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000
FXUS63 KLMK 060452
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1252 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

The rest of the day looks fairly dry with only a small chance of a
stray shower or sprinkle this evening from roughly south central IN
to Louisville to Lexington and points northward.  This is courtesy
of a weak wave riding SSE around the upper low over the Carolinas.

Tonight the upper low will continue to drift further up the east
coast pulling away the low clouds over the region.  Expect clearing
skies tonight with low temps in the mid 40s.

Friday looks to be a dry day with mostly sunny skies and weak sfc
high pressure moving into the area.  High temps will be quite
pleasant in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Most of Friday night looks to be dry as well, however, models still
indicate forcing along a weak inverted trough may be sufficient to
produce some light showery activity very late Fri night into Sat
morning.  Low temps on Fri night should range from the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Saturday...

After some very light showery activity Sat morning, the majority of
Sat afternoon and early evening will remain dry.  A cold front still
looks to drop down Sat night bringing showers/storms to the region.
However, the timing looks slower in the latest model runs.  It looks
like the Louisville Metro would stay dry until after 8pm. Timing
with this front is a bit uncertain and will need to keep an eye on
trends over the next few days, but for now the trend is slower and
later with Sat night showers/storms.

As far as storm strength along the front Sat night, they still look
like they could be strong to perhaps marginally severe. The later
timing would lend to lesser severe chances, but again enough
uncertainty exists to continue to advertise the possibility of
strong storms. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-45 kts, decent low level
lapse rates, and some elevated CAPE would probably pose a gusty wind
threat and maybe some small hail.  Again the best timing on that
would be late evening after 8pm for the Louisville Metro.

High temps on Sat will warm nicely into the upper 70s/lower 80s. Sat
evening temps should fall into the upper 70s, and low temps Sat
night should remain mild in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday - Thursday...

The front will linger over the region Sun/Mon providing 20-30%
chance for continued showers/storms for the beginning of next week.
A more potent upper trough will arrive for Tues bringing a more
unstable airmass and better wind fields for stronger convection.
Will need to watch Tues for possible svr.  The stormy pattern will
continue through mid week with several disturbances progged to cross
the Midwest.  Temps will remain slightly above seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Fri May 6 2016

NNW flow will continue across Kentucky as low pressure becomes
vertically stacked along the mid-Atlantic coast, and high pressure
over the Plains settles along the western Gulf coast. Low clouds
have pushed south and east of the area, and lingering mid-level
clouds should continue to scatter out, so will not carry any
ceilings overnight.

Only interruption to a VFR night would be in LEX, where vis is
already trying to drop into the 8-9SM range and temp/dewpoint
spreads are quite small. Legacy models are not hitting anything, but
hi-res data shows some low-level moisture, and GFS LAMP shows MVFR
visibilities for a time around daybreak. Even with the wind staying
up around 4-5 kt, conditional climatology also supports lower vis,
so will carry a TEMPO MVFR.

Beyond Friday morning, expect VFR conditions with diurnally driven
cu and winds gusting just over 15 kt. Toward the end of the TAF
period, a weak impulse could spark an increase in low clouds and a
few showers toward daybreak Saturday, but expect it to remain north
and east of SDF, and beyond the time range of the LEX TAF.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 052316
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
716 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

The rest of the day looks fairly dry with only a small chance of a
stray shower or sprinkle this evening from roughly south central IN
to Louisville to Lexington and points northward.  This is courtesy
of a weak wave riding SSE around the upper low over the Carolinas.

Tonight the upper low will continue to drift further up the east
coast pulling away the low clouds over the region.  Expect clearing
skies tonight with low temps in the mid 40s.

Friday looks to be a dry day with mostly sunny skies and weak sfc
high pressure moving into the area.  High temps will be quite
pleasant in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Most of Friday night looks to be dry as well, however, models still
indicate forcing along a weak inverted trough may be sufficient to
produce some light showery activity very late Fri night into Sat
morning.  Low temps on Fri night should range from the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Saturday...

After some very light showery activity Sat morning, the majority of
Sat afternoon and early evening will remain dry.  A cold front still
looks to drop down Sat night bringing showers/storms to the region.
However, the timing looks slower in the latest model runs.  It looks
like the Louisville Metro would stay dry until after 8pm. Timing
with this front is a bit uncertain and will need to keep an eye on
trends over the next few days, but for now the trend is slower and
later with Sat night showers/storms.

As far as storm strength along the front Sat night, they still look
like they could be strong to perhaps marginally severe. The later
timing would lend to lesser severe chances, but again enough
uncertainty exists to continue to advertise the possibility of
strong storms. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-45 kts, decent low level
lapse rates, and some elevated CAPE would probably pose a gusty wind
threat and maybe some small hail.  Again the best timing on that
would be late evening after 8pm for the Louisville Metro.

High temps on Sat will warm nicely into the upper 70s/lower 80s. Sat
evening temps should fall into the upper 70s, and low temps Sat
night should remain mild in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday - Thursday...

The front will linger over the region Sun/Mon providing 20-30%
chance for continued showers/storms for the beginning of next week.
A more potent upper trough will arrive for Tues bringing a more
unstable airmass and better wind fields for stronger convection.
Will need to watch Tues for possible svr.  The stormy pattern will
continue through mid week with several disturbances progged to cross
the Midwest.  Temps will remain slightly above seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 715 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Mostly VFR conditions across the region this hour under a steady
northwesterly wind. Have some light rain showers over IN and western
OH, wrapping around an upper low over the Appalachians. These should
dissipate with loss of daytime heating, and anyway are too light to
cause any kind of restrictions at the terminals. Rest of the period
should be VFR. Time-height sections from the RAP model would
indicate some low-level moisture affecting the LEX terminal around
daybreak. Not quite ready to add this to the TAFs, but something to
watch over the next few hours.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 052316
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
716 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

The rest of the day looks fairly dry with only a small chance of a
stray shower or sprinkle this evening from roughly south central IN
to Louisville to Lexington and points northward.  This is courtesy
of a weak wave riding SSE around the upper low over the Carolinas.

Tonight the upper low will continue to drift further up the east
coast pulling away the low clouds over the region.  Expect clearing
skies tonight with low temps in the mid 40s.

Friday looks to be a dry day with mostly sunny skies and weak sfc
high pressure moving into the area.  High temps will be quite
pleasant in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Most of Friday night looks to be dry as well, however, models still
indicate forcing along a weak inverted trough may be sufficient to
produce some light showery activity very late Fri night into Sat
morning.  Low temps on Fri night should range from the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Saturday...

After some very light showery activity Sat morning, the majority of
Sat afternoon and early evening will remain dry.  A cold front still
looks to drop down Sat night bringing showers/storms to the region.
However, the timing looks slower in the latest model runs.  It looks
like the Louisville Metro would stay dry until after 8pm. Timing
with this front is a bit uncertain and will need to keep an eye on
trends over the next few days, but for now the trend is slower and
later with Sat night showers/storms.

As far as storm strength along the front Sat night, they still look
like they could be strong to perhaps marginally severe. The later
timing would lend to lesser severe chances, but again enough
uncertainty exists to continue to advertise the possibility of
strong storms. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-45 kts, decent low level
lapse rates, and some elevated CAPE would probably pose a gusty wind
threat and maybe some small hail.  Again the best timing on that
would be late evening after 8pm for the Louisville Metro.

High temps on Sat will warm nicely into the upper 70s/lower 80s. Sat
evening temps should fall into the upper 70s, and low temps Sat
night should remain mild in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday - Thursday...

The front will linger over the region Sun/Mon providing 20-30%
chance for continued showers/storms for the beginning of next week.
A more potent upper trough will arrive for Tues bringing a more
unstable airmass and better wind fields for stronger convection.
Will need to watch Tues for possible svr.  The stormy pattern will
continue through mid week with several disturbances progged to cross
the Midwest.  Temps will remain slightly above seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 715 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Mostly VFR conditions across the region this hour under a steady
northwesterly wind. Have some light rain showers over IN and western
OH, wrapping around an upper low over the Appalachians. These should
dissipate with loss of daytime heating, and anyway are too light to
cause any kind of restrictions at the terminals. Rest of the period
should be VFR. Time-height sections from the RAP model would
indicate some low-level moisture affecting the LEX terminal around
daybreak. Not quite ready to add this to the TAFs, but something to
watch over the next few hours.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051916
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
316 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

The rest of the day looks fairly dry with only a small chance of a
stray shower or sprinkle this evening from roughly south central IN
to Louisville to Lexington and points northward.  This is courtesy
of a weak wave riding SSE around the upper low over the Carolinas.

Tonight the upper low will continue to drift further up the east
coast pulling away the low clouds over the region.  Expect clearing
skies tonight with low temps in the mid 40s.

Friday looks to be a dry day with mostly sunny skies and weak sfc
high pressure moving into the area.  High temps will be quite
pleasant in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Most of Friday night looks to be dry as well, however, models still
indicate forcing along a weak inverted trough may be sufficient to
produce some light showery activity very late Fri night into Sat
morning.  Low temps on Fri night should range from the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Saturday...

After some very light showery activity Sat morning, the majority of
Sat afternoon and early evening will remain dry.  A cold front still
looks to drop down Sat night bringing showers/storms to the region.
However, the timing looks slower in the latest model runs.  It looks
like the Louisville Metro would stay dry until after 8pm. Timing
with this front is a bit uncertain and will need to keep an eye on
trends over the next few days, but for now the trend is slower and
later with Sat night showers/storms.

As far as storm strength along the front Sat night, they still look
like they could be strong to perhaps marginally severe. The later
timing would lend to lesser severe chances, but again enough
uncertainty exists to continue to advertise the possibility of
strong storms. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-45 kts, decent low level
lapse rates, and some elevated CAPE would probably pose a gusty wind
threat and maybe some small hail.  Again the best timing on that
would be late evening after 8pm for the Louisville Metro.

High temps on Sat will warm nicely into the upper 70s/lower 80s. Sat
evening temps should fall into the upper 70s, and low temps Sat
night should remain mild in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday - Thursday...

The front will linger over the region Sun/Mon providing 20-30%
chance for continued showers/storms for the beginning of next week.
A more potent upper trough will arrive for Tues bringing a more
unstable airmass and better wind fields for stronger convection.
Will need to watch Tues for possible svr.  The stormy pattern will
continue through mid week with several disturbances progged to cross
the Midwest.  Temps will remain slightly above seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period.  Only
exception will be for a couple hours at the start of the TAF period,
which may feature some high-end MVFR cigs.  These will quickly mix
out early this afternoon as drier air works in. A stray shower will
be possible at KLEX later this afternoon, but coverage is not
expected to be very high.  Winds this afternoon will continue out of
the north, with gusts to around 20 knots possible through the
afternoon hours.

Overnight, clouds should decrease in coverage as an upper-level low
pulls off to the east.  NNW winds will also slacken, but should stay
up around 6-8 knots overnight.  They will increase to around 10
knots again on Friday with partly cloudy VFR skies.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051916
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
316 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

The rest of the day looks fairly dry with only a small chance of a
stray shower or sprinkle this evening from roughly south central IN
to Louisville to Lexington and points northward.  This is courtesy
of a weak wave riding SSE around the upper low over the Carolinas.

Tonight the upper low will continue to drift further up the east
coast pulling away the low clouds over the region.  Expect clearing
skies tonight with low temps in the mid 40s.

Friday looks to be a dry day with mostly sunny skies and weak sfc
high pressure moving into the area.  High temps will be quite
pleasant in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Most of Friday night looks to be dry as well, however, models still
indicate forcing along a weak inverted trough may be sufficient to
produce some light showery activity very late Fri night into Sat
morning.  Low temps on Fri night should range from the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Saturday...

After some very light showery activity Sat morning, the majority of
Sat afternoon and early evening will remain dry.  A cold front still
looks to drop down Sat night bringing showers/storms to the region.
However, the timing looks slower in the latest model runs.  It looks
like the Louisville Metro would stay dry until after 8pm. Timing
with this front is a bit uncertain and will need to keep an eye on
trends over the next few days, but for now the trend is slower and
later with Sat night showers/storms.

As far as storm strength along the front Sat night, they still look
like they could be strong to perhaps marginally severe. The later
timing would lend to lesser severe chances, but again enough
uncertainty exists to continue to advertise the possibility of
strong storms. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-45 kts, decent low level
lapse rates, and some elevated CAPE would probably pose a gusty wind
threat and maybe some small hail.  Again the best timing on that
would be late evening after 8pm for the Louisville Metro.

High temps on Sat will warm nicely into the upper 70s/lower 80s. Sat
evening temps should fall into the upper 70s, and low temps Sat
night should remain mild in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday - Thursday...

The front will linger over the region Sun/Mon providing 20-30%
chance for continued showers/storms for the beginning of next week.
A more potent upper trough will arrive for Tues bringing a more
unstable airmass and better wind fields for stronger convection.
Will need to watch Tues for possible svr.  The stormy pattern will
continue through mid week with several disturbances progged to cross
the Midwest.  Temps will remain slightly above seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period.  Only
exception will be for a couple hours at the start of the TAF period,
which may feature some high-end MVFR cigs.  These will quickly mix
out early this afternoon as drier air works in. A stray shower will
be possible at KLEX later this afternoon, but coverage is not
expected to be very high.  Winds this afternoon will continue out of
the north, with gusts to around 20 knots possible through the
afternoon hours.

Overnight, clouds should decrease in coverage as an upper-level low
pulls off to the east.  NNW winds will also slacken, but should stay
up around 6-8 knots overnight.  They will increase to around 10
knots again on Friday with partly cloudy VFR skies.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051719
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
119 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Updated the forecast to remove 20% of rain showers over most areas
through this evening.  The latest model guidance still suggests some
isld shower activity with a shortwave spinning SSE around the upper
low.  Temps look to be limited to mainly the mid to upper 50s.

Issued at 830 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs so that the timing of POPs
leaving central KY to the ESE is a little slower.  Did this based on
morning radar trends and newest high-res model guidance.  Still
nothing more than isld-sct showery activity with another wave
arriving from the north this afternoon providing more isld showers.
High temps still look to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Anomalous closed upper low very close to Cincinnati continues to
dive SSE into eastern Kentucky, with a smattering of showers across
southern Indiana. Main challenge through tonight is the evolution of
POPs with the continued battle between cold pool aloft and mid-level
drying.

Either way, expect unseasonably cool temps and plenty of cloud cover
today into this evening. High chance POPs will be focused mainly on
the morning as the current batch of showers moves through. Have
followed cooler NAM MOS for max temps, as abundant cloud cover will
really inhibit any recovery this afternoon. Another weaker vort
pinwheeling around the low could spark a few more showers late this
afternoon into this evening, but will limit that to a slight chance
in our eastern counties.

Skies will clear late this evening and Friday looks like the pick of
the week with upper ridging trying to build in from the west. After
a cool start, expect plenty of sunshine and temps recovering to near
normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Fairly active and progressive pattern shaping up for the long term,
as we will transition from a NW flow pattern over the weekend to a
mean trof over the Plains and weak ridging over the Southeast CONUS
for much of next week. Forecast confidence, especially in the
specifics and timing, is low to moderate even on Saturday.

A weak impulse late Friday night and Saturday will bring at least
clouds, and perhaps a few showers. Forcing aloft appears weak, as
does the surface reflection, but too much model agreement to
discount. Thus will carry slight chance POPs, mainly across the
Bluegrass region.

Later Saturday a stronger wave dives into the Great Lakes, pushing a
surface cold front southward across Indiana. Exactly when and how
far south this boundary fires on Saturday afternoon will be crucial,
and the GFS/ECMWF both agree on getting precip as far south as the I-
64 corridor by 00Z Sunday, but it`s worth noting that the NAM12 is
noticeably slower, and holds off until later in the evening. Will
favor the warmer NAM MOS for Sat highs as temps tend to overachieve
in this pre-frontal regime. This will support marginal instability
in the presence of enough deep-layer shear to fuel a few strong
storms. This system certainly bears watch for timing, especially
relative to any outdoor plans late Sat afternoon into the evening.

Carried likely POPs Saturday night as showers and storms should
spread south across most of the area. Sunday is a transitional day
as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly, heralding a more humid
and unsettled pattern. Expect rounds of showers and storms, but any
individual impulses are too difficult to time this far out.
Therefore POPs for any given period are limited to chance, and no
day can yet be pegged as a washout. Temps will run on the high side
of climo, especially by night with a humid air mass and ample cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period.  Only
exception will be for a couple hours at the start of the TAF period,
which may feature some high-end MVFR cigs.  These will quickly mix
out early this afternoon as drier air works in. A stray shower will
be possible at KLEX later this afternoon, but coverage is not
expected to be very high.  Winds this afternoon will continue out of
the north, with gusts to around 20 knots possible through the
afternoon hours.

Overnight, clouds should decrease in coverage as an upper-level low
pulls off to the east.  NNW winds will also slacken, but should stay
up around 6-8 knots overnight.  They will increase to around 10
knots again on Friday with partly cloudy VFR skies.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051719
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
119 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Updated the forecast to remove 20% of rain showers over most areas
through this evening.  The latest model guidance still suggests some
isld shower activity with a shortwave spinning SSE around the upper
low.  Temps look to be limited to mainly the mid to upper 50s.

Issued at 830 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs so that the timing of POPs
leaving central KY to the ESE is a little slower.  Did this based on
morning radar trends and newest high-res model guidance.  Still
nothing more than isld-sct showery activity with another wave
arriving from the north this afternoon providing more isld showers.
High temps still look to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Anomalous closed upper low very close to Cincinnati continues to
dive SSE into eastern Kentucky, with a smattering of showers across
southern Indiana. Main challenge through tonight is the evolution of
POPs with the continued battle between cold pool aloft and mid-level
drying.

Either way, expect unseasonably cool temps and plenty of cloud cover
today into this evening. High chance POPs will be focused mainly on
the morning as the current batch of showers moves through. Have
followed cooler NAM MOS for max temps, as abundant cloud cover will
really inhibit any recovery this afternoon. Another weaker vort
pinwheeling around the low could spark a few more showers late this
afternoon into this evening, but will limit that to a slight chance
in our eastern counties.

Skies will clear late this evening and Friday looks like the pick of
the week with upper ridging trying to build in from the west. After
a cool start, expect plenty of sunshine and temps recovering to near
normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Fairly active and progressive pattern shaping up for the long term,
as we will transition from a NW flow pattern over the weekend to a
mean trof over the Plains and weak ridging over the Southeast CONUS
for much of next week. Forecast confidence, especially in the
specifics and timing, is low to moderate even on Saturday.

A weak impulse late Friday night and Saturday will bring at least
clouds, and perhaps a few showers. Forcing aloft appears weak, as
does the surface reflection, but too much model agreement to
discount. Thus will carry slight chance POPs, mainly across the
Bluegrass region.

Later Saturday a stronger wave dives into the Great Lakes, pushing a
surface cold front southward across Indiana. Exactly when and how
far south this boundary fires on Saturday afternoon will be crucial,
and the GFS/ECMWF both agree on getting precip as far south as the I-
64 corridor by 00Z Sunday, but it`s worth noting that the NAM12 is
noticeably slower, and holds off until later in the evening. Will
favor the warmer NAM MOS for Sat highs as temps tend to overachieve
in this pre-frontal regime. This will support marginal instability
in the presence of enough deep-layer shear to fuel a few strong
storms. This system certainly bears watch for timing, especially
relative to any outdoor plans late Sat afternoon into the evening.

Carried likely POPs Saturday night as showers and storms should
spread south across most of the area. Sunday is a transitional day
as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly, heralding a more humid
and unsettled pattern. Expect rounds of showers and storms, but any
individual impulses are too difficult to time this far out.
Therefore POPs for any given period are limited to chance, and no
day can yet be pegged as a washout. Temps will run on the high side
of climo, especially by night with a humid air mass and ample cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period.  Only
exception will be for a couple hours at the start of the TAF period,
which may feature some high-end MVFR cigs.  These will quickly mix
out early this afternoon as drier air works in. A stray shower will
be possible at KLEX later this afternoon, but coverage is not
expected to be very high.  Winds this afternoon will continue out of
the north, with gusts to around 20 knots possible through the
afternoon hours.

Overnight, clouds should decrease in coverage as an upper-level low
pulls off to the east.  NNW winds will also slacken, but should stay
up around 6-8 knots overnight.  They will increase to around 10
knots again on Friday with partly cloudy VFR skies.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051658
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1258 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 830 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs so that the timing of POPs
leaving central KY to the ESE is a little slower.  Did this based on
morning radar trends and newest high-res model guidance.  Still
nothing more than isld-sct showery activity with another wave
arriving from the north this afternoon providing more isld showers.
High temps still look to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Anomalous closed upper low very close to Cincinnati continues to
dive SSE into eastern Kentucky, with a smattering of showers across
southern Indiana. Main challenge through tonight is the evolution of
POPs with the continued battle between cold pool aloft and mid-level
drying.

Either way, expect unseasonably cool temps and plenty of cloud cover
today into this evening. High chance POPs will be focused mainly on
the morning as the current batch of showers moves through. Have
followed cooler NAM MOS for max temps, as abundant cloud cover will
really inhibit any recovery this afternoon. Another weaker vort
pinwheeling around the low could spark a few more showers late this
afternoon into this evening, but will limit that to a slight chance
in our eastern counties.

Skies will clear late this evening and Friday looks like the pick of
the week with upper ridging trying to build in from the west. After
a cool start, expect plenty of sunshine and temps recovering to near
normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Fairly active and progressive pattern shaping up for the long term,
as we will transition from a NW flow pattern over the weekend to a
mean trof over the Plains and weak ridging over the Southeast CONUS
for much of next week. Forecast confidence, especially in the
specifics and timing, is low to moderate even on Saturday.

A weak impulse late Friday night and Saturday will bring at least
clouds, and perhaps a few showers. Forcing aloft appears weak, as
does the surface reflection, but too much model agreement to
discount. Thus will carry slight chance POPs, mainly across the
Bluegrass region.

Later Saturday a stronger wave dives into the Great Lakes, pushing a
surface cold front southward across Indiana. Exactly when and how
far south this boundary fires on Saturday afternoon will be crucial,
and the GFS/ECMWF both agree on getting precip as far south as the I-
64 corridor by 00Z Sunday, but it`s worth noting that the NAM12 is
noticeably slower, and holds off until later in the evening. Will
favor the warmer NAM MOS for Sat highs as temps tend to overachieve
in this pre-frontal regime. This will support marginal instability
in the presence of enough deep-layer shear to fuel a few strong
storms. This system certainly bears watch for timing, especially
relative to any outdoor plans late Sat afternoon into the evening.

Carried likely POPs Saturday night as showers and storms should
spread south across most of the area. Sunday is a transitional day
as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly, heralding a more humid
and unsettled pattern. Expect rounds of showers and storms, but any
individual impulses are too difficult to time this far out.
Therefore POPs for any given period are limited to chance, and no
day can yet be pegged as a washout. Temps will run on the high side
of climo, especially by night with a humid air mass and ample cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period.  Only
exception will be for a couple hours at the start of the TAF period,
which may feature some high-end MVFR cigs.  These will quickly mix
out early this afternoon as drier air works in. A stray shower will
be possible at KLEX later this afternoon, but coverage is not
expected to be very high.  Winds this afternoon will continue out of
the north, with gusts to around 20 knots possible through the
afternoon hours.

Overnight, clouds should decrease in coverage as an upper-level low
pulls off to the east.  NNW winds will also slacken, but should stay
up around 6-8 knots overnight.  They will increase to around 10
knots again on Friday with partly cloudy VFR skies.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051658
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1258 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 830 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs so that the timing of POPs
leaving central KY to the ESE is a little slower.  Did this based on
morning radar trends and newest high-res model guidance.  Still
nothing more than isld-sct showery activity with another wave
arriving from the north this afternoon providing more isld showers.
High temps still look to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Anomalous closed upper low very close to Cincinnati continues to
dive SSE into eastern Kentucky, with a smattering of showers across
southern Indiana. Main challenge through tonight is the evolution of
POPs with the continued battle between cold pool aloft and mid-level
drying.

Either way, expect unseasonably cool temps and plenty of cloud cover
today into this evening. High chance POPs will be focused mainly on
the morning as the current batch of showers moves through. Have
followed cooler NAM MOS for max temps, as abundant cloud cover will
really inhibit any recovery this afternoon. Another weaker vort
pinwheeling around the low could spark a few more showers late this
afternoon into this evening, but will limit that to a slight chance
in our eastern counties.

Skies will clear late this evening and Friday looks like the pick of
the week with upper ridging trying to build in from the west. After
a cool start, expect plenty of sunshine and temps recovering to near
normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Fairly active and progressive pattern shaping up for the long term,
as we will transition from a NW flow pattern over the weekend to a
mean trof over the Plains and weak ridging over the Southeast CONUS
for much of next week. Forecast confidence, especially in the
specifics and timing, is low to moderate even on Saturday.

A weak impulse late Friday night and Saturday will bring at least
clouds, and perhaps a few showers. Forcing aloft appears weak, as
does the surface reflection, but too much model agreement to
discount. Thus will carry slight chance POPs, mainly across the
Bluegrass region.

Later Saturday a stronger wave dives into the Great Lakes, pushing a
surface cold front southward across Indiana. Exactly when and how
far south this boundary fires on Saturday afternoon will be crucial,
and the GFS/ECMWF both agree on getting precip as far south as the I-
64 corridor by 00Z Sunday, but it`s worth noting that the NAM12 is
noticeably slower, and holds off until later in the evening. Will
favor the warmer NAM MOS for Sat highs as temps tend to overachieve
in this pre-frontal regime. This will support marginal instability
in the presence of enough deep-layer shear to fuel a few strong
storms. This system certainly bears watch for timing, especially
relative to any outdoor plans late Sat afternoon into the evening.

Carried likely POPs Saturday night as showers and storms should
spread south across most of the area. Sunday is a transitional day
as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly, heralding a more humid
and unsettled pattern. Expect rounds of showers and storms, but any
individual impulses are too difficult to time this far out.
Therefore POPs for any given period are limited to chance, and no
day can yet be pegged as a washout. Temps will run on the high side
of climo, especially by night with a humid air mass and ample cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 PM EDT Thu May 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period.  Only
exception will be for a couple hours at the start of the TAF period,
which may feature some high-end MVFR cigs.  These will quickly mix
out early this afternoon as drier air works in. A stray shower will
be possible at KLEX later this afternoon, but coverage is not
expected to be very high.  Winds this afternoon will continue out of
the north, with gusts to around 20 knots possible through the
afternoon hours.

Overnight, clouds should decrease in coverage as an upper-level low
pulls off to the east.  NNW winds will also slacken, but should stay
up around 6-8 knots overnight.  They will increase to around 10
knots again on Friday with partly cloudy VFR skies.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051232
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
832 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 830 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs so that the timing of POPs
leaving central KY to the ESE is a little slower.  Did this based on
morning radar trends and newest high-res model guidance.  Still
nothing more than isld-sct showery activity with another wave
arriving from the north this afternoon providing more isld showers.
High temps still look to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Anomalous closed upper low very close to Cincinnati continues to
dive SSE into eastern Kentucky, with a smattering of showers across
southern Indiana. Main challenge through tonight is the evolution of
POPs with the continued battle between cold pool aloft and mid-level
drying.

Either way, expect unseasonably cool temps and plenty of cloud cover
today into this evening. High chance POPs will be focused mainly on
the morning as the current batch of showers moves through. Have
followed cooler NAM MOS for max temps, as abundant cloud cover will
really inhibit any recovery this afternoon. Another weaker vort
pinwheeling around the low could spark a few more showers late this
afternoon into this evening, but will limit that to a slight chance
in our eastern counties.

Skies will clear late this evening and Friday looks like the pick of
the week with upper ridging trying to build in from the west. After
a cool start, expect plenty of sunshine and temps recovering to near
normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Fairly active and progressive pattern shaping up for the long term,
as we will transition from a NW flow pattern over the weekend to a
mean trof over the Plains and weak ridging over the Southeast CONUS
for much of next week. Forecast confidence, especially in the
specifics and timing, is low to moderate even on Saturday.

A weak impulse late Friday night and Saturday will bring at least
clouds, and perhaps a few showers. Forcing aloft appears weak, as
does the surface reflection, but too much model agreement to
discount. Thus will carry slight chance POPs, mainly across the
Bluegrass region.

Later Saturday a stronger wave dives into the Great Lakes, pushing a
surface cold front southward across Indiana. Exactly when and how
far south this boundary fires on Saturday afternoon will be crucial,
and the GFS/ECMWF both agree on getting precip as far south as the I-
64 corridor by 00Z Sunday, but it`s worth noting that the NAM12 is
noticeably slower, and holds off until later in the evening. Will
favor the warmer NAM MOS for Sat highs as temps tend to overachieve
in this pre-frontal regime. This will support marginal instability
in the presence of enough deep-layer shear to fuel a few strong
storms. This system certainly bears watch for timing, especially
relative to any outdoor plans late Sat afternoon into the evening.

Carried likely POPs Saturday night as showers and storms should
spread south across most of the area. Sunday is a transitional day
as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly, heralding a more humid
and unsettled pattern. Expect rounds of showers and storms, but any
individual impulses are too difficult to time this far out.
Therefore POPs for any given period are limited to chance, and no
day can yet be pegged as a washout. Temps will run on the high side
of climo, especially by night with a humid air mass and ample cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 612 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Clouds in association with an upper low moving overhead will pass
over the airports today. Ceilings will start out below fuel
alternate at SDF and LEX before slowly improving to low-end VFR by
this afternoon. Bases probably won`t be quite as low at BWG but
there will still be the possibility of MVFR stratocu there this
morning.

Winds will come in from the northwest and could get just a little
frisky at times, gusting into the 15-20kt range.

A batch of light rain showers will move through during the first few
hours of the TAF period, especially at LEX and SDF. Additional
scattered shower development will be possible around LEX this
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051232
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
832 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 830 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs so that the timing of POPs
leaving central KY to the ESE is a little slower.  Did this based on
morning radar trends and newest high-res model guidance.  Still
nothing more than isld-sct showery activity with another wave
arriving from the north this afternoon providing more isld showers.
High temps still look to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Anomalous closed upper low very close to Cincinnati continues to
dive SSE into eastern Kentucky, with a smattering of showers across
southern Indiana. Main challenge through tonight is the evolution of
POPs with the continued battle between cold pool aloft and mid-level
drying.

Either way, expect unseasonably cool temps and plenty of cloud cover
today into this evening. High chance POPs will be focused mainly on
the morning as the current batch of showers moves through. Have
followed cooler NAM MOS for max temps, as abundant cloud cover will
really inhibit any recovery this afternoon. Another weaker vort
pinwheeling around the low could spark a few more showers late this
afternoon into this evening, but will limit that to a slight chance
in our eastern counties.

Skies will clear late this evening and Friday looks like the pick of
the week with upper ridging trying to build in from the west. After
a cool start, expect plenty of sunshine and temps recovering to near
normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Fairly active and progressive pattern shaping up for the long term,
as we will transition from a NW flow pattern over the weekend to a
mean trof over the Plains and weak ridging over the Southeast CONUS
for much of next week. Forecast confidence, especially in the
specifics and timing, is low to moderate even on Saturday.

A weak impulse late Friday night and Saturday will bring at least
clouds, and perhaps a few showers. Forcing aloft appears weak, as
does the surface reflection, but too much model agreement to
discount. Thus will carry slight chance POPs, mainly across the
Bluegrass region.

Later Saturday a stronger wave dives into the Great Lakes, pushing a
surface cold front southward across Indiana. Exactly when and how
far south this boundary fires on Saturday afternoon will be crucial,
and the GFS/ECMWF both agree on getting precip as far south as the I-
64 corridor by 00Z Sunday, but it`s worth noting that the NAM12 is
noticeably slower, and holds off until later in the evening. Will
favor the warmer NAM MOS for Sat highs as temps tend to overachieve
in this pre-frontal regime. This will support marginal instability
in the presence of enough deep-layer shear to fuel a few strong
storms. This system certainly bears watch for timing, especially
relative to any outdoor plans late Sat afternoon into the evening.

Carried likely POPs Saturday night as showers and storms should
spread south across most of the area. Sunday is a transitional day
as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly, heralding a more humid
and unsettled pattern. Expect rounds of showers and storms, but any
individual impulses are too difficult to time this far out.
Therefore POPs for any given period are limited to chance, and no
day can yet be pegged as a washout. Temps will run on the high side
of climo, especially by night with a humid air mass and ample cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 612 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Clouds in association with an upper low moving overhead will pass
over the airports today. Ceilings will start out below fuel
alternate at SDF and LEX before slowly improving to low-end VFR by
this afternoon. Bases probably won`t be quite as low at BWG but
there will still be the possibility of MVFR stratocu there this
morning.

Winds will come in from the northwest and could get just a little
frisky at times, gusting into the 15-20kt range.

A batch of light rain showers will move through during the first few
hours of the TAF period, especially at LEX and SDF. Additional
scattered shower development will be possible around LEX this
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051012
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
612 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Anomalous closed upper low very close to Cincinnati continues to
dive SSE into eastern Kentucky, with a smattering of showers across
southern Indiana. Main challenge through tonight is the evolution of
POPs with the continued battle between cold pool aloft and mid-level
drying.

Either way, expect unseasonably cool temps and plenty of cloud cover
today into this evening. High chance POPs will be focused mainly on
the morning as the current batch of showers moves through. Have
followed cooler NAM MOS for max temps, as abundant cloud cover will
really inhibit any recovery this afternoon. Another weaker vort
pinwheeling around the low could spark a few more showers late this
afternoon into this evening, but will limit that to a slight chance
in our eastern counties.

Skies will clear late this evening and Friday looks like the pick of
the week with upper ridging trying to build in from the west. After
a cool start, expect plenty of sunshine and temps recovering to near
normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Fairly active and progressive pattern shaping up for the long term,
as we will transition from a NW flow pattern over the weekend to a
mean trof over the Plains and weak ridging over the Southeast CONUS
for much of next week. Forecast confidence, especially in the
specifics and timing, is low to moderate even on Saturday.

A weak impulse late Friday night and Saturday will bring at least
clouds, and perhaps a few showers. Forcing aloft appears weak, as
does the surface reflection, but too much model agreement to
discount. Thus will carry slight chance POPs, mainly across the
Bluegrass region.

Later Saturday a stronger wave dives into the Great Lakes, pushing a
surface cold front southward across Indiana. Exactly when and how
far south this boundary fires on Saturday afternoon will be crucial,
and the GFS/ECMWF both agree on getting precip as far south as the I-
64 corridor by 00Z Sunday, but it`s worth noting that the NAM12 is
noticeably slower, and holds off until later in the evening. Will
favor the warmer NAM MOS for Sat highs as temps tend to overachieve
in this pre-frontal regime. This will support marginal instability
in the presence of enough deep-layer shear to fuel a few strong
storms. This system certainly bears watch for timing, especially
relative to any outdoor plans late Sat afternoon into the evening.

Carried likely POPs Saturday night as showers and storms should
spread south across most of the area. Sunday is a transitional day
as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly, heralding a more humid
and unsettled pattern. Expect rounds of showers and storms, but any
individual impulses are too difficult to time this far out.
Therefore POPs for any given period are limited to chance, and no
day can yet be pegged as a washout. Temps will run on the high side
of climo, especially by night with a humid air mass and ample cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 612 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Clouds in association with an upper low moving overhead will pass
over the airports today. Ceilings will start out below fuel
alternate at SDF and LEX before slowly improving to low-end VFR by
this afternoon. Bases probably won`t be quite as low at BWG but
there will still be the possibility of MVFR stratocu there this
morning.

Winds will come in from the northwest and could get just a little
frisky at times, gusting into the 15-20kt range.

A batch of light rain showers will move through during the first few
hours of the TAF period, especially at LEX and SDF. Additional
scattered shower development will be possible around LEX this
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051012
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
612 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Anomalous closed upper low very close to Cincinnati continues to
dive SSE into eastern Kentucky, with a smattering of showers across
southern Indiana. Main challenge through tonight is the evolution of
POPs with the continued battle between cold pool aloft and mid-level
drying.

Either way, expect unseasonably cool temps and plenty of cloud cover
today into this evening. High chance POPs will be focused mainly on
the morning as the current batch of showers moves through. Have
followed cooler NAM MOS for max temps, as abundant cloud cover will
really inhibit any recovery this afternoon. Another weaker vort
pinwheeling around the low could spark a few more showers late this
afternoon into this evening, but will limit that to a slight chance
in our eastern counties.

Skies will clear late this evening and Friday looks like the pick of
the week with upper ridging trying to build in from the west. After
a cool start, expect plenty of sunshine and temps recovering to near
normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Fairly active and progressive pattern shaping up for the long term,
as we will transition from a NW flow pattern over the weekend to a
mean trof over the Plains and weak ridging over the Southeast CONUS
for much of next week. Forecast confidence, especially in the
specifics and timing, is low to moderate even on Saturday.

A weak impulse late Friday night and Saturday will bring at least
clouds, and perhaps a few showers. Forcing aloft appears weak, as
does the surface reflection, but too much model agreement to
discount. Thus will carry slight chance POPs, mainly across the
Bluegrass region.

Later Saturday a stronger wave dives into the Great Lakes, pushing a
surface cold front southward across Indiana. Exactly when and how
far south this boundary fires on Saturday afternoon will be crucial,
and the GFS/ECMWF both agree on getting precip as far south as the I-
64 corridor by 00Z Sunday, but it`s worth noting that the NAM12 is
noticeably slower, and holds off until later in the evening. Will
favor the warmer NAM MOS for Sat highs as temps tend to overachieve
in this pre-frontal regime. This will support marginal instability
in the presence of enough deep-layer shear to fuel a few strong
storms. This system certainly bears watch for timing, especially
relative to any outdoor plans late Sat afternoon into the evening.

Carried likely POPs Saturday night as showers and storms should
spread south across most of the area. Sunday is a transitional day
as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly, heralding a more humid
and unsettled pattern. Expect rounds of showers and storms, but any
individual impulses are too difficult to time this far out.
Therefore POPs for any given period are limited to chance, and no
day can yet be pegged as a washout. Temps will run on the high side
of climo, especially by night with a humid air mass and ample cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 612 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Clouds in association with an upper low moving overhead will pass
over the airports today. Ceilings will start out below fuel
alternate at SDF and LEX before slowly improving to low-end VFR by
this afternoon. Bases probably won`t be quite as low at BWG but
there will still be the possibility of MVFR stratocu there this
morning.

Winds will come in from the northwest and could get just a little
frisky at times, gusting into the 15-20kt range.

A batch of light rain showers will move through during the first few
hours of the TAF period, especially at LEX and SDF. Additional
scattered shower development will be possible around LEX this
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 050704
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
304 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Anomalous closed upper low very close to Cincinnati continues to
dive SSE into eastern Kentucky, with a smattering of showers across
southern Indiana. Main challenge through tonight is the evolution of
POPs with the continued battle between cold pool aloft and mid-level
drying.

Either way, expect unseasonably cool temps and plenty of cloud cover
today into this evening. High chance POPs will be focused mainly on
the morning as the current batch of showers moves through. Have
followed cooler NAM MOS for max temps, as abundant cloud cover will
really inhibit any recovery this afternoon. Another weaker vort
pinwheeling around the low could spark a few more showers late this
afternoon into this evening, but will limit that to a slight chance
in our eastern counties.

Skies will clear late this evening and Friday looks like the pick of
the week with upper ridging trying to build in from the west. After
a cool start, expect plenty of sunshine and temps recovering to near
normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Fairly active and progressive pattern shaping up for the long term,
as we will transition from a NW flow pattern over the weekend to a
mean trof over the Plains and weak ridging over the Southeast CONUS
for much of next week. Forecast confidence, especially in the
specifics and timing, is low to moderate even on Saturday.

A weak impulse late Friday night and Saturday will bring at least
clouds, and perhaps a few showers. Forcing aloft appears weak, as
does the surface reflection, but too much model agreement to
discount. Thus will carry slight chance POPs, mainly across the
Bluegrass region.

Later Saturday a stronger wave dives into the Great Lakes, pushing a
surface cold front southward across Indiana. Exactly when and how
far south this boundary fires on Saturday afternoon will be crucial,
and the GFS/ECMWF both agree on getting precip as far south as the I-
64 corridor by 00Z Sunday, but it`s worth noting that the NAM12 is
noticeably slower, and holds off until later in the evening. Will
favor the warmer NAM MOS for Sat highs as temps tend to overachieve
in this pre-frontal regime. This will support marginal instability
in the presence of enough deep-layer shear to fuel a few strong
storms. This system certainly bears watch for timing, especially
relative to any outdoor plans late Sat afternoon into the evening.

Carried likely POPs Saturday night as showers and storms should
spread south across most of the area. Sunday is a transitional day
as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly, heralding a more humid
and unsettled pattern. Expect rounds of showers and storms, but any
individual impulses are too difficult to time this far out.
Therefore POPs for any given period are limited to chance, and no
day can yet be pegged as a washout. Temps will run on the high side
of climo, especially by night with a humid air mass and ample cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

An area of light rain associated with an upper low sinking from
Indiana into Kentucky will move through the TAF sites early this
morning, especially SDF and LEX. Model data and upstream obs support
a chance of MVFR ceilings for a few hours around dawn.

Sratocu ceilings will very slowly rise today, becoming low-end VFR
by afternoon. A few showers will be possible this afternoon and
evening but should not be significant for aviation.

Winds during the daylight hours today will come in from the
northwest, possibly gusting to 15-20kt.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 050511
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
111 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Forecast was updated based on recent radar trends and cloud cover.
Initial wave that sparked a few lines of showers and storms has
since passed through the area. Add in waning daytime heating, and
most of the convection has dissipated. As a result, the threat for
small to marginally severe hail has ended. Expect a generally dry
evening outside a stray shower or two.

Another upper level wave will pivot into southern Indiana and
central Kentucky overnight which will be the forcing to spark
another round of light rain showers or sprinkles, along with
increased cloud cover. This along with steady northwest winds, may
act to keep temperatures up a bit higher than currently forecast,
but with such a cold air mass in place, will hold onto current
forecast right now.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peek through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

An area of light rain associated with an upper low sinking from
Indiana into Kentucky will move through the TAF sites early this
morning, especially SDF and LEX. Model data and upstream obs support
a chance of MVFR ceilings for a few hours around dawn.

Sratocu ceilings will very slowly rise today, becoming low-end VFR
by afternoon. A few showers will be possible this afternoon and
evening but should not be significant for aviation.

Winds during the daylight hours today will come in from the
northwest, possibly gusting to 15-20kt.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 050511
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
111 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Forecast was updated based on recent radar trends and cloud cover.
Initial wave that sparked a few lines of showers and storms has
since passed through the area. Add in waning daytime heating, and
most of the convection has dissipated. As a result, the threat for
small to marginally severe hail has ended. Expect a generally dry
evening outside a stray shower or two.

Another upper level wave will pivot into southern Indiana and
central Kentucky overnight which will be the forcing to spark
another round of light rain showers or sprinkles, along with
increased cloud cover. This along with steady northwest winds, may
act to keep temperatures up a bit higher than currently forecast,
but with such a cold air mass in place, will hold onto current
forecast right now.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peek through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

An area of light rain associated with an upper low sinking from
Indiana into Kentucky will move through the TAF sites early this
morning, especially SDF and LEX. Model data and upstream obs support
a chance of MVFR ceilings for a few hours around dawn.

Sratocu ceilings will very slowly rise today, becoming low-end VFR
by afternoon. A few showers will be possible this afternoon and
evening but should not be significant for aviation.

Winds during the daylight hours today will come in from the
northwest, possibly gusting to 15-20kt.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 042348
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
748 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Forecast was updated based on recent radar trends and cloud cover.
Initial wave that sparked a few lines of showers and storms has
since passed through the area. Add in waning daytime heating, and
most of the convection has dissipated. As a result, the threat for
small to marginally severe hail has ended. Expect a generally dry
evening outside a stray shower or two.

Another upper level wave will pivot into southern Indiana and
central Kentucky overnight which will be the forcing to spark
another round of light rain showers or sprinkles, along with
increased cloud cover. This along with steady northwest winds, may
act to keep temperatures up a bit higher than currently forecast,
but with such a cold air mass in place, will hold onto current
forecast right now.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peak through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 710 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Plan on VFR conditions this evening as first upper level wave has
passed through central Kentucky. Latest satellite imagery shows
diurnal strato-cu upstream, so some of this will dissipate after
00z. However, another upper level wave will swing into north-central
Kentucky late overnight into the first part of Thursday morning.
This will bring MVFR ceilings, likely just under fuel-alternate
levels, and the chance for sprinkles or light rain showers. This
would most likely impact SDF/LEX.

Expect the lower ceilings to persist through most of Thursday
morning, then improve to VFR by afternoon as the wave passes the
area. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest again with gusts
to near 20 kts likely.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 042348
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
748 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Forecast was updated based on recent radar trends and cloud cover.
Initial wave that sparked a few lines of showers and storms has
since passed through the area. Add in waning daytime heating, and
most of the convection has dissipated. As a result, the threat for
small to marginally severe hail has ended. Expect a generally dry
evening outside a stray shower or two.

Another upper level wave will pivot into southern Indiana and
central Kentucky overnight which will be the forcing to spark
another round of light rain showers or sprinkles, along with
increased cloud cover. This along with steady northwest winds, may
act to keep temperatures up a bit higher than currently forecast,
but with such a cold air mass in place, will hold onto current
forecast right now.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peak through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 710 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Plan on VFR conditions this evening as first upper level wave has
passed through central Kentucky. Latest satellite imagery shows
diurnal strato-cu upstream, so some of this will dissipate after
00z. However, another upper level wave will swing into north-central
Kentucky late overnight into the first part of Thursday morning.
This will bring MVFR ceilings, likely just under fuel-alternate
levels, and the chance for sprinkles or light rain showers. This
would most likely impact SDF/LEX.

Expect the lower ceilings to persist through most of Thursday
morning, then improve to VFR by afternoon as the wave passes the
area. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest again with gusts
to near 20 kts likely.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 042317
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
717 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peak through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 710 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Plan on VFR conditions this evening as first upper level wave has
passed through central Kentucky. Latest satellite imagery shows
diurnal strato-cu upstream, so some of this will dissipate after
00z. However, another upper level wave will swing into north-central
Kentucky late overnight into the first part of Thursday morning.
This will bring MVFR ceilings, likely just under fuel-alternate
levels, and the chance for sprinkles or light rain showers. This
would most likely impact SDF/LEX.

Expect the lower ceilings to persist through most of Thursday
morning, then improve to VFR by afternoon as the wave passes the
area. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest again with gusts
to near 20 kts likely.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 042317
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
717 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peak through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 710 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Plan on VFR conditions this evening as first upper level wave has
passed through central Kentucky. Latest satellite imagery shows
diurnal strato-cu upstream, so some of this will dissipate after
00z. However, another upper level wave will swing into north-central
Kentucky late overnight into the first part of Thursday morning.
This will bring MVFR ceilings, likely just under fuel-alternate
levels, and the chance for sprinkles or light rain showers. This
would most likely impact SDF/LEX.

Expect the lower ceilings to persist through most of Thursday
morning, then improve to VFR by afternoon as the wave passes the
area. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest again with gusts
to near 20 kts likely.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 041917
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peak through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 130 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Steady rain was still moving through BWG/LEX as of 1730Z
occasionally reducing flight conditions to IFR or MVFR.  This line
of showers will exit BWG/LEX within the next few hours.  Behind the
line, a cold front and multiple other boundaries exist which will
provide focus for showers and sct storms this afternoon.  Due to
lower coverage and low confidence in a t-storm hitting a TAF site,
will continue VCSH through this evening.  A wind shift with the
front will occur this afternoon from SW to NW.  Winds could also
become gusty especially behind the front up to 20-25 mph this
afternoon or evening.

Tonight VFR conditions should prevail for a good portion of the
overnight period.  However, low clouds will move back into the
region with perhaps some stray showers as well especially toward
sunrise.  Will include MVFR for tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 041738
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
138 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs, temps, and sky cover a bit for
late this morning and afternoon based on this morning`s trends. The
line of showers over southern Indiana is expected to continue to
push ESE through the area through this afternoon with scattered
convection bubbling up behind it along the actual front.  The
initial line and/or convection behind the initial precip line may
grow upscale a bit this afternoon enough to cause small to
marginally severe hail.  Convection is expected to diminish by this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

...Showers and Storms with Small Hail This Afternoon...

The bulk of the region remains in the subsident wake of a passing
shortwave thru the pre-dawn hours, however the lull in precipitation
will be short-lived. As we move into the daylight hours, focus will
shift to an anomalous vorticity maximum evident on water vapor
imagery dropping out of the upper Midwest. As the exit region of a
100 knot upper jet moves into the lower Ohio Valley just after
daybreak, the associated low level response in the form of a 30 knot
low level jet will create an isentropic lift component over our
region. This will create a widespread shield of light to moderate
rain showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) sliding southeast
through our region from just after day break through midday. The
evidence of what will occur is already ongoing over northern IL/IN.

Just behind the stratiform rain shield, a sharp cold front will
follow with steady NW surface winds (NW gusts up around 20-25 mph).
With steepening mid level lapse rates underneath the approaching
closed upper low, and perhaps some surface heating in the afternoon,
numerous instability driven showers and storms will develop late
morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show freezing levels
in the 6 to 7 K foot range which will easily support small hail in
many showers given modest instability up through 20-25 thousand
feet. Can`t rule out a few larger hail producers if some afternoon
surface heating is realized.

Forecast models are in excellent agreement with today`s evolution
and timing, which puts initial batch of showers along the I-65
corridor around midday, and along the I-75 corridor by early to mid
afternoon. The instability based showers/storms will then follow
from southern IN into central KY through early and mid afternoon.
Precipitaton should then exit our east by early evening. Most spots
should expect around .25" - .33" inches of rain through the day.
Will continue with high pops given confidence in pattern/coverage,
and current radar presentation upstream. Highs today will be in the
low 60s. It`s also worth noting that a cold air funnel can`t be
ruled out in the post frontal regime underneath the upper low this
afternoon/evening.

Tonight - Thursday...

Closed upper low slides right over the region tonight and into the
Carolina Coast by late Thursday. Enough low level moisture should be
around for isolated to widely scattered rain showers mainly across
our east. This will be a cool period with lows tonight in the 40 to
45 degree range, and highs on Thursday in the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Thursday Night - Friday...

Highly amplified upper pattern features expansive closed lows over
the western and eastern coasts, with a blocking upper ridge over the
center part of the CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be in the deep
norhterly flow between eastern closed low and upper ridge to end the
week. With surface high pressure in place and a lack of moisture,
this will be a dry period with lows Thursday night in the mid 40s.
With rising heights/thicknesses on Friday, temps will rise to the
lower 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday...

The upper ridge begins to break down as we head into the weekend in
response to another shortwave diving through Ontario into the Great
Lakes. As this occurs, a frontal boundary will slide toward the Ohio
River by late on Saturday. With surface high pressure still holding
on, this should also be a mostly dry period. However, cannot rule
out a few sprinkles Friday night. By late Saturday afternoon and
evening, scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible along and north of the Ohio River. At this point, it looks
like any precipitation activity should hold off in the Louisville
region until after 8 PM EDT, but do have to introduce a 20% chance
of a shower early evening.

Friday night lows will be milder than previous nights with readings
in the low to mid 50s. Saturday highs should be able to top out in
the low 80s before upper clouds arrive in the late afternoon and
evening.

Saturday Night - Tuesday...

A potentially showery period continues through the weekend and into
early next week as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over
the region, nearly parallel to the NW flow aloft. With the frontal
boundary serving as a mechanism for moisture convergence, expect
that isolated to scattered showers and storms will then be possible
mainly each afternoon and evening through Monday. A brief lull will
be possible on Monday night as a progressive upper ridge moves
through. Chances for showers or storms then return for Tuesday as
upper pattern transitions to a deep SW flow ahead of an approaching
trough. The associated low level response will help to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back north as a warm front, with
scattered showers and storms possible in the isentropic ascent
regime.

Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in the mid and upper 50s,
with lows by Monday night around 60. Highs in the 70s on Sunday will
warm to near 80 on Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be a bit
tricky to nail down given a waffling frontal boundary in the region.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 130 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Steady rain was still moving through BWG/LEX as of 1730Z
occasionally reducing flight conditions to IFR or MVFR.  This line
of showers will exit BWG/LEX within the next few hours.  Behind the
line, a cold front and multiple other boundaries exist which will
provide focus for showers and sct storms this afternoon.  Due to
lower coverage and low confidence in a t-storm hitting a TAF site,
will continue VCSH through this evening.  A wind shift with the
front will occur this afternoon from SW to NW.  Winds could also
become gusty especially behind the front up to 20-25 mph this
afternoon or evening.

Tonight VFR conditions should prevail for a good portion of the
overnight period.  However, low clouds will move back into the
region with perhaps some stray showers as well especially toward
sunrise.  Will include MVFR for tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 041738
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
138 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs, temps, and sky cover a bit for
late this morning and afternoon based on this morning`s trends. The
line of showers over southern Indiana is expected to continue to
push ESE through the area through this afternoon with scattered
convection bubbling up behind it along the actual front.  The
initial line and/or convection behind the initial precip line may
grow upscale a bit this afternoon enough to cause small to
marginally severe hail.  Convection is expected to diminish by this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

...Showers and Storms with Small Hail This Afternoon...

The bulk of the region remains in the subsident wake of a passing
shortwave thru the pre-dawn hours, however the lull in precipitation
will be short-lived. As we move into the daylight hours, focus will
shift to an anomalous vorticity maximum evident on water vapor
imagery dropping out of the upper Midwest. As the exit region of a
100 knot upper jet moves into the lower Ohio Valley just after
daybreak, the associated low level response in the form of a 30 knot
low level jet will create an isentropic lift component over our
region. This will create a widespread shield of light to moderate
rain showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) sliding southeast
through our region from just after day break through midday. The
evidence of what will occur is already ongoing over northern IL/IN.

Just behind the stratiform rain shield, a sharp cold front will
follow with steady NW surface winds (NW gusts up around 20-25 mph).
With steepening mid level lapse rates underneath the approaching
closed upper low, and perhaps some surface heating in the afternoon,
numerous instability driven showers and storms will develop late
morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show freezing levels
in the 6 to 7 K foot range which will easily support small hail in
many showers given modest instability up through 20-25 thousand
feet. Can`t rule out a few larger hail producers if some afternoon
surface heating is realized.

Forecast models are in excellent agreement with today`s evolution
and timing, which puts initial batch of showers along the I-65
corridor around midday, and along the I-75 corridor by early to mid
afternoon. The instability based showers/storms will then follow
from southern IN into central KY through early and mid afternoon.
Precipitaton should then exit our east by early evening. Most spots
should expect around .25" - .33" inches of rain through the day.
Will continue with high pops given confidence in pattern/coverage,
and current radar presentation upstream. Highs today will be in the
low 60s. It`s also worth noting that a cold air funnel can`t be
ruled out in the post frontal regime underneath the upper low this
afternoon/evening.

Tonight - Thursday...

Closed upper low slides right over the region tonight and into the
Carolina Coast by late Thursday. Enough low level moisture should be
around for isolated to widely scattered rain showers mainly across
our east. This will be a cool period with lows tonight in the 40 to
45 degree range, and highs on Thursday in the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Thursday Night - Friday...

Highly amplified upper pattern features expansive closed lows over
the western and eastern coasts, with a blocking upper ridge over the
center part of the CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be in the deep
norhterly flow between eastern closed low and upper ridge to end the
week. With surface high pressure in place and a lack of moisture,
this will be a dry period with lows Thursday night in the mid 40s.
With rising heights/thicknesses on Friday, temps will rise to the
lower 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday...

The upper ridge begins to break down as we head into the weekend in
response to another shortwave diving through Ontario into the Great
Lakes. As this occurs, a frontal boundary will slide toward the Ohio
River by late on Saturday. With surface high pressure still holding
on, this should also be a mostly dry period. However, cannot rule
out a few sprinkles Friday night. By late Saturday afternoon and
evening, scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible along and north of the Ohio River. At this point, it looks
like any precipitation activity should hold off in the Louisville
region until after 8 PM EDT, but do have to introduce a 20% chance
of a shower early evening.

Friday night lows will be milder than previous nights with readings
in the low to mid 50s. Saturday highs should be able to top out in
the low 80s before upper clouds arrive in the late afternoon and
evening.

Saturday Night - Tuesday...

A potentially showery period continues through the weekend and into
early next week as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over
the region, nearly parallel to the NW flow aloft. With the frontal
boundary serving as a mechanism for moisture convergence, expect
that isolated to scattered showers and storms will then be possible
mainly each afternoon and evening through Monday. A brief lull will
be possible on Monday night as a progressive upper ridge moves
through. Chances for showers or storms then return for Tuesday as
upper pattern transitions to a deep SW flow ahead of an approaching
trough. The associated low level response will help to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back north as a warm front, with
scattered showers and storms possible in the isentropic ascent
regime.

Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in the mid and upper 50s,
with lows by Monday night around 60. Highs in the 70s on Sunday will
warm to near 80 on Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be a bit
tricky to nail down given a waffling frontal boundary in the region.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 130 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Steady rain was still moving through BWG/LEX as of 1730Z
occasionally reducing flight conditions to IFR or MVFR.  This line
of showers will exit BWG/LEX within the next few hours.  Behind the
line, a cold front and multiple other boundaries exist which will
provide focus for showers and sct storms this afternoon.  Due to
lower coverage and low confidence in a t-storm hitting a TAF site,
will continue VCSH through this evening.  A wind shift with the
front will occur this afternoon from SW to NW.  Winds could also
become gusty especially behind the front up to 20-25 mph this
afternoon or evening.

Tonight VFR conditions should prevail for a good portion of the
overnight period.  However, low clouds will move back into the
region with perhaps some stray showers as well especially toward
sunrise.  Will include MVFR for tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 041351
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
951 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs, temps, and sky cover a bit for
late this morning and afternoon based on this morning`s trends. The
line of showers over southern Indiana is expected to continue to
push ESE through the area through this afternoon with scattered
convection bubbling up behind it along the actual front.  The
initial line and/or convection behind the initial precip line may
grow upscale a bit this afternoon enough to cause small to
marginally severe hail.  Convection is expected to diminish by this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

...Showers and Storms with Small Hail This Afternoon...

The bulk of the region remains in the subsident wake of a passing
shortwave thru the pre-dawn hours, however the lull in precipitation
will be short-lived. As we move into the daylight hours, focus will
shift to an anomalous vorticity maximum evident on water vapor
imagery dropping out of the upper Midwest. As the exit region of a
100 knot upper jet moves into the lower Ohio Valley just after
daybreak, the associated low level response in the form of a 30 knot
low level jet will create an isentropic lift component over our
region. This will create a widespread shield of light to moderate
rain showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) sliding southeast
through our region from just after day break through midday. The
evidence of what will occur is already ongoing over northern IL/IN.

Just behind the stratiform rain shield, a sharp cold front will
follow with steady NW surface winds (NW gusts up around 20-25 mph).
With steepening mid level lapse rates underneath the approaching
closed upper low, and perhaps some surface heating in the afternoon,
numerous instability driven showers and storms will develop late
morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show freezing levels
in the 6 to 7 K foot range which will easily support small hail in
many showers given modest instability up through 20-25 thousand
feet. Can`t rule out a few larger hail producers if some afternoon
surface heating is realized.

Forecast models are in excellent agreement with today`s evolution
and timing, which puts initial batch of showers along the I-65
corridor around midday, and along the I-75 corridor by early to mid
afternoon. The instability based showers/storms will then follow
from southern IN into central KY through early and mid afternoon.
Precipitaton should then exit our east by early evening. Most spots
should expect around .25" - .33" inches of rain through the day.
Will continue with high pops given confidence in pattern/coverage,
and current radar presentation upstream. Highs today will be in the
low 60s. It`s also worth noting that a cold air funnel can`t be
ruled out in the post frontal regime underneath the upper low this
afternoon/evening.

Tonight - Thursday...

Closed upper low slides right over the region tonight and into the
Carolina Coast by late Thursday. Enough low level moisture should be
around for isolated to widely scattered rain showers mainly across
our east. This will be a cool period with lows tonight in the 40 to
45 degree range, and highs on Thursday in the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Thursday Night - Friday...

Highly amplified upper pattern features expansive closed lows over
the western and eastern coasts, with a blocking upper ridge over the
center part of the CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be in the deep
norhterly flow between eastern closed low and upper ridge to end the
week. With surface high pressure in place and a lack of moisture,
this will be a dry period with lows Thursday night in the mid 40s.
With rising heights/thicknesses on Friday, temps will rise to the
lower 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday...

The upper ridge begins to break down as we head into the weekend in
response to another shortwave diving through Ontario into the Great
Lakes. As this occurs, a frontal boundary will slide toward the Ohio
River by late on Saturday. With surface high pressure still holding
on, this should also be a mostly dry period. However, cannot rule
out a few sprinkles Friday night. By late Saturday afternoon and
evening, scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible along and north of the Ohio River. At this point, it looks
like any precipitation activity should hold off in the Louisville
region until after 8 PM EDT, but do have to introduce a 20% chance
of a shower early evening.

Friday night lows will be milder than previous nights with readings
in the low to mid 50s. Saturday highs should be able to top out in
the low 80s before upper clouds arrive in the late afternoon and
evening.

Saturday Night - Tuesday...

A potentially showery period continues through the weekend and into
early next week as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over
the region, nearly parallel to the NW flow aloft. With the frontal
boundary serving as a mechanism for moisture convergence, expect
that isolated to scattered showers and storms will then be possible
mainly each afternoon and evening through Monday. A brief lull will
be possible on Monday night as a progressive upper ridge moves
through. Chances for showers or storms then return for Tuesday as
upper pattern transitions to a deep SW flow ahead of an approaching
trough. The associated low level response will help to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back north as a warm front, with
scattered showers and storms possible in the isentropic ascent
regime.

Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in the mid and upper 50s,
with lows by Monday night around 60. Highs in the 70s on Sunday will
warm to near 80 on Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be a bit
tricky to nail down given a waffling frontal boundary in the region.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Deep upper low over Lake Michigan will dive SE into eastern Kentucky
today, driving a surface cold front through the Commonwealth and all
three terminals by mid to late afternoon. Timing and impacts of
precip will be the main challenge, with the wind shift as a
secondary challenge.

Mid-level ceilings are currently in place, and while we expect lower
clouds to move in later this morning, confidence is limited given
the lack of low clouds upstream. Band of showers pinwheeling into
western/central Indiana and southern Illinois will be losing its
initial punch as it swings into Kentucky, but as the upper low
continues its SE track, cold pool showers will increase behind the
front. Will only carry prevailing rain with the initial push in SDF,
with VCSH at LEX and BWG. Late morning precip will be accompanied by
high-end MVFR conditions and SW wind gusts close to 20 kt.

Winds shift to due west or even WNW by mid-afternoon, with ceilings
continuing to lower, possibly into fuel-alternate. Will go with
prevailing SHRA in BWG and LEX, but just VCSH at SDF.

Precip ends and winds shift to NW after sunset, but gusts should lay
down. Ceilings will lift to VFR during the evening. SDF and BWG
should stay up, but stronger cold advection regime and closer
proximity to the upper low will take LEX back down to fuel-alternate
around midnight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 041054
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
654 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

...Showers and Storms with Small Hail This Afternoon...

The bulk of the region remains in the subsident wake of a passing
shortwave thru the pre-dawn hours, however the lull in precipitation
will be short-lived. As we move into the daylight hours, focus will
shift to an anomalous vorticity maximum evident on water vapor
imagery dropping out of the upper Midwest. As the exit region of a
100 knot upper jet moves into the lower Ohio Valley just after
daybreak, the associated low level response in the form of a 30 knot
low level jet will create an isentropic lift component over our
region. This will create a widespread shield of light to moderate
rain showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) sliding southeast
through our region from just after day break through midday. The
evidence of what will occur is already ongoing over northern IL/IN.

Just behind the stratiform rain shield, a sharp cold front will
follow with steady NW surface winds (NW gusts up around 20-25 mph).
With steepening mid level lapse rates underneath the approaching
closed upper low, and perhaps some surface heating in the afternoon,
numerous instability driven showers and storms will develop late
morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show freezing levels
in the 6 to 7 K foot range which will easily support small hail in
many showers given modest instability up through 20-25 thousand
feet. Can`t rule out a few larger hail producers if some afternoon
surface heating is realized.

Forecast models are in excellent agreement with today`s evolution
and timing, which puts initial batch of showers along the I-65
corridor around midday, and along the I-75 corridor by early to mid
afternoon. The instability based showers/storms will then follow
from southern IN into central KY through early and mid afternoon.
Precipitaton should then exit our east by early evening. Most spots
should expect around .25" - .33" inches of rain through the day.
Will continue with high pops given confidence in pattern/coverage,
and current radar presentation upstream. Highs today will be in the
low 60s. It`s also worth noting that a cold air funnel can`t be
ruled out in the post frontal regime underneath the upper low this
afternoon/evening.

Tonight - Thursday...

Closed upper low slides right over the region tonight and into the
Carolina Coast by late Thursday. Enough low level moisture should be
around for isolated to widely scattered rain showers mainly across
our east. This will be a cool period with lows tonight in the 40 to
45 degree range, and highs on Thursday in the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Thursday Night - Friday...

Highly amplified upper pattern features expansive closed lows over
the western and eastern coasts, with a blocking upper ridge over the
center part of the CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be in the deep
norhterly flow between eastern closed low and upper ridge to end the
week. With surface high pressure in place and a lack of moisture,
this will be a dry period with lows Thursday night in the mid 40s.
With rising heights/thicknesses on Friday, temps will rise to the
lower 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday...

The upper ridge begins to break down as we head into the weekend in
response to another shortwave diving through Ontario into the Great
Lakes. As this occurs, a frontal boundary will slide toward the Ohio
River by late on Saturday. With surface high pressure still holding
on, this should also be a mostly dry period. However, cannot rule
out a few sprinkles Friday night. By late Saturday afternoon and
evening, scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible along and north of the Ohio River. At this point, it looks
like any precipitation activity should hold off in the Louisville
region until after 8 PM EDT, but do have to introduce a 20% chance
of a shower early evening.

Friday night lows will be milder than previous nights with readings
in the low to mid 50s. Saturday highs should be able to top out in
the low 80s before upper clouds arrive in the late afternoon and
evening.

Saturday Night - Tuesday...

A potentially showery period continues through the weekend and into
early next week as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over
the region, nearly parallel to the NW flow aloft. With the frontal
boundary serving as a mechanism for moisture convergence, expect
that isolated to scattered showers and storms will then be possible
mainly each afternoon and evening through Monday. A brief lull will
be possible on Monday night as a progressive upper ridge moves
through. Chances for showers or storms then return for Tuesday as
upper pattern transitions to a deep SW flow ahead of an approaching
trough. The associated low level response will help to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back north as a warm front, with
scattered showers and storms possible in the isentropic ascent
regime.

Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in the mid and upper 50s,
with lows by Monday night around 60. Highs in the 70s on Sunday will
warm to near 80 on Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be a bit
tricky to nail down given a waffling frontal boundary in the region.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Deep upper low over Lake Michigan will dive SE into eastern Kentucky
today, driving a surface cold front through the Commonwealth and all
three terminals by mid to late afternoon. Timing and impacts of
precip will be the main challenge, with the wind shift as a
secondary challenge.

Mid-level ceilings are currently in place, and while we expect lower
clouds to move in later this morning, confidence is limited given
the lack of low clouds upstream. Band of showers pinwheeling into
western/central Indiana and southern Illinois will be losing its
initial punch as it swings into Kentucky, but as the upper low
continues its SE track, cold pool showers will increase behind the
front. Will only carry prevailing rain with the initial push in SDF,
with VCSH at LEX and BWG. Late morning precip will be accompanied by
high-end MVFR conditions and SW wind gusts close to 20 kt.

Winds shift to due west or even WNW by mid-afternoon, with ceilings
continuing to lower, possibly into fuel-alternate. Will go with
prevailing SHRA in BWG and LEX, but just VCSH at SDF.

Precip ends and winds shift to NW after sunset, but gusts should lay
down. Ceilings will lift to VFR during the evening. SDF and BWG
should stay up, but stronger cold advection regime and closer
proximity to the upper low will take LEX back down to fuel-alternate
around midnight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 040723
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
323 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

...Showers and Storms with Small Hail This Afternoon...

The bulk of the region remains in the subsident wake of a passing
shortwave thru the pre-dawn hours, however the lull in precipitation
will be short-lived. As we move into the daylight hours, focus will
shift to an anomalous vorticity maximum evident on water vapor
imagery dropping out of the upper Midwest. As the exit region of a
100 knot upper jet moves into the lower Ohio Valley just after
daybreak, the associated low level response in the form of a 30 knot
low level jet will create an isentropic lift component over our
region. This will create a widespread shield of light to moderate
rain showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) sliding southeast
through our region from just after day break through midday. The
evidence of what will occur is already ongoing over northern IL/IN.

Just behind the stratiform rain shield, a sharp cold front will
follow with steady NW surface winds (NW gusts up around 20-25 mph).
With steepening mid level lapse rates underneath the approaching
closed upper low, and perhaps some surface heating in the afternoon,
numerous instability driven showers and storms will develop late
morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show freezing levels
in the 6 to 7 K foot range which will easily support small hail in
many showers given modest instability up through 20-25 thousand
feet. Can`t rule out a few larger hail producers if some afternoon
surface heating is realized.

Forecast models are in excellent agreement with today`s evolution
and timing, which puts initial batch of showers along the I-65
corridor around midday, and along the I-75 corridor by early to mid
afternoon. The instability based showers/storms will then follow
from southern IN into central KY through early and mid afternoon.
Precipitaton should then exit our east by early evening. Most spots
should expect around .25" - .33" inches of rain through the day.
Will continue with high pops given confidence in pattern/coverage,
and current radar presentation upstream. Highs today will be in the
low 60s. It`s also worth noting that a cold air funnel can`t be
ruled out in the post frontal regime underneath the upper low this
afternoon/evening.

Tonight - Thursday...

Closed upper low slides right over the region tonight and into the
Carolina Coast by late Thursday. Enough low level moisture should be
around for isolated to widely scattered rain showers mainly across
our east. This will be a cool period with lows tonight in the 40 to
45 degree range, and highs on Thursday in the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Thursday Night - Friday...

Highly amplified upper pattern features expansive closed lows over
the western and eastern coasts, with a blocking upper ridge over the
center part of the CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be in the deep
norhterly flow between eastern closed low and upper ridge to end the
week. With surface high pressure in place and a lack of moisture,
this will be a dry period with lows Thursday night in the mid 40s.
With rising heights/thicknesses on Friday, temps will rise to the
lower 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday...

The upper ridge begins to break down as we head into the weekend in
response to another shortwave diving through Ontario into the Great
Lakes. As this occurs, a frontal boundary will slide toward the Ohio
River by late on Saturday. With surface high pressure still holding
on, this should also be a mostly dry period. However, cannot rule
out a few sprinkles Friday night. By late Saturday afternoon and
evening, scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible along and north of the Ohio River. At this point, it looks
like any precipitation activity should hold off in the Louisville
region until after 8 PM EDT, but do have to introduce a 20% chance
of a shower early evening.

Friday night lows will be milder than previous nights with readings
in the low to mid 50s. Saturday highs should be able to top out in
the low 80s before upper clouds arrive in the late afternoon and
evening.

Saturday Night - Tuesday...

A potentially showery period continues through the weekend and into
early next week as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over
the region, nearly parallel to the NW flow aloft. With the frontal
boundary serving as a mechanism for moisture convergence, expect
that isolated to scattered showers and storms will then be possible
mainly each afternoon and evening through Monday. A brief lull will
be possible on Monday night as a progressive upper ridge moves
through. Chances for showers or storms then return for Tuesday as
upper pattern transitions to a deep SW flow ahead of an approaching
trough. The associated low level response will help to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back north as a warm front, with
scattered showers and storms possible in the isentropic ascent
regime.

Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in the mid and upper 50s,
with lows by Monday night around 60. Highs in the 70s on Sunday will
warm to near 80 on Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be a bit
tricky to nail down given a waffling frontal boundary in the region.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

VFR through the night with intermittent mid-level ceilings in the
modest warm advection pattern. Front is on schedule diving into
northern Illinois, with a narrow rain shield just ahead of the
boundary.

Expect the rain shield to dive southeast into Kentucky by late
morning, but should be losing coverage as it is left behind by the
stronger upper forcing. Therefore will only carry prevailing SHRA in
SDF, with just VCSH in BWG and LEX. Ceilings will drop into high-end
MVFR, but we can`t rule out briefly going into fuel-alternate
conditions early/mid afternoon. Will reassess in the 12Z TAFs.

SW winds will pick up with the precip, with gusts just shy of 20 kt,
then shift to due west or WNW mid-afternoon. Will continue VCSH
behind the front as cold air aloft will support showery convection.
Can`t rule out isolated thunder or even small hail, but probability
too low to include in TAFs. Ceilings will lift and NW winds will lay
down around sunset.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 040512
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
112 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Still have some very weak radar returns in the northeast and have
trended the forecast to deal with those.  The chance of measurable
rainfall is very slight. Hi-res guidance continues to point to a
solid line of rain moving into the region Wednesday after the
morning rush. Ongoing forecast there looks good.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

Late this afternoon, light rain showers were skirting across our
southeast Indiana/northern Bluegrass counties.  Could still see a
bit more development southward into more of southern Indiana and
northern KY through the evening hours, but shouldn`t be more than a
light sprinkle or shower at best.  Will continue 20-30% POPs for
this evening.

Showers should end toward late evening with mostly dry conditions
overnight.  Skies should become partly cloudy tonight behind this
wave.  Low temps look to bottom out in the upper 40s.

Look for a cold front and upper low to dive into our region for
tomorrow.  Showers and storms are expected to develop along the
front during the morning hours and move into our southern Indiana
counties around mid to late morning.  Convection is expected to
spread ESE through the rest of the forecast area during the day and
then diminish to isld-sct activity by tomorrow evening.  This is a
potent upper low with good forcing for ascent.  As the colder air
associated with it moves into our region and sfc heating takes
place, lapse rates will steepen sharply.  With modest 0-6 km bulk
shear of 25-35 kts and CAPE of 500-1000 j/kg, small to marginally
severe hail will be possible in low topped convection. The best time
for storms with hail would be during the late morning to early
evening hours.  Highs for tomorrow look to reach the upper 50s to
mid 60s with south central KY being the warmest under a longer
period of only partly cloudy skies in the morning/early afternoon.

Wed night/Thu we`ll see lingering shower activity on the NW side of
the upper low mainly focused east of I-65 on Thurs.  Temps will stay
on the cool side with Wed night/Thu night lows in the low to mid 40s
and Thu highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Thursday Night - Friday...

Highly amplified upper pattern features expansive closed lows over
the western and eastern coasts, with a blocking upper ridge over the
center part of the CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be in the deep
norhterly flow between eastern closed low and upper ridge to end the
week. With surface high pressure in place and a lack of moisture,
this will be a dry period with lows Thursday night in the mid 40s.
With rising heights/thicknesses on Friday, temps will rise to the
lower 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday...

The upper ridge begins to break down as we head into the weekend in
response to another shortwave diving through Ontario into the Great
Lakes. As this occurs, a frontal boundary will slide toward the Ohio
River by late on Saturday. With surface high pressure still holding
on, this should also be a mostly dry period. However, cannot rule
out a stray light rain shower Friday night. By late Saturday
afternoon and evening, scattered showers and an isolated
thunderstorm will be possible north of the Ohio River. At this
point, it looks like any precipitation activity should hold off in
the Louisville region until after 8 PM EDT.

Friday night lows will be milder than previous nights with readings
in the low to mid 50s. Saturday highs should be able to top out in
the low 80s before upper clouds arrive in the late afternoon and
evening.

Saturday Night - Tuesday...

A potentially showery period continues through the weekend and into
early next week as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over
the region, nearly parallel to the NW flow aloft. With the frontal
boundary serving as a mechanism for moisture convergence, expect
that isolated to scattered showers and storms will then be possible
mainly each afternoon and evening through Monday. A brief lull will
be possible on Monday night as a progressive upper ridge moves
through. Chances for showers or storms then return for Tuesday as
upper pattern transitions to a deep SW flow ahead of an approaching
trough. The associated low level response will help to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back north as a warm front, with
scattered showers and storms possible in the isentropic ascent
regime.

Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in the mid and upper 50s,
with lows by Monday night around 60. Highs in the mid and upper 70s
on Sunday will warm to near 80 on Monday and Tuesday. These readings
will be a bit tricky to nail down given a waffling frontal boundary
in the region.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

VFR through the night with intermittent mid-level ceilings in the
modest warm advection pattern. Front is on schedule diving into
northern Illinois, with a narrow rain shield just ahead of the
boundary.

Expect the rain shield to dive southeast into Kentucky by late
morning, but should be losing coverage as it is left behind by the
stronger upper forcing. Therefore will only carry prevailing SHRA in
SDF, with just VCSH in BWG and LEX. Ceilings will drop into high-end
MVFR, but we can`t rule out briefly going into fuel-alternate
conditions early/mid afternoon. Will reassess in the 12Z TAFs.

SW winds will pick up with the precip, with gusts just shy of 20 kt,
then shift to due west or WNW mid-afternoon. Will continue VCSH
behind the front as cold air aloft will support showery convection.
Can`t rule out isolated thunder or even small hail, but probability
too low to include in TAFs. Ceilings will lift and NW winds will lay
down around sunset.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 032330
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
730 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Still have some very weak radar returns in the northeast and have
trended the forecast to deal with those.  The chance of measurable
rainfall is very slight. Hi-res guidance continues to point to a
solid line of rain moving into the region Wednesday after the
morning rush. Ongoing forecast there looks good.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

Late this afternoon, light rain showers were skirting across our
southeast Indiana/northern Bluegrass counties.  Could still see a
bit more development southward into more of southern Indiana and
northern KY through the evening hours, but shouldn`t be more than a
light sprinkle or shower at best.  Will continue 20-30% POPs for
this evening.

Showers should end toward late evening with mostly dry conditions
overnight.  Skies should become partly cloudy tonight behind this
wave.  Low temps look to bottom out in the upper 40s.

Look for a cold front and upper low to dive into our region for
tomorrow.  Showers and storms are expected to develop along the
front during the morning hours and move into our southern Indiana
counties around mid to late morning.  Convection is expected to
spread ESE through the rest of the forecast area during the day and
then diminish to isld-sct activity by tomorrow evening.  This is a
potent upper low with good forcing for ascent.  As the colder air
associated with it moves into our region and sfc heating takes
place, lapse rates will steepen sharply.  With modest 0-6 km bulk
shear of 25-35 kts and CAPE of 500-1000 j/kg, small to marginally
severe hail will be possible in low topped convection. The best time
for storms with hail would be during the late morning to early
evening hours.  Highs for tomorrow look to reach the upper 50s to
mid 60s with south central KY being the warmest under a longer
period of only partly cloudy skies in the morning/early afternoon.

Wed night/Thu we`ll see lingering shower activity on the NW side of
the upper low mainly focused east of I-65 on Thurs.  Temps will stay
on the cool side with Wed night/Thu night lows in the low to mid 40s
and Thu highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Friday...

Friday looks to be mostly sunny and warmer as the upper low moves
out of our region and up the east coast and upper level ridging
begins to move in from the west.  Highs on Fri look to reach the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday...

Saturday`s forecast is looking a bit more complicated in recent
model runs.  First of all, longer range models are hinting at a weak
wave bringing a brief burst of showery activity Sat morning to the
region.  Both the last few runs of the GFS/ECMWF show this, however,
it is very weak wave and will hold off for now on adding any very
light POPs for Sat morning at this time.

We should then see a dry period for much of the afternoon/early
evening hours with partly cloudy skies.   Temps on Sat
afternoon/early evening should warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s.

Then late Sat evening (after 8pm) a cold front will dive south from
a low pressure system traversing southern Canada bringing scattered
showers/storms into the region for Sat night.  Severe wx is not
expected for Sat night at this time.  Low temps on Sat night should
hold in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday - Tuesday...

An active weather pattern looks on track to start next week. Several
small waves will keep low chances for showers/storms Sun/Mon.  A
better chance for more widespread convection will arrive for Tues as
a low pressure system and cold front approach the Midwest.  Temps
will remain at or slightly above seasonal norms early next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 725 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Expecting a VFR night with variable winds. Wednesday morning winds
will pick up from the southwest and become gusty ahead of a cold
front. Model guidance is in pretty good agreement on the timing of
rains associated with this front, starting at 14/15/16Z for
SDF/BWG/LEX respectively. Line of rain should pass through and then
become more showery late in the day. With cold air aloft, cannot
rule out small hail and/or occasional thunder in the afternoon, but
too low coverage to put in these TAFs. Winds will shift to
northwesterly behind the front Wed afternoon, with MVFR cigs likely
for a period from onset of rain until a few hours behind the front.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 031935
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

Late this afternoon, light rain showers were skirting across our
southeast Indiana/northern Bluegrass counties.  Could still see a
bit more development southward into more of southern Indiana and
northern KY through the evening hours, but shouldn`t be more than a
light sprinkle or shower at best.  Will continue 20-30% POPs for
this evening.

Showers should end toward late evening with mostly dry conditions
overnight.  Skies should become partly cloudy tonight behind this
wave.  Low temps look to bottom out in the upper 40s.

Look for a cold front and upper low to dive into our region for
tomorrow.  Showers and storms are expected to develop along the
front during the morning hours and move into our southern Indiana
counties around mid to late morning.  Convection is expected to
spread ESE through the rest of the forecast area during the day and
then diminish to isld-sct activity by tomorrow evening.  This is a
potent upper low with good forcing for ascent.  As the colder air
associated with it moves into our region and sfc heating takes
place, lapse rates will steepen sharply.  With modest 0-6 km bulk
shear of 25-35 kts and CAPE of 500-1000 j/kg, small to marginally
severe hail will be possible in low topped convection. The best time
for storms with hail would be during the late morning to early
evening hours.  Highs for tomorrow look to reach the upper 50s to
mid 60s with south central KY being the warmest under a longer
period of only partly cloudy skies in the morning/early afternoon.

Wed night/Thu we`ll see lingering shower activity on the NW side of
the upper low mainly focused east of I-65 on Thurs.  Temps will stay
on the cool side with Wed night/Thu night lows in the low to mid 40s
and Thu highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Friday...

Friday looks to be mostly sunny and warmer as the upper low moves
out of our region and up the east coast and upper level ridging
begins to move in from the west.  Highs on Fri look to reach the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday...

Saturday`s forecast is looking a bit more complicated in recent
model runs.  First of all, longer range models are hinting at a weak
wave bringing a brief burst of showery activity Sat morning to the
region.  Both the last few runs of the GFS/ECMWF show this, however,
it is very weak wave and will hold off for now on adding any very
light POPs for Sat morning at this time.

We should then see a dry period for much of the afternoon/early
evening hours with partly cloudy skies.   Temps on Sat
afternoon/early evening should warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s.

Then late Sat evening (after 8pm) a cold front will dive south from
a low pressure system traversing southern Canada bringing scattered
showers/storms into the region for Sat night.  Severe wx is not
expected for Sat night at this time.  Low temps on Sat night should
hold in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday - Tuesday...

An active weather pattern looks on track to start next week. Several
small waves will keep low chances for showers/storms Sun/Mon.  A
better chance for more widespread convection will arrive for Tues as
a low pressure system and cold front approach the Midwest.  Temps
will remain at or slightly above seasonal norms early next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 127 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Latest satellite imagery shows a broken deck of strato-cu pivoting
southeast through all sites.  Enough mixing has occurred early this
afternoon which has brought cigs into mainly VFR ranges, but some
brief forays into MVFR may still be possible early this afternoon.
Showers have been slow to pivot into SDF/LEX, but still think enough
will develop late this afternoon to warrant VCSH mention.  Any
impacts from the precipitation will be minimal.

Clouds should decrease in coverage tonight with the loss of heating,
but will still see a SCT/BKN VFR cloud deck sliding through.  An
additional line of showers and associated MVFR cigs will push into
all sites late in the period and into the SDF planning period. Winds
will be out of the WNW through tonight, shifting to the WSW early
Wednesday morning ahead of the next incoming system.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 031729
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
129 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Light showery activity to our north late this morning should
gradually drift south into our region with new convective develop
expected in afternoon cu as well.  Thus, will continue isld-sct
showers for today mainly over southern IN and north central KY. Made
some slight tweaks to temps, but overall they remain the same with
highs in the low to mid 60s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

An upper trough with several vort maxes rotating through will
dominate the short term forecast period. This will result in a
showery and cooler than normal period of weather.

Current water vapor imagery shows the next feature dropping into the
upper Wabash River Valley at this hour, with some very light showers
slowly dropping through central IN. Previous forecast and current hi
res models agree that isolated to widely scattered showers will drop
into southern IN around daybreak and slowly pivot through our region
mainly along and north of I-64 through the day, then into central KY
by late afternoon. Moisture is not very deep, so will go with low
chances for measurable rain. Under mostly cloudy skies and steady NW
surface wind, temperatures will struggle. Expect highs only in the
low to mid 60s in many spots.

Isolated light rain showers will linger in the Blue Grass region
through the evening hours, with a lull in precipitation elsewhere.
Will forecast a dry period in the pre-dawn hours, however this will
be short-lived ahead of a potent Vort diving into the region for
Wednesday. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s.

Anomalous upper low dives toward our region through Wednesday, and
will be the focus for numerous rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given mid level lapse rates and very
low freezing levels (6-7 K feet), some hail is possible in
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. If a few breaks in the clouds are
realized during the afternoon, then potential for a few marginally
severe hailers isn`t out of the question. In addition, any surface
heating will result in better potential to mix into stronger winds
aloft in the afternoon. Will forecast gusts up to around 25 mph for
now, but deeper mixing could warrant gusts over 30 mph. Again, the
limiting factor at this time appears to be cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Wednesday Night - Thursday...

Anomalous closed upper low will be sliding through the region
Wednesday night and Thursday, with enough lingering moisture to
squeeze out isolated to widely scattered showers in our east. As one
would expect with anomalous upper low, temperatures will be well
below normal under heavy cloud cover and steady cold advection. Lows
Wednesday night should drop into the 40 to 45 range, with highs on
Thursday mostly in the mid and upper 50s. Spots near Bowling Green
should sneak into the low 60s.

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

The overall upper pattern slowly slides east to end the week, with
closed upper low spinning over the mid Atlantic Coast and upper
ridge axis sliding to the central CONUS. This will put the Ohio
Valley under enough influence of high pressure to return dry
conditions and begin to warm up a bit. Thursday night lows will
still be chilly in the low to mid 40s. Friday highs will mostly be
in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies and increasing
heights/thicknesses. Friday night lows will be slightly milder
in the low 50s.

Saturday...

Upper ridge axis breaks down on Saturday in response to a shortwave
moving into the Great Lakes region. The trend with this features is
stronger/faster to the point where it could have a minimal impact on
the Saturday evening forecast along and north of the Ohio River.
Data suggest that enough moisture could pool ahead of a surface
frontal boundary sagging into our area to produce isolated to widely
scatterd showers or a storm. This tends to be overdone by models a
lot of the time, especially when moving into an antecedent dry
airmass. That being said, the faster trend is worth noting/watching.
Overall, the Saturday forecast will be dry with highs around 80.
We`ll be watching for a few showers across southern IN by late
afternoon and early evening.

Saturday Night - Monday...

The Ohio Valley will be situated under persistent NW flow aloft
between central CONUS ridge axis and New England troughing to end
the weekend. The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall over or
near our area nearly parallel to the upper flow. With this feature
in the area, expect that isolated to scattered showers and a few
storms will be possible, mainly each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures are always tricky when trying to nail down the exact
position of a frontal boundary, but with most of the region expected
to be on the warm side, upper 70s and low 80s seem reasonable.
Southern IN would have the best shot at mid 70s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 127 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Latest satellite imagery shows a broken deck of strato-cu pivoting
southeast through all sites.  Enough mixing has occurred early this
afternoon which has brought cigs into mainly VFR ranges, but some
brief forays into MVFR may still be possible early this afternoon.
Showers have been slow to pivot into SDF/LEX, but still think enough
will develop late this afternoon to warrant VCSH mention.  Any
impacts from the precipitation will be minimal.

Clouds should decrease in coverage tonight with the loss of heating,
but will still see a SCT/BKN VFR cloud deck sliding through.  An
additional line of showers and associated MVFR cigs will push into
all sites late in the period and into the SDF planning period. Winds
will be out of the WNW through tonight, shifting to the WSW early
Wednesday morning ahead of the next incoming system.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 031729
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
129 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Light showery activity to our north late this morning should
gradually drift south into our region with new convective develop
expected in afternoon cu as well.  Thus, will continue isld-sct
showers for today mainly over southern IN and north central KY. Made
some slight tweaks to temps, but overall they remain the same with
highs in the low to mid 60s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

An upper trough with several vort maxes rotating through will
dominate the short term forecast period. This will result in a
showery and cooler than normal period of weather.

Current water vapor imagery shows the next feature dropping into the
upper Wabash River Valley at this hour, with some very light showers
slowly dropping through central IN. Previous forecast and current hi
res models agree that isolated to widely scattered showers will drop
into southern IN around daybreak and slowly pivot through our region
mainly along and north of I-64 through the day, then into central KY
by late afternoon. Moisture is not very deep, so will go with low
chances for measurable rain. Under mostly cloudy skies and steady NW
surface wind, temperatures will struggle. Expect highs only in the
low to mid 60s in many spots.

Isolated light rain showers will linger in the Blue Grass region
through the evening hours, with a lull in precipitation elsewhere.
Will forecast a dry period in the pre-dawn hours, however this will
be short-lived ahead of a potent Vort diving into the region for
Wednesday. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s.

Anomalous upper low dives toward our region through Wednesday, and
will be the focus for numerous rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given mid level lapse rates and very
low freezing levels (6-7 K feet), some hail is possible in
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. If a few breaks in the clouds are
realized during the afternoon, then potential for a few marginally
severe hailers isn`t out of the question. In addition, any surface
heating will result in better potential to mix into stronger winds
aloft in the afternoon. Will forecast gusts up to around 25 mph for
now, but deeper mixing could warrant gusts over 30 mph. Again, the
limiting factor at this time appears to be cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Wednesday Night - Thursday...

Anomalous closed upper low will be sliding through the region
Wednesday night and Thursday, with enough lingering moisture to
squeeze out isolated to widely scattered showers in our east. As one
would expect with anomalous upper low, temperatures will be well
below normal under heavy cloud cover and steady cold advection. Lows
Wednesday night should drop into the 40 to 45 range, with highs on
Thursday mostly in the mid and upper 50s. Spots near Bowling Green
should sneak into the low 60s.

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

The overall upper pattern slowly slides east to end the week, with
closed upper low spinning over the mid Atlantic Coast and upper
ridge axis sliding to the central CONUS. This will put the Ohio
Valley under enough influence of high pressure to return dry
conditions and begin to warm up a bit. Thursday night lows will
still be chilly in the low to mid 40s. Friday highs will mostly be
in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies and increasing
heights/thicknesses. Friday night lows will be slightly milder
in the low 50s.

Saturday...

Upper ridge axis breaks down on Saturday in response to a shortwave
moving into the Great Lakes region. The trend with this features is
stronger/faster to the point where it could have a minimal impact on
the Saturday evening forecast along and north of the Ohio River.
Data suggest that enough moisture could pool ahead of a surface
frontal boundary sagging into our area to produce isolated to widely
scatterd showers or a storm. This tends to be overdone by models a
lot of the time, especially when moving into an antecedent dry
airmass. That being said, the faster trend is worth noting/watching.
Overall, the Saturday forecast will be dry with highs around 80.
We`ll be watching for a few showers across southern IN by late
afternoon and early evening.

Saturday Night - Monday...

The Ohio Valley will be situated under persistent NW flow aloft
between central CONUS ridge axis and New England troughing to end
the weekend. The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall over or
near our area nearly parallel to the upper flow. With this feature
in the area, expect that isolated to scattered showers and a few
storms will be possible, mainly each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures are always tricky when trying to nail down the exact
position of a frontal boundary, but with most of the region expected
to be on the warm side, upper 70s and low 80s seem reasonable.
Southern IN would have the best shot at mid 70s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 127 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Latest satellite imagery shows a broken deck of strato-cu pivoting
southeast through all sites.  Enough mixing has occurred early this
afternoon which has brought cigs into mainly VFR ranges, but some
brief forays into MVFR may still be possible early this afternoon.
Showers have been slow to pivot into SDF/LEX, but still think enough
will develop late this afternoon to warrant VCSH mention.  Any
impacts from the precipitation will be minimal.

Clouds should decrease in coverage tonight with the loss of heating,
but will still see a SCT/BKN VFR cloud deck sliding through.  An
additional line of showers and associated MVFR cigs will push into
all sites late in the period and into the SDF planning period. Winds
will be out of the WNW through tonight, shifting to the WSW early
Wednesday morning ahead of the next incoming system.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 031455
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1055 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Light showery activity to our north late this morning should
gradually drift south into our region with new convective develop
expected in afternoon cu as well.  Thus, will continue isld-sct
showers for today mainly over southern IN and north central KY. Made
some slight tweaks to temps, but overall they remain the same with
highs in the low to mid 60s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

An upper trough with several vort maxes rotating through will
dominate the short term forecast period. This will result in a
showery and cooler than normal period of weather.

Current water vapor imagery shows the next feature dropping into the
upper Wabash River Valley at this hour, with some very light showers
slowly dropping through central IN. Previous forecast and current hi
res models agree that isolated to widely scattered showers will drop
into southern IN around daybreak and slowly pivot through our region
mainly along and north of I-64 through the day, then into central KY
by late afternoon. Moisture is not very deep, so will go with low
chances for measurable rain. Under mostly cloudy skies and steady NW
surface wind, temperatures will struggle. Expect highs only in the
low to mid 60s in many spots.

Isolated light rain showers will linger in the Blue Grass region
through the evening hours, with a lull in precipitation elsewhere.
Will forecast a dry period in the pre-dawn hours, however this will
be short-lived ahead of a potent Vort diving into the region for
Wednesday. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s.

Anomalous upper low dives toward our region through Wednesday, and
will be the focus for numerous rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given mid level lapse rates and very
low freezing levels (6-7 K feet), some hail is possible in
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. If a few breaks in the clouds are
realized during the afternoon, then potential for a few marginally
severe hailers isn`t out of the question. In addition, any surface
heating will result in better potential to mix into stronger winds
aloft in the afternoon. Will forecast gusts up to around 25 mph for
now, but deeper mixing could warrant gusts over 30 mph. Again, the
limiting factor at this time appears to be cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Wednesday Night - Thursday...

Anomalous closed upper low will be sliding through the region
Wednesday night and Thursday, with enough lingering moisture to
squeeze out isolated to widely scattered showers in our east. As one
would expect with anomalous upper low, temperatures will be well
below normal under heavy cloud cover and steady cold advection. Lows
Wednesday night should drop into the 40 to 45 range, with highs on
Thursday mostly in the mid and upper 50s. Spots near Bowling Green
should sneak into the low 60s.

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

The overall upper pattern slowly slides east to end the week, with
closed upper low spinning over the mid Atlantic Coast and upper
ridge axis sliding to the central CONUS. This will put the Ohio
Valley under enough influence of high pressure to return dry
conditions and begin to warm up a bit. Thursday night lows will
still be chilly in the low to mid 40s. Friday highs will mostly be
in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies and increasing
heights/thicknesses. Friday night lows will be slightly milder
in the low 50s.

Saturday...

Upper ridge axis breaks down on Saturday in response to a shortwave
moving into the Great Lakes region. The trend with this features is
stronger/faster to the point where it could have a minimal impact on
the Saturday evening forecast along and north of the Ohio River.
Data suggest that enough moisture could pool ahead of a surface
frontal boundary sagging into our area to produce isolated to widely
scatterd showers or a storm. This tends to be overdone by models a
lot of the time, especially when moving into an antecedent dry
airmass. That being said, the faster trend is worth noting/watching.
Overall, the Saturday forecast will be dry with highs around 80.
We`ll be watching for a few showers across southern IN by late
afternoon and early evening.

Saturday Night - Monday...

The Ohio Valley will be situated under persistent NW flow aloft
between central CONUS ridge axis and New England troughing to end
the weekend. The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall over or
near our area nearly parallel to the upper flow. With this feature
in the area, expect that isolated to scattered showers and a few
storms will be possible, mainly each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures are always tricky when trying to nail down the exact
position of a frontal boundary, but with most of the region expected
to be on the warm side, upper 70s and low 80s seem reasonable.
Southern IN would have the best shot at mid 70s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Latest IR imagery and GOES-R MVFR/IFR probabilities show an area of
IFR stratus across southwest to central Indiana slowly dropping
south into north central Kentucky. This will most likely impact SDF
and LEX through the morning hours with low ceilings. There are some
visibility restrictions but feel the main aviation challenge is
ceilings. Expect this deck to continue for a few hours but slowly
lifting as the initial upper level system passes the area.

Plan on light west/northwest winds today and mostly VFR conditions
this afternoon and evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers are
possible but will continue to leave out of TAF.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 031032
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
632 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

An upper trough with several vort maxes rotating through will
dominate the short term forecast period. This will result in a
showery and cooler than normal period of weather.

Current water vapor imagery shows the next feature dropping into the
upper Wabash River Valley at this hour, with some very light showers
slowly dropping through central IN. Previous forecast and current hi
res models agree that isolated to widely scattered showers will drop
into southern IN around daybreak and slowly pivot through our region
mainly along and north of I-64 through the day, then into central KY
by late afternoon. Moisture is not very deep, so will go with low
chances for measurable rain. Under mostly cloudy skies and steady NW
surface wind, temperatures will struggle. Expect highs only in the
low to mid 60s in many spots.

Isolated light rain showers will linger in the Blue Grass region
through the evening hours, with a lull in precipitation elsewhere.
Will forecast a dry period in the pre-dawn hours, however this will
be short-lived ahead of a potent Vort diving into the region for
Wednesday. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s.

Anomalous upper low dives toward our region through Wednesday, and
will be the focus for numerous rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given mid level lapse rates and very
low freezing levels (6-7 K feet), some hail is possible in
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. If a few breaks in the clouds are
realized during the afternoon, then potential for a few marginally
severe hailers isn`t out of the question. In addition, any surface
heating will result in better potential to mix into stronger winds
aloft in the afternoon. Will forecast gusts up to around 25 mph for
now, but deeper mixing could warrant gusts over 30 mph. Again, the
limiting factor at this time appears to be cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Wednesday Night - Thursday...

Anomalous closed upper low will be sliding through the region
Wednesday night and Thursday, with enough lingering moisture to
squeeze out isolated to widely scattered showers in our east. As one
would expect with anomalous upper low, temperatures will be well
below normal under heavy cloud cover and steady cold advection. Lows
Wednesday night should drop into the 40 to 45 range, with highs on
Thursday mostly in the mid and upper 50s. Spots near Bowling Green
should sneak into the low 60s.

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

The overall upper pattern slowly slides east to end the week, with
closed upper low spinning over the mid Atlantic Coast and upper
ridge axis sliding to the central CONUS. This will put the Ohio
Valley under enough influence of high pressure to return dry
conditions and begin to warm up a bit. Thursday night lows will
still be chilly in the low to mid 40s. Friday highs will mostly be
in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies and increasing
heights/thicknesses. Friday night lows will be slightly milder
in the low 50s.

Saturday...

Upper ridge axis breaks down on Saturday in response to a shortwave
moving into the Great Lakes region. The trend with this features is
stronger/faster to the point where it could have a minimal impact on
the Saturday evening forecast along and north of the Ohio River.
Data suggest that enough moisture could pool ahead of a surface
frontal boundary sagging into our area to produce isolated to widely
scatterd showers or a storm. This tends to be overdone by models a
lot of the time, especially when moving into an antecedent dry
airmass. That being said, the faster trend is worth noting/watching.
Overall, the Saturday forecast will be dry with highs around 80.
We`ll be watching for a few showers across southern IN by late
afternoon and early evening.

Saturday Night - Monday...

The Ohio Valley will be situated under persistent NW flow aloft
between central CONUS ridge axis and New England troughing to end
the weekend. The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall over or
near our area nearly parallel to the upper flow. With this feature
in the area, expect that isolated to scattered showers and a few
storms will be possible, mainly each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures are always tricky when trying to nail down the exact
position of a frontal boundary, but with most of the region expected
to be on the warm side, upper 70s and low 80s seem reasonable.
Southern IN would have the best shot at mid 70s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Latest IR imagery and GOES-R MVFR/IFR probabilities show an area of
IFR stratus across southwest to central Indiana slowly dropping
south into north central Kentucky. This will most likely impact SDF
and LEX through the morning hours with low ceilings. There are some
visibility restrictions but feel the main aviation challenge is
ceilings. Expect this deck to continue for a few hours but slowly
lifting as the initial upper level system passes the area.

Plan on light west/northwest winds today and mostly VFR conditions
this afternoon and evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers are
possible but will continue to leave out of TAF.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 030739
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
339 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

An upper trough with several vort maxes rotating through will
dominate the short term forecast period. This will result in a
showery and cooler than normal period of weather.

Current water vapor imagery shows the next feature dropping into the
upper Wabash River Valley at this hour, with some very light showers
slowly dropping through central IN. Previous forecast and current hi
res models agree that isolated to widely scattered showers will drop
into southern IN around daybreak and slowly pivot through our region
mainly along and north of I-64 through the day, then into central KY
by late afternoon. Moisture is not very deep, so will go with low
chances for measurable rain. Under mostly cloudy skies and steady NW
surface wind, temperatures will struggle. Expect highs only in the
low to mid 60s in many spots.

Isolated light rain showers will linger in the Blue Grass region
through the evening hours, with a lull in precipitation elsewhere.
Will forecast a dry period in the pre-dawn hours, however this will
be short-lived ahead of a potent Vort diving into the region for
Wednesday. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s.

Anomalous upper low dives toward our region through Wednesday, and
will be the focus for numerous rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given mid level lapse rates and very
low freezing levels (6-7 K feet), some hail is possible in
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. If a few breaks in the clouds are
realized during the afternoon, then potential for a few marginally
severe hailers isn`t out of the question. In addition, any surface
heating will result in better potential to mix into stronger winds
aloft in the afternoon. Will forecast gusts up to around 25 mph for
now, but deeper mixing could warrant gusts over 30 mph. Again, the
limiting factor at this time appears to be cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Wednesday Night - Thursday...

Anomalous closed upper low will be sliding through the region
Wednesday night and Thursday, with enough lingering moisture to
squeeze out isolated to widely scattered showers in our east. As one
would expect with anomalous upper low, temperatures will be well
below normal under heavy cloud cover and steady cold advection. Lows
Wednesday night should drop into the 40 to 45 range, with highs on
Thursday mostly in the mid and upper 50s. Spots near Bowling Green
should sneak into the low 60s.

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

The overall upper pattern slowly slides east to end the week, with
closed upper low spinning over the mid Atlantic Coast and upper
ridge axis sliding to the central CONUS. This will put the Ohio
Valley under enough influence of high pressure to return dry
conditions and begin to warm up a bit. Thursday night lows will
still be chilly in the low to mid 40s. Friday highs will mostly be
in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies and increasing
heights/thicknesses. Friday night lows will be slightly milder
in the low 50s.

Saturday...

Upper ridge axis breaks down on Saturday in response to a shortwave
moving into the Great Lakes region. The trend with this features is
stronger/faster to the point where it could have a minimal impact on
the Saturday evening forecast along and north of the Ohio River.
Data suggest that enough moisture could pool ahead of a surface
frontal boundary sagging into our area to produce isolated to widely
scatterd showers or a storm. This tends to be overdone by models a
lot of the time, especially when moving into an antecedent dry
airmass. That being said, the faster trend is worth noting/watching.
Overall, the Saturday forecast will be dry with highs around 80.
We`ll be watching for a few showers across southern IN by late
afternoon and early evening.

Saturday Night - Monday...

The Ohio Valley will be situated under persistent NW flow aloft
between central CONUS ridge axis and New England troughing to end
the weekend. The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall over or
near our area nearly parallel to the upper flow. With this feature
in the area, expect that isolated to scattered showers and a few
storms will be possible, mainly each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures are always tricky when trying to nail down the exact
position of a frontal boundary, but with most of the region expected
to be on the warm side, upper 70s and low 80s seem reasonable.
Southern IN would have the best shot at mid 70s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1259 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Lingering strato-cu with bases 3-5 kft will continue across central
Kentucky and southern Indiana. As a few upper waves pass over and
with nighttime cooling, there are some suggestions this cloud deck
will lower to MVFR, possible below fuel-alternate levels. Earlier
guidance was much more pessimistic but recent trends in the data
show improvement, which matches current observations. As a result,
kept TAFs above IFR for now but still show some lowering to fuel
alternate.

Otherwise, for later today expect light winds 5 to 7 kts with broken
VFR clouds. Light rain showers are possible by afternoon but chances
seem too low to include in TAF right now.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 030739
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
339 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

An upper trough with several vort maxes rotating through will
dominate the short term forecast period. This will result in a
showery and cooler than normal period of weather.

Current water vapor imagery shows the next feature dropping into the
upper Wabash River Valley at this hour, with some very light showers
slowly dropping through central IN. Previous forecast and current hi
res models agree that isolated to widely scattered showers will drop
into southern IN around daybreak and slowly pivot through our region
mainly along and north of I-64 through the day, then into central KY
by late afternoon. Moisture is not very deep, so will go with low
chances for measurable rain. Under mostly cloudy skies and steady NW
surface wind, temperatures will struggle. Expect highs only in the
low to mid 60s in many spots.

Isolated light rain showers will linger in the Blue Grass region
through the evening hours, with a lull in precipitation elsewhere.
Will forecast a dry period in the pre-dawn hours, however this will
be short-lived ahead of a potent Vort diving into the region for
Wednesday. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s.

Anomalous upper low dives toward our region through Wednesday, and
will be the focus for numerous rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given mid level lapse rates and very
low freezing levels (6-7 K feet), some hail is possible in
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. If a few breaks in the clouds are
realized during the afternoon, then potential for a few marginally
severe hailers isn`t out of the question. In addition, any surface
heating will result in better potential to mix into stronger winds
aloft in the afternoon. Will forecast gusts up to around 25 mph for
now, but deeper mixing could warrant gusts over 30 mph. Again, the
limiting factor at this time appears to be cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Wednesday Night - Thursday...

Anomalous closed upper low will be sliding through the region
Wednesday night and Thursday, with enough lingering moisture to
squeeze out isolated to widely scattered showers in our east. As one
would expect with anomalous upper low, temperatures will be well
below normal under heavy cloud cover and steady cold advection. Lows
Wednesday night should drop into the 40 to 45 range, with highs on
Thursday mostly in the mid and upper 50s. Spots near Bowling Green
should sneak into the low 60s.

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

The overall upper pattern slowly slides east to end the week, with
closed upper low spinning over the mid Atlantic Coast and upper
ridge axis sliding to the central CONUS. This will put the Ohio
Valley under enough influence of high pressure to return dry
conditions and begin to warm up a bit. Thursday night lows will
still be chilly in the low to mid 40s. Friday highs will mostly be
in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies and increasing
heights/thicknesses. Friday night lows will be slightly milder
in the low 50s.

Saturday...

Upper ridge axis breaks down on Saturday in response to a shortwave
moving into the Great Lakes region. The trend with this features is
stronger/faster to the point where it could have a minimal impact on
the Saturday evening forecast along and north of the Ohio River.
Data suggest that enough moisture could pool ahead of a surface
frontal boundary sagging into our area to produce isolated to widely
scatterd showers or a storm. This tends to be overdone by models a
lot of the time, especially when moving into an antecedent dry
airmass. That being said, the faster trend is worth noting/watching.
Overall, the Saturday forecast will be dry with highs around 80.
We`ll be watching for a few showers across southern IN by late
afternoon and early evening.

Saturday Night - Monday...

The Ohio Valley will be situated under persistent NW flow aloft
between central CONUS ridge axis and New England troughing to end
the weekend. The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall over or
near our area nearly parallel to the upper flow. With this feature
in the area, expect that isolated to scattered showers and a few
storms will be possible, mainly each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures are always tricky when trying to nail down the exact
position of a frontal boundary, but with most of the region expected
to be on the warm side, upper 70s and low 80s seem reasonable.
Southern IN would have the best shot at mid 70s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1259 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Lingering strato-cu with bases 3-5 kft will continue across central
Kentucky and southern Indiana. As a few upper waves pass over and
with nighttime cooling, there are some suggestions this cloud deck
will lower to MVFR, possible below fuel-alternate levels. Earlier
guidance was much more pessimistic but recent trends in the data
show improvement, which matches current observations. As a result,
kept TAFs above IFR for now but still show some lowering to fuel
alternate.

Otherwise, for later today expect light winds 5 to 7 kts with broken
VFR clouds. Light rain showers are possible by afternoon but chances
seem too low to include in TAF right now.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........ZT





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