Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KLMK 230714
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak shortwave
ridging across the Ohio Valley.  However, a shortwave trough will
push in from the northwest tonight into Friday, bringing an increase
in cloud cover and a small chance for a few sprinkles.

Clouds continue to persist early this morning across portions of the
Northern Bluegrass.  However, there have been large breaks occurring
in these clouds across portions of southern Ohio, which will
continue to push southwest into KY.  The clouds have kept
temperatures up thus far overnight, which will likely inhibit
widespread frost formation across portions of the Northern
Bluegrass.  Elsewhere, temperatures have fallen into the 30s and
lower 40s.  These readings will continue to drop a few more degrees
over the coming hours, thus some frost formation still appears
likely, especially in sheltered areas.

The region will see abundant sunshine today as surface ridging
remains fixed over the Ohio Valley.  With the surface high parked
over the region, turbulent mixing will be limited.  Thus, despite
850mb temps rising to near 10C, surface temperatures will only top
out in the low to perhaps middle 60s.

For tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough will approach the
region.  This will make for an increase in cloud cover from west to
east through the overnight hours into Friday.  This shortwave trough
has limited deep moisture, and will be fighting a rather dry
near-surface airmass.  Therefore, do not expect anything more than
increased cloudiness and perhaps some virga/a few sprinkles out of
this system late tonight into Friday.  Lows tonight will dip into
the lower 40s, with highs on Friday recovering back into the middle
60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Weak high pressure at the surface Friday night will give way to a
cold front moving through the area Saturday. The front will be
weakening and only some shallow low level moisture will be
associated with it, so while we`ll see an increase in cloudiness it
appears the front will be free of measurable precipitation.  Lows
Friday night and Saturday night should mostly be in the 40s.  Highs
on Saturday ahead of the front may be able to rise into the 70s,
though that will depend in part on just how much cloudiness there
is.  The numbers that are in the forecast right now may be a little
too optimistic.

Sunday through Monday night high pressure over the southeastern U.S.
will keep us dry.  Sunday will be cool with temps in the 60s as the
high is just about overhead.  On Monday, though, we`ll be in return
flow behind the high and ahead of an approaching cold front.
Southerly breezes should help to propel us well into the 70s.

That cold front will draw closer on Tuesday but will remain to our
west, with another day in the 70s in store for southern Indiana and
central Kentucky.  Unsurprisingly, the models have trended this
front slower, and it looks like the daylight hours Tuesday may be
dry, especially east and southeast of Louisville.

The front will then sweep through Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Leaned more on the GFS for this forecast since it has begun to show
some consistency over the past couple of runs.  The EC has varied
quite a bit from run to run, and the operational run doesn`t look
much like the ensemble mean.  Given that, it looks like we should
have a band of showers, and maybe a few rumbles of thunder, pass
through the entire region Tuesday night, with possible redevelopment
over Kentucky on Wednesday.  Given all this, we have reduced PoPs
Tuesday, kept chance PoPs Tuesday night, and increased PoPs on
Wednesday.

No frosts or freezes are expected through the 30th.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The near-term TAF concern continues to be the persistent MVFR
stratus deck near KLEX.  Given northeast flow at this cloud level,
expect this deck to persist at KLEX for at least the next few
hours.  There may be some breaks at times, but will continue a
broken MVFR deck there into the mid-morning hours.

Some shallow ground fog is possible at KBWG this morning.  However,
guidance has come in a bit more optimistic, and depressions are
still at 4 degrees, so will limit any vsby restrictions to just a
TEMPO group with this issuance.

Otherwise, today will feature just some passing high clouds at all
sites with VFR conditions persisting.  Winds will be light and
variable as a surface ridge crosses the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ023>031-038-045-046-053-054-061>066-070>078-081-082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230458
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very persistent strato-cu cloud cover continues over the Bluegrass
this evening. The western edge of these clouds are stationary and
lie along a north south line right around Frankfort. Do not think
that the Bluegrass will clear out until the early morning hours.
Patchy frost is still possible across areas where clearing has
already taken place.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The near-term TAF concern continues to be the persistent MVFR
stratus deck near KLEX.  Given northeast flow at this cloud level,
expect this deck to persist at KLEX for at least the next few
hours.  There may be some breaks at times, but will continue a
broken MVFR deck there into the mid-morning hours.

Some shallow ground fog is possible at KBWG this morning.  However,
guidance has come in a bit more optimistic, and depressions are
still at 4 degrees, so will limit any vsby restrictions to just a
TEMPO group with this issuance.

Otherwise, today will feature just some passing high clouds at all
sites with VFR conditions persisting.  Winds will be light and
variable as a surface ridge crosses the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     this morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-
     081-082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     this morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230458
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very persistent strato-cu cloud cover continues over the Bluegrass
this evening. The western edge of these clouds are stationary and
lie along a north south line right around Frankfort. Do not think
that the Bluegrass will clear out until the early morning hours.
Patchy frost is still possible across areas where clearing has
already taken place.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The near-term TAF concern continues to be the persistent MVFR
stratus deck near KLEX.  Given northeast flow at this cloud level,
expect this deck to persist at KLEX for at least the next few
hours.  There may be some breaks at times, but will continue a
broken MVFR deck there into the mid-morning hours.

Some shallow ground fog is possible at KBWG this morning.  However,
guidance has come in a bit more optimistic, and depressions are
still at 4 degrees, so will limit any vsby restrictions to just a
TEMPO group with this issuance.

Otherwise, today will feature just some passing high clouds at all
sites with VFR conditions persisting.  Winds will be light and
variable as a surface ridge crosses the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     this morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-
     081-082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     this morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230100
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very persistent strato-cu cloud cover continues over the Bluegrass
this evening. The western edge of these clouds are stationary and
lie along a north south line right around Frankfort. Do not think
that the Bluegrass will clear out until the early morning hours.
Patchy frost is still possible across areas where clearing has
already taken place.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Clear skies are expected at SDF and BWG tonight and Thursday with no
obstructions to visibilities.

Persistent low strato-cu continues at LEX, with the west edge of the
cloud shield just to the west of the airport. Ceilings are currently
right near 3k feet, near the MVFR-VFR threshold. Clearing at LEX
will slowly develop this evening with clear skies expected towards
midnight and for much of Thursday.

Expect light northeasterly winds of 5kt or less overnight and
Thursday morning before becoming light and variable by afternoon.
With nearly calm winds expected overnight at BWG and LEX, some light
patchy fog may develop towards morning and bring a possibility of
MVFR visibilities, which will improve shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230100
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very persistent strato-cu cloud cover continues over the Bluegrass
this evening. The western edge of these clouds are stationary and
lie along a north south line right around Frankfort. Do not think
that the Bluegrass will clear out until the early morning hours.
Patchy frost is still possible across areas where clearing has
already taken place.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Clear skies are expected at SDF and BWG tonight and Thursday with no
obstructions to visibilities.

Persistent low strato-cu continues at LEX, with the west edge of the
cloud shield just to the west of the airport. Ceilings are currently
right near 3k feet, near the MVFR-VFR threshold. Clearing at LEX
will slowly develop this evening with clear skies expected towards
midnight and for much of Thursday.

Expect light northeasterly winds of 5kt or less overnight and
Thursday morning before becoming light and variable by afternoon.
With nearly calm winds expected overnight at BWG and LEX, some light
patchy fog may develop towards morning and bring a possibility of
MVFR visibilities, which will improve shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 222319
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
719 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Clear skies are expected at SDF and BWG tonight and Thursday with no
obstructions to visibilities.

Persistent low strato-cu continues at LEX, with the west edge of the
cloud shield just to the west of the airport. Ceilings are currently
right near 3k feet, near the MVFR-VFR threshold. Clearing at LEX
will slowly develop this evening with clear skies expected towards
midnight and for much of Thursday.

Expect light northeasterly winds of 5kt or less overnight and
Thursday morning before becoming light and variable by afternoon.
With nearly calm winds expected overnight at BWG and LEX, some light
patchy fog may develop towards morning and bring a possibility of
MVFR visibilities, which will improve shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221912
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The most immediate TAF concern is at LEX this afternoon as low
clouds continue to remain over the TAF site.  They will likely
bounce between SCT and BKN this afternoon just under 2 kft.  These
low clouds look mostly diurnally driven so do expect them to burn
off around or after sunset with conditions returning to VFR at LEX.
All TAF sites stand a chance at MVFR fog tomorrow morning around
sunrise.  Crossover temps and NAM soundings look favorable, however,
believe the light NE wind overnight will allow slight dry air
advection which should limit fog intensity.  Thus, will continue
MVFR vsbys and monitor environmental conditions closely this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221729
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Updated the forecast to tweak sky cover grids to current satellite
trends.  The Bluegrass should see low clouds through the morning
hours before becoming only partly cloudy.  Also increased high temps
for today since we overachieved on high temps yesterday and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected over the region today.
High temps should range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost likely across the region late tonight...

Cyclonic flow around a stacked low pressure system along the
mid-Atlantic coast is beginning to lose its grip on the Ohio Valley.
One more lobe of low clouds will pinwheel south across the Bluegrass
region this morning, but should give way to pleasant fall conditions
by midday. That will leave us with a temperature forecast for the
balance of the short term, and that is significant due to the
potential for frost tonight.

High pressure centered over Wisconsin this morning will modify
slightly as it builds southeast today, leaving a weaker ridge axis
over Indiana and central Kentucky tonight. This along with clear
skies will mean ideal radiational cooling conditions, allowing temps
to easily drop into the 30s. Look for mainly upper 30s in the cities
and west of I-65, but most rural locations across the Bluegrass
should dip into the mid 30s easily. Can`t even rule out a freeze in
some of the more sheltered valleys. Will go with areas of frost from
the Bluegrass region south to Lake Cumberland, with just patchy
frost across most of the remainder of the area. Based on
coordination with neighboring WFOs, will leave the issuance of any
frost/freeze headlines to the day crew.

Daytime temps will run below climo, but some uncertainty as to just
how much. Temps have overachieved recently, but the shallow cold air
and N-NE flow favors cooler temps. Will still lean toward the warmer
GFS MOS given Tuesday`s overachieving temps to our NW.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

A weak shortwave trof will move through the region at the beginning
of the long term, and may bring a few instances of sprinkles or
light rain to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky late
Thursday night into early Friday morning.  High pressure building to
our south will cut off any substantial moisture supply, though, so
most locations will experience increasing clouds but dry conditions.
Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s, but the eastern
valleys will slip into the upper 30s. Decided to go on the cool side
for high temperatures Friday given expected clouds, but readings
should still peak in the 60s.

Weak surface ridging will give us quiet weather Friday night with
low temperatures in the 40s. On Saturday a cold front will push
through from the northwest, but it will be weakening as it does so
and will be bereft of any deep moisture.  So, the forecast will
remain dry, with highs in the 60s.

Saturday night through Monday night high pressure will travel from
the Red River of the North to Cape Hatteras, continuing our placid
weather.  Low temperatures during this period will moderate from mid
40s to mid 50s, and highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west and bring a chance
of showers, especially by afternoon west through north of
Louisville. Highs will reach the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The most immediate TAF concern is at LEX this afternoon as low
clouds continue to remain over the TAF site.  They will likely
bounce between SCT and BKN this afternoon just under 2 kft.  These
low clouds look mostly diurnally driven so do expect them to burn
off around or after sunset with conditions returning to VFR at LEX.
All TAF sites stand a chance at MVFR fog tomorrow morning around
sunrise.  Crossover temps and NAM soundings look favorable, however,
believe the light NE wind overnight will allow slight dry air
advection which should limit fog intensity.  Thus, will continue
MVFR vsbys and monitor environmental conditions closely this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221729
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Updated the forecast to tweak sky cover grids to current satellite
trends.  The Bluegrass should see low clouds through the morning
hours before becoming only partly cloudy.  Also increased high temps
for today since we overachieved on high temps yesterday and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected over the region today.
High temps should range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost likely across the region late tonight...

Cyclonic flow around a stacked low pressure system along the
mid-Atlantic coast is beginning to lose its grip on the Ohio Valley.
One more lobe of low clouds will pinwheel south across the Bluegrass
region this morning, but should give way to pleasant fall conditions
by midday. That will leave us with a temperature forecast for the
balance of the short term, and that is significant due to the
potential for frost tonight.

High pressure centered over Wisconsin this morning will modify
slightly as it builds southeast today, leaving a weaker ridge axis
over Indiana and central Kentucky tonight. This along with clear
skies will mean ideal radiational cooling conditions, allowing temps
to easily drop into the 30s. Look for mainly upper 30s in the cities
and west of I-65, but most rural locations across the Bluegrass
should dip into the mid 30s easily. Can`t even rule out a freeze in
some of the more sheltered valleys. Will go with areas of frost from
the Bluegrass region south to Lake Cumberland, with just patchy
frost across most of the remainder of the area. Based on
coordination with neighboring WFOs, will leave the issuance of any
frost/freeze headlines to the day crew.

Daytime temps will run below climo, but some uncertainty as to just
how much. Temps have overachieved recently, but the shallow cold air
and N-NE flow favors cooler temps. Will still lean toward the warmer
GFS MOS given Tuesday`s overachieving temps to our NW.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

A weak shortwave trof will move through the region at the beginning
of the long term, and may bring a few instances of sprinkles or
light rain to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky late
Thursday night into early Friday morning.  High pressure building to
our south will cut off any substantial moisture supply, though, so
most locations will experience increasing clouds but dry conditions.
Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s, but the eastern
valleys will slip into the upper 30s. Decided to go on the cool side
for high temperatures Friday given expected clouds, but readings
should still peak in the 60s.

Weak surface ridging will give us quiet weather Friday night with
low temperatures in the 40s. On Saturday a cold front will push
through from the northwest, but it will be weakening as it does so
and will be bereft of any deep moisture.  So, the forecast will
remain dry, with highs in the 60s.

Saturday night through Monday night high pressure will travel from
the Red River of the North to Cape Hatteras, continuing our placid
weather.  Low temperatures during this period will moderate from mid
40s to mid 50s, and highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west and bring a chance
of showers, especially by afternoon west through north of
Louisville. Highs will reach the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The most immediate TAF concern is at LEX this afternoon as low
clouds continue to remain over the TAF site.  They will likely
bounce between SCT and BKN this afternoon just under 2 kft.  These
low clouds look mostly diurnally driven so do expect them to burn
off around or after sunset with conditions returning to VFR at LEX.
All TAF sites stand a chance at MVFR fog tomorrow morning around
sunrise.  Crossover temps and NAM soundings look favorable, however,
believe the light NE wind overnight will allow slight dry air
advection which should limit fog intensity.  Thus, will continue
MVFR vsbys and monitor environmental conditions closely this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221400
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Updated the forecast to tweak sky cover grids to current satellite
trends.  The Bluegrass should see low clouds through the morning
hours before becoming only partly cloudy.  Also increased high temps
for today since we overachieved on high temps yesterday and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected over the region today.
High temps should range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost likely across the region late tonight...

Cyclonic flow around a stacked low pressure system along the
mid-Atlantic coast is beginning to lose its grip on the Ohio Valley.
One more lobe of low clouds will pinwheel south across the Bluegrass
region this morning, but should give way to pleasant fall conditions
by midday. That will leave us with a temperature forecast for the
balance of the short term, and that is significant due to the
potential for frost tonight.

High pressure centered over Wisconsin this morning will modify
slightly as it builds southeast today, leaving a weaker ridge axis
over Indiana and central Kentucky tonight. This along with clear
skies will mean ideal radiational cooling conditions, allowing temps
to easily drop into the 30s. Look for mainly upper 30s in the cities
and west of I-65, but most rural locations across the Bluegrass
should dip into the mid 30s easily. Can`t even rule out a freeze in
some of the more sheltered valleys. Will go with areas of frost from
the Bluegrass region south to Lake Cumberland, with just patchy
frost across most of the remainder of the area. Based on
coordination with neighboring WFOs, will leave the issuance of any
frost/freeze headlines to the day crew.

Daytime temps will run below climo, but some uncertainty as to just
how much. Temps have overachieved recently, but the shallow cold air
and N-NE flow favors cooler temps. Will still lean toward the warmer
GFS MOS given Tuesday`s overachieving temps to our NW.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

A weak shortwave trof will move through the region at the beginning
of the long term, and may bring a few instances of sprinkles or
light rain to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky late
Thursday night into early Friday morning.  High pressure building to
our south will cut off any substantial moisture supply, though, so
most locations will experience increasing clouds but dry conditions.
Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s, but the eastern
valleys will slip into the upper 30s. Decided to go on the cool side
for high temperatures Friday given expected clouds, but readings
should still peak in the 60s.

Weak surface ridging will give us quiet weather Friday night with
low temperatures in the 40s. On Saturday a cold front will push
through from the northwest, but it will be weakening as it does so
and will be bereft of any deep moisture.  So, the forecast will
remain dry, with highs in the 60s.

Saturday night through Monday night high pressure will travel from
the Red River of the North to Cape Hatteras, continuing our placid
weather.  Low temperatures during this period will moderate from mid
40s to mid 50s, and highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west and bring a chance
of showers, especially by afternoon west through north of
Louisville. Highs will reach the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Prevailing VFR conditions and light N-NE winds are expected through
the valid TAF period, with just a couple of caveats. First issue in
the near term is one last lobe of strato-cu pinwheeling south into
central Kentucky. Expect LEX and possibly SDF to get a barely-VFR
ceiling by issuance time. Can`t rule out high-end MVFR in LEX based
on upstream obs, but will keep it VFR unless it shows its hand
before issuance. Look for clearing by mid-morning at SDF and late
morning at LEX as upper ridging starts to win out.

Other issue is the potential for fog just before daybreak Thursday.
MOS guidance shows dense fog at all three terminals, and given that
crossover temps are likely to be reached, can`t discount this
solution. Won`t jump on board with dense fog without seeing what
afternoon mixing does for dewpoints, but will carry a TEMPO for
borderline MVFR/IFR visibilities as a heads-up.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221034
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
634 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost likely across the region late tonight...

Cyclonic flow around a stacked low pressure system along the
mid-Atlantic coast is beginning to lose its grip on the Ohio Valley.
One more lobe of low clouds will pinwheel south across the Bluegrass
region this morning, but should give way to pleasant fall conditions
by midday. That will leave us with a temperature forecast for the
balance of the short term, and that is significant due to the
potential for frost tonight.

High pressure centered over Wisconsin this morning will modify
slightly as it builds southeast today, leaving a weaker ridge axis
over Indiana and central Kentucky tonight. This along with clear
skies will mean ideal radiational cooling conditions, allowing temps
to easily drop into the 30s. Look for mainly upper 30s in the cities
and west of I-65, but most rural locations across the Bluegrass
should dip into the mid 30s easily. Can`t even rule out a freeze in
some of the more sheltered valleys. Will go with areas of frost from
the Bluegrass region south to Lake Cumberland, with just patchy
frost across most of the remainder of the area. Based on
coordination with neighboring WFOs, will leave the issuance of any
frost/freeze headlines to the day crew.

Daytime temps will run below climo, but some uncertainty as to just
how much. Temps have overachieved recently, but the shallow cold air
and N-NE flow favors cooler temps. Will still lean toward the warmer
GFS MOS given Tuesday`s overachieving temps to our NW.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

A weak shortwave trof will move through the region at the beginning
of the long term, and may bring a few instances of sprinkles or
light rain to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky late
Thursday night into early Friday morning.  High pressure building to
our south will cut off any substantial moisture supply, though, so
most locations will experience increasing clouds but dry conditions.
Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s, but the eastern
valleys will slip into the upper 30s. Decided to go on the cool side
for high temperatures Friday given expected clouds, but readings
should still peak in the 60s.

Weak surface ridging will give us quiet weather Friday night with
low temperatures in the 40s. On Saturday a cold front will push
through from the northwest, but it will be weakening as it does so
and will be bereft of any deep moisture.  So, the forecast will
remain dry, with highs in the 60s.

Saturday night through Monday night high pressure will travel from
the Red River of the North to Cape Hatteras, continuing our placid
weather.  Low temperatures during this period will moderate from mid
40s to mid 50s, and highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west and bring a chance
of showers, especially by afternoon west through north of
Louisville. Highs will reach the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Prevailing VFR conditions and light N-NE winds are expected through
the valid TAF period, with just a couple of caveats. First issue in
the near term is one last lobe of strato-cu pinwheeling south into
central Kentucky. Expect LEX and possibly SDF to get a barely-VFR
ceiling by issuance time. Can`t rule out high-end MVFR in LEX based
on upstream obs, but will keep it VFR unless it shows its hand
before issuance. Look for clearing by mid-morning at SDF and late
morning at LEX as upper ridging starts to win out.

Other issue is the potential for fog just before daybreak Thursday.
MOS guidance shows dense fog at all three terminals, and given that
crossover temps are likely to be reached, can`t discount this
solution. Won`t jump on board with dense fog without seeing what
afternoon mixing does for dewpoints, but will carry a TEMPO for
borderline MVFR/IFR visibilities as a heads-up.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220715
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost likely across the region late tonight...

Cyclonic flow around a stacked low pressure system along the
mid-Atlantic coast is beginning to lose its grip on the Ohio Valley.
One more lobe of low clouds will pinwheel south across the Bluegrass
region this morning, but should give way to pleasant fall conditions
by midday. That will leave us with a temperature forecast for the
balance of the short term, and that is significant due to the
potential for frost tonight.

High pressure centered over Wisconsin this morning will modify
slightly as it builds southeast today, leaving a weaker ridge axis
over Indiana and central Kentucky tonight. This along with clear
skies will mean ideal radiational cooling conditions, allowing temps
to easily drop into the 30s. Look for mainly upper 30s in the cities
and west of I-65, but most rural locations across the Bluegrass
should dip into the mid 30s easily. Can`t even rule out a freeze in
some of the more sheltered valleys. Will go with areas of frost from
the Bluegrass region south to Lake Cumberland, with just patchy
frost across most of the remainder of the area. Based on
coordination with neighboring WFOs, will leave the issuance of any
frost/freeze headlines to the day crew.

Daytime temps will run below climo, but some uncertainty as to just
how much. Temps have overachieved recently, but the shallow cold air
and N-NE flow favors cooler temps. Will still lean toward the warmer
GFS MOS given Tuesday`s overachieving temps to our NW.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

A weak shortwave trof will move through the region at the beginning
of the long term, and may bring a few instances of sprinkles or
light rain to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky late
Thursday night into early Friday morning.  High pressure building to
our south will cut off any substantial moisture supply, though, so
most locations will experience increasing clouds but dry conditions.
Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s, but the eastern
valleys will slip into the upper 30s. Decided to go on the cool side
for high temperatures Friday given expected clouds, but readings
should still peak in the 60s.

Weak surface ridging will give us quiet weather Friday night with
low temperatures in the 40s. On Saturday a cold front will push
through from the northwest, but it will be weakening as it does so
and will be bereft of any deep moisture.  So, the forecast will
remain dry, with highs in the 60s.

Saturday night through Monday night high pressure will travel from
the Red River of the North to Cape Hatteras, continuing our placid
weather.  Low temperatures during this period will moderate from mid
40s to mid 50s, and highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west and bring a chance
of showers, especially by afternoon west through north of
Louisville. Highs will reach the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The western edge of a broad area of strato-cu extends across Indiana
and central Kentucky, and has been slowly eroding from the west and
south. LEX is the one sure bet to maintain a ceiling through the
night, but it is initially VFR. However, lower strato-cu with MVFR
ceilings lurks over western Ohio, and models suggest that these
lower clouds could pinwheel southward into LEX shortly before
daybreak. Look for a few hours of MVFR ceiling, but will stay above
fuel-alternate thresholds. SDF will be a last-minute decision
whether we even carry a ceiling.

At BWG the bigger question is fog. Looks like we are well on track
to cross over afternoon dewpoints, but with drier air filtering in
and light north winds that might not stay completely calm, there is
some uncertainty. Believe that there will be fog, but it should be
less dense and less persistent than what we had Tuesday morning.
Will carry a TEMPO for IFR conditions.

Once mixing gets going around mid-morning, look for VFR conditions
and unlimited ceilings for the rest of the TAF period. Light north
winds and diurnal cu will diminish around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220451
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1251 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cloud cover will be the only challenge in the forecast for tonight
and Wednesday. Louisville is on the southwestern edge of a slowly
eroding strato-cu shield that extends all the way back through
Pennsylvania. Skies will slowly become partly cloudy overnight at
Louisville, with mostly clear skies expected at Bowling Green, and
with Lexington probably remaining mostly cloudy through Wednesday
morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Frost potential increasing for Wednesday Night...

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
cyclonic flow with deep upper level trough across the eastern CONUS.
Altostratus deck exists across much of IN and central into eastern
KY thanks to cooler air aloft steepening lower level lapse rates. As
surface heating wanes later this afternoon, the periphery of this
cloud deck, which is more cellular, is expected to dissipate as main
upper level cyclonic flow shifts to the east.

At the surface, high pressure centered across Wisconsin will begin
to slowly shift southeastward toward the area tonight, which is
expected to keep the western forecast area mostly clear. However,
clouds will be slow to erode across the eastern areas thanks to the
influence from the upper level trough. Plan on seasonably cool
temperatures tonight with lows ranging across the area from the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

For Wednesday, look for pleasant but seasonably cool October
conditions as high pressure centers itself across the Ohio River
valley. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs ranging
from the upper 50s in the east to lower 60s across the southwest
forecast area. Winds will be light and out of the north.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the coolest night of the
entire forecast period as the surface high will be positioned over
the forecast area. This will provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions and Thursday morning lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30s. With light winds and the seasonably cool
airmass in place, patchy to areas of frost look likely. The favored
areas appear to be the eastern forecast area where temperatures may
approach the freezing mark. Otherwise, lows look to vary from the
lower to middle 30s. Frost advisories may be needed for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions of the forecast area if
confidence continues to increase.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

After a chilly start to the day temperatures will remain on the cool
side Thursday, topping out in the lower 60s despite quite a bit of
sunshine. For Thursday night into Friday a shortwave will drop
southeast through the northwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation with
this system will be weakening as it approaches the area. However,
most of the models now show at least a slight chance for showers
across southern IN and north central KY Thursday night so will
increase pops to around 20% in this area. The strength of the
shortwave varies from model to model and if it does trend towards
the stronger side, a chance for light showers may eventually need to
be added for Friday as well.

Beyond Friday, upper level ridging will be building in across the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will bring
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with warming temperatures
through Monday. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s while
Monday`s highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will
increase from the lower to mid 40s Friday morning to the lower to
mid 50s Tuesday morning. The next chance for rain will come Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The western edge of a broad area of strato-cu extends across Indiana
and central Kentucky, and has been slowly eroding from the west and
south. LEX is the one sure bet to maintain a ceiling through the
night, but it is initially VFR. However, lower strato-cu with MVFR
ceilings lurks over western Ohio, and models suggest that these
lower clouds could pinwheel southward into LEX shortly before
daybreak. Look for a few hours of MVFR ceiling, but will stay above
fuel-alternate thresholds. SDF will be a last-minute decision
whether we even carry a ceiling.

At BWG the bigger question is fog. Looks like we are well on track
to cross over afternoon dewpoints, but with drier air filtering in
and light north winds that might not stay completely calm, there is
some uncertainty. Believe that there will be fog, but it should be
less dense and less persistent than what we had Tuesday morning.
Will carry a TEMPO for IFR conditions.

Once mixing gets going around mid-morning, look for VFR conditions
and unlimited ceilings for the rest of the TAF period. Light north
winds and diurnal cu will diminish around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220451
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1251 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cloud cover will be the only challenge in the forecast for tonight
and Wednesday. Louisville is on the southwestern edge of a slowly
eroding strato-cu shield that extends all the way back through
Pennsylvania. Skies will slowly become partly cloudy overnight at
Louisville, with mostly clear skies expected at Bowling Green, and
with Lexington probably remaining mostly cloudy through Wednesday
morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Frost potential increasing for Wednesday Night...

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
cyclonic flow with deep upper level trough across the eastern CONUS.
Altostratus deck exists across much of IN and central into eastern
KY thanks to cooler air aloft steepening lower level lapse rates. As
surface heating wanes later this afternoon, the periphery of this
cloud deck, which is more cellular, is expected to dissipate as main
upper level cyclonic flow shifts to the east.

At the surface, high pressure centered across Wisconsin will begin
to slowly shift southeastward toward the area tonight, which is
expected to keep the western forecast area mostly clear. However,
clouds will be slow to erode across the eastern areas thanks to the
influence from the upper level trough. Plan on seasonably cool
temperatures tonight with lows ranging across the area from the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

For Wednesday, look for pleasant but seasonably cool October
conditions as high pressure centers itself across the Ohio River
valley. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs ranging
from the upper 50s in the east to lower 60s across the southwest
forecast area. Winds will be light and out of the north.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the coolest night of the
entire forecast period as the surface high will be positioned over
the forecast area. This will provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions and Thursday morning lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30s. With light winds and the seasonably cool
airmass in place, patchy to areas of frost look likely. The favored
areas appear to be the eastern forecast area where temperatures may
approach the freezing mark. Otherwise, lows look to vary from the
lower to middle 30s. Frost advisories may be needed for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions of the forecast area if
confidence continues to increase.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

After a chilly start to the day temperatures will remain on the cool
side Thursday, topping out in the lower 60s despite quite a bit of
sunshine. For Thursday night into Friday a shortwave will drop
southeast through the northwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation with
this system will be weakening as it approaches the area. However,
most of the models now show at least a slight chance for showers
across southern IN and north central KY Thursday night so will
increase pops to around 20% in this area. The strength of the
shortwave varies from model to model and if it does trend towards
the stronger side, a chance for light showers may eventually need to
be added for Friday as well.

Beyond Friday, upper level ridging will be building in across the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will bring
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with warming temperatures
through Monday. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s while
Monday`s highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will
increase from the lower to mid 40s Friday morning to the lower to
mid 50s Tuesday morning. The next chance for rain will come Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The western edge of a broad area of strato-cu extends across Indiana
and central Kentucky, and has been slowly eroding from the west and
south. LEX is the one sure bet to maintain a ceiling through the
night, but it is initially VFR. However, lower strato-cu with MVFR
ceilings lurks over western Ohio, and models suggest that these
lower clouds could pinwheel southward into LEX shortly before
daybreak. Look for a few hours of MVFR ceiling, but will stay above
fuel-alternate thresholds. SDF will be a last-minute decision
whether we even carry a ceiling.

At BWG the bigger question is fog. Looks like we are well on track
to cross over afternoon dewpoints, but with drier air filtering in
and light north winds that might not stay completely calm, there is
some uncertainty. Believe that there will be fog, but it should be
less dense and less persistent than what we had Tuesday morning.
Will carry a TEMPO for IFR conditions.

Once mixing gets going around mid-morning, look for VFR conditions
and unlimited ceilings for the rest of the TAF period. Light north
winds and diurnal cu will diminish around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 212343
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
743 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated both Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cloud cover will be the only challenge in the forecast for tonight
and Wednesday. Louisville is on the southwestern edge of a slowly
eroding strato-cu shield that extends all the way back through
Pennsylvania. Skies will slowly become partly cloudy overnight at
Louisville, with mostly clear skies expected at Bowling Green, and
with Lexington probably remaining mostly cloudy through Wednesday
morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Frost potential increasing for Wednesday Night...

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
cyclonic flow with deep upper level trough across the eastern CONUS.
Altostratus deck exists across much of IN and central into eastern
KY thanks to cooler air aloft steepening lower level lapse rates. As
surface heating wanes later this afternoon, the periphery of this
cloud deck, which is more cellular, is expected to dissipate as main
upper level cyclonic flow shifts to the east.

At the surface, high pressure centered across Wisconsin will begin
to slowly shift southeastward toward the area tonight, which is
expected to keep the western forecast area mostly clear. However,
clouds will be slow to erode across the eastern areas thanks to the
influence from the upper level trough. Plan on seasonably cool
temperatures tonight with lows ranging across the area from the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

For Wednesday, look for pleasant but seasonably cool October
conditions as high pressure centers itself across the Ohio River
valley. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs ranging
from the upper 50s in the east to lower 60s across the southwest
forecast area. Winds will be light and out of the north.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the coolest night of the
entire forecast period as the surface high will be positioned over
the forecast area. This will provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions and Thursday morning lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30s. With light winds and the seasonably cool
airmass in place, patchy to areas of frost look likely. The favored
areas appear to be the eastern forecast area where temperatures may
approach the freezing mark. Otherwise, lows look to vary from the
lower to middle 30s. Frost advisories may be needed for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions of the forecast area if
confidence continues to increase.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

After a chilly start to the day temperatures will remain on the cool
side Thursday, topping out in the lower 60s despite quite a bit of
sunshine. For Thursday night into Friday a shortwave will drop
southeast through the northwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation with
this system will be weakening as it approaches the area. However,
most of the models now show at least a slight chance for showers
across southern IN and north central KY Thursday night so will
increase pops to around 20% in this area. The strength of the
shortwave varies from model to model and if it does trend towards
the stronger side, a chance for light showers may eventually need to
be added for Friday as well.

Beyond Friday, upper level ridging will be building in across the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will bring
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with warming temperatures
through Monday. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s while
Monday`s highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will
increase from the lower to mid 40s Friday morning to the lower to
mid 50s Tuesday morning. The next chance for rain will come Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

The western edge of an expansive area of strato-cu lies near
Louisville and will only erode to the northeast a little bit
overnight.

Clear skies tonight expected at BWG and mostly sunny skies are on
tap for Wednesday.

Mostly cloudy skies this evening at SDF will give way to partly
cloudy skies after midnight. Partly cloudy skies expected Wednesday.

For LEX, ceilings will be slowest to lift. Mostly cloudy skies for
tonight through early Wednesday are expected with ceilings remaining
above the MVFR threshold. Partly cloudy skies will likely develop at
LEX by late morning.

Northerly winds will continue tonight and Wednesday at around 5 to
8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 212308
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
708 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Frost potential increasing for Wednesday Night...

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
cyclonic flow with deep upper level trough across the eastern CONUS.
Altostratus deck exists across much of IN and central into eastern
KY thanks to cooler air aloft steepening lower level lapse rates. As
surface heating wanes later this afternoon, the periphery of this
cloud deck, which is more cellular, is expected to dissipate as main
upper level cyclonic flow shifts to the east.

At the surface, high pressure centered across Wisconsin will begin
to slowly shift southeastward toward the area tonight, which is
expected to keep the western forecast area mostly clear. However,
clouds will be slow to erode across the eastern areas thanks to the
influence from the upper level trough. Plan on seasonably cool
temperatures tonight with lows ranging across the area from the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

For Wednesday, look for pleasant but seasonably cool October
conditions as high pressure centers itself across the Ohio River
valley. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs ranging
from the upper 50s in the east to lower 60s across the southwest
forecast area. Winds will be light and out of the north.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the coolest night of the
entire forecast period as the surface high will be positioned over
the forecast area. This will provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions and Thursday morning lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30s. With light winds and the seasonably cool
airmass in place, patchy to areas of frost look likely. The favored
areas appear to be the eastern forecast area where temperatures may
approach the freezing mark. Otherwise, lows look to vary from the
lower to middle 30s. Frost advisories may be needed for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions of the forecast area if
confidence continues to increase.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

After a chilly start to the day temperatures will remain on the cool
side Thursday, topping out in the lower 60s despite quite a bit of
sunshine. For Thursday night into Friday a shortwave will drop
southeast through the northwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation with
this system will be weakening as it approaches the area. However,
most of the models now show at least a slight chance for showers
across southern IN and north central KY Thursday night so will
increase pops to around 20% in this area. The strength of the
shortwave varies from model to model and if it does trend towards
the stronger side, a chance for light showers may eventually need to
be added for Friday as well.

Beyond Friday, upper level ridging will be building in across the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will bring
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with warming temperatures
through Monday. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s while
Monday`s highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will
increase from the lower to mid 40s Friday morning to the lower to
mid 50s Tuesday morning. The next chance for rain will come Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

The western edge of an expansive area of strato-cu lies near
Louisville and will only erode to the northeast a little bit
overnight.

Clear skies tonight expected at BWG and mostly sunny skies are on
tap for Wednesday.

Mostly cloudy skies this evening at SDF will give way to partly
cloudy skies after midnight. Partly cloudy skies expected Wednesday.

For LEX, ceilings will be slowest to lift. Mostly cloudy skies for
tonight through early Wednesday are expected with ceilings remaining
above the MVFR threshold. Partly cloudy skies will likely develop at
LEX by late morning.

Northerly winds will continue tonight and Wednesday at around 5 to
8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 212308
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
708 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Frost potential increasing for Wednesday Night...

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
cyclonic flow with deep upper level trough across the eastern CONUS.
Altostratus deck exists across much of IN and central into eastern
KY thanks to cooler air aloft steepening lower level lapse rates. As
surface heating wanes later this afternoon, the periphery of this
cloud deck, which is more cellular, is expected to dissipate as main
upper level cyclonic flow shifts to the east.

At the surface, high pressure centered across Wisconsin will begin
to slowly shift southeastward toward the area tonight, which is
expected to keep the western forecast area mostly clear. However,
clouds will be slow to erode across the eastern areas thanks to the
influence from the upper level trough. Plan on seasonably cool
temperatures tonight with lows ranging across the area from the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

For Wednesday, look for pleasant but seasonably cool October
conditions as high pressure centers itself across the Ohio River
valley. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs ranging
from the upper 50s in the east to lower 60s across the southwest
forecast area. Winds will be light and out of the north.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the coolest night of the
entire forecast period as the surface high will be positioned over
the forecast area. This will provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions and Thursday morning lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30s. With light winds and the seasonably cool
airmass in place, patchy to areas of frost look likely. The favored
areas appear to be the eastern forecast area where temperatures may
approach the freezing mark. Otherwise, lows look to vary from the
lower to middle 30s. Frost advisories may be needed for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions of the forecast area if
confidence continues to increase.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

After a chilly start to the day temperatures will remain on the cool
side Thursday, topping out in the lower 60s despite quite a bit of
sunshine. For Thursday night into Friday a shortwave will drop
southeast through the northwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation with
this system will be weakening as it approaches the area. However,
most of the models now show at least a slight chance for showers
across southern IN and north central KY Thursday night so will
increase pops to around 20% in this area. The strength of the
shortwave varies from model to model and if it does trend towards
the stronger side, a chance for light showers may eventually need to
be added for Friday as well.

Beyond Friday, upper level ridging will be building in across the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will bring
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with warming temperatures
through Monday. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s while
Monday`s highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will
increase from the lower to mid 40s Friday morning to the lower to
mid 50s Tuesday morning. The next chance for rain will come Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

The western edge of an expansive area of strato-cu lies near
Louisville and will only erode to the northeast a little bit
overnight.

Clear skies tonight expected at BWG and mostly sunny skies are on
tap for Wednesday.

Mostly cloudy skies this evening at SDF will give way to partly
cloudy skies after midnight. Partly cloudy skies expected Wednesday.

For LEX, ceilings will be slowest to lift. Mostly cloudy skies for
tonight through early Wednesday are expected with ceilings remaining
above the MVFR threshold. Partly cloudy skies will likely develop at
LEX by late morning.

Northerly winds will continue tonight and Wednesday at around 5 to
8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211929
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Frost potential increasing for Wednesday Night...

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
cyclonic flow with deep upper level trough across the eastern CONUS.
Altostratus deck exists across much of IN and central into eastern
KY thanks to cooler air aloft steepening lower level lapse rates. As
surface heating wanes later this afternoon, the periphery of this
cloud deck, which is more cellular, is expected to dissipate as main
upper level cyclonic flow shifts to the east.

At the surface, high pressure centered across Wisconsin will begin
to slowly shift southeastward toward the area tonight, which is
expected to keep the western forecast area mostly clear. However,
clouds will be slow to erode across the eastern areas thanks to the
influence from the upper level trough. Plan on seasonably cool
temperatures tonight with lows ranging across the area from the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

For Wednesday, look for pleasant but seasonably cool October
conditions as high pressure centers itself across the Ohio River
valley. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs ranging
from the upper 50s in the east to lower 60s across the southwest
forecast area. Winds will be light and out of the north.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the coolest night of the
entire forecast period as the surface high will be positioned over
the forecast area. This will provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions and Thursday morning lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30s. With light winds and the seasonably cool
airmass in place, patchy to areas of frost look likely. The favored
areas appear to be the eastern forecast area where temperatures may
approach the freezing mark. Otherwise, lows look to vary from the
lower to middle 30s. Frost advisories may be needed for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions of the forecast area if
confidence continues to increase.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

After a chilly start to the day temperatures will remain on the cool
side Thursday, topping out in the lower 60s despite quite a bit of
sunshine. For Thursday night into Friday a shortwave will drop
southeast through the northwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation with
this system will be weakening as it approaches the area. However,
most of the models now show at least a slight chance for showers
across southern IN and north central KY Thursday night so will
increase pops to around 20% in this area. The strength of the
shortwave varies from model to model and if it does trend towards
the stronger side, a chance for light showers may eventually need to
be added for Friday as well.

Beyond Friday, upper level ridging will be building in across the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will bring
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with warming temperatures
through Monday. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s while
Monday`s highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will
increase from the lower to mid 40s Friday morning to the lower to
mid 50s Tuesday morning. The next chance for rain will come Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 140 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Latest visible satellite shows large expanse of altostratus with
bases in the 4 to 5 kft range with cyclonic flow at the surface and
aloft. For SDF, plan on VFR conditions throughout the period with
cloud deck dissipating later this evening. LEX will remain closer to
stronger cyclonic flow and likely to remain within stratus deck
through the night. Forecast guidance suggests a possibility of
broken ceilings lowering to MVFR but confidence was not high enough
at this time to include. At BWG, trended previous forecast of IFR
fog to MVFR as guidance suggests winds may remain high enough to
preclude fog development. Cooler and drier air thanks to northerly
flow on Wednesday from late morning into the afternoon is expected
to keep skies clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211740
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
140 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Removed morning rain shower chances.  Still believe there may be a
brief window of opportunity for sprinkles over southeast Indiana and
the northern Bluegrass region during the afternoon hours, but not
expecting any location to receive more that a trace of precip so
removed 20% POP.  According to the latest short range model guidance
and satellite trends, low clouds should continue to sink south into
our region throughout the day providing for a mostly cloudy day over
most areas.  The only exception may be in the Bowling Green area
which will be on the edge of the stratus deck.  Right now think BWG
will stay mostly sunny but some low clouds could work into area.
Updated the temp forecast to reflect the changes in cloud cover
going colder over most of the forecast region.  Highs should end up
in the mid 50 to mid 60s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 140 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Latest visible satellite shows large expanse of altostratus and
bases in the 4 to 5 kft range with cyclonic flow at the surface
and aloft. For SDF, plan on VFR conditions throughout the period
with cloud deck dissipating later this evening. LEX will remain
closer to stronger cyclonic flow and likely to remain within
stratus deck through the night. Forecast guidance suggests a
possibility of broken ceilings lowering to MVFR but confidence was
not high enough at this time to include. At BWG, trended previous
forecast of IFR fog to MVFR as guidance suggests winds may remain
high enough to preclude fog development. Cooler and drier air
thanks to northerly flow on Wednesday from late morning into the
afternoon is expected to keep skies clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......ZBT







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211410
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1010 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Removed morning rain shower chances.  Still believe there may be a
brief window of opportunity for sprinkles over southeast Indiana and
the northern Bluegrass region during the afternoon hours, but not
expecting any location to receive more that a trace of precip so
removed 20% POP.  According to the latest short range model guidance
and satellite trends, low clouds should continue to sink south into
our region throughout the day providing for a mostly cloudy day over
most areas.  The only exception may be in the Bowling Green area
which will be on the edge of the stratus deck.  Right now think BWG
will stay mostly sunny but some low clouds could work into area.
Updated the temp forecast to reflect the changes in cloud cover
going colder over most of the forecast region.  Highs should end up
in the mid 50 to mid 60s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front slowly making its way SE across Kentucky is quite
difficult to pick out in the surface obs. Strato-cu deck ihas pushed
into LEX and will soon get into SDF, but higher than previously
advertised and will stay solidly VFR. Main challenge this morning
will be how long the fog stays in BWG.

Even high-resolution guidance has struggled to catch on to the fog
at BWG. Will fall back on a bit of climo in keeping restrictions to
vis through 14-15Z, but will be a last-minute call as to just how
poor visibility will be. First guess would be prevailing IFR/MVFR
with TEMPO for vis dropping to field mins.

Once the fog dissipates at BWG expect VFR through the day, but will
keep a strato-cu ceiling in SDF and LEX. Winds will be NNW behind
the front, but the cold advection push is weak enough that speeds
will hold just under 10 kt. Skies will clear and winds will decouple
after sunset. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in, but
drying will be just slow enough that we will keep a TEMPO for IFR
visibility at BWG toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211410
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1010 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Removed morning rain shower chances.  Still believe there may be a
brief window of opportunity for sprinkles over southeast Indiana and
the northern Bluegrass region during the afternoon hours, but not
expecting any location to receive more that a trace of precip so
removed 20% POP.  According to the latest short range model guidance
and satellite trends, low clouds should continue to sink south into
our region throughout the day providing for a mostly cloudy day over
most areas.  The only exception may be in the Bowling Green area
which will be on the edge of the stratus deck.  Right now think BWG
will stay mostly sunny but some low clouds could work into area.
Updated the temp forecast to reflect the changes in cloud cover
going colder over most of the forecast region.  Highs should end up
in the mid 50 to mid 60s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front slowly making its way SE across Kentucky is quite
difficult to pick out in the surface obs. Strato-cu deck ihas pushed
into LEX and will soon get into SDF, but higher than previously
advertised and will stay solidly VFR. Main challenge this morning
will be how long the fog stays in BWG.

Even high-resolution guidance has struggled to catch on to the fog
at BWG. Will fall back on a bit of climo in keeping restrictions to
vis through 14-15Z, but will be a last-minute call as to just how
poor visibility will be. First guess would be prevailing IFR/MVFR
with TEMPO for vis dropping to field mins.

Once the fog dissipates at BWG expect VFR through the day, but will
keep a strato-cu ceiling in SDF and LEX. Winds will be NNW behind
the front, but the cold advection push is weak enough that speeds
will hold just under 10 kt. Skies will clear and winds will decouple
after sunset. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in, but
drying will be just slow enough that we will keep a TEMPO for IFR
visibility at BWG toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front slowly making its way SE across Kentucky is quite
difficult to pick out in the surface obs. Strato-cu deck ihas pushed
into LEX and will soon get into SDF, but higher than previously
advertised and will stay solidly VFR. Main challenge this morning
will be how long the fog stays in BWG.

Even high-resolution guidance has struggled to catch on to the fog
at BWG. Will fall back on a bit of climo in keeping restrictions to
vis through 14-15Z, but will be a last-minute call as to just how
poor visibility will be. First guess would be prevailing IFR/MVFR
with TEMPO for vis dropping to field mins.

Once the fog dissipates at BWG expect VFR through the day, but will
keep a strato-cu ceiling in SDF and LEX. Winds will be NNW behind
the front, but the cold advection push is weak enough that speeds
will hold just under 10 kt. Skies will clear and winds will decouple
after sunset. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in, but
drying will be just slow enough that we will keep a TEMPO for IFR
visibility at BWG toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front slowly making its way SE across Kentucky is quite
difficult to pick out in the surface obs. Strato-cu deck ihas pushed
into LEX and will soon get into SDF, but higher than previously
advertised and will stay solidly VFR. Main challenge this morning
will be how long the fog stays in BWG.

Even high-resolution guidance has struggled to catch on to the fog
at BWG. Will fall back on a bit of climo in keeping restrictions to
vis through 14-15Z, but will be a last-minute call as to just how
poor visibility will be. First guess would be prevailing IFR/MVFR
with TEMPO for vis dropping to field mins.

Once the fog dissipates at BWG expect VFR through the day, but will
keep a strato-cu ceiling in SDF and LEX. Winds will be NNW behind
the front, but the cold advection push is weak enough that speeds
will hold just under 10 kt. Skies will clear and winds will decouple
after sunset. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in, but
drying will be just slow enough that we will keep a TEMPO for IFR
visibility at BWG toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front slowly making its way SE across Kentucky is quite
difficult to pick out in the surface obs. Strato-cu deck ihas pushed
into LEX and will soon get into SDF, but higher than previously
advertised and will stay solidly VFR. Main challenge this morning
will be how long the fog stays in BWG.

Even high-resolution guidance has struggled to catch on to the fog
at BWG. Will fall back on a bit of climo in keeping restrictions to
vis through 14-15Z, but will be a last-minute call as to just how
poor visibility will be. First guess would be prevailing IFR/MVFR
with TEMPO for vis dropping to field mins.

Once the fog dissipates at BWG expect VFR through the day, but will
keep a strato-cu ceiling in SDF and LEX. Winds will be NNW behind
the front, but the cold advection push is weak enough that speeds
will hold just under 10 kt. Skies will clear and winds will decouple
after sunset. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in, but
drying will be just slow enough that we will keep a TEMPO for IFR
visibility at BWG toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front slowly making its way SE across Kentucky is quite
difficult to pick out in the surface obs. Strato-cu deck ihas pushed
into LEX and will soon get into SDF, but higher than previously
advertised and will stay solidly VFR. Main challenge this morning
will be how long the fog stays in BWG.

Even high-resolution guidance has struggled to catch on to the fog
at BWG. Will fall back on a bit of climo in keeping restrictions to
vis through 14-15Z, but will be a last-minute call as to just how
poor visibility will be. First guess would be prevailing IFR/MVFR
with TEMPO for vis dropping to field mins.

Once the fog dissipates at BWG expect VFR through the day, but will
keep a strato-cu ceiling in SDF and LEX. Winds will be NNW behind
the front, but the cold advection push is weak enough that speeds
will hold just under 10 kt. Skies will clear and winds will decouple
after sunset. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in, but
drying will be just slow enough that we will keep a TEMPO for IFR
visibility at BWG toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210712
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Weak cold front is slow to progress past the Ohio River, but will
gradually push south across Kentucky overnight. Light SW winds will
veer to NW or even N by daybreak. Main source of uncertainty is how
far south the strato-cu deck over Indiana and Ohio can build. At
this point expect it to build into SDF and LEX, but BWG will remain
mostly clear. Kept the ceilings VFR, but just barely so at LEX. Even
if LEX does go MVFR expect it to stay above fuel-alternate
thresholds.

High pressure builds from the north during the daytime on Tuesday,
but without a strong push will keep wind speeds just under 10 kt.
VFR strato-cu ceiling will persist at SDF and LEX, but could scatter
out later in the afternoon. Light north winds and clearing skies
expected in the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 210712
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Weak cold front is slow to progress past the Ohio River, but will
gradually push south across Kentucky overnight. Light SW winds will
veer to NW or even N by daybreak. Main source of uncertainty is how
far south the strato-cu deck over Indiana and Ohio can build. At
this point expect it to build into SDF and LEX, but BWG will remain
mostly clear. Kept the ceilings VFR, but just barely so at LEX. Even
if LEX does go MVFR expect it to stay above fuel-alternate
thresholds.

High pressure builds from the north during the daytime on Tuesday,
but without a strong push will keep wind speeds just under 10 kt.
VFR strato-cu ceiling will persist at SDF and LEX, but could scatter
out later in the afternoon. Light north winds and clearing skies
expected in the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210544
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
144 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers have developed along a weak frontal boundary moving
south along the Ohio River. The most concentrated area of rain is
actually right over Louisville, soon to move into Shelby and Spencer
counties. Currently, only some light sprinkles are apparent over the
Bluegrass and west central Kentucky. Showers will move southeast of
Louisville well before nine thirty this evening. For the rest of
this evening, southern Indiana will stay dry with isolated showers
continuing across central Kentucky and eventually, the southern
Bluegrass if these showers currently exiting Louisville hold
together.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 140 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Weak cold front is slow to progress past the Ohio River, but will
gradually push south across Kentucky overnight. Light SW winds will
veer to NW or even N by daybreak. Main source of uncertainty is how
far south the strato-cu deck over Indiana and Ohio can build. At
this point expect it to build into SDF and LEX, but BWG will remain
mostly clear. Kept the ceilings VFR, but just barely so at LEX. Even
if LEX does go MVFR expect it to stay above fuel-alternate
thresholds.

High pressure builds from the north during the daytime on Tuesday,
but without a strong push will keep wind speeds just under 10 kt.
VFR strato-cu ceiling will persist at SDF and LEX, but could scatter
out later in the afternoon. Light north winds and clearing skies
expected in the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 210544
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
144 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers have developed along a weak frontal boundary moving
south along the Ohio River. The most concentrated area of rain is
actually right over Louisville, soon to move into Shelby and Spencer
counties. Currently, only some light sprinkles are apparent over the
Bluegrass and west central Kentucky. Showers will move southeast of
Louisville well before nine thirty this evening. For the rest of
this evening, southern Indiana will stay dry with isolated showers
continuing across central Kentucky and eventually, the southern
Bluegrass if these showers currently exiting Louisville hold
together.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 140 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Weak cold front is slow to progress past the Ohio River, but will
gradually push south across Kentucky overnight. Light SW winds will
veer to NW or even N by daybreak. Main source of uncertainty is how
far south the strato-cu deck over Indiana and Ohio can build. At
this point expect it to build into SDF and LEX, but BWG will remain
mostly clear. Kept the ceilings VFR, but just barely so at LEX. Even
if LEX does go MVFR expect it to stay above fuel-alternate
thresholds.

High pressure builds from the north during the daytime on Tuesday,
but without a strong push will keep wind speeds just under 10 kt.
VFR strato-cu ceiling will persist at SDF and LEX, but could scatter
out later in the afternoon. Light north winds and clearing skies
expected in the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS








000
FXUS63 KLMK 210058
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
858 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers have developed along a weak frontal boundary moving
south along the Ohio River. The most concentrated area of rain is
actually right over Louisville, soon to move into Shelby and Spencer
counties. Currently, only some light sprinkles are apparent over the
Bluegrass and west central Kentucky. Showers will move southeast of
Louisville well before nine thirty this evening. For the rest of
this evening, southern Indiana will stay dry with isolated showers
continuing across central Kentucky and eventually, the southern
Bluegrass if these showers currently exiting Louisville hold
together.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A weak cold front will move south of the Ohio River around 9 pm EDT.
Ahead of this boundary, southwest winds will be diminishing towards
5kt before they switch to the northwest at around 5 to 7kt towards
midnight. By Tuesday afternoon, expect north northwest winds around
7 to 9kt.

A few sprinkles may develop late this evening as this boundary moves
through. However any one of them will not affect ceilings or
visibilities at any terminal.

Broken strato-cu will build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF
during the early morning hours, with variably cloudy skies expected
Tuesday. However any broken ceilings will remain above 3k feet,
giving VFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210058
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
858 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers have developed along a weak frontal boundary moving
south along the Ohio River. The most concentrated area of rain is
actually right over Louisville, soon to move into Shelby and Spencer
counties. Currently, only some light sprinkles are apparent over the
Bluegrass and west central Kentucky. Showers will move southeast of
Louisville well before nine thirty this evening. For the rest of
this evening, southern Indiana will stay dry with isolated showers
continuing across central Kentucky and eventually, the southern
Bluegrass if these showers currently exiting Louisville hold
together.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A weak cold front will move south of the Ohio River around 9 pm EDT.
Ahead of this boundary, southwest winds will be diminishing towards
5kt before they switch to the northwest at around 5 to 7kt towards
midnight. By Tuesday afternoon, expect north northwest winds around
7 to 9kt.

A few sprinkles may develop late this evening as this boundary moves
through. However any one of them will not affect ceilings or
visibilities at any terminal.

Broken strato-cu will build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF
during the early morning hours, with variably cloudy skies expected
Tuesday. However any broken ceilings will remain above 3k feet,
giving VFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 202313
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
713 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A weak cold front will move south of the Ohio River around 9 pm EDT.
Ahead of this boundary, southwest winds will be diminishing towards
5kt before they switch to the northwest at around 5 to 7kt towards
midnight. By Tuesday afternoon, expect north northwest winds around
7 to 9kt.

A few sprinkles may develop late this evening as this boundary moves
through. However any one of them will not affect ceilings or
visibilities at any terminal.

Broken strato-cu will build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF
during the early morning hours, with variably cloudy skies expected
Tuesday. However any broken ceilings will remain above 3k feet,
giving VFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 202313
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
713 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A weak cold front will move south of the Ohio River around 9 pm EDT.
Ahead of this boundary, southwest winds will be diminishing towards
5kt before they switch to the northwest at around 5 to 7kt towards
midnight. By Tuesday afternoon, expect north northwest winds around
7 to 9kt.

A few sprinkles may develop late this evening as this boundary moves
through. However any one of them will not affect ceilings or
visibilities at any terminal.

Broken strato-cu will build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF
during the early morning hours, with variably cloudy skies expected
Tuesday. However any broken ceilings will remain above 3k feet,
giving VFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201908
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers will continue this afternoon as another disturbance
nears the area. However, the chances of any one of them affecting
the terminals are low so will leave mention of them out of the TAFs.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of the
afternoon at all sites. Some breaks in the clouds are expected
through the afternoon.

For tonight a cold front will move through the area. Clouds will
build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF. This will shift winds to
the northwest by tomorrow morning with speeds increasing to 8-10
knots. Some light fog will be possible at LEX early tomorrow
morning. This should improve shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201908
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers will continue this afternoon as another disturbance
nears the area. However, the chances of any one of them affecting
the terminals are low so will leave mention of them out of the TAFs.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of the
afternoon at all sites. Some breaks in the clouds are expected
through the afternoon.

For tonight a cold front will move through the area. Clouds will
build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF. This will shift winds to
the northwest by tomorrow morning with speeds increasing to 8-10
knots. Some light fog will be possible at LEX early tomorrow
morning. This should improve shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201710
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
110 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

The area of rain associated with this morning`s PV anomaly continues
to slowly shift to the east. Coverage of showers across south
central Kentucky is a bit higher late this morning than previously
anticipated so have bumped up pops for the next few hours. Isolated
to scattered showers will continue to be possible this afternoon and
into the evening hours as a front approaches and moves into the
area.

Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

The narrow line of showers continues to slowly move east across the
area. In addition, a few showers have popped up both north and south
of this line. In general the forecast is in pretty good shape. The
pop grids were updated to include a slight chance for precipitation
across south central KY where the forecast was dry before. Also
brought grids in line with current observations.

Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.

Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.

Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.

Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.

By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers will continue this afternoon as another disturbance
nears the area. However, the chances of any one of them affecting
the terminals are low so will leave mention of them out of the TAFs.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of the
afternoon at all sites. Some breaks in the clouds are expected
through the afternoon.

For tonight a cold front will move through the area. Clouds will
build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF. This will shift winds to
the northwest by tomorrow morning with speeds increasing to 8-10
knots. Some light fog will be possible at LEX early tomorrow
morning. This should improve shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201710
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
110 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

The area of rain associated with this morning`s PV anomaly continues
to slowly shift to the east. Coverage of showers across south
central Kentucky is a bit higher late this morning than previously
anticipated so have bumped up pops for the next few hours. Isolated
to scattered showers will continue to be possible this afternoon and
into the evening hours as a front approaches and moves into the
area.

Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

The narrow line of showers continues to slowly move east across the
area. In addition, a few showers have popped up both north and south
of this line. In general the forecast is in pretty good shape. The
pop grids were updated to include a slight chance for precipitation
across south central KY where the forecast was dry before. Also
brought grids in line with current observations.

Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.

Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.

Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.

Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.

By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers will continue this afternoon as another disturbance
nears the area. However, the chances of any one of them affecting
the terminals are low so will leave mention of them out of the TAFs.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of the
afternoon at all sites. Some breaks in the clouds are expected
through the afternoon.

For tonight a cold front will move through the area. Clouds will
build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF. This will shift winds to
the northwest by tomorrow morning with speeds increasing to 8-10
knots. Some light fog will be possible at LEX early tomorrow
morning. This should improve shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201539
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1139 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

The area of rain associated with this morning`s PV anomaly continues
to slowly shift to the east. Coverage of showers across south
central Kentucky is a bit higher late this morning than previously
anticipated so have bumped up pops for the next few hours. Isolated
to scattered showers will continue to be possible this afternoon and
into the evening hours as a front approaches and moves into the
area.

Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

The narrow line of showers continues to slowly move east across the
area. In addition, a few showers have popped up both north and south
of this line. In general the forecast is in pretty good shape. The
pop grids were updated to include a slight chance for precipitation
across south central KY where the forecast was dry before. Also
brought grids in line with current observations.

Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.

Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.

Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.

Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.

By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail outside of any rain showers,
however SDF/LEX will have the best shot at some brief MVFR
visibilities in moderate rain this morning. A fairly solid line of
showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead of an upper level
disturbance and will slide across SDF/LEX through the morning. Best
timing at SDF should be between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and the best timing
at LEX should be between 9 AM and 1 PM EDT. Ceilings are expected to
remain VFR.

BWG will have a shot an an isolated shower or two, however coverage
should be less so will only mention VCSH for now. Otherwise, expect
steady SW winds up between 10 and 15 mph later this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201539
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1139 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

The area of rain associated with this morning`s PV anomaly continues
to slowly shift to the east. Coverage of showers across south
central Kentucky is a bit higher late this morning than previously
anticipated so have bumped up pops for the next few hours. Isolated
to scattered showers will continue to be possible this afternoon and
into the evening hours as a front approaches and moves into the
area.

Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

The narrow line of showers continues to slowly move east across the
area. In addition, a few showers have popped up both north and south
of this line. In general the forecast is in pretty good shape. The
pop grids were updated to include a slight chance for precipitation
across south central KY where the forecast was dry before. Also
brought grids in line with current observations.

Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.

Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.

Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.

Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.

By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail outside of any rain showers,
however SDF/LEX will have the best shot at some brief MVFR
visibilities in moderate rain this morning. A fairly solid line of
showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead of an upper level
disturbance and will slide across SDF/LEX through the morning. Best
timing at SDF should be between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and the best timing
at LEX should be between 9 AM and 1 PM EDT. Ceilings are expected to
remain VFR.

BWG will have a shot an an isolated shower or two, however coverage
should be less so will only mention VCSH for now. Otherwise, expect
steady SW winds up between 10 and 15 mph later this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201329
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
929 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

The narrow line of showers continues to slowly move east across the
area. In addition, a few showers have popped up both north and south
of this line. In general the forecast is in pretty good shape. The
pop grids were updated to include a slight chance for precipitation
across south central KY where the forecast was dry before. Also
brought grids in line with current observations.

Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.

Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.

Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.

Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.

By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail outside of any rain showers,
however SDF/LEX will have the best shot at some brief MVFR
visibilities in moderate rain this morning. A fairly solid line of
showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead of an upper level
disturbance and will slide across SDF/LEX through the morning. Best
timing at SDF should be between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and the best timing
at LEX should be between 9 AM and 1 PM EDT. Ceilings are expected to
remain VFR.

BWG will have a shot an an isolated shower or two, however coverage
should be less so will only mention VCSH for now. Otherwise, expect
steady SW winds up between 10 and 15 mph later this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201329
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
929 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

The narrow line of showers continues to slowly move east across the
area. In addition, a few showers have popped up both north and south
of this line. In general the forecast is in pretty good shape. The
pop grids were updated to include a slight chance for precipitation
across south central KY where the forecast was dry before. Also
brought grids in line with current observations.

Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.

Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.

Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.

Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.

By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail outside of any rain showers,
however SDF/LEX will have the best shot at some brief MVFR
visibilities in moderate rain this morning. A fairly solid line of
showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead of an upper level
disturbance and will slide across SDF/LEX through the morning. Best
timing at SDF should be between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and the best timing
at LEX should be between 9 AM and 1 PM EDT. Ceilings are expected to
remain VFR.

BWG will have a shot an an isolated shower or two, however coverage
should be less so will only mention VCSH for now. Otherwise, expect
steady SW winds up between 10 and 15 mph later this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201048
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.

Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.

Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.

Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.

By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail outside of any rain showers,
however SDF/LEX will have the best shot at some brief MVFR
visibilities in moderate rain this morning. A fairly solid line of
showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead of an upper level
disturbance and will slide across SDF/LEX through the morning. Best
timing at SDF should be between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and the best timing
at LEX should be between 9 AM and 1 PM EDT. Ceilings are expected to
remain VFR.

BWG will have a shot an an isolated shower or two, however coverage
should be less so will only mention VCSH for now. Otherwise, expect
steady SW winds up between 10 and 15 mph later this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201048
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.

Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.

Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.

Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.

By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail outside of any rain showers,
however SDF/LEX will have the best shot at some brief MVFR
visibilities in moderate rain this morning. A fairly solid line of
showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead of an upper level
disturbance and will slide across SDF/LEX through the morning. Best
timing at SDF should be between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and the best timing
at LEX should be between 9 AM and 1 PM EDT. Ceilings are expected to
remain VFR.

BWG will have a shot an an isolated shower or two, however coverage
should be less so will only mention VCSH for now. Otherwise, expect
steady SW winds up between 10 and 15 mph later this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201016
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
616 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.

Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.

Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.

Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.

By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites for much of the
overnight, however will focus on an incoming disturbance toward the
later morning hours. Ceilings are currently broken above 10 K feet,
however expect ceilings to gradually lower toward dawn, but remain
VFR. Some light rain showers will be possible at SDF/LEX ahead of a
mid level disturbance with the best timing between 7 and 9 AM EDT at
SDF, and between 9 and 11 AM EDT at LEX. Think these showers will be
light enough that visibilities should stay above 6 SM, however
cannot rule out a brief drop into MVFR.

Otherwise, surface winds will be light out of the south, gradually
increasing in strength and veering to SW through the day. Low and
mid level clouds will hang around this evening, however expect just
above the MVFR/VFR threshold at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201016
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
616 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.

Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.

Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.

Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.

By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites for much of the
overnight, however will focus on an incoming disturbance toward the
later morning hours. Ceilings are currently broken above 10 K feet,
however expect ceilings to gradually lower toward dawn, but remain
VFR. Some light rain showers will be possible at SDF/LEX ahead of a
mid level disturbance with the best timing between 7 and 9 AM EDT at
SDF, and between 9 and 11 AM EDT at LEX. Think these showers will be
light enough that visibilities should stay above 6 SM, however
cannot rule out a brief drop into MVFR.

Otherwise, surface winds will be light out of the south, gradually
increasing in strength and veering to SW through the day. Low and
mid level clouds will hang around this evening, however expect just
above the MVFR/VFR threshold at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201016
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
616 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.

Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.

Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.

Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.

By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites for much of the
overnight, however will focus on an incoming disturbance toward the
later morning hours. Ceilings are currently broken above 10 K feet,
however expect ceilings to gradually lower toward dawn, but remain
VFR. Some light rain showers will be possible at SDF/LEX ahead of a
mid level disturbance with the best timing between 7 and 9 AM EDT at
SDF, and between 9 and 11 AM EDT at LEX. Think these showers will be
light enough that visibilities should stay above 6 SM, however
cannot rule out a brief drop into MVFR.

Otherwise, surface winds will be light out of the south, gradually
increasing in strength and veering to SW through the day. Low and
mid level clouds will hang around this evening, however expect just
above the MVFR/VFR threshold at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201016
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
616 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.

Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.

Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.

Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.

By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites for much of the
overnight, however will focus on an incoming disturbance toward the
later morning hours. Ceilings are currently broken above 10 K feet,
however expect ceilings to gradually lower toward dawn, but remain
VFR. Some light rain showers will be possible at SDF/LEX ahead of a
mid level disturbance with the best timing between 7 and 9 AM EDT at
SDF, and between 9 and 11 AM EDT at LEX. Think these showers will be
light enough that visibilities should stay above 6 SM, however
cannot rule out a brief drop into MVFR.

Otherwise, surface winds will be light out of the south, gradually
increasing in strength and veering to SW through the day. Low and
mid level clouds will hang around this evening, however expect just
above the MVFR/VFR threshold at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities