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000
FXUS63 KLMK 301650
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1150 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1131 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Going to update forecast to remove PoP chances as snow flurry
activity has largely diminished across our region.  Skies are
expected to remain partly cloudy through the afternoon.  Afternoon
highs in the lower 30s in the north with mid-upper 30s down across
the south.  Some locations along the KY/TN border may hit 40 this
afternoon.

Issued at 905 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Thin band of snow showers and snow flurries will drop southward
through portions of central KY over the next few hours.  This band
will mainly affect areas east of I-65.  These snow showers will be
capable of briefly reducing visibilities and producing a dusting of
accumulation as they move through.  Temperatures remain in the
31-34 degree, thus isolated slick spots...mainly on bridges and
overpasses will be possible over the next hour or so.

Issued at 640 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Updated the forecast to focus more on isld to sct snow showers
moving south into our area this morning.  These snow showers could
produce a dusting of accumulation at best which might make roads
slippery.  The threat for black ice still exists too for locations
that drop below freezing this morning.  The Bluegrass mesonet
sites are reporting freezing temps as of 630am est.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Possible this Morning...

An upper level disturbance pushing south within the broad upper
trough over the area is forecast to maintain and perhaps enhance
very light precip occurring over the region this morning.  This
precip was in the form of a very light rain/drizzle or snow as of
8Z.  Expect this light mix to continue and transition over to mostly
isld-sct light snow showers over southern IN/northern KY/eastern KY
during the pre-dawn hours.  Locations that do get a light snow
shower this morning may see a dusting of accumulation.  This light
snow accumulation and wet road sfcs from light precip overnight
combined with temps falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s this
morning may cause some slick spots.  Road temps as of 8Z were
lagging behind sfc temps by about 2-4 degrees with most roadways
well above freezing in the mid to upper 30s early this morning.
This may help minimize travel issues this morning.  However, with
good CAA in place and the light precip expected to continue through
around sunrise, feel an SPS is in order to highlight possible slick
spots developing especially on bridges and overpasses.  There is a
potential that travel impacts may worsen especially if road temps
can fall below freezing over a wider area creating a more widespread
glaze on roadways.  If this happens, an Advy product may be needed.
Will monitor closely this morning.

Precipitation should end from west to east by mid morning with skies
becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  A good range of high temps
can be expected today with highs ranging throughout the 30s.  The
coolest locations should be southern Indiana and the Bluegrass, and
the warmest locations will be in the Bowling Green area and
southwest toward the TN border.

Sfc high pressure will settle over the region tonight bringing a
period of mostly clear skies and light or calm winds.  Temps should
fall into the mid teens to lower 20s with the coldest locations over
east central KY which will be better positioned within the colder
airmass.

Saturday clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching
storm system.  With southerly winds bringing in slightly warmer air,
temps should moderate into the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs on
Sat.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Across Parts of the Area Sunday...

The focus for the long term period is on the possible winter storm
across parts of the Ohio Valley beginning late Saturday night
through early Monday morning.

The 30.00z model guidance lowered our confidence as models
continue to waffle on the surface low track. The GFS/NAM shifted its
low track a hundred miles northward, bringing it through central
Kentucky Sunday evening. This greatly impacts the low level
temperatures and subsequent snow banding potential across northern
KY into southern Indiana. If this solution verified, only the far
north could see a period of accumulating snow. However, the GEM
swung the other direction with a much further south low track,
resulting in a colder solution and the band of accumulating snow
across Kentucky. The GEM has been unstable the past few days and at
this time has been considered an outlier. Finally, the ECMWF also
trended more north and warmer, coming in line with the GFS/NAM
warmer solution. Despite the 30.00z guidance agreeing somewhat,
confidence remains low due to this shift from the 29.12z guidance,
and previous runs that have waffled the past 3 days. It would be
nice to see some model to model continuity plus run to run
consistency before latching onto a particular storm track.

Current thinking is that precipitation will break out across
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio initially late Saturday night, mainly in
response to upper level lift from the right entrance jet and
northern stream energy. This would be mainly in the form of snow as
thermal profiles are below 0C. As the surface low takes shape and
moves closer to the area, we`ll see precipitation spread across the
entire area and at the same time, warmer air drawn northward will
transition precip to a mix or all rain depending on low level
temperatures. This is where the greatest uncertainty lies. To avoid
a huge shift from the previous forecast, will trend temperatures
slightly warmer, creeping the rain/snow line north /close to the
Louisville and Lexington metros/ but not quite as aggressive as the
30.00z guidance suggests. Hopefully the 30.12z guidance will
increase forecast confidence as the northern and southern stream
energy should be sampled by the upper air network.

At this time, parts of our southern Indiana locations stand the
greatest probability to see accumulating snow, though this
probability isn`t necessarily high. There is the potential for 1 to
3 inches of snow for areas from Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana.
The accumulating snow would fall from Sunday afternoon through the
early Monday morning hours. Some travel impacts here are possible.
All locations to the south have too much uncertainty to discuss
possible snowfall amounts at this time.

Days 4 - 7 Discussion:

In the wake of the weekend storm system, there`s a good consensus
that the upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes bringing an
unseasonably cold air mass into the Ohio Valley. If a healthy
snowpack is realized across portions of the area and to the north,
then Monday high temperatures may only top out in the upper teens
across southern Indiana to mid/upper 20s across southern Kentucky.
Combined with a brisk north wind, particularly Monday morning, and
wind chills may remain in the 0 to +10 range across the north. Our
best setup for strong radiational cooling conditions comes Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the Canadian high pressure slides
overhead. Model consensus puts lows in the lower to middle teens,
but again, a fresh snowpack could send readings well into the single
digits above zero. We`ll have to see how that plays out. Otherwise,
the surface high pushes to our east Tuesday bringing southerly to
southwesterly flow. We`ll begin to moderate some, but likely remain
below normal with highs in the 30s.

By midweek, another active southern stream system crosses the Gulf
coast and begins to lift northeast along the southeast US coast.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the track of this
system, potential phasing with northern stream energy and how far
northwest precipitation may spread back over the Ohio and TN
Valleys. Thermal profiles suggest this could fall as a wintry mix or
snow. Right snow, the 30.00z deterministic and ensembles suggest
this system stays to our southeast but it does bear watching since
it`s still 5 to 7 days out. For now, a model consensus of 20-30
percent POPs seems reasonable and highs/lows in the 30s/20s
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

A weak upper level disturbance is passing through the southern parts
of the forecast area late this morning.  This feature is expected to
continue southward through the afternoon hours.  For the afternoon,
we expect VFR conditions at the terminals with ceilings running
around FL035-040 AGL.  Surface winds will be out of the north at
10-12kts with some occasional gusts up to 15-16kts.  Winds will
subside late this afternoon and evening with skies/cigs remaining
VFR.  VFR cigs/vsbys are expected overnight with light and variable
winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301631
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1131 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1131 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Going to update forecast to remove PoP chances as snow flurry
activity has largely diminished across our region.  Skies are
expected to remain partly cloudy through the afternoon.  Afternoon
highs in the lower 30s in the north with mid-upper 30s down across
the south.  Some locations along the KY/TN border may hit 40 this
afternoon.

Issued at 905 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Thin band of snow showers and snow flurries will drop southward
through portions of central KY over the next few hours.  This band
will mainly affect areas east of I-65.  These snow showers will be
capable of briefly reducing visibilities and producing a dusting of
accumulation as they move through.  Temperatures remain in the
31-34 degree, thus isolated slick spots...mainly on bridges and
overpasses will be possible over the next hour or so.

Issued at 640 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Updated the forecast to focus more on isld to sct snow showers
moving south into our area this morning.  These snow showers could
produce a dusting of accumulation at best which might make roads
slippery.  The threat for black ice still exists too for locations
that drop below freezing this morning.  The Bluegrass mesonet
sites are reporting freezing temps as of 630am est.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Possible this Morning...

An upper level disturbance pushing south within the broad upper
trough over the area is forecast to maintain and perhaps enhance
very light precip occurring over the region this morning.  This
precip was in the form of a very light rain/drizzle or snow as of
8Z.  Expect this light mix to continue and transition over to mostly
isld-sct light snow showers over southern IN/northern KY/eastern KY
during the pre-dawn hours.  Locations that do get a light snow
shower this morning may see a dusting of accumulation.  This light
snow accumulation and wet road sfcs from light precip overnight
combined with temps falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s this
morning may cause some slick spots.  Road temps as of 8Z were
lagging behind sfc temps by about 2-4 degrees with most roadways
well above freezing in the mid to upper 30s early this morning.
This may help minimize travel issues this morning.  However, with
good CAA in place and the light precip expected to continue through
around sunrise, feel an SPS is in order to highlight possible slick
spots developing especially on bridges and overpasses.  There is a
potential that travel impacts may worsen especially if road temps
can fall below freezing over a wider area creating a more widespread
glaze on roadways.  If this happens, an Advy product may be needed.
Will monitor closely this morning.

Precipitation should end from west to east by mid morning with skies
becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  A good range of high temps
can be expected today with highs ranging throughout the 30s.  The
coolest locations should be southern Indiana and the Bluegrass, and
the warmest locations will be in the Bowling Green area and
southwest toward the TN border.

Sfc high pressure will settle over the region tonight bringing a
period of mostly clear skies and light or calm winds.  Temps should
fall into the mid teens to lower 20s with the coldest locations over
east central KY which will be better positioned within the colder
airmass.

Saturday clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching
storm system.  With southerly winds bringing in slightly warmer air,
temps should moderate into the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs on
Sat.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Across Parts of the Area Sunday...

The focus for the long term period is on the possible winter storm
across parts of the Ohio Valley beginning late Saturday night
through early Monday morning.

The 30.00z model guidance lowered our confidence as models
continue to waffle on the surface low track. The GFS/NAM shifted its
low track a hundred miles northward, bringing it through central
Kentucky Sunday evening. This greatly impacts the low level
temperatures and subsequent snow banding potential across northern
KY into southern Indiana. If this solution verified, only the far
north could see a period of accumulating snow. However, the GEM
swung the other direction with a much further south low track,
resulting in a colder solution and the band of accumulating snow
across Kentucky. The GEM has been unstable the past few days and at
this time has been considered an outlier. Finally, the ECMWF also
trended more north and warmer, coming in line with the GFS/NAM
warmer solution. Despite the 30.00z guidance agreeing somewhat,
confidence remains low due to this shift from the 29.12z guidance,
and previous runs that have waffled the past 3 days. It would be
nice to see some model to model continuity plus run to run
consistency before latching onto a particular storm track.

Current thinking is that precipitation will break out across
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio initially late Saturday night, mainly in
response to upper level lift from the right entrance jet and
northern stream energy. This would be mainly in the form of snow as
thermal profiles are below 0C. As the surface low takes shape and
moves closer to the area, we`ll see precipitation spread across the
entire area and at the same time, warmer air drawn northward will
transition precip to a mix or all rain depending on low level
temperatures. This is where the greatest uncertainty lies. To avoid
a huge shift from the previous forecast, will trend temperatures
slightly warmer, creeping the rain/snow line north /close to the
Louisville and Lexington metros/ but not quite as aggressive as the
30.00z guidance suggests. Hopefully the 30.12z guidance will
increase forecast confidence as the northern and southern stream
energy should be sampled by the upper air network.

At this time, parts of our southern Indiana locations stand the
greatest probability to see accumulating snow, though this
probability isn`t necessarily high. There is the potential for 1 to
3 inches of snow for areas from Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana.
The accumulating snow would fall from Sunday afternoon through the
early Monday morning hours. Some travel impacts here are possible.
All locations to the south have too much uncertainty to discuss
possible snowfall amounts at this time.

Days 4 - 7 Discussion:

In the wake of the weekend storm system, there`s a good consensus
that the upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes bringing an
unseasonably cold air mass into the Ohio Valley. If a healthy
snowpack is realized across portions of the area and to the north,
then Monday high temperatures may only top out in the upper teens
across southern Indiana to mid/upper 20s across southern Kentucky.
Combined with a brisk north wind, particularly Monday morning, and
wind chills may remain in the 0 to +10 range across the north. Our
best setup for strong radiational cooling conditions comes Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the Canadian high pressure slides
overhead. Model consensus puts lows in the lower to middle teens,
but again, a fresh snowpack could send readings well into the single
digits above zero. We`ll have to see how that plays out. Otherwise,
the surface high pushes to our east Tuesday bringing southerly to
southwesterly flow. We`ll begin to moderate some, but likely remain
below normal with highs in the 30s.

By midweek, another active southern stream system crosses the Gulf
coast and begins to lift northeast along the southeast US coast.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the track of this
system, potential phasing with northern stream energy and how far
northwest precipitation may spread back over the Ohio and TN
Valleys. Thermal profiles suggest this could fall as a wintry mix or
snow. Right snow, the 30.00z deterministic and ensembles suggest
this system stays to our southeast but it does bear watching since
it`s still 5 to 7 days out. For now, a model consensus of 20-30
percent POPs seems reasonable and highs/lows in the 30s/20s
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

An upper level disturbance in NW flow will keep light patches of
precipitation going in the area through around mid morning.
Precipitation will likely remain in the form of light snow at
SDF/LEX through 14-15Z before diminishing.  As temps fall below
freezing around sunrise or just after sunrise, some slick spots on
runways could develop.  MVFR conditions with cigs above 2 kft will
affect the TAF sites through mid morning as well.  Flight conditions
will improve after sunrise with the TAF sites returning to VFR by
mid to late morning. Winds, gusty this morning, will remain out of
the NW-N for much of the day and then becoming light easterly this
evening as sfc high pressure moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301631
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1131 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1131 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Going to update forecast to remove PoP chances as snow flurry
activity has largely diminished across our region.  Skies are
expected to remain partly cloudy through the afternoon.  Afternoon
highs in the lower 30s in the north with mid-upper 30s down across
the south.  Some locations along the KY/TN border may hit 40 this
afternoon.

Issued at 905 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Thin band of snow showers and snow flurries will drop southward
through portions of central KY over the next few hours.  This band
will mainly affect areas east of I-65.  These snow showers will be
capable of briefly reducing visibilities and producing a dusting of
accumulation as they move through.  Temperatures remain in the
31-34 degree, thus isolated slick spots...mainly on bridges and
overpasses will be possible over the next hour or so.

Issued at 640 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Updated the forecast to focus more on isld to sct snow showers
moving south into our area this morning.  These snow showers could
produce a dusting of accumulation at best which might make roads
slippery.  The threat for black ice still exists too for locations
that drop below freezing this morning.  The Bluegrass mesonet
sites are reporting freezing temps as of 630am est.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Possible this Morning...

An upper level disturbance pushing south within the broad upper
trough over the area is forecast to maintain and perhaps enhance
very light precip occurring over the region this morning.  This
precip was in the form of a very light rain/drizzle or snow as of
8Z.  Expect this light mix to continue and transition over to mostly
isld-sct light snow showers over southern IN/northern KY/eastern KY
during the pre-dawn hours.  Locations that do get a light snow
shower this morning may see a dusting of accumulation.  This light
snow accumulation and wet road sfcs from light precip overnight
combined with temps falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s this
morning may cause some slick spots.  Road temps as of 8Z were
lagging behind sfc temps by about 2-4 degrees with most roadways
well above freezing in the mid to upper 30s early this morning.
This may help minimize travel issues this morning.  However, with
good CAA in place and the light precip expected to continue through
around sunrise, feel an SPS is in order to highlight possible slick
spots developing especially on bridges and overpasses.  There is a
potential that travel impacts may worsen especially if road temps
can fall below freezing over a wider area creating a more widespread
glaze on roadways.  If this happens, an Advy product may be needed.
Will monitor closely this morning.

Precipitation should end from west to east by mid morning with skies
becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  A good range of high temps
can be expected today with highs ranging throughout the 30s.  The
coolest locations should be southern Indiana and the Bluegrass, and
the warmest locations will be in the Bowling Green area and
southwest toward the TN border.

Sfc high pressure will settle over the region tonight bringing a
period of mostly clear skies and light or calm winds.  Temps should
fall into the mid teens to lower 20s with the coldest locations over
east central KY which will be better positioned within the colder
airmass.

Saturday clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching
storm system.  With southerly winds bringing in slightly warmer air,
temps should moderate into the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs on
Sat.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Across Parts of the Area Sunday...

The focus for the long term period is on the possible winter storm
across parts of the Ohio Valley beginning late Saturday night
through early Monday morning.

The 30.00z model guidance lowered our confidence as models
continue to waffle on the surface low track. The GFS/NAM shifted its
low track a hundred miles northward, bringing it through central
Kentucky Sunday evening. This greatly impacts the low level
temperatures and subsequent snow banding potential across northern
KY into southern Indiana. If this solution verified, only the far
north could see a period of accumulating snow. However, the GEM
swung the other direction with a much further south low track,
resulting in a colder solution and the band of accumulating snow
across Kentucky. The GEM has been unstable the past few days and at
this time has been considered an outlier. Finally, the ECMWF also
trended more north and warmer, coming in line with the GFS/NAM
warmer solution. Despite the 30.00z guidance agreeing somewhat,
confidence remains low due to this shift from the 29.12z guidance,
and previous runs that have waffled the past 3 days. It would be
nice to see some model to model continuity plus run to run
consistency before latching onto a particular storm track.

Current thinking is that precipitation will break out across
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio initially late Saturday night, mainly in
response to upper level lift from the right entrance jet and
northern stream energy. This would be mainly in the form of snow as
thermal profiles are below 0C. As the surface low takes shape and
moves closer to the area, we`ll see precipitation spread across the
entire area and at the same time, warmer air drawn northward will
transition precip to a mix or all rain depending on low level
temperatures. This is where the greatest uncertainty lies. To avoid
a huge shift from the previous forecast, will trend temperatures
slightly warmer, creeping the rain/snow line north /close to the
Louisville and Lexington metros/ but not quite as aggressive as the
30.00z guidance suggests. Hopefully the 30.12z guidance will
increase forecast confidence as the northern and southern stream
energy should be sampled by the upper air network.

At this time, parts of our southern Indiana locations stand the
greatest probability to see accumulating snow, though this
probability isn`t necessarily high. There is the potential for 1 to
3 inches of snow for areas from Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana.
The accumulating snow would fall from Sunday afternoon through the
early Monday morning hours. Some travel impacts here are possible.
All locations to the south have too much uncertainty to discuss
possible snowfall amounts at this time.

Days 4 - 7 Discussion:

In the wake of the weekend storm system, there`s a good consensus
that the upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes bringing an
unseasonably cold air mass into the Ohio Valley. If a healthy
snowpack is realized across portions of the area and to the north,
then Monday high temperatures may only top out in the upper teens
across southern Indiana to mid/upper 20s across southern Kentucky.
Combined with a brisk north wind, particularly Monday morning, and
wind chills may remain in the 0 to +10 range across the north. Our
best setup for strong radiational cooling conditions comes Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the Canadian high pressure slides
overhead. Model consensus puts lows in the lower to middle teens,
but again, a fresh snowpack could send readings well into the single
digits above zero. We`ll have to see how that plays out. Otherwise,
the surface high pushes to our east Tuesday bringing southerly to
southwesterly flow. We`ll begin to moderate some, but likely remain
below normal with highs in the 30s.

By midweek, another active southern stream system crosses the Gulf
coast and begins to lift northeast along the southeast US coast.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the track of this
system, potential phasing with northern stream energy and how far
northwest precipitation may spread back over the Ohio and TN
Valleys. Thermal profiles suggest this could fall as a wintry mix or
snow. Right snow, the 30.00z deterministic and ensembles suggest
this system stays to our southeast but it does bear watching since
it`s still 5 to 7 days out. For now, a model consensus of 20-30
percent POPs seems reasonable and highs/lows in the 30s/20s
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

An upper level disturbance in NW flow will keep light patches of
precipitation going in the area through around mid morning.
Precipitation will likely remain in the form of light snow at
SDF/LEX through 14-15Z before diminishing.  As temps fall below
freezing around sunrise or just after sunrise, some slick spots on
runways could develop.  MVFR conditions with cigs above 2 kft will
affect the TAF sites through mid morning as well.  Flight conditions
will improve after sunrise with the TAF sites returning to VFR by
mid to late morning. Winds, gusty this morning, will remain out of
the NW-N for much of the day and then becoming light easterly this
evening as sfc high pressure moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301406
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
906 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Thin band of snow showers and snow flurries will drop southward
through portions of central KY over the next few hours.  This band
will mainly affect areas east of I-65.  These snow showers will be
capable of briefly reducing visibilities and producing a dusting of
accumulation as they move through.  Temperatures remain in the
31-34 degree, thus isolated slick spots...mainly on bridges and
overpasses will be possible over the next hour or so.

Issued at 640 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Updated the forecast to focus more on isld to sct snow showers
moving south into our area this morning.  These snow showers could
produce a dusting of accumulation at best which might make roads
slippery.  The threat for black ice still exists too for locations
that drop below freezing this morning.  The Bluegrass mesonet
sites are reporting freezing temps as of 630am est.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Possible this Morning...

An upper level disturbance pushing south within the broad upper
trough over the area is forecast to maintain and perhaps enhance
very light precip occurring over the region this morning.  This
precip was in the form of a very light rain/drizzle or snow as of
8Z.  Expect this light mix to continue and transition over to mostly
isld-sct light snow showers over southern IN/northern KY/eastern KY
during the pre-dawn hours.  Locations that do get a light snow
shower this morning may see a dusting of accumulation.  This light
snow accumulation and wet road sfcs from light precip overnight
combined with temps falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s this
morning may cause some slick spots.  Road temps as of 8Z were
lagging behind sfc temps by about 2-4 degrees with most roadways
well above freezing in the mid to upper 30s early this morning.
This may help minimize travel issues this morning.  However, with
good CAA in place and the light precip expected to continue through
around sunrise, feel an SPS is in order to highlight possible slick
spots developing especially on bridges and overpasses.  There is a
potential that travel impacts may worsen especially if road temps
can fall below freezing over a wider area creating a more widespread
glaze on roadways.  If this happens, an Advy product may be needed.
Will monitor closely this morning.

Precipitation should end from west to east by mid morning with skies
becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  A good range of high temps
can be expected today with highs ranging throughout the 30s.  The
coolest locations should be southern Indiana and the Bluegrass, and
the warmest locations will be in the Bowling Green area and
southwest toward the TN border.

Sfc high pressure will settle over the region tonight bringing a
period of mostly clear skies and light or calm winds.  Temps should
fall into the mid teens to lower 20s with the coldest locations over
east central KY which will be better positioned within the colder
airmass.

Saturday clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching
storm system.  With southerly winds bringing in slightly warmer air,
temps should moderate into the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs on
Sat.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Across Parts of the Area Sunday...

The focus for the long term period is on the possible winter storm
across parts of the Ohio Valley beginning late Saturday night
through early Monday morning.

The 30.00z model guidance lowered our confidence as models
continue to waffle on the surface low track. The GFS/NAM shifted its
low track a hundred miles northward, bringing it through central
Kentucky Sunday evening. This greatly impacts the low level
temperatures and subsequent snow banding potential across northern
KY into southern Indiana. If this solution verified, only the far
north could see a period of accumulating snow. However, the GEM
swung the other direction with a much further south low track,
resulting in a colder solution and the band of accumulating snow
across Kentucky. The GEM has been unstable the past few days and at
this time has been considered an outlier. Finally, the ECMWF also
trended more north and warmer, coming in line with the GFS/NAM
warmer solution. Despite the 30.00z guidance agreeing somewhat,
confidence remains low due to this shift from the 29.12z guidance,
and previous runs that have waffled the past 3 days. It would be
nice to see some model to model continuity plus run to run
consistency before latching onto a particular storm track.

Current thinking is that precipitation will break out across
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio initially late Saturday night, mainly in
response to upper level lift from the right entrance jet and
northern stream energy. This would be mainly in the form of snow as
thermal profiles are below 0C. As the surface low takes shape and
moves closer to the area, we`ll see precipitation spread across the
entire area and at the same time, warmer air drawn northward will
transition precip to a mix or all rain depending on low level
temperatures. This is where the greatest uncertainty lies. To avoid
a huge shift from the previous forecast, will trend temperatures
slightly warmer, creeping the rain/snow line north /close to the
Louisville and Lexington metros/ but not quite as aggressive as the
30.00z guidance suggests. Hopefully the 30.12z guidance will
increase forecast confidence as the northern and southern stream
energy should be sampled by the upper air network.

At this time, parts of our southern Indiana locations stand the
greatest probability to see accumulating snow, though this
probability isn`t necessarily high. There is the potential for 1 to
3 inches of snow for areas from Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana.
The accumulating snow would fall from Sunday afternoon through the
early Monday morning hours. Some travel impacts here are possible.
All locations to the south have too much uncertainty to discuss
possible snowfall amounts at this time.

Days 4 - 7 Discussion:

In the wake of the weekend storm system, there`s a good consensus
that the upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes bringing an
unseasonably cold air mass into the Ohio Valley. If a healthy
snowpack is realized across portions of the area and to the north,
then Monday high temperatures may only top out in the upper teens
across southern Indiana to mid/upper 20s across southern Kentucky.
Combined with a brisk north wind, particularly Monday morning, and
wind chills may remain in the 0 to +10 range across the north. Our
best setup for strong radiational cooling conditions comes Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the Canadian high pressure slides
overhead. Model consensus puts lows in the lower to middle teens,
but again, a fresh snowpack could send readings well into the single
digits above zero. We`ll have to see how that plays out. Otherwise,
the surface high pushes to our east Tuesday bringing southerly to
southwesterly flow. We`ll begin to moderate some, but likely remain
below normal with highs in the 30s.

By midweek, another active southern stream system crosses the Gulf
coast and begins to lift northeast along the southeast US coast.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the track of this
system, potential phasing with northern stream energy and how far
northwest precipitation may spread back over the Ohio and TN
Valleys. Thermal profiles suggest this could fall as a wintry mix or
snow. Right snow, the 30.00z deterministic and ensembles suggest
this system stays to our southeast but it does bear watching since
it`s still 5 to 7 days out. For now, a model consensus of 20-30
percent POPs seems reasonable and highs/lows in the 30s/20s
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

An upper level disturbance in NW flow will keep light patches of
precipitation going in the area through around mid morning.
Precipitation will likely remain in the form of light snow at
SDF/LEX through 14-15Z before diminishing.  As temps fall below
freezing around sunrise or just after sunrise, some slick spots on
runways could develop.  MVFR conditions with cigs above 2 kft will
affect the TAF sites through mid morning as well.  Flight conditions
will improve after sunrise with the TAF sites returning to VFR by
mid to late morning. Winds, gusty this morning, will remain out of
the NW-N for much of the day and then becoming light easterly this
evening as sfc high pressure moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301406
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
906 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Thin band of snow showers and snow flurries will drop southward
through portions of central KY over the next few hours.  This band
will mainly affect areas east of I-65.  These snow showers will be
capable of briefly reducing visibilities and producing a dusting of
accumulation as they move through.  Temperatures remain in the
31-34 degree, thus isolated slick spots...mainly on bridges and
overpasses will be possible over the next hour or so.

Issued at 640 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Updated the forecast to focus more on isld to sct snow showers
moving south into our area this morning.  These snow showers could
produce a dusting of accumulation at best which might make roads
slippery.  The threat for black ice still exists too for locations
that drop below freezing this morning.  The Bluegrass mesonet
sites are reporting freezing temps as of 630am est.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Possible this Morning...

An upper level disturbance pushing south within the broad upper
trough over the area is forecast to maintain and perhaps enhance
very light precip occurring over the region this morning.  This
precip was in the form of a very light rain/drizzle or snow as of
8Z.  Expect this light mix to continue and transition over to mostly
isld-sct light snow showers over southern IN/northern KY/eastern KY
during the pre-dawn hours.  Locations that do get a light snow
shower this morning may see a dusting of accumulation.  This light
snow accumulation and wet road sfcs from light precip overnight
combined with temps falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s this
morning may cause some slick spots.  Road temps as of 8Z were
lagging behind sfc temps by about 2-4 degrees with most roadways
well above freezing in the mid to upper 30s early this morning.
This may help minimize travel issues this morning.  However, with
good CAA in place and the light precip expected to continue through
around sunrise, feel an SPS is in order to highlight possible slick
spots developing especially on bridges and overpasses.  There is a
potential that travel impacts may worsen especially if road temps
can fall below freezing over a wider area creating a more widespread
glaze on roadways.  If this happens, an Advy product may be needed.
Will monitor closely this morning.

Precipitation should end from west to east by mid morning with skies
becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  A good range of high temps
can be expected today with highs ranging throughout the 30s.  The
coolest locations should be southern Indiana and the Bluegrass, and
the warmest locations will be in the Bowling Green area and
southwest toward the TN border.

Sfc high pressure will settle over the region tonight bringing a
period of mostly clear skies and light or calm winds.  Temps should
fall into the mid teens to lower 20s with the coldest locations over
east central KY which will be better positioned within the colder
airmass.

Saturday clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching
storm system.  With southerly winds bringing in slightly warmer air,
temps should moderate into the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs on
Sat.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Across Parts of the Area Sunday...

The focus for the long term period is on the possible winter storm
across parts of the Ohio Valley beginning late Saturday night
through early Monday morning.

The 30.00z model guidance lowered our confidence as models
continue to waffle on the surface low track. The GFS/NAM shifted its
low track a hundred miles northward, bringing it through central
Kentucky Sunday evening. This greatly impacts the low level
temperatures and subsequent snow banding potential across northern
KY into southern Indiana. If this solution verified, only the far
north could see a period of accumulating snow. However, the GEM
swung the other direction with a much further south low track,
resulting in a colder solution and the band of accumulating snow
across Kentucky. The GEM has been unstable the past few days and at
this time has been considered an outlier. Finally, the ECMWF also
trended more north and warmer, coming in line with the GFS/NAM
warmer solution. Despite the 30.00z guidance agreeing somewhat,
confidence remains low due to this shift from the 29.12z guidance,
and previous runs that have waffled the past 3 days. It would be
nice to see some model to model continuity plus run to run
consistency before latching onto a particular storm track.

Current thinking is that precipitation will break out across
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio initially late Saturday night, mainly in
response to upper level lift from the right entrance jet and
northern stream energy. This would be mainly in the form of snow as
thermal profiles are below 0C. As the surface low takes shape and
moves closer to the area, we`ll see precipitation spread across the
entire area and at the same time, warmer air drawn northward will
transition precip to a mix or all rain depending on low level
temperatures. This is where the greatest uncertainty lies. To avoid
a huge shift from the previous forecast, will trend temperatures
slightly warmer, creeping the rain/snow line north /close to the
Louisville and Lexington metros/ but not quite as aggressive as the
30.00z guidance suggests. Hopefully the 30.12z guidance will
increase forecast confidence as the northern and southern stream
energy should be sampled by the upper air network.

At this time, parts of our southern Indiana locations stand the
greatest probability to see accumulating snow, though this
probability isn`t necessarily high. There is the potential for 1 to
3 inches of snow for areas from Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana.
The accumulating snow would fall from Sunday afternoon through the
early Monday morning hours. Some travel impacts here are possible.
All locations to the south have too much uncertainty to discuss
possible snowfall amounts at this time.

Days 4 - 7 Discussion:

In the wake of the weekend storm system, there`s a good consensus
that the upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes bringing an
unseasonably cold air mass into the Ohio Valley. If a healthy
snowpack is realized across portions of the area and to the north,
then Monday high temperatures may only top out in the upper teens
across southern Indiana to mid/upper 20s across southern Kentucky.
Combined with a brisk north wind, particularly Monday morning, and
wind chills may remain in the 0 to +10 range across the north. Our
best setup for strong radiational cooling conditions comes Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the Canadian high pressure slides
overhead. Model consensus puts lows in the lower to middle teens,
but again, a fresh snowpack could send readings well into the single
digits above zero. We`ll have to see how that plays out. Otherwise,
the surface high pushes to our east Tuesday bringing southerly to
southwesterly flow. We`ll begin to moderate some, but likely remain
below normal with highs in the 30s.

By midweek, another active southern stream system crosses the Gulf
coast and begins to lift northeast along the southeast US coast.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the track of this
system, potential phasing with northern stream energy and how far
northwest precipitation may spread back over the Ohio and TN
Valleys. Thermal profiles suggest this could fall as a wintry mix or
snow. Right snow, the 30.00z deterministic and ensembles suggest
this system stays to our southeast but it does bear watching since
it`s still 5 to 7 days out. For now, a model consensus of 20-30
percent POPs seems reasonable and highs/lows in the 30s/20s
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

An upper level disturbance in NW flow will keep light patches of
precipitation going in the area through around mid morning.
Precipitation will likely remain in the form of light snow at
SDF/LEX through 14-15Z before diminishing.  As temps fall below
freezing around sunrise or just after sunrise, some slick spots on
runways could develop.  MVFR conditions with cigs above 2 kft will
affect the TAF sites through mid morning as well.  Flight conditions
will improve after sunrise with the TAF sites returning to VFR by
mid to late morning. Winds, gusty this morning, will remain out of
the NW-N for much of the day and then becoming light easterly this
evening as sfc high pressure moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301143
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
643 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 640 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Updated the forecast to focus more on isld to sct snow showers
moving south into our area this morning.  These snow showers could
produce a dusting of accumulation at best which might make roads
slippery.  The threat for black ice still exists too for locations
that drop below freezing this morning.  The Bluegrass mesonet
sites are reporting freezing temps as of 630am est.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Possible this Morning...

An upper level disturbance pushing south within the broad upper
trough over the area is forecast to maintain and perhaps enhance
very light precip occurring over the region this morning.  This
precip was in the form of a very light rain/drizzle or snow as of
8Z.  Expect this light mix to continue and transition over to mostly
isld-sct light snow showers over southern IN/northern KY/eastern KY
during the pre-dawn hours.  Locations that do get a light snow
shower this morning may see a dusting of accumulation.  This light
snow accumulation and wet road sfcs from light precip overnight
combined with temps falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s this
morning may cause some slick spots.  Road temps as of 8Z were
lagging behind sfc temps by about 2-4 degrees with most roadways
well above freezing in the mid to upper 30s early this morning.
This may help minimize travel issues this morning.  However, with
good CAA in place and the light precip expected to continue through
around sunrise, feel an SPS is in order to highlight possible slick
spots developing especially on bridges and overpasses.  There is a
potential that travel impacts may worsen especially if road temps
can fall below freezing over a wider area creating a more widespread
glaze on roadways.  If this happens, an Advy product may be needed.
Will monitor closely this morning.

Precipitation should end from west to east by mid morning with skies
becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  A good range of high temps
can be expected today with highs ranging throughout the 30s.  The
coolest locations should be southern Indiana and the Bluegrass, and
the warmest locations will be in the Bowling Green area and
southwest toward the TN border.

Sfc high pressure will settle over the region tonight bringing a
period of mostly clear skies and light or calm winds.  Temps should
fall into the mid teens to lower 20s with the coldest locations over
east central KY which will be better positioned within the colder
airmass.

Saturday clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching
storm system.  With southerly winds bringing in slightly warmer air,
temps should moderate into the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs on
Sat.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Across Parts of the Area Sunday...

The focus for the long term period is on the possible winter storm
across parts of the Ohio Valley beginning late Saturday night
through early Monday morning.

The 30.00z model guidance lowered our confidence as models
continue to waffle on the surface low track. The GFS/NAM shifted its
low track a hundred miles northward, bringing it through central
Kentucky Sunday evening. This greatly impacts the low level
temperatures and subsequent snow banding potential across northern
KY into southern Indiana. If this solution verified, only the far
north could see a period of accumulating snow. However, the GEM
swung the other direction with a much further south low track,
resulting in a colder solution and the band of accumulating snow
across Kentucky. The GEM has been unstable the past few days and at
this time has been considered an outlier. Finally, the ECMWF also
trended more north and warmer, coming in line with the GFS/NAM
warmer solution. Despite the 30.00z guidance agreeing somewhat,
confidence remains low due to this shift from the 29.12z guidance,
and previous runs that have waffled the past 3 days. It would be
nice to see some model to model continuity plus run to run
consistency before latching onto a particular storm track.

Current thinking is that precipitation will break out across
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio initially late Saturday night, mainly in
response to upper level lift from the right entrance jet and
northern stream energy. This would be mainly in the form of snow as
thermal profiles are below 0C. As the surface low takes shape and
moves closer to the area, we`ll see precipitation spread across the
entire area and at the same time, warmer air drawn northward will
transition precip to a mix or all rain depending on low level
temperatures. This is where the greatest uncertainty lies. To avoid
a huge shift from the previous forecast, will trend temperatures
slightly warmer, creeping the rain/snow line north /close to the
Louisville and Lexington metros/ but not quite as aggressive as the
30.00z guidance suggests. Hopefully the 30.12z guidance will
increase forecast confidence as the northern and southern stream
energy should be sampled by the upper air network.

At this time, parts of our southern Indiana locations stand the
greatest probability to see accumulating snow, though this
probability isn`t necessarily high. There is the potential for 1 to
3 inches of snow for areas from Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana.
The accumulating snow would fall from Sunday afternoon through the
early Monday morning hours. Some travel impacts here are possible.
All locations to the south have too much uncertainty to discuss
possible snowfall amounts at this time.

Days 4 - 7 Discussion:

In the wake of the weekend storm system, there`s a good consensus
that the upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes bringing an
unseasonably cold air mass into the Ohio Valley. If a healthy
snowpack is realized across portions of the area and to the north,
then Monday high temperatures may only top out in the upper teens
across southern Indiana to mid/upper 20s across southern Kentucky.
Combined with a brisk north wind, particularly Monday morning, and
wind chills may remain in the 0 to +10 range across the north. Our
best setup for strong radiational cooling conditions comes Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the Canadian high pressure slides
overhead. Model consensus puts lows in the lower to middle teens,
but again, a fresh snowpack could send readings well into the single
digits above zero. We`ll have to see how that plays out. Otherwise,
the surface high pushes to our east Tuesday bringing southerly to
southwesterly flow. We`ll begin to moderate some, but likely remain
below normal with highs in the 30s.

By midweek, another active southern stream system crosses the Gulf
coast and begins to lift northeast along the southeast US coast.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the track of this
system, potential phasing with northern stream energy and how far
northwest precipitation may spread back over the Ohio and TN
Valleys. Thermal profiles suggest this could fall as a wintry mix or
snow. Right snow, the 30.00z deterministic and ensembles suggest
this system stays to our southeast but it does bear watching since
it`s still 5 to 7 days out. For now, a model consensus of 20-30
percent POPs seems reasonable and highs/lows in the 30s/20s
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

An upper level disturbance in NW flow will keep light patches of
precipitation going in the area through around mid morning.
Precipitation will likely remain in the form of light snow at
SDF/LEX through 14-15Z before diminishing.  As temps fall below
freezing around sunrise or just after sunrise, some slick spots on
runways could develop.  MVFR conditions with cigs above 2 kft will
affect the TAF sites through mid morning as well.  Flight conditions
will improve after sunrise with the TAF sites returning to VFR by
mid to late morning. Winds, gusty this morning, will remain out of
the NW-N for much of the day and then becoming light easterly this
evening as sfc high pressure moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301143
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
643 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 640 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Updated the forecast to focus more on isld to sct snow showers
moving south into our area this morning.  These snow showers could
produce a dusting of accumulation at best which might make roads
slippery.  The threat for black ice still exists too for locations
that drop below freezing this morning.  The Bluegrass mesonet
sites are reporting freezing temps as of 630am est.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Possible this Morning...

An upper level disturbance pushing south within the broad upper
trough over the area is forecast to maintain and perhaps enhance
very light precip occurring over the region this morning.  This
precip was in the form of a very light rain/drizzle or snow as of
8Z.  Expect this light mix to continue and transition over to mostly
isld-sct light snow showers over southern IN/northern KY/eastern KY
during the pre-dawn hours.  Locations that do get a light snow
shower this morning may see a dusting of accumulation.  This light
snow accumulation and wet road sfcs from light precip overnight
combined with temps falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s this
morning may cause some slick spots.  Road temps as of 8Z were
lagging behind sfc temps by about 2-4 degrees with most roadways
well above freezing in the mid to upper 30s early this morning.
This may help minimize travel issues this morning.  However, with
good CAA in place and the light precip expected to continue through
around sunrise, feel an SPS is in order to highlight possible slick
spots developing especially on bridges and overpasses.  There is a
potential that travel impacts may worsen especially if road temps
can fall below freezing over a wider area creating a more widespread
glaze on roadways.  If this happens, an Advy product may be needed.
Will monitor closely this morning.

Precipitation should end from west to east by mid morning with skies
becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  A good range of high temps
can be expected today with highs ranging throughout the 30s.  The
coolest locations should be southern Indiana and the Bluegrass, and
the warmest locations will be in the Bowling Green area and
southwest toward the TN border.

Sfc high pressure will settle over the region tonight bringing a
period of mostly clear skies and light or calm winds.  Temps should
fall into the mid teens to lower 20s with the coldest locations over
east central KY which will be better positioned within the colder
airmass.

Saturday clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching
storm system.  With southerly winds bringing in slightly warmer air,
temps should moderate into the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs on
Sat.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Across Parts of the Area Sunday...

The focus for the long term period is on the possible winter storm
across parts of the Ohio Valley beginning late Saturday night
through early Monday morning.

The 30.00z model guidance lowered our confidence as models
continue to waffle on the surface low track. The GFS/NAM shifted its
low track a hundred miles northward, bringing it through central
Kentucky Sunday evening. This greatly impacts the low level
temperatures and subsequent snow banding potential across northern
KY into southern Indiana. If this solution verified, only the far
north could see a period of accumulating snow. However, the GEM
swung the other direction with a much further south low track,
resulting in a colder solution and the band of accumulating snow
across Kentucky. The GEM has been unstable the past few days and at
this time has been considered an outlier. Finally, the ECMWF also
trended more north and warmer, coming in line with the GFS/NAM
warmer solution. Despite the 30.00z guidance agreeing somewhat,
confidence remains low due to this shift from the 29.12z guidance,
and previous runs that have waffled the past 3 days. It would be
nice to see some model to model continuity plus run to run
consistency before latching onto a particular storm track.

Current thinking is that precipitation will break out across
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio initially late Saturday night, mainly in
response to upper level lift from the right entrance jet and
northern stream energy. This would be mainly in the form of snow as
thermal profiles are below 0C. As the surface low takes shape and
moves closer to the area, we`ll see precipitation spread across the
entire area and at the same time, warmer air drawn northward will
transition precip to a mix or all rain depending on low level
temperatures. This is where the greatest uncertainty lies. To avoid
a huge shift from the previous forecast, will trend temperatures
slightly warmer, creeping the rain/snow line north /close to the
Louisville and Lexington metros/ but not quite as aggressive as the
30.00z guidance suggests. Hopefully the 30.12z guidance will
increase forecast confidence as the northern and southern stream
energy should be sampled by the upper air network.

At this time, parts of our southern Indiana locations stand the
greatest probability to see accumulating snow, though this
probability isn`t necessarily high. There is the potential for 1 to
3 inches of snow for areas from Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana.
The accumulating snow would fall from Sunday afternoon through the
early Monday morning hours. Some travel impacts here are possible.
All locations to the south have too much uncertainty to discuss
possible snowfall amounts at this time.

Days 4 - 7 Discussion:

In the wake of the weekend storm system, there`s a good consensus
that the upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes bringing an
unseasonably cold air mass into the Ohio Valley. If a healthy
snowpack is realized across portions of the area and to the north,
then Monday high temperatures may only top out in the upper teens
across southern Indiana to mid/upper 20s across southern Kentucky.
Combined with a brisk north wind, particularly Monday morning, and
wind chills may remain in the 0 to +10 range across the north. Our
best setup for strong radiational cooling conditions comes Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the Canadian high pressure slides
overhead. Model consensus puts lows in the lower to middle teens,
but again, a fresh snowpack could send readings well into the single
digits above zero. We`ll have to see how that plays out. Otherwise,
the surface high pushes to our east Tuesday bringing southerly to
southwesterly flow. We`ll begin to moderate some, but likely remain
below normal with highs in the 30s.

By midweek, another active southern stream system crosses the Gulf
coast and begins to lift northeast along the southeast US coast.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the track of this
system, potential phasing with northern stream energy and how far
northwest precipitation may spread back over the Ohio and TN
Valleys. Thermal profiles suggest this could fall as a wintry mix or
snow. Right snow, the 30.00z deterministic and ensembles suggest
this system stays to our southeast but it does bear watching since
it`s still 5 to 7 days out. For now, a model consensus of 20-30
percent POPs seems reasonable and highs/lows in the 30s/20s
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

An upper level disturbance in NW flow will keep light patches of
precipitation going in the area through around mid morning.
Precipitation will likely remain in the form of light snow at
SDF/LEX through 14-15Z before diminishing.  As temps fall below
freezing around sunrise or just after sunrise, some slick spots on
runways could develop.  MVFR conditions with cigs above 2 kft will
affect the TAF sites through mid morning as well.  Flight conditions
will improve after sunrise with the TAF sites returning to VFR by
mid to late morning. Winds, gusty this morning, will remain out of
the NW-N for much of the day and then becoming light easterly this
evening as sfc high pressure moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......AMS








000
FXUS63 KLMK 301114
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
614 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Possible this Morning...

An upper level disturbance pushing south within the broad upper
trough over the area is forecast to maintain and perhaps enhance
very light precip occurring over the region this morning.  This
precip was in the form of a very light rain/drizzle or snow as of
8Z.  Expect this light mix to continue and transition over to mostly
isld-sct light snow showers over southern IN/northern KY/eastern KY
during the pre-dawn hours.  Locations that do get a light snow
shower this morning may see a dusting of accumulation.  This light
snow accumulation and wet road sfcs from light precip overnight
combined with temps falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s this
morning may cause some slick spots.  Road temps as of 8Z were
lagging behind sfc temps by about 2-4 degrees with most roadways
well above freezing in the mid to upper 30s early this morning.
This may help minimize travel issues this morning.  However, with
good CAA in place and the light precip expected to continue through
around sunrise, feel an SPS is in order to highlight possible slick
spots developing especially on bridges and overpasses.  There is a
potential that travel impacts may worsen especially if road temps
can fall below freezing over a wider area creating a more widespread
glaze on roadways.  If this happens, an Advy product may be needed.
Will monitor closely this morning.

Precipitation should end from west to east by mid morning with skies
becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  A good range of high temps
can be expected today with highs ranging throughout the 30s.  The
coolest locations should be southern Indiana and the Bluegrass, and
the warmest locations will be in the Bowling Green area and
southwest toward the TN border.

Sfc high pressure will settle over the region tonight bringing a
period of mostly clear skies and light or calm winds.  Temps should
fall into the mid teens to lower 20s with the coldest locations over
east central KY which will be better positioned within the colder
airmass.

Saturday clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching
storm system.  With southerly winds bringing in slightly warmer air,
temps should moderate into the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs on
Sat.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Across Parts of the Area Sunday...

The focus for the long term period is on the possible winter storm
across parts of the Ohio Valley beginning late Saturday night
through early Monday morning.

The 30.00z model guidance lowered our confidence as models
continue to waffle on the surface low track. The GFS/NAM shifted its
low track a hundred miles northward, bringing it through central
Kentucky Sunday evening. This greatly impacts the low level
temperatures and subsequent snow banding potential across northern
KY into southern Indiana. If this solution verified, only the far
north could see a period of accumulating snow. However, the GEM
swung the other direction with a much further south low track,
resulting in a colder solution and the band of accumulating snow
across Kentucky. The GEM has been unstable the past few days and at
this time has been considered an outlier. Finally, the ECMWF also
trended more north and warmer, coming in line with the GFS/NAM
warmer solution. Despite the 30.00z guidance agreeing somewhat,
confidence remains low due to this shift from the 29.12z guidance,
and previous runs that have waffled the past 3 days. It would be
nice to see some model to model continuity plus run to run
consistency before latching onto a particular storm track.

Current thinking is that precipitation will break out across
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio initially late Saturday night, mainly in
response to upper level lift from the right entrance jet and
northern stream energy. This would be mainly in the form of snow as
thermal profiles are below 0C. As the surface low takes shape and
moves closer to the area, we`ll see precipitation spread across the
entire area and at the same time, warmer air drawn northward will
transition precip to a mix or all rain depending on low level
temperatures. This is where the greatest uncertainty lies. To avoid
a huge shift from the previous forecast, will trend temperatures
slightly warmer, creeping the rain/snow line north /close to the
Louisville and Lexington metros/ but not quite as aggressive as the
30.00z guidance suggests. Hopefully the 30.12z guidance will
increase forecast confidence as the northern and southern stream
energy should be sampled by the upper air network.

At this time, parts of our southern Indiana locations stand the
greatest probability to see accumulating snow, though this
probability isn`t necessarily high. There is the potential for 1 to
3 inches of snow for areas from Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana.
The accumulating snow would fall from Sunday afternoon through the
early Monday morning hours. Some travel impacts here are possible.
All locations to the south have too much uncertainty to discuss
possible snowfall amounts at this time.

Days 4 - 7 Discussion:

In the wake of the weekend storm system, there`s a good consensus
that the upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes bringing an
unseasonably cold air mass into the Ohio Valley. If a healthy
snowpack is realized across portions of the area and to the north,
then Monday high temperatures may only top out in the upper teens
across southern Indiana to mid/upper 20s across southern Kentucky.
Combined with a brisk north wind, particularly Monday morning, and
wind chills may remain in the 0 to +10 range across the north. Our
best setup for strong radiational cooling conditions comes Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the Canadian high pressure slides
overhead. Model consensus puts lows in the lower to middle teens,
but again, a fresh snowpack could send readings well into the single
digits above zero. We`ll have to see how that plays out. Otherwise,
the surface high pushes to our east Tuesday bringing southerly to
southwesterly flow. We`ll begin to moderate some, but likely remain
below normal with highs in the 30s.

By midweek, another active southern stream system crosses the Gulf
coast and begins to lift northeast along the southeast US coast.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the track of this
system, potential phasing with northern stream energy and how far
northwest precipitation may spread back over the Ohio and TN
Valleys. Thermal profiles suggest this could fall as a wintry mix or
snow. Right snow, the 30.00z deterministic and ensembles suggest
this system stays to our southeast but it does bear watching since
it`s still 5 to 7 days out. For now, a model consensus of 20-30
percent POPs seems reasonable and highs/lows in the 30s/20s
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

An upper level disturbance in NW flow will keep light patches of
precipitation going in the area through around mid morning.
Precipitation will likely remain in the form of light snow at
SDF/LEX through 14-15Z before diminishing.  As temps fall below
freezing around sunrise or just after sunrise, some slick spots on
runways could develop.  MVFR conditions with cigs above 2 kft will
affect the TAF sites through mid morning as well.  Flight conditions
will improve after sunrise with the TAF sites returning to VFR by
mid to late morning. Winds, gusty this morning, will remain out of
the NW-N for much of the day and then becoming light easterly this
evening as sfc high pressure moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301114
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
614 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Possible this Morning...

An upper level disturbance pushing south within the broad upper
trough over the area is forecast to maintain and perhaps enhance
very light precip occurring over the region this morning.  This
precip was in the form of a very light rain/drizzle or snow as of
8Z.  Expect this light mix to continue and transition over to mostly
isld-sct light snow showers over southern IN/northern KY/eastern KY
during the pre-dawn hours.  Locations that do get a light snow
shower this morning may see a dusting of accumulation.  This light
snow accumulation and wet road sfcs from light precip overnight
combined with temps falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s this
morning may cause some slick spots.  Road temps as of 8Z were
lagging behind sfc temps by about 2-4 degrees with most roadways
well above freezing in the mid to upper 30s early this morning.
This may help minimize travel issues this morning.  However, with
good CAA in place and the light precip expected to continue through
around sunrise, feel an SPS is in order to highlight possible slick
spots developing especially on bridges and overpasses.  There is a
potential that travel impacts may worsen especially if road temps
can fall below freezing over a wider area creating a more widespread
glaze on roadways.  If this happens, an Advy product may be needed.
Will monitor closely this morning.

Precipitation should end from west to east by mid morning with skies
becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  A good range of high temps
can be expected today with highs ranging throughout the 30s.  The
coolest locations should be southern Indiana and the Bluegrass, and
the warmest locations will be in the Bowling Green area and
southwest toward the TN border.

Sfc high pressure will settle over the region tonight bringing a
period of mostly clear skies and light or calm winds.  Temps should
fall into the mid teens to lower 20s with the coldest locations over
east central KY which will be better positioned within the colder
airmass.

Saturday clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching
storm system.  With southerly winds bringing in slightly warmer air,
temps should moderate into the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs on
Sat.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Across Parts of the Area Sunday...

The focus for the long term period is on the possible winter storm
across parts of the Ohio Valley beginning late Saturday night
through early Monday morning.

The 30.00z model guidance lowered our confidence as models
continue to waffle on the surface low track. The GFS/NAM shifted its
low track a hundred miles northward, bringing it through central
Kentucky Sunday evening. This greatly impacts the low level
temperatures and subsequent snow banding potential across northern
KY into southern Indiana. If this solution verified, only the far
north could see a period of accumulating snow. However, the GEM
swung the other direction with a much further south low track,
resulting in a colder solution and the band of accumulating snow
across Kentucky. The GEM has been unstable the past few days and at
this time has been considered an outlier. Finally, the ECMWF also
trended more north and warmer, coming in line with the GFS/NAM
warmer solution. Despite the 30.00z guidance agreeing somewhat,
confidence remains low due to this shift from the 29.12z guidance,
and previous runs that have waffled the past 3 days. It would be
nice to see some model to model continuity plus run to run
consistency before latching onto a particular storm track.

Current thinking is that precipitation will break out across
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio initially late Saturday night, mainly in
response to upper level lift from the right entrance jet and
northern stream energy. This would be mainly in the form of snow as
thermal profiles are below 0C. As the surface low takes shape and
moves closer to the area, we`ll see precipitation spread across the
entire area and at the same time, warmer air drawn northward will
transition precip to a mix or all rain depending on low level
temperatures. This is where the greatest uncertainty lies. To avoid
a huge shift from the previous forecast, will trend temperatures
slightly warmer, creeping the rain/snow line north /close to the
Louisville and Lexington metros/ but not quite as aggressive as the
30.00z guidance suggests. Hopefully the 30.12z guidance will
increase forecast confidence as the northern and southern stream
energy should be sampled by the upper air network.

At this time, parts of our southern Indiana locations stand the
greatest probability to see accumulating snow, though this
probability isn`t necessarily high. There is the potential for 1 to
3 inches of snow for areas from Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana.
The accumulating snow would fall from Sunday afternoon through the
early Monday morning hours. Some travel impacts here are possible.
All locations to the south have too much uncertainty to discuss
possible snowfall amounts at this time.

Days 4 - 7 Discussion:

In the wake of the weekend storm system, there`s a good consensus
that the upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes bringing an
unseasonably cold air mass into the Ohio Valley. If a healthy
snowpack is realized across portions of the area and to the north,
then Monday high temperatures may only top out in the upper teens
across southern Indiana to mid/upper 20s across southern Kentucky.
Combined with a brisk north wind, particularly Monday morning, and
wind chills may remain in the 0 to +10 range across the north. Our
best setup for strong radiational cooling conditions comes Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the Canadian high pressure slides
overhead. Model consensus puts lows in the lower to middle teens,
but again, a fresh snowpack could send readings well into the single
digits above zero. We`ll have to see how that plays out. Otherwise,
the surface high pushes to our east Tuesday bringing southerly to
southwesterly flow. We`ll begin to moderate some, but likely remain
below normal with highs in the 30s.

By midweek, another active southern stream system crosses the Gulf
coast and begins to lift northeast along the southeast US coast.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the track of this
system, potential phasing with northern stream energy and how far
northwest precipitation may spread back over the Ohio and TN
Valleys. Thermal profiles suggest this could fall as a wintry mix or
snow. Right snow, the 30.00z deterministic and ensembles suggest
this system stays to our southeast but it does bear watching since
it`s still 5 to 7 days out. For now, a model consensus of 20-30
percent POPs seems reasonable and highs/lows in the 30s/20s
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

An upper level disturbance in NW flow will keep light patches of
precipitation going in the area through around mid morning.
Precipitation will likely remain in the form of light snow at
SDF/LEX through 14-15Z before diminishing.  As temps fall below
freezing around sunrise or just after sunrise, some slick spots on
runways could develop.  MVFR conditions with cigs above 2 kft will
affect the TAF sites through mid morning as well.  Flight conditions
will improve after sunrise with the TAF sites returning to VFR by
mid to late morning. Winds, gusty this morning, will remain out of
the NW-N for much of the day and then becoming light easterly this
evening as sfc high pressure moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300821
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Possible this Morning...

An upper level disturbance pushing south within the broad upper
trough over the area is forecast to maintain and perhaps enhance
very light precip occurring over the region this morning.  This
precip was in the form of a very light rain/drizzle or snow as of
8Z.  Expect this light mix to continue and transition over to mostly
isld-sct light snow showers over southern IN/northern KY/eastern KY
during the pre-dawn hours.  Locations that do get a light snow
shower this morning may see a dusting of accumulation.  This light
snow accumulation and wet road sfcs from light precip overnight
combined with temps falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s this
morning may cause some slick spots.  Road temps as of 8Z were
lagging behind sfc temps by about 2-4 degrees with most roadways
well above freezing in the mid to upper 30s early this morning.
This may help minimize travel issues this morning.  However, with
good CAA in place and the light precip expected to continue through
around sunrise, feel an SPS is in order to highlight possible slick
spots developing especially on bridges and overpasses.  There is a
potential that travel impacts may worsen especially if road temps
can fall below freezing over a wider area creating a more widespread
glaze on roadways.  If this happens, an Advy product may be needed.
Will monitor closely this morning.

Precipitation should end from west to east by mid morning with skies
becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  A good range of high temps
can be expected today with highs ranging throughout the 30s.  The
coolest locations should be southern Indiana and the Bluegrass, and
the warmest locations will be in the Bowling Green area and
southwest toward the TN border.

Sfc high pressure will settle over the region tonight bringing a
period of mostly clear skies and light or calm winds.  Temps should
fall into the mid teens to lower 20s with the coldest locations over
east central KY which will be better positioned within the colder
airmass.

Saturday clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching
storm system.  With southerly winds bringing in slightly warmer air,
temps should moderate into the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs on
Sat.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Across Parts of the Area Sunday...

The focus for the long term period is on the possible winter storm
across parts of the Ohio Valley beginning late Saturday night
through early Monday morning.

The 30.00z model guidance lowered our confidence as models
continue to waffle on the surface low track. The GFS/NAM shifted its
low track a hundred miles northward, bringing it through central
Kentucky Sunday evening. This greatly impacts the low level
temperatures and subsequent snow banding potential across northern
KY into southern Indiana. If this solution verified, only the far
north could see a period of accumulating snow. However, the GEM
swung the other direction with a much further south low track,
resulting in a colder solution and the band of accumulating snow
across Kentucky. The GEM has been unstable the past few days and at
this time has been considered an outlier. Finally, the ECMWF also
trended more north and warmer, coming in line with the GFS/NAM
warmer solution. Despite the 30.00z guidance agreeing somewhat,
confidence remains low due to this shift from the 29.12z guidance,
and previous runs that have waffled the past 3 days. It would be
nice to see some model to model continuity plus run to run
consistency before latching onto a particular storm track.

Current thinking is that precipitation will break out across
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio initially late Saturday night, mainly in
response to upper level lift from the right entrance jet and
northern stream energy. This would be mainly in the form of snow as
thermal profiles are below 0C. As the surface low takes shape and
moves closer to the area, we`ll see precipitation spread across the
entire area and at the same time, warmer air drawn northward will
transition precip to a mix or all rain depending on low level
temperatures. This is where the greatest uncertainty lies. To avoid
a huge shift from the previous forecast, will trend temperatures
slightly warmer, creeping the rain/snow line north /close to the
Louisville and Lexington metros/ but not quite as aggressive as the
30.00z guidance suggests. Hopefully the 30.12z guidance will
increase forecast confidence as the northern and southern stream
energy should be sampled by the upper air network.

At this time, parts of our southern Indiana locations stand the
greatest probability to see accumulating snow, though this
probability isn`t necessarily high. There is the potential for 1 to
3 inches of snow for areas from Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana.
The accumulating snow would fall from Sunday afternoon through the
early Monday morning hours. Some travel impacts here are possible.
All locations to the south have too much uncertainty to discuss
possible snowfall amounts at this time.

Days 4 - 7 Discussion:

In the wake of the weekend storm system, there`s a good consensus
that the upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes bringing an
unseasonably cold air mass into the Ohio Valley. If a healthy
snowpack is realized across portions of the area and to the north,
then Monday high temperatures may only top out in the upper teens
across southern Indiana to mid/upper 20s across southern Kentucky.
Combined with a brisk north wind, particularly Monday morning, and
wind chills may remain in the 0 to +10 range across the north. Our
best setup for strong radiational cooling conditions comes Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the Canadian high pressure slides
overhead. Model consensus puts lows in the lower to middle teens,
but again, a fresh snowpack could send readings well into the single
digits above zero. We`ll have to see how that plays out. Otherwise,
the surface high pushes to our east Tuesday bringing southerly to
southwesterly flow. We`ll begin to moderate some, but likely remain
below normal with highs in the 30s.

By midweek, another active southern stream system crosses the Gulf
coast and begins to lift northeast along the southeast US coast.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the track of this
system, potential phasing with northern stream energy and how far
northwest precipitation may spread back over the Ohio and TN
Valleys. Thermal profiles suggest this could fall as a wintry mix or
snow. Right snow, the 30.00z deterministic and ensembles suggest
this system stays to our southeast but it does bear watching since
it`s still 5 to 7 days out. For now, a model consensus of 20-30
percent POPs seems reasonable and highs/lows in the 30s/20s
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

A few upper level disturbances in NW flow will keep light patches of
precipitation going in the area through around sunrise.
Precipitation will likely remain a mix of rain/drizzle/snow at
SDF/LEX for the next few hours before switching primarily over to
-SHSN during the pre-dawn hours.  BWG will remain of mix of
rain/drizzle/snow throughout the morning hours.  As temps fall below
freezing before sunrise, some slick spots on runways could develop.
MVFR conditions with cigs below 2 kft will primarily be the rule
overnight with cigs expected to decline quickly over the next few
hours.  Flight conditions will improve after sunrise with the TAF
sites returning to VFR by early afternoon. Winds will remain out of
the NW-N for much of the day and then becoming light NE this evening
as sfc high pressure moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300821
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Possible this Morning...

An upper level disturbance pushing south within the broad upper
trough over the area is forecast to maintain and perhaps enhance
very light precip occurring over the region this morning.  This
precip was in the form of a very light rain/drizzle or snow as of
8Z.  Expect this light mix to continue and transition over to mostly
isld-sct light snow showers over southern IN/northern KY/eastern KY
during the pre-dawn hours.  Locations that do get a light snow
shower this morning may see a dusting of accumulation.  This light
snow accumulation and wet road sfcs from light precip overnight
combined with temps falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s this
morning may cause some slick spots.  Road temps as of 8Z were
lagging behind sfc temps by about 2-4 degrees with most roadways
well above freezing in the mid to upper 30s early this morning.
This may help minimize travel issues this morning.  However, with
good CAA in place and the light precip expected to continue through
around sunrise, feel an SPS is in order to highlight possible slick
spots developing especially on bridges and overpasses.  There is a
potential that travel impacts may worsen especially if road temps
can fall below freezing over a wider area creating a more widespread
glaze on roadways.  If this happens, an Advy product may be needed.
Will monitor closely this morning.

Precipitation should end from west to east by mid morning with skies
becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  A good range of high temps
can be expected today with highs ranging throughout the 30s.  The
coolest locations should be southern Indiana and the Bluegrass, and
the warmest locations will be in the Bowling Green area and
southwest toward the TN border.

Sfc high pressure will settle over the region tonight bringing a
period of mostly clear skies and light or calm winds.  Temps should
fall into the mid teens to lower 20s with the coldest locations over
east central KY which will be better positioned within the colder
airmass.

Saturday clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching
storm system.  With southerly winds bringing in slightly warmer air,
temps should moderate into the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs on
Sat.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Across Parts of the Area Sunday...

The focus for the long term period is on the possible winter storm
across parts of the Ohio Valley beginning late Saturday night
through early Monday morning.

The 30.00z model guidance lowered our confidence as models
continue to waffle on the surface low track. The GFS/NAM shifted its
low track a hundred miles northward, bringing it through central
Kentucky Sunday evening. This greatly impacts the low level
temperatures and subsequent snow banding potential across northern
KY into southern Indiana. If this solution verified, only the far
north could see a period of accumulating snow. However, the GEM
swung the other direction with a much further south low track,
resulting in a colder solution and the band of accumulating snow
across Kentucky. The GEM has been unstable the past few days and at
this time has been considered an outlier. Finally, the ECMWF also
trended more north and warmer, coming in line with the GFS/NAM
warmer solution. Despite the 30.00z guidance agreeing somewhat,
confidence remains low due to this shift from the 29.12z guidance,
and previous runs that have waffled the past 3 days. It would be
nice to see some model to model continuity plus run to run
consistency before latching onto a particular storm track.

Current thinking is that precipitation will break out across
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio initially late Saturday night, mainly in
response to upper level lift from the right entrance jet and
northern stream energy. This would be mainly in the form of snow as
thermal profiles are below 0C. As the surface low takes shape and
moves closer to the area, we`ll see precipitation spread across the
entire area and at the same time, warmer air drawn northward will
transition precip to a mix or all rain depending on low level
temperatures. This is where the greatest uncertainty lies. To avoid
a huge shift from the previous forecast, will trend temperatures
slightly warmer, creeping the rain/snow line north /close to the
Louisville and Lexington metros/ but not quite as aggressive as the
30.00z guidance suggests. Hopefully the 30.12z guidance will
increase forecast confidence as the northern and southern stream
energy should be sampled by the upper air network.

At this time, parts of our southern Indiana locations stand the
greatest probability to see accumulating snow, though this
probability isn`t necessarily high. There is the potential for 1 to
3 inches of snow for areas from Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana.
The accumulating snow would fall from Sunday afternoon through the
early Monday morning hours. Some travel impacts here are possible.
All locations to the south have too much uncertainty to discuss
possible snowfall amounts at this time.

Days 4 - 7 Discussion:

In the wake of the weekend storm system, there`s a good consensus
that the upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes bringing an
unseasonably cold air mass into the Ohio Valley. If a healthy
snowpack is realized across portions of the area and to the north,
then Monday high temperatures may only top out in the upper teens
across southern Indiana to mid/upper 20s across southern Kentucky.
Combined with a brisk north wind, particularly Monday morning, and
wind chills may remain in the 0 to +10 range across the north. Our
best setup for strong radiational cooling conditions comes Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the Canadian high pressure slides
overhead. Model consensus puts lows in the lower to middle teens,
but again, a fresh snowpack could send readings well into the single
digits above zero. We`ll have to see how that plays out. Otherwise,
the surface high pushes to our east Tuesday bringing southerly to
southwesterly flow. We`ll begin to moderate some, but likely remain
below normal with highs in the 30s.

By midweek, another active southern stream system crosses the Gulf
coast and begins to lift northeast along the southeast US coast.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the track of this
system, potential phasing with northern stream energy and how far
northwest precipitation may spread back over the Ohio and TN
Valleys. Thermal profiles suggest this could fall as a wintry mix or
snow. Right snow, the 30.00z deterministic and ensembles suggest
this system stays to our southeast but it does bear watching since
it`s still 5 to 7 days out. For now, a model consensus of 20-30
percent POPs seems reasonable and highs/lows in the 30s/20s
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

A few upper level disturbances in NW flow will keep light patches of
precipitation going in the area through around sunrise.
Precipitation will likely remain a mix of rain/drizzle/snow at
SDF/LEX for the next few hours before switching primarily over to
-SHSN during the pre-dawn hours.  BWG will remain of mix of
rain/drizzle/snow throughout the morning hours.  As temps fall below
freezing before sunrise, some slick spots on runways could develop.
MVFR conditions with cigs below 2 kft will primarily be the rule
overnight with cigs expected to decline quickly over the next few
hours.  Flight conditions will improve after sunrise with the TAF
sites returning to VFR by early afternoon. Winds will remain out of
the NW-N for much of the day and then becoming light NE this evening
as sfc high pressure moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300533
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1233 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1150 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Updated the forecast to expand low chances for light precip in the
form of rain/drizzle or light snow through the overnight hours over
much of the area.  Some of the latest 0Z guidance and high-res model
runs indicate the upper level wave over northern Indiana will drop
south and cause continued light precip over the area through
sunrise.  Will need to watch precip with this wave closely as it
could cause some slick spots for the Friday morning commute as temps
are expected to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s during the
pre-dawn hours.

Issued at 911 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Radar mosaic this evening shows light returns across the region,
including across west central KY. At least some of this is reaching
the ground as Owensboro and Lexington are currently reporting light
rain. Have expanded pops back to the west over the next few hours to
cover this light precipitation. This precip could be light rain with
some snow mixing in. Also, decreased pops to overnight to slight
chance.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Friday Morning?...

Cold front is almost through the eastern CWA with temperatures
already in the upper 30s over some of our southern Indiana counties.
In contrast, SE Kentucky is still in the upper 50s just ahead of the
front. Temperatures will be falling the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Data still supports some isolated to scattered showers
developing mainly along and east of I-65 late this afternoon into
the evening and overnight. This would be ahead of a PV anamoly
dropping out of the mid Mississippi River Valley and correspondent
with a NW surface winds aiding in upslope flow across our far east.
With lapse rates steepening, p-type is expected to transition to
snow this evening. Previous forecast had mentioned a small chance
for some freezing drizzle, and can`t totally rule that out at this
time, however latest data supports saturation up to -7 or -8 C
before temperatures fall below freezing. Will not directly mention
this p-type in the forecast although may allude to the possibility
in other products like the HWO. Also, not expecting snow fall to be
very intense as there isn`t very much (if any) lift through the
saturated layer. Will continue to mention a dusting of snow possible
through the overnight and early morning hours across our east, where
best coverage of snow is likely to be. A few slick spots aren`t out
of the question for the Friday morning commute and will consider a
Special Weather Statement to highlight threats.

Otherwise, lows will drop into the upper 20s tonight, with low
clouds lingering through the first half of Friday under the
inversion. We`ll see some sun by the afternoon hours with temps
staying in the 30s.

Surfac high pressure settles over the by Friday evening, with good
radiational cooling conditions Friday night. This should allow for
lows in the mid teens NE to around 20 most other places.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snows Increasingly Likely Late This Weekend Across
Southern Indiana and Portions of Northern Kentucky...

==================================
Synoptic Scale Overview
==================================

A split flow pattern aloft will be found at the beginning of the
forecast period.  By Sunday, a moderately strong mid-level wave will
drop out of the northern Plains and amplify as it approaches the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will
take place over Arkansas with the newly formed surface low moving
from SW Tennessee into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning.
With cold air in place across the northern half of the forecast
area, a swath of accumulating snows looks increasingly likely.
Further south, near the surface low track, a wintry mix of rain and
snow appears likely...eventually transitioning to all snow by Sunday
night.  The upper air pattern is then forecast to relax a bit,
however, significant amplification is expected to occur by midweek
as waves in the northern and southern stream attempt to phase and
carve out a large/deep trough over the eastern third of the United
States.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Model Trends...

Over the last 24 hours, we have started to see a more definitive
case of model convergence on the evolution of the late weekend storm
system.  All of the 29/12Z guidance has trended colder with regards
to the lower boundary layer temperatures.  The GFS and Euro have led
the trend in the colder solutions, while the NAM and Canadian GEM
have now started trending colder as well.  The NAM is still the
warmest of the models, while the GFS/GEM/Euro are generally the same
as their previous runs.  Noticeably, the Euro and GFS solutions have
continued to show remarkable continuity in their runs, which results
in increasing forecaster confidence on the evolution of this
system.  Given the current datasets and trends, it appears
increasingly likely that accumulating snows will be a threat to
southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky.

The model data continues to exhibit some spread regarding the
mid-late week system as the upper level flow and timing of features
remain uncertain.  However, there appears to be at least some hint
of agreement that another weather system will affect the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

Model Preference...

For this forecast cycle we will be utilizing a blend of the previous
forecast while incorporating the colder solutions from the new
datasets.  The forecast itself remains largely unchanged, but given
the relatively good model agreement, we will be increasing PoPs
for Saturday Night through Monday morning.  As for QPF, a blend of
the GFS/Euro/WPC Guidance will be incorporated.

From midweek onward, have generally stuck closer to the blend of the
29/12Z GFS Ensemble and the 29/00Z Euro ensembles along with
incorporating our previous forecast.

Forecast Confidence...

Forecast confidence on the occurrence of precipitation from Saturday
Night through Monday morning is high given the good model
agreement.  Forecast confidence on the precipitation type is much
lower given the uncertainty in the forecast of lower atmospheric
temperature profiles.  This is especially true across much of
southern Kentucky where low-level warm air will likely keep
precipitation mixed or in plain liquid.  Forecast confidence is
increasing however, that much of southern Indiana and portions far
northern KY will see mostly snow with the late weekend system.

Forecast confidence from midweek onward can be described as
low-moderate in both temperature and precipitation departments.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

A quiet day of weather is expected on Saturday as we wait for the
approach of the late weekend weather system.  The day will likely
start off partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late in
the day.  Highs look to warm into the upper 30s in the north with
lower 40s across the south.

By Saturday night, we expect a band of precipitation to develop out
to our northwest within a large baroclinic zone from the central
Plains into the Midwest.  Moisture is expected to return to the
region during the overnight period with precipitation breaking out
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky very late Saturday
night.  Thermal profiles generally look cold enough for mostly snow,
but a mix of snow and rain may occur down across southern Kentucky.

Precipitation is expected to expand and increase in intensity during
the day on Sunday across the region.  Model proximity soundings and
thermal cross-sections suggest that mainly snow will occur across
southern Indiana and across far northern KY.  Just exactly how far
south the rain/snow line will be is not definitive at this time.
However, incorporating the multi-model consensus, it does appear
that the previous forecast of rain and snow across much of
south-central Kentucky still looks to be likely at this time.
However, should thermal profiles end up being slightly cooler, the
lower boundary layer may be sufficiently cool enough to have snow as
the pre-dominant precipitation type despite the fact that surface
temperatures may be several degrees above freezing.

As the surface low passes through the far southern portion of our
forecast area, colder air will be pulled in from the north resulting
in all areas seeing snow Sunday evening.  The GFS and Euro continue
to show a good deformation band signal within their data sets this
afternoon.  This deformation band looks to start off in central IN
Sunday afternoon and then many pivot southeastward into Kentucky
late Sunday night and early Sunday morning.  Based on the current
datasets, the best chances for accumulating snows looks to be from
Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this system.
It should be noted that the weather features forcing this system are
located quite a ways from the North American upper air network and
will not be properly sampled until late tonight or Friday morning.
Because of the numerical models sensitivity to initial datasets,
oscillations in the model solutions are still possible.  We
encourage people with travel plans this weekend to keep a close eye
on subsequent forecasts as travel may be negatively impacted late
this weekend.

Quieter weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as we will be in
between weather systems.  High and low temperature forecasts are
particularly hard to nail down at this point as they may be greatly
impacted if we have snow cover.  For now, have stuck close to the
SuperBlend guidance with highs in the mid-upper 20s to the lower 30s.

From midweek on, we will need to keep an eye on another weather
system that will affect our region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  The track and evolution of this system is highly unknown and
may be modulated to an extent by the late weekend system.  For now,
have kept a rain/snow mix chance in for Wednesday with some light
snow possible Wednesday night.  Much colder conditions look likely
as we head to towards the end of the week.  Current guidance
generally gives highs in the 20s, but this could be too optimistic
if a snow pack exists.  Overnight lows in the upper single digits to
lower teens are expected.  However, sub-zero readings will be on the
table if a significant snow pack is realized.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

A few upper level disturbances in NW flow will keep light patches of
precipitation going in the area through around sunrise.
Precipitation will likely remain a mix of rain/drizzle/snow at
SDF/LEX for the next few hours before switching primarily over to
-SHSN during the pre-dawn hours.  BWG will remain of mix of
rain/drizzle/snow throughout the morning hours.  As temps fall below
freezing before sunrise, some slick spots on runways could develop.
MVFR conditions with cigs below 2 kft will primarily be the rule
overnight with cigs expected to decline quickly over the next few
hours.  Flight conditions will improve after sunrise with the TAF
sites returning to VFR by early afternoon. Winds will remain out of
the NW-N for much of the day and then becoming light NE this evening
as sfc high pressure moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300533
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1233 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1150 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Updated the forecast to expand low chances for light precip in the
form of rain/drizzle or light snow through the overnight hours over
much of the area.  Some of the latest 0Z guidance and high-res model
runs indicate the upper level wave over northern Indiana will drop
south and cause continued light precip over the area through
sunrise.  Will need to watch precip with this wave closely as it
could cause some slick spots for the Friday morning commute as temps
are expected to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s during the
pre-dawn hours.

Issued at 911 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Radar mosaic this evening shows light returns across the region,
including across west central KY. At least some of this is reaching
the ground as Owensboro and Lexington are currently reporting light
rain. Have expanded pops back to the west over the next few hours to
cover this light precipitation. This precip could be light rain with
some snow mixing in. Also, decreased pops to overnight to slight
chance.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Friday Morning?...

Cold front is almost through the eastern CWA with temperatures
already in the upper 30s over some of our southern Indiana counties.
In contrast, SE Kentucky is still in the upper 50s just ahead of the
front. Temperatures will be falling the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Data still supports some isolated to scattered showers
developing mainly along and east of I-65 late this afternoon into
the evening and overnight. This would be ahead of a PV anamoly
dropping out of the mid Mississippi River Valley and correspondent
with a NW surface winds aiding in upslope flow across our far east.
With lapse rates steepening, p-type is expected to transition to
snow this evening. Previous forecast had mentioned a small chance
for some freezing drizzle, and can`t totally rule that out at this
time, however latest data supports saturation up to -7 or -8 C
before temperatures fall below freezing. Will not directly mention
this p-type in the forecast although may allude to the possibility
in other products like the HWO. Also, not expecting snow fall to be
very intense as there isn`t very much (if any) lift through the
saturated layer. Will continue to mention a dusting of snow possible
through the overnight and early morning hours across our east, where
best coverage of snow is likely to be. A few slick spots aren`t out
of the question for the Friday morning commute and will consider a
Special Weather Statement to highlight threats.

Otherwise, lows will drop into the upper 20s tonight, with low
clouds lingering through the first half of Friday under the
inversion. We`ll see some sun by the afternoon hours with temps
staying in the 30s.

Surfac high pressure settles over the by Friday evening, with good
radiational cooling conditions Friday night. This should allow for
lows in the mid teens NE to around 20 most other places.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snows Increasingly Likely Late This Weekend Across
Southern Indiana and Portions of Northern Kentucky...

==================================
Synoptic Scale Overview
==================================

A split flow pattern aloft will be found at the beginning of the
forecast period.  By Sunday, a moderately strong mid-level wave will
drop out of the northern Plains and amplify as it approaches the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will
take place over Arkansas with the newly formed surface low moving
from SW Tennessee into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning.
With cold air in place across the northern half of the forecast
area, a swath of accumulating snows looks increasingly likely.
Further south, near the surface low track, a wintry mix of rain and
snow appears likely...eventually transitioning to all snow by Sunday
night.  The upper air pattern is then forecast to relax a bit,
however, significant amplification is expected to occur by midweek
as waves in the northern and southern stream attempt to phase and
carve out a large/deep trough over the eastern third of the United
States.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Model Trends...

Over the last 24 hours, we have started to see a more definitive
case of model convergence on the evolution of the late weekend storm
system.  All of the 29/12Z guidance has trended colder with regards
to the lower boundary layer temperatures.  The GFS and Euro have led
the trend in the colder solutions, while the NAM and Canadian GEM
have now started trending colder as well.  The NAM is still the
warmest of the models, while the GFS/GEM/Euro are generally the same
as their previous runs.  Noticeably, the Euro and GFS solutions have
continued to show remarkable continuity in their runs, which results
in increasing forecaster confidence on the evolution of this
system.  Given the current datasets and trends, it appears
increasingly likely that accumulating snows will be a threat to
southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky.

The model data continues to exhibit some spread regarding the
mid-late week system as the upper level flow and timing of features
remain uncertain.  However, there appears to be at least some hint
of agreement that another weather system will affect the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

Model Preference...

For this forecast cycle we will be utilizing a blend of the previous
forecast while incorporating the colder solutions from the new
datasets.  The forecast itself remains largely unchanged, but given
the relatively good model agreement, we will be increasing PoPs
for Saturday Night through Monday morning.  As for QPF, a blend of
the GFS/Euro/WPC Guidance will be incorporated.

From midweek onward, have generally stuck closer to the blend of the
29/12Z GFS Ensemble and the 29/00Z Euro ensembles along with
incorporating our previous forecast.

Forecast Confidence...

Forecast confidence on the occurrence of precipitation from Saturday
Night through Monday morning is high given the good model
agreement.  Forecast confidence on the precipitation type is much
lower given the uncertainty in the forecast of lower atmospheric
temperature profiles.  This is especially true across much of
southern Kentucky where low-level warm air will likely keep
precipitation mixed or in plain liquid.  Forecast confidence is
increasing however, that much of southern Indiana and portions far
northern KY will see mostly snow with the late weekend system.

Forecast confidence from midweek onward can be described as
low-moderate in both temperature and precipitation departments.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

A quiet day of weather is expected on Saturday as we wait for the
approach of the late weekend weather system.  The day will likely
start off partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late in
the day.  Highs look to warm into the upper 30s in the north with
lower 40s across the south.

By Saturday night, we expect a band of precipitation to develop out
to our northwest within a large baroclinic zone from the central
Plains into the Midwest.  Moisture is expected to return to the
region during the overnight period with precipitation breaking out
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky very late Saturday
night.  Thermal profiles generally look cold enough for mostly snow,
but a mix of snow and rain may occur down across southern Kentucky.

Precipitation is expected to expand and increase in intensity during
the day on Sunday across the region.  Model proximity soundings and
thermal cross-sections suggest that mainly snow will occur across
southern Indiana and across far northern KY.  Just exactly how far
south the rain/snow line will be is not definitive at this time.
However, incorporating the multi-model consensus, it does appear
that the previous forecast of rain and snow across much of
south-central Kentucky still looks to be likely at this time.
However, should thermal profiles end up being slightly cooler, the
lower boundary layer may be sufficiently cool enough to have snow as
the pre-dominant precipitation type despite the fact that surface
temperatures may be several degrees above freezing.

As the surface low passes through the far southern portion of our
forecast area, colder air will be pulled in from the north resulting
in all areas seeing snow Sunday evening.  The GFS and Euro continue
to show a good deformation band signal within their data sets this
afternoon.  This deformation band looks to start off in central IN
Sunday afternoon and then many pivot southeastward into Kentucky
late Sunday night and early Sunday morning.  Based on the current
datasets, the best chances for accumulating snows looks to be from
Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this system.
It should be noted that the weather features forcing this system are
located quite a ways from the North American upper air network and
will not be properly sampled until late tonight or Friday morning.
Because of the numerical models sensitivity to initial datasets,
oscillations in the model solutions are still possible.  We
encourage people with travel plans this weekend to keep a close eye
on subsequent forecasts as travel may be negatively impacted late
this weekend.

Quieter weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as we will be in
between weather systems.  High and low temperature forecasts are
particularly hard to nail down at this point as they may be greatly
impacted if we have snow cover.  For now, have stuck close to the
SuperBlend guidance with highs in the mid-upper 20s to the lower 30s.

From midweek on, we will need to keep an eye on another weather
system that will affect our region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  The track and evolution of this system is highly unknown and
may be modulated to an extent by the late weekend system.  For now,
have kept a rain/snow mix chance in for Wednesday with some light
snow possible Wednesday night.  Much colder conditions look likely
as we head to towards the end of the week.  Current guidance
generally gives highs in the 20s, but this could be too optimistic
if a snow pack exists.  Overnight lows in the upper single digits to
lower teens are expected.  However, sub-zero readings will be on the
table if a significant snow pack is realized.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

A few upper level disturbances in NW flow will keep light patches of
precipitation going in the area through around sunrise.
Precipitation will likely remain a mix of rain/drizzle/snow at
SDF/LEX for the next few hours before switching primarily over to
-SHSN during the pre-dawn hours.  BWG will remain of mix of
rain/drizzle/snow throughout the morning hours.  As temps fall below
freezing before sunrise, some slick spots on runways could develop.
MVFR conditions with cigs below 2 kft will primarily be the rule
overnight with cigs expected to decline quickly over the next few
hours.  Flight conditions will improve after sunrise with the TAF
sites returning to VFR by early afternoon. Winds will remain out of
the NW-N for much of the day and then becoming light NE this evening
as sfc high pressure moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300452
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1152 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1150 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Updated the forecast to expand low chances for light precip in the
form of rain/drizzle or light snow through the overnight hours over
much of the area.  Some of the latest 0Z guidance and high-res model
runs indicate the upper level wave over northern Indiana will drop
south and cause continued light precip over the area through
sunrise.  Will need to watch precip with this wave closely as it
could cause some slick spots for the Friday morning commute as temps
are expected to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s during the
pre-dawn hours.

Issued at 911 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Radar mosaic this evening shows light returns across the region,
including across west central KY. At least some of this is reaching
the ground as Owensboro and Lexington are currently reporting light
rain. Have expanded pops back to the west over the next few hours to
cover this light precipitation. This precip could be light rain with
some snow mixing in. Also, decreased pops to overnight to slight
chance.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Friday Morning?...

Cold front is almost through the eastern CWA with temperatures
already in the upper 30s over some of our southern Indiana counties.
In contrast, SE Kentucky is still in the upper 50s just ahead of the
front. Temperatures will be falling the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Data still supports some isolated to scattered showers
developing mainly along and east of I-65 late this afternoon into
the evening and overnight. This would be ahead of a PV anamoly
dropping out of the mid Mississippi River Valley and correspondent
with a NW surface winds aiding in upslope flow across our far east.
With lapse rates steepening, p-type is expected to transition to
snow this evening. Previous forecast had mentioned a small chance
for some freezing drizzle, and can`t totally rule that out at this
time, however latest data supports saturation up to -7 or -8 C
before temperatures fall below freezing. Will not directly mention
this p-type in the forecast although may allude to the possibility
in other products like the HWO. Also, not expecting snow fall to be
very intense as there isn`t very much (if any) lift through the
saturated layer. Will continue to mention a dusting of snow possible
through the overnight and early morning hours across our east, where
best coverage of snow is likely to be. A few slick spots aren`t out
of the question for the Friday morning commute and will consider a
Special Weather Statement to highlight threats.

Otherwise, lows will drop into the upper 20s tonight, with low
clouds lingering through the first half of Friday under the
inversion. We`ll see some sun by the afternoon hours with temps
staying in the 30s.

Surfac high pressure settles over the by Friday evening, with good
radiational cooling conditions Friday night. This should allow for
lows in the mid teens NE to around 20 most other places.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snows Increasingly Likely Late This Weekend Across
Southern Indiana and Portions of Northern Kentucky...

==================================
Synoptic Scale Overview
==================================

A split flow pattern aloft will be found at the beginning of the
forecast period.  By Sunday, a moderately strong mid-level wave will
drop out of the northern Plains and amplify as it approaches the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will
take place over Arkansas with the newly formed surface low moving
from SW Tennessee into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning.
With cold air in place across the northern half of the forecast
area, a swath of accumulating snows looks increasingly likely.
Further south, near the surface low track, a wintry mix of rain and
snow appears likely...eventually transitioning to all snow by Sunday
night.  The upper air pattern is then forecast to relax a bit,
however, significant amplification is expected to occur by midweek
as waves in the northern and southern stream attempt to phase and
carve out a large/deep trough over the eastern third of the United
States.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Model Trends...

Over the last 24 hours, we have started to see a more definitive
case of model convergence on the evolution of the late weekend storm
system.  All of the 29/12Z guidance has trended colder with regards
to the lower boundary layer temperatures.  The GFS and Euro have led
the trend in the colder solutions, while the NAM and Canadian GEM
have now started trending colder as well.  The NAM is still the
warmest of the models, while the GFS/GEM/Euro are generally the same
as their previous runs.  Noticeably, the Euro and GFS solutions have
continued to show remarkable continuity in their runs, which results
in increasing forecaster confidence on the evolution of this
system.  Given the current datasets and trends, it appears
increasingly likely that accumulating snows will be a threat to
southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky.

The model data continues to exhibit some spread regarding the
mid-late week system as the upper level flow and timing of features
remain uncertain.  However, there appears to be at least some hint
of agreement that another weather system will affect the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

Model Preference...

For this forecast cycle we will be utilizing a blend of the previous
forecast while incorporating the colder solutions from the new
datasets.  The forecast itself remains largely unchanged, but given
the relatively good model agreement, we will be increasing PoPs
for Saturday Night through Monday morning.  As for QPF, a blend of
the GFS/Euro/WPC Guidance will be incorporated.

From midweek onward, have generally stuck closer to the blend of the
29/12Z GFS Ensemble and the 29/00Z Euro ensembles along with
incorporating our previous forecast.

Forecast Confidence...

Forecast confidence on the occurrence of precipitation from Saturday
Night through Monday morning is high given the good model
agreement.  Forecast confidence on the precipitation type is much
lower given the uncertainty in the forecast of lower atmospheric
temperature profiles.  This is especially true across much of
southern Kentucky where low-level warm air will likely keep
precipitation mixed or in plain liquid.  Forecast confidence is
increasing however, that much of southern Indiana and portions far
northern KY will see mostly snow with the late weekend system.

Forecast confidence from midweek onward can be described as
low-moderate in both temperature and precipitation departments.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

A quiet day of weather is expected on Saturday as we wait for the
approach of the late weekend weather system.  The day will likely
start off partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late in
the day.  Highs look to warm into the upper 30s in the north with
lower 40s across the south.

By Saturday night, we expect a band of precipitation to develop out
to our northwest within a large baroclinic zone from the central
Plains into the Midwest.  Moisture is expected to return to the
region during the overnight period with precipitation breaking out
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky very late Saturday
night.  Thermal profiles generally look cold enough for mostly snow,
but a mix of snow and rain may occur down across southern Kentucky.

Precipitation is expected to expand and increase in intensity during
the day on Sunday across the region.  Model proximity soundings and
thermal cross-sections suggest that mainly snow will occur across
southern Indiana and across far northern KY.  Just exactly how far
south the rain/snow line will be is not definitive at this time.
However, incorporating the multi-model consensus, it does appear
that the previous forecast of rain and snow across much of
south-central Kentucky still looks to be likely at this time.
However, should thermal profiles end up being slightly cooler, the
lower boundary layer may be sufficiently cool enough to have snow as
the pre-dominant precipitation type despite the fact that surface
temperatures may be several degrees above freezing.

As the surface low passes through the far southern portion of our
forecast area, colder air will be pulled in from the north resulting
in all areas seeing snow Sunday evening.  The GFS and Euro continue
to show a good deformation band signal within their data sets this
afternoon.  This deformation band looks to start off in central IN
Sunday afternoon and then many pivot southeastward into Kentucky
late Sunday night and early Sunday morning.  Based on the current
datasets, the best chances for accumulating snows looks to be from
Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this system.
It should be noted that the weather features forcing this system are
located quite a ways from the North American upper air network and
will not be properly sampled until late tonight or Friday morning.
Because of the numerical models sensitivity to initial datasets,
oscillations in the model solutions are still possible.  We
encourage people with travel plans this weekend to keep a close eye
on subsequent forecasts as travel may be negatively impacted late
this weekend.

Quieter weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as we will be in
between weather systems.  High and low temperature forecasts are
particularly hard to nail down at this point as they may be greatly
impacted if we have snow cover.  For now, have stuck close to the
SuperBlend guidance with highs in the mid-upper 20s to the lower 30s.

From midweek on, we will need to keep an eye on another weather
system that will affect our region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  The track and evolution of this system is highly unknown and
may be modulated to an extent by the late weekend system.  For now,
have kept a rain/snow mix chance in for Wednesday with some light
snow possible Wednesday night.  Much colder conditions look likely
as we head to towards the end of the week.  Current guidance
generally gives highs in the 20s, but this could be too optimistic
if a snow pack exists.  Overnight lows in the upper single digits to
lower teens are expected.  However, sub-zero readings will be on the
table if a significant snow pack is realized.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Northwesterly winds will continue tonight in the wake of the cold
front. Gusts will diminish through the evening hours, but wind
speeds will stay up in the 8-12 knot range overnight. Very light
snow showers will be possible at LEX and perhaps SDF overnight.
Ceilings are expected to remain MVFR with fuel alternate at times. They
should begin to lift overnight and become VFR by late morning to
early afternoon tomorrow. Winds will remain out of the northwest to
north tomorrow and be lighter than today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300452
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1152 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1150 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Updated the forecast to expand low chances for light precip in the
form of rain/drizzle or light snow through the overnight hours over
much of the area.  Some of the latest 0Z guidance and high-res model
runs indicate the upper level wave over northern Indiana will drop
south and cause continued light precip over the area through
sunrise.  Will need to watch precip with this wave closely as it
could cause some slick spots for the Friday morning commute as temps
are expected to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s during the
pre-dawn hours.

Issued at 911 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Radar mosaic this evening shows light returns across the region,
including across west central KY. At least some of this is reaching
the ground as Owensboro and Lexington are currently reporting light
rain. Have expanded pops back to the west over the next few hours to
cover this light precipitation. This precip could be light rain with
some snow mixing in. Also, decreased pops to overnight to slight
chance.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Friday Morning?...

Cold front is almost through the eastern CWA with temperatures
already in the upper 30s over some of our southern Indiana counties.
In contrast, SE Kentucky is still in the upper 50s just ahead of the
front. Temperatures will be falling the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Data still supports some isolated to scattered showers
developing mainly along and east of I-65 late this afternoon into
the evening and overnight. This would be ahead of a PV anamoly
dropping out of the mid Mississippi River Valley and correspondent
with a NW surface winds aiding in upslope flow across our far east.
With lapse rates steepening, p-type is expected to transition to
snow this evening. Previous forecast had mentioned a small chance
for some freezing drizzle, and can`t totally rule that out at this
time, however latest data supports saturation up to -7 or -8 C
before temperatures fall below freezing. Will not directly mention
this p-type in the forecast although may allude to the possibility
in other products like the HWO. Also, not expecting snow fall to be
very intense as there isn`t very much (if any) lift through the
saturated layer. Will continue to mention a dusting of snow possible
through the overnight and early morning hours across our east, where
best coverage of snow is likely to be. A few slick spots aren`t out
of the question for the Friday morning commute and will consider a
Special Weather Statement to highlight threats.

Otherwise, lows will drop into the upper 20s tonight, with low
clouds lingering through the first half of Friday under the
inversion. We`ll see some sun by the afternoon hours with temps
staying in the 30s.

Surfac high pressure settles over the by Friday evening, with good
radiational cooling conditions Friday night. This should allow for
lows in the mid teens NE to around 20 most other places.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snows Increasingly Likely Late This Weekend Across
Southern Indiana and Portions of Northern Kentucky...

==================================
Synoptic Scale Overview
==================================

A split flow pattern aloft will be found at the beginning of the
forecast period.  By Sunday, a moderately strong mid-level wave will
drop out of the northern Plains and amplify as it approaches the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will
take place over Arkansas with the newly formed surface low moving
from SW Tennessee into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning.
With cold air in place across the northern half of the forecast
area, a swath of accumulating snows looks increasingly likely.
Further south, near the surface low track, a wintry mix of rain and
snow appears likely...eventually transitioning to all snow by Sunday
night.  The upper air pattern is then forecast to relax a bit,
however, significant amplification is expected to occur by midweek
as waves in the northern and southern stream attempt to phase and
carve out a large/deep trough over the eastern third of the United
States.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Model Trends...

Over the last 24 hours, we have started to see a more definitive
case of model convergence on the evolution of the late weekend storm
system.  All of the 29/12Z guidance has trended colder with regards
to the lower boundary layer temperatures.  The GFS and Euro have led
the trend in the colder solutions, while the NAM and Canadian GEM
have now started trending colder as well.  The NAM is still the
warmest of the models, while the GFS/GEM/Euro are generally the same
as their previous runs.  Noticeably, the Euro and GFS solutions have
continued to show remarkable continuity in their runs, which results
in increasing forecaster confidence on the evolution of this
system.  Given the current datasets and trends, it appears
increasingly likely that accumulating snows will be a threat to
southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky.

The model data continues to exhibit some spread regarding the
mid-late week system as the upper level flow and timing of features
remain uncertain.  However, there appears to be at least some hint
of agreement that another weather system will affect the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

Model Preference...

For this forecast cycle we will be utilizing a blend of the previous
forecast while incorporating the colder solutions from the new
datasets.  The forecast itself remains largely unchanged, but given
the relatively good model agreement, we will be increasing PoPs
for Saturday Night through Monday morning.  As for QPF, a blend of
the GFS/Euro/WPC Guidance will be incorporated.

From midweek onward, have generally stuck closer to the blend of the
29/12Z GFS Ensemble and the 29/00Z Euro ensembles along with
incorporating our previous forecast.

Forecast Confidence...

Forecast confidence on the occurrence of precipitation from Saturday
Night through Monday morning is high given the good model
agreement.  Forecast confidence on the precipitation type is much
lower given the uncertainty in the forecast of lower atmospheric
temperature profiles.  This is especially true across much of
southern Kentucky where low-level warm air will likely keep
precipitation mixed or in plain liquid.  Forecast confidence is
increasing however, that much of southern Indiana and portions far
northern KY will see mostly snow with the late weekend system.

Forecast confidence from midweek onward can be described as
low-moderate in both temperature and precipitation departments.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

A quiet day of weather is expected on Saturday as we wait for the
approach of the late weekend weather system.  The day will likely
start off partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late in
the day.  Highs look to warm into the upper 30s in the north with
lower 40s across the south.

By Saturday night, we expect a band of precipitation to develop out
to our northwest within a large baroclinic zone from the central
Plains into the Midwest.  Moisture is expected to return to the
region during the overnight period with precipitation breaking out
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky very late Saturday
night.  Thermal profiles generally look cold enough for mostly snow,
but a mix of snow and rain may occur down across southern Kentucky.

Precipitation is expected to expand and increase in intensity during
the day on Sunday across the region.  Model proximity soundings and
thermal cross-sections suggest that mainly snow will occur across
southern Indiana and across far northern KY.  Just exactly how far
south the rain/snow line will be is not definitive at this time.
However, incorporating the multi-model consensus, it does appear
that the previous forecast of rain and snow across much of
south-central Kentucky still looks to be likely at this time.
However, should thermal profiles end up being slightly cooler, the
lower boundary layer may be sufficiently cool enough to have snow as
the pre-dominant precipitation type despite the fact that surface
temperatures may be several degrees above freezing.

As the surface low passes through the far southern portion of our
forecast area, colder air will be pulled in from the north resulting
in all areas seeing snow Sunday evening.  The GFS and Euro continue
to show a good deformation band signal within their data sets this
afternoon.  This deformation band looks to start off in central IN
Sunday afternoon and then many pivot southeastward into Kentucky
late Sunday night and early Sunday morning.  Based on the current
datasets, the best chances for accumulating snows looks to be from
Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this system.
It should be noted that the weather features forcing this system are
located quite a ways from the North American upper air network and
will not be properly sampled until late tonight or Friday morning.
Because of the numerical models sensitivity to initial datasets,
oscillations in the model solutions are still possible.  We
encourage people with travel plans this weekend to keep a close eye
on subsequent forecasts as travel may be negatively impacted late
this weekend.

Quieter weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as we will be in
between weather systems.  High and low temperature forecasts are
particularly hard to nail down at this point as they may be greatly
impacted if we have snow cover.  For now, have stuck close to the
SuperBlend guidance with highs in the mid-upper 20s to the lower 30s.

From midweek on, we will need to keep an eye on another weather
system that will affect our region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  The track and evolution of this system is highly unknown and
may be modulated to an extent by the late weekend system.  For now,
have kept a rain/snow mix chance in for Wednesday with some light
snow possible Wednesday night.  Much colder conditions look likely
as we head to towards the end of the week.  Current guidance
generally gives highs in the 20s, but this could be too optimistic
if a snow pack exists.  Overnight lows in the upper single digits to
lower teens are expected.  However, sub-zero readings will be on the
table if a significant snow pack is realized.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Northwesterly winds will continue tonight in the wake of the cold
front. Gusts will diminish through the evening hours, but wind
speeds will stay up in the 8-12 knot range overnight. Very light
snow showers will be possible at LEX and perhaps SDF overnight.
Ceilings are expected to remain MVFR with fuel alternate at times. They
should begin to lift overnight and become VFR by late morning to
early afternoon tomorrow. Winds will remain out of the northwest to
north tomorrow and be lighter than today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300212
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
912 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 911 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Radar mosaic this evening shows light returns across the region,
including across west central KY. At least some of this is reaching
the ground as Owensboro and Lexington are currently reporting light
rain. Have expanded pops back to the west over the next few hours to
cover this light precipitation. This precip could be light rain with
some snow mixing in. Also, decreased pops to overnight to slight
chance.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Friday Morning?...

Cold front is almost through the eastern CWA with temperatures
already in the upper 30s over some of our southern Indiana counties.
In contrast, SE Kentucky is still in the upper 50s just ahead of the
front. Temperatures will be falling the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Data still supports some isolated to scattered showers
developing mainly along and east of I-65 late this afternoon into
the evening and overnight. This would be ahead of a PV anamoly
dropping out of the mid Mississippi River Valley and correspondent
with a NW surface winds aiding in upslope flow across our far east.
With lapse rates steepening, p-type is expected to transition to
snow this evening. Previous forecast had mentioned a small chance
for some freezing drizzle, and can`t totally rule that out at this
time, however latest data supports saturation up to -7 or -8 C
before temperatures fall below freezing. Will not directly mention
this p-type in the forecast although may allude to the possibility
in other products like the HWO. Also, not expecting snow fall to be
very intense as there isn`t very much (if any) lift through the
saturated layer. Will continue to mention a dusting of snow possible
through the overnight and early morning hours across our east, where
best coverage of snow is likely to be. A few slick spots aren`t out
of the question for the Friday morning commute and will consider a
Special Weather Statement to highlight threats.

Otherwise, lows will drop into the upper 20s tonight, with low
clouds lingering through the first half of Friday under the
inversion. We`ll see some sun by the afternoon hours with temps
staying in the 30s.

Surfac high pressure settles over the by Friday evening, with good
radiational cooling conditions Friday night. This should allow for
lows in the mid teens NE to around 20 most other places.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snows Increasingly Likely Late This Weekend Across
Southern Indiana and Portions of Northern Kentucky...

==================================
Synoptic Scale Overview
==================================

A split flow pattern aloft will be found at the beginning of the
forecast period.  By Sunday, a moderately strong mid-level wave will
drop out of the northern Plains and amplify as it approaches the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will
take place over Arkansas with the newly formed surface low moving
from SW Tennessee into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning.
With cold air in place across the northern half of the forecast
area, a swath of accumulating snows looks increasingly likely.
Further south, near the surface low track, a wintry mix of rain and
snow appears likely...eventually transitioning to all snow by Sunday
night.  The upper air pattern is then forecast to relax a bit,
however, significant amplification is expected to occur by midweek
as waves in the northern and southern stream attempt to phase and
carve out a large/deep trough over the eastern third of the United
States.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Model Trends...

Over the last 24 hours, we have started to see a more definitive
case of model convergence on the evolution of the late weekend storm
system.  All of the 29/12Z guidance has trended colder with regards
to the lower boundary layer temperatures.  The GFS and Euro have led
the trend in the colder solutions, while the NAM and Canadian GEM
have now started trending colder as well.  The NAM is still the
warmest of the models, while the GFS/GEM/Euro are generally the same
as their previous runs.  Noticeably, the Euro and GFS solutions have
continued to show remarkable continuity in their runs, which results
in increasing forecaster confidence on the evolution of this
system.  Given the current datasets and trends, it appears
increasingly likely that accumulating snows will be a threat to
southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky.

The model data continues to exhibit some spread regarding the
mid-late week system as the upper level flow and timing of features
remain uncertain.  However, there appears to be at least some hint
of agreement that another weather system will affect the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

Model Preference...

For this forecast cycle we will be utilizing a blend of the previous
forecast while incorporating the colder solutions from the new
datasets.  The forecast itself remains largely unchanged, but given
the relatively good model agreement, we will be increasing PoPs
for Saturday Night through Monday morning.  As for QPF, a blend of
the GFS/Euro/WPC Guidance will be incorporated.

From midweek onward, have generally stuck closer to the blend of the
29/12Z GFS Ensemble and the 29/00Z Euro ensembles along with
incorporating our previous forecast.

Forecast Confidence...

Forecast confidence on the occurrence of precipitation from Saturday
Night through Monday morning is high given the good model
agreement.  Forecast confidence on the precipitation type is much
lower given the uncertainty in the forecast of lower atmospheric
temperature profiles.  This is especially true across much of
southern Kentucky where low-level warm air will likely keep
precipitation mixed or in plain liquid.  Forecast confidence is
increasing however, that much of southern Indiana and portions far
northern KY will see mostly snow with the late weekend system.

Forecast confidence from midweek onward can be described as
low-moderate in both temperature and precipitation departments.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

A quiet day of weather is expected on Saturday as we wait for the
approach of the late weekend weather system.  The day will likely
start off partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late in
the day.  Highs look to warm into the upper 30s in the north with
lower 40s across the south.

By Saturday night, we expect a band of precipitation to develop out
to our northwest within a large baroclinic zone from the central
Plains into the Midwest.  Moisture is expected to return to the
region during the overnight period with precipitation breaking out
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky very late Saturday
night.  Thermal profiles generally look cold enough for mostly snow,
but a mix of snow and rain may occur down across southern Kentucky.

Precipitation is expected to expand and increase in intensity during
the day on Sunday across the region.  Model proximity soundings and
thermal cross-sections suggest that mainly snow will occur across
southern Indiana and across far northern KY.  Just exactly how far
south the rain/snow line will be is not definitive at this time.
However, incorporating the multi-model consensus, it does appear
that the previous forecast of rain and snow across much of
south-central Kentucky still looks to be likely at this time.
However, should thermal profiles end up being slightly cooler, the
lower boundary layer may be sufficiently cool enough to have snow as
the pre-dominant precipitation type despite the fact that surface
temperatures may be several degrees above freezing.

As the surface low passes through the far southern portion of our
forecast area, colder air will be pulled in from the north resulting
in all areas seeing snow Sunday evening.  The GFS and Euro continue
to show a good deformation band signal within their data sets this
afternoon.  This deformation band looks to start off in central IN
Sunday afternoon and then many pivot southeastward into Kentucky
late Sunday night and early Sunday morning.  Based on the current
datasets, the best chances for accumulating snows looks to be from
Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this system.
It should be noted that the weather features forcing this system are
located quite a ways from the North American upper air network and
will not be properly sampled until late tonight or Friday morning.
Because of the numerical models sensitivity to initial datasets,
oscillations in the model solutions are still possible.  We
encourage people with travel plans this weekend to keep a close eye
on subsequent forecasts as travel may be negatively impacted late
this weekend.

Quieter weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as we will be in
between weather systems.  High and low temperature forecasts are
particularly hard to nail down at this point as they may be greatly
impacted if we have snow cover.  For now, have stuck close to the
SuperBlend guidance with highs in the mid-upper 20s to the lower 30s.

From midweek on, we will need to keep an eye on another weather
system that will affect our region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  The track and evolution of this system is highly unknown and
may be modulated to an extent by the late weekend system.  For now,
have kept a rain/snow mix chance in for Wednesday with some light
snow possible Wednesday night.  Much colder conditions look likely
as we head to towards the end of the week.  Current guidance
generally gives highs in the 20s, but this could be too optimistic
if a snow pack exists.  Overnight lows in the upper single digits to
lower teens are expected.  However, sub-zero readings will be on the
table if a significant snow pack is realized.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Northwesterly winds will continue tonight in the wake of the cold
front. Gusts will diminish through the evening hours, but wind
speeds will stay up in the 8-12 knot range overnight. Very light
snow showers will be possible at LEX and perhaps SDF overnight.
Ceilings are expected to remain MVFR with fuel alternate at times. They
should begin to lift overnight and become VFR by late morning to
early afternoon tomorrow. Winds will remain out of the northwest to
north tomorrow and be lighter than today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300212
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
912 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 911 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Radar mosaic this evening shows light returns across the region,
including across west central KY. At least some of this is reaching
the ground as Owensboro and Lexington are currently reporting light
rain. Have expanded pops back to the west over the next few hours to
cover this light precipitation. This precip could be light rain with
some snow mixing in. Also, decreased pops to overnight to slight
chance.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Friday Morning?...

Cold front is almost through the eastern CWA with temperatures
already in the upper 30s over some of our southern Indiana counties.
In contrast, SE Kentucky is still in the upper 50s just ahead of the
front. Temperatures will be falling the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Data still supports some isolated to scattered showers
developing mainly along and east of I-65 late this afternoon into
the evening and overnight. This would be ahead of a PV anamoly
dropping out of the mid Mississippi River Valley and correspondent
with a NW surface winds aiding in upslope flow across our far east.
With lapse rates steepening, p-type is expected to transition to
snow this evening. Previous forecast had mentioned a small chance
for some freezing drizzle, and can`t totally rule that out at this
time, however latest data supports saturation up to -7 or -8 C
before temperatures fall below freezing. Will not directly mention
this p-type in the forecast although may allude to the possibility
in other products like the HWO. Also, not expecting snow fall to be
very intense as there isn`t very much (if any) lift through the
saturated layer. Will continue to mention a dusting of snow possible
through the overnight and early morning hours across our east, where
best coverage of snow is likely to be. A few slick spots aren`t out
of the question for the Friday morning commute and will consider a
Special Weather Statement to highlight threats.

Otherwise, lows will drop into the upper 20s tonight, with low
clouds lingering through the first half of Friday under the
inversion. We`ll see some sun by the afternoon hours with temps
staying in the 30s.

Surfac high pressure settles over the by Friday evening, with good
radiational cooling conditions Friday night. This should allow for
lows in the mid teens NE to around 20 most other places.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snows Increasingly Likely Late This Weekend Across
Southern Indiana and Portions of Northern Kentucky...

==================================
Synoptic Scale Overview
==================================

A split flow pattern aloft will be found at the beginning of the
forecast period.  By Sunday, a moderately strong mid-level wave will
drop out of the northern Plains and amplify as it approaches the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will
take place over Arkansas with the newly formed surface low moving
from SW Tennessee into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning.
With cold air in place across the northern half of the forecast
area, a swath of accumulating snows looks increasingly likely.
Further south, near the surface low track, a wintry mix of rain and
snow appears likely...eventually transitioning to all snow by Sunday
night.  The upper air pattern is then forecast to relax a bit,
however, significant amplification is expected to occur by midweek
as waves in the northern and southern stream attempt to phase and
carve out a large/deep trough over the eastern third of the United
States.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Model Trends...

Over the last 24 hours, we have started to see a more definitive
case of model convergence on the evolution of the late weekend storm
system.  All of the 29/12Z guidance has trended colder with regards
to the lower boundary layer temperatures.  The GFS and Euro have led
the trend in the colder solutions, while the NAM and Canadian GEM
have now started trending colder as well.  The NAM is still the
warmest of the models, while the GFS/GEM/Euro are generally the same
as their previous runs.  Noticeably, the Euro and GFS solutions have
continued to show remarkable continuity in their runs, which results
in increasing forecaster confidence on the evolution of this
system.  Given the current datasets and trends, it appears
increasingly likely that accumulating snows will be a threat to
southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky.

The model data continues to exhibit some spread regarding the
mid-late week system as the upper level flow and timing of features
remain uncertain.  However, there appears to be at least some hint
of agreement that another weather system will affect the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

Model Preference...

For this forecast cycle we will be utilizing a blend of the previous
forecast while incorporating the colder solutions from the new
datasets.  The forecast itself remains largely unchanged, but given
the relatively good model agreement, we will be increasing PoPs
for Saturday Night through Monday morning.  As for QPF, a blend of
the GFS/Euro/WPC Guidance will be incorporated.

From midweek onward, have generally stuck closer to the blend of the
29/12Z GFS Ensemble and the 29/00Z Euro ensembles along with
incorporating our previous forecast.

Forecast Confidence...

Forecast confidence on the occurrence of precipitation from Saturday
Night through Monday morning is high given the good model
agreement.  Forecast confidence on the precipitation type is much
lower given the uncertainty in the forecast of lower atmospheric
temperature profiles.  This is especially true across much of
southern Kentucky where low-level warm air will likely keep
precipitation mixed or in plain liquid.  Forecast confidence is
increasing however, that much of southern Indiana and portions far
northern KY will see mostly snow with the late weekend system.

Forecast confidence from midweek onward can be described as
low-moderate in both temperature and precipitation departments.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

A quiet day of weather is expected on Saturday as we wait for the
approach of the late weekend weather system.  The day will likely
start off partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late in
the day.  Highs look to warm into the upper 30s in the north with
lower 40s across the south.

By Saturday night, we expect a band of precipitation to develop out
to our northwest within a large baroclinic zone from the central
Plains into the Midwest.  Moisture is expected to return to the
region during the overnight period with precipitation breaking out
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky very late Saturday
night.  Thermal profiles generally look cold enough for mostly snow,
but a mix of snow and rain may occur down across southern Kentucky.

Precipitation is expected to expand and increase in intensity during
the day on Sunday across the region.  Model proximity soundings and
thermal cross-sections suggest that mainly snow will occur across
southern Indiana and across far northern KY.  Just exactly how far
south the rain/snow line will be is not definitive at this time.
However, incorporating the multi-model consensus, it does appear
that the previous forecast of rain and snow across much of
south-central Kentucky still looks to be likely at this time.
However, should thermal profiles end up being slightly cooler, the
lower boundary layer may be sufficiently cool enough to have snow as
the pre-dominant precipitation type despite the fact that surface
temperatures may be several degrees above freezing.

As the surface low passes through the far southern portion of our
forecast area, colder air will be pulled in from the north resulting
in all areas seeing snow Sunday evening.  The GFS and Euro continue
to show a good deformation band signal within their data sets this
afternoon.  This deformation band looks to start off in central IN
Sunday afternoon and then many pivot southeastward into Kentucky
late Sunday night and early Sunday morning.  Based on the current
datasets, the best chances for accumulating snows looks to be from
Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this system.
It should be noted that the weather features forcing this system are
located quite a ways from the North American upper air network and
will not be properly sampled until late tonight or Friday morning.
Because of the numerical models sensitivity to initial datasets,
oscillations in the model solutions are still possible.  We
encourage people with travel plans this weekend to keep a close eye
on subsequent forecasts as travel may be negatively impacted late
this weekend.

Quieter weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as we will be in
between weather systems.  High and low temperature forecasts are
particularly hard to nail down at this point as they may be greatly
impacted if we have snow cover.  For now, have stuck close to the
SuperBlend guidance with highs in the mid-upper 20s to the lower 30s.

From midweek on, we will need to keep an eye on another weather
system that will affect our region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  The track and evolution of this system is highly unknown and
may be modulated to an extent by the late weekend system.  For now,
have kept a rain/snow mix chance in for Wednesday with some light
snow possible Wednesday night.  Much colder conditions look likely
as we head to towards the end of the week.  Current guidance
generally gives highs in the 20s, but this could be too optimistic
if a snow pack exists.  Overnight lows in the upper single digits to
lower teens are expected.  However, sub-zero readings will be on the
table if a significant snow pack is realized.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Northwesterly winds will continue tonight in the wake of the cold
front. Gusts will diminish through the evening hours, but wind
speeds will stay up in the 8-12 knot range overnight. Very light
snow showers will be possible at LEX and perhaps SDF overnight.
Ceilings are expected to remain MVFR with fuel alternate at times. They
should begin to lift overnight and become VFR by late morning to
early afternoon tomorrow. Winds will remain out of the northwest to
north tomorrow and be lighter than today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292247
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
547 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Friday Morning?...

Cold front is almost through the eastern CWA with temperatures
already in the upper 30s over some of our southern Indiana counties.
In contrast, SE Kentucky is still in the upper 50s just ahead of the
front. Temperatures will be falling the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Data still supports some isolated to scattered showers
developing mainly along and east of I-65 late this afternoon into
the evening and overnight. This would be ahead of a PV anamoly
dropping out of the mid Mississippi River Valley and correspondent
with a NW surface winds aiding in upslope flow across our far east.
With lapse rates steepening, p-type is expected to transition to
snow this evening. Previous forecast had mentioned a small chance
for some freezing drizzle, and can`t totally rule that out at this
time, however latest data supports saturation up to -7 or -8 C
before temperatures fall below freezing. Will not directly mention
this p-type in the forecast although may allude to the possibility
in other products like the HWO. Also, not expecting snow fall to be
very intense as there isn`t very much (if any) lift through the
saturated layer. Will continue to mention a dusting of snow possible
through the overnight and early morning hours across our east, where
best coverage of snow is likely to be. A few slick spots aren`t out
of the question for the Friday morning commute and will consider a
Special Weather Statement to highlight threats.

Otherwise, lows will drop into the upper 20s tonight, with low
clouds lingering through the first half of Friday under the
inversion. We`ll see some sun by the afternoon hours with temps
staying in the 30s.

Surfac high pressure settles over the by Friday evening, with good
radiational cooling conditions Friday night. This should allow for
lows in the mid teens NE to around 20 most other places.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snows Increasingly Likely Late This Weekend Across
Southern Indiana and Portions of Northern Kentucky...

==================================
Synoptic Scale Overview
==================================

A split flow pattern aloft will be found at the beginning of the
forecast period.  By Sunday, a moderately strong mid-level wave will
drop out of the northern Plains and amplify as it approaches the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will
take place over Arkansas with the newly formed surface low moving
from SW Tennessee into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning.
With cold air in place across the northern half of the forecast
area, a swath of accumulating snows looks increasingly likely.
Further south, near the surface low track, a wintry mix of rain and
snow appears likely...eventually transitioning to all snow by Sunday
night.  The upper air pattern is then forecast to relax a bit,
however, significant amplification is expected to occur by midweek
as waves in the northern and southern stream attempt to phase and
carve out a large/deep trough over the eastern third of the United
States.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Model Trends...

Over the last 24 hours, we have started to see a more definitive
case of model convergence on the evolution of the late weekend storm
system.  All of the 29/12Z guidance has trended colder with regards
to the lower boundary layer temperatures.  The GFS and Euro have led
the trend in the colder solutions, while the NAM and Canadian GEM
have now started trending colder as well.  The NAM is still the
warmest of the models, while the GFS/GEM/Euro are generally the same
as their previous runs.  Noticeably, the Euro and GFS solutions have
continued to show remarkable continuity in their runs, which results
in increasing forecaster confidence on the evolution of this
system.  Given the current datasets and trends, it appears
increasingly likely that accumulating snows will be a threat to
southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky.

The model data continues to exhibit some spread regarding the
mid-late week system as the upper level flow and timing of features
remain uncertain.  However, there appears to be at least some hint
of agreement that another weather system will affect the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

Model Preference...

For this forecast cycle we will be utilizing a blend of the previous
forecast while incorporating the colder solutions from the new
datasets.  The forecast itself remains largely unchanged, but given
the relatively good model agreement, we will be increasing PoPs
for Saturday Night through Monday morning.  As for QPF, a blend of
the GFS/Euro/WPC Guidance will be incorporated.

From midweek onward, have generally stuck closer to the blend of the
29/12Z GFS Ensemble and the 29/00Z Euro ensembles along with
incorporating our previous forecast.

Forecast Confidence...

Forecast confidence on the occurrence of precipitation from Saturday
Night through Monday morning is high given the good model
agreement.  Forecast confidence on the precipitation type is much
lower given the uncertainty in the forecast of lower atmospheric
temperature profiles.  This is especially true across much of
southern Kentucky where low-level warm air will likely keep
precipitation mixed or in plain liquid.  Forecast confidence is
increasing however, that much of southern Indiana and portions far
northern KY will see mostly snow with the late weekend system.

Forecast confidence from midweek onward can be described as
low-moderate in both temperature and precipitation departments.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

A quiet day of weather is expected on Saturday as we wait for the
approach of the late weekend weather system.  The day will likely
start off partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late in
the day.  Highs look to warm into the upper 30s in the north with
lower 40s across the south.

By Saturday night, we expect a band of precipitation to develop out
to our northwest within a large baroclinic zone from the central
Plains into the Midwest.  Moisture is expected to return to the
region during the overnight period with precipitation breaking out
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky very late Saturday
night.  Thermal profiles generally look cold enough for mostly snow,
but a mix of snow and rain may occur down across southern Kentucky.

Precipitation is expected to expand and increase in intensity during
the day on Sunday across the region.  Model proximity soundings and
thermal cross-sections suggest that mainly snow will occur across
southern Indiana and across far northern KY.  Just exactly how far
south the rain/snow line will be is not definitive at this time.
However, incorporating the multi-model consensus, it does appear
that the previous forecast of rain and snow across much of
south-central Kentucky still looks to be likely at this time.
However, should thermal profiles end up being slightly cooler, the
lower boundary layer may be sufficiently cool enough to have snow as
the pre-dominant precipitation type despite the fact that surface
temperatures may be several degrees above freezing.

As the surface low passes through the far southern portion of our
forecast area, colder air will be pulled in from the north resulting
in all areas seeing snow Sunday evening.  The GFS and Euro continue
to show a good deformation band signal within their data sets this
afternoon.  This deformation band looks to start off in central IN
Sunday afternoon and then many pivot southeastward into Kentucky
late Sunday night and early Sunday morning.  Based on the current
datasets, the best chances for accumulating snows looks to be from
Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this system.
It should be noted that the weather features forcing this system are
located quite a ways from the North American upper air network and
will not be properly sampled until late tonight or Friday morning.
Because of the numerical models sensitivity to initial datasets,
oscillations in the model solutions are still possible.  We
encourage people with travel plans this weekend to keep a close eye
on subsequent forecasts as travel may be negatively impacted late
this weekend.

Quieter weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as we will be in
between weather systems.  High and low temperature forecasts are
particularly hard to nail down at this point as they may be greatly
impacted if we have snow cover.  For now, have stuck close to the
SuperBlend guidance with highs in the mid-upper 20s to the lower 30s.

From midweek on, we will need to keep an eye on another weather
system that will affect our region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  The track and evolution of this system is highly unknown and
may be modulated to an extent by the late weekend system.  For now,
have kept a rain/snow mix chance in for Wednesday with some light
snow possible Wednesday night.  Much colder conditions look likely
as we head to towards the end of the week.  Current guidance
generally gives highs in the 20s, but this could be too optimistic
if a snow pack exists.  Overnight lows in the upper single digits to
lower teens are expected.  However, sub-zero readings will be on the
table if a significant snow pack is realized.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Northwesterly winds will continue tonight in the wake of the cold
front. Gusts will diminish through the evening hours, but wind
speeds will stay up in the 8-12 knot range overnight. Very light
snow showers will be possible at LEX and perhaps SDF overnight.
Ceilings are expected to remain MVFR with fuel alternate at times. They
should begin to lift overnight and become VFR by late morning to
early afternoon tomorrow. Winds will remain out of the northwest to
north tomorrow and be lighter than today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292247
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
547 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Friday Morning?...

Cold front is almost through the eastern CWA with temperatures
already in the upper 30s over some of our southern Indiana counties.
In contrast, SE Kentucky is still in the upper 50s just ahead of the
front. Temperatures will be falling the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Data still supports some isolated to scattered showers
developing mainly along and east of I-65 late this afternoon into
the evening and overnight. This would be ahead of a PV anamoly
dropping out of the mid Mississippi River Valley and correspondent
with a NW surface winds aiding in upslope flow across our far east.
With lapse rates steepening, p-type is expected to transition to
snow this evening. Previous forecast had mentioned a small chance
for some freezing drizzle, and can`t totally rule that out at this
time, however latest data supports saturation up to -7 or -8 C
before temperatures fall below freezing. Will not directly mention
this p-type in the forecast although may allude to the possibility
in other products like the HWO. Also, not expecting snow fall to be
very intense as there isn`t very much (if any) lift through the
saturated layer. Will continue to mention a dusting of snow possible
through the overnight and early morning hours across our east, where
best coverage of snow is likely to be. A few slick spots aren`t out
of the question for the Friday morning commute and will consider a
Special Weather Statement to highlight threats.

Otherwise, lows will drop into the upper 20s tonight, with low
clouds lingering through the first half of Friday under the
inversion. We`ll see some sun by the afternoon hours with temps
staying in the 30s.

Surfac high pressure settles over the by Friday evening, with good
radiational cooling conditions Friday night. This should allow for
lows in the mid teens NE to around 20 most other places.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snows Increasingly Likely Late This Weekend Across
Southern Indiana and Portions of Northern Kentucky...

==================================
Synoptic Scale Overview
==================================

A split flow pattern aloft will be found at the beginning of the
forecast period.  By Sunday, a moderately strong mid-level wave will
drop out of the northern Plains and amplify as it approaches the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will
take place over Arkansas with the newly formed surface low moving
from SW Tennessee into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning.
With cold air in place across the northern half of the forecast
area, a swath of accumulating snows looks increasingly likely.
Further south, near the surface low track, a wintry mix of rain and
snow appears likely...eventually transitioning to all snow by Sunday
night.  The upper air pattern is then forecast to relax a bit,
however, significant amplification is expected to occur by midweek
as waves in the northern and southern stream attempt to phase and
carve out a large/deep trough over the eastern third of the United
States.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Model Trends...

Over the last 24 hours, we have started to see a more definitive
case of model convergence on the evolution of the late weekend storm
system.  All of the 29/12Z guidance has trended colder with regards
to the lower boundary layer temperatures.  The GFS and Euro have led
the trend in the colder solutions, while the NAM and Canadian GEM
have now started trending colder as well.  The NAM is still the
warmest of the models, while the GFS/GEM/Euro are generally the same
as their previous runs.  Noticeably, the Euro and GFS solutions have
continued to show remarkable continuity in their runs, which results
in increasing forecaster confidence on the evolution of this
system.  Given the current datasets and trends, it appears
increasingly likely that accumulating snows will be a threat to
southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky.

The model data continues to exhibit some spread regarding the
mid-late week system as the upper level flow and timing of features
remain uncertain.  However, there appears to be at least some hint
of agreement that another weather system will affect the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

Model Preference...

For this forecast cycle we will be utilizing a blend of the previous
forecast while incorporating the colder solutions from the new
datasets.  The forecast itself remains largely unchanged, but given
the relatively good model agreement, we will be increasing PoPs
for Saturday Night through Monday morning.  As for QPF, a blend of
the GFS/Euro/WPC Guidance will be incorporated.

From midweek onward, have generally stuck closer to the blend of the
29/12Z GFS Ensemble and the 29/00Z Euro ensembles along with
incorporating our previous forecast.

Forecast Confidence...

Forecast confidence on the occurrence of precipitation from Saturday
Night through Monday morning is high given the good model
agreement.  Forecast confidence on the precipitation type is much
lower given the uncertainty in the forecast of lower atmospheric
temperature profiles.  This is especially true across much of
southern Kentucky where low-level warm air will likely keep
precipitation mixed or in plain liquid.  Forecast confidence is
increasing however, that much of southern Indiana and portions far
northern KY will see mostly snow with the late weekend system.

Forecast confidence from midweek onward can be described as
low-moderate in both temperature and precipitation departments.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

A quiet day of weather is expected on Saturday as we wait for the
approach of the late weekend weather system.  The day will likely
start off partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late in
the day.  Highs look to warm into the upper 30s in the north with
lower 40s across the south.

By Saturday night, we expect a band of precipitation to develop out
to our northwest within a large baroclinic zone from the central
Plains into the Midwest.  Moisture is expected to return to the
region during the overnight period with precipitation breaking out
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky very late Saturday
night.  Thermal profiles generally look cold enough for mostly snow,
but a mix of snow and rain may occur down across southern Kentucky.

Precipitation is expected to expand and increase in intensity during
the day on Sunday across the region.  Model proximity soundings and
thermal cross-sections suggest that mainly snow will occur across
southern Indiana and across far northern KY.  Just exactly how far
south the rain/snow line will be is not definitive at this time.
However, incorporating the multi-model consensus, it does appear
that the previous forecast of rain and snow across much of
south-central Kentucky still looks to be likely at this time.
However, should thermal profiles end up being slightly cooler, the
lower boundary layer may be sufficiently cool enough to have snow as
the pre-dominant precipitation type despite the fact that surface
temperatures may be several degrees above freezing.

As the surface low passes through the far southern portion of our
forecast area, colder air will be pulled in from the north resulting
in all areas seeing snow Sunday evening.  The GFS and Euro continue
to show a good deformation band signal within their data sets this
afternoon.  This deformation band looks to start off in central IN
Sunday afternoon and then many pivot southeastward into Kentucky
late Sunday night and early Sunday morning.  Based on the current
datasets, the best chances for accumulating snows looks to be from
Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this system.
It should be noted that the weather features forcing this system are
located quite a ways from the North American upper air network and
will not be properly sampled until late tonight or Friday morning.
Because of the numerical models sensitivity to initial datasets,
oscillations in the model solutions are still possible.  We
encourage people with travel plans this weekend to keep a close eye
on subsequent forecasts as travel may be negatively impacted late
this weekend.

Quieter weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as we will be in
between weather systems.  High and low temperature forecasts are
particularly hard to nail down at this point as they may be greatly
impacted if we have snow cover.  For now, have stuck close to the
SuperBlend guidance with highs in the mid-upper 20s to the lower 30s.

From midweek on, we will need to keep an eye on another weather
system that will affect our region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  The track and evolution of this system is highly unknown and
may be modulated to an extent by the late weekend system.  For now,
have kept a rain/snow mix chance in for Wednesday with some light
snow possible Wednesday night.  Much colder conditions look likely
as we head to towards the end of the week.  Current guidance
generally gives highs in the 20s, but this could be too optimistic
if a snow pack exists.  Overnight lows in the upper single digits to
lower teens are expected.  However, sub-zero readings will be on the
table if a significant snow pack is realized.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Northwesterly winds will continue tonight in the wake of the cold
front. Gusts will diminish through the evening hours, but wind
speeds will stay up in the 8-12 knot range overnight. Very light
snow showers will be possible at LEX and perhaps SDF overnight.
Ceilings are expected to remain MVFR with fuel alternate at times. They
should begin to lift overnight and become VFR by late morning to
early afternoon tomorrow. Winds will remain out of the northwest to
north tomorrow and be lighter than today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292102
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
402 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Friday Morning?...

Cold front is almost through the eastern CWA with temperatures
already in the upper 30s over some of our southern Indiana counties.
In contrast, SE Kentucky is still in the upper 50s just ahead of the
front. Temperatures will be falling the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Data still supports some isolated to scattered showers
developing mainly along and east of I-65 late this afternoon into
the evening and overnight. This would be ahead of a PV anamoly
dropping out of the mid Mississippi River Valley and correspondent
with a NW surface winds aiding in upslope flow across our far east.
With lapse rates steepening, p-type is expected to transition to
snow this evening. Previous forecast had mentioned a small chance
for some freezing drizzle, and can`t totally rule that out at this
time, however latest data supports saturation up to -7 or -8 C
before temperatures fall below freezing. Will not directly mention
this p-type in the forecast although may allude to the possibility
in other products like the HWO. Also, not expecting snow fall to be
very intense as there isn`t very much (if any) lift through the
saturated layer. Will continue to mention a dusting of snow possible
through the overnight and early morning hours across our east, where
best coverage of snow is likely to be. A few slick spots aren`t out
of the question for the Friday morning commute and will consider a
Special Weather Statement to highlight threats.

Otherwise, lows will drop into the upper 20s tonight, with low
clouds lingering through the first half of Friday under the
inversion. We`ll see some sun by the afternoon hours with temps
staying in the 30s.

Surfac high pressure settles over the by Friday evening, with good
radiational cooling conditions Friday night. This should allow for
lows in the mid teens NE to around 20 most other places.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snows Increasingly Likely Late This Weekend Across
Southern Indiana and Portions of Northern Kentucky...

==================================
Synoptic Scale Overview
==================================

A split flow pattern aloft will be found at the beginning of the
forecast period.  By Sunday, a moderately strong mid-level wave will
drop out of the northern Plains and amplify as it approaches the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will
take place over Arkansas with the newly formed surface low moving
from SW Tennessee into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning.
With cold air in place across the northern half of the forecast
area, a swath of accumulating snows looks increasingly likely.
Further south, near the surface low track, a wintry mix of rain and
snow appears likely...eventually transitioning to all snow by Sunday
night.  The upper air pattern is then forecast to relax a bit,
however, significant amplification is expected to occur by midweek
as waves in the northern and southern stream attempt to phase and
carve out a large/deep trough over the eastern third of the United
States.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Model Trends...

Over the last 24 hours, we have started to see a more definitive
case of model convergence on the evolution of the late weekend storm
system.  All of the 29/12Z guidance has trended colder with regards
to the lower boundary layer temperatures.  The GFS and Euro have led
the trend in the colder solutions, while the NAM and Canadian GEM
have now started trending colder as well.  The NAM is still the
warmest of the models, while the GFS/GEM/Euro are generally the same
as their previous runs.  Noticeably, the Euro and GFS solutions have
continued to show remarkable continuity in their runs, which results
in increasing forecaster confidence on the evolution of this
system.  Given the current datasets and trends, it appears
increasingly likely that accumulating snows will be a threat to
southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky.

The model data continues to exhibit some spread regarding the
mid-late week system as the upper level flow and timing of features
remain uncertain.  However, there appears to be at least some hint
of agreement that another weather system will affect the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

Model Preference...

For this forecast cycle we will be utilizing a blend of the previous
forecast while incorporating the colder solutions from the new
datasets.  The forecast itself remains largely unchanged, but given
the relatively good model agreement, we will be increasing PoPs
for Saturday Night through Monday morning.  As for QPF, a blend of
the GFS/Euro/WPC Guidance will be incorporated.

From midweek onward, have generally stuck closer to the blend of the
29/12Z GFS Ensemble and the 29/00Z Euro ensembles along with
incorporating our previous forecast.

Forecast Confidence...

Forecast confidence on the occurrence of precipitation from Saturday
Night through Monday morning is high given the good model
agreement.  Forecast confidence on the precipitation type is much
lower given the uncertainty in the forecast of lower atmospheric
temperature profiles.  This is especially true across much of
southern Kentucky where low-level warm air will likely keep
precipitation mixed or in plain liquid.  Forecast confidence is
increasing however, that much of southern Indiana and portions far
northern KY will see mostly snow with the late weekend system.

Forecast confidence from midweek onward can be described as
low-moderate in both temperature and precipitation departments.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

A quiet day of weather is expected on Saturday as we wait for the
approach of the late weekend weather system.  The day will likely
start off partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late in
the day.  Highs look to warm into the upper 30s in the north with
lower 40s across the south.

By Saturday night, we expect a band of precipitation to develop out
to our northwest within a large baroclinic zone from the central
Plains into the Midwest.  Moisture is expected to return to the
region during the overnight period with precipitation breaking out
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky very late Saturday
night.  Thermal profiles generally look cold enough for mostly snow,
but a mix of snow and rain may occur down across southern Kentucky.

Precipitation is expected to expand and increase in intensity during
the day on Sunday across the region.  Model proximity soundings and
thermal cross-sections suggest that mainly snow will occur across
southern Indiana and across far northern KY.  Just exactly how far
south the rain/snow line will be is not definitive at this time.
However, incorporating the multi-model consensus, it does appear
that the previous forecast of rain and snow across much of
south-central Kentucky still looks to be likely at this time.
However, should thermal profiles end up being slightly cooler, the
lower boundary layer may be sufficiently cool enough to have snow as
the pre-dominant precipitation type despite the fact that surface
temperatures may be several degrees above freezing.

As the surface low passes through the far southern portion of our
forecast area, colder air will be pulled in from the north resulting
in all areas seeing snow Sunday evening.  The GFS and Euro continue
to show a good deformation band signal within their data sets this
afternoon.  This deformation band looks to start off in central IN
Sunday afternoon and then many pivot southeastward into Kentucky
late Sunday night and early Sunday morning.  Based on the current
datasets, the best chances for accumulating snows looks to be from
Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this system.
It should be noted that the weather features forcing this system are
located quite a ways from the North American upper air network and
will not be properly sampled until late tonight or Friday morning.
Because of the numerical models sensitivity to initial datasets,
oscillations in the model solutions are still possible.  We
encourage people with travel plans this weekend to keep a close eye
on subsequent forecasts as travel may be negatively impacted late
this weekend.

Quieter weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as we will be in
between weather systems.  High and low temperature forecasts are
particularly hard to nail down at this point as they may be greatly
impacted if we have snow cover.  For now, have stuck close to the
SuperBlend guidance with highs in the mid-upper 20s to the lower 30s.

From midweek on, we will need to keep an eye on another weather
system that will affect our region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  The track and evolution of this system is highly unknown and
may be modulated to an extent by the late weekend system.  For now,
have kept a rain/snow mix chance in for Wednesday with some light
snow possible Wednesday night.  Much colder conditions look likely
as we head to towards the end of the week.  Current guidance
generally gives highs in the 20s, but this could be too optimistic
if a snow pack exists.  Overnight lows in the upper single digits to
lower teens are expected.  However, sub-zero readings will be on the
table if a significant snow pack is realized.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

A cold front will quickly slide through the TAF sites this
afternoon, with SW winds veering to WNW then NW through the
afternoon and evening. Expect sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph,
occasionally gusting up around 35 mph during this time. As we move
into mid afternoon, an upper disturbance combined with low level
moisture may be enough to squeeze out a few showers. Any
precipitation should be light so doubt vis restrictions will occur.
Will put VCSH in TAFs just in case.

Otherwise, ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR range very
quickly, with ceilings expected to be below fuel-alternate by late
afternoon at SDF/LEX.

Low ceilings should persist fur much of the night with showers
changing to snow showers at SDF/LEX. Winds will continue to veer to
NW and slacken. A return to higher MVFR or even VFR is possible by
late morning, although there is some question as to whether low level
moisture will still be trapped under the inversion.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292102
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
402 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...A Few Slick Spots Friday Morning?...

Cold front is almost through the eastern CWA with temperatures
already in the upper 30s over some of our southern Indiana counties.
In contrast, SE Kentucky is still in the upper 50s just ahead of the
front. Temperatures will be falling the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Data still supports some isolated to scattered showers
developing mainly along and east of I-65 late this afternoon into
the evening and overnight. This would be ahead of a PV anamoly
dropping out of the mid Mississippi River Valley and correspondent
with a NW surface winds aiding in upslope flow across our far east.
With lapse rates steepening, p-type is expected to transition to
snow this evening. Previous forecast had mentioned a small chance
for some freezing drizzle, and can`t totally rule that out at this
time, however latest data supports saturation up to -7 or -8 C
before temperatures fall below freezing. Will not directly mention
this p-type in the forecast although may allude to the possibility
in other products like the HWO. Also, not expecting snow fall to be
very intense as there isn`t very much (if any) lift through the
saturated layer. Will continue to mention a dusting of snow possible
through the overnight and early morning hours across our east, where
best coverage of snow is likely to be. A few slick spots aren`t out
of the question for the Friday morning commute and will consider a
Special Weather Statement to highlight threats.

Otherwise, lows will drop into the upper 20s tonight, with low
clouds lingering through the first half of Friday under the
inversion. We`ll see some sun by the afternoon hours with temps
staying in the 30s.

Surfac high pressure settles over the by Friday evening, with good
radiational cooling conditions Friday night. This should allow for
lows in the mid teens NE to around 20 most other places.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snows Increasingly Likely Late This Weekend Across
Southern Indiana and Portions of Northern Kentucky...

==================================
Synoptic Scale Overview
==================================

A split flow pattern aloft will be found at the beginning of the
forecast period.  By Sunday, a moderately strong mid-level wave will
drop out of the northern Plains and amplify as it approaches the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will
take place over Arkansas with the newly formed surface low moving
from SW Tennessee into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning.
With cold air in place across the northern half of the forecast
area, a swath of accumulating snows looks increasingly likely.
Further south, near the surface low track, a wintry mix of rain and
snow appears likely...eventually transitioning to all snow by Sunday
night.  The upper air pattern is then forecast to relax a bit,
however, significant amplification is expected to occur by midweek
as waves in the northern and southern stream attempt to phase and
carve out a large/deep trough over the eastern third of the United
States.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Model Trends...

Over the last 24 hours, we have started to see a more definitive
case of model convergence on the evolution of the late weekend storm
system.  All of the 29/12Z guidance has trended colder with regards
to the lower boundary layer temperatures.  The GFS and Euro have led
the trend in the colder solutions, while the NAM and Canadian GEM
have now started trending colder as well.  The NAM is still the
warmest of the models, while the GFS/GEM/Euro are generally the same
as their previous runs.  Noticeably, the Euro and GFS solutions have
continued to show remarkable continuity in their runs, which results
in increasing forecaster confidence on the evolution of this
system.  Given the current datasets and trends, it appears
increasingly likely that accumulating snows will be a threat to
southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky.

The model data continues to exhibit some spread regarding the
mid-late week system as the upper level flow and timing of features
remain uncertain.  However, there appears to be at least some hint
of agreement that another weather system will affect the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

Model Preference...

For this forecast cycle we will be utilizing a blend of the previous
forecast while incorporating the colder solutions from the new
datasets.  The forecast itself remains largely unchanged, but given
the relatively good model agreement, we will be increasing PoPs
for Saturday Night through Monday morning.  As for QPF, a blend of
the GFS/Euro/WPC Guidance will be incorporated.

From midweek onward, have generally stuck closer to the blend of the
29/12Z GFS Ensemble and the 29/00Z Euro ensembles along with
incorporating our previous forecast.

Forecast Confidence...

Forecast confidence on the occurrence of precipitation from Saturday
Night through Monday morning is high given the good model
agreement.  Forecast confidence on the precipitation type is much
lower given the uncertainty in the forecast of lower atmospheric
temperature profiles.  This is especially true across much of
southern Kentucky where low-level warm air will likely keep
precipitation mixed or in plain liquid.  Forecast confidence is
increasing however, that much of southern Indiana and portions far
northern KY will see mostly snow with the late weekend system.

Forecast confidence from midweek onward can be described as
low-moderate in both temperature and precipitation departments.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

A quiet day of weather is expected on Saturday as we wait for the
approach of the late weekend weather system.  The day will likely
start off partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late in
the day.  Highs look to warm into the upper 30s in the north with
lower 40s across the south.

By Saturday night, we expect a band of precipitation to develop out
to our northwest within a large baroclinic zone from the central
Plains into the Midwest.  Moisture is expected to return to the
region during the overnight period with precipitation breaking out
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky very late Saturday
night.  Thermal profiles generally look cold enough for mostly snow,
but a mix of snow and rain may occur down across southern Kentucky.

Precipitation is expected to expand and increase in intensity during
the day on Sunday across the region.  Model proximity soundings and
thermal cross-sections suggest that mainly snow will occur across
southern Indiana and across far northern KY.  Just exactly how far
south the rain/snow line will be is not definitive at this time.
However, incorporating the multi-model consensus, it does appear
that the previous forecast of rain and snow across much of
south-central Kentucky still looks to be likely at this time.
However, should thermal profiles end up being slightly cooler, the
lower boundary layer may be sufficiently cool enough to have snow as
the pre-dominant precipitation type despite the fact that surface
temperatures may be several degrees above freezing.

As the surface low passes through the far southern portion of our
forecast area, colder air will be pulled in from the north resulting
in all areas seeing snow Sunday evening.  The GFS and Euro continue
to show a good deformation band signal within their data sets this
afternoon.  This deformation band looks to start off in central IN
Sunday afternoon and then many pivot southeastward into Kentucky
late Sunday night and early Sunday morning.  Based on the current
datasets, the best chances for accumulating snows looks to be from
Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this system.
It should be noted that the weather features forcing this system are
located quite a ways from the North American upper air network and
will not be properly sampled until late tonight or Friday morning.
Because of the numerical models sensitivity to initial datasets,
oscillations in the model solutions are still possible.  We
encourage people with travel plans this weekend to keep a close eye
on subsequent forecasts as travel may be negatively impacted late
this weekend.

Quieter weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as we will be in
between weather systems.  High and low temperature forecasts are
particularly hard to nail down at this point as they may be greatly
impacted if we have snow cover.  For now, have stuck close to the
SuperBlend guidance with highs in the mid-upper 20s to the lower 30s.

From midweek on, we will need to keep an eye on another weather
system that will affect our region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  The track and evolution of this system is highly unknown and
may be modulated to an extent by the late weekend system.  For now,
have kept a rain/snow mix chance in for Wednesday with some light
snow possible Wednesday night.  Much colder conditions look likely
as we head to towards the end of the week.  Current guidance
generally gives highs in the 20s, but this could be too optimistic
if a snow pack exists.  Overnight lows in the upper single digits to
lower teens are expected.  However, sub-zero readings will be on the
table if a significant snow pack is realized.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

A cold front will quickly slide through the TAF sites this
afternoon, with SW winds veering to WNW then NW through the
afternoon and evening. Expect sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph,
occasionally gusting up around 35 mph during this time. As we move
into mid afternoon, an upper disturbance combined with low level
moisture may be enough to squeeze out a few showers. Any
precipitation should be light so doubt vis restrictions will occur.
Will put VCSH in TAFs just in case.

Otherwise, ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR range very
quickly, with ceilings expected to be below fuel-alternate by late
afternoon at SDF/LEX.

Low ceilings should persist fur much of the night with showers
changing to snow showers at SDF/LEX. Winds will continue to veer to
NW and slacken. A return to higher MVFR or even VFR is possible by
late morning, although there is some question as to whether low level
moisture will still be trapped under the inversion.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
353 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Latest analysis shows surface low pressure centered over west
central Illinois while a cold front stretched through central
Missouri into northwest Arkansas. Ahead of this feature, a
tightening pressure gradient and strong 50-60 kt jet between 900 and
800 mb has brought warming temperatures to the Ohio Valley
overnight. After bottoming out in the 20s to to lower 30s, readings
have warmed into the mid 40s in the west while some eastern
locations are holding in the lower 30s.

The sheltered and valley locations across the far eastern and
northeast forecast area have been slower to respond. Temperatures
are expected to be right around 32 degrees as precipitation moves in
early this morning and combined with the drier low levels, concerned
that for a brief period, light freezing rain could fall and coat
road surfaces. Road temperature sensors across that area are in the
30 to 32 degree range. This could cause some travel issues,
especially for the morning commute. After coordinating with ILN/JKL,
have opted to issue a SPS to cover the potential slick and icy spots
across the Bluegrass region.

Hi-res models are capturing the band of showers associated with the
initial warming and PV anomaly fairly well, bringing it through
central KY and southern IN early this morning through the
mid-morning hours. Will time the highest POPs during its passage.
The true cold front and upper trough will arrive early to mid
afternoon which could bring additional rain showers. High
temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s
before beginning to fall mid afternoon post frontal.

Wrap around moisture then arrives later this evening and through the
overnight hours. Cross sections and soundings show the moisture
mainly resides in the low levels. As colder air filters in while
moisture exits, there`s still the window for wintry precipitation.
Soundings show loss of ice and saturation only reaches up to about
-5C, so there is a concern for a period of drizzle or freezing
drizzle across the Bluegrass region before enough cold air supports
a changeover to snow flurries or showers. Have added a slight chance
of freezing drizzle to the forecast for the late evening and
overnight hours. Plan on low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

Wrap around stratus is expected to hold in place Thursday night
through a good portion of Friday, especially east of I-65, as
moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion. Plan on a seasonably
cold day with highs only topping out in the 30s. If clouds hang on
longer into the afternoon, it`s possible forecast high temperatures
may be a few degrees too warm.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snows Increasingly Likely Late This Weekend Across
Southern Indiana and Portions of Northern Kentucky...

==================================
Synoptic Scale Overview
==================================

A split flow pattern aloft will be found at the beginning of the
forecast period.  By Sunday, a moderately strong mid-level wave will
drop out of the northern Plains and amplify as it approaches the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will
take place over Arkansas with the newly formed surface low moving
from SW Tennessee into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning.
With cold air in place across the northern half of the forecast
area, a swath of accumulating snows looks increasingly likely.
Further south, near the surface low track, a wintry mix of rain and
snow appears likely...eventually transitioning to all snow by Sunday
night.  The upper air pattern is then forecast to relax a bit,
however, significant amplification is expected to occur by midweek
as waves in the northern and southern stream attempt to phase and
carve out a large/deep trough over the eastern third of the United
States.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Model Trends...

Over the last 24 hours, we have started to see a more definitive
case of model convergence on the evolution of the late weekend storm
system.  All of the 29/12Z guidance has trended colder with regards
to the lower boundary layer temperatures.  The GFS and Euro have led
the trend in the colder solutions, while the NAM and Canadian GEM
have now started trending colder as well.  The NAM is still the
warmest of the models, while the GFS/GEM/Euro are generally the same
as their previous runs.  Noticeably, the Euro and GFS solutions have
continued to show remarkable continuity in their runs, which results
in increasing forecaster confidence on the evolution of this
system.  Given the current datasets and trends, it appears
increasingly likely that accumulating snows will be a threat to
southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky.

The model data continues to exhibit some spread regarding the
mid-late week system as the upper level flow and timing of features
remain uncertain.  However, there appears to be at least some hint
of agreement that another weather system will affect the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

Model Preference...

For this forecast cycle we will be utilizing a blend of the previous
forecast while incorporating the colder solutions from the new
datasets.  The forecast itself remains largely unchanged, but given
the relatively good model agreement, we will be increasing PoPs
for Saturday Night through Monday morning.  As for QPF, a blend of
the GFS/Euro/WPC Guidance will be incorporated.

From midweek onward, have generally stuck closer to the blend of the
29/12Z GFS Ensemble and the 29/00Z Euro ensembles along with
incorporating our previous forecast.

Forecast Confidence...

Forecast confidence on the occurrence of precipitation from Saturday
Night through Monday morning is high given the good model
agreement.  Forecast confidence on the precipitation type is much
lower given the uncertainty in the forecast of lower atmospheric
temperature profiles.  This is especially true across much of
southern Kentucky where low-level warm air will likely keep
precipitation mixed or in plain liquid.  Forecast confidence is
increasing however, that much of southern Indiana and portions far
northern KY will see mostly snow with the late weekend system.

Forecast confidence from midweek onward can be described as
low-moderate in both temperature and precipitation departments.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

A quiet day of weather is expected on Saturday as we wait for the
approach of the late weekend weather system.  The day will likely
start off partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late in
the day.  Highs look to warm into the upper 30s in the north with
lower 40s across the south.

By Saturday night, we expect a band of precipitation to develop out
to our northwest within a large baroclinic zone from the central
Plains into the Midwest.  Moisture is expected to return to the
region during the overnight period with precipitation breaking out
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky very late Saturday
night.  Thermal profiles generally look cold enough for mostly snow,
but a mix of snow and rain may occur down across southern Kentucky.

Precipitation is expected to expand and increase in intensity during
the day on Sunday across the region.  Model proximity soundings and
thermal cross-sections suggest that mainly snow will occur across
southern Indiana and across far northern KY.  Just exactly how far
south the rain/snow line will be is not definitive at this time.
However, incorporating the multi-model consensus, it does appear
that the previous forecast of rain and snow across much of
south-central Kentucky still looks to be likely at this time.
However, should thermal profiles end up being slightly cooler, the
lower boundary layer may be sufficiently cool enough to have snow as
the pre-dominant precipitation type despite the fact that surface
temperatures may be several degrees above freezing.

As the surface low passes through the far southern portion of our
forecast area, colder air will be pulled in from the north resulting
in all areas seeing snow Sunday evening.  The GFS and Euro continue
to show a good deformation band signal within their data sets this
afternoon.  This deformation band looks to start off in central IN
Sunday afternoon and then many pivot southeastward into Kentucky
late Sunday night and early Sunday morning.  Based on the current
datasets, the best chances for accumulating snows looks to be from
Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this system.
It should be noted that the weather features forcing this system are
located quite a ways from the North American upper air network and
will not be properly sampled until late tonight or Friday morning.
Because of the numerical models sensitivity to initial datasets,
oscillations in the model solutions are still possible.  We
encourage people with travel plans this weekend to keep a close eye
on subsequent forecasts as travel may be negatively impacted late
this weekend.

Quieter weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as we will be in
between weather systems.  High and low temperature forecasts are
particularly hard to nail down at this point as they may be greatly
impacted if we have snow cover.  For now, have stuck close to the
SuperBlend guidance with highs in the mid-upper 20s to the lower 30s.

From midweek on, we will need to keep an eye on another weather
system that will affect our region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  The track and evolution of this system is highly unknown and
may be modulated to an extent by the late weekend system.  For now,
have kept a rain/snow mix chance in for Wednesday with some light
snow possible Wednesday night.  Much colder conditions look likely
as we head to towards the end of the week.  Current guidance
generally gives highs in the 20s, but this could be too optimistic
if a snow pack exists.  Overnight lows in the upper single digits to
lower teens are expected.  However, sub-zero readings will be on the
table if a significant snow pack is realized.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

A cold front will quickly slide through the TAF sites this
afternoon, with SW winds veering to WNW then NW through the
afternoon and evening. Expect sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph,
occasionally gusting up around 35 mph during this time. As we move
into mid afternoon, an upper disturbance combined with low level
moisture may be enough to squeeze out a few showers. Any
precipitation should be light so doubt vis restrictions will occur.
Will put VCSH in TAFs just in case.

Otherwise, ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR range very
quickly, with ceilings expected to be below fuel-alternate by late
afternoon at SDF/LEX.

Low ceilings should persist fur much of the night with showers
changing to snow showers at SDF/LEX. Winds will continue to veer to
NW and slacken. A return to higher MVFR or even VFR is possible by
late morning, although there is some question as to whether low
level moisture will still be trapped under the inversion.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........BJS









000
FXUS63 KLMK 292029
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Latest analysis shows surface low pressure centered over west
central Illinois while a cold front stretched through central
Missouri into northwest Arkansas. Ahead of this feature, a
tightening pressure gradient and strong 50-60 kt jet between 900 and
800 mb has brought warming temperatures to the Ohio Valley
overnight. After bottoming out in the 20s to to lower 30s, readings
have warmed into the mid 40s in the west while some eastern
locations are holding in the lower 30s.

The sheltered and valley locations across the far eastern and
northeast forecast area have been slower to respond. Temperatures
are expected to be right around 32 degrees as precipitation moves in
early this morning and combined with the drier low levels, concerned
that for a brief period, light freezing rain could fall and coat
road surfaces. Road temperature sensors across that area are in the
30 to 32 degree range. This could cause some travel issues,
especially for the morning commute. After coordinating with ILN/JKL,
have opted to issue a SPS to cover the potential slick and icy spots
across the Bluegrass region.

Hi-res models are capturing the band of showers associated with the
initial warming and PV anomaly fairly well, bringing it through
central KY and southern IN early this morning through the
mid-morning hours. Will time the highest POPs during its passage.
The true cold front and upper trough will arrive early to mid
afternoon which could bring additional rain showers. High
temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s
before beginning to fall mid afternoon post frontal.

Wrap around moisture then arrives later this evening and through the
overnight hours. Cross sections and soundings show the moisture
mainly resides in the low levels. As colder air filters in while
moisture exits, there`s still the window for wintry precipitation.
Soundings show loss of ice and saturation only reaches up to about
-5C, so there is a concern for a period of drizzle or freezing
drizzle across the Bluegrass region before enough cold air supports
a changeover to snow flurries or showers. Have added a slight chance
of freezing drizzle to the forecast for the late evening and
overnight hours. Plan on low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

Wrap around stratus is expected to hold in place Thursday night
through a good portion of Friday, especially east of I-65, as
moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion. Plan on a seasonably
cold day with highs only topping out in the 30s. If clouds hang on
longer into the afternoon, it`s possible forecast high temperatures
may be a few degrees too warm.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snows Increasingly Likely Late This Weekend Across
Southern Indiana and Portions of Northern Kentucky...

==================================
Synoptic Scale Overview
==================================

A split flow pattern aloft will be found at the beginning of the
forecast period.  By Sunday, a moderately strong mid-level wave will
drop out of the northern Plains and amplify as it approaches the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will
take place over Arkansas with the newly formed surface low moving
from SW Tennessee into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning.
With cold air in place across the northern half of the forecast
area, a swath of accumulating snows looks increasingly likely.
Further south, near the surface low track, a wintry mix of rain and
snow appears likely...eventually transitioning to all snow by Sunday
night.  The upper air pattern is then forecast to relax a bit,
however, significant amplification is expected to occur by midweek
as waves in the northern and southern stream attempt to phase and
carve out a large/deep trough over the eastern third of the United
States.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Model Trends...

Over the last 24 hours, we have started to see a more definitive
case of model convergence on the evolution of the late weekend storm
system.  All of the 29/12Z guidance has trended colder with regards
to the lower boundary layer temperatures.  The GFS and Euro have led
the trend in the colder solutions, while the NAM and Canadian GEM
have now started trending colder as well.  The NAM is still the
warmest of the models, while the GFS/GEM/Euro are generally the same
as their previous runs.  Noticeably, the Euro and GFS solutions have
continued to show remarkable continuity in their runs, which results
in increasing forecaster confidence on the evolution of this
system.  Given the current datasets and trends, it appears
increasingly likely that accumulating snows will be a threat to
southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky.

The model data continues to exhibit some spread regarding the
mid-late week system as the upper level flow and timing of features
remain uncertain.  However, there appears to be at least some hint
of agreement that another weather system will affect the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

Model Preference...

For this forecast cycle we will be utilizing a blend of the previous
forecast while incorporating the colder solutions from the new
datasets.  The forecast itself remains largely unchanged, but given
the relatively good model agreement, we will be increasing PoPs
for Saturday Night through Monday morning.  As for QPF, a blend of
the GFS/Euro/WPC Guidance will be incorporated.

From midweek onward, have generally stuck closer to the blend of the
29/12Z GFS Ensemble and the 29/00Z Euro ensembles along with
incorporating our previous forecast.

Forecast Confidence...

Forecast confidence on the occurrence of precipitation from Saturday
Night through Monday morning is high given the good model
agreement.  Forecast confidence on the precipitation type is much
lower given the uncertainty in the forecast of lower atmospheric
temperature profiles.  This is especially true across much of
southern Kentucky where low-level warm air will likely keep
precipitation mixed or in plain liquid.  Forecast confidence is
increasing however, that much of southern Indiana and portions far
northern KY will see mostly snow with the late weekend system.

Forecast confidence from midweek onward can be described as
low-moderate in both temperature and precipitation departments.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

A quiet day of weather is expected on Saturday as we wait for the
approach of the late weekend weather system.  The day will likely
start off partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late in
the day.  Highs look to warm into the upper 30s in the north with
lower 40s across the south.

By Saturday night, we expect a band of precipitation to develop out
to our northwest within a large baroclinic zone from the central
Plains into the Midwest.  Moisture is expected to return to the
region during the overnight period with precipitation breaking out
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky very late Saturday
night.  Thermal profiles generally look cold enough for mostly snow,
but a mix of snow and rain may occur down across southern Kentucky.

Precipitation is expected to expand and increase in intensity during
the day on Sunday across the region.  Model proximity soundings and
thermal cross-sections suggest that mainly snow will occur across
southern Indiana and across far northern KY.  Just exactly how far
south the rain/snow line will be is not definitive at this time.
However, incorporating the multi-model consensus, it does appear
that the previous forecast of rain and snow across much of
south-central Kentucky still looks to be likely at this time.
However, should thermal profiles end up being slightly cooler, the
lower boundary layer may be sufficiently cool enough to have snow as
the pre-dominant precipitation type despite the fact that surface
temperatures may be several degrees above freezing.

As the surface low passes through the far southern portion of our
forecast area, colder air will be pulled in from the north resulting
in all areas seeing snow Sunday evening.  The GFS and Euro continue
to show a good deformation band signal within their data sets this
afternoon.  This deformation band looks to start off in central IN
Sunday afternoon and then many pivot southeastward into Kentucky
late Sunday night and early Sunday morning.  Based on the current
datasets, the best chances for accumulating snows looks to be from
Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this system.
It should be noted that the weather features forcing this system are
located quite a ways from the North American upper air network and
will not be properly sampled until late tonight or Friday morning.
Because of the numerical models sensitivity to initial datasets,
oscillations in the model solutions are still possible.  We
encourage people with travel plans this weekend to keep a close eye
on subsequent forecasts as travel may be negatively impacted late
this weekend.

Quieter weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as we will be in
between weather systems.  High and low temperature forecasts are
particularly hard to nail down at this point as they may be greatly
impacted if we have snow cover.  For now, have stuck close to the
SuperBlend guidance with highs in the mid-upper 20s to the lower 30s.

From midweek on, we will need to keep an eye on another weather
system that will affect our region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  The track and evolution of this system is highly unknown and
may be modulated to an extent by the late weekend system.  For now,
have kept a rain/snow mix chance in for Wednesday with some light
snow possible Wednesday night.  Much colder conditions look likely
as we head to towards the end of the week.  Current guidance
generally gives highs in the 20s, but this could be too optimistic
if a snow pack exists.  Overnight lows in the upper single digits to
lower teens are expected.  However, sub-zero readings will be on the
table if a significant snow pack is realized.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

A cold front will quickly slide through the TAF sites this
afternoon, with SW winds veering to WNW then NW through the
afternoon and evening. Expect sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph,
occasionally gusting up around 35 mph during this time. As we move
into mid afternoon, an upper disturbance combined with low level
moisture may be enough to squeeze out a few showers. Any
precipitation should be light so doubt vis restrictions will occur.
Will put VCSH in TAFs just in case.

Otherwise, ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR range very
quickly, with ceilings expected to be below fuel-alternate by late
afternoon at SDF/LEX.

Low ceilings should persist fur much of the night with showers
changing to snow showers at SDF/LEX. Winds will continue to veer to
NW and slacken. A return to higher MVFR or even VFR is possible by
late morning, although there is some question as to whether low level
moisture will still be trapped under the inversion.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292029
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Latest analysis shows surface low pressure centered over west
central Illinois while a cold front stretched through central
Missouri into northwest Arkansas. Ahead of this feature, a
tightening pressure gradient and strong 50-60 kt jet between 900 and
800 mb has brought warming temperatures to the Ohio Valley
overnight. After bottoming out in the 20s to to lower 30s, readings
have warmed into the mid 40s in the west while some eastern
locations are holding in the lower 30s.

The sheltered and valley locations across the far eastern and
northeast forecast area have been slower to respond. Temperatures
are expected to be right around 32 degrees as precipitation moves in
early this morning and combined with the drier low levels, concerned
that for a brief period, light freezing rain could fall and coat
road surfaces. Road temperature sensors across that area are in the
30 to 32 degree range. This could cause some travel issues,
especially for the morning commute. After coordinating with ILN/JKL,
have opted to issue a SPS to cover the potential slick and icy spots
across the Bluegrass region.

Hi-res models are capturing the band of showers associated with the
initial warming and PV anomaly fairly well, bringing it through
central KY and southern IN early this morning through the
mid-morning hours. Will time the highest POPs during its passage.
The true cold front and upper trough will arrive early to mid
afternoon which could bring additional rain showers. High
temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s
before beginning to fall mid afternoon post frontal.

Wrap around moisture then arrives later this evening and through the
overnight hours. Cross sections and soundings show the moisture
mainly resides in the low levels. As colder air filters in while
moisture exits, there`s still the window for wintry precipitation.
Soundings show loss of ice and saturation only reaches up to about
-5C, so there is a concern for a period of drizzle or freezing
drizzle across the Bluegrass region before enough cold air supports
a changeover to snow flurries or showers. Have added a slight chance
of freezing drizzle to the forecast for the late evening and
overnight hours. Plan on low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

Wrap around stratus is expected to hold in place Thursday night
through a good portion of Friday, especially east of I-65, as
moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion. Plan on a seasonably
cold day with highs only topping out in the 30s. If clouds hang on
longer into the afternoon, it`s possible forecast high temperatures
may be a few degrees too warm.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snows Increasingly Likely Late This Weekend Across
Southern Indiana and Portions of Northern Kentucky...

==================================
Synoptic Scale Overview
==================================

A split flow pattern aloft will be found at the beginning of the
forecast period.  By Sunday, a moderately strong mid-level wave will
drop out of the northern Plains and amplify as it approaches the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will
take place over Arkansas with the newly formed surface low moving
from SW Tennessee into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning.
With cold air in place across the northern half of the forecast
area, a swath of accumulating snows looks increasingly likely.
Further south, near the surface low track, a wintry mix of rain and
snow appears likely...eventually transitioning to all snow by Sunday
night.  The upper air pattern is then forecast to relax a bit,
however, significant amplification is expected to occur by midweek
as waves in the northern and southern stream attempt to phase and
carve out a large/deep trough over the eastern third of the United
States.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Model Trends...

Over the last 24 hours, we have started to see a more definitive
case of model convergence on the evolution of the late weekend storm
system.  All of the 29/12Z guidance has trended colder with regards
to the lower boundary layer temperatures.  The GFS and Euro have led
the trend in the colder solutions, while the NAM and Canadian GEM
have now started trending colder as well.  The NAM is still the
warmest of the models, while the GFS/GEM/Euro are generally the same
as their previous runs.  Noticeably, the Euro and GFS solutions have
continued to show remarkable continuity in their runs, which results
in increasing forecaster confidence on the evolution of this
system.  Given the current datasets and trends, it appears
increasingly likely that accumulating snows will be a threat to
southern Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky.

The model data continues to exhibit some spread regarding the
mid-late week system as the upper level flow and timing of features
remain uncertain.  However, there appears to be at least some hint
of agreement that another weather system will affect the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

Model Preference...

For this forecast cycle we will be utilizing a blend of the previous
forecast while incorporating the colder solutions from the new
datasets.  The forecast itself remains largely unchanged, but given
the relatively good model agreement, we will be increasing PoPs
for Saturday Night through Monday morning.  As for QPF, a blend of
the GFS/Euro/WPC Guidance will be incorporated.

From midweek onward, have generally stuck closer to the blend of the
29/12Z GFS Ensemble and the 29/00Z Euro ensembles along with
incorporating our previous forecast.

Forecast Confidence...

Forecast confidence on the occurrence of precipitation from Saturday
Night through Monday morning is high given the good model
agreement.  Forecast confidence on the precipitation type is much
lower given the uncertainty in the forecast of lower atmospheric
temperature profiles.  This is especially true across much of
southern Kentucky where low-level warm air will likely keep
precipitation mixed or in plain liquid.  Forecast confidence is
increasing however, that much of southern Indiana and portions far
northern KY will see mostly snow with the late weekend system.

Forecast confidence from midweek onward can be described as
low-moderate in both temperature and precipitation departments.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

A quiet day of weather is expected on Saturday as we wait for the
approach of the late weekend weather system.  The day will likely
start off partly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late in
the day.  Highs look to warm into the upper 30s in the north with
lower 40s across the south.

By Saturday night, we expect a band of precipitation to develop out
to our northwest within a large baroclinic zone from the central
Plains into the Midwest.  Moisture is expected to return to the
region during the overnight period with precipitation breaking out
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky very late Saturday
night.  Thermal profiles generally look cold enough for mostly snow,
but a mix of snow and rain may occur down across southern Kentucky.

Precipitation is expected to expand and increase in intensity during
the day on Sunday across the region.  Model proximity soundings and
thermal cross-sections suggest that mainly snow will occur across
southern Indiana and across far northern KY.  Just exactly how far
south the rain/snow line will be is not definitive at this time.
However, incorporating the multi-model consensus, it does appear
that the previous forecast of rain and snow across much of
south-central Kentucky still looks to be likely at this time.
However, should thermal profiles end up being slightly cooler, the
lower boundary layer may be sufficiently cool enough to have snow as
the pre-dominant precipitation type despite the fact that surface
temperatures may be several degrees above freezing.

As the surface low passes through the far southern portion of our
forecast area, colder air will be pulled in from the north resulting
in all areas seeing snow Sunday evening.  The GFS and Euro continue
to show a good deformation band signal within their data sets this
afternoon.  This deformation band looks to start off in central IN
Sunday afternoon and then many pivot southeastward into Kentucky
late Sunday night and early Sunday morning.  Based on the current
datasets, the best chances for accumulating snows looks to be from
Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the evolution of this system.
It should be noted that the weather features forcing this system are
located quite a ways from the North American upper air network and
will not be properly sampled until late tonight or Friday morning.
Because of the numerical models sensitivity to initial datasets,
oscillations in the model solutions are still possible.  We
encourage people with travel plans this weekend to keep a close eye
on subsequent forecasts as travel may be negatively impacted late
this weekend.

Quieter weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as we will be in
between weather systems.  High and low temperature forecasts are
particularly hard to nail down at this point as they may be greatly
impacted if we have snow cover.  For now, have stuck close to the
SuperBlend guidance with highs in the mid-upper 20s to the lower 30s.

From midweek on, we will need to keep an eye on another weather
system that will affect our region in the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame.  The track and evolution of this system is highly unknown and
may be modulated to an extent by the late weekend system.  For now,
have kept a rain/snow mix chance in for Wednesday with some light
snow possible Wednesday night.  Much colder conditions look likely
as we head to towards the end of the week.  Current guidance
generally gives highs in the 20s, but this could be too optimistic
if a snow pack exists.  Overnight lows in the upper single digits to
lower teens are expected.  However, sub-zero readings will be on the
table if a significant snow pack is realized.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

A cold front will quickly slide through the TAF sites this
afternoon, with SW winds veering to WNW then NW through the
afternoon and evening. Expect sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph,
occasionally gusting up around 35 mph during this time. As we move
into mid afternoon, an upper disturbance combined with low level
moisture may be enough to squeeze out a few showers. Any
precipitation should be light so doubt vis restrictions will occur.
Will put VCSH in TAFs just in case.

Otherwise, ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR range very
quickly, with ceilings expected to be below fuel-alternate by late
afternoon at SDF/LEX.

Low ceilings should persist fur much of the night with showers
changing to snow showers at SDF/LEX. Winds will continue to veer to
NW and slacken. A return to higher MVFR or even VFR is possible by
late morning, although there is some question as to whether low level
moisture will still be trapped under the inversion.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291728
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1228 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1046 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Precipitation has exited to our east this morning, with a nice and
brief dry slot working over the area ahead of the approaching cold
front. Temperatures have quickly warmed into the mid 40s NE to low
50s SW on steady SW flow. Have updated sky cover and temperatures
this morning to reflect the latest trends and include a few hours of
mostly sunny skies before a stratocu deck builds back into the
region along and just behind the cold front. Have also upped wind
gusts more into the 35 mph range as some upstream obs are already
suggesting values close to that.

Later this afternoon, expect that just enough low level moisture
will be present combined with steepening low level lapse rates to
produce isolated to scattered showers across much of the area. Can`t
rule out that some very small hail/graupel (not sleet) will be
present in some of the showers with freezing levels very low.

As we move into the evening and overnight hours lingering
precipitation will change to rain/snow then snow across mainly our
eastern CWA with a light dusting of snow possible by dawn. The 12z
data came in just a bit deeper with moisture to the point where any
freezing drizzle chances would be very short lived and most likely
won`t occur. So, removed this from the forecast as we saturate to -7
or -8 C before surface temps drop below freezing. Will monitor these
trends as the day progresses. Will also watch for an enhancement of
showers across our far east as NW surface winds should be favorable
for an upslope component this evening and overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Latest analysis shows surface low pressure centered over west
central Illinois while a cold front stretched through central
Missouri into northwest Arkansas. Ahead of this feature, a
tightening pressure gradient and strong 50-60 kt jet between 900 and
800 mb has brought warming temperatures to the Ohio Valley
overnight. After bottoming out in the 20s to to lower 30s, readings
have warmed into the mid 40s in the west while some eastern
locations are holding in the lower 30s.

The sheltered and valley locations across the far eastern and
northeast forecast area have been slower to respond. Temperatures
are expected to be right around 32 degrees as precipitation moves in
early this morning and combined with the drier low levels, concerned
that for a brief period, light freezing rain could fall and coat
road surfaces. Road temperature sensors across that area are in the
30 to 32 degree range. This could cause some travel issues,
especially for the morning commute. After coordinating with ILN/JKL,
have opted to issue a SPS to cover the potential slick and icy spots
across the Bluegrass region.

Hi-res models are capturing the band of showers associated with the
initial warming and PV anomaly fairly well, bringing it through
central KY and southern IN early this morning through the
mid-morning hours. Will time the highest POPs during its passage.
The true cold front and upper trough will arrive early to mid
afternoon which could bring additional rain showers. High
temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s
before beginning to fall mid afternoon post frontal.

Wrap around moisture then arrives later this evening and through the
overnight hours. Cross sections and soundings show the moisture
mainly resides in the low levels. As colder air filters in while
moisture exits, there`s still the window for wintry precipitation.
Soundings show loss of ice and saturation only reaches up to about
-5C, so there is a concern for a period of drizzle or freezing
drizzle across the Bluegrass region before enough cold air supports
a changeover to snow flurries or showers. Have added a slight chance
of freezing drizzle to the forecast for the late evening and
overnight hours. Plan on low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

Wrap around stratus is expected to hold in place Thursday night
through a good portion of Friday, especially east of I-65, as
moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion. Plan on a seasonably
cold day with highs only topping out in the 30s. If clouds hang on
longer into the afternoon, it`s possible forecast high temperatures
may be a few degrees too warm.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Late This Weekend...

Sfc high pressure will briefly dominate the area Fri night/Sat.
With light winds and only partly cloudy skies Fri night, temps
should be able to drop into the mid teens to lower 20s for lows.
Clouds will be on the increase Sat ahead of an approaching weather
system with high temps topping out in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Weekend Storm:
--------------

The storm system to watch this weekend will get organized over the
central U.S. on Sat as energy ejects eastward out of an upper low
across the southwest U.S. and another wave dives southeast out of
Canada.  Both waves are well removed from the continental U.S. right
now though and although 0Z GFS/ECMWF came in with surprisingly good
agreement with their solution for this system over the Ohio Valley,
beware that these upper level features still have a good way to
travel before they reach the North American coastline and thus
timing/intensity/phasing could change in coming model runs.  Such
differences are apparent in 0Z GEM/NAM data which have
warmer/farther north solns.  Still given decent agreement between
GFS/GFS ensembles/ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles, did trend the forecast
colder.

Thus, think that precip will overspread the area on Sat night as
perhaps a brief mix and transition over to light snow Sat night over
most locations.  Sunday precipitation is likely over the entire
area.  Models vary on QPF for Sun depending on strength and phasing
of the aforementioned waves and how much moisture they are able to
pull in.  Think that all snow is mostly likely over southern
Indiana, the rain/snow line may hover somewhere over central KY, and
south central KY is likely to see a rain/snow mix perhaps transition
over to a period of all rain.  Sun night precip will continue over
the area with most locations eventually changing over to all snow
before precip ends Sun night or early Mon.  IF this scenario plays
out, portions of the area could see accumulating snow in the Sat
night-Sun night time frame.  HOWEVER, if the warmer solns play out,
then our region would mostly see rain on Sun with perhaps some light
snow or a rain/snow mix possible on the front and back sides of the
system Sat night/Sun night.

Please stay tuned to upcoming forecasts on this weekend`s weather
system.

-------------

Beyond this weekend, the pattern looks to remain fairly active with
a few clipper type systems attempting to bring us precip by mid
week.

Temperatures will likely start out on Monday in the upper 20s/lower
30s (potentially colder in areas that receive snowfall) then
moderate toward mid week closer to seasonal normals.  Temps look to
fall back below normal during the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

A cold front will quickly slide through the TAF sites this
afternoon, with SW winds veering to WNW then NW through the
afternoon and evening. Expect sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph,
occasionally gusting up around 35 mph during this time. As we move
into mid afternoon, an upper disturbance combined with low level
moisture may be enough to squeeze out a few showers. Any
precipitation should be light so doubt vis restrictions will occur.
Will put VCSH in TAFs just in case.

Otherwise, ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR range very
quickly, with ceilings expected to be below fuel-alternate by late
afternoon at SDF/LEX.

Low ceilings should persist fur much of the night with showers
changing to snow showers at SDF/LEX. Winds will continue to veer to
NW and slacken. A return to higher MVFR or even VFR is possible by
late morning, although there is some question as to whether low level
moisture will still be trapped under the inversion.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291728
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1228 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1046 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Precipitation has exited to our east this morning, with a nice and
brief dry slot working over the area ahead of the approaching cold
front. Temperatures have quickly warmed into the mid 40s NE to low
50s SW on steady SW flow. Have updated sky cover and temperatures
this morning to reflect the latest trends and include a few hours of
mostly sunny skies before a stratocu deck builds back into the
region along and just behind the cold front. Have also upped wind
gusts more into the 35 mph range as some upstream obs are already
suggesting values close to that.

Later this afternoon, expect that just enough low level moisture
will be present combined with steepening low level lapse rates to
produce isolated to scattered showers across much of the area. Can`t
rule out that some very small hail/graupel (not sleet) will be
present in some of the showers with freezing levels very low.

As we move into the evening and overnight hours lingering
precipitation will change to rain/snow then snow across mainly our
eastern CWA with a light dusting of snow possible by dawn. The 12z
data came in just a bit deeper with moisture to the point where any
freezing drizzle chances would be very short lived and most likely
won`t occur. So, removed this from the forecast as we saturate to -7
or -8 C before surface temps drop below freezing. Will monitor these
trends as the day progresses. Will also watch for an enhancement of
showers across our far east as NW surface winds should be favorable
for an upslope component this evening and overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Latest analysis shows surface low pressure centered over west
central Illinois while a cold front stretched through central
Missouri into northwest Arkansas. Ahead of this feature, a
tightening pressure gradient and strong 50-60 kt jet between 900 and
800 mb has brought warming temperatures to the Ohio Valley
overnight. After bottoming out in the 20s to to lower 30s, readings
have warmed into the mid 40s in the west while some eastern
locations are holding in the lower 30s.

The sheltered and valley locations across the far eastern and
northeast forecast area have been slower to respond. Temperatures
are expected to be right around 32 degrees as precipitation moves in
early this morning and combined with the drier low levels, concerned
that for a brief period, light freezing rain could fall and coat
road surfaces. Road temperature sensors across that area are in the
30 to 32 degree range. This could cause some travel issues,
especially for the morning commute. After coordinating with ILN/JKL,
have opted to issue a SPS to cover the potential slick and icy spots
across the Bluegrass region.

Hi-res models are capturing the band of showers associated with the
initial warming and PV anomaly fairly well, bringing it through
central KY and southern IN early this morning through the
mid-morning hours. Will time the highest POPs during its passage.
The true cold front and upper trough will arrive early to mid
afternoon which could bring additional rain showers. High
temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s
before beginning to fall mid afternoon post frontal.

Wrap around moisture then arrives later this evening and through the
overnight hours. Cross sections and soundings show the moisture
mainly resides in the low levels. As colder air filters in while
moisture exits, there`s still the window for wintry precipitation.
Soundings show loss of ice and saturation only reaches up to about
-5C, so there is a concern for a period of drizzle or freezing
drizzle across the Bluegrass region before enough cold air supports
a changeover to snow flurries or showers. Have added a slight chance
of freezing drizzle to the forecast for the late evening and
overnight hours. Plan on low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

Wrap around stratus is expected to hold in place Thursday night
through a good portion of Friday, especially east of I-65, as
moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion. Plan on a seasonably
cold day with highs only topping out in the 30s. If clouds hang on
longer into the afternoon, it`s possible forecast high temperatures
may be a few degrees too warm.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Late This Weekend...

Sfc high pressure will briefly dominate the area Fri night/Sat.
With light winds and only partly cloudy skies Fri night, temps
should be able to drop into the mid teens to lower 20s for lows.
Clouds will be on the increase Sat ahead of an approaching weather
system with high temps topping out in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Weekend Storm:
--------------

The storm system to watch this weekend will get organized over the
central U.S. on Sat as energy ejects eastward out of an upper low
across the southwest U.S. and another wave dives southeast out of
Canada.  Both waves are well removed from the continental U.S. right
now though and although 0Z GFS/ECMWF came in with surprisingly good
agreement with their solution for this system over the Ohio Valley,
beware that these upper level features still have a good way to
travel before they reach the North American coastline and thus
timing/intensity/phasing could change in coming model runs.  Such
differences are apparent in 0Z GEM/NAM data which have
warmer/farther north solns.  Still given decent agreement between
GFS/GFS ensembles/ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles, did trend the forecast
colder.

Thus, think that precip will overspread the area on Sat night as
perhaps a brief mix and transition over to light snow Sat night over
most locations.  Sunday precipitation is likely over the entire
area.  Models vary on QPF for Sun depending on strength and phasing
of the aforementioned waves and how much moisture they are able to
pull in.  Think that all snow is mostly likely over southern
Indiana, the rain/snow line may hover somewhere over central KY, and
south central KY is likely to see a rain/snow mix perhaps transition
over to a period of all rain.  Sun night precip will continue over
the area with most locations eventually changing over to all snow
before precip ends Sun night or early Mon.  IF this scenario plays
out, portions of the area could see accumulating snow in the Sat
night-Sun night time frame.  HOWEVER, if the warmer solns play out,
then our region would mostly see rain on Sun with perhaps some light
snow or a rain/snow mix possible on the front and back sides of the
system Sat night/Sun night.

Please stay tuned to upcoming forecasts on this weekend`s weather
system.

-------------

Beyond this weekend, the pattern looks to remain fairly active with
a few clipper type systems attempting to bring us precip by mid
week.

Temperatures will likely start out on Monday in the upper 20s/lower
30s (potentially colder in areas that receive snowfall) then
moderate toward mid week closer to seasonal normals.  Temps look to
fall back below normal during the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

A cold front will quickly slide through the TAF sites this
afternoon, with SW winds veering to WNW then NW through the
afternoon and evening. Expect sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph,
occasionally gusting up around 35 mph during this time. As we move
into mid afternoon, an upper disturbance combined with low level
moisture may be enough to squeeze out a few showers. Any
precipitation should be light so doubt vis restrictions will occur.
Will put VCSH in TAFs just in case.

Otherwise, ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR range very
quickly, with ceilings expected to be below fuel-alternate by late
afternoon at SDF/LEX.

Low ceilings should persist fur much of the night with showers
changing to snow showers at SDF/LEX. Winds will continue to veer to
NW and slacken. A return to higher MVFR or even VFR is possible by
late morning, although there is some question as to whether low level
moisture will still be trapped under the inversion.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291546
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1046 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1046 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Precipitation has exited to our east this morning, with a nice and
brief dry slot working over the area ahead of the approaching cold
front. Temperatures have quickly warmed into the mid 40s NE to low
50s SW on steady SW flow. Have updated sky cover and temperatures
this morning to reflect the latest trends and include a few hours of
mostly sunny skies before a stratocu deck builds back into the
region along and just behind the cold front. Have also upped wind
gusts more into the 35 mph range as some upstream obs are already
suggesting values close to that.

Later this afternoon, expect that just enough low level moisture
will be present combined with steepening low level lapse rates to
produce isolated to scattered showers across much of the area. Can`t
rule out that some very small hail/graupel (not sleet) will be
present in some of the showers with freezing levels very low.

As we move into the evening and overnight hours lingering
precipitation will change to rain/snow then snow across mainly our
eastern CWA with a light dusting of snow possible by dawn. The 12z
data came in just a bit deeper with moisture to the point where any
freezing drizzle chances would be very short lived and most likely
won`t occur. So, removed this from the forecast as we saturate to -7
or -8 C before surface temps drop below freezing. Will monitor these
trends as the day progresses. Will also watch for an enhancement of
showers across our far east as NW surface winds should be favorable
for an upslope component this evening and overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Latest analysis shows surface low pressure centered over west
central Illinois while a cold front stretched through central
Missouri into northwest Arkansas. Ahead of this feature, a
tightening pressure gradient and strong 50-60 kt jet between 900 and
800 mb has brought warming temperatures to the Ohio Valley
overnight. After bottoming out in the 20s to to lower 30s, readings
have warmed into the mid 40s in the west while some eastern
locations are holding in the lower 30s.

The sheltered and valley locations across the far eastern and
northeast forecast area have been slower to respond. Temperatures
are expected to be right around 32 degrees as precipitation moves in
early this morning and combined with the drier low levels, concerned
that for a brief period, light freezing rain could fall and coat
road surfaces. Road temperature sensors across that area are in the
30 to 32 degree range. This could cause some travel issues,
especially for the morning commute. After coordinating with ILN/JKL,
have opted to issue a SPS to cover the potential slick and icy spots
across the Bluegrass region.

Hi-res models are capturing the band of showers associated with the
initial warming and PV anomaly fairly well, bringing it through
central KY and southern IN early this morning through the
mid-morning hours. Will time the highest POPs during its passage.
The true cold front and upper trough will arrive early to mid
afternoon which could bring additional rain showers. High
temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s
before beginning to fall mid afternoon post frontal.

Wrap around moisture then arrives later this evening and through the
overnight hours. Cross sections and soundings show the moisture
mainly resides in the low levels. As colder air filters in while
moisture exits, there`s still the window for wintry precipitation.
Soundings show loss of ice and saturation only reaches up to about
-5C, so there is a concern for a period of drizzle or freezing
drizzle across the Bluegrass region before enough cold air supports
a changeover to snow flurries or showers. Have added a slight chance
of freezing drizzle to the forecast for the late evening and
overnight hours. Plan on low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

Wrap around stratus is expected to hold in place Thursday night
through a good portion of Friday, especially east of I-65, as
moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion. Plan on a seasonably
cold day with highs only topping out in the 30s. If clouds hang on
longer into the afternoon, it`s possible forecast high temperatures
may be a few degrees too warm.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Late This Weekend...

Sfc high pressure will briefly dominate the area Fri night/Sat.
With light winds and only partly cloudy skies Fri night, temps
should be able to drop into the mid teens to lower 20s for lows.
Clouds will be on the increase Sat ahead of an approaching weather
system with high temps topping out in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Weekend Storm:
--------------

The storm system to watch this weekend will get organized over the
central U.S. on Sat as energy ejects eastward out of an upper low
across the southwest U.S. and another wave dives southeast out of
Canada.  Both waves are well removed from the continental U.S. right
now though and although 0Z GFS/ECMWF came in with surprisingly good
agreement with their solution for this system over the Ohio Valley,
beware that these upper level features still have a good way to
travel before they reach the North American coastline and thus
timing/intensity/phasing could change in coming model runs.  Such
differences are apparent in 0Z GEM/NAM data which have
warmer/farther north solns.  Still given decent agreement between
GFS/GFS ensembles/ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles, did trend the forecast
colder.

Thus, think that precip will overspread the area on Sat night as
perhaps a brief mix and transition over to light snow Sat night over
most locations.  Sunday precipitation is likely over the entire
area.  Models vary on QPF for Sun depending on strength and phasing
of the aforementioned waves and how much moisture they are able to
pull in.  Think that all snow is mostly likely over southern
Indiana, the rain/snow line may hover somewhere over central KY, and
south central KY is likely to see a rain/snow mix perhaps transition
over to a period of all rain.  Sun night precip will continue over
the area with most locations eventually changing over to all snow
before precip ends Sun night or early Mon.  IF this scenario plays
out, portions of the area could see accumulating snow in the Sat
night-Sun night time frame.  HOWEVER, if the warmer solns play out,
then our region would mostly see rain on Sun with perhaps some light
snow or a rain/snow mix possible on the front and back sides of the
system Sat night/Sun night.

Please stay tuned to upcoming forecasts on this weekend`s weather
system.

-------------

Beyond this weekend, the pattern looks to remain fairly active with
a few clipper type systems attempting to bring us precip by mid
week.

Temperatures will likely start out on Monday in the upper 20s/lower
30s (potentially colder in areas that receive snowfall) then
moderate toward mid week closer to seasonal normals.  Temps look to
fall back below normal during the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 555 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Plan on the initial band of precipitation to pass through
BWG/SDF/LEX early this morning, exiting between 14-15z. This will
correspond to when winds begin to mix down to the surface, ending
LLWS threat. Southwest winds will then become gusty, between 20-25
kts. Plan on a dry slot / clear wedge to spread over the area ahead
of the cold front before quickly filling back in with wrap around
clouds as the surface low passes to the north. These clouds should
encompass the entire region by mid afternoon and last through the
TAF period. Current observations upstream are in the 1500 to 2500 ft
range, so below fuel alternate conditions are possible, especially
at SDF/LEX, by evening. Soundings show moisture remains trapped in
the low levels all night and there is the potential for snow
flurries or showers but isn`t likely to produce visibility
restrictions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291100
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
600 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Latest analysis shows surface low pressure centered over west
central Illinois while a cold front stretched through central
Missouri into northwest Arkansas. Ahead of this feature, a
tightening pressure gradient and strong 50-60 kt jet between 900 and
800 mb has brought warming temperatures to the Ohio Valley
overnight. After bottoming out in the 20s to to lower 30s, readings
have warmed into the mid 40s in the west while some eastern
locations are holding in the lower 30s.

The sheltered and valley locations across the far eastern and
northeast forecast area have been slower to respond. Temperatures
are expected to be right around 32 degrees as precipitation moves in
early this morning and combined with the drier low levels, concerned
that for a brief period, light freezing rain could fall and coat
road surfaces. Road temperature sensors across that area are in the
30 to 32 degree range. This could cause some travel issues,
especially for the morning commute. After coordinating with ILN/JKL,
have opted to issue a SPS to cover the potential slick and icy spots
across the Bluegrass region.

Hi-res models are capturing the band of showers associated with the
initial warming and PV anomaly fairly well, bringing it through
central KY and southern IN early this morning through the
mid-morning hours. Will time the highest POPs during its passage.
The true cold front and upper trough will arrive early to mid
afternoon which could bring additional rain showers. High
temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s
before beginning to fall mid afternoon post frontal.

Wrap around moisture then arrives later this evening and through the
overnight hours. Cross sections and soundings show the moisture
mainly resides in the low levels. As colder air filters in while
moisture exits, there`s still the window for wintry precipitation.
Soundings show loss of ice and saturation only reaches up to about
-5C, so there is a concern for a period of drizzle or freezing
drizzle across the Bluegrass region before enough cold air supports
a changeover to snow flurries or showers. Have added a slight chance
of freezing drizzle to the forecast for the late evening and
overnight hours. Plan on low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

Wrap around stratus is expected to hold in place Thursday night
through a good portion of Friday, especially east of I-65, as
moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion. Plan on a seasonably
cold day with highs only topping out in the 30s. If clouds hang on
longer into the afternoon, it`s possible forecast high temperatures
may be a few degrees too warm.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Late This Weekend...

Sfc high pressure will briefly dominate the area Fri night/Sat.
With light winds and only partly cloudy skies Fri night, temps
should be able to drop into the mid teens to lower 20s for lows.
Clouds will be on the increase Sat ahead of an approaching weather
system with high temps topping out in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Weekend Storm:
--------------

The storm system to watch this weekend will get organized over the
central U.S. on Sat as energy ejects eastward out of an upper low
across the southwest U.S. and another wave dives southeast out of
Canada.  Both waves are well removed from the continental U.S. right
now though and although 0Z GFS/ECMWF came in with surprisingly good
agreement with their solution for this system over the Ohio Valley,
beware that these upper level features still have a good way to
travel before they reach the North American coastline and thus
timing/intensity/phasing could change in coming model runs.  Such
differences are apparent in 0Z GEM/NAM data which have
warmer/farther north solns.  Still given decent agreement between
GFS/GFS ensembles/ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles, did trend the forecast
colder.

Thus, think that precip will overspread the area on Sat night as
perhaps a brief mix and transition over to light snow Sat night over
most locations.  Sunday precipitation is likely over the entire
area.  Models vary on QPF for Sun depending on strength and phasing
of the aforementioned waves and how much moisture they are able to
pull in.  Think that all snow is mostly likely over southern
Indiana, the rain/snow line may hover somewhere over central KY, and
south central KY is likely to see a rain/snow mix perhaps transition
over to a period of all rain.  Sun night precip will continue over
the area with most locations eventually changing over to all snow
before precip ends Sun night or early Mon.  IF this scenario plays
out, portions of the area could see accumulating snow in the Sat
night-Sun night time frame.  HOWEVER, if the warmer solns play out,
then our region would mostly see rain on Sun with perhaps some light
snow or a rain/snow mix possible on the front and back sides of the
system Sat night/Sun night.

Please stay tuned to upcoming forecasts on this weekend`s weather
system.

-------------

Beyond this weekend, the pattern looks to remain fairly active with
a few clipper type systems attempting to bring us precip by mid
week.

Temperatures will likely start out on Monday in the upper 20s/lower
30s (potentially colder in areas that receive snowfall) then
moderate toward mid week closer to seasonal normals.  Temps look to
fall back below normal during the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 555 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Plan on the initial band of precipitation to pass through
BWG/SDF/LEX early this morning, exiting between 14-15z. This will
correspond to when winds begin to mix down to the surface, ending
LLWS threat. Southwest winds will then become gusty, between 20-25
kts. Plan on a dry slot / clear wedge to spread over the area ahead
of the cold front before quickly filling back in with wrap around
clouds as the surface low passes to the north. These clouds should
encompass the entire region by mid afternoon and last through the
TAF period. Current observations upstream are in the 1500 to 2500 ft
range, so below fuel alternate conditions are possible, especially
at SDF/LEX, by evening. Soundings show moisture remains trapped in
the low levels all night and there is the potential for snow
flurries or showers but isn`t likely to produce visibility
restrictions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291100
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
600 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Latest analysis shows surface low pressure centered over west
central Illinois while a cold front stretched through central
Missouri into northwest Arkansas. Ahead of this feature, a
tightening pressure gradient and strong 50-60 kt jet between 900 and
800 mb has brought warming temperatures to the Ohio Valley
overnight. After bottoming out in the 20s to to lower 30s, readings
have warmed into the mid 40s in the west while some eastern
locations are holding in the lower 30s.

The sheltered and valley locations across the far eastern and
northeast forecast area have been slower to respond. Temperatures
are expected to be right around 32 degrees as precipitation moves in
early this morning and combined with the drier low levels, concerned
that for a brief period, light freezing rain could fall and coat
road surfaces. Road temperature sensors across that area are in the
30 to 32 degree range. This could cause some travel issues,
especially for the morning commute. After coordinating with ILN/JKL,
have opted to issue a SPS to cover the potential slick and icy spots
across the Bluegrass region.

Hi-res models are capturing the band of showers associated with the
initial warming and PV anomaly fairly well, bringing it through
central KY and southern IN early this morning through the
mid-morning hours. Will time the highest POPs during its passage.
The true cold front and upper trough will arrive early to mid
afternoon which could bring additional rain showers. High
temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s
before beginning to fall mid afternoon post frontal.

Wrap around moisture then arrives later this evening and through the
overnight hours. Cross sections and soundings show the moisture
mainly resides in the low levels. As colder air filters in while
moisture exits, there`s still the window for wintry precipitation.
Soundings show loss of ice and saturation only reaches up to about
-5C, so there is a concern for a period of drizzle or freezing
drizzle across the Bluegrass region before enough cold air supports
a changeover to snow flurries or showers. Have added a slight chance
of freezing drizzle to the forecast for the late evening and
overnight hours. Plan on low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

Wrap around stratus is expected to hold in place Thursday night
through a good portion of Friday, especially east of I-65, as
moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion. Plan on a seasonably
cold day with highs only topping out in the 30s. If clouds hang on
longer into the afternoon, it`s possible forecast high temperatures
may be a few degrees too warm.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Late This Weekend...

Sfc high pressure will briefly dominate the area Fri night/Sat.
With light winds and only partly cloudy skies Fri night, temps
should be able to drop into the mid teens to lower 20s for lows.
Clouds will be on the increase Sat ahead of an approaching weather
system with high temps topping out in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Weekend Storm:
--------------

The storm system to watch this weekend will get organized over the
central U.S. on Sat as energy ejects eastward out of an upper low
across the southwest U.S. and another wave dives southeast out of
Canada.  Both waves are well removed from the continental U.S. right
now though and although 0Z GFS/ECMWF came in with surprisingly good
agreement with their solution for this system over the Ohio Valley,
beware that these upper level features still have a good way to
travel before they reach the North American coastline and thus
timing/intensity/phasing could change in coming model runs.  Such
differences are apparent in 0Z GEM/NAM data which have
warmer/farther north solns.  Still given decent agreement between
GFS/GFS ensembles/ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles, did trend the forecast
colder.

Thus, think that precip will overspread the area on Sat night as
perhaps a brief mix and transition over to light snow Sat night over
most locations.  Sunday precipitation is likely over the entire
area.  Models vary on QPF for Sun depending on strength and phasing
of the aforementioned waves and how much moisture they are able to
pull in.  Think that all snow is mostly likely over southern
Indiana, the rain/snow line may hover somewhere over central KY, and
south central KY is likely to see a rain/snow mix perhaps transition
over to a period of all rain.  Sun night precip will continue over
the area with most locations eventually changing over to all snow
before precip ends Sun night or early Mon.  IF this scenario plays
out, portions of the area could see accumulating snow in the Sat
night-Sun night time frame.  HOWEVER, if the warmer solns play out,
then our region would mostly see rain on Sun with perhaps some light
snow or a rain/snow mix possible on the front and back sides of the
system Sat night/Sun night.

Please stay tuned to upcoming forecasts on this weekend`s weather
system.

-------------

Beyond this weekend, the pattern looks to remain fairly active with
a few clipper type systems attempting to bring us precip by mid
week.

Temperatures will likely start out on Monday in the upper 20s/lower
30s (potentially colder in areas that receive snowfall) then
moderate toward mid week closer to seasonal normals.  Temps look to
fall back below normal during the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 555 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Plan on the initial band of precipitation to pass through
BWG/SDF/LEX early this morning, exiting between 14-15z. This will
correspond to when winds begin to mix down to the surface, ending
LLWS threat. Southwest winds will then become gusty, between 20-25
kts. Plan on a dry slot / clear wedge to spread over the area ahead
of the cold front before quickly filling back in with wrap around
clouds as the surface low passes to the north. These clouds should
encompass the entire region by mid afternoon and last through the
TAF period. Current observations upstream are in the 1500 to 2500 ft
range, so below fuel alternate conditions are possible, especially
at SDF/LEX, by evening. Soundings show moisture remains trapped in
the low levels all night and there is the potential for snow
flurries or showers but isn`t likely to produce visibility
restrictions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290832
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Latest analysis shows surface low pressure centered over west
central Illinois while a cold front stretched through central
Missouri into northwest Arkansas. Ahead of this feature, a
tightening pressure gradient and strong 50-60 kt jet between 900 and
800 mb has brought warming temperatures to the Ohio Valley
overnight. After bottoming out in the 20s to to lower 30s, readings
have warmed into the mid 40s in the west while some eastern
locations are holding in the lower 30s.

The sheltered and valley locations across the far eastern and
northeast forecast area have been slower to respond. Temperatures
are expected to be right around 32 degrees as precipitation moves in
early this morning and combined with the drier low levels, concerned
that for a brief period, light freezing rain could fall and coat
road surfaces. Road temperature sensors across that area are in the
30 to 32 degree range. This could cause some travel issues,
especially for the morning commute. After coordinating with ILN/JKL,
have opted to issue a SPS to cover the potential slick and icy spots
across the Bluegrass region.

Hi-res models are capturing the band of showers associated with the
initial warming and PV anomaly fairly well, bringing it through
central KY and southern IN early this morning through the
mid-morning hours. Will time the highest POPs during its passage.
The true cold front and upper trough will arrive early to mid
afternoon which could bring additional rain showers. High
temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s
before beginning to fall mid afternoon post frontal.

Wrap around moisture then arrives later this evening and through the
overnight hours. Cross sections and soundings show the moisture
mainly resides in the low levels. As colder air filters in while
moisture exits, there`s still the window for wintry precipitation.
Soundings show loss of ice and saturation only reaches up to about
-5C, so there is a concern for a period of drizzle or freezing
drizzle across the Bluegrass region before enough cold air supports
a changeover to snow flurries or showers. Have added a slight chance
of freezing drizzle to the forecast for the late evening and
overnight hours. Plan on low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

Wrap around stratus is expected to hold in place Thursday night
through a good portion of Friday, especially east of I-65, as
moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion. Plan on a seasonably
cold day with highs only topping out in the 30s. If clouds hang on
longer into the afternoon, it`s possible forecast high temperatures
may be a few degrees too warm.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Accumulating Snow Possible Late This Weekend...

Sfc high pressure will briefly dominate the area Fri night/Sat.
With light winds and only partly cloudy skies Fri night, temps
should be able to drop into the mid teens to lower 20s for lows.
Clouds will be on the increase Sat ahead of an approaching weather
system with high temps topping out in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Weekend Storm:
--------------

The storm system to watch this weekend will get organized over the
central U.S. on Sat as energy ejects eastward out of an upper low
across the southwest U.S. and another wave dives southeast out of
Canada.  Both waves are well removed from the continental U.S. right
now though and although 0Z GFS/ECMWF came in with surprisingly good
agreement with their solution for this system over the Ohio Valley,
beware that these upper level features still have a good way to
travel before they reach the North American coastline and thus
timing/intensity/phasing could change in coming model runs.  Such
differences are apparent in 0Z GEM/NAM data which have
warmer/farther north solns.  Still given decent agreement between
GFS/GFS ensembles/ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles, did trend the forecast
colder.

Thus, think that precip will overspread the area on Sat night as
perhaps a brief mix and transition over to light snow Sat night over
most locations.  Sunday precipitation is likely over the entire
area.  Models vary on QPF for Sun depending on strength and phasing
of the aforementioned waves and how much moisture they are able to
pull in.  Think that all snow is mostly likely over southern
Indiana, the rain/snow line may hover somewhere over central KY, and
south central KY is likely to see a rain/snow mix perhaps transition
over to a period of all rain.  Sun night precip will continue over
the area with most locations eventually changing over to all snow
before precip ends Sun night or early Mon.  IF this scenario plays
out, portions of the area could see accumulating snow in the Sat
night-Sun night time frame.  HOWEVER, if the warmer solns play out,
then our region would mostly see rain on Sun with perhaps some light
snow or a rain/snow mix possible on the front and back sides of the
system Sat night/Sun night.

Please stay tuned to upcoming forecasts on this weekend`s weather
system.

-------------

Beyond this weekend, the pattern looks to remain fairly active with
a few clipper type systems attempting to bring us precip by mid
week.

Temperatures will likely start out on Monday in the upper 20s/lower
30s (potentially colder in areas that receive snowfall) then
moderate toward mid week closer to seasonal normals.  Temps look to
fall back below normal during the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2015

Surface low currently across southeastern Iowa will push toward
Chicago overnight, bringing a cold front through the TAF sites
during the morning hours. Ahead of this, pressure gradient has begun
to tighten up with southeasterly winds sustained around 15 kts. Plan
on a wind shift to the south and southwesterly toward dawn. A very
strong 55-60 knot jet between 2-3 kft is expected to develop across
the area creating LLWS conditions at all TAF sites from around 09z
through 14z.

Showers ahead of the front are slated to come through during the
morning to early afternoon hours. Surface winds are expected to mix
down to 15 knots, with gusts 20 to 25 kts. Expecting mainly VFR
clouds during the frontal passage. In the wake of the front and
surface low, ceilings will be on the lowering trend, likely dropping
into the MVFR range by late afternoon. There are signals that
fuel-alternate ceilings may be reached at SDF/LEX by mid-evening,
lasting through Thursday night. Lingering low-level moisture
combined with steep lapse rates could result in isolated snow
flurries or even a brief period of drizzle/freezing drizzle after
30.00z. Confidence in this occurring is low but bears watching.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290512
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1212 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Models show a decent area of precipitation associated with a vortmax
moving through the area early tomorrow morning. Have increased pops
a bit around the 12Z time frame for these showers, but kept chances
at 50% or less. Still think we should warm up to above freezing
before this precip begins to fall. Otherwise, just minor edits were
made to bring the forecast in line with current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 306 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Ohio has provided the region with sunny
skies this afternoon.  After starting the morning off in the upper
single digits to the lower teens, temperatures have warmed into the
lower 30s over the northeast/Bluegrass with mainly lower 40s along
and west of the I-65 corridor.  Mostly clear skies are expected this
evening and temperatures will likely cool off back into the upper
20s to the middle 30s.

For tonight, clouds will be on the increase late tonight as the next
weather system approaches from the west/northwest. Temperatures will
likely experience their minimum values after midnight and then start
to rise as southwesterly winds and cloud cover increase.  Some weak
lift may generate a few light rain showers toward dawn, but it
appears the bulk of precipitation will likely hold off until after
sunrise.  Lows tonight will likely bottom out in the mid-upper 20s
in the east/northeast and in the lower 30s in the west.

For Thursday, surface low pressure system will move from the Midwest
into the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front slicing through KY
during the late morning and into the early afternoon.  Gusty
southwest winds will be likely in the morning and we should see a
shift to the west and then northwest during the afternoon hours.
Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH will be the rule with gusts up to 30-35
MPH at times.  A band of showers will likely develop along the
actual frontal boundary with the best coverage along and east of the
I-65 corridor.  Temperatures will spike out ahead of the front.  The
model guidance still has quite the spread in high temperatures.
Using the multi-model consensus, highs look to top out in the
mid-upper 40s in the north with upper 40s to the lower 50s in the
south.  Warmest air will likely stay along and south of the
Cumberland Parkway during the afternoon hours.  Behind the front,
temperatures will fall from NW to SE with readings dropping in the
upper 30s by evening.

For Thursday night, surface cold front should clear the state by
mid-evening.  A cold northwesterly flow will continue across the
region with winds slowly subsiding through the overnight period.
The high resolution models suggest that plenty of light snow showers
will be likely from east-central IN down through east-central KY.
These showers will be forced by the lagging upper trough and
increasingly steep lapse rates.  Best chances of snow will be mainly
east of I-65 and across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.
Minor accumulations of less than an inch will be possible which may
result in some travel issue late Thursday night and early Friday as
surface temperatures drop into the mid-upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

Friday is expected to start out with low level moisture trapped
under the inversion. Perhaps a few flurries could be squeezed out
before low clouds scatter out by afternoon. With the heavier cloud
cover and steady NW winds through much of the day, temps should
struggle staying in the 30s. The surface high center settles near
our NE CWA Friday night with cold overnight lows in the upper teens
and low 20s. Saturday continues the dry trend as high pressure
scoots off to our east under dry NW flow aloft. Will see a decent
recovery in temperatures with highs in the upper 30s NE to low 40s
SW.

Confidence continues to be low for the end of the weekend storm
system as models change with every run. Have seen a fairly dramatic
shift in data with the 12z GFS/ECMWF which have come in later with
the upper jet phase. That results in a weaker surface low moving
across the CWA. This weaker surface low leads to a colder solution
due to less warm air being drawn up ahead of it. The end result is a
snowier system, at the expense of less overall deep moisture to work
with. In contrast, the GEM has continued to come in warmer with a
stronger surface low right over our CWA. The end result of this
solution would be onset of precipitation later in the day on Sunday
and much warmer. P-type would be much more rain changing to a little
snow on the back side. It should be noted that the GEM was the
extreme cold solution only 2 days ago, and now it is on the warm
side of the envelope. That doesn`t necessarily mean that it is wrong.

Decided to lean a bit toward the GFS/ECMWF solution for now to keep
the forecast somewhat consistent. As a result, the overall trend of
the ongoing forecast swings back toward a bit colder with light snow
beginning across much of the area on Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Would likely see a rain line work northward through the day
on Sunday, with the northern half of our CWA mostly snow or a
rain/snow mix. Then, a changeover back to snow crashing south the end
the event Sunday night. This overall setup would bring light accums
to the area, however confidence is not overly high in this playing
out yet. Will continue to play things conservative until models
settle down.

Monday through Wednesday look mainly dry and cold as surface high
pressure builds in. If any snow is on the ground Monday, highs may
not make it out of the 20s in many spots. Lows Monday night are
expected mostly in the mid and upper teens. Tuesday is expected to
recover back into the 30s, along with a milder Tuesday night back in
the 20s. A southern stream system could organize to our south on
Wednesday, with low chance mention for some wintry precipitation
across our south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2015

Surface low currently across southeastern Iowa will push toward
Chicago overnight, bringing a cold front through the TAF sites
during the morning hours. Ahead of this, pressure gradient has begun
to tighten up with southeasterly winds sustained around 15 kts. Plan
on a wind shift to the south and southwesterly toward dawn. A very
strong 55-60 knot jet between 2-3 kft is expected to develop across
the area creating LLWS conditions at all TAF sites from around 09z
through 14z.

Showers ahead of the front are slated to come through during the
morning to early afternoon hours. Surface winds are expected to mix
down to 15 knots, with gusts 20 to 25 kts. Expecting mainly VFR
clouds during the frontal passage. In the wake of the front and
surface low, ceilings will be on the lowering trend, likely dropping
into the MVFR range by late afternoon. There are signals that
fuel-alternate ceilings may be reached at SDF/LEX by mid-evening,
lasting through Thursday night. Lingering low-level moisture
combined with steep lapse rates could result in isolated snow
flurries or even a brief period of drizzle/freezing drizzle after
30.00z. Confidence in this occurring is low but bears watching.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290512
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1212 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Models show a decent area of precipitation associated with a vortmax
moving through the area early tomorrow morning. Have increased pops
a bit around the 12Z time frame for these showers, but kept chances
at 50% or less. Still think we should warm up to above freezing
before this precip begins to fall. Otherwise, just minor edits were
made to bring the forecast in line with current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 306 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Ohio has provided the region with sunny
skies this afternoon.  After starting the morning off in the upper
single digits to the lower teens, temperatures have warmed into the
lower 30s over the northeast/Bluegrass with mainly lower 40s along
and west of the I-65 corridor.  Mostly clear skies are expected this
evening and temperatures will likely cool off back into the upper
20s to the middle 30s.

For tonight, clouds will be on the increase late tonight as the next
weather system approaches from the west/northwest. Temperatures will
likely experience their minimum values after midnight and then start
to rise as southwesterly winds and cloud cover increase.  Some weak
lift may generate a few light rain showers toward dawn, but it
appears the bulk of precipitation will likely hold off until after
sunrise.  Lows tonight will likely bottom out in the mid-upper 20s
in the east/northeast and in the lower 30s in the west.

For Thursday, surface low pressure system will move from the Midwest
into the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front slicing through KY
during the late morning and into the early afternoon.  Gusty
southwest winds will be likely in the morning and we should see a
shift to the west and then northwest during the afternoon hours.
Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH will be the rule with gusts up to 30-35
MPH at times.  A band of showers will likely develop along the
actual frontal boundary with the best coverage along and east of the
I-65 corridor.  Temperatures will spike out ahead of the front.  The
model guidance still has quite the spread in high temperatures.
Using the multi-model consensus, highs look to top out in the
mid-upper 40s in the north with upper 40s to the lower 50s in the
south.  Warmest air will likely stay along and south of the
Cumberland Parkway during the afternoon hours.  Behind the front,
temperatures will fall from NW to SE with readings dropping in the
upper 30s by evening.

For Thursday night, surface cold front should clear the state by
mid-evening.  A cold northwesterly flow will continue across the
region with winds slowly subsiding through the overnight period.
The high resolution models suggest that plenty of light snow showers
will be likely from east-central IN down through east-central KY.
These showers will be forced by the lagging upper trough and
increasingly steep lapse rates.  Best chances of snow will be mainly
east of I-65 and across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.
Minor accumulations of less than an inch will be possible which may
result in some travel issue late Thursday night and early Friday as
surface temperatures drop into the mid-upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

Friday is expected to start out with low level moisture trapped
under the inversion. Perhaps a few flurries could be squeezed out
before low clouds scatter out by afternoon. With the heavier cloud
cover and steady NW winds through much of the day, temps should
struggle staying in the 30s. The surface high center settles near
our NE CWA Friday night with cold overnight lows in the upper teens
and low 20s. Saturday continues the dry trend as high pressure
scoots off to our east under dry NW flow aloft. Will see a decent
recovery in temperatures with highs in the upper 30s NE to low 40s
SW.

Confidence continues to be low for the end of the weekend storm
system as models change with every run. Have seen a fairly dramatic
shift in data with the 12z GFS/ECMWF which have come in later with
the upper jet phase. That results in a weaker surface low moving
across the CWA. This weaker surface low leads to a colder solution
due to less warm air being drawn up ahead of it. The end result is a
snowier system, at the expense of less overall deep moisture to work
with. In contrast, the GEM has continued to come in warmer with a
stronger surface low right over our CWA. The end result of this
solution would be onset of precipitation later in the day on Sunday
and much warmer. P-type would be much more rain changing to a little
snow on the back side. It should be noted that the GEM was the
extreme cold solution only 2 days ago, and now it is on the warm
side of the envelope. That doesn`t necessarily mean that it is wrong.

Decided to lean a bit toward the GFS/ECMWF solution for now to keep
the forecast somewhat consistent. As a result, the overall trend of
the ongoing forecast swings back toward a bit colder with light snow
beginning across much of the area on Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Would likely see a rain line work northward through the day
on Sunday, with the northern half of our CWA mostly snow or a
rain/snow mix. Then, a changeover back to snow crashing south the end
the event Sunday night. This overall setup would bring light accums
to the area, however confidence is not overly high in this playing
out yet. Will continue to play things conservative until models
settle down.

Monday through Wednesday look mainly dry and cold as surface high
pressure builds in. If any snow is on the ground Monday, highs may
not make it out of the 20s in many spots. Lows Monday night are
expected mostly in the mid and upper teens. Tuesday is expected to
recover back into the 30s, along with a milder Tuesday night back in
the 20s. A southern stream system could organize to our south on
Wednesday, with low chance mention for some wintry precipitation
across our south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2015

Surface low currently across southeastern Iowa will push toward
Chicago overnight, bringing a cold front through the TAF sites
during the morning hours. Ahead of this, pressure gradient has begun
to tighten up with southeasterly winds sustained around 15 kts. Plan
on a wind shift to the south and southwesterly toward dawn. A very
strong 55-60 knot jet between 2-3 kft is expected to develop across
the area creating LLWS conditions at all TAF sites from around 09z
through 14z.

Showers ahead of the front are slated to come through during the
morning to early afternoon hours. Surface winds are expected to mix
down to 15 knots, with gusts 20 to 25 kts. Expecting mainly VFR
clouds during the frontal passage. In the wake of the front and
surface low, ceilings will be on the lowering trend, likely dropping
into the MVFR range by late afternoon. There are signals that
fuel-alternate ceilings may be reached at SDF/LEX by mid-evening,
lasting through Thursday night. Lingering low-level moisture
combined with steep lapse rates could result in isolated snow
flurries or even a brief period of drizzle/freezing drizzle after
30.00z. Confidence in this occurring is low but bears watching.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Models show a decent area of precipitation associated with a vortmax
moving through the area early tomorrow morning. Have increased pops
a bit around the 12Z time frame for these showers, but kept chances
at 50% or less. Still think we should warm up to above freezing
before this precip begins to fall. Otherwise, just minor edits were
made to bring the forecast in line with current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 306 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Ohio has provided the region with sunny
skies this afternoon.  After starting the morning off in the upper
single digits to the lower teens, temperatures have warmed into the
lower 30s over the northeast/Bluegrass with mainly lower 40s along
and west of the I-65 corridor.  Mostly clear skies are expected this
evening and temperatures will likely cool off back into the upper
20s to the middle 30s.

For tonight, clouds will be on the increase late tonight as the next
weather system approaches from the west/northwest. Temperatures will
likely experience their minimum values after midnight and then start
to rise as southwesterly winds and cloud cover increase.  Some weak
lift may generate a few light rain showers toward dawn, but it
appears the bulk of precipitation will likely hold off until after
sunrise.  Lows tonight will likely bottom out in the mid-upper 20s
in the east/northeast and in the lower 30s in the west.

For Thursday, surface low pressure system will move from the Midwest
into the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front slicing through KY
during the late morning and into the early afternoon.  Gusty
southwest winds will be likely in the morning and we should see a
shift to the west and then northwest during the afternoon hours.
Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH will be the rule with gusts up to 30-35
MPH at times.  A band of showers will likely develop along the
actual frontal boundary with the best coverage along and east of the
I-65 corridor.  Temperatures will spike out ahead of the front.  The
model guidance still has quite the spread in high temperatures.
Using the multi-model consensus, highs look to top out in the
mid-upper 40s in the north with upper 40s to the lower 50s in the
south.  Warmest air will likely stay along and south of the
Cumberland Parkway during the afternoon hours.  Behind the front,
temperatures will fall from NW to SE with readings dropping in the
upper 30s by evening.

For Thursday night, surface cold front should clear the state by
mid-evening.  A cold northwesterly flow will continue across the
region with winds slowly subsiding through the overnight period.
The high resolution models suggest that plenty of light snow showers
will be likely from east-central IN down through east-central KY.
These showers will be forced by the lagging upper trough and
increasingly steep lapse rates.  Best chances of snow will be mainly
east of I-65 and across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.
Minor accumulations of less than an inch will be possible which may
result in some travel issue late Thursday night and early Friday as
surface temperatures drop into the mid-upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

Friday is expected to start out with low level moisture trapped
under the inversion. Perhaps a few flurries could be squeezed out
before low clouds scatter out by afternoon. With the heavier cloud
cover and steady NW winds through much of the day, temps should
struggle staying in the 30s. The surface high center settles near
our NE CWA Friday night with cold overnight lows in the upper teens
and low 20s. Saturday continues the dry trend as high pressure
scoots off to our east under dry NW flow aloft. Will see a decent
recovery in temperatures with highs in the upper 30s NE to low 40s
SW.

Confidence continues to be low for the end of the weekend storm
system as models change with every run. Have seen a fairly dramatic
shift in data with the 12z GFS/ECMWF which have come in later with
the upper jet phase. That results in a weaker surface low moving
across the CWA. This weaker surface low leads to a colder solution
due to less warm air being drawn up ahead of it. The end result is a
snowier system, at the expense of less overall deep moisture to work
with. In contrast, the GEM has continued to come in warmer with a
stronger surface low right over our CWA. The end result of this
solution would be onset of precipitation later in the day on Sunday
and much warmer. P-type would be much more rain changing to a little
snow on the back side. It should be noted that the GEM was the
extreme cold solution only 2 days ago, and now it is on the warm
side of the envelope. That doesn`t necessarily mean that it is wrong.

Decided to lean a bit toward the GFS/ECMWF solution for now to keep
the forecast somewhat consistent. As a result, the overall trend of
the ongoing forecast swings back toward a bit colder with light snow
beginning across much of the area on Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Would likely see a rain line work northward through the day
on Sunday, with the northern half of our CWA mostly snow or a
rain/snow mix. Then, a changeover back to snow crashing south the end
the event Sunday night. This overall setup would bring light accums
to the area, however confidence is not overly high in this playing
out yet. Will continue to play things conservative until models
settle down.

Monday through Wednesday look mainly dry and cold as surface high
pressure builds in. If any snow is on the ground Monday, highs may
not make it out of the 20s in many spots. Lows Monday night are
expected mostly in the mid and upper teens. Tuesday is expected to
recover back into the 30s, along with a milder Tuesday night back in
the 20s. A southern stream system could organize to our south on
Wednesday, with low chance mention for some wintry precipitation
across our south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

There are several concerns for this TAF period as a front approaches
tonight and moves through the area tomorrow. Winds this evening
will diminish for a bit, but are expected to pick up from the south
during the overnight hours as the pressure gradient tightens. A low
level jet will develop with winds at 1800-2000 feet increasing to
45-50 knots. Because of this, low level wind shear has been added to
all TAF sites for the overnight period starting around 08-09Z and
ending around 13-14Z.

Wind speeds will continue to increase tomorrow morning and become
gusty. Sustained winds out of the southwest will be around 14-18
knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. Clouds will be on the increase
tonight with bases lowering through the day tomorrow. Think at least
LEX and SDF will drop to high end MVFR by mid day tomorrow. Given
showers will be accompanying the front, have also added in VCSH to
all the TAF sites.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Models show a decent area of precipitation associated with a vortmax
moving through the area early tomorrow morning. Have increased pops
a bit around the 12Z time frame for these showers, but kept chances
at 50% or less. Still think we should warm up to above freezing
before this precip begins to fall. Otherwise, just minor edits were
made to bring the forecast in line with current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 306 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Ohio has provided the region with sunny
skies this afternoon.  After starting the morning off in the upper
single digits to the lower teens, temperatures have warmed into the
lower 30s over the northeast/Bluegrass with mainly lower 40s along
and west of the I-65 corridor.  Mostly clear skies are expected this
evening and temperatures will likely cool off back into the upper
20s to the middle 30s.

For tonight, clouds will be on the increase late tonight as the next
weather system approaches from the west/northwest. Temperatures will
likely experience their minimum values after midnight and then start
to rise as southwesterly winds and cloud cover increase.  Some weak
lift may generate a few light rain showers toward dawn, but it
appears the bulk of precipitation will likely hold off until after
sunrise.  Lows tonight will likely bottom out in the mid-upper 20s
in the east/northeast and in the lower 30s in the west.

For Thursday, surface low pressure system will move from the Midwest
into the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front slicing through KY
during the late morning and into the early afternoon.  Gusty
southwest winds will be likely in the morning and we should see a
shift to the west and then northwest during the afternoon hours.
Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH will be the rule with gusts up to 30-35
MPH at times.  A band of showers will likely develop along the
actual frontal boundary with the best coverage along and east of the
I-65 corridor.  Temperatures will spike out ahead of the front.  The
model guidance still has quite the spread in high temperatures.
Using the multi-model consensus, highs look to top out in the
mid-upper 40s in the north with upper 40s to the lower 50s in the
south.  Warmest air will likely stay along and south of the
Cumberland Parkway during the afternoon hours.  Behind the front,
temperatures will fall from NW to SE with readings dropping in the
upper 30s by evening.

For Thursday night, surface cold front should clear the state by
mid-evening.  A cold northwesterly flow will continue across the
region with winds slowly subsiding through the overnight period.
The high resolution models suggest that plenty of light snow showers
will be likely from east-central IN down through east-central KY.
These showers will be forced by the lagging upper trough and
increasingly steep lapse rates.  Best chances of snow will be mainly
east of I-65 and across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.
Minor accumulations of less than an inch will be possible which may
result in some travel issue late Thursday night and early Friday as
surface temperatures drop into the mid-upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

Friday is expected to start out with low level moisture trapped
under the inversion. Perhaps a few flurries could be squeezed out
before low clouds scatter out by afternoon. With the heavier cloud
cover and steady NW winds through much of the day, temps should
struggle staying in the 30s. The surface high center settles near
our NE CWA Friday night with cold overnight lows in the upper teens
and low 20s. Saturday continues the dry trend as high pressure
scoots off to our east under dry NW flow aloft. Will see a decent
recovery in temperatures with highs in the upper 30s NE to low 40s
SW.

Confidence continues to be low for the end of the weekend storm
system as models change with every run. Have seen a fairly dramatic
shift in data with the 12z GFS/ECMWF which have come in later with
the upper jet phase. That results in a weaker surface low moving
across the CWA. This weaker surface low leads to a colder solution
due to less warm air being drawn up ahead of it. The end result is a
snowier system, at the expense of less overall deep moisture to work
with. In contrast, the GEM has continued to come in warmer with a
stronger surface low right over our CWA. The end result of this
solution would be onset of precipitation later in the day on Sunday
and much warmer. P-type would be much more rain changing to a little
snow on the back side. It should be noted that the GEM was the
extreme cold solution only 2 days ago, and now it is on the warm
side of the envelope. That doesn`t necessarily mean that it is wrong.

Decided to lean a bit toward the GFS/ECMWF solution for now to keep
the forecast somewhat consistent. As a result, the overall trend of
the ongoing forecast swings back toward a bit colder with light snow
beginning across much of the area on Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Would likely see a rain line work northward through the day
on Sunday, with the northern half of our CWA mostly snow or a
rain/snow mix. Then, a changeover back to snow crashing south the end
the event Sunday night. This overall setup would bring light accums
to the area, however confidence is not overly high in this playing
out yet. Will continue to play things conservative until models
settle down.

Monday through Wednesday look mainly dry and cold as surface high
pressure builds in. If any snow is on the ground Monday, highs may
not make it out of the 20s in many spots. Lows Monday night are
expected mostly in the mid and upper teens. Tuesday is expected to
recover back into the 30s, along with a milder Tuesday night back in
the 20s. A southern stream system could organize to our south on
Wednesday, with low chance mention for some wintry precipitation
across our south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

There are several concerns for this TAF period as a front approaches
tonight and moves through the area tomorrow. Winds this evening
will diminish for a bit, but are expected to pick up from the south
during the overnight hours as the pressure gradient tightens. A low
level jet will develop with winds at 1800-2000 feet increasing to
45-50 knots. Because of this, low level wind shear has been added to
all TAF sites for the overnight period starting around 08-09Z and
ending around 13-14Z.

Wind speeds will continue to increase tomorrow morning and become
gusty. Sustained winds out of the southwest will be around 14-18
knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. Clouds will be on the increase
tonight with bases lowering through the day tomorrow. Think at least
LEX and SDF will drop to high end MVFR by mid day tomorrow. Given
showers will be accompanying the front, have also added in VCSH to
all the TAF sites.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 282251
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
551 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 306 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Ohio has provided the region with sunny
skies this afternoon.  After starting the morning off in the upper
single digits to the lower teens, temperatures have warmed into the
lower 30s over the northeast/Bluegrass with mainly lower 40s along
and west of the I-65 corridor.  Mostly clear skies are expected this
evening and temperatures will likely cool off back into the upper
20s to the middle 30s.

For tonight, clouds will be on the increase late tonight as the next
weather system approaches from the west/northwest. Temperatures will
likely experience their minimum values after midnight and then start
to rise as southwesterly winds and cloud cover increase.  Some weak
lift may generate a few light rain showers toward dawn, but it
appears the bulk of precipitation will likely hold off until after
sunrise.  Lows tonight will likely bottom out in the mid-upper 20s
in the east/northeast and in the lower 30s in the west.

For Thursday, surface low pressure system will move from the Midwest
into the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front slicing through KY
during the late morning and into the early afternoon.  Gusty
southwest winds will be likely in the morning and we should see a
shift to the west and then northwest during the afternoon hours.
Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH will be the rule with gusts up to 30-35
MPH at times.  A band of showers will likely develop along the
actual frontal boundary with the best coverage along and east of the
I-65 corridor.  Temperatures will spike out ahead of the front.  The
model guidance still has quite the spread in high temperatures.
Using the multi-model consensus, highs look to top out in the
mid-upper 40s in the north with upper 40s to the lower 50s in the
south.  Warmest air will likely stay along and south of the
Cumberland Parkway during the afternoon hours.  Behind the front,
temperatures will fall from NW to SE with readings dropping in the
upper 30s by evening.

For Thursday night, surface cold front should clear the state by
mid-evening.  A cold northwesterly flow will continue across the
region with winds slowly subsiding through the overnight period.
The high resolution models suggest that plenty of light snow showers
will be likely from east-central IN down through east-central KY.
These showers will be forced by the lagging upper trough and
increasingly steep lapse rates.  Best chances of snow will be mainly
east of I-65 and across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.
Minor accumulations of less than an inch will be possible which may
result in some travel issue late Thursday night and early Friday as
surface temperatures drop into the mid-upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

Friday is expected to start out with low level moisture trapped
under the inversion. Perhaps a few flurries could be squeezed out
before low clouds scatter out by afternoon. With the heavier cloud
cover and steady NW winds through much of the day, temps should
struggle staying in the 30s. The surface high center settles near
our NE CWA Friday night with cold overnight lows in the upper teens
and low 20s. Saturday continues the dry trend as high pressure
scoots off to our east under dry NW flow aloft. Will see a decent
recovery in temperatures with highs in the upper 30s NE to low 40s
SW.

Confidence continues to be low for the end of the weekend storm
system as models change with every run. Have seen a fairly dramatic
shift in data with the 12z GFS/ECMWF which have come in later with
the upper jet phase. That results in a weaker surface low moving
across the CWA. This weaker surface low leads to a colder solution
due to less warm air being drawn up ahead of it. The end result is a
snowier system, at the expense of less overall deep moisture to work
with. In contrast, the GEM has continued to come in warmer with a
stronger surface low right over our CWA. The end result of this
solution would be onset of precipitation later in the day on Sunday
and much warmer. P-type would be much more rain changing to a little
snow on the back side. It should be noted that the GEM was the
extreme cold solution only 2 days ago, and now it is on the warm
side of the envelope. That doesn`t necessarily mean that it is wrong.

Decided to lean a bit toward the GFS/ECMWF solution for now to keep
the forecast somewhat consistent. As a result, the overall trend of
the ongoing forecast swings back toward a bit colder with light snow
beginning across much of the area on Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Would likely see a rain line work northward through the day
on Sunday, with the northern half of our CWA mostly snow or a
rain/snow mix. Then, a changeover back to snow crashing south the end
the event Sunday night. This overall setup would bring light accums
to the area, however confidence is not overly high in this playing
out yet. Will continue to play things conservative until models
settle down.

Monday through Wednesday look mainly dry and cold as surface high
pressure builds in. If any snow is on the ground Monday, highs may
not make it out of the 20s in many spots. Lows Monday night are
expected mostly in the mid and upper teens. Tuesday is expected to
recover back into the 30s, along with a milder Tuesday night back in
the 20s. A southern stream system could organize to our south on
Wednesday, with low chance mention for some wintry precipitation
across our south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

There are several concerns for this TAF period as a front approaches
tonight and moves through the area tomorrow. Winds this evening
will diminish for a bit, but are expected to pick up from the south
during the overnight hours as the pressure gradient tightens. A low
level jet will develop with winds at 1800-2000 feet increasing to
45-50 knots. Because of this, low level wind shear has been added to
all TAF sites for the overnight period starting around 08-09Z and
ending around 13-14Z.

Wind speeds will continue to increase tomorrow morning and become
gusty. Sustained winds out of the southwest will be around 14-18
knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. Clouds will be on the increase
tonight with bases lowering through the day tomorrow. Think at least
LEX and SDF will drop to high end MVFR by mid day tomorrow. Given
showers will be accompanying the front, have also added in VCSH to
all the TAF sites.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 282251
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
551 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 306 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Ohio has provided the region with sunny
skies this afternoon.  After starting the morning off in the upper
single digits to the lower teens, temperatures have warmed into the
lower 30s over the northeast/Bluegrass with mainly lower 40s along
and west of the I-65 corridor.  Mostly clear skies are expected this
evening and temperatures will likely cool off back into the upper
20s to the middle 30s.

For tonight, clouds will be on the increase late tonight as the next
weather system approaches from the west/northwest. Temperatures will
likely experience their minimum values after midnight and then start
to rise as southwesterly winds and cloud cover increase.  Some weak
lift may generate a few light rain showers toward dawn, but it
appears the bulk of precipitation will likely hold off until after
sunrise.  Lows tonight will likely bottom out in the mid-upper 20s
in the east/northeast and in the lower 30s in the west.

For Thursday, surface low pressure system will move from the Midwest
into the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front slicing through KY
during the late morning and into the early afternoon.  Gusty
southwest winds will be likely in the morning and we should see a
shift to the west and then northwest during the afternoon hours.
Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH will be the rule with gusts up to 30-35
MPH at times.  A band of showers will likely develop along the
actual frontal boundary with the best coverage along and east of the
I-65 corridor.  Temperatures will spike out ahead of the front.  The
model guidance still has quite the spread in high temperatures.
Using the multi-model consensus, highs look to top out in the
mid-upper 40s in the north with upper 40s to the lower 50s in the
south.  Warmest air will likely stay along and south of the
Cumberland Parkway during the afternoon hours.  Behind the front,
temperatures will fall from NW to SE with readings dropping in the
upper 30s by evening.

For Thursday night, surface cold front should clear the state by
mid-evening.  A cold northwesterly flow will continue across the
region with winds slowly subsiding through the overnight period.
The high resolution models suggest that plenty of light snow showers
will be likely from east-central IN down through east-central KY.
These showers will be forced by the lagging upper trough and
increasingly steep lapse rates.  Best chances of snow will be mainly
east of I-65 and across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.
Minor accumulations of less than an inch will be possible which may
result in some travel issue late Thursday night and early Friday as
surface temperatures drop into the mid-upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

Friday is expected to start out with low level moisture trapped
under the inversion. Perhaps a few flurries could be squeezed out
before low clouds scatter out by afternoon. With the heavier cloud
cover and steady NW winds through much of the day, temps should
struggle staying in the 30s. The surface high center settles near
our NE CWA Friday night with cold overnight lows in the upper teens
and low 20s. Saturday continues the dry trend as high pressure
scoots off to our east under dry NW flow aloft. Will see a decent
recovery in temperatures with highs in the upper 30s NE to low 40s
SW.

Confidence continues to be low for the end of the weekend storm
system as models change with every run. Have seen a fairly dramatic
shift in data with the 12z GFS/ECMWF which have come in later with
the upper jet phase. That results in a weaker surface low moving
across the CWA. This weaker surface low leads to a colder solution
due to less warm air being drawn up ahead of it. The end result is a
snowier system, at the expense of less overall deep moisture to work
with. In contrast, the GEM has continued to come in warmer with a
stronger surface low right over our CWA. The end result of this
solution would be onset of precipitation later in the day on Sunday
and much warmer. P-type would be much more rain changing to a little
snow on the back side. It should be noted that the GEM was the
extreme cold solution only 2 days ago, and now it is on the warm
side of the envelope. That doesn`t necessarily mean that it is wrong.

Decided to lean a bit toward the GFS/ECMWF solution for now to keep
the forecast somewhat consistent. As a result, the overall trend of
the ongoing forecast swings back toward a bit colder with light snow
beginning across much of the area on Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Would likely see a rain line work northward through the day
on Sunday, with the northern half of our CWA mostly snow or a
rain/snow mix. Then, a changeover back to snow crashing south the end
the event Sunday night. This overall setup would bring light accums
to the area, however confidence is not overly high in this playing
out yet. Will continue to play things conservative until models
settle down.

Monday through Wednesday look mainly dry and cold as surface high
pressure builds in. If any snow is on the ground Monday, highs may
not make it out of the 20s in many spots. Lows Monday night are
expected mostly in the mid and upper teens. Tuesday is expected to
recover back into the 30s, along with a milder Tuesday night back in
the 20s. A southern stream system could organize to our south on
Wednesday, with low chance mention for some wintry precipitation
across our south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

There are several concerns for this TAF period as a front approaches
tonight and moves through the area tomorrow. Winds this evening
will diminish for a bit, but are expected to pick up from the south
during the overnight hours as the pressure gradient tightens. A low
level jet will develop with winds at 1800-2000 feet increasing to
45-50 knots. Because of this, low level wind shear has been added to
all TAF sites for the overnight period starting around 08-09Z and
ending around 13-14Z.

Wind speeds will continue to increase tomorrow morning and become
gusty. Sustained winds out of the southwest will be around 14-18
knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. Clouds will be on the increase
tonight with bases lowering through the day tomorrow. Think at least
LEX and SDF will drop to high end MVFR by mid day tomorrow. Given
showers will be accompanying the front, have also added in VCSH to
all the TAF sites.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 282011
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 306 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Ohio has provided the region with sunny
skies this afternoon.  After starting the morning off in the upper
single digits to the lower teens, temperatures have warmed into the
lower 30s over the northeast/Bluegrass with mainly lower 40s along
and west of the I-65 corridor.  Mostly clear skies are expected this
evening and temperatures will likely cool off back into the upper
20s to the middle 30s.

For tonight, clouds will be on the increase late tonight as the next
weather system approaches from the west/northwest. Temperatures will
likely experience their minimum values after midnight and then start
to rise as southwesterly winds and cloud cover increase.  Some weak
lift may generate a few light rain showers toward dawn, but it
appears the bulk of precipitation will likely hold off until after
sunrise.  Lows tonight will likely bottom out in the mid-upper 20s
in the east/northeast and in the lower 30s in the west.

For Thursday, surface low pressure system will move from the Midwest
into the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front slicing through KY
during the late morning and into the early afternoon.  Gusty
southwest winds will be likely in the morning and we should see a
shift to the west and then northwest during the afternoon hours.
Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH will be the rule with gusts up to 30-35
MPH at times.  A band of showers will likely develop along the
actual frontal boundary with the best coverage along and east of the
I-65 corridor.  Temperatures will spike out ahead of the front.  The
model guidance still has quite the spread in high temperatures.
Using the multi-model consensus, highs look to top out in the
mid-upper 40s in the north with upper 40s to the lower 50s in the
south.  Warmest air will likely stay along and south of the
Cumberland Parkway during the afternoon hours.  Behind the front,
temperatures will fall from NW to SE with readings dropping in the
upper 30s by evening.

For Thursday night, surface cold front should clear the state by
mid-evening.  A cold northwesterly flow will continue across the
region with winds slowly subsiding through the overnight period.
The high resolution models suggest that plenty of light snow showers
will be likely from east-central IN down through east-central KY.
These showers will be forced by the lagging upper trough and
increasingly steep lapse rates.  Best chances of snow will be mainly
east of I-65 and across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.
Minor accumulations of less than an inch will be possible which may
result in some travel issue late Thursday night and early Friday as
surface temperatures drop into the mid-upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

Friday is expected to start out with low level moisture trapped
under the inversion. Perhaps a few flurries could be squeezed out
before low clouds scatter out by afternoon. With the heavier cloud
cover and steady NW winds through much of the day, temps should
struggle staying in the 30s. The surface high center settles near
our NE CWA Friday night with cold overnight lows in the upper teens
and low 20s. Saturday continues the dry trend as high pressure
scoots off to our east under dry NW flow aloft. Will see a decent
recovery in temperatures with highs in the upper 30s NE to low 40s
SW.

Confidence continues to be low for the end of the weekend storm
system as models change with every run. Have seen a fairly dramatic
shift in data with the 12z GFS/ECMWF which have come in later with
the upper jet phase. That results in a weaker surface low moving
across the CWA. This weaker surface low leads to a colder solution
due to less warm air being drawn up ahead of it. The end result is a
snowier system, at the expense of less overall deep moisture to work
with. In contrast, the GEM has continued to come in warmer with a
stronger surface low right over our CWA. The end result of this
solution would be onset of precipitation later in the day on Sunday
and much warmer. P-type would be much more rain changing to a little
snow on the back side. It should be noted that the GEM was the
extreme cold solution only 2 days ago, and now it is on the warm
side of the envelope. That doesn`t necessarily mean that it is wrong.

Decided to lean a bit toward the GFS/ECMWF solution for now to keep
the forecast somewhat consistent. As a result, the overall trend of
the ongoing forecast swings back toward a bit colder with light snow
beginning across much of the area on Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Would likely see a rain line work northward through the day
on Sunday, with the northern half of our CWA mostly snow or a
rain/snow mix. Then, a changeover back to snow crashing south the end
the event Sunday night. This overall setup would bring light accums
to the area, however confidence is not overly high in this playing
out yet. Will continue to play things conservative until models
settle down.

Monday through Wednesday look mainly dry and cold as surface high
pressure builds in. If any snow is on the ground Monday, highs may
not make it out of the 20s in many spots. Lows Monday night are
expected mostly in the mid and upper teens. Tuesday is expected to
recover back into the 30s, along with a milder Tuesday night back in
the 20s. A southern stream system could organize to our south on
Wednesday, with low chance mention for some wintry precipitation
across our south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1209 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure will continue to drift through the region today and
provide the terminals with mainly clear skies this afternoon and
into the evening hours.  The high will push off to the east tonight
with surface winds shifting to the southwest.  High clouds will push
in from the west late this evening with ceilings lowering throughout
the night.  Surface winds will also pick up toward morning as the
pressure gradient increases.  Widely scattered light precipitation
will be possible toward the end of the period, but the low coverage
precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 282011
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 306 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Ohio has provided the region with sunny
skies this afternoon.  After starting the morning off in the upper
single digits to the lower teens, temperatures have warmed into the
lower 30s over the northeast/Bluegrass with mainly lower 40s along
and west of the I-65 corridor.  Mostly clear skies are expected this
evening and temperatures will likely cool off back into the upper
20s to the middle 30s.

For tonight, clouds will be on the increase late tonight as the next
weather system approaches from the west/northwest. Temperatures will
likely experience their minimum values after midnight and then start
to rise as southwesterly winds and cloud cover increase.  Some weak
lift may generate a few light rain showers toward dawn, but it
appears the bulk of precipitation will likely hold off until after
sunrise.  Lows tonight will likely bottom out in the mid-upper 20s
in the east/northeast and in the lower 30s in the west.

For Thursday, surface low pressure system will move from the Midwest
into the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front slicing through KY
during the late morning and into the early afternoon.  Gusty
southwest winds will be likely in the morning and we should see a
shift to the west and then northwest during the afternoon hours.
Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH will be the rule with gusts up to 30-35
MPH at times.  A band of showers will likely develop along the
actual frontal boundary with the best coverage along and east of the
I-65 corridor.  Temperatures will spike out ahead of the front.  The
model guidance still has quite the spread in high temperatures.
Using the multi-model consensus, highs look to top out in the
mid-upper 40s in the north with upper 40s to the lower 50s in the
south.  Warmest air will likely stay along and south of the
Cumberland Parkway during the afternoon hours.  Behind the front,
temperatures will fall from NW to SE with readings dropping in the
upper 30s by evening.

For Thursday night, surface cold front should clear the state by
mid-evening.  A cold northwesterly flow will continue across the
region with winds slowly subsiding through the overnight period.
The high resolution models suggest that plenty of light snow showers
will be likely from east-central IN down through east-central KY.
These showers will be forced by the lagging upper trough and
increasingly steep lapse rates.  Best chances of snow will be mainly
east of I-65 and across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.
Minor accumulations of less than an inch will be possible which may
result in some travel issue late Thursday night and early Friday as
surface temperatures drop into the mid-upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

Friday is expected to start out with low level moisture trapped
under the inversion. Perhaps a few flurries could be squeezed out
before low clouds scatter out by afternoon. With the heavier cloud
cover and steady NW winds through much of the day, temps should
struggle staying in the 30s. The surface high center settles near
our NE CWA Friday night with cold overnight lows in the upper teens
and low 20s. Saturday continues the dry trend as high pressure
scoots off to our east under dry NW flow aloft. Will see a decent
recovery in temperatures with highs in the upper 30s NE to low 40s
SW.

Confidence continues to be low for the end of the weekend storm
system as models change with every run. Have seen a fairly dramatic
shift in data with the 12z GFS/ECMWF which have come in later with
the upper jet phase. That results in a weaker surface low moving
across the CWA. This weaker surface low leads to a colder solution
due to less warm air being drawn up ahead of it. The end result is a
snowier system, at the expense of less overall deep moisture to work
with. In contrast, the GEM has continued to come in warmer with a
stronger surface low right over our CWA. The end result of this
solution would be onset of precipitation later in the day on Sunday
and much warmer. P-type would be much more rain changing to a little
snow on the back side. It should be noted that the GEM was the
extreme cold solution only 2 days ago, and now it is on the warm
side of the envelope. That doesn`t necessarily mean that it is wrong.

Decided to lean a bit toward the GFS/ECMWF solution for now to keep
the forecast somewhat consistent. As a result, the overall trend of
the ongoing forecast swings back toward a bit colder with light snow
beginning across much of the area on Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Would likely see a rain line work northward through the day
on Sunday, with the northern half of our CWA mostly snow or a
rain/snow mix. Then, a changeover back to snow crashing south the end
the event Sunday night. This overall setup would bring light accums
to the area, however confidence is not overly high in this playing
out yet. Will continue to play things conservative until models
settle down.

Monday through Wednesday look mainly dry and cold as surface high
pressure builds in. If any snow is on the ground Monday, highs may
not make it out of the 20s in many spots. Lows Monday night are
expected mostly in the mid and upper teens. Tuesday is expected to
recover back into the 30s, along with a milder Tuesday night back in
the 20s. A southern stream system could organize to our south on
Wednesday, with low chance mention for some wintry precipitation
across our south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1209 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure will continue to drift through the region today and
provide the terminals with mainly clear skies this afternoon and
into the evening hours.  The high will push off to the east tonight
with surface winds shifting to the southwest.  High clouds will push
in from the west late this evening with ceilings lowering throughout
the night.  Surface winds will also pick up toward morning as the
pressure gradient increases.  Widely scattered light precipitation
will be possible toward the end of the period, but the low coverage
precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1209 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley today will provide us with
mostly sunny skies, light breezes, and temperatures just a few
degrees cooler than normal.

Tonight the high will advance to the East Coast as developing low
pressure moves from Omaha to Chicago.  Temperatures will likely
bottom out by midnight and then begin to creep back up as winds turn
southwesterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will increase
but little if any measurable precipitation is expected as dry air in
the low levels will take some time to overcome.  Nevertheless, if
any precipitation does make it to the surface, it could be in the
form of a very light wintry mix over the Blue Grass with very light
rain elsewhere.  The best chance for precipitation will be after 4am.

Light rain chances will increase on Thursday as the Chicago low
heads for Toronto and swings its trailing cold front through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Moisture is shallow and rainfall
amounts are expected to be on the order of a tenth of an inch.

Southwest winds could get rather gusty Thursday morning and early
afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.  These winds will
help pull temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s by midday, but
then temps will fall back into the low and mid 40s by evening behind
the cold front.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

The main focus in the long term period is on the potential wintry
mix late this weekend across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Thursday night the weather pattern is expected to feature the
departing clipper strengthening across the Northeast US while strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Lingering moisture trapped within a low level inversion
will likely keep clouds in place east of I-65 Thursday night. The
north/northeast flow will act to anchor the moisture in place Friday
morning, so there is some question on how much clearing will take
place across the northeastern portions of the forecast area during
the day. The 28.00z NAM soundings are the most aggressive with this
inversion/moisture setup, holding a stratus deck in place east/north
of Louisville metro. For now, incorporated a gradual but delayed
clearing trend Friday afternoon. Other areas likely to see more
sunshine as the surface high continues to build southeastward. It`ll
be a seasonably cool day with high temperatures a couple degrees
either side of 32F for most. The exception will be across
south-central KY where mid/upper 30s are expected.

For Saturday, zonal to weak ridging flow moves overhead as the
southwest US trough digs all the way south of the US border. We`ll
likely start off seasonably cold with good radiational cooling
conditions Friday night but rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s
with a fair amount of sunshine and light winds.

Now onto the late weekend system. The 28.00z guidance wasn`t much of
a confidence booster as models have yet to stabilize on a particular
solution or placement of synoptic features. The lack of run to run
and model to model consistency leaves a lot to be desired in regard
to precipitation type late Saturday night through early Monday
morning. The 28.00z GFS/GEM trended toward a similar path compared
to previous runs and at this time take the surface low on a Memphis
to Louisville to Columbus, Ohio track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF solution
shows a weaker surface low but stronger, faster upper level wave
across the area. The GFS/GEM camp would be warmer /mostly rain/
solution while ECMWF doesn`t draw as much warm air northward thus
brings the wintry mix a bit further south into the forecast area.

At this time, precipitation is expected to spread into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning and could begin as light snow or
a wintry mix. There could be some impacts here as we`ll have a cold,
dry surface and road temperatures likely to be on the colder side
too. If precipitation begins close to or before sunrise, this could
be more problematic.  Then, as warmer air is drawn northward, a
changeover to all rain is likely for most if not all of the area. At
this point, the greatest chances for a period of accumulating snow
look to be across southern Indiana and points northward. While
Sunday into Sunday night would be the main timeframe for
precipitation to fall, once the surface low passes the area, much
colder air begins to quickly dive southward. Another changeover to
wet snow before precipitation tapers off is possible overnight into
Monday morning.

A blend approach was used for the forecast, showing a brief period
of light snow to mix to all rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
With highs Sunday possibly well into the 40s, transitioned weather
to all rain for much of the day, then brought back a rain/snow mix
to snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Confidence is below average in regard to ptype, and the lack of
consistency in the models reduces our confidence even more. If the
thermal profiles are slightly cooler, then the accumulating snow
band could lie further south. This system has a long way to go
before being well sampled so changes and oscillations between the
models are expected. However, there is potential for some impacts to
portions of the area later this weekend into Monday morning, so stay
tuned to the latest.

In the wake of this system, there are signals that a shot of Arctic
cold will encompass much of the Upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley. This could bring a period of unseasonably cold air with
highs in the lower 30s and overnight lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1209 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure will continue to drift through the region today and
provide the terminals with mainly clear skies this afternoon and
into the evening hours.  The high will push off to the east tonight
with surface winds shifting to the southwest.  High clouds will push
in from the west late this evening with ceilings lowering throughout
the night.  Surface winds will also pick up toward morning as the
pressure gradient increases.  Widely scattered light precipitation
will be possible toward the end of the period, but the low coverage
precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1209 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley today will provide us with
mostly sunny skies, light breezes, and temperatures just a few
degrees cooler than normal.

Tonight the high will advance to the East Coast as developing low
pressure moves from Omaha to Chicago.  Temperatures will likely
bottom out by midnight and then begin to creep back up as winds turn
southwesterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will increase
but little if any measurable precipitation is expected as dry air in
the low levels will take some time to overcome.  Nevertheless, if
any precipitation does make it to the surface, it could be in the
form of a very light wintry mix over the Blue Grass with very light
rain elsewhere.  The best chance for precipitation will be after 4am.

Light rain chances will increase on Thursday as the Chicago low
heads for Toronto and swings its trailing cold front through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Moisture is shallow and rainfall
amounts are expected to be on the order of a tenth of an inch.

Southwest winds could get rather gusty Thursday morning and early
afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.  These winds will
help pull temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s by midday, but
then temps will fall back into the low and mid 40s by evening behind
the cold front.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

The main focus in the long term period is on the potential wintry
mix late this weekend across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Thursday night the weather pattern is expected to feature the
departing clipper strengthening across the Northeast US while strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Lingering moisture trapped within a low level inversion
will likely keep clouds in place east of I-65 Thursday night. The
north/northeast flow will act to anchor the moisture in place Friday
morning, so there is some question on how much clearing will take
place across the northeastern portions of the forecast area during
the day. The 28.00z NAM soundings are the most aggressive with this
inversion/moisture setup, holding a stratus deck in place east/north
of Louisville metro. For now, incorporated a gradual but delayed
clearing trend Friday afternoon. Other areas likely to see more
sunshine as the surface high continues to build southeastward. It`ll
be a seasonably cool day with high temperatures a couple degrees
either side of 32F for most. The exception will be across
south-central KY where mid/upper 30s are expected.

For Saturday, zonal to weak ridging flow moves overhead as the
southwest US trough digs all the way south of the US border. We`ll
likely start off seasonably cold with good radiational cooling
conditions Friday night but rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s
with a fair amount of sunshine and light winds.

Now onto the late weekend system. The 28.00z guidance wasn`t much of
a confidence booster as models have yet to stabilize on a particular
solution or placement of synoptic features. The lack of run to run
and model to model consistency leaves a lot to be desired in regard
to precipitation type late Saturday night through early Monday
morning. The 28.00z GFS/GEM trended toward a similar path compared
to previous runs and at this time take the surface low on a Memphis
to Louisville to Columbus, Ohio track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF solution
shows a weaker surface low but stronger, faster upper level wave
across the area. The GFS/GEM camp would be warmer /mostly rain/
solution while ECMWF doesn`t draw as much warm air northward thus
brings the wintry mix a bit further south into the forecast area.

At this time, precipitation is expected to spread into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning and could begin as light snow or
a wintry mix. There could be some impacts here as we`ll have a cold,
dry surface and road temperatures likely to be on the colder side
too. If precipitation begins close to or before sunrise, this could
be more problematic.  Then, as warmer air is drawn northward, a
changeover to all rain is likely for most if not all of the area. At
this point, the greatest chances for a period of accumulating snow
look to be across southern Indiana and points northward. While
Sunday into Sunday night would be the main timeframe for
precipitation to fall, once the surface low passes the area, much
colder air begins to quickly dive southward. Another changeover to
wet snow before precipitation tapers off is possible overnight into
Monday morning.

A blend approach was used for the forecast, showing a brief period
of light snow to mix to all rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
With highs Sunday possibly well into the 40s, transitioned weather
to all rain for much of the day, then brought back a rain/snow mix
to snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Confidence is below average in regard to ptype, and the lack of
consistency in the models reduces our confidence even more. If the
thermal profiles are slightly cooler, then the accumulating snow
band could lie further south. This system has a long way to go
before being well sampled so changes and oscillations between the
models are expected. However, there is potential for some impacts to
portions of the area later this weekend into Monday morning, so stay
tuned to the latest.

In the wake of this system, there are signals that a shot of Arctic
cold will encompass much of the Upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley. This could bring a period of unseasonably cold air with
highs in the lower 30s and overnight lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1209 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure will continue to drift through the region today and
provide the terminals with mainly clear skies this afternoon and
into the evening hours.  The high will push off to the east tonight
with surface winds shifting to the southwest.  High clouds will push
in from the west late this evening with ceilings lowering throughout
the night.  Surface winds will also pick up toward morning as the
pressure gradient increases.  Widely scattered light precipitation
will be possible toward the end of the period, but the low coverage
precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281049
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
549 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley today will provide us with
mostly sunny skies, light breezes, and temperatures just a few
degrees cooler than normal.

Tonight the high will advance to the East Coast as developing low
pressure moves from Omaha to Chicago.  Temperatures will likely
bottom out by midnight and then begin to creep back up as winds turn
southwesterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will increase
but little if any measurable precipitation is expected as dry air in
the low levels will take some time to overcome.  Nevertheless, if
any precipitation does make it to the surface, it could be in the
form of a very light wintry mix over the Blue Grass with very light
rain elsewhere.  The best chance for precipitation will be after 4am.

Light rain chances will increase on Thursday as the Chicago low
heads for Toronto and swings its trailing cold front through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Moisture is shallow and rainfall
amounts are expected to be on the order of a tenth of an inch.

Southwest winds could get rather gusty Thursday morning and early
afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.  These winds will
help pull temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s by midday, but
then temps will fall back into the low and mid 40s by evening behind
the cold front.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

The main focus in the long term period is on the potential wintry
mix late this weekend across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Thursday night the weather pattern is expected to feature the
departing clipper strengthening across the Northeast US while strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Lingering moisture trapped within a low level inversion
will likely keep clouds in place east of I-65 Thursday night. The
north/northeast flow will act to anchor the moisture in place Friday
morning, so there is some question on how much clearing will take
place across the northeastern portions of the forecast area during
the day. The 28.00z NAM soundings are the most aggressive with this
inversion/moisture setup, holding a stratus deck in place east/north
of Louisville metro. For now, incorporated a gradual but delayed
clearing trend Friday afternoon. Other areas likely to see more
sunshine as the surface high continues to build southeastward. It`ll
be a seasonably cool day with high temperatures a couple degrees
either side of 32F for most. The exception will be across
south-central KY where mid/upper 30s are expected.

For Saturday, zonal to weak ridging flow moves overhead as the
southwest US trough digs all the way south of the US border. We`ll
likely start off seasonably cold with good radiational cooling
conditions Friday night but rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s
with a fair amount of sunshine and light winds.

Now onto the late weekend system. The 28.00z guidance wasn`t much of
a confidence booster as models have yet to stabilize on a particular
solution or placement of synoptic features. The lack of run to run
and model to model consistency leaves a lot to be desired in regard
to precipitation type late Saturday night through early Monday
morning. The 28.00z GFS/GEM trended toward a similar path compared
to previous runs and at this time take the surface low on a Memphis
to Louisville to Columbus, Ohio track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF solution
shows a weaker surface low but stronger, faster upper level wave
across the area. The GFS/GEM camp would be warmer /mostly rain/
solution while ECMWF doesn`t draw as much warm air northward thus
brings the wintry mix a bit further south into the forecast area.

At this time, precipitation is expected to spread into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning and could begin as light snow or
a wintry mix. There could be some impacts here as we`ll have a cold,
dry surface and road temperatures likely to be on the colder side
too. If precipitation begins close to or before sunrise, this could
be more problematic.  Then, as warmer air is drawn northward, a
changeover to all rain is likely for most if not all of the area. At
this point, the greatest chances for a period of accumulating snow
look to be across southern Indiana and points northward. While
Sunday into Sunday night would be the main timeframe for
precipitation to fall, once the surface low passes the area, much
colder air begins to quickly dive southward. Another changeover to
wet snow before precipitation tapers off is possible overnight into
Monday morning.

A blend approach was used for the forecast, showing a brief period
of light snow to mix to all rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
With highs Sunday possibly well into the 40s, transitioned weather
to all rain for much of the day, then brought back a rain/snow mix
to snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Confidence is below average in regard to ptype, and the lack of
consistency in the models reduces our confidence even more. If the
thermal profiles are slightly cooler, then the accumulating snow
band could lie further south. This system has a long way to go
before being well sampled so changes and oscillations between the
models are expected. However, there is potential for some impacts to
portions of the area later this weekend into Monday morning, so stay
tuned to the latest.

In the wake of this system, there are signals that a shot of Arctic
cold will encompass much of the Upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley. This could bring a period of unseasonably cold air with
highs in the lower 30s and overnight lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 549 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure moving from the Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will
keep our weather quiet with mostly clear skies and generally light
winds into this evening.  A storm system approaching from the west
will increase winds and clouds after midnight. Widely scattered
light precipitation will be possible towards the end of the SDF TAF
period but impacts are expected to be small enough to leave out for
now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281049
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
549 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley today will provide us with
mostly sunny skies, light breezes, and temperatures just a few
degrees cooler than normal.

Tonight the high will advance to the East Coast as developing low
pressure moves from Omaha to Chicago.  Temperatures will likely
bottom out by midnight and then begin to creep back up as winds turn
southwesterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will increase
but little if any measurable precipitation is expected as dry air in
the low levels will take some time to overcome.  Nevertheless, if
any precipitation does make it to the surface, it could be in the
form of a very light wintry mix over the Blue Grass with very light
rain elsewhere.  The best chance for precipitation will be after 4am.

Light rain chances will increase on Thursday as the Chicago low
heads for Toronto and swings its trailing cold front through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Moisture is shallow and rainfall
amounts are expected to be on the order of a tenth of an inch.

Southwest winds could get rather gusty Thursday morning and early
afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.  These winds will
help pull temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s by midday, but
then temps will fall back into the low and mid 40s by evening behind
the cold front.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

The main focus in the long term period is on the potential wintry
mix late this weekend across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Thursday night the weather pattern is expected to feature the
departing clipper strengthening across the Northeast US while strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Lingering moisture trapped within a low level inversion
will likely keep clouds in place east of I-65 Thursday night. The
north/northeast flow will act to anchor the moisture in place Friday
morning, so there is some question on how much clearing will take
place across the northeastern portions of the forecast area during
the day. The 28.00z NAM soundings are the most aggressive with this
inversion/moisture setup, holding a stratus deck in place east/north
of Louisville metro. For now, incorporated a gradual but delayed
clearing trend Friday afternoon. Other areas likely to see more
sunshine as the surface high continues to build southeastward. It`ll
be a seasonably cool day with high temperatures a couple degrees
either side of 32F for most. The exception will be across
south-central KY where mid/upper 30s are expected.

For Saturday, zonal to weak ridging flow moves overhead as the
southwest US trough digs all the way south of the US border. We`ll
likely start off seasonably cold with good radiational cooling
conditions Friday night but rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s
with a fair amount of sunshine and light winds.

Now onto the late weekend system. The 28.00z guidance wasn`t much of
a confidence booster as models have yet to stabilize on a particular
solution or placement of synoptic features. The lack of run to run
and model to model consistency leaves a lot to be desired in regard
to precipitation type late Saturday night through early Monday
morning. The 28.00z GFS/GEM trended toward a similar path compared
to previous runs and at this time take the surface low on a Memphis
to Louisville to Columbus, Ohio track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF solution
shows a weaker surface low but stronger, faster upper level wave
across the area. The GFS/GEM camp would be warmer /mostly rain/
solution while ECMWF doesn`t draw as much warm air northward thus
brings the wintry mix a bit further south into the forecast area.

At this time, precipitation is expected to spread into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning and could begin as light snow or
a wintry mix. There could be some impacts here as we`ll have a cold,
dry surface and road temperatures likely to be on the colder side
too. If precipitation begins close to or before sunrise, this could
be more problematic.  Then, as warmer air is drawn northward, a
changeover to all rain is likely for most if not all of the area. At
this point, the greatest chances for a period of accumulating snow
look to be across southern Indiana and points northward. While
Sunday into Sunday night would be the main timeframe for
precipitation to fall, once the surface low passes the area, much
colder air begins to quickly dive southward. Another changeover to
wet snow before precipitation tapers off is possible overnight into
Monday morning.

A blend approach was used for the forecast, showing a brief period
of light snow to mix to all rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
With highs Sunday possibly well into the 40s, transitioned weather
to all rain for much of the day, then brought back a rain/snow mix
to snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Confidence is below average in regard to ptype, and the lack of
consistency in the models reduces our confidence even more. If the
thermal profiles are slightly cooler, then the accumulating snow
band could lie further south. This system has a long way to go
before being well sampled so changes and oscillations between the
models are expected. However, there is potential for some impacts to
portions of the area later this weekend into Monday morning, so stay
tuned to the latest.

In the wake of this system, there are signals that a shot of Arctic
cold will encompass much of the Upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley. This could bring a period of unseasonably cold air with
highs in the lower 30s and overnight lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 549 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure moving from the Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will
keep our weather quiet with mostly clear skies and generally light
winds into this evening.  A storm system approaching from the west
will increase winds and clouds after midnight. Widely scattered
light precipitation will be possible towards the end of the SDF TAF
period but impacts are expected to be small enough to leave out for
now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280814
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley today will provide us with
mostly sunny skies, light breezes, and temperatures just a few
degrees cooler than normal.

Tonight the high will advance to the East Coast as developing low
pressure moves from Omaha to Chicago.  Temperatures will likely
bottom out by midnight and then begin to creep back up as winds turn
southwesterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will increase
but little if any measurable precipitation is expected as dry air in
the low levels will take some time to overcome.  Nevertheless, if
any precipitation does make it to the surface, it could be in the
form of a very light wintry mix over the Blue Grass with very light
rain elsewhere.  The best chance for precipitation will be after 4am.

Light rain chances will increase on Thursday as the Chicago low
heads for Toronto and swings its trailing cold front through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Moisture is shallow and rainfall
amounts are expected to be on the order of a tenth of an inch.

Southwest winds could get rather gusty Thursday morning and early
afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.  These winds will
help pull temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s by midday, but
then temps will fall back into the low and mid 40s by evening behind
the cold front.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

The main focus in the long term period is on the potential wintry
mix late this weekend across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Thursday night the weather pattern is expected to feature the
departing clipper strengthening across the Northeast US while strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Lingering moisture trapped within a low level inversion
will likely keep clouds in place east of I-65 Thursday night. The
north/northeast flow will act to anchor the moisture in place Friday
morning, so there is some question on how much clearing will take
place across the northeastern portions of the forecast area during
the day. The 28.00z NAM soundings are the most aggressive with this
inversion/moisture setup, holding a stratus deck in place east/north
of Louisville metro. For now, incorporated a gradual but delayed
clearing trend Friday afternoon. Other areas likely to see more
sunshine as the surface high continues to build southeastward. It`ll
be a seasonably cool day with high temperatures a couple degrees
either side of 32F for most. The exception will be across
south-central KY where mid/upper 30s are expected.

For Saturday, zonal to weak ridging flow moves overhead as the
southwest US trough digs all the way south of the US border. We`ll
likely start off seasonably cold with good radiational cooling
conditions Friday night but rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s
with a fair amount of sunshine and light winds.

Now onto the late weekend system. The 28.00z guidance wasn`t much of
a confidence booster as models have yet to stabilize on a particular
solution or placement of synoptic features. The lack of run to run
and model to model consistency leaves a lot to be desired in regard
to precipitation type late Saturday night through early Monday
morning. The 28.00z GFS/GEM trended toward a similar path compared
to previous runs and at this time take the surface low on a Memphis
to Louisville to Columbus, Ohio track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF solution
shows a weaker surface low but stronger, faster upper level wave
across the area. The GFS/GEM camp would be warmer /mostly rain/
solution while ECMWF doesn`t draw as much warm air northward thus
brings the wintry mix a bit further south into the forecast area.

At this time, precipitation is expected to spread into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning and could begin as light snow or
a wintry mix. There could be some impacts here as we`ll have a cold,
dry surface and road temperatures likely to be on the colder side
too. If precipitation begins close to or before sunrise, this could
be more problematic.  Then, as warmer air is drawn northward, a
changeover to all rain is likely for most if not all of the area. At
this point, the greatest chances for a period of accumulating snow
look to be across southern Indiana and points northward. While
Sunday into Sunday night would be the main timeframe for
precipitation to fall, once the surface low passes the area, much
colder air begins to quickly dive southward. Another changeover to
wet snow before precipitation tapers off is possible overnight into
Monday morning.

A blend approach was used for the forecast, showing a brief period
of light snow to mix to all rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
With highs Sunday possibly well into the 40s, transitioned weather
to all rain for much of the day, then brought back a rain/snow mix
to snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Confidence is below average in regard to ptype, and the lack of
consistency in the models reduces our confidence even more. If the
thermal profiles are slightly cooler, then the accumulating snow
band could lie further south. This system has a long way to go
before being well sampled so changes and oscillations between the
models are expected. However, there is potential for some impacts to
portions of the area later this weekend into Monday morning, so stay
tuned to the latest.

In the wake of this system, there are signals that a shot of Arctic
cold will encompass much of the Upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley. This could bring a period of unseasonably cold air with
highs in the lower 30s and overnight lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low clouds are slowly eroding at BWG and will be gone before flights
resume in the morning.  Otherwise, high pressure moving from the
Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will keep our weather quiet with
mostly clear skies and generally light winds.  A storm system
approaching from the west will increase winds and clouds at SDF
towards the tail end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280814
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley today will provide us with
mostly sunny skies, light breezes, and temperatures just a few
degrees cooler than normal.

Tonight the high will advance to the East Coast as developing low
pressure moves from Omaha to Chicago.  Temperatures will likely
bottom out by midnight and then begin to creep back up as winds turn
southwesterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will increase
but little if any measurable precipitation is expected as dry air in
the low levels will take some time to overcome.  Nevertheless, if
any precipitation does make it to the surface, it could be in the
form of a very light wintry mix over the Blue Grass with very light
rain elsewhere.  The best chance for precipitation will be after 4am.

Light rain chances will increase on Thursday as the Chicago low
heads for Toronto and swings its trailing cold front through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Moisture is shallow and rainfall
amounts are expected to be on the order of a tenth of an inch.

Southwest winds could get rather gusty Thursday morning and early
afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.  These winds will
help pull temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s by midday, but
then temps will fall back into the low and mid 40s by evening behind
the cold front.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

The main focus in the long term period is on the potential wintry
mix late this weekend across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Thursday night the weather pattern is expected to feature the
departing clipper strengthening across the Northeast US while strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Lingering moisture trapped within a low level inversion
will likely keep clouds in place east of I-65 Thursday night. The
north/northeast flow will act to anchor the moisture in place Friday
morning, so there is some question on how much clearing will take
place across the northeastern portions of the forecast area during
the day. The 28.00z NAM soundings are the most aggressive with this
inversion/moisture setup, holding a stratus deck in place east/north
of Louisville metro. For now, incorporated a gradual but delayed
clearing trend Friday afternoon. Other areas likely to see more
sunshine as the surface high continues to build southeastward. It`ll
be a seasonably cool day with high temperatures a couple degrees
either side of 32F for most. The exception will be across
south-central KY where mid/upper 30s are expected.

For Saturday, zonal to weak ridging flow moves overhead as the
southwest US trough digs all the way south of the US border. We`ll
likely start off seasonably cold with good radiational cooling
conditions Friday night but rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s
with a fair amount of sunshine and light winds.

Now onto the late weekend system. The 28.00z guidance wasn`t much of
a confidence booster as models have yet to stabilize on a particular
solution or placement of synoptic features. The lack of run to run
and model to model consistency leaves a lot to be desired in regard
to precipitation type late Saturday night through early Monday
morning. The 28.00z GFS/GEM trended toward a similar path compared
to previous runs and at this time take the surface low on a Memphis
to Louisville to Columbus, Ohio track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF solution
shows a weaker surface low but stronger, faster upper level wave
across the area. The GFS/GEM camp would be warmer /mostly rain/
solution while ECMWF doesn`t draw as much warm air northward thus
brings the wintry mix a bit further south into the forecast area.

At this time, precipitation is expected to spread into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning and could begin as light snow or
a wintry mix. There could be some impacts here as we`ll have a cold,
dry surface and road temperatures likely to be on the colder side
too. If precipitation begins close to or before sunrise, this could
be more problematic.  Then, as warmer air is drawn northward, a
changeover to all rain is likely for most if not all of the area. At
this point, the greatest chances for a period of accumulating snow
look to be across southern Indiana and points northward. While
Sunday into Sunday night would be the main timeframe for
precipitation to fall, once the surface low passes the area, much
colder air begins to quickly dive southward. Another changeover to
wet snow before precipitation tapers off is possible overnight into
Monday morning.

A blend approach was used for the forecast, showing a brief period
of light snow to mix to all rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
With highs Sunday possibly well into the 40s, transitioned weather
to all rain for much of the day, then brought back a rain/snow mix
to snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Confidence is below average in regard to ptype, and the lack of
consistency in the models reduces our confidence even more. If the
thermal profiles are slightly cooler, then the accumulating snow
band could lie further south. This system has a long way to go
before being well sampled so changes and oscillations between the
models are expected. However, there is potential for some impacts to
portions of the area later this weekend into Monday morning, so stay
tuned to the latest.

In the wake of this system, there are signals that a shot of Arctic
cold will encompass much of the Upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley. This could bring a period of unseasonably cold air with
highs in the lower 30s and overnight lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low clouds are slowly eroding at BWG and will be gone before flights
resume in the morning.  Otherwise, high pressure moving from the
Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will keep our weather quiet with
mostly clear skies and generally light winds.  A storm system
approaching from the west will increase winds and clouds at SDF
towards the tail end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low clouds are slowly eroding at BWG and will be gone before flights
resume in the morning.  Otherwise, high pressure moving from the
Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will keep our weather quiet with
mostly clear skies and generally light winds.  A storm system
approaching from the west will increase winds and clouds at SDF
towards the tail end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low clouds are slowly eroding at BWG and will be gone before flights
resume in the morning.  Otherwise, high pressure moving from the
Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will keep our weather quiet with
mostly clear skies and generally light winds.  A storm system
approaching from the west will increase winds and clouds at SDF
towards the tail end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
745 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
745 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 272250
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
550 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272020
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1202 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Cloudy skies are expected to continue across the terminals this
afternoon.  The worst ceiling conditions will be down at KBWG where
IFR conditions will be seen.  However, ceilings are expected to lift
through the afternoon hours with MVFR conditions returning around
27/20-21Z.  Up at KSDF, visibilities continue to improve and should
remain VFR through the afternoon.  Ceilings will start off as MVFR
but should reach VFR levels around 27/19-21Z. KLEX looks to remain
VFR throughout the period.  Some cloudiness will persist through the
early part of the period, but clearing to the north of the terminal
will move in around 27/19-20Z.

For tonight, VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX.  However,
some low cloudiness look to stay in place at KBWG where MVFR
ceilings look to persist into the late evening hours.  Winds are
expected to remain light and variable. However, overall boundary
layer winds look to remain elevated to prevent fog.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272020
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1202 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Cloudy skies are expected to continue across the terminals this
afternoon.  The worst ceiling conditions will be down at KBWG where
IFR conditions will be seen.  However, ceilings are expected to lift
through the afternoon hours with MVFR conditions returning around
27/20-21Z.  Up at KSDF, visibilities continue to improve and should
remain VFR through the afternoon.  Ceilings will start off as MVFR
but should reach VFR levels around 27/19-21Z. KLEX looks to remain
VFR throughout the period.  Some cloudiness will persist through the
early part of the period, but clearing to the north of the terminal
will move in around 27/19-20Z.

For tonight, VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX.  However,
some low cloudiness look to stay in place at KBWG where MVFR
ceilings look to persist into the late evening hours.  Winds are
expected to remain light and variable. However, overall boundary
layer winds look to remain elevated to prevent fog.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ







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