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000
FXUS63 KLMK 241049
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
649 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

Surface high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes and upper-level
ridging directly over the forecast area will push east today as a
front approaches from the west. Southerly winds of 10-15 mph and a
few gusts to around 20 mph today will help usher in warmer
temperatures when compared to yesterday. Highs this afternoon should
range from roughly middle 70s to around 80. Clouds will increase
through the day as the front nears the Lower Ohio Valley.

A low pressure system pushing through the upper Midwest will swing
the aforementioned cold front through the forecast area tonight.
Overall, the system has slowed a bit. Showers and storms will
develop along this front across the Middle Mississippi Valley today
and push east through our area overnight. With marginal instability
to our west, some of these storms may become severe and form a line
of convection ahead of the actual front. However, when the line of
showers and storms reach our area, they should be in a weakening
state. Still, some gusty winds of 40-50 mph are certainly possible
with the strongest storms we might see tonight. The best chance of
the stronger gusts would be along and west of the I-65 corridor,
particularly along the KY/TN border. As this line weakens and pushes
east after midnight, some additional development of mainly showers
will be possible along the actual front. This activity is expected
to push across the area after midnight and through the pre-dawn
hours, exiting to our east Friday morning. Temperatures should stay
mild, with middle 50s for lows.

Some lingering clouds and precip first thing Friday morning will
quickly exit east, with a mostly sunny afternoon expected. Westerly
winds of 12-18 mph and a some gusts of 20-25 mph can be expected.
Temperatures should top out in the lower to middle 70s Friday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

Stalling front that originally looked to push into the region Friday
night/Saturday now looks like it may just make it to our northern
counties, but it still looks to dissipate as ridging builds in aloft
for the weekend. We should stay dry and above normal both days.

Sunday night, a PV anomaly, now over the Gulf of Alaska, will rotate
into the Central Plains. This system will nudge the upper ridge
bringing us the dry weekend east and allow for more moisture to get
into the region. A focus will develop for precipitation in the form
of a warm front attached to a fairly deep low pressure center
somewhere over KS/NE. Models, both deterministic and ensemble, are
in pretty good agreement for this scenario, but they differ on just
how much precip we would get this far east of that system. The
blended model forecast looks similar to our ongoing forecast with
high-end chance (~50%) across the western forecast area and low-end
chance (~30%) in the Bluegrass.

On Monday, the frontal zone looks to sharpen, but most of the models
show our region in the warm sector, continuing to get a feed of
moisture from the south and keeping in good rain chances. The 12Z
Euro was the farthest south with this frontal zone, allowing much
cooler air into the northern half of the forecast area. Will
consider this an outlier for now and keep most of our area above
normal, especially as the new run coming in now is more in line with
the other models.

The forecast for Monday night through Wednesday continues to look
wet, as a second PV anomaly retrogrades across the northern Great
Lakes and becomes wrapped up with the first system, into a large
gyre over the Midwest by Wednesday. Even though this is an unusual
pattern, many of the models are showing it. Exact details of the day
to day forecast are hard to pin down at this point, as we probably
will have some periods with dry slots working over us, but rain
chances continue to look good. Our temperatures will depend on how
far south that upper low settles, so this part of the forecast is
lower confidence.

Given the slow motion of the system, may eventually have to deal
with some flooding issues. For now have QPF from 12Z Sunday through
Wednesday at 1.5-2.5".

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

High pressure currently in control will shift east today as a low
pressure system approaches from the west. Southeasterly winds will
increase to around 10-12 knots with a few gusts to around 18 knots
or so in the afternoon. Winds will become southwesterly and remain
breezy late tonight just ahead of the cold front. Clouds will
increase through the day and lower tonight as the front and
associated precipitation nears. Have VCSH around or after midnight
for all sites, as showers and scattered thunderstorms along an ahead
of the front push across the region. Conditions look to remain VFR
until late in the TAF period for both SDF and BWG, where ceilings
will drop to MVFR (perhaps lower). MVFR cigs at LEX should occur
around and after 12Z Friday. Reduced visibility will also be
possible in heavier convection, but would likely be on a temporary
basis. Conditions should improve as we head into Friday afternoon
and the precip moves east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJP
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........MJP






000
FXUS63 KLMK 241049
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
649 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

Surface high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes and upper-level
ridging directly over the forecast area will push east today as a
front approaches from the west. Southerly winds of 10-15 mph and a
few gusts to around 20 mph today will help usher in warmer
temperatures when compared to yesterday. Highs this afternoon should
range from roughly middle 70s to around 80. Clouds will increase
through the day as the front nears the Lower Ohio Valley.

A low pressure system pushing through the upper Midwest will swing
the aforementioned cold front through the forecast area tonight.
Overall, the system has slowed a bit. Showers and storms will
develop along this front across the Middle Mississippi Valley today
and push east through our area overnight. With marginal instability
to our west, some of these storms may become severe and form a line
of convection ahead of the actual front. However, when the line of
showers and storms reach our area, they should be in a weakening
state. Still, some gusty winds of 40-50 mph are certainly possible
with the strongest storms we might see tonight. The best chance of
the stronger gusts would be along and west of the I-65 corridor,
particularly along the KY/TN border. As this line weakens and pushes
east after midnight, some additional development of mainly showers
will be possible along the actual front. This activity is expected
to push across the area after midnight and through the pre-dawn
hours, exiting to our east Friday morning. Temperatures should stay
mild, with middle 50s for lows.

Some lingering clouds and precip first thing Friday morning will
quickly exit east, with a mostly sunny afternoon expected. Westerly
winds of 12-18 mph and a some gusts of 20-25 mph can be expected.
Temperatures should top out in the lower to middle 70s Friday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

Stalling front that originally looked to push into the region Friday
night/Saturday now looks like it may just make it to our northern
counties, but it still looks to dissipate as ridging builds in aloft
for the weekend. We should stay dry and above normal both days.

Sunday night, a PV anomaly, now over the Gulf of Alaska, will rotate
into the Central Plains. This system will nudge the upper ridge
bringing us the dry weekend east and allow for more moisture to get
into the region. A focus will develop for precipitation in the form
of a warm front attached to a fairly deep low pressure center
somewhere over KS/NE. Models, both deterministic and ensemble, are
in pretty good agreement for this scenario, but they differ on just
how much precip we would get this far east of that system. The
blended model forecast looks similar to our ongoing forecast with
high-end chance (~50%) across the western forecast area and low-end
chance (~30%) in the Bluegrass.

On Monday, the frontal zone looks to sharpen, but most of the models
show our region in the warm sector, continuing to get a feed of
moisture from the south and keeping in good rain chances. The 12Z
Euro was the farthest south with this frontal zone, allowing much
cooler air into the northern half of the forecast area. Will
consider this an outlier for now and keep most of our area above
normal, especially as the new run coming in now is more in line with
the other models.

The forecast for Monday night through Wednesday continues to look
wet, as a second PV anomaly retrogrades across the northern Great
Lakes and becomes wrapped up with the first system, into a large
gyre over the Midwest by Wednesday. Even though this is an unusual
pattern, many of the models are showing it. Exact details of the day
to day forecast are hard to pin down at this point, as we probably
will have some periods with dry slots working over us, but rain
chances continue to look good. Our temperatures will depend on how
far south that upper low settles, so this part of the forecast is
lower confidence.

Given the slow motion of the system, may eventually have to deal
with some flooding issues. For now have QPF from 12Z Sunday through
Wednesday at 1.5-2.5".

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

High pressure currently in control will shift east today as a low
pressure system approaches from the west. Southeasterly winds will
increase to around 10-12 knots with a few gusts to around 18 knots
or so in the afternoon. Winds will become southwesterly and remain
breezy late tonight just ahead of the cold front. Clouds will
increase through the day and lower tonight as the front and
associated precipitation nears. Have VCSH around or after midnight
for all sites, as showers and scattered thunderstorms along an ahead
of the front push across the region. Conditions look to remain VFR
until late in the TAF period for both SDF and BWG, where ceilings
will drop to MVFR (perhaps lower). MVFR cigs at LEX should occur
around and after 12Z Friday. Reduced visibility will also be
possible in heavier convection, but would likely be on a temporary
basis. Conditions should improve as we head into Friday afternoon
and the precip moves east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJP
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........MJP







000
FXUS63 KLMK 240711
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

Surface high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes and upper-level
ridging directly over the forecast area will push east today as a
front approaches from the west. Southerly winds of 10-15 mph and a
few gusts to around 20 mph today will help usher in warmer
temperatures when compared to yesterday. Highs this afternoon should
range from roughly middle 70s to around 80. Clouds will increase
through the day as the front nears the Lower Ohio Valley.

A low pressure system pushing through the upper Midwest will swing
the aforementioned cold front through the forecast area tonight.
Overall, the system has slowed a bit. Showers and storms will
develop along this front across the Middle Mississippi Valley today
and push east through our area overnight. With marginal instability
to our west, some of these storms may become severe and form a line
of convection ahead of the actual front. However, when the line of
showers and storms reach our area, they should be in a weakening
state. Still, some gusty winds of 40-50 mph are certainly possible
with the strongest storms we might see tonight. The best chance of
the stronger gusts would be along and west of the I-65 corridor,
particularly along the KY/TN border. As this line weakens and pushes
east after midnight, some additional development of mainly showers
will be possible along the actual front. This activity is expected
to push across the area after midnight and through the pre-dawn
hours, exiting to our east Friday morning. Temperatures should stay
mild, with middle 50s for lows.

Some lingering clouds and precip first thing Friday morning will
quickly exit east, with a mostly sunny afternoon expected. Westerly
winds of 12-18 mph and a some gusts of 20-25 mph can be expected.
Temperatures should top out in the lower to middle 70s Friday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

Stalling front that originally looked to push into the region Friday
night/Saturday now looks like it may just make it to our northern
counties, but it still looks to dissipate as ridging builds in aloft
for the weekend. We should stay dry and above normal both days.

Sunday night, a PV anomaly, now over the Gulf of Alaska, will rotate
into the Central Plains. This system will nudge the upper ridge
bringing us the dry weekend east and allow for more moisture to get
into the region. A focus will develop for precipitation in the form
of a warm front attached to a fairly deep low pressure center
somewhere over KS/NE. Models, both deterministic and ensemble, are
in pretty good agreement for this scenario, but they differ on just
how much precip we would get this far east of that system. The
blended model forecast looks similar to our ongoing forecast with
high-end chance (~50%) across the western forecast area and low-end
chance (~30%) in the Bluegrass.

On Monday, the frontal zone looks to sharpen, but most of the models
show our region in the warm sector, continuing to get a feed of
moisture from the south and keeping in good rain chances. The 12Z
Euro was the farthest south with this frontal zone, allowing much
cooler air into the northern half of the forecast area. Will
consider this an outlier for now and keep most of our area above
normal, especially as the new run coming in now is more in line with
the other models.

The forecast for Monday night through Wednesday continues to look
wet, as a second PV anomaly retrogrades across the northern Great
Lakes and becomes wrapped up with the first system, into a large
gyre over the Midwest by Wednesday. Even though this is an unusual
pattern, many of the models are showing it. Exact details of the day
to day forecast are hard to pin down at this point, as we probably
will have some periods with dry slots working over us, but rain
chances continue to look good. Our temperatures will depend on how
far south that upper low settles, so this part of the forecast is
lower confidence.

Given the slow motion of the system, may eventually have to deal
with some flooding issues. For now have QPF from 12Z Sunday through
Wednesday at 1.5-2.5".

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
currently in control will shift east today as a low pressure system
approaches from the west. Currently light easterly winds will become
southeasterly around daybreak and increase to around 10-12 knots
with a few gusts to around 18 knots or so in the afternoon. Clouds
will increase through the day and lower tonight as a front and
associated precipitation nears. Showers and scattered thunderstorms
will enter the picture for the last 6 hours or so of the SDF TAF, so
will introduce VCSH at this time. Precip at BWG and LEX will occur
at or after this valid TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJP
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........MJP






000
FXUS63 KLMK 240517
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region tonight with
upper level clouds on the increase as a disturbance passes to our
north.  Low temperatures should bottom out in the low to mid 40s
across the region.

For Thursday, upper level ridging will push east into the region
helping temps warm well into the 70s.  Temps may approach 80 by the
KY/TN border under mostly sunny skies.  SE-S sfc winds will increase
to 10-15 mph with some gusts near 20 mph possible Thurs afternoon.

Thurs night a low pressure system will push through the upper
Midwest dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley.  Storms are
expected to erupt along this front to our west Thurs afternoon and
move east into our region late Thurs evening.  Although generally
speaking storm strength and coverage should be on the decline as
storms move into our region, think that some strong storms may be
possible west of I-65 with gusty winds up to 40 mph possible.  As
convection progresses eastward Thurs night, rumbles of thunder will
still be common but any strong storms should diminish.  Convection
should exit the area during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning.  Low
temps should stay mild in the low to mid 50s Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Friday...

Cold frontal boundary will be exiting our eastern CWA at daybreak
Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies and a steady west wind with
temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s. A few models are holding
onto some QPF along the I-75 corridor for a few hours on Friday
morning, displaying a slower trend. However, will keep the forecast
dry for now until a more clear and slower trend can be established
since we have had dry going for a few days now.

Friday Night - Sunday...

Shallow northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to a
progressive upper ridge over the weekend. Will watch as a moisture
starved cold front approaches the Ohio Valley Friday night and
stalls out Saturday. Will continue to leave the forecast dry across
our north as deep moisture is limited and the best forcing with the
wave embedded in the NW flow aloft passes to our north. The
progressive upper ridge builds in Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to a warmer and continued dry trend to end the weekend.

Temperatures Saturday may end up being tricky depending on where the
frontal boundary actually stalls and then washes out. Regardless,
lower 70s is a reasonable bet across our north with upper 70s
touching 80 across our south. Sunday should be warmer, at least
across our south, if not the whole CWA, however will keep the
gradient in to account for uncertainty in frontal position. Lows 70s
north to around 80 south. Lows will be around 50 Friday night, and
slightly milder in the low and mid 50s Saturday night.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers significantly as we start the new work week as
models struggle with the individual details surrounding the
evolution of a complex upper pattern. What can be said with some
confidence is that we will enter a much wetter and cooler setup
heading into mid week as a closed upper low wobbles slowly eastward
against blocking flow downstream. The best chances for showers or
storms will begin to increase by Sunday evening as a reinforced warm
front pushes up through the area from the southeast. This is a
slightly slower trend likely due to the downstream blocking feature.

Generally speaking, it appears the Ohio Valley will be caught in a
baroclinic zone between the closed upper low to our west and gyres
of energy rotating around a closed upper low over the northern
Atlantic. A look at the 500 mb heights reveals one of the more
impressive cols i`ve seen for Monday night Tuesday. At this point,
the Ohio Valley looks to be on the southern side of the col, with
plenty of moisture transport ahead of the main low to our west on
deep southwest flow. Will call for likely chances of showers and
storms during this time. Being on the warm side of the boundary, we
should be able to still see low and even mid 70s, however diurnal
trends may get smaller and smaller each day as we head into mid
week.

Upper low looks to wobble somewhere over eastern CONUS into midweek,
with the center closer to the Ohio Valley. By Wednesday, highs in
the 50s and lows back into the 30s are not out of the question,
along with continued scattered to numerous shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
currently in control will shift east today as a low pressure system
approaches from the west. Currently light easterly winds will become
southeasterly around daybreak and increase to around 10-12 knots
with a few gusts to around 18 knots or so in the afternoon. Clouds
will increase through the day and lower tonight as a front and
associated precipitation nears. Showers and scattered thunderstorms
will enter the picture for the last 6 hours or so of the SDF TAF, so
will introduce VCSH at this time. Precip at BWG and LEX will occur
at or after this valid TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJP







000
FXUS63 KLMK 240517
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region tonight with
upper level clouds on the increase as a disturbance passes to our
north.  Low temperatures should bottom out in the low to mid 40s
across the region.

For Thursday, upper level ridging will push east into the region
helping temps warm well into the 70s.  Temps may approach 80 by the
KY/TN border under mostly sunny skies.  SE-S sfc winds will increase
to 10-15 mph with some gusts near 20 mph possible Thurs afternoon.

Thurs night a low pressure system will push through the upper
Midwest dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley.  Storms are
expected to erupt along this front to our west Thurs afternoon and
move east into our region late Thurs evening.  Although generally
speaking storm strength and coverage should be on the decline as
storms move into our region, think that some strong storms may be
possible west of I-65 with gusty winds up to 40 mph possible.  As
convection progresses eastward Thurs night, rumbles of thunder will
still be common but any strong storms should diminish.  Convection
should exit the area during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning.  Low
temps should stay mild in the low to mid 50s Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Friday...

Cold frontal boundary will be exiting our eastern CWA at daybreak
Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies and a steady west wind with
temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s. A few models are holding
onto some QPF along the I-75 corridor for a few hours on Friday
morning, displaying a slower trend. However, will keep the forecast
dry for now until a more clear and slower trend can be established
since we have had dry going for a few days now.

Friday Night - Sunday...

Shallow northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to a
progressive upper ridge over the weekend. Will watch as a moisture
starved cold front approaches the Ohio Valley Friday night and
stalls out Saturday. Will continue to leave the forecast dry across
our north as deep moisture is limited and the best forcing with the
wave embedded in the NW flow aloft passes to our north. The
progressive upper ridge builds in Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to a warmer and continued dry trend to end the weekend.

Temperatures Saturday may end up being tricky depending on where the
frontal boundary actually stalls and then washes out. Regardless,
lower 70s is a reasonable bet across our north with upper 70s
touching 80 across our south. Sunday should be warmer, at least
across our south, if not the whole CWA, however will keep the
gradient in to account for uncertainty in frontal position. Lows 70s
north to around 80 south. Lows will be around 50 Friday night, and
slightly milder in the low and mid 50s Saturday night.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers significantly as we start the new work week as
models struggle with the individual details surrounding the
evolution of a complex upper pattern. What can be said with some
confidence is that we will enter a much wetter and cooler setup
heading into mid week as a closed upper low wobbles slowly eastward
against blocking flow downstream. The best chances for showers or
storms will begin to increase by Sunday evening as a reinforced warm
front pushes up through the area from the southeast. This is a
slightly slower trend likely due to the downstream blocking feature.

Generally speaking, it appears the Ohio Valley will be caught in a
baroclinic zone between the closed upper low to our west and gyres
of energy rotating around a closed upper low over the northern
Atlantic. A look at the 500 mb heights reveals one of the more
impressive cols i`ve seen for Monday night Tuesday. At this point,
the Ohio Valley looks to be on the southern side of the col, with
plenty of moisture transport ahead of the main low to our west on
deep southwest flow. Will call for likely chances of showers and
storms during this time. Being on the warm side of the boundary, we
should be able to still see low and even mid 70s, however diurnal
trends may get smaller and smaller each day as we head into mid
week.

Upper low looks to wobble somewhere over eastern CONUS into midweek,
with the center closer to the Ohio Valley. By Wednesday, highs in
the 50s and lows back into the 30s are not out of the question,
along with continued scattered to numerous shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
currently in control will shift east today as a low pressure system
approaches from the west. Currently light easterly winds will become
southeasterly around daybreak and increase to around 10-12 knots
with a few gusts to around 18 knots or so in the afternoon. Clouds
will increase through the day and lower tonight as a front and
associated precipitation nears. Showers and scattered thunderstorms
will enter the picture for the last 6 hours or so of the SDF TAF, so
will introduce VCSH at this time. Precip at BWG and LEX will occur
at or after this valid TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJP






000
FXUS63 KLMK 232253
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region tonight with
upper level clouds on the increase as a disturbance passes to our
north.  Low temperatures should bottom out in the low to mid 40s
across the region.

For Thursday, upper level ridging will push east into the region
helping temps warm well into the 70s.  Temps may approach 80 by the
KY/TN border under mostly sunny skies.  SE-S sfc winds will increase
to 10-15 mph with some gusts near 20 mph possible Thurs afternoon.

Thurs night a low pressure system will push through the upper
Midwest dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley.  Storms are
expected to erupt along this front to our west Thurs afternoon and
move east into our region late Thurs evening.  Although generally
speaking storm strength and coverage should be on the decline as
storms move into our region, think that some strong storms may be
possible west of I-65 with gusty winds up to 40 mph possible.  As
convection progresses eastward Thurs night, rumbles of thunder will
still be common but any strong storms should diminish.  Convection
should exit the area during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning.  Low
temps should stay mild in the low to mid 50s Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Friday...

Cold frontal boundary will be exiting our eastern CWA at daybreak
Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies and a steady west wind with
temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s. A few models are holding
onto some QPF along the I-75 corridor for a few hours on Friday
morning, displaying a slower trend. However, will keep the forecast
dry for now until a more clear and slower trend can be established
since we have had dry going for a few days now.

Friday Night - Sunday...

Shallow northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to a
progressive upper ridge over the weekend. Will watch as a moisture
starved cold front approaches the Ohio Valley Friday night and
stalls out Saturday. Will continue to leave the forecast dry across
our north as deep moisture is limited and the best forcing with the
wave embedded in the NW flow aloft passes to our north. The
progressive upper ridge builds in Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to a warmer and continued dry trend to end the weekend.

Temperatures Saturday may end up being tricky depending on where the
frontal boundary actually stalls and then washes out. Regardless,
lower 70s is a reasonable bet across our north with upper 70s
touching 80 across our south. Sunday should be warmer, at least
across our south, if not the whole CWA, however will keep the
gradient in to account for uncertainty in frontal position. Lows 70s
north to around 80 south. Lows will be around 50 Friday night, and
slightly milder in the low and mid 50s Saturday night.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers significantly as we start the new work week as
models struggle with the individual details surrounding the
evolution of a complex upper pattern. What can be said with some
confidence is that we will enter a much wetter and cooler setup
heading into mid week as a closed upper low wobbles slowly eastward
against blocking flow downstream. The best chances for showers or
storms will begin to increase by Sunday evening as a reinforced warm
front pushes up through the area from the southeast. This is a
slightly slower trend likely due to the downstream blocking feature.

Generally speaking, it appears the Ohio Valley will be caught in a
baroclinic zone between the closed upper low to our west and gyres
of energy rotating around a closed upper low over the northern
Atlantic. A look at the 500 mb heights reveals one of the more
impressive cols i`ve seen for Monday night Tuesday. At this point,
the Ohio Valley looks to be on the southern side of the col, with
plenty of moisture transport ahead of the main low to our west on
deep southwest flow. Will call for likely chances of showers and
storms during this time. Being on the warm side of the boundary, we
should be able to still see low and even mid 70s, however diurnal
trends may get smaller and smaller each day as we head into mid
week.

Upper low looks to wobble somewhere over eastern CONUS into midweek,
with the center closer to the Ohio Valley. By Wednesday, highs in
the 50s and lows back into the 30s are not out of the question,
along with continued scattered to numerous shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
will remain in control tonight and shift east tomorrow as a low
pressure system approaches. Winds will be light and variable
tonight, shifting from northeasterly to southeasterly by tomorrow
morning. Winds will increase to around 10-12 knots through the day
with a few gusts expected at BWG. Clear skies this evening will
become partly to mostly cloudy overnight as a mid to upper level
cloud deck moves in ahead of the system.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 232253
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region tonight with
upper level clouds on the increase as a disturbance passes to our
north.  Low temperatures should bottom out in the low to mid 40s
across the region.

For Thursday, upper level ridging will push east into the region
helping temps warm well into the 70s.  Temps may approach 80 by the
KY/TN border under mostly sunny skies.  SE-S sfc winds will increase
to 10-15 mph with some gusts near 20 mph possible Thurs afternoon.

Thurs night a low pressure system will push through the upper
Midwest dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley.  Storms are
expected to erupt along this front to our west Thurs afternoon and
move east into our region late Thurs evening.  Although generally
speaking storm strength and coverage should be on the decline as
storms move into our region, think that some strong storms may be
possible west of I-65 with gusty winds up to 40 mph possible.  As
convection progresses eastward Thurs night, rumbles of thunder will
still be common but any strong storms should diminish.  Convection
should exit the area during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning.  Low
temps should stay mild in the low to mid 50s Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Friday...

Cold frontal boundary will be exiting our eastern CWA at daybreak
Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies and a steady west wind with
temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s. A few models are holding
onto some QPF along the I-75 corridor for a few hours on Friday
morning, displaying a slower trend. However, will keep the forecast
dry for now until a more clear and slower trend can be established
since we have had dry going for a few days now.

Friday Night - Sunday...

Shallow northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to a
progressive upper ridge over the weekend. Will watch as a moisture
starved cold front approaches the Ohio Valley Friday night and
stalls out Saturday. Will continue to leave the forecast dry across
our north as deep moisture is limited and the best forcing with the
wave embedded in the NW flow aloft passes to our north. The
progressive upper ridge builds in Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to a warmer and continued dry trend to end the weekend.

Temperatures Saturday may end up being tricky depending on where the
frontal boundary actually stalls and then washes out. Regardless,
lower 70s is a reasonable bet across our north with upper 70s
touching 80 across our south. Sunday should be warmer, at least
across our south, if not the whole CWA, however will keep the
gradient in to account for uncertainty in frontal position. Lows 70s
north to around 80 south. Lows will be around 50 Friday night, and
slightly milder in the low and mid 50s Saturday night.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers significantly as we start the new work week as
models struggle with the individual details surrounding the
evolution of a complex upper pattern. What can be said with some
confidence is that we will enter a much wetter and cooler setup
heading into mid week as a closed upper low wobbles slowly eastward
against blocking flow downstream. The best chances for showers or
storms will begin to increase by Sunday evening as a reinforced warm
front pushes up through the area from the southeast. This is a
slightly slower trend likely due to the downstream blocking feature.

Generally speaking, it appears the Ohio Valley will be caught in a
baroclinic zone between the closed upper low to our west and gyres
of energy rotating around a closed upper low over the northern
Atlantic. A look at the 500 mb heights reveals one of the more
impressive cols i`ve seen for Monday night Tuesday. At this point,
the Ohio Valley looks to be on the southern side of the col, with
plenty of moisture transport ahead of the main low to our west on
deep southwest flow. Will call for likely chances of showers and
storms during this time. Being on the warm side of the boundary, we
should be able to still see low and even mid 70s, however diurnal
trends may get smaller and smaller each day as we head into mid
week.

Upper low looks to wobble somewhere over eastern CONUS into midweek,
with the center closer to the Ohio Valley. By Wednesday, highs in
the 50s and lows back into the 30s are not out of the question,
along with continued scattered to numerous shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
will remain in control tonight and shift east tomorrow as a low
pressure system approaches. Winds will be light and variable
tonight, shifting from northeasterly to southeasterly by tomorrow
morning. Winds will increase to around 10-12 knots through the day
with a few gusts expected at BWG. Clear skies this evening will
become partly to mostly cloudy overnight as a mid to upper level
cloud deck moves in ahead of the system.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 231923
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region tonight with
upper level clouds on the increase as a disturbance passes to our
north.  Low temperatures should bottom out in the low to mid 40s
across the region.

For Thursday, upper level ridging will push east into the region
helping temps warm well into the 70s.  Temps may approach 80 by the
KY/TN border under mostly sunny skies.  SE-S sfc winds will increase
to 10-15 mph with some gusts near 20 mph possible Thurs afternoon.

Thurs night a low pressure system will push through the upper
Midwest dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley.  Storms are
expected to erupt along this front to our west Thurs afternoon and
move east into our region late Thurs evening.  Although generally
speaking storm strength and coverage should be on the decline as
storms move into our region, think that some strong storms may be
possible west of I-65 with gusty winds up to 40 mph possible.  As
convection progresses eastward Thurs night, rumbles of thunder will
still be common but any strong storms should diminish.  Convection
should exit the area during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning.  Low
temps should stay mild in the low to mid 50s Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Friday...

Cold frontal boundary will be exiting our eastern CWA at daybreak
Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies and a steady west wind with
temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s. A few models are holding
onto some QPF along the I-75 corridor for a few hours on Friday
morning, displaying a slower trend. However, will keep the forecast
dry for now until a more clear and slower trend can be established
since we have had dry going for a few days now.

Friday Night - Sunday...

Shallow northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to a
progressive upper ridge over the weekend. Will watch as a moisture
starved cold front approaches the Ohio Valley Friday night and
stalls out Saturday. Will continue to leave the forecast dry across
our north as deep moisture is limited and the best forcing with the
wave embedded in the NW flow aloft passes to our north. The
progressive upper ridge builds in Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to a warmer and continued dry trend to end the weekend.

Temperatures Saturday may end up being tricky depending on where the
frontal boundary actually stalls and then washes out. Regardless,
lower 70s is a reasonable bet across our north with upper 70s
touching 80 across our south. Sunday should be warmer, at least
across our south, if not the whole CWA, however will keep the
gradient in to account for uncertainty in frontal position. Lows 70s
north to around 80 south. Lows will be around 50 Friday night, and
slightly milder in the low and mid 50s Saturday night.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers significantly as we start the new work week as
models struggle with the individual details surrounding the
evolution of a complex upper pattern. What can be said with some
confidence is that we will enter a much wetter and cooler setup
heading into mid week as a closed upper low wobbles slowly eastward
against blocking flow downstream. The best chances for showers or
storms will begin to increase by Sunday evening as a reinforced warm
front pushes up through the area from the southeast. This is a
slightly slower trend likely due to the downstream blocking feature.

Generally speaking, it appears the Ohio Valley will be caught in a
baroclinic zone between the closed upper low to our west and gyres
of energy rotating around a closed upper low over the northern
Atlantic. A look at the 500 mb heights reveals one of the more
impressive cols i`ve seen for Monday night Tuesday. At this point,
the Ohio Valley looks to be on the southern side of the col, with
plenty of moisture transport ahead of the main low to our west on
deep southwest flow. Will call for likely chances of showers and
storms during this time. Being on the warm side of the boundary, we
should be able to still see low and even mid 70s, however diurnal
trends may get smaller and smaller each day as we head into mid
week.

Upper low looks to wobble somewhere over eastern CONUS into midweek,
with the center closer to the Ohio Valley. By Wednesday, highs in
the 50s and lows back into the 30s are not out of the question,
along with continued scattered to numerous shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of our region through the
TAF period.  Expect VFR flying conditions with upper level clouds
gradually increasing tonight and tomorrow from a disturbance to our
north.  Winds will be from the NE today under 7 kts becoming light
and easterly tonight.  Then expect winds to pick up into the 6-8 kt
range from the SE by mid morning tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 231923
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region tonight with
upper level clouds on the increase as a disturbance passes to our
north.  Low temperatures should bottom out in the low to mid 40s
across the region.

For Thursday, upper level ridging will push east into the region
helping temps warm well into the 70s.  Temps may approach 80 by the
KY/TN border under mostly sunny skies.  SE-S sfc winds will increase
to 10-15 mph with some gusts near 20 mph possible Thurs afternoon.

Thurs night a low pressure system will push through the upper
Midwest dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley.  Storms are
expected to erupt along this front to our west Thurs afternoon and
move east into our region late Thurs evening.  Although generally
speaking storm strength and coverage should be on the decline as
storms move into our region, think that some strong storms may be
possible west of I-65 with gusty winds up to 40 mph possible.  As
convection progresses eastward Thurs night, rumbles of thunder will
still be common but any strong storms should diminish.  Convection
should exit the area during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning.  Low
temps should stay mild in the low to mid 50s Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Friday...

Cold frontal boundary will be exiting our eastern CWA at daybreak
Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies and a steady west wind with
temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s. A few models are holding
onto some QPF along the I-75 corridor for a few hours on Friday
morning, displaying a slower trend. However, will keep the forecast
dry for now until a more clear and slower trend can be established
since we have had dry going for a few days now.

Friday Night - Sunday...

Shallow northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to a
progressive upper ridge over the weekend. Will watch as a moisture
starved cold front approaches the Ohio Valley Friday night and
stalls out Saturday. Will continue to leave the forecast dry across
our north as deep moisture is limited and the best forcing with the
wave embedded in the NW flow aloft passes to our north. The
progressive upper ridge builds in Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to a warmer and continued dry trend to end the weekend.

Temperatures Saturday may end up being tricky depending on where the
frontal boundary actually stalls and then washes out. Regardless,
lower 70s is a reasonable bet across our north with upper 70s
touching 80 across our south. Sunday should be warmer, at least
across our south, if not the whole CWA, however will keep the
gradient in to account for uncertainty in frontal position. Lows 70s
north to around 80 south. Lows will be around 50 Friday night, and
slightly milder in the low and mid 50s Saturday night.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers significantly as we start the new work week as
models struggle with the individual details surrounding the
evolution of a complex upper pattern. What can be said with some
confidence is that we will enter a much wetter and cooler setup
heading into mid week as a closed upper low wobbles slowly eastward
against blocking flow downstream. The best chances for showers or
storms will begin to increase by Sunday evening as a reinforced warm
front pushes up through the area from the southeast. This is a
slightly slower trend likely due to the downstream blocking feature.

Generally speaking, it appears the Ohio Valley will be caught in a
baroclinic zone between the closed upper low to our west and gyres
of energy rotating around a closed upper low over the northern
Atlantic. A look at the 500 mb heights reveals one of the more
impressive cols i`ve seen for Monday night Tuesday. At this point,
the Ohio Valley looks to be on the southern side of the col, with
plenty of moisture transport ahead of the main low to our west on
deep southwest flow. Will call for likely chances of showers and
storms during this time. Being on the warm side of the boundary, we
should be able to still see low and even mid 70s, however diurnal
trends may get smaller and smaller each day as we head into mid
week.

Upper low looks to wobble somewhere over eastern CONUS into midweek,
with the center closer to the Ohio Valley. By Wednesday, highs in
the 50s and lows back into the 30s are not out of the question,
along with continued scattered to numerous shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of our region through the
TAF period.  Expect VFR flying conditions with upper level clouds
gradually increasing tonight and tomorrow from a disturbance to our
north.  Winds will be from the NE today under 7 kts becoming light
and easterly tonight.  Then expect winds to pick up into the 6-8 kt
range from the SE by mid morning tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 231736
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Updated the forecast to increase afternoon high temps a few
degrees.  Plenty of sunshine is expected today, but cooler drier air
sinking south with sfc high pressure should hold high temps in the
60s for the most part although 70 degrees will be possible over
south central KY.  Went a few degrees over MOS guidance with this
update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of our region through the
TAF period.  Expect VFR flying conditions with upper level clouds
gradually increasing tonight and tomorrow from a disturbance to our
north.  Winds will be from the NE today under 7 kts becoming light
and easterly tonight.  Then expect winds to pick up into the 6-8 kt
range from the SE by mid morning tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 231736
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Updated the forecast to increase afternoon high temps a few
degrees.  Plenty of sunshine is expected today, but cooler drier air
sinking south with sfc high pressure should hold high temps in the
60s for the most part although 70 degrees will be possible over
south central KY.  Went a few degrees over MOS guidance with this
update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of our region through the
TAF period.  Expect VFR flying conditions with upper level clouds
gradually increasing tonight and tomorrow from a disturbance to our
north.  Winds will be from the NE today under 7 kts becoming light
and easterly tonight.  Then expect winds to pick up into the 6-8 kt
range from the SE by mid morning tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 231514
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1114 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Updated the forecast to increase afternoon high temps a few
degrees.  Plenty of sunshine is expected today, but cooler drier air
sinking south with sfc high pressure should hold high temps in the
60s for the most part although 70 degrees will be possible over
south central KY.  Went a few degrees over MOS guidance with this
update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Light N-NE winds and clear skies through the day as high pressure
over Wisconsin continues to build south into the Ohio Valley.
Surface ridge axis will work its way into eastern Kentucky this
evening, initially shifting surface winds to easterly but opening
the door for return flow aloft. Could see mid-level ceilings in SDF
and LEX tonight as a warm front sets up to our north, but no
significant operational impacts are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 231514
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1114 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Updated the forecast to increase afternoon high temps a few
degrees.  Plenty of sunshine is expected today, but cooler drier air
sinking south with sfc high pressure should hold high temps in the
60s for the most part although 70 degrees will be possible over
south central KY.  Went a few degrees over MOS guidance with this
update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Light N-NE winds and clear skies through the day as high pressure
over Wisconsin continues to build south into the Ohio Valley.
Surface ridge axis will work its way into eastern Kentucky this
evening, initially shifting surface winds to easterly but opening
the door for return flow aloft. Could see mid-level ceilings in SDF
and LEX tonight as a warm front sets up to our north, but no
significant operational impacts are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 231050
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
650 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Light N-NE winds and clear skies through the day as high pressure
over Wisconsin continues to build south into the Ohio Valley.
Surface ridge axis will work its way into eastern Kentucky this
evening, initially shifting surface winds to easterly but opening
the door for return flow aloft. Could see mid-level ceilings in SDF
and LEX tonight as a warm front sets up to our north, but no
significant operational impacts are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Still a decent northerly gradient across central Kentucky as of 04Z,
keeping winds up around 10 kt. Expect the winds to diminish to 6 kt
or less within the next 2-3 hrs, with light N-NE winds and clear
skies continuing through at least late afternoon as high pressure
ridges into the area from the Great Lakes. Warm advection ahead of
the next system could bring in a mid-level ceiling late Wednesday
evening, but believe it will be late enough that it was only worthy
of inclusion at SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 230705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Still a decent northerly gradient across central Kentucky as of 04Z,
keeping winds up around 10 kt. Expect the winds to diminish to 6 kt
or less within the next 2-3 hrs, with light N-NE winds and clear
skies continuing through at least late afternoon as high pressure
ridges into the area from the Great Lakes. Warm advection ahead of
the next system could bring in a mid-level ceiling late Wednesday
evening, but believe it will be late enough that it was only worthy
of inclusion at SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230453
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1253 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

A cold front has passed through the region today.  Behind it, we can
expect gusty northerly winds (up to 25 mph) late this afternoon and
early evening with winds declining after sunset.

Skies should clear this evening as a drier, colder airmass works
into the region under sfc high pressure.  A decent rad cooling night
looks to be in store although winds will stay slightly elevated
aloft with 3-8 mph northerly sfc winds which will limit the cooling
somewhat.  Still overnight temps look to be quite chilly for this
time of year dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Sheltered
locations and typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region may reach
the mid 30s with patchy frost formation possible.  Thus, will
mention in an SPS the patchy frost potential.

Perhaps of greater concern will be an enhanced wildfire danger for
Wednesday afternoon.  Dry air aloft looks to mix down to the sfc
resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the mid 20
percent range.  Already dry ground fuels (5-8%) combined with low
humidity values will pose a risk for any fires to rapidly spread out
of control.  NNE winds will remain fairly tame in the 5-10 mph.
Still, think that an SPS mention for enhanced wildfire danger is in
order for tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Other than that, tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny with high
temperatures ranging throughout the 60s.

Wed night dry conditions will continue with upper level clouds
increasing.  Low temperatures will rebound into the 40s as ridging
and warmer air arrives.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This period begins dry as the aforementioned surface high moves off
toward the eastern seaboard and upper-level ridging across the south
moves along with it. By late Thursday night into early Friday, a
trough scooting across the Midwest and its associated surface
boundary quickly traverses through with models generally agreeing
that the precip will have exited by midday Friday. The ECMWF is the
outlier for PoPs Friday as it`s a bit slower clearing central
Kentucky and southern Indiana out. However the timing ends up
playing out, once the precip exits off to the east on Friday, expect
one more round of dry conditions through the middle of the
weekend.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, Sunday onward looks
to be rather unsettled as an upper low spins across the center of
the country. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is depicted
on the 12z GFS and ECMWF to drape just north of the forecast area,
oriented east-west across the center of Indiana. Meanwhile, a
surface low associated with the upper low deepens and seemingly
wants to ride the track of where the boundary lays out late Monday
night through Tuesday. While the 12Z ECMWF has come into better
agreement with the 12Z GFS, there are still noticeable differences
temporally and spatially when considering how this system will
evolve. Therefore, have kept just chance PoPs from Sunday through
Tuesday until we get closer to that time frame and can grab a better
handle. It likely won`t rain during the entire time frame but since
we are approaching an unsettled weather pattern that won`t be
arriving until at least 5 days from today, the uncertainties force
PoP wording during the 12-hour time periods for early next week.
Given face value of the 12z model runs, late Monday through Tuesday
look to have the highest chances at this time. With respect to
thunder possibilities, model soundings point toward the same time
frame of late Monday through Tuesday and have indicated as such in
this forecast update.

Temperatures to start the long-term will be near to slightly above
normal with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday through Saturday. The corresponding low temps will respond
similarly with mid to upper 50s Thursday night, lower 50s Friday
night, and then upper 40s across the north and lower 50s across the
south Saturday night. The temperature forecast then gets a bit more
tricky as cloud cover and precip could certainly play havoc until
the real airmass change comes through in the middle of next week.
Generally speaking though, cooler temps can be anticipated from
Sunday onward, especially as that upper low approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Still a decent northerly gradient across central Kentucky as of 04Z,
keeping winds up around 10 kt. Expect the winds to diminish to 6 kt
or less within the next 2-3 hrs, with light N-NE winds and clear
skies continuing through at least late afternoon as high pressure
ridges into the area from the Great Lakes. Warm advection ahead of
the next system could bring in a mid-level ceiling late Wednesday
evening, but believe it will be late enough that it was only worthy
of inclusion at SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 222305
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
705 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

A cold front has passed through the region today.  Behind it, we can
expect gusty northerly winds (up to 25 mph) late this afternoon and
early evening with winds declining after sunset.

Skies should clear this evening as a drier, colder airmass works
into the region under sfc high pressure.  A decent rad cooling night
looks to be in store although winds will stay slightly elevated
aloft with 3-8 mph northerly sfc winds which will limit the cooling
somewhat.  Still overnight temps look to be quite chilly for this
time of year dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Sheltered
locations and typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region may reach
the mid 30s with patchy frost formation possible.  Thus, will
mention in an SPS the patchy frost potential.

Perhaps of greater concern will be an enhanced wildfire danger for
Wednesday afternoon.  Dry air aloft looks to mix down to the sfc
resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the mid 20
percent range.  Already dry ground fuels (5-8%) combined with low
humidity values will pose a risk for any fires to rapidly spread out
of control.  NNE winds will remain fairly tame in the 5-10 mph.
Still, think that an SPS mention for enhanced wildfire danger is in
order for tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Other than that, tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny with high
temperatures ranging throughout the 60s.

Wed night dry conditions will continue with upper level clouds
increasing.  Low temperatures will rebound into the 40s as ridging
and warmer air arrives.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This period begins dry as the aforementioned surface high moves off
toward the eastern seaboard and upper-level ridging across the south
moves along with it. By late Thursday night into early Friday, a
trough scooting across the Midwest and its associated surface
boundary quickly traverses through with models generally agreeing
that the precip will have exited by midday Friday. The ECMWF is the
outlier for PoPs Friday as it`s a bit slower clearing central
Kentucky and southern Indiana out. However the timing ends up
playing out, once the precip exits off to the east on Friday, expect
one more round of dry conditions through the middle of the
weekend.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, Sunday onward looks
to be rather unsettled as an upper low spins across the center of
the country. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is depicted
on the 12z GFS and ECMWF to drape just north of the forecast area,
oriented east-west across the center of Indiana. Meanwhile, a
surface low associated with the upper low deepens and seemingly
wants to ride the track of where the boundary lays out late Monday
night through Tuesday. While the 12Z ECMWF has come into better
agreement with the 12Z GFS, there are still noticeable differences
temporally and spatially when considering how this system will
evolve. Therefore, have kept just chance PoPs from Sunday through
Tuesday until we get closer to that time frame and can grab a better
handle. It likely won`t rain during the entire time frame but since
we are approaching an unsettled weather pattern that won`t be
arriving until at least 5 days from today, the uncertainties force
PoP wording during the 12-hour time periods for early next week.
Given face value of the 12z model runs, late Monday through Tuesday
look to have the highest chances at this time. With respect to
thunder possibilities, model soundings point toward the same time
frame of late Monday through Tuesday and have indicated as such in
this forecast update.

Temperatures to start the long-term will be near to slightly above
normal with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday through Saturday. The corresponding low temps will respond
similarly with mid to upper 50s Thursday night, lower 50s Friday
night, and then upper 40s across the north and lower 50s across the
south Saturday night. The temperature forecast then gets a bit more
tricky as cloud cover and precip could certainly play havoc until
the real airmass change comes through in the middle of next week.
Generally speaking though, cooler temps can be anticipated from
Sunday onward, especially as that upper low approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Clear skies are anticipated tonight with north northwest winds
initially at around 11kt lessening to northerly at around 5kt by
dawn. VFR flying conditions expected Wednesday and Wednesday evening
with only a few stray cirrus. Winds will shift to the northeast and
remain at or below 7kt Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 222305
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
705 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

A cold front has passed through the region today.  Behind it, we can
expect gusty northerly winds (up to 25 mph) late this afternoon and
early evening with winds declining after sunset.

Skies should clear this evening as a drier, colder airmass works
into the region under sfc high pressure.  A decent rad cooling night
looks to be in store although winds will stay slightly elevated
aloft with 3-8 mph northerly sfc winds which will limit the cooling
somewhat.  Still overnight temps look to be quite chilly for this
time of year dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Sheltered
locations and typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region may reach
the mid 30s with patchy frost formation possible.  Thus, will
mention in an SPS the patchy frost potential.

Perhaps of greater concern will be an enhanced wildfire danger for
Wednesday afternoon.  Dry air aloft looks to mix down to the sfc
resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the mid 20
percent range.  Already dry ground fuels (5-8%) combined with low
humidity values will pose a risk for any fires to rapidly spread out
of control.  NNE winds will remain fairly tame in the 5-10 mph.
Still, think that an SPS mention for enhanced wildfire danger is in
order for tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Other than that, tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny with high
temperatures ranging throughout the 60s.

Wed night dry conditions will continue with upper level clouds
increasing.  Low temperatures will rebound into the 40s as ridging
and warmer air arrives.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This period begins dry as the aforementioned surface high moves off
toward the eastern seaboard and upper-level ridging across the south
moves along with it. By late Thursday night into early Friday, a
trough scooting across the Midwest and its associated surface
boundary quickly traverses through with models generally agreeing
that the precip will have exited by midday Friday. The ECMWF is the
outlier for PoPs Friday as it`s a bit slower clearing central
Kentucky and southern Indiana out. However the timing ends up
playing out, once the precip exits off to the east on Friday, expect
one more round of dry conditions through the middle of the
weekend.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, Sunday onward looks
to be rather unsettled as an upper low spins across the center of
the country. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is depicted
on the 12z GFS and ECMWF to drape just north of the forecast area,
oriented east-west across the center of Indiana. Meanwhile, a
surface low associated with the upper low deepens and seemingly
wants to ride the track of where the boundary lays out late Monday
night through Tuesday. While the 12Z ECMWF has come into better
agreement with the 12Z GFS, there are still noticeable differences
temporally and spatially when considering how this system will
evolve. Therefore, have kept just chance PoPs from Sunday through
Tuesday until we get closer to that time frame and can grab a better
handle. It likely won`t rain during the entire time frame but since
we are approaching an unsettled weather pattern that won`t be
arriving until at least 5 days from today, the uncertainties force
PoP wording during the 12-hour time periods for early next week.
Given face value of the 12z model runs, late Monday through Tuesday
look to have the highest chances at this time. With respect to
thunder possibilities, model soundings point toward the same time
frame of late Monday through Tuesday and have indicated as such in
this forecast update.

Temperatures to start the long-term will be near to slightly above
normal with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday through Saturday. The corresponding low temps will respond
similarly with mid to upper 50s Thursday night, lower 50s Friday
night, and then upper 40s across the north and lower 50s across the
south Saturday night. The temperature forecast then gets a bit more
tricky as cloud cover and precip could certainly play havoc until
the real airmass change comes through in the middle of next week.
Generally speaking though, cooler temps can be anticipated from
Sunday onward, especially as that upper low approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Clear skies are anticipated tonight with north northwest winds
initially at around 11kt lessening to northerly at around 5kt by
dawn. VFR flying conditions expected Wednesday and Wednesday evening
with only a few stray cirrus. Winds will shift to the northeast and
remain at or below 7kt Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221925
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

A cold front has passed through the region today.  Behind it, we can
expect gusty northerly winds (up to 25 mph) late this afternoon and
early evening with winds declining after sunset.

Skies should clear this evening as a drier, colder airmass works
into the region under sfc high pressure.  A decent rad cooling night
looks to be in store although winds will stay slightly elevated
aloft with 3-8 mph northerly sfc winds which will limit the cooling
somewhat.  Still overnight temps look to be quite chilly for this
time of year dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Sheltered
locations and typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region may reach
the mid 30s with patchy frost formation possible.  Thus, will
mention in an SPS the patchy frost potential.

Perhaps of greater concern will be an enhanced wildfire danger for
Wednesday afternoon.  Dry air aloft looks to mix down to the sfc
resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the mid 20
percent range.  Already dry ground fuels (5-8%) combined with low
humidity values will pose a risk for any fires to rapidly spread out
of control.  NNE winds will remain fairly tame in the 5-10 mph.
Still, think that an SPS mention for enhanced wildfire danger is in
order for tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Other than that, tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny with high
temperatures ranging throughout the 60s.

Wed night dry conditions will continue with upper level clouds
increasing.  Low temperatures will rebound into the 40s as ridging
and warmer air arrives.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This period begins dry as the aforementioned surface high moves off
toward the eastern seaboard and upper-level ridging across the south
moves along with it. By late Thursday night into early Friday, a
trough scooting across the Midwest and its associated surface
boundary quickly traverses through with models generally agreeing
that the precip will have exited by midday Friday. The ECMWF is the
outlier for PoPs Friday as it`s a bit slower clearing central
Kentucky and southern Indiana out. However the timing ends up
playing out, once the precip exits off to the east on Friday, expect
one more round of dry conditions through the middle of the
weekend.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, Sunday onward looks
to be rather unsettled as an upper low spins across the center of
the country. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is depicted
on the 12z GFS and ECMWF to drape just north of the forecast area,
oriented east-west across the center of Indiana. Meanwhile, a
surface low associated with the upper low deepens and seemingly
wants to ride the track of where the boundary lays out late Monday
night through Tuesday. While the 12Z ECMWF has come into better
agreement with the 12Z GFS, there are still noticeable differences
temporally and spatially when considering how this system will
evolve. Therefore, have kept just chance PoPs from Sunday through
Tuesday until we get closer to that time frame and can grab a better
handle. It likely won`t rain during the entire time frame but since
we are approaching an unsettled weather pattern that won`t be
arriving until at least 5 days from today, the uncertainties force
PoP wording during the 12-hour time periods for early next week.
Given face value of the 12z model runs, late Monday through Tuesday
look to have the highest chances at this time. With respect to
thunder possibilities, model soundings point toward the same time
frame of late Monday through Tuesday and have indicated as such in
this forecast update.

Temperatures to start the long-term will be near to slightly above
normal with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday through Saturday. The corresponding low temps will respond
similarly with mid to upper 50s Thursday night, lower 50s Friday
night, and then upper 40s across the north and lower 50s across the
south Saturday night. The temperature forecast then gets a bit more
tricky as cloud cover and precip could certainly play havoc until
the real airmass change comes through in the middle of next week.
Generally speaking though, cooler temps can be anticipated from
Sunday onward, especially as that upper low approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The cold front was through BWG/SDF as of 1630Z and passing through
LEX.  Expect winds to veer to the NW at LEX within the next hour.
Just behind this front, expect MVFR cigs to continue for a short
time before rising and scattering out.  VFR conditions will then be
the rule for the rest of the TAF period as sfc high pressure settles
into the area for tonight and tomorrow.  Expect clear skies
overnight with north winds under 7 kts.  For tomorrow some upper
level clouds will begin to work into the region with winds shifting
to the NE and remaining under 7kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221925
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

A cold front has passed through the region today.  Behind it, we can
expect gusty northerly winds (up to 25 mph) late this afternoon and
early evening with winds declining after sunset.

Skies should clear this evening as a drier, colder airmass works
into the region under sfc high pressure.  A decent rad cooling night
looks to be in store although winds will stay slightly elevated
aloft with 3-8 mph northerly sfc winds which will limit the cooling
somewhat.  Still overnight temps look to be quite chilly for this
time of year dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Sheltered
locations and typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region may reach
the mid 30s with patchy frost formation possible.  Thus, will
mention in an SPS the patchy frost potential.

Perhaps of greater concern will be an enhanced wildfire danger for
Wednesday afternoon.  Dry air aloft looks to mix down to the sfc
resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the mid 20
percent range.  Already dry ground fuels (5-8%) combined with low
humidity values will pose a risk for any fires to rapidly spread out
of control.  NNE winds will remain fairly tame in the 5-10 mph.
Still, think that an SPS mention for enhanced wildfire danger is in
order for tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Other than that, tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny with high
temperatures ranging throughout the 60s.

Wed night dry conditions will continue with upper level clouds
increasing.  Low temperatures will rebound into the 40s as ridging
and warmer air arrives.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This period begins dry as the aforementioned surface high moves off
toward the eastern seaboard and upper-level ridging across the south
moves along with it. By late Thursday night into early Friday, a
trough scooting across the Midwest and its associated surface
boundary quickly traverses through with models generally agreeing
that the precip will have exited by midday Friday. The ECMWF is the
outlier for PoPs Friday as it`s a bit slower clearing central
Kentucky and southern Indiana out. However the timing ends up
playing out, once the precip exits off to the east on Friday, expect
one more round of dry conditions through the middle of the
weekend.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, Sunday onward looks
to be rather unsettled as an upper low spins across the center of
the country. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is depicted
on the 12z GFS and ECMWF to drape just north of the forecast area,
oriented east-west across the center of Indiana. Meanwhile, a
surface low associated with the upper low deepens and seemingly
wants to ride the track of where the boundary lays out late Monday
night through Tuesday. While the 12Z ECMWF has come into better
agreement with the 12Z GFS, there are still noticeable differences
temporally and spatially when considering how this system will
evolve. Therefore, have kept just chance PoPs from Sunday through
Tuesday until we get closer to that time frame and can grab a better
handle. It likely won`t rain during the entire time frame but since
we are approaching an unsettled weather pattern that won`t be
arriving until at least 5 days from today, the uncertainties force
PoP wording during the 12-hour time periods for early next week.
Given face value of the 12z model runs, late Monday through Tuesday
look to have the highest chances at this time. With respect to
thunder possibilities, model soundings point toward the same time
frame of late Monday through Tuesday and have indicated as such in
this forecast update.

Temperatures to start the long-term will be near to slightly above
normal with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday through Saturday. The corresponding low temps will respond
similarly with mid to upper 50s Thursday night, lower 50s Friday
night, and then upper 40s across the north and lower 50s across the
south Saturday night. The temperature forecast then gets a bit more
tricky as cloud cover and precip could certainly play havoc until
the real airmass change comes through in the middle of next week.
Generally speaking though, cooler temps can be anticipated from
Sunday onward, especially as that upper low approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The cold front was through BWG/SDF as of 1630Z and passing through
LEX.  Expect winds to veer to the NW at LEX within the next hour.
Just behind this front, expect MVFR cigs to continue for a short
time before rising and scattering out.  VFR conditions will then be
the rule for the rest of the TAF period as sfc high pressure settles
into the area for tonight and tomorrow.  Expect clear skies
overnight with north winds under 7 kts.  For tomorrow some upper
level clouds will begin to work into the region with winds shifting
to the NE and remaining under 7kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221707 AAA
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Updated the forecast to move rain showers out of the Lake Cumberland
region faster this morning.  This is the end of the rain shower
activity for the day.  The cold front was just south of the Ohio
River as of 13Z.  The front will continue to move SE through the
region this morning shifting winds to the NW.  Winds will pick up to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph this afternoon.  Cooler air
filtering in behind the front should limit high temps to the upper
60s and lower 70s despite mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon.

Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The cold front was through BWG/SDF as of 1630Z and passing through
LEX.  Expect winds to veer to the NW at LEX within the next hour.
Just behind this front, expect MVFR cigs to continue for a short
time before rising and scattering out.  VFR conditions will then be
the rule for the rest of the TAF period as sfc high pressure settles
into the area for tonight and tomorrow.  Expect clear skies
overnight with north winds under 7 kts.  For tomorrow some upper
level clouds will begin to work into the region with winds shifting
to the NE and remaining under 7kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221707 AAA
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Updated the forecast to move rain showers out of the Lake Cumberland
region faster this morning.  This is the end of the rain shower
activity for the day.  The cold front was just south of the Ohio
River as of 13Z.  The front will continue to move SE through the
region this morning shifting winds to the NW.  Winds will pick up to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph this afternoon.  Cooler air
filtering in behind the front should limit high temps to the upper
60s and lower 70s despite mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon.

Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The cold front was through BWG/SDF as of 1630Z and passing through
LEX.  Expect winds to veer to the NW at LEX within the next hour.
Just behind this front, expect MVFR cigs to continue for a short
time before rising and scattering out.  VFR conditions will then be
the rule for the rest of the TAF period as sfc high pressure settles
into the area for tonight and tomorrow.  Expect clear skies
overnight with north winds under 7 kts.  For tomorrow some upper
level clouds will begin to work into the region with winds shifting
to the NE and remaining under 7kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221657
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1257 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Updated the forecast to move rain showers out of the Lake Cumberland
region faster this morning.  This is the end of the rain shower
activity for the day.  The cold front was just south of the Ohio
River as of 13Z.  The front will continue to move SE through the
region this morning shifting winds to the NW.  Winds will pick up to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph this afternoon.  Cooler air
filtering in behind the front should limit high temps to the upper
60s and lower 70s despite mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon.

Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The cold front was through BWG/SDF as of 1630Z and passing through
LEX.  Expect winds to veer to the NW at LEX within the next hour.
Just behind this front, expect MVFR cigs to continue until 19-21Z
before moving southeast of the area and scattering out.  VFR
conditions will then be the rule for the rest of the TAF period as
sfc high pressure settles into the area for tonight and tomorrow.
Expect clear skies overnight with north winds under 7 kts.  For
tomorrow some upper level clouds will begin to work into the region
with winds shifting to the NE and remaining under 7kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221657
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1257 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Updated the forecast to move rain showers out of the Lake Cumberland
region faster this morning.  This is the end of the rain shower
activity for the day.  The cold front was just south of the Ohio
River as of 13Z.  The front will continue to move SE through the
region this morning shifting winds to the NW.  Winds will pick up to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph this afternoon.  Cooler air
filtering in behind the front should limit high temps to the upper
60s and lower 70s despite mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon.

Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The cold front was through BWG/SDF as of 1630Z and passing through
LEX.  Expect winds to veer to the NW at LEX within the next hour.
Just behind this front, expect MVFR cigs to continue until 19-21Z
before moving southeast of the area and scattering out.  VFR
conditions will then be the rule for the rest of the TAF period as
sfc high pressure settles into the area for tonight and tomorrow.
Expect clear skies overnight with north winds under 7 kts.  For
tomorrow some upper level clouds will begin to work into the region
with winds shifting to the NE and remaining under 7kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221326
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
926 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Updated the forecast to move rain showers out of the Lake Cumberland
region faster this morning.  This is the end of the rain shower
activity for the day.  The cold front was just south of the Ohio
River as of 13Z.  The front will continue to move SE through the
region this morning shifting winds to the NW.  Winds will pick up to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph this afternoon.  Cooler air
filtering in behind the front should limit high temps to the upper
60s and lower 70s despite mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon.

Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This morning`s fropa will take place in two parts, with the main
forecast question being ceilings in between the two phases. Initial
wind shift and end of precip chances will happen within the next
couple hours, while the dewpoint discontinuity and leading edge of
some gusty NNW winds lags back north of I-70.

Isolated to scattered showers ahead of the initial wind shift will
be of minimal concern. Best chance at precip the next couple hrs
will be near BWG, and that only warrants VCSH at best. Ceiling and
vis in the showers will remain VFR.

The rest of the morning will be characterized by light W-NW winds
and trapped low-level moisture. High confidence in MVFR ceilings,
now that we are starting to see a lot more strato-cu over central
Indiana, and another pocket over western Kentucky. However,
confidence is much lower regarding whether ceilings will drop below
fuel-alternate thresholds. It will be a last-minute call on how low
we go, with the prime time for MVFR conditions occurring between
roughly 13-18Z, which does catch quite a bit of inbound traffic at
SDF.

By early afternoon, the drier air will spill in, with conditions
improving to VFR but NW wind gusts kicking up to around 20 kt.
Gustiness should subside around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221326
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
926 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Updated the forecast to move rain showers out of the Lake Cumberland
region faster this morning.  This is the end of the rain shower
activity for the day.  The cold front was just south of the Ohio
River as of 13Z.  The front will continue to move SE through the
region this morning shifting winds to the NW.  Winds will pick up to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph this afternoon.  Cooler air
filtering in behind the front should limit high temps to the upper
60s and lower 70s despite mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon.

Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This morning`s fropa will take place in two parts, with the main
forecast question being ceilings in between the two phases. Initial
wind shift and end of precip chances will happen within the next
couple hours, while the dewpoint discontinuity and leading edge of
some gusty NNW winds lags back north of I-70.

Isolated to scattered showers ahead of the initial wind shift will
be of minimal concern. Best chance at precip the next couple hrs
will be near BWG, and that only warrants VCSH at best. Ceiling and
vis in the showers will remain VFR.

The rest of the morning will be characterized by light W-NW winds
and trapped low-level moisture. High confidence in MVFR ceilings,
now that we are starting to see a lot more strato-cu over central
Indiana, and another pocket over western Kentucky. However,
confidence is much lower regarding whether ceilings will drop below
fuel-alternate thresholds. It will be a last-minute call on how low
we go, with the prime time for MVFR conditions occurring between
roughly 13-18Z, which does catch quite a bit of inbound traffic at
SDF.

By early afternoon, the drier air will spill in, with conditions
improving to VFR but NW wind gusts kicking up to around 20 kt.
Gustiness should subside around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221052
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This morning`s fropa will take place in two parts, with the main
forecast question being ceilings in between the two phases. Initial
wind shift and end of precip chances will happen within the next
couple hours, while the dewpoint discontinuity and leading edge of
some gusty NNW winds lags back north of I-70.

Isolated to scattered showers ahead of the initial wind shift will
be of minimal concern. Best chance at precip the next couple hrs
will be near BWG, and that only warrants VCSH at best. Ceiling and
vis in the showers will remain VFR.

The rest of the morning will be characterized by light W-NW winds
and trapped low-level moisture. High confidence in MVFR ceilings,
now that we are starting to see a lot more strato-cu over central
Indiana, and another pocket over western Kentucky. However,
confidence is much lower regarding whether ceilings will drop below
fuel-alternate thresholds. It will be a last-minute call on how low
we go, with the prime time for MVFR conditions occurring between
roughly 13-18Z, which does catch quite a bit of inbound traffic at
SDF.

By early afternoon, the drier air will spill in, with conditions
improving to VFR but NW wind gusts kicking up to around 20 kt.
Gustiness should subside around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221052
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This morning`s fropa will take place in two parts, with the main
forecast question being ceilings in between the two phases. Initial
wind shift and end of precip chances will happen within the next
couple hours, while the dewpoint discontinuity and leading edge of
some gusty NNW winds lags back north of I-70.

Isolated to scattered showers ahead of the initial wind shift will
be of minimal concern. Best chance at precip the next couple hrs
will be near BWG, and that only warrants VCSH at best. Ceiling and
vis in the showers will remain VFR.

The rest of the morning will be characterized by light W-NW winds
and trapped low-level moisture. High confidence in MVFR ceilings,
now that we are starting to see a lot more strato-cu over central
Indiana, and another pocket over western Kentucky. However,
confidence is much lower regarding whether ceilings will drop below
fuel-alternate thresholds. It will be a last-minute call on how low
we go, with the prime time for MVFR conditions occurring between
roughly 13-18Z, which does catch quite a bit of inbound traffic at
SDF.

By early afternoon, the drier air will spill in, with conditions
improving to VFR but NW wind gusts kicking up to around 20 kt.
Gustiness should subside around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220659
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Approaching cold front currently extends from roughly LAN to LAF to
just south of STL, with scattered showers out ahead of it. Believe
that any precip through the overnight period will be intermittent
enough that VCSH will cover it. The timing of fropa so close to
sunrise is problematic, as that is favorable to trap enough
low-level moisture to bring down ceilings. Took all three central
Kentucky TAF sites down to high-end MVFR after 09-10Z, with fropa
slated for 12-14Z.

Behind the front, NW winds will pick up, with MVFR ceilings lowering
into fuel-alternate. Confidence is limited because these lower
ceilings have yet to develop upstream, but this forecast is fairly
well in line with GFS and not as pessimistic as the IFR ceilings
advertised by the overly bullish NAM.

As mixing deepens in the afternoon, expect ceilings to lift and
scatter out by around 18Z. NW winds will be a bit more frisky, with
gusts near 20 kt through the latter half of the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RAS








000
FXUS63 KLMK 220509
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 958 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Did a quick update to adjust PoPs slightly.  Initial band of showers
now pushing into the region...mainly along and west of I-65.  These
will continue to move eastward and into the eastern
sections/Bluegrass region later this evening.  Not overly confident
on thunderstorms overnight...thus have removed the mention in the
forecast.  Though...a rumble or two can not be ruled out in a
stronger shower that moves through.  Surface front still located out
to our west.  Frontal passage still looks on target after sunrise
Tuesday morning. Also adjusted temperatures upward slightly.  Much
of the guidance was a little aggressive on the diurnal fall in
temps.  Adjusted temps close to the short term multi-model consensus
for the overnight period.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will approach the area tonight.  Ahead of it, showers
and isolated t-storms will be possible.  We`ve had light radar
returns over the area throughout the afternoon, but most of the
precip has been virga with maybe a lucky sprinkle reaching the
ground under the best radar returns.  Most precip has remained aloft
due to very dry low levels.  However, as we get into the late
afternoon/evening hours, low level moisture will increase allowing
showers to reach the ground.  Rain showers will continue on and off
throughout the night with most places seeing at least a sprinkle or
shower.  Thunderstorm chances are in question as we`re not seeing a
whole lot of lightning activity downstream.  However, most model
soundings do indicate some elevated instability overnight so will
continue an isld t-storm mention.  Due to such a dry airmass in
place already, overnight temps will likely fall into the low-mid 60s
as the atmosphere saturates with overall night time lows bottoming
out in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

For Tuesday, the cold front will pass through the region early in
the morning with showers and isld t-storms gradually pushing east of
the area through the morning hours.  Skies will turn sunny from NW
to SE during the afternoon hours.  Expect cooler afternoon high
temps in the mid 60s to around 70.  Also, NW winds will be a bit
gusty (up to 25 mph gusts) in a tight pressure gradient behind the
frontal passage Tues afternoon.

Tuesday night expect clear skies with high pressure sinking south
into the Ohio Valley.  The cold airmass and decent rad cooling
conditions will likely result in temps dropping into the mid 30s to
lower 40s across the area.  Although low level moisture is in
question, some locations over the Bluegrass that drop into the mid
30s may experience patchy frost.  Sheltered locations would stand
the best chance at any frost formation.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Wednesday - Thursday...

Ridging from a surface high centered over the Great Lakes will be in
place over the Ohio Valley Wednesday, sliding east of the area
through Thursday. Meanwhile, a progressive upper ridge will build
over the area, then slide east by Thursday evening. This pattern
will result in dry conditions, with temperatures making a recovery
from Tuesday`s cold front. Highs on Wednesday look to range from 63
to 68, with the warmer temps being across the west closer to the
building upper ridge/increasing thicknesses. Wednesday night should
be slightly milder than Tuesday night, with lows mostly in the low
and mid 40s. A few of the cooler eastern valleys might drop into the
upper 30s closer to the surface high. A few of the models try and
depict some very light rain associated with isentropic lift over a
warm front across southeastern IN, but will not bite on these very
small chances attm. Thursday will see a nice increase in
temperatures as thicknesses rise and a steady southerly flow takes
hold. Mainly upper 70s above guidance looks like a good call under
this pattern, as has been the case recently.

Thursday Night...

A progressive shortwave and its associated surface low will cut
across the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Thursday night.
Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will approach our region. Look
for pretty solid coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms
Thursday night ahead of this feature. Have continued mention of
likely Pops. Looks like the best dynamics will scoot to our north so
not concerned about severe potential at this time. A few of the
stronger storms may be able to produce some gusty winds, brief heavy
rain, and cloud to ground lightning.

Friday - Saturday...

The cold front passes through quickly and have all of the
precipitation chances east of our area by dawn on Friday morning. We
look to go into a fairly benign zonal flow, gradually transitioning
to shallow northwest flow by Saturday morning. Will go dry through
this period, although very small chances of a shower or storm can`t
be ruled out as a moisture starved front drops south toward the Ohio
Valley. Look for highs in the low and mid 70s on the warm side of
this boundary as we head into the weekend.

Saturday Night - Monday...

Complicated forecast to end the weekend and start the new week as
forecast models diverge in solutions. The problem appears to lie in
how amplified an omega block gets over the central CONUS and its
impact on the resulting downstream flow over our region. The latest
ECMWF seems to have some support from the GFS ensemble mean in less
amplified flow, which would allow the frontal boundary to stall out
near our region as it becomes nearly parrallel to the upper flow.
The GFS is much more amplified with the omega block and the
downstream flow, allowing the front to progress through our area and
well south. The ECMWF solution would be much warmer/wetter, while
the cooler/drier.

Pretty much have to pick a path at this point. Will side with the
warmer/wetter ECMWF and its supporting cast. This will lead to
gradually increasing shower and storm chances late Saturday night
along and north of the Ohio River, with several waves riding along
this boundary through at least Monday. As the front hangs out or
very slowly slides south across our area, expect temperatures to
become slighly cooler each day. Highs Sunday should generally be in
the mid/upper 60s, with Monday in the low to mid 60s.

Please note that if it becomes more clear that the more amplified
solution will work out. Look for big changes to the forecast in the
direction of cooler/drier during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Approaching cold front currently extends from roughly LAN to LAF to
just south of STL, with scattered showers out ahead of it. Believe
that any precip through the overnight period will be intermittent
enough that VCSH will cover it. The timing of fropa so close to
sunrise is problematic, as that is favorable to trap enough
low-level moisture to bring down ceilings. Took all three central
Kentucky TAF sites down to high-end MVFR after 09-10Z, with fropa
slated for 12-14Z.

Behind the front, NW winds will pick up, with MVFR ceilings lowering
into fuel-alternate. Confidence is limited because these lower
ceilings have yet to develop upstream, but this forecast is fairly
well in line with GFS and not as pessimistic as the IFR ceilings
advertised by the overly bullish NAM.

As mixing deepens in the afternoon, expect ceilings to lift and
scatter out by around 18Z. NW winds will be a bit more frisky, with
gusts near 20 kt through the latter half of the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220200
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1000 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 958 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Did a quick update to adjust PoPs slightly.  Initial band of showers
now pushing into the region...mainly along and west of I-65.  These
will continue to move eastward and into the eastern
sections/Bluegrass region later this evening.  Not overly confident
on thunderstorms overnight...thus have removed the mention in the
forecast.  Though...a rumble or two can not be ruled out in a
stronger shower that moves through.  Surface front still located out
to our west.  Frontal passage still looks on target after sunrise
Tuesday morning. Also adjusted temperatures upward slightly.  Much
of the guidance was a little aggressive on the diurnal fall in
temps.  Adjusted temps close to the short term multi-model consensus
for the overnight period.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will approach the area tonight.  Ahead of it, showers
and isolated t-storms will be possible.  We`ve had light radar
returns over the area throughout the afternoon, but most of the
precip has been virga with maybe a lucky sprinkle reaching the
ground under the best radar returns.  Most precip has remained aloft
due to very dry low levels.  However, as we get into the late
afternoon/evening hours, low level moisture will increase allowing
showers to reach the ground.  Rain showers will continue on and off
throughout the night with most places seeing at least a sprinkle or
shower.  Thunderstorm chances are in question as we`re not seeing a
whole lot of lightning activity downstream.  However, most model
soundings do indicate some elevated instability overnight so will
continue an isld t-storm mention.  Due to such a dry airmass in
place already, overnight temps will likely fall into the low-mid 60s
as the atmosphere saturates with overall night time lows bottoming
out in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

For Tuesday, the cold front will pass through the region early in
the morning with showers and isld t-storms gradually pushing east of
the area through the morning hours.  Skies will turn sunny from NW
to SE during the afternoon hours.  Expect cooler afternoon high
temps in the mid 60s to around 70.  Also, NW winds will be a bit
gusty (up to 25 mph gusts) in a tight pressure gradient behind the
frontal passage Tues afternoon.

Tuesday night expect clear skies with high pressure sinking south
into the Ohio Valley.  The cold airmass and decent rad cooling
conditions will likely result in temps dropping into the mid 30s to
lower 40s across the area.  Although low level moisture is in
question, some locations over the Bluegrass that drop into the mid
30s may experience patchy frost.  Sheltered locations would stand
the best chance at any frost formation.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Wednesday - Thursday...

Ridging from a surface high centered over the Great Lakes will be in
place over the Ohio Valley Wednesday, sliding east of the area
through Thursday. Meanwhile, a progressive upper ridge will build
over the area, then slide east by Thursday evening. This pattern
will result in dry conditions, with temperatures making a recovery
from Tuesday`s cold front. Highs on Wednesday look to range from 63
to 68, with the warmer temps being across the west closer to the
building upper ridge/increasing thicknesses. Wednesday night should
be slightly milder than Tuesday night, with lows mostly in the low
and mid 40s. A few of the cooler eastern valleys might drop into the
upper 30s closer to the surface high. A few of the models try and
depict some very light rain associated with isentropic lift over a
warm front across southeastern IN, but will not bite on these very
small chances attm. Thursday will see a nice increase in
temperatures as thicknesses rise and a steady southerly flow takes
hold. Mainly upper 70s above guidance looks like a good call under
this pattern, as has been the case recently.

Thursday Night...

A progressive shortwave and its associated surface low will cut
across the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Thursday night.
Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will approach our region. Look
for pretty solid coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms
Thursday night ahead of this feature. Have continued mention of
likely Pops. Looks like the best dynamics will scoot to our north so
not concerned about severe potential at this time. A few of the
stronger storms may be able to produce some gusty winds, brief heavy
rain, and cloud to ground lightning.

Friday - Saturday...

The cold front passes through quickly and have all of the
precipitation chances east of our area by dawn on Friday morning. We
look to go into a fairly benign zonal flow, gradually transitioning
to shallow northwest flow by Saturday morning. Will go dry through
this period, although very small chances of a shower or storm can`t
be ruled out as a moisture starved front drops south toward the Ohio
Valley. Look for highs in the low and mid 70s on the warm side of
this boundary as we head into the weekend.

Saturday Night - Monday...

Complicated forecast to end the weekend and start the new week as
forecast models diverge in solutions. The problem appears to lie in
how amplified an omega block gets over the central CONUS and its
impact on the resulting downstream flow over our region. The latest
ECMWF seems to have some support from the GFS ensemble mean in less
amplified flow, which would allow the frontal boundary to stall out
near our region as it becomes nearly parrallel to the upper flow.
The GFS is much more amplified with the omega block and the
downstream flow, allowing the front to progress through our area and
well south. The ECMWF solution would be much warmer/wetter, while
the cooler/drier.

Pretty much have to pick a path at this point. Will side with the
warmer/wetter ECMWF and its supporting cast. This will lead to
gradually increasing shower and storm chances late Saturday night
along and north of the Ohio River, with several waves riding along
this boundary through at least Monday. As the front hangs out or
very slowly slides south across our area, expect temperatures to
become slighly cooler each day. Highs Sunday should generally be in
the mid/upper 60s, with Monday in the low to mid 60s.

Please note that if it becomes more clear that the more amplified
solution will work out. Look for big changes to the forecast in the
direction of cooler/drier during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will push towards the area tonight bringing scattered
showers and a few rumbles of thunder.  Initial batch of scattered
showers is moving into the area now and will affect KBWG and KSDF in
the next couple of hours.  Current thinking is that we will continue
to see VFR conditions this evening and into the overnight hours.

Conditions will probably deteriorate later tonight as the actual
frontal boundary approaches. MVFR conditions are expected develop
around 22/09-10Z and continue until the front passes through the
region.  Current data suggests that the front will pass through in
the 22/12-14Z time frame with an end to the showers and a shift in
winds from the west to the northwest.  Skies will begin to clear out
towards mid-morning with a stronger pressure gradient developing.
We should see winds pick up into the 8-12kt range with gusts up to
20kts being possible.  Winds are expected to subside by 23/00Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 212306
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
706 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will approach the area tonight.  Ahead of it, showers
and isolated t-storms will be possible.  We`ve had light radar
returns over the area throughout the afternoon, but most of the
precip has been virga with maybe a lucky sprinkle reaching the
ground under the best radar returns.  Most precip has remained aloft
due to very dry low levels.  However, as we get into the late
afternoon/evening hours, low level moisture will increase allowing
showers to reach the ground.  Rain showers will continue on and off
throughout the night with most places seeing at least a sprinkle or
shower.  Thunderstorm chances are in question as we`re not seeing a
whole lot of lightning activity downstream.  However, most model
soundings do indicate some elevated instability overnight so will
continue an isld t-storm mention.  Due to such a dry airmass in
place already, overnight temps will likely fall into the low-mid 60s
as the atmosphere saturates with overall night time lows bottoming
out in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

For Tuesday, the cold front will pass through the region early in
the morning with showers and isld t-storms gradually pushing east of
the area through the morning hours.  Skies will turn sunny from NW
to SE during the afternoon hours.  Expect cooler afternoon high
temps in the mid 60s to around 70.  Also, NW winds will be a bit
gusty (up to 25 mph gusts) in a tight pressure gradient behind the
frontal passage Tues afternoon.

Tuesday night expect clear skies with high pressure sinking south
into the Ohio Valley.  The cold airmass and decent rad cooling
conditions will likely result in temps dropping into the mid 30s to
lower 40s across the area.  Although low level moisture is in
question, some locations over the Bluegrass that drop into the mid
30s may experience patchy frost.  Sheltered locations would stand
the best chance at any frost formation.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Wednesday - Thursday...

Ridging from a surface high centered over the Great Lakes will be in
place over the Ohio Valley Wednesday, sliding east of the area
through Thursday. Meanwhile, a progressive upper ridge will build
over the area, then slide east by Thursday evening. This pattern
will result in dry conditions, with temperatures making a recovery
from Tuesday`s cold front. Highs on Wednesday look to range from 63
to 68, with the warmer temps being across the west closer to the
building upper ridge/increasing thicknesses. Wednesday night should
be slightly milder than Tuesday night, with lows mostly in the low
and mid 40s. A few of the cooler eastern valleys might drop into the
upper 30s closer to the surface high. A few of the models try and
depict some very light rain associated with isentropic lift over a
warm front across southeastern IN, but will not bite on these very
small chances attm. Thursday will see a nice increase in
temperatures as thicknesses rise and a steady southerly flow takes
hold. Mainly upper 70s above guidance looks like a good call under
this pattern, as has been the case recently.

Thursday Night...

A progressive shortwave and its associated surface low will cut
across the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Thursday night.
Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will approach our region. Look
for pretty solid coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms
Thursday night ahead of this feature. Have continued mention of
likely Pops. Looks like the best dynamics will scoot to our north so
not concerned about severe potential at this time. A few of the
stronger storms may be able to produce some gusty winds, brief heavy
rain, and cloud to ground lightning.

Friday - Saturday...

The cold front passes through quickly and have all of the
precipitation chances east of our area by dawn on Friday morning. We
look to go into a fairly benign zonal flow, gradually transitioning
to shallow northwest flow by Saturday morning. Will go dry through
this period, although very small chances of a shower or storm can`t
be ruled out as a moisture starved front drops south toward the Ohio
Valley. Look for highs in the low and mid 70s on the warm side of
this boundary as we head into the weekend.

Saturday Night - Monday...

Complicated forecast to end the weekend and start the new week as
forecast models diverge in solutions. The problem appears to lie in
how amplified an omega block gets over the central CONUS and its
impact on the resulting downstream flow over our region. The latest
ECMWF seems to have some support from the GFS ensemble mean in less
amplified flow, which would allow the frontal boundary to stall out
near our region as it becomes nearly parrallel to the upper flow.
The GFS is much more amplified with the omega block and the
downstream flow, allowing the front to progress through our area and
well south. The ECMWF solution would be much warmer/wetter, while
the cooler/drier.

Pretty much have to pick a path at this point. Will side with the
warmer/wetter ECMWF and its supporting cast. This will lead to
gradually increasing shower and storm chances late Saturday night
along and north of the Ohio River, with several waves riding along
this boundary through at least Monday. As the front hangs out or
very slowly slides south across our area, expect temperatures to
become slighly cooler each day. Highs Sunday should generally be in
the mid/upper 60s, with Monday in the low to mid 60s.

Please note that if it becomes more clear that the more amplified
solution will work out. Look for big changes to the forecast in the
direction of cooler/drier during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will push towards the area tonight bringing scattered
showers and a few rumbles of thunder.  Initial batch of scattered
showers is moving into the area now and will affect KBWG and KSDF in
the next couple of hours.  Current thinking is that we will continue
to see VFR conditions this evening and into the overnight hours.

Conditions will probably deteriorate later tonight as the actual
frontal boundary approaches. MVFR conditions are expected develop
around 22/09-10Z and continue until the front passes through the
region.  Current data suggests that the front will pass through in
the 22/12-14Z time frame with an end to the showers and a shift in
winds from the west to the northwest.  Skies will begin to clear out
towards mid-morning with a stronger pressure gradient developing.
We should see winds pick up into the 8-12kt range with gusts up to
20kts being possible.  Winds are expected to subside by 23/00Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 212306
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
706 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will approach the area tonight.  Ahead of it, showers
and isolated t-storms will be possible.  We`ve had light radar
returns over the area throughout the afternoon, but most of the
precip has been virga with maybe a lucky sprinkle reaching the
ground under the best radar returns.  Most precip has remained aloft
due to very dry low levels.  However, as we get into the late
afternoon/evening hours, low level moisture will increase allowing
showers to reach the ground.  Rain showers will continue on and off
throughout the night with most places seeing at least a sprinkle or
shower.  Thunderstorm chances are in question as we`re not seeing a
whole lot of lightning activity downstream.  However, most model
soundings do indicate some elevated instability overnight so will
continue an isld t-storm mention.  Due to such a dry airmass in
place already, overnight temps will likely fall into the low-mid 60s
as the atmosphere saturates with overall night time lows bottoming
out in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

For Tuesday, the cold front will pass through the region early in
the morning with showers and isld t-storms gradually pushing east of
the area through the morning hours.  Skies will turn sunny from NW
to SE during the afternoon hours.  Expect cooler afternoon high
temps in the mid 60s to around 70.  Also, NW winds will be a bit
gusty (up to 25 mph gusts) in a tight pressure gradient behind the
frontal passage Tues afternoon.

Tuesday night expect clear skies with high pressure sinking south
into the Ohio Valley.  The cold airmass and decent rad cooling
conditions will likely result in temps dropping into the mid 30s to
lower 40s across the area.  Although low level moisture is in
question, some locations over the Bluegrass that drop into the mid
30s may experience patchy frost.  Sheltered locations would stand
the best chance at any frost formation.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Wednesday - Thursday...

Ridging from a surface high centered over the Great Lakes will be in
place over the Ohio Valley Wednesday, sliding east of the area
through Thursday. Meanwhile, a progressive upper ridge will build
over the area, then slide east by Thursday evening. This pattern
will result in dry conditions, with temperatures making a recovery
from Tuesday`s cold front. Highs on Wednesday look to range from 63
to 68, with the warmer temps being across the west closer to the
building upper ridge/increasing thicknesses. Wednesday night should
be slightly milder than Tuesday night, with lows mostly in the low
and mid 40s. A few of the cooler eastern valleys might drop into the
upper 30s closer to the surface high. A few of the models try and
depict some very light rain associated with isentropic lift over a
warm front across southeastern IN, but will not bite on these very
small chances attm. Thursday will see a nice increase in
temperatures as thicknesses rise and a steady southerly flow takes
hold. Mainly upper 70s above guidance looks like a good call under
this pattern, as has been the case recently.

Thursday Night...

A progressive shortwave and its associated surface low will cut
across the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Thursday night.
Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will approach our region. Look
for pretty solid coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms
Thursday night ahead of this feature. Have continued mention of
likely Pops. Looks like the best dynamics will scoot to our north so
not concerned about severe potential at this time. A few of the
stronger storms may be able to produce some gusty winds, brief heavy
rain, and cloud to ground lightning.

Friday - Saturday...

The cold front passes through quickly and have all of the
precipitation chances east of our area by dawn on Friday morning. We
look to go into a fairly benign zonal flow, gradually transitioning
to shallow northwest flow by Saturday morning. Will go dry through
this period, although very small chances of a shower or storm can`t
be ruled out as a moisture starved front drops south toward the Ohio
Valley. Look for highs in the low and mid 70s on the warm side of
this boundary as we head into the weekend.

Saturday Night - Monday...

Complicated forecast to end the weekend and start the new week as
forecast models diverge in solutions. The problem appears to lie in
how amplified an omega block gets over the central CONUS and its
impact on the resulting downstream flow over our region. The latest
ECMWF seems to have some support from the GFS ensemble mean in less
amplified flow, which would allow the frontal boundary to stall out
near our region as it becomes nearly parrallel to the upper flow.
The GFS is much more amplified with the omega block and the
downstream flow, allowing the front to progress through our area and
well south. The ECMWF solution would be much warmer/wetter, while
the cooler/drier.

Pretty much have to pick a path at this point. Will side with the
warmer/wetter ECMWF and its supporting cast. This will lead to
gradually increasing shower and storm chances late Saturday night
along and north of the Ohio River, with several waves riding along
this boundary through at least Monday. As the front hangs out or
very slowly slides south across our area, expect temperatures to
become slighly cooler each day. Highs Sunday should generally be in
the mid/upper 60s, with Monday in the low to mid 60s.

Please note that if it becomes more clear that the more amplified
solution will work out. Look for big changes to the forecast in the
direction of cooler/drier during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will push towards the area tonight bringing scattered
showers and a few rumbles of thunder.  Initial batch of scattered
showers is moving into the area now and will affect KBWG and KSDF in
the next couple of hours.  Current thinking is that we will continue
to see VFR conditions this evening and into the overnight hours.

Conditions will probably deteriorate later tonight as the actual
frontal boundary approaches. MVFR conditions are expected develop
around 22/09-10Z and continue until the front passes through the
region.  Current data suggests that the front will pass through in
the 22/12-14Z time frame with an end to the showers and a shift in
winds from the west to the northwest.  Skies will begin to clear out
towards mid-morning with a stronger pressure gradient developing.
We should see winds pick up into the 8-12kt range with gusts up to
20kts being possible.  Winds are expected to subside by 23/00Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211921
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will approach the area tonight.  Ahead of it, showers
and isolated t-storms will be possible.  We`ve had light radar
returns over the area throughout the afternoon, but most of the
precip has been virga with maybe a lucky sprinkle reaching the
ground under the best radar returns.  Most precip has remained aloft
due to very dry low levels.  However, as we get into the late
afternoon/evening hours, low level moisture will increase allowing
showers to reach the ground.  Rain showers will continue on and off
throughout the night with most places seeing at least a sprinkle or
shower.  Thunderstorm chances are in question as we`re not seeing a
whole lot of lightning activity downstream.  However, most model
soundings do indicate some elevated instability overnight so will
continue an isld t-storm mention.  Due to such a dry airmass in
place already, overnight temps will likely fall into the low-mid 60s
as the atmosphere saturates with overall night time lows bottoming
out in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

For Tuesday, the cold front will pass through the region early in
the morning with showers and isld t-storms gradually pushing east of
the area through the morning hours.  Skies will turn sunny from NW
to SE during the afternoon hours.  Expect cooler afternoon high
temps in the mid 60s to around 70.  Also, NW winds will be a bit
gusty (up to 25 mph gusts) in a tight pressure gradient behind the
frontal passage Tues afternoon.

Tuesday night expect clear skies with high pressure sinking south
into the Ohio Valley.  The cold airmass and decent rad cooling
conditions will likely result in temps dropping into the mid 30s to
lower 40s across the area.  Although low level moisture is in
question, some locations over the Bluegrass that drop into the mid
30s may experience patchy frost.  Sheltered locations would stand
the best chance at any frost formation.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Wednesday - Thursday...

Ridging from a surface high centered over the Great Lakes will be in
place over the Ohio Valley Wednesday, sliding east of the area
through Thursday. Meanwhile, a progressive upper ridge will build
over the area, then slide east by Thursday evening. This pattern
will result in dry conditions, with temperatures making a recovery
from Tuesday`s cold front. Highs on Wednesday look to range from 63
to 68, with the warmer temps being across the west closer to the
building upper ridge/increasing thicknesses. Wednesday night should
be slightly milder than Tuesday night, with lows mostly in the low
and mid 40s. A few of the cooler eastern valleys might drop into the
upper 30s closer to the surface high. A few of the models try and
depict some very light rain associated with isentropic lift over a
warm front across southeastern IN, but will not bite on these very
small chances attm. Thursday will see a nice increase in
temperatures as thicknesses rise and a steady southerly flow takes
hold. Mainly upper 70s above guidance looks like a good call under
this pattern, as has been the case recently.

Thursday Night...

A progressive shortwave and its associated surface low will cut
across the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Thursday night.
Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will approach our region. Look
for pretty solid coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms
Thursday night ahead of this feature. Have continued mention of
likely Pops. Looks like the best dynamics will scoot to our north so
not concerned about severe potential at this time. A few of the
stronger storms may be able to produce some gusty winds, brief heavy
rain, and cloud to ground lightning.

Friday - Saturday...

The cold front passes through quickly and have all of the
precipitation chances east of our area by dawn on Friday morning. We
look to go into a fairly benign zonal flow, gradually transitioning
to shallow northwest flow by Saturday morning. Will go dry through
this period, although very small chances of a shower or storm can`t
be ruled out as a moisture starved front drops south toward the Ohio
Valley. Look for highs in the low and mid 70s on the warm side of
this boundary as we head into the weekend.

Saturday Night - Monday...

Complicated forecast to end the weekend and start the new week as
forecast models diverge in solutions. The problem appears to lie in
how amplified an omega block gets over the central CONUS and its
impact on the resulting downstream flow over our region. The latest
ECMWF seems to have some support from the GFS ensemble mean in less
amplified flow, which would allow the frontal boundary to stall out
near our region as it becomes nearly parrallel to the upper flow.
The GFS is much more amplified with the omega block and the
downstream flow, allowing the front to progress through our area and
well south. The ECMWF solution would be much warmer/wetter, while
the cooler/drier.

Pretty much have to pick a path at this point. Will side with the
warmer/wetter ECMWF and its supporting cast. This will lead to
gradually increasing shower and storm chances late Saturday night
along and north of the Ohio River, with several waves riding along
this boundary through at least Monday. As the front hangs out or
very slowly slides south across our area, expect temperatures to
become slighly cooler each day. Highs Sunday should generally be in
the mid/upper 60s, with Monday in the low to mid 60s.

Please note that if it becomes more clear that the more amplified
solution will work out. Look for big changes to the forecast in the
direction of cooler/drier during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will approach the area tonight bringing with it showers
and perhaps a few t-storms.  This convection looks to start at the
TAF sites between 1-3Z this evening and continue on and off
throughout the night.  Not confident enough to include thunder in
the forecast at this point although soundings do show elevated
instability tonight as convection moves through.  Downstream
lightning obs with convection ahead of the front today are little to
nothing, so will be conservative with this TAF and keep thunder
mention out for now.  The fropa should occur at the TAF sites
between 13-14Z tomorrow morning ending convection.

VFR conditions are expected until early tomorrow morning when low
cigs and perhaps some vsby restrictions develop.  Right now it looks
like MVFR conditions will be dominant after 10Z through early
afternoon tomorrow.

Winds will be out of the SSW this afternoon between 6-10 kts.  Winds
will shift to the WSW ahead of the front during the pre-dawn hours
and then NW behind the fropa.  A tight pressure gradient behind the
fropa looks to cause NW winds of 10-13 kts to gust to around 20 kts
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211921
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will approach the area tonight.  Ahead of it, showers
and isolated t-storms will be possible.  We`ve had light radar
returns over the area throughout the afternoon, but most of the
precip has been virga with maybe a lucky sprinkle reaching the
ground under the best radar returns.  Most precip has remained aloft
due to very dry low levels.  However, as we get into the late
afternoon/evening hours, low level moisture will increase allowing
showers to reach the ground.  Rain showers will continue on and off
throughout the night with most places seeing at least a sprinkle or
shower.  Thunderstorm chances are in question as we`re not seeing a
whole lot of lightning activity downstream.  However, most model
soundings do indicate some elevated instability overnight so will
continue an isld t-storm mention.  Due to such a dry airmass in
place already, overnight temps will likely fall into the low-mid 60s
as the atmosphere saturates with overall night time lows bottoming
out in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

For Tuesday, the cold front will pass through the region early in
the morning with showers and isld t-storms gradually pushing east of
the area through the morning hours.  Skies will turn sunny from NW
to SE during the afternoon hours.  Expect cooler afternoon high
temps in the mid 60s to around 70.  Also, NW winds will be a bit
gusty (up to 25 mph gusts) in a tight pressure gradient behind the
frontal passage Tues afternoon.

Tuesday night expect clear skies with high pressure sinking south
into the Ohio Valley.  The cold airmass and decent rad cooling
conditions will likely result in temps dropping into the mid 30s to
lower 40s across the area.  Although low level moisture is in
question, some locations over the Bluegrass that drop into the mid
30s may experience patchy frost.  Sheltered locations would stand
the best chance at any frost formation.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Wednesday - Thursday...

Ridging from a surface high centered over the Great Lakes will be in
place over the Ohio Valley Wednesday, sliding east of the area
through Thursday. Meanwhile, a progressive upper ridge will build
over the area, then slide east by Thursday evening. This pattern
will result in dry conditions, with temperatures making a recovery
from Tuesday`s cold front. Highs on Wednesday look to range from 63
to 68, with the warmer temps being across the west closer to the
building upper ridge/increasing thicknesses. Wednesday night should
be slightly milder than Tuesday night, with lows mostly in the low
and mid 40s. A few of the cooler eastern valleys might drop into the
upper 30s closer to the surface high. A few of the models try and
depict some very light rain associated with isentropic lift over a
warm front across southeastern IN, but will not bite on these very
small chances attm. Thursday will see a nice increase in
temperatures as thicknesses rise and a steady southerly flow takes
hold. Mainly upper 70s above guidance looks like a good call under
this pattern, as has been the case recently.

Thursday Night...

A progressive shortwave and its associated surface low will cut
across the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Thursday night.
Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will approach our region. Look
for pretty solid coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms
Thursday night ahead of this feature. Have continued mention of
likely Pops. Looks like the best dynamics will scoot to our north so
not concerned about severe potential at this time. A few of the
stronger storms may be able to produce some gusty winds, brief heavy
rain, and cloud to ground lightning.

Friday - Saturday...

The cold front passes through quickly and have all of the
precipitation chances east of our area by dawn on Friday morning. We
look to go into a fairly benign zonal flow, gradually transitioning
to shallow northwest flow by Saturday morning. Will go dry through
this period, although very small chances of a shower or storm can`t
be ruled out as a moisture starved front drops south toward the Ohio
Valley. Look for highs in the low and mid 70s on the warm side of
this boundary as we head into the weekend.

Saturday Night - Monday...

Complicated forecast to end the weekend and start the new week as
forecast models diverge in solutions. The problem appears to lie in
how amplified an omega block gets over the central CONUS and its
impact on the resulting downstream flow over our region. The latest
ECMWF seems to have some support from the GFS ensemble mean in less
amplified flow, which would allow the frontal boundary to stall out
near our region as it becomes nearly parrallel to the upper flow.
The GFS is much more amplified with the omega block and the
downstream flow, allowing the front to progress through our area and
well south. The ECMWF solution would be much warmer/wetter, while
the cooler/drier.

Pretty much have to pick a path at this point. Will side with the
warmer/wetter ECMWF and its supporting cast. This will lead to
gradually increasing shower and storm chances late Saturday night
along and north of the Ohio River, with several waves riding along
this boundary through at least Monday. As the front hangs out or
very slowly slides south across our area, expect temperatures to
become slighly cooler each day. Highs Sunday should generally be in
the mid/upper 60s, with Monday in the low to mid 60s.

Please note that if it becomes more clear that the more amplified
solution will work out. Look for big changes to the forecast in the
direction of cooler/drier during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will approach the area tonight bringing with it showers
and perhaps a few t-storms.  This convection looks to start at the
TAF sites between 1-3Z this evening and continue on and off
throughout the night.  Not confident enough to include thunder in
the forecast at this point although soundings do show elevated
instability tonight as convection moves through.  Downstream
lightning obs with convection ahead of the front today are little to
nothing, so will be conservative with this TAF and keep thunder
mention out for now.  The fropa should occur at the TAF sites
between 13-14Z tomorrow morning ending convection.

VFR conditions are expected until early tomorrow morning when low
cigs and perhaps some vsby restrictions develop.  Right now it looks
like MVFR conditions will be dominant after 10Z through early
afternoon tomorrow.

Winds will be out of the SSW this afternoon between 6-10 kts.  Winds
will shift to the WSW ahead of the front during the pre-dawn hours
and then NW behind the fropa.  A tight pressure gradient behind the
fropa looks to cause NW winds of 10-13 kts to gust to around 20 kts
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

The going forecast looks to be in good shape this morning.  Just
made some minor tweaks based on this morning`s obs.  Rain showers
still look to arrive late this afternoon or evening with a rumble of
thunder possible.  Although mid and upper level clouds will be on
the increase this afternoon, high temperatures should still top out
in the upper 70s to around 80.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a cutoff low just
off the southeast coast.  In its wake, an upper-level ridge has
established itself over the Ohio Valley.  However, an upper-level
trough will approach and push through the region during the short
term period, bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Upper-level clouds continue to increase this morning out ahead of
the aforementioned system.  These clouds will continue to increase
in coverage and thicken throughout the day.  Despite the increasing
cloud cover, still think there will be some sunshine from time to
time today, especially across the eastern CWA.  Additionally,
mechanical mixing will be much better than yesterday, which should
help to make up a bit for less sunshine.  Therefore, will go with
temperatures very similar to Sunday`s values, which puts highs in
the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The main forecast challenge will come with convection potential late
this afternoon into tonight.  Overall thinking is that this system
may a bit of an underachiever due to a few factors.  First,
low-level moisture is lacking, and we once again have the potential
to mix down drier air during peak heating today (especially east of
I-65 where surface moisture advection will not be as robust).  This
will tend to limit overall instability late this afternoon.
Additionally, a very dry layer exists between 600-800mb, which will
be hard to overcome even with a slug of isentropic lift progged to
slide across the region late this afternoon.  Therefore, will
continue with previous forecast thinking and keep low-end pops going
along and west of I-65 by 00Z Tuesday.  If an isolated shower or
storm were to develop this afternoon in peak heating, it could be
capable of some gusty winds given large surface dewpoint depressions
and the potential for mid-level dry air entrainment.

By tonight, synoptic forcing for ascent increases which will help
pull deeper moisture into the region.  This will enhance the
precipitation coverage, but will still forecast pops in the 60-70%
range.  Given very weak convergence along the surface front and
mediocre dynamics, can`t see going any higher with pops.  The
latest hi-res solutions support this thinking, showing a few gaps in
coverage as the precipitation pushes through tonight.  Given the
region will be ahead of the surface front tonight, will go on the
high end of guidance with lows, which puts them in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

Precipitation will push to the southeast of the region by early
Tuesday afternoon as the surface front slides across the region.
Northwesterly winds behind the front will usher in a cooler and
drier airmass as temperatures struggle in the 60s and lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Main forecast challenges in this period include just how cold it
will get Tuesday night, and timing of precip associated with a
late-week closed low in the Great Lakes.

Respectable 1022mb surface high will nose southward from the Great
Lakes, with the ridge axis near I-65 by 12Z Wednesday. Min temp
forecast is fairly well in line with latest MOS guidance, with lows
around 40 for most of the area, but plenty of areas in the Bluegrass
region in the mid/upper 30s. Light NNE breeze staying up through the
night would keep temps from bottoming out and mitigate any frost
concerns. However, the GFS is fairly bullish with the ridging into
the Ohio Valley, and if it verifies we could see quite a few of the
sheltered valleys and typical cold spots flirting with the freezing
mark. Next couple of forecast cycles will need a close look at the
frost/freeze potential Wednesday morning, so stay tuned.

Expect a fairly quick recovery in temps starting on Wednesday, going
back above normal for Thursday and Friday. Next system is on tap for
Thursday night, as a series of impulses will pinwheel around a
"bowling ball" upper low making its way across the Great Lakes.
Consensus seems to be building for the best rain chances to occur
Thursday night as a negatively tilted impulse moves through, so will
go with high-end chance/low-end likely POPs. Another impulse will
reinforce the trofiness aloft Friday night and push a surface front
through, but at this time it looks like that system will be
moisture-starved.

Below-normal temps are expected over the weekend, with rain chances
re-entering the picture on Sunday ahead of an upper low developing
over the Plains. `Tis the season for cutoff lows, and it looks like
we will have the opportunity to become very familiar with this
particular system as April comes to a close. That said, it is mostly
beyond the scope of this forecast, and there are still details to be
worked out yet.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will approach the area tonight bringing with it showers
and perhaps a few t-storms.  This convection looks to start at the
TAF sites between 1-3Z this evening and continue on and off
throughout the night.  Not confident enough to include thunder in
the forecast at this point although soundings do show elevated
instability tonight as convection moves through.  Downstream
lightning obs with convection ahead of the front today are little to
nothing, so will be conservative with this TAF and keep thunder
mention out for now.  The fropa should occur at the TAF sites
between 13-14Z tomorrow morning ending convection.

VFR conditions are expected until early tomorrow morning when low
cigs and perhaps some vsby restrictions develop.  Right now it looks
like MVFR conditions will be dominant after 10Z through early
afternoon tomorrow.

Winds will be out of the SSW this afternoon between 6-10 kts.  Winds
will shift to the WSW ahead of the front during the pre-dawn hours
and then NW behind the fropa.  A tight pressure gradient behind the
fropa looks to cause NW winds of 10-13 kts to gust to around 20 kts
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

The going forecast looks to be in good shape this morning.  Just
made some minor tweaks based on this morning`s obs.  Rain showers
still look to arrive late this afternoon or evening with a rumble of
thunder possible.  Although mid and upper level clouds will be on
the increase this afternoon, high temperatures should still top out
in the upper 70s to around 80.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a cutoff low just
off the southeast coast.  In its wake, an upper-level ridge has
established itself over the Ohio Valley.  However, an upper-level
trough will approach and push through the region during the short
term period, bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Upper-level clouds continue to increase this morning out ahead of
the aforementioned system.  These clouds will continue to increase
in coverage and thicken throughout the day.  Despite the increasing
cloud cover, still think there will be some sunshine from time to
time today, especially across the eastern CWA.  Additionally,
mechanical mixing will be much better than yesterday, which should
help to make up a bit for less sunshine.  Therefore, will go with
temperatures very similar to Sunday`s values, which puts highs in
the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The main forecast challenge will come with convection potential late
this afternoon into tonight.  Overall thinking is that this system
may a bit of an underachiever due to a few factors.  First,
low-level moisture is lacking, and we once again have the potential
to mix down drier air during peak heating today (especially east of
I-65 where surface moisture advection will not be as robust).  This
will tend to limit overall instability late this afternoon.
Additionally, a very dry layer exists between 600-800mb, which will
be hard to overcome even with a slug of isentropic lift progged to
slide across the region late this afternoon.  Therefore, will
continue with previous forecast thinking and keep low-end pops going
along and west of I-65 by 00Z Tuesday.  If an isolated shower or
storm were to develop this afternoon in peak heating, it could be
capable of some gusty winds given large surface dewpoint depressions
and the potential for mid-level dry air entrainment.

By tonight, synoptic forcing for ascent increases which will help
pull deeper moisture into the region.  This will enhance the
precipitation coverage, but will still forecast pops in the 60-70%
range.  Given very weak convergence along the surface front and
mediocre dynamics, can`t see going any higher with pops.  The
latest hi-res solutions support this thinking, showing a few gaps in
coverage as the precipitation pushes through tonight.  Given the
region will be ahead of the surface front tonight, will go on the
high end of guidance with lows, which puts them in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

Precipitation will push to the southeast of the region by early
Tuesday afternoon as the surface front slides across the region.
Northwesterly winds behind the front will usher in a cooler and
drier airmass as temperatures struggle in the 60s and lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Main forecast challenges in this period include just how cold it
will get Tuesday night, and timing of precip associated with a
late-week closed low in the Great Lakes.

Respectable 1022mb surface high will nose southward from the Great
Lakes, with the ridge axis near I-65 by 12Z Wednesday. Min temp
forecast is fairly well in line with latest MOS guidance, with lows
around 40 for most of the area, but plenty of areas in the Bluegrass
region in the mid/upper 30s. Light NNE breeze staying up through the
night would keep temps from bottoming out and mitigate any frost
concerns. However, the GFS is fairly bullish with the ridging into
the Ohio Valley, and if it verifies we could see quite a few of the
sheltered valleys and typical cold spots flirting with the freezing
mark. Next couple of forecast cycles will need a close look at the
frost/freeze potential Wednesday morning, so stay tuned.

Expect a fairly quick recovery in temps starting on Wednesday, going
back above normal for Thursday and Friday. Next system is on tap for
Thursday night, as a series of impulses will pinwheel around a
"bowling ball" upper low making its way across the Great Lakes.
Consensus seems to be building for the best rain chances to occur
Thursday night as a negatively tilted impulse moves through, so will
go with high-end chance/low-end likely POPs. Another impulse will
reinforce the trofiness aloft Friday night and push a surface front
through, but at this time it looks like that system will be
moisture-starved.

Below-normal temps are expected over the weekend, with rain chances
re-entering the picture on Sunday ahead of an upper low developing
over the Plains. `Tis the season for cutoff lows, and it looks like
we will have the opportunity to become very familiar with this
particular system as April comes to a close. That said, it is mostly
beyond the scope of this forecast, and there are still details to be
worked out yet.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will approach the area tonight bringing with it showers
and perhaps a few t-storms.  This convection looks to start at the
TAF sites between 1-3Z this evening and continue on and off
throughout the night.  Not confident enough to include thunder in
the forecast at this point although soundings do show elevated
instability tonight as convection moves through.  Downstream
lightning obs with convection ahead of the front today are little to
nothing, so will be conservative with this TAF and keep thunder
mention out for now.  The fropa should occur at the TAF sites
between 13-14Z tomorrow morning ending convection.

VFR conditions are expected until early tomorrow morning when low
cigs and perhaps some vsby restrictions develop.  Right now it looks
like MVFR conditions will be dominant after 10Z through early
afternoon tomorrow.

Winds will be out of the SSW this afternoon between 6-10 kts.  Winds
will shift to the WSW ahead of the front during the pre-dawn hours
and then NW behind the fropa.  A tight pressure gradient behind the
fropa looks to cause NW winds of 10-13 kts to gust to around 20 kts
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211506
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1106 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

The going forecast looks to be in good shape this morning.  Just
made some minor tweaks based on this morning`s obs.  Rain showers
still look to arrive late this afternoon or evening with a rumble of
thunder possible.  Although mid and upper level clouds will be on
the increase this afternoon, high temperatures should still top out
in the upper 70s to around 80.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a cutoff low just
off the southeast coast.  In its wake, an upper-level ridge has
established itself over the Ohio Valley.  However, an upper-level
trough will approach and push through the region during the short
term period, bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Upper-level clouds continue to increase this morning out ahead of
the aforementioned system.  These clouds will continue to increase
in coverage and thicken throughout the day.  Despite the increasing
cloud cover, still think there will be some sunshine from time to
time today, especially across the eastern CWA.  Additionally,
mechanical mixing will be much better than yesterday, which should
help to make up a bit for less sunshine.  Therefore, will go with
temperatures very similar to Sunday`s values, which puts highs in
the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The main forecast challenge will come with convection potential late
this afternoon into tonight.  Overall thinking is that this system
may a bit of an underachiever due to a few factors.  First,
low-level moisture is lacking, and we once again have the potential
to mix down drier air during peak heating today (especially east of
I-65 where surface moisture advection will not be as robust).  This
will tend to limit overall instability late this afternoon.
Additionally, a very dry layer exists between 600-800mb, which will
be hard to overcome even with a slug of isentropic lift progged to
slide across the region late this afternoon.  Therefore, will
continue with previous forecast thinking and keep low-end pops going
along and west of I-65 by 00Z Tuesday.  If an isolated shower or
storm were to develop this afternoon in peak heating, it could be
capable of some gusty winds given large surface dewpoint depressions
and the potential for mid-level dry air entrainment.

By tonight, synoptic forcing for ascent increases which will help
pull deeper moisture into the region.  This will enhance the
precipitation coverage, but will still forecast pops in the 60-70%
range.  Given very weak convergence along the surface front and
mediocre dynamics, can`t see going any higher with pops.  The
latest hi-res solutions support this thinking, showing a few gaps in
coverage as the precipitation pushes through tonight.  Given the
region will be ahead of the surface front tonight, will go on the
high end of guidance with lows, which puts them in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

Precipitation will push to the southeast of the region by early
Tuesday afternoon as the surface front slides across the region.
Northwesterly winds behind the front will usher in a cooler and
drier airmass as temperatures struggle in the 60s and lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Main forecast challenges in this period include just how cold it
will get Tuesday night, and timing of precip associated with a
late-week closed low in the Great Lakes.

Respectable 1022mb surface high will nose southward from the Great
Lakes, with the ridge axis near I-65 by 12Z Wednesday. Min temp
forecast is fairly well in line with latest MOS guidance, with lows
around 40 for most of the area, but plenty of areas in the Bluegrass
region in the mid/upper 30s. Light NNE breeze staying up through the
night would keep temps from bottoming out and mitigate any frost
concerns. However, the GFS is fairly bullish with the ridging into
the Ohio Valley, and if it verifies we could see quite a few of the
sheltered valleys and typical cold spots flirting with the freezing
mark. Next couple of forecast cycles will need a close look at the
frost/freeze potential Wednesday morning, so stay tuned.

Expect a fairly quick recovery in temps starting on Wednesday, going
back above normal for Thursday and Friday. Next system is on tap for
Thursday night, as a series of impulses will pinwheel around a
"bowling ball" upper low making its way across the Great Lakes.
Consensus seems to be building for the best rain chances to occur
Thursday night as a negatively tilted impulse moves through, so will
go with high-end chance/low-end likely POPs. Another impulse will
reinforce the trofiness aloft Friday night and push a surface front
through, but at this time it looks like that system will be
moisture-starved.

Below-normal temps are expected over the weekend, with rain chances
re-entering the picture on Sunday ahead of an upper low developing
over the Plains. `Tis the season for cutoff lows, and it looks like
we will have the opportunity to become very familiar with this
particular system as April comes to a close. That said, it is mostly
beyond the scope of this forecast, and there are still details to be
worked out yet.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

An area of low pressure will approach the Ohio Valley today.  Out
ahead of this feature, high and mid-level clouds will continue to
increase through the day, but all cigs will remain VFR.  Winds will
increase out of the SW to around 10 knots today.

By tonight, the system will spread showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms across the region.  Specific timing of these showers
still is a bit uncertain, given coverage is only expected to be
about 60%.  Therefore, will continue with VCSH wording, although
prevailing -SHRA will likely be needed at some point tonight.  The
moderate showers will be capable of dropping cigs/vsbys briefly
to MVFR thresholds.  In addition, guidance suggests the potential
for some MVFR cigs toward the end of the TAF period and into the
planning period for KSDF.  These ceilings will largely hinge on
precipitation coverage overnight, thus will leave cigs at VFR for
now until trends can be better ascertained.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD







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