TROUGH THROUGH. IN FACT..THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A TROUGH OFF
THE COAST ON SATURDAY...THUS THE RIDGE ONLY BENDS A LITTLE BEFORE
QUICKLY REBOUNDING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCE...THEY AGREE WITH FALLING 500MB HEIGHTS AND A DRYING
TREND FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE HIGHEST OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY...BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...AFTER WED...MOST OF CENTRAL NV DRIES
OUT...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE DEPICTING A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE CWA. AS FOR
TEMPS...FALLING HEIGHTS MEANS FALLING TEMPS...AND THEY SHOULD BE
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. EXPECT THE
SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD INHIBIT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS..THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
ALL IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 12HRS FOR ALL TERMINALS. WORST CIGS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL DROP
BUT WORST CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS STATED COULD OCCUR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TPH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
22-01Z TIME FRAME WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF AFTER 06Z...HOWEVER
SHOWERS OR PERIODS LIGHT RAIN ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS THEREAFTER. DUE TO CLOUD COVER...KEPT ONLY VCTS AT TPH
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCE BELOW 6SM
AT TIMES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TAFS BUT
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DISTURBANCE TAPS INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
DRIVING THE CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXPECT ENHANCED LALS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH A JUICY AIR MASS ON TAP...WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST
HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

97/85/85/97





000
FXUS65 KLKN 042222
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TODAY
AS A DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOIST AND UNSETTLED. A VORT
LOBE IS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WHICH IS PROVIDING THE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION OVER PARTS OF THE LKN CWA. THE PWS ARE RUNNING 3
TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...PINGING INTO A RETURN INTERVAL OF 30 YEARS. THE
OBSERVED DEWPOINT ARE WELL OVER 50F IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS...WITH
THE CORFIDI VECTORS RUNNING ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. TOMORROW
THE EMPHASIS FOR TSRA WILL BE OVER NE NV...FOLLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD UNTIL SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION EXPECT WITH TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 577DM 500MB LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
AND A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB RIDGE OVER NV. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWNS COMPLETELY BY WED AS THE 500MB LOW APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL CA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE 500MB LOW (ABOUT 573-575DM)
FINALLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA LATE THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NV ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW
FILLS AS ITS EXITS THE STATE ON SUNDAY..GIVING WAY TO LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. THE LOW PASSAGE THROUGH THE STATE
IS A SLIGHT DELAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ECWMWF
AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN MOVING THIS UPPER
LOW OR TROUGH THROUGH. IN FACT..THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A TROUGH OFF
THE COAST ON SATURDAY...THUS THE RIDGE ONLY BENDS A LITTLE BEFORE
QUICKLY REBOUNDING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCE...THEY AGREE WITH FALLING 500MB HEIGHTS AND A DRYING
TREND FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE HIGHEST OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY...BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...AFTER WED...MOST OF CENTRAL NV DRIES
OUT...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE DEPICTING A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE CWA. AS FOR
TEMPS...FALLING HEIGHTS MEANS FALLING TEMPS...AND THEY SHOULD BE
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. EXPECT THE
SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD INHIBIT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS..THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
ALL IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 12HRS FOR ALL TERMINALS. WORST CIGS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL DROP
BUT WORST CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS STATED COULD OCCUR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TPH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
22-01Z TIME FRAME WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF AFTER 06Z...HOWEVER
SHOWERS OR PERIODS LIGHT RAIN ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS THEREAFTER. DUE TO CLOUD COVER...KEPT ONLY VCTS AT TPH
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCE BELOW 6SM
AT TIMES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TAFS BUT
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DISTURBANCE TAPS INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
DRIVING THE CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXPECT ENHANCED LALS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH A JUICY AIR MASS ON TAP...WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS PATTERN.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH
CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

97/85/85/97




000
FXUS65 KLKN 042222
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TODAY
AS A DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOIST AND UNSETTLED. A VORT
LOBE IS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WHICH IS PROVIDING THE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION OVER PARTS OF THE LKN CWA. THE PWS ARE RUNNING 3
TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...PINGING INTO A RETURN INTERVAL OF 30 YEARS. THE
OBSERVED DEWPOINT ARE WELL OVER 50F IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS...WITH
THE CORFIDI VECTORS RUNNING ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. TOMORROW
THE EMPHASIS FOR TSRA WILL BE OVER NE NV...FOLLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD UNTIL SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION EXPECT WITH TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 577DM 500MB LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
AND A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB RIDGE OVER NV. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWNS COMPLETELY BY WED AS THE 500MB LOW APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL CA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE 500MB LOW (ABOUT 573-575DM)
FINALLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA LATE THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NV ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW
FILLS AS ITS EXITS THE STATE ON SUNDAY..GIVING WAY TO LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. THE LOW PASSAGE THROUGH THE STATE
IS A SLIGHT DELAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ECWMWF
AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN MOVING THIS UPPER
LOW OR TROUGH THROUGH. IN FACT..THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A TROUGH OFF
THE COAST ON SATURDAY...THUS THE RIDGE ONLY BENDS A LITTLE BEFORE
QUICKLY REBOUNDING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCE...THEY AGREE WITH FALLING 500MB HEIGHTS AND A DRYING
TREND FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE HIGHEST OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY...BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...AFTER WED...MOST OF CENTRAL NV DRIES
OUT...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE DEPICTING A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE CWA. AS FOR
TEMPS...FALLING HEIGHTS MEANS FALLING TEMPS...AND THEY SHOULD BE
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. EXPECT THE
SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD INHIBIT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS..THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
ALL IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 12HRS FOR ALL TERMINALS. WORST CIGS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL DROP
BUT WORST CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS STATED COULD OCCUR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TPH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
22-01Z TIME FRAME WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF AFTER 06Z...HOWEVER
SHOWERS OR PERIODS LIGHT RAIN ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS THEREAFTER. DUE TO CLOUD COVER...KEPT ONLY VCTS AT TPH
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCE BELOW 6SM
AT TIMES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TAFS BUT
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DISTURBANCE TAPS INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
DRIVING THE CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXPECT ENHANCED LALS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH A JUICY AIR MASS ON TAP...WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS PATTERN.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH
CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

97/85/85/97





000
FXUS65 KLKN 042222
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TODAY
AS A DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOIST AND UNSETTLED. A VORT
LOBE IS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WHICH IS PROVIDING THE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION OVER PARTS OF THE LKN CWA. THE PWS ARE RUNNING 3
TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...PINGING INTO A RETURN INTERVAL OF 30 YEARS. THE
OBSERVED DEWPOINT ARE WELL OVER 50F IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS...WITH
THE CORFIDI VECTORS RUNNING ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. TOMORROW
THE EMPHASIS FOR TSRA WILL BE OVER NE NV...FOLLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD UNTIL SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION EXPECT WITH TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 577DM 500MB LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
AND A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB RIDGE OVER NV. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWNS COMPLETELY BY WED AS THE 500MB LOW APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL CA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE 500MB LOW (ABOUT 573-575DM)
FINALLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA LATE THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NV ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW
FILLS AS ITS EXITS THE STATE ON SUNDAY..GIVING WAY TO LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. THE LOW PASSAGE THROUGH THE STATE
IS A SLIGHT DELAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ECWMWF
AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN MOVING THIS UPPER
LOW OR TROUGH THROUGH. IN FACT..THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A TROUGH OFF
THE COAST ON SATURDAY...THUS THE RIDGE ONLY BENDS A LITTLE BEFORE
QUICKLY REBOUNDING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCE...THEY AGREE WITH FALLING 500MB HEIGHTS AND A DRYING
TREND FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE HIGHEST OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY...BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...AFTER WED...MOST OF CENTRAL NV DRIES
OUT...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE DEPICTING A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE CWA. AS FOR
TEMPS...FALLING HEIGHTS MEANS FALLING TEMPS...AND THEY SHOULD BE
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. EXPECT THE
SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD INHIBIT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS..THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
ALL IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 12HRS FOR ALL TERMINALS. WORST CIGS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL DROP
BUT WORST CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS STATED COULD OCCUR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TPH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
22-01Z TIME FRAME WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF AFTER 06Z...HOWEVER
SHOWERS OR PERIODS LIGHT RAIN ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS THEREAFTER. DUE TO CLOUD COVER...KEPT ONLY VCTS AT TPH
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCE BELOW 6SM
AT TIMES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TAFS BUT
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DISTURBANCE TAPS INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
DRIVING THE CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXPECT ENHANCED LALS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH A JUICY AIR MASS ON TAP...WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS PATTERN.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH
CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

97/85/85/97




000
FXUS65 KLKN 041029
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
329 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOTHER NATURE WILL PROVIDE FIREWORKS OF HER OWN AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON THE 4TH
WILL BE STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. JUST A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS
LINGERING AROUND THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
VORT MAX GENERATING SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WHITE PINE COUNTY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THAT THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. STRONG
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.

A NEGATIVE TILT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LKN CWFA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INITIALIZING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHWARD LATER IN THE
DAY. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR IN THAT RESPECT HOWEVER THERE IS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER THAT WILL
EFFECTIVELY WORK WITH THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA TO PULL IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST. THIS MOIST FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. CONVECTION COULD GET GOING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ALL AREAS
COULD SEE LIGHTNING EVENTUALLY TODAY WITH STORMS MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY ON THEN FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL MOIST LAYER FROM LOVELOCK TO CARLIN WITH
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE THIS LINE HOWEVER MOST CONVECTION WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THE RIDGE...CONVECTION SHOULD RE-INITIATE...AGAIN WITH ALL
AREAS RECEIVING STORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A DEEP AND ANOMALOUS LOW OFF THE CALI COAST
WILL COME ASHORE IN NORTHERN CALI. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INTERESTING WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO DECREASE WITH
DRYING SW FLOW OVER THE SIERRA...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FCH REMAINS WEAKENED...WHILE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALI COAST INCREASES. PWATS AROUND
0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WILL BE PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA. STRONG STORM STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DIFFLUENCE SPREADS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MEANDER WEST OF SAN FRAN. THIS WILL KEEP MARGINAL FLOW ALOFT AND
MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. STORM COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY
BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH MUCH DRIER STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK COULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE SE THIRD
OF THE CWA AS FLOW INCREASES.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE SYSTEM COMING ASHORE NEAR SAN
FRAN AND TRAVERSING THROUGH NW NEVADA. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
TREND ON THE LONG RANGE MODELS. IT WILL NEED WATCHING...AS THIS
COULD BE AN INTERESTING PATTERN FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...-TSRA ARE IN THE TAFS FOR KELY/KEKO. THIS IS TO CONVEY
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS. EXPECT TEMPOS TO BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE STORMS.
ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 45KNOTS. BEST CHANCE FOR TS WILL BE KELY/KEKO. VCTS FOR
KWMC/KTPH. FOR KEKO...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS
AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-
WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/94/94





000
FXUS65 KLKN 041029
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
329 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOTHER NATURE WILL PROVIDE FIREWORKS OF HER OWN AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON THE 4TH
WILL BE STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. JUST A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS
LINGERING AROUND THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
VORT MAX GENERATING SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WHITE PINE COUNTY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THAT THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. STRONG
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.

A NEGATIVE TILT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LKN CWFA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INITIALIZING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHWARD LATER IN THE
DAY. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR IN THAT RESPECT HOWEVER THERE IS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER THAT WILL
EFFECTIVELY WORK WITH THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA TO PULL IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST. THIS MOIST FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. CONVECTION COULD GET GOING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ALL AREAS
COULD SEE LIGHTNING EVENTUALLY TODAY WITH STORMS MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY ON THEN FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL MOIST LAYER FROM LOVELOCK TO CARLIN WITH
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE THIS LINE HOWEVER MOST CONVECTION WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THE RIDGE...CONVECTION SHOULD RE-INITIATE...AGAIN WITH ALL
AREAS RECEIVING STORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A DEEP AND ANOMALOUS LOW OFF THE CALI COAST
WILL COME ASHORE IN NORTHERN CALI. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INTERESTING WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO DECREASE WITH
DRYING SW FLOW OVER THE SIERRA...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FCH REMAINS WEAKENED...WHILE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALI COAST INCREASES. PWATS AROUND
0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WILL BE PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA. STRONG STORM STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DIFFLUENCE SPREADS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MEANDER WEST OF SAN FRAN. THIS WILL KEEP MARGINAL FLOW ALOFT AND
MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. STORM COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY
BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH MUCH DRIER STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK COULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE SE THIRD
OF THE CWA AS FLOW INCREASES.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE SYSTEM COMING ASHORE NEAR SAN
FRAN AND TRAVERSING THROUGH NW NEVADA. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
TREND ON THE LONG RANGE MODELS. IT WILL NEED WATCHING...AS THIS
COULD BE AN INTERESTING PATTERN FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...-TSRA ARE IN THE TAFS FOR KELY/KEKO. THIS IS TO CONVEY
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS. EXPECT TEMPOS TO BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE STORMS.
ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 45KNOTS. BEST CHANCE FOR TS WILL BE KELY/KEKO. VCTS FOR
KWMC/KTPH. FOR KEKO...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS
AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-
WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/94/94




000
FXUS65 KLKN 041029
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
329 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOTHER NATURE WILL PROVIDE FIREWORKS OF HER OWN AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON THE 4TH
WILL BE STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. JUST A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS
LINGERING AROUND THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
VORT MAX GENERATING SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WHITE PINE COUNTY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THAT THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. STRONG
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.

A NEGATIVE TILT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LKN CWFA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INITIALIZING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHWARD LATER IN THE
DAY. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR IN THAT RESPECT HOWEVER THERE IS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER THAT WILL
EFFECTIVELY WORK WITH THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA TO PULL IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST. THIS MOIST FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. CONVECTION COULD GET GOING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ALL AREAS
COULD SEE LIGHTNING EVENTUALLY TODAY WITH STORMS MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY ON THEN FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL MOIST LAYER FROM LOVELOCK TO CARLIN WITH
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE THIS LINE HOWEVER MOST CONVECTION WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THE RIDGE...CONVECTION SHOULD RE-INITIATE...AGAIN WITH ALL
AREAS RECEIVING STORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A DEEP AND ANOMALOUS LOW OFF THE CALI COAST
WILL COME ASHORE IN NORTHERN CALI. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INTERESTING WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO DECREASE WITH
DRYING SW FLOW OVER THE SIERRA...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FCH REMAINS WEAKENED...WHILE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALI COAST INCREASES. PWATS AROUND
0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WILL BE PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA. STRONG STORM STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DIFFLUENCE SPREADS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MEANDER WEST OF SAN FRAN. THIS WILL KEEP MARGINAL FLOW ALOFT AND
MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. STORM COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY
BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH MUCH DRIER STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK COULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE SE THIRD
OF THE CWA AS FLOW INCREASES.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE SYSTEM COMING ASHORE NEAR SAN
FRAN AND TRAVERSING THROUGH NW NEVADA. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
TREND ON THE LONG RANGE MODELS. IT WILL NEED WATCHING...AS THIS
COULD BE AN INTERESTING PATTERN FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...-TSRA ARE IN THE TAFS FOR KELY/KEKO. THIS IS TO CONVEY
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS. EXPECT TEMPOS TO BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE STORMS.
ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 45KNOTS. BEST CHANCE FOR TS WILL BE KELY/KEKO. VCTS FOR
KWMC/KTPH. FOR KEKO...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS
AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-
WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/94/94




000
FXUS65 KLKN 032100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA ON THE FOURTH OF OF
JULY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY...WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3. MOISTURE QUALITY HOLDING NICELY
TODAY, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT STILL AT 50 HERE AT THE OFFICE AT
NOON, WITH PW HOVERING AROUND ONE INCH (12Z LKN SOUNDING MEASURED
0.99 INCH). LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A CERTAINTY INTO THIS EVENING,
BUT LACK OF SHEAR AND STORM ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP COVERAGE
LIMITED ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER TO ISOLATED
RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM AGAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE 60S,
ABOUT 12-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

4TH OF JULY...CONFIDENCE INCREASING REGARDING A SIGNIFICANT ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NEVADA. SHORTWAVE IN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE NW AND ARRIVE IN THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING, HELPING TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS THIS OCCURS, AND THE DISTURBANCE WILL FIND
A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR TO INTERACT WITH WHEN IT ARRIVES. GFS
FORECASTS PW OF 1-1.1 INCH, WITH ALL MODELS HOLDING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN BE WEAK, WITH 700
MB FLOW ABOUT 5 KTS, ADDING TO HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL. NAM
FORECASTS IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WIDESPREAD. GIVEN THESE FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS, AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY/OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, FELT IT
PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT HUMBOLDT, NW NYE, AND SE ELKO
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT, STORMS SATURDAY WILL
PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE MICROBURSTS, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50-60
MPH, AND PROLIFIC CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING EVERYWHERE ALL THE TIME, BUT SOME OUTDOOR HOLIDAY
ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS. REMAIN
ALERT OF THE WEATHER AROUND YOU IF HEADING OUTSIDE FOR THE
HOLIDAY. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY SEVERAL DEGREES GIVEN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY, AGAIN GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY TIMING, AND ALLOWING FOR THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT GFS
SUGGESTS WILL PERSIST.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE QUALITY DEGRADES SOME, DOWN TO 0.75-0.95 INCH,
BUT STILL PLENTY, COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY /CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/,
TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION, MAINLY ACROSS
ELKO/WHITE PINE COUNTIES. STEERING FLOW IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER, AND
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LESS, SO NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH FLOODING
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES LOWERING. DROPPED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES, WITH MANY
VALLEYS HOLDING IN THE REFRESHING LOW TO MID 80S, ACTUALLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL!  TURNER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL
AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD FOR ENTIRE PERIOD. A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
AND DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 576DM 500MB LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB RIDGE OVER NV.  ALHTOUGH THE RIDGE
REMAINS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...IT QUICKLY BREAKS DOWNS AS
THE 500MB LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CA COAST ON WEDNESDAY.  THE
500MB LOW GRADUALLY FILLS AS ENTERS NV LATE THURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING
NE THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY.  AS A RESULT...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS
FROM SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURDAY.  CONVECTION WISE...EACH DAY SEES A DECREASE
IN CONVECTION COVERAGE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN NV
WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DIVERAGES ALOFT WILL RESIDE UNTIL
THURSDAY.  MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE OTHER
BIG STORY WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS 500MB
HEIGHTS FALL TO 576-579DM BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS IS APPROACHING
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE.  THERFORE HIGH TEMPS FALL FROM
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON MONDAY TO THE 70S AND 80S BY
FRIDAY...WHICH MEANS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR A CHANCE.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS COULD GET QUITE CHILLY WITH WIDESPREAD 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
 A FEW OF COLDER SPOTS COULD DIP INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY;
THEREFORE VCTS OR VCSH IS ADDED TO ALL TAFS.  GREATEST CHANCES ARE
AT WMC...EKO...AND ELY TO SEE ONE HIT THE TERMINAL.  CAPPING ALOFT
LIMITS CHANCES AT TPH; HOWEVER OUTFLOWS COULD CHANGE THAT.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON WHEN ACITIVTY MAY END THIS EVENING...AS
WELL AS WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO THE EXISTENCE OF OUTFLOWS.
EXPECT WIDE SPREAD TS COVERAGE TOMORROW WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING WITH LAL
OF 4. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

A DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN NEVADA FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY,
INTERACT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
LAL OF 5 FOR MANY FWZ. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE HIGH, WITH PW
NEAR OR ABOVE ONE INCH. AS SUCH, STORMS WILL BE WET, EFFICIENT
RAINERS. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT ALSO INCREASES CONFIDENCE OF WET
STORMS WITH HIGH CWR, AND INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING. CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PRODUCE NOT
ONLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY/ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST
HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/85/85/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 032100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA ON THE FOURTH OF OF
JULY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY...WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3. MOISTURE QUALITY HOLDING NICELY
TODAY, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT STILL AT 50 HERE AT THE OFFICE AT
NOON, WITH PW HOVERING AROUND ONE INCH (12Z LKN SOUNDING MEASURED
0.99 INCH). LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A CERTAINTY INTO THIS EVENING,
BUT LACK OF SHEAR AND STORM ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP COVERAGE
LIMITED ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER TO ISOLATED
RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM AGAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE 60S,
ABOUT 12-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

4TH OF JULY...CONFIDENCE INCREASING REGARDING A SIGNIFICANT ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NEVADA. SHORTWAVE IN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE NW AND ARRIVE IN THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING, HELPING TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS THIS OCCURS, AND THE DISTURBANCE WILL FIND
A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR TO INTERACT WITH WHEN IT ARRIVES. GFS
FORECASTS PW OF 1-1.1 INCH, WITH ALL MODELS HOLDING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN BE WEAK, WITH 700
MB FLOW ABOUT 5 KTS, ADDING TO HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL. NAM
FORECASTS IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WIDESPREAD. GIVEN THESE FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS, AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY/OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, FELT IT
PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT HUMBOLDT, NW NYE, AND SE ELKO
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT, STORMS SATURDAY WILL
PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE MICROBURSTS, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50-60
MPH, AND PROLIFIC CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING EVERYWHERE ALL THE TIME, BUT SOME OUTDOOR HOLIDAY
ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS. REMAIN
ALERT OF THE WEATHER AROUND YOU IF HEADING OUTSIDE FOR THE
HOLIDAY. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY SEVERAL DEGREES GIVEN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY, AGAIN GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY TIMING, AND ALLOWING FOR THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT GFS
SUGGESTS WILL PERSIST.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE QUALITY DEGRADES SOME, DOWN TO 0.75-0.95 INCH,
BUT STILL PLENTY, COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY /CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/,
TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION, MAINLY ACROSS
ELKO/WHITE PINE COUNTIES. STEERING FLOW IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER, AND
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LESS, SO NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH FLOODING
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES LOWERING. DROPPED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES, WITH MANY
VALLEYS HOLDING IN THE REFRESHING LOW TO MID 80S, ACTUALLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL!  TURNER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL
AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD FOR ENTIRE PERIOD. A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
AND DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 576DM 500MB LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB RIDGE OVER NV.  ALHTOUGH THE RIDGE
REMAINS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...IT QUICKLY BREAKS DOWNS AS
THE 500MB LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CA COAST ON WEDNESDAY.  THE
500MB LOW GRADUALLY FILLS AS ENTERS NV LATE THURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING
NE THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY.  AS A RESULT...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS
FROM SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURDAY.  CONVECTION WISE...EACH DAY SEES A DECREASE
IN CONVECTION COVERAGE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN NV
WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DIVERAGES ALOFT WILL RESIDE UNTIL
THURSDAY.  MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE OTHER
BIG STORY WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS 500MB
HEIGHTS FALL TO 576-579DM BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS IS APPROACHING
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE.  THERFORE HIGH TEMPS FALL FROM
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON MONDAY TO THE 70S AND 80S BY
FRIDAY...WHICH MEANS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR A CHANCE.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS COULD GET QUITE CHILLY WITH WIDESPREAD 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
 A FEW OF COLDER SPOTS COULD DIP INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY;
THEREFORE VCTS OR VCSH IS ADDED TO ALL TAFS.  GREATEST CHANCES ARE
AT WMC...EKO...AND ELY TO SEE ONE HIT THE TERMINAL.  CAPPING ALOFT
LIMITS CHANCES AT TPH; HOWEVER OUTFLOWS COULD CHANGE THAT.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON WHEN ACITIVTY MAY END THIS EVENING...AS
WELL AS WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO THE EXISTENCE OF OUTFLOWS.
EXPECT WIDE SPREAD TS COVERAGE TOMORROW WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING WITH LAL
OF 4. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

A DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN NEVADA FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY,
INTERACT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
LAL OF 5 FOR MANY FWZ. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE HIGH, WITH PW
NEAR OR ABOVE ONE INCH. AS SUCH, STORMS WILL BE WET, EFFICIENT
RAINERS. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT ALSO INCREASES CONFIDENCE OF WET
STORMS WITH HIGH CWR, AND INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING. CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PRODUCE NOT
ONLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY/ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST
HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/85/85/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 030928
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
228 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME
OF THE STORMS IN NORTHERN NEVADA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE
STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN LANDER THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

A NEGATIVE TILT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LKN CWFA
TODAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG
AND BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS AND TODAY SHOULD BE NO DIFFERENT. ALL
AREAS COULD SEE LIGHTNING EVENTUALLY TODAY WITH STORMS MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY ON THEN FOCUSING
ON NORTHEAST NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE
AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HOWEVER
MOST CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF THIS EVENING. THEN ON SATURDAY
THINGS COULD GET BUSIER. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
MOIST LAYER FROM EUREKA TO JACKPOT WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE THIS LINE AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGIN TO
PULL EAST TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS MODEL
IS HINTING AT AN H7 CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY WITH
HELICITY VALUES TOUCHING ON 300 UNITS. STORMS COULD SHOW ROTATION
OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY
AND SOME 100 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEVADA. SAY GOODBYE TO THE 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD EXCELLENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK HAS IMPROVED. THE GFS/EURO BOTH SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
JUST WEST OF SAN FRAN ON WED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT POPS QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTH. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAIN...SIMILAR TO JULY 4TH 2013...IS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE SQUEEZE PLAY CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. FCH SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND
ANOMALOUS LOW OFF THE CALI COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WITH SW FLOW OVER
THE SIERRA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS MODEST
FLOW/ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MEANDER WEST OF SAN FRAN. THIS WILL KEEP MARGINAL FLOW
ALOFT AND AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE. STORM COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY BE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS FEATURE WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS IT
COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF CONTINUED STORMINESS. IN CENTRAL NEVADA...
IT COULD BECOME QUITE DRY WITH GUSTY SW/S WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KTPH. TEMPOS WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING FOR TSRA. DECIDED TO KEEP KTPH
DRY...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. THEY WILL HAVE AT LEAST CU BUILD UP AND
PERHAPS VCSH. AGAIN...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY TS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP
VCTS IN KELY/KWMC AND VCHS AT KEKO.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94





000
FXUS65 KLKN 030928
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
228 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME
OF THE STORMS IN NORTHERN NEVADA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE
STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN LANDER THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

A NEGATIVE TILT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LKN CWFA
TODAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG
AND BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS AND TODAY SHOULD BE NO DIFFERENT. ALL
AREAS COULD SEE LIGHTNING EVENTUALLY TODAY WITH STORMS MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY ON THEN FOCUSING
ON NORTHEAST NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE
AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HOWEVER
MOST CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF THIS EVENING. THEN ON SATURDAY
THINGS COULD GET BUSIER. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
MOIST LAYER FROM EUREKA TO JACKPOT WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE THIS LINE AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGIN TO
PULL EAST TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS MODEL
IS HINTING AT AN H7 CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY WITH
HELICITY VALUES TOUCHING ON 300 UNITS. STORMS COULD SHOW ROTATION
OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY
AND SOME 100 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEVADA. SAY GOODBYE TO THE 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD EXCELLENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK HAS IMPROVED. THE GFS/EURO BOTH SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
JUST WEST OF SAN FRAN ON WED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT POPS QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTH. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAIN...SIMILAR TO JULY 4TH 2013...IS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE SQUEEZE PLAY CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. FCH SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND
ANOMALOUS LOW OFF THE CALI COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WITH SW FLOW OVER
THE SIERRA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS MODEST
FLOW/ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MEANDER WEST OF SAN FRAN. THIS WILL KEEP MARGINAL FLOW
ALOFT AND AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE. STORM COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY BE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS FEATURE WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS IT
COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF CONTINUED STORMINESS. IN CENTRAL NEVADA...
IT COULD BECOME QUITE DRY WITH GUSTY SW/S WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KTPH. TEMPOS WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING FOR TSRA. DECIDED TO KEEP KTPH
DRY...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. THEY WILL HAVE AT LEAST CU BUILD UP AND
PERHAPS VCSH. AGAIN...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY TS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP
VCTS IN KELY/KWMC AND VCHS AT KEKO.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94




000
FXUS65 KLKN 030928
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
228 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME
OF THE STORMS IN NORTHERN NEVADA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE
STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN LANDER THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

A NEGATIVE TILT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LKN CWFA
TODAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG
AND BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS AND TODAY SHOULD BE NO DIFFERENT. ALL
AREAS COULD SEE LIGHTNING EVENTUALLY TODAY WITH STORMS MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY ON THEN FOCUSING
ON NORTHEAST NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE
AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HOWEVER
MOST CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF THIS EVENING. THEN ON SATURDAY
THINGS COULD GET BUSIER. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
MOIST LAYER FROM EUREKA TO JACKPOT WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE THIS LINE AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGIN TO
PULL EAST TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS MODEL
IS HINTING AT AN H7 CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY WITH
HELICITY VALUES TOUCHING ON 300 UNITS. STORMS COULD SHOW ROTATION
OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY
AND SOME 100 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEVADA. SAY GOODBYE TO THE 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD EXCELLENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK HAS IMPROVED. THE GFS/EURO BOTH SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
JUST WEST OF SAN FRAN ON WED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT POPS QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTH. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAIN...SIMILAR TO JULY 4TH 2013...IS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE SQUEEZE PLAY CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. FCH SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND
ANOMALOUS LOW OFF THE CALI COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WITH SW FLOW OVER
THE SIERRA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS MODEST
FLOW/ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MEANDER WEST OF SAN FRAN. THIS WILL KEEP MARGINAL FLOW
ALOFT AND AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE. STORM COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY BE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS FEATURE WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS IT
COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF CONTINUED STORMINESS. IN CENTRAL NEVADA...
IT COULD BECOME QUITE DRY WITH GUSTY SW/S WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KTPH. TEMPOS WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING FOR TSRA. DECIDED TO KEEP KTPH
DRY...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. THEY WILL HAVE AT LEAST CU BUILD UP AND
PERHAPS VCSH. AGAIN...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY TS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP
VCTS IN KELY/KWMC AND VCHS AT KEKO.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94





000
FXUS65 KLKN 030928
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
228 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME
OF THE STORMS IN NORTHERN NEVADA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE
STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN LANDER THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

A NEGATIVE TILT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LKN CWFA
TODAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG
AND BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS AND TODAY SHOULD BE NO DIFFERENT. ALL
AREAS COULD SEE LIGHTNING EVENTUALLY TODAY WITH STORMS MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY ON THEN FOCUSING
ON NORTHEAST NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE
AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HOWEVER
MOST CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF THIS EVENING. THEN ON SATURDAY
THINGS COULD GET BUSIER. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
MOIST LAYER FROM EUREKA TO JACKPOT WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE THIS LINE AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGIN TO
PULL EAST TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS MODEL
IS HINTING AT AN H7 CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY WITH
HELICITY VALUES TOUCHING ON 300 UNITS. STORMS COULD SHOW ROTATION
OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY
AND SOME 100 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEVADA. SAY GOODBYE TO THE 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD EXCELLENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK HAS IMPROVED. THE GFS/EURO BOTH SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
JUST WEST OF SAN FRAN ON WED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT POPS QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTH. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAIN...SIMILAR TO JULY 4TH 2013...IS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE SQUEEZE PLAY CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. FCH SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND
ANOMALOUS LOW OFF THE CALI COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WITH SW FLOW OVER
THE SIERRA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS MODEST
FLOW/ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MEANDER WEST OF SAN FRAN. THIS WILL KEEP MARGINAL FLOW
ALOFT AND AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE. STORM COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY BE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS FEATURE WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS IT
COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF CONTINUED STORMINESS. IN CENTRAL NEVADA...
IT COULD BECOME QUITE DRY WITH GUSTY SW/S WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KTPH. TEMPOS WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING FOR TSRA. DECIDED TO KEEP KTPH
DRY...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. THEY WILL HAVE AT LEAST CU BUILD UP AND
PERHAPS VCSH. AGAIN...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY TS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP
VCTS IN KELY/KWMC AND VCHS AT KEKO.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94




000
FXUS65 KLKN 030243
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
743 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN NEVADA CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO REDUCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NV FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS SATELLITE PICS AND
LIGHTNING DETECTION ONLY SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
HRRR/RAP MODELS ALSO ONLY SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 313 PM /

SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN NEVADA CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RADAR IS DEPICTING ECHOES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM
SPEEDS ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A
CELL THAT VENTURED OVER THE NWS OFFICE HERE GAVE AN ESTIMATED
0.19 INCHES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DECENT RAIN FALL WHERE STORMS HAPPEN
TO MOVE OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MILD...UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING SOUTHERN
LANDER/EUREKA...WHITE PINE COUNTY...AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. RIDGE OVER NEVADA
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AT WHICH TIME AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL...GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE WEAKENING RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOWER INTO THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THOUGH MAY STILL SEE SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR BEGINS TO PUSH UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
NEVADA...GENERALLY ELKO COUNTY AND AREAS NORTH OF I80 IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY.

AVIATION...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO 40 KT.
SIMILAR WEATHER ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/86





000
FXUS65 KLKN 030243
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
743 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN NEVADA CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO REDUCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NV FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS SATELLITE PICS AND
LIGHTNING DETECTION ONLY SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
HRRR/RAP MODELS ALSO ONLY SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 313 PM /

SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN NEVADA CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RADAR IS DEPICTING ECHOES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM
SPEEDS ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A
CELL THAT VENTURED OVER THE NWS OFFICE HERE GAVE AN ESTIMATED
0.19 INCHES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DECENT RAIN FALL WHERE STORMS HAPPEN
TO MOVE OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MILD...UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING SOUTHERN
LANDER/EUREKA...WHITE PINE COUNTY...AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. RIDGE OVER NEVADA
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AT WHICH TIME AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL...GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE WEAKENING RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOWER INTO THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THOUGH MAY STILL SEE SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR BEGINS TO PUSH UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
NEVADA...GENERALLY ELKO COUNTY AND AREAS NORTH OF I80 IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY.

AVIATION...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO 40 KT.
SIMILAR WEATHER ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/86




000
FXUS65 KLKN 022213
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
313 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN NEVADA CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RADAR IS DEPICTING ECHOES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM
SPEEDS ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A
CELL THAT VENTURED OVER THE NWS OFFICE HERE GAVE AN ESTIMATED
0.19 INCHES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DECENT RAIN FALL WHERE STORMS HAPPEN
TO MOVE OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MILD...UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING SOUTHERN
LANDER/EUREKA...WHITE PINE COUNTY...AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. RIDGE OVER NEVADA
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AT WHICH TIME AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL...GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE WEAKENING RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOWER INTO THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THOUGH MAY STILL SEE SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR BEGINS TO PUSH UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
NEVADA...GENERALLY ELKO COUNTY AND AREAS NORTH OF I80 IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO 40 KT.
SIMILAR WEATHER ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 022213
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
313 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN NEVADA CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RADAR IS DEPICTING ECHOES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM
SPEEDS ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A
CELL THAT VENTURED OVER THE NWS OFFICE HERE GAVE AN ESTIMATED
0.19 INCHES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DECENT RAIN FALL WHERE STORMS HAPPEN
TO MOVE OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MILD...UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING SOUTHERN
LANDER/EUREKA...WHITE PINE COUNTY...AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. RIDGE OVER NEVADA
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AT WHICH TIME AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL...GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE WEAKENING RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOWER INTO THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THOUGH MAY STILL SEE SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR BEGINS TO PUSH UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
NEVADA...GENERALLY ELKO COUNTY AND AREAS NORTH OF I80 IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO 40 KT.
SIMILAR WEATHER ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/96/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 022213
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
313 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN NEVADA CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RADAR IS DEPICTING ECHOES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM
SPEEDS ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A
CELL THAT VENTURED OVER THE NWS OFFICE HERE GAVE AN ESTIMATED
0.19 INCHES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DECENT RAIN FALL WHERE STORMS HAPPEN
TO MOVE OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MILD...UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING SOUTHERN
LANDER/EUREKA...WHITE PINE COUNTY...AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. RIDGE OVER NEVADA
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AT WHICH TIME AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL...GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE WEAKENING RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOWER INTO THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THOUGH MAY STILL SEE SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR BEGINS TO PUSH UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
NEVADA...GENERALLY ELKO COUNTY AND AREAS NORTH OF I80 IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO 40 KT.
SIMILAR WEATHER ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 022213
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
313 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN NEVADA CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RADAR IS DEPICTING ECHOES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM
SPEEDS ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A
CELL THAT VENTURED OVER THE NWS OFFICE HERE GAVE AN ESTIMATED
0.19 INCHES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DECENT RAIN FALL WHERE STORMS HAPPEN
TO MOVE OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MILD...UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING SOUTHERN
LANDER/EUREKA...WHITE PINE COUNTY...AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. RIDGE OVER NEVADA
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AT WHICH TIME AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL...GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE WEAKENING RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOWER INTO THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THOUGH MAY STILL SEE SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR BEGINS TO PUSH UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
NEVADA...GENERALLY ELKO COUNTY AND AREAS NORTH OF I80 IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO 40 KT.
SIMILAR WEATHER ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/96/96




000
FXUS65 KLKN 020942
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
242 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HOT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. THIS LINE IS PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HOWEVER
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DESIST BY 3 AM PDT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER THE SYNOPTIC HIGH WILL BE MODIFYING AND THUS
WILL PROMOTE A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE LKN CWFA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS
TODAY...GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT AS ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF NOCTURNAL CAPE SHOWING OVERNIGHT SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH TODAY AND MAY
INCREASE ON FRIDAY TOWARDS THE WESTERN CWFA AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
GETS PULLED UP. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM UNDER THE RIDGE WITH 100 DEGREE PLUS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY FOR SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING SPREAD IS NOTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SLIGHT COOLING...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S TO AROUND
100 IN PLACES. UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALI COAST AND FCH OVER THE
SW WILL SPREAD AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BUSIEST DAYS ACROSS NV
...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE 1 INCH. CONTINUED TO BUMP UP POPS AND
MOISTURE LEVELS. AS FOR SVR WEATHER...TOO EARLY TO PREDICT. CAPE
WILL BE QUITE HIGH...BUT SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. BEST
DAY FOR SVR WEATHER WOULD BE SATURDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS
ACROSS NE NEVADA. THIS WILL INCREASE FLOW AND SHEAR. ANOTHER
THREAT...MAYBE THE BIGGER THREAT...WILL BE FROM FLASH FLOODING.
REGARDLESS OF STEERING MOTION...FAVORABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT PWATS
WILL DIP BACK TO ~0.75 INCHES. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
DECREASE AND BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE/END OF
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS AS HEIGHTS RELAX A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST AREAS HAVE CLEARED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. ANOTHER ROUND OF VCTS/TSRA IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
KELY/KTPH/KWMC. KEKO IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH TS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94





000
FXUS65 KLKN 020942
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
242 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HOT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. THIS LINE IS PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HOWEVER
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DESIST BY 3 AM PDT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER THE SYNOPTIC HIGH WILL BE MODIFYING AND THUS
WILL PROMOTE A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE LKN CWFA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS
TODAY...GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT AS ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF NOCTURNAL CAPE SHOWING OVERNIGHT SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH TODAY AND MAY
INCREASE ON FRIDAY TOWARDS THE WESTERN CWFA AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
GETS PULLED UP. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM UNDER THE RIDGE WITH 100 DEGREE PLUS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY FOR SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING SPREAD IS NOTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SLIGHT COOLING...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S TO AROUND
100 IN PLACES. UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALI COAST AND FCH OVER THE
SW WILL SPREAD AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BUSIEST DAYS ACROSS NV
...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE 1 INCH. CONTINUED TO BUMP UP POPS AND
MOISTURE LEVELS. AS FOR SVR WEATHER...TOO EARLY TO PREDICT. CAPE
WILL BE QUITE HIGH...BUT SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. BEST
DAY FOR SVR WEATHER WOULD BE SATURDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS
ACROSS NE NEVADA. THIS WILL INCREASE FLOW AND SHEAR. ANOTHER
THREAT...MAYBE THE BIGGER THREAT...WILL BE FROM FLASH FLOODING.
REGARDLESS OF STEERING MOTION...FAVORABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT PWATS
WILL DIP BACK TO ~0.75 INCHES. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
DECREASE AND BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE/END OF
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS AS HEIGHTS RELAX A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST AREAS HAVE CLEARED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. ANOTHER ROUND OF VCTS/TSRA IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
KELY/KTPH/KWMC. KEKO IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH TS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94




000
FXUS65 KLKN 020942
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
242 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HOT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. THIS LINE IS PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HOWEVER
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DESIST BY 3 AM PDT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER THE SYNOPTIC HIGH WILL BE MODIFYING AND THUS
WILL PROMOTE A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE LKN CWFA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS
TODAY...GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT AS ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF NOCTURNAL CAPE SHOWING OVERNIGHT SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH TODAY AND MAY
INCREASE ON FRIDAY TOWARDS THE WESTERN CWFA AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
GETS PULLED UP. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM UNDER THE RIDGE WITH 100 DEGREE PLUS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY FOR SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING SPREAD IS NOTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SLIGHT COOLING...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S TO AROUND
100 IN PLACES. UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALI COAST AND FCH OVER THE
SW WILL SPREAD AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BUSIEST DAYS ACROSS NV
...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE 1 INCH. CONTINUED TO BUMP UP POPS AND
MOISTURE LEVELS. AS FOR SVR WEATHER...TOO EARLY TO PREDICT. CAPE
WILL BE QUITE HIGH...BUT SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. BEST
DAY FOR SVR WEATHER WOULD BE SATURDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS
ACROSS NE NEVADA. THIS WILL INCREASE FLOW AND SHEAR. ANOTHER
THREAT...MAYBE THE BIGGER THREAT...WILL BE FROM FLASH FLOODING.
REGARDLESS OF STEERING MOTION...FAVORABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT PWATS
WILL DIP BACK TO ~0.75 INCHES. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
DECREASE AND BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE/END OF
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS AS HEIGHTS RELAX A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST AREAS HAVE CLEARED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. ANOTHER ROUND OF VCTS/TSRA IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
KELY/KTPH/KWMC. KEKO IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH TS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94





000
FXUS65 KLKN 020942
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
242 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HOT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. THIS LINE IS PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HOWEVER
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DESIST BY 3 AM PDT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER THE SYNOPTIC HIGH WILL BE MODIFYING AND THUS
WILL PROMOTE A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE LKN CWFA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS
TODAY...GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT AS ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF NOCTURNAL CAPE SHOWING OVERNIGHT SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH TODAY AND MAY
INCREASE ON FRIDAY TOWARDS THE WESTERN CWFA AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
GETS PULLED UP. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM UNDER THE RIDGE WITH 100 DEGREE PLUS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY FOR SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING SPREAD IS NOTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SLIGHT COOLING...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S TO AROUND
100 IN PLACES. UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALI COAST AND FCH OVER THE
SW WILL SPREAD AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BUSIEST DAYS ACROSS NV
...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE 1 INCH. CONTINUED TO BUMP UP POPS AND
MOISTURE LEVELS. AS FOR SVR WEATHER...TOO EARLY TO PREDICT. CAPE
WILL BE QUITE HIGH...BUT SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. BEST
DAY FOR SVR WEATHER WOULD BE SATURDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS
ACROSS NE NEVADA. THIS WILL INCREASE FLOW AND SHEAR. ANOTHER
THREAT...MAYBE THE BIGGER THREAT...WILL BE FROM FLASH FLOODING.
REGARDLESS OF STEERING MOTION...FAVORABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT PWATS
WILL DIP BACK TO ~0.75 INCHES. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
DECREASE AND BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE/END OF
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS AS HEIGHTS RELAX A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST AREAS HAVE CLEARED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. ANOTHER ROUND OF VCTS/TSRA IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
KELY/KTPH/KWMC. KEKO IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH TS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94




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