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000
FXUS65 KLKN 211108 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
408 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF AREA. WILL DROP VCSH FROM KWMC AND DROP VCTS FROM KEKO. KEEPING
VCSH AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z WITH TEMPO VRB GUSTY WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 237 AM /


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING,
WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EXPECTED AREAS, SUCH AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS VERY STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNRISE, USHERING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO NEVADA. SHORTWAVE EJECTS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MODELS INDICATING VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, AND
REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY FOR ALL ZONES AFTER NOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. A COOL REALITY CHECK IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY`S READINGS. A W/NW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
BRISK CHANGE.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOST VALLEYS FALLING WELL INTO THE
20S. HOW COLD WE GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
COLDEST MET AND MILDER MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MID 20S EXPECTED AT
ELKO/SPRING CREEK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY AS SW FLOW
RETURNS TO NEVADA. MOST LOCALES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. SW BREEZES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 MPH, INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-20 MPH ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL BE
SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE FEED
WILL JUST CLIP N/NW NEVADA WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.  BT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROF OFFSHORE
DEEPENS AND TRIES TO TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. IT DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN GETTING VERY NEGATIVE BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE WITH
JUST OVER-THE-SIERRA-CREST-DRY-FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH MINIMAL EFFECT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE SMALL TO
INSIGNIFICANT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOWER POST FRONTAL SPEEDS...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...AND 50 IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SNOW PROCESSES. STILL...SNOW
LEVELS MAY DROP TO LOWER THAN 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANY PLACE THAT GETS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ANYWAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS GETTING UP TO FOUR INCHES TOTAL. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT...JUST WANT OUTDOOR WORKERS AND RECREATORS
TO BE AWARE. SLOW WARMING AND RAPID WARMING OCCUR AFTER MONDAY.  BB

AVIATION...VFR AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCT DECKS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL MAY OCCUR AT KEKO BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY FROM VCSH. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT THEM AT FIELDS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WEST AND DECREASE TUESDAY NEAR SUNSET. CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES
RAPIDLY AFTER TUESDAY 18Z AT KWMC AND KEKO. ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT KELY AND KTPH.  BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99







000
FXUS65 KLKN 211108 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
408 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF AREA. WILL DROP VCSH FROM KWMC AND DROP VCTS FROM KEKO. KEEPING
VCSH AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z WITH TEMPO VRB GUSTY WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 237 AM /


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING,
WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EXPECTED AREAS, SUCH AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS VERY STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNRISE, USHERING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO NEVADA. SHORTWAVE EJECTS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MODELS INDICATING VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, AND
REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY FOR ALL ZONES AFTER NOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. A COOL REALITY CHECK IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY`S READINGS. A W/NW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
BRISK CHANGE.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOST VALLEYS FALLING WELL INTO THE
20S. HOW COLD WE GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
COLDEST MET AND MILDER MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MID 20S EXPECTED AT
ELKO/SPRING CREEK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY AS SW FLOW
RETURNS TO NEVADA. MOST LOCALES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. SW BREEZES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 MPH, INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-20 MPH ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL BE
SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE FEED
WILL JUST CLIP N/NW NEVADA WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.  BT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROF OFFSHORE
DEEPENS AND TRIES TO TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. IT DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN GETTING VERY NEGATIVE BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE WITH
JUST OVER-THE-SIERRA-CREST-DRY-FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH MINIMAL EFFECT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE SMALL TO
INSIGNIFICANT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOWER POST FRONTAL SPEEDS...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...AND 50 IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SNOW PROCESSES. STILL...SNOW
LEVELS MAY DROP TO LOWER THAN 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANY PLACE THAT GETS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ANYWAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS GETTING UP TO FOUR INCHES TOTAL. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT...JUST WANT OUTDOOR WORKERS AND RECREATORS
TO BE AWARE. SLOW WARMING AND RAPID WARMING OCCUR AFTER MONDAY.  BB

AVIATION...VFR AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCT DECKS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL MAY OCCUR AT KEKO BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY FROM VCSH. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT THEM AT FIELDS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WEST AND DECREASE TUESDAY NEAR SUNSET. CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES
RAPIDLY AFTER TUESDAY 18Z AT KWMC AND KEKO. ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT KELY AND KTPH.  BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS65 KLKN 211108 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
408 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF AREA. WILL DROP VCSH FROM KWMC AND DROP VCTS FROM KEKO. KEEPING
VCSH AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z WITH TEMPO VRB GUSTY WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 237 AM /


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING,
WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EXPECTED AREAS, SUCH AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS VERY STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNRISE, USHERING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO NEVADA. SHORTWAVE EJECTS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MODELS INDICATING VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, AND
REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY FOR ALL ZONES AFTER NOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. A COOL REALITY CHECK IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY`S READINGS. A W/NW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
BRISK CHANGE.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOST VALLEYS FALLING WELL INTO THE
20S. HOW COLD WE GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
COLDEST MET AND MILDER MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MID 20S EXPECTED AT
ELKO/SPRING CREEK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY AS SW FLOW
RETURNS TO NEVADA. MOST LOCALES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. SW BREEZES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 MPH, INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-20 MPH ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL BE
SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE FEED
WILL JUST CLIP N/NW NEVADA WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.  BT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROF OFFSHORE
DEEPENS AND TRIES TO TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. IT DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN GETTING VERY NEGATIVE BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE WITH
JUST OVER-THE-SIERRA-CREST-DRY-FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH MINIMAL EFFECT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE SMALL TO
INSIGNIFICANT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOWER POST FRONTAL SPEEDS...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...AND 50 IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SNOW PROCESSES. STILL...SNOW
LEVELS MAY DROP TO LOWER THAN 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANY PLACE THAT GETS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ANYWAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS GETTING UP TO FOUR INCHES TOTAL. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT...JUST WANT OUTDOOR WORKERS AND RECREATORS
TO BE AWARE. SLOW WARMING AND RAPID WARMING OCCUR AFTER MONDAY.  BB

AVIATION...VFR AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCT DECKS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL MAY OCCUR AT KEKO BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY FROM VCSH. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT THEM AT FIELDS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WEST AND DECREASE TUESDAY NEAR SUNSET. CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES
RAPIDLY AFTER TUESDAY 18Z AT KWMC AND KEKO. ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT KELY AND KTPH.  BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99







000
FXUS65 KLKN 210937
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
237 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING,
WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EXPECTED AREAS, SUCH AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS VERY STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNRISE, USHERING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO NEVADA. SHORTWAVE EJECTS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MODELS INDICATING VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, AND
REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY FOR ALL ZONES AFTER NOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. A COOL REALITY CHECK IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY`S READINGS. A W/NW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
BRISK CHANGE.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOST VALLEYS FALLING WELL INTO THE
20S. HOW COLD WE GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
COLDEST MET AND MILDER MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MID 20S EXPECTED AT
ELKO/SPRING CREEK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY AS SW FLOW
RETURNS TO NEVADA. MOST LOCALES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. SW BREEZES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 MPH, INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-20 MPH ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL BE
SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE FEED
WILL JUST CLIP N/NW NEVADA WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.  BT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROF OFFSHORE
DEEPENS AND TRIES TO TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. IT DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN GETTING VERY NEGATIVE BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE WITH
JUST OVER-THE-SIERRA-CREST-DRY-FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH MINIMAL EFFECT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE SMALL TO
INSIGNIFICANT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOWER POST FRONTAL SPEEDS...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...AND 50 IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SNOW PROCESSES. STILL...SNOW
LEVELS MAY DROP TO LOWER THAN 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANY PLACE THAT GETS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ANYWAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS GETTING UP TO FOUR INCHES TOTAL. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT...JUST WANT OUTDOOR WORKERS AND RECREATORS
TO BE AWARE. SLOW WARMING AND RAPID WARMING OCCUR AFTER MONDAY.  BB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCT DECKS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL MAY OCCUR AT KEKO BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY FROM VCSH. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT THEM AT FIELDS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WEST AND DECREASE TUESDAY NEAR SUNSET. CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES
RAPIDLY AFTER TUESDAY 18Z AT KWMC AND KEKO. ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT KELY AND KTPH.  BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98









000
FXUS65 KLKN 210937
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
237 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING,
WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EXPECTED AREAS, SUCH AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS VERY STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNRISE, USHERING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO NEVADA. SHORTWAVE EJECTS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MODELS INDICATING VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, AND
REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY FOR ALL ZONES AFTER NOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. A COOL REALITY CHECK IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY`S READINGS. A W/NW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
BRISK CHANGE.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOST VALLEYS FALLING WELL INTO THE
20S. HOW COLD WE GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
COLDEST MET AND MILDER MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MID 20S EXPECTED AT
ELKO/SPRING CREEK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY AS SW FLOW
RETURNS TO NEVADA. MOST LOCALES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. SW BREEZES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 MPH, INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-20 MPH ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL BE
SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE FEED
WILL JUST CLIP N/NW NEVADA WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.  BT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROF OFFSHORE
DEEPENS AND TRIES TO TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. IT DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN GETTING VERY NEGATIVE BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE WITH
JUST OVER-THE-SIERRA-CREST-DRY-FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH MINIMAL EFFECT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE SMALL TO
INSIGNIFICANT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOWER POST FRONTAL SPEEDS...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...AND 50 IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SNOW PROCESSES. STILL...SNOW
LEVELS MAY DROP TO LOWER THAN 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANY PLACE THAT GETS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ANYWAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS GETTING UP TO FOUR INCHES TOTAL. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT...JUST WANT OUTDOOR WORKERS AND RECREATORS
TO BE AWARE. SLOW WARMING AND RAPID WARMING OCCUR AFTER MONDAY.  BB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCT DECKS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL MAY OCCUR AT KEKO BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY FROM VCSH. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT THEM AT FIELDS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WEST AND DECREASE TUESDAY NEAR SUNSET. CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES
RAPIDLY AFTER TUESDAY 18Z AT KWMC AND KEKO. ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT KELY AND KTPH.  BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98








000
FXUS65 KLKN 202239
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
339 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY TO NORTHERN NEVADA, ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL NV TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO NRN NV WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO 6500-7000 FEET NORTH LATER
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7500 FEET WHERE 1-2 INCHES COULD FALL IN PLACES. SHORT WAVE
RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING ACROSS ACROSS THE MTNS OF FAR NORTHEAST NV. DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS. LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL PUSH UPPER RIDGE
TOWARDS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
BRUSH FAR NORTHWEST NV WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE GREAT BASIN WEDGED BETWEEN
A WEST COAST TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. KEPT
POPS OF GENERALLY 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE PRECIP EAST TO THE SANTA ROSA MTS.
ECMWF MODEL HOWEVER KEEPS MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO OUR
SE...RESULTING IN THE TROUGH REMAINING FURTHER WEST...WITH HUMBOLDT
COUNTY DRY UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL BRING THE TROUGH
AXIS INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER EC AND GEM
MODELS BOTH SPLIT/STRETCH THE AXIS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CA/NV WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND PRECIP FURTHER NORTH IN A
MORE PROGRESSIVE PASSAGE. AS SUCH...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF PRECIP OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WENT WITH CLIMO POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALL MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH BRIEF DRYING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS AND GEM BOTH BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRYING BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHTER WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96







000
FXUS65 KLKN 202239
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
339 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY TO NORTHERN NEVADA, ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO PUSH
ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL NV TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO NRN NV WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO 6500-7000 FEET NORTH LATER
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7500 FEET WHERE 1-2 INCHES COULD FALL IN PLACES. SHORT WAVE
RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING ACROSS ACROSS THE MTNS OF FAR NORTHEAST NV. DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS. LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL PUSH UPPER RIDGE
TOWARDS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
BRUSH FAR NORTHWEST NV WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE GREAT BASIN WEDGED BETWEEN
A WEST COAST TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. KEPT
POPS OF GENERALLY 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE PRECIP EAST TO THE SANTA ROSA MTS.
ECMWF MODEL HOWEVER KEEPS MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO OUR
SE...RESULTING IN THE TROUGH REMAINING FURTHER WEST...WITH HUMBOLDT
COUNTY DRY UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL BRING THE TROUGH
AXIS INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER EC AND GEM
MODELS BOTH SPLIT/STRETCH THE AXIS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CA/NV WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND PRECIP FURTHER NORTH IN A
MORE PROGRESSIVE PASSAGE. AS SUCH...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF PRECIP OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WENT WITH CLIMO POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALL MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH BRIEF DRYING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS AND GEM BOTH BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRYING BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHTER WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96






000
FXUS65 KLKN 200900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN OCTOBER REALITY
CHECK TO NORTHERN NEVADA...WITH RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ONCE AGAIN REVEALS CLEAR AND QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS NEVADA THIS MORNING, WHILE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
IS CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF EUREKA, CALIFORNIA.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CHANGE NEVADA WEATHER RATHER DRAMATICALLY ON
TUESDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY TO WINDY AND WARM. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 700 MB TEMPS
AND THICKNESS TODAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY, AS SUCH TODAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSELY MIRROR THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AFTER NOON, WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30
MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL OCCUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A WIND ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HIGH
CONFIDENCE NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
ARRIVE ON THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AROUND 5 PM, BUT
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT QUICKLY ACROSS NW NEVADA
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE SHARP PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR A WINNEMUCCA-AUSTIN LINE BY 5 AM TUESDAY. LIFT
WILL BE STRONG AHEAD OF THIS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE, AND
CANNOT RULE OUT RUMBLES OF THUNDER TUESDAY MORNING DESPITE IT
PASSING DURING THE CONVECTIVE-MINIMUM MORNING HOURS. INCREASED
RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, TO THE DEFINITE CATEGORY WHERE FGEN FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA. RAIN AMOUNTS NEAR 0.10 INCH
WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80, WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH MOST
LIKELY ACROSS NW ELKO COUNTY, NEAR THE OWYHEE DESERT. 00Z ECMWF
HAS FINALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE STRONGER/WETTER SOLUTIONS OF THE
OTHER MODELS, SO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ABOUT A 12-HOUR PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TO NEAR 7000 FT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, AND AM EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE SANTA ROSA, INDEPENDENCE, JARBIDGE AND RUBY MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FT.

A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BRING AN OCTOBER REALITY CHECK ON
TUESDAY, WITH 700 MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. COUPLED WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, MOST VALLEYS
WILL HOLD IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE OF PACE.

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY, EXITING NEVADA NEAR POCATELLO
IDAHO BY 5 PM. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL EAT AWAY
AT THE CLOUDS QUICKLY, WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY
MORNING EXPECTED. MANY VALLEYS WILL FREEZE WITH LOWS WELL DOWN
INTO THE 20S, PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

WEDNESDAY...MILD AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH GFS MODEL MISSING
WILL BE LEANING ON PERSISTENCE AND THE EC. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CWA IS BETWEEN A
TROF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL US.
EXCEPTION IS A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON SATURDAY. GEM AND THE EC BRING A
TROF AXIS ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL TIMING DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHEN
THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. HIGHS MUCH COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH IS
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY.  JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87







000
FXUS65 KLKN 200900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN OCTOBER REALITY
CHECK TO NORTHERN NEVADA...WITH RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ONCE AGAIN REVEALS CLEAR AND QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS NEVADA THIS MORNING, WHILE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
IS CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF EUREKA, CALIFORNIA.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CHANGE NEVADA WEATHER RATHER DRAMATICALLY ON
TUESDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY TO WINDY AND WARM. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 700 MB TEMPS
AND THICKNESS TODAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY, AS SUCH TODAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSELY MIRROR THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AFTER NOON, WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30
MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL OCCUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A WIND ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HIGH
CONFIDENCE NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
ARRIVE ON THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AROUND 5 PM, BUT
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT QUICKLY ACROSS NW NEVADA
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE SHARP PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR A WINNEMUCCA-AUSTIN LINE BY 5 AM TUESDAY. LIFT
WILL BE STRONG AHEAD OF THIS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE, AND
CANNOT RULE OUT RUMBLES OF THUNDER TUESDAY MORNING DESPITE IT
PASSING DURING THE CONVECTIVE-MINIMUM MORNING HOURS. INCREASED
RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, TO THE DEFINITE CATEGORY WHERE FGEN FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA. RAIN AMOUNTS NEAR 0.10 INCH
WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80, WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH MOST
LIKELY ACROSS NW ELKO COUNTY, NEAR THE OWYHEE DESERT. 00Z ECMWF
HAS FINALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE STRONGER/WETTER SOLUTIONS OF THE
OTHER MODELS, SO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ABOUT A 12-HOUR PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TO NEAR 7000 FT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, AND AM EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE SANTA ROSA, INDEPENDENCE, JARBIDGE AND RUBY MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FT.

A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BRING AN OCTOBER REALITY CHECK ON
TUESDAY, WITH 700 MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. COUPLED WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, MOST VALLEYS
WILL HOLD IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE OF PACE.

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY, EXITING NEVADA NEAR POCATELLO
IDAHO BY 5 PM. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL EAT AWAY
AT THE CLOUDS QUICKLY, WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY
MORNING EXPECTED. MANY VALLEYS WILL FREEZE WITH LOWS WELL DOWN
INTO THE 20S, PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

WEDNESDAY...MILD AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH GFS MODEL MISSING
WILL BE LEANING ON PERSISTENCE AND THE EC. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CWA IS BETWEEN A
TROF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL US.
EXCEPTION IS A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON SATURDAY. GEM AND THE EC BRING A
TROF AXIS ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL TIMING DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHEN
THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. HIGHS MUCH COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH IS
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY.  JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87






000
FXUS65 KLKN 192143
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
243 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM
FALL DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER NRN NV TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR NONE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO
STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE. THE EURO IS THE WEAKEST/DRIEST
SHOWING PRECIP CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM ALL SHOWING PRECIP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
NRN NYE COUNTY. HEAVILY WEIGHTED FORECAST TOWARDS THE WETTER
MAJORITY SOLUTION INDICATING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS NORTH TAPERING
OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF NRN NYE COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 6500 TO 7000 FEET NORTH BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET. DECREASING
SHOWERS TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA. DRY WEDNESDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW
BRINGING A PACIFIC NW TROUGH ONSHORE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
BY FRIDAY. NEAR ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY. WHILE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CURRENT RIDGING WILL END
A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...THERE ARE STILL TIMING
DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHEN THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. GFS HAS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NW
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL EASTERLY
EXPANSION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING THE TROUGH
INTO NEVADA...WITH SHOWERS NOT REACHING NORTHERN NEVADA UNTIL
SUNDAY. TRENDED POPS AND CLOUD COVER UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96







000
FXUS65 KLKN 192143
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
243 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM
FALL DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER NRN NV TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR NONE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO
STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE. THE EURO IS THE WEAKEST/DRIEST
SHOWING PRECIP CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM ALL SHOWING PRECIP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
NRN NYE COUNTY. HEAVILY WEIGHTED FORECAST TOWARDS THE WETTER
MAJORITY SOLUTION INDICATING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS NORTH TAPERING
OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF NRN NYE COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 6500 TO 7000 FEET NORTH BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET. DECREASING
SHOWERS TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA. DRY WEDNESDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW
BRINGING A PACIFIC NW TROUGH ONSHORE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
BY FRIDAY. NEAR ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY. WHILE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CURRENT RIDGING WILL END
A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...THERE ARE STILL TIMING
DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHEN THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. GFS HAS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NW
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL EASTERLY
EXPANSION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING THE TROUGH
INTO NEVADA...WITH SHOWERS NOT REACHING NORTHERN NEVADA UNTIL
SUNDAY. TRENDED POPS AND CLOUD COVER UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96






000
FXUS65 KLKN 190900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...FANTASTIC FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES IN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

CLEAR AND QUIET ACROSS NEVADA THIS MORNING. UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RECEIVE ANOTHER BOOST.
EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST VALLEYS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE OCTOBER NORMALS. 00Z MET GUIDANCE
FORECASTS ELKO TO GET WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF THE RECORD HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON, 82 SET IN 1921. MET GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AS
OF LATE, SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE COOLER MAV AND WENT FOR
A HIGH OF 77 AT THE ELKO AIRPORT. JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SOUTH BREEZE AT 5-15
MPH.

MONDAY...WINDY AND WARM. SHARP PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND 5 PM. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTH WINDS STRONGEST
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE THEY WILL AVERAGE 20-30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF DELAYING THE STRONGEST GRADIENTS UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET MONDAY, WITH THE MOST ROBUST WINDS ALOFT EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. AS SUCH, DO NOT FEEL A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
VALLEYS AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. KEPT THE CWA DRY THROUGH 5 PM
MONDAY, AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA. ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON, WITH THICKNESS STAYING THE SAME AND
700 MB TEMPS HOLDING NEAR 7C, DELIVERING MORE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. WARMEST VALLEY LOCALES WILL CRACK 80 WITH A FEW RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLY THREATENED.

TUESDAY...AN OCTOBER REALITY CHECK, AS STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
SHORTWAVE ROTATES QUICKLY THROUGH NEVADA. 00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO
TREND STRONGER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE, AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
AND COLD FRONT. GFS FORECASTS RESPECTABLE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LOVELOCK-TONOPAH LINE
AT 5 AM TUESDAY, WITH STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SPREADING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE
IN THE FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS PACKAGE, IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH GFS/NAM. ECMWF REMAINS SHALLOWER/DRIER WITH ITS SOLUTION, SO
CUT DOWN ON THE QPF/RAIN AMOUNTS NAM/GFS ARE SUGGESTING. STILL, A
QUICK 0.10-0.20 INCH OF RAIN IS PLAUSIBLE WHEREEVER THE FGEN BAND
SETS UP EARLY TUESDAY. NAM/GFS ALSO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY NEAR
AUSTIN AT 5 AM TUESDAY, ROTATING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO ELKO
COUNTY BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. SHORTWAVE WILL BE
HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE, AS IS EXPECTED TO EXIT NEVADA BY 5 PM, WITH
SUBSIDENCE ENDING SHOWERS AROUND SUNSET. MAIN IMPACT ACROSS NEVADA
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL SEND
700 MB TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR -3C, WITH HIGHS REDUCED TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE OF
PACE. SNOW LEVELS FALL TO 7500 FT ON TUESDAY, WITH A COUPLE FRESH
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY THE INDEPENDENCE, JARBIDGE
AND RUBY MOUNTAINS OF ELKO COUNTY.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BUT ARE SHOWING SOME INCONSISTENCIES HANDLING A POTENTIAL INCOMING
PACIFIC TROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE LKN CWFA.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO CEASE AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE AS THE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 7500 FEET BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS SO SOME SNOWFLAKES AT THAT LEVEL SHOULD BE NO
SURPRISE.

TUESDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL DIP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS
SKIES CLEAR...AND SOME VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE. THEN
AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF
NEVADA...A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/92/92






000
FXUS65 KLKN 182144
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
244 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN NV. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO NEAR 7000 FEET FAR NORTH TO AROUND 9000 FEET CENTRAL NV. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY AND 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS CENTRAL NV.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE EXITING INTO
UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTS IN DECREASING CLOUDS OVER NEVADA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTH. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGERING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
EXPAND INTO NORTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S...WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. CEILING WILL BE BKN TO OVC
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KELY.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96






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