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000
FXUS63 KLMK 011040
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

A slow-moving cool front to our northwest will bring a noticeable
increase in southwesterly winds today, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph
likely this afternoon. First off though we may see some isolated
low-topped showers this morning, with convergence along a weak
low-level jet early this morning already initiating some in central
IN. HRRR indicates better coverage than what I`ll have in my
forecast, as current guidance coverage already is too high.

Cloud cover from the moist low levels and as additional moisture
streams into the region today in a deep southwesterly flow should
keep high temperatures from getting too far above normal, with
readings likely topping out in the mid to upper 80s. The focus for
storms this evening will be to our west and northwest, closer to the
approaching front. These storms may be able to get into our southern
Indiana counties around or after midnight.

There still are some uncertainties about how convective development
will occur from early to late Tuesday, as a lot will depend on the
evolution of these storms moving into our region. Should those
storms get in here more toward daybreak, then convective debris
could be enough to prevent furthern development during the day
Tuesday, despite relatively high precipitable waters. Should those
storms die off overnight and leave boundaries behind, Tuesday could
become more active with heating. Will leave in likely pops for the
day Tuesday, as would lean more towards the latter solution that
we`ll see a few breaks in the clouds to generate more storms.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 01 2014

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

Surface high pressure will slide over the Ohio Valley behind the
nearly washed out front to our south on Tuesday night. An isolated
shower or storm could linger into the evening hours across the south
or east CWA, otherwise expect a dry and slightly cooler night. Lows
should drop into the upper 60s and around 70. Isolated or widely
scattered diurnally driven showers/storms are expected to be
possible across southern KY on Wednesday. Most areas will stay dry
with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 85 to 88 degree range.

Wednesday Night - Friday...

The southern CONUS upper ridge will build over the area to end the
week, however this will not be enough to suppress diurnally
driven convection each afternoon and early evening. Will continue
mention of isolated to widely scattered coverage on Thursday, with
better coverage on Friday more solidly in the scattered range. Along
with this ridge, the heat and humidity will return with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 each day. With dew points in the low 70s each
day, conditions will feel quite muggy. The environment should become
pretty unstable each afternoon/evening, however the lack of deep
layer flow will keep any convection pulse in nature. Lows by
Thursday night will be back in the low 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday Night...

The upper ridge will be suppressed southward to start the weekend, as
a wave skirts along the eastern US/Canada border. This will drag a
stronger cold front toward our moist and unstable airmass, keeping
scattered storms in play on Friday night. Saturday should bring the
best chance of storms for the whole forecast period as the front
tries to slide through. Have gone with 40-50% coverage. With
slightly better deep layer flow over the area, the threat for a few
stronger storms seems reasonable. Biggest concern would be gusty
winds, along with cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy
rainfall. A few storms could linger in our south and east Saturday
evening.

Expect more mild lows on Friday night with the mercury only dropping
to the low 70s. Highs on Saturday will be dependent on convection
and where the frontal boundary resides, but it looks like temps will
max out around 80 north, to the mid or upper 80s south. Lows
Saturday night will be cooler on the north side of the boundary.
Look for readings in the 60s.

Sunday...

Surface high pressure takes back over on Sunday, bringing dry and
cooler conditions to start the new work week. Look for highs in the
upper 70s and low 80s, with lows Sunday night expected to be in the
upper 50s and low 60s!

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Have a few light rain showers forming north of a KSDF/KLEX line this
hour, but even should the rain make the terminals it should be light
enough not to reduce visibility much. The bigger factor now is
ceilings, with them hovering between MVFR and IFR at those two
sites, and KBWG may see it soon too. These clouds will lift by mid
morning. An isolated storm still cannot be ruled out later this
afternoon, but again coverage too limited to put in TAFs at this
time. Should see more storms coming in early Tuesday, first at KSDF
as a cool front approaches the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 011040
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

A slow-moving cool front to our northwest will bring a noticeable
increase in southwesterly winds today, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph
likely this afternoon. First off though we may see some isolated
low-topped showers this morning, with convergence along a weak
low-level jet early this morning already initiating some in central
IN. HRRR indicates better coverage than what I`ll have in my
forecast, as current guidance coverage already is too high.

Cloud cover from the moist low levels and as additional moisture
streams into the region today in a deep southwesterly flow should
keep high temperatures from getting too far above normal, with
readings likely topping out in the mid to upper 80s. The focus for
storms this evening will be to our west and northwest, closer to the
approaching front. These storms may be able to get into our southern
Indiana counties around or after midnight.

There still are some uncertainties about how convective development
will occur from early to late Tuesday, as a lot will depend on the
evolution of these storms moving into our region. Should those
storms get in here more toward daybreak, then convective debris
could be enough to prevent furthern development during the day
Tuesday, despite relatively high precipitable waters. Should those
storms die off overnight and leave boundaries behind, Tuesday could
become more active with heating. Will leave in likely pops for the
day Tuesday, as would lean more towards the latter solution that
we`ll see a few breaks in the clouds to generate more storms.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 01 2014

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

Surface high pressure will slide over the Ohio Valley behind the
nearly washed out front to our south on Tuesday night. An isolated
shower or storm could linger into the evening hours across the south
or east CWA, otherwise expect a dry and slightly cooler night. Lows
should drop into the upper 60s and around 70. Isolated or widely
scattered diurnally driven showers/storms are expected to be
possible across southern KY on Wednesday. Most areas will stay dry
with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 85 to 88 degree range.

Wednesday Night - Friday...

The southern CONUS upper ridge will build over the area to end the
week, however this will not be enough to suppress diurnally
driven convection each afternoon and early evening. Will continue
mention of isolated to widely scattered coverage on Thursday, with
better coverage on Friday more solidly in the scattered range. Along
with this ridge, the heat and humidity will return with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 each day. With dew points in the low 70s each
day, conditions will feel quite muggy. The environment should become
pretty unstable each afternoon/evening, however the lack of deep
layer flow will keep any convection pulse in nature. Lows by
Thursday night will be back in the low 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday Night...

The upper ridge will be suppressed southward to start the weekend, as
a wave skirts along the eastern US/Canada border. This will drag a
stronger cold front toward our moist and unstable airmass, keeping
scattered storms in play on Friday night. Saturday should bring the
best chance of storms for the whole forecast period as the front
tries to slide through. Have gone with 40-50% coverage. With
slightly better deep layer flow over the area, the threat for a few
stronger storms seems reasonable. Biggest concern would be gusty
winds, along with cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy
rainfall. A few storms could linger in our south and east Saturday
evening.

Expect more mild lows on Friday night with the mercury only dropping
to the low 70s. Highs on Saturday will be dependent on convection
and where the frontal boundary resides, but it looks like temps will
max out around 80 north, to the mid or upper 80s south. Lows
Saturday night will be cooler on the north side of the boundary.
Look for readings in the 60s.

Sunday...

Surface high pressure takes back over on Sunday, bringing dry and
cooler conditions to start the new work week. Look for highs in the
upper 70s and low 80s, with lows Sunday night expected to be in the
upper 50s and low 60s!

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Have a few light rain showers forming north of a KSDF/KLEX line this
hour, but even should the rain make the terminals it should be light
enough not to reduce visibility much. The bigger factor now is
ceilings, with them hovering between MVFR and IFR at those two
sites, and KBWG may see it soon too. These clouds will lift by mid
morning. An isolated storm still cannot be ruled out later this
afternoon, but again coverage too limited to put in TAFs at this
time. Should see more storms coming in early Tuesday, first at KSDF
as a cool front approaches the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 010715
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

A slow-moving cool front to our northwest will bring a noticeable
increase in southwesterly winds today, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph
likely this afternoon. First off though we may see some isolated
low-topped showers this morning, with convergence along a weak
low-level jet early this morning already initiating some in central
IN. HRRR indicates better coverage than what I`ll have in my
forecast, as current guidance coverage already is too high.

Cloud cover from the moist low levels and as additional moisture
streams into the region today in a deep southwesterly flow should
keep high temperatures from getting too far above normal, with
readings likely topping out in the mid to upper 80s. The focus for
storms this evening will be to our west and northwest, closer to the
approaching front. These storms may be able to get into our southern
Indiana counties around or after midnight.

There still are some uncertainties about how convective development
will occur from early to late Tuesday, as a lot will depend on the
evolution of these storms moving into our region. Should those
storms get in here more toward daybreak, then convective debris
could be enough to prevent furthern development during the day
Tuesday, despite relatively high precipitable waters. Should those
storms die off overnight and leave boundaries behind, Tuesday could
become more active with heating. Will leave in likely pops for the
day Tuesday, as would lean more towards the latter solution that
we`ll see a few breaks in the clouds to generate more storms.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 01 2014

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

Surface high pressure will slide over the Ohio Valley behind the
nearly washed out front to our south on Tuesday night. An isolated
shower or storm could linger into the evening hours across the south
or east CWA, otherwise expect a dry and slightly cooler night. Lows
should drop into the upper 60s and around 70. Isolated or widely
scattered diurnally driven showers/storms are expected to be
possible across southern KY on Wednesday. Most areas will stay dry
with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 85 to 88 degree range.

Wednesday Night - Friday...

The southern CONUS upper ridge will build over the area to end the
week, however this will not be enough to suppress diurnally
driven convection each afternoon and early evening. Will continue
mention of isolated to widely scattered coverage on Thursday, with
better coverage on Friday more solidly in the scattered range. Along
with this ridge, the heat and humidity will return with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 each day. With dew points in the low 70s each
day, conditions will feel quite muggy. The environment should become
pretty unstable each afternoon/evening, however the lack of deep
layer flow will keep any convection pulse in nature. Lows by
Thursday night will be back in the low 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday Night...

The upper ridge will be suppressed southward to start the weekend, as
a wave skirts along the eastern US/Canada border. This will drag a
stronger cold front toward our moist and unstable airmass, keeping
scattered storms in play on Friday night. Saturday should bring the
best chance of storms for the whole forecast period as the front
tries to slide through. Have gone with 40-50% coverage. With
slightly better deep layer flow over the area, the threat for a few
stronger storms seems reasonable. Biggest concern would be gusty
winds, along with cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy
rainfall. A few storms could linger in our south and east Saturday
evening.

Expect more mild lows on Friday night with the mercury only dropping
to the low 70s. Highs on Saturday will be dependent on convection
and where the frontal boundary resides, but it looks like temps will
max out around 80 north, to the mid or upper 80s south. Lows
Saturday night will be cooler on the north side of the boundary.
Look for readings in the 60s.

Sunday...

Surface high pressure takes back over on Sunday, bringing dry and
cooler conditions to start the new work week. Look for highs in the
upper 70s and low 80s, with lows Sunday night expected to be in the
upper 50s and low 60s!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Have some mid-level drying out their now, helping to rid the region
of showers/storms for now, but not necessarily lower-level issues.
Each of the terminals may see some periods of MVFR clouds through
daybreak. Then we will see winds pick up from the southwest, ahead
of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Gusts of 20-25 knots
are possible through the day. An isolated pop-up storm is possible
in the afternoon, but not confident enough to put in the forecast at
this time. The better chance for rain will come Tuesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010715
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

A slow-moving cool front to our northwest will bring a noticeable
increase in southwesterly winds today, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph
likely this afternoon. First off though we may see some isolated
low-topped showers this morning, with convergence along a weak
low-level jet early this morning already initiating some in central
IN. HRRR indicates better coverage than what I`ll have in my
forecast, as current guidance coverage already is too high.

Cloud cover from the moist low levels and as additional moisture
streams into the region today in a deep southwesterly flow should
keep high temperatures from getting too far above normal, with
readings likely topping out in the mid to upper 80s. The focus for
storms this evening will be to our west and northwest, closer to the
approaching front. These storms may be able to get into our southern
Indiana counties around or after midnight.

There still are some uncertainties about how convective development
will occur from early to late Tuesday, as a lot will depend on the
evolution of these storms moving into our region. Should those
storms get in here more toward daybreak, then convective debris
could be enough to prevent furthern development during the day
Tuesday, despite relatively high precipitable waters. Should those
storms die off overnight and leave boundaries behind, Tuesday could
become more active with heating. Will leave in likely pops for the
day Tuesday, as would lean more towards the latter solution that
we`ll see a few breaks in the clouds to generate more storms.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 01 2014

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

Surface high pressure will slide over the Ohio Valley behind the
nearly washed out front to our south on Tuesday night. An isolated
shower or storm could linger into the evening hours across the south
or east CWA, otherwise expect a dry and slightly cooler night. Lows
should drop into the upper 60s and around 70. Isolated or widely
scattered diurnally driven showers/storms are expected to be
possible across southern KY on Wednesday. Most areas will stay dry
with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 85 to 88 degree range.

Wednesday Night - Friday...

The southern CONUS upper ridge will build over the area to end the
week, however this will not be enough to suppress diurnally
driven convection each afternoon and early evening. Will continue
mention of isolated to widely scattered coverage on Thursday, with
better coverage on Friday more solidly in the scattered range. Along
with this ridge, the heat and humidity will return with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 each day. With dew points in the low 70s each
day, conditions will feel quite muggy. The environment should become
pretty unstable each afternoon/evening, however the lack of deep
layer flow will keep any convection pulse in nature. Lows by
Thursday night will be back in the low 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday Night...

The upper ridge will be suppressed southward to start the weekend, as
a wave skirts along the eastern US/Canada border. This will drag a
stronger cold front toward our moist and unstable airmass, keeping
scattered storms in play on Friday night. Saturday should bring the
best chance of storms for the whole forecast period as the front
tries to slide through. Have gone with 40-50% coverage. With
slightly better deep layer flow over the area, the threat for a few
stronger storms seems reasonable. Biggest concern would be gusty
winds, along with cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy
rainfall. A few storms could linger in our south and east Saturday
evening.

Expect more mild lows on Friday night with the mercury only dropping
to the low 70s. Highs on Saturday will be dependent on convection
and where the frontal boundary resides, but it looks like temps will
max out around 80 north, to the mid or upper 80s south. Lows
Saturday night will be cooler on the north side of the boundary.
Look for readings in the 60s.

Sunday...

Surface high pressure takes back over on Sunday, bringing dry and
cooler conditions to start the new work week. Look for highs in the
upper 70s and low 80s, with lows Sunday night expected to be in the
upper 50s and low 60s!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Have some mid-level drying out their now, helping to rid the region
of showers/storms for now, but not necessarily lower-level issues.
Each of the terminals may see some periods of MVFR clouds through
daybreak. Then we will see winds pick up from the southwest, ahead
of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Gusts of 20-25 knots
are possible through the day. An isolated pop-up storm is possible
in the afternoon, but not confident enough to put in the forecast at
this time. The better chance for rain will come Tuesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 010524
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
124 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Scattered showers and storms continue to weaken across the forecast
area.  We still have one small batch of showers just east of
Bardstown up toward Frankfort.  This activity will continue to
weaken and move east over the next few hours.  Thus, will continue
some low chance PoPs across the Bluegrass region for the next few
hours.

For the overnight period, skies will initially clear out.  However,
with the very moist low-level environment and light winds, expect
low stratus to build back down with skies going back to mostly
cloudy.  Patchy fog looks like a good bet across the region.
However, the surface winds may remain elevated enough to keep the
lower atmosphere mixed to prevent widespread dense fog.  On the
other hand, if we decouple completely and do not have the low-level
stratus build down, we could see a bit more fog than what is
currently forecast.  For now have gone with mostly cloudy skies
overnight with patchy fog.  Overnight temperatures will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  Will highlight the fog potential in
the HWO product and continue to monitor conditions closely this
evening and into the overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Lift associated with the right rear entrance of an exiting jet and
tropical moisture will slowly move east this evening. Areas of light
rain showers will diminish later this afternoon or evening.

Shallow moisture will remain behind though and clouds will have a
hard time clearing this evening and overnight. With south winds
around 5 mph expected overnight, our lows early Labor Day will range
from 70 to the lower 70s.

A strong jet now entering the central plains will spawn low pressure
across Minnesota late this evening. This cyclone will deepen later
Monday as it moves well north of the Great Lakes. It will provide a
cold front that will move southeast into central Missouri and
Illinois by early Tuesday.

Moist air and surface convergence ahead of this boundary will lead
to widespread convection to our northwest late Monday. Some of these
storms, which may be in a weakening phase, may move into southern
Indiana towards the Ohio River during the morning hours.

So...expect partial clearing Monday with quite warm and humid
conditions during the afternoon hours. An isolated thunderstorm or
two may develop during the afternoon, but coverage will be minimal.
Dewpoints will stay around 70 with temperatures peaking into the mid
to upper 80s. Southwest winds will actually increase to 10 to 15 mph
tomorrow afternoon as this surface trough nears. By Tuesday morning,
will go with a 50% chance of showers and storms arriving across
southern Indiana by the pre-dawn hours.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A very weak cold front will cross from northwest to southeast
through the LMK CWA Tuesday-Tuesday night, just about washing out as
it does so.  Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature,
especially during the day on Tuesday. The main threat from any
stronger storms will be locally gusty winds, along with heavy
downpours with precipitable waters near two inches.

Went on the cool side of guidance for highs on Tuesday.  There
should be a fair amount of clouds around, and convection will be
possible in the morning as well as the afternoon. For now will go
with lower to middle 80s.

The southeast U.S. upper ridge will then build into the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys Wednesday through Friday, bringing a return to very
warm, sticky weather. High temperatures Wednesday should be in the
middle and upper 80s, and around 90 Thursday and Friday. Scattered
diurnal storms will be possible during this period so will hold on
to small PoPs.

Next weekend the upper ride will get flattened by an upper trof
cruising along the Canadian border.  Also, a surface cold front will
approach us from the northwest and move through southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sometime Friday night into Saturday morning. This
front will be a little stronger than the Tuesday front, and will
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms.  Depending on the
timing of the front, a few strong storms with gusty winds could
occur, especially Friday afternoon and evening.

High pressure will then build back in at the surface for Saturday
and Sunday. However, we`ll be close to the favored upper disturbance
track along the north edge of an upper ridge strung out along the
southern third of the U.S., so will have to keep a small PoP in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Have some mid-level drying out their now, helping to rid the region
of showers/storms for now, but not necessarily lower-level issues.
Each of the terminals may see some periods of MVFR clouds through
daybreak. Then we will see winds pick up from the southwest, ahead
of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Gusts of 20-25 knots
are possible through the day. An isolated pop-up storm is possible
in the afternoon, but not confident enough to put in the forecast at
this time. The better chance for rain will come Tuesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 010524
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
124 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Scattered showers and storms continue to weaken across the forecast
area.  We still have one small batch of showers just east of
Bardstown up toward Frankfort.  This activity will continue to
weaken and move east over the next few hours.  Thus, will continue
some low chance PoPs across the Bluegrass region for the next few
hours.

For the overnight period, skies will initially clear out.  However,
with the very moist low-level environment and light winds, expect
low stratus to build back down with skies going back to mostly
cloudy.  Patchy fog looks like a good bet across the region.
However, the surface winds may remain elevated enough to keep the
lower atmosphere mixed to prevent widespread dense fog.  On the
other hand, if we decouple completely and do not have the low-level
stratus build down, we could see a bit more fog than what is
currently forecast.  For now have gone with mostly cloudy skies
overnight with patchy fog.  Overnight temperatures will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  Will highlight the fog potential in
the HWO product and continue to monitor conditions closely this
evening and into the overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Lift associated with the right rear entrance of an exiting jet and
tropical moisture will slowly move east this evening. Areas of light
rain showers will diminish later this afternoon or evening.

Shallow moisture will remain behind though and clouds will have a
hard time clearing this evening and overnight. With south winds
around 5 mph expected overnight, our lows early Labor Day will range
from 70 to the lower 70s.

A strong jet now entering the central plains will spawn low pressure
across Minnesota late this evening. This cyclone will deepen later
Monday as it moves well north of the Great Lakes. It will provide a
cold front that will move southeast into central Missouri and
Illinois by early Tuesday.

Moist air and surface convergence ahead of this boundary will lead
to widespread convection to our northwest late Monday. Some of these
storms, which may be in a weakening phase, may move into southern
Indiana towards the Ohio River during the morning hours.

So...expect partial clearing Monday with quite warm and humid
conditions during the afternoon hours. An isolated thunderstorm or
two may develop during the afternoon, but coverage will be minimal.
Dewpoints will stay around 70 with temperatures peaking into the mid
to upper 80s. Southwest winds will actually increase to 10 to 15 mph
tomorrow afternoon as this surface trough nears. By Tuesday morning,
will go with a 50% chance of showers and storms arriving across
southern Indiana by the pre-dawn hours.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A very weak cold front will cross from northwest to southeast
through the LMK CWA Tuesday-Tuesday night, just about washing out as
it does so.  Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature,
especially during the day on Tuesday. The main threat from any
stronger storms will be locally gusty winds, along with heavy
downpours with precipitable waters near two inches.

Went on the cool side of guidance for highs on Tuesday.  There
should be a fair amount of clouds around, and convection will be
possible in the morning as well as the afternoon. For now will go
with lower to middle 80s.

The southeast U.S. upper ridge will then build into the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys Wednesday through Friday, bringing a return to very
warm, sticky weather. High temperatures Wednesday should be in the
middle and upper 80s, and around 90 Thursday and Friday. Scattered
diurnal storms will be possible during this period so will hold on
to small PoPs.

Next weekend the upper ride will get flattened by an upper trof
cruising along the Canadian border.  Also, a surface cold front will
approach us from the northwest and move through southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sometime Friday night into Saturday morning. This
front will be a little stronger than the Tuesday front, and will
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms.  Depending on the
timing of the front, a few strong storms with gusty winds could
occur, especially Friday afternoon and evening.

High pressure will then build back in at the surface for Saturday
and Sunday. However, we`ll be close to the favored upper disturbance
track along the north edge of an upper ridge strung out along the
southern third of the U.S., so will have to keep a small PoP in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Have some mid-level drying out their now, helping to rid the region
of showers/storms for now, but not necessarily lower-level issues.
Each of the terminals may see some periods of MVFR clouds through
daybreak. Then we will see winds pick up from the southwest, ahead
of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Gusts of 20-25 knots
are possible through the day. An isolated pop-up storm is possible
in the afternoon, but not confident enough to put in the forecast at
this time. The better chance for rain will come Tuesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010148
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
948 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Scattered showers and storms continue to weaken across the forecast
area.  We still have one small batch of showers just east of
Bardstown up toward Frankfort.  This activity will continue to
weaken and move east over the next few hours.  Thus, will continue
some low chance PoPs across the Bluegrass region for the next few
hours.

For the overnight period, skies will initially clear out.  However,
with the very moist low-level environment and light winds, expect
low stratus to build back down with skies going back to mostly
cloudy.  Patchy fog looks like a good bet across the region.
However, the surface winds may remain elevated enough to keep the
lower atmosphere mixed to prevent widespread dense fog.  On the
other hand, if we decouple completely and do not have the low-level
stratus build down, we could see a bit more fog than what is
currently forecast.  For now have gone with mostly cloudy skies
overnight with patchy fog.  Overnight temperatures will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  Will highlight the fog potential in
the HWO product and continue to monitor conditions closely this
evening and into the overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Lift associated with the right rear entrance of an exiting jet and
tropical moisture will slowly move east this evening. Areas of light
rain showers will diminish later this afternoon or evening.

Shallow moisture will remain behind though and clouds will have a
hard time clearing this evening and overnight. With south winds
around 5 mph expected overnight, our lows early Labor Day will range
from 70 to the lower 70s.

A strong jet now entering the central plains will spawn low pressure
across Minnesota late this evening. This cyclone will deepen later
Monday as it moves well north of the Great Lakes. It will provide a
cold front that will move southeast into central Missouri and
Illinois by early Tuesday.

Moist air and surface convergence ahead of this boundary will lead
to widespread convection to our northwest late Monday. Some of these
storms, which may be in a weakening phase, may move into southern
Indiana towards the Ohio River during the morning hours.

So...expect partial clearing Monday with quite warm and humid
conditions during the afternoon hours. An isolated thunderstorm or
two may develop during the afternoon, but coverage will be minimal.
Dewpoints will stay around 70 with temperatures peaking into the mid
to upper 80s. Southwest winds will actually increase to 10 to 15 mph
tomorrow afternoon as this surface trough nears. By Tuesday morning,
will go with a 50% chance of showers and storms arriving across
southern Indiana by the pre-dawn hours.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A very weak cold front will cross from northwest to southeast
through the LMK CWA Tuesday-Tuesday night, just about washing out as
it does so.  Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature,
especially during the day on Tuesday. The main threat from any
stronger storms will be locally gusty winds, along with heavy
downpours with precipitable waters near two inches.

Went on the cool side of guidance for highs on Tuesday.  There
should be a fair amount of clouds around, and convection will be
possible in the morning as well as the afternoon. For now will go
with lower to middle 80s.

The southeast U.S. upper ridge will then build into the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys Wednesday through Friday, bringing a return to very
warm, sticky weather. High temperatures Wednesday should be in the
middle and upper 80s, and around 90 Thursday and Friday. Scattered
diurnal storms will be possible during this period so will hold on
to small PoPs.

Next weekend the upper ride will get flattened by an upper trof
cruising along the Canadian border.  Also, a surface cold front will
approach us from the northwest and move through southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sometime Friday night into Saturday morning. This
front will be a little stronger than the Tuesday front, and will
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms.  Depending on the
timing of the front, a few strong storms with gusty winds could
occur, especially Friday afternoon and evening.

High pressure will then build back in at the surface for Saturday
and Sunday. However, we`ll be close to the favored upper disturbance
track along the north edge of an upper ridge strung out along the
southern third of the U.S., so will have to keep a small PoP in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Scattered showers will continue to move across east-central Kentucky
this evening.  Back edge of the showers and clouds is currently
along the I-65 corridor.  Expect showers to diminish rapidly over
the next hour or two with the loss of insolation.  Wind will
generally remain light out of the south this evening.

For the overnight period, a moist low-level environment will be in
place across much of the region.  Recent satellite imagery shows
clearing skies out across western KY.  However, much of the model
guidance suggests that low-level stratus build down will occur
overnight.  Surface winds may remain elevated enough to keep
widespread fog from forming.  For now, plan on going with lowering
ceilings this evening and into the overnight.  Plan on keeping KBWG
and KSDF in the MVFR range, though some temp IFR visibilities can
not be ruled out at KBWG between 01/09-13Z.  Over at KLEX, expect
MVFR cigs to redevelop around 01/02-03Z and then drop down to near
IFR levels from 01/06-14Z.

Ceilings and visibilities will recover to VFR conditions by 01/14Z.
Surface winds will pick up on Monday with sustained southwest winds
of 10-14kts with gusts of up to 18-20kts being possible.  Some
isolated convection may develop during the afternoon, but overall
coverage looks too sparse to include in the upcoming TAF forecast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010148
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
948 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Scattered showers and storms continue to weaken across the forecast
area.  We still have one small batch of showers just east of
Bardstown up toward Frankfort.  This activity will continue to
weaken and move east over the next few hours.  Thus, will continue
some low chance PoPs across the Bluegrass region for the next few
hours.

For the overnight period, skies will initially clear out.  However,
with the very moist low-level environment and light winds, expect
low stratus to build back down with skies going back to mostly
cloudy.  Patchy fog looks like a good bet across the region.
However, the surface winds may remain elevated enough to keep the
lower atmosphere mixed to prevent widespread dense fog.  On the
other hand, if we decouple completely and do not have the low-level
stratus build down, we could see a bit more fog than what is
currently forecast.  For now have gone with mostly cloudy skies
overnight with patchy fog.  Overnight temperatures will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  Will highlight the fog potential in
the HWO product and continue to monitor conditions closely this
evening and into the overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Lift associated with the right rear entrance of an exiting jet and
tropical moisture will slowly move east this evening. Areas of light
rain showers will diminish later this afternoon or evening.

Shallow moisture will remain behind though and clouds will have a
hard time clearing this evening and overnight. With south winds
around 5 mph expected overnight, our lows early Labor Day will range
from 70 to the lower 70s.

A strong jet now entering the central plains will spawn low pressure
across Minnesota late this evening. This cyclone will deepen later
Monday as it moves well north of the Great Lakes. It will provide a
cold front that will move southeast into central Missouri and
Illinois by early Tuesday.

Moist air and surface convergence ahead of this boundary will lead
to widespread convection to our northwest late Monday. Some of these
storms, which may be in a weakening phase, may move into southern
Indiana towards the Ohio River during the morning hours.

So...expect partial clearing Monday with quite warm and humid
conditions during the afternoon hours. An isolated thunderstorm or
two may develop during the afternoon, but coverage will be minimal.
Dewpoints will stay around 70 with temperatures peaking into the mid
to upper 80s. Southwest winds will actually increase to 10 to 15 mph
tomorrow afternoon as this surface trough nears. By Tuesday morning,
will go with a 50% chance of showers and storms arriving across
southern Indiana by the pre-dawn hours.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A very weak cold front will cross from northwest to southeast
through the LMK CWA Tuesday-Tuesday night, just about washing out as
it does so.  Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature,
especially during the day on Tuesday. The main threat from any
stronger storms will be locally gusty winds, along with heavy
downpours with precipitable waters near two inches.

Went on the cool side of guidance for highs on Tuesday.  There
should be a fair amount of clouds around, and convection will be
possible in the morning as well as the afternoon. For now will go
with lower to middle 80s.

The southeast U.S. upper ridge will then build into the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys Wednesday through Friday, bringing a return to very
warm, sticky weather. High temperatures Wednesday should be in the
middle and upper 80s, and around 90 Thursday and Friday. Scattered
diurnal storms will be possible during this period so will hold on
to small PoPs.

Next weekend the upper ride will get flattened by an upper trof
cruising along the Canadian border.  Also, a surface cold front will
approach us from the northwest and move through southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sometime Friday night into Saturday morning. This
front will be a little stronger than the Tuesday front, and will
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms.  Depending on the
timing of the front, a few strong storms with gusty winds could
occur, especially Friday afternoon and evening.

High pressure will then build back in at the surface for Saturday
and Sunday. However, we`ll be close to the favored upper disturbance
track along the north edge of an upper ridge strung out along the
southern third of the U.S., so will have to keep a small PoP in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Scattered showers will continue to move across east-central Kentucky
this evening.  Back edge of the showers and clouds is currently
along the I-65 corridor.  Expect showers to diminish rapidly over
the next hour or two with the loss of insolation.  Wind will
generally remain light out of the south this evening.

For the overnight period, a moist low-level environment will be in
place across much of the region.  Recent satellite imagery shows
clearing skies out across western KY.  However, much of the model
guidance suggests that low-level stratus build down will occur
overnight.  Surface winds may remain elevated enough to keep
widespread fog from forming.  For now, plan on going with lowering
ceilings this evening and into the overnight.  Plan on keeping KBWG
and KSDF in the MVFR range, though some temp IFR visibilities can
not be ruled out at KBWG between 01/09-13Z.  Over at KLEX, expect
MVFR cigs to redevelop around 01/02-03Z and then drop down to near
IFR levels from 01/06-14Z.

Ceilings and visibilities will recover to VFR conditions by 01/14Z.
Surface winds will pick up on Monday with sustained southwest winds
of 10-14kts with gusts of up to 18-20kts being possible.  Some
isolated convection may develop during the afternoon, but overall
coverage looks too sparse to include in the upcoming TAF forecast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......MJ








000
FXUS63 KLMK 312304
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
704 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Lift associated with the right rear entrance of an exiting jet and
tropical moisture will slowly move east this evening. Areas of light
rain showers will diminish later this afternoon or evening.

Shallow moisture will remain behind though and clouds will have a
hard time clearing this evening and overnight. With south winds
around 5 mph expected overnight, our lows early Labor Day will range
from 70 to the lower 70s.

A strong jet now entering the central plains will spawn low pressure
across Minnesota late this evening. This cyclone will deepen later
Monday as it moves well north of the Great Lakes. It will provide a
cold front that will move southeast into central Missouri and
Illinois by early Tuesday.

Moist air and surface convergence ahead of this boundary will lead
to widespread convection to our northwest late Monday. Some of these
storms, which may be in a weakening phase, may move into southern
Indiana towards the Ohio River during the morning hours.

So...expect partial clearing Monday with quite warm and humid
conditions during the afternoon hours. An isolated thunderstorm or
two may develop during the afternoon, but coverage will be minimal.
Dewpoints will stay around 70 with temperatures peaking into the mid
to upper 80s. Southwest winds will actually increase to 10 to 15 mph
tomorrow afternoon as this surface trough nears. By Tuesday morning,
will go with a 50% chance of showers and storms arriving across
southern Indiana by the pre-dawn hours.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A very weak cold front will cross from northwest to southeast
through the LMK CWA Tuesday-Tuesday night, just about washing out as
it does so.  Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature,
especially during the day on Tuesday. The main threat from any
stronger storms will be locally gusty winds, along with heavy
downpours with precipitable waters near two inches.

Went on the cool side of guidance for highs on Tuesday.  There
should be a fair amount of clouds around, and convection will be
possible in the morning as well as the afternoon. For now will go
with lower to middle 80s.

The southeast U.S. upper ridge will then build into the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys Wednesday through Friday, bringing a return to very
warm, sticky weather. High temperatures Wednesday should be in the
middle and upper 80s, and around 90 Thursday and Friday. Scattered
diurnal storms will be possible during this period so will hold on
to small PoPs.

Next weekend the upper ride will get flattened by an upper trof
cruising along the Canadian border.  Also, a surface cold front will
approach us from the northwest and move through southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sometime Friday night into Saturday morning. This
front will be a little stronger than the Tuesday front, and will
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms.  Depending on the
timing of the front, a few strong storms with gusty winds could
occur, especially Friday afternoon and evening.

High pressure will then build back in at the surface for Saturday
and Sunday. However, we`ll be close to the favored upper disturbance
track along the north edge of an upper ridge strung out along the
southern third of the U.S., so will have to keep a small PoP in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Scattered showers will continue to move across east-central Kentucky
this evening.  Back edge of the showers and clouds is currently
along the I-65 corridor.  Expect showers to diminish rapidly over
the next hour or two with the loss of insolation.  Wind will
generally remain light out of the south this evening.

For the overnight period, a moist low-level environment will be in
place across much of the region.  Recent satellite imagery shows
clearing skies out across western KY.  However, much of the model
guidance suggests that low-level stratus build down will occur
overnight.  Surface winds may remain elevated enough to keep
widespread fog from forming.  For now, plan on going with lowering
ceilings this evening and into the overnight.  Plan on keeping KBWG
and KSDF in the MVFR range, though some temp IFR visibilities can
not be ruled out at KBWG between 01/09-13Z.  Over at KLEX, expect
MVFR cigs to redevelop around 01/02-03Z and then drop down to near
IFR levels from 01/06-14Z.

Ceilings and visibilities will recover to VFR conditions by 01/14Z.
Surface winds will pick up on Monday with sustained southwest winds
of 10-14kts with gusts of up to 18-20kts being possible.  Some
isolated convection may develop during the afternoon, but overall
coverage looks too sparse to include in the upcoming TAF forecast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 312304
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
704 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Lift associated with the right rear entrance of an exiting jet and
tropical moisture will slowly move east this evening. Areas of light
rain showers will diminish later this afternoon or evening.

Shallow moisture will remain behind though and clouds will have a
hard time clearing this evening and overnight. With south winds
around 5 mph expected overnight, our lows early Labor Day will range
from 70 to the lower 70s.

A strong jet now entering the central plains will spawn low pressure
across Minnesota late this evening. This cyclone will deepen later
Monday as it moves well north of the Great Lakes. It will provide a
cold front that will move southeast into central Missouri and
Illinois by early Tuesday.

Moist air and surface convergence ahead of this boundary will lead
to widespread convection to our northwest late Monday. Some of these
storms, which may be in a weakening phase, may move into southern
Indiana towards the Ohio River during the morning hours.

So...expect partial clearing Monday with quite warm and humid
conditions during the afternoon hours. An isolated thunderstorm or
two may develop during the afternoon, but coverage will be minimal.
Dewpoints will stay around 70 with temperatures peaking into the mid
to upper 80s. Southwest winds will actually increase to 10 to 15 mph
tomorrow afternoon as this surface trough nears. By Tuesday morning,
will go with a 50% chance of showers and storms arriving across
southern Indiana by the pre-dawn hours.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A very weak cold front will cross from northwest to southeast
through the LMK CWA Tuesday-Tuesday night, just about washing out as
it does so.  Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature,
especially during the day on Tuesday. The main threat from any
stronger storms will be locally gusty winds, along with heavy
downpours with precipitable waters near two inches.

Went on the cool side of guidance for highs on Tuesday.  There
should be a fair amount of clouds around, and convection will be
possible in the morning as well as the afternoon. For now will go
with lower to middle 80s.

The southeast U.S. upper ridge will then build into the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys Wednesday through Friday, bringing a return to very
warm, sticky weather. High temperatures Wednesday should be in the
middle and upper 80s, and around 90 Thursday and Friday. Scattered
diurnal storms will be possible during this period so will hold on
to small PoPs.

Next weekend the upper ride will get flattened by an upper trof
cruising along the Canadian border.  Also, a surface cold front will
approach us from the northwest and move through southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sometime Friday night into Saturday morning. This
front will be a little stronger than the Tuesday front, and will
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms.  Depending on the
timing of the front, a few strong storms with gusty winds could
occur, especially Friday afternoon and evening.

High pressure will then build back in at the surface for Saturday
and Sunday. However, we`ll be close to the favored upper disturbance
track along the north edge of an upper ridge strung out along the
southern third of the U.S., so will have to keep a small PoP in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Scattered showers will continue to move across east-central Kentucky
this evening.  Back edge of the showers and clouds is currently
along the I-65 corridor.  Expect showers to diminish rapidly over
the next hour or two with the loss of insolation.  Wind will
generally remain light out of the south this evening.

For the overnight period, a moist low-level environment will be in
place across much of the region.  Recent satellite imagery shows
clearing skies out across western KY.  However, much of the model
guidance suggests that low-level stratus build down will occur
overnight.  Surface winds may remain elevated enough to keep
widespread fog from forming.  For now, plan on going with lowering
ceilings this evening and into the overnight.  Plan on keeping KBWG
and KSDF in the MVFR range, though some temp IFR visibilities can
not be ruled out at KBWG between 01/09-13Z.  Over at KLEX, expect
MVFR cigs to redevelop around 01/02-03Z and then drop down to near
IFR levels from 01/06-14Z.

Ceilings and visibilities will recover to VFR conditions by 01/14Z.
Surface winds will pick up on Monday with sustained southwest winds
of 10-14kts with gusts of up to 18-20kts being possible.  Some
isolated convection may develop during the afternoon, but overall
coverage looks too sparse to include in the upcoming TAF forecast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 311914
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Lift associated with the right rear entrance of an exiting jet and
tropical moisture will slowly move east this evening. Areas of light
rain showers will diminish later this afternoon or evening.

Shallow moisture will remain behind though and clouds will have a
hard time clearing this evening and overnight. With south winds
around 5 mph expected overnight, our lows early Labor Day will range
from 70 to the lower 70s.

A strong jet now entering the central plains will spawn low pressure
across Minnesota late this evening. This cyclone will deepen later
Monday as it moves well north of the Great Lakes. It will provide a
cold front that will move southeast into central Missouri and
Illinois by early Tuesday.

Moist air and surface convergence ahead of this boundary will lead
to widespread convection to our northwest late Monday. Some of these
storms, which may be in a weakening phase, may move into southern
Indiana towards the Ohio River during the morning hours.

So...expect partial clearing Monday with quite warm and humid
conditions during the afternoon hours. An isolated thunderstorm or
two may develop during the afternoon, but coverage will be minimal.
Dewpoints will stay around 70 with temperatures peaking into the mid
to upper 80s. Southwest winds will actually increase to 10 to 15 mph
tomorrow afternoon as this surface trough nears. By Tuesday morning,
will go with a 50% chance of showers and storms arriving across
southern Indiana by the pre-dawn hours.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A very weak cold front will cross from northwest to southeast
through the LMK CWA Tuesday-Tuesday night, just about washing out as
it does so.  Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature,
especially during the day on Tuesday. The main threat from any
stronger storms will be locally gusty winds, along with heavy
downpours with precipitable waters near two inches.

Went on the cool side of guidance for highs on Tuesday.  There
should be a fair amount of clouds around, and convection will be
possible in the morning as well as the afternoon. For now will go
with lower to middle 80s.

The southeast U.S. upper ridge will then build into the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys Wednesday through Friday, bringing a return to very
warm, sticky weather. High temperatures Wednesday should be in the
middle and upper 80s, and around 90 Thursday and Friday. Scattered
diurnal storms will be possible during this period so will hold on
to small PoPs.

Next weekend the upper ride will get flattened by an upper trof
cruising along the Canadian border.  Also, a surface cold front will
approach us from the northwest and move through southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sometime Friday night into Saturday morning. This
front will be a little stronger than the Tuesday front, and will
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms.  Depending on the
timing of the front, a few strong storms with gusty winds could
occur, especially Friday afternoon and evening.

High pressure will then build back in at the surface for Saturday
and Sunday. However, we`ll be close to the favored upper disturbance
track along the north edge of an upper ridge strung out along the
southern third of the U.S., so will have to keep a small PoP in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Scattered light rain showers with little reduction in visibilities
will continue at LEX and BWG through around 22z before they
diminish. At SDF, aside from a few sprinkles, much of any
accumulating precipitation has ended.

Low MVFR ceilings will predominate, this afternoon, although
occasionally low strato-cu will temporarily may scatter out at times
late this afternoon.  Overnight, after 02z, think that MVFR ceilings
will continue as low strato-cu will likely persist or re-develop.

Ceilings will lift to VFR heights during the early to mid-morning
hours Monday.

Light south to southwest winds will continue this evening and
overnight, ranging from 5 to 9 mph. Southwest winds will increase by
late morning to around 10 to 15 mph, with some gusts up to 20 mph.
VFR ceilings are expected Monday afternoon through the evening.
Thunderstorms will be non-existent Monday or so sparse that any
mention will be kept out of the TAF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 311914
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Lift associated with the right rear entrance of an exiting jet and
tropical moisture will slowly move east this evening. Areas of light
rain showers will diminish later this afternoon or evening.

Shallow moisture will remain behind though and clouds will have a
hard time clearing this evening and overnight. With south winds
around 5 mph expected overnight, our lows early Labor Day will range
from 70 to the lower 70s.

A strong jet now entering the central plains will spawn low pressure
across Minnesota late this evening. This cyclone will deepen later
Monday as it moves well north of the Great Lakes. It will provide a
cold front that will move southeast into central Missouri and
Illinois by early Tuesday.

Moist air and surface convergence ahead of this boundary will lead
to widespread convection to our northwest late Monday. Some of these
storms, which may be in a weakening phase, may move into southern
Indiana towards the Ohio River during the morning hours.

So...expect partial clearing Monday with quite warm and humid
conditions during the afternoon hours. An isolated thunderstorm or
two may develop during the afternoon, but coverage will be minimal.
Dewpoints will stay around 70 with temperatures peaking into the mid
to upper 80s. Southwest winds will actually increase to 10 to 15 mph
tomorrow afternoon as this surface trough nears. By Tuesday morning,
will go with a 50% chance of showers and storms arriving across
southern Indiana by the pre-dawn hours.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A very weak cold front will cross from northwest to southeast
through the LMK CWA Tuesday-Tuesday night, just about washing out as
it does so.  Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature,
especially during the day on Tuesday. The main threat from any
stronger storms will be locally gusty winds, along with heavy
downpours with precipitable waters near two inches.

Went on the cool side of guidance for highs on Tuesday.  There
should be a fair amount of clouds around, and convection will be
possible in the morning as well as the afternoon. For now will go
with lower to middle 80s.

The southeast U.S. upper ridge will then build into the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys Wednesday through Friday, bringing a return to very
warm, sticky weather. High temperatures Wednesday should be in the
middle and upper 80s, and around 90 Thursday and Friday. Scattered
diurnal storms will be possible during this period so will hold on
to small PoPs.

Next weekend the upper ride will get flattened by an upper trof
cruising along the Canadian border.  Also, a surface cold front will
approach us from the northwest and move through southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sometime Friday night into Saturday morning. This
front will be a little stronger than the Tuesday front, and will
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms.  Depending on the
timing of the front, a few strong storms with gusty winds could
occur, especially Friday afternoon and evening.

High pressure will then build back in at the surface for Saturday
and Sunday. However, we`ll be close to the favored upper disturbance
track along the north edge of an upper ridge strung out along the
southern third of the U.S., so will have to keep a small PoP in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Scattered light rain showers with little reduction in visibilities
will continue at LEX and BWG through around 22z before they
diminish. At SDF, aside from a few sprinkles, much of any
accumulating precipitation has ended.

Low MVFR ceilings will predominate, this afternoon, although
occasionally low strato-cu will temporarily may scatter out at times
late this afternoon.  Overnight, after 02z, think that MVFR ceilings
will continue as low strato-cu will likely persist or re-develop.

Ceilings will lift to VFR heights during the early to mid-morning
hours Monday.

Light south to southwest winds will continue this evening and
overnight, ranging from 5 to 9 mph. Southwest winds will increase by
late morning to around 10 to 15 mph, with some gusts up to 20 mph.
VFR ceilings are expected Monday afternoon through the evening.
Thunderstorms will be non-existent Monday or so sparse that any
mention will be kept out of the TAF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 311717
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Light to occasionally moderate rain will continue south of
Interstate 64 through early afternoon. The threat of thunderstorms
and associated heavy downpours has diminished greatly as dense cloud
cover and rain has precluded the development of any surface
instability. In general, most locations will stay under one half
inch of additional rainfall. Will almost certainly let the Flash
Flood Watch expire at 2 pm this afternoon.

In general, around 2 inches has fallen across our southern tier of
counties, including the Bowling Green area, with a few higher totals
where convection developed late yesterday.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect for East-Central Kentucky...

Deep southwest flow will continue over the Ohio Valley today as we
remain positioned between troughing over the central CONUS and a
strong SE CONUS ridge. This flow will set the stage for another
impressive plume of moisture riding over the area, ahead of another
disturbance. The threat for heavy rain will continue along and east
of the I-65 corridor today, although all locations are likely to see
rainfall.

Current radar shows the CWA in a relative precipitation lull as the
evening`s initial surge of moisture moves off to the NE, and we
await another round set to arrive around dawn. There are scattered
to numerous light rain showers lingering across the area, especially
along and south of the Ohio River. Expect this to continue through
the pre-dawn hours.

Focus will then shift to the next plume of moisture (characterized
by PWATs in the 2"-2.2" range) ahead of a wave currently near
Memphis. A 30-40 knot low level jet will accompany this feature,
aiding moisture transport through midday east of I-65. Additionally,
have seen some baroclinic leafing on IR satellite over the Wabash
River Valley associated with the right entrance region of an upper
level jet. This will slide east through the morning, overlapping the
best low level moisture surge from the low level jet over the
current Flash Flood Watch area. The end result will be potential for
bands of heavier rainfall setting up along and east of a BWG to LEX
line, where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain (locally higher)
are possible. Embedded thunderstorms are expected with this surge.
Therefore, will extend the Flash Flood Watch to 18z in coordination
with surrounding offices. One thing to note is that models have been
too far west with heaviest rainfall axis to this point. It is
possible that the heaviest axis will end up being further east by 50
to 100 miles if that bias continues. Areas outside of the watch can
expect another quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain through
today.

Will also mention that a few storms could rotate with the LLJ surge
this morning. SPC highlighted where this LLJ core will track with a
2% tornado contour, however surface based instability should be hard
to come by so don`t expect any problems at this point. Just some
food for thought if we do start seeing a few storms rotate. Most
probable area for an issue would be toward the Lake Cumberland
region.

Highs are not expected to budge a whole lot today as the mercury
struggles under heavy cloud cover and precipitation. Will call for
upper 70s NE to low 80s SW.

Precipitation will taper from west to east later this afternoon and
into the evening as the wave pushes east along with the deeper
moisture. Enough low level moisture will linger to leave mention of
an isolated shower through tonight, however most places are likely
to stay dry. Not too concerned about fog at this point since low
stratus seems to be the more likely player overnight. Look for lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

Labor Day is expected to be a mostly dry day with fairly steady SW
winds in a tighter pressure gradient between a southern Plains low
and high pressure to our SE. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm, however the pattern seems benign of any real triggers
in the SW flow aloft. The combination of decent amounts of sun and
the warm advective component should bring temperatures back in the
85-90 range.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Models continue to show showers and storms north of our region at
the start of the period, near a front that will make slow progress
toward the region. It is looking more likely that at some point
Tuesday we`ll get another round of heavy rain, as precipitable
waters once again head up to around 2 inches. That rain will come
either as a low-level jet ramps up across southern IN early Tuesday
or with peak heating during the day Tuesday. Thus will ramp up pops
to the 50-70 percent range. Will continue to undercut guidance
temperatures based on this thinking, but readings still should be
above normal.

Models had been portraying Wednesday as a transition day to hotter
and somewhat drier conditions for the rest of the period. However,
the latest GFS doesn`t have as strong of a ridge across our region,
in fact placing a weak upper low over the Wabash Thursday and mid
Ohio River Friday, then another disturbance enhancing rain chances
Saturday. The 12Z Euro hints at these features as well. NOGAPS
ensembles still show the ridge pattern in the mean fields, but the
spread fields are much more wavy, indicative more of these
disturbances being shows in the various ensemble members. Thus will
maintain chances for storms each day. Most likely the above normal
temperatures will continue through the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Scattered light rain showers with little reduction in visibilities
will continue at LEX and BWG through around 22z before they
diminish. At SDF, aside from a few sprinkles, much of any
accumulating precipitation has ended.

Low MVFR ceilings will predominate, this afternoon, although
occasionally low strato-cu will temporarily may scatter out at times
late this afternoon.  Overnight, after 02z, think that MVFR ceilings
will continue as low strato-cu will likely persist or re-develop.

Ceilings will lift to VFR heights during the early to mid-morning
hours Monday.

Light south to southwest winds will continue this evening and
overnight, ranging from 5 to 9 mph. Southwest winds will increase by
late morning to around 10 to 15 mph, with some gusts up to 20 mph.
VFR ceilings are expected Monday afternoon through the evening.
Thunderstorms will be non-existent Monday or so sparse that any
mention will be kept out of the TAF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon FOR
     KYZ040>043-046>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 311717
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Light to occasionally moderate rain will continue south of
Interstate 64 through early afternoon. The threat of thunderstorms
and associated heavy downpours has diminished greatly as dense cloud
cover and rain has precluded the development of any surface
instability. In general, most locations will stay under one half
inch of additional rainfall. Will almost certainly let the Flash
Flood Watch expire at 2 pm this afternoon.

In general, around 2 inches has fallen across our southern tier of
counties, including the Bowling Green area, with a few higher totals
where convection developed late yesterday.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect for East-Central Kentucky...

Deep southwest flow will continue over the Ohio Valley today as we
remain positioned between troughing over the central CONUS and a
strong SE CONUS ridge. This flow will set the stage for another
impressive plume of moisture riding over the area, ahead of another
disturbance. The threat for heavy rain will continue along and east
of the I-65 corridor today, although all locations are likely to see
rainfall.

Current radar shows the CWA in a relative precipitation lull as the
evening`s initial surge of moisture moves off to the NE, and we
await another round set to arrive around dawn. There are scattered
to numerous light rain showers lingering across the area, especially
along and south of the Ohio River. Expect this to continue through
the pre-dawn hours.

Focus will then shift to the next plume of moisture (characterized
by PWATs in the 2"-2.2" range) ahead of a wave currently near
Memphis. A 30-40 knot low level jet will accompany this feature,
aiding moisture transport through midday east of I-65. Additionally,
have seen some baroclinic leafing on IR satellite over the Wabash
River Valley associated with the right entrance region of an upper
level jet. This will slide east through the morning, overlapping the
best low level moisture surge from the low level jet over the
current Flash Flood Watch area. The end result will be potential for
bands of heavier rainfall setting up along and east of a BWG to LEX
line, where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain (locally higher)
are possible. Embedded thunderstorms are expected with this surge.
Therefore, will extend the Flash Flood Watch to 18z in coordination
with surrounding offices. One thing to note is that models have been
too far west with heaviest rainfall axis to this point. It is
possible that the heaviest axis will end up being further east by 50
to 100 miles if that bias continues. Areas outside of the watch can
expect another quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain through
today.

Will also mention that a few storms could rotate with the LLJ surge
this morning. SPC highlighted where this LLJ core will track with a
2% tornado contour, however surface based instability should be hard
to come by so don`t expect any problems at this point. Just some
food for thought if we do start seeing a few storms rotate. Most
probable area for an issue would be toward the Lake Cumberland
region.

Highs are not expected to budge a whole lot today as the mercury
struggles under heavy cloud cover and precipitation. Will call for
upper 70s NE to low 80s SW.

Precipitation will taper from west to east later this afternoon and
into the evening as the wave pushes east along with the deeper
moisture. Enough low level moisture will linger to leave mention of
an isolated shower through tonight, however most places are likely
to stay dry. Not too concerned about fog at this point since low
stratus seems to be the more likely player overnight. Look for lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

Labor Day is expected to be a mostly dry day with fairly steady SW
winds in a tighter pressure gradient between a southern Plains low
and high pressure to our SE. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm, however the pattern seems benign of any real triggers
in the SW flow aloft. The combination of decent amounts of sun and
the warm advective component should bring temperatures back in the
85-90 range.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Models continue to show showers and storms north of our region at
the start of the period, near a front that will make slow progress
toward the region. It is looking more likely that at some point
Tuesday we`ll get another round of heavy rain, as precipitable
waters once again head up to around 2 inches. That rain will come
either as a low-level jet ramps up across southern IN early Tuesday
or with peak heating during the day Tuesday. Thus will ramp up pops
to the 50-70 percent range. Will continue to undercut guidance
temperatures based on this thinking, but readings still should be
above normal.

Models had been portraying Wednesday as a transition day to hotter
and somewhat drier conditions for the rest of the period. However,
the latest GFS doesn`t have as strong of a ridge across our region,
in fact placing a weak upper low over the Wabash Thursday and mid
Ohio River Friday, then another disturbance enhancing rain chances
Saturday. The 12Z Euro hints at these features as well. NOGAPS
ensembles still show the ridge pattern in the mean fields, but the
spread fields are much more wavy, indicative more of these
disturbances being shows in the various ensemble members. Thus will
maintain chances for storms each day. Most likely the above normal
temperatures will continue through the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Scattered light rain showers with little reduction in visibilities
will continue at LEX and BWG through around 22z before they
diminish. At SDF, aside from a few sprinkles, much of any
accumulating precipitation has ended.

Low MVFR ceilings will predominate, this afternoon, although
occasionally low strato-cu will temporarily may scatter out at times
late this afternoon.  Overnight, after 02z, think that MVFR ceilings
will continue as low strato-cu will likely persist or re-develop.

Ceilings will lift to VFR heights during the early to mid-morning
hours Monday.

Light south to southwest winds will continue this evening and
overnight, ranging from 5 to 9 mph. Southwest winds will increase by
late morning to around 10 to 15 mph, with some gusts up to 20 mph.
VFR ceilings are expected Monday afternoon through the evening.
Thunderstorms will be non-existent Monday or so sparse that any
mention will be kept out of the TAF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon FOR
     KYZ040>043-046>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 311555
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Light to occasionally moderate rain will continue south of
Interstate 64 through early afternoon. The threat of thunderstorms
and associated heavy downpours has diminished greatly as dense cloud
cover and rain has precluded the development of any surface
instability. In general, most locations will stay under one half
inch of additional rainfall. Will almost certainly let the Flash
Flood Watch expire at 2 pm this afternoon.

In general, around 2 inches has fallen across our southern tier of
counties, including the Bowling Green area, with a few higher totals
where convection developed late yesterday.


Issued at 825 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Updated the forecast to remove a portion of the Flash Flood Watch
from the western and northern Bluegrass, while keeping it intact
across southern Kentucky and the southern Bluegrass. Not much rain
has fallen so far across the Bluegrass and northwest of the
Cumberland Parkway. Through 8 am, total rainfall amounts have ranged
from around 1 to locally over 2 inches across our southern counties,
with one spot in Simpson County receiving over 3 inches.

The bulk of any additional rain will fall across our southern
counties this morning through early afternoon, with an additional
inch or so expected. Showers will be much more sparse across
southern Indiana and southeast of the Ohio River, where, I think,
the bulk of today will be dry.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect for East-Central Kentucky...

Deep southwest flow will continue over the Ohio Valley today as we
remain positioned between troughing over the central CONUS and a
strong SE CONUS ridge. This flow will set the stage for another
impressive plume of moisture riding over the area, ahead of another
disturbance. The threat for heavy rain will continue along and east
of the I-65 corridor today, although all locations are likely to see
rainfall.

Current radar shows the CWA in a relative precipitation lull as the
evening`s initial surge of moisture moves off to the NE, and we
await another round set to arrive around dawn. There are scattered
to numerous light rain showers lingering across the area, especially
along and south of the Ohio River. Expect this to continue through
the pre-dawn hours.

Focus will then shift to the next plume of moisture (characterized
by PWATs in the 2"-2.2" range) ahead of a wave currently near
Memphis. A 30-40 knot low level jet will accompany this feature,
aiding moisture transport through midday east of I-65. Additionally,
have seen some baroclinic leafing on IR satellite over the Wabash
River Valley associated with the right entrance region of an upper
level jet. This will slide east through the morning, overlapping the
best low level moisture surge from the low level jet over the
current Flash Flood Watch area. The end result will be potential for
bands of heavier rainfall setting up along and east of a BWG to LEX
line, where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain (locally higher)
are possible. Embedded thunderstorms are expected with this surge.
Therefore, will extend the Flash Flood Watch to 18z in coordination
with surrounding offices. One thing to note is that models have been
too far west with heaviest rainfall axis to this point. It is
possible that the heaviest axis will end up being further east by 50
to 100 miles if that bias continues. Areas outside of the watch can
expect another quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain through
today.

Will also mention that a few storms could rotate with the LLJ surge
this morning. SPC highlighted where this LLJ core will track with a
2% tornado contour, however surface based instability should be hard
to come by so don`t expect any problems at this point. Just some
food for thought if we do start seeing a few storms rotate. Most
probable area for an issue would be toward the Lake Cumberland
region.

Highs are not expected to budge a whole lot today as the mercury
struggles under heavy cloud cover and precipitation. Will call for
upper 70s NE to low 80s SW.

Precipitation will taper from west to east later this afternoon and
into the evening as the wave pushes east along with the deeper
moisture. Enough low level moisture will linger to leave mention of
an isolated shower through tonight, however most places are likely
to stay dry. Not too concerned about fog at this point since low
stratus seems to be the more likely player overnight. Look for lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

Labor Day is expected to be a mostly dry day with fairly steady SW
winds in a tighter pressure gradient between a southern Plains low
and high pressure to our SE. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm, however the pattern seems benign of any real triggers
in the SW flow aloft. The combination of decent amounts of sun and
the warm advective component should bring temperatures back in the
85-90 range.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Models continue to show showers and storms north of our region at
the start of the period, near a front that will make slow progress
toward the region. It is looking more likely that at some point
Tuesday we`ll get another round of heavy rain, as precipitable
waters once again head up to around 2 inches. That rain will come
either as a low-level jet ramps up across southern IN early Tuesday
or with peak heating during the day Tuesday. Thus will ramp up pops
to the 50-70 percent range. Will continue to undercut guidance
temperatures based on this thinking, but readings still should be
above normal.

Models had been portraying Wednesday as a transition day to hotter
and somewhat drier conditions for the rest of the period. However,
the latest GFS doesn`t have as strong of a ridge across our region,
in fact placing a weak upper low over the Wabash Thursday and mid
Ohio River Friday, then another disturbance enhancing rain chances
Saturday. The 12Z Euro hints at these features as well. NOGAPS
ensembles still show the ridge pattern in the mean fields, but the
spread fields are much more wavy, indicative more of these
disturbances being shows in the various ensemble members. Thus will
maintain chances for storms each day. Most likely the above normal
temperatures will continue through the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 649 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A tricky forecast over the next 24 hours as a plume of Gulf moisture
streams through the Ohio Valley ahead of a disturbance embedded in
the deep southwest flow. Widespread rain is now impacting BWG, and
is set to reach LEX by late morning. Expect visibilities to drop
into the MVFR category with this batch of moisture. Ceilings outside
of the rain have been able to find their way into the IFR range at
times, however do expect improvement during the rain showers as low
levels get somewhat mixed by showers. Overall, expect BWG to see
improvement by 1 PM CDT, with widespread showers ending and ceilings
trying to find their way back into the VFR range. LEX should expect
improvement by 3 PM EDT, with only lingering showers and ceilings
hovering on the VFR/MVFR threshold.

SDF should stay more on the northern fringes of the precipitation
shield, with ceilings waffling in and out of IFR until numerous
showers arrive later this morning. Best timing looks to be between
10 AM and 1 PM EDT, before improvement takes over. Ceilings should
find their way back to the VFR range by mid to late afternoon.

Overall winds will generally be out of the south around 10 mph
through this forecast cycle.

Rain will be pretty well gone by tonight, however lingering low
level moisture will bring the threat of low stratus back into the
forecast. Expect at least MVFR ceilings through the overnight hours
as we head into Labor Day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon FOR
     KYZ040>043-046>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 311229
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
829 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Updated Aviation and forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...

Issued at 825 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Updated the forecast to remove a portion of the Flash Flood Watch
from the western and northern Bluegrass, while keeping it intact
across southern Kentucky and the southern Bluegrass. Not much rain
has fallen so far across the Bluegrass and northwest of the
Cumberland Parkway. Through 8 am, total rainfall amounts have
ranged from around 1 to locally over 2 inches across our southern
counties, with one spot in Simpson County receiving over 3 inches.

The bulk of any additional rain will fall across our southern
counties this morning through early afternoon, with an additional
inch or so expected. Showers will be much more sparse across
southern Indiana and southeast of the Ohio River, where, I think,
the bulk of today will be dry.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect for East-Central Kentucky...

Deep southwest flow will continue over the Ohio Valley today as we
remain positioned between troughing over the central CONUS and a
strong SE CONUS ridge. This flow will set the stage for another
impressive plume of moisture riding over the area, ahead of another
disturbance. The threat for heavy rain will continue along and east
of the I-65 corridor today, although all locations are likely to see
rainfall.

Current radar shows the CWA in a relative precipitation lull as the
evening`s initial surge of moisture moves off to the NE, and we
await another round set to arrive around dawn. There are scattered
to numerous light rain showers lingering across the area, especially
along and south of the Ohio River. Expect this to continue through
the pre-dawn hours.

Focus will then shift to the next plume of moisture (characterized
by PWATs in the 2"-2.2" range) ahead of a wave currently near
Memphis. A 30-40 knot low level jet will accompany this feature,
aiding moisture transport through midday east of I-65. Additionally,
have seen some baroclinic leafing on IR satellite over the Wabash
River Valley associated with the right entrance region of an upper
level jet. This will slide east through the morning, overlapping the
best low level moisture surge from the low level jet over the
current Flash Flood Watch area. The end result will be potential for
bands of heavier rainfall setting up along and east of a BWG to LEX
line, where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain (locally higher)
are possible. Embedded thunderstorms are expected with this surge.
Therefore, will extend the Flash Flood Watch to 18z in coordination
with surrounding offices. One thing to note is that models have been
too far west with heaviest rainfall axis to this point. It is
possible that the heaviest axis will end up being further east by 50
to 100 miles if that bias continues. Areas outside of the watch can
expect another quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain through
today.

Will also mention that a few storms could rotate with the LLJ surge
this morning. SPC highlighted where this LLJ core will track with a
2% tornado contour, however surface based instability should be hard
to come by so don`t expect any problems at this point. Just some
food for thought if we do start seeing a few storms rotate. Most
probable area for an issue would be toward the Lake Cumberland
region.

Highs are not expected to budge a whole lot today as the mercury
struggles under heavy cloud cover and precipitation. Will call for
upper 70s NE to low 80s SW.

Precipitation will taper from west to east later this afternoon and
into the evening as the wave pushes east along with the deeper
moisture. Enough low level moisture will linger to leave mention of
an isolated shower through tonight, however most places are likely
to stay dry. Not too concerned about fog at this point since low
stratus seems to be the more likely player overnight. Look for lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

Labor Day is expected to be a mostly dry day with fairly steady SW
winds in a tighter pressure gradient between a southern Plains low
and high pressure to our SE. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm, however the pattern seems benign of any real triggers
in the SW flow aloft. The combination of decent amounts of sun and
the warm advective component should bring temperatures back in the
85-90 range.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Models continue to show showers and storms north of our region at
the start of the period, near a front that will make slow progress
toward the region. It is looking more likely that at some point
Tuesday we`ll get another round of heavy rain, as precipitable
waters once again head up to around 2 inches. That rain will come
either as a low-level jet ramps up across southern IN early Tuesday
or with peak heating during the day Tuesday. Thus will ramp up pops
to the 50-70 percent range. Will continue to undercut guidance
temperatures based on this thinking, but readings still should be
above normal.

Models had been portraying Wednesday as a transition day to hotter
and somewhat drier conditions for the rest of the period. However,
the latest GFS doesn`t have as strong of a ridge across our region,
in fact placing a weak upper low over the Wabash Thursday and mid
Ohio River Friday, then another disturbance enhancing rain chances
Saturday. The 12Z Euro hints at these features as well. NOGAPS
ensembles still show the ridge pattern in the mean fields, but the
spread fields are much more wavy, indicative more of these
disturbances being shows in the various ensemble members. Thus will
maintain chances for storms each day. Most likely the above normal
temperatures will continue through the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 649 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A tricky forecast over the next 24 hours as a plume of Gulf moisture
streams through the Ohio Valley ahead of a disturbance embedded in
the deep southwest flow. Widespread rain is now impacting BWG, and
is set to reach LEX by late morning. Expect visibilities to drop
into the MVFR category with this batch of moisture. Ceilings outside
of the rain have been able to find their way into the IFR range at
times, however do expect improvement during the rain showers as low
levels get somewhat mixed by showers. Overall, expect BWG to see
improvement by 1 PM CDT, with widespread showers ending and ceilings
trying to find their way back into the VFR range. LEX should expect
improvement by 3 PM EDT, with only lingering showers and ceilings
hovering on the VFR/MVFR threshold.

SDF should stay more on the northern fringes of the precipitation
shield, with ceilings waffling in and out of IFR until numerous
showers arrive later this morning. Best timing looks to be between
10 AM and 1 PM EDT, before improvement takes over. Ceilings should
find their way back to the VFR range by mid to late afternoon.

Overall winds will generally be out of the south around 10 mph
through this forecast cycle.

Rain will be pretty well gone by tonight, however lingering low
level moisture will bring the threat of low stratus back into the
forecast. Expect at least MVFR ceilings through the overnight hours
as we head into Labor Day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon FOR
     KYZ040>043-046>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 311229
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
829 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Updated Aviation and forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...

Issued at 825 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Updated the forecast to remove a portion of the Flash Flood Watch
from the western and northern Bluegrass, while keeping it intact
across southern Kentucky and the southern Bluegrass. Not much rain
has fallen so far across the Bluegrass and northwest of the
Cumberland Parkway. Through 8 am, total rainfall amounts have
ranged from around 1 to locally over 2 inches across our southern
counties, with one spot in Simpson County receiving over 3 inches.

The bulk of any additional rain will fall across our southern
counties this morning through early afternoon, with an additional
inch or so expected. Showers will be much more sparse across
southern Indiana and southeast of the Ohio River, where, I think,
the bulk of today will be dry.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect for East-Central Kentucky...

Deep southwest flow will continue over the Ohio Valley today as we
remain positioned between troughing over the central CONUS and a
strong SE CONUS ridge. This flow will set the stage for another
impressive plume of moisture riding over the area, ahead of another
disturbance. The threat for heavy rain will continue along and east
of the I-65 corridor today, although all locations are likely to see
rainfall.

Current radar shows the CWA in a relative precipitation lull as the
evening`s initial surge of moisture moves off to the NE, and we
await another round set to arrive around dawn. There are scattered
to numerous light rain showers lingering across the area, especially
along and south of the Ohio River. Expect this to continue through
the pre-dawn hours.

Focus will then shift to the next plume of moisture (characterized
by PWATs in the 2"-2.2" range) ahead of a wave currently near
Memphis. A 30-40 knot low level jet will accompany this feature,
aiding moisture transport through midday east of I-65. Additionally,
have seen some baroclinic leafing on IR satellite over the Wabash
River Valley associated with the right entrance region of an upper
level jet. This will slide east through the morning, overlapping the
best low level moisture surge from the low level jet over the
current Flash Flood Watch area. The end result will be potential for
bands of heavier rainfall setting up along and east of a BWG to LEX
line, where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain (locally higher)
are possible. Embedded thunderstorms are expected with this surge.
Therefore, will extend the Flash Flood Watch to 18z in coordination
with surrounding offices. One thing to note is that models have been
too far west with heaviest rainfall axis to this point. It is
possible that the heaviest axis will end up being further east by 50
to 100 miles if that bias continues. Areas outside of the watch can
expect another quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain through
today.

Will also mention that a few storms could rotate with the LLJ surge
this morning. SPC highlighted where this LLJ core will track with a
2% tornado contour, however surface based instability should be hard
to come by so don`t expect any problems at this point. Just some
food for thought if we do start seeing a few storms rotate. Most
probable area for an issue would be toward the Lake Cumberland
region.

Highs are not expected to budge a whole lot today as the mercury
struggles under heavy cloud cover and precipitation. Will call for
upper 70s NE to low 80s SW.

Precipitation will taper from west to east later this afternoon and
into the evening as the wave pushes east along with the deeper
moisture. Enough low level moisture will linger to leave mention of
an isolated shower through tonight, however most places are likely
to stay dry. Not too concerned about fog at this point since low
stratus seems to be the more likely player overnight. Look for lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

Labor Day is expected to be a mostly dry day with fairly steady SW
winds in a tighter pressure gradient between a southern Plains low
and high pressure to our SE. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm, however the pattern seems benign of any real triggers
in the SW flow aloft. The combination of decent amounts of sun and
the warm advective component should bring temperatures back in the
85-90 range.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Models continue to show showers and storms north of our region at
the start of the period, near a front that will make slow progress
toward the region. It is looking more likely that at some point
Tuesday we`ll get another round of heavy rain, as precipitable
waters once again head up to around 2 inches. That rain will come
either as a low-level jet ramps up across southern IN early Tuesday
or with peak heating during the day Tuesday. Thus will ramp up pops
to the 50-70 percent range. Will continue to undercut guidance
temperatures based on this thinking, but readings still should be
above normal.

Models had been portraying Wednesday as a transition day to hotter
and somewhat drier conditions for the rest of the period. However,
the latest GFS doesn`t have as strong of a ridge across our region,
in fact placing a weak upper low over the Wabash Thursday and mid
Ohio River Friday, then another disturbance enhancing rain chances
Saturday. The 12Z Euro hints at these features as well. NOGAPS
ensembles still show the ridge pattern in the mean fields, but the
spread fields are much more wavy, indicative more of these
disturbances being shows in the various ensemble members. Thus will
maintain chances for storms each day. Most likely the above normal
temperatures will continue through the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 649 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A tricky forecast over the next 24 hours as a plume of Gulf moisture
streams through the Ohio Valley ahead of a disturbance embedded in
the deep southwest flow. Widespread rain is now impacting BWG, and
is set to reach LEX by late morning. Expect visibilities to drop
into the MVFR category with this batch of moisture. Ceilings outside
of the rain have been able to find their way into the IFR range at
times, however do expect improvement during the rain showers as low
levels get somewhat mixed by showers. Overall, expect BWG to see
improvement by 1 PM CDT, with widespread showers ending and ceilings
trying to find their way back into the VFR range. LEX should expect
improvement by 3 PM EDT, with only lingering showers and ceilings
hovering on the VFR/MVFR threshold.

SDF should stay more on the northern fringes of the precipitation
shield, with ceilings waffling in and out of IFR until numerous
showers arrive later this morning. Best timing looks to be between
10 AM and 1 PM EDT, before improvement takes over. Ceilings should
find their way back to the VFR range by mid to late afternoon.

Overall winds will generally be out of the south around 10 mph
through this forecast cycle.

Rain will be pretty well gone by tonight, however lingering low
level moisture will bring the threat of low stratus back into the
forecast. Expect at least MVFR ceilings through the overnight hours
as we head into Labor Day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon FOR
     KYZ040>043-046>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 311048
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect for East-Central Kentucky...

Deep southwest flow will continue over the Ohio Valley today as we
remain positioned between troughing over the central CONUS and a
strong SE CONUS ridge. This flow will set the stage for another
impressive plume of moisture riding over the area, ahead of another
disturbance. The threat for heavy rain will continue along and east
of the I-65 corridor today, although all locations are likely to see
rainfall.

Current radar shows the CWA in a relative precipitation lull as the
evening`s initial surge of moisture moves off to the NE, and we
await another round set to arrive around dawn. There are scattered
to numerous light rain showers lingering across the area, especially
along and south of the Ohio River. Expect this to continue through
the pre-dawn hours.

Focus will then shift to the next plume of moisture (characterized
by PWATs in the 2"-2.2" range) ahead of a wave currently near
Memphis. A 30-40 knot low level jet will accompany this feature,
aiding moisture transport through midday east of I-65. Additionally,
have seen some baroclinic leafing on IR satellite over the Wabash
River Valley associated with the right entrance region of an upper
level jet. This will slide east through the morning, overlapping the
best low level moisture surge from the low level jet over the
current Flash Flood Watch area. The end result will be potential for
bands of heavier rainfall setting up along and east of a BWG to LEX
line, where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain (locally higher)
are possible. Embedded thunderstorms are expected with this surge.
Therefore, will extend the Flash Flood Watch to 18z in coordination
with surrounding offices. One thing to note is that models have been
too far west with heaviest rainfall axis to this point. It is
possible that the heaviest axis will end up being further east by 50
to 100 miles if that bias continues. Areas outside of the watch can
expect another quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain through
today.

Will also mention that a few storms could rotate with the LLJ surge
this morning. SPC highlighted where this LLJ core will track with a
2% tornado contour, however surface based instability should be hard
to come by so don`t expect any problems at this point. Just some
food for thought if we do start seeing a few storms rotate. Most
probable area for an issue would be toward the Lake Cumberland
region.

Highs are not expected to budge a whole lot today as the mercury
struggles under heavy cloud cover and precipitation. Will call for
upper 70s NE to low 80s SW.

Precipitation will taper from west to east later this afternoon and
into the evening as the wave pushes east along with the deeper
moisture. Enough low level moisture will linger to leave mention of
an isolated shower through tonight, however most places are likely
to stay dry. Not too concerned about fog at this point since low
stratus seems to be the more likely player overnight. Look for lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

Labor Day is expected to be a mostly dry day with fairly steady SW
winds in a tighter pressure gradient between a southern Plains low
and high pressure to our SE. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm, however the pattern seems benign of any real triggers
in the SW flow aloft. The combination of decent amounts of sun and
the warm advective component should bring temperatures back in the
85-90 range.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Models continue to show showers and storms north of our region at
the start of the period, near a front that will make slow progress
toward the region. It is looking more likely that at some point
Tuesday we`ll get another round of heavy rain, as precipitable
waters once again head up to around 2 inches. That rain will come
either as a low-level jet ramps up across southern IN early Tuesday
or with peak heating during the day Tuesday. Thus will ramp up pops
to the 50-70 percent range. Will continue to undercut guidance
temperatures based on this thinking, but readings still should be
above normal.

Models had been portraying Wednesday as a transition day to hotter
and somewhat drier conditions for the rest of the period. However,
the latest GFS doesn`t have as strong of a ridge across our region,
in fact placing a weak upper low over the Wabash Thursday and mid
Ohio River Friday, then another disturbance enhancing rain chances
Saturday. The 12Z Euro hints at these features as well. NOGAPS
ensembles still show the ridge pattern in the mean fields, but the
spread fields are much more wavy, indicative more of these
disturbances being shows in the various ensemble members. Thus will
maintain chances for storms each day. Most likely the above normal
temperatures will continue through the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 649 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A tricky forecast over the next 24 hours as a plume of Gulf moisture
streams through the Ohio Valley ahead of a disturbance embedded in
the deep southwest flow. Widespread rain is now impacting BWG, and
is set to reach LEX by late morning. Expect visibilities to drop
into the MVFR category with this batch of moisture. Ceilings outside
of the rain have been able to find their way into the IFR range at
times, however do expect improvement during the rain showers as low
levels get somewhat mixed by showers. Overall, expect BWG to see
improvement by 1 PM CDT, with widespread showers ending and ceilings
trying to find their way back into the VFR range. LEX should expect
improvement by 3 PM EDT, with only lingering showers and ceilings
hovering on the VFR/MVFR threshold.

SDF should stay more on the northern fringes of the precipitation
shield, with ceilings waffling in and out of IFR until numerous
showers arrive later this morning. Best timing looks to be between
10 AM and 1 PM EDT, before improvement takes over. Ceilings should
find their way back to the VFR range by mid to late afternoon.

Overall winds will generally be out of the south around 10 mph
through this forecast cycle.

Rain will be pretty well gone by tonight, however lingering low
level moisture will bring the threat of low stratus back into the
forecast. Expect at least MVFR ceilings through the overnight hours
as we head into Labor Day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon FOR
     KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 311048
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect for East-Central Kentucky...

Deep southwest flow will continue over the Ohio Valley today as we
remain positioned between troughing over the central CONUS and a
strong SE CONUS ridge. This flow will set the stage for another
impressive plume of moisture riding over the area, ahead of another
disturbance. The threat for heavy rain will continue along and east
of the I-65 corridor today, although all locations are likely to see
rainfall.

Current radar shows the CWA in a relative precipitation lull as the
evening`s initial surge of moisture moves off to the NE, and we
await another round set to arrive around dawn. There are scattered
to numerous light rain showers lingering across the area, especially
along and south of the Ohio River. Expect this to continue through
the pre-dawn hours.

Focus will then shift to the next plume of moisture (characterized
by PWATs in the 2"-2.2" range) ahead of a wave currently near
Memphis. A 30-40 knot low level jet will accompany this feature,
aiding moisture transport through midday east of I-65. Additionally,
have seen some baroclinic leafing on IR satellite over the Wabash
River Valley associated with the right entrance region of an upper
level jet. This will slide east through the morning, overlapping the
best low level moisture surge from the low level jet over the
current Flash Flood Watch area. The end result will be potential for
bands of heavier rainfall setting up along and east of a BWG to LEX
line, where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain (locally higher)
are possible. Embedded thunderstorms are expected with this surge.
Therefore, will extend the Flash Flood Watch to 18z in coordination
with surrounding offices. One thing to note is that models have been
too far west with heaviest rainfall axis to this point. It is
possible that the heaviest axis will end up being further east by 50
to 100 miles if that bias continues. Areas outside of the watch can
expect another quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain through
today.

Will also mention that a few storms could rotate with the LLJ surge
this morning. SPC highlighted where this LLJ core will track with a
2% tornado contour, however surface based instability should be hard
to come by so don`t expect any problems at this point. Just some
food for thought if we do start seeing a few storms rotate. Most
probable area for an issue would be toward the Lake Cumberland
region.

Highs are not expected to budge a whole lot today as the mercury
struggles under heavy cloud cover and precipitation. Will call for
upper 70s NE to low 80s SW.

Precipitation will taper from west to east later this afternoon and
into the evening as the wave pushes east along with the deeper
moisture. Enough low level moisture will linger to leave mention of
an isolated shower through tonight, however most places are likely
to stay dry. Not too concerned about fog at this point since low
stratus seems to be the more likely player overnight. Look for lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

Labor Day is expected to be a mostly dry day with fairly steady SW
winds in a tighter pressure gradient between a southern Plains low
and high pressure to our SE. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm, however the pattern seems benign of any real triggers
in the SW flow aloft. The combination of decent amounts of sun and
the warm advective component should bring temperatures back in the
85-90 range.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Models continue to show showers and storms north of our region at
the start of the period, near a front that will make slow progress
toward the region. It is looking more likely that at some point
Tuesday we`ll get another round of heavy rain, as precipitable
waters once again head up to around 2 inches. That rain will come
either as a low-level jet ramps up across southern IN early Tuesday
or with peak heating during the day Tuesday. Thus will ramp up pops
to the 50-70 percent range. Will continue to undercut guidance
temperatures based on this thinking, but readings still should be
above normal.

Models had been portraying Wednesday as a transition day to hotter
and somewhat drier conditions for the rest of the period. However,
the latest GFS doesn`t have as strong of a ridge across our region,
in fact placing a weak upper low over the Wabash Thursday and mid
Ohio River Friday, then another disturbance enhancing rain chances
Saturday. The 12Z Euro hints at these features as well. NOGAPS
ensembles still show the ridge pattern in the mean fields, but the
spread fields are much more wavy, indicative more of these
disturbances being shows in the various ensemble members. Thus will
maintain chances for storms each day. Most likely the above normal
temperatures will continue through the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 649 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A tricky forecast over the next 24 hours as a plume of Gulf moisture
streams through the Ohio Valley ahead of a disturbance embedded in
the deep southwest flow. Widespread rain is now impacting BWG, and
is set to reach LEX by late morning. Expect visibilities to drop
into the MVFR category with this batch of moisture. Ceilings outside
of the rain have been able to find their way into the IFR range at
times, however do expect improvement during the rain showers as low
levels get somewhat mixed by showers. Overall, expect BWG to see
improvement by 1 PM CDT, with widespread showers ending and ceilings
trying to find their way back into the VFR range. LEX should expect
improvement by 3 PM EDT, with only lingering showers and ceilings
hovering on the VFR/MVFR threshold.

SDF should stay more on the northern fringes of the precipitation
shield, with ceilings waffling in and out of IFR until numerous
showers arrive later this morning. Best timing looks to be between
10 AM and 1 PM EDT, before improvement takes over. Ceilings should
find their way back to the VFR range by mid to late afternoon.

Overall winds will generally be out of the south around 10 mph
through this forecast cycle.

Rain will be pretty well gone by tonight, however lingering low
level moisture will bring the threat of low stratus back into the
forecast. Expect at least MVFR ceilings through the overnight hours
as we head into Labor Day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon FOR
     KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 310725
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect for East-Central Kentucky...

Deep southwest flow will continue over the Ohio Valley today as we
remain positioned between troughing over the central CONUS and a
strong SE CONUS ridge. This flow will set the stage for another
impressive plume of moisture riding over the area, ahead of another
disturbance. The threat for heavy rain will continue along and east
of the I-65 corridor today, although all locations are likely to see
rainfall.

Current radar shows the CWA in a relative precipitation lull as the
evening`s initial surge of moisture moves off to the NE, and we
await another round set to arrive around dawn. There are scattered
to numerous light rain showers lingering across the area, especially
along and south of the Ohio River. Expect this to continue through
the pre-dawn hours.

Focus will then shift to the next plume of moisture (characterized
by PWATs in the 2"-2.2" range) ahead of a wave currently near
Memphis. A 30-40 knot low level jet will accompany this feature,
aiding moisture transport through midday east of I-65. Additionally,
have seen some baroclinic leafing on IR satellite over the Wabash
River Valley associated with the right entrance region of an upper
level jet. This will slide east through the morning, overlapping the
best low level moisture surge from the low level jet over the
current Flash Flood Watch area. The end result will be potential for
bands of heavier rainfall setting up along and east of a BWG to LEX
line, where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain (locally higher)
are possible. Embedded thunderstorms are expected with this surge.
Therefore, will extend the Flash Flood Watch to 18z in coordination
with surrounding offices. One thing to note is that models have been
too far west with heaviest rainfall axis to this point. It is
possible that the heaviest axis will end up being further east by 50
to 100 miles if that bias continues. Areas outside of the watch can
expect another quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain through
today.

Will also mention that a few storms could rotate with the LLJ surge
this morning. SPC highlighted where this LLJ core will track with a
2% tornado contour, however surface based instability should be hard
to come by so don`t expect any problems at this point. Just some
food for thought if we do start seeing a few storms rotate. Most
probable area for an issue would be toward the Lake Cumberland
region.

Highs are not expected to budge a whole lot today as the mercury
struggles under heavy cloud cover and precipitation. Will call for
upper 70s NE to low 80s SW.

Precipitation will taper from west to east later this afternoon and
into the evening as the wave pushes east along with the deeper
moisture. Enough low level moisture will linger to leave mention of
an isolated shower through tonight, however most places are likely
to stay dry. Not too concerned about fog at this point since low
stratus seems to be the more likely player overnight. Look for lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

Labor Day is expected to be a mostly dry day with fairly steady SW
winds in a tighter pressure gradient between a southern Plains low
and high pressure to our SE. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm, however the pattern seems benign of any real triggers
in the SW flow aloft. The combination of decent amounts of sun and
the warm advective component should bring temperatures back in the
85-90 range.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Models continue to show showers and storms north of our region at
the start of the period, near a front that will make slow progress
toward the region. It is looking more likely that at some point
Tuesday we`ll get another round of heavy rain, as precipitable
waters once again head up to around 2 inches. That rain will come
either as a low-level jet ramps up across southern IN early Tuesday
or with peak heating during the day Tuesday. Thus will ramp up pops
to the 50-70 percent range. Will continue to undercut guidance
temperatures based on this thinking, but readings still should be
above normal.

Models had been portraying Wednesday as a transition day to hotter
and somewhat drier conditions for the rest of the period. However,
the latest GFS doesn`t have as strong of a ridge across our region,
in fact placing a weak upper low over the Wabash Thursday and mid
Ohio River Friday, then another disturbance enhancing rain chances
Saturday. The 12Z Euro hints at these features as well. NOGAPS
ensembles still show the ridge pattern in the mean fields, but the
spread fields are much more wavy, indicative more of these
disturbances being shows in the various ensemble members. Thus will
maintain chances for storms each day. Most likely the above normal
temperatures will continue through the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A tricky forecast over the next 24 hours as plumes of Gulf moisture
stream through the Ohio Valley ahead of individual disturbances
embedded in the deep southwest flow. Current conditions are ranging
from VFR at SDF on the north side of the precipitation shield, to
IFR at BWG/LEX more into the deep moisture. Biggest challenge will
be to forecast ceilings in the lull between this plume of moisture
and the next that is expected to arrive toward dawn. Guidance would
suggest VFR until that time, but the current obs are a different
story. Will monitor the situation and make a decision when TAFs are
issued in a half an hour.

Expecting another wave of widespread showers and embedded thunder to
roll into the TAF sites around dawn at SDF/BWG, and through the late
morning hours at LEX. This will be in response to another
disturbance currently over eastern AR/western TN and a low level jet
around 30-40 knots. Have tried to time this out at each site, with
low MVFR or possibly brief IFR visibilities in moderate or heavy
rain. Additionally, ceilings should drop solidly into the MVFR
range, and potentially IFR.

Expect solid MVFR ceilings to persist at BWG/SDF through mid
afternoon, before some improvement as deepest moisture exits. LEX
could stay MVFR through the end of this forecast cycle.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today FOR
     KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 310725
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect for East-Central Kentucky...

Deep southwest flow will continue over the Ohio Valley today as we
remain positioned between troughing over the central CONUS and a
strong SE CONUS ridge. This flow will set the stage for another
impressive plume of moisture riding over the area, ahead of another
disturbance. The threat for heavy rain will continue along and east
of the I-65 corridor today, although all locations are likely to see
rainfall.

Current radar shows the CWA in a relative precipitation lull as the
evening`s initial surge of moisture moves off to the NE, and we
await another round set to arrive around dawn. There are scattered
to numerous light rain showers lingering across the area, especially
along and south of the Ohio River. Expect this to continue through
the pre-dawn hours.

Focus will then shift to the next plume of moisture (characterized
by PWATs in the 2"-2.2" range) ahead of a wave currently near
Memphis. A 30-40 knot low level jet will accompany this feature,
aiding moisture transport through midday east of I-65. Additionally,
have seen some baroclinic leafing on IR satellite over the Wabash
River Valley associated with the right entrance region of an upper
level jet. This will slide east through the morning, overlapping the
best low level moisture surge from the low level jet over the
current Flash Flood Watch area. The end result will be potential for
bands of heavier rainfall setting up along and east of a BWG to LEX
line, where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain (locally higher)
are possible. Embedded thunderstorms are expected with this surge.
Therefore, will extend the Flash Flood Watch to 18z in coordination
with surrounding offices. One thing to note is that models have been
too far west with heaviest rainfall axis to this point. It is
possible that the heaviest axis will end up being further east by 50
to 100 miles if that bias continues. Areas outside of the watch can
expect another quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain through
today.

Will also mention that a few storms could rotate with the LLJ surge
this morning. SPC highlighted where this LLJ core will track with a
2% tornado contour, however surface based instability should be hard
to come by so don`t expect any problems at this point. Just some
food for thought if we do start seeing a few storms rotate. Most
probable area for an issue would be toward the Lake Cumberland
region.

Highs are not expected to budge a whole lot today as the mercury
struggles under heavy cloud cover and precipitation. Will call for
upper 70s NE to low 80s SW.

Precipitation will taper from west to east later this afternoon and
into the evening as the wave pushes east along with the deeper
moisture. Enough low level moisture will linger to leave mention of
an isolated shower through tonight, however most places are likely
to stay dry. Not too concerned about fog at this point since low
stratus seems to be the more likely player overnight. Look for lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

Labor Day is expected to be a mostly dry day with fairly steady SW
winds in a tighter pressure gradient between a southern Plains low
and high pressure to our SE. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm, however the pattern seems benign of any real triggers
in the SW flow aloft. The combination of decent amounts of sun and
the warm advective component should bring temperatures back in the
85-90 range.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Models continue to show showers and storms north of our region at
the start of the period, near a front that will make slow progress
toward the region. It is looking more likely that at some point
Tuesday we`ll get another round of heavy rain, as precipitable
waters once again head up to around 2 inches. That rain will come
either as a low-level jet ramps up across southern IN early Tuesday
or with peak heating during the day Tuesday. Thus will ramp up pops
to the 50-70 percent range. Will continue to undercut guidance
temperatures based on this thinking, but readings still should be
above normal.

Models had been portraying Wednesday as a transition day to hotter
and somewhat drier conditions for the rest of the period. However,
the latest GFS doesn`t have as strong of a ridge across our region,
in fact placing a weak upper low over the Wabash Thursday and mid
Ohio River Friday, then another disturbance enhancing rain chances
Saturday. The 12Z Euro hints at these features as well. NOGAPS
ensembles still show the ridge pattern in the mean fields, but the
spread fields are much more wavy, indicative more of these
disturbances being shows in the various ensemble members. Thus will
maintain chances for storms each day. Most likely the above normal
temperatures will continue through the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A tricky forecast over the next 24 hours as plumes of Gulf moisture
stream through the Ohio Valley ahead of individual disturbances
embedded in the deep southwest flow. Current conditions are ranging
from VFR at SDF on the north side of the precipitation shield, to
IFR at BWG/LEX more into the deep moisture. Biggest challenge will
be to forecast ceilings in the lull between this plume of moisture
and the next that is expected to arrive toward dawn. Guidance would
suggest VFR until that time, but the current obs are a different
story. Will monitor the situation and make a decision when TAFs are
issued in a half an hour.

Expecting another wave of widespread showers and embedded thunder to
roll into the TAF sites around dawn at SDF/BWG, and through the late
morning hours at LEX. This will be in response to another
disturbance currently over eastern AR/western TN and a low level jet
around 30-40 knots. Have tried to time this out at each site, with
low MVFR or possibly brief IFR visibilities in moderate or heavy
rain. Additionally, ceilings should drop solidly into the MVFR
range, and potentially IFR.

Expect solid MVFR ceilings to persist at BWG/SDF through mid
afternoon, before some improvement as deepest moisture exits. LEX
could stay MVFR through the end of this forecast cycle.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today FOR
     KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 310512
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
112 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

A large amount of convection continues to move northeastward this
evening.  Mid-level wave rotating NE through NW Mississippi will
continue to move northeastward overnight.  This will push an area of
convection from middle Tennessee into central and eastern KY
tonight.  Additional convection is likely to develop later tonight
on the heels of the nocturnal low-level jet.  Some evidence of this
is already showing up SW of Memphis.  The 31/00Z NAM suggest that
the axis of heaviest rainfall would fall along and just south of the
Ohio River.  However, this model has tended to be a little to N/NW
with its heavy rain placements this summer.  Thus, feel that the
highest risk of heavy rains will be a little further south/east
where we have the Flash Flood Watch placed.  Widespread 1-1.5 inch
amounts will be possible across the watch area...though some places
that have training of cells could pick up as much as 3-4 inches.

A sharp gradient in PoP is likely further NW of the watch.  However,
some additional activity along the aforementioned low-level jet may
push rains a bit further north and northwest into NW KY and southern
Indiana tonight.  However, rainfall amounts in this area will be
generally less than 1 inch.

Update issued at 825 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Convection continues to intensify over the Tennessee Plateau area
this evening ahead of an approaching mid-level wave.  Large area of
torrential rainfall has been observed over middle Tennessee this
evening and this activity will spread northeastward into portions of
central Kentucky overnight.  After coordination with surrounding
offices have gone with a flash flood watch for the eastern half of
the forecast area.  Widespread 1-2 inch rainfall amounts are
expected.  However, areas that see repeated rainfall could see
upwards of 3-4 inches.  Will be updating the rest of the product
suite shortly to account for the watch.  Watch product has already
been issued.

Update issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Tropical moisture plume is becoming more defined this evening.  This
feature will bring rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms to
the region this evening and overnight.  With such ample moisture in
place, torrential rainfall will be the main weather hazard with this
activity.  Several mid-level perturbations were evident in radar
imagery and satellite imagery.  The first one is currently moving NE
out of the region while a second and stronger one is rotating NE
through Mississippi.  This second wave is inducing stronger
convection from north-central AL into middle Tennessee.  This
activity will move northward into southern KY shortly and affect
areas mainly east of I-65 and along and west of I-75.

Moist adiabatic profiles are likely to keep severe weather risks
relatively low this evening.  However, decent precipitation loading
will likely lead to low-centroid cells to develop capable of
producing torrential/tropical rainfall.  While basin averages will
likely range from a half to one and a half inches, areas that see
repeated rainfall could see upwards of 2-3 inches locally which
would result in local hydrologic issues.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture easily visible on regional satellite
and radar loops has been streaming northward up the lower
Mississippi Valley today. Small waves are embedded within this
moisture, with one moving into west Tennessee and the other crossing
northern Louisiana this afternoon. The moisture and its embedded
waves will continue to push to the north and northeast,
overspreading southern Indiana and especially central Kentucky
tonight and Sunday.  As a result, we can expect widespread showers
along with enough instability for some embedded thunder.  The
wettest time period will be from late tonight into Sunday morning.
Showers will become more scattered from southwest to northeast
Sunday afternoon.  Coverage will taper off even more Sunday night as
the deep moisture moves off to the northeast.

Precipitable water values will be in the 2 to 2.4 inch range through
Sunday, with K Index values solidly in the middle 30s.  We`ll have
some dynamic assistance from an increasing low level jet and from
being situated near the right entrance region of the upper jet.  It
looks like general rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be
possible in central Kentucky, especially along a corridor from
Bowling Green to Lexington.  Lesser amounts (one-half to one inch)
in southern Indiana.  The individual showers and thunderstorms will
have a progressive forward movement, but training will be a
concern.  Spots that get stuck under narrow bands of heavier
rainfall could see three inches of precipitation.  Any flooding is
expected to be minor given 6-hour flash flood guidance values of two
to four inches.  The best chance for flooding will be in urban areas
and along small streams.

Bowling Green will end up with its wettest August on record, and
Lexington has a shot at their wettest August as well.  Louisville
will end up somewhere in the top ten.

Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night should be around 70.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs tomorrow with all the
clouds and rain.  Got burned on the high temp forecast on a
similarly rainy day a couple of weeks ago when highs were only in
the 70s.  For now will go for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
though the final answer will depend on just how much we can manage
to dry out Sunday afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise further.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern Plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it moves
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states late
Tuesday will build northward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A tricky forecast over the next 24 hours as plumes of Gulf moisture
stream through the Ohio Valley ahead of individual disturbances
embedded in the deep southwest flow. Current conditions are ranging
from VFR at SDF on the north side of the precipitation shield, to
IFR at BWG/LEX more into the deep moisture. Biggest challenge will
be to forecast ceilings in the lull between this plume of moisture
and the next that is expected to arrive toward dawn. Guidance would
suggest VFR until that time, but the current obs are a different
story. Will monitor the situation and make a decision when TAFs are
issued in a half an hour.

Expecting another wave of widespread showers and embedded thunder to
roll into the TAF sites around dawn at SDF/BWG, and through the late
morning hours at LEX. This will be in response to another
disturbance currently over eastern AR/western TN and a low level jet
around 30-40 knots. Have tried to time this out at each site, with
low MVFR or possibly brief IFR visibilities in moderate or heavy
rain. Additionally, ceilings should drop solidly into the MVFR
range, and potentially IFR.

Expect solid MVFR ceilings to persist at BWG/SDF through mid
afternoon, before some improvement as deepest moisture exits. LEX
could stay MVFR through the end of this forecast cycle.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today FOR
     KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 310512
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
112 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

A large amount of convection continues to move northeastward this
evening.  Mid-level wave rotating NE through NW Mississippi will
continue to move northeastward overnight.  This will push an area of
convection from middle Tennessee into central and eastern KY
tonight.  Additional convection is likely to develop later tonight
on the heels of the nocturnal low-level jet.  Some evidence of this
is already showing up SW of Memphis.  The 31/00Z NAM suggest that
the axis of heaviest rainfall would fall along and just south of the
Ohio River.  However, this model has tended to be a little to N/NW
with its heavy rain placements this summer.  Thus, feel that the
highest risk of heavy rains will be a little further south/east
where we have the Flash Flood Watch placed.  Widespread 1-1.5 inch
amounts will be possible across the watch area...though some places
that have training of cells could pick up as much as 3-4 inches.

A sharp gradient in PoP is likely further NW of the watch.  However,
some additional activity along the aforementioned low-level jet may
push rains a bit further north and northwest into NW KY and southern
Indiana tonight.  However, rainfall amounts in this area will be
generally less than 1 inch.

Update issued at 825 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Convection continues to intensify over the Tennessee Plateau area
this evening ahead of an approaching mid-level wave.  Large area of
torrential rainfall has been observed over middle Tennessee this
evening and this activity will spread northeastward into portions of
central Kentucky overnight.  After coordination with surrounding
offices have gone with a flash flood watch for the eastern half of
the forecast area.  Widespread 1-2 inch rainfall amounts are
expected.  However, areas that see repeated rainfall could see
upwards of 3-4 inches.  Will be updating the rest of the product
suite shortly to account for the watch.  Watch product has already
been issued.

Update issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Tropical moisture plume is becoming more defined this evening.  This
feature will bring rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms to
the region this evening and overnight.  With such ample moisture in
place, torrential rainfall will be the main weather hazard with this
activity.  Several mid-level perturbations were evident in radar
imagery and satellite imagery.  The first one is currently moving NE
out of the region while a second and stronger one is rotating NE
through Mississippi.  This second wave is inducing stronger
convection from north-central AL into middle Tennessee.  This
activity will move northward into southern KY shortly and affect
areas mainly east of I-65 and along and west of I-75.

Moist adiabatic profiles are likely to keep severe weather risks
relatively low this evening.  However, decent precipitation loading
will likely lead to low-centroid cells to develop capable of
producing torrential/tropical rainfall.  While basin averages will
likely range from a half to one and a half inches, areas that see
repeated rainfall could see upwards of 2-3 inches locally which
would result in local hydrologic issues.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture easily visible on regional satellite
and radar loops has been streaming northward up the lower
Mississippi Valley today. Small waves are embedded within this
moisture, with one moving into west Tennessee and the other crossing
northern Louisiana this afternoon. The moisture and its embedded
waves will continue to push to the north and northeast,
overspreading southern Indiana and especially central Kentucky
tonight and Sunday.  As a result, we can expect widespread showers
along with enough instability for some embedded thunder.  The
wettest time period will be from late tonight into Sunday morning.
Showers will become more scattered from southwest to northeast
Sunday afternoon.  Coverage will taper off even more Sunday night as
the deep moisture moves off to the northeast.

Precipitable water values will be in the 2 to 2.4 inch range through
Sunday, with K Index values solidly in the middle 30s.  We`ll have
some dynamic assistance from an increasing low level jet and from
being situated near the right entrance region of the upper jet.  It
looks like general rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be
possible in central Kentucky, especially along a corridor from
Bowling Green to Lexington.  Lesser amounts (one-half to one inch)
in southern Indiana.  The individual showers and thunderstorms will
have a progressive forward movement, but training will be a
concern.  Spots that get stuck under narrow bands of heavier
rainfall could see three inches of precipitation.  Any flooding is
expected to be minor given 6-hour flash flood guidance values of two
to four inches.  The best chance for flooding will be in urban areas
and along small streams.

Bowling Green will end up with its wettest August on record, and
Lexington has a shot at their wettest August as well.  Louisville
will end up somewhere in the top ten.

Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night should be around 70.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs tomorrow with all the
clouds and rain.  Got burned on the high temp forecast on a
similarly rainy day a couple of weeks ago when highs were only in
the 70s.  For now will go for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
though the final answer will depend on just how much we can manage
to dry out Sunday afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise further.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern Plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it moves
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states late
Tuesday will build northward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

A tricky forecast over the next 24 hours as plumes of Gulf moisture
stream through the Ohio Valley ahead of individual disturbances
embedded in the deep southwest flow. Current conditions are ranging
from VFR at SDF on the north side of the precipitation shield, to
IFR at BWG/LEX more into the deep moisture. Biggest challenge will
be to forecast ceilings in the lull between this plume of moisture
and the next that is expected to arrive toward dawn. Guidance would
suggest VFR until that time, but the current obs are a different
story. Will monitor the situation and make a decision when TAFs are
issued in a half an hour.

Expecting another wave of widespread showers and embedded thunder to
roll into the TAF sites around dawn at SDF/BWG, and through the late
morning hours at LEX. This will be in response to another
disturbance currently over eastern AR/western TN and a low level jet
around 30-40 knots. Have tried to time this out at each site, with
low MVFR or possibly brief IFR visibilities in moderate or heavy
rain. Additionally, ceilings should drop solidly into the MVFR
range, and potentially IFR.

Expect solid MVFR ceilings to persist at BWG/SDF through mid
afternoon, before some improvement as deepest moisture exits. LEX
could stay MVFR through the end of this forecast cycle.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today FOR
     KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 310255
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1055 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

A large amount of convection continues to move northeastward this
evening.  Mid-level wave rotating NE through NW Mississippi will
continue to move northeastward overnight.  This will push an area of
convection from middle Tennessee into central and eastern KY
tonight.  Additional convection is likely to develop later tonight
on the heels of the nocturnal low-level jet.  Some evidence of this
is already showing up SW of Memphis.  The 31/00Z NAM suggest that
the axis of heaviest rainfall would fall along and just south of the
Ohio River.  However, this model has tended to be a little to N/NW
with its heavy rain placements this summer.  Thus, feel that the
highest risk of heavy rains will be a little further south/east
where we have the Flash Flood Watch placed.  Widespread 1-1.5 inch
amounts will be possible across the watch area...though some places
that have training of cells could pick up as much as 3-4 inches.

A sharp gradient in PoP is likely further NW of the watch.  However,
some additional activity along the aforementioned low-level jet may
push rains a bit further north and northwest into NW KY and southern
Indiana tonight.  However, rainfall amounts in this area will be
generally less than 1 inch.

Update issued at 825 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Convection continues to intensify over the Tennessee Plateau area
this evening ahead of an approaching mid-level wave.  Large area of
torrential rainfall has been observed over middle Tennessee this
evening and this activity will spread northeastward into portions of
central Kentucky overnight.  After coordination with surrounding
offices have gone with a flash flood watch for the eastern half of
the forecast area.  Widespread 1-2 inch rainfall amounts are
expected.  However, areas that see repeated rainfall could see
upwards of 3-4 inches.  Will be updating the rest of the product
suite shortly to account for the watch.  Watch product has already
been issued.

Update issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Tropical moisture plume is becoming more defined this evening.  This
feature will bring rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms to
the region this evening and overnight.  With such ample moisture in
place, torrential rainfall will be the main weather hazard with this
activity.  Several mid-level perturbations were evident in radar
imagery and satellite imagery.  The first one is currently moving NE
out of the region while a second and stronger one is rotating NE
through Mississippi.  This second wave is inducing stronger
convection from north-central AL into middle Tennessee.  This
activity will move northward into southern KY shortly and affect
areas mainly east of I-65 and along and west of I-75.

Moist adiabatic profiles are likely to keep severe weather risks
relatively low this evening.  However, decent precipitation loading
will likely lead to low-centroid cells to develop capable of
producing torrential/tropical rainfall.  While basin averages will
likely range from a half to one and a half inches, areas that see
repeated rainfall could see upwards of 2-3 inches locally which
would result in local hydrologic issues.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture easily visible on regional satellite
and radar loops has been streaming northward up the lower
Mississippi Valley today. Small waves are embedded within this
moisture, with one moving into west Tennessee and the other crossing
northern Louisiana this afternoon. The moisture and its embedded
waves will continue to push to the north and northeast,
overspreading southern Indiana and especially central Kentucky
tonight and Sunday.  As a result, we can expect widespread showers
along with enough instability for some embedded thunder.  The
wettest time period will be from late tonight into Sunday morning.
Showers will become more scattered from southwest to northeast
Sunday afternoon.  Coverage will taper off even more Sunday night as
the deep moisture moves off to the northeast.

Precipitable water values will be in the 2 to 2.4 inch range through
Sunday, with K Index values solidly in the middle 30s.  We`ll have
some dynamic assistance from an increasing low level jet and from
being situated near the right entrance region of the upper jet.  It
looks like general rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be
possible in central Kentucky, especially along a corridor from
Bowling Green to Lexington.  Lesser amounts (one-half to one inch)
in southern Indiana.  The individual showers and thunderstorms will
have a progressive forward movement, but training will be a
concern.  Spots that get stuck under narrow bands of heavier
rainfall could see three inches of precipitation.  Any flooding is
expected to be minor given 6-hour flash flood guidance values of two
to four inches.  The best chance for flooding will be in urban areas
and along small streams.

Bowling Green will end up with its wettest August on record, and
Lexington has a shot at their wettest August as well.  Louisville
will end up somewhere in the top ten.

Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night should be around 70.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs tomorrow with all the
clouds and rain.  Got burned on the high temp forecast on a
similarly rainy day a couple of weeks ago when highs were only in
the 70s.  For now will go for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
though the final answer will depend on just how much we can manage
to dry out Sunday afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise further.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern Plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it moves
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states late
Tuesday will build northward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Plume of tropical moisture streaming up from the Mississippi Valley
will set the stage for periods of showers with some embedded
thunderstorms for much of the TAF period.  Initial lead wave is
moving NE of the region this evening.  However, second wave is now
moving up from MS/AL and this will affect the terminals this evening
and into the overnight period.  A third wave down along the gulf
coast will impact the region later on Sunday morning.

For the evening/overnight period, expect low end VFR to high end
MVFR conditions at the terminals.  It appears best chances of
thunder will be at KBWG and KLEX this evening as stronger wave pulls
northward out of Tennessee.  While MVFR conditions are expected to
prevail...short term drops into IFR or even into LIFR will be
possible as showers/storms pass through the terminals.  Based on
current trajectories, feel that KSDF will likely see light/moderate
rain at times this evening and overnight, but conditions will likely
remain MVFR with a lesser risk of IFR/LIFR conditions.  Winds
overnight will remain out of the south with speeds less than 8kts.
Some occasional higher gusts may be possible within convection.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-
     053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 310255
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1055 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

A large amount of convection continues to move northeastward this
evening.  Mid-level wave rotating NE through NW Mississippi will
continue to move northeastward overnight.  This will push an area of
convection from middle Tennessee into central and eastern KY
tonight.  Additional convection is likely to develop later tonight
on the heels of the nocturnal low-level jet.  Some evidence of this
is already showing up SW of Memphis.  The 31/00Z NAM suggest that
the axis of heaviest rainfall would fall along and just south of the
Ohio River.  However, this model has tended to be a little to N/NW
with its heavy rain placements this summer.  Thus, feel that the
highest risk of heavy rains will be a little further south/east
where we have the Flash Flood Watch placed.  Widespread 1-1.5 inch
amounts will be possible across the watch area...though some places
that have training of cells could pick up as much as 3-4 inches.

A sharp gradient in PoP is likely further NW of the watch.  However,
some additional activity along the aforementioned low-level jet may
push rains a bit further north and northwest into NW KY and southern
Indiana tonight.  However, rainfall amounts in this area will be
generally less than 1 inch.

Update issued at 825 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Convection continues to intensify over the Tennessee Plateau area
this evening ahead of an approaching mid-level wave.  Large area of
torrential rainfall has been observed over middle Tennessee this
evening and this activity will spread northeastward into portions of
central Kentucky overnight.  After coordination with surrounding
offices have gone with a flash flood watch for the eastern half of
the forecast area.  Widespread 1-2 inch rainfall amounts are
expected.  However, areas that see repeated rainfall could see
upwards of 3-4 inches.  Will be updating the rest of the product
suite shortly to account for the watch.  Watch product has already
been issued.

Update issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Tropical moisture plume is becoming more defined this evening.  This
feature will bring rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms to
the region this evening and overnight.  With such ample moisture in
place, torrential rainfall will be the main weather hazard with this
activity.  Several mid-level perturbations were evident in radar
imagery and satellite imagery.  The first one is currently moving NE
out of the region while a second and stronger one is rotating NE
through Mississippi.  This second wave is inducing stronger
convection from north-central AL into middle Tennessee.  This
activity will move northward into southern KY shortly and affect
areas mainly east of I-65 and along and west of I-75.

Moist adiabatic profiles are likely to keep severe weather risks
relatively low this evening.  However, decent precipitation loading
will likely lead to low-centroid cells to develop capable of
producing torrential/tropical rainfall.  While basin averages will
likely range from a half to one and a half inches, areas that see
repeated rainfall could see upwards of 2-3 inches locally which
would result in local hydrologic issues.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture easily visible on regional satellite
and radar loops has been streaming northward up the lower
Mississippi Valley today. Small waves are embedded within this
moisture, with one moving into west Tennessee and the other crossing
northern Louisiana this afternoon. The moisture and its embedded
waves will continue to push to the north and northeast,
overspreading southern Indiana and especially central Kentucky
tonight and Sunday.  As a result, we can expect widespread showers
along with enough instability for some embedded thunder.  The
wettest time period will be from late tonight into Sunday morning.
Showers will become more scattered from southwest to northeast
Sunday afternoon.  Coverage will taper off even more Sunday night as
the deep moisture moves off to the northeast.

Precipitable water values will be in the 2 to 2.4 inch range through
Sunday, with K Index values solidly in the middle 30s.  We`ll have
some dynamic assistance from an increasing low level jet and from
being situated near the right entrance region of the upper jet.  It
looks like general rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be
possible in central Kentucky, especially along a corridor from
Bowling Green to Lexington.  Lesser amounts (one-half to one inch)
in southern Indiana.  The individual showers and thunderstorms will
have a progressive forward movement, but training will be a
concern.  Spots that get stuck under narrow bands of heavier
rainfall could see three inches of precipitation.  Any flooding is
expected to be minor given 6-hour flash flood guidance values of two
to four inches.  The best chance for flooding will be in urban areas
and along small streams.

Bowling Green will end up with its wettest August on record, and
Lexington has a shot at their wettest August as well.  Louisville
will end up somewhere in the top ten.

Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night should be around 70.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs tomorrow with all the
clouds and rain.  Got burned on the high temp forecast on a
similarly rainy day a couple of weeks ago when highs were only in
the 70s.  For now will go for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
though the final answer will depend on just how much we can manage
to dry out Sunday afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise further.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern Plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it moves
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states late
Tuesday will build northward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Plume of tropical moisture streaming up from the Mississippi Valley
will set the stage for periods of showers with some embedded
thunderstorms for much of the TAF period.  Initial lead wave is
moving NE of the region this evening.  However, second wave is now
moving up from MS/AL and this will affect the terminals this evening
and into the overnight period.  A third wave down along the gulf
coast will impact the region later on Sunday morning.

For the evening/overnight period, expect low end VFR to high end
MVFR conditions at the terminals.  It appears best chances of
thunder will be at KBWG and KLEX this evening as stronger wave pulls
northward out of Tennessee.  While MVFR conditions are expected to
prevail...short term drops into IFR or even into LIFR will be
possible as showers/storms pass through the terminals.  Based on
current trajectories, feel that KSDF will likely see light/moderate
rain at times this evening and overnight, but conditions will likely
remain MVFR with a lesser risk of IFR/LIFR conditions.  Winds
overnight will remain out of the south with speeds less than 8kts.
Some occasional higher gusts may be possible within convection.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-
     053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 310026
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
826 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Convection continues to intensify over the Tennessee Plateau area
this evening ahead of an approaching mid-level wave.  Large area of
torrential rainfall has been observed over middle Tennessee this
evening and this activity will spread northeastward into portions of
central Kentucky overnight.  After coordination with surrounding
offices have gone with a flash flood watch for the eastern half of
the forecast area.  Widespread 1-2 inch rainfall amounts are
expected.  However, areas that see repeated rainfall could see
upwards of 3-4 inches.  Will be updating the rest of the product
suite shortly to account for the watch.  Watch product has already
been issued.

Update issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Tropical moisture plume is becoming more defined this evening.  This
feature will bring rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms to
the region this evening and overnight.  With such ample moisture in
place, torrential rainfall will be the main weather hazard with this
activity.  Several mid-level perturbations were evident in radar
imagery and satellite imagery.  The first one is currently moving NE
out of the region while a second and stronger one is rotating NE
through Mississippi.  This second wave is inducing stronger
convection from north-central AL into middle Tennessee.  This
activity will move northward into southern KY shortly and affect
areas mainly east of I-65 and along and west of I-75.

Moist adiabatic profiles are likely to keep severe weather risks
relatively low this evening.  However, decent precipitation loading
will likely lead to low-centroid cells to develop capable of
producing torrential/tropical rainfall.  While basin averages will
likely range from a half to one and a half inches, areas that see
repeated rainfall could see upwards of 2-3 inches locally which
would result in local hydrologic issues.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture easily visible on regional satellite
and radar loops has been streaming northward up the lower
Mississippi Valley today. Small waves are embedded within this
moisture, with one moving into west Tennessee and the other crossing
northern Louisiana this afternoon. The moisture and its embedded
waves will continue to push to the north and northeast,
overspreading southern Indiana and especially central Kentucky
tonight and Sunday.  As a result, we can expect widespread showers
along with enough instability for some embedded thunder.  The
wettest time period will be from late tonight into Sunday morning.
Showers will become more scattered from southwest to northeast
Sunday afternoon.  Coverage will taper off even more Sunday night as
the deep moisture moves off to the northeast.

Precipitable water values will be in the 2 to 2.4 inch range through
Sunday, with K Index values solidly in the middle 30s.  We`ll have
some dynamic assistance from an increasing low level jet and from
being situated near the right entrance region of the upper jet.  It
looks like general rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be
possible in central Kentucky, especially along a corridor from
Bowling Green to Lexington.  Lesser amounts (one-half to one inch)
in southern Indiana.  The individual showers and thunderstorms will
have a progressive forward movement, but training will be a
concern.  Spots that get stuck under narrow bands of heavier
rainfall could see three inches of precipitation.  Any flooding is
expected to be minor given 6-hour flash flood guidance values of two
to four inches.  The best chance for flooding will be in urban areas
and along small streams.

Bowling Green will end up with its wettest August on record, and
Lexington has a shot at their wettest August as well.  Louisville
will end up somewhere in the top ten.

Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night should be around 70.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs tomorrow with all the
clouds and rain.  Got burned on the high temp forecast on a
similarly rainy day a couple of weeks ago when highs were only in
the 70s.  For now will go for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
though the final answer will depend on just how much we can manage
to dry out Sunday afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise further.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern Plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it moves
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states late
Tuesday will build northward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Plume of tropical moisture streaming up from the Mississippi Valley
will set the stage for periods of showers with some embedded
thunderstorms for much of the TAF period.  Initial lead wave is
moving NE of the region this evening.  However, second wave is now
moving up from MS/AL and this will affect the terminals this evening
and into the overnight period.  A third wave down along the gulf
coast will impact the region later on Sunday morning.

For the evening/overnight period, expect low end VFR to high end
MVFR conditions at the terminals.  It appears best chances of
thunder will be at KBWG and KLEX this evening as stronger wave pulls
northward out of Tennessee.  While MVFR conditions are expected to
prevail...short term drops into IFR or even into LIFR will be
possible as showers/storms pass through the terminals.  Based on
current trajectories, feel that KSDF will likely see light/moderate
rain at times this evening and overnight, but conditions will likely
remain MVFR with a lesser risk of IFR/LIFR conditions.  Winds
overnight will remain out of the south with speeds less than 8kts.
Some occasional higher gusts may be possible within convection.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-
     053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 310026
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
826 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Convection continues to intensify over the Tennessee Plateau area
this evening ahead of an approaching mid-level wave.  Large area of
torrential rainfall has been observed over middle Tennessee this
evening and this activity will spread northeastward into portions of
central Kentucky overnight.  After coordination with surrounding
offices have gone with a flash flood watch for the eastern half of
the forecast area.  Widespread 1-2 inch rainfall amounts are
expected.  However, areas that see repeated rainfall could see
upwards of 3-4 inches.  Will be updating the rest of the product
suite shortly to account for the watch.  Watch product has already
been issued.

Update issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Tropical moisture plume is becoming more defined this evening.  This
feature will bring rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms to
the region this evening and overnight.  With such ample moisture in
place, torrential rainfall will be the main weather hazard with this
activity.  Several mid-level perturbations were evident in radar
imagery and satellite imagery.  The first one is currently moving NE
out of the region while a second and stronger one is rotating NE
through Mississippi.  This second wave is inducing stronger
convection from north-central AL into middle Tennessee.  This
activity will move northward into southern KY shortly and affect
areas mainly east of I-65 and along and west of I-75.

Moist adiabatic profiles are likely to keep severe weather risks
relatively low this evening.  However, decent precipitation loading
will likely lead to low-centroid cells to develop capable of
producing torrential/tropical rainfall.  While basin averages will
likely range from a half to one and a half inches, areas that see
repeated rainfall could see upwards of 2-3 inches locally which
would result in local hydrologic issues.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture easily visible on regional satellite
and radar loops has been streaming northward up the lower
Mississippi Valley today. Small waves are embedded within this
moisture, with one moving into west Tennessee and the other crossing
northern Louisiana this afternoon. The moisture and its embedded
waves will continue to push to the north and northeast,
overspreading southern Indiana and especially central Kentucky
tonight and Sunday.  As a result, we can expect widespread showers
along with enough instability for some embedded thunder.  The
wettest time period will be from late tonight into Sunday morning.
Showers will become more scattered from southwest to northeast
Sunday afternoon.  Coverage will taper off even more Sunday night as
the deep moisture moves off to the northeast.

Precipitable water values will be in the 2 to 2.4 inch range through
Sunday, with K Index values solidly in the middle 30s.  We`ll have
some dynamic assistance from an increasing low level jet and from
being situated near the right entrance region of the upper jet.  It
looks like general rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be
possible in central Kentucky, especially along a corridor from
Bowling Green to Lexington.  Lesser amounts (one-half to one inch)
in southern Indiana.  The individual showers and thunderstorms will
have a progressive forward movement, but training will be a
concern.  Spots that get stuck under narrow bands of heavier
rainfall could see three inches of precipitation.  Any flooding is
expected to be minor given 6-hour flash flood guidance values of two
to four inches.  The best chance for flooding will be in urban areas
and along small streams.

Bowling Green will end up with its wettest August on record, and
Lexington has a shot at their wettest August as well.  Louisville
will end up somewhere in the top ten.

Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night should be around 70.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs tomorrow with all the
clouds and rain.  Got burned on the high temp forecast on a
similarly rainy day a couple of weeks ago when highs were only in
the 70s.  For now will go for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
though the final answer will depend on just how much we can manage
to dry out Sunday afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise further.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern Plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it moves
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states late
Tuesday will build northward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Plume of tropical moisture streaming up from the Mississippi Valley
will set the stage for periods of showers with some embedded
thunderstorms for much of the TAF period.  Initial lead wave is
moving NE of the region this evening.  However, second wave is now
moving up from MS/AL and this will affect the terminals this evening
and into the overnight period.  A third wave down along the gulf
coast will impact the region later on Sunday morning.

For the evening/overnight period, expect low end VFR to high end
MVFR conditions at the terminals.  It appears best chances of
thunder will be at KBWG and KLEX this evening as stronger wave pulls
northward out of Tennessee.  While MVFR conditions are expected to
prevail...short term drops into IFR or even into LIFR will be
possible as showers/storms pass through the terminals.  Based on
current trajectories, feel that KSDF will likely see light/moderate
rain at times this evening and overnight, but conditions will likely
remain MVFR with a lesser risk of IFR/LIFR conditions.  Winds
overnight will remain out of the south with speeds less than 8kts.
Some occasional higher gusts may be possible within convection.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-
     053>057-062>067-071>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302335
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
735 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Tropical moisture plume is becoming more defined this evening.  This
feature will bring rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms to
the region this evening and overnight.  With such ample moisture in
place, torrential rainfall will be the main weather hazard with this
activity.  Several mid-level perturbations were evident in radar
imagery and satellite imagery.  The first one is currently moving NE
out of the region while a second and stronger one is rotating NE
through Mississippi.  This second wave is inducing stronger
convection from north-central AL into middle Tennessee.  This
activity will move northward into southern KY shortly and affect
areas mainly east of I-65 and along and west of I-75.

Moist adiabatic profiles are likely to keep severe weather risks
relatively low this evening.  However, decent precipitation loading
will likely lead to low-centroid cells to develop capable of
producing torrential/tropical rainfall.  While basin averages will
likely range from a half to one and a half inches, areas that see
repeated rainfall could see upwards of 2-3 inches locally which
would result in local hydrologic issues.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture easily visible on regional satellite
and radar loops has been streaming northward up the lower
Mississippi Valley today. Small waves are embedded within this
moisture, with one moving into west Tennessee and the other crossing
northern Louisiana this afternoon. The moisture and its embedded
waves will continue to push to the north and northeast,
overspreading southern Indiana and especially central Kentucky
tonight and Sunday.  As a result, we can expect widespread showers
along with enough instability for some embedded thunder.  The
wettest time period will be from late tonight into Sunday morning.
Showers will become more scattered from southwest to northeast
Sunday afternoon.  Coverage will taper off even more Sunday night as
the deep moisture moves off to the northeast.

Precipitable water values will be in the 2 to 2.4 inch range through
Sunday, with K Index values solidly in the middle 30s.  We`ll have
some dynamic assistance from an increasing low level jet and from
being situated near the right entrance region of the upper jet.  It
looks like general rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be
possible in central Kentucky, especially along a corridor from
Bowling Green to Lexington.  Lesser amounts (one-half to one inch)
in southern Indiana.  The individual showers and thunderstorms will
have a progressive forward movement, but training will be a
concern.  Spots that get stuck under narrow bands of heavier
rainfall could see three inches of precipitation.  Any flooding is
expected to be minor given 6-hour flash flood guidance values of two
to four inches.  The best chance for flooding will be in urban areas
and along small streams.

Bowling Green will end up with its wettest August on record, and
Lexington has a shot at their wettest August as well.  Louisville
will end up somewhere in the top ten.

Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night should be around 70.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs tomorrow with all the
clouds and rain.  Got burned on the high temp forecast on a
similarly rainy day a couple of weeks ago when highs were only in
the 70s.  For now will go for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
though the final answer will depend on just how much we can manage
to dry out Sunday afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise further.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern Plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it moves
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states late
Tuesday will build northward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Plume of tropical moisture streaming up from the Mississippi Valley
will set the stage for periods of showers with some embedded
thunderstorms for much of the TAF period.  Initial lead wave is
moving NE of the region this evening.  However, second wave is now
moving up from MS/AL and this will affect the terminals this evening
and into the overnight period.  A third wave down along the gulf
coast will impact the region later on Sunday morning.

For the evening/overnight period, expect low end VFR to high end
MVFR conditions at the terminals.  It appears best chances of
thunder will be at KBWG and KLEX this evening as stronger wave pulls
northward out of Tennessee.  While MVFR conditions are expected to
prevail...short term drops into IFR or even into LIFR will be
possible as showers/storms pass through the terminals.  Based on
current trajectories, feel that KSDF will likely see light/moderate
rain at times this evening and overnight, but conditions will likely
remain MVFR with a lesser risk of IFR/LIFR conditions.  Winds
overnight will remain out of the south with speeds less than 8kts.
Some occasional higher gusts may be possible within convection.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 302335
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
735 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Tropical moisture plume is becoming more defined this evening.  This
feature will bring rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms to
the region this evening and overnight.  With such ample moisture in
place, torrential rainfall will be the main weather hazard with this
activity.  Several mid-level perturbations were evident in radar
imagery and satellite imagery.  The first one is currently moving NE
out of the region while a second and stronger one is rotating NE
through Mississippi.  This second wave is inducing stronger
convection from north-central AL into middle Tennessee.  This
activity will move northward into southern KY shortly and affect
areas mainly east of I-65 and along and west of I-75.

Moist adiabatic profiles are likely to keep severe weather risks
relatively low this evening.  However, decent precipitation loading
will likely lead to low-centroid cells to develop capable of
producing torrential/tropical rainfall.  While basin averages will
likely range from a half to one and a half inches, areas that see
repeated rainfall could see upwards of 2-3 inches locally which
would result in local hydrologic issues.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture easily visible on regional satellite
and radar loops has been streaming northward up the lower
Mississippi Valley today. Small waves are embedded within this
moisture, with one moving into west Tennessee and the other crossing
northern Louisiana this afternoon. The moisture and its embedded
waves will continue to push to the north and northeast,
overspreading southern Indiana and especially central Kentucky
tonight and Sunday.  As a result, we can expect widespread showers
along with enough instability for some embedded thunder.  The
wettest time period will be from late tonight into Sunday morning.
Showers will become more scattered from southwest to northeast
Sunday afternoon.  Coverage will taper off even more Sunday night as
the deep moisture moves off to the northeast.

Precipitable water values will be in the 2 to 2.4 inch range through
Sunday, with K Index values solidly in the middle 30s.  We`ll have
some dynamic assistance from an increasing low level jet and from
being situated near the right entrance region of the upper jet.  It
looks like general rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be
possible in central Kentucky, especially along a corridor from
Bowling Green to Lexington.  Lesser amounts (one-half to one inch)
in southern Indiana.  The individual showers and thunderstorms will
have a progressive forward movement, but training will be a
concern.  Spots that get stuck under narrow bands of heavier
rainfall could see three inches of precipitation.  Any flooding is
expected to be minor given 6-hour flash flood guidance values of two
to four inches.  The best chance for flooding will be in urban areas
and along small streams.

Bowling Green will end up with its wettest August on record, and
Lexington has a shot at their wettest August as well.  Louisville
will end up somewhere in the top ten.

Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night should be around 70.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs tomorrow with all the
clouds and rain.  Got burned on the high temp forecast on a
similarly rainy day a couple of weeks ago when highs were only in
the 70s.  For now will go for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
though the final answer will depend on just how much we can manage
to dry out Sunday afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise further.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern Plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it moves
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states late
Tuesday will build northward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Plume of tropical moisture streaming up from the Mississippi Valley
will set the stage for periods of showers with some embedded
thunderstorms for much of the TAF period.  Initial lead wave is
moving NE of the region this evening.  However, second wave is now
moving up from MS/AL and this will affect the terminals this evening
and into the overnight period.  A third wave down along the gulf
coast will impact the region later on Sunday morning.

For the evening/overnight period, expect low end VFR to high end
MVFR conditions at the terminals.  It appears best chances of
thunder will be at KBWG and KLEX this evening as stronger wave pulls
northward out of Tennessee.  While MVFR conditions are expected to
prevail...short term drops into IFR or even into LIFR will be
possible as showers/storms pass through the terminals.  Based on
current trajectories, feel that KSDF will likely see light/moderate
rain at times this evening and overnight, but conditions will likely
remain MVFR with a lesser risk of IFR/LIFR conditions.  Winds
overnight will remain out of the south with speeds less than 8kts.
Some occasional higher gusts may be possible within convection.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302320
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
720 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture easily visible on regional satellite
and radar loops has been streaming northward up the lower
Mississippi Valley today. Small waves are embedded within this
moisture, with one moving into west Tennessee and the other crossing
northern Louisiana this afternoon. The moisture and its embedded
waves will continue to push to the north and northeast,
overspreading southern Indiana and especially central Kentucky
tonight and Sunday.  As a result, we can expect widespread showers
along with enough instability for some embedded thunder.  The
wettest time period will be from late tonight into Sunday morning.
Showers will become more scattered from southwest to northeast
Sunday afternoon.  Coverage will taper off even more Sunday night as
the deep moisture moves off to the northeast.

Precipitable water values will be in the 2 to 2.4 inch range through
Sunday, with K Index values solidly in the middle 30s.  We`ll have
some dynamic assistance from an increasing low level jet and from
being situated near the right entrance region of the upper jet.  It
looks like general rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be
possible in central Kentucky, especially along a corridor from
Bowling Green to Lexington.  Lesser amounts (one-half to one inch)
in southern Indiana.  The individual showers and thunderstorms will
have a progressive forward movement, but training will be a
concern.  Spots that get stuck under narrow bands of heavier
rainfall could see three inches of precipitation.  Any flooding is
expected to be minor given 6-hour flash flood guidance values of two
to four inches.  The best chance for flooding will be in urban areas
and along small streams.

Bowling Green will end up with its wettest August on record, and
Lexington has a shot at their wettest August as well.  Louisville
will end up somewhere in the top ten.

Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night should be around 70.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs tomorrow with all the
clouds and rain.  Got burned on the high temp forecast on a
similarly rainy day a couple of weeks ago when highs were only in
the 70s.  For now will go for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
though the final answer will depend on just how much we can manage
to dry out Sunday afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise further.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern Plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it moves
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states late
Tuesday will build northward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Plume of tropical moisture streaming up from the Mississippi Valley
will set the stage for periods of showers with some embedded
thunderstorms for much of the TAF period.  Initial lead wave is
moving NE of the region this evening.  However, second wave is now
moving up from MS/AL and this will affect the terminals this evening
and into the overnight period.  A third wave down along the gulf
coast will impact the region later on Sunday morning.

For the evening/overnight period, expect low end VFR to high end
MVFR conditions at the terminals.  It appears best chances of
thunder will be at KBWG and KLEX this evening as stronger wave pulls
northward out of Tennessee.  While MVFR conditions are expected to
prevail...short term drops into IFR or even into LIFR will be
possible as showers/storms pass through the terminals.  Based on
current trajectories, feel that KSDF will likely see light/moderate
rain at times this evening and overnight, but conditions will likely
remain MVFR with a lesser risk of IFR/LIFR conditions.  Winds
overnight will remain out of the south with speeds less than 8kts.
Some occasional higher gusts may be possible within convection.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 302320
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
720 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture easily visible on regional satellite
and radar loops has been streaming northward up the lower
Mississippi Valley today. Small waves are embedded within this
moisture, with one moving into west Tennessee and the other crossing
northern Louisiana this afternoon. The moisture and its embedded
waves will continue to push to the north and northeast,
overspreading southern Indiana and especially central Kentucky
tonight and Sunday.  As a result, we can expect widespread showers
along with enough instability for some embedded thunder.  The
wettest time period will be from late tonight into Sunday morning.
Showers will become more scattered from southwest to northeast
Sunday afternoon.  Coverage will taper off even more Sunday night as
the deep moisture moves off to the northeast.

Precipitable water values will be in the 2 to 2.4 inch range through
Sunday, with K Index values solidly in the middle 30s.  We`ll have
some dynamic assistance from an increasing low level jet and from
being situated near the right entrance region of the upper jet.  It
looks like general rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be
possible in central Kentucky, especially along a corridor from
Bowling Green to Lexington.  Lesser amounts (one-half to one inch)
in southern Indiana.  The individual showers and thunderstorms will
have a progressive forward movement, but training will be a
concern.  Spots that get stuck under narrow bands of heavier
rainfall could see three inches of precipitation.  Any flooding is
expected to be minor given 6-hour flash flood guidance values of two
to four inches.  The best chance for flooding will be in urban areas
and along small streams.

Bowling Green will end up with its wettest August on record, and
Lexington has a shot at their wettest August as well.  Louisville
will end up somewhere in the top ten.

Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night should be around 70.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs tomorrow with all the
clouds and rain.  Got burned on the high temp forecast on a
similarly rainy day a couple of weeks ago when highs were only in
the 70s.  For now will go for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
though the final answer will depend on just how much we can manage
to dry out Sunday afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise further.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern Plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it moves
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states late
Tuesday will build northward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Plume of tropical moisture streaming up from the Mississippi Valley
will set the stage for periods of showers with some embedded
thunderstorms for much of the TAF period.  Initial lead wave is
moving NE of the region this evening.  However, second wave is now
moving up from MS/AL and this will affect the terminals this evening
and into the overnight period.  A third wave down along the gulf
coast will impact the region later on Sunday morning.

For the evening/overnight period, expect low end VFR to high end
MVFR conditions at the terminals.  It appears best chances of
thunder will be at KBWG and KLEX this evening as stronger wave pulls
northward out of Tennessee.  While MVFR conditions are expected to
prevail...short term drops into IFR or even into LIFR will be
possible as showers/storms pass through the terminals.  Based on
current trajectories, feel that KSDF will likely see light/moderate
rain at times this evening and overnight, but conditions will likely
remain MVFR with a lesser risk of IFR/LIFR conditions.  Winds
overnight will remain out of the south with speeds less than 8kts.
Some occasional higher gusts may be possible within convection.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301859
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture easily visible on regional satellite
and radar loops has been streaming northward up the lower
Mississippi Valley today. Small waves are embedded within this
moisture, with one moving into west Tennessee and the other crossing
northern Louisiana this afternoon. The moisture and its embedded
waves will continue to push to the north and northeast,
overspreading southern Indiana and especially central Kentucky
tonight and Sunday.  As a result, we can expect widespread showers
along with enough instability for some embedded thunder.  The
wettest time period will be from late tonight into Sunday morning.
Showers will become more scattered from southwest to northeast
Sunday afternoon.  Coverage will taper off even more Sunday night as
the deep moisture moves off to the northeast.

Precipitable water values will be in the 2 to 2.4 inch range through
Sunday, with K Index values solidly in the middle 30s.  We`ll have
some dynamic assistance from an increasing low level jet and from
being situated near the right entrance region of the upper jet.  It
looks like general rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be
possible in central Kentucky, especially along a corridor from
Bowling Green to Lexington.  Lesser amounts (one-half to one inch)
in southern Indiana.  The individual showers and thunderstorms will
have a progressive forward movement, but training will be a
concern.  Spots that get stuck under narrow bands of heavier
rainfall could see three inches of precipitation.  Any flooding is
expected to be minor given 6-hour flash flood guidance values of two
to four inches.  The best chance for flooding will be in urban areas
and along small streams.

Bowling Green will end up with its wettest August on record, and
Lexington has a shot at their wettest August as well.  Louisville
will end up somewhere in the top ten.

Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night should be around 70.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs tomorrow with all the
clouds and rain.  Got burned on the high temp forecast on a
similarly rainy day a couple of weeks ago when highs were only in
the 70s.  For now will go for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
though the final answer will depend on just how much we can manage
to dry out Sunday afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise further.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern Plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it moves
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states late
Tuesday will build northward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture streaming up the Mississippi Valley
will advance into central Kentucky this afternoon and evening, then
take up residence over the region through the rest of the TAF
period.  Widespread showers with isolated embedded thunder can be
expected for much of the forecast period, with the wettest weather
taking place overnight tonight into Sunday morning.  Flying
conditions will gradually deteriorate this afternoon, and may go
high-end MVFR tonight into Sunday morning with both lowering
ceilings and visibilities in rain.  Winds will be consistently from
the south in the 6 to 11 knot range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301859
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture easily visible on regional satellite
and radar loops has been streaming northward up the lower
Mississippi Valley today. Small waves are embedded within this
moisture, with one moving into west Tennessee and the other crossing
northern Louisiana this afternoon. The moisture and its embedded
waves will continue to push to the north and northeast,
overspreading southern Indiana and especially central Kentucky
tonight and Sunday.  As a result, we can expect widespread showers
along with enough instability for some embedded thunder.  The
wettest time period will be from late tonight into Sunday morning.
Showers will become more scattered from southwest to northeast
Sunday afternoon.  Coverage will taper off even more Sunday night as
the deep moisture moves off to the northeast.

Precipitable water values will be in the 2 to 2.4 inch range through
Sunday, with K Index values solidly in the middle 30s.  We`ll have
some dynamic assistance from an increasing low level jet and from
being situated near the right entrance region of the upper jet.  It
looks like general rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be
possible in central Kentucky, especially along a corridor from
Bowling Green to Lexington.  Lesser amounts (one-half to one inch)
in southern Indiana.  The individual showers and thunderstorms will
have a progressive forward movement, but training will be a
concern.  Spots that get stuck under narrow bands of heavier
rainfall could see three inches of precipitation.  Any flooding is
expected to be minor given 6-hour flash flood guidance values of two
to four inches.  The best chance for flooding will be in urban areas
and along small streams.

Bowling Green will end up with its wettest August on record, and
Lexington has a shot at their wettest August as well.  Louisville
will end up somewhere in the top ten.

Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night should be around 70.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs tomorrow with all the
clouds and rain.  Got burned on the high temp forecast on a
similarly rainy day a couple of weeks ago when highs were only in
the 70s.  For now will go for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
though the final answer will depend on just how much we can manage
to dry out Sunday afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise further.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern Plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it moves
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states late
Tuesday will build northward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture streaming up the Mississippi Valley
will advance into central Kentucky this afternoon and evening, then
take up residence over the region through the rest of the TAF
period.  Widespread showers with isolated embedded thunder can be
expected for much of the forecast period, with the wettest weather
taking place overnight tonight into Sunday morning.  Flying
conditions will gradually deteriorate this afternoon, and may go
high-end MVFR tonight into Sunday morning with both lowering
ceilings and visibilities in rain.  Winds will be consistently from
the south in the 6 to 11 knot range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301738
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
138 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

The Ohio Valley will be placed in deep southwest flow through this
forecast period, between troughing to our NW and ridging off the mid
Atlantic Coast. This will lead to a prolonged period of widespread
shower (and a few storms) chances as deep gulf moisture is funneled
up through the Ohio Valley.

Things will start off quiet this morning with a relative lull in
deep moisture. However, will watch as the next plume lifts northward
out of the Gulf Coast states, combining with moisture over the mid
Mississippi River Valley ahead of a frontal boundary. Scattered to
numerous showers and a few storms are expected to gradually
overspread the area from early afternoon (west) to evening (east).
Today`s activity will mainly be a warm advection/weak isentropic
lift scenario so won`t get too carried away with Pops/coverage.
Expect 60 percent SW to 30 percent NE by early this evening. Highs
today will be dependent on timing of the heavier cloud cover, but
will generally go with highs in the 84-88 range. The west being on
the cooler side.

An impressive surge of moisture looks to arrive overnight and last
through Sunday as an airmass characterized by PWATs in the 2" - 2.1"
range overspreads the area on a 25-35 knot low level jet. With high
confidence in the trajectory this plume will take over the area,
have bumped Pops/Coverage up to 80 percent across the CWA. Won`t go
overboard with thunder coverage on Saturday night as mid level lapse
rates only mirror the moist adiabatic profile through the column,
yielding a tall/skinny look. Therefore, will only mention scattered
t-storms with the widespread rain, but do expect some heavy rainers
will be on the table due to warm rain processes and very moist
atmosphere. Better coverage of t-storms is expected Sunday with
better instability. Overall, it appears central portions of the CWA
could see between 1 to 1.5" of rain through Sunday, locally up to
2". Areas across southern Indiana and near Lake Cumberland can
expect up to 1". Highs on Sunday will be cooler in the low 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it move
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

.Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states, late
Tuesday will build northwards across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture streaming up the Mississippi Valley
will advance into central Kentucky this afternoon and evening, then
take up residence over the region through the rest of the TAF
period.  Widespread showers with isolated embedded thunder can be
expected for much of the forecast period, with the wettest weather
taking place overnight tonight into Sunday morning.  Flying
conditions will gradually deteriorate this afternoon, and may go
high-end MVFR tonight into Sunday morning with both lowering
ceilings and visibilities in rain.  Winds will be consistently from
the south in the 6 to 11 knot range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301738
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
138 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

The Ohio Valley will be placed in deep southwest flow through this
forecast period, between troughing to our NW and ridging off the mid
Atlantic Coast. This will lead to a prolonged period of widespread
shower (and a few storms) chances as deep gulf moisture is funneled
up through the Ohio Valley.

Things will start off quiet this morning with a relative lull in
deep moisture. However, will watch as the next plume lifts northward
out of the Gulf Coast states, combining with moisture over the mid
Mississippi River Valley ahead of a frontal boundary. Scattered to
numerous showers and a few storms are expected to gradually
overspread the area from early afternoon (west) to evening (east).
Today`s activity will mainly be a warm advection/weak isentropic
lift scenario so won`t get too carried away with Pops/coverage.
Expect 60 percent SW to 30 percent NE by early this evening. Highs
today will be dependent on timing of the heavier cloud cover, but
will generally go with highs in the 84-88 range. The west being on
the cooler side.

An impressive surge of moisture looks to arrive overnight and last
through Sunday as an airmass characterized by PWATs in the 2" - 2.1"
range overspreads the area on a 25-35 knot low level jet. With high
confidence in the trajectory this plume will take over the area,
have bumped Pops/Coverage up to 80 percent across the CWA. Won`t go
overboard with thunder coverage on Saturday night as mid level lapse
rates only mirror the moist adiabatic profile through the column,
yielding a tall/skinny look. Therefore, will only mention scattered
t-storms with the widespread rain, but do expect some heavy rainers
will be on the table due to warm rain processes and very moist
atmosphere. Better coverage of t-storms is expected Sunday with
better instability. Overall, it appears central portions of the CWA
could see between 1 to 1.5" of rain through Sunday, locally up to
2". Areas across southern Indiana and near Lake Cumberland can
expect up to 1". Highs on Sunday will be cooler in the low 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.Monday through Wednesday...

A potent jet is forecast early Monday to exit the central Rockies
and help carve out a strong, yet progressive trough over the
northern plains. Low pressure will deepen early Tuesday as it move
northeast well north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay. By the
middle of next week, zonal flow will develop as the jet will align
over the northern tier of states near Canada. For Wednesday through
the early portion of the weekend, strong ridging will develop over
the southern two thirds of the CONUS, including the Lower Ohio
Valley.

The Commonwealth on Labor Day will lie in between an exiting wave
over the Appalachians and an approaching cold front that may
approach southern Indiana Tuesday. Expect warm and continued humid
conditions with decent southwesterly low level flow and highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Any afternoon convection will likely stay
isolated and unorganized with only 20 to 30% coverage.

For several days, extended guidance has forecast the development of
widespread convection late Monday and early Tuesday along a cold
front that is forecast to lie along a line from northern Illinois
through Missouri. This boundary is expected to sag southeast,
weaken, and briefly stall along or north of the Ohio River Tuesday
afternoon. Southwest flow ahead of this boundary and pre-frontal
convergence will bring very humid air overhead Tuesday with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Scattered thunderstorms are a good bet Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and
north of the Ohio River. Should morning skies remain clear and we
realize adequate surface instability, some storms may become strong
with a potential for localized heavy rainfall. Highs Tuesday may be
modified by cloud cover and precipitation, but should generally
reach the mid 80s to around 90.

.Wednesday through Saturday...

500mb ridging, already in place across the southern states, late
Tuesday will build northwards across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
peaking in strength late Friday. Humid air will remain in place,
with dewpoints probably remaining in the upper 60s at least. If not
for our recent widespread rains, this period could become quite hot
with highs in the middle 90s. With relatively lush vegetation and
moist soils, think that highs around 90 to the lower 90s are more
likely. Winds will stay light through the period. Afternoon and
evening convection are possible each day, but think coverage will
range from isolated to scattered at best Wednesday, and only
isolated Thursday through Saturday as ridging really becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

An impressive plume of moisture streaming up the Mississippi Valley
will advance into central Kentucky this afternoon and evening, then
take up residence over the region through the rest of the TAF
period.  Widespread showers with isolated embedded thunder can be
expected for much of the forecast period, with the wettest weather
taking place overnight tonight into Sunday morning.  Flying
conditions will gradually deteriorate this afternoon, and may go
high-end MVFR tonight into Sunday morning with both lowering
ceilings and visibilities in rain.  Winds will be consistently from
the south in the 6 to 11 knot range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300952
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
552 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

The Ohio Valley will be placed in deep southwest flow through this
forecast period, between troughing to our NW and ridging off the mid
Atlantic Coast. This will lead to a prolonged period of widespread
shower (and a few storms) chances as deep gulf moisture is funneled
up through the Ohio Valley.

Things will start off quiet this morning with a relative lull in
deep moisture. However, will watch as the next plume lifts northward
out of the Gulf Coast states, combining with moisture over the mid
Mississippi River Valley ahead of a frontal boundary. Scattered to
numerous showers and a few storms are expected to gradually
overspread the area from early afternoon (west) to evening (east).
Today`s activity will mainly be a warm advection/weak isentropic
lift scenario so won`t get too carried away with Pops/coverage.
Expect 60 percent SW to 30 percent NE by early this evening. Highs
today will be dependent on timing of the heavier cloud cover, but
will generally go with highs in the 84-88 range. The west being on
the cooler side.

An impressive surge of moisture looks to arrive overnight and last
through Sunday as an airmass characterized by PWATs in the 2" - 2.1"
range overspreads the area on a 25-35 knot low level jet. With high
confidence in the trajectory this plume will take over the area,
have bumped Pops/Coverage up to 80 percent across the CWA. Won`t go
overboard with thunder coverage on Saturday night as mid level lapse
rates only mirror the moist adiabatic profile through the column,
yielding a tall/skinny look. Therefore, will only mention scattered
t-storms with the widespread rain, but do expect some heavy rainers
will be on the table due to warm rain processes and very moist
atmosphere. Better coverage of t-storms is expected Sunday with
better instability. Overall, it appears central portions of the CWA
could see between 1 to 1.5" of rain through Sunday, locally up to
2". Areas across southern Indiana and near Lake Cumberland can
expect up to 1". Highs on Sunday will be cooler in the low 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

After storms taper off Sunday evening, looks like we`ll get a brief
pause in precip before additional widely scattered storms develop
Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage will not be as great as for
the weekend, as the focus should be more to our northwest, along a
cold front stretching from Lake Michigan to northern MO. That front
will drift slowly southward through Tuesday, washing out over or
just north of the Ohio River. It`s proximity to us as well as plenty
of moisture should mean at least scattered coverage of storms. Once
again, localized flooding is possible for areas that see training of
thunderstorms.

Model consensus has a broad ridge across the southern half of the
U.S. for the last half of the work week. For our weather, this
should mean continued above normal temperatures as well as isolated
to scattered storms each afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 551 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Conditions will start out VFR and pretty quiet across the TAF sites
as we await the next plume of gulf moisture ahead of an approaching
wave. In the meantime, expect scattered to broken mid level clouds
streaming overhead, with light SSE winds. A few light showers will
stretch across the Wabash River Valley.

Will notice an increase in surface winds by mid to late morning, and
a shift to more SSW. Low and mid level clouds will increase during
this time, however should stay above the VFR threshold. Will start
prevailing rain shower and VCTS mention by early to mid afternoon at
SDF/BWG, and by late afternoon at LEX. Conditions will likely
drop to at least low MVFR in any storm, however will nail down
better timing with later issuances.

As we move into the Saturday night period, expect widespread showers
and scattered thunderstorms to overspread the TAF sites. Expect that
prevailing MVFR can be expected, with potential brief periods in IFR
not out of the question. Ceilings will begin to lower after
Midnight, at least into the MVFR range. Widespread showers and a few
storms should prevail well into Sunday as a frontal boundary remains
stalled over the Ohio Valley.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300952
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
552 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

The Ohio Valley will be placed in deep southwest flow through this
forecast period, between troughing to our NW and ridging off the mid
Atlantic Coast. This will lead to a prolonged period of widespread
shower (and a few storms) chances as deep gulf moisture is funneled
up through the Ohio Valley.

Things will start off quiet this morning with a relative lull in
deep moisture. However, will watch as the next plume lifts northward
out of the Gulf Coast states, combining with moisture over the mid
Mississippi River Valley ahead of a frontal boundary. Scattered to
numerous showers and a few storms are expected to gradually
overspread the area from early afternoon (west) to evening (east).
Today`s activity will mainly be a warm advection/weak isentropic
lift scenario so won`t get too carried away with Pops/coverage.
Expect 60 percent SW to 30 percent NE by early this evening. Highs
today will be dependent on timing of the heavier cloud cover, but
will generally go with highs in the 84-88 range. The west being on
the cooler side.

An impressive surge of moisture looks to arrive overnight and last
through Sunday as an airmass characterized by PWATs in the 2" - 2.1"
range overspreads the area on a 25-35 knot low level jet. With high
confidence in the trajectory this plume will take over the area,
have bumped Pops/Coverage up to 80 percent across the CWA. Won`t go
overboard with thunder coverage on Saturday night as mid level lapse
rates only mirror the moist adiabatic profile through the column,
yielding a tall/skinny look. Therefore, will only mention scattered
t-storms with the widespread rain, but do expect some heavy rainers
will be on the table due to warm rain processes and very moist
atmosphere. Better coverage of t-storms is expected Sunday with
better instability. Overall, it appears central portions of the CWA
could see between 1 to 1.5" of rain through Sunday, locally up to
2". Areas across southern Indiana and near Lake Cumberland can
expect up to 1". Highs on Sunday will be cooler in the low 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

After storms taper off Sunday evening, looks like we`ll get a brief
pause in precip before additional widely scattered storms develop
Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage will not be as great as for
the weekend, as the focus should be more to our northwest, along a
cold front stretching from Lake Michigan to northern MO. That front
will drift slowly southward through Tuesday, washing out over or
just north of the Ohio River. It`s proximity to us as well as plenty
of moisture should mean at least scattered coverage of storms. Once
again, localized flooding is possible for areas that see training of
thunderstorms.

Model consensus has a broad ridge across the southern half of the
U.S. for the last half of the work week. For our weather, this
should mean continued above normal temperatures as well as isolated
to scattered storms each afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 551 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Conditions will start out VFR and pretty quiet across the TAF sites
as we await the next plume of gulf moisture ahead of an approaching
wave. In the meantime, expect scattered to broken mid level clouds
streaming overhead, with light SSE winds. A few light showers will
stretch across the Wabash River Valley.

Will notice an increase in surface winds by mid to late morning, and
a shift to more SSW. Low and mid level clouds will increase during
this time, however should stay above the VFR threshold. Will start
prevailing rain shower and VCTS mention by early to mid afternoon at
SDF/BWG, and by late afternoon at LEX. Conditions will likely
drop to at least low MVFR in any storm, however will nail down
better timing with later issuances.

As we move into the Saturday night period, expect widespread showers
and scattered thunderstorms to overspread the TAF sites. Expect that
prevailing MVFR can be expected, with potential brief periods in IFR
not out of the question. Ceilings will begin to lower after
Midnight, at least into the MVFR range. Widespread showers and a few
storms should prevail well into Sunday as a frontal boundary remains
stalled over the Ohio Valley.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

The Ohio Valley will be placed in deep southwest flow through this
forecast period, between troughing to our NW and ridging off the mid
Atlantic Coast. This will lead to a prolonged period of widespread
shower (and a few storms) chances as deep gulf moisture is funneled
up through the Ohio Valley.

Things will start off quiet this morning with a relative lull in
deep moisture. However, will watch as the next plume lifts northward
out of the Gulf Coast states, combining with moisture over the mid
Mississippi River Valley ahead of a frontal boundary. Scattered to
numerous showers and a few storms are expected to gradually
overspread the area from early afternoon (west) to evening (east).
Today`s activity will mainly be a warm advection/weak isentropic
lift scenario so won`t get too carried away with Pops/coverage.
Expect 60 percent SW to 30 percent NE by early this evening. Highs
today will be dependent on timing of the heavier cloud cover, but
will generally go with highs in the 84-88 range. The west being on
the cooler side.

An impressive surge of moisture looks to arrive overnight and last
through Sunday as an airmass characterized by PWATs in the 2" - 2.1"
range overspreads the area on a 25-35 knot low level jet. With high
confidence in the trajectory this plume will take over the area,
have bumped Pops/Coverage up to 80 percent across the CWA. Won`t go
overboard with thunder coverage on Saturday night as mid level lapse
rates only mirror the moist adiabatic profile through the column,
yielding a tall/skinny look. Therefore, will only mention scattered
t-storms with the widespread rain, but do expect some heavy rainers
will be on the table due to warm rain processes and very moist
atmosphere. Better coverage of t-storms is expected Sunday with
better instability. Overall, it appears central portions of the CWA
could see between 1 to 1.5" of rain through Sunday, locally up to
2". Areas across southern Indiana and near Lake Cumberland can
expect up to 1". Highs on Sunday will be cooler in the low 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

After storms taper off Sunday evening, looks like we`ll get a brief
pause in precip before additional widely scattered storms develop
Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage will not be as great as for
the weekend, as the focus should be more to our northwest, along a
cold front stretching from Lake Michigan to northern MO. That front
will drift slowly southward through Tuesday, washing out over or
just north of the Ohio River. It`s proximity to us as well as plenty
of moisture should mean at least scattered coverage of storms. Once
again, localized flooding is possible for areas that see training of
thunderstorms.

Model consensus has a broad ridge across the southern half of the
U.S. for the last half of the work week. For our weather, this
should mean continued above normal temperatures as well as isolated
to scattered storms each afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

The early morning hours should be pretty quiet across the TAF sites
as we await the next plume of gulf moisture ahead of an approaching
wave. In the meantime, expect scattered to broken mid level clouds
streaming overhead, with light SSE winds.

Will notice an increase in surface winds by mid to late morning, and
a shift to more SSW. Low and mid level clouds will increase during
this time, however should stay above the VFR threshold. Will start
prevailing rain shower and VCTS mention by early afternoon at
SDF/BWG, and by mid to late afternoon at LEX. Conditions will likely
drop to at least low MVFR in any storm, however will nail down
better timing with later issuances.

Look for prevailing rain showers to end around sundown at SDF/BWG,
and more toward midnight at LEX. Some light showers may linger into
the overnight, with potential for some MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

The Ohio Valley will be placed in deep southwest flow through this
forecast period, between troughing to our NW and ridging off the mid
Atlantic Coast. This will lead to a prolonged period of widespread
shower (and a few storms) chances as deep gulf moisture is funneled
up through the Ohio Valley.

Things will start off quiet this morning with a relative lull in
deep moisture. However, will watch as the next plume lifts northward
out of the Gulf Coast states, combining with moisture over the mid
Mississippi River Valley ahead of a frontal boundary. Scattered to
numerous showers and a few storms are expected to gradually
overspread the area from early afternoon (west) to evening (east).
Today`s activity will mainly be a warm advection/weak isentropic
lift scenario so won`t get too carried away with Pops/coverage.
Expect 60 percent SW to 30 percent NE by early this evening. Highs
today will be dependent on timing of the heavier cloud cover, but
will generally go with highs in the 84-88 range. The west being on
the cooler side.

An impressive surge of moisture looks to arrive overnight and last
through Sunday as an airmass characterized by PWATs in the 2" - 2.1"
range overspreads the area on a 25-35 knot low level jet. With high
confidence in the trajectory this plume will take over the area,
have bumped Pops/Coverage up to 80 percent across the CWA. Won`t go
overboard with thunder coverage on Saturday night as mid level lapse
rates only mirror the moist adiabatic profile through the column,
yielding a tall/skinny look. Therefore, will only mention scattered
t-storms with the widespread rain, but do expect some heavy rainers
will be on the table due to warm rain processes and very moist
atmosphere. Better coverage of t-storms is expected Sunday with
better instability. Overall, it appears central portions of the CWA
could see between 1 to 1.5" of rain through Sunday, locally up to
2". Areas across southern Indiana and near Lake Cumberland can
expect up to 1". Highs on Sunday will be cooler in the low 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

After storms taper off Sunday evening, looks like we`ll get a brief
pause in precip before additional widely scattered storms develop
Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage will not be as great as for
the weekend, as the focus should be more to our northwest, along a
cold front stretching from Lake Michigan to northern MO. That front
will drift slowly southward through Tuesday, washing out over or
just north of the Ohio River. It`s proximity to us as well as plenty
of moisture should mean at least scattered coverage of storms. Once
again, localized flooding is possible for areas that see training of
thunderstorms.

Model consensus has a broad ridge across the southern half of the
U.S. for the last half of the work week. For our weather, this
should mean continued above normal temperatures as well as isolated
to scattered storms each afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

The early morning hours should be pretty quiet across the TAF sites
as we await the next plume of gulf moisture ahead of an approaching
wave. In the meantime, expect scattered to broken mid level clouds
streaming overhead, with light SSE winds.

Will notice an increase in surface winds by mid to late morning, and
a shift to more SSW. Low and mid level clouds will increase during
this time, however should stay above the VFR threshold. Will start
prevailing rain shower and VCTS mention by early afternoon at
SDF/BWG, and by mid to late afternoon at LEX. Conditions will likely
drop to at least low MVFR in any storm, however will nail down
better timing with later issuances.

Look for prevailing rain showers to end around sundown at SDF/BWG,
and more toward midnight at LEX. Some light showers may linger into
the overnight, with potential for some MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300502
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Updated the forecast to remove POPs for the rest of this evening.
Diurnally driven convection has diminished over our area and we now
sit in a cull before the arrival of convection ahead of an
approaching trough.  Largely the overnight period should remain dry
with scattered showers/storms re-entering southwest IN/west central
KY around sunrise.  Only made minor tweaks to temps/dewpts.  Low
temps still look to bottom out in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

The early morning hours should be pretty quiet across the TAF sites
as we await the next plume of gulf moisture ahead of an approaching
wave. In the meantime, expect scattered to broken mid level clouds
streaming overhead, with light SSE winds.

Will notice an increase in surface winds by mid to late morning, and
a shift to more SSW. Low and mid level clouds will increase during
this time, however should stay above the VFR threshold. Will start
prevailing rain shower and VCTS mention by early afternoon at
SDF/BWG, and by mid to late afternoon at LEX. Conditions will likely
drop to at least low MVFR in any storm, however will nail down
better timing with later issuances.

Look for prevailing rain showers to end around sundown at SDF/BWG,
and more toward midnight at LEX. Some light showers may linger into
the overnight, with potential for some MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300502
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Updated the forecast to remove POPs for the rest of this evening.
Diurnally driven convection has diminished over our area and we now
sit in a cull before the arrival of convection ahead of an
approaching trough.  Largely the overnight period should remain dry
with scattered showers/storms re-entering southwest IN/west central
KY around sunrise.  Only made minor tweaks to temps/dewpts.  Low
temps still look to bottom out in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

The early morning hours should be pretty quiet across the TAF sites
as we await the next plume of gulf moisture ahead of an approaching
wave. In the meantime, expect scattered to broken mid level clouds
streaming overhead, with light SSE winds.

Will notice an increase in surface winds by mid to late morning, and
a shift to more SSW. Low and mid level clouds will increase during
this time, however should stay above the VFR threshold. Will start
prevailing rain shower and VCTS mention by early afternoon at
SDF/BWG, and by mid to late afternoon at LEX. Conditions will likely
drop to at least low MVFR in any storm, however will nail down
better timing with later issuances.

Look for prevailing rain showers to end around sundown at SDF/BWG,
and more toward midnight at LEX. Some light showers may linger into
the overnight, with potential for some MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300125
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
925 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Updated the forecast to remove POPs for the rest of this evening.
Diurnally driven convection has diminished over our area and we now
sit in a cull before the arrival of convection ahead of an
approaching trough.  Largely the overnight period should remain dry
with scattered showers/storms re-entering southwest IN/west central
KY around sunrise.  Only made minor tweaks to temps/dewpts.  Low
temps still look to bottom out in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Convection chances for this evening are pretty much over at the TAF
sites.  Expect VFR conditions overnight with increasing southerly
flow ahead of an approaching trough.  This will create a
mixy atmosphere not conducive to fog.  The next TAF challenge will
be the timing of precipitation accompanying the trough into the area
tomorrow.  The latest model guidance suggests isld-sct showers and
perhaps an isld rumble of thunder may be possible from late morning
through early afternoon.  By mid to late afternoon, we`ll start to
see more organized rounds of convection and MVFR conditions enter
SDF/BWG and then LEX by tomorrow evening.  Expect numerous rounds of
showers and storms late tomorrow through Sunday.  Winds will remain
out of the SSW declining this evening to 3-6 kts overnight, then
increasing to 7-12 kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300125
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
925 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Updated the forecast to remove POPs for the rest of this evening.
Diurnally driven convection has diminished over our area and we now
sit in a cull before the arrival of convection ahead of an
approaching trough.  Largely the overnight period should remain dry
with scattered showers/storms re-entering southwest IN/west central
KY around sunrise.  Only made minor tweaks to temps/dewpts.  Low
temps still look to bottom out in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Convection chances for this evening are pretty much over at the TAF
sites.  Expect VFR conditions overnight with increasing southerly
flow ahead of an approaching trough.  This will create a
mixy atmosphere not conducive to fog.  The next TAF challenge will
be the timing of precipitation accompanying the trough into the area
tomorrow.  The latest model guidance suggests isld-sct showers and
perhaps an isld rumble of thunder may be possible from late morning
through early afternoon.  By mid to late afternoon, we`ll start to
see more organized rounds of convection and MVFR conditions enter
SDF/BWG and then LEX by tomorrow evening.  Expect numerous rounds of
showers and storms late tomorrow through Sunday.  Winds will remain
out of the SSW declining this evening to 3-6 kts overnight, then
increasing to 7-12 kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292317
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
717 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Convection chances for this evening are pretty much over at the TAF
sites.  Expect VFR conditions overnight with increasing southerly
flow ahead of an approaching trough.  This will create a
mixy atmosphere not conducive to fog.  The next TAF challenge will
be the timing of precipitation accompanying the trough into the area
tomorrow.  The latest model guidance suggests isld-sct showers and
perhaps an isld rumble of thunder may be possible from late morning
through early afternoon.  By mid to late afternoon, we`ll start to
see more organized rounds of convection and MVFR conditions enter
SDF/BWG and then LEX by tomorrow evening.  Expect numerous rounds of
showers and storms late tomorrow through Sunday.  Winds will remain
out of the SSW declining this evening to 3-6 kts overnight, then
increasing to 7-12 kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292317
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
717 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Convection chances for this evening are pretty much over at the TAF
sites.  Expect VFR conditions overnight with increasing southerly
flow ahead of an approaching trough.  This will create a
mixy atmosphere not conducive to fog.  The next TAF challenge will
be the timing of precipitation accompanying the trough into the area
tomorrow.  The latest model guidance suggests isld-sct showers and
perhaps an isld rumble of thunder may be possible from late morning
through early afternoon.  By mid to late afternoon, we`ll start to
see more organized rounds of convection and MVFR conditions enter
SDF/BWG and then LEX by tomorrow evening.  Expect numerous rounds of
showers and storms late tomorrow through Sunday.  Winds will remain
out of the SSW declining this evening to 3-6 kts overnight, then
increasing to 7-12 kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291911
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Main challenge in this TAF issuance is afternoon convection and how
it will impact SDF and LEX. Based on what is still a fledgling cu
field, the effective boundary is roughly over SDF and still south of
LEX. Given recent progress, this boundary should be solidly north of
Louisville by the time it triggers any T-storms. Tougher call at
LEX, as there appears to be a narrow window for storms in the middle
of the afternoon. Once the southerly flow becomes better
established, there is actually less boundary-layer moisture as is
evident in the 12Z OHX sounding. Will start with a couple hours of
VCTS but otherwise just a scattered diurnal cu field.

Not too concerned with fog overnight as southerly flow will keep the
boundary layer somewhat mixy. Precip shield could start to creep
into BWG late morning, and SDF around midday Saturday. Not confident
enough in how solid this area of precip will be, so most likely will
just carry VCTS late in the TAF. LEX should stay VFR and rain-free
through 18Z Sat. Winds will pick up to 10-12 kt with mixing, but do
not expect enough heating to generate much gustiness.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291911
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Main challenge in this TAF issuance is afternoon convection and how
it will impact SDF and LEX. Based on what is still a fledgling cu
field, the effective boundary is roughly over SDF and still south of
LEX. Given recent progress, this boundary should be solidly north of
Louisville by the time it triggers any T-storms. Tougher call at
LEX, as there appears to be a narrow window for storms in the middle
of the afternoon. Once the southerly flow becomes better
established, there is actually less boundary-layer moisture as is
evident in the 12Z OHX sounding. Will start with a couple hours of
VCTS but otherwise just a scattered diurnal cu field.

Not too concerned with fog overnight as southerly flow will keep the
boundary layer somewhat mixy. Precip shield could start to creep
into BWG late morning, and SDF around midday Saturday. Not confident
enough in how solid this area of precip will be, so most likely will
just carry VCTS late in the TAF. LEX should stay VFR and rain-free
through 18Z Sat. Winds will pick up to 10-12 kt with mixing, but do
not expect enough heating to generate much gustiness.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........RAS






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