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000
FXUS63 KLMK 251521
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1121 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

The forecast is on track to this point in the day. The batch of
clouds currently over the CWA will push off to the ESE while
undergoing some mixing, which should help to thin them out quicker.
The big question will remain if we clear out in time to warm to our
projected 70-75 degree range. See no reason to back off those
numbers at this point, but may have to with a later update if clouds
are slower to clear.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2014

Latest wator vapor imagery combined with 500 mb heights shows broad
ridging across the southern and central Plains while a weak
shortwave trough is pushing through the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, a cold front lies across northwest Illinois, which is
slated to pass through the forecast area later today. Southerly flow
out ahead of this front has kept temperatures mainly in the middle
to upper 40s with some of the sheltered, cooler spots dipping down
into lower 40s. Patchy light fog has developed across southern and
southeastern Kentucky thanks to a light surface wind field.

For today, there is good agreement between the 25.00z guidance in
regard to the frontal passage, which is expected to pass through
mainly dry. Forecast soundsings show the greatest moisture resides in
the 950-850mb layer, where some weak lift also is found. While the
deterministric models are dry, some of the hi-res solutions /HRRR
and NMM-East/ show what would likely be sprinkles moving across
southern IN and northern KY by mid-morning. Not confident in the
extent of this solution, so have continued dry forecast but could
not rule out a brief sprinkle or two. Mostly cloudy skies this
morning will give way to partly to mostly sunny skies later this
afternoon as the front moves through and drier air builds into the
region. Despite the early cloud cover, high temperatures look to
reach the lower to middle 70s and overall it will be a pleasant late
October day. Plan on mostly clear skies and seasonable low
temperatures tonight, in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

Northwesterly flow aloft on Sunday with high pressure at the surface
will result in another mostly sunny day with slightly above normal
temperatures. The forecast area will be within a 850 mb temperature
gradient, with the southwest areas likely to reach the middle/upper
70s while the northeast region near 70 to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Shortwave ridging Sunday night and low atmospheric moisture will
keep skies mostly clear.  At the surface high pressure will be
edging off to the east, putting us in weak return flow by morning,
which will help keep overnight temperatures up.  Lows by Monday
morning should range from around 50 in the Blue Grass (upper 40s in
the usual cool spots) to the middle 50s west of I-65.

Monday will be a pretty amazing day with sunshine and southwest
breezes taking temperatures into the 80 to 85 degree range, courtesy
of deep southwesterly flow between ridging to the east and a surface
cold front and upper trof approaching from the west. Lows Monday
night should be around 60 in the warm regime.

               Record Max for Oct 27     Record Warm Low for Oct 28
Louisville        84 (1940)               64 (1991 and 1984)
Lexington         87 (1940)               64 (1984)
Bowling Green     87 (1919)               65 (1984)
Frankfort         89 (1940)               61 (1899)

The aforementioned front will enter the picture Tuesday.  Models
have had a hard time pinning down the timing of this front, but
after looking at the past several runs of the GFS plus the EC and
GEM, as well as GEFS plumes, it seems a fropa somewhere around
Tuesday evening is likely.  The recent trend of the models to speed
up the front, after previous runs over the past few days tried
slowing it down, may be an aberration.  Regardless, we`ll have
increasing rain chances through the day Tuesday, peaking late
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, and then decreasing towards
Wednesday morning. The best dynamics will be to our north with this
system, but we should still have enough instability and shear for
some thunderstorm development.  Depending somewhat on just how much
sun we get Tuesday, southwest winds could gust into the 20-25mph
range by afternoon.  High temperatures Tuesday will also depend on
clouds and rain, but right now will go for 70s in the forecast. Lows
Tuesday night will range from the mid 40s in southern Indiana to
lower 50s around Lake Cumberland.

Wednesday and Wednesday night are looking generally dry as high
pressure moves through. Look for highs in the lower 60s and lows in
the lower 40s.

An upper level disturbance will slide overhead Thursday
afternoon/evening, but will be starved for moisture so will keep
PoPs very low.

The new ECMWF has come in with a radically new, wet, solution for
Friday, but it`s much too soon to jump on that so will stick with a
dry forecast (in line with the GFS) for Friday.

Thanks to ILN, JKL, and OHX for coord.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

As a cold front approaches the region later today, broken ceilings
in the 3-5 kft range will pass over the TAF sites, clearing out by
the early/mid afternoon hours. No precipitation is expected with the
frontal passage, but plan on a wind shift to the west then
eventually northwest by this evening. As cool Canadian high pressure
builds in late tonight, fog becomes a concern at BWG and LEX.
Soundings show light winds at the surface through about 3 kft by
early Sunday morning and guidance is hinting at fog restrictions.
For now, confidence is high enough to include MVFR visibiities at
BWG/LEX but BWG may end up IFR or worse based on some of the latest
model guidance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......13
Aviation.......ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 251035
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
635 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2014

Latest wator vapor imagery combined with 500 mb heights shows broad
ridging across the southern and central Plains while a weak
shortwave trough is pushing through the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, a cold front lies across northwest Illinois, which is
slated to pass through the forecast area later today. Southerly flow
out ahead of this front has kept temperatures mainly in the middle
to upper 40s with some of the sheltered, cooler spots dipping down
into lower 40s. Patchy light fog has developed across southern and
southeastern Kentucky thanks to a light surface wind field.

For today, there is good agreement between the 25.00z guidance in
regard to the frontal passage, which is expected to pass through
mainly dry. Forecast soundsings show the greatest moisture resides in
the 950-850mb layer, where some weak lift also is found. While the
deterministric models are dry, some of the hi-res solutions /HRRR
and NMM-East/ show what would likely be sprinkles moving across
southern IN and northern KY by mid-morning. Not confident in the
extent of this solution, so have continued dry forecast but could
not rule out a brief sprinkle or two. Mostly cloudy skies this
morning will give way to partly to mostly sunny skies later this
afternoon as the front moves through and drier air builds into the
region. Despite the early cloud cover, high temperatures look to
reach the lower to middle 70s and overall it will be a pleasant late
October day. Plan on mostly clear skies and seasonable low
temperatures tonight, in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

Northwesterly flow aloft on Sunday with high pressure at the surface
will result in another mostly sunny day with slightly above normal
temperatures. The forecast area will be within a 850 mb temperature
gradient, with the southwest areas likely to reach the middle/upper
70s while the northeast region near 70 to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Shortwave ridging Sunday night and low atmospheric moisture will
keep skies mostly clear.  At the surface high pressure will be
edging off to the east, putting us in weak return flow by morning,
which will help keep overnight temperatures up.  Lows by Monday
morning should range from around 50 in the Blue Grass (upper 40s in
the usual cool spots) to the middle 50s west of I-65.

Monday will be a pretty amazing day with sunshine and southwest
breezes taking temperatures into the 80 to 85 degree range, courtesy
of deep southwesterly flow between ridging to the east and a surface
cold front and upper trof approaching from the west. Lows Monday
night should be around 60 in the warm regime.

               Record Max for Oct 27     Record Warm Low for Oct 28
Louisville        84 (1940)               64 (1991 and 1984)
Lexington         87 (1940)               64 (1984)
Bowling Green     87 (1919)               65 (1984)
Frankfort         89 (1940)               61 (1899)

The aforementioned front will enter the picture Tuesday.  Models
have had a hard time pinning down the timing of this front, but
after looking at the past several runs of the GFS plus the EC and
GEM, as well as GEFS plumes, it seems a fropa somewhere around
Tuesday evening is likely.  The recent trend of the models to speed
up the front, after previous runs over the past few days tried
slowing it down, may be an aberration.  Regardless, we`ll have
increasing rain chances through the day Tuesday, peaking late
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, and then decreasing towards
Wednesday morning. The best dynamics will be to our north with this
system, but we should still have enough instability and shear for
some thunderstorm development.  Depending somewhat on just how much
sun we get Tuesday, southwest winds could gust into the 20-25mph
range by afternoon.  High temperatures Tuesday will also depend on
clouds and rain, but right now will go for 70s in the forecast. Lows
Tuesday night will range from the mid 40s in southern Indiana to
lower 50s around Lake Cumberland.

Wednesday and Wednesday night are looking generally dry as high
pressure moves through. Look for highs in the lower 60s and lows in
the lower 40s.

An upper level disturbance will slide overhead Thursday
afternoon/evening, but will be starved for moisture so will keep
PoPs very low.

The new ECMWF has come in with a radically new, wet, solution for
Friday, but it`s much too soon to jump on that so will stick with a
dry forecast (in line with the GFS) for Friday.

Thanks to ILN, JKL, and OHX for coord.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 634 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

As a cold front approaches the region later today, broken ceilings
in the 3-5 kft range will pass over the TAF sites, clearing out by
the early/mid afternoon hours. No precipitation is expected with the
frontal passage, but plan on a wind shift to the west then
eventually northwest by this evening. As cool Canadian high pressure
builds in late tonight, fog becomes a concern at BWG and LEX.
Soundings show light winds at the surface through about 3 kft by
early Sunday morning and guidance is hinting at fog restrictions.
For now, confidence is high enough to include MVFR visibiities at
BWG/LEX but BWG may end up IFR or worse based on some of the latest
model guidance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 251035
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
635 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2014

Latest wator vapor imagery combined with 500 mb heights shows broad
ridging across the southern and central Plains while a weak
shortwave trough is pushing through the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, a cold front lies across northwest Illinois, which is
slated to pass through the forecast area later today. Southerly flow
out ahead of this front has kept temperatures mainly in the middle
to upper 40s with some of the sheltered, cooler spots dipping down
into lower 40s. Patchy light fog has developed across southern and
southeastern Kentucky thanks to a light surface wind field.

For today, there is good agreement between the 25.00z guidance in
regard to the frontal passage, which is expected to pass through
mainly dry. Forecast soundsings show the greatest moisture resides in
the 950-850mb layer, where some weak lift also is found. While the
deterministric models are dry, some of the hi-res solutions /HRRR
and NMM-East/ show what would likely be sprinkles moving across
southern IN and northern KY by mid-morning. Not confident in the
extent of this solution, so have continued dry forecast but could
not rule out a brief sprinkle or two. Mostly cloudy skies this
morning will give way to partly to mostly sunny skies later this
afternoon as the front moves through and drier air builds into the
region. Despite the early cloud cover, high temperatures look to
reach the lower to middle 70s and overall it will be a pleasant late
October day. Plan on mostly clear skies and seasonable low
temperatures tonight, in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

Northwesterly flow aloft on Sunday with high pressure at the surface
will result in another mostly sunny day with slightly above normal
temperatures. The forecast area will be within a 850 mb temperature
gradient, with the southwest areas likely to reach the middle/upper
70s while the northeast region near 70 to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Shortwave ridging Sunday night and low atmospheric moisture will
keep skies mostly clear.  At the surface high pressure will be
edging off to the east, putting us in weak return flow by morning,
which will help keep overnight temperatures up.  Lows by Monday
morning should range from around 50 in the Blue Grass (upper 40s in
the usual cool spots) to the middle 50s west of I-65.

Monday will be a pretty amazing day with sunshine and southwest
breezes taking temperatures into the 80 to 85 degree range, courtesy
of deep southwesterly flow between ridging to the east and a surface
cold front and upper trof approaching from the west. Lows Monday
night should be around 60 in the warm regime.

               Record Max for Oct 27     Record Warm Low for Oct 28
Louisville        84 (1940)               64 (1991 and 1984)
Lexington         87 (1940)               64 (1984)
Bowling Green     87 (1919)               65 (1984)
Frankfort         89 (1940)               61 (1899)

The aforementioned front will enter the picture Tuesday.  Models
have had a hard time pinning down the timing of this front, but
after looking at the past several runs of the GFS plus the EC and
GEM, as well as GEFS plumes, it seems a fropa somewhere around
Tuesday evening is likely.  The recent trend of the models to speed
up the front, after previous runs over the past few days tried
slowing it down, may be an aberration.  Regardless, we`ll have
increasing rain chances through the day Tuesday, peaking late
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, and then decreasing towards
Wednesday morning. The best dynamics will be to our north with this
system, but we should still have enough instability and shear for
some thunderstorm development.  Depending somewhat on just how much
sun we get Tuesday, southwest winds could gust into the 20-25mph
range by afternoon.  High temperatures Tuesday will also depend on
clouds and rain, but right now will go for 70s in the forecast. Lows
Tuesday night will range from the mid 40s in southern Indiana to
lower 50s around Lake Cumberland.

Wednesday and Wednesday night are looking generally dry as high
pressure moves through. Look for highs in the lower 60s and lows in
the lower 40s.

An upper level disturbance will slide overhead Thursday
afternoon/evening, but will be starved for moisture so will keep
PoPs very low.

The new ECMWF has come in with a radically new, wet, solution for
Friday, but it`s much too soon to jump on that so will stick with a
dry forecast (in line with the GFS) for Friday.

Thanks to ILN, JKL, and OHX for coord.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 634 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

As a cold front approaches the region later today, broken ceilings
in the 3-5 kft range will pass over the TAF sites, clearing out by
the early/mid afternoon hours. No precipitation is expected with the
frontal passage, but plan on a wind shift to the west then
eventually northwest by this evening. As cool Canadian high pressure
builds in late tonight, fog becomes a concern at BWG and LEX.
Soundings show light winds at the surface through about 3 kft by
early Sunday morning and guidance is hinting at fog restrictions.
For now, confidence is high enough to include MVFR visibiities at
BWG/LEX but BWG may end up IFR or worse based on some of the latest
model guidance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 250721
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2014

Latest water vapor imagery combined with 500 mb heights shows broad
ridging across the southern and central Plains while a weak
shortwave trough is pushing through the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, a cold front lies across northwest Illinois, which is
slated to pass through the forecast area later today. Southerly flow
out ahead of this front has kept temperatures mainly in the middle
to upper 40s with some of the sheltered, cooler spots dipping down
into lower 40s. Patchy light fog has developed across southern and
southeastern Kentucky thanks to a light surface wind field.

For today, there is good agreement between the 25.00z guidance in
regard to the frontal passage, which is expected to pass through
mainly dry. Forecast soundings show the greatest moisture resides in
the 950-850 mb layer, where some weak lift also is found. While
the deterministic models are dry, some of the hi-res solutions
/HRRR and NMM-East/ show what would likely be sprinkles moving
across southern IN and northern KY by mid-morning. Not confident
in the extent of this solution, so have continued dry forecast but
could not rule out a brief sprinkle or two. Mostly cloudy skies
this morning will give way to partly to mostly sunny skies later
this afternoon as the front moves through and drier air builds
into the region. Despite the early cloud cover, high temperatures
look to reach the lower to middle 70s and overall it will be a
pleasant late October day. Plan on mostly clear skies and
seasonable low temperatures tonight, in the upper 40s to near 50
degrees.

Northwesterly flow aloft on Sunday with high pressure at the surface
will result in another mostly sunny day with slightly above normal
temperatures. The forecast area will be within a 850 mb temperature
gradient, with the southwest areas likely to reach the middle/upper
70s while the northeast region near 70 to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Shortwave ridging Sunday night and low atmospheric moisture will
keep skies mostly clear.  At the surface high pressure will be
edging off to the east, putting us in weak return flow by morning,
which will help keep overnight temperatures up.  Lows by Monday
morning should range from around 50 in the Blue Grass (upper 40s in
the usual cool spots) to the middle 50s west of I-65.

Monday will be a pretty amazing day with sunshine and southwest
breezes taking temperatures into the 80 to 85 degree range, courtesy
of deep southwesterly flow between ridging to the east and a surface
cold front and upper trof approaching from the west. Lows Monday
night should be around 60 in the warm regime.

               Record Max for Oct 27     Record Warm Low for Oct 28
Louisville        84 (1940)               64 (1991 and 1984)
Lexington         87 (1940)               64 (1984)
Bowling Green     87 (1919)               65 (1984)
Frankfort         89 (1940)               61 (1899)

The aforementioned front will enter the picture Tuesday.  Models
have had a hard time pinning down the timing of this front, but
after looking at the past several runs of the GFS plus the EC and
GEM, as well as GEFS plumes, it seems a fropa somewhere around
Tuesday evening is likely.  The recent trend of the models to speed
up the front, after previous runs over the past few days tried
slowing it down, may be an aberration.  Regardless, we`ll have
increasing rain chances through the day Tuesday, peaking late
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, and then decreasing towards
Wednesday morning. The best dynamics will be to our north with this
system, but we should still have enough instability and shear for
some thunderstorm development.  Depending somewhat on just how much
sun we get Tuesday, southwest winds could gust into the 20-25mph
range by afternoon.  High temperatures Tuesday will also depend on
clouds and rain, but right now will go for 70s in the forecast. Lows
Tuesday night will range from the mid 40s in southern Indiana to
lower 50s around Lake Cumberland.

Wednesday and Wednesday night are looking generally dry as high
pressure moves through. Look for highs in the lower 60s and lows in
the lower 40s.

An upper level disturbance will slide overhead Thursday
afternoon/evening, but will be starved for moisture so will keep
PoPs very low.

The new ECMWF has come in with a radically new, wet, solution for
Friday, but it`s much too soon to jump on that so will stick with a
dry forecast (in line with the GFS) for Friday.

Thanks to ILN, JKL, and OHX for coord.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

A weak cold front will pass through the region today with little
aviation impact to the TAF sites outside of a period of broken 3-4
kft ceilings from mid morning through early afternoon. Ahead of this
front though, weak high pressure and light winds will result in a
period of fog at BWG until around 13z. Continued previous forecast
for brief period of IFR visibilities but as the night continues,
forecast soundings show the deep light wind layer eroding as the
front approaches, so not expecting conditions lower than 2sm.

Otherwise, plan on a wind shift from southerly to westerly later
this morning at BWG/SDF/LEX, then eventually to the northwest late
in the period as the front sweeps through. Skies look to clear by
mid afternoon as a much drier airmass filters across the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 250516
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
116 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Some low cloudiness will arrive sometime tomorrow, but, overnight,
expect mostly clear skies with just some occasional high cirrus
clouds passing by.

Nearly calm winds in protected valley and river basins may allow
some fog to form towards the pre-dawn hours. Fog formation will be
most likely towards the Tennessee border and the Lake Cumberland
Region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper vort max is now centered over eastern KY, with our CWA
generally in a subsident regime behind this feature. Most of the
clouds have thinned and scattered, however a few clouds will remain
in the region for the afternoon and evening. Temperatures are
currently in the low and mid 60s, with a few locations likely on
their way to the upper 60s.

Do expect a mostly clear night, however do have potential for some
variable cloudiness at times, especially toward dawn. Will only
mention patchy fog coverage across our eastern and southeastern
zones, closest to the center of the surface high and far enough
removed from the light gradient winds that will pick up toward dawn.
Do expect to have a fairly wide range in low temperatures with the
coolest air across our eastern CWA in the low and mid 40s. Our NW
CWA will be milder around 50 for lows as some low clouds and a light
SW wind should take over toward dawn.

Will see a batch of lower clouds move into the area around sunrise
ahead of a weak frontal boundary that is set to move through later
tomorrow. Moisture looks just deep enough across southern Indiana
that we could squeeze out a sprinkle, however without the presence
of a stronger forcing mechanism would prefer to leave any mention
out for now. Otherwise, expect sky cover to go from mostly cloudy in
the morning, to seeing some breaks in the afternoon, especially in
our west. This will make out temperature forecast a bit tricky as
temperatures will be somewhat dependent on how much sun we see. Will
get an steady warm advective component ahead of the front also so
still feel pretty good about mostly low and mid 70s across the
region. A few NE counties in the Bluegrass may be confined to the
upper 60s.

The frontal boundary passes late tomorrow afternoon into the evening with
little more than a wind shift. Expect a mostly clear night with lows
mostly in the 45-50 range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The long term will feature a fairly active pattern in generally a
meridional flow across the CONUS which looks to become more
amplified toward the end of next week.

Sun/Mon look to be dry with warmer than normal temps as surface high
pressure and upper level ridging rule the region.  Mon (highs in the
lower 80s) will be noticeably warmer than Sun (highs in the 70s) due
to gusty southwest winds in return flow on the back side of the sfc
high pressure.  These winds will advect in unseasonably warm air
which may come close to record high temps on the 27th and record
warm low temps on the 28th.  Here are those records:

               Record Max for Oct 27     Record Warm Low for Oct 28
Louisville        84 (1940)               64 (1991 and previous yrs)
Lexington         87 (1940)               64 (1984)
Bowling Green     87 (1919)               65 (1984)
Frankfort         89 (1940)               61 (1899)

Clouds will be on the increase Tues with a cold front bringing rain
to the region late Tues into Wed.  This front looks to bring a band
of light, slow moving rain with a few rumbles of thunder through the
area mainly Tues night, but extending into Wed morning across south
central KY.  QPF amounts are expected to total less than a quarter
inch from this rainfall.  Temps should still warm solidly into the
mid 70s for highs Tues afternoon and then falling back into the
lower 60s for highs Wed afternoon.

For the end of the week, expect generally a cool pattern to dominate
as ridging builds over the Rockies with troughing over the Midwest
in response to this amplification.  Another light precipitation
chance may accompany an upper level shortwave trough in the
Thurs/Fri time frame.  Some long range models indicate a good cold
shot of air for next weekend (Nov 1 and 2) which may result in a
killing freeze for agricultural interests.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 0110 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

A weak cold front will pass through the region today with little
aviation impact to the TAF sites outside of a period of broken 3-4
kft ceilings from mid morning through early afternoon. Ahead of this
front though, weak high pressure and light winds will result in a
period of fog at BWG until around 13z. Continued previous forecast
for brief period of IFR visibilities but as the night continues,
forecast soundings show the deep light wind layer eroding as
southwesterly winds aloft increase, so not expecting conditions
lower than 2sm.

Otherwise, plan on a wind shift from southerly to westerly later
this morning at BWG/SDF/LEX, then eventually to the northwest late
in the period as the front sweeps through. Skies look to clear by
mid afternoon as a much drier airmass filters across the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......ZBT








000
FXUS63 KLMK 250130
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
930 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Some low cloudiness will arrive sometime tomorrow, but, overnight,
expect mostly clear skies with just some occasional high cirrus
clouds passing by.

Nearly calm winds in protected valley and river basins may allow
some fog to form towards the pre-dawn hours. Fog formation will be
most likely towards the Tennessee border and the Lake Cumberland
Region.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper vort max is now centered over eastern KY, with our CWA
generally in a subsident regime behind this feature. Most of the
clouds have thinned and scattered, however a few clouds will remain
in the region for the afternoon and evening. Temperatures are
currently in the low and mid 60s, with a few locations likely on
their way to the upper 60s.

Do expect a mostly clear night, however do have potential for some
variable cloudiness at times, especially toward dawn. Will only
mention patchy fog coverage across our eastern and southeastern
zones, closest to the center of the surface high and far enough
removed from the light gradient winds that will pick up toward dawn.
Do expect to have a fairly wide range in low temperatures with the
coolest air across our eastern CWA in the low and mid 40s. Our NW
CWA will be milder around 50 for lows as some low clouds and a light
SW wind should take over toward dawn.

Will see a batch of lower clouds move into the area around sunrise
ahead of a weak frontal boundary that is set to move through later
tomorrow. Moisture looks just deep enough across southern Indiana
that we could squeeze out a sprinkle, however without the presence
of a stronger forcing mechanism would prefer to leave any mention
out for now. Otherwise, expect sky cover to go from mostly cloudy in
the morning, to seeing some breaks in the afternoon, especially in
our west. This will make out temperature forecast a bit tricky as
temperatures will be somewhat dependent on how much sun we see. Will
get an steady warm advective component ahead of the front also so
still feel pretty good about mostly low and mid 70s across the
region. A few NE counties in the Bluegrass may be confined to the
upper 60s.

The frontal boundary passes late tomorrow afternoon into the evening with
little more than a wind shift. Expect a mostly clear night with lows
mostly in the 45-50 range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The long term will feature a fairly active pattern in generally a
meridional flow across the CONUS which looks to become more
amplified toward the end of next week.

Sun/Mon look to be dry with warmer than normal temps as surface high
pressure and upper level ridging rule the region.  Mon (highs in the
lower 80s) will be noticeably warmer than Sun (highs in the 70s) due
to gusty southwest winds in return flow on the back side of the sfc
high pressure.  These winds will advect in unseasonably warm air
which may come close to record high temps on the 27th and record
warm low temps on the 28th.  Here are those records:

               Record Max for Oct 27     Record Warm Low for Oct 28
Louisville        84 (1940)               64 (1991 and previous yrs)
Lexington         87 (1940)               64 (1984)
Bowling Green     87 (1919)               65 (1984)
Frankfort         89 (1940)               61 (1899)

Clouds will be on the increase Tues with a cold front bringing rain
to the region late Tues into Wed.  This front looks to bring a band
of light, slow moving rain with a few rumbles of thunder through the
area mainly Tues night, but extending into Wed morning across south
central KY.  QPF amounts are expected to total less than a quarter
inch from this rainfall.  Temps should still warm solidly into the
mid 70s for highs Tues afternoon and then falling back into the
lower 60s for highs Wed afternoon.

For the end of the week, expect generally a cool pattern to dominate
as ridging builds over the Rockies with troughing over the Midwest
in response to this amplification.  Another light precipitation
chance may accompany an upper level shortwave trough in the
Thurs/Fri time frame.  Some long range models indicate a good cold
shot of air for next weekend (Nov 1 and 2) which may result in a
killing freeze for agricultural interests.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Mostly clear skies will prevail overnight with just some passing
high level clouds. Some scattered lower level clouds may develop
during the afternoon Saturday with possible broken ceilings later in
the day.

Winds will stay light tonight, generally from the south southwest at
under 6kt, while staying mostly calm at BWG.

Fog is once again likely at BWG with probable MVFR ceilings at BWG.
Brief IFR visibilities at BWG may develop during the pre-dawn hours.

Scattered to occasionally broken cloud cover is possible Saturday.
Winds will generally stay from the southwest at around 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 242328
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
728 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper vort max is now centered over eastern KY, with our CWA
generally in a subsident regime behind this feature. Most of the
clouds have thinned and scattered, however a few clouds will remain
in the region for the afternoon and evening. Temperatures are
currently in the low and mid 60s, with a few locations likely on
their way to the upper 60s.

Do expect a mostly clear night, however do have potential for some
variable cloudiness at times, especially toward dawn. Will only
mention patchy fog coverage across our eastern and southeastern
zones, closest to the center of the surface high and far enough
removed from the light gradient winds that will pick up toward dawn.
Do expect to have a fairly wide range in low temperatures with the
coolest air across our eastern CWA in the low and mid 40s. Our NW
CWA will be milder around 50 for lows as some low clouds and a light
SW wind should take over toward dawn.

Will see a batch of lower clouds move into the area around sunrise
ahead of a weak frontal boundary that is set to move through later
tomorrow. Moisture looks just deep enough across southern Indiana
that we could squeeze out a sprinkle, however without the presence
of a stronger forcing mechanism would prefer to leave any mention
out for now. Otherwise, expect sky cover to go from mostly cloudy in
the morning, to seeing some breaks in the afternoon, especially in
our west. This will make out temperature forecast a bit tricky as
temperatures will be somewhat dependent on how much sun we see. Will
get an steady warm advective component ahead of the front also so
still feel pretty good about mostly low and mid 70s across the
region. A few NE counties in the Bluegrass may be confined to the
upper 60s.

The frontal boundary passes late tomorrow afternoon into the evening with
little more than a wind shift. Expect a mostly clear night with lows
mostly in the 45-50 range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The long term will feature a fairly active pattern in generally a
meridional flow across the CONUS which looks to become more
amplified toward the end of next week.

Sun/Mon look to be dry with warmer than normal temps as surface high
pressure and upper level ridging rule the region.  Mon (highs in the
lower 80s) will be noticeably warmer than Sun (highs in the 70s) due
to gusty southwest winds in return flow on the back side of the sfc
high pressure.  These winds will advect in unseasonably warm air
which may come close to record high temps on the 27th and record
warm low temps on the 28th.  Here are those records:

               Record Max for Oct 27     Record Warm Low for Oct 28
Louisville        84 (1940)               64 (1991 and previous yrs)
Lexington         87 (1940)               64 (1984)
Bowling Green     87 (1919)               65 (1984)
Frankfort         89 (1940)               61 (1899)

Clouds will be on the increase Tues with a cold front bringing rain
to the region late Tues into Wed.  This front looks to bring a band
of light, slow moving rain with a few rumbles of thunder through the
area mainly Tues night, but extending into Wed morning across south
central KY.  QPF amounts are expected to total less than a quarter
inch from this rainfall.  Temps should still warm solidly into the
mid 70s for highs Tues afternoon and then falling back into the
lower 60s for highs Wed afternoon.

For the end of the week, expect generally a cool pattern to dominate
as ridging builds over the Rockies with troughing over the Midwest
in response to this amplification.  Another light precipitation
chance may accompany an upper level shortwave trough in the
Thurs/Fri time frame.  Some long range models indicate a good cold
shot of air for next weekend (Nov 1 and 2) which may result in a
killing freeze for agricultural interests.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Mostly clear skies will prevail overnight with just some passing
high level clouds. Some scattered lower level clouds may develop
during the afternoon Saturday with possible broken ceilings later in
the day.

Winds will stay light tonight, generally from the south southwest at
under 6kt, while staying mostly calm at BWG.

Fog is once again likely at BWG with probable MVFR ceilings at BWG.
Brief IFR visibilities at BWG may develop during the pre-dawn hours.

Scattered to occasionally broken cloud cover is possible Saturday.
Winds will generally stay from the southwest at around 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 241911
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper vort max is now centered over eastern KY, with our CWA
generally in a subsident regime behind this feature. Most of the
clouds have thinned and scattered, however a few clouds will remain
in the region for the afternoon and evening. Temperatures are
currently in the low and mid 60s, with a few locations likely on
their way to the upper 60s.

Do expect a mostly clear night, however do have potential for some
variable cloudiness at times, especially toward dawn. Will only
mention patchy fog coverage across our eastern and southeastern
zones, closest to the center of the surface high and far enough
removed from the light gradient winds that will pick up toward dawn.
Do expect to have a fairly wide range in low temperatures with the
coolest air across our eastern CWA in the low and mid 40s. Our NW
CWA will be milder around 50 for lows as some low clouds and a light
SW wind should take over toward dawn.

Will see a batch of lower clouds move into the area around sunrise
ahead of a weak frontal boundary that is set to move through later
tomorrow. Moisture looks just deep enough across southern Indiana
that we could squeeze out a sprinkle, however without the presence
of a stronger forcing mechanism would prefer to leave any mention
out for now. Otherwise, expect sky cover to go from mostly cloudy in
the morning, to seeing some breaks in the afternoon, especially in
our west. This will make out temperature forecast a bit tricky as
temperatures will be somewhat dependent on how much sun we see. Will
get an steady warm advective component ahead of the front also so
still feel pretty good about mostly low and mid 70s across the
region. A few NE counties in the Bluegrass may be confined to the
upper 60s.

The frontal boundary passes late tomorrow afternoon into the evening with
little more than a wind shift. Expect a mostly clear night with lows
mostly in the 45-50 range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The long term will feature a fairly active pattern in generally a
meridional flow across the CONUS which looks to become more
amplified toward the end of next week.

Sun/Mon look to be dry with warmer than normal temps as surface high
pressure and upper level ridging rule the region.  Mon (highs in the
lower 80s) will be noticeably warmer than Sun (highs in the 70s) due
to gusty southwest winds in return flow on the back side of the sfc
high pressure.  These winds will advect in unseasonably warm air
which may come close to record high temps on the 27th and record
warm low temps on the 28th.  Here are those records:

               Record Max for Oct 27     Record Warm Low for Oct 28
Louisville        84 (1940)               64 (1991 and previous yrs)
Lexington         87 (1940)               64 (1984)
Bowling Green     87 (1919)               65 (1984)
Frankfort         89 (1940)               61 (1899)

Clouds will be on the increase Tues with a cold front bringing rain
to the region late Tues into Wed.  This front looks to bring a band
of light, slow moving rain with a few rumbles of thunder through the
area mainly Tues night, but extending into Wed morning across south
central KY.  QPF amounts are expected to total less than a quarter
inch from this rainfall.  Temps should still warm solidly into the
mid 70s for highs Tues afternoon and then falling back into the
lower 60s for highs Wed afternoon.

For the end of the week, expect generally a cool pattern to dominate
as ridging builds over the Rockies with troughing over the Midwest
in response to this amplification.  Another light precipitation
chance may accompany an upper level shortwave trough in the
Thurs/Fri time frame.  Some long range models indicate a good cold
shot of air for next weekend (Nov 1 and 2) which may result in a
killing freeze for agricultural interests.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the day. Thin layer
of lower clouds just above the MVFR/VFR threshold are dissipating to
the west of SDF/BWG, so will only mention Few-Sct coverage to start
the period. Expect only light winds, with any noticeable gradient
mainly out of the WSW.

A tricky forecast for tonight at the TAF sites as data and
persistence would suggest a chance for some brief visibility
restrictions toward dawn. However, not confident enough to mention
in the TAFs yet due to uncertainty in some cloud cover both in the
upper levels, and in a potential thin layer of clouds near the
surface. Will mention VFR for now, but potential for MVFR vis or
cigs can`t be ruled out.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 241705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1155 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Forecast is on track this morning as upper disturbance is pushing
east across the area. Sprinkles that had threatened southern Indiana
this morning have diminished, however ill deal with variable
cloudiness throughout the day. Temperatures look on pace to climb
to the mid and upper 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper level disturbance that slid southeastward from Illinois
into Indiana during the overnight hours will cross Kentucky this
morning and then move off to the southeast this afternoon.  This
feature will be responsible for a fair amount of cloudiness this
morning, and maybe even a sprinkle or two especially in southern
Indiana.  High pressure at the surface stretching from Texas to
Pennsylvania will keep winds light today. Temperatures this
afternoon will peak in the middle and upper 60s.

Tonight will be quiet with partly cloudy skies.  We will get into
some weak return flow as the aforementioned surface high sags to the
southeast and a cool front approaches from the northwest.  Also,
clouds will begin to increase towards Saturday morning, especially
in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  We should end up with a
sizable temperature difference across the area for lows, with mid
40s to around 50 in the northwest (more clouds, closer to
approaching front) and around 40 in the southeastern valleys (fewer
clouds, closer to the surface high).

On Saturday the cool front will enter the region but will be
weakening as it does so, and will only have shallow low level
moisture associated with it.  Clouds are expected, but not much in
the way of precipitation other than a sprinkle or two.  Right now
will aim for high temperatures in the upper 60s in the Blue Grass
and low to mid 70s elsewhere, though clouds and fropa timing will
have an effect on where we end up.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The start of the long term period will feature northwest flow aloft
over the Ohio Valley as a ridge amplifies across the Central
Plains.  This regime will turn to more southwesterly then more zonal
flow over the region through the period, making way for a
significant warmup followed by a return to cooler temperatures.

The long term period will start with a weak surface front pushing to
the east of the region Sunday morning.  However, this front will not
get very far to the southeast as an area of low pressure develops
across the Central Plains.  In response, this front will stall and
then begin to lift back to the north during the day on Sunday.
While the bulk of the warmer air will reside just to the west of the
region, the combination of the front sharpening and pushing north
coupled with expected sunshine, should yield temperatures in the
70s, perhaps upper 70s across southern KY.

Monday looks to be a very warm day, perhaps the last 80 degree day
of the year in some locations.  The warm front will push well to the
north, leaving the Ohio Valley fully within the warm sector.  This
seems to be a day where temperatures could overachieve as we will be
have a strong pressure gradient leading to good southwesterly
surface flow.  Additionally, forecast soundings do not show much in
the way of low-level moisture, which should limit any cloud cover to
passing high/mid-level clouds.  Therefore, have bumped temperatures
up a few degrees from the previous forecast, which puts readings in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The aforementioned surface low across the Central Plains will deepen
and push into southern Canada on Tuesday in response to an
approaching PV anomaly.  The best synoptic scale ascent will trek
well north of the Ohio Valley with this system, leaving the region
with just the trailing part of the cold front.  Given the amplified
upper-level regime, a deepening cyclone, and the fact that the Ohio
Valley will be on the trailing edge of the surface front, have
leaned on the slower end of guidance with the fropa.  This puts the
best precipitation chances into the region Tuesday night.  Given the
better dynamics passing to the north and still some questions
regarding timing, am a bit hesitant to raise pops too high at this
time range.  Therefore, will limit them to around 60%.

Guidance had disagreed with the evolution of the front as it passed
through the region, but the 24/00Z cycle has come into better
agreement regarding the front stalling across southern KY.  This
stalled front will keep precipitation chances across southern KY
Wednesday into Wednesday night.  With the frontal passage,
temperatures on Wednesday into Thursday will fall back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the day. Thin layer
of lower clouds just above the MVFR/VFR threshold are dissipating to
the west of SDF/BWG, so will only mention Few-Sct coverage to start
the period. Expect only light winds, with any noticeable gradient
mainly out of the WSW.

A tricky forecast for tonight at the TAF sites as data and
persistence would suggest a chance for some brief visibility
restrictions toward dawn. However, not confident enough to mention
in the TAFs yet due to uncertainty in some cloud cover both in the
upper levels, and in a potential thin layer of clouds near the
surface. Will mention VFR for now, but potential for MVFR vis or
cigs can`t be ruled out.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 241555
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1155 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Forecast is on track this morning as upper disturbance is pushing
east across the area. Sprinkles that had threatened southern Indiana
this morning have diminished, however ill deal with variable
cloudiness throughout the day. Temperatures look on pace to climb
to the mid and upper 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper level disturbance that slid southeastward from Illinois
into Indiana during the overnight hours will cross Kentucky this
morning and then move off to the southeast this afternoon.  This
feature will be responsible for a fair amount of cloudiness this
morning, and maybe even a sprinkle or two especially in southern
Indiana.  High pressure at the surface stretching from Texas to
Pennsylvania will keep winds light today. Temperatures this
afternoon will peak in the middle and upper 60s.

Tonight will be quiet with partly cloudy skies.  We will get into
some weak return flow as the aforementioned surface high sags to the
southeast and a cool front approaches from the northwest.  Also,
clouds will begin to increase towards Saturday morning, especially
in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  We should end up with a
sizable temperature difference across the area for lows, with mid
40s to around 50 in the northwest (more clouds, closer to
approaching front) and around 40 in the southeastern valleys (fewer
clouds, closer to the surface high).

On Saturday the cool front will enter the region but will be
weakening as it does so, and will only have shallow low level
moisture associated with it.  Clouds are expected, but not much in
the way of precipitation other than a sprinkle or two.  Right now
will aim for high temperatures in the upper 60s in the Blue Grass
and low to mid 70s elsewhere, though clouds and fropa timing will
have an effect on where we end up.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The start of the long term period will feature northwest flow aloft
over the Ohio Valley as a ridge amplifies across the Central
Plains.  This regime will turn to more southwesterly then more zonal
flow over the region through the period, making way for a
significant warmup followed by a return to cooler temperatures.

The long term period will start with a weak surface front pushing to
the east of the region Sunday morning.  However, this front will not
get very far to the southeast as an area of low pressure develops
across the Central Plains.  In response, this front will stall and
then begin to lift back to the north during the day on Sunday.
While the bulk of the warmer air will reside just to the west of the
region, the combination of the front sharpening and pushing north
coupled with expected sunshine, should yield temperatures in the
70s, perhaps upper 70s across southern KY.

Monday looks to be a very warm day, perhaps the last 80 degree day
of the year in some locations.  The warm front will push well to the
north, leaving the Ohio Valley fully within the warm sector.  This
seems to be a day where temperatures could overachieve as we will be
have a strong pressure gradient leading to good southwesterly
surface flow.  Additionally, forecast soundings do not show much in
the way of low-level moisture, which should limit any cloud cover to
passing high/mid-level clouds.  Therefore, have bumped temperatures
up a few degrees from the previous forecast, which puts readings in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The aforementioned surface low across the Central Plains will deepen
and push into southern Canada on Tuesday in response to an
approaching PV anomaly.  The best synoptic scale ascent will trek
well north of the Ohio Valley with this system, leaving the region
with just the trailing part of the cold front.  Given the amplified
upper-level regime, a deepening cyclone, and the fact that the Ohio
Valley will be on the trailing edge of the surface front, have
leaned on the slower end of guidance with the fropa.  This puts the
best precipitation chances into the region Tuesday night.  Given the
better dynamics passing to the north and still some questions
regarding timing, am a bit hesitant to raise pops too high at this
time range.  Therefore, will limit them to around 60%.

Guidance had disagreed with the evolution of the front as it passed
through the region, but the 24/00Z cycle has come into better
agreement regarding the front stalling across southern KY.  This
stalled front will keep precipitation chances across southern KY
Wednesday into Wednesday night.  With the frontal passage,
temperatures on Wednesday into Thursday will fall back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 719 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Patchy fog has developed across portions of the area early this
morning, but so far has avoided the TAF sites.  Nevertheless, will
still need to account for the possibility of some BR at BWG and LEX
for the first hour after sunrise.

A large shield of clouds coming in from the northwest will spread
across the area today, especially at SDF and LEX where ceilings are
expected, but should remain slightly VFR.

The clouds may clear out this evening before new clouds move in
after midnight, but any ceilings tonight should be VFR so we kept
the TAF simple rather than breaking it up into several lines of VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 241119
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
719 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper level disturbance that slid southeastward from Illinois
into Indiana during the overnight hours will cross Kentucky this
morning and then move off to the southeast this afternoon.  This
feature will be responsible for a fair amount of cloudiness this
morning, and maybe even a sprinkle or two especially in southern
Indiana.  High pressure at the surface stretching from Texas to
Pennsylvania will keep winds light today. Temperatures this
afternoon will peak in the middle and upper 60s.

Tonight will be quiet with partly cloudy skies.  We will get into
some weak return flow as the aforementioned surface high sags to the
southeast and a cool front approaches from the northwest.  Also,
clouds will begin to increase towards Saturday morning, especially
in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  We should end up with a
sizable temperature difference across the area for lows, with mid
40s to around 50 in the northwest (more clouds, closer to
approaching front) and around 40 in the southeastern valleys (fewer
clouds, closer to the surface high).

On Saturday the cool front will enter the region but will be
weakening as it does so, and will only have shallow low level
moisture associated with it.  Clouds are expected, but not much in
the way of precipitation other than a sprinkle or two.  Right now
will aim for high temperatures in the upper 60s in the Blue Grass
and low to mid 70s elsewhere, though clouds and fropa timing will
have an effect on where we end up.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The start of the long term period will feature northwest flow aloft
over the Ohio Valley as a ridge amplifies across the Central
Plains.  This regime will turn to more southwesterly then more zonal
flow over the region through the period, making way for a
significant warmup followed by a return to cooler temperatures.

The long term period will start with a weak surface front pushing to
the east of the region Sunday morning.  However, this front will not
get very far to the southeast as an area of low pressure develops
across the Central Plains.  In response, this front will stall and
then begin to lift back to the north during the day on Sunday.
While the bulk of the warmer air will reside just to the west of the
region, the combination of the front sharpening and pushing north
coupled with expected sunshine, should yield temperatures in the
70s, perhaps upper 70s across southern KY.

Monday looks to be a very warm day, perhaps the last 80 degree day
of the year in some locations.  The warm front will push well to the
north, leaving the Ohio Valley fully within the warm sector.  This
seems to be a day where temperatures could overachieve as we will be
have a strong pressure gradient leading to good southwesterly
surface flow.  Additionally, forecast soundings do not show much in
the way of low-level moisture, which should limit any cloud cover to
passing high/mid-level clouds.  Therefore, have bumped temperatures
up a few degrees from the previous forecast, which puts readings in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The aforementioned surface low across the Central Plains will deepen
and push into southern Canada on Tuesday in response to an
approaching PV anomaly.  The best synoptic scale ascent will trek
well north of the Ohio Valley with this system, leaving the region
with just the trailing part of the cold front.  Given the amplified
upper-level regime, a deepening cyclone, and the fact that the Ohio
Valley will be on the trailing edge of the surface front, have
leaned on the slower end of guidance with the fropa.  This puts the
best precipitation chances into the region Tuesday night.  Given the
better dynamics passing to the north and still some questions
regarding timing, am a bit hesitant to raise pops too high at this
time range.  Therefore, will limit them to around 60%.

Guidance had disagreed with the evolution of the front as it passed
through the region, but the 24/00Z cycle has come into better
agreement regarding the front stalling across southern KY.  This
stalled front will keep precipitation chances across southern KY
Wednesday into Wednesday night.  With the frontal passage,
temperatures on Wednesday into Thursday will fall back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 719 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Patchy fog has developed across portions of the area early this
morning, but so far has avoided the TAF sites.  Nevertheless, will
still need to account for the possibility of some BR at BWG and LEX
for the first hour after sunrise.

A large shield of clouds coming in from the northwest will spread
across the area today, especially at SDF and LEX where ceilings are
expected, but should remain slightly VFR.

The clouds may clear out this evening before new clouds move in
after midnight, but any ceilings tonight should be VFR so we kept
the TAF simple rather than breaking it up into several lines of VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 240707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper level disturbance that slid southeastward from Illinois
into Indiana during the overnight hours will cross Kentucky this
morning and then move off to the southeast this afternoon.  This
feature will be responsible for a fair amount of cloudiness this
morning, and maybe even a sprinkle or two especially in southern
Indiana.  High pressure at the surface stretching from Texas to
Pennsylvania will keep winds light today. Temperatures this
afternoon will peak in the middle and upper 60s.

Tonight will be quiet with partly cloudy skies.  We will get into
some weak return flow as the aforementioned surface high sags to the
southeast and a cool front approaches from the northwest.  Also,
clouds will begin to increase towards Saturday morning, especially
in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  We should end up with a
sizable temperature difference across the area for lows, with mid
40s to around 50 in the northwest (more clouds, closer to
approaching front) and around 40 in the southeastern valleys (fewer
clouds, closer to the surface high).

On Saturday the cool front will enter the region but will be
weakening as it does so, and will only have shallow low level
moisture associated with it.  Clouds are expected, but not much in
the way of precipitation other than a sprinkle or two.  Right now
will aim for high temperatures in the upper 60s in the Blue Grass
and low to mid 70s elsewhere, though clouds and fropa timing will
have an effect on where we end up.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The start of the long term period will feature northwest flow aloft
over the Ohio Valley as a ridge amplifies across the Central
Plains.  This regime will turn to more southwesterly then more zonal
flow over the region through the period, making way for a
significant warmup followed by a return to cooler temperatures.

The long term period will start with a weak surface front pushing to
the east of the region Sunday morning.  However, this front will not
get very far to the southeast as an area of low pressure develops
across the Central Plains.  In response, this front will stall and
then begin to lift back to the north during the day on Sunday.
While the bulk of the warmer air will reside just to the west of the
region, the combination of the front sharpening and pushing north
coupled with expected sunshine, should yield temperatures in the
70s, perhaps upper 70s across southern KY.

Monday looks to be a very warm day, perhaps the last 80 degree day
of the year in some locations.  The warm front will push well to the
north, leaving the Ohio Valley fully within the warm sector.  This
seems to be a day where temperatures could overachieve as we will be
have a strong pressure gradient leading to good southwesterly
surface flow.  Additionally, forecast soundings do not show much in
the way of low-level moisture, which should limit any cloud cover to
passing high/mid-level clouds.  Therefore, have bumped temperatures
up a few degrees from the previous forecast, which puts readings in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The aforementioned surface low across the Central Plains will deepen
and push into southern Canada on Tuesday in response to an
approaching PV anomaly.  The best synoptic scale ascent will trek
well north of the Ohio Valley with this system, leaving the region
with just the trailing part of the cold front.  Given the amplified
upper-level regime, a deepening cyclone, and the fact that the Ohio
Valley will be on the trailing edge of the surface front, have
leaned on the slower end of guidance with the fropa.  This puts the
best precipitation chances into the region Tuesday night.  Given the
better dynamics passing to the north and still some questions
regarding timing, am a bit hesitant to raise pops too high at this
time range.  Therefore, will limit them to around 60%.

Guidance had disagreed with the evolution of the front as it passed
through the region, but the 24/00Z cycle has come into better
agreement regarding the front stalling across southern KY.  This
stalled front will keep precipitation chances across southern KY
Wednesday into Wednesday night.  With the frontal passage,
temperatures on Wednesday into Thursday will fall back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1238 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Surface ridging over Kentucky will keep SDF and LEX VFR with light
winds through the TAF period.  Similar conditions will be found at
BWG, with the exception of the possibility of some MVFR BR early
this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 240438
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1238 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2014

High cirrus clouds, some pretty thick, have overspread much of the
Commonwealth and will help keep our lows a bit warmer than earlier
this morning. Patchy fog will not be as widespread as it was earlier
this morning. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 40s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
ridging across the Ohio Valley with a weak shortwave trough moving
through the mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is
centered across Kentucky/Ohio with mostly sunny skies and seasonably
cool temperatures this afternoon.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will swing through the area
this evening through Friday morning, bringing an increase in
mid/high level clouds. 23.12z guidance remains consistent with
previous forecast runs showing that as this system approaches, the
very dry mid and low levels will keep precipitation threat at a
minimum. Looking at hi-res models, some show hint of light rain or
sprinkles moving in from the northwest overnight, but expecting this
to be mainly virga. Kept previous dry forecast going for the area
but could not rule out a sprinkle or two early Friday morning.
Despite the increased cloud cover tonight, lows look to range from
the lower to middle 40s.

The upper level pattern on Friday becomes more northwesterly in the
wake of the shortwave trough. Plan on morning high clouds to give
way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon with seasonable temperatures.
The overall airmass will slowly moderate and this should allow
temperatures to climb a few degrees higher compared to today. 850 mb
temps rise from +8C to around +10C which supports highs in the
middle to upper 60s. Overall another pleasant October day for the
region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term will begin with northwesterly flow aloft and a weak
front moving through the area. This frontal passage should be dry
with just an increase in clouds expected. Behind the front high
pressure will build in at the surface and weak ridging will build in
aloft. Highs through the weekend will range from the upper 60s
across the Bluegrass to the mid 70s around the Bowling Green area.
Lows will warm from the mid and upper 40s Sunday morning to the
lower 50s Monday morning.

High pressure will shift off to the east Monday and a low pressure
system will approach from the west. Southerly winds will usher in
warmer air. Highs on Monday look quite warm, topping out in the
upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be on the warmer side as well on
Tuesday morning, only dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to move off to
the northeast through midweek, swinging a cold front through the
area. The models are in much better agreement with timing today. The
best chance for rain and a few thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
night across the region, so have bumped up pops to 50-60% for this
time frame. Showers will continue across east central KY Wednesday
morning as the front begins to slow. There may be a few showers in
the Lake Cumberland region Wednesday night if the front stalls near
the KY/TN border as well.

Temperatures Tuesday will remain quite warm, though with cloud cover
and precipitation moving in they are not expected to be as high as
Monday. Highs should top out in the lower to mid 70s. Wednesday will
be some 10 degrees cooler behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1238 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Surface ridging over Kentucky will keep SDF and LEX VFR with light
winds through the TAF period.  Similar conditions will be found at
BWG, with the exception of the possibility of some MVFR BR early
this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 240114
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
914 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2014

High cirrus clouds, some pretty thick, have overspread much of the
Commonwealth and will help keep our lows a bit warmer than earlier
this morning. Patchy fog will not be as widespread as it was earlier
this morning as well. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 40s.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
ridging across the Ohio Valley with a weak shortwave trough moving
through the mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is
centered across Kentucky/Ohio with mostly sunny skies and seasonably
cool temperatures this afternoon.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will swing through the area
this evening through Friday morning, bringing an increase in
mid/high level clouds. 23.12z guidance remains consistent with
previous forecast runs showing that as this system approaches, the
very dry mid and low levels will keep precipitation threat at a
minimum. Looking at hi-res models, some show hint of light rain or
sprinkles moving in from the northwest overnight, but expecting this
to be mainly virga. Kept previous dry forecast going for the area
but could not rule out a sprinkle or two early Friday morning.
Despite the increased cloud cover tonight, lows look to range from
the lower to middle 40s.

The upper level pattern on Friday becomes more northwesterly in the
wake of the shortwave trough. Plan on morning high clouds to give
way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon with seasonable temperatures.
The overall airmass will slowly moderate and this should allow
temperatures to climb a few degrees higher compared to today. 850 mb
temps rise from +8C to around +10C which supports highs in the
middle to upper 60s. Overall another pleasant October day for the
region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term will begin with northwesterly flow aloft and a weak
front moving through the area. This frontal passage should be dry
with just an increase in clouds expected. Behind the front high
pressure will build in at the surface and weak ridging will build in
aloft. Highs through the weekend will range from the upper 60s
across the Bluegrass to the mid 70s around the Bowling Green area.
Lows will warm from the mid and upper 40s Sunday morning to the
lower 50s Monday morning.

High pressure will shift off to the east Monday and a low pressure
system will approach from the west. Southerly winds will usher in
warmer air. Highs on Monday look quite warm, topping out in the
upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be on the warmer side as well on
Tuesday morning, only dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to move off to
the northeast through midweek, swinging a cold front through the
area. The models are in much better agreement with timing today. The
best chance for rain and a few thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
night across the region, so have bumped up pops to 50-60% for this
time frame. Showers will continue across east central KY Wednesday
morning as the front begins to slow. There may be a few showers in
the Lake Cumberland region Wednesday night if the front stalls near
the KY/TN border as well.

Temperatures Tuesday will remain quite warm, though with cloud cover
and precipitation moving in they are not expected to be as high as
Monday. Highs should top out in the lower to mid 70s. Wednesday will
be some 10 degrees cooler behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

An upper level shortwave trough will move in from the west tonight.
This system will spread high level clouds eastward over the TAF
sites overnight and into the morning hours. Occasional broken
ceilings above 4k ft may develop Friday afternoon with any ceilings
remaining above the MVFR threshold.

Think that fog development will be limited early Friday morning due
to increasing high and mid-level clouds arriving during the pre-dawn
hours. For now, included a MVFR group at BWG and kept SDF VFR
with the idea that the cloud cover will preclude extensive fog
development.

Light and variable winds overnight will stay light but become
westerly at under 7kt Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 232315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
ridging across the Ohio Valley with a weak shortwave trough moving
through the mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is
centered across Kentucky/Ohio with mostly sunny skies and seasonably
cool temperatures this afternoon.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will swing through the area
this evening through Friday morning, bringing an increase in
mid/high level clouds. 23.12z guidance remains consistent with
previous forecast runs showing that as this system approaches, the
very dry mid and low levels will keep precipitation threat at a
minimum. Looking at hi-res models, some show hint of light rain or
sprinkles moving in from the northwest overnight, but expecting this
to be mainly virga. Kept previous dry forecast going for the area
but could not rule out a sprinkle or two early Friday morning.
Despite the increased cloud cover tonight, lows look to range from
the lower to middle 40s.

The upper level pattern on Friday becomes more northwesterly in the
wake of the shortwave trough. Plan on morning high clouds to give
way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon with seasonable temperatures.
The overall airmass will slowly moderate and this should allow
temperatures to climb a few degrees higher compared to today. 850 mb
temps rise from +8C to around +10C which supports highs in the
middle to upper 60s. Overall another pleasant October day for the
region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term will begin with northwesterly flow aloft and a weak
front moving through the area. This frontal passage should be dry
with just an increase in clouds expected. Behind the front high
pressure will build in at the surface and weak ridging will build in
aloft. Highs through the weekend will range from the upper 60s
across the Bluegrass to the mid 70s around the Bowling Green area.
Lows will warm from the mid and upper 40s Sunday morning to the
lower 50s Monday morning.

High pressure will shift off to the east Monday and a low pressure
system will approach from the west. Southerly winds will usher in
warmer air. Highs on Monday look quite warm, topping out in the
upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be on the warmer side as well on
Tuesday morning, only dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to move off to
the northeast through midweek, swinging a cold front through the
area. The models are in much better agreement with timing today. The
best chance for rain and a few thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
night across the region, so have bumped up pops to 50-60% for this
time frame. Showers will continue across east central KY Wednesday
morning as the front begins to slow. There may be a few showers in
the Lake Cumberland region Wednesday night if the front stalls near
the KY/TN border as well.

Temperatures Tuesday will remain quite warm, though with cloud cover
and precipitation moving in they are not expected to be as high as
Monday. Highs should top out in the lower to mid 70s. Wednesday will
be some 10 degrees cooler behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

An upper level shortwave trough will move in from the west tonight.
This system will spread high level clouds eastward over the TAF
sites overnight and into the morning hours. Occasional broken
ceilings above 4k ft may develop Friday afternoon with any ceilings
remaining above the MVFR threshold.

Think that fog development will be limited early Friday morning due
to increasing high and mid-level clouds arriving during the pre-dawn
hours. For now, included a MVFR group at BWG and kept SDF VFR
with the idea that the cloud cover will preclude extensive fog
development.

Light and variable winds overnight will stay light but become
westerly at under 7kt Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JDG







000
FXUS63 KLMK 231923
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
ridging across the Ohio Valley with a weak shortwave trough moving
through the mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is
centered across Kentucky/Ohio with mostly sunny skies and seasonably
cool temperatures this afternoon.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will swing through the area
this evening through Friday morning, bringing an increase in
mid/high level clouds. 23.12z guidance remains consistent with
previous forecast runs showing that as this system approaches, the
very dry mid and low levels will keep precipitation threat at a
minimum. Looking at hi-res models, some show hint of light rain or
sprinkles moving in from the northwest overnight, but expecting this
to be mainly virga. Kept previous dry forecast going for the area
but could not rule out a sprinkle or two early Friday morning,
especially across the northern and eastern forecast area. Despite
the increased cloud cover tonight, lows look to range from the
lower to middle 40s.

The upper level pattern on Friday becomes more northwesterly in the
wake of the shortwave trough. Plan on morning high clouds to give
way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon with seasonable temperatures.
The overall airmass will slowly moderate and this should allow
temperatures to climb a few degrees higher compared to today. 850 mb
temps rise from +8C to around +10C which supports highs in the
middle to upper 60s. Overall another pleasant October day for the
region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term will begin with northwesterly flow aloft and a weak
front moving through the area. This frontal passage should be dry
with just an increase in clouds expected. Behind the front high
pressure will build in at the surface and weak ridging will build in
aloft. Highs through the weekend will range from the upper 60s
across the Bluegrass to the mid 70s around the Bowling Green area.
Lows will warm from the mid and upper 40s Sunday morning to the
lower 50s Monday morning.

High pressure will shift off to the east Monday and a low pressure
system will approach from the west. Southerly winds will usher in
warmer air. Highs on Monday look quite warm, topping out in the
upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be on the warmer side as well on
Tuesday morning, only dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to move off to
the northeast through midweek, swinging a cold front through the
area. The models are in much better agreement with timing today. The
best chance for rain and a few thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
night across the region, so have bumped up pops to 50-60% for this
time frame. Showers will continue across east central KY Wednesday
morning as the front begins to slow. There may be a few showers in
the Lake Cumberland region Wednesday night if the front stalls near
the KY/TN border as well.

Temperatures Tuesday will remain quite warm, though with cloud cover
and precipitation moving in they are not expected to be as high as
Monday. Highs should top out in the lower to mid 70s. Wednesday will
be some 10 degrees cooler behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

High pressure at the surface will remain across the Ohio River
Valley through the period, while an upper level shortwave trough
begins to move in from the west tonight. This system will spread
high level clouds eastward over the TAF sites later this evening and
through the overnight hours.

Main forecast challenge is fog development at BWG and LEX overnight.
Soundings show a very deep light wind layer up to 5-6 kft with near
saturation and calm winds at the surface. However, there should be a
scattered/broken high level cloud deck remaining across central KY.
Forecast guidance shows visibility restrictions developing and
various hi-res model forecasts also suggest the possibility for fog.
For now, included a MVFR group at BWG/LEX and kept SDF VFR with the
idea that the cloud cover will preclude extensive fog development.

Otherwise, light/variable winds Friday morning will become westerly
to northwesterly late in the period as a weak front passes through.
VFR conditions expected Friday after any morning fog burns off.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 231923
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
ridging across the Ohio Valley with a weak shortwave trough moving
through the mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is
centered across Kentucky/Ohio with mostly sunny skies and seasonably
cool temperatures this afternoon.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will swing through the area
this evening through Friday morning, bringing an increase in
mid/high level clouds. 23.12z guidance remains consistent with
previous forecast runs showing that as this system approaches, the
very dry mid and low levels will keep precipitation threat at a
minimum. Looking at hi-res models, some show hint of light rain or
sprinkles moving in from the northwest overnight, but expecting this
to be mainly virga. Kept previous dry forecast going for the area
but could not rule out a sprinkle or two early Friday morning,
especially across the northern and eastern forecast area. Despite
the increased cloud cover tonight, lows look to range from the
lower to middle 40s.

The upper level pattern on Friday becomes more northwesterly in the
wake of the shortwave trough. Plan on morning high clouds to give
way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon with seasonable temperatures.
The overall airmass will slowly moderate and this should allow
temperatures to climb a few degrees higher compared to today. 850 mb
temps rise from +8C to around +10C which supports highs in the
middle to upper 60s. Overall another pleasant October day for the
region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term will begin with northwesterly flow aloft and a weak
front moving through the area. This frontal passage should be dry
with just an increase in clouds expected. Behind the front high
pressure will build in at the surface and weak ridging will build in
aloft. Highs through the weekend will range from the upper 60s
across the Bluegrass to the mid 70s around the Bowling Green area.
Lows will warm from the mid and upper 40s Sunday morning to the
lower 50s Monday morning.

High pressure will shift off to the east Monday and a low pressure
system will approach from the west. Southerly winds will usher in
warmer air. Highs on Monday look quite warm, topping out in the
upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be on the warmer side as well on
Tuesday morning, only dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to move off to
the northeast through midweek, swinging a cold front through the
area. The models are in much better agreement with timing today. The
best chance for rain and a few thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
night across the region, so have bumped up pops to 50-60% for this
time frame. Showers will continue across east central KY Wednesday
morning as the front begins to slow. There may be a few showers in
the Lake Cumberland region Wednesday night if the front stalls near
the KY/TN border as well.

Temperatures Tuesday will remain quite warm, though with cloud cover
and precipitation moving in they are not expected to be as high as
Monday. Highs should top out in the lower to mid 70s. Wednesday will
be some 10 degrees cooler behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

High pressure at the surface will remain across the Ohio River
Valley through the period, while an upper level shortwave trough
begins to move in from the west tonight. This system will spread
high level clouds eastward over the TAF sites later this evening and
through the overnight hours.

Main forecast challenge is fog development at BWG and LEX overnight.
Soundings show a very deep light wind layer up to 5-6 kft with near
saturation and calm winds at the surface. However, there should be a
scattered/broken high level cloud deck remaining across central KY.
Forecast guidance shows visibility restrictions developing and
various hi-res model forecasts also suggest the possibility for fog.
For now, included a MVFR group at BWG/LEX and kept SDF VFR with the
idea that the cloud cover will preclude extensive fog development.

Otherwise, light/variable winds Friday morning will become westerly
to northwesterly late in the period as a weak front passes through.
VFR conditions expected Friday after any morning fog burns off.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 231726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2014

No major changes made to forecast today. Temperatures have been a
little slow to rise, but overall are trending toward highs in the
lower to middle 60s. Mostly sunny skies will be the rule, with high
level clouds on track to spread eastward over the region later this
afternoon and into the evening hours.

Issued at 903 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2014

With temperatures warming up in the upper 30s to 40s this morning,
the frost advisory was allowed to expire. Otherwise, very minor
tweaks were made to the forecast today. Stratocumulus is slowly
eroding across the eastern forecast area and should give way to
sunny skies in the next few hours. Otherwise, some high level
clouds will spill east over the area this afternoon but overall a
pleasant late October day is on tap for the region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak shortwave
ridging across the Ohio Valley.  However, a shortwave trough will
push in from the northwest tonight into Friday, bringing an increase
in cloud cover and a small chance for a few sprinkles.

Clouds continue to persist early this morning across portions of the
Northern Bluegrass.  However, there have been large breaks occurring
in these clouds across portions of southern Ohio, which will
continue to push southwest into KY.  The clouds have kept
temperatures up thus far overnight, which will likely inhibit
widespread frost formation across portions of the Northern
Bluegrass.  Elsewhere, temperatures have fallen into the 30s and
lower 40s.  These readings will continue to drop a few more degrees
over the coming hours, thus some frost formation still appears
likely, especially in sheltered areas.

The region will see abundant sunshine today as surface ridging
remains fixed over the Ohio Valley.  With the surface high parked
over the region, turbulent mixing will be limited.  Thus, despite
850mb temps rising to near 10C, surface temperatures will only top
out in the low to perhaps middle 60s.

For tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough will approach the
region.  This will make for an increase in cloud cover from west to
east through the overnight hours into Friday.  This shortwave trough
has limited deep moisture, and will be fighting a rather dry
near-surface airmass.  Therefore, do not expect anything more than
increased cloudiness and perhaps some virga/a few sprinkles out of
this system late tonight into Friday.  Lows tonight will dip into
the lower 40s, with highs on Friday recovering back into the middle
60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Weak high pressure at the surface Friday night will give way to a
cold front moving through the area Saturday. The front will be
weakening and only some shallow low level moisture will be
associated with it, so while we`ll see an increase in cloudiness it
appears the front will be free of measurable precipitation.  Lows
Friday night and Saturday night should mostly be in the 40s.  Highs
on Saturday ahead of the front may be able to rise into the 70s,
though that will depend in part on just how much cloudiness there
is.  The numbers that are in the forecast right now may be a little
too optimistic.

Sunday through Monday night high pressure over the southeastern U.S.
will keep us dry.  Sunday will be cool with temps in the 60s as the
high is just about overhead.  On Monday, though, we`ll be in return
flow behind the high and ahead of an approaching cold front.
Southerly breezes should help to propel us well into the 70s.

That cold front will draw closer on Tuesday but will remain to our
west, with another day in the 70s in store for southern Indiana and
central Kentucky.  Unsurprisingly, the models have trended this
front slower, and it looks like the daylight hours Tuesday may be
dry, especially east and southeast of Louisville.

The front will then sweep through Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Leaned more on the GFS for this forecast since it has begun to show
some consistency over the past couple of runs.  The EC has varied
quite a bit from run to run, and the operational run doesn`t look
much like the ensemble mean.  Given that, it looks like we should
have a band of showers, and maybe a few rumbles of thunder, pass
through the entire region Tuesday night, with possible redevelopment
over Kentucky on Wednesday.  Given all this, we have reduced PoPs
Tuesday, kept chance PoPs Tuesday night, and increased PoPs on
Wednesday.

No frosts or freezes are expected through the 30th.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

High pressure at the surface will remain across the Ohio River
Valley through the period, while an upper level shortwave trough
begins to move in from the west tonight. This system will spread
high level clouds eastward over the TAF sites later this evening and
through the overnight hours.

Main forecast challenge is fog development at BWG and LEX overnight.
Soundings show a very deep light wind layer up to 5-6 kft with near
saturation and calm winds at the surface. However, there should be a
scattered/broken high level cloud deck remaining across central KY
overnight. Forecast guidance shows visibility restrictions
developing and various hi-res model forecasts also suggest the
possibility for fog. For now, included a MVFR group at BWG/LEX and
kept SDF VFR with the idea that the cloud cover will preclude
extensive fog development.

Otherwise, light/variable winds Friday morning will become westerly
to northwesterly late in the period as a weak front passes through.
VFR conditions expected Friday after any morning fog burns off.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 231303
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
903 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 903 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2014

With temperatures warming up in the upper 30s to 40s this morning,
the frost advisory was allowed to expire. Otherwise, very minor
tweaks were made to the forecast today. Stratocumulus is slowly
eroding across the eastern forecast area and should give way to
sunny skies in the next few hours. Otherwise, some high level
clouds will spill east over the area this afternoon but overall a
pleasant late October day is on tap for the region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak shortwave
ridging across the Ohio Valley.  However, a shortwave trough will
push in from the northwest tonight into Friday, bringing an increase
in cloud cover and a small chance for a few sprinkles.

Clouds continue to persist early this morning across portions of the
Northern Bluegrass.  However, there have been large breaks occurring
in these clouds across portions of southern Ohio, which will
continue to push southwest into KY.  The clouds have kept
temperatures up thus far overnight, which will likely inhibit
widespread frost formation across portions of the Northern
Bluegrass.  Elsewhere, temperatures have fallen into the 30s and
lower 40s.  These readings will continue to drop a few more degrees
over the coming hours, thus some frost formation still appears
likely, especially in sheltered areas.

The region will see abundant sunshine today as surface ridging
remains fixed over the Ohio Valley.  With the surface high parked
over the region, turbulent mixing will be limited.  Thus, despite
850mb temps rising to near 10C, surface temperatures will only top
out in the low to perhaps middle 60s.

For tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough will approach the
region.  This will make for an increase in cloud cover from west to
east through the overnight hours into Friday.  This shortwave trough
has limited deep moisture, and will be fighting a rather dry
near-surface airmass.  Therefore, do not expect anything more than
increased cloudiness and perhaps some virga/a few sprinkles out of
this system late tonight into Friday.  Lows tonight will dip into
the lower 40s, with highs on Friday recovering back into the middle
60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Weak high pressure at the surface Friday night will give way to a
cold front moving through the area Saturday. The front will be
weakening and only some shallow low level moisture will be
associated with it, so while we`ll see an increase in cloudiness it
appears the front will be free of measurable precipitation.  Lows
Friday night and Saturday night should mostly be in the 40s.  Highs
on Saturday ahead of the front may be able to rise into the 70s,
though that will depend in part on just how much cloudiness there
is.  The numbers that are in the forecast right now may be a little
too optimistic.

Sunday through Monday night high pressure over the southeastern U.S.
will keep us dry.  Sunday will be cool with temps in the 60s as the
high is just about overhead.  On Monday, though, we`ll be in return
flow behind the high and ahead of an approaching cold front.
Southerly breezes should help to propel us well into the 70s.

That cold front will draw closer on Tuesday but will remain to our
west, with another day in the 70s in store for southern Indiana and
central Kentucky.  Unsurprisingly, the models have trended this
front slower, and it looks like the daylight hours Tuesday may be
dry, especially east and southeast of Louisville.

The front will then sweep through Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Leaned more on the GFS for this forecast since it has begun to show
some consistency over the past couple of runs.  The EC has varied
quite a bit from run to run, and the operational run doesn`t look
much like the ensemble mean.  Given that, it looks like we should
have a band of showers, and maybe a few rumbles of thunder, pass
through the entire region Tuesday night, with possible redevelopment
over Kentucky on Wednesday.  Given all this, we have reduced PoPs
Tuesday, kept chance PoPs Tuesday night, and increased PoPs on
Wednesday.

No frosts or freezes are expected through the 30th.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 642 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The MVFR stratus deck continues near KLEX early this morning.
Additionally, shallow ground fog has led to IFR vsbys at KBWG.  Each
of these will quickly dissipate after sunrise, leading to mainly
clear skies and VFR conditions.  Winds will be light and variable
today into tonight as surface high pressure passes through the
region.

For tonight, guidance suggests we may once again see some light fog
at KBWG and KLEX.  However, think increasing high-level clouds
should help to temper this threat, thus will no include any mention
at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 231044
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
644 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak shortwave
ridging across the Ohio Valley.  However, a shortwave trough will
push in from the northwest tonight into Friday, bringing an increase
in cloud cover and a small chance for a few sprinkles.

Clouds continue to persist early this morning across portions of the
Northern Bluegrass.  However, there have been large breaks occurring
in these clouds across portions of southern Ohio, which will
continue to push southwest into KY.  The clouds have kept
temperatures up thus far overnight, which will likely inhibit
widespread frost formation across portions of the Northern
Bluegrass.  Elsewhere, temperatures have fallen into the 30s and
lower 40s.  These readings will continue to drop a few more degrees
over the coming hours, thus some frost formation still appears
likely, especially in sheltered areas.

The region will see abundant sunshine today as surface ridging
remains fixed over the Ohio Valley.  With the surface high parked
over the region, turbulent mixing will be limited.  Thus, despite
850mb temps rising to near 10C, surface temperatures will only top
out in the low to perhaps middle 60s.

For tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough will approach the
region.  This will make for an increase in cloud cover from west to
east through the overnight hours into Friday.  This shortwave trough
has limited deep moisture, and will be fighting a rather dry
near-surface airmass.  Therefore, do not expect anything more than
increased cloudiness and perhaps some virga/a few sprinkles out of
this system late tonight into Friday.  Lows tonight will dip into
the lower 40s, with highs on Friday recovering back into the middle
60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Weak high pressure at the surface Friday night will give way to a
cold front moving through the area Saturday. The front will be
weakening and only some shallow low level moisture will be
associated with it, so while we`ll see an increase in cloudiness it
appears the front will be free of measurable precipitation.  Lows
Friday night and Saturday night should mostly be in the 40s.  Highs
on Saturday ahead of the front may be able to rise into the 70s,
though that will depend in part on just how much cloudiness there
is.  The numbers that are in the forecast right now may be a little
too optimistic.

Sunday through Monday night high pressure over the southeastern U.S.
will keep us dry.  Sunday will be cool with temps in the 60s as the
high is just about overhead.  On Monday, though, we`ll be in return
flow behind the high and ahead of an approaching cold front.
Southerly breezes should help to propel us well into the 70s.

That cold front will draw closer on Tuesday but will remain to our
west, with another day in the 70s in store for southern Indiana and
central Kentucky.  Unsurprisingly, the models have trended this
front slower, and it looks like the daylight hours Tuesday may be
dry, especially east and southeast of Louisville.

The front will then sweep through Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Leaned more on the GFS for this forecast since it has begun to show
some consistency over the past couple of runs.  The EC has varied
quite a bit from run to run, and the operational run doesn`t look
much like the ensemble mean.  Given that, it looks like we should
have a band of showers, and maybe a few rumbles of thunder, pass
through the entire region Tuesday night, with possible redevelopment
over Kentucky on Wednesday.  Given all this, we have reduced PoPs
Tuesday, kept chance PoPs Tuesday night, and increased PoPs on
Wednesday.

No frosts or freezes are expected through the 30th.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 642 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The MVFR stratus deck continues near KLEX early this morning.
Additionally, shallow ground fog has led to IFR vsbys at KBWG.  Each
of these will quickly dissipate after sunrise, leading to mainly
clear skies and VFR conditions.  Winds will be light and variable
today into tonight as surface high pressure passes through the
region.

For tonight, guidance suggests we may once again see some light fog
at KBWG and KLEX.  However, think increasing high-level clouds
should help to temper this threat, thus will no include any mention
at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ023>031-038-045-046-053-054-061>066-070>078-081-082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230714
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak shortwave
ridging across the Ohio Valley.  However, a shortwave trough will
push in from the northwest tonight into Friday, bringing an increase
in cloud cover and a small chance for a few sprinkles.

Clouds continue to persist early this morning across portions of the
Northern Bluegrass.  However, there have been large breaks occurring
in these clouds across portions of southern Ohio, which will
continue to push southwest into KY.  The clouds have kept
temperatures up thus far overnight, which will likely inhibit
widespread frost formation across portions of the Northern
Bluegrass.  Elsewhere, temperatures have fallen into the 30s and
lower 40s.  These readings will continue to drop a few more degrees
over the coming hours, thus some frost formation still appears
likely, especially in sheltered areas.

The region will see abundant sunshine today as surface ridging
remains fixed over the Ohio Valley.  With the surface high parked
over the region, turbulent mixing will be limited.  Thus, despite
850mb temps rising to near 10C, surface temperatures will only top
out in the low to perhaps middle 60s.

For tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough will approach the
region.  This will make for an increase in cloud cover from west to
east through the overnight hours into Friday.  This shortwave trough
has limited deep moisture, and will be fighting a rather dry
near-surface airmass.  Therefore, do not expect anything more than
increased cloudiness and perhaps some virga/a few sprinkles out of
this system late tonight into Friday.  Lows tonight will dip into
the lower 40s, with highs on Friday recovering back into the middle
60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Weak high pressure at the surface Friday night will give way to a
cold front moving through the area Saturday. The front will be
weakening and only some shallow low level moisture will be
associated with it, so while we`ll see an increase in cloudiness it
appears the front will be free of measurable precipitation.  Lows
Friday night and Saturday night should mostly be in the 40s.  Highs
on Saturday ahead of the front may be able to rise into the 70s,
though that will depend in part on just how much cloudiness there
is.  The numbers that are in the forecast right now may be a little
too optimistic.

Sunday through Monday night high pressure over the southeastern U.S.
will keep us dry.  Sunday will be cool with temps in the 60s as the
high is just about overhead.  On Monday, though, we`ll be in return
flow behind the high and ahead of an approaching cold front.
Southerly breezes should help to propel us well into the 70s.

That cold front will draw closer on Tuesday but will remain to our
west, with another day in the 70s in store for southern Indiana and
central Kentucky.  Unsurprisingly, the models have trended this
front slower, and it looks like the daylight hours Tuesday may be
dry, especially east and southeast of Louisville.

The front will then sweep through Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Leaned more on the GFS for this forecast since it has begun to show
some consistency over the past couple of runs.  The EC has varied
quite a bit from run to run, and the operational run doesn`t look
much like the ensemble mean.  Given that, it looks like we should
have a band of showers, and maybe a few rumbles of thunder, pass
through the entire region Tuesday night, with possible redevelopment
over Kentucky on Wednesday.  Given all this, we have reduced PoPs
Tuesday, kept chance PoPs Tuesday night, and increased PoPs on
Wednesday.

No frosts or freezes are expected through the 30th.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The near-term TAF concern continues to be the persistent MVFR
stratus deck near KLEX.  Given northeast flow at this cloud level,
expect this deck to persist at KLEX for at least the next few
hours.  There may be some breaks at times, but will continue a
broken MVFR deck there into the mid-morning hours.

Some shallow ground fog is possible at KBWG this morning.  However,
guidance has come in a bit more optimistic, and depressions are
still at 4 degrees, so will limit any vsby restrictions to just a
TEMPO group with this issuance.

Otherwise, today will feature just some passing high clouds at all
sites with VFR conditions persisting.  Winds will be light and
variable as a surface ridge crosses the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ023>031-038-045-046-053-054-061>066-070>078-081-082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230458
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very persistent strato-cu cloud cover continues over the Bluegrass
this evening. The western edge of these clouds are stationary and
lie along a north south line right around Frankfort. Do not think
that the Bluegrass will clear out until the early morning hours.
Patchy frost is still possible across areas where clearing has
already taken place.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The near-term TAF concern continues to be the persistent MVFR
stratus deck near KLEX.  Given northeast flow at this cloud level,
expect this deck to persist at KLEX for at least the next few
hours.  There may be some breaks at times, but will continue a
broken MVFR deck there into the mid-morning hours.

Some shallow ground fog is possible at KBWG this morning.  However,
guidance has come in a bit more optimistic, and depressions are
still at 4 degrees, so will limit any vsby restrictions to just a
TEMPO group with this issuance.

Otherwise, today will feature just some passing high clouds at all
sites with VFR conditions persisting.  Winds will be light and
variable as a surface ridge crosses the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     this morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-
     081-082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     this morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230458
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very persistent strato-cu cloud cover continues over the Bluegrass
this evening. The western edge of these clouds are stationary and
lie along a north south line right around Frankfort. Do not think
that the Bluegrass will clear out until the early morning hours.
Patchy frost is still possible across areas where clearing has
already taken place.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The near-term TAF concern continues to be the persistent MVFR
stratus deck near KLEX.  Given northeast flow at this cloud level,
expect this deck to persist at KLEX for at least the next few
hours.  There may be some breaks at times, but will continue a
broken MVFR deck there into the mid-morning hours.

Some shallow ground fog is possible at KBWG this morning.  However,
guidance has come in a bit more optimistic, and depressions are
still at 4 degrees, so will limit any vsby restrictions to just a
TEMPO group with this issuance.

Otherwise, today will feature just some passing high clouds at all
sites with VFR conditions persisting.  Winds will be light and
variable as a surface ridge crosses the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     this morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-
     081-082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     this morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230100
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very persistent strato-cu cloud cover continues over the Bluegrass
this evening. The western edge of these clouds are stationary and
lie along a north south line right around Frankfort. Do not think
that the Bluegrass will clear out until the early morning hours.
Patchy frost is still possible across areas where clearing has
already taken place.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Clear skies are expected at SDF and BWG tonight and Thursday with no
obstructions to visibilities.

Persistent low strato-cu continues at LEX, with the west edge of the
cloud shield just to the west of the airport. Ceilings are currently
right near 3k feet, near the MVFR-VFR threshold. Clearing at LEX
will slowly develop this evening with clear skies expected towards
midnight and for much of Thursday.

Expect light northeasterly winds of 5kt or less overnight and
Thursday morning before becoming light and variable by afternoon.
With nearly calm winds expected overnight at BWG and LEX, some light
patchy fog may develop towards morning and bring a possibility of
MVFR visibilities, which will improve shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230100
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very persistent strato-cu cloud cover continues over the Bluegrass
this evening. The western edge of these clouds are stationary and
lie along a north south line right around Frankfort. Do not think
that the Bluegrass will clear out until the early morning hours.
Patchy frost is still possible across areas where clearing has
already taken place.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Clear skies are expected at SDF and BWG tonight and Thursday with no
obstructions to visibilities.

Persistent low strato-cu continues at LEX, with the west edge of the
cloud shield just to the west of the airport. Ceilings are currently
right near 3k feet, near the MVFR-VFR threshold. Clearing at LEX
will slowly develop this evening with clear skies expected towards
midnight and for much of Thursday.

Expect light northeasterly winds of 5kt or less overnight and
Thursday morning before becoming light and variable by afternoon.
With nearly calm winds expected overnight at BWG and LEX, some light
patchy fog may develop towards morning and bring a possibility of
MVFR visibilities, which will improve shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 222319
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
719 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Clear skies are expected at SDF and BWG tonight and Thursday with no
obstructions to visibilities.

Persistent low strato-cu continues at LEX, with the west edge of the
cloud shield just to the west of the airport. Ceilings are currently
right near 3k feet, near the MVFR-VFR threshold. Clearing at LEX
will slowly develop this evening with clear skies expected towards
midnight and for much of Thursday.

Expect light northeasterly winds of 5kt or less overnight and
Thursday morning before becoming light and variable by afternoon.
With nearly calm winds expected overnight at BWG and LEX, some light
patchy fog may develop towards morning and bring a possibility of
MVFR visibilities, which will improve shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221912
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The most immediate TAF concern is at LEX this afternoon as low
clouds continue to remain over the TAF site.  They will likely
bounce between SCT and BKN this afternoon just under 2 kft.  These
low clouds look mostly diurnally driven so do expect them to burn
off around or after sunset with conditions returning to VFR at LEX.
All TAF sites stand a chance at MVFR fog tomorrow morning around
sunrise.  Crossover temps and NAM soundings look favorable, however,
believe the light NE wind overnight will allow slight dry air
advection which should limit fog intensity.  Thus, will continue
MVFR vsbys and monitor environmental conditions closely this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221729
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Updated the forecast to tweak sky cover grids to current satellite
trends.  The Bluegrass should see low clouds through the morning
hours before becoming only partly cloudy.  Also increased high temps
for today since we overachieved on high temps yesterday and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected over the region today.
High temps should range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost likely across the region late tonight...

Cyclonic flow around a stacked low pressure system along the
mid-Atlantic coast is beginning to lose its grip on the Ohio Valley.
One more lobe of low clouds will pinwheel south across the Bluegrass
region this morning, but should give way to pleasant fall conditions
by midday. That will leave us with a temperature forecast for the
balance of the short term, and that is significant due to the
potential for frost tonight.

High pressure centered over Wisconsin this morning will modify
slightly as it builds southeast today, leaving a weaker ridge axis
over Indiana and central Kentucky tonight. This along with clear
skies will mean ideal radiational cooling conditions, allowing temps
to easily drop into the 30s. Look for mainly upper 30s in the cities
and west of I-65, but most rural locations across the Bluegrass
should dip into the mid 30s easily. Can`t even rule out a freeze in
some of the more sheltered valleys. Will go with areas of frost from
the Bluegrass region south to Lake Cumberland, with just patchy
frost across most of the remainder of the area. Based on
coordination with neighboring WFOs, will leave the issuance of any
frost/freeze headlines to the day crew.

Daytime temps will run below climo, but some uncertainty as to just
how much. Temps have overachieved recently, but the shallow cold air
and N-NE flow favors cooler temps. Will still lean toward the warmer
GFS MOS given Tuesday`s overachieving temps to our NW.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

A weak shortwave trof will move through the region at the beginning
of the long term, and may bring a few instances of sprinkles or
light rain to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky late
Thursday night into early Friday morning.  High pressure building to
our south will cut off any substantial moisture supply, though, so
most locations will experience increasing clouds but dry conditions.
Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s, but the eastern
valleys will slip into the upper 30s. Decided to go on the cool side
for high temperatures Friday given expected clouds, but readings
should still peak in the 60s.

Weak surface ridging will give us quiet weather Friday night with
low temperatures in the 40s. On Saturday a cold front will push
through from the northwest, but it will be weakening as it does so
and will be bereft of any deep moisture.  So, the forecast will
remain dry, with highs in the 60s.

Saturday night through Monday night high pressure will travel from
the Red River of the North to Cape Hatteras, continuing our placid
weather.  Low temperatures during this period will moderate from mid
40s to mid 50s, and highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west and bring a chance
of showers, especially by afternoon west through north of
Louisville. Highs will reach the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The most immediate TAF concern is at LEX this afternoon as low
clouds continue to remain over the TAF site.  They will likely
bounce between SCT and BKN this afternoon just under 2 kft.  These
low clouds look mostly diurnally driven so do expect them to burn
off around or after sunset with conditions returning to VFR at LEX.
All TAF sites stand a chance at MVFR fog tomorrow morning around
sunrise.  Crossover temps and NAM soundings look favorable, however,
believe the light NE wind overnight will allow slight dry air
advection which should limit fog intensity.  Thus, will continue
MVFR vsbys and monitor environmental conditions closely this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221729
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Updated the forecast to tweak sky cover grids to current satellite
trends.  The Bluegrass should see low clouds through the morning
hours before becoming only partly cloudy.  Also increased high temps
for today since we overachieved on high temps yesterday and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected over the region today.
High temps should range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost likely across the region late tonight...

Cyclonic flow around a stacked low pressure system along the
mid-Atlantic coast is beginning to lose its grip on the Ohio Valley.
One more lobe of low clouds will pinwheel south across the Bluegrass
region this morning, but should give way to pleasant fall conditions
by midday. That will leave us with a temperature forecast for the
balance of the short term, and that is significant due to the
potential for frost tonight.

High pressure centered over Wisconsin this morning will modify
slightly as it builds southeast today, leaving a weaker ridge axis
over Indiana and central Kentucky tonight. This along with clear
skies will mean ideal radiational cooling conditions, allowing temps
to easily drop into the 30s. Look for mainly upper 30s in the cities
and west of I-65, but most rural locations across the Bluegrass
should dip into the mid 30s easily. Can`t even rule out a freeze in
some of the more sheltered valleys. Will go with areas of frost from
the Bluegrass region south to Lake Cumberland, with just patchy
frost across most of the remainder of the area. Based on
coordination with neighboring WFOs, will leave the issuance of any
frost/freeze headlines to the day crew.

Daytime temps will run below climo, but some uncertainty as to just
how much. Temps have overachieved recently, but the shallow cold air
and N-NE flow favors cooler temps. Will still lean toward the warmer
GFS MOS given Tuesday`s overachieving temps to our NW.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

A weak shortwave trof will move through the region at the beginning
of the long term, and may bring a few instances of sprinkles or
light rain to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky late
Thursday night into early Friday morning.  High pressure building to
our south will cut off any substantial moisture supply, though, so
most locations will experience increasing clouds but dry conditions.
Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s, but the eastern
valleys will slip into the upper 30s. Decided to go on the cool side
for high temperatures Friday given expected clouds, but readings
should still peak in the 60s.

Weak surface ridging will give us quiet weather Friday night with
low temperatures in the 40s. On Saturday a cold front will push
through from the northwest, but it will be weakening as it does so
and will be bereft of any deep moisture.  So, the forecast will
remain dry, with highs in the 60s.

Saturday night through Monday night high pressure will travel from
the Red River of the North to Cape Hatteras, continuing our placid
weather.  Low temperatures during this period will moderate from mid
40s to mid 50s, and highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west and bring a chance
of showers, especially by afternoon west through north of
Louisville. Highs will reach the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The most immediate TAF concern is at LEX this afternoon as low
clouds continue to remain over the TAF site.  They will likely
bounce between SCT and BKN this afternoon just under 2 kft.  These
low clouds look mostly diurnally driven so do expect them to burn
off around or after sunset with conditions returning to VFR at LEX.
All TAF sites stand a chance at MVFR fog tomorrow morning around
sunrise.  Crossover temps and NAM soundings look favorable, however,
believe the light NE wind overnight will allow slight dry air
advection which should limit fog intensity.  Thus, will continue
MVFR vsbys and monitor environmental conditions closely this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......AMS







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