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000
FXUS63 KLMK 271726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1226 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep NW flow has developed behind exiting Clipper system, leaving us
with a cloudy and somewhat raw day. Near-term guidance suggests
temps won`t rise much, but given upstream breaks in the stratus we
could rise a few degrees if there is well-timed sunshine. Max temps
should lean lower than guidance but only slightly...as mid/upper 30s
look to be on the generous side but still attainable. Updates on the
way to clean up morning snow mentions, as the rest of the day will
be precip-free.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has developed over the Ohio
Valley in the wake of the overnight Clipper. Low cloud deck has hung
in all morning, with persistent MVFR ceilings that have just barely
managed to lift above fuel-alternate thresholds. Expect status quo
through most of the afternoon with high-end MVFR and NW winds around
10 kt.

After sunset look for winds to diminish and ceilings to scatter out.
Another impulse will swing through overnight, but impact will be
minimal as it will only bring in a mid-level ceiling. Light south
winds and VFR conditions expected on Fri.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1226 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep NW flow has developed behind exiting Clipper system, leaving us
with a cloudy and somewhat raw day. Near-term guidance suggests
temps won`t rise much, but given upstream breaks in the stratus we
could rise a few degrees if there is well-timed sunshine. Max temps
should lean lower than guidance but only slightly...as mid/upper 30s
look to be on the generous side but still attainable. Updates on the
way to clean up morning snow mentions, as the rest of the day will
be precip-free.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has developed over the Ohio
Valley in the wake of the overnight Clipper. Low cloud deck has hung
in all morning, with persistent MVFR ceilings that have just barely
managed to lift above fuel-alternate thresholds. Expect status quo
through most of the afternoon with high-end MVFR and NW winds around
10 kt.

After sunset look for winds to diminish and ceilings to scatter out.
Another impulse will swing through overnight, but impact will be
minimal as it will only bring in a mid-level ceiling. Light south
winds and VFR conditions expected on Fri.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271441
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
941 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep NW flow has developed behind exiting Clipper system, leaving us
with a cloudy and somewhat raw day. Near-term guidance suggests
temps won`t rise much, but given upstream breaks in the stratus we
could rise a few degrees if there is well-timed sunshine. Max temps
should lean lower than guidance but only slightly...as mid/upper 30s
look to be on the generous side but still attainable. Updates on the
way to clean up morning snow mentions, as the rest of the day will
be precip-free.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 604 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to head eastward into southeastern KY this
morning.  One last, fast moving band up near the Ohio River will
drop southeastward and through the Bluegrass region in the next
hour...affecting the KLEX terminal.  IFR ceilings will be seen at
KBWG and KLEX for the first few hours of the upcoming TAF period.
However, conditions should improve by 27/14Z.  VFR conditions are
expected at KSDF.  Surface winds this morning will be mainly out of
the northwest at 8-10kts.

Cloudy conditions are expected to continue throughout the day with
ceilings slowly rising from around 035 to around 050 AGL by this
afternoon.  Partial clearing is expected to develop at the terminals
this evening with light northwesterly winds continuing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271441
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
941 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep NW flow has developed behind exiting Clipper system, leaving us
with a cloudy and somewhat raw day. Near-term guidance suggests
temps won`t rise much, but given upstream breaks in the stratus we
could rise a few degrees if there is well-timed sunshine. Max temps
should lean lower than guidance but only slightly...as mid/upper 30s
look to be on the generous side but still attainable. Updates on the
way to clean up morning snow mentions, as the rest of the day will
be precip-free.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 604 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to head eastward into southeastern KY this
morning.  One last, fast moving band up near the Ohio River will
drop southeastward and through the Bluegrass region in the next
hour...affecting the KLEX terminal.  IFR ceilings will be seen at
KBWG and KLEX for the first few hours of the upcoming TAF period.
However, conditions should improve by 27/14Z.  VFR conditions are
expected at KSDF.  Surface winds this morning will be mainly out of
the northwest at 8-10kts.

Cloudy conditions are expected to continue throughout the day with
ceilings slowly rising from around 035 to around 050 AGL by this
afternoon.  Partial clearing is expected to develop at the terminals
this evening with light northwesterly winds continuing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271108
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
608 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 608 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to pull on off the southeast this morning.
Light snow has diminished markedly over central KY in the last
hour.  Only one last band of snow just south of the Ohio River is
left and it will move southeastward through the Bluegrass region
over the next hour.  This band may drop an additional dusting to a
few tenths of an inch of snow as it passes through.  Surface
observations show temperatures at or just below freezing.  This has
kept accumulations limited to grassy and elevated surfaces.  With
temperatures falling below freezing, some isolated slick spots may
still develop on area roadways...especially elevated areas such as
bridges and overpasses.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 604 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to head eastward into southeastern KY this
morning.  One last, fast moving band up near the Ohio River will
drop southeastward and through the Bluegrass region in the next
hour...affecting the KLEX terminal.  IFR ceilings will be seen at
KBWG and KLEX for the first few hours of the upcoming TAF period.
However, conditions should improve by 27/14Z.  VFR conditions are
expected at KSDF.  Surface winds this morning will be mainly out of
the northwest at 8-10kts.

Cloudy conditions are expected to continue throughout the day with
ceilings slowly rising from around 035 to around 050 AGL by this
afternoon.  Partial clearing is expected to develop at the terminals
this evening with light northwesterly winds continuing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271108
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
608 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 608 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to pull on off the southeast this morning.
Light snow has diminished markedly over central KY in the last
hour.  Only one last band of snow just south of the Ohio River is
left and it will move southeastward through the Bluegrass region
over the next hour.  This band may drop an additional dusting to a
few tenths of an inch of snow as it passes through.  Surface
observations show temperatures at or just below freezing.  This has
kept accumulations limited to grassy and elevated surfaces.  With
temperatures falling below freezing, some isolated slick spots may
still develop on area roadways...especially elevated areas such as
bridges and overpasses.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 604 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to head eastward into southeastern KY this
morning.  One last, fast moving band up near the Ohio River will
drop southeastward and through the Bluegrass region in the next
hour...affecting the KLEX terminal.  IFR ceilings will be seen at
KBWG and KLEX for the first few hours of the upcoming TAF period.
However, conditions should improve by 27/14Z.  VFR conditions are
expected at KSDF.  Surface winds this morning will be mainly out of
the northwest at 8-10kts.

Cloudy conditions are expected to continue throughout the day with
ceilings slowly rising from around 035 to around 050 AGL by this
afternoon.  Partial clearing is expected to develop at the terminals
this evening with light northwesterly winds continuing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270807
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

A clipper system will continue to slide across southern Kentucky
tonight bringing precipitation and low ceilings to mainly the KBWG
terminal overnight.  Some light rain/snow may impact the KSDF
terminal later this morning...between 27/05-11Z...while KLEX looks
to remain pretty much dry.  Northeasterly surface winds will
continue at KSDF and KLEX in the near term and then shift to the
northwest/west as the clipper moves on off to the east.

Main aviation impacts will be further south at KBWG where ceilings
will likely oscillate between MVFR and IFR throughout the night
while visibilities generally remain MVFR due to light rain and
snow.  The precipitation looks to remain a mix in the near term but
will become all snow after 27/07Z.  Low ceilings are likely to
continue at KBWG through sunrise.

It appears that quite a bit of cloudiness will linger during the
daytime hours in the wake of the passing clipper system. KBWG should
see a return to VFR conditions after 27/14Z with continued improving
conditions at KSDF/KLEX throughout the day.  Surface winds will
remain out of the NW at 8-10kts and then start to slacken by evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270807
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

A clipper system will continue to slide across southern Kentucky
tonight bringing precipitation and low ceilings to mainly the KBWG
terminal overnight.  Some light rain/snow may impact the KSDF
terminal later this morning...between 27/05-11Z...while KLEX looks
to remain pretty much dry.  Northeasterly surface winds will
continue at KSDF and KLEX in the near term and then shift to the
northwest/west as the clipper moves on off to the east.

Main aviation impacts will be further south at KBWG where ceilings
will likely oscillate between MVFR and IFR throughout the night
while visibilities generally remain MVFR due to light rain and
snow.  The precipitation looks to remain a mix in the near term but
will become all snow after 27/07Z.  Low ceilings are likely to
continue at KBWG through sunrise.

It appears that quite a bit of cloudiness will linger during the
daytime hours in the wake of the passing clipper system. KBWG should
see a return to VFR conditions after 27/14Z with continued improving
conditions at KSDF/KLEX throughout the day.  Surface winds will
remain out of the NW at 8-10kts and then start to slacken by evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270501
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1201 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Overall the forecast is in good shape.  Only significant change
made at this time is to ramp PoPs up to 100% where precipitation is
currently falling or is imminent.  Did increase PoPs just a bit
along the northern edge of the band as well. PoP changes were based
off of mesoscale model data and current radar information.

Clipper low at 01Z was centered between Paducah and Evansville, with
a surface trof reaching northwestward into Illinois.  This system
will move quickly eastward across the region tonight.  Light rain
has been falling ahead of the clipper, with light snow behind it in
the colder air.

The rain/snow line has been creeping slowly but steadily
southeastward, and the freezing level aloft has been lowering very
slowly over the past few hours as indicated by radar.  So, some
light snow is still expected after midnight across portions of
central and south central Kentucky.  There still appears to be only
minor impact, though, with warm surface temperatures, warm boundary
layer temperatures, and the fact that the snow will be falling
during the late night/pre-dawn hours.  Nevertheless, something to
keep an eye on for anyone out traveling overnight in central
Kentucky.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

A clipper system will continue to slide across southern Kentucky
tonight bringing precipitation and low ceilings to mainly the KBWG
terminal overnight.  Some light rain/snow may impact the KSDF
terminal later this morning...between 27/05-11Z...while KLEX looks
to remain pretty much dry.  Northeasterly surface winds will
continue at KSDF and KLEX in the near term and then shift to the
northwest/west as the clipper moves on off to the east.

Main aviation impacts will be further south at KBWG where ceilings
will likely oscillate between MVFR and IFR throughout the night
while visibilities generally remain MVFR due to light rain and
snow.  The precipitation looks to remain a mix in the near term but
will become all snow after 27/07Z.  Low ceilings are likely to
continue at KBWG through sunrise.

It appears that quite a bit of cloudiness will linger during the
daytime hours in the wake of the passing clipper system. KBWG should
see a return to VFR conditions after 27/14Z with continued improving
conditions at KSDF/KLEX throughout the day.  Surface winds will
remain out of the NW at 8-10kts and then start to slacken by evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270501
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1201 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Overall the forecast is in good shape.  Only significant change
made at this time is to ramp PoPs up to 100% where precipitation is
currently falling or is imminent.  Did increase PoPs just a bit
along the northern edge of the band as well. PoP changes were based
off of mesoscale model data and current radar information.

Clipper low at 01Z was centered between Paducah and Evansville, with
a surface trof reaching northwestward into Illinois.  This system
will move quickly eastward across the region tonight.  Light rain
has been falling ahead of the clipper, with light snow behind it in
the colder air.

The rain/snow line has been creeping slowly but steadily
southeastward, and the freezing level aloft has been lowering very
slowly over the past few hours as indicated by radar.  So, some
light snow is still expected after midnight across portions of
central and south central Kentucky.  There still appears to be only
minor impact, though, with warm surface temperatures, warm boundary
layer temperatures, and the fact that the snow will be falling
during the late night/pre-dawn hours.  Nevertheless, something to
keep an eye on for anyone out traveling overnight in central
Kentucky.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

A clipper system will continue to slide across southern Kentucky
tonight bringing precipitation and low ceilings to mainly the KBWG
terminal overnight.  Some light rain/snow may impact the KSDF
terminal later this morning...between 27/05-11Z...while KLEX looks
to remain pretty much dry.  Northeasterly surface winds will
continue at KSDF and KLEX in the near term and then shift to the
northwest/west as the clipper moves on off to the east.

Main aviation impacts will be further south at KBWG where ceilings
will likely oscillate between MVFR and IFR throughout the night
while visibilities generally remain MVFR due to light rain and
snow.  The precipitation looks to remain a mix in the near term but
will become all snow after 27/07Z.  Low ceilings are likely to
continue at KBWG through sunrise.

It appears that quite a bit of cloudiness will linger during the
daytime hours in the wake of the passing clipper system. KBWG should
see a return to VFR conditions after 27/14Z with continued improving
conditions at KSDF/KLEX throughout the day.  Surface winds will
remain out of the NW at 8-10kts and then start to slacken by evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270145
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Overall the forecast is in good shape.  Only significant change
made at this time is to ramp PoPs up to 100% where precipitation is
currently falling or is imminent.  Did increase PoPs just a bit
along the northern edge of the band as well. PoP changes were based
off of mesoscale model data and current radar information.

Clipper low at 01Z was centered between Paducah and Evansville, with
a surface trof reaching northwestward into Illinois.  This system
will move quickly eastward across the region tonight.  Light rain
has been falling ahead of the clipper, with light snow behind it in
the colder air.

The rain/snow line has been creeping slowly but steadily
southeastward, and the freezing level aloft has been lowering very
slowly over the past few hours as indicated by radar.  So, some
light snow is still expected after midnight across portions of
central and south central Kentucky.  There still appears to be only
minor impact, though, with warm surface temperatures, warm boundary
layer temperatures, and the fact that the snow will be falling
during the late night/pre-dawn hours.  Nevertheless, something to
keep an eye on for anyone out traveling overnight in central
Kentucky.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

A weakening clipper located near PAH at 00Z will slide quickly
across southern Kentucky tonight, bringing precipitation and low
ceilings to BWG while leaving SDF and LEX largely unscathed.  Could
see a few sprinkles or flurries at the northern TAF sites, and some
model data suggest the possibility of an intermittent MVFR ceiling
at SDF from 06Z to 10Z, but otherwise those TAF sites will remain
VFR for the forecast period. Variable winds this evening will become
northwest in the 5 to 10 knot range after midnight and continue that
way into the daylight hours Thursday.

Fortunately at BWG, the worst conditions will occur overnight when
there is little if any activity at the airport.  Ceilings will
gradually lower this evening and become MVFR, with light rain moving
in this evening changing to light snow late this evening into the
pre dawn hours.  There are some IFR and even LIFR ceilings and
visibilities upstream, but with the weakening state of the incoming
disturbance will keep BWG MVFR for now, though will take ceilings
below 2000 feet.  Conditions should rapidly improve by sunup as the
clipper leaves, though some residual moisture will create scattered
(maybe broken at times) clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270145
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Overall the forecast is in good shape.  Only significant change
made at this time is to ramp PoPs up to 100% where precipitation is
currently falling or is imminent.  Did increase PoPs just a bit
along the northern edge of the band as well. PoP changes were based
off of mesoscale model data and current radar information.

Clipper low at 01Z was centered between Paducah and Evansville, with
a surface trof reaching northwestward into Illinois.  This system
will move quickly eastward across the region tonight.  Light rain
has been falling ahead of the clipper, with light snow behind it in
the colder air.

The rain/snow line has been creeping slowly but steadily
southeastward, and the freezing level aloft has been lowering very
slowly over the past few hours as indicated by radar.  So, some
light snow is still expected after midnight across portions of
central and south central Kentucky.  There still appears to be only
minor impact, though, with warm surface temperatures, warm boundary
layer temperatures, and the fact that the snow will be falling
during the late night/pre-dawn hours.  Nevertheless, something to
keep an eye on for anyone out traveling overnight in central
Kentucky.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

A weakening clipper located near PAH at 00Z will slide quickly
across southern Kentucky tonight, bringing precipitation and low
ceilings to BWG while leaving SDF and LEX largely unscathed.  Could
see a few sprinkles or flurries at the northern TAF sites, and some
model data suggest the possibility of an intermittent MVFR ceiling
at SDF from 06Z to 10Z, but otherwise those TAF sites will remain
VFR for the forecast period. Variable winds this evening will become
northwest in the 5 to 10 knot range after midnight and continue that
way into the daylight hours Thursday.

Fortunately at BWG, the worst conditions will occur overnight when
there is little if any activity at the airport.  Ceilings will
gradually lower this evening and become MVFR, with light rain moving
in this evening changing to light snow late this evening into the
pre dawn hours.  There are some IFR and even LIFR ceilings and
visibilities upstream, but with the weakening state of the incoming
disturbance will keep BWG MVFR for now, though will take ceilings
below 2000 feet.  Conditions should rapidly improve by sunup as the
clipper leaves, though some residual moisture will create scattered
(maybe broken at times) clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 262324
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
624 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

A weakening clipper located near PAH at 00Z will slide quickly
across southern Kentucky tonight, bringing precipitation and low
ceilings to BWG while leaving SDF and LEX largely unscathed.  Could
see a few sprinkles or flurries at the northern TAF sites, and some
model data suggest the possibility of an intermittent MVFR ceiling
at SDF from 06Z to 10Z, but otherwise those TAF sites will remain
VFR for the forecast period. Variable winds this evening will become
northwest in the 5 to 10 knot range after midnight and continue that
way into the daylight hours Thursday.

Fortunately at BWG, the worst conditions will occur overnight when
there is little if any activity at the airport.  Ceilings will
gradually lower this evening and become MVFR, with light rain moving
in this evening changing to light snow late this evening into the
pre dawn hours.  There are some IFR and even LIFR ceilings and
visibilities upstream, but with the weakening state of the incoming
disturbance will keep BWG MVFR for now, though will take ceilings
below 2000 feet.  Conditions should rapidly improve by sunup as the
clipper leaves, though some residual moisture will create scattered
(maybe broken at times) clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 262324
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
624 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

A weakening clipper located near PAH at 00Z will slide quickly
across southern Kentucky tonight, bringing precipitation and low
ceilings to BWG while leaving SDF and LEX largely unscathed.  Could
see a few sprinkles or flurries at the northern TAF sites, and some
model data suggest the possibility of an intermittent MVFR ceiling
at SDF from 06Z to 10Z, but otherwise those TAF sites will remain
VFR for the forecast period. Variable winds this evening will become
northwest in the 5 to 10 knot range after midnight and continue that
way into the daylight hours Thursday.

Fortunately at BWG, the worst conditions will occur overnight when
there is little if any activity at the airport.  Ceilings will
gradually lower this evening and become MVFR, with light rain moving
in this evening changing to light snow late this evening into the
pre dawn hours.  There are some IFR and even LIFR ceilings and
visibilities upstream, but with the weakening state of the incoming
disturbance will keep BWG MVFR for now, though will take ceilings
below 2000 feet.  Conditions should rapidly improve by sunup as the
clipper leaves, though some residual moisture will create scattered
(maybe broken at times) clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262003
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1205 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set will be the impact and extent of the
Clipper system passing across Kentucky overnight. Confidence is
fairly high that there will be at least minor impact in BWG, and
little or no impact in LEX, while SDF is a bit more uncertain.

Greatest forcing will be across BWG from roughly 04-10Z, and the
column will be cool enough to support snow. Most likely scenario is
high-end MVFR ceiling and vis with light snow, but could briefly go
fuel-alternate or even IFR. Not confident enough in the timing to
include a TEMPO. SDF and LEX will be a bit far north to get in on
significant precip, but will carry VCSH for a few hrs overnight with
ceilings just barely VFR.

Modest cold advection will increase NW winds to around 10 kt on
Thursday morning. However, mixing will not be too deep so gust
potential is limited, and cig/vis recover to VFR across the board.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262003
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1205 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set will be the impact and extent of the
Clipper system passing across Kentucky overnight. Confidence is
fairly high that there will be at least minor impact in BWG, and
little or no impact in LEX, while SDF is a bit more uncertain.

Greatest forcing will be across BWG from roughly 04-10Z, and the
column will be cool enough to support snow. Most likely scenario is
high-end MVFR ceiling and vis with light snow, but could briefly go
fuel-alternate or even IFR. Not confident enough in the timing to
include a TEMPO. SDF and LEX will be a bit far north to get in on
significant precip, but will carry VCSH for a few hrs overnight with
ceilings just barely VFR.

Modest cold advection will increase NW winds to around 10 kt on
Thursday morning. However, mixing will not be too deep so gust
potential is limited, and cig/vis recover to VFR across the board.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261119
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
619 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Wintry Mix Tonight and Early Thursday Morning...

In the near term, quiet weather was noted across the forecast area
this morning.  On IR satellite this morning, a classic baroclinic
leaf structure was observed over our area.  This feature has led to
mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half of the state while the
western sections of the state have remained mostly clear.  Within
the cloudy areas, temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 30s.
However, in the clear areas, temperatures had fallen off into
lower-middle 20s.  Over the next few hours, we expect the cloudiness
in the east to lift eastward. This should allow temperatures out in
the central sections to fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

For today, we`ll start off dry across the region as high pressure
pushes eastward and away from the region.  Clouds will be on the
increase throughout the day as a fast moving clipper system will
approach from the northwest/west.  Highs this afternoon will likely
warm into the lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s across the
south.  As the clipper approaches, strong mid-level frontogenesis
will increase within the tight gradient of the jet streak
approaching aloft.  This will allow precipitation to streak in from
the west late this afternoon.  At this time, it appears that the
best chances of rain this afternoon will be out across our
southwestern half of the forecast area, with lesser chance up across
the Bluegrass region.

For tonight, the latest guidance continue to be in general agreement
with swinging the clipper through the region.  There continues to be
some variability in the track of the system.  The NAM guidance is
still on the southern side of the envelope while the GFS solutions
are a little more north.  Tracks aside, the challenge here will be
where and/if a narrow band of heavier precipitation develops just
north of the eventual surface track.  Low-level thermal profiles
continue to start off warm with precipitation starting off as mainly
rain.  However, as heavier precipitation develops this may result in
some colder air being dragged down and pushing the profile cold
enough to produce snow...despite surface temps above 32.  Wetbulb
temps still look to be just above freezing through much of the event
as well.

At this time, we believe that we`ll see a band of moderate
precipitation move across our southern half of the forecast area
this evening. As mentioned above, a very narrow band of moderate to
even heavy precipitation may develop.  As the evening wears on, we
should see all precipitation change over to snow by midnight and
then taper off from west to east during the late night hours.
Surface temperatures are likely to remain in the lower-middle 30s
(and above freezing) for much of the event.  So despite it snowing,
the relatively warm ground and expected surface temperatures will
likely limit overall accumulations...to mainly elevated and grassy
surfaces.  The best chances of snow accumulations would be along and
south of I-64...mainly in a swath from Owensboro to Somerset.  For
now, plan on going with an inch or less of accumulation.  However,
upcoming shifts will need to monitor upstream data and later runs to
see if additional changes to the forecast will be required.

For Thursday, some lingering snow flurries will be possible in the
morning before skies start to clear in the afternoon from west to
east. It will be a cold Thanksgiving with highs only warming into
the mid-upper 30s across the region.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure building
in from the west. Temperatures will be chilly with lows in the lower
to mid 20s. The high pressure will shift east of the area Friday
bringing a return to southerly winds.

Southerly flow will continue into the weekend as the high pressure
remains just off the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system will move out of the upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes
region. The cold front associated with this looks to slowly move
through Sunday night into Monday. With warm and moist air flowing
into the region ahead of this front, scattered showers will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday. The best chance for rain will
be Sunday night and Monday as the front moves through. A few showers
may hang around Monday night as the front continues to slowly sink
southward. However, Tuesday itself looks to be dry with high
pressure ridging in from the north.

Temperatures will warm quite nicely this weekend. While highs on
Friday will be in the 40s, by Sunday they look to top out in the
lower 60s. Lows Sunday morning will fall only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures Monday will be tricky with the cold front
moving through and cooler air filtering in behind it. At least a
part of the area should see some warming through the day, however.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected through much of the day at the terminals
as we sit between weather systems.  The next weather system in the
form of an Alberta clipper will drop southeastward into the region
late this afternoon and this evening.  As this system approaches it
will bring clouds and precipitation in the form of rain.  Based on
the latest data, the best precipitation chances look to be at KBWG
through the period...with just more scattered rain showers at KLEX
and KSDF.  As the column cools tonight, the rain is expected to mix
with and change over to snow before diminishing by early Thursday
morning.  Primarily VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX,
however, it appears that a period of MVFR conditions will be likely
at KBWG mainly between 27/04-10Z.  Conditions look to improve by
27/10-12Z at all the terminals as the clipper system pulls on off to
th east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261119
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
619 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Wintry Mix Tonight and Early Thursday Morning...

In the near term, quiet weather was noted across the forecast area
this morning.  On IR satellite this morning, a classic baroclinic
leaf structure was observed over our area.  This feature has led to
mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half of the state while the
western sections of the state have remained mostly clear.  Within
the cloudy areas, temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 30s.
However, in the clear areas, temperatures had fallen off into
lower-middle 20s.  Over the next few hours, we expect the cloudiness
in the east to lift eastward. This should allow temperatures out in
the central sections to fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

For today, we`ll start off dry across the region as high pressure
pushes eastward and away from the region.  Clouds will be on the
increase throughout the day as a fast moving clipper system will
approach from the northwest/west.  Highs this afternoon will likely
warm into the lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s across the
south.  As the clipper approaches, strong mid-level frontogenesis
will increase within the tight gradient of the jet streak
approaching aloft.  This will allow precipitation to streak in from
the west late this afternoon.  At this time, it appears that the
best chances of rain this afternoon will be out across our
southwestern half of the forecast area, with lesser chance up across
the Bluegrass region.

For tonight, the latest guidance continue to be in general agreement
with swinging the clipper through the region.  There continues to be
some variability in the track of the system.  The NAM guidance is
still on the southern side of the envelope while the GFS solutions
are a little more north.  Tracks aside, the challenge here will be
where and/if a narrow band of heavier precipitation develops just
north of the eventual surface track.  Low-level thermal profiles
continue to start off warm with precipitation starting off as mainly
rain.  However, as heavier precipitation develops this may result in
some colder air being dragged down and pushing the profile cold
enough to produce snow...despite surface temps above 32.  Wetbulb
temps still look to be just above freezing through much of the event
as well.

At this time, we believe that we`ll see a band of moderate
precipitation move across our southern half of the forecast area
this evening. As mentioned above, a very narrow band of moderate to
even heavy precipitation may develop.  As the evening wears on, we
should see all precipitation change over to snow by midnight and
then taper off from west to east during the late night hours.
Surface temperatures are likely to remain in the lower-middle 30s
(and above freezing) for much of the event.  So despite it snowing,
the relatively warm ground and expected surface temperatures will
likely limit overall accumulations...to mainly elevated and grassy
surfaces.  The best chances of snow accumulations would be along and
south of I-64...mainly in a swath from Owensboro to Somerset.  For
now, plan on going with an inch or less of accumulation.  However,
upcoming shifts will need to monitor upstream data and later runs to
see if additional changes to the forecast will be required.

For Thursday, some lingering snow flurries will be possible in the
morning before skies start to clear in the afternoon from west to
east. It will be a cold Thanksgiving with highs only warming into
the mid-upper 30s across the region.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure building
in from the west. Temperatures will be chilly with lows in the lower
to mid 20s. The high pressure will shift east of the area Friday
bringing a return to southerly winds.

Southerly flow will continue into the weekend as the high pressure
remains just off the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system will move out of the upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes
region. The cold front associated with this looks to slowly move
through Sunday night into Monday. With warm and moist air flowing
into the region ahead of this front, scattered showers will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday. The best chance for rain will
be Sunday night and Monday as the front moves through. A few showers
may hang around Monday night as the front continues to slowly sink
southward. However, Tuesday itself looks to be dry with high
pressure ridging in from the north.

Temperatures will warm quite nicely this weekend. While highs on
Friday will be in the 40s, by Sunday they look to top out in the
lower 60s. Lows Sunday morning will fall only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures Monday will be tricky with the cold front
moving through and cooler air filtering in behind it. At least a
part of the area should see some warming through the day, however.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected through much of the day at the terminals
as we sit between weather systems.  The next weather system in the
form of an Alberta clipper will drop southeastward into the region
late this afternoon and this evening.  As this system approaches it
will bring clouds and precipitation in the form of rain.  Based on
the latest data, the best precipitation chances look to be at KBWG
through the period...with just more scattered rain showers at KLEX
and KSDF.  As the column cools tonight, the rain is expected to mix
with and change over to snow before diminishing by early Thursday
morning.  Primarily VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX,
however, it appears that a period of MVFR conditions will be likely
at KBWG mainly between 27/04-10Z.  Conditions look to improve by
27/10-12Z at all the terminals as the clipper system pulls on off to
th east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260832
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Wintry Mix Tonight and Early Thursday Morning...

In the near term, quiet weather was noted across the forecast area
this morning.  On IR satellite this morning, a classic baroclinic
leaf structure was observed over our area.  This feature has led to
mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half of the state while the
western sections of the state have remained mostly clear.  Within
the cloudy areas, temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 30s.
However, in the clear areas, temperatures had fallen off into
lower-middle 20s.  Over the next few hours, we expect the cloudiness
in the east to lift eastward. This should allow temperatures out in
the central sections to fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

For today, we`ll start off dry across the region as high pressure
pushes eastward and away from the region.  Clouds will be on the
increase throughout the day as a fast moving clipper system will
approach from the northwest/west.  Highs this afternoon will likely
warm into the lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s across the
south.  As the clipper approaches, strong mid-level frontogenesis
will increase within the tight gradient of the jet streak
approaching aloft.  This will allow precipitation to streak in from
the west late this afternoon.  At this time, it appears that the
best chances of rain this afternoon will be out across our
southwestern half of the forecast area, with lesser chance up across
the Bluegrass region.

For tonight, the latest guidance continue to be in general agreement
with swinging the clipper through the region.  There continues to be
some variability in the track of the system.  The NAM guidance is
still on the southern side of the envelope while the GFS solutions
are a little more north.  Tracks aside, the challenge here will be
where and/if a narrow band of heavier precipitation develops just
north of the eventual surface track.  Low-level thermal profiles
continue to start off warm with precipitation starting off as mainly
rain.  However, as heavier precipitation develops this may result in
some colder air being dragged down and pushing the profile cold
enough to produce snow...despite surface temps above 32.  Wetbulb
temps still look to be just above freezing through much of the event
as well.

At this time, we believe that we`ll see a band of moderate
precipitation move across our southern half of the forecast area
this evening. As mentioned above, a very narrow band of moderate to
even heavy precipitation may develop.  As the evening wears on, we
should see all precipitation change over to snow by midnight and
then taper off from west to east during the late night hours.
Surface temperatures are likely to remain in the lower-middle 30s
(and above freezing) for much of the event.  So despite it snowing,
the relatively warm ground and expected surface temperatures will
likely limit overall accumulations...to mainly elevated and grassy
surfaces.  The best chances of snow accumulations would be along and
south of I-64...mainly in a swath from Owensboro to Somerset.  For
now, plan on going with an inch or less of accumulation.  However,
upcoming shifts will need to monitor upstream data and later runs to
see if additional changes to the forecast will be required.

For Thursday, some lingering snow flurries will be possible in the
morning before skies start to clear in the afternoon from west to
east. It will be a cold Thanksgiving with highs only warming into
the mid-upper 30s across the region.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure building
in from the west. Temperatures will be chilly with lows in the lower
to mid 20s. The high pressure will shift east of the area Friday
bringing a return to southerly winds.

Southerly flow will continue into the weekend as the high pressure
remains just off the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system will move out of the upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes
region. The cold front associated with this looks to slowly move
through Sunday night into Monday. With warm and moist air flowing
into the region ahead of this front, scattered showers will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday. The best chance for rain will
be Sunday night and Monday as the front moves through. A few showers
may hang around Monday night as the front continues to slowly sink
southward. However, Tuesday itself looks to be dry with high
pressure ridging in from the north.

Temperatures will warm quite nicely this weekend. While highs on
Friday will be in the 40s, by Sunday they look to top out in the
lower 60s. Lows Sunday morning will fall only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures Monday will be tricky with the cold front
moving through and cooler air filtering in behind it. At least a
part of the area should see some warming through the day, however.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected overnight as we will remain in between
weather systems.  High ceilings are expected along and east of I-65
overnight as well advertised east coast storm gets organized and
moves northeast.  These high clouds will move out toward morning.
Winds overnight are expected to be light and variable at KBWG with
a light northeasterly wind at KSDF and KLEX.  Next weather system
will be a fast moving clipper that will dive into the region from
the west later today.  This will bring clouds to the region by
evening with rain showers moving into areas mainly west of I-65 by
evening.  A relatively warm boundary layer will keep precipitation
in the form of rain at the start of the event, but colder air
flowing in behind the system will result in change over to snow by
Thursday morning.  More details on tonight`s system will be
forthcoming in the 26/12Z TAF package later this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260832
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Wintry Mix Tonight and Early Thursday Morning...

In the near term, quiet weather was noted across the forecast area
this morning.  On IR satellite this morning, a classic baroclinic
leaf structure was observed over our area.  This feature has led to
mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half of the state while the
western sections of the state have remained mostly clear.  Within
the cloudy areas, temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 30s.
However, in the clear areas, temperatures had fallen off into
lower-middle 20s.  Over the next few hours, we expect the cloudiness
in the east to lift eastward. This should allow temperatures out in
the central sections to fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

For today, we`ll start off dry across the region as high pressure
pushes eastward and away from the region.  Clouds will be on the
increase throughout the day as a fast moving clipper system will
approach from the northwest/west.  Highs this afternoon will likely
warm into the lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s across the
south.  As the clipper approaches, strong mid-level frontogenesis
will increase within the tight gradient of the jet streak
approaching aloft.  This will allow precipitation to streak in from
the west late this afternoon.  At this time, it appears that the
best chances of rain this afternoon will be out across our
southwestern half of the forecast area, with lesser chance up across
the Bluegrass region.

For tonight, the latest guidance continue to be in general agreement
with swinging the clipper through the region.  There continues to be
some variability in the track of the system.  The NAM guidance is
still on the southern side of the envelope while the GFS solutions
are a little more north.  Tracks aside, the challenge here will be
where and/if a narrow band of heavier precipitation develops just
north of the eventual surface track.  Low-level thermal profiles
continue to start off warm with precipitation starting off as mainly
rain.  However, as heavier precipitation develops this may result in
some colder air being dragged down and pushing the profile cold
enough to produce snow...despite surface temps above 32.  Wetbulb
temps still look to be just above freezing through much of the event
as well.

At this time, we believe that we`ll see a band of moderate
precipitation move across our southern half of the forecast area
this evening. As mentioned above, a very narrow band of moderate to
even heavy precipitation may develop.  As the evening wears on, we
should see all precipitation change over to snow by midnight and
then taper off from west to east during the late night hours.
Surface temperatures are likely to remain in the lower-middle 30s
(and above freezing) for much of the event.  So despite it snowing,
the relatively warm ground and expected surface temperatures will
likely limit overall accumulations...to mainly elevated and grassy
surfaces.  The best chances of snow accumulations would be along and
south of I-64...mainly in a swath from Owensboro to Somerset.  For
now, plan on going with an inch or less of accumulation.  However,
upcoming shifts will need to monitor upstream data and later runs to
see if additional changes to the forecast will be required.

For Thursday, some lingering snow flurries will be possible in the
morning before skies start to clear in the afternoon from west to
east. It will be a cold Thanksgiving with highs only warming into
the mid-upper 30s across the region.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure building
in from the west. Temperatures will be chilly with lows in the lower
to mid 20s. The high pressure will shift east of the area Friday
bringing a return to southerly winds.

Southerly flow will continue into the weekend as the high pressure
remains just off the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system will move out of the upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes
region. The cold front associated with this looks to slowly move
through Sunday night into Monday. With warm and moist air flowing
into the region ahead of this front, scattered showers will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday. The best chance for rain will
be Sunday night and Monday as the front moves through. A few showers
may hang around Monday night as the front continues to slowly sink
southward. However, Tuesday itself looks to be dry with high
pressure ridging in from the north.

Temperatures will warm quite nicely this weekend. While highs on
Friday will be in the 40s, by Sunday they look to top out in the
lower 60s. Lows Sunday morning will fall only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures Monday will be tricky with the cold front
moving through and cooler air filtering in behind it. At least a
part of the area should see some warming through the day, however.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected overnight as we will remain in between
weather systems.  High ceilings are expected along and east of I-65
overnight as well advertised east coast storm gets organized and
moves northeast.  These high clouds will move out toward morning.
Winds overnight are expected to be light and variable at KBWG with
a light northeasterly wind at KSDF and KLEX.  Next weather system
will be a fast moving clipper that will dive into the region from
the west later today.  This will bring clouds to the region by
evening with rain showers moving into areas mainly west of I-65 by
evening.  A relatively warm boundary layer will keep precipitation
in the form of rain at the start of the event, but colder air
flowing in behind the system will result in change over to snow by
Thursday morning.  More details on tonight`s system will be
forthcoming in the 26/12Z TAF package later this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 260508
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1007 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

We will continue to enjoy quiet weather tonight.  The forecast is in
good shape and no major changes are needed.

Taking a quick peek ahead to tomorrow night`s clipper...  Over its
last five runs the GFS has trended slower with onset in the west,
and over its past three runs has suppressed the main precipitation
farther south into southern Kentucky.  The entire region will still
probably see some precipitation, but the best chances appear to be
concentrating over the southern half of Kentucky.  The system will
be weakening as it enters the region.

The precipitation will begin as light rain in the evening before
transitioning to light snow for the overnight hours.  The ground
will be warm (and possibly wet) after having experienced afternoon
air temperatures peaking in the middle 40s.  Also, near-surface
temperatures through the night will mostly be in the middle 30s,
possibly dipping into the lower 30s by morning.  So, even areas that
do get several hours of light snow should see minimal impact.
Overall most locations should see less than an inch and mostly in
grassy areas.  Of course, if a narrow band develops and trains from
northwest to southeast, then locally higher amounts could be
realized.

The most likely timing for any accumulating snow will be between
midnight and dawn, which is another factor leading to the thinking
that impact from this system will not be great.

Of course, winter weather can change quickly, so be sure to keep up
with the latest forecasts, especially if you`re planning to travel
Wednesday night.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

...Wintry mix possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features broad troughing across
much of the CONUS, making for temperatures continuing to run below
normal.  A clipper system will dive southeast through the trough
aloft tomorrow into tomorrow night, bringing the potential for a
wintry mix to portions of the region.

Conditions will remain tranquil tonight as high pressure settles
into the region.  High clouds passing across portions of eastern KY
will likely help keep temperatures up a bit there, otherwise most
other locations should dip into the mid and upper 20s.

Wednesday will start off dry as high pressure slowly drifts east of
the region.  However, attention will quickly turn to the northwest
as a clipper system dives southeast through portions of the Midwest
and into the Ohio Valley.  The left-exit region of the upper jet
will help induce a tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which
should lead to a frontogenetically induced band of precipitation.

The main forecast challenge will be both with the exact track of
this narrow precip band, along with the thermal profiles beneath
it.  The latest guidance continues its trend of dipping the bulk of
the precipitation further south into central and southern KY.  This
is not a huge surprise given that this northward placement is a
known bias in most numerical guidance.  With better convergence of
the model solutions, have gone ahead and upped pops across portions
of southern KY, while dropping them slightly for portions of
southern IN/northern KY.  The hardest challenge with this event will
be low-level thermal profiles.  The good news is that it appears
surface wet bulb temperatures will remain above zero through the
event.  However, if we get heavy enough rates, it could wet bulb the
column down just enough to set up a very narrow band of moderate
snow.  Looking at the forcing, it appears to be weakening as it
enters the Ohio Valley, given a weakening upper-level jet structure
and the fgen response.  Therefore, while a band of moderate
precipitation will likely still move across portions of
central/southern KY, not sold it will be long-lived enough to wet
bulb the column and give widespread snow.  Given the surface low
will also be weakening as it moves into the region, surface cold air
advection will likely not play too much of a role either.

Bottom line is that this event will start as rain and remain mostly
as rain.  However, rates may become just enough to wet bulb the
column and allow for some wet snow to mix in.  If this does occur, a
moderate burst of snow could drop a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation briefly, before melting again once rates decrease.
All-in-all, not much, if any, impacts are expected from this event.

Ahead of the system, highs will climb into the low to mid 40s
tomorrow (warming ground/road temps ahead of this event).  Behind
this system, overnight lows tomorrow night will dip into the upper
20s and lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

Thanksgiving Day may just be the coldest day of the long term.
Models had been divergent on a cold front coming into the region for
the weekend, but now they stall the front to our north Saturday and
Sunday before slowly pushing it through at some point early next
work week. That will mean an above normal forecast for temperatures
this weekend, but also a better chance for rains starting Saturday
night. The front will be to our north, but warm/moist air riding
near that front would promote showers and storms over an extended
period of time, at least into Monday. A lot will depend on the
location of that front Monday and Tuesday, so will lean towards
climatology and start decreasing pops by Day 7 (Tuesday).

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected overnight as we will remain in between
weather systems.  High ceilings are expected along and east of I-65
overnight as well advertised east coast storm gets organized and
moves northeast.  These high clouds will move out toward morning.
Winds overnight are expected to be light and variable at KBWG with
a light northeasterly wind at KSDF and KLEX.  Next weather system
will be a fast moving clipper that will dive into the region from
the west later today.  This will bring clouds to the region by
evening with rain showers moving into areas mainly west of I-65 by
evening.  A relatively warm boundary layer will keep precipitation
in the form of rain at the start of the event, but colder air
flowing in behind the system will result in change over to snow by
Thursday morning.  More details on tonight`s system will be
forthcoming in the 26/12Z TAF package later this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 260508
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1007 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

We will continue to enjoy quiet weather tonight.  The forecast is in
good shape and no major changes are needed.

Taking a quick peek ahead to tomorrow night`s clipper...  Over its
last five runs the GFS has trended slower with onset in the west,
and over its past three runs has suppressed the main precipitation
farther south into southern Kentucky.  The entire region will still
probably see some precipitation, but the best chances appear to be
concentrating over the southern half of Kentucky.  The system will
be weakening as it enters the region.

The precipitation will begin as light rain in the evening before
transitioning to light snow for the overnight hours.  The ground
will be warm (and possibly wet) after having experienced afternoon
air temperatures peaking in the middle 40s.  Also, near-surface
temperatures through the night will mostly be in the middle 30s,
possibly dipping into the lower 30s by morning.  So, even areas that
do get several hours of light snow should see minimal impact.
Overall most locations should see less than an inch and mostly in
grassy areas.  Of course, if a narrow band develops and trains from
northwest to southeast, then locally higher amounts could be
realized.

The most likely timing for any accumulating snow will be between
midnight and dawn, which is another factor leading to the thinking
that impact from this system will not be great.

Of course, winter weather can change quickly, so be sure to keep up
with the latest forecasts, especially if you`re planning to travel
Wednesday night.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

...Wintry mix possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features broad troughing across
much of the CONUS, making for temperatures continuing to run below
normal.  A clipper system will dive southeast through the trough
aloft tomorrow into tomorrow night, bringing the potential for a
wintry mix to portions of the region.

Conditions will remain tranquil tonight as high pressure settles
into the region.  High clouds passing across portions of eastern KY
will likely help keep temperatures up a bit there, otherwise most
other locations should dip into the mid and upper 20s.

Wednesday will start off dry as high pressure slowly drifts east of
the region.  However, attention will quickly turn to the northwest
as a clipper system dives southeast through portions of the Midwest
and into the Ohio Valley.  The left-exit region of the upper jet
will help induce a tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which
should lead to a frontogenetically induced band of precipitation.

The main forecast challenge will be both with the exact track of
this narrow precip band, along with the thermal profiles beneath
it.  The latest guidance continues its trend of dipping the bulk of
the precipitation further south into central and southern KY.  This
is not a huge surprise given that this northward placement is a
known bias in most numerical guidance.  With better convergence of
the model solutions, have gone ahead and upped pops across portions
of southern KY, while dropping them slightly for portions of
southern IN/northern KY.  The hardest challenge with this event will
be low-level thermal profiles.  The good news is that it appears
surface wet bulb temperatures will remain above zero through the
event.  However, if we get heavy enough rates, it could wet bulb the
column down just enough to set up a very narrow band of moderate
snow.  Looking at the forcing, it appears to be weakening as it
enters the Ohio Valley, given a weakening upper-level jet structure
and the fgen response.  Therefore, while a band of moderate
precipitation will likely still move across portions of
central/southern KY, not sold it will be long-lived enough to wet
bulb the column and give widespread snow.  Given the surface low
will also be weakening as it moves into the region, surface cold air
advection will likely not play too much of a role either.

Bottom line is that this event will start as rain and remain mostly
as rain.  However, rates may become just enough to wet bulb the
column and allow for some wet snow to mix in.  If this does occur, a
moderate burst of snow could drop a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation briefly, before melting again once rates decrease.
All-in-all, not much, if any, impacts are expected from this event.

Ahead of the system, highs will climb into the low to mid 40s
tomorrow (warming ground/road temps ahead of this event).  Behind
this system, overnight lows tomorrow night will dip into the upper
20s and lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

Thanksgiving Day may just be the coldest day of the long term.
Models had been divergent on a cold front coming into the region for
the weekend, but now they stall the front to our north Saturday and
Sunday before slowly pushing it through at some point early next
work week. That will mean an above normal forecast for temperatures
this weekend, but also a better chance for rains starting Saturday
night. The front will be to our north, but warm/moist air riding
near that front would promote showers and storms over an extended
period of time, at least into Monday. A lot will depend on the
location of that front Monday and Tuesday, so will lean towards
climatology and start decreasing pops by Day 7 (Tuesday).

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected overnight as we will remain in between
weather systems.  High ceilings are expected along and east of I-65
overnight as well advertised east coast storm gets organized and
moves northeast.  These high clouds will move out toward morning.
Winds overnight are expected to be light and variable at KBWG with
a light northeasterly wind at KSDF and KLEX.  Next weather system
will be a fast moving clipper that will dive into the region from
the west later today.  This will bring clouds to the region by
evening with rain showers moving into areas mainly west of I-65 by
evening.  A relatively warm boundary layer will keep precipitation
in the form of rain at the start of the event, but colder air
flowing in behind the system will result in change over to snow by
Thursday morning.  More details on tonight`s system will be
forthcoming in the 26/12Z TAF package later this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260307
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1007 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1007 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

We will continue to enjoy quiet weather tonight.  The forecast is in
good shape and no major changes are needed.

Taking a quick peek ahead to tomorrow night`s clipper...  Over its
last five runs the GFS has trended slower with onset in the west,
and over its past three runs has suppressed the main precipitation
farther south into southern Kentucky.  The entire region will still
probably see some precipitation, but the best chances appear to be
concentrating over the southern half of Kentucky.  The system will
be weakening as it enters the region.

The precipitation will begin as light rain in the evening before
transitioning to light snow for the overnight hours.  The ground
will be warm (and possibly wet) after having experienced afternoon
air temperatures peaking in the middle 40s.  Also, near-surface
temperatures through the night will mostly be in the middle 30s,
possibly dipping into the lower 30s by morning.  So, even areas that
do get several hours of light snow should see minimal impact.
Overall most locations should see less than an inch and mostly in
grassy areas.  Of course, if a narrow band develops and trains from
northwest to southeast, then locally higher amounts could be
realized.

The most likely timing for any accumulating snow will be between
midnight and dawn, which is another factor leading to the thinking
that impact from this system will not be great.

Of course, winter weather can change quickly, so be sure to keep up
with the latest forecasts, especially if you`re planning to travel
Wednesday night.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

...Wintry mix possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features broad troughing across
much of the CONUS, making for temperatures continuing to run below
normal.  A clipper system will dive southeast through the trough
aloft tomorrow into tomorrow night, bringing the potential for a
wintry mix to portions of the region.

Conditions will remain tranquil tonight as high pressure settles
into the region.  High clouds passing across portions of eastern KY
will likely help keep temperatures up a bit there, otherwise most
other locations should dip into the mid and upper 20s.

Wednesday will start off dry as high pressure slowly drifts east of
the region.  However, attention will quickly turn to the northwest
as a clipper system dives southeast through portions of the Midwest
and into the Ohio Valley.  The left-exit region of the upper jet
will help induce a tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which
should lead to a frontogenetically induced band of precipitation.

The main forecast challenge will be both with the exact track of
this narrow precip band, along with the thermal profiles beneath
it.  The latest guidance continues its trend of dipping the bulk of
the precipitation further south into central and southern KY.  This
is not a huge surprise given that this northward placement is a
known bias in most numerical guidance.  With better convergence of
the model solutions, have gone ahead and upped pops across portions
of southern KY, while dropping them slightly for portions of
southern IN/northern KY.  The hardest challenge with this event will
be low-level thermal profiles.  The good news is that it appears
surface wet bulb temperatures will remain above zero through the
event.  However, if we get heavy enough rates, it could wet bulb the
column down just enough to set up a very narrow band of moderate
snow.  Looking at the forcing, it appears to be weakening as it
enters the Ohio Valley, given a weakening upper-level jet structure
and the fgen response.  Therefore, while a band of moderate
precipitation will likely still move across portions of
central/southern KY, not sold it will be long-lived enough to wet
bulb the column and give widespread snow.  Given the surface low
will also be weakening as it moves into the region, surface cold air
advection will likely not play too much of a role either.

Bottom line is that this event will start as rain and remain mostly
as rain.  However, rates may become just enough to wet bulb the
column and allow for some wet snow to mix in.  If this does occur, a
moderate burst of snow could drop a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation briefly, before melting again once rates decrease.
All-in-all, not much, if any, impacts are expected from this event.

Ahead of the system, highs will climb into the low to mid 40s
tomorrow (warming ground/road temps ahead of this event).  Behind
this system, overnight lows tomorrow night will dip into the upper
20s and lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

Thanksgiving Day may just be the coldest day of the long term.
Models had been divergent on a cold front coming into the region for
the weekend, but now they stall the front to our north Saturday and
Sunday before slowly pushing it through at some point early next
work week. That will mean an above normal forecast for temperatures
this weekend, but also a better chance for rains starting Saturday
night. The front will be to our north, but warm/moist air riding
near that front would promote showers and storms over an extended
period of time, at least into Monday. A lot will depend on the
location of that front Monday and Tuesday, so will lean towards
climatology and start decreasing pops by Day 7 (Tuesday).

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 627 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

One more quiet TAF period as we sit between a large system charging
up the East Coast and a smaller disturbance crossing the Plains
towards the Ohio Valley.  Winds will be light and variable with VFR
ceilings.  There is some concern that MVFR ceilings in southern
Indiana this evening may affect SDF, but at this time it looks like
they will remain just off to the north.

The aforementioned Plains disturbance will bring clouds and
precipitation to the region Wednesday night.  Will bring in some
lower ceilings at SDF but that`s about it for now.  Future forecasts
will refine the details for tomorrow night as the path of the
disturbance becomes more clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260307
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1007 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1007 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

We will continue to enjoy quiet weather tonight.  The forecast is in
good shape and no major changes are needed.

Taking a quick peek ahead to tomorrow night`s clipper...  Over its
last five runs the GFS has trended slower with onset in the west,
and over its past three runs has suppressed the main precipitation
farther south into southern Kentucky.  The entire region will still
probably see some precipitation, but the best chances appear to be
concentrating over the southern half of Kentucky.  The system will
be weakening as it enters the region.

The precipitation will begin as light rain in the evening before
transitioning to light snow for the overnight hours.  The ground
will be warm (and possibly wet) after having experienced afternoon
air temperatures peaking in the middle 40s.  Also, near-surface
temperatures through the night will mostly be in the middle 30s,
possibly dipping into the lower 30s by morning.  So, even areas that
do get several hours of light snow should see minimal impact.
Overall most locations should see less than an inch and mostly in
grassy areas.  Of course, if a narrow band develops and trains from
northwest to southeast, then locally higher amounts could be
realized.

The most likely timing for any accumulating snow will be between
midnight and dawn, which is another factor leading to the thinking
that impact from this system will not be great.

Of course, winter weather can change quickly, so be sure to keep up
with the latest forecasts, especially if you`re planning to travel
Wednesday night.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

...Wintry mix possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features broad troughing across
much of the CONUS, making for temperatures continuing to run below
normal.  A clipper system will dive southeast through the trough
aloft tomorrow into tomorrow night, bringing the potential for a
wintry mix to portions of the region.

Conditions will remain tranquil tonight as high pressure settles
into the region.  High clouds passing across portions of eastern KY
will likely help keep temperatures up a bit there, otherwise most
other locations should dip into the mid and upper 20s.

Wednesday will start off dry as high pressure slowly drifts east of
the region.  However, attention will quickly turn to the northwest
as a clipper system dives southeast through portions of the Midwest
and into the Ohio Valley.  The left-exit region of the upper jet
will help induce a tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which
should lead to a frontogenetically induced band of precipitation.

The main forecast challenge will be both with the exact track of
this narrow precip band, along with the thermal profiles beneath
it.  The latest guidance continues its trend of dipping the bulk of
the precipitation further south into central and southern KY.  This
is not a huge surprise given that this northward placement is a
known bias in most numerical guidance.  With better convergence of
the model solutions, have gone ahead and upped pops across portions
of southern KY, while dropping them slightly for portions of
southern IN/northern KY.  The hardest challenge with this event will
be low-level thermal profiles.  The good news is that it appears
surface wet bulb temperatures will remain above zero through the
event.  However, if we get heavy enough rates, it could wet bulb the
column down just enough to set up a very narrow band of moderate
snow.  Looking at the forcing, it appears to be weakening as it
enters the Ohio Valley, given a weakening upper-level jet structure
and the fgen response.  Therefore, while a band of moderate
precipitation will likely still move across portions of
central/southern KY, not sold it will be long-lived enough to wet
bulb the column and give widespread snow.  Given the surface low
will also be weakening as it moves into the region, surface cold air
advection will likely not play too much of a role either.

Bottom line is that this event will start as rain and remain mostly
as rain.  However, rates may become just enough to wet bulb the
column and allow for some wet snow to mix in.  If this does occur, a
moderate burst of snow could drop a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation briefly, before melting again once rates decrease.
All-in-all, not much, if any, impacts are expected from this event.

Ahead of the system, highs will climb into the low to mid 40s
tomorrow (warming ground/road temps ahead of this event).  Behind
this system, overnight lows tomorrow night will dip into the upper
20s and lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

Thanksgiving Day may just be the coldest day of the long term.
Models had been divergent on a cold front coming into the region for
the weekend, but now they stall the front to our north Saturday and
Sunday before slowly pushing it through at some point early next
work week. That will mean an above normal forecast for temperatures
this weekend, but also a better chance for rains starting Saturday
night. The front will be to our north, but warm/moist air riding
near that front would promote showers and storms over an extended
period of time, at least into Monday. A lot will depend on the
location of that front Monday and Tuesday, so will lean towards
climatology and start decreasing pops by Day 7 (Tuesday).

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 627 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

One more quiet TAF period as we sit between a large system charging
up the East Coast and a smaller disturbance crossing the Plains
towards the Ohio Valley.  Winds will be light and variable with VFR
ceilings.  There is some concern that MVFR ceilings in southern
Indiana this evening may affect SDF, but at this time it looks like
they will remain just off to the north.

The aforementioned Plains disturbance will bring clouds and
precipitation to the region Wednesday night.  Will bring in some
lower ceilings at SDF but that`s about it for now.  Future forecasts
will refine the details for tomorrow night as the path of the
disturbance becomes more clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 252327
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
627 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

...Wintry mix possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features broad troughing across
much of the CONUS, making for temperatures continuing to run below
normal.  A clipper system will dive southeast through the trough
aloft tomorrow into tomorrow night, bringing the potential for a
wintry mix to portions of the region.

Conditions will remain tranquil tonight as high pressure settles
into the region.  High clouds passing across portions of eastern KY
will likely help keep temperatures up a bit there, otherwise most
other locations should dip into the mid and upper 20s.

Wednesday will start off dry as high pressure slowly drifts east of
the region.  However, attention will quickly turn to the northwest
as a clipper system dives southeast through portions of the Midwest
and into the Ohio Valley.  The left-exit region of the upper jet
will help induce a tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which
should lead to a frontogenetically induced band of precipitation.

The main forecast challenge will be both with the exact track of
this narrow precip band, along with the thermal profiles beneath
it.  The latest guidance continues its trend of dipping the bulk of
the precipitation further south into central and southern KY.  This
is not a huge surprise given that this northward placement is a
known bias in most numerical guidance.  With better convergence of
the model solutions, have gone ahead and upped pops across portions
of southern KY, while dropping them slightly for portions of
southern IN/northern KY.  The hardest challenge with this event will
be low-level thermal profiles.  The good news is that it appears
surface wet bulb temperatures will remain above zero through the
event.  However, if we get heavy enough rates, it could wet bulb the
column down just enough to set up a very narrow band of moderate
snow.  Looking at the forcing, it appears to be weakening as it
enters the Ohio Valley, given a weakening upper-level jet structure
and the fgen response.  Therefore, while a band of moderate
precipitation will likely still move across portions of
central/southern KY, not sold it will be long-lived enough to wet
bulb the column and give widespread snow.  Given the surface low
will also be weakening as it moves into the region, surface cold air
advection will likely not play too much of a role either.

Bottom line is that this event will start as rain and remain mostly
as rain.  However, rates may become just enough to wet bulb the
column and allow for some wet snow to mix in.  If this does occur, a
moderate burst of snow could drop a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation briefly, before melting again once rates decrease.
All-in-all, not much, if any, impacts are expected from this event.

Ahead of the system, highs will climb into the low to mid 40s
tomorrow (warming ground/road temps ahead of this event).  Behind
this system, overnight lows tomorrow night will dip into the upper
20s and lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

Thanksgiving Day may just be the coldest day of the long term.
Models had been divergent on a cold front coming into the region for
the weekend, but now they stall the front to our north Saturday and
Sunday before slowly pushing it through at some point early next
work week. That will mean an above normal forecast for temperatures
this weekend, but also a better chance for rains starting Saturday
night. The front will be to our north, but warm/moist air riding
near that front would promote showers and storms over an extended
period of time, at least into Monday. A lot will depend on the
location of that front Monday and Tuesday, so will lean towards
climatology and start decreasing pops by Day 7 (Tuesday).

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 627 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

One more quiet TAF period as we sit between a large system charging
up the East Coast and a smaller disturbance crossing the Plains
towards the Ohio Valley.  Winds will be light and variable with VFR
ceilings.  There is some concern that MVFR ceilings in southern
Indiana this evening may affect SDF, but at this time it looks like
they will remain just off to the north.

The aforementioned Plains disturbance will bring clouds and
precipitation to the region Wednesday night.  Will bring in some
lower ceilings at SDF but that`s about it for now.  Future forecasts
will refine the details for tomorrow night as the path of the
disturbance becomes more clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 252327
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
627 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

...Wintry mix possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features broad troughing across
much of the CONUS, making for temperatures continuing to run below
normal.  A clipper system will dive southeast through the trough
aloft tomorrow into tomorrow night, bringing the potential for a
wintry mix to portions of the region.

Conditions will remain tranquil tonight as high pressure settles
into the region.  High clouds passing across portions of eastern KY
will likely help keep temperatures up a bit there, otherwise most
other locations should dip into the mid and upper 20s.

Wednesday will start off dry as high pressure slowly drifts east of
the region.  However, attention will quickly turn to the northwest
as a clipper system dives southeast through portions of the Midwest
and into the Ohio Valley.  The left-exit region of the upper jet
will help induce a tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which
should lead to a frontogenetically induced band of precipitation.

The main forecast challenge will be both with the exact track of
this narrow precip band, along with the thermal profiles beneath
it.  The latest guidance continues its trend of dipping the bulk of
the precipitation further south into central and southern KY.  This
is not a huge surprise given that this northward placement is a
known bias in most numerical guidance.  With better convergence of
the model solutions, have gone ahead and upped pops across portions
of southern KY, while dropping them slightly for portions of
southern IN/northern KY.  The hardest challenge with this event will
be low-level thermal profiles.  The good news is that it appears
surface wet bulb temperatures will remain above zero through the
event.  However, if we get heavy enough rates, it could wet bulb the
column down just enough to set up a very narrow band of moderate
snow.  Looking at the forcing, it appears to be weakening as it
enters the Ohio Valley, given a weakening upper-level jet structure
and the fgen response.  Therefore, while a band of moderate
precipitation will likely still move across portions of
central/southern KY, not sold it will be long-lived enough to wet
bulb the column and give widespread snow.  Given the surface low
will also be weakening as it moves into the region, surface cold air
advection will likely not play too much of a role either.

Bottom line is that this event will start as rain and remain mostly
as rain.  However, rates may become just enough to wet bulb the
column and allow for some wet snow to mix in.  If this does occur, a
moderate burst of snow could drop a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation briefly, before melting again once rates decrease.
All-in-all, not much, if any, impacts are expected from this event.

Ahead of the system, highs will climb into the low to mid 40s
tomorrow (warming ground/road temps ahead of this event).  Behind
this system, overnight lows tomorrow night will dip into the upper
20s and lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

Thanksgiving Day may just be the coldest day of the long term.
Models had been divergent on a cold front coming into the region for
the weekend, but now they stall the front to our north Saturday and
Sunday before slowly pushing it through at some point early next
work week. That will mean an above normal forecast for temperatures
this weekend, but also a better chance for rains starting Saturday
night. The front will be to our north, but warm/moist air riding
near that front would promote showers and storms over an extended
period of time, at least into Monday. A lot will depend on the
location of that front Monday and Tuesday, so will lean towards
climatology and start decreasing pops by Day 7 (Tuesday).

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 627 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

One more quiet TAF period as we sit between a large system charging
up the East Coast and a smaller disturbance crossing the Plains
towards the Ohio Valley.  Winds will be light and variable with VFR
ceilings.  There is some concern that MVFR ceilings in southern
Indiana this evening may affect SDF, but at this time it looks like
they will remain just off to the north.

The aforementioned Plains disturbance will bring clouds and
precipitation to the region Wednesday night.  Will bring in some
lower ceilings at SDF but that`s about it for now.  Future forecasts
will refine the details for tomorrow night as the path of the
disturbance becomes more clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 252011
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

...Wintry mix possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features broad troughing across
much of the CONUS, making for temperatures continuing to run below
normal.  A clipper system will dive southeast through the trough
aloft tomorrow into tomorrow night, bringing the potential for a
wintry mix to portions of the region.

Conditions will remain tranquil tonight as high pressure settles
into the region.  High clouds passing across portions of eastern KY
will likely help keep temperatures up a bit there, otherwise most
other locations should dip into the mid and upper 20s.

Wednesday will start off dry as high pressure slowly drifts east of
the region.  However, attention will quickly turn to the northwest
as a clipper system dives southeast through portions of the Midwest
and into the Ohio Valley.  The left-exit region will help induce a
tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which should lead to a
frontogenetically induced band of precipitation.

The main forecast challenge will be both with the exact track of
this narrow precip band, along with the thermal profiles beneath
it.  The latest guidance continues its trend of dipping the bulk of
the precipitation further south into central and southern KY.  This
is not a huge surprise given that this northward placement is a
known bias in most numerical guidance.  With better convergence of
the model solutions, have gone ahead and upped pops across portions
of southern KY, while dropping them slightly for portions of
southern IN/northern KY.  The hardest challenge with this event will
be low-level thermal profiles.  The good news is that it appears
surface wet bulb temperatures will remain above zero through the
event.  However, if we get heavy enough rates, it could wet bulb the
column down just enough to set up a very narrow band of moderate
snow.  Looking at the forcing, it appears to be weakening as it
enters the Ohio Valley, given a weakening upper-level jet structure
and the fgen response.  Therefore, while a band of moderate
precipitation will likely still move across portions of
central/southern KY, not sold it will be long-lived enough to wet
bulb the column and give widespread snow.  Given the surface low
will also be weakening as it moves into the region, surface cold air
advection will likely not play too much of a role either.

Bottom line is that this event will start as rain and remain mostly
as rain.  However, rates may become just enough to wet bulb the
column and allow for some wet snow to mix in.  If this does occur, a
moderate burst of snow could drop a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation briefly, before melting again once rates decrease.
All-in-all, not much, if any, impacts are expected from this event.

Ahead of the system, highs will climb into the low to mid 40s
tomorrow (warming ground/road temps ahead of this event).  Behind
this system, overnight lows tomorrow night will dip into the upper
20s and lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

Thanksgiving Day may just be the coldest day of the long term.
Models had been divergent on a cold front coming into the region for
the weekend, but now they stall the front to our north Saturday and
Sunday before slowly pushing it through at some point early next
work week. That will mean an above normal forecast for temperatures
this weekend, but also a better chance for rains starting Saturday
night. The front will be to our north, but warm/moist air riding
near that front would promote showers and storms over an extended
period of time, at least into Monday. A lot will depend on the
location of that front Monday and Tuesday, so will lean towards
climatology and start decreasing pops by Day 7 (Tuesday).

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1212 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.  Strato-cu
around FL025 continues to slowly sag to the south towards the Ohio
River.  It appears these clouds will remain just north of KSDF, but
can`t completely rule out some MVFR cigs for a time this
afternoon/evening.  Otherwise, generally light winds and partly
cloudy skies will persist at all sites tonight into early Wednesday
morning.  Clouds will begin to increase ahead of a disturbance
tomorrow, but all precip and cig/vsby restrictions will hold off
until after the valid TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251714
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1214 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

At 500mb, a broad trough will continue across the central CONUS
through late Wednesday. Surface ridging will settle over Texas, with
an associated ridge axis extending northeast across southern
Illinois. Expect seasonably chilly temperatures today with generally
light winds out of the west. Highs will range from the upper 30s
across southern Indiana to the mid 40s near Tennessee. A broad
shield of low strato-cu now over Indiana and Illinois will settle
slightly southwards by mid-morning and may bring a period of
cloudiness along and north of the Ohio River through late morning.
Farther south, mostly clear skies are anticipated.

Tonight, surface ridging overhead will lead to mostly clear skies
and light winds. Mid-level clouds from a developing east coast storm
may spread back as far west as eastern Kentucky. Lows will fall into
the mid to upper 20s.

For Wednesday, a coastal storm will spread ice and snow inland of
the major urban areas along the east coast. An compact upper
disturbance will track southeast across Iowa and into Missouri by
noon Wednesday. This "clipper" will eventually track across the
Commonwealth Wednesday night. Expect increasing high and mid-level
clouds by mid-afternoon ahead of this feature. Some light rain may
move into Kentucky west of Interstate 65 by late afternoon
Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will rise into the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Light Wintry Mix To Snow Likely Wednesday Night and Early
Thanksgiving Morning...

Wednesday Night through Friday Night...

Early in the forecast period, the upper level pattern will be rather
amplified aloft with a fairly decent trough in the east with a
corresponding ridge out across the western US.  The trough in the
east is expected to amplify a bit and result in a pre-Thanksgiving
day east coast storm across the eastern US.  As this storm develops
and moves up the eastern seaboard on Wednesday, we`ll be watching a
fast moving upper level disturbance that will pass through the
region Wednesday night bringing light precipitation to the region.

Overall, the model guidance continues to show better convergence
with the track and timing of the system for Wednesday night.  This
system will enter the region from the west Wednesday evening and
depart the region during the day on Thursday.  As it approaches,
precipitation will streak eastward across southern Indiana and much
of central Kentucky.  Thermal profiles at the beginning of the event
suggest a relatively warm boundary layer that will result in
precipitation falling in the form of light rain.  As we head through
the night, the boundary layer will cool and we should see a change
from rain to snow from south to north as the night wears on.  There
is some potential for this system to produce a little more snow than
current forecast by the models.

Model cross sections do continue to show a tightening of the
thermal gradient aloft due to the jet core passing by. This could
result in some heavier banded precipitation falling along and north
of the actual surface track.  A second form of potential is that we
could get a little bit of dynamical cooling to get the column to
cool faster than the models currently prog.  As previous forecast
noted, surface wetbulbs really stay at or above 0C through much of
the event, so snowfall accumulations still look generally light and
will likely be limited to elevated and grassy locations.  Surface
temperatures are expected to drop to near or just below freezing
Thursday morning, thus some isolated-scattered slick spots may be
possible around the region. Given the busy travel period, this is a
system that will continue to be monitored closely.

For Thanksgiving day, we will probably see some lingering snow
flurries in the east during the morning, with clearing skies
developing from west to east during the afternoon.  It will be a
cold Thanksgiving with highs topping out in the upper 30s.  Clearing
skies and light winds will allow temperatures Thursday night to drop
into the lower-middle 20s.  Dry conditions are expected for Friday
with highs topping out in the lower-mid 40s in the north and mid to
upper 40s across the south. Lows Friday night look to cool into the
lower-mid 30s in the north with mid-upper 30s in the south.

Saturday through Monday...

As we head into the weekend, the upper level flow pattern is
expected to flatten out as the western CONUS ridge begins to break
down.  A slight increase in geopotential heights across the east
should allow a bit of a warm up to commence across the region on
Saturday and into Sunday with afternoon highs warming into the upper
50s in the north with lower 60s across the south.

The latest global guidance continues to be in general agreement with
a surface cold front pushing toward the region on Sunday.  A wave of
low pressure looks to develop along this boundary and bring another
round of rain showers to the region Sunday and into Sunday night.
For now have kept decent PoP chances in for Sunday and Sunday night
with slightly drier conditions for Monday.  Highs Monday will be a
little cooler than Sunday with lower 50s int he north with mid-upper
50s across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1212 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.  Strato-cu
around FL025 continues to slowly sag to the south towards the Ohio
River.  It appears these clouds will remain just north of KSDF, but
can`t completely rule out some MVFR cigs for a time this
afternoon/evening.  Otherwise, generally light winds and partly
cloudy skies will persist at all sites tonight into early Wednesday
morning.  Clouds will begin to increase ahead of a disturbance
tomorrow, but all precip and cig/vsby restrictions will hold off
until after the valid TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 251714
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1214 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

At 500mb, a broad trough will continue across the central CONUS
through late Wednesday. Surface ridging will settle over Texas, with
an associated ridge axis extending northeast across southern
Illinois. Expect seasonably chilly temperatures today with generally
light winds out of the west. Highs will range from the upper 30s
across southern Indiana to the mid 40s near Tennessee. A broad
shield of low strato-cu now over Indiana and Illinois will settle
slightly southwards by mid-morning and may bring a period of
cloudiness along and north of the Ohio River through late morning.
Farther south, mostly clear skies are anticipated.

Tonight, surface ridging overhead will lead to mostly clear skies
and light winds. Mid-level clouds from a developing east coast storm
may spread back as far west as eastern Kentucky. Lows will fall into
the mid to upper 20s.

For Wednesday, a coastal storm will spread ice and snow inland of
the major urban areas along the east coast. An compact upper
disturbance will track southeast across Iowa and into Missouri by
noon Wednesday. This "clipper" will eventually track across the
Commonwealth Wednesday night. Expect increasing high and mid-level
clouds by mid-afternoon ahead of this feature. Some light rain may
move into Kentucky west of Interstate 65 by late afternoon
Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will rise into the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Light Wintry Mix To Snow Likely Wednesday Night and Early
Thanksgiving Morning...

Wednesday Night through Friday Night...

Early in the forecast period, the upper level pattern will be rather
amplified aloft with a fairly decent trough in the east with a
corresponding ridge out across the western US.  The trough in the
east is expected to amplify a bit and result in a pre-Thanksgiving
day east coast storm across the eastern US.  As this storm develops
and moves up the eastern seaboard on Wednesday, we`ll be watching a
fast moving upper level disturbance that will pass through the
region Wednesday night bringing light precipitation to the region.

Overall, the model guidance continues to show better convergence
with the track and timing of the system for Wednesday night.  This
system will enter the region from the west Wednesday evening and
depart the region during the day on Thursday.  As it approaches,
precipitation will streak eastward across southern Indiana and much
of central Kentucky.  Thermal profiles at the beginning of the event
suggest a relatively warm boundary layer that will result in
precipitation falling in the form of light rain.  As we head through
the night, the boundary layer will cool and we should see a change
from rain to snow from south to north as the night wears on.  There
is some potential for this system to produce a little more snow than
current forecast by the models.

Model cross sections do continue to show a tightening of the
thermal gradient aloft due to the jet core passing by. This could
result in some heavier banded precipitation falling along and north
of the actual surface track.  A second form of potential is that we
could get a little bit of dynamical cooling to get the column to
cool faster than the models currently prog.  As previous forecast
noted, surface wetbulbs really stay at or above 0C through much of
the event, so snowfall accumulations still look generally light and
will likely be limited to elevated and grassy locations.  Surface
temperatures are expected to drop to near or just below freezing
Thursday morning, thus some isolated-scattered slick spots may be
possible around the region. Given the busy travel period, this is a
system that will continue to be monitored closely.

For Thanksgiving day, we will probably see some lingering snow
flurries in the east during the morning, with clearing skies
developing from west to east during the afternoon.  It will be a
cold Thanksgiving with highs topping out in the upper 30s.  Clearing
skies and light winds will allow temperatures Thursday night to drop
into the lower-middle 20s.  Dry conditions are expected for Friday
with highs topping out in the lower-mid 40s in the north and mid to
upper 40s across the south. Lows Friday night look to cool into the
lower-mid 30s in the north with mid-upper 30s in the south.

Saturday through Monday...

As we head into the weekend, the upper level flow pattern is
expected to flatten out as the western CONUS ridge begins to break
down.  A slight increase in geopotential heights across the east
should allow a bit of a warm up to commence across the region on
Saturday and into Sunday with afternoon highs warming into the upper
50s in the north with lower 60s across the south.

The latest global guidance continues to be in general agreement with
a surface cold front pushing toward the region on Sunday.  A wave of
low pressure looks to develop along this boundary and bring another
round of rain showers to the region Sunday and into Sunday night.
For now have kept decent PoP chances in for Sunday and Sunday night
with slightly drier conditions for Monday.  Highs Monday will be a
little cooler than Sunday with lower 50s int he north with mid-upper
50s across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1212 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.  Strato-cu
around FL025 continues to slowly sag to the south towards the Ohio
River.  It appears these clouds will remain just north of KSDF, but
can`t completely rule out some MVFR cigs for a time this
afternoon/evening.  Otherwise, generally light winds and partly
cloudy skies will persist at all sites tonight into early Wednesday
morning.  Clouds will begin to increase ahead of a disturbance
tomorrow, but all precip and cig/vsby restrictions will hold off
until after the valid TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251120
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
620 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

At 500mb, a broad trough will continue across the central CONUS
through late Wednesday. Surface ridging will settle over Texas, with
an associated ridge axis extending northeast across southern
Illinois. Expect seasonably chilly temperatures today with generally
light winds out of the west. Highs will range from the upper 30s
across southern Indiana to the mid 40s near Tennessee. A broad
shield of low strato-cu now over Indiana and Illinois will settle
slightly southwards by mid-morning and may bring a period of
cloudiness along and north of the Ohio River through late morning.
Farther south, mostly clear skies are anticipated.

Tonight, surface ridging overhead will lead to mostly clear skies
and light winds. Mid-level clouds from a developing east coast storm
may spread back as far west as eastern Kentucky. Lows will fall into
the mid to upper 20s.

For Wednesday, a coastal storm will spread ice and snow inland of
the major urban areas along the east coast. An compact upper
disturbance will track southeast across Iowa and into Missouri by
noon Wednesday. This "clipper" will eventually track across the
Commonwealth Wednesday night. Expect increasing high and mid-level
clouds by mid-afternoon ahead of this feature. Some light rain may
move into Kentucky west of Interstate 65 by late afternoon
Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will rise into the lower 40s.


.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Light Wintry Mix To Snow Likely Wednesday Night and Early
Thanksgiving Morning...

Wednesday Night through Friday Night...

Early in the forecast period, the upper level pattern will be rather
amplified aloft with a fairly decent trough in the east with a
corresponding ridge out across the western US.  The trough in the
east is expected to amplify a bit and result in a pre-Thanksgiving
day east coast storm across the eastern US.  As this storm develops
and moves up the eastern seaboard on Wednesday, we`ll be watching a
fast moving upper level disturbance that will pass through the
region Wednesday night bringing light precipitation to the region.

Overall, the model guidance continues to show better convergence
with the track and timing of the system for Wednesday night.  This
system will enter the region from the west Wednesday evening and
depart the region during the day on Thursday.  As it approaches,
precipitation will streak eastward across southern Indiana and much
of central Kentucky.  Thermal profiles at the beginning of the event
suggest a relatively warm boundary layer that will result in
precipitation falling in the form of light rain.  As we head through
the night, the boundary layer will cool and we should see a change
from rain to snow from south to north as the night wears on.  There
is some potential for this system to produce a little more snow than
current forecast by the models.

Model cross sections do continue to show a tightening of the
thermal gradient aloft due to the jet core passing by. This could
result in some heavier banded precipitation falling along and north
of the actual surface track.  A second form of potential is that we
could get a little bit of dynamical cooling to get the column to
cool faster than the models currently prog.  As previous forecast
noted, surface wetbulbs really stay at or above 0C through much of
the event, so snowfall accumulations still look generally light and
will likely be limited to elevated and grassy locations.  Surface
temperatures are expected to drop to near or just below freezing
Thursday morning, thus some isolated-scattered slick spots may be
possible around the region. Given the busy travel period, this is a
system that will continue to be monitored closely.

For Thanksgiving day, we will probably see some lingering snow
flurries in the east during the morning, with clearing skies
developing from west to east during the afternoon.  It will be a
cold Thanksgiving with highs topping out in the upper 30s.  Clearing
skies and light winds will allow temperatures Thursday night to drop
into the lower-middle 20s.  Dry conditions are expected for Friday
with highs topping out in the lower-mid 40s in the north and mid to
upper 40s across the south. Lows Friday night look to cool into the
lower-mid 30s in the north with mid-upper 30s in the south.

Saturday through Monday...

As we head into the weekend, the upper level flow pattern is
expected to flatten out as the western CONUS ridge begins to break
down.  A slight increase in geopotential heights across the east
should allow a bit of a warm up to commence across the region on
Saturday and into Sunday with afternoon highs warming into the upper
50s in the north with lower 60s across the south.

The latest global guidance continues to be in general agreement with
a surface cold front pushing toward the region on Sunday.  A wave of
low pressure looks to develop along this boundary and bring another
round of rain showers to the region Sunday and into Sunday night.
For now have kept decent PoP chances in for Sunday and Sunday night
with slightly drier conditions for Monday.  Highs Monday will be a
little cooler than Sunday with lower 50s int he north with mid-upper
50s across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1110 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

The edge of a broad shield of MVFR strato-cu will sag south this
morning and may affect the SDF and LEX terminals in the 13 to 15z
time frame. However, for now, will keep all the terminal forecasts
VFR for today and tonight.

If low clouds do affect SDF and LEX, feel that clouds will scatter
out by mid-afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected this evening
and overnight.

Light west winds of around 3 to 6kt will continue this
morning...increasing to 7 to 10kt later this afternoon. Winds will
become nearly calm by late this evening and into early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251120
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
620 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

At 500mb, a broad trough will continue across the central CONUS
through late Wednesday. Surface ridging will settle over Texas, with
an associated ridge axis extending northeast across southern
Illinois. Expect seasonably chilly temperatures today with generally
light winds out of the west. Highs will range from the upper 30s
across southern Indiana to the mid 40s near Tennessee. A broad
shield of low strato-cu now over Indiana and Illinois will settle
slightly southwards by mid-morning and may bring a period of
cloudiness along and north of the Ohio River through late morning.
Farther south, mostly clear skies are anticipated.

Tonight, surface ridging overhead will lead to mostly clear skies
and light winds. Mid-level clouds from a developing east coast storm
may spread back as far west as eastern Kentucky. Lows will fall into
the mid to upper 20s.

For Wednesday, a coastal storm will spread ice and snow inland of
the major urban areas along the east coast. An compact upper
disturbance will track southeast across Iowa and into Missouri by
noon Wednesday. This "clipper" will eventually track across the
Commonwealth Wednesday night. Expect increasing high and mid-level
clouds by mid-afternoon ahead of this feature. Some light rain may
move into Kentucky west of Interstate 65 by late afternoon
Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will rise into the lower 40s.


.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Light Wintry Mix To Snow Likely Wednesday Night and Early
Thanksgiving Morning...

Wednesday Night through Friday Night...

Early in the forecast period, the upper level pattern will be rather
amplified aloft with a fairly decent trough in the east with a
corresponding ridge out across the western US.  The trough in the
east is expected to amplify a bit and result in a pre-Thanksgiving
day east coast storm across the eastern US.  As this storm develops
and moves up the eastern seaboard on Wednesday, we`ll be watching a
fast moving upper level disturbance that will pass through the
region Wednesday night bringing light precipitation to the region.

Overall, the model guidance continues to show better convergence
with the track and timing of the system for Wednesday night.  This
system will enter the region from the west Wednesday evening and
depart the region during the day on Thursday.  As it approaches,
precipitation will streak eastward across southern Indiana and much
of central Kentucky.  Thermal profiles at the beginning of the event
suggest a relatively warm boundary layer that will result in
precipitation falling in the form of light rain.  As we head through
the night, the boundary layer will cool and we should see a change
from rain to snow from south to north as the night wears on.  There
is some potential for this system to produce a little more snow than
current forecast by the models.

Model cross sections do continue to show a tightening of the
thermal gradient aloft due to the jet core passing by. This could
result in some heavier banded precipitation falling along and north
of the actual surface track.  A second form of potential is that we
could get a little bit of dynamical cooling to get the column to
cool faster than the models currently prog.  As previous forecast
noted, surface wetbulbs really stay at or above 0C through much of
the event, so snowfall accumulations still look generally light and
will likely be limited to elevated and grassy locations.  Surface
temperatures are expected to drop to near or just below freezing
Thursday morning, thus some isolated-scattered slick spots may be
possible around the region. Given the busy travel period, this is a
system that will continue to be monitored closely.

For Thanksgiving day, we will probably see some lingering snow
flurries in the east during the morning, with clearing skies
developing from west to east during the afternoon.  It will be a
cold Thanksgiving with highs topping out in the upper 30s.  Clearing
skies and light winds will allow temperatures Thursday night to drop
into the lower-middle 20s.  Dry conditions are expected for Friday
with highs topping out in the lower-mid 40s in the north and mid to
upper 40s across the south. Lows Friday night look to cool into the
lower-mid 30s in the north with mid-upper 30s in the south.

Saturday through Monday...

As we head into the weekend, the upper level flow pattern is
expected to flatten out as the western CONUS ridge begins to break
down.  A slight increase in geopotential heights across the east
should allow a bit of a warm up to commence across the region on
Saturday and into Sunday with afternoon highs warming into the upper
50s in the north with lower 60s across the south.

The latest global guidance continues to be in general agreement with
a surface cold front pushing toward the region on Sunday.  A wave of
low pressure looks to develop along this boundary and bring another
round of rain showers to the region Sunday and into Sunday night.
For now have kept decent PoP chances in for Sunday and Sunday night
with slightly drier conditions for Monday.  Highs Monday will be a
little cooler than Sunday with lower 50s int he north with mid-upper
50s across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1110 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

The edge of a broad shield of MVFR strato-cu will sag south this
morning and may affect the SDF and LEX terminals in the 13 to 15z
time frame. However, for now, will keep all the terminal forecasts
VFR for today and tonight.

If low clouds do affect SDF and LEX, feel that clouds will scatter
out by mid-afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected this evening
and overnight.

Light west winds of around 3 to 6kt will continue this
morning...increasing to 7 to 10kt later this afternoon. Winds will
become nearly calm by late this evening and into early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 250806
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

At 500mb, a broad trough will continue across the central CONUS
through late Wednesday. Surface ridging will settle over Texas, with
an associated ridge axis extending northeast across southern
Illinois. Expect seasonably chilly temperatures today with generally
light winds out of the west. Highs will range from the upper 30s
across southern Indiana to the mid 40s near Tennessee. A broad
shield of low strato-cu now over Indiana and Illinois will settle
slightly southwards by mid-morning and may bring a period of
cloudiness along and north of the Ohio River through late morning.
Farther south, mostly clear skies are anticipated.

Tonight, surface ridging overhead will lead to mostly clear skies
and light winds. Mid-level clouds from a developing east coast storm
may spread back as far west as eastern Kentucky. Lows will fall into
the mid to upper 20s.

For Wednesday, a coastal storm will spread ice and snow inland of
the major urban areas along the east coast. An compact upper
disturbance will track southeast across Iowa and into Missouri by
noon Wednesday. This "clipper" will eventually track across the
Commonwealth Wednesday night. Expect increasing high and mid-level
clouds by mid-afternoon ahead of this feature. Some light rain may
move into Kentucky west of Interstate 65 by late afternoon
Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will rise into the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Light Wintry Mix To Snow Likely Wednesday Night and Early
Thanksgiving Morning...

Wednesday Night through Friday Night...

Early in the forecast period, the upper level pattern will be rather
amplified aloft with a fairly decent trough in the east with a
corresponding ridge out across the western US.  The trough in the
east is expected to amplify a bit and result in a pre-Thanksgiving
day east coast storm across the eastern US.  As this storm develops
and moves up the eastern seaboard on Wednesday, we`ll be watching a
fast moving upper level disturbance that will pass through the
region Wednesday night bringing light precipitation to the region.

Overall, the model guidance continues to show better convergence
with the track and timing of the system for Wednesday night.  This
system will enter the region from the west Wednesday evening and
depart the region during the day on Thursday.  As it approaches,
precipitation will streak eastward across southern Indiana and much
of central Kentucky.  Thermal profiles at the beginning of the event
suggest a relatively warm boundary layer that will result in
precipitation falling in the form of light rain.  As we head through
the night, the boundary layer will cool and we should see a change
from rain to snow from south to north as the night wears on.  There
is some potential for this system to produce a little more snow than
current forecast by the models.

Model cross sections do continue to show a tightening of the
thermal gradient aloft due to the jet core passing by. This could
result in some heavier banded precipitation falling along and north
of the actual surface track.  A second form of potential is that we
could get a little bit of dynamical cooling to get the column to
cool faster than the models currently prog.  As previous forecast
noted, surface wetbulbs really stay at or above 0C through much of
the event, so snowfall accumulations still look generally light and
will likely be limited to elevated and grassy locations.  Surface
temperatures are expected to drop to near or just below freezing
Thursday morning, thus some isolated-scattered slick spots may be
possible around the region. Given the busy travel period, this is a
system that will continue to be monitored closely.

For Thanksgiving day, we will probably see some lingering snow
flurries in the east during the morning, with clearing skies
developing from west to east during the afternoon.  It will be a
cold Thanksgiving with highs topping out in the upper 30s.  Clearing
skies and light winds will allow temperatures Thursday night to drop
into the lower-middle 20s.  Dry conditions are expected for Friday
with highs topping out in the lower-mid 40s in the north and mid to
upper 40s across the south. Lows Friday night look to cool into the
lower-mid 30s in the north with mid-upper 30s in the south.

Saturday through Monday...

As we head into the weekend, the upper level flow pattern is
expected to flatten out as the western CONUS ridge begins to break
down.  A slight increase in geopotential heights across the east
should allow a bit of a warm up to commence across the region on
Saturday and into Sunday with afternoon highs warming into the upper
50s in the north with lower 60s across the south.

The latest global guidance continues to be in general agreement with
a surface cold front pushing toward the region on Sunday.  A wave of
low pressure looks to develop along this boundary and bring another
round of rain showers to the region Sunday and into Sunday night.
For now have kept decent PoP chances in for Sunday and Sunday night
with slightly drier conditions for Monday.  Highs Monday will be a
little cooler than Sunday with lower 50s int he north with mid-upper
50s across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 557 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

West winds will continue overnight at around 5 to 7kt, increasing to
7 to 10kt later this afternoon. Ceilings will stay scattered to
occasionally broken. However any temporary ceilings will stay above
the MVFR threshold. Winds will become nearly calm by late this
evening and into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 250806
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

At 500mb, a broad trough will continue across the central CONUS
through late Wednesday. Surface ridging will settle over Texas, with
an associated ridge axis extending northeast across southern
Illinois. Expect seasonably chilly temperatures today with generally
light winds out of the west. Highs will range from the upper 30s
across southern Indiana to the mid 40s near Tennessee. A broad
shield of low strato-cu now over Indiana and Illinois will settle
slightly southwards by mid-morning and may bring a period of
cloudiness along and north of the Ohio River through late morning.
Farther south, mostly clear skies are anticipated.

Tonight, surface ridging overhead will lead to mostly clear skies
and light winds. Mid-level clouds from a developing east coast storm
may spread back as far west as eastern Kentucky. Lows will fall into
the mid to upper 20s.

For Wednesday, a coastal storm will spread ice and snow inland of
the major urban areas along the east coast. An compact upper
disturbance will track southeast across Iowa and into Missouri by
noon Wednesday. This "clipper" will eventually track across the
Commonwealth Wednesday night. Expect increasing high and mid-level
clouds by mid-afternoon ahead of this feature. Some light rain may
move into Kentucky west of Interstate 65 by late afternoon
Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will rise into the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Light Wintry Mix To Snow Likely Wednesday Night and Early
Thanksgiving Morning...

Wednesday Night through Friday Night...

Early in the forecast period, the upper level pattern will be rather
amplified aloft with a fairly decent trough in the east with a
corresponding ridge out across the western US.  The trough in the
east is expected to amplify a bit and result in a pre-Thanksgiving
day east coast storm across the eastern US.  As this storm develops
and moves up the eastern seaboard on Wednesday, we`ll be watching a
fast moving upper level disturbance that will pass through the
region Wednesday night bringing light precipitation to the region.

Overall, the model guidance continues to show better convergence
with the track and timing of the system for Wednesday night.  This
system will enter the region from the west Wednesday evening and
depart the region during the day on Thursday.  As it approaches,
precipitation will streak eastward across southern Indiana and much
of central Kentucky.  Thermal profiles at the beginning of the event
suggest a relatively warm boundary layer that will result in
precipitation falling in the form of light rain.  As we head through
the night, the boundary layer will cool and we should see a change
from rain to snow from south to north as the night wears on.  There
is some potential for this system to produce a little more snow than
current forecast by the models.

Model cross sections do continue to show a tightening of the
thermal gradient aloft due to the jet core passing by. This could
result in some heavier banded precipitation falling along and north
of the actual surface track.  A second form of potential is that we
could get a little bit of dynamical cooling to get the column to
cool faster than the models currently prog.  As previous forecast
noted, surface wetbulbs really stay at or above 0C through much of
the event, so snowfall accumulations still look generally light and
will likely be limited to elevated and grassy locations.  Surface
temperatures are expected to drop to near or just below freezing
Thursday morning, thus some isolated-scattered slick spots may be
possible around the region. Given the busy travel period, this is a
system that will continue to be monitored closely.

For Thanksgiving day, we will probably see some lingering snow
flurries in the east during the morning, with clearing skies
developing from west to east during the afternoon.  It will be a
cold Thanksgiving with highs topping out in the upper 30s.  Clearing
skies and light winds will allow temperatures Thursday night to drop
into the lower-middle 20s.  Dry conditions are expected for Friday
with highs topping out in the lower-mid 40s in the north and mid to
upper 40s across the south. Lows Friday night look to cool into the
lower-mid 30s in the north with mid-upper 30s in the south.

Saturday through Monday...

As we head into the weekend, the upper level flow pattern is
expected to flatten out as the western CONUS ridge begins to break
down.  A slight increase in geopotential heights across the east
should allow a bit of a warm up to commence across the region on
Saturday and into Sunday with afternoon highs warming into the upper
50s in the north with lower 60s across the south.

The latest global guidance continues to be in general agreement with
a surface cold front pushing toward the region on Sunday.  A wave of
low pressure looks to develop along this boundary and bring another
round of rain showers to the region Sunday and into Sunday night.
For now have kept decent PoP chances in for Sunday and Sunday night
with slightly drier conditions for Monday.  Highs Monday will be a
little cooler than Sunday with lower 50s int he north with mid-upper
50s across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 557 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

West winds will continue overnight at around 5 to 7kt, increasing to
7 to 10kt later this afternoon. Ceilings will stay scattered to
occasionally broken. However any temporary ceilings will stay above
the MVFR threshold. Winds will become nearly calm by late this
evening and into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250511
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1211 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

High pressure ridge axis over the Deep South will extend into the
Appalachians tonight, then across our region Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Aloft, broad troughing will continue to our west to Tuesday
night. By early Wednesday a vortmax crossing the Deep South looks
like it will spawn an east coast storm. This storm may be large
enough to allow for some mid/high clouds to reach into our Lake
Cumberland counties by daybreak Wednesday, but not expecting
precipitation at this point.

Temperatures have dropped into the 40s for all but our eastern and
southern sites, but they should be there soon. Winds already are
starting to relax over the region as the pressure gradient begins to
loosen. Will go ahead and drop the advisory across the region, as we
no longer are getting gusts to 40 mph.

Lows will get into the 30s tonight. Tuesday should be a nice day,
save for high temperatures below normal, generally in the 40s. With
lighter winds Tuesday night, readings should dip into the 20s,
though cloud cover may bring them back up across the southeast by
daybreak Wednesday.


.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

...A light wintry mix possible for Wednesday/Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature rather amplified flow aloft, with a western trough/eastern
ridge regime.  This flow will transition to a more zonal look
towards the end of the long term period.

The main focus of the long term period continues to be on a Clipper
system progged to affect the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Wednesday
night.  Guidance has come into better agreement regarding the
track/timing of this system, though some subtle differences do
remain.  In these Clipper systems, the maximum in precipitation
tends to occur just to the north of the surface low, typically in a
narrow swath.  A left-exit region of a strong upper-level jet will
help induce a tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which should
help to develop a band of more moderate precipitation within a
broader precip shield.  Looking at model forecast soundings, it
looks like the precipitation will likely start as mostly rain across
the region.  The timing of this system will be key, as a slower
arrival would put it more into the Wed. night timeframe and thus the
surface would be a bit cooler.  As it looks now, this appears to
start as a rain event, with perhaps some snow mixing in on the
backside and/or in the more moderate precipitation band where
dynamical cooling may be just enough to get some snow to the
ground.  Either way, with surface wet bulbs staying above 0C through
the bulk of the event, don`t expect too much in the way of impacts
except maybe some light grassy accumulations or perhaps an isolated
slick spot.  Given the busy travel period, this is a system that
will continue to be monitored closely as a slower arrival/southward
shift could mean a bit more snow potential.

For the remainder of the extended, the flow flattens out toward the
end of the week as the western ridge breaks down.  This will allow
for a moderating trend, with highs this weekend pushing into the
50s.  A cold front will approach on Sunday, which will lead to some
rain developing across the region.  There had been concern that this
front could undercut some warmer air aloft and this could turn into
an overrunning event, but that solution now appears unlikely as the
guidance has trended toward a warmer solution.  Looks to be a liquid
event as we sit to the south of the arctic front.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 557 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

West winds will continue overnight at around 5 to 7kt, increasing to
7 to 10kt later this afternoon. Ceilings will stay scattered to
occasionally broken. However any temporary ceilings will stay above
the MVFR threshold. Winds will become nearly calm by late this
evening and into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250511
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1211 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

High pressure ridge axis over the Deep South will extend into the
Appalachians tonight, then across our region Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Aloft, broad troughing will continue to our west to Tuesday
night. By early Wednesday a vortmax crossing the Deep South looks
like it will spawn an east coast storm. This storm may be large
enough to allow for some mid/high clouds to reach into our Lake
Cumberland counties by daybreak Wednesday, but not expecting
precipitation at this point.

Temperatures have dropped into the 40s for all but our eastern and
southern sites, but they should be there soon. Winds already are
starting to relax over the region as the pressure gradient begins to
loosen. Will go ahead and drop the advisory across the region, as we
no longer are getting gusts to 40 mph.

Lows will get into the 30s tonight. Tuesday should be a nice day,
save for high temperatures below normal, generally in the 40s. With
lighter winds Tuesday night, readings should dip into the 20s,
though cloud cover may bring them back up across the southeast by
daybreak Wednesday.


.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

...A light wintry mix possible for Wednesday/Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature rather amplified flow aloft, with a western trough/eastern
ridge regime.  This flow will transition to a more zonal look
towards the end of the long term period.

The main focus of the long term period continues to be on a Clipper
system progged to affect the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Wednesday
night.  Guidance has come into better agreement regarding the
track/timing of this system, though some subtle differences do
remain.  In these Clipper systems, the maximum in precipitation
tends to occur just to the north of the surface low, typically in a
narrow swath.  A left-exit region of a strong upper-level jet will
help induce a tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which should
help to develop a band of more moderate precipitation within a
broader precip shield.  Looking at model forecast soundings, it
looks like the precipitation will likely start as mostly rain across
the region.  The timing of this system will be key, as a slower
arrival would put it more into the Wed. night timeframe and thus the
surface would be a bit cooler.  As it looks now, this appears to
start as a rain event, with perhaps some snow mixing in on the
backside and/or in the more moderate precipitation band where
dynamical cooling may be just enough to get some snow to the
ground.  Either way, with surface wet bulbs staying above 0C through
the bulk of the event, don`t expect too much in the way of impacts
except maybe some light grassy accumulations or perhaps an isolated
slick spot.  Given the busy travel period, this is a system that
will continue to be monitored closely as a slower arrival/southward
shift could mean a bit more snow potential.

For the remainder of the extended, the flow flattens out toward the
end of the week as the western ridge breaks down.  This will allow
for a moderating trend, with highs this weekend pushing into the
50s.  A cold front will approach on Sunday, which will lead to some
rain developing across the region.  There had been concern that this
front could undercut some warmer air aloft and this could turn into
an overrunning event, but that solution now appears unlikely as the
guidance has trended toward a warmer solution.  Looks to be a liquid
event as we sit to the south of the arctic front.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 557 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

West winds will continue overnight at around 5 to 7kt, increasing to
7 to 10kt later this afternoon. Ceilings will stay scattered to
occasionally broken. However any temporary ceilings will stay above
the MVFR threshold. Winds will become nearly calm by late this
evening and into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 242257
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
557 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

High pressure ridge axis over the Deep South will extend into the
Appalachians tonight, then across our region Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Aloft, broad troughing will continue to our west to Tuesday
night. By early Wednesday a vortmax crossing the Deep South looks
like it will spawn an east coast storm. This storm may be large
enough to allow for some mid/high clouds to reach into our Lake
Cumberland counties by daybreak Wednesday, but not expecting
precipitation at this point.

Temperatures have dropped into the 40s for all but our eastern and
southern sites, but they should be there soon. Winds already are
starting to relax over the region as the pressure gradient begins to
loosen. Will go ahead and drop the advisory across the region, as we
no longer are getting gusts to 40 mph.

Lows will get into the 30s tonight. Tuesday should be a nice day,
save for high temperatures below normal, generally in the 40s. With
lighter winds Tuesday night, readings should dip into the 20s,
though cloud cover may bring them back up across the southeast by
daybreak Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

...A light wintry mix possible for Wednesday/Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature rather amplified flow aloft, with a western trough/eastern
ridge regime.  This flow will transition to a more zonal look
towards the end of the long term period.

The main focus of the long term period continues to be on a Clipper
system progged to affect the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Wednesday
night.  Guidance has come into better agreement regarding the
track/timing of this system, though some subtle differences do
remain.  In these Clipper systems, the maximum in precipitation
tends to occur just to the north of the surface low, typically in a
narrow swath.  A left-exit region of a strong upper-level jet will
help induce a tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which should
help to develop a band of more moderate precipitation within a
broader precip shield.  Looking at model forecast soundings, it
looks like the precipitation will likely start as mostly rain across
the region.  The timing of this system will be key, as a slower
arrival would put it more into the Wed. night timeframe and thus the
surface would be a bit cooler.  As it looks now, this appears to
start as a rain event, with perhaps some snow mixing in on the
backside and/or in the more moderate precipitation band where
dynamical cooling may be just enough to get some snow to the
ground.  Either way, with surface wet bulbs staying above 0C through
the bulk of the event, don`t expect too much in the way of impacts
except maybe some light grassy accumulations or perhaps an isolated
slick spot.  Given the busy travel period, this is a system that
will continue to be monitored closely as a slower arrival/southward
shift could mean a bit more snow potential.

For the remainder of the extended, the flow flattens out toward the
end of the week as the western ridge breaks down.  This will allow
for a moderating trend, with highs this weekend pushing into the
50s.  A cold front will approach on Sunday, which will lead to some
rain developing across the region.  There had been concern that this
front could undercut some warmer air aloft and this could turn into
an overrunning event, but that solution now appears unlikely as the
guidance has trended toward a warmer solution.  Looks to be a liquid
event as we sit to the south of the arctic front.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 557 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

High pressure building from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley
will provide VFR flying conditions and much lighter winds than what
we saw today and last night.  There is a bit of concern for a band
of high-end MVFR clouds possibly moving across SDF around sunrise,
but chances are small enough to omit from the TAFs for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 242014
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

High pressure ridge axis over the Deep South will extend into the
Appalachians tonight, then across our region Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Aloft, broad troughing will continue to our west to Tuesday
night. By early Wednesday a vortmax crossing the Deep South looks
like it will spawn an east coast storm. This storm may be large
enough to allow for some mid/high clouds to reach into our Lake
Cumberland counties by daybreak Wednesday, but not expecting
precipitation at this point.

Temperatures have dropped into the 40s for all but our eastern and
southern sites, but they should be there soon. Winds already are
starting to relax over the region as the pressure gradient begins to
loosen. Will go ahead and drop the advisory across the region, as we
no longer are getting gusts to 40 mph.

Lows will get into the 30s tonight. Tuesday should be a nice day,
save for high temperatures below normal, generally in the 40s. With
lighter winds Tuesday night, readings should dip into the 20s,
though cloud cover may bring them back up across the southeast by
daybreak Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

...A light wintry mix possible for Wednesday/Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature rather amplified flow aloft, with a western trough/eastern
ridge regime.  This flow will transition to a more zonal look
towards the end of the long term period.

The main focus of the long term period continues to be on a Clipper
system progged to affect the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Wednesday
night.  Guidance has come into better agreement regarding the
track/timing of this system, though some subtle differences do
remain.  In these Clipper systems, the maximum in precipitation
tends to occur just to the north of the surface low, typically in a
narrow swath.  A left-exit region of a strong upper-level jet will
help induce a tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which should
help to develop a band of more moderate precipitation within a
broader precip shield.  Looking at model forecast soundings, it
looks like the precipitation will likely start as mostly rain across
the region.  The timing of this system will be key, as a slower
arrival would put it more into the Wed. night timeframe and thus the
surface would be a bit cooler.  As it looks now, this appears to
start as a rain event, with perhaps some snow mixing in on the
backside and/or in the more moderate precipitation band where
dynamical cooling may be just enough to get some snow to the
ground.  Either way, with surface wet bulbs staying above 0C through
the bulk of the event, don`t expect too much in the way of impacts
except maybe some light grassy accumulations or perhaps an isolated
slick spot.  Given the busy travel period, this is a system that
will continue to be monitored closely as a slower arrival/southward
shift could mean a bit more snow potential.

For the remainder of the extended, the flow flattens out toward the
end of the week as the western ridge breaks down.  This will allow
for a moderating trend, with highs this weekend pushing into the
50s.  A cold front will approach on Sunday, which will lead to some
rain developing across the region.  There had been concern that this
front could undercut some warmer air aloft and this could turn into
an overrunning event, but that solution now appears unlikely as the
guidance has trended toward a warmer solution.  Looks to be a liquid
event as we sit to the south of the arctic front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1205 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

Pressure gradient should start relaxing some this afternoon as a
cold front is now east of all the terminals. Still should see some
gusts of 30-40 knots over the next hour or two before they drop off.
Cigs in the wake of the cold front are fluctuating between MVFR and
VFR, but likewise should start improving by late afternoon. West
winds will continue through the period as high pressure builds in
from the Southern Plains.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 242014
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

High pressure ridge axis over the Deep South will extend into the
Appalachians tonight, then across our region Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Aloft, broad troughing will continue to our west to Tuesday
night. By early Wednesday a vortmax crossing the Deep South looks
like it will spawn an east coast storm. This storm may be large
enough to allow for some mid/high clouds to reach into our Lake
Cumberland counties by daybreak Wednesday, but not expecting
precipitation at this point.

Temperatures have dropped into the 40s for all but our eastern and
southern sites, but they should be there soon. Winds already are
starting to relax over the region as the pressure gradient begins to
loosen. Will go ahead and drop the advisory across the region, as we
no longer are getting gusts to 40 mph.

Lows will get into the 30s tonight. Tuesday should be a nice day,
save for high temperatures below normal, generally in the 40s. With
lighter winds Tuesday night, readings should dip into the 20s,
though cloud cover may bring them back up across the southeast by
daybreak Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

...A light wintry mix possible for Wednesday/Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature rather amplified flow aloft, with a western trough/eastern
ridge regime.  This flow will transition to a more zonal look
towards the end of the long term period.

The main focus of the long term period continues to be on a Clipper
system progged to affect the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Wednesday
night.  Guidance has come into better agreement regarding the
track/timing of this system, though some subtle differences do
remain.  In these Clipper systems, the maximum in precipitation
tends to occur just to the north of the surface low, typically in a
narrow swath.  A left-exit region of a strong upper-level jet will
help induce a tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which should
help to develop a band of more moderate precipitation within a
broader precip shield.  Looking at model forecast soundings, it
looks like the precipitation will likely start as mostly rain across
the region.  The timing of this system will be key, as a slower
arrival would put it more into the Wed. night timeframe and thus the
surface would be a bit cooler.  As it looks now, this appears to
start as a rain event, with perhaps some snow mixing in on the
backside and/or in the more moderate precipitation band where
dynamical cooling may be just enough to get some snow to the
ground.  Either way, with surface wet bulbs staying above 0C through
the bulk of the event, don`t expect too much in the way of impacts
except maybe some light grassy accumulations or perhaps an isolated
slick spot.  Given the busy travel period, this is a system that
will continue to be monitored closely as a slower arrival/southward
shift could mean a bit more snow potential.

For the remainder of the extended, the flow flattens out toward the
end of the week as the western ridge breaks down.  This will allow
for a moderating trend, with highs this weekend pushing into the
50s.  A cold front will approach on Sunday, which will lead to some
rain developing across the region.  There had been concern that this
front could undercut some warmer air aloft and this could turn into
an overrunning event, but that solution now appears unlikely as the
guidance has trended toward a warmer solution.  Looks to be a liquid
event as we sit to the south of the arctic front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1205 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

Pressure gradient should start relaxing some this afternoon as a
cold front is now east of all the terminals. Still should see some
gusts of 30-40 knots over the next hour or two before they drop off.
Cigs in the wake of the cold front are fluctuating between MVFR and
VFR, but likewise should start improving by late afternoon. West
winds will continue through the period as high pressure builds in
from the Southern Plains.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RJS







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