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000
FXUS63 KLMK 312332
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
732 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected This Afternoon
and Evening...
...Wintry Mix Likely This Evening Changing to Snow with Minor
Accumulations Possible East of I-65...

Potent upper low, over northern Indiana this hour, will continue
diving southward this afternoon. It will get to central Kentucky
late this evening. As it does so, we should see continue
precipitation chances the next at least 12 hours. Colder air
continues to filter into the region behind now gusty northwest
winds. That should mean our first snowflakes of the season by this
evening for a lot of the region, though our western third of our
forecast area may dry out before that happens.

The main question here is how fast the snow will fall how long it
stays on the ground to account for accumulations. Soil temperatures
continue to be too warm to support light to even moderate snow rates
accumulating. Heavier bands may be able to dump half inch to an inch
over narrow swaths. Still think the main concern would be
visibilities within the heavier snow bands, but fortunately expect
the worst of the conditions to occur during non-rush hour travel
times. Will continue to handle with special weather statements for
now.

As for the cold, the freeze warning for Saturday morning will stay
up for now. Have a little less confidence in freeze conditions
occurring over south Kentucky, but again will maintain the product
for consistency sake with OHX. Temperatures will not warm much
Saturday under skies that should be clearing from west to east
through the day. Have max readings going up to around 40 over the
Bluegrass and the mid to upper 40s in the west. High pressure moving
in from the west late will mean lows Sunday morning in the 20s
areawide. Issued an earlier upgrade to a freeze warning for this
period, and this freeze should end the growing season and
consequently the need for further freeze/frost products.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

After a bitter cold start to Sunday, the long term forecast story
will feature slowly moderating temperatures with the next chance of
rain coming mid-week associated with another frontal passage.

Upper level ridging will move east over the Ohio River valley Sunday
as the anomalous upper trough begins to exit off the east coast. At
the surface, cool Canadian high pressure is expected to be directly
overhead, providing light winds and full sunshine. Despite this, the
unseasonably cold air mass will persist, keeping high temperatures
only in the lower to middle 40s across the east, around 50 degrees
along the I-65 corridor, and lower 50s in the west.

As a new upper level shortwave trough digs across the southwest US,
broad southwesterly flow will develop downstream across the central
Plains and into the Ohio River valley. 850 mb temperatures rise from
+2C on 18z Sunday to +11C on 18z Monday, so highs Monday should top
out in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

31.12z model guidance continues to show a low pressure system
developing across the northern Plains early next week and then
lifting into southern Canada. This looks to drive a cold front
across the area beginning on Tuesday afternoon. Moisture return from
the Gulf will aid in shower development as the front crosses Tuesday
night. Still some timing differences between various deterministic
models but a model consensus of 40-60 percent chances look good for
Tuesday night and Wednesday, dropping to 20-30 percent as the front
pushes out of the area. In the wake of this system, another shot of
cooler air drops south, though at this time doesn`t look to be too
unseasonably cold. Highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s and
overnight temperatures in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 732 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

A band of snow, sleet, and rain will move through SDF before the
beginning of this TAF period, between 2330Z and 00Z. This band of
precipitation will likely take visibilities MVFR (maybe IFR for a
few minutes) and may also take ceilings briefly below 2000 feet.

Otherwise...an upper low will drift southward across central
Kentucky this evening, bringing low clouds and a variety of
precipitation along with it.  At SDF the most likely time for the
most wintry precip and most reduced cigs/vsbys appears to be before
midnight as a north-south oriented band moves southward out of
central Indiana.  At LEX, the most likely time for the most negative
impact appears to be between midnight and dawn as another slug of
moisture comes in from eastern Indiana and western Ohio.  BWG will
be on the westernmost edge of this area of inclement weather and
should only see some MVFR ceilings and passing showers.

Winds will continue to be gusty out of the northwest tonight, and
NNW on Saturday.

High pressure entering from the west and the departure of the upper
low will lead to gradually improving conditions tomorrow.  While a
few lingering patches of light snow will be possible at LEX early in
the morning, overall it should be a dry day with low ceilings slowly
lifting to VFR by afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/
     Saturday FOR KYZ023>028-053-061>064-070>076-081.

     FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 AM EST
     /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/
     Saturday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 AM EST
     /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13







000
FXUS63 KLMK 312146
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
546 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected This Afternoon
and Evening...
...Wintry Mix Likely This Evening Changing to Snow with Minor
Accumulations Possible East of I-65...

Potent upper low, over northern Indiana this hour, will continue
diving southward this afternoon. It will get to central Kentucky
late this evening. As it does so, we should see continue
precipitation chances the next at least 12 hours. Colder air
continues to filter into the region behind now gusty northwest
winds. That should mean our first snowflakes of the season by this
evening for a lot of the region, though our western third of our
forecast area may dry out before that happens.

The main question here is how fast the snow will fall how long it
stays on the ground to account for accumulations. Soil temperatures
continue to be too warm to support light to even moderate snow rates
accumulating. Heavier bands may be able to dump half inch to an inch
over narrow swaths. Still think the main concern would be
visibilities within the heavier snow bands, but fortunately expect
the worst of the conditions to occur during non-rush hour travel
times. Will continue to handle with special weather statements for
now.

As for the cold, the freeze warning for Saturday morning will stay
up for now. Have a little less confidence in freeze conditions
occurring over south Kentucky, but again will maintain the product
for consistency sake with OHX. Temperatures will not warm much
Saturday under skies that should be clearing from west to east
through the day. Have max readings going up to around 40 over the
Bluegrass and the mid to upper 40s in the west. High pressure moving
in from the west late will mean lows Sunday morning in the 20s
areawide. Issued an earlier upgrade to a freeze warning for this
period, and this freeze should end the growing season and
consequently the need for further freeze/frost products.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

After a bitter cold start to Sunday, the long term forecast story
will feature slowly moderating temperatures with the next chance of
rain coming mid-week associated with another frontal passage.

Upper level ridging will move east over the Ohio River valley Sunday
as the anomalous upper trough begins to exit off the east coast. At
the surface, cool Canadian high pressure is expected to be directly
overhead, providing light winds and full sunshine. Despite this, the
unseasonably cold air mass will persist, keeping high temperatures
only in the lower to middle 40s across the east, around 50 degrees
along the I-65 corridor, and lower 50s in the west.

As a new upper level shortwave trough digs across the southwest US,
broad southwesterly flow will develop downstream across the central
Plains and into the Ohio River valley. 850 mb temperatures rise from
+2C on 18z Sunday to +11C on 18z Monday, so highs Monday should top
out in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

31.12z model guidance continues to show a low pressure system
developing across the northern Plains early next week and then
lifting into southern Canada. This looks to drive a cold front
across the area beginning on Tuesday afternoon. Moisture return from
the Gulf will aid in shower development as the front crosses Tuesday
night. Still some timing differences between various deterministic
models but a model consensus of 40-60 percent chances look good for
Tuesday night and Wednesday, dropping to 20-30 percent as the front
pushes out of the area. In the wake of this system, another shot of
cooler air drops south, though at this time doesn`t look to be too
unseasonably cold. Highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s and
overnight temperatures in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (21Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 546 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Breaks in the overcast and higher ceilings have developed over
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky recently as we sit between
clouds ejecting northeastward ahead of an upper level disturbance
over Indiana, and clouds streaming southward behind the
disturbance.  The prevailing low-end VFR conditions should last long
enough at SDF to go ahead and AMD the TAF for the next couple of
hours before MVFR cigs move back in.


Updated at 125 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Conditions beginning to worsen at the TAF sites as a second upper
level disturbance over northern Indiana is beginning to influence
our weather. This system is forcing a cold front across the region
at this time, with winds picking up at SDF and coming from the NW at
BWG. The best chance for precip will be at SDF/LEX, so have tempo
groups there for MVFR at those sites, and cannot rule out IFR
conditions either. Rain will switch over to snow at some point this
evening at both sites, and will have to watch for bands of moderate
snow to develop this evening. Winds should stay gusty from the
north/northwest through the night as a tight pressure gradient
remains across the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/
     Saturday FOR KYZ023>028-053-061>064-070>076-081.

     FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 AM EST
     /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/
     Saturday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 AM EST
     /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13/RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 311858
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
258 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected This Afternoon
and Evening...
...Wintry Mix Likely This Evening Changing to Snow with Minor
Accumulations Possible East of I-65...

Potent upper low, over northern Indiana this hour, will continue
diving southward this afternoon. It will get to central Kentucky
late this evening. As it does so, we should see continue
precipitation chances the next at least 12 hours. Colder air
continues to filter into the region behind now gusty northwest
winds. That should mean our first snowflakes of the season by this
evening for a lot of the region, though our western third of our
forecast area may dry out before that happens.

The main question here is how fast the snow will fall how long it
stays on the ground to account for accumulations. Soil temperatures
continue to be too warm to support light to even moderate snow rates
accumulating. Heavier bands may be able to dump half inch to an inch
over narrow swaths. Still think the main concern would be
visibilities within the heavier snow bands, but fortunately expect
the worst of the conditions to occur during non-rush hour travel
times. Will continue to handle with special weather statements for
now.

As for the cold, the freeze warning for Saturday morning will stay
up for now. Have a little less confidence in freeze conditions
occurring over south Kentucky, but again will maintain the product
for consistency sake with OHX. Temperatures will not warm much
Saturday under skies that should be clearing from west to east
through the day. Have max readings going up to around 40 over the
Bluegrass and the mid to upper 40s in the west. High pressure moving
in from the west late will mean lows Sunday morning in the 20s
areawide. Issued an earlier upgrade to a freeze warning for this
period, and this freeze should end the growing season and
consequently the need for further freeze/frost products.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

After a bitter cold start to Sunday, the long term forecast story
will feature slowly moderating temperatures with the next chance of
rain coming mid-week associated with another frontal passage.

Upper level ridging will move east over the Ohio River valley Sunday
as the anomalous upper trough begins to exit off the east coast. At
the surface, cool Canadian high pressure is expected to be directly
overhead, providing light winds and full sunshine. Despite this, the
unseasonably cold air mass will persist, keeping high temperatures
only in the lower to middle 40s across the east, around 50 degrees
along the I-65 corridor, and lower 50s in the west.

As a new upper level shortwave trough digs across the southwest US,
broad southwesterly flow will develop downstream across the central
Plains and into the Ohio River valley. 850 mb temperatures rise from
+2C on 18z Sunday to +11C on 18z Monday, so highs Monday should top
out in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

31.12z model guidance continues to show a low pressure system
developing across the northern Plains early next week and then
lifting into southern Canada. This looks to drive a cold front
across the area beginning on Tuesday afternoon. Moisture return from
the Gulf will aid in shower development as the front crosses Tuesday
night. Still some timing differences between various deterministic
models but a model consensus of 40-60 percent chances look good for
Tuesday night and Wednesday, dropping to 20-30 percent as the front
pushes out of the area. In the wake of this system, another shot of
cooler air drops south, though at this time doesn`t look to be too
unseasonably cold. Highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s and
overnight temperatures in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Conditions beginning to worsen at the TAF sites as a second upper
level disturbance over northern Indiana is beginning to influence
our weather. This system is forcing a cold front across the region
at this time, with winds picking up at SDF and coming from the NW at
BWG. The best chance for precip will be at SDF/LEX, so have tempo
groups there for MVFR at those sites, and cannot rule out IFR
conditions either. Rain will switch over to snow at some point this
evening at both sites, and will have to watch for bands of moderate
snow to develop this evening. Winds should stay gusty from the
north/northwest through the night as a tight pressure gradient
remains across the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/
     Saturday FOR KYZ023>028-053-061>064-070>076-081.

     FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 AM EST
     /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/
     Saturday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 AM EST
     /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 311727
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
127 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Decided to go ahead and cancel part of the freeze watch, for roughly
the eastern half of the forecast area. Cloud cover and precipitation
should keep those areas at 32-33 degrees tonight. The other half of
the area looks to have lows of 30-31. Local policy is still being
bent a little in favor of collaboration, as we typically require
less than or equal to 30 degrees for 2 or more hours to verify a
freeze warning.

Issued an update to the special weather statement as well, still
looking for the best chance of snow over the eastern half of the
forecast area, but this snow should not be a problem for
accumulations, save for a slushy accumulation on grassy and elevated
surfaces.

Issued at 910 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Tweaked pop grids to account for break in precip. Another round of
light rain is coming in a few hours from the northwest, ahead of a
cold front. That front will bring blustery conditions this
afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph later this afternoon and
evening.

As for the snow chances tonight, we are still on track for some
banded precipitation to occur as the upper disturbance now over Lake
Michigan dives into central Kentucky. Latest WRF ARW had a
north-south oriented band of precipitation along the I-65 corridor
from 01-09Z which will bear watching to see if it plays out. Latest
HRRR doesn`t quite go out that far in time.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Today...

...Wintry Mix Likely This Evening Changing to Snow with Minor
Accumulations Possible East of I-65...

===================================
Short Term Synopsis
===================================

In the near term, first in a series of upper level waves is
transversing the region. This will bring mostly cloudy skies to the
region early this morning with scattered showers moving through the
area.  Associated with this lead wave is a surface cold front off to
the northwest.  This feature will swing through the region and allow
much colder air to filter into the region from the NW this morning
and through the afternoon hours.

Secondary/potent and unseasonably strong upper trough will drop
nearly southward out of the Great Lakes and into the eastern Ohio
Valley tonight.  This feature, combined with strong cold air
advection aloft will result in quite a bit of lift in the atmosphere
to produce widespread shower activity.  As the colder air aloft
descends further toward the surface this evening, the rain showers
will change to a wintry mix before ending a snow showers late
tonight and Saturday morning.  Some of the snow showers this evening
may occur in bands and may be locally heavy...resulting in minor
snow accumulations in areas mainly east of I-65.  The strong upper
trough will pull off to the south and east during the day on
Saturday resulting in drier conditions moving in from the W/NW...but
unseasonably cold temperatures are expected.

===================================
Model Preference & Confidence
===================================

Tonight`s model guidance continues to show relatively good
continuity from previous runs and are generally in good agreement.
The multi-model consensus suggests higher probabilities of
precipitation today with the two systems moving through the region.
Thus, will be increasing PoPs for this afternoon and evening.  All
model data suggest the pressure gradient will increase and
northwesterly winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 30-35 MPH will be
possible late this afternoon and evening.  The higher resolution
models continue to show the strong potential for TROWAL formation on
the backside of the upper wave coming through the region tonight.
These TRAWL`s`s can set up banded heavy precipitation and with
thermal profiles crashing tonight from top to bottom, current
thinking is that some bands of moderate to heavy snow will be
possible across our eastern areas.  Snow accumulations will continue
to be a challenge as the snow will be fighting relatively warm
ground temperatures and there is some uncertainty where any banded
precipitation develops.

Have generally favored the short term multi-model consensus for this
forecast. Have generally used a blend of the SuperBlend model
guidance for hourly T/Td which is fairly close to the raw 2m temps
from the NAM/GFS...but slightly cooler than the statistical MOS.  We
expect precipitation to gradually diminish late tonight as upper
level forcing exits the region and a decent push of drier air works
in aloft from the NW/W.  This drier air will infiltrate the entire
region during the day on Saturday.

Forecaster confidence on precipitation chances are higher than
average for Today and Tonight given the relative low spread in the
deterministic and ensemble guidance.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures is also higher than average for Today and Tonight.
Medium confidence on temperatures for Saturday exists due to
lingering uncertainty in how much clearing will develop from west
to east during the afternoon hours.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

For today, cloudy conditions with passing rain showers will be the
rule across the region. Daytime high temperatures will occur this
morning prior to the cold front pushing through the region.  Highs
will range from the upper 40s in the northwest to the lower 50s in
the southeast.  Once the front clears the area this afternoon,
northwesterly winds will pick up and sustained winds of 15-20 MPH
with gusts of 30-35 MPH will be possible this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures are expected to fall throughout the afternoon and
evening and will likely cool into the upper 30s to around 40 by
early evening.  As the evening wears on, colder air aloft will work
its way downward and allow precipitation to mix with snow.  It
appears that all precipitation will likely end as snow showers as
thermal profiles cool sufficiently.  At this time, rain will be the
pre-dominant precipitation type through early evening with a
rain/snow mix beginning around 7-8 PM and then a complete change
over to snow occurring by 11PM to Midnight.  Surface temperatures
this evening will likely remain above freezing.  Thus any mixed
precipitation will not accumulate on roadways and hazardous road
conditions are not expected.  The combination of falling
temperatures and gusty winds will lead to wind chill readings
falling into the upper teens to the lower 20s.

Late tonight, temperatures will approach the freezing mark...most
likely after 3 AM or so.  Light snow will likely be ongoing in areas
east of I-65 and if banded precipitation sets up, the snow may be
moderate to occasionally heavy at times.  The snow will be fighting
off relatively warm ground temperatures, so accumulations will be
difficult unless moderate/heavy precipitation occurs.  With this
thinking in mind, we feel some minor accumulations will be possible
in the eastern third of our forecast area...east of I-65.  The
highest chances of accumulation looks to be generally in areas east
of US 27/127.  Accumulations of a dusting to a light slushy
accumulation mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces will be possible
in this area.

Out west of I-65, some clearing will take place as this area will be
further west and in the more drier air.  If clearing takes place,
temperatures will have the potential to drop to around 30 degrees.
The pressure gradient will likely remain elevated enough to preclude
frost formation.  With temperatures expected to be close to
freezing, will leave the current freeze watch in place to preserve
continuity.  However, it appears that Saturday night will be much
more favorable for a season ending, killing freeze.

For Saturday, the upper trough will pull away from the region.
However, low clouds and some light precipitation may still be
ongoing out across our far eastern sections.  Slow clearing will
work across the central parts of the region.  It will be a
cool/crisp day with high temperatures only warming to around 40 in
areas east of US 27/127 with lower to middle 40s possible out in the
I-65 corridor and points west.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Sub-Freezing Temperatures Expected Sunday Morning...

Cold high pressure will move directly over the region Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Any lingering clouds Saturday evening across
the Bluegrass should clear out overnight. This will lead to a decent
setup for radiational cooling with the lowest temperatures of the
season expected. Lows on Sunday morning are expected to drop into
the mid to upper 20s in most locations, though the Louisville metro
may stay right around 30. These temperatures should put an end to
the growing season.

High pressure will shift east through the beginning of next week and
heights will build aloft. Temperatures will gradually warm through
Tuesday. While highs on Sunday will reach only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s, highs on Tuesday will be back into the mid 60s. Morning
lows will correspondingly increase to the lower 50s by Wednesday
morning.

The next system will affect the area midweek as a low pressure
system across Canada swings a cold front through. A few showers may
be possible Tuesday afternoon ahead of this front. However, the bulk
of the precipitation should move through Tuesday night and Wednesday
with showers likely across much of the area. Showers will move out
Wednesday night with just a few lingering in the east Thursday
morning. This front will bring cooler temperatures for the end of
next week, though they are not expected to be nearly as cold as
temperatures this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Conditions beginning to worsen at the TAF sites as a second upper
level disturbance over northern Indiana is beginning to influence
our weather. This system is forcing a cold front across the region
at this time, with winds picking up at SDF and coming from the NW at
BWG. The best chance for precip will be at SDF/LEX, so have tempo
groups there for MVFR at those sites, and cannot rule out IFR
conditions either. Rain will switch over to snow at some point this
evening at both sites, and will have to watch for bands of moderate
snow to develop this evening. Winds should stay gusty from the
north/northwest through the night as a tight pressure gradient
remains across the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/
     Saturday FOR KYZ023>028-053-061>064-070>076-081.

     FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 AM EST
     /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/
     Saturday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 AM EST
     /8 AM CST/ Sunday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 311315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
915 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Tweaked pop grids to account for break in precip. Another round of
light rain is coming in a few hours from the northwest, ahead of a
cold front. That front will bring blustery conditions this
afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph later this afternoon and
evening.

As for the snow chances tonight, we are still on track for some
banded precipitation to occur as the upper disturbance now over Lake
Michigan dives into central Kentucky. Latest WRF ARW had a
north-south oriented band of precipitation along the I-65 corridor
from 01-09Z which will bear watching to see if it plays out. Latest
HRRR doesn`t quite go out that far in time.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Today...

...Wintry Mix Likely This Evening Changing to Snow with Minor
Accumulations Possible East of I-65...

===================================
Short Term Synopsis
===================================

In the near term, first in a series of upper level waves is
transversing the region. This will bring mostly cloudy skies to the
region early this morning with scattered showers moving through the
area.  Associated with this lead wave is a surface cold front off to
the northwest.  This feature will swing through the region and allow
much colder air to filter into the region from the NW this morning
and through the afternoon hours.

Secondary/potent and unseasonably strong upper trough will drop
nearly southward out of the Great Lakes and into the eastern Ohio
Valley tonight.  This feature, combined with strong cold air
advection aloft will result in quite a bit of lift in the atmosphere
to produce widespread shower activity.  As the colder air aloft
descends further toward the surface this evening, the rain showers
will change to a wintry mix before ending a snow showers late
tonight and Saturday morning.  Some of the snow showers this evening
may occur in bands and may be locally heavy...resulting in minor
snow accumulations in areas mainly east of I-65.  The strong upper
trough will pull off to the south and east during the day on
Saturday resulting in drier conditions moving in from the W/NW...but
unseasonably cold temperatures are expected.

===================================
Model Preference & Confidence
===================================

Tonight`s model guidance continues to show relatively good
continuity from previous runs and are generally in good agreement.
The multi-model consensus suggests higher probabilities of
precipitation today with the two systems moving through the region.
Thus, will be increasing PoPs for this afternoon and evening.  All
model data suggest the pressure gradient will increase and
northwesterly winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 30-35 MPH will be
possible late this afternoon and evening.  The higher resolution
models continue to show the strong potential for TROWAL formation on
the backside of the upper wave coming through the region tonight.
These TRAWL`s`s can set up banded heavy precipitation and with
thermal profiles crashing tonight from top to bottom, current
thinking is that some bands of moderate to heavy snow will be
possible across our eastern areas.  Snow accumulations will continue
to be a challenge as the snow will be fighting relatively warm
ground temperatures and there is some uncertainty where any banded
precipitation develops.

Have generally favored the short term multi-model consensus for this
forecast. Have generally used a blend of the SuperBlend model
guidance for hourly T/Td which is fairly close to the raw 2m temps
from the NAM/GFS...but slightly cooler than the statistical MOS.  We
expect precipitation to gradually diminish late tonight as upper
level forcing exits the region and a decent push of drier air works
in aloft from the NW/W.  This drier air will infiltrate the entire
region during the day on Saturday.

Forecaster confidence on precipitation chances are higher than
average for Today and Tonight given the relative low spread in the
deterministic and ensemble guidance.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures is also higher than average for Today and Tonight.
Medium confidence on temperatures for Saturday exists due to
lingering uncertainty in how much clearing will develop from west
to east during the afternoon hours.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

For today, cloudy conditions with passing rain showers will be the
rule across the region. Daytime high temperatures will occur this
morning prior to the cold front pushing through the region.  Highs
will range from the upper 40s in the northwest to the lower 50s in
the southeast.  Once the front clears the area this afternoon,
northwesterly winds will pick up and sustained winds of 15-20 MPH
with gusts of 30-35 MPH will be possible this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures are expected to fall throughout the afternoon and
evening and will likely cool into the upper 30s to around 40 by
early evening.  As the evening wears on, colder air aloft will work
its way downward and allow precipitation to mix with snow.  It
appears that all precipitation will likely end as snow showers as
thermal profiles cool sufficiently.  At this time, rain will be the
pre-dominant precipitation type through early evening with a
rain/snow mix beginning around 7-8 PM and then a complete change
over to snow occurring by 11PM to Midnight.  Surface temperatures
this evening will likely remain above freezing.  Thus any mixed
precipitation will not accumulate on roadways and hazardous road
conditions are not expected.  The combination of falling
temperatures and gusty winds will lead to wind chill readings
falling into the upper teens to the lower 20s.

Late tonight, temperatures will approach the freezing mark...most
likely after 3 AM or so.  Light snow will likely be ongoing in areas
east of I-65 and if banded precipitation sets up, the snow may be
moderate to occasionally heavy at times.  The snow will be fighting
off relatively warm ground temperatures, so accumulations will be
difficult unless moderate/heavy precipitation occurs.  With this
thinking in mind, we feel some minor accumulations will be possible
in the eastern third of our forecast area...east of I-65.  The
highest chances of accumulation looks to be generally in areas east
of US 27/127.  Accumulations of a dusting to a light slushy
accumulation mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces will be possible
in this area.

Out west of I-65, some clearing will take place as this area will be
further west and in the more drier air.  If clearing takes place,
temperatures will have the potential to drop to around 30 degrees.
The pressure gradient will likely remain elevated enough to preclude
frost formation.  With temperatures expected to be close to
freezing, will leave the current freeze watch in place to preserve
continuity.  However, it appears that Saturday night will be much
more favorable for a season ending, killing freeze.

For Saturday, the upper trough will pull away from the region.
However, low clouds and some light precipitation may still be
ongoing out across our far eastern sections.  Slow clearing will
work across the central parts of the region.  It will be a
cool/crisp day with high temperatures only warming to around 40 in
areas east of US 27/127 with lower to middle 40s possible out in the
I-65 corridor and points west.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Sub-Freezing Temperatures Expected Sunday Morning...

Cold high pressure will move directly over the region Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Any lingering clouds Saturday evening across
the Bluegrass should clear out overnight. This will lead to a decent
setup for radiational cooling with the lowest temperatures of the
season expected. Lows on Sunday morning are expected to drop into
the mid to upper 20s in most locations, though the Louisville metro
may stay right around 30. These temperatures should put an end to
the growing season.

High pressure will shift east through the beginning of next week and
heights will build aloft. Temperatures will gradually warm through
Tuesday. While highs on Sunday will reach only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s, highs on Tuesday will be back into the mid 60s. Morning
lows will correspondingly increase to the lower 50s by Wednesday
morning.

The next system will affect the area midweek as a low pressure
system across Canada swings a cold front through. A few showers may
be possible Tuesday afternoon ahead of this front. However, the bulk
of the precipitation should move through Tuesday night and Wednesday
with showers likely across much of the area. Showers will move out
Wednesday night with just a few lingering in the east Thursday
morning. This front will bring cooler temperatures for the end of
next week, though they are not expected to be nearly as cold as
temperatures this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 642 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

First in a series of mid-level disturbances is moving through the
region this morning.  This has brought widespread clouds and light
precipitation.  Expect ceilings to hover around the MVFR/VFR
threshold this morning with precipitation moving east of KBWG/KSDF
by 31/14Z and then exiting the KLEX terminal by 31/15Z time frame or
so.  As we see a brief lull in the precipitation, winds will shift
to the northwest and start to pick up.

For this afternoon/eve, widespread shower activity should pick up
once again as a stronger and more potent upper level wave dives out
of Wisconsin and toward eastern KY.  This will bring an increase in
winds from the NW with sustained speeds of 12-16kts and gusts up to
25-30kts.  Rain showers and MVFR ceilings are expected at the
terminals.  Colder air will push into the region this evening
resulting in the rain showers changing over to snow showers.  Snow
will likely bring the most impact over at KLEX where MVFR cigs/vsbys
will be possible after 01/03Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 311043
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
643 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Today...

...Wintry Mix Likely This Evening Changing to Snow with Minor
Accumulations Possible East of I-65...

===================================
Short Term Synopsis
===================================

In the near term, first in a series of upper level waves is
transversing the region. This will bring mostly cloudy skies to the
region early this morning with scattered showers moving through the
area.  Associated with this lead wave is a surface cold front off to
the northwest.  This feature will swing through the region and allow
much colder air to filter into the region from the NW this morning
and through the afternoon hours.

Secondary/potent and unseasonably strong upper trough will drop
nearly southward out of the Great Lakes and into the eastern Ohio
Valley tonight.  This feature, combined with strong cold air
advection aloft will result in quite a bit of lift in the atmosphere
to produce widespread shower activity.  As the colder air aloft
descends further toward the surface this evening, the rain showers
will change to a wintry mix before ending a snow showers late
tonight and Saturday morning.  Some of the snow showers this evening
may occur in bands and may be locally heavy...resulting in minor
snow accumulations in areas mainly east of I-65.  The strong upper
trough will pull off to the south and east during the day on
Saturday resulting in drier conditions moving in from the W/NW...but
unseasonably cold temperatures are expected.

===================================
Model Preference & Confidence
===================================

Tonight`s model guidance continues to show relatively good
continuity from previous runs and are generally in good agreement.
The multi-model consensus suggests higher probabilities of
precipitation today with the two systems moving through the region.
Thus, will be increasing PoPs for this afternoon and evening.  All
model data suggest the pressure gradient will increase and
northwesterly winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 30-35 MPH will be
possible late this afternoon and evening.  The higher resolution
models continue to show the strong potential for TROWAL formation on
the backside of the upper wave coming through the region tonight.
These TRAWL`s`s can set up banded heavy precipitation and with
thermal profiles crashing tonight from top to bottom, current
thinking is that some bands of moderate to heavy snow will be
possible across our eastern areas.  Snow accumulations will continue
to be a challenge as the snow will be fighting relatively warm
ground temperatures and there is some uncertainty where any banded
precipitation develops.

Have generally favored the short term multi-model consensus for this
forecast. Have generally used a blend of the SuperBlend model
guidance for hourly T/Td which is fairly close to the raw 2m temps
from the NAM/GFS...but slightly cooler than the statistical MOS.  We
expect precipitation to gradually diminish late tonight as upper
level forcing exits the region and a decent push of drier air works
in aloft from the NW/W.  This drier air will infiltrate the entire
region during the day on Saturday.

Forecaster confidence on precipitation chances are higher than
average for Today and Tonight given the relative low spread in the
deterministic and ensemble guidance.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures is also higher than average for Today and Tonight.
Medium confidence on temperatures for Saturday exists due to
lingering uncertainty in how much clearing will develop from west
to east during the afternoon hours.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

For today, cloudy conditions with passing rain showers will be the
rule across the region. Daytime high temperatures will occur this
morning prior to the cold front pushing through the region.  Highs
will range from the upper 40s in the northwest to the lower 50s in
the southeast.  Once the front clears the area this afternoon,
northwesterly winds will pick up and sustained winds of 15-20 MPH
with gusts of 30-35 MPH will be possible this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures are expected to fall throughout the afternoon and
evening and will likely cool into the upper 30s to around 40 by
early evening.  As the evening wears on, colder air aloft will work
its way downward and allow precipitation to mix with snow.  It
appears that all precipitation will likely end as snow showers as
thermal profiles cool sufficiently.  At this time, rain will be the
pre-dominant precipitation type through early evening with a
rain/snow mix beginning around 7-8 PM and then a complete change
over to snow occurring by 11PM to Midnight.  Surface temperatures
this evening will likely remain above freezing.  Thus any mixed
precipitation will not accumulate on roadways and hazardous road
conditions are not expected.  The combination of falling
temperatures and gusty winds will lead to wind chill readings
falling into the upper teens to the lower 20s.

Late tonight, temperatures will approach the freezing mark...most
likely after 3 AM or so.  Light snow will likely be ongoing in areas
east of I-65 and if banded precipitation sets up, the snow may be
moderate to occasionally heavy at times.  The snow will be fighting
off relatively warm ground temperatures, so accumulations will be
difficult unless moderate/heavy precipitation occurs.  With this
thinking in mind, we feel some minor accumulations will be possible
in the eastern third of our forecast area...east of I-65.  The
highest chances of accumulation looks to be generally in areas east
of US 27/127.  Accumulations of a dusting to a light slushy
accumulation mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces will be possible
in this area.

Out west of I-65, some clearing will take place as this area will be
further west and in the more drier air.  If clearing takes place,
temperatures will have the potential to drop to around 30 degrees.
The pressure gradient will likely remain elevated enough to preclude
frost formation.  With temperatures expected to be close to
freezing, will leave the current freeze watch in place to preserve
continuity.  However, it appears that Saturday night will be much
more favorable for a season ending, killing freeze.

For Saturday, the upper trough will pull away from the region.
However, low clouds and some light precipitation may still be
ongoing out across our far eastern sections.  Slow clearing will
work across the central parts of the region.  It will be a
cool/crisp day with high temperatures only warming to around 40 in
areas east of US 27/127 with lower to middle 40s possible out in the
I-65 corridor and points west.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Sub-Freezing Temperatures Expected Sunday Morning...

Cold high pressure will move directly over the region Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Any lingering clouds Saturday evening across
the Bluegrass should clear out overnight. This will lead to a decent
setup for radiational cooling with the lowest temperatures of the
season expected. Lows on Sunday morning are expected to drop into
the mid to upper 20s in most locations, though the Louisville metro
may stay right around 30. These temperatures should put an end to
the growing season.

High pressure will shift east through the beginning of next week and
heights will build aloft. Temperatures will gradually warm through
Tuesday. While highs on Sunday will reach only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s, highs on Tuesday will be back into the mid 60s. Morning
lows will correspondingly increase to the lower 50s by Wednesday
morning.

The next system will affect the area midweek as a low pressure
system across Canada swings a cold front through. A few showers may
be possible Tuesday afternoon ahead of this front. However, the bulk
of the precipitation should move through Tuesday night and Wednesday
with showers likely across much of the area. Showers will move out
Wednesday night with just a few lingering in the east Thursday
morning. This front will bring cooler temperatures for the end of
next week, though they are not expected to be nearly as cold as
temperatures this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 642 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

First in a series of mid-level disturbances is moving through the
region this morning.  This has brought widespread clouds and light
precipitation.  Expect ceilings to hover around the MVFR/VFR
threshold this morning with precipitation moving east of KBWG/KSDF
by 31/14Z and then exiting the KLEX terminal by 31/15Z time frame or
so.  As we see a brief lull in the precipitation, winds will shift
to the northwest and start to pick up.

For this afternoon/eve, widespread shower activity should pick up
once again as a stronger and more potent upper level wave dives out
of Wisconsin and toward eastern KY.  This will bring an increase in
winds from the NW with sustained speeds of 12-16kts and gusts up to
25-30kts.  Rain showers and MVFR ceilings are expected at the
terminals.  Colder air will push into the region this evening
resulting in the rain showers changing over to snow showers.  Snow
will likely bring the most impact over at KLEX where MVFR cigs/vsbys
will be possible after 01/03Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 311043
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
643 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Today...

...Wintry Mix Likely This Evening Changing to Snow with Minor
Accumulations Possible East of I-65...

===================================
Short Term Synopsis
===================================

In the near term, first in a series of upper level waves is
transversing the region. This will bring mostly cloudy skies to the
region early this morning with scattered showers moving through the
area.  Associated with this lead wave is a surface cold front off to
the northwest.  This feature will swing through the region and allow
much colder air to filter into the region from the NW this morning
and through the afternoon hours.

Secondary/potent and unseasonably strong upper trough will drop
nearly southward out of the Great Lakes and into the eastern Ohio
Valley tonight.  This feature, combined with strong cold air
advection aloft will result in quite a bit of lift in the atmosphere
to produce widespread shower activity.  As the colder air aloft
descends further toward the surface this evening, the rain showers
will change to a wintry mix before ending a snow showers late
tonight and Saturday morning.  Some of the snow showers this evening
may occur in bands and may be locally heavy...resulting in minor
snow accumulations in areas mainly east of I-65.  The strong upper
trough will pull off to the south and east during the day on
Saturday resulting in drier conditions moving in from the W/NW...but
unseasonably cold temperatures are expected.

===================================
Model Preference & Confidence
===================================

Tonight`s model guidance continues to show relatively good
continuity from previous runs and are generally in good agreement.
The multi-model consensus suggests higher probabilities of
precipitation today with the two systems moving through the region.
Thus, will be increasing PoPs for this afternoon and evening.  All
model data suggest the pressure gradient will increase and
northwesterly winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 30-35 MPH will be
possible late this afternoon and evening.  The higher resolution
models continue to show the strong potential for TROWAL formation on
the backside of the upper wave coming through the region tonight.
These TRAWL`s`s can set up banded heavy precipitation and with
thermal profiles crashing tonight from top to bottom, current
thinking is that some bands of moderate to heavy snow will be
possible across our eastern areas.  Snow accumulations will continue
to be a challenge as the snow will be fighting relatively warm
ground temperatures and there is some uncertainty where any banded
precipitation develops.

Have generally favored the short term multi-model consensus for this
forecast. Have generally used a blend of the SuperBlend model
guidance for hourly T/Td which is fairly close to the raw 2m temps
from the NAM/GFS...but slightly cooler than the statistical MOS.  We
expect precipitation to gradually diminish late tonight as upper
level forcing exits the region and a decent push of drier air works
in aloft from the NW/W.  This drier air will infiltrate the entire
region during the day on Saturday.

Forecaster confidence on precipitation chances are higher than
average for Today and Tonight given the relative low spread in the
deterministic and ensemble guidance.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures is also higher than average for Today and Tonight.
Medium confidence on temperatures for Saturday exists due to
lingering uncertainty in how much clearing will develop from west
to east during the afternoon hours.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

For today, cloudy conditions with passing rain showers will be the
rule across the region. Daytime high temperatures will occur this
morning prior to the cold front pushing through the region.  Highs
will range from the upper 40s in the northwest to the lower 50s in
the southeast.  Once the front clears the area this afternoon,
northwesterly winds will pick up and sustained winds of 15-20 MPH
with gusts of 30-35 MPH will be possible this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures are expected to fall throughout the afternoon and
evening and will likely cool into the upper 30s to around 40 by
early evening.  As the evening wears on, colder air aloft will work
its way downward and allow precipitation to mix with snow.  It
appears that all precipitation will likely end as snow showers as
thermal profiles cool sufficiently.  At this time, rain will be the
pre-dominant precipitation type through early evening with a
rain/snow mix beginning around 7-8 PM and then a complete change
over to snow occurring by 11PM to Midnight.  Surface temperatures
this evening will likely remain above freezing.  Thus any mixed
precipitation will not accumulate on roadways and hazardous road
conditions are not expected.  The combination of falling
temperatures and gusty winds will lead to wind chill readings
falling into the upper teens to the lower 20s.

Late tonight, temperatures will approach the freezing mark...most
likely after 3 AM or so.  Light snow will likely be ongoing in areas
east of I-65 and if banded precipitation sets up, the snow may be
moderate to occasionally heavy at times.  The snow will be fighting
off relatively warm ground temperatures, so accumulations will be
difficult unless moderate/heavy precipitation occurs.  With this
thinking in mind, we feel some minor accumulations will be possible
in the eastern third of our forecast area...east of I-65.  The
highest chances of accumulation looks to be generally in areas east
of US 27/127.  Accumulations of a dusting to a light slushy
accumulation mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces will be possible
in this area.

Out west of I-65, some clearing will take place as this area will be
further west and in the more drier air.  If clearing takes place,
temperatures will have the potential to drop to around 30 degrees.
The pressure gradient will likely remain elevated enough to preclude
frost formation.  With temperatures expected to be close to
freezing, will leave the current freeze watch in place to preserve
continuity.  However, it appears that Saturday night will be much
more favorable for a season ending, killing freeze.

For Saturday, the upper trough will pull away from the region.
However, low clouds and some light precipitation may still be
ongoing out across our far eastern sections.  Slow clearing will
work across the central parts of the region.  It will be a
cool/crisp day with high temperatures only warming to around 40 in
areas east of US 27/127 with lower to middle 40s possible out in the
I-65 corridor and points west.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Sub-Freezing Temperatures Expected Sunday Morning...

Cold high pressure will move directly over the region Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Any lingering clouds Saturday evening across
the Bluegrass should clear out overnight. This will lead to a decent
setup for radiational cooling with the lowest temperatures of the
season expected. Lows on Sunday morning are expected to drop into
the mid to upper 20s in most locations, though the Louisville metro
may stay right around 30. These temperatures should put an end to
the growing season.

High pressure will shift east through the beginning of next week and
heights will build aloft. Temperatures will gradually warm through
Tuesday. While highs on Sunday will reach only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s, highs on Tuesday will be back into the mid 60s. Morning
lows will correspondingly increase to the lower 50s by Wednesday
morning.

The next system will affect the area midweek as a low pressure
system across Canada swings a cold front through. A few showers may
be possible Tuesday afternoon ahead of this front. However, the bulk
of the precipitation should move through Tuesday night and Wednesday
with showers likely across much of the area. Showers will move out
Wednesday night with just a few lingering in the east Thursday
morning. This front will bring cooler temperatures for the end of
next week, though they are not expected to be nearly as cold as
temperatures this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 642 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

First in a series of mid-level disturbances is moving through the
region this morning.  This has brought widespread clouds and light
precipitation.  Expect ceilings to hover around the MVFR/VFR
threshold this morning with precipitation moving east of KBWG/KSDF
by 31/14Z and then exiting the KLEX terminal by 31/15Z time frame or
so.  As we see a brief lull in the precipitation, winds will shift
to the northwest and start to pick up.

For this afternoon/eve, widespread shower activity should pick up
once again as a stronger and more potent upper level wave dives out
of Wisconsin and toward eastern KY.  This will bring an increase in
winds from the NW with sustained speeds of 12-16kts and gusts up to
25-30kts.  Rain showers and MVFR ceilings are expected at the
terminals.  Colder air will push into the region this evening
resulting in the rain showers changing over to snow showers.  Snow
will likely bring the most impact over at KLEX where MVFR cigs/vsbys
will be possible after 01/03Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 310700
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Today...

...Wintry Mix Likely This Evening Changing to Snow with Minor
Accumulations Possible East of I-65...

===================================
Short Term Synopsis
===================================

In the near term, first in a series of upper level waves is
transversing the region. This will bring mostly cloudy skies to the
region early this morning with scattered showers moving through the
area.  Associated with this lead wave is a surface cold front off to
the northwest.  This feature will swing through the region and allow
much colder air to filter into the region from the NW this morning
and through the afternoon hours.

Secondary/potent and unseasonably strong upper trough will drop
nearly southward out of the Great Lakes and into the eastern Ohio
Valley tonight.  This feature, combined with strong cold air
advection aloft will result in quite a bit of lift in the atmosphere
to produce widespread shower activity.  As the colder air aloft
descends further toward the surface this evening, the rain showers
will change to a wintry mix before ending a snow showers late
tonight and Saturday morning.  Some of the snow showers this evening
may occur in bands and may be locally heavy...resulting in minor
snow accumulations in areas mainly east of I-65.  The strong upper
trough will pull off to the south and east during the day on
Saturday resulting in drier conditions moving in from the W/NW...but
unseasonably cold temperatures are expected.

===================================
Model Preference & Confidence
===================================

Tonight`s model guidance continues to show relatively good
continuity from previous runs and are generally in good agreement.
The multi-model consensus suggests higher probabilities of
precipitation today with the two systems moving through the region.
Thus, will be increasing PoPs for this afternoon and evening.  All
model data suggest the pressure gradient will increase and
northwesterly winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 30-35 MPH will be
possible late this afternoon and evening.  The higher resolution
models continue to show the strong potential for TROWAL formation on
the backside of the upper wave coming through the region tonight.
These TRAWL`s`s can set up banded heavy precipitation and with
thermal profiles crashing tonight from top to bottom, current
thinking is that some bands of moderate to heavy snow will be
possible across our eastern areas.  Snow accumulations will continue
to be a challenge as the snow will be fighting relatively warm
ground temperatures and there is some uncertainty where any banded
precipitation develops.

Have generally favored the short term multi-model consensus for this
forecast. Have generally used a blend of the SuperBlend model
guidance for hourly T/Td which is fairly close to the raw 2m temps
from the NAM/GFS...but slightly cooler than the statistical MOS.  We
expect precipitation to gradually diminish late tonight as upper
level forcing exits the region and a decent push of drier air works
in aloft from the NW/W.  This drier air will infiltrate the entire
region during the day on Saturday.

Forecaster confidence on precipitation chances are higher than
average for Today and Tonight given the relative low spread in the
deterministic and ensemble guidance.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures is also higher than average for Today and Tonight.
Medium confidence on temperatures for Saturday exists due to
lingering uncertainty in how much clearing will develop from west
to east during the afternoon hours.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

For today, cloudy conditions with passing rain showers will be the
rule across the region. Daytime high temperatures will occur this
morning prior to the cold front pushing through the region.  Highs
will range from the upper 40s in the northwest to the lower 50s in
the southeast.  Once the front clears the area this afternoon,
northwesterly winds will pick up and sustained winds of 15-20 MPH
with gusts of 30-35 MPH will be possible this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures are expected to fall throughout the afternoon and
evening and will likely cool into the upper 30s to around 40 by
early evening.  As the evening wears on, colder air aloft will work
its way downward and allow precipitation to mix with snow.  It
appears that all precipitation will likely end as snow showers as
thermal profiles cool sufficiently.  At this time, rain will be the
pre-dominant precipitation type through early evening with a
rain/snow mix beginning around 7-8 PM and then a complete change
over to snow occurring by 11PM to Midnight.  Surface temperatures
this evening will likely remain above freezing.  Thus any mixed
precipitation will not accumulate on roadways and hazardous road
conditions are not expected.  The combination of falling
temperatures and gusty winds will lead to wind chill readings
falling into the upper teens to the lower 20s.

Late tonight, temperatures will approach the freezing mark...most
likely after 3 AM or so.  Light snow will likely be ongoing in areas
east of I-65 and if banded precipitation sets up, the snow may be
moderate to occasionally heavy at times.  The snow will be fighting
off relatively warm ground temperatures, so accumulations will be
difficult unless moderate/heavy precipitation occurs.  With this
thinking in mind, we feel some minor accumulations will be possible
in the eastern third of our forecast area...east of I-65.  The
highest chances of accumulation looks to be generally in areas east
of US 27/127.  Accumulations of a dusting to a light slushy
accumulation mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces will be possible
in this area.

Out west of I-65, some clearing will take place as this area will be
further west and in the more drier air.  If clearing takes place,
temperatures will have the potential to drop to around 30 degrees.
The pressure gradient will likely remain elevated enough to preclude
frost formation.  With temperatures expected to be close to
freezing, will leave the current freeze watch in place to preserve
continuity.  However, it appears that Saturday night will be much
more favorable for a season ending, killing freeze.

For Saturday, the upper trough will pull away from the region.
However, low clouds and some light precipitation may still be
ongoing out across our far eastern sections.  Slow clearing will
work across the central parts of the region.  It will be a
cool/crisp day with high temperatures only warming to around 40 in
areas east of US 27/127 with lower to middle 40s possible out in the
I-65 corridor and points west.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Sub-Freezing Temperatures Expected Sunday Morning...

Cold high pressure will move directly over the region Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Any lingering clouds Saturday evening across
the Bluegrass should clear out overnight. This will lead to a decent
setup for radiational cooling with the lowest temperatures of the
season expected. Lows on Sunday morning are expected to drop into
the mid to upper 20s in most locations, though the Louisville metro
may stay right around 30. These temperatures should put an end to
the growing season.

High pressure will shift east through the beginning of next week and
heights will build aloft. Temperatures will gradually warm through
Tuesday. While highs on Sunday will reach only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s, highs on Tuesday will be back into the mid 60s. Morning
lows will correspondingly increase to the lower 50s by Wednesday
morning.

The next system will affect the area midweek as a low pressure
system across Canada swings a cold front through. A few showers may
be possible Tuesday afternoon ahead of this front. However, the bulk
of the precipitation should move through Tuesday night and Wednesday
with showers likely across much of the area. Showers will move out
Wednesday night with just a few lingering in the east Thursday
morning. This front will bring cooler temperatures for the end of
next week, though they are not expected to be nearly as cold as
temperatures this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1250 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Combo of a mid-level disturbance and surface front will impact the
terminals overnight.  Mostly cloudy conditions are expected with
ceilings remain at VFR levels throughout the night.  Ceilings should
generally fall from around 8-10kft AGL to around 4kft AGL by
morning.  Some scattered rain showers will be possible across the
region, but visibilities should remain above VFR as well.

After frontal passage, winds will shift around the northwest and the
pressure gradient will tighten up.  Scattered showers will be mainly
possible across the northern part of the area (KSDF and KLEX) with
ceilings dropping down to MVFR levels during the afternoon.
Northwest winds will start off at 8-10kts and then increase to
15-18kt with gusts of 25-30kts being possible through the late
afternoon and evening hours.  Strong cold air advection will work in
during the evening hours.  This will allow precipitation to mix with
light snow during the evening (mainly after 01/00Z) at KSDF and KLEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 310451
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1251 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 748 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Scattered showers associated with the first shortwave approaching
the area remain just to the west and northwest of the forecast area
this evening. These showers will move in over the next couple of
hours. The best chance for showers will be along and north of the
Ohio River with mesoscale models suggesting they will decrease in
coverage after 06Z as they move into east central KY. Updated the
pops to reflect this thinking. Otherwise, the forecast is in fairly
good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Friday...
...Chance for First Snow of the Season Increasing Friday Night...

Have several systems to deal with in this period. The first is a
shortwave, evident on water vapor over western Iowa, that will dive
into the Tennessee Valley tonight. This system looks to have enough
moisture associated with it to produce at least scattered light rain
showers mainly after midnight tonight.

Another upper disturbance, this one stronger, will drop from the
Great Lakes Friday afternoon and evening. A front will pass through
our region just ahead of this feature, ushering in much cooler air
behind gusty northwest winds. By Halloween late afternoon, expect
winds to gust to 25-35 mph. The center of the upper low is forecast
by model consensus to be over the eastern KY mountains by 06Z
Saturday. Isentropic analysis at 285 and 290K indicates a trowal
wrapping around this upper low bringing a good chance for banded
precipitation early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings would
indicate a lot of this precip could fall as snow. Forecast
temperatures would support it as well, but accumulations will depend
on how heavy the snowfall is. Ground temperatures are too warm to
keep this snow for very long, so if it falls slow enough it will
just affect visibilities.

Speaking of those ground temperatures, forecast lows will be around
freezing Saturday morning. Normally we would not issue a freeze
watch for forecast lows right down to around 32, as local policy is
to have temperatures to or under 30 for at least a couple of hours.
However, given this is the first widespread chance to reach
freezing, and in collaboration with neighboring offices, we will go
ahead and hoist a freeze watch for early Saturday morning and extend
add a second headline for the more solid freeze Sunday morning, read
long-term discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Sub-Freezing Temperatures Likely Sunday Morning...

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an abnormally deep/strong trough across the eastern CONUS,
with an upstream ridge across the central United States.  This
regime will deamplify through the period, making for a warming trend
through the period as the large trough breaks down.

The cold core of the upper-level trough will be pushing east of the
Ohio Valley by Saturday morning.  Therefore, any lingering light
snow showers (see short term section above) will be pushing east of
the I-75 corridor.  However, forecast soundings suggest low-level
clouds will hang around through much of the day across areas east of
I-65 on Saturday.  Given the surface cold-air advection coupled with
the lingering cloud cover, think temperatures will really struggle.
Have knocked them down a couple of degrees across the Northern
Bluegrass, as highs will likely struggle to make it out of the upper
30s and lower 40s.  Further west, some sunshine looks a bit more
likely, thus will forecast highs in the mid and upper 40s.  Either
way, Saturday is shaping up to be quite a raw fall day across the
Ohio Valley.

The coldest temperatures of the season thus far will be felt
Saturday night into Sunday morning, as a strong surface ridge
settles into the Ohio Valley.  Pretty high confidence exists for a
widespread freeze early Sunday morning, as temperatures dip into the
20s across most locations which should put an end to the growing
season.  Thus, have issued a Freeze Watch for Sunday morning (in
addition to Saturday morning).  The only potential bust in these
temperatures would be cloud cover lingering near the I-75 corridor,
but it appears these clouds will clear quickly enough to allow
temperatures to quickly fall towards morning.

A warmup will commence Sunday into early next week, as upper-level
ridging builds into the Ohio Valley.  Highs Sunday will climb back
into the 50s, with 60s becoming likely Monday into Tuesday.

The next storm system in the form of a slow-moving cold front will
arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday.  PWATs will climb to 1.25-1.5
inches, which will support some moderate pockets of rainfall.
Instability at this long time ranges continues to look meager, thus
will continue to leave thunder out of the forecast for now.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1250 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Combo of a mid-level disturbance and surface front will impact the
terminals overnight.  Mostly cloudy conditions are expected with
ceilings remain at VFR levels throughout the night.  Ceilings should
generally fall from around 8-10kft AGL to around 4kft AGL by
morning.  Some scattered rain showers will be possible across the
region, but visibilities should remain above VFR as well.

After frontal passage, winds will shift around the northwest and the
pressure gradient will tighten up.  Scattered showers will be mainly
possible across the northern part of the area (KSDF and KLEX) with
ceilings dropping down to MVFR levels during the afternoon.
Northwest winds will start off at 8-10kts and then increase to
15-18kt with gusts of 25-30kts being possible through the late
afternoon and evening hours.  Strong cold air advection will work in
during the evening hours.  This will allow precipitation to mix with
light snow during the evening (mainly after 01/00Z) at KSDF and KLEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 302349
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
749 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 748 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Scattered showers associated with the first shortwave approaching
the area remain just to the west and northwest of the forecast area
this evening. These showers will move in over the next couple of
hours. The best chance for showers will be along and north of the
Ohio River with mesoscale models suggesting they will decrease in
coverage after 06Z as they move into east central KY. Updated the
pops to reflect this thinking. Otherwise, the forecast is in fairly
good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Friday...
...Chance for First Snow of the Season Increasing Friday Night...

Have several systems to deal with in this period. The first is a
shortwave, evident on water vapor over western Iowa, that will dive
into the Tennessee Valley tonight. This system looks to have enough
moisture associated with it to produce at least scattered light rain
showers mainly after midnight tonight.

Another upper disturbance, this one stronger, will drop from the
Great Lakes Friday afternoon and evening. A front will pass through
our region just ahead of this feature, ushering in much cooler air
behind gusty northwest winds. By Halloween late afternoon, expect
winds to gust to 25-35 mph. The center of the upper low is forecast
by model consensus to be over the eastern KY mountains by 06Z
Saturday. Isentropic analysis at 285 and 290K indicates a trowal
wrapping around this upper low bringing a good chance for banded
precipitation early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings would
indicate a lot of this precip could fall as snow. Forecast
temperatures would support it as well, but accumulations will depend
on how heavy the snowfall is. Ground temperatures are too warm to
keep this snow for very long, so if it falls slow enough it will
just affect visibilities.

Speaking of those ground temperatures, forecast lows will be around
freezing Saturday morning. Normally we would not issue a freeze
watch for forecast lows right down to around 32, as local policy is
to have temperatures to or under 30 for at least a couple of hours.
However, given this is the first widespread chance to reach
freezing, and in collaboration with neighboring offices, we will go
ahead and hoist a freeze watch for early Saturday morning and extend
add a second headline for the more solid freeze Sunday morning, read
long-term discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Sub-Freezing Temperatures Likely Sunday Morning...

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an abnormally deep/strong trough across the eastern CONUS,
with an upstream ridge across the central United States.  This
regime will deamplify through the period, making for a warming trend
through the period as the large trough breaks down.

The cold core of the upper-level trough will be pushing east of the
Ohio Valley by Saturday morning.  Therefore, any lingering light
snow showers (see short term section above) will be pushing east of
the I-75 corridor.  However, forecast soundings suggest low-level
clouds will hang around through much of the day across areas east of
I-65 on Saturday.  Given the surface cold-air advection coupled with
the lingering cloud cover, think temperatures will really struggle.
Have knocked them down a couple of degrees across the Northern
Bluegrass, as highs will likely struggle to make it out of the upper
30s and lower 40s.  Further west, some sunshine looks a bit more
likely, thus will forecast highs in the mid and upper 40s.  Either
way, Saturday is shaping up to be quite a raw fall day across the
Ohio Valley.

The coldest temperatures of the season thus far will be felt
Saturday night into Sunday morning, as a strong surface ridge
settles into the Ohio Valley.  Pretty high confidence exists for a
widespread freeze early Sunday morning, as temperatures dip into the
20s across most locations which should put an end to the growing
season.  Thus, have issued a Freeze Watch for Sunday morning (in
addition to Saturday morning).  The only potential bust in these
temperatures would be cloud cover lingering near the I-75 corridor,
but it appears these clouds will clear quickly enough to allow
temperatures to quickly fall towards morning.

A warmup will commence Sunday into early next week, as upper-level
ridging builds into the Ohio Valley.  Highs Sunday will climb back
into the 50s, with 60s becoming likely Monday into Tuesday.

The next storm system in the form of a slow-moving cold front will
arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday.  PWATs will climb to 1.25-1.5
inches, which will support some moderate pockets of rainfall.
Instability at this long time ranges continues to look meager, thus
will continue to leave thunder out of the forecast for now.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

A couple of upper level disturbances along with a strong cold front
will pass through the region during this TAF period. For tonight
clouds will be on the increase as the first disturbance and cold
front approach. Mid level clouds will move in this evening with
bases lowering to 4-5 kft after midnight. Winds should be relatively
light overnight.

Winds will increase through the morning tomorrow out of the
northwest. As the surface pressure gradient tightens, they will
become quite gusty. Sustained winds of 12-15 knots with gusts up to
around 25 knots are expected tomorrow afternoon, continuing into the
evening. Scattered showers will move in early tomorrow morning with
a more solid line of showers accompanying the front later in the
morning into the afternoon hours. Clouds look to lower to high end
MVFR with this system tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 302302
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
702 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Friday...
...Chance for First Snow of the Season Increasing Friday Night...

Have several systems to deal with in this period. The first is a
shortwave, evident on water vapor over western Iowa, that will dive
into the Tennessee Valley tonight. This system looks to have enough
moisture associated with it to produce at least scattered light rain
showers mainly after midnight tonight.

Another upper disturbance, this one stronger, will drop from the
Great Lakes Friday afternoon and evening. A front will pass through
our region just ahead of this feature, ushering in much cooler air
behind gusty northwest winds. By Halloween late afternoon, expect
winds to gust to 25-35 mph. The center of the upper low is forecast
by model consensus to be over the eastern KY mountains by 06Z
Saturday. Isentropic analysis at 285 and 290K indicates a trowal
wrapping around this upper low bringing a good chance for banded
precipitation early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings would
indicate a lot of this precip could fall as snow. Forecast
temperatures would support it as well, but accumulations will depend
on how heavy the snowfall is. Ground temperatures are too warm to
keep this snow for very long, so if it falls slow enough it will
just affect visibilities.

Speaking of those ground temperatures, forecast lows will be around
freezing Saturday morning. Normally we would not issue a freeze
watch for forecast lows right down to around 32, as local policy is
to have temperatures to or under 30 for at least a couple of hours.
However, given this is the first widespread chance to reach
freezing, and in collaboration with neighboring offices, we will go
ahead and hoist a freeze watch for early Saturday morning and extend
add a second headline for the more solid freeze Sunday morning, read
long-term discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Sub-Freezing Temperatures Likely Sunday Morning...

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an abnormally deep/strong trough across the eastern CONUS,
with an upstream ridge across the central United States.  This
regime will deamplify through the period, making for a warming trend
through the period as the large trough breaks down.

The cold core of the upper-level trough will be pushing east of the
Ohio Valley by Saturday morning.  Therefore, any lingering light
snow showers (see short term section above) will be pushing east of
the I-75 corridor.  However, forecast soundings suggest low-level
clouds will hang around through much of the day across areas east of
I-65 on Saturday.  Given the surface cold-air advection coupled with
the lingering cloud cover, think temperatures will really struggle.
Have knocked them down a couple of degrees across the Northern
Bluegrass, as highs will likely struggle to make it out of the upper
30s and lower 40s.  Further west, some sunshine looks a bit more
likely, thus will forecast highs in the mid and upper 40s.  Either
way, Saturday is shaping up to be quite a raw fall day across the
Ohio Valley.

The coldest temperatures of the season thus far will be felt
Saturday night into Sunday morning, as a strong surface ridge
settles into the Ohio Valley.  Pretty high confidence exists for a
widespread freeze early Sunday morning, as temperatures dip into the
20s across most locations which should put an end to the growing
season.  Thus, have issued a Freeze Watch for Sunday morning (in
addition to Saturday morning).  The only potential bust in these
temperatures would be cloud cover lingering near the I-75 corridor,
but it appears these clouds will clear quickly enough to allow
temperatures to quickly fall towards morning.

A warmup will commence Sunday into early next week, as upper-level
ridging builds into the Ohio Valley.  Highs Sunday will climb back
into the 50s, with 60s becoming likely Monday into Tuesday.

The next storm system in the form of a slow-moving cold front will
arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday.  PWATs will climb to 1.25-1.5
inches, which will support some moderate pockets of rainfall.
Instability at this long time ranges continues to look meager, thus
will continue to leave thunder out of the forecast for now.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

A couple of upper level disturbances along with a strong cold front
will pass through the region during this TAF period. For tonight
clouds will be on the increase as the first disturbance and cold
front approach. Mid level clouds will move in this evening with
bases lowering to 4-5 kft after midnight. Winds should be relatively
light overnight.

Winds will increase through the morning tomorrow out of the
northwest. As the surface pressure gradient tightens, they will
become quite gusty. Sustained winds of 12-15 knots with gusts up to
around 25 knots are expected tomorrow afternoon, continuing into the
evening. Scattered showers will move in early tomorrow morning with
a more solid line of showers accompanying the front later in the
morning into the afternoon hours. Clouds look to lower to high end
MVFR with this system tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301849
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
249 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Friday...
...Chance for First Snow of the Season Increasing Friday Night...

Have several systems to deal with in this period. The first is a
shortwave, evident on water vapor over western Iowa, that will dive
into the Tennessee Valley tonight. This system looks to have enough
moisture associated with it to produce at least scattered light rain
showers mainly after midnight tonight.

Another upper disturbance, this one stronger, will drop from the
Great Lakes Friday afternoon and evening. A front will pass through
our region just ahead of this feature, ushering in much cooler air
behind gusty northwest winds. By Halloween late afternoon, expect
winds to gust to 25-35 mph. The center of the upper low is forecast
by model consensus to be over the eastern KY mountains by 06Z
Saturday. Isentropic analysis at 285 and 290K indicates a trowal
wrapping around this upper low bringing a good chance for banded
precipitation early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings would
indicate a lot of this precip could fall as snow. Forecast
temperatures would support it as well, but accumulations will depend
on how heavy the snowfall is. Ground temperatures are too warm to
keep this snow for very long, so if it falls slow enough it will
just affect visibilities.

Speaking of those ground temperatures, forecast lows will be around
freezing Saturday morning. Normally we would not issue a freeze
watch for forecast lows right down to around 32, as local policy is
to have temperatures to or under 30 for at least a couple of hours.
However, given this is the first widespread chance to reach
freezing, and in collaboration with neighboring offices, we will go
ahead and hoist a freeze watch for early Saturday morning and extend
add a second headline for the more solid freeze Sunday morning, read
long-term discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Sub-Freezing Temperatures Likely Sunday Morning...

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an abnormally deep/strong trough across the eastern CONUS,
with an upstream ridge across the central United States.  This
regime will deamplify through the period, making for a warming trend
through the period as the large trough breaks down.

The cold core of the upper-level trough will be pushing east of the
Ohio Valley by Saturday morning.  Therefore, any lingering light
snow showers (see short term section above) will be pushing east of
the I-75 corridor.  However, forecast soundings suggest low-level
clouds will hang around through much of the day across areas east of
I-65 on Saturday.  Given the surface cold-air advection coupled with
the lingering cloud cover, think temperatures will really struggle.
Have knocked them down a couple of degrees across the Northern
Bluegrass, as highs will likely struggle to make it out of the upper
30s and lower 40s.  Further west, some sunshine looks a bit more
likely, thus will forecast highs in the mid and upper 40s.  Either
way, Saturday is shaping up to be quite a raw fall day across the
Ohio Valley.

The coldest temperatures of the season thus far will be felt
Saturday night into Sunday morning, as a strong surface ridge
settles into the Ohio Valley.  Pretty high confidence exists for a
widespread freeze early Sunday morning, as temperatures dip into the
20s across most locations which should put an end to the growing
season.  Thus, have issued a Freeze Watch for Sunday morning (in
addition to Saturday morning).  The only potential bust in these
temperatures would be cloud cover lingering near the I-75 corridor,
but it appears these clouds will clear quickly enough to allow
temperatures to quickly fall towards morning.

A warmup will commence Sunday into early next week, as upper-level
ridging builds into the Ohio Valley.  Highs Sunday will climb back
into the 50s, with 60s becoming likely Monday into Tuesday.

The next storm system in the form of a slow-moving cold front will
arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday.  PWATs will climb to 1.25-1.5
inches, which will support some moderate pockets of rainfall.
Instability at this long time ranges continues to look meager, thus
will continue to leave thunder out of the forecast for now.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

A couple of disturbances will cross the region this TAF period. The
first will bring scattered showers early Friday morning. That chance
should increase by late morning along with lowering cigs. Late in
the period a second disturbance will bring gusty northwesterly
winds, with SDF gusting to 25-30 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     FREEZE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301716
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
116 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 850 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

A quick update to remove the early morning wording. Had a chilly
start to the day, with several places down to around freezing as
well as a few reports of frost. Rest of today`s forecast pretty much
on track with only a few minor tweaks.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Friday...

Other than some patchy frost this morning in valley and sheltered
locations, we`ll start the day out fairly quiet with clear skies and
calm to very light winds as sfc high pressure sits over the region.
Temps today look to be cooler than yesterday with limited mixing and
increasing cloud cover throughout the afternoon hours.  Look for
high temps to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s this afternoon.

A weak upper shortwave trough will arrive tonight bringing scattered
rain showers to the region mainly after midnight and into the
morning early morning hours Friday.  Most locations can expect to
see rainfall amounts up to a tenth of an inch from light rain
tonight.

For Friday, a cold front will drop into the Ohio Valley bringing
more forcing for continued rain showers through early to mid
afternoon.  A break in precip is expected after the cold front
passage during the late afternoon or early evening hours before a
potent upper low barrels southward into our region bringing yet more
light precip chances (see long term discussion for details on Friday
night precip).  We`ll see windy conditions on Friday afternoon as
the cold front passes through.  NW winds of 15 to 20 mph will gust
up to 30 mph especially after the front passes and we perhaps see
some breaks in the clouds behind the front mid to late Friday
afternoon.  Temps will be tricky for Friday as well.  Friday morning
we`ll start out in the low to mid 40s.  We`ll warm into the upper
40s and low 50s by mid to late morning.  The cold front should pass
through the region quickly during the early afternoon hours
resulting in falling temps through the 40s for the rest of Fri
afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...First Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Wintry Precip
Friday Night East and Sub-Freezing Temps Sunday Morning Areawide...

Friday Night to Saturday Morning...

Latest GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement showing an
deep upper low diving SSE across the eastern OH Valley Friday night.
The GFE 18z ensembles showed the trough aloft being 3 to 4 standard
deviations below normal which is significant. With this system will
come cold air advection and dynamic cooling aloft. The model-
indicated pattern suggests possible development of a winter-like
deformation band within a tight isotach (lines of constant wind
speed) gradient in the left exit region of a 300 mb jet streak
diving south over the lower OH Valley. In these types of patterns, a
definitive mesoscale band of wintry precipitation normally occurs
assuming temperatures within the moist layer and at the surface are
sufficiently cold. In this system, the models suggest all this to
occur, which would suggest a band of snow over the eastern half of
the forecast area, especially east central KY late Friday night.
Model soundings show moisture extending up to between 500 and 600
mb, and cold enough in the moist layer for ice crystal formation
which would stay as mostly snow as it fell to the ground.

If this verifies, then scattered rain showers during the day Friday
likely would diminish or end in the evening, with a band of some
snow developing late at night which would move quickly southeast and
end by Saturday morning with up to an inch or so of snow possible
mainly across the Bluegrass, and especially on grassy areas.

The latest GEM, however, tracks the low and associated wintry
precipitation farther east, mainly east of our forecast area. For
now, will keep precipitation chances in the chance category over
eastern areas until the track of the system and potential band
formation is better known. Nevertheless, will indicate possibility
of all snow vs. a rain-snow mix in our previous forecast for late
Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Temperatures Saturday Morning and Sunday Morning...

The coldest air of the fall season will descend upon us over the
weekend. Temperatures Saturday morning will depend on cloud cover,
which should be widespread over the eastern half of forecast area.
Should see some clearing over western parts of central KY which will
allow readings to fall, although frost is less likely due to winds
remaining gusty from the northwest. Morning lows Saturday morning
will flirt with 32 F over many areas, but a widespread freeze is not
expected. High temperatures Saturday afternoon should remain in the
40s across the forecast area, with only lower 40s east where low
clouds will linger much of the day.

By Sunday morning, high pressure will be anchored over the OH Valley
with a mostly clear sky (although some clouds could linger over our
far southeast counties) and light wind. This will be a good setup
for temperatures to fall below freezing (mid 20s to around 30) over
much of southern IN and central KY, which would likely end what`s
left of the growing season in many locations. A freeze headline may
well be needed closer to that time, but will go with a special
weather statement for now to highlight the cold (plus the
possibility of some snow east late Friday night).

Sunday Through Wednesday...

The high pressure over us Sunday morning will move east Sunday and
Monday allowing a warming trend, especially by Monday afternoon when
highs should range from around 60 east to the 60s west across
central KY and southern IN. Expect similar temperatures Tuesday. Dry
weather will prevail Sunday through much of Tuesday, but a few
showers may move into western parts of south-central IN by late
Tuesday. The next weather system will then bring a band of numerous
rain showers across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

A couple of disturbances will cross the region this TAF period. The
first will bring scattered showers early Friday morning. That chance
should increase by late morning along with lowering cigs. Late in
the period a second disturbance will bring gusty northwesterly
winds, with SDF gusting to 25-30 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301255
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
855 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 850 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

A quick update to remove the early morning wording. Had a chilly
start to the day, with several places down to around freezing as
well as a few reports of frost. Rest of today`s forecast pretty much
on track with only a few minor tweaks.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Friday...

Other than some patchy frost this morning in valley and sheltered
locations, we`ll start the day out fairly quiet with clear skies and
calm to very light winds as sfc high pressure sits over the region.
Temps today look to be cooler than yesterday with limited mixing and
increasing cloud cover throughout the afternoon hours.  Look for
high temps to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s this afternoon.

A weak upper shortwave trough will arrive tonight bringing scattered
rain showers to the region mainly after midnight and into the
morning early morning hours Friday.  Most locations can expect to
see rainfall amounts up to a tenth of an inch from light rain
tonight.

For Friday, a cold front will drop into the Ohio Valley bringing
more forcing for continued rain showers through early to mid
afternoon.  A break in precip is expected after the cold front
passage during the late afternoon or early evening hours before a
potent upper low barrels southward into our region bringing yet more
light precip chances (see long term discussion for details on Friday
night precip).  We`ll see windy conditions on Friday afternoon as
the cold front passes through.  NW winds of 15 to 20 mph will gust
up to 30 mph especially after the front passes and we perhaps see
some breaks in the clouds behind the front mid to late Friday
afternoon.  Temps will be tricky for Friday as well.  Friday morning
we`ll start out in the low to mid 40s.  We`ll warm into the upper
40s and low 50s by mid to late morning.  The cold front should pass
through the region quickly during the early afternoon hours
resulting in falling temps through the 40s for the rest of Fri
afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...First Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Wintry Precip
Friday Night East and Sub-Freezing Temps Sunday Morning Areawide...

Friday Night to Saturday Morning...

Latest GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement showing an
deep upper low diving SSE across the eastern OH Valley Friday night.
The GFE 18z ensembles showed the trough aloft being 3 to 4 standard
deviations below normal which is significant. With this system will
come cold air advection and dynamic cooling aloft. The model-
indicated pattern suggests possible development of a winter-like
deformation band within a tight isotach (lines of constant wind
speed) gradient in the left exit region of a 300 mb jet streak
diving south over the lower OH Valley. In these types of patterns, a
definitive mesoscale band of wintry precipitation normally occurs
assuming temperatures within the moist layer and at the surface are
sufficiently cold. In this system, the models suggest all this to
occur, which would suggest a band of snow over the eastern half of
the forecast area, especially east central KY late Friday night.
Model soundings show moisture extending up to between 500 and 600
mb, and cold enough in the moist layer for ice crystal formation
which would stay as mostly snow as it fell to the ground.

If this verifies, then scattered rain showers during the day Friday
likely would diminish or end in the evening, with a band of some
snow developing late at night which would move quickly southeast and
end by Saturday morning with up to an inch or so of snow possible
mainly across the Bluegrass, and especially on grassy areas.

The latest GEM, however, tracks the low and associated wintry
precipitation farther east, mainly east of our forecast area. For
now, will keep precipitation chances in the chance category over
eastern areas until the track of the system and potential band
formation is better known. Nevertheless, will indicate possibility
of all snow vs. a rain-snow mix in our previous forecast for late
Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Temperatures Saturday Morning and Sunday Morning...

The coldest air of the fall season will descend upon us over the
weekend. Temperatures Saturday morning will depend on cloud cover,
which should be widespread over the eastern half of forecast area.
Should see some clearing over western parts of central KY which will
allow readings to fall, although frost is less likely due to winds
remaining gusty from the northwest. Morning lows Saturday morning
will flirt with 32 F over many areas, but a widespread freeze is not
expected. High temperatures Saturday afternoon should remain in the
40s across the forecast area, with only lower 40s east where low
clouds will linger much of the day.

By Sunday morning, high pressure will be anchored over the OH Valley
with a mostly clear sky (although some clouds could linger over our
far southeast counties) and light wind. This will be a good setup
for temperatures to fall below freezing (mid 20s to around 30) over
much of southern IN and central KY, which would likely end what`s
left of the growing season in many locations. A freeze headline may
well be needed closer to that time, but will go with a special
weather statement for now to highlight the cold (plus the
possibility of some snow east late Friday night).

Sunday Through Wednesday...

The high pressure over us Sunday morning will move east Sunday and
Monday allowing a warming trend, especially by Monday afternoon when
highs should range from around 60 east to the 60s west across
central KY and southern IN. Expect similar temperatures Tuesday. Dry
weather will prevail Sunday through much of Tuesday, but a few
showers may move into western parts of south-central IN by late
Tuesday. The next weather system will then bring a band of numerous
rain showers across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for the most part
as sfc high pressure remains in control of the region.  The only
exception might be some light br at BWG toward sunrise resulting in
a brief MVFR restriction.  Upper level clouds will be on the
increase late in the day as an upper level trough approaches the
region.  The upper level trough will bring rain showers and mid
level cigs tomorrow morning.  Winds should remain generally light
and variable or even calm at times throughout this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
651 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Friday...

Other than some patchy frost this morning in valley and sheltered
locations, we`ll start the day out fairly quiet with clear skies and
calm to very light winds as sfc high pressure sits over the region.
Temps today look to be cooler than yesterday with limited mixing and
increasing cloud cover throughout the afternoon hours.  Look for
high temps to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s this afternoon.

A weak upper shortwave trough will arrive tonight bringing scattered
rain showers to the region mainly after midnight and into the
morning early morning hours Friday.  Most locations can expect to
see rainfall amounts up to a tenth of an inch from light rain
tonight.

For Friday, a cold front will drop into the Ohio Valley bringing
more forcing for continued rain showers through early to mid
afternoon.  A break in precip is expected after the cold front
passage during the late afternoon or early evening hours before a
potent upper low barrels southward into our region bringing yet more
light precip chances (see long term discussion for details on Friday
night precip).  We`ll see windy conditions on Friday afternoon as
the cold front passes through.  NW winds of 15 to 20 mph will gust
up to 30 mph especially after the front passes and we perhaps see
some breaks in the clouds behind the front mid to late Friday
afternoon.  Temps will be tricky for Friday as well.  Friday morning
we`ll start out in the low to mid 40s.  We`ll warm into the upper
40s and low 50s by mid to late morning.  The cold front should pass
through the region quickly during the early afternoon hours
resulting in falling temps through the 40s for the rest of Fri
afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...First Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Wintry Precip
Friday Night East and Sub-Freezing Temps Sunday Morning Areawide...

Friday Night to Saturday Morning...

Latest GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement showing an
deep upper low diving SSE across the eastern OH Valley Friday night.
The GFE 18z ensembles showed the trough aloft being 3 to 4 standard
deviations below normal which is significant. With this system will
come cold air advection and dynamic cooling aloft. The model-
indicated pattern suggests possible development of a winter-like
deformation band within a tight isotach (lines of constant wind
speed) gradient in the left exit region of a 300 mb jet streak
diving south over the lower OH Valley. In these types of patterns, a
definitive mesoscale band of wintry precipitation normally occurs
assuming temperatures within the moist layer and at the surface are
sufficiently cold. In this system, the models suggest all this to
occur, which would suggest a band of snow over the eastern half of
the forecast area, especially east central KY late Friday night.
Model soundings show moisture extending up to between 500 and 600
mb, and cold enough in the moist layer for ice crystal formation
which would stay as mostly snow as it fell to the ground.

If this verifies, then scattered rain showers during the day Friday
likely would diminish or end in the evening, with a band of some
snow developing late at night which would move quickly southeast and
end by Saturday morning with up to an inch or so of snow possible
mainly across the Bluegrass, and especially on grassy areas.

The latest GEM, however, tracks the low and associated wintry
precipitation farther east, mainly east of our forecast area. For
now, will keep precipitation chances in the chance category over
eastern areas until the track of the system and potential band
formation is better known. Nevertheless, will indicate possibility
of all snow vs. a rain-snow mix in our previous forecast for late
Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Temperatures Saturday Morning and Sunday Morning...

The coldest air of the fall season will descend upon us over the
weekend. Temperatures Saturday morning will depend on cloud cover,
which should be widespread over the eastern half of forecast area.
Should see some clearing over western parts of central KY which will
allow readings to fall, although frost is less likely due to winds
remaining gusty from the northwest. Morning lows Saturday morning
will flirt with 32 F over many areas, but a widespread freeze is not
expected. High temperatures Saturday afternoon should remain in the
40s across the forecast area, with only lower 40s east where low
clouds will linger much of the day.

By Sunday morning, high pressure will be anchored over the OH Valley
with a mostly clear sky (although some clouds could linger over our
far southeast counties) and light wind. This will be a good setup
for temperatures to fall below freezing (mid 20s to around 30) over
much of southern IN and central KY, which would likely end what`s
left of the growing season in many locations. A freeze headline may
well be needed closer to that time, but will go with a special
weather statement for now to highlight the cold (plus the
possibility of some snow east late Friday night).

Sunday Through Wednesday...

The high pressure over us Sunday morning will move east Sunday and
Monday allowing a warming trend, especially by Monday afternoon when
highs should range from around 60 east to the 60s west across
central KY and southern IN. Expect similar temperatures Tuesday. Dry
weather will prevail Sunday through much of Tuesday, but a few
showers may move into western parts of south-central IN by late
Tuesday. The next weather system will then bring a band of numerous
rain showers across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for the most part
as sfc high pressure remains in control of the region.  The only
exception might be some light br at BWG toward sunrise resulting in
a brief MVFR restriction.  Upper level clouds will be on the
increase late in the day as an upper level trough approaches the
region.  The upper level trough will bring rain showers and mid
level cigs tomorrow morning.  Winds should remain generally light
and variable or even calm at times throughout this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
651 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Friday...

Other than some patchy frost this morning in valley and sheltered
locations, we`ll start the day out fairly quiet with clear skies and
calm to very light winds as sfc high pressure sits over the region.
Temps today look to be cooler than yesterday with limited mixing and
increasing cloud cover throughout the afternoon hours.  Look for
high temps to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s this afternoon.

A weak upper shortwave trough will arrive tonight bringing scattered
rain showers to the region mainly after midnight and into the
morning early morning hours Friday.  Most locations can expect to
see rainfall amounts up to a tenth of an inch from light rain
tonight.

For Friday, a cold front will drop into the Ohio Valley bringing
more forcing for continued rain showers through early to mid
afternoon.  A break in precip is expected after the cold front
passage during the late afternoon or early evening hours before a
potent upper low barrels southward into our region bringing yet more
light precip chances (see long term discussion for details on Friday
night precip).  We`ll see windy conditions on Friday afternoon as
the cold front passes through.  NW winds of 15 to 20 mph will gust
up to 30 mph especially after the front passes and we perhaps see
some breaks in the clouds behind the front mid to late Friday
afternoon.  Temps will be tricky for Friday as well.  Friday morning
we`ll start out in the low to mid 40s.  We`ll warm into the upper
40s and low 50s by mid to late morning.  The cold front should pass
through the region quickly during the early afternoon hours
resulting in falling temps through the 40s for the rest of Fri
afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...First Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Wintry Precip
Friday Night East and Sub-Freezing Temps Sunday Morning Areawide...

Friday Night to Saturday Morning...

Latest GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement showing an
deep upper low diving SSE across the eastern OH Valley Friday night.
The GFE 18z ensembles showed the trough aloft being 3 to 4 standard
deviations below normal which is significant. With this system will
come cold air advection and dynamic cooling aloft. The model-
indicated pattern suggests possible development of a winter-like
deformation band within a tight isotach (lines of constant wind
speed) gradient in the left exit region of a 300 mb jet streak
diving south over the lower OH Valley. In these types of patterns, a
definitive mesoscale band of wintry precipitation normally occurs
assuming temperatures within the moist layer and at the surface are
sufficiently cold. In this system, the models suggest all this to
occur, which would suggest a band of snow over the eastern half of
the forecast area, especially east central KY late Friday night.
Model soundings show moisture extending up to between 500 and 600
mb, and cold enough in the moist layer for ice crystal formation
which would stay as mostly snow as it fell to the ground.

If this verifies, then scattered rain showers during the day Friday
likely would diminish or end in the evening, with a band of some
snow developing late at night which would move quickly southeast and
end by Saturday morning with up to an inch or so of snow possible
mainly across the Bluegrass, and especially on grassy areas.

The latest GEM, however, tracks the low and associated wintry
precipitation farther east, mainly east of our forecast area. For
now, will keep precipitation chances in the chance category over
eastern areas until the track of the system and potential band
formation is better known. Nevertheless, will indicate possibility
of all snow vs. a rain-snow mix in our previous forecast for late
Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Temperatures Saturday Morning and Sunday Morning...

The coldest air of the fall season will descend upon us over the
weekend. Temperatures Saturday morning will depend on cloud cover,
which should be widespread over the eastern half of forecast area.
Should see some clearing over western parts of central KY which will
allow readings to fall, although frost is less likely due to winds
remaining gusty from the northwest. Morning lows Saturday morning
will flirt with 32 F over many areas, but a widespread freeze is not
expected. High temperatures Saturday afternoon should remain in the
40s across the forecast area, with only lower 40s east where low
clouds will linger much of the day.

By Sunday morning, high pressure will be anchored over the OH Valley
with a mostly clear sky (although some clouds could linger over our
far southeast counties) and light wind. This will be a good setup
for temperatures to fall below freezing (mid 20s to around 30) over
much of southern IN and central KY, which would likely end what`s
left of the growing season in many locations. A freeze headline may
well be needed closer to that time, but will go with a special
weather statement for now to highlight the cold (plus the
possibility of some snow east late Friday night).

Sunday Through Wednesday...

The high pressure over us Sunday morning will move east Sunday and
Monday allowing a warming trend, especially by Monday afternoon when
highs should range from around 60 east to the 60s west across
central KY and southern IN. Expect similar temperatures Tuesday. Dry
weather will prevail Sunday through much of Tuesday, but a few
showers may move into western parts of south-central IN by late
Tuesday. The next weather system will then bring a band of numerous
rain showers across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for the most part
as sfc high pressure remains in control of the region.  The only
exception might be some light br at BWG toward sunrise resulting in
a brief MVFR restriction.  Upper level clouds will be on the
increase late in the day as an upper level trough approaches the
region.  The upper level trough will bring rain showers and mid
level cigs tomorrow morning.  Winds should remain generally light
and variable or even calm at times throughout this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300716
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Windy Conditions and Falling Temperatures Expected Friday...

Other than some patchy frost this morning in valley and sheltered
locations, we`ll start the day out fairly quiet with clear skies and
calm to very light winds as sfc high pressure sits over the region.
Temps today look to be cooler than yesterday with limited mixing and
increasing cloud cover throughout the afternoon hours.  Look for
high temps to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s this afternoon.

A weak upper shortwave trough will arrive tonight bringing scattered
rain showers to the region mainly after midnight and into the
morning early morning hours Friday.  Most locations can expect to
see rainfall amounts up to a tenth of an inch from light rain
tonight.

For Friday, a cold front will drop into the Ohio Valley bringing
more forcing for continued rain showers through early to mid
afternoon.  A break in precip is expected after the cold front
passage during the late afternoon or early evening hours before a
potent upper low barrels southward into our region bringing yet more
light precip chances (see long term discussion for details on Friday
night precip).  We`ll see windy conditions on Friday afternoon as
the cold front passes through.  NW winds of 15 to 20 mph will gust
up to 30 mph especially after the front passes and we perhaps see
some breaks in the clouds behind the front mid to late Friday
afternoon.  Temps will be tricky for Friday as well.  Friday morning
we`ll start out in the low to mid 40s.  We`ll warm into the upper
40s and low 50s by mid to late morning.  The cold front should pass
through the region quickly during the early afternoon hours
resulting in falling temps through the 40s for the rest of Fri
afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...First Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Wintry Precip
Friday Night East and Sub-Freezing Temps Sunday Morning Areawide...

Friday Night to Saturday Morning...

Latest GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement showing an
deep upper low diving SSE across the eastern OH Valley Friday night.
The GFE 18z ensembles showed the trough aloft being 3 to 4 standard
deviations below normal which is significant. With this system will
come cold air advection and dynamic cooling aloft. The model-
indicated pattern suggests possible development of a winter-like
deformation band within a tight isotach (lines of constant wind
speed) gradient in the left exit region of a 300 mb jet streak
diving south over the lower OH Valley. In these types of patterns, a
definitive mesoscale band of wintry precipitation normally occurs
assuming temperatures within the moist layer and at the surface are
sufficiently cold. In this system, the models suggest all this to
occur, which would suggest a band of snow over the eastern half of
the forecast area, especially east central KY late Friday night.
Model soundings show moisture extending up to between 500 and 600
mb, and cold enough in the moist layer for ice crystal formation
which would stay as mostly snow as it fell to the ground.

If this verifies, then scattered rain showers during the day Friday
likely would diminish or end in the evening, with a band of some
snow developing late at night which would move quickly southeast and
end by Saturday morning with up to an inch or so of snow possible
mainly across the Bluegrass, and especially on grassy areas.

The latest GEM, however, tracks the low and associated wintry
precipitation farther east, mainly east of our forecast area. For
now, will keep precipitation chances in the chance category over
eastern areas until the track of the system and potential band
formation is better known. Nevertheless, will indicate possibility
of all snow vs. a rain-snow mix in our previous forecast for late
Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Temperatures Saturday Morning and Sunday Morning...

The coldest air of the fall season will descend upon us over the
weekend. Temperatures Saturday morning will depend on cloud cover,
which should be widespread over the eastern half of forecast area.
Should see some clearing over western parts of central KY which will
allow readings to fall, although frost is less likely due to winds
remaining gusty from the northwest. Morning lows Saturday morning
will flirt with 32 F over many areas, but a widespread freeze is not
expected. High temperatures Saturday afternoon should remain in the
40s across the forecast area, with only lower 40s east where low
clouds will linger much of the day.

By Sunday morning, high pressure will be anchored over the OH Valley
with a mostly clear sky (although some clouds could linger over our
far southeast counties) and light wind. This will be a good setup
for temperatures to fall below freezing (mid 20s to around 30) over
much of southern IN and central KY, which would likely end what`s
left of the growing season in many locations. A freeze headline may
well be needed closer to that time, but will go with a special
weather statement for now to highlight the cold (plus the
possibility of some snow east late Friday night).

Sunday Through Wednesday...

The high pressure over us Sunday morning will move east Sunday and
Monday allowing a warming trend, especially by Monday afternoon when
highs should range from around 60 east to the 60s west across
central KY and southern IN. Expect similar temperatures Tuesday. Dry
weather will prevail Sunday through much of Tuesday, but a few
showers may move into western parts of south-central IN by late
Tuesday. The next weather system will then bring a band of numerous
rain showers across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for the most part
as sfc high pressure remains in control of the region.  The only
exception might be some light br at BWG/LEX toward sunrise with BWG
the more likely TAF site to see a brief MVFR restriction in br.
Upper level clouds will be on the increase late in the day as an
upper level trough approaches the region.  Winds should remain
generally light and variable or even calm at times throughout the
TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300515
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
115 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Winds are gradually slacking off as high pressure builds in from the
mid-Mississippi Valley. Skies have cleared, and the clouds over
Indiana are too shallow to make any headway beyond our northernmost
counties. Temps are dropping fairly well in line with the current
forecast, and should be on track for upper 30s in most locations.
Patchy frost is still in play, especially in valleys and sheltered
locations where the wind goes calm the earliest. However, still not
confident that there will be enough coverage to warrant an advisory,
so will forge ahead without a headline.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a general trough across
much of the central and eastern CONUS, with an upstream ridge
located across the western seaboard.  This regime will substantially
amplify through the short term period, as a deep trough begins to
build into the Ohio Valley by tomorrow night.  This pattern will
make for declining temperatures along with increasing chances of
precipitation by the end of the short term period into the long term
section below.

Despite slightly cooler temperatures than we`ve seen the past few
days, this afternoon has turned rather pleasant as temperatures have
climbed into the upper 50s and 60s under mostly sunny skies.  Have
continued to watch clouds to the north attempt to push into the
region, but the moisture with these clouds is shallow.  Therefore,
our relatively deep mixing today will likely continue to mix out
this deck as it tries to push in from the north.  Have upped clouds
a bit for this evening, but still think we will see only partly
cloudy skies at worst.

Otherwise, the main story for tonight will be cool temperatures and
the potential for frost formation.  Surface ridging will slide into
the Ohio Valley towards Thursday morning, resulting in winds going
calm. Given the expected clear skies, it will be rather favorable
conditions for radiational cooling.  Therefore, have gone on the
lower end of guidance, which puts lows in the mid and upper 30s.
These temperatures will likely result in some patchy frost
formation, especially in the more sheltered locations.  Was on the
fence on whether or not to issue a Frost Advisory, but in
coordination with neighboring offices, it was determined that the
frost would not be widespread enough to warrant an advisory at this
time.  The evening shift will continue to monitor the latest data
coming in and adjust the forecast as necessary.

Thursday will be another pleasant late October day, as quite a bit
of sunshine rules for at least the first part of the day.  However,
by the late afternoon into the evening hours, clouds will begin to
increase ahead of a quick-hitting shortwave diving through the mean
trough aloft.  Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50s and lower
60s.

The precipitation associated with the incoming shortwave trough and
synoptic forcing will mostly hold off until after 03Z Friday.
Forecast soundings show pretty deep moisture up to around 600mb with
this system, and cross-sections show good ascent within the
surface-600mb layer.  Therefore, have upped pops substantially (now
in 40-60% range) for late tomorrow night into Friday morning as this
forcing coupled with more-than-adequate moisture should lead to good
coverage of some light showers.  With the increasing cloud cover and
precip, overnight lows will be warmer than tonight, with readings
expected in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend. Wintry Precipitation and
Sub-Freezing Temperatures on the Menu...

Friday - Saturday Morning...

Several issues to talk about for the long term period of this
forecast. Will begin Friday with coverage of showers increasing from
NW to SE across the CWA as the left exit region of a 120 knot upper
impulse dives into the Ohio Valley. The strength of this impulse
coupled with the depth of moisture above 700 mb has increased
confidence in precipitation enough to warrant mention of scattered
to numerous coverage, generally in the 40-60% range east of I-65.
Wouldn`t be surprised if coverage needs to be increased more as this
will be a low QPF/higher coverage setup. Will also have to watch for
the potential for some thunder in our NE as low and mid level lapse
rates quickly steepen Friday afternoon and yield a somewhat unstable
thermal profile. One thermal profile suggested by the NAM would even
support small hail/graupel due to the weak instability and very low
freezing levels (this could be mistaken for sleet given the imminent
cold surge behind it).

Temperatures are expected to find their way to right around the 50
degree mark by midday Friday, before strong cold front associated
with the upper impulse swings through and temperatures begin to fall
late Friday afternoon/evening. Time heights show vertical theta
surfaces, suggesting that NW winds will become quite gusty behind the
frontal passage, so can`t rule out some gusts up between 25-35 mph.

Cold air continues crashing after sundown with steep low and mid
level lapse rates. Thermal profiles begin to support the potential
for snow to mix in with rain, despite surface temperatures still
above freezing before midnight. Saturation up to 700 mb gets you
very near the -7 to -10C threshold, so ice crystals will be marginal
for pure snow once surface temps drop enough. As cold air continues
to crash in toward dawn, it can`t be ruled out that some of our
eastern counties might change over to all snow or snow grains. We
will start losing deeper moisture by this time so again it will be a
race for the cold air to catch up to the moisture. Overall, do think
we will see some wintry precipitation Friday evening and overnight,
however don`t really expect much in the way of impacts as surfaces
and surface temperatures will be above freezing for much of it. Will
have to continue to monitor however as the somewhat convective
nature of these showers could be quite intense at times. Best
coverage of any wintery precipitation should be along and east of
I-65, especially toward the Bluegrass.

Will hold onto a few lingering wintery showers in our far east until
around dawn on Saturday, before surface high starts to take over.
There has been a shift in model data toward colder temps by Saturday
morning, with many suggesting sub-freezing by then. Will hold off on
going just that cold yet as NW cold advective component will still
be quite steady and turbulent mixing may keep things a bit milder
(relatively speaking!). Will go with around freezing.

Saturday - Sunday Morning...

We try and dry out on Saturday with surface high pressure slowly
building in. Slower trend may end up keeping showery activity and
low cloud lingering in our east a bit longer than anticipated. Either
way, temps aren`t getting out of the 40s for highs, some in our NE
may barely get into the low 40s.

The surface high centers itself over our area by early Sunday
morning setting the stage for our coldest air of the season and lows
likely in the upper 20s. Watch for Freeze headlines coming in future
forecasts should current data hold.

Sunday - Wednesday...

A classic warming pattern takes hold the rest of Sunday into Monday
night as upper ridging takes over and we get on the back side of
surface high pressure. The resultant rise in heights/thicknesses
combined with southerly flow and near full sun will allow temps to
rise into the upper 40s and low 50s Sunday, finding their way to the
56-61 range by Monday. Lows will also recover from the 30s on Sunday
night to the 40s on Monday night.

The next precipitation chances come Tuesday into Wednesday as a
frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary, parallel to the
southwesterly upper flow. This SW flow through a deep layer will
advect plenty of moisture along the boundary and could set the stage
for more widespread light rain. Will continue mention of solid
chance for rain from Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for the most part
as sfc high pressure remains in control of the region.  The only
exception might be some light br at BWG/LEX toward sunrise with BWG
the more likely TAF site to see a brief MVFR restriction in br.
Upper level clouds will be on the increase late in the day as an
upper level trough approaches the region.  Winds should remain
generally light and variable or even calm at times throughout the
TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300133
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
933 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Winds are gradually slacking off as high pressure builds in from the
mid-Mississippi Valley. Skies have cleared, and the clouds over
Indiana are too shallow to make any headway beyond our northernmost
counties. Temps are dropping fairly well in line with the current
forecast, and should be on track for upper 30s in most locations.
Patchy frost is still in play, especially in valleys and sheltered
locations where the wind goes calm the earliest. However, still not
confident that there will be enough coverage to warrant an advisory,
so will forge ahead without a headline.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a general trough across
much of the central and eastern CONUS, with an upstream ridge
located across the western seaboard.  This regime will substantially
amplify through the short term period, as a deep trough begins to
build into the Ohio Valley by tomorrow night.  This pattern will
make for declining temperatures along with increasing chances of
precipitation by the end of the short term period into the long term
section below.

Despite slightly cooler temperatures than we`ve seen the past few
days, this afternoon has turned rather pleasant as temperatures have
climbed into the upper 50s and 60s under mostly sunny skies.  Have
continued to watch clouds to the north attempt to push into the
region, but the moisture with these clouds is shallow.  Therefore,
our relatively deep mixing today will likely continue to mix out
this deck as it tries to push in from the north.  Have upped clouds
a bit for this evening, but still think we will see only partly
cloudy skies at worst.

Otherwise, the main story for tonight will be cool temperatures and
the potential for frost formation.  Surface ridging will slide into
the Ohio Valley towards Thursday morning, resulting in winds going
calm. Given the expected clear skies, it will be rather favorable
conditions for radiational cooling.  Therefore, have gone on the
lower end of guidance, which puts lows in the mid and upper 30s.
These temperatures will likely result in some patchy frost
formation, especially in the more sheltered locations.  Was on the
fence on whether or not to issue a Frost Advisory, but in
coordination with neighboring offices, it was determined that the
frost would not be widespread enough to warrant an advisory at this
time.  The evening shift will continue to monitor the latest data
coming in and adjust the forecast as necessary.

Thursday will be another pleasant late October day, as quite a bit
of sunshine rules for at least the first part of the day.  However,
by the late afternoon into the evening hours, clouds will begin to
increase ahead of a quick-hitting shortwave diving through the mean
trough aloft.  Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50s and lower
60s.

The precipitation associated with the incoming shortwave trough and
synoptic forcing will mostly hold off until after 03Z Friday.
Forecast soundings show pretty deep moisture up to around 600mb with
this system, and cross-sections show good ascent within the
surface-600mb layer.  Therefore, have upped pops substantially (now
in 40-60% range) for late tomorrow night into Friday morning as this
forcing coupled with more-than-adequate moisture should lead to good
coverage of some light showers.  With the increasing cloud cover and
precip, overnight lows will be warmer than tonight, with readings
expected in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend. Wintry Precipitation and
Sub-Freezing Temperatures on the Menu...

Friday - Saturday Morning...

Several issues to talk about for the long term period of this
forecast. Will begin Friday with coverage of showers increasing from
NW to SE across the CWA as the left exit region of a 120 knot upper
impulse dives into the Ohio Valley. The strength of this impulse
coupled with the depth of moisture above 700 mb has increased
confidence in precipitation enough to warrant mention of scattered
to numerous coverage, generally in the 40-60% range east of I-65.
Wouldn`t be surprised if coverage needs to be increased more as this
will be a low QPF/higher coverage setup. Will also have to watch for
the potential for some thunder in our NE as low and mid level lapse
rates quickly steepen Friday afternoon and yield a somewhat unstable
thermal profile. One thermal profile suggested by the NAM would even
support small hail/graupel due to the weak instability and very low
freezing levels (this could be mistaken for sleet given the imminent
cold surge behind it).

Temperatures are expected to find their way to right around the 50
degree mark by midday Friday, before strong cold front associated
with the upper impulse swings through and temperatures begin to fall
late Friday afternoon/evening. Time heights show vertical theta
surfaces, suggesting that NW winds will become quite gusty behind the
frontal passage, so can`t rule out some gusts up between 25-35 mph.

Cold air continues crashing after sundown with steep low and mid
level lapse rates. Thermal profiles begin to support the potential
for snow to mix in with rain, despite surface temperatures still
above freezing before midnight. Saturation up to 700 mb gets you
very near the -7 to -10C threshold, so ice crystals will be marginal
for pure snow once surface temps drop enough. As cold air continues
to crash in toward dawn, it can`t be ruled out that some of our
eastern counties might change over to all snow or snow grains. We
will start losing deeper moisture by this time so again it will be a
race for the cold air to catch up to the moisture. Overall, do think
we will see some wintry precipitation Friday evening and overnight,
however don`t really expect much in the way of impacts as surfaces
and surface temperatures will be above freezing for much of it. Will
have to continue to monitor however as the somewhat convective
nature of these showers could be quite intense at times. Best
coverage of any wintery precipitation should be along and east of
I-65, especially toward the Bluegrass.

Will hold onto a few lingering wintery showers in our far east until
around dawn on Saturday, before surface high starts to take over.
There has been a shift in model data toward colder temps by Saturday
morning, with many suggesting sub-freezing by then. Will hold off on
going just that cold yet as NW cold advective component will still
be quite steady and turbulent mixing may keep things a bit milder
(relatively speaking!). Will go with around freezing.

Saturday - Sunday Morning...

We try and dry out on Saturday with surface high pressure slowly
building in. Slower trend may end up keeping showery activity and
low cloud lingering in our east a bit longer than anticipated. Either
way, temps aren`t getting out of the 40s for highs, some in our NE
may barely get into the low 40s.

The surface high centers itself over our area by early Sunday
morning setting the stage for our coldest air of the season and lows
likely in the upper 20s. Watch for Freeze headlines coming in future
forecasts should current data hold.

Sunday - Wednesday...

A classic warming pattern takes hold the rest of Sunday into Monday
night as upper ridging takes over and we get on the back side of
surface high pressure. The resultant rise in heights/thicknesses
combined with southerly flow and near full sun will allow temps to
rise into the upper 40s and low 50s Sunday, finding their way to the
56-61 range by Monday. Lows will also recover from the 30s on Sunday
night to the 40s on Monday night.

The next precipitation chances come Tuesday into Wednesday as a
frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary, parallel to the
southwesterly upper flow. This SW flow through a deep layer will
advect plenty of moisture along the boundary and could set the stage
for more widespread light rain. Will continue mention of solid
chance for rain from Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Prevailing VFR conditions will continue for the valid TAF period.
This afternoon`s wind gusts are already starting to lay down with
the loss of heating, so may even be able to initialize with wind
speeds 6 kt or less. Light and variable winds overnight may open the
door for fog formation around daybreak at BWG and LEX. Even the most
pessimistic model guidance suggests dewpoint depressions of at least
3-4 degrees, so not intending to hit it very hard. Will continue to
mention 6SM visibility as a heads-up at both BWG and LEX, although
the former has the better chance of actually going MVFR. Light winds
and increasing cirrus on Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292248
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a general trough across
much of the central and eastern CONUS, with an upstream ridge
located across the western seaboard.  This regime will substantially
amplify through the short term period, as a deep trough begins to
build into the Ohio Valley by tomorrow night.  This pattern will
make for declining temperatures along with increasing chances of
precipitation by the end of the short term period into the long term
section below.

Despite slightly cooler temperatures than we`ve seen the past few
days, this afternoon has turned rather pleasant as temperatures have
climbed into the upper 50s and 60s under mostly sunny skies.  Have
continued to watch clouds to the north attempt to push into the
region, but the moisture with these clouds is shallow.  Therefore,
our relatively deep mixing today will likely continue to mix out
this deck as it tries to push in from the north.  Have upped clouds
a bit for this evening, but still think we will see only partly
cloudy skies at worst.

Otherwise, the main story for tonight will be cool temperatures and
the potential for frost formation.  Surface ridging will slide into
the Ohio Valley towards Thursday morning, resulting in winds going
calm. Given the expected clear skies, it will be rather favorable
conditions for radiational cooling.  Therefore, have gone on the
lower end of guidance, which puts lows in the mid and upper 30s.
These temperatures will likely result in some patchy frost
formation, especially in the more sheltered locations.  Was on the
fence on whether or not to issue a Frost Advisory, but in
coordination with neighboring offices, it was determined that the
frost would not be widespread enough to warrant an advisory at this
time.  The evening shift will continue to monitor the latest data
coming in and adjust the forecast as necessary.

Thursday will be another pleasant late October day, as quite a bit
of sunshine rules for at least the first part of the day.  However,
by the late afternoon into the evening hours, clouds will begin to
increase ahead of a quick-hitting shortwave diving through the mean
trough aloft.  Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50s and lower
60s.

The precipitation associated with the incoming shortwave trough and
synoptic forcing will mostly hold off until after 03Z Friday.
Forecast soundings show pretty deep moisture up to around 600mb with
this system, and cross-sections show good ascent within the
surface-600mb layer.  Therefore, have upped pops substantially (now
in 40-60% range) for late tomorrow night into Friday morning as this
forcing coupled with more-than-adequate moisture should lead to good
coverage of some light showers.  With the increasing cloud cover and
precip, overnight lows will be warmer than tonight, with readings
expected in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend. Wintry Precipitation and
Sub-Freezing Temperatures on the Menu...

Friday - Saturday Morning...

Several issues to talk about for the long term period of this
forecast. Will begin Friday with coverage of showers increasing from
NW to SE across the CWA as the left exit region of a 120 knot upper
impulse dives into the Ohio Valley. The strength of this impulse
coupled with the depth of moisture above 700 mb has increased
confidence in precipitation enough to warrant mention of scattered
to numerous coverage, generally in the 40-60% range east of I-65.
Wouldn`t be surprised if coverage needs to be increased more as this
will be a low QPF/higher coverage setup. Will also have to watch for
the potential for some thunder in our NE as low and mid level lapse
rates quickly steepen Friday afternoon and yield a somewhat unstable
thermal profile. One thermal profile suggested by the NAM would even
support small hail/graupel due to the weak instability and very low
freezing levels (this could be mistaken for sleet given the imminent
cold surge behind it).

Temperatures are expected to find their way to right around the 50
degree mark by midday Friday, before strong cold front associated
with the upper impulse swings through and temperatures begin to fall
late Friday afternoon/evening. Time heights show vertical theta
surfaces, suggesting that NW winds will become quite gusty behind the
frontal passage, so can`t rule out some gusts up between 25-35 mph.

Cold air continues crashing after sundown with steep low and mid
level lapse rates. Thermal profiles begin to support the potential
for snow to mix in with rain, despite surface temperatures still
above freezing before midnight. Saturation up to 700 mb gets you
very near the -7 to -10C threshold, so ice crystals will be marginal
for pure snow once surface temps drop enough. As cold air continues
to crash in toward dawn, it can`t be ruled out that some of our
eastern counties might change over to all snow or snow grains. We
will start losing deeper moisture by this time so again it will be a
race for the cold air to catch up to the moisture. Overall, do think
we will see some wintry precipitation Friday evening and overnight,
however don`t really expect much in the way of impacts as surfaces
and surface temperatures will be above freezing for much of it. Will
have to continue to monitor however as the somewhat convective
nature of these showers could be quite intense at times. Best
coverage of any wintery precipitation should be along and east of
I-65, especially toward the Bluegrass.

Will hold onto a few lingering wintery showers in our far east until
around dawn on Saturday, before surface high starts to take over.
There has been a shift in model data toward colder temps by Saturday
morning, with many suggesting sub-freezing by then. Will hold off on
going just that cold yet as NW cold advective component will still
be quite steady and turbulent mixing may keep things a bit milder
(relatively speaking!). Will go with around freezing.

Saturday - Sunday Morning...

We try and dry out on Saturday with surface high pressure slowly
building in. Slower trend may end up keeping showery activity and
low cloud lingering in our east a bit longer than anticipated. Either
way, temps aren`t getting out of the 40s for highs, some in our NE
may barely get into the low 40s.

The surface high centers itself over our area by early Sunday
morning setting the stage for our coldest air of the season and lows
likely in the upper 20s. Watch for Freeze headlines coming in future
forecasts should current data hold.

Sunday - Wednesday...

A classic warming pattern takes hold the rest of Sunday into Monday
night as upper ridging takes over and we get on the back side of
surface high pressure. The resultant rise in heights/thicknesses
combined with southerly flow and near full sun will allow temps to
rise into the upper 40s and low 50s Sunday, finding their way to the
56-61 range by Monday. Lows will also recover from the 30s on Sunday
night to the 40s on Monday night.

The next precipitation chances come Tuesday into Wednesday as a
frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary, parallel to the
southwesterly upper flow. This SW flow through a deep layer will
advect plenty of moisture along the boundary and could set the stage
for more widespread light rain. Will continue mention of solid
chance for rain from Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Prevailing VFR conditions will continue for the valid TAF period.
This afternoon`s wind gusts are already starting to lay down with
the loss of heating, so may even be able to initialize with wind
speeds 6 kt or less. Light and variable winds overnight may open the
door for fog formation around daybreak at BWG and LEX. Even the most
pessimistic model guidance suggests dewpoint depressions of at least
3-4 degrees, so not intending to hit it very hard. Will continue to
mention 6SM visibility as a heads-up at both BWG and LEX, although
the former has the better chance of actually going MVFR. Light winds
and increasing cirrus on Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292248
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a general trough across
much of the central and eastern CONUS, with an upstream ridge
located across the western seaboard.  This regime will substantially
amplify through the short term period, as a deep trough begins to
build into the Ohio Valley by tomorrow night.  This pattern will
make for declining temperatures along with increasing chances of
precipitation by the end of the short term period into the long term
section below.

Despite slightly cooler temperatures than we`ve seen the past few
days, this afternoon has turned rather pleasant as temperatures have
climbed into the upper 50s and 60s under mostly sunny skies.  Have
continued to watch clouds to the north attempt to push into the
region, but the moisture with these clouds is shallow.  Therefore,
our relatively deep mixing today will likely continue to mix out
this deck as it tries to push in from the north.  Have upped clouds
a bit for this evening, but still think we will see only partly
cloudy skies at worst.

Otherwise, the main story for tonight will be cool temperatures and
the potential for frost formation.  Surface ridging will slide into
the Ohio Valley towards Thursday morning, resulting in winds going
calm. Given the expected clear skies, it will be rather favorable
conditions for radiational cooling.  Therefore, have gone on the
lower end of guidance, which puts lows in the mid and upper 30s.
These temperatures will likely result in some patchy frost
formation, especially in the more sheltered locations.  Was on the
fence on whether or not to issue a Frost Advisory, but in
coordination with neighboring offices, it was determined that the
frost would not be widespread enough to warrant an advisory at this
time.  The evening shift will continue to monitor the latest data
coming in and adjust the forecast as necessary.

Thursday will be another pleasant late October day, as quite a bit
of sunshine rules for at least the first part of the day.  However,
by the late afternoon into the evening hours, clouds will begin to
increase ahead of a quick-hitting shortwave diving through the mean
trough aloft.  Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50s and lower
60s.

The precipitation associated with the incoming shortwave trough and
synoptic forcing will mostly hold off until after 03Z Friday.
Forecast soundings show pretty deep moisture up to around 600mb with
this system, and cross-sections show good ascent within the
surface-600mb layer.  Therefore, have upped pops substantially (now
in 40-60% range) for late tomorrow night into Friday morning as this
forcing coupled with more-than-adequate moisture should lead to good
coverage of some light showers.  With the increasing cloud cover and
precip, overnight lows will be warmer than tonight, with readings
expected in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend. Wintry Precipitation and
Sub-Freezing Temperatures on the Menu...

Friday - Saturday Morning...

Several issues to talk about for the long term period of this
forecast. Will begin Friday with coverage of showers increasing from
NW to SE across the CWA as the left exit region of a 120 knot upper
impulse dives into the Ohio Valley. The strength of this impulse
coupled with the depth of moisture above 700 mb has increased
confidence in precipitation enough to warrant mention of scattered
to numerous coverage, generally in the 40-60% range east of I-65.
Wouldn`t be surprised if coverage needs to be increased more as this
will be a low QPF/higher coverage setup. Will also have to watch for
the potential for some thunder in our NE as low and mid level lapse
rates quickly steepen Friday afternoon and yield a somewhat unstable
thermal profile. One thermal profile suggested by the NAM would even
support small hail/graupel due to the weak instability and very low
freezing levels (this could be mistaken for sleet given the imminent
cold surge behind it).

Temperatures are expected to find their way to right around the 50
degree mark by midday Friday, before strong cold front associated
with the upper impulse swings through and temperatures begin to fall
late Friday afternoon/evening. Time heights show vertical theta
surfaces, suggesting that NW winds will become quite gusty behind the
frontal passage, so can`t rule out some gusts up between 25-35 mph.

Cold air continues crashing after sundown with steep low and mid
level lapse rates. Thermal profiles begin to support the potential
for snow to mix in with rain, despite surface temperatures still
above freezing before midnight. Saturation up to 700 mb gets you
very near the -7 to -10C threshold, so ice crystals will be marginal
for pure snow once surface temps drop enough. As cold air continues
to crash in toward dawn, it can`t be ruled out that some of our
eastern counties might change over to all snow or snow grains. We
will start losing deeper moisture by this time so again it will be a
race for the cold air to catch up to the moisture. Overall, do think
we will see some wintry precipitation Friday evening and overnight,
however don`t really expect much in the way of impacts as surfaces
and surface temperatures will be above freezing for much of it. Will
have to continue to monitor however as the somewhat convective
nature of these showers could be quite intense at times. Best
coverage of any wintery precipitation should be along and east of
I-65, especially toward the Bluegrass.

Will hold onto a few lingering wintery showers in our far east until
around dawn on Saturday, before surface high starts to take over.
There has been a shift in model data toward colder temps by Saturday
morning, with many suggesting sub-freezing by then. Will hold off on
going just that cold yet as NW cold advective component will still
be quite steady and turbulent mixing may keep things a bit milder
(relatively speaking!). Will go with around freezing.

Saturday - Sunday Morning...

We try and dry out on Saturday with surface high pressure slowly
building in. Slower trend may end up keeping showery activity and
low cloud lingering in our east a bit longer than anticipated. Either
way, temps aren`t getting out of the 40s for highs, some in our NE
may barely get into the low 40s.

The surface high centers itself over our area by early Sunday
morning setting the stage for our coldest air of the season and lows
likely in the upper 20s. Watch for Freeze headlines coming in future
forecasts should current data hold.

Sunday - Wednesday...

A classic warming pattern takes hold the rest of Sunday into Monday
night as upper ridging takes over and we get on the back side of
surface high pressure. The resultant rise in heights/thicknesses
combined with southerly flow and near full sun will allow temps to
rise into the upper 40s and low 50s Sunday, finding their way to the
56-61 range by Monday. Lows will also recover from the 30s on Sunday
night to the 40s on Monday night.

The next precipitation chances come Tuesday into Wednesday as a
frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary, parallel to the
southwesterly upper flow. This SW flow through a deep layer will
advect plenty of moisture along the boundary and could set the stage
for more widespread light rain. Will continue mention of solid
chance for rain from Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Prevailing VFR conditions will continue for the valid TAF period.
This afternoon`s wind gusts are already starting to lay down with
the loss of heating, so may even be able to initialize with wind
speeds 6 kt or less. Light and variable winds overnight may open the
door for fog formation around daybreak at BWG and LEX. Even the most
pessimistic model guidance suggests dewpoint depressions of at least
3-4 degrees, so not intending to hit it very hard. Will continue to
mention 6SM visibility as a heads-up at both BWG and LEX, although
the former has the better chance of actually going MVFR. Light winds
and increasing cirrus on Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291913
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a general trough across
much of the central and eastern CONUS, with an upstream ridge
located across the western seaboard.  This regime will substantially
amplify through the short term period, as a deep trough begins to
build into the Ohio Valley by tomorrow night.  This pattern will
make for declining temperatures along with increasing chances of
precipitation by the end of the short term period into the long term
section below.

Despite slightly cooler temperatures than we`ve seen the past few
days, this afternoon has turned rather pleasant as temperatures have
climbed into the upper 50s and 60s under mostly sunny skies.  Have
continued to watch clouds to the north attempt to push into the
region, but the moisture with these clouds is shallow.  Therefore,
our relatively deep mixing today will likely continue to mix out
this deck as it tries to push in from the north.  Have upped clouds
a bit for this evening, but still think we will see only partly
cloudy skies at worst.

Otherwise, the main story for tonight will be cool temperatures and
the potential for frost formation.  Surface ridging will slide into
the Ohio Valley towards Thursday morning, resulting in winds going
calm. Given the expected clear skies, it will be rather favorable
conditions for radiational cooling.  Therefore, have gone on the
lower end of guidance, which puts lows in the mid and upper 30s.
These temperatures will likely result in some patchy frost
formation, especially in the more sheltered locations.  Was on the
fence on whether or not to issue a Frost Advisory, but in
coordination with neighboring offices, it was determined that the
frost would not be widespread enough to warrant an advisory at this
time.  The evening shift will continue to monitor the latest data
coming in and adjust the forecast as necessary.

Thursday will be another pleasant late October day, as quite a bit
of sunshine rules for at least the first part of the day.  However,
by the late afternoon into the evening hours, clouds will begin to
increase ahead of a quick-hitting shortwave diving through the mean
trough aloft.  Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50s and lower
60s.

The precipitation associated with the incoming shortwave trough and
synoptic forcing will mostly hold off until after 03Z Friday.
Forecast soundings show pretty deep moisture up to around 600mb with
this system, and cross-sections show good ascent within the
surface-600mb layer.  Therefore, have upped pops substantially (now
in 40-60% range) for late tomorrow night into Friday morning as this
forcing coupled with more-than-adequate moisture should lead to good
coverage of some light showers.  With the increasing cloud cover and
precip, overnight lows will be warmer than tonight, with readings
expected in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend. Wintry Precipitation and
Sub-Freezing Temperatures on the Menu...

Friday - Saturday Morning...

Several issues to talk about for the long term period of this
forecast. Will begin Friday with coverage of showers increasing from
NW to SE across the CWA as the left exit region of a 120 knot upper
impulse dives into the Ohio Valley. The strength of this impulse
coupled with the depth of moisture above 700 mb has increased
confidence in precipitation enough to warrant mention of scattered
to numerous coverage, generally in the 40-60% range east of I-65.
Wouldn`t be surprised if coverage needs to be increased more as this
will be a low QPF/higher coverage setup. Will also have to watch for
the potential for some thunder in our NE as low and mid level lapse
rates quickly steepen Friday afternoon and yield a somewhat unstable
thermal profile. One thermal profile suggested by the NAM would even
support small hail/graupel due to the weak instability and very low
freezing levels (this could be mistaken for sleet given the imminent
cold surge behind it).

Temperatures are expected to find their way to right around the 50
degree mark by midday Friday, before strong cold front associated
with the upper impulse swings through and temperatures begin to fall
late Friday afternoon/evening. Time heights show vertical theta
surfaces, suggesting that NW winds will become quite gusty behind the
frontal passage, so can`t rule out some gusts up between 25-35 mph.

Cold air continues crashing after sundown with steep low and mid
level lapse rates. Thermal profiles begin to support the potential
for snow to mix in with rain, despite surface temperatures still
above freezing before midnight. Saturation up to 700 mb gets you
very near the -7 to -10C threshold, so ice crystals will be marginal
for pure snow once surface temps drop enough. As cold air continues
to crash in toward dawn, it can`t be ruled out that some of our
eastern counties might change over to all snow or snow grains. We
will start losing deeper moisture by this time so again it will be a
race for the cold air to catch up to the moisture. Overall, do think
we will see some wintry precipitation Friday evening and overnight,
however don`t really expect much in the way of impacts as surfaces
and surface temperatures will be above freezing for much of it. Will
have to continue to monitor however as the somewhat convective
nature of these showers could be quite intense at times. Best
coverage of any wintery precipitation should be along and east of
I-65, especially toward the Bluegrass.

Will hold onto a few lingering wintery showers in our far east until
around dawn on Saturday, before surface high starts to take over.
There has been a shift in model data toward colder temps by Saturday
morning, with many suggesting sub-freezing by then. Will hold off on
going just that cold yet as NW cold advective component will still
be quite steady and turbulent mixing may keep things a bit milder
(relatively speaking!). Will go with around freezing.

Saturday - Sunday Morning...

We try and dry out on Saturday with surface high pressure slowly
building in. Slower trend may end up keeping showery activity and
low cloud lingering in our east a bit longer than anticipated. Either
way, temps aren`t getting out of the 40s for highs, some in our NE
may barely get into the low 40s.

The surface high centers itself over our area by early Sunday
morning setting the stage for our coldest air of the season and lows
likely in the upper 20s. Watch for Freeze headlines coming in future
forecasts should current data hold.

Sunday - Wednesday...

A classic warming pattern takes hold the rest of Sunday into Monday
night as upper ridging takes over and we get on the back side of
surface high pressure. The resultant rise in heights/thicknesses
combined with southerly flow and near full sun will allow temps to
rise into the upper 40s and low 50s Sunday, finding their way to the
56-61 range by Monday. Lows will also recover from the 30s on Sunday
night to the 40s on Monday night.

The next precipitation chances come Tuesday into Wednesday as a
frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary, parallel to the
southwesterly upper flow. This SW flow through a deep layer will
advect plenty of moisture along the boundary and could set the stage
for more widespread light rain. Will continue mention of solid
chance for rain from Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 103 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although there
could be some light fog in prone locations towards Thursday
morning.  For the remainder of this afternoon, expect westerly winds
to turn more WNW and continue around 10 knots with gusts upwards of
15 knots at times.  Clouds (around FL035) from the northwest will
attempt to push into KSDF and KLEX this evening, but will likely
struggle to do so as they mix out late this afternoon.

Some guidance is trying to hint at more fog development overnight at
KLEX and KBWG.  However, drier air is quickly working in and even
guidance suggesting fog has morning dewpoint depression upwards of 3
degrees.  Therefore, will just hint at fog development with a 6SM
group at KLEX and KBWG, but leave any restrictions out for now.
Otherwise, Thursday will just feature some increasing high clouds,
but winds will remain light with VFR conditions continuing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291706
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
106 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 745 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

The back edge of the clouds is about halfway through the region, but
in its wake are a thin layer of low clouds, as evident on satellite
fog product, area webcams, and automated observing stations. Have
add patchy dense fog to the forecast for the next couple of hours,
as the HRRR and NARRE both hint at these clouds sticking around.
Also issued a special weather statement highlighting the impact.

Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY
as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early
this morning.  Also, added some patchy fog over portions of
southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and
visibilities are dropping at some observation sites.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east.  This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours.  These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.

This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day.  Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.

Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise.  This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning.  Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky.  Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning.  Stay
tuned!

After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon.  Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...

OK, let`s cut to the chase.  Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung.  And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.

The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes.  We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley.  Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley.  This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.

Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning.  The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning.  Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks back an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.

A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up.  This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday.  These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 103 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although there
could be some light fog in prone locations towards Thursday
morning.  For the remainder of this afternoon, expect westerly winds
to turn more WNW and continue around 10 knots with gusts upwards of
15 knots at times.  Clouds (around FL035) from the northwest will
attempt to push into KSDF and KLEX this evening, but will likely
struggle to do so as they mix out late this afternoon.

Some guidance is trying to hint at more fog development overnight at
KLEX and KBWG.  However, drier air is quickly working in and even
guidance suggesting fog has morning dewpoint depression upwards of 3
degrees.  Therefore, will just hint at fog development with a 6SM
group at KLEX and KBWG, but leave any restrictions out for now.
Otherwise, Thursday will just feature some increasing high clouds,
but winds will remain light with VFR conditions continuing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291400
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 745 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

The back edge of the clouds is about halfway through the region, but
in its wake are a thin layer of low clouds, as evident on satellite
fog product, area webcams, and automated observing stations. Have
add patchy dense fog to the forecast for the next couple of hours,
as the HRRR and NARRE both hint at these clouds sticking around.
Also issued a special weather statement highlighting the impact.

Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY
as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early
this morning.  Also, added some patchy fog over portions of
southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and
visibilities are dropping at some observation sites.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east.  This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours.  These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.

This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day.  Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.

Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise.  This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning.  Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky.  Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning.  Stay
tuned!

After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon.  Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...

OK, let`s cut to the chase.  Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung.  And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.

The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes.  We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley.  Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley.  This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.

Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning.  The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning.  Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks back an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.

A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up.  This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday.  These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period.  However, BWG may
see some MVFR conditions due to light br for a brief period this
morning.

Light WSW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts
primarily from the W behind a departing cold front.  Tonight expect
a wind shift to the NW as a dry trough swings through the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS/RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291150
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
750 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 745 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

The back edge of the clouds is about halfway through the region, but
in its wake are a thin layer of low clouds, as evident on satellite
fog product, area webcams, and automated observing stations. Have
add patchy dense fog to the forecast for the next couple of hours,
as the HRRR and NARRE both hint at these clouds sticking around.
Also issued a special weather statement highlighting the impact.

Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY
as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early
this morning.  Also, added some patchy fog over portions of
southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and
visibilities are dropping at some observation sites.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east.  This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours.  These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.

This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day.  Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.

Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise.  This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning.  Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky.  Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning.  Stay
tuned!

After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon.  Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...

OK, let`s cut to the chase.  Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung.  And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.

The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes.  We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley.  Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley.  This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.

Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning.  The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning.  Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks ahead an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.

A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up.  This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday.  These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period.  However, BWG may
see some MVFR conditions due to light br for a brief period this
morning.

Light WSW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts
primarily from the W behind a departing cold front.  Tonight expect
a wind shift to the NW as a dry trough swings through the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS/RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291044
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
644 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY
as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early
this morning.  Also, added some patchy fog over portions of
southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and
visibilities are dropping at some observation sites.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east.  This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours.  These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.

This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day.  Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.

Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise.  This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning.  Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky.  Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning.  Stay
tuned!

After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon.  Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...

OK, let`s cut to the chase.  Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung.  And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.

The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes.  We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley.  Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley.  This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.

Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning.  The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning.  Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks ahead an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.

A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up.  This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday.  These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period.  However, BWG may
see some MVFR conditions due to light br for a brief period this
morning.

Light WSW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts
primarily from the W behind a departing cold front.  Tonight expect
a wind shift to the NW as a dry trough swings through the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291044
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
644 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY
as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early
this morning.  Also, added some patchy fog over portions of
southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and
visibilities are dropping at some observation sites.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east.  This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours.  These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.

This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day.  Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.

Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise.  This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning.  Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky.  Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning.  Stay
tuned!

After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon.  Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...

OK, let`s cut to the chase.  Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung.  And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.

The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes.  We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley.  Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley.  This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.

Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning.  The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning.  Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks ahead an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.

A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up.  This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday.  These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period.  However, BWG may
see some MVFR conditions due to light br for a brief period this
morning.

Light WSW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts
primarily from the W behind a departing cold front.  Tonight expect
a wind shift to the NW as a dry trough swings through the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291025
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
625 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY
as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early
this morning.  Also, added some patchy fog over portions of
southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and
visibilities are dropping at some observation sites.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east.  This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours.  These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.

This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day.  Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.

Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise.  This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning.  Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky.  Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning.  Stay
tuned!

After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon.  Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...

OK, let`s cut to the chase.  Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung.  And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.

The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes.  We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley.  Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley.  This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.

Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning.  The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning.  Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks ahead an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.

A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up.  This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday.  These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Rain showers have stuck around a little longer than previously
forecast at the TAF sites.  Although they shouldn`t cause any flight
restrictions, expect on and off rain showers affecting all TAFs
early this morning and tapering from NW to SE before sunrise.

SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period.  However, BWG may
see some MVFR conditions (likely due to light br) during the
pre-dawn hours as rain showers are ending.

Light SW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts primarily
from the W behind a departing cold front.  Tonight expect a wind
shift to the NW as a weak dry trough swings through the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291025
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
625 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY
as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early
this morning.  Also, added some patchy fog over portions of
southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and
visibilities are dropping at some observation sites.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east.  This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours.  These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.

This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day.  Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.

Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise.  This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning.  Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky.  Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning.  Stay
tuned!

After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon.  Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...

OK, let`s cut to the chase.  Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung.  And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.

The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes.  We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley.  Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley.  This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.

Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning.  The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning.  Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks ahead an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.

A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up.  This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday.  These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Rain showers have stuck around a little longer than previously
forecast at the TAF sites.  Although they shouldn`t cause any flight
restrictions, expect on and off rain showers affecting all TAFs
early this morning and tapering from NW to SE before sunrise.

SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period.  However, BWG may
see some MVFR conditions (likely due to light br) during the
pre-dawn hours as rain showers are ending.

Light SW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts primarily
from the W behind a departing cold front.  Tonight expect a wind
shift to the NW as a weak dry trough swings through the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290824
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
424 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east.  This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours.  These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.

This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day.  Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.

Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise.  This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning.  Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky.  Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning.  Stay
tuned!

After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon.  Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...

OK, let`s cut to the chase.  Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung.  And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.

The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes.  We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley.  Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley.  This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.

Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning.  The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning.  Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks ahead an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.

A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up.  This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday.  These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Rain showers have stuck around a little longer than previously
forecast at the TAF sites.  Although they shouldn`t cause any flight
restrictions, expect on and off rain showers affecting all TAFs
early this morning and tapering from NW to SE before sunrise.

SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period.  However, BWG may
see some MVFR conditions (likely due to light br) during the
pre-dawn hours as rain showers are ending.

Light SW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts primarily
from the W behind a departing cold front.  Tonight expect a wind
shift to the NW as a weak dry trough swings through the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........AMS








000
FXUS63 KLMK 290523
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs back up to 20% through southern
Indiana and north central KY for the next few hours before slowly
tapering them south and east through the rest of central KY
overnight.  Isld showers have been slow to exit the area this
evening.  Forecast min temps in the 40s to around 50 still look on
track for this morning.

Issued at 825 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Quick update to the first period to show a fairly sharp gradient in
POPs in the general vicinity of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass
Parkways. Cold front is cleanly south and east of the area, but an
impulse aloft has fueled showers that continue to stream ENE along
the backside of the boundary. Expect the precip to taper off from
west to east after midnight, but until then a gentle steady rain
with additional QPF on the order of a quarter inch.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Tues Oct 28 2014

The cold front is now located along a line from Cincinnati down
through Elizabethtown and Bowling Green. It will continue to push
east through our CWA by 4-5 PM in our NE and by 6 or 7 PM near Lake
Cumberland. A thin line of showers has developed right along the
front and will continue to push east. Other than the thin line of
showers and a few isolated showers ahead of the front, will see
relative lull in activity for a few hours this afternoon.

Expect to see another wave of precipitation develop along and behind
the front this evening as a surge in moisture ahead of a disturbance
in the SW flow aloft moves over the area. This precipitation is
expected to focus mainly across our SE CWA, with other locations
staying mostly dry. Best timing for this secondary round of
precipitation should be between 6 PM and 2 AM EDT. Will see a drop
off in low temperatures tonight, however the coldest air will lag
behind until Wednesday night. Look for lows generally in the 40s.

500mb trough axis will slide through tomorrow with high pressure
building in at the surface. Expect dry and mostly sunny skies,
although will be cooler behind the front. Look for highs around 60.

The center of the surface high arrives Wednesday night with brief
upper ridging in place. With slackening winds, mostly clear skies
and much drier air, temperatures look to fall into the mid and upper
30s. Some patchy and more widespread areas of frost will be a
possibility. Stay up to date of the latest forecasts for potential
future headlines.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely...

The medium range will start off with high pressure pushing off to
our east Thursday night with clouds increasing as a lead upper level
trough drops into the western Great Lakes.  This feature will likely
bring some drizzle and some light rain showers to the region
beginning late Thursday night.  Temperatures are likely to cool into
the lower-middle 40s.

A second and more potent upper trough will drop quickly southward
out of the Great Lakes during the day on Friday as a wave of low
pressure moves across southern KY/Northern TN.  These features will
bring plenty of clouds and light rain showers to the area during the
day.  As the low heads east Friday afternoon, temperatures will fall
as a large push of cold air drops southward out of the Great Lakes
into the Ohio Valley.  Early day high temperatures will warm into
the lower-middle 50s in the north with mid-upper 50s across the
south...with temperatures then dropping quickly through the
afternoon as gusty northerly winds pick up.

For Friday night, the upper trough will sharpen considerably and
close off as it drops through far eastern IN/SW OH/E KY.  This will
lead to a surface low developing to our east across the Virginias
and then moving off the US east coast.  Continued cold advection
aloft, as evidenced in time-height and model proximity soundings,
will lead to the atmospheric column cooling from the top down Friday
night.  Initially, light rain showers are expected Friday night, but
as the column cools down aloft, some light sleet and perhaps a
little light snow could mix in.  This is still rather questionable
as model time-height and soundings show deeper moisture departing as
the column cools.  For now, have added some slight chances of light
sleet and some light snow in for our eastern areas Friday night.
Surface temperatures will likely cool into the 30s Friday evening
and then bottom out in the lower-middle 30s in the east.  Thus, any
snow that falls will not accumulate.  Further west, within the drier
air, we`ll likely see a little more clearing which will allow
temperatures to fall into the lower 30s out in our western CWA with
the potential for some frost.

Saturday looks to be a cold/crisp day across the region.  Skies are
expected to clear from west to east.  Continued cold advection will
likely keep afternoon temperatures in the lower-middle 40s in the
east with mainly upper 40s out toward the I-65 corridor and points
west.  Clear skies and lighter winds will result in widespread
sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night and Sunday morning...with
areas of frost likely.  The multi-model consensus suggests lows in
the upper 20s to around 30 in most locations.

High pressure will quickly transverse eastward on Sunday resulting
in dry but with moderating temperatures.  Highs on Sunday will
likely warm to around 50 in the east with lower-middle 50s out in
the central and western sections.  Combination of upper ridging and
an increasing breezy southwesterly flow should result in more
moderation of temperatures on Monday with highs warming back into
the 60s.

Another strong upper level trough axis will approach the region
Monday night and into Tuesday bringing a very good shot of rain
showers and possible thunderstorms.  Temperatures will be milder
ahead of this feature with readings likely warming into the
lower-middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Rain showers have stuck around a little longer than previously
forecast at the TAF sites.  Although they shouldn`t cause any flight
restrictions, expect on and off rain showers affecting all TAFs
early this morning and tapering from NW to SE before sunrise.

SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period.  However, BWG may
see some MVFR conditions (likely due to light br) during the
pre-dawn hours as rain showers are ending.

Light SW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts primarily
from the W behind a departing cold front.  Tonight expect a wind
shift to the NW as a weak dry trough swings through the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS/AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290407
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1207 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs back up to 20% through southern
Indiana and north central KY for the next few hours before slowly
tapering them south and east through the rest of central KY
overnight.  Isld showers have been slow to exit the area this
evening.  Forecast min temps in the 40s to around 50 still look on
track for this morning.

Issued at 825 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Quick update to the first period to show a fairly sharp gradient in
POPs in the general vicinity of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass
Parkways. Cold front is cleanly south and east of the area, but an
impulse aloft has fueled showers that continue to stream ENE along
the backside of the boundary. Expect the precip to taper off from
west to east after midnight, but until then a gentle steady rain
with additional QPF on the order of a quarter inch.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Tues Oct 28 2014

The cold front is now located along a line from Cincinnati down
through Elizabethtown and Bowling Green. It will continue to push
east through our CWA by 4-5 PM in our NE and by 6 or 7 PM near Lake
Cumberland. A thin line of showers has developed right along the
front and will continue to push east. Other than the thin line of
showers and a few isolated showers ahead of the front, will see
relative lull in activity for a few hours this afternoon.

Expect to see another wave of precipitation develop along and behind
the front this evening as a surge in moisture ahead of a disturbance
in the SW flow aloft moves over the area. This precipitation is
expected to focus mainly across our SE CWA, with other locations
staying mostly dry. Best timing for this secondary round of
precipitation should be between 6 PM and 2 AM EDT. Will see a drop
off in low temperatures tonight, however the coldest air will lag
behind until Wednesday night. Look for lows generally in the 40s.

500mb trough axis will slide through tomorrow with high pressure
building in at the surface. Expect dry and mostly sunny skies,
although will be cooler behind the front. Look for highs around 60.

The center of the surface high arrives Wednesday night with brief
upper ridging in place. With slackening winds, mostly clear skies
and much drier air, temperatures look to fall into the mid and upper
30s. Some patchy and more widespread areas of frost will be a
possibility. Stay up to date of the latest forecasts for potential
future headlines.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely...

The medium range will start off with high pressure pushing off to
our east Thursday night with clouds increasing as a lead upper level
trough drops into the western Great Lakes.  This feature will likely
bring some drizzle and some light rain showers to the region
beginning late Thursday night.  Temperatures are likely to cool into
the lower-middle 40s.

A second and more potent upper trough will drop quickly southward
out of the Great Lakes during the day on Friday as a wave of low
pressure moves across southern KY/Northern TN.  These features will
bring plenty of clouds and light rain showers to the area during the
day.  As the low heads east Friday afternoon, temperatures will fall
as a large push of cold air drops southward out of the Great Lakes
into the Ohio Valley.  Early day high temperatures will warm into
the lower-middle 50s in the north with mid-upper 50s across the
south...with temperatures then dropping quickly through the
afternoon as gusty northerly winds pick up.

For Friday night, the upper trough will sharpen considerably and
close off as it drops through far eastern IN/SW OH/E KY.  This will
lead to a surface low developing to our east across the Virginias
and then moving off the US east coast.  Continued cold advection
aloft, as evidenced in time-height and model proximity soundings,
will lead to the atmospheric column cooling from the top down Friday
night.  Initially, light rain showers are expected Friday night, but
as the column cools down aloft, some light sleet and perhaps a
little light snow could mix in.  This is still rather questionable
as model time-height and soundings show deeper moisture departing as
the column cools.  For now, have added some slight chances of light
sleet and some light snow in for our eastern areas Friday night.
Surface temperatures will likely cool into the 30s Friday evening
and then bottom out in the lower-middle 30s in the east.  Thus, any
snow that falls will not accumulate.  Further west, within the drier
air, we`ll likely see a little more clearing which will allow
temperatures to fall into the lower 30s out in our western CWA with
the potential for some frost.

Saturday looks to be a cold/crisp day across the region.  Skies are
expected to clear from west to east.  Continued cold advection will
likely keep afternoon temperatures in the lower-middle 40s in the
east with mainly upper 40s out toward the I-65 corridor and points
west.  Clear skies and lighter winds will result in widespread
sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night and Sunday morning...with
areas of frost likely.  The multi-model consensus suggests lows in
the upper 20s to around 30 in most locations.

High pressure will quickly transverse eastward on Sunday resulting
in dry but with moderating temperatures.  Highs on Sunday will
likely warm to around 50 in the east with lower-middle 50s out in
the central and western sections.  Combination of upper ridging and
an increasing breezy southwesterly flow should result in more
moderation of temperatures on Monday with highs warming back into
the 60s.

Another strong upper level trough axis will approach the region
Monday night and into Tuesday bringing a very good shot of rain
showers and possible thunderstorms.  Temperatures will be milder
ahead of this feature with readings likely warming into the
lower-middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Cold front and what was a broken line of showers now pushing into
eastern Kentucky, and extending back into middle Tennessee. An upper
wave pushing into the Tennessee Valley is fueling another area of
more stratiform rain across the Pennyrile region, and this precip
will affect BWG and skirt LEX through this evening. Will maintain
MVFR ceilings there, with a TEMPO for MVFR visibilities in the
heavier rain. All this should remain south of SDF, which should hold
in with a mid-level ceiling and winds coming around to WNW.

Once the upper wave pushes east of the area, should go VFR if not
clear out fairly quickly. Light NW winds will keep it just mixy
enough that fog shouldn`t be a concern as we head toward morning.

Clear skies and W-NW winds holding just under 10 kt through the day
Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS/AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290407
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1207 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs back up to 20% through southern
Indiana and north central KY for the next few hours before slowly
tapering them south and east through the rest of central KY
overnight.  Isld showers have been slow to exit the area this
evening.  Forecast min temps in the 40s to around 50 still look on
track for this morning.

Issued at 825 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Quick update to the first period to show a fairly sharp gradient in
POPs in the general vicinity of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass
Parkways. Cold front is cleanly south and east of the area, but an
impulse aloft has fueled showers that continue to stream ENE along
the backside of the boundary. Expect the precip to taper off from
west to east after midnight, but until then a gentle steady rain
with additional QPF on the order of a quarter inch.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Tues Oct 28 2014

The cold front is now located along a line from Cincinnati down
through Elizabethtown and Bowling Green. It will continue to push
east through our CWA by 4-5 PM in our NE and by 6 or 7 PM near Lake
Cumberland. A thin line of showers has developed right along the
front and will continue to push east. Other than the thin line of
showers and a few isolated showers ahead of the front, will see
relative lull in activity for a few hours this afternoon.

Expect to see another wave of precipitation develop along and behind
the front this evening as a surge in moisture ahead of a disturbance
in the SW flow aloft moves over the area. This precipitation is
expected to focus mainly across our SE CWA, with other locations
staying mostly dry. Best timing for this secondary round of
precipitation should be between 6 PM and 2 AM EDT. Will see a drop
off in low temperatures tonight, however the coldest air will lag
behind until Wednesday night. Look for lows generally in the 40s.

500mb trough axis will slide through tomorrow with high pressure
building in at the surface. Expect dry and mostly sunny skies,
although will be cooler behind the front. Look for highs around 60.

The center of the surface high arrives Wednesday night with brief
upper ridging in place. With slackening winds, mostly clear skies
and much drier air, temperatures look to fall into the mid and upper
30s. Some patchy and more widespread areas of frost will be a
possibility. Stay up to date of the latest forecasts for potential
future headlines.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely...

The medium range will start off with high pressure pushing off to
our east Thursday night with clouds increasing as a lead upper level
trough drops into the western Great Lakes.  This feature will likely
bring some drizzle and some light rain showers to the region
beginning late Thursday night.  Temperatures are likely to cool into
the lower-middle 40s.

A second and more potent upper trough will drop quickly southward
out of the Great Lakes during the day on Friday as a wave of low
pressure moves across southern KY/Northern TN.  These features will
bring plenty of clouds and light rain showers to the area during the
day.  As the low heads east Friday afternoon, temperatures will fall
as a large push of cold air drops southward out of the Great Lakes
into the Ohio Valley.  Early day high temperatures will warm into
the lower-middle 50s in the north with mid-upper 50s across the
south...with temperatures then dropping quickly through the
afternoon as gusty northerly winds pick up.

For Friday night, the upper trough will sharpen considerably and
close off as it drops through far eastern IN/SW OH/E KY.  This will
lead to a surface low developing to our east across the Virginias
and then moving off the US east coast.  Continued cold advection
aloft, as evidenced in time-height and model proximity soundings,
will lead to the atmospheric column cooling from the top down Friday
night.  Initially, light rain showers are expected Friday night, but
as the column cools down aloft, some light sleet and perhaps a
little light snow could mix in.  This is still rather questionable
as model time-height and soundings show deeper moisture departing as
the column cools.  For now, have added some slight chances of light
sleet and some light snow in for our eastern areas Friday night.
Surface temperatures will likely cool into the 30s Friday evening
and then bottom out in the lower-middle 30s in the east.  Thus, any
snow that falls will not accumulate.  Further west, within the drier
air, we`ll likely see a little more clearing which will allow
temperatures to fall into the lower 30s out in our western CWA with
the potential for some frost.

Saturday looks to be a cold/crisp day across the region.  Skies are
expected to clear from west to east.  Continued cold advection will
likely keep afternoon temperatures in the lower-middle 40s in the
east with mainly upper 40s out toward the I-65 corridor and points
west.  Clear skies and lighter winds will result in widespread
sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night and Sunday morning...with
areas of frost likely.  The multi-model consensus suggests lows in
the upper 20s to around 30 in most locations.

High pressure will quickly transverse eastward on Sunday resulting
in dry but with moderating temperatures.  Highs on Sunday will
likely warm to around 50 in the east with lower-middle 50s out in
the central and western sections.  Combination of upper ridging and
an increasing breezy southwesterly flow should result in more
moderation of temperatures on Monday with highs warming back into
the 60s.

Another strong upper level trough axis will approach the region
Monday night and into Tuesday bringing a very good shot of rain
showers and possible thunderstorms.  Temperatures will be milder
ahead of this feature with readings likely warming into the
lower-middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Cold front and what was a broken line of showers now pushing into
eastern Kentucky, and extending back into middle Tennessee. An upper
wave pushing into the Tennessee Valley is fueling another area of
more stratiform rain across the Pennyrile region, and this precip
will affect BWG and skirt LEX through this evening. Will maintain
MVFR ceilings there, with a TEMPO for MVFR visibilities in the
heavier rain. All this should remain south of SDF, which should hold
in with a mid-level ceiling and winds coming around to WNW.

Once the upper wave pushes east of the area, should go VFR if not
clear out fairly quickly. Light NW winds will keep it just mixy
enough that fog shouldn`t be a concern as we head toward morning.

Clear skies and W-NW winds holding just under 10 kt through the day
Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS/AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290028
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
828 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Quick update to the first period to show a fairly sharp gradient in
POPs in the general vicinity of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass
Parkways. Cold front is cleanly south and east of the area, but,
as expected, an impulse aloft has fueled showers that continue to
stream ENE along the backside of the boundary. Expect the precip
to taper off from west to east after midnight, but until then a
gentle steady rain with additional QPF on the order of a quarter
inch.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Tues Oct 28 2014

The cold front is now located along a line from Cincinnati down
through Elizabethtown and Bowling Green. It will continue to push
east through our CWA by 4-5 PM in our NE and by 6 or 7 PM near Lake
Cumberland. A thin line of showers has developed right along the
front and will continue to push east. Other than the thin line of
showers and a few isolated showers ahead of the front, will see
relative lull in activity for a few hours this afternoon.

Expect to see another wave of precipitation develop along and behind
the front this evening as a surge in moisture ahead of a disturbance
in the SW flow aloft moves over the area. This precipitation is
expected to focus mainly across our SE CWA, with other locations
staying mostly dry. Best timing for this secondary round of
precipitation should be between 6 PM and 2 AM EDT. Will see a drop
off in low temperatures tonight, however the coldest air will lag
behind until Wednesday night. Look for lows generally in the 40s.

500mb trough axis will slide through tomorrow with high pressure
building in at the surface. Expect dry and mostly sunny skies,
although will be cooler behind the front. Look for highs around 60.

The center of the surface high arrives Wednesday night with brief
upper ridging in place. With slackening winds, mostly clear skies
and much drier air, temperatures look to fall into the mid and upper
30s. Some patchy and more widespread areas of frost will be a
possibility. Stay up to date of the latest forecasts for potential
future headlines.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014

...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely...

The medium range will start off with high pressure pushing off to
our east Thursday night with clouds increasing as a lead upper level
trough drops into the western Great Lakes.  This feature will likely
bring some drizzle and some light rain showers to the region
beginning late Thursday night.  Temperatures are likely to cool into
the lower-middle 40s.

A second and more potent upper trough will drop quickly southward
out of the Great Lakes during the day on Friday as a wave of low
pressure moves across southern KY/Northern TN.  These features will
bring plenty of clouds and light rain showers to the area during the
day.  As the low heads east Friday afternoon, temperatures will fall
as a large push of cold air drops southward out of the Great Lakes
into the Ohio Valley.  Early day high temperatures will warm into
the lower-middle 50s in the north with mid-upper 50s across the
south...with temperatures then dropping quickly through the
afternoon as gusty northerly winds pick up.

For Friday night, the upper trough will sharpen considerably and
close off as it drops through far eastern IN/SW OH/E KY.  This will
lead to a surface low developing to our east across the Virginias
and then moving off the US east coast.  Continued cold advection
aloft, as evidenced in time-height and model proximity soundings,
will lead to the atmospheric column cooling from the top down Friday
night.  Initially, light rain showers are expected Friday night, but
as the column cools down aloft, some light sleet and perhaps a
little light snow could mix in.  This is still rather questionable
as model time-height and soundings show deeper moisture departing as
the column cools.  For now, have added some slight chances of light
sleet and some light snow in for our eastern areas Friday night.
Surface temperatures will likely cool into the 30s Friday evening
and then bottom out in the lower-middle 30s in the east.  Thus, any
snow that falls will not accumulate.  Further west, within the drier
air, we`ll likely see a little more clearing which will allow
temperatures to fall into the lower 30s out in our western CWA with
the potential for some frost.

Saturday looks to be a cold/crisp day across the region.  Skies are
expected to clear from west to east.  Continued cold advection will
likely keep afternoon temperatures in the lower-middle 40s in the
east with mainly upper 40s out toward the I-65 corridor and points
west.  Clear skies and lighter winds will result in widespread
sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night and Sunday morning...with
areas of frost likely.  The multi-model consensus suggests lows in
the upper 20s to around 30 in most locations.

High pressure will quickly transverse eastward on Sunday resulting
in dry but with moderating temperatures.  Highs on Sunday will
likely warm to around 50 in the east with lower-middle 50s out in
the central and western sections.  Combination of upper ridging and
an increasing breezy southwesterly flow should result in more
moderation of temperatures on Monday with highs warming back into
the 60s.

Another strong upper level trough axis will approach the region
Monday night and into Tuesday bringing a very good shot of rain
showers and possible thunderstorms.  Temperatures will be milder
ahead of this feature with readings likely warming into the
lower-middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Cold front and what was a broken line of showers now pushing into
eastern Kentucky, and extending back into middle Tennessee. An upper
wave pushing into the Tennessee Valley is fueling another area of
more stratiform rain across the Pennyrile region, and this precip
will affect BWG and skirt LEX through this evening. Will maintain
MVFR ceilings there, with a TEMPO for MVFR visibilities in the
heavier rain. All this should remain south of SDF, which should hold
in with a mid-level ceiling and winds coming around to WNW.

Once the upper wave pushes east of the area, should go VFR if not
clear out fairly quickly. Light NW winds will keep it just mixy
enough that fog shouldn`t be a concern as we head toward morning.

Clear skies and W-NW winds holding just under 10 kt through the day
Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS







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