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000
FXUS63 KLMK 282319
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
719 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an unusually amplified
pattern for late July, with a large ridge over the western CONUS and
a downstream trough over the Ohio Valley.  This trough will remain
in place through the short term period, providing unseasonably cool
July temperatures.

A good amount of strato-cu continues to affect much of the region
this afternoon.  A PV anomaly diving through portions of central
Ohio may help provide just enough ascent to squeeze out a few
sprinkles or showers across north-central KY or southern IN this
afternoon, but think most will end up staying dry given rather
shallow moisture.  Highs have been slow to climb given the heavy
cloud cover as temperatures have remained mostly in the low to mid
70s.

The strato-cu should largely dissipate tonight, leaving mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies.  As high pressure noses in from the
northwest, winds should go rather light, setting the stage for a
good radiational cooling night.  A few record lows will be in
jeopardy tonight as temperatures fall into the low and mid 50s,
perhaps even some upper 40s possible in the typical cool spots.
Here are some of the record lows for July 29th:

Bowling Green: 52, 1925
Frankfort: 52, 2013
Louisville (SDF): 58, 1928
Lexington: 54, 2013

Tuesday will be similar to today as the upper trough remains in
place.  Cloud cover looks to be a bit less widespread than today,
thus think highs may be a few degrees warmer.  Highs will range from
the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

Tuesday night will once again be cool as a surface ridge remains
nearby and skies will once again be mainly clear to partly cloudy.
Therefore, lows will once again drop into the mid to upper 50s.
Here is a look at some of the record lows for July 30th that may
also be threatened:

Bowling Green: 53, 1965
Frankfort: 52, 2013
Louisville (SDF): 55, 1965
Lexington: 51, 1965

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Broad upper trof will cover the eastern CONUS for most of the coming
week, with a fairly weak surface pressure pattern in place under it.
Models try to spit out QPF just about every afternoon, but this has
been overdone for much of the summer and extended GFS MOS never
shows more than slight chance. With most of the forcing remaining to
our north as vort lobes pinwheel around the James Bay low, will keep
the forecast dry through Thursday. It appears our luck may run out
Friday into the weekend as the upper trof sharpens a bit, but even
that warrants no more than a 20-30 POP in the absence of any real
surface boundary, and with the Gulf never really opening up.

Temps will run below normal through the period. Wednesday max temps
are close to MOS consensus, while we will lean on the low end of
guidance for Wednesday night as strong radiational cooling will let
some of the typical cool spots drop into the mid 50s. Look for a
gradual recovery in the latter part of the week, but still below
climo and slightly below guidance, with dewpoints staying in the
comfortable range without any significant return flow to tap the
Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 719 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

High pressure building in from the Plains to the Ohio Valley will
give us light northwest breezes and VFR conditions through the TAF
period. Some patchy fog will be possible around sunrise but should
be southeast of the airports.  Of the three terminals, LEX would
stand the best chance of seeing any light fog.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 282319
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
719 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an unusually amplified
pattern for late July, with a large ridge over the western CONUS and
a downstream trough over the Ohio Valley.  This trough will remain
in place through the short term period, providing unseasonably cool
July temperatures.

A good amount of strato-cu continues to affect much of the region
this afternoon.  A PV anomaly diving through portions of central
Ohio may help provide just enough ascent to squeeze out a few
sprinkles or showers across north-central KY or southern IN this
afternoon, but think most will end up staying dry given rather
shallow moisture.  Highs have been slow to climb given the heavy
cloud cover as temperatures have remained mostly in the low to mid
70s.

The strato-cu should largely dissipate tonight, leaving mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies.  As high pressure noses in from the
northwest, winds should go rather light, setting the stage for a
good radiational cooling night.  A few record lows will be in
jeopardy tonight as temperatures fall into the low and mid 50s,
perhaps even some upper 40s possible in the typical cool spots.
Here are some of the record lows for July 29th:

Bowling Green: 52, 1925
Frankfort: 52, 2013
Louisville (SDF): 58, 1928
Lexington: 54, 2013

Tuesday will be similar to today as the upper trough remains in
place.  Cloud cover looks to be a bit less widespread than today,
thus think highs may be a few degrees warmer.  Highs will range from
the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

Tuesday night will once again be cool as a surface ridge remains
nearby and skies will once again be mainly clear to partly cloudy.
Therefore, lows will once again drop into the mid to upper 50s.
Here is a look at some of the record lows for July 30th that may
also be threatened:

Bowling Green: 53, 1965
Frankfort: 52, 2013
Louisville (SDF): 55, 1965
Lexington: 51, 1965

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Broad upper trof will cover the eastern CONUS for most of the coming
week, with a fairly weak surface pressure pattern in place under it.
Models try to spit out QPF just about every afternoon, but this has
been overdone for much of the summer and extended GFS MOS never
shows more than slight chance. With most of the forcing remaining to
our north as vort lobes pinwheel around the James Bay low, will keep
the forecast dry through Thursday. It appears our luck may run out
Friday into the weekend as the upper trof sharpens a bit, but even
that warrants no more than a 20-30 POP in the absence of any real
surface boundary, and with the Gulf never really opening up.

Temps will run below normal through the period. Wednesday max temps
are close to MOS consensus, while we will lean on the low end of
guidance for Wednesday night as strong radiational cooling will let
some of the typical cool spots drop into the mid 50s. Look for a
gradual recovery in the latter part of the week, but still below
climo and slightly below guidance, with dewpoints staying in the
comfortable range without any significant return flow to tap the
Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 719 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

High pressure building in from the Plains to the Ohio Valley will
give us light northwest breezes and VFR conditions through the TAF
period. Some patchy fog will be possible around sunrise but should
be southeast of the airports.  Of the three terminals, LEX would
stand the best chance of seeing any light fog.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281855
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
255 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an unusually amplified
pattern for late July, with a large ridge over the western CONUS and
a downstream trough over the Ohio Valley.  This trough will remain
in place through the short term period, providing unseasonably cool
July temperatures.

A good amount of strato-cu continues to affect much of the region
this afternoon.  A PV anomaly diving through portions of central
Ohio may help provide just enough ascent to squeeze out a few
sprinkles or showers across north-central KY or southern IN this
afternoon, but think most will end up staying dry given rather
shallow moisture.  Highs have been slow to climb given the heavy
cloud cover as temperatures have remained mostly in the low to mid
70s.

The strato-cu should largely dissipate tonight, leaving mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies.  As high pressure noses in from the
northwest, winds should go rather light, setting the stage for a
good radiational cooling night.  A few record lows will be in
jeopardy tonight as temperatures fall into the low and mid 50s,
perhaps even some upper 40s possible in the typical cool spots.
Here are some of the record lows for July 29th:

Bowling Green: 52, 1925
Frankfort: 52, 2013
Louisville (SDF): 58, 1928
Lexington: 54, 2013

Tuesday will be similar to today as the upper trough remains in
place.  Cloud cover looks to be a bit less widespread than today,
thus think highs may be a few degrees warmer.  Highs will range from
the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

Tuesday night will once again be cool as a surface ridge remains
nearby and skies will once again be mainly clear to partly cloudy.
Therefore, lows will once again drop into the mid to upper 50s.
Here is a look at some of the record lows for July 30th that may
also be threatened:

Bowling Green: 53, 1965
Frankfort: 52, 2013
Louisville (SDF): 55, 1965
Lexington: 51, 1965

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Broad upper trof will cover the eastern CONUS for most of the coming
week, with a fairly weak surface pressure pattern in place under it.
Models try to spit out QPF just about every afternoon, but this has
been overdone for much of the summer and extended GFS MOS never
shows more than slight chance. With most of the forcing remaining to
our north as vort lobes pinwheel around the James Bay low, will keep
the forecast dry through Thursday. It appears our luck may run out
Friday into the weekend as the upper trof sharpens a bit, but even
that warrants no more than a 20-30 POP in the absence of any real
surface boundary, and with the Gulf never really opening up.

Temps will run below normal through the period. Wednesday max temps
are close to MOS consensus, while we will lean on the low end of
guidance for Wednesday night as strong radiational cooling will let
some of the typical cool spots drop into the mid 50s. Look for a
gradual recovery in the latter part of the week, but still below
climo and slightly below guidance, with dewpoints staying in the
comfortable range without any significant return flow to tap the
Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the valid TAF period.
MVFR strato-cu from this morning has recently lifted to borderline
VFR thresholds and should remain there for the rest of the
afternoon. Winds will be out of the NNW around 10 knots, with some
gusts into the teens possible.

For tonight, expect skies to go mainly clear to partly cloudy at
KSDF/KBWG, with KLEX having the best chance of retaining a ceiling.
This ceiling may dip to around FL025, but will only leave SCT for
now.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the period,
with NNW winds at 5-10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281721
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Much quieter this morning and this benign weather is expected to
prevail in the short-term period. Persistence in the models calls
for a chance for light rain showers tomorrow, primarily in the
Bluegrass region and southeastern IN, although a stray shower or
some sprinkles could fall elsewhere, with the focus remaining on
locations east of the I-65 corridor. The Ohio Valley will be on the
backside of the trough tomorrow, leaving the region under NW flow at
the surface and aloft. The upper jet will be digging in and a vort
max is expected to rotate through southern IN and central KY,
providing a lifting source. Additionally, steep low-level lapse
rates and PWATs of around an inch will provide scattered to broken
clouds across much of the forecast area. While the PWATs don`t seem
terribly impressive, what is to note is that the bulk of the
moisture is confined to the lower levels. Once diurnal heating is
lost tonight, expect any showers that had developed to wane, along
with some of the cloud cover. By Tuesday, this forecast area will
have lost some of that support and moisture, so currently
anticipating that precip should remain north of the area,
particularly as surface high pressure attempts to take control from
the west.

Unseasonably cool temperatures and much lower dewpoints are already
advecting in behind the fropa. The airmass change of Canadian
origin, along with the cloud cover, will keep highs today from
reaching the 80 degree mark in southern IN and northern KY. Southern
KY will reach right around 80 degrees. Tonight, lows will be in the
mid 50s with assistance from radiational cooling, if the clouds can
clear out enough. Tuesday will be cooler across the south and about
the same for the north, ranging from the mid to upper 70s.

So how do these forecast temperatures compare to records? Well, FFT
looks to be the only climate site today to have the potential to
come close to their min high temperature of 74 degrees, set last
year. For tonight, SDF and possibly LEX could come close to their
record lows of 58 and 54 degrees, respectively. Tuesday could be a
bit more difficult, with FFT being the only one in range of 74
degrees set in 1994 and previous years.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

At the beginning of the long term period, a highly amplified pattern
will exist with ridging in the western CONUS and troughing in the
east.  We`ll be under the influence of the trough providing for
unseasonably cool temps.  Will keep a dry, mostly sunny forecast for
mid week since most models are still projecting this but it should
be noted that the latest NAM12 run is a little more aggressive
dropping shortwave energy south in the trough and giving light
precip chances over our southern Indiana/northern Kentucky counties
both Wed and Thurs.  Wed morning will be the coolest morning in the
long term period with lows in the 50s over most locations and low
60s in the Louisville Metro.  Valley locations over east central KY
will see temps bottom out in the low 50s even!

For Friday through the weekend, long range models have come into
agreement that the upper trough will narrow and sharpen on its
southern most extent but will not become a closed low over the
Midwest.  On and off scattered rain chances still look on track
Fri-Sun as multiple vort lobes dive south into the Ohio Valley with
the best activity most likely during the afternoon/evening hours
each day.  This activity will start to decrease on Monday as the
upper trough moves east of our area.

Temperatures throughout the long term period look to be pretty
steady state with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.  Clouds and precip chances may make temp
forecasting a bit more challenging for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the valid TAF period.
MVFR strato-cu from this morning has recently lifted to borderline
VFR thresholds and should remain there for the rest of the
afternoon. Winds will be out of the NNW around 10 knots, with some
gusts into the teens possible.

For tonight, expect skies to go mainly clear to partly cloudy at
KSDF/KBWG, with KLEX having the best chance of retaining a ceiling.
This ceiling may dip to around FL025, but will only leave SCT for
now.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the period,
with NNW winds at 5-10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281102
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
702 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Much quieter this morning and this benign weather is expected to
prevail in the short-term period. Persistence in the models calls
for a chance for light rain showers tomorrow, primarily in the
Bluegrass region and southeastern IN, although a stray shower or
some sprinkles could fall elsewhere, with the focus remaining on
locations east of the I-65 corridor. The Ohio Valley will be on the
backside of the trough tomorrow, leaving the region under NW flow at
the surface and aloft. The upper jet will be digging in and a vort
max is expected to rotate through southern IN and central KY,
providing a lifting source. Additionally, steep low-level lapse
rates and PWATs of around an inch will provide scattered to broken
clouds across much of the forecast area. While the PWATs don`t seem
terribly impressive, what is to note is that the bulk of the
moisture is confined to the lower levels. Once diurnal heating is
lost tonight, expect any showers that had developed to wane, along
with some of the cloud cover. By Tuesday, this forecast area will
have lost some of that support and moisture, so currently
anticipating that precip should remain north of the area,
particularly as surface high pressure attempts to take control from
the west.

Unseasonably cool temperatures and much lower dewpoints are already
advecting in behind the fropa. The airmass change of Canadian
origin, along with the cloud cover, will keep highs today from
reaching the 80 degree mark in southern IN and northern KY. Southern
KY will reach right around 80 degrees. Tonight, lows will be in the
mid 50s with assistance from radiational cooling, if the clouds can
clear out enough. Tuesday will be cooler across the south and about
the same for the north, ranging from the mid to upper 70s.

So how do these forecast temperatures compare to records? Well, FFT
looks to be the only climate site today to have the potential to
come close to their min high temperature of 74 degrees, set last
year. For tonight, SDF and possibly LEX could come close to their
record lows of 58 and 54 degrees, respectively. Tuesday could be a
bit more difficult, with FFT being the only one in range of 74
degrees set in 1994 and previous years.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

At the beginning of the long term period, a highly amplified pattern
will exist with ridging in the western CONUS and troughing in the
east.  We`ll be under the influence of the trough providing for
unseasonably cool temps.  Will keep a dry, mostly sunny forecast for
mid week since most models are still projecting this but it should
be noted that the latest NAM12 run is a little more aggressive
dropping shortwave energy south in the trough and giving light
precip chances over our southern Indiana/northern Kentucky counties
both Wed and Thurs.  Wed morning will be the coolest morning in the
long term period with lows in the 50s over most locations and low
60s in the Louisville Metro.  Valley locations over east central KY
will see temps bottom out in the low 50s even!

For Friday through the weekend, long range models have come into
agreement that the upper trough will narrow and sharpen on its
southern most extent but will not become a closed low over the
Midwest.  On and off scattered rain chances still look on track
Fri-Sun as multiple vort lobes dive south into the Ohio Valley with
the best activity most likely during the afternoon/evening hours
each day.  This activity will start to decrease on Monday as the
upper trough moves east of our area.

Temperatures throughout the long term period look to be pretty
steady state with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.  Clouds and precip chances may make temp
forecasting a bit more challenging for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

A stratus deck as already begun to build into central IN this
morning, looking to overtake the Bluegrass region within the next
couple of hours. As an upper-level disturbance rotates through the
Ohio Valley, a chance exists for light showers to develop across
portions of the Bluegrass region with the potential for sprinkles at
SDF and possibly BWG. Conditionally, much of the day should be VFR
dominated but could teeter into MVFR - either earlier in the day
before the incoming cloud bases have had a chance to rise and/or
with any potential shower activity. BWG will have the best chance of
staying in the VFR category throughout the day.

NW winds will be on the increase after diurnal heating has begun and
with the incoming disturbance. These winds could be gusty at times
with winds upstream already gusting to around 15 to 20 knots this
morning. Once the sun sets this evening, winds aren`t expected to go
calm but will lighten, remaining primarily out of the NW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281102
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
702 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Much quieter this morning and this benign weather is expected to
prevail in the short-term period. Persistence in the models calls
for a chance for light rain showers tomorrow, primarily in the
Bluegrass region and southeastern IN, although a stray shower or
some sprinkles could fall elsewhere, with the focus remaining on
locations east of the I-65 corridor. The Ohio Valley will be on the
backside of the trough tomorrow, leaving the region under NW flow at
the surface and aloft. The upper jet will be digging in and a vort
max is expected to rotate through southern IN and central KY,
providing a lifting source. Additionally, steep low-level lapse
rates and PWATs of around an inch will provide scattered to broken
clouds across much of the forecast area. While the PWATs don`t seem
terribly impressive, what is to note is that the bulk of the
moisture is confined to the lower levels. Once diurnal heating is
lost tonight, expect any showers that had developed to wane, along
with some of the cloud cover. By Tuesday, this forecast area will
have lost some of that support and moisture, so currently
anticipating that precip should remain north of the area,
particularly as surface high pressure attempts to take control from
the west.

Unseasonably cool temperatures and much lower dewpoints are already
advecting in behind the fropa. The airmass change of Canadian
origin, along with the cloud cover, will keep highs today from
reaching the 80 degree mark in southern IN and northern KY. Southern
KY will reach right around 80 degrees. Tonight, lows will be in the
mid 50s with assistance from radiational cooling, if the clouds can
clear out enough. Tuesday will be cooler across the south and about
the same for the north, ranging from the mid to upper 70s.

So how do these forecast temperatures compare to records? Well, FFT
looks to be the only climate site today to have the potential to
come close to their min high temperature of 74 degrees, set last
year. For tonight, SDF and possibly LEX could come close to their
record lows of 58 and 54 degrees, respectively. Tuesday could be a
bit more difficult, with FFT being the only one in range of 74
degrees set in 1994 and previous years.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

At the beginning of the long term period, a highly amplified pattern
will exist with ridging in the western CONUS and troughing in the
east.  We`ll be under the influence of the trough providing for
unseasonably cool temps.  Will keep a dry, mostly sunny forecast for
mid week since most models are still projecting this but it should
be noted that the latest NAM12 run is a little more aggressive
dropping shortwave energy south in the trough and giving light
precip chances over our southern Indiana/northern Kentucky counties
both Wed and Thurs.  Wed morning will be the coolest morning in the
long term period with lows in the 50s over most locations and low
60s in the Louisville Metro.  Valley locations over east central KY
will see temps bottom out in the low 50s even!

For Friday through the weekend, long range models have come into
agreement that the upper trough will narrow and sharpen on its
southern most extent but will not become a closed low over the
Midwest.  On and off scattered rain chances still look on track
Fri-Sun as multiple vort lobes dive south into the Ohio Valley with
the best activity most likely during the afternoon/evening hours
each day.  This activity will start to decrease on Monday as the
upper trough moves east of our area.

Temperatures throughout the long term period look to be pretty
steady state with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.  Clouds and precip chances may make temp
forecasting a bit more challenging for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

A stratus deck as already begun to build into central IN this
morning, looking to overtake the Bluegrass region within the next
couple of hours. As an upper-level disturbance rotates through the
Ohio Valley, a chance exists for light showers to develop across
portions of the Bluegrass region with the potential for sprinkles at
SDF and possibly BWG. Conditionally, much of the day should be VFR
dominated but could teeter into MVFR - either earlier in the day
before the incoming cloud bases have had a chance to rise and/or
with any potential shower activity. BWG will have the best chance of
staying in the VFR category throughout the day.

NW winds will be on the increase after diurnal heating has begun and
with the incoming disturbance. These winds could be gusty at times
with winds upstream already gusting to around 15 to 20 knots this
morning. Once the sun sets this evening, winds aren`t expected to go
calm but will lighten, remaining primarily out of the NW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280739
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
339 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Much quieter this morning and this benign weather is expected to
prevail in the short-term period. Persistence in the models calls
for a chance for light rain showers tomorrow, primarily in the
Bluegrass region and southeastern IN, although a stray shower or
some sprinkles could fall elsewhere, with the focus remaining on
locations east of the I-65 corridor. The Ohio Valley will be on the
backside of the trough tomorrow, leaving the region under NW flow at
the surface and aloft. The upper jet will be digging in and a vort
max is expected to rotate through southern IN and central KY,
providing a lifting source. Additionally, steep low-level lapse
rates and PWATs of around an inch will provide scattered to broken
clouds across much of the forecast area. While the PWATs don`t seem
terribly impressive, what is to note is that the bulk of the
moisture is confined to the lower levels. Once diurnal heating is
lost tonight, expect any showers that had developed to wane, along
with some of the cloud cover. By Tuesday, this forecast area will
have lost some of that support and moisture, so currently
anticipating that precip should remain north of the area,
particularly as surface high pressure attempts to take control from
the west.

Unseasonably cool temperatures and much lower dewpoints are already
advecting in behind the fropa. The airmass change of Canadian
origin, along with the cloud cover, will keep highs today from
reaching the 80 degree mark in southern IN and northern KY. Southern
KY will reach right around 80 degrees. Tonight, lows will be in the
mid 50s with assistance from radiational cooling, if the clouds can
clear out enough. Tuesday will be cooler across the south and about
the same for the north, ranging from the mid to upper 70s.

So how do these forecast temperatures compare to records? Well, FFT
looks to be the only climate site today to have the potential to
come close to their min high temperature of 74 degrees, set last
year. For tonight, SDF and possibly LEX could come close to their
record lows of 58 and 54 degrees, respectively. Tuesday could be a
bit more difficult, with FFT being the only one in range of 74
degrees set in 1994 and previous years.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

At the beginning of the long term period, a highly amplified pattern
will exist with ridging in the western CONUS and troughing in the
east.  We`ll be under the influence of the trough providing for
unseasonably cool temps.  Will keep a dry, mostly sunny forecast for
mid week since most models are still projecting this but it should
be noted that the latest NAM12 run is a little more aggressive
dropping shortwave energy south in the trough and giving light
precip chances over our southern Indiana/northern Kentucky counties
both Wed and Thurs.  Wed morning will be the coolest morning in the
long term period with lows in the 50s over most locations and low
60s in the Louisville Metro.  Valley locations over east central KY
will see temps bottom out in the low 50s even!

For Friday through the weekend, long range models have come into
agreement that the upper trough will narrow and sharpen on its
southern most extent but will not become a closed low over the
Midwest.  On and off scattered rain chances still look on track
Fri-Sun as multiple vort lobes dive south into the Ohio Valley with
the best activity most likely during the afternoon/evening hours
each day.  This activity will start to decrease on Monday as the
upper trough moves east of our area.

Temperatures throughout the long term period look to be pretty
steady state with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.  Clouds and precip chances may make temp
forecasting a bit more challenging for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR will be the predominant category through much of this TAF
period, with potentially MVFR at LEX over the next few hours. Winds
are expected to be right around or slightly above 5 knots throughout
the night, despite some decoupling due to much cooler, drier air
advecting in behind the exiting cold front. Just a few passing
clouds can be expected overnight, which, in addition to the CAA,
will allow for plenty of radiational cooling. Bringing this all
together, the reason for the potential of MVFR at LEX is due to
enough surface moisture to allow for a low-level deck to build in
but the winds should stay up just enough to mitigate a more
significant impact. SDF could see some haze by sunrise but isn`t
expected to drop below VFR. BWG did not receive as much rain as the
other two terminals, hindering much more than haze there as well.
However, should the winds settle down over the next couple of hours,
will need to monitor and update as necessary.

For Monday, mostly clear skies will prevail in the morning before a
CU field develops in the afternoon. There is a chance for some light
rain to fall across portions of northern and eastern KY with LEX
having the higher potential of the three terminals, although SDF
can`t rule it out completely. Given the uncertainty, and that the
impacts are expected to remain relatively minimal to aviation
interests, have negated mention in this forecast update.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280525
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
125 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong digging trough
across the Midwest and Great Lakes, with an upstream ridge
amplifying across the western CONUS.  This trough will dig into the
Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow, allowing for drier weather and
much cooler temperatures to filter into the region.

Before the cooler and drier air works in, we must first deal with a
conditional severe weather threat this afternoon into early this
evening across south-central KY.  A volatile airmass has developed
in this region, with MLCAPEs of 3000+ J/kg according to the latest
SPC mesoanalysis.  However, very warm mid-level air has also
advected into this region (700mb temps around 11C) which is putting
the lid on convection thus far.  Latest satellite imagery shows a
boundary pushing into northern KY as of this writing.  This boundary
is only weakly convergent, thus there remains some uncertainty as to
whether additional convection will be able to push through the cap
and develop along it.  Latest hi-res guidance continues to support
development from 21-22Z along this boundary across southern KY, so
think it is too early to let our guard down.  If scattered
convection is able to develop, effective shear of 40-50 knots will
likely support quick supercell development capable of large hail and
damaging winds.  A conditional tornado threat will be possible with
any storm that can develop given the low-level speed shear, but
veered surface flow will limit low-level hodograph length.

The synoptic cold front located well north across central Illinois
will push through overnight, bringing cooler and drier conditions to
the region.  Overnight lows tonight will fall into the low and mid
60s, with falling dewpoints into the lower 60s.

The upper-level trough will dig into the region Monday afternoon.
This cold core aloft may be enough to induce some isolated
sprinkles/light showers over the Northern Bluegrass region of
Kentucky.  Otherwise, it will be a mainly dry day with much cooler
temperatures as highs will struggle to get out of the upper 70s.

Monday night will be mainly clear as a surface ridge builds in from
the northwest.  With generally light winds, it will be an
unseasonably cool night as temperatures dip into the low to mid
50s!  Some of these values may threaten record lows, so stay tuned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern is expected to persist across
North America this week with a deep trough in the east with a
corresponding upper level ridge out in the west. With the Ohio
Valley being under the influence of the upper trough, we will see
much below normal temperatures for the upcoming work week.

The latest deterministic and ensemble guidance is similar to the
previous 27/00Z guidance which leads to increased forecaster
confidence...especially in the Tuesday through Thursday range.
Surface high pressure will drift across the region at the beginning
of the forecast period.  This will lead to dry conditions with
mainly sunny days and mainly clear nights.  Could get very close to
record lows in some spots Tuesday morning.  In addition, we could
also see some record cold highs on Tuesday afternoon as readings
will only warm into the lower-middle 70s.  We still expect a warm up
from Wednesday into Thursday as temperatures look to warm into the
upper 70s to the lower 80s in the north with middle 80s in the
south.  Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s.

By Friday and into the weekend, the multi-model consensus continues
to agree that the upper level trough over the east will deepen
slightly as several vorticity lobes drop and rotate around the base
of the trough.  As this these lobes rotate through, they may induce
a cut off low to develop across the Ohio Valley.  The 12Z
deterministic Euro solution is not as deep as in previous runs.
However, the main story here will be that somewhat unsettled
conditions are expected to be in place from Friday through Sunday.
Overall, it does not look to be a washout, but scattered diurnally
driven convection looks likely.  Highs through this time fame look
to be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR will be the predominant category through much of this TAF
period, with potentially MVFR at LEX over the next few hours. Winds
are expected to be right around or slightly above 5 knots throughout
the night, despite some decoupling due to much cooler, drier air
advecting in behind the exiting cold front. Just a few passing
clouds can be expected overnight, which, in addition to the CAA,
will allow for plenty of radiational cooling. Bringing this all
together, the reason for the potential of MVFR at LEX is due to
enough surface moisture to allow for a low-level deck to build in
but the winds should stay up just enough to mitigate a more
significant impact. SDF could see some haze by sunrise but isn`t
expected to drop below VFR. BWG did not receive as much rain as the
other two terminals, hindering much more than haze there as well.
However, should the winds settle down over the next couple of hours,
will need to monitor and update as necessary.

For Monday, mostly clear skies will prevail in the morning before a
CU field develops in the afternoon. There is a chance for some light
rain to fall across portions of northern and eastern KY with LEX
having the higher potential of the three terminals, although SDF
can`t rule it out completely. Given the uncertainty, and that the
impacts are expected to remain relatively minimal to aviation
interests, have negated mention in this forecast update.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280525
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
125 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong digging trough
across the Midwest and Great Lakes, with an upstream ridge
amplifying across the western CONUS.  This trough will dig into the
Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow, allowing for drier weather and
much cooler temperatures to filter into the region.

Before the cooler and drier air works in, we must first deal with a
conditional severe weather threat this afternoon into early this
evening across south-central KY.  A volatile airmass has developed
in this region, with MLCAPEs of 3000+ J/kg according to the latest
SPC mesoanalysis.  However, very warm mid-level air has also
advected into this region (700mb temps around 11C) which is putting
the lid on convection thus far.  Latest satellite imagery shows a
boundary pushing into northern KY as of this writing.  This boundary
is only weakly convergent, thus there remains some uncertainty as to
whether additional convection will be able to push through the cap
and develop along it.  Latest hi-res guidance continues to support
development from 21-22Z along this boundary across southern KY, so
think it is too early to let our guard down.  If scattered
convection is able to develop, effective shear of 40-50 knots will
likely support quick supercell development capable of large hail and
damaging winds.  A conditional tornado threat will be possible with
any storm that can develop given the low-level speed shear, but
veered surface flow will limit low-level hodograph length.

The synoptic cold front located well north across central Illinois
will push through overnight, bringing cooler and drier conditions to
the region.  Overnight lows tonight will fall into the low and mid
60s, with falling dewpoints into the lower 60s.

The upper-level trough will dig into the region Monday afternoon.
This cold core aloft may be enough to induce some isolated
sprinkles/light showers over the Northern Bluegrass region of
Kentucky.  Otherwise, it will be a mainly dry day with much cooler
temperatures as highs will struggle to get out of the upper 70s.

Monday night will be mainly clear as a surface ridge builds in from
the northwest.  With generally light winds, it will be an
unseasonably cool night as temperatures dip into the low to mid
50s!  Some of these values may threaten record lows, so stay tuned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern is expected to persist across
North America this week with a deep trough in the east with a
corresponding upper level ridge out in the west. With the Ohio
Valley being under the influence of the upper trough, we will see
much below normal temperatures for the upcoming work week.

The latest deterministic and ensemble guidance is similar to the
previous 27/00Z guidance which leads to increased forecaster
confidence...especially in the Tuesday through Thursday range.
Surface high pressure will drift across the region at the beginning
of the forecast period.  This will lead to dry conditions with
mainly sunny days and mainly clear nights.  Could get very close to
record lows in some spots Tuesday morning.  In addition, we could
also see some record cold highs on Tuesday afternoon as readings
will only warm into the lower-middle 70s.  We still expect a warm up
from Wednesday into Thursday as temperatures look to warm into the
upper 70s to the lower 80s in the north with middle 80s in the
south.  Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s.

By Friday and into the weekend, the multi-model consensus continues
to agree that the upper level trough over the east will deepen
slightly as several vorticity lobes drop and rotate around the base
of the trough.  As this these lobes rotate through, they may induce
a cut off low to develop across the Ohio Valley.  The 12Z
deterministic Euro solution is not as deep as in previous runs.
However, the main story here will be that somewhat unsettled
conditions are expected to be in place from Friday through Sunday.
Overall, it does not look to be a washout, but scattered diurnally
driven convection looks likely.  Highs through this time fame look
to be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

VFR will be the predominant category through much of this TAF
period, with potentially MVFR at LEX over the next few hours. Winds
are expected to be right around or slightly above 5 knots throughout
the night, despite some decoupling due to much cooler, drier air
advecting in behind the exiting cold front. Just a few passing
clouds can be expected overnight, which, in addition to the CAA,
will allow for plenty of radiational cooling. Bringing this all
together, the reason for the potential of MVFR at LEX is due to
enough surface moisture to allow for a low-level deck to build in
but the winds should stay up just enough to mitigate a more
significant impact. SDF could see some haze by sunrise but isn`t
expected to drop below VFR. BWG did not receive as much rain as the
other two terminals, hindering much more than haze there as well.
However, should the winds settle down over the next couple of hours,
will need to monitor and update as necessary.

For Monday, mostly clear skies will prevail in the morning before a
CU field develops in the afternoon. There is a chance for some light
rain to fall across portions of northern and eastern KY with LEX
having the higher potential of the three terminals, although SDF
can`t rule it out completely. Given the uncertainty, and that the
impacts are expected to remain relatively minimal to aviation
interests, have negated mention in this forecast update.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........lg







000
FXUS63 KLMK 272234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
634 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Afternoon thunderstorms have faded and pushed off to the SE. However
an unstable air mass remains, with a couple of boundaries still in
play and storms trying to fire along them. First boundary is roughly
along the Cumberland Parkway, left over from earlier storms. The
other is the surface front diving SE across southern Indiana. A
strong cap is in place with 700mb temps at 11-12C, and that is
working against storm intensification. However, steep lapse rates
above and below that cap mean that anything breaking through could
easily go severe, albeit more of a wind risk than a tornado risk.
Given that and coordination with SPC and JKL, will let the Tornado
Watch ride, most likely until its 00Z expiration.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Conditional severe threat continues across south-central KY this
afternoon into early this evening...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong digging trough
across the Midwest and Great Lakes, with an upstream ridge
amplifying across the western CONUS.  This trough will dig into the
Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow, allowing for drier weather and
much cooler temperatures to filter into the region.

Before the cooler and drier air works in, we must first deal with a
conditional severe weather threat this afternoon into early this
evening across south-central KY.  A volatile airmass has developed
in this region, with MLCAPEs of 3000+ J/kg according to the latest
SPC mesoanalysis.  However, very warm mid-level air has also
advected into this region (700mb temps around 11C) which is putting
the lid on convection thus far.  Latest satellite imagery shows a
boundary pushing into northern KY as of this writing.  This boundary
is only weakly convergent, thus there remains some uncertainty as to
whether additional convection will be able to push through the cap
and develop along it.  Latest hi-res guidance continues to support
development from 21-22Z along this boundary across southern KY, so
think it is too early to let our guard down.  If scattered
convection is able to develop, effective shear of 40-50 knots will
likely support quick supercell development capable of large hail and
damaging winds.  A conditional tornado threat will be possible with
any storm that can develop given the low-level speed shear, but
veered surface flow will limit low-level hodograph length.

The synoptic cold front located well north across central Illinois
will push through overnight, bringing cooler and drier conditions to
the region.  Overnight lows tonight will fall into the low and mid
60s, with falling dewpoints into the lower 60s.

The upper-level trough will dig into the region Monday afternoon.
This cold core aloft may be enough to induce some isolated
sprinkles/light showers over the Northern Bluegrass region of
Kentucky.  Otherwise, it will be a mainly dry day with much cooler
temperatures as highs will struggle to get out of the upper 70s.

Monday night will be mainly clear as a surface ridge builds in from
the northwest.  With generally light winds, it will be an
unseasonably cool night as temperatures dip into the low to mid
50s!  Some of these values may threaten record lows, so stay tuned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern is expected to persist across
North America this week with a deep trough in the east with a
corresponding upper level ridge out in the west. With the Ohio
Valley being under the influence of the upper trough, we will see
much below normal temperatures for the upcoming work week.

The latest deterministic and ensemble guidance is similar to the
previous 27/00Z guidance which leads to increased forecaster
confidence...especially in the Tuesday through Thursday range.
Surface high pressure will drift across the region at the beginning
of the forecast period.  This will lead to dry conditions with
mainly sunny days and mainly clear nights.  Could get very close to
record lows in some spots Tuesday morning.  In addition, we could
also see some record cold highs on Tuesday afternoon as readings
will only warm into the lower-middle 70s.  We still expect a warm up
from Wednesday into Thursday as temperatures look to warm into the
upper 70s to the lower 80s in the north with middle 80s in the
south.  Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s.

By Friday and into the weekend, the multi-model consensus continues
to agree that the upper level trough over the east will deepen
slightly as several vorticity lobes drop and rotate around the base
of the trough.  As this these lobes rotate through, they may induce
a cut off low to develop across the Ohio Valley.  The 12Z
deterministic Euro solution is not as deep as in previous runs.
However, the main story here will be that somewhat unsettled
conditions are expected to be in place from Friday through Sunday.
Overall, it does not look to be a washout, but scattered diurnally
driven convection looks likely.  Highs through this time fame look
to be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Unusually dynamic cold front for mid-July approaching the Ohio
Valley, and will push SE across Kentucky this evening. Will
initialize with gusty west winds and VFR conditions, with SCT-BKN cu
around 4K feet. Broken line of T-storms across Indiana is struggling
to hold together on its south end. While there is an outside chance
for a thunderstorm at any of the terminals this evening,
probabilities are low enough that the worst case would be including
VCTS at one or more sites. That will be a last-minute call, and most
likely would affect LEX, or in the very near-term, BWG.

Winds come around to NW overnight, with enough of a gradient to keep
speeds up at 7-9 kt. Will pick up winds to 10-12 kt by midday Monday
with mixing, and VFR conditions with only fair-weather cu.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......RAS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
634 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Afternoon thunderstorms have faded and pushed off to the SE. However
an unstable air mass remains, with a couple of boundaries still in
play and storms trying to fire along them. First boundary is roughly
along the Cumberland Parkway, left over from earlier storms. The
other is the surface front diving SE across southern Indiana. A
strong cap is in place with 700mb temps at 11-12C, and that is
working against storm intensification. However, steep lapse rates
above and below that cap mean that anything breaking through could
easily go severe, albeit more of a wind risk than a tornado risk.
Given that and coordination with SPC and JKL, will let the Tornado
Watch ride, most likely until its 00Z expiration.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Conditional severe threat continues across south-central KY this
afternoon into early this evening...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong digging trough
across the Midwest and Great Lakes, with an upstream ridge
amplifying across the western CONUS.  This trough will dig into the
Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow, allowing for drier weather and
much cooler temperatures to filter into the region.

Before the cooler and drier air works in, we must first deal with a
conditional severe weather threat this afternoon into early this
evening across south-central KY.  A volatile airmass has developed
in this region, with MLCAPEs of 3000+ J/kg according to the latest
SPC mesoanalysis.  However, very warm mid-level air has also
advected into this region (700mb temps around 11C) which is putting
the lid on convection thus far.  Latest satellite imagery shows a
boundary pushing into northern KY as of this writing.  This boundary
is only weakly convergent, thus there remains some uncertainty as to
whether additional convection will be able to push through the cap
and develop along it.  Latest hi-res guidance continues to support
development from 21-22Z along this boundary across southern KY, so
think it is too early to let our guard down.  If scattered
convection is able to develop, effective shear of 40-50 knots will
likely support quick supercell development capable of large hail and
damaging winds.  A conditional tornado threat will be possible with
any storm that can develop given the low-level speed shear, but
veered surface flow will limit low-level hodograph length.

The synoptic cold front located well north across central Illinois
will push through overnight, bringing cooler and drier conditions to
the region.  Overnight lows tonight will fall into the low and mid
60s, with falling dewpoints into the lower 60s.

The upper-level trough will dig into the region Monday afternoon.
This cold core aloft may be enough to induce some isolated
sprinkles/light showers over the Northern Bluegrass region of
Kentucky.  Otherwise, it will be a mainly dry day with much cooler
temperatures as highs will struggle to get out of the upper 70s.

Monday night will be mainly clear as a surface ridge builds in from
the northwest.  With generally light winds, it will be an
unseasonably cool night as temperatures dip into the low to mid
50s!  Some of these values may threaten record lows, so stay tuned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern is expected to persist across
North America this week with a deep trough in the east with a
corresponding upper level ridge out in the west. With the Ohio
Valley being under the influence of the upper trough, we will see
much below normal temperatures for the upcoming work week.

The latest deterministic and ensemble guidance is similar to the
previous 27/00Z guidance which leads to increased forecaster
confidence...especially in the Tuesday through Thursday range.
Surface high pressure will drift across the region at the beginning
of the forecast period.  This will lead to dry conditions with
mainly sunny days and mainly clear nights.  Could get very close to
record lows in some spots Tuesday morning.  In addition, we could
also see some record cold highs on Tuesday afternoon as readings
will only warm into the lower-middle 70s.  We still expect a warm up
from Wednesday into Thursday as temperatures look to warm into the
upper 70s to the lower 80s in the north with middle 80s in the
south.  Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s.

By Friday and into the weekend, the multi-model consensus continues
to agree that the upper level trough over the east will deepen
slightly as several vorticity lobes drop and rotate around the base
of the trough.  As this these lobes rotate through, they may induce
a cut off low to develop across the Ohio Valley.  The 12Z
deterministic Euro solution is not as deep as in previous runs.
However, the main story here will be that somewhat unsettled
conditions are expected to be in place from Friday through Sunday.
Overall, it does not look to be a washout, but scattered diurnally
driven convection looks likely.  Highs through this time fame look
to be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Unusually dynamic cold front for mid-July approaching the Ohio
Valley, and will push SE across Kentucky this evening. Will
initialize with gusty west winds and VFR conditions, with SCT-BKN cu
around 4K feet. Broken line of T-storms across Indiana is struggling
to hold together on its south end. While there is an outside chance
for a thunderstorm at any of the terminals this evening,
probabilities are low enough that the worst case would be including
VCTS at one or more sites. That will be a last-minute call, and most
likely would affect LEX, or in the very near-term, BWG.

Winds come around to NW overnight, with enough of a gradient to keep
speeds up at 7-9 kt. Will pick up winds to 10-12 kt by midday Monday
with mixing, and VFR conditions with only fair-weather cu.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......RAS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271907
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Conditional severe threat continues across south-central KY this
afternoon into early this evening...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong digging trough
across the Midwest and Great Lakes, with an upstream ridge
amplifying across the western CONUS.  This trough will dig into the
Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow, allowing for drier weather and
much cooler temperatures to filter into the region.

Before the cooler and drier air works in, we must first deal with a
conditional severe weather threat this afternoon into early this
evening across south-central KY.  A volatile airmass has developed
in this region, with MLCAPEs of 3000+ J/kg according to the latest
SPC mesoanalysis.  However, very warm mid-level air has also
advected into this region (700mb temps around 11C) which is putting
the lid on convection thus far.  Latest satellite imagery shows a
boundary pushing into northern KY as of this writing.  This boundary
is only weakly convergent, thus there remains some uncertainty as to
whether additional convection will be able to push through the cap
and develop along it.  Latest hi-res guidance continues to support
development from 21-22Z along this boundary across southern KY, so
think it is too early to let our guard down.  If scattered
convection is able to develop, effective shear of 40-50 knots will
likely support quick supercell development capable of large hail and
damaging winds.  A conditional tornado threat will be possible with
any storm that can develop given the low-level speed shear, but
veered surface flow will limit low-level hodograph length.

The synoptic cold front located well north across central Illinois
will push through overnight, bringing cooler and drier conditions to
the region.  Overnight lows tonight will fall into the low and mid
60s, with falling dewpoints into the lower 60s.

The upper-level trough will dig into the region Monday afternoon.
This cold core aloft may be enough to induce some isolated
sprinkles/light showers over the Northern Bluegrass region of
Kentucky.  Otherwise, it will be a mainly dry day with much cooler
temperatures as highs will struggle to get out of the upper 70s.

Monday night will be mainly clear as a surface ridge builds in from
the northwest.  With generally light winds, it will be an
unseasonably cool night as temperatures dip into the low to mid
50s!  Some of these values may threaten record lows, so stay tuned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern is expected to persist across
North America this week with a deep trough in the east with a
corresponding upper level ridge out in the west. With the Ohio
Valley being under the influence of the upper trough, we will see
much below normal temperatures for the upcoming work week.

The latest deterministic and ensemble guidance is similar to the
previous 27/00Z guidance which leads to increased forecaster
confidence...especially in the Tuesday through Thursday range.
Surface high pressure will drift across the region at the beginning
of the forecast period.  This will lead to dry conditions with
mainly sunny days and mainly clear nights.  Could get very close to
record lows in some spots Tuesday morning.  In addition, we could
also see some record cold highs on Tuesday afternoon as readings
will only warm into the lower-middle 70s.  We still expect a warm up
from Wednesday into Thursday as temperatures look to warm into the
upper 70s to the lower 80s in the north with middle 80s in the
south.  Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s.

By Friday and into the weekend, the multi-model consensus continues
to agree that the upper level trough over the east will deepen
slightly as several vorticity lobes drop and rotate around the base
of the trough.  As this these lobes rotate through, they may induce
a cut off low to develop across the Ohio Valley.  The 12Z
deterministic Euro solution is not as deep as in previous runs.
However, the main story here will be that somewhat unsettled
conditions are expected to be in place from Friday through Sunday.
Overall, it does not look to be a washout, but scattered diurnally
driven convection looks likely.  Highs through this time fame look
to be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Rather difficult TAF forecast unfolding this afternoon and evening,
as guidance is struggling to resolve convection across the
region.  It appears the main focus for convection is just now
shifting south of KSDF, so will initiate with a dry forecast there.
Expect showers/storms to affect KLEX/KBWG this afternoon as the
atmosphere remains quite unstable.  Some of these storms may be
severe, with locally damaging winds and large hail.  Will leave just
VCTS wording given the expected scattered nature of the storms and
amend as necessary.

Otherwise, a cold front will sweep through all sites tonight,
allowing for much drier air to work into the region.  All sites will
go VFR, with NNW winds around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271907
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Conditional severe threat continues across south-central KY this
afternoon into early this evening...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong digging trough
across the Midwest and Great Lakes, with an upstream ridge
amplifying across the western CONUS.  This trough will dig into the
Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow, allowing for drier weather and
much cooler temperatures to filter into the region.

Before the cooler and drier air works in, we must first deal with a
conditional severe weather threat this afternoon into early this
evening across south-central KY.  A volatile airmass has developed
in this region, with MLCAPEs of 3000+ J/kg according to the latest
SPC mesoanalysis.  However, very warm mid-level air has also
advected into this region (700mb temps around 11C) which is putting
the lid on convection thus far.  Latest satellite imagery shows a
boundary pushing into northern KY as of this writing.  This boundary
is only weakly convergent, thus there remains some uncertainty as to
whether additional convection will be able to push through the cap
and develop along it.  Latest hi-res guidance continues to support
development from 21-22Z along this boundary across southern KY, so
think it is too early to let our guard down.  If scattered
convection is able to develop, effective shear of 40-50 knots will
likely support quick supercell development capable of large hail and
damaging winds.  A conditional tornado threat will be possible with
any storm that can develop given the low-level speed shear, but
veered surface flow will limit low-level hodograph length.

The synoptic cold front located well north across central Illinois
will push through overnight, bringing cooler and drier conditions to
the region.  Overnight lows tonight will fall into the low and mid
60s, with falling dewpoints into the lower 60s.

The upper-level trough will dig into the region Monday afternoon.
This cold core aloft may be enough to induce some isolated
sprinkles/light showers over the Northern Bluegrass region of
Kentucky.  Otherwise, it will be a mainly dry day with much cooler
temperatures as highs will struggle to get out of the upper 70s.

Monday night will be mainly clear as a surface ridge builds in from
the northwest.  With generally light winds, it will be an
unseasonably cool night as temperatures dip into the low to mid
50s!  Some of these values may threaten record lows, so stay tuned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern is expected to persist across
North America this week with a deep trough in the east with a
corresponding upper level ridge out in the west. With the Ohio
Valley being under the influence of the upper trough, we will see
much below normal temperatures for the upcoming work week.

The latest deterministic and ensemble guidance is similar to the
previous 27/00Z guidance which leads to increased forecaster
confidence...especially in the Tuesday through Thursday range.
Surface high pressure will drift across the region at the beginning
of the forecast period.  This will lead to dry conditions with
mainly sunny days and mainly clear nights.  Could get very close to
record lows in some spots Tuesday morning.  In addition, we could
also see some record cold highs on Tuesday afternoon as readings
will only warm into the lower-middle 70s.  We still expect a warm up
from Wednesday into Thursday as temperatures look to warm into the
upper 70s to the lower 80s in the north with middle 80s in the
south.  Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s.

By Friday and into the weekend, the multi-model consensus continues
to agree that the upper level trough over the east will deepen
slightly as several vorticity lobes drop and rotate around the base
of the trough.  As this these lobes rotate through, they may induce
a cut off low to develop across the Ohio Valley.  The 12Z
deterministic Euro solution is not as deep as in previous runs.
However, the main story here will be that somewhat unsettled
conditions are expected to be in place from Friday through Sunday.
Overall, it does not look to be a washout, but scattered diurnally
driven convection looks likely.  Highs through this time fame look
to be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Rather difficult TAF forecast unfolding this afternoon and evening,
as guidance is struggling to resolve convection across the
region.  It appears the main focus for convection is just now
shifting south of KSDF, so will initiate with a dry forecast there.
Expect showers/storms to affect KLEX/KBWG this afternoon as the
atmosphere remains quite unstable.  Some of these storms may be
severe, with locally damaging winds and large hail.  Will leave just
VCTS wording given the expected scattered nature of the storms and
amend as necessary.

Otherwise, a cold front will sweep through all sites tonight,
allowing for much drier air to work into the region.  All sites will
go VFR, with NNW winds around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Latest thinking continues to remain on track.  Current severe
convection across east-central KY is likely still elevated in
nature, given surface temperatures only in the upper 60s and lower
70s.  This convection will mainly pose a large hail (possibly golf
ball sized at times) and isolated damaging wind threat.

A rather volatile airmass is advecting into south-central KY,
however, as peaks of sunshine have broke out (Bowling Green at
91/72).  The prefrontal trough will interact with this airmass later
this afternoon, which should be enough to weaken the cap and
intiaite scattered supercells, mainly across south-central KY.  The
latest runs of the HRRR continues to support this thinking.  These
supercells will be capable of large hail (potentially 2+ inches) and
damaging winds.  There will also be an isolated tornado threat given
the low-level speed shear and the lingering outflow boundaries that
storms may be able to interact with.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...

Currently:

The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.

Today:

Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today`s
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they`ll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.

Tonight through Monday:

Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.

Tues-Thurs we`ll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday`s highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations.  Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area.   We`ll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu.  Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Rather difficult TAF forecast unfolding this afternoon and evening,
as guidance is struggling to resolve convection across the
region.  It appears the main focus for convection is just now
shifting south of KSDF, so will initiate with a dry forecast there.
Expect showers/storms to affect KLEX/KBWG this afternoon as the
atmosphere remains quite unstable.  Some of these storms may be
severe, with locally damaging winds and large hail.  Will leave just
VCTS wording given the expected scattered nature of the storms and
amend as necessary.

Otherwise, a cold front will sweep through all sites tonight,
allowing for much drier air to work into the region.  All sites will
go VFR, with NNW winds around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Latest thinking continues to remain on track.  Current severe
convection across east-central KY is likely still elevated in
nature, given surface temperatures only in the upper 60s and lower
70s.  This convection will mainly pose a large hail (possibly golf
ball sized at times) and isolated damaging wind threat.

A rather volatile airmass is advecting into south-central KY,
however, as peaks of sunshine have broke out (Bowling Green at
91/72).  The prefrontal trough will interact with this airmass later
this afternoon, which should be enough to weaken the cap and
intiaite scattered supercells, mainly across south-central KY.  The
latest runs of the HRRR continues to support this thinking.  These
supercells will be capable of large hail (potentially 2+ inches) and
damaging winds.  There will also be an isolated tornado threat given
the low-level speed shear and the lingering outflow boundaries that
storms may be able to interact with.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...

Currently:

The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.

Today:

Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today`s
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they`ll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.

Tonight through Monday:

Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.

Tues-Thurs we`ll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday`s highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations.  Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area.   We`ll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu.  Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Rather difficult TAF forecast unfolding this afternoon and evening,
as guidance is struggling to resolve convection across the
region.  It appears the main focus for convection is just now
shifting south of KSDF, so will initiate with a dry forecast there.
Expect showers/storms to affect KLEX/KBWG this afternoon as the
atmosphere remains quite unstable.  Some of these storms may be
severe, with locally damaging winds and large hail.  Will leave just
VCTS wording given the expected scattered nature of the storms and
amend as necessary.

Otherwise, a cold front will sweep through all sites tonight,
allowing for much drier air to work into the region.  All sites will
go VFR, with NNW winds around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271628
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1228 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Latest thinking continues to remain on track.  Current severe
convection across east-central KY is likely still elevated in
nature, given surface temperatures only in the upper 60s and lower
70s.  This convection will mainly pose a large hail (possibly golf
ball sized at times) and isolated damaging wind threat.

A rather volatile airmass is advecting into south-central KY,
however, as peaks of sunshine have broke out (Bowling Green at
91/72).  The prefrontal trough will interact with this airmass later
this afternoon, which should be enough to weaken the cap and
intiaite scattered supercells, mainly across south-central KY.  The
latest runs of the HRRR continues to support this thinking.  These
supercells will be capable of large hail (potentially 2+ inches) and
damaging winds.  There will also be an isolated tornado threat given
the low-level speed shear and the lingering outflow boundaries that
storms may be able to interact with.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...

Currently:

The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.

Today:

Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today`s
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they`ll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.

Tonight through Monday:

Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.

Tues-Thurs we`ll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday`s highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations.  Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area.   We`ll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu.  Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Difficult forecast for today as ongoing convection causes
uncertainty in how convection will evolve later today. A surface low
is progged over central IL and moving toward the NE. Aloft,
upper-level low pressure is rotating down from the NW as a deep
Canadian trough primes to take over the region.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to threaten all three
terminals but given the uncertainty in timing, have not included
specifics other than VCTS (but even this is likely to change
throughout the day). Amendments will need to be made as storms
develop and threaten the terminals. The fropa is expected to have
cleared all three terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and
will take with it storm activity.

Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could be higher in or around any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271628
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1228 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Latest thinking continues to remain on track.  Current severe
convection across east-central KY is likely still elevated in
nature, given surface temperatures only in the upper 60s and lower
70s.  This convection will mainly pose a large hail (possibly golf
ball sized at times) and isolated damaging wind threat.

A rather volatile airmass is advecting into south-central KY,
however, as peaks of sunshine have broke out (Bowling Green at
91/72).  The prefrontal trough will interact with this airmass later
this afternoon, which should be enough to weaken the cap and
intiaite scattered supercells, mainly across south-central KY.  The
latest runs of the HRRR continues to support this thinking.  These
supercells will be capable of large hail (potentially 2+ inches) and
damaging winds.  There will also be an isolated tornado threat given
the low-level speed shear and the lingering outflow boundaries that
storms may be able to interact with.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...

Currently:

The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.

Today:

Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today`s
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they`ll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.

Tonight through Monday:

Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.

Tues-Thurs we`ll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday`s highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations.  Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area.   We`ll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu.  Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Difficult forecast for today as ongoing convection causes
uncertainty in how convection will evolve later today. A surface low
is progged over central IL and moving toward the NE. Aloft,
upper-level low pressure is rotating down from the NW as a deep
Canadian trough primes to take over the region.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to threaten all three
terminals but given the uncertainty in timing, have not included
specifics other than VCTS (but even this is likely to change
throughout the day). Amendments will need to be made as storms
develop and threaten the terminals. The fropa is expected to have
cleared all three terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and
will take with it storm activity.

Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could be higher in or around any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271333
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
933 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 932 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Updated the forecast this morning to account for ongoing trends.
Convection continues to develop across central KY early this morning
as the low-level jet continues to impinge upon a lingering outflow
boundary/effective weak warm front.  Much of this convection remains
elevated at this time due to overnight convection and surface
temperatures in the lower 70s.  However, the capped warm sector has
already pushed ENE into western Kentucky (into BWG as of this
writing) and will continue to try and push northeast into central KY
through the late morning and early afternoon hours.  It appears the
best chance for renewed surface-based convection will be along a
pre-frontal trough, which is currently just south of Saint Louis
northeast toward Indianapolis.

The storms that can form will be fighting a decent mid-level cap,
and with effective shear of 50-60 knots oriented orthogonal to the
surface forcing, these factors will favor initial supercell
development.  With the EML advecting in dry air aloft and steep
mid-level lapse rates, large hail appears to be the main threat
along with damaging winds.  An isolated tornado is also possible
given mostly speed shear in the low-levels, but the greatest tornado
threat will likely reside across eastern KY where low-level flow
will be more favorably backed.  It must be said, all of this is
quite conditional if we can see some breaks in the clouds before the
trough moves in.  It appears the better diurnal heating by the time
the trough moves in will be south of the Ohio River, with the
greatest threat appearing to be across south-central KY. Certainly a
complex forecast, and will continue to update as needed.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...

Currently:

The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.

Today:

Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today`s
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they`ll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.

Tonight through Monday:

Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.

Tues-Thurs we`ll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday`s highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations.  Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area.   We`ll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu.  Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Difficult forecast for today as ongoing convection causes
uncertainty in how convection will evolve later today. A surface low
is progged over central IL and moving toward the NE. Aloft,
upper-level low pressure is rotating down from the NW as a deep
Canadian trough primes to take over the region.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to threaten all three
terminals but given the uncertainty in timing, have not included
specifics other than VCTS (but even this is likely to change
throughout the day). Amendments will need to be made as storms
develop and threaten the terminals. The fropa is expected to have
cleared all three terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and
will take with it storm activity.

Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could be higher in or around any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271333
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
933 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 932 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Updated the forecast this morning to account for ongoing trends.
Convection continues to develop across central KY early this morning
as the low-level jet continues to impinge upon a lingering outflow
boundary/effective weak warm front.  Much of this convection remains
elevated at this time due to overnight convection and surface
temperatures in the lower 70s.  However, the capped warm sector has
already pushed ENE into western Kentucky (into BWG as of this
writing) and will continue to try and push northeast into central KY
through the late morning and early afternoon hours.  It appears the
best chance for renewed surface-based convection will be along a
pre-frontal trough, which is currently just south of Saint Louis
northeast toward Indianapolis.

The storms that can form will be fighting a decent mid-level cap,
and with effective shear of 50-60 knots oriented orthogonal to the
surface forcing, these factors will favor initial supercell
development.  With the EML advecting in dry air aloft and steep
mid-level lapse rates, large hail appears to be the main threat
along with damaging winds.  An isolated tornado is also possible
given mostly speed shear in the low-levels, but the greatest tornado
threat will likely reside across eastern KY where low-level flow
will be more favorably backed.  It must be said, all of this is
quite conditional if we can see some breaks in the clouds before the
trough moves in.  It appears the better diurnal heating by the time
the trough moves in will be south of the Ohio River, with the
greatest threat appearing to be across south-central KY. Certainly a
complex forecast, and will continue to update as needed.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...

Currently:

The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.

Today:

Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today`s
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they`ll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.

Tonight through Monday:

Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.

Tues-Thurs we`ll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday`s highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations.  Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area.   We`ll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu.  Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Difficult forecast for today as ongoing convection causes
uncertainty in how convection will evolve later today. A surface low
is progged over central IL and moving toward the NE. Aloft,
upper-level low pressure is rotating down from the NW as a deep
Canadian trough primes to take over the region.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to threaten all three
terminals but given the uncertainty in timing, have not included
specifics other than VCTS (but even this is likely to change
throughout the day). Amendments will need to be made as storms
develop and threaten the terminals. The fropa is expected to have
cleared all three terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and
will take with it storm activity.

Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could be higher in or around any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271057
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Made minor updates to account for continuing convection across
central KY and southern IN. Heavy to torrential rainfall continues
to be the primary threat as a relative min in severe activity
briefly occurs. Gusty winds will continue in and around storms and
the gradient winds will increase as the diurnal heating machine
kicks in. The HRRR has been one of the best performing models
through the overnight period so if this pans out, this relative min
could continue through the next few hours before ramping back up
again. Shear is already beginning to increase and instability will
be on the rise.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...

Currently:

The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.

Today:

Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today`s
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they`ll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.

Tonight through Monday:

Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.

Tues-Thurs we`ll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday`s highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations.  Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area.   We`ll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu.  Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Difficult forecast for today as ongoing convection causes
uncertainty in how convection will evolve later today. A surface low
is progged over central IL and moving toward the NE. Aloft,
upper-level low pressure is rotating down from the NW as a deep
Canadian trough primes to take over the region.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to threaten all three
terminals but given the uncertainty in timing, have not included
specifics other than VCTS (but even this is likely to change
throughout the day). Amendments will need to be made as storms
develop and threaten the terminals. The fropa is expected to have
cleared all three terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and
will take with it storm activity.

Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could be higher in or around any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271057
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Made minor updates to account for continuing convection across
central KY and southern IN. Heavy to torrential rainfall continues
to be the primary threat as a relative min in severe activity
briefly occurs. Gusty winds will continue in and around storms and
the gradient winds will increase as the diurnal heating machine
kicks in. The HRRR has been one of the best performing models
through the overnight period so if this pans out, this relative min
could continue through the next few hours before ramping back up
again. Shear is already beginning to increase and instability will
be on the rise.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...

Currently:

The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.

Today:

Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today`s
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they`ll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.

Tonight through Monday:

Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.

Tues-Thurs we`ll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday`s highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations.  Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area.   We`ll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu.  Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Difficult forecast for today as ongoing convection causes
uncertainty in how convection will evolve later today. A surface low
is progged over central IL and moving toward the NE. Aloft,
upper-level low pressure is rotating down from the NW as a deep
Canadian trough primes to take over the region.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to threaten all three
terminals but given the uncertainty in timing, have not included
specifics other than VCTS (but even this is likely to change
throughout the day). Amendments will need to be made as storms
develop and threaten the terminals. The fropa is expected to have
cleared all three terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and
will take with it storm activity.

Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could be higher in or around any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270800
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...

Currently:

The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.

Today:

Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today`s
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they`ll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.

Tonight through Monday:

Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.

Tues-Thurs we`ll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday`s highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations.  Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area.   We`ll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu.  Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Decaying MCS continues to push off toward the east, leaving a brief
reprieve for area terminals. Behind it, some showers have popped up
around the region, but should pose no significant impact aviation
interests as these shouldn`t contain lightning nor drop ceilings
below VFR. However, hi-res models are indicating redevelopment of
convection after 07Z over far southern IN and northern KY, which
could put SDF in the cross hairs once again. This activity is
anticipated to remain elevated and not pose a severe threat; should
be unlike earlier this evening. This development, if it pans out, is
due to instability advecting back in behind the MCS and jets moving
in from the north and west. Given the lack in confidence in this
occurring though, have negated mentioning in this TAF issuance and
will simply amend as necessary.

Uncertainty in exact timing and placement of convection on Sunday
also negates mention in this TAF issuance. Storms firing up during
the day will be highly dependent on what happens over the next
several hours. However, storms can be expected in or around all
three terminals with a potential for severe weather, particularly
near LEX and BWG. The fropa is expected to have cleared all three
terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and will take with it
storm activity.

Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could even higher in or around any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270800
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...

Currently:

The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.

Today:

Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today`s
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they`ll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.

Tonight through Monday:

Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.

Tues-Thurs we`ll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday`s highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations.  Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area.   We`ll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu.  Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Decaying MCS continues to push off toward the east, leaving a brief
reprieve for area terminals. Behind it, some showers have popped up
around the region, but should pose no significant impact aviation
interests as these shouldn`t contain lightning nor drop ceilings
below VFR. However, hi-res models are indicating redevelopment of
convection after 07Z over far southern IN and northern KY, which
could put SDF in the cross hairs once again. This activity is
anticipated to remain elevated and not pose a severe threat; should
be unlike earlier this evening. This development, if it pans out, is
due to instability advecting back in behind the MCS and jets moving
in from the north and west. Given the lack in confidence in this
occurring though, have negated mentioning in this TAF issuance and
will simply amend as necessary.

Uncertainty in exact timing and placement of convection on Sunday
also negates mention in this TAF issuance. Storms firing up during
the day will be highly dependent on what happens over the next
several hours. However, storms can be expected in or around all
three terminals with a potential for severe weather, particularly
near LEX and BWG. The fropa is expected to have cleared all three
terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and will take with it
storm activity.

Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could even higher in or around any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270545
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
145 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1200+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots.  This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push through IL/IN and into KY.  The timing of this convection puts
it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and into the
Louisville metro area between 3-5Z.  Given the timing, the surface
will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.  Therefore, think
the best damaging wind potential (some potentially significant wind
gusts) will be just northwest of the LMK CWA, but still expect a
swath of potentially damaging winds to push into southern IN and
northern KY tonight, with the system likely weakening as it pushes
further into KY.  This damaging wind threat will go all the way into
the Lexington metro, but will likely be more localized in nature at
that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Decaying MCS continues to push off toward the east, leaving a brief
reprieve for area terminals. Behind it, some showers have popped up
around the region, but should pose no significant impact aviation
interests as these shouldn`t contain lightning nor drop ceilings
below VFR. However, hi-res models are indicating redevelopment of
convection after 07Z over far southern IN and northern KY, which
could put SDF in the cross hairs once again. This activity is
anticipated to remain elevated and not pose a severe threat; should
be unlike earlier this evening. This development, if it pans out, is
due to instability advecting back in behind the MCS and jets moving
in from the north and west. Given the lack in confidence in this
occurring though, have negated mentioning in this TAF issuance and
will simply amend as necessary.

Uncertainty in exact timing and placement of convection on Sunday
also negates mention in this TAF issuance. Storms firing up during
the day will be highly dependent on what happens over the next
several hours. However, storms can be expected in or around all
three terminals with a potential for severe weather, particularly
near LEX and BWG. The fropa is expected to have cleared all three
terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and will take with it
storm activity.

Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could even higher in or around any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........lg







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270545
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
145 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1200+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots.  This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push through IL/IN and into KY.  The timing of this convection puts
it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and into the
Louisville metro area between 3-5Z.  Given the timing, the surface
will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.  Therefore, think
the best damaging wind potential (some potentially significant wind
gusts) will be just northwest of the LMK CWA, but still expect a
swath of potentially damaging winds to push into southern IN and
northern KY tonight, with the system likely weakening as it pushes
further into KY.  This damaging wind threat will go all the way into
the Lexington metro, but will likely be more localized in nature at
that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Decaying MCS continues to push off toward the east, leaving a brief
reprieve for area terminals. Behind it, some showers have popped up
around the region, but should pose no significant impact aviation
interests as these shouldn`t contain lightning nor drop ceilings
below VFR. However, hi-res models are indicating redevelopment of
convection after 07Z over far southern IN and northern KY, which
could put SDF in the cross hairs once again. This activity is
anticipated to remain elevated and not pose a severe threat; should
be unlike earlier this evening. This development, if it pans out, is
due to instability advecting back in behind the MCS and jets moving
in from the north and west. Given the lack in confidence in this
occurring though, have negated mentioning in this TAF issuance and
will simply amend as necessary.

Uncertainty in exact timing and placement of convection on Sunday
also negates mention in this TAF issuance. Storms firing up during
the day will be highly dependent on what happens over the next
several hours. However, storms can be expected in or around all
three terminals with a potential for severe weather, particularly
near LEX and BWG. The fropa is expected to have cleared all three
terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and will take with it
storm activity.

Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could even higher in or around any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270502
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Cancelled the watch as severe convection has moved out of the area.
Rain with scattered storms will continue over the next few hours
before possible redevelopment of stronger storms during the pre-dawn
hours.  Stay tuned for more details.

Issued at 1215 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Ongoing MCS continues to track across central KY with the severe
portion of the line weakening as it loses support. However, pockets
of instability still exist in untapped areas, particularly in
southern KY. Have trimmed back some KY counties from the watch and
will likely clear all counties with the next update. The MCS is
moving away from the better speed shear for now, although the winds
aloft will strengthen by the pre-dawn hours on Sunday as both the
low-level and upper-level jets overtake the forecast area. DCAPE
continues to be stout for this time of night, with SPC`s meso
analysis indicating over 1100 J/kg over the eastern counties. So
far, flooding has not been an issue but will continue to monitor as
this system has had a history of producing copious amounts of rain.
For reference, 3-hour FFG exceeds 2.75 inches for much of central
KY, especially in the south and counties where less rain has been
seen over the last several weeks.

Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Strong to severe storms roughly along the Ohio River at this hour.
SPC has issued a second Severe Thunderstorm Watch covering all of
central Kentucky ahead of the line. Storms were sub-severe for quite
a while, but NW-SE oriented axis of downdraft CAPE over central
Kentucky, and ingestion of isolated pop-ups ahead of the line, have
combined to push storms to SVR limits.

Watch is valid until 08Z, but the action will most likely be over
before then. Instability will diminish at least somewhat with the
loss of heating, and the NE portion of the line will outrun the
rest. At that point, will start to see training along an east-west
oriented line, which could result in short-fuse flooding problems
overnight.

Issued at 555 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Cluster of strong T-storms is ongoing over central Illinois, but has
yet to go severe. The air mass over the Ohio Valley remains quite
unstable and favorable to sustain convection for at least the next
few hours as this complex heads ESE toward the area. The faster end
of our current forecast timing still appears realistic, with
thunderstorms reaching Dubois County around 8 PM EDT, Louisville
Metro shortly before 10 PM, and the Lexington area around 11 PM.
This is definitely leaning faster than most of the short-term model
guidance, as they tend to underestimate the acceleration that
happens when a cold pool becomes established.

SPC has lowered the SVR risk to slight but we remain in play, with
damaging winds as the main threat.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1200+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots.  This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push through IL/IN and into KY.  The timing of this convection puts
it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and into the
Louisville metro area between 3-5Z.  Given the timing, the surface
will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.  Therefore, think
the best damaging wind potential (some potentially significant wind
gusts) will be just northwest of the LMK CWA, but still expect a
swath of potentially damaging winds to push into southern IN and
northern KY tonight, with the system likely weakening as it pushes
further into KY.  This damaging wind threat will go all the way into
the Lexington metro, but will likely be more localized in nature at
that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Main challenge is timing and impact of the convective system that
will push across SDF and LEX this evening. Even the high-resolution
models struggle with cold pool processes, and often end up too slow
in these situations. Knowing that, will stick with the previous
theme of T-storms impacting SDF 02-05Z and LEX 03-06Z. Believe that
the lowest conditions worthy of a TEMPO would be high-end MVFR
ceilings and borderline IFR visibility, but in the most intense part
of the line IFR ceilings and LIFR vis in heavy rain cannot be ruled
out. Wind gusts well in excess of 30 kt and other thunderstorm
hazards will also likely affect ground operations.

Models are hinting that overnight re-development is possible,
especially along the SW flank once the initial line of storms moves
through. Will keep VCTS in through roughly mid-morning.

Sunday will see a tight southwesterly pressure gradient as the front
makes its way south and east across Kentucky. Sustained winds will
be around 15 kt for most of the afternoon, with frequent 20-25 kt
gusts. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Certainly can`t rule out
thunderstorms, but that will be so dependent on how tonight`s storms
evolve. Given that low confidence, will not include any TS on Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......LG/AMS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270502
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Cancelled the watch as severe convection has moved out of the area.
Rain with scattered storms will continue over the next few hours
before possible redevelopment of stronger storms during the pre-dawn
hours.  Stay tuned for more details.

Issued at 1215 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Ongoing MCS continues to track across central KY with the severe
portion of the line weakening as it loses support. However, pockets
of instability still exist in untapped areas, particularly in
southern KY. Have trimmed back some KY counties from the watch and
will likely clear all counties with the next update. The MCS is
moving away from the better speed shear for now, although the winds
aloft will strengthen by the pre-dawn hours on Sunday as both the
low-level and upper-level jets overtake the forecast area. DCAPE
continues to be stout for this time of night, with SPC`s meso
analysis indicating over 1100 J/kg over the eastern counties. So
far, flooding has not been an issue but will continue to monitor as
this system has had a history of producing copious amounts of rain.
For reference, 3-hour FFG exceeds 2.75 inches for much of central
KY, especially in the south and counties where less rain has been
seen over the last several weeks.

Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Strong to severe storms roughly along the Ohio River at this hour.
SPC has issued a second Severe Thunderstorm Watch covering all of
central Kentucky ahead of the line. Storms were sub-severe for quite
a while, but NW-SE oriented axis of downdraft CAPE over central
Kentucky, and ingestion of isolated pop-ups ahead of the line, have
combined to push storms to SVR limits.

Watch is valid until 08Z, but the action will most likely be over
before then. Instability will diminish at least somewhat with the
loss of heating, and the NE portion of the line will outrun the
rest. At that point, will start to see training along an east-west
oriented line, which could result in short-fuse flooding problems
overnight.

Issued at 555 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Cluster of strong T-storms is ongoing over central Illinois, but has
yet to go severe. The air mass over the Ohio Valley remains quite
unstable and favorable to sustain convection for at least the next
few hours as this complex heads ESE toward the area. The faster end
of our current forecast timing still appears realistic, with
thunderstorms reaching Dubois County around 8 PM EDT, Louisville
Metro shortly before 10 PM, and the Lexington area around 11 PM.
This is definitely leaning faster than most of the short-term model
guidance, as they tend to underestimate the acceleration that
happens when a cold pool becomes established.

SPC has lowered the SVR risk to slight but we remain in play, with
damaging winds as the main threat.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1200+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots.  This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push through IL/IN and into KY.  The timing of this convection puts
it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and into the
Louisville metro area between 3-5Z.  Given the timing, the surface
will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.  Therefore, think
the best damaging wind potential (some potentially significant wind
gusts) will be just northwest of the LMK CWA, but still expect a
swath of potentially damaging winds to push into southern IN and
northern KY tonight, with the system likely weakening as it pushes
further into KY.  This damaging wind threat will go all the way into
the Lexington metro, but will likely be more localized in nature at
that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Main challenge is timing and impact of the convective system that
will push across SDF and LEX this evening. Even the high-resolution
models struggle with cold pool processes, and often end up too slow
in these situations. Knowing that, will stick with the previous
theme of T-storms impacting SDF 02-05Z and LEX 03-06Z. Believe that
the lowest conditions worthy of a TEMPO would be high-end MVFR
ceilings and borderline IFR visibility, but in the most intense part
of the line IFR ceilings and LIFR vis in heavy rain cannot be ruled
out. Wind gusts well in excess of 30 kt and other thunderstorm
hazards will also likely affect ground operations.

Models are hinting that overnight re-development is possible,
especially along the SW flank once the initial line of storms moves
through. Will keep VCTS in through roughly mid-morning.

Sunday will see a tight southwesterly pressure gradient as the front
makes its way south and east across Kentucky. Sustained winds will
be around 15 kt for most of the afternoon, with frequent 20-25 kt
gusts. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Certainly can`t rule out
thunderstorms, but that will be so dependent on how tonight`s storms
evolve. Given that low confidence, will not include any TS on Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......LG/AMS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270419
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1219 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1215 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Ongoing MCS continues to track across central KY with the severe
portion of the line weakening as it loses support. However, pockets
of instability still exist in untapped areas, particularly in
southern KY. Have trimmed back some KY counties from the watch and
will likely clear all counties with the next update. The MCS is
moving away from the better speed shear for now, although the winds
aloft will strengthen by the pre-dawn hours on Sunday as both the
low-level and upper-level jets overtake the forecast area. DCAPE
continues to be stout for this time of night, with SPC`s meso
analysis indicating over 1100 J/kg over the eastern counties. So
far, flooding has not been an issue but will continue to monitor as
this system has had a history of producing copious amounts of rain.
For reference, 3-hour FFG exceeds 2.75 inches for much of central
KY, especially in the south and counties where less rain has been
seen over the last several weeks.

Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Strong to severe storms roughly along the Ohio River at this hour.
SPC has issued a second Severe Thunderstorm Watch covering all of
central Kentucky ahead of the line. Storms were sub-severe for quite
a while, but NW-SE oriented axis of downdraft CAPE over central
Kentucky, and ingestion of isolated pop-ups ahead of the line, have
combined to push storms to SVR limits.

Watch is valid until 08Z, but the action will most likely be over
before then. Instability will diminish at least somewhat with the
loss of heating, and the NE portion of the line will outrun the
rest. At that point, will start to see training along an east-west
oriented line, which could result in short-fuse flooding problems
overnight.

Issued at 555 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Cluster of strong T-storms is ongoing over central Illinois, but has
yet to go severe. The air mass over the Ohio Valley remains quite
unstable and favorable to sustain convection for at least the next
few hours as this complex heads ESE toward the area. The faster end
of our current forecast timing still appears realistic, with
thunderstorms reaching Dubois County around 8 PM EDT, Louisville
Metro shortly before 10 PM, and the Lexington area around 11 PM.
This is definitely leaning faster than most of the short-term model
guidance, as they tend to underestimate the acceleration that
happens when a cold pool becomes established.

SPC has lowered the SVR risk to slight but we remain in play, with
damaging winds as the main threat.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1200+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots.  This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push through IL/IN and into KY.  The timing of this convection puts
it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and into the
Louisville metro area between 3-5Z.  Given the timing, the surface
will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.  Therefore, think
the best damaging wind potential (some potentially significant wind
gusts) will be just northwest of the LMK CWA, but still expect a
swath of potentially damaging winds to push into southern IN and
northern KY tonight, with the system likely weakening as it pushes
further into KY.  This damaging wind threat will go all the way into
the Lexington metro, but will likely be more localized in nature at
that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Main challenge is timing and impact of the convective system that
will push across SDF and LEX this evening. Even the high-resolution
models struggle with cold pool processes, and often end up too slow
in these situations. Knowing that, will stick with the previous
theme of T-storms impacting SDF 02-05Z and LEX 03-06Z. Believe that
the lowest conditions worthy of a TEMPO would be high-end MVFR
ceilings and borderline IFR visibility, but in the most intense part
of the line IFR ceilings and LIFR vis in heavy rain cannot be ruled
out. Wind gusts well in excess of 30 kt and other thunderstorm
hazards will also likely affect ground operations.

Models are hinting that overnight re-development is possible,
especially along the SW flank once the initial line of storms moves
through. Will keep VCTS in through roughly mid-morning.

Sunday will see a tight southwesterly pressure gradient as the front
makes its way south and east across Kentucky. Sustained winds will
be around 15 kt for most of the afternoon, with frequent 20-25 kt
gusts. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Certainly can`t rule out
thunderstorms, but that will be so dependent on how tonight`s storms
evolve. Given that low confidence, will not include any TS on Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......lg
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270419
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1219 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1215 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Ongoing MCS continues to track across central KY with the severe
portion of the line weakening as it loses support. However, pockets
of instability still exist in untapped areas, particularly in
southern KY. Have trimmed back some KY counties from the watch and
will likely clear all counties with the next update. The MCS is
moving away from the better speed shear for now, although the winds
aloft will strengthen by the pre-dawn hours on Sunday as both the
low-level and upper-level jets overtake the forecast area. DCAPE
continues to be stout for this time of night, with SPC`s meso
analysis indicating over 1100 J/kg over the eastern counties. So
far, flooding has not been an issue but will continue to monitor as
this system has had a history of producing copious amounts of rain.
For reference, 3-hour FFG exceeds 2.75 inches for much of central
KY, especially in the south and counties where less rain has been
seen over the last several weeks.

Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Strong to severe storms roughly along the Ohio River at this hour.
SPC has issued a second Severe Thunderstorm Watch covering all of
central Kentucky ahead of the line. Storms were sub-severe for quite
a while, but NW-SE oriented axis of downdraft CAPE over central
Kentucky, and ingestion of isolated pop-ups ahead of the line, have
combined to push storms to SVR limits.

Watch is valid until 08Z, but the action will most likely be over
before then. Instability will diminish at least somewhat with the
loss of heating, and the NE portion of the line will outrun the
rest. At that point, will start to see training along an east-west
oriented line, which could result in short-fuse flooding problems
overnight.

Issued at 555 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Cluster of strong T-storms is ongoing over central Illinois, but has
yet to go severe. The air mass over the Ohio Valley remains quite
unstable and favorable to sustain convection for at least the next
few hours as this complex heads ESE toward the area. The faster end
of our current forecast timing still appears realistic, with
thunderstorms reaching Dubois County around 8 PM EDT, Louisville
Metro shortly before 10 PM, and the Lexington area around 11 PM.
This is definitely leaning faster than most of the short-term model
guidance, as they tend to underestimate the acceleration that
happens when a cold pool becomes established.

SPC has lowered the SVR risk to slight but we remain in play, with
damaging winds as the main threat.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1200+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots.  This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push through IL/IN and into KY.  The timing of this convection puts
it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and into the
Louisville metro area between 3-5Z.  Given the timing, the surface
will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.  Therefore, think
the best damaging wind potential (some potentially significant wind
gusts) will be just northwest of the LMK CWA, but still expect a
swath of potentially damaging winds to push into southern IN and
northern KY tonight, with the system likely weakening as it pushes
further into KY.  This damaging wind threat will go all the way into
the Lexington metro, but will likely be more localized in nature at
that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Main challenge is timing and impact of the convective system that
will push across SDF and LEX this evening. Even the high-resolution
models struggle with cold pool processes, and often end up too slow
in these situations. Knowing that, will stick with the previous
theme of T-storms impacting SDF 02-05Z and LEX 03-06Z. Believe that
the lowest conditions worthy of a TEMPO would be high-end MVFR
ceilings and borderline IFR visibility, but in the most intense part
of the line IFR ceilings and LIFR vis in heavy rain cannot be ruled
out. Wind gusts well in excess of 30 kt and other thunderstorm
hazards will also likely affect ground operations.

Models are hinting that overnight re-development is possible,
especially along the SW flank once the initial line of storms moves
through. Will keep VCTS in through roughly mid-morning.

Sunday will see a tight southwesterly pressure gradient as the front
makes its way south and east across Kentucky. Sustained winds will
be around 15 kt for most of the afternoon, with frequent 20-25 kt
gusts. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Certainly can`t rule out
thunderstorms, but that will be so dependent on how tonight`s storms
evolve. Given that low confidence, will not include any TS on Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......lg
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270213
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1013 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Strong to severe storms roughly along the Ohio River at this hour.
SPC has issued a second Severe Thunderstorm Watch covering all of
central Kentucky ahead of the line. Storms were sub-severe for quite
a while, but NW-SE oriented axis of downdraft CAPE over central
Kentucky, and ingestion of isolated pop-ups ahead of the line, have
combined to push storms to SVR limits.

Watch is valid until 08Z, but the action will most likely be over
before then. Instability will diminish at least somewhat with the
loss of heating, and the NE portion of the line will outrun the
rest. At that point, will start to see training along an east-west
oriented line, which could result in short-fuse flooding problems
overnight.

Issued at 555 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Cluster of strong T-storms is ongoing over central Illinois, but has
yet to go severe. The air mass over the Ohio Valley remains quite
unstable and favorable to sustain convection for at least the next
few hours as this complex heads ESE toward the area. The faster end
of our current forecast timing still appears realistic, with
thunderstorms reaching Dubois County around 8 PM EDT, Louisville
Metro shortly before 10 PM, and the Lexington area around 11 PM.
This is definitely leaning faster than most of the short-term model
guidance, as they tend to underestimate the acceleration that
happens when a cold pool becomes established.

SPC has lowered the SVR risk to slight but we remain in play, with
damaging winds as the main threat.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1200+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots.  This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push through IL/IN and into KY.  The timing of this convection puts
it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and into the
Louisville metro area between 3-5Z.  Given the timing, the surface
will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.  Therefore, think
the best damaging wind potential (some potentially significant wind
gusts) will be just northwest of the LMK CWA, but still expect a
swath of potentially damaging winds to push into southern IN and
northern KY tonight, with the system likely weakening as it pushes
further into KY.  This damaging wind threat will go all the way into
the Lexington metro, but will likely be more localized in nature at
that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Main challenge is timing and impact of the convective system that
will push across SDF and LEX this evening. Even the high-resolution
models struggle with cold pool processes, and often end up too slow
in these situations. Knowing that, will stick with the previous
theme of T-storms impacting SDF 02-05Z and LEX 03-06Z. Believe that
the lowest conditions worthy of a TEMPO would be high-end MVFR
ceilings and borderline IFR visibility, but in the most intense part
of the line IFR ceilings and LIFR vis in heavy rain cannot be ruled
out. Wind gusts well in excess of 30 kt and other thunderstorm
hazards will also likely affect ground operations.

Models are hinting that overnight re-development is possible,
especially along the SW flank once the initial line of storms moves
through. Will keep VCTS in through roughly mid-morning.

Sunday will see a tight southwesterly pressure gradient as the front
makes its way south and east across Kentucky. Sustained winds will
be around 15 kt for most of the afternoon, with frequent 20-25 kt
gusts. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Certainly can`t rule out
thunderstorms, but that will be so dependent on how tonight`s storms
evolve. Given that low confidence, will not include any TS on Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......RAS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270213
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1013 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Strong to severe storms roughly along the Ohio River at this hour.
SPC has issued a second Severe Thunderstorm Watch covering all of
central Kentucky ahead of the line. Storms were sub-severe for quite
a while, but NW-SE oriented axis of downdraft CAPE over central
Kentucky, and ingestion of isolated pop-ups ahead of the line, have
combined to push storms to SVR limits.

Watch is valid until 08Z, but the action will most likely be over
before then. Instability will diminish at least somewhat with the
loss of heating, and the NE portion of the line will outrun the
rest. At that point, will start to see training along an east-west
oriented line, which could result in short-fuse flooding problems
overnight.

Issued at 555 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Cluster of strong T-storms is ongoing over central Illinois, but has
yet to go severe. The air mass over the Ohio Valley remains quite
unstable and favorable to sustain convection for at least the next
few hours as this complex heads ESE toward the area. The faster end
of our current forecast timing still appears realistic, with
thunderstorms reaching Dubois County around 8 PM EDT, Louisville
Metro shortly before 10 PM, and the Lexington area around 11 PM.
This is definitely leaning faster than most of the short-term model
guidance, as they tend to underestimate the acceleration that
happens when a cold pool becomes established.

SPC has lowered the SVR risk to slight but we remain in play, with
damaging winds as the main threat.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1200+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots.  This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push through IL/IN and into KY.  The timing of this convection puts
it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and into the
Louisville metro area between 3-5Z.  Given the timing, the surface
will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.  Therefore, think
the best damaging wind potential (some potentially significant wind
gusts) will be just northwest of the LMK CWA, but still expect a
swath of potentially damaging winds to push into southern IN and
northern KY tonight, with the system likely weakening as it pushes
further into KY.  This damaging wind threat will go all the way into
the Lexington metro, but will likely be more localized in nature at
that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Main challenge is timing and impact of the convective system that
will push across SDF and LEX this evening. Even the high-resolution
models struggle with cold pool processes, and often end up too slow
in these situations. Knowing that, will stick with the previous
theme of T-storms impacting SDF 02-05Z and LEX 03-06Z. Believe that
the lowest conditions worthy of a TEMPO would be high-end MVFR
ceilings and borderline IFR visibility, but in the most intense part
of the line IFR ceilings and LIFR vis in heavy rain cannot be ruled
out. Wind gusts well in excess of 30 kt and other thunderstorm
hazards will also likely affect ground operations.

Models are hinting that overnight re-development is possible,
especially along the SW flank once the initial line of storms moves
through. Will keep VCTS in through roughly mid-morning.

Sunday will see a tight southwesterly pressure gradient as the front
makes its way south and east across Kentucky. Sustained winds will
be around 15 kt for most of the afternoon, with frequent 20-25 kt
gusts. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Certainly can`t rule out
thunderstorms, but that will be so dependent on how tonight`s storms
evolve. Given that low confidence, will not include any TS on Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......RAS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 262307
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
707 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 555 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Cluster of strong T-storms is ongoing over central Illinois, but has
yet to go severe. The air mass over the Ohio Valley remains quite
unstable and favorable to sustain convection for at least the next
few hours as this complex heads ESE toward the area. The faster end
of our current forecast timing still appears realistic, with
thunderstorms reaching Dubois County around 8 PM EDT, Louisville
Metro shortly before 10 PM, and the Lexington area around 11 PM.
This is definitely leaning faster than most of the short-term model
guidance, as they tend to underestimate the acceleration that
happens when a cold pool becomes established.

SPC has lowered the SVR risk to slight but we remain in play, with
damaging winds as the main threat.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1200+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots.  This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push through IL/IN and into KY.  The timing of this convection puts
it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and into the
Louisville metro area between 3-5Z.  Given the timing, the surface
will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.  Therefore, think
the best damaging wind potential (some potentially significant wind
gusts) will be just northwest of the LMK CWA, but still expect a
swath of potentially damaging winds to push into southern IN and
northern KY tonight, with the system likely weakening as it pushes
further into KY.  This damaging wind threat will go all the way into
the Lexington metro, but will likely be more localized in nature at
that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Main challenge is timing and impact of the convective system that
will push across SDF and LEX this evening. Even the high-resolution
models struggle with cold pool processes, and often end up too slow
in these situations. Knowing that, will stick with the previous
theme of T-storms impacting SDF 02-05Z and LEX 03-06Z. Believe that
the lowest conditions worthy of a TEMPO would be high-end MVFR
ceilings and borderline IFR visibility, but in the most intense part
of the line IFR ceilings and LIFR vis in heavy rain cannot be ruled
out. Wind gusts well in excess of 30 kt and other thunderstorm
hazards will also likely affect ground operations.

Models are hinting that overnight re-development is possible,
especially along the SW flank once the initial line of storms moves
through. Will keep VCTS in through roughly mid-morning.

Sunday will see a tight southwesterly pressure gradient as the front
makes its way south and east across Kentucky. Sustained winds will
be around 15 kt for most of the afternoon, with frequent 20-25 kt
gusts. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Certainly can`t rule out
thunderstorms, but that will be so dependent on how tonight`s storms
evolve. Given that low confidence, will not include any TS on Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 262307
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
707 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 555 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Cluster of strong T-storms is ongoing over central Illinois, but has
yet to go severe. The air mass over the Ohio Valley remains quite
unstable and favorable to sustain convection for at least the next
few hours as this complex heads ESE toward the area. The faster end
of our current forecast timing still appears realistic, with
thunderstorms reaching Dubois County around 8 PM EDT, Louisville
Metro shortly before 10 PM, and the Lexington area around 11 PM.
This is definitely leaning faster than most of the short-term model
guidance, as they tend to underestimate the acceleration that
happens when a cold pool becomes established.

SPC has lowered the SVR risk to slight but we remain in play, with
damaging winds as the main threat.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1200+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots.  This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push through IL/IN and into KY.  The timing of this convection puts
it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and into the
Louisville metro area between 3-5Z.  Given the timing, the surface
will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.  Therefore, think
the best damaging wind potential (some potentially significant wind
gusts) will be just northwest of the LMK CWA, but still expect a
swath of potentially damaging winds to push into southern IN and
northern KY tonight, with the system likely weakening as it pushes
further into KY.  This damaging wind threat will go all the way into
the Lexington metro, but will likely be more localized in nature at
that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Main challenge is timing and impact of the convective system that
will push across SDF and LEX this evening. Even the high-resolution
models struggle with cold pool processes, and often end up too slow
in these situations. Knowing that, will stick with the previous
theme of T-storms impacting SDF 02-05Z and LEX 03-06Z. Believe that
the lowest conditions worthy of a TEMPO would be high-end MVFR
ceilings and borderline IFR visibility, but in the most intense part
of the line IFR ceilings and LIFR vis in heavy rain cannot be ruled
out. Wind gusts well in excess of 30 kt and other thunderstorm
hazards will also likely affect ground operations.

Models are hinting that overnight re-development is possible,
especially along the SW flank once the initial line of storms moves
through. Will keep VCTS in through roughly mid-morning.

Sunday will see a tight southwesterly pressure gradient as the front
makes its way south and east across Kentucky. Sustained winds will
be around 15 kt for most of the afternoon, with frequent 20-25 kt
gusts. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Certainly can`t rule out
thunderstorms, but that will be so dependent on how tonight`s storms
evolve. Given that low confidence, will not include any TS on Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262200
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
600 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 555 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Cluster of strong T-storms is ongoing over central Illinois, but has
yet to go severe. The air mass over the Ohio Valley remains quite
unstable and favorable to sustain convection for at least the next
few hours as this complex heads ESE toward the area. The faster end
of our current forecast timing still appears realistic, with
thunderstorms reaching Dubois County around 8 PM EDT, Louisville
Metro shortly before 10 PM, and the Lexington area around 11 PM.
This is definitely leaning faster than most of the short-term model
guidance, as they tend to underestimate the acceleration that
happens when a cold pool becomes established.

While SPC has lowered the SVR risk from moderate to slight, we
still remain in play with damaging winds as the main threat.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1200+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots.  This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push through IL/IN and into KY.  The timing of this convection puts
it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and into the
Louisville metro area between 3-5Z.  Given the timing, the surface
will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.  Therefore, think
the best damaging wind potential (some potentially significant wind
gusts) will be just northwest of the LMK CWA, but still expect a
swath of potentially damaging winds to push into southern IN and
northern KY tonight, with the system likely weakening as it pushes
further into KY.  This damaging wind threat will go all the way into
the Lexington metro, but will likely be more localized in nature at
that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of this afternoon,
before deteriorating conditions move in this evening and overnight
as a line of storms approaches.  For the rest of this afternoon,
expect some scattered cu and mid-level cloudiness, with southwest
winds around 10 to 15 knots, with a few higher gusts.

A line of strong to severe convection will develop to the west this
evening, pushing into the region late this evening through the
overnight hours.  Have attempted to time this convection into KSDF
and KLEX, but this timing will likely need to be refined as the
storms begin to develop this afternoon/evening.  These storms will
carry a damaging wind threat with them (especially at KSDF), so
aviation interests should continue to monitor latest forecasts.
Vsbys/cigs will also be reduced substantially in the stronger
storms.  After the initial line of storms late this evening,
additional convection is possible overnight thus will continue with
VCTS wording at KLEX and KSDF through the nighttime hours.

A cold front will bring one last round of convection through the
terminals on Sunday afternoon.  Sunday will be quite windy ahead of
the front, with WSW wind gusts pushing 25 knots at times.  Outside
of any thunderstorm activity, conditions should remain VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......RAS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD









000
FXUS63 KLMK 262200
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
600 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 555 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Cluster of strong T-storms is ongoing over central Illinois, but has
yet to go severe. The air mass over the Ohio Valley remains quite
unstable and favorable to sustain convection for at least the next
few hours as this complex heads ESE toward the area. The faster end
of our current forecast timing still appears realistic, with
thunderstorms reaching Dubois County around 8 PM EDT, Louisville
Metro shortly before 10 PM, and the Lexington area around 11 PM.
This is definitely leaning faster than most of the short-term model
guidance, as they tend to underestimate the acceleration that
happens when a cold pool becomes established.

While SPC has lowered the SVR risk from moderate to slight, we
still remain in play with damaging winds as the main threat.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1200+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots.  This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push through IL/IN and into KY.  The timing of this convection puts
it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and into the
Louisville metro area between 3-5Z.  Given the timing, the surface
will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.  Therefore, think
the best damaging wind potential (some potentially significant wind
gusts) will be just northwest of the LMK CWA, but still expect a
swath of potentially damaging winds to push into southern IN and
northern KY tonight, with the system likely weakening as it pushes
further into KY.  This damaging wind threat will go all the way into
the Lexington metro, but will likely be more localized in nature at
that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of this afternoon,
before deteriorating conditions move in this evening and overnight
as a line of storms approaches.  For the rest of this afternoon,
expect some scattered cu and mid-level cloudiness, with southwest
winds around 10 to 15 knots, with a few higher gusts.

A line of strong to severe convection will develop to the west this
evening, pushing into the region late this evening through the
overnight hours.  Have attempted to time this convection into KSDF
and KLEX, but this timing will likely need to be refined as the
storms begin to develop this afternoon/evening.  These storms will
carry a damaging wind threat with them (especially at KSDF), so
aviation interests should continue to monitor latest forecasts.
Vsbys/cigs will also be reduced substantially in the stronger
storms.  After the initial line of storms late this evening,
additional convection is possible overnight thus will continue with
VCTS wording at KLEX and KSDF through the nighttime hours.

A cold front will bring one last round of convection through the
terminals on Sunday afternoon.  Sunday will be quite windy ahead of
the front, with WSW wind gusts pushing 25 knots at times.  Outside
of any thunderstorm activity, conditions should remain VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Mesoscale......RAS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD








000
FXUS63 KLMK 261913
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1400+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots. This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds
to push through IL/IN and into KY. The expected timing of this
convection puts it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and
into the Louisville metro area between 3-5Z. Given the timing, the
surface will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.
Therefore, think the best damaging wind potential (some
potentially significant wind gusts) will be just northwest of the
LMK CWA, but still expect a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push into southern IN and northern KY tonight, with the system
likely weakening as it pushes further into KY. This damaging wind
threat will go all the way into the Lexington metro, but will
likely be more localized in nature at that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of this afternoon,
before deteriorating conditions move in this evening and overnight
as a line of storms approaches.  For the rest of this afternoon,
expect some scattered cu and mid-level cloudiness, with southwest
winds around 10 to 15 knots, with a few higher gusts.

A line of strong to severe convection will develop to the west this
evening, pushing into the region late this evening through the
overnight hours.  Have attempted to time this convection into KSDF
and KLEX, but this timing will likely need to be refined as the
storms begin to develop this afternoon/evening.  These storms will
carry a damaging wind threat with them (especially at KSDF), so
aviation interests should continue to monitor latest forecasts.
Vsbys/cigs will also be reduced substantially in the stronger
storms.  After the initial line of storms late this evening,
additional convection is possible overnight thus will continue with
VCTS wording at KLEX and KSDF through the nighttime hours.

A cold front will bring one last round of convection through the
terminals on Sunday afternoon.  Sunday will be quite windy ahead of
the front, with WSW wind gusts pushing 25 knots at times.  Outside
of any thunderstorm activity, conditions should remain VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261913
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge across
the southern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley within northwest flow
aloft.  A strong PV anomaly will dive through this northwest upper
flow, amplifying a trough over the region by the end of the short
term period.

Conditions remain quiet across the region early this afternoon, as
warm mid-level air has worked in, capping any convection.  Partly
cloudy conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the lower
90s in most spots.

An MCV/weak surface low visible on satellite imagery continues to
push east across northern MO.  Mainly elevated convection has
developed over the past few hours near this feature, as a firm cap
has limited surface-based development.  However, most short-term
hi-res model guidance including the 26/15Z HRRR, 20/12Z WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM depict surface-based convection developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across MO and western IL, then
racing east across southern IL, southern IN, and into northern
Kentucky tonight.  Given the agreement in the hi-res guidance along
with support from the 26/12Z GFS, confidence in this convection
developing has increased from previous forecasts.  As this
convection congeals, it appears likely to develop a strong cold pool
given DCAPE values of 1400+ J/kg and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-40
knots. This will allow for a swath of potentially damaging winds
to push through IL/IN and into KY. The expected timing of this
convection puts it into our southern IN counties around 2-4Z, and
into the Louisville metro area between 3-5Z. Given the timing, the
surface will be stabilizing somewhat as we lose heating.
Therefore, think the best damaging wind potential (some
potentially significant wind gusts) will be just northwest of the
LMK CWA, but still expect a swath of potentially damaging winds to
push into southern IN and northern KY tonight, with the system
likely weakening as it pushes further into KY. This damaging wind
threat will go all the way into the Lexington metro, but will
likely be more localized in nature at that point.

A westerly low-level jet of 35-40 knots will ramp up tonight in
response to the approaching PV anomaly.  Therefore, any lingering
outflow boundaries will likely remain active (especially if they can
become oriented more north-south so convergence will be maximized)
overnight.  Given the expected path of the MCS, the southwestern
flank of the outflow will be the most likely spot for renewed
activity overnight, which will likely be across southern IN and
north-central KY.  While an isolated severe risk will persist with
this later convection, think the main threat will then transition to
heavy rain.  Given PWATs near 2 inches and the potential of training
storms, some localized flash flooding does appear possible, despite
the ground being so dry in recent weeks.

Confidence begins to decrease on Sunday as it remains unclear just
how much cloud cover and lingering precipitation will be around.
However, guidance continues to suggest the atmosphere will recover
ahead of the approaching upper trough and strong surface front,
setting the stage for additional severe thunderstorm development.
0-6 km shear vectors of 40-50 knots oriented mostly orthogonal to
the surface front, along with a favorable orientation to the
right-exit region of an 80+ knot upper-level jet streak will support
initial supercell development.  The best severe threat will be on
the Kentucky side of the river, where the front will be crossing
during peak heating.  Given the drier mid-levels and steep lapse
rates, large hail will be possible in addition to damaging winds
with these storms.  An isolated tornado is not out of the question
given the potential for semi-discrete storms, but it will likely
take interaction with any lingering outflow boundaries to make up
for a lack of ambient environmental low-level SRH to produce an
isolated tornado.

Otherwise, conditions will quickly clear out Sunday evening as the
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  Drier and cooler air will
filter in, as lows Sunday night drop into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place for much of
the extended forecast period.  A very well advertised upper level
trough axis will remain parked across the eastern third of the US
through the period.  This upper trough is unseasonably deep and will
bring much below normal temperatures to our region next week.  The
below normal temperatures may tie or break record minimum
temperatures at some of our observation locations early next week.

A compact vorticity lobe may rotate around the base of the upper
trough on Monday which could bring some scattered rain showers and
clouds to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area.  After this
feature rotates out, the upper level trough remain in place across
eastern North America as the pattern generally remains blocked
aloft.  This will result in a cool northwesterly flow which looks to
keep the bulk of the week dry but with below normal temperatures.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will only top out in the middle to upper
70s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough
looks to open up slightly by Wednesday, but conditions will remain
rather dry with slightly warmer temperatures.  Highs by Wednesday
look to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 50s to around 60.

The forecast becomes increasingly more complex by later in the week
as the upper level troughing becomes a bit more established once
again over the eastern US.  Both long term deterministic runs of
the Euro and GFS both eventually develop a cut off low that holds
sway over the Ohio Valley by late in the forecast period.  The
re-amplification of the pattern will likely result in increasingly
wetter conditions as we move from Friday and into next weekend.

In general, we have preserved much of the previous forecast which
started capturing the evolving trends.  This forecast simply
increases cloud cover and slightly increases PoPs from Friday and
into Saturday.  With the expected increase in cloud cover, we also
expect that afternoon maximum temperatures will likely be a bit
cooler as well.  Highs Thursday will likely be the warmest of the
week with readings in the lower-middle 80s.  Temperatures are likely
to drop back into the upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Overnight
low temperatures look to remain cool with readings generally in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of this afternoon,
before deteriorating conditions move in this evening and overnight
as a line of storms approaches.  For the rest of this afternoon,
expect some scattered cu and mid-level cloudiness, with southwest
winds around 10 to 15 knots, with a few higher gusts.

A line of strong to severe convection will develop to the west this
evening, pushing into the region late this evening through the
overnight hours.  Have attempted to time this convection into KSDF
and KLEX, but this timing will likely need to be refined as the
storms begin to develop this afternoon/evening.  These storms will
carry a damaging wind threat with them (especially at KSDF), so
aviation interests should continue to monitor latest forecasts.
Vsbys/cigs will also be reduced substantially in the stronger
storms.  After the initial line of storms late this evening,
additional convection is possible overnight thus will continue with
VCTS wording at KLEX and KSDF through the nighttime hours.

A cold front will bring one last round of convection through the
terminals on Sunday afternoon.  Sunday will be quite windy ahead of
the front, with WSW wind gusts pushing 25 knots at times.  Outside
of any thunderstorm activity, conditions should remain VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Quick update this morning, mainly to account for ongoing convection
across Indiana.  This area of convection has formed in a region of
strong 925-850mb moisture transport.  This moisture transport is
expected to weaken through the morning hours as the LLJ dirunally
weakens, and this is already beginning to occur as storms have begun
to decrease in intensity on radar.  Still think some of this
activity may make it into the far northeastern CWA (Scott, Jefferson
Indiana counties) before it dissipates, thus have added in pops
there.  Have also increased sky cover this morning for much of
southern IN/northern KY.

The thinking for this afternoon/evening remains largely unchanged.
Still looks like we will have a lull in activity this afternoon,
before more storms arrive this evening into the overnight hours.
Will evaluate the 12Z auite of data and have updates as needed.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

Saturday:

During the day today, the weather is expected to be relatively
benign for much of the forecast area with clouds cluttering the
skies as afternoon heating kicks in. Have kept much of the area dry
with precip chances increasing as the evening hours approach.
Southwesterly winds will also increase today as high pressure exits
the region and allows for a tightening pressure gradient, thanks to
a surface low pushing its way in behind it. Throughout the day, look
for increasing warm, moist air to advect into the region, charging
the atmosphere up for what`s to come tonight. Expect highs to be
much warmer than Friday, near or slightly above 90 degrees with
higher dewpoints.

Saturday night:

As the headline indicates, severe potential for tonight appears to
be likely over southern IN and northern KY. The primary question
will be the timing of this well-advertised MCS. Hi-res models are in
general agreement of it entering the far western counties around 02Z
and plowing its way across the forecast area, affecting the
Louisville and possibly Lexington metro areas, before exiting
sometime after 06Z. The secondary question is how far east the
severe threat will reach but it appears as though the MCS will begin
its decay after it gets through the Louisville metro as it loses
some of its support. PWATs increasing to around 2 inches, increasing
low- to mid-level shear, 2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates
will all combine to create a damaging wind threat along with heavy
rainfall. These parameters look to be their highest along and north
of the I-64 corridor and west of I-65 in southern IN. A few models
are hinting at multiple rounds of weather even after the MCS has
paid a visit so have left mentionable PoPs through early Sunday but
this activity, if it occurs, should remain below severe criteria.

Temperatures will likely remain steady through the overnight period,
only dropping down into the low to mid 70s.

Sunday:

The severe threat continues into Sunday with the focus shifting to
the southern and eastern counties as a cold front approaches from
the north. However, uncertainty remains in the details of how things
will pan out as it will largely depend on early morning convection.
If the MCS does come through earlier in the evening on Saturday and
no other development occurs, then model soundings are indicating
that the damaging wind threat, heavy rainfall, and additionally hail
will be a major concern. Classic inverted V soundings can be seen in
the latest run of the GFS (00Z), especially in southern KY where the
airmass will likely not be worked over. Stay tuned for more details
as this time approaches.

Highs on Sunday are currently forecast to be a degree or two cooler
than Saturday but still reaching the upper 80s and low 90s,
especially in the south. Even with cloud cover potentially lingering
around from overnight convection, the WAA ahead of the front will be
in high gear and should push up those temps regardless. Dewpoints
will also continue to be on the high side - into the 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Showers and storms should be exiting south central and east central
KY Sun evening at the beginning of the long term period.  Some of
these storms could be strong to severe in nature Sun evening
although it looks like the cold front will move through during the
evening hours so any stronger storms should be moving out fairly
quickly Sun night.  A massive upper level trough will overtake the
Midwest bringing another round of cool air.  We`ll see one more
chance at some light rain showers over the area as energy along a
secondary front pushes through the area Monday.

Tues/Wed/Thurs will be dry and pleasant as cool Canadian high
pressure drifts south into the Midwest.  Under mostly sunny skies,
high temps will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Shower/storm chances will arrive once again for Friday and through
the weekend as the upper trough hangs over the Midwest with ridging
over the western CONUS.  A split flow pattern will try to develop
during the weekend possibly resulting in an upper low becoming cut
off over the Midwest.  Should this pattern pan out, several rain
chances will be in store with unseasonably cool temps for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of this afternoon,
before deteriorating conditions move in this evening and overnight
as a line of storms approaches.  For the rest of this afternoon,
expect some scattered cu and mid-level cloudiness, with southwest
winds around 10 to 15 knots, with a few higher gusts.

A line of strong to severe convection will develop to the west this
evening, pushing into the region late this evening through the
overnight hours.  Have attempted to time this convection into KSDF
and KLEX, but this timing will likely need to be refined as the
storms begin to develop this afternoon/evening.  These storms will
carry a damaging wind threat with them (especially at KSDF), so
aviation interests should continue to monitor latest forecasts.
Vsbys/cigs will also be reduced substantially in the stronger
storms.  After the initial line of storms late this evening,
additional convection is possible overnight thus will continue with
VCTS wording at KLEX and KSDF through the nighttime hours.

A cold front will bring one last round of convection through the
terminals on Sunday afternoon.  Sunday will be quite windy ahead of
the front, with WSW wind gusts pushing 25 knots at times.  Outside
of any thunderstorm activity, conditions should remain VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Quick update this morning, mainly to account for ongoing convection
across Indiana.  This area of convection has formed in a region of
strong 925-850mb moisture transport.  This moisture transport is
expected to weaken through the morning hours as the LLJ dirunally
weakens, and this is already beginning to occur as storms have begun
to decrease in intensity on radar.  Still think some of this
activity may make it into the far northeastern CWA (Scott, Jefferson
Indiana counties) before it dissipates, thus have added in pops
there.  Have also increased sky cover this morning for much of
southern IN/northern KY.

The thinking for this afternoon/evening remains largely unchanged.
Still looks like we will have a lull in activity this afternoon,
before more storms arrive this evening into the overnight hours.
Will evaluate the 12Z auite of data and have updates as needed.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

Saturday:

During the day today, the weather is expected to be relatively
benign for much of the forecast area with clouds cluttering the
skies as afternoon heating kicks in. Have kept much of the area dry
with precip chances increasing as the evening hours approach.
Southwesterly winds will also increase today as high pressure exits
the region and allows for a tightening pressure gradient, thanks to
a surface low pushing its way in behind it. Throughout the day, look
for increasing warm, moist air to advect into the region, charging
the atmosphere up for what`s to come tonight. Expect highs to be
much warmer than Friday, near or slightly above 90 degrees with
higher dewpoints.

Saturday night:

As the headline indicates, severe potential for tonight appears to
be likely over southern IN and northern KY. The primary question
will be the timing of this well-advertised MCS. Hi-res models are in
general agreement of it entering the far western counties around 02Z
and plowing its way across the forecast area, affecting the
Louisville and possibly Lexington metro areas, before exiting
sometime after 06Z. The secondary question is how far east the
severe threat will reach but it appears as though the MCS will begin
its decay after it gets through the Louisville metro as it loses
some of its support. PWATs increasing to around 2 inches, increasing
low- to mid-level shear, 2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates
will all combine to create a damaging wind threat along with heavy
rainfall. These parameters look to be their highest along and north
of the I-64 corridor and west of I-65 in southern IN. A few models
are hinting at multiple rounds of weather even after the MCS has
paid a visit so have left mentionable PoPs through early Sunday but
this activity, if it occurs, should remain below severe criteria.

Temperatures will likely remain steady through the overnight period,
only dropping down into the low to mid 70s.

Sunday:

The severe threat continues into Sunday with the focus shifting to
the southern and eastern counties as a cold front approaches from
the north. However, uncertainty remains in the details of how things
will pan out as it will largely depend on early morning convection.
If the MCS does come through earlier in the evening on Saturday and
no other development occurs, then model soundings are indicating
that the damaging wind threat, heavy rainfall, and additionally hail
will be a major concern. Classic inverted V soundings can be seen in
the latest run of the GFS (00Z), especially in southern KY where the
airmass will likely not be worked over. Stay tuned for more details
as this time approaches.

Highs on Sunday are currently forecast to be a degree or two cooler
than Saturday but still reaching the upper 80s and low 90s,
especially in the south. Even with cloud cover potentially lingering
around from overnight convection, the WAA ahead of the front will be
in high gear and should push up those temps regardless. Dewpoints
will also continue to be on the high side - into the 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Showers and storms should be exiting south central and east central
KY Sun evening at the beginning of the long term period.  Some of
these storms could be strong to severe in nature Sun evening
although it looks like the cold front will move through during the
evening hours so any stronger storms should be moving out fairly
quickly Sun night.  A massive upper level trough will overtake the
Midwest bringing another round of cool air.  We`ll see one more
chance at some light rain showers over the area as energy along a
secondary front pushes through the area Monday.

Tues/Wed/Thurs will be dry and pleasant as cool Canadian high
pressure drifts south into the Midwest.  Under mostly sunny skies,
high temps will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Shower/storm chances will arrive once again for Friday and through
the weekend as the upper trough hangs over the Midwest with ridging
over the western CONUS.  A split flow pattern will try to develop
during the weekend possibly resulting in an upper low becoming cut
off over the Midwest.  Should this pattern pan out, several rain
chances will be in store with unseasonably cool temps for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of this afternoon,
before deteriorating conditions move in this evening and overnight
as a line of storms approaches.  For the rest of this afternoon,
expect some scattered cu and mid-level cloudiness, with southwest
winds around 10 to 15 knots, with a few higher gusts.

A line of strong to severe convection will develop to the west this
evening, pushing into the region late this evening through the
overnight hours.  Have attempted to time this convection into KSDF
and KLEX, but this timing will likely need to be refined as the
storms begin to develop this afternoon/evening.  These storms will
carry a damaging wind threat with them (especially at KSDF), so
aviation interests should continue to monitor latest forecasts.
Vsbys/cigs will also be reduced substantially in the stronger
storms.  After the initial line of storms late this evening,
additional convection is possible overnight thus will continue with
VCTS wording at KLEX and KSDF through the nighttime hours.

A cold front will bring one last round of convection through the
terminals on Sunday afternoon.  Sunday will be quite windy ahead of
the front, with WSW wind gusts pushing 25 knots at times.  Outside
of any thunderstorm activity, conditions should remain VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261312
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
912 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Quick update this morning, mainly to account for ongoing convection
across Indiana.  This area of convection has formed in a region of
strong 925-850mb moisture transport.  This moisture transport is
expected to weaken through the morning hours as the LLJ dirunally
weakens, and this is already beginning to occur as storms have begun
to decrease in intensity on radar.  Still think some of this
activity may make it into the far northeastern CWA (Scott, Jefferson
Indiana counties) before it dissipates, thus have added in pops
there.  Have also increased sky cover this morning for much of
southern IN/northern KY.

The thinking for this afternoon/evening remains largely unchanged.
Still looks like we will have a lull in activity this afternoon,
before more storms arrive this evening into the overnight hours.
Will evaluate the 12Z auite of data and have updates as needed.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

Saturday:

During the day today, the weather is expected to be relatively
benign for much of the forecast area with clouds cluttering the
skies as afternoon heating kicks in. Have kept much of the area dry
with precip chances increasing as the evening hours approach.
Southwesterly winds will also increase today as high pressure exits
the region and allows for a tightening pressure gradient, thanks to
a surface low pushing its way in behind it. Throughout the day, look
for increasing warm, moist air to advect into the region, charging
the atmosphere up for what`s to come tonight. Expect highs to be
much warmer than Friday, near or slightly above 90 degrees with
higher dewpoints.

Saturday night:

As the headline indicates, severe potential for tonight appears to
be likely over southern IN and northern KY. The primary question
will be the timing of this well-advertised MCS. Hi-res models are in
general agreement of it entering the far western counties around 02Z
and plowing its way across the forecast area, affecting the
Louisville and possibly Lexington metro areas, before exiting
sometime after 06Z. The secondary question is how far east the
severe threat will reach but it appears as though the MCS will begin
its decay after it gets through the Louisville metro as it loses
some of its support. PWATs increasing to around 2 inches, increasing
low- to mid-level shear, 2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates
will all combine to create a damaging wind threat along with heavy
rainfall. These parameters look to be their highest along and north
of the I-64 corridor and west of I-65 in southern IN. A few models
are hinting at multiple rounds of weather even after the MCS has
paid a visit so have left mentionable PoPs through early Sunday but
this activity, if it occurs, should remain below severe criteria.

Temperatures will likely remain steady through the overnight period,
only dropping down into the low to mid 70s.

Sunday:

The severe threat continues into Sunday with the focus shifting to
the southern and eastern counties as a cold front approaches from
the north. However, uncertainty remains in the details of how things
will pan out as it will largely depend on early morning convection.
If the MCS does come through earlier in the evening on Saturday and
no other development occurs, then model soundings are indicating
that the damaging wind threat, heavy rainfall, and additionally hail
will be a major concern. Classic inverted V soundings can be seen in
the latest run of the GFS (00Z), especially in southern KY where the
airmass will likely not be worked over. Stay tuned for more details
as this time approaches.

Highs on Sunday are currently forecast to be a degree or two cooler
than Saturday but still reaching the upper 80s and low 90s,
especially in the south. Even with cloud cover potentially lingering
around from overnight convection, the WAA ahead of the front will be
in high gear and should push up those temps regardless. Dewpoints
will also continue to be on the high side - into the 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Showers and storms should be exiting south central and east central
KY Sun evening at the beginning of the long term period.  Some of
these storms could be strong to severe in nature Sun evening
although it looks like the cold front will move through during the
evening hours so any stronger storms should be moving out fairly
quickly Sun night.  A massive upper level trough will overtake the
Midwest bringing another round of cool air.  We`ll see one more
chance at some light rain showers over the area as energy along a
secondary front pushes through the area Monday.

Tues/Wed/Thurs will be dry and pleasant as cool Canadian high
pressure drifts south into the Midwest.  Under mostly sunny skies,
high temps will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Shower/storm chances will arrive once again for Friday and through
the weekend as the upper trough hangs over the Midwest with ridging
over the western CONUS.  A split flow pattern will try to develop
during the weekend possibly resulting in an upper low becoming cut
off over the Midwest.  Should this pattern pan out, several rain
chances will be in store with unseasonably cool temps for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue to prevail now through this
evening but then becomes more questionable as an MCS is expected to
develop and directly impact southern IN and northern KY. Have
continued to carry VCTS in this update for SDF given confidence in
thunderstorm activity in and around the terminal. Additionally, have
introduced VCTS mention in the LEX TAF to account for the MCS to
track into the Bluegrass region. However, less confidence exists for
the exact timing as these systems have a tendency to accelerate
beyond what the models are able to capture. For this update, have
bumped up the time frame by an hour, putting SDF in the 03Z-07Z
range and LEX in the 05Z-09Z time frame. BWG should escape direct
impact from this MCS but could still see some concerns to aviation
interests as it brushes past to the north.

By midday Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley as a surface low vies to move right on in behind an exiting
high pressure, approaching the southern Great Lakes from the Plains
by the end of this TAF period. Winds for much of Saturday are
expected to be greater than 10 knots and from the southwest, gusty
at times. Winds could briefly die down as the sun sets at SDF but
are anticipated to pick back up with the approaching MCS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261312
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
912 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Quick update this morning, mainly to account for ongoing convection
across Indiana.  This area of convection has formed in a region of
strong 925-850mb moisture transport.  This moisture transport is
expected to weaken through the morning hours as the LLJ dirunally
weakens, and this is already beginning to occur as storms have begun
to decrease in intensity on radar.  Still think some of this
activity may make it into the far northeastern CWA (Scott, Jefferson
Indiana counties) before it dissipates, thus have added in pops
there.  Have also increased sky cover this morning for much of
southern IN/northern KY.

The thinking for this afternoon/evening remains largely unchanged.
Still looks like we will have a lull in activity this afternoon,
before more storms arrive this evening into the overnight hours.
Will evaluate the 12Z auite of data and have updates as needed.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

Saturday:

During the day today, the weather is expected to be relatively
benign for much of the forecast area with clouds cluttering the
skies as afternoon heating kicks in. Have kept much of the area dry
with precip chances increasing as the evening hours approach.
Southwesterly winds will also increase today as high pressure exits
the region and allows for a tightening pressure gradient, thanks to
a surface low pushing its way in behind it. Throughout the day, look
for increasing warm, moist air to advect into the region, charging
the atmosphere up for what`s to come tonight. Expect highs to be
much warmer than Friday, near or slightly above 90 degrees with
higher dewpoints.

Saturday night:

As the headline indicates, severe potential for tonight appears to
be likely over southern IN and northern KY. The primary question
will be the timing of this well-advertised MCS. Hi-res models are in
general agreement of it entering the far western counties around 02Z
and plowing its way across the forecast area, affecting the
Louisville and possibly Lexington metro areas, before exiting
sometime after 06Z. The secondary question is how far east the
severe threat will reach but it appears as though the MCS will begin
its decay after it gets through the Louisville metro as it loses
some of its support. PWATs increasing to around 2 inches, increasing
low- to mid-level shear, 2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates
will all combine to create a damaging wind threat along with heavy
rainfall. These parameters look to be their highest along and north
of the I-64 corridor and west of I-65 in southern IN. A few models
are hinting at multiple rounds of weather even after the MCS has
paid a visit so have left mentionable PoPs through early Sunday but
this activity, if it occurs, should remain below severe criteria.

Temperatures will likely remain steady through the overnight period,
only dropping down into the low to mid 70s.

Sunday:

The severe threat continues into Sunday with the focus shifting to
the southern and eastern counties as a cold front approaches from
the north. However, uncertainty remains in the details of how things
will pan out as it will largely depend on early morning convection.
If the MCS does come through earlier in the evening on Saturday and
no other development occurs, then model soundings are indicating
that the damaging wind threat, heavy rainfall, and additionally hail
will be a major concern. Classic inverted V soundings can be seen in
the latest run of the GFS (00Z), especially in southern KY where the
airmass will likely not be worked over. Stay tuned for more details
as this time approaches.

Highs on Sunday are currently forecast to be a degree or two cooler
than Saturday but still reaching the upper 80s and low 90s,
especially in the south. Even with cloud cover potentially lingering
around from overnight convection, the WAA ahead of the front will be
in high gear and should push up those temps regardless. Dewpoints
will also continue to be on the high side - into the 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Showers and storms should be exiting south central and east central
KY Sun evening at the beginning of the long term period.  Some of
these storms could be strong to severe in nature Sun evening
although it looks like the cold front will move through during the
evening hours so any stronger storms should be moving out fairly
quickly Sun night.  A massive upper level trough will overtake the
Midwest bringing another round of cool air.  We`ll see one more
chance at some light rain showers over the area as energy along a
secondary front pushes through the area Monday.

Tues/Wed/Thurs will be dry and pleasant as cool Canadian high
pressure drifts south into the Midwest.  Under mostly sunny skies,
high temps will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Shower/storm chances will arrive once again for Friday and through
the weekend as the upper trough hangs over the Midwest with ridging
over the western CONUS.  A split flow pattern will try to develop
during the weekend possibly resulting in an upper low becoming cut
off over the Midwest.  Should this pattern pan out, several rain
chances will be in store with unseasonably cool temps for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue to prevail now through this
evening but then becomes more questionable as an MCS is expected to
develop and directly impact southern IN and northern KY. Have
continued to carry VCTS in this update for SDF given confidence in
thunderstorm activity in and around the terminal. Additionally, have
introduced VCTS mention in the LEX TAF to account for the MCS to
track into the Bluegrass region. However, less confidence exists for
the exact timing as these systems have a tendency to accelerate
beyond what the models are able to capture. For this update, have
bumped up the time frame by an hour, putting SDF in the 03Z-07Z
range and LEX in the 05Z-09Z time frame. BWG should escape direct
impact from this MCS but could still see some concerns to aviation
interests as it brushes past to the north.

By midday Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley as a surface low vies to move right on in behind an exiting
high pressure, approaching the southern Great Lakes from the Plains
by the end of this TAF period. Winds for much of Saturday are
expected to be greater than 10 knots and from the southwest, gusty
at times. Winds could briefly die down as the sun sets at SDF but
are anticipated to pick back up with the approaching MCS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

Saturday:

During the day today, the weather is expected to be relatively
benign for much of the forecast area with clouds cluttering the
skies as afternoon heating kicks in. Have kept much of the area dry
with precip chances increasing as the evening hours approach.
Southwesterly winds will also increase today as high pressure exits
the region and allows for a tightening pressure gradient, thanks to
a surface low pushing its way in behind it. Throughout the day, look
for increasing warm, moist air to advect into the region, charging
the atmosphere up for what`s to come tonight. Expect highs to be
much warmer than Friday, near or slightly above 90 degrees with
higher dewpoints.

Saturday night:

As the headline indicates, severe potential for tonight appears to
be likely over southern IN and northern KY. The primary question
will be the timing of this well-advertised MCS. Hi-res models are in
general agreement of it entering the far western counties around 02Z
and plowing its way across the forecast area, affecting the
Louisville and possibly Lexington metro areas, before exiting
sometime after 06Z. The secondary question is how far east the
severe threat will reach but it appears as though the MCS will begin
its decay after it gets through the Louisville metro as it loses
some of its support. PWATs increasing to around 2 inches, increasing
low- to mid-level shear, 2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates
will all combine to create a damaging wind threat along with heavy
rainfall. These parameters look to be their highest along and north
of the I-64 corridor and west of I-65 in southern IN. A few models
are hinting at multiple rounds of weather even after the MCS has
paid a visit so have left mentionable PoPs through early Sunday but
this activity, if it occurs, should remain below severe criteria.

Temperatures will likely remain steady through the overnight period,
only dropping down into the low to mid 70s.

Sunday:

The severe threat continues into Sunday with the focus shifting to
the southern and eastern counties as a cold front approaches from
the north. However, uncertainty remains in the details of how things
will pan out as it will largely depend on early morning convection.
If the MCS does come through earlier in the evening on Saturday and
no other development occurs, then model soundings are indicating
that the damaging wind threat, heavy rainfall, and additionally hail
will be a major concern. Classic inverted V soundings can be seen in
the latest run of the GFS (00Z), especially in southern KY where the
airmass will likely not be worked over. Stay tuned for more details
as this time approaches.

Highs on Sunday are currently forecast to be a degree or two cooler
than Saturday but still reaching the upper 80s and low 90s,
especially in the south. Even with cloud cover potentially lingering
around from overnight convection, the WAA ahead of the front will be
in high gear and should push up those temps regardless. Dewpoints
will also continue to be on the high side - into the 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Showers and storms should be exiting south central and east central
KY Sun evening at the beginning of the long term period.  Some of
these storms could be strong to severe in nature Sun evening
although it looks like the cold front will move through during the
evening hours so any stronger storms should be moving out fairly
quickly Sun night.  A massive upper level trough will overtake the
Midwest bringing another round of cool air.  We`ll see one more
chance at some light rain showers over the area as energy along a
secondary front pushes through the area Monday.

Tues/Wed/Thurs will be dry and pleasant as cool Canadian high
pressure drifts south into the Midwest.  Under mostly sunny skies,
high temps will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Shower/storm chances will arrive once again for Friday and through
the weekend as the upper trough hangs over the Midwest with ridging
over the western CONUS.  A split flow pattern will try to develop
during the weekend possibly resulting in an upper low becoming cut
off over the Midwest.  Should this pattern pan out, several rain
chances will be in store with unseasonably cool temps for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue to prevail now through this
evening but then becomes more questionable as an MCS is expected to
develop and directly impact southern IN and northern KY. Have
continued to carry VCTS in this update for SDF given confidence in
thunderstorm activity in and around the terminal. Additionally, have
introduced VCTS mention in the LEX TAF to account for the MCS to
track into the Bluegrass region. However, less confidence exists for
the exact timing as these systems have a tendency to accelerate
beyond what the models are able to capture. For this update, have
bumped up the time frame by an hour, putting SDF in the 03Z-07Z
range and LEX in the 05Z-09Z time frame. BWG should escape direct
impact from this MCS but could still see some concerns to aviation
interests as it brushes past to the north.

By midday Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley as a surface low vies to move right on in behind an exiting
high pressure, approaching the southern Great Lakes from the Plains
by the end of this TAF period. Winds for much of Saturday are
expected to be greater than 10 knots and from the southwest, gusty
at times. Winds could briefly die down as the sun sets at SDF but
are anticipated to pick back up with the approaching MCS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

Saturday:

During the day today, the weather is expected to be relatively
benign for much of the forecast area with clouds cluttering the
skies as afternoon heating kicks in. Have kept much of the area dry
with precip chances increasing as the evening hours approach.
Southwesterly winds will also increase today as high pressure exits
the region and allows for a tightening pressure gradient, thanks to
a surface low pushing its way in behind it. Throughout the day, look
for increasing warm, moist air to advect into the region, charging
the atmosphere up for what`s to come tonight. Expect highs to be
much warmer than Friday, near or slightly above 90 degrees with
higher dewpoints.

Saturday night:

As the headline indicates, severe potential for tonight appears to
be likely over southern IN and northern KY. The primary question
will be the timing of this well-advertised MCS. Hi-res models are in
general agreement of it entering the far western counties around 02Z
and plowing its way across the forecast area, affecting the
Louisville and possibly Lexington metro areas, before exiting
sometime after 06Z. The secondary question is how far east the
severe threat will reach but it appears as though the MCS will begin
its decay after it gets through the Louisville metro as it loses
some of its support. PWATs increasing to around 2 inches, increasing
low- to mid-level shear, 2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates
will all combine to create a damaging wind threat along with heavy
rainfall. These parameters look to be their highest along and north
of the I-64 corridor and west of I-65 in southern IN. A few models
are hinting at multiple rounds of weather even after the MCS has
paid a visit so have left mentionable PoPs through early Sunday but
this activity, if it occurs, should remain below severe criteria.

Temperatures will likely remain steady through the overnight period,
only dropping down into the low to mid 70s.

Sunday:

The severe threat continues into Sunday with the focus shifting to
the southern and eastern counties as a cold front approaches from
the north. However, uncertainty remains in the details of how things
will pan out as it will largely depend on early morning convection.
If the MCS does come through earlier in the evening on Saturday and
no other development occurs, then model soundings are indicating
that the damaging wind threat, heavy rainfall, and additionally hail
will be a major concern. Classic inverted V soundings can be seen in
the latest run of the GFS (00Z), especially in southern KY where the
airmass will likely not be worked over. Stay tuned for more details
as this time approaches.

Highs on Sunday are currently forecast to be a degree or two cooler
than Saturday but still reaching the upper 80s and low 90s,
especially in the south. Even with cloud cover potentially lingering
around from overnight convection, the WAA ahead of the front will be
in high gear and should push up those temps regardless. Dewpoints
will also continue to be on the high side - into the 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Showers and storms should be exiting south central and east central
KY Sun evening at the beginning of the long term period.  Some of
these storms could be strong to severe in nature Sun evening
although it looks like the cold front will move through during the
evening hours so any stronger storms should be moving out fairly
quickly Sun night.  A massive upper level trough will overtake the
Midwest bringing another round of cool air.  We`ll see one more
chance at some light rain showers over the area as energy along a
secondary front pushes through the area Monday.

Tues/Wed/Thurs will be dry and pleasant as cool Canadian high
pressure drifts south into the Midwest.  Under mostly sunny skies,
high temps will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Shower/storm chances will arrive once again for Friday and through
the weekend as the upper trough hangs over the Midwest with ridging
over the western CONUS.  A split flow pattern will try to develop
during the weekend possibly resulting in an upper low becoming cut
off over the Midwest.  Should this pattern pan out, several rain
chances will be in store with unseasonably cool temps for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue to prevail now through this
evening but then becomes more questionable as an MCS is expected to
develop and directly impact southern IN and northern KY. Have
continued to carry VCTS in this update for SDF given confidence in
thunderstorm activity in and around the terminal. Additionally, have
introduced VCTS mention in the LEX TAF to account for the MCS to
track into the Bluegrass region. However, less confidence exists for
the exact timing as these systems have a tendency to accelerate
beyond what the models are able to capture. For this update, have
bumped up the time frame by an hour, putting SDF in the 03Z-07Z
range and LEX in the 05Z-09Z time frame. BWG should escape direct
impact from this MCS but could still see some concerns to aviation
interests as it brushes past to the north.

By midday Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley as a surface low vies to move right on in behind an exiting
high pressure, approaching the southern Great Lakes from the Plains
by the end of this TAF period. Winds for much of Saturday are
expected to be greater than 10 knots and from the southwest, gusty
at times. Winds could briefly die down as the sun sets at SDF but
are anticipated to pick back up with the approaching MCS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg







000
FXUS63 KLMK 260816
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
416 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

Saturday:

During the day today, the weather is expected to be relatively
benign for much of the forecast area with clouds cluttering the
skies as afternoon heating kicks in. Have kept much of the area dry
with precip chances increasing as the evening hours approach.
Southwesterly winds will also increase today as high pressure exits
the region and allows for a tightening pressure gradient, thanks to
a surface low pushing its way in behind it. Throughout the day, look
for increasing warm, moist air to advect into the region, charging
the atmosphere up for what`s to come tonight. Expect highs to be
much warmer than Friday, near or slightly above 90 degrees with
higher dewpoints.

Saturday night:

As the headline indicates, severe potential for tonight appears to
be likely over southern IN and northern KY. The primary question
will be the timing of this well-advertised MCS. Hi-res models are in
general agreement of it entering the far western counties around 02Z
and plowing its way across the forecast area, affecting the
Louisville and possibly Lexington metro areas, before exiting
sometime after 06Z. The secondary question is how far east the
severe threat will reach but it appears as though the MCS will begin
its decay after it gets through the Louisville metro as it loses
some of its support. PWATs increasing to around 2 inches, increasing
low- to mid-level shear, 2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates
will all combine to create a damaging wind threat along with heavy
rainfall. These parameters look to be their highest north of the
I-64 corridor and west of I-65 in southern IN. A few models are
hinting at multiple rounds of weather even after the MCS has paid a
visit so have left mentionable PoPs through early Sunday but this
activity, if it occurs, should remain below severe criteria.

Temperatures will likely remain steady through the overnight period,
only dropping down into the low to mid 70s.

Sunday:

The severe threat continues into Sunday with the focus shifting to
the southern and eastern counties as a cold front approaches from
the north. However, uncertainty remains in the details of how things
will pan out as it will largely depend on early morning convection.
If the MCS does come through earlier in the evening on Saturday and
no other development occurs, then model soundings are indicating
that the damaging wind threat, heavy rainfall, and additionally hail
will be a major concern. Classic inverted V soundings can be seen in
the latest run of the GFS (00Z), especially in southern KY where the
airmass will likely not be worked over. Stay tuned for more details
as this time approaches.

Highs on Sunday are currently forecast to be a degree or two cooler
than Saturday but still reaching the upper 80s and low 90s,
especially in the south. Even with cloud cover potentially lingering
around from overnight convection, the WAA ahead of the front will be
in high gear and should push up those temps regardless. Dewpoints
will also continue to be on the high side - into the 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Showers and storms should be exiting south central and east central
KY Sun evening at the beginning of the long term period.  Some of
these storms could be strong to severe in nature Sun evening
although it looks like the cold front will move through during the
evening hours so any stronger storms should be moving out fairly
quickly Sun night.  A massive upper level trough will overtake the
Midwest bringing another round of cool air.  We`ll see one more
chance at some light rain showers over the area as energy along a
secondary front pushes through the area Monday.

Tues/Wed/Thurs will be dry and pleasant as cool Canadian high
pressure drifts south into the Midwest.  Under mostly sunny skies,
high temps will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Shower/storm chances will arrive once again for Friday and through
the weekend as the upper trough hangs over the Midwest with ridging
over the western CONUS.  A split flow pattern will try to develop
during the weekend possibly resulting in an upper low becoming cut
off over the Midwest.  Should this pattern pan out, several rain
chances will be in store with unseasonably cool temps for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail now through Saturday evening
but then becomes more questionable as an MCS is expected to develop
and directly impact southern IN and northern KY. Have introduced
VCTS in this update for SDF given growing confidence in thunderstorm
activity in the overnight period in and around the terminal.
However, less confidence exists for the exact timing as these
systems have a tendency to accelerate beyond what the models are
able to capture, especially this far out. Therefore, have
compromised based on the latest guidance with a time frame of
04Z-08Z for SDF. This would put LEX in the 06Z-10Z time frame but is
beyond this TAF period. BWG should escape direct impact from this
MCS but could still see some concerns to aviation interests as it
brushes past to the north.

Winds for the remainder of tonight will be light to calm and either
southerly or variable as high pressure exits the region. By midday
Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio Valley as
a surface low vies to move right on in, approaching the southern
Great Lakes from the Plains by the end of this TAF period. Winds for
much of Saturday are expected to be greater than 10 knots and from
the southwest, gusty at times. Winds could briefly die down as the
sun sets at SDF but are anticipated to pick back up with the
approaching MCS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260816
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
416 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Increasing confidence for severe threat tonight through Sunday...

Saturday:

During the day today, the weather is expected to be relatively
benign for much of the forecast area with clouds cluttering the
skies as afternoon heating kicks in. Have kept much of the area dry
with precip chances increasing as the evening hours approach.
Southwesterly winds will also increase today as high pressure exits
the region and allows for a tightening pressure gradient, thanks to
a surface low pushing its way in behind it. Throughout the day, look
for increasing warm, moist air to advect into the region, charging
the atmosphere up for what`s to come tonight. Expect highs to be
much warmer than Friday, near or slightly above 90 degrees with
higher dewpoints.

Saturday night:

As the headline indicates, severe potential for tonight appears to
be likely over southern IN and northern KY. The primary question
will be the timing of this well-advertised MCS. Hi-res models are in
general agreement of it entering the far western counties around 02Z
and plowing its way across the forecast area, affecting the
Louisville and possibly Lexington metro areas, before exiting
sometime after 06Z. The secondary question is how far east the
severe threat will reach but it appears as though the MCS will begin
its decay after it gets through the Louisville metro as it loses
some of its support. PWATs increasing to around 2 inches, increasing
low- to mid-level shear, 2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates
will all combine to create a damaging wind threat along with heavy
rainfall. These parameters look to be their highest north of the
I-64 corridor and west of I-65 in southern IN. A few models are
hinting at multiple rounds of weather even after the MCS has paid a
visit so have left mentionable PoPs through early Sunday but this
activity, if it occurs, should remain below severe criteria.

Temperatures will likely remain steady through the overnight period,
only dropping down into the low to mid 70s.

Sunday:

The severe threat continues into Sunday with the focus shifting to
the southern and eastern counties as a cold front approaches from
the north. However, uncertainty remains in the details of how things
will pan out as it will largely depend on early morning convection.
If the MCS does come through earlier in the evening on Saturday and
no other development occurs, then model soundings are indicating
that the damaging wind threat, heavy rainfall, and additionally hail
will be a major concern. Classic inverted V soundings can be seen in
the latest run of the GFS (00Z), especially in southern KY where the
airmass will likely not be worked over. Stay tuned for more details
as this time approaches.

Highs on Sunday are currently forecast to be a degree or two cooler
than Saturday but still reaching the upper 80s and low 90s,
especially in the south. Even with cloud cover potentially lingering
around from overnight convection, the WAA ahead of the front will be
in high gear and should push up those temps regardless. Dewpoints
will also continue to be on the high side - into the 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Showers and storms should be exiting south central and east central
KY Sun evening at the beginning of the long term period.  Some of
these storms could be strong to severe in nature Sun evening
although it looks like the cold front will move through during the
evening hours so any stronger storms should be moving out fairly
quickly Sun night.  A massive upper level trough will overtake the
Midwest bringing another round of cool air.  We`ll see one more
chance at some light rain showers over the area as energy along a
secondary front pushes through the area Monday.

Tues/Wed/Thurs will be dry and pleasant as cool Canadian high
pressure drifts south into the Midwest.  Under mostly sunny skies,
high temps will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Shower/storm chances will arrive once again for Friday and through
the weekend as the upper trough hangs over the Midwest with ridging
over the western CONUS.  A split flow pattern will try to develop
during the weekend possibly resulting in an upper low becoming cut
off over the Midwest.  Should this pattern pan out, several rain
chances will be in store with unseasonably cool temps for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail now through Saturday evening
but then becomes more questionable as an MCS is expected to develop
and directly impact southern IN and northern KY. Have introduced
VCTS in this update for SDF given growing confidence in thunderstorm
activity in the overnight period in and around the terminal.
However, less confidence exists for the exact timing as these
systems have a tendency to accelerate beyond what the models are
able to capture, especially this far out. Therefore, have
compromised based on the latest guidance with a time frame of
04Z-08Z for SDF. This would put LEX in the 06Z-10Z time frame but is
beyond this TAF period. BWG should escape direct impact from this
MCS but could still see some concerns to aviation interests as it
brushes past to the north.

Winds for the remainder of tonight will be light to calm and either
southerly or variable as high pressure exits the region. By midday
Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio Valley as
a surface low vies to move right on in, approaching the southern
Great Lakes from the Plains by the end of this TAF period. Winds for
much of Saturday are expected to be greater than 10 knots and from
the southwest, gusty at times. Winds could briefly die down as the
sun sets at SDF but are anticipated to pick back up with the
approaching MCS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg







000
FXUS63 KLMK 260532
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
132 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2014

In the near term, partly to mostly sunny skies were noted across the
region this afternoon.  Decaying MCS over MO/IL continues to drop
southeastward and will bring a thin veil of high cirrus clouds to
the region later this afternoon and evening.  Extensive area of fog
and low stratus mixed out early this afternoon and has left a
cumulus field down across portions of east-central and south-central
KY.  Combination of ASOS and Kentucky Mesonet data show afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.  The warmest
temperatures were down along the Natcher Parkway area of
west-central KY.  We anticipate quiet weather this evening and
overnight with just some high cirrus passing overhead.  Temperatures
this evening will fall back into the 70s.  Overnight minimums look
to cool into the lower-middle 60s.  We stuck very close to the
bias-corrected AllBlend guidance which has verified quite well on
minimum temperatures in the last 3-5 days.

For Saturday...the day looks to start off dry and under partly to
mostly sunny skies we`ll see temperatures warm up quite a bit more
courtesy of a southerly flow.  Temperatures should be some 7-9
degrees warmer than today with highs in the upper 80s to the lower
90s.  This is very close to the SuperBlend guidance which has been
verifying quite well on daytime maximum temperatures.

By Saturday night, a cold front will begin to approach the region
from the northwest.  Many of the numerical simulations develop a
cluster of thunderstorms across IL/IN by late afternoon/early
evening.  This is likely to organize into a linear MCS which should
plow east-southeastward across IN/OH/Northern KY and into WV.  While
the data suggests that our northeastern CWA stands the best chance
of seeing precipitation and active weather, there continues to be
some uncertainty on the westward extent of precipitation.  For now,
have kept the highest chances of PoP NE of a line from roughly
Jasper Indiana down to near Somerset KY.  We expect some sort of
strong gradient of PoP in areas southwest of that line.

Strong to severe storms are likely with wind damage and large hail
being the primary severe weather threats.  Highest chances of severe
appear to be across our northeastern CWA including the Lexington
metro area.  While there remains uncertainty with the convective
evolution, future refinements to PoP and weather will likely need to
be made in subsequent forecasts.  Temperatures Saturday night will
be mild with lows generally in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...A Conditional Severe Threat Sunday...

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term will feature an
amplified regime, with a large ridge across the western CONUS and a
digging trough across the Great Lakes.  This trough will amplify
over the Ohio Valley through the long term period, bringing
unseasonably cool temperatures by early next week.

Before the cooldown arrives, we must first visit severe potential on
Sunday.  A strong PV anomaly will be diving southeast across the
Upper Midwest early Sunday, pushing into the Ohio Valley by Sunday
night.  In response to this feature, isentropic ascent on the nose
of a 30-40 knot LLJ will likely result in MCS development overnight
Saturday (see short term section above), which will be ongoing
Sunday morning.  The placement/coverage of this convection will be
critical in any severe risk Sunday, as morning clouds/precip may
linger into the afternoon which will significantly cut down on
available instability.  The 25/12Z NAM supports the lingering MCS
idea and less of a severe threat (except some redevelopment possible
across southern KY), while the 25/12Z GFS is a bit more progressive
with the MCS and supports atmospheric recovery and the potential for
better afternoon redevelopment.

Will lean a bit more toward the GFS solution as it has some support
from the GEM.  Therefore, think there will be ongoing convection
Sunday morning, mainly across areas along and north of I-64.  This
convection should weaken with the diurnal weakening of the LLJ,
which should allow for some breaks in the clouds by the late
morning/early afternoon, especially in areas along and south of I-64
where morning convection looks less likely.  Instability should then
build by the afternoon hours to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE.  Convection
should then fire along the synoptic cold front or any lingering
outflow boundaries and push through the region Sunday afternoon into
early Sunday evening.  Initially, storms could become supercellular
along the cold front as 0-6km shear vectors (40 to 50 knots) will be
orthogonal to the frontal orientation and the region will lie within
a favorable right exit region of an 80-knot jet streak.  These
storms may then congeal a bit into bowing segments as cold pools
interact.  Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and drier mid-level
air, large hail will be possible along with damaging wind gusts.
Again, uncertainty in how this unfolds remains high and the
mesoscale details will need to be fine-tuned as confidence in the
overnight MCS evolution increases.  This system certainly has the
dynamics to produce severe weather over the Ohio Valley, but as
we`ve seen time after time this spring/summer, morning convection
tends to throw a wrench in otherwise favorable synoptic setups for
severe storms.  Stay tuned to coming forecasts.

Otherwise, drier and cooler air will work into the region overnight
Sunday into Monday as the strong front pushes southeast.  High
temperatures on Monday will struggle to get out of the 70s,
especially across north-central KY and southern IN.  There may be a
few light showers that develop under the cold core low during the
heat of the day across the Northern Bluegrass, but coverage appears
as if it will be rather isolated.

The remainder of the long term period will be dry, with cool
conditions continuing as the upper trough remains fixed over the
Ohio Valley.  Highs through the upcoming workweek will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s and lower
60s.  We may even flirt with a few record lows early Wednesday
morning.  Certainly very pleasant weather to send off
July!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail now through Saturday evening
but then becomes more questionable as an MCS is expected to develop
and directly impact southern IN and northern KY. Have introduced
VCTS in this update for SDF given growing confidence in thunderstorm
activity in the overnight period in and around the terminal.
However, less confidence exists for the exact timing as these
systems have a tendency to accelerate beyond what the models are
able to capture, especially this far out. Therefore, have
compromised based on the latest guidance with a time frame of
04Z-08Z for SDF. This would put LEX in the 06Z-10Z time frame but is
beyond this TAF period. BWG should escape direct impact from this
MCS but could still see some concerns to aviation interests as it
brushes past to the north.

Winds for the remainder of tonight will be light to calm and either
southerly or variable as high pressure exits the region. By midday
Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio Valley as
a surface low vies to move right on in, approaching the southern
Great Lakes from the Plains by the end of this TAF period. Winds for
much of Saturday are expected to be greater than 10 knots and from
the southwest, gusty at times. Winds could briefly die down as the
sun sets at SDF but are anticipated to pick back up with the
approaching MCS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260532
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
132 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2014

In the near term, partly to mostly sunny skies were noted across the
region this afternoon.  Decaying MCS over MO/IL continues to drop
southeastward and will bring a thin veil of high cirrus clouds to
the region later this afternoon and evening.  Extensive area of fog
and low stratus mixed out early this afternoon and has left a
cumulus field down across portions of east-central and south-central
KY.  Combination of ASOS and Kentucky Mesonet data show afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.  The warmest
temperatures were down along the Natcher Parkway area of
west-central KY.  We anticipate quiet weather this evening and
overnight with just some high cirrus passing overhead.  Temperatures
this evening will fall back into the 70s.  Overnight minimums look
to cool into the lower-middle 60s.  We stuck very close to the
bias-corrected AllBlend guidance which has verified quite well on
minimum temperatures in the last 3-5 days.

For Saturday...the day looks to start off dry and under partly to
mostly sunny skies we`ll see temperatures warm up quite a bit more
courtesy of a southerly flow.  Temperatures should be some 7-9
degrees warmer than today with highs in the upper 80s to the lower
90s.  This is very close to the SuperBlend guidance which has been
verifying quite well on daytime maximum temperatures.

By Saturday night, a cold front will begin to approach the region
from the northwest.  Many of the numerical simulations develop a
cluster of thunderstorms across IL/IN by late afternoon/early
evening.  This is likely to organize into a linear MCS which should
plow east-southeastward across IN/OH/Northern KY and into WV.  While
the data suggests that our northeastern CWA stands the best chance
of seeing precipitation and active weather, there continues to be
some uncertainty on the westward extent of precipitation.  For now,
have kept the highest chances of PoP NE of a line from roughly
Jasper Indiana down to near Somerset KY.  We expect some sort of
strong gradient of PoP in areas southwest of that line.

Strong to severe storms are likely with wind damage and large hail
being the primary severe weather threats.  Highest chances of severe
appear to be across our northeastern CWA including the Lexington
metro area.  While there remains uncertainty with the convective
evolution, future refinements to PoP and weather will likely need to
be made in subsequent forecasts.  Temperatures Saturday night will
be mild with lows generally in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...A Conditional Severe Threat Sunday...

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term will feature an
amplified regime, with a large ridge across the western CONUS and a
digging trough across the Great Lakes.  This trough will amplify
over the Ohio Valley through the long term period, bringing
unseasonably cool temperatures by early next week.

Before the cooldown arrives, we must first visit severe potential on
Sunday.  A strong PV anomaly will be diving southeast across the
Upper Midwest early Sunday, pushing into the Ohio Valley by Sunday
night.  In response to this feature, isentropic ascent on the nose
of a 30-40 knot LLJ will likely result in MCS development overnight
Saturday (see short term section above), which will be ongoing
Sunday morning.  The placement/coverage of this convection will be
critical in any severe risk Sunday, as morning clouds/precip may
linger into the afternoon which will significantly cut down on
available instability.  The 25/12Z NAM supports the lingering MCS
idea and less of a severe threat (except some redevelopment possible
across southern KY), while the 25/12Z GFS is a bit more progressive
with the MCS and supports atmospheric recovery and the potential for
better afternoon redevelopment.

Will lean a bit more toward the GFS solution as it has some support
from the GEM.  Therefore, think there will be ongoing convection
Sunday morning, mainly across areas along and north of I-64.  This
convection should weaken with the diurnal weakening of the LLJ,
which should allow for some breaks in the clouds by the late
morning/early afternoon, especially in areas along and south of I-64
where morning convection looks less likely.  Instability should then
build by the afternoon hours to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE.  Convection
should then fire along the synoptic cold front or any lingering
outflow boundaries and push through the region Sunday afternoon into
early Sunday evening.  Initially, storms could become supercellular
along the cold front as 0-6km shear vectors (40 to 50 knots) will be
orthogonal to the frontal orientation and the region will lie within
a favorable right exit region of an 80-knot jet streak.  These
storms may then congeal a bit into bowing segments as cold pools
interact.  Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and drier mid-level
air, large hail will be possible along with damaging wind gusts.
Again, uncertainty in how this unfolds remains high and the
mesoscale details will need to be fine-tuned as confidence in the
overnight MCS evolution increases.  This system certainly has the
dynamics to produce severe weather over the Ohio Valley, but as
we`ve seen time after time this spring/summer, morning convection
tends to throw a wrench in otherwise favorable synoptic setups for
severe storms.  Stay tuned to coming forecasts.

Otherwise, drier and cooler air will work into the region overnight
Sunday into Monday as the strong front pushes southeast.  High
temperatures on Monday will struggle to get out of the 70s,
especially across north-central KY and southern IN.  There may be a
few light showers that develop under the cold core low during the
heat of the day across the Northern Bluegrass, but coverage appears
as if it will be rather isolated.

The remainder of the long term period will be dry, with cool
conditions continuing as the upper trough remains fixed over the
Ohio Valley.  Highs through the upcoming workweek will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s and lower
60s.  We may even flirt with a few record lows early Wednesday
morning.  Certainly very pleasant weather to send off
July!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail now through Saturday evening
but then becomes more questionable as an MCS is expected to develop
and directly impact southern IN and northern KY. Have introduced
VCTS in this update for SDF given growing confidence in thunderstorm
activity in the overnight period in and around the terminal.
However, less confidence exists for the exact timing as these
systems have a tendency to accelerate beyond what the models are
able to capture, especially this far out. Therefore, have
compromised based on the latest guidance with a time frame of
04Z-08Z for SDF. This would put LEX in the 06Z-10Z time frame but is
beyond this TAF period. BWG should escape direct impact from this
MCS but could still see some concerns to aviation interests as it
brushes past to the north.

Winds for the remainder of tonight will be light to calm and either
southerly or variable as high pressure exits the region. By midday
Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio Valley as
a surface low vies to move right on in, approaching the southern
Great Lakes from the Plains by the end of this TAF period. Winds for
much of Saturday are expected to be greater than 10 knots and from
the southwest, gusty at times. Winds could briefly die down as the
sun sets at SDF but are anticipated to pick back up with the
approaching MCS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........lg







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