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000
FXUS63 KLMK 220722
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified ridge
across the western CONUS, with a trough across the northern Great
Lakes.  There is also a weak cutoff upper low across the Southeast.
The Great Lakes trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, driving a surface cold front southeast through
the region.

Temperatures and humidity will certainly be on the rise today as an
area of high pressure shifts east of the region.  This will allow
for light southerly flow to commence this afternoon.  Given a good
deal of sunshine (especially across north-central KY and southern
IN) and generally dry ground conditions, we should warm efficiently
this afternoon.  Really the only deterrent will be generally weak
turbulent mixing (winds in the ML around 5 knots).  Therefore, think
temperatures should warm into the 90s across most locations, with
some of the typically warmer areas possibly touching the mid 90s.
Heat indices will climb into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees at
times this afternoon.

The other story today will be convective chances across southern and
central KY.  There will be a weak deformation zone around 850-700mb
that will develop across southern and central KY this afternoon,
emanating out of the Southeast cutoff low.  In addition, low-level
moisture will be on the increase across south-central KY, which will
aid in afternoon instability.  However, am struggling to find any
surface triggers to help focus convection.  Therefore, think
coverage will remain quite sparse.  There will likely be a thin
southwest to northeast line of convection that develops along this
def zone with little additional coverage elsewhere.  Do not expect
any of these storms to be overly strong (most may actually be just
showers), with just some heavier rains, lightning and winds to
around 40mph being the main threats in any isolated storm.

Any lingering convection will dissipate by sunset.  Additional
convection will develop today across IL/WI along the approaching
cold front and drop southeast tonight into IN.  It appears that this
activity will likely weaken and dissipate before it gets to our
southern IN counties by daybreak Wednesday, thus will continue with
a dry forecast tonight.  Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.

Guidance has trended quicker with this cold front slated to move
through on Wednesday.  Model consensus places the cold front near
the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon.  Therefore, have focused the
best pop chances along and south of the Ohio River Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night.  Still am not impressed with any
organized severe potential with this system, as weak winds aloft
will yield deep-layer shear <25 knots and 0-3km shear will be <10
knots.  Steep low-level lapse rates coupled with 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE may yield a few stronger storms capable of some gusty winds
(perhaps a marginally severe storm), but agree with SPC in keeping
the region out of a Slight Risk.  Locally heavy rains will also be
possible given PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches.  Given the quicker
arrival of the front, have knocked highs down a degree or two which
puts them in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The front will push through the region Wednesday night, allowing for
drier air to filter into southern IN and northern KY.  Convection
will continue along the front across southern KY through the late
evening, but will likely decrease in coverage overnight.  Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper troffing looks to continue over the eastern United States
throughout the long term as the Rockies ridge remains to our west
and south.  Looking beyond this long term period the upper trof in
the east appears to get reinforced even further.  So, extreme heat
appears to not be in the cards for the rest of July.

At the surface, high pressure will build in behind the departing mid
week cold front.  Some lingering showers may still be found in the
Lake Cumberland region before we dry out completely in the
afternoon.  This high will be of Canadian origin and will bring
another spell of pleasant summer weather to the region. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will be around the lower 80s with
lows Friday morning in the lower 60s and upper 50s.

Friday night weak low pressure will organize over the mid Missouri
Valley with a weak surface trof reaching east.  Models are hinting
at a possible MCS developing along and north of the trof. Mid level
flow suggests any MCS that develops would move primarily to the east
and would mostly stay to our north over Illinois and Indiana.  Will
include a small PoP in our southern Indiana and far north central
Kentucky counties that will be closest to the system late Friday
night.

The picture becomes murkier as we get into the weekend. Overall,
we`ll have northwest flow aloft with the aforementioned upper
troffing along with possible weak surface systems.  As a result,
we`ll continue with scattered PoPs in the forecast through the
weekend and into Monday.  Highs will be in the 80s and lows mostly
in the 60s, though Sunday morning we may have some difficulty
dropping below 70.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Some scattered clouds around FL050 have recently developed across
portions of central KY.  These clouds will affect all terminals for
the next few hours, which will likely help to inhibit fog formation
to some extent.  Given decent low-level moisture in place and light
winds, still think that KLEX and KBWG may briefly drop into MVFR
vsbys toward sunrise, with the best chance at KLEX.

Otherwise, the remainder of the day will feature VFR flying
conditions at all terminals under partly cloudy skies and light
southwesterly winds.  A stray shower or storm is possible at KLEX or
KBWG, but coverage is expected to be too sparse to warrant any
mention at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 220722
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified ridge
across the western CONUS, with a trough across the northern Great
Lakes.  There is also a weak cutoff upper low across the Southeast.
The Great Lakes trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, driving a surface cold front southeast through
the region.

Temperatures and humidity will certainly be on the rise today as an
area of high pressure shifts east of the region.  This will allow
for light southerly flow to commence this afternoon.  Given a good
deal of sunshine (especially across north-central KY and southern
IN) and generally dry ground conditions, we should warm efficiently
this afternoon.  Really the only deterrent will be generally weak
turbulent mixing (winds in the ML around 5 knots).  Therefore, think
temperatures should warm into the 90s across most locations, with
some of the typically warmer areas possibly touching the mid 90s.
Heat indices will climb into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees at
times this afternoon.

The other story today will be convective chances across southern and
central KY.  There will be a weak deformation zone around 850-700mb
that will develop across southern and central KY this afternoon,
emanating out of the Southeast cutoff low.  In addition, low-level
moisture will be on the increase across south-central KY, which will
aid in afternoon instability.  However, am struggling to find any
surface triggers to help focus convection.  Therefore, think
coverage will remain quite sparse.  There will likely be a thin
southwest to northeast line of convection that develops along this
def zone with little additional coverage elsewhere.  Do not expect
any of these storms to be overly strong (most may actually be just
showers), with just some heavier rains, lightning and winds to
around 40mph being the main threats in any isolated storm.

Any lingering convection will dissipate by sunset.  Additional
convection will develop today across IL/WI along the approaching
cold front and drop southeast tonight into IN.  It appears that this
activity will likely weaken and dissipate before it gets to our
southern IN counties by daybreak Wednesday, thus will continue with
a dry forecast tonight.  Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.

Guidance has trended quicker with this cold front slated to move
through on Wednesday.  Model consensus places the cold front near
the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon.  Therefore, have focused the
best pop chances along and south of the Ohio River Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night.  Still am not impressed with any
organized severe potential with this system, as weak winds aloft
will yield deep-layer shear <25 knots and 0-3km shear will be <10
knots.  Steep low-level lapse rates coupled with 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE may yield a few stronger storms capable of some gusty winds
(perhaps a marginally severe storm), but agree with SPC in keeping
the region out of a Slight Risk.  Locally heavy rains will also be
possible given PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches.  Given the quicker
arrival of the front, have knocked highs down a degree or two which
puts them in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The front will push through the region Wednesday night, allowing for
drier air to filter into southern IN and northern KY.  Convection
will continue along the front across southern KY through the late
evening, but will likely decrease in coverage overnight.  Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper troffing looks to continue over the eastern United States
throughout the long term as the Rockies ridge remains to our west
and south.  Looking beyond this long term period the upper trof in
the east appears to get reinforced even further.  So, extreme heat
appears to not be in the cards for the rest of July.

At the surface, high pressure will build in behind the departing mid
week cold front.  Some lingering showers may still be found in the
Lake Cumberland region before we dry out completely in the
afternoon.  This high will be of Canadian origin and will bring
another spell of pleasant summer weather to the region. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will be around the lower 80s with
lows Friday morning in the lower 60s and upper 50s.

Friday night weak low pressure will organize over the mid Missouri
Valley with a weak surface trof reaching east.  Models are hinting
at a possible MCS developing along and north of the trof. Mid level
flow suggests any MCS that develops would move primarily to the east
and would mostly stay to our north over Illinois and Indiana.  Will
include a small PoP in our southern Indiana and far north central
Kentucky counties that will be closest to the system late Friday
night.

The picture becomes murkier as we get into the weekend. Overall,
we`ll have northwest flow aloft with the aforementioned upper
troffing along with possible weak surface systems.  As a result,
we`ll continue with scattered PoPs in the forecast through the
weekend and into Monday.  Highs will be in the 80s and lows mostly
in the 60s, though Sunday morning we may have some difficulty
dropping below 70.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Some scattered clouds around FL050 have recently developed across
portions of central KY.  These clouds will affect all terminals for
the next few hours, which will likely help to inhibit fog formation
to some extent.  Given decent low-level moisture in place and light
winds, still think that KLEX and KBWG may briefly drop into MVFR
vsbys toward sunrise, with the best chance at KLEX.

Otherwise, the remainder of the day will feature VFR flying
conditions at all terminals under partly cloudy skies and light
southwesterly winds.  A stray shower or storm is possible at KLEX or
KBWG, but coverage is expected to be too sparse to warrant any
mention at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220452
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1252 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Some scattered clouds around FL050 have recently developed across
portions of central KY.  These clouds will affect all terminals for
the next few hours, which will likely help to inhibit fog formation
to some extent.  Given decent low-level moisture in place and light
winds, still think that KLEX and KBWG may briefly drop into MVFR
vsbys toward sunrise, with the best chance at KLEX.

Otherwise, the remainder of the day will feature VFR flying
conditions at all terminals under partly cloudy skies and light
southwesterly winds.  A stray shower or storm is possible at KLEX or
KBWG, but coverage is expected to be too sparse to warrant any
mention at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220452
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1252 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Some scattered clouds around FL050 have recently developed across
portions of central KY.  These clouds will affect all terminals for
the next few hours, which will likely help to inhibit fog formation
to some extent.  Given decent low-level moisture in place and light
winds, still think that KLEX and KBWG may briefly drop into MVFR
vsbys toward sunrise, with the best chance at KLEX.

Otherwise, the remainder of the day will feature VFR flying
conditions at all terminals under partly cloudy skies and light
southwesterly winds.  A stray shower or storm is possible at KLEX or
KBWG, but coverage is expected to be too sparse to warrant any
mention at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 212303
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
703 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dewpoint dropped enough at KBWG to reduce the MVFR conditions from
prevailing to tempo with this package. KLEX did not drop as much,
but latest high-res guidance is showing a layer of stratus
developing at 5-6 kft around midnight that would slow the
progression of any potential fog development. For now, have pushed
back the timing of MVFR conditions to 09Z there. Worse conditions
are possible should this cloud cover not develop. Outside of these
chances Tuesday morning, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 212303
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
703 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dewpoint dropped enough at KBWG to reduce the MVFR conditions from
prevailing to tempo with this package. KLEX did not drop as much,
but latest high-res guidance is showing a layer of stratus
developing at 5-6 kft around midnight that would slow the
progression of any potential fog development. For now, have pushed
back the timing of MVFR conditions to 09Z there. Worse conditions
are possible should this cloud cover not develop. Outside of these
chances Tuesday morning, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211927 AAA
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The main TAF challenge with be reduced vsbys in light fog tonight at
BWG and LEX.  According to the latest MOS guidance and model
soundings, enough low level moisture should still exist for fog
formation under light winds and a weak inversion.  Went with MVFR
vsbys at both sites for this TAF forecast, but think that LEX vsby
may go down to IFR especially after having dense fog there this
morning.  Some guidance suggests this as well while other guidance
remains more optimistic, therefore, will keep forecasted vsby in the
low end MVFR cat for now.  Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will remain easterly this afternoon and then southerly for
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211927 AAA
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The main TAF challenge with be reduced vsbys in light fog tonight at
BWG and LEX.  According to the latest MOS guidance and model
soundings, enough low level moisture should still exist for fog
formation under light winds and a weak inversion.  Went with MVFR
vsbys at both sites for this TAF forecast, but think that LEX vsby
may go down to IFR especially after having dense fog there this
morning.  Some guidance suggests this as well while other guidance
remains more optimistic, therefore, will keep forecasted vsby in the
low end MVFR cat for now.  Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will remain easterly this afternoon and then southerly for
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211916
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The main TAF challenge with be reduced vsbys in light fog tonight at
BWG and LEX.  According to the latest MOS guidance and model
soundings, enough low level moisture should still exist for fog
formation under light winds and a weak inversion.  Went with MVFR
vsbys at both sites for this TAF forecast, but think that LEX vsby
may go down to IFR especially after having dense fog there this
morning.  Some guidance suggests this as well while other guidance
remains more optimistic, therefore, will keep forecasted vsby in the
low end MVFR cat for now.  Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will remain easterly this afternoon and then southerly for
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211916
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The main TAF challenge with be reduced vsbys in light fog tonight at
BWG and LEX.  According to the latest MOS guidance and model
soundings, enough low level moisture should still exist for fog
formation under light winds and a weak inversion.  Went with MVFR
vsbys at both sites for this TAF forecast, but think that LEX vsby
may go down to IFR especially after having dense fog there this
morning.  Some guidance suggests this as well while other guidance
remains more optimistic, therefore, will keep forecasted vsby in the
low end MVFR cat for now.  Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will remain easterly this afternoon and then southerly for
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211728
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
128 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Updated the forecast to remove morning fog wording.  Fog is quickly
dissipating over the Bluegrass region late this morning.  Expect
mostly sunny skies this afternoon with high temps soaring into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The main TAF challenge with be reduced vsbys in light fog tonight at
BWG and LEX.  According to the latest MOS guidance and model
soundings, enough low level moisture should still exist for fog
formation under light winds and a weak inversion.  Went with MVFR
vsbys at both sites for this TAF forecast, but think that LEX vsby
may go down to IFR especially after having dense fog there this
morning.  Some guidance suggests this as well while other guidance
remains more optimistic, therefore, will keep forecasted vsby in the
low end MVFR cat for now.  Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will remain easterly this afternoon and then southerly for
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211454
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1054 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Updated the forecast to remove morning fog wording.  Fog is quickly
dissipating over the Bluegrass region late this morning.  Expect
mostly sunny skies this afternoon with high temps soaring into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge in this forecast cycle is how quickly fog will
dissipate this morning, especially at LEX where we are starting off
socked in below all field mins. Area webcams show that the fog bank
is not very deep, so expect it to burn off fairly quickly as the sun
rises, most likely a bit faster than advertised by GFS LAMP. Brief
MVFR vis at BWG and SDF will continue for the next hour or so.

Once the morning fog is gone expect VFR conditions and diurnal cu
until we do it all over again in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.
Expect any fog formation to occur a bit later without the immediate
influence of precip and taking a few hrs longer to cross over
afternoon dewpoints. At this time will just include a TEMPO for MVFR
vis at BWG and LEX just before daybreak Tue.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS/AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211454
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1054 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Updated the forecast to remove morning fog wording.  Fog is quickly
dissipating over the Bluegrass region late this morning.  Expect
mostly sunny skies this afternoon with high temps soaring into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge in this forecast cycle is how quickly fog will
dissipate this morning, especially at LEX where we are starting off
socked in below all field mins. Area webcams show that the fog bank
is not very deep, so expect it to burn off fairly quickly as the sun
rises, most likely a bit faster than advertised by GFS LAMP. Brief
MVFR vis at BWG and SDF will continue for the next hour or so.

Once the morning fog is gone expect VFR conditions and diurnal cu
until we do it all over again in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.
Expect any fog formation to occur a bit later without the immediate
influence of precip and taking a few hrs longer to cross over
afternoon dewpoints. At this time will just include a TEMPO for MVFR
vis at BWG and LEX just before daybreak Tue.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS/AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211118
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
718 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge in this forecast cycle is how quickly fog will
dissipate this morning, especially at LEX where we are starting off
socked in below all field mins. Area webcams show that the fog bank
is not very deep, so expect it to burn off fairly quickly as the sun
rises, most likely a bit faster than advertised by GFS LAMP. Brief
MVFR vis at BWG and SDF will continue for the next hour or so.

Once the morning fog is gone expect VFR conditions and diurnal cu
until we do it all over again in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.
Expect any fog formation to occur a bit later without the immediate
influence of precip and taking a few hrs longer to cross over
afternoon dewpoints. At this time will just include a TEMPO for MVFR
vis at BWG and LEX just before daybreak Tue.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS/AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211118
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
718 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge in this forecast cycle is how quickly fog will
dissipate this morning, especially at LEX where we are starting off
socked in below all field mins. Area webcams show that the fog bank
is not very deep, so expect it to burn off fairly quickly as the sun
rises, most likely a bit faster than advertised by GFS LAMP. Brief
MVFR vis at BWG and SDF will continue for the next hour or so.

Once the morning fog is gone expect VFR conditions and diurnal cu
until we do it all over again in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.
Expect any fog formation to occur a bit later without the immediate
influence of precip and taking a few hrs longer to cross over
afternoon dewpoints. At this time will just include a TEMPO for MVFR
vis at BWG and LEX just before daybreak Tue.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS/AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge is potential for overnight fog formation. Skies have
cleared and winds have gone nearly calm, with favorable radiational
cooling conditions expected to continue. Most concerned about LEX,
where temp is already close to the afternoon dewpoint, and over a
half inch of rain fell late Sunday afternoon. Latest GFS LAMP
guidance has backed off a bit from previous runs, but still
confident that restrictions to vis will occur. As this discussion
was about to be sent, LEX came in with IFR visibility, so will
initialize accordingly closer to the end of the issuance window, and
most likely include a TEMPO for LIFR vis. Didn`t quite hit BWG as
hard and confidence a bit lower due to some slightly lower dewpoints
that mixed down Sunday afternoon, but stuck with a similar theme of
prevailing MVFR/TEMPO IFR. SDF should stay warm enough to limit
impacts to a couple hrs of MVFR vis around daybreak.

By mid-morning the fog should dissipate, leaving VFR conditions with
only scattered diurnal cu and light ENE winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 210709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge is potential for overnight fog formation. Skies have
cleared and winds have gone nearly calm, with favorable radiational
cooling conditions expected to continue. Most concerned about LEX,
where temp is already close to the afternoon dewpoint, and over a
half inch of rain fell late Sunday afternoon. Latest GFS LAMP
guidance has backed off a bit from previous runs, but still
confident that restrictions to vis will occur. As this discussion
was about to be sent, LEX came in with IFR visibility, so will
initialize accordingly closer to the end of the issuance window, and
most likely include a TEMPO for LIFR vis. Didn`t quite hit BWG as
hard and confidence a bit lower due to some slightly lower dewpoints
that mixed down Sunday afternoon, but stuck with a similar theme of
prevailing MVFR/TEMPO IFR. SDF should stay warm enough to limit
impacts to a couple hrs of MVFR vis around daybreak.

By mid-morning the fog should dissipate, leaving VFR conditions with
only scattered diurnal cu and light ENE winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210525
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
125 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Skies have been continuing to clear out across the forecast area
with some clouds lingering in portions of southern and eastern KY.
This, along with very light to calm winds and plenty of low-level
moisture sticking around yields a decent chance for patchy fog
throughout central KY and southern IN. The better chances for fog
development (outside of prone locations) will be concentrated to
locations that received rain today, particularly in the Bluegrass
region. Increasing confidence exists for areas of fog to develop in
and around rivers, valleys, and other prone spots and have updated
the forecast as such. As for temperatures, have bumped lows down a
degree or two to account for radiational cooling expected under the
mostly clear skies. Dewpoints have also been adjusted accordingly.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge is potential for overnight fog formation. Skies have
cleared and winds have gone nearly calm, with favorable radiational
cooling conditions expected to continue. Most concerned about LEX,
where temp is already close to the afternoon dewpoint, and over a
half inch of rain fell late Sunday afternoon. Latest GFS LAMP
guidance has backed off a bit from previous runs, but still
confident that restrictions to vis will occur. As this discussion
was about to be sent, LEX came in with IFR visibility, so will
initialize accordingly closer to the end of the issuance window,
and most likely include a TEMPO for LIFR vis. Didn`t quite hit
BWG as hard and confidence a bit lower due to some slightly lower
dewpoints that mixed down Sunday afternoon, but stuck with a
similar theme of prevailing MVFR/TEMPO IFR. SDF should stay warm
enough to limit impacts to a couple hrs of MVFR vis around
daybreak.

By mid-morning the fog should dissipate, leaving VFR conditions with
only scattered diurnal cu and light ENE winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 210525
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
125 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Skies have been continuing to clear out across the forecast area
with some clouds lingering in portions of southern and eastern KY.
This, along with very light to calm winds and plenty of low-level
moisture sticking around yields a decent chance for patchy fog
throughout central KY and southern IN. The better chances for fog
development (outside of prone locations) will be concentrated to
locations that received rain today, particularly in the Bluegrass
region. Increasing confidence exists for areas of fog to develop in
and around rivers, valleys, and other prone spots and have updated
the forecast as such. As for temperatures, have bumped lows down a
degree or two to account for radiational cooling expected under the
mostly clear skies. Dewpoints have also been adjusted accordingly.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge is potential for overnight fog formation. Skies have
cleared and winds have gone nearly calm, with favorable radiational
cooling conditions expected to continue. Most concerned about LEX,
where temp is already close to the afternoon dewpoint, and over a
half inch of rain fell late Sunday afternoon. Latest GFS LAMP
guidance has backed off a bit from previous runs, but still
confident that restrictions to vis will occur. As this discussion
was about to be sent, LEX came in with IFR visibility, so will
initialize accordingly closer to the end of the issuance window,
and most likely include a TEMPO for LIFR vis. Didn`t quite hit
BWG as hard and confidence a bit lower due to some slightly lower
dewpoints that mixed down Sunday afternoon, but stuck with a
similar theme of prevailing MVFR/TEMPO IFR. SDF should stay warm
enough to limit impacts to a couple hrs of MVFR vis around
daybreak.

By mid-morning the fog should dissipate, leaving VFR conditions with
only scattered diurnal cu and light ENE winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS








000
FXUS63 KLMK 210157
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
957 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Skies have been continuing to clear out across the forecast area
with some clouds lingering in portions of southern and eastern KY.
This, along with very light to calm winds and plenty of low-level
moisture sticking around yields a decent chance for patchy fog
throughout central KY and southern IN. The better chances for fog
development (outside of prone locations) will be concentrated to
locations that received rain today, particularly in the Bluegrass
region. Increasing confidence exists for areas of fog to develop in
and around rivers, valleys, and other prone spots and have updated
the forecast as such. As for temperatures, have bumped lows down a
degree or two to account for radiational cooling expected under the
mostly clear skies. Dewpoints have also been adjusted accordingly.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Fog and low ceilings will be the big concern for aviation interests
by the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Satellite imagery and current obs
are showing clearing skies across much of central KY and southern
IN. Clouds are continuing to stream across TN and eastern KY but
they are expected to remain well outside of impacting the area
terminals. With plenty of low-level moisture remaining in place
through tomorrow, clearing skies, and very light to calm winds
overnight, IFR to possibly LIFR conditions are anticipated at BWG
and LEX, particularly LEX given the rain received there this
afternoon. As for SDF, MVFR conditions are anticipated for the early
Monday morning hours but IFR conditions can`t be ruled out entirely.
Will need to monitor trends and update as necessary throughout the
night to see just how low visbys/ceilings go.

Once the fog/low ceilings clear tomorrow morning, expect a fair day
with the development of an afternoon CU field as an elongated area
of high pressure/ridging moves into the Ohio Valley. Winds will be
generally light and out of the NE on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210157
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
957 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Skies have been continuing to clear out across the forecast area
with some clouds lingering in portions of southern and eastern KY.
This, along with very light to calm winds and plenty of low-level
moisture sticking around yields a decent chance for patchy fog
throughout central KY and southern IN. The better chances for fog
development (outside of prone locations) will be concentrated to
locations that received rain today, particularly in the Bluegrass
region. Increasing confidence exists for areas of fog to develop in
and around rivers, valleys, and other prone spots and have updated
the forecast as such. As for temperatures, have bumped lows down a
degree or two to account for radiational cooling expected under the
mostly clear skies. Dewpoints have also been adjusted accordingly.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Fog and low ceilings will be the big concern for aviation interests
by the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Satellite imagery and current obs
are showing clearing skies across much of central KY and southern
IN. Clouds are continuing to stream across TN and eastern KY but
they are expected to remain well outside of impacting the area
terminals. With plenty of low-level moisture remaining in place
through tomorrow, clearing skies, and very light to calm winds
overnight, IFR to possibly LIFR conditions are anticipated at BWG
and LEX, particularly LEX given the rain received there this
afternoon. As for SDF, MVFR conditions are anticipated for the early
Monday morning hours but IFR conditions can`t be ruled out entirely.
Will need to monitor trends and update as necessary throughout the
night to see just how low visbys/ceilings go.

Once the fog/low ceilings clear tomorrow morning, expect a fair day
with the development of an afternoon CU field as an elongated area
of high pressure/ridging moves into the Ohio Valley. Winds will be
generally light and out of the NE on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg







000
FXUS63 KLMK 202344
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
744 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Fog and low ceilings will be the big concern for aviation interests
by the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Satellite imagery and current obs
are showing clearing skies across much of central KY and southern
IN. Clouds are continuing to stream across TN and eastern KY but
they are expected to remain well outside of impacting the area
terminals. With plenty of low-level moisture remaining in place
through tomorrow, clearing skies, and very light to calm winds
overnight, IFR to possibly LIFR conditions are anticipated at BWG
and LEX, particularly LEX given the rain received there this
afternoon. As for SDF, MVFR conditions are anticipated for the early
Monday morning hours but IFR conditions can`t be ruled out entirely.
Will need to monitor trends and update as necessary throughout the
night to see just how low visbys/ceilings go.

Once the fog/low ceilings clear tomorrow morning, expect a fair day
with the development of an afternoon CU field as an elongated area
of high pressure/ridging moves into the Ohio Valley. Winds will be
generally light and out of the NE on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 202344
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
744 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Fog and low ceilings will be the big concern for aviation interests
by the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Satellite imagery and current obs
are showing clearing skies across much of central KY and southern
IN. Clouds are continuing to stream across TN and eastern KY but
they are expected to remain well outside of impacting the area
terminals. With plenty of low-level moisture remaining in place
through tomorrow, clearing skies, and very light to calm winds
overnight, IFR to possibly LIFR conditions are anticipated at BWG
and LEX, particularly LEX given the rain received there this
afternoon. As for SDF, MVFR conditions are anticipated for the early
Monday morning hours but IFR conditions can`t be ruled out entirely.
Will need to monitor trends and update as necessary throughout the
night to see just how low visbys/ceilings go.

Once the fog/low ceilings clear tomorrow morning, expect a fair day
with the development of an afternoon CU field as an elongated area
of high pressure/ridging moves into the Ohio Valley. Winds will be
generally light and out of the NE on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201921
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Ceilings have improved through the morning with MVFR to VFR
conditions at all sites. They are expected to continue to lift this
afternoon with VFR ceilings prevailing at all sites within the next
few hours. Some lower clouds could develop again late tonight.
However, they are not expected to be as widespread or as low as this
morning. Will keep scattered wording in the TAFs for SDF and BWG.
LEX stands a better chance for having an MVFR ceiling, so will go
with broken there.

Winds through the period will be light and variable as high pressure
remains in control. Some light fog will be possible at all sites
towards dawn tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201700
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
100 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Light shower continue to develop across east central Kentucky ahead
of a weak surface low. Coverage of showers has increased a bit this
morning, so raised the precipitation chances just a bit in the area
for the next few hours. Also removed any mention of fog from the
forecast. Otherwise, just minor edits were made to bring the
forecast in line with current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an upper trough
across the Great Lakes region extending into the Ohio Valley, with
an upstream ridge located off the West Coast.  This trough will
begin to finally lose its grip over the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, leading to a warming trend for the start of the
workweek.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak inverted surface trough
located from southwest to northeast, bisecting the state of
Kentucky.  An approaching shortwave trough visible on WV imagery has
led to the development of a weak surface low across southern KY
along the aforementioned trough.  To the northwest of this surface
low, showers have recently increased in coverage along a weak 850mb
front.

These light showers will continue through the remainder of the
morning hours into the afternoon, before tapering off from west to
east throughout the day as the shortwave trough passes through and
the surface low weakens and meanders east.  It appears the best
coverage of these showers will be to the north and east of the weak
low, which puts the Lake Cumberland region and the Northern
Bluegrass at the greatest risk (30% coverage).  Forecast soundings
in these areas continue to support a very isolated risk of a
thunderstorm early this afternoon, thus will continue thunder
mention in the forecast.  Highs today will be quite tricky, as
NAM/GFS guidance differs quite a bit on the depth of the low-level
moisture.  Given the general pattern we`ve been stuck in and no real
entrainment of drier low-level air, have leaned toward the cloudier
NAM solution.  This keeps clouds around through much of the day
across the Northern Bluegrass, which should once again help hold
highs down in the upper 70s to perhaps a few lower 80s.  Further
west towards the I-65 corridor, a few peaks of sunshine this
afternoon should help temperatures rebound into the low to mid 80s.

The upper-level trough will finally begin to lose its grip on the
Ohio Valley tonight, which should allow for a drier forecast.
Cannot rule out a stray shower over near the I-75 corridor along the
stubborn inverted surface trough, but the potential looks too low to
warrant mention in the forecast at this time.  Overnight lows will
be in the mid 60s.

Things will begin to warm up on Monday, as 850mb temperatures warm
to around 17-18C.  In addition, sunshine looks to finally break out
in earnest Monday afternoon.  However, it appears as if winds will
remain quite light and easterly, which will temper the warm up a
bit, thus highs in the mid to upper 80s seem reasonable, with a few
of the typical warm spots touching 90.  Will continue to leave a
very slight chance of a thunderstorm near the surface trough across
the far eastern CWA, but this may be able to removed in the next
forecast package as it appears the threat is trending further
east.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Main synoptic influence Tuesday into Wednesday will be the hot ridge
building over the Rockies. Better model agreement with each
successive run that the ridge axis will extend eastward somewhere
near 38N, with strong capping over our northern and western
counties, especially on Tuesday. Will keep trending the forecast to
reflect this, pushing highs solidly into the lower 90s, with the
heat island of Metro Louisville creeping into the mid 90s. Heat
indices will be close to 100. Will also keep suppressing the POPs
farther south and east, with chance POPs limited to Lake Cumberland
and even holding the slight chance south of the Western Kentucky and
Bluegrass Parkways.

Pattern amplifies on Wednesday with heights falling as a NW flow
impulse pushes the cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Should be just
about as hot as Tuesday, but with better chances of precip,
especially late in the day over southern Indiana.

Best shot at showers and storms will be Wednesday night with the
cold front. Will carry high-end chance POPs with confidence in
timing being the main limiting factor. There will be strong
instability ahead of the front and decent mid-level winds, but
nocturnal timing is not as favorable for severe storms. Dynamics are
just enough to support some organization, so can`t completely rule
out a few strong storms. Will continue to mention in HWO.

Latter part of the week will be marked by east coast trofiness and
NW flow over the Ohio Valley. Temps will run a few degrees below
normal Thu-Sat, especially by day. Surface high over the Great Lakes
will provide at least a day of dry wx and comfortable humidity
levels on Friday. Rain chances return on Saturday as the next system
takes shape in a flattening NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Ceilings have improved through the morning with MVFR to VFR
conditions at all sites. They are expected to continue to lift this
afternoon with VFR ceilings prevailing at all sites within the next
few hours. Some lower clouds could develop again late tonight.
However, they are not expected to be as widespread or as low as this
morning. Will keep scattered wording in the TAFs for SDF and BWG.
LEX stands a better chance for having an MVFR ceiling, so will go
with broken there.

Winds through the period will be light and variable as high pressure
remains in control. Some light fog will be possible at all sites
towards dawn tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201700
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
100 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Light shower continue to develop across east central Kentucky ahead
of a weak surface low. Coverage of showers has increased a bit this
morning, so raised the precipitation chances just a bit in the area
for the next few hours. Also removed any mention of fog from the
forecast. Otherwise, just minor edits were made to bring the
forecast in line with current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an upper trough
across the Great Lakes region extending into the Ohio Valley, with
an upstream ridge located off the West Coast.  This trough will
begin to finally lose its grip over the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, leading to a warming trend for the start of the
workweek.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak inverted surface trough
located from southwest to northeast, bisecting the state of
Kentucky.  An approaching shortwave trough visible on WV imagery has
led to the development of a weak surface low across southern KY
along the aforementioned trough.  To the northwest of this surface
low, showers have recently increased in coverage along a weak 850mb
front.

These light showers will continue through the remainder of the
morning hours into the afternoon, before tapering off from west to
east throughout the day as the shortwave trough passes through and
the surface low weakens and meanders east.  It appears the best
coverage of these showers will be to the north and east of the weak
low, which puts the Lake Cumberland region and the Northern
Bluegrass at the greatest risk (30% coverage).  Forecast soundings
in these areas continue to support a very isolated risk of a
thunderstorm early this afternoon, thus will continue thunder
mention in the forecast.  Highs today will be quite tricky, as
NAM/GFS guidance differs quite a bit on the depth of the low-level
moisture.  Given the general pattern we`ve been stuck in and no real
entrainment of drier low-level air, have leaned toward the cloudier
NAM solution.  This keeps clouds around through much of the day
across the Northern Bluegrass, which should once again help hold
highs down in the upper 70s to perhaps a few lower 80s.  Further
west towards the I-65 corridor, a few peaks of sunshine this
afternoon should help temperatures rebound into the low to mid 80s.

The upper-level trough will finally begin to lose its grip on the
Ohio Valley tonight, which should allow for a drier forecast.
Cannot rule out a stray shower over near the I-75 corridor along the
stubborn inverted surface trough, but the potential looks too low to
warrant mention in the forecast at this time.  Overnight lows will
be in the mid 60s.

Things will begin to warm up on Monday, as 850mb temperatures warm
to around 17-18C.  In addition, sunshine looks to finally break out
in earnest Monday afternoon.  However, it appears as if winds will
remain quite light and easterly, which will temper the warm up a
bit, thus highs in the mid to upper 80s seem reasonable, with a few
of the typical warm spots touching 90.  Will continue to leave a
very slight chance of a thunderstorm near the surface trough across
the far eastern CWA, but this may be able to removed in the next
forecast package as it appears the threat is trending further
east.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Main synoptic influence Tuesday into Wednesday will be the hot ridge
building over the Rockies. Better model agreement with each
successive run that the ridge axis will extend eastward somewhere
near 38N, with strong capping over our northern and western
counties, especially on Tuesday. Will keep trending the forecast to
reflect this, pushing highs solidly into the lower 90s, with the
heat island of Metro Louisville creeping into the mid 90s. Heat
indices will be close to 100. Will also keep suppressing the POPs
farther south and east, with chance POPs limited to Lake Cumberland
and even holding the slight chance south of the Western Kentucky and
Bluegrass Parkways.

Pattern amplifies on Wednesday with heights falling as a NW flow
impulse pushes the cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Should be just
about as hot as Tuesday, but with better chances of precip,
especially late in the day over southern Indiana.

Best shot at showers and storms will be Wednesday night with the
cold front. Will carry high-end chance POPs with confidence in
timing being the main limiting factor. There will be strong
instability ahead of the front and decent mid-level winds, but
nocturnal timing is not as favorable for severe storms. Dynamics are
just enough to support some organization, so can`t completely rule
out a few strong storms. Will continue to mention in HWO.

Latter part of the week will be marked by east coast trofiness and
NW flow over the Ohio Valley. Temps will run a few degrees below
normal Thu-Sat, especially by day. Surface high over the Great Lakes
will provide at least a day of dry wx and comfortable humidity
levels on Friday. Rain chances return on Saturday as the next system
takes shape in a flattening NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Ceilings have improved through the morning with MVFR to VFR
conditions at all sites. They are expected to continue to lift this
afternoon with VFR ceilings prevailing at all sites within the next
few hours. Some lower clouds could develop again late tonight.
However, they are not expected to be as widespread or as low as this
morning. Will keep scattered wording in the TAFs for SDF and BWG.
LEX stands a better chance for having an MVFR ceiling, so will go
with broken there.

Winds through the period will be light and variable as high pressure
remains in control. Some light fog will be possible at all sites
towards dawn tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201321
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
921 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Light shower continue to develop across east central Kentucky ahead
of a weak surface low. Coverage of showers has increased a bit this
morning, so raised the precipitation chances just a bit in the area
for the next few hours. Also removed any mention of fog from the
forecast. Otherwise, just minor edits were made to bring the
forecast in line with current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an upper trough
across the Great Lakes region extending into the Ohio Valley, with
an upstream ridge located off the West Coast.  This trough will
begin to finally lose its grip over the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, leading to a warming trend for the start of the
workweek.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak inverted surface trough
located from southwest to northeast, bisecting the state of
Kentucky.  An approaching shortwave trough visible on WV imagery has
led to the development of a weak surface low across southern KY
along the aforementioned trough.  To the northwest of this surface
low, showers have recently increased in coverage along a weak 850mb
front.

These light showers will continue through the remainder of the
morning hours into the afternoon, before tapering off from west to
east throughout the day as the shortwave trough passes through and
the surface low weakens and meanders east.  It appears the best
coverage of these showers will be to the north and east of the weak
low, which puts the Lake Cumberland region and the Northern
Bluegrass at the greatest risk (30% coverage).  Forecast soundings
in these areas continue to support a very isolated risk of a
thunderstorm early this afternoon, thus will continue thunder
mention in the forecast.  Highs today will be quite tricky, as
NAM/GFS guidance differs quite a bit on the depth of the low-level
moisture.  Given the general pattern we`ve been stuck in and no real
entrainment of drier low-level air, have leaned toward the cloudier
NAM solution.  This keeps clouds around through much of the day
across the Northern Bluegrass, which should once again help hold
highs down in the upper 70s to perhaps a few lower 80s.  Further
west towards the I-65 corridor, a few peaks of sunshine this
afternoon should help temperatures rebound into the low to mid 80s.

The upper-level trough will finally begin to lose its grip on the
Ohio Valley tonight, which should allow for a drier forecast.
Cannot rule out a stray shower over near the I-75 corridor along the
stubborn inverted surface trough, but the potential looks too low to
warrant mention in the forecast at this time.  Overnight lows will
be in the mid 60s.

Things will begin to warm up on Monday, as 850mb temperatures warm
to around 17-18C.  In addition, sunshine looks to finally break out
in earnest Monday afternoon.  However, it appears as if winds will
remain quite light and easterly, which will temper the warm up a
bit, thus highs in the mid to upper 80s seem reasonable, with a few
of the typical warm spots touching 90.  Will continue to leave a
very slight chance of a thunderstorm near the surface trough across
the far eastern CWA, but this may be able to removed in the next
forecast package as it appears the threat is trending further
east.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Main synoptic influence Tuesday into Wednesday will be the hot ridge
building over the Rockies. Better model agreement with each
successive run that the ridge axis will extend eastward somewhere
near 38N, with strong capping over our northern and western
counties, especially on Tuesday. Will keep trending the forecast to
reflect this, pushing highs solidly into the lower 90s, with the
heat island of Metro Louisville creeping into the mid 90s. Heat
indices will be close to 100. Will also keep suppressing the POPs
farther south and east, with chance POPs limited to Lake Cumberland
and even holding the slight chance south of the Western Kentucky and
Bluegrass Parkways.

Pattern amplifies on Wednesday with heights falling as a NW flow
impulse pushes the cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Should be just
about as hot as Tuesday, but with better chances of precip,
especially late in the day over southern Indiana.

Best shot at showers and storms will be Wednesday night with the
cold front. Will carry high-end chance POPs with confidence in
timing being the main limiting factor. There will be strong
instability ahead of the front and decent mid-level winds, but
nocturnal timing is not as favorable for severe storms. Dynamics are
just enough to support some organization, so can`t completely rule
out a few strong storms. Will continue to mention in HWO.

Latter part of the week will be marked by east coast trofiness and
NW flow over the Ohio Valley. Temps will run a few degrees below
normal Thu-Sat, especially by day. Surface high over the Great Lakes
will provide at least a day of dry wx and comfortable humidity
levels on Friday. Rain chances return on Saturday as the next system
takes shape in a flattening NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

LIFR cigs have pushed into KLEX and KBWG early this morning as
an unseasonably cool airmass interacts with copious low-level
moisture.  KSDF has even gone high-end IFR as some light rain
overnight has helped cigs to slowly lower.  Given only light winds
expected today and no real entrainment of drier air, think these low
clouds will be slow to mix out, with KBWG and KLEX likely not going
VFR until this afternoon.  However, it appears that by this
afternoon all sites should return to VFR.  A stray shower is
possible at any site this morning into early this afternoon, with
the best coverage likely occurring near KLEX.

Conditions may once again deteriorate tonight, with light fog and/or
low cigs possible once again, especially towards KLEX.  Given the
uncertainty in the amount of available low-level moisture, will
leave restrictions out of KBWG and KSDF for now, but they may be
needed in coming forecast packages.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201321
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
921 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Light shower continue to develop across east central Kentucky ahead
of a weak surface low. Coverage of showers has increased a bit this
morning, so raised the precipitation chances just a bit in the area
for the next few hours. Also removed any mention of fog from the
forecast. Otherwise, just minor edits were made to bring the
forecast in line with current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an upper trough
across the Great Lakes region extending into the Ohio Valley, with
an upstream ridge located off the West Coast.  This trough will
begin to finally lose its grip over the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, leading to a warming trend for the start of the
workweek.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak inverted surface trough
located from southwest to northeast, bisecting the state of
Kentucky.  An approaching shortwave trough visible on WV imagery has
led to the development of a weak surface low across southern KY
along the aforementioned trough.  To the northwest of this surface
low, showers have recently increased in coverage along a weak 850mb
front.

These light showers will continue through the remainder of the
morning hours into the afternoon, before tapering off from west to
east throughout the day as the shortwave trough passes through and
the surface low weakens and meanders east.  It appears the best
coverage of these showers will be to the north and east of the weak
low, which puts the Lake Cumberland region and the Northern
Bluegrass at the greatest risk (30% coverage).  Forecast soundings
in these areas continue to support a very isolated risk of a
thunderstorm early this afternoon, thus will continue thunder
mention in the forecast.  Highs today will be quite tricky, as
NAM/GFS guidance differs quite a bit on the depth of the low-level
moisture.  Given the general pattern we`ve been stuck in and no real
entrainment of drier low-level air, have leaned toward the cloudier
NAM solution.  This keeps clouds around through much of the day
across the Northern Bluegrass, which should once again help hold
highs down in the upper 70s to perhaps a few lower 80s.  Further
west towards the I-65 corridor, a few peaks of sunshine this
afternoon should help temperatures rebound into the low to mid 80s.

The upper-level trough will finally begin to lose its grip on the
Ohio Valley tonight, which should allow for a drier forecast.
Cannot rule out a stray shower over near the I-75 corridor along the
stubborn inverted surface trough, but the potential looks too low to
warrant mention in the forecast at this time.  Overnight lows will
be in the mid 60s.

Things will begin to warm up on Monday, as 850mb temperatures warm
to around 17-18C.  In addition, sunshine looks to finally break out
in earnest Monday afternoon.  However, it appears as if winds will
remain quite light and easterly, which will temper the warm up a
bit, thus highs in the mid to upper 80s seem reasonable, with a few
of the typical warm spots touching 90.  Will continue to leave a
very slight chance of a thunderstorm near the surface trough across
the far eastern CWA, but this may be able to removed in the next
forecast package as it appears the threat is trending further
east.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Main synoptic influence Tuesday into Wednesday will be the hot ridge
building over the Rockies. Better model agreement with each
successive run that the ridge axis will extend eastward somewhere
near 38N, with strong capping over our northern and western
counties, especially on Tuesday. Will keep trending the forecast to
reflect this, pushing highs solidly into the lower 90s, with the
heat island of Metro Louisville creeping into the mid 90s. Heat
indices will be close to 100. Will also keep suppressing the POPs
farther south and east, with chance POPs limited to Lake Cumberland
and even holding the slight chance south of the Western Kentucky and
Bluegrass Parkways.

Pattern amplifies on Wednesday with heights falling as a NW flow
impulse pushes the cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Should be just
about as hot as Tuesday, but with better chances of precip,
especially late in the day over southern Indiana.

Best shot at showers and storms will be Wednesday night with the
cold front. Will carry high-end chance POPs with confidence in
timing being the main limiting factor. There will be strong
instability ahead of the front and decent mid-level winds, but
nocturnal timing is not as favorable for severe storms. Dynamics are
just enough to support some organization, so can`t completely rule
out a few strong storms. Will continue to mention in HWO.

Latter part of the week will be marked by east coast trofiness and
NW flow over the Ohio Valley. Temps will run a few degrees below
normal Thu-Sat, especially by day. Surface high over the Great Lakes
will provide at least a day of dry wx and comfortable humidity
levels on Friday. Rain chances return on Saturday as the next system
takes shape in a flattening NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

LIFR cigs have pushed into KLEX and KBWG early this morning as
an unseasonably cool airmass interacts with copious low-level
moisture.  KSDF has even gone high-end IFR as some light rain
overnight has helped cigs to slowly lower.  Given only light winds
expected today and no real entrainment of drier air, think these low
clouds will be slow to mix out, with KBWG and KLEX likely not going
VFR until this afternoon.  However, it appears that by this
afternoon all sites should return to VFR.  A stray shower is
possible at any site this morning into early this afternoon, with
the best coverage likely occurring near KLEX.

Conditions may once again deteriorate tonight, with light fog and/or
low cigs possible once again, especially towards KLEX.  Given the
uncertainty in the amount of available low-level moisture, will
leave restrictions out of KBWG and KSDF for now, but they may be
needed in coming forecast packages.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201049
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
649 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an upper trough
across the Great Lakes region extending into the Ohio Valley, with
an upstream ridge located off the West Coast.  This trough will
begin to finally lose its grip over the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, leading to a warming trend for the start of the
workweek.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak inverted surface trough
located from southwest to northeast, bisecting the state of
Kentucky.  An approaching shortwave trough visible on WV imagery has
led to the development of a weak surface low across southern KY
along the aforementioned trough.  To the northwest of this surface
low, showers have recently increased in coverage along a weak 850mb
front.

These light showers will continue through the remainder of the
morning hours into the afternoon, before tapering off from west to
east throughout the day as the shortwave trough passes through and
the surface low weakens and meanders east.  It appears the best
coverage of these showers will be to the north and east of the weak
low, which puts the Lake Cumberland region and the Northern
Bluegrass at the greatest risk (30% coverage).  Forecast soundings
in these areas continue to support a very isolated risk of a
thunderstorm early this afternoon, thus will continue thunder
mention in the forecast.  Highs today will be quite tricky, as
NAM/GFS guidance differs quite a bit on the depth of the low-level
moisture.  Given the general pattern we`ve been stuck in and no real
entrainment of drier low-level air, have leaned toward the cloudier
NAM solution.  This keeps clouds around through much of the day
across the Northern Bluegrass, which should once again help hold
highs down in the upper 70s to perhaps a few lower 80s.  Further
west towards the I-65 corridor, a few peaks of sunshine this
afternoon should help temperatures rebound into the low to mid 80s.

The upper-level trough will finally begin to lose its grip on the
Ohio Valley tonight, which should allow for a drier forecast.
Cannot rule out a stray shower over near the I-75 corridor along the
stubborn inverted surface trough, but the potential looks too low to
warrant mention in the forecast at this time.  Overnight lows will
be in the mid 60s.

Things will begin to warm up on Monday, as 850mb temperatures warm
to around 17-18C.  In addition, sunshine looks to finally break out
in earnest Monday afternoon.  However, it appears as if winds will
remain quite light and easterly, which will temper the warm up a
bit, thus highs in the mid to upper 80s seem reasonable, with a few
of the typical warm spots touching 90.  Will continue to leave a
very slight chance of a thunderstorm near the surface trough across
the far eastern CWA, but this may be able to removed in the next
forecast package as it appears the threat is trending further
east.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Main synoptic influence Tuesday into Wednesday will be the hot ridge
building over the Rockies. Better model agreement with each
successive run that the ridge axis will extend eastward somewhere
near 38N, with strong capping over our northern and western
counties, especially on Tuesday. Will keep trending the forecast to
reflect this, pushing highs solidly into the lower 90s, with the
heat island of Metro Louisville creeping into the mid 90s. Heat
indices will be close to 100. Will also keep suppressing the POPs
farther south and east, with chance POPs limited to Lake Cumberland
and even holding the slight chance south of the Western Kentucky and
Bluegrass Parkways.

Pattern amplifies on Wednesday with heights falling as a NW flow
impulse pushes the cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Should be just
about as hot as Tuesday, but with better chances of precip,
especially late in the day over southern Indiana.

Best shot at showers and storms will be Wednesday night with the
cold front. Will carry high-end chance POPs with confidence in
timing being the main limiting factor. There will be strong
instability ahead of the front and decent mid-level winds, but
nocturnal timing is not as favorable for severe storms. Dynamics are
just enough to support some organization, so can`t completely rule
out a few strong storms. Will continue to mention in HWO.

Latter part of the week will be marked by east coast trofiness and
NW flow over the Ohio Valley. Temps will run a few degrees below
normal Thu-Sat, especially by day. Surface high over the Great Lakes
will provide at least a day of dry wx and comfortable humidity
levels on Friday. Rain chances return on Saturday as the next system
takes shape in a flattening NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

LIFR cigs have pushed into KLEX and KBWG early this morning as
an unseasonably cool airmass interacts with copious low-level
moisture.  KSDF has even gone high-end IFR as some light rain
overnight has helped cigs to slowly lower.  Given only light winds
expected today and no real entrainment of drier air, think these low
clouds will be slow to mix out, with KBWG and KLEX likely not going
VFR until this afternoon.  However, it appears that by this
afternoon all sites should return to VFR.  A stray shower is
possible at any site this morning into early this afternoon, with
the best coverage likely occurring near KLEX.

Conditions may once again deteriorate tonight, with light fog and/or
low cigs possible once again, especially towards KLEX.  Given the
uncertainty in the amount of available low-level moisture, will
leave restrictions out of KBWG and KSDF for now, but they may be
needed in coming forecast packages.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201049
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
649 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an upper trough
across the Great Lakes region extending into the Ohio Valley, with
an upstream ridge located off the West Coast.  This trough will
begin to finally lose its grip over the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, leading to a warming trend for the start of the
workweek.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak inverted surface trough
located from southwest to northeast, bisecting the state of
Kentucky.  An approaching shortwave trough visible on WV imagery has
led to the development of a weak surface low across southern KY
along the aforementioned trough.  To the northwest of this surface
low, showers have recently increased in coverage along a weak 850mb
front.

These light showers will continue through the remainder of the
morning hours into the afternoon, before tapering off from west to
east throughout the day as the shortwave trough passes through and
the surface low weakens and meanders east.  It appears the best
coverage of these showers will be to the north and east of the weak
low, which puts the Lake Cumberland region and the Northern
Bluegrass at the greatest risk (30% coverage).  Forecast soundings
in these areas continue to support a very isolated risk of a
thunderstorm early this afternoon, thus will continue thunder
mention in the forecast.  Highs today will be quite tricky, as
NAM/GFS guidance differs quite a bit on the depth of the low-level
moisture.  Given the general pattern we`ve been stuck in and no real
entrainment of drier low-level air, have leaned toward the cloudier
NAM solution.  This keeps clouds around through much of the day
across the Northern Bluegrass, which should once again help hold
highs down in the upper 70s to perhaps a few lower 80s.  Further
west towards the I-65 corridor, a few peaks of sunshine this
afternoon should help temperatures rebound into the low to mid 80s.

The upper-level trough will finally begin to lose its grip on the
Ohio Valley tonight, which should allow for a drier forecast.
Cannot rule out a stray shower over near the I-75 corridor along the
stubborn inverted surface trough, but the potential looks too low to
warrant mention in the forecast at this time.  Overnight lows will
be in the mid 60s.

Things will begin to warm up on Monday, as 850mb temperatures warm
to around 17-18C.  In addition, sunshine looks to finally break out
in earnest Monday afternoon.  However, it appears as if winds will
remain quite light and easterly, which will temper the warm up a
bit, thus highs in the mid to upper 80s seem reasonable, with a few
of the typical warm spots touching 90.  Will continue to leave a
very slight chance of a thunderstorm near the surface trough across
the far eastern CWA, but this may be able to removed in the next
forecast package as it appears the threat is trending further
east.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Main synoptic influence Tuesday into Wednesday will be the hot ridge
building over the Rockies. Better model agreement with each
successive run that the ridge axis will extend eastward somewhere
near 38N, with strong capping over our northern and western
counties, especially on Tuesday. Will keep trending the forecast to
reflect this, pushing highs solidly into the lower 90s, with the
heat island of Metro Louisville creeping into the mid 90s. Heat
indices will be close to 100. Will also keep suppressing the POPs
farther south and east, with chance POPs limited to Lake Cumberland
and even holding the slight chance south of the Western Kentucky and
Bluegrass Parkways.

Pattern amplifies on Wednesday with heights falling as a NW flow
impulse pushes the cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Should be just
about as hot as Tuesday, but with better chances of precip,
especially late in the day over southern Indiana.

Best shot at showers and storms will be Wednesday night with the
cold front. Will carry high-end chance POPs with confidence in
timing being the main limiting factor. There will be strong
instability ahead of the front and decent mid-level winds, but
nocturnal timing is not as favorable for severe storms. Dynamics are
just enough to support some organization, so can`t completely rule
out a few strong storms. Will continue to mention in HWO.

Latter part of the week will be marked by east coast trofiness and
NW flow over the Ohio Valley. Temps will run a few degrees below
normal Thu-Sat, especially by day. Surface high over the Great Lakes
will provide at least a day of dry wx and comfortable humidity
levels on Friday. Rain chances return on Saturday as the next system
takes shape in a flattening NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

LIFR cigs have pushed into KLEX and KBWG early this morning as
an unseasonably cool airmass interacts with copious low-level
moisture.  KSDF has even gone high-end IFR as some light rain
overnight has helped cigs to slowly lower.  Given only light winds
expected today and no real entrainment of drier air, think these low
clouds will be slow to mix out, with KBWG and KLEX likely not going
VFR until this afternoon.  However, it appears that by this
afternoon all sites should return to VFR.  A stray shower is
possible at any site this morning into early this afternoon, with
the best coverage likely occurring near KLEX.

Conditions may once again deteriorate tonight, with light fog and/or
low cigs possible once again, especially towards KLEX.  Given the
uncertainty in the amount of available low-level moisture, will
leave restrictions out of KBWG and KSDF for now, but they may be
needed in coming forecast packages.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200706
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an upper trough
across the Great Lakes region extending into the Ohio Valley, with
an upstream ridge located off the West Coast.  This trough will
begin to finally lose its grip over the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, leading to a warming trend for the start of the
workweek.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak inverted surface trough
located from southwest to northeast, bisecting the state of
Kentucky.  An approaching shortwave trough visible on WV imagery has
led to the development of a weak surface low across southern KY
along the aforementioned trough.  To the northwest of this surface
low, showers have recently increased in coverage along a weak 850mb
front.

These light showers will continue through the remainder of the
morning hours into the afternoon, before tapering off from west to
east throughout the day as the shortwave trough passes through and
the surface low weakens and meanders east.  It appears the best
coverage of these showers will be to the north and east of the weak
low, which puts the Lake Cumberland region and the Northern
Bluegrass at the greatest risk (30% coverage).  Forecast soundings
in these areas continue to support a very isolated risk of a
thunderstorm early this afternoon, thus will continue thunder
mention in the forecast.  Highs today will be quite tricky, as
NAM/GFS guidance differs quite a bit on the depth of the low-level
moisture.  Given the general pattern we`ve been stuck in and no real
entrainment of drier low-level air, have leaned toward the cloudier
NAM solution.  This keeps clouds around through much of the day
across the Northern Bluegrass, which should once again help hold
highs down in the upper 70s to perhaps a few lower 80s.  Further
west towards the I-65 corridor, a few peaks of sunshine this
afternoon should help temperatures rebound into the low to mid 80s.

The upper-level trough will finally begin to lose its grip on the
Ohio Valley tonight, which should allow for a drier forecast.
Cannot rule out a stray shower over near the I-75 corridor along the
stubborn inverted surface trough, but the potential looks too low to
warrant mention in the forecast at this time.  Overnight lows will
be in the mid 60s.

Things will begin to warm up on Monday, as 850mb temperatures warm
to around 17-18C.  In addition, sunshine looks to finally break out
in earnest Monday afternoon.  However, it appears as if winds will
remain quite light and easterly, which will temper the warm up a
bit, thus highs in the mid to upper 80s seem reasonable, with a few
of the typical warm spots touching 90.  Will continue to leave a
very slight chance of a thunderstorm near the surface trough across
the far eastern CWA, but this may be able to removed in the next
forecast package as it appears the threat is trending further
east.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Main synoptic influence Tuesday into Wednesday will be the hot ridge
building over the Rockies. Better model agreement with each
successive run that the ridge axis will extend eastward somewhere
near 38N, with strong capping over our northern and western
counties, especially on Tuesday. Will keep trending the forecast to
reflect this, pushing highs solidly into the lower 90s, with the
heat island of Metro Louisville creeping into the mid 90s. Heat
indices will be close to 100. Will also keep suppressing the POPs
farther south and east, with chance POPs limited to Lake Cumberland
and even holding the slight chance south of the Western Kentucky and
Bluegrass Parkways.

Pattern amplifies on Wednesday with heights falling as a NW flow
impulse pushes the cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Should be just
about as hot as Tuesday, but with better chances of precip,
especially late in the day over southern Indiana.

Best shot at showers and storms will be Wednesday night with the
cold front. Will carry high-end chance POPs with confidence in
timing being the main limiting factor. There will be strong
instability ahead of the front and decent mid-level winds, but
nocturnal timing is not as favorable for severe storms. Dynamics are
just enough to support some organization, so can`t completely rule
out a few strong storms. Will continue to mention in HWO.

Latter part of the week will be marked by east coast trofiness and
NW flow over the Ohio Valley. Temps will run a few degrees below
normal Thu-Sat, especially by day. Surface high over the Great Lakes
will provide at least a day of dry wx and comfortable humidity
levels on Friday. Rain chances return on Saturday as the next system
takes shape in a flattening NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A rather unusual pattern for mid-July continues across the Ohio
Valley early this morning, as unseasonably cool air is colliding
with a moist airmass, leading to low stratus and light fog.  IFR
cigs have already built into KBWG and KLEX, and these will likely
lower through the remainder of the overnight hours.  Given the
generally calm winds, think these cigs could continue to lower a few
hundred feet which will put both KLEX and KBWG into LIFR
conditions.  The potential for IFR cigs is not quite as high over at
KSDF, as they did not receive measurable precip today and slightly
drier air has worked in.  Therefore, will leave IFR cigs out, but
there still may be a period of fuel-alternate stratus for a couple
hours on either side of dawn.

As was the case yesterday, these cigs will be slow to lift through
the day today as mixing will remain limited.  Conditions will return
to VFR first at KSDF, with KBWG and KLEX likely not mixing out into
VFR cigs until the afternoon hours.  Winds will remain light and
variable through the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 200501
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
101 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1045 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Quick update to match forecast grids with ongoing observations.
Radar has quieted down some more, but would not be surprised to see
some more light rain showers and or mist pop up through the night.
Also have light enough winds that if areas see some breaks in the
cloud cover, patchy fog would develop.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Isolated showers and patchy drizzle will continue across the region
this afternoon as an upper level trough slowly shifts eastward. The
radar looks to overshooting the precipitation on the fringes of the
forecast area and precipitation rates are fairly efficient today.

Another trough will approach the area overnight and move through
tomorrow. Showers will develop again overnight as this next wave
approaches. These will be rather isolated in nature. The area of
showers will shift eastward through the day tomorrow with drying
conditions expected by tomorrow evening. As an upper level ridge
begins to build in from the west tomorrow night we should see dry
conditions overnight.

The other concern overnight will be the potential for some patchy
fog tonight. Winds will become light to calm and temperatures will
drop to the lower to mid 60s. Cross sections show ample low level
moisture will remain, so think some areas will see patchy fog,
similar to this morning.

Temperatures will be a bit warmer tomorrow, rising into the lower to
mid 80s. Lows tomorrow night will drop into the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The long term period will begin with upper level ridging working
into the area for Mon/Tues.  This will cause a return to summer like
conditions with temps rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s for
highs.  Some afternoon showers/storms may be possible east of I-65
farthest away from the ridge axis/capping and near a possible weak
sfc boundary, but even in these locations the cap may be too tough
to break for any convective development.  Therefore will keep POPs
in the 20-30% range for now.  POPs may need to be removed completely
if the latest model guidance is correct on the strength and eastward
extent of the ridge.

Wednesday will be the hottest day as the ridge maxes out over our
area before being replaced by an upper trough and cold front diving
south into the Midwest late in the day.  High temps Wed should reach
solidly into the lower 90s.  The cold front will bring showers and
storms to the region mainly Wed night according to the latest model
guidance.  This could prove to be an interesting set up with good
instability building over the region for the first half of the week
followed by a decent cold front dropping south into the Ohio
Valley.  An organized complex of storms could develop Wed night with
some of those becoming potentially strong in nature.  Storms should
exit the area Thurs morning with temps and humidity levels dropping
off to below seasonal normals once again.

Friday looks to be a dry day but storm chances will again return for
the weekend as we sit in an active northwest flow.  Temps will
likely remain below normal through the weekend with general
troughiness over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A rather unusual pattern for mid July continues across the Ohio
Valley early this morning, as unseasonably cool air is colliding
with a moist airmass, leading to low stratus and light fog. IFR
cigs have already built into KBWG and KLEX, and these will likely
lower through the remainder of the overnight hours. Given the
generally calm winds, think these cigs will continue to lower a
few hundred feet which will put both KLEX and KBWG into LIFR
conditions. The potential for IFR cigs is not quite as high over
at KSDF, as they did not receive measurable precip today and
slightly drier air has worked in. Therefore, will leave IFR cigs
out, but there still may be a period of fuel-alternate stratus for
a couple hours on either side of dawn.

As was the case yesterday, these cigs will be slow to lift through
the day today as mixing will remain limited.  Conditions will return
to VFR first at KSDF, with KBWG and KLEX likely not mixing out into
VFR cigs until the afternoon hours.  Winds will remain light and
variable through the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200501
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
101 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1045 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Quick update to match forecast grids with ongoing observations.
Radar has quieted down some more, but would not be surprised to see
some more light rain showers and or mist pop up through the night.
Also have light enough winds that if areas see some breaks in the
cloud cover, patchy fog would develop.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Isolated showers and patchy drizzle will continue across the region
this afternoon as an upper level trough slowly shifts eastward. The
radar looks to overshooting the precipitation on the fringes of the
forecast area and precipitation rates are fairly efficient today.

Another trough will approach the area overnight and move through
tomorrow. Showers will develop again overnight as this next wave
approaches. These will be rather isolated in nature. The area of
showers will shift eastward through the day tomorrow with drying
conditions expected by tomorrow evening. As an upper level ridge
begins to build in from the west tomorrow night we should see dry
conditions overnight.

The other concern overnight will be the potential for some patchy
fog tonight. Winds will become light to calm and temperatures will
drop to the lower to mid 60s. Cross sections show ample low level
moisture will remain, so think some areas will see patchy fog,
similar to this morning.

Temperatures will be a bit warmer tomorrow, rising into the lower to
mid 80s. Lows tomorrow night will drop into the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The long term period will begin with upper level ridging working
into the area for Mon/Tues.  This will cause a return to summer like
conditions with temps rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s for
highs.  Some afternoon showers/storms may be possible east of I-65
farthest away from the ridge axis/capping and near a possible weak
sfc boundary, but even in these locations the cap may be too tough
to break for any convective development.  Therefore will keep POPs
in the 20-30% range for now.  POPs may need to be removed completely
if the latest model guidance is correct on the strength and eastward
extent of the ridge.

Wednesday will be the hottest day as the ridge maxes out over our
area before being replaced by an upper trough and cold front diving
south into the Midwest late in the day.  High temps Wed should reach
solidly into the lower 90s.  The cold front will bring showers and
storms to the region mainly Wed night according to the latest model
guidance.  This could prove to be an interesting set up with good
instability building over the region for the first half of the week
followed by a decent cold front dropping south into the Ohio
Valley.  An organized complex of storms could develop Wed night with
some of those becoming potentially strong in nature.  Storms should
exit the area Thurs morning with temps and humidity levels dropping
off to below seasonal normals once again.

Friday looks to be a dry day but storm chances will again return for
the weekend as we sit in an active northwest flow.  Temps will
likely remain below normal through the weekend with general
troughiness over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A rather unusual pattern for mid July continues across the Ohio
Valley early this morning, as unseasonably cool air is colliding
with a moist airmass, leading to low stratus and light fog. IFR
cigs have already built into KBWG and KLEX, and these will likely
lower through the remainder of the overnight hours. Given the
generally calm winds, think these cigs will continue to lower a
few hundred feet which will put both KLEX and KBWG into LIFR
conditions. The potential for IFR cigs is not quite as high over
at KSDF, as they did not receive measurable precip today and
slightly drier air has worked in. Therefore, will leave IFR cigs
out, but there still may be a period of fuel-alternate stratus for
a couple hours on either side of dawn.

As was the case yesterday, these cigs will be slow to lift through
the day today as mixing will remain limited.  Conditions will return
to VFR first at KSDF, with KBWG and KLEX likely not mixing out into
VFR cigs until the afternoon hours.  Winds will remain light and
variable through the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 192338
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
738 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Isolated showers and patchy drizzle will continue across the region
this afternoon as an upper level trough slowly shifts eastward. The
radar looks to overshooting the precipitation on the fringes of the
forecast area and precipitation rates are fairly efficient today.

Another trough will approach the area overnight and move through
tomorrow. Showers will develop again overnight as this next wave
approaches. These will be rather isolated in nature. The area of
showers will shift eastward through the day tomorrow with drying
conditions expected by tomorrow evening. As an upper level ridge
begins to build in from the west tomorrow night we should see dry
conditions overnight.

The other concern overnight will be the potential for some patchy
fog tonight. Winds will become light to calm and temperatures will
drop to the lower to mid 60s. Cross sections show ample low level
moisture will remain, so think some areas will see patchy fog,
similar to this morning.

Temperatures will be a bit warmer tomorrow, rising into the lower to
mid 80s. Lows tomorrow night will drop into the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The long term period will begin with upper level ridging working
into the area for Mon/Tues.  This will cause a return to summer like
conditions with temps rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s for
highs.  Some afternoon showers/storms may be possible east of I-65
farthest away from the ridge axis/capping and near a possible weak
sfc boundary, but even in these locations the cap may be too tough
to break for any convective development.  Therefore will keep POPs
in the 20-30% range for now.  POPs may need to be removed completely
if the latest model guidance is correct on the strength and eastward
extent of the ridge.

Wednesday will be the hottest day as the ridge maxes out over our
area before being replaced by an upper trough and cold front diving
south into the Midwest late in the day.  High temps Wed should reach
solidly into the lower 90s.  The cold front will bring showers and
storms to the region mainly Wed night according to the latest model
guidance.  This could prove to be an interesting set up with good
instability building over the region for the first half of the week
followed by a decent cold front dropping south into the Ohio
Valley.  An organized complex of storms could develop Wed night with
some of those becoming potentially strong in nature.  Storms should
exit the area Thurs morning with temps and humidity levels dropping
off to below seasonal normals once again.

Friday looks to be a dry day but storm chances will again return for
the weekend as we sit in an active northwest flow.  Temps will
likely remain below normal through the weekend with general
troughiness over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Unseasonable weather pattern continues with cooler and moist
low-level air in place. Drizzle/light rains from today likely will
mean development of low stratus and or reduced visibilities
overnight. High-res guidance pegs the site that has been down the
longest today, KBWG, as the first to go down again tonight, and
likely into at least the IFR range, if not worse. Have a little
later start for the other two sites, and hold only into the low-end
MVFR category. Will have to watch trends tonight, but would not be
surprised to see them drop down to IFR as well. Another disturbance
moving across overnight may even mix in more drizzle/light rain
before daybreak. Conditions will be slow to improve Sunday, with
restricting ceilings lasting at least through the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 192338
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
738 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Isolated showers and patchy drizzle will continue across the region
this afternoon as an upper level trough slowly shifts eastward. The
radar looks to overshooting the precipitation on the fringes of the
forecast area and precipitation rates are fairly efficient today.

Another trough will approach the area overnight and move through
tomorrow. Showers will develop again overnight as this next wave
approaches. These will be rather isolated in nature. The area of
showers will shift eastward through the day tomorrow with drying
conditions expected by tomorrow evening. As an upper level ridge
begins to build in from the west tomorrow night we should see dry
conditions overnight.

The other concern overnight will be the potential for some patchy
fog tonight. Winds will become light to calm and temperatures will
drop to the lower to mid 60s. Cross sections show ample low level
moisture will remain, so think some areas will see patchy fog,
similar to this morning.

Temperatures will be a bit warmer tomorrow, rising into the lower to
mid 80s. Lows tomorrow night will drop into the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The long term period will begin with upper level ridging working
into the area for Mon/Tues.  This will cause a return to summer like
conditions with temps rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s for
highs.  Some afternoon showers/storms may be possible east of I-65
farthest away from the ridge axis/capping and near a possible weak
sfc boundary, but even in these locations the cap may be too tough
to break for any convective development.  Therefore will keep POPs
in the 20-30% range for now.  POPs may need to be removed completely
if the latest model guidance is correct on the strength and eastward
extent of the ridge.

Wednesday will be the hottest day as the ridge maxes out over our
area before being replaced by an upper trough and cold front diving
south into the Midwest late in the day.  High temps Wed should reach
solidly into the lower 90s.  The cold front will bring showers and
storms to the region mainly Wed night according to the latest model
guidance.  This could prove to be an interesting set up with good
instability building over the region for the first half of the week
followed by a decent cold front dropping south into the Ohio
Valley.  An organized complex of storms could develop Wed night with
some of those becoming potentially strong in nature.  Storms should
exit the area Thurs morning with temps and humidity levels dropping
off to below seasonal normals once again.

Friday looks to be a dry day but storm chances will again return for
the weekend as we sit in an active northwest flow.  Temps will
likely remain below normal through the weekend with general
troughiness over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Unseasonable weather pattern continues with cooler and moist
low-level air in place. Drizzle/light rains from today likely will
mean development of low stratus and or reduced visibilities
overnight. High-res guidance pegs the site that has been down the
longest today, KBWG, as the first to go down again tonight, and
likely into at least the IFR range, if not worse. Have a little
later start for the other two sites, and hold only into the low-end
MVFR category. Will have to watch trends tonight, but would not be
surprised to see them drop down to IFR as well. Another disturbance
moving across overnight may even mix in more drizzle/light rain
before daybreak. Conditions will be slow to improve Sunday, with
restricting ceilings lasting at least through the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191915
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Isolated showers and patchy drizzle will continue across the region
this afternoon as an upper level trough slowly shifts eastward. The
radar looks to overshooting the precipitation on the fringes of the
forecast area and precipitation rates are fairly efficient today.

Another trough will approach the area overnight and move through
tomorrow. Showers will develop again overnight as this next wave
approaches. These will be rather isolated in nature. The area of
showers will shift eastward through the day tomorrow with drying
conditions expected by tomorrow evening. As an upper level ridge
begins to build in from the west tomorrow night we should see dry
conditions overnight.

The other concern overnight will be the potential for some patchy
fog tonight. Winds will become light to calm and temperatures will
drop to the lower to mid 60s. Cross sections show ample low level
moisture will remain, so think some areas will see patchy fog,
similar to this morning.

Temperatures will be a bit warmer tomorrow, rising into the lower to
mid 80s. Lows tomorrow night will drop into the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The long term period will begin with upper level ridging working
into the area for Mon/Tues.  This will cause a return to summer like
conditions with temps rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s for
highs.  Some afternoon showers/storms may be possible east of I-65
farthest away from the ridge axis/capping and near a possible weak
sfc boundary, but even in these locations the cap may be too tough
to break for any convective development.  Therefore will keep POPs
in the 20-30% range for now.  POPs may need to be removed completely
if the latest model guidance is correct on the strength and eastward
extent of the ridge.

Wednesday will be the hottest day as the ridge maxes out over our
area before being replaced by an upper trough and cold front diving
south into the Midwest late in the day.  High temps Wed should reach
solidly into the lower 90s.  The cold front will bring showers and
storms to the region mainly Wed night according to the latest model
guidance.  This could prove to be an interesting set up with good
instability building over the region for the first half of the week
followed by a decent cold front dropping south into the Ohio
Valley.  An organized complex of storms could develop Wed night with
some of those becoming potentially strong in nature.  Storms should
exit the area Thurs morning with temps and humidity levels dropping
off to below seasonal normals once again.

Friday looks to be a dry day but storm chances will again return for
the weekend as we sit in an active northwest flow.  Temps will
likely remain below normal through the weekend with general
troughiness over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Low ceiling and light showers and/or drizzle will continue to affect
the terminals this afternoon. LEX and SDF should remain MVFR. BWG
looks to stay IFR for the next few hours at least. As the first
upper level disturbance moves east of the area this afternoon, some
improvement is expected at all sites by around 22-00Z. SDF and LEX
could see at least a few hours of VFR conditions.

Overnight the next upper level disturbance will move in. Low level
moisture will remain in place through at least mid day tomorrow.
Guidance is indicating that ceilings and visibilities will lower
back down overnight. BWG and LEX are expected to drop back to IFR
with ceilings below 1000 ft. early tomorrow morning. BWG may fall
below this with ceilings and visibilities dropping to LIFR. SDF is
expected to stay MVFR but some light fog may form. Conditions should
improve around mid day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191757
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
157 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Isolated showers continue this afternoon, mainly east of I-65. Did
another update to pops for this afternoon to reflect current radar
trends. Also added in patch drizzle across the region through the
remainder of the afternoon hours. With the extensive cloud cover and
showers we have had, temperatures have remained quite cool. Given
this, adjusted the high temperatures down a bit across the board.

Issued at 845 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Showers this morning have not spread north as quickly as anticipated
in the previous forecast and are not as widespread across portions
of the Bluegrass. Updated the pop grids this morning to lower
chances across portions of the area. Still expect that rain chances
will decrease late this morning into the afternoon hours. Made some
other minor edits to the grids to reflect current observations as
well as more cloud cover across southern Indiana.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The synoptic pattern this morning is quite unusual for mid July, as
an amplified regime remains in place across the CONUS.  This has
placed the Ohio Valley within a broad upper trough, which will begin
to weaken and slowly deamplify throughout the short term period.

The region remains in a general lull in shower activity early this
morning.  However, a low-level jet continues to strengthen this
morning, with the nose of it edging into central TN as of this
writing.  This region of isentropic ascent will continue to push
north/northeast through the early morning hours, helping to spread
the slug of precipitation across central TN into southern and
central KY this morning.  The veering of this jet through the
morning hours will help keep the bulk of the precipitation along and
east of I-65, with the best coverage occurring near the I-75
corridor.  Forecast soundings show very little potential for thunder
with this activity given weak mid-level lapse rates, thus have kept
it out of the forecast.

After these morning rains, conditions will begin to improve from
west to east through the afternoon.  Think clouds will remain around
throughout much of the day (especially over toward the I-75
corridor), but forcing for precipitation looks quite nebulous by the
mid to late afternoon hours.  Therefore, have reduced pops quite a
bit for this afternoon as drier mid-level air works in behind the
departing trough axis.  With the clouds hanging around, have gone
quite cool across the Northern Bluegrass for high temperatures.
These areas may struggle to get out of the 60s in heavy cloud
cover.  Further west across southern IN and north-central KY, some
peaks of sun appear more probable this afternoon, thus temperatures
in the upper 70s and lower 80s seem attainable.

A secondary trough axis will swing through the region late tonight
into Sunday.  However, moisture will be less abundant with this
feature, thus think precipitation coverage will continue to remain
sparse (20-30 percent range) and mainly confined to areas east of
I-65.  Forecast soundings show better potential for thunder on
Sunday, thus will continue with thunder mention in the forecast.
After lows in the low to mid 60s tonight, highs Sunday will rebound
into the low and mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The main weather player for the first half of next week will be a
strong ridge over the western CONUS. Still questionable as to how
amplified this feature will get, and how strongly the ridge will be
able to nose eastward into the Ohio Valley. GFS is more bullish with
this hot and dusty pattern, while the 00Z run is the first time the
ECMWF has tried to pump up the heights east of the Mississippi. For
now will continue to carry diurnally driven 20-30 POPs mainly east
of I-65, and highs just getting into the lower 90s Tue-Wed. However,
if the latest model trends continue, that forecast may not be hot or
dry enough as extended GFS MOS pushes highs into the mid 90s.

By Wednesday night/Thursday, the longwave pattern will amplify with
a respectable trof being carved out over the eastern CONUS, and a
cold front diving SE through the Ohio Valley, providing our best
precip chances of the week. Mid-level flow picks up with this
system, so some organization to the convection is possible, but will
not play that up until the timing becomes more clear.

Confidence at the end of the week is a bit limited due to NW flow
aloft, but there is decent agreement on a surface high building down
through the western Great Lakes, and bringing in a modified Canadian
air mass with temps below normal and yet another break from
summertime humidity.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Low ceiling and light showers and/or drizzle will continue to affect
the terminals this afternoon. LEX and SDF should remain MVFR. BWG
looks to stay IFR for the next few hours at least. As the first
upper level disturbance moves east of the area this afternoon, some
improvement is expected at all sites by around 22-00Z. SDF and LEX
could see at least a few hours of VFR conditions.

Overnight the next upper level disturbance will move in. Low level
moisture will remain in place through at least mid day tomorrow.
Guidance is indicating that ceilings and visibilities will lower
back down overnight. BWG and LEX are expected to drop back to IFR
with ceilings below 1000 ft. early tomorrow morning. BWG may fall
below this with ceilings and visibilities dropping to LIFR. SDF is
expected to stay MVFR but some light fog may form. Conditions should
improve around mid day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191757
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
157 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Isolated showers continue this afternoon, mainly east of I-65. Did
another update to pops for this afternoon to reflect current radar
trends. Also added in patch drizzle across the region through the
remainder of the afternoon hours. With the extensive cloud cover and
showers we have had, temperatures have remained quite cool. Given
this, adjusted the high temperatures down a bit across the board.

Issued at 845 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Showers this morning have not spread north as quickly as anticipated
in the previous forecast and are not as widespread across portions
of the Bluegrass. Updated the pop grids this morning to lower
chances across portions of the area. Still expect that rain chances
will decrease late this morning into the afternoon hours. Made some
other minor edits to the grids to reflect current observations as
well as more cloud cover across southern Indiana.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The synoptic pattern this morning is quite unusual for mid July, as
an amplified regime remains in place across the CONUS.  This has
placed the Ohio Valley within a broad upper trough, which will begin
to weaken and slowly deamplify throughout the short term period.

The region remains in a general lull in shower activity early this
morning.  However, a low-level jet continues to strengthen this
morning, with the nose of it edging into central TN as of this
writing.  This region of isentropic ascent will continue to push
north/northeast through the early morning hours, helping to spread
the slug of precipitation across central TN into southern and
central KY this morning.  The veering of this jet through the
morning hours will help keep the bulk of the precipitation along and
east of I-65, with the best coverage occurring near the I-75
corridor.  Forecast soundings show very little potential for thunder
with this activity given weak mid-level lapse rates, thus have kept
it out of the forecast.

After these morning rains, conditions will begin to improve from
west to east through the afternoon.  Think clouds will remain around
throughout much of the day (especially over toward the I-75
corridor), but forcing for precipitation looks quite nebulous by the
mid to late afternoon hours.  Therefore, have reduced pops quite a
bit for this afternoon as drier mid-level air works in behind the
departing trough axis.  With the clouds hanging around, have gone
quite cool across the Northern Bluegrass for high temperatures.
These areas may struggle to get out of the 60s in heavy cloud
cover.  Further west across southern IN and north-central KY, some
peaks of sun appear more probable this afternoon, thus temperatures
in the upper 70s and lower 80s seem attainable.

A secondary trough axis will swing through the region late tonight
into Sunday.  However, moisture will be less abundant with this
feature, thus think precipitation coverage will continue to remain
sparse (20-30 percent range) and mainly confined to areas east of
I-65.  Forecast soundings show better potential for thunder on
Sunday, thus will continue with thunder mention in the forecast.
After lows in the low to mid 60s tonight, highs Sunday will rebound
into the low and mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The main weather player for the first half of next week will be a
strong ridge over the western CONUS. Still questionable as to how
amplified this feature will get, and how strongly the ridge will be
able to nose eastward into the Ohio Valley. GFS is more bullish with
this hot and dusty pattern, while the 00Z run is the first time the
ECMWF has tried to pump up the heights east of the Mississippi. For
now will continue to carry diurnally driven 20-30 POPs mainly east
of I-65, and highs just getting into the lower 90s Tue-Wed. However,
if the latest model trends continue, that forecast may not be hot or
dry enough as extended GFS MOS pushes highs into the mid 90s.

By Wednesday night/Thursday, the longwave pattern will amplify with
a respectable trof being carved out over the eastern CONUS, and a
cold front diving SE through the Ohio Valley, providing our best
precip chances of the week. Mid-level flow picks up with this
system, so some organization to the convection is possible, but will
not play that up until the timing becomes more clear.

Confidence at the end of the week is a bit limited due to NW flow
aloft, but there is decent agreement on a surface high building down
through the western Great Lakes, and bringing in a modified Canadian
air mass with temps below normal and yet another break from
summertime humidity.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Low ceiling and light showers and/or drizzle will continue to affect
the terminals this afternoon. LEX and SDF should remain MVFR. BWG
looks to stay IFR for the next few hours at least. As the first
upper level disturbance moves east of the area this afternoon, some
improvement is expected at all sites by around 22-00Z. SDF and LEX
could see at least a few hours of VFR conditions.

Overnight the next upper level disturbance will move in. Low level
moisture will remain in place through at least mid day tomorrow.
Guidance is indicating that ceilings and visibilities will lower
back down overnight. BWG and LEX are expected to drop back to IFR
with ceilings below 1000 ft. early tomorrow morning. BWG may fall
below this with ceilings and visibilities dropping to LIFR. SDF is
expected to stay MVFR but some light fog may form. Conditions should
improve around mid day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 191727
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
127 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 845 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Showers this morning have not spread north as quickly as anticipated
in the previous forecast and are not as widespread across portions
of the Bluegrass. Updated the pop grids this morning to lower
chances across portions of the area. Still expect that rain chances
will decrease late this morning into the afternoon hours. Made some
other minor edits to the grids to reflect current observations as
well as more cloud cover across southern Indiana.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The synoptic pattern this morning is quite unusual for mid July, as
an amplified regime remains in place across the CONUS.  This has
placed the Ohio Valley within a broad upper trough, which will begin
to weaken and slowly deamplify throughout the short term period.

The region remains in a general lull in shower activity early this
morning.  However, a low-level jet continues to strengthen this
morning, with the nose of it edging into central TN as of this
writing.  This region of isentropic ascent will continue to push
north/northeast through the early morning hours, helping to spread
the slug of precipitation across central TN into southern and
central KY this morning.  The veering of this jet through the
morning hours will help keep the bulk of the precipitation along and
east of I-65, with the best coverage occurring near the I-75
corridor.  Forecast soundings show very little potential for thunder
with this activity given weak mid-level lapse rates, thus have kept
it out of the forecast.

After these morning rains, conditions will begin to improve from
west to east through the afternoon.  Think clouds will remain around
throughout much of the day (especially over toward the I-75
corridor), but forcing for precipitation looks quite nebulous by the
mid to late afternoon hours.  Therefore, have reduced pops quite a
bit for this afternoon as drier mid-level air works in behind the
departing trough axis.  With the clouds hanging around, have gone
quite cool across the Northern Bluegrass for high temperatures.
These areas may struggle to get out of the 60s in heavy cloud
cover.  Further west across southern IN and north-central KY, some
peaks of sun appear more probable this afternoon, thus temperatures
in the upper 70s and lower 80s seem attainable.

A secondary trough axis will swing through the region late tonight
into Sunday.  However, moisture will be less abundant with this
feature, thus think precipitation coverage will continue to remain
sparse (20-30 percent range) and mainly confined to areas east of
I-65.  Forecast soundings show better potential for thunder on
Sunday, thus will continue with thunder mention in the forecast.
After lows in the low to mid 60s tonight, highs Sunday will rebound
into the low and mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The main weather player for the first half of next week will be a
strong ridge over the western CONUS. Still questionable as to how
amplified this feature will get, and how strongly the ridge will be
able to nose eastward into the Ohio Valley. GFS is more bullish with
this hot and dusty pattern, while the 00Z run is the first time the
ECMWF has tried to pump up the heights east of the Mississippi. For
now will continue to carry diurnally driven 20-30 POPs mainly east
of I-65, and highs just getting into the lower 90s Tue-Wed. However,
if the latest model trends continue, that forecast may not be hot or
dry enough as extended GFS MOS pushes highs into the mid 90s.

By Wednesday night/Thursday, the longwave pattern will amplify with
a respectable trof being carved out over the eastern CONUS, and a
cold front diving SE through the Ohio Valley, providing our best
precip chances of the week. Mid-level flow picks up with this
system, so some organization to the convection is possible, but will
not play that up until the timing becomes more clear.

Confidence at the end of the week is a bit limited due to NW flow
aloft, but there is decent agreement on a surface high building down
through the western Great Lakes, and bringing in a modified Canadian
air mass with temps below normal and yet another break from
summertime humidity.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Low ceiling and light showers and/or drizzle will continue to affect
the terminals this afternoon. LEX and SDF should remain MVFR. BWG
looks to stay IFR for the next few hours at least. As the first
upper level disturbance moves east of the area this afternoon, some
improvement is expected at all sites by around 22-00Z. SDF and LEX
could see at least a few hours of VFR conditions.

Overnight the next upper level disturbance will move in. Low level
moisture will remain in place through at least mid day tomorrow.
Guidance is indicating that ceilings and visibilities will lower
back down overnight. BWG and LEX are expected to drop back to IFR
with ceilings below 1000 ft. early tomorrow morning. BWG may fall
below this with ceilings and visibilities dropping to LIFR. SDF is
expected to stay MVFR but some light fog may form. Conditions should
improve around mid day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 191727
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
127 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 845 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Showers this morning have not spread north as quickly as anticipated
in the previous forecast and are not as widespread across portions
of the Bluegrass. Updated the pop grids this morning to lower
chances across portions of the area. Still expect that rain chances
will decrease late this morning into the afternoon hours. Made some
other minor edits to the grids to reflect current observations as
well as more cloud cover across southern Indiana.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The synoptic pattern this morning is quite unusual for mid July, as
an amplified regime remains in place across the CONUS.  This has
placed the Ohio Valley within a broad upper trough, which will begin
to weaken and slowly deamplify throughout the short term period.

The region remains in a general lull in shower activity early this
morning.  However, a low-level jet continues to strengthen this
morning, with the nose of it edging into central TN as of this
writing.  This region of isentropic ascent will continue to push
north/northeast through the early morning hours, helping to spread
the slug of precipitation across central TN into southern and
central KY this morning.  The veering of this jet through the
morning hours will help keep the bulk of the precipitation along and
east of I-65, with the best coverage occurring near the I-75
corridor.  Forecast soundings show very little potential for thunder
with this activity given weak mid-level lapse rates, thus have kept
it out of the forecast.

After these morning rains, conditions will begin to improve from
west to east through the afternoon.  Think clouds will remain around
throughout much of the day (especially over toward the I-75
corridor), but forcing for precipitation looks quite nebulous by the
mid to late afternoon hours.  Therefore, have reduced pops quite a
bit for this afternoon as drier mid-level air works in behind the
departing trough axis.  With the clouds hanging around, have gone
quite cool across the Northern Bluegrass for high temperatures.
These areas may struggle to get out of the 60s in heavy cloud
cover.  Further west across southern IN and north-central KY, some
peaks of sun appear more probable this afternoon, thus temperatures
in the upper 70s and lower 80s seem attainable.

A secondary trough axis will swing through the region late tonight
into Sunday.  However, moisture will be less abundant with this
feature, thus think precipitation coverage will continue to remain
sparse (20-30 percent range) and mainly confined to areas east of
I-65.  Forecast soundings show better potential for thunder on
Sunday, thus will continue with thunder mention in the forecast.
After lows in the low to mid 60s tonight, highs Sunday will rebound
into the low and mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The main weather player for the first half of next week will be a
strong ridge over the western CONUS. Still questionable as to how
amplified this feature will get, and how strongly the ridge will be
able to nose eastward into the Ohio Valley. GFS is more bullish with
this hot and dusty pattern, while the 00Z run is the first time the
ECMWF has tried to pump up the heights east of the Mississippi. For
now will continue to carry diurnally driven 20-30 POPs mainly east
of I-65, and highs just getting into the lower 90s Tue-Wed. However,
if the latest model trends continue, that forecast may not be hot or
dry enough as extended GFS MOS pushes highs into the mid 90s.

By Wednesday night/Thursday, the longwave pattern will amplify with
a respectable trof being carved out over the eastern CONUS, and a
cold front diving SE through the Ohio Valley, providing our best
precip chances of the week. Mid-level flow picks up with this
system, so some organization to the convection is possible, but will
not play that up until the timing becomes more clear.

Confidence at the end of the week is a bit limited due to NW flow
aloft, but there is decent agreement on a surface high building down
through the western Great Lakes, and bringing in a modified Canadian
air mass with temps below normal and yet another break from
summertime humidity.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Low ceiling and light showers and/or drizzle will continue to affect
the terminals this afternoon. LEX and SDF should remain MVFR. BWG
looks to stay IFR for the next few hours at least. As the first
upper level disturbance moves east of the area this afternoon, some
improvement is expected at all sites by around 22-00Z. SDF and LEX
could see at least a few hours of VFR conditions.

Overnight the next upper level disturbance will move in. Low level
moisture will remain in place through at least mid day tomorrow.
Guidance is indicating that ceilings and visibilities will lower
back down overnight. BWG and LEX are expected to drop back to IFR
with ceilings below 1000 ft. early tomorrow morning. BWG may fall
below this with ceilings and visibilities dropping to LIFR. SDF is
expected to stay MVFR but some light fog may form. Conditions should
improve around mid day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191247
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
847 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 845 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Showers this morning have not spread north as quickly as anticipated
in the previous forecast and are not as widespread across portions
of the Bluegrass. Updated the pop grids this morning to lower
chances across portions of the area. Still expect that rain chances
will decrease late this morning into the afternoon hours. Made some
other minor edits to the grids to reflect current observations as
well as more cloud cover across southern Indiana.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The synoptic pattern this morning is quite unusual for mid July, as
an amplified regime remains in place across the CONUS.  This has
placed the Ohio Valley within a broad upper trough, which will begin
to weaken and slowly deamplify throughout the short term period.

The region remains in a general lull in shower activity early this
morning.  However, a low-level jet continues to strengthen this
morning, with the nose of it edging into central TN as of this
writing.  This region of isentropic ascent will continue to push
north/northeast through the early morning hours, helping to spread
the slug of precipitation across central TN into southern and
central KY this morning.  The veering of this jet through the
morning hours will help keep the bulk of the precipitation along and
east of I-65, with the best coverage occurring near the I-75
corridor.  Forecast soundings show very little potential for thunder
with this activity given weak mid-level lapse rates, thus have kept
it out of the forecast.

After these morning rains, conditions will begin to improve from
west to east through the afternoon.  Think clouds will remain around
throughout much of the day (especially over toward the I-75
corridor), but forcing for precipitation looks quite nebulous by the
mid to late afternoon hours.  Therefore, have reduced pops quite a
bit for this afternoon as drier mid-level air works in behind the
departing trough axis.  With the clouds hanging around, have gone
quite cool across the Northern Bluegrass for high temperatures.
These areas may struggle to get out of the 60s in heavy cloud
cover.  Further west across southern IN and north-central KY, some
peaks of sun appear more probable this afternoon, thus temperatures
in the upper 70s and lower 80s seem attainable.

A secondary trough axis will swing through the region late tonight
into Sunday.  However, moisture will be less abundant with this
feature, thus think precipitation coverage will continue to remain
sparse (20-30 percent range) and mainly confined to areas east of
I-65.  Forecast soundings show better potential for thunder on
Sunday, thus will continue with thunder mention in the forecast.
After lows in the low to mid 60s tonight, highs Sunday will rebound
into the low and mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The main weather player for the first half of next week will be a
strong ridge over the western CONUS. Still questionable as to how
amplified this feature will get, and how strongly the ridge will be
able to nose eastward into the Ohio Valley. GFS is more bullish with
this hot and dusty pattern, while the 00Z run is the first time the
ECMWF has tried to pump up the heights east of the Mississippi. For
now will continue to carry diurnally driven 20-30 POPs mainly east
of I-65, and highs just getting into the lower 90s Tue-Wed. However,
if the latest model trends continue, that forecast may not be hot or
dry enough as extended GFS MOS pushes highs into the mid 90s.

By Wednesday night/Thursday, the longwave pattern will amplify with
a respectable trof being carved out over the eastern CONUS, and a
cold front diving SE through the Ohio Valley, providing our best
precip chances of the week. Mid-level flow picks up with this
system, so some organization to the convection is possible, but will
not play that up until the timing becomes more clear.

Confidence at the end of the week is a bit limited due to NW flow
aloft, but there is decent agreement on a surface high building down
through the western Great Lakes, and bringing in a modified Canadian
air mass with temps below normal and yet another break from
summertime humidity.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Low ceilings and associated showers continue to push into the
terminals from south to north.  Outside of these showers, ceilings
have largely remained VFR to high-end MVFR.  However, as moisture
continues to push up from the south in advance of the incoming
system, think conditions will deteriorate over the next few hours at
all sites (KBWG already down to IFR cigs in some light rain as of
this writing).  Still think the best chance for these IFR conditions
will be at KLEX and KBWG.  With KSDF on the edge of the drier air,
will be a bit more optimistic and keep conditions low-end MVFR as
these light showers attempt to push in this morning.

Otherwise, conditions will slowly improve this afternoon as cigs
begin to slowly rise from west to east.  May be a bit too optimistic
in raising cigs to VFR this afternoon, especially at KLEX.
Regardless, it appears as if more restrictions (possibly IFR) will
develop at all sites once again tonight as another weak system
interacts with the low-level moisture in place.  Winds throughout
the period will remain rather light out of the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 191247
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
847 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 845 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Showers this morning have not spread north as quickly as anticipated
in the previous forecast and are not as widespread across portions
of the Bluegrass. Updated the pop grids this morning to lower
chances across portions of the area. Still expect that rain chances
will decrease late this morning into the afternoon hours. Made some
other minor edits to the grids to reflect current observations as
well as more cloud cover across southern Indiana.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The synoptic pattern this morning is quite unusual for mid July, as
an amplified regime remains in place across the CONUS.  This has
placed the Ohio Valley within a broad upper trough, which will begin
to weaken and slowly deamplify throughout the short term period.

The region remains in a general lull in shower activity early this
morning.  However, a low-level jet continues to strengthen this
morning, with the nose of it edging into central TN as of this
writing.  This region of isentropic ascent will continue to push
north/northeast through the early morning hours, helping to spread
the slug of precipitation across central TN into southern and
central KY this morning.  The veering of this jet through the
morning hours will help keep the bulk of the precipitation along and
east of I-65, with the best coverage occurring near the I-75
corridor.  Forecast soundings show very little potential for thunder
with this activity given weak mid-level lapse rates, thus have kept
it out of the forecast.

After these morning rains, conditions will begin to improve from
west to east through the afternoon.  Think clouds will remain around
throughout much of the day (especially over toward the I-75
corridor), but forcing for precipitation looks quite nebulous by the
mid to late afternoon hours.  Therefore, have reduced pops quite a
bit for this afternoon as drier mid-level air works in behind the
departing trough axis.  With the clouds hanging around, have gone
quite cool across the Northern Bluegrass for high temperatures.
These areas may struggle to get out of the 60s in heavy cloud
cover.  Further west across southern IN and north-central KY, some
peaks of sun appear more probable this afternoon, thus temperatures
in the upper 70s and lower 80s seem attainable.

A secondary trough axis will swing through the region late tonight
into Sunday.  However, moisture will be less abundant with this
feature, thus think precipitation coverage will continue to remain
sparse (20-30 percent range) and mainly confined to areas east of
I-65.  Forecast soundings show better potential for thunder on
Sunday, thus will continue with thunder mention in the forecast.
After lows in the low to mid 60s tonight, highs Sunday will rebound
into the low and mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The main weather player for the first half of next week will be a
strong ridge over the western CONUS. Still questionable as to how
amplified this feature will get, and how strongly the ridge will be
able to nose eastward into the Ohio Valley. GFS is more bullish with
this hot and dusty pattern, while the 00Z run is the first time the
ECMWF has tried to pump up the heights east of the Mississippi. For
now will continue to carry diurnally driven 20-30 POPs mainly east
of I-65, and highs just getting into the lower 90s Tue-Wed. However,
if the latest model trends continue, that forecast may not be hot or
dry enough as extended GFS MOS pushes highs into the mid 90s.

By Wednesday night/Thursday, the longwave pattern will amplify with
a respectable trof being carved out over the eastern CONUS, and a
cold front diving SE through the Ohio Valley, providing our best
precip chances of the week. Mid-level flow picks up with this
system, so some organization to the convection is possible, but will
not play that up until the timing becomes more clear.

Confidence at the end of the week is a bit limited due to NW flow
aloft, but there is decent agreement on a surface high building down
through the western Great Lakes, and bringing in a modified Canadian
air mass with temps below normal and yet another break from
summertime humidity.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Low ceilings and associated showers continue to push into the
terminals from south to north.  Outside of these showers, ceilings
have largely remained VFR to high-end MVFR.  However, as moisture
continues to push up from the south in advance of the incoming
system, think conditions will deteriorate over the next few hours at
all sites (KBWG already down to IFR cigs in some light rain as of
this writing).  Still think the best chance for these IFR conditions
will be at KLEX and KBWG.  With KSDF on the edge of the drier air,
will be a bit more optimistic and keep conditions low-end MVFR as
these light showers attempt to push in this morning.

Otherwise, conditions will slowly improve this afternoon as cigs
begin to slowly rise from west to east.  May be a bit too optimistic
in raising cigs to VFR this afternoon, especially at KLEX.
Regardless, it appears as if more restrictions (possibly IFR) will
develop at all sites once again tonight as another weak system
interacts with the low-level moisture in place.  Winds throughout
the period will remain rather light out of the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191047
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
647 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The synoptic pattern this morning is quite unusual for mid July, as
an amplified regime remains in place across the CONUS.  This has
placed the Ohio Valley within a broad upper trough, which will begin
to weaken and slowly deamplify throughout the short term period.

The region remains in a general lull in shower activity early this
morning.  However, a low-level jet continues to strengthen this
morning, with the nose of it edging into central TN as of this
writing.  This region of isentropic ascent will continue to push
north/northeast through the early morning hours, helping to spread
the slug of precipitation across central TN into southern and
central KY this morning.  The veering of this jet through the
morning hours will help keep the bulk of the precipitation along and
east of I-65, with the best coverage occurring near the I-75
corridor.  Forecast soundings show very little potential for thunder
with this activity given weak mid-level lapse rates, thus have kept
it out of the forecast.

After these morning rains, conditions will begin to improve from
west to east through the afternoon.  Think clouds will remain around
throughout much of the day (especially over toward the I-75
corridor), but forcing for precipitation looks quite nebulous by the
mid to late afternoon hours.  Therefore, have reduced pops quite a
bit for this afternoon as drier mid-level air works in behind the
departing trough axis.  With the clouds hanging around, have gone
quite cool across the Northern Bluegrass for high temperatures.
These areas may struggle to get out of the 60s in heavy cloud
cover.  Further west across southern IN and north-central KY, some
peaks of sun appear more probable this afternoon, thus temperatures
in the upper 70s and lower 80s seem attainable.

A secondary trough axis will swing through the region late tonight
into Sunday.  However, moisture will be less abundant with this
feature, thus think precipitation coverage will continue to remain
sparse (20-30 percent range) and mainly confined to areas east of
I-65.  Forecast soundings show better potential for thunder on
Sunday, thus will continue with thunder mention in the forecast.
After lows in the low to mid 60s tonight, highs Sunday will rebound
into the low and mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The main weather player for the first half of next week will be a
strong ridge over the western CONUS. Still questionable as to how
amplified this feature will get, and how strongly the ridge will be
able to nose eastward into the Ohio Valley. GFS is more bullish with
this hot and dusty pattern, while the 00Z run is the first time the
ECMWF has tried to pump up the heights east of the Mississippi. For
now will continue to carry diurnally driven 20-30 POPs mainly east
of I-65, and highs just getting into the lower 90s Tue-Wed. However,
if the latest model trends continue, that forecast may not be hot or
dry enough as extended GFS MOS pushes highs into the mid 90s.

By Wednesday night/Thursday, the longwave pattern will amplify with
a respectable trof being carved out over the eastern CONUS, and a
cold front diving SE through the Ohio Valley, providing our best
precip chances of the week. Mid-level flow picks up with this
system, so some organization to the convection is possible, but will
not play that up until the timing becomes more clear.

Confidence at the end of the week is a bit limited due to NW flow
aloft, but there is decent agreement on a surface high building down
through the western Great Lakes, and bringing in a modified Canadian
air mass with temps below normal and yet another break from
summertime humidity.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Low ceilings and associated showers continue to push into the
terminals from south to north.  Outside of these showers, ceilings
have largely remained VFR to high-end MVFR.  However, as moisture
continues to push up from the south in advance of the incoming
system, think conditions will deteriorate over the next few hours at
all sites (KBWG already down to IFR cigs in some light rain as of
this writing).  Still think the best chance for these IFR conditions
will be at KLEX and KBWG.  With KSDF on the edge of the drier air,
will be a bit more optimistic and keep conditions low-end MVFR as
these light showers attempt to push in this morning.

Otherwise, conditions will slowly improve this afternoon as cigs
begin to slowly rise from west to east.  May be a bit too optimistic
in raising cigs to VFR this afternoon, especially at KLEX.
Regardless, it appears as if more restrictions (possibly IFR) will
develop at all sites once again tonight as another weak system
interacts with the low-level moisture in place.  Winds throughout
the period will remain rather light out of the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191047
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
647 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The synoptic pattern this morning is quite unusual for mid July, as
an amplified regime remains in place across the CONUS.  This has
placed the Ohio Valley within a broad upper trough, which will begin
to weaken and slowly deamplify throughout the short term period.

The region remains in a general lull in shower activity early this
morning.  However, a low-level jet continues to strengthen this
morning, with the nose of it edging into central TN as of this
writing.  This region of isentropic ascent will continue to push
north/northeast through the early morning hours, helping to spread
the slug of precipitation across central TN into southern and
central KY this morning.  The veering of this jet through the
morning hours will help keep the bulk of the precipitation along and
east of I-65, with the best coverage occurring near the I-75
corridor.  Forecast soundings show very little potential for thunder
with this activity given weak mid-level lapse rates, thus have kept
it out of the forecast.

After these morning rains, conditions will begin to improve from
west to east through the afternoon.  Think clouds will remain around
throughout much of the day (especially over toward the I-75
corridor), but forcing for precipitation looks quite nebulous by the
mid to late afternoon hours.  Therefore, have reduced pops quite a
bit for this afternoon as drier mid-level air works in behind the
departing trough axis.  With the clouds hanging around, have gone
quite cool across the Northern Bluegrass for high temperatures.
These areas may struggle to get out of the 60s in heavy cloud
cover.  Further west across southern IN and north-central KY, some
peaks of sun appear more probable this afternoon, thus temperatures
in the upper 70s and lower 80s seem attainable.

A secondary trough axis will swing through the region late tonight
into Sunday.  However, moisture will be less abundant with this
feature, thus think precipitation coverage will continue to remain
sparse (20-30 percent range) and mainly confined to areas east of
I-65.  Forecast soundings show better potential for thunder on
Sunday, thus will continue with thunder mention in the forecast.
After lows in the low to mid 60s tonight, highs Sunday will rebound
into the low and mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

The main weather player for the first half of next week will be a
strong ridge over the western CONUS. Still questionable as to how
amplified this feature will get, and how strongly the ridge will be
able to nose eastward into the Ohio Valley. GFS is more bullish with
this hot and dusty pattern, while the 00Z run is the first time the
ECMWF has tried to pump up the heights east of the Mississippi. For
now will continue to carry diurnally driven 20-30 POPs mainly east
of I-65, and highs just getting into the lower 90s Tue-Wed. However,
if the latest model trends continue, that forecast may not be hot or
dry enough as extended GFS MOS pushes highs into the mid 90s.

By Wednesday night/Thursday, the longwave pattern will amplify with
a respectable trof being carved out over the eastern CONUS, and a
cold front diving SE through the Ohio Valley, providing our best
precip chances of the week. Mid-level flow picks up with this
system, so some organization to the convection is possible, but will
not play that up until the timing becomes more clear.

Confidence at the end of the week is a bit limited due to NW flow
aloft, but there is decent agreement on a surface high building down
through the western Great Lakes, and bringing in a modified Canadian
air mass with temps below normal and yet another break from
summertime humidity.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Low ceilings and associated showers continue to push into the
terminals from south to north.  Outside of these showers, ceilings
have largely remained VFR to high-end MVFR.  However, as moisture
continues to push up from the south in advance of the incoming
system, think conditions will deteriorate over the next few hours at
all sites (KBWG already down to IFR cigs in some light rain as of
this writing).  Still think the best chance for these IFR conditions
will be at KLEX and KBWG.  With KSDF on the edge of the drier air,
will be a bit more optimistic and keep conditions low-end MVFR as
these light showers attempt to push in this morning.

Otherwise, conditions will slowly improve this afternoon as cigs
begin to slowly rise from west to east.  May be a bit too optimistic
in raising cigs to VFR this afternoon, especially at KLEX.
Regardless, it appears as if more restrictions (possibly IFR) will
develop at all sites once again tonight as another weak system
interacts with the low-level moisture in place.  Winds throughout
the period will remain rather light out of the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD







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