000
FXUS65 KLKN 191548
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
848 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG THE IDAHO AND
OREGON BORDERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FURTHER
SOUTH. MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.UPDATE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS STARTED MUCH EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED
OVER NORTHERN NV. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
LANDER AND WESTERN ELKO COUNTY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 344 AM /
SYNOPSIS...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG THE IDAHO AND OREGON
BORDERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FURTHER
SOUTH. MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS AGREE ON THE DETAILS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS JUST A TAD FASTER ON THE PROGRESSION
OF THE 500 MB PACIFIC LOW BY LATE THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER
MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA TODAY AND 70S OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA. 10-15 DEGREE WARM UP ON THURSDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
PROBLEM O` THE DAY IS LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING A
RANGE OF ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WHICH IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLING GIVEN THAT
THIS RANGE STRADDLES FREEZING IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA.
PRESENCE AND PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE LADEN SHORT WAVES WILL CONTROL
THE ACTUAL MIN TEMPS AND DURATION OF THE MINS. BELIEVE THAT TEMPS
MAY SPIKE DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OR RIGHT AT FREEZING IN MOST
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEYS FOR A SHORT DURATION AS CLOUDS MOVE OUT
AND THEN RECOVER AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. IN CENTRAL NEVADA...SOME COLD
PRONE VALLEYS WILL SPIKE DOWN TO LOW TO MID 30S FOR A SHORT TIME FOR
SAME REASONS. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE
PHENOMENON RATHER THAN A FREEZE WARNING BECAUSE OF THE SHORT
DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM IN NORTHERN
NEVADA...SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWING SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST CALI AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST NEVADA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT SEE LIKELIES...MORE LIKE HIGH
CHANCE...OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. SO HAVE LOWERED THEM A HAIR. SNOW
LEVELS DO DROP TO THE 8000 FOOT RANGE IN A FEW SELECT RANGES IN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES...MAINLY THE INDEPENDENCE...SANTA
ROSA...AND JARBIDGE AREAS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH AND CERTAINLY NOT ON
HIGHWAYS OR POPULATED VALLEYS...BUT A BEAUTIFUL MID JUNE DUSTING
COULD MAKE SOME GOOD PHOTO OPS.
DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN LATER THURSDAY ALONG WITH RESIDUAL
CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP.
GUSTY WINDS AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSES TODAY AND THEN AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN SPEEDS BUT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THEM WEST TO
NORTHWEST. BB
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS
OUT TRANQUIL...BUT THEN HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET WEATHER. WE
START OUT WITH A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH. ENERGY APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE IDAHO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE...SO RIGHT NOW HAVE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A SHOWER IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PLACES IN THE 30S OR LOW 40S.
THAT SYSTEM MOVES AWAY QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY AND SUNNY SATURDAY.
CONSIDERING THE PASSING TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT
COOLER AND NUDGE FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SOMEWHAT.
RIDGE AXIS PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MORE DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
LIKELY TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. ITS GETTING A BIT LATE IN THE YEAR FOR THIS
TO AFFECT OUR CWA BUT NOT QUITE IMPOSSIBLE. STILL DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF IMPULSES AND SHORTWAVES...BUT FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE 0Z GUIDANCE THAT A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A SURGE
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TIMING WILL NOT BE HAD FOR A FEW DAYS BUT RIGHT NOW DECENT CHANCE OF
PRECIP AT LEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY THEN MAY COOL A BIT
MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE FLOWS IN.
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS LATER NEXT WEEK AS TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
MOISTURE AND WHETHER IT MAY GENERATE FURTHER SHOWERS INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST MAINLY DRY. RCM
AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN ISSUE IS
GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME GUSTS
MAY EXCEED 30 KNOTS. RCM
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT RH`S MUCH HIGHER
WITH COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A 7-10 DEGREE WARM UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/97
000
FXUS65 KLKN 191044
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
344 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG THE IDAHO AND OREGON
BORDERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FURTHER
SOUTH. MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS AGREE ON THE DETAILS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS JUST A TAD FASTER ON THE PROGRESSION
OF THE 500 MB PACIFIC LOW BY LATE THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER
MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA TODAY AND 70S OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA. 10-15 DEGREE WARM UP ON THURSDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
PROBLEM O` THE DAY IS LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING A
RANGE OF ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WHICH IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLING GIVEN THAT
THIS RANGE STRADDLES FREEZING IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA.
PRESENCE AND PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE LADEN SHORT WAVES WILL CONTROL
THE ACTUAL MIN TEMPS AND DURATION OF THE MINS. BELIEVE THAT TEMPS
MAY SPIKE DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OR RIGHT AT FREEZING IN MOST
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEYS FOR A SHORT DURATION AS CLOUDS MOVE OUT
AND THEN RECOVER AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. IN CENTRAL NEVADA...SOME COLD
PRONE VALLEYS WILL SPIKE DOWN TO LOW TO MID 30S FOR A SHORT TIME FOR
SAME REASONS. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE
PHENOMENON RATHER THAN A FREEZE WARNING BECAUSE OF THE SHORT
DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM IN NORTHERN
NEVADA...SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWING SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST CALI AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST NEVADA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT SEE LIKELIES...MORE LIKE HIGH
CHANCE...OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. SO HAVE LOWERED THEM A HAIR. SNOW
LEVELS DO DROP TO THE 8000 FOOT RANGE IN A FEW SELECT RANGES IN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES...MAINLY THE INDEPENDENCE...SANTA
ROSA...AND JARBIDGE AREAS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH AND CERTAINLY NOT ON
HIGHWAYS OR POPULATED VALLEYS...BUT A BEAUTIFUL MID JUNE DUSTING
COULD MAKE SOME GOOD PHOTO OPS.
DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN LATER THURSDAY ALONG WITH RESIDUAL
CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP.
GUSTY WINDS AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSES TODAY AND THEN AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN SPEEDS BUT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THEM WEST TO
NORTHWEST. BB
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS
OUT TRANQUIL...BUT THEN HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET WEATHER. WE
START OUT WITH A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH. ENERGY APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE IDAHO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE...SO RIGHT NOW HAVE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A SHOWER IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PLACES IN THE 30S OR LOW 40S.
THAT SYSTEM MOVES AWAY QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY AND SUNNY SATURDAY.
CONSIDERING THE PASSING TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT
COOLER AND NUDGE FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SOMEWHAT.
RIDGE AXIS PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MORE DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
LIKELY TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. ITS GETTING A BIT LATE IN THE YEAR FOR THIS
TO AFFECT OUR CWA BUT NOT QUITE IMPOSSIBLE. STILL DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF IMPULSES AND SHORTWAVES...BUT FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE 0Z GUIDANCE THAT A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A SURGE
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TIMING WILL NOT BE HAD FOR A FEW DAYS BUT RIGHT NOW DECENT CHANCE OF
PRECIP AT LEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY THEN MAY COOL A BIT
MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE FLOWS IN.
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS LATER NEXT WEEK AS TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
MOISTURE AND WHETHER IT MAY GENERATE FURTHER SHOWERS INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST MAINLY DRY. RCM
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN ISSUE IS
GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME GUSTS
MAY EXCEED 30 KNOTS. RCM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT RH`S MUCH HIGHER
WITH COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A 7-10 DEGREE WARM UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
98/93/93/98
000
FXUS65 KLKN 190402 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
902 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SILVER STATE
USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY FURTHER SOUTH. PLEASANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF COOLING TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RECOVER ALONG WITH DECREASING WIND GUSTS
HAS RESULTED IN IMPROVED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 337 PM /
SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SILVER STATE
TONIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TOMORROW...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY FURTHER
SOUTH. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...USHERING A MODERATED PACIFIC AIRMASS.
THE 500MB PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HEIGHTS DROPPING DOWN TO 558DAM OVER THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL BE A VERY COOL AIRMASS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH. 700-500MB R.H.
INCREASES TO 70% NORTH OF I-80...THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE COLD AIR ALOFT TO CREATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT THE LOW EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE PWAT GRADIENT WILL BE VERY SHARP WITH
THE I-80 CORRIDOR BEGIN THE DIVIDING LINE...AS PWAT VALUES ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BARELY REACH .15". THUS IT WILL REMAIN
DRY...WITH GUSTY COOL WESTERLY WINDS...ALLOWING WINDS GUSTS TO
REACH NEAR 30MPH. RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END TOMORROW EVENING
WAS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH 700MB TEMPS
AROUND -2C MOST PLACES WILL FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE IF A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG RANGE
MODELS ONCE AGAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
ADDITION RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS VERY GOOD...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IN THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER...TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR TROF ASSOCIATED WILL THE LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD SPELL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR LOW RH AND HIGH WINDS. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE
BEGINS INCREASING LATE SUNDAY OVER HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES...CONTINUING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN FACT..PWATS/K APPROACH
1 INCH/30 IN WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GOOD SO WENT AHEAD
AND JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
SPREADS FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY TUESDAY. COMBINED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN THIS COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN FOR DRY LIGHTNING AS PWATS AND K REMAIN BELOW .75/30.
ELSEWHERE...WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE FAIRLY WARM.
AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY REDUCTION IS
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...TURB WILL BE AN ISSUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA..ESPECIALLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MTN RANGES.
FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MOST OF FWZ 470
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FIRE ZONES...BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. WAS CLOSELY LOOKING AT FWZ 455 FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
WIND/R.H. VALUES BECOMING CLOSE TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE ZONE.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS A THIS TIME.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
89/85/89
000
FXUS65 KLKN 182237
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
337 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SILVER STATE
TONIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TOMORROW...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY FURTHER
SOUTH. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...USHERING A MODERATED PACIFIC AIRMASS.
THE 500MB PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HEIGHTS DROPPING DOWN TO 558DAM OVER THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL BE A VERY COOL AIRMASS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH. 700-500MB R.H.
INCREASES TO 70% NORTH OF I-80...THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE COLD AIR ALOFT TO CREATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT THE LOW EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE PWAT GRADIENT WILL BE VERY SHARP WITH
THE I-80 CORRIDOR BEGIN THE DIVIDING LINE...AS PWAT VALUES ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BARELY REACH .15". THUS IT WILL REMAIN
DRY...WITH GUSTY COOL WESTERLY WINDS...ALLOWING WINDS GUSTS TO
REACH NEAR 30MPH. RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END TOMORROW EVENING
WAS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH 700MB TEMPS
AROUND -2C MOST PLACES WILL FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE IF A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG RANGE
MODELS ONCE AGAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
ADDITION RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS VERY GOOD...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IN THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER...TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR TROF ASSOCIATED WILL THE LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD SPELL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR LOW RH AND HIGH WINDS. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE
BEGINS INCREASING LATE SUNDAY OVER HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES...CONTINUING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN FACT..PWATS/K APPROACH
1 INCH/30 IN WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GOOD SO WENT AHEAD
AND JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
SPREADS FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY TUESDAY. COMBINED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN THIS COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN FOR DRY LIGHTNING AS PWATS AND K REMAIN BELOW .75/30.
ELSEWHERE...WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE FAIRLY WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY REDUCTION IS
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...TURB WILL BE AN ISSUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA..ESPECIALLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MTN RANGES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL REALLY BEGIN TO CRANK THIS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO
ENTER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. MOST AREAS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING RED
FLAG CONDITIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS
WILL R.H. VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WINDS GUSTING IN THE
30MPH ZONE. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 9PM WITH R.H.
VALUES CLIMBING AS TEMPS COOL. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MOST
OF FWZ 470 THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH WETTING
RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FIRE ZONES...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. WAS CLOSELY LOOKING AT FWZ 455 FOR
TOMORROW WITH WIND/R.H. VALUES BECOMING CLOSE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...BUT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30MPH FOR MOST
OF THE ZONE. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS A THIS TIME.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
95/85/85/95
000
FXUS65 KLKN 180930
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...WINDY AND WARM ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR WILL CREATE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL INVADE NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING
AND SPINNING OVER THE NE PACIFIC FOR DAYS IS FINALLY INCHING
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. A CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIRMASS PERSIST ACROSS
NEVADA, WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS NW OF WINNEMUCCA, CLOSEST TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.
TODAY...WINDY AND WARM. SW WINDS WILL PICK UP RAPIDLY STARTING
LATE THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SUNSET, WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE THE TIGHTEST. SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40-45 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCALES. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE WHITE PINE COUNTY WHERE 700 MB WINDS
REACH 30 KTS LATE TODAY. WINDS IN WHITE PINE COUNTY WILL FLIRT
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES, WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH. WILL PASS
THIS CONCERN ON TO THE DAY SHIFT. BELIEVE 00Z NAM IS HANDLING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN THE BEST THIS AFTERNOON, PROGGING A
992 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR WENDOVER/MONTELLO 5-8 PM. IT IS DURING
THESE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS IN WHICH GUSTS NEAR
40 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY, AND AREAS OF DUST WILL ARRIVE FROM WESTERN
NEVADA. MAINTAINED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS TO MATCH WFO
RENO.
STRONG FORCING ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ACTS
ON A VERY DRY, MOISTURE-STARVED AIRMASS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 5 PM. KEPT ALL POP GRIDS BELOW 15% THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A RENEGADE DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF N/NE NEVADA, BUT WITH VERY LITTLE HOPE OF RAIN DROPS
SURVIVING THEIR TRIP TO THE GROUND, KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
STILL QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PREFRONTAL EFFECTS WARMING
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. DRY COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES NW NEVADA
DURING THE MORNING, AND EXITS NE NEVADA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRAMATICALLY COOLER PACIFIC AIR TO POUR IN, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FALLING SOME 20 DEGREES
COMPARED TO TUESDAY`S READINGS. QUITE REFRESHING, WITH ALL AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 REMAINING IN THE 60S. W/SW WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE STRONG AND GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ELKO COUNTY
WHERE GUSTS WILL AGAIN REACH 40 MPH AT TIMES.
INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY, CONFINED TO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND NW ELKO
COUNTY. MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE ANY NEEDED RAINFALL. HOWEVER, A
FEW SELECT LOCATIONS ALONG A DENIO-MCDERMITT-OWYHEE-JARBIDGE LINE
SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS, CLOSEST TO THE
SHORTWAVE`S TRACK. TURNER
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW MINOR
DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT THEY ARE VERY MINOR. THEREFORE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST.
BIGGEST ISSUE WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE WHETHER WINDS AND RH
WILL BE HIGH AND LOW ENOUGH RESPECTIVELY TO WARRANT FIRE WX WATCHES
OR RED FLAG WARNINGS DURING THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR INCREASED WIND SPEEDS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE STATE, MITIGATING
FACTOR WILL BE THE RATHER DRAMATIC COOL DOWN WITH THE MAJOR (FOR
SUMMER) LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AIR,
AND DESPITE BEING DRY, WILL RAISE RH VALUES. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP
DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS COULD OCCUR OVER
RIDGES WHICH MIGHT...REPEAT MIGHT...PRODUCE SOME DROPS OF RAIN OR
EVEN A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...DON`T HOLD YOUR BREATH. BB
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME CU BUILD UPS IN THE NORTH.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST IN BETWEEN TAF SITES. BEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY WILL BE KWMC AND KEKO. WINDS REDUCE GRADUALLY
OVERNIGHT. BB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FWZ,
STARTING AT 11 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 9 PM. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE SUNSET
/ROUGHLY 4-8 PM/. EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE NEAR 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. WINDS ACROSS FWZ 455 /WHITE PINE COUNTY/ WILL
BE NOTABLY STRONGER, AVERAGING 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH.
VERY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MIN RH FALLING TO
4-8%. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW RH WILL MAKE FIRES VERY
DIFFICULT TO CONTROL, SHOULD AN IGNITION OCCUR. FIRE MANAGERS AND
CREWS IN THE FIELD ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
CUMULUS BUILDUPS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/NE NEVADA. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SCARCE TO SUPPORT DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. VIRGA SHAFTS BENEATH PASSING CUMULUS MAY CREATE
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FIRE DISTRICT TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WHERE
MAX TEMPS WILL FALL SOME 20 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY`S
READINGS. W/SW WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, AGAIN
AVERAGING 20-30 MPH. HOWEVER, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE
MIN RH ABOVE THE 15% CRITICAL THRESHOLD ACROSS THESE FWZ, SO RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. TURNER
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN
ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
99/98/98/99
000
FXUS65 KLKN 172134
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
234 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY, THEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON PRETTY MUCH WHERE MODELS
INDICATED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER AIRMASS
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHWEST
NV LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED BUT
WITH STRONG DYNAMICS FROM SHORT WAVE AND SOME INSTABILITY COULD
BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 CENTRAL NV. BREEZY TO WINDY ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN TUESDAY, GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH, AND MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. TROF WITH
ASSOCIATED 500MB LOW POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL EXTEND OVER
MOST OF THE CWA. AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE..A MAINLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW
RESIDES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS INDICATE A
WEAK WAVE MOVE WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2 ROTATES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED SO JUST EXPECT
A FEW BUILDUPS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS AREA WIDE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL
SAT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY INCREASE MONDAY...SO ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER
TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY AFTERNOON BUILDUPS. IN ADDITION...INCREASED
WINDS IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR WHATS LEFT OF IT WILL ENTER
HUMBOLDT COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT. EC AND DGEX ADVERTISE A SLIGHTLY MORE
ROBUST NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATED FRONTAL SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...WHICH
SAGS A WEAKER BOUNDARY INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. EITHER
WAY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. TO EARLY
TO SAY IF THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NV BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS AIRMASS
TOO DRY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAVE
UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR NORTH NEAR THE OREGON/ID BORDER LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NV. MIH RH MAY DIP BELOW 15 PCT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NV BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR 3 HOURS. ACROSS CENTRAL
NV MIN RH WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT WIND GUST WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN UNER 30 MPH. THEREFORE RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
91/85/85/91
000
FXUS65 KLKN 170900
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR NEVADA TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PASS TUESDAY NIGHT...USHERING COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY. CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN OFF THE PAC NW COAST THIS MORNING, WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GREAT BASIN.
TODAY...EXPECTING ESSENTIALLY AN INSTANT REPLAY OF SUNDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NE NEVADA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TOO SCARCE TO SUPPORT EVEN DRY
CONVECTION. QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S COMMON. NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL
PLENTY WARM. SW BREEZES WILL BEHAVE THEMSELVES TODAY, AVERAGING
ONLY 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY...LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD,
ARRIVING ON THE PAC NW COAST BY AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE, MOST NOTABLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. 00Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR WENDOVER
TUESDAY EVENING, AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH
ARRIVES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PLENTY OF WIND WILL RESULT, WITH
SW WINDS AVERAGING 15-30 MPH. A WARM DRY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL ENCOURAGE FREQUENTS GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE, AGAIN MOST
LIKELY IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SUNSET ON TUESDAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST
LOCALES. STILL, AREAS OF DUST WILL LIKELY BE LOFTED OVER WESTERN
NEVADA BY THESE PREFRONTAL SW WINDS, AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF
DUST TUESDAY EVENING TO MATCH WFO RENO. STILL QUITE WARM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER 80S COMMON, BEFORE THE DRY COLD FRONT
ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. TURNER
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS STILL IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. TROF OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH THE LOW CENTER OVER OREGON CONTINUES TO BRING DRY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
EXTREME NW CORNER OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY WHICH POSSIBLY MIGHT SEE A
SHOWER. LATEST MODEL RUNS SLOWER WITH PUSHING THE UPPER LOW
EASTWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL REALLY NO DIFFERENCE FOR THE
CWA EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS. UPPER FLOW MAINLY
WESTERLY AND REMAINS DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY KEEPING THE CWA A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RIDGE BUILDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOOKS EVEN WARMER NEXT MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES EXCEPTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME...GFS PLACES THERMAL TROF OVER NEVADA
WITH LIS NEAR ZERO. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LIMITED...WOULD BE LIKE TRYING TO SQUEEZE WATER FROM A TURNIP. JH
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER VERY WARM, VERY DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FIRE DISTRICT TODAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WILL
ONCE AGAIN DRIVE MIN RH DOWN TO 5-10%. SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-20
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS NW NEVADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY
EVENING. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AVERAGING 15-30 MPH. DRY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ENCOURAGE NUMEROUS GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH,
ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
SUNSET. COUPLED WITH VERY DRY MIN RH OF ONCE AGAIN 5-10%,
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW, ALLOWING THE DAY SHIFT TO COORDINATE WITH
THE GACC TODAY AND DETERMINE SPECIFIC RED FLAG WARNING UPGRADES.
FIRE MANAGERS AND CREWS IN THE FIELD SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON
TUESDAY.
DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
MIN RH TO NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AT LEAST, ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING TREND AND
CONTINUED LOW MIN RH EACH DAY. TURNER
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
99/87/87/99
000
FXUS65 KLKN 162142
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
242 PM PDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN WITH DRY AND NEARLY UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A MAINLY DRY COLD THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK
BEFORE WARMING BACKUP BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
PRETTY MUCH WHERE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WOULD BE. HOWEVER DON`T EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AS AIRMASS STILL TOO DRY. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME PICTURE ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY AS GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST.
EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA. TEMPERATURE
WISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY THEN ABOUT THE SAME ON
TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...THEREFORE MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES. TROF
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE WEST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE CWA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE ID/NV BORDER WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AFTERNOON. MODELS
PUSH THE UPPER LOW CENTER EAST INTO MONTANA THURSDAY WHICH MEANS
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK BY SATURDAY WHICH
MEANS A RETURN TO DRY AND STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...MODELS DO DIVERGE ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH...WHERE THE GFS IS PLACING IT IN NORTHERN
ID...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO CANADA.
THE END RESULT IS THAT THE GFS TRIES TO SWING A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND DGEX KEEP A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD. IN THE END...THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT
HIGH TEMP AND SURFACE WIND DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME TO ADJUST THE GRIDS THAT FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS AIRMASS
REMAINS TOO DRY. ABOUT THE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WINDS
WILL REALLY CRANK UP ON TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
FIRE ZONES 467 AND 468. THIS COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH DROPPING AS
LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA. HOWEVER COOLER AIR WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND MIN RH
ACROSS FIRE ZONES 467 AND 468 LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
FURTHER EAST ACROSS ZONES 469 AND 470 MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15%
SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE
ZONES, IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO. AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXPAND WATCH OR WARNING IN
TIME TO INCLUDE WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
91/85/85/91
|
