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000
FXUS63 KLMK 011105
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
605 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...A Light Wintry Mix Will Continue This Morning...

The heaviest precipitation overnight has been confined to points
along and north of the Ohio River. Some lighter returns across
central Kentucky resulted in some reports of light rain/snow/sleet
earlier tonight. The main forecast concern for the short term period
will be precipitation type and accumulations through mid morning.

Temperatures across the forecast area this morning range from the
mid 30s across south central Kentucky to the upper 20s across
southern IN and portions of north central KY. Think that most of the
precipitation right now across southern IN is light snow, though
some higher reflectivities a bit ago probably indicated some sleet
mixing in. AMDAR soundings from around 645Z at SDF show the warm
nose aloft has worked into at least central KY with values up to
around +2C. This warm layer should continue to work northward. Will
continue to carry a mix of snow, freezing rain, and a chance for
some sleet across southern IN and north central KY this morning.
Further south any precipitation is expected to be in the form of
rain.

As winds turn to southerly this morning, temperatures will warm with
all areas expected to be above freezing by 15Z or so. Thus the area
of potential mixed precipitation will shift northward quickly from
12Z on. Prior to that, however, cannot rule out an additional inch
or so of snow across the far northern tier of the advisory with
light accumulations of snow and/or a glaze of ice to the south. Some
slick spots still look to be possible early this morning.

A cold front will push through the area this evening. Precipitation
should be moving out as the cold air is moving in. Still think there
will be a chance for a wintry mix or a brief changeover to snow as
the precip moves out tonight. Any accumulations from this should be
fairly minor.

Clouds will begin to clear Monday as high pressure continues to
build in. Highs will range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 311 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Active Weather Period Shaping Up for the Ohio Valley...

The latest global models continue to show a rather progressive
pattern aloft with a very active southern jet stream.  This setup
will result in a very wet pattern that features a brief warm
up...followed by a return of colder air back into the region.

Surface cyclogenesis is still progged to occur over the lower Plains
within the lee of the Rockies early in the period.  This low will
then race from the Plains into the Great Lakes while dragging a
surface cold front through the region.  Out ahead of this system,
large scale warm air advection combined with strong moisture
advection will bring a very wet period of weather to the region.
Precipitation is expected to re-develop and build northeastward late
Monday night and early Tuesday.  Out ahead of this precipitation,
the atmosphere will be largely cold...with subfreezing temperatures
over part of the region.  Thus, the initial precipitation for a
limited time early Tuesday looks to remain in a wintry mix across
the northern forecast area...with plain rain across the south.
Temperatures will warm on Tuesday with the WAA in full swing which
should result in temperatures breaking 60 across the south with
low-mid 50s up across the north.

Severe chances still look rather low across the region as surface
based instability will be confined to areas to our south.  Some
localized surface based instability may develop across southern KY,
but in general, it appears that elevated instability will be more
widespread across the region.  So, we will continue to go with
embedded thunder in the forecast.  Total quantitative precipitation
still remains somewhat of a challenge.  While the overall amounts
projected from the models continues to decrease with each run, we`re
still seeing quite a bit of variability in the amounts.  In general,
we still feel that total QPF amounts of 2-3 inches will likely be
realized across the region.  This rainfall, falling on melting
snowpack and saturated grounds will likely lead to flooding issues.
Please see they Hydrology section for further details.

The second aspect of this weather system will be the potential for
wintry weather on Wednesday as colder air pushes into the region.
The surface frontal boundary looks to pass through the region
Wednesday morning, with modified Arctic air sinking southward into
the region.  However, a sustained west-southwesterly flow aloft will
likely continue spread moisture up into the region, resulting in
light to moderate snows across the area.  Highs for Wednesday will
likely be very early in the day with a non-diurnal temperature
free-fall throughout the day.  We would not be surprised to see a
30-40 degree temperature fall throughout the day.  Some accumulating
snows look likely on Wednesday across the region with this activity.

From Thursday onward, the weather looks to be rather quiet with
mostly clear nights and mostly sunny days.  Highs will remain well
below normal with readings on Thursday staying in the 20s with 30`s
and 40s returning by Friday-Saturday.  Overnight lows will be cold
as well with single digit and teens Thursday morning and 20s by
Friday/Saturday morning.  Lows could be a little colder on Thursday
morning depending on the amount of snow we see on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 317 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

We still have quite a bit of snowpack in the area that contains
about a half inch in the south with an inch and a half to two inches
of liquid content up in our northern areas.  With warmer
temperatures expected through the period, we expect a bit of
melting.  Light to moderate rainfall with today and tonight`s system
will add less than a half inch but may result in some rises on area
creeks and streams due to runoff.

The secondary storm system for Tuesday is where we expect to see
hydrologic problems increase.  The latest model forecasts continue
to show a slight downtrend in total precipitation.  However, we`re
still looking at a solid 2-3 inches of rainfall along with continued
snowmelt.

Given the current rainfall projections, flooding on the major rivers
would likely start around midweek and continue throughout the
remainder of the week.  The latest forecasts continue to suggest
that the axis of heaviest rainfall will likely fall across much of
central KY...south of the Ohio River.  This would affect the Salt,
Green, and Kentucky river basins.  We will continue to closely
monitor stream levels and rainfall over the coming week.  Residents
in flood prone areas should closely monitor water levels over the
coming days and be prepared for possible flooding by mid to late
week.
&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 601 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

A few stations across the area this morning have been reporting
unknown precipitation which is likely light sleet. A look at 09Z
AMDAR soundings out of SDF show the warm layer aloft has grown to
3-4C. Surface temps should start to warm as well. The window for
sleet will be short this morning, so will start out with all rain in
the TAFs.

Lower ceilings have been slow to move in this morning. BWG has
finally dropped to MVFR. SDF and LEX should follow suit in the next
couple of hours. Still looks like all sites will drop to IFR today
and stay there through the afternoon. We may see some improvement to
MVFR tonight.

Winds will become southerly this morning and remain out of the SSW
for much of the day. They will shift to westerly and then
northwesterly tonight as a cold front move through the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Hydrology.........MJ
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 011105
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
605 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...A Light Wintry Mix Will Continue This Morning...

The heaviest precipitation overnight has been confined to points
along and north of the Ohio River. Some lighter returns across
central Kentucky resulted in some reports of light rain/snow/sleet
earlier tonight. The main forecast concern for the short term period
will be precipitation type and accumulations through mid morning.

Temperatures across the forecast area this morning range from the
mid 30s across south central Kentucky to the upper 20s across
southern IN and portions of north central KY. Think that most of the
precipitation right now across southern IN is light snow, though
some higher reflectivities a bit ago probably indicated some sleet
mixing in. AMDAR soundings from around 645Z at SDF show the warm
nose aloft has worked into at least central KY with values up to
around +2C. This warm layer should continue to work northward. Will
continue to carry a mix of snow, freezing rain, and a chance for
some sleet across southern IN and north central KY this morning.
Further south any precipitation is expected to be in the form of
rain.

As winds turn to southerly this morning, temperatures will warm with
all areas expected to be above freezing by 15Z or so. Thus the area
of potential mixed precipitation will shift northward quickly from
12Z on. Prior to that, however, cannot rule out an additional inch
or so of snow across the far northern tier of the advisory with
light accumulations of snow and/or a glaze of ice to the south. Some
slick spots still look to be possible early this morning.

A cold front will push through the area this evening. Precipitation
should be moving out as the cold air is moving in. Still think there
will be a chance for a wintry mix or a brief changeover to snow as
the precip moves out tonight. Any accumulations from this should be
fairly minor.

Clouds will begin to clear Monday as high pressure continues to
build in. Highs will range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 311 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Active Weather Period Shaping Up for the Ohio Valley...

The latest global models continue to show a rather progressive
pattern aloft with a very active southern jet stream.  This setup
will result in a very wet pattern that features a brief warm
up...followed by a return of colder air back into the region.

Surface cyclogenesis is still progged to occur over the lower Plains
within the lee of the Rockies early in the period.  This low will
then race from the Plains into the Great Lakes while dragging a
surface cold front through the region.  Out ahead of this system,
large scale warm air advection combined with strong moisture
advection will bring a very wet period of weather to the region.
Precipitation is expected to re-develop and build northeastward late
Monday night and early Tuesday.  Out ahead of this precipitation,
the atmosphere will be largely cold...with subfreezing temperatures
over part of the region.  Thus, the initial precipitation for a
limited time early Tuesday looks to remain in a wintry mix across
the northern forecast area...with plain rain across the south.
Temperatures will warm on Tuesday with the WAA in full swing which
should result in temperatures breaking 60 across the south with
low-mid 50s up across the north.

Severe chances still look rather low across the region as surface
based instability will be confined to areas to our south.  Some
localized surface based instability may develop across southern KY,
but in general, it appears that elevated instability will be more
widespread across the region.  So, we will continue to go with
embedded thunder in the forecast.  Total quantitative precipitation
still remains somewhat of a challenge.  While the overall amounts
projected from the models continues to decrease with each run, we`re
still seeing quite a bit of variability in the amounts.  In general,
we still feel that total QPF amounts of 2-3 inches will likely be
realized across the region.  This rainfall, falling on melting
snowpack and saturated grounds will likely lead to flooding issues.
Please see they Hydrology section for further details.

The second aspect of this weather system will be the potential for
wintry weather on Wednesday as colder air pushes into the region.
The surface frontal boundary looks to pass through the region
Wednesday morning, with modified Arctic air sinking southward into
the region.  However, a sustained west-southwesterly flow aloft will
likely continue spread moisture up into the region, resulting in
light to moderate snows across the area.  Highs for Wednesday will
likely be very early in the day with a non-diurnal temperature
free-fall throughout the day.  We would not be surprised to see a
30-40 degree temperature fall throughout the day.  Some accumulating
snows look likely on Wednesday across the region with this activity.

From Thursday onward, the weather looks to be rather quiet with
mostly clear nights and mostly sunny days.  Highs will remain well
below normal with readings on Thursday staying in the 20s with 30`s
and 40s returning by Friday-Saturday.  Overnight lows will be cold
as well with single digit and teens Thursday morning and 20s by
Friday/Saturday morning.  Lows could be a little colder on Thursday
morning depending on the amount of snow we see on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 317 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

We still have quite a bit of snowpack in the area that contains
about a half inch in the south with an inch and a half to two inches
of liquid content up in our northern areas.  With warmer
temperatures expected through the period, we expect a bit of
melting.  Light to moderate rainfall with today and tonight`s system
will add less than a half inch but may result in some rises on area
creeks and streams due to runoff.

The secondary storm system for Tuesday is where we expect to see
hydrologic problems increase.  The latest model forecasts continue
to show a slight downtrend in total precipitation.  However, we`re
still looking at a solid 2-3 inches of rainfall along with continued
snowmelt.

Given the current rainfall projections, flooding on the major rivers
would likely start around midweek and continue throughout the
remainder of the week.  The latest forecasts continue to suggest
that the axis of heaviest rainfall will likely fall across much of
central KY...south of the Ohio River.  This would affect the Salt,
Green, and Kentucky river basins.  We will continue to closely
monitor stream levels and rainfall over the coming week.  Residents
in flood prone areas should closely monitor water levels over the
coming days and be prepared for possible flooding by mid to late
week.
&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 601 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

A few stations across the area this morning have been reporting
unknown precipitation which is likely light sleet. A look at 09Z
AMDAR soundings out of SDF show the warm layer aloft has grown to
3-4C. Surface temps should start to warm as well. The window for
sleet will be short this morning, so will start out with all rain in
the TAFs.

Lower ceilings have been slow to move in this morning. BWG has
finally dropped to MVFR. SDF and LEX should follow suit in the next
couple of hours. Still looks like all sites will drop to IFR today
and stay there through the afternoon. We may see some improvement to
MVFR tonight.

Winds will become southerly this morning and remain out of the SSW
for much of the day. They will shift to westerly and then
northwesterly tonight as a cold front move through the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Hydrology.........MJ
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010820
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...A Light Wintry Mix Will Continue This Morning...

The heaviest precipitation overnight has been confined to points
along and north of the Ohio River. Some lighter returns across
central Kentucky resulted in some reports of light rain/snow/sleet
earlier tonight. The main forecast concern for the short term period
will be precipitation type and accumulations through mid morning.

Temperatures across the forecast area this morning range from the
mid 30s across south central Kentucky to the upper 20s across
southern IN and portions of north central KY. Think that most of the
precipitation right now across southern IN is light snow, though
some higher reflectivities a bit ago probably indicated some sleet
mixing in. AMDAR soundings from around 645Z at SDF show the warm
nose aloft has worked into at least central KY with values up to
around +2C. This warm layer should continue to work northward. Will
continue to carry a mix of snow, freezing rain, and a chance for
some sleet across southern IN and north central KY this morning.
Further south any precipitation is expected to be in the form of
rain.

As winds turn to southerly this morning, temperatures will warm with
all areas expected to be above freezing by 15Z or so. Thus the area
of potential mixed precipitation will shift northward quickly from
12Z on. Prior to that, however, cannot rule out an additional inch
or so of snow across the far northern tier of the advisory with
light accumulations of snow and/or a glaze of ice to the south. Some
slick spots still look to be possible early this morning.

A cold front will push through the area this evening. Precipitation
should be moving out as the cold air is moving in. Still think there
will be a chance for a wintry mix or a brief changeover to snow as
the precip moves out tonight. Any accumulations from this should be
fairly minor.

Clouds will begin to clear Monday as high pressure continues to
build in. Highs will range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 311 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Active Weather Period Shaping Up for the Ohio Valley...

The latest global models continue to show a rather progressive
pattern aloft with a very active southern jet stream.  This setup
will result in a very wet pattern that features a brief warm
up...followed by a return of colder air back into the region.

Surface cyclogenesis is still progged to occur over the lower Plains
within the lee of the Rockies early in the period.  This low will
then race from the Plains into the Great Lakes while dragging a
surface cold front through the region.  Out ahead of this system,
large scale warm air advection combined with strong moisture
advection will bring a very wet period of weather to the region.
Precipitation is expected to re-develop and build northeastward late
Monday night and early Tuesday.  Out ahead of this precipitation,
the atmosphere will be largely cold...with subfreezing temperatures
over part of the region.  Thus, the initial precipitation for a
limited time early Tuesday looks to remain in a wintry mix across
the northern forecast area...with plain rain across the south.
Temperatures will warm on Tuesday with the WAA in full swing which
should result in temperatures breaking 60 across the south with
low-mid 50s up across the north.

Severe chances still look rather low across the region as surface
based instability will be confined to areas to our south.  Some
localized surface based instability may develop across southern KY,
but in general, it appears that elevated instability will be more
widespread across the region.  So, we will continue to go with
embedded thunder in the forecast.  Total quantitative precipitation
still remains somewhat of a challenge.  While the overall amounts
projected from the models continues to decrease with each run, we`re
still seeing quite a bit of variability in the amounts.  In general,
we still feel that total QPF amounts of 2-3 inches will likely be
realized across the region.  This rainfall, falling on melting
snowpack and saturated grounds will likely lead to flooding issues.
Please see they Hydrology section for further details.

The second aspect of this weather system will be the potential for
wintry weather on Wednesday as colder air pushes into the region.
The surface frontal boundary looks to pass through the region
Wednesday morning, with modified Arctic air sinking southward into
the region.  However, a sustained west-southwesterly flow aloft will
likely continue spread moisture up into the region, resulting in
light to moderate snows across the area.  Highs for Wednesday will
likely be very early in the day with a non-diurnal temperature
free-fall throughout the day.  We would not be surprised to see a
30-40 degree temperature fall throughout the day.  Some accumulating
snows look likely on Wednesday across the region with this activity.

From Thursday onward, the weather looks to be rather quiet with
mostly clear nights and mostly sunny days.  Highs will remain well
below normal with readings on Thursday staying in the 20s with 30`s
and 40s returning by Friday-Saturday.  Overnight lows will be cold
as well with single digit and teens Thursday morning and 20s by
Friday/Saturday morning.  Lows could be a little colder on Thursday
morning depending on the amount of snow we see on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 317 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

We still have quite a bit of snowpack in the area that contains
about a half inch in the south with an inch and a half to two inches
of liquid content up in our northern areas.  With warmer
temperatures expected through the period, we expect a bit of
melting.  Light to moderate rainfall with today and tonight`s system
will add less than a half inch but may result in some rises on area
creeks and streams due to runoff.

The secondary storm system for Tuesday is where we expect to see
hydrologic problems increase.  The latest model forecasts continue
to show a slight downtrend in total precipitation.  However, we`re
still looking at a solid 2-3 inches of rainfall along with continued
snowmelt.

Given the current rainfall projections, flooding on the major rivers
would likely start around midweek and continue throughout the
remainder of the week.  The latest forecasts continue to suggest
that the axis of heaviest rainfall will likely fall across much of
central KY...south of the Ohio River.  This would affect the Salt,
Green, and Kentucky river basins.  We will continue to closely
monitor stream levels and rainfall over the coming week.  Residents
in flood prone areas should closely monitor water levels over the
coming days and be prepared for possible flooding by mid to late
week.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The chance for any wintry precipitation overnight will be the main
concern for this forecast. Any frozen precipitation will then change
to all rain by around 12Z with rain continuing off an on through the
rest of the day.

For SDF a batch of rain and sleet moved through over the last hour.
For now the airport is in a clear slot. The latest mesoscale models
suggest that SDF will remain dry for at least the next couple of
hours. Thereafter, some freezing rain and maybe some sleet could
move in. Temperatures are hovering right above freezing right now,
but could fall a degree or two before beginning to rise around
sunrise. The timing of freezing rain in the TAF was shortened based
on the latest guidance.

At LEX light returns showing up right now on radar will shift off to
the northeast shortly. Still think LEX could have a very short window of
very light freezing rain in the morning before changing to all rain.

BWG should stay out of the wintry precipitation. Rain looks to start
there by mid morning and continue off and on through the day.

All sites will saturate aloft overnight with cloud bases lowering.
MVFR cigs are expected to develop by 12Z with IFR cigs developing by
mid to late morning. Winds will eventually shift to
south-southwesterly today then to the west to northwest eventually
late Saturday night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Hydrology.........MJ
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 010820
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...A Light Wintry Mix Will Continue This Morning...

The heaviest precipitation overnight has been confined to points
along and north of the Ohio River. Some lighter returns across
central Kentucky resulted in some reports of light rain/snow/sleet
earlier tonight. The main forecast concern for the short term period
will be precipitation type and accumulations through mid morning.

Temperatures across the forecast area this morning range from the
mid 30s across south central Kentucky to the upper 20s across
southern IN and portions of north central KY. Think that most of the
precipitation right now across southern IN is light snow, though
some higher reflectivities a bit ago probably indicated some sleet
mixing in. AMDAR soundings from around 645Z at SDF show the warm
nose aloft has worked into at least central KY with values up to
around +2C. This warm layer should continue to work northward. Will
continue to carry a mix of snow, freezing rain, and a chance for
some sleet across southern IN and north central KY this morning.
Further south any precipitation is expected to be in the form of
rain.

As winds turn to southerly this morning, temperatures will warm with
all areas expected to be above freezing by 15Z or so. Thus the area
of potential mixed precipitation will shift northward quickly from
12Z on. Prior to that, however, cannot rule out an additional inch
or so of snow across the far northern tier of the advisory with
light accumulations of snow and/or a glaze of ice to the south. Some
slick spots still look to be possible early this morning.

A cold front will push through the area this evening. Precipitation
should be moving out as the cold air is moving in. Still think there
will be a chance for a wintry mix or a brief changeover to snow as
the precip moves out tonight. Any accumulations from this should be
fairly minor.

Clouds will begin to clear Monday as high pressure continues to
build in. Highs will range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 311 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Active Weather Period Shaping Up for the Ohio Valley...

The latest global models continue to show a rather progressive
pattern aloft with a very active southern jet stream.  This setup
will result in a very wet pattern that features a brief warm
up...followed by a return of colder air back into the region.

Surface cyclogenesis is still progged to occur over the lower Plains
within the lee of the Rockies early in the period.  This low will
then race from the Plains into the Great Lakes while dragging a
surface cold front through the region.  Out ahead of this system,
large scale warm air advection combined with strong moisture
advection will bring a very wet period of weather to the region.
Precipitation is expected to re-develop and build northeastward late
Monday night and early Tuesday.  Out ahead of this precipitation,
the atmosphere will be largely cold...with subfreezing temperatures
over part of the region.  Thus, the initial precipitation for a
limited time early Tuesday looks to remain in a wintry mix across
the northern forecast area...with plain rain across the south.
Temperatures will warm on Tuesday with the WAA in full swing which
should result in temperatures breaking 60 across the south with
low-mid 50s up across the north.

Severe chances still look rather low across the region as surface
based instability will be confined to areas to our south.  Some
localized surface based instability may develop across southern KY,
but in general, it appears that elevated instability will be more
widespread across the region.  So, we will continue to go with
embedded thunder in the forecast.  Total quantitative precipitation
still remains somewhat of a challenge.  While the overall amounts
projected from the models continues to decrease with each run, we`re
still seeing quite a bit of variability in the amounts.  In general,
we still feel that total QPF amounts of 2-3 inches will likely be
realized across the region.  This rainfall, falling on melting
snowpack and saturated grounds will likely lead to flooding issues.
Please see they Hydrology section for further details.

The second aspect of this weather system will be the potential for
wintry weather on Wednesday as colder air pushes into the region.
The surface frontal boundary looks to pass through the region
Wednesday morning, with modified Arctic air sinking southward into
the region.  However, a sustained west-southwesterly flow aloft will
likely continue spread moisture up into the region, resulting in
light to moderate snows across the area.  Highs for Wednesday will
likely be very early in the day with a non-diurnal temperature
free-fall throughout the day.  We would not be surprised to see a
30-40 degree temperature fall throughout the day.  Some accumulating
snows look likely on Wednesday across the region with this activity.

From Thursday onward, the weather looks to be rather quiet with
mostly clear nights and mostly sunny days.  Highs will remain well
below normal with readings on Thursday staying in the 20s with 30`s
and 40s returning by Friday-Saturday.  Overnight lows will be cold
as well with single digit and teens Thursday morning and 20s by
Friday/Saturday morning.  Lows could be a little colder on Thursday
morning depending on the amount of snow we see on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 317 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

We still have quite a bit of snowpack in the area that contains
about a half inch in the south with an inch and a half to two inches
of liquid content up in our northern areas.  With warmer
temperatures expected through the period, we expect a bit of
melting.  Light to moderate rainfall with today and tonight`s system
will add less than a half inch but may result in some rises on area
creeks and streams due to runoff.

The secondary storm system for Tuesday is where we expect to see
hydrologic problems increase.  The latest model forecasts continue
to show a slight downtrend in total precipitation.  However, we`re
still looking at a solid 2-3 inches of rainfall along with continued
snowmelt.

Given the current rainfall projections, flooding on the major rivers
would likely start around midweek and continue throughout the
remainder of the week.  The latest forecasts continue to suggest
that the axis of heaviest rainfall will likely fall across much of
central KY...south of the Ohio River.  This would affect the Salt,
Green, and Kentucky river basins.  We will continue to closely
monitor stream levels and rainfall over the coming week.  Residents
in flood prone areas should closely monitor water levels over the
coming days and be prepared for possible flooding by mid to late
week.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The chance for any wintry precipitation overnight will be the main
concern for this forecast. Any frozen precipitation will then change
to all rain by around 12Z with rain continuing off an on through the
rest of the day.

For SDF a batch of rain and sleet moved through over the last hour.
For now the airport is in a clear slot. The latest mesoscale models
suggest that SDF will remain dry for at least the next couple of
hours. Thereafter, some freezing rain and maybe some sleet could
move in. Temperatures are hovering right above freezing right now,
but could fall a degree or two before beginning to rise around
sunrise. The timing of freezing rain in the TAF was shortened based
on the latest guidance.

At LEX light returns showing up right now on radar will shift off to
the northeast shortly. Still think LEX could have a very short window of
very light freezing rain in the morning before changing to all rain.

BWG should stay out of the wintry precipitation. Rain looks to start
there by mid morning and continue off and on through the day.

All sites will saturate aloft overnight with cloud bases lowering.
MVFR cigs are expected to develop by 12Z with IFR cigs developing by
mid to late morning. Winds will eventually shift to
south-southwesterly today then to the west to northwest eventually
late Saturday night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Hydrology.........MJ
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010501
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1201 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 953 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Have started picking up a few reports of light precipitation across
the area. In general p-type south of the Ohio River is sleet or
snow, with all snow north of the river. At the same time, the LVX
VWP is showing saturation down to 2000 feet, with a marked increase
in low level jetting over the past hour and a half. Had an AMDAR
descent sounding about an hour ago that still showed an impressive
dry layer around 4000 feet with the warm nose right at the freezing
mark. However, low level thermal/moisture profiles still suggest
that all snow would be supported when the column saturates. Forecast
still looks on track as p-types should behave as initially expected
once better saturation occurs. Did update the Special Weather
Statement to include a few more counties on the southern end with
initial light wintry mix, although the chance at more widespread
impacts is pretty low.

Previous Update...
Issued at 819 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The forecast is in good shape so far this evening. The lower levels
are beginning to saturate (as evidenced by the LVX VWP and
decreasing T/Td depressions) as deeper moisture transport/isentropic
lift arrives with an increasing LLJ. Will start to see
precipitation  hitting the ground across our CWA over the next 1 to
2 hours, with southern Indiana and north central Kentucky seeing
light snow to start off. The warm nose is expected to lift north to
around the Ohio River by Midnight, with p-type changing to a light
wintry mix and snow persisting across southern IN. Amounts still
look good with 1 to 2 inches of snow across our Advisory area,
followed by some very light icing possible tomorrow. South of the
Advisory is a Special Weather Statement where a half inch or less of
snow may combine with a glaze of icing possible through around
daybreak Sunday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The chance for any wintry precipitation overnight will be the main
concern for this forecast. Any frozen precipitation will then change
to all rain by around 12Z with rain continuing off an on through the
rest of the day.

For SDF a batch of rain and sleet moved through over the last hour.
For now the airport is in a clear slot. The latest mesoscale models
suggest that SDF will remain dry for at least the next couple of
hours. Thereafter, some freezing rain and maybe some sleet could
move in. Temperatures are hovering right above freezing right now,
but could fall a degree or two before beginning to rise around
sunrise. The timing of freezing rain in the TAF was shortened based
on the latest guidance.

At LEX light returns showing up right now on radar will shift off to
the northeast shortly. Still think LEX could have a very short window of
very light freezing rain in the morning before changing to all rain.

BWG should stay out of the wintry precipitation. Rain looks to start
there by mid morning and continue off and on through the day.

All sites will saturate aloft overnight with cloud bases lowering.
MVFR cigs are expected to develop by 12Z with IFR cigs developing by
mid to late morning. Winds will eventually shift to
south-southwesterly today then to the west to northwest eventually
late Saturday night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010501
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1201 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 953 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Have started picking up a few reports of light precipitation across
the area. In general p-type south of the Ohio River is sleet or
snow, with all snow north of the river. At the same time, the LVX
VWP is showing saturation down to 2000 feet, with a marked increase
in low level jetting over the past hour and a half. Had an AMDAR
descent sounding about an hour ago that still showed an impressive
dry layer around 4000 feet with the warm nose right at the freezing
mark. However, low level thermal/moisture profiles still suggest
that all snow would be supported when the column saturates. Forecast
still looks on track as p-types should behave as initially expected
once better saturation occurs. Did update the Special Weather
Statement to include a few more counties on the southern end with
initial light wintry mix, although the chance at more widespread
impacts is pretty low.

Previous Update...
Issued at 819 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The forecast is in good shape so far this evening. The lower levels
are beginning to saturate (as evidenced by the LVX VWP and
decreasing T/Td depressions) as deeper moisture transport/isentropic
lift arrives with an increasing LLJ. Will start to see
precipitation  hitting the ground across our CWA over the next 1 to
2 hours, with southern Indiana and north central Kentucky seeing
light snow to start off. The warm nose is expected to lift north to
around the Ohio River by Midnight, with p-type changing to a light
wintry mix and snow persisting across southern IN. Amounts still
look good with 1 to 2 inches of snow across our Advisory area,
followed by some very light icing possible tomorrow. South of the
Advisory is a Special Weather Statement where a half inch or less of
snow may combine with a glaze of icing possible through around
daybreak Sunday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The chance for any wintry precipitation overnight will be the main
concern for this forecast. Any frozen precipitation will then change
to all rain by around 12Z with rain continuing off an on through the
rest of the day.

For SDF a batch of rain and sleet moved through over the last hour.
For now the airport is in a clear slot. The latest mesoscale models
suggest that SDF will remain dry for at least the next couple of
hours. Thereafter, some freezing rain and maybe some sleet could
move in. Temperatures are hovering right above freezing right now,
but could fall a degree or two before beginning to rise around
sunrise. The timing of freezing rain in the TAF was shortened based
on the latest guidance.

At LEX light returns showing up right now on radar will shift off to
the northeast shortly. Still think LEX could have a very short window of
very light freezing rain in the morning before changing to all rain.

BWG should stay out of the wintry precipitation. Rain looks to start
there by mid morning and continue off and on through the day.

All sites will saturate aloft overnight with cloud bases lowering.
MVFR cigs are expected to develop by 12Z with IFR cigs developing by
mid to late morning. Winds will eventually shift to
south-southwesterly today then to the west to northwest eventually
late Saturday night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010501
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1201 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 953 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Have started picking up a few reports of light precipitation across
the area. In general p-type south of the Ohio River is sleet or
snow, with all snow north of the river. At the same time, the LVX
VWP is showing saturation down to 2000 feet, with a marked increase
in low level jetting over the past hour and a half. Had an AMDAR
descent sounding about an hour ago that still showed an impressive
dry layer around 4000 feet with the warm nose right at the freezing
mark. However, low level thermal/moisture profiles still suggest
that all snow would be supported when the column saturates. Forecast
still looks on track as p-types should behave as initially expected
once better saturation occurs. Did update the Special Weather
Statement to include a few more counties on the southern end with
initial light wintry mix, although the chance at more widespread
impacts is pretty low.

Previous Update...
Issued at 819 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The forecast is in good shape so far this evening. The lower levels
are beginning to saturate (as evidenced by the LVX VWP and
decreasing T/Td depressions) as deeper moisture transport/isentropic
lift arrives with an increasing LLJ. Will start to see
precipitation  hitting the ground across our CWA over the next 1 to
2 hours, with southern Indiana and north central Kentucky seeing
light snow to start off. The warm nose is expected to lift north to
around the Ohio River by Midnight, with p-type changing to a light
wintry mix and snow persisting across southern IN. Amounts still
look good with 1 to 2 inches of snow across our Advisory area,
followed by some very light icing possible tomorrow. South of the
Advisory is a Special Weather Statement where a half inch or less of
snow may combine with a glaze of icing possible through around
daybreak Sunday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The chance for any wintry precipitation overnight will be the main
concern for this forecast. Any frozen precipitation will then change
to all rain by around 12Z with rain continuing off an on through the
rest of the day.

For SDF a batch of rain and sleet moved through over the last hour.
For now the airport is in a clear slot. The latest mesoscale models
suggest that SDF will remain dry for at least the next couple of
hours. Thereafter, some freezing rain and maybe some sleet could
move in. Temperatures are hovering right above freezing right now,
but could fall a degree or two before beginning to rise around
sunrise. The timing of freezing rain in the TAF was shortened based
on the latest guidance.

At LEX light returns showing up right now on radar will shift off to
the northeast shortly. Still think LEX could have a very short window of
very light freezing rain in the morning before changing to all rain.

BWG should stay out of the wintry precipitation. Rain looks to start
there by mid morning and continue off and on through the day.

All sites will saturate aloft overnight with cloud bases lowering.
MVFR cigs are expected to develop by 12Z with IFR cigs developing by
mid to late morning. Winds will eventually shift to
south-southwesterly today then to the west to northwest eventually
late Saturday night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 010501
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1201 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 953 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Have started picking up a few reports of light precipitation across
the area. In general p-type south of the Ohio River is sleet or
snow, with all snow north of the river. At the same time, the LVX
VWP is showing saturation down to 2000 feet, with a marked increase
in low level jetting over the past hour and a half. Had an AMDAR
descent sounding about an hour ago that still showed an impressive
dry layer around 4000 feet with the warm nose right at the freezing
mark. However, low level thermal/moisture profiles still suggest
that all snow would be supported when the column saturates. Forecast
still looks on track as p-types should behave as initially expected
once better saturation occurs. Did update the Special Weather
Statement to include a few more counties on the southern end with
initial light wintry mix, although the chance at more widespread
impacts is pretty low.

Previous Update...
Issued at 819 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The forecast is in good shape so far this evening. The lower levels
are beginning to saturate (as evidenced by the LVX VWP and
decreasing T/Td depressions) as deeper moisture transport/isentropic
lift arrives with an increasing LLJ. Will start to see
precipitation  hitting the ground across our CWA over the next 1 to
2 hours, with southern Indiana and north central Kentucky seeing
light snow to start off. The warm nose is expected to lift north to
around the Ohio River by Midnight, with p-type changing to a light
wintry mix and snow persisting across southern IN. Amounts still
look good with 1 to 2 inches of snow across our Advisory area,
followed by some very light icing possible tomorrow. South of the
Advisory is a Special Weather Statement where a half inch or less of
snow may combine with a glaze of icing possible through around
daybreak Sunday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The chance for any wintry precipitation overnight will be the main
concern for this forecast. Any frozen precipitation will then change
to all rain by around 12Z with rain continuing off an on through the
rest of the day.

For SDF a batch of rain and sleet moved through over the last hour.
For now the airport is in a clear slot. The latest mesoscale models
suggest that SDF will remain dry for at least the next couple of
hours. Thereafter, some freezing rain and maybe some sleet could
move in. Temperatures are hovering right above freezing right now,
but could fall a degree or two before beginning to rise around
sunrise. The timing of freezing rain in the TAF was shortened based
on the latest guidance.

At LEX light returns showing up right now on radar will shift off to
the northeast shortly. Still think LEX could have a very short window of
very light freezing rain in the morning before changing to all rain.

BWG should stay out of the wintry precipitation. Rain looks to start
there by mid morning and continue off and on through the day.

All sites will saturate aloft overnight with cloud bases lowering.
MVFR cigs are expected to develop by 12Z with IFR cigs developing by
mid to late morning. Winds will eventually shift to
south-southwesterly today then to the west to northwest eventually
late Saturday night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 010253
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
953 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 953 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Have started picking up a few reports of light precipitation across
the area. In general p-type south of the Ohio River is sleet or
snow, with all snow north of the river. At the same time, the LVX
VWP is showing saturation down to 2000 feet, with a marked increase
in low level jetting over the past hour and a half. Had an AMDAR
descent sounding about an hour ago that still showed an impressive
dry layer around 4000 feet with the warm nose right at the freezing
mark. However, low level thermal/moisture profiles still suggest
that all snow would be supported when the column saturates. Forecast
still looks on track as p-types should behave as initially expected
once better saturation occurs. Did update the Special Weather
Statement to include a few more counties on the southern end with
initial light wintry mix, although the chance at more widespread
impacts is pretty low.

Previous Update...
Issued at 819 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The forecast is in good shape so far this evening. The lower levels
are beginning to saturate (as evidenced by the LVX VWP and
decreasing T/Td depressions) as deeper moisture transport/isentropic
lift arrives with an increasing LLJ. Will start to see
precipitation  hitting the ground across our CWA over the next 1 to
2 hours, with southern Indiana and north central Kentucky seeing
light snow to start off. The warm nose is expected to lift north to
around the Ohio River by Midnight, with p-type changing to a light
wintry mix and snow persisting across southern IN. Amounts still
look good with 1 to 2 inches of snow across our Advisory area,
followed by some very light icing possible tomorrow. South of the
Advisory is a Special Weather Statement where a half inch or less of
snow may combine with a glaze of icing possible through around
daybreak Sunday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 608 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Expect VFR conditions at the start of this forecast cycle, although
ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate through the
evening and overnight hours.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as very light snow
or sleet between 04-06z then transition to a period of
sleet/freezing rain/snow mix 05-10z before going over to light
freezing rain or rain depending on surface temperatures around
daybreak. Plan on snow accumulation less than 1/2 inch and ice
accumulation of a few hundredths or less. Meanwhile, ceilings will
drop below fuel-alternate levels in the pre-dawn hours and into IFR
around sunrise, persisting through the remainder of the TAF period.
Visibilities are expected to be in the 3-4sm range though periods of
1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of an overall
threat for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm
above freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to
the north.  Best timing for a light wintry mix should be between 05
and 11z. Look for IFR ceilings to develop around sunrise Sunday
morning as increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR
conditions are then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the
weather system passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain
during the day.

At BWG, not expecting any wintry precipitation, although do expect
to see below fuel-alternate ceilings around sunrise Sunday morning,
with light rain developing by midday.

Overall, surface winds will remain steady out of the NE this
evening, gradually veering to easterly and then southeasterly through
the overnight. Winds will continue to veer to southerly and then
southwesterly between 5 and 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST Sunday FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010253
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
953 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 953 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Have started picking up a few reports of light precipitation across
the area. In general p-type south of the Ohio River is sleet or
snow, with all snow north of the river. At the same time, the LVX
VWP is showing saturation down to 2000 feet, with a marked increase
in low level jetting over the past hour and a half. Had an AMDAR
descent sounding about an hour ago that still showed an impressive
dry layer around 4000 feet with the warm nose right at the freezing
mark. However, low level thermal/moisture profiles still suggest
that all snow would be supported when the column saturates. Forecast
still looks on track as p-types should behave as initially expected
once better saturation occurs. Did update the Special Weather
Statement to include a few more counties on the southern end with
initial light wintry mix, although the chance at more widespread
impacts is pretty low.

Previous Update...
Issued at 819 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The forecast is in good shape so far this evening. The lower levels
are beginning to saturate (as evidenced by the LVX VWP and
decreasing T/Td depressions) as deeper moisture transport/isentropic
lift arrives with an increasing LLJ. Will start to see
precipitation  hitting the ground across our CWA over the next 1 to
2 hours, with southern Indiana and north central Kentucky seeing
light snow to start off. The warm nose is expected to lift north to
around the Ohio River by Midnight, with p-type changing to a light
wintry mix and snow persisting across southern IN. Amounts still
look good with 1 to 2 inches of snow across our Advisory area,
followed by some very light icing possible tomorrow. South of the
Advisory is a Special Weather Statement where a half inch or less of
snow may combine with a glaze of icing possible through around
daybreak Sunday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 608 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Expect VFR conditions at the start of this forecast cycle, although
ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate through the
evening and overnight hours.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as very light snow
or sleet between 04-06z then transition to a period of
sleet/freezing rain/snow mix 05-10z before going over to light
freezing rain or rain depending on surface temperatures around
daybreak. Plan on snow accumulation less than 1/2 inch and ice
accumulation of a few hundredths or less. Meanwhile, ceilings will
drop below fuel-alternate levels in the pre-dawn hours and into IFR
around sunrise, persisting through the remainder of the TAF period.
Visibilities are expected to be in the 3-4sm range though periods of
1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of an overall
threat for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm
above freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to
the north.  Best timing for a light wintry mix should be between 05
and 11z. Look for IFR ceilings to develop around sunrise Sunday
morning as increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR
conditions are then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the
weather system passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain
during the day.

At BWG, not expecting any wintry precipitation, although do expect
to see below fuel-alternate ceilings around sunrise Sunday morning,
with light rain developing by midday.

Overall, surface winds will remain steady out of the NE this
evening, gradually veering to easterly and then southeasterly through
the overnight. Winds will continue to veer to southerly and then
southwesterly between 5 and 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST Sunday FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 010253
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
953 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 953 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Have started picking up a few reports of light precipitation across
the area. In general p-type south of the Ohio River is sleet or
snow, with all snow north of the river. At the same time, the LVX
VWP is showing saturation down to 2000 feet, with a marked increase
in low level jetting over the past hour and a half. Had an AMDAR
descent sounding about an hour ago that still showed an impressive
dry layer around 4000 feet with the warm nose right at the freezing
mark. However, low level thermal/moisture profiles still suggest
that all snow would be supported when the column saturates. Forecast
still looks on track as p-types should behave as initially expected
once better saturation occurs. Did update the Special Weather
Statement to include a few more counties on the southern end with
initial light wintry mix, although the chance at more widespread
impacts is pretty low.

Previous Update...
Issued at 819 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The forecast is in good shape so far this evening. The lower levels
are beginning to saturate (as evidenced by the LVX VWP and
decreasing T/Td depressions) as deeper moisture transport/isentropic
lift arrives with an increasing LLJ. Will start to see
precipitation  hitting the ground across our CWA over the next 1 to
2 hours, with southern Indiana and north central Kentucky seeing
light snow to start off. The warm nose is expected to lift north to
around the Ohio River by Midnight, with p-type changing to a light
wintry mix and snow persisting across southern IN. Amounts still
look good with 1 to 2 inches of snow across our Advisory area,
followed by some very light icing possible tomorrow. South of the
Advisory is a Special Weather Statement where a half inch or less of
snow may combine with a glaze of icing possible through around
daybreak Sunday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 608 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Expect VFR conditions at the start of this forecast cycle, although
ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate through the
evening and overnight hours.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as very light snow
or sleet between 04-06z then transition to a period of
sleet/freezing rain/snow mix 05-10z before going over to light
freezing rain or rain depending on surface temperatures around
daybreak. Plan on snow accumulation less than 1/2 inch and ice
accumulation of a few hundredths or less. Meanwhile, ceilings will
drop below fuel-alternate levels in the pre-dawn hours and into IFR
around sunrise, persisting through the remainder of the TAF period.
Visibilities are expected to be in the 3-4sm range though periods of
1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of an overall
threat for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm
above freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to
the north.  Best timing for a light wintry mix should be between 05
and 11z. Look for IFR ceilings to develop around sunrise Sunday
morning as increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR
conditions are then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the
weather system passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain
during the day.

At BWG, not expecting any wintry precipitation, although do expect
to see below fuel-alternate ceilings around sunrise Sunday morning,
with light rain developing by midday.

Overall, surface winds will remain steady out of the NE this
evening, gradually veering to easterly and then southeasterly through
the overnight. Winds will continue to veer to southerly and then
southwesterly between 5 and 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST Sunday FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 010119
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
819 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 819 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The forecast is in good shape so far this evening. The lower levels
are beginning to saturate (as evidenced by the LVX VWP and
decreasing T/Td depressions) as deeper moisture transport/isentropic
lift arrives with an increasing LLJ. Will start to see
precipitation  hitting the ground across our CWA over the next 1 to
2 hours, with southern Indiana and north central Kentucky seeing
light snow to start off. The warm nose is expected to lift north to
around the Ohio River by Midnight, with p-type changing to a light
wintry mix and snow persisting across southern IN. Amounts still
look good with 1 to 2 inches of snow across our Advisory area,
followed by some very light icing possible tomorrow. South of the
Advisory is a Special Weather Statement where a half inch or less of
snow may combine with a glaze of icing possible through around
daybreak Sunday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 608 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Expect VFR conditions at the start of this forecast cycle, although
ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate through the
evening and overnight hours.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as very light snow
or sleet between 04-06z then transition to a period of
sleet/freezing rain/snow mix 05-10z before going over to light
freezing rain or rain depending on surface temperatures around
daybreak. Plan on snow accumulation less than 1/2 inch and ice
accumulation of a few hundredths or less. Meanwhile, ceilings will
drop below fuel-alternate levels in the pre-dawn hours and into IFR
around sunrise, persisting through the remainder of the TAF period.
Visibilities are expected to be in the 3-4sm range though periods of
1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of an overall
threat for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm
above freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to
the north.  Best timing for a light wintry mix should be between 05
and 11z. Look for IFR ceilings to develop around sunrise Sunday
morning as increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR
conditions are then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the
weather system passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain
during the day.

At BWG, not expecting any wintry precipitation, although do expect
to see below fuel-alternate ceilings around sunrise Sunday morning,
with light rain developing by midday.

Overall, surface winds will remain steady out of the NE this
evening, gradually veering to easterly and then southeasterly through
the overnight. Winds will continue to veer to southerly and then
southwesterly between 5 and 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST Sunday FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 010119
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
819 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 819 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The forecast is in good shape so far this evening. The lower levels
are beginning to saturate (as evidenced by the LVX VWP and
decreasing T/Td depressions) as deeper moisture transport/isentropic
lift arrives with an increasing LLJ. Will start to see
precipitation  hitting the ground across our CWA over the next 1 to
2 hours, with southern Indiana and north central Kentucky seeing
light snow to start off. The warm nose is expected to lift north to
around the Ohio River by Midnight, with p-type changing to a light
wintry mix and snow persisting across southern IN. Amounts still
look good with 1 to 2 inches of snow across our Advisory area,
followed by some very light icing possible tomorrow. South of the
Advisory is a Special Weather Statement where a half inch or less of
snow may combine with a glaze of icing possible through around
daybreak Sunday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 608 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Expect VFR conditions at the start of this forecast cycle, although
ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate through the
evening and overnight hours.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as very light snow
or sleet between 04-06z then transition to a period of
sleet/freezing rain/snow mix 05-10z before going over to light
freezing rain or rain depending on surface temperatures around
daybreak. Plan on snow accumulation less than 1/2 inch and ice
accumulation of a few hundredths or less. Meanwhile, ceilings will
drop below fuel-alternate levels in the pre-dawn hours and into IFR
around sunrise, persisting through the remainder of the TAF period.
Visibilities are expected to be in the 3-4sm range though periods of
1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of an overall
threat for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm
above freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to
the north.  Best timing for a light wintry mix should be between 05
and 11z. Look for IFR ceilings to develop around sunrise Sunday
morning as increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR
conditions are then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the
weather system passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain
during the day.

At BWG, not expecting any wintry precipitation, although do expect
to see below fuel-alternate ceilings around sunrise Sunday morning,
with light rain developing by midday.

Overall, surface winds will remain steady out of the NE this
evening, gradually veering to easterly and then southeasterly through
the overnight. Winds will continue to veer to southerly and then
southwesterly between 5 and 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST Sunday FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 282308
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
608 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 608 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Expect VFR conditions at the start of this forecast cycle, although
ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate through the
evening and overnight hours.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as very light snow
or sleet between 04-06z then transition to a period of
sleet/freezing rain/snow mix 05-10z before going over to light
freezing rain or rain depending on surface temperatures around
daybreak. Plan on snow accumulation less than 1/2 inch and ice
accumulation of a few hundredths or less. Meanwhile, ceilings will
drop below fuel-alternate levels in the pre-dawn hours and into IFR
around sunrise, persisting through the remainder of the TAF period.
Visibilities are expected to be in the 3-4sm range though periods of
1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of an overall
threat for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm
above freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to
the north.  Best timing for a light wintry mix should be between 05
and 11z. Look for IFR ceilings to develop around sunrise Sunday
morning as increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR
conditions are then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the
weather system passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain
during the day.

At BWG, not expecting any wintry precipitation, although do expect
to see below fuel-alternate ceilings around sunrise Sunday morning,
with light rain developing by midday.

Overall, surface winds will remain steady out of the NE this
evening, gradually veering to easterly and then southeasterly through
the overnight. Winds will continue to veer to southerly and then
southwesterly between 5 and 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST Sunday FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........RAS
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 282308
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
608 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 608 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Expect VFR conditions at the start of this forecast cycle, although
ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate through the
evening and overnight hours.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as very light snow
or sleet between 04-06z then transition to a period of
sleet/freezing rain/snow mix 05-10z before going over to light
freezing rain or rain depending on surface temperatures around
daybreak. Plan on snow accumulation less than 1/2 inch and ice
accumulation of a few hundredths or less. Meanwhile, ceilings will
drop below fuel-alternate levels in the pre-dawn hours and into IFR
around sunrise, persisting through the remainder of the TAF period.
Visibilities are expected to be in the 3-4sm range though periods of
1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of an overall
threat for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm
above freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to
the north.  Best timing for a light wintry mix should be between 05
and 11z. Look for IFR ceilings to develop around sunrise Sunday
morning as increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR
conditions are then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the
weather system passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain
during the day.

At BWG, not expecting any wintry precipitation, although do expect
to see below fuel-alternate ceilings around sunrise Sunday morning,
with light rain developing by midday.

Overall, surface winds will remain steady out of the NE this
evening, gradually veering to easterly and then southeasterly through
the overnight. Winds will continue to veer to southerly and then
southwesterly between 5 and 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST Sunday FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........RAS
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 282308
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
608 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 608 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Expect VFR conditions at the start of this forecast cycle, although
ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate through the
evening and overnight hours.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as very light snow
or sleet between 04-06z then transition to a period of
sleet/freezing rain/snow mix 05-10z before going over to light
freezing rain or rain depending on surface temperatures around
daybreak. Plan on snow accumulation less than 1/2 inch and ice
accumulation of a few hundredths or less. Meanwhile, ceilings will
drop below fuel-alternate levels in the pre-dawn hours and into IFR
around sunrise, persisting through the remainder of the TAF period.
Visibilities are expected to be in the 3-4sm range though periods of
1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of an overall
threat for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm
above freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to
the north.  Best timing for a light wintry mix should be between 05
and 11z. Look for IFR ceilings to develop around sunrise Sunday
morning as increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR
conditions are then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the
weather system passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain
during the day.

At BWG, not expecting any wintry precipitation, although do expect
to see below fuel-alternate ceilings around sunrise Sunday morning,
with light rain developing by midday.

Overall, surface winds will remain steady out of the NE this
evening, gradually veering to easterly and then southeasterly through
the overnight. Winds will continue to veer to southerly and then
southwesterly between 5 and 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST Sunday FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........RAS
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 282308
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
608 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 608 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Expect VFR conditions at the start of this forecast cycle, although
ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate through the
evening and overnight hours.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as very light snow
or sleet between 04-06z then transition to a period of
sleet/freezing rain/snow mix 05-10z before going over to light
freezing rain or rain depending on surface temperatures around
daybreak. Plan on snow accumulation less than 1/2 inch and ice
accumulation of a few hundredths or less. Meanwhile, ceilings will
drop below fuel-alternate levels in the pre-dawn hours and into IFR
around sunrise, persisting through the remainder of the TAF period.
Visibilities are expected to be in the 3-4sm range though periods of
1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of an overall
threat for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm
above freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to
the north.  Best timing for a light wintry mix should be between 05
and 11z. Look for IFR ceilings to develop around sunrise Sunday
morning as increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR
conditions are then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the
weather system passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain
during the day.

At BWG, not expecting any wintry precipitation, although do expect
to see below fuel-alternate ceilings around sunrise Sunday morning,
with light rain developing by midday.

Overall, surface winds will remain steady out of the NE this
evening, gradually veering to easterly and then southeasterly through
the overnight. Winds will continue to veer to southerly and then
southwesterly between 5 and 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST Sunday FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........RAS
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 282009
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Plan on VFR conditions through 00z at all TAF sites but as a weather
system approaches from the west, look for lowering ceilings and
precipitation onset by 03z at SDF and at LEX after 06z. BWG is
expected to remain VFR and dry through at least 12z Sunday.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as light snow between
03-06z then transition to a period of sleet/freezing rain/snow mix
06-10z before going over to light freezing rain or rain depending on
surface temperatures through 12-13z. Plan on snow accumulation less
than 1/2 inch and ice accumulation of a few hundredths or less.
Meanwhile, ceilings will drop below fuel-alternate levels soon after
precipitation onset and into IFR after 06z, persisting through the
remainder of the TAF period. Visibilities are expected to be in the
3-4sm range though periods of 1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of a threat
for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm above
freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to the
north. Look for IFR ceilings to develop toward Sunday morning as
increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR conditions are
then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the weather system
passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain during the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Sunday FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........RAS
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 282009
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Plan on VFR conditions through 00z at all TAF sites but as a weather
system approaches from the west, look for lowering ceilings and
precipitation onset by 03z at SDF and at LEX after 06z. BWG is
expected to remain VFR and dry through at least 12z Sunday.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as light snow between
03-06z then transition to a period of sleet/freezing rain/snow mix
06-10z before going over to light freezing rain or rain depending on
surface temperatures through 12-13z. Plan on snow accumulation less
than 1/2 inch and ice accumulation of a few hundredths or less.
Meanwhile, ceilings will drop below fuel-alternate levels soon after
precipitation onset and into IFR after 06z, persisting through the
remainder of the TAF period. Visibilities are expected to be in the
3-4sm range though periods of 1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of a threat
for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm above
freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to the
north. Look for IFR ceilings to develop toward Sunday morning as
increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR conditions are
then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the weather system
passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain during the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Sunday FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........RAS
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 282009
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Snow to Wintry Mix Tonight Into Sunday Morning...

The main focus in the short term is on the snow to wintry mix threat
for southern Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight through Sunday
morning.

As of mid afternoon, latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb
heights shows broad zonal to southwesterly flow as weak shortwave
troughs move through the Southwest into the central Plains. At the
surface, our air mass is characterized by dry low levels as
observed by the 28.12z BNA/ILN/ILX soundings. Surface high pressure
is slowly moving off to the northeast, resulting in northeast to
easterly flow. Mid afternoon readings are mainly in the 30s.

Current mosaic radar shows a band of precipitation across Missouri,
which will begin to move east into the southern IL and IN over the
coming hours. Increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces
and moist, warmer southerly flow between 800-900 mb will begin to
saturate the dry air mass this evening. The focus for precipitation
will lie mainly north of the KY parkways between 00-06z where
thermal profiles support all light snow at the onset.

Model Uncertainty / Preference:

The main challenge is the degree of warming aloft between 06-12z and
impacts on precipitation type. 28.12z NAM and GFS were warm but
still only bring a +1 to +3C layer to northern Kentucky by 09z. What
is concerning is that the low-level jet isn`t overly impressive, so
the degree of warming may be limited. Finally, a time trend analysis
has been cooler and the latest GEM/ECMWF also show the warm nose
barely peaks at +1C through 18z Sunday. As such, leaned toward a
slightly cooler solution aloft and adjusted QPF south to account for
the latest trends. A look at some of the hi-res models such as the
HRRR and ARW/NMM show a tight precip gradient across southern
Indiana.

Timing:

Expecting precipitation to break out in the northwest between
00-03z, although initially it will have to overcome the dry
sub-cloud layer. This should work east/southeast through 06z,
reaching the far eastern areas such as Trimble County after
midnight. The bulk of the snow / wintry mix should fall between
midnight and 9 am before going over to rain.

Impacts / Amounts:

The adjustments above resulted in snow amounts of 1-2 inches from
Dubois to Jefferson County, Indiana with roughly 1 inch or less
possible across the remainder of southern Indiana into far northern
Kentucky. As such, we expanded the winter weather advisory a tier of
counties southward to the Ohio River. The combination of 1-2 inches
of snow and ice accumulations of 0.05 inch or less would make for
slick and potentially hazardous roads overnight into Sunday morning.
Finally, a look at the KY and IN RWIS data shows road temperatures
are in the upper 20s, so even light precipitation will create a
glaze on surfaces. Across northern Kentucky, including the
Louisville metro region, plan on a shorter period of light snow to
light wintry mix overnight, possibly making for some slick roads
Sunday morning. Will highlight this area with a SPS.

Sunday - Sunday Night:

Surface temperatures look to warm above freezing across the entire
area late morning as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.
This front will bring showers to the area into the evening hours,
northwest to southeast. Highs look to top out around 40 in the north
to mid/upper 40s south of the KY parkways. After midnight Sunday
into early Monday morning, northerly flow will bring cooler
temperatures aloft and at the surface, potentially changing
precipitation back over to a light wintry mix or snow. This is a
case of the cold air chasing the precip and for the most part,
expecting the precip to win. For now, kept a wintry mix on the outer
fringe of the POPs as it exits the forecast area. Plan on lows to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

Progressive upper pattern and an active southern stream will make
for active weather in the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
After a quiet but cool Monday, an impulse will eject out of the
deeper trof digging down the California coast. A surface low will
develop in the lee of the Rockies and quickly scoot into the Great
Lakes, dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Strong low-level
jetting will draw copious Gulf moisture northward, with a solid
36-48 hrs of categorical POPs in the forecast Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

Biggest issue with this system will be QPF. Still some differences
between models in just how far north this will occur, but the front
will hang up somewhere across Kentucky and serve as a focus for 2-3
inches of QPF, with localized 4 inch amounts possible. Given recent
rains and still some remaining snowpack, this could have substantial
flood impacts which are outlined in the Hydrology portion of this
discussion.

SVR potential is limited by a strong warm nose near 850mb that will
keep anything from becoming surface based. However, there is enough
elevated instability to support the mention of thunder Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Best chance of actually drawing any
sfc-based instability will be across south central Kentucky where
temps punch into the 60s, but any severe probabilities remain quite
low.

Wednesday into Wednesday night could be interesting from a winter
perspective as much colder air spills into the area. but the WSW
moisture feed aloft continues. Went with a non-diurnal curve as
temps will be in free-fall beginning around 06Z Wednesday and crash
through the 40s and 30s during the day. Wednesday afternoon precip
may have a tough time changing over to snow in Kentucky, but expect
a quick change on Wednesday evening with enough QPF remaining to
support at least some accumulating snows. This scenario has played
out before, in March 1995 as noted by the previous forecaster.
Confidence in this solution remains low, so will not get too carried
away with the details beyond a mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region late
Thursday as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Plan on VFR conditions through 00z at all TAF sites but as a weather
system approaches from the west, look for lowering ceilings and
precipitation onset by 03z at SDF and at LEX after 06z. BWG is
expected to remain VFR and dry through at least 12z Sunday.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as light snow between
03-06z then transition to a period of sleet/freezing rain/snow mix
06-10z before going over to light freezing rain or rain depending on
surface temperatures through 12-13z. Plan on snow accumulation less
than 1/2 inch and ice accumulation of a few hundredths or less.
Meanwhile, ceilings will drop below fuel-alternate levels soon after
precipitation onset and into IFR after 06z, persisting through the
remainder of the TAF period. Visibilities are expected to be in the
3-4sm range though periods of 1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of a threat
for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm above
freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to the
north. Look for IFR ceilings to develop toward Sunday morning as
increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR conditions are
then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the weather system
passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain during the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Sunday FOR KYZ032.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........RAS
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281655
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Forecast for the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon
largely on track. Subtle shortwave trough aloft combined with
increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces is resulting in
weak radar returns across the area this morning. 28.12z ILX/BNA
soundings were very dry below 750 mb but it`s possible flurries or
very light snow is making it to the ground. Extended this for the
remainder of the morning hours. Otherwise, rest of the forecast
looks good.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Light Snow or a Wintry Mix Possible Tonight...

The short term period will be characterized by southwesterly flow
aloft as a deep trough develops over California. At the surface this
morning sprawling high pressure sits just to the north of the
forecast area. This high pressure will shift eastward with a weak
trough developing across the region today into tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through this afternoon. Mid level clouds
are present across the region this morning and bases should lower
through the day. Highs today will range from the lower 40s near the
Tennessee border to near freezing across southern Indiana and
portions of north central KY.

This evening and tonight pose more of a challenge as a weak upper
level wave and isentropic lift result in increasing moisture and
precipitation. Precipitation looks to move into southern Indiana
from the west during the evening hours and spread across the IN
counties through the evening. The models remain in a bit of
disagreement with how far south the precipitation shield will
spread. The 0Z NAM is the farthest north and would keep the precip
across our northernmost counties for most of the night. Most of the
other models spread it further south and bring at least a slight
chance to the entire forecast area by morning.

The other question will be precipitation type. The NAM is the most
aggressive with bringing in a warm layer aloft, but as mentioned
before, the precipitation shield is much farther north. Leaned
slightly towards the cooler side of things. Thus, there could be a
brief chance for some freezing rain towards morning Sunday, but
looking at thermal profiles, it does not look too likely at this
point. If we do get any, accumulations would only be a few
hundredths of an inch or less. The best chance for accumulating snow
looks to be across our northernmost counties in southern IN. Think
1-2 inches of snow will be possible tonight across this region, so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Some light accumulations look
to reach as far south as the river, but they look to stay under an
inch.

Regardless of what happens tonight, temperatures on Sunday should
warm quickly under southerly flow. All areas should transition to
rain by mid morning with rain continuing through the day on Sunday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in the south to around 40 in the
north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

The long term period continues to look very active as two system
will bring precipitation to the region.

System 1: Sunday night through Monday Night

System number one will be in progress at the start of the forecast
period.  As an area of low pressure continues to move northeastward
and away from the area, a surface cold front will sag southward
through the region.  Rain showers will be the predominant
precipitation type early Sunday night across the region.  However,
colder air will work into the region from the northwest as the
precipitation shield moves eastward.  This will result in the rain
changing over to a wintry mix and then over to plain snow before
ending.  Initially thought that we`d have more of a freezing rain
threat as the atmospheric column dried out and we lost moisture in
the ICZ.  However, the latest runs have trended a little more moist
in the column which would support more of a snow/sleet mix going
over to snow before ending.  Precipitation still looks to move out
quicker than the cold air can get in, so the length of time of
wintry precipitation late Sunday night looks to be a short window.
Nonetheless, a dusting or minor accumulation may be possible.  Lows
Sunday night will cool into the mid-upper 20s in the north with
lower 30s in the south.

We still expect to see a modified Arctic airmass spill into the
region for Monday and into Monday night which will provide the area
with a brief reprieve in the weather.  This break in the weather
will be short lived as the next system will quickly move into the
region late Monday night.  Highs Monday will warm back into the
mid-upper 30s in the north with upper 30s to the lower 40s across
the south.  By late Monday night, the cold front to the south will
retreat northward as a warm front and result in precipitation moving
back into the region from the southwest.  Temperatures look to
bottom out in the upper 20s in the north with near freezing
temperatures down across the south just after midnight.
Temperatures look to rise in the later half of the night, which
should result in mostly rain across the south.  Further north,
perhaps from the Parkways northward, a wintry mix of rain and
freezing rain will be possible for a short period.  This may result
in some minor icing accumulations before temperatures rise above
freezing after sunrise Tuesday.

System 2: Tuesday - Friday

By Tuesday, high pressure will be located to our east and we should
be firmly in a return flow/southerly wind pattern.  A fairly potent
upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the western US and
result in lee-side cyclogenesis.  This low looks to track from the
Plains through the upper Midwest and into southern Great Lakes.  We
will be on the warm side of this weather system and will see our
temperatures spike up for a short period of time.  Aloft, a fairly
impressive 300 hPa jet streak will be in place aloft combined with
an increasing low-level jet near 850 hPa will support strong
moisture advection into the region.  Instability is somewhat in
question given the large amount of cloud cover.  CAPE values are
still fairly low (100-200 J/Kg), but in the cool season, the high
shear/low CAPE environments often produce severe weather.  The SLU
CIPS analogs have been suggesting the threat of severe weather over
the SE US for the last several days.  We still think that is very
possible with the highest threat a little south of here, but it
would not take much to advect some of the higher instability values
up this way.

Moderate to heavy rainfall out ahead of the synoptic front looks
likely.  That combined with embedded thunderstorms could pose a risk
of flooding across the region during this time period.  Current QPF
forecasts suggest 2-3 inches of rainfall across the area...though
the OP GFS and Euro have slightly different placements on the QPF.
The timing for the heaviest rainfall would be Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues are likely to develop
across the region.  Those concerns are addressed in the Hydrology
section below.  Highs Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.  Highs Wednesday will likely peak early in the day
with falling temps through the remainder of the day.  Early day
highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look likely at this point.

As the synoptic front presses southward, modified Arctic air will
sink into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The
models have been signaling the potential for several waves of low
pressure moving northeastward along the front, which looks to bring
yet another wave of light to moderate precipitation into the
region.  With the Arctic air pushing in from the north, this may
result in significant wintry weather across the region.  This is not
an unprecedented setup for wintry weather.  Something similar to
this set up occurred back in March 1995 where we had 65+ degree
temps that quickly transitioned back into the upper 20s/lower 30s
with several inches of snow as the Arctic air slipped back into the
region.  This will be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region by Friday
as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.  Generally
stuck close to the multi-model consensus here for temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing.
Additional precipitation is expected across the region with totals
of up to a half inch.  This precipitation combined with the snowmelt
will saturate the ground and result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A secondary storm system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
Around two to as much as two and half inches of rainfall is expected
with this storm system.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current forecast QPF projections, flooding
on the major river stems would likely begin Wednesday and continue
for the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy QPF axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River main stem.  We will continue to watch these
storms closely over the weekend and will continue coordination with
the RFC.  Residents in flood prone areas should closely monitor
water levels in the coming days and prepare for possible flooding by
midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Plan on VFR conditions through 00z at all TAF sites but as a weather
system approaches from the west, look for lowering ceilings and
precipitation onset by 03z at SDF and at LEX after 06z. BWG is
expected to remain VFR and dry through at least 12z Sunday.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as light snow between
03-06z then transition to a period of sleet/freezing rain/snow mix
06-10z before going over to light freezing rain or rain depending on
surface temperatures through 12-13z. Plan on snow accumulation less
than 1/2 inch and ice accumulation of a few hundredths or less.
Meanwhile, ceilings will drop below fuel-alternate levels soon after
precipitation onset and into IFR after 06z, persisting through the
remainder of the TAF period. Visibilities are expected to be in the
3-4sm range though periods of 1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of a threat
for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm above
freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to the
north. Look for IFR ceilings to develop toward Sunday morning as
increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR conditions are
then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the weather system
passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain during the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083.

&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Hydrology......MJ
Aviation.......ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281655
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Forecast for the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon
largely on track. Subtle shortwave trough aloft combined with
increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces is resulting in
weak radar returns across the area this morning. 28.12z ILX/BNA
soundings were very dry below 750 mb but it`s possible flurries or
very light snow is making it to the ground. Extended this for the
remainder of the morning hours. Otherwise, rest of the forecast
looks good.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Light Snow or a Wintry Mix Possible Tonight...

The short term period will be characterized by southwesterly flow
aloft as a deep trough develops over California. At the surface this
morning sprawling high pressure sits just to the north of the
forecast area. This high pressure will shift eastward with a weak
trough developing across the region today into tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through this afternoon. Mid level clouds
are present across the region this morning and bases should lower
through the day. Highs today will range from the lower 40s near the
Tennessee border to near freezing across southern Indiana and
portions of north central KY.

This evening and tonight pose more of a challenge as a weak upper
level wave and isentropic lift result in increasing moisture and
precipitation. Precipitation looks to move into southern Indiana
from the west during the evening hours and spread across the IN
counties through the evening. The models remain in a bit of
disagreement with how far south the precipitation shield will
spread. The 0Z NAM is the farthest north and would keep the precip
across our northernmost counties for most of the night. Most of the
other models spread it further south and bring at least a slight
chance to the entire forecast area by morning.

The other question will be precipitation type. The NAM is the most
aggressive with bringing in a warm layer aloft, but as mentioned
before, the precipitation shield is much farther north. Leaned
slightly towards the cooler side of things. Thus, there could be a
brief chance for some freezing rain towards morning Sunday, but
looking at thermal profiles, it does not look too likely at this
point. If we do get any, accumulations would only be a few
hundredths of an inch or less. The best chance for accumulating snow
looks to be across our northernmost counties in southern IN. Think
1-2 inches of snow will be possible tonight across this region, so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Some light accumulations look
to reach as far south as the river, but they look to stay under an
inch.

Regardless of what happens tonight, temperatures on Sunday should
warm quickly under southerly flow. All areas should transition to
rain by mid morning with rain continuing through the day on Sunday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in the south to around 40 in the
north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

The long term period continues to look very active as two system
will bring precipitation to the region.

System 1: Sunday night through Monday Night

System number one will be in progress at the start of the forecast
period.  As an area of low pressure continues to move northeastward
and away from the area, a surface cold front will sag southward
through the region.  Rain showers will be the predominant
precipitation type early Sunday night across the region.  However,
colder air will work into the region from the northwest as the
precipitation shield moves eastward.  This will result in the rain
changing over to a wintry mix and then over to plain snow before
ending.  Initially thought that we`d have more of a freezing rain
threat as the atmospheric column dried out and we lost moisture in
the ICZ.  However, the latest runs have trended a little more moist
in the column which would support more of a snow/sleet mix going
over to snow before ending.  Precipitation still looks to move out
quicker than the cold air can get in, so the length of time of
wintry precipitation late Sunday night looks to be a short window.
Nonetheless, a dusting or minor accumulation may be possible.  Lows
Sunday night will cool into the mid-upper 20s in the north with
lower 30s in the south.

We still expect to see a modified Arctic airmass spill into the
region for Monday and into Monday night which will provide the area
with a brief reprieve in the weather.  This break in the weather
will be short lived as the next system will quickly move into the
region late Monday night.  Highs Monday will warm back into the
mid-upper 30s in the north with upper 30s to the lower 40s across
the south.  By late Monday night, the cold front to the south will
retreat northward as a warm front and result in precipitation moving
back into the region from the southwest.  Temperatures look to
bottom out in the upper 20s in the north with near freezing
temperatures down across the south just after midnight.
Temperatures look to rise in the later half of the night, which
should result in mostly rain across the south.  Further north,
perhaps from the Parkways northward, a wintry mix of rain and
freezing rain will be possible for a short period.  This may result
in some minor icing accumulations before temperatures rise above
freezing after sunrise Tuesday.

System 2: Tuesday - Friday

By Tuesday, high pressure will be located to our east and we should
be firmly in a return flow/southerly wind pattern.  A fairly potent
upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the western US and
result in lee-side cyclogenesis.  This low looks to track from the
Plains through the upper Midwest and into southern Great Lakes.  We
will be on the warm side of this weather system and will see our
temperatures spike up for a short period of time.  Aloft, a fairly
impressive 300 hPa jet streak will be in place aloft combined with
an increasing low-level jet near 850 hPa will support strong
moisture advection into the region.  Instability is somewhat in
question given the large amount of cloud cover.  CAPE values are
still fairly low (100-200 J/Kg), but in the cool season, the high
shear/low CAPE environments often produce severe weather.  The SLU
CIPS analogs have been suggesting the threat of severe weather over
the SE US for the last several days.  We still think that is very
possible with the highest threat a little south of here, but it
would not take much to advect some of the higher instability values
up this way.

Moderate to heavy rainfall out ahead of the synoptic front looks
likely.  That combined with embedded thunderstorms could pose a risk
of flooding across the region during this time period.  Current QPF
forecasts suggest 2-3 inches of rainfall across the area...though
the OP GFS and Euro have slightly different placements on the QPF.
The timing for the heaviest rainfall would be Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues are likely to develop
across the region.  Those concerns are addressed in the Hydrology
section below.  Highs Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.  Highs Wednesday will likely peak early in the day
with falling temps through the remainder of the day.  Early day
highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look likely at this point.

As the synoptic front presses southward, modified Arctic air will
sink into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The
models have been signaling the potential for several waves of low
pressure moving northeastward along the front, which looks to bring
yet another wave of light to moderate precipitation into the
region.  With the Arctic air pushing in from the north, this may
result in significant wintry weather across the region.  This is not
an unprecedented setup for wintry weather.  Something similar to
this set up occurred back in March 1995 where we had 65+ degree
temps that quickly transitioned back into the upper 20s/lower 30s
with several inches of snow as the Arctic air slipped back into the
region.  This will be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region by Friday
as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.  Generally
stuck close to the multi-model consensus here for temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing.
Additional precipitation is expected across the region with totals
of up to a half inch.  This precipitation combined with the snowmelt
will saturate the ground and result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A secondary storm system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
Around two to as much as two and half inches of rainfall is expected
with this storm system.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current forecast QPF projections, flooding
on the major river stems would likely begin Wednesday and continue
for the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy QPF axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River main stem.  We will continue to watch these
storms closely over the weekend and will continue coordination with
the RFC.  Residents in flood prone areas should closely monitor
water levels in the coming days and prepare for possible flooding by
midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Plan on VFR conditions through 00z at all TAF sites but as a weather
system approaches from the west, look for lowering ceilings and
precipitation onset by 03z at SDF and at LEX after 06z. BWG is
expected to remain VFR and dry through at least 12z Sunday.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as light snow between
03-06z then transition to a period of sleet/freezing rain/snow mix
06-10z before going over to light freezing rain or rain depending on
surface temperatures through 12-13z. Plan on snow accumulation less
than 1/2 inch and ice accumulation of a few hundredths or less.
Meanwhile, ceilings will drop below fuel-alternate levels soon after
precipitation onset and into IFR after 06z, persisting through the
remainder of the TAF period. Visibilities are expected to be in the
3-4sm range though periods of 1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of a threat
for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm above
freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to the
north. Look for IFR ceilings to develop toward Sunday morning as
increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR conditions are
then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the weather system
passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain during the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083.

&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Hydrology......MJ
Aviation.......ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281655
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Forecast for the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon
largely on track. Subtle shortwave trough aloft combined with
increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces is resulting in
weak radar returns across the area this morning. 28.12z ILX/BNA
soundings were very dry below 750 mb but it`s possible flurries or
very light snow is making it to the ground. Extended this for the
remainder of the morning hours. Otherwise, rest of the forecast
looks good.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Light Snow or a Wintry Mix Possible Tonight...

The short term period will be characterized by southwesterly flow
aloft as a deep trough develops over California. At the surface this
morning sprawling high pressure sits just to the north of the
forecast area. This high pressure will shift eastward with a weak
trough developing across the region today into tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through this afternoon. Mid level clouds
are present across the region this morning and bases should lower
through the day. Highs today will range from the lower 40s near the
Tennessee border to near freezing across southern Indiana and
portions of north central KY.

This evening and tonight pose more of a challenge as a weak upper
level wave and isentropic lift result in increasing moisture and
precipitation. Precipitation looks to move into southern Indiana
from the west during the evening hours and spread across the IN
counties through the evening. The models remain in a bit of
disagreement with how far south the precipitation shield will
spread. The 0Z NAM is the farthest north and would keep the precip
across our northernmost counties for most of the night. Most of the
other models spread it further south and bring at least a slight
chance to the entire forecast area by morning.

The other question will be precipitation type. The NAM is the most
aggressive with bringing in a warm layer aloft, but as mentioned
before, the precipitation shield is much farther north. Leaned
slightly towards the cooler side of things. Thus, there could be a
brief chance for some freezing rain towards morning Sunday, but
looking at thermal profiles, it does not look too likely at this
point. If we do get any, accumulations would only be a few
hundredths of an inch or less. The best chance for accumulating snow
looks to be across our northernmost counties in southern IN. Think
1-2 inches of snow will be possible tonight across this region, so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Some light accumulations look
to reach as far south as the river, but they look to stay under an
inch.

Regardless of what happens tonight, temperatures on Sunday should
warm quickly under southerly flow. All areas should transition to
rain by mid morning with rain continuing through the day on Sunday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in the south to around 40 in the
north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

The long term period continues to look very active as two system
will bring precipitation to the region.

System 1: Sunday night through Monday Night

System number one will be in progress at the start of the forecast
period.  As an area of low pressure continues to move northeastward
and away from the area, a surface cold front will sag southward
through the region.  Rain showers will be the predominant
precipitation type early Sunday night across the region.  However,
colder air will work into the region from the northwest as the
precipitation shield moves eastward.  This will result in the rain
changing over to a wintry mix and then over to plain snow before
ending.  Initially thought that we`d have more of a freezing rain
threat as the atmospheric column dried out and we lost moisture in
the ICZ.  However, the latest runs have trended a little more moist
in the column which would support more of a snow/sleet mix going
over to snow before ending.  Precipitation still looks to move out
quicker than the cold air can get in, so the length of time of
wintry precipitation late Sunday night looks to be a short window.
Nonetheless, a dusting or minor accumulation may be possible.  Lows
Sunday night will cool into the mid-upper 20s in the north with
lower 30s in the south.

We still expect to see a modified Arctic airmass spill into the
region for Monday and into Monday night which will provide the area
with a brief reprieve in the weather.  This break in the weather
will be short lived as the next system will quickly move into the
region late Monday night.  Highs Monday will warm back into the
mid-upper 30s in the north with upper 30s to the lower 40s across
the south.  By late Monday night, the cold front to the south will
retreat northward as a warm front and result in precipitation moving
back into the region from the southwest.  Temperatures look to
bottom out in the upper 20s in the north with near freezing
temperatures down across the south just after midnight.
Temperatures look to rise in the later half of the night, which
should result in mostly rain across the south.  Further north,
perhaps from the Parkways northward, a wintry mix of rain and
freezing rain will be possible for a short period.  This may result
in some minor icing accumulations before temperatures rise above
freezing after sunrise Tuesday.

System 2: Tuesday - Friday

By Tuesday, high pressure will be located to our east and we should
be firmly in a return flow/southerly wind pattern.  A fairly potent
upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the western US and
result in lee-side cyclogenesis.  This low looks to track from the
Plains through the upper Midwest and into southern Great Lakes.  We
will be on the warm side of this weather system and will see our
temperatures spike up for a short period of time.  Aloft, a fairly
impressive 300 hPa jet streak will be in place aloft combined with
an increasing low-level jet near 850 hPa will support strong
moisture advection into the region.  Instability is somewhat in
question given the large amount of cloud cover.  CAPE values are
still fairly low (100-200 J/Kg), but in the cool season, the high
shear/low CAPE environments often produce severe weather.  The SLU
CIPS analogs have been suggesting the threat of severe weather over
the SE US for the last several days.  We still think that is very
possible with the highest threat a little south of here, but it
would not take much to advect some of the higher instability values
up this way.

Moderate to heavy rainfall out ahead of the synoptic front looks
likely.  That combined with embedded thunderstorms could pose a risk
of flooding across the region during this time period.  Current QPF
forecasts suggest 2-3 inches of rainfall across the area...though
the OP GFS and Euro have slightly different placements on the QPF.
The timing for the heaviest rainfall would be Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues are likely to develop
across the region.  Those concerns are addressed in the Hydrology
section below.  Highs Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.  Highs Wednesday will likely peak early in the day
with falling temps through the remainder of the day.  Early day
highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look likely at this point.

As the synoptic front presses southward, modified Arctic air will
sink into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The
models have been signaling the potential for several waves of low
pressure moving northeastward along the front, which looks to bring
yet another wave of light to moderate precipitation into the
region.  With the Arctic air pushing in from the north, this may
result in significant wintry weather across the region.  This is not
an unprecedented setup for wintry weather.  Something similar to
this set up occurred back in March 1995 where we had 65+ degree
temps that quickly transitioned back into the upper 20s/lower 30s
with several inches of snow as the Arctic air slipped back into the
region.  This will be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region by Friday
as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.  Generally
stuck close to the multi-model consensus here for temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing.
Additional precipitation is expected across the region with totals
of up to a half inch.  This precipitation combined with the snowmelt
will saturate the ground and result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A secondary storm system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
Around two to as much as two and half inches of rainfall is expected
with this storm system.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current forecast QPF projections, flooding
on the major river stems would likely begin Wednesday and continue
for the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy QPF axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River main stem.  We will continue to watch these
storms closely over the weekend and will continue coordination with
the RFC.  Residents in flood prone areas should closely monitor
water levels in the coming days and prepare for possible flooding by
midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Plan on VFR conditions through 00z at all TAF sites but as a weather
system approaches from the west, look for lowering ceilings and
precipitation onset by 03z at SDF and at LEX after 06z. BWG is
expected to remain VFR and dry through at least 12z Sunday.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as light snow between
03-06z then transition to a period of sleet/freezing rain/snow mix
06-10z before going over to light freezing rain or rain depending on
surface temperatures through 12-13z. Plan on snow accumulation less
than 1/2 inch and ice accumulation of a few hundredths or less.
Meanwhile, ceilings will drop below fuel-alternate levels soon after
precipitation onset and into IFR after 06z, persisting through the
remainder of the TAF period. Visibilities are expected to be in the
3-4sm range though periods of 1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of a threat
for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm above
freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to the
north. Look for IFR ceilings to develop toward Sunday morning as
increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR conditions are
then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the weather system
passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain during the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083.

&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Hydrology......MJ
Aviation.......ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281655
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Forecast for the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon
largely on track. Subtle shortwave trough aloft combined with
increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces is resulting in
weak radar returns across the area this morning. 28.12z ILX/BNA
soundings were very dry below 750 mb but it`s possible flurries or
very light snow is making it to the ground. Extended this for the
remainder of the morning hours. Otherwise, rest of the forecast
looks good.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Light Snow or a Wintry Mix Possible Tonight...

The short term period will be characterized by southwesterly flow
aloft as a deep trough develops over California. At the surface this
morning sprawling high pressure sits just to the north of the
forecast area. This high pressure will shift eastward with a weak
trough developing across the region today into tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through this afternoon. Mid level clouds
are present across the region this morning and bases should lower
through the day. Highs today will range from the lower 40s near the
Tennessee border to near freezing across southern Indiana and
portions of north central KY.

This evening and tonight pose more of a challenge as a weak upper
level wave and isentropic lift result in increasing moisture and
precipitation. Precipitation looks to move into southern Indiana
from the west during the evening hours and spread across the IN
counties through the evening. The models remain in a bit of
disagreement with how far south the precipitation shield will
spread. The 0Z NAM is the farthest north and would keep the precip
across our northernmost counties for most of the night. Most of the
other models spread it further south and bring at least a slight
chance to the entire forecast area by morning.

The other question will be precipitation type. The NAM is the most
aggressive with bringing in a warm layer aloft, but as mentioned
before, the precipitation shield is much farther north. Leaned
slightly towards the cooler side of things. Thus, there could be a
brief chance for some freezing rain towards morning Sunday, but
looking at thermal profiles, it does not look too likely at this
point. If we do get any, accumulations would only be a few
hundredths of an inch or less. The best chance for accumulating snow
looks to be across our northernmost counties in southern IN. Think
1-2 inches of snow will be possible tonight across this region, so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Some light accumulations look
to reach as far south as the river, but they look to stay under an
inch.

Regardless of what happens tonight, temperatures on Sunday should
warm quickly under southerly flow. All areas should transition to
rain by mid morning with rain continuing through the day on Sunday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in the south to around 40 in the
north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

The long term period continues to look very active as two system
will bring precipitation to the region.

System 1: Sunday night through Monday Night

System number one will be in progress at the start of the forecast
period.  As an area of low pressure continues to move northeastward
and away from the area, a surface cold front will sag southward
through the region.  Rain showers will be the predominant
precipitation type early Sunday night across the region.  However,
colder air will work into the region from the northwest as the
precipitation shield moves eastward.  This will result in the rain
changing over to a wintry mix and then over to plain snow before
ending.  Initially thought that we`d have more of a freezing rain
threat as the atmospheric column dried out and we lost moisture in
the ICZ.  However, the latest runs have trended a little more moist
in the column which would support more of a snow/sleet mix going
over to snow before ending.  Precipitation still looks to move out
quicker than the cold air can get in, so the length of time of
wintry precipitation late Sunday night looks to be a short window.
Nonetheless, a dusting or minor accumulation may be possible.  Lows
Sunday night will cool into the mid-upper 20s in the north with
lower 30s in the south.

We still expect to see a modified Arctic airmass spill into the
region for Monday and into Monday night which will provide the area
with a brief reprieve in the weather.  This break in the weather
will be short lived as the next system will quickly move into the
region late Monday night.  Highs Monday will warm back into the
mid-upper 30s in the north with upper 30s to the lower 40s across
the south.  By late Monday night, the cold front to the south will
retreat northward as a warm front and result in precipitation moving
back into the region from the southwest.  Temperatures look to
bottom out in the upper 20s in the north with near freezing
temperatures down across the south just after midnight.
Temperatures look to rise in the later half of the night, which
should result in mostly rain across the south.  Further north,
perhaps from the Parkways northward, a wintry mix of rain and
freezing rain will be possible for a short period.  This may result
in some minor icing accumulations before temperatures rise above
freezing after sunrise Tuesday.

System 2: Tuesday - Friday

By Tuesday, high pressure will be located to our east and we should
be firmly in a return flow/southerly wind pattern.  A fairly potent
upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the western US and
result in lee-side cyclogenesis.  This low looks to track from the
Plains through the upper Midwest and into southern Great Lakes.  We
will be on the warm side of this weather system and will see our
temperatures spike up for a short period of time.  Aloft, a fairly
impressive 300 hPa jet streak will be in place aloft combined with
an increasing low-level jet near 850 hPa will support strong
moisture advection into the region.  Instability is somewhat in
question given the large amount of cloud cover.  CAPE values are
still fairly low (100-200 J/Kg), but in the cool season, the high
shear/low CAPE environments often produce severe weather.  The SLU
CIPS analogs have been suggesting the threat of severe weather over
the SE US for the last several days.  We still think that is very
possible with the highest threat a little south of here, but it
would not take much to advect some of the higher instability values
up this way.

Moderate to heavy rainfall out ahead of the synoptic front looks
likely.  That combined with embedded thunderstorms could pose a risk
of flooding across the region during this time period.  Current QPF
forecasts suggest 2-3 inches of rainfall across the area...though
the OP GFS and Euro have slightly different placements on the QPF.
The timing for the heaviest rainfall would be Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues are likely to develop
across the region.  Those concerns are addressed in the Hydrology
section below.  Highs Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.  Highs Wednesday will likely peak early in the day
with falling temps through the remainder of the day.  Early day
highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look likely at this point.

As the synoptic front presses southward, modified Arctic air will
sink into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The
models have been signaling the potential for several waves of low
pressure moving northeastward along the front, which looks to bring
yet another wave of light to moderate precipitation into the
region.  With the Arctic air pushing in from the north, this may
result in significant wintry weather across the region.  This is not
an unprecedented setup for wintry weather.  Something similar to
this set up occurred back in March 1995 where we had 65+ degree
temps that quickly transitioned back into the upper 20s/lower 30s
with several inches of snow as the Arctic air slipped back into the
region.  This will be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region by Friday
as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.  Generally
stuck close to the multi-model consensus here for temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing.
Additional precipitation is expected across the region with totals
of up to a half inch.  This precipitation combined with the snowmelt
will saturate the ground and result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A secondary storm system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
Around two to as much as two and half inches of rainfall is expected
with this storm system.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current forecast QPF projections, flooding
on the major river stems would likely begin Wednesday and continue
for the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy QPF axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River main stem.  We will continue to watch these
storms closely over the weekend and will continue coordination with
the RFC.  Residents in flood prone areas should closely monitor
water levels in the coming days and prepare for possible flooding by
midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Plan on VFR conditions through 00z at all TAF sites but as a weather
system approaches from the west, look for lowering ceilings and
precipitation onset by 03z at SDF and at LEX after 06z. BWG is
expected to remain VFR and dry through at least 12z Sunday.

At SDF, precipitation is expected to start off as light snow between
03-06z then transition to a period of sleet/freezing rain/snow mix
06-10z before going over to light freezing rain or rain depending on
surface temperatures through 12-13z. Plan on snow accumulation less
than 1/2 inch and ice accumulation of a few hundredths or less.
Meanwhile, ceilings will drop below fuel-alternate levels soon after
precipitation onset and into IFR after 06z, persisting through the
remainder of the TAF period. Visibilities are expected to be in the
3-4sm range though periods of 1-2sm are possible.

At LEX, similar forecast thinking as SDF but with less of a threat
for wintry mix as surface temperatures are expected to warm above
freezing sooner and overall precipitation shield will be to the
north. Look for IFR ceilings to develop toward Sunday morning as
increasing moisture/saturation takes place. The IFR conditions are
then expected to persist for much of Sunday as the weather system
passes over the region bringing a high chance of rain during the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083.

&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Hydrology......MJ
Aviation.......ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281427
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
927 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Forecast for the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon
largely on track. Subtle shortwave trough aloft combined with
increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces is resulting in
weak radar returns across the area this morning. 28.12z ILX/BNA
soundings were very dry below 750 mb but it`s possible flurries or
very light snow are making it to the ground. Extended this for the
remainder of the morning hours. Otherwise, rest of the forecast
looks good.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Light Snow or a Wintry Mix Possible Tonight...

The short term period will be characterized by southwesterly flow
aloft as a deep trough develops over California. At the surface this
morning sprawling high pressure sits just to the north of the
forecast area. This high pressure will shift eastward with a weak
trough developing across the region today into tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through this afternoon. Mid level clouds
are present across the region this morning and bases should lower
through the day. Highs today will range from the lower 40s near the
Tennessee border to near freezing across southern Indiana and
portions of north central KY.

This evening and tonight pose more of a challenge as a weak upper
level wave and isentropic lift result in increasing moisture and
precipitation. Precipitation looks to move into southern Indiana
from the west during the evening hours and spread across the IN
counties through the evening. The models remain in a bit of
disagreement with how far south the precipitation shield will
spread. The 0Z NAM is the farthest north and would keep the precip
across our northernmost counties for most of the night. Most of the
other models spread it further south and bring at least a slight
chance to the entire forecast area by morning.

The other question will be precipitation type. The NAM is the most
aggressive with bringing in a warm layer aloft, but as mentioned
before, the precipitation shield is much farther north. Leaned
slightly towards the cooler side of things. Thus, there could be a
brief chance for some freezing rain towards morning Sunday, but
looking at thermal profiles, it does not look too likely at this
point. If we do get any, accumulations would only be a few
hundredths of an inch or less. The best chance for accumulating snow
looks to be across our northernmost counties in southern IN. Think
1-2 inches of snow will be possible tonight across this region, so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Some light accumulations look
to reach as far south as the river, but they look to stay under an
inch.

Regardless of what happens tonight, temperatures on Sunday should
warm quickly under southerly flow. All areas should transition to
rain by mid morning with rain continuing through the day on Sunday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in the south to around 40 in the
north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

The long term period continues to look very active as two system
will bring precipitation to the region.

System 1: Sunday night through Monday Night

System number one will be in progress at the start of the forecast
period.  As an area of low pressure continues to move northeastward
and away from the area, a surface cold front will sag southward
through the region.  Rain showers will be the predominant
precipitation type early Sunday night across the region.  However,
colder air will work into the region from the northwest as the
precipitation shield moves eastward.  This will result in the rain
changing over to a wintry mix and then over to plain snow before
ending.  Initially thought that we`d have more of a freezing rain
threat as the atmospheric column dried out and we lost moisture in
the ICZ.  However, the latest runs have trended a little more moist
in the column which would support more of a snow/sleet mix going
over to snow before ending.  Precipitation still looks to move out
quicker than the cold air can get in, so the length of time of
wintry precipitation late Sunday night looks to be a short window.
Nonetheless, a dusting or minor accumulation may be possible.  Lows
Sunday night will cool into the mid-upper 20s in the north with
lower 30s in the south.

We still expect to see a modified Arctic airmass spill into the
region for Monday and into Monday night which will provide the area
with a brief reprieve in the weather.  This break in the weather
will be short lived as the next system will quickly move into the
region late Monday night.  Highs Monday will warm back into the
mid-upper 30s in the north with upper 30s to the lower 40s across
the south.  By late Monday night, the cold front to the south will
retreat northward as a warm front and result in precipitation moving
back into the region from the southwest.  Temperatures look to
bottom out in the upper 20s in the north with near freezing
temperatures down across the south just after midnight.
Temperatures look to rise in the later half of the night, which
should result in mostly rain across the south.  Further north,
perhaps from the Parkways northward, a wintry mix of rain and
freezing rain will be possible for a short period.  This may result
in some minor icing accumulations before temperatures rise above
freezing after sunrise Tuesday.

System 2: Tuesday - Friday

By Tuesday, high pressure will be located to our east and we should
be firmly in a return flow/southerly wind pattern.  A fairly potent
upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the western US and
result in lee-side cyclogenesis.  This low looks to track from the
Plains through the upper Midwest and into southern Great Lakes.  We
will be on the warm side of this weather system and will see our
temperatures spike up for a short period of time.  Aloft, a fairly
impressive 300 hPa jet streak will be in place aloft combined with
an increasing low-level jet near 850 hPa will support strong
moisture advection into the region.  Instability is somewhat in
question given the large amount of cloud cover.  CAPE values are
still fairly low (100-200 J/Kg), but in the cool season, the high
shear/low CAPE environments often produce severe weather.  The SLU
CIPS analogs have been suggesting the threat of severe weather over
the SE US for the last several days.  We still think that is very
possible with the highest threat a little south of here, but it
would not take much to advect some of the higher instability values
up this way.

Moderate to heavy rainfall out ahead of the synoptic front looks
likely.  That combined with embedded thunderstorms could pose a risk
of flooding across the region during this time period.  Current QPF
forecasts suggest 2-3 inches of rainfall across the area...though
the OP GFS and Euro have slightly different placements on the QPF.
The timing for the heaviest rainfall would be Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues are likely to develop
across the region.  Those concerns are addressed in the Hydrology
section below.  Highs Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.  Highs Wednesday will likely peak early in the day
with falling temps through the remainder of the day.  Early day
highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look likely at this point.

As the synoptic front presses southward, modified Arctic air will
sink into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The
models have been signaling the potential for several waves of low
pressure moving northeastward along the front, which looks to bring
yet another wave of light to moderate precipitation into the
region.  With the Arctic air pushing in from the north, this may
result in significant wintry weather across the region.  This is not
an unprecedented setup for wintry weather.  Something similar to
this set up occurred back in March 1995 where we had 65+ degree
temps that quickly transitioned back into the upper 20s/lower 30s
with several inches of snow as the Arctic air slipped back into the
region.  This will be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region by Friday
as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.  Generally
stuck close to the multi-model consensus here for temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing.
Additional precipitation is expected across the region with totals
of up to a half inch.  This precipitation combined with the snowmelt
will saturate the ground and result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A secondary storm system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
Around two to as much as two and half inches of rainfall is expected
with this storm system.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current forecast QPF projections, flooding
on the major river stems would likely begin Wednesday and continue
for the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy QPF axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River main stem.  We will continue to watch these
storms closely over the weekend and will continue coordination with
the RFC.  Residents in flood prone areas should closely monitor
water levels in the coming days and prepare for possible flooding by
midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the
afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading
across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and
stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly
winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the
region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from
the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. LEX and
SDF look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down
through the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083.

&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Hydrology......MJ
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281427
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
927 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Forecast for the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon
largely on track. Subtle shortwave trough aloft combined with
increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces is resulting in
weak radar returns across the area this morning. 28.12z ILX/BNA
soundings were very dry below 750 mb but it`s possible flurries or
very light snow are making it to the ground. Extended this for the
remainder of the morning hours. Otherwise, rest of the forecast
looks good.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Light Snow or a Wintry Mix Possible Tonight...

The short term period will be characterized by southwesterly flow
aloft as a deep trough develops over California. At the surface this
morning sprawling high pressure sits just to the north of the
forecast area. This high pressure will shift eastward with a weak
trough developing across the region today into tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through this afternoon. Mid level clouds
are present across the region this morning and bases should lower
through the day. Highs today will range from the lower 40s near the
Tennessee border to near freezing across southern Indiana and
portions of north central KY.

This evening and tonight pose more of a challenge as a weak upper
level wave and isentropic lift result in increasing moisture and
precipitation. Precipitation looks to move into southern Indiana
from the west during the evening hours and spread across the IN
counties through the evening. The models remain in a bit of
disagreement with how far south the precipitation shield will
spread. The 0Z NAM is the farthest north and would keep the precip
across our northernmost counties for most of the night. Most of the
other models spread it further south and bring at least a slight
chance to the entire forecast area by morning.

The other question will be precipitation type. The NAM is the most
aggressive with bringing in a warm layer aloft, but as mentioned
before, the precipitation shield is much farther north. Leaned
slightly towards the cooler side of things. Thus, there could be a
brief chance for some freezing rain towards morning Sunday, but
looking at thermal profiles, it does not look too likely at this
point. If we do get any, accumulations would only be a few
hundredths of an inch or less. The best chance for accumulating snow
looks to be across our northernmost counties in southern IN. Think
1-2 inches of snow will be possible tonight across this region, so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Some light accumulations look
to reach as far south as the river, but they look to stay under an
inch.

Regardless of what happens tonight, temperatures on Sunday should
warm quickly under southerly flow. All areas should transition to
rain by mid morning with rain continuing through the day on Sunday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in the south to around 40 in the
north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

The long term period continues to look very active as two system
will bring precipitation to the region.

System 1: Sunday night through Monday Night

System number one will be in progress at the start of the forecast
period.  As an area of low pressure continues to move northeastward
and away from the area, a surface cold front will sag southward
through the region.  Rain showers will be the predominant
precipitation type early Sunday night across the region.  However,
colder air will work into the region from the northwest as the
precipitation shield moves eastward.  This will result in the rain
changing over to a wintry mix and then over to plain snow before
ending.  Initially thought that we`d have more of a freezing rain
threat as the atmospheric column dried out and we lost moisture in
the ICZ.  However, the latest runs have trended a little more moist
in the column which would support more of a snow/sleet mix going
over to snow before ending.  Precipitation still looks to move out
quicker than the cold air can get in, so the length of time of
wintry precipitation late Sunday night looks to be a short window.
Nonetheless, a dusting or minor accumulation may be possible.  Lows
Sunday night will cool into the mid-upper 20s in the north with
lower 30s in the south.

We still expect to see a modified Arctic airmass spill into the
region for Monday and into Monday night which will provide the area
with a brief reprieve in the weather.  This break in the weather
will be short lived as the next system will quickly move into the
region late Monday night.  Highs Monday will warm back into the
mid-upper 30s in the north with upper 30s to the lower 40s across
the south.  By late Monday night, the cold front to the south will
retreat northward as a warm front and result in precipitation moving
back into the region from the southwest.  Temperatures look to
bottom out in the upper 20s in the north with near freezing
temperatures down across the south just after midnight.
Temperatures look to rise in the later half of the night, which
should result in mostly rain across the south.  Further north,
perhaps from the Parkways northward, a wintry mix of rain and
freezing rain will be possible for a short period.  This may result
in some minor icing accumulations before temperatures rise above
freezing after sunrise Tuesday.

System 2: Tuesday - Friday

By Tuesday, high pressure will be located to our east and we should
be firmly in a return flow/southerly wind pattern.  A fairly potent
upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the western US and
result in lee-side cyclogenesis.  This low looks to track from the
Plains through the upper Midwest and into southern Great Lakes.  We
will be on the warm side of this weather system and will see our
temperatures spike up for a short period of time.  Aloft, a fairly
impressive 300 hPa jet streak will be in place aloft combined with
an increasing low-level jet near 850 hPa will support strong
moisture advection into the region.  Instability is somewhat in
question given the large amount of cloud cover.  CAPE values are
still fairly low (100-200 J/Kg), but in the cool season, the high
shear/low CAPE environments often produce severe weather.  The SLU
CIPS analogs have been suggesting the threat of severe weather over
the SE US for the last several days.  We still think that is very
possible with the highest threat a little south of here, but it
would not take much to advect some of the higher instability values
up this way.

Moderate to heavy rainfall out ahead of the synoptic front looks
likely.  That combined with embedded thunderstorms could pose a risk
of flooding across the region during this time period.  Current QPF
forecasts suggest 2-3 inches of rainfall across the area...though
the OP GFS and Euro have slightly different placements on the QPF.
The timing for the heaviest rainfall would be Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues are likely to develop
across the region.  Those concerns are addressed in the Hydrology
section below.  Highs Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.  Highs Wednesday will likely peak early in the day
with falling temps through the remainder of the day.  Early day
highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look likely at this point.

As the synoptic front presses southward, modified Arctic air will
sink into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The
models have been signaling the potential for several waves of low
pressure moving northeastward along the front, which looks to bring
yet another wave of light to moderate precipitation into the
region.  With the Arctic air pushing in from the north, this may
result in significant wintry weather across the region.  This is not
an unprecedented setup for wintry weather.  Something similar to
this set up occurred back in March 1995 where we had 65+ degree
temps that quickly transitioned back into the upper 20s/lower 30s
with several inches of snow as the Arctic air slipped back into the
region.  This will be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region by Friday
as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.  Generally
stuck close to the multi-model consensus here for temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing.
Additional precipitation is expected across the region with totals
of up to a half inch.  This precipitation combined with the snowmelt
will saturate the ground and result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A secondary storm system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
Around two to as much as two and half inches of rainfall is expected
with this storm system.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current forecast QPF projections, flooding
on the major river stems would likely begin Wednesday and continue
for the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy QPF axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River main stem.  We will continue to watch these
storms closely over the weekend and will continue coordination with
the RFC.  Residents in flood prone areas should closely monitor
water levels in the coming days and prepare for possible flooding by
midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the
afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading
across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and
stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly
winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the
region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from
the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. LEX and
SDF look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down
through the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083.

&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Hydrology......MJ
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281427
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
927 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Forecast for the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon
largely on track. Subtle shortwave trough aloft combined with
increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces is resulting in
weak radar returns across the area this morning. 28.12z ILX/BNA
soundings were very dry below 750 mb but it`s possible flurries or
very light snow are making it to the ground. Extended this for the
remainder of the morning hours. Otherwise, rest of the forecast
looks good.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Light Snow or a Wintry Mix Possible Tonight...

The short term period will be characterized by southwesterly flow
aloft as a deep trough develops over California. At the surface this
morning sprawling high pressure sits just to the north of the
forecast area. This high pressure will shift eastward with a weak
trough developing across the region today into tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through this afternoon. Mid level clouds
are present across the region this morning and bases should lower
through the day. Highs today will range from the lower 40s near the
Tennessee border to near freezing across southern Indiana and
portions of north central KY.

This evening and tonight pose more of a challenge as a weak upper
level wave and isentropic lift result in increasing moisture and
precipitation. Precipitation looks to move into southern Indiana
from the west during the evening hours and spread across the IN
counties through the evening. The models remain in a bit of
disagreement with how far south the precipitation shield will
spread. The 0Z NAM is the farthest north and would keep the precip
across our northernmost counties for most of the night. Most of the
other models spread it further south and bring at least a slight
chance to the entire forecast area by morning.

The other question will be precipitation type. The NAM is the most
aggressive with bringing in a warm layer aloft, but as mentioned
before, the precipitation shield is much farther north. Leaned
slightly towards the cooler side of things. Thus, there could be a
brief chance for some freezing rain towards morning Sunday, but
looking at thermal profiles, it does not look too likely at this
point. If we do get any, accumulations would only be a few
hundredths of an inch or less. The best chance for accumulating snow
looks to be across our northernmost counties in southern IN. Think
1-2 inches of snow will be possible tonight across this region, so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Some light accumulations look
to reach as far south as the river, but they look to stay under an
inch.

Regardless of what happens tonight, temperatures on Sunday should
warm quickly under southerly flow. All areas should transition to
rain by mid morning with rain continuing through the day on Sunday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in the south to around 40 in the
north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

The long term period continues to look very active as two system
will bring precipitation to the region.

System 1: Sunday night through Monday Night

System number one will be in progress at the start of the forecast
period.  As an area of low pressure continues to move northeastward
and away from the area, a surface cold front will sag southward
through the region.  Rain showers will be the predominant
precipitation type early Sunday night across the region.  However,
colder air will work into the region from the northwest as the
precipitation shield moves eastward.  This will result in the rain
changing over to a wintry mix and then over to plain snow before
ending.  Initially thought that we`d have more of a freezing rain
threat as the atmospheric column dried out and we lost moisture in
the ICZ.  However, the latest runs have trended a little more moist
in the column which would support more of a snow/sleet mix going
over to snow before ending.  Precipitation still looks to move out
quicker than the cold air can get in, so the length of time of
wintry precipitation late Sunday night looks to be a short window.
Nonetheless, a dusting or minor accumulation may be possible.  Lows
Sunday night will cool into the mid-upper 20s in the north with
lower 30s in the south.

We still expect to see a modified Arctic airmass spill into the
region for Monday and into Monday night which will provide the area
with a brief reprieve in the weather.  This break in the weather
will be short lived as the next system will quickly move into the
region late Monday night.  Highs Monday will warm back into the
mid-upper 30s in the north with upper 30s to the lower 40s across
the south.  By late Monday night, the cold front to the south will
retreat northward as a warm front and result in precipitation moving
back into the region from the southwest.  Temperatures look to
bottom out in the upper 20s in the north with near freezing
temperatures down across the south just after midnight.
Temperatures look to rise in the later half of the night, which
should result in mostly rain across the south.  Further north,
perhaps from the Parkways northward, a wintry mix of rain and
freezing rain will be possible for a short period.  This may result
in some minor icing accumulations before temperatures rise above
freezing after sunrise Tuesday.

System 2: Tuesday - Friday

By Tuesday, high pressure will be located to our east and we should
be firmly in a return flow/southerly wind pattern.  A fairly potent
upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the western US and
result in lee-side cyclogenesis.  This low looks to track from the
Plains through the upper Midwest and into southern Great Lakes.  We
will be on the warm side of this weather system and will see our
temperatures spike up for a short period of time.  Aloft, a fairly
impressive 300 hPa jet streak will be in place aloft combined with
an increasing low-level jet near 850 hPa will support strong
moisture advection into the region.  Instability is somewhat in
question given the large amount of cloud cover.  CAPE values are
still fairly low (100-200 J/Kg), but in the cool season, the high
shear/low CAPE environments often produce severe weather.  The SLU
CIPS analogs have been suggesting the threat of severe weather over
the SE US for the last several days.  We still think that is very
possible with the highest threat a little south of here, but it
would not take much to advect some of the higher instability values
up this way.

Moderate to heavy rainfall out ahead of the synoptic front looks
likely.  That combined with embedded thunderstorms could pose a risk
of flooding across the region during this time period.  Current QPF
forecasts suggest 2-3 inches of rainfall across the area...though
the OP GFS and Euro have slightly different placements on the QPF.
The timing for the heaviest rainfall would be Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues are likely to develop
across the region.  Those concerns are addressed in the Hydrology
section below.  Highs Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.  Highs Wednesday will likely peak early in the day
with falling temps through the remainder of the day.  Early day
highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look likely at this point.

As the synoptic front presses southward, modified Arctic air will
sink into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The
models have been signaling the potential for several waves of low
pressure moving northeastward along the front, which looks to bring
yet another wave of light to moderate precipitation into the
region.  With the Arctic air pushing in from the north, this may
result in significant wintry weather across the region.  This is not
an unprecedented setup for wintry weather.  Something similar to
this set up occurred back in March 1995 where we had 65+ degree
temps that quickly transitioned back into the upper 20s/lower 30s
with several inches of snow as the Arctic air slipped back into the
region.  This will be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region by Friday
as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.  Generally
stuck close to the multi-model consensus here for temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing.
Additional precipitation is expected across the region with totals
of up to a half inch.  This precipitation combined with the snowmelt
will saturate the ground and result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A secondary storm system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
Around two to as much as two and half inches of rainfall is expected
with this storm system.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current forecast QPF projections, flooding
on the major river stems would likely begin Wednesday and continue
for the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy QPF axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River main stem.  We will continue to watch these
storms closely over the weekend and will continue coordination with
the RFC.  Residents in flood prone areas should closely monitor
water levels in the coming days and prepare for possible flooding by
midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the
afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading
across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and
stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly
winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the
region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from
the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. LEX and
SDF look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down
through the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083.

&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Hydrology......MJ
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281427
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
927 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

Forecast for the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon
largely on track. Subtle shortwave trough aloft combined with
increasing isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces is resulting in
weak radar returns across the area this morning. 28.12z ILX/BNA
soundings were very dry below 750 mb but it`s possible flurries or
very light snow are making it to the ground. Extended this for the
remainder of the morning hours. Otherwise, rest of the forecast
looks good.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Light Snow or a Wintry Mix Possible Tonight...

The short term period will be characterized by southwesterly flow
aloft as a deep trough develops over California. At the surface this
morning sprawling high pressure sits just to the north of the
forecast area. This high pressure will shift eastward with a weak
trough developing across the region today into tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through this afternoon. Mid level clouds
are present across the region this morning and bases should lower
through the day. Highs today will range from the lower 40s near the
Tennessee border to near freezing across southern Indiana and
portions of north central KY.

This evening and tonight pose more of a challenge as a weak upper
level wave and isentropic lift result in increasing moisture and
precipitation. Precipitation looks to move into southern Indiana
from the west during the evening hours and spread across the IN
counties through the evening. The models remain in a bit of
disagreement with how far south the precipitation shield will
spread. The 0Z NAM is the farthest north and would keep the precip
across our northernmost counties for most of the night. Most of the
other models spread it further south and bring at least a slight
chance to the entire forecast area by morning.

The other question will be precipitation type. The NAM is the most
aggressive with bringing in a warm layer aloft, but as mentioned
before, the precipitation shield is much farther north. Leaned
slightly towards the cooler side of things. Thus, there could be a
brief chance for some freezing rain towards morning Sunday, but
looking at thermal profiles, it does not look too likely at this
point. If we do get any, accumulations would only be a few
hundredths of an inch or less. The best chance for accumulating snow
looks to be across our northernmost counties in southern IN. Think
1-2 inches of snow will be possible tonight across this region, so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Some light accumulations look
to reach as far south as the river, but they look to stay under an
inch.

Regardless of what happens tonight, temperatures on Sunday should
warm quickly under southerly flow. All areas should transition to
rain by mid morning with rain continuing through the day on Sunday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in the south to around 40 in the
north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

The long term period continues to look very active as two system
will bring precipitation to the region.

System 1: Sunday night through Monday Night

System number one will be in progress at the start of the forecast
period.  As an area of low pressure continues to move northeastward
and away from the area, a surface cold front will sag southward
through the region.  Rain showers will be the predominant
precipitation type early Sunday night across the region.  However,
colder air will work into the region from the northwest as the
precipitation shield moves eastward.  This will result in the rain
changing over to a wintry mix and then over to plain snow before
ending.  Initially thought that we`d have more of a freezing rain
threat as the atmospheric column dried out and we lost moisture in
the ICZ.  However, the latest runs have trended a little more moist
in the column which would support more of a snow/sleet mix going
over to snow before ending.  Precipitation still looks to move out
quicker than the cold air can get in, so the length of time of
wintry precipitation late Sunday night looks to be a short window.
Nonetheless, a dusting or minor accumulation may be possible.  Lows
Sunday night will cool into the mid-upper 20s in the north with
lower 30s in the south.

We still expect to see a modified Arctic airmass spill into the
region for Monday and into Monday night which will provide the area
with a brief reprieve in the weather.  This break in the weather
will be short lived as the next system will quickly move into the
region late Monday night.  Highs Monday will warm back into the
mid-upper 30s in the north with upper 30s to the lower 40s across
the south.  By late Monday night, the cold front to the south will
retreat northward as a warm front and result in precipitation moving
back into the region from the southwest.  Temperatures look to
bottom out in the upper 20s in the north with near freezing
temperatures down across the south just after midnight.
Temperatures look to rise in the later half of the night, which
should result in mostly rain across the south.  Further north,
perhaps from the Parkways northward, a wintry mix of rain and
freezing rain will be possible for a short period.  This may result
in some minor icing accumulations before temperatures rise above
freezing after sunrise Tuesday.

System 2: Tuesday - Friday

By Tuesday, high pressure will be located to our east and we should
be firmly in a return flow/southerly wind pattern.  A fairly potent
upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the western US and
result in lee-side cyclogenesis.  This low looks to track from the
Plains through the upper Midwest and into southern Great Lakes.  We
will be on the warm side of this weather system and will see our
temperatures spike up for a short period of time.  Aloft, a fairly
impressive 300 hPa jet streak will be in place aloft combined with
an increasing low-level jet near 850 hPa will support strong
moisture advection into the region.  Instability is somewhat in
question given the large amount of cloud cover.  CAPE values are
still fairly low (100-200 J/Kg), but in the cool season, the high
shear/low CAPE environments often produce severe weather.  The SLU
CIPS analogs have been suggesting the threat of severe weather over
the SE US for the last several days.  We still think that is very
possible with the highest threat a little south of here, but it
would not take much to advect some of the higher instability values
up this way.

Moderate to heavy rainfall out ahead of the synoptic front looks
likely.  That combined with embedded thunderstorms could pose a risk
of flooding across the region during this time period.  Current QPF
forecasts suggest 2-3 inches of rainfall across the area...though
the OP GFS and Euro have slightly different placements on the QPF.
The timing for the heaviest rainfall would be Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues are likely to develop
across the region.  Those concerns are addressed in the Hydrology
section below.  Highs Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.  Highs Wednesday will likely peak early in the day
with falling temps through the remainder of the day.  Early day
highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look likely at this point.

As the synoptic front presses southward, modified Arctic air will
sink into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The
models have been signaling the potential for several waves of low
pressure moving northeastward along the front, which looks to bring
yet another wave of light to moderate precipitation into the
region.  With the Arctic air pushing in from the north, this may
result in significant wintry weather across the region.  This is not
an unprecedented setup for wintry weather.  Something similar to
this set up occurred back in March 1995 where we had 65+ degree
temps that quickly transitioned back into the upper 20s/lower 30s
with several inches of snow as the Arctic air slipped back into the
region.  This will be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region by Friday
as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.  Generally
stuck close to the multi-model consensus here for temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing.
Additional precipitation is expected across the region with totals
of up to a half inch.  This precipitation combined with the snowmelt
will saturate the ground and result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A secondary storm system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
Around two to as much as two and half inches of rainfall is expected
with this storm system.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current forecast QPF projections, flooding
on the major river stems would likely begin Wednesday and continue
for the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy QPF axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River main stem.  We will continue to watch these
storms closely over the weekend and will continue coordination with
the RFC.  Residents in flood prone areas should closely monitor
water levels in the coming days and prepare for possible flooding by
midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the
afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading
across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and
stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly
winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the
region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from
the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. LEX and
SDF look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down
through the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083.

&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Hydrology......MJ
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281101
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
601 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Light Snow or a Wintry Mix Possible Tonight...

The short term period will be characterized by southwesterly flow
aloft as a deep trough develops over California. At the surface this
morning sprawling high pressure sits just to the north of the
forecast area. This high pressure will shift eastward with a weak
trough developing across the region today into tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through this afternoon. Mid level clouds
are present across the region this morning and bases should lower
through the day. Highs today will range from the lower 40s near the
Tennessee border to near freezing across southern Indiana and
portions of north central KY.

This evening and tonight pose more of a challenge as a weak upper
level wave and isentropic lift result in increasing moisture and
precipitation. Precipitation looks to move into southern Indiana
from the west during the evening hours and spread across the IN
counties through the evening. The models remain in a bit of
disagreement with how far south the precipitation shield will
spread. The 0Z NAM is the farthest north and would keep the precip
across our northernmost counties for most of the night. Most of the
other models spread it further south and bring at least a slight
chance to the entire forecast area by morning.

The other question will be precipitation type. The NAM is the most
aggressive with bringing in a warm layer aloft, but as mentioned
before, the precipitation shield is much farther north. Leaned
slightly towards the cooler side of things. Thus, there could be a
brief chance for some freezing rain towards morning Sunday, but
looking at thermal profiles, it does not look too likely at this
point. If we do get any, accumulations would only be a few
hundredths of an inch or less. The best chance for accumulating snow
looks to be across our northernmost counties in southern IN. Think
1-2 inches of snow will be possible tonight across this region, so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Some light accumulations look
to reach as far south as the river, but they look to stay under an
inch.

Regardless of what happens tonight, temperatures on Sunday should
warm quickly under southerly flow. All areas should transition to
rain by mid morning with rain continuing through the day on Sunday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in the south to around 40 in the
north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

The long term period continues to look very active as two system
will bring precipitation to the region.

System 1: Sunday night through Monday Night

System number one will be in progress at the start of the forecast
period.  As an area of low pressure continues to move northeastward
and away from the area, a surface cold front will sag southward
through the region.  Rain showers will be the predominant
precipitation type early Sunday night across the region.  However,
colder air will work into the region from the northwest as the
precipitation shield moves eastward.  This will result in the rain
changing over to a wintry mix and then over to plain snow before
ending.  Initially thought that we`d have more of a freezing rain
threat as the atmospheric column dried out and we lost moisture in
the ICZ.  However, the latest runs have trended a little more moist
in the column which would support more of a snow/sleet mix going
over to snow before ending.  Precipitation still looks to move out
quicker than the cold air can get in, so the length of time of
wintry precipitation late Sunday night looks to be a short window.
Nonetheless, a dusting or minor accumulation may be possible.  Lows
Sunday night will cool into the mid-upper 20s in the north with
lower 30s in the south.

We still expect to see a modified Arctic airmass spill into the
region for Monday and into Monday night which will provide the area
with a brief reprieve in the weather.  This break in the weather
will be short lived as the next system will quickly move into the
region late Monday night.  Highs Monday will warm back into the
mid-upper 30s in the north with upper 30s to the lower 40s across
the south.  By late Monday night, the cold front to the south will
retreat northward as a warm front and result in precipitation moving
back into the region from the southwest.  Temperatures look to
bottom out in the upper 20s in the north with near freezing
temperatures down across the south just after midnight.
Temperatures look to rise in the later half of the night, which
should result in mostly rain across the south.  Further north,
perhaps from the Parkways northward, a wintry mix of rain and
freezing rain will be possible for a short period.  This may result
in some minor icing accumulations before temperatures rise above
freezing after sunrise Tuesday.

System 2: Tuesday - Friday

By Tuesday, high pressure will be located to our east and we should
be firmly in a return flow/southerly wind pattern.  A fairly potent
upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the western US and
result in lee-side cyclogenesis.  This low looks to track from the
Plains through the upper Midwest and into southern Great Lakes.  We
will be on the warm side of this weather system and will see our
temperatures spike up for a short period of time.  Aloft, a fairly
impressive 300 hPa jet streak will be in place aloft combined with
an increasing low-level jet near 850 hPa will support strong
moisture advection into the region.  Instability is somewhat in
question given the large amount of cloud cover.  CAPE values are
still fairly low (100-200 J/Kg), but in the cool season, the high
shear/low CAPE environments often produce severe weather.  The SLU
CIPS analogs have been suggesting the threat of severe weather over
the SE US for the last several days.  We still think that is very
possible with the highest threat a little south of here, but it
would not take much to advect some of the higher instability values
up this way.

Moderate to heavy rainfall out ahead of the synoptic front looks
likely.  That combined with embedded thunderstorms could pose a risk
of flooding across the region during this time period.  Current QPF
forecasts suggest 2-3 inches of rainfall across the area...though
the OP GFS and Euro have slightly different placements on the QPF.
The timing for the heaviest rainfall would be Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues are likely to develop
across the region.  Those concerns are addressed in the Hydrology
section below.  Highs Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.  Highs Wednesday will likely peak early in the day
with falling temps through the remainder of the day.  Early day
highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look likely at this point.

As the synoptic front presses southward, modified Arctic air will
sink into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The
models have been signaling the potential for several waves of low
pressure moving northeastward along the front, which looks to bring
yet another wave of light to moderate precipitation into the
region.  With the Arctic air pushing in from the north, this may
result in significant wintry weather across the region.  This is not
an unprecedented setup for wintry weather.  Something similar to
this set up occurred back in March 1995 where we had 65+ degree
temps that quickly transitioned back into the upper 20s/lower 30s
with several inches of snow as the Arctic air slipped back into the
region.  This will be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region by Friday
as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.  Generally
stuck close to the multi-model consensus here for temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing.
Additional precipitation is expected across the region with totals
of up to a half inch.  This precipitation combined with the snowmelt
will saturate the ground and result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A secondary storm system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
Around two to as much as two and half inches of rainfall is expected
with this storm system.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current forecast QPF projections, flooding
on the major river stems would likely begin Wednesday and continue
for the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy QPF axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River main stem.  We will continue to watch these
storms closely over the weekend and will continue coordination with
the RFC.  Residents in flood prone areas should closely monitor
water levels in the coming days and prepare for possible flooding by
midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the
afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading
across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and
stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly
winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the
region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from
the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. LEX and
SDF look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down
through the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083.

&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Hydrology.........MJ
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281101
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
601 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Light Snow or a Wintry Mix Possible Tonight...

The short term period will be characterized by southwesterly flow
aloft as a deep trough develops over California. At the surface this
morning sprawling high pressure sits just to the north of the
forecast area. This high pressure will shift eastward with a weak
trough developing across the region today into tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through this afternoon. Mid level clouds
are present across the region this morning and bases should lower
through the day. Highs today will range from the lower 40s near the
Tennessee border to near freezing across southern Indiana and
portions of north central KY.

This evening and tonight pose more of a challenge as a weak upper
level wave and isentropic lift result in increasing moisture and
precipitation. Precipitation looks to move into southern Indiana
from the west during the evening hours and spread across the IN
counties through the evening. The models remain in a bit of
disagreement with how far south the precipitation shield will
spread. The 0Z NAM is the farthest north and would keep the precip
across our northernmost counties for most of the night. Most of the
other models spread it further south and bring at least a slight
chance to the entire forecast area by morning.

The other question will be precipitation type. The NAM is the most
aggressive with bringing in a warm layer aloft, but as mentioned
before, the precipitation shield is much farther north. Leaned
slightly towards the cooler side of things. Thus, there could be a
brief chance for some freezing rain towards morning Sunday, but
looking at thermal profiles, it does not look too likely at this
point. If we do get any, accumulations would only be a few
hundredths of an inch or less. The best chance for accumulating snow
looks to be across our northernmost counties in southern IN. Think
1-2 inches of snow will be possible tonight across this region, so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Some light accumulations look
to reach as far south as the river, but they look to stay under an
inch.

Regardless of what happens tonight, temperatures on Sunday should
warm quickly under southerly flow. All areas should transition to
rain by mid morning with rain continuing through the day on Sunday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in the south to around 40 in the
north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

The long term period continues to look very active as two system
will bring precipitation to the region.

System 1: Sunday night through Monday Night

System number one will be in progress at the start of the forecast
period.  As an area of low pressure continues to move northeastward
and away from the area, a surface cold front will sag southward
through the region.  Rain showers will be the predominant
precipitation type early Sunday night across the region.  However,
colder air will work into the region from the northwest as the
precipitation shield moves eastward.  This will result in the rain
changing over to a wintry mix and then over to plain snow before
ending.  Initially thought that we`d have more of a freezing rain
threat as the atmospheric column dried out and we lost moisture in
the ICZ.  However, the latest runs have trended a little more moist
in the column which would support more of a snow/sleet mix going
over to snow before ending.  Precipitation still looks to move out
quicker than the cold air can get in, so the length of time of
wintry precipitation late Sunday night looks to be a short window.
Nonetheless, a dusting or minor accumulation may be possible.  Lows
Sunday night will cool into the mid-upper 20s in the north with
lower 30s in the south.

We still expect to see a modified Arctic airmass spill into the
region for Monday and into Monday night which will provide the area
with a brief reprieve in the weather.  This break in the weather
will be short lived as the next system will quickly move into the
region late Monday night.  Highs Monday will warm back into the
mid-upper 30s in the north with upper 30s to the lower 40s across
the south.  By late Monday night, the cold front to the south will
retreat northward as a warm front and result in precipitation moving
back into the region from the southwest.  Temperatures look to
bottom out in the upper 20s in the north with near freezing
temperatures down across the south just after midnight.
Temperatures look to rise in the later half of the night, which
should result in mostly rain across the south.  Further north,
perhaps from the Parkways northward, a wintry mix of rain and
freezing rain will be possible for a short period.  This may result
in some minor icing accumulations before temperatures rise above
freezing after sunrise Tuesday.

System 2: Tuesday - Friday

By Tuesday, high pressure will be located to our east and we should
be firmly in a return flow/southerly wind pattern.  A fairly potent
upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the western US and
result in lee-side cyclogenesis.  This low looks to track from the
Plains through the upper Midwest and into southern Great Lakes.  We
will be on the warm side of this weather system and will see our
temperatures spike up for a short period of time.  Aloft, a fairly
impressive 300 hPa jet streak will be in place aloft combined with
an increasing low-level jet near 850 hPa will support strong
moisture advection into the region.  Instability is somewhat in
question given the large amount of cloud cover.  CAPE values are
still fairly low (100-200 J/Kg), but in the cool season, the high
shear/low CAPE environments often produce severe weather.  The SLU
CIPS analogs have been suggesting the threat of severe weather over
the SE US for the last several days.  We still think that is very
possible with the highest threat a little south of here, but it
would not take much to advect some of the higher instability values
up this way.

Moderate to heavy rainfall out ahead of the synoptic front looks
likely.  That combined with embedded thunderstorms could pose a risk
of flooding across the region during this time period.  Current QPF
forecasts suggest 2-3 inches of rainfall across the area...though
the OP GFS and Euro have slightly different placements on the QPF.
The timing for the heaviest rainfall would be Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues are likely to develop
across the region.  Those concerns are addressed in the Hydrology
section below.  Highs Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.  Highs Wednesday will likely peak early in the day
with falling temps through the remainder of the day.  Early day
highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look likely at this point.

As the synoptic front presses southward, modified Arctic air will
sink into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The
models have been signaling the potential for several waves of low
pressure moving northeastward along the front, which looks to bring
yet another wave of light to moderate precipitation into the
region.  With the Arctic air pushing in from the north, this may
result in significant wintry weather across the region.  This is not
an unprecedented setup for wintry weather.  Something similar to
this set up occurred back in March 1995 where we had 65+ degree
temps that quickly transitioned back into the upper 20s/lower 30s
with several inches of snow as the Arctic air slipped back into the
region.  This will be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region by Friday
as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.  Generally
stuck close to the multi-model consensus here for temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing.
Additional precipitation is expected across the region with totals
of up to a half inch.  This precipitation combined with the snowmelt
will saturate the ground and result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A secondary storm system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
Around two to as much as two and half inches of rainfall is expected
with this storm system.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current forecast QPF projections, flooding
on the major river stems would likely begin Wednesday and continue
for the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy QPF axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River main stem.  We will continue to watch these
storms closely over the weekend and will continue coordination with
the RFC.  Residents in flood prone areas should closely monitor
water levels in the coming days and prepare for possible flooding by
midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the
afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading
across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and
stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly
winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the
region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from
the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. LEX and
SDF look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down
through the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083.

&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Hydrology.........MJ
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281101
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
601 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Light Snow or a Wintry Mix Possible Tonight...

The short term period will be characterized by southwesterly flow
aloft as a deep trough develops over California. At the surface this
morning sprawling high pressure sits just to the north of the
forecast area. This high pressure will shift eastward with a weak
trough developing across the region today into tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through this afternoon. Mid level clouds
are present across the region this morning and bases should lower
through the day. Highs today will range from the lower 40s near the
Tennessee border to near freezing across southern Indiana and
portions of north central KY.

This evening and tonight pose more of a challenge as a weak upper
level wave and isentropic lift result in increasing moisture and
precipitation. Precipitation looks to move into southern Indiana
from the west during the evening hours and spread across the IN
counties through the evening. The models remain in a bit of
disagreement with how far south the precipitation shield will
spread. The 0Z NAM is the farthest north and would keep the precip
across our northernmost counties for most of the night. Most of the
other models spread it further south and bring at least a slight
chance to the entire forecast area by morning.

The other question will be precipitation type. The NAM is the most
aggressive with bringing in a warm layer aloft, but as mentioned
before, the precipitation shield is much farther north. Leaned
slightly towards the cooler side of things. Thus, there could be a
brief chance for some freezing rain towards morning Sunday, but
looking at thermal profiles, it does not look too likely at this
point. If we do get any, accumulations would only be a few
hundredths of an inch or less. The best chance for accumulating snow
looks to be across our northernmost counties in southern IN. Think
1-2 inches of snow will be possible tonight across this region, so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Some light accumulations look
to reach as far south as the river, but they look to stay under an
inch.

Regardless of what happens tonight, temperatures on Sunday should
warm quickly under southerly flow. All areas should transition to
rain by mid morning with rain continuing through the day on Sunday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in the south to around 40 in the
north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

The long term period continues to look very active as two system
will bring precipitation to the region.

System 1: Sunday night through Monday Night

System number one will be in progress at the start of the forecast
period.  As an area of low pressure continues to move northeastward
and away from the area, a surface cold front will sag southward
through the region.  Rain showers will be the predominant
precipitation type early Sunday night across the region.  However,
colder air will work into the region from the northwest as the
precipitation shield moves eastward.  This will result in the rain
changing over to a wintry mix and then over to plain snow before
ending.  Initially thought that we`d have more of a freezing rain
threat as the atmospheric column dried out and we lost moisture in
the ICZ.  However, the latest runs have trended a little more moist
in the column which would support more of a snow/sleet mix going
over to snow before ending.  Precipitation still looks to move out
quicker than the cold air can get in, so the length of time of
wintry precipitation late Sunday night looks to be a short window.
Nonetheless, a dusting or minor accumulation may be possible.  Lows
Sunday night will cool into the mid-upper 20s in the north with
lower 30s in the south.

We still expect to see a modified Arctic airmass spill into the
region for Monday and into Monday night which will provide the area
with a brief reprieve in the weather.  This break in the weather
will be short lived as the next system will quickly move into the
region late Monday night.  Highs Monday will warm back into the
mid-upper 30s in the north with upper 30s to the lower 40s across
the south.  By late Monday night, the cold front to the south will
retreat northward as a warm front and result in precipitation moving
back into the region from the southwest.  Temperatures look to
bottom out in the upper 20s in the north with near freezing
temperatures down across the south just after midnight.
Temperatures look to rise in the later half of the night, which
should result in mostly rain across the south.  Further north,
perhaps from the Parkways northward, a wintry mix of rain and
freezing rain will be possible for a short period.  This may result
in some minor icing accumulations before temperatures rise above
freezing after sunrise Tuesday.

System 2: Tuesday - Friday

By Tuesday, high pressure will be located to our east and we should
be firmly in a return flow/southerly wind pattern.  A fairly potent
upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the western US and
result in lee-side cyclogenesis.  This low looks to track from the
Plains through the upper Midwest and into southern Great Lakes.  We
will be on the warm side of this weather system and will see our
temperatures spike up for a short period of time.  Aloft, a fairly
impressive 300 hPa jet streak will be in place aloft combined with
an increasing low-level jet near 850 hPa will support strong
moisture advection into the region.  Instability is somewhat in
question given the large amount of cloud cover.  CAPE values are
still fairly low (100-200 J/Kg), but in the cool season, the high
shear/low CAPE environments often produce severe weather.  The SLU
CIPS analogs have been suggesting the threat of severe weather over
the SE US for the last several days.  We still think that is very
possible with the highest threat a little south of here, but it
would not take much to advect some of the higher instability values
up this way.

Moderate to heavy rainfall out ahead of the synoptic front looks
likely.  That combined with embedded thunderstorms could pose a risk
of flooding across the region during this time period.  Current QPF
forecasts suggest 2-3 inches of rainfall across the area...though
the OP GFS and Euro have slightly different placements on the QPF.
The timing for the heaviest rainfall would be Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues are likely to develop
across the region.  Those concerns are addressed in the Hydrology
section below.  Highs Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.  Highs Wednesday will likely peak early in the day
with falling temps through the remainder of the day.  Early day
highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look likely at this point.

As the synoptic front presses southward, modified Arctic air will
sink into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The
models have been signaling the potential for several waves of low
pressure moving northeastward along the front, which looks to bring
yet another wave of light to moderate precipitation into the
region.  With the Arctic air pushing in from the north, this may
result in significant wintry weather across the region.  This is not
an unprecedented setup for wintry weather.  Something similar to
this set up occurred back in March 1995 where we had 65+ degree
temps that quickly transitioned back into the upper 20s/lower 30s
with several inches of snow as the Arctic air slipped back into the
region.  This will be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region by Friday
as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.  Generally
stuck close to the multi-model consensus here for temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing.
Additional precipitation is expected across the region with totals
of up to a half inch.  This precipitation combined with the snowmelt
will saturate the ground and result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A secondary storm system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
Around two to as much as two and half inches of rainfall is expected
with this storm system.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current forecast QPF projections, flooding
on the major river stems would likely begin Wednesday and continue
for the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy QPF axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River main stem.  We will continue to watch these
storms closely over the weekend and will continue coordination with
the RFC.  Residents in flood prone areas should closely monitor
water levels in the coming days and prepare for possible flooding by
midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the
afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading
across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and
stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly
winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the
region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from
the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. LEX and
SDF look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down
through the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083.

&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Hydrology.........MJ
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280844
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
344 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Light Snow or a Wintry Mix Possible Tonight...

The short term period will be characterized by southwesterly flow
aloft as a deep trough develops over California. At the surface this
morning sprawling high pressure sits just to the north of the
forecast area. This high pressure will shift eastward with a weak
trough developing across the region today into tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through this afternoon. Mid level clouds
are present across the region this morning and bases should lower
through the day. Highs today will range from the lower 40s near the
Tennessee border to near freezing across southern Indiana and
portions of north central KY.

This evening and tonight pose more of a challenge as a weak upper
level wave and isentropic lift result in increasing moisture and
precipitation. Precipitation looks to move into southern Indiana
from the west during the evening hours and spread across the IN
counties through the evening. The models remain in a bit of
disagreement with how far south the precipitation shield will
spread. The 0Z NAM is the farthest north and would keep the precip
across our northernmost counties for most of the night. Most of the
other models spread it further south and bring at least a slight
chance to the entire forecast area by morning.

The other question will be precipitation type. The NAM is the most
aggressive with bringing in a warm layer aloft, but as mentioned
before, the precipitation shield is much farther north. Leaned
slightly towards the cooler side of things. Thus, there could be a
brief chance for some freezing rain towards morning Sunday, but
looking at thermal profiles, it does not look too likely at this
point. If we do get any, accumulations would only be a few
hundredths of an inch or less. The best chance for accumulating snow
looks to be across our northernmost counties in southern IN. Think
1-2 inches of snow will be possible tonight across this region, so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Some light accumulations look
to reach as far south as the river, but they look to stay under an
inch.

Regardless of what happens tonight, temperatures on Sunday should
warm quickly under southerly flow. All areas should transition to
rain by mid morning with rain continuing through the day on Sunday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in the south to around 40 in the
north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

The long term period continues to look very active as two system
will bring precipitation to the region.

System 1: Sunday night through Monday Night

System number one will be in progress at the start of the forecast
period.  As an area of low pressure continues to move northeastward
and away from the area, a surface cold front will sag southward
through the region.  Rain showers will be the predominant
precipitation type early Sunday night across the region.  However,
colder air will work into the region from the northwest as the
precipitation shield moves eastward.  This will result in the rain
changing over to a wintry mix and then over to plain snow before
ending.  Initially thought that we`d have more of a freezing rain
threat as the atmospheric column dried out and we lost moisture in
the ICZ.  However, the latest runs have trended a little more moist
in the column which would support more of a snow/sleet mix going
over to snow before ending.  Precipitation still looks to move out
quicker than the cold air can get in, so the length of time of
wintry precipitation late Sunday night looks to be a short window.
Nonetheless, a dusting or minor accumulation may be possible.  Lows
Sunday night will cool into the mid-upper 20s in the north with
lower 30s in the south.

We still expect to see a modified Arctic airmass spill into the
region for Monday and into Monday night which will provide the area
with a brief reprieve in the weather.  This break in the weather
will be short lived as the next system will quickly move into the
region late Monday night.  Highs Monday will warm back into the
mid-upper 30s in the north with upper 30s to the lower 40s across
the south.  By late Monday night, the cold front to the south will
retreat northward as a warm front and result in precipitation moving
back into the region from the southwest.  Temperatures look to
bottom out in the upper 20s in the north with near freezing
temperatures down across the south just after midnight.
Temperatures look to rise in the later half of the night, which
should result in mostly rain across the south.  Further north,
perhaps from the Parkways northward, a wintry mix of rain and
freezing rain will be possible for a short period.  This may result
in some minor icing accumulations before temperatures rise above
freezing after sunrise Tuesday.

System 2: Tuesday - Friday

By Tuesday, high pressure will be located to our east and we should
be firmly in a return flow/southerly wind pattern.  A fairly potent
upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the western US and
result in lee-side cyclogenesis.  This low looks to track from the
Plains through the upper Midwest and into southern Great Lakes.  We
will be on the warm side of this weather system and will see our
temperatures spike up for a short period of time.  Aloft, a fairly
impressive 300 hPa jet streak will be in place aloft combined with
an increasing low-level jet near 850 hPa will support strong
moisture advection into the region.  Instability is somewhat in
question given the large amount of cloud cover.  CAPE values are
still fairly low (100-200 J/Kg), but in the cool season, the high
shear/low CAPE environments often produce severe weather.  The SLU
CIPS analogs have been suggesting the threat of severe weather over
the SE US for the last several days.  We still think that is very
possible with the highest threat a little south of here, but it
would not take much to advect some of the higher instability values
up this way.

Moderate to heavy rainfall out ahead of the synoptic front looks
likely.  That combined with embedded thunderstorms could pose a risk
of flooding across the region during this time period.  Current QPF
forecasts suggest 2-3 inches of rainfall across the area...though
the OP GFS and Euro have slightly different placements on the QPF.
The timing for the heaviest rainfall would be Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues are likely to develop
across the region.  Those concerns are addressed in the Hydrology
section below.  Highs Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.  Highs Wednesday will likely peak early in the day
with falling temps through the remainder of the day.  Early day
highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look likely at this point.

As the synoptic front presses southward, modified Arctic air will
sink into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The
models have been signaling the potential for several waves of low
pressure moving northeastward along the front, which looks to bring
yet another wave of light to moderate precipitation into the
region.  With the Arctic air pushing in from the north, this may
result in significant wintry weather across the region.  This is not
an unprecedented setup for wintry weather.  Something similar to
this set up occurred back in March 1995 where we had 65+ degree
temps that quickly transitioned back into the upper 20s/lower 30s
with several inches of snow as the Arctic air slipped back into the
region.  This will be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region by Friday
as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.  Generally
stuck close to the multi-model consensus here for temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing.
Additional precipitation is expected across the region with totals
of up to a half inch.  This precipitation combined with the snowmelt
will saturate the ground and result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A secondary storm system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
Around two to as much as two and half inches of rainfall is expected
with this storm system.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current forecast QPF projections, flooding
on the major river stems would likely begin Wednesday and continue
for the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy QPF axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River main stem.  We will continue to watch these
storms closely over the weekend and will continue coordination with
the RFC.  Residents in flood prone areas should closely monitor
water levels in the coming days and prepare for possible flooding by
midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the
afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading
across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and
stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly
winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the
region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from
the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. LEX and
SDF look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down
through the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083.

&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Hydrology.........MJ
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280844
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
344 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Light Snow or a Wintry Mix Possible Tonight...

The short term period will be characterized by southwesterly flow
aloft as a deep trough develops over California. At the surface this
morning sprawling high pressure sits just to the north of the
forecast area. This high pressure will shift eastward with a weak
trough developing across the region today into tonight.

Quiet weather is expected through this afternoon. Mid level clouds
are present across the region this morning and bases should lower
through the day. Highs today will range from the lower 40s near the
Tennessee border to near freezing across southern Indiana and
portions of north central KY.

This evening and tonight pose more of a challenge as a weak upper
level wave and isentropic lift result in increasing moisture and
precipitation. Precipitation looks to move into southern Indiana
from the west during the evening hours and spread across the IN
counties through the evening. The models remain in a bit of
disagreement with how far south the precipitation shield will
spread. The 0Z NAM is the farthest north and would keep the precip
across our northernmost counties for most of the night. Most of the
other models spread it further south and bring at least a slight
chance to the entire forecast area by morning.

The other question will be precipitation type. The NAM is the most
aggressive with bringing in a warm layer aloft, but as mentioned
before, the precipitation shield is much farther north. Leaned
slightly towards the cooler side of things. Thus, there could be a
brief chance for some freezing rain towards morning Sunday, but
looking at thermal profiles, it does not look too likely at this
point. If we do get any, accumulations would only be a few
hundredths of an inch or less. The best chance for accumulating snow
looks to be across our northernmost counties in southern IN. Think
1-2 inches of snow will be possible tonight across this region, so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Some light accumulations look
to reach as far south as the river, but they look to stay under an
inch.

Regardless of what happens tonight, temperatures on Sunday should
warm quickly under southerly flow. All areas should transition to
rain by mid morning with rain continuing through the day on Sunday.
Highs will range from the upper 40s in the south to around 40 in the
north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Very Active Period of Weather Setting Up for the Ohio Valley...

The long term period continues to look very active as two system
will bring precipitation to the region.

System 1: Sunday night through Monday Night

System number one will be in progress at the start of the forecast
period.  As an area of low pressure continues to move northeastward
and away from the area, a surface cold front will sag southward
through the region.  Rain showers will be the predominant
precipitation type early Sunday night across the region.  However,
colder air will work into the region from the northwest as the
precipitation shield moves eastward.  This will result in the rain
changing over to a wintry mix and then over to plain snow before
ending.  Initially thought that we`d have more of a freezing rain
threat as the atmospheric column dried out and we lost moisture in
the ICZ.  However, the latest runs have trended a little more moist
in the column which would support more of a snow/sleet mix going
over to snow before ending.  Precipitation still looks to move out
quicker than the cold air can get in, so the length of time of
wintry precipitation late Sunday night looks to be a short window.
Nonetheless, a dusting or minor accumulation may be possible.  Lows
Sunday night will cool into the mid-upper 20s in the north with
lower 30s in the south.

We still expect to see a modified Arctic airmass spill into the
region for Monday and into Monday night which will provide the area
with a brief reprieve in the weather.  This break in the weather
will be short lived as the next system will quickly move into the
region late Monday night.  Highs Monday will warm back into the
mid-upper 30s in the north with upper 30s to the lower 40s across
the south.  By late Monday night, the cold front to the south will
retreat northward as a warm front and result in precipitation moving
back into the region from the southwest.  Temperatures look to
bottom out in the upper 20s in the north with near freezing
temperatures down across the south just after midnight.
Temperatures look to rise in the later half of the night, which
should result in mostly rain across the south.  Further north,
perhaps from the Parkways northward, a wintry mix of rain and
freezing rain will be possible for a short period.  This may result
in some minor icing accumulations before temperatures rise above
freezing after sunrise Tuesday.

System 2: Tuesday - Friday

By Tuesday, high pressure will be located to our east and we should
be firmly in a return flow/southerly wind pattern.  A fairly potent
upper level trough is forecast to eject out of the western US and
result in lee-side cyclogenesis.  This low looks to track from the
Plains through the upper Midwest and into southern Great Lakes.  We
will be on the warm side of this weather system and will see our
temperatures spike up for a short period of time.  Aloft, a fairly
impressive 300 hPa jet streak will be in place aloft combined with
an increasing low-level jet near 850 hPa will support strong
moisture advection into the region.  Instability is somewhat in
question given the large amount of cloud cover.  CAPE values are
still fairly low (100-200 J/Kg), but in the cool season, the high
shear/low CAPE environments often produce severe weather.  The SLU
CIPS analogs have been suggesting the threat of severe weather over
the SE US for the last several days.  We still think that is very
possible with the highest threat a little south of here, but it
would not take much to advect some of the higher instability values
up this way.

Moderate to heavy rainfall out ahead of the synoptic front looks
likely.  That combined with embedded thunderstorms could pose a risk
of flooding across the region during this time period.  Current QPF
forecasts suggest 2-3 inches of rainfall across the area...though
the OP GFS and Euro have slightly different placements on the QPF.
The timing for the heaviest rainfall would be Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues are likely to develop
across the region.  Those concerns are addressed in the Hydrology
section below.  Highs Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.  Highs Wednesday will likely peak early in the day
with falling temps through the remainder of the day.  Early day
highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look likely at this point.

As the synoptic front presses southward, modified Arctic air will
sink into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The
models have been signaling the potential for several waves of low
pressure moving northeastward along the front, which looks to bring
yet another wave of light to moderate precipitation into the
region.  With the Arctic air pushing in from the north, this may
result in significant wintry weather across the region.  This is not
an unprecedented setup for wintry weather.  Something similar to
this set up occurred back in March 1995 where we had 65+ degree
temps that quickly transitioned back into the upper 20s/lower 30s
with several inches of snow as the Arctic air slipped back into the
region.  This will be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier and colder conditions look to return to the region by Friday
as high pressure builds into the region from the NW.  Generally
stuck close to the multi-model consensus here for temps.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing.
Additional precipitation is expected across the region with totals
of up to a half inch.  This precipitation combined with the snowmelt
will saturate the ground and result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A secondary storm system is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected.
Around two to as much as two and half inches of rainfall is expected
with this storm system.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current forecast QPF projections, flooding
on the major river stems would likely begin Wednesday and continue
for the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy QPF axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River main stem.  We will continue to watch these
storms closely over the weekend and will continue coordination with
the RFC.  Residents in flood prone areas should closely monitor
water levels in the coming days and prepare for possible flooding by
midweek.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the
afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading
across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and
stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly
winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the
region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from
the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. LEX and
SDF look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down
through the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083.

&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Hydrology.........MJ
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280455
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

The forecast is on track this evening. Mid level clouds have
overspread the area, and with deeper moisture arriving toward dawn
some flurries are possible. Otherwise, temperatures still look on
track to reach the upper single digits north, to mid and upper teens
south.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the
afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading
across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and
stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly
winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the
region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from
the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. LEX and
SDF look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down
through the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......ZBT
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280455
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

The forecast is on track this evening. Mid level clouds have
overspread the area, and with deeper moisture arriving toward dawn
some flurries are possible. Otherwise, temperatures still look on
track to reach the upper single digits north, to mid and upper teens
south.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the
afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading
across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and
stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly
winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the
region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from
the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. LEX and
SDF look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down
through the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......ZBT
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280455
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

The forecast is on track this evening. Mid level clouds have
overspread the area, and with deeper moisture arriving toward dawn
some flurries are possible. Otherwise, temperatures still look on
track to reach the upper single digits north, to mid and upper teens
south.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the
afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading
across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and
stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly
winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the
region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from
the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. LEX and
SDF look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down
through the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......ZBT
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280455
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

The forecast is on track this evening. Mid level clouds have
overspread the area, and with deeper moisture arriving toward dawn
some flurries are possible. Otherwise, temperatures still look on
track to reach the upper single digits north, to mid and upper teens
south.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Flying conditions are expected to remain VFR tonight and through the
afternoon Saturday. A mid deck of clouds is currently spreading
across the area. Bases should lower to around 5-6 kft overnight and
stay in that range through the afternoon Saturday. Northeasterly
winds will become easterly as high pressure to the north of the
region shifts east today. As the next weather system approaches from
the southwest tomorrow evening, ceilings will begin to lower. LEX and
SDF look to drop to MVFR early Saturday evening and stay down
through the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......ZBT
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280251
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
951 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

The forecast is on track this evening. Mid level clouds have
overspread the area, and with deeper moisture arriving toward dawn
some flurries are possible. Otherwise, temperatures still look on
track to reach the upper single digits north, to mid and upper teens
south.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Expect quiet conditions through the TAF period, with steady NE and
ENE surface winds. There will be a mid deck of clouds overspreading
the area this evening, with ceilings getting as low as 5-6 K feet as
we near dawn. A few flurries will be possible at that time, however
won`t mention due to the lack of impacts. Mid and high clouds linger
through the day on Saturday, with winds veering more to an easterly
component.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......ZBT
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280251
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
951 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

The forecast is on track this evening. Mid level clouds have
overspread the area, and with deeper moisture arriving toward dawn
some flurries are possible. Otherwise, temperatures still look on
track to reach the upper single digits north, to mid and upper teens
south.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Expect quiet conditions through the TAF period, with steady NE and
ENE surface winds. There will be a mid deck of clouds overspreading
the area this evening, with ceilings getting as low as 5-6 K feet as
we near dawn. A few flurries will be possible at that time, however
won`t mention due to the lack of impacts. Mid and high clouds linger
through the day on Saturday, with winds veering more to an easterly
component.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......ZBT
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280251
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
951 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

The forecast is on track this evening. Mid level clouds have
overspread the area, and with deeper moisture arriving toward dawn
some flurries are possible. Otherwise, temperatures still look on
track to reach the upper single digits north, to mid and upper teens
south.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Expect quiet conditions through the TAF period, with steady NE and
ENE surface winds. There will be a mid deck of clouds overspreading
the area this evening, with ceilings getting as low as 5-6 K feet as
we near dawn. A few flurries will be possible at that time, however
won`t mention due to the lack of impacts. Mid and high clouds linger
through the day on Saturday, with winds veering more to an easterly
component.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......ZBT
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280251
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
951 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

The forecast is on track this evening. Mid level clouds have
overspread the area, and with deeper moisture arriving toward dawn
some flurries are possible. Otherwise, temperatures still look on
track to reach the upper single digits north, to mid and upper teens
south.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Expect quiet conditions through the TAF period, with steady NE and
ENE surface winds. There will be a mid deck of clouds overspreading
the area this evening, with ceilings getting as low as 5-6 K feet as
we near dawn. A few flurries will be possible at that time, however
won`t mention due to the lack of impacts. Mid and high clouds linger
through the day on Saturday, with winds veering more to an easterly
component.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......ZBT
Hydrology......CMC
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272300
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
600 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Expect quiet conditions through the TAF period, with steady NE and
ENE surface winds. There will be a mid deck of clouds overspreading
the area this evening, with ceilings getting as low as 5-6 K feet as
we near dawn. A few flurries will be possible at that time, however
won`t mention due to the lack of impacts. Mid and high clouds linger
through the day on Saturday, with winds veering more to an easterly
component.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........ZBT
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 272300
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
600 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Expect quiet conditions through the TAF period, with steady NE and
ENE surface winds. There will be a mid deck of clouds overspreading
the area this evening, with ceilings getting as low as 5-6 K feet as
we near dawn. A few flurries will be possible at that time, however
won`t mention due to the lack of impacts. Mid and high clouds linger
through the day on Saturday, with winds veering more to an easterly
component.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........ZBT
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272300
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
600 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Expect quiet conditions through the TAF period, with steady NE and
ENE surface winds. There will be a mid deck of clouds overspreading
the area this evening, with ceilings getting as low as 5-6 K feet as
we near dawn. A few flurries will be possible at that time, however
won`t mention due to the lack of impacts. Mid and high clouds linger
through the day on Saturday, with winds veering more to an easterly
component.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........ZBT
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272023
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Have pockets of cumulus near the threshold for VFR/MVFR at this time
across the region. Looks like the best chance to go down to MVFR is
at LEX for a few hours, based on latest visible satellite imagery.
These clouds should dissipate as the sun sets, but additional mid
and high clouds will come in here tonight as a disturbance now over
the southern Plains crosses our region. Not expecting precip with
this disturbance but as ceilings lower we could drop down to the
lower VFR range around daybreak Saturday. High pressure northwest of
the region now will shift to northeast of the region by Saturday,
changing our winds from northerly now to easterly by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........ZT
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272023
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Have pockets of cumulus near the threshold for VFR/MVFR at this time
across the region. Looks like the best chance to go down to MVFR is
at LEX for a few hours, based on latest visible satellite imagery.
These clouds should dissipate as the sun sets, but additional mid
and high clouds will come in here tonight as a disturbance now over
the southern Plains crosses our region. Not expecting precip with
this disturbance but as ceilings lower we could drop down to the
lower VFR range around daybreak Saturday. High pressure northwest of
the region now will shift to northeast of the region by Saturday,
changing our winds from northerly now to easterly by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........ZT
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 272023
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Have pockets of cumulus near the threshold for VFR/MVFR at this time
across the region. Looks like the best chance to go down to MVFR is
at LEX for a few hours, based on latest visible satellite imagery.
These clouds should dissipate as the sun sets, but additional mid
and high clouds will come in here tonight as a disturbance now over
the southern Plains crosses our region. Not expecting precip with
this disturbance but as ceilings lower we could drop down to the
lower VFR range around daybreak Saturday. High pressure northwest of
the region now will shift to northeast of the region by Saturday,
changing our winds from northerly now to easterly by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........ZT
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272023
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Unsettled Period of Weather Coming...

After a few early morning flurries/light snows, the rest of the day
has turned out pretty tranquil, though well below normal for
temperatures. Highs today are some 20-30 degrees colder than normal!
Clouds will be on the rise tonight as a winter weather system across
the Southern Plains sends its clouds our way. These clouds should
help to keep our lows from quite as low as they did last night, and
a little bit of a northeast wind should help with that as well. Thus
have forecast lows in the single digits only for our far
northeastern counties, whereas most locations should be in the teens.

Latest high-res models hint at a few radar returns possible as these
clouds move through. The moisture will be fairly high level
according to soundings, but would not be surprised to see some
flakes make it to the surface after midnight and into the morning
hours. Have added a period of scattered flurries areawide.
Temperatures during the day should warm to or above freezing for
many locations, as wind shifts to easterly and thicknesses come up.

Further warm air advection Saturday night will combine with better
moisture to bring a more solid chance for precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate the transition zone from rain to a wintry mix and
snow will be right over our area concurrently. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS max temperatures aloft as well as forecast surface
temperatures to approximate where those zones will be. As such, came
up with a narrow stripe of around an inch of snow, for the north
part of our northern counties in Indiana, with a few tenths of an
inch possible along the Ohio River. South of the snow zone in our
north, we could see some freezing rain. A lot will depend on
temperatures, but for now have a zone from the Bluegrass and Western
KY Parkways with some light ice accumulations, under a tenth of an
inch. Not sure how much of an impact this will be given the time of
day and it being a weekend, the antecedent wet grounds, which should
aid in slowing the freezing down, and with the warm air coming in we
should transition quickly to rain by late Sunday morning, see
discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Period of Active Weather Setting Up For Ohio Valley...

The long term forecast period is focused on two weather systems that
will bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley through next week.

System 1: Sunday - Monday night

As a weak area of low pressure moves from the central Plains to
southern Great Lakes, a band of precipitation is likely to break out
early Sunday morning across the northern forecast area. Soundings
show that a tight gradient between all liquid, a wintry mix and all
snow along the IND/LMK forecast area. Included a rain/snow mix with
just a slight chance of freezing rain across the northern forecast
areas where additional light accumulations are possible. Between
12-15z Sunday, southerly flow is expected to warm the boundary layer
temperatures sufficiently to support a changeover to all liquid
across the entire area.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly saturated during the day Sunday
with weak but persistent isentropic lift on the 290-305k surfaces.
Expecting periods of rain showers, highest coverage to be north of
the KY parkways during the day. Plan on highs to top out around 40
across southern Indiana to near 50 across south-central Kentucky. By
late afternoon into Sunday night, as the low pressure lifts
northeast, a front is dragged across the forecast area. This will
bring a band of showers to the entire area over the course of the
night. There is support for a changeover to a wintry mix of
rain/snow/freezing rain late Sunday night into very early Monday
morning across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky as the
column loses ice saturation aloft coupled with surface temperatures
falling below freezing. It looks to be a short window of opportunity
before moisture really dries up. For the rest of the area, lingering
precipitation will begin to exit Monday morning.

A modified Arctic air mass spills into the region Monday into Monday
night, giving the region a break in between systems. This will be
short-lived as the next system is quick on its heels. Look for highs
mainly in the 40s, still 5 to nearly 10 degrees below normal.

System 2: Tuesday - Wednesday

By Tuesday, high pressure will have pushed to the east coast,
setting up strong southerly flow across the deep south to the lower
Ohio Valley. As upper level energy ejects out of the southwest US, a
surface low develops in the lee side of the Rockies, deepening as it
takes a rough Denver-Kansas City-Chicago-Buffalo track. This puts the
forecast area well into the warm sector and dewpoints are progged to
climb into the low 60s Tuesday afternoon/evening. A near record
amount of moisture could be drawn up ahead of this system and PWATs
off the GFS have consistently been 1.5 to 1.6 inches ahead of the
cold front. This is between 3.0 and 3.5 SD above normal and would be
a record for BNA sounding climatology. We`ll also have surge of
warmer air, bringing milder and spring-like weather to the region.
Highs could reach well into the 60s Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
depending on the frontal passage timing.

There remains timing/placement differences between the forecast
models on the frontal passage and whether any boundaries may stall
out across the area. This of course impacts heavy rain and possible
t-storm, including severe weather, potential. Considering this is
day 5/6, while confidence is above average in seeing a strong storm
system next week, the details and exact placement still need to be
sorted out. The GFS continues to be a faster outlier while the
GEM/ECMWF are roughly 12-24 hours slower with its synoptic features.

Nonetheless, there`s good consensus that the upper levels will be
characterized by a 140-150kt 300 mb jet with a positive tilted upper
trough across the central CONUS. While at 850 mb, a 60-70 kt jet
sets up across the area. MUCAPE values are limited, generally less
than 100-200 J/kg, but the tongue of higher instability wouldn`t be
too far away so timing/location differences could still pull more
instability north. Generally, the high shear low cape environment
looks supportive of elevated thunderstorms with the potential for
strong to severe weather somewhere across deep south to lower Ohio
Valley. CIPS analog for Tuesday evening have the probability of
damaging wind or hail reports between 20-30 percent near the TN
border.

Hydrology will be another main concern as the area could receive
upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain over the course of the period. See
the hydrology section below for details on how this could impact the
area including river basins.

Thursday - Friday

A modified Arctic air mass noses down into the Ohio Valley in the
wake of the mid-week system, bringing a sharp temperature drop for
Thursday with highs back into the 30s. 27.12z continued to struggle
with how progressive the flow becomes as some of the deterministic
guidance stalls the mid level energy just to our southeast. Given
this moisture would be overrunning over a new, modified Arctic
boundary layer, this could spell concern for wintry weather. Until
these details can be sorted out, a model consensus with slight
chances of primarily rain or rain/snow mix look good at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

The snowpack in the area contains between a half and two inches of
liquid. The snow will continue to melt into the weekend as
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing and into the 40s on
Sunday. At the same time, mixed precipitation will move into the
region Saturday night and change over to all rain on Sunday. Up to a
half inch of liquid is expected. The combination of snowmelt and
rain will saturate the ground and cause rises on small streams.

On Monday night, another storm system is expected to move in with
more rain and snow changing over to all rain on Tuesday. There is
even a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rain will continue
into Wednesday night before it changes back into snow before ending
on Thursday.  The total amount of liquid precipitation is between
one and three additional inches.

This second storm could trigger widespread flooding, especially in
areas with heavier snowpacks. The flooding on the major rivers would
begin on Wednesday. At this time it is too early to predict where
the heaviest rains will fall near the Ohio River. The National
Weather Service will continue to watch these developing storms
closely this weekend. Residents in flood prone areas should expect
to begin to watch water levels next week.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Have pockets of cumulus near the threshold for VFR/MVFR at this time
across the region. Looks like the best chance to go down to MVFR is
at LEX for a few hours, based on latest visible satellite imagery.
These clouds should dissipate as the sun sets, but additional mid
and high clouds will come in here tonight as a disturbance now over
the southern Plains crosses our region. Not expecting precip with
this disturbance but as ceilings lower we could drop down to the
lower VFR range around daybreak Saturday. High pressure northwest of
the region now will shift to northeast of the region by Saturday,
changing our winds from northerly now to easterly by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........ZT
Hydrology.........CMC
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271723
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1223 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 730 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Quick update to keep flurries in the forecast a little longer down
south. Have returns on radar over our southwest forecast area. BWG
ASOS is not reporting snow at this point, but would not be surprised
to see some flurries down there.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

In the near term, surface front has passed well south of the
region.  Some partial clearing has worked into the region, but we`re
still dealing with one persistent area of low clouds and
flurries...mainly between Louisville and Owensboro.  Within the last
hour, this band has started showing trends of moving southward and
we expect this trend to continue through the morning.  The snow is
very light and a dusting at most will be possible as it moves
through.  Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies were noted with
temperatures generally in the lower teens in the north with upper
teens to around 20 in the south.  We expect temperatures to continue
to drop a few more degrees before bottoming out around sunrise.
Coldest temps look to be in our far NE Bluegrass sections where
single digits are likely this morning.

For today, high pressure will continue to build in from the
northwest.  In general, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected.
A southwesterly flow aloft will likely spread some mid-high level
cloudiness in during the afternoon.  Highs today will generally top
out in the upper teens to the very low 20s across the far north.  In
areas along the river down to the WK/BG Parkways, lower 20s are
likely.  The warmest readings will be down across southern KY where
mid-upper 20s will be possible.

For tonight, high pressure will generally be centered over Ohio.
This would usually result in good radiational cooling.  However,
model cross-sections suggest we`ll have mid-high level cloudiness
continuing to move from the west/southwest.  Thus, this is likely to
retard radiational cooling across much of the region...expect the
far NE Bluegrass region.  Current thinking is that we`ll see
readings generally in the lower-mid teens over the south/southwest
with single digits up over our far NE counties.

For Saturday, we`ll see continued mid-high level cloudiness stream
across the region.  Clouds will likely lower during the afternoon
hours as deeper moisture starts to advect in from the west.  Highs
are expected to moderate somewhat with highs in topping out in the
upper 20s in the north with lower-mid 30s across the south.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Active Long Term with multiple systems affecting the OH Valley...

System #1 Sat night-Monday Morning

Well...aloft we have broad upper level trough from Glacier NP MT to
Yosemite NP Ca will deepen through the extended will keep Ohio
Valley in SW flow for the bulk of the extended.  By Monday morning
the trough will deepen from Great Basin NP NV to Joshua Tree NP Ca
to Channel Islands NP CA.  Well...Arctic high pressure moves east
over the Shenandoah NP MD allowing sely to sly flow over CWA ahead
of the next.

Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Sat night, with models
continuing to focus the greatest lift and moisture over nwrn CWA.
Sounding profiles show RASN with perhaps a little IP mixed in. Made
tweaks to fcst and took out the FZRA. Ensembles and individual model
ensemble members focus the highest pops and QPF amounts north of the
BG Parkway. This is closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary.
The PWATs increase from 0.5 Sat evening to 1 inch Sunday night.
These PWATS are 1-2 standard deviation high and with wsw 850 llvl
jet of 40 knots, there should be consistent pcpn efficiency.

By Sunday night, a cold front will move through the region. However
this will keep pcpn across the area with likely POPS.  Late Sunday
night, thermal profiles change with nly sfc winds and wly winds
right off surface and sets the stages for 3-4 hour winds of fzra
across nrn 1/3 of the CWA.  Changed the grids to fzra from 9-12z for
now.  The pcpn will end from nw to se monday morning. This front
will not make typical frontal changes as the airmass does not change
much.

Wx Break... High Pressure Monday aftn and Mon Evening...
Behind the front the GFS advertising (GEM is much different) with a
1035 mb high quickly moving through, bringing some thinning in the
cloud cover and maybe some sun Monday afternoon across CWA before
the next stronger system moves in.  Have increased temps a few
degrees to near 50 on Monday.

Storm 2 Monday night through early Wed...

After the transitory high pushes through, CWA will return to a
southwest flow aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and
Tuesday we will return to a WAA pattern with that moisture already
in place. MEX gives 66 on Tue...and its leaning in the right
direction with strong swly llvl flow (even despite rain and cloud
cover). Increased temps 3-4 degrees to low 60s.

Forcing commences between 06-12z and have likely pops increasing to
categorical pops.

Flooding Comments...

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
There is a cornucopia of moisture and theta e advection.  PWATS are
2-3 SD above normal, and this sure looks like a Maddox heavy rain
event and could lead to some flooding issues. There is plenty of
forcing with this system with 300 mb jet of 140kts.  Sfc low will
track from the Land of Enchantment Monday night to the Sunflower
State Tuesday and to the Empire State Wed.  High probability of 2-4
inches of rain Tuesday-Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates as we fine
tune this forecast over the coming days.

The models support some tsra, albeit mostly elevated based off the
soundings.  The wind fields and the BUFKIT soundings look similar to
Feb 5-6 2008, but not as strong or not as saturated sounding.
There could be strong to severe storms Tuesday night near the CWA.
thunder as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well.

Wed afternoon-Thu...

GFS once again advertises a secondary wave and a snow and ice
event.  Will follow the progressive flow of the Euro and move this
system from NW to SE on Thu and not "touch this, as we have to get
through with the first 2 systems.  Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Have pockets of cumulus near the threshold for VFR/MVFR at this time
across the region. Looks like the best chance to go down to MVFR is
at LEX for a few hours, based on latest visible satellite imagery.
These clouds should dissipate as the sun sets, but additional mid
and high clouds will come in here tonight as a disturbance now over
the southern Plains crosses our region. Not expecting precip with
this disturbance but as ceilings lower we could drop down to the
lower VFR range around daybreak Saturday. High pressure northwest of
the region now will shift to northeast of the region by Saturday,
changing our winds from northerly now to easterly by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271723
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1223 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 730 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Quick update to keep flurries in the forecast a little longer down
south. Have returns on radar over our southwest forecast area. BWG
ASOS is not reporting snow at this point, but would not be surprised
to see some flurries down there.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

In the near term, surface front has passed well south of the
region.  Some partial clearing has worked into the region, but we`re
still dealing with one persistent area of low clouds and
flurries...mainly between Louisville and Owensboro.  Within the last
hour, this band has started showing trends of moving southward and
we expect this trend to continue through the morning.  The snow is
very light and a dusting at most will be possible as it moves
through.  Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies were noted with
temperatures generally in the lower teens in the north with upper
teens to around 20 in the south.  We expect temperatures to continue
to drop a few more degrees before bottoming out around sunrise.
Coldest temps look to be in our far NE Bluegrass sections where
single digits are likely this morning.

For today, high pressure will continue to build in from the
northwest.  In general, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected.
A southwesterly flow aloft will likely spread some mid-high level
cloudiness in during the afternoon.  Highs today will generally top
out in the upper teens to the very low 20s across the far north.  In
areas along the river down to the WK/BG Parkways, lower 20s are
likely.  The warmest readings will be down across southern KY where
mid-upper 20s will be possible.

For tonight, high pressure will generally be centered over Ohio.
This would usually result in good radiational cooling.  However,
model cross-sections suggest we`ll have mid-high level cloudiness
continuing to move from the west/southwest.  Thus, this is likely to
retard radiational cooling across much of the region...expect the
far NE Bluegrass region.  Current thinking is that we`ll see
readings generally in the lower-mid teens over the south/southwest
with single digits up over our far NE counties.

For Saturday, we`ll see continued mid-high level cloudiness stream
across the region.  Clouds will likely lower during the afternoon
hours as deeper moisture starts to advect in from the west.  Highs
are expected to moderate somewhat with highs in topping out in the
upper 20s in the north with lower-mid 30s across the south.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Active Long Term with multiple systems affecting the OH Valley...

System #1 Sat night-Monday Morning

Well...aloft we have broad upper level trough from Glacier NP MT to
Yosemite NP Ca will deepen through the extended will keep Ohio
Valley in SW flow for the bulk of the extended.  By Monday morning
the trough will deepen from Great Basin NP NV to Joshua Tree NP Ca
to Channel Islands NP CA.  Well...Arctic high pressure moves east
over the Shenandoah NP MD allowing sely to sly flow over CWA ahead
of the next.

Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Sat night, with models
continuing to focus the greatest lift and moisture over nwrn CWA.
Sounding profiles show RASN with perhaps a little IP mixed in. Made
tweaks to fcst and took out the FZRA. Ensembles and individual model
ensemble members focus the highest pops and QPF amounts north of the
BG Parkway. This is closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary.
The PWATs increase from 0.5 Sat evening to 1 inch Sunday night.
These PWATS are 1-2 standard deviation high and with wsw 850 llvl
jet of 40 knots, there should be consistent pcpn efficiency.

By Sunday night, a cold front will move through the region. However
this will keep pcpn across the area with likely POPS.  Late Sunday
night, thermal profiles change with nly sfc winds and wly winds
right off surface and sets the stages for 3-4 hour winds of fzra
across nrn 1/3 of the CWA.  Changed the grids to fzra from 9-12z for
now.  The pcpn will end from nw to se monday morning. This front
will not make typical frontal changes as the airmass does not change
much.

Wx Break... High Pressure Monday aftn and Mon Evening...
Behind the front the GFS advertising (GEM is much different) with a
1035 mb high quickly moving through, bringing some thinning in the
cloud cover and maybe some sun Monday afternoon across CWA before
the next stronger system moves in.  Have increased temps a few
degrees to near 50 on Monday.

Storm 2 Monday night through early Wed...

After the transitory high pushes through, CWA will return to a
southwest flow aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and
Tuesday we will return to a WAA pattern with that moisture already
in place. MEX gives 66 on Tue...and its leaning in the right
direction with strong swly llvl flow (even despite rain and cloud
cover). Increased temps 3-4 degrees to low 60s.

Forcing commences between 06-12z and have likely pops increasing to
categorical pops.

Flooding Comments...

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
There is a cornucopia of moisture and theta e advection.  PWATS are
2-3 SD above normal, and this sure looks like a Maddox heavy rain
event and could lead to some flooding issues. There is plenty of
forcing with this system with 300 mb jet of 140kts.  Sfc low will
track from the Land of Enchantment Monday night to the Sunflower
State Tuesday and to the Empire State Wed.  High probability of 2-4
inches of rain Tuesday-Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates as we fine
tune this forecast over the coming days.

The models support some tsra, albeit mostly elevated based off the
soundings.  The wind fields and the BUFKIT soundings look similar to
Feb 5-6 2008, but not as strong or not as saturated sounding.
There could be strong to severe storms Tuesday night near the CWA.
thunder as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well.

Wed afternoon-Thu...

GFS once again advertises a secondary wave and a snow and ice
event.  Will follow the progressive flow of the Euro and move this
system from NW to SE on Thu and not "touch this, as we have to get
through with the first 2 systems.  Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Have pockets of cumulus near the threshold for VFR/MVFR at this time
across the region. Looks like the best chance to go down to MVFR is
at LEX for a few hours, based on latest visible satellite imagery.
These clouds should dissipate as the sun sets, but additional mid
and high clouds will come in here tonight as a disturbance now over
the southern Plains crosses our region. Not expecting precip with
this disturbance but as ceilings lower we could drop down to the
lower VFR range around daybreak Saturday. High pressure northwest of
the region now will shift to northeast of the region by Saturday,
changing our winds from northerly now to easterly by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271232
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
732 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 730 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Quick update to keep flurries in the forecast a little longer down
south. Have returns on radar over our southwest forecast area. BWG
ASOS is not reporting snow at this point, but would not be surprised
to see some flurries down there.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

In the near term, surface front has passed well south of the
region.  Some partial clearing has worked into the region, but we`re
still dealing with one persistent area of low clouds and
flurries...mainly between Louisville and Owensboro.  Within the last
hour, this band has started showing trends of moving southward and
we expect this trend to continue through the morning.  The snow is
very light and a dusting at most will be possible as it moves
through.  Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies were noted with
temperatures generally in the lower teens in the north with upper
teens to around 20 in the south.  We expect temperatures to continue
to drop a few more degrees before bottoming out around sunrise.
Coldest temps look to be in our far NE Bluegrass sections where
single digits are likely this morning.

For today, high pressure will continue to build in from the
northwest.  In general, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected.
A southwesterly flow aloft will likely spread some mid-high level
cloudiness in during the afternoon.  Highs today will generally top
out in the upper teens to the very low 20s across the far north.  In
areas along the river down to the WK/BG Parkways, lower 20s are
likely.  The warmest readings will be down across southern KY where
mid-upper 20s will be possible.

For tonight, high pressure will generally be centered over Ohio.
This would usually result in good radiational cooling.  However,
model cross-sections suggest we`ll have mid-high level cloudiness
continuing to move from the west/southwest.  Thus, this is likely to
retard radiational cooling across much of the region...expect the
far NE Bluegrass region.  Current thinking is that we`ll see
readings generally in the lower-mid teens over the south/southwest
with single digits up over our far NE counties.

For Saturday, we`ll see continued mid-high level cloudiness stream
across the region.  Clouds will likely lower during the afternoon
hours as deeper moisture starts to advect in from the west.  Highs
are expected to moderate somewhat with highs in topping out in the
upper 20s in the north with lower-mid 30s across the south.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Active Long Term with multiple systems affecting the OH Valley...

System #1 Sat night-Monday Morning

Well...aloft we have broad upper level trough from Glacier NP MT to
Yosemite NP Ca will deepen through the extended will keep Ohio
Valley in SW flow for the bulk of the extended.  By Monday morning
the trough will deepen from Great Basin NP NV to Joshua Tree NP Ca
to Channel Islands NP CA.  Well...Arctic high pressure moves east
over the Shenandoah NP MD allowing sely to sly flow over CWA ahead
of the next.

Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Sat night, with models
continuing to focus the greatest lift and moisture over nwrn CWA.
Sounding profiles show RASN with perhaps a little IP mixed in. Made
tweaks to fcst and took out the FZRA. Ensembles and individual model
ensemble members focus the highest pops and QPF amounts north of the
BG Parkway. This is closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary.
The PWATs increase from 0.5 Sat evening to 1 inch Sunday night.
These PWATS are 1-2 standard deviation high and with wsw 850 llvl
jet of 40 knots, there should be consistent pcpn efficiency.

By Sunday night, a cold front will move through the region. However
this will keep pcpn across the area with likely POPS.  Late Sunday
night, thermal profiles change with nly sfc winds and wly winds
right off surface and sets the stages for 3-4 hour winds of fzra
across nrn 1/3 of the CWA.  Changed the grids to fzra from 9-12z for
now.  The pcpn will end from nw to se monday morning. This front
will not make typical frontal changes as the airmass does not change
much.

Wx Break... High Pressure Monday aftn and Mon Evening...
Behind the front the GFS advertising (GEM is much different) with a
1035 mb high quickly moving through, bringing some thinning in the
cloud cover and maybe some sun Monday afternoon across CWA before
the next stronger system moves in.  Have increased temps a few
degrees to near 50 on Monday.

Storm 2 Monday night through early Wed...

After the transitory high pushes through, CWA will return to a
southwest flow aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and
Tuesday we will return to a WAA pattern with that moisture already
in place. MEX gives 66 on Tue...and its leaning in the right
direction with strong swly llvl flow (even despite rain and cloud
cover). Increased temps 3-4 degrees to low 60s.

Forcing commences between 06-12z and have likely pops increasing to
categorical pops.

Flooding Comments...

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
There is a cornucopia of moisture and theta e advection.  PWATS are
2-3 SD above normal, and this sure looks like a Maddox heavy rain
event and could lead to some flooding issues. There is plenty of
forcing with this system with 300 mb jet of 140kts.  Sfc low will
track from the Land of Enchantment Monday night to the Sunflower
State Tuesday and to the Empire State Wed.  High probability of 2-4
inches of rain Tuesday-Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates as we fine
tune this forecast over the coming days.

The models support some tsra, albeit mostly elevated based off the
soundings.  The wind fields and the BUFKIT soundings look similar to
Feb 5-6 2008, but not as strong or not as saturated sounding.
There could be strong to severe storms Tuesday night near the CWA.
thunder as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well.

Wed afternoon-Thu...

GFS once again advertises a secondary wave and a snow and ice
event.  Will follow the progressive flow of the Euro and move this
system from NW to SE on Thu and not "touch this, as we have to get
through with the first 2 systems.  Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 605 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Batch of snow flurries continues to work its way down the I-65
corridor this morning.  The overall intensity continues to wane as
drier air pushes into the region from the north.  We expect some
scattered low clouds to continue at the terminals this morning, but
we expect ceilings to stay at/above VFR thresholds.  Surface winds
will remain out of the north to northeast this morning.  We still
believe that a scattered cu field will develop this afternoon and
then fade by sunset. Surface winds will remain out of the north this
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271232
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
732 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 730 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Quick update to keep flurries in the forecast a little longer down
south. Have returns on radar over our southwest forecast area. BWG
ASOS is not reporting snow at this point, but would not be surprised
to see some flurries down there.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

In the near term, surface front has passed well south of the
region.  Some partial clearing has worked into the region, but we`re
still dealing with one persistent area of low clouds and
flurries...mainly between Louisville and Owensboro.  Within the last
hour, this band has started showing trends of moving southward and
we expect this trend to continue through the morning.  The snow is
very light and a dusting at most will be possible as it moves
through.  Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies were noted with
temperatures generally in the lower teens in the north with upper
teens to around 20 in the south.  We expect temperatures to continue
to drop a few more degrees before bottoming out around sunrise.
Coldest temps look to be in our far NE Bluegrass sections where
single digits are likely this morning.

For today, high pressure will continue to build in from the
northwest.  In general, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected.
A southwesterly flow aloft will likely spread some mid-high level
cloudiness in during the afternoon.  Highs today will generally top
out in the upper teens to the very low 20s across the far north.  In
areas along the river down to the WK/BG Parkways, lower 20s are
likely.  The warmest readings will be down across southern KY where
mid-upper 20s will be possible.

For tonight, high pressure will generally be centered over Ohio.
This would usually result in good radiational cooling.  However,
model cross-sections suggest we`ll have mid-high level cloudiness
continuing to move from the west/southwest.  Thus, this is likely to
retard radiational cooling across much of the region...expect the
far NE Bluegrass region.  Current thinking is that we`ll see
readings generally in the lower-mid teens over the south/southwest
with single digits up over our far NE counties.

For Saturday, we`ll see continued mid-high level cloudiness stream
across the region.  Clouds will likely lower during the afternoon
hours as deeper moisture starts to advect in from the west.  Highs
are expected to moderate somewhat with highs in topping out in the
upper 20s in the north with lower-mid 30s across the south.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Active Long Term with multiple systems affecting the OH Valley...

System #1 Sat night-Monday Morning

Well...aloft we have broad upper level trough from Glacier NP MT to
Yosemite NP Ca will deepen through the extended will keep Ohio
Valley in SW flow for the bulk of the extended.  By Monday morning
the trough will deepen from Great Basin NP NV to Joshua Tree NP Ca
to Channel Islands NP CA.  Well...Arctic high pressure moves east
over the Shenandoah NP MD allowing sely to sly flow over CWA ahead
of the next.

Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Sat night, with models
continuing to focus the greatest lift and moisture over nwrn CWA.
Sounding profiles show RASN with perhaps a little IP mixed in. Made
tweaks to fcst and took out the FZRA. Ensembles and individual model
ensemble members focus the highest pops and QPF amounts north of the
BG Parkway. This is closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary.
The PWATs increase from 0.5 Sat evening to 1 inch Sunday night.
These PWATS are 1-2 standard deviation high and with wsw 850 llvl
jet of 40 knots, there should be consistent pcpn efficiency.

By Sunday night, a cold front will move through the region. However
this will keep pcpn across the area with likely POPS.  Late Sunday
night, thermal profiles change with nly sfc winds and wly winds
right off surface and sets the stages for 3-4 hour winds of fzra
across nrn 1/3 of the CWA.  Changed the grids to fzra from 9-12z for
now.  The pcpn will end from nw to se monday morning. This front
will not make typical frontal changes as the airmass does not change
much.

Wx Break... High Pressure Monday aftn and Mon Evening...
Behind the front the GFS advertising (GEM is much different) with a
1035 mb high quickly moving through, bringing some thinning in the
cloud cover and maybe some sun Monday afternoon across CWA before
the next stronger system moves in.  Have increased temps a few
degrees to near 50 on Monday.

Storm 2 Monday night through early Wed...

After the transitory high pushes through, CWA will return to a
southwest flow aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and
Tuesday we will return to a WAA pattern with that moisture already
in place. MEX gives 66 on Tue...and its leaning in the right
direction with strong swly llvl flow (even despite rain and cloud
cover). Increased temps 3-4 degrees to low 60s.

Forcing commences between 06-12z and have likely pops increasing to
categorical pops.

Flooding Comments...

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
There is a cornucopia of moisture and theta e advection.  PWATS are
2-3 SD above normal, and this sure looks like a Maddox heavy rain
event and could lead to some flooding issues. There is plenty of
forcing with this system with 300 mb jet of 140kts.  Sfc low will
track from the Land of Enchantment Monday night to the Sunflower
State Tuesday and to the Empire State Wed.  High probability of 2-4
inches of rain Tuesday-Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates as we fine
tune this forecast over the coming days.

The models support some tsra, albeit mostly elevated based off the
soundings.  The wind fields and the BUFKIT soundings look similar to
Feb 5-6 2008, but not as strong or not as saturated sounding.
There could be strong to severe storms Tuesday night near the CWA.
thunder as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well.

Wed afternoon-Thu...

GFS once again advertises a secondary wave and a snow and ice
event.  Will follow the progressive flow of the Euro and move this
system from NW to SE on Thu and not "touch this, as we have to get
through with the first 2 systems.  Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 605 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Batch of snow flurries continues to work its way down the I-65
corridor this morning.  The overall intensity continues to wane as
drier air pushes into the region from the north.  We expect some
scattered low clouds to continue at the terminals this morning, but
we expect ceilings to stay at/above VFR thresholds.  Surface winds
will remain out of the north to northeast this morning.  We still
believe that a scattered cu field will develop this afternoon and
then fade by sunset. Surface winds will remain out of the north this
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271106
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
606 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

In the near term, surface front has passed well south of the
region.  Some partial clearing has worked into the region, but we`re
still dealing with one persistent area of low clouds and
flurries...mainly between Louisville and Owensboro.  Within the last
hour, this band has started showing trends of moving southward and
we expect this trend to continue through the morning.  The snow is
very light and a dusting at most will be possible as it moves
through.  Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies were noted with
temperatures generally in the lower teens in the north with upper
teens to around 20 in the south.  We expect temperatures to continue
to drop a few more degrees before bottoming out around sunrise.
Coldest temps look to be in our far NE Bluegrass sections where
single digits are likely this morning.

For today, high pressure will continue to build in from the
northwest.  In general, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected.
A southwesterly flow aloft will likely spread some mid-high level
cloudiness in during the afternoon.  Highs today will generally top
out in the upper teens to the very low 20s across the far north.  In
areas along the river down to the WK/BG Parkways, lower 20s are
likely.  The warmest readings will be down across southern KY where
mid-upper 20s will be possible.

For tonight, high pressure will generally be centered over Ohio.
This would usually result in good radiational cooling.  However,
model cross-sections suggest we`ll have mid-high level cloudiness
continuing to move from the west/southwest.  Thus, this is likely to
retard radiational cooling across much of the region...expect the
far NE Bluegrass region.  Current thinking is that we`ll see
readings generally in the lower-mid teens over the south/southwest
with single digits up over our far NE counties.

For Saturday, we`ll see continued mid-high level cloudiness stream
across the region.  Clouds will likely lower during the afternoon
hours as deeper moisture starts to advect in from the west.  Highs
are expected to moderate somewhat with highs in topping out in the
upper 20s in the north with lower-mid 30s across the south.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Active Long Term with multiple systems affecting the OH Valley...

System #1 Sat night-Monday Morning

Well...aloft we have broad upper level trough from Glacier NP MT to
Yosemite NP Ca will deepen through the extended will keep Ohio
Valley in SW flow for the bulk of the extended.  By Monday morning
the trough will deepen from Great Basin NP NV to Joshua Tree NP Ca
to Channel Islands NP CA.  Well...Arctic high pressure moves east
over the Shenandoah NP MD allowing sely to sly flow over CWA ahead
of the next.

Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Sat night, with models
continuing to focus the greatest lift and moisture over nwrn CWA.
Sounding profiles show RASN with perhaps a little IP mixed in. Made
tweaks to fcst and took out the FZRA. Ensembles and individual model
ensemble members focus the highest pops and QPF amounts north of the
BG Parkway. This is closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary.
The PWATs increase from 0.5 Sat evening to 1 inch Sunday night.
These PWATS are 1-2 standard deviation high and with wsw 850 llvl
jet of 40 knots, there should be consistent pcpn efficiency.

By Sunday night, a cold front will move through the region. However
this will keep pcpn across the area with likely POPS.  Late Sunday
night, thermal profiles change with nly sfc winds and wly winds
right off surface and sets the stages for 3-4 hour winds of fzra
across nrn 1/3 of the CWA.  Changed the grids to fzra from 9-12z for
now.  The pcpn will end from nw to se monday morning. This front
will not make typical frontal changes as the airmass does not change
much.

Wx Break... High Pressure Monday aftn and Mon Evening...
Behind the front the GFS advertising (GEM is much different) with a
1035 mb high quickly moving through, bringing some thinning in the
cloud cover and maybe some sun Monday afternoon across CWA before
the next stronger system moves in.  Have increased temps a few
degrees to near 50 on Monday.

Storm 2 Monday night through early Wed...

After the transitory high pushes through, CWA will return to a
southwest flow aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and
Tuesday we will return to a WAA pattern with that moisture already
in place. MEX gives 66 on Tue...and its leaning in the right
direction with strong swly llvl flow (even despite rain and cloud
cover). Increased temps 3-4 degrees to low 60s.

Forcing commences between 06-12z and have likely pops increasing to
categorical pops.

Flooding Comments...

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
There is a cornucopia of moisture and theta e advection.  PWATS are
2-3 SD above normal, and this sure looks like a Maddox heavy rain
event and could lead to some flooding issues. There is plenty of
forcing with this system with 300 mb jet of 140kts.  Sfc low will
track from the Land of Enchantment Monday night to the Sunflower
State Tuesday and to the Empire State Wed.  High probability of 2-4
inches of rain Tuesday-Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates as we fine
tune this forecast over the coming days.

The models support some tsra, albeit mostly elevated based off the
soundings.  The wind fields and the BUFKIT soundings look similar to
Feb 5-6 2008, but not as strong or not as saturated sounding.
There could be strong to severe storms Tuesday night near the CWA.
thunder as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well.

Wed afternoon-Thu...

GFS once again advertises a secondary wave and a snow and ice
event.  Will follow the progressive flow of the Euro and move this
system from NW to SE on Thu and not "touch this, as we have to get
through with the first 2 systems.  Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 605 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Batch of snow flurries continues to work its way down the I-65
corridor this morning.  The overall intensity continues to wane as
drier air pushes into the region from the north.  We expect some
scattered low clouds to continue at the terminals this morning, but
we expect ceilings to stay at/above VFR thresholds.  Surface winds
will remain out of the north to northeast this morning.  We still
believe that a scattered cu field will develop this afternoon and
then fade by sunset. Surface winds will remain out of the north this
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271106
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
606 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

In the near term, surface front has passed well south of the
region.  Some partial clearing has worked into the region, but we`re
still dealing with one persistent area of low clouds and
flurries...mainly between Louisville and Owensboro.  Within the last
hour, this band has started showing trends of moving southward and
we expect this trend to continue through the morning.  The snow is
very light and a dusting at most will be possible as it moves
through.  Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies were noted with
temperatures generally in the lower teens in the north with upper
teens to around 20 in the south.  We expect temperatures to continue
to drop a few more degrees before bottoming out around sunrise.
Coldest temps look to be in our far NE Bluegrass sections where
single digits are likely this morning.

For today, high pressure will continue to build in from the
northwest.  In general, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected.
A southwesterly flow aloft will likely spread some mid-high level
cloudiness in during the afternoon.  Highs today will generally top
out in the upper teens to the very low 20s across the far north.  In
areas along the river down to the WK/BG Parkways, lower 20s are
likely.  The warmest readings will be down across southern KY where
mid-upper 20s will be possible.

For tonight, high pressure will generally be centered over Ohio.
This would usually result in good radiational cooling.  However,
model cross-sections suggest we`ll have mid-high level cloudiness
continuing to move from the west/southwest.  Thus, this is likely to
retard radiational cooling across much of the region...expect the
far NE Bluegrass region.  Current thinking is that we`ll see
readings generally in the lower-mid teens over the south/southwest
with single digits up over our far NE counties.

For Saturday, we`ll see continued mid-high level cloudiness stream
across the region.  Clouds will likely lower during the afternoon
hours as deeper moisture starts to advect in from the west.  Highs
are expected to moderate somewhat with highs in topping out in the
upper 20s in the north with lower-mid 30s across the south.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Active Long Term with multiple systems affecting the OH Valley...

System #1 Sat night-Monday Morning

Well...aloft we have broad upper level trough from Glacier NP MT to
Yosemite NP Ca will deepen through the extended will keep Ohio
Valley in SW flow for the bulk of the extended.  By Monday morning
the trough will deepen from Great Basin NP NV to Joshua Tree NP Ca
to Channel Islands NP CA.  Well...Arctic high pressure moves east
over the Shenandoah NP MD allowing sely to sly flow over CWA ahead
of the next.

Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Sat night, with models
continuing to focus the greatest lift and moisture over nwrn CWA.
Sounding profiles show RASN with perhaps a little IP mixed in. Made
tweaks to fcst and took out the FZRA. Ensembles and individual model
ensemble members focus the highest pops and QPF amounts north of the
BG Parkway. This is closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary.
The PWATs increase from 0.5 Sat evening to 1 inch Sunday night.
These PWATS are 1-2 standard deviation high and with wsw 850 llvl
jet of 40 knots, there should be consistent pcpn efficiency.

By Sunday night, a cold front will move through the region. However
this will keep pcpn across the area with likely POPS.  Late Sunday
night, thermal profiles change with nly sfc winds and wly winds
right off surface and sets the stages for 3-4 hour winds of fzra
across nrn 1/3 of the CWA.  Changed the grids to fzra from 9-12z for
now.  The pcpn will end from nw to se monday morning. This front
will not make typical frontal changes as the airmass does not change
much.

Wx Break... High Pressure Monday aftn and Mon Evening...
Behind the front the GFS advertising (GEM is much different) with a
1035 mb high quickly moving through, bringing some thinning in the
cloud cover and maybe some sun Monday afternoon across CWA before
the next stronger system moves in.  Have increased temps a few
degrees to near 50 on Monday.

Storm 2 Monday night through early Wed...

After the transitory high pushes through, CWA will return to a
southwest flow aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and
Tuesday we will return to a WAA pattern with that moisture already
in place. MEX gives 66 on Tue...and its leaning in the right
direction with strong swly llvl flow (even despite rain and cloud
cover). Increased temps 3-4 degrees to low 60s.

Forcing commences between 06-12z and have likely pops increasing to
categorical pops.

Flooding Comments...

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
There is a cornucopia of moisture and theta e advection.  PWATS are
2-3 SD above normal, and this sure looks like a Maddox heavy rain
event and could lead to some flooding issues. There is plenty of
forcing with this system with 300 mb jet of 140kts.  Sfc low will
track from the Land of Enchantment Monday night to the Sunflower
State Tuesday and to the Empire State Wed.  High probability of 2-4
inches of rain Tuesday-Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates as we fine
tune this forecast over the coming days.

The models support some tsra, albeit mostly elevated based off the
soundings.  The wind fields and the BUFKIT soundings look similar to
Feb 5-6 2008, but not as strong or not as saturated sounding.
There could be strong to severe storms Tuesday night near the CWA.
thunder as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well.

Wed afternoon-Thu...

GFS once again advertises a secondary wave and a snow and ice
event.  Will follow the progressive flow of the Euro and move this
system from NW to SE on Thu and not "touch this, as we have to get
through with the first 2 systems.  Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 605 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

Batch of snow flurries continues to work its way down the I-65
corridor this morning.  The overall intensity continues to wane as
drier air pushes into the region from the north.  We expect some
scattered low clouds to continue at the terminals this morning, but
we expect ceilings to stay at/above VFR thresholds.  Surface winds
will remain out of the north to northeast this morning.  We still
believe that a scattered cu field will develop this afternoon and
then fade by sunset. Surface winds will remain out of the north this
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270842
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
342 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

In the near term, surface front has passed well south of the
region.  Some partial clearing has worked into the region, but we`re
still dealing with one persistent area of low clouds and
flurries...mainly between Louisville and Owensboro.  Within the last
hour, this band has started showing trends of moving southward and
we expect this trend to continue through the morning.  The snow is
very light and a dusting at most will be possible as it moves
through.  Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies were noted with
temperatures generally in the lower teens in the north with upper
teens to around 20 in the south.  We expect temperatures to continue
to drop a few more degrees before bottoming out around sunrise.
Coldest temps look to be in our far NE Bluegrass sections where
single digits are likely this morning.

For today, high pressure will continue to build in from the
northwest.  In general, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected.
A southwesterly flow aloft will likely spread some mid-high level
cloudiness in during the afternoon.  Highs today will generally top
out in the upper teens to the very low 20s across the far north.  In
areas along the river down to the WK/BG Parkways, lower 20s are
likely.  The warmest readings will be down across southern KY where
mid-upper 20s will be possible.

For tonight, high pressure will generally be centered over Ohio.
This would usually result in good radiational cooling.  However,
model cross-sections suggest we`ll have mid-high level cloudiness
continuing to move from the west/southwest.  Thus, this is likely to
retard radiational cooling across much of the region...expect the
far NE Bluegrass region.  Current thinking is that we`ll see
readings generally in the lower-mid teens over the south/southwest
with single digits up over our far NE counties.

For Saturday, we`ll see continued mid-high level cloudiness stream
across the region.  Clouds will likely lower during the afternoon
hours as deeper moisture starts to advect in from the west.  Highs
are expected to moderate somewhat with highs in topping out in the
upper 20s in the north with lower-mid 30s across the south.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Active Long Term with multiple systems affecting the OH Valley...

System #1 Sat night-Monday Morning

Well...aloft we have broad upper level trough from Glacier NP MT to
Yosemite NP Ca will deepen through the extended will keep Ohio
Valley in SW flow for the bulk of the extended.  By Monday morning
the trough will deepen from Great Basin NP NV to Joshua Tree NP Ca
to Channel Islands NP CA.  Well...Arctic high pressure moves east
over the Shenandoah NP MD allowing sely to sly flow over CWA ahead
of the next.

Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Sat night, with models
continuing to focus the greatest lift and moisture over nwrn CWA.
Sounding profiles show RASN with perhaps a little IP mixed in. Made
tweaks to fcst and took out the FZRA. Ensembles and individual model
ensemble members focus the highest pops and QPF amounts north of the
BG Parkway. This is closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary.
The PWATs increase from 0.5 Sat evening to 1 inch Sunday night.
These PWATS are 1-2 standard deviation high and with wsw 850 llvl
jet of 40 knots, there should be consistent pcpn efficiency.

By Sunday night, a cold front will move through the region. However
this will keep pcpn across the area with likely POPS.  Late Sunday
night, thermal profiles change with nly sfc winds and wly winds
right off surface and sets the stages for 3-4 hour winds of fzra
across nrn 1/3 of the CWA.  Changed the grids to fzra from 9-12z for
now.  The pcpn will end from nw to se monday morning. This front
will not make typical frontal changes as the airmass does not change
much.

Wx Break... High Pressure Monday aftn and Mon Evening...
Behind the front the GFS advertising (GEM is much different) with a
1035 mb high quickly moving through, bringing some thinning in the
cloud cover and maybe some sun Monday afternoon across CWA before
the next stronger system moves in.  Have increased temps a few
degrees to near 50 on Monday.

Storm 2 Monday night through early Wed...

After the transitory high pushes through, CWA will return to a
southwest flow aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and
Tuesday we will return to a WAA pattern with that moisture already
in place. MEX gives 66 on Tue...and its leaning in the right
direction with strong swly llvl flow (even despite rain and cloud
cover). Increased temps 3-4 degrees to low 60s.

Forcing commences between 06-12z and have likely pops increasing to
categorical pops.

Flooding Comments...

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
There is a cornucopia of moisture and theta e advection.  PWATS are
2-3 SD above normal, and this sure looks like a Maddox heavy rain
event and could lead to some flooding issues. There is plenty of
forcing with this system with 300 mb jet of 140kts.  Sfc low will
track from the Land of Enchantment Monday night to the Sunflower
State Tuesday and to the Empire State Wed.  High probability of 2-4
inches of rain Tuesday-Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates as we fine
tune this forecast over the coming days.

The models support some tsra, albeit mostly elevated based off the
soundings.  The wind fields and the BUFKIT soundings look similar to
Feb 5-6 2008, but not as strong or not as saturated sounding.
There could be strong to severe storms Tuesday night near the CWA.
thunder as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well.

Wed afternoon-Thu...

GFS once again advertises a secondary wave and a snow and ice
event.  Will follow the progressive flow of the Euro and move this
system from NW to SE on Thu and not "touch this, as we have to get
through with the first 2 systems.  Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow showers and flurries will continue to move off to the southeast
overnight.  Behind the snow flurry activity, drier air will attempt
to work into the region.  Upstream, mostly clear skies were noted,
but some scattered patches of low clouds will drop southward
overnight.  For now, plan on keeping a scattered to broken deck
around FL035 overnight.  At this point, we do not expect any
aviation concerns overnight.  Winds will remain out of the northwest
overnight.  For Friday, probably will see somewhat of a cu field
develop with bases around FL035-FL040 with surface winds out of the
north to the northeast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270842
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
342 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

In the near term, surface front has passed well south of the
region.  Some partial clearing has worked into the region, but we`re
still dealing with one persistent area of low clouds and
flurries...mainly between Louisville and Owensboro.  Within the last
hour, this band has started showing trends of moving southward and
we expect this trend to continue through the morning.  The snow is
very light and a dusting at most will be possible as it moves
through.  Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies were noted with
temperatures generally in the lower teens in the north with upper
teens to around 20 in the south.  We expect temperatures to continue
to drop a few more degrees before bottoming out around sunrise.
Coldest temps look to be in our far NE Bluegrass sections where
single digits are likely this morning.

For today, high pressure will continue to build in from the
northwest.  In general, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected.
A southwesterly flow aloft will likely spread some mid-high level
cloudiness in during the afternoon.  Highs today will generally top
out in the upper teens to the very low 20s across the far north.  In
areas along the river down to the WK/BG Parkways, lower 20s are
likely.  The warmest readings will be down across southern KY where
mid-upper 20s will be possible.

For tonight, high pressure will generally be centered over Ohio.
This would usually result in good radiational cooling.  However,
model cross-sections suggest we`ll have mid-high level cloudiness
continuing to move from the west/southwest.  Thus, this is likely to
retard radiational cooling across much of the region...expect the
far NE Bluegrass region.  Current thinking is that we`ll see
readings generally in the lower-mid teens over the south/southwest
with single digits up over our far NE counties.

For Saturday, we`ll see continued mid-high level cloudiness stream
across the region.  Clouds will likely lower during the afternoon
hours as deeper moisture starts to advect in from the west.  Highs
are expected to moderate somewhat with highs in topping out in the
upper 20s in the north with lower-mid 30s across the south.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

...Active Long Term with multiple systems affecting the OH Valley...

System #1 Sat night-Monday Morning

Well...aloft we have broad upper level trough from Glacier NP MT to
Yosemite NP Ca will deepen through the extended will keep Ohio
Valley in SW flow for the bulk of the extended.  By Monday morning
the trough will deepen from Great Basin NP NV to Joshua Tree NP Ca
to Channel Islands NP CA.  Well...Arctic high pressure moves east
over the Shenandoah NP MD allowing sely to sly flow over CWA ahead
of the next.

Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Sat night, with models
continuing to focus the greatest lift and moisture over nwrn CWA.
Sounding profiles show RASN with perhaps a little IP mixed in. Made
tweaks to fcst and took out the FZRA. Ensembles and individual model
ensemble members focus the highest pops and QPF amounts north of the
BG Parkway. This is closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary.
The PWATs increase from 0.5 Sat evening to 1 inch Sunday night.
These PWATS are 1-2 standard deviation high and with wsw 850 llvl
jet of 40 knots, there should be consistent pcpn efficiency.

By Sunday night, a cold front will move through the region. However
this will keep pcpn across the area with likely POPS.  Late Sunday
night, thermal profiles change with nly sfc winds and wly winds
right off surface and sets the stages for 3-4 hour winds of fzra
across nrn 1/3 of the CWA.  Changed the grids to fzra from 9-12z for
now.  The pcpn will end from nw to se monday morning. This front
will not make typical frontal changes as the airmass does not change
much.

Wx Break... High Pressure Monday aftn and Mon Evening...
Behind the front the GFS advertising (GEM is much different) with a
1035 mb high quickly moving through, bringing some thinning in the
cloud cover and maybe some sun Monday afternoon across CWA before
the next stronger system moves in.  Have increased temps a few
degrees to near 50 on Monday.

Storm 2 Monday night through early Wed...

After the transitory high pushes through, CWA will return to a
southwest flow aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and
Tuesday we will return to a WAA pattern with that moisture already
in place. MEX gives 66 on Tue...and its leaning in the right
direction with strong swly llvl flow (even despite rain and cloud
cover). Increased temps 3-4 degrees to low 60s.

Forcing commences between 06-12z and have likely pops increasing to
categorical pops.

Flooding Comments...

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
There is a cornucopia of moisture and theta e advection.  PWATS are
2-3 SD above normal, and this sure looks like a Maddox heavy rain
event and could lead to some flooding issues. There is plenty of
forcing with this system with 300 mb jet of 140kts.  Sfc low will
track from the Land of Enchantment Monday night to the Sunflower
State Tuesday and to the Empire State Wed.  High probability of 2-4
inches of rain Tuesday-Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates as we fine
tune this forecast over the coming days.

The models support some tsra, albeit mostly elevated based off the
soundings.  The wind fields and the BUFKIT soundings look similar to
Feb 5-6 2008, but not as strong or not as saturated sounding.
There could be strong to severe storms Tuesday night near the CWA.
thunder as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well.

Wed afternoon-Thu...

GFS once again advertises a secondary wave and a snow and ice
event.  Will follow the progressive flow of the Euro and move this
system from NW to SE on Thu and not "touch this, as we have to get
through with the first 2 systems.  Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow showers and flurries will continue to move off to the southeast
overnight.  Behind the snow flurry activity, drier air will attempt
to work into the region.  Upstream, mostly clear skies were noted,
but some scattered patches of low clouds will drop southward
overnight.  For now, plan on keeping a scattered to broken deck
around FL035 overnight.  At this point, we do not expect any
aviation concerns overnight.  Winds will remain out of the northwest
overnight.  For Friday, probably will see somewhat of a cu field
develop with bases around FL035-FL040 with surface winds out of the
north to the northeast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270458
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1158 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow shower activity was quickly diminishing as of 915pm this
evening.  Expect most of it, if not all will be gone by midnight.
Some of the snow shower activity did put down a dusting in some
areas this evening.  The rest of the night looks quiet with cloud
cover eroding from the north.  Expect skies to become partly cloudy
tonight with on and off periods of thicker cloud cover.  This will
make pinning down low temps a bit tricky.  Overall though, think
more breaks in the clouds could allow for a little more cooling so
lowered temps 2-4 degrees mainly across southern Indiana/northern
Kentucky where clouds have already become partly cloudy (or will
soon), and thus these areas will have a larger window of better rad
cooling.

Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated the forecast to change precip wording to scattered snow
showers/flurries.  Radar has really blossomed over southern
IN/northern KY early this evening so feel that snow shower wording
is appropriate in addition to flurries.  Still not expecting any
accumulation more than a dusting from these snow showers/flurries
which should diminish across the area by midnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon is characterized by a broad
trough across the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, low
pressure is quickly moving off the mid-Atlantic coast while Arctic
high pressure is pushing into the northern Plains. This has put the
Ohio Valley under weak northerly flow. A weak upper level
disturbance has been working in from the west but hasn`t amounted to
much thanks to some drier air and overall weak dynamics. A fair
amount of sunshine allowed mid afternoon readings to rise into the
low to upper 30s, even top 40 degrees across the south. Clouds are
now quickly spreading east across the area, capping our temperature
rise for the day.

Plan on the Arctic high pressure to nose in from the northwest this
evening into tonight bringing another unseasonably cold night. As
colder air begins to surge southward, the cloud layer will become
more within the DGZ. Thus, scattered light snow showers or flurries
will remain possible through the evening. Some of this activity will
be diurnally driven, so expecting it to wane somewhat after sunset.
Nothing more than a dusting, if at all, is expected.

The air mass will become increasingly drier overnight, so expecting
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies early then clearing toward sunrise
Friday. Look for lows to range from around 10 degrees across
southern Indiana to mid/upper teens closer to the TN border. This is
contingent on clouds clearing out by late tonight, so if cloud
coverage is higher than anticipated, forecast lows are too cool.

High pressure will be the rule for Friday, bringing a very cold but
mostly to partly sunny day to southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will spill high level clouds
across the area, especially south of the KY parkways. Plan on
readings to top out in the low 20s across the north to the upper 20s
across south-central Kentucky. For comparison, normal highs are in
the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the high is expected to be centered over southern
Ohio which would be an ideal setup for radiational cooling. While
we`ll have light winds, forecast models are suggesting increasing
mid clouds from the west could prevent lows from bottoming out.
There is a good agreement between the 26.12z guidance in this, so
raised lows several degrees. This agrees with some of the gridded
guidance as well. Overall, still plenty cold with lows in the upper
single digits to the north to mid/upper teens across the Lake
Cumberland region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

High pressure should be centered just northeast of the region at the
start of the period, making for a cold start to the day Saturday.
That high will shift east of the region during the day, allowing for
a warmup to begin. With that warmup however also will come more
moisture, making for better rain chances for most of this forecast
period. Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Saturday night, with
models focusing the best lift and moisture over our northwest
forecast area. Sounding profiles are mixed around the freezing mark,
so have a wintry mix of precip in the forecast as well, mainly over
the northern half of the area Saturday night. Models are trending
toward that focus staying over the northern half of the region
Sunday, closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary and the forcing
it provides. Have kept pops in everywhere, but have the likelies
restricted to along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Then Sunday night a cold front will move through the region. This
front will not clean the region`s moisture out however, nor really
change airmasses much. After a fast-moving high pressure system
scoots by to our north Monday we will return to a southwest flow
aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and Tuesday we will
return to a warm air advection pattern with that moisture already in
place. Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with this
pattern, with perhaps a break Tuesday ahead of a cold front to sweep
through here Tuesday night. 12Z Euro just came in with a much later
solution for rains. Ensemble models are not in as much of an
agreement as well. Means are focused in the correct area, but
standard deviations almost are equal to the mean value, indicating
still quite a bit of uncertainty. Given this new Euro solution and
because of this spread in the ensembles have backed off some on pops
for Monday night and will hope for more unity in the next few model
runs. The GFS and GEM solutions would bring a shot at some thunder
as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well. Have added in
some slight chance thunder for the Tuesday night and Wednesday
period (with the latter giving some credence to the Euro solution).

Latest GFS has a third system moving across our region in the colder
air Wednesday and Wednesday night, ahead of the deep trough well
behind the cold front. 00Z ECMWF is similar but also has even
another vortmax bringing precip Thursday. The 12Z Euro backed off on
this thinking, though again it has slower timing on the event as a
whole. Given the uncertainty, cannot call for a dry period at this
point Wednesday or Thursday. Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
This forecast package will have storm total areal average rains of
2-3 inches. As these are averages, there is potential for greater
rains. This much rain likely would call some flooding across the
region. Stay tuned for updates as we fine tune this forecast over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow showers and flurries will continue to move off to the southeast
overnight.  Behind the snow flurry activity, drier air will attempt
to work into the region.  Upstream, mostly clear skies were noted,
but some scattered patches of low clouds will drop southward
overnight.  For now, plan on keeping a scattered to broken deck
around FL035 overnight.  At this point, we do not expect any
aviation concerns overnight.  Winds will remain out of the northwest
overnight.  For Friday, probably will see somewhat of a cu field
develop with bases around FL035-FL040 with surface winds out of the
north to the northeast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270458
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1158 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow shower activity was quickly diminishing as of 915pm this
evening.  Expect most of it, if not all will be gone by midnight.
Some of the snow shower activity did put down a dusting in some
areas this evening.  The rest of the night looks quiet with cloud
cover eroding from the north.  Expect skies to become partly cloudy
tonight with on and off periods of thicker cloud cover.  This will
make pinning down low temps a bit tricky.  Overall though, think
more breaks in the clouds could allow for a little more cooling so
lowered temps 2-4 degrees mainly across southern Indiana/northern
Kentucky where clouds have already become partly cloudy (or will
soon), and thus these areas will have a larger window of better rad
cooling.

Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated the forecast to change precip wording to scattered snow
showers/flurries.  Radar has really blossomed over southern
IN/northern KY early this evening so feel that snow shower wording
is appropriate in addition to flurries.  Still not expecting any
accumulation more than a dusting from these snow showers/flurries
which should diminish across the area by midnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon is characterized by a broad
trough across the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, low
pressure is quickly moving off the mid-Atlantic coast while Arctic
high pressure is pushing into the northern Plains. This has put the
Ohio Valley under weak northerly flow. A weak upper level
disturbance has been working in from the west but hasn`t amounted to
much thanks to some drier air and overall weak dynamics. A fair
amount of sunshine allowed mid afternoon readings to rise into the
low to upper 30s, even top 40 degrees across the south. Clouds are
now quickly spreading east across the area, capping our temperature
rise for the day.

Plan on the Arctic high pressure to nose in from the northwest this
evening into tonight bringing another unseasonably cold night. As
colder air begins to surge southward, the cloud layer will become
more within the DGZ. Thus, scattered light snow showers or flurries
will remain possible through the evening. Some of this activity will
be diurnally driven, so expecting it to wane somewhat after sunset.
Nothing more than a dusting, if at all, is expected.

The air mass will become increasingly drier overnight, so expecting
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies early then clearing toward sunrise
Friday. Look for lows to range from around 10 degrees across
southern Indiana to mid/upper teens closer to the TN border. This is
contingent on clouds clearing out by late tonight, so if cloud
coverage is higher than anticipated, forecast lows are too cool.

High pressure will be the rule for Friday, bringing a very cold but
mostly to partly sunny day to southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will spill high level clouds
across the area, especially south of the KY parkways. Plan on
readings to top out in the low 20s across the north to the upper 20s
across south-central Kentucky. For comparison, normal highs are in
the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the high is expected to be centered over southern
Ohio which would be an ideal setup for radiational cooling. While
we`ll have light winds, forecast models are suggesting increasing
mid clouds from the west could prevent lows from bottoming out.
There is a good agreement between the 26.12z guidance in this, so
raised lows several degrees. This agrees with some of the gridded
guidance as well. Overall, still plenty cold with lows in the upper
single digits to the north to mid/upper teens across the Lake
Cumberland region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

High pressure should be centered just northeast of the region at the
start of the period, making for a cold start to the day Saturday.
That high will shift east of the region during the day, allowing for
a warmup to begin. With that warmup however also will come more
moisture, making for better rain chances for most of this forecast
period. Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Saturday night, with
models focusing the best lift and moisture over our northwest
forecast area. Sounding profiles are mixed around the freezing mark,
so have a wintry mix of precip in the forecast as well, mainly over
the northern half of the area Saturday night. Models are trending
toward that focus staying over the northern half of the region
Sunday, closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary and the forcing
it provides. Have kept pops in everywhere, but have the likelies
restricted to along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Then Sunday night a cold front will move through the region. This
front will not clean the region`s moisture out however, nor really
change airmasses much. After a fast-moving high pressure system
scoots by to our north Monday we will return to a southwest flow
aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and Tuesday we will
return to a warm air advection pattern with that moisture already in
place. Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with this
pattern, with perhaps a break Tuesday ahead of a cold front to sweep
through here Tuesday night. 12Z Euro just came in with a much later
solution for rains. Ensemble models are not in as much of an
agreement as well. Means are focused in the correct area, but
standard deviations almost are equal to the mean value, indicating
still quite a bit of uncertainty. Given this new Euro solution and
because of this spread in the ensembles have backed off some on pops
for Monday night and will hope for more unity in the next few model
runs. The GFS and GEM solutions would bring a shot at some thunder
as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well. Have added in
some slight chance thunder for the Tuesday night and Wednesday
period (with the latter giving some credence to the Euro solution).

Latest GFS has a third system moving across our region in the colder
air Wednesday and Wednesday night, ahead of the deep trough well
behind the cold front. 00Z ECMWF is similar but also has even
another vortmax bringing precip Thursday. The 12Z Euro backed off on
this thinking, though again it has slower timing on the event as a
whole. Given the uncertainty, cannot call for a dry period at this
point Wednesday or Thursday. Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
This forecast package will have storm total areal average rains of
2-3 inches. As these are averages, there is potential for greater
rains. This much rain likely would call some flooding across the
region. Stay tuned for updates as we fine tune this forecast over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow showers and flurries will continue to move off to the southeast
overnight.  Behind the snow flurry activity, drier air will attempt
to work into the region.  Upstream, mostly clear skies were noted,
but some scattered patches of low clouds will drop southward
overnight.  For now, plan on keeping a scattered to broken deck
around FL035 overnight.  At this point, we do not expect any
aviation concerns overnight.  Winds will remain out of the northwest
overnight.  For Friday, probably will see somewhat of a cu field
develop with bases around FL035-FL040 with surface winds out of the
north to the northeast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270458
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1158 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow shower activity was quickly diminishing as of 915pm this
evening.  Expect most of it, if not all will be gone by midnight.
Some of the snow shower activity did put down a dusting in some
areas this evening.  The rest of the night looks quiet with cloud
cover eroding from the north.  Expect skies to become partly cloudy
tonight with on and off periods of thicker cloud cover.  This will
make pinning down low temps a bit tricky.  Overall though, think
more breaks in the clouds could allow for a little more cooling so
lowered temps 2-4 degrees mainly across southern Indiana/northern
Kentucky where clouds have already become partly cloudy (or will
soon), and thus these areas will have a larger window of better rad
cooling.

Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated the forecast to change precip wording to scattered snow
showers/flurries.  Radar has really blossomed over southern
IN/northern KY early this evening so feel that snow shower wording
is appropriate in addition to flurries.  Still not expecting any
accumulation more than a dusting from these snow showers/flurries
which should diminish across the area by midnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon is characterized by a broad
trough across the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, low
pressure is quickly moving off the mid-Atlantic coast while Arctic
high pressure is pushing into the northern Plains. This has put the
Ohio Valley under weak northerly flow. A weak upper level
disturbance has been working in from the west but hasn`t amounted to
much thanks to some drier air and overall weak dynamics. A fair
amount of sunshine allowed mid afternoon readings to rise into the
low to upper 30s, even top 40 degrees across the south. Clouds are
now quickly spreading east across the area, capping our temperature
rise for the day.

Plan on the Arctic high pressure to nose in from the northwest this
evening into tonight bringing another unseasonably cold night. As
colder air begins to surge southward, the cloud layer will become
more within the DGZ. Thus, scattered light snow showers or flurries
will remain possible through the evening. Some of this activity will
be diurnally driven, so expecting it to wane somewhat after sunset.
Nothing more than a dusting, if at all, is expected.

The air mass will become increasingly drier overnight, so expecting
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies early then clearing toward sunrise
Friday. Look for lows to range from around 10 degrees across
southern Indiana to mid/upper teens closer to the TN border. This is
contingent on clouds clearing out by late tonight, so if cloud
coverage is higher than anticipated, forecast lows are too cool.

High pressure will be the rule for Friday, bringing a very cold but
mostly to partly sunny day to southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will spill high level clouds
across the area, especially south of the KY parkways. Plan on
readings to top out in the low 20s across the north to the upper 20s
across south-central Kentucky. For comparison, normal highs are in
the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the high is expected to be centered over southern
Ohio which would be an ideal setup for radiational cooling. While
we`ll have light winds, forecast models are suggesting increasing
mid clouds from the west could prevent lows from bottoming out.
There is a good agreement between the 26.12z guidance in this, so
raised lows several degrees. This agrees with some of the gridded
guidance as well. Overall, still plenty cold with lows in the upper
single digits to the north to mid/upper teens across the Lake
Cumberland region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

High pressure should be centered just northeast of the region at the
start of the period, making for a cold start to the day Saturday.
That high will shift east of the region during the day, allowing for
a warmup to begin. With that warmup however also will come more
moisture, making for better rain chances for most of this forecast
period. Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Saturday night, with
models focusing the best lift and moisture over our northwest
forecast area. Sounding profiles are mixed around the freezing mark,
so have a wintry mix of precip in the forecast as well, mainly over
the northern half of the area Saturday night. Models are trending
toward that focus staying over the northern half of the region
Sunday, closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary and the forcing
it provides. Have kept pops in everywhere, but have the likelies
restricted to along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Then Sunday night a cold front will move through the region. This
front will not clean the region`s moisture out however, nor really
change airmasses much. After a fast-moving high pressure system
scoots by to our north Monday we will return to a southwest flow
aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and Tuesday we will
return to a warm air advection pattern with that moisture already in
place. Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with this
pattern, with perhaps a break Tuesday ahead of a cold front to sweep
through here Tuesday night. 12Z Euro just came in with a much later
solution for rains. Ensemble models are not in as much of an
agreement as well. Means are focused in the correct area, but
standard deviations almost are equal to the mean value, indicating
still quite a bit of uncertainty. Given this new Euro solution and
because of this spread in the ensembles have backed off some on pops
for Monday night and will hope for more unity in the next few model
runs. The GFS and GEM solutions would bring a shot at some thunder
as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well. Have added in
some slight chance thunder for the Tuesday night and Wednesday
period (with the latter giving some credence to the Euro solution).

Latest GFS has a third system moving across our region in the colder
air Wednesday and Wednesday night, ahead of the deep trough well
behind the cold front. 00Z ECMWF is similar but also has even
another vortmax bringing precip Thursday. The 12Z Euro backed off on
this thinking, though again it has slower timing on the event as a
whole. Given the uncertainty, cannot call for a dry period at this
point Wednesday or Thursday. Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
This forecast package will have storm total areal average rains of
2-3 inches. As these are averages, there is potential for greater
rains. This much rain likely would call some flooding across the
region. Stay tuned for updates as we fine tune this forecast over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow showers and flurries will continue to move off to the southeast
overnight.  Behind the snow flurry activity, drier air will attempt
to work into the region.  Upstream, mostly clear skies were noted,
but some scattered patches of low clouds will drop southward
overnight.  For now, plan on keeping a scattered to broken deck
around FL035 overnight.  At this point, we do not expect any
aviation concerns overnight.  Winds will remain out of the northwest
overnight.  For Friday, probably will see somewhat of a cu field
develop with bases around FL035-FL040 with surface winds out of the
north to the northeast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270458
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1158 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow shower activity was quickly diminishing as of 915pm this
evening.  Expect most of it, if not all will be gone by midnight.
Some of the snow shower activity did put down a dusting in some
areas this evening.  The rest of the night looks quiet with cloud
cover eroding from the north.  Expect skies to become partly cloudy
tonight with on and off periods of thicker cloud cover.  This will
make pinning down low temps a bit tricky.  Overall though, think
more breaks in the clouds could allow for a little more cooling so
lowered temps 2-4 degrees mainly across southern Indiana/northern
Kentucky where clouds have already become partly cloudy (or will
soon), and thus these areas will have a larger window of better rad
cooling.

Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated the forecast to change precip wording to scattered snow
showers/flurries.  Radar has really blossomed over southern
IN/northern KY early this evening so feel that snow shower wording
is appropriate in addition to flurries.  Still not expecting any
accumulation more than a dusting from these snow showers/flurries
which should diminish across the area by midnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon is characterized by a broad
trough across the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, low
pressure is quickly moving off the mid-Atlantic coast while Arctic
high pressure is pushing into the northern Plains. This has put the
Ohio Valley under weak northerly flow. A weak upper level
disturbance has been working in from the west but hasn`t amounted to
much thanks to some drier air and overall weak dynamics. A fair
amount of sunshine allowed mid afternoon readings to rise into the
low to upper 30s, even top 40 degrees across the south. Clouds are
now quickly spreading east across the area, capping our temperature
rise for the day.

Plan on the Arctic high pressure to nose in from the northwest this
evening into tonight bringing another unseasonably cold night. As
colder air begins to surge southward, the cloud layer will become
more within the DGZ. Thus, scattered light snow showers or flurries
will remain possible through the evening. Some of this activity will
be diurnally driven, so expecting it to wane somewhat after sunset.
Nothing more than a dusting, if at all, is expected.

The air mass will become increasingly drier overnight, so expecting
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies early then clearing toward sunrise
Friday. Look for lows to range from around 10 degrees across
southern Indiana to mid/upper teens closer to the TN border. This is
contingent on clouds clearing out by late tonight, so if cloud
coverage is higher than anticipated, forecast lows are too cool.

High pressure will be the rule for Friday, bringing a very cold but
mostly to partly sunny day to southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will spill high level clouds
across the area, especially south of the KY parkways. Plan on
readings to top out in the low 20s across the north to the upper 20s
across south-central Kentucky. For comparison, normal highs are in
the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the high is expected to be centered over southern
Ohio which would be an ideal setup for radiational cooling. While
we`ll have light winds, forecast models are suggesting increasing
mid clouds from the west could prevent lows from bottoming out.
There is a good agreement between the 26.12z guidance in this, so
raised lows several degrees. This agrees with some of the gridded
guidance as well. Overall, still plenty cold with lows in the upper
single digits to the north to mid/upper teens across the Lake
Cumberland region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

High pressure should be centered just northeast of the region at the
start of the period, making for a cold start to the day Saturday.
That high will shift east of the region during the day, allowing for
a warmup to begin. With that warmup however also will come more
moisture, making for better rain chances for most of this forecast
period. Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Saturday night, with
models focusing the best lift and moisture over our northwest
forecast area. Sounding profiles are mixed around the freezing mark,
so have a wintry mix of precip in the forecast as well, mainly over
the northern half of the area Saturday night. Models are trending
toward that focus staying over the northern half of the region
Sunday, closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary and the forcing
it provides. Have kept pops in everywhere, but have the likelies
restricted to along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Then Sunday night a cold front will move through the region. This
front will not clean the region`s moisture out however, nor really
change airmasses much. After a fast-moving high pressure system
scoots by to our north Monday we will return to a southwest flow
aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and Tuesday we will
return to a warm air advection pattern with that moisture already in
place. Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with this
pattern, with perhaps a break Tuesday ahead of a cold front to sweep
through here Tuesday night. 12Z Euro just came in with a much later
solution for rains. Ensemble models are not in as much of an
agreement as well. Means are focused in the correct area, but
standard deviations almost are equal to the mean value, indicating
still quite a bit of uncertainty. Given this new Euro solution and
because of this spread in the ensembles have backed off some on pops
for Monday night and will hope for more unity in the next few model
runs. The GFS and GEM solutions would bring a shot at some thunder
as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well. Have added in
some slight chance thunder for the Tuesday night and Wednesday
period (with the latter giving some credence to the Euro solution).

Latest GFS has a third system moving across our region in the colder
air Wednesday and Wednesday night, ahead of the deep trough well
behind the cold front. 00Z ECMWF is similar but also has even
another vortmax bringing precip Thursday. The 12Z Euro backed off on
this thinking, though again it has slower timing on the event as a
whole. Given the uncertainty, cannot call for a dry period at this
point Wednesday or Thursday. Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
This forecast package will have storm total areal average rains of
2-3 inches. As these are averages, there is potential for greater
rains. This much rain likely would call some flooding across the
region. Stay tuned for updates as we fine tune this forecast over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow showers and flurries will continue to move off to the southeast
overnight.  Behind the snow flurry activity, drier air will attempt
to work into the region.  Upstream, mostly clear skies were noted,
but some scattered patches of low clouds will drop southward
overnight.  For now, plan on keeping a scattered to broken deck
around FL035 overnight.  At this point, we do not expect any
aviation concerns overnight.  Winds will remain out of the northwest
overnight.  For Friday, probably will see somewhat of a cu field
develop with bases around FL035-FL040 with surface winds out of the
north to the northeast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270227
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
927 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow shower activity was quickly diminishing as of 915pm this
evening.  Expect most of it, if not all will be gone by midnight.
Some of the snow shower activity did put down a dusting in some
areas this evening.  The rest of the night looks quiet with cloud
cover eroding from the north.  Expect skies to become partly cloudy
tonight with on and off periods of thicker cloud cover.  This will
make pinning down low temps a bit tricky.  Overall though, think
more breaks in the clouds could allow for a little more cooling so
lowered temps 2-4 degrees mainly across southern Indiana/northern
Kentucky where clouds have already become partly cloudy (or will
soon), and thus these areas will have a larger window of better rad
cooling.

Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated the forecast to change precip wording to scattered snow
showers/flurries.  Radar has really blossomed over southern
IN/northern KY early this evening so feel that snow shower wording
is appropriate in addition to flurries.  Still not expecting any
accumulation more than a dusting from these snow showers/flurries
which should diminish across the area by midnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon is characterized by a broad
trough across the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, low
pressure is quickly moving off the mid-Atlantic coast while Arctic
high pressure is pushing into the northern Plains. This has put the
Ohio Valley under weak northerly flow. A weak upper level
disturbance has been working in from the west but hasn`t amounted to
much thanks to some drier air and overall weak dynamics. A fair
amount of sunshine allowed mid afternoon readings to rise into the
low to upper 30s, even top 40 degrees across the south. Clouds are
now quickly spreading east across the area, capping our temperature
rise for the day.

Plan on the Arctic high pressure to nose in from the northwest this
evening into tonight bringing another unseasonably cold night. As
colder air begins to surge southward, the cloud layer will become
more within the DGZ. Thus, scattered light snow showers or flurries
will remain possible through the evening. Some of this activity will
be diurnally driven, so expecting it to wane somewhat after sunset.
Nothing more than a dusting, if at all, is expected.

The air mass will become increasingly drier overnight, so expecting
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies early then clearing toward sunrise
Friday. Look for lows to range from around 10 degrees across
southern Indiana to mid/upper teens closer to the TN border. This is
contingent on clouds clearing out by late tonight, so if cloud
coverage is higher than anticipated, forecast lows are too cool.

High pressure will be the rule for Friday, bringing a very cold but
mostly to partly sunny day to southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will spill high level clouds
across the area, especially south of the KY parkways. Plan on
readings to top out in the low 20s across the north to the upper 20s
across south-central Kentucky. For comparison, normal highs are in
the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the high is expected to be centered over southern
Ohio which would be an ideal setup for radiational cooling. While
we`ll have light winds, forecast models are suggesting increasing
mid clouds from the west could prevent lows from bottoming out.
There is a good agreement between the 26.12z guidance in this, so
raised lows several degrees. This agrees with some of the gridded
guidance as well. Overall, still plenty cold with lows in the upper
single digits to the north to mid/upper teens across the Lake
Cumberland region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

High pressure should be centered just northeast of the region at the
start of the period, making for a cold start to the day Saturday.
That high will shift east of the region during the day, allowing for
a warmup to begin. With that warmup however also will come more
moisture, making for better rain chances for most of this forecast
period. Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Saturday night, with
models focusing the best lift and moisture over our northwest
forecast area. Sounding profiles are mixed around the freezing mark,
so have a wintry mix of precip in the forecast as well, mainly over
the northern half of the area Saturday night. Models are trending
toward that focus staying over the northern half of the region
Sunday, closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary and the forcing
it provides. Have kept pops in everywhere, but have the likelies
restricted to along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Then Sunday night a cold front will move through the region. This
front will not clean the region`s moisture out however, nor really
change airmasses much. After a fast-moving high pressure system
scoots by to our north Monday we will return to a southwest flow
aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and Tuesday we will
return to a warm air advection pattern with that moisture already in
place. Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with this
pattern, with perhaps a break Tuesday ahead of a cold front to sweep
through here Tuesday night. 12Z Euro just came in with a much later
solution for rains. Ensemble models are not in as much of an
agreement as well. Means are focused in the correct area, but
standard deviations almost are equal to the mean value, indicating
still quite a bit of uncertainty. Given this new Euro solution and
because of this spread in the ensembles have backed off some on pops
for Monday night and will hope for more unity in the next few model
runs. The GFS and GEM solutions would bring a shot at some thunder
as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well. Have added in
some slight chance thunder for the Tuesday night and Wednesday
period (with the latter giving some credence to the Euro solution).

Latest GFS has a third system moving across our region in the colder
air Wednesday and Wednesday night, ahead of the deep trough well
behind the cold front. 00Z ECMWF is similar but also has even
another vortmax bringing precip Thursday. The 12Z Euro backed off on
this thinking, though again it has slower timing on the event as a
whole. Given the uncertainty, cannot call for a dry period at this
point Wednesday or Thursday. Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
This forecast package will have storm total areal average rains of
2-3 inches. As these are averages, there is potential for greater
rains. This much rain likely would call some flooding across the
region. Stay tuned for updates as we fine tune this forecast over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow showers/flurries will continue over the region through around
midnight but should not cause any vsby reductions.  MVFR cigs may
occur this evening inside or outside of a snow shower.  A period of
MVFR cigs is expected during the overnight hours.  Model guidance
varies on how low cigs will be and how quickly cigs will scatter out
in the morning.  Will be on the conservative side with this forecast
keeping MVFR above 2 kft overnight.  Then will take flight
conditions back to VFR around sunrise and lasting through the day.
However, cigs may dip back down to MVFR levels above 2 kft during
the morning hours tomorrow.  Hopefully short-term model guidance
will come into better agreement on evolution of the low cloud deck
soon.  Winds will decrease in strength this evening and shift from
NNW to NE late in the day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270227
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
927 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow shower activity was quickly diminishing as of 915pm this
evening.  Expect most of it, if not all will be gone by midnight.
Some of the snow shower activity did put down a dusting in some
areas this evening.  The rest of the night looks quiet with cloud
cover eroding from the north.  Expect skies to become partly cloudy
tonight with on and off periods of thicker cloud cover.  This will
make pinning down low temps a bit tricky.  Overall though, think
more breaks in the clouds could allow for a little more cooling so
lowered temps 2-4 degrees mainly across southern Indiana/northern
Kentucky where clouds have already become partly cloudy (or will
soon), and thus these areas will have a larger window of better rad
cooling.

Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated the forecast to change precip wording to scattered snow
showers/flurries.  Radar has really blossomed over southern
IN/northern KY early this evening so feel that snow shower wording
is appropriate in addition to flurries.  Still not expecting any
accumulation more than a dusting from these snow showers/flurries
which should diminish across the area by midnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon is characterized by a broad
trough across the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, low
pressure is quickly moving off the mid-Atlantic coast while Arctic
high pressure is pushing into the northern Plains. This has put the
Ohio Valley under weak northerly flow. A weak upper level
disturbance has been working in from the west but hasn`t amounted to
much thanks to some drier air and overall weak dynamics. A fair
amount of sunshine allowed mid afternoon readings to rise into the
low to upper 30s, even top 40 degrees across the south. Clouds are
now quickly spreading east across the area, capping our temperature
rise for the day.

Plan on the Arctic high pressure to nose in from the northwest this
evening into tonight bringing another unseasonably cold night. As
colder air begins to surge southward, the cloud layer will become
more within the DGZ. Thus, scattered light snow showers or flurries
will remain possible through the evening. Some of this activity will
be diurnally driven, so expecting it to wane somewhat after sunset.
Nothing more than a dusting, if at all, is expected.

The air mass will become increasingly drier overnight, so expecting
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies early then clearing toward sunrise
Friday. Look for lows to range from around 10 degrees across
southern Indiana to mid/upper teens closer to the TN border. This is
contingent on clouds clearing out by late tonight, so if cloud
coverage is higher than anticipated, forecast lows are too cool.

High pressure will be the rule for Friday, bringing a very cold but
mostly to partly sunny day to southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will spill high level clouds
across the area, especially south of the KY parkways. Plan on
readings to top out in the low 20s across the north to the upper 20s
across south-central Kentucky. For comparison, normal highs are in
the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the high is expected to be centered over southern
Ohio which would be an ideal setup for radiational cooling. While
we`ll have light winds, forecast models are suggesting increasing
mid clouds from the west could prevent lows from bottoming out.
There is a good agreement between the 26.12z guidance in this, so
raised lows several degrees. This agrees with some of the gridded
guidance as well. Overall, still plenty cold with lows in the upper
single digits to the north to mid/upper teens across the Lake
Cumberland region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

High pressure should be centered just northeast of the region at the
start of the period, making for a cold start to the day Saturday.
That high will shift east of the region during the day, allowing for
a warmup to begin. With that warmup however also will come more
moisture, making for better rain chances for most of this forecast
period. Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Saturday night, with
models focusing the best lift and moisture over our northwest
forecast area. Sounding profiles are mixed around the freezing mark,
so have a wintry mix of precip in the forecast as well, mainly over
the northern half of the area Saturday night. Models are trending
toward that focus staying over the northern half of the region
Sunday, closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary and the forcing
it provides. Have kept pops in everywhere, but have the likelies
restricted to along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Then Sunday night a cold front will move through the region. This
front will not clean the region`s moisture out however, nor really
change airmasses much. After a fast-moving high pressure system
scoots by to our north Monday we will return to a southwest flow
aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and Tuesday we will
return to a warm air advection pattern with that moisture already in
place. Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with this
pattern, with perhaps a break Tuesday ahead of a cold front to sweep
through here Tuesday night. 12Z Euro just came in with a much later
solution for rains. Ensemble models are not in as much of an
agreement as well. Means are focused in the correct area, but
standard deviations almost are equal to the mean value, indicating
still quite a bit of uncertainty. Given this new Euro solution and
because of this spread in the ensembles have backed off some on pops
for Monday night and will hope for more unity in the next few model
runs. The GFS and GEM solutions would bring a shot at some thunder
as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well. Have added in
some slight chance thunder for the Tuesday night and Wednesday
period (with the latter giving some credence to the Euro solution).

Latest GFS has a third system moving across our region in the colder
air Wednesday and Wednesday night, ahead of the deep trough well
behind the cold front. 00Z ECMWF is similar but also has even
another vortmax bringing precip Thursday. The 12Z Euro backed off on
this thinking, though again it has slower timing on the event as a
whole. Given the uncertainty, cannot call for a dry period at this
point Wednesday or Thursday. Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
This forecast package will have storm total areal average rains of
2-3 inches. As these are averages, there is potential for greater
rains. This much rain likely would call some flooding across the
region. Stay tuned for updates as we fine tune this forecast over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow showers/flurries will continue over the region through around
midnight but should not cause any vsby reductions.  MVFR cigs may
occur this evening inside or outside of a snow shower.  A period of
MVFR cigs is expected during the overnight hours.  Model guidance
varies on how low cigs will be and how quickly cigs will scatter out
in the morning.  Will be on the conservative side with this forecast
keeping MVFR above 2 kft overnight.  Then will take flight
conditions back to VFR around sunrise and lasting through the day.
However, cigs may dip back down to MVFR levels above 2 kft during
the morning hours tomorrow.  Hopefully short-term model guidance
will come into better agreement on evolution of the low cloud deck
soon.  Winds will decrease in strength this evening and shift from
NNW to NE late in the day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262339
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
639 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated the forecast to change precip wording to scattered snow
showers/flurries.  Radar has really blossomed over southern
IN/northern KY early this evening so feel that snow shower wording
is appropriate in addition to flurries.  Still not expecting any
accumulation more than a dusting from these snow showers/flurries
which should diminish across the area by midnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon is characterized by a broad
trough across the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, low
pressure is quickly moving off the mid-Atlantic coast while Arctic
high pressure is pushing into the northern Plains. This has put the
Ohio Valley under weak northerly flow. A weak upper level
disturbance has been working in from the west but hasn`t amounted to
much thanks to some drier air and overall weak dynamics. A fair
amount of sunshine allowed mid afternoon readings to rise into the
low to upper 30s, even top 40 degrees across the south. Clouds are
now quickly spreading east across the area, capping our temperature
rise for the day.

Plan on the Arctic high pressure to nose in from the northwest this
evening into tonight bringing another unseasonably cold night. As
colder air begins to surge southward, the cloud layer will become
more within the DGZ. Thus, scattered light snow showers or flurries
will remain possible through the evening. Some of this activity will
be diurnally driven, so expecting it to wane somewhat after sunset.
Nothing more than a dusting, if at all, is expected.

The air mass will become increasingly drier overnight, so expecting
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies early then clearing toward sunrise
Friday. Look for lows to range from around 10 degrees across
southern Indiana to mid/upper teens closer to the TN border. This is
contingent on clouds clearing out by late tonight, so if cloud
coverage is higher than anticipated, forecast lows are too cool.

High pressure will be the rule for Friday, bringing a very cold but
mostly to partly sunny day to southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will spill high level clouds
across the area, especially south of the KY parkways. Plan on
readings to top out in the low 20s across the north to the upper 20s
across south-central Kentucky. For comparison, normal highs are in
the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the high is expected to be centered over southern
Ohio which would be an ideal setup for radiational cooling. While
we`ll have light winds, forecast models are suggesting increasing
mid clouds from the west could prevent lows from bottoming out.
There is a good agreement between the 26.12z guidance in this, so
raised lows several degrees. This agrees with some of the gridded
guidance as well. Overall, still plenty cold with lows in the upper
single digits to the north to mid/upper teens across the Lake
Cumberland region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

High pressure should be centered just northeast of the region at the
start of the period, making for a cold start to the day Saturday.
That high will shift east of the region during the day, allowing for
a warmup to begin. With that warmup however also will come more
moisture, making for better rain chances for most of this forecast
period. Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Saturday night, with
models focusing the best lift and moisture over our northwest
forecast area. Sounding profiles are mixed around the freezing mark,
so have a wintry mix of precip in the forecast as well, mainly over
the northern half of the area Saturday night. Models are trending
toward that focus staying over the northern half of the region
Sunday, closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary and the forcing
it provides. Have kept pops in everywhere, but have the likelies
restricted to along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Then Sunday night a cold front will move through the region. This
front will not clean the region`s moisture out however, nor really
change airmasses much. After a fast-moving high pressure system
scoots by to our north Monday we will return to a southwest flow
aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and Tuesday we will
return to a warm air advection pattern with that moisture already in
place. Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with this
pattern, with perhaps a break Tuesday ahead of a cold front to sweep
through here Tuesday night. 12Z Euro just came in with a much later
solution for rains. Ensemble models are not in as much of an
agreement as well. Means are focused in the correct area, but
standard deviations almost are equal to the mean value, indicating
still quite a bit of uncertainty. Given this new Euro solution and
because of this spread in the ensembles have backed off some on pops
for Monday night and will hope for more unity in the next few model
runs. The GFS and GEM solutions would bring a shot at some thunder
as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well. Have added in
some slight chance thunder for the Tuesday night and Wednesday
period (with the latter giving some credence to the Euro solution).

Latest GFS has a third system moving across our region in the colder
air Wednesday and Wednesday night, ahead of the deep trough well
behind the cold front. 00Z ECMWF is similar but also has even
another vortmax bringing precip Thursday. The 12Z Euro backed off on
this thinking, though again it has slower timing on the event as a
whole. Given the uncertainty, cannot call for a dry period at this
point Wednesday or Thursday. Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
This forecast package will have storm total areal average rains of
2-3 inches. As these are averages, there is potential for greater
rains. This much rain likely would call some flooding across the
region. Stay tuned for updates as we fine tune this forecast over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow showers/flurries will continue over the region through around
midnight but should not cause any vsby reductions.  MVFR cigs may
occur this evening inside or outside of a snow shower.  A period of
MVFR cigs is expected during the overnight hours.  Model guidance
varies on how low cigs will be and how quickly cigs will scatter out
in the morning.  Will be on the conservative side with this forecast
keeping MVFR above 2 kft overnight.  Then will take flight
conditions back to VFR around sunrise and lasting through the day.
However, cigs may dip back down to MVFR levels above 2 kft during
the morning hours tomorrow.  Hopefully short-term model guidance
will come into better agreement on evolution of the low cloud deck
soon.  Winds will decrease in strength this evening and shift from
NNW to NE late in the day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262339
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
639 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated the forecast to change precip wording to scattered snow
showers/flurries.  Radar has really blossomed over southern
IN/northern KY early this evening so feel that snow shower wording
is appropriate in addition to flurries.  Still not expecting any
accumulation more than a dusting from these snow showers/flurries
which should diminish across the area by midnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon is characterized by a broad
trough across the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, low
pressure is quickly moving off the mid-Atlantic coast while Arctic
high pressure is pushing into the northern Plains. This has put the
Ohio Valley under weak northerly flow. A weak upper level
disturbance has been working in from the west but hasn`t amounted to
much thanks to some drier air and overall weak dynamics. A fair
amount of sunshine allowed mid afternoon readings to rise into the
low to upper 30s, even top 40 degrees across the south. Clouds are
now quickly spreading east across the area, capping our temperature
rise for the day.

Plan on the Arctic high pressure to nose in from the northwest this
evening into tonight bringing another unseasonably cold night. As
colder air begins to surge southward, the cloud layer will become
more within the DGZ. Thus, scattered light snow showers or flurries
will remain possible through the evening. Some of this activity will
be diurnally driven, so expecting it to wane somewhat after sunset.
Nothing more than a dusting, if at all, is expected.

The air mass will become increasingly drier overnight, so expecting
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies early then clearing toward sunrise
Friday. Look for lows to range from around 10 degrees across
southern Indiana to mid/upper teens closer to the TN border. This is
contingent on clouds clearing out by late tonight, so if cloud
coverage is higher than anticipated, forecast lows are too cool.

High pressure will be the rule for Friday, bringing a very cold but
mostly to partly sunny day to southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will spill high level clouds
across the area, especially south of the KY parkways. Plan on
readings to top out in the low 20s across the north to the upper 20s
across south-central Kentucky. For comparison, normal highs are in
the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the high is expected to be centered over southern
Ohio which would be an ideal setup for radiational cooling. While
we`ll have light winds, forecast models are suggesting increasing
mid clouds from the west could prevent lows from bottoming out.
There is a good agreement between the 26.12z guidance in this, so
raised lows several degrees. This agrees with some of the gridded
guidance as well. Overall, still plenty cold with lows in the upper
single digits to the north to mid/upper teens across the Lake
Cumberland region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

High pressure should be centered just northeast of the region at the
start of the period, making for a cold start to the day Saturday.
That high will shift east of the region during the day, allowing for
a warmup to begin. With that warmup however also will come more
moisture, making for better rain chances for most of this forecast
period. Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Saturday night, with
models focusing the best lift and moisture over our northwest
forecast area. Sounding profiles are mixed around the freezing mark,
so have a wintry mix of precip in the forecast as well, mainly over
the northern half of the area Saturday night. Models are trending
toward that focus staying over the northern half of the region
Sunday, closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary and the forcing
it provides. Have kept pops in everywhere, but have the likelies
restricted to along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Then Sunday night a cold front will move through the region. This
front will not clean the region`s moisture out however, nor really
change airmasses much. After a fast-moving high pressure system
scoots by to our north Monday we will return to a southwest flow
aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and Tuesday we will
return to a warm air advection pattern with that moisture already in
place. Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with this
pattern, with perhaps a break Tuesday ahead of a cold front to sweep
through here Tuesday night. 12Z Euro just came in with a much later
solution for rains. Ensemble models are not in as much of an
agreement as well. Means are focused in the correct area, but
standard deviations almost are equal to the mean value, indicating
still quite a bit of uncertainty. Given this new Euro solution and
because of this spread in the ensembles have backed off some on pops
for Monday night and will hope for more unity in the next few model
runs. The GFS and GEM solutions would bring a shot at some thunder
as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well. Have added in
some slight chance thunder for the Tuesday night and Wednesday
period (with the latter giving some credence to the Euro solution).

Latest GFS has a third system moving across our region in the colder
air Wednesday and Wednesday night, ahead of the deep trough well
behind the cold front. 00Z ECMWF is similar but also has even
another vortmax bringing precip Thursday. The 12Z Euro backed off on
this thinking, though again it has slower timing on the event as a
whole. Given the uncertainty, cannot call for a dry period at this
point Wednesday or Thursday. Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
This forecast package will have storm total areal average rains of
2-3 inches. As these are averages, there is potential for greater
rains. This much rain likely would call some flooding across the
region. Stay tuned for updates as we fine tune this forecast over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow showers/flurries will continue over the region through around
midnight but should not cause any vsby reductions.  MVFR cigs may
occur this evening inside or outside of a snow shower.  A period of
MVFR cigs is expected during the overnight hours.  Model guidance
varies on how low cigs will be and how quickly cigs will scatter out
in the morning.  Will be on the conservative side with this forecast
keeping MVFR above 2 kft overnight.  Then will take flight
conditions back to VFR around sunrise and lasting through the day.
However, cigs may dip back down to MVFR levels above 2 kft during
the morning hours tomorrow.  Hopefully short-term model guidance
will come into better agreement on evolution of the low cloud deck
soon.  Winds will decrease in strength this evening and shift from
NNW to NE late in the day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 262251
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
551 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated the forecast to change precip wording to scattered snow
showers/flurries.  Radar has really blossomed over southern
IN/northern KY early this evening so feel that snow shower wording
is appropriate in addition to flurries.  Still not expecting any
accumulation more than a dusting from these snow showers/flurries
which should diminish across the area by midnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon is characterized by a broad
trough across the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, low
pressure is quickly moving off the mid-Atlantic coast while Arctic
high pressure is pushing into the northern Plains. This has put the
Ohio Valley under weak northerly flow. A weak upper level
disturbance has been working in from the west but hasn`t amounted to
much thanks to some drier air and overall weak dynamics. A fair
amount of sunshine allowed mid afternoon readings to rise into the
low to upper 30s, even top 40 degrees across the south. Clouds are
now quickly spreading east across the area, capping our temperature
rise for the day.

Plan on the Arctic high pressure to nose in from the northwest this
evening into tonight bringing another unseasonably cold night. As
colder air begins to surge southward, the cloud layer will become
more within the DGZ. Thus, scattered light snow showers or flurries
will remain possible through the evening. Some of this activity will
be diurnally driven, so expecting it to wane somewhat after sunset.
Nothing more than a dusting, if at all, is expected.

The air mass will become increasingly drier overnight, so expecting
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies early then clearing toward sunrise
Friday. Look for lows to range from around 10 degrees across
southern Indiana to mid/upper teens closer to the TN border. This is
contingent on clouds clearing out by late tonight, so if cloud
coverage is higher than anticipated, forecast lows are too cool.

High pressure will be the rule for Friday, bringing a very cold but
mostly to partly sunny day to southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will spill high level clouds
across the area, especially south of the KY parkways. Plan on
readings to top out in the low 20s across the north to the upper 20s
across south-central Kentucky. For comparison, normal highs are in
the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the high is expected to be centered over southern
Ohio which would be an ideal setup for radiational cooling. While
we`ll have light winds, forecast models are suggesting increasing
mid clouds from the west could prevent lows from bottoming out.
There is a good agreement between the 26.12z guidance in this, so
raised lows several degrees. This agrees with some of the gridded
guidance as well. Overall, still plenty cold with lows in the upper
single digits to the north to mid/upper teens across the Lake
Cumberland region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

High pressure should be centered just northeast of the region at the
start of the period, making for a cold start to the day Saturday.
That high will shift east of the region during the day, allowing for
a warmup to begin. With that warmup however also will come more
moisture, making for better rain chances for most of this forecast
period. Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Saturday night, with
models focusing the best lift and moisture over our northwest
forecast area. Sounding profiles are mixed around the freezing mark,
so have a wintry mix of precip in the forecast as well, mainly over
the northern half of the area Saturday night. Models are trending
toward that focus staying over the northern half of the region
Sunday, closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary and the forcing
it provides. Have kept pops in everywhere, but have the likelies
restricted to along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Then Sunday night a cold front will move through the region. This
front will not clean the region`s moisture out however, nor really
change airmasses much. After a fast-moving high pressure system
scoots by to our north Monday we will return to a southwest flow
aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and Tuesday we will
return to a warm air advection pattern with that moisture already in
place. Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with this
pattern, with perhaps a break Tuesday ahead of a cold front to sweep
through here Tuesday night. 12Z Euro just came in with a much later
solution for rains. Ensemble models are not in as much of an
agreement as well. Means are focused in the correct area, but
standard deviations almost are equal to the mean value, indicating
still quite a bit of uncertainty. Given this new Euro solution and
because of this spread in the ensembles have backed off some on pops
for Monday night and will hope for more unity in the next few model
runs. The GFS and GEM solutions would bring a shot at some thunder
as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well. Have added in
some slight chance thunder for the Tuesday night and Wednesday
period (with the latter giving some credence to the Euro solution).

Latest GFS has a third system moving across our region in the colder
air Wednesday and Wednesday night, ahead of the deep trough well
behind the cold front. 00Z ECMWF is similar but also has even
another vortmax bringing precip Thursday. The 12Z Euro backed off on
this thinking, though again it has slower timing on the event as a
whole. Given the uncertainty, cannot call for a dry period at this
point Wednesday or Thursday. Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
This forecast package will have storm total areal average rains of
2-3 inches. As these are averages, there is potential for greater
rains. This much rain likely would call some flooding across the
region. Stay tuned for updates as we fine tune this forecast over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Broken strato-cu with bases mainly VFR will slowly move over the TAF
sites this afternoon. However, drier air and overall weakening of
the system will limit coverage somewhat. As a result, removed VCSH
from TAF but still could not rule a brief snow shower or flurry
though impacts to aviation should be minimal. Confidence in sub-VFR
clouds increases this evening as better/deeper moisture pivots into
central Kentucky associated with fetch from the Great Lakes. Plan on
winds 5 to 10 kts to remain out of the north through the period.
Overnight, stratus could be stuck across the area beneath the low
level inversion, with the highest probability at LEX. Look for
scattering of the clouds between 12-18z Friday as high pressure
moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262251
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
551 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated the forecast to change precip wording to scattered snow
showers/flurries.  Radar has really blossomed over southern
IN/northern KY early this evening so feel that snow shower wording
is appropriate in addition to flurries.  Still not expecting any
accumulation more than a dusting from these snow showers/flurries
which should diminish across the area by midnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon is characterized by a broad
trough across the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, low
pressure is quickly moving off the mid-Atlantic coast while Arctic
high pressure is pushing into the northern Plains. This has put the
Ohio Valley under weak northerly flow. A weak upper level
disturbance has been working in from the west but hasn`t amounted to
much thanks to some drier air and overall weak dynamics. A fair
amount of sunshine allowed mid afternoon readings to rise into the
low to upper 30s, even top 40 degrees across the south. Clouds are
now quickly spreading east across the area, capping our temperature
rise for the day.

Plan on the Arctic high pressure to nose in from the northwest this
evening into tonight bringing another unseasonably cold night. As
colder air begins to surge southward, the cloud layer will become
more within the DGZ. Thus, scattered light snow showers or flurries
will remain possible through the evening. Some of this activity will
be diurnally driven, so expecting it to wane somewhat after sunset.
Nothing more than a dusting, if at all, is expected.

The air mass will become increasingly drier overnight, so expecting
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies early then clearing toward sunrise
Friday. Look for lows to range from around 10 degrees across
southern Indiana to mid/upper teens closer to the TN border. This is
contingent on clouds clearing out by late tonight, so if cloud
coverage is higher than anticipated, forecast lows are too cool.

High pressure will be the rule for Friday, bringing a very cold but
mostly to partly sunny day to southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will spill high level clouds
across the area, especially south of the KY parkways. Plan on
readings to top out in the low 20s across the north to the upper 20s
across south-central Kentucky. For comparison, normal highs are in
the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the high is expected to be centered over southern
Ohio which would be an ideal setup for radiational cooling. While
we`ll have light winds, forecast models are suggesting increasing
mid clouds from the west could prevent lows from bottoming out.
There is a good agreement between the 26.12z guidance in this, so
raised lows several degrees. This agrees with some of the gridded
guidance as well. Overall, still plenty cold with lows in the upper
single digits to the north to mid/upper teens across the Lake
Cumberland region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

High pressure should be centered just northeast of the region at the
start of the period, making for a cold start to the day Saturday.
That high will shift east of the region during the day, allowing for
a warmup to begin. With that warmup however also will come more
moisture, making for better rain chances for most of this forecast
period. Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Saturday night, with
models focusing the best lift and moisture over our northwest
forecast area. Sounding profiles are mixed around the freezing mark,
so have a wintry mix of precip in the forecast as well, mainly over
the northern half of the area Saturday night. Models are trending
toward that focus staying over the northern half of the region
Sunday, closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary and the forcing
it provides. Have kept pops in everywhere, but have the likelies
restricted to along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Then Sunday night a cold front will move through the region. This
front will not clean the region`s moisture out however, nor really
change airmasses much. After a fast-moving high pressure system
scoots by to our north Monday we will return to a southwest flow
aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and Tuesday we will
return to a warm air advection pattern with that moisture already in
place. Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with this
pattern, with perhaps a break Tuesday ahead of a cold front to sweep
through here Tuesday night. 12Z Euro just came in with a much later
solution for rains. Ensemble models are not in as much of an
agreement as well. Means are focused in the correct area, but
standard deviations almost are equal to the mean value, indicating
still quite a bit of uncertainty. Given this new Euro solution and
because of this spread in the ensembles have backed off some on pops
for Monday night and will hope for more unity in the next few model
runs. The GFS and GEM solutions would bring a shot at some thunder
as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well. Have added in
some slight chance thunder for the Tuesday night and Wednesday
period (with the latter giving some credence to the Euro solution).

Latest GFS has a third system moving across our region in the colder
air Wednesday and Wednesday night, ahead of the deep trough well
behind the cold front. 00Z ECMWF is similar but also has even
another vortmax bringing precip Thursday. The 12Z Euro backed off on
this thinking, though again it has slower timing on the event as a
whole. Given the uncertainty, cannot call for a dry period at this
point Wednesday or Thursday. Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
This forecast package will have storm total areal average rains of
2-3 inches. As these are averages, there is potential for greater
rains. This much rain likely would call some flooding across the
region. Stay tuned for updates as we fine tune this forecast over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Broken strato-cu with bases mainly VFR will slowly move over the TAF
sites this afternoon. However, drier air and overall weakening of
the system will limit coverage somewhat. As a result, removed VCSH
from TAF but still could not rule a brief snow shower or flurry
though impacts to aviation should be minimal. Confidence in sub-VFR
clouds increases this evening as better/deeper moisture pivots into
central Kentucky associated with fetch from the Great Lakes. Plan on
winds 5 to 10 kts to remain out of the north through the period.
Overnight, stratus could be stuck across the area beneath the low
level inversion, with the highest probability at LEX. Look for
scattering of the clouds between 12-18z Friday as high pressure
moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262251
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
551 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 545 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated the forecast to change precip wording to scattered snow
showers/flurries.  Radar has really blossomed over southern
IN/northern KY early this evening so feel that snow shower wording
is appropriate in addition to flurries.  Still not expecting any
accumulation more than a dusting from these snow showers/flurries
which should diminish across the area by midnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon is characterized by a broad
trough across the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, low
pressure is quickly moving off the mid-Atlantic coast while Arctic
high pressure is pushing into the northern Plains. This has put the
Ohio Valley under weak northerly flow. A weak upper level
disturbance has been working in from the west but hasn`t amounted to
much thanks to some drier air and overall weak dynamics. A fair
amount of sunshine allowed mid afternoon readings to rise into the
low to upper 30s, even top 40 degrees across the south. Clouds are
now quickly spreading east across the area, capping our temperature
rise for the day.

Plan on the Arctic high pressure to nose in from the northwest this
evening into tonight bringing another unseasonably cold night. As
colder air begins to surge southward, the cloud layer will become
more within the DGZ. Thus, scattered light snow showers or flurries
will remain possible through the evening. Some of this activity will
be diurnally driven, so expecting it to wane somewhat after sunset.
Nothing more than a dusting, if at all, is expected.

The air mass will become increasingly drier overnight, so expecting
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies early then clearing toward sunrise
Friday. Look for lows to range from around 10 degrees across
southern Indiana to mid/upper teens closer to the TN border. This is
contingent on clouds clearing out by late tonight, so if cloud
coverage is higher than anticipated, forecast lows are too cool.

High pressure will be the rule for Friday, bringing a very cold but
mostly to partly sunny day to southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will spill high level clouds
across the area, especially south of the KY parkways. Plan on
readings to top out in the low 20s across the north to the upper 20s
across south-central Kentucky. For comparison, normal highs are in
the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the high is expected to be centered over southern
Ohio which would be an ideal setup for radiational cooling. While
we`ll have light winds, forecast models are suggesting increasing
mid clouds from the west could prevent lows from bottoming out.
There is a good agreement between the 26.12z guidance in this, so
raised lows several degrees. This agrees with some of the gridded
guidance as well. Overall, still plenty cold with lows in the upper
single digits to the north to mid/upper teens across the Lake
Cumberland region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

High pressure should be centered just northeast of the region at the
start of the period, making for a cold start to the day Saturday.
That high will shift east of the region during the day, allowing for
a warmup to begin. With that warmup however also will come more
moisture, making for better rain chances for most of this forecast
period. Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Saturday night, with
models focusing the best lift and moisture over our northwest
forecast area. Sounding profiles are mixed around the freezing mark,
so have a wintry mix of precip in the forecast as well, mainly over
the northern half of the area Saturday night. Models are trending
toward that focus staying over the northern half of the region
Sunday, closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary and the forcing
it provides. Have kept pops in everywhere, but have the likelies
restricted to along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Then Sunday night a cold front will move through the region. This
front will not clean the region`s moisture out however, nor really
change airmasses much. After a fast-moving high pressure system
scoots by to our north Monday we will return to a southwest flow
aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and Tuesday we will
return to a warm air advection pattern with that moisture already in
place. Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with this
pattern, with perhaps a break Tuesday ahead of a cold front to sweep
through here Tuesday night. 12Z Euro just came in with a much later
solution for rains. Ensemble models are not in as much of an
agreement as well. Means are focused in the correct area, but
standard deviations almost are equal to the mean value, indicating
still quite a bit of uncertainty. Given this new Euro solution and
because of this spread in the ensembles have backed off some on pops
for Monday night and will hope for more unity in the next few model
runs. The GFS and GEM solutions would bring a shot at some thunder
as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well. Have added in
some slight chance thunder for the Tuesday night and Wednesday
period (with the latter giving some credence to the Euro solution).

Latest GFS has a third system moving across our region in the colder
air Wednesday and Wednesday night, ahead of the deep trough well
behind the cold front. 00Z ECMWF is similar but also has even
another vortmax bringing precip Thursday. The 12Z Euro backed off on
this thinking, though again it has slower timing on the event as a
whole. Given the uncertainty, cannot call for a dry period at this
point Wednesday or Thursday. Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
This forecast package will have storm total areal average rains of
2-3 inches. As these are averages, there is potential for greater
rains. This much rain likely would call some flooding across the
region. Stay tuned for updates as we fine tune this forecast over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Broken strato-cu with bases mainly VFR will slowly move over the TAF
sites this afternoon. However, drier air and overall weakening of
the system will limit coverage somewhat. As a result, removed VCSH
from TAF but still could not rule a brief snow shower or flurry
though impacts to aviation should be minimal. Confidence in sub-VFR
clouds increases this evening as better/deeper moisture pivots into
central Kentucky associated with fetch from the Great Lakes. Plan on
winds 5 to 10 kts to remain out of the north through the period.
Overnight, stratus could be stuck across the area beneath the low
level inversion, with the highest probability at LEX. Look for
scattering of the clouds between 12-18z Friday as high pressure
moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 262016
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

The synoptic pattern this afternoon is characterized by a broad
trough across the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, low
pressure is quickly moving off the mid-Atlantic coast while Arctic
high pressure is pushing into the northern Plains. This has put the
Ohio Valley under weak northerly flow. A weak upper level
disturbance has been working in from the west but hasn`t amounted to
much thanks to some drier air and overall weak dynamics. A fair
amount of sunshine allowed mid afternoon readings to rise into the
low to upper 30s, even top 40 degrees across the south. Clouds are
now quickly spreading east across the area, capping our temperature
rise for the day.

Plan on the Arctic high pressure to nose in from the northwest this
evening into tonight bringing another unseasonably cold night. As
colder air begins to surge southward, the cloud layer will become
more within the DGZ. Thus, scattered light snow showers or flurries
will remain possible through the evening. Some of this activity will
be diurnally driven, so expecting it to wane somewhat after sunset.
Nothing more than a dusting, if at all, is expected.

The air mass will become increasingly drier overnight, so expecting
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies early then clearing toward sunrise
Friday. Look for lows to range from around 10 degrees across
southern Indiana to mid/upper teens closer to the TN border. This is
contingent on clouds clearing out by late tonight, so if cloud
coverage is higher than anticipated, forecast lows are too cool.

High pressure will be the rule for Friday, bringing a very cold but
mostly to partly sunny day to southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will spill high level clouds
across the area, especially south of the KY parkways. Plan on
readings to top out in the low 20s across the north to the upper 20s
across south-central Kentucky. For comparison, normal highs are in
the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the high is expected to be centered over southern
Ohio which would be an ideal setup for radiational cooling. While
we`ll have light winds, forecast models are suggesting increasing
mid clouds from the west could prevent lows from bottoming out.
There is a good agreement between the 26.12z guidance in this, so
raised lows several degrees. This agrees with some of the gridded
guidance as well. Overall, still plenty cold with lows in the upper
single digits to the north to mid/upper teens across the Lake
Cumberland region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

High pressure should be centered just northeast of the region at the
start of the period, making for a cold start to the day Saturday.
That high will shift east of the region during the day, allowing for
a warmup to begin. With that warmup however also will come more
moisture, making for better rain chances for most of this forecast
period. Deep-layered isentropic lift will begin Saturday night, with
models focusing the best lift and moisture over our northwest
forecast area. Sounding profiles are mixed around the freezing mark,
so have a wintry mix of precip in the forecast as well, mainly over
the northern half of the area Saturday night. Models are trending
toward that focus staying over the northern half of the region
Sunday, closer to a weakening warm frontal boundary and the forcing
it provides. Have kept pops in everywhere, but have the likelies
restricted to along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Then Sunday night a cold front will move through the region. This
front will not clean the region`s moisture out however, nor really
change airmasses much. After a fast-moving high pressure system
scoots by to our north Monday we will return to a southwest flow
aloft and another warming trend. Monday night and Tuesday we will
return to a warm air advection pattern with that moisture already in
place. Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with this
pattern, with perhaps a break Tuesday ahead of a cold front to sweep
through here Tuesday night. 12Z Euro just came in with a much later
solution for rains. Ensemble models are not in as much of an
agreement as well. Means are focused in the correct area, but
standard deviations almost are equal to the mean value, indicating
still quite a bit of uncertainty. Given this new Euro solution and
because of this spread in the ensembles have backed off some on pops
for Monday night and will hope for more unity in the next few model
runs. The GFS and GEM solutions would bring a shot at some thunder
as well and cannot rule out severe weather as well. Have added in
some slight chance thunder for the Tuesday night and Wednesday
period (with the latter giving some credence to the Euro solution).

Latest GFS has a third system moving across our region in the colder
air Wednesday and Wednesday night, ahead of the deep trough well
behind the cold front. 00Z ECMWF is similar but also has even
another vortmax bringing precip Thursday. The 12Z Euro backed off on
this thinking, though again it has slower timing on the event as a
whole. Given the uncertainty, cannot call for a dry period at this
point Wednesday or Thursday. Will go for a blend of model and
guidance temperatures as well that period.

With all this rain in the forecast, have some concerns for flooding.
First is the present snow pack, which has roughly half an inch to
two inches already on the ground waiting to melt. Second, the ground
has a thin layer of frost just underneath the surface and even if
this goes away by next week the ground is still pretty saturated.
This forecast package will have storm total areal average rains of
2-3 inches. As these are averages, there is potential for greater
rains. This much rain likely would call some flooding across the
region. Stay tuned for updates as we fine tune this forecast over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Broken strato-cu with bases mainly VFR will slowly move over the TAF
sites this afternoon. However, drier air and overall weakening of
the system will limit coverage somewhat. As a result, removed VCSH
from TAF but still could not rule a brief snow shower or flurry
though impacts to aviation should be minimal. Confidence in sub-VFR
clouds increases this evening as better/deeper moisture pivots into
central Kentucky associated with fetch from the Great Lakes. Plan on
winds 5 to 10 kts to remain out of the north through the period.
Overnight, stratus could be stuck across the area beneath the low
level inversion, with the highest probability at LEX. Look for
scattering of the clouds between 12-18z Friday as high pressure
moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261713
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1213 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1115 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Bumped up highs across the area a few degrees as sky cover has been
a bit less than anticipated and readings are already in the upper
20s to mid 30s. Snow showers moving in are drying up and radar
returns upstream have noticeably diminished. Trimmed back POPs a bit
and refined some timing. Overall, some conversational snow showers
through the afternoon will be possible. Not expecting more than a
dusting, if at all.

Issued at 845 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated morning POPs to time snow showers moving in from Indiana and
Illinois. As the upper wave passes, the forcing begins to weaken out
and lift isn`t overly impressive. Nonetheless, still expecting
scattered snow showers to cross the entire area, ending northwest to
southeast by early evening. Adjustments were made to sky cover to
account for clear slot ahead of the approaching system and to refine
temperatures this morning per observations. Highs remain on track
from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Light snow, with total accumulations of mostly less than one inch
will end during the predawn hours southeast of a line from Bowling
Green through Richmond, which is located in Madison County. Will let
the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory currently in effect for the Lake
Cumberland Region expire naturally at 430 am.

Arctic high pressure building southwards into Iowa will push much
colder air into the Commonwealth beginning this afternoon. North
winds will freshen up to 10 to 12 mph later today, with
nearly steady or slowing falling afternoon temperatures. Tonight and
Friday will become quite cold as the center of this sprawling high
pressure moves across Illinois. Even with mostly to partly cloudy
skies tonight, lows will fall to into the low teens to around 10.

Forecast soundings hint at steepening lapse rates this afternoon and
still some moisture between 3 and 7 kfeet at temperatures colder
than -12C. Flurries will become likely late this afternoon and
evening, with a chance of scattered snow showers. Any snow showers
should be light enough for scattered totals of just a few tenths of
an inch. Roads in some locations that experience a heavier snow
shower may become briefly white and slick.

With the proximity of high pressure Friday, north winds will become
light. Highs will stay very cold, only rising into the lower to mid
20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 322 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Friday Night through Monday...

Arctic high pressure center to the north will slowly move eastward
across the northern Ohio Valley Friday night and Saturday.  This
will result in a generally quiet weather period from Friday night
through Saturday.  While the weather will be quiet, it will be quite
cold across the region.  Lows Friday night remain quite tricky as
the model guidance is wanting to advect in some higher level
moisture into the region.  This may result in more cloudiness than
the previous forecast indicated and perhaps warmer overnight minimum
temperatures.  For now have gone with the RawBlend guidance and cut
it by a few degrees.  This results in near zero readings across our
far north with mainly single digit readings north of the WK/BG
Parkways...with lower teens south.  Temperatures should rebound a
bit on Saturday with highs rising to near 32 in the north with
mid-upper 30s down along the KY/TN border region.

By Saturday night, the first in a series of mid-level waves will
move in from the west.  An increasing southerly flow ahead of this
wave will allow temperatures to bottom out in the middle of the
night, but then start to rise toward morning.  Leading edge of
precipitation should make it into our far western and northwestern
counties late Saturday night.  Initial precipitation type still
looks to be more of a wintry mix at this time.  As the day wears on
Sunday, the increasing southerly flow in the low-levels will allow
temperatures to warm above freezing resulting in precipitation going
over to plain rain.  Rain looks to continue into Sunday night and
Monday.  With colder air pushing back in late Sunday night, the
precipitation may change back over to a wintry mix...especially
across our northern sections.  Precipitation should diminish in
coverage during the day on Monday, with the highest chances down
across the south.  This will be a short precipitation reprieve as
the next wave approaches by Monday night.

Highs Sunday look to warm into the upper 30s to around 40 in the
north with mid-upper 40s across far southern KY.  Lows Sunday night
look to cool into the upper 20s to the lower 30s in the north with
mainly low-mid 30s across the south.  Highs on Monday will range
from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in the far south.

Monday Night through Wednesday...

By late Monday night, the global models are in agreement with
increasing the ridging across the SE US in response to a deepening
trough over the desert southwest.   The 26/00Z operational GFS and
European models are general agreement with this configuration and
show a surface wave moving from the Plains northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes.  The ensemble solutions are generally similar
here as well with this pattern.  As the surface low pushes toward
our region, it is likely that a stronger south to southwesterly flow
will develop and pump both moisture and added warmth into our area.
The moisture and warmth will result in moderate to occasionally
heavy rainfall over our from Tuesday through early Wednesday.  Some
weak instability looks increasingly likely, so some thunderstorm
activity can not be ruled out.

Model QPFs continue to be wide ranging in both amounts and
placement.  The Euro solutions of late generally show 2-3 inch
rainfall amounts across the region during the middle of next week.
The GFS appears to be suffering from some convective feedback issues
as it was painting some 6+ inch amounts across the state.  Even if
the lower amounts from the Euro were to verify, these QPF amounts,
combined with snowmelt and already saturated ground, may result in
hydrologic issues across the region, including localized flooding
and rapid rises on area creeks and streams.  This will be something
to watch over the next several days.

Temperatures will be challenging depending on the extent of snowpack
and the strength of the southerly flow.  The latest model solutions
are a little more aggressive suggesting that lower 60s may penetrate
into southern KY by Tuesday afternoon.  Overall, that seems
reasonable, given the upper level pattern.  However, we plan to go a
bit more conservative with that since there continues to be
fluctuations in the northward extent of warmth in the last several
model runs.  For now, plan on pushing temps solidly into the 40s for
Wednesday with mid-upper 50s across southern KY.  The relative
warmth will be brief as colder air will work back in beginning
Wednesday with highs cooling back into the lower 40s in the north
with upper 40s in the south.  The core of the colder air looks to
arrive by Thursday and continue into the weekend as another Arctic
high drops into the central US.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Broken strato-cu with bases mainly VFR will slowly move over the TAF
sites this afternoon. However, drier air and overall weakening of
the system will limit coverage somewhat. As a result, removed VCSH
from TAF but still could not rule a brief snow shower or flurry
though impacts to aviation should be minimal. Confidence in sub-VFR
clouds increases this evening as better/deeper moisture pivots into
central Kentucky associated with fetch from the Great Lakes. Plan on
winds 5 to 10 kts to remain out of the north through the period.
Overnight, stratus could be stuck across the area beneath the low
level inversion, with the highest probability at LEX. Look for
scattering of the clouds between 12-18z Friday as high pressure
moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261713
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1213 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1115 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Bumped up highs across the area a few degrees as sky cover has been
a bit less than anticipated and readings are already in the upper
20s to mid 30s. Snow showers moving in are drying up and radar
returns upstream have noticeably diminished. Trimmed back POPs a bit
and refined some timing. Overall, some conversational snow showers
through the afternoon will be possible. Not expecting more than a
dusting, if at all.

Issued at 845 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated morning POPs to time snow showers moving in from Indiana and
Illinois. As the upper wave passes, the forcing begins to weaken out
and lift isn`t overly impressive. Nonetheless, still expecting
scattered snow showers to cross the entire area, ending northwest to
southeast by early evening. Adjustments were made to sky cover to
account for clear slot ahead of the approaching system and to refine
temperatures this morning per observations. Highs remain on track
from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Light snow, with total accumulations of mostly less than one inch
will end during the predawn hours southeast of a line from Bowling
Green through Richmond, which is located in Madison County. Will let
the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory currently in effect for the Lake
Cumberland Region expire naturally at 430 am.

Arctic high pressure building southwards into Iowa will push much
colder air into the Commonwealth beginning this afternoon. North
winds will freshen up to 10 to 12 mph later today, with
nearly steady or slowing falling afternoon temperatures. Tonight and
Friday will become quite cold as the center of this sprawling high
pressure moves across Illinois. Even with mostly to partly cloudy
skies tonight, lows will fall to into the low teens to around 10.

Forecast soundings hint at steepening lapse rates this afternoon and
still some moisture between 3 and 7 kfeet at temperatures colder
than -12C. Flurries will become likely late this afternoon and
evening, with a chance of scattered snow showers. Any snow showers
should be light enough for scattered totals of just a few tenths of
an inch. Roads in some locations that experience a heavier snow
shower may become briefly white and slick.

With the proximity of high pressure Friday, north winds will become
light. Highs will stay very cold, only rising into the lower to mid
20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 322 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Friday Night through Monday...

Arctic high pressure center to the north will slowly move eastward
across the northern Ohio Valley Friday night and Saturday.  This
will result in a generally quiet weather period from Friday night
through Saturday.  While the weather will be quiet, it will be quite
cold across the region.  Lows Friday night remain quite tricky as
the model guidance is wanting to advect in some higher level
moisture into the region.  This may result in more cloudiness than
the previous forecast indicated and perhaps warmer overnight minimum
temperatures.  For now have gone with the RawBlend guidance and cut
it by a few degrees.  This results in near zero readings across our
far north with mainly single digit readings north of the WK/BG
Parkways...with lower teens south.  Temperatures should rebound a
bit on Saturday with highs rising to near 32 in the north with
mid-upper 30s down along the KY/TN border region.

By Saturday night, the first in a series of mid-level waves will
move in from the west.  An increasing southerly flow ahead of this
wave will allow temperatures to bottom out in the middle of the
night, but then start to rise toward morning.  Leading edge of
precipitation should make it into our far western and northwestern
counties late Saturday night.  Initial precipitation type still
looks to be more of a wintry mix at this time.  As the day wears on
Sunday, the increasing southerly flow in the low-levels will allow
temperatures to warm above freezing resulting in precipitation going
over to plain rain.  Rain looks to continue into Sunday night and
Monday.  With colder air pushing back in late Sunday night, the
precipitation may change back over to a wintry mix...especially
across our northern sections.  Precipitation should diminish in
coverage during the day on Monday, with the highest chances down
across the south.  This will be a short precipitation reprieve as
the next wave approaches by Monday night.

Highs Sunday look to warm into the upper 30s to around 40 in the
north with mid-upper 40s across far southern KY.  Lows Sunday night
look to cool into the upper 20s to the lower 30s in the north with
mainly low-mid 30s across the south.  Highs on Monday will range
from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in the far south.

Monday Night through Wednesday...

By late Monday night, the global models are in agreement with
increasing the ridging across the SE US in response to a deepening
trough over the desert southwest.   The 26/00Z operational GFS and
European models are general agreement with this configuration and
show a surface wave moving from the Plains northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes.  The ensemble solutions are generally similar
here as well with this pattern.  As the surface low pushes toward
our region, it is likely that a stronger south to southwesterly flow
will develop and pump both moisture and added warmth into our area.
The moisture and warmth will result in moderate to occasionally
heavy rainfall over our from Tuesday through early Wednesday.  Some
weak instability looks increasingly likely, so some thunderstorm
activity can not be ruled out.

Model QPFs continue to be wide ranging in both amounts and
placement.  The Euro solutions of late generally show 2-3 inch
rainfall amounts across the region during the middle of next week.
The GFS appears to be suffering from some convective feedback issues
as it was painting some 6+ inch amounts across the state.  Even if
the lower amounts from the Euro were to verify, these QPF amounts,
combined with snowmelt and already saturated ground, may result in
hydrologic issues across the region, including localized flooding
and rapid rises on area creeks and streams.  This will be something
to watch over the next several days.

Temperatures will be challenging depending on the extent of snowpack
and the strength of the southerly flow.  The latest model solutions
are a little more aggressive suggesting that lower 60s may penetrate
into southern KY by Tuesday afternoon.  Overall, that seems
reasonable, given the upper level pattern.  However, we plan to go a
bit more conservative with that since there continues to be
fluctuations in the northward extent of warmth in the last several
model runs.  For now, plan on pushing temps solidly into the 40s for
Wednesday with mid-upper 50s across southern KY.  The relative
warmth will be brief as colder air will work back in beginning
Wednesday with highs cooling back into the lower 40s in the north
with upper 40s in the south.  The core of the colder air looks to
arrive by Thursday and continue into the weekend as another Arctic
high drops into the central US.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Broken strato-cu with bases mainly VFR will slowly move over the TAF
sites this afternoon. However, drier air and overall weakening of
the system will limit coverage somewhat. As a result, removed VCSH
from TAF but still could not rule a brief snow shower or flurry
though impacts to aviation should be minimal. Confidence in sub-VFR
clouds increases this evening as better/deeper moisture pivots into
central Kentucky associated with fetch from the Great Lakes. Plan on
winds 5 to 10 kts to remain out of the north through the period.
Overnight, stratus could be stuck across the area beneath the low
level inversion, with the highest probability at LEX. Look for
scattering of the clouds between 12-18z Friday as high pressure
moves in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261615
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1115 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1115 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Bumped up highs across the area a few degrees as sky cover has been
a bit less than anticipated and readings are already in the upper
20s to mid 30s. Snow showers moving in are drying up and radar
returns upstream have noticeably diminished. Trimmed back POPs a bit
and refined some timing. Overall, some conversational snow showers
through the afternoon will be possible. Not expecting more than a
dusting, if at all.

Issued at 845 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated morning POPs to time snow showers moving in from Indiana and
Illinois. As the upper wave passes, the forcing begins to weaken out
and lift isn`t overly impressive. Nonetheless, still expecting
scattered snow showers to cross the entire area, ending northwest to
southeast by early evening. Adjustments were made to sky cover to
account for clear slot ahead of the approaching system and to refine
temperatures this morning per observations. Highs remain on track
from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Light snow, with total accumulations of mostly less than one inch
will end during the predawn hours southeast of a line from Bowling
Green through Richmond, which is located in Madison County. Will let
the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory currently in effect for the Lake
Cumberland Region expire naturally at 430 am.

Arctic high pressure building southwards into Iowa will push much
colder air into the Commonwealth beginning this afternoon. North
winds will freshen up to 10 to 12 mph later today, with
nearly steady or slowing falling afternoon temperatures. Tonight and
Friday will become quite cold as the center of this sprawling high
pressure moves across Illinois. Even with mostly to partly cloudy
skies tonight, lows will fall to into the low teens to around 10.

Forecast soundings hint at steepening lapse rates this afternoon and
still some moisture between 3 and 7 kfeet at temperatures colder
than -12C. Flurries will become likely late this afternoon and
evening, with a chance of scattered snow showers. Any snow showers
should be light enough for scattered totals of just a few tenths of
an inch. Roads in some locations that experience a heavier snow
shower may become briefly white and slick.

With the proximity of high pressure Friday, north winds will become
light. Highs will stay very cold, only rising into the lower to mid
20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 322 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Friday Night through Monday...

Arctic high pressure center to the north will slowly move eastward
across the northern Ohio Valley Friday night and Saturday.  This
will result in a generally quiet weather period from Friday night
through Saturday.  While the weather will be quiet, it will be quite
cold across the region.  Lows Friday night remain quite tricky as
the model guidance is wanting to advect in some higher level
moisture into the region.  This may result in more cloudiness than
the previous forecast indicated and perhaps warmer overnight minimum
temperatures.  For now have gone with the RawBlend guidance and cut
it by a few degrees.  This results in near zero readings across our
far north with mainly single digit readings north of the WK/BG
Parkways...with lower teens south.  Temperatures should rebound a
bit on Saturday with highs rising to near 32 in the north with
mid-upper 30s down along the KY/TN border region.

By Saturday night, the first in a series of mid-level waves will
move in from the west.  An increasing southerly flow ahead of this
wave will allow temperatures to bottom out in the middle of the
night, but then start to rise toward morning.  Leading edge of
precipitation should make it into our far western and northwestern
counties late Saturday night.  Initial precipitation type still
looks to be more of a wintry mix at this time.  As the day wears on
Sunday, the increasing southerly flow in the low-levels will allow
temperatures to warm above freezing resulting in precipitation going
over to plain rain.  Rain looks to continue into Sunday night and
Monday.  With colder air pushing back in late Sunday night, the
precipitation may change back over to a wintry mix...especially
across our northern sections.  Precipitation should diminish in
coverage during the day on Monday, with the highest chances down
across the south.  This will be a short precipitation reprieve as
the next wave approaches by Monday night.

Highs Sunday look to warm into the upper 30s to around 40 in the
north with mid-upper 40s across far southern KY.  Lows Sunday night
look to cool into the upper 20s to the lower 30s in the north with
mainly low-mid 30s across the south.  Highs on Monday will range
from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in the far south.

Monday Night through Wednesday...

By late Monday night, the global models are in agreement with
increasing the ridging across the SE US in response to a deepening
trough over the desert southwest.   The 26/00Z operational GFS and
European models are general agreement with this configuration and
show a surface wave moving from the Plains northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes.  The ensemble solutions are generally similar
here as well with this pattern.  As the surface low pushes toward
our region, it is likely that a stronger south to southwesterly flow
will develop and pump both moisture and added warmth into our area.
The moisture and warmth will result in moderate to occasionally
heavy rainfall over our from Tuesday through early Wednesday.  Some
weak instability looks increasingly likely, so some thunderstorm
activity can not be ruled out.

Model QPFs continue to be wide ranging in both amounts and
placement.  The Euro solutions of late generally show 2-3 inch
rainfall amounts across the region during the middle of next week.
The GFS appears to be suffering from some convective feedback issues
as it was painting some 6+ inch amounts across the state.  Even if
the lower amounts from the Euro were to verify, these QPF amounts,
combined with snowmelt and already saturated ground, may result in
hydrologic issues across the region, including localized flooding
and rapid rises on area creeks and streams.  This will be something
to watch over the next several days.

Temperatures will be challenging depending on the extent of snowpack
and the strength of the southerly flow.  The latest model solutions
are a little more aggressive suggesting that lower 60s may penetrate
into southern KY by Tuesday afternoon.  Overall, that seems
reasonable, given the upper level pattern.  However, we plan to go a
bit more conservative with that since there continues to be
fluctuations in the northward extent of warmth in the last several
model runs.  For now, plan on pushing temps solidly into the 40s for
Wednesday with mid-upper 50s across southern KY.  The relative
warmth will be brief as colder air will work back in beginning
Wednesday with highs cooling back into the lower 40s in the north
with upper 40s in the south.  The core of the colder air looks to
arrive by Thursday and continue into the weekend as another Arctic
high drops into the central US.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 602 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Ceilings will remain VFR until colder air begins to filter in from
north to south during the late morning hours Thursday.

Light north winds through dawn will increase in speed to around 10kt
by mid afternoon and continue at this rate from the north northwest
through the late evening hours.

Scattered snow flurries will begin during the early afternoon hours
Thursday and may increase to some scattered light snow showers
during the evening hours. Ceilings will fall to just below the
VFR/MVFR threshold by late Thursday morning, and continue mostly
cloudy through late evening. Feel that cold air advection and low
level moisture will mean a continuation of MVFR ceilings through
early Friday. Skies will begin to clear towards dawn Friday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261615
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1115 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1115 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Bumped up highs across the area a few degrees as sky cover has been
a bit less than anticipated and readings are already in the upper
20s to mid 30s. Snow showers moving in are drying up and radar
returns upstream have noticeably diminished. Trimmed back POPs a bit
and refined some timing. Overall, some conversational snow showers
through the afternoon will be possible. Not expecting more than a
dusting, if at all.

Issued at 845 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated morning POPs to time snow showers moving in from Indiana and
Illinois. As the upper wave passes, the forcing begins to weaken out
and lift isn`t overly impressive. Nonetheless, still expecting
scattered snow showers to cross the entire area, ending northwest to
southeast by early evening. Adjustments were made to sky cover to
account for clear slot ahead of the approaching system and to refine
temperatures this morning per observations. Highs remain on track
from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Light snow, with total accumulations of mostly less than one inch
will end during the predawn hours southeast of a line from Bowling
Green through Richmond, which is located in Madison County. Will let
the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory currently in effect for the Lake
Cumberland Region expire naturally at 430 am.

Arctic high pressure building southwards into Iowa will push much
colder air into the Commonwealth beginning this afternoon. North
winds will freshen up to 10 to 12 mph later today, with
nearly steady or slowing falling afternoon temperatures. Tonight and
Friday will become quite cold as the center of this sprawling high
pressure moves across Illinois. Even with mostly to partly cloudy
skies tonight, lows will fall to into the low teens to around 10.

Forecast soundings hint at steepening lapse rates this afternoon and
still some moisture between 3 and 7 kfeet at temperatures colder
than -12C. Flurries will become likely late this afternoon and
evening, with a chance of scattered snow showers. Any snow showers
should be light enough for scattered totals of just a few tenths of
an inch. Roads in some locations that experience a heavier snow
shower may become briefly white and slick.

With the proximity of high pressure Friday, north winds will become
light. Highs will stay very cold, only rising into the lower to mid
20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 322 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Friday Night through Monday...

Arctic high pressure center to the north will slowly move eastward
across the northern Ohio Valley Friday night and Saturday.  This
will result in a generally quiet weather period from Friday night
through Saturday.  While the weather will be quiet, it will be quite
cold across the region.  Lows Friday night remain quite tricky as
the model guidance is wanting to advect in some higher level
moisture into the region.  This may result in more cloudiness than
the previous forecast indicated and perhaps warmer overnight minimum
temperatures.  For now have gone with the RawBlend guidance and cut
it by a few degrees.  This results in near zero readings across our
far north with mainly single digit readings north of the WK/BG
Parkways...with lower teens south.  Temperatures should rebound a
bit on Saturday with highs rising to near 32 in the north with
mid-upper 30s down along the KY/TN border region.

By Saturday night, the first in a series of mid-level waves will
move in from the west.  An increasing southerly flow ahead of this
wave will allow temperatures to bottom out in the middle of the
night, but then start to rise toward morning.  Leading edge of
precipitation should make it into our far western and northwestern
counties late Saturday night.  Initial precipitation type still
looks to be more of a wintry mix at this time.  As the day wears on
Sunday, the increasing southerly flow in the low-levels will allow
temperatures to warm above freezing resulting in precipitation going
over to plain rain.  Rain looks to continue into Sunday night and
Monday.  With colder air pushing back in late Sunday night, the
precipitation may change back over to a wintry mix...especially
across our northern sections.  Precipitation should diminish in
coverage during the day on Monday, with the highest chances down
across the south.  This will be a short precipitation reprieve as
the next wave approaches by Monday night.

Highs Sunday look to warm into the upper 30s to around 40 in the
north with mid-upper 40s across far southern KY.  Lows Sunday night
look to cool into the upper 20s to the lower 30s in the north with
mainly low-mid 30s across the south.  Highs on Monday will range
from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in the far south.

Monday Night through Wednesday...

By late Monday night, the global models are in agreement with
increasing the ridging across the SE US in response to a deepening
trough over the desert southwest.   The 26/00Z operational GFS and
European models are general agreement with this configuration and
show a surface wave moving from the Plains northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes.  The ensemble solutions are generally similar
here as well with this pattern.  As the surface low pushes toward
our region, it is likely that a stronger south to southwesterly flow
will develop and pump both moisture and added warmth into our area.
The moisture and warmth will result in moderate to occasionally
heavy rainfall over our from Tuesday through early Wednesday.  Some
weak instability looks increasingly likely, so some thunderstorm
activity can not be ruled out.

Model QPFs continue to be wide ranging in both amounts and
placement.  The Euro solutions of late generally show 2-3 inch
rainfall amounts across the region during the middle of next week.
The GFS appears to be suffering from some convective feedback issues
as it was painting some 6+ inch amounts across the state.  Even if
the lower amounts from the Euro were to verify, these QPF amounts,
combined with snowmelt and already saturated ground, may result in
hydrologic issues across the region, including localized flooding
and rapid rises on area creeks and streams.  This will be something
to watch over the next several days.

Temperatures will be challenging depending on the extent of snowpack
and the strength of the southerly flow.  The latest model solutions
are a little more aggressive suggesting that lower 60s may penetrate
into southern KY by Tuesday afternoon.  Overall, that seems
reasonable, given the upper level pattern.  However, we plan to go a
bit more conservative with that since there continues to be
fluctuations in the northward extent of warmth in the last several
model runs.  For now, plan on pushing temps solidly into the 40s for
Wednesday with mid-upper 50s across southern KY.  The relative
warmth will be brief as colder air will work back in beginning
Wednesday with highs cooling back into the lower 40s in the north
with upper 40s in the south.  The core of the colder air looks to
arrive by Thursday and continue into the weekend as another Arctic
high drops into the central US.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 602 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Ceilings will remain VFR until colder air begins to filter in from
north to south during the late morning hours Thursday.

Light north winds through dawn will increase in speed to around 10kt
by mid afternoon and continue at this rate from the north northwest
through the late evening hours.

Scattered snow flurries will begin during the early afternoon hours
Thursday and may increase to some scattered light snow showers
during the evening hours. Ceilings will fall to just below the
VFR/MVFR threshold by late Thursday morning, and continue mostly
cloudy through late evening. Feel that cold air advection and low
level moisture will mean a continuation of MVFR ceilings through
early Friday. Skies will begin to clear towards dawn Friday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261615
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1115 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1115 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Bumped up highs across the area a few degrees as sky cover has been
a bit less than anticipated and readings are already in the upper
20s to mid 30s. Snow showers moving in are drying up and radar
returns upstream have noticeably diminished. Trimmed back POPs a bit
and refined some timing. Overall, some conversational snow showers
through the afternoon will be possible. Not expecting more than a
dusting, if at all.

Issued at 845 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated morning POPs to time snow showers moving in from Indiana and
Illinois. As the upper wave passes, the forcing begins to weaken out
and lift isn`t overly impressive. Nonetheless, still expecting
scattered snow showers to cross the entire area, ending northwest to
southeast by early evening. Adjustments were made to sky cover to
account for clear slot ahead of the approaching system and to refine
temperatures this morning per observations. Highs remain on track
from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Light snow, with total accumulations of mostly less than one inch
will end during the predawn hours southeast of a line from Bowling
Green through Richmond, which is located in Madison County. Will let
the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory currently in effect for the Lake
Cumberland Region expire naturally at 430 am.

Arctic high pressure building southwards into Iowa will push much
colder air into the Commonwealth beginning this afternoon. North
winds will freshen up to 10 to 12 mph later today, with
nearly steady or slowing falling afternoon temperatures. Tonight and
Friday will become quite cold as the center of this sprawling high
pressure moves across Illinois. Even with mostly to partly cloudy
skies tonight, lows will fall to into the low teens to around 10.

Forecast soundings hint at steepening lapse rates this afternoon and
still some moisture between 3 and 7 kfeet at temperatures colder
than -12C. Flurries will become likely late this afternoon and
evening, with a chance of scattered snow showers. Any snow showers
should be light enough for scattered totals of just a few tenths of
an inch. Roads in some locations that experience a heavier snow
shower may become briefly white and slick.

With the proximity of high pressure Friday, north winds will become
light. Highs will stay very cold, only rising into the lower to mid
20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 322 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Friday Night through Monday...

Arctic high pressure center to the north will slowly move eastward
across the northern Ohio Valley Friday night and Saturday.  This
will result in a generally quiet weather period from Friday night
through Saturday.  While the weather will be quiet, it will be quite
cold across the region.  Lows Friday night remain quite tricky as
the model guidance is wanting to advect in some higher level
moisture into the region.  This may result in more cloudiness than
the previous forecast indicated and perhaps warmer overnight minimum
temperatures.  For now have gone with the RawBlend guidance and cut
it by a few degrees.  This results in near zero readings across our
far north with mainly single digit readings north of the WK/BG
Parkways...with lower teens south.  Temperatures should rebound a
bit on Saturday with highs rising to near 32 in the north with
mid-upper 30s down along the KY/TN border region.

By Saturday night, the first in a series of mid-level waves will
move in from the west.  An increasing southerly flow ahead of this
wave will allow temperatures to bottom out in the middle of the
night, but then start to rise toward morning.  Leading edge of
precipitation should make it into our far western and northwestern
counties late Saturday night.  Initial precipitation type still
looks to be more of a wintry mix at this time.  As the day wears on
Sunday, the increasing southerly flow in the low-levels will allow
temperatures to warm above freezing resulting in precipitation going
over to plain rain.  Rain looks to continue into Sunday night and
Monday.  With colder air pushing back in late Sunday night, the
precipitation may change back over to a wintry mix...especially
across our northern sections.  Precipitation should diminish in
coverage during the day on Monday, with the highest chances down
across the south.  This will be a short precipitation reprieve as
the next wave approaches by Monday night.

Highs Sunday look to warm into the upper 30s to around 40 in the
north with mid-upper 40s across far southern KY.  Lows Sunday night
look to cool into the upper 20s to the lower 30s in the north with
mainly low-mid 30s across the south.  Highs on Monday will range
from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in the far south.

Monday Night through Wednesday...

By late Monday night, the global models are in agreement with
increasing the ridging across the SE US in response to a deepening
trough over the desert southwest.   The 26/00Z operational GFS and
European models are general agreement with this configuration and
show a surface wave moving from the Plains northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes.  The ensemble solutions are generally similar
here as well with this pattern.  As the surface low pushes toward
our region, it is likely that a stronger south to southwesterly flow
will develop and pump both moisture and added warmth into our area.
The moisture and warmth will result in moderate to occasionally
heavy rainfall over our from Tuesday through early Wednesday.  Some
weak instability looks increasingly likely, so some thunderstorm
activity can not be ruled out.

Model QPFs continue to be wide ranging in both amounts and
placement.  The Euro solutions of late generally show 2-3 inch
rainfall amounts across the region during the middle of next week.
The GFS appears to be suffering from some convective feedback issues
as it was painting some 6+ inch amounts across the state.  Even if
the lower amounts from the Euro were to verify, these QPF amounts,
combined with snowmelt and already saturated ground, may result in
hydrologic issues across the region, including localized flooding
and rapid rises on area creeks and streams.  This will be something
to watch over the next several days.

Temperatures will be challenging depending on the extent of snowpack
and the strength of the southerly flow.  The latest model solutions
are a little more aggressive suggesting that lower 60s may penetrate
into southern KY by Tuesday afternoon.  Overall, that seems
reasonable, given the upper level pattern.  However, we plan to go a
bit more conservative with that since there continues to be
fluctuations in the northward extent of warmth in the last several
model runs.  For now, plan on pushing temps solidly into the 40s for
Wednesday with mid-upper 50s across southern KY.  The relative
warmth will be brief as colder air will work back in beginning
Wednesday with highs cooling back into the lower 40s in the north
with upper 40s in the south.  The core of the colder air looks to
arrive by Thursday and continue into the weekend as another Arctic
high drops into the central US.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 602 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Ceilings will remain VFR until colder air begins to filter in from
north to south during the late morning hours Thursday.

Light north winds through dawn will increase in speed to around 10kt
by mid afternoon and continue at this rate from the north northwest
through the late evening hours.

Scattered snow flurries will begin during the early afternoon hours
Thursday and may increase to some scattered light snow showers
during the evening hours. Ceilings will fall to just below the
VFR/MVFR threshold by late Thursday morning, and continue mostly
cloudy through late evening. Feel that cold air advection and low
level moisture will mean a continuation of MVFR ceilings through
early Friday. Skies will begin to clear towards dawn Friday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261348
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
848 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated morning POPs to time snow showers moving in from Indiana and
Illinois. As the upper wave passes, the forcing/lift begins to
weaken out and isn`t overly impressive. Nonetheless, still
expecting scattered snow showers to cross the entire area, ending
northwest to southeast by early evening. Adjustments were made to
sky cover to account for clear slot ahead of the approaching
system and to refine temperatures this morning per observations.
Highs remain on track from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Light snow, with total accumulations of mostly less than one inch
will end during the predawn hours southeast of a line from Bowling
Green through Richmond, which is located in Madison County. Will let
the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory currently in effect for the Lake
Cumberland Region expire naturally at 430 am.

Arctic high pressure building southwards into Iowa will push much
colder air into the Commonwealth beginning this afternoon. North
winds will freshen up to 10 to 12 mph later today, with
nearly steady or slowing falling afternoon temperatures. Tonight and
Friday will become quite cold as the center of this sprawling high
pressure moves across Illinois. Even with mostly to partly cloudy
skies tonight, lows will fall to into the low teens to around 10.

Forecast soundings hint at steepening lapse rates this afternoon and
still some moisture between 3 and 7 kfeet at temperatures colder
than -12C. Flurries will become likely late this afternoon and
evening, with a chance of scattered snow showers. Any snow showers
should be light enough for scattered totals of just a few tenths of
an inch. Roads in some locations that experience a heavier snow
shower may become briefly white and slick.

With the proximity of high pressure Friday, north winds will become
light. Highs will stay very cold, only rising into the lower to mid
20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 322 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Friday Night through Monday...

Arctic high pressure center to the north will slowly move eastward
across the northern Ohio Valley Friday night and Saturday.  This
will result in a generally quiet weather period from Friday night
through Saturday.  While the weather will be quiet, it will be quite
cold across the region.  Lows Friday night remain quite tricky as
the model guidance is wanting to advect in some higher level
moisture into the region.  This may result in more cloudiness than
the previous forecast indicated and perhaps warmer overnight minimum
temperatures.  For now have gone with the RawBlend guidance and cut
it by a few degrees.  This results in near zero readings across our
far north with mainly single digit readings north of the WK/BG
Parkways...with lower teens south.  Temperatures should rebound a
bit on Saturday with highs rising to near 32 in the north with
mid-upper 30s down along the KY/TN border region.

By Saturday night, the first in a series of mid-level waves will
move in from the west.  An increasing southerly flow ahead of this
wave will allow temperatures to bottom out in the middle of the
night, but then start to rise toward morning.  Leading edge of
precipitation should make it into our far western and northwestern
counties late Saturday night.  Initial precipitation type still
looks to be more of a wintry mix at this time.  As the day wears on
Sunday, the increasing southerly flow in the low-levels will allow
temperatures to warm above freezing resulting in precipitation going
over to plain rain.  Rain looks to continue into Sunday night and
Monday.  With colder air pushing back in late Sunday night, the
precipitation may change back over to a wintry mix...especially
across our northern sections.  Precipitation should diminish in
coverage during the day on Monday, with the highest chances down
across the south.  This will be a short precipitation reprieve as
the next wave approaches by Monday night.

Highs Sunday look to warm into the upper 30s to around 40 in the
north with mid-upper 40s across far southern KY.  Lows Sunday night
look to cool into the upper 20s to the lower 30s in the north with
mainly low-mid 30s across the south.  Highs on Monday will range
from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in the far south.

Monday Night through Wednesday...

By late Monday night, the global models are in agreement with
increasing the ridging across the SE US in response to a deepening
trough over the desert southwest.   The 26/00Z operational GFS and
European models are general agreement with this configuration and
show a surface wave moving from the Plains northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes.  The ensemble solutions are generally similar
here as well with this pattern.  As the surface low pushes toward
our region, it is likely that a stronger south to southwesterly flow
will develop and pump both moisture and added warmth into our area.
The moisture and warmth will result in moderate to occasionally
heavy rainfall over our from Tuesday through early Wednesday.  Some
weak instability looks increasingly likely, so some thunderstorm
activity can not be ruled out.

Model QPFs continue to be wide ranging in both amounts and
placement.  The Euro solutions of late generally show 2-3 inch
rainfall amounts across the region during the middle of next week.
The GFS appears to be suffering from some convective feedback issues
as it was painting some 6+ inch amounts across the state.  Even if
the lower amounts from the Euro were to verify, these QPF amounts,
combined with snowmelt and already saturated ground, may result in
hydrologic issues across the region, including localized flooding
and rapid rises on area creeks and streams.  This will be something
to watch over the next several days.

Temperatures will be challenging depending on the extent of snowpack
and the strength of the southerly flow.  The latest model solutions
are a little more aggressive suggesting that lower 60s may penetrate
into southern KY by Tuesday afternoon.  Overall, that seems
reasonable, given the upper level pattern.  However, we plan to go a
bit more conservative with that since there continues to be
fluctuations in the northward extent of warmth in the last several
model runs.  For now, plan on pushing temps solidly into the 40s for
Wednesday with mid-upper 50s across southern KY.  The relative
warmth will be brief as colder air will work back in beginning
Wednesday with highs cooling back into the lower 40s in the north
with upper 40s in the south.  The core of the colder air looks to
arrive by Thursday and continue into the weekend as another Arctic
high drops into the central US.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 602 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Ceilings will remain VFR until colder air begins to filter in from
north to south during the late morning hours Thursday.

Light north winds through dawn will increase in speed to around 10kt
by mid afternoon and continue at this rate from the north northwest
through the late evening hours.

Scattered snow flurries will begin during the early afternoon hours
Thursday and may increase to some scattered light snow showers
during the evening hours. Ceilings will fall to just below the
VFR/MVFR threshold by late Thursday morning, and continue mostly
cloudy through late evening. Feel that cold air advection and low
level moisture will mean a continuation of MVFR ceilings through
early Friday. Skies will begin to clear towards dawn Friday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261348
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
848 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Updated morning POPs to time snow showers moving in from Indiana and
Illinois. As the upper wave passes, the forcing/lift begins to
weaken out and isn`t overly impressive. Nonetheless, still
expecting scattered snow showers to cross the entire area, ending
northwest to southeast by early evening. Adjustments were made to
sky cover to account for clear slot ahead of the approaching
system and to refine temperatures this morning per observations.
Highs remain on track from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Light snow, with total accumulations of mostly less than one inch
will end during the predawn hours southeast of a line from Bowling
Green through Richmond, which is located in Madison County. Will let
the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory currently in effect for the Lake
Cumberland Region expire naturally at 430 am.

Arctic high pressure building southwards into Iowa will push much
colder air into the Commonwealth beginning this afternoon. North
winds will freshen up to 10 to 12 mph later today, with
nearly steady or slowing falling afternoon temperatures. Tonight and
Friday will become quite cold as the center of this sprawling high
pressure moves across Illinois. Even with mostly to partly cloudy
skies tonight, lows will fall to into the low teens to around 10.

Forecast soundings hint at steepening lapse rates this afternoon and
still some moisture between 3 and 7 kfeet at temperatures colder
than -12C. Flurries will become likely late this afternoon and
evening, with a chance of scattered snow showers. Any snow showers
should be light enough for scattered totals of just a few tenths of
an inch. Roads in some locations that experience a heavier snow
shower may become briefly white and slick.

With the proximity of high pressure Friday, north winds will become
light. Highs will stay very cold, only rising into the lower to mid
20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 322 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Friday Night through Monday...

Arctic high pressure center to the north will slowly move eastward
across the northern Ohio Valley Friday night and Saturday.  This
will result in a generally quiet weather period from Friday night
through Saturday.  While the weather will be quiet, it will be quite
cold across the region.  Lows Friday night remain quite tricky as
the model guidance is wanting to advect in some higher level
moisture into the region.  This may result in more cloudiness than
the previous forecast indicated and perhaps warmer overnight minimum
temperatures.  For now have gone with the RawBlend guidance and cut
it by a few degrees.  This results in near zero readings across our
far north with mainly single digit readings north of the WK/BG
Parkways...with lower teens south.  Temperatures should rebound a
bit on Saturday with highs rising to near 32 in the north with
mid-upper 30s down along the KY/TN border region.

By Saturday night, the first in a series of mid-level waves will
move in from the west.  An increasing southerly flow ahead of this
wave will allow temperatures to bottom out in the middle of the
night, but then start to rise toward morning.  Leading edge of
precipitation should make it into our far western and northwestern
counties late Saturday night.  Initial precipitation type still
looks to be more of a wintry mix at this time.  As the day wears on
Sunday, the increasing southerly flow in the low-levels will allow
temperatures to warm above freezing resulting in precipitation going
over to plain rain.  Rain looks to continue into Sunday night and
Monday.  With colder air pushing back in late Sunday night, the
precipitation may change back over to a wintry mix...especially
across our northern sections.  Precipitation should diminish in
coverage during the day on Monday, with the highest chances down
across the south.  This will be a short precipitation reprieve as
the next wave approaches by Monday night.

Highs Sunday look to warm into the upper 30s to around 40 in the
north with mid-upper 40s across far southern KY.  Lows Sunday night
look to cool into the upper 20s to the lower 30s in the north with
mainly low-mid 30s across the south.  Highs on Monday will range
from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in the far south.

Monday Night through Wednesday...

By late Monday night, the global models are in agreement with
increasing the ridging across the SE US in response to a deepening
trough over the desert southwest.   The 26/00Z operational GFS and
European models are general agreement with this configuration and
show a surface wave moving from the Plains northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes.  The ensemble solutions are generally similar
here as well with this pattern.  As the surface low pushes toward
our region, it is likely that a stronger south to southwesterly flow
will develop and pump both moisture and added warmth into our area.
The moisture and warmth will result in moderate to occasionally
heavy rainfall over our from Tuesday through early Wednesday.  Some
weak instability looks increasingly likely, so some thunderstorm
activity can not be ruled out.

Model QPFs continue to be wide ranging in both amounts and
placement.  The Euro solutions of late generally show 2-3 inch
rainfall amounts across the region during the middle of next week.
The GFS appears to be suffering from some convective feedback issues
as it was painting some 6+ inch amounts across the state.  Even if
the lower amounts from the Euro were to verify, these QPF amounts,
combined with snowmelt and already saturated ground, may result in
hydrologic issues across the region, including localized flooding
and rapid rises on area creeks and streams.  This will be something
to watch over the next several days.

Temperatures will be challenging depending on the extent of snowpack
and the strength of the southerly flow.  The latest model solutions
are a little more aggressive suggesting that lower 60s may penetrate
into southern KY by Tuesday afternoon.  Overall, that seems
reasonable, given the upper level pattern.  However, we plan to go a
bit more conservative with that since there continues to be
fluctuations in the northward extent of warmth in the last several
model runs.  For now, plan on pushing temps solidly into the 40s for
Wednesday with mid-upper 50s across southern KY.  The relative
warmth will be brief as colder air will work back in beginning
Wednesday with highs cooling back into the lower 40s in the north
with upper 40s in the south.  The core of the colder air looks to
arrive by Thursday and continue into the weekend as another Arctic
high drops into the central US.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 602 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

Ceilings will remain VFR until colder air begins to filter in from
north to south during the late morning hours Thursday.

Light north winds through dawn will increase in speed to around 10kt
by mid afternoon and continue at this rate from the north northwest
through the late evening hours.

Scattered snow flurries will begin during the early afternoon hours
Thursday and may increase to some scattered light snow showers
during the evening hours. Ceilings will fall to just below the
VFR/MVFR threshold by late Thursday morning, and continue mostly
cloudy through late evening. Feel that cold air advection and low
level moisture will mean a continuation of MVFR ceilings through
early Friday. Skies will begin to clear towards dawn Friday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD






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