Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KLMK 212310
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
710 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will move southeast of the Lake Cumberland Region by
late afternoon. A few showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm have
developed over the southern Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland Region
within a thin axis of instability right along this boundary. Any
storms will move southeast of our CWA by around 6 pm. In its wake,
significantly cooler air will arrive after midnight, as a sharp
500mb trough axis swings east of the Commonwealth by Monday
afternoon.

In the short term, skies will clear for a few hours across central
Kentucky by late afternoon. Despite brisk northwest winds this
afternoon, colder air will lag behind the actual front itself, so
early evening will stay relatively mild. Cloudiness will actually
increase by mid to late evening as steepening lapse rates may
promote some scattered to occasionally broken strato-cu diving south
from Indiana.

Robust surface high pressure will sag south and lie over Missouri
Monday morning. Skies will clear at least by dawn Monday and will
stay clear for the next several days. Lows by dawn will fall into
the lower 50s, and recover only to the mid 60s to around 70 Monday
afternoon.

With very light winds and ideal radiational cooling conditions,
temperatures early Tuesday will be the chilliest of this young fall
season. Lows early Tuesday may approach 40 across our nominally
cooler rural locations, while averaging in the upper 40s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

Surface high will ridge into the Ohio Valley from the northeast for
much of the work week, maintaining dry weather and mild temps,
albeit with a gradual warming trend as the week progresses.

Coolest day will be Tuesday, with temps limited by a chilly start,
and shallow mixing in the NE flow. Might only mix to 900mb, which
would barely allow highs to crack 70. Have gone generally with lower
70s, in line with the NAM MOS guidance but undercutting GFS MOS by
several degrees.

Temperatures will begin a slow recovery on Tuesday night, as the
thermal trof will be solidly to our east. Latter part of the week
should see temps near climo as the building ridge evolves into a Rex
block with a closed upper high over the Great Lakes. The developing
upper low over the Deep South could start to turn the pattern more
unsettled next weekend. However, confidence remains limited this far
out, so will include no more than slight chance POPs for next
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front that moved
through the area today continued to keep winds gusting to around
20kts or higher as of 2250Z. These should diminish shortly after the
TAF valid time as decoupling occurs as an inversion sets up at the
surface. However, current TAFS had these continuing through 02Z at
KLEX and KSDF, and instead of pulling them only to see them persist
beyond 00Z will leave them in for now.

Stratocumulus deck over Indiana and Illinois has decreased
considerably over the past few hours, with the leading edge along
the Ohio River now only showing up as FEW050 in SDF metar. Model
time cross sections continue to show a narrow layer of 80+ RH at or
below 850 Mb moving SE through the area overnight, but with
subsidence, this is not likely to result in anything more than
FEW-SCT overnight.

By sunrise Monday, clear skies and N-NE winds under 5 kts will close
out the valid period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........JBS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211951
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
351 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will move southeast of the Lake Cumberland region by
late afternoon. A few showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm have
developed over the southern Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland region
within a thin axis of instability right along this boundary. Any
storms will move southeast of our CWA by around 6 pm. In its wake,
significantly cooler air will arrive after midnight, as a sharp
500mb trough axis swings east of the Commonwealth by Monday
afternoon.

In the short term, skies will clear for a few hours across central
Kentucky by late afternoon. Despite brisk northwest winds this
afternoon, colder air will lag behind the actual front itself, so
early evening will stay relatively mild. Cloudiness will actually
increase by mid to late evening as steepening lapse rates may
promote some scattered to occasionally broken strato-cu diving south
from Indiana.

Robust surface high pressure will sag south and lie over Missouri
Monday morning. Skies will clear at least by dawn Monday and will
stay clear for the next several days. Lows by dawn will fall into
the lower 50s, and recover only to the mid 60s to around 70 Monday
afternoon.

With very light winds and ideal radiational cooling conditions,
temperatures early Tuesday will be the chilliest of this young fall
season. Lows early Tuesday may approach 40 across our nominally
cooler rural locations, while averaging in the upper 40s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

Surface high will ridge into the Ohio Valley from the northeast for
much of the work week, maintaining dry weather and mild temps,
albeit with a gradual warming trend as the week progresses.

Coolest day will be Tuesday, with temps limited by a chilly start,
and shallow mixing in the NE flow. Might only mix to 900mb, which
would barely allow highs to crack 70. Have gone generally with lower
70s, in line with the NAM MOS guidance but undercutting GFS MOS by
several degrees.

Temperatures will begin a slow recovery on Tuesday night, as the
thermal trof will be solidly to our east. Latter part of the week
should see temps near climo as the building ridge evolves into a Rex
block with a closed upper high over the Great Lakes. The developing
upper low over the Deep South could start to turn the pattern more
unsettled next weekend. However, confidence remains limited this far
out, so will include no more than slight chance POPs for next
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will move south of the Commonwealth by mid-afternoon.
Winds have already become northwest at SDF and LEX, and will veer to
the northwest at BWG by 19z. For the rest of this afternoon,
northwest winds will continue around 11 to 12kt, with gusts up to
18kt. Winds will become more northerly and diminish to under 10kt by
late evening. Northeasterly winds of 5 to 10 mph expected for
Monday.

The threat of any showers for BWG has essentially ended. MVFR
ceilings at BWG will lift to VFR and scatter out by 19 to 20z this
afternoon. Ceilings have will have lifted to VFR at SDF and LEX by
TAF issuance time, and will tend to clear by 20z.

Aside from scattered VFR level clouds passing through around the
late evening through the early morning hours, mostly clear skies are
expected. Monday will stay clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211951
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
351 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will move southeast of the Lake Cumberland region by
late afternoon. A few showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm have
developed over the southern Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland region
within a thin axis of instability right along this boundary. Any
storms will move southeast of our CWA by around 6 pm. In its wake,
significantly cooler air will arrive after midnight, as a sharp
500mb trough axis swings east of the Commonwealth by Monday
afternoon.

In the short term, skies will clear for a few hours across central
Kentucky by late afternoon. Despite brisk northwest winds this
afternoon, colder air will lag behind the actual front itself, so
early evening will stay relatively mild. Cloudiness will actually
increase by mid to late evening as steepening lapse rates may
promote some scattered to occasionally broken strato-cu diving south
from Indiana.

Robust surface high pressure will sag south and lie over Missouri
Monday morning. Skies will clear at least by dawn Monday and will
stay clear for the next several days. Lows by dawn will fall into
the lower 50s, and recover only to the mid 60s to around 70 Monday
afternoon.

With very light winds and ideal radiational cooling conditions,
temperatures early Tuesday will be the chilliest of this young fall
season. Lows early Tuesday may approach 40 across our nominally
cooler rural locations, while averaging in the upper 40s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

Surface high will ridge into the Ohio Valley from the northeast for
much of the work week, maintaining dry weather and mild temps,
albeit with a gradual warming trend as the week progresses.

Coolest day will be Tuesday, with temps limited by a chilly start,
and shallow mixing in the NE flow. Might only mix to 900mb, which
would barely allow highs to crack 70. Have gone generally with lower
70s, in line with the NAM MOS guidance but undercutting GFS MOS by
several degrees.

Temperatures will begin a slow recovery on Tuesday night, as the
thermal trof will be solidly to our east. Latter part of the week
should see temps near climo as the building ridge evolves into a Rex
block with a closed upper high over the Great Lakes. The developing
upper low over the Deep South could start to turn the pattern more
unsettled next weekend. However, confidence remains limited this far
out, so will include no more than slight chance POPs for next
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will move south of the Commonwealth by mid-afternoon.
Winds have already become northwest at SDF and LEX, and will veer to
the northwest at BWG by 19z. For the rest of this afternoon,
northwest winds will continue around 11 to 12kt, with gusts up to
18kt. Winds will become more northerly and diminish to under 10kt by
late evening. Northeasterly winds of 5 to 10 mph expected for
Monday.

The threat of any showers for BWG has essentially ended. MVFR
ceilings at BWG will lift to VFR and scatter out by 19 to 20z this
afternoon. Ceilings have will have lifted to VFR at SDF and LEX by
TAF issuance time, and will tend to clear by 20z.

Aside from scattered VFR level clouds passing through around the
late evening through the early morning hours, mostly clear skies are
expected. Monday will stay clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211714
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
114 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 900 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

Available moisture is decreasing across southern Indiana and along
the Ohio River. Partial clearing has already developed behind the
pre-frontal trough now over central Kentucky. For this update, have
removed precipitation chances along and northwest of the Ohio River.

The eastern edge of a thin line of convection may still graze Logan
County later this morning, bringing light amounts of rain if any at
all. Still think that by early afternoon, scattered convection may
still redevelop across our southern counties and the Lake Cumberland
Region.

The cold front itself is still over west central Indiana. It will
move south of the Ohio River by early afternoon. Colder air will
arrive well behind this boundary, so today will be a warm day.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A low pressure system sits to the north of the US/Canadian border
this morning with its cold front trailing across Michigan into
central IL. A line of showers and storms has developed ahead of this
from this morning stretching from OH to IL. This front will move
through the forecast area this morning into the early afternoon
hours.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increased early this morning
along the line. However, coverage across central IN has begun to
decrease over the last hour or so while portions further west look
better. Think coverage of storms will continue to decrease as the
line approaches our southern IN counties. Will continue with around
30% chance for precipitation for southern IN and north central KY
this morning. However, confidence is lower in areas along and just
south of the Ohio River. It does still look like there could be an
increase in coverage across portions of east and south central KY
late this morning into the early afternoon. Rain chances will
quickly decrease late this afternoon into the early evening with dry
conditions everywhere by sunset.

Despite the front moving through fairly early, temperatures are
expected to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s today. Strong cold
air advection tonight will quickly drop temperatures after sunset
with lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday will be
mostly clear and much cooler with highs in the upper 60s to around
70.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

High pressure will be passing by just to our north Monday night,
allowing for better radiational cooling conditions over the northern
half of the forecast area, where lows may touch the upper 30s in a
cold spot or two. The high will remain either to our north or
northeast the rest of the period, leaving dry conditions. Models
diverge on how they handle the trough moving through our area
tonight/Monday, but those solutions all still keep us dry through
the work week. The question mark still looks to be Saturday, but
will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures should warm through the
week, after that cold low Tuesday morning, with highs reaching
around 80 for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will move south of the Commonwealth by mid-afternoon.
Winds have already become northwest at SDF and LEX, and will veer to
the northwest at BWG by 19z. For the rest of this afternoon,
northwest winds will continue around 11 to 12kt, with gusts up to
18kt. Winds will become more northerly and diminish to under 10kt by
late evening. Northeasterly winds of 5 to 10 mph expected for
Monday.

The threat of any showers for BWG has essentially ended. MVFR
ceilings at BWG will lift to VFR and scatter out by 19 to 20z this
afternoon. Ceilings have will have lifted to VFR at SDF and LEX by
TAF issuance time, and will tend to clear by 20z.

Aside from scattered VFR level clouds passing through around the
late evening through the early morning hours, mostly clear skies are
expected. Monday will stay clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211714
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
114 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 900 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

Available moisture is decreasing across southern Indiana and along
the Ohio River. Partial clearing has already developed behind the
pre-frontal trough now over central Kentucky. For this update, have
removed precipitation chances along and northwest of the Ohio River.

The eastern edge of a thin line of convection may still graze Logan
County later this morning, bringing light amounts of rain if any at
all. Still think that by early afternoon, scattered convection may
still redevelop across our southern counties and the Lake Cumberland
Region.

The cold front itself is still over west central Indiana. It will
move south of the Ohio River by early afternoon. Colder air will
arrive well behind this boundary, so today will be a warm day.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A low pressure system sits to the north of the US/Canadian border
this morning with its cold front trailing across Michigan into
central IL. A line of showers and storms has developed ahead of this
from this morning stretching from OH to IL. This front will move
through the forecast area this morning into the early afternoon
hours.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increased early this morning
along the line. However, coverage across central IN has begun to
decrease over the last hour or so while portions further west look
better. Think coverage of storms will continue to decrease as the
line approaches our southern IN counties. Will continue with around
30% chance for precipitation for southern IN and north central KY
this morning. However, confidence is lower in areas along and just
south of the Ohio River. It does still look like there could be an
increase in coverage across portions of east and south central KY
late this morning into the early afternoon. Rain chances will
quickly decrease late this afternoon into the early evening with dry
conditions everywhere by sunset.

Despite the front moving through fairly early, temperatures are
expected to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s today. Strong cold
air advection tonight will quickly drop temperatures after sunset
with lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday will be
mostly clear and much cooler with highs in the upper 60s to around
70.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

High pressure will be passing by just to our north Monday night,
allowing for better radiational cooling conditions over the northern
half of the forecast area, where lows may touch the upper 30s in a
cold spot or two. The high will remain either to our north or
northeast the rest of the period, leaving dry conditions. Models
diverge on how they handle the trough moving through our area
tonight/Monday, but those solutions all still keep us dry through
the work week. The question mark still looks to be Saturday, but
will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures should warm through the
week, after that cold low Tuesday morning, with highs reaching
around 80 for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will move south of the Commonwealth by mid-afternoon.
Winds have already become northwest at SDF and LEX, and will veer to
the northwest at BWG by 19z. For the rest of this afternoon,
northwest winds will continue around 11 to 12kt, with gusts up to
18kt. Winds will become more northerly and diminish to under 10kt by
late evening. Northeasterly winds of 5 to 10 mph expected for
Monday.

The threat of any showers for BWG has essentially ended. MVFR
ceilings at BWG will lift to VFR and scatter out by 19 to 20z this
afternoon. Ceilings have will have lifted to VFR at SDF and LEX by
TAF issuance time, and will tend to clear by 20z.

Aside from scattered VFR level clouds passing through around the
late evening through the early morning hours, mostly clear skies are
expected. Monday will stay clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211323
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
923 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 900 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

Available moisture is decreasing across southern Indiana and along
the Ohio River. Partial clearing has already developed behind the
pre-frontal trough now over central Kentucky. For this update, have
removed precipitation chances along and northwest of the Ohio River.

The eastern edge of a thin line of convection may still graze Logan
County later this morning, bringing light amounts of rain if any at
all. Still think that by early afternoon, scattered convection may
still redevelop across our southern counties and the Lake Cumberland
Region.

The cold front itself is still over west central Indiana. It will
move south of the Ohio River by early afternoon. Colder air will
arrive well behind this boundary, so today will be a warm day.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A low pressure system sits to the north of the US/Canadian border
this morning with its cold front trailing across Michigan into
central IL. A line of showers and storms has developed ahead of this
from this morning stretching from OH to IL. This front will move
through the forecast area this morning into the early afternoon
hours.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increased early this morning
along the line. However, coverage across central IN has begun to
decrease over the last hour or so while portions further west look
better. Think coverage of storms will continue to decrease as the
line approaches our southern IN counties. Will continue with around
30% chance for precipitation for southern IN and north central KY
this morning. However, confidence is lower in areas along and just
south of the Ohio River. It does still look like there could be an
increase in coverage across portions of east and south central KY
late this morning into the early afternoon. Rain chances will
quickly decrease late this afternoon into the early evening with dry
conditions everywhere by sunset.

Despite the front moving through fairly early, temperatures are
expected to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s today. Strong cold
air advection tonight will quickly drop temperatures after sunset
with lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday will be
mostly clear and much cooler with highs in the upper 60s to around
70.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

High pressure will be passing by just to our north Monday night,
allowing for better radiational cooling conditions over the northern
half of the forecast area, where lows may touch the upper 30s in a
cold spot or two. The high will remain either to our north or
northeast the rest of the period, leaving dry conditions. Models
diverge on how they handle the trough moving through our area
tonight/Monday, but those solutions all still keep us dry through
the work week. The question mark still looks to be Saturday, but
will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures should warm through the
week, after that cold low Tuesday morning, with highs reaching
around 80 for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 628 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will approach and move through the region this morning
and early afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
be possible today. Will continue to just mention showers in the TAFs
since thunderstorms will be more isolated in nature. Winds ahead of
the front will be from the southwest this morning, shifting to the
west and then northwest as the front moves through. Wind speeds will
pick up this afternoon with gusts in the the 17-20 knot range
through the afternoon hours. Skies will become mostly clear tonight
with winds out of the northwest around 5-7 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211323
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
923 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 900 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

Available moisture is decreasing across southern Indiana and along
the Ohio River. Partial clearing has already developed behind the
pre-frontal trough now over central Kentucky. For this update, have
removed precipitation chances along and northwest of the Ohio River.

The eastern edge of a thin line of convection may still graze Logan
County later this morning, bringing light amounts of rain if any at
all. Still think that by early afternoon, scattered convection may
still redevelop across our southern counties and the Lake Cumberland
Region.

The cold front itself is still over west central Indiana. It will
move south of the Ohio River by early afternoon. Colder air will
arrive well behind this boundary, so today will be a warm day.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A low pressure system sits to the north of the US/Canadian border
this morning with its cold front trailing across Michigan into
central IL. A line of showers and storms has developed ahead of this
from this morning stretching from OH to IL. This front will move
through the forecast area this morning into the early afternoon
hours.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increased early this morning
along the line. However, coverage across central IN has begun to
decrease over the last hour or so while portions further west look
better. Think coverage of storms will continue to decrease as the
line approaches our southern IN counties. Will continue with around
30% chance for precipitation for southern IN and north central KY
this morning. However, confidence is lower in areas along and just
south of the Ohio River. It does still look like there could be an
increase in coverage across portions of east and south central KY
late this morning into the early afternoon. Rain chances will
quickly decrease late this afternoon into the early evening with dry
conditions everywhere by sunset.

Despite the front moving through fairly early, temperatures are
expected to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s today. Strong cold
air advection tonight will quickly drop temperatures after sunset
with lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday will be
mostly clear and much cooler with highs in the upper 60s to around
70.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

High pressure will be passing by just to our north Monday night,
allowing for better radiational cooling conditions over the northern
half of the forecast area, where lows may touch the upper 30s in a
cold spot or two. The high will remain either to our north or
northeast the rest of the period, leaving dry conditions. Models
diverge on how they handle the trough moving through our area
tonight/Monday, but those solutions all still keep us dry through
the work week. The question mark still looks to be Saturday, but
will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures should warm through the
week, after that cold low Tuesday morning, with highs reaching
around 80 for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 628 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will approach and move through the region this morning
and early afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
be possible today. Will continue to just mention showers in the TAFs
since thunderstorms will be more isolated in nature. Winds ahead of
the front will be from the southwest this morning, shifting to the
west and then northwest as the front moves through. Wind speeds will
pick up this afternoon with gusts in the the 17-20 knot range
through the afternoon hours. Skies will become mostly clear tonight
with winds out of the northwest around 5-7 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211029
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
629 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 628 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers have moved into southern IN
this morning along a prefrontal trough. A more organized area of
thunderstorms continues to drop to the south just west of the
forecast area. This may graze some of the far western counties in
the forecast area over the next couple of hours. Made some
adjustments to pops based on the current and expected trends. Mainly
lowered pops across southern IN after 12Z as the latest high res
models suggest this area will not see much redevelopment as the
actual front moves through.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A low pressure system sits to the north of the US/Canadian border
this morning with its cold front trailing across Michigan into
central IL. A line of showers and storms has developed ahead of this
from this morning stretching from OH to IL. This front will move
through the forecast area this morning into the early afternoon
hours.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increased early this morning
along the line. However, coverage across central IN has begun to
decrease over the last hour or so while portions further west look
better. Think coverage of storms will continue to decrease as the
line approaches our southern IN counties. Will continue with around
30% chance for precipitation for southern IN and north central KY
this morning. However, confidence is lower in areas along and just
south of the Ohio River. It does still look like there could be an
increase in coverage across portions of east and south central KY
late this morning into the early afternoon. Rain chances will
quickly decrease late this afternoon into the early evening with dry
conditions everywhere by sunset.

Despite the front moving through fairly early, temperatures are
expected to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s today. Strong cold
air advection tonight will quickly drop temperatures after sunset
with lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday will be
mostly clear and much cooler with highs in the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

High pressure will be passing by just to our north Monday night,
allowing for better radiational cooling conditions over the northern
half of the forecast area, where lows may touch the upper 30s in a
cold spot or two. The high will remain either to our north or
northeast the rest of the period, leaving dry conditions. Models
diverge on how they handle the trough moving through our area
tonight/Monday, but those solutions all still keep us dry through
the work week. The question mark still looks to be Saturday, but
will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures should warm through the
week, after that cold low Tuesday morning, with highs reaching
around 80 for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 628 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will approach and move through the region this morning
and early afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
be possible today. Will continue to just mention showers in the TAFs
since thunderstorms will be more isolated in nature. Winds ahead of
the front will be from the southwest this morning, shifting to the
west and then northwest as the front moves through. Wind speeds will
pick up this afternoon with gusts in the the 17-20 knot range
through the afternoon hours. Skies will become mostly clear tonight
with winds out of the northwest around 5-7 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211029
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
629 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 628 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers have moved into southern IN
this morning along a prefrontal trough. A more organized area of
thunderstorms continues to drop to the south just west of the
forecast area. This may graze some of the far western counties in
the forecast area over the next couple of hours. Made some
adjustments to pops based on the current and expected trends. Mainly
lowered pops across southern IN after 12Z as the latest high res
models suggest this area will not see much redevelopment as the
actual front moves through.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A low pressure system sits to the north of the US/Canadian border
this morning with its cold front trailing across Michigan into
central IL. A line of showers and storms has developed ahead of this
from this morning stretching from OH to IL. This front will move
through the forecast area this morning into the early afternoon
hours.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increased early this morning
along the line. However, coverage across central IN has begun to
decrease over the last hour or so while portions further west look
better. Think coverage of storms will continue to decrease as the
line approaches our southern IN counties. Will continue with around
30% chance for precipitation for southern IN and north central KY
this morning. However, confidence is lower in areas along and just
south of the Ohio River. It does still look like there could be an
increase in coverage across portions of east and south central KY
late this morning into the early afternoon. Rain chances will
quickly decrease late this afternoon into the early evening with dry
conditions everywhere by sunset.

Despite the front moving through fairly early, temperatures are
expected to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s today. Strong cold
air advection tonight will quickly drop temperatures after sunset
with lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday will be
mostly clear and much cooler with highs in the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

High pressure will be passing by just to our north Monday night,
allowing for better radiational cooling conditions over the northern
half of the forecast area, where lows may touch the upper 30s in a
cold spot or two. The high will remain either to our north or
northeast the rest of the period, leaving dry conditions. Models
diverge on how they handle the trough moving through our area
tonight/Monday, but those solutions all still keep us dry through
the work week. The question mark still looks to be Saturday, but
will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures should warm through the
week, after that cold low Tuesday morning, with highs reaching
around 80 for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 628 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will approach and move through the region this morning
and early afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
be possible today. Will continue to just mention showers in the TAFs
since thunderstorms will be more isolated in nature. Winds ahead of
the front will be from the southwest this morning, shifting to the
west and then northwest as the front moves through. Wind speeds will
pick up this afternoon with gusts in the the 17-20 knot range
through the afternoon hours. Skies will become mostly clear tonight
with winds out of the northwest around 5-7 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210656
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
256 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A low pressure system sits to the north of the US/Canadian border
this morning with its cold front trailing across Michigan into
central IL. A line of showers and storms has developed ahead of this
from this morning stretching from OH to IL. This front will move
through the forecast area this morning into the early afternoon
hours.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increased early this morning
along the line. However, coverage across central IN has begun to
decrease over the last hour or so while portions further west look
better. Think coverage of storms will continue to decrease as the
line approaches our southern IN counties. Will continue with around
30% chance for precipitation for southern IN and north central KY
this morning. However, confidence is lower in areas along and just
south of the Ohio River. It does still look like there could be an
increase in coverage across portions of east and south central KY
late this morning into the early afternoon. Rain chances will
quickly decrease late this afternoon into the early evening with dry
conditions everywhere by sunset.

Despite the front moving through fairly early, temperatures are
expected to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s today. Strong cold
air advection tonight will quickly drop temperatures after sunset
with lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday will be
mostly clear and much cooler with highs in the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

High pressure will be passing by just to our north Monday night,
allowing for better radiational cooling conditions over the northern
half of the forecast area, where lows may touch the upper 30s in a
cold spot or two. The high will remain either to our north or
northeast the rest of the period, leaving dry conditions. Models
diverge on how they handle the trough moving through our area
tonight/Monday, but those solutions all still keep us dry through
the work week. The question mark still looks to be Saturday, but
will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures should warm through the
week, after that cold low Tuesday morning, with highs reaching
around 80 for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will approach and move through the region today. The
first concern overnight will be the potential for LLWS as a LLJ
develops ahead of the front. Wind shear will be marginal as surface
winds are expected to pick up, but will keep the mention of it in
the TAFs. BWG may also see some light fog this morning seeing as
visibilities have already dropped a bit, so have added that in as
well.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the
front as it moves through. However, given that thunderstorm coverage
looks to be fairly low, will keep TS out of the TAFs and go with
VCSH. Winds out of the SSW this morning will shift to westerly and
then northwesterly as the front moves through and become gusty this
afternoon. Winds will relax towards sunset tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210656
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
256 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A low pressure system sits to the north of the US/Canadian border
this morning with its cold front trailing across Michigan into
central IL. A line of showers and storms has developed ahead of this
from this morning stretching from OH to IL. This front will move
through the forecast area this morning into the early afternoon
hours.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increased early this morning
along the line. However, coverage across central IN has begun to
decrease over the last hour or so while portions further west look
better. Think coverage of storms will continue to decrease as the
line approaches our southern IN counties. Will continue with around
30% chance for precipitation for southern IN and north central KY
this morning. However, confidence is lower in areas along and just
south of the Ohio River. It does still look like there could be an
increase in coverage across portions of east and south central KY
late this morning into the early afternoon. Rain chances will
quickly decrease late this afternoon into the early evening with dry
conditions everywhere by sunset.

Despite the front moving through fairly early, temperatures are
expected to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s today. Strong cold
air advection tonight will quickly drop temperatures after sunset
with lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday will be
mostly clear and much cooler with highs in the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

High pressure will be passing by just to our north Monday night,
allowing for better radiational cooling conditions over the northern
half of the forecast area, where lows may touch the upper 30s in a
cold spot or two. The high will remain either to our north or
northeast the rest of the period, leaving dry conditions. Models
diverge on how they handle the trough moving through our area
tonight/Monday, but those solutions all still keep us dry through
the work week. The question mark still looks to be Saturday, but
will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures should warm through the
week, after that cold low Tuesday morning, with highs reaching
around 80 for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will approach and move through the region today. The
first concern overnight will be the potential for LLWS as a LLJ
develops ahead of the front. Wind shear will be marginal as surface
winds are expected to pick up, but will keep the mention of it in
the TAFs. BWG may also see some light fog this morning seeing as
visibilities have already dropped a bit, so have added that in as
well.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the
front as it moves through. However, given that thunderstorm coverage
looks to be fairly low, will keep TS out of the TAFs and go with
VCSH. Winds out of the SSW this morning will shift to westerly and
then northwesterly as the front moves through and become gusty this
afternoon. Winds will relax towards sunset tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 210456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1256 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 924 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Did a quick update to simply bring hourly T/Td values closer to
currently observed values.  Also made some adjustments to the PoP
forecast overnight.  Specifically, made minor adjustments to
precipitation arrival...in that showers and storms will arrive a
little later than expected.  Showers and storms will be possible
across southern Indiana after midnight EDT.  Showers and storms will
be possible across our KY very late tonight...most likely toward
sunrise Sunday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...


Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will approach and move through the region today. The
first concern overnight will be the potential for LLWS as a LLJ
develops ahead of the front. Wind shear will be marginal as surface
winds are expected to pick up, but will keep the mention of it in
the TAFs. BWG may also see some light fog this morning seeing as
visibilities have already dropped a bit, so have added that in as
well.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the
front as it moves through. However, given that thunderstorm coverage
looks to be fairly low, will keep TS out of the TAFs and go with
VCSH. Winds out of the SSW this morning will shift to westerly and
then northwesterly as the front moves through and become gusty this
afternoon. Winds will relax towards sunset tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1256 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 924 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Did a quick update to simply bring hourly T/Td values closer to
currently observed values.  Also made some adjustments to the PoP
forecast overnight.  Specifically, made minor adjustments to
precipitation arrival...in that showers and storms will arrive a
little later than expected.  Showers and storms will be possible
across southern Indiana after midnight EDT.  Showers and storms will
be possible across our KY very late tonight...most likely toward
sunrise Sunday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...


Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will approach and move through the region today. The
first concern overnight will be the potential for LLWS as a LLJ
develops ahead of the front. Wind shear will be marginal as surface
winds are expected to pick up, but will keep the mention of it in
the TAFs. BWG may also see some light fog this morning seeing as
visibilities have already dropped a bit, so have added that in as
well.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the
front as it moves through. However, given that thunderstorm coverage
looks to be fairly low, will keep TS out of the TAFs and go with
VCSH. Winds out of the SSW this morning will shift to westerly and
then northwesterly as the front moves through and become gusty this
afternoon. Winds will relax towards sunset tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 210125
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
925 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 924 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Did a quick update to simply bring hourly T/Td values closer to
currently observed values.  Also made some adjustments to the PoP
forecast overnight.  Specifically, made minor adjustments to
precipitation arrival...in that showers and storms will arrive a
little later than expected.  Showers and storms will be possible
across southern Indiana after midnight EDT.  Showers and storms will
be possible across our KY very late tonight...most likely toward
sunrise Sunday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...


Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 709 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Cluster of convection east of KBWG will continue to slide off to the
east and weaken over the next hour.  VFR conditions are expected at
the terminals this evening and into the overnight hours with a
breezy southwesterly surface flow continuing.

While KBWG did pick up some precipitation this afternoon, current
thinking is that low-level jet cranking up overnight will prevent
fog formation down that way.  However, will continue to monitor for
a possible amendment later if fog developers.

Surface cold front will approach from the northwest tonight.  Model
time height sections continue to show a light southwesterly flow at
the surface with a low-level jet developing after midnight.
Therefore, will keep LLWS in the TAFs going for this update as
current forecast looks good.  Did add some VCSH at the terminals for
late tonight and toward daybreak Sunday as the cold front swings
through the region.  Surface winds will then shift to the west and
northwest Sunday morning as the cold front slide southeastward
across the region.  Surface wind gusts of 15-20kts will be common at
the terminals on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 210125
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
925 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 924 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Did a quick update to simply bring hourly T/Td values closer to
currently observed values.  Also made some adjustments to the PoP
forecast overnight.  Specifically, made minor adjustments to
precipitation arrival...in that showers and storms will arrive a
little later than expected.  Showers and storms will be possible
across southern Indiana after midnight EDT.  Showers and storms will
be possible across our KY very late tonight...most likely toward
sunrise Sunday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...


Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 709 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Cluster of convection east of KBWG will continue to slide off to the
east and weaken over the next hour.  VFR conditions are expected at
the terminals this evening and into the overnight hours with a
breezy southwesterly surface flow continuing.

While KBWG did pick up some precipitation this afternoon, current
thinking is that low-level jet cranking up overnight will prevent
fog formation down that way.  However, will continue to monitor for
a possible amendment later if fog developers.

Surface cold front will approach from the northwest tonight.  Model
time height sections continue to show a light southwesterly flow at
the surface with a low-level jet developing after midnight.
Therefore, will keep LLWS in the TAFs going for this update as
current forecast looks good.  Did add some VCSH at the terminals for
late tonight and toward daybreak Sunday as the cold front swings
through the region.  Surface winds will then shift to the west and
northwest Sunday morning as the cold front slide southeastward
across the region.  Surface wind gusts of 15-20kts will be common at
the terminals on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......MJ








000
FXUS63 KLMK 202309
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
709 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...


Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 709 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Cluster of convection east of KBWG will continue to slide off to the
east and weaken over the next hour.  VFR conditions are expected at
the terminals this evening and into the overnight hours with a
breezy southwesterly surface flow continuing.

While KBWG did pick up some precipitation this afternoon, current
thinking is that low-level jet cranking up overnight will prevent
fog formation down that way.  However, will continue to monitor for
a possible amendment later if fog developers.

Surface cold front will approach from the northwest tonight.  Model
time height sections continue to show a light southwesterly flow at
the surface with a low-level jet developing after midnight.
Therefore, will keep LLWS in the TAFs going for this update as
current forecast looks good.  Did add some VCSH at the terminals for
late tonight and toward daybreak Sunday as the cold front swings
through the region.  Surface winds will then shift to the west and
northwest Sunday morning as the cold front slide southeastward
across the region.  Surface wind gusts of 15-20kts will be common at
the terminals on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 202309
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
709 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...


Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 709 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Cluster of convection east of KBWG will continue to slide off to the
east and weaken over the next hour.  VFR conditions are expected at
the terminals this evening and into the overnight hours with a
breezy southwesterly surface flow continuing.

While KBWG did pick up some precipitation this afternoon, current
thinking is that low-level jet cranking up overnight will prevent
fog formation down that way.  However, will continue to monitor for
a possible amendment later if fog developers.

Surface cold front will approach from the northwest tonight.  Model
time height sections continue to show a light southwesterly flow at
the surface with a low-level jet developing after midnight.
Therefore, will keep LLWS in the TAFs going for this update as
current forecast looks good.  Did add some VCSH at the terminals for
late tonight and toward daybreak Sunday as the cold front swings
through the region.  Surface winds will then shift to the west and
northwest Sunday morning as the cold front slide southeastward
across the region.  Surface wind gusts of 15-20kts will be common at
the terminals on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201905
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...

Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper Midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set is the wind and precip impacts
associated with the cold front moving through Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period.

SW winds will be around the 12 kt threshold this afternoon with
gusts pushing 20 kt. Should decouple after sundown but will hold
onto 7-9 kt through the night. Low-level jet will really get going
after midnight, with 30 kt WSW winds at 950mb. Will include LLWS in
at least SDF and LEX for the latter part of the night.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are a possibility toward
morning, but confidence is diminishing and probabilities are now too
low to mention in the TAFs.

Look for fropa mid to late morning, with winds coming around to
westerly. Gusts will be close to 20 kt at SDF and LEX with a
well-mixed boundary layer.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201905
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...

Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper Midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set is the wind and precip impacts
associated with the cold front moving through Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period.

SW winds will be around the 12 kt threshold this afternoon with
gusts pushing 20 kt. Should decouple after sundown but will hold
onto 7-9 kt through the night. Low-level jet will really get going
after midnight, with 30 kt WSW winds at 950mb. Will include LLWS in
at least SDF and LEX for the latter part of the night.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are a possibility toward
morning, but confidence is diminishing and probabilities are now too
low to mention in the TAFs.

Look for fropa mid to late morning, with winds coming around to
westerly. Gusts will be close to 20 kt at SDF and LEX with a
well-mixed boundary layer.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........RAS








000
FXUS63 KLMK 201720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1040 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The Ohio Valley is getting a brief taste of summer before the
arrival of astronomical fall. High pressure retreating east of the
Delmarva is giving way to SSW return flow, with temps and dewpoints
accordingly on the rise.

Low-level moisture is already supporting a decent cu field over
central Kentucky. However, potential for deep convection is almost
nil due to strong mid-level capping around 750-700mb. There still
exists a potential for some very shallow showers in the heat of the
afternoon, so no changes to the going 20 POPs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set is the wind and precip impacts
associated with the cold front moving through Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period.

SW winds will be around the 12 kt threshold this afternoon with
gusts pushing 20 kt. Should decouple after sundown but will hold
onto 7-9 kt through the night. Low-level jet will really get going
after midnight, with 30 kt WSW winds at 950mb. Will include LLWS in
at least SDF and LEX for the latter part of the night.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are a possibility toward
morning, but confidence is diminishing and probabilities are now too
low to mention in the TAFs.

Look for fropa mid to late morning, with winds coming around to
westerly. Gusts will be close to 20 kt at SDF and LEX with a
well-mixed boundary layer.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1040 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The Ohio Valley is getting a brief taste of summer before the
arrival of astronomical fall. High pressure retreating east of the
Delmarva is giving way to SSW return flow, with temps and dewpoints
accordingly on the rise.

Low-level moisture is already supporting a decent cu field over
central Kentucky. However, potential for deep convection is almost
nil due to strong mid-level capping around 750-700mb. There still
exists a potential for some very shallow showers in the heat of the
afternoon, so no changes to the going 20 POPs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set is the wind and precip impacts
associated with the cold front moving through Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period.

SW winds will be around the 12 kt threshold this afternoon with
gusts pushing 20 kt. Should decouple after sundown but will hold
onto 7-9 kt through the night. Low-level jet will really get going
after midnight, with 30 kt WSW winds at 950mb. Will include LLWS in
at least SDF and LEX for the latter part of the night.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are a possibility toward
morning, but confidence is diminishing and probabilities are now too
low to mention in the TAFs.

Look for fropa mid to late morning, with winds coming around to
westerly. Gusts will be close to 20 kt at SDF and LEX with a
well-mixed boundary layer.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1056 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1040 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The Ohio Valley is getting a brief taste of summer before the
arrival of astronomical fall. High pressure retreating east of the
Delmarva is giving way to SSW return flow, with temps and dewpoints
accordingly on the rise.

Low-level moisture is already supporting a decent cu field over
central Kentucky. However, potential for deep convection is almost
nil due to strong mid-level capping around 750-700mb. There still
exists a potential for some very shallow showers in the heat of the
afternoon, so no changes to the going 20 POPs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The region will be situated between high and low pressure today with
a cold front moving through tomorrow. Winds today will be out of the
south to south-southwest and will be in the 9-12 knot range from mid
morning through the afternoon. Winds will relax around sunset
tonight but will pick up early tomorrow morning as the cold front
nears. Isolated showers may develop but coverage will be low and should
not have any impact on terminals, so will not mention it in the
TAFs. There will be a better chance for some showers at SDF around
12Z tomorrow. Scattered cu is expected to develop across the region
today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1056 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1040 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The Ohio Valley is getting a brief taste of summer before the
arrival of astronomical fall. High pressure retreating east of the
Delmarva is giving way to SSW return flow, with temps and dewpoints
accordingly on the rise.

Low-level moisture is already supporting a decent cu field over
central Kentucky. However, potential for deep convection is almost
nil due to strong mid-level capping around 750-700mb. There still
exists a potential for some very shallow showers in the heat of the
afternoon, so no changes to the going 20 POPs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The region will be situated between high and low pressure today with
a cold front moving through tomorrow. Winds today will be out of the
south to south-southwest and will be in the 9-12 knot range from mid
morning through the afternoon. Winds will relax around sunset
tonight but will pick up early tomorrow morning as the cold front
nears. Isolated showers may develop but coverage will be low and should
not have any impact on terminals, so will not mention it in the
TAFs. There will be a better chance for some showers at SDF around
12Z tomorrow. Scattered cu is expected to develop across the region
today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The region will be situated between high and low pressure today with
a cold front moving through tomorrow. Winds today will be out of the
south to south-southwest and will be in the 9-12 knot range from mid
morning through the afternoon. Winds will relax around sunset
tonight but will pick up early tomorrow morning as the cold front
nears. Isolated showers may develop but coverage will be low and should
not have any impact on terminals, so will not mention it in the
TAFs. There will be a better chance for some showers at SDF around
12Z tomorrow. Scattered cu is expected to develop across the region
today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The region will be situated between high and low pressure today with
a cold front moving through tomorrow. Winds today will be out of the
south to south-southwest and will be in the 9-12 knot range from mid
morning through the afternoon. Winds will relax around sunset
tonight but will pick up early tomorrow morning as the cold front
nears. Isolated showers may develop but coverage will be low and should
not have any impact on terminals, so will not mention it in the
TAFs. There will be a better chance for some showers at SDF around
12Z tomorrow. Scattered cu is expected to develop across the region
today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 200703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Cirrus is
streaming across the region tonight. However, some lower cloud
around 5 kft have developed across central TN and the models
continue to suggest a scattered to broken deck developing across
central KY over the next few hours. Given we are only seeing high
clouds now, will keep the low clouds scattered. Winds will remain
light overnight and will shift to SSW at all sites by morning.
Scattered cu is expected through the day. Winds will increase to
9-12 knots from mid morning through the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 200703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Cirrus is
streaming across the region tonight. However, some lower cloud
around 5 kft have developed across central TN and the models
continue to suggest a scattered to broken deck developing across
central KY over the next few hours. Given we are only seeing high
clouds now, will keep the low clouds scattered. Winds will remain
light overnight and will shift to SSW at all sites by morning.
Scattered cu is expected through the day. Winds will increase to
9-12 knots from mid morning through the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200446
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1246 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 940 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Only made minor changes to hourly forecast grids based on current
conditions.  Of note...some of the 18Z models are indicating an area
of isld showers may develop along the Ohio River due to weak
isentropic lift after sunrise.  Will not add POPs at this time, but
it may be worth considering if 0Z runs indicate the same.  Otherwise
expect a mostly clear night with some strato-cu developing late.
Low temps will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridging currently centered over New England extends
southwest along the Ohio River through Missouri. This ridge has
brought quite dry easterly winds to the Commonwealth and pristine,
almost cloud-free skies that will likely continue at least through
the evening hours.

Winds will veer to the south tonight and to the south southwest
Saturday as return flow sets up as this ridge axis sags southwards
into the Tennessee Valley. Skies will initially stay clear this
evening, but forecast soundings hint at a possibility of some
strato-cu developing and advecting north during the early morning
hours tomorrow. Despite south winds Saturday, deep moisture will not
really arrive until late afternoon or during the evening.
Temperatures early tomorrow will only fall into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Expect a warm day Saturday under partly cloudy skies with
highs reaching the lower 80s. Indeed, Saturday will be our warmest
day in well over a week.

A quick moving disturbance moving along the U.S - Canadian border
will amplify a bit as it cross the western Great Lakes Sunday
morning. By late Sunday, this feature will move across western New
England. Both the NAM and the GFS bring its associated cold front
south of the Ohio River during the late morning hours Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms may develop to our north late Saturday.
However, this boundary will be crossing the Ohio during the morning
hours, with little surface-based instability present. Scattered
convection over southern Indiana very early Sunday will likely be
weakening. The NAM especially hints at a possible re-development of
convection along our southern counties during the afternoon hours
right before the cold front clears the state. Think that the best
chances of any substantial precipitation will be north across
central and possibly southern Indiana, and to our south along our
Ky/Tn border. Highs Sunday will range from the lower 80s south to
the mid 70s north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The only rain chances in the long term will occur on Sunday as a
trough swings through the Great Lakes region, and the trailing cold
front slides through our CWA. Will continue to mention scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms along and ahead of this front
during the day. Deep moisture ahead of the front isn`t impressive
enough to warrant higher coverage. There has been a considerable
trend toward faster timing over the past 24 hours, so will actually
go dry for the Sunday night timeframe. Temperatures will be a bit
tricky on Sunday due to the frontal passage, however most spots
should find their way to the upper 70s to around 80.

Monday - Friday...

Surface high pressure will settle into the region on Monday behind
the departing front. Meanwhile, the departing upper trough axis will
push east. This will bring a cool down along with some developing
stratocu. Highs will only top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Monday night will bring lows into the 45-50 range.

We`ll be under the influence of an expansive upper level ridge and
surface high pressure Tuesday through Friday. Dry conditions will
persist with temperatures slowly trending back toward the 80 degree
mark by Thursday and Friday. After Tuesday night in the upper 40s to
around 50, overnight lows will mainly range in the mid 50s for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Cirrus is
streaming across the region tonight. However, some lower cloud
around 5 kft have developed across central TN and the models
continue to suggest a scattered to broken deck developing across
central KY over the next few hours. Given we are only seeing high
clouds now, will keep the low clouds scattered. Winds will remain
light overnight and will shift to SSW at all sites by morning.
Scattered cu is expected through the day. Winds will increase to
9-12 knots from mid morning through the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 200446
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1246 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 940 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Only made minor changes to hourly forecast grids based on current
conditions.  Of note...some of the 18Z models are indicating an area
of isld showers may develop along the Ohio River due to weak
isentropic lift after sunrise.  Will not add POPs at this time, but
it may be worth considering if 0Z runs indicate the same.  Otherwise
expect a mostly clear night with some strato-cu developing late.
Low temps will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridging currently centered over New England extends
southwest along the Ohio River through Missouri. This ridge has
brought quite dry easterly winds to the Commonwealth and pristine,
almost cloud-free skies that will likely continue at least through
the evening hours.

Winds will veer to the south tonight and to the south southwest
Saturday as return flow sets up as this ridge axis sags southwards
into the Tennessee Valley. Skies will initially stay clear this
evening, but forecast soundings hint at a possibility of some
strato-cu developing and advecting north during the early morning
hours tomorrow. Despite south winds Saturday, deep moisture will not
really arrive until late afternoon or during the evening.
Temperatures early tomorrow will only fall into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Expect a warm day Saturday under partly cloudy skies with
highs reaching the lower 80s. Indeed, Saturday will be our warmest
day in well over a week.

A quick moving disturbance moving along the U.S - Canadian border
will amplify a bit as it cross the western Great Lakes Sunday
morning. By late Sunday, this feature will move across western New
England. Both the NAM and the GFS bring its associated cold front
south of the Ohio River during the late morning hours Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms may develop to our north late Saturday.
However, this boundary will be crossing the Ohio during the morning
hours, with little surface-based instability present. Scattered
convection over southern Indiana very early Sunday will likely be
weakening. The NAM especially hints at a possible re-development of
convection along our southern counties during the afternoon hours
right before the cold front clears the state. Think that the best
chances of any substantial precipitation will be north across
central and possibly southern Indiana, and to our south along our
Ky/Tn border. Highs Sunday will range from the lower 80s south to
the mid 70s north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The only rain chances in the long term will occur on Sunday as a
trough swings through the Great Lakes region, and the trailing cold
front slides through our CWA. Will continue to mention scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms along and ahead of this front
during the day. Deep moisture ahead of the front isn`t impressive
enough to warrant higher coverage. There has been a considerable
trend toward faster timing over the past 24 hours, so will actually
go dry for the Sunday night timeframe. Temperatures will be a bit
tricky on Sunday due to the frontal passage, however most spots
should find their way to the upper 70s to around 80.

Monday - Friday...

Surface high pressure will settle into the region on Monday behind
the departing front. Meanwhile, the departing upper trough axis will
push east. This will bring a cool down along with some developing
stratocu. Highs will only top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Monday night will bring lows into the 45-50 range.

We`ll be under the influence of an expansive upper level ridge and
surface high pressure Tuesday through Friday. Dry conditions will
persist with temperatures slowly trending back toward the 80 degree
mark by Thursday and Friday. After Tuesday night in the upper 40s to
around 50, overnight lows will mainly range in the mid 50s for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Cirrus is
streaming across the region tonight. However, some lower cloud
around 5 kft have developed across central TN and the models
continue to suggest a scattered to broken deck developing across
central KY over the next few hours. Given we are only seeing high
clouds now, will keep the low clouds scattered. Winds will remain
light overnight and will shift to SSW at all sites by morning.
Scattered cu is expected through the day. Winds will increase to
9-12 knots from mid morning through the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200142
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
942 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 940 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Only made minor changes to hourly forecast grids based on current
conditions.  Of note...some of the 18Z models are indicating an area
of isld showers may develop along the Ohio River due to weak
isentropic lift after sunrise.  Will not add POPs at this time, but
it may be worth considering if 0Z runs indicate the same.  Otherwise
expect a mostly clear night with some strato-cu developing late.
Low temps will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridging currently centered over New England extends
southwest along the Ohio River through Missouri. This ridge has
brought quite dry easterly winds to the Commonwealth and pristine,
almost cloud-free skies that will likely continue at least through
the evening hours.

Winds will veer to the south tonight and to the south southwest
Saturday as return flow sets up as this ridge axis sags southwards
into the Tennessee Valley. Skies will initially stay clear this
evening, but forecast soundings hint at a possibility of some
strato-cu developing and advecting north during the early morning
hours tomorrow. Despite south winds Saturday, deep moisture will not
really arrive until late afternoon or during the evening.
Temperatures early tomorrow will only fall into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Expect a warm day Saturday under partly cloudy skies with
highs reaching the lower 80s. Indeed, Saturday will be our warmest
day in well over a week.

A quick moving disturbance moving along the U.S - Canadian border
will amplify a bit as it cross the western Great Lakes Sunday
morning. By late Sunday, this feature will move across western New
England. Both the NAM and the GFS bring its associated cold front
south of the Ohio River during the late morning hours Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms may develop to our north late Saturday.
However, this boundary will be crossing the Ohio during the morning
hours, with little surface-based instability present. Scattered
convection over southern Indiana very early Sunday will likely be
weakening. The NAM especially hints at a possible re-development of
convection along our southern counties during the afternoon hours
right before the cold front clears the state. Think that the best
chances of any substantial precipitation will be north across
central and possibly southern Indiana, and to our south along our
Ky/Tn border. Highs Sunday will range from the lower 80s south to
the mid 70s north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The only rain chances in the long term will occur on Sunday as a
trough swings through the Great Lakes region, and the trailing cold
front slides through our CWA. Will continue to mention scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms along and ahead of this front
during the day. Deep moisture ahead of the front isn`t impressive
enough to warrant higher coverage. There has been a considerable
trend toward faster timing over the past 24 hours, so will actually
go dry for the Sunday night timeframe. Temperatures will be a bit
tricky on Sunday due to the frontal passage, however most spots
should find their way to the upper 70s to around 80.

Monday - Friday...

Surface high pressure will settle into the region on Monday behind
the departing front. Meanwhile, the departing upper trough axis will
push east. This will bring a cool down along with some developing
stratocu. Highs will only top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Monday night will bring lows into the 45-50 range.

We`ll be under the influence of an expansive upper level ridge and
surface high pressure Tuesday through Friday. Dry conditions will
persist with temperatures slowly trending back toward the 80 degree
mark by Thursday and Friday. After Tuesday night in the upper 40s to
around 50, overnight lows will mainly range in the mid 50s for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period as we enter return flow
on the back side of departing high pressure.  A few things of note
to watch though.  First of all, models keep hinting at the
development of a strato-cu deck over TN late tonight that may advect
into our area from the south.  If this happens, a cig between 3-4
kft may become established at the TAF sites during the early morning
hours.  Have remained optimistic with a sct deck at this time
though.  Also, a LLJ of around 30 kts is progged to develop late
tonight which may cause borderline LLWS.  Felt that this threat was
too minimal to include in the TAFs at this time.

Sfc winds should remain ESE through the night decreasing to around
or below 5 kts after sunset.  Winds will veer more SSW for tomorrow
afternoon increasing to 8-12 kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 192323
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
723 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridging currently centered over New England extends
southwest along the Ohio River through Missouri. This ridge has
brought quite dry easterly winds to the Commonwealth and pristine,
almost cloud-free skies that will likely continue at least through
the evening hours.

Winds will veer to the south tonight and to the south southwest
Saturday as return flow sets up as this ridge axis sags southwards
into the Tennessee Valley. Skies will initially stay clear this
evening, but forecast soundings hint at a possibility of some
strato-cu developing and advecting north during the early morning
hours tomorrow. Despite south winds Saturday, deep moisture will not
really arrive until late afternoon or during the evening.
Temperatures early tomorrow will only fall into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Expect a warm day Saturday under partly cloudy skies with
highs reaching the lower 80s. Indeed, Saturday will be our warmest
day in well over a week.

A quick moving disturbance moving along the U.S - Canadian border
will amplify a bit as it cross the western Great Lakes Sunday
morning. By late Sunday, this feature will move across western New
England. Both the NAM and the GFS bring its associated cold front
south of the Ohio River during the late morning hours Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms may develop to our north late Saturday.
However, this boundary will be crossing the Ohio during the morning
hours, with little surface-based instability present. Scattered
convection over southern Indiana very early Sunday will likely be
weakening. The NAM especially hints at a possible re-development of
convection along our southern counties during the afternoon hours
right before the cold front clears the state. Think that the best
chances of any substantial precipitation will be north across
central and possibly southern Indiana, and to our south along our
Ky/Tn border. Highs Sunday will range from the lower 80s south to
the mid 70s north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The only rain chances in the long term will occur on Sunday as a
trough swings through the Great Lakes region, and the trailing cold
front slides through our CWA. Will continue to mention scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms along and ahead of this front
during the day. Deep moisture ahead of the front isn`t impressive
enough to warrant higher coverage. There has been a considerable
trend toward faster timing over the past 24 hours, so will actually
go dry for the Sunday night timeframe. Temperatures will be a bit
tricky on Sunday due to the frontal passage, however most spots
should find their way to the upper 70s to around 80.

Monday - Friday...

Surface high pressure will settle into the region on Monday behind
the departing front. Meanwhile, the departing upper trough axis will
push east. This will bring a cool down along with some developing
stratocu. Highs will only top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Monday night will bring lows into the 45-50 range.

We`ll be under the influence of an expansive upper level ridge and
surface high pressure Tuesday through Friday. Dry conditions will
persist with temperatures slowly trending back toward the 80 degree
mark by Thursday and Friday. After Tuesday night in the upper 40s to
around 50, overnight lows will mainly range in the mid 50s for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period as we enter return flow
on the back side of departing high pressure.  A few things of note
to watch though.  First of all, models keep hinting at the
development of a strato-cu deck over TN late tonight that may advect
into our area from the south.  If this happens, a cig between 3-4
kft may become established at the TAF sites during the early morning
hours.  Have remained optimistic with a sct deck at this time
though.  Also, a LLJ of around 30 kts is progged to develop late
tonight which may cause borderline LLWS.  Felt that this threat was
too minimal to include in the TAFs at this time.

Sfc winds should remain ESE through the night decreasing to around
or below 5 kts after sunset.  Winds will veer more SSW for tomorrow
afternoon increasing to 8-12 kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 191900
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridging currently centered over New England extends
southwest along the Ohio River through Missouri. This ridge has
brought quite dry easterly winds to the Commonwealth and pristine,
almost cloud-free skies that will likely continue at least through
the evening hours.

Winds will veer to the south tonight and to the south southwest
Saturday as return flow sets up as this ridge axis sags southwards
into the Tennessee Valley. Skies will initially stay clear this
evening, but forecast soundings hint at a possibility of some
strato-cu developing and advecting north during the early morning
hours tomorrow. Despite south winds Saturday, deep moisture will not
really arrive until late afternoon or during the evening.
Temperatures early tomorrow will only fall into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Expect a warm day Saturday under partly cloudy skies with
highs reaching the lower 80s. Indeed, Saturday will be our warmest
day in well over a week.

A quick moving disturbance moving along the U.S - Canadian border
will amplify a bit as it cross the western Great Lakes Sunday
morning. By late Sunday, this feature will move across western New
England. Both the NAM and the GFS bring its associated cold front
south of the Ohio River during the late morning hours Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms will develop to our north Saturday,
possibly as one or more lines of storms. However, this convection
will be weakening as it outruns better forcing and instability as it
approaches southern Indiana early Sunday morning. Temperatures
will stay quite warm Saturday night, only falling into the mid to
upper 60s as southerly surface winds will stay up.


.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The only rain chances in the long term will occur on Sunday as a
trough swings through the Great Lakes region, and the trailing cold
front slides through our CWA. Will continue to mention scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms along and ahead of this front
during the day. Deep moisture ahead of the front isn`t impressive
enough to warrant higher coverage. There has been a considerable
trend toward faster timing over the past 24 hours, so will actually
go dry for the Sunday night timeframe. Temperatures will be a bit
tricky on Sunday due to the frontal passage, however most spots
should find their way to the upper 70s to around 80.

Monday - Friday...

Surface high pressure will settle into the region on Monday behind
the departing front. Meanwhile, the departing upper trough axis will
push east. This will bring a cool down along with some developing
stratocu. Highs will only top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Monday night will bring lows into the 45-50 range.

We`ll be under the influence of an expansive upper level ridge and
surface high pressure Tuesday through Friday. Dry conditions will
persist with temperatures slowly trending back toward the 80 degree
mark by Thursday and Friday. After Tuesday night in the upper 40s to
around 50, overnight lows will mainly range in the mid 50s for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2014

No inclement weather is expected for the upcoming TAF period. High
pressure will move east towards the mid-Atlantic states. East winds
of 5 to 9kt this afternoon will veer southerly and lessen to around
5kt by morning. By Saturday afternoon, south southwest winds will
increase to around 7 to 10kts.

Clear skies will continue through the early morning hours Saturday.
Forecast soundings hint at the development of scattered to possibly
even broken strato-cu above the MVFR threshold during the pre-dawn
hours on Saturday. Partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions are
anticipated for Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Made little change to the forecast for the late morning update.
Forecast soundings show very little or no fair weather cumulus
developing this afternoon, ensuring that today will stay practically
cloud free. East winds will continue through the afternoon, at
around 6 to 9 mph. Expect a clear night with winds backing to light
southerly by morning, temperatures early Saturday will run several
degrees warmer that those of earlier today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.


.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2014

No inclement weather is expected for the upcoming TAF period. High
pressure will move east towards the mid-Atlantic states. East winds
of 5 to 9kt this afternoon will veer southerly and lessen to around
5kt by morning. By Saturday afternoon, south southwest winds will
increase to around 7 to 10kts.

Clear skies will continue through the early morning hours Saturday.
Forecast soundings hint at the development of scattered to possibly
even broken strato-cu above the MVFR threshold during the pre-dawn
hours on Saturday. Partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions are
anticipated for Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Made little change to the forecast for the late morning update.
Forecast soundings show very little or no fair weather cumulus
developing this afternoon, ensuring that today will stay practically
cloud free. East winds will continue through the afternoon, at
around 6 to 9 mph. Expect a clear night with winds backing to light
southerly by morning, temperatures early Saturday will run several
degrees warmer that those of earlier today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.


.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2014

No inclement weather is expected for the upcoming TAF period. High
pressure will move east towards the mid-Atlantic states. East winds
of 5 to 9kt this afternoon will veer southerly and lessen to around
5kt by morning. By Saturday afternoon, south southwest winds will
increase to around 7 to 10kts.

Clear skies will continue through the early morning hours Saturday.
Forecast soundings hint at the development of scattered to possibly
even broken strato-cu above the MVFR threshold during the pre-dawn
hours on Saturday. Partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions are
anticipated for Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 191608
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Made little change to the forecast for the late morning update.
Forecast soundings show very little or no fair weather cumulus
developing this afternoon, ensuring that today will stay practically
cloud free. East winds will continue through the afternoon, at
around 6 to 9 mph. Expect a clear night with winds backing to light
southerly by morning, temperatures early Saturday will run several
degrees warmer that those of earlier today.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

High pressure moving from the Great Lakes into southern New England
will provide VFR conditions across the region.  Mostly sunny skies
and a light northeasterly to easterly surface wind will be seen at
the terminals this morning through the afternoon hours.  VFR
conditions will continue into the evening and overnight hours with
winds shifting more to the south as the night wears on.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191608
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Made little change to the forecast for the late morning update.
Forecast soundings show very little or no fair weather cumulus
developing this afternoon, ensuring that today will stay practically
cloud free. East winds will continue through the afternoon, at
around 6 to 9 mph. Expect a clear night with winds backing to light
southerly by morning, temperatures early Saturday will run several
degrees warmer that those of earlier today.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

High pressure moving from the Great Lakes into southern New England
will provide VFR conditions across the region.  Mostly sunny skies
and a light northeasterly to easterly surface wind will be seen at
the terminals this morning through the afternoon hours.  VFR
conditions will continue into the evening and overnight hours with
winds shifting more to the south as the night wears on.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......







000
FXUS63 KLMK 191046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

High pressure moving from the Great Lakes into southern New England
will provide VFR conditions across the region.  Mostly sunny skies
and a light northeasterly to easterly surface wind will be seen at
the terminals this morning through the afternoon hours.  VFR
conditions will continue into the evening and overnight hours with
winds shifting more to the south as the night wears on.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 191046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

High pressure moving from the Great Lakes into southern New England
will provide VFR conditions across the region.  Mostly sunny skies
and a light northeasterly to easterly surface wind will be seen at
the terminals this morning through the afternoon hours.  VFR
conditions will continue into the evening and overnight hours with
winds shifting more to the south as the night wears on.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the remainder of
overnight period.  Light northeasterly winds are expected to stay up
overnight preventing widespread fog formation.  However, can`t rule
out some patchy fog in the typical low-lying and fog prone locations
towards sunrise.  VFR conditions are expected during the day on
Friday with a light easterly wind.  Winds should shift more to the
southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 190720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the remainder of
overnight period.  Light northeasterly winds are expected to stay up
overnight preventing widespread fog formation.  However, can`t rule
out some patchy fog in the typical low-lying and fog prone locations
towards sunrise.  VFR conditions are expected during the day on
Friday with a light easterly wind.  Winds should shift more to the
southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190518
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
118 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 935 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Updated the forecast to refresh hourly grids with obs.  Overall the
forecast looks fine with a dry, cool night ahead.  Expect mostly
clear skies with low temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

A tranquil and mild weather pattern will continue to finish out the
work week. Easterly low-level gradient has become more pronounced
today with high pressure over northern Michigan, and will keep the
boundary layer just mixy enough the next couple of nights that fog
will not be a concern. That leaves us with a temp forecast, and we
expect to see a gradual moderating trend as the surface high
retreats into New England, and the upper pattern becomes more zonal.
Given recent trends where much of the guidance has been too warm and
the NAM MOS has performed fairly well, will again lean on the low
end of the guidance envelope. Should see a decent spread in temps
tonight between the Louisville heat island and the cooler valleys,
but developing return flow Friday night should be just enough to
keep temps a bit more uniform.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The long term will begin with southerly flow and warmer temperatures
as high pressure over New England slowly shifts to the east.
Temperatures on Saturday morning will start out in the upper 50s to
lower 60s and rise into the lower to mid 80s by the afternoon. This
will be the warmest day of the long term.

An upper level trough and surface low will move across the
northeastern CONUS through the second half of the weekend and into
the early work week. This will drag a cold front through on Sunday
into Sunday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the front as it moves through. There may be a few storms
pre-dawn Sunday in southern Indiana. Rain chances will increase
through the morning as the front moves through. The best chance
looks to be in the afternoon as temps warm and the region becomes
somewhat unstable. Rain should end by Monday morning with clouds
clearing out by mid day. Temperatures will fall through this period.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s while Monday`s
highs are expected to reach only in the lower to mid 70s. Lows will
fall from the 60s to the 50s.

Monday - Thursday...

High pressure will build in at the surface behind the front. Aloft
an upper level trough will be replaced by ridging by midweek.
Tuesday will remain cool with highs in the lower 70s (possibly 60s)
and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We will then see a gradual
warming trend the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the remainder of
overnight period.  Light northeasterly winds are expected to stay up
overnight preventing widespread fog formation.  However, can`t rule
out some patchy fog in the typical low-lying and fog prone locations
towards sunrise.  VFR conditions are expected during the day on
Friday with a light easterly wind.  Winds should shift more to the
southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 190139
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
939 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 935 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Updated the forecast to refresh hourly grids with obs.  Overall the
forecast looks fine with a dry, cool night ahead.  Expect mostly
clear skies with low temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

A tranquil and mild weather pattern will continue to finish out the
work week. Easterly low-level gradient has become more pronounced
today with high pressure over northern Michigan, and will keep the
boundary layer just mixy enough the next couple of nights that fog
will not be a concern. That leaves us with a temp forecast, and we
expect to see a gradual moderating trend as the surface high
retreats into New England, and the upper pattern becomes more zonal.
Given recent trends where much of the guidance has been too warm and
the NAM MOS has performed fairly well, will again lean on the low
end of the guidance envelope. Should see a decent spread in temps
tonight between the Louisville heat island and the cooler valleys,
but developing return flow Friday night should be just enough to
keep temps a bit more uniform.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The long term will begin with southerly flow and warmer temperatures
as high pressure over New England slowly shifts to the east.
Temperatures on Saturday morning will start out in the upper 50s to
lower 60s and rise into the lower to mid 80s by the afternoon. This
will be the warmest day of the long term.

An upper level trough and surface low will move across the
northeastern CONUS through the second half of the weekend and into
the early work week. This will drag a cold front through on Sunday
into Sunday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the front as it moves through. There may be a few storms
pre-dawn Sunday in southern Indiana. Rain chances will increase
through the morning as the front moves through. The best chance
looks to be in the afternoon as temps warm and the region becomes
somewhat unstable. Rain should end by Monday morning with clouds
clearing out by mid day. Temperatures will fall through this period.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s while Monday`s
highs are expected to reach only in the lower to mid 70s. Lows will
fall from the 60s to the 50s.

Monday - Thursday...

High pressure will build in at the surface behind the front. Aloft
an upper level trough will be replaced by ridging by midweek.
Tuesday will remain cool with highs in the lower 70s (possibly 60s)
and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We will then see a gradual
warming trend the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period with sfc high
pressure controlling the region.  The latest model guidance
indicates a weak LLJ around BWG around sunrise which should provide
enough mixiness to prevent fog formation.  NE winds have stayed up
this evening as well causing a light dry air advection.  NE winds
will decrease to 3-5 kts overnight, then become more easterly for
tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 190139
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
939 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 935 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Updated the forecast to refresh hourly grids with obs.  Overall the
forecast looks fine with a dry, cool night ahead.  Expect mostly
clear skies with low temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

A tranquil and mild weather pattern will continue to finish out the
work week. Easterly low-level gradient has become more pronounced
today with high pressure over northern Michigan, and will keep the
boundary layer just mixy enough the next couple of nights that fog
will not be a concern. That leaves us with a temp forecast, and we
expect to see a gradual moderating trend as the surface high
retreats into New England, and the upper pattern becomes more zonal.
Given recent trends where much of the guidance has been too warm and
the NAM MOS has performed fairly well, will again lean on the low
end of the guidance envelope. Should see a decent spread in temps
tonight between the Louisville heat island and the cooler valleys,
but developing return flow Friday night should be just enough to
keep temps a bit more uniform.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The long term will begin with southerly flow and warmer temperatures
as high pressure over New England slowly shifts to the east.
Temperatures on Saturday morning will start out in the upper 50s to
lower 60s and rise into the lower to mid 80s by the afternoon. This
will be the warmest day of the long term.

An upper level trough and surface low will move across the
northeastern CONUS through the second half of the weekend and into
the early work week. This will drag a cold front through on Sunday
into Sunday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the front as it moves through. There may be a few storms
pre-dawn Sunday in southern Indiana. Rain chances will increase
through the morning as the front moves through. The best chance
looks to be in the afternoon as temps warm and the region becomes
somewhat unstable. Rain should end by Monday morning with clouds
clearing out by mid day. Temperatures will fall through this period.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s while Monday`s
highs are expected to reach only in the lower to mid 70s. Lows will
fall from the 60s to the 50s.

Monday - Thursday...

High pressure will build in at the surface behind the front. Aloft
an upper level trough will be replaced by ridging by midweek.
Tuesday will remain cool with highs in the lower 70s (possibly 60s)
and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We will then see a gradual
warming trend the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period with sfc high
pressure controlling the region.  The latest model guidance
indicates a weak LLJ around BWG around sunrise which should provide
enough mixiness to prevent fog formation.  NE winds have stayed up
this evening as well causing a light dry air advection.  NE winds
will decrease to 3-5 kts overnight, then become more easterly for
tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities