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000
FXUS63 KLMK 051925
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Upper ridging continues to keep the region warm and relatively dry.
We do have some clouds that have formed underneath a subsidence
inversion at around 8 kft, and expect to see most of those die off
as the sun sets tonight. The strength of the upper ridge will weaken
a little during the day Wednesday, as the feature developing off the
southeast U.S. coast nudges closer to us. The limiting factors for
storm coverage are available moisture and a trigger/focusing
mechanism, but would not be surprised to see a storm or two develop
Wednesday afternoon east of the I-65 corridor.

The ridge aloft will continue to bring above normal temperatures to
the region, with highs maybe a little warmer than today. Lows will
continue above normal as well. Drier conditions this afternoon could
allow us to cool rather quickly with sunset, enough to allow for
some patches of fog toward daybreak.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a large trough across the western CONUS, with a Rex block
situated across the eastern seaboard.  This regime will place the
Ohio Valley within ridging aloft through much of the period, leading
to seasonably warm conditions with only small chances for
precipitation until next week.

For Thursday, a weak PV anomaly will eject northward from the Gulf
of Mexico.  Guidance has been going back and forth on whether this
weak large-scale ascent will be enough to foster thunderstorm
development Thursday afternoon, mainly east of I-65.  The trend of
the 12Z data has been drier, with the GFS continuing to be the
wettest solution.  Think most locations will end up dry (less than
10 percent coverage), but to keep some forecast consistency and
given there is at least a some forcing mechanism, will leave in
slight chances of t`storms east of I-65 Thursday afternoon.  The
next shift may be able to remove pops on Thursday if the drier trend
continues.

Otherwise, the ridging will win out through at least Saturday,
bringing dry and warm conditions.  In fact, given 850mb temperatures
will be rising slowly each day, have upped temperatures late this
week into the weekend.  Readings have overachieved almost daily the
past few days and see no reason why they won`t continue to do so
late this week, especially as soils continue to dry out.  New
forecast temperatures now approach 90 degrees in the typically warm
spots (Louisville metro being one) both Friday and Saturday, with
mid/upper 80s elsewhere.  Luckily dewpoints will only be in the
upper 50s and low 60s, so the airmass won`t be overly oppressive,
but it will certainly feel like a taste of summer outside.

With this forecast package, have also delayed the better
precipitation chances associated with the incoming trough/surface
front.  Rex blocks are typically stubborn, and guidance tends to
break them down too fast.  The GFS in particular is notorious for
breaking down ridges too fast and allowing widespread convection
within ridge axes.  Therefore, have largely favored the GEM/ECMWF
solutions.  This bring some slight chances of precipitation into the
northwest portions of the CWA Saturday into Sunday, with the better
chances of precipitation associated with the passing system not
coming until Monday into Tuesday.  Will cap pops at 50% with the
expected fropa given this system could very well slow down even more
leading to a longer period of drier weather than currently
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015

VFR still expected this period with ridging aloft. We do have a pool
of moisture causing some scattered to broken clouds, but with high
bases. Winds will become more variable overnight and into Wednesday
as a surface high pressure edges a little closer to the region. With
that high, we may be able to see some light fog at the BWG/LEX
terminals Wednesday morning, but confidence is too low to put in
this set of TAFs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 051925
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Upper ridging continues to keep the region warm and relatively dry.
We do have some clouds that have formed underneath a subsidence
inversion at around 8 kft, and expect to see most of those die off
as the sun sets tonight. The strength of the upper ridge will weaken
a little during the day Wednesday, as the feature developing off the
southeast U.S. coast nudges closer to us. The limiting factors for
storm coverage are available moisture and a trigger/focusing
mechanism, but would not be surprised to see a storm or two develop
Wednesday afternoon east of the I-65 corridor.

The ridge aloft will continue to bring above normal temperatures to
the region, with highs maybe a little warmer than today. Lows will
continue above normal as well. Drier conditions this afternoon could
allow us to cool rather quickly with sunset, enough to allow for
some patches of fog toward daybreak.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a large trough across the western CONUS, with a Rex block
situated across the eastern seaboard.  This regime will place the
Ohio Valley within ridging aloft through much of the period, leading
to seasonably warm conditions with only small chances for
precipitation until next week.

For Thursday, a weak PV anomaly will eject northward from the Gulf
of Mexico.  Guidance has been going back and forth on whether this
weak large-scale ascent will be enough to foster thunderstorm
development Thursday afternoon, mainly east of I-65.  The trend of
the 12Z data has been drier, with the GFS continuing to be the
wettest solution.  Think most locations will end up dry (less than
10 percent coverage), but to keep some forecast consistency and
given there is at least a some forcing mechanism, will leave in
slight chances of t`storms east of I-65 Thursday afternoon.  The
next shift may be able to remove pops on Thursday if the drier trend
continues.

Otherwise, the ridging will win out through at least Saturday,
bringing dry and warm conditions.  In fact, given 850mb temperatures
will be rising slowly each day, have upped temperatures late this
week into the weekend.  Readings have overachieved almost daily the
past few days and see no reason why they won`t continue to do so
late this week, especially as soils continue to dry out.  New
forecast temperatures now approach 90 degrees in the typically warm
spots (Louisville metro being one) both Friday and Saturday, with
mid/upper 80s elsewhere.  Luckily dewpoints will only be in the
upper 50s and low 60s, so the airmass won`t be overly oppressive,
but it will certainly feel like a taste of summer outside.

With this forecast package, have also delayed the better
precipitation chances associated with the incoming trough/surface
front.  Rex blocks are typically stubborn, and guidance tends to
break them down too fast.  The GFS in particular is notorious for
breaking down ridges too fast and allowing widespread convection
within ridge axes.  Therefore, have largely favored the GEM/ECMWF
solutions.  This bring some slight chances of precipitation into the
northwest portions of the CWA Saturday into Sunday, with the better
chances of precipitation associated with the passing system not
coming until Monday into Tuesday.  Will cap pops at 50% with the
expected fropa given this system could very well slow down even more
leading to a longer period of drier weather than currently
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015

VFR still expected this period with ridging aloft. We do have a pool
of moisture causing some scattered to broken clouds, but with high
bases. Winds will become more variable overnight and into Wednesday
as a surface high pressure edges a little closer to the region. With
that high, we may be able to see some light fog at the BWG/LEX
terminals Wednesday morning, but confidence is too low to put in
this set of TAFs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 051723
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 935 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Forecast on track for highs in the low/mid 80s today. Still think
the best chance for any isolated storms will be just southeast of
our Lake Cumberland counties. Merged current observations with our
gridded forecast, but no change needed for the zones.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Upper level ridging has slowly started to strengthen over our region
and will continue to do so in the short term period.  Sfc high
pressure centered to our southeast will continue over the next few
days also.  These features will generally result in a dry forecast.
However, some of the models continue to indicate a few isld
showers/storms may be possible during the afternoon/evening hours.
If this is true, isld convection may bubble up after we surpass
convective temps.  These very small chances of precip look more
likely for Wed than today.  However, most areas will stay dry and
with the lack of moisture and a trigger, will continue with a dry
forecast overall today and tomorrow.  There`s about a 10% chance
someone might see a stray shower or storm around or just after peak
daytime heating today and Wed.

As for temperatures, the airmass will slightly warm over the next
few days under a weak southerly flow.  Also, as the ground gets
drier, sfc temps will be able to peak a little higher each
afternoon.  For today, we`ll stay in the 82 to 87 degree range for
highs...a degree or so warmer than yesterday.  Under good rad
cooling, overnight lows tonight should drop into the mid 50s to
around 60.  Wednesday`s highs should range from 83 to 88.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

General upper ridging will help to suppress most convection through
the end of the work week. Over the weekend, though, the ridge will
edge to the east and will allow southwest flow to set up first over
southern Indiana, then gradually into central Kentucky as well.
Disturbances riding this flow from the southern Plains to the Great
Lakes will bring the chance of scattered showers and storms.  Shower
and storm chances will continue into Monday as a surface front
approaching from the west further enhances the chance of rain.

High temperatures will be in the 80s each day.  The warmest 850
temps occur over the weekend but actual surface temps may be
tempered somewhat by clouds and scattered showers/storms.  Dew
points through the period will range from mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015

VFR still expected this period with ridging aloft. We do have a pool
of moisture causing some scattered to broken clouds, but with high
bases. Winds will become more variable overnight and into Wednesday
as a surface high pressure edges a little closer to the region. With
that high, we may be able to see some light fog at the BWG/LEX
terminals Wednesday morning, but confidence is too low to put in
this set of TAFs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 051723
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 935 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Forecast on track for highs in the low/mid 80s today. Still think
the best chance for any isolated storms will be just southeast of
our Lake Cumberland counties. Merged current observations with our
gridded forecast, but no change needed for the zones.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Upper level ridging has slowly started to strengthen over our region
and will continue to do so in the short term period.  Sfc high
pressure centered to our southeast will continue over the next few
days also.  These features will generally result in a dry forecast.
However, some of the models continue to indicate a few isld
showers/storms may be possible during the afternoon/evening hours.
If this is true, isld convection may bubble up after we surpass
convective temps.  These very small chances of precip look more
likely for Wed than today.  However, most areas will stay dry and
with the lack of moisture and a trigger, will continue with a dry
forecast overall today and tomorrow.  There`s about a 10% chance
someone might see a stray shower or storm around or just after peak
daytime heating today and Wed.

As for temperatures, the airmass will slightly warm over the next
few days under a weak southerly flow.  Also, as the ground gets
drier, sfc temps will be able to peak a little higher each
afternoon.  For today, we`ll stay in the 82 to 87 degree range for
highs...a degree or so warmer than yesterday.  Under good rad
cooling, overnight lows tonight should drop into the mid 50s to
around 60.  Wednesday`s highs should range from 83 to 88.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

General upper ridging will help to suppress most convection through
the end of the work week. Over the weekend, though, the ridge will
edge to the east and will allow southwest flow to set up first over
southern Indiana, then gradually into central Kentucky as well.
Disturbances riding this flow from the southern Plains to the Great
Lakes will bring the chance of scattered showers and storms.  Shower
and storm chances will continue into Monday as a surface front
approaching from the west further enhances the chance of rain.

High temperatures will be in the 80s each day.  The warmest 850
temps occur over the weekend but actual surface temps may be
tempered somewhat by clouds and scattered showers/storms.  Dew
points through the period will range from mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015

VFR still expected this period with ridging aloft. We do have a pool
of moisture causing some scattered to broken clouds, but with high
bases. Winds will become more variable overnight and into Wednesday
as a surface high pressure edges a little closer to the region. With
that high, we may be able to see some light fog at the BWG/LEX
terminals Wednesday morning, but confidence is too low to put in
this set of TAFs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 051336
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
936 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 935 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Forecast on track for highs in the low/mid 80s today. Still think
the best chance for any isolated storms will be just southeast of
our Lake Cumberland counties. Merged current observations with our
gridded forecast, but no change needed for the zones.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Upper level ridging has slowly started to strengthen over our region
and will continue to do so in the short term period.  Sfc high
pressure centered to our southeast will continue over the next few
days also.  These features will generally result in a dry forecast.
However, some of the models continue to indicate a few isld
showers/storms may be possible during the afternoon/evening hours.
If this is true, isld convection may bubble up after we surpass
convective temps.  These very small chances of precip look more
likely for Wed than today.  However, most areas will stay dry and
with the lack of moisture and a trigger, will continue with a dry
forecast overall today and tomorrow.  There`s about a 10% chance
someone might see a stray shower or storm around or just after peak
daytime heating today and Wed.

As for temperatures, the airmass will slightly warm over the next
few days under a weak southerly flow.  Also, as the ground gets
drier, sfc temps will be able to peak a little higher each
afternoon.  For today, we`ll stay in the 82 to 87 degree range for
highs...a degree or so warmer than yesterday.  Under good rad
cooling, overnight lows tonight should drop into the mid 50s to
around 60.  Wednesday`s highs should range from 83 to 88.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

General upper ridging will help to suppress most convection through
the end of the work week. Over the weekend, though, the ridge will
edge to the east and will allow southwest flow to set up first over
southern Indiana, then gradually into central Kentucky as well.
Disturbances riding this flow from the southern Plains to the Great
Lakes will bring the chance of scattered showers and storms.  Shower
and storm chances will continue into Monday as a surface front
approaching from the west further enhances the chance of rain.

High temperatures will be in the 80s each day.  The warmest 850
temps occur over the weekend but actual surface temps may be
tempered somewhat by clouds and scattered showers/storms.  Dew
points through the period will range from mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 650 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

VFR conditions are expected as upper level ridging slowly builds
over the region. Winds are expected to be calm or light southerly
this morning with some light fog at BWG around dawn. Winds during
the daylight hours today will be out of the SSW around 8-10 knots.
Scattered cu is expected to develop by mid day with some upper level
clouds possible as well.  Winds will decrease in strength again this
evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 051336
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
936 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 935 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Forecast on track for highs in the low/mid 80s today. Still think
the best chance for any isolated storms will be just southeast of
our Lake Cumberland counties. Merged current observations with our
gridded forecast, but no change needed for the zones.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Upper level ridging has slowly started to strengthen over our region
and will continue to do so in the short term period.  Sfc high
pressure centered to our southeast will continue over the next few
days also.  These features will generally result in a dry forecast.
However, some of the models continue to indicate a few isld
showers/storms may be possible during the afternoon/evening hours.
If this is true, isld convection may bubble up after we surpass
convective temps.  These very small chances of precip look more
likely for Wed than today.  However, most areas will stay dry and
with the lack of moisture and a trigger, will continue with a dry
forecast overall today and tomorrow.  There`s about a 10% chance
someone might see a stray shower or storm around or just after peak
daytime heating today and Wed.

As for temperatures, the airmass will slightly warm over the next
few days under a weak southerly flow.  Also, as the ground gets
drier, sfc temps will be able to peak a little higher each
afternoon.  For today, we`ll stay in the 82 to 87 degree range for
highs...a degree or so warmer than yesterday.  Under good rad
cooling, overnight lows tonight should drop into the mid 50s to
around 60.  Wednesday`s highs should range from 83 to 88.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

General upper ridging will help to suppress most convection through
the end of the work week. Over the weekend, though, the ridge will
edge to the east and will allow southwest flow to set up first over
southern Indiana, then gradually into central Kentucky as well.
Disturbances riding this flow from the southern Plains to the Great
Lakes will bring the chance of scattered showers and storms.  Shower
and storm chances will continue into Monday as a surface front
approaching from the west further enhances the chance of rain.

High temperatures will be in the 80s each day.  The warmest 850
temps occur over the weekend but actual surface temps may be
tempered somewhat by clouds and scattered showers/storms.  Dew
points through the period will range from mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 650 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

VFR conditions are expected as upper level ridging slowly builds
over the region. Winds are expected to be calm or light southerly
this morning with some light fog at BWG around dawn. Winds during
the daylight hours today will be out of the SSW around 8-10 knots.
Scattered cu is expected to develop by mid day with some upper level
clouds possible as well.  Winds will decrease in strength again this
evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 051050
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
650 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Upper level ridging has slowly started to strengthen over our region
and will continue to do so in the short term period.  Sfc high
pressure centered to our southeast will continue over the next few
days also.  These features will generally result in a dry forecast.
However, some of the models continue to indicate a few isld
showers/storms may be possible during the afternoon/evening hours.
If this is true, isld convection may bubble up after we surpass
convective temps.  These very small chances of precip look more
likely for Wed than today.  However, most areas will stay dry and
with the lack of moisture and a trigger, will continue with a dry
forecast overall today and tomorrow.  There`s about a 10% chance
someone might see a stray shower or storm around or just after peak
daytime heating today and Wed.

As for temperatures, the airmass will slightly warm over the next
few days under a weak southerly flow.  Also, as the ground gets
drier, sfc temps will be able to peak a little higher each
afternoon.  For today, we`ll stay in the 82 to 87 degree range for
highs...a degree or so warmer than yesterday.  Under good rad
cooling, overnight lows tonight should drop into the mid 50s to
around 60.  Wednesday`s highs should range from 83 to 88.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

General upper ridging will help to suppress most convection through
the end of the work week. Over the weekend, though, the ridge will
edge to the east and will allow southwest flow to set up first over
southern Indiana, then gradually into central Kentucky as well.
Disturbances riding this flow from the southern Plains to the Great
Lakes will bring the chance of scattered showers and storms.  Shower
and storm chances will continue into Monday as a surface front
approaching from the west further enhances the chance of rain.

High temperatures will be in the 80s each day.  The warmest 850
temps occur over the weekend but actual surface temps may be
tempered somewhat by clouds and scattered showers/storms.  Dew
points through the period will range from mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 650 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

VFR conditions are expected as upper level ridging slowly builds
over the region. Winds are expected to be calm or light southerly
this morning with some light fog at BWG around dawn. Winds during
the daylight hours today will be out of the SSW around 8-10 knots.
Scattered cu is expected to develop by mid day with some upper level
clouds possible as well.  Winds will decrease in strength again this
evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 050702
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Upper level ridging has slowly started to strengthen over our region
and will continue to do so in the short term period.  Sfc high
pressure centered to our southeast will continue over the next few
days also.  These features will generally result in a dry forecast.
However, some of the models continue to indicate a few isld
showers/storms may be possible during the afternoon/evening hours.
If this is true, isld convection may bubble up after we surpass
convective temps.  These very small chances of precip look more
likely for Wed than today.  However, most areas will stay dry and
with the lack of moisture and a trigger, will continue with a dry
forecast overall today and tomorrow.  There`s about a 10% chance
someone might see a stray shower or storm around or just after peak
daytime heating today and Wed.

As for temperatures, the airmass will slightly warm over the next
few days under a weak southerly flow.  Also, as the ground gets
drier, sfc temps will be able to peak a little higher each
afternoon.  For today, we`ll stay in the 82 to 87 degree range for
highs...a degree or so warmer than yesterday.  Under good rad
cooling, overnight lows tonight should drop into the mid 50s to
around 60.  Wednesday`s highs should range from 83 to 88.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

General upper ridging will help to suppress most convection through
the end of the work week. Over the weekend, though, the ridge will
edge to the east and will allow southwest flow to set up first over
southern Indiana, then gradually into central Kentucky as well.
Disturbances riding this flow from the southern Plains to the Great
Lakes will bring the chance of scattered showers and storms.  Shower
and storm chances will continue into Monday as a surface front
approaching from the west further enhances the chance of rain.

High temperatures will be in the 80s each day.  The warmest 850
temps occur over the weekend but actual surface temps may be
tempered somewhat by clouds and scattered showers/storms.  Dew
points through the period will range from mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

VFR conditions are expected as upper level ridging slowly builds
over the region. Winds are expected to be calm or light southerly
early this morning with some light fog possible at BWG towards dawn.
Winds during the daylight hours today will be out of the SSW around
8-10 knots. Scattered cu is expected to develop by mid day with some
upper level clouds possible as well.  Winds will decrease in
strength again this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 050702
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Upper level ridging has slowly started to strengthen over our region
and will continue to do so in the short term period.  Sfc high
pressure centered to our southeast will continue over the next few
days also.  These features will generally result in a dry forecast.
However, some of the models continue to indicate a few isld
showers/storms may be possible during the afternoon/evening hours.
If this is true, isld convection may bubble up after we surpass
convective temps.  These very small chances of precip look more
likely for Wed than today.  However, most areas will stay dry and
with the lack of moisture and a trigger, will continue with a dry
forecast overall today and tomorrow.  There`s about a 10% chance
someone might see a stray shower or storm around or just after peak
daytime heating today and Wed.

As for temperatures, the airmass will slightly warm over the next
few days under a weak southerly flow.  Also, as the ground gets
drier, sfc temps will be able to peak a little higher each
afternoon.  For today, we`ll stay in the 82 to 87 degree range for
highs...a degree or so warmer than yesterday.  Under good rad
cooling, overnight lows tonight should drop into the mid 50s to
around 60.  Wednesday`s highs should range from 83 to 88.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

General upper ridging will help to suppress most convection through
the end of the work week. Over the weekend, though, the ridge will
edge to the east and will allow southwest flow to set up first over
southern Indiana, then gradually into central Kentucky as well.
Disturbances riding this flow from the southern Plains to the Great
Lakes will bring the chance of scattered showers and storms.  Shower
and storm chances will continue into Monday as a surface front
approaching from the west further enhances the chance of rain.

High temperatures will be in the 80s each day.  The warmest 850
temps occur over the weekend but actual surface temps may be
tempered somewhat by clouds and scattered showers/storms.  Dew
points through the period will range from mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

VFR conditions are expected as upper level ridging slowly builds
over the region. Winds are expected to be calm or light southerly
early this morning with some light fog possible at BWG towards dawn.
Winds during the daylight hours today will be out of the SSW around
8-10 knots. Scattered cu is expected to develop by mid day with some
upper level clouds possible as well.  Winds will decrease in
strength again this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 050702
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

Upper level ridging has slowly started to strengthen over our region
and will continue to do so in the short term period.  Sfc high
pressure centered to our southeast will continue over the next few
days also.  These features will generally result in a dry forecast.
However, some of the models continue to indicate a few isld
showers/storms may be possible during the afternoon/evening hours.
If this is true, isld convection may bubble up after we surpass
convective temps.  These very small chances of precip look more
likely for Wed than today.  However, most areas will stay dry and
with the lack of moisture and a trigger, will continue with a dry
forecast overall today and tomorrow.  There`s about a 10% chance
someone might see a stray shower or storm around or just after peak
daytime heating today and Wed.

As for temperatures, the airmass will slightly warm over the next
few days under a weak southerly flow.  Also, as the ground gets
drier, sfc temps will be able to peak a little higher each
afternoon.  For today, we`ll stay in the 82 to 87 degree range for
highs...a degree or so warmer than yesterday.  Under good rad
cooling, overnight lows tonight should drop into the mid 50s to
around 60.  Wednesday`s highs should range from 83 to 88.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

General upper ridging will help to suppress most convection through
the end of the work week. Over the weekend, though, the ridge will
edge to the east and will allow southwest flow to set up first over
southern Indiana, then gradually into central Kentucky as well.
Disturbances riding this flow from the southern Plains to the Great
Lakes will bring the chance of scattered showers and storms.  Shower
and storm chances will continue into Monday as a surface front
approaching from the west further enhances the chance of rain.

High temperatures will be in the 80s each day.  The warmest 850
temps occur over the weekend but actual surface temps may be
tempered somewhat by clouds and scattered showers/storms.  Dew
points through the period will range from mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

VFR conditions are expected as upper level ridging slowly builds
over the region. Winds are expected to be calm or light southerly
early this morning with some light fog possible at BWG towards dawn.
Winds during the daylight hours today will be out of the SSW around
8-10 knots. Scattered cu is expected to develop by mid day with some
upper level clouds possible as well.  Winds will decrease in
strength again this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 050506
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
106 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a trough across
the southwestern CONUS, with downstream ridging across the Ohio
Valley.  This ridging will amplify over the region through the
short-term period, bringing continued dry and mild conditions.

Convection from last night into this morning across IL/IN laid out
an outflow boundary which has now pushed into western Ohio and
southern IN, but it has become very diffuse as it has largely mixed
out.  The enhanced cu that had been found along this boundary have
since dissipated, likely due to a thicker cirrus shield pushing into
southern Indiana from the west.  Latest mesoanalysis depicts
500-1000+ J/kg of uncapped MLCAPE across southern IN and
west-central KY, so a rogue storm developing still cannot be ruled
out.  However, the lack of surface convergence will limit
shower/storm potential and coverage, thus will go with a dry
forecast through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

For tonight, clouds should once again largely dissipate leading to a
mostly clear night.  Overnight lows will be very similar to last
night, perhaps a little warmer given the warmer high temperatures
and slightly higher dewpoints we`ve experienced today.  This puts
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s.

More of the same can be expected tomorrow as ridging amplifies over
the region.  This should push today`s convection associated with a
weak surface front over IN/IL/MI well north by tomorrow afternoon.
Southwesterly winds and sunshine will once again combine to push
temperatures into the low and mid 80s.

The broken record of pleasant weather continues into tomorrow night,
as mainly clear skies and dry weather prevail.  Overnight lows will
be very similar to values the past few nights, with readings
expected in the 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Continue to see a ridge over the region for the midweek. This will
keep us above normal for temps with dry conditions. The GFS
continues to be the wet model for diurnal convection Thursday
afternoon, but this time the NAM and SREF also hint at something
going on in our east. Decided to go ahead an put in slight chance
pops east of I-65, as forecast soundings do indicate some potential
for isolated coverage given convective temperatures around 80.
Limiting factor here will be lack of focusing mechanism as well
moisture, with precipitable waters in the low one inch range.

Kept Friday dry, though GFS again tries to bring in some QPF. System
off the southeast U.S. coast should be able to provide us some
subsidence to limit rain chances. Then for Saturday we tap into some
better moisture coming in from the west, as well as a weakening
system over the southeast U.S. Thus have chance pops, mainly in my
Indiana counties. This chance will spread to the rest of the region
Sunday and Monday, with the better focus looking to be on Monday as
a cold front approaches the region.

We should stay in a warm pattern through this period, given no real
airmass changes. Thus have highs each day solidly in the 80s, with
perhaps a spot or two touching 90 on Friday or Saturday. These
readings would be 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

VFR conditions are expected as upper level ridging slowly builds
over the region. Winds are expected to be calm or light southerly
early this morning with some light fog possible at BWG towards dawn.
Winds during the daylight hours today will be out of the SSW around
8-10 knots. Scattered cu is expected to develop by mid day with some
upper level clouds possible as well.  Winds will decrease in
strength again this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 050506
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
106 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a trough across
the southwestern CONUS, with downstream ridging across the Ohio
Valley.  This ridging will amplify over the region through the
short-term period, bringing continued dry and mild conditions.

Convection from last night into this morning across IL/IN laid out
an outflow boundary which has now pushed into western Ohio and
southern IN, but it has become very diffuse as it has largely mixed
out.  The enhanced cu that had been found along this boundary have
since dissipated, likely due to a thicker cirrus shield pushing into
southern Indiana from the west.  Latest mesoanalysis depicts
500-1000+ J/kg of uncapped MLCAPE across southern IN and
west-central KY, so a rogue storm developing still cannot be ruled
out.  However, the lack of surface convergence will limit
shower/storm potential and coverage, thus will go with a dry
forecast through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

For tonight, clouds should once again largely dissipate leading to a
mostly clear night.  Overnight lows will be very similar to last
night, perhaps a little warmer given the warmer high temperatures
and slightly higher dewpoints we`ve experienced today.  This puts
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s.

More of the same can be expected tomorrow as ridging amplifies over
the region.  This should push today`s convection associated with a
weak surface front over IN/IL/MI well north by tomorrow afternoon.
Southwesterly winds and sunshine will once again combine to push
temperatures into the low and mid 80s.

The broken record of pleasant weather continues into tomorrow night,
as mainly clear skies and dry weather prevail.  Overnight lows will
be very similar to values the past few nights, with readings
expected in the 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Continue to see a ridge over the region for the midweek. This will
keep us above normal for temps with dry conditions. The GFS
continues to be the wet model for diurnal convection Thursday
afternoon, but this time the NAM and SREF also hint at something
going on in our east. Decided to go ahead an put in slight chance
pops east of I-65, as forecast soundings do indicate some potential
for isolated coverage given convective temperatures around 80.
Limiting factor here will be lack of focusing mechanism as well
moisture, with precipitable waters in the low one inch range.

Kept Friday dry, though GFS again tries to bring in some QPF. System
off the southeast U.S. coast should be able to provide us some
subsidence to limit rain chances. Then for Saturday we tap into some
better moisture coming in from the west, as well as a weakening
system over the southeast U.S. Thus have chance pops, mainly in my
Indiana counties. This chance will spread to the rest of the region
Sunday and Monday, with the better focus looking to be on Monday as
a cold front approaches the region.

We should stay in a warm pattern through this period, given no real
airmass changes. Thus have highs each day solidly in the 80s, with
perhaps a spot or two touching 90 on Friday or Saturday. These
readings would be 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015

VFR conditions are expected as upper level ridging slowly builds
over the region. Winds are expected to be calm or light southerly
early this morning with some light fog possible at BWG towards dawn.
Winds during the daylight hours today will be out of the SSW around
8-10 knots. Scattered cu is expected to develop by mid day with some
upper level clouds possible as well.  Winds will decrease in
strength again this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 042245
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a trough across
the southwestern CONUS, with downstream ridging across the Ohio
Valley.  This ridging will amplify over the region through the
short-term period, bringing continued dry and mild conditions.

Convection from last night into this morning across IL/IN laid out
an outflow boundary which has now pushed into western Ohio and
southern IN, but it has become very diffuse as it has largely mixed
out.  The enhanced cu that had been found along this boundary have
since dissipated, likely due to a thicker cirrus shield pushing into
southern Indiana from the west.  Latest mesoanalysis depicts
500-1000+ J/kg of uncapped MLCAPE across southern IN and
west-central KY, so a rogue storm developing still cannot be ruled
out.  However, the lack of surface convergence will limit
shower/storm potential and coverage, thus will go with a dry
forecast through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

For tonight, clouds should once again largely dissipate leading to a
mostly clear night.  Overnight lows will be very similar to last
night, perhaps a little warmer given the warmer high temperatures
and slightly higher dewpoints we`ve experienced today.  This puts
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s.

More of the same can be expected tomorrow as ridging amplifies over
the region.  This should push today`s convection associated with a
weak surface front over IN/IL/MI well north by tomorrow afternoon.
Southwesterly winds and sunshine will once again combine to push
temperatures into the low and mid 80s.

The broken record of pleasant weather continues into tomorrow night,
as mainly clear skies and dry weather prevail.  Overnight lows will
be very similar to values the past few nights, with readings
expected in the 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Continue to see a ridge over the region for the midweek. This will
keep us above normal for precip with dry conditions. The GFS
continues to be the wet model for diurnal convection Thursday
afternoon, but this time the NAM and SREF also hint at something
going on in our east. Decided to go ahead an put in slight chance
pops east of I-65, as forecast soundings do indicate some potential
for isolated coverage given convective temperatures around 80.
Limiting factor here will be lack of focusing mechanism as well
moisture, with precipitable waters in the low one inch range.

Kept Friday dry, though GFS again tries to bring in some QPF. System
off the southeast U.S. coast should be able to provide us some
subsidence to limit rain chances. Then for Saturday we tap into some
better moisture coming in from the west, as well as a weakening
system over the southeast U.S. Thus have chance pops, mainly in my
Indiana counties. This chance will spread to the rest of the region
Sunday and Monday, with the better focus looking to be on Monday as
a cold front approaches the region.

We should stay in a warm pattern through this period, given no real
airmass changes. Thus have highs each day solidly in the 80s, with
perhaps a spot or two touching 90 on Friday or Saturday. These
readings would be 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through this
forecast period. Winds will become light and variable overnight with
scattered mid to high clouds. Some light fog may be possible at BWG
towards dawn. Winds tomorrow will once again be out of the SSW
around 8-10 knots. Scattered cu is expected to develop by mid day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 041924
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a trough across
the southwestern CONUS, with downstream ridging across the Ohio
Valley.  This ridging will amplify over the region through the
short-term period, bringing continued dry and mild conditions.

Convection from last night into this morning across IL/IN laid out
an outflow boundary which has now pushed into western Ohio and
southern IN, but it has become very diffuse as it has largely mixed
out.  The enhanced cu that had been found along this boundary have
since dissipated, likely due to a thicker cirrus shield pushing into
southern Indiana from the west.  Latest mesoanalysis depicts
500-1000+ J/kg of uncapped MLCAPE across southern IN and
west-central KY, so a rogue storm developing still cannot be ruled
out.  However, the lack of surface convergence will limit
shower/storm potential and coverage, thus will go with a dry
forecast through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

For tonight, clouds should once again largely dissipate leading to a
mostly clear night.  Overnight lows will be very similar to last
night, perhaps a little warmer given the warmer high temperatures
and slightly higher dewpoints we`ve experienced today.  This puts
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s.

More of the same can be expected tomorrow as ridging amplifies over
the region.  This should push today`s convection associated with a
weak surface front over IN/IL/MI well north by tomorrow afternoon.
Southwesterly winds and sunshine will once again combine to push
temperatures into the low and mid 80s.

The broken record of pleasant weather continues into tomorrow night,
as mainly clear skies and dry weather prevail.  Overnight lows will
be very similar to values the past few nights, with readings
expected in the 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Continue to see a ridge over the region for the midweek. This will
keep us above normal for precip with dry conditions. The GFS
continues to be the wet model for diurnal convection Thursday
afternoon, but this time the NAM and SREF also hint at something
going on in our east. Decided to go ahead an put in slight chance
pops east of I-65, as forecast soundings do indicate some potential
for isolated coverage given convective temperatures around 80.
Limiting factor here will be lack of focusing mechanism as well
moisture, with precipitable waters in the low one inch range.

Kept Friday dry, though GFS again tries to bring in some QPF. System
off the southeast U.S. coast should be able to provide us some
subsidence to limit rain chances. Then for Saturday we tap into some
better moisture coming in from the west, as well as a weakening
system over the southeast U.S. Thus have chance pops, mainly in my
Indiana counties. This chance will spread to the rest of the region
Sunday and Monday, with the better focus looking to be on Monday as
a cold front approaches the region.

We should stay in a warm pattern through this period, given no real
airmass changes. Thus have highs each day solidly in the 80s, with
perhaps a spot or two touching 90 on Friday or Saturday. These
readings would be 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1258 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX/BWG through the TAF period.
Scattered to broken high-level clouds will move overhead at times
this afternoon, with winds out of the SSW around 10 knots with some
gusts near 20 kts possible.  There may be some light fog at KBWG
tonight given dewpoints are running higher than they were yesterday,
but will leave any restrictions out for now given little support
from guidance.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the
period.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 041924
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a trough across
the southwestern CONUS, with downstream ridging across the Ohio
Valley.  This ridging will amplify over the region through the
short-term period, bringing continued dry and mild conditions.

Convection from last night into this morning across IL/IN laid out
an outflow boundary which has now pushed into western Ohio and
southern IN, but it has become very diffuse as it has largely mixed
out.  The enhanced cu that had been found along this boundary have
since dissipated, likely due to a thicker cirrus shield pushing into
southern Indiana from the west.  Latest mesoanalysis depicts
500-1000+ J/kg of uncapped MLCAPE across southern IN and
west-central KY, so a rogue storm developing still cannot be ruled
out.  However, the lack of surface convergence will limit
shower/storm potential and coverage, thus will go with a dry
forecast through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

For tonight, clouds should once again largely dissipate leading to a
mostly clear night.  Overnight lows will be very similar to last
night, perhaps a little warmer given the warmer high temperatures
and slightly higher dewpoints we`ve experienced today.  This puts
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s.

More of the same can be expected tomorrow as ridging amplifies over
the region.  This should push today`s convection associated with a
weak surface front over IN/IL/MI well north by tomorrow afternoon.
Southwesterly winds and sunshine will once again combine to push
temperatures into the low and mid 80s.

The broken record of pleasant weather continues into tomorrow night,
as mainly clear skies and dry weather prevail.  Overnight lows will
be very similar to values the past few nights, with readings
expected in the 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Continue to see a ridge over the region for the midweek. This will
keep us above normal for precip with dry conditions. The GFS
continues to be the wet model for diurnal convection Thursday
afternoon, but this time the NAM and SREF also hint at something
going on in our east. Decided to go ahead an put in slight chance
pops east of I-65, as forecast soundings do indicate some potential
for isolated coverage given convective temperatures around 80.
Limiting factor here will be lack of focusing mechanism as well
moisture, with precipitable waters in the low one inch range.

Kept Friday dry, though GFS again tries to bring in some QPF. System
off the southeast U.S. coast should be able to provide us some
subsidence to limit rain chances. Then for Saturday we tap into some
better moisture coming in from the west, as well as a weakening
system over the southeast U.S. Thus have chance pops, mainly in my
Indiana counties. This chance will spread to the rest of the region
Sunday and Monday, with the better focus looking to be on Monday as
a cold front approaches the region.

We should stay in a warm pattern through this period, given no real
airmass changes. Thus have highs each day solidly in the 80s, with
perhaps a spot or two touching 90 on Friday or Saturday. These
readings would be 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1258 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX/BWG through the TAF period.
Scattered to broken high-level clouds will move overhead at times
this afternoon, with winds out of the SSW around 10 knots with some
gusts near 20 kts possible.  There may be some light fog at KBWG
tonight given dewpoints are running higher than they were yesterday,
but will leave any restrictions out for now given little support
from guidance.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the
period.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 041700
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
100 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Going forecast is well on track with very little changes needed.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows a remnant outflow boundary
from earlier convection across portions of central and southern IN.
This outflow has been enough to trigger some showers/isolated
thunderstorms across central IN, with some enhanced cu development
as far south as southern IN.  Therefore, still think we could see a
rogue shower/storm develop over southern IN this afternoon.
Otherwise, everywhere else looks to remain dry with temperatures
surging into the 80s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A surface analysis early this morning featured high pressure off the
North Carolina coast while a frontal boundary lied from north
central Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa into Kansas. Aloft,
water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights showed mainly zonal
flow across the CONUS with shortwave troughs moving through the
Upper Midwest and central Plains. Locally over the Ohio Valley,
mostly to partly clear skies prevailed with light/variable winds.
Early morning readings were in the mid/upper 50s.

For today, another seasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft builds across the southeast US. Plan on
readings to max out in the low/mid 80s. Sky cover will be variable
as high clouds from convection to our northwest spills over the
region but should be an overall partly cloudy day.

04.00z guidance shows one of the aforementioned shortwave troughs to
push from Iowa into central Indiana and Ohio later today. As the
surface front approaches but then stalls to our north, the
combination will act to initiate showers/storms across Indiana. The
main question is how far south will this develop. The NAM/SREF are
the more aggressive solutions, bringing precip as far south as
south-central KY. However, the GEM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs keep
the forecast area dry. A look at the hi-res suite, the NSSL and SPC
WRF runs do show isolated late afternoon convection across parts of
our southern Indiana counties (Orange to Jefferson IN). Soundings
for these locations exhibit MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with modest
mid-level lapse rates in an uncapped environment. With the upper
forcing passing by as well, feel there support for a stray late
afternoon, early evening shower/storm. As a result, introduced
slight chance afternoon POPs across the far north.

A dry/mild night is then expected as the front stalls west to east
from northern Iowa through north central Indiana and Ohio. We`ll
have light southwest winds under mostly clear skies. Plan on lows
in the upper 50s to around 60 and highs 80-85.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A relatively dry pattern with temperatures warming solidly into the
80s is on tap for mid to late week.  The pleasant weather will be
courtesy of a REX block setup.  Will continue to side with drier
models given the pattern.  The 0Z GFS/0Z GEM do bring the tropical
system farther inland on Thurs which may spread moisture a bit
farther north and west closer to our region.  Will need to monitor
evolution of this tropical system in coming days, but don`t feel a
POP is necessary for Thurs attm.

The upper ridge really doesn`t start to break down over our area
until this weekend with varying time frames on when that will
actually occur.  Will side with the slower models given "slower" has
been the trend in the past few days.  So will start low POPs on
Sunday as ripples in the upper level flow start to provide triggers
for convection.  Then an upper trough arrives for the beginning of
next week bringing better precip chances for Mon.

For temps, highs will range from the low to mid 80s throughout the
week with perhaps the warmest days being Fri/Sat where many
locations will reach the mid 80s.  Low temps will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1258 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX/BWG through the TAF period.
Scattered to broken high-level clouds will move overhead at times
this afternoon, with winds out of the SSW around 10 knots with some
gusts near 20 kts possible.  There may be some light fog at KBWG
tonight given dewpoints are running higher than they were yesterday,
but will leave any restrictions out for now given little support
from guidance.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the
period.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 041700
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
100 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Going forecast is well on track with very little changes needed.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows a remnant outflow boundary
from earlier convection across portions of central and southern IN.
This outflow has been enough to trigger some showers/isolated
thunderstorms across central IN, with some enhanced cu development
as far south as southern IN.  Therefore, still think we could see a
rogue shower/storm develop over southern IN this afternoon.
Otherwise, everywhere else looks to remain dry with temperatures
surging into the 80s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A surface analysis early this morning featured high pressure off the
North Carolina coast while a frontal boundary lied from north
central Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa into Kansas. Aloft,
water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights showed mainly zonal
flow across the CONUS with shortwave troughs moving through the
Upper Midwest and central Plains. Locally over the Ohio Valley,
mostly to partly clear skies prevailed with light/variable winds.
Early morning readings were in the mid/upper 50s.

For today, another seasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft builds across the southeast US. Plan on
readings to max out in the low/mid 80s. Sky cover will be variable
as high clouds from convection to our northwest spills over the
region but should be an overall partly cloudy day.

04.00z guidance shows one of the aforementioned shortwave troughs to
push from Iowa into central Indiana and Ohio later today. As the
surface front approaches but then stalls to our north, the
combination will act to initiate showers/storms across Indiana. The
main question is how far south will this develop. The NAM/SREF are
the more aggressive solutions, bringing precip as far south as
south-central KY. However, the GEM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs keep
the forecast area dry. A look at the hi-res suite, the NSSL and SPC
WRF runs do show isolated late afternoon convection across parts of
our southern Indiana counties (Orange to Jefferson IN). Soundings
for these locations exhibit MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with modest
mid-level lapse rates in an uncapped environment. With the upper
forcing passing by as well, feel there support for a stray late
afternoon, early evening shower/storm. As a result, introduced
slight chance afternoon POPs across the far north.

A dry/mild night is then expected as the front stalls west to east
from northern Iowa through north central Indiana and Ohio. We`ll
have light southwest winds under mostly clear skies. Plan on lows
in the upper 50s to around 60 and highs 80-85.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A relatively dry pattern with temperatures warming solidly into the
80s is on tap for mid to late week.  The pleasant weather will be
courtesy of a REX block setup.  Will continue to side with drier
models given the pattern.  The 0Z GFS/0Z GEM do bring the tropical
system farther inland on Thurs which may spread moisture a bit
farther north and west closer to our region.  Will need to monitor
evolution of this tropical system in coming days, but don`t feel a
POP is necessary for Thurs attm.

The upper ridge really doesn`t start to break down over our area
until this weekend with varying time frames on when that will
actually occur.  Will side with the slower models given "slower" has
been the trend in the past few days.  So will start low POPs on
Sunday as ripples in the upper level flow start to provide triggers
for convection.  Then an upper trough arrives for the beginning of
next week bringing better precip chances for Mon.

For temps, highs will range from the low to mid 80s throughout the
week with perhaps the warmest days being Fri/Sat where many
locations will reach the mid 80s.  Low temps will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1258 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX/BWG through the TAF period.
Scattered to broken high-level clouds will move overhead at times
this afternoon, with winds out of the SSW around 10 knots with some
gusts near 20 kts possible.  There may be some light fog at KBWG
tonight given dewpoints are running higher than they were yesterday,
but will leave any restrictions out for now given little support
from guidance.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the
period.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 041617
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Going forecast is well on track with very little changes needed.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows a remnant outflow boundary
from earlier convection across portions of central and southern IN.
This outflow has been enough to trigger some showers/isolated
thunderstorms across central IN, with some enhanced cu development
as far south as southern IN.  Therefore, still think we could see a
rogue shower/storm develop over southern IN this afternoon.
Otherwise, everywhere else looks to remain dry with temperatures
surging into the 80s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A surface analysis early this morning featured high pressure off the
North Carolina coast while a frontal boundary lied from north
central Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa into Kansas. Aloft,
water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights showed mainly zonal
flow across the CONUS with shortwave troughs moving through the
Upper Midwest and central Plains. Locally over the Ohio Valley,
mostly to partly clear skies prevailed with light/variable winds.
Early morning readings were in the mid/upper 50s.

For today, another seasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft builds across the southeast US. Plan on
readings to max out in the low/mid 80s. Sky cover will be variable
as high clouds from convection to our northwest spills over the
region but should be an overall partly cloudy day.

04.00z guidance shows one of the aforementioned shortwave troughs to
push from Iowa into central Indiana and Ohio later today. As the
surface front approaches but then stalls to our north, the
combination will act to initiate showers/storms across Indiana. The
main question is how far south will this develop. The NAM/SREF are
the more aggressive solutions, bringing precip as far south as
south-central KY. However, the GEM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs keep
the forecast area dry. A look at the hi-res suite, the NSSL and SPC
WRF runs do show isolated late afternoon convection across parts of
our southern Indiana counties (Orange to Jefferson IN). Soundings
for these locations exhibit MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with modest
mid-level lapse rates in an uncapped environment. With the upper
forcing passing by as well, feel there support for a stray late
afternoon, early evening shower/storm. As a result, introduced
slight chance afternoon POPs across the far north.

A dry/mild night is then expected as the front stalls west to east
from northern Iowa through north central Indiana and Ohio. We`ll
have light southwest winds under mostly clear skies. Plan on lows
in the upper 50s to around 60 and highs 80-85.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A relatively dry pattern with temperatures warming solidly into the
80s is on tap for mid to late week.  The pleasant weather will be
courtesy of a REX block setup.  Will continue to side with drier
models given the pattern.  The 0Z GFS/0Z GEM do bring the tropical
system farther inland on Thurs which may spread moisture a bit
farther north and west closer to our region.  Will need to monitor
evolution of this tropical system in coming days, but don`t feel a
POP is necessary for Thurs attm.

The upper ridge really doesn`t start to break down over our area
until this weekend with varying time frames on when that will
actually occur.  Will side with the slower models given "slower" has
been the trend in the past few days.  So will start low POPs on
Sunday as ripples in the upper level flow start to provide triggers
for convection.  Then an upper trough arrives for the beginning of
next week bringing better precip chances for Mon.

For temps, highs will range from the low to mid 80s throughout the
week with perhaps the warmest days being Fri/Sat where many
locations will reach the mid 80s.  Low temps will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 618 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX/BWG through the TAF period.
Scattered to broken high level clouds will move overhead at times
during the day and winds will be generally out of the south between
10-12 kts by afternoon. Some afternoon gusts near 20 kts are
possible.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 041617
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Going forecast is well on track with very little changes needed.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows a remnant outflow boundary
from earlier convection across portions of central and southern IN.
This outflow has been enough to trigger some showers/isolated
thunderstorms across central IN, with some enhanced cu development
as far south as southern IN.  Therefore, still think we could see a
rogue shower/storm develop over southern IN this afternoon.
Otherwise, everywhere else looks to remain dry with temperatures
surging into the 80s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A surface analysis early this morning featured high pressure off the
North Carolina coast while a frontal boundary lied from north
central Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa into Kansas. Aloft,
water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights showed mainly zonal
flow across the CONUS with shortwave troughs moving through the
Upper Midwest and central Plains. Locally over the Ohio Valley,
mostly to partly clear skies prevailed with light/variable winds.
Early morning readings were in the mid/upper 50s.

For today, another seasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft builds across the southeast US. Plan on
readings to max out in the low/mid 80s. Sky cover will be variable
as high clouds from convection to our northwest spills over the
region but should be an overall partly cloudy day.

04.00z guidance shows one of the aforementioned shortwave troughs to
push from Iowa into central Indiana and Ohio later today. As the
surface front approaches but then stalls to our north, the
combination will act to initiate showers/storms across Indiana. The
main question is how far south will this develop. The NAM/SREF are
the more aggressive solutions, bringing precip as far south as
south-central KY. However, the GEM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs keep
the forecast area dry. A look at the hi-res suite, the NSSL and SPC
WRF runs do show isolated late afternoon convection across parts of
our southern Indiana counties (Orange to Jefferson IN). Soundings
for these locations exhibit MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with modest
mid-level lapse rates in an uncapped environment. With the upper
forcing passing by as well, feel there support for a stray late
afternoon, early evening shower/storm. As a result, introduced
slight chance afternoon POPs across the far north.

A dry/mild night is then expected as the front stalls west to east
from northern Iowa through north central Indiana and Ohio. We`ll
have light southwest winds under mostly clear skies. Plan on lows
in the upper 50s to around 60 and highs 80-85.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A relatively dry pattern with temperatures warming solidly into the
80s is on tap for mid to late week.  The pleasant weather will be
courtesy of a REX block setup.  Will continue to side with drier
models given the pattern.  The 0Z GFS/0Z GEM do bring the tropical
system farther inland on Thurs which may spread moisture a bit
farther north and west closer to our region.  Will need to monitor
evolution of this tropical system in coming days, but don`t feel a
POP is necessary for Thurs attm.

The upper ridge really doesn`t start to break down over our area
until this weekend with varying time frames on when that will
actually occur.  Will side with the slower models given "slower" has
been the trend in the past few days.  So will start low POPs on
Sunday as ripples in the upper level flow start to provide triggers
for convection.  Then an upper trough arrives for the beginning of
next week bringing better precip chances for Mon.

For temps, highs will range from the low to mid 80s throughout the
week with perhaps the warmest days being Fri/Sat where many
locations will reach the mid 80s.  Low temps will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 618 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX/BWG through the TAF period.
Scattered to broken high level clouds will move overhead at times
during the day and winds will be generally out of the south between
10-12 kts by afternoon. Some afternoon gusts near 20 kts are
possible.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 041617
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Going forecast is well on track with very little changes needed.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows a remnant outflow boundary
from earlier convection across portions of central and southern IN.
This outflow has been enough to trigger some showers/isolated
thunderstorms across central IN, with some enhanced cu development
as far south as southern IN.  Therefore, still think we could see a
rogue shower/storm develop over southern IN this afternoon.
Otherwise, everywhere else looks to remain dry with temperatures
surging into the 80s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A surface analysis early this morning featured high pressure off the
North Carolina coast while a frontal boundary lied from north
central Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa into Kansas. Aloft,
water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights showed mainly zonal
flow across the CONUS with shortwave troughs moving through the
Upper Midwest and central Plains. Locally over the Ohio Valley,
mostly to partly clear skies prevailed with light/variable winds.
Early morning readings were in the mid/upper 50s.

For today, another seasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft builds across the southeast US. Plan on
readings to max out in the low/mid 80s. Sky cover will be variable
as high clouds from convection to our northwest spills over the
region but should be an overall partly cloudy day.

04.00z guidance shows one of the aforementioned shortwave troughs to
push from Iowa into central Indiana and Ohio later today. As the
surface front approaches but then stalls to our north, the
combination will act to initiate showers/storms across Indiana. The
main question is how far south will this develop. The NAM/SREF are
the more aggressive solutions, bringing precip as far south as
south-central KY. However, the GEM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs keep
the forecast area dry. A look at the hi-res suite, the NSSL and SPC
WRF runs do show isolated late afternoon convection across parts of
our southern Indiana counties (Orange to Jefferson IN). Soundings
for these locations exhibit MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with modest
mid-level lapse rates in an uncapped environment. With the upper
forcing passing by as well, feel there support for a stray late
afternoon, early evening shower/storm. As a result, introduced
slight chance afternoon POPs across the far north.

A dry/mild night is then expected as the front stalls west to east
from northern Iowa through north central Indiana and Ohio. We`ll
have light southwest winds under mostly clear skies. Plan on lows
in the upper 50s to around 60 and highs 80-85.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A relatively dry pattern with temperatures warming solidly into the
80s is on tap for mid to late week.  The pleasant weather will be
courtesy of a REX block setup.  Will continue to side with drier
models given the pattern.  The 0Z GFS/0Z GEM do bring the tropical
system farther inland on Thurs which may spread moisture a bit
farther north and west closer to our region.  Will need to monitor
evolution of this tropical system in coming days, but don`t feel a
POP is necessary for Thurs attm.

The upper ridge really doesn`t start to break down over our area
until this weekend with varying time frames on when that will
actually occur.  Will side with the slower models given "slower" has
been the trend in the past few days.  So will start low POPs on
Sunday as ripples in the upper level flow start to provide triggers
for convection.  Then an upper trough arrives for the beginning of
next week bringing better precip chances for Mon.

For temps, highs will range from the low to mid 80s throughout the
week with perhaps the warmest days being Fri/Sat where many
locations will reach the mid 80s.  Low temps will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 618 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX/BWG through the TAF period.
Scattered to broken high level clouds will move overhead at times
during the day and winds will be generally out of the south between
10-12 kts by afternoon. Some afternoon gusts near 20 kts are
possible.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......ZT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 041617
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 PM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Going forecast is well on track with very little changes needed.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows a remnant outflow boundary
from earlier convection across portions of central and southern IN.
This outflow has been enough to trigger some showers/isolated
thunderstorms across central IN, with some enhanced cu development
as far south as southern IN.  Therefore, still think we could see a
rogue shower/storm develop over southern IN this afternoon.
Otherwise, everywhere else looks to remain dry with temperatures
surging into the 80s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A surface analysis early this morning featured high pressure off the
North Carolina coast while a frontal boundary lied from north
central Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa into Kansas. Aloft,
water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights showed mainly zonal
flow across the CONUS with shortwave troughs moving through the
Upper Midwest and central Plains. Locally over the Ohio Valley,
mostly to partly clear skies prevailed with light/variable winds.
Early morning readings were in the mid/upper 50s.

For today, another seasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft builds across the southeast US. Plan on
readings to max out in the low/mid 80s. Sky cover will be variable
as high clouds from convection to our northwest spills over the
region but should be an overall partly cloudy day.

04.00z guidance shows one of the aforementioned shortwave troughs to
push from Iowa into central Indiana and Ohio later today. As the
surface front approaches but then stalls to our north, the
combination will act to initiate showers/storms across Indiana. The
main question is how far south will this develop. The NAM/SREF are
the more aggressive solutions, bringing precip as far south as
south-central KY. However, the GEM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs keep
the forecast area dry. A look at the hi-res suite, the NSSL and SPC
WRF runs do show isolated late afternoon convection across parts of
our southern Indiana counties (Orange to Jefferson IN). Soundings
for these locations exhibit MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with modest
mid-level lapse rates in an uncapped environment. With the upper
forcing passing by as well, feel there support for a stray late
afternoon, early evening shower/storm. As a result, introduced
slight chance afternoon POPs across the far north.

A dry/mild night is then expected as the front stalls west to east
from northern Iowa through north central Indiana and Ohio. We`ll
have light southwest winds under mostly clear skies. Plan on lows
in the upper 50s to around 60 and highs 80-85.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A relatively dry pattern with temperatures warming solidly into the
80s is on tap for mid to late week.  The pleasant weather will be
courtesy of a REX block setup.  Will continue to side with drier
models given the pattern.  The 0Z GFS/0Z GEM do bring the tropical
system farther inland on Thurs which may spread moisture a bit
farther north and west closer to our region.  Will need to monitor
evolution of this tropical system in coming days, but don`t feel a
POP is necessary for Thurs attm.

The upper ridge really doesn`t start to break down over our area
until this weekend with varying time frames on when that will
actually occur.  Will side with the slower models given "slower" has
been the trend in the past few days.  So will start low POPs on
Sunday as ripples in the upper level flow start to provide triggers
for convection.  Then an upper trough arrives for the beginning of
next week bringing better precip chances for Mon.

For temps, highs will range from the low to mid 80s throughout the
week with perhaps the warmest days being Fri/Sat where many
locations will reach the mid 80s.  Low temps will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 618 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX/BWG through the TAF period.
Scattered to broken high level clouds will move overhead at times
during the day and winds will be generally out of the south between
10-12 kts by afternoon. Some afternoon gusts near 20 kts are
possible.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......ZT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 041023
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
623 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A surface analysis early this morning featured high pressure off the
North Carolina coast while a frontal boundary lied from north
central Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa into Kansas. Aloft,
water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights showed mainly zonal
flow across the CONUS with shortwave troughs moving through the
Upper Midwest and central Plains. Locally over the Ohio Valley,
mostly to partly clear skies prevailed with light/variable winds.
Early morning readings were in the mid/upper 50s.

For today, another seasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft builds across the southeast US. Plan on
readings to max out in the low/mid 80s. Sky cover will be variable
as high clouds from convection to our northwest spills over the
region but should be an overall partly cloudy day.

04.00z guidance shows one of the aforementioned shortwave troughs to
push from Iowa into central Indiana and Ohio later today. As the
surface front approaches but then stalls to our north, the
combination will act to initiate showers/storms across Indiana. The
main question is how far south will this develop. The NAM/SREF are
the more aggressive solutions, bringing precip as far south as
south-central KY. However, the GEM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs keep
the forecast area dry. A look at the hi-res suite, the NSSL and SPC
WRF runs do show isolated late afternoon convection across parts of
our southern Indiana counties (Orange to Jefferson IN). Soundings
for these locations exhibit MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with modest
mid-level lapse rates in an uncapped environment. With the upper
forcing passing by as well, feel there support for a stray late
afternoon, early evening shower/storm. As a result, introduced
slight chance afternoon POPs across the far north.

A dry/mild night is then expected as the front stalls west to east
from northern Iowa through north central Indiana and Ohio. We`ll
have light southwest winds under mostly clear skies. Plan on lows
in the upper 50s to around 60 and highs 80-85.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A relatively dry pattern with temperatures warming solidly into the
80s is on tap for mid to late week.  The pleasant weather will be
courtesy of a REX block setup.  Will continue to side with drier
models given the pattern.  The 0Z GFS/0Z GEM do bring the tropical
system farther inland on Thurs which may spread moisture a bit
farther north and west closer to our region.  Will need to monitor
evolution of this tropical system in coming days, but don`t feel a
POP is necessary for Thurs attm.

The upper ridge really doesn`t start to break down over our area
until this weekend with varying time frames on when that will
actually occur.  Will side with the slower models given "slower" has
been the trend in the past few days.  So will start low POPs on
Sunday as ripples in the upper level flow start to provide triggers
for convection.  Then an upper trough arrives for the beginning of
next week bringing better precip chances for Mon.

For temps, highs will range from the low to mid 80s throughout the
week with perhaps the warmest days being Fri/Sat where many
locations will reach the mid 80s.  Low temps will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 618 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX/BWG through the TAF period.
Scattered to broken high level clouds will move overhead at times
during the day and winds will be generally out of the south between
10-12 kts by afternoon. Some afternoon gusts near 20 kts are
possible.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 041023
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
623 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A surface analysis early this morning featured high pressure off the
North Carolina coast while a frontal boundary lied from north
central Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa into Kansas. Aloft,
water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights showed mainly zonal
flow across the CONUS with shortwave troughs moving through the
Upper Midwest and central Plains. Locally over the Ohio Valley,
mostly to partly clear skies prevailed with light/variable winds.
Early morning readings were in the mid/upper 50s.

For today, another seasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft builds across the southeast US. Plan on
readings to max out in the low/mid 80s. Sky cover will be variable
as high clouds from convection to our northwest spills over the
region but should be an overall partly cloudy day.

04.00z guidance shows one of the aforementioned shortwave troughs to
push from Iowa into central Indiana and Ohio later today. As the
surface front approaches but then stalls to our north, the
combination will act to initiate showers/storms across Indiana. The
main question is how far south will this develop. The NAM/SREF are
the more aggressive solutions, bringing precip as far south as
south-central KY. However, the GEM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs keep
the forecast area dry. A look at the hi-res suite, the NSSL and SPC
WRF runs do show isolated late afternoon convection across parts of
our southern Indiana counties (Orange to Jefferson IN). Soundings
for these locations exhibit MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with modest
mid-level lapse rates in an uncapped environment. With the upper
forcing passing by as well, feel there support for a stray late
afternoon, early evening shower/storm. As a result, introduced
slight chance afternoon POPs across the far north.

A dry/mild night is then expected as the front stalls west to east
from northern Iowa through north central Indiana and Ohio. We`ll
have light southwest winds under mostly clear skies. Plan on lows
in the upper 50s to around 60 and highs 80-85.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A relatively dry pattern with temperatures warming solidly into the
80s is on tap for mid to late week.  The pleasant weather will be
courtesy of a REX block setup.  Will continue to side with drier
models given the pattern.  The 0Z GFS/0Z GEM do bring the tropical
system farther inland on Thurs which may spread moisture a bit
farther north and west closer to our region.  Will need to monitor
evolution of this tropical system in coming days, but don`t feel a
POP is necessary for Thurs attm.

The upper ridge really doesn`t start to break down over our area
until this weekend with varying time frames on when that will
actually occur.  Will side with the slower models given "slower" has
been the trend in the past few days.  So will start low POPs on
Sunday as ripples in the upper level flow start to provide triggers
for convection.  Then an upper trough arrives for the beginning of
next week bringing better precip chances for Mon.

For temps, highs will range from the low to mid 80s throughout the
week with perhaps the warmest days being Fri/Sat where many
locations will reach the mid 80s.  Low temps will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 618 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX/BWG through the TAF period.
Scattered to broken high level clouds will move overhead at times
during the day and winds will be generally out of the south between
10-12 kts by afternoon. Some afternoon gusts near 20 kts are
possible.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 040705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A surface analysis early this morning featured high pressure off the
North Carolina coast while a frontal boundary lied from north
central Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa into Kansas. Aloft,
water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights showed mainly zonal
flow across the CONUS with shortwave troughs moving through the
Upper Midwest and central Plains. Locally over the Ohio Valley,
mostly to partly clear skies prevailed with light/variable winds.
Early morning readings were in the mid/upper 50s.

For today, another seasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft builds across the southeast US. Plan on
readings to max out in the low/mid 80s. Sky cover will be variable
as high clouds from convection to our northwest spills over the
region but should be an overall partly cloudy day.

04.00z guidance shows one of the aforementioned shortwave troughs to
push from Iowa into central Indiana and Ohio later today. As the
surface front approaches but then stalls to our north, the
combination will act to initiate showers/storms across Indiana. The
main question is how far south will this develop. The NAM/SREF are
the more aggressive solutions, bringing precip as far south as
south-central KY. However, the GEM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs keep
the forecast area dry. A look at the hi-res suite, the NSSL and SPC
WRF runs do show isolated late afternoon convection across parts of
our southern Indiana counties (Orange to Jefferson IN). Soundings
for these locations exhibit MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with modest
mid-level lapse rates in an uncapped environment. With the upper
forcing passing by as well, feel there support for a stray late
afternoon, early evening shower/storm. As a result, introduced
slight chance afternoon POPs across the far north.

A dry/mild night is then expected as the front stalls west to east
from northern Iowa through north central Indiana and Ohio. We`ll
have light southwest winds under mostly clear skies. Plan on lows
in the upper 50s to around 60 and highs 80-85.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A relatively dry pattern with temperatures warming solidly into the
80s is on tap for mid to late week.  The pleasant weather will be
courtesy of a REX block setup.  Will continue to side with drier
models given the pattern.  The 0Z GFS/0Z GEM do bring the tropical
system farther inland on Thurs which may spread moisture a bit
farther north and west closer to our region.  Will need to monitor
evolution of this tropical system in coming days, but don`t feel a
POP is necessary for Thurs attm.

The upper ridge really doesn`t start to break down over our area
until this weekend with varying time frames on when that will
actually occur.  Will side with the slower models given "slower" has
been the trend in the past few days.  So will start low POPs on
Sunday as ripples in the upper level flow start to provide triggers
for convection.  Then an upper trough arrives for the beginning of
next week bringing better precip chances for Mon.

For temps, highs will range from the low to mid 80s throughout the
week with perhaps the warmest days being Fri/Sat where many
locations will reach the mid 80s.  Low temps will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX through the TAF period. High level
clouds will move overhead at times during the day and winds will be
generally out of the south between 10-12 kts by afternoon. Some
afternoon gusts near 20 kts possible at SDF/LEX. At BWG, pre-dawn
light fog remains possible, otherwise plan on VFR conditions.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 040705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A surface analysis early this morning featured high pressure off the
North Carolina coast while a frontal boundary lied from north
central Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa into Kansas. Aloft,
water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights showed mainly zonal
flow across the CONUS with shortwave troughs moving through the
Upper Midwest and central Plains. Locally over the Ohio Valley,
mostly to partly clear skies prevailed with light/variable winds.
Early morning readings were in the mid/upper 50s.

For today, another seasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft builds across the southeast US. Plan on
readings to max out in the low/mid 80s. Sky cover will be variable
as high clouds from convection to our northwest spills over the
region but should be an overall partly cloudy day.

04.00z guidance shows one of the aforementioned shortwave troughs to
push from Iowa into central Indiana and Ohio later today. As the
surface front approaches but then stalls to our north, the
combination will act to initiate showers/storms across Indiana. The
main question is how far south will this develop. The NAM/SREF are
the more aggressive solutions, bringing precip as far south as
south-central KY. However, the GEM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs keep
the forecast area dry. A look at the hi-res suite, the NSSL and SPC
WRF runs do show isolated late afternoon convection across parts of
our southern Indiana counties (Orange to Jefferson IN). Soundings
for these locations exhibit MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with modest
mid-level lapse rates in an uncapped environment. With the upper
forcing passing by as well, feel there support for a stray late
afternoon, early evening shower/storm. As a result, introduced
slight chance afternoon POPs across the far north.

A dry/mild night is then expected as the front stalls west to east
from northern Iowa through north central Indiana and Ohio. We`ll
have light southwest winds under mostly clear skies. Plan on lows
in the upper 50s to around 60 and highs 80-85.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A relatively dry pattern with temperatures warming solidly into the
80s is on tap for mid to late week.  The pleasant weather will be
courtesy of a REX block setup.  Will continue to side with drier
models given the pattern.  The 0Z GFS/0Z GEM do bring the tropical
system farther inland on Thurs which may spread moisture a bit
farther north and west closer to our region.  Will need to monitor
evolution of this tropical system in coming days, but don`t feel a
POP is necessary for Thurs attm.

The upper ridge really doesn`t start to break down over our area
until this weekend with varying time frames on when that will
actually occur.  Will side with the slower models given "slower" has
been the trend in the past few days.  So will start low POPs on
Sunday as ripples in the upper level flow start to provide triggers
for convection.  Then an upper trough arrives for the beginning of
next week bringing better precip chances for Mon.

For temps, highs will range from the low to mid 80s throughout the
week with perhaps the warmest days being Fri/Sat where many
locations will reach the mid 80s.  Low temps will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX through the TAF period. High level
clouds will move overhead at times during the day and winds will be
generally out of the south between 10-12 kts by afternoon. Some
afternoon gusts near 20 kts possible at SDF/LEX. At BWG, pre-dawn
light fog remains possible, otherwise plan on VFR conditions.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 040705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A surface analysis early this morning featured high pressure off the
North Carolina coast while a frontal boundary lied from north
central Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa into Kansas. Aloft,
water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights showed mainly zonal
flow across the CONUS with shortwave troughs moving through the
Upper Midwest and central Plains. Locally over the Ohio Valley,
mostly to partly clear skies prevailed with light/variable winds.
Early morning readings were in the mid/upper 50s.

For today, another seasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft builds across the southeast US. Plan on
readings to max out in the low/mid 80s. Sky cover will be variable
as high clouds from convection to our northwest spills over the
region but should be an overall partly cloudy day.

04.00z guidance shows one of the aforementioned shortwave troughs to
push from Iowa into central Indiana and Ohio later today. As the
surface front approaches but then stalls to our north, the
combination will act to initiate showers/storms across Indiana. The
main question is how far south will this develop. The NAM/SREF are
the more aggressive solutions, bringing precip as far south as
south-central KY. However, the GEM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs keep
the forecast area dry. A look at the hi-res suite, the NSSL and SPC
WRF runs do show isolated late afternoon convection across parts of
our southern Indiana counties (Orange to Jefferson IN). Soundings
for these locations exhibit MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with modest
mid-level lapse rates in an uncapped environment. With the upper
forcing passing by as well, feel there support for a stray late
afternoon, early evening shower/storm. As a result, introduced
slight chance afternoon POPs across the far north.

A dry/mild night is then expected as the front stalls west to east
from northern Iowa through north central Indiana and Ohio. We`ll
have light southwest winds under mostly clear skies. Plan on lows
in the upper 50s to around 60 and highs 80-85.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A relatively dry pattern with temperatures warming solidly into the
80s is on tap for mid to late week.  The pleasant weather will be
courtesy of a REX block setup.  Will continue to side with drier
models given the pattern.  The 0Z GFS/0Z GEM do bring the tropical
system farther inland on Thurs which may spread moisture a bit
farther north and west closer to our region.  Will need to monitor
evolution of this tropical system in coming days, but don`t feel a
POP is necessary for Thurs attm.

The upper ridge really doesn`t start to break down over our area
until this weekend with varying time frames on when that will
actually occur.  Will side with the slower models given "slower" has
been the trend in the past few days.  So will start low POPs on
Sunday as ripples in the upper level flow start to provide triggers
for convection.  Then an upper trough arrives for the beginning of
next week bringing better precip chances for Mon.

For temps, highs will range from the low to mid 80s throughout the
week with perhaps the warmest days being Fri/Sat where many
locations will reach the mid 80s.  Low temps will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX through the TAF period. High level
clouds will move overhead at times during the day and winds will be
generally out of the south between 10-12 kts by afternoon. Some
afternoon gusts near 20 kts possible at SDF/LEX. At BWG, pre-dawn
light fog remains possible, otherwise plan on VFR conditions.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 040705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A surface analysis early this morning featured high pressure off the
North Carolina coast while a frontal boundary lied from north
central Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa into Kansas. Aloft,
water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights showed mainly zonal
flow across the CONUS with shortwave troughs moving through the
Upper Midwest and central Plains. Locally over the Ohio Valley,
mostly to partly clear skies prevailed with light/variable winds.
Early morning readings were in the mid/upper 50s.

For today, another seasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft builds across the southeast US. Plan on
readings to max out in the low/mid 80s. Sky cover will be variable
as high clouds from convection to our northwest spills over the
region but should be an overall partly cloudy day.

04.00z guidance shows one of the aforementioned shortwave troughs to
push from Iowa into central Indiana and Ohio later today. As the
surface front approaches but then stalls to our north, the
combination will act to initiate showers/storms across Indiana. The
main question is how far south will this develop. The NAM/SREF are
the more aggressive solutions, bringing precip as far south as
south-central KY. However, the GEM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs keep
the forecast area dry. A look at the hi-res suite, the NSSL and SPC
WRF runs do show isolated late afternoon convection across parts of
our southern Indiana counties (Orange to Jefferson IN). Soundings
for these locations exhibit MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with modest
mid-level lapse rates in an uncapped environment. With the upper
forcing passing by as well, feel there support for a stray late
afternoon, early evening shower/storm. As a result, introduced
slight chance afternoon POPs across the far north.

A dry/mild night is then expected as the front stalls west to east
from northern Iowa through north central Indiana and Ohio. We`ll
have light southwest winds under mostly clear skies. Plan on lows
in the upper 50s to around 60 and highs 80-85.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

A relatively dry pattern with temperatures warming solidly into the
80s is on tap for mid to late week.  The pleasant weather will be
courtesy of a REX block setup.  Will continue to side with drier
models given the pattern.  The 0Z GFS/0Z GEM do bring the tropical
system farther inland on Thurs which may spread moisture a bit
farther north and west closer to our region.  Will need to monitor
evolution of this tropical system in coming days, but don`t feel a
POP is necessary for Thurs attm.

The upper ridge really doesn`t start to break down over our area
until this weekend with varying time frames on when that will
actually occur.  Will side with the slower models given "slower" has
been the trend in the past few days.  So will start low POPs on
Sunday as ripples in the upper level flow start to provide triggers
for convection.  Then an upper trough arrives for the beginning of
next week bringing better precip chances for Mon.

For temps, highs will range from the low to mid 80s throughout the
week with perhaps the warmest days being Fri/Sat where many
locations will reach the mid 80s.  Low temps will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX through the TAF period. High level
clouds will move overhead at times during the day and winds will be
generally out of the south between 10-12 kts by afternoon. Some
afternoon gusts near 20 kts possible at SDF/LEX. At BWG, pre-dawn
light fog remains possible, otherwise plan on VFR conditions.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 040507
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features generally weak zonal
flow aloft, which will slowly amplify through the short term
period.  This regime will bring seasonably warm temperatures and
continued dry conditions to the Ohio Valley.

For tonight, we will continue to see a few passing mid/high clouds.
Southwest winds will slacken overnight, once again allowing for some
patchy fog to develop in some isolated, fog prone locations.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

For tomorrow, expect more of the same with partly cloudy skies and
southwesterly surface winds continuing.  A surface front will slide
into northern IL/IN during the day.  This front and associated
precipitation should stay to the north of the region, but can`t
completely rule out a rogue shower across southern IN tomorrow.
This threat appears very low, so will continue with a dry forecast.
Much of the convective debris should remain to the north of the
region, thus the sunshine coupled with 850mb temperatures about one
degree warmer than today and good southwesterly surface flow should
yield highs in the low to mid 80s.  Overnight lows tomorrow night
will drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Overall pattern being forecasted by the guidance has not changed
significantly in the last few days.  A highly amplified upper level
pattern characterized by a trough in the western US with a ridge
across the east is forecast to persist throughout much of the long
term period.  The global models are still suggesting that some sort
of tropical system will develop off the SE US coast and the
development of a Rex block still looks likely from mid-late week.
Thus, this should keep the overall trough west, ridge east pattern
going as we head into next weekend.

With the trough out to the west, we`ll see a continued broad
southwesterly flow continue across much of the Ohio Valley.  Main
moisture plume still looks to remain out to our west while we remain
near the upper ridge axis.  Thus, overall precipitation chances look
to be below climatology through the period.  Based on the latest
data, we feel that most, if not all of next will remain generally
rain free.  Temperatures will gradually moderate through the
period.  The beginning of the period will see temperatures in the
upper 70s to the lower 80s with readings generally warming into the
81-86 degree range for the remainder of the week.  Overnight low
temperatures will generally cool into the upper 50s to around 60.
Stuck close to an ECMWF/GEM compromise on raw temps here based on
recent verification stats.

Toward the end of the period, it still appears the pattern will
break down and the upper trough will eventually head eastward.  Much
of this forecast will depend on the evolution of the upper low
expected to be in the southwest Atlantic.  Should the blocking
pattern aloft hold a little longer, the overall breakdown of the
pattern may end up being delayed by a few days into early next
week.  For now, have cut back on PoPs and kept them in the isolated
range for Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX through the TAF period. High level
clouds will move overhead at times during the day and winds will be
generally out of the south between 10-12 kts by afternoon. Some
afternoon gusts near 20 kts possible. At BWG, pre-dawn light fog
remains possible, otherwise plan on VFR conditions.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........ZT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 040507
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features generally weak zonal
flow aloft, which will slowly amplify through the short term
period.  This regime will bring seasonably warm temperatures and
continued dry conditions to the Ohio Valley.

For tonight, we will continue to see a few passing mid/high clouds.
Southwest winds will slacken overnight, once again allowing for some
patchy fog to develop in some isolated, fog prone locations.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

For tomorrow, expect more of the same with partly cloudy skies and
southwesterly surface winds continuing.  A surface front will slide
into northern IL/IN during the day.  This front and associated
precipitation should stay to the north of the region, but can`t
completely rule out a rogue shower across southern IN tomorrow.
This threat appears very low, so will continue with a dry forecast.
Much of the convective debris should remain to the north of the
region, thus the sunshine coupled with 850mb temperatures about one
degree warmer than today and good southwesterly surface flow should
yield highs in the low to mid 80s.  Overnight lows tomorrow night
will drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Overall pattern being forecasted by the guidance has not changed
significantly in the last few days.  A highly amplified upper level
pattern characterized by a trough in the western US with a ridge
across the east is forecast to persist throughout much of the long
term period.  The global models are still suggesting that some sort
of tropical system will develop off the SE US coast and the
development of a Rex block still looks likely from mid-late week.
Thus, this should keep the overall trough west, ridge east pattern
going as we head into next weekend.

With the trough out to the west, we`ll see a continued broad
southwesterly flow continue across much of the Ohio Valley.  Main
moisture plume still looks to remain out to our west while we remain
near the upper ridge axis.  Thus, overall precipitation chances look
to be below climatology through the period.  Based on the latest
data, we feel that most, if not all of next will remain generally
rain free.  Temperatures will gradually moderate through the
period.  The beginning of the period will see temperatures in the
upper 70s to the lower 80s with readings generally warming into the
81-86 degree range for the remainder of the week.  Overnight low
temperatures will generally cool into the upper 50s to around 60.
Stuck close to an ECMWF/GEM compromise on raw temps here based on
recent verification stats.

Toward the end of the period, it still appears the pattern will
break down and the upper trough will eventually head eastward.  Much
of this forecast will depend on the evolution of the upper low
expected to be in the southwest Atlantic.  Should the blocking
pattern aloft hold a little longer, the overall breakdown of the
pattern may end up being delayed by a few days into early next
week.  For now, have cut back on PoPs and kept them in the isolated
range for Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX through the TAF period. High level
clouds will move overhead at times during the day and winds will be
generally out of the south between 10-12 kts by afternoon. Some
afternoon gusts near 20 kts possible. At BWG, pre-dawn light fog
remains possible, otherwise plan on VFR conditions.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 040507
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features generally weak zonal
flow aloft, which will slowly amplify through the short term
period.  This regime will bring seasonably warm temperatures and
continued dry conditions to the Ohio Valley.

For tonight, we will continue to see a few passing mid/high clouds.
Southwest winds will slacken overnight, once again allowing for some
patchy fog to develop in some isolated, fog prone locations.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

For tomorrow, expect more of the same with partly cloudy skies and
southwesterly surface winds continuing.  A surface front will slide
into northern IL/IN during the day.  This front and associated
precipitation should stay to the north of the region, but can`t
completely rule out a rogue shower across southern IN tomorrow.
This threat appears very low, so will continue with a dry forecast.
Much of the convective debris should remain to the north of the
region, thus the sunshine coupled with 850mb temperatures about one
degree warmer than today and good southwesterly surface flow should
yield highs in the low to mid 80s.  Overnight lows tomorrow night
will drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Overall pattern being forecasted by the guidance has not changed
significantly in the last few days.  A highly amplified upper level
pattern characterized by a trough in the western US with a ridge
across the east is forecast to persist throughout much of the long
term period.  The global models are still suggesting that some sort
of tropical system will develop off the SE US coast and the
development of a Rex block still looks likely from mid-late week.
Thus, this should keep the overall trough west, ridge east pattern
going as we head into next weekend.

With the trough out to the west, we`ll see a continued broad
southwesterly flow continue across much of the Ohio Valley.  Main
moisture plume still looks to remain out to our west while we remain
near the upper ridge axis.  Thus, overall precipitation chances look
to be below climatology through the period.  Based on the latest
data, we feel that most, if not all of next will remain generally
rain free.  Temperatures will gradually moderate through the
period.  The beginning of the period will see temperatures in the
upper 70s to the lower 80s with readings generally warming into the
81-86 degree range for the remainder of the week.  Overnight low
temperatures will generally cool into the upper 50s to around 60.
Stuck close to an ECMWF/GEM compromise on raw temps here based on
recent verification stats.

Toward the end of the period, it still appears the pattern will
break down and the upper trough will eventually head eastward.  Much
of this forecast will depend on the evolution of the upper low
expected to be in the southwest Atlantic.  Should the blocking
pattern aloft hold a little longer, the overall breakdown of the
pattern may end up being delayed by a few days into early next
week.  For now, have cut back on PoPs and kept them in the isolated
range for Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX through the TAF period. High level
clouds will move overhead at times during the day and winds will be
generally out of the south between 10-12 kts by afternoon. Some
afternoon gusts near 20 kts possible. At BWG, pre-dawn light fog
remains possible, otherwise plan on VFR conditions.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 040507
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features generally weak zonal
flow aloft, which will slowly amplify through the short term
period.  This regime will bring seasonably warm temperatures and
continued dry conditions to the Ohio Valley.

For tonight, we will continue to see a few passing mid/high clouds.
Southwest winds will slacken overnight, once again allowing for some
patchy fog to develop in some isolated, fog prone locations.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

For tomorrow, expect more of the same with partly cloudy skies and
southwesterly surface winds continuing.  A surface front will slide
into northern IL/IN during the day.  This front and associated
precipitation should stay to the north of the region, but can`t
completely rule out a rogue shower across southern IN tomorrow.
This threat appears very low, so will continue with a dry forecast.
Much of the convective debris should remain to the north of the
region, thus the sunshine coupled with 850mb temperatures about one
degree warmer than today and good southwesterly surface flow should
yield highs in the low to mid 80s.  Overnight lows tomorrow night
will drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Overall pattern being forecasted by the guidance has not changed
significantly in the last few days.  A highly amplified upper level
pattern characterized by a trough in the western US with a ridge
across the east is forecast to persist throughout much of the long
term period.  The global models are still suggesting that some sort
of tropical system will develop off the SE US coast and the
development of a Rex block still looks likely from mid-late week.
Thus, this should keep the overall trough west, ridge east pattern
going as we head into next weekend.

With the trough out to the west, we`ll see a continued broad
southwesterly flow continue across much of the Ohio Valley.  Main
moisture plume still looks to remain out to our west while we remain
near the upper ridge axis.  Thus, overall precipitation chances look
to be below climatology through the period.  Based on the latest
data, we feel that most, if not all of next will remain generally
rain free.  Temperatures will gradually moderate through the
period.  The beginning of the period will see temperatures in the
upper 70s to the lower 80s with readings generally warming into the
81-86 degree range for the remainder of the week.  Overnight low
temperatures will generally cool into the upper 50s to around 60.
Stuck close to an ECMWF/GEM compromise on raw temps here based on
recent verification stats.

Toward the end of the period, it still appears the pattern will
break down and the upper trough will eventually head eastward.  Much
of this forecast will depend on the evolution of the upper low
expected to be in the southwest Atlantic.  Should the blocking
pattern aloft hold a little longer, the overall breakdown of the
pattern may end up being delayed by a few days into early next
week.  For now, have cut back on PoPs and kept them in the isolated
range for Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon May 4 2015

Plan on VFR conditions at SDF/LEX through the TAF period. High level
clouds will move overhead at times during the day and winds will be
generally out of the south between 10-12 kts by afternoon. Some
afternoon gusts near 20 kts possible. At BWG, pre-dawn light fog
remains possible, otherwise plan on VFR conditions.

Outlook: Above average confidence for VFR conditions through at
least Wednesday.

Forecast Confidence
===================
Winds:      High
Ceilings:   High
Visibility: High

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........ZT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 032248
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features generally weak zonal
flow aloft, which will slowly amplify through the short term
period.  This regime will bring seasonably warm temperatures and
continued dry conditions to the Ohio Valley.

For tonight, we will continue to see a few passing mid/high clouds.
Southwest winds will slacken overnight, once again allowing for some
patchy fog to develop in some isolated, fog prone locations.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

For tomorrow, expect more of the same with partly cloudy skies and
southwesterly surface winds continuing.  A surface front will slide
into northern IL/IN during the day.  This front and associated
precipitation should stay to the north of the region, but can`t
completely rule out a rogue shower across southern IN tomorrow.
This threat appears very low, so will continue with a dry forecast.
Much of the convective debris should remain to the north of the
region, thus the sunshine coupled with 850mb temperatures about one
degree warmer than today and good southwesterly surface flow should
yield highs in the low to mid 80s.  Overnight lows tomorrow night
will drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Overall pattern being forecasted by the guidance has not changed
significantly in the last few days.  A highly amplified upper level
pattern characterized by a trough in the western US with a ridge
across the east is forecast to persist throughout much of the long
term period.  The global models are still suggesting that some sort
of tropical system will develop off the SE US coast and the
development of a Rex block still looks likely from mid-late week.
Thus, this should keep the overall trough west, ridge east pattern
going as we head into next weekend.

With the trough out to the west, we`ll see a continued broad
southwesterly flow continue across much of the Ohio Valley.  Main
moisture plume still looks to remain out to our west while we remain
near the upper ridge axis.  Thus, overall precipitation chances look
to be below climatology through the period.  Based on the latest
data, we feel that most, if not all of next will remain generally
rain free.  Temperatures will gradually moderate through the
period.  The beginning of the period will see temperatures in the
upper 70s to the lower 80s with readings generally warming into the
81-86 degree range for the remainder of the week.  Overnight low
temperatures will generally cool into the upper 50s to around 60.
Stuck close to an ECMWF/GEM compromise on raw temps here based on
recent verification stats.

Toward the end of the period, it still appears the pattern will
break down and the upper trough will eventually head eastward.  Much
of this forecast will depend on the evolution of the upper low
expected to be in the southwest Atlantic.  Should the blocking
pattern aloft hold a little longer, the overall breakdown of the
pattern may end up being delayed by a few days into early next
week.  For now, have cut back on PoPs and kept them in the isolated
range for Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 647 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR conditions are expected at SDF and LEX through the TAF period.
BWG may see some light MVFR fog tomorrow morning, but otherwise
will remain VFR. Winds will become light and variable overnight,
then pick up again tomorrow morning out of the SSW. Scattered mid
and high clouds are expected off an on through the TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 032248
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features generally weak zonal
flow aloft, which will slowly amplify through the short term
period.  This regime will bring seasonably warm temperatures and
continued dry conditions to the Ohio Valley.

For tonight, we will continue to see a few passing mid/high clouds.
Southwest winds will slacken overnight, once again allowing for some
patchy fog to develop in some isolated, fog prone locations.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

For tomorrow, expect more of the same with partly cloudy skies and
southwesterly surface winds continuing.  A surface front will slide
into northern IL/IN during the day.  This front and associated
precipitation should stay to the north of the region, but can`t
completely rule out a rogue shower across southern IN tomorrow.
This threat appears very low, so will continue with a dry forecast.
Much of the convective debris should remain to the north of the
region, thus the sunshine coupled with 850mb temperatures about one
degree warmer than today and good southwesterly surface flow should
yield highs in the low to mid 80s.  Overnight lows tomorrow night
will drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Overall pattern being forecasted by the guidance has not changed
significantly in the last few days.  A highly amplified upper level
pattern characterized by a trough in the western US with a ridge
across the east is forecast to persist throughout much of the long
term period.  The global models are still suggesting that some sort
of tropical system will develop off the SE US coast and the
development of a Rex block still looks likely from mid-late week.
Thus, this should keep the overall trough west, ridge east pattern
going as we head into next weekend.

With the trough out to the west, we`ll see a continued broad
southwesterly flow continue across much of the Ohio Valley.  Main
moisture plume still looks to remain out to our west while we remain
near the upper ridge axis.  Thus, overall precipitation chances look
to be below climatology through the period.  Based on the latest
data, we feel that most, if not all of next will remain generally
rain free.  Temperatures will gradually moderate through the
period.  The beginning of the period will see temperatures in the
upper 70s to the lower 80s with readings generally warming into the
81-86 degree range for the remainder of the week.  Overnight low
temperatures will generally cool into the upper 50s to around 60.
Stuck close to an ECMWF/GEM compromise on raw temps here based on
recent verification stats.

Toward the end of the period, it still appears the pattern will
break down and the upper trough will eventually head eastward.  Much
of this forecast will depend on the evolution of the upper low
expected to be in the southwest Atlantic.  Should the blocking
pattern aloft hold a little longer, the overall breakdown of the
pattern may end up being delayed by a few days into early next
week.  For now, have cut back on PoPs and kept them in the isolated
range for Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 647 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR conditions are expected at SDF and LEX through the TAF period.
BWG may see some light MVFR fog tomorrow morning, but otherwise
will remain VFR. Winds will become light and variable overnight,
then pick up again tomorrow morning out of the SSW. Scattered mid
and high clouds are expected off an on through the TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 031905
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features generally weak zonal
flow aloft, which will slowly amplify through the short term
period.  This regime will bring seasonably warm temperatures and
continued dry conditions to the Ohio Valley.

For tonight, we will continue to see a few passing mid/high clouds.
Southwest winds will slacken overnight, once again allowing for some
patchy fog to develop in some isolated, fog prone locations.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

For tomorrow, expect more of the same with partly cloudy skies and
southwesterly surface winds continuing.  A surface front will slide
into northern IL/IN during the day.  This front and associated
precipitation should stay to the north of the region, but can`t
completely rule out a rogue shower across southern IN tomorrow.
This threat appears very low, so will continue with a dry forecast.
Much of the convective debris should remain to the north of the
region, thus the sunshine coupled with 850mb temperatures about one
degree warmer than today and good southwesterly surface flow should
yield highs in the low to mid 80s.  Overnight lows tomorrow night
will drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Overall pattern being forecasted by the guidance has not changed
significantly in the last few days.  A highly amplified upper level
pattern characterized by a trough in the western US with a ridge
across the east is forecast to persist throughout much of the long
term period.  The global models are still suggesting that some sort
of tropical system will develop off the SE US coast and the
development of a Rex block still looks likely from mid-late week.
Thus, this should keep the overall trough west, ridge east pattern
going as we head into next weekend.

With the trough out to the west, we`ll see a continued broad
southwesterly flow continue across much of the Ohio Valley.  Main
moisture plume still looks to remain out to our west while we remain
near the upper ridge axis.  Thus, overall precipitation chances look
to be below climatology through the period.  Based on the latest
data, we feel that most, if not all of next will remain generally
rain free.  Temperatures will gradually moderate through the
period.  The beginning of the period will see temperatures in the
upper 70s to the lower 80s with readings generally warming into the
81-86 degree range for the remainder of the week.  Overnight low
temperatures will generally cool into the upper 50s to around 60.
Stuck close to an ECMWF/GEM compromise on raw temps here based on
recent verification stats.

Toward the end of the period, it still appears the pattern will
break down and the upper trough will eventually head eastward.  Much
of this forecast will depend on the evolution of the upper low
expected to be in the southwest Atlantic.  Should the blocking
pattern aloft hold a little longer, the overall breakdown of the
pattern may end up being delayed by a few days into early next
week.  For now, have cut back on PoPs and kept them in the isolated
range for Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1249 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist at the TAF sites today. Scattered/broken
high clouds will continue to stream over the region and winds will
remain out of S/SW. Another night of light winds and mostly clear
skies could result in light, shallow fog again at BWG during the
pre-dawn hours Monday.  Otherwise, Monday will be similar today
with WSW winds and just some passing mid/high clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 031650
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

3 AM surface analysis showed high pressure centered over North
Carolina, extending its reach from the Gulf Coast into the northeast
US. Aloft, water vapor imagery revealed a weak shortwave trough near
Chicago within an overall dirty zonal/weak northwest flow. Locally
across the lower Ohio Valley, readings were generally in the 50s.
Scattered high level cloudiness was spilling over southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky.

For today, another seasonably warm spring day is on tap for the
region. The aforementioned high pressure will drift off the NC
coast, resulting in weak southerly flow on the backside. Plan on
high temperatures to be roughly 3-5 degrees warmer than Saturday, so
most spots will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. By afternoon,
look for few to scattered cumulus and dewpoints to mix out into the
low/mid 40s, keeping humidity levels in the comfortable range. Plan
on another mild and mostly clear night as readings fall into the mid
50s by early Monday morning.

Upper level ridging builds further on Monday across southeast US
into the lower Ohio Valley, which will act to hold a frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary lies up from southern Michigan
into central Illinois and Missouri. Will continue dry forecast and
given a bump in 850 mb temperatures, trended highs up a couple
degrees. Bias-corrected guidance puts the entire forecast area in
the low 80s and the typical warm, urban locations in the mid 80s.
South afternoon breezes around 10 mph can be expected under mostly
to partly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

A REX block with an upper level ridge centered over the Midwest
still looks to control the mid week forecast.  With upper level
ridging in place solidly over the Ohio Valley Tues-Thurs, have gone
with a dry forecast.  One could argue a dry forecast for Friday also
as ridging still looks pretty strong over the area with a slower
trend noted in forecast models of the ridge break down.  However,
for consistency sake, will keep isld chances for convection Friday.

The GFS is the most optimistic with QPF Tues-Thu generating
afternoon precip each day.  Think that the GFS QPF is overdone
overall, but it might have the right idea of perhaps an isld cell or
two bubbling up during the late afternoon or evening hours at or
just beyond peak heating.  However, at this point, will stick with a
dry multi-model consensus for Tues-Thu.

The upper level ridge does start to break down by the end of the
week as the western coast upper trough makes progress inland.  Upper
level shortwave activity will pass through the Ohio Valley as this
occurs resulting in better precip chances by the weekend (20-30%).

Temperatures will be above normal in the long term period with a
warming trend noted in the last few model runs for the end of the
long term period.  Highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s are forecast for
Tue/Wed with highs solidly in the low to mid 80s for Thurs-Sat.  Low
temps will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1249 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist at the TAF sites today. Scattered/broken
high clouds will continue to stream over the region and winds will
remain out of S/SW. Another night of light winds and mostly clear
skies could result in light, shallow fog again at BWG during the
pre-dawn hours Monday.  Otherwise, Monday will be similar today
with WSW winds and just some passing mid/high clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 031650
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

3 AM surface analysis showed high pressure centered over North
Carolina, extending its reach from the Gulf Coast into the northeast
US. Aloft, water vapor imagery revealed a weak shortwave trough near
Chicago within an overall dirty zonal/weak northwest flow. Locally
across the lower Ohio Valley, readings were generally in the 50s.
Scattered high level cloudiness was spilling over southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky.

For today, another seasonably warm spring day is on tap for the
region. The aforementioned high pressure will drift off the NC
coast, resulting in weak southerly flow on the backside. Plan on
high temperatures to be roughly 3-5 degrees warmer than Saturday, so
most spots will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. By afternoon,
look for few to scattered cumulus and dewpoints to mix out into the
low/mid 40s, keeping humidity levels in the comfortable range. Plan
on another mild and mostly clear night as readings fall into the mid
50s by early Monday morning.

Upper level ridging builds further on Monday across southeast US
into the lower Ohio Valley, which will act to hold a frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary lies up from southern Michigan
into central Illinois and Missouri. Will continue dry forecast and
given a bump in 850 mb temperatures, trended highs up a couple
degrees. Bias-corrected guidance puts the entire forecast area in
the low 80s and the typical warm, urban locations in the mid 80s.
South afternoon breezes around 10 mph can be expected under mostly
to partly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

A REX block with an upper level ridge centered over the Midwest
still looks to control the mid week forecast.  With upper level
ridging in place solidly over the Ohio Valley Tues-Thurs, have gone
with a dry forecast.  One could argue a dry forecast for Friday also
as ridging still looks pretty strong over the area with a slower
trend noted in forecast models of the ridge break down.  However,
for consistency sake, will keep isld chances for convection Friday.

The GFS is the most optimistic with QPF Tues-Thu generating
afternoon precip each day.  Think that the GFS QPF is overdone
overall, but it might have the right idea of perhaps an isld cell or
two bubbling up during the late afternoon or evening hours at or
just beyond peak heating.  However, at this point, will stick with a
dry multi-model consensus for Tues-Thu.

The upper level ridge does start to break down by the end of the
week as the western coast upper trough makes progress inland.  Upper
level shortwave activity will pass through the Ohio Valley as this
occurs resulting in better precip chances by the weekend (20-30%).

Temperatures will be above normal in the long term period with a
warming trend noted in the last few model runs for the end of the
long term period.  Highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s are forecast for
Tue/Wed with highs solidly in the low to mid 80s for Thurs-Sat.  Low
temps will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1249 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist at the TAF sites today. Scattered/broken
high clouds will continue to stream over the region and winds will
remain out of S/SW. Another night of light winds and mostly clear
skies could result in light, shallow fog again at BWG during the
pre-dawn hours Monday.  Otherwise, Monday will be similar today
with WSW winds and just some passing mid/high clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 031650
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

3 AM surface analysis showed high pressure centered over North
Carolina, extending its reach from the Gulf Coast into the northeast
US. Aloft, water vapor imagery revealed a weak shortwave trough near
Chicago within an overall dirty zonal/weak northwest flow. Locally
across the lower Ohio Valley, readings were generally in the 50s.
Scattered high level cloudiness was spilling over southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky.

For today, another seasonably warm spring day is on tap for the
region. The aforementioned high pressure will drift off the NC
coast, resulting in weak southerly flow on the backside. Plan on
high temperatures to be roughly 3-5 degrees warmer than Saturday, so
most spots will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. By afternoon,
look for few to scattered cumulus and dewpoints to mix out into the
low/mid 40s, keeping humidity levels in the comfortable range. Plan
on another mild and mostly clear night as readings fall into the mid
50s by early Monday morning.

Upper level ridging builds further on Monday across southeast US
into the lower Ohio Valley, which will act to hold a frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary lies up from southern Michigan
into central Illinois and Missouri. Will continue dry forecast and
given a bump in 850 mb temperatures, trended highs up a couple
degrees. Bias-corrected guidance puts the entire forecast area in
the low 80s and the typical warm, urban locations in the mid 80s.
South afternoon breezes around 10 mph can be expected under mostly
to partly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

A REX block with an upper level ridge centered over the Midwest
still looks to control the mid week forecast.  With upper level
ridging in place solidly over the Ohio Valley Tues-Thurs, have gone
with a dry forecast.  One could argue a dry forecast for Friday also
as ridging still looks pretty strong over the area with a slower
trend noted in forecast models of the ridge break down.  However,
for consistency sake, will keep isld chances for convection Friday.

The GFS is the most optimistic with QPF Tues-Thu generating
afternoon precip each day.  Think that the GFS QPF is overdone
overall, but it might have the right idea of perhaps an isld cell or
two bubbling up during the late afternoon or evening hours at or
just beyond peak heating.  However, at this point, will stick with a
dry multi-model consensus for Tues-Thu.

The upper level ridge does start to break down by the end of the
week as the western coast upper trough makes progress inland.  Upper
level shortwave activity will pass through the Ohio Valley as this
occurs resulting in better precip chances by the weekend (20-30%).

Temperatures will be above normal in the long term period with a
warming trend noted in the last few model runs for the end of the
long term period.  Highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s are forecast for
Tue/Wed with highs solidly in the low to mid 80s for Thurs-Sat.  Low
temps will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1249 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist at the TAF sites today. Scattered/broken
high clouds will continue to stream over the region and winds will
remain out of S/SW. Another night of light winds and mostly clear
skies could result in light, shallow fog again at BWG during the
pre-dawn hours Monday.  Otherwise, Monday will be similar today
with WSW winds and just some passing mid/high clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 031650
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

3 AM surface analysis showed high pressure centered over North
Carolina, extending its reach from the Gulf Coast into the northeast
US. Aloft, water vapor imagery revealed a weak shortwave trough near
Chicago within an overall dirty zonal/weak northwest flow. Locally
across the lower Ohio Valley, readings were generally in the 50s.
Scattered high level cloudiness was spilling over southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky.

For today, another seasonably warm spring day is on tap for the
region. The aforementioned high pressure will drift off the NC
coast, resulting in weak southerly flow on the backside. Plan on
high temperatures to be roughly 3-5 degrees warmer than Saturday, so
most spots will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. By afternoon,
look for few to scattered cumulus and dewpoints to mix out into the
low/mid 40s, keeping humidity levels in the comfortable range. Plan
on another mild and mostly clear night as readings fall into the mid
50s by early Monday morning.

Upper level ridging builds further on Monday across southeast US
into the lower Ohio Valley, which will act to hold a frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary lies up from southern Michigan
into central Illinois and Missouri. Will continue dry forecast and
given a bump in 850 mb temperatures, trended highs up a couple
degrees. Bias-corrected guidance puts the entire forecast area in
the low 80s and the typical warm, urban locations in the mid 80s.
South afternoon breezes around 10 mph can be expected under mostly
to partly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

A REX block with an upper level ridge centered over the Midwest
still looks to control the mid week forecast.  With upper level
ridging in place solidly over the Ohio Valley Tues-Thurs, have gone
with a dry forecast.  One could argue a dry forecast for Friday also
as ridging still looks pretty strong over the area with a slower
trend noted in forecast models of the ridge break down.  However,
for consistency sake, will keep isld chances for convection Friday.

The GFS is the most optimistic with QPF Tues-Thu generating
afternoon precip each day.  Think that the GFS QPF is overdone
overall, but it might have the right idea of perhaps an isld cell or
two bubbling up during the late afternoon or evening hours at or
just beyond peak heating.  However, at this point, will stick with a
dry multi-model consensus for Tues-Thu.

The upper level ridge does start to break down by the end of the
week as the western coast upper trough makes progress inland.  Upper
level shortwave activity will pass through the Ohio Valley as this
occurs resulting in better precip chances by the weekend (20-30%).

Temperatures will be above normal in the long term period with a
warming trend noted in the last few model runs for the end of the
long term period.  Highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s are forecast for
Tue/Wed with highs solidly in the low to mid 80s for Thurs-Sat.  Low
temps will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1249 PM EDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist at the TAF sites today. Scattered/broken
high clouds will continue to stream over the region and winds will
remain out of S/SW. Another night of light winds and mostly clear
skies could result in light, shallow fog again at BWG during the
pre-dawn hours Monday.  Otherwise, Monday will be similar today
with WSW winds and just some passing mid/high clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 031010
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
610 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

3 AM surface analysis showed high pressure centered over North
Carolina, extending its reach from the Gulf Coast into the northeast
US. Aloft, water vapor imagery revealed a weak shortwave trough near
Chicago within an overall dirty zonal/weak northwest flow. Locally
across the lower Ohio Valley, readings were generally in the 50s.
Scattered high level cloudiness was spilling over southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky.

For today, another seasonably warm spring day is on tap for the
region. The aforementioned high pressure will drift off the NC
coast, resulting in weak southerly flow on the backside. Plan on
high temperatures to be roughly 3-5 degrees warmer than Saturday, so
most spots will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. By afternoon,
look for few to scattered cumulus and dewpoints to mix out into the
low/mid 40s, keeping humidity levels in the comfortable range. Plan
on another mild and mostly clear night as readings fall into the mid
50s by early Monday morning.

Upper level ridging builds further on Monday across southeast US
into the lower Ohio Valley, which will act to hold a frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary lies up from southern Michigan
into central Illinois and Missouri. Will continue dry forecast and
given a bump in 850 mb temperatures, trended highs up a couple
degrees. Bias-corrected guidance puts the entire forecast area in
the low 80s and the typical warm, urban locations in the mid 80s.
South afternoon breezes around 10 mph can be expected under mostly
to partly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

A REX block with an upper level ridge centered over the Midwest
still looks to control the mid week forecast.  With upper level
ridging in place solidly over the Ohio Valley Tues-Thurs, have gone
with a dry forecast.  One could argue a dry forecast for Friday also
as ridging still looks pretty strong over the area with a slower
trend noted in forecast models of the ridge break down.  However,
for consistency sake, will keep isld chances for convection Friday.

The GFS is the most optimistic with QPF Tues-Thu generating
afternoon precip each day.  Think that the GFS QPF is overdone
overall, but it might have the right idea of perhaps an isld cell or
two bubbling up during the late afternoon or evening hours at or
just beyond peak heating.  However, at this point, will stick with a
dry multi-model consensus for Tues-Thu.

The upper level ridge does start to break down by the end of the
week as the western coast upper trough makes progress inland.  Upper
level shortwave activity will pass through the Ohio Valley as this
occurs resulting in better precip chances by the weekend (20-30%).

Temperatures will be above normal in the long term period with a
warming trend noted in the last few model runs for the end of the
long term period.  Highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s are forecast for
Tue/Wed with highs solidly in the low to mid 80s for Thurs-Sat.  Low
temps will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 608 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Combination of light winds, clear skies and moist boundary layer
will continue 1-3 sm fog at BWG through about 12-13z. Otherwise, plan
on VFR conditions at the TAF sites today. Scattered/broken high
clouds will move over the region and winds will gradually become out
of S/SW. Another night of light winds and mostly clear skies will
likely result in light fog again at BWG during the pre-dawn hours
Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 031010
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
610 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

3 AM surface analysis showed high pressure centered over North
Carolina, extending its reach from the Gulf Coast into the northeast
US. Aloft, water vapor imagery revealed a weak shortwave trough near
Chicago within an overall dirty zonal/weak northwest flow. Locally
across the lower Ohio Valley, readings were generally in the 50s.
Scattered high level cloudiness was spilling over southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky.

For today, another seasonably warm spring day is on tap for the
region. The aforementioned high pressure will drift off the NC
coast, resulting in weak southerly flow on the backside. Plan on
high temperatures to be roughly 3-5 degrees warmer than Saturday, so
most spots will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. By afternoon,
look for few to scattered cumulus and dewpoints to mix out into the
low/mid 40s, keeping humidity levels in the comfortable range. Plan
on another mild and mostly clear night as readings fall into the mid
50s by early Monday morning.

Upper level ridging builds further on Monday across southeast US
into the lower Ohio Valley, which will act to hold a frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary lies up from southern Michigan
into central Illinois and Missouri. Will continue dry forecast and
given a bump in 850 mb temperatures, trended highs up a couple
degrees. Bias-corrected guidance puts the entire forecast area in
the low 80s and the typical warm, urban locations in the mid 80s.
South afternoon breezes around 10 mph can be expected under mostly
to partly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

A REX block with an upper level ridge centered over the Midwest
still looks to control the mid week forecast.  With upper level
ridging in place solidly over the Ohio Valley Tues-Thurs, have gone
with a dry forecast.  One could argue a dry forecast for Friday also
as ridging still looks pretty strong over the area with a slower
trend noted in forecast models of the ridge break down.  However,
for consistency sake, will keep isld chances for convection Friday.

The GFS is the most optimistic with QPF Tues-Thu generating
afternoon precip each day.  Think that the GFS QPF is overdone
overall, but it might have the right idea of perhaps an isld cell or
two bubbling up during the late afternoon or evening hours at or
just beyond peak heating.  However, at this point, will stick with a
dry multi-model consensus for Tues-Thu.

The upper level ridge does start to break down by the end of the
week as the western coast upper trough makes progress inland.  Upper
level shortwave activity will pass through the Ohio Valley as this
occurs resulting in better precip chances by the weekend (20-30%).

Temperatures will be above normal in the long term period with a
warming trend noted in the last few model runs for the end of the
long term period.  Highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s are forecast for
Tue/Wed with highs solidly in the low to mid 80s for Thurs-Sat.  Low
temps will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 608 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Combination of light winds, clear skies and moist boundary layer
will continue 1-3 sm fog at BWG through about 12-13z. Otherwise, plan
on VFR conditions at the TAF sites today. Scattered/broken high
clouds will move over the region and winds will gradually become out
of S/SW. Another night of light winds and mostly clear skies will
likely result in light fog again at BWG during the pre-dawn hours
Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 031010
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
610 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

3 AM surface analysis showed high pressure centered over North
Carolina, extending its reach from the Gulf Coast into the northeast
US. Aloft, water vapor imagery revealed a weak shortwave trough near
Chicago within an overall dirty zonal/weak northwest flow. Locally
across the lower Ohio Valley, readings were generally in the 50s.
Scattered high level cloudiness was spilling over southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky.

For today, another seasonably warm spring day is on tap for the
region. The aforementioned high pressure will drift off the NC
coast, resulting in weak southerly flow on the backside. Plan on
high temperatures to be roughly 3-5 degrees warmer than Saturday, so
most spots will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. By afternoon,
look for few to scattered cumulus and dewpoints to mix out into the
low/mid 40s, keeping humidity levels in the comfortable range. Plan
on another mild and mostly clear night as readings fall into the mid
50s by early Monday morning.

Upper level ridging builds further on Monday across southeast US
into the lower Ohio Valley, which will act to hold a frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary lies up from southern Michigan
into central Illinois and Missouri. Will continue dry forecast and
given a bump in 850 mb temperatures, trended highs up a couple
degrees. Bias-corrected guidance puts the entire forecast area in
the low 80s and the typical warm, urban locations in the mid 80s.
South afternoon breezes around 10 mph can be expected under mostly
to partly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

A REX block with an upper level ridge centered over the Midwest
still looks to control the mid week forecast.  With upper level
ridging in place solidly over the Ohio Valley Tues-Thurs, have gone
with a dry forecast.  One could argue a dry forecast for Friday also
as ridging still looks pretty strong over the area with a slower
trend noted in forecast models of the ridge break down.  However,
for consistency sake, will keep isld chances for convection Friday.

The GFS is the most optimistic with QPF Tues-Thu generating
afternoon precip each day.  Think that the GFS QPF is overdone
overall, but it might have the right idea of perhaps an isld cell or
two bubbling up during the late afternoon or evening hours at or
just beyond peak heating.  However, at this point, will stick with a
dry multi-model consensus for Tues-Thu.

The upper level ridge does start to break down by the end of the
week as the western coast upper trough makes progress inland.  Upper
level shortwave activity will pass through the Ohio Valley as this
occurs resulting in better precip chances by the weekend (20-30%).

Temperatures will be above normal in the long term period with a
warming trend noted in the last few model runs for the end of the
long term period.  Highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s are forecast for
Tue/Wed with highs solidly in the low to mid 80s for Thurs-Sat.  Low
temps will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 608 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Combination of light winds, clear skies and moist boundary layer
will continue 1-3 sm fog at BWG through about 12-13z. Otherwise, plan
on VFR conditions at the TAF sites today. Scattered/broken high
clouds will move over the region and winds will gradually become out
of S/SW. Another night of light winds and mostly clear skies will
likely result in light fog again at BWG during the pre-dawn hours
Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 030706
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

3 AM surface analysis showed high pressure centered over North
Carolina, extending its reach from the Gulf Coast into the northeast
US. Aloft, water vapor imagery revealed a weak shortwave trough near
Chicago within an overall dirty zonal/weak northwest flow. Locally
across the lower Ohio Valley, readings were generally in the 50s.
Scattered high level cloudiness was spilling over southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky.

For today, another seasonably warm spring day is on tap for the
region. The aforementioned high pressure will drift off the NC
coast, resulting in weak southerly flow on the backside. Plan on
high temperatures to be roughly 3-5 degrees warmer than Saturday, so
most spots will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. By afternoon,
look for few to scattered cumulus and dewpoints to mix out into the
low/mid 40s, keeping humidity levels in the comfortable range. Plan
on another mild and mostly clear night as readings fall into the mid
50s by early Monday morning.

Upper level ridging builds further on Monday across southeast US
into the lower Ohio Valley, which will act to hold a frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary lies up from southern Michigan
into central Illinois and Missouri. Will continue dry forecast and
given a bump in 850 mb temperatures, trended highs up a couple
degrees. Bias-corrected guidance puts the entire forecast area in
the low 80s and the typical warm, urban locations in the mid 80s.
South afternoon breezes around 10 mph can be expected under mostly
to partly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

A REX block with an upper level ridge centered over the Midwest
still looks to control the mid week forecast.  With upper level
ridging in place solidly over the Ohio Valley Tues-Thurs, have gone
with a dry forecast.  One could argue a dry forecast for Friday also
as ridging still looks pretty strong over the area with a slower
trend noted in forecast models of the ridge break down.  However,
for consistency sake, will keep isld chances for convection Friday.

The GFS is the most optimistic with QPF Tues-Thu generating
afternoon precip each day.  Think that the GFS QPF is overdone
overall, but it might have the right idea of perhaps an isld cell or
two bubbling up during the late afternoon or evening hours at or
just beyond peak heating.  However, at this point, will stick with a
dry multi-model consensus for Tues-Thu.

The upper level ridge does start to break down by the end of the
week as the western coast upper trough makes progress inland.  Upper
level shortwave activity will pass through the Ohio Valley as this
occurs resulting in better precip chances by the weekend (20-30%).

Temperatures will be above normal in the long term period with a
warming trend noted in the last few model runs for the end of the
long term period.  Highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s are forecast for
Tue/Wed with highs solidly in the low to mid 80s for Thurs-Sat.  Low
temps will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1235 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Plan on VFR conditions through the period as high pressure pushes
off to the southeast. High clouds will move over SDF/LEX/BWG early
this morning, then look for scattered cu with bases around 5 kft
this afternoon. Light/variable winds this morning are expected to be
southerly to southwesterly between 5 and 10 kft by afternoon and
tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 030706
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

3 AM surface analysis showed high pressure centered over North
Carolina, extending its reach from the Gulf Coast into the northeast
US. Aloft, water vapor imagery revealed a weak shortwave trough near
Chicago within an overall dirty zonal/weak northwest flow. Locally
across the lower Ohio Valley, readings were generally in the 50s.
Scattered high level cloudiness was spilling over southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky.

For today, another seasonably warm spring day is on tap for the
region. The aforementioned high pressure will drift off the NC
coast, resulting in weak southerly flow on the backside. Plan on
high temperatures to be roughly 3-5 degrees warmer than Saturday, so
most spots will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. By afternoon,
look for few to scattered cumulus and dewpoints to mix out into the
low/mid 40s, keeping humidity levels in the comfortable range. Plan
on another mild and mostly clear night as readings fall into the mid
50s by early Monday morning.

Upper level ridging builds further on Monday across southeast US
into the lower Ohio Valley, which will act to hold a frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary lies up from southern Michigan
into central Illinois and Missouri. Will continue dry forecast and
given a bump in 850 mb temperatures, trended highs up a couple
degrees. Bias-corrected guidance puts the entire forecast area in
the low 80s and the typical warm, urban locations in the mid 80s.
South afternoon breezes around 10 mph can be expected under mostly
to partly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

A REX block with an upper level ridge centered over the Midwest
still looks to control the mid week forecast.  With upper level
ridging in place solidly over the Ohio Valley Tues-Thurs, have gone
with a dry forecast.  One could argue a dry forecast for Friday also
as ridging still looks pretty strong over the area with a slower
trend noted in forecast models of the ridge break down.  However,
for consistency sake, will keep isld chances for convection Friday.

The GFS is the most optimistic with QPF Tues-Thu generating
afternoon precip each day.  Think that the GFS QPF is overdone
overall, but it might have the right idea of perhaps an isld cell or
two bubbling up during the late afternoon or evening hours at or
just beyond peak heating.  However, at this point, will stick with a
dry multi-model consensus for Tues-Thu.

The upper level ridge does start to break down by the end of the
week as the western coast upper trough makes progress inland.  Upper
level shortwave activity will pass through the Ohio Valley as this
occurs resulting in better precip chances by the weekend (20-30%).

Temperatures will be above normal in the long term period with a
warming trend noted in the last few model runs for the end of the
long term period.  Highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s are forecast for
Tue/Wed with highs solidly in the low to mid 80s for Thurs-Sat.  Low
temps will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1235 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Plan on VFR conditions through the period as high pressure pushes
off to the southeast. High clouds will move over SDF/LEX/BWG early
this morning, then look for scattered cu with bases around 5 kft
this afternoon. Light/variable winds this morning are expected to be
southerly to southwesterly between 5 and 10 kft by afternoon and
tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 030443
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1243 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 928 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Winds are light this evening with a few to scattered clouds around
the area. Taking a look at the model guidance this evening, still
think there is the potential for some patchy fog to form
tomorrow morning as more moist air begins to advect into the region.
However, am not sure how widespread it will be, so the wording was
limited to "patchy" in the forecast. Otherwise, just some minor
adjustments were made to the temp/dewpoint grids this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Nice warmup to continue as high pressure over the region will shift
east of it overnight and settle over the Carolina coast by Sunday
night. Southerly winds will bring that warmer air, with highs
getting to around 80 in our warm spots and lows generally in the
50s. The only concern for tonight would be chance for fog. With the
high to our east, we will see a little more moisture in the region.
We did see a few patches of fog this morning and with a little more
moisture we could see better coverage by daybreak Sunday. Have put
in patchy to areas of fog for this reason.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

The long term period continues to look generally quiet throughout
the period.  The long term global guidance continues to be in good
agreement with a deep western US trough developing with ridging
developing just east of the Mid-MS valley.  The deterministic runs
along with quite a few of the ensembles continue to show the
development of a tropical system off the US SE coast by midweek.
Should this occur, it appears that a Rex block will be in place
across the eastern US which would generally lock the upper level
pattern in place.  In this particular case, much of the Ohio Valley
would remain in a broad southwesterly flow pattern throughout the
period.

The previous forecast had this well in hand and only some minor
adjustments were needed.  In terms of sensible weather, a stalled
out frontal boundary will likely remain to the north of the region
early in the week and eventually wash out as stronger ridging
develops in response to the deepening western US trough and the
possible tropical development off the SE US coast.  This will lead
to a continued warming and moistening of the column throughout the
week.  By Thu/Fri the pattern may start to break down slightly with
the ridge axis drifting to our east.  Increasing afternoon
instability may lead to diurnally driven convection mainly in the
afternoon/evening hours.  However, still will keep PoPs in the
isolated range closer to climatology. By the weekend, the pattern
should break down even more allowing the western trough to come
eastward bringing our next chance of precipitation the region.

As for temperatures, we expect to see above normal temperatures for
the period.  Afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s are likely
with overnight lows cooling into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1235 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Plan on VFR conditions through the period as high pressure pushes
off to the southeast. High clouds will move over SDF/LEX/BWG early
this morning, then look for scattered cu with bases around 5 kft
this afternoon. Light/variable winds this morning are expected to be
southerly to southwesterly between 5 and 10 kft by afternoon and
tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 030443
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1243 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 928 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Winds are light this evening with a few to scattered clouds around
the area. Taking a look at the model guidance this evening, still
think there is the potential for some patchy fog to form
tomorrow morning as more moist air begins to advect into the region.
However, am not sure how widespread it will be, so the wording was
limited to "patchy" in the forecast. Otherwise, just some minor
adjustments were made to the temp/dewpoint grids this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Nice warmup to continue as high pressure over the region will shift
east of it overnight and settle over the Carolina coast by Sunday
night. Southerly winds will bring that warmer air, with highs
getting to around 80 in our warm spots and lows generally in the
50s. The only concern for tonight would be chance for fog. With the
high to our east, we will see a little more moisture in the region.
We did see a few patches of fog this morning and with a little more
moisture we could see better coverage by daybreak Sunday. Have put
in patchy to areas of fog for this reason.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

The long term period continues to look generally quiet throughout
the period.  The long term global guidance continues to be in good
agreement with a deep western US trough developing with ridging
developing just east of the Mid-MS valley.  The deterministic runs
along with quite a few of the ensembles continue to show the
development of a tropical system off the US SE coast by midweek.
Should this occur, it appears that a Rex block will be in place
across the eastern US which would generally lock the upper level
pattern in place.  In this particular case, much of the Ohio Valley
would remain in a broad southwesterly flow pattern throughout the
period.

The previous forecast had this well in hand and only some minor
adjustments were needed.  In terms of sensible weather, a stalled
out frontal boundary will likely remain to the north of the region
early in the week and eventually wash out as stronger ridging
develops in response to the deepening western US trough and the
possible tropical development off the SE US coast.  This will lead
to a continued warming and moistening of the column throughout the
week.  By Thu/Fri the pattern may start to break down slightly with
the ridge axis drifting to our east.  Increasing afternoon
instability may lead to diurnally driven convection mainly in the
afternoon/evening hours.  However, still will keep PoPs in the
isolated range closer to climatology. By the weekend, the pattern
should break down even more allowing the western trough to come
eastward bringing our next chance of precipitation the region.

As for temperatures, we expect to see above normal temperatures for
the period.  Afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s are likely
with overnight lows cooling into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1235 AM EDT Sun May 3 2015

Plan on VFR conditions through the period as high pressure pushes
off to the southeast. High clouds will move over SDF/LEX/BWG early
this morning, then look for scattered cu with bases around 5 kft
this afternoon. Light/variable winds this morning are expected to be
southerly to southwesterly between 5 and 10 kft by afternoon and
tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......ZT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 030129
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
929 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 928 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Winds are light this evening with a few to scattered clouds around
the area. Taking a look at the model guidance this evening, still
think there is the potential for some patchy fog to form
tomorrow morning as more moist air begins to advect into the region.
However, am not sure how widespread it will be, so the wording was
limited to "patchy" in the forecast. Otherwise, just some minor
adjustments were made to the temp/dewpoint grids this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Nice warmup to continue as high pressure over the region will shift
east of it overnight and settle over the Carolina coast by Sunday
night. Southerly winds will bring that warmer air, with highs
getting to around 80 in our warm spots and lows generally in the
50s. The only concern for tonight would be chance for fog. With the
high to our east, we will see a little more moisture in the region.
We did see a few patches of fog this morning and with a little more
moisture we could see better coverage by daybreak Sunday. Have put
in patchy to areas of fog for this reason.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

The long term period continues to look generally quiet throughout
the period.  The long term global guidance continues to be in good
agreement with a deep western US trough developing with ridging
developing just east of the Mid-MS valley.  The deterministic runs
along with quite a few of the ensembles continue to show the
development of a tropical system off the US SE coast by midweek.
Should this occur, it appears that a Rex block will be in place
across the eastern US which would generally lock the upper level
pattern in place.  In this particular case, much of the Ohio Valley
would remain in a broad southwesterly flow pattern throughout the
period.

The previous forecast had this well in hand and only some minor
adjustments were needed.  In terms of sensible weather, a stalled
out frontal boundary will likely remain to the north of the region
early in the week and eventually wash out as stronger ridging
develops in response to the deepening western US trough and the
possible tropical development off the SE US coast.  This will lead
to a continued warming and moistening of the column throughout the
week.  By Thu/Fri the pattern may start to break down slightly with
the ridge axis drifting to our east.  Increasing afternoon
instability may lead to diurnally driven convection mainly in the
afternoon/evening hours.  However, still will keep PoPs in the
isolated range closer to climatology. By the weekend, the pattern
should break down even more allowing the western trough to come
eastward bringing our next chance of precipitation the region.

As for temperatures, we expect to see above normal temperatures for
the period.  Afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s are likely
with overnight lows cooling into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 650 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
over the area will shift eastward through tomorrow. Winds will be
light and variable to calm overnight, shifting to southerly
tomorrow. Some high clouds will be possible overnight with scattered
cu developing tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 030129
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
929 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 928 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Winds are light this evening with a few to scattered clouds around
the area. Taking a look at the model guidance this evening, still
think there is the potential for some patchy fog to form
tomorrow morning as more moist air begins to advect into the region.
However, am not sure how widespread it will be, so the wording was
limited to "patchy" in the forecast. Otherwise, just some minor
adjustments were made to the temp/dewpoint grids this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Nice warmup to continue as high pressure over the region will shift
east of it overnight and settle over the Carolina coast by Sunday
night. Southerly winds will bring that warmer air, with highs
getting to around 80 in our warm spots and lows generally in the
50s. The only concern for tonight would be chance for fog. With the
high to our east, we will see a little more moisture in the region.
We did see a few patches of fog this morning and with a little more
moisture we could see better coverage by daybreak Sunday. Have put
in patchy to areas of fog for this reason.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

The long term period continues to look generally quiet throughout
the period.  The long term global guidance continues to be in good
agreement with a deep western US trough developing with ridging
developing just east of the Mid-MS valley.  The deterministic runs
along with quite a few of the ensembles continue to show the
development of a tropical system off the US SE coast by midweek.
Should this occur, it appears that a Rex block will be in place
across the eastern US which would generally lock the upper level
pattern in place.  In this particular case, much of the Ohio Valley
would remain in a broad southwesterly flow pattern throughout the
period.

The previous forecast had this well in hand and only some minor
adjustments were needed.  In terms of sensible weather, a stalled
out frontal boundary will likely remain to the north of the region
early in the week and eventually wash out as stronger ridging
develops in response to the deepening western US trough and the
possible tropical development off the SE US coast.  This will lead
to a continued warming and moistening of the column throughout the
week.  By Thu/Fri the pattern may start to break down slightly with
the ridge axis drifting to our east.  Increasing afternoon
instability may lead to diurnally driven convection mainly in the
afternoon/evening hours.  However, still will keep PoPs in the
isolated range closer to climatology. By the weekend, the pattern
should break down even more allowing the western trough to come
eastward bringing our next chance of precipitation the region.

As for temperatures, we expect to see above normal temperatures for
the period.  Afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s are likely
with overnight lows cooling into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 650 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
over the area will shift eastward through tomorrow. Winds will be
light and variable to calm overnight, shifting to southerly
tomorrow. Some high clouds will be possible overnight with scattered
cu developing tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 030129
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
929 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 928 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Winds are light this evening with a few to scattered clouds around
the area. Taking a look at the model guidance this evening, still
think there is the potential for some patchy fog to form
tomorrow morning as more moist air begins to advect into the region.
However, am not sure how widespread it will be, so the wording was
limited to "patchy" in the forecast. Otherwise, just some minor
adjustments were made to the temp/dewpoint grids this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Nice warmup to continue as high pressure over the region will shift
east of it overnight and settle over the Carolina coast by Sunday
night. Southerly winds will bring that warmer air, with highs
getting to around 80 in our warm spots and lows generally in the
50s. The only concern for tonight would be chance for fog. With the
high to our east, we will see a little more moisture in the region.
We did see a few patches of fog this morning and with a little more
moisture we could see better coverage by daybreak Sunday. Have put
in patchy to areas of fog for this reason.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

The long term period continues to look generally quiet throughout
the period.  The long term global guidance continues to be in good
agreement with a deep western US trough developing with ridging
developing just east of the Mid-MS valley.  The deterministic runs
along with quite a few of the ensembles continue to show the
development of a tropical system off the US SE coast by midweek.
Should this occur, it appears that a Rex block will be in place
across the eastern US which would generally lock the upper level
pattern in place.  In this particular case, much of the Ohio Valley
would remain in a broad southwesterly flow pattern throughout the
period.

The previous forecast had this well in hand and only some minor
adjustments were needed.  In terms of sensible weather, a stalled
out frontal boundary will likely remain to the north of the region
early in the week and eventually wash out as stronger ridging
develops in response to the deepening western US trough and the
possible tropical development off the SE US coast.  This will lead
to a continued warming and moistening of the column throughout the
week.  By Thu/Fri the pattern may start to break down slightly with
the ridge axis drifting to our east.  Increasing afternoon
instability may lead to diurnally driven convection mainly in the
afternoon/evening hours.  However, still will keep PoPs in the
isolated range closer to climatology. By the weekend, the pattern
should break down even more allowing the western trough to come
eastward bringing our next chance of precipitation the region.

As for temperatures, we expect to see above normal temperatures for
the period.  Afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s are likely
with overnight lows cooling into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 650 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
over the area will shift eastward through tomorrow. Winds will be
light and variable to calm overnight, shifting to southerly
tomorrow. Some high clouds will be possible overnight with scattered
cu developing tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 030129
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
929 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 928 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Winds are light this evening with a few to scattered clouds around
the area. Taking a look at the model guidance this evening, still
think there is the potential for some patchy fog to form
tomorrow morning as more moist air begins to advect into the region.
However, am not sure how widespread it will be, so the wording was
limited to "patchy" in the forecast. Otherwise, just some minor
adjustments were made to the temp/dewpoint grids this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Nice warmup to continue as high pressure over the region will shift
east of it overnight and settle over the Carolina coast by Sunday
night. Southerly winds will bring that warmer air, with highs
getting to around 80 in our warm spots and lows generally in the
50s. The only concern for tonight would be chance for fog. With the
high to our east, we will see a little more moisture in the region.
We did see a few patches of fog this morning and with a little more
moisture we could see better coverage by daybreak Sunday. Have put
in patchy to areas of fog for this reason.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

The long term period continues to look generally quiet throughout
the period.  The long term global guidance continues to be in good
agreement with a deep western US trough developing with ridging
developing just east of the Mid-MS valley.  The deterministic runs
along with quite a few of the ensembles continue to show the
development of a tropical system off the US SE coast by midweek.
Should this occur, it appears that a Rex block will be in place
across the eastern US which would generally lock the upper level
pattern in place.  In this particular case, much of the Ohio Valley
would remain in a broad southwesterly flow pattern throughout the
period.

The previous forecast had this well in hand and only some minor
adjustments were needed.  In terms of sensible weather, a stalled
out frontal boundary will likely remain to the north of the region
early in the week and eventually wash out as stronger ridging
develops in response to the deepening western US trough and the
possible tropical development off the SE US coast.  This will lead
to a continued warming and moistening of the column throughout the
week.  By Thu/Fri the pattern may start to break down slightly with
the ridge axis drifting to our east.  Increasing afternoon
instability may lead to diurnally driven convection mainly in the
afternoon/evening hours.  However, still will keep PoPs in the
isolated range closer to climatology. By the weekend, the pattern
should break down even more allowing the western trough to come
eastward bringing our next chance of precipitation the region.

As for temperatures, we expect to see above normal temperatures for
the period.  Afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s are likely
with overnight lows cooling into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 650 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
over the area will shift eastward through tomorrow. Winds will be
light and variable to calm overnight, shifting to southerly
tomorrow. Some high clouds will be possible overnight with scattered
cu developing tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 022252
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Nice warmup to continue as high pressure over the region will shift
east of it overnight and settle over the Carolina coast by Sunday
night. Southerly winds will bring that warmer air, with highs
getting to around 80 in our warm spots and lows generally in the
50s. The only concern for tonight would be chance for fog. With the
high to our east, we will see a little more moisture in the region.
We did see a few patches of fog this morning and with a little more
moisture we could see better coverage by daybreak Sunday. Have put
in patchy to areas of fog for this reason.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

The long term period continues to look generally quiet throughout
the period.  The long term global guidance continues to be in good
agreement with a deep western US trough developing with ridging
developing just east of the Mid-MS valley.  The deterministic runs
along with quite a few of the ensembles continue to show the
development of a tropical system off the US SE coast by midweek.
Should this occur, it appears that a Rex block will be in place
across the eastern US which would generally lock the upper level
pattern in place.  In this particular case, much of the Ohio Valley
would remain in a broad southwesterly flow pattern throughout the
period.

The previous forecast had this well in hand and only some minor
adjustments were needed.  In terms of sensible weather, a stalled
out frontal boundary will likely remain to the north of the region
early in the week and eventually wash out as stronger ridging
develops in response to the deepening western US trough and the
possible tropical development off the SE US coast.  This will lead
to a continued warming and moistening of the column throughout the
week.  By Thu/Fri the pattern may start to break down slightly with
the ridge axis drifting to our east.  Increasing afternoon
instability may lead to diurnally driven convection mainly in the
afternoon/evening hours.  However, still will keep PoPs in the
isolated range closer to climatology. By the weekend, the pattern
should break down even more allowing the western trough to come
eastward bringing our next chance of precipitation the region.

As for temperatures, we expect to see above normal temperatures for
the period.  Afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s are likely
with overnight lows cooling into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 650 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
over the area will shift eastward through tomorrow. Winds will be
light and variable to calm overnight, shifting to southerly
tomorrow. Some high clouds will be possible overnight with scattered
cu developing tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 022252
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Nice warmup to continue as high pressure over the region will shift
east of it overnight and settle over the Carolina coast by Sunday
night. Southerly winds will bring that warmer air, with highs
getting to around 80 in our warm spots and lows generally in the
50s. The only concern for tonight would be chance for fog. With the
high to our east, we will see a little more moisture in the region.
We did see a few patches of fog this morning and with a little more
moisture we could see better coverage by daybreak Sunday. Have put
in patchy to areas of fog for this reason.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

The long term period continues to look generally quiet throughout
the period.  The long term global guidance continues to be in good
agreement with a deep western US trough developing with ridging
developing just east of the Mid-MS valley.  The deterministic runs
along with quite a few of the ensembles continue to show the
development of a tropical system off the US SE coast by midweek.
Should this occur, it appears that a Rex block will be in place
across the eastern US which would generally lock the upper level
pattern in place.  In this particular case, much of the Ohio Valley
would remain in a broad southwesterly flow pattern throughout the
period.

The previous forecast had this well in hand and only some minor
adjustments were needed.  In terms of sensible weather, a stalled
out frontal boundary will likely remain to the north of the region
early in the week and eventually wash out as stronger ridging
develops in response to the deepening western US trough and the
possible tropical development off the SE US coast.  This will lead
to a continued warming and moistening of the column throughout the
week.  By Thu/Fri the pattern may start to break down slightly with
the ridge axis drifting to our east.  Increasing afternoon
instability may lead to diurnally driven convection mainly in the
afternoon/evening hours.  However, still will keep PoPs in the
isolated range closer to climatology. By the weekend, the pattern
should break down even more allowing the western trough to come
eastward bringing our next chance of precipitation the region.

As for temperatures, we expect to see above normal temperatures for
the period.  Afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s are likely
with overnight lows cooling into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 650 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
over the area will shift eastward through tomorrow. Winds will be
light and variable to calm overnight, shifting to southerly
tomorrow. Some high clouds will be possible overnight with scattered
cu developing tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 022252
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Nice warmup to continue as high pressure over the region will shift
east of it overnight and settle over the Carolina coast by Sunday
night. Southerly winds will bring that warmer air, with highs
getting to around 80 in our warm spots and lows generally in the
50s. The only concern for tonight would be chance for fog. With the
high to our east, we will see a little more moisture in the region.
We did see a few patches of fog this morning and with a little more
moisture we could see better coverage by daybreak Sunday. Have put
in patchy to areas of fog for this reason.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

The long term period continues to look generally quiet throughout
the period.  The long term global guidance continues to be in good
agreement with a deep western US trough developing with ridging
developing just east of the Mid-MS valley.  The deterministic runs
along with quite a few of the ensembles continue to show the
development of a tropical system off the US SE coast by midweek.
Should this occur, it appears that a Rex block will be in place
across the eastern US which would generally lock the upper level
pattern in place.  In this particular case, much of the Ohio Valley
would remain in a broad southwesterly flow pattern throughout the
period.

The previous forecast had this well in hand and only some minor
adjustments were needed.  In terms of sensible weather, a stalled
out frontal boundary will likely remain to the north of the region
early in the week and eventually wash out as stronger ridging
develops in response to the deepening western US trough and the
possible tropical development off the SE US coast.  This will lead
to a continued warming and moistening of the column throughout the
week.  By Thu/Fri the pattern may start to break down slightly with
the ridge axis drifting to our east.  Increasing afternoon
instability may lead to diurnally driven convection mainly in the
afternoon/evening hours.  However, still will keep PoPs in the
isolated range closer to climatology. By the weekend, the pattern
should break down even more allowing the western trough to come
eastward bringing our next chance of precipitation the region.

As for temperatures, we expect to see above normal temperatures for
the period.  Afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s are likely
with overnight lows cooling into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 650 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
over the area will shift eastward through tomorrow. Winds will be
light and variable to calm overnight, shifting to southerly
tomorrow. Some high clouds will be possible overnight with scattered
cu developing tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 022252
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

Nice warmup to continue as high pressure over the region will shift
east of it overnight and settle over the Carolina coast by Sunday
night. Southerly winds will bring that warmer air, with highs
getting to around 80 in our warm spots and lows generally in the
50s. The only concern for tonight would be chance for fog. With the
high to our east, we will see a little more moisture in the region.
We did see a few patches of fog this morning and with a little more
moisture we could see better coverage by daybreak Sunday. Have put
in patchy to areas of fog for this reason.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

The long term period continues to look generally quiet throughout
the period.  The long term global guidance continues to be in good
agreement with a deep western US trough developing with ridging
developing just east of the Mid-MS valley.  The deterministic runs
along with quite a few of the ensembles continue to show the
development of a tropical system off the US SE coast by midweek.
Should this occur, it appears that a Rex block will be in place
across the eastern US which would generally lock the upper level
pattern in place.  In this particular case, much of the Ohio Valley
would remain in a broad southwesterly flow pattern throughout the
period.

The previous forecast had this well in hand and only some minor
adjustments were needed.  In terms of sensible weather, a stalled
out frontal boundary will likely remain to the north of the region
early in the week and eventually wash out as stronger ridging
develops in response to the deepening western US trough and the
possible tropical development off the SE US coast.  This will lead
to a continued warming and moistening of the column throughout the
week.  By Thu/Fri the pattern may start to break down slightly with
the ridge axis drifting to our east.  Increasing afternoon
instability may lead to diurnally driven convection mainly in the
afternoon/evening hours.  However, still will keep PoPs in the
isolated range closer to climatology. By the weekend, the pattern
should break down even more allowing the western trough to come
eastward bringing our next chance of precipitation the region.

As for temperatures, we expect to see above normal temperatures for
the period.  Afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s are likely
with overnight lows cooling into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 650 PM EDT Sat May 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
over the area will shift eastward through tomorrow. Winds will be
light and variable to calm overnight, shifting to southerly
tomorrow. Some high clouds will be possible overnight with scattered
cu developing tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER






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