Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KLMK 182255
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Storm system across the southeast U.S. will help to keep our weather
quiet this period. We will see a steady north to northeasterly wind
at the surface, in the flow around this system. There is a cloud
gradient from northwest to southeast today, with cirrus streaming
north from this low, but these clouds should shift east tonight.
Despite the sunshine tomorrow, lower thicknesses, kept low by that
closed low to our southeast, will mean temperatures stay within 5
degrees of normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Sunday - Friday...

An amplified upper level ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, upstream of a closed upper low off the SE CONUS. This
will result in a warm and dry day with temperatures nearly 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. Most highs should stay
in the upper 70s although a few spots may touch 80 degrees. Sunday
night will be continued dry with mild overnight lows in the low and
mid 50s. Expect to see a light southerly wind to develop toward
dawn, along with increasing upper level sky cover.

By Monday, the upper level ridge axis will move off to the east.
Meanwhile, a shortwave will dive across the northern Plains heading
into the Great Lakes. An associated surface low will strengthen
ahead of this feature with some weak isentropic ascent possible over
the Ohio Valley. Forecast models continue to depict QPF over our
area on Monday, however agree with previous forecast reasoning in
keeping low chances across our western CWA further removed from the
upper level ridge. The main chances for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will arrive Monday night into early Tuesday as the
aforementioned surface low slides across the Great Lakes, dragging a
cold front through our region as it does so. There continues to be
some question as to how much moisture this system will have to work
with as return flow from the Gulf looks to be limited by the upper
level ridge in place the day before.

Highs Monday will be a bit cooler in the mid 70s under increased sky
cover. Monday night will be even milder than Sunday night under a
steady southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front. Tuesday
will see highs in the lower 70s despite being post frontal as we`ll
see some peaks at the sun in the afternoon and cooler air lags
behind a bit.

We`ll see a dry period of weather Tuesday night through Thursday as
progressive upper level ridging builds back over the region, and
high pressure at the surface also holds. Temperatures Wednesday will
be the coolest of the period and should top out right around 70
degrees. Thursday will be back in the mid 70s. Overnight lows during
mid week will generally be near the normal mark.

Confidence decreases by the end of next week as the progressive
upper level ridge pushes off to the east and the next trough moves
in. There is general agreement in the next wave developing, however
timing is certainly in question. Will go with low chances for
showers and a t-storm during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A long north-south ridge of high pressure crossing the region will
keep vsbys VFR and cirrus as the main cloud type through this
forecast period. After light and variable winds tonight they will
concentrate out of the ENE around ten knots on Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 182255
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Storm system across the southeast U.S. will help to keep our weather
quiet this period. We will see a steady north to northeasterly wind
at the surface, in the flow around this system. There is a cloud
gradient from northwest to southeast today, with cirrus streaming
north from this low, but these clouds should shift east tonight.
Despite the sunshine tomorrow, lower thicknesses, kept low by that
closed low to our southeast, will mean temperatures stay within 5
degrees of normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Sunday - Friday...

An amplified upper level ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, upstream of a closed upper low off the SE CONUS. This
will result in a warm and dry day with temperatures nearly 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. Most highs should stay
in the upper 70s although a few spots may touch 80 degrees. Sunday
night will be continued dry with mild overnight lows in the low and
mid 50s. Expect to see a light southerly wind to develop toward
dawn, along with increasing upper level sky cover.

By Monday, the upper level ridge axis will move off to the east.
Meanwhile, a shortwave will dive across the northern Plains heading
into the Great Lakes. An associated surface low will strengthen
ahead of this feature with some weak isentropic ascent possible over
the Ohio Valley. Forecast models continue to depict QPF over our
area on Monday, however agree with previous forecast reasoning in
keeping low chances across our western CWA further removed from the
upper level ridge. The main chances for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will arrive Monday night into early Tuesday as the
aforementioned surface low slides across the Great Lakes, dragging a
cold front through our region as it does so. There continues to be
some question as to how much moisture this system will have to work
with as return flow from the Gulf looks to be limited by the upper
level ridge in place the day before.

Highs Monday will be a bit cooler in the mid 70s under increased sky
cover. Monday night will be even milder than Sunday night under a
steady southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front. Tuesday
will see highs in the lower 70s despite being post frontal as we`ll
see some peaks at the sun in the afternoon and cooler air lags
behind a bit.

We`ll see a dry period of weather Tuesday night through Thursday as
progressive upper level ridging builds back over the region, and
high pressure at the surface also holds. Temperatures Wednesday will
be the coolest of the period and should top out right around 70
degrees. Thursday will be back in the mid 70s. Overnight lows during
mid week will generally be near the normal mark.

Confidence decreases by the end of next week as the progressive
upper level ridge pushes off to the east and the next trough moves
in. There is general agreement in the next wave developing, however
timing is certainly in question. Will go with low chances for
showers and a t-storm during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A long north-south ridge of high pressure crossing the region will
keep vsbys VFR and cirrus as the main cloud type through this
forecast period. After light and variable winds tonight they will
concentrate out of the ENE around ten knots on Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181913
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Storm system across the southeast U.S. will help to keep our weather
quiet this period. We will see a steady north to northeasterly wind
at the surface, in the flow around this system. There is a cloud
gradient from northwest to southeast today, with cirrus streaming
north from this low, but these clouds should shift east tonight.
Despite the sunshine tomorrow, lower thicknesses, kept low by that
closed low to our southeast, will mean temperatures stay within 5
degrees of normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Sunday - Friday...

An amplified upper level ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, upstream of a closed upper low off the SE CONUS. This
will result in a warm and dry day with temperatures nearly 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. Most highs should stay
in the upper 70s although a few spots may touch 80 degrees. Sunday
night will be continued dry with mild overnight lows in the low and
mid 50s. Expect to see a light southerly wind to develop toward
dawn, along with increasing upper level sky cover.

By Monday, the upper level ridge axis will move off to the east.
Meanwhile, a shortwave will dive across the northern Plains heading
into the Great Lakes. An associated surface low will strengthen
ahead of this feature with some weak isentropic ascent possible over
the Ohio Valley. Forecast models continue to depict QPF over our
area on Monday, however agree with previous forecast reasoning in
keeping low chances across our western CWA further removed from the
upper level ridge. The main chances for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will arrive Monday night into early Tuesday as the
aforementioned surface low slides across the Great Lakes, dragging a
cold front through our region as it does so. There continues to be
some question as to how much moisture this system will have to work
with as return flow from the Gulf looks to be limited by the upper
level ridge in place the day before.

Highs Monday will be a bit cooler in the mid 70s under increased sky
cover. Monday night will be even milder than Sunday night under a
steady southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front. Tuesday
will see highs in the lower 70s despite being post frontal as we`ll
see some peaks at the sun in the afternoon and cooler air lags
behind a bit.

We`ll see a dry period of weather Tuesday night through Thursday as
progressive upper level ridging builds back over the region, and
high pressure at the surface also holds. Temperatures Wednesday will
be the coolest of the period and should top out right around 70
degrees. Thursday will be back in the mid 70s. Overnight lows during
mid week will generally be near the normal mark.

Confidence decreases by the end of next week as the progressive
upper level ridge pushes off to the east and the next trough moves
in. There is general agreement in the next wave developing, however
timing is certainly in question. Will go with low chances for
showers and a t-storm during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Seeing some clouds develop on the edge of the cirrus shield, now
stretching frmo KBWG to KSDF. These clouds are fairly high-based
though at 4500 feet, so VFR conditions look to prevail. AMDAR
soundings still show a pretty strong cap at 7500 feet, so it should
be hard to get any precip today, even with a weak front in the
region. Winds will become more northeasterly Saturday as a storm
system passes through the southeast U.S.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 181913
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Storm system across the southeast U.S. will help to keep our weather
quiet this period. We will see a steady north to northeasterly wind
at the surface, in the flow around this system. There is a cloud
gradient from northwest to southeast today, with cirrus streaming
north from this low, but these clouds should shift east tonight.
Despite the sunshine tomorrow, lower thicknesses, kept low by that
closed low to our southeast, will mean temperatures stay within 5
degrees of normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Sunday - Friday...

An amplified upper level ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, upstream of a closed upper low off the SE CONUS. This
will result in a warm and dry day with temperatures nearly 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. Most highs should stay
in the upper 70s although a few spots may touch 80 degrees. Sunday
night will be continued dry with mild overnight lows in the low and
mid 50s. Expect to see a light southerly wind to develop toward
dawn, along with increasing upper level sky cover.

By Monday, the upper level ridge axis will move off to the east.
Meanwhile, a shortwave will dive across the northern Plains heading
into the Great Lakes. An associated surface low will strengthen
ahead of this feature with some weak isentropic ascent possible over
the Ohio Valley. Forecast models continue to depict QPF over our
area on Monday, however agree with previous forecast reasoning in
keeping low chances across our western CWA further removed from the
upper level ridge. The main chances for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will arrive Monday night into early Tuesday as the
aforementioned surface low slides across the Great Lakes, dragging a
cold front through our region as it does so. There continues to be
some question as to how much moisture this system will have to work
with as return flow from the Gulf looks to be limited by the upper
level ridge in place the day before.

Highs Monday will be a bit cooler in the mid 70s under increased sky
cover. Monday night will be even milder than Sunday night under a
steady southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front. Tuesday
will see highs in the lower 70s despite being post frontal as we`ll
see some peaks at the sun in the afternoon and cooler air lags
behind a bit.

We`ll see a dry period of weather Tuesday night through Thursday as
progressive upper level ridging builds back over the region, and
high pressure at the surface also holds. Temperatures Wednesday will
be the coolest of the period and should top out right around 70
degrees. Thursday will be back in the mid 70s. Overnight lows during
mid week will generally be near the normal mark.

Confidence decreases by the end of next week as the progressive
upper level ridge pushes off to the east and the next trough moves
in. There is general agreement in the next wave developing, however
timing is certainly in question. Will go with low chances for
showers and a t-storm during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Seeing some clouds develop on the edge of the cirrus shield, now
stretching frmo KBWG to KSDF. These clouds are fairly high-based
though at 4500 feet, so VFR conditions look to prevail. AMDAR
soundings still show a pretty strong cap at 7500 feet, so it should
be hard to get any precip today, even with a weak front in the
region. Winds will become more northeasterly Saturday as a storm
system passes through the southeast U.S.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181650
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Forecast soundings match up with morning AMDAR soundings showing a
thin saturated layer around 6-7 kft, with a strong inversion above
it and dry air below. Dissipating front remains to our northwest.
Given the negative factors for precipitation, will remove pops from
the morning forecast but still keep us mostly cloudy. Temperatures
still should get up to around 70 for most locations. The pressure
gradient is nil in the vicinity of this front, so have light and
variable winds.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Seeing some clouds develop on the edge of the cirrus shield, now
stretching frmo KBWG to KSDF. These clouds are fairly high-based
though at 4500 feet, so VFR conditions look to prevail. AMDAR
soundings still show a pretty strong cap at 7500 feet, so it should
be hard to get any precip today, even with a weak front in the
region. Winds will become more northeasterly Saturday as a storm
system passes through the southeast U.S.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181650
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Forecast soundings match up with morning AMDAR soundings showing a
thin saturated layer around 6-7 kft, with a strong inversion above
it and dry air below. Dissipating front remains to our northwest.
Given the negative factors for precipitation, will remove pops from
the morning forecast but still keep us mostly cloudy. Temperatures
still should get up to around 70 for most locations. The pressure
gradient is nil in the vicinity of this front, so have light and
variable winds.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Seeing some clouds develop on the edge of the cirrus shield, now
stretching frmo KBWG to KSDF. These clouds are fairly high-based
though at 4500 feet, so VFR conditions look to prevail. AMDAR
soundings still show a pretty strong cap at 7500 feet, so it should
be hard to get any precip today, even with a weak front in the
region. Winds will become more northeasterly Saturday as a storm
system passes through the southeast U.S.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 181325
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
925 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Forecast soundings match up with morning AMDAR soundings showing a
thin saturated layer around 6-7 kft, with a strong inversion above
it and dry air below. Dissipating front remains to our northwest.
Given the negative factors for precipitation, will remove pops from
the morning forecast but still keep us mostly cloudy. Temperatures
still should get up to around 70 for most locations. The pressure
gradient is nil in the vicinity of this front, so have light and
variable winds.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will move through the region today.  The lack
of forcing should result in mainly cloudy and dry conditions.  A few
isolated showers may pass near the KBWG terminal, but such isolated
nature precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.  VFR conditions
are expected through the period with mainly light and variable
winds.  Expect a clearing of skies after 19/00Z with VFR conditions
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181325
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
925 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Forecast soundings match up with morning AMDAR soundings showing a
thin saturated layer around 6-7 kft, with a strong inversion above
it and dry air below. Dissipating front remains to our northwest.
Given the negative factors for precipitation, will remove pops from
the morning forecast but still keep us mostly cloudy. Temperatures
still should get up to around 70 for most locations. The pressure
gradient is nil in the vicinity of this front, so have light and
variable winds.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will move through the region today.  The lack
of forcing should result in mainly cloudy and dry conditions.  A few
isolated showers may pass near the KBWG terminal, but such isolated
nature precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.  VFR conditions
are expected through the period with mainly light and variable
winds.  Expect a clearing of skies after 19/00Z with VFR conditions
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 181053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will move through the region today.  The lack
of forcing should result in mainly cloudy and dry conditions.  A few
isolated showers may pass near the KBWG terminal, but such isolated
nature precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.  VFR conditions
are expected through the period with mainly light and variable
winds.  Expect a clearing of skies after 19/00Z with VFR conditions
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 181053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will move through the region today.  The lack
of forcing should result in mainly cloudy and dry conditions.  A few
isolated showers may pass near the KBWG terminal, but such isolated
nature precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.  VFR conditions
are expected through the period with mainly light and variable
winds.  Expect a clearing of skies after 19/00Z with VFR conditions
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 180727
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will approach the region this morning.  With
the lack of any significant forcing, this front will just be
accompanied by mid-high level cloudiness.  VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period with generally light and
variable winds.  We will likely see a bit of cu develop during the
day tomorrow with bases around 5kft AGL.  Clearing skies are
expected toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 180727
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will approach the region this morning.  With
the lack of any significant forcing, this front will just be
accompanied by mid-high level cloudiness.  VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period with generally light and
variable winds.  We will likely see a bit of cu develop during the
day tomorrow with bases around 5kft AGL.  Clearing skies are
expected toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 180514
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
114 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather
expected.

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will approach the region this morning.  With
the lack of any significant forcing, this front will just be
accompanied by mid-high level cloudiness.  VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period with generally light and
variable winds.  We will likely see a bit of cu develop during the
day tomorrow with bases around 5kft AGL.  Clearing skies are
expected toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 180514
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
114 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather
expected.

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will approach the region this morning.  With
the lack of any significant forcing, this front will just be
accompanied by mid-high level cloudiness.  VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period with generally light and
variable winds.  We will likely see a bit of cu develop during the
day tomorrow with bases around 5kft AGL.  Clearing skies are
expected toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 172254
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather
expected.

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

A weakening front will approach from the northwest tonight. Winds
will become light and variable this evening and continue that way
through tomorrow as the front slowly moves into the area. Cirrus
will continue to stream over the area tonight with a scattered to
broken cu deck developing tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 172254
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather
expected.

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

A weakening front will approach from the northwest tonight. Winds
will become light and variable this evening and continue that way
through tomorrow as the front slowly moves into the area. Cirrus
will continue to stream over the area tonight with a scattered to
broken cu deck developing tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 171904
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
304 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather
expected.

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

A dissipating frontal boundary will approach from the northwest
tonight. Winds ahead of this front the rest of the afternoon will be
from the south and southwest. As the night falls and the pressure
gradient loosens with the front approaching, winds will become light
and variable. Low-level moisture is still lacking with this front,
so expect VFR conditions the rest of this period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 171723
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 835 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The Kentucky Mesonet and other observations around the area
indicate temperatures in our normally cool locations are rising
quickly, thus the threat for frost is over. Have cancelled the rest
of the advisory. Also, given the quick rise so far have trended high
temperatures up a little.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

A dissipating frontal boundary will approach from the northwest
tonight. Winds ahead of this front the rest of the afternoon will be
from the south and southwest. As the night falls and the pressure
gradient loosens with the front approaching, winds will become light
and variable. Low-level moisture is still lacking with this front,
so expect VFR conditions the rest of this period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 171723
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 835 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The Kentucky Mesonet and other observations around the area
indicate temperatures in our normally cool locations are rising
quickly, thus the threat for frost is over. Have cancelled the rest
of the advisory. Also, given the quick rise so far have trended high
temperatures up a little.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

A dissipating frontal boundary will approach from the northwest
tonight. Winds ahead of this front the rest of the afternoon will be
from the south and southwest. As the night falls and the pressure
gradient loosens with the front approaching, winds will become light
and variable. Low-level moisture is still lacking with this front,
so expect VFR conditions the rest of this period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 171236
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
836 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 835 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The Kentucky Mesonet and other observations around the area
indicate temperatures in our normally cool locations are rising
quickly, thus the threat for frost is over. Have cancelled the rest
of the advisory. Also, given the quick rise so far have trended high
temperatures up a little.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

High pressure ridge axis will move east of the region today.  A
southerly has already developed across the region this morning.
These winds will become more southwesterly later this morning and
into the afternoon hours. Wind speeds today will be between
8-10kts.  VFR cig/vsbys are expected through the period.  Some high
level cloudiness will be seen at the terminals this morning, but
these will thin out and move east throughout the day.  Another round
of high level clouds will move in later tonight in advance of the
next weather system coming into the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 171236
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
836 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 835 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The Kentucky Mesonet and other observations around the area
indicate temperatures in our normally cool locations are rising
quickly, thus the threat for frost is over. Have cancelled the rest
of the advisory. Also, given the quick rise so far have trended high
temperatures up a little.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

High pressure ridge axis will move east of the region today.  A
southerly has already developed across the region this morning.
These winds will become more southwesterly later this morning and
into the afternoon hours. Wind speeds today will be between
8-10kts.  VFR cig/vsbys are expected through the period.  Some high
level cloudiness will be seen at the terminals this morning, but
these will thin out and move east throughout the day.  Another round
of high level clouds will move in later tonight in advance of the
next weather system coming into the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 171036
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
636 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

High pressure ridge axis will move east of the region today.  A
southerly has already developed across the region this morning.
These winds will become more southwesterly later this morning and
into the afternoon hours. Wind speeds today will be between
8-10kts.  VFR cig/vsbys are expected through the period.  Some high
level cloudiness will be seen at the terminals this morning, but
these will thin out and move east throughout the day.  Another round
of high level clouds will move in later tonight in advance of the
next weather system coming into the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 171036
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
636 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

High pressure ridge axis will move east of the region today.  A
southerly has already developed across the region this morning.
These winds will become more southwesterly later this morning and
into the afternoon hours. Wind speeds today will be between
8-10kts.  VFR cig/vsbys are expected through the period.  Some high
level cloudiness will be seen at the terminals this morning, but
these will thin out and move east throughout the day.  Another round
of high level clouds will move in later tonight in advance of the
next weather system coming into the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 170709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

High pressure ridge axis is currently centered along the eastern
coastline of the US this morning.  The ridge axis should continue to
move off to the east throughout the period resulting in a more south
to southwesterly flow developing across the Ohio Valley later this
morning.  For the remainder of the overnight period, the forecast is
simply an extension of the previous one.  Band of mid-high level
cirrus will continue to march eastward across the terminals
overnight resulting in BKN250 conditions.  Winds are expected to
remain light and variable at KSDF and KBWG...with a light easterly
to east-southeasterly component over at KLEX.  High clouds are
likely to scatter out later this morning...though VFR are expected
throughout the day.  Surface winds will pick up more from the south
to southwest throughout the day with speeds of 8-10kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 170709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

High pressure ridge axis is currently centered along the eastern
coastline of the US this morning.  The ridge axis should continue to
move off to the east throughout the period resulting in a more south
to southwesterly flow developing across the Ohio Valley later this
morning.  For the remainder of the overnight period, the forecast is
simply an extension of the previous one.  Band of mid-high level
cirrus will continue to march eastward across the terminals
overnight resulting in BKN250 conditions.  Winds are expected to
remain light and variable at KSDF and KBWG...with a light easterly
to east-southeasterly component over at KLEX.  High clouds are
likely to scatter out later this morning...though VFR are expected
throughout the day.  Surface winds will pick up more from the south
to southwest throughout the day with speeds of 8-10kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 170513
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
113 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Areas of frost still look possible east of I-65 tonight.
Temperatures in this area are already in the 42-46 degree range and
expect them to fall into the mid to upper 30s after midnight.  With
dewpts slowly rising throughout the night, low level moisture will
probably be sufficient for frost formation.  However, sfc winds look
like they might stay up a bit possibly limiting frost formation.
Not confident in frost formation but don`t have enough evidence to
remove the advy so will continue it through 13Z.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Quiet weather in store for this period, with a low pressure trekking
slowly across the upper Midwest and a dry airmass in place ahead of
it. The flow aloft will be more moist, allowing for increasing
clouds there, but no precip is forecast in this period, save for the
very end of the period across my western counties.

The only concern will be for frost potential tonight. It continues
to look like our western areas will stay warmer, with slightly
stronger southeast winds and a thin band of thicker cirrus moving in
from the west. The lows I have east of the I-65 corridor are in the
mid 30s. RH values are on the border for frost production, but will
leave frost advisory as is, in case temperatures drop further than
what I have.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

The latest time-height analyses of heights, 850 hPa temperatures,
and 1000-500 hPa thicknesses continue to indicate a warming trend
through the long-term period. There will be two frontal passages,
but these are minor with no major hazardous weather expected.

The first frontal passage will occur Friday, with northern stream
and southern stream systems trying to phase over our area. Latest
guidance indicates some light rain showers are possible, but perhaps
not everywhere given the systems will likely not phase. Have trimmed
PoPs back a bit. Temperatures in the 60s will be common for highs
Friday, with temperatures dropping back into the 40s Friday night.
The weekend looks nice if you like temperatures in the 60s and 70s
under mostly sunny skies and light winds. Clouds will increase
through the day Sunday as our next weather system approaches from
the west.

A progressive system will bring our next round of rain and perhaps a
rumble of thunder to the Ohio Valley around Monday. There remain
some model timing differences with Sunday night through Tuesday
being the window. So, confidence in overall timing remains a bit
low, but even very long-range guidance from last month was pegging a
system moving through here around the 21st. Will continue the chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms centered on Monday. We dry out
Tuesday through Wednesday and continue our warming trend.
Temperatures should top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Monday
and warm into the lower and middle 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

High pressure ridge axis is currently centered along the eastern
coastline of the US this morning.  The ridge axis should continue to
move off to the east throughout the period resulting in a more south
to southwesterly flow developing across the Ohio Valley later this
morning.  For the remainder of the overnight period, the forecast is
simply an extension of the previous one.  Band of mid-high level
cirrus will continue to march eastward across the terminals
overnight resulting in BKN250 conditions.  Winds are expected to
remain light and variable at KSDF and KBWG...with a light easterly
to east-southeasterly component over at KLEX.  High clouds are
likely to scatter out later this morning...though VFR are expected
throughout the day.  Surface winds will pick up more from the south
to southwest throughout the day with speeds of 8-10kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 170513
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
113 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Areas of frost still look possible east of I-65 tonight.
Temperatures in this area are already in the 42-46 degree range and
expect them to fall into the mid to upper 30s after midnight.  With
dewpts slowly rising throughout the night, low level moisture will
probably be sufficient for frost formation.  However, sfc winds look
like they might stay up a bit possibly limiting frost formation.
Not confident in frost formation but don`t have enough evidence to
remove the advy so will continue it through 13Z.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Quiet weather in store for this period, with a low pressure trekking
slowly across the upper Midwest and a dry airmass in place ahead of
it. The flow aloft will be more moist, allowing for increasing
clouds there, but no precip is forecast in this period, save for the
very end of the period across my western counties.

The only concern will be for frost potential tonight. It continues
to look like our western areas will stay warmer, with slightly
stronger southeast winds and a thin band of thicker cirrus moving in
from the west. The lows I have east of the I-65 corridor are in the
mid 30s. RH values are on the border for frost production, but will
leave frost advisory as is, in case temperatures drop further than
what I have.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

The latest time-height analyses of heights, 850 hPa temperatures,
and 1000-500 hPa thicknesses continue to indicate a warming trend
through the long-term period. There will be two frontal passages,
but these are minor with no major hazardous weather expected.

The first frontal passage will occur Friday, with northern stream
and southern stream systems trying to phase over our area. Latest
guidance indicates some light rain showers are possible, but perhaps
not everywhere given the systems will likely not phase. Have trimmed
PoPs back a bit. Temperatures in the 60s will be common for highs
Friday, with temperatures dropping back into the 40s Friday night.
The weekend looks nice if you like temperatures in the 60s and 70s
under mostly sunny skies and light winds. Clouds will increase
through the day Sunday as our next weather system approaches from
the west.

A progressive system will bring our next round of rain and perhaps a
rumble of thunder to the Ohio Valley around Monday. There remain
some model timing differences with Sunday night through Tuesday
being the window. So, confidence in overall timing remains a bit
low, but even very long-range guidance from last month was pegging a
system moving through here around the 21st. Will continue the chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms centered on Monday. We dry out
Tuesday through Wednesday and continue our warming trend.
Temperatures should top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Monday
and warm into the lower and middle 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

High pressure ridge axis is currently centered along the eastern
coastline of the US this morning.  The ridge axis should continue to
move off to the east throughout the period resulting in a more south
to southwesterly flow developing across the Ohio Valley later this
morning.  For the remainder of the overnight period, the forecast is
simply an extension of the previous one.  Band of mid-high level
cirrus will continue to march eastward across the terminals
overnight resulting in BKN250 conditions.  Winds are expected to
remain light and variable at KSDF and KBWG...with a light easterly
to east-southeasterly component over at KLEX.  High clouds are
likely to scatter out later this morning...though VFR are expected
throughout the day.  Surface winds will pick up more from the south
to southwest throughout the day with speeds of 8-10kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 170218
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1018 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Areas of frost still look possible east of I-65 tonight.
Temperatures in this area are already in the 42-46 degree range and
expect them to fall into the mid to upper 30s after midnight.  With
dewpts slowly rising throughout the night, low level moisture will
probably be sufficient for frost formation.  However, sfc winds look
like they might stay up a bit possibly limiting frost formation.
Not confident in frost formation but don`t have enough evidence to
remove the advy so will continue it through 13Z.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Quiet weather in store for this period, with a low pressure trekking
slowly across the upper Midwest and a dry airmass in place ahead of
it. The flow aloft will be more moist, allowing for increasing
clouds there, but no precip is forecast in this period, save for the
very end of the period across my western counties.

The only concern will be for frost potential tonight. It continues
to look like our western areas will stay warmer, with slightly
stronger southeast winds and a thin band of thicker cirrus moving in
from the west. The lows I have east of the I-65 corridor are in the
mid 30s. RH values are on the border for frost production, but will
leave frost advisory as is, in case temperatures drop further than
what I have.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

The latest time-height analyses of heights, 850 hPa temperatures,
and 1000-500 hPa thicknesses continue to indicate a warming trend
through the long-term period. There will be two frontal passages,
but these are minor with no major hazardous weather expected.

The first frontal passage will occur Friday, with northern stream
and southern stream systems trying to phase over our area. Latest
guidance indicates some light rain showers are possible, but perhaps
not everywhere given the systems will likely not phase. Have trimmed
PoPs back a bit. Temperatures in the 60s will be common for highs
Friday, with temperatures dropping back into the 40s Friday night.
The weekend looks nice if you like temperatures in the 60s and 70s
under mostly sunny skies and light winds. Clouds will increase
through the day Sunday as our next weather system approaches from
the west.

A progressive system will bring our next round of rain and perhaps a
rumble of thunder to the Ohio Valley around Monday. There remain
some model timing differences with Sunday night through Tuesday
being the window. So, confidence in overall timing remains a bit
low, but even very long-range guidance from last month was pegging a
system moving through here around the 21st. Will continue the chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms centered on Monday. We dry out
Tuesday through Wednesday and continue our warming trend.
Temperatures should top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Monday
and warm into the lower and middle 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure centered over New York this evening will continue to
slowly lift off the the northeast through this TAF period. Winds
will become variable overnight, shifting from easterly to southerly
with speeds around 4-6 knots. Southerly flow is expected tomorrow
with speeds in the 8-10 knot range. Cirrus will continue to stream
across the region through tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 170218
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1018 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Areas of frost still look possible east of I-65 tonight.
Temperatures in this area are already in the 42-46 degree range and
expect them to fall into the mid to upper 30s after midnight.  With
dewpts slowly rising throughout the night, low level moisture will
probably be sufficient for frost formation.  However, sfc winds look
like they might stay up a bit possibly limiting frost formation.
Not confident in frost formation but don`t have enough evidence to
remove the advy so will continue it through 13Z.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Quiet weather in store for this period, with a low pressure trekking
slowly across the upper Midwest and a dry airmass in place ahead of
it. The flow aloft will be more moist, allowing for increasing
clouds there, but no precip is forecast in this period, save for the
very end of the period across my western counties.

The only concern will be for frost potential tonight. It continues
to look like our western areas will stay warmer, with slightly
stronger southeast winds and a thin band of thicker cirrus moving in
from the west. The lows I have east of the I-65 corridor are in the
mid 30s. RH values are on the border for frost production, but will
leave frost advisory as is, in case temperatures drop further than
what I have.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

The latest time-height analyses of heights, 850 hPa temperatures,
and 1000-500 hPa thicknesses continue to indicate a warming trend
through the long-term period. There will be two frontal passages,
but these are minor with no major hazardous weather expected.

The first frontal passage will occur Friday, with northern stream
and southern stream systems trying to phase over our area. Latest
guidance indicates some light rain showers are possible, but perhaps
not everywhere given the systems will likely not phase. Have trimmed
PoPs back a bit. Temperatures in the 60s will be common for highs
Friday, with temperatures dropping back into the 40s Friday night.
The weekend looks nice if you like temperatures in the 60s and 70s
under mostly sunny skies and light winds. Clouds will increase
through the day Sunday as our next weather system approaches from
the west.

A progressive system will bring our next round of rain and perhaps a
rumble of thunder to the Ohio Valley around Monday. There remain
some model timing differences with Sunday night through Tuesday
being the window. So, confidence in overall timing remains a bit
low, but even very long-range guidance from last month was pegging a
system moving through here around the 21st. Will continue the chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms centered on Monday. We dry out
Tuesday through Wednesday and continue our warming trend.
Temperatures should top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Monday
and warm into the lower and middle 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure centered over New York this evening will continue to
slowly lift off the the northeast through this TAF period. Winds
will become variable overnight, shifting from easterly to southerly
with speeds around 4-6 knots. Southerly flow is expected tomorrow
with speeds in the 8-10 knot range. Cirrus will continue to stream
across the region through tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 162242
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
642 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Quiet weather in store for this period, with a low pressure trekking
slowly across the upper Midwest and a dry airmass in place ahead of
it. The flow aloft will be more moist, allowing for increasing
clouds there, but no precip is forecast in this period, save for the
very end of the period across my western counties.

The only concern will be for frost potential tonight. It continues
to look like our western areas will stay warmer, with slightly
stronger southeast winds and a thin band of thicker cirrus moving in
from the west. The lows I have east of the I-65 corridor are in the
mid 30s. RH values are on the border for frost production, but will
leave frost advisory as is, in case temperatures drop further than
what I have.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

The latest time-height analyses of heights, 850 hPa temperatures,
and 1000-500 hPa thicknesses continue to indicate a warming trend
through the long-term period. There will be two frontal passages,
but these are minor with no major hazardous weather expected.

The first frontal passage will occur Friday, with northern stream
and southern stream systems trying to phase over our area. Latest
guidance indicates some light rain showers are possible, but perhaps
not everywhere given the systems will likely not phase. Have trimmed
PoPs back a bit. Temperatures in the 60s will be common for highs
Friday, with temperatures dropping back into the 40s Friday night.
The weekend looks nice if you like temperatures in the 60s and 70s
under mostly sunny skies and light winds. Clouds will increase
through the day Sunday as our next weather system approaches from
the west.

A progressive system will bring our next round of rain and perhaps a
rumble of thunder to the Ohio Valley around Monday. There remain
some model timing differences with Sunday night through Tuesday
being the window. So, confidence in overall timing remains a bit
low, but even very long-range guidance from last month was pegging a
system moving through here around the 21st. Will continue the chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms centered on Monday. We dry out
Tuesday through Wednesday and continue our warming trend.
Temperatures should top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Monday
and warm into the lower and middle 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure centered over New York this evening will continue to
slowly lift off the the northeast through this TAF period. Winds
will become variable overnight, shifting from easterly to southerly
with speeds around 4-6 knots. Southerly flow is expected tomorrow
with speeds in the 8-10 knot range. Cirrus will continue to stream
across the region through tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 161902
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Quiet weather in store for this period, with a low pressure trekking
slowly across the upper Midwest and a dry airmass in place ahead of
it. The flow aloft will be more moist, allowing for increasing
clouds there, but no precip is forecast in this period, save for the
very end of the period across my western counties.

The only concern will be for frost potential tonight. It continues
to look like our western areas will stay warmer, with slightly
stronger southeast winds and a thin band of thicker cirrus moving in
from the west. The lows I have east of the I-65 corridor are in the
mid 30s. RH values are on the border for frost production, but will
leave frost advisory as is, in case temperatures drop further than
what I have.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

The latest time-height analyses of heights, 850 hPa temperatures,
and 1000-500 hPa thicknesses continue to indicate a warming trend
through the long-term period. There will be two frontal passages,
but these are minor with no major hazardous weather expected.

The first frontal passage will occur Friday, with northern stream
and southern stream systems trying to phase over our area. Latest
guidance indicates some light rain showers are possible, but perhaps
not everywhere given the systems will likely not phase. Have trimmed
PoPs back a bit. Temperatures in the 60s will be common for highs
Friday, with temperatures dropping back into the 40s Friday night.
The weekend looks nice if you like temperatures in the 60s and 70s
under mostly sunny skies and light winds. Clouds will increase
through the day Sunday as our next weather system approaches from
the west.

A progressive system will bring our next round of rain and perhaps a
rumble of thunder to the Ohio Valley around Monday. There remain
some model timing differences with Sunday night through Tuesday
being the window. So, confidence in overall timing remains a bit
low, but even very long-range guidance from last month was pegging a
system moving through here around the 21st. Will continue the chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms centered on Monday. We dry out
Tuesday through Wednesday and continue our warming trend.
Temperatures should top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Monday
and warm into the lower and middle 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure over western NY this afternoon will continue lifting
northeast this period as low pressure travels across the upper
Midwest. With us in between and a distance from these systems, our
air flow is a moderate easterly today and that should shift to
southerly Thursday. A dry low-level airmass over us should keep VFR
conditions through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 161902
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Quiet weather in store for this period, with a low pressure trekking
slowly across the upper Midwest and a dry airmass in place ahead of
it. The flow aloft will be more moist, allowing for increasing
clouds there, but no precip is forecast in this period, save for the
very end of the period across my western counties.

The only concern will be for frost potential tonight. It continues
to look like our western areas will stay warmer, with slightly
stronger southeast winds and a thin band of thicker cirrus moving in
from the west. The lows I have east of the I-65 corridor are in the
mid 30s. RH values are on the border for frost production, but will
leave frost advisory as is, in case temperatures drop further than
what I have.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

The latest time-height analyses of heights, 850 hPa temperatures,
and 1000-500 hPa thicknesses continue to indicate a warming trend
through the long-term period. There will be two frontal passages,
but these are minor with no major hazardous weather expected.

The first frontal passage will occur Friday, with northern stream
and southern stream systems trying to phase over our area. Latest
guidance indicates some light rain showers are possible, but perhaps
not everywhere given the systems will likely not phase. Have trimmed
PoPs back a bit. Temperatures in the 60s will be common for highs
Friday, with temperatures dropping back into the 40s Friday night.
The weekend looks nice if you like temperatures in the 60s and 70s
under mostly sunny skies and light winds. Clouds will increase
through the day Sunday as our next weather system approaches from
the west.

A progressive system will bring our next round of rain and perhaps a
rumble of thunder to the Ohio Valley around Monday. There remain
some model timing differences with Sunday night through Tuesday
being the window. So, confidence in overall timing remains a bit
low, but even very long-range guidance from last month was pegging a
system moving through here around the 21st. Will continue the chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms centered on Monday. We dry out
Tuesday through Wednesday and continue our warming trend.
Temperatures should top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Monday
and warm into the lower and middle 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure over western NY this afternoon will continue lifting
northeast this period as low pressure travels across the upper
Midwest. With us in between and a distance from these systems, our
air flow is a moderate easterly today and that should shift to
southerly Thursday. A dry low-level airmass over us should keep VFR
conditions through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 161642
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1242 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Cold dome of high pressure now shifting east of the region. Had
Bowling Green tie their record cold and Frankfort break their record
this morning. That high will shift east of the region today, with
winds picking up from the east and southeast. Under sunny skies we
should top out in the mid to upper 50s for most locations. As all
sites now are above freezing, have cancelled the freeze warning a
little early. Sent out a zone update to handle this headline change
and to trend toward current obs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Surface ridge is currently centered over the I-65 corridor this
morning.  To the east of the ridge, a light northeast wind has kept
temperatures from falling as quickly as we would normally see in a
radiational cooling situation.  However, as the ridge axis moves a
little more east this morning, we should see winds slacken off a bit
more allowing temperatures to fall.  In general, temperatures this
morning were in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.  The lower 20s were
confined to areas mainly north of the Bluegrass Parkway.  The latest
guidance suggests that temperatures will fall several more degrees
before sunrise with most locations dropping into the mid-upper 20s.
Needless to say, temperatures below 29 degrees for several hours
this morning will be particularly damaging to unprotected plants and
fruit trees across the region.  We will continue the freeze warning
through the morning hours.

For today, axis of high pressure at the surface will move eastward
and away from the Ohio Valley.  Other than some high clouds passing
through, we expect a mostly sunny, but a cooler than normal day.
Afternoon highs will range from the lower 50s in the north to the
mid-upper 50s across the south.  A few areas along the KY/TN border
region may get close to 60 this afternoon.

For Tonight, another mostly clear night is expected.  With the high
pressure ridge to the east of the region, we`ll see a more
pronounced southerly wind flow develop this evening and into the
overnight hours.  In fact, winds are likely to go more southwesterly
across the western areas late tonight.  This will likely result in a
gradient of temperature across the forecast area with lower 30s in
the east and middle 30s along and west of I-65.  In areas east of
I-65, there is a very good possibility for several hours of
temperature readings below 35 degrees.  In coordination with
surrounding offices, we will be going with a Frost Advisory for our
eastern half of the forecast area tonight.  Should later guidance
suggest cooler temperatures a bit more west, an additional expansion
to the west could be required in future forecasts.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Well...the long term is characterized by seasonal temperatures and 2
frontal systems.  No major hazardous weather systems in site for the
7 day period.  According to the GFS the long range extended has a
large ridge moving in which could bring the Ohio Valley back above
normal into spring like mercury readings.

Thu Ngt-Fri
The Nrn stream system coming out of the Show Me State and Hawkeye
State pivots across the Land of Lincoln and into the Nrn Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile the srn stream will pivot out of the Crimson State
and move into Ern KY. The models sure try to come together but never
quite seem to phase. Quite honestly, there is a distinct possibility
that the CWA might be gapped by the precip. Agree with day shift
long term fcstr that there is still a modicum of forcing to squeeze
out scattered light showers. Looking at the model soundings, there
is hint of some isolated elevated convection, but will limit the
mention of thunder and the QPF looks rather meager.  System will
move out on Good Friday and clouds will decrease and will move
eastbound.

Fri Ngt through Easter Sunday

Behind the front, shortwave upper ridging will keep areas nice and
dry over the weekend. Saturday will be on the cool side with N-NE
low-level flow, but rising heights will put Sunday back above
normal.

Sunday night and Monday...

A progressive southern stream system will bring the next round of
precip to the Ohio Valley around Monday, but confidence in the exact
timing is limited. The GFS and Euro are quite divergent next week on
the timing and extent of this system, so will only be making minor
tweaks to the previous fcst. The timing is too uncertain to put more
than a chance POP in any given time period.

Tuesday and beyond...

The eastern extent of the central US upper ridge diverges in the
long range models. For now looks like normal to above normal temps
looks prudent at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure over western NY this afternoon will continue lifting
northeast this period as low pressure travels across the upper
Midwest. With us in between and a distance from these systems, our
air flow is a moderate easterly today and that should shift to
southerly Thursday. A dry low-level airmass over us should keep VFR
conditions through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 161642
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1242 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Cold dome of high pressure now shifting east of the region. Had
Bowling Green tie their record cold and Frankfort break their record
this morning. That high will shift east of the region today, with
winds picking up from the east and southeast. Under sunny skies we
should top out in the mid to upper 50s for most locations. As all
sites now are above freezing, have cancelled the freeze warning a
little early. Sent out a zone update to handle this headline change
and to trend toward current obs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Surface ridge is currently centered over the I-65 corridor this
morning.  To the east of the ridge, a light northeast wind has kept
temperatures from falling as quickly as we would normally see in a
radiational cooling situation.  However, as the ridge axis moves a
little more east this morning, we should see winds slacken off a bit
more allowing temperatures to fall.  In general, temperatures this
morning were in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.  The lower 20s were
confined to areas mainly north of the Bluegrass Parkway.  The latest
guidance suggests that temperatures will fall several more degrees
before sunrise with most locations dropping into the mid-upper 20s.
Needless to say, temperatures below 29 degrees for several hours
this morning will be particularly damaging to unprotected plants and
fruit trees across the region.  We will continue the freeze warning
through the morning hours.

For today, axis of high pressure at the surface will move eastward
and away from the Ohio Valley.  Other than some high clouds passing
through, we expect a mostly sunny, but a cooler than normal day.
Afternoon highs will range from the lower 50s in the north to the
mid-upper 50s across the south.  A few areas along the KY/TN border
region may get close to 60 this afternoon.

For Tonight, another mostly clear night is expected.  With the high
pressure ridge to the east of the region, we`ll see a more
pronounced southerly wind flow develop this evening and into the
overnight hours.  In fact, winds are likely to go more southwesterly
across the western areas late tonight.  This will likely result in a
gradient of temperature across the forecast area with lower 30s in
the east and middle 30s along and west of I-65.  In areas east of
I-65, there is a very good possibility for several hours of
temperature readings below 35 degrees.  In coordination with
surrounding offices, we will be going with a Frost Advisory for our
eastern half of the forecast area tonight.  Should later guidance
suggest cooler temperatures a bit more west, an additional expansion
to the west could be required in future forecasts.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Well...the long term is characterized by seasonal temperatures and 2
frontal systems.  No major hazardous weather systems in site for the
7 day period.  According to the GFS the long range extended has a
large ridge moving in which could bring the Ohio Valley back above
normal into spring like mercury readings.

Thu Ngt-Fri
The Nrn stream system coming out of the Show Me State and Hawkeye
State pivots across the Land of Lincoln and into the Nrn Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile the srn stream will pivot out of the Crimson State
and move into Ern KY. The models sure try to come together but never
quite seem to phase. Quite honestly, there is a distinct possibility
that the CWA might be gapped by the precip. Agree with day shift
long term fcstr that there is still a modicum of forcing to squeeze
out scattered light showers. Looking at the model soundings, there
is hint of some isolated elevated convection, but will limit the
mention of thunder and the QPF looks rather meager.  System will
move out on Good Friday and clouds will decrease and will move
eastbound.

Fri Ngt through Easter Sunday

Behind the front, shortwave upper ridging will keep areas nice and
dry over the weekend. Saturday will be on the cool side with N-NE
low-level flow, but rising heights will put Sunday back above
normal.

Sunday night and Monday...

A progressive southern stream system will bring the next round of
precip to the Ohio Valley around Monday, but confidence in the exact
timing is limited. The GFS and Euro are quite divergent next week on
the timing and extent of this system, so will only be making minor
tweaks to the previous fcst. The timing is too uncertain to put more
than a chance POP in any given time period.

Tuesday and beyond...

The eastern extent of the central US upper ridge diverges in the
long range models. For now looks like normal to above normal temps
looks prudent at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure over western NY this afternoon will continue lifting
northeast this period as low pressure travels across the upper
Midwest. With us in between and a distance from these systems, our
air flow is a moderate easterly today and that should shift to
southerly Thursday. A dry low-level airmass over us should keep VFR
conditions through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 161353
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
953 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Cold dome of high pressure now shifting east of the region. Had
Bowling Green tie their record cold and Frankfort break their record
this morning. That high will shift east of the region today, with
winds picking up from the east and southeast. Under sunny skies we
should top out in the mid to upper 50s for most locations. As all
sites now are above freezing, have cancelled the freeze warning a
little early. Sent out a zone update to handle this headline change
and to trend toward current obs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Surface ridge is currently centered over the I-65 corridor this
morning.  To the east of the ridge, a light northeast wind has kept
temperatures from falling as quickly as we would normally see in a
radiational cooling situation.  However, as the ridge axis moves a
little more east this morning, we should see winds slacken off a bit
more allowing temperatures to fall.  In general, temperatures this
morning were in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.  The lower 20s were
confined to areas mainly north of the Bluegrass Parkway.  The latest
guidance suggests that temperatures will fall several more degrees
before sunrise with most locations dropping into the mid-upper 20s.
Needless to say, temperatures below 29 degrees for several hours
this morning will be particularly damaging to unprotected plants and
fruit trees across the region.  We will continue the freeze warning
through the morning hours.

For today, axis of high pressure at the surface will move eastward
and away from the Ohio Valley.  Other than some high clouds passing
through, we expect a mostly sunny, but a cooler than normal day.
Afternoon highs will range from the lower 50s in the north to the
mid-upper 50s across the south.  A few areas along the KY/TN border
region may get close to 60 this afternoon.

For Tonight, another mostly clear night is expected.  With the high
pressure ridge to the east of the region, we`ll see a more
pronounced southerly wind flow develop this evening and into the
overnight hours.  In fact, winds are likely to go more southwesterly
across the western areas late tonight.  This will likely result in a
gradient of temperature across the forecast area with lower 30s in
the east and middle 30s along and west of I-65.  In areas east of
I-65, there is a very good possibility for several hours of
temperature readings below 35 degrees.  In coordination with
surrounding offices, we will be going with a Frost Advisory for our
eastern half of the forecast area tonight.  Should later guidance
suggest cooler temperatures a bit more west, an additional expansion
to the west could be required in future forecasts.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Well...the long term is characterized by seasonal temperatures and 2
frontal systems.  No major hazardous weather systems in site for the
7 day period.  According to the GFS the long range extended has a
large ridge moving in which could bring the Ohio Valley back above
normal into spring like mercury readings.

Thu Ngt-Fri
The Nrn stream system coming out of the Show Me State and Hawkeye
State pivots across the Land of Lincoln and into the Nrn Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile the srn stream will pivot out of the Crimson State
and move into Ern KY. The models sure try to come together but never
quite seem to phase. Quite honestly, there is a distinct possibility
that the CWA might be gapped by the precip. Agree with day shift
long term fcstr that there is still a modicum of forcing to squeeze
out scattered light showers. Looking at the model soundings, there
is hint of some isolated elevated convection, but will limit the
mention of thunder and the QPF looks rather meager.  System will
move out on Good Friday and clouds will decrease and will move
eastbound.

Fri Ngt through Easter Sunday

Behind the front, shortwave upper ridging will keep areas nice and
dry over the weekend. Saturday will be on the cool side with N-NE
low-level flow, but rising heights will put Sunday back above
normal.

Sunday night and Monday...

A progressive southern stream system will bring the next round of
precip to the Ohio Valley around Monday, but confidence in the exact
timing is limited. The GFS and Euro are quite divergent next week on
the timing and extent of this system, so will only be making minor
tweaks to the previous fcst. The timing is too uncertain to put more
than a chance POP in any given time period.

Tuesday and beyond...

The eastern extent of the central US upper ridge diverges in the
long range models. For now looks like normal to above normal temps
looks prudent at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure will continue to work eastward across the region this
morning.  This will result in VFR conditions at all the terminals
for the upcoming TAF period.  Light and variable winds this morning
will give way to east to east-southeasterly winds by mid-morning and
into the afternoon hours with speeds of 8-10kts.  Some high level
cirrus will move through the region today, but will have no impact
on aviation at the terminals.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 161353
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
953 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Cold dome of high pressure now shifting east of the region. Had
Bowling Green tie their record cold and Frankfort break their record
this morning. That high will shift east of the region today, with
winds picking up from the east and southeast. Under sunny skies we
should top out in the mid to upper 50s for most locations. As all
sites now are above freezing, have cancelled the freeze warning a
little early. Sent out a zone update to handle this headline change
and to trend toward current obs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Surface ridge is currently centered over the I-65 corridor this
morning.  To the east of the ridge, a light northeast wind has kept
temperatures from falling as quickly as we would normally see in a
radiational cooling situation.  However, as the ridge axis moves a
little more east this morning, we should see winds slacken off a bit
more allowing temperatures to fall.  In general, temperatures this
morning were in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.  The lower 20s were
confined to areas mainly north of the Bluegrass Parkway.  The latest
guidance suggests that temperatures will fall several more degrees
before sunrise with most locations dropping into the mid-upper 20s.
Needless to say, temperatures below 29 degrees for several hours
this morning will be particularly damaging to unprotected plants and
fruit trees across the region.  We will continue the freeze warning
through the morning hours.

For today, axis of high pressure at the surface will move eastward
and away from the Ohio Valley.  Other than some high clouds passing
through, we expect a mostly sunny, but a cooler than normal day.
Afternoon highs will range from the lower 50s in the north to the
mid-upper 50s across the south.  A few areas along the KY/TN border
region may get close to 60 this afternoon.

For Tonight, another mostly clear night is expected.  With the high
pressure ridge to the east of the region, we`ll see a more
pronounced southerly wind flow develop this evening and into the
overnight hours.  In fact, winds are likely to go more southwesterly
across the western areas late tonight.  This will likely result in a
gradient of temperature across the forecast area with lower 30s in
the east and middle 30s along and west of I-65.  In areas east of
I-65, there is a very good possibility for several hours of
temperature readings below 35 degrees.  In coordination with
surrounding offices, we will be going with a Frost Advisory for our
eastern half of the forecast area tonight.  Should later guidance
suggest cooler temperatures a bit more west, an additional expansion
to the west could be required in future forecasts.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Well...the long term is characterized by seasonal temperatures and 2
frontal systems.  No major hazardous weather systems in site for the
7 day period.  According to the GFS the long range extended has a
large ridge moving in which could bring the Ohio Valley back above
normal into spring like mercury readings.

Thu Ngt-Fri
The Nrn stream system coming out of the Show Me State and Hawkeye
State pivots across the Land of Lincoln and into the Nrn Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile the srn stream will pivot out of the Crimson State
and move into Ern KY. The models sure try to come together but never
quite seem to phase. Quite honestly, there is a distinct possibility
that the CWA might be gapped by the precip. Agree with day shift
long term fcstr that there is still a modicum of forcing to squeeze
out scattered light showers. Looking at the model soundings, there
is hint of some isolated elevated convection, but will limit the
mention of thunder and the QPF looks rather meager.  System will
move out on Good Friday and clouds will decrease and will move
eastbound.

Fri Ngt through Easter Sunday

Behind the front, shortwave upper ridging will keep areas nice and
dry over the weekend. Saturday will be on the cool side with N-NE
low-level flow, but rising heights will put Sunday back above
normal.

Sunday night and Monday...

A progressive southern stream system will bring the next round of
precip to the Ohio Valley around Monday, but confidence in the exact
timing is limited. The GFS and Euro are quite divergent next week on
the timing and extent of this system, so will only be making minor
tweaks to the previous fcst. The timing is too uncertain to put more
than a chance POP in any given time period.

Tuesday and beyond...

The eastern extent of the central US upper ridge diverges in the
long range models. For now looks like normal to above normal temps
looks prudent at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure will continue to work eastward across the region this
morning.  This will result in VFR conditions at all the terminals
for the upcoming TAF period.  Light and variable winds this morning
will give way to east to east-southeasterly winds by mid-morning and
into the afternoon hours with speeds of 8-10kts.  Some high level
cirrus will move through the region today, but will have no impact
on aviation at the terminals.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 161031
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
631 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Surface ridge is currently centered over the I-65 corridor this
morning.  To the east of the ridge, a light northeast wind has kept
temperatures from falling as quickly as we would normally see in a
radiational cooling situation.  However, as the ridge axis moves a
little more east this morning, we should see winds slacken off a bit
more allowing temperatures to fall.  In general, temperatures this
morning were in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.  The lower 20s were
confined to areas mainly north of the Bluegrass Parkway.  The latest
guidance suggests that temperatures will fall several more degrees
before sunrise with most locations dropping into the mid-upper 20s.
Needless to say, temperatures below 29 degrees for several hours
this morning will be particularly damaging to unprotected plants and
fruit trees across the region.  We will continue the freeze warning
through the morning hours.

For today, axis of high pressure at the surface will move eastward
and away from the Ohio Valley.  Other than some high clouds passing
through, we expect a mostly sunny, but a cooler than normal day.
Afternoon highs will range from the lower 50s in the north to the
mid-upper 50s across the south.  A few areas along the KY/TN border
region may get close to 60 this afternoon.

For Tonight, another mostly clear night is expected.  With the high
pressure ridge to the east of the region, we`ll see a more
pronounced southerly wind flow develop this evening and into the
overnight hours.  In fact, winds are likely to go more southwesterly
across the western areas late tonight.  This will likely result in a
gradient of temperature across the forecast area with lower 30s in
the east and middle 30s along and west of I-65.  In areas east of
I-65, there is a very good possibility for several hours of
temperature readings below 35 degrees.  In coordination with
surrounding offices, we will be going with a Frost Advisory for our
eastern half of the forecast area tonight.  Should later guidance
suggest cooler temperatures a bit more west, an additional expansion
to the west could be required in future forecasts.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Well...the long term is characterized by seasonal temperatures and 2
frontal systems.  No major hazardous weather systems in site for the
7 day period.  According to the GFS the long range extended has a
large ridge moving in which could bring the Ohio Valley back above
normal into spring like mercury readings.

Thu Ngt-Fri
The Nrn stream system coming out of the Show Me State and Hawkeye
State pivots across the Land of Lincoln and into the Nrn Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile the srn stream will pivot out of the Crimson State
and move into Ern KY. The models sure try to come together but never
quite seem to phase. Quite honestly, there is a distinct possibility
that the CWA might be gapped by the precip. Agree with day shift
long term fcstr that there is still a modicum of forcing to squeeze
out scattered light showers. Looking at the model soundings, there
is hint of some isolated elevated convection, but will limit the
mention of thunder and the QPF looks rather meager.  System will
move out on Good Friday and clouds will decrease and will move
eastbound.

Fri Ngt through Easter Sunday

Behind the front, shortwave upper ridging will keep areas nice and
dry over the weekend. Saturday will be on the cool side with N-NE
low-level flow, but rising heights will put Sunday back above
normal.

Sunday night and Monday...

A progressive southern stream system will bring the next round of
precip to the Ohio Valley around Monday, but confidence in the exact
timing is limited. The GFS and Euro are quite divergent next week on
the timing and extent of this system, so will only be making minor
tweaks to the previous fcst. The timing is too uncertain to put more
than a chance POP in any given time period.

Tuesday and beyond...

The eastern extent of the central US upper ridge diverges in the
long range models. For now looks like normal to above normal temps
looks prudent at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure will continue to work eastward across the region this
morning.  This will result in VFR conditions at all the terminals
for the upcoming TAF period.  Light and variable winds this morning
will give way to east to east-southeasterly winds by mid-morning and
into the afternoon hours with speeds of 8-10kts.  Some high level
cirrus will move through the region today, but will have no impact
on aviation at the terminals.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 161031
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
631 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Surface ridge is currently centered over the I-65 corridor this
morning.  To the east of the ridge, a light northeast wind has kept
temperatures from falling as quickly as we would normally see in a
radiational cooling situation.  However, as the ridge axis moves a
little more east this morning, we should see winds slacken off a bit
more allowing temperatures to fall.  In general, temperatures this
morning were in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.  The lower 20s were
confined to areas mainly north of the Bluegrass Parkway.  The latest
guidance suggests that temperatures will fall several more degrees
before sunrise with most locations dropping into the mid-upper 20s.
Needless to say, temperatures below 29 degrees for several hours
this morning will be particularly damaging to unprotected plants and
fruit trees across the region.  We will continue the freeze warning
through the morning hours.

For today, axis of high pressure at the surface will move eastward
and away from the Ohio Valley.  Other than some high clouds passing
through, we expect a mostly sunny, but a cooler than normal day.
Afternoon highs will range from the lower 50s in the north to the
mid-upper 50s across the south.  A few areas along the KY/TN border
region may get close to 60 this afternoon.

For Tonight, another mostly clear night is expected.  With the high
pressure ridge to the east of the region, we`ll see a more
pronounced southerly wind flow develop this evening and into the
overnight hours.  In fact, winds are likely to go more southwesterly
across the western areas late tonight.  This will likely result in a
gradient of temperature across the forecast area with lower 30s in
the east and middle 30s along and west of I-65.  In areas east of
I-65, there is a very good possibility for several hours of
temperature readings below 35 degrees.  In coordination with
surrounding offices, we will be going with a Frost Advisory for our
eastern half of the forecast area tonight.  Should later guidance
suggest cooler temperatures a bit more west, an additional expansion
to the west could be required in future forecasts.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Well...the long term is characterized by seasonal temperatures and 2
frontal systems.  No major hazardous weather systems in site for the
7 day period.  According to the GFS the long range extended has a
large ridge moving in which could bring the Ohio Valley back above
normal into spring like mercury readings.

Thu Ngt-Fri
The Nrn stream system coming out of the Show Me State and Hawkeye
State pivots across the Land of Lincoln and into the Nrn Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile the srn stream will pivot out of the Crimson State
and move into Ern KY. The models sure try to come together but never
quite seem to phase. Quite honestly, there is a distinct possibility
that the CWA might be gapped by the precip. Agree with day shift
long term fcstr that there is still a modicum of forcing to squeeze
out scattered light showers. Looking at the model soundings, there
is hint of some isolated elevated convection, but will limit the
mention of thunder and the QPF looks rather meager.  System will
move out on Good Friday and clouds will decrease and will move
eastbound.

Fri Ngt through Easter Sunday

Behind the front, shortwave upper ridging will keep areas nice and
dry over the weekend. Saturday will be on the cool side with N-NE
low-level flow, but rising heights will put Sunday back above
normal.

Sunday night and Monday...

A progressive southern stream system will bring the next round of
precip to the Ohio Valley around Monday, but confidence in the exact
timing is limited. The GFS and Euro are quite divergent next week on
the timing and extent of this system, so will only be making minor
tweaks to the previous fcst. The timing is too uncertain to put more
than a chance POP in any given time period.

Tuesday and beyond...

The eastern extent of the central US upper ridge diverges in the
long range models. For now looks like normal to above normal temps
looks prudent at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure will continue to work eastward across the region this
morning.  This will result in VFR conditions at all the terminals
for the upcoming TAF period.  Light and variable winds this morning
will give way to east to east-southeasterly winds by mid-morning and
into the afternoon hours with speeds of 8-10kts.  Some high level
cirrus will move through the region today, but will have no impact
on aviation at the terminals.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 160728
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
328 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Surface ridge is currently centered over the I-65 corridor this
morning.  To the east of the ridge, a light northeast wind has kept
temperatures from falling as quickly as we would normally see in a
radiational cooling situation.  However, as the ridge axis moves a
little more east this morning, we should see winds slacken off a bit
more allowing temperatures to fall.  In general, temperatures this
morning were in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.  The lower 20s were
confined to areas mainly north of the Bluegrass Parkway.  The latest
guidance suggests that temperatures will fall several more degrees
before sunrise with most locations dropping into the mid-upper 20s.
Needless to say, temperatures below 29 degrees for several hours
this morning will be particularly damaging to unprotected plants and
fruit trees across the region.  We will continue the freeze warning
through the morning hours.

For today, axis of high pressure at the surface will move eastward
and away from the Ohio Valley.  Other than some high clouds passing
through, we expect a mostly sunny, but a cooler than normal day.
Afternoon highs will range from the lower 50s in the north to the
mid-upper 50s across the south.  A few areas along the KY/TN border
region may get close to 60 this afternoon.

For Tonight, another mostly clear night is expected.  With the high
pressure ridge to the east of the region, we`ll see a more
pronounced southerly wind flow develop this evening and into the
overnight hours.  In fact, winds are likely to go more southwesterly
across the western areas late tonight.  This will likely result in a
gradient of temperature across the forecast area with lower 30s in
the east and middle 30s along and west of I-65.  In areas east of
I-65, there is a very good possibility for several hours of
temperature readings below 35 degrees.  In coordination with
surrounding offices, we will be going with a Frost Advisory for our
eastern half of the forecast area tonight.  Should later guidance
suggest cooler temperatures a bit more west, an additional expansion
to the west could be required in future forecasts.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Well...the long term is characterized by seasonal temperatures and 2
frontal systems.  No major hazardous weather systems in site for the
7 day period.  According to the GFS the long range extended has a
large ridge moving in which could bring the Ohio Valley back above
normal into spring like mercury readings.

Thu Ngt-Fri
The Nrn stream system coming out of the Show Me State and Hawkeye
State pivots across the Land of Lincoln and into the Nrn Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile the srn stream will pivot out of the Crimson State
and move into Ern KY. The models sure try to come together but never
quite seem to phase. Quite honestly, there is a distinct possibility
that the CWA might be gapped by the precip. Agree with day shift
long term fcstr that there is still a modicum of forcing to squeeze
out scattered light showers. Looking at the model soundings, there
is hint of some isolated elevated convection, but will limit the
mention of thunder and the QPF looks rather meager.  System will
move out on Good Friday and clouds will decrease and will move
eastbound.

Fri Ngt through Easter Sunday

Behind the front, shortwave upper ridging will keep areas nice and
dry over the weekend. Saturday will be on the cool side with N-NE
low-level flow, but rising heights will put Sunday back above
normal.

Sunday night and Monday...

A progressive southern stream system will bring the next round of
precip to the Ohio Valley around Monday, but confidence in the exact
timing is limited. The GFS and Euro are quite divergent next week on
the timing and extent of this system, so will only be making minor
tweaks to the previous fcst. The timing is too uncertain to put more
than a chance POP in any given time period.

Tuesday and beyond...

The eastern extent of the central US upper ridge diverges in the
long range models. For now looks like normal to above normal temps
looks prudent at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure will continue to spread across the region early this
morning.  Clear skies and generally light and variable winds are
expected for the remainder of the overnight hours.  VFR conditions
are expected early this morning and throughout the day Wednesday.
We will see a gradual shift in surface winds to the southeast during
the day with speeds of 7-9kts.  A few high clouds will push in from
the west later today, but will have no impact on aviation.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 160728
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
328 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Surface ridge is currently centered over the I-65 corridor this
morning.  To the east of the ridge, a light northeast wind has kept
temperatures from falling as quickly as we would normally see in a
radiational cooling situation.  However, as the ridge axis moves a
little more east this morning, we should see winds slacken off a bit
more allowing temperatures to fall.  In general, temperatures this
morning were in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.  The lower 20s were
confined to areas mainly north of the Bluegrass Parkway.  The latest
guidance suggests that temperatures will fall several more degrees
before sunrise with most locations dropping into the mid-upper 20s.
Needless to say, temperatures below 29 degrees for several hours
this morning will be particularly damaging to unprotected plants and
fruit trees across the region.  We will continue the freeze warning
through the morning hours.

For today, axis of high pressure at the surface will move eastward
and away from the Ohio Valley.  Other than some high clouds passing
through, we expect a mostly sunny, but a cooler than normal day.
Afternoon highs will range from the lower 50s in the north to the
mid-upper 50s across the south.  A few areas along the KY/TN border
region may get close to 60 this afternoon.

For Tonight, another mostly clear night is expected.  With the high
pressure ridge to the east of the region, we`ll see a more
pronounced southerly wind flow develop this evening and into the
overnight hours.  In fact, winds are likely to go more southwesterly
across the western areas late tonight.  This will likely result in a
gradient of temperature across the forecast area with lower 30s in
the east and middle 30s along and west of I-65.  In areas east of
I-65, there is a very good possibility for several hours of
temperature readings below 35 degrees.  In coordination with
surrounding offices, we will be going with a Frost Advisory for our
eastern half of the forecast area tonight.  Should later guidance
suggest cooler temperatures a bit more west, an additional expansion
to the west could be required in future forecasts.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Well...the long term is characterized by seasonal temperatures and 2
frontal systems.  No major hazardous weather systems in site for the
7 day period.  According to the GFS the long range extended has a
large ridge moving in which could bring the Ohio Valley back above
normal into spring like mercury readings.

Thu Ngt-Fri
The Nrn stream system coming out of the Show Me State and Hawkeye
State pivots across the Land of Lincoln and into the Nrn Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile the srn stream will pivot out of the Crimson State
and move into Ern KY. The models sure try to come together but never
quite seem to phase. Quite honestly, there is a distinct possibility
that the CWA might be gapped by the precip. Agree with day shift
long term fcstr that there is still a modicum of forcing to squeeze
out scattered light showers. Looking at the model soundings, there
is hint of some isolated elevated convection, but will limit the
mention of thunder and the QPF looks rather meager.  System will
move out on Good Friday and clouds will decrease and will move
eastbound.

Fri Ngt through Easter Sunday

Behind the front, shortwave upper ridging will keep areas nice and
dry over the weekend. Saturday will be on the cool side with N-NE
low-level flow, but rising heights will put Sunday back above
normal.

Sunday night and Monday...

A progressive southern stream system will bring the next round of
precip to the Ohio Valley around Monday, but confidence in the exact
timing is limited. The GFS and Euro are quite divergent next week on
the timing and extent of this system, so will only be making minor
tweaks to the previous fcst. The timing is too uncertain to put more
than a chance POP in any given time period.

Tuesday and beyond...

The eastern extent of the central US upper ridge diverges in the
long range models. For now looks like normal to above normal temps
looks prudent at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure will continue to spread across the region early this
morning.  Clear skies and generally light and variable winds are
expected for the remainder of the overnight hours.  VFR conditions
are expected early this morning and throughout the day Wednesday.
We will see a gradual shift in surface winds to the southeast during
the day with speeds of 7-9kts.  A few high clouds will push in from
the west later today, but will have no impact on aviation.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 160518
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
118 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Skies have cleared across the region. However a light northeasterly
wind flow is keeping temperatures from dropping too quickly at the
moment.  Readings from the Kentucky Mesonet were generally in the
upper 20s to the lower 30s.  Cold spots thus far were at Brandenburg
and Cynthiana with 27 degrees.  As winds slacken off later this
morning, we should see temperatures fall at a slightly quicker
rate.  A minor update to the gridded forecast was done to adjust
hourly T/Td to bring them in line with current observations.


Update issued at 945 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Most of the clouds have dissipated this evening and high pressure
has moved into the lower Ohio Valley this evening. Temperatures have
already dropped into the mid to upper 30s in many locations. Made
just some minor adjustments to the temperatures tonight. The coldest
temperatures look to be across portions of the Bluegrass tonight
where lows will be in the mid 20s. Record lows are not out of the
question tonight, with best shot for this possibly at Bowling Green.
The forecast and records are below.

                Forecast  Record/Year
Bowling Green      27       27/1928
Louisville         30       27/1875
Lexington          26       20/1875
Frankfort          26       25/1962

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

A hard freeze is expected tonight. A surface ridge now located along
the lower Missouri Valley will migrate east and will lie right over
the Commonwealth shortly after midnight. Skies will begin to clear
from west to east by late afternoon and will become almost
completely clear towards midnight.

Nearly ideal conditions for radiational cooling will allow lows to
fall into the mid 20s across many rural locations early tomorrow. In
more urbanized areas, expect lows in the upper 20s. Freezing
temperatures will linger well past dawn Wednesday.

The center of high pressure will move over New England Wednesday
afternoon, with an axis extending southwest over the Tennessee
Valley. Expect mostly clear skies Wednesday through early Thursday,
with light southeasterly winds. Wednesday will stay cool, with highs
only ranging from the mid to upper 50s. Lows Wednesday night will
fall well down into the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Thursday will be characterized by ridging over the southeast CONUS,
and developing low-level return flow as surface high pressure
retreats farther into New England. After a chilly (perhaps even
frosty) start, temps will recover to near seasonal normals.

Both northern and southern stream disturbances will move into the
eastern CONUS on Friday, but never quite seem to phase. ECMWF comes
closer to phasing the two streams than the GFS, but both point to
the distinct possibility that the Ohio Valley will be gapped by the
precip. Still looks like just enough forcing to squeeze out
scattered convection, but will limit the mention of thunder to a
slight chance and the QPF looks meager. Currently holding on to
slight chance POPs into Friday night, but with the models trending
toward a split between the northern and southern stream systems,
could easily end up dry.

Shortwave upper ridging will keep us dry over the weekend. Saturday
will be on the cool side with N-NE low-level flow, but rising
heights will put Sunday back above normal.

A progressive southern stream system will bring the next round of
precip to the Ohio Valley around Monday, but confidence in the exact
timing is limited. Rain is a pretty good bet somewhere between
Sunday night and Monday night, but timing is too uncertain to put
more than a chance POP in any given time period. Temps will trend
back on the high side of normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure will continue to spread across the region early this
morning.  Clear skies and generally light and variable winds are
expected for the remainder of the overnight hours.  VFR conditions
are expected early this morning and throughout the day Wednesday.
We will see a gradual shift in surface winds to the southeast during
the day with speeds of 7-9kts.  A few high clouds will push in from
the west later today, but will have no impact on aviation.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........MJ/EER
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 160518
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
118 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Skies have cleared across the region. However a light northeasterly
wind flow is keeping temperatures from dropping too quickly at the
moment.  Readings from the Kentucky Mesonet were generally in the
upper 20s to the lower 30s.  Cold spots thus far were at Brandenburg
and Cynthiana with 27 degrees.  As winds slacken off later this
morning, we should see temperatures fall at a slightly quicker
rate.  A minor update to the gridded forecast was done to adjust
hourly T/Td to bring them in line with current observations.


Update issued at 945 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Most of the clouds have dissipated this evening and high pressure
has moved into the lower Ohio Valley this evening. Temperatures have
already dropped into the mid to upper 30s in many locations. Made
just some minor adjustments to the temperatures tonight. The coldest
temperatures look to be across portions of the Bluegrass tonight
where lows will be in the mid 20s. Record lows are not out of the
question tonight, with best shot for this possibly at Bowling Green.
The forecast and records are below.

                Forecast  Record/Year
Bowling Green      27       27/1928
Louisville         30       27/1875
Lexington          26       20/1875
Frankfort          26       25/1962

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

A hard freeze is expected tonight. A surface ridge now located along
the lower Missouri Valley will migrate east and will lie right over
the Commonwealth shortly after midnight. Skies will begin to clear
from west to east by late afternoon and will become almost
completely clear towards midnight.

Nearly ideal conditions for radiational cooling will allow lows to
fall into the mid 20s across many rural locations early tomorrow. In
more urbanized areas, expect lows in the upper 20s. Freezing
temperatures will linger well past dawn Wednesday.

The center of high pressure will move over New England Wednesday
afternoon, with an axis extending southwest over the Tennessee
Valley. Expect mostly clear skies Wednesday through early Thursday,
with light southeasterly winds. Wednesday will stay cool, with highs
only ranging from the mid to upper 50s. Lows Wednesday night will
fall well down into the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Thursday will be characterized by ridging over the southeast CONUS,
and developing low-level return flow as surface high pressure
retreats farther into New England. After a chilly (perhaps even
frosty) start, temps will recover to near seasonal normals.

Both northern and southern stream disturbances will move into the
eastern CONUS on Friday, but never quite seem to phase. ECMWF comes
closer to phasing the two streams than the GFS, but both point to
the distinct possibility that the Ohio Valley will be gapped by the
precip. Still looks like just enough forcing to squeeze out
scattered convection, but will limit the mention of thunder to a
slight chance and the QPF looks meager. Currently holding on to
slight chance POPs into Friday night, but with the models trending
toward a split between the northern and southern stream systems,
could easily end up dry.

Shortwave upper ridging will keep us dry over the weekend. Saturday
will be on the cool side with N-NE low-level flow, but rising
heights will put Sunday back above normal.

A progressive southern stream system will bring the next round of
precip to the Ohio Valley around Monday, but confidence in the exact
timing is limited. Rain is a pretty good bet somewhere between
Sunday night and Monday night, but timing is too uncertain to put
more than a chance POP in any given time period. Temps will trend
back on the high side of normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure will continue to spread across the region early this
morning.  Clear skies and generally light and variable winds are
expected for the remainder of the overnight hours.  VFR conditions
are expected early this morning and throughout the day Wednesday.
We will see a gradual shift in surface winds to the southeast during
the day with speeds of 7-9kts.  A few high clouds will push in from
the west later today, but will have no impact on aviation.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........MJ/EER
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......MJ





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities