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000
FXUS65 KLKN 250947
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
247 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC TODAY WILL
BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL BELOW 7000 FEET IN NORTHERN NEVADA BY SUNDAY. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR THREE MAY OCCUR IN THE HIGHER HILLS
AND MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE WEST
COAST TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS STORM...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP. INHERITED A WIND ADVISORY...AND TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF EXPANDING IT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF WEAKER WINDS ALOFT AND
MORE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MADE ME HESITANT TO EXPAND IT INTO ELKO
COUNTY. THAT SAID...BRIEF GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHEN THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH IN
CASE A LATE EXPANSION BECOMES WARRANTED. WITH THE WINDS AND THE
RECENT DRY WEATHER...BLOWING DUST APPEARS LIKELY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT TEMPS TODAY BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM LATE
OCTOBER DAY...PROBABLY THE LAST WARM OCTOBER DAY THIS YEAR.

COLD FRONT CLEARS MOST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ALOFT WILL PUSH
NORTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOME
FORCING WILL ENTER NORTHERN NEVADA...AND INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE. THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
BECOME COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING.
MOST SHOWERS LOOK TO STAY CLOSER TO THE PATH OF THE VORT MAX WHICH
RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80...BUT WITH SNOW LEVELS LIKELY
TO LOWER BELOW 7000 AND POSSIBLY BELOW 6000 FEET...SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY.

TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH. CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BRING
TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S.

WARM ADVECTION MONDAY MAY BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION AS
HEIGHTS RISE...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REGARDLESS BE A DRY DAY. TEMPS
WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE HOWEVER. RCM

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NO SERIOUS CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS LONG RANGE FORECAST. IDEA OF TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY FLAT SHORT WAVE RIDGE HOLDS. AT THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...ANOTHER OFFSHORE TROUGH SHOWS UP ON THE HORIZON.
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN THE FLAT
RIDGE...PRODUCING VERY LOW POPS. WARMING TREND MEANS THAT ANY
SHOWER THAT DO FALL...AND THEY WILL LARGELY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...WILL BE RAIN. WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISSUE WILL BE
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. THEN SLOWLY
DROPPING. AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 30 KNOTS AT KWMC AND
KEKO...AND NEAR 40 KNOTS AT KELY AND KTPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. WARNING CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO HUMIDITY
REMAINING ABOVE 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...ANY FIRE STARTS COULD STILL
SPREAD QUICKLY JUST DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

93/98/98








000
FXUS65 KLKN 242137
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
237 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY
WINDS...EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
...THE SANTA ROSAS AND THE INDEPENDENCE MOUNTAINS...AND THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE LATEST VIS
SATELLITE...A MATURE PACIFIC CYCLONE UPSTREAM FROM THE LKN CWA. NE
NV IS STILL UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT ALL MODELS POINT TO A TASTE
OF WINTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...COMPLETE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MT
SNOW. THE V COMPONENT ANOMALIES ON THE NAEFS WERE 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM 12Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AT 500 MB FROM ELY TO DENIO WAS +12 DAM...WHICH WAS VERY
CONSITSENT BETWEEN MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND EVENT FOR
SATURDAY...MAY POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD ELKO COUNTY TO THE NPW
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY..AS THE U-COMPONENT ANOMALIES START
TO SPIKE IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. FIRST GUESS...FROUDE NUMBERS
SUPPORT A LEE SIDE OF THE RUBIES EVENT. STAY TUNED FOR MORE
DETAILS. QPF-WISE...THE PWS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT THE
DYNAMICS ARE CLEARLY IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN NV/ SE OR/ SW ID
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS STRONGEST WITH
THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS IS LIMITED SO NO POPS...HOWEVER
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN EXTREME NE NV. ON TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
NEVADA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CWA. RIDGE
FLATTENS TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN NV. GFS HAS A BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
ELKO AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES...WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE PRECIP IN IDAHO.
WITH DIFFERENCES IN MODELS...HAVE JUST MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA...AND KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY. SAME REASONING FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT PUSHED
THE LINE JUST NORTH OF I80. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE
REBUILDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT TURBULENCE.
VFR CIGS/VIS NEXT 24 HOURS ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED REST OF THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY KELY/KTPH...AND AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

97/92/92







000
FXUS65 KLKN 241049
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
349 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO MOST OF NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A FEW NORTHERN VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY. HIGHER TERRAIN CERTAINLY WILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT...BETTER THAN IN A LONG TIME...ON THE MAJOR AND MINOR
DETAILS OF THE DYNAMIC STRUCTURE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST TOWARD NEVADA. MOISTURE IS THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT. THE EURO
HAS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AT THIS TIME WITH THE GFS
LAGGING...NAM IS LIKE UNTO THE EURO IN STRUCTURE BUT APPEARS TO
MOVE OUT MORE QUICKLY SUNDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE EURO
IN THE INTEREST OF CONSISTENCY. POPS ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH DESPITE
BEING IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD NOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE A DECENTLY
WIDESPREAD EVENT OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 6000 TO 6500 FEET WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER 7000 FEET. EVEN
SOME LOWER VALLEY FLOORS IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND CENTRAL ELKO
COUNTY MAY SEE A SKIFF BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY NEEDED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND A
WEAKENING JET STREAK CROSSES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
EXTENT OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL PASS ON TO
DAY SHIFT.

LAST...TRAJECTORIES OF WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING VECTORS OUT
OF THE WESTERN NEVADA SALT FLATS AND THIS COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST OVER PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT...LANDER...EUREKA...AND
ELKO COUNTIES. IF IT ALSO RAINS/SNOWS...WE ALWAYS END UP WITH MUD
SHOWERS.

TEMPS MILD UNTIL THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THEN MUCH COOLER SUNDAY.
BB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START
OUT WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE PUTS ALL
ENERGY EAST OF US BY SUNDAY EVENING SO GENERALLY DROPPED POPS AND
SKY COVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD GET RATHER COLD IF SKIES CLEAR
BUT NOTHING EXTREME FOR LATE OCTOBER. WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DOMINATE ALOFT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
SKIES WILL BE PRETTY SUNNY MONDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN RETURNING
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.

SHORTWAVE MOVING BY TO THE NORTH WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
RISK SHOULD BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WITH
CENTRAL NEVADA LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. WITH RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD BOUNCE BACK TO NORMALISH.

GFS AND ECMWF START TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY
THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS CENTERING THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH ALL THE
WAY OVER IN TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT IN ARIZONA. THIS OF
COURSE HAS IMPACTS UPSTREAM...WITH THE NEXT TROUGH CONSIDERABLY
FURTHER WEST ON THE ECMWF AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS. THIS IS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK (GFS) AND DRY/MILD WEATHER CONTINUING (ECMWF). NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO
THIS BIG DISCREPANCY. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VIS NEXT 24 HOURS ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY KELY/KTPH. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

98/93/93






000
FXUS65 KLKN 232110
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO MOST OF NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN TONIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MILD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
EXTREME WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. NO
HIGHLIGHTS YET AS WINDS WILL BE CLOSE...BUT AT THIS TIME...LOOKS
LIKE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 45 MPH IN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH A BROAD TROF OVER THE WEST. EXPECT THIS TO BE
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WITH TWO DISTINCT SURGES OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH F120 AND
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH F144. BUMPED UP THE POPS FOR SATURDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY...WITH QPF EMPHASIS ON THE SHELDON NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE AND THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA. THESE AREAS CAN
EXPECT A DUSTING OF SNOW AS THE SNOW LEVEL WILL DIP BELOW 6000 FEET
THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS DEPICT WEAK RIDGING
REBOUNDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WOULD RESULT IN 2 DAYS OF
DRY WEATHER AND THEN THE NEXT QPF EPISODE WOULD BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.
IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN QUICKER THAN ADVERTISED...IT WOULD BE VERY
FEASIBLE TO GET QPF WELL SOUTH OF I-80...BUT FOR NOW...THE MODELS
ARE PINGING INTO A NORTHERN CWA EVENT LATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND
KTPH FOR THE ENSUING 24 HR PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH A PACIFIC STORM
MOVING INLAND...EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

87/97







000
FXUS65 KLKN 230923
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
223 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SPREAD THICK CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ANY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED
TO MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NW NEVADA THIS MORNING, WITH
THICK MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THICK CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TODAY, BUT ANY LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY, AND MAINLY NW OF WINNEMUCCA.
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AT 15-25 MPH, AND DESPITE THE CLOUDS, THESE WINDS WILL HELP CONTINUE
THE WARMING TREND WITH MOST VALLEYS SURPASSING 70 DEGREES.

FRIDAY...PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE SW U.S., WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDING SE OF NEVADA, AND A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS IS A WARM PATTERN FOR NEVADA,
WITH WARM SW WINDS FLOWING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 70S TO BE COMMON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH THE WARMEST LOCALES CRACKING 80 DEGREES. WENT FOR A
HIGH OF 77 AT THE ELKO AIRPORT, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE RECORD HIGH
FOR OCTOBER 24TH (80 SET IN 1959) WILL BE THREATENED. FULL
SUNSHINE WILL ADD TO THE WARMTH, WITH THE PACIFIC JET AND ALL
CLOUDS FORCED WELL NORTH OF NEVADA.

SATURDAY...WINDY AND WARM. STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES ON
THE WEST COAST AROUND 5 PM, WITH SW FLOW INCREASING OVER NEVADA.
SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
MOST ZONES, WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH MOST LIKELY IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH MAX TEMPS WILL INTO THE 70S.
ENJOY THIS, A CHILLY REALITY CHECK IS COMING ON SUNDAY.  BT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. EURO IS MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE RESULT THAT
THE EURO HAS COLDER AIR IN IT THAN THE GFS. FOR LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...SUFFICIENT RH AND LOW ENOUGH THICKNESS WILL MEAN SHOW
SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FEET...WITH ACCUMULATIONS. BETWEEN ABOUT
6000 AND 7000 FEET LOOK FOR A DUSTING TO VERY MINOR ACCUMS. BELOW
6000 LIKELY JUST SHOWERS TO A DUSTING. HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING
THE 40S IN NORTHERN NEVADA AND 50S FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 50 TO
INTERSTATE 80. HUMBOLDT COUNTY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN THE NORTH
PART. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LARGELY IN THE 50S AND 60S. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS A SLOW WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE...BUT SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS MEANS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN POPS SO
JUST LOW POPS WARRANTED IN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF THE LONG TERM. BB


&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL KWMC...KEKO...KELY...KTPH THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. MIDDLE LAYERS CIGS WILL FORM OVER KWMC AND KEKO STARTING
LATE MORNING IN KWMC AND MID AFTERNOON KEKO. KWMC WILL SEE SOME
VCSH TOWARD SUNSET THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT ALL
SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BB


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98









000
FXUS65 KLKN 222120
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMING TREND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S THURSDAY AND MID 70S FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING FRIDAY.
WINDS BECOME GUSTY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF HUMBOLDT AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTIES THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SUNNY AND DRY WITH CONTINUED
WARMING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS MOST VALLEY AREAS HIT 75
DEGREES. WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND OREGON EARLY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING WESTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL LOWER INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH WIND GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...LEADING TO BRIEF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
FUELS REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE
WITH TROF AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING ACROSS
NEVADA ON SUNDAY. EC FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. BY 00Z MONDAY...GFS HAS THE FRONT IN EASTERN NV
WHILE EC PLACES IT IN CENTRAL UT. EITHER SOLUTION SUGGEST RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEVADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE EC STRONGEST WITH THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...EC DIGS
A STRONGER AND COLDER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHILE GFS HAS A
"DIRTY" RIDGE WHICH IMPLIES CLOUDY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. THUS
HAVE LOW POPS WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
ZONES DRY WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES FOR DAY 7. TEMPERATURE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND
KTPH THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&

$$

96/87/87







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