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000
FXUS63 KLMK 221044
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
644 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

Updated the forecast to delay POPs until late morning/early
afternoon.  The complex of storms over north central Indiana and
northern Illinois will continue to sag south and east throughout the
day.  It`s difficult to time southward progress due to the ridging
over the area, but will delay convection through most of the morning
hours with this update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Heat and Humidity have Arrived...

Strong ridging has built in over the region keeping convection to
our north and east early this morning.  The only exception will be a
few showers/storms that look to skim our northern Bluegrass counties
and possibly our southeast Indiana counties.

For the rest of the day expect isld-sct showers/storms most numerous
east of I-65.  The upper level ridging will sharpen to our west
gradually pulling back the convectively active periphery tonight and
especially for Sat.  As we enter the train of subtle shortwaves in
the periphery of the ridge expect westward expansion of convection
and better coverage of storms over all.  Saturday we may even see a
weak back door cold front push close to the region from the NE
providing additional focus for storms.  PWATs and instability will
remain high over the next few days, but wind profiles will be
marginal at best.  Thus, think that scattered storms should remain
below severe limits.  The strongest storms may contain heavy
rainfall...gusty winds up to 40 mph...and dangerous lightning.

Temperatures and heat indices in the short term period still look on
track with a Heat Advisory in place through Monday.  Temperatures
should reach the low to mid 90s for highs today and Saturday.  These
temperatures combined with dewpts in the lower 70s will result in
heat indices of 100-105 each afternoon.  We won`t see much reprieve
from the heat tonight with low temps progged in the low to mid 70s
under humid conditions.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Hot humid weather to continue through Wednesday...with a trend
towards cooler temperatures beginning Thursday...

500mb ridging will remain anchored over the Lower Ohio Valley, even
as the upper air pattern amplifies over North America.

An upper air trough will amplify in place this weekend off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast. Farther west, a positively tilted longwave
trough will bring cooler weather to the northern Rockies and plains
as a shortwave is forecast to move northeast early Monday north of
Minnesota.

Ridging will build northeastwards over the weekend from the Lower
Mississippi Valley towards the western Great Lakes, but will be
prevented from moving much eastwards by the stationary trough off
the eastern coast. It will become somewhat squeezed and narrower in
amplitude early next week as the ridge axis remains just to the west
of the Commonwealth.

Unusually humid and muggy (even for August) conditions will continue
Saturday through Monday as PWATs near or above 2 inches will
accompany surface dewpoints over 70. Daytime highs Sunday and Monday
will reach the lower to mid 90s. Overnight lows will stay quite warm
and uncomfortable, falling only into the lower to mid 70s. Winds
will be quite light, with nearly calm winds overnight and variable
winds during the afternoons. Heat indices each afternoon will
probably approach or exceed 100. In what has been a coolish summer
so far, hot weather through early next week will establish our
longest stretch of hot and humid weather for the entire season.

Usually, if the Lower Ohio Valley under such a strong ridge in
August, rainfall chances are quite sparse. However, in this case,
will continue with current forecast of possible scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. With such a
moist atmosphere, and very light winds aloft. Any storm will be slow
moving and could produce localized heavy rainfall.

By Tuesday, the 500mb ridge axis will sag southeast right over the
Commonwealth. Winds will become light southwesterly by late
Wednesday as a surface trough approaches from the northwest.
Currently the GFS is faster with a potential cold front Thursday
compared with the ECMWF. Both forecast a chance of rain Thursday
along with cooler and less humid conditions by at least late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

VFR TAFs are forecast as ridging has strengthened over the area
keeping showers/storms north of the terminals at least through the
morning hours.  Ridging is expected to sharpen to our west today
possibly pulling back the active periphery into our region which may
result in isld-sct storms this afternoon/evening at SDF/LEX and then
later tonight at BWG also.  Went conservative with just a VCSH
mention for later today.  This may need to be adjusted though as we
see how the ridge evolves.  Winds will remain S-SW throughout the
TAF period with max speeds of 7-9 kts this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-045-053-
     061>064-070>076.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221044
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
644 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

Updated the forecast to delay POPs until late morning/early
afternoon.  The complex of storms over north central Indiana and
northern Illinois will continue to sag south and east throughout the
day.  It`s difficult to time southward progress due to the ridging
over the area, but will delay convection through most of the morning
hours with this update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Heat and Humidity have Arrived...

Strong ridging has built in over the region keeping convection to
our north and east early this morning.  The only exception will be a
few showers/storms that look to skim our northern Bluegrass counties
and possibly our southeast Indiana counties.

For the rest of the day expect isld-sct showers/storms most numerous
east of I-65.  The upper level ridging will sharpen to our west
gradually pulling back the convectively active periphery tonight and
especially for Sat.  As we enter the train of subtle shortwaves in
the periphery of the ridge expect westward expansion of convection
and better coverage of storms over all.  Saturday we may even see a
weak back door cold front push close to the region from the NE
providing additional focus for storms.  PWATs and instability will
remain high over the next few days, but wind profiles will be
marginal at best.  Thus, think that scattered storms should remain
below severe limits.  The strongest storms may contain heavy
rainfall...gusty winds up to 40 mph...and dangerous lightning.

Temperatures and heat indices in the short term period still look on
track with a Heat Advisory in place through Monday.  Temperatures
should reach the low to mid 90s for highs today and Saturday.  These
temperatures combined with dewpts in the lower 70s will result in
heat indices of 100-105 each afternoon.  We won`t see much reprieve
from the heat tonight with low temps progged in the low to mid 70s
under humid conditions.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Hot humid weather to continue through Wednesday...with a trend
towards cooler temperatures beginning Thursday...

500mb ridging will remain anchored over the Lower Ohio Valley, even
as the upper air pattern amplifies over North America.

An upper air trough will amplify in place this weekend off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast. Farther west, a positively tilted longwave
trough will bring cooler weather to the northern Rockies and plains
as a shortwave is forecast to move northeast early Monday north of
Minnesota.

Ridging will build northeastwards over the weekend from the Lower
Mississippi Valley towards the western Great Lakes, but will be
prevented from moving much eastwards by the stationary trough off
the eastern coast. It will become somewhat squeezed and narrower in
amplitude early next week as the ridge axis remains just to the west
of the Commonwealth.

Unusually humid and muggy (even for August) conditions will continue
Saturday through Monday as PWATs near or above 2 inches will
accompany surface dewpoints over 70. Daytime highs Sunday and Monday
will reach the lower to mid 90s. Overnight lows will stay quite warm
and uncomfortable, falling only into the lower to mid 70s. Winds
will be quite light, with nearly calm winds overnight and variable
winds during the afternoons. Heat indices each afternoon will
probably approach or exceed 100. In what has been a coolish summer
so far, hot weather through early next week will establish our
longest stretch of hot and humid weather for the entire season.

Usually, if the Lower Ohio Valley under such a strong ridge in
August, rainfall chances are quite sparse. However, in this case,
will continue with current forecast of possible scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. With such a
moist atmosphere, and very light winds aloft. Any storm will be slow
moving and could produce localized heavy rainfall.

By Tuesday, the 500mb ridge axis will sag southeast right over the
Commonwealth. Winds will become light southwesterly by late
Wednesday as a surface trough approaches from the northwest.
Currently the GFS is faster with a potential cold front Thursday
compared with the ECMWF. Both forecast a chance of rain Thursday
along with cooler and less humid conditions by at least late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

VFR TAFs are forecast as ridging has strengthened over the area
keeping showers/storms north of the terminals at least through the
morning hours.  Ridging is expected to sharpen to our west today
possibly pulling back the active periphery into our region which may
result in isld-sct storms this afternoon/evening at SDF/LEX and then
later tonight at BWG also.  Went conservative with just a VCSH
mention for later today.  This may need to be adjusted though as we
see how the ridge evolves.  Winds will remain S-SW throughout the
TAF period with max speeds of 7-9 kts this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-045-053-
     061>064-070>076.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221025
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
625 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

Updated the forecast to delay POPs until late morning/early
afternoon.  The complex of storms over north central Indiana and
northern Illinois will continue to sag south and east throughout the
day.  It`s difficult to time southward progress due to the ridging
over the area, but will delay convection through most of the morning
hours with this update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Heat and Humidity have Arrived...

Strong ridging has built in over the region keeping convection to
our north and east early this morning.  The only exception will be a
few showers/storms that look to skim our northern Bluegrass counties
and possibly our southeast Indiana counties.

For the rest of the day expect isld-sct showers/storms most numerous
east of I-65.  The upper level ridging will sharpen to our west
gradually pulling back the convectively active periphery tonight and
especially for Sat.  As we enter the train of subtle shortwaves in
the periphery of the ridge expect westward expansion of convection
and better coverage of storms over all.  Saturday we may even see a
weak back door cold front push close to the region from the NE
providing additional focus for storms.  PWATs and instability will
remain high over the next few days, but wind profiles will be
marginal at best.  Thus, think that scattered storms should remain
below severe limits.  The strongest storms may contain heavy
rainfall...gusty winds up to 40 mph...and dangerous lightning.

Temperatures and heat indices in the short term period still look on
track with a Heat Advisory in place through Monday.  Temperatures
should reach the low to mid 90s for highs today and Saturday.  These
temperatures combined with dewpts in the lower 70s will result in
heat indices of 100-105 each afternoon.  We won`t see much reprieve
from the heat tonight with low temps progged in the low to mid 70s
under humid conditions.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Hot humid weather to continue through Wednesday...with a trend
towards cooler temperatures beginning Thursday...

500mb ridging will remain anchored over the Lower Ohio Valley, even
as the upper air pattern amplifies over North America.

An upper air trough will amplify in place this weekend off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast. Farther west, a positively tilted longwave
trough will bring cooler weather to the northern Rockies and plains
as a shortwave is forecast to move northeast early Monday north of
Minnesota.

Ridging will build northeastwards over the weekend from the Lower
Mississippi Valley towards the western Great Lakes, but will be
prevented from moving much eastwards by the stationary trough off
the eastern coast. It will become somewhat squeezed and narrower in
amplitude early next week as the ridge axis remains just to the west
of the Commonwealth.

Unusually humid and muggy (even for August) conditions will continue
Saturday through Monday as PWATs near or above 2 inches will
accompany surface dewpoints over 70. Daytime highs Sunday and Monday
will reach the lower to mid 90s. Overnight lows will stay quite warm
and uncomfortable, falling only into the lower to mid 70s. Winds
will be quite light, with nearly calm winds overnight and variable
winds during the afternoons. Heat indices each afternoon will
probably approach or exceed 100. In what has been a coolish summer
so far, hot weather through early next week will establish our
longest stretch of hot and humid weather for the entire season.

Usually, if the Lower Ohio Valley under such a strong ridge in
August, rainfall chances are quite sparse. However, in this case,
will continue with current forecast of possible scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. With such a
moist atmosphere, and very light winds aloft. Any storm will be slow
moving and could produce localized heavy rainfall.

By Tuesday, the 500mb ridge axis will sag southeast right over the
Commonwealth. Winds will become light southwesterly by late
Wednesday as a surface trough approaches from the northwest.
Currently the GFS is faster with a potential cold front Thursday
compared with the ECMWF. Both forecast a chance of rain Thursday
along with cooler and less humid conditions by at least late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

VFR TAFs are forecast as ridging has strengthened over the area
keeping showers/storms north of the terminals at least through the
morning hours.  Ridging is expected to sharpen to our west today
possibly pulling back the active periphery into our region which may
result in isld-sct storms this afternoon/evening at SDF/LEX.  Went
conservative with just a VCSH mention for later today.  This may
need to be adjusted though as we see how the ridge evolves.  Winds
will remain S-SW throughout the TAF period with max speeds of 7-9
kts this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-045-053-
     061>064-070>076.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221025
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
625 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

Updated the forecast to delay POPs until late morning/early
afternoon.  The complex of storms over north central Indiana and
northern Illinois will continue to sag south and east throughout the
day.  It`s difficult to time southward progress due to the ridging
over the area, but will delay convection through most of the morning
hours with this update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Heat and Humidity have Arrived...

Strong ridging has built in over the region keeping convection to
our north and east early this morning.  The only exception will be a
few showers/storms that look to skim our northern Bluegrass counties
and possibly our southeast Indiana counties.

For the rest of the day expect isld-sct showers/storms most numerous
east of I-65.  The upper level ridging will sharpen to our west
gradually pulling back the convectively active periphery tonight and
especially for Sat.  As we enter the train of subtle shortwaves in
the periphery of the ridge expect westward expansion of convection
and better coverage of storms over all.  Saturday we may even see a
weak back door cold front push close to the region from the NE
providing additional focus for storms.  PWATs and instability will
remain high over the next few days, but wind profiles will be
marginal at best.  Thus, think that scattered storms should remain
below severe limits.  The strongest storms may contain heavy
rainfall...gusty winds up to 40 mph...and dangerous lightning.

Temperatures and heat indices in the short term period still look on
track with a Heat Advisory in place through Monday.  Temperatures
should reach the low to mid 90s for highs today and Saturday.  These
temperatures combined with dewpts in the lower 70s will result in
heat indices of 100-105 each afternoon.  We won`t see much reprieve
from the heat tonight with low temps progged in the low to mid 70s
under humid conditions.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Hot humid weather to continue through Wednesday...with a trend
towards cooler temperatures beginning Thursday...

500mb ridging will remain anchored over the Lower Ohio Valley, even
as the upper air pattern amplifies over North America.

An upper air trough will amplify in place this weekend off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast. Farther west, a positively tilted longwave
trough will bring cooler weather to the northern Rockies and plains
as a shortwave is forecast to move northeast early Monday north of
Minnesota.

Ridging will build northeastwards over the weekend from the Lower
Mississippi Valley towards the western Great Lakes, but will be
prevented from moving much eastwards by the stationary trough off
the eastern coast. It will become somewhat squeezed and narrower in
amplitude early next week as the ridge axis remains just to the west
of the Commonwealth.

Unusually humid and muggy (even for August) conditions will continue
Saturday through Monday as PWATs near or above 2 inches will
accompany surface dewpoints over 70. Daytime highs Sunday and Monday
will reach the lower to mid 90s. Overnight lows will stay quite warm
and uncomfortable, falling only into the lower to mid 70s. Winds
will be quite light, with nearly calm winds overnight and variable
winds during the afternoons. Heat indices each afternoon will
probably approach or exceed 100. In what has been a coolish summer
so far, hot weather through early next week will establish our
longest stretch of hot and humid weather for the entire season.

Usually, if the Lower Ohio Valley under such a strong ridge in
August, rainfall chances are quite sparse. However, in this case,
will continue with current forecast of possible scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. With such a
moist atmosphere, and very light winds aloft. Any storm will be slow
moving and could produce localized heavy rainfall.

By Tuesday, the 500mb ridge axis will sag southeast right over the
Commonwealth. Winds will become light southwesterly by late
Wednesday as a surface trough approaches from the northwest.
Currently the GFS is faster with a potential cold front Thursday
compared with the ECMWF. Both forecast a chance of rain Thursday
along with cooler and less humid conditions by at least late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

VFR TAFs are forecast as ridging has strengthened over the area
keeping showers/storms north of the terminals at least through the
morning hours.  Ridging is expected to sharpen to our west today
possibly pulling back the active periphery into our region which may
result in isld-sct storms this afternoon/evening at SDF/LEX.  Went
conservative with just a VCSH mention for later today.  This may
need to be adjusted though as we see how the ridge evolves.  Winds
will remain S-SW throughout the TAF period with max speeds of 7-9
kts this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-045-053-
     061>064-070>076.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 220707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Heat and Humidity have Arrived...

Strong ridging has built in over the region keeping convection to
our north and east early this morning.  The only exception will be a
few showers/storms that look to skim our northern Bluegrass counties
and possibly our southeast Indiana counties.

For the rest of the day expect isld-sct showers/storms most numerous
east of I-65.  The upper level ridging will sharpen to our west
gradually pulling back the convectively active periphery tonight and
especially for Sat.  As we enter the train of subtle shortwaves in
the periphery of the ridge expect westward expansion of convection
and better coverage of storms over all.  Saturday we may even see a
weak back door cold front push close to the region from the NE
providing additional focus for storms.  PWATs and instability will
remain high over the next few days, but wind profiles will be
marginal at best.  Thus, think that scattered storms should remain
below severe limits.  The strongest storms may contain heavy
rainfall...gusty winds up to 40 mph...and dangerous lightning.

Temperatures and heat indices in the short term period still look on
track with a Heat Advisory in place through Monday.  Temperatures
should reach the low to mid 90s for highs today and Saturday.  These
temperatures combined with dewpts in the lower 70s will result in
heat indices of 100-105 each afternoon.  We won`t see much reprieve
from the heat tonight with low temps progged in the low to mid 70s
under humid conditions.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Hot humid weather to continue through Wednesday...with a trend
towards cooler temperatures beginning Thursday...

500mb ridging will remain anchored over the Lower Ohio Valley, even
as the upper air pattern amplifies over North America.

An upper air trough will amplify in place this weekend off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast. Farther west, a positively tilted longwave
trough will bring cooler weather to the northern Rockies and plains
as a shortwave is forecast to move northeast early Monday north of
Minnesota.

Ridging will build northeastwards over the weekend from the Lower
Mississippi Valley towards the western Great Lakes, but will be
prevented from moving much eastwards by the stationary trough off
the eastern coast. It will become somewhat squeezed and narrower in
amplitude early next week as the ridge axis remains just to the west
of the Commonwealth.

Unusually humid and muggy (even for August) conditions will continue
Saturday through Monday as PWATs near or above 2 inches will
accompany surface dewpoints over 70. Daytime highs Sunday and Monday
will reach the lower to mid 90s. Overnight lows will stay quite warm
and uncomfortable, falling only into the lower to mid 70s. Winds
will be quite light, with nearly calm winds overnight and variable
winds during the afternoons. Heat indices each afternoon will
probably approach or exceed 100. In what has been a coolish summer
so far, hot weather through early next week will establish our
longest stretch of hot and humid weather for the entire season.

Usually, if the Lower Ohio Valley under such a strong ridge in
August, rainfall chances are quite sparse. However, in this case,
will continue with current forecast of possible scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. With such a
moist atmosphere, and very light winds aloft. Any storm will be slow
moving and could produce localized heavy rainfall.

By Tuesday, the 500mb ridge axis will sag southeast right over the
Commonwealth. Winds will become light southwesterly by late
Wednesday as a surface trough approaches from the northwest.
Currently the GFS is faster with a potential cold front Thursday
compared with the ECMWF. Both forecast a chance of rain Thursday
along with cooler and less humid conditions by at least late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

VFR TAFs are forecast as ridging has strengthened over the area
keeping showers/storms north of the terminals at least through the
morning hours.  Ridging is expected to sharpen to our west today
possibly pulling back the active periphery into our region which may
result in isld-sct storms this afternoon/evening at SDF/LEX.  Went
conservative with just a VCSH mention for later today.  This may
need to be adjusted though as we see how the ridge evolves.  Winds
will remain S-SW throughout the TAF period with max speeds of 7-9
kts this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-045-053-
     061>064-070>076.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220521
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

Updated the forecast to tweak POPs slightly.  Looks like the complex
of storms to our north will make it into southeast Indiana and
extreme northern KY as it continues to weaken.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

A 500 mb ridge will continue to build across the Midwest through the
short term period. This will keep the Lower Ohio Valley in
northwesterly flow aloft, though it will become more
north-northwesterly by Friday night. At the surface the boundaries
will remain to the north keeping us in warm southerly flow.

For the remainder of the afternoon, an upper level disturbance will
continue to push east and as it does showers and storms will shift
eastward. There is still a chance for some strong storms over the
Bluegrass over the next few hours with gusty winds and possibly
small hail. This activity should move east by early evening.
Thereafter, it looks like there will be a break through much of the
evening and overnight period.

For tomorrow another shortwave will dive through the northwesterly
flow during the morning. Precipitation chances will start to
increase around daybreak, particularly across southern IN and north
central KY. A secondary weak vortmax looks to also move through
tomorrow evening. This could result in a couple of rounds of showers
and storms tomorrow. Again the best chance for storms tomorrow will
be across southern Indiana and east central Kentucky. Given the more
northwesterly flow aloft tomorrow, storms could develop a bit
further west across central KY than they did today. Still will keep
coverage scattered. The chance for strong to marginally severe
storms is a bit in question tomorrow given the ongoing early
convection and presence of clouds. Models do indicate some moderate
instability developing by afternoon, so a few strong storms with
gusty wind and small hail are not out of the question.

With the ridge building in to the west heights will build aloft.
Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the low to mid 90s. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s this will result in heat
indices ranging from the mid 90s in the east to the lower 100s in
the central and west part of the forecast area. Overnight lows will
remain on the warm side in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Unsettled Weather into Early Next Week...

Once again, all eyes are on the stout upper ridge over the southeast
United States for the long term forecast.  How hot and humid will it
get, and how long will it stick around?

While there was good agreement among the models on where and how the
ridge would form, there was significant disagreement on how long it
would last. The GFS has been pretty consistent over its last several
runs with its upper trof/ridge/trof pattern from the Rockies to the
western Atlantic.  Also, the operational run agrees fairly closely
with the ensemble mean at 500 hPa.  It does get some general support
from the CFS by the tail end of the forecast period as well.
Finally, the 12Z/21 run of the ECMWF has trended significantly
toward the current GFS solution.  So, will lean heavily on the GFS
for this forecast.

Given that, the summertime southeast U.S. upper ridge is expected to
hold its ground through at least Tuesday night, providing us with
hazy, hot, and humid conditions.  A trof invading from the northwest
will then flatten the ridge Wed/Thu as it cruises from the Plains to
the Great Lakes. This is a source of uncertainty in the forecast,
though, as we`ll have to see if the trof is able to eat into the
strong ridge as much as is currently advertised.

As noted in previous forecasts, storms will still be in the forecast
despite the upper ridging.  The center of the ridge remains just off
to our south/west for much of the time, and mid level capping is
weak.  So, isolated/scattered diurnal afternoon/evening convection
can`t be ruled out.  The best chances for storms will be from
southern Indiana through the Blue Grass, and the best chances for
heat will be across western and southern portions of central
Kentucky.  Mid-level lapse rates are unimpressive and wet bulb
zeroes are very high, but a few of the stronger storms could produce
some locally strong wind gusts.

Afternoon highs will be in the lower and middle 90s Saturday through
Monday, and around 90 Tuesday through Thursday. Dew points through
at least Tuesday will be very uncomfortable in the lower and middle
70s.  As a result, we`ll stay warm at night with lows in the 70s.

Since one of the criteria for a Heat Advisory is heat index readings
of 100-105 for four consecutive days, we`ll go ahead and hoist the
headline for Friday through Monday.  In addition to satisfying the
criteria, this will also raise awareness for weekend outdoor
activities such as the Kentucky State Fair.  We`ll restrict the
advisory to about the western two-thirds of the LMK CWA where the
chances for headline-worthy heat are the greatest.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

VFR TAFs are forecast as ridging has strengthened over the area
keeping showers/storms north of the terminals at least through the
morning hours.  Ridging is expected to sharpen to our west today
possibly pulling back the active periphery into our region which may
result in isld-sct storms this afternoon/evening at SDF/LEX.  Went
conservative with just a VCSH mention for later today.  This may
need to be adjusted though as we see how the ridge evolves.  Winds
will remain S-SW throughout the TAF period with max speeds of 7-9
kts this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-045-053-
     061>064-070>076.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......13
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 220521
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

Updated the forecast to tweak POPs slightly.  Looks like the complex
of storms to our north will make it into southeast Indiana and
extreme northern KY as it continues to weaken.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

A 500 mb ridge will continue to build across the Midwest through the
short term period. This will keep the Lower Ohio Valley in
northwesterly flow aloft, though it will become more
north-northwesterly by Friday night. At the surface the boundaries
will remain to the north keeping us in warm southerly flow.

For the remainder of the afternoon, an upper level disturbance will
continue to push east and as it does showers and storms will shift
eastward. There is still a chance for some strong storms over the
Bluegrass over the next few hours with gusty winds and possibly
small hail. This activity should move east by early evening.
Thereafter, it looks like there will be a break through much of the
evening and overnight period.

For tomorrow another shortwave will dive through the northwesterly
flow during the morning. Precipitation chances will start to
increase around daybreak, particularly across southern IN and north
central KY. A secondary weak vortmax looks to also move through
tomorrow evening. This could result in a couple of rounds of showers
and storms tomorrow. Again the best chance for storms tomorrow will
be across southern Indiana and east central Kentucky. Given the more
northwesterly flow aloft tomorrow, storms could develop a bit
further west across central KY than they did today. Still will keep
coverage scattered. The chance for strong to marginally severe
storms is a bit in question tomorrow given the ongoing early
convection and presence of clouds. Models do indicate some moderate
instability developing by afternoon, so a few strong storms with
gusty wind and small hail are not out of the question.

With the ridge building in to the west heights will build aloft.
Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the low to mid 90s. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s this will result in heat
indices ranging from the mid 90s in the east to the lower 100s in
the central and west part of the forecast area. Overnight lows will
remain on the warm side in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Unsettled Weather into Early Next Week...

Once again, all eyes are on the stout upper ridge over the southeast
United States for the long term forecast.  How hot and humid will it
get, and how long will it stick around?

While there was good agreement among the models on where and how the
ridge would form, there was significant disagreement on how long it
would last. The GFS has been pretty consistent over its last several
runs with its upper trof/ridge/trof pattern from the Rockies to the
western Atlantic.  Also, the operational run agrees fairly closely
with the ensemble mean at 500 hPa.  It does get some general support
from the CFS by the tail end of the forecast period as well.
Finally, the 12Z/21 run of the ECMWF has trended significantly
toward the current GFS solution.  So, will lean heavily on the GFS
for this forecast.

Given that, the summertime southeast U.S. upper ridge is expected to
hold its ground through at least Tuesday night, providing us with
hazy, hot, and humid conditions.  A trof invading from the northwest
will then flatten the ridge Wed/Thu as it cruises from the Plains to
the Great Lakes. This is a source of uncertainty in the forecast,
though, as we`ll have to see if the trof is able to eat into the
strong ridge as much as is currently advertised.

As noted in previous forecasts, storms will still be in the forecast
despite the upper ridging.  The center of the ridge remains just off
to our south/west for much of the time, and mid level capping is
weak.  So, isolated/scattered diurnal afternoon/evening convection
can`t be ruled out.  The best chances for storms will be from
southern Indiana through the Blue Grass, and the best chances for
heat will be across western and southern portions of central
Kentucky.  Mid-level lapse rates are unimpressive and wet bulb
zeroes are very high, but a few of the stronger storms could produce
some locally strong wind gusts.

Afternoon highs will be in the lower and middle 90s Saturday through
Monday, and around 90 Tuesday through Thursday. Dew points through
at least Tuesday will be very uncomfortable in the lower and middle
70s.  As a result, we`ll stay warm at night with lows in the 70s.

Since one of the criteria for a Heat Advisory is heat index readings
of 100-105 for four consecutive days, we`ll go ahead and hoist the
headline for Friday through Monday.  In addition to satisfying the
criteria, this will also raise awareness for weekend outdoor
activities such as the Kentucky State Fair.  We`ll restrict the
advisory to about the western two-thirds of the LMK CWA where the
chances for headline-worthy heat are the greatest.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

VFR TAFs are forecast as ridging has strengthened over the area
keeping showers/storms north of the terminals at least through the
morning hours.  Ridging is expected to sharpen to our west today
possibly pulling back the active periphery into our region which may
result in isld-sct storms this afternoon/evening at SDF/LEX.  Went
conservative with just a VCSH mention for later today.  This may
need to be adjusted though as we see how the ridge evolves.  Winds
will remain S-SW throughout the TAF period with max speeds of 7-9
kts this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-045-053-
     061>064-070>076.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......13
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220436
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1236 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

Updated the forecast to tweak POPs slightly.  Looks like the complex
of storms to our north will make it into southeast Indiana and
extreme northern KY as it continues to weaken.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

A 500 mb ridge will continue to build across the Midwest through the
short term period. This will keep the Lower Ohio Valley in
northwesterly flow aloft, though it will become more
north-northwesterly by Friday night. At the surface the boundaries
will remain to the north keeping us in warm southerly flow.

For the remainder of the afternoon, an upper level disturbance will
continue to push east and as it does showers and storms will shift
eastward. There is still a chance for some strong storms over the
Bluegrass over the next few hours with gusty winds and possibly
small hail. This activity should move east by early evening.
Thereafter, it looks like there will be a break through much of the
evening and overnight period.

For tomorrow another shortwave will dive through the northwesterly
flow during the morning. Precipitation chances will start to
increase around daybreak, particularly across southern IN and north
central KY. A secondary weak vortmax looks to also move through
tomorrow evening. This could result in a couple of rounds of showers
and storms tomorrow. Again the best chance for storms tomorrow will
be across southern Indiana and east central Kentucky. Given the more
northwesterly flow aloft tomorrow, storms could develop a bit
further west across central KY than they did today. Still will keep
coverage scattered. The chance for strong to marginally severe
storms is a bit in question tomorrow given the ongoing early
convection and presence of clouds. Models do indicate some moderate
instability developing by afternoon, so a few strong storms with
gusty wind and small hail are not out of the question.

With the ridge building in to the west heights will build aloft.
Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the low to mid 90s. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s this will result in heat
indices ranging from the mid 90s in the east to the lower 100s in
the central and west part of the forecast area. Overnight lows will
remain on the warm side in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Unsettled Weather into Early Next Week...

Once again, all eyes are on the stout upper ridge over the southeast
United States for the long term forecast.  How hot and humid will it
get, and how long will it stick around?

While there was good agreement among the models on where and how the
ridge would form, there was significant disagreement on how long it
would last. The GFS has been pretty consistent over its last several
runs with its upper trof/ridge/trof pattern from the Rockies to the
western Atlantic.  Also, the operational run agrees fairly closely
with the ensemble mean at 500 hPa.  It does get some general support
from the CFS by the tail end of the forecast period as well.
Finally, the 12Z/21 run of the ECMWF has trended significantly
toward the current GFS solution.  So, will lean heavily on the GFS
for this forecast.

Given that, the summertime southeast U.S. upper ridge is expected to
hold its ground through at least Tuesday night, providing us with
hazy, hot, and humid conditions.  A trof invading from the northwest
will then flatten the ridge Wed/Thu as it cruises from the Plains to
the Great Lakes. This is a source of uncertainty in the forecast,
though, as we`ll have to see if the trof is able to eat into the
strong ridge as much as is currently advertised.

As noted in previous forecasts, storms will still be in the forecast
despite the upper ridging.  The center of the ridge remains just off
to our south/west for much of the time, and mid level capping is
weak.  So, isolated/scattered diurnal afternoon/evening convection
can`t be ruled out.  The best chances for storms will be from
southern Indiana through the Blue Grass, and the best chances for
heat will be across western and southern portions of central
Kentucky.  Mid-level lapse rates are unimpressive and wet bulb
zeroes are very high, but a few of the stronger storms could produce
some locally strong wind gusts.

Afternoon highs will be in the lower and middle 90s Saturday through
Monday, and around 90 Tuesday through Thursday. Dew points through
at least Tuesday will be very uncomfortable in the lower and middle
70s.  As a result, we`ll stay warm at night with lows in the 70s.

Since one of the criteria for a Heat Advisory is heat index readings
of 100-105 for four consecutive days, we`ll go ahead and hoist the
headline for Friday through Monday.  In addition to satisfying the
criteria, this will also raise awareness for weekend outdoor
activities such as the Kentucky State Fair.  We`ll restrict the
advisory to about the western two-thirds of the LMK CWA where the
chances for headline-worthy heat are the greatest.

&&

.AVIATION (0Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 643 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

As high pressure aloft builds in, the main storm track should remain
just to the north and east of the terminals.  A storm or two could
slip into the SDF/LOU/LEX airspace, but coverage and chances are too
slim for anything in the TAFs right now. Best shot at convection
will be at LEX Friday afternoon.

Looks like fog chances are small enough tonight to keep visibility
restrictions from the TAFs.  The best chance for some MVFR HZ/BR
will be at LEX around dawn.

Winds will generally be from the southwest below 10 knots through
the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-045-053-
     061>064-070>076.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......13
Aviation.......13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220436
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1236 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

Updated the forecast to tweak POPs slightly.  Looks like the complex
of storms to our north will make it into southeast Indiana and
extreme northern KY as it continues to weaken.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

A 500 mb ridge will continue to build across the Midwest through the
short term period. This will keep the Lower Ohio Valley in
northwesterly flow aloft, though it will become more
north-northwesterly by Friday night. At the surface the boundaries
will remain to the north keeping us in warm southerly flow.

For the remainder of the afternoon, an upper level disturbance will
continue to push east and as it does showers and storms will shift
eastward. There is still a chance for some strong storms over the
Bluegrass over the next few hours with gusty winds and possibly
small hail. This activity should move east by early evening.
Thereafter, it looks like there will be a break through much of the
evening and overnight period.

For tomorrow another shortwave will dive through the northwesterly
flow during the morning. Precipitation chances will start to
increase around daybreak, particularly across southern IN and north
central KY. A secondary weak vortmax looks to also move through
tomorrow evening. This could result in a couple of rounds of showers
and storms tomorrow. Again the best chance for storms tomorrow will
be across southern Indiana and east central Kentucky. Given the more
northwesterly flow aloft tomorrow, storms could develop a bit
further west across central KY than they did today. Still will keep
coverage scattered. The chance for strong to marginally severe
storms is a bit in question tomorrow given the ongoing early
convection and presence of clouds. Models do indicate some moderate
instability developing by afternoon, so a few strong storms with
gusty wind and small hail are not out of the question.

With the ridge building in to the west heights will build aloft.
Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the low to mid 90s. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s this will result in heat
indices ranging from the mid 90s in the east to the lower 100s in
the central and west part of the forecast area. Overnight lows will
remain on the warm side in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Unsettled Weather into Early Next Week...

Once again, all eyes are on the stout upper ridge over the southeast
United States for the long term forecast.  How hot and humid will it
get, and how long will it stick around?

While there was good agreement among the models on where and how the
ridge would form, there was significant disagreement on how long it
would last. The GFS has been pretty consistent over its last several
runs with its upper trof/ridge/trof pattern from the Rockies to the
western Atlantic.  Also, the operational run agrees fairly closely
with the ensemble mean at 500 hPa.  It does get some general support
from the CFS by the tail end of the forecast period as well.
Finally, the 12Z/21 run of the ECMWF has trended significantly
toward the current GFS solution.  So, will lean heavily on the GFS
for this forecast.

Given that, the summertime southeast U.S. upper ridge is expected to
hold its ground through at least Tuesday night, providing us with
hazy, hot, and humid conditions.  A trof invading from the northwest
will then flatten the ridge Wed/Thu as it cruises from the Plains to
the Great Lakes. This is a source of uncertainty in the forecast,
though, as we`ll have to see if the trof is able to eat into the
strong ridge as much as is currently advertised.

As noted in previous forecasts, storms will still be in the forecast
despite the upper ridging.  The center of the ridge remains just off
to our south/west for much of the time, and mid level capping is
weak.  So, isolated/scattered diurnal afternoon/evening convection
can`t be ruled out.  The best chances for storms will be from
southern Indiana through the Blue Grass, and the best chances for
heat will be across western and southern portions of central
Kentucky.  Mid-level lapse rates are unimpressive and wet bulb
zeroes are very high, but a few of the stronger storms could produce
some locally strong wind gusts.

Afternoon highs will be in the lower and middle 90s Saturday through
Monday, and around 90 Tuesday through Thursday. Dew points through
at least Tuesday will be very uncomfortable in the lower and middle
70s.  As a result, we`ll stay warm at night with lows in the 70s.

Since one of the criteria for a Heat Advisory is heat index readings
of 100-105 for four consecutive days, we`ll go ahead and hoist the
headline for Friday through Monday.  In addition to satisfying the
criteria, this will also raise awareness for weekend outdoor
activities such as the Kentucky State Fair.  We`ll restrict the
advisory to about the western two-thirds of the LMK CWA where the
chances for headline-worthy heat are the greatest.

&&

.AVIATION (0Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 643 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

As high pressure aloft builds in, the main storm track should remain
just to the north and east of the terminals.  A storm or two could
slip into the SDF/LOU/LEX airspace, but coverage and chances are too
slim for anything in the TAFs right now. Best shot at convection
will be at LEX Friday afternoon.

Looks like fog chances are small enough tonight to keep visibility
restrictions from the TAFs.  The best chance for some MVFR HZ/BR
will be at LEX around dawn.

Winds will generally be from the southwest below 10 knots through
the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-045-053-
     061>064-070>076.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday FOR INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......13
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 212243
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
643 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

A 500 mb ridge will continue to build across the Midwest through the
short term period. This will keep the Lower Ohio Valley in
northwesterly flow aloft, though it will become more
north-northwesterly by Friday night. At the surface the boundaries
will remain to the north keeping us in warm southerly flow.

For the remainder of the afternoon, an upper level disturbance will
continue to push east and as it does showers and storms will shift
eastward. There is still a chance for some strong storms over the
Bluegrass over the next few hours with gusty winds and possibly
small hail. This activity should move east by early evening.
Thereafter, it looks like there will be a break through much of the
evening and overnight period.

For tomorrow another shortwave will dive through the northwesterly
flow during the morning. Precipitation chances will start to
increase around daybreak, particularly across southern IN and north
central KY. A secondary weak vortmax looks to also move through
tomorrow evening. This could result in a couple of rounds of showers
and storms tomorrow. Again the best chance for storms tomorrow will
be across southern Indiana and east central Kentucky. Given the more
northwesterly flow aloft tomorrow, storms could develop a bit
further west across central KY than they did today. Still will keep
coverage scattered. The chance for strong to marginally severe
storms is a bit in question tomorrow given the ongoing early
convection and presence of clouds. Models do indicate some moderate
instability developing by afternoon, so a few strong storms with
gusty wind and small hail are not out of the question.

With the ridge building in to the west heights will build aloft.
Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the low to mid 90s. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s this will result in heat
indices ranging from the mid 90s in the east to the lower 100s in
the central and west part of the forecast area. Overnight lows will
remain on the warm side in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Unsettled Weather into Early Next Week...

Once again, all eyes are on the stout upper ridge over the southeast
United States for the long term forecast.  How hot and humid will it
get, and how long will it stick around?

While there was good agreement among the models on where and how the
ridge would form, there was significant disagreement on how long it
would last. The GFS has been pretty consistent over its last several
runs with its upper trof/ridge/trof pattern from the Rockies to the
western Atlantic.  Also, the operational run agrees fairly closely
with the ensemble mean at 500 hPa.  It does get some general support
from the CFS by the tail end of the forecast period as well.
Finally, the 12Z/21 run of the ECMWF has trended significantly
toward the current GFS solution.  So, will lean heavily on the GFS
for this forecast.

Given that, the summertime southeast U.S. upper ridge is expected to
hold its ground through at least Tuesday night, providing us with
hazy, hot, and humid conditions.  A trof invading from the northwest
will then flatten the ridge Wed/Thu as it cruises from the Plains to
the Great Lakes. This is a source of uncertainty in the forecast,
though, as we`ll have to see if the trof is able to eat into the
strong ridge as much as is currently advertised.

As noted in previous forecasts, storms will still be in the forecast
despite the upper ridging.  The center of the ridge remains just off
to our south/west for much of the time, and mid level capping is
weak.  So, isolated/scattered diurnal afternoon/evening convection
can`t be ruled out.  The best chances for storms will be from
southern Indiana through the Blue Grass, and the best chances for
heat will be across western and southern portions of central
Kentucky.  Mid-level lapse rates are unimpressive and wet bulb
zeroes are very high, but a few of the stronger storms could produce
some locally strong wind gusts.

Afternoon highs will be in the lower and middle 90s Saturday through
Monday, and around 90 Tuesday through Thursday. Dew points through
at least Tuesday will be very uncomfortable in the lower and middle
70s.  As a result, we`ll stay warm at night with lows in the 70s.

Since one of the criteria for a Heat Advisory is heat index readings
of 100-105 for four consecutive days, we`ll go ahead and hoist the
headline for Friday through Monday.  In addition to satisfying the
criteria, this will also raise awareness for weekend outdoor
activities such as the Kentucky State Fair.  We`ll restrict the
advisory to about the western two-thirds of the LMK CWA where the
chances for headline-worthy heat are the greatest.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 643 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

As high pressure aloft builds in, the main storm track should remain
just to the north and east of the terminals.  A storm or two could
slip into the SDF/LOU/LEX airspace, but coverage and chances are too
slim for anything in the TAFs right now. Best shot at convection
will be at LEX Friday afternoon.

Looks like fog chances are small enough tonight to keep visibility
restrictions from the TAFs.  The best chance for some MVFR HZ/BR
will be at LEX around dawn.

Winds will generally be from the southwest below 10 knots through
the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday to 7 PM EDT /6 PM
     CDT/ Monday FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-045-053-061>064-070>076.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday to 7 PM EDT /6 PM
     CDT/ Monday FOR INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 212243
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
643 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

A 500 mb ridge will continue to build across the Midwest through the
short term period. This will keep the Lower Ohio Valley in
northwesterly flow aloft, though it will become more
north-northwesterly by Friday night. At the surface the boundaries
will remain to the north keeping us in warm southerly flow.

For the remainder of the afternoon, an upper level disturbance will
continue to push east and as it does showers and storms will shift
eastward. There is still a chance for some strong storms over the
Bluegrass over the next few hours with gusty winds and possibly
small hail. This activity should move east by early evening.
Thereafter, it looks like there will be a break through much of the
evening and overnight period.

For tomorrow another shortwave will dive through the northwesterly
flow during the morning. Precipitation chances will start to
increase around daybreak, particularly across southern IN and north
central KY. A secondary weak vortmax looks to also move through
tomorrow evening. This could result in a couple of rounds of showers
and storms tomorrow. Again the best chance for storms tomorrow will
be across southern Indiana and east central Kentucky. Given the more
northwesterly flow aloft tomorrow, storms could develop a bit
further west across central KY than they did today. Still will keep
coverage scattered. The chance for strong to marginally severe
storms is a bit in question tomorrow given the ongoing early
convection and presence of clouds. Models do indicate some moderate
instability developing by afternoon, so a few strong storms with
gusty wind and small hail are not out of the question.

With the ridge building in to the west heights will build aloft.
Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the low to mid 90s. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s this will result in heat
indices ranging from the mid 90s in the east to the lower 100s in
the central and west part of the forecast area. Overnight lows will
remain on the warm side in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Unsettled Weather into Early Next Week...

Once again, all eyes are on the stout upper ridge over the southeast
United States for the long term forecast.  How hot and humid will it
get, and how long will it stick around?

While there was good agreement among the models on where and how the
ridge would form, there was significant disagreement on how long it
would last. The GFS has been pretty consistent over its last several
runs with its upper trof/ridge/trof pattern from the Rockies to the
western Atlantic.  Also, the operational run agrees fairly closely
with the ensemble mean at 500 hPa.  It does get some general support
from the CFS by the tail end of the forecast period as well.
Finally, the 12Z/21 run of the ECMWF has trended significantly
toward the current GFS solution.  So, will lean heavily on the GFS
for this forecast.

Given that, the summertime southeast U.S. upper ridge is expected to
hold its ground through at least Tuesday night, providing us with
hazy, hot, and humid conditions.  A trof invading from the northwest
will then flatten the ridge Wed/Thu as it cruises from the Plains to
the Great Lakes. This is a source of uncertainty in the forecast,
though, as we`ll have to see if the trof is able to eat into the
strong ridge as much as is currently advertised.

As noted in previous forecasts, storms will still be in the forecast
despite the upper ridging.  The center of the ridge remains just off
to our south/west for much of the time, and mid level capping is
weak.  So, isolated/scattered diurnal afternoon/evening convection
can`t be ruled out.  The best chances for storms will be from
southern Indiana through the Blue Grass, and the best chances for
heat will be across western and southern portions of central
Kentucky.  Mid-level lapse rates are unimpressive and wet bulb
zeroes are very high, but a few of the stronger storms could produce
some locally strong wind gusts.

Afternoon highs will be in the lower and middle 90s Saturday through
Monday, and around 90 Tuesday through Thursday. Dew points through
at least Tuesday will be very uncomfortable in the lower and middle
70s.  As a result, we`ll stay warm at night with lows in the 70s.

Since one of the criteria for a Heat Advisory is heat index readings
of 100-105 for four consecutive days, we`ll go ahead and hoist the
headline for Friday through Monday.  In addition to satisfying the
criteria, this will also raise awareness for weekend outdoor
activities such as the Kentucky State Fair.  We`ll restrict the
advisory to about the western two-thirds of the LMK CWA where the
chances for headline-worthy heat are the greatest.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 643 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

As high pressure aloft builds in, the main storm track should remain
just to the north and east of the terminals.  A storm or two could
slip into the SDF/LOU/LEX airspace, but coverage and chances are too
slim for anything in the TAFs right now. Best shot at convection
will be at LEX Friday afternoon.

Looks like fog chances are small enough tonight to keep visibility
restrictions from the TAFs.  The best chance for some MVFR HZ/BR
will be at LEX around dawn.

Winds will generally be from the southwest below 10 knots through
the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday to 7 PM EDT /6 PM
     CDT/ Monday FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-045-053-061>064-070>076.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday to 7 PM EDT /6 PM
     CDT/ Monday FOR INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211934
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

A 500 mb ridge will continue to build across the Midwest through the
short term period. This will keep the Lower Ohio Valley in
northwesterly flow aloft, though it will become more
north-northwesterly by Friday night. At the surface the boundaries
will remain to the north keeping us in warm southerly flow.

For the remainder of the afternoon, an upper level disturbance will
continue to push east and as it does showers and storms will shift
eastward. There is still a chance for some strong storms over the
Bluegrass over the next few hours with gusty winds and possibly
small hail. This activity should move east by early evening.
Thereafter, it looks like there will be a break through much of the
evening and overnight period.

For tomorrow another shortwave will dive through the northwesterly
flow during the morning. Precipitation chances will start to
increase around daybreak, particularly across southern IN and north
central KY. A secondary weak vortmax looks to also move through
tomorrow evening. This could result in a couple of rounds of showers
and storms tomorrow. Again the best chance for storms tomorrow will
be across southern Indiana and east central Kentucky. Given the more
northwesterly flow aloft tomorrow, storms could develop a bit
further west across central KY than they did today. Still will keep
coverage scattered. The chance for strong to marginally severe
storms is a bit in question tomorrow given the ongoing early
convection and presence of clouds. Models do indicate some moderate
instability developing by afternoon, so a few strong storms with
gusty wind and small hail are not out of the question.

With the ridge building in to the west heights will build aloft.
Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the low to mid 90s. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s this will result in heat
indices ranging from the mid 90s in the east to the lower 100s in
the central and west part of the forecast area. Overnight lows will
remain on the warm side in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Unsettled Weather into Early Next Week...

Once again, all eyes are on the stout upper ridge over the southeast
United States for the long term forecast.  How hot and humid will it
get, and how long will it stick around?

While there was good agreement among the models on where and how the
ridge would form, there was significant disagreement on how long it
would last. The GFS has been pretty consistent over its last several
runs with its upper trof/ridge/trof pattern from the Rockies to the
western Atlantic.  Also, the operational run agrees fairly closely
with the ensemble mean at 500 hPa.  It does get some general support
from the CFS by the tail end of the forecast period as well.
Finally, the 12Z/21 run of the ECMWF has trended significantly
toward the current GFS solution.  So, will lean heavily on the GFS
for this forecast.

Given that, the summertime southeast U.S. upper ridge is expected to
hold its ground through at least Tuesday night, providing us with
hazy, hot, and humid conditions.  A trof invading from the northwest
will then flatten the ridge Wed/Thu as it cruises from the Plains to
the Great Lakes. This is a source of uncertainty in the forecast,
though, as we`ll have to see if the trof is able to eat into the
strong ridge as much as is currently advertised.

As noted in previous forecasts, storms will still be in the forecast
despite the upper ridging.  The center of the ridge remains just off
to our south/west for much of the time, and mid level capping is
weak.  So, isolated/scattered diurnal afternoon/evening convection
can`t be ruled out.  The best chances for storms will be from
southern Indiana through the Blue Grass, and the best chances for
heat will be across western and southern portions of central
Kentucky.  Mid-level lapse rates are unimpressive and wet bulb
zeroes are very high, but a few of the stronger storms could produce
some locally strong wind gusts.

Afternoon highs will be in the lower and middle 90s Saturday through
Monday, and around 90 Tuesday through Thursday. Dew points through
at least Tuesday will be very uncomfortable in the lower and middle
70s.  As a result, we`ll stay warm at night with lows in the 70s.

Since one of the criteria for a Heat Advisory is heat index readings
of 100-105 for four consecutive days, we`ll go ahead and hoist the
headline for Friday through Monday.  In addition to satisfying the
criteria, this will also raise awareness for weekend outdoor
activities such as the Kentucky State Fair.  We`ll restrict the
advisory to about  the western two-thirds of the LMK CWA where the
chances for headline-worthy heat are the greatest.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

High pressure aloft continue to build in across the region. This
will suppress thunderstorms keeping the TAF sites mostly sites dry
through the period. The only question will be LEX this afternoon
where an isolated shower or two could move over the airport.
However, chances are low so will likely leave precipitation out of
the TAF. Winds this afternoon will be out of the southwest. These
will shift to more southerly tonight and decrease to around 5 knots.
For tomorrow will keep the forecast dry once again with winds
shifting back to southwesterly.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211934
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

A 500 mb ridge will continue to build across the Midwest through the
short term period. This will keep the Lower Ohio Valley in
northwesterly flow aloft, though it will become more
north-northwesterly by Friday night. At the surface the boundaries
will remain to the north keeping us in warm southerly flow.

For the remainder of the afternoon, an upper level disturbance will
continue to push east and as it does showers and storms will shift
eastward. There is still a chance for some strong storms over the
Bluegrass over the next few hours with gusty winds and possibly
small hail. This activity should move east by early evening.
Thereafter, it looks like there will be a break through much of the
evening and overnight period.

For tomorrow another shortwave will dive through the northwesterly
flow during the morning. Precipitation chances will start to
increase around daybreak, particularly across southern IN and north
central KY. A secondary weak vortmax looks to also move through
tomorrow evening. This could result in a couple of rounds of showers
and storms tomorrow. Again the best chance for storms tomorrow will
be across southern Indiana and east central Kentucky. Given the more
northwesterly flow aloft tomorrow, storms could develop a bit
further west across central KY than they did today. Still will keep
coverage scattered. The chance for strong to marginally severe
storms is a bit in question tomorrow given the ongoing early
convection and presence of clouds. Models do indicate some moderate
instability developing by afternoon, so a few strong storms with
gusty wind and small hail are not out of the question.

With the ridge building in to the west heights will build aloft.
Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the low to mid 90s. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s this will result in heat
indices ranging from the mid 90s in the east to the lower 100s in
the central and west part of the forecast area. Overnight lows will
remain on the warm side in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Unsettled Weather into Early Next Week...

Once again, all eyes are on the stout upper ridge over the southeast
United States for the long term forecast.  How hot and humid will it
get, and how long will it stick around?

While there was good agreement among the models on where and how the
ridge would form, there was significant disagreement on how long it
would last. The GFS has been pretty consistent over its last several
runs with its upper trof/ridge/trof pattern from the Rockies to the
western Atlantic.  Also, the operational run agrees fairly closely
with the ensemble mean at 500 hPa.  It does get some general support
from the CFS by the tail end of the forecast period as well.
Finally, the 12Z/21 run of the ECMWF has trended significantly
toward the current GFS solution.  So, will lean heavily on the GFS
for this forecast.

Given that, the summertime southeast U.S. upper ridge is expected to
hold its ground through at least Tuesday night, providing us with
hazy, hot, and humid conditions.  A trof invading from the northwest
will then flatten the ridge Wed/Thu as it cruises from the Plains to
the Great Lakes. This is a source of uncertainty in the forecast,
though, as we`ll have to see if the trof is able to eat into the
strong ridge as much as is currently advertised.

As noted in previous forecasts, storms will still be in the forecast
despite the upper ridging.  The center of the ridge remains just off
to our south/west for much of the time, and mid level capping is
weak.  So, isolated/scattered diurnal afternoon/evening convection
can`t be ruled out.  The best chances for storms will be from
southern Indiana through the Blue Grass, and the best chances for
heat will be across western and southern portions of central
Kentucky.  Mid-level lapse rates are unimpressive and wet bulb
zeroes are very high, but a few of the stronger storms could produce
some locally strong wind gusts.

Afternoon highs will be in the lower and middle 90s Saturday through
Monday, and around 90 Tuesday through Thursday. Dew points through
at least Tuesday will be very uncomfortable in the lower and middle
70s.  As a result, we`ll stay warm at night with lows in the 70s.

Since one of the criteria for a Heat Advisory is heat index readings
of 100-105 for four consecutive days, we`ll go ahead and hoist the
headline for Friday through Monday.  In addition to satisfying the
criteria, this will also raise awareness for weekend outdoor
activities such as the Kentucky State Fair.  We`ll restrict the
advisory to about  the western two-thirds of the LMK CWA where the
chances for headline-worthy heat are the greatest.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

High pressure aloft continue to build in across the region. This
will suppress thunderstorms keeping the TAF sites mostly sites dry
through the period. The only question will be LEX this afternoon
where an isolated shower or two could move over the airport.
However, chances are low so will likely leave precipitation out of
the TAF. Winds this afternoon will be out of the southwest. These
will shift to more southerly tonight and decrease to around 5 knots.
For tomorrow will keep the forecast dry once again with winds
shifting back to southwesterly.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211706
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
106 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1120 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Isolated showers have begun to develop in southern Indiana and the
northern Bluegrass this morning. These have remained fairly weak
this morning as SPC mesoanalysis shows some capping over the area.
This should decrease over the next hour or two while instability
increases. Mesoscale models show most of the activity today from now
through mid to late afternoon. The best chance for any stronger
storms will be over the Bluegrass this afternoon. These should move
out by early evening with dry conditions through the remainder of
the evening. Went ahead and decreased pops late this afternoon and
this evening based on the current model trends. Otherwise, just
minor tweaks made to the grids.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

500mb ridging will continue over the Lower Mississippi Valley
through late Friday, with northwesterly 500mb flow just off to our
northeast across Ohio and central Indiana. Hot and humid conditions
will continue through Friday with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and
overnight lows only falling into the lower to mid 70s.

A disturbance currently analyzed over the Dakotas will round the top
of the ridge today and move southeast, crossing northern Illinois
late this afternoon or evening.

Current forecast soundings show elevated instability still present
over southern Illinois and Indiana attm. A small cluster of
thunderstorms currently entering southwestern Indiana should weaken
some as radar shows an outflow boundary moving ahead of the
strongest convection. Also, an analysis shows weaker instability
present near and east of Interstate 65. However, some of these
showers or thunderstorms may maintain enough integrity to bring rain
to portions of southern Indiana along the Ohio River west of
Louisville through the early morning hours.

This afternoon will become quite unstable, especially near a weak
elevated warm front forecast to stretch southeast across central
Indiana and southern Ohio. Scattered strong to possibly severe
storms are anticipated this afternoon, the bulk of which will stay
to our north and northeast closer to this boundary. Any afternoon or
evening storms that do move across southern Indiana or the northern
Bluegrass will produce gusty winds and localized very heavy
rainfall.

Scattered storms will diminish overnight, although residual
instability and humid conditions may some storms to persist through
the early morning hours. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are
likely to our north and east again Friday afternoon.

Highs today will range from the upper 80s across the northern
Bluegrass to the lower 90s near Bowling Green. After a muggy night,
highs Friday will generally rise a couple of degrees more.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

Heat and humidity still look on track as a strong ridge builds over
the Ohio Valley this weekend and stays anchored over the region
through the beginning of next week.  Models have backed off of the
h85 temps slightly...now 18-22 degrees C vs 20-24 degrees C in
previous runs.  However, high temperatures should still solidly
reach the 90-97 degree range Sat-Mon with locations along and west
of I-65 most likely to see highs in the mid to upper 90s.  With
dewpts expected to remain quite moist in the lower 70s, resultant
heat indices should top out in the upper 90s to low 100s each
afternoon Sat-Mon.  Taking into account a hot day in store for
Friday as well, a heat advisory may be needed mainly west of I-65
for this prolonged period of hot weather.  Will need to consider
that with today`s afternoon forecast package.  However, afternoon
showers/storms may keep things a bit cooler than forecast so will
need to take that into consideration as well.

As previous forecaster noted, the ridge will be a dirty ridge
allowing for convection to fire mainly at peak diurnal heating
during the afternoon and evening hours each day.  Mid range models
are keying in on a signal that would produce a good complex of
storms to our north late in the day Friday and dive into the Ohio
Valley Friday night into early Sat morning.  Will have the best
areal coverage and highest POPs (50%) in the long term period Fri
night/Sat.  Model soundings indicate that the greatest threat from
these storms would be heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.
However, isld small hail and strong winds may also occur.  Rounds of
isld-sct storms will be possible Sat-Tues during the
afternoon/evening hours with no organized severe threat anticipated
at this point.

By Wed an upper trough will attempt to break down the ridge over the
Midwest.  The strong ridge will be hard to break down however so
it`s not clear as to when significantly cooler temps and better
precip chances will arrive.  At the very least though, it should
provide cooler temps with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s for
the middle of next week.  Will keep low POPs 20-40% in the forecast
despite model timing and strength differences.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

High pressure aloft continue to build in across the region. This
will suppress thunderstorms keeping the TAF sites mostly sites dry
through the period. The only question will be LEX this afternoon
where an isolated shower or two could move over the airport.
However, chances are low so will likely leave precipitation out of
the TAF. Winds this afternoon will be out of the southwest. These
will shift to more southerly tonight and decrease to around 5 knots.
For tomorrow will keep the forecast dry once again with winds
shifting back to southwesterly.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211706
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
106 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1120 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Isolated showers have begun to develop in southern Indiana and the
northern Bluegrass this morning. These have remained fairly weak
this morning as SPC mesoanalysis shows some capping over the area.
This should decrease over the next hour or two while instability
increases. Mesoscale models show most of the activity today from now
through mid to late afternoon. The best chance for any stronger
storms will be over the Bluegrass this afternoon. These should move
out by early evening with dry conditions through the remainder of
the evening. Went ahead and decreased pops late this afternoon and
this evening based on the current model trends. Otherwise, just
minor tweaks made to the grids.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

500mb ridging will continue over the Lower Mississippi Valley
through late Friday, with northwesterly 500mb flow just off to our
northeast across Ohio and central Indiana. Hot and humid conditions
will continue through Friday with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and
overnight lows only falling into the lower to mid 70s.

A disturbance currently analyzed over the Dakotas will round the top
of the ridge today and move southeast, crossing northern Illinois
late this afternoon or evening.

Current forecast soundings show elevated instability still present
over southern Illinois and Indiana attm. A small cluster of
thunderstorms currently entering southwestern Indiana should weaken
some as radar shows an outflow boundary moving ahead of the
strongest convection. Also, an analysis shows weaker instability
present near and east of Interstate 65. However, some of these
showers or thunderstorms may maintain enough integrity to bring rain
to portions of southern Indiana along the Ohio River west of
Louisville through the early morning hours.

This afternoon will become quite unstable, especially near a weak
elevated warm front forecast to stretch southeast across central
Indiana and southern Ohio. Scattered strong to possibly severe
storms are anticipated this afternoon, the bulk of which will stay
to our north and northeast closer to this boundary. Any afternoon or
evening storms that do move across southern Indiana or the northern
Bluegrass will produce gusty winds and localized very heavy
rainfall.

Scattered storms will diminish overnight, although residual
instability and humid conditions may some storms to persist through
the early morning hours. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are
likely to our north and east again Friday afternoon.

Highs today will range from the upper 80s across the northern
Bluegrass to the lower 90s near Bowling Green. After a muggy night,
highs Friday will generally rise a couple of degrees more.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

Heat and humidity still look on track as a strong ridge builds over
the Ohio Valley this weekend and stays anchored over the region
through the beginning of next week.  Models have backed off of the
h85 temps slightly...now 18-22 degrees C vs 20-24 degrees C in
previous runs.  However, high temperatures should still solidly
reach the 90-97 degree range Sat-Mon with locations along and west
of I-65 most likely to see highs in the mid to upper 90s.  With
dewpts expected to remain quite moist in the lower 70s, resultant
heat indices should top out in the upper 90s to low 100s each
afternoon Sat-Mon.  Taking into account a hot day in store for
Friday as well, a heat advisory may be needed mainly west of I-65
for this prolonged period of hot weather.  Will need to consider
that with today`s afternoon forecast package.  However, afternoon
showers/storms may keep things a bit cooler than forecast so will
need to take that into consideration as well.

As previous forecaster noted, the ridge will be a dirty ridge
allowing for convection to fire mainly at peak diurnal heating
during the afternoon and evening hours each day.  Mid range models
are keying in on a signal that would produce a good complex of
storms to our north late in the day Friday and dive into the Ohio
Valley Friday night into early Sat morning.  Will have the best
areal coverage and highest POPs (50%) in the long term period Fri
night/Sat.  Model soundings indicate that the greatest threat from
these storms would be heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.
However, isld small hail and strong winds may also occur.  Rounds of
isld-sct storms will be possible Sat-Tues during the
afternoon/evening hours with no organized severe threat anticipated
at this point.

By Wed an upper trough will attempt to break down the ridge over the
Midwest.  The strong ridge will be hard to break down however so
it`s not clear as to when significantly cooler temps and better
precip chances will arrive.  At the very least though, it should
provide cooler temps with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s for
the middle of next week.  Will keep low POPs 20-40% in the forecast
despite model timing and strength differences.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

High pressure aloft continue to build in across the region. This
will suppress thunderstorms keeping the TAF sites mostly sites dry
through the period. The only question will be LEX this afternoon
where an isolated shower or two could move over the airport.
However, chances are low so will likely leave precipitation out of
the TAF. Winds this afternoon will be out of the southwest. These
will shift to more southerly tonight and decrease to around 5 knots.
For tomorrow will keep the forecast dry once again with winds
shifting back to southwesterly.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211522
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1122 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1120 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Isolated showers have begun to develop in southern Indiana and the
northern Bluegrass this morning. These have remained fairly weak
this morning as SPC mesoanalysis shows some capping over the area.
This should decrease over the next hour or two while instability
increases. Mesoscale models show most of the activity today from now
through mid to late afternoon. The best chance for any stronger
storms will be over the Bluegrass this afternoon. These should move
out by early evening with dry conditions through the remainder of
the evening. Went ahead and decreased pops late this afternoon and
this evening based on the current model trends. Otherwise, just
minor tweaks made to the grids.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

500mb ridging will continue over the Lower Mississippi Valley
through late Friday, with northwesterly 500mb flow just off to our
northeast across Ohio and central Indiana. Hot and humid conditions
will continue through Friday with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and
overnight lows only falling into the lower to mid 70s.

A disturbance currently analyzed over the Dakotas will round the top
of the ridge today and move southeast, crossing northern Illinois
late this afternoon or evening.

Current forecast soundings show elevated instability still present
over southern Illinois and Indiana attm. A small cluster of
thunderstorms currently entering southwestern Indiana should weaken
some as radar shows an outflow boundary moving ahead of the
strongest convection. Also, an analysis shows weaker instability
present near and east of Interstate 65. However, some of these
showers or thunderstorms may maintain enough integrity to bring rain
to portions of southern Indiana along the Ohio River west of
Louisville through the early morning hours.

This afternoon will become quite unstable, especially near a weak
elevated warm front forecast to stretch southeast across central
Indiana and southern Ohio. Scattered strong to possibly severe
storms are anticipated this afternoon, the bulk of which will stay
to our north and northeast closer to this boundary. Any afternoon or
evening storms that do move across southern Indiana or the northern
Bluegrass will produce gusty winds and localized very heavy
rainfall.

Scattered storms will diminish overnight, although residual
instability and humid conditions may some storms to persist through
the early morning hours. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are
likely to our north and east again Friday afternoon.

Highs today will range from the upper 80s across the northern
Bluegrass to the lower 90s near Bowling Green. After a muggy night,
highs Friday will generally rise a couple of degrees more.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

Heat and humidity still look on track as a strong ridge builds over
the Ohio Valley this weekend and stays anchored over the region
through the beginning of next week.  Models have backed off of the
h85 temps slightly...now 18-22 degrees C vs 20-24 degrees C in
previous runs.  However, high temperatures should still solidly
reach the 90-97 degree range Sat-Mon with locations along and west
of I-65 most likely to see highs in the mid to upper 90s.  With
dewpts expected to remain quite moist in the lower 70s, resultant
heat indices should top out in the upper 90s to low 100s each
afternoon Sat-Mon.  Taking into account a hot day in store for
Friday as well, a heat advisory may be needed mainly west of I-65
for this prolonged period of hot weather.  Will need to consider
that with today`s afternoon forecast package.  However, afternoon
showers/storms may keep things a bit cooler than forecast so will
need to take that into consideration as well.

As previous forecaster noted, the ridge will be a dirty ridge
allowing for convection to fire mainly at peak diurnal heating
during the afternoon and evening hours each day.  Mid range models
are keying in on a signal that would produce a good complex of
storms to our north late in the day Friday and dive into the Ohio
Valley Friday night into early Sat morning.  Will have the best
areal coverage and highest POPs (50%) in the long term period Fri
night/Sat.  Model soundings indicate that the greatest threat from
these storms would be heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.
However, isld small hail and strong winds may also occur.  Rounds of
isld-sct storms will be possible Sat-Tues during the
afternoon/evening hours with no organized severe threat anticipated
at this point.

By Wed an upper trough will attempt to break down the ridge over the
Midwest.  The strong ridge will be hard to break down however so
it`s not clear as to when significantly cooler temps and better
precip chances will arrive.  At the very least though, it should
provide cooler temps with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s for
the middle of next week.  Will keep low POPs 20-40% in the forecast
despite model timing and strength differences.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Warm humid weather with light southwest winds will continue today
and tonight. South southwest winds around 5 to 7kt this morning will
become southwesterly around 7 to 9kt this afternoon, before becoming
light southerly this evening through early Friday morning.

VFR flying conditions are anticipated outside of any isolated
thunderstorms that may affect SDF or LEX as early as the mid-morning
hours today. Coverage of any convection this afternoon will be
scattered and disorganized and difficult to time. Due to only
scattered POPs, will keep thunder out of the TAFs at this point.

Some light haze may affect the LEX and BWG terminals early Friday
morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211522
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1122 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1120 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Isolated showers have begun to develop in southern Indiana and the
northern Bluegrass this morning. These have remained fairly weak
this morning as SPC mesoanalysis shows some capping over the area.
This should decrease over the next hour or two while instability
increases. Mesoscale models show most of the activity today from now
through mid to late afternoon. The best chance for any stronger
storms will be over the Bluegrass this afternoon. These should move
out by early evening with dry conditions through the remainder of
the evening. Went ahead and decreased pops late this afternoon and
this evening based on the current model trends. Otherwise, just
minor tweaks made to the grids.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

500mb ridging will continue over the Lower Mississippi Valley
through late Friday, with northwesterly 500mb flow just off to our
northeast across Ohio and central Indiana. Hot and humid conditions
will continue through Friday with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and
overnight lows only falling into the lower to mid 70s.

A disturbance currently analyzed over the Dakotas will round the top
of the ridge today and move southeast, crossing northern Illinois
late this afternoon or evening.

Current forecast soundings show elevated instability still present
over southern Illinois and Indiana attm. A small cluster of
thunderstorms currently entering southwestern Indiana should weaken
some as radar shows an outflow boundary moving ahead of the
strongest convection. Also, an analysis shows weaker instability
present near and east of Interstate 65. However, some of these
showers or thunderstorms may maintain enough integrity to bring rain
to portions of southern Indiana along the Ohio River west of
Louisville through the early morning hours.

This afternoon will become quite unstable, especially near a weak
elevated warm front forecast to stretch southeast across central
Indiana and southern Ohio. Scattered strong to possibly severe
storms are anticipated this afternoon, the bulk of which will stay
to our north and northeast closer to this boundary. Any afternoon or
evening storms that do move across southern Indiana or the northern
Bluegrass will produce gusty winds and localized very heavy
rainfall.

Scattered storms will diminish overnight, although residual
instability and humid conditions may some storms to persist through
the early morning hours. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are
likely to our north and east again Friday afternoon.

Highs today will range from the upper 80s across the northern
Bluegrass to the lower 90s near Bowling Green. After a muggy night,
highs Friday will generally rise a couple of degrees more.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

Heat and humidity still look on track as a strong ridge builds over
the Ohio Valley this weekend and stays anchored over the region
through the beginning of next week.  Models have backed off of the
h85 temps slightly...now 18-22 degrees C vs 20-24 degrees C in
previous runs.  However, high temperatures should still solidly
reach the 90-97 degree range Sat-Mon with locations along and west
of I-65 most likely to see highs in the mid to upper 90s.  With
dewpts expected to remain quite moist in the lower 70s, resultant
heat indices should top out in the upper 90s to low 100s each
afternoon Sat-Mon.  Taking into account a hot day in store for
Friday as well, a heat advisory may be needed mainly west of I-65
for this prolonged period of hot weather.  Will need to consider
that with today`s afternoon forecast package.  However, afternoon
showers/storms may keep things a bit cooler than forecast so will
need to take that into consideration as well.

As previous forecaster noted, the ridge will be a dirty ridge
allowing for convection to fire mainly at peak diurnal heating
during the afternoon and evening hours each day.  Mid range models
are keying in on a signal that would produce a good complex of
storms to our north late in the day Friday and dive into the Ohio
Valley Friday night into early Sat morning.  Will have the best
areal coverage and highest POPs (50%) in the long term period Fri
night/Sat.  Model soundings indicate that the greatest threat from
these storms would be heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.
However, isld small hail and strong winds may also occur.  Rounds of
isld-sct storms will be possible Sat-Tues during the
afternoon/evening hours with no organized severe threat anticipated
at this point.

By Wed an upper trough will attempt to break down the ridge over the
Midwest.  The strong ridge will be hard to break down however so
it`s not clear as to when significantly cooler temps and better
precip chances will arrive.  At the very least though, it should
provide cooler temps with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s for
the middle of next week.  Will keep low POPs 20-40% in the forecast
despite model timing and strength differences.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Warm humid weather with light southwest winds will continue today
and tonight. South southwest winds around 5 to 7kt this morning will
become southwesterly around 7 to 9kt this afternoon, before becoming
light southerly this evening through early Friday morning.

VFR flying conditions are anticipated outside of any isolated
thunderstorms that may affect SDF or LEX as early as the mid-morning
hours today. Coverage of any convection this afternoon will be
scattered and disorganized and difficult to time. Due to only
scattered POPs, will keep thunder out of the TAFs at this point.

Some light haze may affect the LEX and BWG terminals early Friday
morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211040
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

500mb ridging will continue over the Lower Mississippi Valley
through late Friday, with northwesterly 500mb flow just off to our
northeast across Ohio and central Indiana. Hot and humid conditions
will continue through Friday with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and
overnight lows only falling into the lower to mid 70s.

A disturbance currently analyzed over the Dakotas will round the top
of the ridge today and move southeast, crossing northern Illinois
late this afternoon or evening.

Current forecast soundings show elevated instability still present
over southern Illinois and Indiana attm. A small cluster of
thunderstorms currently entering southwestern Indiana should weaken
some as radar shows an outflow boundary moving ahead of the
strongest convection. Also, an analysis shows weaker instability
present near and east of Interstate 65. However, some of these
showers or thunderstorms may maintain enough integrity to bring rain
to portions of southern Indiana along the Ohio River west of
Louisville through the early morning hours.

This afternoon will become quite unstable, especially near a weak
elevated warm front forecast to stretch southeast across central
Indiana and southern Ohio. Scattered strong to possibly severe
storms are anticipated this afternoon, the bulk of which will stay
to our north and northeast closer to this boundary. Any afternoon or
evening storms that do move across southern Indiana or the northern
Bluegrass will produce gusty winds and localized very heavy
rainfall.

Scattered storms will diminish overnight, although residual
instability and humid conditions may some storms to persist through
the early morning hours. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are
likely to our north and east again Friday afternoon.

Highs today will range from the upper 80s across the northern
Bluegrass to the lower 90s near Bowling Green. After a muggy night,
highs Friday will generally rise a couple of degrees more.


.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

Heat and humidity still look on track as a strong ridge builds over
the Ohio Valley this weekend and stays anchored over the region
through the beginning of next week.  Models have backed off of the
h85 temps slightly...now 18-22 degrees C vs 20-24 degrees C in
previous runs.  However, high temperatures should still solidly
reach the 90-97 degree range Sat-Mon with locations along and west
of I-65 most likely to see highs in the mid to upper 90s.  With
dewpts expected to remain quite moist in the lower 70s, resultant
heat indices should top out in the upper 90s to low 100s each
afternoon Sat-Mon.  Taking into account a hot day in store for
Friday as well, a heat advisory may be needed mainly west of I-65
for this prolonged period of hot weather.  Will need to consider
that with today`s afternoon forecast package.  However, afternoon
showers/storms may keep things a bit cooler than forecast so will
need to take that into consideration as well.

As previous forecaster noted, the ridge will be a dirty ridge
allowing for convection to fire mainly at peak diurnal heating
during the afternoon and evening hours each day.  Mid range models
are keying in on a signal that would produce a good complex of
storms to our north late in the day Friday and dive into the Ohio
Valley Friday night into early Sat morning.  Will have the best
areal coverage and highest POPs (50%) in the long term period Fri
night/Sat.  Model soundings indicate that the greatest threat from
these storms would be heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.
However, isld small hail and strong winds may also occur.  Rounds of
isld-sct storms will be possible Sat-Tues during the
afternoon/evening hours with no organized severe threat anticipated
at this point.

By Wed an upper trough will attempt to break down the ridge over the
Midwest.  The strong ridge will be hard to break down however so
it`s not clear as to when significantly cooler temps and better
precip chances will arrive.  At the very least though, it should
provide cooler temps with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s for
the middle of next week.  Will keep low POPs 20-40% in the forecast
despite model timing and strength differences.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Warm humid weather with light southwest winds will continue today
and tonight. South southwest winds around 5 to 7kt this morning will
become southwesterly around 7 to 9kt this afternoon, before becoming
light southerly this evening through early Friday morning.

VFR flying conditions are anticipated outside of any isolated
thunderstorms that may affect SDF or LEX as early as the mid-morning
hours today. Coverage of any convection this afternoon will be
scattered and disorganized and difficult to time. Due to only
scattered POPs, will keep thunder out of the TAFs at this point.

Some light haze may affect the LEX and BWG terminals early Friday
morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211040
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

500mb ridging will continue over the Lower Mississippi Valley
through late Friday, with northwesterly 500mb flow just off to our
northeast across Ohio and central Indiana. Hot and humid conditions
will continue through Friday with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and
overnight lows only falling into the lower to mid 70s.

A disturbance currently analyzed over the Dakotas will round the top
of the ridge today and move southeast, crossing northern Illinois
late this afternoon or evening.

Current forecast soundings show elevated instability still present
over southern Illinois and Indiana attm. A small cluster of
thunderstorms currently entering southwestern Indiana should weaken
some as radar shows an outflow boundary moving ahead of the
strongest convection. Also, an analysis shows weaker instability
present near and east of Interstate 65. However, some of these
showers or thunderstorms may maintain enough integrity to bring rain
to portions of southern Indiana along the Ohio River west of
Louisville through the early morning hours.

This afternoon will become quite unstable, especially near a weak
elevated warm front forecast to stretch southeast across central
Indiana and southern Ohio. Scattered strong to possibly severe
storms are anticipated this afternoon, the bulk of which will stay
to our north and northeast closer to this boundary. Any afternoon or
evening storms that do move across southern Indiana or the northern
Bluegrass will produce gusty winds and localized very heavy
rainfall.

Scattered storms will diminish overnight, although residual
instability and humid conditions may some storms to persist through
the early morning hours. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are
likely to our north and east again Friday afternoon.

Highs today will range from the upper 80s across the northern
Bluegrass to the lower 90s near Bowling Green. After a muggy night,
highs Friday will generally rise a couple of degrees more.


.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

Heat and humidity still look on track as a strong ridge builds over
the Ohio Valley this weekend and stays anchored over the region
through the beginning of next week.  Models have backed off of the
h85 temps slightly...now 18-22 degrees C vs 20-24 degrees C in
previous runs.  However, high temperatures should still solidly
reach the 90-97 degree range Sat-Mon with locations along and west
of I-65 most likely to see highs in the mid to upper 90s.  With
dewpts expected to remain quite moist in the lower 70s, resultant
heat indices should top out in the upper 90s to low 100s each
afternoon Sat-Mon.  Taking into account a hot day in store for
Friday as well, a heat advisory may be needed mainly west of I-65
for this prolonged period of hot weather.  Will need to consider
that with today`s afternoon forecast package.  However, afternoon
showers/storms may keep things a bit cooler than forecast so will
need to take that into consideration as well.

As previous forecaster noted, the ridge will be a dirty ridge
allowing for convection to fire mainly at peak diurnal heating
during the afternoon and evening hours each day.  Mid range models
are keying in on a signal that would produce a good complex of
storms to our north late in the day Friday and dive into the Ohio
Valley Friday night into early Sat morning.  Will have the best
areal coverage and highest POPs (50%) in the long term period Fri
night/Sat.  Model soundings indicate that the greatest threat from
these storms would be heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.
However, isld small hail and strong winds may also occur.  Rounds of
isld-sct storms will be possible Sat-Tues during the
afternoon/evening hours with no organized severe threat anticipated
at this point.

By Wed an upper trough will attempt to break down the ridge over the
Midwest.  The strong ridge will be hard to break down however so
it`s not clear as to when significantly cooler temps and better
precip chances will arrive.  At the very least though, it should
provide cooler temps with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s for
the middle of next week.  Will keep low POPs 20-40% in the forecast
despite model timing and strength differences.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Warm humid weather with light southwest winds will continue today
and tonight. South southwest winds around 5 to 7kt this morning will
become southwesterly around 7 to 9kt this afternoon, before becoming
light southerly this evening through early Friday morning.

VFR flying conditions are anticipated outside of any isolated
thunderstorms that may affect SDF or LEX as early as the mid-morning
hours today. Coverage of any convection this afternoon will be
scattered and disorganized and difficult to time. Due to only
scattered POPs, will keep thunder out of the TAFs at this point.

Some light haze may affect the LEX and BWG terminals early Friday
morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 210653
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
253 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

500mb ridging will continue over the Lower Mississippi Valley
through late Friday, with northwesterly 500mb flow just off to our
northeast across Ohio and central Indiana. Hot and humid conditions
will continue through Friday with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and
overnight lows only falling into the lower to mid 70s.

A disturbance currently analyzed over the Dakotas will round the top
of the ridge today and move southeast, crossing northern Illinois
late this afternoon or evening.

Current forecast soundings show elevated instability still present
over southern Illinois and Indiana attm. A small cluster of
thunderstorms currently entering southwestern Indiana should weaken
some as radar shows an outflow boundary moving ahead of the
strongest convection. Also, an analysis shows weaker instability
present near and east of Interstate 65. However, some of these
showers or thunderstorms may maintain enough integrity to bring rain
to portions of southern Indiana along the Ohio River west of
Louisville through the early morning hours.

This afternoon will become quite unstable, especially near a weak
elevated warm front forecast to stretch southeast across central
Indiana and southern Ohio. Scattered strong to possibly severe
storms are anticipated this afternoon, the bulk of which will stay
to our north and northeast closer to this boundary. Any afternoon or
evening storms that do move across southern Indiana or the northern
Bluegrass will produce gusty winds and localized very heavy
rainfall.

Scattered storms will diminish overnight, although residual
instability and humid conditions may some storms to persist through
the early morning hours. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are
likely to our north and east again Friday afternoon.

Highs today will range from the upper 80s across the northern
Bluegrass to the lower 90s near Bowling Green. After a muggy night,
highs Friday will generally rise a couple of degrees more.


.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

Heat and humidity still look on track as a strong ridge builds over
the Ohio Valley this weekend and stays anchored over the region
through the beginning of next week.  Models have backed off of the
h85 temps slightly...now 18-22 degrees C vs 20-24 degrees C in
previous runs.  However, high temperatures should still solidly
reach the 90-97 degree range Sat-Mon with locations along and west
of I-65 most likely to see highs in the mid to upper 90s.  With
dewpts expected to remain quite moist in the lower 70s, resultant
heat indices should top out in the upper 90s to low 100s each
afternoon Sat-Mon.  Taking into account a hot day in store for
Friday as well, a heat advisory may be needed mainly west of I-65
for this prolonged period of hot weather.  Will need to consider
that with today`s afternoon forecast package.  However, afternoon
showers/storms may keep things a bit cooler than forecast so will
need to take that into consideration as well.

As previous forecaster noted, the ridge will be a dirty ridge
allowing for convection to fire mainly at peak diurnal heating
during the afternoon and evening hours each day.  Mid range models
are keying in on a signal that would produce a good complex of
storms to our north late in the day Friday and dive into the Ohio
Valley Friday night into early Sat morning.  Will have the best
areal coverage and highest POPs (50%) in the long term period Fri
night/Sat.  Model soundings indicate that the greatest threat from
these storms would be heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.
However, isld small hail and strong winds may also occur.  Rounds of
isld-sct storms will be possible Sat-Tues during the
afternoon/evening hours with no organized severe threat anticipated
at this point.

By Wed an upper trough will attempt to break down the ridge over the
Midwest.  The strong ridge will be hard to break down however so
it`s not clear as to when significantly cooler temps and better
precip chances will arrive.  At the very least though, it should
provide cooler temps with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s for
the middle of next week.  Will keep low POPs 20-40% in the forecast
despite model timing and strength differences.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Warm humid weather with light southwest winds will continue today
and tonight. South southwest winds around 5 to 7kt this morning will
become southwesterly around 7 to 9kt this afternoon, before becoming
light southerly this evening through early Friday morning.

BWG had heavy rain earlier Wednesday afternoon and this may lead to
some fog during the pre-dawn hours. Currently, light southerly winds
has kept fog at bay. Think that is is more likely than not the
visibilities will only lower into the MVFR range at BWG this morning
if fog develops at all.

VFR flying conditions are anticipated outside of any scattered
thunderstorms that may affect SDF or LEX as early as the mid-morning
hours today. Coverage of any convection will be scattered and
disorganized and difficult to time. Due to only scattered POPs, will
keep thunder out of the TAFs at this point.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 210653
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
253 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

500mb ridging will continue over the Lower Mississippi Valley
through late Friday, with northwesterly 500mb flow just off to our
northeast across Ohio and central Indiana. Hot and humid conditions
will continue through Friday with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and
overnight lows only falling into the lower to mid 70s.

A disturbance currently analyzed over the Dakotas will round the top
of the ridge today and move southeast, crossing northern Illinois
late this afternoon or evening.

Current forecast soundings show elevated instability still present
over southern Illinois and Indiana attm. A small cluster of
thunderstorms currently entering southwestern Indiana should weaken
some as radar shows an outflow boundary moving ahead of the
strongest convection. Also, an analysis shows weaker instability
present near and east of Interstate 65. However, some of these
showers or thunderstorms may maintain enough integrity to bring rain
to portions of southern Indiana along the Ohio River west of
Louisville through the early morning hours.

This afternoon will become quite unstable, especially near a weak
elevated warm front forecast to stretch southeast across central
Indiana and southern Ohio. Scattered strong to possibly severe
storms are anticipated this afternoon, the bulk of which will stay
to our north and northeast closer to this boundary. Any afternoon or
evening storms that do move across southern Indiana or the northern
Bluegrass will produce gusty winds and localized very heavy
rainfall.

Scattered storms will diminish overnight, although residual
instability and humid conditions may some storms to persist through
the early morning hours. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are
likely to our north and east again Friday afternoon.

Highs today will range from the upper 80s across the northern
Bluegrass to the lower 90s near Bowling Green. After a muggy night,
highs Friday will generally rise a couple of degrees more.


.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

Heat and humidity still look on track as a strong ridge builds over
the Ohio Valley this weekend and stays anchored over the region
through the beginning of next week.  Models have backed off of the
h85 temps slightly...now 18-22 degrees C vs 20-24 degrees C in
previous runs.  However, high temperatures should still solidly
reach the 90-97 degree range Sat-Mon with locations along and west
of I-65 most likely to see highs in the mid to upper 90s.  With
dewpts expected to remain quite moist in the lower 70s, resultant
heat indices should top out in the upper 90s to low 100s each
afternoon Sat-Mon.  Taking into account a hot day in store for
Friday as well, a heat advisory may be needed mainly west of I-65
for this prolonged period of hot weather.  Will need to consider
that with today`s afternoon forecast package.  However, afternoon
showers/storms may keep things a bit cooler than forecast so will
need to take that into consideration as well.

As previous forecaster noted, the ridge will be a dirty ridge
allowing for convection to fire mainly at peak diurnal heating
during the afternoon and evening hours each day.  Mid range models
are keying in on a signal that would produce a good complex of
storms to our north late in the day Friday and dive into the Ohio
Valley Friday night into early Sat morning.  Will have the best
areal coverage and highest POPs (50%) in the long term period Fri
night/Sat.  Model soundings indicate that the greatest threat from
these storms would be heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.
However, isld small hail and strong winds may also occur.  Rounds of
isld-sct storms will be possible Sat-Tues during the
afternoon/evening hours with no organized severe threat anticipated
at this point.

By Wed an upper trough will attempt to break down the ridge over the
Midwest.  The strong ridge will be hard to break down however so
it`s not clear as to when significantly cooler temps and better
precip chances will arrive.  At the very least though, it should
provide cooler temps with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s for
the middle of next week.  Will keep low POPs 20-40% in the forecast
despite model timing and strength differences.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Warm humid weather with light southwest winds will continue today
and tonight. South southwest winds around 5 to 7kt this morning will
become southwesterly around 7 to 9kt this afternoon, before becoming
light southerly this evening through early Friday morning.

BWG had heavy rain earlier Wednesday afternoon and this may lead to
some fog during the pre-dawn hours. Currently, light southerly winds
has kept fog at bay. Think that is is more likely than not the
visibilities will only lower into the MVFR range at BWG this morning
if fog develops at all.

VFR flying conditions are anticipated outside of any scattered
thunderstorms that may affect SDF or LEX as early as the mid-morning
hours today. Coverage of any convection will be scattered and
disorganized and difficult to time. Due to only scattered POPs, will
keep thunder out of the TAFs at this point.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210505
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s is making for an uncomfortable afternoon, with a few
storms starting to pop up. Deck of high clouds streaming in from the
northwest has helped to hold off significant development across most
of our region to this point. Have a thunderstorm complex developing
in the unstable airmass over north central TN, and this complex may
force some new storms to develop along an outflow boundary in
southern KY. A few storms also are forming along the corridor from
Hancock county to Casey county in KY, with even more storms east of
the complex over south central IN.

Best instability and moisture still resides over southern KY, so
will keep most focus for severe weather down there the next few
hours, with a secondary focus over our southeastern counties. For
this evening, should continue to see scattered development away from
these focus areas, with the northeast forecast area having the best
chance to continue with storms after midnight. This region will
continue to be the focus for development the next few periods, as a
ridge aloft should help dry out our southwest forecast area Thursday
and Thursday night.

That ridge will provide hotter temperatures in our southwest as
well, with highs Thursday likely reaching the mid 90s. Heat indices
could top out around 100. Given potential for some cloud cover have
not gone into the next category, 100-105, for heat indices there.
Think we can hold off on our more prolonged period of near heat
advisory criteria until Friday, read on in the discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Friday - Monday...

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

An upper ridge will be in place through this weekend and into next
week, keeping hot and muggy conditions in place. Upper ridge looks
"dirty" with very little in the way of a subsidence inversion
normally seen with this type of environment. Therefore, can`t do
away with storm chances each afternoon and evening. Models are
generally all over the place with expected precipitation fields each
day, despite the fairly good agreement in the overall pattern.
Therefore will just keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast pretty much every day and evening.

As far as temperatures go, highs look to top out in the low and mid
90s each day Friday through Monday as a core of H85 temps between
20 to 23C settle over the area. Some spots could touch the upper 90s
in our western Kentucky counties. Heat indices will be a bit of a
concern during this time period as the hot temperatures will combine
with dew points in the low and even mid 70s. Highest heat indices
each afternoon could top out in the 100-105 range, so forecast needs
to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory due to a prolonged
period of days where heat indices approach criteria (105F). This
advisory would come with a later forecast issuance. One factor that
could limit temperatures and associated heat indices could be the
afternoon/evening convection.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as some
degree of troughing over the western CONUS tries push the upper
ridge axis east. Should this scenario play out, it would bring
better chances for storms to our western CWA, along with
temperatures not as hot. As a result, will go with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Warm humid weather with light southwest winds will continue today
and tonight. South southwest winds around 5 to 7kt this morning will
become southwesterly around 7 to 9kt this afternoon, before becoming
light southerly this evening through early Friday morning.

BWG had heavy rain earlier Wednesday afternoon and this may lead to
some fog during the pre-dawn hours. Currently, light southerly winds
has kept fog at bay. Think that is is more likely than not the
visibilities will only lower into the MVFR range at BWG this morning
if fog develops at all.

VFR flying conditions are anticipated outside of any scattered
thunderstorms that may affect SDF or LEX as early as the mid-morning
hours today. Coverage of any convection will be scattered and
disorganized and difficult to time. Due to only scattered POPs, will
keep thunder out of the TAFs at this point.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 210505
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s is making for an uncomfortable afternoon, with a few
storms starting to pop up. Deck of high clouds streaming in from the
northwest has helped to hold off significant development across most
of our region to this point. Have a thunderstorm complex developing
in the unstable airmass over north central TN, and this complex may
force some new storms to develop along an outflow boundary in
southern KY. A few storms also are forming along the corridor from
Hancock county to Casey county in KY, with even more storms east of
the complex over south central IN.

Best instability and moisture still resides over southern KY, so
will keep most focus for severe weather down there the next few
hours, with a secondary focus over our southeastern counties. For
this evening, should continue to see scattered development away from
these focus areas, with the northeast forecast area having the best
chance to continue with storms after midnight. This region will
continue to be the focus for development the next few periods, as a
ridge aloft should help dry out our southwest forecast area Thursday
and Thursday night.

That ridge will provide hotter temperatures in our southwest as
well, with highs Thursday likely reaching the mid 90s. Heat indices
could top out around 100. Given potential for some cloud cover have
not gone into the next category, 100-105, for heat indices there.
Think we can hold off on our more prolonged period of near heat
advisory criteria until Friday, read on in the discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Friday - Monday...

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

An upper ridge will be in place through this weekend and into next
week, keeping hot and muggy conditions in place. Upper ridge looks
"dirty" with very little in the way of a subsidence inversion
normally seen with this type of environment. Therefore, can`t do
away with storm chances each afternoon and evening. Models are
generally all over the place with expected precipitation fields each
day, despite the fairly good agreement in the overall pattern.
Therefore will just keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast pretty much every day and evening.

As far as temperatures go, highs look to top out in the low and mid
90s each day Friday through Monday as a core of H85 temps between
20 to 23C settle over the area. Some spots could touch the upper 90s
in our western Kentucky counties. Heat indices will be a bit of a
concern during this time period as the hot temperatures will combine
with dew points in the low and even mid 70s. Highest heat indices
each afternoon could top out in the 100-105 range, so forecast needs
to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory due to a prolonged
period of days where heat indices approach criteria (105F). This
advisory would come with a later forecast issuance. One factor that
could limit temperatures and associated heat indices could be the
afternoon/evening convection.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as some
degree of troughing over the western CONUS tries push the upper
ridge axis east. Should this scenario play out, it would bring
better chances for storms to our western CWA, along with
temperatures not as hot. As a result, will go with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Warm humid weather with light southwest winds will continue today
and tonight. South southwest winds around 5 to 7kt this morning will
become southwesterly around 7 to 9kt this afternoon, before becoming
light southerly this evening through early Friday morning.

BWG had heavy rain earlier Wednesday afternoon and this may lead to
some fog during the pre-dawn hours. Currently, light southerly winds
has kept fog at bay. Think that is is more likely than not the
visibilities will only lower into the MVFR range at BWG this morning
if fog develops at all.

VFR flying conditions are anticipated outside of any scattered
thunderstorms that may affect SDF or LEX as early as the mid-morning
hours today. Coverage of any convection will be scattered and
disorganized and difficult to time. Due to only scattered POPs, will
keep thunder out of the TAFs at this point.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210222
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1022 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1015 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Warm and moist air mass remains in place over the Ohio Valley, and
has had some opportunity to recover after the earlier convection.
Cluster of T-storms near STL is pushing east into Illinois, and if
it holds together it could reach Dubois County by 06-07Z. Current
forecast seems fairly well on track with increasing POPs from
southern Indiana across to the Bluegrass as we head toward daybreak
Thursday.

Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Strong to severe storms have pushed across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, with just a few cells now lingering along the
KY/TN border. The watch box has been cleared except for just a few
counties along the Tennessee line, and that should be cleared in
another hour or so as the storms exit.

Subsident regime in the wake of these storms will keep
us dry through the next few hours. Next wave upstream in the NW flow
is still poised to trigger another round of isolated/scattered
T-storms after midnight.

Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Complex over southern Indiana along with another over central TN
both are taking advantage of an unstable atmosphere across the
region to force scattered thunderstorms to develop. Given the
instability from SPC mesoanalysis, 4000 J/kg, as well as potential
for wet microbursts across parts of our region, went with Severe
Thunderstorm Watch box south of I-64 and roughly along and east of
I-65.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s is making for an uncomfortable afternoon, with a few
storms starting to pop up. Deck of high clouds streaming in from the
northwest has helped to hold off significant development across most
of our region to this point. Have a thunderstorm complex developing
in the unstable airmass over north central TN, and this complex may
force some new storms to develop along an outflow boundary in
southern KY. A few storms also are forming along the corridor from
Hancock county to Casey county in KY, with even more storms east of
the complex over south central IN.

Best instability and moisture still resides over southern KY, so
will keep most focus for severe weather down there the next few
hours, with a secondary focus over our southeastern counties. For
this evening, should continue to see scattered development away from
these focus areas, with the northeast forecast area having the best
chance to continue with storms after midnight. This region will
continue to be the focus for development the next few periods, as a
ridge aloft should help dry out our southwest forecast area Thursday
and Thursday night.

That ridge will provide hotter temperatures in our southwest as
well, with highs Thursday likely reaching the mid 90s. Heat indices
could top out around 100. Given potential for some cloud cover have
not gone into the next category, 100-105, for heat indices there.
Think we can hold off on our more prolonged period of near heat
advisory criteria until Friday, read on in the discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Friday - Monday...

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

An upper ridge will be in place through this weekend and into next
week, keeping hot and muggy conditions in place. Upper ridge looks
"dirty" with very little in the way of a subsidence inversion
normally seen with this type of environment. Therefore, can`t do
away with storm chances each afternoon and evening. Models are
generally all over the place with expected precipitation fields each
day, despite the fairly good agreement in the overall pattern.
Therefore will just keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast pretty much every day and evening.

As far as temperatures go, highs look to top out in the low and mid
90s each day Friday through Monday as a core of H85 temps between
20 to 23C settle over the area. Some spots could touch the upper 90s
in our western Kentucky counties. Heat indices will be a bit of a
concern during this time period as the hot temperatures will combine
with dew points in the low and even mid 70s. Highest heat indices
each afternoon could top out in the 100-105 range, so forecast needs
to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory due to a prolonged
period of days where heat indices approach criteria (105F). This
advisory would come with a later forecast issuance. One factor that
could limit temperatures and associated heat indices could be the
afternoon/evening convection.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as some
degree of troughing over the western CONUS tries push the upper
ridge axis east. Should this scenario play out, it would bring
better chances for storms to our western CWA, along with
temperatures not as hot. As a result, will go with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Late afternoon convection has worked over the environment and left a
subsident regime in its wake, so expect VFR conditions and light
winds through much of the night. Main challenge will be
visibilities, especially in BWG where nearly 2 inches of rain fell
this afternoon. Models have not had a chance to bake this into their
initialization, so will just take the best shot at it. Will carry
prevailing MVFR with a TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak.
Will also go with MVFR visibilities at LEX, but can`t rule out brief
IFR conditions given the earlier rain there.

Convective forecast confidence remains limited, as the models still
don`t have a great handle on ongoing activity. We are seeing some
developing storms over east-central Missouri, as well as in western
Kentucky, and either of those clusters could round the top of the
weak upper ridge, and affect central Kentucky well after midnight.
However, with low POPs at the TAF sites, will leave it out at this
time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210222
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1022 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1015 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Warm and moist air mass remains in place over the Ohio Valley, and
has had some opportunity to recover after the earlier convection.
Cluster of T-storms near STL is pushing east into Illinois, and if
it holds together it could reach Dubois County by 06-07Z. Current
forecast seems fairly well on track with increasing POPs from
southern Indiana across to the Bluegrass as we head toward daybreak
Thursday.

Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Strong to severe storms have pushed across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, with just a few cells now lingering along the
KY/TN border. The watch box has been cleared except for just a few
counties along the Tennessee line, and that should be cleared in
another hour or so as the storms exit.

Subsident regime in the wake of these storms will keep
us dry through the next few hours. Next wave upstream in the NW flow
is still poised to trigger another round of isolated/scattered
T-storms after midnight.

Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Complex over southern Indiana along with another over central TN
both are taking advantage of an unstable atmosphere across the
region to force scattered thunderstorms to develop. Given the
instability from SPC mesoanalysis, 4000 J/kg, as well as potential
for wet microbursts across parts of our region, went with Severe
Thunderstorm Watch box south of I-64 and roughly along and east of
I-65.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s is making for an uncomfortable afternoon, with a few
storms starting to pop up. Deck of high clouds streaming in from the
northwest has helped to hold off significant development across most
of our region to this point. Have a thunderstorm complex developing
in the unstable airmass over north central TN, and this complex may
force some new storms to develop along an outflow boundary in
southern KY. A few storms also are forming along the corridor from
Hancock county to Casey county in KY, with even more storms east of
the complex over south central IN.

Best instability and moisture still resides over southern KY, so
will keep most focus for severe weather down there the next few
hours, with a secondary focus over our southeastern counties. For
this evening, should continue to see scattered development away from
these focus areas, with the northeast forecast area having the best
chance to continue with storms after midnight. This region will
continue to be the focus for development the next few periods, as a
ridge aloft should help dry out our southwest forecast area Thursday
and Thursday night.

That ridge will provide hotter temperatures in our southwest as
well, with highs Thursday likely reaching the mid 90s. Heat indices
could top out around 100. Given potential for some cloud cover have
not gone into the next category, 100-105, for heat indices there.
Think we can hold off on our more prolonged period of near heat
advisory criteria until Friday, read on in the discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Friday - Monday...

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

An upper ridge will be in place through this weekend and into next
week, keeping hot and muggy conditions in place. Upper ridge looks
"dirty" with very little in the way of a subsidence inversion
normally seen with this type of environment. Therefore, can`t do
away with storm chances each afternoon and evening. Models are
generally all over the place with expected precipitation fields each
day, despite the fairly good agreement in the overall pattern.
Therefore will just keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast pretty much every day and evening.

As far as temperatures go, highs look to top out in the low and mid
90s each day Friday through Monday as a core of H85 temps between
20 to 23C settle over the area. Some spots could touch the upper 90s
in our western Kentucky counties. Heat indices will be a bit of a
concern during this time period as the hot temperatures will combine
with dew points in the low and even mid 70s. Highest heat indices
each afternoon could top out in the 100-105 range, so forecast needs
to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory due to a prolonged
period of days where heat indices approach criteria (105F). This
advisory would come with a later forecast issuance. One factor that
could limit temperatures and associated heat indices could be the
afternoon/evening convection.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as some
degree of troughing over the western CONUS tries push the upper
ridge axis east. Should this scenario play out, it would bring
better chances for storms to our western CWA, along with
temperatures not as hot. As a result, will go with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Late afternoon convection has worked over the environment and left a
subsident regime in its wake, so expect VFR conditions and light
winds through much of the night. Main challenge will be
visibilities, especially in BWG where nearly 2 inches of rain fell
this afternoon. Models have not had a chance to bake this into their
initialization, so will just take the best shot at it. Will carry
prevailing MVFR with a TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak.
Will also go with MVFR visibilities at LEX, but can`t rule out brief
IFR conditions given the earlier rain there.

Convective forecast confidence remains limited, as the models still
don`t have a great handle on ongoing activity. We are seeing some
developing storms over east-central Missouri, as well as in western
Kentucky, and either of those clusters could round the top of the
weak upper ridge, and affect central Kentucky well after midnight.
However, with low POPs at the TAF sites, will leave it out at this
time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 202346
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
746 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Strong to severe storms have pushed across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, with just a few cells now lingering along the
KY/TN border. The watch box has been cleared except for just a few
counties along the Tennessee line, and that should be cleared in
another hour or so as the storms exit.

Subsident regime in the wake of these storms will keep
us dry through the next few hours. Next wave upstream in the NW flow
is still poised to trigger another round of isolated/scattered
T-storms after midnight.

Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Complex over southern Indiana along with another over central TN
both are taking advantage of an unstable atmosphere across the
region to force scattered thunderstorms to develop. Given the
instability from SPC mesoanalysis, 4000 J/kg, as well as potential
for wet microbursts across parts of our region, went with Severe
Thunderstorm Watch box south of I-64 and roughly along and east of
I-65.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s is making for an uncomfortable afternoon, with a few
storms starting to pop up. Deck of high clouds streaming in from the
northwest has helped to hold off significant development across most
of our region to this point. Have a thunderstorm complex developing
in the unstable airmass over north central TN, and this complex may
force some new storms to develop along an outflow boundary in
southern KY. A few storms also are forming along the corridor from
Hancock county to Casey county in KY, with even more storms east of
the complex over south central IN.

Best instability and moisture still resides over southern KY, so
will keep most focus for severe weather down there the next few
hours, with a secondary focus over our southeastern counties. For
this evening, should continue to see scattered development away from
these focus areas, with the northeast forecast area having the best
chance to continue with storms after midnight. This region will
continue to be the focus for development the next few periods, as a
ridge aloft should help dry out our southwest forecast area Thursday
and Thursday night.

That ridge will provide hotter temperatures in our southwest as
well, with highs Thursday likely reaching the mid 90s. Heat indices
could top out around 100. Given potential for some cloud cover have
not gone into the next category, 100-105, for heat indices there.
Think we can hold off on our more prolonged period of near heat
advisory criteria until Friday, read on in the discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Friday - Monday...

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

An upper ridge will be in place through this weekend and into next
week, keeping hot and muggy conditions in place. Upper ridge looks
"dirty" with very little in the way of a subsidence inversion
normally seen with this type of environment. Therefore, can`t do
away with storm chances each afternoon and evening. Models are
generally all over the place with expected precipitation fields each
day, despite the fairly good agreement in the overall pattern.
Therefore will just keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast pretty much every day and evening.

As far as temperatures go, highs look to top out in the low and mid
90s each day Friday through Monday as a core of H85 temps between
20 to 23C settle over the area. Some spots could touch the upper 90s
in our western Kentucky counties. Heat indices will be a bit of a
concern during this time period as the hot temperatures will combine
with dew points in the low and even mid 70s. Highest heat indices
each afternoon could top out in the 100-105 range, so forecast needs
to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory due to a prolonged
period of days where heat indices approach criteria (105F). This
advisory would come with a later forecast issuance. One factor that
could limit temperatures and associated heat indices could be the
afternoon/evening convection.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as some
degree of troughing over the western CONUS tries push the upper
ridge axis east. Should this scenario play out, it would bring
better chances for storms to our western CWA, along with
temperatures not as hot. As a result, will go with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Late afternoon convection has worked over the environment and left a
subsident regime in its wake, so expect VFR conditions and light
winds through much of the night. Main challenge will be
visibilities, especially in BWG where nearly 2 inches of rain fell
this afternoon. Models have not had a chance to bake this into their
initialization, so will just take the best shot at it. Will carry
prevailing MVFR with a TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak.
Will also go with MVFR visibilities at LEX, but can`t rule out brief
IFR conditions given the earlier rain there.

Convective forecast confidence remains limited, as the models still
don`t have a great handle on ongoing activity. We are seeing some
developing storms over east-central Missouri, as well as in western
Kentucky, and either of those clusters could round the top of the
weak upper ridge, and affect central Kentucky well after midnight.
However, with low POPs at the TAF sites, will leave it out at this
time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 202346
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
746 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Strong to severe storms have pushed across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, with just a few cells now lingering along the
KY/TN border. The watch box has been cleared except for just a few
counties along the Tennessee line, and that should be cleared in
another hour or so as the storms exit.

Subsident regime in the wake of these storms will keep
us dry through the next few hours. Next wave upstream in the NW flow
is still poised to trigger another round of isolated/scattered
T-storms after midnight.

Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Complex over southern Indiana along with another over central TN
both are taking advantage of an unstable atmosphere across the
region to force scattered thunderstorms to develop. Given the
instability from SPC mesoanalysis, 4000 J/kg, as well as potential
for wet microbursts across parts of our region, went with Severe
Thunderstorm Watch box south of I-64 and roughly along and east of
I-65.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s is making for an uncomfortable afternoon, with a few
storms starting to pop up. Deck of high clouds streaming in from the
northwest has helped to hold off significant development across most
of our region to this point. Have a thunderstorm complex developing
in the unstable airmass over north central TN, and this complex may
force some new storms to develop along an outflow boundary in
southern KY. A few storms also are forming along the corridor from
Hancock county to Casey county in KY, with even more storms east of
the complex over south central IN.

Best instability and moisture still resides over southern KY, so
will keep most focus for severe weather down there the next few
hours, with a secondary focus over our southeastern counties. For
this evening, should continue to see scattered development away from
these focus areas, with the northeast forecast area having the best
chance to continue with storms after midnight. This region will
continue to be the focus for development the next few periods, as a
ridge aloft should help dry out our southwest forecast area Thursday
and Thursday night.

That ridge will provide hotter temperatures in our southwest as
well, with highs Thursday likely reaching the mid 90s. Heat indices
could top out around 100. Given potential for some cloud cover have
not gone into the next category, 100-105, for heat indices there.
Think we can hold off on our more prolonged period of near heat
advisory criteria until Friday, read on in the discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Friday - Monday...

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

An upper ridge will be in place through this weekend and into next
week, keeping hot and muggy conditions in place. Upper ridge looks
"dirty" with very little in the way of a subsidence inversion
normally seen with this type of environment. Therefore, can`t do
away with storm chances each afternoon and evening. Models are
generally all over the place with expected precipitation fields each
day, despite the fairly good agreement in the overall pattern.
Therefore will just keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast pretty much every day and evening.

As far as temperatures go, highs look to top out in the low and mid
90s each day Friday through Monday as a core of H85 temps between
20 to 23C settle over the area. Some spots could touch the upper 90s
in our western Kentucky counties. Heat indices will be a bit of a
concern during this time period as the hot temperatures will combine
with dew points in the low and even mid 70s. Highest heat indices
each afternoon could top out in the 100-105 range, so forecast needs
to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory due to a prolonged
period of days where heat indices approach criteria (105F). This
advisory would come with a later forecast issuance. One factor that
could limit temperatures and associated heat indices could be the
afternoon/evening convection.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as some
degree of troughing over the western CONUS tries push the upper
ridge axis east. Should this scenario play out, it would bring
better chances for storms to our western CWA, along with
temperatures not as hot. As a result, will go with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Late afternoon convection has worked over the environment and left a
subsident regime in its wake, so expect VFR conditions and light
winds through much of the night. Main challenge will be
visibilities, especially in BWG where nearly 2 inches of rain fell
this afternoon. Models have not had a chance to bake this into their
initialization, so will just take the best shot at it. Will carry
prevailing MVFR with a TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak.
Will also go with MVFR visibilities at LEX, but can`t rule out brief
IFR conditions given the earlier rain there.

Convective forecast confidence remains limited, as the models still
don`t have a great handle on ongoing activity. We are seeing some
developing storms over east-central Missouri, as well as in western
Kentucky, and either of those clusters could round the top of the
weak upper ridge, and affect central Kentucky well after midnight.
However, with low POPs at the TAF sites, will leave it out at this
time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 202303
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
703 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Strong to severe storms have pushed across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, with just a few cells now lingering along the
KY/TN border. The watch box has been cleared except for just a few
counties along the Tennessee line, and that should be cleared in
another hour or so as the storms exit.

Subsident regime in the wake of these storms will keep
us dry through the next few hours. Next wave upstream in the NW flow
is still poised to trigger another round of isolated/scattered
T-storms after midnight.

Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Complex over southern Indiana along with another over central TN
both are taking advantage of an unstable atmosphere across the
region to force scattered thunderstorms to develop. Given the
instability from SPC mesoanalysis, 4000 J/kg, as well as potential
for wet microbursts across parts of our region, went with Severe
Thunderstorm Watch box south of I-64 and roughly along and east of
I-65.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s is making for an uncomfortable afternoon, with a few
storms starting to pop up. Deck of high clouds streaming in from the
northwest has helped to hold off significant development across most
of our region to this point. Have a thunderstorm complex developing
in the unstable airmass over north central TN, and this complex may
force some new storms to develop along an outflow boundary in
southern KY. A few storms also are forming along the corridor from
Hancock county to Casey county in KY, with even more storms east of
the complex over south central IN.

Best instability and moisture still resides over southern KY, so
will keep most focus for severe weather down there the next few
hours, with a secondary focus over our southeastern counties. For
this evening, should continue to see scattered development away from
these focus areas, with the northeast forecast area having the best
chance to continue with storms after midnight. This region will
continue to be the focus for development the next few periods, as a
ridge aloft should help dry out our southwest forecast area Thursday
and Thursday night.

That ridge will provide hotter temperatures in our southwest as
well, with highs Thursday likely reaching the mid 90s. Heat indices
could top out around 100. Given potential for some cloud cover have
not gone into the next category, 100-105, for heat indices there.
Think we can hold off on our more prolonged period of near heat
advisory criteria until Friday, read on in the discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Friday - Monday...

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

An upper ridge will be in place through this weekend and into next
week, keeping hot and muggy conditions in place. Upper ridge looks
"dirty" with very little in the way of a subsidence inversion
normally seen with this type of environment. Therefore, can`t do
away with storm chances each afternoon and evening. Models are
generally all over the place with expected precipitation fields each
day, despite the fairly good agreement in the overall pattern.
Therefore will just keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast pretty much every day and evening.

As far as temperatures go, highs look to top out in the low and mid
90s each day Friday through Monday as a core of H85 temps between
20 to 23C settle over the area. Some spots could touch the upper 90s
in our western Kentucky counties. Heat indices will be a bit of a
concern during this time period as the hot temperatures will combine
with dew points in the low and even mid 70s. Highest heat indices
each afternoon could top out in the 100-105 range, so forecast needs
to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory due to a prolonged
period of days where heat indices approach criteria (105F). This
advisory would come with a later forecast issuance. One factor that
could limit temperatures and associated heat indices could be the
afternoon/evening convection.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as some
degree of troughing over the western CONUS tries push the upper
ridge axis east. Should this scenario play out, it would bring
better chances for storms to our western CWA, along with
temperatures not as hot. As a result, will go with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Confidence in convective forecast this period is low, as cirrus
shield from storms to our northwest quickly moves into the region.
Have some cumulus developing over the central forecast area this
hour, and SPC mesoanalysis indicates plenty of instability across
the region. However, the cirrus canopy should provide some
subsidence to inhibit convection. There is still a possibility that
the storms to our northwest can remain organized enough to bring
those storms to the terminals later this afternoon. Thus have gone
with vicinity storms over a larger period of time and will update as
the afternoon progresses. May even get into another round of precip
later tonight, as additional disturbances move in from the
northwest, but a lot will depend on what happens this afternoon. Fog
forecast for Thursday morning will depend on that as well. Given
very high dewpoints across BWG this hour, have enough confidence to
go with a period of MVFR conditions, as in current guidance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS/RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 202034
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
434 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Complex over southern Indiana along with another over central TN
both are taking advantage of an unstable atmosphere across the
region to force scattered thunderstorms to develop. Given the
instability from SPC mesoanalysis, 4000 J/kg, as well as potential
for wet microbursts across parts of our region, went with Severe
Thunderstorm Watch box south of I-64 and roughly along and east of
I-65.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s is making for an uncomfortable afternoon, with a few
storms starting to pop up. Deck of high clouds streaming in from the
northwest has helped to hold off significant development across most
of our region to this point. Have a thunderstorm complex developing
in the unstable airmass over north central TN, and this complex may
force some new storms to develop along an outflow boundary in
southern KY. A few storms also are forming along the corridor from
Hancock county to Casey county in KY, with even more storms east of
the complex over south central IN.

Best instability and moisture still resides over southern KY, so
will keep most focus for severe weather down there the next few
hours, with a secondary focus over our southeastern counties. For
this evening, should continue to see scattered development away from
these focus areas, with the northeast forecast area having the best
chance to continue with storms after midnight. This region will
continue to be the focus for development the next few periods, as a
ridge aloft should help dry out our southwest forecast area Thursday
and Thursday night.

That ridge will provide hotter temperatures in our southwest as
well, with highs Thursday likely reaching the mid 90s. Heat indices
could top out around 100. Given potential for some cloud cover have
not gone into the next category, 100-105, for heat indices there.
Think we can hold off on our more prolonged period of near heat
advisory criteria until Friday, read on in the discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Friday - Monday...

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

An upper ridge will be in place through this weekend and into next
week, keeping hot and muggy conditions in place. Upper ridge looks
"dirty" with very little in the way of a subsidence inversion
normally seen with this type of environment. Therefore, can`t do
away with storm chances each afternoon and evening. Models are
generally all over the place with expected precipitation fields each
day, despite the fairly good agreement in the overall pattern.
Therefore will just keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast pretty much every day and evening.

As far as temperatures go, highs look to top out in the low and mid
90s each day Friday through Monday as a core of H85 temps between
20 to 23C settle over the area. Some spots could touch the upper 90s
in our western Kentucky counties. Heat indices will be a bit of a
concern during this time period as the hot temperatures will combine
with dew points in the low and even mid 70s. Highest heat indices
each afternoon could top out in the 100-105 range, so forecast needs
to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory due to a prolonged
period of days where heat indices approach criteria (105F). This
advisory would come with a later forecast issuance. One factor that
could limit temperatures and associated heat indices could be the
afternoon/evening convection.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as some
degree of troughing over the western CONUS tries push the upper
ridge axis east. Should this scenario play out, it would bring
better chances for storms to our western CWA, along with
temperatures not as hot. As a result, will go with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Confidence in convective forecast this period is low, as cirrus
shield from storms to our northwest quickly moves into the region.
Have some cumulus developing over the central forecast area this
hour, and SPC mesoanalysis indicates plenty of instability across
the region. However, the cirrus canopy should provide some
subsidence to inhibit convection. There is still a possibility that
the storms to our northwest can remain organized enough to bring
those storms to the terminals later this afternoon. Thus have gone
with vicinity storms over a larger period of time and will update as
the afternoon progresses. May even get into another round of precip
later tonight, as additional disturbances move in from the
northwest, but a lot will depend on what happens this afternoon. Fog
forecast for Thursday morning will depend on that as well. Given
very high dewpoints across BWG this hour, have enough confidence to
go with a period of MVFR conditions, as in current guidance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 202034
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
434 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Complex over southern Indiana along with another over central TN
both are taking advantage of an unstable atmosphere across the
region to force scattered thunderstorms to develop. Given the
instability from SPC mesoanalysis, 4000 J/kg, as well as potential
for wet microbursts across parts of our region, went with Severe
Thunderstorm Watch box south of I-64 and roughly along and east of
I-65.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s is making for an uncomfortable afternoon, with a few
storms starting to pop up. Deck of high clouds streaming in from the
northwest has helped to hold off significant development across most
of our region to this point. Have a thunderstorm complex developing
in the unstable airmass over north central TN, and this complex may
force some new storms to develop along an outflow boundary in
southern KY. A few storms also are forming along the corridor from
Hancock county to Casey county in KY, with even more storms east of
the complex over south central IN.

Best instability and moisture still resides over southern KY, so
will keep most focus for severe weather down there the next few
hours, with a secondary focus over our southeastern counties. For
this evening, should continue to see scattered development away from
these focus areas, with the northeast forecast area having the best
chance to continue with storms after midnight. This region will
continue to be the focus for development the next few periods, as a
ridge aloft should help dry out our southwest forecast area Thursday
and Thursday night.

That ridge will provide hotter temperatures in our southwest as
well, with highs Thursday likely reaching the mid 90s. Heat indices
could top out around 100. Given potential for some cloud cover have
not gone into the next category, 100-105, for heat indices there.
Think we can hold off on our more prolonged period of near heat
advisory criteria until Friday, read on in the discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Friday - Monday...

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

An upper ridge will be in place through this weekend and into next
week, keeping hot and muggy conditions in place. Upper ridge looks
"dirty" with very little in the way of a subsidence inversion
normally seen with this type of environment. Therefore, can`t do
away with storm chances each afternoon and evening. Models are
generally all over the place with expected precipitation fields each
day, despite the fairly good agreement in the overall pattern.
Therefore will just keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast pretty much every day and evening.

As far as temperatures go, highs look to top out in the low and mid
90s each day Friday through Monday as a core of H85 temps between
20 to 23C settle over the area. Some spots could touch the upper 90s
in our western Kentucky counties. Heat indices will be a bit of a
concern during this time period as the hot temperatures will combine
with dew points in the low and even mid 70s. Highest heat indices
each afternoon could top out in the 100-105 range, so forecast needs
to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory due to a prolonged
period of days where heat indices approach criteria (105F). This
advisory would come with a later forecast issuance. One factor that
could limit temperatures and associated heat indices could be the
afternoon/evening convection.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as some
degree of troughing over the western CONUS tries push the upper
ridge axis east. Should this scenario play out, it would bring
better chances for storms to our western CWA, along with
temperatures not as hot. As a result, will go with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Confidence in convective forecast this period is low, as cirrus
shield from storms to our northwest quickly moves into the region.
Have some cumulus developing over the central forecast area this
hour, and SPC mesoanalysis indicates plenty of instability across
the region. However, the cirrus canopy should provide some
subsidence to inhibit convection. There is still a possibility that
the storms to our northwest can remain organized enough to bring
those storms to the terminals later this afternoon. Thus have gone
with vicinity storms over a larger period of time and will update as
the afternoon progresses. May even get into another round of precip
later tonight, as additional disturbances move in from the
northwest, but a lot will depend on what happens this afternoon. Fog
forecast for Thursday morning will depend on that as well. Given
very high dewpoints across BWG this hour, have enough confidence to
go with a period of MVFR conditions, as in current guidance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201905
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s is making for an uncomfortable afternoon, with a few
storms starting to pop up. Deck of high clouds streaming in from the
northwest has helped to hold off significant development across most
of our region to this point. Have a thunderstorm complex developing
in the unstable airmass over north central TN, and this complex may
force some new storms to develop along an outflow boundary in
southern KY. A few storms also are forming along the corridor from
Hancock county to Casey county in KY, with even more storms east of
the complex over south central IN.

Best instability and moisture still resides over southern KY, so
will keep most focus for severe weather down there the next few
hours, with a secondary focus over our southeastern counties. For
this evening, should continue to see scattered development away from
these focus areas, with the northeast forecast area having the best
chance to continue with storms after midnight. This region will
continue to be the focus for development the next few periods, as a
ridge aloft should help dry out our southwest forecast area Thursday
and Thursday night.

That ridge will provide hotter temperatures in our southwest as
well, with highs Thursday likely reaching the mid 90s. Heat indices
could top out around 100. Given potential for some cloud cover have
not gone into the next category, 100-105, for heat indices there.
Think we can hold off on our more prolonged period of near heat
advisory criteria until Friday, read on in the discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Friday - Monday...

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

An upper ridge will be in place through this weekend and into next
week, keeping hot and muggy conditions in place. Upper ridge looks
"dirty" with very little in the way of a subsidence inversion
normally seen with this type of environment. Therefore, can`t do
away with storm chances each afternoon and evening. Models are
generally all over the place with expected precipitation fields each
day, despite the fairly good agreement in the overall pattern.
Therefore will just keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast pretty much every day and evening.

As far as temperatures go, highs look to top out in the low and mid
90s each day Friday through Monday as a core of H85 temps between
20 to 23C settle over the area. Some spots could touch the upper 90s
in our western Kentucky counties. Heat indices will be a bit of a
concern during this time period as the hot temperatures will combine
with dew points in the low and even mid 70s. Highest heat indices
each afternoon could top out in the 100-105 range, so forecast needs
to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory due to a prolonged
period of days where heat indices approach criteria (105F). This
advisory would come with a later forecast issuance. One factor that
could limit temperatures and associated heat indices could be the
afternoon/evening convection.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as some
degree of troughing over the western CONUS tries push the upper
ridge axis east. Should this scenario play out, it would bring
better chances for storms to our western CWA, along with
temperatures not as hot. As a result, will go with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Confidence in convective forecast this period is low, as cirrus
shield from storms to our northwest quickly moves into the region.
Have some cumulus developing over the central forecast area this
hour, and SPC mesoanalysis indicates plenty of instability across
the region. However, the cirrus canopy should provide some
subsidence to inhibit convection. There is still a possibility that
the storms to our northwest can remain organized enough to bring
those storms to the terminals later this afternoon. Thus have gone
with vicinity storms over a larger period of time and will update as
the afternoon progresses. May even get into another round of precip
later tonight, as additional disturbances move in from the
northwest, but a lot will depend on what happens this afternoon. Fog
forecast for Thursday morning will depend on that as well. Given
very high dewpoints across BWG this hour, have enough confidence to
go with a period of MVFR conditions, as in current guidance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201905
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s is making for an uncomfortable afternoon, with a few
storms starting to pop up. Deck of high clouds streaming in from the
northwest has helped to hold off significant development across most
of our region to this point. Have a thunderstorm complex developing
in the unstable airmass over north central TN, and this complex may
force some new storms to develop along an outflow boundary in
southern KY. A few storms also are forming along the corridor from
Hancock county to Casey county in KY, with even more storms east of
the complex over south central IN.

Best instability and moisture still resides over southern KY, so
will keep most focus for severe weather down there the next few
hours, with a secondary focus over our southeastern counties. For
this evening, should continue to see scattered development away from
these focus areas, with the northeast forecast area having the best
chance to continue with storms after midnight. This region will
continue to be the focus for development the next few periods, as a
ridge aloft should help dry out our southwest forecast area Thursday
and Thursday night.

That ridge will provide hotter temperatures in our southwest as
well, with highs Thursday likely reaching the mid 90s. Heat indices
could top out around 100. Given potential for some cloud cover have
not gone into the next category, 100-105, for heat indices there.
Think we can hold off on our more prolonged period of near heat
advisory criteria until Friday, read on in the discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Friday - Monday...

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

An upper ridge will be in place through this weekend and into next
week, keeping hot and muggy conditions in place. Upper ridge looks
"dirty" with very little in the way of a subsidence inversion
normally seen with this type of environment. Therefore, can`t do
away with storm chances each afternoon and evening. Models are
generally all over the place with expected precipitation fields each
day, despite the fairly good agreement in the overall pattern.
Therefore will just keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast pretty much every day and evening.

As far as temperatures go, highs look to top out in the low and mid
90s each day Friday through Monday as a core of H85 temps between
20 to 23C settle over the area. Some spots could touch the upper 90s
in our western Kentucky counties. Heat indices will be a bit of a
concern during this time period as the hot temperatures will combine
with dew points in the low and even mid 70s. Highest heat indices
each afternoon could top out in the 100-105 range, so forecast needs
to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory due to a prolonged
period of days where heat indices approach criteria (105F). This
advisory would come with a later forecast issuance. One factor that
could limit temperatures and associated heat indices could be the
afternoon/evening convection.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as some
degree of troughing over the western CONUS tries push the upper
ridge axis east. Should this scenario play out, it would bring
better chances for storms to our western CWA, along with
temperatures not as hot. As a result, will go with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Confidence in convective forecast this period is low, as cirrus
shield from storms to our northwest quickly moves into the region.
Have some cumulus developing over the central forecast area this
hour, and SPC mesoanalysis indicates plenty of instability across
the region. However, the cirrus canopy should provide some
subsidence to inhibit convection. There is still a possibility that
the storms to our northwest can remain organized enough to bring
those storms to the terminals later this afternoon. Thus have gone
with vicinity storms over a larger period of time and will update as
the afternoon progresses. May even get into another round of precip
later tonight, as additional disturbances move in from the
northwest, but a lot will depend on what happens this afternoon. Fog
forecast for Thursday morning will depend on that as well. Given
very high dewpoints across BWG this hour, have enough confidence to
go with a period of MVFR conditions, as in current guidance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201737
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
137 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Complex across central Illinois is holding together fairly well
early this afternoon. Have a pretty thick canopy of cirrus out ahead
of the storms, but it may hold together enough as it moves into our
forecast area. High-res models are not too gung ho about rain
chances in this area this afternoon, but with a very unstable
surface-based atmosphere in our region, SPC mesoanalysis has 4-6 k
CAPEs, just cannot rule out storms developing/maintaining. Have
shifted the highest pop axis a little south, to a Huntingburg, IN to
Danville, KY line. Will continue to watch incoming pattern for
updates through the afternoon.

Issued at 1135 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Partly cloudy skies were noted across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to
near 80- in the east/northeast with lower 80s generally in the I-65
corridor and points west.  From the KY Mesonet data and visible
satellite imagery, there appears to be boundary draped across the
southern part of the forecast area.  This evident in the dewpoint
readings across southern KY which are in the middle 70s with only
upper 60s to lower 70s across our NE sections.

A decaying MCS over central IL will continue to spread mid-high
level cloudiness down into mainly western KY this afternoon.  These
clouds along with the boundary in the region may serve as a focus
for convective development later this afternoon.  The high
resolution convection allowing models have vastly different
solutions.  The latest runs of the HRRR keep much of our region dry
thought the day with convection mainly developing out to our west.
While the NSSL WRF ARW runs develop convection up near CVG and drop
it SE into WFO JKL`s region.  The mixed signals in the guidance make
this forecast particularly challenging this afternoon.

For now, have kept the current forecast on track.  Current thinking
is that convection will probably start to develop over the next few
hours along the left over boundary...given multiple convectively
induced lifting mechanisms cross the region.  Damaging winds and
perhaps some large hail will be possible with the storms this
afternoon as moderate instability combined with around 30 kts of
WNW flow aloft will be in place across the region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

A complex short term forecast is in store with multiple rounds of
strong to potentially severe convection possible as potent
shortwaves topple a central CONUS ridge and dive southeast into the
Ohio Valley.  In addition, the eastern edge of a warm front will
slowly lift north over the region over the next few days providing
focus for convection.  Also left over boundaries from storms
will provide focus for renewed convection over the next few days
with convective activity peaking during the afternoon and evening
hours during best instability.

As of 315am this morning, convection over the Bluegrass region was
causing mainly very heavy rainfall and lots of lightning.  A flood
advisory is effect for northern Harrison County KY through 6am this
morning due to training storms over that area.  The Harrison County
mesonet has received 1.34 inches of rain so far with impressive
rainfall rates which may cause minor flooding issues.

Think that this complex of storms will move east of the area within
the next 1-2 hrs and we may see a dry period through the morning
hours.  Expect a left over boundary from convection over central
Indiana yesterday evening to settle somewhere near the Ohio River
over portions of southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
Believe this boundary will be key for redevelopment of convection
this afternoon.

Most short range models indicate a shortwave will dive south into
the area this evening.  Ahead of this wave, expect the atmosphere to
become very unstable with only partly cloudy skies in the wake of
morning convection.  Bulk shear will increase ahead of the wave as
early as 1-3pm this afternoon.  This is when we may see convection
begin to fire in the region of the left over sfc boundary.
Convection should be enhanced in strength and coverage during the
evening hours as the shortwave passes through.  It is a bit unclear
how long into the evening and overnight hours convection will
continue.  It may survive for a prolonged period of time if a good
cold pool and outflow boundaries get going.  At some point late
tonight into tomorrow morning expect a break in showers/storms.
Another notable shortwave looks to impact mainly northern KY and
southern Indiana with storms for Thurs afternoon/evening as well.
Models generally do not have a good handle on ongoing convection and
evolution so confidence is rather low on exact timing.  However,
model soundings indicate increased bulk shear values with each wave
and excellent instability so storms will likely be strong to severe
in nature today through Thurs with damaging winds, large hail, and
torrential rainfall all possible.  PWATs will hover in the 1.6-2
inch range resulting in some heavy rainers and potential flood
problems.

As for temperatures, think that highs will range from the upper 80s
to lower 90s today and tomorrow with locations west of I-65 likely
seeing max heat indices near 100 each afternoon.  Low temperatures
tonight will be mild in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Expect a hot spell throughout the entire extended period, at least
through the middle portion of next week.

In an upper air pattern that we`ve not seen much of this summer,
strong 500mb ridging will develop initially across the lower
Mississippi Valley by Thursday evening, with longwave troughs
located over the Pacific Northwest and New England. The wavelength
of this trough-ridge-trough pattern will lead to a stagnant pattern.
The GFS for example holds this ridge in place through at least late
Monday, building it northwards towards the Commonwealth. We should
expect probably a week`s worth of hot sticky humid weather with
highs well into the 90s and warm overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Rising Heat
Indices may be a concern for early next week.

In this type of pattern, shortwaves moving along the periphery of
500mb ridging can bring episodic convection. Initially, Thursday
night through Sunday, scattered thunderstorms may develop within a
northwest flow pattern along the northeastern edge of this building
ridge. This would favor southeastern Indiana, southern Ohio and the
northern Bluegrass for possible scattered thunderstorms,
concentrated during the afternoon and evening hours. Southwestern
Kentucky, closer to the warm temperatures aloft associated with this
ridge, will likely stay dry.

By Monday and Tuesday, think the entire region will be dry, as
ridging builds northwards into the Commonwealth.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Confidence in convective forecast this period is low, as cirrus
shield from storms to our northwest quickly moves into the region.
Have some cumulus developing over the central forecast area this
hour, and SPC mesoanalysis indicates plenty of instability across
the region. However, the cirrus canopy should provide some
subsidence to inhibit convection. There is still a possibility that
the storms to our northwest can remain organized enough to bring
those storms to the terminals later this afternoon. Thus have gone
with vicinity storms over a larger period of time and will update as
the afternoon progresses. May even get into another round of precip
later tonight, as additional disturbances move in from the
northwest, but a lot will depend on what happens this afternoon. Fog
forecast for Thursday morning will depend on that as well. Given
very high dewpoints across BWG this hour, have enough confidence to
go with a period of MVFR conditions, as in current guidance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........MJ/RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201737
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
137 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Complex across central Illinois is holding together fairly well
early this afternoon. Have a pretty thick canopy of cirrus out ahead
of the storms, but it may hold together enough as it moves into our
forecast area. High-res models are not too gung ho about rain
chances in this area this afternoon, but with a very unstable
surface-based atmosphere in our region, SPC mesoanalysis has 4-6 k
CAPEs, just cannot rule out storms developing/maintaining. Have
shifted the highest pop axis a little south, to a Huntingburg, IN to
Danville, KY line. Will continue to watch incoming pattern for
updates through the afternoon.

Issued at 1135 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Partly cloudy skies were noted across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to
near 80- in the east/northeast with lower 80s generally in the I-65
corridor and points west.  From the KY Mesonet data and visible
satellite imagery, there appears to be boundary draped across the
southern part of the forecast area.  This evident in the dewpoint
readings across southern KY which are in the middle 70s with only
upper 60s to lower 70s across our NE sections.

A decaying MCS over central IL will continue to spread mid-high
level cloudiness down into mainly western KY this afternoon.  These
clouds along with the boundary in the region may serve as a focus
for convective development later this afternoon.  The high
resolution convection allowing models have vastly different
solutions.  The latest runs of the HRRR keep much of our region dry
thought the day with convection mainly developing out to our west.
While the NSSL WRF ARW runs develop convection up near CVG and drop
it SE into WFO JKL`s region.  The mixed signals in the guidance make
this forecast particularly challenging this afternoon.

For now, have kept the current forecast on track.  Current thinking
is that convection will probably start to develop over the next few
hours along the left over boundary...given multiple convectively
induced lifting mechanisms cross the region.  Damaging winds and
perhaps some large hail will be possible with the storms this
afternoon as moderate instability combined with around 30 kts of
WNW flow aloft will be in place across the region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

A complex short term forecast is in store with multiple rounds of
strong to potentially severe convection possible as potent
shortwaves topple a central CONUS ridge and dive southeast into the
Ohio Valley.  In addition, the eastern edge of a warm front will
slowly lift north over the region over the next few days providing
focus for convection.  Also left over boundaries from storms
will provide focus for renewed convection over the next few days
with convective activity peaking during the afternoon and evening
hours during best instability.

As of 315am this morning, convection over the Bluegrass region was
causing mainly very heavy rainfall and lots of lightning.  A flood
advisory is effect for northern Harrison County KY through 6am this
morning due to training storms over that area.  The Harrison County
mesonet has received 1.34 inches of rain so far with impressive
rainfall rates which may cause minor flooding issues.

Think that this complex of storms will move east of the area within
the next 1-2 hrs and we may see a dry period through the morning
hours.  Expect a left over boundary from convection over central
Indiana yesterday evening to settle somewhere near the Ohio River
over portions of southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
Believe this boundary will be key for redevelopment of convection
this afternoon.

Most short range models indicate a shortwave will dive south into
the area this evening.  Ahead of this wave, expect the atmosphere to
become very unstable with only partly cloudy skies in the wake of
morning convection.  Bulk shear will increase ahead of the wave as
early as 1-3pm this afternoon.  This is when we may see convection
begin to fire in the region of the left over sfc boundary.
Convection should be enhanced in strength and coverage during the
evening hours as the shortwave passes through.  It is a bit unclear
how long into the evening and overnight hours convection will
continue.  It may survive for a prolonged period of time if a good
cold pool and outflow boundaries get going.  At some point late
tonight into tomorrow morning expect a break in showers/storms.
Another notable shortwave looks to impact mainly northern KY and
southern Indiana with storms for Thurs afternoon/evening as well.
Models generally do not have a good handle on ongoing convection and
evolution so confidence is rather low on exact timing.  However,
model soundings indicate increased bulk shear values with each wave
and excellent instability so storms will likely be strong to severe
in nature today through Thurs with damaging winds, large hail, and
torrential rainfall all possible.  PWATs will hover in the 1.6-2
inch range resulting in some heavy rainers and potential flood
problems.

As for temperatures, think that highs will range from the upper 80s
to lower 90s today and tomorrow with locations west of I-65 likely
seeing max heat indices near 100 each afternoon.  Low temperatures
tonight will be mild in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Expect a hot spell throughout the entire extended period, at least
through the middle portion of next week.

In an upper air pattern that we`ve not seen much of this summer,
strong 500mb ridging will develop initially across the lower
Mississippi Valley by Thursday evening, with longwave troughs
located over the Pacific Northwest and New England. The wavelength
of this trough-ridge-trough pattern will lead to a stagnant pattern.
The GFS for example holds this ridge in place through at least late
Monday, building it northwards towards the Commonwealth. We should
expect probably a week`s worth of hot sticky humid weather with
highs well into the 90s and warm overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Rising Heat
Indices may be a concern for early next week.

In this type of pattern, shortwaves moving along the periphery of
500mb ridging can bring episodic convection. Initially, Thursday
night through Sunday, scattered thunderstorms may develop within a
northwest flow pattern along the northeastern edge of this building
ridge. This would favor southeastern Indiana, southern Ohio and the
northern Bluegrass for possible scattered thunderstorms,
concentrated during the afternoon and evening hours. Southwestern
Kentucky, closer to the warm temperatures aloft associated with this
ridge, will likely stay dry.

By Monday and Tuesday, think the entire region will be dry, as
ridging builds northwards into the Commonwealth.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Confidence in convective forecast this period is low, as cirrus
shield from storms to our northwest quickly moves into the region.
Have some cumulus developing over the central forecast area this
hour, and SPC mesoanalysis indicates plenty of instability across
the region. However, the cirrus canopy should provide some
subsidence to inhibit convection. There is still a possibility that
the storms to our northwest can remain organized enough to bring
those storms to the terminals later this afternoon. Thus have gone
with vicinity storms over a larger period of time and will update as
the afternoon progresses. May even get into another round of precip
later tonight, as additional disturbances move in from the
northwest, but a lot will depend on what happens this afternoon. Fog
forecast for Thursday morning will depend on that as well. Given
very high dewpoints across BWG this hour, have enough confidence to
go with a period of MVFR conditions, as in current guidance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........MJ/RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201538
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1138 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Partly cloudy skies were noted across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to
near 80- in the east/northeast with lower 80s generally in the I-65
corridor and points west.  From the KY Mesonet data and visible
satellite imagery, there appears to be boundary draped across the
southern part of the forecast area.  This evident in the dewpoint
readings across southern KY which are in the middle 70s with only
upper 60s to lower 70s across our NE sections.

A decaying MCS over central IL will continue to spread mid-high
level cloudiness down into mainly western KY this afternoon.  These
clouds along with the boundary in the region may serve as a focus
for convective development later this afternoon.  The high
resolution convection allowing models have vastly different
solutions.  The latest runs of the HRRR keep much of our region dry
thought the day with convection mainly developing out to our west.
While the NSSL WRF ARW runs develop convection up near CVG and drop
it SE into WFO JKL`s region.  The mixed signals in the guidance make
this forecast particularly challenging this afternoon.

For now, have kept the current forecast on track.  Current thinking
is that convection will probably start to develop over the next few
hours along the left over boundary...given multiple convectively
induced lifting mechanisms cross the region.  Damaging winds and
perhaps some large hail will be possible with the storms this
afternoon as moderate instability combined with around 30 kts of
WNW flow aloft will be in place across the region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

A complex short term forecast is in store with multiple rounds of
strong to potentially severe convection possible as potent
shortwaves topple a central CONUS ridge and dive southeast into the
Ohio Valley.  In addition, the eastern edge of a warm front will
slowly lift north over the region over the next few days providing
focus for convection.  Also left over boundaries from storms
will provide focus for renewed convection over the next few days
with convective activity peaking during the afternoon and evening
hours during best instability.

As of 315am this morning, convection over the Bluegrass region was
causing mainly very heavy rainfall and lots of lightning.  A flood
advisory is effect for northern Harrison County KY through 6am this
morning due to training storms over that area.  The Harrison County
mesonet has received 1.34 inches of rain so far with impressive
rainfall rates which may cause minor flooding issues.

Think that this complex of storms will move east of the area within
the next 1-2 hrs and we may see a dry period through the morning
hours.  Expect a left over boundary from convection over central
Indiana yesterday evening to settle somewhere near the Ohio River
over portions of southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
Believe this boundary will be key for redevelopment of convection
this afternoon.

Most short range models indicate a shortwave will dive south into
the area this evening.  Ahead of this wave, expect the atmosphere to
become very unstable with only partly cloudy skies in the wake of
morning convection.  Bulk shear will increase ahead of the wave as
early as 1-3pm this afternoon.  This is when we may see convection
begin to fire in the region of the left over sfc boundary.
Convection should be enhanced in strength and coverage during the
evening hours as the shortwave passes through.  It is a bit unclear
how long into the evening and overnight hours convection will
continue.  It may survive for a prolonged period of time if a good
cold pool and outflow boundaries get going.  At some point late
tonight into tomorrow morning expect a break in showers/storms.
Another notable shortwave looks to impact mainly northern KY and
southern Indiana with storms for Thurs afternoon/evening as well.
Models generally do not have a good handle on ongoing convection and
evolution so confidence is rather low on exact timing.  However,
model soundings indicate increased bulk shear values with each wave
and excellent instability so storms will likely be strong to severe
in nature today through Thurs with damaging winds, large hail, and
torrential rainfall all possible.  PWATs will hover in the 1.6-2
inch range resulting in some heavy rainers and potential flood
problems.

As for temperatures, think that highs will range from the upper 80s
to lower 90s today and tomorrow with locations west of I-65 likely
seeing max heat indices near 100 each afternoon.  Low temperatures
tonight will be mild in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Expect a hot spell throughout the entire extended period, at least
through the middle portion of next week.

In an upper air pattern that we`ve not seen much of this summer,
strong 500mb ridging will develop initially across the lower
Mississippi Valley by Thursday evening, with longwave troughs
located over the Pacific Northwest and New England. The wavelength
of this trough-ridge-trough pattern will lead to a stagnant pattern.
The GFS for example holds this ridge in place through at least late
Monday, building it northwards towards the Commonwealth. We should
expect probably a week`s worth of hot sticky humid weather with
highs well into the 90s and warm overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Rising Heat
Indices may be a concern for early next week.

In this type of pattern, shortwaves moving along the periphery of
500mb ridging can bring episodic convection. Initially, Thursday
night through Sunday, scattered thunderstorms may develop within a
northwest flow pattern along the northeastern edge of this building
ridge. This would favor southeastern Indiana, southern Ohio and the
northern Bluegrass for possible scattered thunderstorms,
concentrated during the afternoon and evening hours. Southwestern
Kentucky, closer to the warm temperatures aloft associated with this
ridge, will likely stay dry.

By Monday and Tuesday, think the entire region will be dry, as
ridging builds northwards into the Commonwealth.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

The main TAF concerns will be brief MVFR restrictions this morning
and convection timing.

MVFR cigs have worked into LEX this morning and expect them to
remain for the next few hours.  Low clouds are also close to SDF but
think that they will remain just north of the terminal this
morning.  BWG could see some light br but the window is quickly
closing for any MVFR restrictions so will keep them VFR this morning.

This evening a convective complex is expected to develop to
our northwest and dive south/southeast into the area.  Ahead of this
complex of storms, additional cells may form over central KY.  Felt
confident enough to include VCTS at the TAF sites for this issuance
as models have been persistent with this round of convection.
However, timing may need to be adjusted throughout the day today.

Winds will remain southerly through the TAF period generally 7
kts or less except in t-storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201538
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1138 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Partly cloudy skies were noted across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to
near 80- in the east/northeast with lower 80s generally in the I-65
corridor and points west.  From the KY Mesonet data and visible
satellite imagery, there appears to be boundary draped across the
southern part of the forecast area.  This evident in the dewpoint
readings across southern KY which are in the middle 70s with only
upper 60s to lower 70s across our NE sections.

A decaying MCS over central IL will continue to spread mid-high
level cloudiness down into mainly western KY this afternoon.  These
clouds along with the boundary in the region may serve as a focus
for convective development later this afternoon.  The high
resolution convection allowing models have vastly different
solutions.  The latest runs of the HRRR keep much of our region dry
thought the day with convection mainly developing out to our west.
While the NSSL WRF ARW runs develop convection up near CVG and drop
it SE into WFO JKL`s region.  The mixed signals in the guidance make
this forecast particularly challenging this afternoon.

For now, have kept the current forecast on track.  Current thinking
is that convection will probably start to develop over the next few
hours along the left over boundary...given multiple convectively
induced lifting mechanisms cross the region.  Damaging winds and
perhaps some large hail will be possible with the storms this
afternoon as moderate instability combined with around 30 kts of
WNW flow aloft will be in place across the region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

A complex short term forecast is in store with multiple rounds of
strong to potentially severe convection possible as potent
shortwaves topple a central CONUS ridge and dive southeast into the
Ohio Valley.  In addition, the eastern edge of a warm front will
slowly lift north over the region over the next few days providing
focus for convection.  Also left over boundaries from storms
will provide focus for renewed convection over the next few days
with convective activity peaking during the afternoon and evening
hours during best instability.

As of 315am this morning, convection over the Bluegrass region was
causing mainly very heavy rainfall and lots of lightning.  A flood
advisory is effect for northern Harrison County KY through 6am this
morning due to training storms over that area.  The Harrison County
mesonet has received 1.34 inches of rain so far with impressive
rainfall rates which may cause minor flooding issues.

Think that this complex of storms will move east of the area within
the next 1-2 hrs and we may see a dry period through the morning
hours.  Expect a left over boundary from convection over central
Indiana yesterday evening to settle somewhere near the Ohio River
over portions of southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
Believe this boundary will be key for redevelopment of convection
this afternoon.

Most short range models indicate a shortwave will dive south into
the area this evening.  Ahead of this wave, expect the atmosphere to
become very unstable with only partly cloudy skies in the wake of
morning convection.  Bulk shear will increase ahead of the wave as
early as 1-3pm this afternoon.  This is when we may see convection
begin to fire in the region of the left over sfc boundary.
Convection should be enhanced in strength and coverage during the
evening hours as the shortwave passes through.  It is a bit unclear
how long into the evening and overnight hours convection will
continue.  It may survive for a prolonged period of time if a good
cold pool and outflow boundaries get going.  At some point late
tonight into tomorrow morning expect a break in showers/storms.
Another notable shortwave looks to impact mainly northern KY and
southern Indiana with storms for Thurs afternoon/evening as well.
Models generally do not have a good handle on ongoing convection and
evolution so confidence is rather low on exact timing.  However,
model soundings indicate increased bulk shear values with each wave
and excellent instability so storms will likely be strong to severe
in nature today through Thurs with damaging winds, large hail, and
torrential rainfall all possible.  PWATs will hover in the 1.6-2
inch range resulting in some heavy rainers and potential flood
problems.

As for temperatures, think that highs will range from the upper 80s
to lower 90s today and tomorrow with locations west of I-65 likely
seeing max heat indices near 100 each afternoon.  Low temperatures
tonight will be mild in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Expect a hot spell throughout the entire extended period, at least
through the middle portion of next week.

In an upper air pattern that we`ve not seen much of this summer,
strong 500mb ridging will develop initially across the lower
Mississippi Valley by Thursday evening, with longwave troughs
located over the Pacific Northwest and New England. The wavelength
of this trough-ridge-trough pattern will lead to a stagnant pattern.
The GFS for example holds this ridge in place through at least late
Monday, building it northwards towards the Commonwealth. We should
expect probably a week`s worth of hot sticky humid weather with
highs well into the 90s and warm overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Rising Heat
Indices may be a concern for early next week.

In this type of pattern, shortwaves moving along the periphery of
500mb ridging can bring episodic convection. Initially, Thursday
night through Sunday, scattered thunderstorms may develop within a
northwest flow pattern along the northeastern edge of this building
ridge. This would favor southeastern Indiana, southern Ohio and the
northern Bluegrass for possible scattered thunderstorms,
concentrated during the afternoon and evening hours. Southwestern
Kentucky, closer to the warm temperatures aloft associated with this
ridge, will likely stay dry.

By Monday and Tuesday, think the entire region will be dry, as
ridging builds northwards into the Commonwealth.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

The main TAF concerns will be brief MVFR restrictions this morning
and convection timing.

MVFR cigs have worked into LEX this morning and expect them to
remain for the next few hours.  Low clouds are also close to SDF but
think that they will remain just north of the terminal this
morning.  BWG could see some light br but the window is quickly
closing for any MVFR restrictions so will keep them VFR this morning.

This evening a convective complex is expected to develop to
our northwest and dive south/southeast into the area.  Ahead of this
complex of storms, additional cells may form over central KY.  Felt
confident enough to include VCTS at the TAF sites for this issuance
as models have been persistent with this round of convection.
However, timing may need to be adjusted throughout the day today.

Winds will remain southerly through the TAF period generally 7
kts or less except in t-storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201510
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1110 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

A complex short term forecast is in store with multiple rounds of
strong to potentially severe convection possible as potent
shortwaves topple a central CONUS ridge and dive southeast into the
Ohio Valley.  In addition, the eastern edge of a warm front will
slowly lift north over the region over the next few days providing
focus for convection.  Also left over boundaries from storms
will provide focus for renewed convection over the next few days
with convective activity peaking during the afternoon and evening
hours during best instability.

As of 315am this morning, convection over the Bluegrass region was
causing mainly very heavy rainfall and lots of lightning.  A flood
advisory is effect for northern Harrison County KY through 6am this
morning due to training storms over that area.  The Harrison County
mesonet has received 1.34 inches of rain so far with impressive
rainfall rates which may cause minor flooding issues.

Think that this complex of storms will move east of the area within
the next 1-2 hrs and we may see a dry period through the morning
hours.  Expect a left over boundary from convection over central
Indiana yesterday evening to settle somewhere near the Ohio River
over portions of southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
Believe this boundary will be key for redevelopment of convection
this afternoon.

Most short range models indicate a shortwave will dive south into
the area this evening.  Ahead of this wave, expect the atmosphere to
become very unstable with only partly cloudy skies in the wake of
morning convection.  Bulk shear will increase ahead of the wave as
early as 1-3pm this afternoon.  This is when we may see convection
begin to fire in the region of the left over sfc boundary.
Convection should be enhanced in strength and coverage during the
evening hours as the shortwave passes through.  It is a bit unclear
how long into the evening and overnight hours convection will
continue.  It may survive for a prolonged period of time if a good
cold pool and outflow boundaries get going.  At some point late
tonight into tomorrow morning expect a break in showers/storms.
Another notable shortwave looks to impact mainly northern KY and
southern Indiana with storms for Thurs afternoon/evening as well.
Models generally do not have a good handle on ongoing convection and
evolution so confidence is rather low on exact timing.  However,
model soundings indicate increased bulk shear values with each wave
and excellent instability so storms will likely be strong to severe
in nature today through Thurs with damaging winds, large hail, and
torrential rainfall all possible.  PWATs will hover in the 1.6-2
inch range resulting in some heavy rainers and potential flood
problems.

As for temperatures, think that highs will range from the upper 80s
to lower 90s today and tomorrow with locations west of I-65 likely
seeing max heat indices near 100 each afternoon.  Low temperatures
tonight will be mild in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Expect a hot spell throughout the entire extended period, at least
through the middle portion of next week.

In an upper air pattern that we`ve not seen much of this summer,
strong 500mb ridging will develop initially across the lower
Mississippi Valley by Thursday evening, with longwave troughs
located over the Pacific Northwest and New England. The wavelength
of this trough-ridge-trough pattern will lead to a stagnant pattern.
The GFS for example holds this ridge in place through at least late
Monday, building it northwards towards the Commonwealth. We should
expect probably a week`s worth of hot sticky humid weather with
highs well into the 90s and warm overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Rising Heat
Indices may be a concern for early next week.

In this type of pattern, shortwaves moving along the periphery of
500mb ridging can bring episodic convection. Initially, Thursday
night through Sunday, scattered thunderstorms may develop within a
northwest flow pattern along the northeastern edge of this building
ridge. This would favor southeastern Indiana, southern Ohio and the
northern Bluegrass for possible scattered thunderstorms,
concentrated during the afternoon and evening hours. Southwestern
Kentucky, closer to the warm temperatures aloft associated with this
ridge, will likely stay dry.

By Monday and Tuesday, think the entire region will be dry, as
ridging builds northwards into the Commonwealth.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

The main TAF concerns will be brief MVFR restrictions this morning
and convection timing.

MVFR cigs have worked into LEX this morning and expect them to
remain for the next few hours.  Low clouds are also close to SDF but
think that they will remain just north of the terminal this
morning.  BWG could see some light br but the window is quickly
closing for any MVFR restrictions so will keep them VFR this morning.

This evening a convective complex is expected to develop to
our northwest and dive south/southeast into the area.  Ahead of this
complex of storms, additional cells may form over central KY.  Felt
confident enough to include VCTS at the TAF sites for this issuance
as models have been persistent with this round of convection.
However, timing may need to be adjusted throughout the day today.

Winds will remain southerly through the TAF period generally 7
kts or less except in t-storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201510
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1110 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

A complex short term forecast is in store with multiple rounds of
strong to potentially severe convection possible as potent
shortwaves topple a central CONUS ridge and dive southeast into the
Ohio Valley.  In addition, the eastern edge of a warm front will
slowly lift north over the region over the next few days providing
focus for convection.  Also left over boundaries from storms
will provide focus for renewed convection over the next few days
with convective activity peaking during the afternoon and evening
hours during best instability.

As of 315am this morning, convection over the Bluegrass region was
causing mainly very heavy rainfall and lots of lightning.  A flood
advisory is effect for northern Harrison County KY through 6am this
morning due to training storms over that area.  The Harrison County
mesonet has received 1.34 inches of rain so far with impressive
rainfall rates which may cause minor flooding issues.

Think that this complex of storms will move east of the area within
the next 1-2 hrs and we may see a dry period through the morning
hours.  Expect a left over boundary from convection over central
Indiana yesterday evening to settle somewhere near the Ohio River
over portions of southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
Believe this boundary will be key for redevelopment of convection
this afternoon.

Most short range models indicate a shortwave will dive south into
the area this evening.  Ahead of this wave, expect the atmosphere to
become very unstable with only partly cloudy skies in the wake of
morning convection.  Bulk shear will increase ahead of the wave as
early as 1-3pm this afternoon.  This is when we may see convection
begin to fire in the region of the left over sfc boundary.
Convection should be enhanced in strength and coverage during the
evening hours as the shortwave passes through.  It is a bit unclear
how long into the evening and overnight hours convection will
continue.  It may survive for a prolonged period of time if a good
cold pool and outflow boundaries get going.  At some point late
tonight into tomorrow morning expect a break in showers/storms.
Another notable shortwave looks to impact mainly northern KY and
southern Indiana with storms for Thurs afternoon/evening as well.
Models generally do not have a good handle on ongoing convection and
evolution so confidence is rather low on exact timing.  However,
model soundings indicate increased bulk shear values with each wave
and excellent instability so storms will likely be strong to severe
in nature today through Thurs with damaging winds, large hail, and
torrential rainfall all possible.  PWATs will hover in the 1.6-2
inch range resulting in some heavy rainers and potential flood
problems.

As for temperatures, think that highs will range from the upper 80s
to lower 90s today and tomorrow with locations west of I-65 likely
seeing max heat indices near 100 each afternoon.  Low temperatures
tonight will be mild in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Expect a hot spell throughout the entire extended period, at least
through the middle portion of next week.

In an upper air pattern that we`ve not seen much of this summer,
strong 500mb ridging will develop initially across the lower
Mississippi Valley by Thursday evening, with longwave troughs
located over the Pacific Northwest and New England. The wavelength
of this trough-ridge-trough pattern will lead to a stagnant pattern.
The GFS for example holds this ridge in place through at least late
Monday, building it northwards towards the Commonwealth. We should
expect probably a week`s worth of hot sticky humid weather with
highs well into the 90s and warm overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Rising Heat
Indices may be a concern for early next week.

In this type of pattern, shortwaves moving along the periphery of
500mb ridging can bring episodic convection. Initially, Thursday
night through Sunday, scattered thunderstorms may develop within a
northwest flow pattern along the northeastern edge of this building
ridge. This would favor southeastern Indiana, southern Ohio and the
northern Bluegrass for possible scattered thunderstorms,
concentrated during the afternoon and evening hours. Southwestern
Kentucky, closer to the warm temperatures aloft associated with this
ridge, will likely stay dry.

By Monday and Tuesday, think the entire region will be dry, as
ridging builds northwards into the Commonwealth.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

The main TAF concerns will be brief MVFR restrictions this morning
and convection timing.

MVFR cigs have worked into LEX this morning and expect them to
remain for the next few hours.  Low clouds are also close to SDF but
think that they will remain just north of the terminal this
morning.  BWG could see some light br but the window is quickly
closing for any MVFR restrictions so will keep them VFR this morning.

This evening a convective complex is expected to develop to
our northwest and dive south/southeast into the area.  Ahead of this
complex of storms, additional cells may form over central KY.  Felt
confident enough to include VCTS at the TAF sites for this issuance
as models have been persistent with this round of convection.
However, timing may need to be adjusted throughout the day today.

Winds will remain southerly through the TAF period generally 7
kts or less except in t-storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 200746
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
346 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

A complex short term forecast is in store with multiple rounds of
strong to potentially severe convection possible as potent
shortwaves topple a central CONUS ridge and dive southeast into the
Ohio Valley.  In addition, the eastern edge of a warm front will
slowly lift north over the region over the next few days providing
focus for convection.  Also left over boundaries from storms
will provide focus for renewed convection over the next few days
with convective activity peaking during the afternoon and evening
hours during best instability.

As of 315am this morning, convection over the Bluegrass region was
causing mainly very heavy rainfall and lots of lightning.  A flood
advisory is effect for northern Harrison County KY through 6am this
morning due to training storms over that area.  The Harrison County
mesonet has received 1.34 inches of rain so far with impressive
rainfall rates which may cause minor flooding issues.

Think that this complex of storms will move east of the area within
the next 1-2 hrs and we may see a dry period through the morning
hours.  Expect a left over boundary from convection over central
Indiana yesterday evening to settle somewhere near the Ohio River
over portions of southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
Believe this boundary will be key for redevelopment of convection
this afternoon.

Most short range models indicate a shortwave will dive south into
the area this evening.  Ahead of this wave, expect the atmosphere to
become very unstable with only partly cloudy skies in the wake of
morning convection.  Bulk shear will increase ahead of the wave as
early as 1-3pm this afternoon.  This is when we may see convection
begin to fire in the region of the left over sfc boundary.
Convection should be enhanced in strength and coverage during the
evening hours as the shortwave passes through.  It is a bit unclear
how long into the evening and overnight hours convection will
continue.  It may survive for a prolonged period of time if a good
cold pool and outflow boundaries get going.  At some point late
tonight into tomorrow morning expect a break in showers/storms.
Another notable shortwave looks to impact mainly northern KY and
southern Indiana with storms for Thurs afternoon/evening as well.
Models generally do not have a good handle on ongoing convection and
evolution so confidence is rather low on exact timing.  However,
model soundings indicate increased bulk shear values with each wave
and excellent instability so storms will likely be strong to severe
in nature today through Thurs with damaging winds, large hail, and
torrential rainfall all possible.  PWATs will hover in the 1.6-2
inch range resulting in some heavy rainers and potential flood
problems.

As for temperatures, think that highs will range from the upper 80s
to lower 90s today and tomorrow with locations west of I-65 likely
seeing max heat indices near 100 each afternoon.  Low temperatures
tonight will be mild in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Expect a hot spell throughout the entire extended period, at least
through the middle portion of next week.

In an upper air pattern that we`ve not seen much of this summer,
strong 500mb ridging will develop initially across the lower
Mississippi Valley by Thursday evening, with longwave troughs
located over the Pacific Northwest and New England. The wavelength
of this trough-ridge-trough pattern will lead to a stagnant pattern.
The GFS for example holds this ridge in place through at least late
Monday, building it northwards towards the Commonwealth. We should
expect probably a week`s worth of hot sticky humid weather with
highs well into the 90s and warm overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Rising Heat
Indices may be a concern for early next week.

In this type of pattern, shortwaves moving along the periphery of
500mb ridging can bring episodic convection. Initially, Thursday
night through Sunday, scattered thunderstorms may develop within a
northwest flow pattern along the northeastern edge of this building
ridge. This would favor southeastern Indiana, southern Ohio and the
northern Bluegrass for possible scattered thunderstorms,
concentrated during the afternoon and evening hours. Southwestern
Kentucky, closer to the warm temperatures aloft associated with this
ridge, will likely stay dry.

By Monday and Tuesday, think the entire region will be dry, as
ridging builds northwards into the Commonwealth.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

The main TAF concerns will be any light br this morning and
convection timing.  First of all, the convection in the area early
this morning looks to impact perhaps the LEX TAF with a rain shower
over the next few hours before moving out of the region.  Will need
to keep an eye on the convective complex over central Indiana as it
slowly makes progress southward toward SDF/LEX this morning.  It is
weakening and most short range models do not have it making it into
these TAF sites early this morning so will not include in the
SDF/LEX TAFs at this point although will watch closely.

The next concern is light br formation around sunrise. Went ahead
and backed off of vsbys some with this TAF issuance as the mixy
atmosphere with a 20 kt LLJ expected during the pre-dawn hours
should limit fog density.  Will hold BWG/LEX at MVFR conditions
around sunrise and SDF at VFR.

This evening another convective complex is expected to develop to
our northwest and dive south/southeast into the area.  Ahead of this
complex of storms, additional cells may form over central KY.  Felt
confident enough to include VCTS at the TAF sites for this issuance
as models have been persistent with this round of convection.
However, timing may need to be adjusted throughout the day today.

Winds will remain out of the SSW through the TAF period generally 7
kts or less except in t-storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200517
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1215 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

A strong thunderstorm continues to traverse central KY early this
morning.  This cell contains numerous lightning strikes and very
heavy rainfall.  This cell continues to show up-ticks in updraft
cores and the latest was strong enough to prompt a t-storm warning.
1 inch hail and/or damaging winds are expected.  Numerous tree
branches/limbs have been reported down near Leitchfield with pea
size hail.  This cell looks to be on the southwest side of a small
MCV that has developed over central KY.  Will need to keep a close
eye on this complex as it moves east through central KY over the
next few hours.  Furthermore, additional weak storms are developing
over northern KY and southern IN early this morning in an
environment with plentiful elevated instability and modest wind
shear.

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Convection over central Indiana is struggling to get organized, and
storms over western Kentucky pretty much fizzled over the Pennyrile
region as they ran into a lot more convective inhibition. Mid-level
wave still has yet to cross the area, and might get some help from a
modest 20 kt southwesterly low-level jet that is expected to
develop. Overall trend is to lower POPs overnight, now tapering from
a 40 POP over southern Indiana to 20 POP south of the Western
Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways. However, even that seems generous,
and the window for any strong/severe storms may be closing as well.

At this time will start to nudge POPs downward, and continue to
monitor trends another hour or so before trying to tone down the HWO
too much.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Somewhat of a complicated and low confidence forecast in the near
term.  Currently, partly to mostly sunny skies were noted across the
forecast area.  Temperatures ranged from the lower to middle 80s in
the Bluegrass and central locations to the upper 80s over the far
southwestern areas near Bowling Green.  Insolation is near its
maximum and highs for the day will likely occur very shortly.

Satellite and regional radar composites show a band of convection
working in from the west.  This is ahead of a mid-level wave
rotating around a large closed 500 hPa center well to our north. A
remnant MCV can be seen in the satellite imagery out near St. Louis
and will work eastward into Indiana this afternoon.  As the
afternoon wears on, expect convective inhibition to decrease out
ahead of the approaching MCV.  This should result in a marked uptick
in convective activity to our west which will spread eastward.  The
activity will likely decrease in intensity somewhat as it outruns
the instability axis to the west and also starts to feel the
influence of the loss of daytime heating.

With this said, feel that high PoPs are justified out west of
Interstate 65 later this afternoon and evening.  This afternoon`s
convection is likely to be strong to severe with damaging winds and
large hail being the primary severe weather threats.  However,
expect wind damage to become the primary threat as the line moves on
off to the east this evening/tonight.  Will carry PoPs into the
east, but slightly later than in previous forecasts.  Generally
expect convection to be largely diminished after midnight.
Temperatures this evening will cool back into the upper 70s to the
lower 80s...with overnight lows cooling back into the lower 70s.
We`ll also be on close watch for the reformation of fog tonight.
Overall, current indications suggest it will not be as widespread as
this morning...but it could be locally dense in some locations.

For Wednesday/Wednesday night, expect another day of diurnally
driven convection with an enhancement during the late
afternoon/evening hours as another mid-level wave approaches the
region.  Convection on Wednesday still looks to be generally
scattered in nature, so plan on continuing scattered coverage at
this time.  Instability will be on the increase during the afternoon
hours, so some strong to severe convection can not be ruled out once
again.  Mid-level shear is only forecast to be around 30-35kts, so
organized convection looks likely with multicelluar clusters moving
through the region posing a threat of wind damage.  Still plan on
cutting temperatures a bit as most model guidance is still
exhibiting a warm bias.  Highs on Wednesday will warm into the
middle 80s in the NE with middle-upper 80s in the central sections
and around 90 across the south/southwestern sections.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Hot weather expected through early next week...

A warm front will be pushing north across the region at the
beginning of the long term. Aloft a strong ridge will build in from
the south and remain in place through Sunday morning. It will then
begin to break down a bit Monday into Tuesday as a weak front
approaches from the northwest.

Thursday into Thursday night we will see another round of storms as
the front continues its push northward. Most of the area could see
storms but the best chance will be across southern Indiana and
north/east central KY. Some of the storms could be strong to
marginally severe across this area. There is some uncertainty still
in how strong the storms will be given previous multiple rounds of
storms and uncertainty in the position of the warm front. If they do
develop, gusty winds and hail would be the main concerns.

As the ridge builds in through this weekend the areas with the
storms chances will continue to push northeast leaving areas in the
southwest dry. By the end of the weekend into early next week, rain
chances decrease, so will keep the forecast dry Sunday night into
Monday.

The bigger story for the end of the week into early next week will
be the heat. As the ridge builds in temperatures will be on the
rise. From Friday through Monday high temperatures will range from
the lower to mid 90s, with the potential for upper 90s if the dry
conditions can persist over the southwest. Combined with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will rise into the
upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

The main TAF concerns will be any light br this morning and
convection timing.  First of all, the convection in the area early
this morning looks to impact perhaps the LEX TAF with a rain shower
over the next few hours before moving out of the region.  Will need
to keep an eye on the convective complex over central Indiana as it
slowly makes progress southward toward SDF/LEX this morning.  It is
weakening and most short range models do not have it making it into
these TAF sites early this morning so will not include in the
SDF/LEX TAFs at this point although will watch closely.

The next concern is light br formation around sunrise. Went ahead
and backed off of vsbys some with this TAF issuance as the mixy
atmosphere with a 20 kt LLJ expected during the pre-dawn hours
should limit fog density.  Will hold BWG/LEX at MVFR conditions
around sunrise and SDF at VFR.

This evening another convective complex is expected to develop to
our northwest and dive south/southeast into the area.  Ahead of this
complex of storms, additional cells may form over central KY.  Felt
confident enough to include VCTS at the TAF sites for this issuance
as models have been persistent with this round of convection.
However, timing may need to be adjusted throughout the day today.

Winds will remain out of the SSW through the TAF period generally 7
kts or less except in t-storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......AMS
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200517
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1215 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

A strong thunderstorm continues to traverse central KY early this
morning.  This cell contains numerous lightning strikes and very
heavy rainfall.  This cell continues to show up-ticks in updraft
cores and the latest was strong enough to prompt a t-storm warning.
1 inch hail and/or damaging winds are expected.  Numerous tree
branches/limbs have been reported down near Leitchfield with pea
size hail.  This cell looks to be on the southwest side of a small
MCV that has developed over central KY.  Will need to keep a close
eye on this complex as it moves east through central KY over the
next few hours.  Furthermore, additional weak storms are developing
over northern KY and southern IN early this morning in an
environment with plentiful elevated instability and modest wind
shear.

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Convection over central Indiana is struggling to get organized, and
storms over western Kentucky pretty much fizzled over the Pennyrile
region as they ran into a lot more convective inhibition. Mid-level
wave still has yet to cross the area, and might get some help from a
modest 20 kt southwesterly low-level jet that is expected to
develop. Overall trend is to lower POPs overnight, now tapering from
a 40 POP over southern Indiana to 20 POP south of the Western
Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways. However, even that seems generous,
and the window for any strong/severe storms may be closing as well.

At this time will start to nudge POPs downward, and continue to
monitor trends another hour or so before trying to tone down the HWO
too much.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Somewhat of a complicated and low confidence forecast in the near
term.  Currently, partly to mostly sunny skies were noted across the
forecast area.  Temperatures ranged from the lower to middle 80s in
the Bluegrass and central locations to the upper 80s over the far
southwestern areas near Bowling Green.  Insolation is near its
maximum and highs for the day will likely occur very shortly.

Satellite and regional radar composites show a band of convection
working in from the west.  This is ahead of a mid-level wave
rotating around a large closed 500 hPa center well to our north. A
remnant MCV can be seen in the satellite imagery out near St. Louis
and will work eastward into Indiana this afternoon.  As the
afternoon wears on, expect convective inhibition to decrease out
ahead of the approaching MCV.  This should result in a marked uptick
in convective activity to our west which will spread eastward.  The
activity will likely decrease in intensity somewhat as it outruns
the instability axis to the west and also starts to feel the
influence of the loss of daytime heating.

With this said, feel that high PoPs are justified out west of
Interstate 65 later this afternoon and evening.  This afternoon`s
convection is likely to be strong to severe with damaging winds and
large hail being the primary severe weather threats.  However,
expect wind damage to become the primary threat as the line moves on
off to the east this evening/tonight.  Will carry PoPs into the
east, but slightly later than in previous forecasts.  Generally
expect convection to be largely diminished after midnight.
Temperatures this evening will cool back into the upper 70s to the
lower 80s...with overnight lows cooling back into the lower 70s.
We`ll also be on close watch for the reformation of fog tonight.
Overall, current indications suggest it will not be as widespread as
this morning...but it could be locally dense in some locations.

For Wednesday/Wednesday night, expect another day of diurnally
driven convection with an enhancement during the late
afternoon/evening hours as another mid-level wave approaches the
region.  Convection on Wednesday still looks to be generally
scattered in nature, so plan on continuing scattered coverage at
this time.  Instability will be on the increase during the afternoon
hours, so some strong to severe convection can not be ruled out once
again.  Mid-level shear is only forecast to be around 30-35kts, so
organized convection looks likely with multicelluar clusters moving
through the region posing a threat of wind damage.  Still plan on
cutting temperatures a bit as most model guidance is still
exhibiting a warm bias.  Highs on Wednesday will warm into the
middle 80s in the NE with middle-upper 80s in the central sections
and around 90 across the south/southwestern sections.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Hot weather expected through early next week...

A warm front will be pushing north across the region at the
beginning of the long term. Aloft a strong ridge will build in from
the south and remain in place through Sunday morning. It will then
begin to break down a bit Monday into Tuesday as a weak front
approaches from the northwest.

Thursday into Thursday night we will see another round of storms as
the front continues its push northward. Most of the area could see
storms but the best chance will be across southern Indiana and
north/east central KY. Some of the storms could be strong to
marginally severe across this area. There is some uncertainty still
in how strong the storms will be given previous multiple rounds of
storms and uncertainty in the position of the warm front. If they do
develop, gusty winds and hail would be the main concerns.

As the ridge builds in through this weekend the areas with the
storms chances will continue to push northeast leaving areas in the
southwest dry. By the end of the weekend into early next week, rain
chances decrease, so will keep the forecast dry Sunday night into
Monday.

The bigger story for the end of the week into early next week will
be the heat. As the ridge builds in temperatures will be on the
rise. From Friday through Monday high temperatures will range from
the lower to mid 90s, with the potential for upper 90s if the dry
conditions can persist over the southwest. Combined with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will rise into the
upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

The main TAF concerns will be any light br this morning and
convection timing.  First of all, the convection in the area early
this morning looks to impact perhaps the LEX TAF with a rain shower
over the next few hours before moving out of the region.  Will need
to keep an eye on the convective complex over central Indiana as it
slowly makes progress southward toward SDF/LEX this morning.  It is
weakening and most short range models do not have it making it into
these TAF sites early this morning so will not include in the
SDF/LEX TAFs at this point although will watch closely.

The next concern is light br formation around sunrise. Went ahead
and backed off of vsbys some with this TAF issuance as the mixy
atmosphere with a 20 kt LLJ expected during the pre-dawn hours
should limit fog density.  Will hold BWG/LEX at MVFR conditions
around sunrise and SDF at VFR.

This evening another convective complex is expected to develop to
our northwest and dive south/southeast into the area.  Ahead of this
complex of storms, additional cells may form over central KY.  Felt
confident enough to include VCTS at the TAF sites for this issuance
as models have been persistent with this round of convection.
However, timing may need to be adjusted throughout the day today.

Winds will remain out of the SSW through the TAF period generally 7
kts or less except in t-storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......AMS
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 200425
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1225 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1215 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

A strong thunderstorm continues to traverse central KY early this
morning.  This cell contains numerous lightning strikes and very
heavy rainfall.  This cell continues to show up-ticks in updraft
cores and the latest was strong enough to prompt a t-storm warning.
1 inch hail and/or damaging winds are expected.  Numerous tree
branches/limbs have been reported down near Leitchfield with pea
size hail.  This cell looks to be on the southwest side of a small
MCV that has developed over central KY.  Will need to keep a close
eye on this complex as it moves east through central KY over the
next few hours.  Furthermore, additional weak storms are developing
over northern KY and southern IN early this morning in an
environment with plentiful elevated instability and modest wind
shear.

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Convection over central Indiana is struggling to get organized, and
storms over western Kentucky pretty much fizzled over the Pennyrile
region as they ran into a lot more convective inhibition. Mid-level
wave still has yet to cross the area, and might get some help from a
modest 20 kt southwesterly low-level jet that is expected to
develop. Overall trend is to lower POPs overnight, now tapering from
a 40 POP over southern Indiana to 20 POP south of the Western
Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways. However, even that seems generous,
and the window for any strong/severe storms may be closing as well.

At this time will start to nudge POPs downward, and continue to
monitor trends another hour or so before trying to tone down the HWO
too much.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Somewhat of a complicated and low confidence forecast in the near
term.  Currently, partly to mostly sunny skies were noted across the
forecast area.  Temperatures ranged from the lower to middle 80s in
the Bluegrass and central locations to the upper 80s over the far
southwestern areas near Bowling Green.  Insolation is near its
maximum and highs for the day will likely occur very shortly.

Satellite and regional radar composites show a band of convection
working in from the west.  This is ahead of a mid-level wave
rotating around a large closed 500 hPa center well to our north. A
remnant MCV can be seen in the satellite imagery out near St. Louis
and will work eastward into Indiana this afternoon.  As the
afternoon wears on, expect convective inhibition to decrease out
ahead of the approaching MCV.  This should result in a marked uptick
in convective activity to our west which will spread eastward.  The
activity will likely decrease in intensity somewhat as it outruns
the instability axis to the west and also starts to feel the
influence of the loss of daytime heating.

With this said, feel that high PoPs are justified out west of
Interstate 65 later this afternoon and evening.  This afternoon`s
convection is likely to be strong to severe with damaging winds and
large hail being the primary severe weather threats.  However,
expect wind damage to become the primary threat as the line moves on
off to the east this evening/tonight.  Will carry PoPs into the
east, but slightly later than in previous forecasts.  Generally
expect convection to be largely diminished after midnight.
Temperatures this evening will cool back into the upper 70s to the
lower 80s...with overnight lows cooling back into the lower 70s.
We`ll also be on close watch for the reformation of fog tonight.
Overall, current indications suggest it will not be as widespread as
this morning...but it could be locally dense in some locations.

For Wednesday/Wednesday night, expect another day of diurnally
driven convection with an enhancement during the late
afternoon/evening hours as another mid-level wave approaches the
region.  Convection on Wednesday still looks to be generally
scattered in nature, so plan on continuing scattered coverage at
this time.  Instability will be on the increase during the afternoon
hours, so some strong to severe convection can not be ruled out once
again.  Mid-level shear is only forecast to be around 30-35kts, so
organized convection looks likely with multicelluar clusters moving
through the region posing a threat of wind damage.  Still plan on
cutting temperatures a bit as most model guidance is still
exhibiting a warm bias.  Highs on Wednesday will warm into the
middle 80s in the NE with middle-upper 80s in the central sections
and around 90 across the south/southwestern sections.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Hot weather expected through early next week...

A warm front will be pushing north across the region at the
beginning of the long term. Aloft a strong ridge will build in from
the south and remain in place through Sunday morning. It will then
begin to break down a bit Monday into Tuesday as a weak front
approaches from the northwest.

Thursday into Thursday night we will see another round of storms as
the front continues its push northward. Most of the area could see
storms but the best chance will be across southern Indiana and
north/east central KY. Some of the storms could be strong to
marginally severe across this area. There is some uncertainty still
in how strong the storms will be given previous multiple rounds of
storms and uncertainty in the position of the warm front. If they do
develop, gusty winds and hail would be the main concerns.

As the ridge builds in through this weekend the areas with the
storms chances will continue to push northeast leaving areas in the
southwest dry. By the end of the weekend into early next week, rain
chances decrease, so will keep the forecast dry Sunday night into
Monday.

The bigger story for the end of the week into early next week will
be the heat. As the ridge builds in temperatures will be on the
rise. From Friday through Monday high temperatures will range from
the lower to mid 90s, with the potential for upper 90s if the dry
conditions can persist over the southwest. Combined with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will rise into the
upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main challenges in this TAF cycle include convective impacts this
evening (mainly BWG and SDF) and overnight fog potential (mainly BWG
and LEX).

Convection over central Indiana and western Kentucky has struggled
to get organized due to strong capping at 800-750mb. If the storms
west of BWG hold together, and if anything manages to develop
upstream of SDF, most likely time of impact would be 01-04Z. Will
still include a low-confidence mention of VCTS, but that is quite
marginal.

Low levels will remain quite moist overnight, and surface gradient
is still fairly sloppy, which would support some fog potential.
Winds just off the deck look a bit stronger tonight with 15-20 kt at
975mb. Expect this to keep the boundary layer just mixy enough that
fog will not be as extensive as last night, but will carry fairly
brief TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak at BWG and LEX.

Winds during the daytime on Wednesday will come around to nearly due
west, but remain just under 10 kt. Expect VFR conditions with
scattered diurnal cu.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......AMS
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 200425
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1225 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1215 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

A strong thunderstorm continues to traverse central KY early this
morning.  This cell contains numerous lightning strikes and very
heavy rainfall.  This cell continues to show up-ticks in updraft
cores and the latest was strong enough to prompt a t-storm warning.
1 inch hail and/or damaging winds are expected.  Numerous tree
branches/limbs have been reported down near Leitchfield with pea
size hail.  This cell looks to be on the southwest side of a small
MCV that has developed over central KY.  Will need to keep a close
eye on this complex as it moves east through central KY over the
next few hours.  Furthermore, additional weak storms are developing
over northern KY and southern IN early this morning in an
environment with plentiful elevated instability and modest wind
shear.

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Convection over central Indiana is struggling to get organized, and
storms over western Kentucky pretty much fizzled over the Pennyrile
region as they ran into a lot more convective inhibition. Mid-level
wave still has yet to cross the area, and might get some help from a
modest 20 kt southwesterly low-level jet that is expected to
develop. Overall trend is to lower POPs overnight, now tapering from
a 40 POP over southern Indiana to 20 POP south of the Western
Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways. However, even that seems generous,
and the window for any strong/severe storms may be closing as well.

At this time will start to nudge POPs downward, and continue to
monitor trends another hour or so before trying to tone down the HWO
too much.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Somewhat of a complicated and low confidence forecast in the near
term.  Currently, partly to mostly sunny skies were noted across the
forecast area.  Temperatures ranged from the lower to middle 80s in
the Bluegrass and central locations to the upper 80s over the far
southwestern areas near Bowling Green.  Insolation is near its
maximum and highs for the day will likely occur very shortly.

Satellite and regional radar composites show a band of convection
working in from the west.  This is ahead of a mid-level wave
rotating around a large closed 500 hPa center well to our north. A
remnant MCV can be seen in the satellite imagery out near St. Louis
and will work eastward into Indiana this afternoon.  As the
afternoon wears on, expect convective inhibition to decrease out
ahead of the approaching MCV.  This should result in a marked uptick
in convective activity to our west which will spread eastward.  The
activity will likely decrease in intensity somewhat as it outruns
the instability axis to the west and also starts to feel the
influence of the loss of daytime heating.

With this said, feel that high PoPs are justified out west of
Interstate 65 later this afternoon and evening.  This afternoon`s
convection is likely to be strong to severe with damaging winds and
large hail being the primary severe weather threats.  However,
expect wind damage to become the primary threat as the line moves on
off to the east this evening/tonight.  Will carry PoPs into the
east, but slightly later than in previous forecasts.  Generally
expect convection to be largely diminished after midnight.
Temperatures this evening will cool back into the upper 70s to the
lower 80s...with overnight lows cooling back into the lower 70s.
We`ll also be on close watch for the reformation of fog tonight.
Overall, current indications suggest it will not be as widespread as
this morning...but it could be locally dense in some locations.

For Wednesday/Wednesday night, expect another day of diurnally
driven convection with an enhancement during the late
afternoon/evening hours as another mid-level wave approaches the
region.  Convection on Wednesday still looks to be generally
scattered in nature, so plan on continuing scattered coverage at
this time.  Instability will be on the increase during the afternoon
hours, so some strong to severe convection can not be ruled out once
again.  Mid-level shear is only forecast to be around 30-35kts, so
organized convection looks likely with multicelluar clusters moving
through the region posing a threat of wind damage.  Still plan on
cutting temperatures a bit as most model guidance is still
exhibiting a warm bias.  Highs on Wednesday will warm into the
middle 80s in the NE with middle-upper 80s in the central sections
and around 90 across the south/southwestern sections.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Hot weather expected through early next week...

A warm front will be pushing north across the region at the
beginning of the long term. Aloft a strong ridge will build in from
the south and remain in place through Sunday morning. It will then
begin to break down a bit Monday into Tuesday as a weak front
approaches from the northwest.

Thursday into Thursday night we will see another round of storms as
the front continues its push northward. Most of the area could see
storms but the best chance will be across southern Indiana and
north/east central KY. Some of the storms could be strong to
marginally severe across this area. There is some uncertainty still
in how strong the storms will be given previous multiple rounds of
storms and uncertainty in the position of the warm front. If they do
develop, gusty winds and hail would be the main concerns.

As the ridge builds in through this weekend the areas with the
storms chances will continue to push northeast leaving areas in the
southwest dry. By the end of the weekend into early next week, rain
chances decrease, so will keep the forecast dry Sunday night into
Monday.

The bigger story for the end of the week into early next week will
be the heat. As the ridge builds in temperatures will be on the
rise. From Friday through Monday high temperatures will range from
the lower to mid 90s, with the potential for upper 90s if the dry
conditions can persist over the southwest. Combined with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will rise into the
upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main challenges in this TAF cycle include convective impacts this
evening (mainly BWG and SDF) and overnight fog potential (mainly BWG
and LEX).

Convection over central Indiana and western Kentucky has struggled
to get organized due to strong capping at 800-750mb. If the storms
west of BWG hold together, and if anything manages to develop
upstream of SDF, most likely time of impact would be 01-04Z. Will
still include a low-confidence mention of VCTS, but that is quite
marginal.

Low levels will remain quite moist overnight, and surface gradient
is still fairly sloppy, which would support some fog potential.
Winds just off the deck look a bit stronger tonight with 15-20 kt at
975mb. Expect this to keep the boundary layer just mixy enough that
fog will not be as extensive as last night, but will carry fairly
brief TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak at BWG and LEX.

Winds during the daytime on Wednesday will come around to nearly due
west, but remain just under 10 kt. Expect VFR conditions with
scattered diurnal cu.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......AMS
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200027
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
827 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Convection over central Indiana is struggling to get organized, and
storms over western Kentucky pretty much fizzled over the Pennyrile
region as they ran into a lot more convective inhibition. Mid-level
wave still has yet to cross the area, and might get some help from a
modest 20 kt southwesterly low-level jet that is expected to
develop. Overall trend is to lower POPs overnight, now tapering from
a 40 POP over southern Indiana to 20 POP south of the Western
Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways. However, even that seems generous,
and the window for any strong/severe storms may be closing as well.

At this time will start to nudge POPs downward, and continue to
monitor trends another hour or so before trying to tone down the HWO
too much.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Somewhat of a complicated and low confidence forecast in the near
term.  Currently, partly to mostly sunny skies were noted across the
forecast area.  Temperatures ranged from the lower to middle 80s in
the Bluegrass and central locations to the upper 80s over the far
southwestern areas near Bowling Green.  Insolation is near its
maximum and highs for the day will likely occur very shortly.

Satellite and regional radar composites show a band of convection
working in from the west.  This is ahead of a mid-level wave
rotating around a large closed 500 hPa center well to our north. A
remnant MCV can be seen in the satellite imagery out near St. Louis
and will work eastward into Indiana this afternoon.  As the
afternoon wears on, expect convective inhibition to decrease out
ahead of the approaching MCV.  This should result in a marked uptick
in convective activity to our west which will spread eastward.  The
activity will likely decrease in intensity somewhat as it outruns
the instability axis to the west and also starts to feel the
influence of the loss of daytime heating.

With this said, feel that high PoPs are justified out west of
Interstate 65 later this afternoon and evening.  This afternoon`s
convection is likely to be strong to severe with damaging winds and
large hail being the primary severe weather threats.  However,
expect wind damage to become the primary threat as the line moves on
off to the east this evening/tonight.  Will carry PoPs into the
east, but slightly later than in previous forecasts.  Generally
expect convection to be largely diminished after midnight.
Temperatures this evening will cool back into the upper 70s to the
lower 80s...with overnight lows cooling back into the lower 70s.
We`ll also be on close watch for the reformation of fog tonight.
Overall, current indications suggest it will not be as widespread as
this morning...but it could be locally dense in some locations.

For Wednesday/Wednesday night, expect another day of diurnally
driven convection with an enhancement during the late
afternoon/evening hours as another mid-level wave approaches the
region.  Convection on Wednesday still looks to be generally
scattered in nature, so plan on continuing scattered coverage at
this time.  Instability will be on the increase during the afternoon
hours, so some strong to severe convection can not be ruled out once
again.  Mid-level shear is only forecast to be around 30-35kts, so
organized convection looks likely with multicelluar clusters moving
through the region posing a threat of wind damage.  Still plan on
cutting temperatures a bit as most model guidance is still
exhibiting a warm bias.  Highs on Wednesday will warm into the
middle 80s in the NE with middle-upper 80s in the central sections
and around 90 across the south/southwestern sections.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Hot weather expected through early next week...

A warm front will be pushing north across the region at the
beginning of the long term. Aloft a strong ridge will build in from
the south and remain in place through Sunday morning. It will then
begin to break down a bit Monday into Tuesday as a weak front
approaches from the northwest.

Thursday into Thursday night we will see another round of storms as
the front continues its push northward. Most of the area could see
storms but the best chance will be across southern Indiana and
north/east central KY. Some of the storms could be strong to
marginally severe across this area. There is some uncertainty still
in how strong the storms will be given previous multiple rounds of
storms and uncertainty in the position of the warm front. If they do
develop, gusty winds and hail would be the main concerns.

As the ridge builds in through this weekend the areas with the
storms chances will continue to push northeast leaving areas in the
southwest dry. By the end of the weekend into early next week, rain
chances decrease, so will keep the forecast dry Sunday night into
Monday.

The bigger story for the end of the week into early next week will
be the heat. As the ridge builds in temperatures will be on the
rise. From Friday through Monday high temperatures will range from
the lower to mid 90s, with the potential for upper 90s if the dry
conditions can persist over the southwest. Combined with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will rise into the
upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main challenges in this TAF cycle include convective impacts this
evening (mainly BWG and SDF) and overnight fog potential (mainly BWG
and LEX).

Convection over central Indiana and western Kentucky has struggled
to get organized due to strong capping at 800-750mb. If the storms
west of BWG hold together, and if anything manages to develop
upstream of SDF, most likely time of impact would be 01-04Z. Will
still include a low-confidence mention of VCTS, but that is quite
marginal.

Low levels will remain quite moist overnight, and surface gradient
is still fairly sloppy, which would support some fog potential.
Winds just off the deck look a bit stronger tonight with 15-20 kt at
975mb. Expect this to keep the boundary layer just mixy enough that
fog will not be as extensive as last night, but will carry fairly
brief TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak at BWG and LEX.

Winds during the daytime on Wednesday will come around to nearly due
west, but remain just under 10 kt. Expect VFR conditions with
scattered diurnal cu.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200027
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
827 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Convection over central Indiana is struggling to get organized, and
storms over western Kentucky pretty much fizzled over the Pennyrile
region as they ran into a lot more convective inhibition. Mid-level
wave still has yet to cross the area, and might get some help from a
modest 20 kt southwesterly low-level jet that is expected to
develop. Overall trend is to lower POPs overnight, now tapering from
a 40 POP over southern Indiana to 20 POP south of the Western
Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways. However, even that seems generous,
and the window for any strong/severe storms may be closing as well.

At this time will start to nudge POPs downward, and continue to
monitor trends another hour or so before trying to tone down the HWO
too much.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Somewhat of a complicated and low confidence forecast in the near
term.  Currently, partly to mostly sunny skies were noted across the
forecast area.  Temperatures ranged from the lower to middle 80s in
the Bluegrass and central locations to the upper 80s over the far
southwestern areas near Bowling Green.  Insolation is near its
maximum and highs for the day will likely occur very shortly.

Satellite and regional radar composites show a band of convection
working in from the west.  This is ahead of a mid-level wave
rotating around a large closed 500 hPa center well to our north. A
remnant MCV can be seen in the satellite imagery out near St. Louis
and will work eastward into Indiana this afternoon.  As the
afternoon wears on, expect convective inhibition to decrease out
ahead of the approaching MCV.  This should result in a marked uptick
in convective activity to our west which will spread eastward.  The
activity will likely decrease in intensity somewhat as it outruns
the instability axis to the west and also starts to feel the
influence of the loss of daytime heating.

With this said, feel that high PoPs are justified out west of
Interstate 65 later this afternoon and evening.  This afternoon`s
convection is likely to be strong to severe with damaging winds and
large hail being the primary severe weather threats.  However,
expect wind damage to become the primary threat as the line moves on
off to the east this evening/tonight.  Will carry PoPs into the
east, but slightly later than in previous forecasts.  Generally
expect convection to be largely diminished after midnight.
Temperatures this evening will cool back into the upper 70s to the
lower 80s...with overnight lows cooling back into the lower 70s.
We`ll also be on close watch for the reformation of fog tonight.
Overall, current indications suggest it will not be as widespread as
this morning...but it could be locally dense in some locations.

For Wednesday/Wednesday night, expect another day of diurnally
driven convection with an enhancement during the late
afternoon/evening hours as another mid-level wave approaches the
region.  Convection on Wednesday still looks to be generally
scattered in nature, so plan on continuing scattered coverage at
this time.  Instability will be on the increase during the afternoon
hours, so some strong to severe convection can not be ruled out once
again.  Mid-level shear is only forecast to be around 30-35kts, so
organized convection looks likely with multicelluar clusters moving
through the region posing a threat of wind damage.  Still plan on
cutting temperatures a bit as most model guidance is still
exhibiting a warm bias.  Highs on Wednesday will warm into the
middle 80s in the NE with middle-upper 80s in the central sections
and around 90 across the south/southwestern sections.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Hot weather expected through early next week...

A warm front will be pushing north across the region at the
beginning of the long term. Aloft a strong ridge will build in from
the south and remain in place through Sunday morning. It will then
begin to break down a bit Monday into Tuesday as a weak front
approaches from the northwest.

Thursday into Thursday night we will see another round of storms as
the front continues its push northward. Most of the area could see
storms but the best chance will be across southern Indiana and
north/east central KY. Some of the storms could be strong to
marginally severe across this area. There is some uncertainty still
in how strong the storms will be given previous multiple rounds of
storms and uncertainty in the position of the warm front. If they do
develop, gusty winds and hail would be the main concerns.

As the ridge builds in through this weekend the areas with the
storms chances will continue to push northeast leaving areas in the
southwest dry. By the end of the weekend into early next week, rain
chances decrease, so will keep the forecast dry Sunday night into
Monday.

The bigger story for the end of the week into early next week will
be the heat. As the ridge builds in temperatures will be on the
rise. From Friday through Monday high temperatures will range from
the lower to mid 90s, with the potential for upper 90s if the dry
conditions can persist over the southwest. Combined with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will rise into the
upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main challenges in this TAF cycle include convective impacts this
evening (mainly BWG and SDF) and overnight fog potential (mainly BWG
and LEX).

Convection over central Indiana and western Kentucky has struggled
to get organized due to strong capping at 800-750mb. If the storms
west of BWG hold together, and if anything manages to develop
upstream of SDF, most likely time of impact would be 01-04Z. Will
still include a low-confidence mention of VCTS, but that is quite
marginal.

Low levels will remain quite moist overnight, and surface gradient
is still fairly sloppy, which would support some fog potential.
Winds just off the deck look a bit stronger tonight with 15-20 kt at
975mb. Expect this to keep the boundary layer just mixy enough that
fog will not be as extensive as last night, but will carry fairly
brief TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak at BWG and LEX.

Winds during the daytime on Wednesday will come around to nearly due
west, but remain just under 10 kt. Expect VFR conditions with
scattered diurnal cu.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 192323
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
723 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Somewhat of a complicated and low confidence forecast in the near
term.  Currently, partly to mostly sunny skies were noted across the
forecast area.  Temperatures ranged from the lower to middle 80s in
the Bluegrass and central locations to the upper 80s over the far
southwestern areas near Bowling Green.  Insolation is near its
maximum and highs for the day will likely occur very shortly.

Satellite and regional radar composites show a band of convection
working in from the west.  This is ahead of a mid-level wave
rotating around a large closed 500 hPa center well to our north. A
remnant MCV can be seen in the satellite imagery out near St. Louis
and will work eastward into Indiana this afternoon.  As the
afternoon wears on, expect convective inhibition to decrease out
ahead of the approaching MCV.  This should result in a marked uptick
in convective activity to our west which will spread eastward.  The
activity will likely decrease in intensity somewhat as it outruns
the instability axis to the west and also starts to feel the
influence of the loss of daytime heating.

With this said, feel that high PoPs are justified out west of
Interstate 65 later this afternoon and evening.  This afternoon`s
convection is likely to be strong to severe with damaging winds and
large hail being the primary severe weather threats.  However,
expect wind damage to become the primary threat as the line moves on
off to the east this evening/tonight.  Will carry PoPs into the
east, but slightly later than in previous forecasts.  Generally
expect convection to be largely diminished after midnight.
Temperatures this evening will cool back into the upper 70s to the
lower 80s...with overnight lows cooling back into the lower 70s.
We`ll also be on close watch for the reformation of fog tonight.
Overall, current indications suggest it will not be as widespread as
this morning...but it could be locally dense in some locations.

For Wednesday/Wednesday night, expect another day of diurnally
driven convection with an enhancement during the late
afternoon/evening hours as another mid-level wave approaches the
region.  Convection on Wednesday still looks to be generally
scattered in nature, so plan on continuing scattered coverage at
this time.  Instability will be on the increase during the afternoon
hours, so some strong to severe convection can not be ruled out once
again.  Mid-level shear is only forecast to be around 30-35kts, so
organized convection looks likely with multicelluar clusters moving
through the region posing a threat of wind damage.  Still plan on
cutting temperatures a bit as most model guidance is still
exhibiting a warm bias.  Highs on Wednesday will warm into the
middle 80s in the NE with middle-upper 80s in the central sections
and around 90 across the south/southwestern sections.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Hot weather expected through early next week...

A warm front will be pushing north across the region at the
beginning of the long term. Aloft a strong ridge will build in from
the south and remain in place through Sunday morning. It will then
begin to break down a bit Monday into Tuesday as a weak front
approaches from the northwest.

Thursday into Thursday night we will see another round of storms as
the front continues its push northward. Most of the area could see
storms but the best chance will be across southern Indiana and
north/east central KY. Some of the storms could be strong to
marginally severe across this area. There is some uncertainty still
in how strong the storms will be given previous multiple rounds of
storms and uncertainty in the position of the warm front. If they do
develop, gusty winds and hail would be the main concerns.

As the ridge builds in through this weekend the areas with the
storms chances will continue to push northeast leaving areas in the
southwest dry. By the end of the weekend into early next week, rain
chances decrease, so will keep the forecast dry Sunday night into
Monday.

The bigger story for the end of the week into early next week will
be the heat. As the ridge builds in temperatures will be on the
rise. From Friday through Monday high temperatures will range from
the lower to mid 90s, with the potential for upper 90s if the dry
conditions can persist over the southwest. Combined with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will rise into the
upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main challenges in this TAF cycle include convective impacts this
evening (mainly BWG and SDF) and overnight fog potential (mainly BWG
and LEX).

Convection over central Indiana and western Kentucky has struggled
to get organized due to strong capping at 800-750mb. If the storms
west of BWG hold together, and if anything manages to develop
upstream of SDF, most likely time of impact would be 01-04Z. Will
still include a low-confidence mention of VCTS, but that is quite
marginal.

Low levels will remain quite moist overnight, and surface gradient
is still fairly sloppy, which would support some fog potential.
Winds just off the deck look a bit stronger tonight with 15-20 kt at
975mb. Expect this to keep the boundary layer just mixy enough that
fog will not be as extensive as last night, but will carry fairly
brief TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak at BWG and LEX.

Winds during the daytime on Wednesday will come around to nearly due
west, but remain just under 10 kt. Expect VFR conditions with
scattered diurnal cu.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191935
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Somewhat of a complicated and low confidence forecast in the near
term.  Currently, partly to mostly sunny skies were noted across the
forecast area.  Temperatures ranged from the lower to middle 80s in
the Bluegrass and central locations to the upper 80s over the far
southwestern areas near Bowling Green.  Insolation is near its
maximum and highs for the day will likely occur very shortly.

Satellite and regional radar composites show a band of convection
working in from the west.  This is ahead of a mid-level wave
rotating around a large closed 500 hPa center well to our north. A
remnant MCV can be seen in the satellite imagery out near St. Louis
and will work eastward into Indiana this afternoon.  As the
afternoon wears on, expect convective inhibition to decrease out
ahead of the approaching MCV.  This should result in a marked uptick
in convective activity to our west which will spread eastward.  The
activity will likely decrease in intensity somewhat as it outruns
the instability axis to the west and also starts to feel the
influence of the loss of daytime heating.

With this said, feel that high PoPs are justified out west of
Interstate 65 later this afternoon and evening.  This afternoon`s
convection is likely to be strong to severe with damaging winds and
large hail being the primary severe weather threats.  However,
expect wind damage to become the primary threat as the line moves on
off to the east this evening/tonight.  Will carry PoPs into the
east, but slightly later than in previous forecasts.  Generally
expect convection to be largely diminished after midnight.
Temperatures this evening will cool back into the upper 70s to the
lower 80s...with overnight lows cooling back into the lower 70s.
We`ll also be on close watch for the reformation of fog tonight.
Overall, current indications suggest it will not be as widespread as
this morning...but it could be locally dense in some locations.

For Wednesday/Wednesday night, expect another day of diurnally
driven convection with an enhancement during the late
afternoon/evening hours as another mid-level wave approaches the
region.  Convection on Wednesday still looks to be generally
scattered in nature, so plan on continuing scattered coverage at
this time.  Instability will be on the increase during the afternoon
hours, so some strong to severe convection can not be ruled out once
again.  Mid-level shear is only forecast to be around 30-35kts, so
organized convection looks likely with multicelluar clusters moving
through the region posing a threat of wind damage.  Still plan on
cutting temperatures a bit as most model guidance is still
exhibiting a warm bias.  Highs on Wednesday will warm into the
middle 80s in the NE with middle-upper 80s in the central sections
and around 90 across the south/southwestern sections.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Hot weather expected through early next week...

A warm front will be pushing north across the region at the
beginning of the long term. Aloft a strong ridge will build in from
the south and remain in place through Sunday morning. It will then
begin to break down a bit Monday into Tuesday as a weak front
approaches from the northwest.

Thursday into Thursday night we will see another round of storms as
the front continues its push northward. Most of the area could see
storms but the best chance will be across southern Indiana and
north/east central KY. Some of the storms could be strong to
marginally severe across this area. There is some uncertainty still
in how strong the storms will be given previous multiple rounds of
storms and uncertainty in the position of the warm front. If they do
develop, gusty winds and hail would be the main concerns.

As the ridge builds in through this weekend the areas with the
storms chances will continue to push northeast leaving areas in the
southwest dry. By the end of the weekend into early next week, rain
chances decrease, so will keep the forecast dry Sunday night into
Monday.

The bigger story for the end of the week into early next week will
be the heat. As the ridge builds in temperatures will be on the
rise. From Friday through Monday high temperatures will range from
the lower to mid 90s, with the potential for upper 90s if the dry
conditions can persist over the southwest. Combined with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will rise into the
upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the afternoon
and evening hours.  Main forecast challenge remains centered on
convective chances late this afternoon and evening.  The high
resolution models suggest that storms will develop along the
southern flank of a eastward moving mid-level wave swinging through
the Ohio Valley.  This flank of storms looks to develop out over
southern IL this afternoon and then push east-southeast through
southern Indiana and west-central KY.  Initially capping will limit
convection this afternoon but as it weakens, instability will be
quite high across the region.  Overall forecast confidence on the
convective evolution is fairly low.  Based on the high resolution
forecasts, it would appear that KBWG would see the highest chances
of storms late this afternoon/eve.  Thus, have enough confidence to
go with at least VCTS in the BWG TAF for now...but will hold off at
KSDF and KLEX.  Any storms will quickly die off tonight with the
loss of heating.  Light winds and mostly clear skies will likely
lead to patchy dense fog developing once again...especially at KLEX
and KBWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191935
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Somewhat of a complicated and low confidence forecast in the near
term.  Currently, partly to mostly sunny skies were noted across the
forecast area.  Temperatures ranged from the lower to middle 80s in
the Bluegrass and central locations to the upper 80s over the far
southwestern areas near Bowling Green.  Insolation is near its
maximum and highs for the day will likely occur very shortly.

Satellite and regional radar composites show a band of convection
working in from the west.  This is ahead of a mid-level wave
rotating around a large closed 500 hPa center well to our north. A
remnant MCV can be seen in the satellite imagery out near St. Louis
and will work eastward into Indiana this afternoon.  As the
afternoon wears on, expect convective inhibition to decrease out
ahead of the approaching MCV.  This should result in a marked uptick
in convective activity to our west which will spread eastward.  The
activity will likely decrease in intensity somewhat as it outruns
the instability axis to the west and also starts to feel the
influence of the loss of daytime heating.

With this said, feel that high PoPs are justified out west of
Interstate 65 later this afternoon and evening.  This afternoon`s
convection is likely to be strong to severe with damaging winds and
large hail being the primary severe weather threats.  However,
expect wind damage to become the primary threat as the line moves on
off to the east this evening/tonight.  Will carry PoPs into the
east, but slightly later than in previous forecasts.  Generally
expect convection to be largely diminished after midnight.
Temperatures this evening will cool back into the upper 70s to the
lower 80s...with overnight lows cooling back into the lower 70s.
We`ll also be on close watch for the reformation of fog tonight.
Overall, current indications suggest it will not be as widespread as
this morning...but it could be locally dense in some locations.

For Wednesday/Wednesday night, expect another day of diurnally
driven convection with an enhancement during the late
afternoon/evening hours as another mid-level wave approaches the
region.  Convection on Wednesday still looks to be generally
scattered in nature, so plan on continuing scattered coverage at
this time.  Instability will be on the increase during the afternoon
hours, so some strong to severe convection can not be ruled out once
again.  Mid-level shear is only forecast to be around 30-35kts, so
organized convection looks likely with multicelluar clusters moving
through the region posing a threat of wind damage.  Still plan on
cutting temperatures a bit as most model guidance is still
exhibiting a warm bias.  Highs on Wednesday will warm into the
middle 80s in the NE with middle-upper 80s in the central sections
and around 90 across the south/southwestern sections.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Hot weather expected through early next week...

A warm front will be pushing north across the region at the
beginning of the long term. Aloft a strong ridge will build in from
the south and remain in place through Sunday morning. It will then
begin to break down a bit Monday into Tuesday as a weak front
approaches from the northwest.

Thursday into Thursday night we will see another round of storms as
the front continues its push northward. Most of the area could see
storms but the best chance will be across southern Indiana and
north/east central KY. Some of the storms could be strong to
marginally severe across this area. There is some uncertainty still
in how strong the storms will be given previous multiple rounds of
storms and uncertainty in the position of the warm front. If they do
develop, gusty winds and hail would be the main concerns.

As the ridge builds in through this weekend the areas with the
storms chances will continue to push northeast leaving areas in the
southwest dry. By the end of the weekend into early next week, rain
chances decrease, so will keep the forecast dry Sunday night into
Monday.

The bigger story for the end of the week into early next week will
be the heat. As the ridge builds in temperatures will be on the
rise. From Friday through Monday high temperatures will range from
the lower to mid 90s, with the potential for upper 90s if the dry
conditions can persist over the southwest. Combined with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will rise into the
upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the afternoon
and evening hours.  Main forecast challenge remains centered on
convective chances late this afternoon and evening.  The high
resolution models suggest that storms will develop along the
southern flank of a eastward moving mid-level wave swinging through
the Ohio Valley.  This flank of storms looks to develop out over
southern IL this afternoon and then push east-southeast through
southern Indiana and west-central KY.  Initially capping will limit
convection this afternoon but as it weakens, instability will be
quite high across the region.  Overall forecast confidence on the
convective evolution is fairly low.  Based on the high resolution
forecasts, it would appear that KBWG would see the highest chances
of storms late this afternoon/eve.  Thus, have enough confidence to
go with at least VCTS in the BWG TAF for now...but will hold off at
KSDF and KLEX.  Any storms will quickly die off tonight with the
loss of heating.  Light winds and mostly clear skies will likely
lead to patchy dense fog developing once again...especially at KLEX
and KBWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 191729
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
129 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Fog is continuing to mix out across the region.  Locally reduced
visibilities will continue for the next few hours until insolation
gets mixing going.  Once the fog mixes out, then partly to mostly
sunny skies will be seen across the region.  Temperatures are
expected to take off and warm through the lower-middle 80s.
Afternoon highs in the lower-middle 80s in the east still look
good.  Middle to upper 80s out toward the I-65 corridor are still
supported.  Warmest readings will be down across our southwest
sections toward KBWG where readings will top out near 90 degrees.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Currently through mid-morning:
Fog will remain the primary weather hazard through sunrise before
burning off by mid-morning. Plenty of low-level moisture, thanks to
recent rains and a warm, moist airmass in place, light to calm
winds, and only some mid- to upper-level clouds streaming by has
allowed for areas of fog to take over. Look for temperatures to
remain steady and in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees with
matching dewpoints.

This afternoon through tonight:
Deterministic models are having a difficult time keying in on the
mesoscale evolution of convection throughout much of the short-term.
Have attempted to compromise between the high-res guidance,
suggesting a broken line of storms developing across IL by
mid-afternoon and diving southeastward, dissipating as it crosses
the forecast area this evening, and some of the lower-res models,
holding off on developing convection until later tonight, hinting at
a possible MCS tracking through, affecting the western half of the
area. This compromise leads to a forecast of focusing chance PoPs
across most of the forecast area late this afternoon through late
this evening and slight chance after midnight through Wednesday
morning. This lines up with a vort max rotating through, allowing
for a focus of convection. The caveat for potentially bumping PoPs
up in future updates for the overnight hours is the ramping up of
the low-level jet and the upper trough axis traversing through,
helping to continue convection long after the loss of assistance
from daytime heating.

Highs today will reach the mid to upper 80s and with the moist
airmass locked in, dewpoints will deviate little from the 70 degree
mark, only ranging +/- a few degree points. Lows will mimic those of
this morning, ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Wednesday:
Models have sped up the timing of the upper trough moving through to
earlier in the day Wednesday, as compared to guidance from 18/00Z.
However, shear parameters, steep lapse rates, continued low-level
moisture transport across the region, and excellent instability all
point toward any convection that develops having the potential to
become strong. Uncertainty exists for the possibility of any early
morning convection leaving behind cloud debris, and how much
dynamical support will be in place. Bottom line is that the
short-term period is riddled with multiple waves crossing the
region, prompting the possibility of convection throughout much of
the period, and leaving uncertainty in specifics given the lack of a
decent handle on the mesoscale features.

Better confidence exists in the high temperature forecast for
Wednesday, although cloud cover again throws a wrench into things.
Looks to be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday, ranging from the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Heat is on the Way...

We`ll remain in an active NW flow through Thursday evening with
several rounds of sct-num showers and storms possible.  Wednesday
evening we could see a round of strong to possibly severe storms
with gusty winds and hail near a warm front.  However storms
will be declining in strength throughout the late evening hours.
Storms Wed night will still pose a heavy rain threat throughout the
overnight hours with PWATs in the 1.8-2 inch range.

Thursday/Thurs evening we`ll continue to see rounds of showers and
storms although strength and exact organization is uncertain due to
several factors including a strengthening ridge building in from the
west, warm front position pushing farther north, and clouds from
previous convective complexes.  At this point, some strong storms
look possible with at least heavy rain Thu/Thu night.  The potential
is there for strong to severe storms but too many negating factors
stand in the way at this point.

The ridge will continue building in from the south through the
weekend.  This will limit convection to mainly southern IN and
northern/eastern KY for Friday.  Then look for a transition to more
diurnal type t-storms most numerous near the periphery of the ridge
for the weekend and early next week.  Some of these storms could be
strong but no organized severe complexes look apparent attm.

The bigger story for the end of this week through early next week
will be the long awaited arrival of typical summer temperatures.
The strong ridge will bring an airmass with h85 temps in the 22-24
degree C range.  Although antecedent wet conditions with lush green
vegetation will limit our max temps some as previous forecaster
noted, think that high temps will solidly reach the low to mid 90s
for Fri-Mon with heat indices topping 100 degrees especially west of
I-65.  Will need to watch this period for possible heat index/air
quality products.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the afternoon
and evening hours.  Main forecast challenge remains centered on
convective chances late this afternoon and evening.  The high
resolution models suggest that storms will develop along the
southern flank of a eastward moving mid-level wave swinging through
the Ohio Valley.  This flank of storms looks to develop out over
southern IL this afternoon and then push east-southeast through
southern Indiana and west-central KY.  Initially capping will limit
convection this afternoon but as it weakens, instability will be
quite high across the region.  Overall forecast confidence on the
convective evolution is fairly low.  Based on the high resolution
forecasts, it would appear that KBWG would see the highest chances
of storms late this afternoon/eve.  Thus, have enough confidence to
go with at least VCTS in the BWG TAF for now...but will hold off at
KSDF and KLEX.  Any storms will quickly die off tonight with the
loss of heating.  Light winds and mostly clear skies will likely
lead to patchy dense fog developing once again...especially at KLEX
and KBWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......MJ







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