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000
FXUS65 KLKN 262137
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
237 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS....STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AT MANY LOCALES. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
LITTLE COOLING AND SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MANY LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRUSHES THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING ABOUT 5
TO 7 DEGREES OF COOLING AND SOME CLOUDS. WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE
SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL NV AND MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE INSTABILITY
FOR SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. ON SUNDAY THIS DEFORMATION ZONE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BIT
DUE TO WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA
COAST. NAM SHOWING LI DOWN TO -2C WITH CAPE OF 200-300 J/KG. THE
GFS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE BUT STILL SHOWING LI OF -1C TO -2C AND
CAPE OF 150-200 J/KG SO INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NV INTO SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE RUBY MOUNTAINS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
OVERALL GENERALLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST ALL THE LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM. ALL DIVERGE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY
DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE STARTS OFF GOOD
BUT ENDS UP LOW BY NEXT THURSDAY.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY; HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT/SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SPREADS HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST OF THE FRONT/SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA SO MOST FOLKS WILL SIMPLY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WIND...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AND MORE CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY. SOME MTN PEAKS IN NORTHERN ELKO COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
BUT THATS PRETTY MUCH IT. BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN FAIRLY NICE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS STILL
RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE. ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AM. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE
GFS DEPICTS A FAIRLY WEAK AND POSITIVE TILT TROF PROGRESSING
EASTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A SIGNIFICANT TROF AS IT DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE. BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND THE WAY THIS WINTER/EARLY SPRING HAS WENT LEANED
HEAVILY TO THE GFS SOLUTION AND BROUGHT IN HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
WITH SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER MTN PEAKS. ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...CLOSER TO AVERAGE WHICH WOULD BE MID TO UPPER
50S. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE GEM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DID NOT
SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF PERTUBATIONS IN
THE GFS ENSEMBLE DID MIRROR IT.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24HRS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/85/85





000
FXUS65 KLKN 262137
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
237 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS....STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AT MANY LOCALES. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
LITTLE COOLING AND SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MANY LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRUSHES THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING ABOUT 5
TO 7 DEGREES OF COOLING AND SOME CLOUDS. WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE
SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL NV AND MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE INSTABILITY
FOR SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. ON SUNDAY THIS DEFORMATION ZONE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BIT
DUE TO WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA
COAST. NAM SHOWING LI DOWN TO -2C WITH CAPE OF 200-300 J/KG. THE
GFS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE BUT STILL SHOWING LI OF -1C TO -2C AND
CAPE OF 150-200 J/KG SO INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NV INTO SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE RUBY MOUNTAINS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
OVERALL GENERALLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST ALL THE LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM. ALL DIVERGE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY
DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE STARTS OFF GOOD
BUT ENDS UP LOW BY NEXT THURSDAY.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY; HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT/SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SPREADS HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST OF THE FRONT/SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA SO MOST FOLKS WILL SIMPLY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WIND...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AND MORE CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY. SOME MTN PEAKS IN NORTHERN ELKO COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
BUT THATS PRETTY MUCH IT. BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN FAIRLY NICE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS STILL
RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE. ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AM. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE
GFS DEPICTS A FAIRLY WEAK AND POSITIVE TILT TROF PROGRESSING
EASTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A SIGNIFICANT TROF AS IT DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE. BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND THE WAY THIS WINTER/EARLY SPRING HAS WENT LEANED
HEAVILY TO THE GFS SOLUTION AND BROUGHT IN HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
WITH SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER MTN PEAKS. ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...CLOSER TO AVERAGE WHICH WOULD BE MID TO UPPER
50S. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE GEM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DID NOT
SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF PERTUBATIONS IN
THE GFS ENSEMBLE DID MIRROR IT.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24HRS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/85/85




000
FXUS65 KLKN 260936
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
236 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO NEVADA THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING A SHARP WARMING TREND. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AT MANY LOCALES. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE THIS MORNING
SHOWING JUST A FEW CLOUDS OUT THERE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
CIRCULATION IS JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA. FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR THE
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S OVER THE AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND SOUTH. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
TOMORROW WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MANY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND ALLOWS SOME
ENERGY PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE STILL NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST EUROPEAN
SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS SOME MEASURE OF A FLAT RIDGE. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRID FOR SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING IN THE VALLEYS AND PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE COOLED OFF FROM YESTERDAY...IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WHICH IS NOT QUITE RECORD TERRITORY BUT
STILL WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES MAINLY SKIRTING NORTHERN NEVADA. SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY KICK OFF A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN THUNDER AS THE GFS SHOWS LI`S
NEAR -2...HOWEVER EC IS WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEPT FORECAST
DRY...TUESDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THE GFS
AND GEFS ONCE AGAIN HINT AT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HOWEVER THE EC IS
DRIER...HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING SHOWERS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WEDNESDAY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT LOOKS
DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE FRIDAY AND
RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY. HERE ARE THE EXISTING RECORDS AND
FORECAST HIGHS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING:

           RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT     FRIDAY    FRIDAY

ELKO        75/1986     77
ELY         70/1986     73
EUREKA      73/1986     76
TONOPAH     74/1986     77
WINNEMUCCA  77/1986     77

LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ON
SATURDAY AND A VERY ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/90/90/86




000
FXUS65 KLKN 260936
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
236 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO NEVADA THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING A SHARP WARMING TREND. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AT MANY LOCALES. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE THIS MORNING
SHOWING JUST A FEW CLOUDS OUT THERE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
CIRCULATION IS JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA. FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR THE
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S OVER THE AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND SOUTH. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
TOMORROW WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MANY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN
JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND ALLOWS SOME
ENERGY PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE STILL NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST EUROPEAN
SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS SOME MEASURE OF A FLAT RIDGE. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRID FOR SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING IN THE VALLEYS AND PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE COOLED OFF FROM YESTERDAY...IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WHICH IS NOT QUITE RECORD TERRITORY BUT
STILL WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES MAINLY SKIRTING NORTHERN NEVADA. SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY KICK OFF A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN THUNDER AS THE GFS SHOWS LI`S
NEAR -2...HOWEVER EC IS WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEPT FORECAST
DRY...TUESDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THE GFS
AND GEFS ONCE AGAIN HINT AT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HOWEVER THE EC IS
DRIER...HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING SHOWERS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WEDNESDAY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT LOOKS
DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE FRIDAY AND
RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY. HERE ARE THE EXISTING RECORDS AND
FORECAST HIGHS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING:

           RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT     FRIDAY    FRIDAY

ELKO        75/1986     77
ELY         70/1986     73
EUREKA      73/1986     76
TONOPAH     74/1986     77
WINNEMUCCA  77/1986     77

LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ON
SATURDAY AND A VERY ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/90/90/86





000
FXUS65 KLKN 252145
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
245 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEVADA THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING A RAPID WARMING TREND. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS WEEEKEND...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STRONGLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE AXIS
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WEAKENING NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL CLOUDS AROUND THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH A CLEARING SKY EXPECTED AT SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY EASTWARD INTO NEVADA,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR RENO, AND A 583 DM UPPER HIGH OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY 5 PM. 500 MB HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580 DM
ACROSS THE LKN CWA BY AFTERNOON. A RAPID WARMING TREND IS ENSURED,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. VERY LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE, LESS THAN 10 MPH FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. A PERFECT EARLY SPRING DAY, IF YOU DON`T MIND THE
PERSISTING DROUGHT.

FRIDAY...THE WARMEST DAY, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER
EASTERN NEVADA BY 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WILL BE COMMON, WITH THE WARMEST VALLEYS CRACKING 80 DEGREES.
RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY. THE NUMBER TO BEAT AT ELKO REGIONAL
AIRPORT FOR MARCH 27TH IS 75 SET IN 1986, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
FOR ELKO IS 77 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW WARM
THIS IS, THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT ELKO
IS 78, SET IN 1910 AND 2004. SW WINDS PICK UP A TOUCH, AT 5-15
MPH.

SATURDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SE OF NEVADA, AND THAT ALONE
WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING VERSUS FRIDAY`S NEAR
RECORD READINGS. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO CAPTURE A WEAK SHORTWAVE`S TRACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS
FEATURE, BOTH BETWEEN EACH OTHER, AND FROM RUN TO RUN OF THE SAME
MODEL. THE LATEST RENDITION SHOWS THE GFS PLACING ITS 568 DM LOW
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
RACING IT ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
FORTUNATELY, FROM A FORECAST PERSPECTIVE, THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK, AND
NO MATTER WHERE IT GOES, IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED. ONLY EXPECTING SOME EXTRA CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS
MODEL HAS A WEAK LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CA SIERRA MTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF BEGINS TO BUILD IN WEAK RIDGING OVER
NEVADA. CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EC...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR GREAT BASIN NATIONAL
PARK AND DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ALL MODELS SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA MONDAY...WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
TUESDAY AS TROUGH ENERGY MOVES IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
NORTHERN NV REGION. PUT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NE ELKO
COUNTY...GENERALLY OVER MT AREAS...FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFTED
INDICES APPROACH ZERO. ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND NORTHERN NV REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED
CLOUDS...HOWEVER HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING SHOWERS AS AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE STABLE THAN THE TUESDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/96/96





000
FXUS65 KLKN 250952
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
252 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE HIGH ELEVATION AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDS STREAMING ATOP A RIDGE. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AT
THIS TIME. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER
THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY JOGS EAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN DURING
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN TAKING THE UPPER RIDGE A
BIT MORE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO CHALLENGE SOME RECORD HIGHS...PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS COMING INTO A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE GFS IS DEEPER/WETTER THAN GEFS
AND EC SOLUTIONS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND SKY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LI`S
APPROACH -2 AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF CONVECTION MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY ON SATURDAY
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S COMMON ACROSS THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY...A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT NORTHERN NEVADA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MOISTURE SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH A FEW MID AND
SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. HERE ARE THE
EXISTING RECORDS AND FORECAST HIGHS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING:

            RECORD   FORECAST   RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT     FRIDAY    FRIDAY   SATURDAY  SATURDAY

ELKO        75/1986     76      75/1986     77
ELY         70/1986     73      71/1986     75
EUREKA      73/1986     76      68/1994     78
TONOPAH     74/1986     77      76/1986     78
WINNEMUCCA  77/1986     75      76/1986     73

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT
AND DECREASING THE RISK OF RECORD HIGHS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/90/90




000
FXUS65 KLKN 250952
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
252 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE HIGH ELEVATION AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDS STREAMING ATOP A RIDGE. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AT
THIS TIME. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER
THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY JOGS EAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN DURING
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN TAKING THE UPPER RIDGE A
BIT MORE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO CHALLENGE SOME RECORD HIGHS...PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS COMING INTO A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE GFS IS DEEPER/WETTER THAN GEFS
AND EC SOLUTIONS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND SKY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LI`S
APPROACH -2 AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF CONVECTION MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY ON SATURDAY
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S COMMON ACROSS THE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY...A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT NORTHERN NEVADA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MOISTURE SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH A FEW MID AND
SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. HERE ARE THE
EXISTING RECORDS AND FORECAST HIGHS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING:

            RECORD   FORECAST   RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT     FRIDAY    FRIDAY   SATURDAY  SATURDAY

ELKO        75/1986     76      75/1986     77
ELY         70/1986     73      71/1986     75
EUREKA      73/1986     76      68/1994     78
TONOPAH     74/1986     77      76/1986     78
WINNEMUCCA  77/1986     75      76/1986     73

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT
AND DECREASING THE RISK OF RECORD HIGHS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/90/90





000
FXUS65 KLKN 242105
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
205 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGERING OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA
THIS EVENING. THEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGERING OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

12Z GFS/ECMWF STILL IN MAJOR DISAGREEMENT REGARDING WHERE TO PLACE A
SMALL COMPACT UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF PLACES THE LOW JUST
NORTH OF RENO AT 5 PM SATURDAY, WHILE GFS HAS THE LOW OUT TO SEA IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC, HUNDREDS OF MILES SW OF LOS ANGELES. BOTH HAVE
SHOWN CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN, NOT HELPING MATTERS. WITH A NOD TO THE
ECMWF, AND WITH GFS HINTING AT ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WELL,
INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS NW NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH MODELS IN DISARRAY, POPS ARE LIMITED TO ISOLATED (24% OR LESS).
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS SATURDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, WITH 12Z MEX
FORECASTING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 75 AT ELKO, AND 12Z ECMWF BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FORECASTING 79 AT ELKO. THE RECORD HIGH AT ELKO
FOR SAT MARCH 28TH IS 75 SET IN 1986, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN. FORECASTED A HIGH OF 77 AT ELKO FOR SATURDAY.

IN ANOTHER NOD TO THE ECMWF, MENTIONED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, WITH GFS AND OTHER
MODELS HINTING AT SOME ACTIVITY AS WELL. 12Z ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
LOW AND STRONG VORTICITY MAX DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT,
AND WOULD RESULT IN NOCTURNAL THUNDER IF IT WERE TO VERIFY. KEPT
THUNDER MENTION CONFINED TO AFTERNOON PERIODS FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS
SORT THEMSELVES OUT.

SUNDAY...ECMWF MOVES COMPACT LOW AND VORT MAX EAST INTO UTAH WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER BY AFTERNOON. MENTIONED ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING. INTERESTINGLY, EVEN THOUGH
GFS PLACES ITS 562 LOW SW OF SAN DIEGO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS
FORECASTS DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES FALLING BELOW ZERO
OVER THE NE 1/2 OF THE CWA. AS SUCH, MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LINING UP WITH GFS QPF OUTPUT,
FAVORING THE NE NEVADA MOUNTAINS. WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL "COOL" BACK TO THE
UPPER 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE COOLING TO VARIOUS DEGREES, SO LOWERED
MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES. BT

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LOW TO MID OVC CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A FEW -SHRA
MAINLY NORTH OF KWMC/KEKO THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, PROBABLY JUST
VCSH AT THE TERMINALS. STRONG GUSTY W/NW WINDS, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS, WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AFTER 03Z. ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO NEVADA FROM THE EAST PACIFIC, PROVIDING VFR. N/NW
BREEZES AT TERMINALS, AT SPEEDS REDUCED FROM THOSE SEEN TODAY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 241732
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1032 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM PASSING JUST NORTH OF NEVADA WILL BRING
A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATER THIS WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS TIME...HAVE CANCELLED THE IMPACT-BASED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 353 AM /

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS IS ALREADY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. WITH TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING...DECIDED TO THROW UP AN IMPACT-BASED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS THIS MORNING. THIS
COULD MAKE TRAVEL A BIT SLOWER THAN NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY. ONLY RAN IT TIL NOON SINCE WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING
INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN NIL IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON WHETHER ITS
STILL SNOWING OR NOT. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND ALL OF IT SHOULD END QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF US. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...BUT REALLY NOT BAD FOR
MARCH WITH 40S FAR NORTH AND 50S IN MANY OTHER AREAS.

RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE ENDLESS WARMTH CONTINUES...
RCM.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. ALL STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH READINGS APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EUROPEAN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. HAVE KEPT GHOST POPS IN THE LONG RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE EXTREME MODEL VARIABILITY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS W-NW10-20G35KT ACROSS TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH ROUGHLY 25/03Z.

CLIMATE...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. HERE ARE THE
EXISTING RECORDS AND FORECAST HIGHS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING:

            RECORD   FORECAST   RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT     FRIDAY    FRIDAY   SATURDAY  SATURDAY

ELKO        75/1986     75      75/1986     76
ELY         70/1986     72      71/1986     74
EUREKA      73/1986     75      68/1994     77
TONOPAH     74/1986     77      76/1986     77
WINNEMUCCA  77/1986     76      76/1986     71

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT
AND DECREASING THE RISK OF RECORD HIGHS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/86/93





000
FXUS65 KLKN 241732
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1032 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM PASSING JUST NORTH OF NEVADA WILL BRING
A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATER THIS WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS TIME...HAVE CANCELLED THE IMPACT-BASED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 353 AM /

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS IS ALREADY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. WITH TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING...DECIDED TO THROW UP AN IMPACT-BASED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS THIS MORNING. THIS
COULD MAKE TRAVEL A BIT SLOWER THAN NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY. ONLY RAN IT TIL NOON SINCE WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING
INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN NIL IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON WHETHER ITS
STILL SNOWING OR NOT. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND ALL OF IT SHOULD END QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF US. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...BUT REALLY NOT BAD FOR
MARCH WITH 40S FAR NORTH AND 50S IN MANY OTHER AREAS.

RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE ENDLESS WARMTH CONTINUES...
RCM.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. ALL STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH READINGS APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EUROPEAN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. HAVE KEPT GHOST POPS IN THE LONG RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE EXTREME MODEL VARIABILITY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS W-NW10-20G35KT ACROSS TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH ROUGHLY 25/03Z.

CLIMATE...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. HERE ARE THE
EXISTING RECORDS AND FORECAST HIGHS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING:

            RECORD   FORECAST   RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT     FRIDAY    FRIDAY   SATURDAY  SATURDAY

ELKO        75/1986     75      75/1986     76
ELY         70/1986     72      71/1986     74
EUREKA      73/1986     75      68/1994     77
TONOPAH     74/1986     77      76/1986     77
WINNEMUCCA  77/1986     76      76/1986     71

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT
AND DECREASING THE RISK OF RECORD HIGHS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/86/93




000
FXUS65 KLKN 241732
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1032 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM PASSING JUST NORTH OF NEVADA WILL BRING
A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATER THIS WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS TIME...HAVE CANCELLED THE IMPACT-BASED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 353 AM /

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS IS ALREADY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. WITH TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING...DECIDED TO THROW UP AN IMPACT-BASED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS THIS MORNING. THIS
COULD MAKE TRAVEL A BIT SLOWER THAN NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY. ONLY RAN IT TIL NOON SINCE WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING
INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN NIL IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON WHETHER ITS
STILL SNOWING OR NOT. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND ALL OF IT SHOULD END QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF US. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...BUT REALLY NOT BAD FOR
MARCH WITH 40S FAR NORTH AND 50S IN MANY OTHER AREAS.

RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE ENDLESS WARMTH CONTINUES...
RCM.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. ALL STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH READINGS APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EUROPEAN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. HAVE KEPT GHOST POPS IN THE LONG RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE EXTREME MODEL VARIABILITY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS W-NW10-20G35KT ACROSS TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH ROUGHLY 25/03Z.

CLIMATE...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. HERE ARE THE
EXISTING RECORDS AND FORECAST HIGHS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING:

            RECORD   FORECAST   RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT     FRIDAY    FRIDAY   SATURDAY  SATURDAY

ELKO        75/1986     75      75/1986     76
ELY         70/1986     72      71/1986     74
EUREKA      73/1986     75      68/1994     77
TONOPAH     74/1986     77      76/1986     77
WINNEMUCCA  77/1986     76      76/1986     71

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT
AND DECREASING THE RISK OF RECORD HIGHS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/86/93




000
FXUS65 KLKN 241053 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
353 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM PASSING JUST NORTH OF NEVADA WILL BRING
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK...AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS IS ALREADY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. WITH TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING...DECIDED TO THROW UP AN IMPACT-BASED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS THIS MORNING. THIS
COULD MAKE TRAVEL A BIT SLOWER THAN NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY. ONLY RAN IT TIL NOON SINCE WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING
INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN NIL IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON WHETHER ITS
STILL SNOWING OR NOT. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND ALL OF IT SHOULD END QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF US. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...BUT REALLY NOT BAD FOR MARCH
WITH 40S FAR NORTH AND 50S IN MANY OTHER AREAS.

RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE ENDLESS WARMTH CONTINUES...
RCM.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. ALL STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH READINGS APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EUROPEAN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. HAVE KEPT GHOST POPS IN THE LONG RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE EXTREME MODEL VARIABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS W-NW10-20G35KT ACROSS TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH ROUGHLY 25/03Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. HERE ARE THE
EXISTING RECORDS AND FORECAST HIGHS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING:

            RECORD   FORECAST   RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT     FRIDAY    FRIDAY   SATURDAY  SATURDAY

ELKO        75/1986     75      75/1986     76
ELY         70/1986     72      71/1986     74
EUREKA      73/1986     75      68/1994     77
TONOPAH     74/1986     77      76/1986     77
WINNEMUCCA  77/1986     76      76/1986     71

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT
AND DECREASING THE RISK OF RECORD HIGHS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY.

&&

$$

93/86/86/93




000
FXUS65 KLKN 241053 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
353 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM PASSING JUST NORTH OF NEVADA WILL BRING
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK...AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS IS ALREADY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. WITH TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING...DECIDED TO THROW UP AN IMPACT-BASED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS THIS MORNING. THIS
COULD MAKE TRAVEL A BIT SLOWER THAN NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY. ONLY RAN IT TIL NOON SINCE WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING
INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN NIL IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON WHETHER ITS
STILL SNOWING OR NOT. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND ALL OF IT SHOULD END QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF US. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...BUT REALLY NOT BAD FOR MARCH
WITH 40S FAR NORTH AND 50S IN MANY OTHER AREAS.

RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE ENDLESS WARMTH CONTINUES...
RCM.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. ALL STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH READINGS APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EUROPEAN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. HAVE KEPT GHOST POPS IN THE LONG RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE EXTREME MODEL VARIABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS W-NW10-20G35KT ACROSS TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH ROUGHLY 25/03Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. HERE ARE THE
EXISTING RECORDS AND FORECAST HIGHS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING:

            RECORD   FORECAST   RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT     FRIDAY    FRIDAY   SATURDAY  SATURDAY

ELKO        75/1986     75      75/1986     76
ELY         70/1986     72      71/1986     74
EUREKA      73/1986     75      68/1994     77
TONOPAH     74/1986     77      76/1986     77
WINNEMUCCA  77/1986     76      76/1986     71

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT
AND DECREASING THE RISK OF RECORD HIGHS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY.

&&

$$

93/86/86/93




000
FXUS65 KLKN 241053
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
353 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM PASSING JUST NORTH OF NEVADA WILL BRING
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK...AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS IS ALREADY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. WITH TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING...DECIDED TO THROW UP AN IMPACT-BASED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS THIS MORNING. THIS
COULD MAKE TRAVEL A BIT SLOWER THAN NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY. ONLY RAN IT TIL NOON SINCE WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING
INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN NIL IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON WHETHER ITS
STILL SNOWING OR NOT. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND ALL OF IT SHOULD THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE TROF OFF THE WEST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUBSTANTIALLY AND EXPAND OVER NEVADA. THE
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN NEVADA ON FRIDAY. THIS
RESULTS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE MODELS HAVE DISCREPANCIES WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROF.
THE ECMWF AND DGEX ARE STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN
THE GFS AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA. THE EC AND DGEX KEEP THE
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NV SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSHING THE UPPER LOW TO
CENTRAL NV DURING THE DAY WHILE GFS HAS IT IN UTAH. THE EC AND DGEX
SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE NO MENTION OF POPS OR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS AND BEING DAY 7...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON. D END QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF US. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...BUT REALLY NOT BAD FOR
MARCH WITH 40S FAR NORTH AND 50S IN MANY OTHER AREAS.

RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE ENDLESS WARMTH
CONTINUES... RCM

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. ALL STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH READINGS APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EUROPEAN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. HAVE KEPT GHOST POPS IN THE LONG RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE EXTREME MODEL VARIABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS W-NW10-20G35KT ACROSS TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH ROUGHLY 25/03Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. HERE ARE THE
EXISTING RECORDS AND FORECAST HIGHS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING:

            RECORD   FORECAST   RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT     FRIDAY    FRIDAY   SATURDAY  SATURDAY

ELKO        75/1986     75      75/1986     76
ELY         70/1986     72      71/1986     74
EUREKA      73/1986     75      68/1994     77
TONOPAH     74/1986     77      76/1986     77
WINNEMUCCA  77/1986     76      76/1986     71

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT
AND DECREASING THE RISK OF RECORD HIGHS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY.

&&

$$

93/86/86/93





000
FXUS65 KLKN 241053
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
353 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM PASSING JUST NORTH OF NEVADA WILL BRING
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK...AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS IS ALREADY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. WITH TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING...DECIDED TO THROW UP AN IMPACT-BASED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS THIS MORNING. THIS
COULD MAKE TRAVEL A BIT SLOWER THAN NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY. ONLY RAN IT TIL NOON SINCE WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING
INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN NIL IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON WHETHER ITS
STILL SNOWING OR NOT. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND ALL OF IT SHOULD THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE TROF OFF THE WEST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUBSTANTIALLY AND EXPAND OVER NEVADA. THE
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN NEVADA ON FRIDAY. THIS
RESULTS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE MODELS HAVE DISCREPANCIES WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROF.
THE ECMWF AND DGEX ARE STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN
THE GFS AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA. THE EC AND DGEX KEEP THE
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NV SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSHING THE UPPER LOW TO
CENTRAL NV DURING THE DAY WHILE GFS HAS IT IN UTAH. THE EC AND DGEX
SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE NO MENTION OF POPS OR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS AND BEING DAY 7...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON. D END QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF US. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...BUT REALLY NOT BAD FOR
MARCH WITH 40S FAR NORTH AND 50S IN MANY OTHER AREAS.

RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE ENDLESS WARMTH
CONTINUES... RCM

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. ALL STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH READINGS APPROACHING NEAR
RECORD CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EUROPEAN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. HAVE KEPT GHOST POPS IN THE LONG RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE EXTREME MODEL VARIABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS W-NW10-20G35KT ACROSS TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH ROUGHLY 25/03Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. HERE ARE THE
EXISTING RECORDS AND FORECAST HIGHS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING:

            RECORD   FORECAST   RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT     FRIDAY    FRIDAY   SATURDAY  SATURDAY

ELKO        75/1986     75      75/1986     76
ELY         70/1986     72      71/1986     74
EUREKA      73/1986     75      68/1994     77
TONOPAH     74/1986     77      76/1986     77
WINNEMUCCA  77/1986     76      76/1986     71

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT
AND DECREASING THE RISK OF RECORD HIGHS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY.

&&

$$

93/86/86/93




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