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000
FXUS63 KLMK 271847
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
247 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 240 PM Fri May 27 2016

The latest analysis showed high pressure at the surface and aloft
off the Carolina coast while a closed low was located in the front
range of the Colorado Rockies. Rich Gulf moisture was streaming
northward from Texas through the mid-Mississippi Valley where
convection has been firing up most of the day. Locally, southerly
winds prevailed with readings up in the mid 80s, a mix of sun and
clouds and so far dry conditions.

Despite the juicy air mass, a lack of a surface trigger or upper
level wave has kept the local area dry so far. And we`re expecting a
mainly dry evening, minus some isolated to scattered showers or
storms lifting northward off the Cumberland plateau. Additional
showers may try to develop across western KY and TN and spread east
into the area later this evening, but confidence on that happening
isn`t high.

Otherwise, plan on another muggy night with lows in the mid 60s to
near 70.

For Saturday, models continue to show an upper level impulse
swinging through the lower Ohio Valley. This should aid in a higher
coverage of showers and storms, though it certainly won`t be a
washout day. Plenty of clouds will hold temps in check, so most
locations will top out in the lower/mid 80s, but depending on timing
a few spots west of I-65 could stay in the 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

By late this weekend into Memorial Day, the upper level pattern will
become more zonal. This lack of forcing aloft will limit
precipitation chances, but will still honor the moist air mass with
20 to 30 percent chances for diurnal pop-up showers/storms. Temps
will be solidly above normal, but it will be difficult to get enough
sunshine to crack the 90 degree mark in this pattern.

Heading into the middle to latter portions of next week, we`ll begin
to see amplification in the upper pattern such that a few impulses
may begin to affect the area. The 12z models don`t offer a lot of
confidence that far out, so will side with a model consensus which
advertises 20 to 40 percent chances Wednesday through Friday.
Temperatures will likely remain above seasonal normals in the 80s to
perhaps near 90 in a few spots across southern Kentucky.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Generally VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. For
the remainder of the afternoon winds will be out of the south to SSW
around 10-12 knots. Short term guidance does suggest spotty showers
or storms will be possible. However, if they do coverage looks to be
fairly isolated, so have kept the mention of precipitation out of
the TAFs for now. Overnight winds will relax, but should stay up
enough that fog may have a hard time forming.

For Saturday there will again be chances for some showers and
storms. Some of the latest guidance has backed off a bit on
precipitation chances, so will continue just with the mention of
VCSH.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270530
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
130 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 930 PM EDT thu May 26 2016

Convection from earlier has pushed an effective boundary into
portions of TN westward into northern AR.  As an upper-level trough
ejects into the Central Plains, this effective boundary will begin
to lift back north as a warm front.  This process is already
occurring across southern MO/northern AR, where convection has began
to lift back to the north in response.  Main challenge tonight will
be how far northeast this activity makes it.  Current thinking is
that the bulk of the activity will stay to the west where latest
guidance depicts the better isentropic ascent over the boundary.
However, do think we may see a few showers/isolated storms creep
into portions of southern IN/northern KY late tonight as this
boundary lifts back to the north.  Therefore, will continue to leave
low-end pops in the northwest part of the CWA. Updated products
already out.

Issued at 630 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Updated the forecast early this evening to account for the latest
radar trends.  Convection had enough of a cold pool to sweep
southeast through the region, thus the threat for any strong storms
has ended.  Still have some ongoing flooding in southern KY, but the
moderate rains there should subside over the next few hours.  Once
again, we could see some additional development toward sunrise as
yet another wave induces weak isentropic ascent over the region,
thus will keep small pops in through the overnight hours.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Main forecast concern is convection currently tracking across the
area this afternoon, and chances again tomorrow as we remain in a
more summer-like pattern.

Latest analysis showed upper level ridging over the southeast US
while a trough remained across the central Plains. Impulses lifting
out of Texas northeast toward the lower Great Lakes have sparked
several complexes of showers/storms on the periphery. One line of
storms originated out of Missouri/Illinois and has tracked all day
toward the I-65 corridor.

Dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 combined with brief clearing earlier
today resulted in 2000 to near 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE, especially south
of the KY parkways to the TN border. Shear environment is weak to
modest at best, but just enough to sustain some organization across
the south.

The threats likely for our area are marginal severe hail and wind
gust but more likely to be torrential rainfall and potential for
flash flooding. With the slow moving convection, anomalously high
PWATs and convection becoming more west/east oriented, training
cells may pose a flash flood risk around and nearby the Bowling
Green metro area through the evening.

Expect a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity of convection
later this evening, giving way to slight chances for the overnight.
Will have to monitor the potential for fog in the favored areas that
see plenty of rain, especially if clouds clear out. Look for
mild/muggy lows in the 60s to near 70.

For Friday, forecast guidance seems to favor a drier day, especially
along/east of I-65. The best storm activity looks to be further to
the west, so will maintain 10 to 20 percent chances. As a result,
bumped up highs a degree or two and some areas may push 90 if indeed
the area remains dry.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

On Saturday, a more pronounced upper level shortwave trough will
swing through the Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes. The 26.12z
guidance shows impulses passing closer to the area and with the
better dynamics aloft and a continuation of the juicy air mass,
precipitation chances were nudged up in the 50 to 60 percent range.
Still not expecting an all-day washout, but just greater coverage of
showers/storms across the area during the afternoon hours.

Sunday into most of next week the upper level pattern flattens out
across the area and generally there`s a lack of shortwaves moving
through the flow. This may lend toward a drier and warmer period of
weather for the region. Tried to incorporate opportunities for dry
days or nights, but again confidence is limited in this summer-like
pattern.

The other issue is the evolution and eventual track of a potential
tropical system off the Carolina coast this weekend into early next
week. Whether this acts to suppress convection on the northwest
side, or enhance moisture/convection across our eastern areas is the
wild card.

Temperatures through the long term will continue to run above normal
with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Convective debris mid and high level clouds continue across central
KY at this time with VFR conditions. With rain yesterday and absence
of low clouds, still expect at least some MVFR vsby fog at times
early this morning at BWG and LEX (possibly SDF).

Current radar shows showers over southwest KY. Models suggest some
showers will move and/or develop northeast overnight, so will
include VCSH at SDF after 09z, although conditions should remain VFR.

On Friday, any showers near and north of OH River will lift north-
east leaving dry VFR weather for the 3 TAF sites for much of the
day. Surface winds will be SSW at 10-15 kts. More mid and high level
debris clouds possible Friday night, but should have little overall
effect, as surface winds become S to SE around 5 kts.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......TWF





000
FXUS63 KLMK 262233
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
633 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Updated the forecast early this evening to account for the latest
radar trends.  Convection had enough of a cold pool to sweep
southeast through the region, thus the threat for any strong storms
has ended.  Still have some ongoing flooding in southern KY, but the
moderate rains there should subside over the next few hours.  Once
again, we could see some additional development toward sunrise as
yet another wave induces weak isentropic ascent over the region,
thus will keep small pops in through the overnight hours.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Main forecast concern is convection currently tracking across the
area this afternoon, and chances again tomorrow as we remain in a
more summer-like pattern.

Latest analysis showed upper level ridging over the southeast US
while a trough remained across the central Plains. Impulses lifting
out of Texas northeast toward the lower Great Lakes have sparked
several complexes of showers/storms on the periphery. One line of
storms originated out of Missouri/Illinois and has tracked all day
toward the I-65 corridor.

Dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 combined with brief clearing earlier
today resulted in 2000 to near 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE, especially south
of the KY parkways to the TN border. Shear environment is weak to
modest at best, but just enough to sustain some organization across
the south.

The threats likely for our area are marginal severe hail and wind
gust but more likely to be torrential rainfall and potential for
flash flooding. With the slow moving convection, anomalously high
PWATs and convection becoming more west/east oriented, training
cells may pose a flash flood risk around and nearby the Bowling
Green metro area through the evening.

Expect a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity of convection
later this evening, giving way to slight chances for the overnight.
Will have to monitor the potential for fog in the favored areas that
see plenty of rain, especially if clouds clear out. Look for
mild/muggy lows in the 60s to near 70.

For Friday, forecast guidance seems to favor a drier day, especially
along/east of I-65. The best storm activity looks to be further to
the west, so will maintain 10 to 20 percent chances. As a result,
bumped up highs a degree or two and some areas may push 90 if indeed
the area remains dry.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

On Saturday, a more pronounced upper level shortwave trough will
swing through the Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes. The 26.12z
guidance shows impulses passing closer to the area and with the
better dynamics aloft and a continuation of the juicy air mass,
precipitation chances were nudged up in the 50 to 60 percent range.
Still not expecting an all-day washout, but just greater coverage of
showers/storms across the area during the afternoon hours.

Sunday into most of next week the upper level pattern flattens out
across the area and generally there`s a lack of shortwaves moving
through the flow. This may lend toward a drier and warmer period of
weather for the region. Tried to incorporate opportunities for dry
days or nights, but again confidence is limited in this summer-like
pattern.

The other issue is the evolution and eventual track of a potential
tropical system off the Carolina coast this weekend into early next
week. Whether this acts to suppress convection on the northwest
side, or enhance moisture/convection across our eastern areas is the
wild card.

Temperatures through the long term will continue to run above normal
with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Well...line of storms from HNB to along the Western KY Parkway
pushing eastward and is the main story of first 12 hours of the
forecast. This moving eastward at 30 to 35 mph.  Mesoscale processes
during the afternoon sunshine will allow the storms to maintain
themselves into the SDF area by 1830z.

Scattered storms have developed along old outflow boundaries across
the BWG area, and will have VCTS this afternoon with better
instability in the warm sector.

The HRR takes the precip eastward into the Bluegrass Region around
22z, if in fact it maintains itself. Will be nowcasting LEX TAF.
Surface winds today will be south to southwest around 10 kts with
gusts 10-20 except in storms where gust up to 35 mph are possible.
HNB just had a gust to 36 mph.

Any storms should weaken later this evening with VFR conditions.
However, there could be some light fog developing at BWG and
LEX around daybreak.

Forecast is much drier for Friday with only isolated convection
around the CWA.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......JDG





000
FXUS63 KLMK 261855
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
255 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Main forecast concern is convection currently tracking across the
area this afternoon, and chances again tomorrow as we remain in a
more summer-like pattern.

Latest analysis showed upper level ridging over the southeast US
while a trough remained across the central Plains. Impulses lifting
out of Texas northeast toward the lower Great Lakes have sparked
several complexes of showers/storms on the periphery. One line of
storms originated out of Missouri/Illinois and has tracked all day
toward the I-65 corridor.

Dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 combined with brief clearing earlier
today resulted in 2000 to near 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE, especially south
of the KY parkways to the TN border. Shear environment is weak to
modest at best, but just enough to sustain some organization across
the south.

The threats likely for our area are marginal severe hail and wind
gust but more likely to be torrential rainfall and potential for
flash flooding. With the slow moving convection, anomalously high
PWATs and convection becoming more west/east oriented, training
cells may pose a flash flood risk around and nearby the Bowling
Green metro area through the evening.

Expect a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity of convection
later this evening, giving way to slight chances for the overnight.
Will have to monitor the potential for fog in the favored areas that
see plenty of rain, especially if clouds clear out. Look for
mild/muggy lows in the 60s to near 70.

For Friday, forecast guidance seems to favor a drier day, especially
along/east of I-65. The best storm activity looks to be further to
the west, so will maintain 10 to 20 percent chances. As a result,
bumped up highs a degree or two and some areas may push 90 if indeed
the area remains dry.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

On Saturday, a more pronounced upper level shortwave trough will
swing through the Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes. The 26.12z
guidance shows impulses passing closer to the area and with the
better dynamics aloft and a continuation of the juicy air mass,
precipitation chances were nudged up in the 50 to 60 percent range.
Still not expecting an all-day washout, but just greater coverage of
showers/storms across the area during the afternoon hours.

Sunday into most of next week the upper level pattern flattens out
across the area and generally there`s a lack of shortwaves moving
through the flow. This may lend toward a drier and warmer period of
weather for the region. Tried to incorporate opportunities for dry
days or nights, but again confidence is limited in this summer-like
pattern.

The other issue is the evolution and eventual track of a potential
tropical system off the Carolina coast this weekend into early next
week. Whether this acts to suppress convection on the northwest
side, or enhance moisture/convection across our eastern areas is the
wild card.

Temperatures through the long term will continue to run above normal
with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Well...line of storms from HNB to along the Western KY Parkway
pushing eastward and is the main story of first 12 hours of the
forecast. This moving eastward at 30 to 35 mph.  Mesoscale processes
during the afternoon sunshine will allow the storms to maintain
themselves into the SDF area by 1830z.

Scattered storms have developed along old outflow boundaries across
the BWG area, and will have VCTS this afternoon with better
instability in the warm sector.

The HRR takes the precip eastward into the Bluegrass Region around
22z, if in fact it maintains itself. Will be nowcasting LEX TAF.
Surface winds today will be south to southwest around 10 kts with
gusts 10-20 except in storms where gust up to 35 mph are possible.
HNB just had a gust to 36 mph.

Any storms should weaken later this evening with VFR conditions.
However, there could be some light fog developing at BWG and
LEX around daybreak.

Forecast is much drier for Friday with only isolated convection
around the CWA.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........JDG





000
FXUS63 KLMK 261659
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1259 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 939 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Lingering showers and isolated storms across the Bluegrass have
slowly dissipated as LLJ begins to weaken and push to the east. A
nice clear slot resides behind it across central Kentucky and
southern Indiana, with southerly flow and dewpoints in the mid 60s.
Further to the west across central Illinois, a line of storms is
steadily moving east.

Extrapolating this line will put it into southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky by early afternoon. Our air mass should be able to
destabilize with dewpoints in the mid 60s and temps in the 80s. The
past few runs of the HRRR have finally latched onto this line and
brings it across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Some of the
other hi-res models have this ideas as well. As a result, increased
POPs quite a bit for parts of the area through the late afternoon.
Will likely need to fine tune or increase POPs further east across
the Bluegrass if this complex holds together across the entire area.

The very weak shear environment will limit severe storms, but
lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds will be a threat.

Issued at 555 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

MCV loitering about south-central Kentucky has triggered showers and
a few isolated T-storms extending north into the Bluegrass region in
the last 2 hrs or so. The bulk of this precip is sliding into
eastern Kentucky already, but we`re continuing to see a smattering
of showers re-develop behind it. Also saw a few lighter showers over
southwest Indiana, but those are not holding together well at all.

Grids have been tweaked to better capture hourly trends, and hi-res
products will be updated shortly. No update to the zones as the
overall trend for the next 12 hrs is still pretty much unchanged.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Summertime air mass is now established over the Ohio Valley with
dewpoints into the 60s and precipitable water pushing 1.5 inches.
Upper trof has settled in over the High Plains, with an amplifying
ridge along the East Coast.

This pattern figures to remain fairly stagnant for the next couple
of days, resulting in a continuation of the warm and fairly muggy
conditions that took hold on Wednesday. Even with abundant low-level
moisture, the greatest instability and the favored track for most of
the synoptic-scale upper disturbances will be to our north and west.
Convective potential will be driven largely by whatever
destabilization can occur diurnally, and low-level boundaries that
manage to push in with decaying MCSs from the Plains. Will carry a
20-30 POP with a slight diurnal signal through tonight.

Confidence in model guidance is fairly low, but signs do point to a
dry day on Friday as deep southerly flow may better focus storms
over the Mississippi Valley, leaving us in a relative minimum for
moisture and instability. Will go with a dry forecast for now, but
proceed cautiously. With the dry forecast, would expect Friday to be
the warmer day in the short-term, with upper 80s quite likely
anywhere that sees enough insolation.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Unsettled pattern will continue through the Memorial Day weekend,
with warm and muggy conditions and isolated to scattered showers/
storms almost on a daily basis.

Will start out Saturday with the most amplified pattern, but the
upper trof over the Plains tries to lift out, with a fair bit of
bagginess in the flow translating NNE through the Ohio Valley. This
will likely be the most unsettled day of the period, and we`ll carry
the highest POPs but still limit to a 50 percent chance given low
confidence in the timing of any impulses.

As we head into Memorial Day and early next week, the pattern
flattens out a bit. The wild card is the warm core system that is
progged to develop off the Carolina coast. If it gets close and/or
strong enough, subsidence could keep a lid on convection here,
allowing us a dry day but pushing temps close to 90. Otherwise will
see a continuation of the summer pattern, resulting in isolated/
scattered POPs, with the best chances in the afternoon, and temps
running several degrees above normal, especially by night.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Well...line of storms from HNB to along the Western KY Parkway
pushing eastward and is the main story of first 12 hours of the
forecast. This moving eastward at 30 to 35 mph.  Mesoscale processes
during the afternoon sunshine will allow the storms to maintain
themselves into the SDF area by 1830z.

Scattered storms have developed along old outflow boundaries across
the BWG area, and will have VCTS this afternoon with better
instability in the warm sector.

The HRR takes the precip eastward into the Bluegrass Region around
22z, if in fact it maintains itself. Will be nowcasting LEX TAF.
Surface winds today will be south to southwest around 10 kts with
gusts 10-20 except in storms where gust up to 35 mph are possible.
HNB just had a gust to 36 mph.

Any storms should weaken later this evening with VFR conditions.
However, there could be some light fog developing at BWG and
LEX around daybreak.

Forecast is much drier for Friday with only very isolated
convection around the CWA.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......JDG





000
FXUS63 KLMK 261058
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
658 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 555 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

MCV loitering about south-central Kentucky has triggered showers and
a few isolated T-storms extending north into the Bluegrass region in
the last 2 hrs or so. The bulk of this precip is sliding into
eastern Kentucky already, but we`re continuing to see a smattering
of showers re-develop behind it. Also saw a few lighter showers over
southwest Indiana, but those are not holding together well at all.

Grids have been tweaked to better capture hourly trends, and hi-res
products will be updated shortly. No update to the zones as the
overall trend for the next 12 hrs is still pretty much unchanged.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Summertime air mass is now established over the Ohio Valley with
dewpoints into the 60s and precipitable water pushing 1.5 inches.
Upper trof has settled in over the High Plains, with an amplifying
ridge along the East Coast.

This pattern figures to remain fairly stagnant for the next couple
of days, resulting in a continuation of the warm and fairly muggy
conditions that took hold on Wednesday. Even with abundant low-level
moisture, the greatest instability and the favored track for most of
the synoptic-scale upper disturbances will be to our north and west.
Convective potential will be driven largely by whatever
destabilization can occur diurnally, and low-level boundaries that
manage to push in with decaying MCSs from the Plains. Will carry a
20-30 POP with a slight diurnal signal through tonight.

Confidence in model guidance is fairly low, but signs do point to a
dry day on Friday as deep southerly flow may better focus storms
over the Mississippi Valley, leaving us in a relative minimum for
moisture and instability. Will go with a dry forecast for now, but
proceed cautiously. With the dry forecast, would expect Friday to be
the warmer day in the short-term, with upper 80s quite likely
anywhere that sees enough insolation.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Unsettled pattern will continue through the Memorial Day weekend,
with warm and muggy conditions and isolated to scattered showers/
storms almost on a daily basis.

Will start out Saturday with the most amplified pattern, but the
upper trof over the Plains tries to lift out, with a fair bit of
bagginess in the flow translating NNE through the Ohio Valley. This
will likely be the most unsettled day of the period, and we`ll carry
the highest POPs but still limit to a 50 percent chance given low
confidence in the timing of any impulses.

As we head into Memorial Day and early next week, the pattern
flattens out a bit. The wild card is the warm core system that is
progged to develop off the Carolina coast. If it gets close and/or
strong enough, subsidence could keep a lid on convection here,
allowing us a dry day but pushing temps close to 90. Otherwise will
see a continuation of the summer pattern, resulting in isolated/
scattered POPs, with the best chances in the afternoon, and temps
running several degrees above normal, especially by night.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Remnant weak mid-level vortex over central KY has resulted in
development of numerous nocturnal showers and isolated thunderstorms
over our eastern forecast area. Indeed, these have affected LEX with
varying vsbys depending on rainfall intensity. By the start of the
forecast period (12z), the back edge of the showers should be near
LEX, with the showers moving east thereafter. Meanwhile, isolated
showers have developed behind the shortwave over parts of south-
central IN, and latest model trends suggest that isolated showers
could affect SDF or nearby locations this morning, so will include
VCSH. However, conditions should remain VFR.

For this afternoon, this system will be east of the area. Precip
should be at a lull with VFR conditions continuing. However,
isolated thunderstorms could develop in the mid or late afternoon,
with SDF most susceptible. Will also have to watch the later
remnants of the current MCS over MO and whether outflow boundaries
from this convection has any implications on convective development
across our northern area, including SDF. For BWG and LEX, any storms
later today should be isolated so will not include VCTS at this
time, although this will be monitored. Surface winds today will be
south to southwest around 10 kts with gusts 10-20.

Any storms should weaken later this evening with VFR conditions.
However, there light fog could develop at LEX (possibly BWG) near
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......TWF





000
FXUS63 KLMK 260533
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
133 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 850 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

The grids have been updated this evening to reflect the latest
trends.  A decaying complex of showers and a few storms continue to
push through southern KY.  This will continue to wane over the next
few hours, with most areas becoming dry around 06Z.  Guidance then
diverges in their solutions for the overnight period.  Have backed
off pops a bit, but still left 20-30 pops in overnight into Thursday
morning.  It appears another wave will move through the WSW flow
aloft, which could induce some weak isentropic ascent atop some of
the boundaries left over by today`s convection.  Don`t expect
coverage to be great, and really don`t expect too many thunderstorms
(will leave just slight chances for thunder).  Otherwise, depending
on cloud cover, we could see some fog develop across southern KY
where the heaviest rains fell today.  Will include patchy fog in the
grids, but again this will be dependent on clouds clearing out
through the overnight hours.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Southwesterly flow over the past 12 to 24 hours has brought an
increase in Gulf moisture to central Kentucky and southern Indiana
characterized by dewpoints now in the low to mid 60s. A few
complexes of showers and storms mainly across southern Illinois and
southwest Kentucky have been slowly drifting east toward central
Kentucky early this afternoon but have been limited in intensity so
far by a less favorable CAPE environment and weak to nearly absent 0-
6 km shear.

For the remainder of this afternoon and the evening, the loosely
organized cluster of storms will drift further east toward the I-65
corridor. This may bring a period of showers and an occasional
rumble of thunder. However, as diurnal heating wanes, there should
be a decrease in coverage and intensity, giving way to mainly
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. The highest precipitation
chances through midnight were confined to along and west of I-65.

Otherwise, plan a mild night with lows in the 60s. The baggy upper
level flow combined with the more moist environment support a
slight chance of a shower during the overnight.

For Thursday, another limited confidence forecast with a similar
setup as today. Models diverge both in time and place on passing
upper level impulses, so for the most part have continued 20 to 40
percent chances for the day, highest in the afternoon during peak
heating.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances
as we head into the Memorial Day weekend and early next week.

By Friday, the upper level pattern will amplify more with the ridge
off the southeast US coast building while a negatively titled trough
swings through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface,
the lower Ohio Valley will likely be in between surface high to the
east and waves of low pressure to the north/northwest.

As weak impulses lift northeastward in the broad southwesterly flow
combined with diurnal heating will support the slight chances of
showers/storms each day though not every day or night will be a
washout. There remains some considerable uncertainty in the timing
of specific waves, so will continue with a broadbrush of chances.
Expect above normal temperatures in the low/mid 80s. Some upper 80s
are possible if cloud and shower coverage is less during the day.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Remnant mid and high clouds from Indiana through central Kentucky to
middle Tennessee will move east overnight. Most showers with this
moisture dissipated last evening, although there are several renewed
showers mainly in Tennessee. While additional scattered showers and
possible overnight, they should stay south of the 3 TAF sites.

Main concern overnight is fog development at BWG. Already, their
surface temp/dewpoint spread is low, and the site received over an
inch of rain Wednesday. Once mid clouds clear later this morning,
local vsbys should become MVFR and could go briefly IFR at times
before dawn. Caveat to this is model depiction of cloud development
around 5-6 kft later this morning which could help limit fog.

During the day Thursday, conditions will be VFR. At this time, it
appears any convective development should remain isolated/widely
scattered, with a slightly better chance at SDF where VCTS is
included in TAF during mid/late afternoon. However, any residual low-
level boundaries and any effect of current upstream convection as it
moves eastward could affect convective evolution over lower OH
Valley later today.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......TWF





000
FXUS63 KLMK 260052
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
852 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 850 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

The grids have been updated this evening to reflect the latest
trends.  A decaying complex of showers and a few storms continue to
push through southern KY.  This will continue to wane over the next
few hours, with most areas becoming dry around 06Z.  Guidance then
diverges in their solutions for the overnight period.  Have backed
off pops a bit, but still left 20-30 pops in overnight into Thursday
morning.  It appears another wave will move through the WSW flow
aloft, which could induce some weak isentropic ascent atop some of
the boundaries left over by today`s convection.  Don`t expect
coverage to be great, and really don`t expect too many thunderstorms
(will leave just slight chances for thunder).  Otherwise, depending
on cloud cover, we could see some fog develop across southern KY
where the heaviest rains fell today.  Will include patchy fog in the
grids, but again this will be dependent on clouds clearing out
through the overnight hours.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Southwesterly flow over the past 12 to 24 hours has brought an
increase in Gulf moisture to central Kentucky and southern Indiana
characterized by dewpoints now in the low to mid 60s. A few
complexes of showers and storms mainly across southern Illinois and
southwest Kentucky have been slowly drifting east toward central
Kentucky early this afternoon but have been limited in intensity so
far by a less favorable CAPE environment and weak to nearly absent 0-
6 km shear.

For the remainder of this afternoon and the evening, the loosely
organized cluster of storms will drift further east toward the I-65
corridor. This may bring a period of showers and an occasional
rumble of thunder. However, as diurnal heating wanes, there should
be a decrease in coverage and intensity, giving way to mainly
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. The highest precipitation
chances through midnight were confined to along and west of I-65.

Otherwise, plan a mild night with lows in the 60s. The baggy upper
level flow combined with the more moist environment support a
slight chance of a shower during the overnight.

For Thursday, another limited confidence forecast with a similar
setup as today. Models diverge both in time and place on passing
upper level impulses, so for the most part have continued 20 to 40
percent chances for the day, highest in the afternoon during peak
heating.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances
as we head into the Memorial Day weekend and early next week.

By Friday, the upper level pattern will amplify more with the ridge
off the southeast US coast building while a negatively titled trough
swings through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface,
the lower Ohio Valley will likely be in between surface high to the
east and waves of low pressure to the north/northwest.

As weak impulses lift northeastward in the broad southwesterly flow
combined with diurnal heating will support the slight chances of
showers/storms each day though not every day or night will be a
washout. There remains some considerable uncertainty in the timing
of specific waves, so will continue with a broadbrush of chances.
Expect above normal temperatures in the low/mid 80s. Some upper 80s
are possible if cloud and shower coverage is less during the day.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 707 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Short term model solutions do not have a real good handle on the
convective trends in the area.  Based on current conditions, KBWG
will likely see IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbs at the start of the period as a
secondary convective complex moves through.   A few scattered
showers may pass close to KSDF this evening, but conditions at KSDF
and KLEX looks to be largely VFR this evening and into the overnight.

After convective complex moves east of the area, clearing upstream
will move in from the west.  Given the rainfall at KBWG today and
this evening, fog is probably going to develop and may be locally
dense in the 26/08-13Z time frame.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 251045
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
645 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Mild conditions have held on through the night, with light south
breezes and slowly increasing dewpoints. Aside from a few radar
returns that suggest isolated light rain showers over south central
Kentucky, we are almost entirely precip-free as new convection
advertised by most of the models has failed to materialize over the
lower Ohio and Wabash Valleys, and an earlier MCS has almost
completely fizzled over western Tennessee.

Short-term forecast confidence is sorely limited due to this poor
model initialization. Expect an increasingly muggy low-level air
mass to evolve today, with isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances. Ongoing MCSs over Kansas and Oklahoma will
likely gust out before reaching the Mississippi, but these will bear
watch for any MCV development that could serve as a trigger here
later tonight. Again will limit POPs to slight or low chance, with
the best chances over southern Indiana as the upper flow pattern
would seem to favor disturbances tracking ENE across there.

Expect more of the same on Thursday as it is becoming increasingly
difficult to pin down the upper impulses that may trigger convection
over the Ohio Valley. Precip chances will remain limited to chance,
and temps will continue to run several degrees above normal by day,
and trend warmer each night.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Upper ridging over the southeast CONUS will be the main player
through the weekend into early next week, resulting in warm and
muggy conditions. Upper trofiness will hold over the Plains, and
impulses will round this trof and head into the Great Lakes, with
scattered showers and storms possible if any of these disturbances
track close enough to the Ohio Valley.

For now will largely broadbrush POPs in the 20-30% range, but at
this point would not brand any day a washout. As disturbances become
more clear, will likely see some POPs bumped up while others could
be removed. Temps will be modulated primarily by clouds and any
convection that pops in the afternoons, with the main theme being
above normal. The real unknown, especially late in the weekend, will
hinge on the fate of a subtropical system that most of the models
show off the Carolina coast. If this system is strong and/or close
enough, we could get into the subsidence region on its western
flank. That would cut into precip chances and give temps a better
chance of cracking 90 on Monday and/or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Wed May 25 2016

The chance for showers and/or storms remains the challenge for this
TAF period. Model guidance continues to output too much
precipitation, so will keep the forecast on the drier side. The best
chance for some light showers will be at BWG this morning. SDF and
LEX could see a brief shower or two as well this morning into the
early afternoon. However, confidence is less at these sites, so will
carry only VCSH. There could be another round of showers move
through tonight, but given the low confidence, will keep the
forecast dry for now.

VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected through this TAF period.
Winds will shift from southeasterly to southerly today and will pick
up though mid day.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 250726
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
326 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Mild conditions have held on through the night, with light south
breezes and slowly increasing dewpoints. Aside from a few radar
returns that suggest isolated light rain showers over south central
Kentucky, we are almost entirely precip-free as new convection
advertised by most of the models has failed to materialize over the
lower Ohio and Wabash Valleys, and an earlier MCS has almost
completely fizzled over western Tennessee.

Short-term forecast confidence is sorely limited due to this poor
model initialization. Expect an increasingly muggy low-level air
mass to evolve today, with isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances. Ongoing MCSs over Kansas and Oklahoma will
likely gust out before reaching the Mississippi, but these will bear
watch for any MCV development that could serve as a trigger here
later tonight. Again will limit POPs to slight or low chance, with
the best chances over southern Indiana as the upper flow pattern
would seem to favor disturbances tracking ENE across there.

Expect more of the same on Thursday as it is becoming increasingly
difficult to pin down the upper impulses that may trigger convection
over the Ohio Valley. Precip chances will remain limited to chance,
and temps will continue to run several degrees above normal by day,
and trend warmer each night.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Upper ridging over the southeast CONUS will be the main player
through the weekend into early next week, resulting in warm and
muggy conditions. Upper trofiness will hold over the Plains, and
impulses will round this trof and head into the Great Lakes, with
scattered showers and storms possible if any of these disturbances
track close enough to the Ohio Valley.

For now will largely broadbrush POPs in the 20-30% range, but at
this point would not brand any day a washout. As disturbances become
more clear, will likely see some POPs bumped up while others could
be removed. Temps will be modulated primarily by clouds and any
convection that pops in the afternoons, with the main theme being
above normal. The real unknown, especially late in the weekend, will
hinge on the fate of a subtropical system that most of the models
show off the Carolina coast. If this system is strong and/or close
enough, we could get into the subsidence region on its western
flank. That would cut into precip chances and give temps a better
chance of cracking 90 on Monday and/or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1258 AM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Mainly VFR conditions will be carried in the TAFs for this forecast
period. The challenge, however, is the potential for showers and
storms. The storms over west central TN have been weakening.
However, most short term guidance shows showers developing north of
this area early this morning and pushing east across central
Kentucky. The models do seem to be overdoing the ongoing
precipitation somewhat, however, so confidence on coverage is low.
Therefore, will include VCSH this morning into the afternoon hours
based on a consensus of the guidance. Thunderstorms are not out of
the question today, but given the uncertainty in coverage, will hold
off on mentioning TS in the TAFs at this time.

Ceiling are expected to remain mainly VFR unless a thunderstorms
moves over the terminals. Winds will be out of the south to
southeast and could be a bit gusty this afternoon at SDF and BWG.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 250459
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1259 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Have updated the grids this evening to account for the latest
observational/guidance trends.  MCS over eastern AR has quickly
shown signs of decay over the past hour, with the convection and
stratiform precip shield shrinking.  Guidance has not handled this
convection well, so there is some uncertainty in the forecast for
tonight.  Latest thinking is that with the main effective boundary
staying well off to the southwest, we will struggle to see much in
the way of development through the first part of the overnight
hours.  As a weak wave lifts through the area early Wednesday
morning, just enough isentropic ascent will develop to perhaps
squeeze out a few convective showers.  While an isolated storm can`t
be ruled out, don`t think coverage will be enough to even warrant
mention in the forecast overnight so have removed thunder wording
through 12Z. Otherwise, forecast looks on track.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

As of mid afternoon, a surface analysis showed high pressure
centered across the mid-Atlantic coast, while latest visible
satellite had mostly clear skies minus a few cumulus west of I-65.
The upper levels are characterized by an anomalous cut off low off
the New England coast while weak ridging to southwesterly flow was
across the central Plains. Temperatures locally were in the upper
70s to low 80s with a rather dry air mass in place. Dewpoints have
mixed out into the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s.

For this evening and tonight, look for a gradual increase in
moisture as the upper disturbance to our west begins to slowly drift
toward the area. Overall it will be a dry evening as the instability
axis remains to our west, however late this evening and overnight,
we`ll see increasing 850 mb moisture transport. This may fuel some
elevated showers or storms, mainly north of the KY parkways into
southern Indiana. However, coverage isn`t expected to be high so
POPs were confined to the 20 to 30 percent range. Plan on lows in
the low 60s.

For Wednesday, look for a slightly more humid/muggy day as dewpoints
creep up into the low 60s, especially west of I-65. This increased
moisture, combined with a passing upper level shortwave, will help
spark a bit more coverage of showers/storms in the afternoon. The
highest chances, still capped at about 30 percent, will be across
southern Indiana and portions of west-central Kentucky. Plan on
highs in the low/mid 80s. A muggy evening/night will then be on tap
with lows staying up in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

The long term period will be characterized by an upper level ridge
anchored off the southeast US while passing shortwave troughs will
work to dig through the central Plains into the lower Great Lakes.
Our area will be on the periphery of this ridge, at least Thursday
into the weekend.

This upper level ridging will work to limit precipitation chances to
mainly diurnal showers/storms with more organized convection likely
staying to our west/northwest. We`ll have to watch to see if the
ridge breaks down any further and allow these systems to pass more
closely, but for the most part, look for a more summer-like pattern
with above normal temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and mild/muggy
overnights in the mid/upper 60s. The model consensus precipitation
chances were capped in the 20-30 percent range for most periods in
the forecast, and it`s possible as the forecast becomes clearer,
POPs during a few of these periods may be able to be completely
removed.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1258 AM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Mainly VFR conditions will be carried in the TAFs for this forecast
period. The challenge, however, is the potential for showers and
storms. The storms over west central TN have been weakening.
However, most short term guidance shows showers developing north of
this area early this morning and pushing east across central
Kentucky. The models do seem to be overdoing the ongoing
precipitation somewhat, however, so confidence on coverage is low.
Therefore, will include VCSH this morning into the afternoon hours
based on a consensus of the guidance. Thunderstorms are not out of
the question today, but given the uncertainty in coverage, will hold
off on mentioning TS in the TAFs at this time.

Ceiling are expected to remain mainly VFR unless a thunderstorms
moves over the terminals. Winds will be out of the south to
southeast and could be a bit gusty this afternoon at SDF and BWG.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 242307
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
707 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

As of mid afternoon, a surface analysis showed high pressure
centered across the mid-Atlantic coast, while latest visible
satellite had mostly clear skies minus a few cumulus west of I-65.
The upper levels are characterized by an anomalous cut off low off
the New England coast while weak ridging to southwesterly flow was
across the central Plains. Temperatures locally were in the upper
70s to low 80s with a rather dry air mass in place. Dewpoints have
mixed out into the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s.

For this evening and tonight, look for a gradual increase in
moisture as the upper disturbance to our west begins to slowly drift
toward the area. Overall it will be a dry evening as the instability
axis remains to our west, however late this evening and overnight,
we`ll see increasing 850 mb moisture transport. This may fuel some
elevated showers or storms, mainly north of the KY parkways into
southern Indiana. However, coverage isn`t expected to be high so
POPs were confined to the 20 to 30 percent range. Plan on lows in
the low 60s.

For Wednesday, look for a slightly more humid/muggy day as dewpoints
creep up into the low 60s, especially west of I-65. This increased
moisture, combined with a passing upper level shortwave, will help
spark a bit more coverage of showers/storms in the afternoon. The
highest chances, still capped at about 30 percent, will be across
southern Indiana and portions of west-central Kentucky. Plan on
highs in the low/mid 80s. A muggy evening/night will then be on tap
with lows staying up in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

The long term period will be characterized by an upper level ridge
anchored off the southeast US while passing shortwave troughs will
work to dig through the central Plains into the lower Great Lakes.
Our area will be on the periphery of this ridge, at least Thursday
into the weekend.

This upper level ridging will work to limit precipitation chances to
mainly diurnal showers/storms with more organized convection likely
staying to our west/northwest. We`ll have to watch to see if the
ridge breaks down any further and allow these systems to pass more
closely, but for the most part, look for a more summer-like pattern
with above normal temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and mild/muggy
overnights in the mid/upper 60s. The model consensus precipitation
chances were capped in the 20-30 percent range for most periods in
the forecast, and it`s possible as the forecast becomes clearer,
POPs during a few of these periods may be able to be completely
removed.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period.
A loosely-organized MCS continues to push southeast through southern
MO/northern AR this evening.  Guidance is not handling this system
well at all, thus there is some uncertainty in the forecast for
tonight.  Will include VCSH in BWG where some of the light
stratiform rain may fall, but will continue to go dry at KSDF/KLEX.
May see a few showers or even an isolated storm developing at
SDF/LEX after 06Z tonight, but uncertainty is too high at this time
given the ongoing convection to the southwest to include a mention.

A few isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible at
all sites on Wednesday, with WSW winds around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........KJD





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