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000
FXUS65 KLKN 231000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ACROSS NEVADA WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO NEVADA TODAY, AND REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES EACH DAY. A PLEASANT WARMING TREND
WILL RESULT. SOME CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO NEVADA FROM THE NORTH
FROM TIME TO TIME, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. FANTASTIC
WEATHER TO GET TO GRANDMA`S HOUSE FOR THANKSGIVING.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OVER THE LKN CWFA THERE
TENDS TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN
THERE IS SOME DOWNSTREAM MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THERE ARE NO
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL CONCERNS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SITUATED ABOUT 270 MILES OFFSHORE AND REMAIN STATIONARY
WHILE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTAL HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
50 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50.

THANKSGIVING DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN RESPONSE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL START TO DE-AMPLIFY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST ENOUGH TO CREATE A RESURGENCE OF RIDGING
OVER NEVADA AND ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE ON TAP. EARLY MORNING
SHOPPERS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN ON BLACK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KELY AND KTPH THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR KWMC AND
KEKO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/92/92





000
FXUS65 KLKN 231000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ACROSS NEVADA WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO NEVADA TODAY, AND REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES EACH DAY. A PLEASANT WARMING TREND
WILL RESULT. SOME CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO NEVADA FROM THE NORTH
FROM TIME TO TIME, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. FANTASTIC
WEATHER TO GET TO GRANDMA`S HOUSE FOR THANKSGIVING.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OVER THE LKN CWFA THERE
TENDS TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN
THERE IS SOME DOWNSTREAM MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THERE ARE NO
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL CONCERNS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SITUATED ABOUT 270 MILES OFFSHORE AND REMAIN STATIONARY
WHILE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTAL HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
50 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50.

THANKSGIVING DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN RESPONSE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL START TO DE-AMPLIFY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST ENOUGH TO CREATE A RESURGENCE OF RIDGING
OVER NEVADA AND ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE ON TAP. EARLY MORNING
SHOPPERS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN ON BLACK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KELY AND KTPH THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR KWMC AND
KEKO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/92/92




000
FXUS65 KLKN 231000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ACROSS NEVADA WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO NEVADA TODAY, AND REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES EACH DAY. A PLEASANT WARMING TREND
WILL RESULT. SOME CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO NEVADA FROM THE NORTH
FROM TIME TO TIME, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. FANTASTIC
WEATHER TO GET TO GRANDMA`S HOUSE FOR THANKSGIVING.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OVER THE LKN CWFA THERE
TENDS TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN
THERE IS SOME DOWNSTREAM MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THERE ARE NO
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL CONCERNS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SITUATED ABOUT 270 MILES OFFSHORE AND REMAIN STATIONARY
WHILE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTAL HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
50 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50.

THANKSGIVING DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN RESPONSE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL START TO DE-AMPLIFY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST ENOUGH TO CREATE A RESURGENCE OF RIDGING
OVER NEVADA AND ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE ON TAP. EARLY MORNING
SHOPPERS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN ON BLACK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KELY AND KTPH THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR KWMC AND
KEKO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/92/92





000
FXUS65 KLKN 230506
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
906 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NEVADA SUNDAY WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE GREAT
BASIN DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.UPDATE...CANCELLED ALL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. SOME WET
ROADWAYS WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME SLICK SPOTS. DESPITE
WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY, DRY AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT
FOG FORMATION. FINALLY, NW WINDS ARE STRONG AT THE NW WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS OF TONOPAH AND WEST WENDOVER, GUSTING 30-40 MPH. WINDS
WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEVADA.  TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 251 PM /

SYNOPSIS...STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT LAYING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA. BY
THE TIME SNOW LEVELS REACH VALLEY FLOORS MOISTURE WILL BE MOSTLY
GONE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN
1 INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS SUCH
AS SPRING CREEK. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
DESPITE THE MARGINAL AMOUNT OF SNOW AS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE WATER ON ROADWAYS TO TURN TO ICE MAKING
FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING BY LATE
EVENING WILL LET WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS EXPIRE AT 10 PM. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS CENTRAL NV THIS EVENING
BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2
INCH. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NV FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR DRY
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST NV FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
FOR THANKSGIVING WEEK WITH BROAD 500MB RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AN ANOMALOUS 588DAM 500MB
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPS PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREAT TRAVEL WEATHER ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FOR THANKSGIVING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. THERE IS SOME
ENERGY OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A LOT OF
SPREAD ON HOW THIS ENERGY WILL BE HANDLED. ADDED SOME SHADOW POPS
AND INCREASED CLOUDS BY SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS ENERGY
PANS OUT FOR THE HOLIDAY RETURN TRAVEL.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NORTHER NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN TO MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP MVR CIGS AT KEKO THROUGH 02Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SNOW TO MIX IN AT KWMC THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 04Z AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA. TEMPO MVR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELY THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE THERE QUICKLY BY LATE
EVENING AS PRECIP PULLS OUT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 230506
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
906 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NEVADA SUNDAY WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE GREAT
BASIN DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.UPDATE...CANCELLED ALL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. SOME WET
ROADWAYS WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME SLICK SPOTS. DESPITE
WIDESPREAD RAINS TODAY, DRY AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT
FOG FORMATION. FINALLY, NW WINDS ARE STRONG AT THE NW WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS OF TONOPAH AND WEST WENDOVER, GUSTING 30-40 MPH. WINDS
WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEVADA.  TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 251 PM /

SYNOPSIS...STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT LAYING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA. BY
THE TIME SNOW LEVELS REACH VALLEY FLOORS MOISTURE WILL BE MOSTLY
GONE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN
1 INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS SUCH
AS SPRING CREEK. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
DESPITE THE MARGINAL AMOUNT OF SNOW AS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE WATER ON ROADWAYS TO TURN TO ICE MAKING
FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING BY LATE
EVENING WILL LET WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS EXPIRE AT 10 PM. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS CENTRAL NV THIS EVENING
BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2
INCH. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NV FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR DRY
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST NV FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
FOR THANKSGIVING WEEK WITH BROAD 500MB RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AN ANOMALOUS 588DAM 500MB
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPS PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREAT TRAVEL WEATHER ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FOR THANKSGIVING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. THERE IS SOME
ENERGY OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A LOT OF
SPREAD ON HOW THIS ENERGY WILL BE HANDLED. ADDED SOME SHADOW POPS
AND INCREASED CLOUDS BY SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS ENERGY
PANS OUT FOR THE HOLIDAY RETURN TRAVEL.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NORTHER NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN TO MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP MVR CIGS AT KEKO THROUGH 02Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SNOW TO MIX IN AT KWMC THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 04Z AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA. TEMPO MVR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELY THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE THERE QUICKLY BY LATE
EVENING AS PRECIP PULLS OUT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 222251
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
251 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT LAYING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA. BY
THE TIME SNOW LEVELS REACH VALLEY FLOORS MOISTURE WILL BE MOSTLY
GONE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN
1 INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS SUCH
AS SPRING CREEK. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
DESPITE THE MARGINAL AMOUNT OF SNOW AS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE WATER ON ROADWAYS TO TURN TO ICE MAKING
FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING BY LATE
EVENING WILL LET WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS EXPIRE AT 10 PM. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS CENTRAL NV THIS EVENING
BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2
INCH. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NV FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR DRY
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST NV FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
FOR THANKSGIVING WEEK WITH BROAD 500MB RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AN ANOMALOUS 588DAM 500MB
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPS PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREAT TRAVEL WEATHER ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FOR THANKSGIVING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. THERE IS SOME
ENERGY OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A LOT OF
SPREAD ON HOW THIS ENERGY WILL BE HANDLED. ADDED SOME SHADOW POPS
AND INCREASED CLOUDS BY SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS ENERGY
PANS OUT FOR THE HOLIDAY RETURN TRAVEL.
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NORTHER NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN TO MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP MVR CIGS AT KEKO THROUGH 02Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SNOW TO MIX IN AT KWMC THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 04Z AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA. TEMPO MVR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELY THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE THERE QUICKLY BY LATE
EVENING AS PRECIP PULLS OUT.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

91/95/95




000
FXUS65 KLKN 222251
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
251 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT LAYING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA. BY
THE TIME SNOW LEVELS REACH VALLEY FLOORS MOISTURE WILL BE MOSTLY
GONE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN
1 INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS SUCH
AS SPRING CREEK. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
DESPITE THE MARGINAL AMOUNT OF SNOW AS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE WATER ON ROADWAYS TO TURN TO ICE MAKING
FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING BY LATE
EVENING WILL LET WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS EXPIRE AT 10 PM. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS CENTRAL NV THIS EVENING
BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2
INCH. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NV FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR DRY
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST NV FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
FOR THANKSGIVING WEEK WITH BROAD 500MB RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AN ANOMALOUS 588DAM 500MB
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPS PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREAT TRAVEL WEATHER ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FOR THANKSGIVING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. THERE IS SOME
ENERGY OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A LOT OF
SPREAD ON HOW THIS ENERGY WILL BE HANDLED. ADDED SOME SHADOW POPS
AND INCREASED CLOUDS BY SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS ENERGY
PANS OUT FOR THE HOLIDAY RETURN TRAVEL.
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NORTHER NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN TO MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP MVR CIGS AT KEKO THROUGH 02Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SNOW TO MIX IN AT KWMC THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 04Z AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA. TEMPO MVR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELY THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE THERE QUICKLY BY LATE
EVENING AS PRECIP PULLS OUT.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

91/95/95





000
FXUS65 KLKN 221904
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1104 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SNOW...AND STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY. MUCH COLDER SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
&&

.UPDATE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPING OFF ACROSS NORTHEAST NV
IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS/FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 200 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY. MUCH COLDER SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

INFRARED SATELLITE REVEALS A VERY WELL-DEVELOPED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
FROM NW NEVADA EXTENDING HORIZONTALLY WELL OUT INTO THE PACIFIC,
LOADED WTIH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND JET STREAM ENERGY. THIS WIND
AND MOISTURE WILL AIM AT NE NEVADA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY.

ATMOSPHERE IN THE PROCESS OF MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING, WITH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. LIGHT TO MODERATE VALLEY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF NEVADA THROUGH 10 AM. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, AND BE INCREASINGLY WIND-DRIVEN AS JET ENERGY ARRIVES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL HOLD NEAR 7000 FEET FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING, IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVER NEVADA BY 10 AM, WITH NAM/GFS
IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING NEAR HURRICANE- FORCE WINDS (60-65 KTS,
70-75 MPH) AT 700 MB, ABOUT 4400 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. MUCH OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL NOT AFFECT THE VALLEYS, BUT GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH STRONG
GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD
OF AND NEAR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO RACE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
INSTANTLY CHANGING ALL RAIN TO SNOW. AM CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH
FREEZE POTENTIAL ON ROADWAYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AROUND SUNSET)
WHEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FREEZE WET ROADWAYS FROM THIS
MORNING`S RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF ICE FORMATION ON ROADWAYS, SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES
WARRANTS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE NEVADA. THIS, DESPITE
SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL FALL SHORT OF TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR MOST VALLEYS, AND IMPACTS THAT WILL BE LESS WITH REDUCED WEEKEND
TRAVEL AND NO SCHOOL.

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR SE ELKO COUNTY AND
NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE 00Z NAM PROGS
LIFTED INDEX TO -2 AND CAPE UP TO 150 J/KG ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. ANY CONVECTION WILL GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN/SNOWFALL
RATES LOCALLY.

FIREHOSE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS AIMED AT ELKO COUNTY, AND THAT IS
WHERE ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WORST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DECREASE WITH SW EXTENT
ACROSS THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR ONE INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ENHANCED
UPSLOPE AMOUNTS ON NW-FACING SLOPES (EG, AUSTIN). ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 1-5
INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS, WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT ELKO
PROPER AND NEAR WEST WENDOVER. THESE LOCATIONS DO POORLY IN NW
FLOW EVENTS. IN CONTRAST, NW FLOW UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONG FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (NW WINDS
AT 280 TO 290 DEGREES), SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF LAMOILLE AND
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE RUBY MOUNTAINS REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
WITHOUT A DOUBT, THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE
WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS EVENT, WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASED SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE RUBIES TO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE. AS STATED, WINDS
WILL GUST 60-70 MPH WHILE THIS SNOW IS FALLING. HUNTERS...IT IS
EMPHASIZED THAT DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY. TRAVEL WILL
BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE. ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS OF
4-10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON THE INDEPENDENCE AND JARBIDGE
MOUNTAINS, WITH 1-4 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS, SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD. AGAIN, WHILE AMOUNTS WILL FALL SHORT OF
TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS, STRONG NW WINDS
WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ON
MOUNTAIN CITY HIGHWAY AND U.S. HIGHWAY 93 THROUGH TONIGHT.

INHERITED WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE WELL-
CONSTRUCTED AND WILL NOT CHANGE. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO
INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE RUBIES, INCREASE THE RANGE OF
EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR ELKO COUNTY VALLEYS TO 1-5 INCHES
(ELEVATION/UPSLOPE DEPENDENT), AND INCREASE WIND/WIND GUSTS GRIDS
TODAY. ALSO INCREASED POP GRIDS TO 100% FOR MUCH OF ELKO COUNTY
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END IN THE MORNING.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK, MUCH OF ELKO
COUNTY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ECMWF/NAM IN AGREEMENT PLACING A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR BATTLE
MOUNTAIN MONDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AS A RESULT, WITH LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL DOWN INTO THE TEENS. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY FALLING TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND DRY FOR ALL ZONES. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN BY DEVELOPING
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND SNOW COVER.

TURNER

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE LKN CWFA THERE
TENDS TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DOWNSTREAM
SQUABBLING WITH MODEL AGREEMENT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE CENTERED WELL
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...THERE MAY BE SOME DIRT SKIRTING NORTHEAST
NEVADA. THIS DIRTY FLOW OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PACIFIC RIDGE MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY. WITH A COOL POCKET OF AIR LINGERING...MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL MOVE FROM ABOUT 380 MILES OFFSHORE TO RE-
POSITION NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA STATE LINE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

THANKSGIVING DAY. THE RIDGE WILL START DE-AMPLIFYING BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. EARLY
MORNING SHOPPERS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON BLACK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THIS MORNING TO BEGIN AFFECTING KWMC AND KEKO...FOLLOWED BY KELY IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT KEKO...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. AT KWMC AND KEKO...STRONG
WEST WINDS OF 20-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
BOTH KELY AND KTPH WILL ALSO SEE WINDS INCREASING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS
AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO
COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

91/92




000
FXUS65 KLKN 221904
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1104 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SNOW...AND STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY. MUCH COLDER SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
&&

.UPDATE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPING OFF ACROSS NORTHEAST NV
IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS/FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 200 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY. MUCH COLDER SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

INFRARED SATELLITE REVEALS A VERY WELL-DEVELOPED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
FROM NW NEVADA EXTENDING HORIZONTALLY WELL OUT INTO THE PACIFIC,
LOADED WTIH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND JET STREAM ENERGY. THIS WIND
AND MOISTURE WILL AIM AT NE NEVADA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY.

ATMOSPHERE IN THE PROCESS OF MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING, WITH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. LIGHT TO MODERATE VALLEY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF NEVADA THROUGH 10 AM. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, AND BE INCREASINGLY WIND-DRIVEN AS JET ENERGY ARRIVES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL HOLD NEAR 7000 FEET FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING, IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVER NEVADA BY 10 AM, WITH NAM/GFS
IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING NEAR HURRICANE- FORCE WINDS (60-65 KTS,
70-75 MPH) AT 700 MB, ABOUT 4400 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. MUCH OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL NOT AFFECT THE VALLEYS, BUT GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH STRONG
GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD
OF AND NEAR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO RACE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
INSTANTLY CHANGING ALL RAIN TO SNOW. AM CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH
FREEZE POTENTIAL ON ROADWAYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AROUND SUNSET)
WHEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FREEZE WET ROADWAYS FROM THIS
MORNING`S RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF ICE FORMATION ON ROADWAYS, SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES
WARRANTS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE NEVADA. THIS, DESPITE
SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL FALL SHORT OF TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR MOST VALLEYS, AND IMPACTS THAT WILL BE LESS WITH REDUCED WEEKEND
TRAVEL AND NO SCHOOL.

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR SE ELKO COUNTY AND
NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE 00Z NAM PROGS
LIFTED INDEX TO -2 AND CAPE UP TO 150 J/KG ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. ANY CONVECTION WILL GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN/SNOWFALL
RATES LOCALLY.

FIREHOSE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS AIMED AT ELKO COUNTY, AND THAT IS
WHERE ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WORST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DECREASE WITH SW EXTENT
ACROSS THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR ONE INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ENHANCED
UPSLOPE AMOUNTS ON NW-FACING SLOPES (EG, AUSTIN). ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 1-5
INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS, WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT ELKO
PROPER AND NEAR WEST WENDOVER. THESE LOCATIONS DO POORLY IN NW
FLOW EVENTS. IN CONTRAST, NW FLOW UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONG FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (NW WINDS
AT 280 TO 290 DEGREES), SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF LAMOILLE AND
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE RUBY MOUNTAINS REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
WITHOUT A DOUBT, THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE
WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS EVENT, WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASED SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE RUBIES TO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE. AS STATED, WINDS
WILL GUST 60-70 MPH WHILE THIS SNOW IS FALLING. HUNTERS...IT IS
EMPHASIZED THAT DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY. TRAVEL WILL
BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE. ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS OF
4-10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON THE INDEPENDENCE AND JARBIDGE
MOUNTAINS, WITH 1-4 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS, SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD. AGAIN, WHILE AMOUNTS WILL FALL SHORT OF
TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS, STRONG NW WINDS
WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ON
MOUNTAIN CITY HIGHWAY AND U.S. HIGHWAY 93 THROUGH TONIGHT.

INHERITED WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE WELL-
CONSTRUCTED AND WILL NOT CHANGE. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO
INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE RUBIES, INCREASE THE RANGE OF
EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR ELKO COUNTY VALLEYS TO 1-5 INCHES
(ELEVATION/UPSLOPE DEPENDENT), AND INCREASE WIND/WIND GUSTS GRIDS
TODAY. ALSO INCREASED POP GRIDS TO 100% FOR MUCH OF ELKO COUNTY
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END IN THE MORNING.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK, MUCH OF ELKO
COUNTY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ECMWF/NAM IN AGREEMENT PLACING A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR BATTLE
MOUNTAIN MONDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AS A RESULT, WITH LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL DOWN INTO THE TEENS. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY FALLING TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND DRY FOR ALL ZONES. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN BY DEVELOPING
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND SNOW COVER.

TURNER

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE LKN CWFA THERE
TENDS TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DOWNSTREAM
SQUABBLING WITH MODEL AGREEMENT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE CENTERED WELL
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...THERE MAY BE SOME DIRT SKIRTING NORTHEAST
NEVADA. THIS DIRTY FLOW OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PACIFIC RIDGE MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY. WITH A COOL POCKET OF AIR LINGERING...MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL MOVE FROM ABOUT 380 MILES OFFSHORE TO RE-
POSITION NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA STATE LINE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

THANKSGIVING DAY. THE RIDGE WILL START DE-AMPLIFYING BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. EARLY
MORNING SHOPPERS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON BLACK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THIS MORNING TO BEGIN AFFECTING KWMC AND KEKO...FOLLOWED BY KELY IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT KEKO...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. AT KWMC AND KEKO...STRONG
WEST WINDS OF 20-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
BOTH KELY AND KTPH WILL ALSO SEE WINDS INCREASING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS
AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO
COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

91/92





000
FXUS65 KLKN 221000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY. MUCH COLDER SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

INFRARED SATELLITE REVEALS A VERY WELL-DEVELOPED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
FROM NW NEVADA EXTENDING HORIZONTALLY WELL OUT INTO THE PACIFIC,
LOADED WTIH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND JET STREAM ENERGY. THIS WIND
AND MOISTURE WILL AIM AT NE NEVADA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY.

ATMOSPHERE IN THE PROCESS OF MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING, WITH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. LIGHT TO MODERATE VALLEY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF NEVADA THROUGH 10 AM. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, AND BE INCREASINGLY WIND-DRIVEN AS JET ENERGY ARRIVES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL HOLD NEAR 7000 FEET FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING, IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVER NEVADA BY 10 AM, WITH NAM/GFS
IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING NEAR HURRICANE- FORCE WINDS (60-65 KTS,
70-75 MPH) AT 700 MB, ABOUT 4400 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. MUCH OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL NOT AFFECT THE VALLEYS, BUT GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH STRONG
GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD
OF AND NEAR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO RACE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
INSTANTLY CHANGING ALL RAIN TO SNOW. AM CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH
FREEZE POTENTIAL ON ROADWAYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AROUND SUNSET)
WHEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FREEZE WET ROADWAYS FROM THIS
MORNING`S RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF ICE FORMATION ON ROADWAYS, SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES
WARRANTS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE NEVADA. THIS, DESPITE
SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL FALL SHORT OF TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR MOST VALLEYS, AND IMPACTS THAT WILL BE LESS WITH REDUCED WEEKEND
TRAVEL AND NO SCHOOL.

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR SE ELKO COUNTY AND
NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE 00Z NAM PROGS
LIFTED INDEX TO -2 AND CAPE UP TO 150 J/KG ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. ANY CONVECTION WILL GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN/SNOWFALL
RATES LOCALLY.

FIREHOSE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS AIMED AT ELKO COUNTY, AND THAT IS
WHERE ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WORST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DECREASE WITH SW EXTENT
ACROSS THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR ONE INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ENHANCED
UPSLOPE AMOUNTS ON NW-FACING SLOPES (EG, AUSTIN). ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 1-5
INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS, WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT ELKO
PROPER AND NEAR WEST WENDOVER. THESE LOCATIONS DO POORLY IN NW
FLOW EVENTS. IN CONTRAST, NW FLOW UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONG FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (NW WINDS
AT 280 TO 290 DEGREES), SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF LAMOILLE AND
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE RUBY MOUNTAINS REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
WITHOUT A DOUBT, THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE
WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS EVENT, WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASED SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE RUBIES TO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE. AS STATED, WINDS
WILL GUST 60-70 MPH WHILE THIS SNOW IS FALLING. HUNTERS...IT IS
EMPHASIZED THAT DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY. TRAVEL WILL
BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE. ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS OF
4-10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON THE INDEPENDENCE AND JARBIDGE
MOUNTAINS, WITH 1-4 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS, SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD. AGAIN, WHILE AMOUNTS WILL FALL SHORT OF
TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS, STRONG NW WINDS
WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ON
MOUNTAIN CITY HIGHWAY AND U.S. HIGHWAY 93 THROUGH TONIGHT.

INHERITED WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE WELL-
CONSTRUCTED AND WILL NOT CHANGE. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO
INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE RUBIES, INCREASE THE RANGE OF
EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR ELKO COUNTY VALLEYS TO 1-5 INCHES
(ELEVATION/UPSLOPE DEPENDENT), AND INCREASE WIND/WIND GUSTS GRIDS
TODAY. ALSO INCREASED POP GRIDS TO 100% FOR MUCH OF ELKO COUNTY
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END IN THE MORNING.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK, MUCH OF ELKO
COUNTY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ECMWF/NAM IN AGREEMENT PLACING A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR BATTLE
MOUNTAIN MONDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AS A RESULT, WITH LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL DOWN INTO THE TEENS. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY FALLING TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND DRY FOR ALL ZONES. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN BY DEVELOPING
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND SNOW COVER.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE LKN CWFA THERE
TENDS TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DOWNSTREAM
SQUABBLING WITH MODEL AGREEMENT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE CENTERED WELL
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...THERE MAY BE SOME DIRT SKIRTING NORTHEAST
NEVADA. THIS DIRTY FLOW OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PACIFIC RIDGE MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY. WITH A COOL POCKET OF AIR LINGERING...MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL MOVE FROM ABOUT 380 MILES OFFSHORE TO RE-
POSITION NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA STATE LINE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

THANKSGIVING DAY. THE RIDGE WILL START DE-AMPLIFYING BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. EARLY
MORNING SHOPPERS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON BLACK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THIS MORNING TO BEGIN AFFECTING KWMC AND KEKO...FOLLOWED BY KELY IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT KEKO...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. AT KWMC AND KEKO...STRONG
WEST WINDS OF 20-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
BOTH KELY AND KTPH WILL ALSO SEE WINDS INCREASING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/92/92




000
FXUS65 KLKN 221000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY. MUCH COLDER SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

INFRARED SATELLITE REVEALS A VERY WELL-DEVELOPED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
FROM NW NEVADA EXTENDING HORIZONTALLY WELL OUT INTO THE PACIFIC,
LOADED WTIH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND JET STREAM ENERGY. THIS WIND
AND MOISTURE WILL AIM AT NE NEVADA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY.

ATMOSPHERE IN THE PROCESS OF MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING, WITH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. LIGHT TO MODERATE VALLEY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF NEVADA THROUGH 10 AM. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, AND BE INCREASINGLY WIND-DRIVEN AS JET ENERGY ARRIVES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL HOLD NEAR 7000 FEET FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING, IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVER NEVADA BY 10 AM, WITH NAM/GFS
IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING NEAR HURRICANE- FORCE WINDS (60-65 KTS,
70-75 MPH) AT 700 MB, ABOUT 4400 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. MUCH OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL NOT AFFECT THE VALLEYS, BUT GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH STRONG
GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD
OF AND NEAR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO RACE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
INSTANTLY CHANGING ALL RAIN TO SNOW. AM CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH
FREEZE POTENTIAL ON ROADWAYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AROUND SUNSET)
WHEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FREEZE WET ROADWAYS FROM THIS
MORNING`S RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF ICE FORMATION ON ROADWAYS, SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES
WARRANTS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE NEVADA. THIS, DESPITE
SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL FALL SHORT OF TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR MOST VALLEYS, AND IMPACTS THAT WILL BE LESS WITH REDUCED WEEKEND
TRAVEL AND NO SCHOOL.

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR SE ELKO COUNTY AND
NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE 00Z NAM PROGS
LIFTED INDEX TO -2 AND CAPE UP TO 150 J/KG ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. ANY CONVECTION WILL GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN/SNOWFALL
RATES LOCALLY.

FIREHOSE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS AIMED AT ELKO COUNTY, AND THAT IS
WHERE ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WORST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DECREASE WITH SW EXTENT
ACROSS THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR ONE INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ENHANCED
UPSLOPE AMOUNTS ON NW-FACING SLOPES (EG, AUSTIN). ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 1-5
INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS, WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT ELKO
PROPER AND NEAR WEST WENDOVER. THESE LOCATIONS DO POORLY IN NW
FLOW EVENTS. IN CONTRAST, NW FLOW UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONG FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (NW WINDS
AT 280 TO 290 DEGREES), SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF LAMOILLE AND
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE RUBY MOUNTAINS REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
WITHOUT A DOUBT, THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE
WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS EVENT, WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASED SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE RUBIES TO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE. AS STATED, WINDS
WILL GUST 60-70 MPH WHILE THIS SNOW IS FALLING. HUNTERS...IT IS
EMPHASIZED THAT DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY. TRAVEL WILL
BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE. ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS OF
4-10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON THE INDEPENDENCE AND JARBIDGE
MOUNTAINS, WITH 1-4 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS, SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD. AGAIN, WHILE AMOUNTS WILL FALL SHORT OF
TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS, STRONG NW WINDS
WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ON
MOUNTAIN CITY HIGHWAY AND U.S. HIGHWAY 93 THROUGH TONIGHT.

INHERITED WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE WELL-
CONSTRUCTED AND WILL NOT CHANGE. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO
INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE RUBIES, INCREASE THE RANGE OF
EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR ELKO COUNTY VALLEYS TO 1-5 INCHES
(ELEVATION/UPSLOPE DEPENDENT), AND INCREASE WIND/WIND GUSTS GRIDS
TODAY. ALSO INCREASED POP GRIDS TO 100% FOR MUCH OF ELKO COUNTY
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END IN THE MORNING.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK, MUCH OF ELKO
COUNTY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ECMWF/NAM IN AGREEMENT PLACING A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR BATTLE
MOUNTAIN MONDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AS A RESULT, WITH LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL DOWN INTO THE TEENS. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY FALLING TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND DRY FOR ALL ZONES. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN BY DEVELOPING
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND SNOW COVER.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE LKN CWFA THERE
TENDS TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DOWNSTREAM
SQUABBLING WITH MODEL AGREEMENT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE CENTERED WELL
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...THERE MAY BE SOME DIRT SKIRTING NORTHEAST
NEVADA. THIS DIRTY FLOW OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PACIFIC RIDGE MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY. WITH A COOL POCKET OF AIR LINGERING...MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL MOVE FROM ABOUT 380 MILES OFFSHORE TO RE-
POSITION NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA STATE LINE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

THANKSGIVING DAY. THE RIDGE WILL START DE-AMPLIFYING BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. EARLY
MORNING SHOPPERS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON BLACK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THIS MORNING TO BEGIN AFFECTING KWMC AND KEKO...FOLLOWED BY KELY IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT KEKO...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. AT KWMC AND KEKO...STRONG
WEST WINDS OF 20-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
BOTH KELY AND KTPH WILL ALSO SEE WINDS INCREASING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/92/92




000
FXUS65 KLKN 221000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY. MUCH COLDER SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

INFRARED SATELLITE REVEALS A VERY WELL-DEVELOPED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
FROM NW NEVADA EXTENDING HORIZONTALLY WELL OUT INTO THE PACIFIC,
LOADED WTIH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND JET STREAM ENERGY. THIS WIND
AND MOISTURE WILL AIM AT NE NEVADA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY.

ATMOSPHERE IN THE PROCESS OF MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING, WITH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. LIGHT TO MODERATE VALLEY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF NEVADA THROUGH 10 AM. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, AND BE INCREASINGLY WIND-DRIVEN AS JET ENERGY ARRIVES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL HOLD NEAR 7000 FEET FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING, IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVER NEVADA BY 10 AM, WITH NAM/GFS
IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING NEAR HURRICANE- FORCE WINDS (60-65 KTS,
70-75 MPH) AT 700 MB, ABOUT 4400 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. MUCH OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL NOT AFFECT THE VALLEYS, BUT GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH STRONG
GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD
OF AND NEAR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO RACE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
INSTANTLY CHANGING ALL RAIN TO SNOW. AM CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH
FREEZE POTENTIAL ON ROADWAYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AROUND SUNSET)
WHEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FREEZE WET ROADWAYS FROM THIS
MORNING`S RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF ICE FORMATION ON ROADWAYS, SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES
WARRANTS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE NEVADA. THIS, DESPITE
SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL FALL SHORT OF TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR MOST VALLEYS, AND IMPACTS THAT WILL BE LESS WITH REDUCED WEEKEND
TRAVEL AND NO SCHOOL.

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR SE ELKO COUNTY AND
NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE 00Z NAM PROGS
LIFTED INDEX TO -2 AND CAPE UP TO 150 J/KG ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. ANY CONVECTION WILL GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN/SNOWFALL
RATES LOCALLY.

FIREHOSE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS AIMED AT ELKO COUNTY, AND THAT IS
WHERE ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WORST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DECREASE WITH SW EXTENT
ACROSS THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR ONE INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ENHANCED
UPSLOPE AMOUNTS ON NW-FACING SLOPES (EG, AUSTIN). ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 1-5
INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS, WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT ELKO
PROPER AND NEAR WEST WENDOVER. THESE LOCATIONS DO POORLY IN NW
FLOW EVENTS. IN CONTRAST, NW FLOW UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONG FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (NW WINDS
AT 280 TO 290 DEGREES), SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF LAMOILLE AND
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE RUBY MOUNTAINS REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
WITHOUT A DOUBT, THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE
WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS EVENT, WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASED SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE RUBIES TO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE. AS STATED, WINDS
WILL GUST 60-70 MPH WHILE THIS SNOW IS FALLING. HUNTERS...IT IS
EMPHASIZED THAT DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY. TRAVEL WILL
BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE. ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS OF
4-10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON THE INDEPENDENCE AND JARBIDGE
MOUNTAINS, WITH 1-4 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS, SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD. AGAIN, WHILE AMOUNTS WILL FALL SHORT OF
TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS, STRONG NW WINDS
WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ON
MOUNTAIN CITY HIGHWAY AND U.S. HIGHWAY 93 THROUGH TONIGHT.

INHERITED WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE WELL-
CONSTRUCTED AND WILL NOT CHANGE. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO
INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE RUBIES, INCREASE THE RANGE OF
EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR ELKO COUNTY VALLEYS TO 1-5 INCHES
(ELEVATION/UPSLOPE DEPENDENT), AND INCREASE WIND/WIND GUSTS GRIDS
TODAY. ALSO INCREASED POP GRIDS TO 100% FOR MUCH OF ELKO COUNTY
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END IN THE MORNING.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK, MUCH OF ELKO
COUNTY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ECMWF/NAM IN AGREEMENT PLACING A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR BATTLE
MOUNTAIN MONDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AS A RESULT, WITH LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL DOWN INTO THE TEENS. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY FALLING TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND DRY FOR ALL ZONES. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN BY DEVELOPING
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND SNOW COVER.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE LKN CWFA THERE
TENDS TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DOWNSTREAM
SQUABBLING WITH MODEL AGREEMENT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE CENTERED WELL
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...THERE MAY BE SOME DIRT SKIRTING NORTHEAST
NEVADA. THIS DIRTY FLOW OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PACIFIC RIDGE MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY. WITH A COOL POCKET OF AIR LINGERING...MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL MOVE FROM ABOUT 380 MILES OFFSHORE TO RE-
POSITION NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA STATE LINE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

THANKSGIVING DAY. THE RIDGE WILL START DE-AMPLIFYING BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. EARLY
MORNING SHOPPERS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON BLACK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THIS MORNING TO BEGIN AFFECTING KWMC AND KEKO...FOLLOWED BY KELY IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT KEKO...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. AT KWMC AND KEKO...STRONG
WEST WINDS OF 20-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
BOTH KELY AND KTPH WILL ALSO SEE WINDS INCREASING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/92/92





000
FXUS65 KLKN 221000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY. MUCH COLDER SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

INFRARED SATELLITE REVEALS A VERY WELL-DEVELOPED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
FROM NW NEVADA EXTENDING HORIZONTALLY WELL OUT INTO THE PACIFIC,
LOADED WTIH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND JET STREAM ENERGY. THIS WIND
AND MOISTURE WILL AIM AT NE NEVADA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY.

ATMOSPHERE IN THE PROCESS OF MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING, WITH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. LIGHT TO MODERATE VALLEY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF NEVADA THROUGH 10 AM. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, AND BE INCREASINGLY WIND-DRIVEN AS JET ENERGY ARRIVES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL HOLD NEAR 7000 FEET FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING, IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVER NEVADA BY 10 AM, WITH NAM/GFS
IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING NEAR HURRICANE- FORCE WINDS (60-65 KTS,
70-75 MPH) AT 700 MB, ABOUT 4400 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. MUCH OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL NOT AFFECT THE VALLEYS, BUT GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH STRONG
GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD
OF AND NEAR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO RACE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
INSTANTLY CHANGING ALL RAIN TO SNOW. AM CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH
FREEZE POTENTIAL ON ROADWAYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AROUND SUNSET)
WHEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FREEZE WET ROADWAYS FROM THIS
MORNING`S RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF ICE FORMATION ON ROADWAYS, SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES
WARRANTS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE NEVADA. THIS, DESPITE
SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL FALL SHORT OF TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR MOST VALLEYS, AND IMPACTS THAT WILL BE LESS WITH REDUCED WEEKEND
TRAVEL AND NO SCHOOL.

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR SE ELKO COUNTY AND
NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE 00Z NAM PROGS
LIFTED INDEX TO -2 AND CAPE UP TO 150 J/KG ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. ANY CONVECTION WILL GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN/SNOWFALL
RATES LOCALLY.

FIREHOSE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS AIMED AT ELKO COUNTY, AND THAT IS
WHERE ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WORST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DECREASE WITH SW EXTENT
ACROSS THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR ONE INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT LOCALLY ENHANCED
UPSLOPE AMOUNTS ON NW-FACING SLOPES (EG, AUSTIN). ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 1-5
INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS, WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT ELKO
PROPER AND NEAR WEST WENDOVER. THESE LOCATIONS DO POORLY IN NW
FLOW EVENTS. IN CONTRAST, NW FLOW UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONG FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (NW WINDS
AT 280 TO 290 DEGREES), SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF LAMOILLE AND
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE RUBY MOUNTAINS REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
WITHOUT A DOUBT, THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE
WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS EVENT, WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASED SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE RUBIES TO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE. AS STATED, WINDS
WILL GUST 60-70 MPH WHILE THIS SNOW IS FALLING. HUNTERS...IT IS
EMPHASIZED THAT DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY. TRAVEL WILL
BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE. ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS OF
4-10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON THE INDEPENDENCE AND JARBIDGE
MOUNTAINS, WITH 1-4 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS, SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD. AGAIN, WHILE AMOUNTS WILL FALL SHORT OF
TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS, STRONG NW WINDS
WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ON
MOUNTAIN CITY HIGHWAY AND U.S. HIGHWAY 93 THROUGH TONIGHT.

INHERITED WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE WELL-
CONSTRUCTED AND WILL NOT CHANGE. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO
INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE RUBIES, INCREASE THE RANGE OF
EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR ELKO COUNTY VALLEYS TO 1-5 INCHES
(ELEVATION/UPSLOPE DEPENDENT), AND INCREASE WIND/WIND GUSTS GRIDS
TODAY. ALSO INCREASED POP GRIDS TO 100% FOR MUCH OF ELKO COUNTY
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END IN THE MORNING.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK, MUCH OF ELKO
COUNTY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ECMWF/NAM IN AGREEMENT PLACING A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR BATTLE
MOUNTAIN MONDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AS A RESULT, WITH LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL DOWN INTO THE TEENS. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY FALLING TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND DRY FOR ALL ZONES. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN BY DEVELOPING
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND SNOW COVER.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE LKN CWFA THERE
TENDS TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DOWNSTREAM
SQUABBLING WITH MODEL AGREEMENT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE CENTERED WELL
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...THERE MAY BE SOME DIRT SKIRTING NORTHEAST
NEVADA. THIS DIRTY FLOW OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PACIFIC RIDGE MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY. WITH A COOL POCKET OF AIR LINGERING...MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL MOVE FROM ABOUT 380 MILES OFFSHORE TO RE-
POSITION NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA STATE LINE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

THANKSGIVING DAY. THE RIDGE WILL START DE-AMPLIFYING BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. EARLY
MORNING SHOPPERS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON BLACK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THIS MORNING TO BEGIN AFFECTING KWMC AND KEKO...FOLLOWED BY KELY IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT KEKO...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. AT KWMC AND KEKO...STRONG
WEST WINDS OF 20-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
BOTH KELY AND KTPH WILL ALSO SEE WINDS INCREASING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/92/92





000
FXUS65 KLKN 212220
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING
RAIN, SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A POTENT STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THEN INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE WARM AIR AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER HIGH, GENERALLY ABOVE
8000 FEET. VALLEY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
THEN SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS
OF NORTHEAST NEVADA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA, STARTING LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY, AND NOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY AND NORTHERN
LANDER/NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY. FOR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 1 INCH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY
WITH A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

GREAT TRAVEL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA FOR THANKSGIVING.  GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN ALL MODELS AND CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS MAKES
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH.

THE PERIOD COMMENCES WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO
COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE CHILLY ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEARBY.  WITH A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.  DUE TO THIS
INVERSION...HIGH TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH NUMBERS DEPICTED IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS. WE`LL KNOW MORE COME MONDAY MORNING.  FOR MOST AREAS
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBS TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME AREAS IN NYE COUNTY HITTING THE 60 DEGREE MARK.  DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH BUT REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS USED...THE
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL. I WENT AHEAD AND
NUDGED POPS UPWARD ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AS THE FILLING TROF PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME...MOST AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...AND A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR
BLACK FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN AND WIND WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
00-12Z SAT, IMPACTING KWMC/KEKO WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 3-
4K...POSSIBLY LOWER. DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS 12-18Z SAT AT
KWMC/KEKO WITH -RA AND MVFR CIGS. KELY WILL SEE ALSO SEE LOWERING
CIGS TO 3KT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SOME SHOWERS. BEST FLYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KTPH WHERE CIGS REMAIN VFR.

IT NOWS APPEARS THAT PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN RAIN AT KWMC AND KEKO
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.  AT KEKO...EXPECT RAIN TO BRIEFLY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR OR AFTER OOZ MONDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. AT KWMC... STRONG WEST WINDS OF 20-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. BOTH KELY AND KTPH WILL ALSO SEE WINDS
INCREASING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTH
CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

91/85/85




000
FXUS65 KLKN 212220
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING
RAIN, SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A POTENT STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THEN INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE WARM AIR AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER HIGH, GENERALLY ABOVE
8000 FEET. VALLEY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
THEN SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS
OF NORTHEAST NEVADA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA, STARTING LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY, AND NOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY AND NORTHERN
LANDER/NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY. FOR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 1 INCH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY
WITH A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

GREAT TRAVEL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA FOR THANKSGIVING.  GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN ALL MODELS AND CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS MAKES
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH.

THE PERIOD COMMENCES WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO
COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE CHILLY ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEARBY.  WITH A FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.  DUE TO THIS
INVERSION...HIGH TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH NUMBERS DEPICTED IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS. WE`LL KNOW MORE COME MONDAY MORNING.  FOR MOST AREAS
HIGH TEMPS CLIMBS TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME AREAS IN NYE COUNTY HITTING THE 60 DEGREE MARK.  DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH BUT REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS USED...THE
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL. I WENT AHEAD AND
NUDGED POPS UPWARD ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AS THE FILLING TROF PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME...MOST AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...AND A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR
BLACK FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN AND WIND WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
00-12Z SAT, IMPACTING KWMC/KEKO WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 3-
4K...POSSIBLY LOWER. DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS 12-18Z SAT AT
KWMC/KEKO WITH -RA AND MVFR CIGS. KELY WILL SEE ALSO SEE LOWERING
CIGS TO 3KT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SOME SHOWERS. BEST FLYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KTPH WHERE CIGS REMAIN VFR.

IT NOWS APPEARS THAT PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN RAIN AT KWMC AND KEKO
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.  AT KEKO...EXPECT RAIN TO BRIEFLY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR OR AFTER OOZ MONDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. AT KWMC... STRONG WEST WINDS OF 20-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. BOTH KELY AND KTPH WILL ALSO SEE WINDS
INCREASING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTH
CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

91/85/85





000
FXUS65 KLKN 211607
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
807 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING RAIN...PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
&&

.UPDATE...TOOK OUT ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NV THIS
MORNING AS SATELLITE PICS SHOW CLEAR SKIES. ALSO REDUCED CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING OVER ALL THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTH NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER WHERE CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.  91
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 156 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING RAIN...PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
CUTTING ALONG THE SIERRA-NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE THIS MORNING...A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. THIS
HAS EVACUATED MOST PRECIPITATION FROM THE LKN CWFA. HOWEVER THERE
IS SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS SPINNING UP FROM THE LOW CENTER AND
FLOWING NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THERE
ARE PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WITH THE
TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A CALM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES.

A VERY STRONG JET STREAM WILL ACCOMPANY THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW ARE
EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. AS THE
STORM MATERIALIZES...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CREATING LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW. AROUND ELKO AND SPRING CREEK...BELIEVE WARM AIR
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY OCCURRING LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST IN HUMBOLDT...LANDER...EUREKA AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES...MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FLASH FREEZE AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW...BUT DID NOT ADD ANY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WOULD LIKE TO GO ANOTHER SHIFT OR SO
BEFORE PULLING THAT TRIGGER GIVEN THAT THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE
LATER SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

GREAT TRAVEL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA FOR THANKSGIVING...

ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY,
WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUITE CHILLY, WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDING MOST VALLEYS IN THE 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD. 00Z ECMWF PLACES A 1039 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE RUBY MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING, SO SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMONPLACE WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CIRRUS.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FALLEN INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL DRAMATICALLY LOSING ITS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED STORM NEXT
WEEK. IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN SUCH A
RELIABLE MODEL AS THE ECMWF, MAKE SUCH A DRAMATIC CHANGE. GFS/ECMWF
NOW BOTH BUILD IN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AGGRESSIVELY TUESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. AS SUCH, DRAMATIC CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM
GRIDS. REDUCED OR ELIMINATED ALL POPS, REDUCED SKY COVER, DECREASED
WINDS, AND RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. SOME VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP
UNDER THE RIDGE WITH THE WEAK SOLAR ANGLE, BUT NOW EXPECT EXCELLENT
WEATHER IN THE GREAT BASIN FOR THIS THANKSGIVING. BT

AVIATION...VFR AND DRY THROUGH 00Z SAT. CLOUDS DECREASE THIS
MORNING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. AFTER 18Z, MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER AS NEXT STORM APPROACHES. -SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA 00-12Z SAT, IMPACTING KWMC/KEKO WITH CIGS LOWERING
TO 3-4K FT, HIGH END MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS
12-18Z SAT AT KWMC/KEKO WITH -RA AND MVFR CIGS. -SHRA MORE SCT
NEAR/NORTH OF KTPH/KELY.

EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA 18Z SAT-00Z
SUN, WITH IFR/LIFR MOST LIKELY AT KEKO. AT KWMC/KEKO, RA/SN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WEST WINDS SAT, 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 45
KTS. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

92/99/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 211607
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
807 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING RAIN...PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
&&

.UPDATE...TOOK OUT ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NV THIS
MORNING AS SATELLITE PICS SHOW CLEAR SKIES. ALSO REDUCED CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING OVER ALL THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTH NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER WHERE CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.  91
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 156 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING RAIN...PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
CUTTING ALONG THE SIERRA-NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE THIS MORNING...A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. THIS
HAS EVACUATED MOST PRECIPITATION FROM THE LKN CWFA. HOWEVER THERE
IS SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS SPINNING UP FROM THE LOW CENTER AND
FLOWING NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THERE
ARE PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WITH THE
TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A CALM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES.

A VERY STRONG JET STREAM WILL ACCOMPANY THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW ARE
EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. AS THE
STORM MATERIALIZES...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CREATING LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW. AROUND ELKO AND SPRING CREEK...BELIEVE WARM AIR
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY OCCURRING LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST IN HUMBOLDT...LANDER...EUREKA AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES...MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FLASH FREEZE AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW...BUT DID NOT ADD ANY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WOULD LIKE TO GO ANOTHER SHIFT OR SO
BEFORE PULLING THAT TRIGGER GIVEN THAT THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE
LATER SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

GREAT TRAVEL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA FOR THANKSGIVING...

ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY,
WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUITE CHILLY, WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDING MOST VALLEYS IN THE 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD. 00Z ECMWF PLACES A 1039 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE RUBY MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING, SO SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMONPLACE WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CIRRUS.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FALLEN INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL DRAMATICALLY LOSING ITS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED STORM NEXT
WEEK. IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN SUCH A
RELIABLE MODEL AS THE ECMWF, MAKE SUCH A DRAMATIC CHANGE. GFS/ECMWF
NOW BOTH BUILD IN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AGGRESSIVELY TUESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. AS SUCH, DRAMATIC CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM
GRIDS. REDUCED OR ELIMINATED ALL POPS, REDUCED SKY COVER, DECREASED
WINDS, AND RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. SOME VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP
UNDER THE RIDGE WITH THE WEAK SOLAR ANGLE, BUT NOW EXPECT EXCELLENT
WEATHER IN THE GREAT BASIN FOR THIS THANKSGIVING. BT

AVIATION...VFR AND DRY THROUGH 00Z SAT. CLOUDS DECREASE THIS
MORNING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. AFTER 18Z, MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER AS NEXT STORM APPROACHES. -SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA 00-12Z SAT, IMPACTING KWMC/KEKO WITH CIGS LOWERING
TO 3-4K FT, HIGH END MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS
12-18Z SAT AT KWMC/KEKO WITH -RA AND MVFR CIGS. -SHRA MORE SCT
NEAR/NORTH OF KTPH/KELY.

EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA 18Z SAT-00Z
SUN, WITH IFR/LIFR MOST LIKELY AT KEKO. AT KWMC/KEKO, RA/SN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WEST WINDS SAT, 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 45
KTS. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

92/99/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 210956
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
156 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING RAIN...PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
CUTTING ALONG THE SIERRA-NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE THIS MORNING...A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. THIS
HAS EVACUATED MOST PRECIPITATION FROM THE LKN CWFA. HOWEVER THERE
IS SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS SPINNING UP FROM THE LOW CENTER AND
FLOWING NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THERE
ARE PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WITH THE
TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A CALM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES.

A VERY STRONG JET STREAM WILL ACCOMPANY THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW ARE
EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. AS THE
STORM MATERIALIZES...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CREATING LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW. AROUND ELKO AND SPRING CREEK...BELIEVE WARM AIR
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY OCCURRING LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST IN HUMBOLDT...LANDER...EUREKA AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES...MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FLASH FREEZE AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW...BUT DID NOT ADD ANY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WOULD LIKE TO GO ANOTHER SHIFT OR SO
BEFORE PULLING THAT TRIGGER GIVEN THAT THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE
LATER SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

GREAT TRAVEL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA FOR THANKSGIVING...

ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY,
WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUITE CHILLY, WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDING MOST VALLEYS IN THE 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD. 00Z ECMWF PLACES A 1039 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE RUBY MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING, SO SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMONPLACE WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CIRRUS.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FALLEN INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL DRAMATICALLY LOSING ITS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED STORM NEXT
WEEK. IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN SUCH A
RELIABLE MODEL AS THE ECMWF, MAKE SUCH A DRAMATIC CHANGE. GFS/ECMWF
NOW BOTH BUILD IN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AGGRESSIVELY TUESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. AS SUCH, DRAMATIC CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM
GRIDS. REDUCED OR ELIMINATED ALL POPS, REDUCED SKY COVER, DECREASED
WINDS, AND RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. SOME VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP
UNDER THE RIDGE WITH THE WEAK SOLAR ANGLE, BUT NOW EXPECT EXCELLENT
WEATHER IN THE GREAT BASIN FOR THIS THANKSGIVING. BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AND DRY THROUGH 00Z SAT. CLOUDS DECREASE THIS
MORNING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. AFTER 18Z, MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER AS NEXT STORM APPROACHES. -SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA 00-12Z SAT, IMPACTING KWMC/KEKO WITH CIGS LOWERING
TO 3-4K FT, HIGH END MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS
12-18Z SAT AT KWMC/KEKO WITH -RA AND MVFR CIGS. -SHRA MORE SCT
NEAR/NORTH OF KTPH/KELY.

EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA 18Z SAT-00Z
SUN, WITH IFR/LIFR MOST LIKELY AT KEKO. AT KWMC/KEKO, RA/SN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WEST WINDS SAT, 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 45
KTS. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

92/99/99





000
FXUS65 KLKN 210956
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
156 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING RAIN...PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
CUTTING ALONG THE SIERRA-NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE THIS MORNING...A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. THIS
HAS EVACUATED MOST PRECIPITATION FROM THE LKN CWFA. HOWEVER THERE
IS SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS SPINNING UP FROM THE LOW CENTER AND
FLOWING NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THERE
ARE PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WITH THE
TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A CALM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES.

A VERY STRONG JET STREAM WILL ACCOMPANY THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW ARE
EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. AS THE
STORM MATERIALIZES...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CREATING LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW. AROUND ELKO AND SPRING CREEK...BELIEVE WARM AIR
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY OCCURRING LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST IN HUMBOLDT...LANDER...EUREKA AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES...MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FLASH FREEZE AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW...BUT DID NOT ADD ANY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WOULD LIKE TO GO ANOTHER SHIFT OR SO
BEFORE PULLING THAT TRIGGER GIVEN THAT THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE
LATER SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

GREAT TRAVEL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA FOR THANKSGIVING...

ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY,
WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUITE CHILLY, WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDING MOST VALLEYS IN THE 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD. 00Z ECMWF PLACES A 1039 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE RUBY MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING, SO SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMONPLACE WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CIRRUS.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FALLEN INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL DRAMATICALLY LOSING ITS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED STORM NEXT
WEEK. IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN SUCH A
RELIABLE MODEL AS THE ECMWF, MAKE SUCH A DRAMATIC CHANGE. GFS/ECMWF
NOW BOTH BUILD IN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AGGRESSIVELY TUESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. AS SUCH, DRAMATIC CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM
GRIDS. REDUCED OR ELIMINATED ALL POPS, REDUCED SKY COVER, DECREASED
WINDS, AND RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. SOME VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP
UNDER THE RIDGE WITH THE WEAK SOLAR ANGLE, BUT NOW EXPECT EXCELLENT
WEATHER IN THE GREAT BASIN FOR THIS THANKSGIVING. BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AND DRY THROUGH 00Z SAT. CLOUDS DECREASE THIS
MORNING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. AFTER 18Z, MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER AS NEXT STORM APPROACHES. -SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA 00-12Z SAT, IMPACTING KWMC/KEKO WITH CIGS LOWERING
TO 3-4K FT, HIGH END MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS
12-18Z SAT AT KWMC/KEKO WITH -RA AND MVFR CIGS. -SHRA MORE SCT
NEAR/NORTH OF KTPH/KELY.

EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA 18Z SAT-00Z
SUN, WITH IFR/LIFR MOST LIKELY AT KEKO. AT KWMC/KEKO, RA/SN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WEST WINDS SAT, 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 45
KTS. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

92/99/99




000
FXUS65 KLKN 210055
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
413 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT. A MUCH WETTER STORM
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CWA BUT A POTENT LITTLE TROUGH IS MOVING
ASHORE IN CALIFORNIA...WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF FORCING AND MOISTURE REACHING INTO NEVADA.
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS SO AT THIS TIME
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES APPEAR NECESSARY. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT WHERE CLOUDS BREAK WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

WEAK RIDGING PUSHES EAST FROM THE PACIFIC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM...WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SOME
SUN. THIS SUN WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED BUT SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT
DAY ACROSS THE SILVER STATE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE
APPROACHING BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER SO CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING
LATER IN THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM PASSING BY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

VERY STRONG JET STREAM FIRE HOSE AIMS AT OREGON AND IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE MORE POTENT STORM STARTS SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR
AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY SOME
DECENT VALLEY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THIS
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER IN THE DAY AND DURING THE
EVENING...RESULTING IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW. DUE PRIMARILY TO THE COMMONALITY OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DURING WINTER STORMS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES OF THE
RUBIES AND EAST HUMBOLDTS...AND PRECEDENT...IT WAS DECIDED TO CHANGE
THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WATCH. THIS DOES *NOT* MEAN
THAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS SEVERE...JUST THAT MOST
WINTER STORMS IN THIS AREA ARE ACCOMPANIED BY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ANYWAY AND THUS THE ADDITIONAL HEADLINE IS NOT CONSIDERED TO BE
HELPFUL. AS FOR THE NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY WATCH...WARM TEMPERATURES
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SUGGEST THAT THE WARNING LEVEL
SNOWFALL MAY BE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET...WHICH IS
ABOVE WHERE MOST OF THE POPULATION OF THIS AREA LIVES (OWYHEE AND
JACKPOT). HOWEVER...FOR NOW DID NOT ALTER THE WATCH IN ANY WAY. FOR
ADJACENT AREAS...SUCH AS OUR MOST POPULATED FORECAST ZONES AROUND
ELKO AND SPRING CREEK...BELIEVE WARM AIR WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY
OCCURRING LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THESE
AREAS...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST IN
HUMBOLDT...LANDER...EUREKA AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES...MAY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE AS WELL AS
BLOWING SNOW...BUT DID NOT ADD ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WOULD
LIKE TO GO ANOTHER SHIFT OR SO BEFORE PULLING THAT TRIGGER GIVEN
THAT THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE LATER SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL ALSO START TO RELAX. RCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

FIRST...THE GOOD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO AGREE VERY WELL FROM MONDAY 00Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY 00Z. THEY PUT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN UNDER
THE EASTERN LIMB OF A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE...ALBEIT WITH DIRTY RH
SLIDING OVER THE TOP FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS MOISTURE CLIPS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEVADA AND SURFACE HIGH SLIDES DOWN FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE U.S. NORTHERN ROCKIES AND JUST
BRUSHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SURFACE GRADIENT IS WEAK WEST OF
SLC AND SO WINDS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL TEND TO THE LIGHT SIDE.
OROGRAPHIC DRAINAGE WILL GENERALLY OVERRULE GRADIENT FORCES.
POPS...MOSTLY BELOW 30 PERCENT...MOSTLY ONLY AFFECT ELKO COUNTY
AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL DECREASE
EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY 00Z. SOUTH OF ELKO/HUMBOLDT COUNTIES
POPS DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ALMOST NOTHING DOING FOR
LANDER/EUREKA/WHITE PINE/NORTHERN NYE. TEMPS NOT BRUTAL AS LAST
LAST WEEK...BUT CERTAINLY NOT INDIAN SUMMER. LOWS MOSTLY RANGING
FROM THE TEENS TO THE 20S...WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE 30S MONDAY
AND THEN 40S AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

NOW...THE BAD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO MAKE A VERY UNHAPPY MARRIAGE FROM WEDNESDAY 00Z
ON THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. INITIALLY...THEY BOTH HAVE A
HIGH CENTERED OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL NORTE COAST. THE GFS
BRINGS A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE
COAST WHICH BUILDS UP A SHORT RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S.
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. SURFACE TO 500 MB THICKNESSES HINT AT TEMPS
IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY 60S. RH IS DRY. NO PRECIP WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM FOR TRAVELING AND FOR CELEBRATING.

THE EURO...HOWEVER...HAS A MORE INVOLVED PATTER WITH THE HUDSON
BAY LOW...THAT`S CORRECT...ACTUALLY DROPPING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
AROUND ITS WEST SIDE DOWN THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IMPLIED TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND DROP TEMPS INTO THE
30S FOR HIGHS...AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS FOR LOWS.
TRICKY TRAVEL AND RAW CELEBRATING.

THE SOLUTION...AS IT STANDS NOW.

LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR VERY LOW POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA. ADJUSTED THE RAW EURO TEMPS UP FOR A
LIKELY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE DAY/VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE
NIGHT/MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL...THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...75%. FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY ON...25%.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND ADJUSTMENTS WHICH ARE SURE TO
COME.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF PRECIP COMING IN FROM THE COAST WILL
PRODUCE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KWMC AND POSSIBLY KEKO AND KELY 00Z
FRIDAY THROUGH ABOUT 12 FRIDAY...DECREASING FROM THE WEST. KTPH
HAS BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT ALL
SITES. CIGS MAY REACH DOWN TO BKN/OVC040 AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. MVFR
POSSIBLE AT KWMC AND KTPH IN SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

93/98/98





000
FXUS65 KLKN 210055
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
413 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT. A MUCH WETTER STORM
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CWA BUT A POTENT LITTLE TROUGH IS MOVING
ASHORE IN CALIFORNIA...WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF FORCING AND MOISTURE REACHING INTO NEVADA.
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS SO AT THIS TIME
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES APPEAR NECESSARY. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT WHERE CLOUDS BREAK WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

WEAK RIDGING PUSHES EAST FROM THE PACIFIC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM...WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SOME
SUN. THIS SUN WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED BUT SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT
DAY ACROSS THE SILVER STATE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE
APPROACHING BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER SO CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING
LATER IN THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM PASSING BY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

VERY STRONG JET STREAM FIRE HOSE AIMS AT OREGON AND IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE MORE POTENT STORM STARTS SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR
AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY SOME
DECENT VALLEY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THIS
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER IN THE DAY AND DURING THE
EVENING...RESULTING IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW. DUE PRIMARILY TO THE COMMONALITY OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DURING WINTER STORMS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES OF THE
RUBIES AND EAST HUMBOLDTS...AND PRECEDENT...IT WAS DECIDED TO CHANGE
THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WATCH. THIS DOES *NOT* MEAN
THAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS SEVERE...JUST THAT MOST
WINTER STORMS IN THIS AREA ARE ACCOMPANIED BY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ANYWAY AND THUS THE ADDITIONAL HEADLINE IS NOT CONSIDERED TO BE
HELPFUL. AS FOR THE NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY WATCH...WARM TEMPERATURES
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SUGGEST THAT THE WARNING LEVEL
SNOWFALL MAY BE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET...WHICH IS
ABOVE WHERE MOST OF THE POPULATION OF THIS AREA LIVES (OWYHEE AND
JACKPOT). HOWEVER...FOR NOW DID NOT ALTER THE WATCH IN ANY WAY. FOR
ADJACENT AREAS...SUCH AS OUR MOST POPULATED FORECAST ZONES AROUND
ELKO AND SPRING CREEK...BELIEVE WARM AIR WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY
OCCURRING LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THESE
AREAS...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST IN
HUMBOLDT...LANDER...EUREKA AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES...MAY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE AS WELL AS
BLOWING SNOW...BUT DID NOT ADD ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WOULD
LIKE TO GO ANOTHER SHIFT OR SO BEFORE PULLING THAT TRIGGER GIVEN
THAT THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE LATER SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL ALSO START TO RELAX. RCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

FIRST...THE GOOD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO AGREE VERY WELL FROM MONDAY 00Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY 00Z. THEY PUT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN UNDER
THE EASTERN LIMB OF A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE...ALBEIT WITH DIRTY RH
SLIDING OVER THE TOP FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS MOISTURE CLIPS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEVADA AND SURFACE HIGH SLIDES DOWN FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE U.S. NORTHERN ROCKIES AND JUST
BRUSHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SURFACE GRADIENT IS WEAK WEST OF
SLC AND SO WINDS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL TEND TO THE LIGHT SIDE.
OROGRAPHIC DRAINAGE WILL GENERALLY OVERRULE GRADIENT FORCES.
POPS...MOSTLY BELOW 30 PERCENT...MOSTLY ONLY AFFECT ELKO COUNTY
AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL DECREASE
EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY 00Z. SOUTH OF ELKO/HUMBOLDT COUNTIES
POPS DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ALMOST NOTHING DOING FOR
LANDER/EUREKA/WHITE PINE/NORTHERN NYE. TEMPS NOT BRUTAL AS LAST
LAST WEEK...BUT CERTAINLY NOT INDIAN SUMMER. LOWS MOSTLY RANGING
FROM THE TEENS TO THE 20S...WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE 30S MONDAY
AND THEN 40S AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

NOW...THE BAD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO MAKE A VERY UNHAPPY MARRIAGE FROM WEDNESDAY 00Z
ON THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. INITIALLY...THEY BOTH HAVE A
HIGH CENTERED OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL NORTE COAST. THE GFS
BRINGS A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE
COAST WHICH BUILDS UP A SHORT RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S.
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. SURFACE TO 500 MB THICKNESSES HINT AT TEMPS
IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY 60S. RH IS DRY. NO PRECIP WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM FOR TRAVELING AND FOR CELEBRATING.

THE EURO...HOWEVER...HAS A MORE INVOLVED PATTER WITH THE HUDSON
BAY LOW...THAT`S CORRECT...ACTUALLY DROPPING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
AROUND ITS WEST SIDE DOWN THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IMPLIED TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND DROP TEMPS INTO THE
30S FOR HIGHS...AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS FOR LOWS.
TRICKY TRAVEL AND RAW CELEBRATING.

THE SOLUTION...AS IT STANDS NOW.

LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR VERY LOW POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA. ADJUSTED THE RAW EURO TEMPS UP FOR A
LIKELY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE DAY/VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE
NIGHT/MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL...THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...75%. FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY ON...25%.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND ADJUSTMENTS WHICH ARE SURE TO
COME.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF PRECIP COMING IN FROM THE COAST WILL
PRODUCE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KWMC AND POSSIBLY KEKO AND KELY 00Z
FRIDAY THROUGH ABOUT 12 FRIDAY...DECREASING FROM THE WEST. KTPH
HAS BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT ALL
SITES. CIGS MAY REACH DOWN TO BKN/OVC040 AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. MVFR
POSSIBLE AT KWMC AND KTPH IN SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

93/98/98




000
FXUS65 KLKN 210018
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
413 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT. A MUCH WETTER STORM
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CWA BUT A POTENT LITTLE TROUGH IS MOVING
ASHORE IN CALIFORNIA...WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF FORCING AND MOISTURE REACHING INTO NEVADA.
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS SO AT THIS TIME
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES APPEAR NECESSARY. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT WHERE CLOUDS BREAK WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

WEAK RIDGING PUSHES EAST FROM THE PACIFIC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM...WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SOME
SUN. THIS SUN WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED BUT SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT
DAY ACROSS THE SILVER STATE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE
APPROACHING BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER SO CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING
LATER IN THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM PASSING BY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

VERY STRONG JET STREAM FIRE HOSE AIMS AT OREGON AND IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE MORE POTENT STORM STARTS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
OUR AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
SOME DECENT VALLEY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER IN THE DAY AND DURING THE
EVENING...RESULTING IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW. DUE PRIMARILY TO THE COMMONALITY OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DURING WINTER STORMS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES OF THE
RUBIES AND EAST HUMBOLDTS...AND PRECEDENT...IT WAS DECIDED TO
CHANGE THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WATCH. THIS DOES *NOT*
MEAN THAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS SEVERE...JUST THAT
MOST WINTER STORMS IN THIS AREA ARE ACCOMPANIED BY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ANYWAY AND THUS THE ADDITIONAL HEADLINE IS NOT
CONSIDERED TO BE HELPFUL. AS FOR THE NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY
WATCH...WARM TEMPERATURES DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SUGGEST
THAT THE WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL MAY BE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5500 FEET...WHICH IS ABOVE WHERE MOST OF THE POPULATION OF
THIS AREA LIVES (OWYHEE AND JACKPOT). HOWEVER...FOR NOW DID NOT
ALTER THE WATCH IN ANY WAY. FOR ADJACENT AREAS...SUCH AS OUR MOST
POPULATED FORECAST ZONES AROUND ELKO AND SPRING CREEK...BELIEVE
WARM AIR WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY OCCURRING LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST IN HUMBOLDT...LANDER...EUREKA AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES...MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FLASH FREEZE AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW...BUT DID NOT ADD ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES. WOULD LIKE TO GO ANOTHER SHIFT OR SO BEFORE
PULLING THAT TRIGGER GIVEN THAT THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE LATER
SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL ALSO START TO RELAX. RCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

FIRST...THE GOOD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO AGREE VERY WELL FROM MONDAY 00Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY 00Z. THEY PUT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN UNDER
THE EASTERN LIMB OF A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE...ALBEIT WITH DIRTY RH
SLIDING OVER THE TOP FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS MOISTURE CLIPS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEVADA AND SURFACE HIGH SLIDES DOWN FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE U.S. NORTHERN ROCKIES AND JUST
BRUSHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SURFACE GRADIENT IS WEAK WEST OF
SLC AND SO WINDS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL TEND TO THE LIGHT SIDE.
OROGRAPHIC DRAINAGE WILL GENERALLY OVERRULE GRADIENT FORCES.
POPS...MOSTLY BELOW 30 PERCENT...MOSTLY ONLY AFFECT ELKO COUNTY
AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL DECREASE
EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY 00Z. SOUTH OF ELKO/HUMBOLDT COUNTIES
POPS DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ALMOST NOTHING DOING FOR
LANDER/EUREKA/WHITE PINE/NORTHERN NYE. TEMPS NOT BRUTAL AS LAST
LAST WEEK...BUT CERTAINLY NOT INDIAN SUMMER. LOWS MOSTLY RANGING
FROM THE TEENS TO THE 20S...WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE 30S MONDAY
AND THEN 40S AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

NOW...THE BAD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO MAKE A VERY UNHAPPY MARRIAGE FROM WEDNESDAY 00Z
ON THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. INITIALLY...THEY BOTH HAVE A
HIGH CENTERED OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL NORTE COAST. THE GFS
BRINGS A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE
COAST WHICH BUILDS UP A SHORT RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S.
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. SURFACE TO 500 MB THICKNESSES HINT AT TEMPS
IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY 60S. RH IS DRY. NO PRECIP WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM FOR TRAVELING AND FOR CELEBRATING.

THE EURO...HOWEVER...HAS A MORE INVOLVED PATTER WITH THE HUDSON
BAY LOW...THAT`S CORRECT...ACTUALLY DROPPING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
AROUND ITS WEST SIDE DOWN THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IMPLIED TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND DROP TEMPS INTO THE
30S FOR HIGHS...AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS FOR LOWS.
TRICKY TRAVEL AND RAW CELEBRATING.

THE SOLUTION...AS IT STANDS NOW.

LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR VERY LOW POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA. ADJUSTED THE RAW EURO TEMPS UP FOR A
LIKELY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE DAY/VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE
NIGHT/MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL...THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...75%. FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY ON...25%.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND ADJUSTMENTS WHICH ARE SURE TO
COME.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF PRECIP COMING IN FROM THE COAST WILL
PRODUCE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KWMC AND POSSIBLY KEKO AND KELY 00Z
FRIDAY THROUGH ABOUT 12 FRIDAY...DECREASING FROM THE WEST. KTPH
HAS BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT ALL
SITES. CIGS MAY REACH DOWN TO BKN/OVC040 AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. MVFR
POSSIBLE AT KWMC AND KTPH IN SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

93/98/98




000
FXUS65 KLKN 210015
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
413 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT. A MUCH WETTER STORM
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CWA BUT A POTENT LITTLE TROUGH IS MOVING
ASHORE IN CALIFORNIA...WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF FORCING AND MOISTURE REACHING INTO NEVADA.
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS SO AT THIS TIME
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES APPEAR NECESSARY. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT WHERE CLOUDS BREAK WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

WEAK RIDGING PUSHES EAST FROM THE PACIFIC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM...WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SOME
SUN. THIS SUN WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED BUT SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT
DAY ACROSS THE SILVER STATE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE
APPROACHING BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER SO CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING
LATER IN THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM PASSING BY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

VERY STRONG JET STREAM FIRE HOSE AIMS AT OREGON AND IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE MORE POTENT STORM STARTS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
OUR AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
SOME DECENT VALLEY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER IN THE DAY AND DURING THE
EVENING...RESULTING IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW. DUE PRIMARILY TO THE COMMONALITY OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DURING WINTER STORMS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES OF THE
RUBIES AND EAST HUMBOLDTS...AND PRECEDENT...IT WAS DECIDED TO
CHANGE THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WATCH. THIS DOES *NOT*
MEAN THAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS SEVERE...JUST THAT
MOST WINTER STORMS IN THIS AREA ARE ACCOMPANIED BY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ANYWAY AND THUS THE ADDITIONAL HEADLINE IS NOT
CONSIDERED TO BE HELPFUL. AS FOR THE NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY
WATCH...WARM TEMPERATURES DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SUGGEST
THAT THE WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL MAY BE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5500 FEET...WHICH IS ABOVE WHERE MOST OF THE POPULATION OF
THIS AREA LIVES (OWYHEE AND JACKPOT). HOWEVER...FOR NOW DID NOT
ALTER THE WATCH IN ANY WAY. FOR ADJACENT AREAS...SUCH AS OUR MOST
POPULATED FORECAST ZONES AROUND ELKO AND SPRING CREEK...BELIEVE
WARM AIR WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY OCCURRING LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THESE AREAS MAY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE AS WELL AS BLOWING
SNOW...BUT DID NOT ADD ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WOULD LIKE
TO GO ANOTHER SHIFT OR SO BEFORE PULLING THAT TRIGGER GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE LATER SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL ALSO START TO RELAX. RCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

FIRST...THE GOOD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO AGREE VERY WELL FROM MONDAY 00Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY 00Z. THEY PUT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN UNDER
THE EASTERN LIMB OF A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE...ALBEIT WITH DIRTY RH
SLIDING OVER THE TOP FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS MOISTURE CLIPS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEVADA AND SURFACE HIGH SLIDES DOWN FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE U.S. NORTHERN ROCKIES AND JUST
BRUSHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SURFACE GRADIENT IS WEAK WEST OF
SLC AND SO WINDS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL TEND TO THE LIGHT SIDE.
OROGRAPHIC DRAINAGE WILL GENERALLY OVERRULE GRADIENT FORCES.
POPS...MOSTLY BELOW 30 PERCENT...MOSTLY ONLY AFFECT ELKO COUNTY
AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL DECREASE
EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY 00Z. SOUTH OF ELKO/HUMBOLDT COUNTIES
POPS DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ALMOST NOTHING DOING FOR
LANDER/EUREKA/WHITE PINE/NORTHERN NYE. TEMPS NOT BRUTAL AS LAST
LAST WEEK...BUT CERTAINLY NOT INDIAN SUMMER. LOWS MOSTLY RANGING
FROM THE TEENS TO THE 20S...WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE 30S MONDAY
AND THEN 40S AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

NOW...THE BAD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO MAKE A VERY UNHAPPY MARRIAGE FROM WEDNESDAY 00Z
ON THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. INITIALLY...THEY BOTH HAVE A
HIGH CENTERED OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL NORTE COAST. THE GFS
BRINGS A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE
COAST WHICH BUILDS UP A SHORT RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S.
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. SURFACE TO 500 MB THICKNESSES HINT AT TEMPS
IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY 60S. RH IS DRY. NO PRECIP WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM FOR TRAVELING AND FOR CELEBRATING.

THE EURO...HOWEVER...HAS A MORE INVOLVED PATTER WITH THE HUDSON
BAY LOW...THAT`S CORRECT...ACTUALLY DROPPING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
AROUND ITS WEST SIDE DOWN THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IMPLIED TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND DROP TEMPS INTO THE
30S FOR HIGHS...AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS FOR LOWS.
TRICKY TRAVEL AND RAW CELEBRATING.

THE SOLUTION...AS IT STANDS NOW.

LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR VERY LOW POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA. ADJUSTED THE RAW EURO TEMPS UP FOR A
LIKELY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE DAY/VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE
NIGHT/MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL...THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...75%. FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY ON...25%.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND ADJUSTMENTS WHICH ARE SURE TO
COME.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF PRECIP COMING IN FROM THE COAST WILL
PRODUCE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KWMC AND POSSIBLY KEKO AND KELY 00Z
FRIDAY THROUGH ABOUT 12 FRIDAY...DECREASING FROM THE WEST. KTPH
HAS BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT ALL
SITES. CIGS MAY REACH DOWN TO BKN/OVC040 AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. MVFR
POSSIBLE AT KWMC AND KTPH IN SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

93/98/98





000
FXUS65 KLKN 210015
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
413 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT. A MUCH WETTER STORM
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CWA BUT A POTENT LITTLE TROUGH IS MOVING
ASHORE IN CALIFORNIA...WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF FORCING AND MOISTURE REACHING INTO NEVADA.
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS SO AT THIS TIME
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES APPEAR NECESSARY. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT WHERE CLOUDS BREAK WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

WEAK RIDGING PUSHES EAST FROM THE PACIFIC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM...WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SOME
SUN. THIS SUN WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED BUT SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT
DAY ACROSS THE SILVER STATE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE
APPROACHING BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER SO CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING
LATER IN THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM PASSING BY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

VERY STRONG JET STREAM FIRE HOSE AIMS AT OREGON AND IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE MORE POTENT STORM STARTS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
OUR AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
SOME DECENT VALLEY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER IN THE DAY AND DURING THE
EVENING...RESULTING IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW. DUE PRIMARILY TO THE COMMONALITY OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DURING WINTER STORMS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES OF THE
RUBIES AND EAST HUMBOLDTS...AND PRECEDENT...IT WAS DECIDED TO
CHANGE THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WATCH. THIS DOES *NOT*
MEAN THAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS SEVERE...JUST THAT
MOST WINTER STORMS IN THIS AREA ARE ACCOMPANIED BY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ANYWAY AND THUS THE ADDITIONAL HEADLINE IS NOT
CONSIDERED TO BE HELPFUL. AS FOR THE NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY
WATCH...WARM TEMPERATURES DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SUGGEST
THAT THE WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL MAY BE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5500 FEET...WHICH IS ABOVE WHERE MOST OF THE POPULATION OF
THIS AREA LIVES (OWYHEE AND JACKPOT). HOWEVER...FOR NOW DID NOT
ALTER THE WATCH IN ANY WAY. FOR ADJACENT AREAS...SUCH AS OUR MOST
POPULATED FORECAST ZONES AROUND ELKO AND SPRING CREEK...BELIEVE
WARM AIR WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY OCCURRING LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THESE AREAS MAY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE AS WELL AS BLOWING
SNOW...BUT DID NOT ADD ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WOULD LIKE
TO GO ANOTHER SHIFT OR SO BEFORE PULLING THAT TRIGGER GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE LATER SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL ALSO START TO RELAX. RCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

FIRST...THE GOOD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO AGREE VERY WELL FROM MONDAY 00Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY 00Z. THEY PUT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN UNDER
THE EASTERN LIMB OF A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE...ALBEIT WITH DIRTY RH
SLIDING OVER THE TOP FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS MOISTURE CLIPS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEVADA AND SURFACE HIGH SLIDES DOWN FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE U.S. NORTHERN ROCKIES AND JUST
BRUSHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SURFACE GRADIENT IS WEAK WEST OF
SLC AND SO WINDS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL TEND TO THE LIGHT SIDE.
OROGRAPHIC DRAINAGE WILL GENERALLY OVERRULE GRADIENT FORCES.
POPS...MOSTLY BELOW 30 PERCENT...MOSTLY ONLY AFFECT ELKO COUNTY
AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL DECREASE
EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY 00Z. SOUTH OF ELKO/HUMBOLDT COUNTIES
POPS DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ALMOST NOTHING DOING FOR
LANDER/EUREKA/WHITE PINE/NORTHERN NYE. TEMPS NOT BRUTAL AS LAST
LAST WEEK...BUT CERTAINLY NOT INDIAN SUMMER. LOWS MOSTLY RANGING
FROM THE TEENS TO THE 20S...WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE 30S MONDAY
AND THEN 40S AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

NOW...THE BAD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO MAKE A VERY UNHAPPY MARRIAGE FROM WEDNESDAY 00Z
ON THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. INITIALLY...THEY BOTH HAVE A
HIGH CENTERED OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL NORTE COAST. THE GFS
BRINGS A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE
COAST WHICH BUILDS UP A SHORT RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S.
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. SURFACE TO 500 MB THICKNESSES HINT AT TEMPS
IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY 60S. RH IS DRY. NO PRECIP WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM FOR TRAVELING AND FOR CELEBRATING.

THE EURO...HOWEVER...HAS A MORE INVOLVED PATTER WITH THE HUDSON
BAY LOW...THAT`S CORRECT...ACTUALLY DROPPING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
AROUND ITS WEST SIDE DOWN THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IMPLIED TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND DROP TEMPS INTO THE
30S FOR HIGHS...AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS FOR LOWS.
TRICKY TRAVEL AND RAW CELEBRATING.

THE SOLUTION...AS IT STANDS NOW.

LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR VERY LOW POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA. ADJUSTED THE RAW EURO TEMPS UP FOR A
LIKELY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE DAY/VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE
NIGHT/MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL...THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...75%. FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY ON...25%.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND ADJUSTMENTS WHICH ARE SURE TO
COME.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF PRECIP COMING IN FROM THE COAST WILL
PRODUCE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KWMC AND POSSIBLY KEKO AND KELY 00Z
FRIDAY THROUGH ABOUT 12 FRIDAY...DECREASING FROM THE WEST. KTPH
HAS BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT ALL
SITES. CIGS MAY REACH DOWN TO BKN/OVC040 AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. MVFR
POSSIBLE AT KWMC AND KTPH IN SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

93/98/98




000
FXUS65 KLKN 210013
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
413 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT. A MUCH WETTER STORM
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CWA BUT A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ASHORE IN CALIFORNIA...WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...WITH ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF FORCING AND MOISTURE
REACHING INTO NEVADA. NORTHEASTERN NEVADA IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THOUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD STILL SEE
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY
ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS SO AT THIS TIME NO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES APPEAR NECESSARY. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY
CHILLY NIGHT WHERE CLOUDS BREAK WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

WEAK RIDGING PUSHES EAST FROM THE PACIFIC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM...WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SOME
SUN. THIS SUN WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED BUT SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT
DAY ACROSS THE SILVER STATE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE
APPROACHING BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER SO CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING
LATER IN THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM PASSING BY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

VERY STRONG JET STREAM FIRE HOSE AIMS AT OREGON AND IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE MORE POTENT STORM STARTS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
OUR AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
SOME DECENT VALLEY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER IN THE DAY AND DURING THE
EVENING...RESULTING IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW. DUE PRIMARILY TO THE COMMONALITY OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DURING WINTER STORMS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES OF THE
RUBIES AND EAST HUMBOLDTS...AND PRECEDENT...IT WAS DECIDED TO
CHANGE THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WATCH. THIS DOES *NOT*
MEAN THAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS SEVERE...JUST THAT
MOST WINTER STORMS IN THIS AREA ARE ACCOMPANIED BY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ANYWAY AND THUS THE ADDITIONAL HEADLINE IS NOT
CONSIDERED TO BE HELPFUL. AS FOR THE NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY
WATCH...WARM TEMPERATURES DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SUGGEST
THAT THE WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL MAY BE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5500 FEET...WHICH IS ABOVE WHERE MOST OF THE POPULATION OF
THIS AREA LIVES (OWYHEE AND JACKPOT). HOWEVER...FOR NOW DID NOT
ALTER THE WATCH IN ANY WAY. FOR ADJACENT AREAS...SUCH AS OUR MOST
POPULATED FORECAST ZONES AROUND ELKO AND SPRING CREEK...BELIEVE
WARM AIR WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY OCCURRING LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THESE AREAS MAY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE AS WELL AS BLOWING
SNOW...BUT DID NOT ADD ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WOULD LIKE
TO GO ANOTHER SHIFT OR SO BEFORE PULLING THAT TRIGGER GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE LATER SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL ALSO START TO RELAX. RCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

FIRST...THE GOOD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO AGREE VERY WELL FROM MONDAY 00Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY 00Z. THEY PUT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN UNDER
THE EASTERN LIMB OF A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE...ALBEIT WITH DIRTY RH
SLIDING OVER THE TOP FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS MOISTURE CLIPS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEVADA AND SURFACE HIGH SLIDES DOWN FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE U.S. NORTHERN ROCKIES AND JUST
BRUSHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SURFACE GRADIENT IS WEAK WEST OF
SLC AND SO WINDS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL TEND TO THE LIGHT SIDE.
OROGRAPHIC DRAINAGE WILL GENERALLY OVERRULE GRADIENT FORCES.
POPS...MOSTLY BELOW 30 PERCENT...MOSTLY ONLY AFFECT ELKO COUNTY
AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL DECREASE
EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY 00Z. SOUTH OF ELKO/HUMBOLDT COUNTIES
POPS DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ALMOST NOTHING DOING FOR
LANDER/EUREKA/WHITE PINE/NORTHERN NYE. TEMPS NOT BRUTAL AS LAST
LAST WEEK...BUT CERTAINLY NOT INDIAN SUMMER. LOWS MOSTLY RANGING
FROM THE TEENS TO THE 20S...WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE 30S MONDAY
AND THEN 40S AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

NOW...THE BAD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO MAKE A VERY UNHAPPY MARRIAGE FROM WEDNESDAY 00Z
ON THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. INITIALLY...THEY BOTH HAVE A
HIGH CENTERED OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL NORTE COAST. THE GFS
BRINGS A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE
COAST WHICH BUILDS UP A SHORT RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S.
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. SURFACE TO 500 MB THICKNESSES HINT AT TEMPS
IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY 60S. RH IS DRY. NO PRECIP WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM FOR TRAVELING AND FOR CELEBRATING.

THE EURO...HOWEVER...HAS A MORE INVOLVED PATTER WITH THE HUDSON
BAY LOW...THAT`S CORRECT...ACTUALLY DROPPING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
AROUND ITS WEST SIDE DOWN THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IMPLIED TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND DROP TEMPS INTO THE
30S FOR HIGHS...AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS FOR LOWS.
TRICKY TRAVEL AND RAW CELEBRATING.

THE SOLUTION...AS IT STANDS NOW.

LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR VERY LOW POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA. ADJUSTED THE RAW EURO TEMPS UP FOR A
LIKELY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE DAY/VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE
NIGHT/MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL...THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...75%. FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY ON...25%.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND ADJUSTMENTS WHICH ARE SURE TO
COME.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF PRECIP COMING IN FROM THE COAST WILL
PRODUCE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KWMC AND POSSIBLY KEKO AND KELY 00Z
FRIDAY THROUGH ABOUT 12 FRIDAY...DECREASING FROM THE WEST. KTPH
HAS BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT ALL
SITES. CIGS MAY REACH DOWN TO BKN/OVC040 AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. MVFR
POSSIBLE AT KWMC AND KTPH IN SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

93/98/98




000
FXUS65 KLKN 210013
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
413 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT. A MUCH WETTER STORM
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CWA BUT A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ASHORE IN CALIFORNIA...WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...WITH ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF FORCING AND MOISTURE
REACHING INTO NEVADA. NORTHEASTERN NEVADA IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THOUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD STILL SEE
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY
ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS SO AT THIS TIME NO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES APPEAR NECESSARY. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY
CHILLY NIGHT WHERE CLOUDS BREAK WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

WEAK RIDGING PUSHES EAST FROM THE PACIFIC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM...WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SOME
SUN. THIS SUN WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED BUT SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT
DAY ACROSS THE SILVER STATE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE
APPROACHING BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER SO CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING
LATER IN THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM PASSING BY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

VERY STRONG JET STREAM FIRE HOSE AIMS AT OREGON AND IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE MORE POTENT STORM STARTS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
OUR AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
SOME DECENT VALLEY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER IN THE DAY AND DURING THE
EVENING...RESULTING IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW. DUE PRIMARILY TO THE COMMONALITY OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DURING WINTER STORMS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES OF THE
RUBIES AND EAST HUMBOLDTS...AND PRECEDENT...IT WAS DECIDED TO
CHANGE THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WATCH. THIS DOES *NOT*
MEAN THAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS SEVERE...JUST THAT
MOST WINTER STORMS IN THIS AREA ARE ACCOMPANIED BY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ANYWAY AND THUS THE ADDITIONAL HEADLINE IS NOT
CONSIDERED TO BE HELPFUL. AS FOR THE NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY
WATCH...WARM TEMPERATURES DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SUGGEST
THAT THE WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL MAY BE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5500 FEET...WHICH IS ABOVE WHERE MOST OF THE POPULATION OF
THIS AREA LIVES (OWYHEE AND JACKPOT). HOWEVER...FOR NOW DID NOT
ALTER THE WATCH IN ANY WAY. FOR ADJACENT AREAS...SUCH AS OUR MOST
POPULATED FORECAST ZONES AROUND ELKO AND SPRING CREEK...BELIEVE
WARM AIR WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY OCCURRING LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THESE AREAS MAY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE AS WELL AS BLOWING
SNOW...BUT DID NOT ADD ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WOULD LIKE
TO GO ANOTHER SHIFT OR SO BEFORE PULLING THAT TRIGGER GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE LATER SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL ALSO START TO RELAX. RCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

FIRST...THE GOOD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO AGREE VERY WELL FROM MONDAY 00Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY 00Z. THEY PUT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN UNDER
THE EASTERN LIMB OF A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE...ALBEIT WITH DIRTY RH
SLIDING OVER THE TOP FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS MOISTURE CLIPS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEVADA AND SURFACE HIGH SLIDES DOWN FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE U.S. NORTHERN ROCKIES AND JUST
BRUSHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SURFACE GRADIENT IS WEAK WEST OF
SLC AND SO WINDS IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL TEND TO THE LIGHT SIDE.
OROGRAPHIC DRAINAGE WILL GENERALLY OVERRULE GRADIENT FORCES.
POPS...MOSTLY BELOW 30 PERCENT...MOSTLY ONLY AFFECT ELKO COUNTY
AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL DECREASE
EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY 00Z. SOUTH OF ELKO/HUMBOLDT COUNTIES
POPS DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH ALMOST NOTHING DOING FOR
LANDER/EUREKA/WHITE PINE/NORTHERN NYE. TEMPS NOT BRUTAL AS LAST
LAST WEEK...BUT CERTAINLY NOT INDIAN SUMMER. LOWS MOSTLY RANGING
FROM THE TEENS TO THE 20S...WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE 30S MONDAY
AND THEN 40S AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

NOW...THE BAD NEWS...FROM A FORECASTER`S STANDPOINT.

THE GFS AND EURO MAKE A VERY UNHAPPY MARRIAGE FROM WEDNESDAY 00Z
ON THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. INITIALLY...THEY BOTH HAVE A
HIGH CENTERED OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL NORTE COAST. THE GFS
BRINGS A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE
COAST WHICH BUILDS UP A SHORT RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S.
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. SURFACE TO 500 MB THICKNESSES HINT AT TEMPS
IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY 60S. RH IS DRY. NO PRECIP WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM FOR TRAVELING AND FOR CELEBRATING.

THE EURO...HOWEVER...HAS A MORE INVOLVED PATTER WITH THE HUDSON
BAY LOW...THAT`S CORRECT...ACTUALLY DROPPING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
AROUND ITS WEST SIDE DOWN THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IMPLIED TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND DROP TEMPS INTO THE
30S FOR HIGHS...AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS FOR LOWS.
TRICKY TRAVEL AND RAW CELEBRATING.

THE SOLUTION...AS IT STANDS NOW.

LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR VERY LOW POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA. ADJUSTED THE RAW EURO TEMPS UP FOR A
LIKELY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE DAY/VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE
NIGHT/MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL...THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...75%. FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY ON...25%.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND ADJUSTMENTS WHICH ARE SURE TO
COME.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF PRECIP COMING IN FROM THE COAST WILL
PRODUCE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KWMC AND POSSIBLY KEKO AND KELY 00Z
FRIDAY THROUGH ABOUT 12 FRIDAY...DECREASING FROM THE WEST. KTPH
HAS BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT ALL
SITES. CIGS MAY REACH DOWN TO BKN/OVC040 AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. MVFR
POSSIBLE AT KWMC AND KTPH IN SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

93/98/98





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