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000
FXUS63 KLMK 290706
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWED A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHILE A BROAD CLOSED LOW
WAS ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY LIED IN BETWEEN...AS OBSERVED BY IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHICH SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEEPER
MOISTURE...CLOUDY SKIES...AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE
TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS TRACK TOWARD EACH OTHER. THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 THIS AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES
EASTWARD. OVERALL...DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK WITH THESE SYSTEMS BUT
A WEAKLY OR UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH PEAK HEATING GENERATING
POCKETS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BREAK OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON
SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

NEAR TERM HI-RES MODELS SHOW HIGH AGREEMENT SPATIALLY...TEMPORALLY
AND RUN TO RUN WHICH LEADS TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
TODAY. THE HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS BREAKING OUT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. THE NSSL AND SPC WRF SOLUTIONS OFFER
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS WELL. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG A
BOWLING GREEN TO FRANKFORT LINE AND WESTWARD...ALONG THE AXIS OF
GREATER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED
CUMULUS AS WELL AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON AT TIMES. PLAN ON HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY THAN RECENT DAYS.

EXPECTING A DROP OFF IN PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...THOUGH WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER
DAY FOR PRECIPITATION AS WE`LL HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
OVERALL DYNAMICS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE
SCATTERED...SO KEPT CHANCES IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
ISLD SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  THE GFS IS MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS CONVECTION AND EVEN
THIS NOTORIOUSLY WET MODEL ISN`T SHOWING MUCH PRECIP.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
ARRIVING FOR WED.  MID RANGE MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN DEPICTING THE
MAIN SOURCE FOR FORCING/MOISTURE.  THE GFS INDICATES THE REMNANTS OF
T.S. ERIKA WILL BE THE CAUSE WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL BE THE CAUSE.  EITHER WAY WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS
FOR WED.

TEMPS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMS WITH HIGHS RANGING MAINLY THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR 90 TUES/WED.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS/MIDWEST.  THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AS A RESULT BRINGING TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK (UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS).
ALTHOUGH A CLEAR TRIGGER IS NOT APPARENT, SOME LONG RANGE SIGNALS
SUGGEST A DIRTY RIDGE WITH SUBTLE WAVES MAY CAUSE MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BOTH
THURS/FRI.  THUS WILL HAVE LOW POPS BOTH OF THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LIGHT WIND COMBINED WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL AT BWG/LEX THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MID-
MORNING ALONG WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH BASES 4-5 KFT. THERE
ARE SIGNALS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A STORM
DEVELOPING BY 17-18Z...LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 23-00Z.
THOUGH...EXPECTING LOW COVERAGE WHICH PRECLUDES MENTIONING IN THE
TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........ZBT
LONG TERM.........AMS
AVIATION..........ZBT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 290706
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWED A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHILE A BROAD CLOSED LOW
WAS ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY LIED IN BETWEEN...AS OBSERVED BY IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHICH SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEEPER
MOISTURE...CLOUDY SKIES...AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE
TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS TRACK TOWARD EACH OTHER. THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 THIS AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES
EASTWARD. OVERALL...DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK WITH THESE SYSTEMS BUT
A WEAKLY OR UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH PEAK HEATING GENERATING
POCKETS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BREAK OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON
SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

NEAR TERM HI-RES MODELS SHOW HIGH AGREEMENT SPATIALLY...TEMPORALLY
AND RUN TO RUN WHICH LEADS TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
TODAY. THE HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS BREAKING OUT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. THE NSSL AND SPC WRF SOLUTIONS OFFER
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS WELL. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG A
BOWLING GREEN TO FRANKFORT LINE AND WESTWARD...ALONG THE AXIS OF
GREATER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED
CUMULUS AS WELL AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON AT TIMES. PLAN ON HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY THAN RECENT DAYS.

EXPECTING A DROP OFF IN PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...THOUGH WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER
DAY FOR PRECIPITATION AS WE`LL HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
OVERALL DYNAMICS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE
SCATTERED...SO KEPT CHANCES IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
ISLD SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  THE GFS IS MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS CONVECTION AND EVEN
THIS NOTORIOUSLY WET MODEL ISN`T SHOWING MUCH PRECIP.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
ARRIVING FOR WED.  MID RANGE MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN DEPICTING THE
MAIN SOURCE FOR FORCING/MOISTURE.  THE GFS INDICATES THE REMNANTS OF
T.S. ERIKA WILL BE THE CAUSE WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL BE THE CAUSE.  EITHER WAY WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS
FOR WED.

TEMPS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMS WITH HIGHS RANGING MAINLY THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR 90 TUES/WED.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS/MIDWEST.  THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AS A RESULT BRINGING TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK (UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS).
ALTHOUGH A CLEAR TRIGGER IS NOT APPARENT, SOME LONG RANGE SIGNALS
SUGGEST A DIRTY RIDGE WITH SUBTLE WAVES MAY CAUSE MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BOTH
THURS/FRI.  THUS WILL HAVE LOW POPS BOTH OF THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LIGHT WIND COMBINED WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL AT BWG/LEX THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MID-
MORNING ALONG WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH BASES 4-5 KFT. THERE
ARE SIGNALS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A STORM
DEVELOPING BY 17-18Z...LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 23-00Z.
THOUGH...EXPECTING LOW COVERAGE WHICH PRECLUDES MENTIONING IN THE
TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........ZBT
LONG TERM.........AMS
AVIATION..........ZBT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 290506
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
106 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IN THE NEAR TERM, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO AND THEN COOL INTO THE 70S THIS EVENING.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BEING MUCH MILDER THAN WHAT WE`VE
PREVIOUSLY SEEN.  LOWS SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EVENT WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  TWO AREAS
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOK TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE
TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE, AND DOWN ACROSS OUR SOUTH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING IN.  OVERALL FORCING STILL LOOKS
RATHER LIMITED, BUT COVERAGE OF 15-20% LOOKS REASONABLE AND CURRENT
DATA SUGGESTS THAT FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST.  IT WILL BE A BIT
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S IN THE NORTH WITH
MID-UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.  A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SUNDAY - MONDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, OVERALL DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S ON SUNDAY, CLIMBING TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD
UNDER THIS PATTERN. CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
WITH HEATING ALONE ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FORECAST DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY EVIDENT TRIGGERING
MECHANISM.

LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE TO END THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE
UNCAPPED OR WEAKLY CAPPED. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LIGHT WIND COMBINED WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL AT BWG/LEX THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MID-
MORNING ALONG WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH BASES 4-5 KFT. THERE
ARE SIGNALS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A STORM
DEVELOPING BY 17-18Z...LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 23-00Z.
THOUGH...EXPECTING LOW COVERAGE WHICH PRECLUDES MENTIONING IN THE
TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........BJS
AVIATION..........ZBT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 290506
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
106 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IN THE NEAR TERM, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO AND THEN COOL INTO THE 70S THIS EVENING.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BEING MUCH MILDER THAN WHAT WE`VE
PREVIOUSLY SEEN.  LOWS SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EVENT WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  TWO AREAS
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOK TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE
TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE, AND DOWN ACROSS OUR SOUTH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING IN.  OVERALL FORCING STILL LOOKS
RATHER LIMITED, BUT COVERAGE OF 15-20% LOOKS REASONABLE AND CURRENT
DATA SUGGESTS THAT FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST.  IT WILL BE A BIT
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S IN THE NORTH WITH
MID-UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.  A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SUNDAY - MONDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, OVERALL DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S ON SUNDAY, CLIMBING TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD
UNDER THIS PATTERN. CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
WITH HEATING ALONE ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FORECAST DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY EVIDENT TRIGGERING
MECHANISM.

LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE TO END THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE
UNCAPPED OR WEAKLY CAPPED. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LIGHT WIND COMBINED WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL AT BWG/LEX THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MID-
MORNING ALONG WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH BASES 4-5 KFT. THERE
ARE SIGNALS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A STORM
DEVELOPING BY 17-18Z...LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 23-00Z.
THOUGH...EXPECTING LOW COVERAGE WHICH PRECLUDES MENTIONING IN THE
TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........BJS
AVIATION..........ZBT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 282258
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
658 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IN THE NEAR TERM, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO AND THEN COOL INTO THE 70S THIS EVENING.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BEING MUCH MILDER THAN WHAT WE`VE
PREVIOUSLY SEEN.  LOWS SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EVENT WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  TWO AREAS
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOK TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE
TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE, AND DOWN ACROSS OUR SOUTH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING IN.  OVERALL FORCING STILL LOOKS
RATHER LIMITED, BUT COVERAGE OF 15-20% LOOKS REASONABLE AND CURRENT
DATA SUGGESTS THAT FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST.  IT WILL BE A BIT
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S IN THE NORTH WITH
MID-UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.  A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SUNDAY - MONDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, OVERALL DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S ON SUNDAY, CLIMBING TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD
UNDER THIS PATTERN. CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
WITH HEATING ALONE ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FORECAST DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY EVIDENT TRIGGERING
MECHANISM.

LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE TO END THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE
UNCAPPED OR WEAKLY CAPPED. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT COUPLED WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN
THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........BJS
AVIATION..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 282258
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
658 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IN THE NEAR TERM, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO AND THEN COOL INTO THE 70S THIS EVENING.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BEING MUCH MILDER THAN WHAT WE`VE
PREVIOUSLY SEEN.  LOWS SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EVENT WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  TWO AREAS
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOK TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE
TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE, AND DOWN ACROSS OUR SOUTH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING IN.  OVERALL FORCING STILL LOOKS
RATHER LIMITED, BUT COVERAGE OF 15-20% LOOKS REASONABLE AND CURRENT
DATA SUGGESTS THAT FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST.  IT WILL BE A BIT
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S IN THE NORTH WITH
MID-UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.  A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SUNDAY - MONDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, OVERALL DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S ON SUNDAY, CLIMBING TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD
UNDER THIS PATTERN. CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
WITH HEATING ALONE ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FORECAST DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY EVIDENT TRIGGERING
MECHANISM.

LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE TO END THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE
UNCAPPED OR WEAKLY CAPPED. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT COUPLED WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN
THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........BJS
AVIATION..........KJD




000
FXUS63 KLMK 281924
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IN THE NEAR TERM, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO AND THEN COOL INTO THE 70S THIS EVENING.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BEING MUCH MILDER THAN WHAT WE`VE
PREVIOUSLY SEEN.  LOWS SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EVENT WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  TWO AREAS
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOK TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE
TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE, AND DOWN ACROSS OUR SOUTH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING IN.  OVERALL FORCING STILL LOOKS
RATHER LIMITED, BUT COVERAGE OF 15-20% LOOKS REASONABLE AND CURRENT
DATA SUGGESTS THAT FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST.  IT WILL BE A BIT
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S IN THE NORTH WITH
MID-UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.  A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SUNDAY - MONDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, OVERALL DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S ON SUNDAY, CLIMBING TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD
UNDER THIS PATTERN. CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
WITH HEATING ALONE ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FORECAST DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY EVIDENT TRIGGERING
MECHANISM.

LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE TO END THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE
UNCAPPED OR WEAKLY CAPPED. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.  AS THIS
OCCURS, WE`LL SEE OUR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.  SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT THESE
WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECTS ON AVIATION AT THE TERMINALS.  SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE CURRENT
TAF FORECAST.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........BJS
AVIATION..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 281924
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IN THE NEAR TERM, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO AND THEN COOL INTO THE 70S THIS EVENING.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BEING MUCH MILDER THAN WHAT WE`VE
PREVIOUSLY SEEN.  LOWS SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EVENT WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  TWO AREAS
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOK TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE
TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE, AND DOWN ACROSS OUR SOUTH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING IN.  OVERALL FORCING STILL LOOKS
RATHER LIMITED, BUT COVERAGE OF 15-20% LOOKS REASONABLE AND CURRENT
DATA SUGGESTS THAT FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST.  IT WILL BE A BIT
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S IN THE NORTH WITH
MID-UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.  A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SUNDAY - MONDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, OVERALL DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S ON SUNDAY, CLIMBING TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD
UNDER THIS PATTERN. CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
WITH HEATING ALONE ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FORECAST DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY EVIDENT TRIGGERING
MECHANISM.

LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE TO END THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE
UNCAPPED OR WEAKLY CAPPED. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.  AS THIS
OCCURS, WE`LL SEE OUR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.  SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT THESE
WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECTS ON AVIATION AT THE TERMINALS.  SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE CURRENT
TAF FORECAST.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........BJS
AVIATION..........MJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 281924
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IN THE NEAR TERM, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO AND THEN COOL INTO THE 70S THIS EVENING.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BEING MUCH MILDER THAN WHAT WE`VE
PREVIOUSLY SEEN.  LOWS SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EVENT WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  TWO AREAS
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOK TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE
TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE, AND DOWN ACROSS OUR SOUTH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING IN.  OVERALL FORCING STILL LOOKS
RATHER LIMITED, BUT COVERAGE OF 15-20% LOOKS REASONABLE AND CURRENT
DATA SUGGESTS THAT FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST.  IT WILL BE A BIT
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S IN THE NORTH WITH
MID-UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.  A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SUNDAY - MONDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, OVERALL DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S ON SUNDAY, CLIMBING TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD
UNDER THIS PATTERN. CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
WITH HEATING ALONE ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FORECAST DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY EVIDENT TRIGGERING
MECHANISM.

LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE TO END THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE
UNCAPPED OR WEAKLY CAPPED. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.  AS THIS
OCCURS, WE`LL SEE OUR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.  SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT THESE
WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECTS ON AVIATION AT THE TERMINALS.  SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE CURRENT
TAF FORECAST.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........BJS
AVIATION..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 281707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EDT TRI AUG 28 2015

OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING.  SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPEATURES WERE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S.  SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HRS AS A RESULT WITH TEMPS ON THE REBOUND IN RETURN FLOW.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH.  AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY.  AT THE
SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST PUSHING
MOISTURE/FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WHILE MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS CERTAIN, A CLEAR TRIGGER AND GOOD FORCING ARE
QUESTIONABLE AND THE OHIO VALLEY MAY STAY LARGELY CAPPED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.  STILL MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF POPS MAINLY SAT AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION.  THUS, WILL CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MID-WEEK ONWARD
THEN TRENDS BELOW AVERAGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL DRAW
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WITH THE WEAK/BAGGY FLOW
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR LATE SUMMER
LEVELS...SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT HANGS ON THROUGH MONDAY AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND EVENTUAL
TRACK OF ERIKA. FOR THE SAKE OF FORECAST CONTINUITY UNTIL SIGNALS
BECOME CLEARER...KEPT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH CONCEIVABLY A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL...OR
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
URBAN CORES. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST AS DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.  AS THIS
OCCURS, WE`LL SEE OUR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.  SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT THESE
WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECTS ON AVIATION AT THE TERMINALS.  SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE CURRENT
TAF FORECAST.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MJ
SHORT TERM.....AMS
LONG TERM......ZBT
AVIATION.......MJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 281707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EDT TRI AUG 28 2015

OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING.  SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPEATURES WERE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S.  SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HRS AS A RESULT WITH TEMPS ON THE REBOUND IN RETURN FLOW.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH.  AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY.  AT THE
SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST PUSHING
MOISTURE/FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WHILE MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS CERTAIN, A CLEAR TRIGGER AND GOOD FORCING ARE
QUESTIONABLE AND THE OHIO VALLEY MAY STAY LARGELY CAPPED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.  STILL MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF POPS MAINLY SAT AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION.  THUS, WILL CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MID-WEEK ONWARD
THEN TRENDS BELOW AVERAGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL DRAW
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WITH THE WEAK/BAGGY FLOW
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR LATE SUMMER
LEVELS...SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT HANGS ON THROUGH MONDAY AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND EVENTUAL
TRACK OF ERIKA. FOR THE SAKE OF FORECAST CONTINUITY UNTIL SIGNALS
BECOME CLEARER...KEPT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH CONCEIVABLY A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL...OR
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
URBAN CORES. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST AS DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.  AS THIS
OCCURS, WE`LL SEE OUR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.  SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT THESE
WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECTS ON AVIATION AT THE TERMINALS.  SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY, BUT LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE CURRENT
TAF FORECAST.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MJ
SHORT TERM.....AMS
LONG TERM......ZBT
AVIATION.......MJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 281535
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1135 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EDT TRI AUG 28 2015

OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING.  SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPEATURES WERE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S.  SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HRS AS A RESULT WITH TEMPS ON THE REBOUND IN RETURN FLOW.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH.  AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY.  AT THE
SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST PUSHING
MOISTURE/FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WHILE MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS CERTAIN, A CLEAR TRIGGER AND GOOD FORCING ARE
QUESTIONABLE AND THE OHIO VALLEY MAY STAY LARGELY CAPPED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.  STILL MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF POPS MAINLY SAT AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION.  THUS, WILL CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MID-WEEK ONWARD
THEN TRENDS BELOW AVERAGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL DRAW
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WITH THE WEAK/BAGGY FLOW
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR LATE SUMMER
LEVELS...SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT HANGS ON THROUGH MONDAY AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND EVENTUAL
TRACK OF ERIKA. FOR THE SAKE OF FORECAST CONTINUITY UNTIL SIGNALS
BECOME CLEARER...KEPT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH CONCEIVABLY A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL...OR
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
URBAN CORES. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST AS DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BWG VSBY COULD STILL DROP BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR/IFR CAT. OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH
SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.  MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MJ
SHORT TERM.....AMS
LONG TERM......ZBT
AVIATION.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 281535
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1135 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EDT TRI AUG 28 2015

OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING.  SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPEATURES WERE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S.  SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HRS AS A RESULT WITH TEMPS ON THE REBOUND IN RETURN FLOW.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH.  AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY.  AT THE
SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST PUSHING
MOISTURE/FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WHILE MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS CERTAIN, A CLEAR TRIGGER AND GOOD FORCING ARE
QUESTIONABLE AND THE OHIO VALLEY MAY STAY LARGELY CAPPED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.  STILL MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF POPS MAINLY SAT AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION.  THUS, WILL CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MID-WEEK ONWARD
THEN TRENDS BELOW AVERAGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL DRAW
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WITH THE WEAK/BAGGY FLOW
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR LATE SUMMER
LEVELS...SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT HANGS ON THROUGH MONDAY AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND EVENTUAL
TRACK OF ERIKA. FOR THE SAKE OF FORECAST CONTINUITY UNTIL SIGNALS
BECOME CLEARER...KEPT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH CONCEIVABLY A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL...OR
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
URBAN CORES. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST AS DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BWG VSBY COULD STILL DROP BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR/IFR CAT. OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH
SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.  MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MJ
SHORT TERM.....AMS
LONG TERM......ZBT
AVIATION.......AMS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 281050
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
650 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HRS AS A RESULT WITH TEMPS ON THE REBOUND IN RETURN FLOW.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH.  AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY.  AT THE
SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST PUSHING
MOISTURE/FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WHILE MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS CERTAIN, A CLEAR TRIGGER AND GOOD FORCING ARE
QUESTIONABLE AND THE OHIO VALLEY MAY STAY LARGELY CAPPED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.  STILL MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF POPS MAINLY SAT AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION.  THUS, WILL CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MID-WEEK ONWARD
THEN TRENDS BELOW AVERAGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL DRAW
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WITH THE WEAK/BAGGY FLOW
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR LATE SUMMER
LEVELS...SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT HANGS ON THROUGH MONDAY AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND EVENTUAL
TRACK OF ERIKA. FOR THE SAKE OF FORECAST CONTINUITY UNTIL SIGNALS
BECOME CLEARER...KEPT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH CONCEIVABLY A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL...OR
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
URBAN CORES. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST AS DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BWG VSBY COULD STILL DROP BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR/IFR CAT. OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH
SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.  MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AMS
LONG TERM.........ZBT
AVIATION..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 281050
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
650 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HRS AS A RESULT WITH TEMPS ON THE REBOUND IN RETURN FLOW.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH.  AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY.  AT THE
SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST PUSHING
MOISTURE/FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WHILE MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS CERTAIN, A CLEAR TRIGGER AND GOOD FORCING ARE
QUESTIONABLE AND THE OHIO VALLEY MAY STAY LARGELY CAPPED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.  STILL MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF POPS MAINLY SAT AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION.  THUS, WILL CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MID-WEEK ONWARD
THEN TRENDS BELOW AVERAGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL DRAW
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WITH THE WEAK/BAGGY FLOW
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR LATE SUMMER
LEVELS...SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT HANGS ON THROUGH MONDAY AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND EVENTUAL
TRACK OF ERIKA. FOR THE SAKE OF FORECAST CONTINUITY UNTIL SIGNALS
BECOME CLEARER...KEPT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH CONCEIVABLY A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL...OR
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
URBAN CORES. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST AS DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BWG VSBY COULD STILL DROP BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR/IFR CAT. OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH
SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.  MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AMS
LONG TERM.........ZBT
AVIATION..........AMS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 280710
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HRS AS A RESULT WITH TEMPS ON THE REBOUND IN RETURN FLOW.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH.  AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY.  AT THE
SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST PUSHING
MOISTURE/FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WHILE MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS CERTAIN, A CLEAR TRIGGER AND GOOD FORCING ARE
QUESTIONABLE AND THE OHIO VALLEY MAY STAY LARGELY CAPPED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.  STILL MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF POPS MAINLY SAT AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION.  THUS, WILL CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MID-WEEK ONWARD
THEN TRENDS BELOW AVERAGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL DRAW
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WITH THE WEAK/BAGGY FLOW
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR LATE SUMMER
LEVELS...SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT HANGS ON THROUGH MONDAY AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND EVENTUAL
TRACK OF ERIKA. FOR THE SAKE OF FORECAST CONTINUITY UNTIL SIGNALS
BECOME CLEARER...KEPT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH CONCEIVABLY A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL...OR
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
URBAN CORES. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST AS DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AT BWG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO IFR AT BWG AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AMS
LONG TERM.........ZBT
AVIATION..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280710
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HRS AS A RESULT WITH TEMPS ON THE REBOUND IN RETURN FLOW.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH.  AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY.  AT THE
SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST PUSHING
MOISTURE/FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WHILE MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS CERTAIN, A CLEAR TRIGGER AND GOOD FORCING ARE
QUESTIONABLE AND THE OHIO VALLEY MAY STAY LARGELY CAPPED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.  STILL MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF POPS MAINLY SAT AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION.  THUS, WILL CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MID-WEEK ONWARD
THEN TRENDS BELOW AVERAGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL DRAW
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WITH THE WEAK/BAGGY FLOW
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR LATE SUMMER
LEVELS...SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT HANGS ON THROUGH MONDAY AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND EVENTUAL
TRACK OF ERIKA. FOR THE SAKE OF FORECAST CONTINUITY UNTIL SIGNALS
BECOME CLEARER...KEPT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH CONCEIVABLY A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL...OR
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
URBAN CORES. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST AS DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AT BWG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO IFR AT BWG AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AMS
LONG TERM.........ZBT
AVIATION..........AMS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 280710
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HRS AS A RESULT WITH TEMPS ON THE REBOUND IN RETURN FLOW.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH.  AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY.  AT THE
SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST PUSHING
MOISTURE/FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WHILE MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS CERTAIN, A CLEAR TRIGGER AND GOOD FORCING ARE
QUESTIONABLE AND THE OHIO VALLEY MAY STAY LARGELY CAPPED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.  STILL MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF POPS MAINLY SAT AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION.  THUS, WILL CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MID-WEEK ONWARD
THEN TRENDS BELOW AVERAGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL DRAW
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WITH THE WEAK/BAGGY FLOW
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR LATE SUMMER
LEVELS...SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT HANGS ON THROUGH MONDAY AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND EVENTUAL
TRACK OF ERIKA. FOR THE SAKE OF FORECAST CONTINUITY UNTIL SIGNALS
BECOME CLEARER...KEPT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH CONCEIVABLY A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL...OR
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
URBAN CORES. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST AS DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AT BWG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO IFR AT BWG AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AMS
LONG TERM.........ZBT
AVIATION..........AMS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 280710
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HRS AS A RESULT WITH TEMPS ON THE REBOUND IN RETURN FLOW.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH.  AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY.  AT THE
SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST PUSHING
MOISTURE/FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WHILE MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS CERTAIN, A CLEAR TRIGGER AND GOOD FORCING ARE
QUESTIONABLE AND THE OHIO VALLEY MAY STAY LARGELY CAPPED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.  STILL MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF POPS MAINLY SAT AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION.  THUS, WILL CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MID-WEEK ONWARD
THEN TRENDS BELOW AVERAGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL DRAW
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WITH THE WEAK/BAGGY FLOW
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR LATE SUMMER
LEVELS...SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT HANGS ON THROUGH MONDAY AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND EVENTUAL
TRACK OF ERIKA. FOR THE SAKE OF FORECAST CONTINUITY UNTIL SIGNALS
BECOME CLEARER...KEPT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH CONCEIVABLY A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL...OR
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
URBAN CORES. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST AS DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AT BWG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO IFR AT BWG AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AMS
LONG TERM.........ZBT
AVIATION..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280517
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALOFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN TOMORROW WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
LOOK TO TOP OUT SOME 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER AS WELL IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.  THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCED OF RAIN LOOK LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN LOW MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS.  AFTER SUNDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE.  WITH THIS FORECAST, PLAN ON GOING WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED.  WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE
MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN.  AS OFTEN THE
CASE THROUGHOUT THIS SUMMER, WE`VE SEEN THE MODELS GO AFTER A WARMER
PATTERN IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ONLY FOR THINGS
TO GET PUSHED BACK.  THIS TIME AROUND, THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
MIGHT HAVE THE LEGS TO GO WARM, BUT THE SPREAD IN TEH MODEL DATA
FROM MID-WEEK ON LOWERS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE A BIT.  IN ADDITION,
WE MAY HAVE SOME EFFECTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA PUSHING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  FOR NOW, PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE
TO THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH DOES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO SEASONAL READINGS.

HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.  A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 80S
AND TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK.  SHOULD THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING INDEED BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED INTO OUR AREA, TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AT BWG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO IFR AT BWG AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........EER
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280517
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALOFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN TOMORROW WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
LOOK TO TOP OUT SOME 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER AS WELL IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.  THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCED OF RAIN LOOK LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN LOW MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS.  AFTER SUNDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE.  WITH THIS FORECAST, PLAN ON GOING WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED.  WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE
MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN.  AS OFTEN THE
CASE THROUGHOUT THIS SUMMER, WE`VE SEEN THE MODELS GO AFTER A WARMER
PATTERN IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ONLY FOR THINGS
TO GET PUSHED BACK.  THIS TIME AROUND, THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
MIGHT HAVE THE LEGS TO GO WARM, BUT THE SPREAD IN TEH MODEL DATA
FROM MID-WEEK ON LOWERS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE A BIT.  IN ADDITION,
WE MAY HAVE SOME EFFECTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA PUSHING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  FOR NOW, PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE
TO THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH DOES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO SEASONAL READINGS.

HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.  A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 80S
AND TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK.  SHOULD THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING INDEED BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED INTO OUR AREA, TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AT BWG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO IFR AT BWG AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........EER
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........AMS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 280517
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALOFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN TOMORROW WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
LOOK TO TOP OUT SOME 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER AS WELL IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.  THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCED OF RAIN LOOK LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN LOW MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS.  AFTER SUNDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE.  WITH THIS FORECAST, PLAN ON GOING WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED.  WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE
MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN.  AS OFTEN THE
CASE THROUGHOUT THIS SUMMER, WE`VE SEEN THE MODELS GO AFTER A WARMER
PATTERN IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ONLY FOR THINGS
TO GET PUSHED BACK.  THIS TIME AROUND, THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
MIGHT HAVE THE LEGS TO GO WARM, BUT THE SPREAD IN TEH MODEL DATA
FROM MID-WEEK ON LOWERS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE A BIT.  IN ADDITION,
WE MAY HAVE SOME EFFECTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA PUSHING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  FOR NOW, PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE
TO THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH DOES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO SEASONAL READINGS.

HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.  A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 80S
AND TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK.  SHOULD THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING INDEED BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED INTO OUR AREA, TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AT BWG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO IFR AT BWG AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........EER
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280517
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALOFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN TOMORROW WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
LOOK TO TOP OUT SOME 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER AS WELL IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.  THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCED OF RAIN LOOK LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN LOW MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS.  AFTER SUNDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE.  WITH THIS FORECAST, PLAN ON GOING WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED.  WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE
MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN.  AS OFTEN THE
CASE THROUGHOUT THIS SUMMER, WE`VE SEEN THE MODELS GO AFTER A WARMER
PATTERN IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ONLY FOR THINGS
TO GET PUSHED BACK.  THIS TIME AROUND, THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
MIGHT HAVE THE LEGS TO GO WARM, BUT THE SPREAD IN TEH MODEL DATA
FROM MID-WEEK ON LOWERS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE A BIT.  IN ADDITION,
WE MAY HAVE SOME EFFECTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA PUSHING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  FOR NOW, PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE
TO THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH DOES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO SEASONAL READINGS.

HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.  A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 80S
AND TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK.  SHOULD THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING INDEED BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED INTO OUR AREA, TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AT BWG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO IFR AT BWG AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........EER
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........AMS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 272246
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALOFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN TOMORROW WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
LOOK TO TOP OUT SOME 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER AS WELL IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.  THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCED OF RAIN LOOK LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN LOW MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS.  AFTER SUNDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE.  WITH THIS FORECAST, PLAN ON GOING WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED.  WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE
MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN.  AS OFTEN THE
CASE THROUGHOUT THIS SUMMER, WE`VE SEEN THE MODELS GO AFTER A WARMER
PATTERN IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ONLY FOR THINGS
TO GET PUSHED BACK.  THIS TIME AROUND, THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
MIGHT HAVE THE LEGS TO GO WARM, BUT THE SPREAD IN TEH MODEL DATA
FROM MID-WEEK ON LOWERS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE A BIT.  IN ADDITION,
WE MAY HAVE SOME EFFECTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA PUSHING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  FOR NOW, PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE
TO THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH DOES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO SEASONAL READINGS.

HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.  A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 80S
AND TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK.  SHOULD THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING INDEED BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED INTO OUR AREA, TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT
KBWG. OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SOME
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........EER
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 272246
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALOFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN TOMORROW WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
LOOK TO TOP OUT SOME 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER AS WELL IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.  THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCED OF RAIN LOOK LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN LOW MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS.  AFTER SUNDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE.  WITH THIS FORECAST, PLAN ON GOING WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED.  WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE
MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN.  AS OFTEN THE
CASE THROUGHOUT THIS SUMMER, WE`VE SEEN THE MODELS GO AFTER A WARMER
PATTERN IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ONLY FOR THINGS
TO GET PUSHED BACK.  THIS TIME AROUND, THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
MIGHT HAVE THE LEGS TO GO WARM, BUT THE SPREAD IN TEH MODEL DATA
FROM MID-WEEK ON LOWERS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE A BIT.  IN ADDITION,
WE MAY HAVE SOME EFFECTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA PUSHING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  FOR NOW, PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE
TO THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH DOES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO SEASONAL READINGS.

HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.  A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 80S
AND TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK.  SHOULD THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING INDEED BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED INTO OUR AREA, TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT
KBWG. OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SOME
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........EER
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........KJD




000
FXUS63 KLMK 271935
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
335 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALOFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN TOMORROW WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
LOOK TO TOP OUT SOME 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER AS WELL IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.  THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCED OF RAIN LOOK LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN LOW MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS.  AFTER SUNDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE.  WITH THIS FORECAST, PLAN ON GOING WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED.  WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE
MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN.  AS OFTEN THE
CASE THROUGHOUT THIS SUMMER, WE`VE SEEN THE MODELS GO AFTER A WARMER
PATTERN IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ONLY FOR THINGS
TO GET PUSHED BACK.  THIS TIME AROUND, THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
MIGHT HAVE THE LEGS TO GO WARM, BUT THE SPREAD IN TEH MODEL DATA
FROM MID-WEEK ON LOWERS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE A BIT.  IN ADDITION,
WE MAY HAVE SOME EFFECTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA PUSHING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  FOR NOW, PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE
TO THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH DOES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO SEASONAL READINGS.

HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.  A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 80S
AND TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK.  SHOULD THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING INDEED BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED INTO OUR AREA, TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CU CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BWG AND LEX
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........EER
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........EER




000
FXUS63 KLMK 271935
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
335 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALOFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN TOMORROW WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
LOOK TO TOP OUT SOME 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER AS WELL IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.  THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCED OF RAIN LOOK LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN LOW MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS.  AFTER SUNDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE.  WITH THIS FORECAST, PLAN ON GOING WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED.  WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE
MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN.  AS OFTEN THE
CASE THROUGHOUT THIS SUMMER, WE`VE SEEN THE MODELS GO AFTER A WARMER
PATTERN IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ONLY FOR THINGS
TO GET PUSHED BACK.  THIS TIME AROUND, THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
MIGHT HAVE THE LEGS TO GO WARM, BUT THE SPREAD IN TEH MODEL DATA
FROM MID-WEEK ON LOWERS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE A BIT.  IN ADDITION,
WE MAY HAVE SOME EFFECTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA PUSHING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  FOR NOW, PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE
TO THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH DOES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO SEASONAL READINGS.

HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.  A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 80S
AND TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK.  SHOULD THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING INDEED BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED INTO OUR AREA, TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CU CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BWG AND LEX
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........EER
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 271935
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
335 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALOFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN TOMORROW WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
LOOK TO TOP OUT SOME 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER AS WELL IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.  THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCED OF RAIN LOOK LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN LOW MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS.  AFTER SUNDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE.  WITH THIS FORECAST, PLAN ON GOING WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED.  WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE
MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN.  AS OFTEN THE
CASE THROUGHOUT THIS SUMMER, WE`VE SEEN THE MODELS GO AFTER A WARMER
PATTERN IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ONLY FOR THINGS
TO GET PUSHED BACK.  THIS TIME AROUND, THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
MIGHT HAVE THE LEGS TO GO WARM, BUT THE SPREAD IN TEH MODEL DATA
FROM MID-WEEK ON LOWERS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE A BIT.  IN ADDITION,
WE MAY HAVE SOME EFFECTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA PUSHING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  FOR NOW, PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE
TO THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH DOES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO SEASONAL READINGS.

HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.  A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 80S
AND TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK.  SHOULD THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING INDEED BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED INTO OUR AREA, TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CU CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BWG AND LEX
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........EER
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........EER




000
FXUS63 KLMK 271647
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1247 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...THE AMAZING AUGUST CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING 1 MORE DAY AS IT SLIDES EWD
FROM THE WINDY CITY TO THE KEYSTONE STATE. THE VWP WINDS OFF THE 88D
HAVE BACKING LLVL WINDS, ALMOST UNHEARD OF FOR LATE AUGUST.

FOR THE PRE 1ST PERIOD

WE DO EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SRN/EAST-CENTRAL KY. RIGHT NOW SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD AN EXCELLENT FORECAST GOING WITH ENHANCED
FOG SMART TOOL FOR FOG PRONE AREAS THROUGH 12-13Z. WILL KEEP THIS
GOING. ALSO PESKY LLVL CLOUD OVER ACROSS FAR EASTERN IN AND BUCKEYE
STATE DOWN TO CVG AND IMS.  UPDATED CLOUD COVER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS THROUGH HENRY/TRIMBLE AND OVER TO MADISON INDIANA THIS
MORNING. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE AT H8 SO WE EXPECT
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, YIELDING MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO VERY LOW
80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHAVED OFF 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS NRN BLUEGRASS DUE TO LLVL SKY COVER .

FRIDAY...

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER WILL BUILD
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHRTWV OVER NRN PLAINS. THE H8 WINDS WILL
BEGINNING VEERING TO THE S-SW ALLOWING SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO
WARM UP. TEMPS WILL BE IN 83-87 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 60S FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  ISLD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SAT NIGHT/SUN AS
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  FORCING WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE SETUP SO ONLY GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (A
FEW HUNDRETHS TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN).

THE LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE 0Z OPS GFS TAKES A WEAK REMNANT PIECE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND LINGERS IT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MON/MONDAY NIGHT
THEN MERGES THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA.  THE ECMWF
TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LOW EASTWARD WITH A MAINLY DRY WEEK IN STORE
WITH ERIKA REMNANTS STAYING WELL TO OUR SE.  WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLN FOR NOW BUT THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES SAT-MON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR LOWS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MID
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CU CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BWG AND LEX
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JDG
LONG TERM.........AMS
AVIATION..........EER




000
FXUS63 KLMK 271647
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1247 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...THE AMAZING AUGUST CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING 1 MORE DAY AS IT SLIDES EWD
FROM THE WINDY CITY TO THE KEYSTONE STATE. THE VWP WINDS OFF THE 88D
HAVE BACKING LLVL WINDS, ALMOST UNHEARD OF FOR LATE AUGUST.

FOR THE PRE 1ST PERIOD

WE DO EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SRN/EAST-CENTRAL KY. RIGHT NOW SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD AN EXCELLENT FORECAST GOING WITH ENHANCED
FOG SMART TOOL FOR FOG PRONE AREAS THROUGH 12-13Z. WILL KEEP THIS
GOING. ALSO PESKY LLVL CLOUD OVER ACROSS FAR EASTERN IN AND BUCKEYE
STATE DOWN TO CVG AND IMS.  UPDATED CLOUD COVER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS THROUGH HENRY/TRIMBLE AND OVER TO MADISON INDIANA THIS
MORNING. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE AT H8 SO WE EXPECT
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, YIELDING MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO VERY LOW
80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHAVED OFF 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS NRN BLUEGRASS DUE TO LLVL SKY COVER .

FRIDAY...

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER WILL BUILD
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHRTWV OVER NRN PLAINS. THE H8 WINDS WILL
BEGINNING VEERING TO THE S-SW ALLOWING SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO
WARM UP. TEMPS WILL BE IN 83-87 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 60S FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  ISLD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SAT NIGHT/SUN AS
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  FORCING WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE SETUP SO ONLY GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (A
FEW HUNDRETHS TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN).

THE LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE 0Z OPS GFS TAKES A WEAK REMNANT PIECE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND LINGERS IT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MON/MONDAY NIGHT
THEN MERGES THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA.  THE ECMWF
TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LOW EASTWARD WITH A MAINLY DRY WEEK IN STORE
WITH ERIKA REMNANTS STAYING WELL TO OUR SE.  WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLN FOR NOW BUT THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES SAT-MON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR LOWS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MID
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CU CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BWG AND LEX
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JDG
LONG TERM.........AMS
AVIATION..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 271647
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1247 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...THE AMAZING AUGUST CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING 1 MORE DAY AS IT SLIDES EWD
FROM THE WINDY CITY TO THE KEYSTONE STATE. THE VWP WINDS OFF THE 88D
HAVE BACKING LLVL WINDS, ALMOST UNHEARD OF FOR LATE AUGUST.

FOR THE PRE 1ST PERIOD

WE DO EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SRN/EAST-CENTRAL KY. RIGHT NOW SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD AN EXCELLENT FORECAST GOING WITH ENHANCED
FOG SMART TOOL FOR FOG PRONE AREAS THROUGH 12-13Z. WILL KEEP THIS
GOING. ALSO PESKY LLVL CLOUD OVER ACROSS FAR EASTERN IN AND BUCKEYE
STATE DOWN TO CVG AND IMS.  UPDATED CLOUD COVER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS THROUGH HENRY/TRIMBLE AND OVER TO MADISON INDIANA THIS
MORNING. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE AT H8 SO WE EXPECT
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, YIELDING MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO VERY LOW
80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHAVED OFF 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS NRN BLUEGRASS DUE TO LLVL SKY COVER .

FRIDAY...

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER WILL BUILD
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHRTWV OVER NRN PLAINS. THE H8 WINDS WILL
BEGINNING VEERING TO THE S-SW ALLOWING SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO
WARM UP. TEMPS WILL BE IN 83-87 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 60S FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  ISLD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SAT NIGHT/SUN AS
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  FORCING WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE SETUP SO ONLY GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (A
FEW HUNDRETHS TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN).

THE LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE 0Z OPS GFS TAKES A WEAK REMNANT PIECE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND LINGERS IT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MON/MONDAY NIGHT
THEN MERGES THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA.  THE ECMWF
TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LOW EASTWARD WITH A MAINLY DRY WEEK IN STORE
WITH ERIKA REMNANTS STAYING WELL TO OUR SE.  WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLN FOR NOW BUT THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES SAT-MON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR LOWS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MID
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CU CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BWG AND LEX
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JDG
LONG TERM.........AMS
AVIATION..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 271647
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1247 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...THE AMAZING AUGUST CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING 1 MORE DAY AS IT SLIDES EWD
FROM THE WINDY CITY TO THE KEYSTONE STATE. THE VWP WINDS OFF THE 88D
HAVE BACKING LLVL WINDS, ALMOST UNHEARD OF FOR LATE AUGUST.

FOR THE PRE 1ST PERIOD

WE DO EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SRN/EAST-CENTRAL KY. RIGHT NOW SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD AN EXCELLENT FORECAST GOING WITH ENHANCED
FOG SMART TOOL FOR FOG PRONE AREAS THROUGH 12-13Z. WILL KEEP THIS
GOING. ALSO PESKY LLVL CLOUD OVER ACROSS FAR EASTERN IN AND BUCKEYE
STATE DOWN TO CVG AND IMS.  UPDATED CLOUD COVER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS THROUGH HENRY/TRIMBLE AND OVER TO MADISON INDIANA THIS
MORNING. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE AT H8 SO WE EXPECT
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, YIELDING MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO VERY LOW
80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHAVED OFF 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS NRN BLUEGRASS DUE TO LLVL SKY COVER .

FRIDAY...

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER WILL BUILD
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHRTWV OVER NRN PLAINS. THE H8 WINDS WILL
BEGINNING VEERING TO THE S-SW ALLOWING SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO
WARM UP. TEMPS WILL BE IN 83-87 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 60S FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  ISLD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SAT NIGHT/SUN AS
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  FORCING WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE SETUP SO ONLY GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (A
FEW HUNDRETHS TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN).

THE LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE 0Z OPS GFS TAKES A WEAK REMNANT PIECE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND LINGERS IT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MON/MONDAY NIGHT
THEN MERGES THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA.  THE ECMWF
TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LOW EASTWARD WITH A MAINLY DRY WEEK IN STORE
WITH ERIKA REMNANTS STAYING WELL TO OUR SE.  WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLN FOR NOW BUT THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES SAT-MON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR LOWS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MID
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CU CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BWG AND LEX
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JDG
LONG TERM.........AMS
AVIATION..........EER




000
FXUS63 KLMK 271046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...THE AMAZING AUGUST CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING 1 MORE DAY AS IT SLIDES EWD
FROM THE WINDY CITY TO THE KEYSTONE STATE. THE VWP WINDS OFF THE 88D
HAVE BACKING LLVL WINDS, ALMOST UNHEARD OF FOR LATE AUGUST.

FOR THE PRE 1ST PERIOD

WE DO EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SRN/EAST-CENTRAL KY. RIGHT NOW SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD AN EXCELLENT FORECAST GOING WITH ENHANCED
FOG SMART TOOL FOR FOG PRONE AREAS THROUGH 12-13Z. WILL KEEP THIS
GOING. ALSO PESKY LLVL CLOUD OVER ACROSS FAR EASTERN IN AND BUCKEYE
STATE DOWN TO CVG AND IMS.  UPDATED CLOUD COVER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS THROUGH HENRY/TRIMBLE AND OVER TO MADISON INDIANA THIS
MORNING. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE AT H8 SO WE EXPECT
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, YIELDING MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO VERY LOW
80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHAVED OFF 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS NRN BLUEGRASS DUE TO LLVL SKY COVER .

FRIDAY...

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER WILL BUILD
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHRTWV OVER NRN PLAINS. THE H8 WINDS WILL
BEGINNING VEERING TO THE S-SW ALLOWING SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO
WARM UP. TEMPS WILL BE IN 83-87 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 60S FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  ISLD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SAT NIGHT/SUN AS
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  FORCING WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE SETUP SO ONLY GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (A
FEW HUNDRETHS TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN).

THE LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE 0Z OPS GFS TAKES A WEAK REMNANT PIECE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND LINGERS IT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MON/MONDAY NIGHT
THEN MERGES THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA.  THE ECMWF
TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LOW EASTWARD WITH A MAINLY DRY WEEK IN STORE
WITH ERIKA REMNANTS STAYING WELL TO OUR SE.  WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLN FOR NOW BUT THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES SAT-MON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR LOWS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MID
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

OTHER THAN BRIEF FG AT BWG THIS MORNING, VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.  AFTERNOON CU AND EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  SKIES WILL TURN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JDG
LONG TERM.........AMS
AVIATION..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 271046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...THE AMAZING AUGUST CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING 1 MORE DAY AS IT SLIDES EWD
FROM THE WINDY CITY TO THE KEYSTONE STATE. THE VWP WINDS OFF THE 88D
HAVE BACKING LLVL WINDS, ALMOST UNHEARD OF FOR LATE AUGUST.

FOR THE PRE 1ST PERIOD

WE DO EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SRN/EAST-CENTRAL KY. RIGHT NOW SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD AN EXCELLENT FORECAST GOING WITH ENHANCED
FOG SMART TOOL FOR FOG PRONE AREAS THROUGH 12-13Z. WILL KEEP THIS
GOING. ALSO PESKY LLVL CLOUD OVER ACROSS FAR EASTERN IN AND BUCKEYE
STATE DOWN TO CVG AND IMS.  UPDATED CLOUD COVER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS THROUGH HENRY/TRIMBLE AND OVER TO MADISON INDIANA THIS
MORNING. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE AT H8 SO WE EXPECT
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, YIELDING MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO VERY LOW
80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHAVED OFF 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS NRN BLUEGRASS DUE TO LLVL SKY COVER .

FRIDAY...

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER WILL BUILD
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHRTWV OVER NRN PLAINS. THE H8 WINDS WILL
BEGINNING VEERING TO THE S-SW ALLOWING SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO
WARM UP. TEMPS WILL BE IN 83-87 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 60S FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  ISLD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SAT NIGHT/SUN AS
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  FORCING WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE SETUP SO ONLY GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (A
FEW HUNDRETHS TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN).

THE LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE 0Z OPS GFS TAKES A WEAK REMNANT PIECE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND LINGERS IT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MON/MONDAY NIGHT
THEN MERGES THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA.  THE ECMWF
TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LOW EASTWARD WITH A MAINLY DRY WEEK IN STORE
WITH ERIKA REMNANTS STAYING WELL TO OUR SE.  WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLN FOR NOW BUT THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES SAT-MON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR LOWS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MID
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

OTHER THAN BRIEF FG AT BWG THIS MORNING, VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.  AFTERNOON CU AND EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  SKIES WILL TURN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JDG
LONG TERM.........AMS
AVIATION..........AMS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 270705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...THE AMAZING AUGUST CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING 1 MORE DAY AS IT SLIDES EWD
FROM THE WINDY CITY TO THE KEYSTONE STATE. THE VWP WINDS OFF THE 88D
HAVE BACKING LLVL WINDS, ALMOST UNHEARD OF FOR LATE AUGUST.

FOR THE PRE 1ST PERIOD

WE DO EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SRN/EAST-CENTRAL KY. RIGHT NOW SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD AN EXCELLENT FORECAST GOING WITH ENHANCED
FOG SMART TOOL FOR FOG PRONE AREAS THROUGH 12-13Z. WILL KEEP THIS
GOING. ALSO PESKY LLVL CLOUD OVER ACROSS FAR EASTERN IN AND BUCKEYE
STATE DOWN TO CVG AND IMS.  UPDATED CLOUD COVER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS THROUGH HENRY/TRIMBLE AND OVER TO MADISON INDIANA THIS
MORNING. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE AT H8 SO WE EXPECT
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, YIELDING MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO VERY LOW
80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHAVED OFF 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS NRN BLUEGRASS DUE TO LLVL SKY COVER .

FRIDAY...

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER WILL BUILD
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHRTWV OVER NRN PLAINS. THE H8 WINDS WILL
BEGINNING VEERING TO THE S-SW ALLOWING SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO
WARM UP. TEMPS WILL BE IN 83-87 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 60S FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  ISLD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SAT NIGHT/SUN AS
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  FORCING WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE SETUP SO ONLY GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (A
FEW HUNDRETHS TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN).

THE LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE 0Z OPS GFS TAKES A WEAK REMNANT PIECE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND LINGERS IT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MON/MONDAY NIGHT
THEN MERGES THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA.  THE ECMWF
TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LOW EASTWARD WITH A MAINLY DRY WEEK IN STORE
WITH ERIKA REMNANTS STAYING WELL TO OUR SE.  WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLN FOR NOW BUT THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES SAT-MON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR LOWS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MID
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...ACROSS THE REGION ARE SOME FEW TO SCT 060 CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM
CVG TO GLW. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR ORD/MDW WILL MOVE TO ERI.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT NELY WINDS TO ENE TODAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FABULOUS VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S, COULD BE MIFG FOG AT KBWG OR PERHAPS
KLEX. BWG WAS ERRATIC JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEY
HIT CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE TODAY SO HAVE A TEMPORARY 2 HOUR MVFR
VSBY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU TO ONCE AGAIN BUBBLE UP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  GREAT FLYING WEATHER FOR LATE AUGUST WITH NO
MAJOR TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON THERMALS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JDG
LONG TERM.........AMS
AVIATION..........JDG





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...THE AMAZING AUGUST CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING 1 MORE DAY AS IT SLIDES EWD
FROM THE WINDY CITY TO THE KEYSTONE STATE. THE VWP WINDS OFF THE 88D
HAVE BACKING LLVL WINDS, ALMOST UNHEARD OF FOR LATE AUGUST.

FOR THE PRE 1ST PERIOD

WE DO EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SRN/EAST-CENTRAL KY. RIGHT NOW SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD AN EXCELLENT FORECAST GOING WITH ENHANCED
FOG SMART TOOL FOR FOG PRONE AREAS THROUGH 12-13Z. WILL KEEP THIS
GOING. ALSO PESKY LLVL CLOUD OVER ACROSS FAR EASTERN IN AND BUCKEYE
STATE DOWN TO CVG AND IMS.  UPDATED CLOUD COVER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS THROUGH HENRY/TRIMBLE AND OVER TO MADISON INDIANA THIS
MORNING. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE AT H8 SO WE EXPECT
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, YIELDING MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO VERY LOW
80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHAVED OFF 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS NRN BLUEGRASS DUE TO LLVL SKY COVER .

FRIDAY...

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER WILL BUILD
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHRTWV OVER NRN PLAINS. THE H8 WINDS WILL
BEGINNING VEERING TO THE S-SW ALLOWING SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO
WARM UP. TEMPS WILL BE IN 83-87 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 60S FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  ISLD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SAT NIGHT/SUN AS
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  FORCING WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE SETUP SO ONLY GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (A
FEW HUNDRETHS TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN).

THE LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE 0Z OPS GFS TAKES A WEAK REMNANT PIECE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND LINGERS IT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MON/MONDAY NIGHT
THEN MERGES THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA.  THE ECMWF
TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LOW EASTWARD WITH A MAINLY DRY WEEK IN STORE
WITH ERIKA REMNANTS STAYING WELL TO OUR SE.  WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLN FOR NOW BUT THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES SAT-MON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR LOWS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MID
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...ACROSS THE REGION ARE SOME FEW TO SCT 060 CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM
CVG TO GLW. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR ORD/MDW WILL MOVE TO ERI.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT NELY WINDS TO ENE TODAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FABULOUS VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S, COULD BE MIFG FOG AT KBWG OR PERHAPS
KLEX. BWG WAS ERRATIC JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEY
HIT CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE TODAY SO HAVE A TEMPORARY 2 HOUR MVFR
VSBY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU TO ONCE AGAIN BUBBLE UP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  GREAT FLYING WEATHER FOR LATE AUGUST WITH NO
MAJOR TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON THERMALS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JDG
LONG TERM.........AMS
AVIATION..........JDG




000
FXUS63 KLMK 270705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...THE AMAZING AUGUST CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING 1 MORE DAY AS IT SLIDES EWD
FROM THE WINDY CITY TO THE KEYSTONE STATE. THE VWP WINDS OFF THE 88D
HAVE BACKING LLVL WINDS, ALMOST UNHEARD OF FOR LATE AUGUST.

FOR THE PRE 1ST PERIOD

WE DO EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SRN/EAST-CENTRAL KY. RIGHT NOW SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD AN EXCELLENT FORECAST GOING WITH ENHANCED
FOG SMART TOOL FOR FOG PRONE AREAS THROUGH 12-13Z. WILL KEEP THIS
GOING. ALSO PESKY LLVL CLOUD OVER ACROSS FAR EASTERN IN AND BUCKEYE
STATE DOWN TO CVG AND IMS.  UPDATED CLOUD COVER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS THROUGH HENRY/TRIMBLE AND OVER TO MADISON INDIANA THIS
MORNING. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE AT H8 SO WE EXPECT
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, YIELDING MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO VERY LOW
80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHAVED OFF 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS NRN BLUEGRASS DUE TO LLVL SKY COVER .

FRIDAY...

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER WILL BUILD
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHRTWV OVER NRN PLAINS. THE H8 WINDS WILL
BEGINNING VEERING TO THE S-SW ALLOWING SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO
WARM UP. TEMPS WILL BE IN 83-87 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 60S FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  ISLD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SAT NIGHT/SUN AS
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  FORCING WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE SETUP SO ONLY GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (A
FEW HUNDRETHS TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN).

THE LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE 0Z OPS GFS TAKES A WEAK REMNANT PIECE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND LINGERS IT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MON/MONDAY NIGHT
THEN MERGES THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA.  THE ECMWF
TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LOW EASTWARD WITH A MAINLY DRY WEEK IN STORE
WITH ERIKA REMNANTS STAYING WELL TO OUR SE.  WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLN FOR NOW BUT THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES SAT-MON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR LOWS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MID
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...ACROSS THE REGION ARE SOME FEW TO SCT 060 CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM
CVG TO GLW. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR ORD/MDW WILL MOVE TO ERI.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT NELY WINDS TO ENE TODAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FABULOUS VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S, COULD BE MIFG FOG AT KBWG OR PERHAPS
KLEX. BWG WAS ERRATIC JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEY
HIT CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE TODAY SO HAVE A TEMPORARY 2 HOUR MVFR
VSBY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU TO ONCE AGAIN BUBBLE UP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  GREAT FLYING WEATHER FOR LATE AUGUST WITH NO
MAJOR TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON THERMALS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JDG
LONG TERM.........AMS
AVIATION..........JDG





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270449
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1249 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TRANQUIL FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY
DURING THE PERIOD.  DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES RETURNING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR STATE.  EVENING
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE
BOTTOMING OUT OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.  A FEW MORE UPPER 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR TYPICAL COLDER LOCATIONS.  WE DO EXPECT A
LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL KY.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WE SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER, ANOTHER DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
YIELDING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS
COOL WITH MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NEXT TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
WE WILL SEE SOME WARMING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID
80S. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS FROM BOTH
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THE ONE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD LAND IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THUS STAY DRY, HOWEVER.

RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BECOME A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE
AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION, SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...ACROSS THE REGION ARE SOME FEW TO SCT 060 CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM
CVG TO GLW. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR ORD/MDW WILL MOVE TO ERI.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT NELY WINDS TO ENE TODAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FABULOUS VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S, COULD BE MIFG FOG AT KBWG OR PERHAPS
KLEX. BWG WAS ERRATIC JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEY
HIT CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE TODAY SO HAVE A TEMPORARY 2 HOUR MVFR
VSBY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU TO ONCE AGAIN BUBBLE UP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  GREAT FLYING WEATHER FOR LATE AUGUST WITH NO
MAJOR TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON THERMALS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........JDG





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270449
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1249 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TRANQUIL FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY
DURING THE PERIOD.  DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES RETURNING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR STATE.  EVENING
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE
BOTTOMING OUT OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.  A FEW MORE UPPER 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR TYPICAL COLDER LOCATIONS.  WE DO EXPECT A
LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL KY.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WE SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER, ANOTHER DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
YIELDING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS
COOL WITH MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NEXT TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
WE WILL SEE SOME WARMING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID
80S. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS FROM BOTH
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THE ONE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD LAND IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THUS STAY DRY, HOWEVER.

RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BECOME A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE
AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION, SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...ACROSS THE REGION ARE SOME FEW TO SCT 060 CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM
CVG TO GLW. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR ORD/MDW WILL MOVE TO ERI.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT NELY WINDS TO ENE TODAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FABULOUS VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S, COULD BE MIFG FOG AT KBWG OR PERHAPS
KLEX. BWG WAS ERRATIC JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEY
HIT CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE TODAY SO HAVE A TEMPORARY 2 HOUR MVFR
VSBY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU TO ONCE AGAIN BUBBLE UP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  GREAT FLYING WEATHER FOR LATE AUGUST WITH NO
MAJOR TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON THERMALS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........JDG




000
FXUS63 KLMK 270449
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1249 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TRANQUIL FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY
DURING THE PERIOD.  DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES RETURNING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR STATE.  EVENING
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE
BOTTOMING OUT OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.  A FEW MORE UPPER 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR TYPICAL COLDER LOCATIONS.  WE DO EXPECT A
LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL KY.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WE SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER, ANOTHER DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
YIELDING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS
COOL WITH MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NEXT TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
WE WILL SEE SOME WARMING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID
80S. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS FROM BOTH
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THE ONE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD LAND IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THUS STAY DRY, HOWEVER.

RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BECOME A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE
AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION, SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...ACROSS THE REGION ARE SOME FEW TO SCT 060 CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM
CVG TO GLW. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR ORD/MDW WILL MOVE TO ERI.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT NELY WINDS TO ENE TODAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FABULOUS VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S, COULD BE MIFG FOG AT KBWG OR PERHAPS
KLEX. BWG WAS ERRATIC JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEY
HIT CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE TODAY SO HAVE A TEMPORARY 2 HOUR MVFR
VSBY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU TO ONCE AGAIN BUBBLE UP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  GREAT FLYING WEATHER FOR LATE AUGUST WITH NO
MAJOR TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON THERMALS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........JDG




000
FXUS63 KLMK 270449
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1249 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TRANQUIL FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY
DURING THE PERIOD.  DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES RETURNING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR STATE.  EVENING
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE
BOTTOMING OUT OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.  A FEW MORE UPPER 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR TYPICAL COLDER LOCATIONS.  WE DO EXPECT A
LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL KY.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WE SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER, ANOTHER DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
YIELDING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS
COOL WITH MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NEXT TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
WE WILL SEE SOME WARMING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID
80S. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS FROM BOTH
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THE ONE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD LAND IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THUS STAY DRY, HOWEVER.

RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BECOME A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE
AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION, SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...ACROSS THE REGION ARE SOME FEW TO SCT 060 CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM
CVG TO GLW. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR ORD/MDW WILL MOVE TO ERI.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT NELY WINDS TO ENE TODAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FABULOUS VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S, COULD BE MIFG FOG AT KBWG OR PERHAPS
KLEX. BWG WAS ERRATIC JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEY
HIT CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE TODAY SO HAVE A TEMPORARY 2 HOUR MVFR
VSBY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU TO ONCE AGAIN BUBBLE UP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  GREAT FLYING WEATHER FOR LATE AUGUST WITH NO
MAJOR TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON THERMALS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........JDG





000
FXUS63 KLMK 262250
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
650 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TRANQUIL FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY
DURING THE PERIOD.  DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES RETURNING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR STATE.  EVENING
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE
BOTTOMING OUT OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.  A FEW MORE UPPER 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR TYPICAL COLDER LOCATIONS.  WE DO EXPECT A
LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL KY.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WE SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER, ANOTHER DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
YIELDING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS
COOL WITH MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NEXT TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
WE WILL SEE SOME WARMING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID
80S. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS FROM BOTH
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THE ONE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD LAND IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THUS STAY DRY, HOWEVER.

RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BECOME A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE
AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION, SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KBWG OR PERHAPS
KLEX...WHERE SOME LIGHT FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU TO ONCE
AGAIN BUBBLE UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ENE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........KJD




000
FXUS63 KLMK 262250
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
650 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TRANQUIL FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY
DURING THE PERIOD.  DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES RETURNING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR STATE.  EVENING
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE
BOTTOMING OUT OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.  A FEW MORE UPPER 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR TYPICAL COLDER LOCATIONS.  WE DO EXPECT A
LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL KY.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WE SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER, ANOTHER DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
YIELDING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS
COOL WITH MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NEXT TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
WE WILL SEE SOME WARMING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID
80S. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS FROM BOTH
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THE ONE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD LAND IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THUS STAY DRY, HOWEVER.

RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BECOME A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE
AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION, SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KBWG OR PERHAPS
KLEX...WHERE SOME LIGHT FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU TO ONCE
AGAIN BUBBLE UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ENE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 261940
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TRANQUIL FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY
DURING THE PERIOD.  DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES RETURNING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR STATE.  EVENING
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE
BOTTOMING OUT OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.  A FEW MORE UPPER 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR TYPICAL COLDER LOCATIONS.  WE DO EXPECT A
LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL KY.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WE SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER, ANOTHER DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
YIELDING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS
COOL WITH MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NEXT TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
WE WILL SEE SOME WARMING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID
80S. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS FROM BOTH
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THE ONE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD LAND IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THUS STAY DRY, HOWEVER.

RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BECOME A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE
AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION, SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WE`LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SCT-BKN CONDITIONS AROUND 4-5KFT AGL.  WE
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT LATER THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT KBWG
WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/09-12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WIND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........MJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 261940
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TRANQUIL FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY
DURING THE PERIOD.  DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES RETURNING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR STATE.  EVENING
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE
BOTTOMING OUT OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.  A FEW MORE UPPER 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR TYPICAL COLDER LOCATIONS.  WE DO EXPECT A
LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL KY.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WE SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER, ANOTHER DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
YIELDING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS
COOL WITH MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NEXT TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
WE WILL SEE SOME WARMING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID
80S. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS FROM BOTH
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THE ONE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD LAND IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THUS STAY DRY, HOWEVER.

RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BECOME A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE
AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION, SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WE`LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SCT-BKN CONDITIONS AROUND 4-5KFT AGL.  WE
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT LATER THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT KBWG
WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/09-12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WIND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 261940
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TRANQUIL FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY
DURING THE PERIOD.  DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES RETURNING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR STATE.  EVENING
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE
BOTTOMING OUT OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.  A FEW MORE UPPER 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR TYPICAL COLDER LOCATIONS.  WE DO EXPECT A
LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL KY.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WE SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER, ANOTHER DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
YIELDING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS
COOL WITH MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NEXT TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
WE WILL SEE SOME WARMING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID
80S. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS FROM BOTH
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THE ONE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD LAND IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THUS STAY DRY, HOWEVER.

RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BECOME A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE
AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION, SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WE`LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SCT-BKN CONDITIONS AROUND 4-5KFT AGL.  WE
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT LATER THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT KBWG
WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/09-12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WIND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 261702
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

INCREASED CLOUDINESS A BIT IN THE PREVIOUS GRID UPDATE.  WE EXPECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUN AND CLOUDS.  THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS.  HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
70S IN THE NORTH AND MID-UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTH LOOKS GOOD BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH PEACEFUL
WEATHER. TODAY WILL JUST ABOUT BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 75 TO 80.
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE
50S. SOME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES DISTRICT OF
SOUTHEAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

AS WE BEGIN TO GET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH, TEMPERATURES
WILL GET A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH FORMS OVER THE GULF
STATES.

GREATEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF US, WHILE SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
SHOULD LIFT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA, WE MAY END UP BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND NEAR DESCENT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.

NEVERTHELESS, MODELS SUGGEST THAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OUR AREA AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED SO WILL RETAIN ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP WITHIN OUR CURRENT DRY REGIME. FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN AN
OVERALL BENIGN PATTERN, SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AGAIN IN OUR
CURRENT DRY PATTERN.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS BUT NOTHING OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WE`LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SCT-BKN CONDITIONS AROUND 4-5KFT AGL.  WE
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT LATER THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT KBWG
WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/09-12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WIND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MJ
SHORT TERM.....13
LONG TERM......TWF
AVIATION.......MJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 261030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH PEACEFUL
WEATHER. TODAY WILL JUST ABOUT BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 75 TO 80.
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE
50S. SOME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES DISTRICT OF
SOUTHEAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

AS WE BEGIN TO GET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH, TEMPERATURES
WILL GET A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH FORMS OVER THE GULF
STATES.

GREATEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF US, WHILE SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
SHOULD LIFT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA, WE MAY END UP BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND NEAR DESCENT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.

NEVERTHELESS, MODELS SUGGEST THAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OUR AREA AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED SO WILL RETAIN ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP WITHIN OUR CURRENT DRY REGIME. FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN AN
OVERALL BENIGN PATTERN, SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AGAIN IN OUR
CURRENT DRY PATTERN.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS BUT NOTHING OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH QUIET WEATHER. PATCHY
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER THE TAF PERIOD
STARTS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........TWF
AVIATION..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 261030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH PEACEFUL
WEATHER. TODAY WILL JUST ABOUT BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 75 TO 80.
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE
50S. SOME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES DISTRICT OF
SOUTHEAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

AS WE BEGIN TO GET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH, TEMPERATURES
WILL GET A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH FORMS OVER THE GULF
STATES.

GREATEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF US, WHILE SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
SHOULD LIFT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA, WE MAY END UP BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND NEAR DESCENT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.

NEVERTHELESS, MODELS SUGGEST THAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OUR AREA AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED SO WILL RETAIN ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP WITHIN OUR CURRENT DRY REGIME. FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN AN
OVERALL BENIGN PATTERN, SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AGAIN IN OUR
CURRENT DRY PATTERN.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS BUT NOTHING OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH QUIET WEATHER. PATCHY
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER THE TAF PERIOD
STARTS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........TWF
AVIATION..........13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 261030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH PEACEFUL
WEATHER. TODAY WILL JUST ABOUT BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 75 TO 80.
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE
50S. SOME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES DISTRICT OF
SOUTHEAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

AS WE BEGIN TO GET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH, TEMPERATURES
WILL GET A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH FORMS OVER THE GULF
STATES.

GREATEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF US, WHILE SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
SHOULD LIFT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA, WE MAY END UP BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND NEAR DESCENT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.

NEVERTHELESS, MODELS SUGGEST THAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OUR AREA AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED SO WILL RETAIN ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP WITHIN OUR CURRENT DRY REGIME. FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN AN
OVERALL BENIGN PATTERN, SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AGAIN IN OUR
CURRENT DRY PATTERN.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS BUT NOTHING OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH QUIET WEATHER. PATCHY
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER THE TAF PERIOD
STARTS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........TWF
AVIATION..........13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 261030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH PEACEFUL
WEATHER. TODAY WILL JUST ABOUT BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 75 TO 80.
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE
50S. SOME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES DISTRICT OF
SOUTHEAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

AS WE BEGIN TO GET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH, TEMPERATURES
WILL GET A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH FORMS OVER THE GULF
STATES.

GREATEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF US, WHILE SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
SHOULD LIFT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA, WE MAY END UP BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND NEAR DESCENT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.

NEVERTHELESS, MODELS SUGGEST THAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OUR AREA AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED SO WILL RETAIN ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP WITHIN OUR CURRENT DRY REGIME. FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN AN
OVERALL BENIGN PATTERN, SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AGAIN IN OUR
CURRENT DRY PATTERN.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS BUT NOTHING OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH QUIET WEATHER. PATCHY
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER THE TAF PERIOD
STARTS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........TWF
AVIATION..........13





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