Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KLMK 272315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

An upper trough continues to cause light snow showers/flurries and
light rain showers/sprinkles across the area late this afternoon.
Expect this light precip to continue through the evening hours and
then dissipate after sunset.  Precip amounts still look to be next
to nothing with this very light precip.

The rest of the short term period is dry with high pressure
remaining in control at the sfc and an upper trough aloft providing
unseasonably cold temperatures for late Mar.  The temp/cloud
forecast is a bit tricky for tonight.  It`s tough to say how long
low clouds will stick around in the northerly flow/CAA regime.
Compromising with model data and NWS neighbors, gradually have
clouds taper from west to east through the night which will result
in low temps in the low to mid 20s.  If clouds clear faster than
currently forecast, valley locations and typical cold spots could
bottom out in the upper teens.

Sat will be sunny but chilly.  Northerly winds and the cold airmass
should limit highs to the low to mid 40s.  Another cold night awaits
for Sat night with low temps again dipping into the lower 20s...a
few upper teens possible.

Since hard freezes will occur both tonight and Sat night, any
outdoor plants should be covered or protected.

Record Cold Maxes for Saturday:
     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)
SDF  41 (1916)    44
LEX  37 (1947)    40
BWG  39 (1899)    46

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The surface high pressure of Canadian origin responsible for
unseasonably cold temperatures Saturday will move east of the
Commonwealth by Sunday afternoon. This, and a vigorous low moving
north of Lake Superior late in the day, will bring a decent
southwesterly return flow Sunday afternoon, resulting in a distinct
warmup after a chilly morning. After lows in the mid 20s,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound well into the 50s, albeit
with increasing afternoon cloudiness.

A cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River Sunday night with just
a chance of some light showers or sprinkles. This front is actually
of Pacific origin, meaning the air behind this boundary will almost
be warmer than the continental air ahead of it.

For the period Monday through Thursday, broad 500mb ridging and warm
temperatures centered over the northern Rockies will push east,
spreading much milder temperatures first towards the Mississippi
River, and then across the Lower Ohio Valley. Normal highs for the
first of April are in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, we should
match these pretty easily, with highs rising from the lower to mid
60s on Monday to as high as 70 from Tuesday onwards. Any light
precipitation will end Monday morning with clearing skies.

Expect mostly clear skies and dry weather Monday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to return
mid-week, but extended guidance is not in agreement when. Think the
GFS is way overdone in breaking out showers within a warm air
advection regime on Wednesday. Feel that the ECMWF and Canadian are
more on target in holding off a chance of showers until Wednesday
night or Thursday.

A cold frontal passage Thursday evening will bring a good chance of
showers and even some thunder. Distinctly cooler temperatures on tap
for Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Surface High pressure ridge from Wisconsin through eastern Oklahoma
at 22Z will drift slowly east through the TAF period. VFR cigs and
flurries will dissipate this evening as the low level moisture field
pushes off to the southeast, with only scattered clouds at most for
the remainder of the forecast time frame.  North to northwest winds
will drop to less than 7 kts by sunset 00Z and remain light through
the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........JBS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 272315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

An upper trough continues to cause light snow showers/flurries and
light rain showers/sprinkles across the area late this afternoon.
Expect this light precip to continue through the evening hours and
then dissipate after sunset.  Precip amounts still look to be next
to nothing with this very light precip.

The rest of the short term period is dry with high pressure
remaining in control at the sfc and an upper trough aloft providing
unseasonably cold temperatures for late Mar.  The temp/cloud
forecast is a bit tricky for tonight.  It`s tough to say how long
low clouds will stick around in the northerly flow/CAA regime.
Compromising with model data and NWS neighbors, gradually have
clouds taper from west to east through the night which will result
in low temps in the low to mid 20s.  If clouds clear faster than
currently forecast, valley locations and typical cold spots could
bottom out in the upper teens.

Sat will be sunny but chilly.  Northerly winds and the cold airmass
should limit highs to the low to mid 40s.  Another cold night awaits
for Sat night with low temps again dipping into the lower 20s...a
few upper teens possible.

Since hard freezes will occur both tonight and Sat night, any
outdoor plants should be covered or protected.

Record Cold Maxes for Saturday:
     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)
SDF  41 (1916)    44
LEX  37 (1947)    40
BWG  39 (1899)    46

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The surface high pressure of Canadian origin responsible for
unseasonably cold temperatures Saturday will move east of the
Commonwealth by Sunday afternoon. This, and a vigorous low moving
north of Lake Superior late in the day, will bring a decent
southwesterly return flow Sunday afternoon, resulting in a distinct
warmup after a chilly morning. After lows in the mid 20s,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound well into the 50s, albeit
with increasing afternoon cloudiness.

A cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River Sunday night with just
a chance of some light showers or sprinkles. This front is actually
of Pacific origin, meaning the air behind this boundary will almost
be warmer than the continental air ahead of it.

For the period Monday through Thursday, broad 500mb ridging and warm
temperatures centered over the northern Rockies will push east,
spreading much milder temperatures first towards the Mississippi
River, and then across the Lower Ohio Valley. Normal highs for the
first of April are in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, we should
match these pretty easily, with highs rising from the lower to mid
60s on Monday to as high as 70 from Tuesday onwards. Any light
precipitation will end Monday morning with clearing skies.

Expect mostly clear skies and dry weather Monday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to return
mid-week, but extended guidance is not in agreement when. Think the
GFS is way overdone in breaking out showers within a warm air
advection regime on Wednesday. Feel that the ECMWF and Canadian are
more on target in holding off a chance of showers until Wednesday
night or Thursday.

A cold frontal passage Thursday evening will bring a good chance of
showers and even some thunder. Distinctly cooler temperatures on tap
for Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Surface High pressure ridge from Wisconsin through eastern Oklahoma
at 22Z will drift slowly east through the TAF period. VFR cigs and
flurries will dissipate this evening as the low level moisture field
pushes off to the southeast, with only scattered clouds at most for
the remainder of the forecast time frame.  North to northwest winds
will drop to less than 7 kts by sunset 00Z and remain light through
the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........JBS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

An upper trough continues to cause light snow showers/flurries and
light rain showers/sprinkles across the area late this afternoon.
Expect this light precip to continue through the evening hours and
then dissipate after sunset.  Precip amounts still look to be next
to nothing with this very light precip.

The rest of the short term period is dry with high pressure
remaining in control at the sfc and an upper trough aloft providing
unseasonably cold temperatures for late Mar.  The temp/cloud
forecast is a bit tricky for tonight.  It`s tough to say how long
low clouds will stick around in the northerly flow/CAA regime.
Compromising with model data and NWS neighbors, gradually have
clouds taper from west to east through the night which will result
in low temps in the low to mid 20s.  If clouds clear faster than
currently forecast, valley locations and typical cold spots could
bottom out in the upper teens.

Sat will be sunny but chilly.  Northerly winds and the cold airmass
should limit highs to the low to mid 40s.  Another cold night awaits
for Sat night with low temps again dipping into the lower 20s...a
few upper teens possible.

Since hard freezes will occur both tonight and Sat night, any
outdoor plants should be covered or protected.

Record Cold Maxes for Saturday:
     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)
SDF  41 (1916)    44
LEX  37 (1947)    40
BWG  39 (1899)    46

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The surface high pressure of Canadian origin responsible for
unseasonably cold temperatures Saturday will move east of the
Commonwealth by Sunday afternoon. This, and a vigorous low moving
north of Lake Superior late in the day, will bring a decent
southwesterly return flow Sunday afternoon, resulting in a distinct
warmup after a chilly morning. After lows in the mid 20s,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound well into the 50s, albeit
with increasing afternoon cloudiness.

A cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River Sunday night with just
a chance of some light showers or sprinkles. This front is actually
of Pacific origin, meaning the air behind this boundary will almost
be warmer than the continental air ahead of it.

For the period Monday through Thursday, broad 500mb ridging and warm
temperatures centered over the northern Rockies will push east,
spreading much milder temperatures first towards the Mississippi
River, and then across the Lower Ohio Valley. Normal highs for the
first of April are in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, we should
match these pretty easily, with highs rising from the lower to mid
60s on Monday to as high as 70 from Tuesday onwards. Any light
precipitation will end Monday morning with clearing skies.

Expect mostly clear skies and dry weather Monday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to return
mid-week, but extended guidance is not in agreement when. Think the
GFS is way overdone in breaking out showers within a warm air
advection regime on Wednesday. Feel that the ECMWF and Canadian are
more on target in holding off a chance of showers until Wednesday
night or Thursday.

A cold frontal passage Thursday evening will bring a good chance of
showers and even some thunder. Distinctly cooler temperatures on tap
for Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Surface High pressure ridge from Wisconsin through eastern Oklahoma
at 22Z will drift slowly east through the TAF period. VFR cigs and
flurries will dissipate this evening as the low level moisture field
pushes off to the southeast, with only scattered clouds at most for
the remainder of the forecast time frame.  North to northwest winds
will drop to less than 7 kts by sunset 00Z and remain light through
the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........JBS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271916
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

An upper trough continues to cause light snow showers/flurries and
light rain showers/sprinkles across the area late this afternoon.
Expect this light precip to continue through the evening hours and
then dissipate after sunset.  Precip amounts still look to be next
to nothing with this very light precip.

The rest of the short term period is dry with high pressure
remaining in control at the sfc and an upper trough aloft providing
unseasonably cold temperatures for late Mar.  The temp/cloud
forecast is a bit tricky for tonight.  It`s tough to say how long
low clouds will stick around in the northerly flow/CAA regime.
Compromising with model data and NWS neighbors, gradually have
clouds taper from west to east through the night which will result
in low temps in the low to mid 20s.  If clouds clear faster than
currently forecast, valley locations and typical cold spots could
bottom out in the upper teens.

Sat will be sunny but chilly.  Northerly winds and the cold airmass
should limit highs to the low to mid 40s.  Another cold night awaits
for Sat night with low temps again dipping into the lower 20s...a
few upper teens possible.

Since hard freezes will occur both tonight and Sat night, any
outdoor plants should be covered or protected.

Record Cold Maxes for Saturday:
     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)
SDF  41 (1916)    44
LEX  37 (1947)    40
BWG  39 (1899)    46

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The surface high pressure of Canadian origin responsible for
unseasonably cold temperatures Saturday will move east of the
Commonwealth by Sunday afternoon. This, and a vigorous low moving
north of Lake Superior late in the day, will bring a decent
southwesterly return flow Sunday afternoon, resulting in a distinct
warmup after a chilly morning. After lows in the mid 20s,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound well into the 50s, albeit
with increasing afternoon cloudiness.

A cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River Sunday night with just
a chance of some light showers or sprinkles. This front is actually
of Pacific origin, meaning the air behind this boundary will almost
be warmer than the continental air ahead of it.

For the period Monday through Thursday, broad 500mb ridging and warm
temperatures centered over the northern Rockies will push east,
spreading much milder temperatures first towards the Mississippi
River, and then across the Lower Ohio Valley. Normal highs for the
first of April are in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, we should
match these pretty easily, with highs rising from the lower to mid
60s on Monday to as high as 70 from Tuesday onwards. Any light
precipitation will end Monday morning with clearing skies.

Expect mostly clear skies and dry weather Monday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to return
mid-week, but extended guidance is not in agreement when. Think the
GFS is way overdone in breaking out showers within a warm air
advection regime on Wednesday. Feel that the ECMWF and Canadian are
more on target in holding off a chance of showers until Wednesday
night or Thursday.

A cold frontal passage Thursday evening will bring a good chance of
showers and even some thunder. Distinctly cooler temperatures on tap
for Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Cigs just above MVFR/VFR thresholds will continue over the region
through this evening.  Cigs may go MVFR in a light rain or snow
shower this afternoon or early evening.  High pressure will settle
in tonight behind the passing upper trough allowing skies to become
mostly clear.  NNW Winds of 6-10 kts this afternoon will become
mainly N tomorrow morning and decrease in strength.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271916
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

An upper trough continues to cause light snow showers/flurries and
light rain showers/sprinkles across the area late this afternoon.
Expect this light precip to continue through the evening hours and
then dissipate after sunset.  Precip amounts still look to be next
to nothing with this very light precip.

The rest of the short term period is dry with high pressure
remaining in control at the sfc and an upper trough aloft providing
unseasonably cold temperatures for late Mar.  The temp/cloud
forecast is a bit tricky for tonight.  It`s tough to say how long
low clouds will stick around in the northerly flow/CAA regime.
Compromising with model data and NWS neighbors, gradually have
clouds taper from west to east through the night which will result
in low temps in the low to mid 20s.  If clouds clear faster than
currently forecast, valley locations and typical cold spots could
bottom out in the upper teens.

Sat will be sunny but chilly.  Northerly winds and the cold airmass
should limit highs to the low to mid 40s.  Another cold night awaits
for Sat night with low temps again dipping into the lower 20s...a
few upper teens possible.

Since hard freezes will occur both tonight and Sat night, any
outdoor plants should be covered or protected.

Record Cold Maxes for Saturday:
     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)
SDF  41 (1916)    44
LEX  37 (1947)    40
BWG  39 (1899)    46

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The surface high pressure of Canadian origin responsible for
unseasonably cold temperatures Saturday will move east of the
Commonwealth by Sunday afternoon. This, and a vigorous low moving
north of Lake Superior late in the day, will bring a decent
southwesterly return flow Sunday afternoon, resulting in a distinct
warmup after a chilly morning. After lows in the mid 20s,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound well into the 50s, albeit
with increasing afternoon cloudiness.

A cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River Sunday night with just
a chance of some light showers or sprinkles. This front is actually
of Pacific origin, meaning the air behind this boundary will almost
be warmer than the continental air ahead of it.

For the period Monday through Thursday, broad 500mb ridging and warm
temperatures centered over the northern Rockies will push east,
spreading much milder temperatures first towards the Mississippi
River, and then across the Lower Ohio Valley. Normal highs for the
first of April are in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, we should
match these pretty easily, with highs rising from the lower to mid
60s on Monday to as high as 70 from Tuesday onwards. Any light
precipitation will end Monday morning with clearing skies.

Expect mostly clear skies and dry weather Monday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to return
mid-week, but extended guidance is not in agreement when. Think the
GFS is way overdone in breaking out showers within a warm air
advection regime on Wednesday. Feel that the ECMWF and Canadian are
more on target in holding off a chance of showers until Wednesday
night or Thursday.

A cold frontal passage Thursday evening will bring a good chance of
showers and even some thunder. Distinctly cooler temperatures on tap
for Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Cigs just above MVFR/VFR thresholds will continue over the region
through this evening.  Cigs may go MVFR in a light rain or snow
shower this afternoon or early evening.  High pressure will settle
in tonight behind the passing upper trough allowing skies to become
mostly clear.  NNW Winds of 6-10 kts this afternoon will become
mainly N tomorrow morning and decrease in strength.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271916
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

An upper trough continues to cause light snow showers/flurries and
light rain showers/sprinkles across the area late this afternoon.
Expect this light precip to continue through the evening hours and
then dissipate after sunset.  Precip amounts still look to be next
to nothing with this very light precip.

The rest of the short term period is dry with high pressure
remaining in control at the sfc and an upper trough aloft providing
unseasonably cold temperatures for late Mar.  The temp/cloud
forecast is a bit tricky for tonight.  It`s tough to say how long
low clouds will stick around in the northerly flow/CAA regime.
Compromising with model data and NWS neighbors, gradually have
clouds taper from west to east through the night which will result
in low temps in the low to mid 20s.  If clouds clear faster than
currently forecast, valley locations and typical cold spots could
bottom out in the upper teens.

Sat will be sunny but chilly.  Northerly winds and the cold airmass
should limit highs to the low to mid 40s.  Another cold night awaits
for Sat night with low temps again dipping into the lower 20s...a
few upper teens possible.

Since hard freezes will occur both tonight and Sat night, any
outdoor plants should be covered or protected.

Record Cold Maxes for Saturday:
     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)
SDF  41 (1916)    44
LEX  37 (1947)    40
BWG  39 (1899)    46

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The surface high pressure of Canadian origin responsible for
unseasonably cold temperatures Saturday will move east of the
Commonwealth by Sunday afternoon. This, and a vigorous low moving
north of Lake Superior late in the day, will bring a decent
southwesterly return flow Sunday afternoon, resulting in a distinct
warmup after a chilly morning. After lows in the mid 20s,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound well into the 50s, albeit
with increasing afternoon cloudiness.

A cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River Sunday night with just
a chance of some light showers or sprinkles. This front is actually
of Pacific origin, meaning the air behind this boundary will almost
be warmer than the continental air ahead of it.

For the period Monday through Thursday, broad 500mb ridging and warm
temperatures centered over the northern Rockies will push east,
spreading much milder temperatures first towards the Mississippi
River, and then across the Lower Ohio Valley. Normal highs for the
first of April are in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, we should
match these pretty easily, with highs rising from the lower to mid
60s on Monday to as high as 70 from Tuesday onwards. Any light
precipitation will end Monday morning with clearing skies.

Expect mostly clear skies and dry weather Monday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to return
mid-week, but extended guidance is not in agreement when. Think the
GFS is way overdone in breaking out showers within a warm air
advection regime on Wednesday. Feel that the ECMWF and Canadian are
more on target in holding off a chance of showers until Wednesday
night or Thursday.

A cold frontal passage Thursday evening will bring a good chance of
showers and even some thunder. Distinctly cooler temperatures on tap
for Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Cigs just above MVFR/VFR thresholds will continue over the region
through this evening.  Cigs may go MVFR in a light rain or snow
shower this afternoon or early evening.  High pressure will settle
in tonight behind the passing upper trough allowing skies to become
mostly clear.  NNW Winds of 6-10 kts this afternoon will become
mainly N tomorrow morning and decrease in strength.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271916
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

An upper trough continues to cause light snow showers/flurries and
light rain showers/sprinkles across the area late this afternoon.
Expect this light precip to continue through the evening hours and
then dissipate after sunset.  Precip amounts still look to be next
to nothing with this very light precip.

The rest of the short term period is dry with high pressure
remaining in control at the sfc and an upper trough aloft providing
unseasonably cold temperatures for late Mar.  The temp/cloud
forecast is a bit tricky for tonight.  It`s tough to say how long
low clouds will stick around in the northerly flow/CAA regime.
Compromising with model data and NWS neighbors, gradually have
clouds taper from west to east through the night which will result
in low temps in the low to mid 20s.  If clouds clear faster than
currently forecast, valley locations and typical cold spots could
bottom out in the upper teens.

Sat will be sunny but chilly.  Northerly winds and the cold airmass
should limit highs to the low to mid 40s.  Another cold night awaits
for Sat night with low temps again dipping into the lower 20s...a
few upper teens possible.

Since hard freezes will occur both tonight and Sat night, any
outdoor plants should be covered or protected.

Record Cold Maxes for Saturday:
     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)
SDF  41 (1916)    44
LEX  37 (1947)    40
BWG  39 (1899)    46

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The surface high pressure of Canadian origin responsible for
unseasonably cold temperatures Saturday will move east of the
Commonwealth by Sunday afternoon. This, and a vigorous low moving
north of Lake Superior late in the day, will bring a decent
southwesterly return flow Sunday afternoon, resulting in a distinct
warmup after a chilly morning. After lows in the mid 20s,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound well into the 50s, albeit
with increasing afternoon cloudiness.

A cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River Sunday night with just
a chance of some light showers or sprinkles. This front is actually
of Pacific origin, meaning the air behind this boundary will almost
be warmer than the continental air ahead of it.

For the period Monday through Thursday, broad 500mb ridging and warm
temperatures centered over the northern Rockies will push east,
spreading much milder temperatures first towards the Mississippi
River, and then across the Lower Ohio Valley. Normal highs for the
first of April are in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, we should
match these pretty easily, with highs rising from the lower to mid
60s on Monday to as high as 70 from Tuesday onwards. Any light
precipitation will end Monday morning with clearing skies.

Expect mostly clear skies and dry weather Monday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to return
mid-week, but extended guidance is not in agreement when. Think the
GFS is way overdone in breaking out showers within a warm air
advection regime on Wednesday. Feel that the ECMWF and Canadian are
more on target in holding off a chance of showers until Wednesday
night or Thursday.

A cold frontal passage Thursday evening will bring a good chance of
showers and even some thunder. Distinctly cooler temperatures on tap
for Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Cigs just above MVFR/VFR thresholds will continue over the region
through this evening.  Cigs may go MVFR in a light rain or snow
shower this afternoon or early evening.  High pressure will settle
in tonight behind the passing upper trough allowing skies to become
mostly clear.  NNW Winds of 6-10 kts this afternoon will become
mainly N tomorrow morning and decrease in strength.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271736
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Updated the forecast as a decent area of snow showers/flurries has
developed over central Indiana and looks to move south into our
area.  The moisture will be moving into a warmer environment so
think that our area will mostly see a mix of very light rain
showers/snow showers vs mainly light snow showers/flurries that
exists to our north.  The mix may be experienced as far south as the
KY/TN border as afternoon soundings indicate moisture in the
dendritic growth zone allowing multiple ice crystals aloft, and some
of those crystals may survive to the sfc despite lower 40s sfc
temps. Some diurnal enhancement of low level clouds should increase
precip coverage so felt comfortable enough going with 20% chance of
precip area wide.  However, still think precip amounts will only be
a trace in many locations with the occasional 0.01 of inch possible.

We should be nearing our high temps soon in the low to mid 40s with
temps remaining steady or falling slightly for the rest of the
afternoon as clouds and CAA increase.

Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Overall the current forecast is in good shape.  Light precip chances
associated with a sharp upper trough passing through the region this
afternoon remain a challenge for today.  Light snow was occurring
over southern IL this morning due to forcing from the trough.
Models have not done a very good job picking up on this in QPF
fields.  Thus, relied on high-res model RH fields to come up with
the forecast for this afternoon.  Still think a 20% chance for very
light precip mainly in the form of rain will exist over central KY.
Areas along and north of the I-64 corridor may have temp profiles
cold enough for a few snowflakes or snow grains to mix in with the
rain this afternoon.  Precip amounts will generally be trace amounts
to 0.01 inch at best.   High temps still look to reach the low to
mid 40s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The surface high pressure of Canadian origin responsible for
unseasonably cold temperatures Saturday will move east of the
Commonwealth by Sunday afternoon. This, and a vigorous low moving
north of Lake Superior late in the day, will bring a decent
southwesterly return flow Sunday afternoon, resulting in a distinct
warmup after a chilly morning. After lows in the mid 20s,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound well into the 50s, albeit
with increasing afternoon cloudiness.

A cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River Sunday night with just
a chance of some light showers or sprinkles. This front is actually
of Pacific origin, meaning the air behind this boundary will almost
be warmer than the continental air ahead of it.

For the period Monday through Thursday, broad 500mb ridging and warm
temperatures centered over the northern Rockies will push east,
spreading much milder temperatures first towards the Mississippi
River, and then across the Lower Ohio Valley. Normal highs for the
first of April are in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, we should
match or exceed these pretty easily, with highs rising from the
lower to mid 60s on Monday to the lower 70s from Tuesday onwards.
Any light precipitation will end Monday morning with clearing skies.

Expect mostly clear skies and dry weather Monday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to return
mid-week, but extended guidance is not in agreement when. Think the
GFS is way overdone in breaking out showers within a warm air
advection regime on Wednesday. Feel that the ECMWF and Canadian are
more on target in holding off a chance of showers until Wednesday
night or Thursday.

A cold frontal passage Thursday evening will bring a good chance of
showers and even some thunder. Distinctly cooler temperatures on tap
for Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Cigs just above MVFR/VFR thresholds will continue over the region
through this evening.  Cigs may go MVFR in a light rain or snow
shower this afternoon or early evening.  High pressure will settle
in tonight behind the passing upper trough allowing skies to become
mostly clear.  NNW Winds of 6-10 kts this afternoon will become
mainly N tomorrow morning and decrease in strength.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271736
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Updated the forecast as a decent area of snow showers/flurries has
developed over central Indiana and looks to move south into our
area.  The moisture will be moving into a warmer environment so
think that our area will mostly see a mix of very light rain
showers/snow showers vs mainly light snow showers/flurries that
exists to our north.  The mix may be experienced as far south as the
KY/TN border as afternoon soundings indicate moisture in the
dendritic growth zone allowing multiple ice crystals aloft, and some
of those crystals may survive to the sfc despite lower 40s sfc
temps. Some diurnal enhancement of low level clouds should increase
precip coverage so felt comfortable enough going with 20% chance of
precip area wide.  However, still think precip amounts will only be
a trace in many locations with the occasional 0.01 of inch possible.

We should be nearing our high temps soon in the low to mid 40s with
temps remaining steady or falling slightly for the rest of the
afternoon as clouds and CAA increase.

Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Overall the current forecast is in good shape.  Light precip chances
associated with a sharp upper trough passing through the region this
afternoon remain a challenge for today.  Light snow was occurring
over southern IL this morning due to forcing from the trough.
Models have not done a very good job picking up on this in QPF
fields.  Thus, relied on high-res model RH fields to come up with
the forecast for this afternoon.  Still think a 20% chance for very
light precip mainly in the form of rain will exist over central KY.
Areas along and north of the I-64 corridor may have temp profiles
cold enough for a few snowflakes or snow grains to mix in with the
rain this afternoon.  Precip amounts will generally be trace amounts
to 0.01 inch at best.   High temps still look to reach the low to
mid 40s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The surface high pressure of Canadian origin responsible for
unseasonably cold temperatures Saturday will move east of the
Commonwealth by Sunday afternoon. This, and a vigorous low moving
north of Lake Superior late in the day, will bring a decent
southwesterly return flow Sunday afternoon, resulting in a distinct
warmup after a chilly morning. After lows in the mid 20s,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound well into the 50s, albeit
with increasing afternoon cloudiness.

A cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River Sunday night with just
a chance of some light showers or sprinkles. This front is actually
of Pacific origin, meaning the air behind this boundary will almost
be warmer than the continental air ahead of it.

For the period Monday through Thursday, broad 500mb ridging and warm
temperatures centered over the northern Rockies will push east,
spreading much milder temperatures first towards the Mississippi
River, and then across the Lower Ohio Valley. Normal highs for the
first of April are in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, we should
match or exceed these pretty easily, with highs rising from the
lower to mid 60s on Monday to the lower 70s from Tuesday onwards.
Any light precipitation will end Monday morning with clearing skies.

Expect mostly clear skies and dry weather Monday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to return
mid-week, but extended guidance is not in agreement when. Think the
GFS is way overdone in breaking out showers within a warm air
advection regime on Wednesday. Feel that the ECMWF and Canadian are
more on target in holding off a chance of showers until Wednesday
night or Thursday.

A cold frontal passage Thursday evening will bring a good chance of
showers and even some thunder. Distinctly cooler temperatures on tap
for Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Cigs just above MVFR/VFR thresholds will continue over the region
through this evening.  Cigs may go MVFR in a light rain or snow
shower this afternoon or early evening.  High pressure will settle
in tonight behind the passing upper trough allowing skies to become
mostly clear.  NNW Winds of 6-10 kts this afternoon will become
mainly N tomorrow morning and decrease in strength.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271736
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Updated the forecast as a decent area of snow showers/flurries has
developed over central Indiana and looks to move south into our
area.  The moisture will be moving into a warmer environment so
think that our area will mostly see a mix of very light rain
showers/snow showers vs mainly light snow showers/flurries that
exists to our north.  The mix may be experienced as far south as the
KY/TN border as afternoon soundings indicate moisture in the
dendritic growth zone allowing multiple ice crystals aloft, and some
of those crystals may survive to the sfc despite lower 40s sfc
temps. Some diurnal enhancement of low level clouds should increase
precip coverage so felt comfortable enough going with 20% chance of
precip area wide.  However, still think precip amounts will only be
a trace in many locations with the occasional 0.01 of inch possible.

We should be nearing our high temps soon in the low to mid 40s with
temps remaining steady or falling slightly for the rest of the
afternoon as clouds and CAA increase.

Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Overall the current forecast is in good shape.  Light precip chances
associated with a sharp upper trough passing through the region this
afternoon remain a challenge for today.  Light snow was occurring
over southern IL this morning due to forcing from the trough.
Models have not done a very good job picking up on this in QPF
fields.  Thus, relied on high-res model RH fields to come up with
the forecast for this afternoon.  Still think a 20% chance for very
light precip mainly in the form of rain will exist over central KY.
Areas along and north of the I-64 corridor may have temp profiles
cold enough for a few snowflakes or snow grains to mix in with the
rain this afternoon.  Precip amounts will generally be trace amounts
to 0.01 inch at best.   High temps still look to reach the low to
mid 40s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The surface high pressure of Canadian origin responsible for
unseasonably cold temperatures Saturday will move east of the
Commonwealth by Sunday afternoon. This, and a vigorous low moving
north of Lake Superior late in the day, will bring a decent
southwesterly return flow Sunday afternoon, resulting in a distinct
warmup after a chilly morning. After lows in the mid 20s,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound well into the 50s, albeit
with increasing afternoon cloudiness.

A cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River Sunday night with just
a chance of some light showers or sprinkles. This front is actually
of Pacific origin, meaning the air behind this boundary will almost
be warmer than the continental air ahead of it.

For the period Monday through Thursday, broad 500mb ridging and warm
temperatures centered over the northern Rockies will push east,
spreading much milder temperatures first towards the Mississippi
River, and then across the Lower Ohio Valley. Normal highs for the
first of April are in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, we should
match or exceed these pretty easily, with highs rising from the
lower to mid 60s on Monday to the lower 70s from Tuesday onwards.
Any light precipitation will end Monday morning with clearing skies.

Expect mostly clear skies and dry weather Monday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to return
mid-week, but extended guidance is not in agreement when. Think the
GFS is way overdone in breaking out showers within a warm air
advection regime on Wednesday. Feel that the ECMWF and Canadian are
more on target in holding off a chance of showers until Wednesday
night or Thursday.

A cold frontal passage Thursday evening will bring a good chance of
showers and even some thunder. Distinctly cooler temperatures on tap
for Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Cigs just above MVFR/VFR thresholds will continue over the region
through this evening.  Cigs may go MVFR in a light rain or snow
shower this afternoon or early evening.  High pressure will settle
in tonight behind the passing upper trough allowing skies to become
mostly clear.  NNW Winds of 6-10 kts this afternoon will become
mainly N tomorrow morning and decrease in strength.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271723
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Updated the forecast as a decent area of snow showers/flurries has
developed over central Indiana and looks to move south into our
area.  The moisture will be moving into a warmer environment so
think that our area will mostly see a mix of very light rain
showers/snow showers vs mainly light snow showers/flurries that
exists to our north.  The mix may be experienced as far south as the
KY/TN border as afternoon soundings indicate moisture in the
dendritic growth zone allowing multiple ice crystals aloft, and some
of those crystals may survive to the sfc despite lower 40s sfc
temps. Some diurnal enhancement of low level clouds should increase
precip coverage so felt comfortable enough going with 20% chance of
precip area wide.  However, still think precip amounts will only be
a trace in many locations with the occasional 0.01 of inch possible.

We should be nearing our high temps soon in the low to mid 40s with
temps remaining steady or falling slightly for the rest of the
afternoon as clouds and CAA increase.

Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Overall the current forecast is in good shape.  Light precip chances
associated with a sharp upper trough passing through the region this
afternoon remain a challenge for today.  Light snow was occurring
over southern IL this morning due to forcing from the trough.
Models have not done a very good job picking up on this in QPF
fields.  Thus, relied on high-res model RH fields to come up with
the forecast for this afternoon.  Still think a 20% chance for very
light precip mainly in the form of rain will exist over central KY.
Areas along and north of the I-64 corridor may have temp profiles
cold enough for a few snowflakes or snow grains to mix in with the
rain this afternoon.  Precip amounts will generally be trace amounts
to 0.01 inch at best.   High temps still look to reach the low to
mid 40s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The surface high pressure of Canadian origin responsible for
unseasonably cold temperatures Saturday will move east of the
Commonwealth by Sunday afternoon. This, and a vigorous low moving
north of Lake Superior late in the day, will bring a decent
southwesterly return flow Sunday afternoon, resulting in a distinct
warmup after a chilly morning. After lows in the mid 20s,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound well into the 50s, albeit
with increasing afternoon cloudiness.

A cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River Sunday night with just
a chance of some light showers or sprinkles. This front is actually
of Pacific origin, meaning the air behind this boundary will almost
be warmer than the continental air ahead of it.

For the period Monday through Thursday, broad 500mb ridging and warm
temperatures centered over the northern Rockies will push east,
spreading much milder temperatures first towards the Mississippi
River, and then across the Lower Ohio Valley. Normal highs for the
first of April are in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, we should
match or exceed these pretty easily, with highs rising from the
lower to mid 60s on Monday to the lower 70s from Tuesday onwards.
Any light precipitation will end Monday morning with clearing skies.

Expect mostly clear skies and dry weather Monday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to return
mid-week, but extended guidance is not in agreement when. Think the
GFS is way overdone in breaking out showers within a warm air
advection regime on Wednesday. Feel that the ECMWF and Canadian are
more on target in holding off a chance of showers until Wednesday
night or Thursday.

A cold frontal passage Thursday evening will bring a good chance of
showers and even some thunder. Distinctly cooler temperatures on tap
for Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have some lower-end VFR vsby`s out there this hour, and may see a
couple hours below especially at BWG. Otherwise, an upper level
disturbance still looks to move into the region this afternoon,
bringing additional cumulus clouds as well as some isolated showers.
Think the best chance is down at KBWG, so have put vicinity wording
in for now this afternoon. Ceilings may briefly go into the MVFR
range as that moisture moves into the other sites as well. Expect
better conditions tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271723
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Updated the forecast as a decent area of snow showers/flurries has
developed over central Indiana and looks to move south into our
area.  The moisture will be moving into a warmer environment so
think that our area will mostly see a mix of very light rain
showers/snow showers vs mainly light snow showers/flurries that
exists to our north.  The mix may be experienced as far south as the
KY/TN border as afternoon soundings indicate moisture in the
dendritic growth zone allowing multiple ice crystals aloft, and some
of those crystals may survive to the sfc despite lower 40s sfc
temps. Some diurnal enhancement of low level clouds should increase
precip coverage so felt comfortable enough going with 20% chance of
precip area wide.  However, still think precip amounts will only be
a trace in many locations with the occasional 0.01 of inch possible.

We should be nearing our high temps soon in the low to mid 40s with
temps remaining steady or falling slightly for the rest of the
afternoon as clouds and CAA increase.

Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Overall the current forecast is in good shape.  Light precip chances
associated with a sharp upper trough passing through the region this
afternoon remain a challenge for today.  Light snow was occurring
over southern IL this morning due to forcing from the trough.
Models have not done a very good job picking up on this in QPF
fields.  Thus, relied on high-res model RH fields to come up with
the forecast for this afternoon.  Still think a 20% chance for very
light precip mainly in the form of rain will exist over central KY.
Areas along and north of the I-64 corridor may have temp profiles
cold enough for a few snowflakes or snow grains to mix in with the
rain this afternoon.  Precip amounts will generally be trace amounts
to 0.01 inch at best.   High temps still look to reach the low to
mid 40s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The surface high pressure of Canadian origin responsible for
unseasonably cold temperatures Saturday will move east of the
Commonwealth by Sunday afternoon. This, and a vigorous low moving
north of Lake Superior late in the day, will bring a decent
southwesterly return flow Sunday afternoon, resulting in a distinct
warmup after a chilly morning. After lows in the mid 20s,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound well into the 50s, albeit
with increasing afternoon cloudiness.

A cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River Sunday night with just
a chance of some light showers or sprinkles. This front is actually
of Pacific origin, meaning the air behind this boundary will almost
be warmer than the continental air ahead of it.

For the period Monday through Thursday, broad 500mb ridging and warm
temperatures centered over the northern Rockies will push east,
spreading much milder temperatures first towards the Mississippi
River, and then across the Lower Ohio Valley. Normal highs for the
first of April are in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, we should
match or exceed these pretty easily, with highs rising from the
lower to mid 60s on Monday to the lower 70s from Tuesday onwards.
Any light precipitation will end Monday morning with clearing skies.

Expect mostly clear skies and dry weather Monday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to return
mid-week, but extended guidance is not in agreement when. Think the
GFS is way overdone in breaking out showers within a warm air
advection regime on Wednesday. Feel that the ECMWF and Canadian are
more on target in holding off a chance of showers until Wednesday
night or Thursday.

A cold frontal passage Thursday evening will bring a good chance of
showers and even some thunder. Distinctly cooler temperatures on tap
for Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have some lower-end VFR vsby`s out there this hour, and may see a
couple hours below especially at BWG. Otherwise, an upper level
disturbance still looks to move into the region this afternoon,
bringing additional cumulus clouds as well as some isolated showers.
Think the best chance is down at KBWG, so have put vicinity wording
in for now this afternoon. Ceilings may briefly go into the MVFR
range as that moisture moves into the other sites as well. Expect
better conditions tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271723
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Updated the forecast as a decent area of snow showers/flurries has
developed over central Indiana and looks to move south into our
area.  The moisture will be moving into a warmer environment so
think that our area will mostly see a mix of very light rain
showers/snow showers vs mainly light snow showers/flurries that
exists to our north.  The mix may be experienced as far south as the
KY/TN border as afternoon soundings indicate moisture in the
dendritic growth zone allowing multiple ice crystals aloft, and some
of those crystals may survive to the sfc despite lower 40s sfc
temps. Some diurnal enhancement of low level clouds should increase
precip coverage so felt comfortable enough going with 20% chance of
precip area wide.  However, still think precip amounts will only be
a trace in many locations with the occasional 0.01 of inch possible.

We should be nearing our high temps soon in the low to mid 40s with
temps remaining steady or falling slightly for the rest of the
afternoon as clouds and CAA increase.

Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Overall the current forecast is in good shape.  Light precip chances
associated with a sharp upper trough passing through the region this
afternoon remain a challenge for today.  Light snow was occurring
over southern IL this morning due to forcing from the trough.
Models have not done a very good job picking up on this in QPF
fields.  Thus, relied on high-res model RH fields to come up with
the forecast for this afternoon.  Still think a 20% chance for very
light precip mainly in the form of rain will exist over central KY.
Areas along and north of the I-64 corridor may have temp profiles
cold enough for a few snowflakes or snow grains to mix in with the
rain this afternoon.  Precip amounts will generally be trace amounts
to 0.01 inch at best.   High temps still look to reach the low to
mid 40s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The surface high pressure of Canadian origin responsible for
unseasonably cold temperatures Saturday will move east of the
Commonwealth by Sunday afternoon. This, and a vigorous low moving
north of Lake Superior late in the day, will bring a decent
southwesterly return flow Sunday afternoon, resulting in a distinct
warmup after a chilly morning. After lows in the mid 20s,
temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound well into the 50s, albeit
with increasing afternoon cloudiness.

A cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River Sunday night with just
a chance of some light showers or sprinkles. This front is actually
of Pacific origin, meaning the air behind this boundary will almost
be warmer than the continental air ahead of it.

For the period Monday through Thursday, broad 500mb ridging and warm
temperatures centered over the northern Rockies will push east,
spreading much milder temperatures first towards the Mississippi
River, and then across the Lower Ohio Valley. Normal highs for the
first of April are in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, we should
match or exceed these pretty easily, with highs rising from the
lower to mid 60s on Monday to the lower 70s from Tuesday onwards.
Any light precipitation will end Monday morning with clearing skies.

Expect mostly clear skies and dry weather Monday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to return
mid-week, but extended guidance is not in agreement when. Think the
GFS is way overdone in breaking out showers within a warm air
advection regime on Wednesday. Feel that the ECMWF and Canadian are
more on target in holding off a chance of showers until Wednesday
night or Thursday.

A cold frontal passage Thursday evening will bring a good chance of
showers and even some thunder. Distinctly cooler temperatures on tap
for Friday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have some lower-end VFR vsby`s out there this hour, and may see a
couple hours below especially at BWG. Otherwise, an upper level
disturbance still looks to move into the region this afternoon,
bringing additional cumulus clouds as well as some isolated showers.
Think the best chance is down at KBWG, so have put vicinity wording
in for now this afternoon. Ceilings may briefly go into the MVFR
range as that moisture moves into the other sites as well. Expect
better conditions tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271344
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
944 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Overall the current forecast is in good shape.  Light precip chances
associated with a sharp upper trough passing through the region this
afternoon remain a challenge for today.  Light snow was occurring
over southern IL this morning due to forcing from the trough.
Models have not done a very good job picking up on this in QPF
fields.  Thus, relied on high-res model RH fields to come up with
the forecast for this afternoon.  Still think a 20% chance for very
light precip mainly in the form of rain will exist over central KY.
Areas along and north of the I-64 corridor may have temp profiles
cold enough for a few snowflakes or snow grains to mix in with the
rain this afternoon.  Precip amounts will generally be trace amounts
to 0.01 inch at best.   High temps still look to reach the low to
mid 40s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The long term will begin with dry weather and unseasonably cold
temperatures a high pressure slides across the region. Aloft
northwesterly flow will continue into mid week then transition to
more a more zonal flow.

As mentioned above, surface high pressure will slide across the
region overnight. This high will be east of the forecast area by
daybreak Sunday with winds shifting to southerly. This should keep
temperatures from completely bottoming out. Regardless, a hard
freeze looks likely with lows in the lower to mid 20s.

A cold front will begin to approach from the northwest on Sunday and
move through the area Monday morning. Southwesterly winds will
advect in warmer air Sunday with temps rising into the 50s. A few
showers will be possible across southern IN late in the afternoon
Sunday with the best chance for rain overnight Sunday into Monday.
Moisture return doesn`t look that great with this system, so will
continue to carry scattered showers as opposed to likely coverage.

Some lingering showers in the east will move out by mid day Monday.
High pressure will once again bring dry weather through Tuesday
night. The next front looks to move through on Thursday sometime.
Ahead of this, southerly winds will once again usher in warmer and
moister air. A shortwave moving through during the day on Wednesday
could spark some showers or thunderstorms as soundings indicate we
could see weak surface based instability developing. Showers will
increase along and ahead of the front Wednesday night with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible. This precip will move out
Thursday.

Temperatures next week will be above normal Tuesday through
Thursday. Highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows will
range from the lower 40s Tuesday morning to the lower 50s by
Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have some lower-end VFR vsby`s out there this hour, and may see a
couple hours below especially at BWG. Otherwise, an upper level
disturbance still looks to move into the region this afternoon,
bringing additional cumulus clouds as well as some isolated showers.
Think the best chance is down at KBWG, so have put vicinity wording
in for now this afternoon. Ceilings may briefly go into the MVFR
range as that moisture moves into the other sites as well. Expect
better conditions tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271344
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
944 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Overall the current forecast is in good shape.  Light precip chances
associated with a sharp upper trough passing through the region this
afternoon remain a challenge for today.  Light snow was occurring
over southern IL this morning due to forcing from the trough.
Models have not done a very good job picking up on this in QPF
fields.  Thus, relied on high-res model RH fields to come up with
the forecast for this afternoon.  Still think a 20% chance for very
light precip mainly in the form of rain will exist over central KY.
Areas along and north of the I-64 corridor may have temp profiles
cold enough for a few snowflakes or snow grains to mix in with the
rain this afternoon.  Precip amounts will generally be trace amounts
to 0.01 inch at best.   High temps still look to reach the low to
mid 40s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The long term will begin with dry weather and unseasonably cold
temperatures a high pressure slides across the region. Aloft
northwesterly flow will continue into mid week then transition to
more a more zonal flow.

As mentioned above, surface high pressure will slide across the
region overnight. This high will be east of the forecast area by
daybreak Sunday with winds shifting to southerly. This should keep
temperatures from completely bottoming out. Regardless, a hard
freeze looks likely with lows in the lower to mid 20s.

A cold front will begin to approach from the northwest on Sunday and
move through the area Monday morning. Southwesterly winds will
advect in warmer air Sunday with temps rising into the 50s. A few
showers will be possible across southern IN late in the afternoon
Sunday with the best chance for rain overnight Sunday into Monday.
Moisture return doesn`t look that great with this system, so will
continue to carry scattered showers as opposed to likely coverage.

Some lingering showers in the east will move out by mid day Monday.
High pressure will once again bring dry weather through Tuesday
night. The next front looks to move through on Thursday sometime.
Ahead of this, southerly winds will once again usher in warmer and
moister air. A shortwave moving through during the day on Wednesday
could spark some showers or thunderstorms as soundings indicate we
could see weak surface based instability developing. Showers will
increase along and ahead of the front Wednesday night with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible. This precip will move out
Thursday.

Temperatures next week will be above normal Tuesday through
Thursday. Highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows will
range from the lower 40s Tuesday morning to the lower 50s by
Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have some lower-end VFR vsby`s out there this hour, and may see a
couple hours below especially at BWG. Otherwise, an upper level
disturbance still looks to move into the region this afternoon,
bringing additional cumulus clouds as well as some isolated showers.
Think the best chance is down at KBWG, so have put vicinity wording
in for now this afternoon. Ceilings may briefly go into the MVFR
range as that moisture moves into the other sites as well. Expect
better conditions tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The long term will begin with dry weather and unseasonably cold
temperatures a high pressure slides across the region. Aloft
northwesterly flow will continue into mid week then transition to
more a more zonal flow.

As mentioned above, surface high pressure will slide across the
region overnight. This high will be east of the forecast area by
daybreak Sunday with winds shifting to southerly. This should keep
temperatures from completely bottoming out. Regardless, a hard
freeze looks likely with lows in the lower to mid 20s.

A cold front will begin to approach from the northwest on Sunday and
move through the area Monday morning. Southwesterly winds will
advect in warmer air Sunday with temps rising into the 50s. A few
showers will be possible across southern IN late in the afternoon
Sunday with the best chance for rain overnight Sunday into Monday.
Moisture return doesn`t look that great with this system, so will
continue to carry scattered showers as opposed to likely coverage.

Some lingering showers in the east will move out by mid day Monday.
High pressure will once again bring dry weather through Tuesday
night. The next front looks to move through on Thursday sometime.
Ahead of this, southerly winds will once again usher in warmer and
moister air. A shortwave moving through during the day on Wednesday
could spark some showers or thunderstorms as soundings indicate we
could see weak surface based instability developing. Showers will
increase along and ahead of the front Wednesday night with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible. This precip will move out
Thursday.

Temperatures next week will be above normal Tuesday through
Thursday. Highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows will
range from the lower 40s Tuesday morning to the lower 50s by
Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have some lower-end VFR vsby`s out there this hour, and may see a
couple hours below especially at BWG. Otherwise, an upper level
disturbance still looks to move into the region this afternoon,
bringing additional cumulus clouds as well as some isolated showers.
Think the best chance is down at KBWG, so have put vicinity wording
in for now this afternoon. Ceilings may briefly go into the MVFR
range as that moisture moves into the other sites as well. Expect
better conditions tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The long term will begin with dry weather and unseasonably cold
temperatures a high pressure slides across the region. Aloft
northwesterly flow will continue into mid week then transition to
more a more zonal flow.

As mentioned above, surface high pressure will slide across the
region overnight. This high will be east of the forecast area by
daybreak Sunday with winds shifting to southerly. This should keep
temperatures from completely bottoming out. Regardless, a hard
freeze looks likely with lows in the lower to mid 20s.

A cold front will begin to approach from the northwest on Sunday and
move through the area Monday morning. Southwesterly winds will
advect in warmer air Sunday with temps rising into the 50s. A few
showers will be possible across southern IN late in the afternoon
Sunday with the best chance for rain overnight Sunday into Monday.
Moisture return doesn`t look that great with this system, so will
continue to carry scattered showers as opposed to likely coverage.

Some lingering showers in the east will move out by mid day Monday.
High pressure will once again bring dry weather through Tuesday
night. The next front looks to move through on Thursday sometime.
Ahead of this, southerly winds will once again usher in warmer and
moister air. A shortwave moving through during the day on Wednesday
could spark some showers or thunderstorms as soundings indicate we
could see weak surface based instability developing. Showers will
increase along and ahead of the front Wednesday night with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible. This precip will move out
Thursday.

Temperatures next week will be above normal Tuesday through
Thursday. Highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows will
range from the lower 40s Tuesday morning to the lower 50s by
Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have some lower-end VFR vsby`s out there this hour, and may see a
couple hours below especially at BWG. Otherwise, an upper level
disturbance still looks to move into the region this afternoon,
bringing additional cumulus clouds as well as some isolated showers.
Think the best chance is down at KBWG, so have put vicinity wording
in for now this afternoon. Ceilings may briefly go into the MVFR
range as that moisture moves into the other sites as well. Expect
better conditions tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270702
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The long term will begin with dry weather and unseasonably cold
temperatures a high pressure slides across the region. Aloft
northwesterly flow will continue into mid week then transition to
more a more zonal flow.

As mentioned above, surface high pressure will slide across the
region overnight. This high will be east of the forecast area by
daybreak Sunday with winds shifting to southerly. This should keep
temperatures from completely bottoming out. Regardless, a hard
freeze looks likely with lows in the lower to mid 20s.

A cold front will begin to approach from the northwest on Sunday and
move through the area Monday morning. Southwesterly winds will
advect in warmer air Sunday with temps rising into the 50s. A few
showers will be possible across southern IN late in the afternoon
Sunday with the best chance for rain overnight Sunday into Monday.
Moisture return doesn`t look that great with this system, so will
continue to carry scattered showers as opposed to likely coverage.

Some lingering showers in the east will move out by mid day Monday.
High pressure will once again bring dry weather through Tuesday
night. The next front looks to move through on Thursday sometime.
Ahead of this, southerly winds will once again usher in warmer and
moister air. A shortwave moving through during the day on Wednesday
could spark some showers or thunderstorms as soundings indicate we
could see weak surface based instability developing. Showers will
increase along and ahead of the front Wednesday night with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible. This precip will move out
Thursday.

Temperatures next week will be above normal Tuesday through
Thursday. Highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows will
range from the lower 40s Tuesday morning to the lower 50s by
Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have a general north to northwest wind out there now, continuing to
bring in some drier air. Till that air gets in here though, we have
a few VFR-based clouds out there, and even some light restrictions
in vsby at LEX. An upper level disturbance still looks to move into
the region this afternoon, bringing additional cumulus clouds as
well as some isolated showers. The chance still is too low to put
into the TAFs just yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270702
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The long term will begin with dry weather and unseasonably cold
temperatures a high pressure slides across the region. Aloft
northwesterly flow will continue into mid week then transition to
more a more zonal flow.

As mentioned above, surface high pressure will slide across the
region overnight. This high will be east of the forecast area by
daybreak Sunday with winds shifting to southerly. This should keep
temperatures from completely bottoming out. Regardless, a hard
freeze looks likely with lows in the lower to mid 20s.

A cold front will begin to approach from the northwest on Sunday and
move through the area Monday morning. Southwesterly winds will
advect in warmer air Sunday with temps rising into the 50s. A few
showers will be possible across southern IN late in the afternoon
Sunday with the best chance for rain overnight Sunday into Monday.
Moisture return doesn`t look that great with this system, so will
continue to carry scattered showers as opposed to likely coverage.

Some lingering showers in the east will move out by mid day Monday.
High pressure will once again bring dry weather through Tuesday
night. The next front looks to move through on Thursday sometime.
Ahead of this, southerly winds will once again usher in warmer and
moister air. A shortwave moving through during the day on Wednesday
could spark some showers or thunderstorms as soundings indicate we
could see weak surface based instability developing. Showers will
increase along and ahead of the front Wednesday night with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible. This precip will move out
Thursday.

Temperatures next week will be above normal Tuesday through
Thursday. Highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows will
range from the lower 40s Tuesday morning to the lower 50s by
Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have a general north to northwest wind out there now, continuing to
bring in some drier air. Till that air gets in here though, we have
a few VFR-based clouds out there, and even some light restrictions
in vsby at LEX. An upper level disturbance still looks to move into
the region this afternoon, bringing additional cumulus clouds as
well as some isolated showers. The chance still is too low to put
into the TAFs just yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270702
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The long term will begin with dry weather and unseasonably cold
temperatures a high pressure slides across the region. Aloft
northwesterly flow will continue into mid week then transition to
more a more zonal flow.

As mentioned above, surface high pressure will slide across the
region overnight. This high will be east of the forecast area by
daybreak Sunday with winds shifting to southerly. This should keep
temperatures from completely bottoming out. Regardless, a hard
freeze looks likely with lows in the lower to mid 20s.

A cold front will begin to approach from the northwest on Sunday and
move through the area Monday morning. Southwesterly winds will
advect in warmer air Sunday with temps rising into the 50s. A few
showers will be possible across southern IN late in the afternoon
Sunday with the best chance for rain overnight Sunday into Monday.
Moisture return doesn`t look that great with this system, so will
continue to carry scattered showers as opposed to likely coverage.

Some lingering showers in the east will move out by mid day Monday.
High pressure will once again bring dry weather through Tuesday
night. The next front looks to move through on Thursday sometime.
Ahead of this, southerly winds will once again usher in warmer and
moister air. A shortwave moving through during the day on Wednesday
could spark some showers or thunderstorms as soundings indicate we
could see weak surface based instability developing. Showers will
increase along and ahead of the front Wednesday night with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible. This precip will move out
Thursday.

Temperatures next week will be above normal Tuesday through
Thursday. Highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows will
range from the lower 40s Tuesday morning to the lower 50s by
Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have a general north to northwest wind out there now, continuing to
bring in some drier air. Till that air gets in here though, we have
a few VFR-based clouds out there, and even some light restrictions
in vsby at LEX. An upper level disturbance still looks to move into
the region this afternoon, bringing additional cumulus clouds as
well as some isolated showers. The chance still is too low to put
into the TAFs just yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270702
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

A deep upper trough will cross the region today. Water vapor shows
this feature nicely. Forecast soundings still show some sharper
lapse rates as this feature crosses us, as well as a brief period of
ice crystal growth. Timing for this crossing looks to be during peak
heating, so the chance for snow mixing in with rain looks to be
limited. Precipitable water is pretty low with this system as well,
so the chance for measurable precipitation consequently is low.

As for temperatures today, we should see the 40s for most locations.
Skies should clear out quickly as the trough axis shifts to our
east. As northwest winds pour in colder air, most sites should see a
hard freeze by daybreak Saturday, with lows in the lower 20s.
Surface high pressure will become centered over the region by the
end of the day Saturday, but despite sunshine highs look to struggle
to reach 40 degrees, near record cold maxes for the day.

Record Cold Maxes for Next Couple of Days:
     Mar. 27   Forecast     Mar. 28   Forecast
     (year)                 (year)
SDF  32 (1947) 44           41 (1916) 42
LEX  29 (1947) 43           37 (1947) 39
BWG  33 (1947) 46           39 (1899) 44

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

The long term will begin with dry weather and unseasonably cold
temperatures a high pressure slides across the region. Aloft
northwesterly flow will continue into mid week then transition to
more a more zonal flow.

As mentioned above, surface high pressure will slide across the
region overnight. This high will be east of the forecast area by
daybreak Sunday with winds shifting to southerly. This should keep
temperatures from completely bottoming out. Regardless, a hard
freeze looks likely with lows in the lower to mid 20s.

A cold front will begin to approach from the northwest on Sunday and
move through the area Monday morning. Southwesterly winds will
advect in warmer air Sunday with temps rising into the 50s. A few
showers will be possible across southern IN late in the afternoon
Sunday with the best chance for rain overnight Sunday into Monday.
Moisture return doesn`t look that great with this system, so will
continue to carry scattered showers as opposed to likely coverage.

Some lingering showers in the east will move out by mid day Monday.
High pressure will once again bring dry weather through Tuesday
night. The next front looks to move through on Thursday sometime.
Ahead of this, southerly winds will once again usher in warmer and
moister air. A shortwave moving through during the day on Wednesday
could spark some showers or thunderstorms as soundings indicate we
could see weak surface based instability developing. Showers will
increase along and ahead of the front Wednesday night with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible. This precip will move out
Thursday.

Temperatures next week will be above normal Tuesday through
Thursday. Highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows will
range from the lower 40s Tuesday morning to the lower 50s by
Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have a general north to northwest wind out there now, continuing to
bring in some drier air. Till that air gets in here though, we have
a few VFR-based clouds out there, and even some light restrictions
in vsby at LEX. An upper level disturbance still looks to move into
the region this afternoon, bringing additional cumulus clouds as
well as some isolated showers. The chance still is too low to put
into the TAFs just yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270524
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
124 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Forecast is in good shape, no significant changes necessary.  Light
rain should be moving out of the east in the next hour or two.
Clouds will decrease overnight.  Despite some clearing skies and a
damp ground, dry air coming in on north breezes at and near the
surface should prevent fog from forming overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Main forecast concerns are precipitation trends through this evening
then the unseasonably cold conditions heading into this weekend.

Mid afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure across West
Virginia with a pronounced cold front stretching back from through
eastern Kentucky into central Tennessee. Northwest winds and post
frontal stratus encompass much of the area as readings have
steadily fallen since morning. Much of the area is in the 40s.

The upper levels are characterized by a digging trough with its axis
from St Louis to Dallas. A PV anomaly is noted in water vapor
imagery near Arkansas and this is helping to fuel additional
showers across southwest Kentucky. A 130 kt jet lies north of the
area, putting the Ohio Valley favorably within the right entrance
region. Until the upper level forcing passes, scattered showers
will pass through central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Areas along
and west of I-65 should see an end around 6 pm, then between 6 and 9
pm for areas east. Rainfall amounts look to be 1/4 inch or less.

RH fields in the low levels show clouds will be on the decrease
overnight as drier northwest air arrives. We`ll have a steady north
gradient but plan on lows to fall into the 30s region wide. For
Friday, still looking like a brisk, unseasonably cold day with highs
again stuck in the 40s. The low level lapse rates and cold air aloft
will likely result in partly/mostly cloudy cumulus clouds by late
morning through the afternoon. 26.12z and hi-res models still
suggesting light showers could develop with precipitation mainly
falling as rain but could not rule out a snow or sleet pellet at
times.

Canadian high pressure builds in tomorrow night though its axis
remains to our west for much of the night. Northerly winds will keep
the boundary layer stirred, holding lows up though mid 20s region
wide still looks good. Would not be surprised if some outlying,
sheltered locations drop into the upper teens briefly.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Canadian surface high and upper trof over the eastern CONUS will
keep the first half of the weekend unseasonably cool. While it is
difficult to discount the nearly-April sun angle, 850mb temps only
recover to -8C by 00Z Sunday. This yields a max temp forecast in the
upper 30s/lower 40s, just skirting the cooler end of MOS guidance.
Saturday night will be a matter of just how efficiently we radiate
before developing return flow starts to mix the boundary layer. If
radiational cooling is maximized we could be as cold as Friday
night, if not a bit colder. This forecast in the lower/mid 20s is
close to guidance, and is the warmest likely scenario
notwithstanding the possibility that temps start rising before
daybreak Sunday if the SE return flow is strong enough.

Sunday will be a transitional day between the cold/dry weekend and a
milder, progressive pattern heading into next week. Return flow will
allow temps to recover well into the 50s, which is still below
normal this time of year. Clouds will increase late in the day as a
weak front approaches, but will keep the POPs out of the forecast
until Sunday night.

Progressive pattern next week will begin as mainly NW flow but will
flatten out around mid-week. Have pretty much followed the latest
ECMWF, which is slower with the Sunday night cold front and drier
with the disturbance that passes to our north and east late
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Timing differences aside, model precip
appears overdone especially with the first front, as depth of
moisture is lacking. Will limit POPs to chance on Sunday night into
Monday. Expect the second front to also go through dry.

A more robust system will develop by Wednesday night and Thursday,
but model solutions still differ. GFS appears dominated by the
southern stream while ECMWF favors the northern stream, but by then
the upper pattern is flat enough that we do tap enough Gulf moisture
and warm advection to support precip chances. Still not about to go
likely 6-7 days out but will go high-end chance on Wednesday night.
Wednesday`s 20-30 POP is even a bit generous, but wanted to wait for
more continuity and/or agreement in the models before removing the
mention. Temps above normal Mon-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have a general north to northwest wind out there now, continuing to
bring in some drier air. Till that air gets in here though, we have
a few VFR-based clouds out there, and even some light restrictions
in vsby at LEX. An upper level disturbance still looks to move into
the region this afternoon, bringing additional cumulus clouds as
well as some isolated showers. The chance still is too low to put
into the TAFs just yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270524
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
124 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Forecast is in good shape, no significant changes necessary.  Light
rain should be moving out of the east in the next hour or two.
Clouds will decrease overnight.  Despite some clearing skies and a
damp ground, dry air coming in on north breezes at and near the
surface should prevent fog from forming overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Main forecast concerns are precipitation trends through this evening
then the unseasonably cold conditions heading into this weekend.

Mid afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure across West
Virginia with a pronounced cold front stretching back from through
eastern Kentucky into central Tennessee. Northwest winds and post
frontal stratus encompass much of the area as readings have
steadily fallen since morning. Much of the area is in the 40s.

The upper levels are characterized by a digging trough with its axis
from St Louis to Dallas. A PV anomaly is noted in water vapor
imagery near Arkansas and this is helping to fuel additional
showers across southwest Kentucky. A 130 kt jet lies north of the
area, putting the Ohio Valley favorably within the right entrance
region. Until the upper level forcing passes, scattered showers
will pass through central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Areas along
and west of I-65 should see an end around 6 pm, then between 6 and 9
pm for areas east. Rainfall amounts look to be 1/4 inch or less.

RH fields in the low levels show clouds will be on the decrease
overnight as drier northwest air arrives. We`ll have a steady north
gradient but plan on lows to fall into the 30s region wide. For
Friday, still looking like a brisk, unseasonably cold day with highs
again stuck in the 40s. The low level lapse rates and cold air aloft
will likely result in partly/mostly cloudy cumulus clouds by late
morning through the afternoon. 26.12z and hi-res models still
suggesting light showers could develop with precipitation mainly
falling as rain but could not rule out a snow or sleet pellet at
times.

Canadian high pressure builds in tomorrow night though its axis
remains to our west for much of the night. Northerly winds will keep
the boundary layer stirred, holding lows up though mid 20s region
wide still looks good. Would not be surprised if some outlying,
sheltered locations drop into the upper teens briefly.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Canadian surface high and upper trof over the eastern CONUS will
keep the first half of the weekend unseasonably cool. While it is
difficult to discount the nearly-April sun angle, 850mb temps only
recover to -8C by 00Z Sunday. This yields a max temp forecast in the
upper 30s/lower 40s, just skirting the cooler end of MOS guidance.
Saturday night will be a matter of just how efficiently we radiate
before developing return flow starts to mix the boundary layer. If
radiational cooling is maximized we could be as cold as Friday
night, if not a bit colder. This forecast in the lower/mid 20s is
close to guidance, and is the warmest likely scenario
notwithstanding the possibility that temps start rising before
daybreak Sunday if the SE return flow is strong enough.

Sunday will be a transitional day between the cold/dry weekend and a
milder, progressive pattern heading into next week. Return flow will
allow temps to recover well into the 50s, which is still below
normal this time of year. Clouds will increase late in the day as a
weak front approaches, but will keep the POPs out of the forecast
until Sunday night.

Progressive pattern next week will begin as mainly NW flow but will
flatten out around mid-week. Have pretty much followed the latest
ECMWF, which is slower with the Sunday night cold front and drier
with the disturbance that passes to our north and east late
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Timing differences aside, model precip
appears overdone especially with the first front, as depth of
moisture is lacking. Will limit POPs to chance on Sunday night into
Monday. Expect the second front to also go through dry.

A more robust system will develop by Wednesday night and Thursday,
but model solutions still differ. GFS appears dominated by the
southern stream while ECMWF favors the northern stream, but by then
the upper pattern is flat enough that we do tap enough Gulf moisture
and warm advection to support precip chances. Still not about to go
likely 6-7 days out but will go high-end chance on Wednesday night.
Wednesday`s 20-30 POP is even a bit generous, but wanted to wait for
more continuity and/or agreement in the models before removing the
mention. Temps above normal Mon-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have a general north to northwest wind out there now, continuing to
bring in some drier air. Till that air gets in here though, we have
a few VFR-based clouds out there, and even some light restrictions
in vsby at LEX. An upper level disturbance still looks to move into
the region this afternoon, bringing additional cumulus clouds as
well as some isolated showers. The chance still is too low to put
into the TAFs just yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270524
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
124 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Forecast is in good shape, no significant changes necessary.  Light
rain should be moving out of the east in the next hour or two.
Clouds will decrease overnight.  Despite some clearing skies and a
damp ground, dry air coming in on north breezes at and near the
surface should prevent fog from forming overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Main forecast concerns are precipitation trends through this evening
then the unseasonably cold conditions heading into this weekend.

Mid afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure across West
Virginia with a pronounced cold front stretching back from through
eastern Kentucky into central Tennessee. Northwest winds and post
frontal stratus encompass much of the area as readings have
steadily fallen since morning. Much of the area is in the 40s.

The upper levels are characterized by a digging trough with its axis
from St Louis to Dallas. A PV anomaly is noted in water vapor
imagery near Arkansas and this is helping to fuel additional
showers across southwest Kentucky. A 130 kt jet lies north of the
area, putting the Ohio Valley favorably within the right entrance
region. Until the upper level forcing passes, scattered showers
will pass through central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Areas along
and west of I-65 should see an end around 6 pm, then between 6 and 9
pm for areas east. Rainfall amounts look to be 1/4 inch or less.

RH fields in the low levels show clouds will be on the decrease
overnight as drier northwest air arrives. We`ll have a steady north
gradient but plan on lows to fall into the 30s region wide. For
Friday, still looking like a brisk, unseasonably cold day with highs
again stuck in the 40s. The low level lapse rates and cold air aloft
will likely result in partly/mostly cloudy cumulus clouds by late
morning through the afternoon. 26.12z and hi-res models still
suggesting light showers could develop with precipitation mainly
falling as rain but could not rule out a snow or sleet pellet at
times.

Canadian high pressure builds in tomorrow night though its axis
remains to our west for much of the night. Northerly winds will keep
the boundary layer stirred, holding lows up though mid 20s region
wide still looks good. Would not be surprised if some outlying,
sheltered locations drop into the upper teens briefly.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Canadian surface high and upper trof over the eastern CONUS will
keep the first half of the weekend unseasonably cool. While it is
difficult to discount the nearly-April sun angle, 850mb temps only
recover to -8C by 00Z Sunday. This yields a max temp forecast in the
upper 30s/lower 40s, just skirting the cooler end of MOS guidance.
Saturday night will be a matter of just how efficiently we radiate
before developing return flow starts to mix the boundary layer. If
radiational cooling is maximized we could be as cold as Friday
night, if not a bit colder. This forecast in the lower/mid 20s is
close to guidance, and is the warmest likely scenario
notwithstanding the possibility that temps start rising before
daybreak Sunday if the SE return flow is strong enough.

Sunday will be a transitional day between the cold/dry weekend and a
milder, progressive pattern heading into next week. Return flow will
allow temps to recover well into the 50s, which is still below
normal this time of year. Clouds will increase late in the day as a
weak front approaches, but will keep the POPs out of the forecast
until Sunday night.

Progressive pattern next week will begin as mainly NW flow but will
flatten out around mid-week. Have pretty much followed the latest
ECMWF, which is slower with the Sunday night cold front and drier
with the disturbance that passes to our north and east late
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Timing differences aside, model precip
appears overdone especially with the first front, as depth of
moisture is lacking. Will limit POPs to chance on Sunday night into
Monday. Expect the second front to also go through dry.

A more robust system will develop by Wednesday night and Thursday,
but model solutions still differ. GFS appears dominated by the
southern stream while ECMWF favors the northern stream, but by then
the upper pattern is flat enough that we do tap enough Gulf moisture
and warm advection to support precip chances. Still not about to go
likely 6-7 days out but will go high-end chance on Wednesday night.
Wednesday`s 20-30 POP is even a bit generous, but wanted to wait for
more continuity and/or agreement in the models before removing the
mention. Temps above normal Mon-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Have a general north to northwest wind out there now, continuing to
bring in some drier air. Till that air gets in here though, we have
a few VFR-based clouds out there, and even some light restrictions
in vsby at LEX. An upper level disturbance still looks to move into
the region this afternoon, bringing additional cumulus clouds as
well as some isolated showers. The chance still is too low to put
into the TAFs just yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270128
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
928 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Forecast is in good shape, no significant changes necessary.  Light
rain should be moving out of the east in the next hour or two.
Clouds will decrease overnight.  Despite some clearing skies and a
damp ground, dry air coming in on north breezes at and near the
surface should prevent fog from forming overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Main forecast concerns are precipitation trends through this evening
then the unseasonably cold conditions heading into this weekend.

Mid afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure across West
Virginia with a pronounced cold front stretching back from through
eastern Kentucky into central Tennessee. Northwest winds and post
frontal stratus encompass much of the area as readings have
steadily fallen since morning. Much of the area is in the 40s.

The upper levels are characterized by a digging trough with its axis
from St Louis to Dallas. A PV anomaly is noted in water vapor
imagery near Arkansas and this is helping to fuel additional
showers across southwest Kentucky. A 130 kt jet lies north of the
area, putting the Ohio Valley favorably within the right entrance
region. Until the upper level forcing passes, scattered showers
will pass through central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Areas along
and west of I-65 should see an end around 6 pm, then between 6 and 9
pm for areas east. Rainfall amounts look to be 1/4 inch or less.

RH fields in the low levels show clouds will be on the decrease
overnight as drier northwest air arrives. We`ll have a steady north
gradient but plan on lows to fall into the 30s region wide. For
Friday, still looking like a brisk, unseasonably cold day with highs
again stuck in the 40s. The low level lapse rates and cold air aloft
will likely result in partly/mostly cloudy cumulus clouds by late
morning through the afternoon. 26.12z and hi-res models still
suggesting light showers could develop with precipitation mainly
falling as rain but could not rule out a snow or sleet pellet at
times.

Canadian high pressure builds in tomorrow night though its axis
remains to our west for much of the night. Northerly winds will keep
the boundary layer stirred, holding lows up though mid 20s region
wide still looks good. Would not be surprised if some outlying,
sheltered locations drop into the upper teens briefly.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Canadian surface high and upper trof over the eastern CONUS will
keep the first half of the weekend unseasonably cool. While it is
difficult to discount the nearly-April sun angle, 850mb temps only
recover to -8C by 00Z Sunday. This yields a max temp forecast in the
upper 30s/lower 40s, just skirting the cooler end of MOS guidance.
Saturday night will be a matter of just how efficiently we radiate
before developing return flow starts to mix the boundary layer. If
radiational cooling is maximized we could be as cold as Friday
night, if not a bit colder. This forecast in the lower/mid 20s is
close to guidance, and is the warmest likely scenario
notwithstanding the possibility that temps start rising before
daybreak Sunday if the SE return flow is strong enough.

Sunday will be a transitional day between the cold/dry weekend and a
milder, progressive pattern heading into next week. Return flow will
allow temps to recover well into the 50s, which is still below
normal this time of year. Clouds will increase late in the day as a
weak front approaches, but will keep the POPs out of the forecast
until Sunday night.

Progressive pattern next week will begin as mainly NW flow but will
flatten out around mid-week. Have pretty much followed the latest
ECMWF, which is slower with the Sunday night cold front and drier
with the disturbance that passes to our north and east late
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Timing differences aside, model precip
appears overdone especially with the first front, as depth of
moisture is lacking. Will limit POPs to chance on Sunday night into
Monday. Expect the second front to also go through dry.

A more robust system will develop by Wednesday night and Thursday,
but model solutions still differ. GFS appears dominated by the
southern stream while ECMWF favors the northern stream, but by then
the upper pattern is flat enough that we do tap enough Gulf moisture
and warm advection to support precip chances. Still not about to go
likely 6-7 days out but will go high-end chance on Wednesday night.
Wednesday`s 20-30 POP is even a bit generous, but wanted to wait for
more continuity and/or agreement in the models before removing the
mention. Temps above normal Mon-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Dry air is rushing in on northwest winds and helping to scour out
the low clouds from west to east. This will continue this evening
and should result in VFR ceilings for the bulk of the overnight
hours.

An upper level disturbance coming in from the northwest tomorrow,
accompanied by a fair amount of moisture and interacting with steep
low level lapse rates, will result in widespread cu development and
scattered showers, especially in the afternoon.  Shower chances at
any one airport are small enough to leave out of the TAFs for
now...LEX stands the best shot at seeing one.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270128
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
928 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Forecast is in good shape, no significant changes necessary.  Light
rain should be moving out of the east in the next hour or two.
Clouds will decrease overnight.  Despite some clearing skies and a
damp ground, dry air coming in on north breezes at and near the
surface should prevent fog from forming overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Main forecast concerns are precipitation trends through this evening
then the unseasonably cold conditions heading into this weekend.

Mid afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure across West
Virginia with a pronounced cold front stretching back from through
eastern Kentucky into central Tennessee. Northwest winds and post
frontal stratus encompass much of the area as readings have
steadily fallen since morning. Much of the area is in the 40s.

The upper levels are characterized by a digging trough with its axis
from St Louis to Dallas. A PV anomaly is noted in water vapor
imagery near Arkansas and this is helping to fuel additional
showers across southwest Kentucky. A 130 kt jet lies north of the
area, putting the Ohio Valley favorably within the right entrance
region. Until the upper level forcing passes, scattered showers
will pass through central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Areas along
and west of I-65 should see an end around 6 pm, then between 6 and 9
pm for areas east. Rainfall amounts look to be 1/4 inch or less.

RH fields in the low levels show clouds will be on the decrease
overnight as drier northwest air arrives. We`ll have a steady north
gradient but plan on lows to fall into the 30s region wide. For
Friday, still looking like a brisk, unseasonably cold day with highs
again stuck in the 40s. The low level lapse rates and cold air aloft
will likely result in partly/mostly cloudy cumulus clouds by late
morning through the afternoon. 26.12z and hi-res models still
suggesting light showers could develop with precipitation mainly
falling as rain but could not rule out a snow or sleet pellet at
times.

Canadian high pressure builds in tomorrow night though its axis
remains to our west for much of the night. Northerly winds will keep
the boundary layer stirred, holding lows up though mid 20s region
wide still looks good. Would not be surprised if some outlying,
sheltered locations drop into the upper teens briefly.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Canadian surface high and upper trof over the eastern CONUS will
keep the first half of the weekend unseasonably cool. While it is
difficult to discount the nearly-April sun angle, 850mb temps only
recover to -8C by 00Z Sunday. This yields a max temp forecast in the
upper 30s/lower 40s, just skirting the cooler end of MOS guidance.
Saturday night will be a matter of just how efficiently we radiate
before developing return flow starts to mix the boundary layer. If
radiational cooling is maximized we could be as cold as Friday
night, if not a bit colder. This forecast in the lower/mid 20s is
close to guidance, and is the warmest likely scenario
notwithstanding the possibility that temps start rising before
daybreak Sunday if the SE return flow is strong enough.

Sunday will be a transitional day between the cold/dry weekend and a
milder, progressive pattern heading into next week. Return flow will
allow temps to recover well into the 50s, which is still below
normal this time of year. Clouds will increase late in the day as a
weak front approaches, but will keep the POPs out of the forecast
until Sunday night.

Progressive pattern next week will begin as mainly NW flow but will
flatten out around mid-week. Have pretty much followed the latest
ECMWF, which is slower with the Sunday night cold front and drier
with the disturbance that passes to our north and east late
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Timing differences aside, model precip
appears overdone especially with the first front, as depth of
moisture is lacking. Will limit POPs to chance on Sunday night into
Monday. Expect the second front to also go through dry.

A more robust system will develop by Wednesday night and Thursday,
but model solutions still differ. GFS appears dominated by the
southern stream while ECMWF favors the northern stream, but by then
the upper pattern is flat enough that we do tap enough Gulf moisture
and warm advection to support precip chances. Still not about to go
likely 6-7 days out but will go high-end chance on Wednesday night.
Wednesday`s 20-30 POP is even a bit generous, but wanted to wait for
more continuity and/or agreement in the models before removing the
mention. Temps above normal Mon-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Dry air is rushing in on northwest winds and helping to scour out
the low clouds from west to east. This will continue this evening
and should result in VFR ceilings for the bulk of the overnight
hours.

An upper level disturbance coming in from the northwest tomorrow,
accompanied by a fair amount of moisture and interacting with steep
low level lapse rates, will result in widespread cu development and
scattered showers, especially in the afternoon.  Shower chances at
any one airport are small enough to leave out of the TAFs for
now...LEX stands the best shot at seeing one.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270128
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
928 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Forecast is in good shape, no significant changes necessary.  Light
rain should be moving out of the east in the next hour or two.
Clouds will decrease overnight.  Despite some clearing skies and a
damp ground, dry air coming in on north breezes at and near the
surface should prevent fog from forming overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Main forecast concerns are precipitation trends through this evening
then the unseasonably cold conditions heading into this weekend.

Mid afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure across West
Virginia with a pronounced cold front stretching back from through
eastern Kentucky into central Tennessee. Northwest winds and post
frontal stratus encompass much of the area as readings have
steadily fallen since morning. Much of the area is in the 40s.

The upper levels are characterized by a digging trough with its axis
from St Louis to Dallas. A PV anomaly is noted in water vapor
imagery near Arkansas and this is helping to fuel additional
showers across southwest Kentucky. A 130 kt jet lies north of the
area, putting the Ohio Valley favorably within the right entrance
region. Until the upper level forcing passes, scattered showers
will pass through central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Areas along
and west of I-65 should see an end around 6 pm, then between 6 and 9
pm for areas east. Rainfall amounts look to be 1/4 inch or less.

RH fields in the low levels show clouds will be on the decrease
overnight as drier northwest air arrives. We`ll have a steady north
gradient but plan on lows to fall into the 30s region wide. For
Friday, still looking like a brisk, unseasonably cold day with highs
again stuck in the 40s. The low level lapse rates and cold air aloft
will likely result in partly/mostly cloudy cumulus clouds by late
morning through the afternoon. 26.12z and hi-res models still
suggesting light showers could develop with precipitation mainly
falling as rain but could not rule out a snow or sleet pellet at
times.

Canadian high pressure builds in tomorrow night though its axis
remains to our west for much of the night. Northerly winds will keep
the boundary layer stirred, holding lows up though mid 20s region
wide still looks good. Would not be surprised if some outlying,
sheltered locations drop into the upper teens briefly.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Canadian surface high and upper trof over the eastern CONUS will
keep the first half of the weekend unseasonably cool. While it is
difficult to discount the nearly-April sun angle, 850mb temps only
recover to -8C by 00Z Sunday. This yields a max temp forecast in the
upper 30s/lower 40s, just skirting the cooler end of MOS guidance.
Saturday night will be a matter of just how efficiently we radiate
before developing return flow starts to mix the boundary layer. If
radiational cooling is maximized we could be as cold as Friday
night, if not a bit colder. This forecast in the lower/mid 20s is
close to guidance, and is the warmest likely scenario
notwithstanding the possibility that temps start rising before
daybreak Sunday if the SE return flow is strong enough.

Sunday will be a transitional day between the cold/dry weekend and a
milder, progressive pattern heading into next week. Return flow will
allow temps to recover well into the 50s, which is still below
normal this time of year. Clouds will increase late in the day as a
weak front approaches, but will keep the POPs out of the forecast
until Sunday night.

Progressive pattern next week will begin as mainly NW flow but will
flatten out around mid-week. Have pretty much followed the latest
ECMWF, which is slower with the Sunday night cold front and drier
with the disturbance that passes to our north and east late
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Timing differences aside, model precip
appears overdone especially with the first front, as depth of
moisture is lacking. Will limit POPs to chance on Sunday night into
Monday. Expect the second front to also go through dry.

A more robust system will develop by Wednesday night and Thursday,
but model solutions still differ. GFS appears dominated by the
southern stream while ECMWF favors the northern stream, but by then
the upper pattern is flat enough that we do tap enough Gulf moisture
and warm advection to support precip chances. Still not about to go
likely 6-7 days out but will go high-end chance on Wednesday night.
Wednesday`s 20-30 POP is even a bit generous, but wanted to wait for
more continuity and/or agreement in the models before removing the
mention. Temps above normal Mon-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Dry air is rushing in on northwest winds and helping to scour out
the low clouds from west to east. This will continue this evening
and should result in VFR ceilings for the bulk of the overnight
hours.

An upper level disturbance coming in from the northwest tomorrow,
accompanied by a fair amount of moisture and interacting with steep
low level lapse rates, will result in widespread cu development and
scattered showers, especially in the afternoon.  Shower chances at
any one airport are small enough to leave out of the TAFs for
now...LEX stands the best shot at seeing one.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270128
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
928 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Forecast is in good shape, no significant changes necessary.  Light
rain should be moving out of the east in the next hour or two.
Clouds will decrease overnight.  Despite some clearing skies and a
damp ground, dry air coming in on north breezes at and near the
surface should prevent fog from forming overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Main forecast concerns are precipitation trends through this evening
then the unseasonably cold conditions heading into this weekend.

Mid afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure across West
Virginia with a pronounced cold front stretching back from through
eastern Kentucky into central Tennessee. Northwest winds and post
frontal stratus encompass much of the area as readings have
steadily fallen since morning. Much of the area is in the 40s.

The upper levels are characterized by a digging trough with its axis
from St Louis to Dallas. A PV anomaly is noted in water vapor
imagery near Arkansas and this is helping to fuel additional
showers across southwest Kentucky. A 130 kt jet lies north of the
area, putting the Ohio Valley favorably within the right entrance
region. Until the upper level forcing passes, scattered showers
will pass through central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Areas along
and west of I-65 should see an end around 6 pm, then between 6 and 9
pm for areas east. Rainfall amounts look to be 1/4 inch or less.

RH fields in the low levels show clouds will be on the decrease
overnight as drier northwest air arrives. We`ll have a steady north
gradient but plan on lows to fall into the 30s region wide. For
Friday, still looking like a brisk, unseasonably cold day with highs
again stuck in the 40s. The low level lapse rates and cold air aloft
will likely result in partly/mostly cloudy cumulus clouds by late
morning through the afternoon. 26.12z and hi-res models still
suggesting light showers could develop with precipitation mainly
falling as rain but could not rule out a snow or sleet pellet at
times.

Canadian high pressure builds in tomorrow night though its axis
remains to our west for much of the night. Northerly winds will keep
the boundary layer stirred, holding lows up though mid 20s region
wide still looks good. Would not be surprised if some outlying,
sheltered locations drop into the upper teens briefly.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Canadian surface high and upper trof over the eastern CONUS will
keep the first half of the weekend unseasonably cool. While it is
difficult to discount the nearly-April sun angle, 850mb temps only
recover to -8C by 00Z Sunday. This yields a max temp forecast in the
upper 30s/lower 40s, just skirting the cooler end of MOS guidance.
Saturday night will be a matter of just how efficiently we radiate
before developing return flow starts to mix the boundary layer. If
radiational cooling is maximized we could be as cold as Friday
night, if not a bit colder. This forecast in the lower/mid 20s is
close to guidance, and is the warmest likely scenario
notwithstanding the possibility that temps start rising before
daybreak Sunday if the SE return flow is strong enough.

Sunday will be a transitional day between the cold/dry weekend and a
milder, progressive pattern heading into next week. Return flow will
allow temps to recover well into the 50s, which is still below
normal this time of year. Clouds will increase late in the day as a
weak front approaches, but will keep the POPs out of the forecast
until Sunday night.

Progressive pattern next week will begin as mainly NW flow but will
flatten out around mid-week. Have pretty much followed the latest
ECMWF, which is slower with the Sunday night cold front and drier
with the disturbance that passes to our north and east late
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Timing differences aside, model precip
appears overdone especially with the first front, as depth of
moisture is lacking. Will limit POPs to chance on Sunday night into
Monday. Expect the second front to also go through dry.

A more robust system will develop by Wednesday night and Thursday,
but model solutions still differ. GFS appears dominated by the
southern stream while ECMWF favors the northern stream, but by then
the upper pattern is flat enough that we do tap enough Gulf moisture
and warm advection to support precip chances. Still not about to go
likely 6-7 days out but will go high-end chance on Wednesday night.
Wednesday`s 20-30 POP is even a bit generous, but wanted to wait for
more continuity and/or agreement in the models before removing the
mention. Temps above normal Mon-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Dry air is rushing in on northwest winds and helping to scour out
the low clouds from west to east. This will continue this evening
and should result in VFR ceilings for the bulk of the overnight
hours.

An upper level disturbance coming in from the northwest tomorrow,
accompanied by a fair amount of moisture and interacting with steep
low level lapse rates, will result in widespread cu development and
scattered showers, especially in the afternoon.  Shower chances at
any one airport are small enough to leave out of the TAFs for
now...LEX stands the best shot at seeing one.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 262315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Main forecast concerns are precipitation trends through this evening
then the unseasonably cold conditions heading into this weekend.

Mid afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure near across West
Virginia with a pronounced cold front stretching back from through
eastern Kentucky into central Tennessee. Northwest winds and post
frontal stratus encompasses much of the area as readings have
steadily fallen since morning. Much of the area is in the 40s.

The upper levels are characterized by a digging trough with its axis
from St Louis to Dallas. A PV anomaly is noted in water vapor
imagery near Arkansas and this is helping to fuel additional
showers across southwest Kentucky. A 130 kt jet lies north of the
area, putting the Ohio Valley favorably within the right entrance
region. Until the upper level forcing passes, scattered showers
will pass through central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Areas
along and west of I-65 should see an end between around 6 pm, then
between 6 and 9 pm for areas east. Rainfall amounts look to be 1/4
inch or less.

RH fields in the low levels show clouds will be on the decrease
overnight as drier northwest air arrives. We`ll have a steady north
gradient but plan on lows to fall into the 30s region wide. For
Friday, still looking a brisk, unseasonably cold day with highs
again stuck in the 40s. The low level lapse rates and cold air aloft
will likely result in partly/mostly cloudy cumulus clouds by late
morning through the afternoon. 26.12z and hi-res models still
suggesting light showers could develop with it mainly falling as
rain but could not rule out a snow or sleet pellet at times.

Canadian high pressure builds in tomorrow night though its axis
remains to our west for much of the night. Northerly winds will keep
the boundary layer stirred, holding lows up though mid 20s region
wide still looks good. Would not be surprised if some outlying,
sheltered locations drop into the upper teens briefly.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Canadian surface high and upper trof over the eastern CONUS will
keep the first half of the weekend unseasonably cool. While it is
difficult to discount the nearly-April sun angle, 850mb temps only
recover to -8C by 00Z Sunday. This yields a max temp forecast in the
upper 30s/lower 40s, just skirting the cooler end of MOS guidance.
Saturday night will be a matter of just how efficiently we radiate
before developing return flow starts to mix the boundary layer. If
radiational cooling is maximized we could be as cold as Friday
night, if not a bit colder. This forecast in the lower/mid 20s is
close to guidance, and is the warmest likely scenario
notwithstanding the possibility that temps start rising before
daybreak Sunday if the SE return flow is strong enough.

Sunday will be a transitional day between the cold/dry weekend and a
milder, progressive pattern heading into next week. Return flow will
allow temps to recover well into the 50s, which is still below
normal this time of year. Clouds will increase late in the day as a
weak front approaches, but will keep the POPs out of the forecast
until Sunday night.

Progressive pattern next week will begin as mainly NW flow but will
flatten out around mid-week. Have pretty much followed the latest
ECMWF, which is slower with the Sunday night cold front and drier
with the disturbance that passes to our north and east late
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Timing differences aside, model precip
appears overdone especially with the first front, as depth of
moisture is lacking. Will limit POPs to chance on Sunday night into
Monday. Expect the second front to also go through dry.

A more robust system will develop by Wednesday night and Thursday,
but model solutions still differ. GFS appears dominated by the
southern stream while ECMWF favors the northern stream, but by then
the upper pattern is flat enough that we do tap enough Gulf moisture
and warm advection to support precip chances. Still not about to go
likely 6-7 days out but will go high-end chance on Wednesday night.
Wednesday`s 20-30 POP is even a bit generous, but wanted to wait for
more continuity and/or agreement in the models before removing the
mention. Temps above normal Mon-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Dry air is rushing in on northwest winds and helping to scour out
the low clouds from west to east. This will continue this evening
and should result in VFR ceilings for the bulk of the overnight
hours.

An upper level disturbance coming in from the northwest tomorrow,
accompanied by a fair amount of moisture and interacting with steep
low level lapse rates, will result in widespread cu development and
scattered showers, especially in the afternoon.  Shower chances at
any one airport are small enough to leave out of the TAFs for
now...LEX stands the best shot at seeing one.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 262315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Main forecast concerns are precipitation trends through this evening
then the unseasonably cold conditions heading into this weekend.

Mid afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure near across West
Virginia with a pronounced cold front stretching back from through
eastern Kentucky into central Tennessee. Northwest winds and post
frontal stratus encompasses much of the area as readings have
steadily fallen since morning. Much of the area is in the 40s.

The upper levels are characterized by a digging trough with its axis
from St Louis to Dallas. A PV anomaly is noted in water vapor
imagery near Arkansas and this is helping to fuel additional
showers across southwest Kentucky. A 130 kt jet lies north of the
area, putting the Ohio Valley favorably within the right entrance
region. Until the upper level forcing passes, scattered showers
will pass through central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Areas
along and west of I-65 should see an end between around 6 pm, then
between 6 and 9 pm for areas east. Rainfall amounts look to be 1/4
inch or less.

RH fields in the low levels show clouds will be on the decrease
overnight as drier northwest air arrives. We`ll have a steady north
gradient but plan on lows to fall into the 30s region wide. For
Friday, still looking a brisk, unseasonably cold day with highs
again stuck in the 40s. The low level lapse rates and cold air aloft
will likely result in partly/mostly cloudy cumulus clouds by late
morning through the afternoon. 26.12z and hi-res models still
suggesting light showers could develop with it mainly falling as
rain but could not rule out a snow or sleet pellet at times.

Canadian high pressure builds in tomorrow night though its axis
remains to our west for much of the night. Northerly winds will keep
the boundary layer stirred, holding lows up though mid 20s region
wide still looks good. Would not be surprised if some outlying,
sheltered locations drop into the upper teens briefly.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Canadian surface high and upper trof over the eastern CONUS will
keep the first half of the weekend unseasonably cool. While it is
difficult to discount the nearly-April sun angle, 850mb temps only
recover to -8C by 00Z Sunday. This yields a max temp forecast in the
upper 30s/lower 40s, just skirting the cooler end of MOS guidance.
Saturday night will be a matter of just how efficiently we radiate
before developing return flow starts to mix the boundary layer. If
radiational cooling is maximized we could be as cold as Friday
night, if not a bit colder. This forecast in the lower/mid 20s is
close to guidance, and is the warmest likely scenario
notwithstanding the possibility that temps start rising before
daybreak Sunday if the SE return flow is strong enough.

Sunday will be a transitional day between the cold/dry weekend and a
milder, progressive pattern heading into next week. Return flow will
allow temps to recover well into the 50s, which is still below
normal this time of year. Clouds will increase late in the day as a
weak front approaches, but will keep the POPs out of the forecast
until Sunday night.

Progressive pattern next week will begin as mainly NW flow but will
flatten out around mid-week. Have pretty much followed the latest
ECMWF, which is slower with the Sunday night cold front and drier
with the disturbance that passes to our north and east late
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Timing differences aside, model precip
appears overdone especially with the first front, as depth of
moisture is lacking. Will limit POPs to chance on Sunday night into
Monday. Expect the second front to also go through dry.

A more robust system will develop by Wednesday night and Thursday,
but model solutions still differ. GFS appears dominated by the
southern stream while ECMWF favors the northern stream, but by then
the upper pattern is flat enough that we do tap enough Gulf moisture
and warm advection to support precip chances. Still not about to go
likely 6-7 days out but will go high-end chance on Wednesday night.
Wednesday`s 20-30 POP is even a bit generous, but wanted to wait for
more continuity and/or agreement in the models before removing the
mention. Temps above normal Mon-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Dry air is rushing in on northwest winds and helping to scour out
the low clouds from west to east. This will continue this evening
and should result in VFR ceilings for the bulk of the overnight
hours.

An upper level disturbance coming in from the northwest tomorrow,
accompanied by a fair amount of moisture and interacting with steep
low level lapse rates, will result in widespread cu development and
scattered showers, especially in the afternoon.  Shower chances at
any one airport are small enough to leave out of the TAFs for
now...LEX stands the best shot at seeing one.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Main forecast concerns are precipitation trends through this evening
then the unseasonably cold conditions heading into this weekend.

Mid afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure near across West
Virginia with a pronounced cold front stretching back from through
eastern Kentucky into central Tennessee. Northwest winds and post
frontal stratus encompasses much of the area as readings have
steadily fallen since morning. Much of the area is in the 40s.

The upper levels are characterized by a digging trough with its axis
from St Louis to Dallas. A PV anomaly is noted in water vapor
imagery near Arkansas and this is helping to fuel additional
showers across southwest Kentucky. A 130 kt jet lies north of the
area, putting the Ohio Valley favorably within the right entrance
region. Until the upper level forcing passes, scattered showers
will pass through central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Areas
along and west of I-65 should see an end between around 6 pm, then
between 6 and 9 pm for areas east. Rainfall amounts look to be 1/4
inch or less.

RH fields in the low levels show clouds will be on the decrease
overnight as drier northwest air arrives. We`ll have a steady north
gradient but plan on lows to fall into the 30s region wide. For
Friday, still looking a brisk, unseasonably cold day with highs
again stuck in the 40s. The low level lapse rates and cold air aloft
will likely result in partly/mostly cloudy cumulus clouds by late
morning through the afternoon. 26.12z and hi-res models still
suggesting light showers could develop with it mainly falling as
rain but could not rule out a snow or sleet pellet at times.

Canadian high pressure builds in tomorrow night though its axis
remains to our west for much of the night. Northerly winds will keep
the boundary layer stirred, holding lows up though mid 20s region
wide still looks good. Would not be surprised if some outlying,
sheltered locations drop into the upper teens briefly.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Canadian surface high and upper trof over the eastern CONUS will
keep the first half of the weekend unseasonably cool. While it is
difficult to discount the nearly-April sun angle, 850mb temps only
recover to -8C by 00Z Sunday. This yields a max temp forecast in the
upper 30s/lower 40s, just skirting the cooler end of MOS guidance.
Saturday night will be a matter of just how efficiently we radiate
before developing return flow starts to mix the boundary layer. If
radiational cooling is maximized we could be as cold as Friday
night, if not a bit colder. This forecast in the lower/mid 20s is
close to guidance, and is the warmest likely scenario
notwithstanding the possibility that temps start rising before
daybreak Sunday if the SE return flow is strong enough.

Sunday will be a transitional day between the cold/dry weekend and a
milder, progressive pattern heading into next week. Return flow will
allow temps to recover well into the 50s, which is still below
normal this time of year. Clouds will increase late in the day as a
weak front approaches, but will keep the POPs out of the forecast
until Sunday night.

Progressive pattern next week will begin as mainly NW flow but will
flatten out around mid-week. Have pretty much followed the latest
ECMWF, which is slower with the Sunday night cold front and drier
with the disturbance that passes to our north and east late
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Timing differences aside, model precip
appears overdone especially with the first front, as depth of
moisture is lacking. Will limit POPs to chance on Sunday night into
Monday. Expect the second front to also go through dry.

A more robust system will develop by Wednesday night and Thursday,
but model solutions still differ. GFS appears dominated by the
southern stream while ECMWF favors the northern stream, but by then
the upper pattern is flat enough that we do tap enough Gulf moisture
and warm advection to support precip chances. Still not about to go
likely 6-7 days out but will go high-end chance on Wednesday night.
Wednesday`s 20-30 POP is even a bit generous, but wanted to wait for
more continuity and/or agreement in the models before removing the
mention. Temps above normal Mon-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Dry air is rushing in on northwest winds and helping to scour out
the low clouds from west to east. This will continue this evening
and should result in VFR ceilings for the bulk of the overnight
hours.

An upper level disturbance coming in from the northwest tomorrow,
accompanied by a fair amount of moisture and interacting with steep
low level lapse rates, will result in widespread cu development and
scattered showers, especially in the afternoon.  Shower chances at
any one airport are small enough to leave out of the TAFs for
now...LEX stands the best shot at seeing one.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261859
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Main forecast concerns are precipitation trends through this evening
then the unseasonably cold conditions heading into this weekend.

Mid afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure near across West
Virginia with a pronounced cold front stretching back from through
eastern Kentucky into central Tennessee. Northwest winds and post
frontal stratus encompasses much of the area as readings have
steadily fallen since morning. Much of the area is in the 40s.

The upper levels are characterized by a digging trough with its axis
from St Louis to Dallas. A PV anomaly is noted in water vapor
imagery near Arkansas and this is helping to fuel additional
showers across southwest Kentucky. A 130 kt jet lies north of the
area, putting the Ohio Valley favorably within the right entrance
region. Until the upper level forcing passes, scattered showers
will pass through central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Areas
along and west of I-65 should see an end between around 6 pm, then
between 6 and 9 pm for areas east. Rainfall amounts look to be 1/4
inch or less.

RH fields in the low levels show clouds will be on the decrease
overnight as drier northwest air arrives. We`ll have a steady north
gradient but plan on lows to fall into the 30s region wide. For
Friday, still looking a brisk, unseasonably cold day with highs
again stuck in the 40s. The low level lapse rates and cold air aloft
will likely result in partly/mostly cloudy cumulus clouds by late
morning through the afternoon. 26.12z and hi-res models still
suggesting light showers could develop with it mainly falling as
rain but could not rule out a snow or sleet pellet at times.

Canadian high pressure builds in tomorrow night though its axis
remains to our west for much of the night. Northerly winds will keep
the boundary layer stirred, holding lows up though mid 20s region
wide still looks good. Would not be surprised if some outlying,
sheltered locations drop into the upper teens briefly.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Canadian surface high and upper trof over the eastern CONUS will
keep the first half of the weekend unseasonably cool. While it is
difficult to discount the nearly-April sun angle, 850mb temps only
recover to -8C by 00Z Sunday. This yields a max temp forecast in the
upper 30s/lower 40s, just skirting the cooler end of MOS guidance.
Saturday night will be a matter of just how efficiently we radiate
before developing return flow starts to mix the boundary layer. If
radiational cooling is maximized we could be as cold as Friday
night, if not a bit colder. This forecast in the lower/mid 20s is
close to guidance, and is the warmest likely scenario
notwithstanding the possibility that temps start rising before
daybreak Sunday if the SE return flow is strong enough.

Sunday will be a transitional day between the cold/dry weekend and a
milder, progressive pattern heading into next week. Return flow will
allow temps to recover well into the 50s, which is still below
normal this time of year. Clouds will increase late in the day as a
weak front approaches, but will keep the POPs out of the forecast
until Sunday night.

Progressive pattern next week will begin as mainly NW flow but will
flatten out around mid-week. Have pretty much followed the latest
ECMWF, which is slower with the Sunday night cold front and drier
with the disturbance that passes to our north and east late
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Timing differences aside, model precip
appears overdone especially with the first front, as depth of
moisture is lacking. Will limit POPs to chance on Sunday night into
Monday. Expect the second front to also go through dry.

A more robust system will develop by Wednesday night and Thursday,
but model solutions still differ. GFS appears dominated by the
southern stream while ECMWF favors the northern stream, but by then
the upper pattern is flat enough that we do tap enough Gulf moisture
and warm advection to support precip chances. Still not about to go
likely 6-7 days out but will go high-end chance on Wednesday night.
Wednesday`s 20-30 POP is even a bit generous, but wanted to wait for
more continuity and/or agreement in the models before removing the
mention. Temps above normal Mon-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Cold front has passed through SDF/LEX/BWG as of early afternoon and
plan on northwest winds to persist through the TAF period. IFR
ceilings continue across central Kentucky, though drier air coming
in from the northwest is helping to lift ceilings gradually
upstream. Plan on a slow but steady improving trend through this
afternoon and evening. Current satellite trends suggest back edge of
cloud deck will arrive at SDF/BWG/LEX between mid and late evening.
Shower activity will wane as well this afternoon with just
intermittent MVFR visibility restrictions possible. For Friday,
steep low level lapse rates and cold air aloft will allow
scattered/broken cu to develop late morning through the afternoon
hours. Bases with those clouds are expected to be high-end MVFR or
VFR at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261642
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1242 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Current analysis shows that the cold front now has pushed through
about 2/3 of the forecast area, with the Cumberland region the
remaining spot in the warm sector. Main line of showers/embedded
thunderstorms has pushed through the area...however expecting an
uptick in showers as next wave upstream arrives. Later this
afternoon, the southern and southeast region is still under a
favorable right entrance region of the jet with a PV anomaly
rotating through, so another round of widespread showers is
expected. Adjusted near term temperatures to reflect cold frontal
passage and tweaked afternoon/early evening POPs for the next
upstream wave.

Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Cold front has passed through SDF/LEX/BWG as of early afternoon and
plan on northwest winds to persist through the TAF period. IFR
ceilings continue across central Kentucky, though drier air coming
in from the northwest is helping to lift ceilings gradually
upstream. Plan on a slow but steady improving trend through this
afternoon and evening. Current satellite trends suggest back edge of
cloud deck will arrive at SDF/BWG/LEX between mid and late evening.
Shower activity will wane as well this afternoon with just
intermittent MVFR visibility restrictions possible. For Friday,
steep low level lapse rates and cold air aloft will allow
scattered/broken cu to develop late morning through the afternoon
hours. Bases with those clouds are expected to be high-end MVFR or
VFR at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......ZT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261642
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1242 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Current analysis shows that the cold front now has pushed through
about 2/3 of the forecast area, with the Cumberland region the
remaining spot in the warm sector. Main line of showers/embedded
thunderstorms has pushed through the area...however expecting an
uptick in showers as next wave upstream arrives. Later this
afternoon, the southern and southeast region is still under a
favorable right entrance region of the jet with a PV anomaly
rotating through, so another round of widespread showers is
expected. Adjusted near term temperatures to reflect cold frontal
passage and tweaked afternoon/early evening POPs for the next
upstream wave.

Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Cold front has passed through SDF/LEX/BWG as of early afternoon and
plan on northwest winds to persist through the TAF period. IFR
ceilings continue across central Kentucky, though drier air coming
in from the northwest is helping to lift ceilings gradually
upstream. Plan on a slow but steady improving trend through this
afternoon and evening. Current satellite trends suggest back edge of
cloud deck will arrive at SDF/BWG/LEX between mid and late evening.
Shower activity will wane as well this afternoon with just
intermittent MVFR visibility restrictions possible. For Friday,
steep low level lapse rates and cold air aloft will allow
scattered/broken cu to develop late morning through the afternoon
hours. Bases with those clouds are expected to be high-end MVFR or
VFR at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261249
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
849 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Current analysis shows that the cold front now has pushed through
about 2/3 of the forecast area, with the Cumberland region the
remaining spot in the warm sector. Main line of showers/embedded
thunderstorms has pushed through the area...however expecting an
uptick in showers as next wave upstream arrives. Later this
afternoon, the southern and southeast region is still under a
favorable right entrance region of the jet with a PV anomaly
rotating through, so another round of widespread showers is
expected. Adjusted near term temperatures to reflect cold frontal
passage and tweaked afternoon/early evening POPs for the next
upstream wave.

Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low centered across eastern KY this morning will continue
to move off to the northeast. This low will drag a cold front
through today. SDF is north of this front already with northwesterly
winds that will continue through the day. Winds will shift at BWG
and LEX later this morning. Rain will continue off and on at all
sites through much of the day. It will taper off this afternoon into
the evening.

Ceilings in the wake of the front will lower to IFR for awhile
before improving late this afternoon to MVFR and then VFR. Winds
will remain out of the northwest overnight around 5 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261249
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
849 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Current analysis shows that the cold front now has pushed through
about 2/3 of the forecast area, with the Cumberland region the
remaining spot in the warm sector. Main line of showers/embedded
thunderstorms has pushed through the area...however expecting an
uptick in showers as next wave upstream arrives. Later this
afternoon, the southern and southeast region is still under a
favorable right entrance region of the jet with a PV anomaly
rotating through, so another round of widespread showers is
expected. Adjusted near term temperatures to reflect cold frontal
passage and tweaked afternoon/early evening POPs for the next
upstream wave.

Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low centered across eastern KY this morning will continue
to move off to the northeast. This low will drag a cold front
through today. SDF is north of this front already with northwesterly
winds that will continue through the day. Winds will shift at BWG
and LEX later this morning. Rain will continue off and on at all
sites through much of the day. It will taper off this afternoon into
the evening.

Ceilings in the wake of the front will lower to IFR for awhile
before improving late this afternoon to MVFR and then VFR. Winds
will remain out of the northwest overnight around 5 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261249
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
849 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Current analysis shows that the cold front now has pushed through
about 2/3 of the forecast area, with the Cumberland region the
remaining spot in the warm sector. Main line of showers/embedded
thunderstorms has pushed through the area...however expecting an
uptick in showers as next wave upstream arrives. Later this
afternoon, the southern and southeast region is still under a
favorable right entrance region of the jet with a PV anomaly
rotating through, so another round of widespread showers is
expected. Adjusted near term temperatures to reflect cold frontal
passage and tweaked afternoon/early evening POPs for the next
upstream wave.

Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low centered across eastern KY this morning will continue
to move off to the northeast. This low will drag a cold front
through today. SDF is north of this front already with northwesterly
winds that will continue through the day. Winds will shift at BWG
and LEX later this morning. Rain will continue off and on at all
sites through much of the day. It will taper off this afternoon into
the evening.

Ceilings in the wake of the front will lower to IFR for awhile
before improving late this afternoon to MVFR and then VFR. Winds
will remain out of the northwest overnight around 5 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261249
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
849 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Current analysis shows that the cold front now has pushed through
about 2/3 of the forecast area, with the Cumberland region the
remaining spot in the warm sector. Main line of showers/embedded
thunderstorms has pushed through the area...however expecting an
uptick in showers as next wave upstream arrives. Later this
afternoon, the southern and southeast region is still under a
favorable right entrance region of the jet with a PV anomaly
rotating through, so another round of widespread showers is
expected. Adjusted near term temperatures to reflect cold frontal
passage and tweaked afternoon/early evening POPs for the next
upstream wave.

Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low centered across eastern KY this morning will continue
to move off to the northeast. This low will drag a cold front
through today. SDF is north of this front already with northwesterly
winds that will continue through the day. Winds will shift at BWG
and LEX later this morning. Rain will continue off and on at all
sites through much of the day. It will taper off this afternoon into
the evening.

Ceilings in the wake of the front will lower to IFR for awhile
before improving late this afternoon to MVFR and then VFR. Winds
will remain out of the northwest overnight around 5 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261049
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
649 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low centered across eastern KY this morning will continue
to move off to the northeast. This low will drag a cold front
through today. SDF is north of this front already with northwesterly
winds that will continue through the day. Winds will shift at BWG
and LEX later this morning. Rain will continue off and on at all
sites through much of the day. It will taper off this afternoon into
the evening.

Ceilings in the wake of the front will lower to IFR for awhile
before improving late this afternoon to MVFR and then VFR. Winds
will remain out of the northwest overnight around 5 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261049
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
649 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low centered across eastern KY this morning will continue
to move off to the northeast. This low will drag a cold front
through today. SDF is north of this front already with northwesterly
winds that will continue through the day. Winds will shift at BWG
and LEX later this morning. Rain will continue off and on at all
sites through much of the day. It will taper off this afternoon into
the evening.

Ceilings in the wake of the front will lower to IFR for awhile
before improving late this afternoon to MVFR and then VFR. Winds
will remain out of the northwest overnight around 5 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261049
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
649 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low centered across eastern KY this morning will continue
to move off to the northeast. This low will drag a cold front
through today. SDF is north of this front already with northwesterly
winds that will continue through the day. Winds will shift at BWG
and LEX later this morning. Rain will continue off and on at all
sites through much of the day. It will taper off this afternoon into
the evening.

Ceilings in the wake of the front will lower to IFR for awhile
before improving late this afternoon to MVFR and then VFR. Winds
will remain out of the northwest overnight around 5 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261026
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
626 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A boundary stretched across central KY this morning is just to the
south of SDF and LEX. This boundary will lift slightly northward
overnight shifting winds to southerly at LEX for a time, but looks
to stay just south of SDF. A low pressure system will then drag a
cold front through this morning, shifting winds to northwesterly at
all sites.

Ahead of the cold front a few storms may still be possible at SDF.
Have moved back the timing of the VCTS to 07Z. Any chance for
thunderstorms will quickly diminish this morning as the cold front
moves through. However, rain will continue through much of the day
at all sites.

VFR ceiling will deteriorate as precipitation begins today. Expect
ceilings to eventually lower to low end MVFR or IFR. They should
improve late this afternoon into the evening as rain moves off to
the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261026
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
626 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A boundary stretched across central KY this morning is just to the
south of SDF and LEX. This boundary will lift slightly northward
overnight shifting winds to southerly at LEX for a time, but looks
to stay just south of SDF. A low pressure system will then drag a
cold front through this morning, shifting winds to northwesterly at
all sites.

Ahead of the cold front a few storms may still be possible at SDF.
Have moved back the timing of the VCTS to 07Z. Any chance for
thunderstorms will quickly diminish this morning as the cold front
moves through. However, rain will continue through much of the day
at all sites.

VFR ceiling will deteriorate as precipitation begins today. Expect
ceilings to eventually lower to low end MVFR or IFR. They should
improve late this afternoon into the evening as rain moves off to
the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261026
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
626 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A boundary stretched across central KY this morning is just to the
south of SDF and LEX. This boundary will lift slightly northward
overnight shifting winds to southerly at LEX for a time, but looks
to stay just south of SDF. A low pressure system will then drag a
cold front through this morning, shifting winds to northwesterly at
all sites.

Ahead of the cold front a few storms may still be possible at SDF.
Have moved back the timing of the VCTS to 07Z. Any chance for
thunderstorms will quickly diminish this morning as the cold front
moves through. However, rain will continue through much of the day
at all sites.

VFR ceiling will deteriorate as precipitation begins today. Expect
ceilings to eventually lower to low end MVFR or IFR. They should
improve late this afternoon into the evening as rain moves off to
the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261026
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
626 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A boundary stretched across central KY this morning is just to the
south of SDF and LEX. This boundary will lift slightly northward
overnight shifting winds to southerly at LEX for a time, but looks
to stay just south of SDF. A low pressure system will then drag a
cold front through this morning, shifting winds to northwesterly at
all sites.

Ahead of the cold front a few storms may still be possible at SDF.
Have moved back the timing of the VCTS to 07Z. Any chance for
thunderstorms will quickly diminish this morning as the cold front
moves through. However, rain will continue through much of the day
at all sites.

VFR ceiling will deteriorate as precipitation begins today. Expect
ceilings to eventually lower to low end MVFR or IFR. They should
improve late this afternoon into the evening as rain moves off to
the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260652
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
252 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A boundary stretched across central KY this morning is just to the
south of SDF and LEX. This boundary will lift slightly northward
overnight shifting winds to southerly at LEX for a time, but looks
to stay just south of SDF. A low pressure system will then drag a
cold front through this morning, shifting winds to northwesterly at
all sites.

Ahead of the cold front a few storms may still be possible at SDF.
Have moved back the timing of the VCTS to 07Z. Any chance for
thunderstorms will quickly diminish this morning as the cold front
moves through. However, rain will continue through much of the day
at all sites.

VFR ceiling will deteriorate as precipitation begins today. Expect
ceilings to eventually lower to low end MVFR or IFR. They should
improve late this afternoon into the evening as rain moves off to
the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 260652
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
252 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A boundary stretched across central KY this morning is just to the
south of SDF and LEX. This boundary will lift slightly northward
overnight shifting winds to southerly at LEX for a time, but looks
to stay just south of SDF. A low pressure system will then drag a
cold front through this morning, shifting winds to northwesterly at
all sites.

Ahead of the cold front a few storms may still be possible at SDF.
Have moved back the timing of the VCTS to 07Z. Any chance for
thunderstorms will quickly diminish this morning as the cold front
moves through. However, rain will continue through much of the day
at all sites.

VFR ceiling will deteriorate as precipitation begins today. Expect
ceilings to eventually lower to low end MVFR or IFR. They should
improve late this afternoon into the evening as rain moves off to
the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260652
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
252 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A boundary stretched across central KY this morning is just to the
south of SDF and LEX. This boundary will lift slightly northward
overnight shifting winds to southerly at LEX for a time, but looks
to stay just south of SDF. A low pressure system will then drag a
cold front through this morning, shifting winds to northwesterly at
all sites.

Ahead of the cold front a few storms may still be possible at SDF.
Have moved back the timing of the VCTS to 07Z. Any chance for
thunderstorms will quickly diminish this morning as the cold front
moves through. However, rain will continue through much of the day
at all sites.

VFR ceiling will deteriorate as precipitation begins today. Expect
ceilings to eventually lower to low end MVFR or IFR. They should
improve late this afternoon into the evening as rain moves off to
the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260652
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
252 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A boundary stretched across central KY this morning is just to the
south of SDF and LEX. This boundary will lift slightly northward
overnight shifting winds to southerly at LEX for a time, but looks
to stay just south of SDF. A low pressure system will then drag a
cold front through this morning, shifting winds to northwesterly at
all sites.

Ahead of the cold front a few storms may still be possible at SDF.
Have moved back the timing of the VCTS to 07Z. Any chance for
thunderstorms will quickly diminish this morning as the cold front
moves through. However, rain will continue through much of the day
at all sites.

VFR ceiling will deteriorate as precipitation begins today. Expect
ceilings to eventually lower to low end MVFR or IFR. They should
improve late this afternoon into the evening as rain moves off to
the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 260458
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 908 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Nearly stationary boundary that is currently stretching horizontally
across the center part of the state will work back north as a warm
front tonight. Expect to see showers/storms beginning to develop
along this boundary over the next 1 to 2 hours as low level jetting
increases and convergence continues ahead an ejecting surface
surface low currently over NW Arkansas. Instability across our area
is quite meager and is not surface based at the moment. Do expect to
see some low and mid 50s dew points pool once the warm sector gets
established later tonight, however likely not enough to allow
convection to become surface based. Still can`t rule out a few
pockets of gusty winds, but think that the overall severe threat is
quite low. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming hours and
update as necessary.

Issued at 622 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A quasi-stationary boundary has stalled just south of the Ohio River
at this hour. Meanwhile, a warm front extends from just southwest of
Owensboro into southern Illinois. Will watch this feature and our
stationary boundary lift back north through the evening hours as
surface low pressure ejects out of the southern Plains. This wave
moving along the boundary, along with increased low level jetting
will lead to more widespread convection into the overnight mainly
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

In the meantime, will watch slightly developed cu in the unstable
air south of the boundary over central KY this evening. Some hi-res
data suggests we`ll get enough convergence and destabilization for
some storms in the next few hours. However, looking at latest
mesoanalysis destabilization is slow going and there isn`t much of a
trigger yet. If any storms are able to fire and get organized, the
large T/Td spread would allow for gusty winds as soundings do show
an inverted V structure near the surface. At this point, feel the
likelihood is low.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A boundary stretched across central KY this morning is just to the
south of SDF and LEX. This boundary will lift slightly northward
overnight shifting winds to southerly at LEX for a time, but looks
to stay just south of SDF. A low pressure system will then drag a
cold front through this morning, shifting winds to northwesterly at
all sites.

Ahead of the cold front a few storms may still be possible at SDF.
Have moved back the timing of the VCTS to 07Z. Any chance for
thunderstorms will quickly diminish this morning as the cold front
moves through. However, rain will continue through much of the day
at all sites.

VFR ceiling will deteriorate as precipitation begins today. Expect
ceilings to eventually lower to low end MVFR or IFR. They should
improve late this afternoon into the evening as rain moves off to
the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260458
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 908 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Nearly stationary boundary that is currently stretching horizontally
across the center part of the state will work back north as a warm
front tonight. Expect to see showers/storms beginning to develop
along this boundary over the next 1 to 2 hours as low level jetting
increases and convergence continues ahead an ejecting surface
surface low currently over NW Arkansas. Instability across our area
is quite meager and is not surface based at the moment. Do expect to
see some low and mid 50s dew points pool once the warm sector gets
established later tonight, however likely not enough to allow
convection to become surface based. Still can`t rule out a few
pockets of gusty winds, but think that the overall severe threat is
quite low. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming hours and
update as necessary.

Issued at 622 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A quasi-stationary boundary has stalled just south of the Ohio River
at this hour. Meanwhile, a warm front extends from just southwest of
Owensboro into southern Illinois. Will watch this feature and our
stationary boundary lift back north through the evening hours as
surface low pressure ejects out of the southern Plains. This wave
moving along the boundary, along with increased low level jetting
will lead to more widespread convection into the overnight mainly
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

In the meantime, will watch slightly developed cu in the unstable
air south of the boundary over central KY this evening. Some hi-res
data suggests we`ll get enough convergence and destabilization for
some storms in the next few hours. However, looking at latest
mesoanalysis destabilization is slow going and there isn`t much of a
trigger yet. If any storms are able to fire and get organized, the
large T/Td spread would allow for gusty winds as soundings do show
an inverted V structure near the surface. At this point, feel the
likelihood is low.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A boundary stretched across central KY this morning is just to the
south of SDF and LEX. This boundary will lift slightly northward
overnight shifting winds to southerly at LEX for a time, but looks
to stay just south of SDF. A low pressure system will then drag a
cold front through this morning, shifting winds to northwesterly at
all sites.

Ahead of the cold front a few storms may still be possible at SDF.
Have moved back the timing of the VCTS to 07Z. Any chance for
thunderstorms will quickly diminish this morning as the cold front
moves through. However, rain will continue through much of the day
at all sites.

VFR ceiling will deteriorate as precipitation begins today. Expect
ceilings to eventually lower to low end MVFR or IFR. They should
improve late this afternoon into the evening as rain moves off to
the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260458
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 908 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Nearly stationary boundary that is currently stretching horizontally
across the center part of the state will work back north as a warm
front tonight. Expect to see showers/storms beginning to develop
along this boundary over the next 1 to 2 hours as low level jetting
increases and convergence continues ahead an ejecting surface
surface low currently over NW Arkansas. Instability across our area
is quite meager and is not surface based at the moment. Do expect to
see some low and mid 50s dew points pool once the warm sector gets
established later tonight, however likely not enough to allow
convection to become surface based. Still can`t rule out a few
pockets of gusty winds, but think that the overall severe threat is
quite low. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming hours and
update as necessary.

Issued at 622 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A quasi-stationary boundary has stalled just south of the Ohio River
at this hour. Meanwhile, a warm front extends from just southwest of
Owensboro into southern Illinois. Will watch this feature and our
stationary boundary lift back north through the evening hours as
surface low pressure ejects out of the southern Plains. This wave
moving along the boundary, along with increased low level jetting
will lead to more widespread convection into the overnight mainly
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

In the meantime, will watch slightly developed cu in the unstable
air south of the boundary over central KY this evening. Some hi-res
data suggests we`ll get enough convergence and destabilization for
some storms in the next few hours. However, looking at latest
mesoanalysis destabilization is slow going and there isn`t much of a
trigger yet. If any storms are able to fire and get organized, the
large T/Td spread would allow for gusty winds as soundings do show
an inverted V structure near the surface. At this point, feel the
likelihood is low.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A boundary stretched across central KY this morning is just to the
south of SDF and LEX. This boundary will lift slightly northward
overnight shifting winds to southerly at LEX for a time, but looks
to stay just south of SDF. A low pressure system will then drag a
cold front through this morning, shifting winds to northwesterly at
all sites.

Ahead of the cold front a few storms may still be possible at SDF.
Have moved back the timing of the VCTS to 07Z. Any chance for
thunderstorms will quickly diminish this morning as the cold front
moves through. However, rain will continue through much of the day
at all sites.

VFR ceiling will deteriorate as precipitation begins today. Expect
ceilings to eventually lower to low end MVFR or IFR. They should
improve late this afternoon into the evening as rain moves off to
the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 260108
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
908 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 908 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Nearly stationary boundary that is currently stretching horizontally
across the center part of the state will work back north as a warm
front tonight. Expect to see showers/storms beginning to develop
along this boundary over the next 1 to 2 hours as low level jetting
increases and convergence continues ahead an ejecting surface
surface low currently over NW Arkansas. Instability across our area
is quite meager and is not surface based at the moment. Do expect to
see some low and mid 50s dew points pool once the warm sector gets
established later tonight, however likely not enough to allow
convection to become surface based. Still can`t rule out a few
pockets of gusty winds, but think that the overall severe threat is
quite low. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming hours and
update as necessary.

Issued at 622 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A quasi-stationary boundary has stalled just south of the Ohio River
at this hour. Meanwhile, a warm front extends from just southwest of
Owensboro into southern Illinois. Will watch this feature and our
stationary boundary lift back north through the evening hours as
surface low pressure ejects out of the southern Plains. This wave
moving along the boundary, along with increased low level jetting
will lead to more widespread convection into the overnight mainly
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

In the meantime, will watch slightly developed cu in the unstable
air south of the boundary over central KY this evening. Some hi-res
data suggests we`ll get enough convergence and destabilization for
some storms in the next few hours. However, looking at latest
mesoanalysis destabilization is slow going and there isn`t much of a
trigger yet. If any storms are able to fire and get organized, the
large T/Td spread would allow for gusty winds as soundings do show
an inverted V structure near the surface. At this point, feel the
likelihood is low.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A nearly stationary frontal boundary has settled just south of SDF
at this hour, however remains well north of LEX/BWG. This feature
will lift back north as a warm front through the evening as a
surface low ejects out of the southern Plains. Expect showers and a
few thunderstorms to develop ahead of this surface wave with best
coverage at SDF. BWG and LEX may not see much until the showers just
ahead of cold frontal passage Thursday morning.

Winds will be variable around SDF, however will eventually take on a
SW component overnight. Expect winds to stay between SE and SW at
LEX/BWG through the overnight. Conditions are expected to stay VFR
in the warm sector outside of any shower/storms where MVFR or worse
ceilings/visibilities will be possible.

The cold front will pass just after sunrise tomorrow with ceilings
likely deteriorating down into the IFR or low MVFR range for a good
portion of the day. NW winds will then prevail after FROPA.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 260108
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
908 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 908 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Nearly stationary boundary that is currently stretching horizontally
across the center part of the state will work back north as a warm
front tonight. Expect to see showers/storms beginning to develop
along this boundary over the next 1 to 2 hours as low level jetting
increases and convergence continues ahead an ejecting surface
surface low currently over NW Arkansas. Instability across our area
is quite meager and is not surface based at the moment. Do expect to
see some low and mid 50s dew points pool once the warm sector gets
established later tonight, however likely not enough to allow
convection to become surface based. Still can`t rule out a few
pockets of gusty winds, but think that the overall severe threat is
quite low. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming hours and
update as necessary.

Issued at 622 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A quasi-stationary boundary has stalled just south of the Ohio River
at this hour. Meanwhile, a warm front extends from just southwest of
Owensboro into southern Illinois. Will watch this feature and our
stationary boundary lift back north through the evening hours as
surface low pressure ejects out of the southern Plains. This wave
moving along the boundary, along with increased low level jetting
will lead to more widespread convection into the overnight mainly
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

In the meantime, will watch slightly developed cu in the unstable
air south of the boundary over central KY this evening. Some hi-res
data suggests we`ll get enough convergence and destabilization for
some storms in the next few hours. However, looking at latest
mesoanalysis destabilization is slow going and there isn`t much of a
trigger yet. If any storms are able to fire and get organized, the
large T/Td spread would allow for gusty winds as soundings do show
an inverted V structure near the surface. At this point, feel the
likelihood is low.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A nearly stationary frontal boundary has settled just south of SDF
at this hour, however remains well north of LEX/BWG. This feature
will lift back north as a warm front through the evening as a
surface low ejects out of the southern Plains. Expect showers and a
few thunderstorms to develop ahead of this surface wave with best
coverage at SDF. BWG and LEX may not see much until the showers just
ahead of cold frontal passage Thursday morning.

Winds will be variable around SDF, however will eventually take on a
SW component overnight. Expect winds to stay between SE and SW at
LEX/BWG through the overnight. Conditions are expected to stay VFR
in the warm sector outside of any shower/storms where MVFR or worse
ceilings/visibilities will be possible.

The cold front will pass just after sunrise tomorrow with ceilings
likely deteriorating down into the IFR or low MVFR range for a good
portion of the day. NW winds will then prevail after FROPA.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 252306
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
706 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 622 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A quasi-stationary boundary has stalled just south of the Ohio River
at this hour. Meanwhile, a warm front extends from just southwest of
Owensboro into southern Illinois. Will watch this feature and our
stationary boundary lift back north through the evening hours as
surface low pressure ejects out of the southern Plains. This wave
moving along the boundary, along with increased low level jetting
will lead to more widespread convection into the overnight mainly
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

In the meantime, will watch slightly developed cu in the unstable
air south of the boundary over central KY this evening. Some hi-res
data suggests we`ll get enough convergence and destabilization for
some storms in the next few hours. However, looking at latest
mesoanalysis destabilization is slow going and there isn`t much of a
trigger yet. If any storms are able to fire and get organized, the
large T/Td spread would allow for gusty winds as soundings do show
an inverted V structure near the surface. At this point, feel the
likelihood is low.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A nearly stationary frontal boundary has settled just south of SDF
at this hour, however remains well north of LEX/BWG. This feature
will lift back north as a warm front through the evening as a
surface low ejects out of the southern Plains. Expect showers and a
few thunderstorms to develop ahead of this surface wave with best
coverage at SDF. BWG and LEX may not see much until the showers just
ahead of cold frontal passage Thursday morning.

Winds will be variable around SDF, however will eventually take on a
SW component overnight. Expect winds to stay between SE and SW at
LEX/BWG through the overnight. Conditions are expected to stay VFR
in the warm sector outside of any shower/storms where MVFR or worse
ceilings/visibilities will be possible.

The cold front will pass just after sunrise tomorrow with ceilings
likely deteriorating down into the IFR or low MVFR range for a good
portion of the day. NW winds will then prevail after FROPA.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 252306
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
706 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 622 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A quasi-stationary boundary has stalled just south of the Ohio River
at this hour. Meanwhile, a warm front extends from just southwest of
Owensboro into southern Illinois. Will watch this feature and our
stationary boundary lift back north through the evening hours as
surface low pressure ejects out of the southern Plains. This wave
moving along the boundary, along with increased low level jetting
will lead to more widespread convection into the overnight mainly
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

In the meantime, will watch slightly developed cu in the unstable
air south of the boundary over central KY this evening. Some hi-res
data suggests we`ll get enough convergence and destabilization for
some storms in the next few hours. However, looking at latest
mesoanalysis destabilization is slow going and there isn`t much of a
trigger yet. If any storms are able to fire and get organized, the
large T/Td spread would allow for gusty winds as soundings do show
an inverted V structure near the surface. At this point, feel the
likelihood is low.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A nearly stationary frontal boundary has settled just south of SDF
at this hour, however remains well north of LEX/BWG. This feature
will lift back north as a warm front through the evening as a
surface low ejects out of the southern Plains. Expect showers and a
few thunderstorms to develop ahead of this surface wave with best
coverage at SDF. BWG and LEX may not see much until the showers just
ahead of cold frontal passage Thursday morning.

Winds will be variable around SDF, however will eventually take on a
SW component overnight. Expect winds to stay between SE and SW at
LEX/BWG through the overnight. Conditions are expected to stay VFR
in the warm sector outside of any shower/storms where MVFR or worse
ceilings/visibilities will be possible.

The cold front will pass just after sunrise tomorrow with ceilings
likely deteriorating down into the IFR or low MVFR range for a good
portion of the day. NW winds will then prevail after FROPA.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 252306
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
706 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 622 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A quasi-stationary boundary has stalled just south of the Ohio River
at this hour. Meanwhile, a warm front extends from just southwest of
Owensboro into southern Illinois. Will watch this feature and our
stationary boundary lift back north through the evening hours as
surface low pressure ejects out of the southern Plains. This wave
moving along the boundary, along with increased low level jetting
will lead to more widespread convection into the overnight mainly
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

In the meantime, will watch slightly developed cu in the unstable
air south of the boundary over central KY this evening. Some hi-res
data suggests we`ll get enough convergence and destabilization for
some storms in the next few hours. However, looking at latest
mesoanalysis destabilization is slow going and there isn`t much of a
trigger yet. If any storms are able to fire and get organized, the
large T/Td spread would allow for gusty winds as soundings do show
an inverted V structure near the surface. At this point, feel the
likelihood is low.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A nearly stationary frontal boundary has settled just south of SDF
at this hour, however remains well north of LEX/BWG. This feature
will lift back north as a warm front through the evening as a
surface low ejects out of the southern Plains. Expect showers and a
few thunderstorms to develop ahead of this surface wave with best
coverage at SDF. BWG and LEX may not see much until the showers just
ahead of cold frontal passage Thursday morning.

Winds will be variable around SDF, however will eventually take on a
SW component overnight. Expect winds to stay between SE and SW at
LEX/BWG through the overnight. Conditions are expected to stay VFR
in the warm sector outside of any shower/storms where MVFR or worse
ceilings/visibilities will be possible.

The cold front will pass just after sunrise tomorrow with ceilings
likely deteriorating down into the IFR or low MVFR range for a good
portion of the day. NW winds will then prevail after FROPA.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 252306
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
706 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 622 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A quasi-stationary boundary has stalled just south of the Ohio River
at this hour. Meanwhile, a warm front extends from just southwest of
Owensboro into southern Illinois. Will watch this feature and our
stationary boundary lift back north through the evening hours as
surface low pressure ejects out of the southern Plains. This wave
moving along the boundary, along with increased low level jetting
will lead to more widespread convection into the overnight mainly
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

In the meantime, will watch slightly developed cu in the unstable
air south of the boundary over central KY this evening. Some hi-res
data suggests we`ll get enough convergence and destabilization for
some storms in the next few hours. However, looking at latest
mesoanalysis destabilization is slow going and there isn`t much of a
trigger yet. If any storms are able to fire and get organized, the
large T/Td spread would allow for gusty winds as soundings do show
an inverted V structure near the surface. At this point, feel the
likelihood is low.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A nearly stationary frontal boundary has settled just south of SDF
at this hour, however remains well north of LEX/BWG. This feature
will lift back north as a warm front through the evening as a
surface low ejects out of the southern Plains. Expect showers and a
few thunderstorms to develop ahead of this surface wave with best
coverage at SDF. BWG and LEX may not see much until the showers just
ahead of cold frontal passage Thursday morning.

Winds will be variable around SDF, however will eventually take on a
SW component overnight. Expect winds to stay between SE and SW at
LEX/BWG through the overnight. Conditions are expected to stay VFR
in the warm sector outside of any shower/storms where MVFR or worse
ceilings/visibilities will be possible.

The cold front will pass just after sunrise tomorrow with ceilings
likely deteriorating down into the IFR or low MVFR range for a good
portion of the day. NW winds will then prevail after FROPA.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 252224
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
624 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 622 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A quasi-stationary boundary has stalled just south of the Ohio River
at this hour. Meanwhile, a warm front extends from just southwest of
Owensboro into southern Illinois. Will watch this feature and our
stationary boundary lift back north through the evening hours as
surface low pressure ejects out of the southern Plains. This wave
moving along the boundary, along with increased low level jetting
will lead to more widespread convection into the overnight mainly
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

In the meantime, will watch slightly developed cu in the unstable
air south of the boundary over central KY this evening. Some hi-res
data suggests we`ll get enough convergence and destabilization for
some storms in the next few hours. However, looking at latest
mesoanalysis destabilization is slow going and there isn`t much of a
trigger yet. If any storms are able to fire and get organized, the
large T/Td spread would allow for gusty winds as soundings do show
an inverted V structure near the surface. At this point, feel the
likelihood is low.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR strato-cu ceilings and gusty SW winds will prevail for the rest
of the afternoon. Could scatter out at times, especially at SDF, but
ceilings are high enough that operational impacts are limited.
Winds will lay down and back to due south this evening, and we could
see ceilings lift slightly but will remain close to status quo.

Main challenge is timing and impact of precip that is expected along
a slow-moving cold front that enters Kentucky after midnight
tonight. Elevated instability supports thunder potential, but
difficulties in timing will limit the mention to VCTS. Stable
boundary layer will keep gust potential in check. Will keep ceilings
at least a high-end MVFR until the actual fropa after daybreak
Thursday.

Much of the day on Thursday will be marked by a classic anafront
setup with low clouds and rain. IFR ceilings are a good bet from
mid-morning through mid-afternoon, with some late improvement
expected at SDF by the end of the 24-30 hr planning period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 252224
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
624 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 622 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

A quasi-stationary boundary has stalled just south of the Ohio River
at this hour. Meanwhile, a warm front extends from just southwest of
Owensboro into southern Illinois. Will watch this feature and our
stationary boundary lift back north through the evening hours as
surface low pressure ejects out of the southern Plains. This wave
moving along the boundary, along with increased low level jetting
will lead to more widespread convection into the overnight mainly
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

In the meantime, will watch slightly developed cu in the unstable
air south of the boundary over central KY this evening. Some hi-res
data suggests we`ll get enough convergence and destabilization for
some storms in the next few hours. However, looking at latest
mesoanalysis destabilization is slow going and there isn`t much of a
trigger yet. If any storms are able to fire and get organized, the
large T/Td spread would allow for gusty winds as soundings do show
an inverted V structure near the surface. At this point, feel the
likelihood is low.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR strato-cu ceilings and gusty SW winds will prevail for the rest
of the afternoon. Could scatter out at times, especially at SDF, but
ceilings are high enough that operational impacts are limited.
Winds will lay down and back to due south this evening, and we could
see ceilings lift slightly but will remain close to status quo.

Main challenge is timing and impact of precip that is expected along
a slow-moving cold front that enters Kentucky after midnight
tonight. Elevated instability supports thunder potential, but
difficulties in timing will limit the mention to VCTS. Stable
boundary layer will keep gust potential in check. Will keep ceilings
at least a high-end MVFR until the actual fropa after daybreak
Thursday.

Much of the day on Thursday will be marked by a classic anafront
setup with low clouds and rain. IFR ceilings are a good bet from
mid-morning through mid-afternoon, with some late improvement
expected at SDF by the end of the 24-30 hr planning period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 251814
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
214 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR strato-cu ceilings and gusty SW winds will prevail for the rest
of the afternoon. Could scatter out at times, especially at SDF, but
ceilings are high enough that operational impacts are limited.
Winds will lay down and back to due south this evening, and we could
see ceilings lift slightly but will remain close to status quo.

Main challenge is timing and impact of precip that is expected along
a slow-moving cold front that enters Kentucky after midnight
tonight. Elevated instability supports thunder potential, but
difficulties in timing will limit the mention to VCTS. Stable
boundary layer will keep gust potential in check. Will keep ceilings
at least a high-end MVFR until the actual fropa after daybreak
Thursday.

Much of the day on Thursday will be marked by a classic anafront
setup with low clouds and rain. IFR ceilings are a good bet from
mid-morning through mid-afternoon, with some late improvement
expected at SDF by the end of the 24-30 hr planning period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 251814
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
214 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR strato-cu ceilings and gusty SW winds will prevail for the rest
of the afternoon. Could scatter out at times, especially at SDF, but
ceilings are high enough that operational impacts are limited.
Winds will lay down and back to due south this evening, and we could
see ceilings lift slightly but will remain close to status quo.

Main challenge is timing and impact of precip that is expected along
a slow-moving cold front that enters Kentucky after midnight
tonight. Elevated instability supports thunder potential, but
difficulties in timing will limit the mention to VCTS. Stable
boundary layer will keep gust potential in check. Will keep ceilings
at least a high-end MVFR until the actual fropa after daybreak
Thursday.

Much of the day on Thursday will be marked by a classic anafront
setup with low clouds and rain. IFR ceilings are a good bet from
mid-morning through mid-afternoon, with some late improvement
expected at SDF by the end of the 24-30 hr planning period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251814
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
214 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Broad SW flow and warm advection well established over the Ohio
Valley, with most of the area near 70 degrees with the exception of
Dubois County. A surface wave taking shape over the southern Plains
is just starting to fire convection over SE Kansas and SW Missouri,
and the main challenge will be the timing and impact of this system
as it swings through tonight.

There should be enough convergence along a quasi-stationary front
that precip will blossom ahead of the surface wave tonight, with
POPs ramping up to categorical after midnight. SPC has extended a
narrow Slight Risk as far east as I-65, with a marginal into the
Bluegrass. Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a
deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability
will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east.
Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not
play it up too much.

Cold front moves NW-SE across the area on Thursday, with widespread
precip continuing through at least the morning in a classic anafront
setup. While it will be mostly stratiform in nature, the overall
duration of precip including tonight`s convective precip will push
QPF over 1 inch in southern Indiana. Could see some nuisance
flooding in typically prone locations.

Thursday max temps will be reached early, especially north of the
Kentucky Parkways where recovery will be almost nil. By late
afternoon most locations will be in the 40s. Precip should finally
end Thursday evening in east central and south central Kentucky,
with the cold air chasing the moisture out before any change to snow
can occur.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The focus in the long term forecast is on the unseasonably cold
temperatures expected this weekend.

The synoptic pattern Friday is expected to feature an anomalously
deep upper trough axis across the eastern CONUS while at the surface
Canadian high pressure will be centered west of the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold air will be moving into the area and highs are
expected to remain in the 40s, ranging from the low 40s across
southern Indiana to upper 40s across southern Kentucky. The
mid/upper trough axis swings through during the day and 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall from around -5C Friday morning to
-10 to -12C Friday night. Steepening low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7-8 C/km combined with some low level moisture still
warrants the slight chance for instability/diurnal showers
along/east of I-65. Rain/snow/graupel all look possible based on
thermal profiles. Nothing significant or impacts expected, but
conversational winter precipitation may be falling in the afternoon
at times. It will also be blustery with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Lingering precipitation Friday afternoon should wane in the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating and as the upper trough axis
pushes east of the forecast area. A time trend analysis shows the
overall progression of this system a 3-6 hours slower, which might
keep the pressure gradient and northerly flow across the area
through Friday night. This may prevent the boundary layer from
really decoupling and hold lows up a few degrees. Nonetheless, still
looks like 20s regionwide, with the sheltered locations possibly
falling into the lower 20s. Those with agricultural interests or
sensitive vegetation should take note of these forecast freezing
temperatures.

The surface high is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Saturday
which should provide a mostly sunny but another unseasonably cold
day. Highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50. With deep troughing
aloft, a quick moving shortwave is forecast to slip through the
mid-Mississippi River Valley, staying west of the forecast area.
Plan on another unseasonably cold night Saturday as readings fall
once again into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

High pressure moves off to the east during the day Sunday and we`ll
see a slow push of southerly winds. 850 mb temperatures recover from
-10 to -13C Saturday morning to 0 to +3C by Sunday afternoon. Look
for highs in the mid/upper 50s.

25.12z guidance in fairly similar agreement showing a cold front and
shortwave trough coming through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio
Valley late Sunday into Monday. Moisture return ahead of the system
is limited but there looks to be sufficient forcing along the front
to warrant chance POPs across the area. Guidance shows the upper
level flow tries to turn zonal to slightly southwesterly, so
seasonable temperatures with highs early next week in the 50s to low
60s looks reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR strato-cu ceilings and gusty SW winds will prevail for the rest
of the afternoon. Could scatter out at times, especially at SDF, but
ceilings are high enough that operational impacts are limited.
Winds will lay down and back to due south this evening, and we could
see ceilings lift slightly but will remain close to status quo.

Main challenge is timing and impact of precip that is expected along
a slow-moving cold front that enters Kentucky after midnight
tonight. Elevated instability supports thunder potential, but
difficulties in timing will limit the mention to VCTS. Stable
boundary layer will keep gust potential in check. Will keep ceilings
at least a high-end MVFR until the actual fropa after daybreak
Thursday.

Much of the day on Thursday will be marked by a classic anafront
setup with low clouds and rain. IFR ceilings are a good bet from
mid-morning through mid-afternoon, with some late improvement
expected at SDF by the end of the 24-30 hr planning period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 251651
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1251 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip has exited to the NE as a wave lifts into the Great Lakes.
Quick update to remove the mention of morning POPs across the
Bluegrass, but otherwise we`re well on track. Will reserve the right
to update again to bump afternoon highs, should we get enough
sunshine that even mid 70s isn`t warm enough.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR strato-cu ceilings and gusty SW winds will prevail for the rest
of the afternoon. Could scatter out at times, especially at SDF, but
ceilings are high enough that operational impacts are limited.
Winds will lay down and back to due south this evening, and we could
see ceilings lift slightly but will remain close to status quo.

Main challenge is timing and impact of precip that is expected along
a slow-moving cold front that enters Kentucky after midnight
tonight. Elevated instability supports thunder potential, but
difficulties in timing will limit the mention to VCTS. Stable
boundary layer will keep gust potential in check. Will keep ceilings
at least a high-end MVFR until the actual fropa after daybreak
Thursday.

Much of the day on Thursday will be marked by a classic anafront
setup with low clouds and rain. IFR ceilings are a good bet from
mid-morning through mid-afternoon, with some late improvement
expected at SDF by the end of the 24-30 hr planning period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251651
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1251 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip has exited to the NE as a wave lifts into the Great Lakes.
Quick update to remove the mention of morning POPs across the
Bluegrass, but otherwise we`re well on track. Will reserve the right
to update again to bump afternoon highs, should we get enough
sunshine that even mid 70s isn`t warm enough.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR strato-cu ceilings and gusty SW winds will prevail for the rest
of the afternoon. Could scatter out at times, especially at SDF, but
ceilings are high enough that operational impacts are limited.
Winds will lay down and back to due south this evening, and we could
see ceilings lift slightly but will remain close to status quo.

Main challenge is timing and impact of precip that is expected along
a slow-moving cold front that enters Kentucky after midnight
tonight. Elevated instability supports thunder potential, but
difficulties in timing will limit the mention to VCTS. Stable
boundary layer will keep gust potential in check. Will keep ceilings
at least a high-end MVFR until the actual fropa after daybreak
Thursday.

Much of the day on Thursday will be marked by a classic anafront
setup with low clouds and rain. IFR ceilings are a good bet from
mid-morning through mid-afternoon, with some late improvement
expected at SDF by the end of the 24-30 hr planning period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 251651
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1251 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip has exited to the NE as a wave lifts into the Great Lakes.
Quick update to remove the mention of morning POPs across the
Bluegrass, but otherwise we`re well on track. Will reserve the right
to update again to bump afternoon highs, should we get enough
sunshine that even mid 70s isn`t warm enough.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR strato-cu ceilings and gusty SW winds will prevail for the rest
of the afternoon. Could scatter out at times, especially at SDF, but
ceilings are high enough that operational impacts are limited.
Winds will lay down and back to due south this evening, and we could
see ceilings lift slightly but will remain close to status quo.

Main challenge is timing and impact of precip that is expected along
a slow-moving cold front that enters Kentucky after midnight
tonight. Elevated instability supports thunder potential, but
difficulties in timing will limit the mention to VCTS. Stable
boundary layer will keep gust potential in check. Will keep ceilings
at least a high-end MVFR until the actual fropa after daybreak
Thursday.

Much of the day on Thursday will be marked by a classic anafront
setup with low clouds and rain. IFR ceilings are a good bet from
mid-morning through mid-afternoon, with some late improvement
expected at SDF by the end of the 24-30 hr planning period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251651
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1251 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip has exited to the NE as a wave lifts into the Great Lakes.
Quick update to remove the mention of morning POPs across the
Bluegrass, but otherwise we`re well on track. Will reserve the right
to update again to bump afternoon highs, should we get enough
sunshine that even mid 70s isn`t warm enough.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR strato-cu ceilings and gusty SW winds will prevail for the rest
of the afternoon. Could scatter out at times, especially at SDF, but
ceilings are high enough that operational impacts are limited.
Winds will lay down and back to due south this evening, and we could
see ceilings lift slightly but will remain close to status quo.

Main challenge is timing and impact of precip that is expected along
a slow-moving cold front that enters Kentucky after midnight
tonight. Elevated instability supports thunder potential, but
difficulties in timing will limit the mention to VCTS. Stable
boundary layer will keep gust potential in check. Will keep ceilings
at least a high-end MVFR until the actual fropa after daybreak
Thursday.

Much of the day on Thursday will be marked by a classic anafront
setup with low clouds and rain. IFR ceilings are a good bet from
mid-morning through mid-afternoon, with some late improvement
expected at SDF by the end of the 24-30 hr planning period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 251244
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
844 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip has exited to the NE as a wave lifts into the Great Lakes.
Quick update to remove the mention of morning POPs across the
Bluegrass, but otherwise we`re well on track. Will reserve the right
to update again to bump afternoon highs, should we get enough
sunshine that even mid 70s isn`t warm enough.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions look likely at the terminals throughout much of the
upcoming TAF period.  Some scattered low clouds will be possible
across the region as WAA regime kicks into high gear.  Latest 11-3.9
micron imagery shows some scattered to broken clouds lingering
across the region.  We expect these clouds to mix out this morning
with skies going partly to mostly sunny throughout the day.
Southwest winds of 10-12 knots are expected throughout the day.
Next round of weather to affect the terminals will be late in the
forecast period as a cold front enters the region from the west.
Based on the latest data, it appears that best chances for
precipitation at the terminals will be after 26/04Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251244
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
844 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip has exited to the NE as a wave lifts into the Great Lakes.
Quick update to remove the mention of morning POPs across the
Bluegrass, but otherwise we`re well on track. Will reserve the right
to update again to bump afternoon highs, should we get enough
sunshine that even mid 70s isn`t warm enough.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions look likely at the terminals throughout much of the
upcoming TAF period.  Some scattered low clouds will be possible
across the region as WAA regime kicks into high gear.  Latest 11-3.9
micron imagery shows some scattered to broken clouds lingering
across the region.  We expect these clouds to mix out this morning
with skies going partly to mostly sunny throughout the day.
Southwest winds of 10-12 knots are expected throughout the day.
Next round of weather to affect the terminals will be late in the
forecast period as a cold front enters the region from the west.
Based on the latest data, it appears that best chances for
precipitation at the terminals will be after 26/04Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 251244
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
844 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip has exited to the NE as a wave lifts into the Great Lakes.
Quick update to remove the mention of morning POPs across the
Bluegrass, but otherwise we`re well on track. Will reserve the right
to update again to bump afternoon highs, should we get enough
sunshine that even mid 70s isn`t warm enough.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions look likely at the terminals throughout much of the
upcoming TAF period.  Some scattered low clouds will be possible
across the region as WAA regime kicks into high gear.  Latest 11-3.9
micron imagery shows some scattered to broken clouds lingering
across the region.  We expect these clouds to mix out this morning
with skies going partly to mostly sunny throughout the day.
Southwest winds of 10-12 knots are expected throughout the day.
Next round of weather to affect the terminals will be late in the
forecast period as a cold front enters the region from the west.
Based on the latest data, it appears that best chances for
precipitation at the terminals will be after 26/04Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251244
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
844 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Precip has exited to the NE as a wave lifts into the Great Lakes.
Quick update to remove the mention of morning POPs across the
Bluegrass, but otherwise we`re well on track. Will reserve the right
to update again to bump afternoon highs, should we get enough
sunshine that even mid 70s isn`t warm enough.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions look likely at the terminals throughout much of the
upcoming TAF period.  Some scattered low clouds will be possible
across the region as WAA regime kicks into high gear.  Latest 11-3.9
micron imagery shows some scattered to broken clouds lingering
across the region.  We expect these clouds to mix out this morning
with skies going partly to mostly sunny throughout the day.
Southwest winds of 10-12 knots are expected throughout the day.
Next round of weather to affect the terminals will be late in the
forecast period as a cold front enters the region from the west.
Based on the latest data, it appears that best chances for
precipitation at the terminals will be after 26/04Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 251035
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
635 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions look likely at the terminals throughout much of the
upcoming TAF period.  Some scattered low clouds will be possible
across the region as WAA regime kicks into high gear.  Latest 11-3.9
micron imagery shows some scattered to broken clouds lingering
across the region.  We expect these clouds to mix out this morning
with skies going partly to mostly sunny throughout the day.
Southwest winds of 10-12 knots are expected throughout the day.
Next round of weather to affect the terminals will be late in the
forecast period as a cold front enters the region from the west.
Based on the latest data, it appears that best chances for
precipitation at the terminals will be after 26/04Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 251035
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
635 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions look likely at the terminals throughout much of the
upcoming TAF period.  Some scattered low clouds will be possible
across the region as WAA regime kicks into high gear.  Latest 11-3.9
micron imagery shows some scattered to broken clouds lingering
across the region.  We expect these clouds to mix out this morning
with skies going partly to mostly sunny throughout the day.
Southwest winds of 10-12 knots are expected throughout the day.
Next round of weather to affect the terminals will be late in the
forecast period as a cold front enters the region from the west.
Based on the latest data, it appears that best chances for
precipitation at the terminals will be after 26/04Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250715
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals early this morning.  A
surface frontal boundary across south-central Kentucky will continue
to lift northward during the overnight hours.  Some VCSH will be
possible at KSDF as weakening convection continues to move off to
the northeast.  Current thinking is that much of the precipitation
will pass to the north of KSDF.  As the frontal boundary lifts
northward overnight, we`ll see winds shift to the southeast and then
veer to the southwest toward morning.  As we head toward dawn,
ceilings are expected to develop downward and look to reach MVFR
levels around 25/11-13Z.  This MVFR will be short lived as
conditions should improve by mid-morning as ceilings recover to VFR
levels.  The bulk of the day Wednesday continues to look dry with a
steady southwesterly wind at all the terminals.  The next round of
convection will likely impact the TAF sites toward the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 250715
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals early this morning.  A
surface frontal boundary across south-central Kentucky will continue
to lift northward during the overnight hours.  Some VCSH will be
possible at KSDF as weakening convection continues to move off to
the northeast.  Current thinking is that much of the precipitation
will pass to the north of KSDF.  As the frontal boundary lifts
northward overnight, we`ll see winds shift to the southeast and then
veer to the southwest toward morning.  As we head toward dawn,
ceilings are expected to develop downward and look to reach MVFR
levels around 25/11-13Z.  This MVFR will be short lived as
conditions should improve by mid-morning as ceilings recover to VFR
levels.  The bulk of the day Wednesday continues to look dry with a
steady southwesterly wind at all the terminals.  The next round of
convection will likely impact the TAF sites toward the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250715
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals early this morning.  A
surface frontal boundary across south-central Kentucky will continue
to lift northward during the overnight hours.  Some VCSH will be
possible at KSDF as weakening convection continues to move off to
the northeast.  Current thinking is that much of the precipitation
will pass to the north of KSDF.  As the frontal boundary lifts
northward overnight, we`ll see winds shift to the southeast and then
veer to the southwest toward morning.  As we head toward dawn,
ceilings are expected to develop downward and look to reach MVFR
levels around 25/11-13Z.  This MVFR will be short lived as
conditions should improve by mid-morning as ceilings recover to VFR
levels.  The bulk of the day Wednesday continues to look dry with a
steady southwesterly wind at all the terminals.  The next round of
convection will likely impact the TAF sites toward the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 250715
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor.  A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning.  Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up.  Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties.  Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.

For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it.  Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector.  Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s.  However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible.  For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.

For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight.  Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours.  As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent.  Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west.  Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight.  With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection.  Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.

Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward.  Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day.  It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon.  Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening.  Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range.  This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.

Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.

Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.


A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals early this morning.  A
surface frontal boundary across south-central Kentucky will continue
to lift northward during the overnight hours.  Some VCSH will be
possible at KSDF as weakening convection continues to move off to
the northeast.  Current thinking is that much of the precipitation
will pass to the north of KSDF.  As the frontal boundary lifts
northward overnight, we`ll see winds shift to the southeast and then
veer to the southwest toward morning.  As we head toward dawn,
ceilings are expected to develop downward and look to reach MVFR
levels around 25/11-13Z.  This MVFR will be short lived as
conditions should improve by mid-morning as ceilings recover to VFR
levels.  The bulk of the day Wednesday continues to look dry with a
steady southwesterly wind at all the terminals.  The next round of
convection will likely impact the TAF sites toward the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250504
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 923 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Made some additional tweaks to the forecast this evening.  Have
upped pops substantially where rain continues to track across
portions of southern IN and northern KY.  This should quickly push
east over the next few hours, giving way to a general lull before
the convection currently over MO arrives.

The main PV anomaly and associated surface low will pass across
portions of Illinois and northern IN.  The latest SPC mesoanalysis
data shows current convection in MO is already outrunning the better
low-level instability, thus the noted weakening trend in the past
hour.  With the better upper-level forcing and low-level convergence
passing to the north near the surface low center, don`t see much
reason this convection will remain vigorous into southern
IN/northern KY.  Therefore, think a broken line of weakening showers
with some embedded rumbles of thunder seems probable over southern
IN and extreme northern KY.  Further south, have trimmed back pops
as low-level convergence will be even weaker there and instability
will be waning.  In fact, much of southern KY will likely remain dry
tonight into Wednesday morning.

Issued at 601 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Have updated the grids early this evening to account for ongoing
trends.  Convection continues to blossom in two areas early this
evening, one across MO/OK along a synoptic cold front, and another
over portions of southeast MO and southern IL in response to
increasing isentropic ascent and elevated instability atop a cool
airmass in place over the Ohio Valley.  There has recently been a
report of dime sized hail with this latter activity across southeast
MO.  The latest hi-res guidance shows this main elevated instability
axis remaining mainly off to the west through much of this evening,
so convection should continue to spark over southeast MO and western
KY and weaken as it moves away from the instability over southern IN
and central KY.

However, the latest RAP depicts this elevated instability axis
working into the southern IN and central KY later on this evening
into tonight as the low-level jet veers in response to a PV anomaly
ejecting out of the Central Plains.  Therefore, have introduced
thunder into the forecast for late this evening into the overnight
hours, mainly across southern IN and extreme northern KY.  Cannot
completely rule out some small hail, but think the more robust
updrafts capable of hail will remain off to the northwest.

Will continue to keep an eye on the second area of convection
currently across MO as it will approach the region toward dawn.
However, with the surface low passing well to the north, the focused
convergence which will be needed to make up for the loss of
instability will be passing to the north as well.  Will continue to
keep up with trends this evening as things unfold.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Surface front is now a very slow-moving warm front draped across
south-central Kentucky. Isentropic lift is triggered an area of
light rain affecting southern Indiana, and just edging into the I-64
corridor in Kentucky. Temps range from the lower/mid 40s along and
north of I-64 to the 60s in south central Kentucky.

Still looking for the front to lift northward overnight. Low-level
jetting will kick up south of the front, with 900 mb winds
increasing to 50-55 kt. Precip chances initially confined to the
north will spread over the entire area as the night progresses, in
response to the front trying to wave back to the south by morning.
Will keep POPs in the chance category and QPF fairly light. Temp
curve is non-diurnal as we expect only a slight drop this evening,
and then rising temps before daybreak as the low-level jet creates
more of a mixy boundary layer.

Even though a surface wave will scoot past to our north Wednesday
morning, the front is oriented parallel to the flow aloft and will
really be left behind. Mid-level subsidence should provide a break
from any precip, so hourly POPs will be slight chance at best for
much of the day. Temps will depend heavily on how much lingering
cloud cover we have, and the current forecast of lower 70s is a
fairly conservative one. Places that get a decent amount of sunshine
could punch well into the 70s Wednesday afternoon.

Another wave will take shape over the southern Plains and lift ENE
through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Expect widespread precip
with embedded thunder. Strong mid-level winds through a deep layer
will not need a lot of help to mix down, which supports the marginal
svr wx threat advertised by SPC. The QPF could be fairly substantial
in places, as our current grids show rainfall in excess of 1 inch
during the night over southern Indiana. Short-fuse nuisance flooding
is possible under the heavier pockets of rain.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The focus in the long term is on precipitation/temperature trends
Thursday then the unseasonably cold period Friday into this upcoming
weekend.

The synoptic pattern Thursday morning is expected to feature a
deepening and digging upper level trough through the Upper Midwest
into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure will likely be
tracking through southern Indiana into central Ohio with warmer,
moist air ahead. Highs Thursday will occur during the morning and
are are likely to be mild, in the mid 50s to low 60s. However, a
very strong cold front will cross through the forecast area over the
course of the day. 24.12z data still shows some minor timing
differences in how quickly the front passes, but overall, a
non-diurnal temperature trend is expected with readings falling into
the 40s by afternoon for much of the area.

Showers and elevated thunderstorms riding on the nose of the 850 mb
moisture transport will likely push across the area early Thursday
morning before moving off into Ohio. That leaves the post-frontal
rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm associated with the upper
level divergence within the right entrance region of the 130 kt jet.
There is some weak MUCAPE noted, on the order of 200-400 J/kg. The
upper level trough axis is expected to pass through Thursday night,
so expecting a quick shut off of precipitation west to east during
the evening. Rainfall amounts Thursday 1/3 to 1/2 of an inch look
reasonable.

Strong Canadian high pressure nosing down out of the northern Plains
will bring an anomalously cold air mass to the Ohio Valley for this
time of the year on Friday. With the deep upper trough overhead,
soundings show favorable, steep low level lapse rates of 7.5 to
8.5C/km with about 150-200mb of saturation. This could be enough to
spark scattered showers across the northern/eastern areas. Thermal
profiles would support a rain/snow/sleet pellet mix at times. Plan
on highs Friday to be stuck in the low to mid 40s with partly to
mostly cloudy skies and brisk northwest winds.

850 mb temps bottom out in the -8 to -11C range Friday night, or
about 3 standard deviations below normal. Not quite record territory
but lows Saturday morning likely to be in the low/mid 20s
regionwide. Would not be surprised if the colder, sheltered locations
fall into the mid/upper teens. Although the growing season hasn`t
fully taken off, those with agricultural interests or sensitive
vegetation should take note for the prolonged hard freezing
temperatures expected.

Below normal temperatures should continue through this upcoming
weekend as 850 mb temperatures climb slowly. The upper level flow
looks to remain northwesterly or zonal at best. A model consensus of
highs in the 40s Saturday then 50s Sunday look reasonable at this
time. 24.12z guidance showing another vigorous shortwave trough
coming down late Sunday or Monday that could reinforce colder
temperatures and bring a chance of precipitation to the area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals early this morning.  A
surface frontal boundary across south-central Kentucky will continue
to lift northward during the overnight hours.  Some VCSH will be
possible at KSDF as weakening convection continues to move off to
the northeast.  Current thinking is that much of the precipitation
will pass to the north of KSDF.  As the frontal boundary lifts
northward overnight, we`ll see winds shift to the southeast and then
veer to the southwest toward morning.  As we head toward dawn,
ceilings are expected to develop downward and look to reach MVFR
levels around 25/11-13Z.  This MVFR will be short lived as
conditions should improve by mid-morning as ceilings recover to VFR
levels.  The bulk of the day Wednesday continues to look dry with a
steady southwesterly wind at all the terminals.  The next round of
convection will likely impact the TAF sites toward the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 250504
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 923 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Made some additional tweaks to the forecast this evening.  Have
upped pops substantially where rain continues to track across
portions of southern IN and northern KY.  This should quickly push
east over the next few hours, giving way to a general lull before
the convection currently over MO arrives.

The main PV anomaly and associated surface low will pass across
portions of Illinois and northern IN.  The latest SPC mesoanalysis
data shows current convection in MO is already outrunning the better
low-level instability, thus the noted weakening trend in the past
hour.  With the better upper-level forcing and low-level convergence
passing to the north near the surface low center, don`t see much
reason this convection will remain vigorous into southern
IN/northern KY.  Therefore, think a broken line of weakening showers
with some embedded rumbles of thunder seems probable over southern
IN and extreme northern KY.  Further south, have trimmed back pops
as low-level convergence will be even weaker there and instability
will be waning.  In fact, much of southern KY will likely remain dry
tonight into Wednesday morning.

Issued at 601 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Have updated the grids early this evening to account for ongoing
trends.  Convection continues to blossom in two areas early this
evening, one across MO/OK along a synoptic cold front, and another
over portions of southeast MO and southern IL in response to
increasing isentropic ascent and elevated instability atop a cool
airmass in place over the Ohio Valley.  There has recently been a
report of dime sized hail with this latter activity across southeast
MO.  The latest hi-res guidance shows this main elevated instability
axis remaining mainly off to the west through much of this evening,
so convection should continue to spark over southeast MO and western
KY and weaken as it moves away from the instability over southern IN
and central KY.

However, the latest RAP depicts this elevated instability axis
working into the southern IN and central KY later on this evening
into tonight as the low-level jet veers in response to a PV anomaly
ejecting out of the Central Plains.  Therefore, have introduced
thunder into the forecast for late this evening into the overnight
hours, mainly across southern IN and extreme northern KY.  Cannot
completely rule out some small hail, but think the more robust
updrafts capable of hail will remain off to the northwest.

Will continue to keep an eye on the second area of convection
currently across MO as it will approach the region toward dawn.
However, with the surface low passing well to the north, the focused
convergence which will be needed to make up for the loss of
instability will be passing to the north as well.  Will continue to
keep up with trends this evening as things unfold.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Surface front is now a very slow-moving warm front draped across
south-central Kentucky. Isentropic lift is triggered an area of
light rain affecting southern Indiana, and just edging into the I-64
corridor in Kentucky. Temps range from the lower/mid 40s along and
north of I-64 to the 60s in south central Kentucky.

Still looking for the front to lift northward overnight. Low-level
jetting will kick up south of the front, with 900 mb winds
increasing to 50-55 kt. Precip chances initially confined to the
north will spread over the entire area as the night progresses, in
response to the front trying to wave back to the south by morning.
Will keep POPs in the chance category and QPF fairly light. Temp
curve is non-diurnal as we expect only a slight drop this evening,
and then rising temps before daybreak as the low-level jet creates
more of a mixy boundary layer.

Even though a surface wave will scoot past to our north Wednesday
morning, the front is oriented parallel to the flow aloft and will
really be left behind. Mid-level subsidence should provide a break
from any precip, so hourly POPs will be slight chance at best for
much of the day. Temps will depend heavily on how much lingering
cloud cover we have, and the current forecast of lower 70s is a
fairly conservative one. Places that get a decent amount of sunshine
could punch well into the 70s Wednesday afternoon.

Another wave will take shape over the southern Plains and lift ENE
through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Expect widespread precip
with embedded thunder. Strong mid-level winds through a deep layer
will not need a lot of help to mix down, which supports the marginal
svr wx threat advertised by SPC. The QPF could be fairly substantial
in places, as our current grids show rainfall in excess of 1 inch
during the night over southern Indiana. Short-fuse nuisance flooding
is possible under the heavier pockets of rain.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The focus in the long term is on precipitation/temperature trends
Thursday then the unseasonably cold period Friday into this upcoming
weekend.

The synoptic pattern Thursday morning is expected to feature a
deepening and digging upper level trough through the Upper Midwest
into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure will likely be
tracking through southern Indiana into central Ohio with warmer,
moist air ahead. Highs Thursday will occur during the morning and
are are likely to be mild, in the mid 50s to low 60s. However, a
very strong cold front will cross through the forecast area over the
course of the day. 24.12z data still shows some minor timing
differences in how quickly the front passes, but overall, a
non-diurnal temperature trend is expected with readings falling into
the 40s by afternoon for much of the area.

Showers and elevated thunderstorms riding on the nose of the 850 mb
moisture transport will likely push across the area early Thursday
morning before moving off into Ohio. That leaves the post-frontal
rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm associated with the upper
level divergence within the right entrance region of the 130 kt jet.
There is some weak MUCAPE noted, on the order of 200-400 J/kg. The
upper level trough axis is expected to pass through Thursday night,
so expecting a quick shut off of precipitation west to east during
the evening. Rainfall amounts Thursday 1/3 to 1/2 of an inch look
reasonable.

Strong Canadian high pressure nosing down out of the northern Plains
will bring an anomalously cold air mass to the Ohio Valley for this
time of the year on Friday. With the deep upper trough overhead,
soundings show favorable, steep low level lapse rates of 7.5 to
8.5C/km with about 150-200mb of saturation. This could be enough to
spark scattered showers across the northern/eastern areas. Thermal
profiles would support a rain/snow/sleet pellet mix at times. Plan
on highs Friday to be stuck in the low to mid 40s with partly to
mostly cloudy skies and brisk northwest winds.

850 mb temps bottom out in the -8 to -11C range Friday night, or
about 3 standard deviations below normal. Not quite record territory
but lows Saturday morning likely to be in the low/mid 20s
regionwide. Would not be surprised if the colder, sheltered locations
fall into the mid/upper teens. Although the growing season hasn`t
fully taken off, those with agricultural interests or sensitive
vegetation should take note for the prolonged hard freezing
temperatures expected.

Below normal temperatures should continue through this upcoming
weekend as 850 mb temperatures climb slowly. The upper level flow
looks to remain northwesterly or zonal at best. A model consensus of
highs in the 40s Saturday then 50s Sunday look reasonable at this
time. 24.12z guidance showing another vigorous shortwave trough
coming down late Sunday or Monday that could reinforce colder
temperatures and bring a chance of precipitation to the area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals early this morning.  A
surface frontal boundary across south-central Kentucky will continue
to lift northward during the overnight hours.  Some VCSH will be
possible at KSDF as weakening convection continues to move off to
the northeast.  Current thinking is that much of the precipitation
will pass to the north of KSDF.  As the frontal boundary lifts
northward overnight, we`ll see winds shift to the southeast and then
veer to the southwest toward morning.  As we head toward dawn,
ceilings are expected to develop downward and look to reach MVFR
levels around 25/11-13Z.  This MVFR will be short lived as
conditions should improve by mid-morning as ceilings recover to VFR
levels.  The bulk of the day Wednesday continues to look dry with a
steady southwesterly wind at all the terminals.  The next round of
convection will likely impact the TAF sites toward the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250504
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 923 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Made some additional tweaks to the forecast this evening.  Have
upped pops substantially where rain continues to track across
portions of southern IN and northern KY.  This should quickly push
east over the next few hours, giving way to a general lull before
the convection currently over MO arrives.

The main PV anomaly and associated surface low will pass across
portions of Illinois and northern IN.  The latest SPC mesoanalysis
data shows current convection in MO is already outrunning the better
low-level instability, thus the noted weakening trend in the past
hour.  With the better upper-level forcing and low-level convergence
passing to the north near the surface low center, don`t see much
reason this convection will remain vigorous into southern
IN/northern KY.  Therefore, think a broken line of weakening showers
with some embedded rumbles of thunder seems probable over southern
IN and extreme northern KY.  Further south, have trimmed back pops
as low-level convergence will be even weaker there and instability
will be waning.  In fact, much of southern KY will likely remain dry
tonight into Wednesday morning.

Issued at 601 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Have updated the grids early this evening to account for ongoing
trends.  Convection continues to blossom in two areas early this
evening, one across MO/OK along a synoptic cold front, and another
over portions of southeast MO and southern IL in response to
increasing isentropic ascent and elevated instability atop a cool
airmass in place over the Ohio Valley.  There has recently been a
report of dime sized hail with this latter activity across southeast
MO.  The latest hi-res guidance shows this main elevated instability
axis remaining mainly off to the west through much of this evening,
so convection should continue to spark over southeast MO and western
KY and weaken as it moves away from the instability over southern IN
and central KY.

However, the latest RAP depicts this elevated instability axis
working into the southern IN and central KY later on this evening
into tonight as the low-level jet veers in response to a PV anomaly
ejecting out of the Central Plains.  Therefore, have introduced
thunder into the forecast for late this evening into the overnight
hours, mainly across southern IN and extreme northern KY.  Cannot
completely rule out some small hail, but think the more robust
updrafts capable of hail will remain off to the northwest.

Will continue to keep an eye on the second area of convection
currently across MO as it will approach the region toward dawn.
However, with the surface low passing well to the north, the focused
convergence which will be needed to make up for the loss of
instability will be passing to the north as well.  Will continue to
keep up with trends this evening as things unfold.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Surface front is now a very slow-moving warm front draped across
south-central Kentucky. Isentropic lift is triggered an area of
light rain affecting southern Indiana, and just edging into the I-64
corridor in Kentucky. Temps range from the lower/mid 40s along and
north of I-64 to the 60s in south central Kentucky.

Still looking for the front to lift northward overnight. Low-level
jetting will kick up south of the front, with 900 mb winds
increasing to 50-55 kt. Precip chances initially confined to the
north will spread over the entire area as the night progresses, in
response to the front trying to wave back to the south by morning.
Will keep POPs in the chance category and QPF fairly light. Temp
curve is non-diurnal as we expect only a slight drop this evening,
and then rising temps before daybreak as the low-level jet creates
more of a mixy boundary layer.

Even though a surface wave will scoot past to our north Wednesday
morning, the front is oriented parallel to the flow aloft and will
really be left behind. Mid-level subsidence should provide a break
from any precip, so hourly POPs will be slight chance at best for
much of the day. Temps will depend heavily on how much lingering
cloud cover we have, and the current forecast of lower 70s is a
fairly conservative one. Places that get a decent amount of sunshine
could punch well into the 70s Wednesday afternoon.

Another wave will take shape over the southern Plains and lift ENE
through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Expect widespread precip
with embedded thunder. Strong mid-level winds through a deep layer
will not need a lot of help to mix down, which supports the marginal
svr wx threat advertised by SPC. The QPF could be fairly substantial
in places, as our current grids show rainfall in excess of 1 inch
during the night over southern Indiana. Short-fuse nuisance flooding
is possible under the heavier pockets of rain.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The focus in the long term is on precipitation/temperature trends
Thursday then the unseasonably cold period Friday into this upcoming
weekend.

The synoptic pattern Thursday morning is expected to feature a
deepening and digging upper level trough through the Upper Midwest
into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure will likely be
tracking through southern Indiana into central Ohio with warmer,
moist air ahead. Highs Thursday will occur during the morning and
are are likely to be mild, in the mid 50s to low 60s. However, a
very strong cold front will cross through the forecast area over the
course of the day. 24.12z data still shows some minor timing
differences in how quickly the front passes, but overall, a
non-diurnal temperature trend is expected with readings falling into
the 40s by afternoon for much of the area.

Showers and elevated thunderstorms riding on the nose of the 850 mb
moisture transport will likely push across the area early Thursday
morning before moving off into Ohio. That leaves the post-frontal
rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm associated with the upper
level divergence within the right entrance region of the 130 kt jet.
There is some weak MUCAPE noted, on the order of 200-400 J/kg. The
upper level trough axis is expected to pass through Thursday night,
so expecting a quick shut off of precipitation west to east during
the evening. Rainfall amounts Thursday 1/3 to 1/2 of an inch look
reasonable.

Strong Canadian high pressure nosing down out of the northern Plains
will bring an anomalously cold air mass to the Ohio Valley for this
time of the year on Friday. With the deep upper trough overhead,
soundings show favorable, steep low level lapse rates of 7.5 to
8.5C/km with about 150-200mb of saturation. This could be enough to
spark scattered showers across the northern/eastern areas. Thermal
profiles would support a rain/snow/sleet pellet mix at times. Plan
on highs Friday to be stuck in the low to mid 40s with partly to
mostly cloudy skies and brisk northwest winds.

850 mb temps bottom out in the -8 to -11C range Friday night, or
about 3 standard deviations below normal. Not quite record territory
but lows Saturday morning likely to be in the low/mid 20s
regionwide. Would not be surprised if the colder, sheltered locations
fall into the mid/upper teens. Although the growing season hasn`t
fully taken off, those with agricultural interests or sensitive
vegetation should take note for the prolonged hard freezing
temperatures expected.

Below normal temperatures should continue through this upcoming
weekend as 850 mb temperatures climb slowly. The upper level flow
looks to remain northwesterly or zonal at best. A model consensus of
highs in the 40s Saturday then 50s Sunday look reasonable at this
time. 24.12z guidance showing another vigorous shortwave trough
coming down late Sunday or Monday that could reinforce colder
temperatures and bring a chance of precipitation to the area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals early this morning.  A
surface frontal boundary across south-central Kentucky will continue
to lift northward during the overnight hours.  Some VCSH will be
possible at KSDF as weakening convection continues to move off to
the northeast.  Current thinking is that much of the precipitation
will pass to the north of KSDF.  As the frontal boundary lifts
northward overnight, we`ll see winds shift to the southeast and then
veer to the southwest toward morning.  As we head toward dawn,
ceilings are expected to develop downward and look to reach MVFR
levels around 25/11-13Z.  This MVFR will be short lived as
conditions should improve by mid-morning as ceilings recover to VFR
levels.  The bulk of the day Wednesday continues to look dry with a
steady southwesterly wind at all the terminals.  The next round of
convection will likely impact the TAF sites toward the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250504
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 923 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Made some additional tweaks to the forecast this evening.  Have
upped pops substantially where rain continues to track across
portions of southern IN and northern KY.  This should quickly push
east over the next few hours, giving way to a general lull before
the convection currently over MO arrives.

The main PV anomaly and associated surface low will pass across
portions of Illinois and northern IN.  The latest SPC mesoanalysis
data shows current convection in MO is already outrunning the better
low-level instability, thus the noted weakening trend in the past
hour.  With the better upper-level forcing and low-level convergence
passing to the north near the surface low center, don`t see much
reason this convection will remain vigorous into southern
IN/northern KY.  Therefore, think a broken line of weakening showers
with some embedded rumbles of thunder seems probable over southern
IN and extreme northern KY.  Further south, have trimmed back pops
as low-level convergence will be even weaker there and instability
will be waning.  In fact, much of southern KY will likely remain dry
tonight into Wednesday morning.

Issued at 601 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Have updated the grids early this evening to account for ongoing
trends.  Convection continues to blossom in two areas early this
evening, one across MO/OK along a synoptic cold front, and another
over portions of southeast MO and southern IL in response to
increasing isentropic ascent and elevated instability atop a cool
airmass in place over the Ohio Valley.  There has recently been a
report of dime sized hail with this latter activity across southeast
MO.  The latest hi-res guidance shows this main elevated instability
axis remaining mainly off to the west through much of this evening,
so convection should continue to spark over southeast MO and western
KY and weaken as it moves away from the instability over southern IN
and central KY.

However, the latest RAP depicts this elevated instability axis
working into the southern IN and central KY later on this evening
into tonight as the low-level jet veers in response to a PV anomaly
ejecting out of the Central Plains.  Therefore, have introduced
thunder into the forecast for late this evening into the overnight
hours, mainly across southern IN and extreme northern KY.  Cannot
completely rule out some small hail, but think the more robust
updrafts capable of hail will remain off to the northwest.

Will continue to keep an eye on the second area of convection
currently across MO as it will approach the region toward dawn.
However, with the surface low passing well to the north, the focused
convergence which will be needed to make up for the loss of
instability will be passing to the north as well.  Will continue to
keep up with trends this evening as things unfold.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Surface front is now a very slow-moving warm front draped across
south-central Kentucky. Isentropic lift is triggered an area of
light rain affecting southern Indiana, and just edging into the I-64
corridor in Kentucky. Temps range from the lower/mid 40s along and
north of I-64 to the 60s in south central Kentucky.

Still looking for the front to lift northward overnight. Low-level
jetting will kick up south of the front, with 900 mb winds
increasing to 50-55 kt. Precip chances initially confined to the
north will spread over the entire area as the night progresses, in
response to the front trying to wave back to the south by morning.
Will keep POPs in the chance category and QPF fairly light. Temp
curve is non-diurnal as we expect only a slight drop this evening,
and then rising temps before daybreak as the low-level jet creates
more of a mixy boundary layer.

Even though a surface wave will scoot past to our north Wednesday
morning, the front is oriented parallel to the flow aloft and will
really be left behind. Mid-level subsidence should provide a break
from any precip, so hourly POPs will be slight chance at best for
much of the day. Temps will depend heavily on how much lingering
cloud cover we have, and the current forecast of lower 70s is a
fairly conservative one. Places that get a decent amount of sunshine
could punch well into the 70s Wednesday afternoon.

Another wave will take shape over the southern Plains and lift ENE
through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Expect widespread precip
with embedded thunder. Strong mid-level winds through a deep layer
will not need a lot of help to mix down, which supports the marginal
svr wx threat advertised by SPC. The QPF could be fairly substantial
in places, as our current grids show rainfall in excess of 1 inch
during the night over southern Indiana. Short-fuse nuisance flooding
is possible under the heavier pockets of rain.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

The focus in the long term is on precipitation/temperature trends
Thursday then the unseasonably cold period Friday into this upcoming
weekend.

The synoptic pattern Thursday morning is expected to feature a
deepening and digging upper level trough through the Upper Midwest
into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure will likely be
tracking through southern Indiana into central Ohio with warmer,
moist air ahead. Highs Thursday will occur during the morning and
are are likely to be mild, in the mid 50s to low 60s. However, a
very strong cold front will cross through the forecast area over the
course of the day. 24.12z data still shows some minor timing
differences in how quickly the front passes, but overall, a
non-diurnal temperature trend is expected with readings falling into
the 40s by afternoon for much of the area.

Showers and elevated thunderstorms riding on the nose of the 850 mb
moisture transport will likely push across the area early Thursday
morning before moving off into Ohio. That leaves the post-frontal
rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm associated with the upper
level divergence within the right entrance region of the 130 kt jet.
There is some weak MUCAPE noted, on the order of 200-400 J/kg. The
upper level trough axis is expected to pass through Thursday night,
so expecting a quick shut off of precipitation west to east during
the evening. Rainfall amounts Thursday 1/3 to 1/2 of an inch look
reasonable.

Strong Canadian high pressure nosing down out of the northern Plains
will bring an anomalously cold air mass to the Ohio Valley for this
time of the year on Friday. With the deep upper trough overhead,
soundings show favorable, steep low level lapse rates of 7.5 to
8.5C/km with about 150-200mb of saturation. This could be enough to
spark scattered showers across the northern/eastern areas. Thermal
profiles would support a rain/snow/sleet pellet mix at times. Plan
on highs Friday to be stuck in the low to mid 40s with partly to
mostly cloudy skies and brisk northwest winds.

850 mb temps bottom out in the -8 to -11C range Friday night, or
about 3 standard deviations below normal. Not quite record territory
but lows Saturday morning likely to be in the low/mid 20s
regionwide. Would not be surprised if the colder, sheltered locations
fall into the mid/upper teens. Although the growing season hasn`t
fully taken off, those with agricultural interests or sensitive
vegetation should take note for the prolonged hard freezing
temperatures expected.

Below normal temperatures should continue through this upcoming
weekend as 850 mb temperatures climb slowly. The upper level flow
looks to remain northwesterly or zonal at best. A model consensus of
highs in the 40s Saturday then 50s Sunday look reasonable at this
time. 24.12z guidance showing another vigorous shortwave trough
coming down late Sunday or Monday that could reinforce colder
temperatures and bring a chance of precipitation to the area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals early this morning.  A
surface frontal boundary across south-central Kentucky will continue
to lift northward during the overnight hours.  Some VCSH will be
possible at KSDF as weakening convection continues to move off to
the northeast.  Current thinking is that much of the precipitation
will pass to the north of KSDF.  As the frontal boundary lifts
northward overnight, we`ll see winds shift to the southeast and then
veer to the southwest toward morning.  As we head toward dawn,
ceilings are expected to develop downward and look to reach MVFR
levels around 25/11-13Z.  This MVFR will be short lived as
conditions should improve by mid-morning as ceilings recover to VFR
levels.  The bulk of the day Wednesday continues to look dry with a
steady southwesterly wind at all the terminals.  The next round of
convection will likely impact the TAF sites toward the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......MJ







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities