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000
FXUS63 KLMK 010703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AN EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WHILE ALOFT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAINED QUITE DRY, CONFIRMED BY THE ILN 01.00Z
SOUNDING PWAT OF 1.06 INCHES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY, PLAN ON SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST. READINGS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES, A DEGREE OR TWO WITHIN THE HIGHS OBSERVED
FRIDAY. MID AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60, MAKING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND RATHER PLEASANT SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

PLAN ON MORE BENIGN WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A COUPLE
OF DRY, EFFICIENT MIXING DAYS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. ANY INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNDAY
EVENING. PLAN ON ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WEST/TROF EAST PATTERN, RESULTING IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DRY SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
OVERHEAD RECENTLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.

THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE MOST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND HAS DONE
WELL IN RECENT VERIFICATION. GFS LESS CONSISTENT BUT SHOWING SIGNS
OF CATCHING UP TO THE ECMWF. SO, THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF CAMP.

THOUGH THE PLAINS NLLJ WILL BE WEAK AT FIRST, IT WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD EACH SUCCESSIVE NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD THAT WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF MCS REMNANTS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ALSO, A SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT WILL COME
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK WILL ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION. WEDNESDAY NOW LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT. LOTS OF TIMING CHANGES CAN OCCUR THAT FAR OUT IN THE LONG
TERM, THOUGH, SO THIS MAY CHANGE. WILL KEEP POPS AT THE HIGH END OF
CHANCE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS THE EASTERN TROF FLATTENS A BIT AND ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO
RISE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE OVER WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
PAST THE CURRENT PERIOD AS WELL, AS WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........ZT
LONG TERM.........13
AVIATION..........ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 010703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AN EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WHILE ALOFT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAINED QUITE DRY, CONFIRMED BY THE ILN 01.00Z
SOUNDING PWAT OF 1.06 INCHES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY, PLAN ON SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST. READINGS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES, A DEGREE OR TWO WITHIN THE HIGHS OBSERVED
FRIDAY. MID AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60, MAKING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND RATHER PLEASANT SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

PLAN ON MORE BENIGN WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A COUPLE
OF DRY, EFFICIENT MIXING DAYS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. ANY INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNDAY
EVENING. PLAN ON ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WEST/TROF EAST PATTERN, RESULTING IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DRY SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
OVERHEAD RECENTLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.

THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE MOST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND HAS DONE
WELL IN RECENT VERIFICATION. GFS LESS CONSISTENT BUT SHOWING SIGNS
OF CATCHING UP TO THE ECMWF. SO, THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF CAMP.

THOUGH THE PLAINS NLLJ WILL BE WEAK AT FIRST, IT WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD EACH SUCCESSIVE NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD THAT WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF MCS REMNANTS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ALSO, A SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT WILL COME
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK WILL ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION. WEDNESDAY NOW LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT. LOTS OF TIMING CHANGES CAN OCCUR THAT FAR OUT IN THE LONG
TERM, THOUGH, SO THIS MAY CHANGE. WILL KEEP POPS AT THE HIGH END OF
CHANCE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS THE EASTERN TROF FLATTENS A BIT AND ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO
RISE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE OVER WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
PAST THE CURRENT PERIOD AS WELL, AS WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........ZT
LONG TERM.........13
AVIATION..........ZT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 010439
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1239 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
PAST THE CURRENT PERIOD AS WELL, AS WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........ZT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 010439
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1239 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
PAST THE CURRENT PERIOD AS WELL, AS WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 312239
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
639 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........RJS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 312239
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
639 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........RJS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 312239
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
639 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 312239
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
639 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 311917
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JBS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 311917
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JBS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 311719
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
119 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
- KSDF 311029
WRKAVN

ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JSD
AVIATION..........JBS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 311719
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
119 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
- KSDF 311029
WRKAVN

ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JSD
AVIATION..........JBS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 311030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JDG
AVIATION..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 311030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JDG
AVIATION..........13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 310641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
241 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JDG
AVIATION..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 310641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
241 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JDG
AVIATION..........13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 310509
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE SUN
LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT INSTABILITY
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT/PAH
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT/PAH
AVIATION..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 310509
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE SUN
LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT INSTABILITY
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT/PAH
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT/PAH
AVIATION..........13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 310509
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE SUN
LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT INSTABILITY
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT/PAH
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT/PAH
AVIATION..........13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 310509
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE SUN
LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT INSTABILITY
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT/PAH
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT/PAH
AVIATION..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 302255
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE SUN
LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT INSTABILITY
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY AT KBWG.
THAT HIGH IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT
AVIATION..........RJS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 302255
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE SUN
LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT INSTABILITY
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY AT KBWG.
THAT HIGH IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT
AVIATION..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301928
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE
SUN LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT
TIME FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
IS ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO
WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT
INSTABILITY CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS TO PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REAMINS IN CONTROL.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT
AVIATION..........MEFFERT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301928
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE
SUN LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT
TIME FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
IS ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO
WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT
INSTABILITY CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS TO PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REAMINS IN CONTROL.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT
AVIATION..........MEFFERT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 301032
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

A rather benign and seasonal period is in store for the Ohio Valley
through the next couple of days.  A strong surface ridge will remain
in place, bringing mostly sunny skies and northerly winds today.
These northerly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and
a much drier airmass.  In fact, some areas may see dewpoints fall
into the upper 50s this afternoon during peak mixing, which will
feel quite nice given the high humidity values (dewpoints in the
mid/upper 70s) we`ve experienced over the past few days.  Highs
today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, skies will remain mostly clear and winds will go mostly
calm as surface ridging continues to nudge into the region.  These
conditions should support a night of pretty good radiational
cooling.  Therefore, will go on the lower end of guidance for low
temperatures which puts them in the low to mid 60s.  Some of the
typically cooler spots may even dip into the 50s tonight!

Friday will nearly be a carbon copy of today.  Mostly sunny skies
will persist with highs once again topping out in the mid and upper
80s, with the typically warm spots (the Louisville metro) pushing
towards 90.  The good news is that dewpoints will once again be very
comfortable as readings will remain in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

As stated in previous discussions, the long term will be dominated
by a western ridge and eastern trof. This will keep our temperatures
from getting out of hand, but will make precipitation forecasts
tricky in the northwest flow regime. In general, though, Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will be suppressed to our south and east, and
Pacific moisture will remain to the north. With southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sitting in between these moisture sources, a drier
rather than wetter forecast is the way to go at this time.

On Saturday a weak cool front will sweep through. Will stick with a
dry forecast due to a lack of moisture in the column, the fact that
the front will be weak and getting weaker, and no obvious upper
shortwave trof to help spark storms.

There has been no run-to-run consistency within the GFS regarding
the passage of a cold front Monday night/Tuesday. The ECMWF has been
showing a steady trend of speeding up fropa, which is also what
happened in the days leading up to the fropa last night. So, will
introduce PoPs into Monday night and keep them going into Tuesday.
This front looks to be our best shot at rain during the long term.
In addition to slightly higher moisture availability, there will be
some upper level divergence to assist in convective development.

It looks like mid/upper flow will become more active next week so
will continue chance PoPs into Wednesday.

Highs each day will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s
with afternoon heat index readings not much worse than air
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.  A cold front
has now pushed through all sites, bringing much drier low-level air
in its wake.  Therefore, expect just a few passing clouds today with
northerly winds around 10 knots.  Winds will die down tonight with
the setting sun, but the dry low-level airmass will keep things VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301032
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

A rather benign and seasonal period is in store for the Ohio Valley
through the next couple of days.  A strong surface ridge will remain
in place, bringing mostly sunny skies and northerly winds today.
These northerly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and
a much drier airmass.  In fact, some areas may see dewpoints fall
into the upper 50s this afternoon during peak mixing, which will
feel quite nice given the high humidity values (dewpoints in the
mid/upper 70s) we`ve experienced over the past few days.  Highs
today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, skies will remain mostly clear and winds will go mostly
calm as surface ridging continues to nudge into the region.  These
conditions should support a night of pretty good radiational
cooling.  Therefore, will go on the lower end of guidance for low
temperatures which puts them in the low to mid 60s.  Some of the
typically cooler spots may even dip into the 50s tonight!

Friday will nearly be a carbon copy of today.  Mostly sunny skies
will persist with highs once again topping out in the mid and upper
80s, with the typically warm spots (the Louisville metro) pushing
towards 90.  The good news is that dewpoints will once again be very
comfortable as readings will remain in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

As stated in previous discussions, the long term will be dominated
by a western ridge and eastern trof. This will keep our temperatures
from getting out of hand, but will make precipitation forecasts
tricky in the northwest flow regime. In general, though, Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will be suppressed to our south and east, and
Pacific moisture will remain to the north. With southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sitting in between these moisture sources, a drier
rather than wetter forecast is the way to go at this time.

On Saturday a weak cool front will sweep through. Will stick with a
dry forecast due to a lack of moisture in the column, the fact that
the front will be weak and getting weaker, and no obvious upper
shortwave trof to help spark storms.

There has been no run-to-run consistency within the GFS regarding
the passage of a cold front Monday night/Tuesday. The ECMWF has been
showing a steady trend of speeding up fropa, which is also what
happened in the days leading up to the fropa last night. So, will
introduce PoPs into Monday night and keep them going into Tuesday.
This front looks to be our best shot at rain during the long term.
In addition to slightly higher moisture availability, there will be
some upper level divergence to assist in convective development.

It looks like mid/upper flow will become more active next week so
will continue chance PoPs into Wednesday.

Highs each day will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s
with afternoon heat index readings not much worse than air
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.  A cold front
has now pushed through all sites, bringing much drier low-level air
in its wake.  Therefore, expect just a few passing clouds today with
northerly winds around 10 knots.  Winds will die down tonight with
the setting sun, but the dry low-level airmass will keep things VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301032
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

A rather benign and seasonal period is in store for the Ohio Valley
through the next couple of days.  A strong surface ridge will remain
in place, bringing mostly sunny skies and northerly winds today.
These northerly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and
a much drier airmass.  In fact, some areas may see dewpoints fall
into the upper 50s this afternoon during peak mixing, which will
feel quite nice given the high humidity values (dewpoints in the
mid/upper 70s) we`ve experienced over the past few days.  Highs
today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, skies will remain mostly clear and winds will go mostly
calm as surface ridging continues to nudge into the region.  These
conditions should support a night of pretty good radiational
cooling.  Therefore, will go on the lower end of guidance for low
temperatures which puts them in the low to mid 60s.  Some of the
typically cooler spots may even dip into the 50s tonight!

Friday will nearly be a carbon copy of today.  Mostly sunny skies
will persist with highs once again topping out in the mid and upper
80s, with the typically warm spots (the Louisville metro) pushing
towards 90.  The good news is that dewpoints will once again be very
comfortable as readings will remain in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

As stated in previous discussions, the long term will be dominated
by a western ridge and eastern trof. This will keep our temperatures
from getting out of hand, but will make precipitation forecasts
tricky in the northwest flow regime. In general, though, Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will be suppressed to our south and east, and
Pacific moisture will remain to the north. With southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sitting in between these moisture sources, a drier
rather than wetter forecast is the way to go at this time.

On Saturday a weak cool front will sweep through. Will stick with a
dry forecast due to a lack of moisture in the column, the fact that
the front will be weak and getting weaker, and no obvious upper
shortwave trof to help spark storms.

There has been no run-to-run consistency within the GFS regarding
the passage of a cold front Monday night/Tuesday. The ECMWF has been
showing a steady trend of speeding up fropa, which is also what
happened in the days leading up to the fropa last night. So, will
introduce PoPs into Monday night and keep them going into Tuesday.
This front looks to be our best shot at rain during the long term.
In addition to slightly higher moisture availability, there will be
some upper level divergence to assist in convective development.

It looks like mid/upper flow will become more active next week so
will continue chance PoPs into Wednesday.

Highs each day will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s
with afternoon heat index readings not much worse than air
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.  A cold front
has now pushed through all sites, bringing much drier low-level air
in its wake.  Therefore, expect just a few passing clouds today with
northerly winds around 10 knots.  Winds will die down tonight with
the setting sun, but the dry low-level airmass will keep things VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300657
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
257 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

A rather benign and seasonal period is in store for the Ohio Valley
through the next couple of days.  A strong surface ridge will remain
in place, bringing mostly sunny skies and northerly winds today.
These northerly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and
a much drier airmass.  In fact, some areas may see dewpoints fall
into the upper 50s this afternoon during peak mixing, which will
feel quite nice given the high humidity values (dewpoints in the
mid/upper 70s) we`ve experienced over the past few days.  Highs
today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, skies will remain mostly clear and winds will go mostly
calm as surface ridging continues to nudge into the region.  These
conditions should support a night of pretty good radiational
cooling.  Therefore, will go on the lower end of guidance for low
temperatures which puts them in the low to mid 60s.  Some of the
typically cooler spots may even dip into the 50s tonight!

Friday will nearly be a carbon copy of today.  Mostly sunny skies
will persist with highs once again topping out in the mid and upper
80s, with the typically warm spots (the Louisville metro) pushing
towards 90.  The good news is that dewpoints will once again be very
comfortable as readings will remain in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

As stated in previous discussions, the long term will be dominated
by a western ridge and eastern trof. This will keep our temperatures
from getting out of hand, but will make precipitation forecasts
tricky in the northwest flow regime. In general, though, Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will be suppressed to our south and east, and
Pacific moisture will remain to the north. With southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sitting in between these moisture sources, a drier
rather than wetter forecast is the way to go at this time.

On Saturday a weak cool front will sweep through. Will stick with a
dry forecast due to a lack of moisture in the column, the fact that
the front will be weak and getting weaker, and no obvious upper
shortwave trof to help spark storms.

There has been no run-to-run consistency within the GFS regarding
the passage of a cold front Monday night/Tuesday. The ECMWF has been
showing a steady trend of speeding up fropa, which is also what
happened in the days leading up to the fropa last night. So, will
introduce PoPs into Monday night and keep them going into Tuesday.
This front looks to be our best shot at rain during the long term.
In addition to slightly higher moisture availability, there will be
some upper level divergence to assist in convective development.

It looks like mid/upper flow will become more active next week so
will continue chance PoPs into Wednesday.

Highs each day will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s
with afternoon heat index readings not much worse than air
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 1250 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

Despite some potential fog this morning, this TAF period will
feature VFR conditions.  With lingering moisture around and skies
slowly beginning to clear out, there still does appear to be a
window for some fog development this morning mainly at KLEX and
KBWG.  However, drier air working in from the northwest and the
lingering cloud cover should limit the threat enough to leave
prevailing vsbys in the MVFR range.

Otherwise, today will be a very pleasant, VFR day with mainly clear
skies and northerly winds around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300657
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
257 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

A rather benign and seasonal period is in store for the Ohio Valley
through the next couple of days.  A strong surface ridge will remain
in place, bringing mostly sunny skies and northerly winds today.
These northerly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and
a much drier airmass.  In fact, some areas may see dewpoints fall
into the upper 50s this afternoon during peak mixing, which will
feel quite nice given the high humidity values (dewpoints in the
mid/upper 70s) we`ve experienced over the past few days.  Highs
today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, skies will remain mostly clear and winds will go mostly
calm as surface ridging continues to nudge into the region.  These
conditions should support a night of pretty good radiational
cooling.  Therefore, will go on the lower end of guidance for low
temperatures which puts them in the low to mid 60s.  Some of the
typically cooler spots may even dip into the 50s tonight!

Friday will nearly be a carbon copy of today.  Mostly sunny skies
will persist with highs once again topping out in the mid and upper
80s, with the typically warm spots (the Louisville metro) pushing
towards 90.  The good news is that dewpoints will once again be very
comfortable as readings will remain in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

As stated in previous discussions, the long term will be dominated
by a western ridge and eastern trof. This will keep our temperatures
from getting out of hand, but will make precipitation forecasts
tricky in the northwest flow regime. In general, though, Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will be suppressed to our south and east, and
Pacific moisture will remain to the north. With southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sitting in between these moisture sources, a drier
rather than wetter forecast is the way to go at this time.

On Saturday a weak cool front will sweep through. Will stick with a
dry forecast due to a lack of moisture in the column, the fact that
the front will be weak and getting weaker, and no obvious upper
shortwave trof to help spark storms.

There has been no run-to-run consistency within the GFS regarding
the passage of a cold front Monday night/Tuesday. The ECMWF has been
showing a steady trend of speeding up fropa, which is also what
happened in the days leading up to the fropa last night. So, will
introduce PoPs into Monday night and keep them going into Tuesday.
This front looks to be our best shot at rain during the long term.
In addition to slightly higher moisture availability, there will be
some upper level divergence to assist in convective development.

It looks like mid/upper flow will become more active next week so
will continue chance PoPs into Wednesday.

Highs each day will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s
with afternoon heat index readings not much worse than air
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 1250 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

Despite some potential fog this morning, this TAF period will
feature VFR conditions.  With lingering moisture around and skies
slowly beginning to clear out, there still does appear to be a
window for some fog development this morning mainly at KLEX and
KBWG.  However, drier air working in from the northwest and the
lingering cloud cover should limit the threat enough to leave
prevailing vsbys in the MVFR range.

Otherwise, today will be a very pleasant, VFR day with mainly clear
skies and northerly winds around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300657
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
257 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

A rather benign and seasonal period is in store for the Ohio Valley
through the next couple of days.  A strong surface ridge will remain
in place, bringing mostly sunny skies and northerly winds today.
These northerly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and
a much drier airmass.  In fact, some areas may see dewpoints fall
into the upper 50s this afternoon during peak mixing, which will
feel quite nice given the high humidity values (dewpoints in the
mid/upper 70s) we`ve experienced over the past few days.  Highs
today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, skies will remain mostly clear and winds will go mostly
calm as surface ridging continues to nudge into the region.  These
conditions should support a night of pretty good radiational
cooling.  Therefore, will go on the lower end of guidance for low
temperatures which puts them in the low to mid 60s.  Some of the
typically cooler spots may even dip into the 50s tonight!

Friday will nearly be a carbon copy of today.  Mostly sunny skies
will persist with highs once again topping out in the mid and upper
80s, with the typically warm spots (the Louisville metro) pushing
towards 90.  The good news is that dewpoints will once again be very
comfortable as readings will remain in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

As stated in previous discussions, the long term will be dominated
by a western ridge and eastern trof. This will keep our temperatures
from getting out of hand, but will make precipitation forecasts
tricky in the northwest flow regime. In general, though, Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will be suppressed to our south and east, and
Pacific moisture will remain to the north. With southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sitting in between these moisture sources, a drier
rather than wetter forecast is the way to go at this time.

On Saturday a weak cool front will sweep through. Will stick with a
dry forecast due to a lack of moisture in the column, the fact that
the front will be weak and getting weaker, and no obvious upper
shortwave trof to help spark storms.

There has been no run-to-run consistency within the GFS regarding
the passage of a cold front Monday night/Tuesday. The ECMWF has been
showing a steady trend of speeding up fropa, which is also what
happened in the days leading up to the fropa last night. So, will
introduce PoPs into Monday night and keep them going into Tuesday.
This front looks to be our best shot at rain during the long term.
In addition to slightly higher moisture availability, there will be
some upper level divergence to assist in convective development.

It looks like mid/upper flow will become more active next week so
will continue chance PoPs into Wednesday.

Highs each day will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s
with afternoon heat index readings not much worse than air
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 1250 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

Despite some potential fog this morning, this TAF period will
feature VFR conditions.  With lingering moisture around and skies
slowly beginning to clear out, there still does appear to be a
window for some fog development this morning mainly at KLEX and
KBWG.  However, drier air working in from the northwest and the
lingering cloud cover should limit the threat enough to leave
prevailing vsbys in the MVFR range.

Otherwise, today will be a very pleasant, VFR day with mainly clear
skies and northerly winds around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300657
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
257 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

A rather benign and seasonal period is in store for the Ohio Valley
through the next couple of days.  A strong surface ridge will remain
in place, bringing mostly sunny skies and northerly winds today.
These northerly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and
a much drier airmass.  In fact, some areas may see dewpoints fall
into the upper 50s this afternoon during peak mixing, which will
feel quite nice given the high humidity values (dewpoints in the
mid/upper 70s) we`ve experienced over the past few days.  Highs
today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, skies will remain mostly clear and winds will go mostly
calm as surface ridging continues to nudge into the region.  These
conditions should support a night of pretty good radiational
cooling.  Therefore, will go on the lower end of guidance for low
temperatures which puts them in the low to mid 60s.  Some of the
typically cooler spots may even dip into the 50s tonight!

Friday will nearly be a carbon copy of today.  Mostly sunny skies
will persist with highs once again topping out in the mid and upper
80s, with the typically warm spots (the Louisville metro) pushing
towards 90.  The good news is that dewpoints will once again be very
comfortable as readings will remain in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

As stated in previous discussions, the long term will be dominated
by a western ridge and eastern trof. This will keep our temperatures
from getting out of hand, but will make precipitation forecasts
tricky in the northwest flow regime. In general, though, Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will be suppressed to our south and east, and
Pacific moisture will remain to the north. With southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sitting in between these moisture sources, a drier
rather than wetter forecast is the way to go at this time.

On Saturday a weak cool front will sweep through. Will stick with a
dry forecast due to a lack of moisture in the column, the fact that
the front will be weak and getting weaker, and no obvious upper
shortwave trof to help spark storms.

There has been no run-to-run consistency within the GFS regarding
the passage of a cold front Monday night/Tuesday. The ECMWF has been
showing a steady trend of speeding up fropa, which is also what
happened in the days leading up to the fropa last night. So, will
introduce PoPs into Monday night and keep them going into Tuesday.
This front looks to be our best shot at rain during the long term.
In addition to slightly higher moisture availability, there will be
some upper level divergence to assist in convective development.

It looks like mid/upper flow will become more active next week so
will continue chance PoPs into Wednesday.

Highs each day will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s
with afternoon heat index readings not much worse than air
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 1250 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

Despite some potential fog this morning, this TAF period will
feature VFR conditions.  With lingering moisture around and skies
slowly beginning to clear out, there still does appear to be a
window for some fog development this morning mainly at KLEX and
KBWG.  However, drier air working in from the northwest and the
lingering cloud cover should limit the threat enough to leave
prevailing vsbys in the MVFR range.

Otherwise, today will be a very pleasant, VFR day with mainly clear
skies and northerly winds around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300452
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1252 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Most of the line through the area now. Issued a quick update to add
some fog wording in in the wake of those storms. Otherwise just
matched obs to current readings. On another note, issued an earlier
update to remove the rest of the counties from the Heat Advisory.

Issued at 710 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Got rid of the northern part of the heat advisory for now, and
should see the southern part come down with loss of heating at the 8
PM EDT. Storms are still in a line but weaker now than when they
went through and north of the Louisville metro. Still have to watch
for flash flood potential, but the line is moving into an area that
had plenty of rain earlier, so we should see some weakening soon.
The southern half of the CWA still has some energy from today`s
heat, so they still should get some scattered storms the rest of
this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening...

Decided to issue a Heat Advisory for much of the area through 8pm
due to moisture/heat pooling ahead of an approaching cold front.
This spike in moisture/heat is occurring right at peak heating which
has caused heat index values to increase into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  A line of storms should move into the heat advisory area
between 22-2Z providing relief from the heat.

Previous Discussion:

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 1250 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

Despite some potential MVFR fog this morning, this TAF period
will feature VFR conditions. With lingering moisture around and
skies slowly beginning to clear out, there still does appear to be
a window for some fog development this morning mainly at KLEX and
KBWG. However, drier air working in from the northwest and the
lingering cloud cover should limit the threat enough to leave
prevailing vsbys in the MVFR range.

Otherwise, today will be a very pleasant, VFR day with mainly clear
skies and northerly winds around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300452
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1252 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Most of the line through the area now. Issued a quick update to add
some fog wording in in the wake of those storms. Otherwise just
matched obs to current readings. On another note, issued an earlier
update to remove the rest of the counties from the Heat Advisory.

Issued at 710 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Got rid of the northern part of the heat advisory for now, and
should see the southern part come down with loss of heating at the 8
PM EDT. Storms are still in a line but weaker now than when they
went through and north of the Louisville metro. Still have to watch
for flash flood potential, but the line is moving into an area that
had plenty of rain earlier, so we should see some weakening soon.
The southern half of the CWA still has some energy from today`s
heat, so they still should get some scattered storms the rest of
this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening...

Decided to issue a Heat Advisory for much of the area through 8pm
due to moisture/heat pooling ahead of an approaching cold front.
This spike in moisture/heat is occurring right at peak heating which
has caused heat index values to increase into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  A line of storms should move into the heat advisory area
between 22-2Z providing relief from the heat.

Previous Discussion:

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 1250 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

Despite some potential MVFR fog this morning, this TAF period
will feature VFR conditions. With lingering moisture around and
skies slowly beginning to clear out, there still does appear to be
a window for some fog development this morning mainly at KLEX and
KBWG. However, drier air working in from the northwest and the
lingering cloud cover should limit the threat enough to leave
prevailing vsbys in the MVFR range.

Otherwise, today will be a very pleasant, VFR day with mainly clear
skies and northerly winds around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300140
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
940 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Most of the line through the area now. Issued a quick update to add
some fog wording in in the wake of those storms. Otherwise just
matched obs to current readings. On another note, issued an earlier
update to remove the rest of the counties from the Heat Advisory.

Issued at 710 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Got rid of the northern part of the heat advisory for now, and
should see the southern part come down with loss of heating at the 8
PM EDT. Storms are still in a line but weaker now than when they
went through and north of the Louisville metro. Still have to watch
for flash flood potential, but the line is moving into an area that
had plenty of rain earlier, so we should see some weakening soon.
The southern half of the CWA still has some energy from today`s
heat, so they still should get some scattered storms the rest of
this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening...

Decided to issue a Heat Advisory for much of the area through 8pm
due to moisture/heat pooling ahead of an approaching cold front.
This spike in moisture/heat is occurring right at peak heating which
has caused heat index values to increase into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  A line of storms should move into the heat advisory area
between 22-2Z providing relief from the heat.

Previous Discussion:

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 645 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Finally got an organized line of storms to take advantage of all of
the heat across the region.  That line has past KSDF, but cannot
rule out a cell popping up in the vicinity over the next couple of
hours. Whether that storm survives to KLEX given earlier storms
stabilizing the atmosphere is a little in question, but they could
see a wind gust around 2330Z, just before the new TAF valid period.

After these storms, we likely will see some vsby reductions
overnight until a cold front starts to dry us out on Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300140
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
940 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Most of the line through the area now. Issued a quick update to add
some fog wording in in the wake of those storms. Otherwise just
matched obs to current readings. On another note, issued an earlier
update to remove the rest of the counties from the Heat Advisory.

Issued at 710 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Got rid of the northern part of the heat advisory for now, and
should see the southern part come down with loss of heating at the 8
PM EDT. Storms are still in a line but weaker now than when they
went through and north of the Louisville metro. Still have to watch
for flash flood potential, but the line is moving into an area that
had plenty of rain earlier, so we should see some weakening soon.
The southern half of the CWA still has some energy from today`s
heat, so they still should get some scattered storms the rest of
this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening...

Decided to issue a Heat Advisory for much of the area through 8pm
due to moisture/heat pooling ahead of an approaching cold front.
This spike in moisture/heat is occurring right at peak heating which
has caused heat index values to increase into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  A line of storms should move into the heat advisory area
between 22-2Z providing relief from the heat.

Previous Discussion:

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 645 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Finally got an organized line of storms to take advantage of all of
the heat across the region.  That line has past KSDF, but cannot
rule out a cell popping up in the vicinity over the next couple of
hours. Whether that storm survives to KLEX given earlier storms
stabilizing the atmosphere is a little in question, but they could
see a wind gust around 2330Z, just before the new TAF valid period.

After these storms, we likely will see some vsby reductions
overnight until a cold front starts to dry us out on Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292312
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
712 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Got rid of the northern part of the heat advisory for now, and
should see the southern part come down with loss of heating at the 8
PM EDT. Storms are still in a line but weaker now than when they
went through and north of the Louisville metro. Still have to watch
for flash flood potential, but the line is moving into an area that
had plenty of rain earlier, so we should see some weakening soon.
The southern half of the CWA still has some energy from today`s
heat, so they still should get some scattered storms the rest of
this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening...

Decided to issue a Heat Advisory for much of the area through 8pm
due to moisture/heat pooling ahead of an approaching cold front.
This spike in moisture/heat is occurring right at peak heating which
has caused heat index values to increase into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  A line of storms should move into the heat advisory area
between 22-2Z providing relief from the heat.

Previous Discussion:

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 645 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Finally got an organized line of storms to take advantage of all of
the heat across the region.  That line has past KSDF, but cannot
rule out a cell popping up in the vicinity over the next couple of
hours. Whether that storm survives to KLEX given earlier storms
stabilizing the atmosphere is a little in question, but they could
see a wind gust around 2330Z, just before the new TAF valid period.

After these storms, we likely will see some vsby reductions
overnight until a cold front starts to dry us out on Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ023>029-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292248
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening...

Decided to issue a Heat Advisory for much of the area through 8pm
due to moisture/heat pooling ahead of an approaching cold front.
This spike in moisture/heat is occurring right at peak heating which
has caused heat index values to increase into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  A line of storms should move into the heat advisory area
between 22-2Z providing relief from the heat.

Previous Discussion:

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 645 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Finally got an organized line of storms to take advantage of all of
the heat across the region.  That line has past KSDF, but cannot
rule out a cell popping up in the vicinity over the next couple of
hours. Whether that storm survives to KLEX given earlier storms
stabilizing the atmosphere is a little in question, but they could
see a wind gust around 2330Z, just before the new TAF valid period.

After these storms, we likely will see some vsby reductions
overnight until a cold front starts to dry us out on Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ023>034-038-039-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>078-081-082.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292248
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening...

Decided to issue a Heat Advisory for much of the area through 8pm
due to moisture/heat pooling ahead of an approaching cold front.
This spike in moisture/heat is occurring right at peak heating which
has caused heat index values to increase into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  A line of storms should move into the heat advisory area
between 22-2Z providing relief from the heat.

Previous Discussion:

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 645 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Finally got an organized line of storms to take advantage of all of
the heat across the region.  That line has past KSDF, but cannot
rule out a cell popping up in the vicinity over the next couple of
hours. Whether that storm survives to KLEX given earlier storms
stabilizing the atmosphere is a little in question, but they could
see a wind gust around 2330Z, just before the new TAF valid period.

After these storms, we likely will see some vsby reductions
overnight until a cold front starts to dry us out on Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ023>034-038-039-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>078-081-082.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292248
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening...

Decided to issue a Heat Advisory for much of the area through 8pm
due to moisture/heat pooling ahead of an approaching cold front.
This spike in moisture/heat is occurring right at peak heating which
has caused heat index values to increase into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  A line of storms should move into the heat advisory area
between 22-2Z providing relief from the heat.

Previous Discussion:

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 645 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Finally got an organized line of storms to take advantage of all of
the heat across the region.  That line has past KSDF, but cannot
rule out a cell popping up in the vicinity over the next couple of
hours. Whether that storm survives to KLEX given earlier storms
stabilizing the atmosphere is a little in question, but they could
see a wind gust around 2330Z, just before the new TAF valid period.

After these storms, we likely will see some vsby reductions
overnight until a cold front starts to dry us out on Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ023>034-038-039-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>078-081-082.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292248
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening...

Decided to issue a Heat Advisory for much of the area through 8pm
due to moisture/heat pooling ahead of an approaching cold front.
This spike in moisture/heat is occurring right at peak heating which
has caused heat index values to increase into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  A line of storms should move into the heat advisory area
between 22-2Z providing relief from the heat.

Previous Discussion:

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 645 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Finally got an organized line of storms to take advantage of all of
the heat across the region.  That line has past KSDF, but cannot
rule out a cell popping up in the vicinity over the next couple of
hours. Whether that storm survives to KLEX given earlier storms
stabilizing the atmosphere is a little in question, but they could
see a wind gust around 2330Z, just before the new TAF valid period.

After these storms, we likely will see some vsby reductions
overnight until a cold front starts to dry us out on Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ023>034-038-039-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>078-081-082.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291948
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening...

Decided to issue a Heat Advisory for much of the area through 8pm
due to moisture/heat pooling ahead of an approaching cold front.
This spike in moisture/heat is occurring right at peak heating which
has caused heat index values to increase into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  A line of storms should move into the heat advisory area
between 22-2Z providing relief from the heat.

Previous Discussion:

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A weak cold front and several weak sfc boundaries left over from
convection this morning and last night will providing forcing/focus
for convection this afternoon/evening.  Therefore will continue VCTS
at all TAF sites.  The fropa will occur this evening between 2-6Z
shifting winds to the NW and ending convection.  Low level moisture
will likely stick around through the early morning hours before
drier air arrives.  Expect some periods of MVFR restriction at all
TAF sites through around 11-14Z.  Conditions will return to VFR by
mid morning with clearing skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ023>034-038-039-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>078-081-082.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291948
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening...

Decided to issue a Heat Advisory for much of the area through 8pm
due to moisture/heat pooling ahead of an approaching cold front.
This spike in moisture/heat is occurring right at peak heating which
has caused heat index values to increase into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  A line of storms should move into the heat advisory area
between 22-2Z providing relief from the heat.

Previous Discussion:

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A weak cold front and several weak sfc boundaries left over from
convection this morning and last night will providing forcing/focus
for convection this afternoon/evening.  Therefore will continue VCTS
at all TAF sites.  The fropa will occur this evening between 2-6Z
shifting winds to the NW and ending convection.  Low level moisture
will likely stick around through the early morning hours before
drier air arrives.  Expect some periods of MVFR restriction at all
TAF sites through around 11-14Z.  Conditions will return to VFR by
mid morning with clearing skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ023>034-038-039-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>078-081-082.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291948
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening...

Decided to issue a Heat Advisory for much of the area through 8pm
due to moisture/heat pooling ahead of an approaching cold front.
This spike in moisture/heat is occurring right at peak heating which
has caused heat index values to increase into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  A line of storms should move into the heat advisory area
between 22-2Z providing relief from the heat.

Previous Discussion:

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A weak cold front and several weak sfc boundaries left over from
convection this morning and last night will providing forcing/focus
for convection this afternoon/evening.  Therefore will continue VCTS
at all TAF sites.  The fropa will occur this evening between 2-6Z
shifting winds to the NW and ending convection.  Low level moisture
will likely stick around through the early morning hours before
drier air arrives.  Expect some periods of MVFR restriction at all
TAF sites through around 11-14Z.  Conditions will return to VFR by
mid morning with clearing skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ023>034-038-039-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>078-081-082.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291948
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening...

Decided to issue a Heat Advisory for much of the area through 8pm
due to moisture/heat pooling ahead of an approaching cold front.
This spike in moisture/heat is occurring right at peak heating which
has caused heat index values to increase into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  A line of storms should move into the heat advisory area
between 22-2Z providing relief from the heat.

Previous Discussion:

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A weak cold front and several weak sfc boundaries left over from
convection this morning and last night will providing forcing/focus
for convection this afternoon/evening.  Therefore will continue VCTS
at all TAF sites.  The fropa will occur this evening between 2-6Z
shifting winds to the NW and ending convection.  Low level moisture
will likely stick around through the early morning hours before
drier air arrives.  Expect some periods of MVFR restriction at all
TAF sites through around 11-14Z.  Conditions will return to VFR by
mid morning with clearing skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ023>034-038-039-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>078-081-082.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291916
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A weak cold front and several weak sfc boundaries left over from
convection this morning and last night will providing forcing/focus
for convection this afternoon/evening.  Therefore will continue VCTS
at all TAF sites.  The fropa will occur this evening between 2-6Z
shifting winds to the NW and ending convection.  Low level moisture
will likely stick around through the early morning hours before
drier air arrives.  Expect some periods of MVFR restriction at all
TAF sites through around 11-14Z.  Conditions will return to VFR by
mid morning with clearing skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291916
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Currently storms have fired along a left over boundary in the
Bluegrass region.  These storms have very slow storm motions and a
tendency to train and back build so these may cause some flooding
issues.  Storms were also developing along the cold front to our
northwest over IL/IN.  These storms will persist and move SE
through our region late this afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalysis
indicates plenty of CAPE/DCAPE/high precipitable water amounts in
the area which will be favorable for an isld damaging wind threat
and localized flooding threat.  Some small hail is possible but
unlikely given a mid level cap in place which may limit storm
heights, very warm boundary layer temps, and a generally weak wind
profile.  Storms should diminish or move south of much of the area
just after midnight.  All areas should be dry on the back side of
the front by sunrise.  Low temps tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Lower dewpts will bring much more pleasant humidity values to region
starting Thurs.  Expect clearing skies for Thurs morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Thurs night low temps should range through the 60s with some patchy
fog possible.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Flow regime at the beginning of the period will be characterized as
northwesterly flow aloft as ridging persists out across the western
CONUS and a corresponding trough hangs out along the eastern CONUS.
The flow is expected to amplify a bit over the weekend with both the
western ridge and eastern trough becoming larger, thus our flow will
be maintained out of the northwest.  The latest data suggests
another weak frontal boundary will shift southward through the area
early in the weekend and then a series of surface high pressure
systems will progress across the region yielding sunny skies along
with less humid conditions.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be generally below average with low
to mid 80s being seen across much of the region. A few upper 80s
over the southern and southwest sections seems likely.  We generally
stuck to the bias-corrected consensus all model blend here which has
had a good verification record over the past several days.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 60s through the period yielding
significant relief from the muggy conditions of late.  There may be
a very isolated chance of a shower or storm on Saturday with the
front pushing through.  However, convergence is not overall
impressive along the front, thus plan on keeping things dry at this
point.

The relative quiet weather pattern from the weekend will likely come
to an end early next week as the northwest flow pattern is forecast
to become more active.  The latest model data suggests that several
waves will drop down into the region within the northwest flow early
next week.  At the same time, the overall amplitude of the western
ridge is forecast to decrease and become more flat.  Thus, it
appears that the northwest flow pattern will become more progressive
as geopotential heights attempt to rise across southern Plains and
into the western portion of the southeastern US.  In this type of
set up, it appears that an enhanced area of unsettled weather will
develop from the northern Plains through the Midwest and into
portions of the Ohio Valley.  Overall, this pattern is not much
different than what we`ve seen of late, though the multi-model
consensus suggests that the main axis of convection and associated
rainfall may develop just north of our region.

Temporal timing of the waves in this pattern setup remain
problematic.  Thus, it will be a few more days before things can be
really pinned down to a certain time frame.  For now, plan on
keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
Precipitation and expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
down below seasonal normals.  Therefore, have gone with the cooler
side of the guidance envelope with temperatures.  Highs will likely
top out in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s in the
south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A weak cold front and several weak sfc boundaries left over from
convection this morning and last night will providing forcing/focus
for convection this afternoon/evening.  Therefore will continue VCTS
at all TAF sites.  The fropa will occur this evening between 2-6Z
shifting winds to the NW and ending convection.  Low level moisture
will likely stick around through the early morning hours before
drier air arrives.  Expect some periods of MVFR restriction at all
TAF sites through around 11-14Z.  Conditions will return to VFR by
mid morning with clearing skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS








000
FXUS63 KLMK 291738
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
138 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs and hourly temps/dewpts.  We`re
currently in a lull in precip activity, but we should see
showers/storms redevelop by this afternoon and continue into the
evening hours.  Localized heavy rainfall/flooding and isld damaging
winds still look like the main threats.  Made minor adjustments to
high temps today with highs expected in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Juicy and boundary-rich air mass remains in place over the Ohio
Valley, but some fairly substantial changes are on the way as a cold
front pushes ESE from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Showers and
storms over northern Illinois and now over northern Missouri have
not gotten organized into any southeastward-diving MCS, so not too
excited about our precip chances too early in the day. However,
can`t rule out a renegade shower or T-storm in this environment, so
will see slight chance POPs area-wide before noon.

Later in the day our precip chances really start to ramp up with the
approach of the cold front. Believe that storms will still struggle
to organize, but plenty of instability and just enough forcing to
support marginally severe wind gusts and torrential rainfall out of
the strongest storms this afternoon and evening.

Heat will likely be a bigger story today, with temps climbing into
the lower 90s, and dewpoints solidly in the mid-70s as moisture
pools over southern Indiana and generally west of I-65 in Kentucky.
Heat index values in this area will reach 100-103F, so will cover
this in a Special Weather Statement.

The cold front and its associated convection should push south and
east of the area overnight, but could hang up just enough to give us
an isolated T-storm across south central Kentucky Thursday morning.
Mainly expect relief from the soupy air mass as lower dewpoints
filter in from the north.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A generally benign long term period looks to be in store for the
Ohio Valley as surface ridging takes control for the end of the week
into the first part of the upcoming weekend.  A couple of weak
systems may attempt to make a run at the region late this weekend
into the upcoming week, but high model spread leads to some
uncertainty in that part of the forecast.

High pressure will build into the region Thursday night into Friday
night, allowing slightly cooler but seasonably dry air to infiltrate
the Ohio Valley.  Highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 80s,
but dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will make those readings feel
much more pleasant than they have of late.  With generally light
winds and clear/partly cloudy skies expected both nights, overnight
lows should be able to dip into the mid and upper 60s.

A weak front will approach from the north on Saturday.  Moisture
return ahead of this front will be rather unimpressive, with very
little in the way of upper-level support as the main PV anomaly
diving through the NW flow aloft will pass well to the north of the
region.  Therefore, will continue with a dry forecast, but can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower or storm within the weak
frontal convergence Saturday afternoon into Saturday night,
especially in the northern Bluegrass region of KY.

There are signals that the NW flow regime will become a bit more
active as we head into early next week.  However, there seems to be
rather poor consistency both spatially and temporally with these
potential systems.  The 29/00Z GFS is advertising a weak front
pushing through on Monday with some associated convection, but the
GEFS/GEM/ECMWF are not on board so will leave Monday dry for now.
Will go ahead and bring in pops Tuesday as yet another front
attempts to make southern progress into the Ohio Valley.  Several
waves may ride along this front which may keep precipitation in the
forecast through the middle/end of next week, outside the scope of
this official forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A weak cold front and several weak sfc boundaries left over from
convection this morning and last night will providing forcing/focus
for convection this afternoon/evening.  Therefore will continue VCTS
at all TAF sites.  The fropa will occur this evening between 2-6Z
shifting winds to the NW and ending convection.  Low level moisture
will likely stick around through the early morning hours before
drier air arrives.  Expect some periods of MVFR restriction at all
TAF sites through around 11-14Z.  Conditions will return to VFR by
mid morning with clearing skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291738
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
138 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs and hourly temps/dewpts.  We`re
currently in a lull in precip activity, but we should see
showers/storms redevelop by this afternoon and continue into the
evening hours.  Localized heavy rainfall/flooding and isld damaging
winds still look like the main threats.  Made minor adjustments to
high temps today with highs expected in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Juicy and boundary-rich air mass remains in place over the Ohio
Valley, but some fairly substantial changes are on the way as a cold
front pushes ESE from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Showers and
storms over northern Illinois and now over northern Missouri have
not gotten organized into any southeastward-diving MCS, so not too
excited about our precip chances too early in the day. However,
can`t rule out a renegade shower or T-storm in this environment, so
will see slight chance POPs area-wide before noon.

Later in the day our precip chances really start to ramp up with the
approach of the cold front. Believe that storms will still struggle
to organize, but plenty of instability and just enough forcing to
support marginally severe wind gusts and torrential rainfall out of
the strongest storms this afternoon and evening.

Heat will likely be a bigger story today, with temps climbing into
the lower 90s, and dewpoints solidly in the mid-70s as moisture
pools over southern Indiana and generally west of I-65 in Kentucky.
Heat index values in this area will reach 100-103F, so will cover
this in a Special Weather Statement.

The cold front and its associated convection should push south and
east of the area overnight, but could hang up just enough to give us
an isolated T-storm across south central Kentucky Thursday morning.
Mainly expect relief from the soupy air mass as lower dewpoints
filter in from the north.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A generally benign long term period looks to be in store for the
Ohio Valley as surface ridging takes control for the end of the week
into the first part of the upcoming weekend.  A couple of weak
systems may attempt to make a run at the region late this weekend
into the upcoming week, but high model spread leads to some
uncertainty in that part of the forecast.

High pressure will build into the region Thursday night into Friday
night, allowing slightly cooler but seasonably dry air to infiltrate
the Ohio Valley.  Highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 80s,
but dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will make those readings feel
much more pleasant than they have of late.  With generally light
winds and clear/partly cloudy skies expected both nights, overnight
lows should be able to dip into the mid and upper 60s.

A weak front will approach from the north on Saturday.  Moisture
return ahead of this front will be rather unimpressive, with very
little in the way of upper-level support as the main PV anomaly
diving through the NW flow aloft will pass well to the north of the
region.  Therefore, will continue with a dry forecast, but can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower or storm within the weak
frontal convergence Saturday afternoon into Saturday night,
especially in the northern Bluegrass region of KY.

There are signals that the NW flow regime will become a bit more
active as we head into early next week.  However, there seems to be
rather poor consistency both spatially and temporally with these
potential systems.  The 29/00Z GFS is advertising a weak front
pushing through on Monday with some associated convection, but the
GEFS/GEM/ECMWF are not on board so will leave Monday dry for now.
Will go ahead and bring in pops Tuesday as yet another front
attempts to make southern progress into the Ohio Valley.  Several
waves may ride along this front which may keep precipitation in the
forecast through the middle/end of next week, outside the scope of
this official forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A weak cold front and several weak sfc boundaries left over from
convection this morning and last night will providing forcing/focus
for convection this afternoon/evening.  Therefore will continue VCTS
at all TAF sites.  The fropa will occur this evening between 2-6Z
shifting winds to the NW and ending convection.  Low level moisture
will likely stick around through the early morning hours before
drier air arrives.  Expect some periods of MVFR restriction at all
TAF sites through around 11-14Z.  Conditions will return to VFR by
mid morning with clearing skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291403
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1003 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs and hourly temps/dewpts.  We`re
currently in a lull in precip activity, but we should see
showers/storms redevelop by this afternoon and continue into the
evening hours.  Localized heavy rainfall/flooding and isld damaging
winds still look like the main threats.  Made minor adjustments to
high temps today with highs expected in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Juicy and boundary-rich air mass remains in place over the Ohio
Valley, but some fairly substantial changes are on the way as a cold
front pushes ESE from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Showers and
storms over northern Illinois and now over northern Missouri have
not gotten organized into any southeastward-diving MCS, so not too
excited about our precip chances too early in the day. However,
can`t rule out a renegade shower or T-storm in this environment, so
will see slight chance POPs area-wide before noon.

Later in the day our precip chances really start to ramp up with the
approach of the cold front. Believe that storms will still struggle
to organize, but plenty of instability and just enough forcing to
support marginally severe wind gusts and torrential rainfall out of
the strongest storms this afternoon and evening.

Heat will likely be a bigger story today, with temps climbing into
the lower 90s, and dewpoints solidly in the mid-70s as moisture
pools over southern Indiana and generally west of I-65 in Kentucky.
Heat index values in this area will reach 100-103F, so will cover
this in a Special Weather Statement.

The cold front and its associated convection should push south and
east of the area overnight, but could hang up just enough to give us
an isolated T-storm across south central Kentucky Thursday morning.
Mainly expect relief from the soupy air mass as lower dewpoints
filter in from the north.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A generally benign long term period looks to be in store for the
Ohio Valley as surface ridging takes control for the end of the week
into the first part of the upcoming weekend.  A couple of weak
systems may attempt to make a run at the region late this weekend
into the upcoming week, but high model spread leads to some
uncertainty in that part of the forecast.

High pressure will build into the region Thursday night into Friday
night, allowing slightly cooler but seasonably dry air to infiltrate
the Ohio Valley.  Highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 80s,
but dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will make those readings feel
much more pleasant than they have of late.  With generally light
winds and clear/partly cloudy skies expected both nights, overnight
lows should be able to dip into the mid and upper 60s.

A weak front will approach from the north on Saturday.  Moisture
return ahead of this front will be rather unimpressive, with very
little in the way of upper-level support as the main PV anomaly
diving through the NW flow aloft will pass well to the north of the
region.  Therefore, will continue with a dry forecast, but can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower or storm within the weak
frontal convergence Saturday afternoon into Saturday night,
especially in the northern Bluegrass region of KY.

There are signals that the NW flow regime will become a bit more
active as we head into early next week.  However, there seems to be
rather poor consistency both spatially and temporally with these
potential systems.  The 29/00Z GFS is advertising a weak front
pushing through on Monday with some associated convection, but the
GEFS/GEM/ECMWF are not on board so will leave Monday dry for now.
Will go ahead and bring in pops Tuesday as yet another front
attempts to make southern progress into the Ohio Valley.  Several
waves may ride along this front which may keep precipitation in the
forecast through the middle/end of next week, outside the scope of
this official forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2015

One more steamy morning, with the fog limited by a short night and
debris clouds from yesterday`s convection. Visibilities currently
running MVFR, but the sun is coming up and temp/dewpoint spreads are
already widening. Will initialize MVFR vis for the first couple of
hours.

Diurnal cu field should get going by mid/late morning, but should
remain scattered through the day. Cold front will get close enough
by 20-21Z to warrant VCTS/CB mention, but any direct impact remains
too uncertain for a TEMPO. Could see brief IFR when T-storms are
directly on any of the airports, but duration is both short and
uncertain.

Front and associated convection should be southeast of BWG and LEX
by 02-03Z, but will hang up close enough to allow some moisture
pooling to continue through the night. MVFR visibility appears to be
a good bet for much of the overnight period, but any IFR restriction
will depend on how much rain falls this afternoon.

Confidence is low with the convection, but moderate to high with fog
potential both mornings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291403
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1003 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs and hourly temps/dewpts.  We`re
currently in a lull in precip activity, but we should see
showers/storms redevelop by this afternoon and continue into the
evening hours.  Localized heavy rainfall/flooding and isld damaging
winds still look like the main threats.  Made minor adjustments to
high temps today with highs expected in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Juicy and boundary-rich air mass remains in place over the Ohio
Valley, but some fairly substantial changes are on the way as a cold
front pushes ESE from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Showers and
storms over northern Illinois and now over northern Missouri have
not gotten organized into any southeastward-diving MCS, so not too
excited about our precip chances too early in the day. However,
can`t rule out a renegade shower or T-storm in this environment, so
will see slight chance POPs area-wide before noon.

Later in the day our precip chances really start to ramp up with the
approach of the cold front. Believe that storms will still struggle
to organize, but plenty of instability and just enough forcing to
support marginally severe wind gusts and torrential rainfall out of
the strongest storms this afternoon and evening.

Heat will likely be a bigger story today, with temps climbing into
the lower 90s, and dewpoints solidly in the mid-70s as moisture
pools over southern Indiana and generally west of I-65 in Kentucky.
Heat index values in this area will reach 100-103F, so will cover
this in a Special Weather Statement.

The cold front and its associated convection should push south and
east of the area overnight, but could hang up just enough to give us
an isolated T-storm across south central Kentucky Thursday morning.
Mainly expect relief from the soupy air mass as lower dewpoints
filter in from the north.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A generally benign long term period looks to be in store for the
Ohio Valley as surface ridging takes control for the end of the week
into the first part of the upcoming weekend.  A couple of weak
systems may attempt to make a run at the region late this weekend
into the upcoming week, but high model spread leads to some
uncertainty in that part of the forecast.

High pressure will build into the region Thursday night into Friday
night, allowing slightly cooler but seasonably dry air to infiltrate
the Ohio Valley.  Highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 80s,
but dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will make those readings feel
much more pleasant than they have of late.  With generally light
winds and clear/partly cloudy skies expected both nights, overnight
lows should be able to dip into the mid and upper 60s.

A weak front will approach from the north on Saturday.  Moisture
return ahead of this front will be rather unimpressive, with very
little in the way of upper-level support as the main PV anomaly
diving through the NW flow aloft will pass well to the north of the
region.  Therefore, will continue with a dry forecast, but can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower or storm within the weak
frontal convergence Saturday afternoon into Saturday night,
especially in the northern Bluegrass region of KY.

There are signals that the NW flow regime will become a bit more
active as we head into early next week.  However, there seems to be
rather poor consistency both spatially and temporally with these
potential systems.  The 29/00Z GFS is advertising a weak front
pushing through on Monday with some associated convection, but the
GEFS/GEM/ECMWF are not on board so will leave Monday dry for now.
Will go ahead and bring in pops Tuesday as yet another front
attempts to make southern progress into the Ohio Valley.  Several
waves may ride along this front which may keep precipitation in the
forecast through the middle/end of next week, outside the scope of
this official forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2015

One more steamy morning, with the fog limited by a short night and
debris clouds from yesterday`s convection. Visibilities currently
running MVFR, but the sun is coming up and temp/dewpoint spreads are
already widening. Will initialize MVFR vis for the first couple of
hours.

Diurnal cu field should get going by mid/late morning, but should
remain scattered through the day. Cold front will get close enough
by 20-21Z to warrant VCTS/CB mention, but any direct impact remains
too uncertain for a TEMPO. Could see brief IFR when T-storms are
directly on any of the airports, but duration is both short and
uncertain.

Front and associated convection should be southeast of BWG and LEX
by 02-03Z, but will hang up close enough to allow some moisture
pooling to continue through the night. MVFR visibility appears to be
a good bet for much of the overnight period, but any IFR restriction
will depend on how much rain falls this afternoon.

Confidence is low with the convection, but moderate to high with fog
potential both mornings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291403
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1003 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs and hourly temps/dewpts.  We`re
currently in a lull in precip activity, but we should see
showers/storms redevelop by this afternoon and continue into the
evening hours.  Localized heavy rainfall/flooding and isld damaging
winds still look like the main threats.  Made minor adjustments to
high temps today with highs expected in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Juicy and boundary-rich air mass remains in place over the Ohio
Valley, but some fairly substantial changes are on the way as a cold
front pushes ESE from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Showers and
storms over northern Illinois and now over northern Missouri have
not gotten organized into any southeastward-diving MCS, so not too
excited about our precip chances too early in the day. However,
can`t rule out a renegade shower or T-storm in this environment, so
will see slight chance POPs area-wide before noon.

Later in the day our precip chances really start to ramp up with the
approach of the cold front. Believe that storms will still struggle
to organize, but plenty of instability and just enough forcing to
support marginally severe wind gusts and torrential rainfall out of
the strongest storms this afternoon and evening.

Heat will likely be a bigger story today, with temps climbing into
the lower 90s, and dewpoints solidly in the mid-70s as moisture
pools over southern Indiana and generally west of I-65 in Kentucky.
Heat index values in this area will reach 100-103F, so will cover
this in a Special Weather Statement.

The cold front and its associated convection should push south and
east of the area overnight, but could hang up just enough to give us
an isolated T-storm across south central Kentucky Thursday morning.
Mainly expect relief from the soupy air mass as lower dewpoints
filter in from the north.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A generally benign long term period looks to be in store for the
Ohio Valley as surface ridging takes control for the end of the week
into the first part of the upcoming weekend.  A couple of weak
systems may attempt to make a run at the region late this weekend
into the upcoming week, but high model spread leads to some
uncertainty in that part of the forecast.

High pressure will build into the region Thursday night into Friday
night, allowing slightly cooler but seasonably dry air to infiltrate
the Ohio Valley.  Highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 80s,
but dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will make those readings feel
much more pleasant than they have of late.  With generally light
winds and clear/partly cloudy skies expected both nights, overnight
lows should be able to dip into the mid and upper 60s.

A weak front will approach from the north on Saturday.  Moisture
return ahead of this front will be rather unimpressive, with very
little in the way of upper-level support as the main PV anomaly
diving through the NW flow aloft will pass well to the north of the
region.  Therefore, will continue with a dry forecast, but can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower or storm within the weak
frontal convergence Saturday afternoon into Saturday night,
especially in the northern Bluegrass region of KY.

There are signals that the NW flow regime will become a bit more
active as we head into early next week.  However, there seems to be
rather poor consistency both spatially and temporally with these
potential systems.  The 29/00Z GFS is advertising a weak front
pushing through on Monday with some associated convection, but the
GEFS/GEM/ECMWF are not on board so will leave Monday dry for now.
Will go ahead and bring in pops Tuesday as yet another front
attempts to make southern progress into the Ohio Valley.  Several
waves may ride along this front which may keep precipitation in the
forecast through the middle/end of next week, outside the scope of
this official forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2015

One more steamy morning, with the fog limited by a short night and
debris clouds from yesterday`s convection. Visibilities currently
running MVFR, but the sun is coming up and temp/dewpoint spreads are
already widening. Will initialize MVFR vis for the first couple of
hours.

Diurnal cu field should get going by mid/late morning, but should
remain scattered through the day. Cold front will get close enough
by 20-21Z to warrant VCTS/CB mention, but any direct impact remains
too uncertain for a TEMPO. Could see brief IFR when T-storms are
directly on any of the airports, but duration is both short and
uncertain.

Front and associated convection should be southeast of BWG and LEX
by 02-03Z, but will hang up close enough to allow some moisture
pooling to continue through the night. MVFR visibility appears to be
a good bet for much of the overnight period, but any IFR restriction
will depend on how much rain falls this afternoon.

Confidence is low with the convection, but moderate to high with fog
potential both mornings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291403
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1003 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs and hourly temps/dewpts.  We`re
currently in a lull in precip activity, but we should see
showers/storms redevelop by this afternoon and continue into the
evening hours.  Localized heavy rainfall/flooding and isld damaging
winds still look like the main threats.  Made minor adjustments to
high temps today with highs expected in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Juicy and boundary-rich air mass remains in place over the Ohio
Valley, but some fairly substantial changes are on the way as a cold
front pushes ESE from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Showers and
storms over northern Illinois and now over northern Missouri have
not gotten organized into any southeastward-diving MCS, so not too
excited about our precip chances too early in the day. However,
can`t rule out a renegade shower or T-storm in this environment, so
will see slight chance POPs area-wide before noon.

Later in the day our precip chances really start to ramp up with the
approach of the cold front. Believe that storms will still struggle
to organize, but plenty of instability and just enough forcing to
support marginally severe wind gusts and torrential rainfall out of
the strongest storms this afternoon and evening.

Heat will likely be a bigger story today, with temps climbing into
the lower 90s, and dewpoints solidly in the mid-70s as moisture
pools over southern Indiana and generally west of I-65 in Kentucky.
Heat index values in this area will reach 100-103F, so will cover
this in a Special Weather Statement.

The cold front and its associated convection should push south and
east of the area overnight, but could hang up just enough to give us
an isolated T-storm across south central Kentucky Thursday morning.
Mainly expect relief from the soupy air mass as lower dewpoints
filter in from the north.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A generally benign long term period looks to be in store for the
Ohio Valley as surface ridging takes control for the end of the week
into the first part of the upcoming weekend.  A couple of weak
systems may attempt to make a run at the region late this weekend
into the upcoming week, but high model spread leads to some
uncertainty in that part of the forecast.

High pressure will build into the region Thursday night into Friday
night, allowing slightly cooler but seasonably dry air to infiltrate
the Ohio Valley.  Highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 80s,
but dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will make those readings feel
much more pleasant than they have of late.  With generally light
winds and clear/partly cloudy skies expected both nights, overnight
lows should be able to dip into the mid and upper 60s.

A weak front will approach from the north on Saturday.  Moisture
return ahead of this front will be rather unimpressive, with very
little in the way of upper-level support as the main PV anomaly
diving through the NW flow aloft will pass well to the north of the
region.  Therefore, will continue with a dry forecast, but can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower or storm within the weak
frontal convergence Saturday afternoon into Saturday night,
especially in the northern Bluegrass region of KY.

There are signals that the NW flow regime will become a bit more
active as we head into early next week.  However, there seems to be
rather poor consistency both spatially and temporally with these
potential systems.  The 29/00Z GFS is advertising a weak front
pushing through on Monday with some associated convection, but the
GEFS/GEM/ECMWF are not on board so will leave Monday dry for now.
Will go ahead and bring in pops Tuesday as yet another front
attempts to make southern progress into the Ohio Valley.  Several
waves may ride along this front which may keep precipitation in the
forecast through the middle/end of next week, outside the scope of
this official forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2015

One more steamy morning, with the fog limited by a short night and
debris clouds from yesterday`s convection. Visibilities currently
running MVFR, but the sun is coming up and temp/dewpoint spreads are
already widening. Will initialize MVFR vis for the first couple of
hours.

Diurnal cu field should get going by mid/late morning, but should
remain scattered through the day. Cold front will get close enough
by 20-21Z to warrant VCTS/CB mention, but any direct impact remains
too uncertain for a TEMPO. Could see brief IFR when T-storms are
directly on any of the airports, but duration is both short and
uncertain.

Front and associated convection should be southeast of BWG and LEX
by 02-03Z, but will hang up close enough to allow some moisture
pooling to continue through the night. MVFR visibility appears to be
a good bet for much of the overnight period, but any IFR restriction
will depend on how much rain falls this afternoon.

Confidence is low with the convection, but moderate to high with fog
potential both mornings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Juicy and boundary-rich air mass remains in place over the Ohio
Valley, but some fairly substantial changes are on the way as a cold
front pushes ESE from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Showers and
storms over northern Illinois and now over northern Missouri have
not gotten organized into any southeastward-diving MCS, so not too
excited about our precip chances too early in the day. However,
can`t rule out a renegade shower or T-storm in this environment, so
will see slight chance POPs area-wide before noon.

Later in the day our precip chances really start to ramp up with the
approach of the cold front. Believe that storms will still struggle
to organize, but plenty of instability and just enough forcing to
support marginally severe wind gusts and torrential rainfall out of
the strongest storms this afternoon and evening.

Heat will likely be a bigger story today, with temps climbing into
the lower 90s, and dewpoints solidly in the mid-70s as moisture
pools over southern Indiana and generally west of I-65 in Kentucky.
Heat index values in this area will reach 100-103F, so will cover
this in a Special Weather Statement.

The cold front and its associated convection should push south and
east of the area overnight, but could hang up just enough to give us
an isolated T-storm across south central Kentucky Thursday morning.
Mainly expect relief from the soupy air mass as lower dewpoints
filter in from the north.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A generally benign long term period looks to be in store for the
Ohio Valley as surface ridging takes control for the end of the week
into the first part of the upcoming weekend.  A couple of weak
systems may attempt to make a run at the region late this weekend
into the upcoming week, but high model spread leads to some
uncertainty in that part of the forecast.

High pressure will build into the region Thursday night into Friday
night, allowing slightly cooler but seasonably dry air to infiltrate
the Ohio Valley.  Highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 80s,
but dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will make those readings feel
much more pleasant than they have of late.  With generally light
winds and clear/partly cloudy skies expected both nights, overnight
lows should be able to dip into the mid and upper 60s.

A weak front will approach from the north on Saturday.  Moisture
return ahead of this front will be rather unimpressive, with very
little in the way of upper-level support as the main PV anomaly
diving through the NW flow aloft will pass well to the north of the
region.  Therefore, will continue with a dry forecast, but can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower or storm within the weak
frontal convergence Saturday afternoon into Saturday night,
especially in the northern Bluegrass region of KY.

There are signals that the NW flow regime will become a bit more
active as we head into early next week.  However, there seems to be
rather poor consistency both spatially and temporally with these
potential systems.  The 29/00Z GFS is advertising a weak front
pushing through on Monday with some associated convection, but the
GEFS/GEM/ECMWF are not on board so will leave Monday dry for now.
Will go ahead and bring in pops Tuesday as yet another front
attempts to make southern progress into the Ohio Valley.  Several
waves may ride along this front which may keep precipitation in the
forecast through the middle/end of next week, outside the scope of
this official forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2015

One more steamy morning, with the fog limited by a short night and
debris clouds from yesterday`s convection. Visibilities currently
running MVFR, but the sun is coming up and temp/dewpoint spreads are
already widening. Will initialize MVFR vis for the first couple of
hours.

Diurnal cu field should get going by mid/late morning, but should
remain scattered through the day. Cold front will get close enough
by 20-21Z to warrant VCTS/CB mention, but any direct impact remains
too uncertain for a TEMPO. Could see brief IFR when T-storms are
directly on any of the airports, but duration is both short and
uncertain.

Front and associated convection should be southeast of BWG and LEX
by 02-03Z, but will hang up close enough to allow some moisture
pooling to continue through the night. MVFR visibility appears to be
a good bet for much of the overnight period, but any IFR restriction
will depend on how much rain falls this afternoon.

Confidence is low with the convection, but moderate to high with fog
potential both mornings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

Juicy and boundary-rich air mass remains in place over the Ohio
Valley, but some fairly substantial changes are on the way as a cold
front pushes ESE from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Showers and
storms over northern Illinois and now over northern Missouri have
not gotten organized into any southeastward-diving MCS, so not too
excited about our precip chances too early in the day. However,
can`t rule out a renegade shower or T-storm in this environment, so
will see slight chance POPs area-wide before noon.

Later in the day our precip chances really start to ramp up with the
approach of the cold front. Believe that storms will still struggle
to organize, but plenty of instability and just enough forcing to
support marginally severe wind gusts and torrential rainfall out of
the strongest storms this afternoon and evening.

Heat will likely be a bigger story today, with temps climbing into
the lower 90s, and dewpoints solidly in the mid-70s as moisture
pools over southern Indiana and generally west of I-65 in Kentucky.
Heat index values in this area will reach 100-103F, so will cover
this in a Special Weather Statement.

The cold front and its associated convection should push south and
east of the area overnight, but could hang up just enough to give us
an isolated T-storm across south central Kentucky Thursday morning.
Mainly expect relief from the soupy air mass as lower dewpoints
filter in from the north.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2015

A generally benign long term period looks to be in store for the
Ohio Valley as surface ridging takes control for the end of the week
into the first part of the upcoming weekend.  A couple of weak
systems may attempt to make a run at the region late this weekend
into the upcoming week, but high model spread leads to some
uncertainty in that part of the forecast.

High pressure will build into the region Thursday night into Friday
night, allowing slightly cooler but seasonably dry air to infiltrate
the Ohio Valley.  Highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 80s,
but dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will make those readings feel
much more pleasant than they have of late.  With generally light
winds and clear/partly cloudy skies expected both nights, overnight
lows should be able to dip into the mid and upper 60s.

A weak front will approach from the north on Saturday.  Moisture
return ahead of this front will be rather unimpressive, with very
little in the way of upper-level support as the main PV anomaly
diving through the NW flow aloft will pass well to the north of the
region.  Therefore, will continue with a dry forecast, but can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower or storm within the weak
frontal convergence Saturday afternoon into Saturday night,
especially in the northern Bluegrass region of KY.

There are signals that the NW flow regime will become a bit more
active as we head into early next week.  However, there seems to be
rather poor consistency both spatially and temporally with these
potential systems.  The 29/00Z GFS is advertising a weak front
pushing through on Monday with some associated convection, but the
GEFS/GEM/ECMWF are not on board so will leave Monday dry for now.
Will go ahead and bring in pops Tuesday as yet another front
attempts to make southern progress into the Ohio Valley.  Several
waves may ride along this front which may keep precipitation in the
forecast through the middle/end of next week, outside the scope of
this official forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2015

One more steamy morning, with the fog limited by a short night and
debris clouds from yesterday`s convection. Visibilities currently
running MVFR, but the sun is coming up and temp/dewpoint spreads are
already widening. Will initialize MVFR vis for the first couple of
hours.

Diurnal cu field should get going by mid/late morning, but should
remain scattered through the day. Cold front will get close enough
by 20-21Z to warrant VCTS/CB mention, but any direct impact remains
too uncertain for a TEMPO. Could see brief IFR when T-storms are
directly on any of the airports, but duration is both short and
uncertain.

Front and associated convection should be southeast of BWG and LEX
by 02-03Z, but will hang up close enough to allow some moisture
pooling to continue through the night. MVFR visibility appears to be
a good bet for much of the overnight period, but any IFR restriction
will depend on how much rain falls this afternoon.

Confidence is low with the convection, but moderate to high with fog
potential both mornings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS







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