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000
FXUS63 KLMK 191110
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
610 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Thin strato-cu will trend towards scattering out at SDF and LEX at
the start of the TAF period, although occasional broken ceilings at
around 6k feet can be expected through the morning hours. VFR
ceilings will continue through the afternoon hours and into early
morning Saturday.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with north
winds averaging around 5kt. High and mid level cloudiness will
increase early Saturday morning, but ceilings will stay VFR. There
is a chance of very light snow or flurries developing after midnight
Saturday at BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 191110
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
610 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Thin strato-cu will trend towards scattering out at SDF and LEX at
the start of the TAF period, although occasional broken ceilings at
around 6k feet can be expected through the morning hours. VFR
ceilings will continue through the afternoon hours and into early
morning Saturday.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with north
winds averaging around 5kt. High and mid level cloudiness will
increase early Saturday morning, but ceilings will stay VFR. There
is a chance of very light snow or flurries developing after midnight
Saturday at BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190822
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Ceilings through the mid-morning hours will stay VFR with bases
above 4k feet. Some breaks in the clouds will approach SDF and LEX
after 06z, with ceilings occasionally scattering out. Ceilings will
become scattered towards dawn, with variable cloudiness expected
during the day Friday, with any ceilings staying VFR.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with
north winds averaging around 5kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190822
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Ceilings through the mid-morning hours will stay VFR with bases
above 4k feet. Some breaks in the clouds will approach SDF and LEX
after 06z, with ceilings occasionally scattering out. Ceilings will
become scattered towards dawn, with variable cloudiness expected
during the day Friday, with any ceilings staying VFR.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with
north winds averaging around 5kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190822
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Ceilings through the mid-morning hours will stay VFR with bases
above 4k feet. Some breaks in the clouds will approach SDF and LEX
after 06z, with ceilings occasionally scattering out. Ceilings will
become scattered towards dawn, with variable cloudiness expected
during the day Friday, with any ceilings staying VFR.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with
north winds averaging around 5kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 190822
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Ceilings through the mid-morning hours will stay VFR with bases
above 4k feet. Some breaks in the clouds will approach SDF and LEX
after 06z, with ceilings occasionally scattering out. Ceilings will
become scattered towards dawn, with variable cloudiness expected
during the day Friday, with any ceilings staying VFR.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with
north winds averaging around 5kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 190505
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1205 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features zonal to WSW
upper-level flow across the Ohio Valley, through which a dampening
shortwave was traveling.  This shortwave will push through the
region this evening, but another weak southern stream disturbance
will push in towards the end of the period and into the long term
period.

As expected, the very dry airmass between 900 and 750mb has largely
won out this afternoon over the region, as isentropic ascent above
this layer has not been enough to overcome it.  A few locations have
seen a few flurries/ice pellets/sprinkles, but most have remained
dry and should remain dry through the rest of the evening.

The cloud and resultant temperature forecast will be very tricky
tonight, as it does appear a few breaks in the clouds may occur
towards Friday morning.  The latest RAP/HRRR depict similar
solutions in breaking up the cloud cover tonight across portions of
central KY and southern IN.  Forecast soundings from the synoptic
models also support this potential as drier air works in in the
800-600mb layer.  Am always hesitant to forecast skies clearing this
time of year, but given the model agreement, will reduce sky cover
amounts overnight.  Still think we will see at least some cloud
cover almost all night, but large breaks coupled with generally calm
winds may allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s,
perhaps even lower if the clouds break sooner.  If they don`t break
at all, then obviously these temperatures will be way too cool.
Certainly a tricky forecast and one the evening shift will monitor.

Friday will be dry as high pressure remains in control.
Temperatures will once again be dependent on the amount of cloud
cover we see (likely more clouds in the afternoon/evening than in
the morning). Will go with highs in the upper 30s and lower
40s.

Attention will then turn to the southwest as the next system
approaches the OH and TN Valleys.  Guidance continues to suppress
this system further south, with the GFS/ECMWF on the northern end of
the envelope, while the hi-res parallel GFS/NAM/WRFs all point to a
more southern solution.  Looking at the forcing progs, really don`t
see anything to support widespread precip in our area.  The coupled
jet structure seen a day or two ago is largely gone as guidance has
now backed off the idea of a stronger northern stream jet streak.
All the low-level ascent associated with frontogenesis and low-level
moisture transport are focused well to the south of the region.
Therefore, all we really have to work with will be weak upper-level
ascent brought on by the left-exit of the southern stream jet streak
and very modest mid-level height falls as the dampening wave pushes
through.  With all this in mind, have continued to trim pops with
this package.  Kept 20-30 pops in the far southeastern CWA mainly
just to keep some forecast continuity, but suspect the drier hi-res
models will end up being right with little to no measurable precip
in our area.


.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

High pressure will be over the Upper Ohio Valley at the start of the
period. This high will ridge across our area through the weekend.
Will keep in some lower chance pops for light precip during the day
Saturday as a system passes by well south of the region. The next
precip chance is Sunday night as a weak vortmax crosses the Midwest.
This system is the first in a series of disturbances crossing our
area the next work week as a large upper low deepens across the
Great Lakes and south central Canada. These systems will bring
multiple precip chances to Christmas Day. One such system looks
to drag a surface low across the region Tuesday and then another by
the end of the work week. The exact placement of these systems will
determine the type of precipitation we get. For now, have a band of
rain/snow chances along the Ohio River Sunday night, with little if
any accumulations. The GFS has the Tuesday low going up the Ohio
River, which brings a typical line of showers through with winter
precip fighting drier air filtering in on the back side.

Much colder thicknesses come in for midweek, with an impressive
fetch of moisture from the Great Lakes potentially bringing some
rain or snow showers Christmas Eve. Then we warm up slightly on
Thursday as the next low develops across the southern Plains and
lifts a warm front back across the region.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Ceilings through the mid-morning hours will stay VFR with bases
above 4k feet. Some breaks in the clouds will approach SDF and LEX
after 06z, with ceilings occasionally scattering out. Ceilings will
become scattered towards dawn, with variable cloudiness expected
during the day Friday, with any ceilings staying VFR.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with
north winds averaging around 5kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190505
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1205 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features zonal to WSW
upper-level flow across the Ohio Valley, through which a dampening
shortwave was traveling.  This shortwave will push through the
region this evening, but another weak southern stream disturbance
will push in towards the end of the period and into the long term
period.

As expected, the very dry airmass between 900 and 750mb has largely
won out this afternoon over the region, as isentropic ascent above
this layer has not been enough to overcome it.  A few locations have
seen a few flurries/ice pellets/sprinkles, but most have remained
dry and should remain dry through the rest of the evening.

The cloud and resultant temperature forecast will be very tricky
tonight, as it does appear a few breaks in the clouds may occur
towards Friday morning.  The latest RAP/HRRR depict similar
solutions in breaking up the cloud cover tonight across portions of
central KY and southern IN.  Forecast soundings from the synoptic
models also support this potential as drier air works in in the
800-600mb layer.  Am always hesitant to forecast skies clearing this
time of year, but given the model agreement, will reduce sky cover
amounts overnight.  Still think we will see at least some cloud
cover almost all night, but large breaks coupled with generally calm
winds may allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s,
perhaps even lower if the clouds break sooner.  If they don`t break
at all, then obviously these temperatures will be way too cool.
Certainly a tricky forecast and one the evening shift will monitor.

Friday will be dry as high pressure remains in control.
Temperatures will once again be dependent on the amount of cloud
cover we see (likely more clouds in the afternoon/evening than in
the morning). Will go with highs in the upper 30s and lower
40s.

Attention will then turn to the southwest as the next system
approaches the OH and TN Valleys.  Guidance continues to suppress
this system further south, with the GFS/ECMWF on the northern end of
the envelope, while the hi-res parallel GFS/NAM/WRFs all point to a
more southern solution.  Looking at the forcing progs, really don`t
see anything to support widespread precip in our area.  The coupled
jet structure seen a day or two ago is largely gone as guidance has
now backed off the idea of a stronger northern stream jet streak.
All the low-level ascent associated with frontogenesis and low-level
moisture transport are focused well to the south of the region.
Therefore, all we really have to work with will be weak upper-level
ascent brought on by the left-exit of the southern stream jet streak
and very modest mid-level height falls as the dampening wave pushes
through.  With all this in mind, have continued to trim pops with
this package.  Kept 20-30 pops in the far southeastern CWA mainly
just to keep some forecast continuity, but suspect the drier hi-res
models will end up being right with little to no measurable precip
in our area.


.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

High pressure will be over the Upper Ohio Valley at the start of the
period. This high will ridge across our area through the weekend.
Will keep in some lower chance pops for light precip during the day
Saturday as a system passes by well south of the region. The next
precip chance is Sunday night as a weak vortmax crosses the Midwest.
This system is the first in a series of disturbances crossing our
area the next work week as a large upper low deepens across the
Great Lakes and south central Canada. These systems will bring
multiple precip chances to Christmas Day. One such system looks
to drag a surface low across the region Tuesday and then another by
the end of the work week. The exact placement of these systems will
determine the type of precipitation we get. For now, have a band of
rain/snow chances along the Ohio River Sunday night, with little if
any accumulations. The GFS has the Tuesday low going up the Ohio
River, which brings a typical line of showers through with winter
precip fighting drier air filtering in on the back side.

Much colder thicknesses come in for midweek, with an impressive
fetch of moisture from the Great Lakes potentially bringing some
rain or snow showers Christmas Eve. Then we warm up slightly on
Thursday as the next low develops across the southern Plains and
lifts a warm front back across the region.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Ceilings through the mid-morning hours will stay VFR with bases
above 4k feet. Some breaks in the clouds will approach SDF and LEX
after 06z, with ceilings occasionally scattering out. Ceilings will
become scattered towards dawn, with variable cloudiness expected
during the day Friday, with any ceilings staying VFR.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with
north winds averaging around 5kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 190248
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
948 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 946 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

The ongoing forecast is on track this evening. Have updated the
grids to reflect the latest temperatures trends, which are running a
bit warmer than expected. Also, kept cloudy skies in for the
overnight. Looking at a national view, it is impressive to see the
entire eastern half of the country under overcast. Still think we`ll
be able to find our way down to the mid and upper 20s by dawn as we
have been steadily dropping despite the cloud cover. However, did
raise overnight lows by a degree or two to account of current trends
and the heavier sky cover expected to hold on.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features zonal to WSW
upper-level flow across the Ohio Valley, through which a dampening
shortwave was traveling.  This shortwave will push through the
region this evening, but another weak southern stream disturbance
will push in towards the end of the period and into the long term
period.

As expected, the very dry airmass between 900 and 750mb has largely
won out this afternoon over the region, as isentropic ascent above
this layer has not been enough to overcome it.  A few locations have
seen a few flurries/ice pellets/sprinkles, but most have remained
dry and should remain dry through the rest of the evening.

The cloud and resultant temperature forecast will be very tricky
tonight, as it does appear a few breaks in the clouds may occur
towards Friday morning.  The latest RAP/HRRR depict similar
solutions in breaking up the cloud cover tonight across portions of
central KY and southern IN.  Forecast soundings from the synoptic
models also support this potential as drier air works in in the
800-600mb layer.  Am always hesitant to forecast skies clearing this
time of year, but given the model agreement, will reduce sky cover
amounts overnight.  Still think we will see at least some cloud
cover almost all night, but large breaks coupled with generally calm
winds may allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s,
perhaps even lower if the clouds break sooner.  If they don`t break
at all, then obviously these temperatures will be way too cool.
Certainly a tricky forecast and one the evening shift will monitor.

Friday will be dry as high pressure remains in control.
Temperatures will once again be dependent on the amount of cloud
cover we see (likely more clouds in the afternoon/evening than in
the morning). Will go with highs in the upper 30s and lower
40s.

Attention will then turn to the southwest as the next system
approaches the OH and TN Valleys.  Guidance continues to suppress
this system further south, with the GFS/ECMWF on the northern end of
the envelope, while the hi-res parallel GFS/NAM/WRFs all point to a
more southern solution.  Looking at the forcing progs, really don`t
see anything to support widespread precip in our area.  The coupled
jet structure seen a day or two ago is largely gone as guidance has
now backed off the idea of a stronger northern stream jet streak.
All the low-level ascent associated with frontogenesis and low-level
moisture transport are focused well to the south of the region.
Therefore, all we really have to work with will be weak upper-level
ascent brought on by the left-exit of the southern stream jet streak
and very modest mid-level height falls as the dampening wave pushes
through.  With all this in mind, have continued to trim pops with
this package.  Kept 20-30 pops in the far southeastern CWA mainly
just to keep some forecast continuity, but suspect the drier hi-res
models will end up being right with little to no measurable precip
in our area.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

High pressure will be over the Upper Ohio Valley at the start of the
period. This high will ridge across our area through the weekend.
Will keep in some lower chance pops for light precip during the day
Saturday as a system passes by well south of the region. The next
precip chance is Sunday night as a weak vortmax crosses the Midwest.
This system is the first in a series of disturbances crossing our
area the next work week as a large upper low deepens across the
Great Lakes and south central Canada. These systems will bring
multiple precip chances to Christmas Day. One such system looks
to drag a surface low across the region Tuesday and then another by
the end of the work week. The exact placement of these systems will
determine the type of precipitation we get. For now, have a band of
rain/snow chances along the Ohio River Sunday night, with little if
any accumulations. The GFS has the Tuesday low going up the Ohio
River, which brings a typical line of showers through with winter
precip fighting drier air filtering in on the back side.

Much colder thicknesses come in for midweek, with an impressive
fetch of moisture from the Great Lakes potentially bringing some
rain or snow showers Christmas Eve. Then we warm up slightly on
Thursday as the next low develops across the southern Plains and
lifts a warm front back across the region.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 652 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Expecting VFR conditions through the TAF period. Still holding onto
some low level moisture that could be good enough for Few-Sct
mention around 2 k feet. Otherwise, an overcast mid deck will
continue to stream overhead. Visibilities could also be reduced to
around the MVFR/VFR threshold in HZ. Conditions remain generally the
same for Friday with a slightly lower mid deck around 5-6 K feet and
a light north wind.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 182351
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
651 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features zonal to WSW
upper-level flow across the Ohio Valley, through which a dampening
shortwave was traveling.  This shortwave will push through the
region this evening, but another weak southern stream disturbance
will push in towards the end of the period and into the long term
period.

As expected, the very dry airmass between 900 and 750mb has largely
won out this afternoon over the region, as isentropic ascent above
this layer has not been enough to overcome it.  A few locations have
seen a few flurries/ice pellets/sprinkles, but most have remained
dry and should remain dry through the rest of the evening.

The cloud and resultant temperature forecast will be very tricky
tonight, as it does appear a few breaks in the clouds may occur
towards Friday morning.  The latest RAP/HRRR depict similar
solutions in breaking up the cloud cover tonight across portions of
central KY and southern IN.  Forecast soundings from the synoptic
models also support this potential as drier air works in in the
800-600mb layer.  Am always hesitant to forecast skies clearing this
time of year, but given the model agreement, will reduce sky cover
amounts overnight.  Still think we will see at least some cloud
cover almost all night, but large breaks coupled with generally calm
winds may allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s,
perhaps even lower if the clouds break sooner.  If they don`t break
at all, then obviously these temperatures will be way too cool.
Certainly a tricky forecast and one the evening shift will monitor.

Friday will be dry as high pressure remains in control.
Temperatures will once again be dependent on the amount of cloud
cover we see (likely more clouds in the afternoon/evening than in
the morning). Will go with highs in the upper 30s and lower
40s.

Attention will then turn to the southwest as the next system
approaches the OH and TN Valleys.  Guidance continues to suppress
this system further south, with the GFS/ECMWF on the northern end of
the envelope, while the hi-res parallel GFS/NAM/WRFs all point to a
more southern solution.  Looking at the forcing progs, really don`t
see anything to support widespread precip in our area.  The coupled
jet structure seen a day or two ago is largely gone as guidance has
now backed off the idea of a stronger northern stream jet streak.
All the low-level ascent associated with frontogenesis and low-level
moisture transport are focused well to the south of the region.
Therefore, all we really have to work with will be weak upper-level
ascent brought on by the left-exit of the southern stream jet streak
and very modest mid-level height falls as the dampening wave pushes
through.  With all this in mind, have continued to trim pops with
this package.  Kept 20-30 pops in the far southeastern CWA mainly
just to keep some forecast continuity, but suspect the drier hi-res
models will end up being right with little to no measurable precip
in our area.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

High pressure will be over the Upper Ohio Valley at the start of the
period. This high will ridge across our area through the weekend.
Will keep in some lower chance pops for light precip during the day
Saturday as a system passes by well south of the region. The next
precip chance is Sunday night as a weak vortmax crosses the Midwest.
This system is the first in a series of disturbances crossing our
area the next work week as a large upper low deepens across the
Great Lakes and south central Canada. These systems will bring
multiple precip chances to Christmas Day. One such system looks
to drag a surface low across the region Tuesday and then another by
the end of the work week. The exact placement of these systems will
determine the type of precipitation we get. For now, have a band of
rain/snow chances along the Ohio River Sunday night, with little if
any accumulations. The GFS has the Tuesday low going up the Ohio
River, which brings a typical line of showers through with winter
precip fighting drier air filtering in on the back side.

Much colder thicknesses come in for midweek, with an impressive
fetch of moisture from the Great Lakes potentially bringing some
rain or snow showers Christmas Eve. Then we warm up slightly on
Thursday as the next low develops across the southern Plains and
lifts a warm front back across the region.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 652 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Expecting VFR conditions through the TAF period. Still holding onto
some low level moisture that could be good enough for Few-Sct
mention around 2 k feet. Otherwise, an overcast mid deck will
continue to stream overhead. Visibilities could also be reduced to
around the MVFR/VFR threshold in HZ. Conditions remain generally the
same for Friday with a slightly lower mid deck around 5-6 K feet and
a light north wind.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 182021
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features zonal to WSW
upper-level flow across the Ohio Valley, through which a dampening
shortwave was traveling.  This shortwave will push through the
region this evening, but another weak southern stream disturbance
will push in towards the end of the period and into the long term
period.

As expected, the very dry airmass between 900 and 750mb has largely
won out this afternoon over the region, as isentropic ascent above
this layer has not been enough to overcome it.  A few locations have
seen a few flurries/ice pellets/sprinkles, but most have remained
dry and should remain dry through the rest of the evening.

The cloud and resultant temperature forecast will be very tricky
tonight, as it does appear a few breaks in the clouds may occur
towards Friday morning.  The latest RAP/HRRR depict similar
solutions in breaking up the cloud cover tonight across portions of
central KY and southern IN.  Forecast soundings from the synoptic
models also support this potential as drier air works in in the
800-600mb layer.  Am always hesitant to forecast skies clearing this
time of year, but given the model agreement, will reduce sky cover
amounts overnight.  Still think we will see at least some cloud
cover almost all night, but large breaks coupled with generally calm
winds may allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s,
perhaps even lower if the clouds break sooner.  If they don`t break
at all, then obviously these temperatures will be way too cool.
Certainly a tricky forecast and one the evening shift will monitor.

Friday will be dry as high pressure remains in control.
Temperatures will once again be dependent on the amount of cloud
cover we see (likely more clouds in the afternoon/evening than in
the morning). Will go with highs in the upper 30s and lower
40s.

Attention will then turn to the southwest as the next system
approaches the OH and TN Valleys.  Guidance continues to suppress
this system further south, with the GFS/ECMWF on the northern end of
the envelope, while the hi-res parallel GFS/NAM/WRFs all point to a
more southern solution.  Looking at the forcing progs, really don`t
see anything to support widespread precip in our area.  The coupled
jet structure seen a day or two ago is largely gone as guidance has
now backed off the idea of a stronger northern stream jet streak.
All the low-level ascent associated with frontogenesis and low-level
moisture transport are focused well to the south of the region.
Therefore, all we really have to work with will be weak upper-level
ascent brought on by the left-exit of the southern stream jet streak
and very modest mid-level height falls as the dampening wave pushes
through.  With all this in mind, have continued to trim pops with
this package.  Kept 20-30 pops in the far southeastern CWA mainly
just to keep some forecast continuity, but suspect the drier hi-res
models will end up being right with little to no measurable precip
in our area.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

High pressure will be over the Upper Ohio Valley at the start of the
period. This high will ridge across our area through the weekend.
Will keep in some lower chance pops for light precip during the day
Saturday as a system passes by well south of the region. The next
precip chance is Sunday night as a weak vortmax crosses the Midwest.
This system is the first in a series of disturbances crossing our
area the next work week as a large upper low deepens across the
Great Lakes and south central Canada. These systems will bring
multiple precip chances to Christmas Day. One such system looks
to drag a surface low across the region Tuesday and then another by
the end of the work week. The exact placement of these systems will
determine the type of precipitation we get. For now, have a band of
rain/snow chances along the Ohio River Sunday night, with little if
any accumulations. The GFS has the Tuesday low going up the Ohio
River, which brings a typical line of showers through with winter
precip fighting drier air filtering in on the back side.

Much colder thicknesses come in for midweek, with an impressive
fetch of moisture from the Great Lakes potentially bringing some
rain or snow showers Christmas Eve. Then we warm up slightly on
Thursday as the next low develops across the southern Plains and
lifts a warm front back across the region.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

The low-level stratus around FL018-FL020 has finally cleared out of
all sites late this morning.  Despite better moisture trying to
approach from the west, a pocket of very dry low to mid-level air
will keep skies VFR through the valid TAF period.  An isolated
flurry or sprinkle will be possible through this afternoon at any
site, otherwise expect dry conditions through the period.  Winds
will be light and variable today through Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 182021
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features zonal to WSW
upper-level flow across the Ohio Valley, through which a dampening
shortwave was traveling.  This shortwave will push through the
region this evening, but another weak southern stream disturbance
will push in towards the end of the period and into the long term
period.

As expected, the very dry airmass between 900 and 750mb has largely
won out this afternoon over the region, as isentropic ascent above
this layer has not been enough to overcome it.  A few locations have
seen a few flurries/ice pellets/sprinkles, but most have remained
dry and should remain dry through the rest of the evening.

The cloud and resultant temperature forecast will be very tricky
tonight, as it does appear a few breaks in the clouds may occur
towards Friday morning.  The latest RAP/HRRR depict similar
solutions in breaking up the cloud cover tonight across portions of
central KY and southern IN.  Forecast soundings from the synoptic
models also support this potential as drier air works in in the
800-600mb layer.  Am always hesitant to forecast skies clearing this
time of year, but given the model agreement, will reduce sky cover
amounts overnight.  Still think we will see at least some cloud
cover almost all night, but large breaks coupled with generally calm
winds may allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s,
perhaps even lower if the clouds break sooner.  If they don`t break
at all, then obviously these temperatures will be way too cool.
Certainly a tricky forecast and one the evening shift will monitor.

Friday will be dry as high pressure remains in control.
Temperatures will once again be dependent on the amount of cloud
cover we see (likely more clouds in the afternoon/evening than in
the morning). Will go with highs in the upper 30s and lower
40s.

Attention will then turn to the southwest as the next system
approaches the OH and TN Valleys.  Guidance continues to suppress
this system further south, with the GFS/ECMWF on the northern end of
the envelope, while the hi-res parallel GFS/NAM/WRFs all point to a
more southern solution.  Looking at the forcing progs, really don`t
see anything to support widespread precip in our area.  The coupled
jet structure seen a day or two ago is largely gone as guidance has
now backed off the idea of a stronger northern stream jet streak.
All the low-level ascent associated with frontogenesis and low-level
moisture transport are focused well to the south of the region.
Therefore, all we really have to work with will be weak upper-level
ascent brought on by the left-exit of the southern stream jet streak
and very modest mid-level height falls as the dampening wave pushes
through.  With all this in mind, have continued to trim pops with
this package.  Kept 20-30 pops in the far southeastern CWA mainly
just to keep some forecast continuity, but suspect the drier hi-res
models will end up being right with little to no measurable precip
in our area.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

High pressure will be over the Upper Ohio Valley at the start of the
period. This high will ridge across our area through the weekend.
Will keep in some lower chance pops for light precip during the day
Saturday as a system passes by well south of the region. The next
precip chance is Sunday night as a weak vortmax crosses the Midwest.
This system is the first in a series of disturbances crossing our
area the next work week as a large upper low deepens across the
Great Lakes and south central Canada. These systems will bring
multiple precip chances to Christmas Day. One such system looks
to drag a surface low across the region Tuesday and then another by
the end of the work week. The exact placement of these systems will
determine the type of precipitation we get. For now, have a band of
rain/snow chances along the Ohio River Sunday night, with little if
any accumulations. The GFS has the Tuesday low going up the Ohio
River, which brings a typical line of showers through with winter
precip fighting drier air filtering in on the back side.

Much colder thicknesses come in for midweek, with an impressive
fetch of moisture from the Great Lakes potentially bringing some
rain or snow showers Christmas Eve. Then we warm up slightly on
Thursday as the next low develops across the southern Plains and
lifts a warm front back across the region.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

The low-level stratus around FL018-FL020 has finally cleared out of
all sites late this morning.  Despite better moisture trying to
approach from the west, a pocket of very dry low to mid-level air
will keep skies VFR through the valid TAF period.  An isolated
flurry or sprinkle will be possible through this afternoon at any
site, otherwise expect dry conditions through the period.  Winds
will be light and variable today through Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181656
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1156 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1155 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

The issues caused by this morning`s wintry mix have improved as any
steadier precipitation has dissipated.  The better moisture to the
southwest is running into a very deep, dry airmass just above
925mb.  Therefore, expect nothing more than perhaps a stray flurry
or sprinkle for the remainder of this afternoon.  Given the
abundance of clouds, did go ahead and lower high temperatures a
degree or two in most locations.

Issued at 810 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Went ahead and upgraded the SPS to a Traveler`s Advisory, as we have
gotten several reports of accidents and slide-offs across portions
of southern Kentucky, one of which involved multiple vehicles and
shut down both the north/south lanes of I-65 in Simpson County.
Much of the precipitation has ended, but a few patches of freezing
drizzle or even some light sleet will still be possible over the
next couple of hours.  Elsewhere, conditions will likely remain dry
given the very dry mid-level airmass, which has caused the earlier
precipitation shield to largely dissipate.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light wintry precip possible this morning across our southern counties...

Widespread isentropic lift at mid-levels ahead of a weakening 500mb
wave now over Missouri is spreading mixed wintry precipitation
across southern Missouri and western Tennessee. This precip is
however running into dry air at lower levels across the Commonwealth
and will weaken as it moves northeast into central Kentucky later
this morning.

Think that best chances for light mixed precipitation or snow
accumulations later this morning will lie along and south of a line
from Ohio County through Adair County, including the Bowling Green
area. Forecast soundings for this area shows a few hours of
saturation that may support snow accumulations of less than one
inch. With light snow possible during the morning rush, will
continue our ongoing Special Weather Statement highlighting slick roads
across our southwestern counties.

Think that flurries or sprinkles at worst are likely for areas along
or north of Interstate 64 towards mid to late morning, again, due to
dry air at lower levels. Winds will stay light from the north today
at around 5 to 7 mph.

Mostly cloudy skies expected this afternoon with lingering flurries,
mainly south of Interstate 64. Highs will rise into the mid to upper
30s once any precipitation ends.

High pressure will nose south across Kentucky tonight bringing light
winds and eventually partly cloudy skies later tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will stay seasonable with lows tonight in the mid to
upper 20s and highs Friday near 40.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

==================================
Long Term Synopsis
==================================

A moderate progressive flow aloft will be in place at the start of
the forecast period.  Flow is being driven by a fairly fast Pacific
jetstream which is being driven by two height anomalies out over the
Pacific.  A well-advertised mid-level wave will shear out as it
passes through the region Friday night and Saturday.  The upper flow
then becomes more zonal again by the late weekend and into early
next week before amplifying significantly toward the Christmas
holidays.  The amplification is driven by an emerging -AO pattern
combined with a swing back to a -EPO out over the Pacific.  This
result in a negative height anomaly over the gulf of AK while we see
ridging out over the western US.  At the same time, signals also
point to a -NAO developing (Greenland Block) in the later periods.
These features then lead to a very strong negative height anomaly
developing over the Midwest and shifting into the Great Lakes by
Christmas day.  Beyond Christmas, a significant pattern change will
be in progress.  The continued -AO/-EPO/-NAO should result in a
rather large mid-level gyre over central Canada...paving the way to
a well advertised return to cold over much of the eastern United
States.

==================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
==================================

Over the past few days, we`ve seen a decent amount of forecast
convergence within the guidance.  The early weekend system was
originally progged to shift through the northern Gulf coast states,
but the models abandoned that idea in the last day and half once
they sensed the fast flow coming in from the Pacific.  The early
week Canadian GEM picked up on this more sheared out, less poleward
track, while the Euro adjusted fairly quickly toward the GEM as the
week wore on.

This morning we find ourselves with a better forecast agreement for
the most part.  The GFS/GEM/ECWMF all have the early weekend system
brushing the southern Ohio Valley late Friday night into Saturday.
The system does not have much in the way of cold air to work with,
other than mainly diurnally driven cooling.  Thus, mixed P-type
issues remain...mainly across southern KY.  Have leaned close to the
Euro/GEM/GFS solution with highest weights in that order.  This
keeps good continuity with the previous forecast.  Overall
confidence with regards to precipitation remains medium to high
across southern KY...with mainly medium confidence as one gets near
the Ohio River.  Temperature confidence here remains generally
medium as well.

Into the middle part of next week, there seems to be decent
agreement with the large height anomaly developing over the northern
Plains and Midwest...then shifting into the Great Lakes.  The
pattern for us will remain mild into the early week and then turn
colder by the Holidays.  NAEFS ensemble guidance points to a very
strong height anomaly by the end of the forecast period...with
generalized return periods of every 10 years (decent anomaly).  The
MSLP anomalies are off the chart compared to climo suggestive of a 1
in 30 year event (quite impressive).  The anomalies from the
ensembles are quite high indicative of good ensemble agreement (can
not get high anomalies with high spreads in your ensembles).   Thus
forecast confidence even out at day 7 is medium.  For now have gone
close to the Euro Ensembles and NAEFS ensembles for the forecast.
This again maintains good continuity with the previous forecast.
Temperature confidence is slightly below medium given timing spreads
in the cold air arriving.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

As for sensible impacts, we are entering a high travel period this
weekend with the holiday traffic picking up both on the ground and
aloft.  The early weekend system is likely to bring mixed
precipitation to the state late Friday night and into Saturday.
Initially, thermal profiles are suggestive of a rain/snow mix,
quickly changing over to snow by late Friday night.  Highest
precipitation coverage looks to be across south-central KY here.  A
slight warming of the boundary layer and lack of cold air at the
surface may result in mixed p-type again during the day.  Some minor
snow accumulations still look possible over the southern end of the
state.  Overall, the model trends, have been less and less on each
run.  Nonetheless, there could be some negative travel impacts
Friday night and Saturday morning.   This system will quickly pass
out of the region by Saturday night with mainly dry conditions for
Sunday and into Monday.

A secondary wave may swing south of the region on Monday bringing
another round of showers.  However, main weather story will be the
developing strong low pressure system over the upper Plains and
Midwest.  This will drop into the Midwest on Tuesday and then into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday.  We`ll see numerous rain showers out
ahead of the system followed by an influx of colder air into the
region by Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. This should result
in a quick change over of rain showers to snow showers.  Coverage of
snow shower activity is still questionable at this juncture for the
late period given that the low really wraps up into the Great
Lakes.  Perhaps more of a sensible weather impact will be the gusty
winds associated with the surface pressure gradient.  Sustained
winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 35 MPH or higher are not out
of the question by the late forecast period.

As for temperatures, generally have stuck close to our SuperBlend
guidance which is really close the Euro 2m raw temps.  This result
in highs in the 40s for Mon/Tue with some low 50s possible by
Tuesday.  A return to more seasonal cold is expected by Wednesday
with highs back in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

The low-level stratus around FL018-FL020 has finally cleared out of
all sites late this morning.  Despite better moisture trying to
approach from the west, a pocket of very dry low to mid-level air
will keep skies VFR through the valid TAF period.  An isolated
flurry or sprinkle will be possible through this afternoon at any
site, otherwise expect dry conditions through the period.  Winds
will be light and variable today through Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181656
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1156 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1155 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

The issues caused by this morning`s wintry mix have improved as any
steadier precipitation has dissipated.  The better moisture to the
southwest is running into a very deep, dry airmass just above
925mb.  Therefore, expect nothing more than perhaps a stray flurry
or sprinkle for the remainder of this afternoon.  Given the
abundance of clouds, did go ahead and lower high temperatures a
degree or two in most locations.

Issued at 810 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Went ahead and upgraded the SPS to a Traveler`s Advisory, as we have
gotten several reports of accidents and slide-offs across portions
of southern Kentucky, one of which involved multiple vehicles and
shut down both the north/south lanes of I-65 in Simpson County.
Much of the precipitation has ended, but a few patches of freezing
drizzle or even some light sleet will still be possible over the
next couple of hours.  Elsewhere, conditions will likely remain dry
given the very dry mid-level airmass, which has caused the earlier
precipitation shield to largely dissipate.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light wintry precip possible this morning across our southern counties...

Widespread isentropic lift at mid-levels ahead of a weakening 500mb
wave now over Missouri is spreading mixed wintry precipitation
across southern Missouri and western Tennessee. This precip is
however running into dry air at lower levels across the Commonwealth
and will weaken as it moves northeast into central Kentucky later
this morning.

Think that best chances for light mixed precipitation or snow
accumulations later this morning will lie along and south of a line
from Ohio County through Adair County, including the Bowling Green
area. Forecast soundings for this area shows a few hours of
saturation that may support snow accumulations of less than one
inch. With light snow possible during the morning rush, will
continue our ongoing Special Weather Statement highlighting slick roads
across our southwestern counties.

Think that flurries or sprinkles at worst are likely for areas along
or north of Interstate 64 towards mid to late morning, again, due to
dry air at lower levels. Winds will stay light from the north today
at around 5 to 7 mph.

Mostly cloudy skies expected this afternoon with lingering flurries,
mainly south of Interstate 64. Highs will rise into the mid to upper
30s once any precipitation ends.

High pressure will nose south across Kentucky tonight bringing light
winds and eventually partly cloudy skies later tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will stay seasonable with lows tonight in the mid to
upper 20s and highs Friday near 40.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

==================================
Long Term Synopsis
==================================

A moderate progressive flow aloft will be in place at the start of
the forecast period.  Flow is being driven by a fairly fast Pacific
jetstream which is being driven by two height anomalies out over the
Pacific.  A well-advertised mid-level wave will shear out as it
passes through the region Friday night and Saturday.  The upper flow
then becomes more zonal again by the late weekend and into early
next week before amplifying significantly toward the Christmas
holidays.  The amplification is driven by an emerging -AO pattern
combined with a swing back to a -EPO out over the Pacific.  This
result in a negative height anomaly over the gulf of AK while we see
ridging out over the western US.  At the same time, signals also
point to a -NAO developing (Greenland Block) in the later periods.
These features then lead to a very strong negative height anomaly
developing over the Midwest and shifting into the Great Lakes by
Christmas day.  Beyond Christmas, a significant pattern change will
be in progress.  The continued -AO/-EPO/-NAO should result in a
rather large mid-level gyre over central Canada...paving the way to
a well advertised return to cold over much of the eastern United
States.

==================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
==================================

Over the past few days, we`ve seen a decent amount of forecast
convergence within the guidance.  The early weekend system was
originally progged to shift through the northern Gulf coast states,
but the models abandoned that idea in the last day and half once
they sensed the fast flow coming in from the Pacific.  The early
week Canadian GEM picked up on this more sheared out, less poleward
track, while the Euro adjusted fairly quickly toward the GEM as the
week wore on.

This morning we find ourselves with a better forecast agreement for
the most part.  The GFS/GEM/ECWMF all have the early weekend system
brushing the southern Ohio Valley late Friday night into Saturday.
The system does not have much in the way of cold air to work with,
other than mainly diurnally driven cooling.  Thus, mixed P-type
issues remain...mainly across southern KY.  Have leaned close to the
Euro/GEM/GFS solution with highest weights in that order.  This
keeps good continuity with the previous forecast.  Overall
confidence with regards to precipitation remains medium to high
across southern KY...with mainly medium confidence as one gets near
the Ohio River.  Temperature confidence here remains generally
medium as well.

Into the middle part of next week, there seems to be decent
agreement with the large height anomaly developing over the northern
Plains and Midwest...then shifting into the Great Lakes.  The
pattern for us will remain mild into the early week and then turn
colder by the Holidays.  NAEFS ensemble guidance points to a very
strong height anomaly by the end of the forecast period...with
generalized return periods of every 10 years (decent anomaly).  The
MSLP anomalies are off the chart compared to climo suggestive of a 1
in 30 year event (quite impressive).  The anomalies from the
ensembles are quite high indicative of good ensemble agreement (can
not get high anomalies with high spreads in your ensembles).   Thus
forecast confidence even out at day 7 is medium.  For now have gone
close to the Euro Ensembles and NAEFS ensembles for the forecast.
This again maintains good continuity with the previous forecast.
Temperature confidence is slightly below medium given timing spreads
in the cold air arriving.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

As for sensible impacts, we are entering a high travel period this
weekend with the holiday traffic picking up both on the ground and
aloft.  The early weekend system is likely to bring mixed
precipitation to the state late Friday night and into Saturday.
Initially, thermal profiles are suggestive of a rain/snow mix,
quickly changing over to snow by late Friday night.  Highest
precipitation coverage looks to be across south-central KY here.  A
slight warming of the boundary layer and lack of cold air at the
surface may result in mixed p-type again during the day.  Some minor
snow accumulations still look possible over the southern end of the
state.  Overall, the model trends, have been less and less on each
run.  Nonetheless, there could be some negative travel impacts
Friday night and Saturday morning.   This system will quickly pass
out of the region by Saturday night with mainly dry conditions for
Sunday and into Monday.

A secondary wave may swing south of the region on Monday bringing
another round of showers.  However, main weather story will be the
developing strong low pressure system over the upper Plains and
Midwest.  This will drop into the Midwest on Tuesday and then into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday.  We`ll see numerous rain showers out
ahead of the system followed by an influx of colder air into the
region by Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. This should result
in a quick change over of rain showers to snow showers.  Coverage of
snow shower activity is still questionable at this juncture for the
late period given that the low really wraps up into the Great
Lakes.  Perhaps more of a sensible weather impact will be the gusty
winds associated with the surface pressure gradient.  Sustained
winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 35 MPH or higher are not out
of the question by the late forecast period.

As for temperatures, generally have stuck close to our SuperBlend
guidance which is really close the Euro 2m raw temps.  This result
in highs in the 40s for Mon/Tue with some low 50s possible by
Tuesday.  A return to more seasonal cold is expected by Wednesday
with highs back in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

The low-level stratus around FL018-FL020 has finally cleared out of
all sites late this morning.  Despite better moisture trying to
approach from the west, a pocket of very dry low to mid-level air
will keep skies VFR through the valid TAF period.  An isolated
flurry or sprinkle will be possible through this afternoon at any
site, otherwise expect dry conditions through the period.  Winds
will be light and variable today through Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 181311
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
811 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 810 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Went ahead and upgraded the SPS to a Traveler`s Advisory, as we have
gotten several reports of accidents and slide-offs across portions
of southern Kentucky, one of which involved multiple vehicles and
shut down both the north/south lanes of I-65 in Simpson County.
Much of the precipitation has ended, but a few patches of freezing
drizzle or even some light sleet will still be possible over the
next couple of hours.  Elsewhere, conditions will likely remain dry
given the very dry mid-level airmass, which has caused the earlier
precipitation shield to largely dissipate.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light wintry precip possible this morning across our southern counties...

Widespread isentropic lift at mid-levels ahead of a weakening 500mb
wave now over Missouri is spreading mixed wintry precipitation
across southern Missouri and western Tennessee. This precip is
however running into dry air at lower levels across the Commonwealth
and will weaken as it moves northeast into central Kentucky later
this morning.

Think that best chances for light mixed precipitation or snow
accumulations later this morning will lie along and south of a line
from Ohio County through Adair County, including the Bowling Green
area. Forecast soundings for this area shows a few hours of
saturation that may support snow accumulations of less than one
inch. With light snow possible during the morning rush, will
continue our ongoing Special Weather Statement highlighting slick roads
across our southwestern counties.

Think that flurries or sprinkles at worst are likely for areas along
or north of Interstate 64 towards mid to late morning, again, due to
dry air at lower levels. Winds will stay light from the north today
at around 5 to 7 mph.

Mostly cloudy skies expected this afternoon with lingering flurries,
mainly south of Interstate 64. Highs will rise into the mid to upper
30s once any precipitation ends.

High pressure will nose south across Kentucky tonight bringing light
winds and eventually partly cloudy skies later tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will stay seasonable with lows tonight in the mid to
upper 20s and highs Friday near 40.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

==================================
Long Term Synopsis
==================================

A moderate progressive flow aloft will be in place at the start of
the forecast period.  Flow is being driven by a fairly fast Pacific
jetstream which is being driven by two height anomalies out over the
Pacific.  A well-advertised mid-level wave will shear out as it
passes through the region Friday night and Saturday.  The upper flow
then becomes more zonal again by the late weekend and into early
next week before amplifying significantly toward the Christmas
holidays.  The amplification is driven by an emerging -AO pattern
combined with a swing back to a -EPO out over the Pacific.  This
result in a negative height anomaly over the gulf of AK while we see
ridging out over the western US.  At the same time, signals also
point to a -NAO developing (Greenland Block) in the later periods.
These features then lead to a very strong negative height anomaly
developing over the Midwest and shifting into the Great Lakes by
Christmas day.  Beyond Christmas, a significant pattern change will
be in progress.  The continued -AO/-EPO/-NAO should result in a
rather large mid-level gyre over central Canada...paving the way to
a well advertised return to cold over much of the eastern United
States.

==================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
==================================

Over the past few days, we`ve seen a decent amount of forecast
convergence within the guidance.  The early weekend system was
originally progged to shift through the northern Gulf coast states,
but the models abandoned that idea in the last day and half once
they sensed the fast flow coming in from the Pacific.  The early
week Canadian GEM picked up on this more sheared out, less poleward
track, while the Euro adjusted fairly quickly toward the GEM as the
week wore on.

This morning we find ourselves with a better forecast agreement for
the most part.  The GFS/GEM/ECWMF all have the early weekend system
brushing the southern Ohio Valley late Friday night into Saturday.
The system does not have much in the way of cold air to work with,
other than mainly diurnally driven cooling.  Thus, mixed P-type
issues remain...mainly across southern KY.  Have leaned close to the
Euro/GEM/GFS solution with highest weights in that order.  This
keeps good continuity with the previous forecast.  Overall
confidence with regards to precipitation remains medium to high
across southern KY...with mainly medium confidence as one gets near
the Ohio River.  Temperature confidence here remains generally
medium as well.

Into the middle part of next week, there seems to be decent
agreement with the large height anomaly developing over the northern
Plains and Midwest...then shifting into the Great Lakes.  The
pattern for us will remain mild into the early week and then turn
colder by the Holidays.  NAEFS ensemble guidance points to a very
strong height anomaly by the end of the forecast period...with
generalized return periods of every 10 years (decent anomaly).  The
MSLP anomalies are off the chart compared to climo suggestive of a 1
in 30 year event (quite impressive).  The anomalies from the
ensembles are quite high indicative of good ensemble agreement (can
not get high anomalies with high spreads in your ensembles).   Thus
forecast confidence even out at day 7 is medium.  For now have gone
close to the Euro Ensembles and NAEFS ensembles for the forecast.
This again maintains good continuity with the previous forecast.
Temperature confidence is slightly below medium given timing spreads
in the cold air arriving.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

As for sensible impacts, we are entering a high travel period this
weekend with the holiday traffic picking up both on the ground and
aloft.  The early weekend system is likely to bring mixed
precipitation to the state late Friday night and into Saturday.
Initially, thermal profiles are suggestive of a rain/snow mix,
quickly changing over to snow by late Friday night.  Highest
precipitation coverage looks to be across south-central KY here.  A
slight warming of the boundary layer and lack of cold air at the
surface may result in mixed p-type again during the day.  Some minor
snow accumulations still look possible over the southern end of the
state.  Overall, the model trends, have been less and less on each
run.  Nonetheless, there could be some negative travel impacts
Friday night and Saturday morning.   This system will quickly pass
out of the region by Saturday night with mainly dry conditions for
Sunday and into Monday.

A secondary wave may swing south of the region on Monday bringing
another round of showers.  However, main weather story will be the
developing strong low pressure system over the upper Plains and
Midwest.  This will drop into the Midwest on Tuesday and then into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday.  We`ll see numerous rain showers out
ahead of the system followed by an influx of colder air into the
region by Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. This should result
in a quick change over of rain showers to snow showers.  Coverage of
snow shower activity is still questionable at this juncture for the
late period given that the low really wraps up into the Great
Lakes.  Perhaps more of a sensible weather impact will be the gusty
winds associated with the surface pressure gradient.  Sustained
winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 35 MPH or higher are not out
of the question by the late forecast period.

As for temperatures, generally have stuck close to our SuperBlend
guidance which is really close the Euro 2m raw temps.  This result
in highs in the 40s for Mon/Tue with some low 50s possible by
Tuesday.  A return to more seasonal cold is expected by Wednesday
with highs back in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 609 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Wintry precipitation associated with a weakening southern plains
storm system will almost completely dissipate prior to reaching SDF
and LEX. For these two sites, expect only some flurries or light
sprinkles after 14z this morning at worst.

By the beginning of the BWG TAF, light sleet and/or freezing rain
will have ended or changed to flurries or light freezing drizzle.
Visibilities at BWG will stay VFR this morning. Ceilings at BWG will
likely stay VFR through the morning hours as well.

SDF and LEX still remains within the southern edge of extensive
strato-cu with MVFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings will continue at SDF and
LEX through 13z and 14z respectively, slowly scattering out by late
morning.

Winds will stay generally from the north overnight and Thursday at
around 4 to 8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181311
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
811 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 810 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Went ahead and upgraded the SPS to a Traveler`s Advisory, as we have
gotten several reports of accidents and slide-offs across portions
of southern Kentucky, one of which involved multiple vehicles and
shut down both the north/south lanes of I-65 in Simpson County.
Much of the precipitation has ended, but a few patches of freezing
drizzle or even some light sleet will still be possible over the
next couple of hours.  Elsewhere, conditions will likely remain dry
given the very dry mid-level airmass, which has caused the earlier
precipitation shield to largely dissipate.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light wintry precip possible this morning across our southern counties...

Widespread isentropic lift at mid-levels ahead of a weakening 500mb
wave now over Missouri is spreading mixed wintry precipitation
across southern Missouri and western Tennessee. This precip is
however running into dry air at lower levels across the Commonwealth
and will weaken as it moves northeast into central Kentucky later
this morning.

Think that best chances for light mixed precipitation or snow
accumulations later this morning will lie along and south of a line
from Ohio County through Adair County, including the Bowling Green
area. Forecast soundings for this area shows a few hours of
saturation that may support snow accumulations of less than one
inch. With light snow possible during the morning rush, will
continue our ongoing Special Weather Statement highlighting slick roads
across our southwestern counties.

Think that flurries or sprinkles at worst are likely for areas along
or north of Interstate 64 towards mid to late morning, again, due to
dry air at lower levels. Winds will stay light from the north today
at around 5 to 7 mph.

Mostly cloudy skies expected this afternoon with lingering flurries,
mainly south of Interstate 64. Highs will rise into the mid to upper
30s once any precipitation ends.

High pressure will nose south across Kentucky tonight bringing light
winds and eventually partly cloudy skies later tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will stay seasonable with lows tonight in the mid to
upper 20s and highs Friday near 40.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

==================================
Long Term Synopsis
==================================

A moderate progressive flow aloft will be in place at the start of
the forecast period.  Flow is being driven by a fairly fast Pacific
jetstream which is being driven by two height anomalies out over the
Pacific.  A well-advertised mid-level wave will shear out as it
passes through the region Friday night and Saturday.  The upper flow
then becomes more zonal again by the late weekend and into early
next week before amplifying significantly toward the Christmas
holidays.  The amplification is driven by an emerging -AO pattern
combined with a swing back to a -EPO out over the Pacific.  This
result in a negative height anomaly over the gulf of AK while we see
ridging out over the western US.  At the same time, signals also
point to a -NAO developing (Greenland Block) in the later periods.
These features then lead to a very strong negative height anomaly
developing over the Midwest and shifting into the Great Lakes by
Christmas day.  Beyond Christmas, a significant pattern change will
be in progress.  The continued -AO/-EPO/-NAO should result in a
rather large mid-level gyre over central Canada...paving the way to
a well advertised return to cold over much of the eastern United
States.

==================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
==================================

Over the past few days, we`ve seen a decent amount of forecast
convergence within the guidance.  The early weekend system was
originally progged to shift through the northern Gulf coast states,
but the models abandoned that idea in the last day and half once
they sensed the fast flow coming in from the Pacific.  The early
week Canadian GEM picked up on this more sheared out, less poleward
track, while the Euro adjusted fairly quickly toward the GEM as the
week wore on.

This morning we find ourselves with a better forecast agreement for
the most part.  The GFS/GEM/ECWMF all have the early weekend system
brushing the southern Ohio Valley late Friday night into Saturday.
The system does not have much in the way of cold air to work with,
other than mainly diurnally driven cooling.  Thus, mixed P-type
issues remain...mainly across southern KY.  Have leaned close to the
Euro/GEM/GFS solution with highest weights in that order.  This
keeps good continuity with the previous forecast.  Overall
confidence with regards to precipitation remains medium to high
across southern KY...with mainly medium confidence as one gets near
the Ohio River.  Temperature confidence here remains generally
medium as well.

Into the middle part of next week, there seems to be decent
agreement with the large height anomaly developing over the northern
Plains and Midwest...then shifting into the Great Lakes.  The
pattern for us will remain mild into the early week and then turn
colder by the Holidays.  NAEFS ensemble guidance points to a very
strong height anomaly by the end of the forecast period...with
generalized return periods of every 10 years (decent anomaly).  The
MSLP anomalies are off the chart compared to climo suggestive of a 1
in 30 year event (quite impressive).  The anomalies from the
ensembles are quite high indicative of good ensemble agreement (can
not get high anomalies with high spreads in your ensembles).   Thus
forecast confidence even out at day 7 is medium.  For now have gone
close to the Euro Ensembles and NAEFS ensembles for the forecast.
This again maintains good continuity with the previous forecast.
Temperature confidence is slightly below medium given timing spreads
in the cold air arriving.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

As for sensible impacts, we are entering a high travel period this
weekend with the holiday traffic picking up both on the ground and
aloft.  The early weekend system is likely to bring mixed
precipitation to the state late Friday night and into Saturday.
Initially, thermal profiles are suggestive of a rain/snow mix,
quickly changing over to snow by late Friday night.  Highest
precipitation coverage looks to be across south-central KY here.  A
slight warming of the boundary layer and lack of cold air at the
surface may result in mixed p-type again during the day.  Some minor
snow accumulations still look possible over the southern end of the
state.  Overall, the model trends, have been less and less on each
run.  Nonetheless, there could be some negative travel impacts
Friday night and Saturday morning.   This system will quickly pass
out of the region by Saturday night with mainly dry conditions for
Sunday and into Monday.

A secondary wave may swing south of the region on Monday bringing
another round of showers.  However, main weather story will be the
developing strong low pressure system over the upper Plains and
Midwest.  This will drop into the Midwest on Tuesday and then into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday.  We`ll see numerous rain showers out
ahead of the system followed by an influx of colder air into the
region by Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. This should result
in a quick change over of rain showers to snow showers.  Coverage of
snow shower activity is still questionable at this juncture for the
late period given that the low really wraps up into the Great
Lakes.  Perhaps more of a sensible weather impact will be the gusty
winds associated with the surface pressure gradient.  Sustained
winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 35 MPH or higher are not out
of the question by the late forecast period.

As for temperatures, generally have stuck close to our SuperBlend
guidance which is really close the Euro 2m raw temps.  This result
in highs in the 40s for Mon/Tue with some low 50s possible by
Tuesday.  A return to more seasonal cold is expected by Wednesday
with highs back in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 609 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Wintry precipitation associated with a weakening southern plains
storm system will almost completely dissipate prior to reaching SDF
and LEX. For these two sites, expect only some flurries or light
sprinkles after 14z this morning at worst.

By the beginning of the BWG TAF, light sleet and/or freezing rain
will have ended or changed to flurries or light freezing drizzle.
Visibilities at BWG will stay VFR this morning. Ceilings at BWG will
likely stay VFR through the morning hours as well.

SDF and LEX still remains within the southern edge of extensive
strato-cu with MVFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings will continue at SDF and
LEX through 13z and 14z respectively, slowly scattering out by late
morning.

Winds will stay generally from the north overnight and Thursday at
around 4 to 8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181311
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
811 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 810 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Went ahead and upgraded the SPS to a Traveler`s Advisory, as we have
gotten several reports of accidents and slide-offs across portions
of southern Kentucky, one of which involved multiple vehicles and
shut down both the north/south lanes of I-65 in Simpson County.
Much of the precipitation has ended, but a few patches of freezing
drizzle or even some light sleet will still be possible over the
next couple of hours.  Elsewhere, conditions will likely remain dry
given the very dry mid-level airmass, which has caused the earlier
precipitation shield to largely dissipate.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light wintry precip possible this morning across our southern counties...

Widespread isentropic lift at mid-levels ahead of a weakening 500mb
wave now over Missouri is spreading mixed wintry precipitation
across southern Missouri and western Tennessee. This precip is
however running into dry air at lower levels across the Commonwealth
and will weaken as it moves northeast into central Kentucky later
this morning.

Think that best chances for light mixed precipitation or snow
accumulations later this morning will lie along and south of a line
from Ohio County through Adair County, including the Bowling Green
area. Forecast soundings for this area shows a few hours of
saturation that may support snow accumulations of less than one
inch. With light snow possible during the morning rush, will
continue our ongoing Special Weather Statement highlighting slick roads
across our southwestern counties.

Think that flurries or sprinkles at worst are likely for areas along
or north of Interstate 64 towards mid to late morning, again, due to
dry air at lower levels. Winds will stay light from the north today
at around 5 to 7 mph.

Mostly cloudy skies expected this afternoon with lingering flurries,
mainly south of Interstate 64. Highs will rise into the mid to upper
30s once any precipitation ends.

High pressure will nose south across Kentucky tonight bringing light
winds and eventually partly cloudy skies later tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will stay seasonable with lows tonight in the mid to
upper 20s and highs Friday near 40.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

==================================
Long Term Synopsis
==================================

A moderate progressive flow aloft will be in place at the start of
the forecast period.  Flow is being driven by a fairly fast Pacific
jetstream which is being driven by two height anomalies out over the
Pacific.  A well-advertised mid-level wave will shear out as it
passes through the region Friday night and Saturday.  The upper flow
then becomes more zonal again by the late weekend and into early
next week before amplifying significantly toward the Christmas
holidays.  The amplification is driven by an emerging -AO pattern
combined with a swing back to a -EPO out over the Pacific.  This
result in a negative height anomaly over the gulf of AK while we see
ridging out over the western US.  At the same time, signals also
point to a -NAO developing (Greenland Block) in the later periods.
These features then lead to a very strong negative height anomaly
developing over the Midwest and shifting into the Great Lakes by
Christmas day.  Beyond Christmas, a significant pattern change will
be in progress.  The continued -AO/-EPO/-NAO should result in a
rather large mid-level gyre over central Canada...paving the way to
a well advertised return to cold over much of the eastern United
States.

==================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
==================================

Over the past few days, we`ve seen a decent amount of forecast
convergence within the guidance.  The early weekend system was
originally progged to shift through the northern Gulf coast states,
but the models abandoned that idea in the last day and half once
they sensed the fast flow coming in from the Pacific.  The early
week Canadian GEM picked up on this more sheared out, less poleward
track, while the Euro adjusted fairly quickly toward the GEM as the
week wore on.

This morning we find ourselves with a better forecast agreement for
the most part.  The GFS/GEM/ECWMF all have the early weekend system
brushing the southern Ohio Valley late Friday night into Saturday.
The system does not have much in the way of cold air to work with,
other than mainly diurnally driven cooling.  Thus, mixed P-type
issues remain...mainly across southern KY.  Have leaned close to the
Euro/GEM/GFS solution with highest weights in that order.  This
keeps good continuity with the previous forecast.  Overall
confidence with regards to precipitation remains medium to high
across southern KY...with mainly medium confidence as one gets near
the Ohio River.  Temperature confidence here remains generally
medium as well.

Into the middle part of next week, there seems to be decent
agreement with the large height anomaly developing over the northern
Plains and Midwest...then shifting into the Great Lakes.  The
pattern for us will remain mild into the early week and then turn
colder by the Holidays.  NAEFS ensemble guidance points to a very
strong height anomaly by the end of the forecast period...with
generalized return periods of every 10 years (decent anomaly).  The
MSLP anomalies are off the chart compared to climo suggestive of a 1
in 30 year event (quite impressive).  The anomalies from the
ensembles are quite high indicative of good ensemble agreement (can
not get high anomalies with high spreads in your ensembles).   Thus
forecast confidence even out at day 7 is medium.  For now have gone
close to the Euro Ensembles and NAEFS ensembles for the forecast.
This again maintains good continuity with the previous forecast.
Temperature confidence is slightly below medium given timing spreads
in the cold air arriving.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

As for sensible impacts, we are entering a high travel period this
weekend with the holiday traffic picking up both on the ground and
aloft.  The early weekend system is likely to bring mixed
precipitation to the state late Friday night and into Saturday.
Initially, thermal profiles are suggestive of a rain/snow mix,
quickly changing over to snow by late Friday night.  Highest
precipitation coverage looks to be across south-central KY here.  A
slight warming of the boundary layer and lack of cold air at the
surface may result in mixed p-type again during the day.  Some minor
snow accumulations still look possible over the southern end of the
state.  Overall, the model trends, have been less and less on each
run.  Nonetheless, there could be some negative travel impacts
Friday night and Saturday morning.   This system will quickly pass
out of the region by Saturday night with mainly dry conditions for
Sunday and into Monday.

A secondary wave may swing south of the region on Monday bringing
another round of showers.  However, main weather story will be the
developing strong low pressure system over the upper Plains and
Midwest.  This will drop into the Midwest on Tuesday and then into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday.  We`ll see numerous rain showers out
ahead of the system followed by an influx of colder air into the
region by Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. This should result
in a quick change over of rain showers to snow showers.  Coverage of
snow shower activity is still questionable at this juncture for the
late period given that the low really wraps up into the Great
Lakes.  Perhaps more of a sensible weather impact will be the gusty
winds associated with the surface pressure gradient.  Sustained
winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 35 MPH or higher are not out
of the question by the late forecast period.

As for temperatures, generally have stuck close to our SuperBlend
guidance which is really close the Euro 2m raw temps.  This result
in highs in the 40s for Mon/Tue with some low 50s possible by
Tuesday.  A return to more seasonal cold is expected by Wednesday
with highs back in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 609 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Wintry precipitation associated with a weakening southern plains
storm system will almost completely dissipate prior to reaching SDF
and LEX. For these two sites, expect only some flurries or light
sprinkles after 14z this morning at worst.

By the beginning of the BWG TAF, light sleet and/or freezing rain
will have ended or changed to flurries or light freezing drizzle.
Visibilities at BWG will stay VFR this morning. Ceilings at BWG will
likely stay VFR through the morning hours as well.

SDF and LEX still remains within the southern edge of extensive
strato-cu with MVFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings will continue at SDF and
LEX through 13z and 14z respectively, slowly scattering out by late
morning.

Winds will stay generally from the north overnight and Thursday at
around 4 to 8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 181311
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
811 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 810 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Went ahead and upgraded the SPS to a Traveler`s Advisory, as we have
gotten several reports of accidents and slide-offs across portions
of southern Kentucky, one of which involved multiple vehicles and
shut down both the north/south lanes of I-65 in Simpson County.
Much of the precipitation has ended, but a few patches of freezing
drizzle or even some light sleet will still be possible over the
next couple of hours.  Elsewhere, conditions will likely remain dry
given the very dry mid-level airmass, which has caused the earlier
precipitation shield to largely dissipate.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light wintry precip possible this morning across our southern counties...

Widespread isentropic lift at mid-levels ahead of a weakening 500mb
wave now over Missouri is spreading mixed wintry precipitation
across southern Missouri and western Tennessee. This precip is
however running into dry air at lower levels across the Commonwealth
and will weaken as it moves northeast into central Kentucky later
this morning.

Think that best chances for light mixed precipitation or snow
accumulations later this morning will lie along and south of a line
from Ohio County through Adair County, including the Bowling Green
area. Forecast soundings for this area shows a few hours of
saturation that may support snow accumulations of less than one
inch. With light snow possible during the morning rush, will
continue our ongoing Special Weather Statement highlighting slick roads
across our southwestern counties.

Think that flurries or sprinkles at worst are likely for areas along
or north of Interstate 64 towards mid to late morning, again, due to
dry air at lower levels. Winds will stay light from the north today
at around 5 to 7 mph.

Mostly cloudy skies expected this afternoon with lingering flurries,
mainly south of Interstate 64. Highs will rise into the mid to upper
30s once any precipitation ends.

High pressure will nose south across Kentucky tonight bringing light
winds and eventually partly cloudy skies later tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will stay seasonable with lows tonight in the mid to
upper 20s and highs Friday near 40.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

==================================
Long Term Synopsis
==================================

A moderate progressive flow aloft will be in place at the start of
the forecast period.  Flow is being driven by a fairly fast Pacific
jetstream which is being driven by two height anomalies out over the
Pacific.  A well-advertised mid-level wave will shear out as it
passes through the region Friday night and Saturday.  The upper flow
then becomes more zonal again by the late weekend and into early
next week before amplifying significantly toward the Christmas
holidays.  The amplification is driven by an emerging -AO pattern
combined with a swing back to a -EPO out over the Pacific.  This
result in a negative height anomaly over the gulf of AK while we see
ridging out over the western US.  At the same time, signals also
point to a -NAO developing (Greenland Block) in the later periods.
These features then lead to a very strong negative height anomaly
developing over the Midwest and shifting into the Great Lakes by
Christmas day.  Beyond Christmas, a significant pattern change will
be in progress.  The continued -AO/-EPO/-NAO should result in a
rather large mid-level gyre over central Canada...paving the way to
a well advertised return to cold over much of the eastern United
States.

==================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
==================================

Over the past few days, we`ve seen a decent amount of forecast
convergence within the guidance.  The early weekend system was
originally progged to shift through the northern Gulf coast states,
but the models abandoned that idea in the last day and half once
they sensed the fast flow coming in from the Pacific.  The early
week Canadian GEM picked up on this more sheared out, less poleward
track, while the Euro adjusted fairly quickly toward the GEM as the
week wore on.

This morning we find ourselves with a better forecast agreement for
the most part.  The GFS/GEM/ECWMF all have the early weekend system
brushing the southern Ohio Valley late Friday night into Saturday.
The system does not have much in the way of cold air to work with,
other than mainly diurnally driven cooling.  Thus, mixed P-type
issues remain...mainly across southern KY.  Have leaned close to the
Euro/GEM/GFS solution with highest weights in that order.  This
keeps good continuity with the previous forecast.  Overall
confidence with regards to precipitation remains medium to high
across southern KY...with mainly medium confidence as one gets near
the Ohio River.  Temperature confidence here remains generally
medium as well.

Into the middle part of next week, there seems to be decent
agreement with the large height anomaly developing over the northern
Plains and Midwest...then shifting into the Great Lakes.  The
pattern for us will remain mild into the early week and then turn
colder by the Holidays.  NAEFS ensemble guidance points to a very
strong height anomaly by the end of the forecast period...with
generalized return periods of every 10 years (decent anomaly).  The
MSLP anomalies are off the chart compared to climo suggestive of a 1
in 30 year event (quite impressive).  The anomalies from the
ensembles are quite high indicative of good ensemble agreement (can
not get high anomalies with high spreads in your ensembles).   Thus
forecast confidence even out at day 7 is medium.  For now have gone
close to the Euro Ensembles and NAEFS ensembles for the forecast.
This again maintains good continuity with the previous forecast.
Temperature confidence is slightly below medium given timing spreads
in the cold air arriving.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

As for sensible impacts, we are entering a high travel period this
weekend with the holiday traffic picking up both on the ground and
aloft.  The early weekend system is likely to bring mixed
precipitation to the state late Friday night and into Saturday.
Initially, thermal profiles are suggestive of a rain/snow mix,
quickly changing over to snow by late Friday night.  Highest
precipitation coverage looks to be across south-central KY here.  A
slight warming of the boundary layer and lack of cold air at the
surface may result in mixed p-type again during the day.  Some minor
snow accumulations still look possible over the southern end of the
state.  Overall, the model trends, have been less and less on each
run.  Nonetheless, there could be some negative travel impacts
Friday night and Saturday morning.   This system will quickly pass
out of the region by Saturday night with mainly dry conditions for
Sunday and into Monday.

A secondary wave may swing south of the region on Monday bringing
another round of showers.  However, main weather story will be the
developing strong low pressure system over the upper Plains and
Midwest.  This will drop into the Midwest on Tuesday and then into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday.  We`ll see numerous rain showers out
ahead of the system followed by an influx of colder air into the
region by Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. This should result
in a quick change over of rain showers to snow showers.  Coverage of
snow shower activity is still questionable at this juncture for the
late period given that the low really wraps up into the Great
Lakes.  Perhaps more of a sensible weather impact will be the gusty
winds associated with the surface pressure gradient.  Sustained
winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 35 MPH or higher are not out
of the question by the late forecast period.

As for temperatures, generally have stuck close to our SuperBlend
guidance which is really close the Euro 2m raw temps.  This result
in highs in the 40s for Mon/Tue with some low 50s possible by
Tuesday.  A return to more seasonal cold is expected by Wednesday
with highs back in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 609 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Wintry precipitation associated with a weakening southern plains
storm system will almost completely dissipate prior to reaching SDF
and LEX. For these two sites, expect only some flurries or light
sprinkles after 14z this morning at worst.

By the beginning of the BWG TAF, light sleet and/or freezing rain
will have ended or changed to flurries or light freezing drizzle.
Visibilities at BWG will stay VFR this morning. Ceilings at BWG will
likely stay VFR through the morning hours as well.

SDF and LEX still remains within the southern edge of extensive
strato-cu with MVFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings will continue at SDF and
LEX through 13z and 14z respectively, slowly scattering out by late
morning.

Winds will stay generally from the north overnight and Thursday at
around 4 to 8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 181118
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
618 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light wintry precip possible this morning across our southern counties...

Widespread isentropic lift at mid-levels ahead of a weakening 500mb
wave now over Missouri is spreading mixed wintry precipitation
across southern Missouri and western Tennessee. This precip is
however running into dry air at lower levels across the Commonwealth
and will weaken as it moves northeast into central Kentucky later
this morning.

Think that best chances for light mixed precipitation or snow
accumulations later this morning will lie along and south of a line
from Ohio County through Adair County, including the Bowling Green
area. Forecast soundings for this area shows a few hours of
saturation that may support snow accumulations of less than one
inch. With light snow possible during the morning rush, will
continue our ongoing Special Weather Statement highlighting slick roads
across our southwestern counties.

Think that flurries or sprinkles at worst are likely for areas along
or north of Interstate 64 towards mid to late morning, again, due to
dry air at lower levels. Winds will stay light from the north today
at around 5 to 7 mph.

Mostly cloudy skies expected this afternoon with lingering flurries,
mainly south of Interstate 64. Highs will rise into the mid to upper
30s once any precipitation ends.

High pressure will nose south across Kentucky tonight bringing light
winds and eventually partly cloudy skies later tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will stay seasonable with lows tonight in the mid to
upper 20s and highs Friday near 40.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

==================================
Long Term Synopsis
==================================

A moderate progressive flow aloft will be in place at the start of
the forecast period.  Flow is being driven by a fairly fast Pacific
jetstream which is being driven by two height anomalies out over the
Pacific.  A well-advertised mid-level wave will shear out as it
passes through the region Friday night and Saturday.  The upper flow
then becomes more zonal again by the late weekend and into early
next week before amplifying significantly toward the Christmas
holidays.  The amplification is driven by an emerging -AO pattern
combined with a swing back to a -EPO out over the Pacific.  This
result in a negative height anomaly over the gulf of AK while we see
ridging out over the western US.  At the same time, signals also
point to a -NAO developing (Greenland Block) in the later periods.
These features then lead to a very strong negative height anomaly
developing over the Midwest and shifting into the Great Lakes by
Christmas day.  Beyond Christmas, a significant pattern change will
be in progress.  The continued -AO/-EPO/-NAO should result in a
rather large mid-level gyre over central Canada...paving the way to
a well advertised return to cold over much of the eastern United
States.

==================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
==================================

Over the past few days, we`ve seen a decent amount of forecast
convergence within the guidance.  The early weekend system was
originally progged to shift through the northern Gulf coast states,
but the models abandoned that idea in the last day and half once
they sensed the fast flow coming in from the Pacific.  The early
week Canadian GEM picked up on this more sheared out, less poleward
track, while the Euro adjusted fairly quickly toward the GEM as the
week wore on.

This morning we find ourselves with a better forecast agreement for
the most part.  The GFS/GEM/ECWMF all have the early weekend system
brushing the southern Ohio Valley late Friday night into Saturday.
The system does not have much in the way of cold air to work with,
other than mainly diurnally driven cooling.  Thus, mixed P-type
issues remain...mainly across southern KY.  Have leaned close to the
Euro/GEM/GFS solution with highest weights in that order.  This
keeps good continuity with the previous forecast.  Overall
confidence with regards to precipitation remains medium to high
across southern KY...with mainly medium confidence as one gets near
the Ohio River.  Temperature confidence here remains generally
medium as well.

Into the middle part of next week, there seems to be decent
agreement with the large height anomaly developing over the northern
Plains and Midwest...then shifting into the Great Lakes.  The
pattern for us will remain mild into the early week and then turn
colder by the Holidays.  NAEFS ensemble guidance points to a very
strong height anomaly by the end of the forecast period...with
generalized return periods of every 10 years (decent anomaly).  The
MSLP anomalies are off the chart compared to climo suggestive of a 1
in 30 year event (quite impressive).  The anomalies from the
ensembles are quite high indicative of good ensemble agreement (can
not get high anomalies with high spreads in your ensembles).   Thus
forecast confidence even out at day 7 is medium.  For now have gone
close to the Euro Ensembles and NAEFS ensembles for the forecast.
This again maintains good continuity with the previous forecast.
Temperature confidence is slightly below medium given timing spreads
in the cold air arriving.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

As for sensible impacts, we are entering a high travel period this
weekend with the holiday traffic picking up both on the ground and
aloft.  The early weekend system is likely to bring mixed
precipitation to the state late Friday night and into Saturday.
Initially, thermal profiles are suggestive of a rain/snow mix,
quickly changing over to snow by late Friday night.  Highest
precipitation coverage looks to be across south-central KY here.  A
slight warming of the boundary layer and lack of cold air at the
surface may result in mixed p-type again during the day.  Some minor
snow accumulations still look possible over the southern end of the
state.  Overall, the model trends, have been less and less on each
run.  Nonetheless, there could be some negative travel impacts
Friday night and Saturday morning.   This system will quickly pass
out of the region by Saturday night with mainly dry conditions for
Sunday and into Monday.

A secondary wave may swing south of the region on Monday bringing
another round of showers.  However, main weather story will be the
developing strong low pressure system over the upper Plains and
Midwest.  This will drop into the Midwest on Tuesday and then into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday.  We`ll see numerous rain showers out
ahead of the system followed by an influx of colder air into the
region by Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. This should result
in a quick change over of rain showers to snow showers.  Coverage of
snow shower activity is still questionable at this juncture for the
late period given that the low really wraps up into the Great
Lakes.  Perhaps more of a sensible weather impact will be the gusty
winds associated with the surface pressure gradient.  Sustained
winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 35 MPH or higher are not out
of the question by the late forecast period.

As for temperatures, generally have stuck close to our SuperBlend
guidance which is really close the Euro 2m raw temps.  This result
in highs in the 40s for Mon/Tue with some low 50s possible by
Tuesday.  A return to more seasonal cold is expected by Wednesday
with highs back in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 609 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Wintry precipitation associated with a weakening southern plains
storm system will almost completely dissipate prior to reaching SDF
and LEX. For these two sites, expect only some flurries or light
sprinkles after 14z this morning at worst.

By the beginning of the BWG TAF, light sleet and/or freezing rain
will have ended or changed to flurries or light freezing drizzle.
Visibilities at BWG will stay VFR this morning. Ceilings at BWG will
likely stay VFR through the morning hours as well.

SDF and LEX still remains within the southern edge of extensive
strato-cu with MVFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings will continue at SDF and
LEX through 13z and 14z respectively, slowly scattering out by late
morning.

Winds will stay generally from the north overnight and Thursday at
around 4 to 8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181118
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
618 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light wintry precip possible this morning across our southern counties...

Widespread isentropic lift at mid-levels ahead of a weakening 500mb
wave now over Missouri is spreading mixed wintry precipitation
across southern Missouri and western Tennessee. This precip is
however running into dry air at lower levels across the Commonwealth
and will weaken as it moves northeast into central Kentucky later
this morning.

Think that best chances for light mixed precipitation or snow
accumulations later this morning will lie along and south of a line
from Ohio County through Adair County, including the Bowling Green
area. Forecast soundings for this area shows a few hours of
saturation that may support snow accumulations of less than one
inch. With light snow possible during the morning rush, will
continue our ongoing Special Weather Statement highlighting slick roads
across our southwestern counties.

Think that flurries or sprinkles at worst are likely for areas along
or north of Interstate 64 towards mid to late morning, again, due to
dry air at lower levels. Winds will stay light from the north today
at around 5 to 7 mph.

Mostly cloudy skies expected this afternoon with lingering flurries,
mainly south of Interstate 64. Highs will rise into the mid to upper
30s once any precipitation ends.

High pressure will nose south across Kentucky tonight bringing light
winds and eventually partly cloudy skies later tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will stay seasonable with lows tonight in the mid to
upper 20s and highs Friday near 40.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

==================================
Long Term Synopsis
==================================

A moderate progressive flow aloft will be in place at the start of
the forecast period.  Flow is being driven by a fairly fast Pacific
jetstream which is being driven by two height anomalies out over the
Pacific.  A well-advertised mid-level wave will shear out as it
passes through the region Friday night and Saturday.  The upper flow
then becomes more zonal again by the late weekend and into early
next week before amplifying significantly toward the Christmas
holidays.  The amplification is driven by an emerging -AO pattern
combined with a swing back to a -EPO out over the Pacific.  This
result in a negative height anomaly over the gulf of AK while we see
ridging out over the western US.  At the same time, signals also
point to a -NAO developing (Greenland Block) in the later periods.
These features then lead to a very strong negative height anomaly
developing over the Midwest and shifting into the Great Lakes by
Christmas day.  Beyond Christmas, a significant pattern change will
be in progress.  The continued -AO/-EPO/-NAO should result in a
rather large mid-level gyre over central Canada...paving the way to
a well advertised return to cold over much of the eastern United
States.

==================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
==================================

Over the past few days, we`ve seen a decent amount of forecast
convergence within the guidance.  The early weekend system was
originally progged to shift through the northern Gulf coast states,
but the models abandoned that idea in the last day and half once
they sensed the fast flow coming in from the Pacific.  The early
week Canadian GEM picked up on this more sheared out, less poleward
track, while the Euro adjusted fairly quickly toward the GEM as the
week wore on.

This morning we find ourselves with a better forecast agreement for
the most part.  The GFS/GEM/ECWMF all have the early weekend system
brushing the southern Ohio Valley late Friday night into Saturday.
The system does not have much in the way of cold air to work with,
other than mainly diurnally driven cooling.  Thus, mixed P-type
issues remain...mainly across southern KY.  Have leaned close to the
Euro/GEM/GFS solution with highest weights in that order.  This
keeps good continuity with the previous forecast.  Overall
confidence with regards to precipitation remains medium to high
across southern KY...with mainly medium confidence as one gets near
the Ohio River.  Temperature confidence here remains generally
medium as well.

Into the middle part of next week, there seems to be decent
agreement with the large height anomaly developing over the northern
Plains and Midwest...then shifting into the Great Lakes.  The
pattern for us will remain mild into the early week and then turn
colder by the Holidays.  NAEFS ensemble guidance points to a very
strong height anomaly by the end of the forecast period...with
generalized return periods of every 10 years (decent anomaly).  The
MSLP anomalies are off the chart compared to climo suggestive of a 1
in 30 year event (quite impressive).  The anomalies from the
ensembles are quite high indicative of good ensemble agreement (can
not get high anomalies with high spreads in your ensembles).   Thus
forecast confidence even out at day 7 is medium.  For now have gone
close to the Euro Ensembles and NAEFS ensembles for the forecast.
This again maintains good continuity with the previous forecast.
Temperature confidence is slightly below medium given timing spreads
in the cold air arriving.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

As for sensible impacts, we are entering a high travel period this
weekend with the holiday traffic picking up both on the ground and
aloft.  The early weekend system is likely to bring mixed
precipitation to the state late Friday night and into Saturday.
Initially, thermal profiles are suggestive of a rain/snow mix,
quickly changing over to snow by late Friday night.  Highest
precipitation coverage looks to be across south-central KY here.  A
slight warming of the boundary layer and lack of cold air at the
surface may result in mixed p-type again during the day.  Some minor
snow accumulations still look possible over the southern end of the
state.  Overall, the model trends, have been less and less on each
run.  Nonetheless, there could be some negative travel impacts
Friday night and Saturday morning.   This system will quickly pass
out of the region by Saturday night with mainly dry conditions for
Sunday and into Monday.

A secondary wave may swing south of the region on Monday bringing
another round of showers.  However, main weather story will be the
developing strong low pressure system over the upper Plains and
Midwest.  This will drop into the Midwest on Tuesday and then into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday.  We`ll see numerous rain showers out
ahead of the system followed by an influx of colder air into the
region by Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. This should result
in a quick change over of rain showers to snow showers.  Coverage of
snow shower activity is still questionable at this juncture for the
late period given that the low really wraps up into the Great
Lakes.  Perhaps more of a sensible weather impact will be the gusty
winds associated with the surface pressure gradient.  Sustained
winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 35 MPH or higher are not out
of the question by the late forecast period.

As for temperatures, generally have stuck close to our SuperBlend
guidance which is really close the Euro 2m raw temps.  This result
in highs in the 40s for Mon/Tue with some low 50s possible by
Tuesday.  A return to more seasonal cold is expected by Wednesday
with highs back in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 609 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Wintry precipitation associated with a weakening southern plains
storm system will almost completely dissipate prior to reaching SDF
and LEX. For these two sites, expect only some flurries or light
sprinkles after 14z this morning at worst.

By the beginning of the BWG TAF, light sleet and/or freezing rain
will have ended or changed to flurries or light freezing drizzle.
Visibilities at BWG will stay VFR this morning. Ceilings at BWG will
likely stay VFR through the morning hours as well.

SDF and LEX still remains within the southern edge of extensive
strato-cu with MVFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings will continue at SDF and
LEX through 13z and 14z respectively, slowly scattering out by late
morning.

Winds will stay generally from the north overnight and Thursday at
around 4 to 8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 180834
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light wintry precip possible this morning across our southern counties...

Widespread isentropic lift at mid-levels ahead of a weakening 500mb
wave now over Missouri is spreading mixed wintry precipitation
across southern Missouri and western Tennessee. This precip is
however running into dry air at lower levels across the Commonwealth
and will weaken as it moves northeast into central Kentucky later
this morning.

Think that best chances for light mixed precipitation or snow
accumulations later this morning will lie along and south of a line
from Ohio County through Adair County, including the Bowling Green
area. Forecast soundings for this area shows a few hours of
saturation that may support snow accumulations of less than one
inch. With light snow possible during the morning rush, will
continue our ongoing Special Weather Statement highlighting slick roads
across our southwestern counties.

Think that flurries or sprinkles at worst are likely for areas along
or north of Interstate 64 towards mid to late morning, again, due to
dry air at lower levels. Winds will stay light from the north today
at around 5 to 7 mph.

Mostly cloudy skies expected this afternoon with lingering flurries,
mainly south of Interstate 64. Highs will rise into the mid to upper
30s once any precipitation ends.

High pressure will nose south across Kentucky tonight bringing light
winds and eventually partly cloudy skies later tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will stay seasonable with lows tonight in the mid to
upper 20s and highs Friday near 40.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

==================================
Long Term Synopsis
==================================

A moderate progressive flow aloft will be in place at the start of
the forecast period.  Flow is being driven by a fairly fast Pacific
jetstream which is being driven by two height anomalies out over the
Pacific.  A well-advertised mid-level wave will shear out as it
passes through the region Friday night and Saturday.  The upper flow
then becomes more zonal again by the late weekend and into early
next week before amplifying significantly toward the Christmas
holidays.  The amplification is driven by an emerging -AO pattern
combined with a swing back to a -EPO out over the Pacific.  This
result in a negative height anomaly over the gulf of AK while we see
ridging out over the western US.  At the same time, signals also
point to a -NAO developing (Greenland Block) in the later periods.
These features then lead to a very strong negative height anomaly
developing over the Midwest and shifting into the Great Lakes by
Christmas day.  Beyond Christmas, a significant pattern change will
be in progress.  The continued -AO/-EPO/-NAO should result in a
rather large mid-level gyre over central Canada...paving the way to
a well advertised return to cold over much of the eastern United
States.

==================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
==================================

Over the past few days, we`ve seen a decent amount of forecast
convergence within the guidance.  The early weekend system was
originally progged to shift through the northern Gulf coast states,
but the models abandoned that idea in the last day and half once
they sensed the fast flow coming in from the Pacific.  The early
week Canadian GEM picked up on this more sheared out, less poleward
track, while the Euro adjusted fairly quickly toward the GEM as the
week wore on.

This morning we find ourselves with a better forecast agreement for
the most part.  The GFS/GEM/ECWMF all have the early weekend system
brushing the southern Ohio Valley late Friday night into Saturday.
The system does not have much in the way of cold air to work with,
other than mainly diurnally driven cooling.  Thus, mixed P-type
issues remain...mainly across southern KY.  Have leaned close to the
Euro/GEM/GFS solution with highest weights in that order.  This
keeps good continuity with the previous forecast.  Overall
confidence with regards to precipitation remains medium to high
across southern KY...with mainly medium confidence as one gets near
the Ohio River.  Temperature confidence here remains generally
medium as well.

Into the middle part of next week, there seems to be decent
agreement with the large height anomaly developing over the northern
Plains and Midwest...then shifting into the Great Lakes.  The
pattern for us will remain mild into the early week and then turn
colder by the Holidays.  NAEFS ensemble guidance points to a very
strong height anomaly by the end of the forecast period...with
generalized return periods of every 10 years (decent anomaly).  The
MSLP anomalies are off the chart compared to climo suggestive of a 1
in 30 year event (quite impressive).  The anomalies from the
ensembles are quite high indicative of good ensemble agreement (can
not get high anomalies with high spreads in your ensembles).   Thus
forecast confidence even out at day 7 is medium.  For now have gone
close to the Euro Ensembles and NAEFS ensembles for the forecast.
This again maintains good continuity with the previous forecast.
Temperature confidence is slightly below medium given timing spreads
in the cold air arriving.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

As for sensible impacts, we are entering a high travel period this
weekend with the holiday traffic picking up both on the ground and
aloft.  The early weekend system is likely to bring mixed
precipitation to the state late Friday night and into Saturday.
Initially, thermal profiles are suggestive of a rain/snow mix,
quickly changing over to snow by late Friday night.  Highest
precipitation coverage looks to be across south-central KY here.  A
slight warming of the boundary layer and lack of cold air at the
surface may result in mixed p-type again during the day.  Some minor
snow accumulations still look possible over the southern end of the
state.  Overall, the model trends, have been less and less on each
run.  Nonetheless, there could be some negative travel impacts
Friday night and Saturday morning.   This system will quickly pass
out of the region by Saturday night with mainly dry conditions for
Sunday and into Monday.

A secondary wave may swing south of the region on Monday bringing
another round of showers.  However, main weather story will be the
developing strong low pressure system over the upper Plains and
Midwest.  This will drop into the Midwest on Tuesday and then into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday.  We`ll see numerous rain showers out
ahead of the system followed by an influx of colder air into the
region by Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. This should result
in a quick change over of rain showers to snow showers.  Coverage of
snow shower activity is still questionable at this juncture for the
late period given that the low really wraps up into the Great
Lakes.  Perhaps more of a sensible weather impact will be the gusty
winds associated with the surface pressure gradient.  Sustained
winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 35 MPH or higher are not out
of the question by the late forecast period.

As for temperatures, generally have stuck close to our SuperBlend
guidance which is really close the Euro 2m raw temps.  This result
in highs in the 40s for Mon/Tue with some low 50s possible by
Tuesday.  A return to more seasonal cold is expected by Wednesday
with highs back in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Wintry precipitation associated with a weakening southern plains
storm system will almost completely dissipate prior to reaching SDF
and LEX. For these two sites, expect only some flurries or light
sprinkles after 14z this morning at worst.

Light snow or light mixed precipitation is possible at BWG beginning
around 10z and continuing through 15z. MVFR visibilities and
ceilings will develop if any of this occurs. After light
precipitation ends, expect MVFR ceilings later this afternoon.

Over the next couple of hours, SDF and LEX will lie near the
southern edge of an extensive MVFR shield of strato-cu. Based on
satellite imagery, think that SDF will trend towards VFR ceilings by
around 07z, with LEX ceilings rising to VFR by 08z.

Winds will stay generally from the north overnight and Thursday at
around 4 to 8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 180834
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light wintry precip possible this morning across our southern counties...

Widespread isentropic lift at mid-levels ahead of a weakening 500mb
wave now over Missouri is spreading mixed wintry precipitation
across southern Missouri and western Tennessee. This precip is
however running into dry air at lower levels across the Commonwealth
and will weaken as it moves northeast into central Kentucky later
this morning.

Think that best chances for light mixed precipitation or snow
accumulations later this morning will lie along and south of a line
from Ohio County through Adair County, including the Bowling Green
area. Forecast soundings for this area shows a few hours of
saturation that may support snow accumulations of less than one
inch. With light snow possible during the morning rush, will
continue our ongoing Special Weather Statement highlighting slick roads
across our southwestern counties.

Think that flurries or sprinkles at worst are likely for areas along
or north of Interstate 64 towards mid to late morning, again, due to
dry air at lower levels. Winds will stay light from the north today
at around 5 to 7 mph.

Mostly cloudy skies expected this afternoon with lingering flurries,
mainly south of Interstate 64. Highs will rise into the mid to upper
30s once any precipitation ends.

High pressure will nose south across Kentucky tonight bringing light
winds and eventually partly cloudy skies later tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will stay seasonable with lows tonight in the mid to
upper 20s and highs Friday near 40.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

==================================
Long Term Synopsis
==================================

A moderate progressive flow aloft will be in place at the start of
the forecast period.  Flow is being driven by a fairly fast Pacific
jetstream which is being driven by two height anomalies out over the
Pacific.  A well-advertised mid-level wave will shear out as it
passes through the region Friday night and Saturday.  The upper flow
then becomes more zonal again by the late weekend and into early
next week before amplifying significantly toward the Christmas
holidays.  The amplification is driven by an emerging -AO pattern
combined with a swing back to a -EPO out over the Pacific.  This
result in a negative height anomaly over the gulf of AK while we see
ridging out over the western US.  At the same time, signals also
point to a -NAO developing (Greenland Block) in the later periods.
These features then lead to a very strong negative height anomaly
developing over the Midwest and shifting into the Great Lakes by
Christmas day.  Beyond Christmas, a significant pattern change will
be in progress.  The continued -AO/-EPO/-NAO should result in a
rather large mid-level gyre over central Canada...paving the way to
a well advertised return to cold over much of the eastern United
States.

==================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
==================================

Over the past few days, we`ve seen a decent amount of forecast
convergence within the guidance.  The early weekend system was
originally progged to shift through the northern Gulf coast states,
but the models abandoned that idea in the last day and half once
they sensed the fast flow coming in from the Pacific.  The early
week Canadian GEM picked up on this more sheared out, less poleward
track, while the Euro adjusted fairly quickly toward the GEM as the
week wore on.

This morning we find ourselves with a better forecast agreement for
the most part.  The GFS/GEM/ECWMF all have the early weekend system
brushing the southern Ohio Valley late Friday night into Saturday.
The system does not have much in the way of cold air to work with,
other than mainly diurnally driven cooling.  Thus, mixed P-type
issues remain...mainly across southern KY.  Have leaned close to the
Euro/GEM/GFS solution with highest weights in that order.  This
keeps good continuity with the previous forecast.  Overall
confidence with regards to precipitation remains medium to high
across southern KY...with mainly medium confidence as one gets near
the Ohio River.  Temperature confidence here remains generally
medium as well.

Into the middle part of next week, there seems to be decent
agreement with the large height anomaly developing over the northern
Plains and Midwest...then shifting into the Great Lakes.  The
pattern for us will remain mild into the early week and then turn
colder by the Holidays.  NAEFS ensemble guidance points to a very
strong height anomaly by the end of the forecast period...with
generalized return periods of every 10 years (decent anomaly).  The
MSLP anomalies are off the chart compared to climo suggestive of a 1
in 30 year event (quite impressive).  The anomalies from the
ensembles are quite high indicative of good ensemble agreement (can
not get high anomalies with high spreads in your ensembles).   Thus
forecast confidence even out at day 7 is medium.  For now have gone
close to the Euro Ensembles and NAEFS ensembles for the forecast.
This again maintains good continuity with the previous forecast.
Temperature confidence is slightly below medium given timing spreads
in the cold air arriving.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

As for sensible impacts, we are entering a high travel period this
weekend with the holiday traffic picking up both on the ground and
aloft.  The early weekend system is likely to bring mixed
precipitation to the state late Friday night and into Saturday.
Initially, thermal profiles are suggestive of a rain/snow mix,
quickly changing over to snow by late Friday night.  Highest
precipitation coverage looks to be across south-central KY here.  A
slight warming of the boundary layer and lack of cold air at the
surface may result in mixed p-type again during the day.  Some minor
snow accumulations still look possible over the southern end of the
state.  Overall, the model trends, have been less and less on each
run.  Nonetheless, there could be some negative travel impacts
Friday night and Saturday morning.   This system will quickly pass
out of the region by Saturday night with mainly dry conditions for
Sunday and into Monday.

A secondary wave may swing south of the region on Monday bringing
another round of showers.  However, main weather story will be the
developing strong low pressure system over the upper Plains and
Midwest.  This will drop into the Midwest on Tuesday and then into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday.  We`ll see numerous rain showers out
ahead of the system followed by an influx of colder air into the
region by Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. This should result
in a quick change over of rain showers to snow showers.  Coverage of
snow shower activity is still questionable at this juncture for the
late period given that the low really wraps up into the Great
Lakes.  Perhaps more of a sensible weather impact will be the gusty
winds associated with the surface pressure gradient.  Sustained
winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 35 MPH or higher are not out
of the question by the late forecast period.

As for temperatures, generally have stuck close to our SuperBlend
guidance which is really close the Euro 2m raw temps.  This result
in highs in the 40s for Mon/Tue with some low 50s possible by
Tuesday.  A return to more seasonal cold is expected by Wednesday
with highs back in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Wintry precipitation associated with a weakening southern plains
storm system will almost completely dissipate prior to reaching SDF
and LEX. For these two sites, expect only some flurries or light
sprinkles after 14z this morning at worst.

Light snow or light mixed precipitation is possible at BWG beginning
around 10z and continuing through 15z. MVFR visibilities and
ceilings will develop if any of this occurs. After light
precipitation ends, expect MVFR ceilings later this afternoon.

Over the next couple of hours, SDF and LEX will lie near the
southern edge of an extensive MVFR shield of strato-cu. Based on
satellite imagery, think that SDF will trend towards VFR ceilings by
around 07z, with LEX ceilings rising to VFR by 08z.

Winds will stay generally from the north overnight and Thursday at
around 4 to 8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 180834
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light wintry precip possible this morning across our southern counties...

Widespread isentropic lift at mid-levels ahead of a weakening 500mb
wave now over Missouri is spreading mixed wintry precipitation
across southern Missouri and western Tennessee. This precip is
however running into dry air at lower levels across the Commonwealth
and will weaken as it moves northeast into central Kentucky later
this morning.

Think that best chances for light mixed precipitation or snow
accumulations later this morning will lie along and south of a line
from Ohio County through Adair County, including the Bowling Green
area. Forecast soundings for this area shows a few hours of
saturation that may support snow accumulations of less than one
inch. With light snow possible during the morning rush, will
continue our ongoing Special Weather Statement highlighting slick roads
across our southwestern counties.

Think that flurries or sprinkles at worst are likely for areas along
or north of Interstate 64 towards mid to late morning, again, due to
dry air at lower levels. Winds will stay light from the north today
at around 5 to 7 mph.

Mostly cloudy skies expected this afternoon with lingering flurries,
mainly south of Interstate 64. Highs will rise into the mid to upper
30s once any precipitation ends.

High pressure will nose south across Kentucky tonight bringing light
winds and eventually partly cloudy skies later tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will stay seasonable with lows tonight in the mid to
upper 20s and highs Friday near 40.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

==================================
Long Term Synopsis
==================================

A moderate progressive flow aloft will be in place at the start of
the forecast period.  Flow is being driven by a fairly fast Pacific
jetstream which is being driven by two height anomalies out over the
Pacific.  A well-advertised mid-level wave will shear out as it
passes through the region Friday night and Saturday.  The upper flow
then becomes more zonal again by the late weekend and into early
next week before amplifying significantly toward the Christmas
holidays.  The amplification is driven by an emerging -AO pattern
combined with a swing back to a -EPO out over the Pacific.  This
result in a negative height anomaly over the gulf of AK while we see
ridging out over the western US.  At the same time, signals also
point to a -NAO developing (Greenland Block) in the later periods.
These features then lead to a very strong negative height anomaly
developing over the Midwest and shifting into the Great Lakes by
Christmas day.  Beyond Christmas, a significant pattern change will
be in progress.  The continued -AO/-EPO/-NAO should result in a
rather large mid-level gyre over central Canada...paving the way to
a well advertised return to cold over much of the eastern United
States.

==================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
==================================

Over the past few days, we`ve seen a decent amount of forecast
convergence within the guidance.  The early weekend system was
originally progged to shift through the northern Gulf coast states,
but the models abandoned that idea in the last day and half once
they sensed the fast flow coming in from the Pacific.  The early
week Canadian GEM picked up on this more sheared out, less poleward
track, while the Euro adjusted fairly quickly toward the GEM as the
week wore on.

This morning we find ourselves with a better forecast agreement for
the most part.  The GFS/GEM/ECWMF all have the early weekend system
brushing the southern Ohio Valley late Friday night into Saturday.
The system does not have much in the way of cold air to work with,
other than mainly diurnally driven cooling.  Thus, mixed P-type
issues remain...mainly across southern KY.  Have leaned close to the
Euro/GEM/GFS solution with highest weights in that order.  This
keeps good continuity with the previous forecast.  Overall
confidence with regards to precipitation remains medium to high
across southern KY...with mainly medium confidence as one gets near
the Ohio River.  Temperature confidence here remains generally
medium as well.

Into the middle part of next week, there seems to be decent
agreement with the large height anomaly developing over the northern
Plains and Midwest...then shifting into the Great Lakes.  The
pattern for us will remain mild into the early week and then turn
colder by the Holidays.  NAEFS ensemble guidance points to a very
strong height anomaly by the end of the forecast period...with
generalized return periods of every 10 years (decent anomaly).  The
MSLP anomalies are off the chart compared to climo suggestive of a 1
in 30 year event (quite impressive).  The anomalies from the
ensembles are quite high indicative of good ensemble agreement (can
not get high anomalies with high spreads in your ensembles).   Thus
forecast confidence even out at day 7 is medium.  For now have gone
close to the Euro Ensembles and NAEFS ensembles for the forecast.
This again maintains good continuity with the previous forecast.
Temperature confidence is slightly below medium given timing spreads
in the cold air arriving.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

As for sensible impacts, we are entering a high travel period this
weekend with the holiday traffic picking up both on the ground and
aloft.  The early weekend system is likely to bring mixed
precipitation to the state late Friday night and into Saturday.
Initially, thermal profiles are suggestive of a rain/snow mix,
quickly changing over to snow by late Friday night.  Highest
precipitation coverage looks to be across south-central KY here.  A
slight warming of the boundary layer and lack of cold air at the
surface may result in mixed p-type again during the day.  Some minor
snow accumulations still look possible over the southern end of the
state.  Overall, the model trends, have been less and less on each
run.  Nonetheless, there could be some negative travel impacts
Friday night and Saturday morning.   This system will quickly pass
out of the region by Saturday night with mainly dry conditions for
Sunday and into Monday.

A secondary wave may swing south of the region on Monday bringing
another round of showers.  However, main weather story will be the
developing strong low pressure system over the upper Plains and
Midwest.  This will drop into the Midwest on Tuesday and then into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday.  We`ll see numerous rain showers out
ahead of the system followed by an influx of colder air into the
region by Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. This should result
in a quick change over of rain showers to snow showers.  Coverage of
snow shower activity is still questionable at this juncture for the
late period given that the low really wraps up into the Great
Lakes.  Perhaps more of a sensible weather impact will be the gusty
winds associated with the surface pressure gradient.  Sustained
winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 35 MPH or higher are not out
of the question by the late forecast period.

As for temperatures, generally have stuck close to our SuperBlend
guidance which is really close the Euro 2m raw temps.  This result
in highs in the 40s for Mon/Tue with some low 50s possible by
Tuesday.  A return to more seasonal cold is expected by Wednesday
with highs back in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Wintry precipitation associated with a weakening southern plains
storm system will almost completely dissipate prior to reaching SDF
and LEX. For these two sites, expect only some flurries or light
sprinkles after 14z this morning at worst.

Light snow or light mixed precipitation is possible at BWG beginning
around 10z and continuing through 15z. MVFR visibilities and
ceilings will develop if any of this occurs. After light
precipitation ends, expect MVFR ceilings later this afternoon.

Over the next couple of hours, SDF and LEX will lie near the
southern edge of an extensive MVFR shield of strato-cu. Based on
satellite imagery, think that SDF will trend towards VFR ceilings by
around 07z, with LEX ceilings rising to VFR by 08z.

Winds will stay generally from the north overnight and Thursday at
around 4 to 8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 180523
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1223 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Light Wintry Precip Late Tonight and Thursday Morning...

A shortwave trough now over southeast NM will advance toward MO by
daybreak Thursday. Current precipitation over OK and northwest AR
will move toward us as well, bringing light precip to the southwest
half of the forecast area after midnight. This precip will have to
overcome some dry air initially at low/mid levels of the atmosphere,
but expect this to happen in the 08-13Z window. Temperatures will be
cold enough for a wintry mix of precipitation, as clearing skies
this afternoon should, despite upper clouds thickening this evening,
allow for several hours of good radiational cooling conditions
through the evening hours. Thus by midnight, many areas getting this
precip should get down to around 30 degrees.

The cold layer aloft may be deep enough to allow for either snow or
sleet, but a few model soundings show enough warm air aloft that
freezing rain cannot be thrown out of the mix yet. In addition,
winds will be light enough and the coldest air remaining over our
southeast counties may be moist enough for some patchy freezing fog
to occur ahead of any precip. Lots to watch for in other words. The
saving grace here is the dry air aloft evaporating a lot of the
precip as well as the short duration of the event, keeping QPF
light. Have an area of half inch accumulations for snow along an
axis from Hartford, KY to roughly Glasgow. Also have a few
hundredths of ice accumulations. These light values warrant issuing
a special weather statement highlighting these threats.

The rest of the day Thursday should remain cloudy and cold, with
highs stuck in the 30s. Diurnal curves will be narrow for
temperatures as cloud cover sticks around Thursday night as well,
leaving lows in the mid to upper 20s.


.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a ridge across the western CONUS, with a downstream trough
across the south-central Plains.  This trough will deamplify as it
pushes into the Ohio Valley this weekend.  A more substantial,
anomalous trough will then build into the Ohio Valley towards the
end of the period (around Christmas Eve).

The main focus of the long term period continues to be on the
upcoming weekend system, slated to move through the region Friday
night into Saturday.  The latest model guidance has continued to
trend weaker and further south with this system.  The 17/12Z
operational NAM is the most aggressive with QPF into the Ohio
Valley, owing to the fact it is a bit more negatively tilted and
stronger with the mid-level shortwave and associated surface low.
However, the ECMWF/GFS/GEM solutions, along with the 17/15Z SREF
solutions, depict more of an open, positively-tilted shortwave which
keeps the system more suppressed and weaker.  Looking at the
forcing, it appears the better moisture transport and
frontogenetical circulations will be well south of the KY border.  A
coupled jet structure, with a rapidly weakening northern stream
branch, will be the main driver of precipitation this far north,
which means amounts/rates should remain light.  Given the agreement
of these solutions and rather meager forcing progs, have trended the
forecast drier and further south.

What this means for the sensible weather in the Ohio Valley is less
in the way of impact, and more of just a glancing blow of perhaps
some light wintry precip.  Model soundings still differ a bit on
their solutions, with some even suggesting some light sleet
mixing in as this system passes, but will leave that out of the
forecast for now.  Some minor snow accumulations, mainly on grassy
surfaces, still appear possible generally along and southeast of a
line from Leitchfield to Richmond.  Further northwest, some light
snow may fall, but do not expect much in the way of accumulations
given the light QPF and poor rates to overcome warm grounds/roads.

Once this system passes, high pressure will build into the region
Sunday into Monday.  However, by Monday night, an anomalous trough
will be diving into portions of the central CONUS, with a surface
low expected to rapidly deepen somewhere over the eastern United
States.  Ensembles and long range deterministic guidance have been
hinting at this system for days, so confidence is high in a
significant storm somewhere over the eastern CONUS.  However,
details continue to remain murky on whether this system will impact
the Ohio Valley in the form of rain, snow, or a wintry mix.  For
now, taking an ensemble approach, it appears this system will be
mostly rain on the front side Monday night into Tuesday, changing to
snow as cold air quickly filters in Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Given the impact on the Christmas holiday, this is certainly a
system we will continue to monitor closely.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Wintry precipitation associated with a weakening southern plains
storm system will almost completely dissipate prior to reaching SDF
and LEX. For these two sites, expect only some flurries or light
sprinkles after 14z this morning at worst.

Light snow or light mixed precipitation is possible at BWG beginning
around 10z and continuing through 15z. MVFR visibilities and
ceilings will develop if any of this occurs. After light
precipitation ends, expect MVFR ceilings later this afternoon.

Over the next couple of hours, SDF and LEX will lie near the
southern edge of an extensive MVFR shield of strato-cu. Based on
satellite imagery, think that SDF will trend towards VFR ceilings by
around 07z, with LEX ceilings rising to VFR by 08z.

Winds will stay generally from the north overnight and Thursday at
around 4 to 8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 180523
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1223 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Light Wintry Precip Late Tonight and Thursday Morning...

A shortwave trough now over southeast NM will advance toward MO by
daybreak Thursday. Current precipitation over OK and northwest AR
will move toward us as well, bringing light precip to the southwest
half of the forecast area after midnight. This precip will have to
overcome some dry air initially at low/mid levels of the atmosphere,
but expect this to happen in the 08-13Z window. Temperatures will be
cold enough for a wintry mix of precipitation, as clearing skies
this afternoon should, despite upper clouds thickening this evening,
allow for several hours of good radiational cooling conditions
through the evening hours. Thus by midnight, many areas getting this
precip should get down to around 30 degrees.

The cold layer aloft may be deep enough to allow for either snow or
sleet, but a few model soundings show enough warm air aloft that
freezing rain cannot be thrown out of the mix yet. In addition,
winds will be light enough and the coldest air remaining over our
southeast counties may be moist enough for some patchy freezing fog
to occur ahead of any precip. Lots to watch for in other words. The
saving grace here is the dry air aloft evaporating a lot of the
precip as well as the short duration of the event, keeping QPF
light. Have an area of half inch accumulations for snow along an
axis from Hartford, KY to roughly Glasgow. Also have a few
hundredths of ice accumulations. These light values warrant issuing
a special weather statement highlighting these threats.

The rest of the day Thursday should remain cloudy and cold, with
highs stuck in the 30s. Diurnal curves will be narrow for
temperatures as cloud cover sticks around Thursday night as well,
leaving lows in the mid to upper 20s.


.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a ridge across the western CONUS, with a downstream trough
across the south-central Plains.  This trough will deamplify as it
pushes into the Ohio Valley this weekend.  A more substantial,
anomalous trough will then build into the Ohio Valley towards the
end of the period (around Christmas Eve).

The main focus of the long term period continues to be on the
upcoming weekend system, slated to move through the region Friday
night into Saturday.  The latest model guidance has continued to
trend weaker and further south with this system.  The 17/12Z
operational NAM is the most aggressive with QPF into the Ohio
Valley, owing to the fact it is a bit more negatively tilted and
stronger with the mid-level shortwave and associated surface low.
However, the ECMWF/GFS/GEM solutions, along with the 17/15Z SREF
solutions, depict more of an open, positively-tilted shortwave which
keeps the system more suppressed and weaker.  Looking at the
forcing, it appears the better moisture transport and
frontogenetical circulations will be well south of the KY border.  A
coupled jet structure, with a rapidly weakening northern stream
branch, will be the main driver of precipitation this far north,
which means amounts/rates should remain light.  Given the agreement
of these solutions and rather meager forcing progs, have trended the
forecast drier and further south.

What this means for the sensible weather in the Ohio Valley is less
in the way of impact, and more of just a glancing blow of perhaps
some light wintry precip.  Model soundings still differ a bit on
their solutions, with some even suggesting some light sleet
mixing in as this system passes, but will leave that out of the
forecast for now.  Some minor snow accumulations, mainly on grassy
surfaces, still appear possible generally along and southeast of a
line from Leitchfield to Richmond.  Further northwest, some light
snow may fall, but do not expect much in the way of accumulations
given the light QPF and poor rates to overcome warm grounds/roads.

Once this system passes, high pressure will build into the region
Sunday into Monday.  However, by Monday night, an anomalous trough
will be diving into portions of the central CONUS, with a surface
low expected to rapidly deepen somewhere over the eastern United
States.  Ensembles and long range deterministic guidance have been
hinting at this system for days, so confidence is high in a
significant storm somewhere over the eastern CONUS.  However,
details continue to remain murky on whether this system will impact
the Ohio Valley in the form of rain, snow, or a wintry mix.  For
now, taking an ensemble approach, it appears this system will be
mostly rain on the front side Monday night into Tuesday, changing to
snow as cold air quickly filters in Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Given the impact on the Christmas holiday, this is certainly a
system we will continue to monitor closely.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

Wintry precipitation associated with a weakening southern plains
storm system will almost completely dissipate prior to reaching SDF
and LEX. For these two sites, expect only some flurries or light
sprinkles after 14z this morning at worst.

Light snow or light mixed precipitation is possible at BWG beginning
around 10z and continuing through 15z. MVFR visibilities and
ceilings will develop if any of this occurs. After light
precipitation ends, expect MVFR ceilings later this afternoon.

Over the next couple of hours, SDF and LEX will lie near the
southern edge of an extensive MVFR shield of strato-cu. Based on
satellite imagery, think that SDF will trend towards VFR ceilings by
around 07z, with LEX ceilings rising to VFR by 08z.

Winds will stay generally from the north overnight and Thursday at
around 4 to 8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........JSD







000
FXUS63 KLMK 180303
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1003 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1002 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

The forecast remains on track this evening. Precipitation shield
ahead of a southern Plains system is starting to advance toward the
mid Mississippi River Valley at this hour. This shield will continue
to slowly push east through the night, with measurable precipitation
expected to arrive just before dawn across mainly our SW CWA.
Precipitation will have to overcome a significant dry layer which is
why we will continue to undercut raw QPF values. Precipitation type
is still in question as a deep 925-700 mb warm layer will hover right
around the 0-2 C range. This warm layer is above a 2-3 thousand foot
cold layer near the surface generally -2 to -3 C through much of the
layer. This thermal profile will allow for the possibility of rain,
snow, sleet, and freezing rain, although leaning more toward a
mostly light snow and sleet mix. Thermal profiles tend to be
running a bit cooler than latest hi res models based off the 00z OHX
sounding.

Either way, only light accums (less than a half inch snow and trace
amounts ice) of any precipitation type are expected, resulting in
patchy slick spots for the morning commute. Keep in mind,
measurable precipitation is still not a slam dunk as there is
quite the dry layer to overcome. In fact, latest hi res models dry
the majority of precipitation up over our area. Due to this
uncertainty see no reason to increase snow totals despite leaning
more toward a snow sounding. Think the Special Weather Statement
handles things well for the morning commute and will only update
to freshen up wording.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Light Wintry Precip Late Tonight and Thursday Morning...

A shortwave trough now over southeast NM will advance toward MO by
daybreak Thursday. Current precipitation over OK and northwest AR
will move toward us as well, bringing light precip to the southwest
half of the forecast area after midnight. This precip will have to
overcome some dry air initially at low/mid levels of the atmosphere,
but expect this to happen in the 08-13Z window. Temperatures will be
cold enough for a wintry mix of precipitation, as clearing skies
this afternoon should, despite upper clouds thickening this evening,
allow for several hours of good radiational cooling conditions
through the evening hours. Thus by midnight, many areas getting this
precip should get down to around 30 degrees.

The cold layer aloft may be deep enough to allow for either snow or
sleet, but a few model soundings show enough warm air aloft that
freezing rain cannot be thrown out of the mix yet. In addition,
winds will be light enough and the coldest air remaining over our
southeast counties may be moist enough for some patchy freezing fog
to occur ahead of any precip. Lots to watch for in other words. The
saving grace here is the dry air aloft evaporating a lot of the
precip as well as the short duration of the event, keeping QPF
light. Have an area of half inch accumulations for snow along an
axis from Hartford, KY to roughly Glasgow. Also have a few
hundredths of ice accumulations. These light values warrant issuing
a special weather statement highlighting these threats.

The rest of the day Thursday should remain cloudy and cold, with
highs stuck in the 30s. Diurnal curves will be narrow for
temperatures as cloud cover sticks around Thursday night as well,
leaving lows in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a ridge across the western CONUS, with a downstream trough
across the south-central Plains.  This trough will deamplify as it
pushes into the Ohio Valley this weekend.  A more substantial,
anomalous trough will then build into the Ohio Valley towards the
end of the period (around Christmas Eve).

The main focus of the long term period continues to be on the
upcoming weekend system, slated to move through the region Friday
night into Saturday.  The latest model guidance has continued to
trend weaker and further south with this system.  The 17/12Z
operational NAM is the most aggressive with QPF into the Ohio
Valley, owing to the fact it is a bit more negatively tilted and
stronger with the mid-level shortwave and associated surface low.
However, the ECMWF/GFS/GEM solutions, along with the 17/15Z SREF
solutions, depict more of an open, positively-tilted shortwave which
keeps the system more suppressed and weaker.  Looking at the
forcing, it appears the better moisture transport and
frontogenetical circulations will be well south of the KY border.  A
coupled jet structure, with a rapidly weakening northern stream
branch, will be the main driver of precipitation this far north,
which means amounts/rates should remain light.  Given the agreement
of these solutions and rather meager forcing progs, have trended the
forecast drier and further south.

What this means for the sensible weather in the Ohio Valley is less
in the way of impact, and more of just a glancing blow of perhaps
some light wintry precip.  Model soundings still differ a bit on
their solutions, with some even suggesting some light sleet
mixing in as this system passes, but will leave that out of the
forecast for now.  Some minor snow accumulations, mainly on grassy
surfaces, still appear possible generally along and southeast of a
line from Leitchfield to Richmond.  Further northwest, some light
snow may fall, but do not expect much in the way of accumulations
given the light QPF and poor rates to overcome warm grounds/roads.

Once this system passes, high pressure will build into the region
Sunday into Monday.  However, by Monday night, an anomalous trough
will be diving into portions of the central CONUS, with a surface
low expected to rapidly deepen somewhere over the eastern United
States.  Ensembles and long range deterministic guidance have been
hinting at this system for days, so confidence is high in a
significant storm somewhere over the eastern CONUS.  However,
details continue to remain murky on whether this system will impact
the Ohio Valley in the form of rain, snow, or a wintry mix.  For
now, taking an ensemble approach, it appears this system will be
mostly rain on the front side Monday night into Tuesday, changing to
snow as cold air quickly filters in Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Given the impact on the Christmas holiday, this is certainly a
system we will continue to monitor closely.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

A southern Plains storm system will slide across southern KY
tonight, bringing some mixed precipitation to BWG. At this point,
precipitation looks to be light enough to cause minimal impacts both
from a visibility and accumulation standpoint. Brief periods of MVFR
Vis/ceilings and very light accumulations cannot be ruled out from 2
AM CDT through 9 AM CDT. The bulk of the precipitation should end by
mid to late morning with only mention of VCSH through the rest of
the forecast cycle, along with MVFR ceilings.

Elsewhere, SDF/LEX should stay out of the measurable precipitation
although a few flurries may fall at times. Biggest concern at SDF is
whether the MVFR ceilings will hold as it is currently on the
southern fringes of the deck. Do think they will hang on until
around Midnight or after so will go with that and amend as
necessary. VFR at SDF/LEX otherwise with light and variable winds
generally out of the NW to NE range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 180303
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1003 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1002 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

The forecast remains on track this evening. Precipitation shield
ahead of a southern Plains system is starting to advance toward the
mid Mississippi River Valley at this hour. This shield will continue
to slowly push east through the night, with measurable precipitation
expected to arrive just before dawn across mainly our SW CWA.
Precipitation will have to overcome a significant dry layer which is
why we will continue to undercut raw QPF values. Precipitation type
is still in question as a deep 925-700 mb warm layer will hover right
around the 0-2 C range. This warm layer is above a 2-3 thousand foot
cold layer near the surface generally -2 to -3 C through much of the
layer. This thermal profile will allow for the possibility of rain,
snow, sleet, and freezing rain, although leaning more toward a
mostly light snow and sleet mix. Thermal profiles tend to be
running a bit cooler than latest hi res models based off the 00z OHX
sounding.

Either way, only light accums (less than a half inch snow and trace
amounts ice) of any precipitation type are expected, resulting in
patchy slick spots for the morning commute. Keep in mind,
measurable precipitation is still not a slam dunk as there is
quite the dry layer to overcome. In fact, latest hi res models dry
the majority of precipitation up over our area. Due to this
uncertainty see no reason to increase snow totals despite leaning
more toward a snow sounding. Think the Special Weather Statement
handles things well for the morning commute and will only update
to freshen up wording.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Light Wintry Precip Late Tonight and Thursday Morning...

A shortwave trough now over southeast NM will advance toward MO by
daybreak Thursday. Current precipitation over OK and northwest AR
will move toward us as well, bringing light precip to the southwest
half of the forecast area after midnight. This precip will have to
overcome some dry air initially at low/mid levels of the atmosphere,
but expect this to happen in the 08-13Z window. Temperatures will be
cold enough for a wintry mix of precipitation, as clearing skies
this afternoon should, despite upper clouds thickening this evening,
allow for several hours of good radiational cooling conditions
through the evening hours. Thus by midnight, many areas getting this
precip should get down to around 30 degrees.

The cold layer aloft may be deep enough to allow for either snow or
sleet, but a few model soundings show enough warm air aloft that
freezing rain cannot be thrown out of the mix yet. In addition,
winds will be light enough and the coldest air remaining over our
southeast counties may be moist enough for some patchy freezing fog
to occur ahead of any precip. Lots to watch for in other words. The
saving grace here is the dry air aloft evaporating a lot of the
precip as well as the short duration of the event, keeping QPF
light. Have an area of half inch accumulations for snow along an
axis from Hartford, KY to roughly Glasgow. Also have a few
hundredths of ice accumulations. These light values warrant issuing
a special weather statement highlighting these threats.

The rest of the day Thursday should remain cloudy and cold, with
highs stuck in the 30s. Diurnal curves will be narrow for
temperatures as cloud cover sticks around Thursday night as well,
leaving lows in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a ridge across the western CONUS, with a downstream trough
across the south-central Plains.  This trough will deamplify as it
pushes into the Ohio Valley this weekend.  A more substantial,
anomalous trough will then build into the Ohio Valley towards the
end of the period (around Christmas Eve).

The main focus of the long term period continues to be on the
upcoming weekend system, slated to move through the region Friday
night into Saturday.  The latest model guidance has continued to
trend weaker and further south with this system.  The 17/12Z
operational NAM is the most aggressive with QPF into the Ohio
Valley, owing to the fact it is a bit more negatively tilted and
stronger with the mid-level shortwave and associated surface low.
However, the ECMWF/GFS/GEM solutions, along with the 17/15Z SREF
solutions, depict more of an open, positively-tilted shortwave which
keeps the system more suppressed and weaker.  Looking at the
forcing, it appears the better moisture transport and
frontogenetical circulations will be well south of the KY border.  A
coupled jet structure, with a rapidly weakening northern stream
branch, will be the main driver of precipitation this far north,
which means amounts/rates should remain light.  Given the agreement
of these solutions and rather meager forcing progs, have trended the
forecast drier and further south.

What this means for the sensible weather in the Ohio Valley is less
in the way of impact, and more of just a glancing blow of perhaps
some light wintry precip.  Model soundings still differ a bit on
their solutions, with some even suggesting some light sleet
mixing in as this system passes, but will leave that out of the
forecast for now.  Some minor snow accumulations, mainly on grassy
surfaces, still appear possible generally along and southeast of a
line from Leitchfield to Richmond.  Further northwest, some light
snow may fall, but do not expect much in the way of accumulations
given the light QPF and poor rates to overcome warm grounds/roads.

Once this system passes, high pressure will build into the region
Sunday into Monday.  However, by Monday night, an anomalous trough
will be diving into portions of the central CONUS, with a surface
low expected to rapidly deepen somewhere over the eastern United
States.  Ensembles and long range deterministic guidance have been
hinting at this system for days, so confidence is high in a
significant storm somewhere over the eastern CONUS.  However,
details continue to remain murky on whether this system will impact
the Ohio Valley in the form of rain, snow, or a wintry mix.  For
now, taking an ensemble approach, it appears this system will be
mostly rain on the front side Monday night into Tuesday, changing to
snow as cold air quickly filters in Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Given the impact on the Christmas holiday, this is certainly a
system we will continue to monitor closely.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

A southern Plains storm system will slide across southern KY
tonight, bringing some mixed precipitation to BWG. At this point,
precipitation looks to be light enough to cause minimal impacts both
from a visibility and accumulation standpoint. Brief periods of MVFR
Vis/ceilings and very light accumulations cannot be ruled out from 2
AM CDT through 9 AM CDT. The bulk of the precipitation should end by
mid to late morning with only mention of VCSH through the rest of
the forecast cycle, along with MVFR ceilings.

Elsewhere, SDF/LEX should stay out of the measurable precipitation
although a few flurries may fall at times. Biggest concern at SDF is
whether the MVFR ceilings will hold as it is currently on the
southern fringes of the deck. Do think they will hang on until
around Midnight or after so will go with that and amend as
necessary. VFR at SDF/LEX otherwise with light and variable winds
generally out of the NW to NE range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 172312
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
612 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Light Wintry Precip Late Tonight and Thursday Morning...

A shortwave trough now over southeast NM will advance toward MO by
daybreak Thursday. Current precipitation over OK and northwest AR
will move toward us as well, bringing light precip to the southwest
half of the forecast area after midnight. This precip will have to
overcome some dry air initially at low/mid levels of the atmosphere,
but expect this to happen in the 08-13Z window. Temperatures will be
cold enough for a wintry mix of precipitation, as clearing skies
this afternoon should, despite upper clouds thickening this evening,
allow for several hours of good radiational cooling conditions
through the evening hours. Thus by midnight, many areas getting this
precip should get down to around 30 degrees.

The cold layer aloft may be deep enough to allow for either snow or
sleet, but a few model soundings show enough warm air aloft that
freezing rain cannot be thrown out of the mix yet. In addition,
winds will be light enough and the coldest air remaining over our
southeast counties may be moist enough for some patchy freezing fog
to occur ahead of any precip. Lots to watch for in other words. The
saving grace here is the dry air aloft evaporating a lot of the
precip as well as the short duration of the event, keeping QPF
light. Have an area of half inch accumulations for snow along an
axis from Hartford, KY to roughly Glasgow. Also have a few
hundredths of ice accumulations. These light values warrant issuing
a special weather statement highlighting these threats.

The rest of the day Thursday should remain cloudy and cold, with
highs stuck in the 30s. Diurnal curves will be narrow for
temperatures as cloud cover sticks around Thursday night as well,
leaving lows in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a ridge across the western CONUS, with a downstream trough
across the south-central Plains.  This trough will deamplify as it
pushes into the Ohio Valley this weekend.  A more substantial,
anomalous trough will then build into the Ohio Valley towards the
end of the period (around Christmas Eve).

The main focus of the long term period continues to be on the
upcoming weekend system, slated to move through the region Friday
night into Saturday.  The latest model guidance has continued to
trend weaker and further south with this system.  The 17/12Z
operational NAM is the most aggressive with QPF into the Ohio
Valley, owing to the fact it is a bit more negatively tilted and
stronger with the mid-level shortwave and associated surface low.
However, the ECMWF/GFS/GEM solutions, along with the 17/15Z SREF
solutions, depict more of an open, positively-tilted shortwave which
keeps the system more suppressed and weaker.  Looking at the
forcing, it appears the better moisture transport and
frontogenetical circulations will be well south of the KY border.  A
coupled jet structure, with a rapidly weakening northern stream
branch, will be the main driver of precipitation this far north,
which means amounts/rates should remain light.  Given the agreement
of these solutions and rather meager forcing progs, have trended the
forecast drier and further south.

What this means for the sensible weather in the Ohio Valley is less
in the way of impact, and more of just a glancing blow of perhaps
some light wintry precip.  Model soundings still differ a bit on
their solutions, with some even suggesting some light sleet
mixing in as this system passes, but will leave that out of the
forecast for now.  Some minor snow accumulations, mainly on grassy
surfaces, still appear possible generally along and southeast of a
line from Leitchfield to Richmond.  Further northwest, some light
snow may fall, but do not expect much in the way of accumulations
given the light QPF and poor rates to overcome warm grounds/roads.

Once this system passes, high pressure will build into the region
Sunday into Monday.  However, by Monday night, an anomalous trough
will be diving into portions of the central CONUS, with a surface
low expected to rapidly deepen somewhere over the eastern United
States.  Ensembles and long range deterministic guidance have been
hinting at this system for days, so confidence is high in a
significant storm somewhere over the eastern CONUS.  However,
details continue to remain murky on whether this system will impact
the Ohio Valley in the form of rain, snow, or a wintry mix.  For
now, taking an ensemble approach, it appears this system will be
mostly rain on the front side Monday night into Tuesday, changing to
snow as cold air quickly filters in Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Given the impact on the Christmas holiday, this is certainly a
system we will continue to monitor closely.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

A southern Plains storm system will slide across southern KY
tonight, bringing some mixed precipitation to BWG. At this point,
precipitation looks to be light enough to cause minimal impacts both
from a visibility and accumulation standpoint. Brief periods of MVFR
Vis/ceilings and very light accumulations cannot be ruled out from 2
AM CDT through 9 AM CDT. The bulk of the precipitation should end by
mid to late morning with only mention of VCSH through the rest of
the forecast cycle, along with MVFR ceilings.

Elsewhere, SDF/LEX should stay out of the measurable precipitation
although a few flurries may fall at times. Biggest concern at SDF is
whether the MVFR ceilings will hold as it is currently on the
southern fringes of the deck. Do think they will hang on until
around Midnight or after so will go with that and amend as
necessary. VFR at SDF/LEX otherwise with light and variable winds
generally out of the NW to NE range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 172312
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
612 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Light Wintry Precip Late Tonight and Thursday Morning...

A shortwave trough now over southeast NM will advance toward MO by
daybreak Thursday. Current precipitation over OK and northwest AR
will move toward us as well, bringing light precip to the southwest
half of the forecast area after midnight. This precip will have to
overcome some dry air initially at low/mid levels of the atmosphere,
but expect this to happen in the 08-13Z window. Temperatures will be
cold enough for a wintry mix of precipitation, as clearing skies
this afternoon should, despite upper clouds thickening this evening,
allow for several hours of good radiational cooling conditions
through the evening hours. Thus by midnight, many areas getting this
precip should get down to around 30 degrees.

The cold layer aloft may be deep enough to allow for either snow or
sleet, but a few model soundings show enough warm air aloft that
freezing rain cannot be thrown out of the mix yet. In addition,
winds will be light enough and the coldest air remaining over our
southeast counties may be moist enough for some patchy freezing fog
to occur ahead of any precip. Lots to watch for in other words. The
saving grace here is the dry air aloft evaporating a lot of the
precip as well as the short duration of the event, keeping QPF
light. Have an area of half inch accumulations for snow along an
axis from Hartford, KY to roughly Glasgow. Also have a few
hundredths of ice accumulations. These light values warrant issuing
a special weather statement highlighting these threats.

The rest of the day Thursday should remain cloudy and cold, with
highs stuck in the 30s. Diurnal curves will be narrow for
temperatures as cloud cover sticks around Thursday night as well,
leaving lows in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a ridge across the western CONUS, with a downstream trough
across the south-central Plains.  This trough will deamplify as it
pushes into the Ohio Valley this weekend.  A more substantial,
anomalous trough will then build into the Ohio Valley towards the
end of the period (around Christmas Eve).

The main focus of the long term period continues to be on the
upcoming weekend system, slated to move through the region Friday
night into Saturday.  The latest model guidance has continued to
trend weaker and further south with this system.  The 17/12Z
operational NAM is the most aggressive with QPF into the Ohio
Valley, owing to the fact it is a bit more negatively tilted and
stronger with the mid-level shortwave and associated surface low.
However, the ECMWF/GFS/GEM solutions, along with the 17/15Z SREF
solutions, depict more of an open, positively-tilted shortwave which
keeps the system more suppressed and weaker.  Looking at the
forcing, it appears the better moisture transport and
frontogenetical circulations will be well south of the KY border.  A
coupled jet structure, with a rapidly weakening northern stream
branch, will be the main driver of precipitation this far north,
which means amounts/rates should remain light.  Given the agreement
of these solutions and rather meager forcing progs, have trended the
forecast drier and further south.

What this means for the sensible weather in the Ohio Valley is less
in the way of impact, and more of just a glancing blow of perhaps
some light wintry precip.  Model soundings still differ a bit on
their solutions, with some even suggesting some light sleet
mixing in as this system passes, but will leave that out of the
forecast for now.  Some minor snow accumulations, mainly on grassy
surfaces, still appear possible generally along and southeast of a
line from Leitchfield to Richmond.  Further northwest, some light
snow may fall, but do not expect much in the way of accumulations
given the light QPF and poor rates to overcome warm grounds/roads.

Once this system passes, high pressure will build into the region
Sunday into Monday.  However, by Monday night, an anomalous trough
will be diving into portions of the central CONUS, with a surface
low expected to rapidly deepen somewhere over the eastern United
States.  Ensembles and long range deterministic guidance have been
hinting at this system for days, so confidence is high in a
significant storm somewhere over the eastern CONUS.  However,
details continue to remain murky on whether this system will impact
the Ohio Valley in the form of rain, snow, or a wintry mix.  For
now, taking an ensemble approach, it appears this system will be
mostly rain on the front side Monday night into Tuesday, changing to
snow as cold air quickly filters in Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Given the impact on the Christmas holiday, this is certainly a
system we will continue to monitor closely.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

A southern Plains storm system will slide across southern KY
tonight, bringing some mixed precipitation to BWG. At this point,
precipitation looks to be light enough to cause minimal impacts both
from a visibility and accumulation standpoint. Brief periods of MVFR
Vis/ceilings and very light accumulations cannot be ruled out from 2
AM CDT through 9 AM CDT. The bulk of the precipitation should end by
mid to late morning with only mention of VCSH through the rest of
the forecast cycle, along with MVFR ceilings.

Elsewhere, SDF/LEX should stay out of the measurable precipitation
although a few flurries may fall at times. Biggest concern at SDF is
whether the MVFR ceilings will hold as it is currently on the
southern fringes of the deck. Do think they will hang on until
around Midnight or after so will go with that and amend as
necessary. VFR at SDF/LEX otherwise with light and variable winds
generally out of the NW to NE range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 172007
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Light Wintry Precip Late Tonight and Thursday Morning...

A shortwave trough now over southeast NM will advance toward MO by
daybreak Thursday. Current precipitation over OK and northwest AR
will move toward us as well, bringing light precip to the southwest
half of the forecast area after midnight. This precip will have to
overcome some dry air initially at low/mid levels of the atmosphere,
but expect this to happen in the 08-13Z window. Temperatures will be
cold enough for a wintry mix of precipitation, as clearing skies
this afternoon should, despite upper clouds thickening this evening,
allow for several hours of good radiational cooling conditions
through the evening hours. Thus by midnight, many areas getting this
precip should get down to around 30 degrees.

The cold layer aloft may be deep enough to allow for either snow or
sleet, but a few model soundings show enough warm air aloft that
freezing rain cannot be thrown out of the mix yet. In addition,
winds will be light enough and the coldest air remaining over our
southeast counties may be moist enough for some patchy freezing fog
to occur ahead of any precip. Lots to watch for in other words. The
saving grace here is the dry air aloft evaporating a lot of the
precip as well as the short duration of the event, keeping QPF
light. Have an area of half inch accumulations for snow along an
axis from Hartford, KY to roughly Glasgow. Also have a few
hundredths of ice accumulations. These light values warrant issuing
a special weather statement highlighting these threats.

The rest of the day Thursday should remain cloudy and cold, with
highs stuck in the 30s. Diurnal curves will be narrow for
temperatures as cloud cover sticks around Thursday night as well,
leaving lows in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a ridge across the western CONUS, with a downstream trough
across the south-central Plains.  This trough will deamplify as it
pushes into the Ohio Valley this weekend.  A more substantial,
anomalous trough will then build into the Ohio Valley towards the
end of the period (around Christmas Eve).

The main focus of the long term period continues to be on the
upcoming weekend system, slated to move through the region Friday
night into Saturday.  The latest model guidance has continued to
trend weaker and further south with this system.  The 17/12Z
operational NAM is the most aggressive with QPF into the Ohio
Valley, owing to the fact it is a bit more negatively tilted and
stronger with the mid-level shortwave and associated surface low.
However, the ECMWF/GFS/GEM solutions, along with the 17/15Z SREF
solutions, depict more of an open, positively-tilted shortwave which
keeps the system more suppressed and weaker.  Looking at the
forcing, it appears the better moisture transport and
frontogenetical circulations will be well south of the KY border.  A
coupled jet structure, with a rapidly weakening northern stream
branch, will be the main driver of precipitation this far north,
which means amounts/rates should remain light.  Given the agreement
of these solutions and rather meager forcing progs, have trended the
forecast drier and further south.

What this means for the sensible weather in the Ohio Valley is less
in the way of impact, and more of just a glancing blow of perhaps
some light wintry precip.  Model soundings still differ a bit on
their solutions, with some even suggesting some light sleet
mixing in as this system passes, but will leave that out of the
forecast for now.  Some minor snow accumulations, mainly on grassy
surfaces, still appear possible generally along and southeast of a
line from Leitchfield to Richmond.  Further northwest, some light
snow may fall, but do not expect much in the way of accumulations
given the light QPF and poor rates to overcome warm grounds/roads.

Once this system passes, high pressure will build into the region
Sunday into Monday.  However, by Monday night, an anomalous trough
will be diving into portions of the central CONUS, with a surface
low expected to rapidly deepen somewhere over the eastern United
States.  Ensembles and long range deterministic guidance have been
hinting at this system for days, so confidence is high in a
significant storm somewhere over the eastern CONUS.  However,
details continue to remain murky on whether this system will impact
the Ohio Valley in the form of rain, snow, or a wintry mix.  For
now, taking an ensemble approach, it appears this system will be
mostly rain on the front side Monday night into Tuesday, changing to
snow as cold air quickly filters in Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Given the impact on the Christmas holiday, this is certainly a
system we will continue to monitor closely.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Seeing evidence of cloud deck scattering out across KBWG and getting
closer to the SDF/LEX corridor this hour. With this change, have
gone more optimistic with the afternoon cigs. Next up will be an
upper-level disturbance crossing the region early Thursday. This
system will have to overcome some dry air above the current
inversion in order to produce precip, but think there`s enough of a
chance down south to warrant a PROB30 group with light rain or sleet
and MVFR cigs. Have increasing clouds again overnight at the other
terminals, but think they will stay VFR after the current deck
breaks up.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 172007
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Light Wintry Precip Late Tonight and Thursday Morning...

A shortwave trough now over southeast NM will advance toward MO by
daybreak Thursday. Current precipitation over OK and northwest AR
will move toward us as well, bringing light precip to the southwest
half of the forecast area after midnight. This precip will have to
overcome some dry air initially at low/mid levels of the atmosphere,
but expect this to happen in the 08-13Z window. Temperatures will be
cold enough for a wintry mix of precipitation, as clearing skies
this afternoon should, despite upper clouds thickening this evening,
allow for several hours of good radiational cooling conditions
through the evening hours. Thus by midnight, many areas getting this
precip should get down to around 30 degrees.

The cold layer aloft may be deep enough to allow for either snow or
sleet, but a few model soundings show enough warm air aloft that
freezing rain cannot be thrown out of the mix yet. In addition,
winds will be light enough and the coldest air remaining over our
southeast counties may be moist enough for some patchy freezing fog
to occur ahead of any precip. Lots to watch for in other words. The
saving grace here is the dry air aloft evaporating a lot of the
precip as well as the short duration of the event, keeping QPF
light. Have an area of half inch accumulations for snow along an
axis from Hartford, KY to roughly Glasgow. Also have a few
hundredths of ice accumulations. These light values warrant issuing
a special weather statement highlighting these threats.

The rest of the day Thursday should remain cloudy and cold, with
highs stuck in the 30s. Diurnal curves will be narrow for
temperatures as cloud cover sticks around Thursday night as well,
leaving lows in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a ridge across the western CONUS, with a downstream trough
across the south-central Plains.  This trough will deamplify as it
pushes into the Ohio Valley this weekend.  A more substantial,
anomalous trough will then build into the Ohio Valley towards the
end of the period (around Christmas Eve).

The main focus of the long term period continues to be on the
upcoming weekend system, slated to move through the region Friday
night into Saturday.  The latest model guidance has continued to
trend weaker and further south with this system.  The 17/12Z
operational NAM is the most aggressive with QPF into the Ohio
Valley, owing to the fact it is a bit more negatively tilted and
stronger with the mid-level shortwave and associated surface low.
However, the ECMWF/GFS/GEM solutions, along with the 17/15Z SREF
solutions, depict more of an open, positively-tilted shortwave which
keeps the system more suppressed and weaker.  Looking at the
forcing, it appears the better moisture transport and
frontogenetical circulations will be well south of the KY border.  A
coupled jet structure, with a rapidly weakening northern stream
branch, will be the main driver of precipitation this far north,
which means amounts/rates should remain light.  Given the agreement
of these solutions and rather meager forcing progs, have trended the
forecast drier and further south.

What this means for the sensible weather in the Ohio Valley is less
in the way of impact, and more of just a glancing blow of perhaps
some light wintry precip.  Model soundings still differ a bit on
their solutions, with some even suggesting some light sleet
mixing in as this system passes, but will leave that out of the
forecast for now.  Some minor snow accumulations, mainly on grassy
surfaces, still appear possible generally along and southeast of a
line from Leitchfield to Richmond.  Further northwest, some light
snow may fall, but do not expect much in the way of accumulations
given the light QPF and poor rates to overcome warm grounds/roads.

Once this system passes, high pressure will build into the region
Sunday into Monday.  However, by Monday night, an anomalous trough
will be diving into portions of the central CONUS, with a surface
low expected to rapidly deepen somewhere over the eastern United
States.  Ensembles and long range deterministic guidance have been
hinting at this system for days, so confidence is high in a
significant storm somewhere over the eastern CONUS.  However,
details continue to remain murky on whether this system will impact
the Ohio Valley in the form of rain, snow, or a wintry mix.  For
now, taking an ensemble approach, it appears this system will be
mostly rain on the front side Monday night into Tuesday, changing to
snow as cold air quickly filters in Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Given the impact on the Christmas holiday, this is certainly a
system we will continue to monitor closely.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Seeing evidence of cloud deck scattering out across KBWG and getting
closer to the SDF/LEX corridor this hour. With this change, have
gone more optimistic with the afternoon cigs. Next up will be an
upper-level disturbance crossing the region early Thursday. This
system will have to overcome some dry air above the current
inversion in order to produce precip, but think there`s enough of a
chance down south to warrant a PROB30 group with light rain or sleet
and MVFR cigs. Have increasing clouds again overnight at the other
terminals, but think they will stay VFR after the current deck
breaks up.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RJS








000
FXUS63 KLMK 171734
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1234 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1000 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Issued an update to remove the drizzle wording from this morning`s
grids. Should remain cloudy for most of the day. Forecast soundings
show some breaking up of the saturation under the low-level
inversion, but then we`ll have clouds moving through aloft ahead of
the next system coming in from the Four Corners.

Issued at 640 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Extended the drizzle from southeast Indiana to the Bluegrass for a
few more hours as light radar echoes continue over our region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Light drizzle has moved mainly east of our region this morning
although some very spotty patches of drizzle may still be out
there.  Very light radar echoes indicate some light drizzle may
still be reaching the ground.  With temps expected to fall to or
below freezing this morning, a few slick spots aren`t out of the
question.  Will need to keep an eye on this.

The rest of the day looks dry with sfc high pressure nudging in from
the NW.  Cloud cover will be tricky today as the GFS scours out
clouds fairly quickly by mid to late morning and the NAM holds on to
low clouds for much of the day.  The NAM has been right more times
than not with the low clouds hanging around so will keep a mostly
cloudy forecast for the day as low level moisture becomes trapped
under an inversion.  With mostly cloudy skies and a colder airmass
in place, high temps will be limited to the mid 30s to low 40s.

The next forecast challenge will be a light precip event for mainly
south central KY late tonight into Thurs morning.  Models continue
to indicate very light QPF in the form of a wintry mix may fall
during the pre-dawn hours through mid morning Thurs.  However,
forecast soundings reveal a very dry layer just above the sfc which
may prevent mid level precip from reaching the ground.  Most
high-res models indicate only a little precip would get into our
west central KY counties as the precip shield largely dries up over
our west central KY counties.  Still feel that there is a slight
potential for a light wintry mix so left a 20-30% POP in for our
south central KY counties during the morning hours around sunrise.
With low temps expected to fall at or below freezing in this area, a
few slick spots may again be possible.  Will need to monitor this
light precip event closely.

For the rest of the day, models indicate mid level saturation may
work to overcome dryness in low levels enough to produce sprinkles
or flurries over the entire area Thurs afternoon.  High temps should
reach the mid 30s to around 40 Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Thursday Night through Tuesday...

Late Thursday will feature a southern stream related trough at 500mb
across Arizona, with a fast westerly confluent flow across the
Tennessee Valley. A weak shortwave will move east of the
Commonwealth late Thursday, leaving extensive cloudiness for
Thursday evening, along with nearly calm winds. Forecast soundings,
especially the more saturated NAM, hint at some very light freezing
drizzle during the evening hours. However, the drier GFS has too
little low level moisture to produce drizzle. Towards Friday
morning, low level moisture does dry out a bit. Expect mostly cloudy
skies Friday with seasonably cool temperatures, but, possibly, the
sun may peak out from time to time. Lows early Friday will fall into
the upper 20s, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the
afternoon.

Guidance continues to  trend farther south with a storm system
that potentially may produce some light snow or a wintry mix across
the Commonwealth on Saturday. A 500mb trough will de-amplify as it
moves across Arkansas very early Saturday. The NAM, GFS and the
latest ECMWF all agree with the development of a weak surface low
near Mobile, Alabama and an inverted surface trough extending
northwards into Tennessee. Central Kentucky will likely fall within
the very northern edge of an extensive precipitation shield
extending from Tennessee to the Gulf coast. Currently, very light
precip or none at all looks to fall northwest of the Ohio River.

The NAM has the coldest soundings, forecasting snow to develop
pre-dawn Saturday across Bowling Green and the rest of southern
Kentucky. The GFS is warmer, with its soundings forecasting rain for
the same area. The ECMWF is colder, closer to the NAM, and is
preferred. Think that light snow will develop across central and
north central Kentucky around dawn Saturday, with a rain/snow mix
possible right along the Tennessee border. This will continue
through much of the day Saturday prior to ending by evening. Some
light snow accumulations are certainly possible southeast of the
Ohio River if QPF is adequate. Highs Saturday will rise into the mid
to upper 30s. Partial clearing may develop Sunday with highs rising
a few degrees from Saturday`s peak temps.

A pattern change will begin Monday, as low pressure associated with
the northern stream of the jet strengthens over the Dakotas. This
will eventually carve a longwave trough centered over the upper
Mississippi River by Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop Monday
and continue Tuesday with several chances of light rain as a couple
of upper level disturbances rotate around this developing 500mb
trough. Showers are likely at some point Tuesday ahead of a sharp
front that will bring colder air Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Seeing evidence of cloud deck scattering out across KBWG and getting
closer to the SDF/LEX corridor this hour. With this change, have
gone more optimistic with the afternoon cigs. Next up will be an
upper-level disturbance crossing the region early Thursday. This
system will have to overcome some dry air above the current
inversion in order to produce precip, but think there`s enough of a
chance down south to warrant a PROB30 group with light rain or sleet
and MVFR cigs. Have increasing clouds again overnight at the other
terminals, but think they will stay VFR after the current deck
breaks up.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UpdateS........AMS/RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 171506
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1006 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1000 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Issued an update to remove the drizzle wording from this morning`s
grids. Should remain cloudy for most of the day. Forecast soundings
show some breaking up of the saturation under the low-level
inversion, but then we`ll have clouds moving through aloft ahead of
the next system coming in from the Four Corners.

Issued at 640 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Extended the drizzle from southeast Indiana to the Bluegrass for a
few more hours as light radar echoes continue over our region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Light drizzle has moved mainly east of our region this morning
although some very spotty patches of drizzle may still be out
there.  Very light radar echoes indicate some light drizzle may
still be reaching the ground.  With temps expected to fall to or
below freezing this morning, a few slick spots aren`t out of the
question.  Will need to keep an eye on this.

The rest of the day looks dry with sfc high pressure nudging in from
the NW.  Cloud cover will be tricky today as the GFS scours out
clouds fairly quickly by mid to late morning and the NAM holds on to
low clouds for much of the day.  The NAM has been right more times
than not with the low clouds hanging around so will keep a mostly
cloudy forecast for the day as low level moisture becomes trapped
under an inversion.  With mostly cloudy skies and a colder airmass
in place, high temps will be limited to the mid 30s to low 40s.

The next forecast challenge will be a light precip event for mainly
south central KY late tonight into Thurs morning.  Models continue
to indicate very light QPF in the form of a wintry mix may fall
during the pre-dawn hours through mid morning Thurs.  However,
forecast soundings reveal a very dry layer just above the sfc which
may prevent mid level precip from reaching the ground.  Most
high-res models indicate only a little precip would get into our
west central KY counties as the precip shield largely dries up over
our west central KY counties.  Still feel that there is a slight
potential for a light wintry mix so left a 20-30% POP in for our
south central KY counties during the morning hours around sunrise.
With low temps expected to fall at or below freezing in this area, a
few slick spots may again be possible.  Will need to monitor this
light precip event closely.

For the rest of the day, models indicate mid level saturation may
work to overcome dryness in low levels enough to produce sprinkles
or flurries over the entire area Thurs afternoon.  High temps should
reach the mid 30s to around 40 Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Thursday Night through Tuesday...

Late Thursday will feature a southern stream related trough at 500mb
across Arizona, with a fast westerly confluent flow across the
Tennessee Valley. A weak shortwave will move east of the
Commonwealth late Thursday, leaving extensive cloudiness for
Thursday evening, along with nearly calm winds. Forecast soundings,
especially the more saturated NAM, hint at some very light freezing
drizzle during the evening hours. However, the drier GFS has too
little low level moisture to produce drizzle. Towards Friday
morning, low level moisture does dry out a bit. Expect mostly cloudy
skies Friday with seasonably cool temperatures, but, possibly, the
sun may peak out from time to time. Lows early Friday will fall into
the upper 20s, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the
afternoon.

Guidance continues to  trend farther south with a storm system
that potentially may produce some light snow or a wintry mix across
the Commonwealth on Saturday. A 500mb trough will de-amplify as it
moves across Arkansas very early Saturday. The NAM, GFS and the
latest ECMWF all agree with the development of a weak surface low
near Mobile, Alabama and an inverted surface trough extending
northwards into Tennessee. Central Kentucky will likely fall within
the very northern edge of an extensive precipitation shield
extending from Tennessee to the Gulf coast. Currently, very light
precip or none at all looks to fall northwest of the Ohio River.

The NAM has the coldest soundings, forecasting snow to develop
pre-dawn Saturday across Bowling Green and the rest of southern
Kentucky. The GFS is warmer, with its soundings forecasting rain for
the same area. The ECMWF is colder, closer to the NAM, and is
preferred. Think that light snow will develop across central and
north central Kentucky around dawn Saturday, with a rain/snow mix
possible right along the Tennessee border. This will continue
through much of the day Saturday prior to ending by evening. Some
light snow accumulations are certainly possible southeast of the
Ohio River if QPF is adequate. Highs Saturday will rise into the mid
to upper 30s. Partial clearing may develop Sunday with highs rising
a few degrees from Saturday`s peak temps.

A pattern change will begin Monday, as low pressure associated with
the northern stream of the jet strengthens over the Dakotas. This
will eventually carve a longwave trough centered over the upper
Mississippi River by Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop Monday
and continue Tuesday with several chances of light rain as a couple
of upper level disturbances rotate around this developing 500mb
trough. Showers are likely at some point Tuesday ahead of a sharp
front that will bring colder air Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

MVFR cigs below 2 kft are expected for a large portion of this TAF
period with LEX likely seeing MVFR through this time tomorrow
morning.  Low level moisture trapped below an inversion will result
in low clouds for much of the morning hours for all TAF sites.
Light drizzle may still occur at LEX before 13Z.  The low clouds
will slowly erode from southwest to northeast today with BWG likely
returning to VFR by late afternoon...SDF by this evening...and LEX
by tomorrow morning.  WNW winds will remain between 6-10 kts this
morning decreasing to 4-7 kts for this afternoon.  A light wintry
mix may make its way into BWG near the very end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........AMS/RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 171506
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1006 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1000 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Issued an update to remove the drizzle wording from this morning`s
grids. Should remain cloudy for most of the day. Forecast soundings
show some breaking up of the saturation under the low-level
inversion, but then we`ll have clouds moving through aloft ahead of
the next system coming in from the Four Corners.

Issued at 640 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Extended the drizzle from southeast Indiana to the Bluegrass for a
few more hours as light radar echoes continue over our region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Light drizzle has moved mainly east of our region this morning
although some very spotty patches of drizzle may still be out
there.  Very light radar echoes indicate some light drizzle may
still be reaching the ground.  With temps expected to fall to or
below freezing this morning, a few slick spots aren`t out of the
question.  Will need to keep an eye on this.

The rest of the day looks dry with sfc high pressure nudging in from
the NW.  Cloud cover will be tricky today as the GFS scours out
clouds fairly quickly by mid to late morning and the NAM holds on to
low clouds for much of the day.  The NAM has been right more times
than not with the low clouds hanging around so will keep a mostly
cloudy forecast for the day as low level moisture becomes trapped
under an inversion.  With mostly cloudy skies and a colder airmass
in place, high temps will be limited to the mid 30s to low 40s.

The next forecast challenge will be a light precip event for mainly
south central KY late tonight into Thurs morning.  Models continue
to indicate very light QPF in the form of a wintry mix may fall
during the pre-dawn hours through mid morning Thurs.  However,
forecast soundings reveal a very dry layer just above the sfc which
may prevent mid level precip from reaching the ground.  Most
high-res models indicate only a little precip would get into our
west central KY counties as the precip shield largely dries up over
our west central KY counties.  Still feel that there is a slight
potential for a light wintry mix so left a 20-30% POP in for our
south central KY counties during the morning hours around sunrise.
With low temps expected to fall at or below freezing in this area, a
few slick spots may again be possible.  Will need to monitor this
light precip event closely.

For the rest of the day, models indicate mid level saturation may
work to overcome dryness in low levels enough to produce sprinkles
or flurries over the entire area Thurs afternoon.  High temps should
reach the mid 30s to around 40 Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Thursday Night through Tuesday...

Late Thursday will feature a southern stream related trough at 500mb
across Arizona, with a fast westerly confluent flow across the
Tennessee Valley. A weak shortwave will move east of the
Commonwealth late Thursday, leaving extensive cloudiness for
Thursday evening, along with nearly calm winds. Forecast soundings,
especially the more saturated NAM, hint at some very light freezing
drizzle during the evening hours. However, the drier GFS has too
little low level moisture to produce drizzle. Towards Friday
morning, low level moisture does dry out a bit. Expect mostly cloudy
skies Friday with seasonably cool temperatures, but, possibly, the
sun may peak out from time to time. Lows early Friday will fall into
the upper 20s, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the
afternoon.

Guidance continues to  trend farther south with a storm system
that potentially may produce some light snow or a wintry mix across
the Commonwealth on Saturday. A 500mb trough will de-amplify as it
moves across Arkansas very early Saturday. The NAM, GFS and the
latest ECMWF all agree with the development of a weak surface low
near Mobile, Alabama and an inverted surface trough extending
northwards into Tennessee. Central Kentucky will likely fall within
the very northern edge of an extensive precipitation shield
extending from Tennessee to the Gulf coast. Currently, very light
precip or none at all looks to fall northwest of the Ohio River.

The NAM has the coldest soundings, forecasting snow to develop
pre-dawn Saturday across Bowling Green and the rest of southern
Kentucky. The GFS is warmer, with its soundings forecasting rain for
the same area. The ECMWF is colder, closer to the NAM, and is
preferred. Think that light snow will develop across central and
north central Kentucky around dawn Saturday, with a rain/snow mix
possible right along the Tennessee border. This will continue
through much of the day Saturday prior to ending by evening. Some
light snow accumulations are certainly possible southeast of the
Ohio River if QPF is adequate. Highs Saturday will rise into the mid
to upper 30s. Partial clearing may develop Sunday with highs rising
a few degrees from Saturday`s peak temps.

A pattern change will begin Monday, as low pressure associated with
the northern stream of the jet strengthens over the Dakotas. This
will eventually carve a longwave trough centered over the upper
Mississippi River by Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop Monday
and continue Tuesday with several chances of light rain as a couple
of upper level disturbances rotate around this developing 500mb
trough. Showers are likely at some point Tuesday ahead of a sharp
front that will bring colder air Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

MVFR cigs below 2 kft are expected for a large portion of this TAF
period with LEX likely seeing MVFR through this time tomorrow
morning.  Low level moisture trapped below an inversion will result
in low clouds for much of the morning hours for all TAF sites.
Light drizzle may still occur at LEX before 13Z.  The low clouds
will slowly erode from southwest to northeast today with BWG likely
returning to VFR by late afternoon...SDF by this evening...and LEX
by tomorrow morning.  WNW winds will remain between 6-10 kts this
morning decreasing to 4-7 kts for this afternoon.  A light wintry
mix may make its way into BWG near the very end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........AMS/RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 171147
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
647 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 640 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Extended the drizzle from southeast Indiana to the Bluegrass for a
few more hours as light radar echoes continue over our region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Light drizzle has moved mainly east of our region this morning
although some very spotty patches of drizzle may still be out
there.  Very light radar echoes indicate some light drizzle may
still be reaching the ground.  With temps expected to fall to or
below freezing this morning, a few slick spots aren`t out of the
question.  Will need to keep an eye on this.

The rest of the day looks dry with sfc high pressure nudging in from
the NW.  Cloud cover will be tricky today as the GFS scours out
clouds fairly quickly by mid to late morning and the NAM holds on to
low clouds for much of the day.  The NAM has been right more times
than not with the low clouds hanging around so will keep a mostly
cloudy forecast for the day as low level moisture becomes trapped
under an inversion.  With mostly cloudy skies and a colder airmass
in place, high temps will be limited to the mid 30s to low 40s.

The next forecast challenge will be a light precip event for mainly
south central KY late tonight into Thurs morning.  Models continue
to indicate very light QPF in the form of a wintry mix may fall
during the pre-dawn hours through mid morning Thurs.  However,
forecast soundings reveal a very dry layer just above the sfc which
may prevent mid level precip from reaching the ground.  Most
high-res models indicate only a little precip would get into our
west central KY counties as the precip shield largely dries up over
our west central KY counties.  Still feel that there is a slight
potential for a light wintry mix so left a 20-30% POP in for our
south central KY counties during the morning hours around sunrise.
With low temps expected to fall at or below freezing in this area, a
few slick spots may again be possible.  Will need to monitor this
light precip event closely.

For the rest of the day, models indicate mid level saturation may
work to overcome dryness in low levels enough to produce sprinkles
or flurries over the entire area Thurs afternoon.  High temps should
reach the mid 30s to around 40 Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Thursday Night through Tuesday...

Late Thursday will feature a southern stream related trough at 500mb
across Arizona, with a fast westerly confluent flow across the
Tennessee Valley. A weak shortwave will move east of the
Commonwealth late Thursday, leaving extensive cloudiness for
Thursday evening, along with nearly calm winds. Forecast soundings,
especially the more saturated NAM, hint at some very light freezing
drizzle during the evening hours. However, the drier GFS has too
little low level moisture to produce drizzle. Towards Friday
morning, low level moisture does dry out a bit. Expect mostly cloudy
skies Friday with seasonably cool temperatures, but, possibly, the
sun may peak out from time to time. Lows early Friday will fall into
the upper 20s, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the
afternoon.

Guidance continues to  trend farther south with a storm system
that potentially may produce some light snow or a wintry mix across
the Commonwealth on Saturday. A 500mb trough will de-amplify as it
moves across Arkansas very early Saturday. The NAM, GFS and the
latest ECMWF all agree with the development of a weak surface low
near Mobile, Alabama and an inverted surface trough extending
northwards into Tennessee. Central Kentucky will likely fall within
the very northern edge of an extensive precipitation shield
extending from Tennessee to the Gulf coast. Currently, very light
precip or none at all looks to fall northwest of the Ohio River.

The NAM has the coldest soundings, forecasting snow to develop
pre-dawn Saturday across Bowling Green and the rest of southern
Kentucky. The GFS is warmer, with its soundings forecasting rain for
the same area. The ECMWF is colder, closer to the NAM, and is
preferred. Think that light snow will develop across central and
north central Kentucky around dawn Saturday, with a rain/snow mix
possible right along the Tennessee border. This will continue
through much of the day Saturday prior to ending by evening. Some
light snow accumulations are certainly possible southeast of the
Ohio River if QPF is adequate. Highs Saturday will rise into the mid
to upper 30s. Partial clearing may develop Sunday with highs rising
a few degrees from Saturday`s peak temps.

A pattern change will begin Monday, as low pressure associated with
the northern stream of the jet strengthens over the Dakotas. This
will eventually carve a longwave trough centered over the upper
Mississippi River by Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop Monday
and continue Tuesday with several chances of light rain as a couple
of upper level disturbances rotate around this developing 500mb
trough. Showers are likely at some point Tuesday ahead of a sharp
front that will bring colder air Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

MVFR cigs below 2 kft are expected for a large portion of this TAF
period with LEX likely seeing MVFR through this time tomorrow
morning.  Low level moisture trapped below an inversion will result
in low clouds for much of the morning hours for all TAF sites.
Light drizzle may still occur at LEX before 13Z.  The low clouds
will slowly erode from southwest to northeast today with BWG likely
returning to VFR by late afternoon...SDF by this evening...and LEX
by tomorrow morning.  WNW winds will remain between 6-10 kts this
morning decreasing to 4-7 kts for this afternoon.  A light wintry
mix may make its way into BWG near the very end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 171147
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
647 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 640 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Extended the drizzle from southeast Indiana to the Bluegrass for a
few more hours as light radar echoes continue over our region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Light drizzle has moved mainly east of our region this morning
although some very spotty patches of drizzle may still be out
there.  Very light radar echoes indicate some light drizzle may
still be reaching the ground.  With temps expected to fall to or
below freezing this morning, a few slick spots aren`t out of the
question.  Will need to keep an eye on this.

The rest of the day looks dry with sfc high pressure nudging in from
the NW.  Cloud cover will be tricky today as the GFS scours out
clouds fairly quickly by mid to late morning and the NAM holds on to
low clouds for much of the day.  The NAM has been right more times
than not with the low clouds hanging around so will keep a mostly
cloudy forecast for the day as low level moisture becomes trapped
under an inversion.  With mostly cloudy skies and a colder airmass
in place, high temps will be limited to the mid 30s to low 40s.

The next forecast challenge will be a light precip event for mainly
south central KY late tonight into Thurs morning.  Models continue
to indicate very light QPF in the form of a wintry mix may fall
during the pre-dawn hours through mid morning Thurs.  However,
forecast soundings reveal a very dry layer just above the sfc which
may prevent mid level precip from reaching the ground.  Most
high-res models indicate only a little precip would get into our
west central KY counties as the precip shield largely dries up over
our west central KY counties.  Still feel that there is a slight
potential for a light wintry mix so left a 20-30% POP in for our
south central KY counties during the morning hours around sunrise.
With low temps expected to fall at or below freezing in this area, a
few slick spots may again be possible.  Will need to monitor this
light precip event closely.

For the rest of the day, models indicate mid level saturation may
work to overcome dryness in low levels enough to produce sprinkles
or flurries over the entire area Thurs afternoon.  High temps should
reach the mid 30s to around 40 Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Thursday Night through Tuesday...

Late Thursday will feature a southern stream related trough at 500mb
across Arizona, with a fast westerly confluent flow across the
Tennessee Valley. A weak shortwave will move east of the
Commonwealth late Thursday, leaving extensive cloudiness for
Thursday evening, along with nearly calm winds. Forecast soundings,
especially the more saturated NAM, hint at some very light freezing
drizzle during the evening hours. However, the drier GFS has too
little low level moisture to produce drizzle. Towards Friday
morning, low level moisture does dry out a bit. Expect mostly cloudy
skies Friday with seasonably cool temperatures, but, possibly, the
sun may peak out from time to time. Lows early Friday will fall into
the upper 20s, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the
afternoon.

Guidance continues to  trend farther south with a storm system
that potentially may produce some light snow or a wintry mix across
the Commonwealth on Saturday. A 500mb trough will de-amplify as it
moves across Arkansas very early Saturday. The NAM, GFS and the
latest ECMWF all agree with the development of a weak surface low
near Mobile, Alabama and an inverted surface trough extending
northwards into Tennessee. Central Kentucky will likely fall within
the very northern edge of an extensive precipitation shield
extending from Tennessee to the Gulf coast. Currently, very light
precip or none at all looks to fall northwest of the Ohio River.

The NAM has the coldest soundings, forecasting snow to develop
pre-dawn Saturday across Bowling Green and the rest of southern
Kentucky. The GFS is warmer, with its soundings forecasting rain for
the same area. The ECMWF is colder, closer to the NAM, and is
preferred. Think that light snow will develop across central and
north central Kentucky around dawn Saturday, with a rain/snow mix
possible right along the Tennessee border. This will continue
through much of the day Saturday prior to ending by evening. Some
light snow accumulations are certainly possible southeast of the
Ohio River if QPF is adequate. Highs Saturday will rise into the mid
to upper 30s. Partial clearing may develop Sunday with highs rising
a few degrees from Saturday`s peak temps.

A pattern change will begin Monday, as low pressure associated with
the northern stream of the jet strengthens over the Dakotas. This
will eventually carve a longwave trough centered over the upper
Mississippi River by Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop Monday
and continue Tuesday with several chances of light rain as a couple
of upper level disturbances rotate around this developing 500mb
trough. Showers are likely at some point Tuesday ahead of a sharp
front that will bring colder air Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

MVFR cigs below 2 kft are expected for a large portion of this TAF
period with LEX likely seeing MVFR through this time tomorrow
morning.  Low level moisture trapped below an inversion will result
in low clouds for much of the morning hours for all TAF sites.
Light drizzle may still occur at LEX before 13Z.  The low clouds
will slowly erode from southwest to northeast today with BWG likely
returning to VFR by late afternoon...SDF by this evening...and LEX
by tomorrow morning.  WNW winds will remain between 6-10 kts this
morning decreasing to 4-7 kts for this afternoon.  A light wintry
mix may make its way into BWG near the very end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 171046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
546 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Light drizzle has moved mainly east of our region this morning
although some very spotty patches of drizzle may still be out
there.  Very light radar echoes indicate some light drizzle may
still be reaching the ground.  With temps expected to fall to or
below freezing this morning, a few slick spots aren`t out of the
question.  Will need to keep an eye on this.

The rest of the day looks dry with sfc high pressure nudging in from
the NW.  Cloud cover will be tricky today as the GFS scours out
clouds fairly quickly by mid to late morning and the NAM holds on to
low clouds for much of the day.  The NAM has been right more times
than not with the low clouds hanging around so will keep a mostly
cloudy forecast for the day as low level moisture becomes trapped
under an inversion.  With mostly cloudy skies and a colder airmass
in place, high temps will be limited to the mid 30s to low 40s.

The next forecast challenge will be a light precip event for mainly
south central KY late tonight into Thurs morning.  Models continue
to indicate very light QPF in the form of a wintry mix may fall
during the pre-dawn hours through mid morning Thurs.  However,
forecast soundings reveal a very dry layer just above the sfc which
may prevent mid level precip from reaching the ground.  Most
high-res models indicate only a little precip would get into our
west central KY counties as the precip shield largely dries up over
our west central KY counties.  Still feel that there is a slight
potential for a light wintry mix so left a 20-30% POP in for our
south central KY counties during the morning hours around sunrise.
With low temps expected to fall at or below freezing in this area, a
few slick spots may again be possible.  Will need to monitor this
light precip event closely.

For the rest of the day, models indicate mid level saturation may
work to overcome dryness in low levels enough to produce sprinkles
or flurries over the entire area Thurs afternoon.  High temps should
reach the mid 30s to around 40 Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Thursday Night through Tuesday...

Late Thursday will feature a southern stream related trough at 500mb
across Arizona, with a fast westerly confluent flow across the
Tennessee Valley. A weak shortwave will move east of the
Commonwealth late Thursday, leaving extensive cloudiness for
Thursday evening, along with nearly calm winds. Forecast soundings,
especially the more saturated NAM, hint at some very light freezing
drizzle during the evening hours. However, the drier GFS has too
little low level moisture to produce drizzle. Towards Friday
morning, low level moisture does dry out a bit. Expect mostly cloudy
skies Friday with seasonably cool temperatures, but, possibly, the
sun may peak out from time to time. Lows early Friday will fall into
the upper 20s, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the
afternoon.

Guidance continues to  trend farther south with a storm system
that potentially may produce some light snow or a wintry mix across
the Commonwealth on Saturday. A 500mb trough will de-amplify as it
moves across Arkansas very early Saturday. The NAM, GFS and the
latest ECMWF all agree with the development of a weak surface low
near Mobile, Alabama and an inverted surface trough extending
northwards into Tennessee. Central Kentucky will likely fall within
the very northern edge of an extensive precipitation shield
extending from Tennessee to the Gulf coast. Currently, very light
precip or none at all looks to fall northwest of the Ohio River.

The NAM has the coldest soundings, forecasting snow to develop
pre-dawn Saturday across Bowling Green and the rest of southern
Kentucky. The GFS is warmer, with its soundings forecasting rain for
the same area. The ECMWF is colder, closer to the NAM, and is
preferred. Think that light snow will develop across central and
north central Kentucky around dawn Saturday, with a rain/snow mix
possible right along the Tennessee border. This will continue
through much of the day Saturday prior to ending by evening. Some
light snow accumulations are certainly possible southeast of the
Ohio River if QPF is adequate. Highs Saturday will rise into the mid
to upper 30s. Partial clearing may develop Sunday with highs rising
a few degrees from Saturday`s peak temps.

A pattern change will begin Monday, as low pressure associated with
the northern stream of the jet strengthens over the Dakotas. This
will eventually carve a longwave trough centered over the upper
Mississippi River by Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop Monday
and continue Tuesday with several chances of light rain as a couple
of upper level disturbances rotate around this developing 500mb
trough. Showers are likely at some point Tuesday ahead of a sharp
front that will bring colder air Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

MVFR cigs below 2 kft are expected for a large portion of this TAF
period with LEX likely seeing MVFR through this time tomorrow
morning.  Low level moisture trapped below an inversion will result
in low clouds for much of the morning hours for all TAF sites.
Light drizzle may still occur at LEX before 13Z.  The low clouds
will slowly erode from southwest to northeast today with BWG likely
returning to VFR by late afternoon...SDF by this evening...and LEX
by tomorrow morning.  WNW winds will remain between 6-10 kts this
morning decreasing to 4-7 kts for this afternoon.  A light wintry
mix may make its way into BWG near the very end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 171046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
546 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Light drizzle has moved mainly east of our region this morning
although some very spotty patches of drizzle may still be out
there.  Very light radar echoes indicate some light drizzle may
still be reaching the ground.  With temps expected to fall to or
below freezing this morning, a few slick spots aren`t out of the
question.  Will need to keep an eye on this.

The rest of the day looks dry with sfc high pressure nudging in from
the NW.  Cloud cover will be tricky today as the GFS scours out
clouds fairly quickly by mid to late morning and the NAM holds on to
low clouds for much of the day.  The NAM has been right more times
than not with the low clouds hanging around so will keep a mostly
cloudy forecast for the day as low level moisture becomes trapped
under an inversion.  With mostly cloudy skies and a colder airmass
in place, high temps will be limited to the mid 30s to low 40s.

The next forecast challenge will be a light precip event for mainly
south central KY late tonight into Thurs morning.  Models continue
to indicate very light QPF in the form of a wintry mix may fall
during the pre-dawn hours through mid morning Thurs.  However,
forecast soundings reveal a very dry layer just above the sfc which
may prevent mid level precip from reaching the ground.  Most
high-res models indicate only a little precip would get into our
west central KY counties as the precip shield largely dries up over
our west central KY counties.  Still feel that there is a slight
potential for a light wintry mix so left a 20-30% POP in for our
south central KY counties during the morning hours around sunrise.
With low temps expected to fall at or below freezing in this area, a
few slick spots may again be possible.  Will need to monitor this
light precip event closely.

For the rest of the day, models indicate mid level saturation may
work to overcome dryness in low levels enough to produce sprinkles
or flurries over the entire area Thurs afternoon.  High temps should
reach the mid 30s to around 40 Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Thursday Night through Tuesday...

Late Thursday will feature a southern stream related trough at 500mb
across Arizona, with a fast westerly confluent flow across the
Tennessee Valley. A weak shortwave will move east of the
Commonwealth late Thursday, leaving extensive cloudiness for
Thursday evening, along with nearly calm winds. Forecast soundings,
especially the more saturated NAM, hint at some very light freezing
drizzle during the evening hours. However, the drier GFS has too
little low level moisture to produce drizzle. Towards Friday
morning, low level moisture does dry out a bit. Expect mostly cloudy
skies Friday with seasonably cool temperatures, but, possibly, the
sun may peak out from time to time. Lows early Friday will fall into
the upper 20s, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the
afternoon.

Guidance continues to  trend farther south with a storm system
that potentially may produce some light snow or a wintry mix across
the Commonwealth on Saturday. A 500mb trough will de-amplify as it
moves across Arkansas very early Saturday. The NAM, GFS and the
latest ECMWF all agree with the development of a weak surface low
near Mobile, Alabama and an inverted surface trough extending
northwards into Tennessee. Central Kentucky will likely fall within
the very northern edge of an extensive precipitation shield
extending from Tennessee to the Gulf coast. Currently, very light
precip or none at all looks to fall northwest of the Ohio River.

The NAM has the coldest soundings, forecasting snow to develop
pre-dawn Saturday across Bowling Green and the rest of southern
Kentucky. The GFS is warmer, with its soundings forecasting rain for
the same area. The ECMWF is colder, closer to the NAM, and is
preferred. Think that light snow will develop across central and
north central Kentucky around dawn Saturday, with a rain/snow mix
possible right along the Tennessee border. This will continue
through much of the day Saturday prior to ending by evening. Some
light snow accumulations are certainly possible southeast of the
Ohio River if QPF is adequate. Highs Saturday will rise into the mid
to upper 30s. Partial clearing may develop Sunday with highs rising
a few degrees from Saturday`s peak temps.

A pattern change will begin Monday, as low pressure associated with
the northern stream of the jet strengthens over the Dakotas. This
will eventually carve a longwave trough centered over the upper
Mississippi River by Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop Monday
and continue Tuesday with several chances of light rain as a couple
of upper level disturbances rotate around this developing 500mb
trough. Showers are likely at some point Tuesday ahead of a sharp
front that will bring colder air Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

MVFR cigs below 2 kft are expected for a large portion of this TAF
period with LEX likely seeing MVFR through this time tomorrow
morning.  Low level moisture trapped below an inversion will result
in low clouds for much of the morning hours for all TAF sites.
Light drizzle may still occur at LEX before 13Z.  The low clouds
will slowly erode from southwest to northeast today with BWG likely
returning to VFR by late afternoon...SDF by this evening...and LEX
by tomorrow morning.  WNW winds will remain between 6-10 kts this
morning decreasing to 4-7 kts for this afternoon.  A light wintry
mix may make its way into BWG near the very end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 170808
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Light drizzle has moved mainly east of our region this morning
although some very spotty patches of drizzle may still be out
there.  Very light radar echoes indicate some light drizzle may
still be reaching the ground.  With temps expected to fall to or
below freezing this morning, a few slick spots aren`t out of the
question.  Will need to keep an eye on this.

The rest of the day looks dry with sfc high pressure nudging in from
the NW.  Cloud cover will be tricky today as the GFS scours out
clouds fairly quickly by mid to late morning and the NAM holds on to
low clouds for much of the day.  The NAM has been right more times
than not with the low clouds hanging around so will keep a mostly
cloudy forecast for the day as low level moisture becomes trapped
under an inversion.  With mostly cloudy skies and a colder airmass
in place, high temps will be limited to the mid 30s to low 40s.

The next forecast challenge will be a light precip event for mainly
south central KY late tonight into Thurs morning.  Models continue
to indicate very light QPF in the form of a wintry mix may fall
during the pre-dawn hours through mid morning Thurs.  However,
forecast soundings reveal a very dry layer just above the sfc which
may prevent mid level precip from reaching the ground.  Most
high-res models indicate only a little precip would get into our
west central KY counties as the precip shield largely dries up over
our west central KY counties.  Still feel that there is a slight
potential for a light wintry mix so left a 20-30% POP in for our
south central KY counties during the morning hours around sunrise.
With low temps expected to fall at or below freezing in this area, a
few slick spots may again be possible.  Will need to monitor this
light precip event closely.

For the rest of the day, models indicate mid level saturation may
work to overcome dryness in low levels enough to produce sprinkles
or flurries over the entire area Thurs afternoon.  High temps should
reach the mid 30s to around 40 Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Thursday Night through Tuesday...

Late Thursday will feature a southern stream related trough at 500mb
across Arizona, with a fast westerly confluent flow across the
Tennessee Valley. A weak shortwave will move east of the
Commonwealth late Thursday, leaving extensive cloudiness for
Thursday evening, along with nearly calm winds. Forecast soundings,
especially the more saturated NAM, hint at some very light freezing
drizzle during the evening hours. However, the drier GFS has too
little low level moisture to produce drizzle. Towards Friday
morning, low level moisture does dry out a bit. Expect mostly cloudy
skies Friday with seasonably cool temperatures, but, possibly, the
sun may peak out from time to time. Lows early Friday will fall into
the upper 20s, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the
afternoon.

Guidance continues to  trend farther south with a storm system
that potentially may produce some light snow or a wintry mix across
the Commonwealth on Saturday. A 500mb trough will de-amplify as it
moves across Arkansas very early Saturday. The NAM, GFS and the
latest ECMWF all agree with the development of a weak surface low
near Mobile, Alabama and an inverted surface trough extending
northwards into Tennessee. Central Kentucky will likely fall within
the very northern edge of an extensive precipitation shield
extending from Tennessee to the Gulf coast. Currently, very light
precip or none at all looks to fall northwest of the Ohio River.

The NAM has the coldest soundings, forecasting snow to develop
pre-dawn Saturday across Bowling Green and the rest of southern
Kentucky. The GFS is warmer, with its soundings forecasting rain for
the same area. The ECMWF is colder, closer to the NAM, and is
preferred. Think that light snow will develop across central and
north central Kentucky around dawn Saturday, with a rain/snow mix
possible right along the Tennessee border. This will continue
through much of the day Saturday prior to ending by evening. Some
light snow accumulations are certainly possible southeast of the
Ohio River if QPF is adequate. Highs Saturday will rise into the mid
to upper 30s. Partial clearing may develop Sunday with highs rising
a few degrees from Saturday`s peak temps.

A pattern change will begin Monday, as low pressure associated with
the northern stream of the jet strengthens over the Dakotas. This
will eventually carve a longwave trough centered over the upper
Mississippi River by Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop Monday
and continue Tuesday with several chances of light rain as a couple
of upper level disturbances rotate around this developing 500mb
trough. Showers are likely at some point Tuesday ahead of a sharp
front that will bring colder air Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

IFR/MVFR conditions are expected for a large portions of this TAF
period.  LEX looks to see the worst flight conditions for the
longest period of time.  Low level moisture trapped below an
inversion will result in low clouds for much of the morning hours
for all TAF sites.  Light drizzle will continue on and off at
SDF/LEX through around 9-11Z.  The low clouds will slowly erode from
southwest to northeast today with BWG/SDF likely returning to VFR
late in the TAF period.  LEX will probably stay MVFR through this
TAF period.  WNW winds will remain between 6-10 kts overnight
decreasing to 4-7 kts for the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 170808
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Light drizzle has moved mainly east of our region this morning
although some very spotty patches of drizzle may still be out
there.  Very light radar echoes indicate some light drizzle may
still be reaching the ground.  With temps expected to fall to or
below freezing this morning, a few slick spots aren`t out of the
question.  Will need to keep an eye on this.

The rest of the day looks dry with sfc high pressure nudging in from
the NW.  Cloud cover will be tricky today as the GFS scours out
clouds fairly quickly by mid to late morning and the NAM holds on to
low clouds for much of the day.  The NAM has been right more times
than not with the low clouds hanging around so will keep a mostly
cloudy forecast for the day as low level moisture becomes trapped
under an inversion.  With mostly cloudy skies and a colder airmass
in place, high temps will be limited to the mid 30s to low 40s.

The next forecast challenge will be a light precip event for mainly
south central KY late tonight into Thurs morning.  Models continue
to indicate very light QPF in the form of a wintry mix may fall
during the pre-dawn hours through mid morning Thurs.  However,
forecast soundings reveal a very dry layer just above the sfc which
may prevent mid level precip from reaching the ground.  Most
high-res models indicate only a little precip would get into our
west central KY counties as the precip shield largely dries up over
our west central KY counties.  Still feel that there is a slight
potential for a light wintry mix so left a 20-30% POP in for our
south central KY counties during the morning hours around sunrise.
With low temps expected to fall at or below freezing in this area, a
few slick spots may again be possible.  Will need to monitor this
light precip event closely.

For the rest of the day, models indicate mid level saturation may
work to overcome dryness in low levels enough to produce sprinkles
or flurries over the entire area Thurs afternoon.  High temps should
reach the mid 30s to around 40 Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Thursday Night through Tuesday...

Late Thursday will feature a southern stream related trough at 500mb
across Arizona, with a fast westerly confluent flow across the
Tennessee Valley. A weak shortwave will move east of the
Commonwealth late Thursday, leaving extensive cloudiness for
Thursday evening, along with nearly calm winds. Forecast soundings,
especially the more saturated NAM, hint at some very light freezing
drizzle during the evening hours. However, the drier GFS has too
little low level moisture to produce drizzle. Towards Friday
morning, low level moisture does dry out a bit. Expect mostly cloudy
skies Friday with seasonably cool temperatures, but, possibly, the
sun may peak out from time to time. Lows early Friday will fall into
the upper 20s, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the
afternoon.

Guidance continues to  trend farther south with a storm system
that potentially may produce some light snow or a wintry mix across
the Commonwealth on Saturday. A 500mb trough will de-amplify as it
moves across Arkansas very early Saturday. The NAM, GFS and the
latest ECMWF all agree with the development of a weak surface low
near Mobile, Alabama and an inverted surface trough extending
northwards into Tennessee. Central Kentucky will likely fall within
the very northern edge of an extensive precipitation shield
extending from Tennessee to the Gulf coast. Currently, very light
precip or none at all looks to fall northwest of the Ohio River.

The NAM has the coldest soundings, forecasting snow to develop
pre-dawn Saturday across Bowling Green and the rest of southern
Kentucky. The GFS is warmer, with its soundings forecasting rain for
the same area. The ECMWF is colder, closer to the NAM, and is
preferred. Think that light snow will develop across central and
north central Kentucky around dawn Saturday, with a rain/snow mix
possible right along the Tennessee border. This will continue
through much of the day Saturday prior to ending by evening. Some
light snow accumulations are certainly possible southeast of the
Ohio River if QPF is adequate. Highs Saturday will rise into the mid
to upper 30s. Partial clearing may develop Sunday with highs rising
a few degrees from Saturday`s peak temps.

A pattern change will begin Monday, as low pressure associated with
the northern stream of the jet strengthens over the Dakotas. This
will eventually carve a longwave trough centered over the upper
Mississippi River by Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop Monday
and continue Tuesday with several chances of light rain as a couple
of upper level disturbances rotate around this developing 500mb
trough. Showers are likely at some point Tuesday ahead of a sharp
front that will bring colder air Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

IFR/MVFR conditions are expected for a large portions of this TAF
period.  LEX looks to see the worst flight conditions for the
longest period of time.  Low level moisture trapped below an
inversion will result in low clouds for much of the morning hours
for all TAF sites.  Light drizzle will continue on and off at
SDF/LEX through around 9-11Z.  The low clouds will slowly erode from
southwest to northeast today with BWG/SDF likely returning to VFR
late in the TAF period.  LEX will probably stay MVFR through this
TAF period.  WNW winds will remain between 6-10 kts overnight
decreasing to 4-7 kts for the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 170808
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Light drizzle has moved mainly east of our region this morning
although some very spotty patches of drizzle may still be out
there.  Very light radar echoes indicate some light drizzle may
still be reaching the ground.  With temps expected to fall to or
below freezing this morning, a few slick spots aren`t out of the
question.  Will need to keep an eye on this.

The rest of the day looks dry with sfc high pressure nudging in from
the NW.  Cloud cover will be tricky today as the GFS scours out
clouds fairly quickly by mid to late morning and the NAM holds on to
low clouds for much of the day.  The NAM has been right more times
than not with the low clouds hanging around so will keep a mostly
cloudy forecast for the day as low level moisture becomes trapped
under an inversion.  With mostly cloudy skies and a colder airmass
in place, high temps will be limited to the mid 30s to low 40s.

The next forecast challenge will be a light precip event for mainly
south central KY late tonight into Thurs morning.  Models continue
to indicate very light QPF in the form of a wintry mix may fall
during the pre-dawn hours through mid morning Thurs.  However,
forecast soundings reveal a very dry layer just above the sfc which
may prevent mid level precip from reaching the ground.  Most
high-res models indicate only a little precip would get into our
west central KY counties as the precip shield largely dries up over
our west central KY counties.  Still feel that there is a slight
potential for a light wintry mix so left a 20-30% POP in for our
south central KY counties during the morning hours around sunrise.
With low temps expected to fall at or below freezing in this area, a
few slick spots may again be possible.  Will need to monitor this
light precip event closely.

For the rest of the day, models indicate mid level saturation may
work to overcome dryness in low levels enough to produce sprinkles
or flurries over the entire area Thurs afternoon.  High temps should
reach the mid 30s to around 40 Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Thursday Night through Tuesday...

Late Thursday will feature a southern stream related trough at 500mb
across Arizona, with a fast westerly confluent flow across the
Tennessee Valley. A weak shortwave will move east of the
Commonwealth late Thursday, leaving extensive cloudiness for
Thursday evening, along with nearly calm winds. Forecast soundings,
especially the more saturated NAM, hint at some very light freezing
drizzle during the evening hours. However, the drier GFS has too
little low level moisture to produce drizzle. Towards Friday
morning, low level moisture does dry out a bit. Expect mostly cloudy
skies Friday with seasonably cool temperatures, but, possibly, the
sun may peak out from time to time. Lows early Friday will fall into
the upper 20s, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the
afternoon.

Guidance continues to  trend farther south with a storm system
that potentially may produce some light snow or a wintry mix across
the Commonwealth on Saturday. A 500mb trough will de-amplify as it
moves across Arkansas very early Saturday. The NAM, GFS and the
latest ECMWF all agree with the development of a weak surface low
near Mobile, Alabama and an inverted surface trough extending
northwards into Tennessee. Central Kentucky will likely fall within
the very northern edge of an extensive precipitation shield
extending from Tennessee to the Gulf coast. Currently, very light
precip or none at all looks to fall northwest of the Ohio River.

The NAM has the coldest soundings, forecasting snow to develop
pre-dawn Saturday across Bowling Green and the rest of southern
Kentucky. The GFS is warmer, with its soundings forecasting rain for
the same area. The ECMWF is colder, closer to the NAM, and is
preferred. Think that light snow will develop across central and
north central Kentucky around dawn Saturday, with a rain/snow mix
possible right along the Tennessee border. This will continue
through much of the day Saturday prior to ending by evening. Some
light snow accumulations are certainly possible southeast of the
Ohio River if QPF is adequate. Highs Saturday will rise into the mid
to upper 30s. Partial clearing may develop Sunday with highs rising
a few degrees from Saturday`s peak temps.

A pattern change will begin Monday, as low pressure associated with
the northern stream of the jet strengthens over the Dakotas. This
will eventually carve a longwave trough centered over the upper
Mississippi River by Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop Monday
and continue Tuesday with several chances of light rain as a couple
of upper level disturbances rotate around this developing 500mb
trough. Showers are likely at some point Tuesday ahead of a sharp
front that will bring colder air Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

IFR/MVFR conditions are expected for a large portions of this TAF
period.  LEX looks to see the worst flight conditions for the
longest period of time.  Low level moisture trapped below an
inversion will result in low clouds for much of the morning hours
for all TAF sites.  Light drizzle will continue on and off at
SDF/LEX through around 9-11Z.  The low clouds will slowly erode from
southwest to northeast today with BWG/SDF likely returning to VFR
late in the TAF period.  LEX will probably stay MVFR through this
TAF period.  WNW winds will remain between 6-10 kts overnight
decreasing to 4-7 kts for the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 170808
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Light drizzle has moved mainly east of our region this morning
although some very spotty patches of drizzle may still be out
there.  Very light radar echoes indicate some light drizzle may
still be reaching the ground.  With temps expected to fall to or
below freezing this morning, a few slick spots aren`t out of the
question.  Will need to keep an eye on this.

The rest of the day looks dry with sfc high pressure nudging in from
the NW.  Cloud cover will be tricky today as the GFS scours out
clouds fairly quickly by mid to late morning and the NAM holds on to
low clouds for much of the day.  The NAM has been right more times
than not with the low clouds hanging around so will keep a mostly
cloudy forecast for the day as low level moisture becomes trapped
under an inversion.  With mostly cloudy skies and a colder airmass
in place, high temps will be limited to the mid 30s to low 40s.

The next forecast challenge will be a light precip event for mainly
south central KY late tonight into Thurs morning.  Models continue
to indicate very light QPF in the form of a wintry mix may fall
during the pre-dawn hours through mid morning Thurs.  However,
forecast soundings reveal a very dry layer just above the sfc which
may prevent mid level precip from reaching the ground.  Most
high-res models indicate only a little precip would get into our
west central KY counties as the precip shield largely dries up over
our west central KY counties.  Still feel that there is a slight
potential for a light wintry mix so left a 20-30% POP in for our
south central KY counties during the morning hours around sunrise.
With low temps expected to fall at or below freezing in this area, a
few slick spots may again be possible.  Will need to monitor this
light precip event closely.

For the rest of the day, models indicate mid level saturation may
work to overcome dryness in low levels enough to produce sprinkles
or flurries over the entire area Thurs afternoon.  High temps should
reach the mid 30s to around 40 Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

Thursday Night through Tuesday...

Late Thursday will feature a southern stream related trough at 500mb
across Arizona, with a fast westerly confluent flow across the
Tennessee Valley. A weak shortwave will move east of the
Commonwealth late Thursday, leaving extensive cloudiness for
Thursday evening, along with nearly calm winds. Forecast soundings,
especially the more saturated NAM, hint at some very light freezing
drizzle during the evening hours. However, the drier GFS has too
little low level moisture to produce drizzle. Towards Friday
morning, low level moisture does dry out a bit. Expect mostly cloudy
skies Friday with seasonably cool temperatures, but, possibly, the
sun may peak out from time to time. Lows early Friday will fall into
the upper 20s, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the
afternoon.

Guidance continues to  trend farther south with a storm system
that potentially may produce some light snow or a wintry mix across
the Commonwealth on Saturday. A 500mb trough will de-amplify as it
moves across Arkansas very early Saturday. The NAM, GFS and the
latest ECMWF all agree with the development of a weak surface low
near Mobile, Alabama and an inverted surface trough extending
northwards into Tennessee. Central Kentucky will likely fall within
the very northern edge of an extensive precipitation shield
extending from Tennessee to the Gulf coast. Currently, very light
precip or none at all looks to fall northwest of the Ohio River.

The NAM has the coldest soundings, forecasting snow to develop
pre-dawn Saturday across Bowling Green and the rest of southern
Kentucky. The GFS is warmer, with its soundings forecasting rain for
the same area. The ECMWF is colder, closer to the NAM, and is
preferred. Think that light snow will develop across central and
north central Kentucky around dawn Saturday, with a rain/snow mix
possible right along the Tennessee border. This will continue
through much of the day Saturday prior to ending by evening. Some
light snow accumulations are certainly possible southeast of the
Ohio River if QPF is adequate. Highs Saturday will rise into the mid
to upper 30s. Partial clearing may develop Sunday with highs rising
a few degrees from Saturday`s peak temps.

A pattern change will begin Monday, as low pressure associated with
the northern stream of the jet strengthens over the Dakotas. This
will eventually carve a longwave trough centered over the upper
Mississippi River by Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop Monday
and continue Tuesday with several chances of light rain as a couple
of upper level disturbances rotate around this developing 500mb
trough. Showers are likely at some point Tuesday ahead of a sharp
front that will bring colder air Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

IFR/MVFR conditions are expected for a large portions of this TAF
period.  LEX looks to see the worst flight conditions for the
longest period of time.  Low level moisture trapped below an
inversion will result in low clouds for much of the morning hours
for all TAF sites.  Light drizzle will continue on and off at
SDF/LEX through around 9-11Z.  The low clouds will slowly erode from
southwest to northeast today with BWG/SDF likely returning to VFR
late in the TAF period.  LEX will probably stay MVFR through this
TAF period.  WNW winds will remain between 6-10 kts overnight
decreasing to 4-7 kts for the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 170510
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1210 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 906 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

The forecast is largely on track tonight, although a couple of minor
issues to address. Enough low level moisture remains trapped under
the 875mb inversion that patches of drizzle and even a few
measurable rain showers will be able to persist for several more
hours across our NE. This activity should stay mainly confined to SE
Indiana and our northern Bluegrass counties. Thermal profile should
remain mostly warm enough for liquid, however with the increasingly
cooler low levels advecting into the region, some frozen
precipitation in the form of ice pellets cannot be ruled out. A few
have been reported in southern Indiana recently. Moisture does not
appear to be deep enough (saturated to temps above -5C) to promote
ice crystals for snow, although the further north and east you get
the possibility cannot be ruled out. Have updated the grids to
linger slight chances of measurable rain and drizzle for a few more
hours, comibined with a small chance of light snow in our most
extreme NE counties. Will leave mention of any ice pellets out due
to the lack of impacts. Sub-freezing surface temps should lag a
couple hours behind the deepest moisture so not expecting any road
issues.

Also, increased sky cover for tomorrow. Most areas should stay
mostly cloudy except for our far SW where some breaks in the low
clouds are anticipated by midday.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Medium confidence in the short term. Although the main cold front
will exiting the east coast by tonight...there is a secondary or
reinforcing cold front expected to move this evening. This combined
with wrap around moisture from the low could result in drizzle or
even some light rain this evening. Nothing significant is expected
overnight. The next system worth mentioning could bring some wintry
precip to the area...mainly along and south of the West KY Parkway.
At this time we could see trace amounts across central KY averaging
around a half inch along the TN border. We could see brief mixes
with sleet or freezing rain or sleet. But should only see trace to a
hundredth of ice if any falls at all. In addition if the temps are
one to two degrees warmer than forecast we could see liquid precip
which would negate snow accumulations a great deal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Medium confidence in the extended at best due to the migration of
the next storm migrating southward from model run to model run.

The ECMWF seems to have the most stability from run to run but the
12z Tue run was slow to come in today. The gulf will open up ahead
of the next system allowing adequate moisture to flow back into
the region ahead of an upper level disturbance make its way onto
the west coast now. This upper level system does have surface
reflection as a surface low which marches across the gulf states.
This is a little far south for the most favorable path to produce
snow for this area. However as previous discussion stated we will
be on the northern portion of the precipitation shield. This
system will Friday night into Saturday according to model and
office consensus. After that high pressure will take over until
the middle of next week when the next system arrives.

As for temps...they appear to be near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

IFR/MVFR conditions are expected for a large portions of this TAF
period.  LEX looks to see the worst flight conditions for the
longest period of time.  Low level moisture trapped below an
inversion will result in low clouds for much of the morning hours
for all TAF sites.  Light drizzle will continue on and off at
SDF/LEX through around 9-11Z.  The low clouds will slowly erode from
southwest to northeast today with BWG/SDF likely returning to VFR
late in the TAF period.  LEX will probably stay MVFR through this
TAF period.  WNW winds will remain between 6-10 kts overnight
decreasing to 4-7 kts for the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....KH
Long Term......KH
Aviation.......AMS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 170510
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1210 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 906 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

The forecast is largely on track tonight, although a couple of minor
issues to address. Enough low level moisture remains trapped under
the 875mb inversion that patches of drizzle and even a few
measurable rain showers will be able to persist for several more
hours across our NE. This activity should stay mainly confined to SE
Indiana and our northern Bluegrass counties. Thermal profile should
remain mostly warm enough for liquid, however with the increasingly
cooler low levels advecting into the region, some frozen
precipitation in the form of ice pellets cannot be ruled out. A few
have been reported in southern Indiana recently. Moisture does not
appear to be deep enough (saturated to temps above -5C) to promote
ice crystals for snow, although the further north and east you get
the possibility cannot be ruled out. Have updated the grids to
linger slight chances of measurable rain and drizzle for a few more
hours, comibined with a small chance of light snow in our most
extreme NE counties. Will leave mention of any ice pellets out due
to the lack of impacts. Sub-freezing surface temps should lag a
couple hours behind the deepest moisture so not expecting any road
issues.

Also, increased sky cover for tomorrow. Most areas should stay
mostly cloudy except for our far SW where some breaks in the low
clouds are anticipated by midday.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Medium confidence in the short term. Although the main cold front
will exiting the east coast by tonight...there is a secondary or
reinforcing cold front expected to move this evening. This combined
with wrap around moisture from the low could result in drizzle or
even some light rain this evening. Nothing significant is expected
overnight. The next system worth mentioning could bring some wintry
precip to the area...mainly along and south of the West KY Parkway.
At this time we could see trace amounts across central KY averaging
around a half inch along the TN border. We could see brief mixes
with sleet or freezing rain or sleet. But should only see trace to a
hundredth of ice if any falls at all. In addition if the temps are
one to two degrees warmer than forecast we could see liquid precip
which would negate snow accumulations a great deal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Medium confidence in the extended at best due to the migration of
the next storm migrating southward from model run to model run.

The ECMWF seems to have the most stability from run to run but the
12z Tue run was slow to come in today. The gulf will open up ahead
of the next system allowing adequate moisture to flow back into
the region ahead of an upper level disturbance make its way onto
the west coast now. This upper level system does have surface
reflection as a surface low which marches across the gulf states.
This is a little far south for the most favorable path to produce
snow for this area. However as previous discussion stated we will
be on the northern portion of the precipitation shield. This
system will Friday night into Saturday according to model and
office consensus. After that high pressure will take over until
the middle of next week when the next system arrives.

As for temps...they appear to be near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

IFR/MVFR conditions are expected for a large portions of this TAF
period.  LEX looks to see the worst flight conditions for the
longest period of time.  Low level moisture trapped below an
inversion will result in low clouds for much of the morning hours
for all TAF sites.  Light drizzle will continue on and off at
SDF/LEX through around 9-11Z.  The low clouds will slowly erode from
southwest to northeast today with BWG/SDF likely returning to VFR
late in the TAF period.  LEX will probably stay MVFR through this
TAF period.  WNW winds will remain between 6-10 kts overnight
decreasing to 4-7 kts for the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....KH
Long Term......KH
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 170206
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
906 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 906 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

The forecast is largely on track tonight, although a couple of minor
issues to address. Enough low level moisture remains trapped under
the 875mb inversion that patches of drizzle and even a few
measurable rain showers will be able to persist for several more
hours across our NE. This activity should stay mainly confined to SE
Indiana and our northern Bluegrass counties. Thermal profile should
remain mostly warm enough for liquid, however with the increasingly
cooler low levels advecting into the region, some frozen
precipitation in the form of ice pellets cannot be ruled out. A few
have been reported in southern Indiana recently. Moisture does not
appear to be deep enough (saturated to temps above -5C) to promote
ice crystals for snow, although the further north and east you get
the possibility cannot be ruled out. Have updated the grids to
linger slight chances of measurable rain and drizzle for a few more
hours, comibined with a small chance of light snow in our most
extreme NE counties. Will leave mention of any ice pellets out due
to the lack of impacts. Sub-freezing surface temps should lag a
couple hours behind the deepest moisture so not expecting any road
issues.

Also, increased sky cover for tomorrow. Most areas should stay
mostly cloudy except for our far SW where some breaks in the low
clouds are anticipated by midday.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Medium confidence in the short term. Although the main cold front
will exiting the east coast by tonight...there is a secondary or
reinforcing cold front expected to move this evening. This combined
with wrap around moisture from the low could result in drizzle or
even some light rain this evening. Nothing significant is expected
overnight. The next system worth mentioning could bring some wintry
precip to the area...mainly along and south of the West KY Parkway.
At this time we could see trace amounts across central KY averaging
around a half inch along the TN border. We could see brief mixes
with sleet or freezing rain or sleet. But should only see trace to a
hundredth of ice if any falls at all. In addition if the temps are
one to two degrees warmer than forecast we could see liquid precip
which would negate snow accumulations a great deal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Medium confidence in the extended at best due to the migration of
the next storm migrating southward from model run to model run.

The ECMWF seems to have the most stability from run to run but the
12z Tue run was slow to come in today. The gulf will open up ahead
of the next system allowing adequate moisture to flow back into
the region ahead of an upper level disturbance make its way onto
the west coast now. This upper level system does have surface
reflection as a surface low which marches across the gulf states.
This is a little far south for the most favorable path to produce
snow for this area. However as previous discussion stated we will
be on the northern portion of the precipitation shield. This
system will Friday night into Saturday according to model and
office consensus. After that high pressure will take over until
the middle of next week when the next system arrives.

As for temps...they appear to be near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 605 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Some patchy drizzle will continue to cause minor impacts to
visibility over the next few hours at SDF/LEX, otherwise the main
concern will focus on ceilings and wind direction at SDF. Do expect
that the low MVFR ceilings currently in place will hold through the
overnight with little variation from where they are currently
settled. A few brief periods of IFR can`t be ruled out, but are not
expected to persist.

Wind direction at SDF is another concern as an almost direct
crosswind to the parallel runways in the 10 to 20 mph range could
cause some impacts to arrival/departure rates. Do have winds veering
slightly to around 280 degrees in a couple of hours with winds
settling around 10-15 mph toward Midnight. Winds should hold their
direction and will only slowly slacken thereafter.

Do expect BWG to scatter out late tomorrow morning through the
afternoon, however SDF/LEX will likely hold onto MVFR ceilings.
These ceilings are expected to rise above fuel-alternate though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....KH
Long Term......KH
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 170206
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
906 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 906 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

The forecast is largely on track tonight, although a couple of minor
issues to address. Enough low level moisture remains trapped under
the 875mb inversion that patches of drizzle and even a few
measurable rain showers will be able to persist for several more
hours across our NE. This activity should stay mainly confined to SE
Indiana and our northern Bluegrass counties. Thermal profile should
remain mostly warm enough for liquid, however with the increasingly
cooler low levels advecting into the region, some frozen
precipitation in the form of ice pellets cannot be ruled out. A few
have been reported in southern Indiana recently. Moisture does not
appear to be deep enough (saturated to temps above -5C) to promote
ice crystals for snow, although the further north and east you get
the possibility cannot be ruled out. Have updated the grids to
linger slight chances of measurable rain and drizzle for a few more
hours, comibined with a small chance of light snow in our most
extreme NE counties. Will leave mention of any ice pellets out due
to the lack of impacts. Sub-freezing surface temps should lag a
couple hours behind the deepest moisture so not expecting any road
issues.

Also, increased sky cover for tomorrow. Most areas should stay
mostly cloudy except for our far SW where some breaks in the low
clouds are anticipated by midday.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Medium confidence in the short term. Although the main cold front
will exiting the east coast by tonight...there is a secondary or
reinforcing cold front expected to move this evening. This combined
with wrap around moisture from the low could result in drizzle or
even some light rain this evening. Nothing significant is expected
overnight. The next system worth mentioning could bring some wintry
precip to the area...mainly along and south of the West KY Parkway.
At this time we could see trace amounts across central KY averaging
around a half inch along the TN border. We could see brief mixes
with sleet or freezing rain or sleet. But should only see trace to a
hundredth of ice if any falls at all. In addition if the temps are
one to two degrees warmer than forecast we could see liquid precip
which would negate snow accumulations a great deal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Medium confidence in the extended at best due to the migration of
the next storm migrating southward from model run to model run.

The ECMWF seems to have the most stability from run to run but the
12z Tue run was slow to come in today. The gulf will open up ahead
of the next system allowing adequate moisture to flow back into
the region ahead of an upper level disturbance make its way onto
the west coast now. This upper level system does have surface
reflection as a surface low which marches across the gulf states.
This is a little far south for the most favorable path to produce
snow for this area. However as previous discussion stated we will
be on the northern portion of the precipitation shield. This
system will Friday night into Saturday according to model and
office consensus. After that high pressure will take over until
the middle of next week when the next system arrives.

As for temps...they appear to be near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 605 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Some patchy drizzle will continue to cause minor impacts to
visibility over the next few hours at SDF/LEX, otherwise the main
concern will focus on ceilings and wind direction at SDF. Do expect
that the low MVFR ceilings currently in place will hold through the
overnight with little variation from where they are currently
settled. A few brief periods of IFR can`t be ruled out, but are not
expected to persist.

Wind direction at SDF is another concern as an almost direct
crosswind to the parallel runways in the 10 to 20 mph range could
cause some impacts to arrival/departure rates. Do have winds veering
slightly to around 280 degrees in a couple of hours with winds
settling around 10-15 mph toward Midnight. Winds should hold their
direction and will only slowly slacken thereafter.

Do expect BWG to scatter out late tomorrow morning through the
afternoon, however SDF/LEX will likely hold onto MVFR ceilings.
These ceilings are expected to rise above fuel-alternate though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....KH
Long Term......KH
Aviation.......BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 162310
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Medium confidence in the short term. Although the main cold front
will exiting the east coast by tonight...there is a secondary or
reinforcing cold front expected to move this evening. This combined
with wrap around moisture from the low could result in drizzle or
even some light rain this evening. Nothing significant is expected
overnight. The next system worth mentioning could bring some wintry
precip to the area...mainly along and south of the West KY Parkway.
At this time we could see trace amounts across central KY averaging
around a half inch along the TN border. We could see brief mixes
with sleet or freezing rain or sleet. But should only see trace to a
hundredth of ice if any falls at all. In addition if the temps are
one to two degrees warmer than forecast we could see liquid precip
which would negate snow accumulations a great deal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Medium confidence in the extended at best due to the migration of
the next storm migrating southward from model run to model run.

The ECMWF seems to have the most stability from run to run but the
12z Tue run was slow to come in today. The gulf will open up ahead
of the next system allowing adequate moisture to flow back into
the region ahead of an upper level disturbance make its way onto
the west coast now. This upper level system does have surface
reflection as a surface low which marches across the gulf states.
This is a little far south for the most favorable path to produce
snow for this area. However as previous discussion stated we will
be on the northern portion of the precipitation shield. This
system will Friday night into Saturday according to model and
office consensus. After that high pressure will take over until
the middle of next week when the next system arrives.

As for temps...they appear to be near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 605 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Some patchy drizzle will continue to cause minor impacts to
visibility over the next few hours at SDF/LEX, otherwise the main
concern will focus on ceilings and wind direction at SDF. Do expect
that the low MVFR ceilings currently in place will hold through the
overnight with little variation from where they are currently
settled. A few brief periods of IFR can`t be ruled out, but are not
expected to persist.

Wind direction at SDF is another concern as an almost direct
crosswind to the parallel runways in the 10 to 20 mph range could
cause some impacts to arrival/departure rates. Do have winds veering
slightly to around 280 degrees in a couple of hours with winds
settling around 10-15 mph toward Midnight. Winds should hold their
direction and will only slowly slacken thereafter.

Do expect BWG to scatter out late tomorrow morning through the
afternoon, however SDF/LEX will likely hold onto MVFR ceilings.
These ceilings are expected to rise above fuel-alternate though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KH
Long Term.........KH
Aviation..........BJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 162310
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Medium confidence in the short term. Although the main cold front
will exiting the east coast by tonight...there is a secondary or
reinforcing cold front expected to move this evening. This combined
with wrap around moisture from the low could result in drizzle or
even some light rain this evening. Nothing significant is expected
overnight. The next system worth mentioning could bring some wintry
precip to the area...mainly along and south of the West KY Parkway.
At this time we could see trace amounts across central KY averaging
around a half inch along the TN border. We could see brief mixes
with sleet or freezing rain or sleet. But should only see trace to a
hundredth of ice if any falls at all. In addition if the temps are
one to two degrees warmer than forecast we could see liquid precip
which would negate snow accumulations a great deal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Medium confidence in the extended at best due to the migration of
the next storm migrating southward from model run to model run.

The ECMWF seems to have the most stability from run to run but the
12z Tue run was slow to come in today. The gulf will open up ahead
of the next system allowing adequate moisture to flow back into
the region ahead of an upper level disturbance make its way onto
the west coast now. This upper level system does have surface
reflection as a surface low which marches across the gulf states.
This is a little far south for the most favorable path to produce
snow for this area. However as previous discussion stated we will
be on the northern portion of the precipitation shield. This
system will Friday night into Saturday according to model and
office consensus. After that high pressure will take over until
the middle of next week when the next system arrives.

As for temps...they appear to be near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 605 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Some patchy drizzle will continue to cause minor impacts to
visibility over the next few hours at SDF/LEX, otherwise the main
concern will focus on ceilings and wind direction at SDF. Do expect
that the low MVFR ceilings currently in place will hold through the
overnight with little variation from where they are currently
settled. A few brief periods of IFR can`t be ruled out, but are not
expected to persist.

Wind direction at SDF is another concern as an almost direct
crosswind to the parallel runways in the 10 to 20 mph range could
cause some impacts to arrival/departure rates. Do have winds veering
slightly to around 280 degrees in a couple of hours with winds
settling around 10-15 mph toward Midnight. Winds should hold their
direction and will only slowly slacken thereafter.

Do expect BWG to scatter out late tomorrow morning through the
afternoon, however SDF/LEX will likely hold onto MVFR ceilings.
These ceilings are expected to rise above fuel-alternate though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KH
Long Term.........KH
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 161926
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
226 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Medium confidence in the short term. Although the main cold front
will exiting the east coast by tonight...there is a secondary or
reinforcing cold front expected to move this evening. This
combined with wrap around moisture from the low could result in
drizzle or even some light rain this evening. Nothing significant
is expected overnight. The next system worth mentioning could bring
some wintry precip to the area...mainly along and south of the
West KY Parkway. At this time we could see trace amounts across
central KY averaging around a half inch along the TN border. We
could see brief mixes with sleet or freezing rain or sleet. But
should only see trace to a hundredth of ice if any falls at all.
In addition if the temps are one to two degrees warmer than
forecast we could see liquid precip which would negate snow
accumulations a great deal.


.LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Medium confidence in the extended at best due to the migration of
the next storm migrating southward from model run to model run.

The ECMWF seems to have the most stability from run to run but the
12z Tue run was slow to come in today. The gulf will open up ahead
of the next system allowing adequate moisture to flow back into
the region ahead of an upper level disturbance make its way onto
the west coast now. This upper level system does have surface
reflection as a surface low which marches across the gulf states.
This is a little far south for the most favorable path to produce
snow for this area. However as previous discussion stated we will
be on the northern portion of the precipitation shield. This
system will Friday night into Saturday according to model and
office consensus. After that high pressure will take over until
the middle of next week when the next system arrives.

As for temps...they appear to be near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

MVFR cigs will prevail this evening, whilest parent cyclone departs
Ohio Valley. Will continue to lean pessimistically with night-time
inversion and trapped lower trop moisture, meaning we will keep the
MVFR cigs in for much of the night. But by morning, the parent
cyclone should be far enough east, with the drier air working down
the column and by the planning period, scattering remaining low VFR
or MVFR cigs. High clouds may be streaming in again by the effective
end time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KH
Long Term.........KH
Aviation..........DH







000
FXUS63 KLMK 161926
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
226 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Medium confidence in the short term. Although the main cold front
will exiting the east coast by tonight...there is a secondary or
reinforcing cold front expected to move this evening. This
combined with wrap around moisture from the low could result in
drizzle or even some light rain this evening. Nothing significant
is expected overnight. The next system worth mentioning could bring
some wintry precip to the area...mainly along and south of the
West KY Parkway. At this time we could see trace amounts across
central KY averaging around a half inch along the TN border. We
could see brief mixes with sleet or freezing rain or sleet. But
should only see trace to a hundredth of ice if any falls at all.
In addition if the temps are one to two degrees warmer than
forecast we could see liquid precip which would negate snow
accumulations a great deal.


.LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Medium confidence in the extended at best due to the migration of
the next storm migrating southward from model run to model run.

The ECMWF seems to have the most stability from run to run but the
12z Tue run was slow to come in today. The gulf will open up ahead
of the next system allowing adequate moisture to flow back into
the region ahead of an upper level disturbance make its way onto
the west coast now. This upper level system does have surface
reflection as a surface low which marches across the gulf states.
This is a little far south for the most favorable path to produce
snow for this area. However as previous discussion stated we will
be on the northern portion of the precipitation shield. This
system will Friday night into Saturday according to model and
office consensus. After that high pressure will take over until
the middle of next week when the next system arrives.

As for temps...they appear to be near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

MVFR cigs will prevail this evening, whilest parent cyclone departs
Ohio Valley. Will continue to lean pessimistically with night-time
inversion and trapped lower trop moisture, meaning we will keep the
MVFR cigs in for much of the night. But by morning, the parent
cyclone should be far enough east, with the drier air working down
the column and by the planning period, scattering remaining low VFR
or MVFR cigs. High clouds may be streaming in again by the effective
end time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KH
Long Term.........KH
Aviation..........DH








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