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000
FXUS63 KLMK 292318
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
718 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Moist airmass is generating scattered showers across our east and
right along the western border, in general around where earlier
cloud cover kept the central CWA more stable through the morning
hours. That area may yet fill in with some scattered storms as well
later this afternoon. Coverage should decrease with sunset.

Winds will increase aloft from the south overnight as a surface low
approaches the region. We should see some gusts of 15-20 knots
tomorrow as the gradient tightens over us. We may see some showers
develop along the low-level jet toward daybreak, especially west of
I-65. Coverage should spread eastward through the day, with
thunderstorms possible as convective temperatures are reached in the
afternoon. Limited the storms to scattered as there is some question
as to how close we get to those convective temperatures with the
cloud cover in place. We may see some gusty winds come down in the
stronger storms in the afternoon, but not expecting severe winds at
this point.

The storm chances will continue Saturday night as the upper trough
swings overhead. Surface low pressure will form somewhere along the
front during the day and move into southern Indiana overnight. This
low could provide some more organization to storms during the night,
and will have to watch to see how the daytime plays out, as lots of
cloud cover/showers during the day would limit the amount of
instability available for the night.

Temperatures should continue above normal most of this period, but
with the frontal passage, we may get down to normal west of I-64 by
daybreak Sunday.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Sunday - Sunday Night...

An upper system and its associated weak surface low will be passing
through our CWA Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Focus for
rainfall will mainly be along and north of the I-64 corridor where
mid level deformation will occur, and in our eastern CWA as the
system moves out. Plan on holding just a slight chance of a
lingering shower across southern IN and northern KY Sunday night as
mid level frontogenesis and moisture diminish. Forecast soundings
show thermal profiles that would appear rather unsupportive of
t-storms Sunday and Sunday night, so have backed mention off to a
slight chance on Sunday.

A decent temperature gradient should setup north to south on Sunday
as the system passes, with upper 60s north to mid and upper 70s
south. A noticeable cool down occurs Sunday night with temps
dropping to the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.

Monday - Wednesday Night...

Forecast for the first part of next week has trended drier as the
29/12Z ECMWF has jumped on board with more progressive solution with
regard to the trough axis. This generally puts us in weak and dry NW
flow and then upper ridging, as deeper moisture is shunted SE. Will
still keep some very low chance pops in our far SE Monday, but the
trend  may continue to shift drier. Temps during this time will
trend warmer with Monday highs in the low and mid 70s. By Wednesday,
highs are expected to be in the low and mid 80s. Overall, raised
temperatures due to the drier trend.

Thursday - Friday...

Lower confidence for the Thursday-Friday time frame as there is a
wider range of solutions. Models are split on whether to hang a
closed upper low over the Gulf Coast states, which would allow for
some deeper moisture to work into our SW CWA. Right now, there is
some general agreement between the GFS/GEM/GFS ensemble mean in this
scenario playing out, so will mention some small chances for
showers/storms. Temps will end up depending somewhat on the
precipitation forecast, but will stick pretty close to a consensus
blend which yields low and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 718 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The isolated showers from this afternoon will dissipate as the sun
sets, leaving us with mostly clear skies overnight. Steady south
breezes of 4 to 8 knots will keep things mixed up enough to prevent
fog from forming.

A cold front and upper trof will approach from the west on
Saturday.  Scattered showers will be possible just about any time,
even before dawn.  However, the early morning showers should
primarily be to the west and north of central Kentucky, so will hold
off until a bit later before introducing them into the TAFs.

Stratocu may form INVOF SDF before indicated in the TAF, but
ceilings should be VFR so in the interest of not over-complicating
the TAF those ceilings were lumped into the daytime (301400) time
period.

Thunder will be possible just about any time Saturday as well.  In
the TAFs will restrict it to the most likely hours.

Winds will continue from the south tomorrow and may get a little
gusty, to around 20 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292318
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
718 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Moist airmass is generating scattered showers across our east and
right along the western border, in general around where earlier
cloud cover kept the central CWA more stable through the morning
hours. That area may yet fill in with some scattered storms as well
later this afternoon. Coverage should decrease with sunset.

Winds will increase aloft from the south overnight as a surface low
approaches the region. We should see some gusts of 15-20 knots
tomorrow as the gradient tightens over us. We may see some showers
develop along the low-level jet toward daybreak, especially west of
I-65. Coverage should spread eastward through the day, with
thunderstorms possible as convective temperatures are reached in the
afternoon. Limited the storms to scattered as there is some question
as to how close we get to those convective temperatures with the
cloud cover in place. We may see some gusty winds come down in the
stronger storms in the afternoon, but not expecting severe winds at
this point.

The storm chances will continue Saturday night as the upper trough
swings overhead. Surface low pressure will form somewhere along the
front during the day and move into southern Indiana overnight. This
low could provide some more organization to storms during the night,
and will have to watch to see how the daytime plays out, as lots of
cloud cover/showers during the day would limit the amount of
instability available for the night.

Temperatures should continue above normal most of this period, but
with the frontal passage, we may get down to normal west of I-64 by
daybreak Sunday.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Sunday - Sunday Night...

An upper system and its associated weak surface low will be passing
through our CWA Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Focus for
rainfall will mainly be along and north of the I-64 corridor where
mid level deformation will occur, and in our eastern CWA as the
system moves out. Plan on holding just a slight chance of a
lingering shower across southern IN and northern KY Sunday night as
mid level frontogenesis and moisture diminish. Forecast soundings
show thermal profiles that would appear rather unsupportive of
t-storms Sunday and Sunday night, so have backed mention off to a
slight chance on Sunday.

A decent temperature gradient should setup north to south on Sunday
as the system passes, with upper 60s north to mid and upper 70s
south. A noticeable cool down occurs Sunday night with temps
dropping to the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.

Monday - Wednesday Night...

Forecast for the first part of next week has trended drier as the
29/12Z ECMWF has jumped on board with more progressive solution with
regard to the trough axis. This generally puts us in weak and dry NW
flow and then upper ridging, as deeper moisture is shunted SE. Will
still keep some very low chance pops in our far SE Monday, but the
trend  may continue to shift drier. Temps during this time will
trend warmer with Monday highs in the low and mid 70s. By Wednesday,
highs are expected to be in the low and mid 80s. Overall, raised
temperatures due to the drier trend.

Thursday - Friday...

Lower confidence for the Thursday-Friday time frame as there is a
wider range of solutions. Models are split on whether to hang a
closed upper low over the Gulf Coast states, which would allow for
some deeper moisture to work into our SW CWA. Right now, there is
some general agreement between the GFS/GEM/GFS ensemble mean in this
scenario playing out, so will mention some small chances for
showers/storms. Temps will end up depending somewhat on the
precipitation forecast, but will stick pretty close to a consensus
blend which yields low and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 718 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The isolated showers from this afternoon will dissipate as the sun
sets, leaving us with mostly clear skies overnight. Steady south
breezes of 4 to 8 knots will keep things mixed up enough to prevent
fog from forming.

A cold front and upper trof will approach from the west on
Saturday.  Scattered showers will be possible just about any time,
even before dawn.  However, the early morning showers should
primarily be to the west and north of central Kentucky, so will hold
off until a bit later before introducing them into the TAFs.

Stratocu may form INVOF SDF before indicated in the TAF, but
ceilings should be VFR so in the interest of not over-complicating
the TAF those ceilings were lumped into the daytime (301400) time
period.

Thunder will be possible just about any time Saturday as well.  In
the TAFs will restrict it to the most likely hours.

Winds will continue from the south tomorrow and may get a little
gusty, to around 20 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292318
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
718 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Moist airmass is generating scattered showers across our east and
right along the western border, in general around where earlier
cloud cover kept the central CWA more stable through the morning
hours. That area may yet fill in with some scattered storms as well
later this afternoon. Coverage should decrease with sunset.

Winds will increase aloft from the south overnight as a surface low
approaches the region. We should see some gusts of 15-20 knots
tomorrow as the gradient tightens over us. We may see some showers
develop along the low-level jet toward daybreak, especially west of
I-65. Coverage should spread eastward through the day, with
thunderstorms possible as convective temperatures are reached in the
afternoon. Limited the storms to scattered as there is some question
as to how close we get to those convective temperatures with the
cloud cover in place. We may see some gusty winds come down in the
stronger storms in the afternoon, but not expecting severe winds at
this point.

The storm chances will continue Saturday night as the upper trough
swings overhead. Surface low pressure will form somewhere along the
front during the day and move into southern Indiana overnight. This
low could provide some more organization to storms during the night,
and will have to watch to see how the daytime plays out, as lots of
cloud cover/showers during the day would limit the amount of
instability available for the night.

Temperatures should continue above normal most of this period, but
with the frontal passage, we may get down to normal west of I-64 by
daybreak Sunday.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Sunday - Sunday Night...

An upper system and its associated weak surface low will be passing
through our CWA Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Focus for
rainfall will mainly be along and north of the I-64 corridor where
mid level deformation will occur, and in our eastern CWA as the
system moves out. Plan on holding just a slight chance of a
lingering shower across southern IN and northern KY Sunday night as
mid level frontogenesis and moisture diminish. Forecast soundings
show thermal profiles that would appear rather unsupportive of
t-storms Sunday and Sunday night, so have backed mention off to a
slight chance on Sunday.

A decent temperature gradient should setup north to south on Sunday
as the system passes, with upper 60s north to mid and upper 70s
south. A noticeable cool down occurs Sunday night with temps
dropping to the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.

Monday - Wednesday Night...

Forecast for the first part of next week has trended drier as the
29/12Z ECMWF has jumped on board with more progressive solution with
regard to the trough axis. This generally puts us in weak and dry NW
flow and then upper ridging, as deeper moisture is shunted SE. Will
still keep some very low chance pops in our far SE Monday, but the
trend  may continue to shift drier. Temps during this time will
trend warmer with Monday highs in the low and mid 70s. By Wednesday,
highs are expected to be in the low and mid 80s. Overall, raised
temperatures due to the drier trend.

Thursday - Friday...

Lower confidence for the Thursday-Friday time frame as there is a
wider range of solutions. Models are split on whether to hang a
closed upper low over the Gulf Coast states, which would allow for
some deeper moisture to work into our SW CWA. Right now, there is
some general agreement between the GFS/GEM/GFS ensemble mean in this
scenario playing out, so will mention some small chances for
showers/storms. Temps will end up depending somewhat on the
precipitation forecast, but will stick pretty close to a consensus
blend which yields low and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 718 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The isolated showers from this afternoon will dissipate as the sun
sets, leaving us with mostly clear skies overnight. Steady south
breezes of 4 to 8 knots will keep things mixed up enough to prevent
fog from forming.

A cold front and upper trof will approach from the west on
Saturday.  Scattered showers will be possible just about any time,
even before dawn.  However, the early morning showers should
primarily be to the west and north of central Kentucky, so will hold
off until a bit later before introducing them into the TAFs.

Stratocu may form INVOF SDF before indicated in the TAF, but
ceilings should be VFR so in the interest of not over-complicating
the TAF those ceilings were lumped into the daytime (301400) time
period.

Thunder will be possible just about any time Saturday as well.  In
the TAFs will restrict it to the most likely hours.

Winds will continue from the south tomorrow and may get a little
gusty, to around 20 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292318
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
718 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Moist airmass is generating scattered showers across our east and
right along the western border, in general around where earlier
cloud cover kept the central CWA more stable through the morning
hours. That area may yet fill in with some scattered storms as well
later this afternoon. Coverage should decrease with sunset.

Winds will increase aloft from the south overnight as a surface low
approaches the region. We should see some gusts of 15-20 knots
tomorrow as the gradient tightens over us. We may see some showers
develop along the low-level jet toward daybreak, especially west of
I-65. Coverage should spread eastward through the day, with
thunderstorms possible as convective temperatures are reached in the
afternoon. Limited the storms to scattered as there is some question
as to how close we get to those convective temperatures with the
cloud cover in place. We may see some gusty winds come down in the
stronger storms in the afternoon, but not expecting severe winds at
this point.

The storm chances will continue Saturday night as the upper trough
swings overhead. Surface low pressure will form somewhere along the
front during the day and move into southern Indiana overnight. This
low could provide some more organization to storms during the night,
and will have to watch to see how the daytime plays out, as lots of
cloud cover/showers during the day would limit the amount of
instability available for the night.

Temperatures should continue above normal most of this period, but
with the frontal passage, we may get down to normal west of I-64 by
daybreak Sunday.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Sunday - Sunday Night...

An upper system and its associated weak surface low will be passing
through our CWA Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Focus for
rainfall will mainly be along and north of the I-64 corridor where
mid level deformation will occur, and in our eastern CWA as the
system moves out. Plan on holding just a slight chance of a
lingering shower across southern IN and northern KY Sunday night as
mid level frontogenesis and moisture diminish. Forecast soundings
show thermal profiles that would appear rather unsupportive of
t-storms Sunday and Sunday night, so have backed mention off to a
slight chance on Sunday.

A decent temperature gradient should setup north to south on Sunday
as the system passes, with upper 60s north to mid and upper 70s
south. A noticeable cool down occurs Sunday night with temps
dropping to the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.

Monday - Wednesday Night...

Forecast for the first part of next week has trended drier as the
29/12Z ECMWF has jumped on board with more progressive solution with
regard to the trough axis. This generally puts us in weak and dry NW
flow and then upper ridging, as deeper moisture is shunted SE. Will
still keep some very low chance pops in our far SE Monday, but the
trend  may continue to shift drier. Temps during this time will
trend warmer with Monday highs in the low and mid 70s. By Wednesday,
highs are expected to be in the low and mid 80s. Overall, raised
temperatures due to the drier trend.

Thursday - Friday...

Lower confidence for the Thursday-Friday time frame as there is a
wider range of solutions. Models are split on whether to hang a
closed upper low over the Gulf Coast states, which would allow for
some deeper moisture to work into our SW CWA. Right now, there is
some general agreement between the GFS/GEM/GFS ensemble mean in this
scenario playing out, so will mention some small chances for
showers/storms. Temps will end up depending somewhat on the
precipitation forecast, but will stick pretty close to a consensus
blend which yields low and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 718 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The isolated showers from this afternoon will dissipate as the sun
sets, leaving us with mostly clear skies overnight. Steady south
breezes of 4 to 8 knots will keep things mixed up enough to prevent
fog from forming.

A cold front and upper trof will approach from the west on
Saturday.  Scattered showers will be possible just about any time,
even before dawn.  However, the early morning showers should
primarily be to the west and north of central Kentucky, so will hold
off until a bit later before introducing them into the TAFs.

Stratocu may form INVOF SDF before indicated in the TAF, but
ceilings should be VFR so in the interest of not over-complicating
the TAF those ceilings were lumped into the daytime (301400) time
period.

Thunder will be possible just about any time Saturday as well.  In
the TAFs will restrict it to the most likely hours.

Winds will continue from the south tomorrow and may get a little
gusty, to around 20 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291915
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Moist airmass is generating scattered showers across our east and
right along the western border, in general around where earlier
cloud cover kept the central CWA more stable through the morning
hours. That area may yet fill in with some scattered storms as well
later this afternoon. Coverage should decrease with sunset.

Winds will increase aloft from the south overnight as a surface low
approaches the region. We should see some gusts of 15-20 knots
tomorrow as the gradient tightens over us. We may see some showers
develop along the low-level jet toward daybreak, especially west of
I-65. Coverage should spread eastward through the day, with
thunderstorms possible as convective temperatures are reached in the
afternoon. Limited the storms to scattered as there is some question
as to how close we get to those convective temperatures with the
cloud cover in place. We may see some gusty winds come down in the
stronger storms in the afternoon, but not expecting severe winds at
this point.

The storm chances will continue Saturday night as the upper trough
swings overhead. Surface low pressure will form somewhere along the
front during the day and move into southern Indiana overnight. This
low could provide some more organization to storms during the night,
and will have to watch to see how the daytime plays out, as lots of
cloud cover/showers during the day would limit the amount of
instability available for the night.

Temperatures should continue above normal most of this period, but
with the frontal passage, we may get down to normal west of I-64 by
daybreak Sunday.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Sunday - Sunday Night...

An upper system and its associated weak surface low will be passing
through our CWA Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Focus for
rainfall will mainly be along and north of the I-64 corridor where
mid level deformation will occur, and in our eastern CWA as the
system moves out. Plan on holding just a slight chance of a
lingering shower across southern IN and northern KY Sunday night as
mid level frontogenesis and moisture diminish. Forecast soundings
show thermal profiles that would appear rather unsupportive of
t-storms Sunday and Sunday night, so have backed mention off to a
slight chance on Sunday.

A decent temperature gradient should setup north to south on Sunday
as the system passes, with upper 60s north to mid and upper 70s
south. A noticeable cool down occurs Sunday night with temps
dropping to the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.

Monday - Wednesday Night...

Forecast for the first part of next week has trended drier as the
29/12Z ECMWF has jumped on board with more progressive solution with
regard to the trough axis. This generally puts us in weak and dry NW
flow and then upper ridging, as deeper moisture is shunted SE. Will
still keep some very low chance pops in our far SE Monday, but the
trend  may continue to shift drier. Temps during this time will
trend warmer with Monday highs in the low and mid 70s. By Wednesday,
highs are expected to be in the low and mid 80s. Overall, raised
temperatures due to the drier trend.

Thursday - Friday...

Lower confidence for the Thursday-Friday time frame as there is a
wider range of solutions. Models are split on whether to hang a
closed upper low over the Gulf Coast states, which would allow for
some deeper moisture to work into our SW CWA. Right now, there is
some general agreement between the GFS/GEM/GFS ensemble mean in this
scenario playing out, so will mention some small chances for
showers/storms. Temps will end up depending somewhat on the
precipitation forecast, but will stick pretty close to a consensus
blend which yields low and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 120 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Have some showers out there at this time. A few rumbles of thunder
are possible, but think coverage of storms will be isolated enough
to leave out of this set of TAFs. Have winds from the south, and
showers forming in the subsequent moist environment. Should get a
break with sunset from further showers, but an early start for
additional showers Saturday, as a front approaches the region. Winds
will gust from the south during the day Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291915
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Moist airmass is generating scattered showers across our east and
right along the western border, in general around where earlier
cloud cover kept the central CWA more stable through the morning
hours. That area may yet fill in with some scattered storms as well
later this afternoon. Coverage should decrease with sunset.

Winds will increase aloft from the south overnight as a surface low
approaches the region. We should see some gusts of 15-20 knots
tomorrow as the gradient tightens over us. We may see some showers
develop along the low-level jet toward daybreak, especially west of
I-65. Coverage should spread eastward through the day, with
thunderstorms possible as convective temperatures are reached in the
afternoon. Limited the storms to scattered as there is some question
as to how close we get to those convective temperatures with the
cloud cover in place. We may see some gusty winds come down in the
stronger storms in the afternoon, but not expecting severe winds at
this point.

The storm chances will continue Saturday night as the upper trough
swings overhead. Surface low pressure will form somewhere along the
front during the day and move into southern Indiana overnight. This
low could provide some more organization to storms during the night,
and will have to watch to see how the daytime plays out, as lots of
cloud cover/showers during the day would limit the amount of
instability available for the night.

Temperatures should continue above normal most of this period, but
with the frontal passage, we may get down to normal west of I-64 by
daybreak Sunday.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Sunday - Sunday Night...

An upper system and its associated weak surface low will be passing
through our CWA Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Focus for
rainfall will mainly be along and north of the I-64 corridor where
mid level deformation will occur, and in our eastern CWA as the
system moves out. Plan on holding just a slight chance of a
lingering shower across southern IN and northern KY Sunday night as
mid level frontogenesis and moisture diminish. Forecast soundings
show thermal profiles that would appear rather unsupportive of
t-storms Sunday and Sunday night, so have backed mention off to a
slight chance on Sunday.

A decent temperature gradient should setup north to south on Sunday
as the system passes, with upper 60s north to mid and upper 70s
south. A noticeable cool down occurs Sunday night with temps
dropping to the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.

Monday - Wednesday Night...

Forecast for the first part of next week has trended drier as the
29/12Z ECMWF has jumped on board with more progressive solution with
regard to the trough axis. This generally puts us in weak and dry NW
flow and then upper ridging, as deeper moisture is shunted SE. Will
still keep some very low chance pops in our far SE Monday, but the
trend  may continue to shift drier. Temps during this time will
trend warmer with Monday highs in the low and mid 70s. By Wednesday,
highs are expected to be in the low and mid 80s. Overall, raised
temperatures due to the drier trend.

Thursday - Friday...

Lower confidence for the Thursday-Friday time frame as there is a
wider range of solutions. Models are split on whether to hang a
closed upper low over the Gulf Coast states, which would allow for
some deeper moisture to work into our SW CWA. Right now, there is
some general agreement between the GFS/GEM/GFS ensemble mean in this
scenario playing out, so will mention some small chances for
showers/storms. Temps will end up depending somewhat on the
precipitation forecast, but will stick pretty close to a consensus
blend which yields low and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 120 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Have some showers out there at this time. A few rumbles of thunder
are possible, but think coverage of storms will be isolated enough
to leave out of this set of TAFs. Have winds from the south, and
showers forming in the subsequent moist environment. Should get a
break with sunset from further showers, but an early start for
additional showers Saturday, as a front approaches the region. Winds
will gust from the south during the day Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291915
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Moist airmass is generating scattered showers across our east and
right along the western border, in general around where earlier
cloud cover kept the central CWA more stable through the morning
hours. That area may yet fill in with some scattered storms as well
later this afternoon. Coverage should decrease with sunset.

Winds will increase aloft from the south overnight as a surface low
approaches the region. We should see some gusts of 15-20 knots
tomorrow as the gradient tightens over us. We may see some showers
develop along the low-level jet toward daybreak, especially west of
I-65. Coverage should spread eastward through the day, with
thunderstorms possible as convective temperatures are reached in the
afternoon. Limited the storms to scattered as there is some question
as to how close we get to those convective temperatures with the
cloud cover in place. We may see some gusty winds come down in the
stronger storms in the afternoon, but not expecting severe winds at
this point.

The storm chances will continue Saturday night as the upper trough
swings overhead. Surface low pressure will form somewhere along the
front during the day and move into southern Indiana overnight. This
low could provide some more organization to storms during the night,
and will have to watch to see how the daytime plays out, as lots of
cloud cover/showers during the day would limit the amount of
instability available for the night.

Temperatures should continue above normal most of this period, but
with the frontal passage, we may get down to normal west of I-64 by
daybreak Sunday.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Sunday - Sunday Night...

An upper system and its associated weak surface low will be passing
through our CWA Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Focus for
rainfall will mainly be along and north of the I-64 corridor where
mid level deformation will occur, and in our eastern CWA as the
system moves out. Plan on holding just a slight chance of a
lingering shower across southern IN and northern KY Sunday night as
mid level frontogenesis and moisture diminish. Forecast soundings
show thermal profiles that would appear rather unsupportive of
t-storms Sunday and Sunday night, so have backed mention off to a
slight chance on Sunday.

A decent temperature gradient should setup north to south on Sunday
as the system passes, with upper 60s north to mid and upper 70s
south. A noticeable cool down occurs Sunday night with temps
dropping to the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.

Monday - Wednesday Night...

Forecast for the first part of next week has trended drier as the
29/12Z ECMWF has jumped on board with more progressive solution with
regard to the trough axis. This generally puts us in weak and dry NW
flow and then upper ridging, as deeper moisture is shunted SE. Will
still keep some very low chance pops in our far SE Monday, but the
trend  may continue to shift drier. Temps during this time will
trend warmer with Monday highs in the low and mid 70s. By Wednesday,
highs are expected to be in the low and mid 80s. Overall, raised
temperatures due to the drier trend.

Thursday - Friday...

Lower confidence for the Thursday-Friday time frame as there is a
wider range of solutions. Models are split on whether to hang a
closed upper low over the Gulf Coast states, which would allow for
some deeper moisture to work into our SW CWA. Right now, there is
some general agreement between the GFS/GEM/GFS ensemble mean in this
scenario playing out, so will mention some small chances for
showers/storms. Temps will end up depending somewhat on the
precipitation forecast, but will stick pretty close to a consensus
blend which yields low and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 120 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Have some showers out there at this time. A few rumbles of thunder
are possible, but think coverage of storms will be isolated enough
to leave out of this set of TAFs. Have winds from the south, and
showers forming in the subsequent moist environment. Should get a
break with sunset from further showers, but an early start for
additional showers Saturday, as a front approaches the region. Winds
will gust from the south during the day Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291719
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
119 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 940 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

High-res model forecast reflectivity show bands of precipitation
getting started as early as the next hour. Just a little bit of
sunshine would help to provide showers compared to the extensive
cloud cover yesterday that prevented showers until the afternoon.
Coverage should be more widespread than yesterday, but capped it at
scattered (30-50%). Temperatures will vary through the day based on
where those showers/storms popped up, but in general have highs in
the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 120 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Have some showers out there at this time. A few rumbles of thunder
are possible, but think coverage of storms will be isolated enough
to leave out of this set of TAFs. Have winds from the south, and
showers forming in the subsequent moist environment. Should get a
break with sunset from further showers, but an early start for
additional showers Saturday, as a front approaches the region. Winds
will gust from the south during the day Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291719
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
119 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 940 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

High-res model forecast reflectivity show bands of precipitation
getting started as early as the next hour. Just a little bit of
sunshine would help to provide showers compared to the extensive
cloud cover yesterday that prevented showers until the afternoon.
Coverage should be more widespread than yesterday, but capped it at
scattered (30-50%). Temperatures will vary through the day based on
where those showers/storms popped up, but in general have highs in
the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 120 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Have some showers out there at this time. A few rumbles of thunder
are possible, but think coverage of storms will be isolated enough
to leave out of this set of TAFs. Have winds from the south, and
showers forming in the subsequent moist environment. Should get a
break with sunset from further showers, but an early start for
additional showers Saturday, as a front approaches the region. Winds
will gust from the south during the day Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291719
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
119 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 940 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

High-res model forecast reflectivity show bands of precipitation
getting started as early as the next hour. Just a little bit of
sunshine would help to provide showers compared to the extensive
cloud cover yesterday that prevented showers until the afternoon.
Coverage should be more widespread than yesterday, but capped it at
scattered (30-50%). Temperatures will vary through the day based on
where those showers/storms popped up, but in general have highs in
the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 120 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Have some showers out there at this time. A few rumbles of thunder
are possible, but think coverage of storms will be isolated enough
to leave out of this set of TAFs. Have winds from the south, and
showers forming in the subsequent moist environment. Should get a
break with sunset from further showers, but an early start for
additional showers Saturday, as a front approaches the region. Winds
will gust from the south during the day Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291719
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
119 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 940 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

High-res model forecast reflectivity show bands of precipitation
getting started as early as the next hour. Just a little bit of
sunshine would help to provide showers compared to the extensive
cloud cover yesterday that prevented showers until the afternoon.
Coverage should be more widespread than yesterday, but capped it at
scattered (30-50%). Temperatures will vary through the day based on
where those showers/storms popped up, but in general have highs in
the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 120 PM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Have some showers out there at this time. A few rumbles of thunder
are possible, but think coverage of storms will be isolated enough
to leave out of this set of TAFs. Have winds from the south, and
showers forming in the subsequent moist environment. Should get a
break with sunset from further showers, but an early start for
additional showers Saturday, as a front approaches the region. Winds
will gust from the south during the day Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291347
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
947 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 940 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

High-res model forecast reflectivity show bands of precipitation
getting started as early as the next hour. Just a little bit of
sunshine would help to provide showers compared to the extensive
cloud cover yesterday that prevented showers until the afternoon.
Coverage should be more widespread than yesterday, but capped it at
scattered (30-50%). Temperatures will vary through the day based on
where those showers/storms popped up, but in general have highs in
the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Some light fog/low stratus will be possible at the TAF sites this
morning.  Any restrictions should remain in the high end MVFR
category and be brief.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291347
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
947 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 940 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

High-res model forecast reflectivity show bands of precipitation
getting started as early as the next hour. Just a little bit of
sunshine would help to provide showers compared to the extensive
cloud cover yesterday that prevented showers until the afternoon.
Coverage should be more widespread than yesterday, but capped it at
scattered (30-50%). Temperatures will vary through the day based on
where those showers/storms popped up, but in general have highs in
the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Some light fog/low stratus will be possible at the TAF sites this
morning.  Any restrictions should remain in the high end MVFR
category and be brief.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Some light fog/low stratus will be possible at the TAF sites this
morning.  Any restrictions should remain in the high end MVFR
category and be brief.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Some light fog/low stratus will be possible at the TAF sites this
morning.  Any restrictions should remain in the high end MVFR
category and be brief.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290800
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Light fog/low stratus will once again pose a TAF challenge for
tonight.  LEX did receive some light rain late this evening so think
that this TAF site will probably see the worst flight conditions
toward sunrise.  Went ahead and dropped their cigs to low end MVFR.
They could dip into the IFR cat as well, but not confident enough to
add this to the TAFs attm.  With low level winds slightly elevated
just off the sfc, think that low end MVFR is more likely.  BWG/SDF
should still see MVFR conditions after 9Z as well.  Flight
conditions should return to VFR after sunrise with perhaps LEX
taking a bit more time to recover.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290800
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Light fog/low stratus will once again pose a TAF challenge for
tonight.  LEX did receive some light rain late this evening so think
that this TAF site will probably see the worst flight conditions
toward sunrise.  Went ahead and dropped their cigs to low end MVFR.
They could dip into the IFR cat as well, but not confident enough to
add this to the TAFs attm.  With low level winds slightly elevated
just off the sfc, think that low end MVFR is more likely.  BWG/SDF
should still see MVFR conditions after 9Z as well.  Flight
conditions should return to VFR after sunrise with perhaps LEX
taking a bit more time to recover.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290533
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
133 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Increased POPs to 20-30% over portions of south central and east
central KY overnight as showery activity has picked up in these
areas over the last hour.  According to the 0Z NAM, this light
activity should persist through the overnight hours.

Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Light fog/low stratus will once again pose a TAF challenge for
tonight.  LEX did receive some light rain late this evening so think
that this TAF site will probably see the worst flight conditions
toward sunrise.  Went ahead and dropped their cigs to low end MVFR.
They could dip into the IFR cat as well, but not confident enough to
add this to the TAFs attm.  With low level winds slightly elevated
just off the sfc, think that low end MVFR is more likely.  BWG/SDF
should still see MVFR conditions after 9Z as well.  Flight
conditions should return to VFR after sunrise with perhaps LEX
taking a bit more time to recover.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290533
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
133 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Increased POPs to 20-30% over portions of south central and east
central KY overnight as showery activity has picked up in these
areas over the last hour.  According to the 0Z NAM, this light
activity should persist through the overnight hours.

Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Light fog/low stratus will once again pose a TAF challenge for
tonight.  LEX did receive some light rain late this evening so think
that this TAF site will probably see the worst flight conditions
toward sunrise.  Went ahead and dropped their cigs to low end MVFR.
They could dip into the IFR cat as well, but not confident enough to
add this to the TAFs attm.  With low level winds slightly elevated
just off the sfc, think that low end MVFR is more likely.  BWG/SDF
should still see MVFR conditions after 9Z as well.  Flight
conditions should return to VFR after sunrise with perhaps LEX
taking a bit more time to recover.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290533
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
133 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Increased POPs to 20-30% over portions of south central and east
central KY overnight as showery activity has picked up in these
areas over the last hour.  According to the 0Z NAM, this light
activity should persist through the overnight hours.

Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Light fog/low stratus will once again pose a TAF challenge for
tonight.  LEX did receive some light rain late this evening so think
that this TAF site will probably see the worst flight conditions
toward sunrise.  Went ahead and dropped their cigs to low end MVFR.
They could dip into the IFR cat as well, but not confident enough to
add this to the TAFs attm.  With low level winds slightly elevated
just off the sfc, think that low end MVFR is more likely.  BWG/SDF
should still see MVFR conditions after 9Z as well.  Flight
conditions should return to VFR after sunrise with perhaps LEX
taking a bit more time to recover.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290417
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Increased POPs to 20-30% over portions of south central and east
central KY overnight as showery activity has picked up in these
areas over the last hour.  According to the 0Z NAM, this light
activity should persist through the overnight hours.

Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Another complex overnight TAF period is in store as lingering
low-level moisture will combine with weak low-level moisture
transport to potentially cause flight restrictions.  All sites
should remain VFR and precipitation-free through at least 06Z
tonight.  After 06Z, light fog and/or low stratus will be possible.
There will be more of a gradient wind tonight (around 5 knots by
12Z) which should help limit any dense fog.  Also, the breaks in the
clouds this afternoon allowed all sites to mix dewpoints into the
mid 60s, which is below the crossover temperatures.  However,
guidance continues to hint at an MVFR deck developing just before
sunrise as low-level moisture transport commences ahead of a
disturbance passing to the northwest.  It appears the lowest
restrictions will likely be at KBWG where fuel-alternate or even
high-end IFR conditions may be possible, with KLEX and KSDF expected
to see high-end MVFR cigs/vsbys.  Admittedly, this is not a high
confidence scenario.

For tomorrow, the low cloud deck may once again hang on into the
late morning or early afternoon hours, which may once again limit
afternoon instability.  Therefore, will continue with VCSH wording
and not include any VCTS mention until trends in cloud cover and
resultant instability are better ascertained.  Winds will be out of
the SSW around 10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290417
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Increased POPs to 20-30% over portions of south central and east
central KY overnight as showery activity has picked up in these
areas over the last hour.  According to the 0Z NAM, this light
activity should persist through the overnight hours.

Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Another complex overnight TAF period is in store as lingering
low-level moisture will combine with weak low-level moisture
transport to potentially cause flight restrictions.  All sites
should remain VFR and precipitation-free through at least 06Z
tonight.  After 06Z, light fog and/or low stratus will be possible.
There will be more of a gradient wind tonight (around 5 knots by
12Z) which should help limit any dense fog.  Also, the breaks in the
clouds this afternoon allowed all sites to mix dewpoints into the
mid 60s, which is below the crossover temperatures.  However,
guidance continues to hint at an MVFR deck developing just before
sunrise as low-level moisture transport commences ahead of a
disturbance passing to the northwest.  It appears the lowest
restrictions will likely be at KBWG where fuel-alternate or even
high-end IFR conditions may be possible, with KLEX and KSDF expected
to see high-end MVFR cigs/vsbys.  Admittedly, this is not a high
confidence scenario.

For tomorrow, the low cloud deck may once again hang on into the
late morning or early afternoon hours, which may once again limit
afternoon instability.  Therefore, will continue with VCSH wording
and not include any VCTS mention until trends in cloud cover and
resultant instability are better ascertained.  Winds will be out of
the SSW around 10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 282327
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
727 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Another complex overnight TAF period is in store as lingering
low-level moisture will combine with weak low-level moisture
transport to potentially cause flight restrictions.  All sites
should remain VFR and precipitation-free through at least 06Z
tonight.  After 06Z, light fog and/or low stratus will be possible.
There will be more of a gradient wind tonight (around 5 knots by
12Z) which should help limit any dense fog.  Also, the breaks in the
clouds this afternoon allowed all sites to mix dewpoints into the
mid 60s, which is below the crossover temperatures.  However,
guidance continues to hint at an MVFR deck developing just before
sunrise as low-level moisture transport commences ahead of a
disturbance passing to the northwest.  It appears the lowest
restrictions will likely be at KBWG where fuel-alternate or even
high-end IFR conditions may be possible, with KLEX and KSDF expected
to see high-end MVFR cigs/vsbys.  Admittedly, this is not a high
confidence scenario.

For tomorrow, the low cloud deck may once again hang on into the
late morning or early afternoon hours, which may once again limit
afternoon instability.  Therefore, will continue with VCSH wording
and not include any VCTS mention until trends in cloud cover and
resultant instability are better ascertained.  Winds will be out of
the SSW around 10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 282327
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
727 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Another complex overnight TAF period is in store as lingering
low-level moisture will combine with weak low-level moisture
transport to potentially cause flight restrictions.  All sites
should remain VFR and precipitation-free through at least 06Z
tonight.  After 06Z, light fog and/or low stratus will be possible.
There will be more of a gradient wind tonight (around 5 knots by
12Z) which should help limit any dense fog.  Also, the breaks in the
clouds this afternoon allowed all sites to mix dewpoints into the
mid 60s, which is below the crossover temperatures.  However,
guidance continues to hint at an MVFR deck developing just before
sunrise as low-level moisture transport commences ahead of a
disturbance passing to the northwest.  It appears the lowest
restrictions will likely be at KBWG where fuel-alternate or even
high-end IFR conditions may be possible, with KLEX and KSDF expected
to see high-end MVFR cigs/vsbys.  Admittedly, this is not a high
confidence scenario.

For tomorrow, the low cloud deck may once again hang on into the
late morning or early afternoon hours, which may once again limit
afternoon instability.  Therefore, will continue with VCSH wording
and not include any VCTS mention until trends in cloud cover and
resultant instability are better ascertained.  Winds will be out of
the SSW around 10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 282327
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
727 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Another complex overnight TAF period is in store as lingering
low-level moisture will combine with weak low-level moisture
transport to potentially cause flight restrictions.  All sites
should remain VFR and precipitation-free through at least 06Z
tonight.  After 06Z, light fog and/or low stratus will be possible.
There will be more of a gradient wind tonight (around 5 knots by
12Z) which should help limit any dense fog.  Also, the breaks in the
clouds this afternoon allowed all sites to mix dewpoints into the
mid 60s, which is below the crossover temperatures.  However,
guidance continues to hint at an MVFR deck developing just before
sunrise as low-level moisture transport commences ahead of a
disturbance passing to the northwest.  It appears the lowest
restrictions will likely be at KBWG where fuel-alternate or even
high-end IFR conditions may be possible, with KLEX and KSDF expected
to see high-end MVFR cigs/vsbys.  Admittedly, this is not a high
confidence scenario.

For tomorrow, the low cloud deck may once again hang on into the
late morning or early afternoon hours, which may once again limit
afternoon instability.  Therefore, will continue with VCSH wording
and not include any VCTS mention until trends in cloud cover and
resultant instability are better ascertained.  Winds will be out of
the SSW around 10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 282327
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
727 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Another complex overnight TAF period is in store as lingering
low-level moisture will combine with weak low-level moisture
transport to potentially cause flight restrictions.  All sites
should remain VFR and precipitation-free through at least 06Z
tonight.  After 06Z, light fog and/or low stratus will be possible.
There will be more of a gradient wind tonight (around 5 knots by
12Z) which should help limit any dense fog.  Also, the breaks in the
clouds this afternoon allowed all sites to mix dewpoints into the
mid 60s, which is below the crossover temperatures.  However,
guidance continues to hint at an MVFR deck developing just before
sunrise as low-level moisture transport commences ahead of a
disturbance passing to the northwest.  It appears the lowest
restrictions will likely be at KBWG where fuel-alternate or even
high-end IFR conditions may be possible, with KLEX and KSDF expected
to see high-end MVFR cigs/vsbys.  Admittedly, this is not a high
confidence scenario.

For tomorrow, the low cloud deck may once again hang on into the
late morning or early afternoon hours, which may once again limit
afternoon instability.  Therefore, will continue with VCSH wording
and not include any VCTS mention until trends in cloud cover and
resultant instability are better ascertained.  Winds will be out of
the SSW around 10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 282211
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 282211
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 282211
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281849
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
249 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281849
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
249 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281739
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
139 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 840 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Complicated forecast for today as multiple factors will affect if we
get storms. On radar now are some light rain showers over the Lake
Cumberland area extending south into TN. These are ahead of a
slow-moving shortwave over the TN Valley. In addition we have a weak
front located near the Ohio River, with a theta-e ridge axis ahead
of it. There are no showers associated with this feature, instead we
have low clouds. These clouds and some patches of fog should limit
destabilization. Thus have trimmed back pops for the morning hours
along the Ohio River , but kept values in the 30-40 range for south
central KY.

This afternoon`s development will depend on how quick the clouds
erode. Still think the best shot will be with the slow-moving
shortwave, so have continued the focus in the southern part of the
area. Though any clearing up north could lead to isolated storm
development. Storm motion should be fairly slow given forecast
soundings with little flow in the low levels. Not worried about any
kind of flood issues with the slow flow however as precipitable
waters are not too high. Also, we should not have any issues with
severe weather.

Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281739
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
139 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 840 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Complicated forecast for today as multiple factors will affect if we
get storms. On radar now are some light rain showers over the Lake
Cumberland area extending south into TN. These are ahead of a
slow-moving shortwave over the TN Valley. In addition we have a weak
front located near the Ohio River, with a theta-e ridge axis ahead
of it. There are no showers associated with this feature, instead we
have low clouds. These clouds and some patches of fog should limit
destabilization. Thus have trimmed back pops for the morning hours
along the Ohio River , but kept values in the 30-40 range for south
central KY.

This afternoon`s development will depend on how quick the clouds
erode. Still think the best shot will be with the slow-moving
shortwave, so have continued the focus in the southern part of the
area. Though any clearing up north could lead to isolated storm
development. Storm motion should be fairly slow given forecast
soundings with little flow in the low levels. Not worried about any
kind of flood issues with the slow flow however as precipitable
waters are not too high. Also, we should not have any issues with
severe weather.

Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281243
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
843 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 840 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Complicated forecast for today as multiple factors will affect if we
get storms. On radar now are some light rain showers over the Lake
Cumberland area extending south into TN. These are ahead of a
slow-moving shortwave over the TN Valley. In addition we have a weak
front located near the Ohio River, with a theta-e ridge axis ahead
of it. There are no showers associated with this feature, instead we
have low clouds. These clouds and some patches of fog should limit
destabilization. Thus have trimmed back pops for the morning hours
along the Ohio River , but kept values in the 30-40 range for south
central KY.

This afternoon`s development will depend on how quick the clouds
erode. Still think the best shot will be with the slow-moving
shortwave, so have continued the focus in the southern part of the
area. Though any clearing up north could lead to isolated storm
development. Storm motion should be fairly slow given forecast
soundings with little flow in the low levels. Not worried about any
kind of flood issues with the slow flow however as precipitable
waters are not too high. Also, we should not have any issues with
severe weather.

Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281243
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
843 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 840 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Complicated forecast for today as multiple factors will affect if we
get storms. On radar now are some light rain showers over the Lake
Cumberland area extending south into TN. These are ahead of a
slow-moving shortwave over the TN Valley. In addition we have a weak
front located near the Ohio River, with a theta-e ridge axis ahead
of it. There are no showers associated with this feature, instead we
have low clouds. These clouds and some patches of fog should limit
destabilization. Thus have trimmed back pops for the morning hours
along the Ohio River , but kept values in the 30-40 range for south
central KY.

This afternoon`s development will depend on how quick the clouds
erode. Still think the best shot will be with the slow-moving
shortwave, so have continued the focus in the southern part of the
area. Though any clearing up north could lead to isolated storm
development. Storm motion should be fairly slow given forecast
soundings with little flow in the low levels. Not worried about any
kind of flood issues with the slow flow however as precipitable
waters are not too high. Also, we should not have any issues with
severe weather.

Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281243
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
843 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 840 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Complicated forecast for today as multiple factors will affect if we
get storms. On radar now are some light rain showers over the Lake
Cumberland area extending south into TN. These are ahead of a
slow-moving shortwave over the TN Valley. In addition we have a weak
front located near the Ohio River, with a theta-e ridge axis ahead
of it. There are no showers associated with this feature, instead we
have low clouds. These clouds and some patches of fog should limit
destabilization. Thus have trimmed back pops for the morning hours
along the Ohio River , but kept values in the 30-40 range for south
central KY.

This afternoon`s development will depend on how quick the clouds
erode. Still think the best shot will be with the slow-moving
shortwave, so have continued the focus in the southern part of the
area. Though any clearing up north could lead to isolated storm
development. Storm motion should be fairly slow given forecast
soundings with little flow in the low levels. Not worried about any
kind of flood issues with the slow flow however as precipitable
waters are not too high. Also, we should not have any issues with
severe weather.

Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281243
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
843 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 840 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Complicated forecast for today as multiple factors will affect if we
get storms. On radar now are some light rain showers over the Lake
Cumberland area extending south into TN. These are ahead of a
slow-moving shortwave over the TN Valley. In addition we have a weak
front located near the Ohio River, with a theta-e ridge axis ahead
of it. There are no showers associated with this feature, instead we
have low clouds. These clouds and some patches of fog should limit
destabilization. Thus have trimmed back pops for the morning hours
along the Ohio River , but kept values in the 30-40 range for south
central KY.

This afternoon`s development will depend on how quick the clouds
erode. Still think the best shot will be with the slow-moving
shortwave, so have continued the focus in the southern part of the
area. Though any clearing up north could lead to isolated storm
development. Storm motion should be fairly slow given forecast
soundings with little flow in the low levels. Not worried about any
kind of flood issues with the slow flow however as precipitable
waters are not too high. Also, we should not have any issues with
severe weather.

Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281057
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281057
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281057
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280516
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
116 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z model runs are in reasonable agreement with overall
synoptic weather pattern in extended forecast, indicating a
generally unsettled period with off and on showers and
thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing over the central Plains
on Friday is forecast to evolve into a slow-moving cutoff low over
the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late this weekend and through
the early-to-mid parts of next week. Ahead of this feature will be a
persistent feed of low-level moist southerly flow over much of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including central Kentucky and south-
central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley over the weekend and early next
week. Scattered showers Friday night will become more numerous
Saturday through Sunday, with a diurnal maximum and a relative
nocturnal minimum (but still scattered) in convective activity
expected in general. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest coverage
of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and just north of
the front at night, and along and south of the front during the day
within greater low-level instability.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but some strong pulse storms are possible from time to time
especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level southerly inflow
suggest periods of heavy rainfall over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280516
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
116 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z model runs are in reasonable agreement with overall
synoptic weather pattern in extended forecast, indicating a
generally unsettled period with off and on showers and
thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing over the central Plains
on Friday is forecast to evolve into a slow-moving cutoff low over
the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late this weekend and through
the early-to-mid parts of next week. Ahead of this feature will be a
persistent feed of low-level moist southerly flow over much of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including central Kentucky and south-
central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley over the weekend and early next
week. Scattered showers Friday night will become more numerous
Saturday through Sunday, with a diurnal maximum and a relative
nocturnal minimum (but still scattered) in convective activity
expected in general. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest coverage
of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and just north of
the front at night, and along and south of the front during the day
within greater low-level instability.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but some strong pulse storms are possible from time to time
especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level southerly inflow
suggest periods of heavy rainfall over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280516
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
116 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z model runs are in reasonable agreement with overall
synoptic weather pattern in extended forecast, indicating a
generally unsettled period with off and on showers and
thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing over the central Plains
on Friday is forecast to evolve into a slow-moving cutoff low over
the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late this weekend and through
the early-to-mid parts of next week. Ahead of this feature will be a
persistent feed of low-level moist southerly flow over much of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including central Kentucky and south-
central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley over the weekend and early next
week. Scattered showers Friday night will become more numerous
Saturday through Sunday, with a diurnal maximum and a relative
nocturnal minimum (but still scattered) in convective activity
expected in general. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest coverage
of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and just north of
the front at night, and along and south of the front during the day
within greater low-level instability.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but some strong pulse storms are possible from time to time
especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level southerly inflow
suggest periods of heavy rainfall over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280516
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
116 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z model runs are in reasonable agreement with overall
synoptic weather pattern in extended forecast, indicating a
generally unsettled period with off and on showers and
thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing over the central Plains
on Friday is forecast to evolve into a slow-moving cutoff low over
the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late this weekend and through
the early-to-mid parts of next week. Ahead of this feature will be a
persistent feed of low-level moist southerly flow over much of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including central Kentucky and south-
central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley over the weekend and early next
week. Scattered showers Friday night will become more numerous
Saturday through Sunday, with a diurnal maximum and a relative
nocturnal minimum (but still scattered) in convective activity
expected in general. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest coverage
of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and just north of
the front at night, and along and south of the front during the day
within greater low-level instability.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but some strong pulse storms are possible from time to time
especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level southerly inflow
suggest periods of heavy rainfall over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
851 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 735 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms just pulling out of LEX at the moment, leaving
behind mid-level and cirrus debris. Expect a VFR evening with light
south winds, but the main concern overnight will be fog potential.
In this pattern we`ve had a hard time getting the winds to
completely decouple at night, but with the proximity of the front
there is a better chance tonight. Add in wet ground from the rain
this afternoon, as well as the already tight T/Td spreads, and we
have multiple factors coming together for restricted visibility.
Some discrepancy in model guidance with the GFS MOS suggesting dense
fog while the usually pessimistic NAM MOS shows stratus. For now
will go with MVFR visibilities developing after midnight, and TEMPO
groups for a brief IFR restriction around daybreak. High confidence
that LEX will go IFR at least briefly, but moderate at best for SDF
and BWG.

Once we start to mix out late Thursday morning, VFR conditions will
return with sct-bkn diurnal cu and light southerly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
851 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 735 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms just pulling out of LEX at the moment, leaving
behind mid-level and cirrus debris. Expect a VFR evening with light
south winds, but the main concern overnight will be fog potential.
In this pattern we`ve had a hard time getting the winds to
completely decouple at night, but with the proximity of the front
there is a better chance tonight. Add in wet ground from the rain
this afternoon, as well as the already tight T/Td spreads, and we
have multiple factors coming together for restricted visibility.
Some discrepancy in model guidance with the GFS MOS suggesting dense
fog while the usually pessimistic NAM MOS shows stratus. For now
will go with MVFR visibilities developing after midnight, and TEMPO
groups for a brief IFR restriction around daybreak. High confidence
that LEX will go IFR at least briefly, but moderate at best for SDF
and BWG.

Once we start to mix out late Thursday morning, VFR conditions will
return with sct-bkn diurnal cu and light southerly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
851 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 735 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms just pulling out of LEX at the moment, leaving
behind mid-level and cirrus debris. Expect a VFR evening with light
south winds, but the main concern overnight will be fog potential.
In this pattern we`ve had a hard time getting the winds to
completely decouple at night, but with the proximity of the front
there is a better chance tonight. Add in wet ground from the rain
this afternoon, as well as the already tight T/Td spreads, and we
have multiple factors coming together for restricted visibility.
Some discrepancy in model guidance with the GFS MOS suggesting dense
fog while the usually pessimistic NAM MOS shows stratus. For now
will go with MVFR visibilities developing after midnight, and TEMPO
groups for a brief IFR restriction around daybreak. High confidence
that LEX will go IFR at least briefly, but moderate at best for SDF
and BWG.

Once we start to mix out late Thursday morning, VFR conditions will
return with sct-bkn diurnal cu and light southerly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
851 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 735 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms just pulling out of LEX at the moment, leaving
behind mid-level and cirrus debris. Expect a VFR evening with light
south winds, but the main concern overnight will be fog potential.
In this pattern we`ve had a hard time getting the winds to
completely decouple at night, but with the proximity of the front
there is a better chance tonight. Add in wet ground from the rain
this afternoon, as well as the already tight T/Td spreads, and we
have multiple factors coming together for restricted visibility.
Some discrepancy in model guidance with the GFS MOS suggesting dense
fog while the usually pessimistic NAM MOS shows stratus. For now
will go with MVFR visibilities developing after midnight, and TEMPO
groups for a brief IFR restriction around daybreak. High confidence
that LEX will go IFR at least briefly, but moderate at best for SDF
and BWG.

Once we start to mix out late Thursday morning, VFR conditions will
return with sct-bkn diurnal cu and light southerly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 272344
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
744 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 735 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms just pulling out of LEX at the moment, leaving
behind mid-level and cirrus debris. Expect a VFR evening with light
south winds, but the main concern overnight will be fog potential.
In this pattern we`ve had a hard time getting the winds to
completely decouple at night, but with the proximity of the front
there is a better chance tonight. Add in wet ground from the rain
this afternoon, as well as the already tight T/Td spreads, and we
have multiple factors coming together for restricted visibility.
Some discrepancy in model guidance with the GFS MOS suggesting dense
fog while the usually pessimistic NAM MOS shows stratus. For now
will go with MVFR visibilities developing after midnight, and TEMPO
groups for a brief IFR restriction around daybreak. High confidence
that LEX will go IFR at least briefly, but moderate at best for SDF
and BWG.

Once we start to mix out late Thursday morning, VFR conditions will
return with sct-bkn diurnal cu and light southerly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 272344
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
744 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 735 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms just pulling out of LEX at the moment, leaving
behind mid-level and cirrus debris. Expect a VFR evening with light
south winds, but the main concern overnight will be fog potential.
In this pattern we`ve had a hard time getting the winds to
completely decouple at night, but with the proximity of the front
there is a better chance tonight. Add in wet ground from the rain
this afternoon, as well as the already tight T/Td spreads, and we
have multiple factors coming together for restricted visibility.
Some discrepancy in model guidance with the GFS MOS suggesting dense
fog while the usually pessimistic NAM MOS shows stratus. For now
will go with MVFR visibilities developing after midnight, and TEMPO
groups for a brief IFR restriction around daybreak. High confidence
that LEX will go IFR at least briefly, but moderate at best for SDF
and BWG.

Once we start to mix out late Thursday morning, VFR conditions will
return with sct-bkn diurnal cu and light southerly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272228
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
628 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have a line of storms approaching SDF and later LEX, then obs
upstream are clear. Have tried to have a window in the forecast with
no VCTS before they return later this afternoon. BWG a little more
unstable with various rounds of storms possible next several hours.
Should the second set of storms hit the terminals around sunset, fog
likely will develop overnight, given expected lighter winds and that
influx of moisture. Thus may have to go more pessimistic with later
forecasts for daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271855
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
255 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have a line of storms approaching SDF and later LEX, then obs
upstream are clear. Have tried to have a window in the forecast with
no VCTS before they return later this afternoon. BWG a little more
unstable with various rounds of storms possible next several hours.
Should the second set of storms hit the terminals around sunset, fog
likely will develop overnight, given expected lighter winds and that
influx of moisture. Thus may have to go more pessimistic with later
forecasts for daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271855
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
255 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have a line of storms approaching SDF and later LEX, then obs
upstream are clear. Have tried to have a window in the forecast with
no VCTS before they return later this afternoon. BWG a little more
unstable with various rounds of storms possible next several hours.
Should the second set of storms hit the terminals around sunset, fog
likely will develop overnight, given expected lighter winds and that
influx of moisture. Thus may have to go more pessimistic with later
forecasts for daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271732
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
132 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1205 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Well-defined line of storms, forming along an outflow boundary from
previous storms over Missouri, is forming new cells that are about
to move into our forecast area. Have changed pops to account for
this line surviving into our area and then a brief lull/lower chance
period before scattered pops return again later this afternoon. The
latter period think the best chance would be along/north of the I-64
corridor. Had a nickel-sized hail report with a cell in PAH`s area,
and still think quarters are possible with the stronger cells as the
afternoon rolls on. DCAPE`s are up as well, so gusty winds will be a
factor also.

Updated 945 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Storm complex to our west is fluctuating. At times it looks like it
is declining then new cells are forming along the line. A few of the
mesoscale models had this activity, but most did not. Following
those models that did have the activity, some weaken it and some
maintain it movinng northeast. Given the clear airmass ahead of the
activity, will lean the direction of maintaining it and possibly
allowing new storms to form along the gust front later this
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis has forecast CAPES to around 2000 this
afternoon, and this is somewhat in line with GFS/NAM/RUC soundings.
The main threats still look to be damaging winds and quarter-sized
hail.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have a line of storms approaching SDF and later LEX, then obs
upstream are clear. Have tried to have a window in the forecast with
no VCTS before they return later this afternoon. BWG a little more
unstable with various rounds of storms possible next several hours.
Should the second set of storms hit the terminals around sunset, fog
likely will develop overnight, given expected lighter winds and that
influx of moisture. Thus may have to go more pessimistic with later
forecasts for daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271732
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
132 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1205 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Well-defined line of storms, forming along an outflow boundary from
previous storms over Missouri, is forming new cells that are about
to move into our forecast area. Have changed pops to account for
this line surviving into our area and then a brief lull/lower chance
period before scattered pops return again later this afternoon. The
latter period think the best chance would be along/north of the I-64
corridor. Had a nickel-sized hail report with a cell in PAH`s area,
and still think quarters are possible with the stronger cells as the
afternoon rolls on. DCAPE`s are up as well, so gusty winds will be a
factor also.

Updated 945 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Storm complex to our west is fluctuating. At times it looks like it
is declining then new cells are forming along the line. A few of the
mesoscale models had this activity, but most did not. Following
those models that did have the activity, some weaken it and some
maintain it movinng northeast. Given the clear airmass ahead of the
activity, will lean the direction of maintaining it and possibly
allowing new storms to form along the gust front later this
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis has forecast CAPES to around 2000 this
afternoon, and this is somewhat in line with GFS/NAM/RUC soundings.
The main threats still look to be damaging winds and quarter-sized
hail.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have a line of storms approaching SDF and later LEX, then obs
upstream are clear. Have tried to have a window in the forecast with
no VCTS before they return later this afternoon. BWG a little more
unstable with various rounds of storms possible next several hours.
Should the second set of storms hit the terminals around sunset, fog
likely will develop overnight, given expected lighter winds and that
influx of moisture. Thus may have to go more pessimistic with later
forecasts for daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271606
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1206 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1205 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Well-defined line of storms, forming along an outflow boundary from
previous storms over Missouri, is forming new cells that are about
to move into our forecast area. Have changed pops to account for
this line surviving into our area and then a brief lull/lower chance
period before scattered pops return again later this afternoon. The
latter period think the best chance would be along/north of the I-64
corridor. Had a nickel-sized hail report with a cell in PAH`s area,
and still think quarters are possible with the stronger cells as the
afternoon rolls on. DCAPE`s are up as well, so gusty winds will be a
factor also.

Updated 945 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Storm complex to our west is fluctuating. At times it looks like it
is declining then new cells are forming along the line. A few of the
mesoscale models had this activity, but most did not. Following
those models that did have the activity, some weaken it and some
maintain it movinng northeast. Given the clear airmass ahead of the
activity, will lean the direction of maintaining it and possibly
allowing new storms to form along the gust front later this
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis has forecast CAPES to around 2000 this
afternoon, and this is somewhat in line with GFS/NAM/RUC soundings.
The main threats still look to be damaging winds and quarter-sized
hail.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Low clouds and light br may affect LEX/BWG for a few more hours this
morning before conditions return to VFR.

Another upper level disturbance will bring showers/storms this
afternoon/evening.  MVFR/IFR flight restrictions will be possible in
any storm that hits a TAF site.  Did not include in the TAF attm
since t-storm coverage is expected to be scattered this
afternoon/evening.  Will continue VCTS in the TAFs and better time
convection out with a coming TAF issuance.

Winds will be light SSW early this morning and more SW for the
daylight hours today.  Winds may gust up to around 15-18 kts today.
Higher gusts will be possible in convection.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Low/Medium
Visibility: Low/Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271606
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1206 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1205 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Well-defined line of storms, forming along an outflow boundary from
previous storms over Missouri, is forming new cells that are about
to move into our forecast area. Have changed pops to account for
this line surviving into our area and then a brief lull/lower chance
period before scattered pops return again later this afternoon. The
latter period think the best chance would be along/north of the I-64
corridor. Had a nickel-sized hail report with a cell in PAH`s area,
and still think quarters are possible with the stronger cells as the
afternoon rolls on. DCAPE`s are up as well, so gusty winds will be a
factor also.

Updated 945 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Storm complex to our west is fluctuating. At times it looks like it
is declining then new cells are forming along the line. A few of the
mesoscale models had this activity, but most did not. Following
those models that did have the activity, some weaken it and some
maintain it movinng northeast. Given the clear airmass ahead of the
activity, will lean the direction of maintaining it and possibly
allowing new storms to form along the gust front later this
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis has forecast CAPES to around 2000 this
afternoon, and this is somewhat in line with GFS/NAM/RUC soundings.
The main threats still look to be damaging winds and quarter-sized
hail.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Low clouds and light br may affect LEX/BWG for a few more hours this
morning before conditions return to VFR.

Another upper level disturbance will bring showers/storms this
afternoon/evening.  MVFR/IFR flight restrictions will be possible in
any storm that hits a TAF site.  Did not include in the TAF attm
since t-storm coverage is expected to be scattered this
afternoon/evening.  Will continue VCTS in the TAFs and better time
convection out with a coming TAF issuance.

Winds will be light SSW early this morning and more SW for the
daylight hours today.  Winds may gust up to around 15-18 kts today.
Higher gusts will be possible in convection.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Low/Medium
Visibility: Low/Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271606
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1206 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1205 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Well-defined line of storms, forming along an outflow boundary from
previous storms over Missouri, is forming new cells that are about
to move into our forecast area. Have changed pops to account for
this line surviving into our area and then a brief lull/lower chance
period before scattered pops return again later this afternoon. The
latter period think the best chance would be along/north of the I-64
corridor. Had a nickel-sized hail report with a cell in PAH`s area,
and still think quarters are possible with the stronger cells as the
afternoon rolls on. DCAPE`s are up as well, so gusty winds will be a
factor also.

Updated 945 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Storm complex to our west is fluctuating. At times it looks like it
is declining then new cells are forming along the line. A few of the
mesoscale models had this activity, but most did not. Following
those models that did have the activity, some weaken it and some
maintain it movinng northeast. Given the clear airmass ahead of the
activity, will lean the direction of maintaining it and possibly
allowing new storms to form along the gust front later this
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis has forecast CAPES to around 2000 this
afternoon, and this is somewhat in line with GFS/NAM/RUC soundings.
The main threats still look to be damaging winds and quarter-sized
hail.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Low clouds and light br may affect LEX/BWG for a few more hours this
morning before conditions return to VFR.

Another upper level disturbance will bring showers/storms this
afternoon/evening.  MVFR/IFR flight restrictions will be possible in
any storm that hits a TAF site.  Did not include in the TAF attm
since t-storm coverage is expected to be scattered this
afternoon/evening.  Will continue VCTS in the TAFs and better time
convection out with a coming TAF issuance.

Winds will be light SSW early this morning and more SW for the
daylight hours today.  Winds may gust up to around 15-18 kts today.
Higher gusts will be possible in convection.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Low/Medium
Visibility: Low/Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271347
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
947 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 945 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Storm complex to our west is fluctuating. At times it looks like it
is declining then new cells are forming along the line. A few of the
mesoscale models had this activity, but most did not. Following
those models that did have the activity, some weaken it and some
maintain it movinng northeast. Given the clear airmass ahead of the
activity, will lean the direction of maintaining it and possibly
allowing new storms to form along the gust front later this
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis has forecast CAPES to around 2000 this
afternoon, and this is somewhat in line with GFS/NAM/RUC soundings.
The main threats still look to be damaging winds and quarter-sized
hail.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Low clouds and light br may affect LEX/BWG for a few more hours this
morning before conditions return to VFR.

Another upper level disturbance will bring showers/storms this
afternoon/evening.  MVFR/IFR flight restrictions will be possible in
any storm that hits a TAF site.  Did not include in the TAF attm
since t-storm coverage is expected to be scattered this
afternoon/evening.  Will continue VCTS in the TAFs and better time
convection out with a coming TAF issuance.

Winds will be light SSW early this morning and more SW for the
daylight hours today.  Winds may gust up to around 15-18 kts today.
Higher gusts will be possible in convection.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Low/Medium
Visibility: Low/Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271347
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
947 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 945 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Storm complex to our west is fluctuating. At times it looks like it
is declining then new cells are forming along the line. A few of the
mesoscale models had this activity, but most did not. Following
those models that did have the activity, some weaken it and some
maintain it movinng northeast. Given the clear airmass ahead of the
activity, will lean the direction of maintaining it and possibly
allowing new storms to form along the gust front later this
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis has forecast CAPES to around 2000 this
afternoon, and this is somewhat in line with GFS/NAM/RUC soundings.
The main threats still look to be damaging winds and quarter-sized
hail.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Low clouds and light br may affect LEX/BWG for a few more hours this
morning before conditions return to VFR.

Another upper level disturbance will bring showers/storms this
afternoon/evening.  MVFR/IFR flight restrictions will be possible in
any storm that hits a TAF site.  Did not include in the TAF attm
since t-storm coverage is expected to be scattered this
afternoon/evening.  Will continue VCTS in the TAFs and better time
convection out with a coming TAF issuance.

Winds will be light SSW early this morning and more SW for the
daylight hours today.  Winds may gust up to around 15-18 kts today.
Higher gusts will be possible in convection.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Low/Medium
Visibility: Low/Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Low clouds and light br may affect LEX/BWG for a few more hours this
morning before conditions return to VFR.

Another upper level disturbance will bring showers/storms this
afternoon/evening.  MVFR/IFR flight restrictions will be possible in
any storm that hits a TAF site.  Did not include in the TAF attm
since t-storm coverage is expected to be scattered this
afternoon/evening.  Will continue VCTS in the TAFs and better time
convection out with a coming TAF issuance.

Winds will be light SSW early this morning and more SW for the
daylight hours today.  Winds may gust up to around 15-18 kts today.
Higher gusts will be possible in convection.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Low/Medium
Visibility: Low/Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Low clouds and light br may affect LEX/BWG for a few more hours this
morning before conditions return to VFR.

Another upper level disturbance will bring showers/storms this
afternoon/evening.  MVFR/IFR flight restrictions will be possible in
any storm that hits a TAF site.  Did not include in the TAF attm
since t-storm coverage is expected to be scattered this
afternoon/evening.  Will continue VCTS in the TAFs and better time
convection out with a coming TAF issuance.

Winds will be light SSW early this morning and more SW for the
daylight hours today.  Winds may gust up to around 15-18 kts today.
Higher gusts will be possible in convection.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Low/Medium
Visibility: Low/Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Low clouds and light br may affect LEX/BWG for a few more hours this
morning before conditions return to VFR.

Another upper level disturbance will bring showers/storms this
afternoon/evening.  MVFR/IFR flight restrictions will be possible in
any storm that hits a TAF site.  Did not include in the TAF attm
since t-storm coverage is expected to be scattered this
afternoon/evening.  Will continue VCTS in the TAFs and better time
convection out with a coming TAF issuance.

Winds will be light SSW early this morning and more SW for the
daylight hours today.  Winds may gust up to around 15-18 kts today.
Higher gusts will be possible in convection.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Low/Medium
Visibility: Low/Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Low clouds and light br may affect LEX/BWG for a few more hours this
morning before conditions return to VFR.

Another upper level disturbance will bring showers/storms this
afternoon/evening.  MVFR/IFR flight restrictions will be possible in
any storm that hits a TAF site.  Did not include in the TAF attm
since t-storm coverage is expected to be scattered this
afternoon/evening.  Will continue VCTS in the TAFs and better time
convection out with a coming TAF issuance.

Winds will be light SSW early this morning and more SW for the
daylight hours today.  Winds may gust up to around 15-18 kts today.
Higher gusts will be possible in convection.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Low/Medium
Visibility: Low/Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270716
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 105 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Low clouds and light br may affect the TAF sites this morning in the
wake of showers/storms that moved through yesterday evening.
SDF/LEX are already showing hints at some low clouds developing.
Most of the model guidance keeps the thicker low clouds near LEX but
they can`t be ruled out at SDF either.  BWG may see more of a break
in cloud cover early this morning resulting in better chances at
some light br.  Overall think flight restrictions should stay in the
MVFR cat this morning, however, IFR can`t be ruled out.

Any restrictions should clear shortly after sunrise this morning
with another upper level disturbance bringing showers/storms this
afternoon.

Winds will be light SSW early this morning and more SW for the
daylight hours today.  Winds may gust up to around 15-18 kts today.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Low/Medium
Visibility: Low/Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270716
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 105 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Low clouds and light br may affect the TAF sites this morning in the
wake of showers/storms that moved through yesterday evening.
SDF/LEX are already showing hints at some low clouds developing.
Most of the model guidance keeps the thicker low clouds near LEX but
they can`t be ruled out at SDF either.  BWG may see more of a break
in cloud cover early this morning resulting in better chances at
some light br.  Overall think flight restrictions should stay in the
MVFR cat this morning, however, IFR can`t be ruled out.

Any restrictions should clear shortly after sunrise this morning
with another upper level disturbance bringing showers/storms this
afternoon.

Winds will be light SSW early this morning and more SW for the
daylight hours today.  Winds may gust up to around 15-18 kts today.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Low/Medium
Visibility: Low/Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270509
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 910 PM EDT Tue May 26 2015

Convection has left the CWA, with only some stratiform rain left in
the northern Bluegrass.  A few additional showers have recently
developed along the main wind shift across portions of southern IN.
Therefore, will leave in slight chance pops for the next few hours
to account for these.  Don`t expect them to grow much further given
the weak convergence along the wind shift,growing mid-level
subsidence in the wake of the departing wave, and the loss of solar
insolation.

Have decided to trend the forecast dry for the overnight period.
There does appear to be another PV anomaly approaching towards 12Z
Wednesday, but most of the hi-res guidance has trended drier with
this feature.  While we can`t completely rule out a shower/storm,
think coverage will be less than 20% so will go with a dry
forecast.  Given the clearing skies tonight, there could be some
patchy fog.  However, winds should stay up just enough to there
should be some clouds streaming through from time to time which
should help limit the density and coverage of any fog.

Updated 618 PM EDT Tue May 26 2015

Storms continue to blossom along a weak surface trough out ahead of
a compact shortwave now sliding into eastern IL and western
IN.  The highest concentration of storms will continue to be across
the Lake Cumberland region and the northern Bluegrass over the next
hour or so before all activity shifts east.  The very low DCAPE
values (<500 J/kg) have likely resulted in these storms struggling
to put down severe wind given a lack of dry air through the low/mid
levels.  However, still can`t rule out a stronger storm with winds
around 50mph over the next hour or so.

Otherwise, overnight will be mainly dry.  There continues to be a
signal in the guidance members that some additional shower/storm
activity could reinvigorate tonight as yet another wave slides
through.  Will revisit that potential in a later update this
evening, but will leave in 20-30% pops for now.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue May 26 2015

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave rotating up through
the mid Mississippi River Valley. Atmosphere is moderately unstable,
however mid level inversion evident on NAM soundings and verified by
AMDAR is limiting updrafts above 15-20 K feet. Mid level lapse rates
are expected to remain weak through the afternoon/evening.

Showers and storms will continue to lift NNE as the entire focus
shifts slowly east through the evening. Storms are already shutting
off from the west as a subtle front moves through the region and
subsidence behind the wave takes over. So, will hold onto
categorical pops east of I-65 through around sunset.

Expecting a pretty quiet overnight, although an isolated shower or
storm may scoot along and north of the I-64 corridor around and just
after Midnight. This would associated with another weaker PV anomaly
scooting through the flow. Expect lows in the mid and upper 60s as
SW winds stay up just a bit. There is some concern for fog potential
given the moist low level airmass and lighter winds. However,
stratocu deck has potential to develop which would be another
limitng factor. Overall, confidence is too low to include mention at
this time.

Wednesday morning should start out mostly dry with any isolated to
widely scattered showers (iso-storm) confinded to our far south and
east. Our NW half of the CWA should stay dry through the morning and
most of the afternoon, with partly cloudy skies and a steady SW
wind. With decent heating, expect temps to rise into the low and mid
80s.

By Wednesday afternoon, another disturbance passes through the SW
flow and should be able to initiate scattered to numerous storms
across our NW. Actually more impressed with isolated severe chances
across southern IN tomorrow afternoon as atmposphere should be more
unstable than today. Flow will still be weak, although just marginal
enough for perhaps some organization. This wouldn`t be a widespread
threat, but a few instances of gusty winds or hail seem possible.

Scattered showers and storms should hang around mainly across the
northern CWA through the Wednesday evening hours with lows in the
low and mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue May 26 2015

Wet. That`s all you need to know about the extended forecast. OK, if
not wet, then at least the chance of wet...for every 12-hour period
through day 7. I will concede that for Thursday night the precip
chances will only be down in the southeast part of our area (near
Lake Cumberland), but otherwise, the forecast is a broken record.

On the plus side, despite the persistent chance for rain, the chance
for excessive rain, and severe weather, for that matter, do not look
impressive.  The overall upper air pattern through the period keeps
an elongated positively tilted trof to our west, but close enough
for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to receive showers or low-end
thunderstorms as short waves ride through to the north.  There are
hints by the second half of the weekend into early next week of a
trof digging down into the southern Mississippi Valley. This could
give the area the best chance for significant convection, but this
far out, it is only worthy of mention.

Despite the persistent rain chances, the overall rainfall totals
expected for the entire week are only on the order of 1.5 to 2.5
inches, so no widespread river or flooding issues are anticipated.
Of course, the usual caveat of any individual storm being capable of
producing isolated heavy rains still applies.  Probability-wise,
chances are only in the 30-50% range...not because it won`t occur,
but because when it rains, coverage will be spotty.

As far as temperature go, highs will be in the 80s through Saturday,
then in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the remainder of the period.
Lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 105 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Low clouds and light br may affect the TAF sites this morning in the
wake of showers/storms that moved through yesterday evening.
SDF/LEX are already showing hints at some low clouds developing.
Most of the model guidance keeps the thicker low clouds near LEX but
they can`t be ruled out at SDF either.  BWG may see more of a break
in cloud cover early this morning resulting in better chances at
some light br.  Overall think flight restrictions should stay in the
MVFR cat this morning, however, IFR can`t be ruled out.

Any restrictions should clear shortly after sunrise this morning
with another upper level disturbance bringing showers/storms this
afternoon.

Winds will be light SSW early this morning and more SW for the
daylight hours today.  Winds may gust up to around 15-18 kts today.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Low/Medium
Visibility: Low/Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270509
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 910 PM EDT Tue May 26 2015

Convection has left the CWA, with only some stratiform rain left in
the northern Bluegrass.  A few additional showers have recently
developed along the main wind shift across portions of southern IN.
Therefore, will leave in slight chance pops for the next few hours
to account for these.  Don`t expect them to grow much further given
the weak convergence along the wind shift,growing mid-level
subsidence in the wake of the departing wave, and the loss of solar
insolation.

Have decided to trend the forecast dry for the overnight period.
There does appear to be another PV anomaly approaching towards 12Z
Wednesday, but most of the hi-res guidance has trended drier with
this feature.  While we can`t completely rule out a shower/storm,
think coverage will be less than 20% so will go with a dry
forecast.  Given the clearing skies tonight, there could be some
patchy fog.  However, winds should stay up just enough to there
should be some clouds streaming through from time to time which
should help limit the density and coverage of any fog.

Updated 618 PM EDT Tue May 26 2015

Storms continue to blossom along a weak surface trough out ahead of
a compact shortwave now sliding into eastern IL and western
IN.  The highest concentration of storms will continue to be across
the Lake Cumberland region and the northern Bluegrass over the next
hour or so before all activity shifts east.  The very low DCAPE
values (<500 J/kg) have likely resulted in these storms struggling
to put down severe wind given a lack of dry air through the low/mid
levels.  However, still can`t rule out a stronger storm with winds
around 50mph over the next hour or so.

Otherwise, overnight will be mainly dry.  There continues to be a
signal in the guidance members that some additional shower/storm
activity could reinvigorate tonight as yet another wave slides
through.  Will revisit that potential in a later update this
evening, but will leave in 20-30% pops for now.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue May 26 2015

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave rotating up through
the mid Mississippi River Valley. Atmosphere is moderately unstable,
however mid level inversion evident on NAM soundings and verified by
AMDAR is limiting updrafts above 15-20 K feet. Mid level lapse rates
are expected to remain weak through the afternoon/evening.

Showers and storms will continue to lift NNE as the entire focus
shifts slowly east through the evening. Storms are already shutting
off from the west as a subtle front moves through the region and
subsidence behind the wave takes over. So, will hold onto
categorical pops east of I-65 through around sunset.

Expecting a pretty quiet overnight, although an isolated shower or
storm may scoot along and north of the I-64 corridor around and just
after Midnight. This would associated with another weaker PV anomaly
scooting through the flow. Expect lows in the mid and upper 60s as
SW winds stay up just a bit. There is some concern for fog potential
given the moist low level airmass and lighter winds. However,
stratocu deck has potential to develop which would be another
limitng factor. Overall, confidence is too low to include mention at
this time.

Wednesday morning should start out mostly dry with any isolated to
widely scattered showers (iso-storm) confinded to our far south and
east. Our NW half of the CWA should stay dry through the morning and
most of the afternoon, with partly cloudy skies and a steady SW
wind. With decent heating, expect temps to rise into the low and mid
80s.

By Wednesday afternoon, another disturbance passes through the SW
flow and should be able to initiate scattered to numerous storms
across our NW. Actually more impressed with isolated severe chances
across southern IN tomorrow afternoon as atmposphere should be more
unstable than today. Flow will still be weak, although just marginal
enough for perhaps some organization. This wouldn`t be a widespread
threat, but a few instances of gusty winds or hail seem possible.

Scattered showers and storms should hang around mainly across the
northern CWA through the Wednesday evening hours with lows in the
low and mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue May 26 2015

Wet. That`s all you need to know about the extended forecast. OK, if
not wet, then at least the chance of wet...for every 12-hour period
through day 7. I will concede that for Thursday night the precip
chances will only be down in the southeast part of our area (near
Lake Cumberland), but otherwise, the forecast is a broken record.

On the plus side, despite the persistent chance for rain, the chance
for excessive rain, and severe weather, for that matter, do not look
impressive.  The overall upper air pattern through the period keeps
an elongated positively tilted trof to our west, but close enough
for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to receive showers or low-end
thunderstorms as short waves ride through to the north.  There are
hints by the second half of the weekend into early next week of a
trof digging down into the southern Mississippi Valley. This could
give the area the best chance for significant convection, but this
far out, it is only worthy of mention.

Despite the persistent rain chances, the overall rainfall totals
expected for the entire week are only on the order of 1.5 to 2.5
inches, so no widespread river or flooding issues are anticipated.
Of course, the usual caveat of any individual storm being capable of
producing isolated heavy rains still applies.  Probability-wise,
chances are only in the 30-50% range...not because it won`t occur,
but because when it rains, coverage will be spotty.

As far as temperature go, highs will be in the 80s through Saturday,
then in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the remainder of the period.
Lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 105 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Low clouds and light br may affect the TAF sites this morning in the
wake of showers/storms that moved through yesterday evening.
SDF/LEX are already showing hints at some low clouds developing.
Most of the model guidance keeps the thicker low clouds near LEX but
they can`t be ruled out at SDF either.  BWG may see more of a break
in cloud cover early this morning resulting in better chances at
some light br.  Overall think flight restrictions should stay in the
MVFR cat this morning, however, IFR can`t be ruled out.

Any restrictions should clear shortly after sunrise this morning
with another upper level disturbance bringing showers/storms this
afternoon.

Winds will be light SSW early this morning and more SW for the
daylight hours today.  Winds may gust up to around 15-18 kts today.

Forecast Confidence
======================
Ceilings:   Low/Medium
Visibility: Low/Medium
Winds:      High
T-storm:    High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......AMS







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