Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KLMK 021707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1155 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Opted to extend the Flash Flood Watch northward into southern
Indiana and the remainder of central Kentucky. Stalled boundary
interacting with a very moist air mass and combined with subtle
northwest flow disturbances will result in scattered to numerous
showers/storms at times through Friday. PWATs are expected to remain
between 1.5 and 2.0 inches and storm motions have been relatively
slow. This, combined with low FFG values across the area, suggests
flash flooding is possible across the entire area.

Updated at 940 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms are mainly
confined east of I-65, closer to the I-75 corridor of the Bluegrass
region, as of mid-morning. In its wake, there is a relative lull
back to the west. Surface analysis shows an area of low pressure
across southwest Missouri with a stalled boundary stretching east
into southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Visible satellite shows
a pocket of clearing as well across southwest Kentucky. Lots of
mesoscale features to be the focus for additional development later
this afternoon. With PWATs remaining in th 1.5 to 2.0 inch range,
this boundary, differential heating and any afternoon instability in
a generally uncapped environment will support scattered showers,
heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may train,
backbuild and overall be slow moving. Main hazard is heavy rain and
flash flooding.

Updated flash flood guidance incorporating rainfall through 8 am
shows much of south-central KY is around 1 inch in 1 hour (or less),
so current flash flood watch looks good. Further north, pockets of
low FFG (Dubois, Orange, and Crawford IN) exist but overall guidance
is 2-3 inches/hour.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy Rainfall Across Central and Southern Kentucky thru
Morning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently sitting WNW-ESE
across our CWA with deep moisture pooling south and west of it. It
is not expected to move a whole lot through the day, meanwhile a
higher precipitable water airmass (> 2") will continue to move in. A
complex of showers and storms has organized over MO and southern IL
over the past few hours ahdead of an upper disturbance embedded in
the NW flow. This complex will steadily push east toward our CWA,
arriving in our west around 5 AM EDT. Expect widespread rainfall,
with pockets of very heavy rainfall, to push east through the
morning across our southern CWA. Be careful through the morning
commute!

In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep
the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is across southern KY where
heaviest rainfall is expected to fall (1-2", locally higher).
Rainfall amounts should taper further north as you near the I-64
corridor. Had been concerned about our far NW given the amount of
rain that fell earlier this evening, however think this area will
only see scattered shower activity through today being north of the
boundary.

The main batch of showers and thunderstorms exits our east by 11
AM/Noon EDT, with a relative lull in coverage through early and mid
afternoon. Scattered showers will then have the potential to
redevelop mid to late afternoon, mainly across KY. Given the lack of
insolation, this may be overdone by current model solutions so will
rely more on hi-res output, which puts less coverage this evening
into tonight.

Another disturbance will dive through the NW flow aloft later
tonight and into tomorrow, which will drag an associated surface low
south of our CWA. The end result will help to pull the stalled
synoptic boundary still sitting over our CWA through as a cool front
through the day on Friday. As a result, only expect scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms mainly across our south from
later tonight through Friday.

High temperatures will struggle today under rainfall and cloudy
skies. Will go with max readings in the 74-79 range. Lows will
mostly range in the 65-70 range tonight. Highs Friday will be
similar to today, in the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Pattern remains fairly unsettled for most of the next week. No
single day appears to be a washout, but there is also no
identifiable dry period either.

Best precip chances Fri night through Monday will be across south
central Kentucky, as shortwave upper ridging takes hold over the
Great Lakes, and a bubble of surface high pressure tries to nose
into the Ohio Valley from the north.

Better coverage and organization of storms is expected by Tuesday or
Wednesday with the cold front trailing off a fairly vigorous upper
trof passing through the Great Lakes. Better instability and better
dynamics could support some stronger storms, but that remains a
low-confidence forecast at this time.

Temps through the period will run near or slightly below climo by
day, and near or above climo by night, as abundant clouds and
moisture will limit diurnal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Afternoon destabilization ahead of a surface low combined with a
stalled frontal boundary across the area will support an uptick in
showers/storms through the early evening hours. Highest chances are
centered around 21-00z timeframe...and BWG to LEX looks to have the
greatest chance of seeing aviation restrictions.

As precipitation wanes this evening, attention turns to fog
potential. Light/variable winds tonight combined with the moisture
and recent rainfall leads to higher confidence for periods of MVFR
to IFR fog potentially. Guidance hits LEX/BWG...so have trended TAFs
toward that possibility. By Friday morning, another weather system
could bring more showers/storms to the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......ZT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 021707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1155 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Opted to extend the Flash Flood Watch northward into southern
Indiana and the remainder of central Kentucky. Stalled boundary
interacting with a very moist air mass and combined with subtle
northwest flow disturbances will result in scattered to numerous
showers/storms at times through Friday. PWATs are expected to remain
between 1.5 and 2.0 inches and storm motions have been relatively
slow. This, combined with low FFG values across the area, suggests
flash flooding is possible across the entire area.

Updated at 940 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms are mainly
confined east of I-65, closer to the I-75 corridor of the Bluegrass
region, as of mid-morning. In its wake, there is a relative lull
back to the west. Surface analysis shows an area of low pressure
across southwest Missouri with a stalled boundary stretching east
into southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Visible satellite shows
a pocket of clearing as well across southwest Kentucky. Lots of
mesoscale features to be the focus for additional development later
this afternoon. With PWATs remaining in th 1.5 to 2.0 inch range,
this boundary, differential heating and any afternoon instability in
a generally uncapped environment will support scattered showers,
heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may train,
backbuild and overall be slow moving. Main hazard is heavy rain and
flash flooding.

Updated flash flood guidance incorporating rainfall through 8 am
shows much of south-central KY is around 1 inch in 1 hour (or less),
so current flash flood watch looks good. Further north, pockets of
low FFG (Dubois, Orange, and Crawford IN) exist but overall guidance
is 2-3 inches/hour.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy Rainfall Across Central and Southern Kentucky thru
Morning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently sitting WNW-ESE
across our CWA with deep moisture pooling south and west of it. It
is not expected to move a whole lot through the day, meanwhile a
higher precipitable water airmass (> 2") will continue to move in. A
complex of showers and storms has organized over MO and southern IL
over the past few hours ahdead of an upper disturbance embedded in
the NW flow. This complex will steadily push east toward our CWA,
arriving in our west around 5 AM EDT. Expect widespread rainfall,
with pockets of very heavy rainfall, to push east through the
morning across our southern CWA. Be careful through the morning
commute!

In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep
the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is across southern KY where
heaviest rainfall is expected to fall (1-2", locally higher).
Rainfall amounts should taper further north as you near the I-64
corridor. Had been concerned about our far NW given the amount of
rain that fell earlier this evening, however think this area will
only see scattered shower activity through today being north of the
boundary.

The main batch of showers and thunderstorms exits our east by 11
AM/Noon EDT, with a relative lull in coverage through early and mid
afternoon. Scattered showers will then have the potential to
redevelop mid to late afternoon, mainly across KY. Given the lack of
insolation, this may be overdone by current model solutions so will
rely more on hi-res output, which puts less coverage this evening
into tonight.

Another disturbance will dive through the NW flow aloft later
tonight and into tomorrow, which will drag an associated surface low
south of our CWA. The end result will help to pull the stalled
synoptic boundary still sitting over our CWA through as a cool front
through the day on Friday. As a result, only expect scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms mainly across our south from
later tonight through Friday.

High temperatures will struggle today under rainfall and cloudy
skies. Will go with max readings in the 74-79 range. Lows will
mostly range in the 65-70 range tonight. Highs Friday will be
similar to today, in the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Pattern remains fairly unsettled for most of the next week. No
single day appears to be a washout, but there is also no
identifiable dry period either.

Best precip chances Fri night through Monday will be across south
central Kentucky, as shortwave upper ridging takes hold over the
Great Lakes, and a bubble of surface high pressure tries to nose
into the Ohio Valley from the north.

Better coverage and organization of storms is expected by Tuesday or
Wednesday with the cold front trailing off a fairly vigorous upper
trof passing through the Great Lakes. Better instability and better
dynamics could support some stronger storms, but that remains a
low-confidence forecast at this time.

Temps through the period will run near or slightly below climo by
day, and near or above climo by night, as abundant clouds and
moisture will limit diurnal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Afternoon destabilization ahead of a surface low combined with a
stalled frontal boundary across the area will support an uptick in
showers/storms through the early evening hours. Highest chances are
centered around 21-00z timeframe...and BWG to LEX looks to have the
greatest chance of seeing aviation restrictions.

As precipitation wanes this evening, attention turns to fog
potential. Light/variable winds tonight combined with the moisture
and recent rainfall leads to higher confidence for periods of MVFR
to IFR fog potentially. Guidance hits LEX/BWG...so have trended TAFs
toward that possibility. By Friday morning, another weather system
could bring more showers/storms to the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 021707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1155 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Opted to extend the Flash Flood Watch northward into southern
Indiana and the remainder of central Kentucky. Stalled boundary
interacting with a very moist air mass and combined with subtle
northwest flow disturbances will result in scattered to numerous
showers/storms at times through Friday. PWATs are expected to remain
between 1.5 and 2.0 inches and storm motions have been relatively
slow. This, combined with low FFG values across the area, suggests
flash flooding is possible across the entire area.

Updated at 940 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms are mainly
confined east of I-65, closer to the I-75 corridor of the Bluegrass
region, as of mid-morning. In its wake, there is a relative lull
back to the west. Surface analysis shows an area of low pressure
across southwest Missouri with a stalled boundary stretching east
into southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Visible satellite shows
a pocket of clearing as well across southwest Kentucky. Lots of
mesoscale features to be the focus for additional development later
this afternoon. With PWATs remaining in th 1.5 to 2.0 inch range,
this boundary, differential heating and any afternoon instability in
a generally uncapped environment will support scattered showers,
heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may train,
backbuild and overall be slow moving. Main hazard is heavy rain and
flash flooding.

Updated flash flood guidance incorporating rainfall through 8 am
shows much of south-central KY is around 1 inch in 1 hour (or less),
so current flash flood watch looks good. Further north, pockets of
low FFG (Dubois, Orange, and Crawford IN) exist but overall guidance
is 2-3 inches/hour.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy Rainfall Across Central and Southern Kentucky thru
Morning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently sitting WNW-ESE
across our CWA with deep moisture pooling south and west of it. It
is not expected to move a whole lot through the day, meanwhile a
higher precipitable water airmass (> 2") will continue to move in. A
complex of showers and storms has organized over MO and southern IL
over the past few hours ahdead of an upper disturbance embedded in
the NW flow. This complex will steadily push east toward our CWA,
arriving in our west around 5 AM EDT. Expect widespread rainfall,
with pockets of very heavy rainfall, to push east through the
morning across our southern CWA. Be careful through the morning
commute!

In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep
the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is across southern KY where
heaviest rainfall is expected to fall (1-2", locally higher).
Rainfall amounts should taper further north as you near the I-64
corridor. Had been concerned about our far NW given the amount of
rain that fell earlier this evening, however think this area will
only see scattered shower activity through today being north of the
boundary.

The main batch of showers and thunderstorms exits our east by 11
AM/Noon EDT, with a relative lull in coverage through early and mid
afternoon. Scattered showers will then have the potential to
redevelop mid to late afternoon, mainly across KY. Given the lack of
insolation, this may be overdone by current model solutions so will
rely more on hi-res output, which puts less coverage this evening
into tonight.

Another disturbance will dive through the NW flow aloft later
tonight and into tomorrow, which will drag an associated surface low
south of our CWA. The end result will help to pull the stalled
synoptic boundary still sitting over our CWA through as a cool front
through the day on Friday. As a result, only expect scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms mainly across our south from
later tonight through Friday.

High temperatures will struggle today under rainfall and cloudy
skies. Will go with max readings in the 74-79 range. Lows will
mostly range in the 65-70 range tonight. Highs Friday will be
similar to today, in the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Pattern remains fairly unsettled for most of the next week. No
single day appears to be a washout, but there is also no
identifiable dry period either.

Best precip chances Fri night through Monday will be across south
central Kentucky, as shortwave upper ridging takes hold over the
Great Lakes, and a bubble of surface high pressure tries to nose
into the Ohio Valley from the north.

Better coverage and organization of storms is expected by Tuesday or
Wednesday with the cold front trailing off a fairly vigorous upper
trof passing through the Great Lakes. Better instability and better
dynamics could support some stronger storms, but that remains a
low-confidence forecast at this time.

Temps through the period will run near or slightly below climo by
day, and near or above climo by night, as abundant clouds and
moisture will limit diurnal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Afternoon destabilization ahead of a surface low combined with a
stalled frontal boundary across the area will support an uptick in
showers/storms through the early evening hours. Highest chances are
centered around 21-00z timeframe...and BWG to LEX looks to have the
greatest chance of seeing aviation restrictions.

As precipitation wanes this evening, attention turns to fog
potential. Light/variable winds tonight combined with the moisture
and recent rainfall leads to higher confidence for periods of MVFR
to IFR fog potentially. Guidance hits LEX/BWG...so have trended TAFs
toward that possibility. By Friday morning, another weather system
could bring more showers/storms to the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......ZT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 021707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1155 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Opted to extend the Flash Flood Watch northward into southern
Indiana and the remainder of central Kentucky. Stalled boundary
interacting with a very moist air mass and combined with subtle
northwest flow disturbances will result in scattered to numerous
showers/storms at times through Friday. PWATs are expected to remain
between 1.5 and 2.0 inches and storm motions have been relatively
slow. This, combined with low FFG values across the area, suggests
flash flooding is possible across the entire area.

Updated at 940 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms are mainly
confined east of I-65, closer to the I-75 corridor of the Bluegrass
region, as of mid-morning. In its wake, there is a relative lull
back to the west. Surface analysis shows an area of low pressure
across southwest Missouri with a stalled boundary stretching east
into southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Visible satellite shows
a pocket of clearing as well across southwest Kentucky. Lots of
mesoscale features to be the focus for additional development later
this afternoon. With PWATs remaining in th 1.5 to 2.0 inch range,
this boundary, differential heating and any afternoon instability in
a generally uncapped environment will support scattered showers,
heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may train,
backbuild and overall be slow moving. Main hazard is heavy rain and
flash flooding.

Updated flash flood guidance incorporating rainfall through 8 am
shows much of south-central KY is around 1 inch in 1 hour (or less),
so current flash flood watch looks good. Further north, pockets of
low FFG (Dubois, Orange, and Crawford IN) exist but overall guidance
is 2-3 inches/hour.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy Rainfall Across Central and Southern Kentucky thru
Morning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently sitting WNW-ESE
across our CWA with deep moisture pooling south and west of it. It
is not expected to move a whole lot through the day, meanwhile a
higher precipitable water airmass (> 2") will continue to move in. A
complex of showers and storms has organized over MO and southern IL
over the past few hours ahdead of an upper disturbance embedded in
the NW flow. This complex will steadily push east toward our CWA,
arriving in our west around 5 AM EDT. Expect widespread rainfall,
with pockets of very heavy rainfall, to push east through the
morning across our southern CWA. Be careful through the morning
commute!

In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep
the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is across southern KY where
heaviest rainfall is expected to fall (1-2", locally higher).
Rainfall amounts should taper further north as you near the I-64
corridor. Had been concerned about our far NW given the amount of
rain that fell earlier this evening, however think this area will
only see scattered shower activity through today being north of the
boundary.

The main batch of showers and thunderstorms exits our east by 11
AM/Noon EDT, with a relative lull in coverage through early and mid
afternoon. Scattered showers will then have the potential to
redevelop mid to late afternoon, mainly across KY. Given the lack of
insolation, this may be overdone by current model solutions so will
rely more on hi-res output, which puts less coverage this evening
into tonight.

Another disturbance will dive through the NW flow aloft later
tonight and into tomorrow, which will drag an associated surface low
south of our CWA. The end result will help to pull the stalled
synoptic boundary still sitting over our CWA through as a cool front
through the day on Friday. As a result, only expect scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms mainly across our south from
later tonight through Friday.

High temperatures will struggle today under rainfall and cloudy
skies. Will go with max readings in the 74-79 range. Lows will
mostly range in the 65-70 range tonight. Highs Friday will be
similar to today, in the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Pattern remains fairly unsettled for most of the next week. No
single day appears to be a washout, but there is also no
identifiable dry period either.

Best precip chances Fri night through Monday will be across south
central Kentucky, as shortwave upper ridging takes hold over the
Great Lakes, and a bubble of surface high pressure tries to nose
into the Ohio Valley from the north.

Better coverage and organization of storms is expected by Tuesday or
Wednesday with the cold front trailing off a fairly vigorous upper
trof passing through the Great Lakes. Better instability and better
dynamics could support some stronger storms, but that remains a
low-confidence forecast at this time.

Temps through the period will run near or slightly below climo by
day, and near or above climo by night, as abundant clouds and
moisture will limit diurnal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Afternoon destabilization ahead of a surface low combined with a
stalled frontal boundary across the area will support an uptick in
showers/storms through the early evening hours. Highest chances are
centered around 21-00z timeframe...and BWG to LEX looks to have the
greatest chance of seeing aviation restrictions.

As precipitation wanes this evening, attention turns to fog
potential. Light/variable winds tonight combined with the moisture
and recent rainfall leads to higher confidence for periods of MVFR
to IFR fog potentially. Guidance hits LEX/BWG...so have trended TAFs
toward that possibility. By Friday morning, another weather system
could bring more showers/storms to the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 021559
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1159 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1155 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Opted to extend the Flash Flood Watch northward into southern
Indiana and the remainder of central Kentucky. Stalled boundary
interacting with a very moist air mass and combined with subtle
northwest flow disturbances will result in scattered to numerous
showers/storms at times through Friday. PWATs are expected to remain
between 1.5 and 2.0 inches and storm motions have been relatively
slow. This, combined with low FFG values across the area, suggests
flash flooding is possible across the entire area.

Updated at 940 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms are mainly
confined east of I-65, closer to the I-75 corridor of the Bluegrass
region, as of mid-morning. In its wake, there is a relative lull
back to the west. Surface analysis shows an area of low pressure
across southwest Missouri with a stalled boundary stretching east
into southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Visible satellite shows
a pocket of clearing as well across southwest Kentucky. Lots of
mesoscale features to be the focus for additional development later
this afternoon. With PWATs remaining in th 1.5 to 2.0 inch range,
this boundary, differential heating and any afternoon instability in
a generally uncapped environment will support scattered showers,
heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may train,
backbuild and overall be slow moving. Main hazard is heavy rain and
flash flooding.

Updated flash flood guidance incorporating rainfall through 8 am
shows much of south-central KY is around 1 inch in 1 hour (or less),
so current flash flood watch looks good. Further north, pockets of
low FFG (Dubois, Orange, and Crawford IN) exist but overall guidance
is 2-3 inches/hour.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy Rainfall Across Central and Southern Kentucky thru
Morning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently sitting WNW-ESE
across our CWA with deep moisture pooling south and west of it. It
is not expected to move a whole lot through the day, meanwhile a
higher precipitable water airmass (> 2") will continue to move in. A
complex of showers and storms has organized over MO and southern IL
over the past few hours ahdead of an upper disturbance embedded in
the NW flow. This complex will steadily push east toward our CWA,
arriving in our west around 5 AM EDT. Expect widespread rainfall,
with pockets of very heavy rainfall, to push east through the
morning across our southern CWA. Be careful through the morning
commute!

In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep
the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is across southern KY where
heaviest rainfall is expected to fall (1-2", locally higher).
Rainfall amounts should taper further north as you near the I-64
corridor. Had been concerned about our far NW given the amount of
rain that fell earlier this evening, however think this area will
only see scattered shower activity through today being north of the
boundary.

The main batch of showers and thunderstorms exits our east by 11
AM/Noon EDT, with a relative lull in coverage through early and mid
afternoon. Scattered showers will then have the potential to
redevelop mid to late afternoon, mainly across KY. Given the lack of
insolation, this may be overdone by current model solutions so will
rely more on hi-res output, which puts less coverage this evening
into tonight.

Another disturbance will dive through the NW flow aloft later
tonight and into tomorrow, which will drag an associated surface low
south of our CWA. The end result will help to pull the stalled
synoptic boundary still sitting over our CWA through as a cool front
through the day on Friday. As a result, only expect scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms mainly across our south from
later tonight through Friday.

High temperatures will struggle today under rainfall and cloudy
skies. Will go with max readings in the 74-79 range. Lows will
mostly range in the 65-70 range tonight. Highs Friday will be
similar to today, in the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Pattern remains fairly unsettled for most of the next week. No
single day appears to be a washout, but there is also no
identifiable dry period either.

Best precip chances Fri night through Monday will be across south
central Kentucky, as shortwave upper ridging takes hold over the
Great Lakes, and a bubble of surface high pressure tries to nose
into the Ohio Valley from the north.

Better coverage and organization of storms is expected by Tuesday or
Wednesday with the cold front trailing off a fairly vigorous upper
trof passing through the Great Lakes. Better instability and better
dynamics could support some stronger storms, but that remains a
low-confidence forecast at this time.

Temps through the period will run near or slightly below climo by
day, and near or above climo by night, as abundant clouds and
moisture will limit diurnal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

A very unsettled period of weather looks to affect all TAF sites as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary sits near SDF/LEX, and several
upper disturbances pass through NW flow aloft. Conditions should
mainly be VFR outside of showers/storms through the period, although
there will be times of MVFR ceilings. Expect low MVFR or IFR
visibilities at times during thunderstorms.

BWG will continue to see steady rain, with pockets of heavy rain and
thunderstorms, over the next few hours before the first wave exits
to the east. After a relative lull through the late morning and
early afternoon, scattered showers and t-storms will again be
possible from late afternoon into the evening. Precipitation should
diminish in coverage as we get into the overnight, however fog will
become a concern as surface winds become light and variable with the
passage of a surface low.

SDF will be in a precipitation lull at the time of the new TAF
issuance, however do expect to still see scattered to numerous
showers and a few storms through the morning hours. After a relative
lull through the early afternoon, scattered showers and storms will
again be possible for the late afternoon/evening. They diminish
around Midnight, with fog becoming a concern toward dawn under light
and variable winds.

LEX will be similar to SDF in that they will start out in a lull,
however should see activity pick up through the mid and late
morning. A lull arrives in the afternoon, before showers and a few
storms pick up toward evening. Fog becomes a concern at LEX through
the overnight hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 021559
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1159 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1155 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Opted to extend the Flash Flood Watch northward into southern
Indiana and the remainder of central Kentucky. Stalled boundary
interacting with a very moist air mass and combined with subtle
northwest flow disturbances will result in scattered to numerous
showers/storms at times through Friday. PWATs are expected to remain
between 1.5 and 2.0 inches and storm motions have been relatively
slow. This, combined with low FFG values across the area, suggests
flash flooding is possible across the entire area.

Updated at 940 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms are mainly
confined east of I-65, closer to the I-75 corridor of the Bluegrass
region, as of mid-morning. In its wake, there is a relative lull
back to the west. Surface analysis shows an area of low pressure
across southwest Missouri with a stalled boundary stretching east
into southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Visible satellite shows
a pocket of clearing as well across southwest Kentucky. Lots of
mesoscale features to be the focus for additional development later
this afternoon. With PWATs remaining in th 1.5 to 2.0 inch range,
this boundary, differential heating and any afternoon instability in
a generally uncapped environment will support scattered showers,
heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may train,
backbuild and overall be slow moving. Main hazard is heavy rain and
flash flooding.

Updated flash flood guidance incorporating rainfall through 8 am
shows much of south-central KY is around 1 inch in 1 hour (or less),
so current flash flood watch looks good. Further north, pockets of
low FFG (Dubois, Orange, and Crawford IN) exist but overall guidance
is 2-3 inches/hour.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy Rainfall Across Central and Southern Kentucky thru
Morning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently sitting WNW-ESE
across our CWA with deep moisture pooling south and west of it. It
is not expected to move a whole lot through the day, meanwhile a
higher precipitable water airmass (> 2") will continue to move in. A
complex of showers and storms has organized over MO and southern IL
over the past few hours ahdead of an upper disturbance embedded in
the NW flow. This complex will steadily push east toward our CWA,
arriving in our west around 5 AM EDT. Expect widespread rainfall,
with pockets of very heavy rainfall, to push east through the
morning across our southern CWA. Be careful through the morning
commute!

In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep
the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is across southern KY where
heaviest rainfall is expected to fall (1-2", locally higher).
Rainfall amounts should taper further north as you near the I-64
corridor. Had been concerned about our far NW given the amount of
rain that fell earlier this evening, however think this area will
only see scattered shower activity through today being north of the
boundary.

The main batch of showers and thunderstorms exits our east by 11
AM/Noon EDT, with a relative lull in coverage through early and mid
afternoon. Scattered showers will then have the potential to
redevelop mid to late afternoon, mainly across KY. Given the lack of
insolation, this may be overdone by current model solutions so will
rely more on hi-res output, which puts less coverage this evening
into tonight.

Another disturbance will dive through the NW flow aloft later
tonight and into tomorrow, which will drag an associated surface low
south of our CWA. The end result will help to pull the stalled
synoptic boundary still sitting over our CWA through as a cool front
through the day on Friday. As a result, only expect scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms mainly across our south from
later tonight through Friday.

High temperatures will struggle today under rainfall and cloudy
skies. Will go with max readings in the 74-79 range. Lows will
mostly range in the 65-70 range tonight. Highs Friday will be
similar to today, in the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Pattern remains fairly unsettled for most of the next week. No
single day appears to be a washout, but there is also no
identifiable dry period either.

Best precip chances Fri night through Monday will be across south
central Kentucky, as shortwave upper ridging takes hold over the
Great Lakes, and a bubble of surface high pressure tries to nose
into the Ohio Valley from the north.

Better coverage and organization of storms is expected by Tuesday or
Wednesday with the cold front trailing off a fairly vigorous upper
trof passing through the Great Lakes. Better instability and better
dynamics could support some stronger storms, but that remains a
low-confidence forecast at this time.

Temps through the period will run near or slightly below climo by
day, and near or above climo by night, as abundant clouds and
moisture will limit diurnal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

A very unsettled period of weather looks to affect all TAF sites as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary sits near SDF/LEX, and several
upper disturbances pass through NW flow aloft. Conditions should
mainly be VFR outside of showers/storms through the period, although
there will be times of MVFR ceilings. Expect low MVFR or IFR
visibilities at times during thunderstorms.

BWG will continue to see steady rain, with pockets of heavy rain and
thunderstorms, over the next few hours before the first wave exits
to the east. After a relative lull through the late morning and
early afternoon, scattered showers and t-storms will again be
possible from late afternoon into the evening. Precipitation should
diminish in coverage as we get into the overnight, however fog will
become a concern as surface winds become light and variable with the
passage of a surface low.

SDF will be in a precipitation lull at the time of the new TAF
issuance, however do expect to still see scattered to numerous
showers and a few storms through the morning hours. After a relative
lull through the early afternoon, scattered showers and storms will
again be possible for the late afternoon/evening. They diminish
around Midnight, with fog becoming a concern toward dawn under light
and variable winds.

LEX will be similar to SDF in that they will start out in a lull,
however should see activity pick up through the mid and late
morning. A lull arrives in the afternoon, before showers and a few
storms pick up toward evening. Fog becomes a concern at LEX through
the overnight hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 021342
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
942 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 940 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms are mainly
confined east of I-65, closer to the I-75 corridor of the Bluegrass
region, as of mid-morning. In its wake, there is a relative lull
back to the west. Surface analysis shows an area of low pressure
across southwest Missouri with a stalled boundary stretching east
into southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Visible satellite shows
a pocket of clearing as well across southwest Kentucky. Lots of
mesoscale features to be the focus for additional development later
this afternoon. With PWATs remaining in th 1.5 to 2.0 inch range,
this boundary, differential heating and any afternoon instability in
a generally uncapped environment will support scattered showers,
heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may train,
backbuild and overall be slow moving. Main hazard is heavy rain and
flash flooding.

Updated flash flood guidance incorporating rainfall through 8 am
shows much of south-central KY is around 1 inch in 1 hour (or less),
so current flash flood watch looks good. Further north, pockets of
low FFG (Dubois, Orange, and Crawford IN) exist but overall guidance
is 2-3 inches/hour.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy Rainfall Across Central and Southern Kentucky thru
Morning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently sitting WNW-ESE
across our CWA with deep moisture pooling south and west of it. It
is not expected to move a whole lot through the day, meanwhile a
higher precipitable water airmass (> 2") will continue to move in. A
complex of showers and storms has organized over MO and southern IL
over the past few hours ahdead of an upper disturbance embedded in
the NW flow. This complex will steadily push east toward our CWA,
arriving in our west around 5 AM EDT. Expect widespread rainfall,
with pockets of very heavy rainfall, to push east through the
morning across our southern CWA. Be careful through the morning
commute!

In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep
the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is across southern KY where
heaviest rainfall is expected to fall (1-2", locally higher).
Rainfall amounts should taper further north as you near the I-64
corridor. Had been concerned about our far NW given the amount of
rain that fell earlier this evening, however think this area will
only see scattered shower activity through today being north of the
boundary.

The main batch of showers and thunderstorms exits our east by 11
AM/Noon EDT, with a relative lull in coverage through early and mid
afternoon. Scattered showers will then have the potential to
redevelop mid to late afternoon, mainly across KY. Given the lack of
insolation, this may be overdone by current model solutions so will
rely more on hi-res output, which puts less coverage this evening
into tonight.

Another disturbance will dive through the NW flow aloft later
tonight and into tomorrow, which will drag an associated surface low
south of our CWA. The end result will help to pull the stalled
synoptic boundary still sitting over our CWA through as a cool front
through the day on Friday. As a result, only expect scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms mainly across our south from
later tonight through Friday.

High temperatures will struggle today under rainfall and cloudy
skies. Will go with max readings in the 74-79 range. Lows will
mostly range in the 65-70 range tonight. Highs Friday will be
similar to today, in the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Pattern remains fairly unsettled for most of the next week. No
single day appears to be a washout, but there is also no
identifiable dry period either.

Best precip chances Fri night through Monday will be across south
central Kentucky, as shortwave upper ridging takes hold over the
Great Lakes, and a bubble of surface high pressure tries to nose
into the Ohio Valley from the north.

Better coverage and organization of storms is expected by Tuesday or
Wednesday with the cold front trailing off a fairly vigorous upper
trof passing through the Great Lakes. Better instability and better
dynamics could support some stronger storms, but that remains a
low-confidence forecast at this time.

Temps through the period will run near or slightly below climo by
day, and near or above climo by night, as abundant clouds and
moisture will limit diurnal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

A very unsettled period of weather looks to affect all TAF sites as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary sits near SDF/LEX, and several
upper disturbances pass through NW flow aloft. Conditions should
mainly be VFR outside of showers/storms through the period, although
there will be times of MVFR ceilings. Expect low MVFR or IFR
visibilities at times during thunderstorms.

BWG will continue to see steady rain, with pockets of heavy rain and
thunderstorms, over the next few hours before the first wave exits
to the east. After a relative lull through the late morning and
early afternoon, scattered showers and t-storms will again be
possible from late afternoon into the evening. Precipitation should
diminish in coverage as we get into the overnight, however fog will
become a concern as surface winds become light and variable with the
passage of a surface low.

SDF will be in a precipitation lull at the time of the new TAF
issuance, however do expect to still see scattered to numerous
showers and a few storms through the morning hours. After a relative
lull through the early afternoon, scattered showers and storms will
again be possible for the late afternoon/evening. They diminish
around Midnight, with fog becoming a concern toward dawn under light
and variable winds.

LEX will be similar to SDF in that they will start out in a lull,
however should see activity pick up through the mid and late
morning. A lull arrives in the afternoon, before showers and a few
storms pick up toward evening. Fog becomes a concern at LEX through
the overnight hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 021046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy Rainfall Across Central and Southern Kentucky thru
Morning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently sitting WNW-ESE
across our CWA with deep moisture pooling south and west of it. It
is not expected to move a whole lot through the day, meanwhile a
higher precipitable water airmass (> 2") will continue to move in. A
complex of showers and storms has organized over MO and southern IL
over the past few hours ahdead of an upper disturbance embedded in
the NW flow. This complex will steadily push east toward our CWA,
arriving in our west around 5 AM EDT. Expect widespread rainfall,
with pockets of very heavy rainfall, to push east through the
morning across our southern CWA. Be careful through the morning
commute!

In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep
the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is across southern KY where
heaviest rainfall is expected to fall (1-2", locally higher).
Rainfall amounts should taper further north as you near the I-64
corridor. Had been concerned about our far NW given the amount of
rain that fell earlier this evening, however think this area will
only see scattered shower activity through today being north of the
boundary.

The main batch of showers and thunderstorms exits our east by 11
AM/Noon EDT, with a relative lull in coverage through early and mid
afternoon. Scattered showers will then have the potential to
redevelop mid to late afternoon, mainly across KY. Given the lack of
insolation, this may be overdone by current model solutions so will
rely more on hi-res output, which puts less coverage this evening
into tonight.

Another disturbance will dive through the NW flow aloft later
tonight and into tomorrow, which will drag an associated surface low
south of our CWA. The end result will help to pull the stalled
synoptic boundary still sitting over our CWA through as a cool front
through the day on Friday. As a result, only expect scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms mainly across our south from
later tonight through Friday.

High temperatures will struggle today under rainfall and cloudy
skies. Will go with max readings in the 74-79 range. Lows will
mostly range in the 65-70 range tonight. Highs Friday will be
similar to today, in the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Pattern remains fairly unsettled for most of the next week. No
single day appears to be a washout, but there is also no
identifiable dry period either.

Best precip chances Fri night through Monday will be across south
central Kentucky, as shortwave upper ridging takes hold over the
Great Lakes, and a bubble of surface high pressure tries to nose
into the Ohio Valley from the north.

Better coverage and organization of storms is expected by Tuesday or
Wednesday with the cold front trailing off a fairly vigorous upper
trof passing through the Great Lakes. Better instability and better
dynamics could support some stronger storms, but that remains a
low-confidence forecast at this time.

Temps through the period will run near or slightly below climo by
day, and near or above climo by night, as abundant clouds and
moisture will limit diurnal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

A very unsettled period of weather looks to affect all TAF sites as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary sits near SDF/LEX, and several
upper disturbances pass through NW flow aloft. Conditions should
mainly be VFR outside of showers/storms through the period, although
there will be times of MVFR ceilings. Expect low MVFR or IFR
visibilities at times during thunderstorms.

BWG will continue to see steady rain, with pockets of heavy rain and
thunderstorms, over the next few hours before the first wave exits
to the east. After a relative lull through the late morning and
early afternoon, scattered showers and t-storms will again be
possible from late afternoon into the evening. Precipitation should
diminish in coverage as we get into the overnight, however fog will
become a concern as surface winds become light and variable with the
passage of a surface low.

SDF will be in a precipitation lull at the time of the new TAF
issuance, however do expect to still see scattered to numerous
showers and a few storms through the morning hours. After a relative
lull through the early afternoon, scattered showers and storms will
again be possible for the late afternoon/evening. They diminish
around Midnight, with fog becoming a concern toward dawn under light
and variable winds.

LEX will be similar to SDF in that they will start out in a lull,
however should see activity pick up through the mid and late
morning. A lull arrives in the afternoon, before showers and a few
storms pick up toward evening. Fog becomes a concern at LEX through
the overnight hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 021046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy Rainfall Across Central and Southern Kentucky thru
Morning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently sitting WNW-ESE
across our CWA with deep moisture pooling south and west of it. It
is not expected to move a whole lot through the day, meanwhile a
higher precipitable water airmass (> 2") will continue to move in. A
complex of showers and storms has organized over MO and southern IL
over the past few hours ahdead of an upper disturbance embedded in
the NW flow. This complex will steadily push east toward our CWA,
arriving in our west around 5 AM EDT. Expect widespread rainfall,
with pockets of very heavy rainfall, to push east through the
morning across our southern CWA. Be careful through the morning
commute!

In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep
the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is across southern KY where
heaviest rainfall is expected to fall (1-2", locally higher).
Rainfall amounts should taper further north as you near the I-64
corridor. Had been concerned about our far NW given the amount of
rain that fell earlier this evening, however think this area will
only see scattered shower activity through today being north of the
boundary.

The main batch of showers and thunderstorms exits our east by 11
AM/Noon EDT, with a relative lull in coverage through early and mid
afternoon. Scattered showers will then have the potential to
redevelop mid to late afternoon, mainly across KY. Given the lack of
insolation, this may be overdone by current model solutions so will
rely more on hi-res output, which puts less coverage this evening
into tonight.

Another disturbance will dive through the NW flow aloft later
tonight and into tomorrow, which will drag an associated surface low
south of our CWA. The end result will help to pull the stalled
synoptic boundary still sitting over our CWA through as a cool front
through the day on Friday. As a result, only expect scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms mainly across our south from
later tonight through Friday.

High temperatures will struggle today under rainfall and cloudy
skies. Will go with max readings in the 74-79 range. Lows will
mostly range in the 65-70 range tonight. Highs Friday will be
similar to today, in the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Pattern remains fairly unsettled for most of the next week. No
single day appears to be a washout, but there is also no
identifiable dry period either.

Best precip chances Fri night through Monday will be across south
central Kentucky, as shortwave upper ridging takes hold over the
Great Lakes, and a bubble of surface high pressure tries to nose
into the Ohio Valley from the north.

Better coverage and organization of storms is expected by Tuesday or
Wednesday with the cold front trailing off a fairly vigorous upper
trof passing through the Great Lakes. Better instability and better
dynamics could support some stronger storms, but that remains a
low-confidence forecast at this time.

Temps through the period will run near or slightly below climo by
day, and near or above climo by night, as abundant clouds and
moisture will limit diurnal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

A very unsettled period of weather looks to affect all TAF sites as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary sits near SDF/LEX, and several
upper disturbances pass through NW flow aloft. Conditions should
mainly be VFR outside of showers/storms through the period, although
there will be times of MVFR ceilings. Expect low MVFR or IFR
visibilities at times during thunderstorms.

BWG will continue to see steady rain, with pockets of heavy rain and
thunderstorms, over the next few hours before the first wave exits
to the east. After a relative lull through the late morning and
early afternoon, scattered showers and t-storms will again be
possible from late afternoon into the evening. Precipitation should
diminish in coverage as we get into the overnight, however fog will
become a concern as surface winds become light and variable with the
passage of a surface low.

SDF will be in a precipitation lull at the time of the new TAF
issuance, however do expect to still see scattered to numerous
showers and a few storms through the morning hours. After a relative
lull through the early afternoon, scattered showers and storms will
again be possible for the late afternoon/evening. They diminish
around Midnight, with fog becoming a concern toward dawn under light
and variable winds.

LEX will be similar to SDF in that they will start out in a lull,
however should see activity pick up through the mid and late
morning. A lull arrives in the afternoon, before showers and a few
storms pick up toward evening. Fog becomes a concern at LEX through
the overnight hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 021046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy Rainfall Across Central and Southern Kentucky thru
Morning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently sitting WNW-ESE
across our CWA with deep moisture pooling south and west of it. It
is not expected to move a whole lot through the day, meanwhile a
higher precipitable water airmass (> 2") will continue to move in. A
complex of showers and storms has organized over MO and southern IL
over the past few hours ahdead of an upper disturbance embedded in
the NW flow. This complex will steadily push east toward our CWA,
arriving in our west around 5 AM EDT. Expect widespread rainfall,
with pockets of very heavy rainfall, to push east through the
morning across our southern CWA. Be careful through the morning
commute!

In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep
the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is across southern KY where
heaviest rainfall is expected to fall (1-2", locally higher).
Rainfall amounts should taper further north as you near the I-64
corridor. Had been concerned about our far NW given the amount of
rain that fell earlier this evening, however think this area will
only see scattered shower activity through today being north of the
boundary.

The main batch of showers and thunderstorms exits our east by 11
AM/Noon EDT, with a relative lull in coverage through early and mid
afternoon. Scattered showers will then have the potential to
redevelop mid to late afternoon, mainly across KY. Given the lack of
insolation, this may be overdone by current model solutions so will
rely more on hi-res output, which puts less coverage this evening
into tonight.

Another disturbance will dive through the NW flow aloft later
tonight and into tomorrow, which will drag an associated surface low
south of our CWA. The end result will help to pull the stalled
synoptic boundary still sitting over our CWA through as a cool front
through the day on Friday. As a result, only expect scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms mainly across our south from
later tonight through Friday.

High temperatures will struggle today under rainfall and cloudy
skies. Will go with max readings in the 74-79 range. Lows will
mostly range in the 65-70 range tonight. Highs Friday will be
similar to today, in the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Pattern remains fairly unsettled for most of the next week. No
single day appears to be a washout, but there is also no
identifiable dry period either.

Best precip chances Fri night through Monday will be across south
central Kentucky, as shortwave upper ridging takes hold over the
Great Lakes, and a bubble of surface high pressure tries to nose
into the Ohio Valley from the north.

Better coverage and organization of storms is expected by Tuesday or
Wednesday with the cold front trailing off a fairly vigorous upper
trof passing through the Great Lakes. Better instability and better
dynamics could support some stronger storms, but that remains a
low-confidence forecast at this time.

Temps through the period will run near or slightly below climo by
day, and near or above climo by night, as abundant clouds and
moisture will limit diurnal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

A very unsettled period of weather looks to affect all TAF sites as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary sits near SDF/LEX, and several
upper disturbances pass through NW flow aloft. Conditions should
mainly be VFR outside of showers/storms through the period, although
there will be times of MVFR ceilings. Expect low MVFR or IFR
visibilities at times during thunderstorms.

BWG will continue to see steady rain, with pockets of heavy rain and
thunderstorms, over the next few hours before the first wave exits
to the east. After a relative lull through the late morning and
early afternoon, scattered showers and t-storms will again be
possible from late afternoon into the evening. Precipitation should
diminish in coverage as we get into the overnight, however fog will
become a concern as surface winds become light and variable with the
passage of a surface low.

SDF will be in a precipitation lull at the time of the new TAF
issuance, however do expect to still see scattered to numerous
showers and a few storms through the morning hours. After a relative
lull through the early afternoon, scattered showers and storms will
again be possible for the late afternoon/evening. They diminish
around Midnight, with fog becoming a concern toward dawn under light
and variable winds.

LEX will be similar to SDF in that they will start out in a lull,
however should see activity pick up through the mid and late
morning. A lull arrives in the afternoon, before showers and a few
storms pick up toward evening. Fog becomes a concern at LEX through
the overnight hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 021046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy Rainfall Across Central and Southern Kentucky thru
Morning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently sitting WNW-ESE
across our CWA with deep moisture pooling south and west of it. It
is not expected to move a whole lot through the day, meanwhile a
higher precipitable water airmass (> 2") will continue to move in. A
complex of showers and storms has organized over MO and southern IL
over the past few hours ahdead of an upper disturbance embedded in
the NW flow. This complex will steadily push east toward our CWA,
arriving in our west around 5 AM EDT. Expect widespread rainfall,
with pockets of very heavy rainfall, to push east through the
morning across our southern CWA. Be careful through the morning
commute!

In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep
the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is across southern KY where
heaviest rainfall is expected to fall (1-2", locally higher).
Rainfall amounts should taper further north as you near the I-64
corridor. Had been concerned about our far NW given the amount of
rain that fell earlier this evening, however think this area will
only see scattered shower activity through today being north of the
boundary.

The main batch of showers and thunderstorms exits our east by 11
AM/Noon EDT, with a relative lull in coverage through early and mid
afternoon. Scattered showers will then have the potential to
redevelop mid to late afternoon, mainly across KY. Given the lack of
insolation, this may be overdone by current model solutions so will
rely more on hi-res output, which puts less coverage this evening
into tonight.

Another disturbance will dive through the NW flow aloft later
tonight and into tomorrow, which will drag an associated surface low
south of our CWA. The end result will help to pull the stalled
synoptic boundary still sitting over our CWA through as a cool front
through the day on Friday. As a result, only expect scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms mainly across our south from
later tonight through Friday.

High temperatures will struggle today under rainfall and cloudy
skies. Will go with max readings in the 74-79 range. Lows will
mostly range in the 65-70 range tonight. Highs Friday will be
similar to today, in the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Pattern remains fairly unsettled for most of the next week. No
single day appears to be a washout, but there is also no
identifiable dry period either.

Best precip chances Fri night through Monday will be across south
central Kentucky, as shortwave upper ridging takes hold over the
Great Lakes, and a bubble of surface high pressure tries to nose
into the Ohio Valley from the north.

Better coverage and organization of storms is expected by Tuesday or
Wednesday with the cold front trailing off a fairly vigorous upper
trof passing through the Great Lakes. Better instability and better
dynamics could support some stronger storms, but that remains a
low-confidence forecast at this time.

Temps through the period will run near or slightly below climo by
day, and near or above climo by night, as abundant clouds and
moisture will limit diurnal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

A very unsettled period of weather looks to affect all TAF sites as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary sits near SDF/LEX, and several
upper disturbances pass through NW flow aloft. Conditions should
mainly be VFR outside of showers/storms through the period, although
there will be times of MVFR ceilings. Expect low MVFR or IFR
visibilities at times during thunderstorms.

BWG will continue to see steady rain, with pockets of heavy rain and
thunderstorms, over the next few hours before the first wave exits
to the east. After a relative lull through the late morning and
early afternoon, scattered showers and t-storms will again be
possible from late afternoon into the evening. Precipitation should
diminish in coverage as we get into the overnight, however fog will
become a concern as surface winds become light and variable with the
passage of a surface low.

SDF will be in a precipitation lull at the time of the new TAF
issuance, however do expect to still see scattered to numerous
showers and a few storms through the morning hours. After a relative
lull through the early afternoon, scattered showers and storms will
again be possible for the late afternoon/evening. They diminish
around Midnight, with fog becoming a concern toward dawn under light
and variable winds.

LEX will be similar to SDF in that they will start out in a lull,
however should see activity pick up through the mid and late
morning. A lull arrives in the afternoon, before showers and a few
storms pick up toward evening. Fog becomes a concern at LEX through
the overnight hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 020714
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy Rainfall Across Central and Southern Kentucky thru
Morning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently sitting WNW-ESE
across our CWA with deep moisture pooling south and west of it. It
is not expected to move a whole lot through the day, meanwhile a
higher precipitable water airmass (> 2") will continue to move in. A
complex of showers and storms has organized over MO and southern IL
over the past few hours ahdead of an upper disturbance embedded in
the NW flow. This complex will steadily push east toward our CWA,
arriving in our west around 5 AM EDT. Expect widespread rainfall,
with pockets of very heavy rainfall, to push east through the
morning across our southern CWA. Be careful through the morning
commute!

In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep
the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is across southern KY where
heaviest rainfall is expected to fall (1-2", locally higher).
Rainfall amounts should taper further north as you near the I-64
corridor. Had been concerned about our far NW given the amount of
rain that fell earlier this evening, however think this area will
only see scattered shower activity through today being north of the
boundary.

The main batch of showers and thunderstorms exits our east by 11
AM/Noon EDT, with a relative lull in coverage through early and mid
afternoon. Scattered showers will then have the potential to
redevelop mid to late afternoon, mainly across KY. Given the lack of
insolation, this may be overdone by current model solutions so will
rely more on hi-res output, which puts less coverage this evening
into tonight.

Another disturbance will dive through the NW flow aloft later
tonight and into tomorrow, which will drag an associated surface low
south of our CWA. The end result will help to pull the stalled
synoptic boundary still sitting over our CWA through as a cool front
through the day on Friday. As a result, only expect scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms mainly across our south from
later tonight through Friday.

High temperatures will struggle today under rainfall and cloudy
skies. Will go with max readings in the 74-79 range. Lows will
mostly range in the 65-70 range tonight. Highs Friday will be
similar to today, in the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Pattern remains fairly unsettled for most of the next week. No
single day appears to be a washout, but there is also no
identifiable dry period either.

Best precip chances Fri night through Monday will be across south
central Kentucky, as shortwave upper ridging takes hold over the
Great Lakes, and a bubble of surface high pressure tries to nose
into the Ohio Valley from the north.

Better coverage and organization of storms is expected by Tuesday or
Wednesday with the cold front trailing off a fairly vigorous upper
trof passing through the Great Lakes. Better instability and better
dynamics could support some stronger storms, but that remains a
low-confidence forecast at this time.

Temps through the period will run near or slightly below climo by
day, and near or above climo by night, as abundant clouds and
moisture will limit diurnal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

A very unsettled period of weather looks to affect all TAF sites as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary sits near SDF/LEX, and several
upper disturbances pass through NW flow aloft.

SDF will start out in MVFR SHRA with occasional dips into IFR
visibility and TSRA possible. A brief improvement is expected
between 3 and 5 AM, before another round of showers and storms
through late morning. After another midday lull, showers and storms
could then fire in the late afternoon and evening. Frontal boundary
should find its way north of the terminal with a steady south wind
outside of any t-storm outflow boundaries.

BWG should see activity pick up toward dawn with periods of SHRA and
TSRA throughout the remainder of the TAF cycle. Brief instances of
IFR visibility are certainly possible along with t-storm wind gusts.
Otherwise, expect VFR with steady south winds.

LEX will also see activity pick up over the next few hours as the
frontal boundary slowly works toward the area. Several periods off
and on shower and t-storm activity are expected through the day with
temporary IFR visibilities and t-storm wind gusts possible. Once the
frontal boundary passes, south winds should prevail outside of any
T-storm outflow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 020714
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy Rainfall Across Central and Southern Kentucky thru
Morning...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is currently sitting WNW-ESE
across our CWA with deep moisture pooling south and west of it. It
is not expected to move a whole lot through the day, meanwhile a
higher precipitable water airmass (> 2") will continue to move in. A
complex of showers and storms has organized over MO and southern IL
over the past few hours ahdead of an upper disturbance embedded in
the NW flow. This complex will steadily push east toward our CWA,
arriving in our west around 5 AM EDT. Expect widespread rainfall,
with pockets of very heavy rainfall, to push east through the
morning across our southern CWA. Be careful through the morning
commute!

In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep
the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is across southern KY where
heaviest rainfall is expected to fall (1-2", locally higher).
Rainfall amounts should taper further north as you near the I-64
corridor. Had been concerned about our far NW given the amount of
rain that fell earlier this evening, however think this area will
only see scattered shower activity through today being north of the
boundary.

The main batch of showers and thunderstorms exits our east by 11
AM/Noon EDT, with a relative lull in coverage through early and mid
afternoon. Scattered showers will then have the potential to
redevelop mid to late afternoon, mainly across KY. Given the lack of
insolation, this may be overdone by current model solutions so will
rely more on hi-res output, which puts less coverage this evening
into tonight.

Another disturbance will dive through the NW flow aloft later
tonight and into tomorrow, which will drag an associated surface low
south of our CWA. The end result will help to pull the stalled
synoptic boundary still sitting over our CWA through as a cool front
through the day on Friday. As a result, only expect scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms mainly across our south from
later tonight through Friday.

High temperatures will struggle today under rainfall and cloudy
skies. Will go with max readings in the 74-79 range. Lows will
mostly range in the 65-70 range tonight. Highs Friday will be
similar to today, in the mid and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Pattern remains fairly unsettled for most of the next week. No
single day appears to be a washout, but there is also no
identifiable dry period either.

Best precip chances Fri night through Monday will be across south
central Kentucky, as shortwave upper ridging takes hold over the
Great Lakes, and a bubble of surface high pressure tries to nose
into the Ohio Valley from the north.

Better coverage and organization of storms is expected by Tuesday or
Wednesday with the cold front trailing off a fairly vigorous upper
trof passing through the Great Lakes. Better instability and better
dynamics could support some stronger storms, but that remains a
low-confidence forecast at this time.

Temps through the period will run near or slightly below climo by
day, and near or above climo by night, as abundant clouds and
moisture will limit diurnal ranges.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

A very unsettled period of weather looks to affect all TAF sites as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary sits near SDF/LEX, and several
upper disturbances pass through NW flow aloft.

SDF will start out in MVFR SHRA with occasional dips into IFR
visibility and TSRA possible. A brief improvement is expected
between 3 and 5 AM, before another round of showers and storms
through late morning. After another midday lull, showers and storms
could then fire in the late afternoon and evening. Frontal boundary
should find its way north of the terminal with a steady south wind
outside of any t-storm outflow boundaries.

BWG should see activity pick up toward dawn with periods of SHRA and
TSRA throughout the remainder of the TAF cycle. Brief instances of
IFR visibility are certainly possible along with t-storm wind gusts.
Otherwise, expect VFR with steady south winds.

LEX will also see activity pick up over the next few hours as the
frontal boundary slowly works toward the area. Several periods off
and on shower and t-storm activity are expected through the day with
temporary IFR visibilities and t-storm wind gusts possible. Once the
frontal boundary passes, south winds should prevail outside of any
T-storm outflow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 020504
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1048 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

After evaluating the late afternoon and early evening model data and
looking at the precipitation efficiency of the current convection
that is ongoing, have coordinated with surrounding WFOs and went
ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for southern KY.  Wanted to
get this out before the late evening newscasts for good
dissemination.

The current watch focuses mainly on southern KY...however further
refinements may need to be done later on tonight as the full suite
of 00Z data comes in.  However, given the recent rains across
southern KY along with the early QPF data suggests that southern KY
looks to be the target area for heavy rainfall.

Updated products coming shortly.


Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Ongoing convection across southern KY continues to move southeast
and much of southern KY will see a brief reprieve of rainfall.
However, additional showers and storms are developing from southern
Indiana northwestward into central IL/MO.  This is likely the
beginnings of a nocturnal MCS that the model have been sensing out
for the last 12-18 hours.

Showers and storms should increase in coverage later tonight across
eastern MO/southern IL and then move into western KY.  We`re likely
to see a gradient of PoP overnight with the lesser chances across
our northeastern sections with the highest in our central (I-65
corridor) and points west.  Overall severe weather threat looks
fairly low at the moment (but certainly non-zero).  A few storms may
pulse up with hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
Greatest risk for any severe weather would generally be confined to
our southwest IN counties and our far western counties.

A greater threat is heavy rainfall with these storms.  Flash flood
guidance continues to run low for our northeastern and southeastern
counties where recent rains have really saturated things up.  The
main heavy rainfall tonight is expected to fall over areas that have
seen relatively less rainfall of late and where flash flood guidance
is a bit higher.  At this time, plan on holding off headlines at the
moment, but will continue to monitor things closely.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

A very unsettled period of weather looks to affect all TAF sites as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary sits near SDF/LEX, and several
upper disturbances pass through NW flow aloft.

SDF will start out in MVFR SHRA with occasional dips into IFR
visibility and TSRA possible. A brief improvement is expected
between 3 and 5 AM, before another round of showers and storms
through late morning. After another midday lull, showers and storms
could then fire in the late afternoon and evening. Frontal boundary
should find its way north of the terminal with a steady south wind
outside of any t-storm outflow boundaries.

BWG should see activity pick up toward dawn with periods of SHRA and
TSRA throughout the remainder of the TAF cycle. Brief instances of
IFR visibility are certainly possible along with t-storm wind gusts.
Otherwise, expect VFR with steady south winds.

LEX will also see activity pick up over the next few hours as the
frontal boundary slowly works toward the area. Several periods off
and on shower and t-storm activity are expected through the day with
temporary IFR visibilities and t-storm wind gusts possible. Once the
frontal boundary passes, south winds should prevail outside of any
T-storm outflow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 020504
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1048 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

After evaluating the late afternoon and early evening model data and
looking at the precipitation efficiency of the current convection
that is ongoing, have coordinated with surrounding WFOs and went
ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for southern KY.  Wanted to
get this out before the late evening newscasts for good
dissemination.

The current watch focuses mainly on southern KY...however further
refinements may need to be done later on tonight as the full suite
of 00Z data comes in.  However, given the recent rains across
southern KY along with the early QPF data suggests that southern KY
looks to be the target area for heavy rainfall.

Updated products coming shortly.


Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Ongoing convection across southern KY continues to move southeast
and much of southern KY will see a brief reprieve of rainfall.
However, additional showers and storms are developing from southern
Indiana northwestward into central IL/MO.  This is likely the
beginnings of a nocturnal MCS that the model have been sensing out
for the last 12-18 hours.

Showers and storms should increase in coverage later tonight across
eastern MO/southern IL and then move into western KY.  We`re likely
to see a gradient of PoP overnight with the lesser chances across
our northeastern sections with the highest in our central (I-65
corridor) and points west.  Overall severe weather threat looks
fairly low at the moment (but certainly non-zero).  A few storms may
pulse up with hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
Greatest risk for any severe weather would generally be confined to
our southwest IN counties and our far western counties.

A greater threat is heavy rainfall with these storms.  Flash flood
guidance continues to run low for our northeastern and southeastern
counties where recent rains have really saturated things up.  The
main heavy rainfall tonight is expected to fall over areas that have
seen relatively less rainfall of late and where flash flood guidance
is a bit higher.  At this time, plan on holding off headlines at the
moment, but will continue to monitor things closely.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

A very unsettled period of weather looks to affect all TAF sites as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary sits near SDF/LEX, and several
upper disturbances pass through NW flow aloft.

SDF will start out in MVFR SHRA with occasional dips into IFR
visibility and TSRA possible. A brief improvement is expected
between 3 and 5 AM, before another round of showers and storms
through late morning. After another midday lull, showers and storms
could then fire in the late afternoon and evening. Frontal boundary
should find its way north of the terminal with a steady south wind
outside of any t-storm outflow boundaries.

BWG should see activity pick up toward dawn with periods of SHRA and
TSRA throughout the remainder of the TAF cycle. Brief instances of
IFR visibility are certainly possible along with t-storm wind gusts.
Otherwise, expect VFR with steady south winds.

LEX will also see activity pick up over the next few hours as the
frontal boundary slowly works toward the area. Several periods off
and on shower and t-storm activity are expected through the day with
temporary IFR visibilities and t-storm wind gusts possible. Once the
frontal boundary passes, south winds should prevail outside of any
T-storm outflow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 020504
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1048 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

After evaluating the late afternoon and early evening model data and
looking at the precipitation efficiency of the current convection
that is ongoing, have coordinated with surrounding WFOs and went
ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for southern KY.  Wanted to
get this out before the late evening newscasts for good
dissemination.

The current watch focuses mainly on southern KY...however further
refinements may need to be done later on tonight as the full suite
of 00Z data comes in.  However, given the recent rains across
southern KY along with the early QPF data suggests that southern KY
looks to be the target area for heavy rainfall.

Updated products coming shortly.


Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Ongoing convection across southern KY continues to move southeast
and much of southern KY will see a brief reprieve of rainfall.
However, additional showers and storms are developing from southern
Indiana northwestward into central IL/MO.  This is likely the
beginnings of a nocturnal MCS that the model have been sensing out
for the last 12-18 hours.

Showers and storms should increase in coverage later tonight across
eastern MO/southern IL and then move into western KY.  We`re likely
to see a gradient of PoP overnight with the lesser chances across
our northeastern sections with the highest in our central (I-65
corridor) and points west.  Overall severe weather threat looks
fairly low at the moment (but certainly non-zero).  A few storms may
pulse up with hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
Greatest risk for any severe weather would generally be confined to
our southwest IN counties and our far western counties.

A greater threat is heavy rainfall with these storms.  Flash flood
guidance continues to run low for our northeastern and southeastern
counties where recent rains have really saturated things up.  The
main heavy rainfall tonight is expected to fall over areas that have
seen relatively less rainfall of late and where flash flood guidance
is a bit higher.  At this time, plan on holding off headlines at the
moment, but will continue to monitor things closely.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

A very unsettled period of weather looks to affect all TAF sites as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary sits near SDF/LEX, and several
upper disturbances pass through NW flow aloft.

SDF will start out in MVFR SHRA with occasional dips into IFR
visibility and TSRA possible. A brief improvement is expected
between 3 and 5 AM, before another round of showers and storms
through late morning. After another midday lull, showers and storms
could then fire in the late afternoon and evening. Frontal boundary
should find its way north of the terminal with a steady south wind
outside of any t-storm outflow boundaries.

BWG should see activity pick up toward dawn with periods of SHRA and
TSRA throughout the remainder of the TAF cycle. Brief instances of
IFR visibility are certainly possible along with t-storm wind gusts.
Otherwise, expect VFR with steady south winds.

LEX will also see activity pick up over the next few hours as the
frontal boundary slowly works toward the area. Several periods off
and on shower and t-storm activity are expected through the day with
temporary IFR visibilities and t-storm wind gusts possible. Once the
frontal boundary passes, south winds should prevail outside of any
T-storm outflow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 020504
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1048 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

After evaluating the late afternoon and early evening model data and
looking at the precipitation efficiency of the current convection
that is ongoing, have coordinated with surrounding WFOs and went
ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for southern KY.  Wanted to
get this out before the late evening newscasts for good
dissemination.

The current watch focuses mainly on southern KY...however further
refinements may need to be done later on tonight as the full suite
of 00Z data comes in.  However, given the recent rains across
southern KY along with the early QPF data suggests that southern KY
looks to be the target area for heavy rainfall.

Updated products coming shortly.


Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Ongoing convection across southern KY continues to move southeast
and much of southern KY will see a brief reprieve of rainfall.
However, additional showers and storms are developing from southern
Indiana northwestward into central IL/MO.  This is likely the
beginnings of a nocturnal MCS that the model have been sensing out
for the last 12-18 hours.

Showers and storms should increase in coverage later tonight across
eastern MO/southern IL and then move into western KY.  We`re likely
to see a gradient of PoP overnight with the lesser chances across
our northeastern sections with the highest in our central (I-65
corridor) and points west.  Overall severe weather threat looks
fairly low at the moment (but certainly non-zero).  A few storms may
pulse up with hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
Greatest risk for any severe weather would generally be confined to
our southwest IN counties and our far western counties.

A greater threat is heavy rainfall with these storms.  Flash flood
guidance continues to run low for our northeastern and southeastern
counties where recent rains have really saturated things up.  The
main heavy rainfall tonight is expected to fall over areas that have
seen relatively less rainfall of late and where flash flood guidance
is a bit higher.  At this time, plan on holding off headlines at the
moment, but will continue to monitor things closely.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015

A very unsettled period of weather looks to affect all TAF sites as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary sits near SDF/LEX, and several
upper disturbances pass through NW flow aloft.

SDF will start out in MVFR SHRA with occasional dips into IFR
visibility and TSRA possible. A brief improvement is expected
between 3 and 5 AM, before another round of showers and storms
through late morning. After another midday lull, showers and storms
could then fire in the late afternoon and evening. Frontal boundary
should find its way north of the terminal with a steady south wind
outside of any t-storm outflow boundaries.

BWG should see activity pick up toward dawn with periods of SHRA and
TSRA throughout the remainder of the TAF cycle. Brief instances of
IFR visibility are certainly possible along with t-storm wind gusts.
Otherwise, expect VFR with steady south winds.

LEX will also see activity pick up over the next few hours as the
frontal boundary slowly works toward the area. Several periods off
and on shower and t-storm activity are expected through the day with
temporary IFR visibilities and t-storm wind gusts possible. Once the
frontal boundary passes, south winds should prevail outside of any
T-storm outflow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 020249
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1049 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1048 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

After evaluating the late afternoon and early evening model data and
looking at the precipitation efficiency of the current convection
that is ongoing, have coordinated with surrounding WFOs and went
ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for southern KY.  Wanted to
get this out before the late evening newscasts for good
dissemination.

The current watch focuses mainly on southern KY...however further
refinements may need to be done later on tonight as the full suite
of 00Z data comes in.  However, given the recent rains across
southern KY along with the early QPF data suggests that southern KY
looks to be the target area for heavy rainfall.

Updated products coming shortly.


Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Ongoing convection across southern KY continues to move southeast
and much of southern KY will see a brief reprieve of rainfall.
However, additional showers and storms are developing from southern
Indiana northwestward into central IL/MO.  This is likely the
beginnings of a nocturnal MCS that the model have been sensing out
for the last 12-18 hours.

Showers and storms should increase in coverage later tonight across
eastern MO/southern IL and then move into western KY.  We`re likely
to see a gradient of PoP overnight with the lesser chances across
our northeastern sections with the highest in our central (I-65
corridor) and points west.  Overall severe weather threat looks
fairly low at the moment (but certainly non-zero).  A few storms may
pulse up with hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
Greatest risk for any severe weather would generally be confined to
our southwest IN counties and our far western counties.

A greater threat is heavy rainfall with these storms.  Flash flood
guidance continues to run low for our northeastern and southeastern
counties where recent rains have really saturated things up.  The
main heavy rainfall tonight is expected to fall over areas that have
seen relatively less rainfall of late and where flash flood guidance
is a bit higher.  At this time, plan on holding off headlines at the
moment, but will continue to monitor things closely.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Scattered convection will be seen across the region this evening
with the largest concentration mainly south and east of the
terminals.  Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase later
tonight as a mid-level and surface low pressure system push into the
region from the west.  In general, it appears that aviation weather
conditions will deteriorate late tonight as the showers and storms
come into the region.  Convection looks to arrive around 02/06-07Z
and continue through the morning hours on Thursday.  For now, have
generally gone with MVFR visibilities with showers and vicinity
thunder in all the TAF sites.  Some drops into the IFR range look
possible between 02/11-15Z.  Surface winds will remain generally out
of the southwest at 5-10kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 020249
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1049 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1048 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

After evaluating the late afternoon and early evening model data and
looking at the precipitation efficiency of the current convection
that is ongoing, have coordinated with surrounding WFOs and went
ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for southern KY.  Wanted to
get this out before the late evening newscasts for good
dissemination.

The current watch focuses mainly on southern KY...however further
refinements may need to be done later on tonight as the full suite
of 00Z data comes in.  However, given the recent rains across
southern KY along with the early QPF data suggests that southern KY
looks to be the target area for heavy rainfall.

Updated products coming shortly.


Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Ongoing convection across southern KY continues to move southeast
and much of southern KY will see a brief reprieve of rainfall.
However, additional showers and storms are developing from southern
Indiana northwestward into central IL/MO.  This is likely the
beginnings of a nocturnal MCS that the model have been sensing out
for the last 12-18 hours.

Showers and storms should increase in coverage later tonight across
eastern MO/southern IL and then move into western KY.  We`re likely
to see a gradient of PoP overnight with the lesser chances across
our northeastern sections with the highest in our central (I-65
corridor) and points west.  Overall severe weather threat looks
fairly low at the moment (but certainly non-zero).  A few storms may
pulse up with hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
Greatest risk for any severe weather would generally be confined to
our southwest IN counties and our far western counties.

A greater threat is heavy rainfall with these storms.  Flash flood
guidance continues to run low for our northeastern and southeastern
counties where recent rains have really saturated things up.  The
main heavy rainfall tonight is expected to fall over areas that have
seen relatively less rainfall of late and where flash flood guidance
is a bit higher.  At this time, plan on holding off headlines at the
moment, but will continue to monitor things closely.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Scattered convection will be seen across the region this evening
with the largest concentration mainly south and east of the
terminals.  Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase later
tonight as a mid-level and surface low pressure system push into the
region from the west.  In general, it appears that aviation weather
conditions will deteriorate late tonight as the showers and storms
come into the region.  Convection looks to arrive around 02/06-07Z
and continue through the morning hours on Thursday.  For now, have
generally gone with MVFR visibilities with showers and vicinity
thunder in all the TAF sites.  Some drops into the IFR range look
possible between 02/11-15Z.  Surface winds will remain generally out
of the southwest at 5-10kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 020249
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1049 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1048 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

After evaluating the late afternoon and early evening model data and
looking at the precipitation efficiency of the current convection
that is ongoing, have coordinated with surrounding WFOs and went
ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for southern KY.  Wanted to
get this out before the late evening newscasts for good
dissemination.

The current watch focuses mainly on southern KY...however further
refinements may need to be done later on tonight as the full suite
of 00Z data comes in.  However, given the recent rains across
southern KY along with the early QPF data suggests that southern KY
looks to be the target area for heavy rainfall.

Updated products coming shortly.


Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Ongoing convection across southern KY continues to move southeast
and much of southern KY will see a brief reprieve of rainfall.
However, additional showers and storms are developing from southern
Indiana northwestward into central IL/MO.  This is likely the
beginnings of a nocturnal MCS that the model have been sensing out
for the last 12-18 hours.

Showers and storms should increase in coverage later tonight across
eastern MO/southern IL and then move into western KY.  We`re likely
to see a gradient of PoP overnight with the lesser chances across
our northeastern sections with the highest in our central (I-65
corridor) and points west.  Overall severe weather threat looks
fairly low at the moment (but certainly non-zero).  A few storms may
pulse up with hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
Greatest risk for any severe weather would generally be confined to
our southwest IN counties and our far western counties.

A greater threat is heavy rainfall with these storms.  Flash flood
guidance continues to run low for our northeastern and southeastern
counties where recent rains have really saturated things up.  The
main heavy rainfall tonight is expected to fall over areas that have
seen relatively less rainfall of late and where flash flood guidance
is a bit higher.  At this time, plan on holding off headlines at the
moment, but will continue to monitor things closely.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Scattered convection will be seen across the region this evening
with the largest concentration mainly south and east of the
terminals.  Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase later
tonight as a mid-level and surface low pressure system push into the
region from the west.  In general, it appears that aviation weather
conditions will deteriorate late tonight as the showers and storms
come into the region.  Convection looks to arrive around 02/06-07Z
and continue through the morning hours on Thursday.  For now, have
generally gone with MVFR visibilities with showers and vicinity
thunder in all the TAF sites.  Some drops into the IFR range look
possible between 02/11-15Z.  Surface winds will remain generally out
of the southwest at 5-10kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 020202
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1002 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Ongoing convection across southern KY continues to move southeast
and much of southern KY will see a brief reprieve of rainfall.
However, additional showers and storms are developing from southern
Indiana northwestward into central IL/MO.  This is likely the
beginnings of a nocturnal MCS that the model have been sensing out
for the last 12-18 hours.

Showers and storms should increase in coverage later tonight across
eastern MO/southern IL and then move into western KY.  We`re likely
to see a gradient of PoP overnight with the lesser chances across
our northeastern sections with the highest in our central (I-65
corridor) and points west.  Overall severe weather threat looks
fairly low at the moment (but certainly non-zero).  A few storms may
pulse up with hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
Greatest risk for any severe weather would generally be confined to
our southwest IN counties and our far western counties.

A greater threat is heavy rainfall with these storms.  Flash flood
guidance continues to run low for our northeastern and southeastern
counties where recent rains have really saturated things up.  The
main heavy rainfall tonight is expected to fall over areas that have
seen relatively less rainfall of late and where flash flood guidance
is a bit higher.  At this time, plan on holding off headlines at the
moment, but will continue to monitor things closely.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Scattered convection will be seen across the region this evening
with the largest concentration mainly south and east of the
terminals.  Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase later
tonight as a mid-level and surface low pressure system push into the
region from the west.  In general, it appears that aviation weather
conditions will deteriorate late tonight as the showers and storms
come into the region.  Convection looks to arrive around 02/06-07Z
and continue through the morning hours on Thursday.  For now, have
generally gone with MVFR visibilities with showers and vicinity
thunder in all the TAF sites.  Some drops into the IFR range look
possible between 02/11-15Z.  Surface winds will remain generally out
of the southwest at 5-10kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 020202
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1002 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Ongoing convection across southern KY continues to move southeast
and much of southern KY will see a brief reprieve of rainfall.
However, additional showers and storms are developing from southern
Indiana northwestward into central IL/MO.  This is likely the
beginnings of a nocturnal MCS that the model have been sensing out
for the last 12-18 hours.

Showers and storms should increase in coverage later tonight across
eastern MO/southern IL and then move into western KY.  We`re likely
to see a gradient of PoP overnight with the lesser chances across
our northeastern sections with the highest in our central (I-65
corridor) and points west.  Overall severe weather threat looks
fairly low at the moment (but certainly non-zero).  A few storms may
pulse up with hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
Greatest risk for any severe weather would generally be confined to
our southwest IN counties and our far western counties.

A greater threat is heavy rainfall with these storms.  Flash flood
guidance continues to run low for our northeastern and southeastern
counties where recent rains have really saturated things up.  The
main heavy rainfall tonight is expected to fall over areas that have
seen relatively less rainfall of late and where flash flood guidance
is a bit higher.  At this time, plan on holding off headlines at the
moment, but will continue to monitor things closely.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Scattered convection will be seen across the region this evening
with the largest concentration mainly south and east of the
terminals.  Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase later
tonight as a mid-level and surface low pressure system push into the
region from the west.  In general, it appears that aviation weather
conditions will deteriorate late tonight as the showers and storms
come into the region.  Convection looks to arrive around 02/06-07Z
and continue through the morning hours on Thursday.  For now, have
generally gone with MVFR visibilities with showers and vicinity
thunder in all the TAF sites.  Some drops into the IFR range look
possible between 02/11-15Z.  Surface winds will remain generally out
of the southwest at 5-10kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 012329
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
729 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Scattered convection will be seen across the region this evening
with the largest concentration mainly south and east of the
terminals.  Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase later
tonight as a mid-level and surface low pressure system push into the
region from the west.  In general, it appears that aviation weather
conditions will deteriorate late tonight as the showers and storms
come into the region.  Convection looks to arrive around 02/06-07Z
and continue through the morning hours on Thursday.  For now, have
generally gone with MVFR visibilities with showers and vicinity
thunder in all the TAF sites.  Some drops into the IFR range look
possible between 02/11-15Z.  Surface winds will remain generally out
of the southwest at 5-10kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 012329
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
729 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Scattered convection will be seen across the region this evening
with the largest concentration mainly south and east of the
terminals.  Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase later
tonight as a mid-level and surface low pressure system push into the
region from the west.  In general, it appears that aviation weather
conditions will deteriorate late tonight as the showers and storms
come into the region.  Convection looks to arrive around 02/06-07Z
and continue through the morning hours on Thursday.  For now, have
generally gone with MVFR visibilities with showers and vicinity
thunder in all the TAF sites.  Some drops into the IFR range look
possible between 02/11-15Z.  Surface winds will remain generally out
of the southwest at 5-10kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 011914
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Given various mesoscale boundaries, upper level disturbances, a
surface front, and an approaching low pressure system, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be with us throughout the TAF period. In
the TAFs, rather than having 24-36 hours of VCTS, attempted to
indicate the most likely times for thunder this afternoon in the
unstable atmosphere, and late tonight as possible redevelopment to
our northwest moves in. Kept VCSH for the rest of the time to convey
the thought of pervasive convection chances.

Synoptic scale winds will generally come in from the southwest
around 5 to 10 knots, though may become chaotic and stronger in
showers/storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 011914
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Given various mesoscale boundaries, upper level disturbances, a
surface front, and an approaching low pressure system, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be with us throughout the TAF period. In
the TAFs, rather than having 24-36 hours of VCTS, attempted to
indicate the most likely times for thunder this afternoon in the
unstable atmosphere, and late tonight as possible redevelopment to
our northwest moves in. Kept VCSH for the rest of the time to convey
the thought of pervasive convection chances.

Synoptic scale winds will generally come in from the southwest
around 5 to 10 knots, though may become chaotic and stronger in
showers/storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 011914
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Given various mesoscale boundaries, upper level disturbances, a
surface front, and an approaching low pressure system, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be with us throughout the TAF period. In
the TAFs, rather than having 24-36 hours of VCTS, attempted to
indicate the most likely times for thunder this afternoon in the
unstable atmosphere, and late tonight as possible redevelopment to
our northwest moves in. Kept VCSH for the rest of the time to convey
the thought of pervasive convection chances.

Synoptic scale winds will generally come in from the southwest
around 5 to 10 knots, though may become chaotic and stronger in
showers/storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 011914
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Given various mesoscale boundaries, upper level disturbances, a
surface front, and an approaching low pressure system, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be with us throughout the TAF period. In
the TAFs, rather than having 24-36 hours of VCTS, attempted to
indicate the most likely times for thunder this afternoon in the
unstable atmosphere, and late tonight as possible redevelopment to
our northwest moves in. Kept VCSH for the rest of the time to convey
the thought of pervasive convection chances.

Synoptic scale winds will generally come in from the southwest
around 5 to 10 knots, though may become chaotic and stronger in
showers/storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 011742
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
142 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Showers, with a few embedded rumbles of thunder, have developed and
have been crossing the region over the past few hours. There are
several potential triggers for additional convection in the warm,
muggy atmosphere this afternoon including an east-west surface
boundary draped from southern Ohio to central Illinois, differential
heating boundaries as debris canopy clouds from the overnight MCS
thin, and a weak upper level disturbance near Paducah affect the
area. One can also detect general mesoscale circulation in radar
data with the activity currently over southern Indiana and also the
activity that has crossed south central Kentucky.

Though there is instability available, it appears that the main
threat with storms will be locally torrential rain rather than
widespread severe. Lebanon-Springfield Airport reported 1/4SM in a
very heavy downpour as storms moved through that location earlier.
Mesoanalysis shows PWATs pooling to two inches west of I-65. Local
interactions between storms and their outflows will help to produce
any stronger storms, which would be capable of gusty winds as the
cores drop.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Northwest flow aloft continues to allow disturbances to cross the
region, sparking enhanced storm threats.  One such system is over
eastern NE and forcing new storms to form now over western Missouri.
Another is over central North Dakota. Expect the first system to
take a turn southward into Arkansas, whereas the second system
should move to Indiana/Ohio later this afternoon. At the same time,
a healthy slug of moisture will surge in from the west today. Thus
expecting another round of thunderstorms to develop, starting by
late this morning in our southwest and into the rest of the region
by late this afternoon.

That moisture will linger with us for the next few days, so rain
chances will be good each day. A stalled frontal boundary in the
region will provide the focus for storm development each day, as
well as further disturbances in the flow aloft. The primary focus
for rains in this set of models is over our southwest, which
according to RFC flash flood guidance can handle the most rain. Thus
decided against a flash flood watch for now. Cannot rule out one
going out soon, as the focus right now for the long term period
shifts northward, into areas that have seen a little more rain of
late.

With the initial round of storms today, especially any that form on
the leading edge of that surge, we may see some stronger cores with
hail as wet bulb zeroes start out below 10 kft, just ahead of the
moist surge. That threat should end quickly with the increased
moisture and warmer air coming in though. After that think the
threat for severe weather ends and we will have to deal more with
heavy rain in the storms.

The increased moisture will mean diurnal temperatures having a
smaller range, and highs below normal.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2015

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Shallow NW flow at the base of an eastern CONUS trough will rule the
upper pattern to end the work week. Meanwhile, a surface boundary
looks to be stalled across central KY. Deeper moisture should pool
into the area both along the boundary, and ahead of disturbance
dropping through the flow over the upper Midwest. This disturbance
then passes Friday night. This will result in scattered to numerous
showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall possible in the high
precipitable water airmass. Best focus looks to be across central
and southern KY along and south of the boundary. Lows Thursday night
will be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Friday in the upper
70s to around 80. Lows on Friday night will again be in the mid and
upper 60s.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The main trough axis looks to shift NE through the weekend, however
a secondary weak upper low will meander from the southern Plains to
the mid Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, stalled frontal
boundary looks to remain near our southern CWA. This should continue
to allow for iso-scattered coverage of showers and storms, mainly
each afternoon/evening. Will likely try to hit more on the diurnal
minimum through the overnight weekend hours, resulting in lower
chance. Main focus continues to be across KY, with southern IN
possibly staying completely dry. Temperatures should continue to be
around 80 and into the lower 80s for highs. Lows should remain
mostly in the upper 60s.

Monday - Tuesday...

Flat upper ridging from the southern CONUS looks to pump up a bit to
start the new work week. This will shift the main belt of westerlies
furthern north across the upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes,
however a weak reflection of the surface boundary may still hang
around our CWA. Think coverage of showers and storms will be mainly
in the widely scatttered to scattered range (30-50%) given less
influence from individual disturbances passing through the flow.

We`ll see an increase and heat/humidity with the ridging becoming
more established so continued to reflect this with warmer highs more
solidly into the 80s, and lows around the 70 mark.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Given various mesoscale boundaries, upper level disturbances, a
surface front, and an approaching low pressure system, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be with us throughout the TAF period. In
the TAFs, rather than having 24-36 hours of VCTS, attempted to
indicate the most likely times for thunder this afternoon in the
unstable atmosphere, and late tonight as possible redevelopment to
our northwest moves in. Kept VCSH for the rest of the time to convey
the thought of pervasive convection chances.

Synoptic scale winds will generally come in from the southwest
around 5 to 10 knots, though may become chaotic and stronger in
showers/storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 011742
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
142 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Showers, with a few embedded rumbles of thunder, have developed and
have been crossing the region over the past few hours. There are
several potential triggers for additional convection in the warm,
muggy atmosphere this afternoon including an east-west surface
boundary draped from southern Ohio to central Illinois, differential
heating boundaries as debris canopy clouds from the overnight MCS
thin, and a weak upper level disturbance near Paducah affect the
area. One can also detect general mesoscale circulation in radar
data with the activity currently over southern Indiana and also the
activity that has crossed south central Kentucky.

Though there is instability available, it appears that the main
threat with storms will be locally torrential rain rather than
widespread severe. Lebanon-Springfield Airport reported 1/4SM in a
very heavy downpour as storms moved through that location earlier.
Mesoanalysis shows PWATs pooling to two inches west of I-65. Local
interactions between storms and their outflows will help to produce
any stronger storms, which would be capable of gusty winds as the
cores drop.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Northwest flow aloft continues to allow disturbances to cross the
region, sparking enhanced storm threats.  One such system is over
eastern NE and forcing new storms to form now over western Missouri.
Another is over central North Dakota. Expect the first system to
take a turn southward into Arkansas, whereas the second system
should move to Indiana/Ohio later this afternoon. At the same time,
a healthy slug of moisture will surge in from the west today. Thus
expecting another round of thunderstorms to develop, starting by
late this morning in our southwest and into the rest of the region
by late this afternoon.

That moisture will linger with us for the next few days, so rain
chances will be good each day. A stalled frontal boundary in the
region will provide the focus for storm development each day, as
well as further disturbances in the flow aloft. The primary focus
for rains in this set of models is over our southwest, which
according to RFC flash flood guidance can handle the most rain. Thus
decided against a flash flood watch for now. Cannot rule out one
going out soon, as the focus right now for the long term period
shifts northward, into areas that have seen a little more rain of
late.

With the initial round of storms today, especially any that form on
the leading edge of that surge, we may see some stronger cores with
hail as wet bulb zeroes start out below 10 kft, just ahead of the
moist surge. That threat should end quickly with the increased
moisture and warmer air coming in though. After that think the
threat for severe weather ends and we will have to deal more with
heavy rain in the storms.

The increased moisture will mean diurnal temperatures having a
smaller range, and highs below normal.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2015

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Shallow NW flow at the base of an eastern CONUS trough will rule the
upper pattern to end the work week. Meanwhile, a surface boundary
looks to be stalled across central KY. Deeper moisture should pool
into the area both along the boundary, and ahead of disturbance
dropping through the flow over the upper Midwest. This disturbance
then passes Friday night. This will result in scattered to numerous
showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall possible in the high
precipitable water airmass. Best focus looks to be across central
and southern KY along and south of the boundary. Lows Thursday night
will be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Friday in the upper
70s to around 80. Lows on Friday night will again be in the mid and
upper 60s.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The main trough axis looks to shift NE through the weekend, however
a secondary weak upper low will meander from the southern Plains to
the mid Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, stalled frontal
boundary looks to remain near our southern CWA. This should continue
to allow for iso-scattered coverage of showers and storms, mainly
each afternoon/evening. Will likely try to hit more on the diurnal
minimum through the overnight weekend hours, resulting in lower
chance. Main focus continues to be across KY, with southern IN
possibly staying completely dry. Temperatures should continue to be
around 80 and into the lower 80s for highs. Lows should remain
mostly in the upper 60s.

Monday - Tuesday...

Flat upper ridging from the southern CONUS looks to pump up a bit to
start the new work week. This will shift the main belt of westerlies
furthern north across the upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes,
however a weak reflection of the surface boundary may still hang
around our CWA. Think coverage of showers and storms will be mainly
in the widely scatttered to scattered range (30-50%) given less
influence from individual disturbances passing through the flow.

We`ll see an increase and heat/humidity with the ridging becoming
more established so continued to reflect this with warmer highs more
solidly into the 80s, and lows around the 70 mark.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Given various mesoscale boundaries, upper level disturbances, a
surface front, and an approaching low pressure system, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be with us throughout the TAF period. In
the TAFs, rather than having 24-36 hours of VCTS, attempted to
indicate the most likely times for thunder this afternoon in the
unstable atmosphere, and late tonight as possible redevelopment to
our northwest moves in. Kept VCSH for the rest of the time to convey
the thought of pervasive convection chances.

Synoptic scale winds will generally come in from the southwest
around 5 to 10 knots, though may become chaotic and stronger in
showers/storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 011702
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Northwest flow aloft continues to allow disturbances to cross the
region, sparking enhanced storm threats.  One such system is over
eastern NE and forcing new storms to form now over western Missouri.
Another is over central North Dakota. Expect the first system to
take a turn southward into Arkansas, whereas the second system
should move to Indiana/Ohio later this afternoon. At the same time,
a healthy slug of moisture will surge in from the west today. Thus
expecting another round of thunderstorms to develop, starting by
late this morning in our southwest and into the rest of the region
by late this afternoon.

That moisture will linger with us for the next few days, so rain
chances will be good each day. A stalled frontal boundary in the
region will provide the focus for storm development each day, as
well as further disturbances in the flow aloft. The primary focus
for rains in this set of models is over our southwest, which
according to RFC flash flood guidance can handle the most rain. Thus
decided against a flash flood watch for now. Cannot rule out one
going out soon, as the focus right now for the long term period
shifts northward, into areas that have seen a little more rain of
late.

With the initial round of storms today, especially any that form on
the leading edge of that surge, we may see some stronger cores with
hail as wet bulb zeroes start out below 10 kft, just ahead of the
moist surge. That threat should end quickly with the increased
moisture and warmer air coming in though. After that think the
threat for severe weather ends and we will have to deal more with
heavy rain in the storms.

The increased moisture will mean diurnal temperatures having a
smaller range, and highs below normal.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2015

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Shallow NW flow at the base of an eastern CONUS trough will rule the
upper pattern to end the work week. Meanwhile, a surface boundary
looks to be stalled across central KY. Deeper moisture should pool
into the area both along the boundary, and ahead of disturbance
dropping through the flow over the upper Midwest. This disturbance
then passes Friday night. This will result in scattered to numerous
showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall possible in the high
precipitable water airmass. Best focus looks to be across central
and southern KY along and south of the boundary. Lows Thursday night
will be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Friday in the upper
70s to around 80. Lows on Friday night will again be in the mid and
upper 60s.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The main trough axis looks to shift NE through the weekend, however
a secondary weak upper low will meander from the southern Plains to
the mid Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, stalled frontal
boundary looks to remain near our southern CWA. This should continue
to allow for iso-scattered coverage of showers and storms, mainly
each afternoon/evening. Will likely try to hit more on the diurnal
minimum through the overnight weekend hours, resulting in lower
chance. Main focus continues to be across KY, with southern IN
possibly staying completely dry. Temperatures should continue to be
around 80 and into the lower 80s for highs. Lows should remain
mostly in the upper 60s.

Monday - Tuesday...

Flat upper ridging from the southern CONUS looks to pump up a bit to
start the new work week. This will shift the main belt of westerlies
furthern north across the upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes,
however a weak reflection of the surface boundary may still hang
around our CWA. Think coverage of showers and storms will be mainly
in the widely scatttered to scattered range (30-50%) given less
influence from individual disturbances passing through the flow.

We`ll see an increase and heat/humidity with the ridging becoming
more established so continued to reflect this with warmer highs more
solidly into the 80s, and lows around the 70 mark.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Given various mesoscale boundaries, upper level disturbances, a
surface front, and an approaching low pressure system, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be with us throughout the TAF period. In
the TAFs, rather than having 24-36 hours of VCTS, attempted to
indicate the most likely times for thunder this afternoon in the
unstable atmosphere, and late tonight as possible redevelopment to
our northwest moves in. Kept VCSH for the rest of the time to convey
the thought of pervasive convection chances.

Synoptic scale winds will generally come in from the southwest
around 5 to 10 knots, though may become chaotic and stronger in
showers/storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 011702
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Northwest flow aloft continues to allow disturbances to cross the
region, sparking enhanced storm threats.  One such system is over
eastern NE and forcing new storms to form now over western Missouri.
Another is over central North Dakota. Expect the first system to
take a turn southward into Arkansas, whereas the second system
should move to Indiana/Ohio later this afternoon. At the same time,
a healthy slug of moisture will surge in from the west today. Thus
expecting another round of thunderstorms to develop, starting by
late this morning in our southwest and into the rest of the region
by late this afternoon.

That moisture will linger with us for the next few days, so rain
chances will be good each day. A stalled frontal boundary in the
region will provide the focus for storm development each day, as
well as further disturbances in the flow aloft. The primary focus
for rains in this set of models is over our southwest, which
according to RFC flash flood guidance can handle the most rain. Thus
decided against a flash flood watch for now. Cannot rule out one
going out soon, as the focus right now for the long term period
shifts northward, into areas that have seen a little more rain of
late.

With the initial round of storms today, especially any that form on
the leading edge of that surge, we may see some stronger cores with
hail as wet bulb zeroes start out below 10 kft, just ahead of the
moist surge. That threat should end quickly with the increased
moisture and warmer air coming in though. After that think the
threat for severe weather ends and we will have to deal more with
heavy rain in the storms.

The increased moisture will mean diurnal temperatures having a
smaller range, and highs below normal.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2015

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Shallow NW flow at the base of an eastern CONUS trough will rule the
upper pattern to end the work week. Meanwhile, a surface boundary
looks to be stalled across central KY. Deeper moisture should pool
into the area both along the boundary, and ahead of disturbance
dropping through the flow over the upper Midwest. This disturbance
then passes Friday night. This will result in scattered to numerous
showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall possible in the high
precipitable water airmass. Best focus looks to be across central
and southern KY along and south of the boundary. Lows Thursday night
will be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Friday in the upper
70s to around 80. Lows on Friday night will again be in the mid and
upper 60s.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The main trough axis looks to shift NE through the weekend, however
a secondary weak upper low will meander from the southern Plains to
the mid Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, stalled frontal
boundary looks to remain near our southern CWA. This should continue
to allow for iso-scattered coverage of showers and storms, mainly
each afternoon/evening. Will likely try to hit more on the diurnal
minimum through the overnight weekend hours, resulting in lower
chance. Main focus continues to be across KY, with southern IN
possibly staying completely dry. Temperatures should continue to be
around 80 and into the lower 80s for highs. Lows should remain
mostly in the upper 60s.

Monday - Tuesday...

Flat upper ridging from the southern CONUS looks to pump up a bit to
start the new work week. This will shift the main belt of westerlies
furthern north across the upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes,
however a weak reflection of the surface boundary may still hang
around our CWA. Think coverage of showers and storms will be mainly
in the widely scatttered to scattered range (30-50%) given less
influence from individual disturbances passing through the flow.

We`ll see an increase and heat/humidity with the ridging becoming
more established so continued to reflect this with warmer highs more
solidly into the 80s, and lows around the 70 mark.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Given various mesoscale boundaries, upper level disturbances, a
surface front, and an approaching low pressure system, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be with us throughout the TAF period. In
the TAFs, rather than having 24-36 hours of VCTS, attempted to
indicate the most likely times for thunder this afternoon in the
unstable atmosphere, and late tonight as possible redevelopment to
our northwest moves in. Kept VCSH for the rest of the time to convey
the thought of pervasive convection chances.

Synoptic scale winds will generally come in from the southwest
around 5 to 10 knots, though may become chaotic and stronger in
showers/storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 011702
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Northwest flow aloft continues to allow disturbances to cross the
region, sparking enhanced storm threats.  One such system is over
eastern NE and forcing new storms to form now over western Missouri.
Another is over central North Dakota. Expect the first system to
take a turn southward into Arkansas, whereas the second system
should move to Indiana/Ohio later this afternoon. At the same time,
a healthy slug of moisture will surge in from the west today. Thus
expecting another round of thunderstorms to develop, starting by
late this morning in our southwest and into the rest of the region
by late this afternoon.

That moisture will linger with us for the next few days, so rain
chances will be good each day. A stalled frontal boundary in the
region will provide the focus for storm development each day, as
well as further disturbances in the flow aloft. The primary focus
for rains in this set of models is over our southwest, which
according to RFC flash flood guidance can handle the most rain. Thus
decided against a flash flood watch for now. Cannot rule out one
going out soon, as the focus right now for the long term period
shifts northward, into areas that have seen a little more rain of
late.

With the initial round of storms today, especially any that form on
the leading edge of that surge, we may see some stronger cores with
hail as wet bulb zeroes start out below 10 kft, just ahead of the
moist surge. That threat should end quickly with the increased
moisture and warmer air coming in though. After that think the
threat for severe weather ends and we will have to deal more with
heavy rain in the storms.

The increased moisture will mean diurnal temperatures having a
smaller range, and highs below normal.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2015

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Shallow NW flow at the base of an eastern CONUS trough will rule the
upper pattern to end the work week. Meanwhile, a surface boundary
looks to be stalled across central KY. Deeper moisture should pool
into the area both along the boundary, and ahead of disturbance
dropping through the flow over the upper Midwest. This disturbance
then passes Friday night. This will result in scattered to numerous
showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall possible in the high
precipitable water airmass. Best focus looks to be across central
and southern KY along and south of the boundary. Lows Thursday night
will be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Friday in the upper
70s to around 80. Lows on Friday night will again be in the mid and
upper 60s.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The main trough axis looks to shift NE through the weekend, however
a secondary weak upper low will meander from the southern Plains to
the mid Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, stalled frontal
boundary looks to remain near our southern CWA. This should continue
to allow for iso-scattered coverage of showers and storms, mainly
each afternoon/evening. Will likely try to hit more on the diurnal
minimum through the overnight weekend hours, resulting in lower
chance. Main focus continues to be across KY, with southern IN
possibly staying completely dry. Temperatures should continue to be
around 80 and into the lower 80s for highs. Lows should remain
mostly in the upper 60s.

Monday - Tuesday...

Flat upper ridging from the southern CONUS looks to pump up a bit to
start the new work week. This will shift the main belt of westerlies
furthern north across the upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes,
however a weak reflection of the surface boundary may still hang
around our CWA. Think coverage of showers and storms will be mainly
in the widely scatttered to scattered range (30-50%) given less
influence from individual disturbances passing through the flow.

We`ll see an increase and heat/humidity with the ridging becoming
more established so continued to reflect this with warmer highs more
solidly into the 80s, and lows around the 70 mark.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Given various mesoscale boundaries, upper level disturbances, a
surface front, and an approaching low pressure system, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be with us throughout the TAF period. In
the TAFs, rather than having 24-36 hours of VCTS, attempted to
indicate the most likely times for thunder this afternoon in the
unstable atmosphere, and late tonight as possible redevelopment to
our northwest moves in. Kept VCSH for the rest of the time to convey
the thought of pervasive convection chances.

Synoptic scale winds will generally come in from the southwest
around 5 to 10 knots, though may become chaotic and stronger in
showers/storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 011702
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Northwest flow aloft continues to allow disturbances to cross the
region, sparking enhanced storm threats.  One such system is over
eastern NE and forcing new storms to form now over western Missouri.
Another is over central North Dakota. Expect the first system to
take a turn southward into Arkansas, whereas the second system
should move to Indiana/Ohio later this afternoon. At the same time,
a healthy slug of moisture will surge in from the west today. Thus
expecting another round of thunderstorms to develop, starting by
late this morning in our southwest and into the rest of the region
by late this afternoon.

That moisture will linger with us for the next few days, so rain
chances will be good each day. A stalled frontal boundary in the
region will provide the focus for storm development each day, as
well as further disturbances in the flow aloft. The primary focus
for rains in this set of models is over our southwest, which
according to RFC flash flood guidance can handle the most rain. Thus
decided against a flash flood watch for now. Cannot rule out one
going out soon, as the focus right now for the long term period
shifts northward, into areas that have seen a little more rain of
late.

With the initial round of storms today, especially any that form on
the leading edge of that surge, we may see some stronger cores with
hail as wet bulb zeroes start out below 10 kft, just ahead of the
moist surge. That threat should end quickly with the increased
moisture and warmer air coming in though. After that think the
threat for severe weather ends and we will have to deal more with
heavy rain in the storms.

The increased moisture will mean diurnal temperatures having a
smaller range, and highs below normal.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2015

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Shallow NW flow at the base of an eastern CONUS trough will rule the
upper pattern to end the work week. Meanwhile, a surface boundary
looks to be stalled across central KY. Deeper moisture should pool
into the area both along the boundary, and ahead of disturbance
dropping through the flow over the upper Midwest. This disturbance
then passes Friday night. This will result in scattered to numerous
showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall possible in the high
precipitable water airmass. Best focus looks to be across central
and southern KY along and south of the boundary. Lows Thursday night
will be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Friday in the upper
70s to around 80. Lows on Friday night will again be in the mid and
upper 60s.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The main trough axis looks to shift NE through the weekend, however
a secondary weak upper low will meander from the southern Plains to
the mid Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, stalled frontal
boundary looks to remain near our southern CWA. This should continue
to allow for iso-scattered coverage of showers and storms, mainly
each afternoon/evening. Will likely try to hit more on the diurnal
minimum through the overnight weekend hours, resulting in lower
chance. Main focus continues to be across KY, with southern IN
possibly staying completely dry. Temperatures should continue to be
around 80 and into the lower 80s for highs. Lows should remain
mostly in the upper 60s.

Monday - Tuesday...

Flat upper ridging from the southern CONUS looks to pump up a bit to
start the new work week. This will shift the main belt of westerlies
furthern north across the upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes,
however a weak reflection of the surface boundary may still hang
around our CWA. Think coverage of showers and storms will be mainly
in the widely scatttered to scattered range (30-50%) given less
influence from individual disturbances passing through the flow.

We`ll see an increase and heat/humidity with the ridging becoming
more established so continued to reflect this with warmer highs more
solidly into the 80s, and lows around the 70 mark.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Given various mesoscale boundaries, upper level disturbances, a
surface front, and an approaching low pressure system, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be with us throughout the TAF period. In
the TAFs, rather than having 24-36 hours of VCTS, attempted to
indicate the most likely times for thunder this afternoon in the
unstable atmosphere, and late tonight as possible redevelopment to
our northwest moves in. Kept VCSH for the rest of the time to convey
the thought of pervasive convection chances.

Synoptic scale winds will generally come in from the southwest
around 5 to 10 knots, though may become chaotic and stronger in
showers/storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 011051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
651 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Northwest flow aloft continues to allow disturbances to cross the
region, sparking enhanced storm threats.  One such system is over
eastern NE and forcing new storms to form now over western Missouri.
Another is over central North Dakota. Expect the first system to
take a turn southward into Arkansas, whereas the second system
should move to Indiana/Ohio later this afternoon. At the same time,
a healthy slug of moisture will surge in from the west today. Thus
expecting another round of thunderstorms to develop, starting by
late this morning in our southwest and into the rest of the region
by late this afternoon.

That moisture will linger with us for the next few days, so rain
chances will be good each day. A stalled frontal boundary in the
region will provide the focus for storm development each day, as
well as further disturbances in the flow aloft. The primary focus
for rains in this set of models is over our southwest, which
according to RFC flash flood guidance can handle to most rains. Thus
decided against a flash flood watch for now. Cannot rule out one
going out soon, as the focus right now for the long term period
shifts northward, into areas that have seen a little more rain of
late.

With the initial round of storms today, especially any that form on
the leading edge of that surge, we may see some stronger cores with
hail, as wet bulb zeroes start out below 10 kft, just ahead of the
moist surge. That threat should end quickly with the increase
moisture and warmer air coming in though. After that think the
threat for severe weather ends and we will have to deal more with
heavy rain in the storms.

The increased moisture will mean diurnal temperatures having a
smaller range, and highs below normal.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2015

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Shallow NW flow at the base of an eastern CONUS trough will rule the
upper pattern to end the work week. Meanwhile, a surface boundary
looks to be stalled across central KY. Deeper moisture should pool
into the area both along the boundary, and ahead of disturbance
dropping through the flow over the upper Midwest. This disturbance
then passes Friday night. This will result in scattered to numerous
showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall possible in the high
precipitable water airmass. Best focus looks to be across central
and southern KY along and south of the boundary. Lows Thursday night
will be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Friday in the upper
70s to around 80. Lows on Friday night will again be in the mid and
upper 60s.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The main trough axis looks to shift NE through the weekend, however
a secondary weak upper low will meander from the southern Plains to
the mid Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, stalled frontal
boundary looks to remain near our southern CWA. This should continue
to allow for iso-scattered coverage of showers and storms, mainly
each afternoon/evening. Will likely try to hit more on the diurnal
minimum through the overnight weekend hours, resulting in lower
chance. Main focus continues to be across KY, with southern IN
possibly staying completely dry. Temperatures should continue to be
around 80 and into the lower 80s for highs. Lows should remain
mostly in the upper 60s.

Monday - Tuesday...

Flat upper ridging from the southern CONUS looks to pump up a bit to
start the new work week. This will shift the main belt of westerlies
furthern north across the upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes,
however a weak reflection of the surface boundary may still hang
around our CWA. Think coverage of showers and storms will be mainly
in the widely scatttered to scattered range (30-50%) given less
influence from individual disturbances passing through the flow.

We`ll see an increase and heat/humidity with the ridging becoming
more established so continued to reflect this with warmer highs more
solidly into the 80s, and lows around the 70 mark.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Will be dealing with some visibility restrictions at all TAF sites
this morning. Currently, LEX is in the MVFR range although steady SW
winds should keep visibilities from going into the IFR range.
SDF/BWG may flirt with the VFR/MVFR threshold for the first hour
after new issuance, however any restrictions should mix out by 8 or
9 AM EDT. Winds will generally veer around to a westerly direction
between 5 and 10 mph through the day.

Our next disturbance will come in from the northwest, bringing
another good shot at storms starting first at KBWG by late morning,
then at KSDF/KLEX by mid to late afternoon. These storm chances will
persist to the end of the period at BWG, as plentiful moisture and a
stalled frontal boundary provide the focus for storm development.
Will taper storm chances at SDF/LEX as we head toward dawn on
Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS/BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 011051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
651 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Northwest flow aloft continues to allow disturbances to cross the
region, sparking enhanced storm threats.  One such system is over
eastern NE and forcing new storms to form now over western Missouri.
Another is over central North Dakota. Expect the first system to
take a turn southward into Arkansas, whereas the second system
should move to Indiana/Ohio later this afternoon. At the same time,
a healthy slug of moisture will surge in from the west today. Thus
expecting another round of thunderstorms to develop, starting by
late this morning in our southwest and into the rest of the region
by late this afternoon.

That moisture will linger with us for the next few days, so rain
chances will be good each day. A stalled frontal boundary in the
region will provide the focus for storm development each day, as
well as further disturbances in the flow aloft. The primary focus
for rains in this set of models is over our southwest, which
according to RFC flash flood guidance can handle to most rains. Thus
decided against a flash flood watch for now. Cannot rule out one
going out soon, as the focus right now for the long term period
shifts northward, into areas that have seen a little more rain of
late.

With the initial round of storms today, especially any that form on
the leading edge of that surge, we may see some stronger cores with
hail, as wet bulb zeroes start out below 10 kft, just ahead of the
moist surge. That threat should end quickly with the increase
moisture and warmer air coming in though. After that think the
threat for severe weather ends and we will have to deal more with
heavy rain in the storms.

The increased moisture will mean diurnal temperatures having a
smaller range, and highs below normal.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2015

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Shallow NW flow at the base of an eastern CONUS trough will rule the
upper pattern to end the work week. Meanwhile, a surface boundary
looks to be stalled across central KY. Deeper moisture should pool
into the area both along the boundary, and ahead of disturbance
dropping through the flow over the upper Midwest. This disturbance
then passes Friday night. This will result in scattered to numerous
showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall possible in the high
precipitable water airmass. Best focus looks to be across central
and southern KY along and south of the boundary. Lows Thursday night
will be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Friday in the upper
70s to around 80. Lows on Friday night will again be in the mid and
upper 60s.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The main trough axis looks to shift NE through the weekend, however
a secondary weak upper low will meander from the southern Plains to
the mid Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, stalled frontal
boundary looks to remain near our southern CWA. This should continue
to allow for iso-scattered coverage of showers and storms, mainly
each afternoon/evening. Will likely try to hit more on the diurnal
minimum through the overnight weekend hours, resulting in lower
chance. Main focus continues to be across KY, with southern IN
possibly staying completely dry. Temperatures should continue to be
around 80 and into the lower 80s for highs. Lows should remain
mostly in the upper 60s.

Monday - Tuesday...

Flat upper ridging from the southern CONUS looks to pump up a bit to
start the new work week. This will shift the main belt of westerlies
furthern north across the upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes,
however a weak reflection of the surface boundary may still hang
around our CWA. Think coverage of showers and storms will be mainly
in the widely scatttered to scattered range (30-50%) given less
influence from individual disturbances passing through the flow.

We`ll see an increase and heat/humidity with the ridging becoming
more established so continued to reflect this with warmer highs more
solidly into the 80s, and lows around the 70 mark.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Will be dealing with some visibility restrictions at all TAF sites
this morning. Currently, LEX is in the MVFR range although steady SW
winds should keep visibilities from going into the IFR range.
SDF/BWG may flirt with the VFR/MVFR threshold for the first hour
after new issuance, however any restrictions should mix out by 8 or
9 AM EDT. Winds will generally veer around to a westerly direction
between 5 and 10 mph through the day.

Our next disturbance will come in from the northwest, bringing
another good shot at storms starting first at KBWG by late morning,
then at KSDF/KLEX by mid to late afternoon. These storm chances will
persist to the end of the period at BWG, as plentiful moisture and a
stalled frontal boundary provide the focus for storm development.
Will taper storm chances at SDF/LEX as we head toward dawn on
Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS/BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Northwest flow aloft continues to allow disturbances to cross the
region, sparking enhanced storm threats.  One such system is over
eastern NE and forcing new storms to form now over western Missouri.
Another is over central North Dakota. Expect the first system to
take a turn southward into Arkansas, whereas the second system
should move to Indiana/Ohio later this afternoon. At the same time,
a healthy slug of moisture will surge in from the west today. Thus
expecting another round of thunderstorms to develop, starting by
late this morning in our southwest and into the rest of the region
by late this afternoon.

That moisture will linger with us for the next few days, so rain
chances will be good each day. A stalled frontal boundary in the
region will provide the focus for storm development each day, as
well as further disturbances in the flow aloft. The primary focus
for rains in this set of models is over our southwest, which
according to RFC flash flood guidance can handle to most rains. Thus
decided against a flash flood watch for now. Cannot rule out one
going out soon, as the focus right now for the long term period
shifts northward, into areas that have seen a little more rain of
late.

With the initial round of storms today, especially any that form on
the leading edge of that surge, we may see some stronger cores with
hail, as wet bulb zeroes start out below 10 kft, just ahead of the
moist surge. That threat should end quickly with the increase
moisture and warmer air coming in though. After that think the
threat for severe weather ends and we will have to deal more with
heavy rain in the storms.

The increased moisture will mean diurnal temperatures having a
smaller range, and highs below normal.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2015

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Shallow NW flow at the base of an eastern CONUS trough will rule the
upper pattern to end the work week. Meanwhile, a surface boundary
looks to be stalled across central KY. Deeper moisture should pool
into the area both along the boundary, and ahead of disturbance
dropping through the flow over the upper Midwest. This disturbance
then passes Friday night. This will result in scattered to numerous
showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall possible in the high
precipitable water airmass. Best focus looks to be across central
and southern KY along and south of the boundary. Lows Thursday night
will be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Friday in the upper
70s to around 80. Lows on Friday night will again be in the mid and
upper 60s.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The main trough axis looks to shift NE through the weekend, however
a secondary weak upper low will meander from the southern Plains to
the mid Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, stalled frontal
boundary looks to remain near our southern CWA. This should continue
to allow for iso-scattered coverage of showers and storms, mainly
each afternoon/evening. Will likely try to hit more on the diurnal
minimum through the overnight weekend hours, resulting in lower
chance. Main focus continues to be across KY, with southern IN
possibly staying completely dry. Temperatures should continue to be
around 80 and into the lower 80s for highs. Lows should remain
mostly in the upper 60s.

Monday - Tuesday...

Flat upper ridging from the southern CONUS looks to pump up a bit to
start the new work week. This will shift the main belt of westerlies
furthern north across the upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes,
however a weak reflection of the surface boundary may still hang
around our CWA. Think coverage of showers and storms will be mainly
in the widely scatttered to scattered range (30-50%) given less
influence from individual disturbances passing through the flow.

We`ll see an increase and heat/humidity with the ridging becoming
more established so continued to reflect this with warmer highs more
solidly into the 80s, and lows around the 70 mark.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

A few storms remain between the SDF/LEX corridor, but expect these
to continue to wane the next couple of hours. There`s enough
residual moisture at KLEX and perhaps at KSDF to generate some MVFR
conditions, possibly IFR at KLEX towards daybreak. Then our next
disturbance will come in from the northwest, bringing another good
shot at storms starting first at KBWG by late morning, then at
KSDF/KLEX by late afternoon. These storm chances will persist to the
end of the period, as plentiful moisture and a stalled frontal
boundary provide the focus for storm development.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Northwest flow aloft continues to allow disturbances to cross the
region, sparking enhanced storm threats.  One such system is over
eastern NE and forcing new storms to form now over western Missouri.
Another is over central North Dakota. Expect the first system to
take a turn southward into Arkansas, whereas the second system
should move to Indiana/Ohio later this afternoon. At the same time,
a healthy slug of moisture will surge in from the west today. Thus
expecting another round of thunderstorms to develop, starting by
late this morning in our southwest and into the rest of the region
by late this afternoon.

That moisture will linger with us for the next few days, so rain
chances will be good each day. A stalled frontal boundary in the
region will provide the focus for storm development each day, as
well as further disturbances in the flow aloft. The primary focus
for rains in this set of models is over our southwest, which
according to RFC flash flood guidance can handle to most rains. Thus
decided against a flash flood watch for now. Cannot rule out one
going out soon, as the focus right now for the long term period
shifts northward, into areas that have seen a little more rain of
late.

With the initial round of storms today, especially any that form on
the leading edge of that surge, we may see some stronger cores with
hail, as wet bulb zeroes start out below 10 kft, just ahead of the
moist surge. That threat should end quickly with the increase
moisture and warmer air coming in though. After that think the
threat for severe weather ends and we will have to deal more with
heavy rain in the storms.

The increased moisture will mean diurnal temperatures having a
smaller range, and highs below normal.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2015

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Shallow NW flow at the base of an eastern CONUS trough will rule the
upper pattern to end the work week. Meanwhile, a surface boundary
looks to be stalled across central KY. Deeper moisture should pool
into the area both along the boundary, and ahead of disturbance
dropping through the flow over the upper Midwest. This disturbance
then passes Friday night. This will result in scattered to numerous
showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall possible in the high
precipitable water airmass. Best focus looks to be across central
and southern KY along and south of the boundary. Lows Thursday night
will be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Friday in the upper
70s to around 80. Lows on Friday night will again be in the mid and
upper 60s.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The main trough axis looks to shift NE through the weekend, however
a secondary weak upper low will meander from the southern Plains to
the mid Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, stalled frontal
boundary looks to remain near our southern CWA. This should continue
to allow for iso-scattered coverage of showers and storms, mainly
each afternoon/evening. Will likely try to hit more on the diurnal
minimum through the overnight weekend hours, resulting in lower
chance. Main focus continues to be across KY, with southern IN
possibly staying completely dry. Temperatures should continue to be
around 80 and into the lower 80s for highs. Lows should remain
mostly in the upper 60s.

Monday - Tuesday...

Flat upper ridging from the southern CONUS looks to pump up a bit to
start the new work week. This will shift the main belt of westerlies
furthern north across the upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes,
however a weak reflection of the surface boundary may still hang
around our CWA. Think coverage of showers and storms will be mainly
in the widely scatttered to scattered range (30-50%) given less
influence from individual disturbances passing through the flow.

We`ll see an increase and heat/humidity with the ridging becoming
more established so continued to reflect this with warmer highs more
solidly into the 80s, and lows around the 70 mark.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

A few storms remain between the SDF/LEX corridor, but expect these
to continue to wane the next couple of hours. There`s enough
residual moisture at KLEX and perhaps at KSDF to generate some MVFR
conditions, possibly IFR at KLEX towards daybreak. Then our next
disturbance will come in from the northwest, bringing another good
shot at storms starting first at KBWG by late morning, then at
KSDF/KLEX by late afternoon. These storm chances will persist to the
end of the period, as plentiful moisture and a stalled frontal
boundary provide the focus for storm development.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 010529
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 856 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convection continues to churn across the region this evening.
Storms are regenerating along a boundary stretching from near Salem,
IN southeastward to near Richmond KY.  Main convection is located
generally from Salem, IN to near Shelbyville and this activity will
continue to drop east southeast.  Outflow from these storms has
pushed westward through metro Louisville and current indications are
that the storms will likely remain in the far northeastern and
eastern suburbs of the Louisville metro area for the next 1-2 hours.

While the storms in the area remain strong, the overall areal extent
of severe weather has decreased.  Therefore, the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch will be allowed to expire at 900 PM EDT.  We will keep
thunderstorms going in the forecast through about midnight EDT and
then start to let precipitation chances diminish.  Current threats
with the storms will be sub-severe hail, gusty winds and torrential
rainfall.  We will be closely watching water levels this evening.
However, calls out to the local counties suggest that runoff remains
generally good at this time.

Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

After coordination with SPC, we have expanded the watch slightly to
the southwest and extended the running time until 01Z or 900 PM EDT.

Band of convection continue to slide east-southeast across the
northern part of KY and southern IN this evening.  Cold pool
processes are starting to become more evident as the gust front is
pushing out a little bit more.  Current thinking is that
thunderstorms over southern IN may push further south into the
Louisville Metro area in the next 1-2 hours.  While the storms have
show a general downturn in strength, they are still capable of
producing torrential rains, large hail and gusty winds for the next
couple of hours or so.

Updated forecast products are already out.


Issued at 639 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convective line that moved out of southern Indiana is slowly
progressing east-southeast through northern KY this evening.  The
storms are located roughly from Salem, IN to near Paris, KY...or
along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Storms have been pulsing
up and down producing torrential rainfall some gusty winds and
mainly pea-marble sized hail (based on social media pictures).

Severe threat is still there...limited to gusty winds and maybe an
isolated large hail report or two.  However, current thinking is
that flash flooding and local hydrologic issues will be the main
threat with this line.  Dual-pol radar analysis suggests
instantaneous rainfall amounts of 3-4 in/hr are falling.  It has
been as high as 6 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  Taking into
account the storms movement we`ve generally been seeing about 1-2
inches of rainfall with these storms.  However, this area has seen
recent heavy rainfall and 2 inches of rain will likely lead to some
flooding issues.  A number of flood advisories are in effect along
and north of I-64.  We will continue to monitor the storms and
additional flash flood warnings may be required if storms repeatedly
hit the same areas.

The storms will enter the Lexington Metro area within the hour.  The
heavy rainfall there may result some typical urban hydrologic issues
over the next hour.

Interesting to note on the visible satellite imagery the amount of
mid-high level smoke coming into the region from the Canadian
wildfires.  Current convection seems to be along the northern
boundary of this smoke with little in the way of convection (or even
cumulus) down across western KY.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

A few storms remain between the SDF/LEX corridor, but expect these
to continue to wane the next couple of hours. There`s enough
residual moisture at KLEX and perhaps at KSDF to generate some MVFR
conditions, possibly IFR at KLEX towards daybreak. Then our next
disturbance will come in from the northwest, bringing another good
shot at storms starting first at KBWG by late morning, then at
KSDF/KLEX by late afternoon. These storm chances will persist to the
end of the period, as plentiful moisture and a stalled frontal
boundary provide the focus for storm development.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 010529
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 856 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convection continues to churn across the region this evening.
Storms are regenerating along a boundary stretching from near Salem,
IN southeastward to near Richmond KY.  Main convection is located
generally from Salem, IN to near Shelbyville and this activity will
continue to drop east southeast.  Outflow from these storms has
pushed westward through metro Louisville and current indications are
that the storms will likely remain in the far northeastern and
eastern suburbs of the Louisville metro area for the next 1-2 hours.

While the storms in the area remain strong, the overall areal extent
of severe weather has decreased.  Therefore, the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch will be allowed to expire at 900 PM EDT.  We will keep
thunderstorms going in the forecast through about midnight EDT and
then start to let precipitation chances diminish.  Current threats
with the storms will be sub-severe hail, gusty winds and torrential
rainfall.  We will be closely watching water levels this evening.
However, calls out to the local counties suggest that runoff remains
generally good at this time.

Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

After coordination with SPC, we have expanded the watch slightly to
the southwest and extended the running time until 01Z or 900 PM EDT.

Band of convection continue to slide east-southeast across the
northern part of KY and southern IN this evening.  Cold pool
processes are starting to become more evident as the gust front is
pushing out a little bit more.  Current thinking is that
thunderstorms over southern IN may push further south into the
Louisville Metro area in the next 1-2 hours.  While the storms have
show a general downturn in strength, they are still capable of
producing torrential rains, large hail and gusty winds for the next
couple of hours or so.

Updated forecast products are already out.


Issued at 639 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convective line that moved out of southern Indiana is slowly
progressing east-southeast through northern KY this evening.  The
storms are located roughly from Salem, IN to near Paris, KY...or
along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Storms have been pulsing
up and down producing torrential rainfall some gusty winds and
mainly pea-marble sized hail (based on social media pictures).

Severe threat is still there...limited to gusty winds and maybe an
isolated large hail report or two.  However, current thinking is
that flash flooding and local hydrologic issues will be the main
threat with this line.  Dual-pol radar analysis suggests
instantaneous rainfall amounts of 3-4 in/hr are falling.  It has
been as high as 6 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  Taking into
account the storms movement we`ve generally been seeing about 1-2
inches of rainfall with these storms.  However, this area has seen
recent heavy rainfall and 2 inches of rain will likely lead to some
flooding issues.  A number of flood advisories are in effect along
and north of I-64.  We will continue to monitor the storms and
additional flash flood warnings may be required if storms repeatedly
hit the same areas.

The storms will enter the Lexington Metro area within the hour.  The
heavy rainfall there may result some typical urban hydrologic issues
over the next hour.

Interesting to note on the visible satellite imagery the amount of
mid-high level smoke coming into the region from the Canadian
wildfires.  Current convection seems to be along the northern
boundary of this smoke with little in the way of convection (or even
cumulus) down across western KY.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

A few storms remain between the SDF/LEX corridor, but expect these
to continue to wane the next couple of hours. There`s enough
residual moisture at KLEX and perhaps at KSDF to generate some MVFR
conditions, possibly IFR at KLEX towards daybreak. Then our next
disturbance will come in from the northwest, bringing another good
shot at storms starting first at KBWG by late morning, then at
KSDF/KLEX by late afternoon. These storm chances will persist to the
end of the period, as plentiful moisture and a stalled frontal
boundary provide the focus for storm development.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010058
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
858 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 856 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convection continues to churn across the region this evening.
Storms are regenerating along a boundary stretching from near Salem,
IN southeastward to near Richmond KY.  Main convection is located
generally from Salem, IN to near Shelbyville and this activity will
continue to drop east southeast.  Outflow from these storms has
pushed westward through metro Louisville and current indications are
that the storms will likely remain in the far northeastern and
eastern suburbs of the Louisville metro area for the next 1-2 hours.

While the storms in the area remain strong, the overall areal extent
of severe weather has decreased.  Therefore, the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch will be allowed to expire at 900 PM EDT.  We will keep
thunderstorms going in the forecast through about midnight EDT and
then start to let precipitation chances diminish.  Current threats
with the storms will be sub-severe hail, gusty winds and torrential
rainfall.  We will be closely watching water levels this evening.
However, calls out to the local counties suggest that runoff remains
generally good at this time.

Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

After coordination with SPC, we have expanded the watch slightly to
the southwest and extended the running time until 01Z or 900 PM EDT.

Band of convection continue to slide east-southeast across the
northern part of KY and southern IN this evening.  Cold pool
processes are starting to become more evident as the gust front is
pushing out a little bit more.  Current thinking is that
thunderstorms over southern IN may push further south into the
Louisville Metro area in the next 1-2 hours.  While the storms have
show a general downturn in strength, they are still capable of
producing torrential rains, large hail and gusty winds for the next
couple of hours or so.

Updated forecast products are already out.


Issued at 639 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convective line that moved out of southern Indiana is slowly
progressing east-southeast through northern KY this evening.  The
storms are located roughly from Salem, IN to near Paris, KY...or
along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Storms have been pulsing
up and down producing torrential rainfall some gusty winds and
mainly pea-marble sized hail (based on social media pictures).

Severe threat is still there...limited to gusty winds and maybe an
isolated large hail report or two.  However, current thinking is
that flash flooding and local hydrologic issues will be the main
threat with this line.  Dual-pol radar analysis suggests
instantaneous rainfall amounts of 3-4 in/hr are falling.  It has
been as high as 6 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  Taking into
account the storms movement we`ve generally been seeing about 1-2
inches of rainfall with these storms.  However, this area has seen
recent heavy rainfall and 2 inches of rain will likely lead to some
flooding issues.  A number of flood advisories are in effect along
and north of I-64.  We will continue to monitor the storms and
additional flash flood warnings may be required if storms repeatedly
hit the same areas.

The storms will enter the Lexington Metro area within the hour.  The
heavy rainfall there may result some typical urban hydrologic issues
over the next hour.

Interesting to note on the visible satellite imagery the amount of
mid-high level smoke coming into the region from the Canadian
wildfires.  Current convection seems to be along the northern
boundary of this smoke with little in the way of convection (or even
cumulus) down across western KY.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

NW-SE oriented line of strong thunderstorms will continue to sag
east-southeast this evening.  This will primarily affect the KLEX
terminal and perhaps the KSDF terminal for a time.  In the near
term, expect thunderstorms in and around the KLEX terminal for the
next few hours.  Visibilities and cigs will likely fluctuate as the
storms roll through with wind gusts up to 20kts.  Thunderstorms
should diminish around 01/04Z and VFR conditions should prevail.
However a dip down into the MVFR range due to overnight fog looks
likely between 01/10-13Z.

Over at KSDF, an outflow boundary from the convection to the north
will impact the terminal by 30/2315-2330.  This will shift the winds
from the southwest to the northeast and they will be gusty for a
time.  Current thinking is that storms will stay just northeast of
the terminal this evening.  However, will keep a VCTS group in
through 01/03Z and continue to monitor.  VFR conditions are expected
overnight and into the day on Wednesday.

Further south at KBWG, VFR conditions are expected this evening and
overnight.  A period of MVFR visibility due to fog may occur between
01/10-13Z...after which VFR conditions are expected for Wednesday.
Winds at KBWG will remain out of the southwest through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010058
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
858 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 856 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convection continues to churn across the region this evening.
Storms are regenerating along a boundary stretching from near Salem,
IN southeastward to near Richmond KY.  Main convection is located
generally from Salem, IN to near Shelbyville and this activity will
continue to drop east southeast.  Outflow from these storms has
pushed westward through metro Louisville and current indications are
that the storms will likely remain in the far northeastern and
eastern suburbs of the Louisville metro area for the next 1-2 hours.

While the storms in the area remain strong, the overall areal extent
of severe weather has decreased.  Therefore, the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch will be allowed to expire at 900 PM EDT.  We will keep
thunderstorms going in the forecast through about midnight EDT and
then start to let precipitation chances diminish.  Current threats
with the storms will be sub-severe hail, gusty winds and torrential
rainfall.  We will be closely watching water levels this evening.
However, calls out to the local counties suggest that runoff remains
generally good at this time.

Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

After coordination with SPC, we have expanded the watch slightly to
the southwest and extended the running time until 01Z or 900 PM EDT.

Band of convection continue to slide east-southeast across the
northern part of KY and southern IN this evening.  Cold pool
processes are starting to become more evident as the gust front is
pushing out a little bit more.  Current thinking is that
thunderstorms over southern IN may push further south into the
Louisville Metro area in the next 1-2 hours.  While the storms have
show a general downturn in strength, they are still capable of
producing torrential rains, large hail and gusty winds for the next
couple of hours or so.

Updated forecast products are already out.


Issued at 639 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convective line that moved out of southern Indiana is slowly
progressing east-southeast through northern KY this evening.  The
storms are located roughly from Salem, IN to near Paris, KY...or
along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Storms have been pulsing
up and down producing torrential rainfall some gusty winds and
mainly pea-marble sized hail (based on social media pictures).

Severe threat is still there...limited to gusty winds and maybe an
isolated large hail report or two.  However, current thinking is
that flash flooding and local hydrologic issues will be the main
threat with this line.  Dual-pol radar analysis suggests
instantaneous rainfall amounts of 3-4 in/hr are falling.  It has
been as high as 6 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  Taking into
account the storms movement we`ve generally been seeing about 1-2
inches of rainfall with these storms.  However, this area has seen
recent heavy rainfall and 2 inches of rain will likely lead to some
flooding issues.  A number of flood advisories are in effect along
and north of I-64.  We will continue to monitor the storms and
additional flash flood warnings may be required if storms repeatedly
hit the same areas.

The storms will enter the Lexington Metro area within the hour.  The
heavy rainfall there may result some typical urban hydrologic issues
over the next hour.

Interesting to note on the visible satellite imagery the amount of
mid-high level smoke coming into the region from the Canadian
wildfires.  Current convection seems to be along the northern
boundary of this smoke with little in the way of convection (or even
cumulus) down across western KY.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

NW-SE oriented line of strong thunderstorms will continue to sag
east-southeast this evening.  This will primarily affect the KLEX
terminal and perhaps the KSDF terminal for a time.  In the near
term, expect thunderstorms in and around the KLEX terminal for the
next few hours.  Visibilities and cigs will likely fluctuate as the
storms roll through with wind gusts up to 20kts.  Thunderstorms
should diminish around 01/04Z and VFR conditions should prevail.
However a dip down into the MVFR range due to overnight fog looks
likely between 01/10-13Z.

Over at KSDF, an outflow boundary from the convection to the north
will impact the terminal by 30/2315-2330.  This will shift the winds
from the southwest to the northeast and they will be gusty for a
time.  Current thinking is that storms will stay just northeast of
the terminal this evening.  However, will keep a VCTS group in
through 01/03Z and continue to monitor.  VFR conditions are expected
overnight and into the day on Wednesday.

Further south at KBWG, VFR conditions are expected this evening and
overnight.  A period of MVFR visibility due to fog may occur between
01/10-13Z...after which VFR conditions are expected for Wednesday.
Winds at KBWG will remain out of the southwest through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 010058
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
858 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 856 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convection continues to churn across the region this evening.
Storms are regenerating along a boundary stretching from near Salem,
IN southeastward to near Richmond KY.  Main convection is located
generally from Salem, IN to near Shelbyville and this activity will
continue to drop east southeast.  Outflow from these storms has
pushed westward through metro Louisville and current indications are
that the storms will likely remain in the far northeastern and
eastern suburbs of the Louisville metro area for the next 1-2 hours.

While the storms in the area remain strong, the overall areal extent
of severe weather has decreased.  Therefore, the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch will be allowed to expire at 900 PM EDT.  We will keep
thunderstorms going in the forecast through about midnight EDT and
then start to let precipitation chances diminish.  Current threats
with the storms will be sub-severe hail, gusty winds and torrential
rainfall.  We will be closely watching water levels this evening.
However, calls out to the local counties suggest that runoff remains
generally good at this time.

Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

After coordination with SPC, we have expanded the watch slightly to
the southwest and extended the running time until 01Z or 900 PM EDT.

Band of convection continue to slide east-southeast across the
northern part of KY and southern IN this evening.  Cold pool
processes are starting to become more evident as the gust front is
pushing out a little bit more.  Current thinking is that
thunderstorms over southern IN may push further south into the
Louisville Metro area in the next 1-2 hours.  While the storms have
show a general downturn in strength, they are still capable of
producing torrential rains, large hail and gusty winds for the next
couple of hours or so.

Updated forecast products are already out.


Issued at 639 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convective line that moved out of southern Indiana is slowly
progressing east-southeast through northern KY this evening.  The
storms are located roughly from Salem, IN to near Paris, KY...or
along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Storms have been pulsing
up and down producing torrential rainfall some gusty winds and
mainly pea-marble sized hail (based on social media pictures).

Severe threat is still there...limited to gusty winds and maybe an
isolated large hail report or two.  However, current thinking is
that flash flooding and local hydrologic issues will be the main
threat with this line.  Dual-pol radar analysis suggests
instantaneous rainfall amounts of 3-4 in/hr are falling.  It has
been as high as 6 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  Taking into
account the storms movement we`ve generally been seeing about 1-2
inches of rainfall with these storms.  However, this area has seen
recent heavy rainfall and 2 inches of rain will likely lead to some
flooding issues.  A number of flood advisories are in effect along
and north of I-64.  We will continue to monitor the storms and
additional flash flood warnings may be required if storms repeatedly
hit the same areas.

The storms will enter the Lexington Metro area within the hour.  The
heavy rainfall there may result some typical urban hydrologic issues
over the next hour.

Interesting to note on the visible satellite imagery the amount of
mid-high level smoke coming into the region from the Canadian
wildfires.  Current convection seems to be along the northern
boundary of this smoke with little in the way of convection (or even
cumulus) down across western KY.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

NW-SE oriented line of strong thunderstorms will continue to sag
east-southeast this evening.  This will primarily affect the KLEX
terminal and perhaps the KSDF terminal for a time.  In the near
term, expect thunderstorms in and around the KLEX terminal for the
next few hours.  Visibilities and cigs will likely fluctuate as the
storms roll through with wind gusts up to 20kts.  Thunderstorms
should diminish around 01/04Z and VFR conditions should prevail.
However a dip down into the MVFR range due to overnight fog looks
likely between 01/10-13Z.

Over at KSDF, an outflow boundary from the convection to the north
will impact the terminal by 30/2315-2330.  This will shift the winds
from the southwest to the northeast and they will be gusty for a
time.  Current thinking is that storms will stay just northeast of
the terminal this evening.  However, will keep a VCTS group in
through 01/03Z and continue to monitor.  VFR conditions are expected
overnight and into the day on Wednesday.

Further south at KBWG, VFR conditions are expected this evening and
overnight.  A period of MVFR visibility due to fog may occur between
01/10-13Z...after which VFR conditions are expected for Wednesday.
Winds at KBWG will remain out of the southwest through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010058
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
858 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 856 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convection continues to churn across the region this evening.
Storms are regenerating along a boundary stretching from near Salem,
IN southeastward to near Richmond KY.  Main convection is located
generally from Salem, IN to near Shelbyville and this activity will
continue to drop east southeast.  Outflow from these storms has
pushed westward through metro Louisville and current indications are
that the storms will likely remain in the far northeastern and
eastern suburbs of the Louisville metro area for the next 1-2 hours.

While the storms in the area remain strong, the overall areal extent
of severe weather has decreased.  Therefore, the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch will be allowed to expire at 900 PM EDT.  We will keep
thunderstorms going in the forecast through about midnight EDT and
then start to let precipitation chances diminish.  Current threats
with the storms will be sub-severe hail, gusty winds and torrential
rainfall.  We will be closely watching water levels this evening.
However, calls out to the local counties suggest that runoff remains
generally good at this time.

Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

After coordination with SPC, we have expanded the watch slightly to
the southwest and extended the running time until 01Z or 900 PM EDT.

Band of convection continue to slide east-southeast across the
northern part of KY and southern IN this evening.  Cold pool
processes are starting to become more evident as the gust front is
pushing out a little bit more.  Current thinking is that
thunderstorms over southern IN may push further south into the
Louisville Metro area in the next 1-2 hours.  While the storms have
show a general downturn in strength, they are still capable of
producing torrential rains, large hail and gusty winds for the next
couple of hours or so.

Updated forecast products are already out.


Issued at 639 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convective line that moved out of southern Indiana is slowly
progressing east-southeast through northern KY this evening.  The
storms are located roughly from Salem, IN to near Paris, KY...or
along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Storms have been pulsing
up and down producing torrential rainfall some gusty winds and
mainly pea-marble sized hail (based on social media pictures).

Severe threat is still there...limited to gusty winds and maybe an
isolated large hail report or two.  However, current thinking is
that flash flooding and local hydrologic issues will be the main
threat with this line.  Dual-pol radar analysis suggests
instantaneous rainfall amounts of 3-4 in/hr are falling.  It has
been as high as 6 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  Taking into
account the storms movement we`ve generally been seeing about 1-2
inches of rainfall with these storms.  However, this area has seen
recent heavy rainfall and 2 inches of rain will likely lead to some
flooding issues.  A number of flood advisories are in effect along
and north of I-64.  We will continue to monitor the storms and
additional flash flood warnings may be required if storms repeatedly
hit the same areas.

The storms will enter the Lexington Metro area within the hour.  The
heavy rainfall there may result some typical urban hydrologic issues
over the next hour.

Interesting to note on the visible satellite imagery the amount of
mid-high level smoke coming into the region from the Canadian
wildfires.  Current convection seems to be along the northern
boundary of this smoke with little in the way of convection (or even
cumulus) down across western KY.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

NW-SE oriented line of strong thunderstorms will continue to sag
east-southeast this evening.  This will primarily affect the KLEX
terminal and perhaps the KSDF terminal for a time.  In the near
term, expect thunderstorms in and around the KLEX terminal for the
next few hours.  Visibilities and cigs will likely fluctuate as the
storms roll through with wind gusts up to 20kts.  Thunderstorms
should diminish around 01/04Z and VFR conditions should prevail.
However a dip down into the MVFR range due to overnight fog looks
likely between 01/10-13Z.

Over at KSDF, an outflow boundary from the convection to the north
will impact the terminal by 30/2315-2330.  This will shift the winds
from the southwest to the northeast and they will be gusty for a
time.  Current thinking is that storms will stay just northeast of
the terminal this evening.  However, will keep a VCTS group in
through 01/03Z and continue to monitor.  VFR conditions are expected
overnight and into the day on Wednesday.

Further south at KBWG, VFR conditions are expected this evening and
overnight.  A period of MVFR visibility due to fog may occur between
01/10-13Z...after which VFR conditions are expected for Wednesday.
Winds at KBWG will remain out of the southwest through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302343
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

After coordination with SPC, we have expanded the watch slightly to
the southwest and extended the running time until 01Z or 900 PM EDT.

Band of convection continue to slide east-southeast across the
northern part of KY and southern IN this evening.  Cold pool
processes are starting to become more evident as the gust front is
pushing out a little bit more.  Current thinking is that
thunderstorms over southern IN may push further south into the
Louisville Metro area in the next 1-2 hours.  While the storms have
show a general downturn in strength, they are still capable of
producing torrential rains, large hail and gusty winds for the next
couple of hours or so.

Updated forecast products are already out.


Issued at 639 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convective line that moved out of southern Indiana is slowly
progressing east-southeast through northern KY this evening.  The
storms are located roughly from Salem, IN to near Paris, KY...or
along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Storms have been pulsing
up and down producing torrential rainfall some gusty winds and
mainly pea-marble sized hail (based on social media pictures).

Severe threat is still there...limited to gusty winds and maybe an
isolated large hail report or two.  However, current thinking is
that flash flooding and local hydrologic issues will be the main
threat with this line.  Dual-pol radar analysis suggests
instantaneous rainfall amounts of 3-4 in/hr are falling.  It has
been as high as 6 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  Taking into
account the storms movement we`ve generally been seeing about 1-2
inches of rainfall with these storms.  However, this area has seen
recent heavy rainfall and 2 inches of rain will likely lead to some
flooding issues.  A number of flood advisories are in effect along
and north of I-64.  We will continue to monitor the storms and
additional flash flood warnings may be required if storms repeatedly
hit the same areas.

The storms will enter the Lexington Metro area within the hour.  The
heavy rainfall there may result some typical urban hydrologic issues
over the next hour.

Interesting to note on the visible satellite imagery the amount of
mid-high level smoke coming into the region from the Canadian
wildfires.  Current convection seems to be along the northern
boundary of this smoke with little in the way of convection (or even
cumulus) down across western KY.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

NW-SE oriented line of strong thunderstorms will continue to sag
east-southeast this evening.  This will primarily affect the KLEX
terminal and perhaps the KSDF terminal for a time.  In the near
term, expect thunderstorms in and around the KLEX terminal for the
next few hours.  Visibilities and cigs will likely fluctuate as the
storms roll through with wind gusts up to 20kts.  Thunderstorms
should diminish around 01/04Z and VFR conditions should prevail.
However a dip down into the MVFR range due to overnight fog looks
likely between 01/10-13Z.

Over at KSDF, an outflow boundary from the convection to the north
will impact the terminal by 30/2315-2330.  This will shift the winds
from the southwest to the northeast and they will be gusty for a
time.  Current thinking is that storms will stay just northeast of
the terminal this evening.  However, will keep a VCTS group in
through 01/03Z and continue to monitor.  VFR conditions are expected
overnight and into the day on Wednesday.

Further south at KBWG, VFR conditions are expected this evening and
overnight.  A period of MVFR visibility due to fog may occur between
01/10-13Z...after which VFR conditions are expected for Wednesday.
Winds at KBWG will remain out of the southwest through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 302343
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

After coordination with SPC, we have expanded the watch slightly to
the southwest and extended the running time until 01Z or 900 PM EDT.

Band of convection continue to slide east-southeast across the
northern part of KY and southern IN this evening.  Cold pool
processes are starting to become more evident as the gust front is
pushing out a little bit more.  Current thinking is that
thunderstorms over southern IN may push further south into the
Louisville Metro area in the next 1-2 hours.  While the storms have
show a general downturn in strength, they are still capable of
producing torrential rains, large hail and gusty winds for the next
couple of hours or so.

Updated forecast products are already out.


Issued at 639 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convective line that moved out of southern Indiana is slowly
progressing east-southeast through northern KY this evening.  The
storms are located roughly from Salem, IN to near Paris, KY...or
along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Storms have been pulsing
up and down producing torrential rainfall some gusty winds and
mainly pea-marble sized hail (based on social media pictures).

Severe threat is still there...limited to gusty winds and maybe an
isolated large hail report or two.  However, current thinking is
that flash flooding and local hydrologic issues will be the main
threat with this line.  Dual-pol radar analysis suggests
instantaneous rainfall amounts of 3-4 in/hr are falling.  It has
been as high as 6 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  Taking into
account the storms movement we`ve generally been seeing about 1-2
inches of rainfall with these storms.  However, this area has seen
recent heavy rainfall and 2 inches of rain will likely lead to some
flooding issues.  A number of flood advisories are in effect along
and north of I-64.  We will continue to monitor the storms and
additional flash flood warnings may be required if storms repeatedly
hit the same areas.

The storms will enter the Lexington Metro area within the hour.  The
heavy rainfall there may result some typical urban hydrologic issues
over the next hour.

Interesting to note on the visible satellite imagery the amount of
mid-high level smoke coming into the region from the Canadian
wildfires.  Current convection seems to be along the northern
boundary of this smoke with little in the way of convection (or even
cumulus) down across western KY.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

NW-SE oriented line of strong thunderstorms will continue to sag
east-southeast this evening.  This will primarily affect the KLEX
terminal and perhaps the KSDF terminal for a time.  In the near
term, expect thunderstorms in and around the KLEX terminal for the
next few hours.  Visibilities and cigs will likely fluctuate as the
storms roll through with wind gusts up to 20kts.  Thunderstorms
should diminish around 01/04Z and VFR conditions should prevail.
However a dip down into the MVFR range due to overnight fog looks
likely between 01/10-13Z.

Over at KSDF, an outflow boundary from the convection to the north
will impact the terminal by 30/2315-2330.  This will shift the winds
from the southwest to the northeast and they will be gusty for a
time.  Current thinking is that storms will stay just northeast of
the terminal this evening.  However, will keep a VCTS group in
through 01/03Z and continue to monitor.  VFR conditions are expected
overnight and into the day on Wednesday.

Further south at KBWG, VFR conditions are expected this evening and
overnight.  A period of MVFR visibility due to fog may occur between
01/10-13Z...after which VFR conditions are expected for Wednesday.
Winds at KBWG will remain out of the southwest through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302343
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

After coordination with SPC, we have expanded the watch slightly to
the southwest and extended the running time until 01Z or 900 PM EDT.

Band of convection continue to slide east-southeast across the
northern part of KY and southern IN this evening.  Cold pool
processes are starting to become more evident as the gust front is
pushing out a little bit more.  Current thinking is that
thunderstorms over southern IN may push further south into the
Louisville Metro area in the next 1-2 hours.  While the storms have
show a general downturn in strength, they are still capable of
producing torrential rains, large hail and gusty winds for the next
couple of hours or so.

Updated forecast products are already out.


Issued at 639 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convective line that moved out of southern Indiana is slowly
progressing east-southeast through northern KY this evening.  The
storms are located roughly from Salem, IN to near Paris, KY...or
along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Storms have been pulsing
up and down producing torrential rainfall some gusty winds and
mainly pea-marble sized hail (based on social media pictures).

Severe threat is still there...limited to gusty winds and maybe an
isolated large hail report or two.  However, current thinking is
that flash flooding and local hydrologic issues will be the main
threat with this line.  Dual-pol radar analysis suggests
instantaneous rainfall amounts of 3-4 in/hr are falling.  It has
been as high as 6 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  Taking into
account the storms movement we`ve generally been seeing about 1-2
inches of rainfall with these storms.  However, this area has seen
recent heavy rainfall and 2 inches of rain will likely lead to some
flooding issues.  A number of flood advisories are in effect along
and north of I-64.  We will continue to monitor the storms and
additional flash flood warnings may be required if storms repeatedly
hit the same areas.

The storms will enter the Lexington Metro area within the hour.  The
heavy rainfall there may result some typical urban hydrologic issues
over the next hour.

Interesting to note on the visible satellite imagery the amount of
mid-high level smoke coming into the region from the Canadian
wildfires.  Current convection seems to be along the northern
boundary of this smoke with little in the way of convection (or even
cumulus) down across western KY.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

NW-SE oriented line of strong thunderstorms will continue to sag
east-southeast this evening.  This will primarily affect the KLEX
terminal and perhaps the KSDF terminal for a time.  In the near
term, expect thunderstorms in and around the KLEX terminal for the
next few hours.  Visibilities and cigs will likely fluctuate as the
storms roll through with wind gusts up to 20kts.  Thunderstorms
should diminish around 01/04Z and VFR conditions should prevail.
However a dip down into the MVFR range due to overnight fog looks
likely between 01/10-13Z.

Over at KSDF, an outflow boundary from the convection to the north
will impact the terminal by 30/2315-2330.  This will shift the winds
from the southwest to the northeast and they will be gusty for a
time.  Current thinking is that storms will stay just northeast of
the terminal this evening.  However, will keep a VCTS group in
through 01/03Z and continue to monitor.  VFR conditions are expected
overnight and into the day on Wednesday.

Further south at KBWG, VFR conditions are expected this evening and
overnight.  A period of MVFR visibility due to fog may occur between
01/10-13Z...after which VFR conditions are expected for Wednesday.
Winds at KBWG will remain out of the southwest through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 302343
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

After coordination with SPC, we have expanded the watch slightly to
the southwest and extended the running time until 01Z or 900 PM EDT.

Band of convection continue to slide east-southeast across the
northern part of KY and southern IN this evening.  Cold pool
processes are starting to become more evident as the gust front is
pushing out a little bit more.  Current thinking is that
thunderstorms over southern IN may push further south into the
Louisville Metro area in the next 1-2 hours.  While the storms have
show a general downturn in strength, they are still capable of
producing torrential rains, large hail and gusty winds for the next
couple of hours or so.

Updated forecast products are already out.


Issued at 639 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convective line that moved out of southern Indiana is slowly
progressing east-southeast through northern KY this evening.  The
storms are located roughly from Salem, IN to near Paris, KY...or
along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Storms have been pulsing
up and down producing torrential rainfall some gusty winds and
mainly pea-marble sized hail (based on social media pictures).

Severe threat is still there...limited to gusty winds and maybe an
isolated large hail report or two.  However, current thinking is
that flash flooding and local hydrologic issues will be the main
threat with this line.  Dual-pol radar analysis suggests
instantaneous rainfall amounts of 3-4 in/hr are falling.  It has
been as high as 6 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  Taking into
account the storms movement we`ve generally been seeing about 1-2
inches of rainfall with these storms.  However, this area has seen
recent heavy rainfall and 2 inches of rain will likely lead to some
flooding issues.  A number of flood advisories are in effect along
and north of I-64.  We will continue to monitor the storms and
additional flash flood warnings may be required if storms repeatedly
hit the same areas.

The storms will enter the Lexington Metro area within the hour.  The
heavy rainfall there may result some typical urban hydrologic issues
over the next hour.

Interesting to note on the visible satellite imagery the amount of
mid-high level smoke coming into the region from the Canadian
wildfires.  Current convection seems to be along the northern
boundary of this smoke with little in the way of convection (or even
cumulus) down across western KY.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

NW-SE oriented line of strong thunderstorms will continue to sag
east-southeast this evening.  This will primarily affect the KLEX
terminal and perhaps the KSDF terminal for a time.  In the near
term, expect thunderstorms in and around the KLEX terminal for the
next few hours.  Visibilities and cigs will likely fluctuate as the
storms roll through with wind gusts up to 20kts.  Thunderstorms
should diminish around 01/04Z and VFR conditions should prevail.
However a dip down into the MVFR range due to overnight fog looks
likely between 01/10-13Z.

Over at KSDF, an outflow boundary from the convection to the north
will impact the terminal by 30/2315-2330.  This will shift the winds
from the southwest to the northeast and they will be gusty for a
time.  Current thinking is that storms will stay just northeast of
the terminal this evening.  However, will keep a VCTS group in
through 01/03Z and continue to monitor.  VFR conditions are expected
overnight and into the day on Wednesday.

Further south at KBWG, VFR conditions are expected this evening and
overnight.  A period of MVFR visibility due to fog may occur between
01/10-13Z...after which VFR conditions are expected for Wednesday.
Winds at KBWG will remain out of the southwest through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302307
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
707 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 639 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convective line that moved out of southern Indiana is slowly
progressing east-southeast through northern KY this evening.  The
storms are located roughly from Salem, IN to near Paris, KY...or
along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Storms have been pulsing
up and down producing torrential rainfall some gusty winds and
mainly pea-marble sized hail (based on social media pictures).

Severe threat is still there...limited to gusty winds and maybe an
isolated large hail report or two.  However, current thinking is
that flash flooding and local hydrologic issues will be the main
threat with this line.  Dual-pol radar analysis suggests
instantaneous rainfall amounts of 3-4 in/hr are falling.  It has
been as high as 6 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  Taking into
account the storms movement we`ve generally been seeing about 1-2
inches of rainfall with these storms.  However, this area has seen
recent heavy rainfall and 2 inches of rain will likely lead to some
flooding issues.  A number of flood advisories are in effect along
and north of I-64.  We will continue to monitor the storms and
additional flash flood warnings may be required if storms repeatedly
hit the same areas.

The storms will enter the Lexington Metro area within the hour.  The
heavy rainfall there may result some typical urban hydrologic issues
over the next hour.

Interesting to note on the visible satellite imagery the amount of
mid-high level smoke coming into the region from the Canadian
wildfires.  Current convection seems to be along the northern
boundary of this smoke with little in the way of convection (or even
cumulus) down across western KY.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

NW-SE oriented line of strong thunderstorms will continue to sag
east-southeast this evening.  This will primarily affect the KLEX
terminal and perhaps the KSDF terminal for a time.  In the near
term, expect thunderstorms in and around the KLEX terminal for the
next few hours.  Visibilities and cigs will likely fluctuate as the
storms roll through with wind gusts up to 20kts.  Thunderstorms
should diminish around 01/04Z and VFR conditions should prevail.
However a dip down into the MVFR range due to overnight fog looks
likely between 01/10-13Z.

Over at KSDF, an outflow boundary from the convection to the north
will impact the terminal by 30/2315-2330.  This will shift the winds
from the southwest to the northeast and they will be gusty for a
time.  Current thinking is that storms will stay just northeast of
the terminal this evening.  However, will keep a VCTS group in
through 01/03Z and continue to monitor.  VFR conditions are expected
overnight and into the day on Wednesday.

Further south at KBWG, VFR conditions are expected this evening and
overnight.  A period of MVFR visibility due to fog may occur between
01/10-13Z...after which VFR conditions are expected for Wednesday.
Winds at KBWG will remain out of the southwest through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302307
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
707 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 639 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convective line that moved out of southern Indiana is slowly
progressing east-southeast through northern KY this evening.  The
storms are located roughly from Salem, IN to near Paris, KY...or
along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Storms have been pulsing
up and down producing torrential rainfall some gusty winds and
mainly pea-marble sized hail (based on social media pictures).

Severe threat is still there...limited to gusty winds and maybe an
isolated large hail report or two.  However, current thinking is
that flash flooding and local hydrologic issues will be the main
threat with this line.  Dual-pol radar analysis suggests
instantaneous rainfall amounts of 3-4 in/hr are falling.  It has
been as high as 6 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  Taking into
account the storms movement we`ve generally been seeing about 1-2
inches of rainfall with these storms.  However, this area has seen
recent heavy rainfall and 2 inches of rain will likely lead to some
flooding issues.  A number of flood advisories are in effect along
and north of I-64.  We will continue to monitor the storms and
additional flash flood warnings may be required if storms repeatedly
hit the same areas.

The storms will enter the Lexington Metro area within the hour.  The
heavy rainfall there may result some typical urban hydrologic issues
over the next hour.

Interesting to note on the visible satellite imagery the amount of
mid-high level smoke coming into the region from the Canadian
wildfires.  Current convection seems to be along the northern
boundary of this smoke with little in the way of convection (or even
cumulus) down across western KY.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

NW-SE oriented line of strong thunderstorms will continue to sag
east-southeast this evening.  This will primarily affect the KLEX
terminal and perhaps the KSDF terminal for a time.  In the near
term, expect thunderstorms in and around the KLEX terminal for the
next few hours.  Visibilities and cigs will likely fluctuate as the
storms roll through with wind gusts up to 20kts.  Thunderstorms
should diminish around 01/04Z and VFR conditions should prevail.
However a dip down into the MVFR range due to overnight fog looks
likely between 01/10-13Z.

Over at KSDF, an outflow boundary from the convection to the north
will impact the terminal by 30/2315-2330.  This will shift the winds
from the southwest to the northeast and they will be gusty for a
time.  Current thinking is that storms will stay just northeast of
the terminal this evening.  However, will keep a VCTS group in
through 01/03Z and continue to monitor.  VFR conditions are expected
overnight and into the day on Wednesday.

Further south at KBWG, VFR conditions are expected this evening and
overnight.  A period of MVFR visibility due to fog may occur between
01/10-13Z...after which VFR conditions are expected for Wednesday.
Winds at KBWG will remain out of the southwest through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 302240
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 639 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convective line that moved out of southern Indiana is slowly
progressing east-southeast through northern KY this evening.  The
storms are located roughly from Salem, IN to near Paris, KY...or
along and just north of the I-64 corridor.  Storms have been pulsing
up and down producing torrential rainfall some gusty winds and
mainly pea-marble sized hail (based on social media pictures).

Severe threat is still there...limited to gusty winds and maybe an
isolated large hail report or two.  However, current thinking is
that flash flooding and local hydrologic issues will be the main
threat with this line.  Dual-pol radar analysis suggests
instantaneous rainfall amounts of 3-4 in/hr are falling.  It has
been as high as 6 in/hr in some of the stronger storms.  Taking into
account the storms movement we`ve generally been seeing about 1-2
inches of rainfall with these storms.  However, this area has seen
recent heavy rainfall and 2 inches of rain will likely lead to some
flooding issues.  A number of flood advisories are in effect along
and north of I-64.  We will continue to monitor the storms and
additional flash flood warnings may be required if storms repeatedly
hit the same areas.

The storms will enter the Lexington Metro area within the hour.  The
heavy rainfall there may result some typical urban hydrologic issues
over the next hour.

Interesting to note on the visible satellite imagery the amount of
mid-high level smoke coming into the region from the Canadian
wildfires.  Current convection seems to be along the northern
boundary of this smoke with little in the way of convection (or even
cumulus) down across western KY.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
different areas.  As it stands now, KLEX and KSDF have the best
chance of seeing thunderstorm activity push in from the north later
this afternoon into early this evening.  There stands a bit less of
a chance at KBWG where storms have fired and already pushed to the
east.  In any storm that affects a site, winds will be gusty along
with brief vsby reductions into the IFR range.

Otherwise, convection will come to an end tonight.  There will once
again be a chance of some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but some
incoming clouds from the west may help to limit the fog threat.
Will introduce MVFR vsbys for now.  Otherwise, renewed chances for
showers and storms look to arrive toward the end of the valid TAF
period as yet another system pushes in from the west.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302136
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
536 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
different areas.  As it stands now, KLEX and KSDF have the best
chance of seeing thunderstorm activity push in from the north later
this afternoon into early this evening.  There stands a bit less of
a chance at KBWG where storms have fired and already pushed to the
east.  In any storm that affects a site, winds will be gusty along
with brief vsby reductions into the IFR range.

Otherwise, convection will come to an end tonight.  There will once
again be a chance of some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but some
incoming clouds from the west may help to limit the fog threat.
Will introduce MVFR vsbys for now.  Otherwise, renewed chances for
showers and storms look to arrive toward the end of the valid TAF
period as yet another system pushes in from the west.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 302136
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
536 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
different areas.  As it stands now, KLEX and KSDF have the best
chance of seeing thunderstorm activity push in from the north later
this afternoon into early this evening.  There stands a bit less of
a chance at KBWG where storms have fired and already pushed to the
east.  In any storm that affects a site, winds will be gusty along
with brief vsby reductions into the IFR range.

Otherwise, convection will come to an end tonight.  There will once
again be a chance of some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but some
incoming clouds from the west may help to limit the fog threat.
Will introduce MVFR vsbys for now.  Otherwise, renewed chances for
showers and storms look to arrive toward the end of the valid TAF
period as yet another system pushes in from the west.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302136
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
536 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 535 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Southern Indiana convective line is becoming a bit stronger this
afternoon as it interacts with a modestly unstable atmosphere to its
south.  Primary threats with this line would be large hail (around 1
inch in diameter) and gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH.  Per
coordination with the SPC, have did an areal expansion of WW 371 and
put much of the Bluegrass region (including Lexington Metro) into
the watch until 800 PM EDT.

Latest high resolution data suggests this line will sink east
southeast this evening producing some severe weather...probably
isolated to scattered reports.  The training of the cells over the
same area will also lead to hydrologic issues.  Our northeastern
third of the forecast area has seen quite a bit of rainfall over the
last few days.  Therefore, around 2 inches of rainfall or more over
a short period of time will likely result in some flash flooding.

Updated suite of forecast products to include the severe
thunderstorm watch have been sent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
different areas.  As it stands now, KLEX and KSDF have the best
chance of seeing thunderstorm activity push in from the north later
this afternoon into early this evening.  There stands a bit less of
a chance at KBWG where storms have fired and already pushed to the
east.  In any storm that affects a site, winds will be gusty along
with brief vsby reductions into the IFR range.

Otherwise, convection will come to an end tonight.  There will once
again be a chance of some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but some
incoming clouds from the west may help to limit the fog threat.
Will introduce MVFR vsbys for now.  Otherwise, renewed chances for
showers and storms look to arrive toward the end of the valid TAF
period as yet another system pushes in from the west.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301930
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
different areas.  As it stands now, KLEX and KSDF have the best
chance of seeing thunderstorm activity push in from the north later
this afternoon into early this evening.  There stands a bit less of
a chance at KBWG where storms have fired and already pushed to the
east.  In any storm that affects a site, winds will be gusty along
with brief vsby reductions into the IFR range.

Otherwise, convection will come to an end tonight.  There will once
again be a chance of some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but some
incoming clouds from the west may help to limit the fog threat.
Will introduce MVFR vsbys for now.  Otherwise, renewed chances for
showers and storms look to arrive toward the end of the valid TAF
period as yet another system pushes in from the west.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301930
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features northwesterly
flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, courtesy of an upstream ridge
across the western CONUS.  Compact PV anomalies continue to dive
through this flow, bringing chances for showers/storms to the region
through the short term period.

The forecast is unfolding mainly as expected this afternoon.  The
first concentrated round of storms affected mainly southern KY,
which was tied to a compact vort max sliding through the flow
aloft.  That has now pushed east, so expect any development behind
this activity to remain rather isolated given the lack of a focus.
Further to the north, convection has blossomed along a boundary
associated with a MCV passing through northern Ohio.  While some of
this activity may brush the far northern Bluegrass, it seems the
best cold pool surge is taking place just to the north of Harrison
County, KY.  0-3km shear vectors oriented largely west to east
support outflow outrunning the southward sagging convection, which
is what we are seeing across southwest Ohio and southern IN.

The main challenge this evening will be what happens to the
northwest.  The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest
convection will develop across eastern IL and western IN, which will
quickly slide southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening.  Latest
observations show very little in the way of surface convergence with
perhaps a subtle boundary in the area.  Therefore, am not highly
confident in widespread convective development in this region which
will slide into the LMK CWA this evening.  Therefore, will cap pops
in the 40-50 percent range until storms begin to develop and congeal
(if they ever do).  If these storms do get going, they could develop
a cold pool and slide ESE into the region, bringing a marginal hail
threat and an isolated damaging wind threat, but given the late
timing, have doubts on how robust any convection will become.

Otherwise, convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of
daytime heating.  May once again see some fog development, but high
clouds moving in from the west (and the lingering smoke plume from
Canada), may help to limit the density.

A MCS will likely develop overnight and push into western KY on
Wednesday.  Timing has slowed with this system, thus have adjusted
pops accordingly.  Many hi-res models suggest we could see some
thunderstorm development on the cold pool/differential heating
boundary of this system Wednesday afternoon.  Am not overly high on
a severe threat given that mid/high cloud cover will likely be
pretty copious limiting instability.  Therefore, agree with SPC`s
marginal risk.

On Wednesday night, another MCS is likely to develop across eastern
MO and IL, which will push into the Ohio Valley overnight.  The
latest guidance is pretty impressive with rainfall amounts, thus
will be upping QPF amounts.  Flash flood guidance is the highest
across the southwestern CWA, which is where the heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall.  That being said, 2 to locally 3 inches will be
possible across portions of southern KY, which may lead to some
hydro issues.  If guidance trends continue, a flash flood watch
could be needed.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Not much change in the extended range with the last several runs of
model data.  The upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
remain rather amplified with a trough in the eastern US and a ridge
out across the west.  The Ohio Valley will be situated in a
northwest flow regime which will keep the overall weather pattern
rather stormy and wet pattern for the remainder of the week.  The
wet pattern will be driven by a number of mid-level vorticies maxima
that will be pushing through in the mean flow aloft.  The timing of
these features will be key as to when we`ll see periods of storms
and heavy rainfall.  Two emerging signals are becoming apparent
within the guidance.  First, guidance suggests that the upper trough
may shift a bit more southward over the weekend.  This would result
in the quasi-stationary boundary setting up across southern
KY/northern TN.  Thus, weekend rains may be more contained across
southern KY than across our northern areas.  Second, a continuing
emerging signal that some mid-level ridging will attempt to work in
from the west/southwest by the late weekend and into early next
week.  However, this would simply push the quasi-stationary boundary
more north and stall it across our region, proving yet another
environment for more stormy weather.

In terms of sensible weather, partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
seen throughout the period.  Chances are, that we`ll probably see
less cloudiness in the mornings with more cloudiness in the
afternoon.  Rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout
the period with the passage of mid-level vorticity maxima coming
through.  The first of these look to push through very early in the
period (Wed Night/Thursday).  Second wave looks to push through
Friday night and Saturday.  However, the further south shift of the
aforementioned frontal boundary may result in the heavy rains/storms
being more concentrated down across the TN Valley.  More diurnally
driven convection will likely occur Sunday through Tuesday.
Greatest concentration will be across the south late in the weekend
with the concentration pulling northward early next week.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals throughout the
period due to expected cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Generally, highs will likely run in the lower to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.  A moderation of
temperatures looks likely late in the weekend and into early next
week as the boundary pushes back to the north.  Mid-upper 80s may
envelope the region by then.

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will be fairly
impressive.  Depending on where the boundary actually sets up, an
axis of heavy QPF will be possible.  Our current forecast keeps the
heaviest axis of QPF across our west and southwest.  Widespread 2-4
inches rainfall amounts look likely across our region, with locally
higher amounts possible across the south/southwest sections.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
different areas.  As it stands now, KLEX and KSDF have the best
chance of seeing thunderstorm activity push in from the north later
this afternoon into early this evening.  There stands a bit less of
a chance at KBWG where storms have fired and already pushed to the
east.  In any storm that affects a site, winds will be gusty along
with brief vsby reductions into the IFR range.

Otherwise, convection will come to an end tonight.  There will once
again be a chance of some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but some
incoming clouds from the west may help to limit the fog threat.
Will introduce MVFR vsbys for now.  Otherwise, renewed chances for
showers and storms look to arrive toward the end of the valid TAF
period as yet another system pushes in from the west.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A rather complex convective evolution appears on tap for this
afternoon.  Latest WV imagery depicts northwesterly flow across the
Ohio Valley, through which a couple of compact shortwaves were
traveling through.  It appears one of these compact waves is now
entering southern KY, which has resulted in an uptick of cu
development there over the past hour or so.  The latest HRRR is
suggestive this activity will grow in coverage through the early
afternoon hours.

Further north, there appears to be a boundary/weak cold front
associated with a remnant MCV across portions of western OH
southwest into east-central IN along which some cu and associated
showers have recently developed.  Convection could develop along
that early this afternoon, but not quite sure how far southwest this
will extend into the LMK CWA.  What seems a bit more certain is that
convection will develop further north of this area in response to
yet another wave diving through the flow.  If this occurs, this
activity may be a bit later in getting into the northern LMK CWA
(21-23Z and after).  These scenarios will bear watching over the
next few hours.  Any storm that develops could be strong to locally
severe.  Effective shear values will only be 20-30 knots, but wet
bulb zero heights of only 10-11k feet will promote a hail threat in
the stronger multicell cores.  Damaging wind will also be possible
in the strongest storms given steep low-level lapse rates and drier
air around 750mb.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
different areas.  As it stands now, KLEX and KSDF have the best
chance of seeing thunderstorm activity push in from the north later
this afternoon into early this evening.  There stands a bit less of
a chance at KBWG where storms have fired and already pushed to the
east.  In any storm that affects a site, winds will be gusty along
with brief vsby reductions into the IFR range.

Otherwise, convection will come to an end tonight.  There will once
again be a chance of some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but some
incoming clouds from the west may help to limit the fog threat.
Will introduce MVFR vsbys for now.  Otherwise, renewed chances for
showers and storms look to arrive toward the end of the valid TAF
period as yet another system pushes in from the west.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A rather complex convective evolution appears on tap for this
afternoon.  Latest WV imagery depicts northwesterly flow across the
Ohio Valley, through which a couple of compact shortwaves were
traveling through.  It appears one of these compact waves is now
entering southern KY, which has resulted in an uptick of cu
development there over the past hour or so.  The latest HRRR is
suggestive this activity will grow in coverage through the early
afternoon hours.

Further north, there appears to be a boundary/weak cold front
associated with a remnant MCV across portions of western OH
southwest into east-central IN along which some cu and associated
showers have recently developed.  Convection could develop along
that early this afternoon, but not quite sure how far southwest this
will extend into the LMK CWA.  What seems a bit more certain is that
convection will develop further north of this area in response to
yet another wave diving through the flow.  If this occurs, this
activity may be a bit later in getting into the northern LMK CWA
(21-23Z and after).  These scenarios will bear watching over the
next few hours.  Any storm that develops could be strong to locally
severe.  Effective shear values will only be 20-30 knots, but wet
bulb zero heights of only 10-11k feet will promote a hail threat in
the stronger multicell cores.  Damaging wind will also be possible
in the strongest storms given steep low-level lapse rates and drier
air around 750mb.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
different areas.  As it stands now, KLEX and KSDF have the best
chance of seeing thunderstorm activity push in from the north later
this afternoon into early this evening.  There stands a bit less of
a chance at KBWG where storms have fired and already pushed to the
east.  In any storm that affects a site, winds will be gusty along
with brief vsby reductions into the IFR range.

Otherwise, convection will come to an end tonight.  There will once
again be a chance of some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but some
incoming clouds from the west may help to limit the fog threat.
Will introduce MVFR vsbys for now.  Otherwise, renewed chances for
showers and storms look to arrive toward the end of the valid TAF
period as yet another system pushes in from the west.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A rather complex convective evolution appears on tap for this
afternoon.  Latest WV imagery depicts northwesterly flow across the
Ohio Valley, through which a couple of compact shortwaves were
traveling through.  It appears one of these compact waves is now
entering southern KY, which has resulted in an uptick of cu
development there over the past hour or so.  The latest HRRR is
suggestive this activity will grow in coverage through the early
afternoon hours.

Further north, there appears to be a boundary/weak cold front
associated with a remnant MCV across portions of western OH
southwest into east-central IN along which some cu and associated
showers have recently developed.  Convection could develop along
that early this afternoon, but not quite sure how far southwest this
will extend into the LMK CWA.  What seems a bit more certain is that
convection will develop further north of this area in response to
yet another wave diving through the flow.  If this occurs, this
activity may be a bit later in getting into the northern LMK CWA
(21-23Z and after).  These scenarios will bear watching over the
next few hours.  Any storm that develops could be strong to locally
severe.  Effective shear values will only be 20-30 knots, but wet
bulb zero heights of only 10-11k feet will promote a hail threat in
the stronger multicell cores.  Damaging wind will also be possible
in the strongest storms given steep low-level lapse rates and drier
air around 750mb.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
different areas.  As it stands now, KLEX and KSDF have the best
chance of seeing thunderstorm activity push in from the north later
this afternoon into early this evening.  There stands a bit less of
a chance at KBWG where storms have fired and already pushed to the
east.  In any storm that affects a site, winds will be gusty along
with brief vsby reductions into the IFR range.

Otherwise, convection will come to an end tonight.  There will once
again be a chance of some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but some
incoming clouds from the west may help to limit the fog threat.
Will introduce MVFR vsbys for now.  Otherwise, renewed chances for
showers and storms look to arrive toward the end of the valid TAF
period as yet another system pushes in from the west.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A rather complex convective evolution appears on tap for this
afternoon.  Latest WV imagery depicts northwesterly flow across the
Ohio Valley, through which a couple of compact shortwaves were
traveling through.  It appears one of these compact waves is now
entering southern KY, which has resulted in an uptick of cu
development there over the past hour or so.  The latest HRRR is
suggestive this activity will grow in coverage through the early
afternoon hours.

Further north, there appears to be a boundary/weak cold front
associated with a remnant MCV across portions of western OH
southwest into east-central IN along which some cu and associated
showers have recently developed.  Convection could develop along
that early this afternoon, but not quite sure how far southwest this
will extend into the LMK CWA.  What seems a bit more certain is that
convection will develop further north of this area in response to
yet another wave diving through the flow.  If this occurs, this
activity may be a bit later in getting into the northern LMK CWA
(21-23Z and after).  These scenarios will bear watching over the
next few hours.  Any storm that develops could be strong to locally
severe.  Effective shear values will only be 20-30 knots, but wet
bulb zero heights of only 10-11k feet will promote a hail threat in
the stronger multicell cores.  Damaging wind will also be possible
in the strongest storms given steep low-level lapse rates and drier
air around 750mb.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
different areas.  As it stands now, KLEX and KSDF have the best
chance of seeing thunderstorm activity push in from the north later
this afternoon into early this evening.  There stands a bit less of
a chance at KBWG where storms have fired and already pushed to the
east.  In any storm that affects a site, winds will be gusty along
with brief vsby reductions into the IFR range.

Otherwise, convection will come to an end tonight.  There will once
again be a chance of some light fog at KBWG and/or KLEX, but some
incoming clouds from the west may help to limit the fog threat.
Will introduce MVFR vsbys for now.  Otherwise, renewed chances for
showers and storms look to arrive toward the end of the valid TAF
period as yet another system pushes in from the west.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301505
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1105 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A rather complex convective evolution appears on tap for this
afternoon.  Latest WV imagery depicts northwesterly flow across the
Ohio Valley, through which a couple of compact shortwaves were
traveling through.  It appears one of these compact waves is now
entering southern KY, which has resulted in an uptick of cu
development there over the past hour or so.  The latest HRRR is
suggestive this activity will grow in coverage through the early
afternoon hours.

Further north, there appears to be a boundary/weak cold front
associated with a remnant MCV across portions of western OH
southwest into east-central IN along which some cu and associated
showers have recently developed.  Convection could develop along
that early this afternoon, but not quite sure how far southwest this
will extend into the LMK CWA.  What seems a bit more certain is that
convection will develop further north of this area in response to
yet another wave diving through the flow.  If this occurs, this
activity may be a bit later in getting into the northern LMK CWA
(21-23Z and after).  These scenarios will bear watching over the
next few hours.  Any storm that develops could be strong to locally
severe.  Effective shear values will only be 20-30 knots, but wet
bulb zero heights of only 10-11k feet will promote a hail threat in
the stronger multicell cores.  Damaging wind will also be possible
in the strongest storms given steep low-level lapse rates and drier
air around 750mb.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Do have some reduced visibilities in the KBWG/KLEX corridor. These
should improve over the next hour or two.  Next up will be rain
chances. Expect scattered storms to start developing by late
morning, with best coverage in the mid to late afternoon. Tried to
time the tempo groups with the highest rain chances in the public
forecast, with chance for gusty winds and at least MVFR conditions
at KLEX/KSDF. Winds will become variable as storms dies down this
evening. Cannot rule out additional fog Wednesday morning, but that
will depend on timing and location of today`s storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convection to our west is fading fast, leaving only light stratiform
rain in its wake. Still, we should see some clouds move across the
Louisville metro for a few hours this morning...enough to change the
forecast wording from mostly sunny to mostly cloudy for the day.
Tweaked hourly pops as well, but overall 12-hour rain chances remain
the same.

Other change was to expand the fog wording, with areas covering more
area. Latest satellite fog product shows a stretch along the middle
of the forecast area that matches up with observations of reduced
visibilities. Issued a special weather statement about this fog
earlier.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Do have some reduced visibilities in the KBWG/KLEX corridor. These
should improve over the next hour or two.  Next up will be rain
chances. Expect scattered storms to start developing by late
morning, with best coverage in the mid to late afternoon. Tried to
time the tempo groups with the highest rain chances in the public
forecast, with chance for gusty winds and at least MVFR conditions
at KLEX/KSDF. Winds will become variable as storms dies down this
evening. Cannot rule out additional fog Wednesday morning, but that
will depend on timing and location of today`s storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convection to our west is fading fast, leaving only light stratiform
rain in its wake. Still, we should see some clouds move across the
Louisville metro for a few hours this morning...enough to change the
forecast wording from mostly sunny to mostly cloudy for the day.
Tweaked hourly pops as well, but overall 12-hour rain chances remain
the same.

Other change was to expand the fog wording, with areas covering more
area. Latest satellite fog product shows a stretch along the middle
of the forecast area that matches up with observations of reduced
visibilities. Issued a special weather statement about this fog
earlier.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Do have some reduced visibilities in the KBWG/KLEX corridor. These
should improve over the next hour or two.  Next up will be rain
chances. Expect scattered storms to start developing by late
morning, with best coverage in the mid to late afternoon. Tried to
time the tempo groups with the highest rain chances in the public
forecast, with chance for gusty winds and at least MVFR conditions
at KLEX/KSDF. Winds will become variable as storms dies down this
evening. Cannot rule out additional fog Wednesday morning, but that
will depend on timing and location of today`s storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301025
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
625 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convection to our west is fading fast, leaving only light stratiform
rain in its wake. Still, we should see some clouds move across the
Louisville metro for a few hours this morning...enough to change the
forecast wording from mostly sunny to mostly cloudy for the day.
Tweaked hourly pops as well, but overall 12-hour rain chances remain
the same.

Other change was to expand the fog wording, with areas covering more
area. Latest satellite fog product shows a stretch along the middle
of the forecast area that matches up with observations of reduced
visibilities. Issued a special weather statement about this fog
earlier.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

MVFR visbys will be possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now,
plan on keeping things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due
to fog for a time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are
expected tomorrow with gusty southwest winds. An upper disturbance
comes down during peak heating this afternoon and generates
scattered storms. Have enough confidence to put in vicinity wording
at KSDF/KLEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301025
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
625 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convection to our west is fading fast, leaving only light stratiform
rain in its wake. Still, we should see some clouds move across the
Louisville metro for a few hours this morning...enough to change the
forecast wording from mostly sunny to mostly cloudy for the day.
Tweaked hourly pops as well, but overall 12-hour rain chances remain
the same.

Other change was to expand the fog wording, with areas covering more
area. Latest satellite fog product shows a stretch along the middle
of the forecast area that matches up with observations of reduced
visibilities. Issued a special weather statement about this fog
earlier.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

MVFR visbys will be possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now,
plan on keeping things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due
to fog for a time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are
expected tomorrow with gusty southwest winds. An upper disturbance
comes down during peak heating this afternoon and generates
scattered storms. Have enough confidence to put in vicinity wording
at KSDF/KLEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301025
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
625 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convection to our west is fading fast, leaving only light stratiform
rain in its wake. Still, we should see some clouds move across the
Louisville metro for a few hours this morning...enough to change the
forecast wording from mostly sunny to mostly cloudy for the day.
Tweaked hourly pops as well, but overall 12-hour rain chances remain
the same.

Other change was to expand the fog wording, with areas covering more
area. Latest satellite fog product shows a stretch along the middle
of the forecast area that matches up with observations of reduced
visibilities. Issued a special weather statement about this fog
earlier.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

MVFR visbys will be possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now,
plan on keeping things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due
to fog for a time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are
expected tomorrow with gusty southwest winds. An upper disturbance
comes down during peak heating this afternoon and generates
scattered storms. Have enough confidence to put in vicinity wording
at KSDF/KLEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301025
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
625 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Convection to our west is fading fast, leaving only light stratiform
rain in its wake. Still, we should see some clouds move across the
Louisville metro for a few hours this morning...enough to change the
forecast wording from mostly sunny to mostly cloudy for the day.
Tweaked hourly pops as well, but overall 12-hour rain chances remain
the same.

Other change was to expand the fog wording, with areas covering more
area. Latest satellite fog product shows a stretch along the middle
of the forecast area that matches up with observations of reduced
visibilities. Issued a special weather statement about this fog
earlier.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

MVFR visbys will be possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now,
plan on keeping things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due
to fog for a time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are
expected tomorrow with gusty southwest winds. An upper disturbance
comes down during peak heating this afternoon and generates
scattered storms. Have enough confidence to put in vicinity wording
at KSDF/KLEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300729
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

MVFR visbys will be possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now,
plan on keeping things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due
to fog for a time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are
expected tomorrow with gusty southwest winds. An upper disturbance
comes down during peak heating this afternoon and generates
scattered storms. Have enough confidence to put in vicinity wording
at KSDF/KLEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300729
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

MVFR visbys will be possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now,
plan on keeping things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due
to fog for a time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are
expected tomorrow with gusty southwest winds. An upper disturbance
comes down during peak heating this afternoon and generates
scattered storms. Have enough confidence to put in vicinity wording
at KSDF/KLEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300729
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

A shortwave, noted on early morning water vapor imagery, is sparking
off a few elevated storms across southern IL. These are on track to
reach our western CWA before daybreak, so have added in some rain
chances. Main feature should be another another shortwave, now over
central Wisconsin. This feature is sparking storms over east central
Illinois. Expect lift associated with this system to reach our
northern counties by late morning. Clearing ahead of it should allow
for some heating and subsequent storm development.

The early onset of precip may make it difficult for storms to get
too strong. Still, soundings indicate some potential for near-severe
downbursts as well as wet bulb temperatures a little lower than
Monday, leading to perhaps some hail reports.

With loss of heating, we should see coverage of storms diminish.
Then expect an MCS to develop over the MO/IA region overnight and
head southeast toward our region for Wednesday morning and leading
to likely rain showers/storms through the day. Given the cloud
cover, expect temperatures to be cooler for Wednesday, compared
today`s highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

Overall upper pattern will continue to feature ridging across the
western CONUS, with varying amplitude troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The combination of embedded disturbances within the NW flow
aloft over the Ohio River Valley, and a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary in the vicinity will continue to bring rounds of showers
and storms through the weekend. While models generally agree on the
pattern, main challenges will be timing of individual perturbations
within the NW flow over the Ohio River Valley, and with positioning
of a frontal boundary that stalls out somewhere near or over our CWA
to end the week and through the weekend. Current data would suggest
that 2-3 inches of rain will be possible across central and southern
KY through early next week. Locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out.

Wednesday Night - Sunday Night...

Sensible weather under this pattern through the end of the week will
feature rounds of showers and t-storms associated with individual
disturbances and peak heating. Given conditional destabilization
each day and general enhancements in deep layer shear with each
disturbance, a risk of severe storms will be possible south of where
the boundary sets up. As has been the case, localized damaging winds
and very heavy rain will be the main threats along with marginally
severe hail and lots of cloud to ground lightning. Overall, models
have trended a bit further south with placement of synoptic features
which will put the focus for heaviest rain and most activity over
central and southern KY.

High temperatures during this time will generally be characterized by
upper 70s and low 80s, dependent on thunderstorm activity and
placement of the synoptic boundary each day. Lows each night will
generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Monday...

As we start the new work week, upper pattern looks to flatten out a
bit as southern CONUS ridging pumps up. This would likely bring an
increase in temperatures/humidity with a continued active pattern as
more disturbances dive through the flow. Highs during this time will
likely begin to rise to the 85-90 range.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

MVFR visbys will be possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now,
plan on keeping things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due
to fog for a time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are
expected tomorrow with gusty southwest winds. An upper disturbance
comes down during peak heating this afternoon and generates
scattered storms. Have enough confidence to put in vicinity wording
at KSDF/KLEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300526
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection is a little slower to move out of southern KY than
previously forecast.  Therefore, updated the forecast to keep
thunderstorms going down in the Lake Cumberland region for a few
more hours.  Also have a small arcing line of convection from
central IN down into northern KY.  These storms may glance our
southeastern IN counties and the northern Bluegrass region.  We
still expect these storms to die out later this evening with the
loss of heating.  For this reason, have increased PoPs slightly
across our far northeastern sections.

Otherwise, rest of the forecast remains generally intact.  Current
thinking is that fog will be our main concern overnight.  This is
especially true down across central and southern KY where afternoon
rains have made for a rich moisture laden atmosphere.  Fog is likely
to start develop after midnight and become most dense between 3-8 AM
local time.

Issued at 830 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

After coordination with SPC and WFO JKL and ILN, have gone ahead and
drop the remaining portion of Tornado Watch #369.  We still have
some lingering convection down across our southern KY counties.
This activity should continue to diminish over the next hour or so
with the loss of daytime heating and instability.

Will probably do one more update after the storms in southern KY
exit the region.  Looking ahead to the overnight period, we expect
partly cloudy skies with some patchy fog developing.  The fog could
be dense in some locations, especially those that saw rainfall this
afternoon.  For now, have painted in the grids some fog mainly south
of the WK and BG Parkways.  Fog would likely be most prominent
between 3 and 8 AM EDT.

Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Did a quick update to drop a large chunk of Tornado Watch #369.
Basically clear out much of the northeast and central sections of
the watch, but did leave our southern tier of counties in for the
time being.  Based on current radar trends and coordination with SPC
we`re likely to drop the rest of the watch in the next hour or so.

Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

MVFR visbys will be possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now,
plan on keeping things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due
to fog for a time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are
expected tomorrow with gusty southwest winds. An upper disturbance
comes down during peak heating this afternoon and generates
scattered storms. Have enough confidence to put in vicinity wording
at KSDF/KLEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300526
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection is a little slower to move out of southern KY than
previously forecast.  Therefore, updated the forecast to keep
thunderstorms going down in the Lake Cumberland region for a few
more hours.  Also have a small arcing line of convection from
central IN down into northern KY.  These storms may glance our
southeastern IN counties and the northern Bluegrass region.  We
still expect these storms to die out later this evening with the
loss of heating.  For this reason, have increased PoPs slightly
across our far northeastern sections.

Otherwise, rest of the forecast remains generally intact.  Current
thinking is that fog will be our main concern overnight.  This is
especially true down across central and southern KY where afternoon
rains have made for a rich moisture laden atmosphere.  Fog is likely
to start develop after midnight and become most dense between 3-8 AM
local time.

Issued at 830 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

After coordination with SPC and WFO JKL and ILN, have gone ahead and
drop the remaining portion of Tornado Watch #369.  We still have
some lingering convection down across our southern KY counties.
This activity should continue to diminish over the next hour or so
with the loss of daytime heating and instability.

Will probably do one more update after the storms in southern KY
exit the region.  Looking ahead to the overnight period, we expect
partly cloudy skies with some patchy fog developing.  The fog could
be dense in some locations, especially those that saw rainfall this
afternoon.  For now, have painted in the grids some fog mainly south
of the WK and BG Parkways.  Fog would likely be most prominent
between 3 and 8 AM EDT.

Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Did a quick update to drop a large chunk of Tornado Watch #369.
Basically clear out much of the northeast and central sections of
the watch, but did leave our southern tier of counties in for the
time being.  Based on current radar trends and coordination with SPC
we`re likely to drop the rest of the watch in the next hour or so.

Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

MVFR visbys will be possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now,
plan on keeping things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due
to fog for a time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are
expected tomorrow with gusty southwest winds. An upper disturbance
comes down during peak heating this afternoon and generates
scattered storms. Have enough confidence to put in vicinity wording
at KSDF/KLEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300526
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection is a little slower to move out of southern KY than
previously forecast.  Therefore, updated the forecast to keep
thunderstorms going down in the Lake Cumberland region for a few
more hours.  Also have a small arcing line of convection from
central IN down into northern KY.  These storms may glance our
southeastern IN counties and the northern Bluegrass region.  We
still expect these storms to die out later this evening with the
loss of heating.  For this reason, have increased PoPs slightly
across our far northeastern sections.

Otherwise, rest of the forecast remains generally intact.  Current
thinking is that fog will be our main concern overnight.  This is
especially true down across central and southern KY where afternoon
rains have made for a rich moisture laden atmosphere.  Fog is likely
to start develop after midnight and become most dense between 3-8 AM
local time.

Issued at 830 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

After coordination with SPC and WFO JKL and ILN, have gone ahead and
drop the remaining portion of Tornado Watch #369.  We still have
some lingering convection down across our southern KY counties.
This activity should continue to diminish over the next hour or so
with the loss of daytime heating and instability.

Will probably do one more update after the storms in southern KY
exit the region.  Looking ahead to the overnight period, we expect
partly cloudy skies with some patchy fog developing.  The fog could
be dense in some locations, especially those that saw rainfall this
afternoon.  For now, have painted in the grids some fog mainly south
of the WK and BG Parkways.  Fog would likely be most prominent
between 3 and 8 AM EDT.

Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Did a quick update to drop a large chunk of Tornado Watch #369.
Basically clear out much of the northeast and central sections of
the watch, but did leave our southern tier of counties in for the
time being.  Based on current radar trends and coordination with SPC
we`re likely to drop the rest of the watch in the next hour or so.

Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2015

MVFR visbys will be possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now,
plan on keeping things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due
to fog for a time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are
expected tomorrow with gusty southwest winds. An upper disturbance
comes down during peak heating this afternoon and generates
scattered storms. Have enough confidence to put in vicinity wording
at KSDF/KLEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300151
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
951 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection is a little slower to move out of southern KY than
previously forecast.  Therefore, updated the forecast to keep
thunderstorms going down in the Lake Cumberland region for a few
more hours.  Also have a small arcing line of convection from
central IN down into northern KY.  These storms may glance our
southeastern IN counties and the northern Bluegrass region.  We
still expect these storms to die out later this evening with the
loss of heating.  For this reason, have increased PoPs slightly
across our far northeastern sections.

Otherwise, rest of the forecast remains generally intact.  Current
thinking is that fog will be our main concern overnight.  This is
especially true down across central and southern KY where afternoon
rains have made for a rich moisture laden atmosphere.  Fog is likely
to start develop after midnight and become most dense between 3-8 AM
local time.

Issued at 830 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

After coordination with SPC and WFO JKL and ILN, have gone ahead and
drop the remaining portion of Tornado Watch #369.  We still have
some lingering convection down across our southern KY counties.
This activity should continue to diminish over the next hour or so
with the loss of daytime heating and instability.

Will probably do one more update after the storms in southern KY
exit the region.  Looking ahead to the overnight period, we expect
partly cloudy skies with some patchy fog developing.  The fog could
be dense in some locations, especially those that saw rainfall this
afternoon.  For now, have painted in the grids some fog mainly south
of the WK and BG Parkways.  Fog would likely be most prominent
between 3 and 8 AM EDT.

Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Did a quick update to drop a large chunk of Tornado Watch #369.
Basically clear out much of the northeast and central sections of
the watch, but did leave our southern tier of counties in for the
time being.  Based on current radar trends and coordination with SPC
we`re likely to drop the rest of the watch in the next hour or so.

Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection continues to push south and east across the region this
evening.  KLEX will still see some convection through about 30/01Z
and then things will dry up.  KSDF/KBWG look to be done with
precipitation for the night.  Expect VFR conditions to continue this
evening and into the early overnight hours.   MVFR visbys will be
possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now, plan on keeping
things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due to fog for a
time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are expected
tomorrow with gusty southwest winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300151
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
951 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection is a little slower to move out of southern KY than
previously forecast.  Therefore, updated the forecast to keep
thunderstorms going down in the Lake Cumberland region for a few
more hours.  Also have a small arcing line of convection from
central IN down into northern KY.  These storms may glance our
southeastern IN counties and the northern Bluegrass region.  We
still expect these storms to die out later this evening with the
loss of heating.  For this reason, have increased PoPs slightly
across our far northeastern sections.

Otherwise, rest of the forecast remains generally intact.  Current
thinking is that fog will be our main concern overnight.  This is
especially true down across central and southern KY where afternoon
rains have made for a rich moisture laden atmosphere.  Fog is likely
to start develop after midnight and become most dense between 3-8 AM
local time.

Issued at 830 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

After coordination with SPC and WFO JKL and ILN, have gone ahead and
drop the remaining portion of Tornado Watch #369.  We still have
some lingering convection down across our southern KY counties.
This activity should continue to diminish over the next hour or so
with the loss of daytime heating and instability.

Will probably do one more update after the storms in southern KY
exit the region.  Looking ahead to the overnight period, we expect
partly cloudy skies with some patchy fog developing.  The fog could
be dense in some locations, especially those that saw rainfall this
afternoon.  For now, have painted in the grids some fog mainly south
of the WK and BG Parkways.  Fog would likely be most prominent
between 3 and 8 AM EDT.

Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Did a quick update to drop a large chunk of Tornado Watch #369.
Basically clear out much of the northeast and central sections of
the watch, but did leave our southern tier of counties in for the
time being.  Based on current radar trends and coordination with SPC
we`re likely to drop the rest of the watch in the next hour or so.

Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection continues to push south and east across the region this
evening.  KLEX will still see some convection through about 30/01Z
and then things will dry up.  KSDF/KBWG look to be done with
precipitation for the night.  Expect VFR conditions to continue this
evening and into the early overnight hours.   MVFR visbys will be
possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now, plan on keeping
things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due to fog for a
time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are expected
tomorrow with gusty southwest winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
830 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

After coordination with SPC and WFO JKL and ILN, have gone ahead and
drop the remaining portion of Tornado Watch #369.  We still have
some lingering convection down across our southern KY counties.
This activity should continue to diminish over the next hour or so
with the loss of daytime heating and instability.

Will probably do one more update after the storms in southern KY
exit the region.  Looking ahead to the overnight period, we expect
partly cloudy skies with some patchy fog developing.  The fog could
be dense in some locations, especially those that saw rainfall this
afternoon.  For now, have painted in the grids some fog mainly south
of the WK and BG Parkways.  Fog would likely be most prominent
between 3 and 8 AM EDT.

Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Did a quick update to drop a large chunk of Tornado Watch #369.
Basically clear out much of the northeast and central sections of
the watch, but did leave our southern tier of counties in for the
time being.  Based on current radar trends and coordination with SPC
we`re likely to drop the rest of the watch in the next hour or so.

Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection continues to push south and east across the region this
evening.  KLEX will still see some convection through about 30/01Z
and then things will dry up.  KSDF/KBWG look to be done with
precipitation for the night.  Expect VFR conditions to continue this
evening and into the early overnight hours.   MVFR visbys will be
possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now, plan on keeping
things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due to fog for a
time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are expected
tomorrow with gusty southwest winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
830 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

After coordination with SPC and WFO JKL and ILN, have gone ahead and
drop the remaining portion of Tornado Watch #369.  We still have
some lingering convection down across our southern KY counties.
This activity should continue to diminish over the next hour or so
with the loss of daytime heating and instability.

Will probably do one more update after the storms in southern KY
exit the region.  Looking ahead to the overnight period, we expect
partly cloudy skies with some patchy fog developing.  The fog could
be dense in some locations, especially those that saw rainfall this
afternoon.  For now, have painted in the grids some fog mainly south
of the WK and BG Parkways.  Fog would likely be most prominent
between 3 and 8 AM EDT.

Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Did a quick update to drop a large chunk of Tornado Watch #369.
Basically clear out much of the northeast and central sections of
the watch, but did leave our southern tier of counties in for the
time being.  Based on current radar trends and coordination with SPC
we`re likely to drop the rest of the watch in the next hour or so.

Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection continues to push south and east across the region this
evening.  KLEX will still see some convection through about 30/01Z
and then things will dry up.  KSDF/KBWG look to be done with
precipitation for the night.  Expect VFR conditions to continue this
evening and into the early overnight hours.   MVFR visbys will be
possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now, plan on keeping
things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due to fog for a
time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are expected
tomorrow with gusty southwest winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292337
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
737 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Did a quick update to drop a large chunk of Tornado Watch #369.
Basically clear out much of the northeast and central sections of
the watch, but did leave our southern tier of counties in for the
time being.  Based on current radar trends and coordination with SPC
we`re likely to drop the rest of the watch in the next hour or so.

Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection continues to push south and east across the region this
evening.  KLEX will still see some convection through about 30/01Z
and then things will dry up.  KSDF/KBWG look to be done with
precipitation for the night.  Expect VFR conditions to continue this
evening and into the early overnight hours.   MVFR visbys will be
possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now, plan on keeping
things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due to fog for a
time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are expected
tomorrow with gusty southwest winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292337
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
737 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Did a quick update to drop a large chunk of Tornado Watch #369.
Basically clear out much of the northeast and central sections of
the watch, but did leave our southern tier of counties in for the
time being.  Based on current radar trends and coordination with SPC
we`re likely to drop the rest of the watch in the next hour or so.

Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection continues to push south and east across the region this
evening.  KLEX will still see some convection through about 30/01Z
and then things will dry up.  KSDF/KBWG look to be done with
precipitation for the night.  Expect VFR conditions to continue this
evening and into the early overnight hours.   MVFR visbys will be
possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now, plan on keeping
things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due to fog for a
time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are expected
tomorrow with gusty southwest winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292337
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
737 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Did a quick update to drop a large chunk of Tornado Watch #369.
Basically clear out much of the northeast and central sections of
the watch, but did leave our southern tier of counties in for the
time being.  Based on current radar trends and coordination with SPC
we`re likely to drop the rest of the watch in the next hour or so.

Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection continues to push south and east across the region this
evening.  KLEX will still see some convection through about 30/01Z
and then things will dry up.  KSDF/KBWG look to be done with
precipitation for the night.  Expect VFR conditions to continue this
evening and into the early overnight hours.   MVFR visbys will be
possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now, plan on keeping
things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due to fog for a
time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are expected
tomorrow with gusty southwest winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292337
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
737 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Did a quick update to drop a large chunk of Tornado Watch #369.
Basically clear out much of the northeast and central sections of
the watch, but did leave our southern tier of counties in for the
time being.  Based on current radar trends and coordination with SPC
we`re likely to drop the rest of the watch in the next hour or so.

Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection continues to push south and east across the region this
evening.  KLEX will still see some convection through about 30/01Z
and then things will dry up.  KSDF/KBWG look to be done with
precipitation for the night.  Expect VFR conditions to continue this
evening and into the early overnight hours.   MVFR visbys will be
possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now, plan on keeping
things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due to fog for a
time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are expected
tomorrow with gusty southwest winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292316
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
716 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection continues to push south and east across the region this
evening.  KLEX will still see some convection through about 30/01Z
and then things will dry up.  KSDF/KBWG look to be done with
precipitation for the night.  Expect VFR conditions to continue this
evening and into the early overnight hours.   MVFR visbys will be
possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now, plan on keeping
things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due to fog for a
time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are expected
tomorrow with gusty southwest winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292316
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
716 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Convection continues to push south and east across the region this
evening.  KLEX will still see some convection through about 30/01Z
and then things will dry up.  KSDF/KBWG look to be done with
precipitation for the night.  Expect VFR conditions to continue this
evening and into the early overnight hours.   MVFR visbys will be
possible overnight at KLEX and KBWG.  Right now, plan on keeping
things at MVFR, but we could see IFR conditions due to fog for a
time (probably between 30/08-12Z).  VFR conditions are expected
tomorrow with gusty southwest winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292217
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The TAF period will be characterized by generally VFR conditions,
with brief restrictions possible in thunderstorms this afternoon.
Thunderstorms have already begun to form near the Ohio River, with
coverage expected to increase this afternoon across southern and
east-central KY, mainly affecting KLEX and KBWG.  Brief restrictions
are possible in any storm with gusty winds.

Otherwise, skies will go partly cloudy overnight.  Some light fog
will be possible at KBWG where winds will be the lightest, but
confidence in fog occurrence is not very high.  Confidence will
increase if KBWG receives rain this afternoon/evening.  Tuesday will
begin as VFR with additional scattered storms possible, but
most will be after this valid TAF period and into the SDF planning
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292217
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The TAF period will be characterized by generally VFR conditions,
with brief restrictions possible in thunderstorms this afternoon.
Thunderstorms have already begun to form near the Ohio River, with
coverage expected to increase this afternoon across southern and
east-central KY, mainly affecting KLEX and KBWG.  Brief restrictions
are possible in any storm with gusty winds.

Otherwise, skies will go partly cloudy overnight.  Some light fog
will be possible at KBWG where winds will be the lightest, but
confidence in fog occurrence is not very high.  Confidence will
increase if KBWG receives rain this afternoon/evening.  Tuesday will
begin as VFR with additional scattered storms possible, but
most will be after this valid TAF period and into the SDF planning
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292217
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The TAF period will be characterized by generally VFR conditions,
with brief restrictions possible in thunderstorms this afternoon.
Thunderstorms have already begun to form near the Ohio River, with
coverage expected to increase this afternoon across southern and
east-central KY, mainly affecting KLEX and KBWG.  Brief restrictions
are possible in any storm with gusty winds.

Otherwise, skies will go partly cloudy overnight.  Some light fog
will be possible at KBWG where winds will be the lightest, but
confidence in fog occurrence is not very high.  Confidence will
increase if KBWG receives rain this afternoon/evening.  Tuesday will
begin as VFR with additional scattered storms possible, but
most will be after this valid TAF period and into the SDF planning
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292217
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 617 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the region.  Most
storms have cleared the I-65 corridor. However, more upscale growth,
most likely related to approaching short wave impulse coming up out
of AR is helping fuel convection across southern KY.  Coordination
with SPC had us expand Tornado Watch #369 southward to cover this
activity.  An isolated spinup is possible down across southern KY
for the next few hours, but feel wind damage and large hail will be
the primary severe weather threats.

Elsewhere, some additional convection has fired behind the main
convective line.  This activity extends from Cincinnati
southwestward to near Bardstown.  This will move east and affect the
Bluegrass region over the next few hours.  Rainfall amounts have
been impressive with 1-2 inch reports in the southern Bluegrass and
down toward the Lake Cumberland region.  This has resulted in some
minor flood issues and a number of flood advisories are in effect
this evening.

As convection pushes south and eastward out of the region, we will
be dropping the watch from NW to SE.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The TAF period will be characterized by generally VFR conditions,
with brief restrictions possible in thunderstorms this afternoon.
Thunderstorms have already begun to form near the Ohio River, with
coverage expected to increase this afternoon across southern and
east-central KY, mainly affecting KLEX and KBWG.  Brief restrictions
are possible in any storm with gusty winds.

Otherwise, skies will go partly cloudy overnight.  Some light fog
will be possible at KBWG where winds will be the lightest, but
confidence in fog occurrence is not very high.  Confidence will
increase if KBWG receives rain this afternoon/evening.  Tuesday will
begin as VFR with additional scattered storms possible, but
most will be after this valid TAF period and into the SDF planning
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291934
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The TAF period will be characterized by generally VFR conditions,
with brief restrictions possible in thunderstorms this afternoon.
Thunderstorms have already begun to form near the Ohio River, with
coverage expected to increase this afternoon across southern and
east-central KY, mainly affecting KLEX and KBWG.  Brief restrictions
are possible in any storm with gusty winds.

Otherwise, skies will go partly cloudy overnight.  Some light fog
will be possible at KBWG where winds will be the lightest, but
confidence in fog occurrence is not very high.  Confidence will
increase if KBWG receives rain this afternoon/evening.  Tuesday will
begin as VFR with additional scattered storms possible, but
most will be after this valid TAF period and into the SDF planning
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291934
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features northwesterly cyclonic
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with an upstream ridge across the
western CONUS.  This will set the stage for PV anomalies to dive
southeast through the flow aloft, bringing a couple of chances for
thunderstorms in the short term period.

The first round of storms has already developed this afternoon.
They have formed mainly along confluence bands and along the main
synoptic cold front which is now pushing across the Ohio River.
Dewpoints pooling in the upper 60s along the front coupled with some
diurnal heating has pushed MLCAPEs to 1000-2000 J/kg.  However,
latest WV imagery shows the main shortwave and kinematics aloft have
pushed to the east of the area.  This has led to rather meager
effective shear values of only 20-30 knots.  This marginal
deep-layer shear coupled with only weak convergence along the
boundaries will likely limit storm severity quite a bit, with only
an isolated storm or two likely to reach severe limits.  There
appears to be a very marginal tornado risk, but that will be mainly
northeast of the LMK CWA where winds remain locally backed.  Latest
observations show winds have veered substantially from SDF to FFT,
so think any tornado threat will be limited to the northern
Bluegrass where winds remain the most backed helping to enlarge
low-level hodographs.  The main threat in the strong to locally
severe storms will be damaging winds to 60mph and hail to the size
of quarters.  Another threat will be very heavy rainfall.  Bowman
Field in Louisville saw an inch of rain in about 20 minutes when a
storm passed through there, which may lead to some localized minor
flooding.

Convection should quickly dissipate as it pushes east this evening.
The night will be mainly dry, with just some passing mid/high
clouds.  There could be some fog especially where rain falls today,
but the passing clouds coupled with at least some light surface flow
should keep the fog from becoming too dense.

Tuesday will be a very similar setup to today.  The only difference
is there appears to be a better trough axis swinging through, which
may help to add a bit more vigor to updrafts.  Therefore, once again
expecting strong to marginally severe storms to fire in the
afternoon hours, capable of locally damaging winds and hail to the
size of quarters.  Expect the best coverage across the northeastern
CWA where the better forcing will coexist with more favorable
diurnal timing.  Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, with
readings expected in the low to mid 80s.  Tuesday night will dry
out, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Overall hemispheric pattern is characterized by a 6 wave pattern
aloft.  Three anchor lows, one out over the Aleutians, one over
Hudson Bay, and one out near Iceland will continue to drive the
pattern.  The overall pattern is very much an -AO/+PNA pattern which
looks to result in the ridge west, trough east pattern across NOAM
to continue.  With our region in the northwest flow, we will have to
watch for several pressure perturbations move through within the
flow.  The global models are in good synoptic agreement here and
generally are tracking the perturbations well.  The first looks to
arrive Wednesday and into Thursday, with yet another coming in
Friday/Saturday.  The models do have some placement issues with the
actual tracks, as the GFS is a little north with the Euro being a
bit more south.  In any case, rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are pretty much a given throughout the upcoming week.   Precipitable
water values will start off rather low early in the period and then
rapidly increase from mid-week onward with values well over 2
inches.  Thus, repeated rounds of thunderstorms are likely to result
in hydrologic/flooding issues as we close out the week.  Storms
could be strong at times...especially in the afternoon during peak
heating and peak instability.  Damaging winds, torrential rains and
marginal hail would be the main threats with any strong storm.

As for the upcoming holiday weekend, the pattern is not expected to
change all that much.  The models do forecast another wave in the
train to come through the region.  However, timing issues are going
to be key as to whether or not we`ll see a washout for the weekend.
For now, plan on staying above climatologically PoPs for the weekend
until timing issues can be resolved.  This should occur by the
Thursday/Friday time frame...so stay tuned.   By late in the weekend
and into early next week, there is a bit of a signal suggesting that
some height rises may develop and move in from the west.  Overall,
we`re not totally buying into this signal just yet, given the
configuration of the hemispheric pattern which would continue to
support the NW flow aloft pattern over the Ohio Valley.  Thus,
climatologically PoPs will be featured in the upcoming forecast at
this time.

As for temperatures, the stormy pattern and upper level flow will
likely keep afternoon highs below climatologically values.  Latest
blend of consensus model guidance keeps highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s for much of the week.  As a broadbrush, yeah, that may
work out fine, though I do think some pockets of higher temps may be
realized at times.  This would be especially true across southern
KY.  Overnight lows will remain mild too, with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.  Some moderation in temperatures may occur late this
weekend and into early next week with highs returning to the upper
80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2015

The TAF period will be characterized by generally VFR conditions,
with brief restrictions possible in thunderstorms this afternoon.
Thunderstorms have already begun to form near the Ohio River, with
coverage expected to increase this afternoon across southern and
east-central KY, mainly affecting KLEX and KBWG.  Brief restrictions
are possible in any storm with gusty winds.

Otherwise, skies will go partly cloudy overnight.  Some light fog
will be possible at KBWG where winds will be the lightest, but
confidence in fog occurrence is not very high.  Confidence will
increase if KBWG receives rain this afternoon/evening.  Tuesday will
begin as VFR with additional scattered storms possible, but
most will be after this valid TAF period and into the SDF planning
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........KJD






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities