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000
FXUS65 KLKN 170255
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
755 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER ON THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES WHERE STRONGER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.UPDATE...NO THUNDER HAS BEEN SEEN ON RADAR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CURRENT 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTS A WEAK CAP
THAT IS PREVENTING STORMS FROM FORMING...AND SO THEREFORE HAVE
ELIMATED POPS FROM THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 346 PM /

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN PUSHES ONSHORE. THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA MAY SEE SOME HAZY CONDITIONS AS SMOKE FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES DRIFTS OVER THE SIERRA MTS. STILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA AS WEAK
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON NO STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO A WEAK CAPPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THERE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
CELLS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE INVERSION DUE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HEATING/TEMPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR SITUATION WITH
RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WEAK INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE
LEAD TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THAT MUST PUSH THROUGH A MID-LEVEL CAP
IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO DEVELOP. MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL EXPECT THURSDAY
TO BE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORM DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION SETTING OFF QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. EASTERN ELKO COUNTY
AND MUCH OF WHITE PINE COUNTY COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG YET FAST MOVING STORMS MOVE SW TO NE
THROUGH THE COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH CAPE SHEAR
AND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ELKO COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS IN
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT. AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...PRECIP AND INSTABILITY DECREASES OVER THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING
MAINLY FORM EUREKA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTS INTO WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN
NYE COUNTY ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE SRN CA COAST...DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. THEN AS THE UPPER
LOW KICKS OUT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES
INTO WHITE PINE COUNTY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND NE NV SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS TAKES THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE EC HAS THE LOW STRONGER AND KEEPS IT OVER EASTERN NV
THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AS IT HAS THE
BETTER TRACK RECORD RECENTLY...AND DRY OUT THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. JH

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT KELY
..KEKO AND KTPH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ZONE 467 AND POSSIBLY 468 REACH
CRITICAL WIND/RH THRESH-HOLDS. SINCE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD HAVE
GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES. ANOTHER WIND/RH ISSUE MAY SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ZONE 457 ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY
AND HUMIDITIES DECREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECTING BORDERLINE RH LEVELS...WITH JUST HOW CLOSE THIS GETS TO
CRITICAL LEVELS DEPENDING IN LARGE PART HOW QUICKLY HUMIDITIES
LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 457 SHOULD HAVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THIRD CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY TO BE IN ZONES 455 AND 470 WHERE
MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS SHOULD BE WET. THE AREAS JUST TO THE WEST
OF ZONES 455 AND 470 ARE THE CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED
DRY...WHICH INCLUDE ZONES 469 AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES
454 AND 457. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SITUATION THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN MAKE THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS A CONCERN AS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LEVEL OF LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS PERSIST. ZONES 467 468 AND THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF 454 AND 457 SHOULD ONLY HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/93







000
FXUS65 KLKN 170255
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
755 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER ON THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES WHERE STRONGER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.UPDATE...NO THUNDER HAS BEEN SEEN ON RADAR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CURRENT 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTS A WEAK CAP
THAT IS PREVENTING STORMS FROM FORMING...AND SO THEREFORE HAVE
ELIMATED POPS FROM THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 346 PM /

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN PUSHES ONSHORE. THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA MAY SEE SOME HAZY CONDITIONS AS SMOKE FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES DRIFTS OVER THE SIERRA MTS. STILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA AS WEAK
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON NO STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO A WEAK CAPPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THERE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
CELLS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE INVERSION DUE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HEATING/TEMPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR SITUATION WITH
RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WEAK INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE
LEAD TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THAT MUST PUSH THROUGH A MID-LEVEL CAP
IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO DEVELOP. MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL EXPECT THURSDAY
TO BE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORM DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION SETTING OFF QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. EASTERN ELKO COUNTY
AND MUCH OF WHITE PINE COUNTY COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG YET FAST MOVING STORMS MOVE SW TO NE
THROUGH THE COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH CAPE SHEAR
AND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ELKO COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS IN
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT. AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...PRECIP AND INSTABILITY DECREASES OVER THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING
MAINLY FORM EUREKA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTS INTO WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN
NYE COUNTY ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE SRN CA COAST...DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. THEN AS THE UPPER
LOW KICKS OUT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES
INTO WHITE PINE COUNTY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND NE NV SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS TAKES THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE EC HAS THE LOW STRONGER AND KEEPS IT OVER EASTERN NV
THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AS IT HAS THE
BETTER TRACK RECORD RECENTLY...AND DRY OUT THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. JH

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT KELY
..KEKO AND KTPH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ZONE 467 AND POSSIBLY 468 REACH
CRITICAL WIND/RH THRESH-HOLDS. SINCE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD HAVE
GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES. ANOTHER WIND/RH ISSUE MAY SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ZONE 457 ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY
AND HUMIDITIES DECREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECTING BORDERLINE RH LEVELS...WITH JUST HOW CLOSE THIS GETS TO
CRITICAL LEVELS DEPENDING IN LARGE PART HOW QUICKLY HUMIDITIES
LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 457 SHOULD HAVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THIRD CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY TO BE IN ZONES 455 AND 470 WHERE
MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS SHOULD BE WET. THE AREAS JUST TO THE WEST
OF ZONES 455 AND 470 ARE THE CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED
DRY...WHICH INCLUDE ZONES 469 AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES
454 AND 457. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SITUATION THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN MAKE THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS A CONCERN AS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LEVEL OF LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS PERSIST. ZONES 467 468 AND THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF 454 AND 457 SHOULD ONLY HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/93






000
FXUS65 KLKN 162246
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
346 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER ON THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES WHERE STRONGER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN PUSHES ONSHORE. THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA MAY SEE SOME HAZY CONDITIONS AS SMOKE FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES DRIFTS OVER THE SIERRA MTS. STILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA AS WEAK
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON NO STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO A WEAK CAPPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THERE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT
FOR CELLS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE INVERSION DUE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HEATING/TEMPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR SITUATION WITH
RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WEAK INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE
LEAD TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THAT MUST PUSH THROUGH A MID-LEVEL CAP
IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO DEVELOP. MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL EXPECT THURSDAY
TO BE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORM DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION SETTING OFF QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. EASTERN ELKO COUNTY
AND MUCH OF WHITE PINE COUNTY COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG YET FAST MOVING STORMS MOVE SW TO NE
THROUGH THE COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH CAPE SHEAR
AND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ELKO COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS IN
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT. AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...PRECIP AND INSTABILITY DECREASES OVER THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING
MAINLY FORM EUREKA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTS INTO WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN
NYE COUNTY ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE SRN CA COAST...DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. THEN AS THE UPPER
LOW KICKS OUT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES
INTO WHITE PINE COUNTY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND NE NV SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS TAKES THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE EC HAS THE LOW STRONGER AND KEEPS IT OVER EASTERN NV
THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AS IT HAS THE
BETTER TRACK RECORD RECENTLY...AND DRY OUT THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. JH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT KELY
...KEKO AND KTPH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ZONE 467 AND POSSIBLY 468 REACH
CRITICAL WIND/RH THRESH-HOLDS. SINCE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD HAVE
GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES. ANOTHER WIND/RH ISSUE MAY SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ZONE 457 ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY
AND HUMIDITIES DECREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECTING BORDERLINE RH LEVELS...WITH JUST HOW CLOSE THIS GETS TO
CRITICAL LEVELS DEPENDING IN LARGE PART HOW QUICKLY HUMIDITIES
LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 457 SHOULD HAVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THIRD CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY TO BE IN ZONES 455 AND 470 WHERE
MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS SHOULD BE WET. THE AREAS JUST TO THE WEST
OF ZONES 455 AND 470 ARE THE CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED
DRY...WHICH INCLUDE ZONES 469 AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES
454 AND 457. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SITUATION THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN MAKE THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS A CONCERN AS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LEVEL OF LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS PERSIST. ZONES 467 468 AND THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF 454 AND 457 SHOULD ONLY HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/87/87/96







000
FXUS65 KLKN 162246
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
346 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER ON THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES WHERE STRONGER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN PUSHES ONSHORE. THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA MAY SEE SOME HAZY CONDITIONS AS SMOKE FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES DRIFTS OVER THE SIERRA MTS. STILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA AS WEAK
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON NO STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO A WEAK CAPPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THERE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT
FOR CELLS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE INVERSION DUE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HEATING/TEMPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR SITUATION WITH
RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WEAK INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE
LEAD TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THAT MUST PUSH THROUGH A MID-LEVEL CAP
IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO DEVELOP. MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL EXPECT THURSDAY
TO BE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORM DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION SETTING OFF QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. EASTERN ELKO COUNTY
AND MUCH OF WHITE PINE COUNTY COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS STRONG YET FAST MOVING STORMS MOVE SW TO NE
THROUGH THE COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH CAPE SHEAR
AND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ELKO COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS IN
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT. AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...PRECIP AND INSTABILITY DECREASES OVER THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING
MAINLY FORM EUREKA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTS INTO WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN
NYE COUNTY ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE SRN CA COAST...DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. THEN AS THE UPPER
LOW KICKS OUT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES
INTO WHITE PINE COUNTY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND NE NV SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS TAKES THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE EC HAS THE LOW STRONGER AND KEEPS IT OVER EASTERN NV
THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AS IT HAS THE
BETTER TRACK RECORD RECENTLY...AND DRY OUT THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. JH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT KELY
...KEKO AND KTPH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ZONE 467 AND POSSIBLY 468 REACH
CRITICAL WIND/RH THRESH-HOLDS. SINCE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD HAVE
GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES. ANOTHER WIND/RH ISSUE MAY SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ZONE 457 ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY
AND HUMIDITIES DECREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECTING BORDERLINE RH LEVELS...WITH JUST HOW CLOSE THIS GETS TO
CRITICAL LEVELS DEPENDING IN LARGE PART HOW QUICKLY HUMIDITIES
LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 457 SHOULD HAVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THIRD CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY TO BE IN ZONES 455 AND 470 WHERE
MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS SHOULD BE WET. THE AREAS JUST TO THE WEST
OF ZONES 455 AND 470 ARE THE CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED
DRY...WHICH INCLUDE ZONES 469 AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES
454 AND 457. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SITUATION THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN MAKE THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS A CONCERN AS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LEVEL OF LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS PERSIST. ZONES 467 468 AND THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF 454 AND 457 SHOULD ONLY HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/87/87/96






000
FXUS65 KLKN 160930
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH
A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
CUTTING ACROSS OREGON PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF STATE HIGHWAY 140 /A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER IN OREGON/
OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SKIES START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH EARLY MORNING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL
RAPIDLY WARM REACHING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF 82 TO 86
DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG THE NATURAL
NEVADA CONVERGENCE ZONES WITH LI`S LOWERING TO MINUS 2 TO MINUS 3
AND CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 400 TO 800 J/KG. WITH BOTH THE
NAM/GFS KEEPING PWATS AROUND TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH...ANY VERY
LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AND DRY. AS FAR AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES...H7 TEMPS OF PLUS 13 TO PLUS 14 WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. ELY...EUREKA AND TONOPAH MAY
COME WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF TYING THE RECORD FOR THE DATE.

TONIGHT...ANY DRY CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH MODEL INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HANGING ON ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS /HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES/ AND GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AVERAGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL START OUT SIMILAR TO TUESDAY
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
RESULTING IN ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE FEEDING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. PWAT VALUES
INCREASE FROM SEVEN TO NINE TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH
LI`S FROM MINUS 2 TO MINUS 3 AND CAPE INCREASING FROM 400 TO 800
J/KG. WITH THE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION EXPECT TO BE MAINLY
WET...HAVE ADJUSTED TO CONVECTION ACCORDINGLY. SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS OVER ELKO COUNTY AND 60 TO 65 KTS OVER
HUMBOLDT COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS APPROACH
OR REACH SEVERE LIMITS ESPECIALLY OVER ELKO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE LONG TERM MODELS MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN FEATURES
AND BEHAVIOR OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST. HAVE THEREFORE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ANY
FORECAST ELEMENT DURING THIS TIME. BASIC IDEA OF SOME MOISTURE SURGE
FROM DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE INTO MOST OF NEVADA THURSDAY
REMAINS IN THE PICTURE. THIS QUASI-MONSOONAL SURGE WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS MIX OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES WITH SHOWERS, ETC. HAVE TRIED TO SIMPLIFY THE
COVERAGE WITH EITHER SHOWERS OR SHOWERS/ISLD THUNDER. TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...CLOSER TO SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL SURGE...BUT THIS TIME
FROM GULF OF MEXICO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY CLOSED LOW...A LA MAINLY THE
EC...OVER SOCAL. AGAIN...SERIOUS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND HAVE NOT CHANGED VIRTUALLY ANYTHING IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY ON OUT. TEMPS AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS GUSTY AT
TIMES BUT NOTHING ON THE HORIZON LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY OR ANYTHING. BB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY STORMS WILL AFFECT KELY AND IN
VICINITY OF KEKO THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING INCREASING WINDS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DRY TODAY. MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH RESULTING IN STORMS
TRANSITIONING TO WET THOUGH STILL ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE 15 TO 20 KTS
ALONG WITH MOISTURE AROUND 15 PERCENT OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER LEVELS ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WEST COAST TROUGH IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
SPREADING UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA TO SET OFF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS.

MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY WILL BE THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS LIMITED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL
LEVELS OF SCATTERED DRY STORMS. DRIER AIR WITH LIGHTER WINDS
RETURNS FRIDAY...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER MAINLY ZONE 455.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

89/98/98/89







000
FXUS65 KLKN 160930
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH
A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
CUTTING ACROSS OREGON PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF STATE HIGHWAY 140 /A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER IN OREGON/
OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SKIES START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH EARLY MORNING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL
RAPIDLY WARM REACHING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF 82 TO 86
DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG THE NATURAL
NEVADA CONVERGENCE ZONES WITH LI`S LOWERING TO MINUS 2 TO MINUS 3
AND CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 400 TO 800 J/KG. WITH BOTH THE
NAM/GFS KEEPING PWATS AROUND TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH...ANY VERY
LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AND DRY. AS FAR AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES...H7 TEMPS OF PLUS 13 TO PLUS 14 WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. ELY...EUREKA AND TONOPAH MAY
COME WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF TYING THE RECORD FOR THE DATE.

TONIGHT...ANY DRY CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH MODEL INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HANGING ON ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS /HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES/ AND GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AVERAGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL START OUT SIMILAR TO TUESDAY
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
RESULTING IN ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE FEEDING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. PWAT VALUES
INCREASE FROM SEVEN TO NINE TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH
LI`S FROM MINUS 2 TO MINUS 3 AND CAPE INCREASING FROM 400 TO 800
J/KG. WITH THE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION EXPECT TO BE MAINLY
WET...HAVE ADJUSTED TO CONVECTION ACCORDINGLY. SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS OVER ELKO COUNTY AND 60 TO 65 KTS OVER
HUMBOLDT COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS APPROACH
OR REACH SEVERE LIMITS ESPECIALLY OVER ELKO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE LONG TERM MODELS MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN FEATURES
AND BEHAVIOR OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST. HAVE THEREFORE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ANY
FORECAST ELEMENT DURING THIS TIME. BASIC IDEA OF SOME MOISTURE SURGE
FROM DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE INTO MOST OF NEVADA THURSDAY
REMAINS IN THE PICTURE. THIS QUASI-MONSOONAL SURGE WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS MIX OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES WITH SHOWERS, ETC. HAVE TRIED TO SIMPLIFY THE
COVERAGE WITH EITHER SHOWERS OR SHOWERS/ISLD THUNDER. TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...CLOSER TO SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL SURGE...BUT THIS TIME
FROM GULF OF MEXICO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY CLOSED LOW...A LA MAINLY THE
EC...OVER SOCAL. AGAIN...SERIOUS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND HAVE NOT CHANGED VIRTUALLY ANYTHING IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY ON OUT. TEMPS AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS GUSTY AT
TIMES BUT NOTHING ON THE HORIZON LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY OR ANYTHING. BB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY STORMS WILL AFFECT KELY AND IN
VICINITY OF KEKO THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING INCREASING WINDS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DRY TODAY. MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH RESULTING IN STORMS
TRANSITIONING TO WET THOUGH STILL ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE 15 TO 20 KTS
ALONG WITH MOISTURE AROUND 15 PERCENT OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER LEVELS ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WEST COAST TROUGH IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
SPREADING UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA TO SET OFF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS.

MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY WILL BE THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS LIMITED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL
LEVELS OF SCATTERED DRY STORMS. DRIER AIR WITH LIGHTER WINDS
RETURNS FRIDAY...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER MAINLY ZONE 455.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

89/98/98/89






000
FXUS65 KLKN 152146
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
246 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH AND A STRONG TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GREAT BASIN IS WEDGED BETWEEN A TROUGH
NEARING THE WEST COAST AND A FOUR CORNERS HIGH. MAY SEE SOME HAZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO SMOKE FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OVER MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR ON TUESDAY
WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE GET PULLED UP INTO THE TROUGH ENERGY
AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER NEVADA. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
THE AMOUNT OF QPF IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BOTH GFS
AND NAM SHOWING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DELAYED
UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HUMBOLDT COUNTY WILL BE DRY AND
BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS HAVING
HARD TIME WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF TROPICAL AIRMASS FROM
ODILE. STILL...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
A 300MB JET WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THE EC AND GEM BRINGS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE INTO
EASTERN NV WHILE GFS SHOVES THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO UTAH. HAVE
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY EXCEPT MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NV.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS AGREE WITH PUSHING UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR
SANTA BARBARA. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER EXTREME WHITE PINE
AND EASTERN NYE COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE KEEP
LOW POPS. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. BY
SATURDAY...UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE SRN CA COAST WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THE CWA.
FOR SUNDAY...GFS AND GEM KICKS THE UPPER LOW NE WHICH WOULD BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE THE EC
DEVELOPS A STRONG RIDGE AND KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA
COAST. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS KEEPING LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS ...KEPT SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT
MONDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE
RAINFALL MAY IMPACT KELY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND KEKO AND
KELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP EITHER TODAY OR TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH STORMS TRANSITIONING TO WET
THOUGH STILL ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY. WEST COAST TROUGH IS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE SPREADING UP FROM
SOUTHERN NEVADA TO SET OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN ZONES
THURSDAY...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS. MAIN
CONCERN THURSDAY WILL BE THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS LIMITED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL
LEVELS OF SCATTERED DRY STORMS. DUE TO SLIGHT MODEL DISCREPANCIES
AND THE TREND TO KEEP MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WILL NEED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE
JUST WHERE STORMS WILL SET UP ALONG WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. DRIER WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY...THOUGH MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER MAINLY ZONE 455.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/87/87/96







000
FXUS65 KLKN 152146
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
246 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH AND A STRONG TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GREAT BASIN IS WEDGED BETWEEN A TROUGH
NEARING THE WEST COAST AND A FOUR CORNERS HIGH. MAY SEE SOME HAZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO SMOKE FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OVER MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR ON TUESDAY
WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE GET PULLED UP INTO THE TROUGH ENERGY
AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER NEVADA. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
THE AMOUNT OF QPF IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BOTH GFS
AND NAM SHOWING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DELAYED
UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HUMBOLDT COUNTY WILL BE DRY AND
BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS HAVING
HARD TIME WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF TROPICAL AIRMASS FROM
ODILE. STILL...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
A 300MB JET WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THE EC AND GEM BRINGS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE INTO
EASTERN NV WHILE GFS SHOVES THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO UTAH. HAVE
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY EXCEPT MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NV.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS AGREE WITH PUSHING UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR
SANTA BARBARA. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER EXTREME WHITE PINE
AND EASTERN NYE COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE KEEP
LOW POPS. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. BY
SATURDAY...UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE SRN CA COAST WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THE CWA.
FOR SUNDAY...GFS AND GEM KICKS THE UPPER LOW NE WHICH WOULD BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE THE EC
DEVELOPS A STRONG RIDGE AND KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA
COAST. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS KEEPING LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS ...KEPT SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT
MONDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE
RAINFALL MAY IMPACT KELY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND KEKO AND
KELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP EITHER TODAY OR TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH STORMS TRANSITIONING TO WET
THOUGH STILL ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY. WEST COAST TROUGH IS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE SPREADING UP FROM
SOUTHERN NEVADA TO SET OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN ZONES
THURSDAY...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS. MAIN
CONCERN THURSDAY WILL BE THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS LIMITED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL
LEVELS OF SCATTERED DRY STORMS. DUE TO SLIGHT MODEL DISCREPANCIES
AND THE TREND TO KEEP MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WILL NEED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE
JUST WHERE STORMS WILL SET UP ALONG WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. DRIER WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY...THOUGH MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER MAINLY ZONE 455.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/87/87/96






000
FXUS65 KLKN 150900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A STRONG TROUGH ARRIVES
FROM THE PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S TODAY, WITH A FORECASTED HIGH OF 90 AT THE ELKO AIRPORT.
THIS IS ONLY 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH FOR SEPTEMBER 15TH,
92 SET IN 2000. 00Z NAM MOS DOES FORECAST A RECORD TIE TODAY AT
ELKO, WITH A HIGH OF 92. AFTERNOON CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA, WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NEAR CURRIE TO CHERRY
CREEK TO EUREKA. 00/06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOLATED DRY
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR EUREKA AND PINTO SUMMIT, SO KEPT THAT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LOW, WITH ANY STORMS
LIMITED TO VIRGA AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TUESDAY...HOT FOR MID-SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER NEVADA, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO 588-589 DM.
700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 15C WILL SUPPORT LOWER 90S FOR MOST
VALLEYS. THIS HEAT WILL HELP AN INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOP ALONG A
GABBS-EUREKA-JACKPOT LINE IN THE AFTERNOON. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR, WITH AGAIN AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY
OCCUR FROM NEAR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS TO NEAR EUREKA. NO MEASURABLE
RAINFALL EXPECTED, WITH PW NEAR 0.60 INCH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
VIRGA. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY, WITH 10-20 MPH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA, 15-25 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE
ARE SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES CONCERNING THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL AIR
FROM ODILE WILL FORCE ITSELF INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS PRODUCING A
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR A DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF GREAT BASIN WEATHER AS
HURRICANE ODILE DISINTEGRATES OVER NORTHERN BAJA. MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL BE RELEASED UP UNDER THE WESTERN RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE U.S. COASTLINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN DUE TO THE INITIAL RESISTANCE OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE NOSE OF A 50KT JET
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEVADA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED ONE-HALF INCH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH ODILE BLOWING APART...THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH AND THE NOW SLOW PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL FUEL
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR ONE INCH
WIDESPREAD. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS HITTING ON THIS
AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME NUMEROUS WITH SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. CAPE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY AS
A LOW LEVEL 50 KT JET CRUISES ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
STRIKE THROUGH CALIFORNIA WHICH SHOULD FEED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE ALONG EASTERN NEVADA. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS SOMETIME
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL CEASE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL CONSISTENCY FADES AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE
GFS PROMOTES A MORE CLEAN EXIT OF THE MOISTURE HOWEVER THE ECMWF STALLS
OUT A CLOSED LOW FEATURE EVOLVING FROM THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A CONTINUED TO FEED UNSTABLE AIR UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA IN A
WRAP-AROUND SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEVADA.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL MAY IMPACT KELY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. EXPECT AFTERNOON CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. NOTED 3 DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY ON SUNDAY, WITH MORE ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION
POSSIBLE TODAY FROM NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY TO NEAR EUREKA.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED, WITH PW OF ONLY 0.50-0.60 INCH, AND
INSTABILITY IS WEAK, SO ANY STRIKES WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

TUESDAY...MORE CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NE NEVADA.
INSTABILITY INCREASES A BIT, WITH AN AXIS OF MODEST CAPE AND
LIFTED INDEX FROM NEAR GABBS TO EUREKA TO JACKPOT. PW STILL
LIMITED, NEAR 0.60 INCH, SO ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM WILL
AGAIN BE DRY AND LIMITED IN COVERAGE. LAL STILL LIMITED TO 2.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN FWZ TUESDAY,
AND 15-25 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH, AND INTERACT WITH A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. STRONG CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN FWZ WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/92/92/99






000
FXUS65 KLKN 150900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A STRONG TROUGH ARRIVES
FROM THE PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S TODAY, WITH A FORECASTED HIGH OF 90 AT THE ELKO AIRPORT.
THIS IS ONLY 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH FOR SEPTEMBER 15TH,
92 SET IN 2000. 00Z NAM MOS DOES FORECAST A RECORD TIE TODAY AT
ELKO, WITH A HIGH OF 92. AFTERNOON CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA, WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NEAR CURRIE TO CHERRY
CREEK TO EUREKA. 00/06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOLATED DRY
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR EUREKA AND PINTO SUMMIT, SO KEPT THAT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LOW, WITH ANY STORMS
LIMITED TO VIRGA AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TUESDAY...HOT FOR MID-SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER NEVADA, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO 588-589 DM.
700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 15C WILL SUPPORT LOWER 90S FOR MOST
VALLEYS. THIS HEAT WILL HELP AN INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOP ALONG A
GABBS-EUREKA-JACKPOT LINE IN THE AFTERNOON. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR, WITH AGAIN AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY
OCCUR FROM NEAR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS TO NEAR EUREKA. NO MEASURABLE
RAINFALL EXPECTED, WITH PW NEAR 0.60 INCH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
VIRGA. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY, WITH 10-20 MPH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA, 15-25 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE
ARE SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES CONCERNING THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL AIR
FROM ODILE WILL FORCE ITSELF INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS PRODUCING A
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR A DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF GREAT BASIN WEATHER AS
HURRICANE ODILE DISINTEGRATES OVER NORTHERN BAJA. MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL BE RELEASED UP UNDER THE WESTERN RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE U.S. COASTLINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN DUE TO THE INITIAL RESISTANCE OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE NOSE OF A 50KT JET
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEVADA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED ONE-HALF INCH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH ODILE BLOWING APART...THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH AND THE NOW SLOW PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL FUEL
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR ONE INCH
WIDESPREAD. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS HITTING ON THIS
AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME NUMEROUS WITH SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. CAPE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY AS
A LOW LEVEL 50 KT JET CRUISES ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
STRIKE THROUGH CALIFORNIA WHICH SHOULD FEED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE ALONG EASTERN NEVADA. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS SOMETIME
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL CEASE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL CONSISTENCY FADES AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE
GFS PROMOTES A MORE CLEAN EXIT OF THE MOISTURE HOWEVER THE ECMWF STALLS
OUT A CLOSED LOW FEATURE EVOLVING FROM THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A CONTINUED TO FEED UNSTABLE AIR UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA IN A
WRAP-AROUND SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEVADA.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL MAY IMPACT KELY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. EXPECT AFTERNOON CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. NOTED 3 DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY ON SUNDAY, WITH MORE ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION
POSSIBLE TODAY FROM NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY TO NEAR EUREKA.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED, WITH PW OF ONLY 0.50-0.60 INCH, AND
INSTABILITY IS WEAK, SO ANY STRIKES WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

TUESDAY...MORE CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NE NEVADA.
INSTABILITY INCREASES A BIT, WITH AN AXIS OF MODEST CAPE AND
LIFTED INDEX FROM NEAR GABBS TO EUREKA TO JACKPOT. PW STILL
LIMITED, NEAR 0.60 INCH, SO ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM WILL
AGAIN BE DRY AND LIMITED IN COVERAGE. LAL STILL LIMITED TO 2.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN FWZ TUESDAY,
AND 15-25 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH, AND INTERACT WITH A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. STRONG CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN FWZ WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/92/92/99







000
FXUS65 KLKN 142207
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
307 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE FROM PACIFIC
HURRICANE ODILE WILL INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THROUGH
THE PERIOD THANKS TO A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NV ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP, BUT LEFT ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY PUSH A FOUR CORNERS HIGH EAST TOWARD TEXAS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP ACROSS CA AND NV...VERY MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
ODILE OFF BAJA MEXICO WILL SPREAD UP THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL SET UP ALONG THE LINE FROM ROUGHLY TONOPAH IN CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTHEAST TO JACKPOT ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS
OVER THIS AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO RISE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN EUREKA COUNTY...AND
NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY WERE GFS PLACES A HALF INCH OF RAIN AND
THE ECMWF NOW HAS ONE INCH OVER A 12 HOUR STRETCH. IN ADDITION TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS ON THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH GFS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP TO 450J/KG OF MU CAPE OVER SE
ELKO COUNTY...ALONG WITH 50KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AND LIFTED
INDICES NEAR -3C. MODEL CONSISTENCY DIMINISHES THURSDAY NIGHT
ON...HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS ARE TO KEEP SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA INTO AT
LEAST FRIDAY. ECMWF MODEL TRIES TO KEEP THE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER CENTRAL CA AND NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS
EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS INCREASE
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO IMPACT
KTPH...HOWEVER KELY HAS AROUND A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF TS BY THE
MID-EVENING HOURS MONDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NV MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NV
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP, BUT IF THEY DO THEY WILL BE DRY AND CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NV WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE ON
THURSDAY BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
EASTERN NV, SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96/91






000
FXUS65 KLKN 142207
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
307 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE FROM PACIFIC
HURRICANE ODILE WILL INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THROUGH
THE PERIOD THANKS TO A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NV
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NV ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP, BUT LEFT ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY PUSH A FOUR CORNERS HIGH EAST TOWARD TEXAS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP ACROSS CA AND NV...VERY MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
ODILE OFF BAJA MEXICO WILL SPREAD UP THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL SET UP ALONG THE LINE FROM ROUGHLY TONOPAH IN CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTHEAST TO JACKPOT ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS
OVER THIS AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO RISE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN EUREKA COUNTY...AND
NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY WERE GFS PLACES A HALF INCH OF RAIN AND
THE ECMWF NOW HAS ONE INCH OVER A 12 HOUR STRETCH. IN ADDITION TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS ON THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH GFS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP TO 450J/KG OF MU CAPE OVER SE
ELKO COUNTY...ALONG WITH 50KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AND LIFTED
INDICES NEAR -3C. MODEL CONSISTENCY DIMINISHES THURSDAY NIGHT
ON...HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS ARE TO KEEP SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA INTO AT
LEAST FRIDAY. ECMWF MODEL TRIES TO KEEP THE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER CENTRAL CA AND NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS
EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS INCREASE
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO IMPACT
KTPH...HOWEVER KELY HAS AROUND A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF TS BY THE
MID-EVENING HOURS MONDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NV MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NV
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP, BUT IF THEY DO THEY WILL BE DRY AND CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NV WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE ON
THURSDAY BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
EASTERN NV, SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96/91







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