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000
FXUS65 KLKN 292158
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
258 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON REMAINS ACTIVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND IS
BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED MONSOON
EVENT...AND WILL POSSIBLY PERSIST UNTIL NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A MOIST PATTERN IS ON DECK
WITH...THE DEW PTS FOR ELY AND TPH OVER 50F. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE FOR ELKO WAS 82F AND EASILY REACHED. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MOISTURE LADEN...WITH PWS FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING AT 1.01 OF AN INCH
FROM KEKO WHICH IS 173 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND 1.3 OF AN INCH AT
LAS VEGAS WHICH IS 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE
WELL OVER .75 PWS OVER THE LKN CWA IN BOTH HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG A SIMILAR VEIN...THE CAPE IS
AVERAGING OVER 800 J/KG ON THE NAM FOR THIS EVENT...ALONG WITH A
BROAD SWATH OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THE PROGGED SOUNDINGS FOR
ELY ARE CLOSE TO SATURATED PROFILE FROM 600 MB TO 500 MB. CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THESE WILL BE SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE WINDEX
FOR ELY IS AT 46 WHILE THE WINDEX AT ELKO IS 50...OUTFLOWS WILL
BE ROBUST. THE MODELS AGAIN DEPICT A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO PERTURB THE
ATMOSPHERE. AGAIN...HIGH CONFIDENCE QPF EVENT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND FAIRLY MOIST. GFS AND EC MODELS
INDICATE A FLAT 500MB HIGH OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
LOW ROTATING THROUGH NORTHEAST NV FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER EXTREME NE NV. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THERMAL TROF REFORMS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NV WITH A
SURFACE HIGH OVER EAST CENTRAL NV. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS CLOSE TO
ZERO OVER MOST OF WHITE PINE COUNTY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY...THERMAL TROF SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NV WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 0.75 TO
0.90 INCHES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS....SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. KELY POSSIBLY WILL HAVE SHOWERS HEAVY AT TIMES...
THUS MAY DECREASE CIGS/VSBY TO IFR LOCALLY. ANY TSRA MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS. ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BIGGEST FORECASTING CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE WAS
THE LALS. TWEAKED THE TSRA DISTRIBUTION WHICH BUMPED DOWN THE LALS
FROM 5 TO 3. OTHERWISE...FOREAST IS ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

97/87/87/97






000
FXUS65 KLKN 292158
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
258 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON REMAINS ACTIVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND IS
BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED MONSOON
EVENT...AND WILL POSSIBLY PERSIST UNTIL NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A MOIST PATTERN IS ON DECK
WITH...THE DEW PTS FOR ELY AND TPH OVER 50F. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE FOR ELKO WAS 82F AND EASILY REACHED. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MOISTURE LADEN...WITH PWS FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING AT 1.01 OF AN INCH
FROM KEKO WHICH IS 173 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND 1.3 OF AN INCH AT
LAS VEGAS WHICH IS 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE
WELL OVER .75 PWS OVER THE LKN CWA IN BOTH HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG A SIMILAR VEIN...THE CAPE IS
AVERAGING OVER 800 J/KG ON THE NAM FOR THIS EVENT...ALONG WITH A
BROAD SWATH OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THE PROGGED SOUNDINGS FOR
ELY ARE CLOSE TO SATURATED PROFILE FROM 600 MB TO 500 MB. CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THESE WILL BE SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE WINDEX
FOR ELY IS AT 46 WHILE THE WINDEX AT ELKO IS 50...OUTFLOWS WILL
BE ROBUST. THE MODELS AGAIN DEPICT A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO PERTURB THE
ATMOSPHERE. AGAIN...HIGH CONFIDENCE QPF EVENT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND FAIRLY MOIST. GFS AND EC MODELS
INDICATE A FLAT 500MB HIGH OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
LOW ROTATING THROUGH NORTHEAST NV FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER EXTREME NE NV. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THERMAL TROF REFORMS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NV WITH A
SURFACE HIGH OVER EAST CENTRAL NV. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS CLOSE TO
ZERO OVER MOST OF WHITE PINE COUNTY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY...THERMAL TROF SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NV WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 0.75 TO
0.90 INCHES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS....SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. KELY POSSIBLY WILL HAVE SHOWERS HEAVY AT TIMES...
THUS MAY DECREASE CIGS/VSBY TO IFR LOCALLY. ANY TSRA MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS. ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BIGGEST FORECASTING CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE WAS
THE LALS. TWEAKED THE TSRA DISTRIBUTION WHICH BUMPED DOWN THE LALS
FROM 5 TO 3. OTHERWISE...FOREAST IS ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

97/87/87/97







000
FXUS65 KLKN 291036
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
336 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE IS NOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AS SUBTLE PIECES OF ENERGY LIFTING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MONSOON
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE
CURRENT SHORT RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
FOCUSING THE GREATEST BELT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES WITH LI`S TO MINUS 3 AND CAPE RANGING
FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. WITH SUBTLE PIECES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY /MID
LEVEL COLD POOLS/ INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
AND PWATS AROUND ONE INCH...THESE MODELS FOCUS THE BEST FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER EASTERN NEVADA. THE NAM FOCUSES THE
INSTABILITY FROM WHITE PINE COUNTY NORTHWEST TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY
WITH LI`S RANGING FROM MINUS TWO TO MINUS FOUR AND CAPE FROM 500
TO 1000 J/KG. THE NAM ALSO SHIFTS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FROM EASTERN NEVADA TO A LINE FROM NORTHWEST NYE
COUNTY NORTHWARD TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY EVENING. WITH ANY AREA
WITHIN THE CWA STILL VULNERABLE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER WITH THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZING SOMEWHAT EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORT TERM MODELS INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
MORE ROBUST WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AGAIN
FOCUS OVER EASTERN NEVADA. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY`S MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE LACK OF POCKETS OF ENERGY
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL
JUST MENTION ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IT IS GOING TO BE
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE CONTINUING TO DEPICT A MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE
SHOWING A PIECE OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE. THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THIS ENERGY FURTHER
WEST THAN THE GFS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT ON THIS LOBE
LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
IT AND SEE IF ITS TRACK PUSHES FURTHER WEST. ONLY REAL FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE GLUT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN AS
WELL...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY...AND
THIS IS THE ONLY WILDCARD SEEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
ABOVE 1.0 INCHES IN ALL LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LIGHT WINDS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...THE FEATURE WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
THERE MIGHT BE SOME SLIGHT DRYING IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS A WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW TRIES TO SET UP. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DIMINISH
TO AROUND 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES IN THIS LOCATION...WITH HIGHER VALUES
SEEN IN THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART...POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE
ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED CATEGORIES FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE SHORT
AND WEAK DRYING. AGAIN LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE IN UPPER 50S AND MID 60S GOING INTO
THE SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED.

FOUR CORNERS HIGH CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER SAID AREA FOR
SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO
0.75 TO 0.90 INCHES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN ALL LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL PLENTIFUL TODAY...HELPING TO FUEL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
KELY AND KEKO...WITH HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL DECREASE
CIGS/VSBY TO IFR LOCALLY AT THESE LOCATIONS. OVER THE KWMC AND KTPH
SITES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE
HERE...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY SEEN OVER KWMC. ANY TSRA MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40KT. ACTIVITY WILL WANE TOWARDS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WETTING RAINS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LEVEL OF MONSOON
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LALS INTO TONIGHT.
ANY STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OUTFLOW
WIND GUST OF 45 TO 50 MPH.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN
ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

89/86/86/89







000
FXUS65 KLKN 282202
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
302 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON IS ACTIVE AND BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT TIMES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
TOMORROW AND IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM PDT TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...AT THE ONSET...THE DEW PT FOR ELY WAS OVER 50F AND
NEAR 50F AT TPH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS JUICED...WITH PWS FROM THE 12Z
SOUNDING AT .95 OF AN INCH FROM KEKO WHICH IS 163 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...AND 1.43 OF AN INCH AT LAS VEGAS WHICH IS 188 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE WELL OVER 1" PWS OVER THE LKN CWA
IN BOTH HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG A
SIMILAR VEIN...THE CAPE IS AVERAGING OVER 500 J/KG ON THE NAM FOR
THIS EVENT COINCIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE LI`S. THE PROGGED
SOUNDINGS FOR ELY HAVE A SATURATED PROFILE FROM 600 MB TO 450 MB.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION WILL
CONTINUE TO PERTURB THE ATMOSPHERE. HIGH CONFIDENCE QPF EVENT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE
MODELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN REGARDS TO HANDLING THE MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE HERNAN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE GFS TAKES SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS HURRICANE AND MOVES IT ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NV WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES THIS MOISTURE ON
ON MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY CONFINED TO CENTRAL
NV WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAVE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE UP FROM THE SOUTH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT KELY AND KTPH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KWMC AND KEKO.
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT ALL  TAF SITES AND
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN CAN
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS MONSOON
OUTBREAK...ALONG WITH ENHANCED LALS. THE WINDEX HAS GUSTS OF 45
MPH...GUSTY OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

97/92/92/97






000
FXUS65 KLKN 281102
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
402 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. AS THIS EPISODE OF MONSOON MOISTURE UNFOLDS IT WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS SHOWING A PRONOUNCED SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM ARIZONA ATTM. THE 00Z
GFS/NAM12 MODELS WERE BOTH INDICATING PWATS 0.90 TO 1.00 INCHES
INTO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AT 00Z MONDAY WHILE THE 00Z LKN SOUNDING
INDICATED ONLY 0.69 INCHES. AGAIN IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE OVER
DOING THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LAST
NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNER STATES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. SUBTLE PIECES OF ENERGY /THE FIRST OF WHICH
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/ LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE
PUSH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION ACROSS THE CWA
/ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEVADA/ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS PWATS
APPROACH AN INCH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST CELLS. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE CELLS SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE ENCOUNTER OVER EASTERN NEVADA.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY
TO BE AS ROBUST LATE TONIGHT AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTION BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS
DYNAMICS INCREASE TO ENHANCE AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY /STRONGER THAN
MONDAY`S/ LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND HAS UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT /LFQ/ ENHANCING THE DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT /CONVECTIVE
EXHAUST/. THE UPPER LEVEL DYMANICS NOW WILL WORK ON PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES AND ALSO INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY INDICATED BY THE SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENT SLUG OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
IN REGARDS TO HANDLING THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE HERNAN OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO. THE GFS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS
HURRICANE AND MOVES IT ACROSS SOUTHERN CA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NV
WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES THIS MOISTURE ON ON MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY CONFINED TO CENTRAL NV WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST WHICH HAVE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV.
MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOWING
ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN NV TODAY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE KELY AND KEKO TERMINALS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT AND AROUND THE KWMC AND KTPH
TERMINALS. HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD TO ALL ZONES TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WET AND SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
DURING TUESDAY AND BURN AREAS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEBRIS
FLOWS DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

89/91/91/89






000
FXUS65 KLKN 281102
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
402 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. AS THIS EPISODE OF MONSOON MOISTURE UNFOLDS IT WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS SHOWING A PRONOUNCED SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM ARIZONA ATTM. THE 00Z
GFS/NAM12 MODELS WERE BOTH INDICATING PWATS 0.90 TO 1.00 INCHES
INTO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AT 00Z MONDAY WHILE THE 00Z LKN SOUNDING
INDICATED ONLY 0.69 INCHES. AGAIN IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE OVER
DOING THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LAST
NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNER STATES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. SUBTLE PIECES OF ENERGY /THE FIRST OF WHICH
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/ LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE
PUSH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION ACROSS THE CWA
/ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEVADA/ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS PWATS
APPROACH AN INCH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST CELLS. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE CELLS SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE ENCOUNTER OVER EASTERN NEVADA.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY
TO BE AS ROBUST LATE TONIGHT AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTION BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS
DYNAMICS INCREASE TO ENHANCE AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY /STRONGER THAN
MONDAY`S/ LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND HAS UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT /LFQ/ ENHANCING THE DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT /CONVECTIVE
EXHAUST/. THE UPPER LEVEL DYMANICS NOW WILL WORK ON PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES AND ALSO INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY INDICATED BY THE SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENT SLUG OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
IN REGARDS TO HANDLING THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE HERNAN OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO. THE GFS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS
HURRICANE AND MOVES IT ACROSS SOUTHERN CA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NV
WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES THIS MOISTURE ON ON MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY CONFINED TO CENTRAL NV WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST WHICH HAVE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV.
MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOWING
ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN NV TODAY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE KELY AND KEKO TERMINALS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT AND AROUND THE KWMC AND KTPH
TERMINALS. HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD TO ALL ZONES TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WET AND SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
DURING TUESDAY AND BURN AREAS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEBRIS
FLOWS DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

89/91/91/89







000
FXUS65 KLKN 280201 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
701 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS EPISODE
OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...UPDATED TO INCLUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH INFORMATION AND
INCLUDE HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN THE WATCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. PERHAPS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS AREA A
LITTLE OVER-AGGRESSIVE IN CALCULATING THE INITIAL MONSOON
MOISTURE PUSH. HOWEVER EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF MOISTURE THIS WEEK AND IT WILL ARRIVE IN WAVES.
CONVECTION REACHED WHITE PINE COUNTY AND NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY ON
SATURDAY AS PROPOSED AND THE MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NV AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION BEGAN AT 18Z OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NYE COUNTY EAST OF ROUND MOUNTAIN AND MANHATTAN AND
THE FIRST CELLS MOVED DUE NORTH UP MONITOR VALLEY. A MORE ROBUST
SURGE OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFFECTING
ALL AREAS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AT THIS TIME
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROPOSED TO BE BELOW ONE INCH
THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLY BREACHING THE ONE INCH MARK ON TUESDAY
IN WHITE PINE COUNTY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN WHITE PINE COUNTY
AND NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY STARTED OUT IN THE 40S WITH SITES 30
MILES TO THE NORTH AND WEST REPORTING DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S.

THIS EVENING. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND
WEST STILL PRIMARILY COVERING EASTERN NEVADA...GENERALLY
ENCOMPASSING ALL AREAS EAST OF A N/S LINE EXTENDING FROM TONOPAH
THROUGH AUSTIN TO CARLIN. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED OVER CENTRAL
NV AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY OVER EASTERN NEVADA AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FIRST NOTABLE WAVE OF
MOISTURE TRAILS EAST INTO UTAH...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO INCITE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL AREAS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...A DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME WILL CREEP ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER WITH UTAH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER EASTERN NEVADA ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED ONE INCH. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SECOND AND MORE PROLIFIC
SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOODING. ENHANCED BY ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM MONDAY
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME OVERNIGHT LOCALIZE MODERATE RAINFALL...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPENED AND THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A PROPOSED EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE RIDGE AXIS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STORM MOTION. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RISING INTO THE 50S AND CAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 500 J/KG. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES. DUE TO A RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION...THE INITIAL 12Z TIMING OF THE WATCH TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT A MODELED WEST TO EAST BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
MODERATE RAINFALL.



.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV...WITH THE GFS HAVING
OVER 1 INCH PW OVER HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE DOMAIN STAGE RIGHT...WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME...THE CORFIDI VECTORS LOOK PROBLEMATIC OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE LKN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER FORCING THAT ENERGY INTO IDAHO...BUT BOTH
MODELS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE...AND BOTH MODELS DEEP  RIDGING OVER
THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL SUSTAIN MONSOONAL FLOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS AND WILL BE MONITORED
DAILY.


&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24
HOURS. MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY KTPH AND KWMC POSSIBLY UP TO KEKO. THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT RE-FIRE DURING THE MIDDAY ON MONDAY.
ANY STORM MAY BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VIS DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN...ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 45
KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHWARD...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD TO ALL ZONES BY
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WET AND SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING TUESDAY AND BURN AREAS WILL BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEBRIS FLOWS DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NEVADA ALL WEEK.



&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/97/97/92







000
FXUS65 KLKN 280201 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
701 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS EPISODE
OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...UPDATED TO INCLUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH INFORMATION AND
INCLUDE HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN THE WATCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. PERHAPS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS AREA A
LITTLE OVER-AGGRESSIVE IN CALCULATING THE INITIAL MONSOON
MOISTURE PUSH. HOWEVER EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF MOISTURE THIS WEEK AND IT WILL ARRIVE IN WAVES.
CONVECTION REACHED WHITE PINE COUNTY AND NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY ON
SATURDAY AS PROPOSED AND THE MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NV AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION BEGAN AT 18Z OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NYE COUNTY EAST OF ROUND MOUNTAIN AND MANHATTAN AND
THE FIRST CELLS MOVED DUE NORTH UP MONITOR VALLEY. A MORE ROBUST
SURGE OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFFECTING
ALL AREAS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AT THIS TIME
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROPOSED TO BE BELOW ONE INCH
THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLY BREACHING THE ONE INCH MARK ON TUESDAY
IN WHITE PINE COUNTY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN WHITE PINE COUNTY
AND NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY STARTED OUT IN THE 40S WITH SITES 30
MILES TO THE NORTH AND WEST REPORTING DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S.

THIS EVENING. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND
WEST STILL PRIMARILY COVERING EASTERN NEVADA...GENERALLY
ENCOMPASSING ALL AREAS EAST OF A N/S LINE EXTENDING FROM TONOPAH
THROUGH AUSTIN TO CARLIN. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED OVER CENTRAL
NV AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY OVER EASTERN NEVADA AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FIRST NOTABLE WAVE OF
MOISTURE TRAILS EAST INTO UTAH...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO INCITE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL AREAS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...A DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME WILL CREEP ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER WITH UTAH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER EASTERN NEVADA ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED ONE INCH. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SECOND AND MORE PROLIFIC
SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOODING. ENHANCED BY ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM MONDAY
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME OVERNIGHT LOCALIZE MODERATE RAINFALL...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPENED AND THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A PROPOSED EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE RIDGE AXIS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STORM MOTION. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RISING INTO THE 50S AND CAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 500 J/KG. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES. DUE TO A RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION...THE INITIAL 12Z TIMING OF THE WATCH TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT A MODELED WEST TO EAST BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
MODERATE RAINFALL.



.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV...WITH THE GFS HAVING
OVER 1 INCH PW OVER HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE DOMAIN STAGE RIGHT...WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME...THE CORFIDI VECTORS LOOK PROBLEMATIC OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE LKN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER FORCING THAT ENERGY INTO IDAHO...BUT BOTH
MODELS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE...AND BOTH MODELS DEEP  RIDGING OVER
THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL SUSTAIN MONSOONAL FLOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS AND WILL BE MONITORED
DAILY.


&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24
HOURS. MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY KTPH AND KWMC POSSIBLY UP TO KEKO. THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT RE-FIRE DURING THE MIDDAY ON MONDAY.
ANY STORM MAY BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VIS DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN...ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 45
KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHWARD...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD TO ALL ZONES BY
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WET AND SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING TUESDAY AND BURN AREAS WILL BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEBRIS FLOWS DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NEVADA ALL WEEK.



&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/97/97/92






000
FXUS65 KLKN 272154
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
254 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS EPISODE
OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. PERHAPS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS AREA A
LITTLE OVER-AGGRESSIVE IN CALCULATING THE INITIAL MONSOON
MOISTURE PUSH. HOWEVER EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF MOISTURE THIS WEEK AND IT WILL ARRIVE IN WAVES.
CONVECTION REACHED WHITE PINE COUNTY AND NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY ON
SATURDAY AS PROPOSED AND THE MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NV AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION BEGAN AT 18Z OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NYE COUNTY EAST OF ROUND MOUNTAIN AND MANHATTAN AND
THE FIRST CELLS MOVED DUE NORTH UP MONITOR VALLEY. A MORE ROBUST
SURGE OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFFECTING
ALL AREAS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AT THIS TIME
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROPOSED TO BE BELOW ONE INCH
THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLY BREACHING THE ONE INCH MARK ON TUESDAY
IN WHITE PINE COUNTY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN WHITE PINE COUNTY
AND NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY STARTED OUT IN THE 40S WITH SITES 30
MILES TO THE NORTH AND WEST REPORTING DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S.

THIS EVENING. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND
WEST STILL PRIMARILY COVERING EASTERN NEVADA...GENERALLY
ENCOMPASSING ALL AREAS EAST OF A N/S LINE EXTENDING FROM TONOPAH
THROUGH AUSTIN TO CARLIN. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED OVER CENTRAL
NV AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY OVER EASTERN NEVADA AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FIRST NOTABLE WAVE OF
MOISTURE TRAILS EAST INTO UTAH...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO INCITE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL AREAS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...A DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME WILL CREEP ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER WITH UTAH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER EASTERN NEVADA ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED ONE INCH. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SECOND AND MORE PROLIFIC
SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOODING. ENHANCED BY ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM MONDAY
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME OVERNIGHT LOCALIZE MODERATE RAINFALL...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPENED AND THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A PROPOSED EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE RIDGE AXIS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STORM MOTION. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RISING INTO THE 50S AND CAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 500 J/KG. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. DUE TO A RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...THE INITIAL 12Z TIMING OF
THE WATCH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT A MODELED WEST TO EAST BAND OF
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV...WITH THE GFS HAVING
OVER 1 INCH PW OVER HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE DOMAIN STAGE RIGHT...WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME...THE CORFIDI VECTORS LOOK PROBLEMATIC OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE LKN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER FORCING THAT ENERGY INTO IDAHO...BUT BOTH
MODELS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE...AND BOTH MODELS DEEP  RIDGING OVER
THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL SUSTAIN MONSOONAL FLOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS AND WILL BE MONITORED
DAILY.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24
HOURS. MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY KTPH AND KWMC POSSIBLY UP TO KEKO. THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT RE-FIRE DURING THE MIDDAY ON MONDAY.
ANY STORM MAY BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VIS DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN...ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 45
KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHWARD...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD TO ALL ZONES BY
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WET AND SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING TUESDAY AND BURN AREAS WILL BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEBRIS FLOWS DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NEVADA ALL WEEK.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97/92







000
FXUS65 KLKN 272154
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
254 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS EPISODE
OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. PERHAPS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS AREA A
LITTLE OVER-AGGRESSIVE IN CALCULATING THE INITIAL MONSOON
MOISTURE PUSH. HOWEVER EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF MOISTURE THIS WEEK AND IT WILL ARRIVE IN WAVES.
CONVECTION REACHED WHITE PINE COUNTY AND NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY ON
SATURDAY AS PROPOSED AND THE MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NV AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION BEGAN AT 18Z OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NYE COUNTY EAST OF ROUND MOUNTAIN AND MANHATTAN AND
THE FIRST CELLS MOVED DUE NORTH UP MONITOR VALLEY. A MORE ROBUST
SURGE OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFFECTING
ALL AREAS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AT THIS TIME
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROPOSED TO BE BELOW ONE INCH
THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLY BREACHING THE ONE INCH MARK ON TUESDAY
IN WHITE PINE COUNTY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN WHITE PINE COUNTY
AND NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY STARTED OUT IN THE 40S WITH SITES 30
MILES TO THE NORTH AND WEST REPORTING DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S.

THIS EVENING. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND
WEST STILL PRIMARILY COVERING EASTERN NEVADA...GENERALLY
ENCOMPASSING ALL AREAS EAST OF A N/S LINE EXTENDING FROM TONOPAH
THROUGH AUSTIN TO CARLIN. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED OVER CENTRAL
NV AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY OVER EASTERN NEVADA AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FIRST NOTABLE WAVE OF
MOISTURE TRAILS EAST INTO UTAH...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO INCITE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL AREAS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...A DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME WILL CREEP ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER WITH UTAH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER EASTERN NEVADA ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED ONE INCH. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SECOND AND MORE PROLIFIC
SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOODING. ENHANCED BY ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM MONDAY
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME OVERNIGHT LOCALIZE MODERATE RAINFALL...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPENED AND THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A PROPOSED EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE RIDGE AXIS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STORM MOTION. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RISING INTO THE 50S AND CAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 500 J/KG. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. DUE TO A RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...THE INITIAL 12Z TIMING OF
THE WATCH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT A MODELED WEST TO EAST BAND OF
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV...WITH THE GFS HAVING
OVER 1 INCH PW OVER HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE DOMAIN STAGE RIGHT...WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME...THE CORFIDI VECTORS LOOK PROBLEMATIC OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE LKN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER FORCING THAT ENERGY INTO IDAHO...BUT BOTH
MODELS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE...AND BOTH MODELS DEEP  RIDGING OVER
THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL SUSTAIN MONSOONAL FLOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS AND WILL BE MONITORED
DAILY.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24
HOURS. MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY KTPH AND KWMC POSSIBLY UP TO KEKO. THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT RE-FIRE DURING THE MIDDAY ON MONDAY.
ANY STORM MAY BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VIS DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN...ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 45
KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHWARD...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD TO ALL ZONES BY
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WET AND SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING TUESDAY AND BURN AREAS WILL BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEBRIS FLOWS DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NEVADA ALL WEEK.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97/92






000
FXUS65 KLKN 270954
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
254 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA
TODAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSELY THE
GFS ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MONSOON MOISTURE TODAY AS THE NAM HAS
BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN BRINGING THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR TODAY THE GFS BRING MOISTURE TO THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND INTO CENTRAL LANDER AND CENTRAL EUREKA COUNTIES.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 8/10 OF AN INCH MOST STORMS
WILL DROP DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NV TONIGHT AS BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD TO THE
IDAHO BORDER AND WESTWARD TO COVER MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 9/10 INCH. WITH SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT BOTH DAYS FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY ONE
LOCATION BUT THINK IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
FLUCTUATIONS REGARDING INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED AROUND THE FOUR-CORNER STATES. SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER
LEVEL JET COUPLET ENERGY AND INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON FLOW /PWATS
0.80 TO 1.00/ TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER THE CORE OF
ANY STRONG CONVECTION. TIMING AND LOCATION WILL BE A CHALLENGE
DAILY. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT OF ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
EXISTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DAILY.
&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND COVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION AFFECTING ANY TERMINAL WILL BE AT KELY /30 TO 35 PCT/
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND A LESSER CHANCE /AROUND 15 PCT/ AT KTPH
DURING A SMALL WINDOW ROUGHLY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
KWMC AND KEKO WILL REMAIN DRY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD
TODAY AND MONDAY, COVERING ALL FIRE ZONES BY MONDAY. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH STORMS WILL BE WET.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICT
ALL WEEK.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/89/89/91






000
FXUS65 KLKN 270954
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
254 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA
TODAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSELY THE
GFS ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MONSOON MOISTURE TODAY AS THE NAM HAS
BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN BRINGING THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR TODAY THE GFS BRING MOISTURE TO THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND INTO CENTRAL LANDER AND CENTRAL EUREKA COUNTIES.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 8/10 OF AN INCH MOST STORMS
WILL DROP DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NV TONIGHT AS BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD TO THE
IDAHO BORDER AND WESTWARD TO COVER MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 9/10 INCH. WITH SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT BOTH DAYS FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY ONE
LOCATION BUT THINK IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
FLUCTUATIONS REGARDING INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED AROUND THE FOUR-CORNER STATES. SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER
LEVEL JET COUPLET ENERGY AND INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON FLOW /PWATS
0.80 TO 1.00/ TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER THE CORE OF
ANY STRONG CONVECTION. TIMING AND LOCATION WILL BE A CHALLENGE
DAILY. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT OF ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
EXISTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DAILY.
&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND COVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION AFFECTING ANY TERMINAL WILL BE AT KELY /30 TO 35 PCT/
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND A LESSER CHANCE /AROUND 15 PCT/ AT KTPH
DURING A SMALL WINDOW ROUGHLY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
KWMC AND KEKO WILL REMAIN DRY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD
TODAY AND MONDAY, COVERING ALL FIRE ZONES BY MONDAY. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH STORMS WILL BE WET.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICT
ALL WEEK.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/89/89/91







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