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000
FXUS63 KLMK 140305
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1005 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1000 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

Not many changes to the forecast this evening.  Forecast
temps/dewpts overnight look pretty much on track.  Only made minor
tweaks to those.  The latest forecast data suggests we could see
some light snow around or just afternoon sunrise, but the main
accumulating snows should still hold off until the afternoon/evening
hours tomorrow.

...Initial Thoughts on 21Z SREF/0Z NAM for Snowfall...

There is still a good deal of spread amongst model QPF/Snowfall
amounts for the coming snow Sun-early Mon.  The 21Z SREF has come up
a bit on QPF amounts over north central KY with snowfall amounts
close to the same or slightly lower than previous runs. The 0Z NAM
has come up on QPF amounts over central KY but mainly for Monday
when much of the area will be mainly in the rain sector of this
system.  The 0Z NAM actually pulls the heavier snow axis down into
northern TN for Sun/Sun night.

So with model data still shifting, confidence is not high enough to
make any changes to the current winter wx advy and forecast snowfall
amounts.  Will await the latter half of 0Z models to hopefully shed
more light any trends for this forecast.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 333 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating Snow Likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

An upper wave will move overhead, bringing widespread precipitation
to the region Sunday and Sunday night. Snowfall rates will likely
start out slow in the morning, with only minor accumulations, if
any.

During the afternoon and evening hours the snow should increase as
we get under the right entrance region of the upper jet. Soundings
show high RH near the warm end of the dendritic growth zone while
temperatures and wet bulbs at the surface remain slightly below
freezing.  850-700 Fn convergence will increase significantly, with
the strongest frontogenesis and best moisture supply over Kentucky.
Mid-level lapse rates increase enough to suggest mesoscale banding
will be possible. Slightly negative EPV aloft co-located with high
RH and on the warm edge of the DGZ, with surface temperatures of 25-
30, also support heavier snow with large, wet flakes.

This all easily supports issuing an advisory, which, after
collaboration with neighboring offices, we have done. In
general,right now it looks like amounts of 1-3" north of I-64 and 2-
4" south of I-64 are reasonable. The mesoscale banding suggests that
we could see a few amounts higher than 4", primarily east of I-65
and south of the Blue Grass Parkway. However, coverage and
confidence aren`t enough for a watch yet. WPC shows the chance of
=>4" as being less than 50%. If confidence increases in warning
level snowfall, then a headline upgrade can be issued.

After the snow Sunday into Sunday evening, temperatures will begin
to rise Sunday night ahead of the next system that will move through
early in the long term. Also, Sunday night we will begin to lose
moisture aloft where temperatures are cold enough for snow
production, especially across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. While there may be some seeder-feeder assistance from a
shallow layer of higher clouds at first, it looks like glaciation
will reduce significantly overnight. So, a transition to drizzle or
light rain will be possible, beginning in the Bowling Green region
towards midnight and working its way northeastward, reaching just
shy of the Louisville and Lexington areas by daylight Monday
morning. It`s possible we may see a brief period of freezing drizzle
during the transition, but it shouldn`t have much impact as warm air
quickly brings surface temperatures and wet bulbs above freezing.

Temperature wise, we`ll have another cold one tonight as the mercury
drops into the teens. A few single digit readings will be possible
in the northern Blue Grass and the usual cold spots. Highs on Sunday
will range form the mid 20s in the Blue Grass to around the freezing
mark southwest. As mentioned previously, temperatures will climb
Sunday night, with the entire LMK CWA in the 30s for sunrise on
Monday.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

An upper shortwave trof will approach on Monday and move overhead
Monday night, while surface low pressure passes by to our south. The
light precipitation late Sunday night will get reinvigorated as we
experience strong upper divergence under the right rear quad of the
upper jet. 700-500 frontogenesis will increase significantly in
conjunction with deep moisture, especially in the afternoon and
evening over eastern Kentucky, along with strong Q-vector
convergence ahead of PVA in the base of the approaching upper trof.

Surface wet bulbs will be above freezing all day in Kentucky, and
near freezing in southern Indiana. Going with a middle-of-the-road
solution (on a very wide road) for MaxT Monday gets us into the 40s
areawide. So, it looks like the transition to liquid that began late
Sunday night will continue into Monday morning, with everyone seeing
plain rain Monday afternoon. Given instability parameters and
general synoptic set-up, mesoscale banding appears less likely
Monday than Sunday.

Sunday night incoming cold air will change the precipitation back to
light snow as it tapers off. No significant accumulations are
expected either before the transition Monday morning or after the
transition Monday night.

A clipper will then shoot through the area Tuesday
afternoon/evening. This will bring a mix of light rain and snow to
the region. Will simply use surface temperatures to determine ptype
in the grids for now.

High pressure will dominate Wednesday-Thursday with dry weather. No
Arctic cold, though, with highs Tuesday in the 40s and Wednesday in
the 50s.

A storm system will then barrel through the Great Lakes Friday and
Saturday and will bring a chance of showers to the region. Thunder
looks unlikely at this time. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s, and
in the 50s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the next 10-12 hrs with mid and
upper level clouds increasing ahead of the next weather system. Late
tonight into tomorrow morning an upper level wave will dive south
into our region and interact with a southern stream weather system.
This will cause snow to overspread the region Sunday morning with
flight conditions in light to at times moderate snow reduced to
MVFR/IFR by Sun afternoon/evening.  Will need to refine these times
as the event draws closer, but after 18Z MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will be
likely.  Winds will turn light tonight and then ESE between 6-8 kts
for Sun during the daylight hours.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday to 10 AM
     EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ028>043-045>049-053>057-
     063>067-074>078-081-082.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ023>027-061-062-070>073.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     INZ077>079-090>092.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for INZ076-083-084-089.

&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......13
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 140305
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1005 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1000 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

Not many changes to the forecast this evening.  Forecast
temps/dewpts overnight look pretty much on track.  Only made minor
tweaks to those.  The latest forecast data suggests we could see
some light snow around or just afternoon sunrise, but the main
accumulating snows should still hold off until the afternoon/evening
hours tomorrow.

...Initial Thoughts on 21Z SREF/0Z NAM for Snowfall...

There is still a good deal of spread amongst model QPF/Snowfall
amounts for the coming snow Sun-early Mon.  The 21Z SREF has come up
a bit on QPF amounts over north central KY with snowfall amounts
close to the same or slightly lower than previous runs. The 0Z NAM
has come up on QPF amounts over central KY but mainly for Monday
when much of the area will be mainly in the rain sector of this
system.  The 0Z NAM actually pulls the heavier snow axis down into
northern TN for Sun/Sun night.

So with model data still shifting, confidence is not high enough to
make any changes to the current winter wx advy and forecast snowfall
amounts.  Will await the latter half of 0Z models to hopefully shed
more light any trends for this forecast.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 333 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating Snow Likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

An upper wave will move overhead, bringing widespread precipitation
to the region Sunday and Sunday night. Snowfall rates will likely
start out slow in the morning, with only minor accumulations, if
any.

During the afternoon and evening hours the snow should increase as
we get under the right entrance region of the upper jet. Soundings
show high RH near the warm end of the dendritic growth zone while
temperatures and wet bulbs at the surface remain slightly below
freezing.  850-700 Fn convergence will increase significantly, with
the strongest frontogenesis and best moisture supply over Kentucky.
Mid-level lapse rates increase enough to suggest mesoscale banding
will be possible. Slightly negative EPV aloft co-located with high
RH and on the warm edge of the DGZ, with surface temperatures of 25-
30, also support heavier snow with large, wet flakes.

This all easily supports issuing an advisory, which, after
collaboration with neighboring offices, we have done. In
general,right now it looks like amounts of 1-3" north of I-64 and 2-
4" south of I-64 are reasonable. The mesoscale banding suggests that
we could see a few amounts higher than 4", primarily east of I-65
and south of the Blue Grass Parkway. However, coverage and
confidence aren`t enough for a watch yet. WPC shows the chance of
=>4" as being less than 50%. If confidence increases in warning
level snowfall, then a headline upgrade can be issued.

After the snow Sunday into Sunday evening, temperatures will begin
to rise Sunday night ahead of the next system that will move through
early in the long term. Also, Sunday night we will begin to lose
moisture aloft where temperatures are cold enough for snow
production, especially across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. While there may be some seeder-feeder assistance from a
shallow layer of higher clouds at first, it looks like glaciation
will reduce significantly overnight. So, a transition to drizzle or
light rain will be possible, beginning in the Bowling Green region
towards midnight and working its way northeastward, reaching just
shy of the Louisville and Lexington areas by daylight Monday
morning. It`s possible we may see a brief period of freezing drizzle
during the transition, but it shouldn`t have much impact as warm air
quickly brings surface temperatures and wet bulbs above freezing.

Temperature wise, we`ll have another cold one tonight as the mercury
drops into the teens. A few single digit readings will be possible
in the northern Blue Grass and the usual cold spots. Highs on Sunday
will range form the mid 20s in the Blue Grass to around the freezing
mark southwest. As mentioned previously, temperatures will climb
Sunday night, with the entire LMK CWA in the 30s for sunrise on
Monday.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

An upper shortwave trof will approach on Monday and move overhead
Monday night, while surface low pressure passes by to our south. The
light precipitation late Sunday night will get reinvigorated as we
experience strong upper divergence under the right rear quad of the
upper jet. 700-500 frontogenesis will increase significantly in
conjunction with deep moisture, especially in the afternoon and
evening over eastern Kentucky, along with strong Q-vector
convergence ahead of PVA in the base of the approaching upper trof.

Surface wet bulbs will be above freezing all day in Kentucky, and
near freezing in southern Indiana. Going with a middle-of-the-road
solution (on a very wide road) for MaxT Monday gets us into the 40s
areawide. So, it looks like the transition to liquid that began late
Sunday night will continue into Monday morning, with everyone seeing
plain rain Monday afternoon. Given instability parameters and
general synoptic set-up, mesoscale banding appears less likely
Monday than Sunday.

Sunday night incoming cold air will change the precipitation back to
light snow as it tapers off. No significant accumulations are
expected either before the transition Monday morning or after the
transition Monday night.

A clipper will then shoot through the area Tuesday
afternoon/evening. This will bring a mix of light rain and snow to
the region. Will simply use surface temperatures to determine ptype
in the grids for now.

High pressure will dominate Wednesday-Thursday with dry weather. No
Arctic cold, though, with highs Tuesday in the 40s and Wednesday in
the 50s.

A storm system will then barrel through the Great Lakes Friday and
Saturday and will bring a chance of showers to the region. Thunder
looks unlikely at this time. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s, and
in the 50s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the next 10-12 hrs with mid and
upper level clouds increasing ahead of the next weather system. Late
tonight into tomorrow morning an upper level wave will dive south
into our region and interact with a southern stream weather system.
This will cause snow to overspread the region Sunday morning with
flight conditions in light to at times moderate snow reduced to
MVFR/IFR by Sun afternoon/evening.  Will need to refine these times
as the event draws closer, but after 18Z MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will be
likely.  Winds will turn light tonight and then ESE between 6-8 kts
for Sun during the daylight hours.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday to 10 AM
     EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ028>043-045>049-053>057-
     063>067-074>078-081-082.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ023>027-061-062-070>073.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     INZ077>079-090>092.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for INZ076-083-084-089.

&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......13
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 132338
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
638 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 333 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating Snow Likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

An upper wave will move overhead, bringing widespread precipitation
to the region Sunday and Sunday night. Snowfall rates will likely
start out slow in the morning, with only minor accumulations, if
any.

During the afternoon and evening hours the snow should increase as
we get under the right entrance region of the upper jet. Soundings
show high RH near the warm end of the dendritic growth zone while
temperatures and wet bulbs at the surface remain slightly below
freezing.  850-700 Fn convergence will increase significantly, with
the strongest frontogenesis and best moisture supply over Kentucky.
Mid-level lapse rates increase enough to suggest mesoscale banding
will be possible. Slightly negative EPV aloft co-located with high
RH and on the warm edge of the DGZ, with surface temperatures of 25-
30, also support heavier snow with large, wet flakes.

This all easily supports issuing an advisory, which, after
collaboration with neighboring offices, we have done. In
general,right now it looks like amounts of 1-3" north of I-64 and 2-
4" south of I-64 are reasonable. The mesoscale banding suggests that
we could see a few amounts higher than 4", primarily east of I-65
and south of the Blue Grass Parkway. However, coverage and
confidence aren`t enough for a watch yet. WPC shows the chance of
=>4" as being less than 50%. If confidence increases in warning
level snowfall, then a headline upgrade can be issued.

After the snow Sunday into Sunday evening, temperatures will begin
to rise Sunday night ahead of the next system that will move through
early in the long term. Also, Sunday night we will begin to lose
moisture aloft where temperatures are cold enough for snow
production, especially across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. While there may be some seeder-feeder assistance from a
shallow layer of higher clouds at first, it looks like glaciation
will reduce significantly overnight. So, a transition to drizzle or
light rain will be possible, beginning in the Bowling Green region
towards midnight and working its way northeastward, reaching just
shy of the Louisville and Lexington areas by daylight Monday
morning. It`s possible we may see a brief period of freezing drizzle
during the transition, but it shouldn`t have much impact as warm air
quickly brings surface temperatures and wet bulbs above freezing.

Temperature wise, we`ll have another cold one tonight as the mercury
drops into the teens. A few single digit readings will be possible
in the northern Blue Grass and the usual cold spots. Highs on Sunday
will range form the mid 20s in the Blue Grass to around the freezing
mark southwest. As mentioned previously, temperatures will climb
Sunday night, with the entire LMK CWA in the 30s for sunrise on
Monday.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

An upper shortwave trof will approach on Monday and move overhead
Monday night, while surface low pressure passes by to our south. The
light precipitation late Sunday night will get reinvigorated as we
experience strong upper divergence under the right rear quad of the
upper jet. 700-500 frontogenesis will increase significantly in
conjunction with deep moisture, especially in the afternoon and
evening over eastern Kentucky, along with strong Q-vector
convergence ahead of PVA in the base of the approaching upper trof.

Surface wet bulbs will be above freezing all day in Kentucky, and
near freezing in southern Indiana. Going with a middle-of-the-road
solution (on a very wide road) for MaxT Monday gets us into the 40s
areawide. So, it looks like the transition to liquid that began late
Sunday night will continue into Monday morning, with everyone seeing
plain rain Monday afternoon. Given instability parameters and
general synoptic set-up, mesoscale banding appears less likely
Monday than Sunday.

Sunday night incoming cold air will change the precipitation back to
light snow as it tapers off. No significant accumulations are
expected either before the transition Monday morning or after the
transition Monday night.

A clipper will then shoot through the area Tuesday
afternoon/evening. This will bring a mix of light rain and snow to
the region. Will simply use surface temperatures to determine ptype
in the grids for now.

High pressure will dominate Wednesday-Thursday with dry weather. No
Arctic cold, though, with highs Tuesday in the 40s and Wednesday in
the 50s.

A storm system will then barrel through the Great Lakes Friday and
Saturday and will bring a chance of showers to the region. Thunder
looks unlikely at this time. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s, and
in the 50s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the next 10-12 hrs with mid and
upper level clouds increasing ahead of the next weather system. Late
tonight into tomorrow morning an upper level wave will dive south
into our region and interact with a southern stream weather system.
This will cause snow to overspread the region Sunday morning with
flight conditions in light to at times moderate snow reduced to
MVFR/IFR by Sun afternoon/evening.  Will need to refine these times
as the event draws closer, but after 18Z MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will be
likely.  Winds will turn light tonight and then ESE between 6-8 kts
for Sun during the daylight hours.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday to 10 AM
     EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ028>043-045>049-053>057-
     063>067-074>078-081-082.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ023>027-061-062-070>073.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     INZ077>079-090>092.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for INZ076-083-084-089.

&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 132338
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
638 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 333 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating Snow Likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

An upper wave will move overhead, bringing widespread precipitation
to the region Sunday and Sunday night. Snowfall rates will likely
start out slow in the morning, with only minor accumulations, if
any.

During the afternoon and evening hours the snow should increase as
we get under the right entrance region of the upper jet. Soundings
show high RH near the warm end of the dendritic growth zone while
temperatures and wet bulbs at the surface remain slightly below
freezing.  850-700 Fn convergence will increase significantly, with
the strongest frontogenesis and best moisture supply over Kentucky.
Mid-level lapse rates increase enough to suggest mesoscale banding
will be possible. Slightly negative EPV aloft co-located with high
RH and on the warm edge of the DGZ, with surface temperatures of 25-
30, also support heavier snow with large, wet flakes.

This all easily supports issuing an advisory, which, after
collaboration with neighboring offices, we have done. In
general,right now it looks like amounts of 1-3" north of I-64 and 2-
4" south of I-64 are reasonable. The mesoscale banding suggests that
we could see a few amounts higher than 4", primarily east of I-65
and south of the Blue Grass Parkway. However, coverage and
confidence aren`t enough for a watch yet. WPC shows the chance of
=>4" as being less than 50%. If confidence increases in warning
level snowfall, then a headline upgrade can be issued.

After the snow Sunday into Sunday evening, temperatures will begin
to rise Sunday night ahead of the next system that will move through
early in the long term. Also, Sunday night we will begin to lose
moisture aloft where temperatures are cold enough for snow
production, especially across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. While there may be some seeder-feeder assistance from a
shallow layer of higher clouds at first, it looks like glaciation
will reduce significantly overnight. So, a transition to drizzle or
light rain will be possible, beginning in the Bowling Green region
towards midnight and working its way northeastward, reaching just
shy of the Louisville and Lexington areas by daylight Monday
morning. It`s possible we may see a brief period of freezing drizzle
during the transition, but it shouldn`t have much impact as warm air
quickly brings surface temperatures and wet bulbs above freezing.

Temperature wise, we`ll have another cold one tonight as the mercury
drops into the teens. A few single digit readings will be possible
in the northern Blue Grass and the usual cold spots. Highs on Sunday
will range form the mid 20s in the Blue Grass to around the freezing
mark southwest. As mentioned previously, temperatures will climb
Sunday night, with the entire LMK CWA in the 30s for sunrise on
Monday.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

An upper shortwave trof will approach on Monday and move overhead
Monday night, while surface low pressure passes by to our south. The
light precipitation late Sunday night will get reinvigorated as we
experience strong upper divergence under the right rear quad of the
upper jet. 700-500 frontogenesis will increase significantly in
conjunction with deep moisture, especially in the afternoon and
evening over eastern Kentucky, along with strong Q-vector
convergence ahead of PVA in the base of the approaching upper trof.

Surface wet bulbs will be above freezing all day in Kentucky, and
near freezing in southern Indiana. Going with a middle-of-the-road
solution (on a very wide road) for MaxT Monday gets us into the 40s
areawide. So, it looks like the transition to liquid that began late
Sunday night will continue into Monday morning, with everyone seeing
plain rain Monday afternoon. Given instability parameters and
general synoptic set-up, mesoscale banding appears less likely
Monday than Sunday.

Sunday night incoming cold air will change the precipitation back to
light snow as it tapers off. No significant accumulations are
expected either before the transition Monday morning or after the
transition Monday night.

A clipper will then shoot through the area Tuesday
afternoon/evening. This will bring a mix of light rain and snow to
the region. Will simply use surface temperatures to determine ptype
in the grids for now.

High pressure will dominate Wednesday-Thursday with dry weather. No
Arctic cold, though, with highs Tuesday in the 40s and Wednesday in
the 50s.

A storm system will then barrel through the Great Lakes Friday and
Saturday and will bring a chance of showers to the region. Thunder
looks unlikely at this time. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s, and
in the 50s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the next 10-12 hrs with mid and
upper level clouds increasing ahead of the next weather system. Late
tonight into tomorrow morning an upper level wave will dive south
into our region and interact with a southern stream weather system.
This will cause snow to overspread the region Sunday morning with
flight conditions in light to at times moderate snow reduced to
MVFR/IFR by Sun afternoon/evening.  Will need to refine these times
as the event draws closer, but after 18Z MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will be
likely.  Winds will turn light tonight and then ESE between 6-8 kts
for Sun during the daylight hours.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday to 10 AM
     EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ028>043-045>049-053>057-
     063>067-074>078-081-082.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ023>027-061-062-070>073.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     INZ077>079-090>092.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for INZ076-083-084-089.

&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........AMS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 132338
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
638 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 333 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating Snow Likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

An upper wave will move overhead, bringing widespread precipitation
to the region Sunday and Sunday night. Snowfall rates will likely
start out slow in the morning, with only minor accumulations, if
any.

During the afternoon and evening hours the snow should increase as
we get under the right entrance region of the upper jet. Soundings
show high RH near the warm end of the dendritic growth zone while
temperatures and wet bulbs at the surface remain slightly below
freezing.  850-700 Fn convergence will increase significantly, with
the strongest frontogenesis and best moisture supply over Kentucky.
Mid-level lapse rates increase enough to suggest mesoscale banding
will be possible. Slightly negative EPV aloft co-located with high
RH and on the warm edge of the DGZ, with surface temperatures of 25-
30, also support heavier snow with large, wet flakes.

This all easily supports issuing an advisory, which, after
collaboration with neighboring offices, we have done. In
general,right now it looks like amounts of 1-3" north of I-64 and 2-
4" south of I-64 are reasonable. The mesoscale banding suggests that
we could see a few amounts higher than 4", primarily east of I-65
and south of the Blue Grass Parkway. However, coverage and
confidence aren`t enough for a watch yet. WPC shows the chance of
=>4" as being less than 50%. If confidence increases in warning
level snowfall, then a headline upgrade can be issued.

After the snow Sunday into Sunday evening, temperatures will begin
to rise Sunday night ahead of the next system that will move through
early in the long term. Also, Sunday night we will begin to lose
moisture aloft where temperatures are cold enough for snow
production, especially across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. While there may be some seeder-feeder assistance from a
shallow layer of higher clouds at first, it looks like glaciation
will reduce significantly overnight. So, a transition to drizzle or
light rain will be possible, beginning in the Bowling Green region
towards midnight and working its way northeastward, reaching just
shy of the Louisville and Lexington areas by daylight Monday
morning. It`s possible we may see a brief period of freezing drizzle
during the transition, but it shouldn`t have much impact as warm air
quickly brings surface temperatures and wet bulbs above freezing.

Temperature wise, we`ll have another cold one tonight as the mercury
drops into the teens. A few single digit readings will be possible
in the northern Blue Grass and the usual cold spots. Highs on Sunday
will range form the mid 20s in the Blue Grass to around the freezing
mark southwest. As mentioned previously, temperatures will climb
Sunday night, with the entire LMK CWA in the 30s for sunrise on
Monday.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

An upper shortwave trof will approach on Monday and move overhead
Monday night, while surface low pressure passes by to our south. The
light precipitation late Sunday night will get reinvigorated as we
experience strong upper divergence under the right rear quad of the
upper jet. 700-500 frontogenesis will increase significantly in
conjunction with deep moisture, especially in the afternoon and
evening over eastern Kentucky, along with strong Q-vector
convergence ahead of PVA in the base of the approaching upper trof.

Surface wet bulbs will be above freezing all day in Kentucky, and
near freezing in southern Indiana. Going with a middle-of-the-road
solution (on a very wide road) for MaxT Monday gets us into the 40s
areawide. So, it looks like the transition to liquid that began late
Sunday night will continue into Monday morning, with everyone seeing
plain rain Monday afternoon. Given instability parameters and
general synoptic set-up, mesoscale banding appears less likely
Monday than Sunday.

Sunday night incoming cold air will change the precipitation back to
light snow as it tapers off. No significant accumulations are
expected either before the transition Monday morning or after the
transition Monday night.

A clipper will then shoot through the area Tuesday
afternoon/evening. This will bring a mix of light rain and snow to
the region. Will simply use surface temperatures to determine ptype
in the grids for now.

High pressure will dominate Wednesday-Thursday with dry weather. No
Arctic cold, though, with highs Tuesday in the 40s and Wednesday in
the 50s.

A storm system will then barrel through the Great Lakes Friday and
Saturday and will bring a chance of showers to the region. Thunder
looks unlikely at this time. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s, and
in the 50s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the next 10-12 hrs with mid and
upper level clouds increasing ahead of the next weather system. Late
tonight into tomorrow morning an upper level wave will dive south
into our region and interact with a southern stream weather system.
This will cause snow to overspread the region Sunday morning with
flight conditions in light to at times moderate snow reduced to
MVFR/IFR by Sun afternoon/evening.  Will need to refine these times
as the event draws closer, but after 18Z MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will be
likely.  Winds will turn light tonight and then ESE between 6-8 kts
for Sun during the daylight hours.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday to 10 AM
     EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ028>043-045>049-053>057-
     063>067-074>078-081-082.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ023>027-061-062-070>073.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     INZ077>079-090>092.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for INZ076-083-084-089.

&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 132034
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
334 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 333 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating Snow Likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

An upper wave will move overhead, bringing widespread precipitation
to the region Sunday and Sunday night. Snowfall rates will likely
start out slow in the morning, with only minor accumulations, if
any.

During the afternoon and evening hours the snow should increase as
we get under the right entrance region of the upper jet. Soundings
show high RH near the warm end of the dendritic growth zone while
temperatures and wet bulbs at the surface remain slightly below
freezing.  850-700 Fn convergence will increase significantly, with
the strongest frontogenesis and best moisture supply over Kentucky.
Mid-level lapse rates increase enough to suggest mesoscale banding
will be possible. Slightly negative EPV aloft co-located with high
RH and on the warm edge of the DGZ, with surface temperatures of 25-
30, also support heavier snow with large, wet flakes.

This all easily supports issuing an advisory, which, after
collaboration with neighboring offices, we have done. In
general,right now it looks like amounts of 1-3" north of I-64 and 2-
4" south of I-64 are reasonable. The mesoscale banding suggests that
we could see a few amounts higher than 4", primarily east of I-65
and south of the Blue Grass Parkway. However, coverage and
confidence aren`t enough for a watch yet. WPC shows the chance of
=>4" as being less than 50%. If confidence increases in warning
level snowfall, then a headline upgrade can be issued.

After the snow Sunday into Sunday evening, temperatures will begin
to rise Sunday night ahead of the next system that will move through
early in the long term. Also, Sunday night we will begin to lose
moisture aloft where temperatures are cold enough for snow
production, especially across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. While there may be some seeder-feeder assistance from a
shallow layer of higher clouds at first, it looks like glaciation
will reduce significantly overnight. So, a transition to drizzle or
light rain will be possible, beginning in the Bowling Green region
towards midnight and working its way northeastward, reaching just
shy of the Louisville and Lexington areas by daylight Monday
morning. It`s possible we may see a brief period of freezing drizzle
during the transition, but it shouldn`t have much impact as warm air
quickly brings surface temperatures and wet bulbs above freezing.

Temperature wise, we`ll have another cold one tonight as the mercury
drops into the teens. A few single digit readings will be possible
in the northern Blue Grass and the usual cold spots. Highs on Sunday
will range form the mid 20s in the Blue Grass to around the freezing
mark southwest. As mentioned previously, temperatures will climb
Sunday night, with the entire LMK CWA in the 30s for sunrise on
Monday.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

An upper shortwave trof will approach on Monday and move overhead
Monday night, while surface low pressure passes by to our south. The
light precipitation late Sunday night will get reinvigorated as we
experience strong upper divergence under the right rear quad of the
upper jet. 700-500 frontogenesis will increase significantly in
conjunction with deep moisture, especially in the afternoon and
evening over eastern Kentucky, along with strong Q-vector
convergence ahead of PVA in the base of the approaching upper trof.

Surface wet bulbs will be above freezing all day in Kentucky, and
near freezing in southern Indiana. Going with a middle-of-the-road
solution (on a very wide road) for MaxT Monday gets us into the 40s
areawide. So, it looks like the transition to liquid that began late
Sunday night will continue into Monday morning, with everyone seeing
plain rain Monday afternoon. Given instability parameters and
general synoptic set-up, mesoscale banding appears less likely
Monday than Sunday.

Sunday night incoming cold air will change the precipitation back to
light snow as it tapers off. No significant accumulations are
expected either before the transition Monday morning or after the
transition Monday night.

A clipper will then shoot through the area Tuesday
afternoon/evening. This will bring a mix of light rain and snow to
the region. Will simply use surface temperatures to determine
ptype in the grids for now.

High pressure will dominate Wednesday-Thursday with dry weather. No
Arctic cold, though, with highs Tuesday in the 40s and Wednesday in
the 50s.

A storm system will then barrel through the Great Lakes Friday and
Saturday and will bring a chance of showers to the region. Thunder
looks unlikely at this time. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s, and
in the 50s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1155 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

Will remain VFR for most of the valid TAF period, with snow holding
off until after daybreak Sunday, and even then the impact will be
initially minimal.

Expect diminishing north winds this afternoon with unrestricted
ceilings. Typical warm advection regime takes hold tonight, with a
mid-level ceiling developing by late evening. Initial onset of snow
still on track for mid-morning, perhaps an hour or two faster than
previously advertised. However, we should remain VFR until after 18Z
Sunday. Look for deteriorating conditions in the planning period at
SDF as the snow picks up in intensity, with IFR ceiling and
visibility developing by mid-afternoon.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday to 10 AM
     EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ028>043-045>049-053>057-
     063>067-074>078-081-082.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ023>027-061-062-070>073.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     INZ077>079-090>092.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 AM
     EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for INZ076-083-084-089.

&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 131656
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1156 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1026 AM EST Sat Feb13 2016

It looks like the snow shower threat has decreased enough that we
can go back to a dry forecast. Radar returns have exited the CWA.
Visible satellite shows cloud streets forming over the Blue Grass,
but web cams and AMDAR soundings indicate that these clouds are very
shallow in depth. Also, surface air beneath them is very dry. So,
will go with dry weather for the rest of the day.

Updated at 801 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

A tiny snow shower recently passed right over Blue Grass Field and,
despite the shower`s diminutive nature, managed to take visibility
down to a half mile very briefly. The weather camera at Keeneland
also showed the shower passing through, and a quick call to the
observers at the airport verified what ASOS was telling us.

So, we have put some isolated snow showers into the forecast for the
next few hours for the Blue Grass. In reality, snow shower coverage
will likely be below 15% and the chance of actual measurable snow is
almost nil, but hate to have dry wx grids when we know there are
snow showers around that are able to reduce visibility that much.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 324 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating snows likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a deep trough
across the eastern CONUS.  A strong PV anomaly was diving into the
northwestern CONUS, and will be the main focus of the short term
period as it will bring accumulating snows to the region Sunday into
Sunday night.

For today, expect an Arctic airmass to become entrenched over the
Ohio Valley as a Canadian ridge slides southeast into the Midwest.
Strong subsidence due to this feature will give way to mainly clear
skies today, but temperatures will really struggle as highs only
climb into the low to mid 20s!

==========================
Sunday/Sunday Night System
Confidence: High
==========================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will dive southeast into the southern
Great Lakes region on Sunday into Sunday night.  In response, a
rather impressive warm conveyor belt will develop over portions of
the MS River and spread east into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night.  This warm air advection will ascend atop the
cold airmass in place, saturating the column from the top down.
Therefore, it will take some time to get flakes to the ground, but
think a good swath of snow will eventually move through from west to
east Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

The broad warm air advection regime should give a pretty consistent
2-4 inches across the region, with the lowest amounts likely in
southern IN.  A swath of 4+ inches is not out of the question across
portions of south-central KY (very near the track of the heaviest
snows from the big snowstorm earlier this year), where the better
overlap of QPF and enough cold air and lift within the DGZ will
coincide.

Once the main branch of the warm conveyor belt pushes into
southeastern KY, guidance does show the potential for the loss of
ice nuclei activation as saturation depth only goes up to around -4
or -5C.  This may cause some freezing drizzle to fall on top of the
snow.  Any impacts from this would likely be the same as the impacts
from the 2-4 inches of snow (slick roads), so will keep the message
simple and continue to advertise a mainly snow event.  Speaking of
message, do have fairly high confidence in Advisory level snows
across the entire region and discussed putting out a late 3rd period
Advisory. However, neighboring offices had some concerns on surface
temps, QPF amounts and saturation depth, so in coordination with
them will hold off on an Advisory for now and just issue a heads up
SPS.

Given the degree of warm air advection with this system, portions of
southern KY will likely see some rain begin to mix in towards 12Z
Monday.  This takes us into the next storm system, which is
discussed below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 356 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a PV anomaly diving into this southern Plains within a broad
trough aloft.  This regime will transition to amplified ridging over
the Ohio Valley by the end of the period, bringing a substantial
warmup (!!) to the region by the end of the period.

============================
Monday/Monday Night System
Confidence: Low-Medium
============================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will eject across the TN Valley Monday
into Monday night, helping to deepen a surface low across portions
of the mid-South, sliding northeast into the mid-Atlantic region by
Tuesday morning.

Guidance continues to remain a bit split on the track of the low and
the strength/track of a potential deformation band that is likely to
set up northwest of the main surface low.  The GFS solutions over
the past couple of days have been absolutely all over the place, so
it has largely been ignored with this forecast.  The GEM is the
southern outlier with the track, while the ECMWF remains the
furthest north.  The NAM solution is in-between with the track.
Given the consistency of the ECMWF and the bias of the GFS to be too
strong/progressive with northern stream systems (thus shunting the
surface low too far south), have favored a general ECMWF/NAM blend
with this forecast.

Given these model preferences, it does appear eastern areas of the
LMK CWA will get glanced with the northwestern edge of this system.
The main question will be what wins out, the surface warm air
advection or the cool air likely to be in place over the fresh snow
from Sunday night`s system. Think it is too early to answer this
question with any certainty as of now, thus the low-medium
confidence.  The raw NAM soundings for LEX would support all snow
through the day on Monday (although the best QPF is shown just to
the south).  However, the other guidance is considerably warmer,
with even the raw ECMWF getting surface temps into the upper 30s.
Therefore, will go with all areas transitioning to rain through the
day on Monday, before going back to snow Monday evening into Monday
night as the system deepens and draws cold air into it.  Just how
fast this occurs and how much QPF there is left to work with will
determine any snowfall amounts with the developing def band on the
backside of this system. As of now, it appears any amounts would be
generally light and mainly east of I-65 (more along I-75).  But this
system has yet to be sampled by the upper-air network, so some
adjustments (possibly major) are likely.

Yet another clipper will bring a rain/snow mix to the region on
Tuesday, but will not get too specific with that right now given the
two current systems.  After that, it appears things will dry out and
temperatures will moderate through the week.  For those getting
cabin fever, it appears 60s (!!) are likely by the end of next week!

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1155 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

Will remain VFR for most of the valid TAF period, with snow holding
off until after daybreak Sunday, and even then the impact will be
initially minimal.

Expect diminishing north winds this afternoon with unrestricted
ceilings. Typical warm advection regime takes hold tonight, with a
mid-level ceiling developing by late evening. Initial onset of snow
still on track for mid-morning, perhaps an hour or two faster than
previously advertised. However, we should remain VFR until after 18Z
Sunday. Look for deteriorating conditions in the planning period at
SDF as the snow picks up in intensity, with IFR ceiling and
visibility developing by mid-afternoon.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 131526
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1026 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1026 AM EST Sat Feb13 2016

It looks like the snow shower threat has decreased enough that we
can go back to a dry forecast. Radar returns have exited the CWA.
Visible satellite shows cloud streets forming over the Blue Grass,
but web cams and AMDAR soundings indicate that these clouds are very
shallow in depth. Also, surface air beneath them is very dry. So,
will go with dry weather for the rest of the day.

Updated at 801 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

A tiny snow shower recently passed right over Blue Grass Field and,
despite the shower`s diminutive nature, managed to take visibility
down to a half mile very briefly. The weather camera at Keeneland
also showed the shower passing through, and a quick call to the
observers at the airport verified what ASOS was telling us.

So, we have put some isolated snow showers into the forecast for the
next few hours for the Blue Grass. In reality, snow shower coverage
will likely be below 15% and the chance of actual measurable snow is
almost nil, but hate to have dry wx grids when we know there are
snow showers around that are able to reduce visibility that much.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 324 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating snows likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a deep trough
across the eastern CONUS.  A strong PV anomaly was diving into the
northwestern CONUS, and will be the main focus of the short term
period as it will bring accumulating snows to the region Sunday into
Sunday night.

For today, expect an Arctic airmass to become entrenched over the
Ohio Valley as a Canadian ridge slides southeast into the Midwest.
Strong subsidence due to this feature will give way to mainly clear
skies today, but temperatures will really struggle as highs only
climb into the low to mid 20s!

==========================
Sunday/Sunday Night System
Confidence: High
==========================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will dive southeast into the southern
Great Lakes region on Sunday into Sunday night.  In response, a
rather impressive warm conveyor belt will develop over portions of
the MS River and spread east into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night.  This warm air advection will ascend atop the
cold airmass in place, saturating the column from the top down.
Therefore, it will take some time to get flakes to the ground, but
think a good swath of snow will eventually move through from west to
east Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

The broad warm air advection regime should give a pretty consistent
2-4 inches across the region, with the lowest amounts likely in
southern IN.  A swath of 4+ inches is not out of the question across
portions of south-central KY (very near the track of the heaviest
snows from the big snowstorm earlier this year), where the better
overlap of QPF and enough cold air and lift within the DGZ will
coincide.

Once the main branch of the warm conveyor belt pushes into
southeastern KY, guidance does show the potential for the loss of
ice nuclei activation as saturation depth only goes up to around -4
or -5C.  This may cause some freezing drizzle to fall on top of the
snow.  Any impacts from this would likely be the same as the impacts
from the 2-4 inches of snow (slick roads), so will keep the message
simple and continue to advertise a mainly snow event.  Speaking of
message, do have fairly high confidence in Advisory level snows
across the entire region and discussed putting out a late 3rd period
Advisory. However, neighboring offices had some concerns on surface
temps, QPF amounts and saturation depth, so in coordination with
them will hold off on an Advisory for now and just issue a heads up
SPS.

Given the degree of warm air advection with this system, portions of
southern KY will likely see some rain begin to mix in towards 12Z
Monday.  This takes us into the next storm system, which is
discussed below.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 356 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a PV anomaly diving into this southern Plains within a broad
trough aloft.  This regime will transition to amplified ridging over
the Ohio Valley by the end of the period, bringing a substantial
warmup (!!) to the region by the end of the period.

============================
Monday/Monday Night System
Confidence: Low-Medium
============================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will eject across the TN Valley Monday
into Monday night, helping to deepen a surface low across portions
of the mid-South, sliding northeast into the mid-Atlantic region by
Tuesday morning.

Guidance continues to remain a bit split on the track of the low and
the strength/track of a potential deformation band that is likely to
set up northwest of the main surface low.  The GFS solutions over
the past couple of days have been absolutely all over the place, so
it has largely been ignored with this forecast.  The GEM is the
southern outlier with the track, while the ECMWF remains the
furthest north.  The NAM solution is in-between with the track.
Given the consistency of the ECMWF and the bias of the GFS to be too
strong/progressive with northern stream systems (thus shunting the
surface low too far south), have favored a general ECMWF/NAM blend
with this forecast.

Given these model preferences, it does appear eastern areas of the
LMK CWA will get glanced with the northwestern edge of this system.
The main question will be what wins out, the surface warm air
advection or the cool air likely to be in place over the fresh snow
from Sunday night`s system. Think it is too early to answer this
question with any certainty as of now, thus the low-medium
confidence.  The raw NAM soundings for LEX would support all snow
through the day on Monday (although the best QPF is shown just to
the south).  However, the other guidance is considerably warmer,
with even the raw ECMWF getting surface temps into the upper 30s.
Therefore, will go with all areas transitioning to rain through the
day on Monday, before going back to snow Monday evening into Monday
night as the system deepens and draws cold air into it.  Just how
fast this occurs and how much QPF there is left to work with will
determine any snowfall amounts with the developing def band on the
backside of this system. As of now, it appears any amounts would be
generally light and mainly east of I-65 (more along I-75).  But this
system has yet to be sampled by the upper-air network, so some
adjustments (possibly major) are likely.

Yet another clipper will bring a rain/snow mix to the region on
Tuesday, but will not get too specific with that right now given the
two current systems.  After that, it appears things will dry out and
temperatures will moderate through the week.  For those getting
cabin fever, it appears 60s (!!) are likely by the end of next week!

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the upcoming
TAF period.  Some scattered low clouds may affect KLEX early in the
period but are expected to mix out during the mid-morning hours.
Surface winds will remain out of the NW through the day with speeds
of 5-8kts.  Winds should shift to the north by late afternoon.
Clouds will be on the increase tonight as the next weather system
approaches from the northwest.  We expect to see snow move in from
the NW late in the TAF period and we`ll carry that in the SDF
planning period in this issuance.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 131302
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
802 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 801 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

A tiny snow shower recently passed right over Blue Grass Field and,
despite the shower`s diminutive nature, managed to take visibility
down to a half mile very briefly. The weather camera at Keeneland
also showed the shower passing through, and a quick call to the
observers at the airport verified what ASOS was telling us.

So, we have put some isolated snow showers into the forecast for the
next few hours for the Blue Grass. In reality, snow shower coverage
will likely be below 15% and the chance of actual measurable snow is
almost nil, but hate to have dry wx grids when we know there are
snow showers around that are able to reduce visibility that much.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 324 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating snows likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a deep trough
across the eastern CONUS.  A strong PV anomaly was diving into the
northwestern CONUS, and will be the main focus of the short term
period as it will bring accumulating snows to the region Sunday into
Sunday night.

For today, expect an Arctic airmass to become entrenched over the
Ohio Valley as a Canadian ridge slides southeast into the Midwest.
Strong subsidence due to this feature will give way to mainly clear
skies today, but temperatures will really struggle as highs only
climb into the low to mid 20s!

==========================
Sunday/Sunday Night System
Confidence: High
==========================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will dive southeast into the southern
Great Lakes region on Sunday into Sunday night.  In response, a
rather impressive warm conveyor belt will develop over portions of
the MS River and spread east into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night.  This warm air advection will ascend atop the
cold airmass in place, saturating the column from the top down.
Therefore, it will take some time to get flakes to the ground, but
think a good swath of snow will eventually move through from west to
east Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

The broad warm air advection regime should give a pretty consistent
2-4 inches across the region, with the lowest amounts likely in
southern IN.  A swath of 4+ inches is not out of the question across
portions of south-central KY (very near the track of the heaviest
snows from the big snowstorm earlier this year), where the better
overlap of QPF and enough cold air and lift within the DGZ will
coincide.

Once the main branch of the warm conveyor belt pushes into
southeastern KY, guidance does show the potential for the loss of
ice nuclei activation as saturation depth only goes up to around -4
or -5C.  This may cause some freezing drizzle to fall on top of the
snow.  Any impacts from this would likely be the same as the impacts
from the 2-4 inches of snow (slick roads), so will keep the message
simple and continue to advertise a mainly snow event.  Speaking of
message, do have fairly high confidence in Advisory level snows
across the entire region and discussed putting out a late 3rd period
Advisory. However, neighboring offices had some concerns on surface
temps, QPF amounts and saturation depth, so in coordination with
them will hold off on an Advisory for now and just issue a heads up
SPS.

Given the degree of warm air advection with this system, portions of
southern KY will likely see some rain begin to mix in towards 12Z
Monday.  This takes us into the next storm system, which is
discussed below.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 356 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a PV anomaly diving into this southern Plains within a broad
trough aloft.  This regime will transition to amplified ridging over
the Ohio Valley by the end of the period, bringing a substantial
warmup (!!) to the region by the end of the period.

============================
Monday/Monday Night System
Confidence: Low-Medium
============================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will eject across the TN Valley Monday
into Monday night, helping to deepen a surface low across portions
of the mid-South, sliding northeast into the mid-Atlantic region by
Tuesday morning.

Guidance continues to remain a bit split on the track of the low and
the strength/track of a potential deformation band that is likely to
set up northwest of the main surface low.  The GFS solutions over
the past couple of days have been absolutely all over the place, so
it has largely been ignored with this forecast.  The GEM is the
southern outlier with the track, while the ECMWF remains the
furthest north.  The NAM solution is in-between with the track.
Given the consistency of the ECMWF and the bias of the GFS to be too
strong/progressive with northern stream systems (thus shunting the
surface low too far south), have favored a general ECMWF/NAM blend
with this forecast.

Given these model preferences, it does appear eastern areas of the
LMK CWA will get glanced with the northwestern edge of this system.
The main question will be what wins out, the surface warm air
advection or the cool air likely to be in place over the fresh snow
from Sunday night`s system. Think it is too early to answer this
question with any certainty as of now, thus the low-medium
confidence.  The raw NAM soundings for LEX would support all snow
through the day on Monday (although the best QPF is shown just to
the south).  However, the other guidance is considerably warmer,
with even the raw ECMWF getting surface temps into the upper 30s.
Therefore, will go with all areas transitioning to rain through the
day on Monday, before going back to snow Monday evening into Monday
night as the system deepens and draws cold air into it.  Just how
fast this occurs and how much QPF there is left to work with will
determine any snowfall amounts with the developing def band on the
backside of this system. As of now, it appears any amounts would be
generally light and mainly east of I-65 (more along I-75).  But this
system has yet to be sampled by the upper-air network, so some
adjustments (possibly major) are likely.

Yet another clipper will bring a rain/snow mix to the region on
Tuesday, but will not get too specific with that right now given the
two current systems.  After that, it appears things will dry out and
temperatures will moderate through the week.  For those getting
cabin fever, it appears 60s (!!) are likely by the end of next week!

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the upcoming
TAF period.  Some scattered low clouds may affect KLEX early in the
period but are expected to mix out during the mid-morning hours.
Surface winds will remain out of the NW through the day with speeds
of 5-8kts.  Winds should shift to the north by late afternoon.
Clouds will be on the increase tonight as the next weather system
approaches from the northwest.  We expect to see snow move in from
the NW late in the TAF period and we`ll carry that in the SDF
planning period in this issuance.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 131302
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
802 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 801 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

A tiny snow shower recently passed right over Blue Grass Field and,
despite the shower`s diminutive nature, managed to take visibility
down to a half mile very briefly. The weather camera at Keeneland
also showed the shower passing through, and a quick call to the
observers at the airport verified what ASOS was telling us.

So, we have put some isolated snow showers into the forecast for the
next few hours for the Blue Grass. In reality, snow shower coverage
will likely be below 15% and the chance of actual measurable snow is
almost nil, but hate to have dry wx grids when we know there are
snow showers around that are able to reduce visibility that much.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 324 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating snows likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a deep trough
across the eastern CONUS.  A strong PV anomaly was diving into the
northwestern CONUS, and will be the main focus of the short term
period as it will bring accumulating snows to the region Sunday into
Sunday night.

For today, expect an Arctic airmass to become entrenched over the
Ohio Valley as a Canadian ridge slides southeast into the Midwest.
Strong subsidence due to this feature will give way to mainly clear
skies today, but temperatures will really struggle as highs only
climb into the low to mid 20s!

==========================
Sunday/Sunday Night System
Confidence: High
==========================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will dive southeast into the southern
Great Lakes region on Sunday into Sunday night.  In response, a
rather impressive warm conveyor belt will develop over portions of
the MS River and spread east into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night.  This warm air advection will ascend atop the
cold airmass in place, saturating the column from the top down.
Therefore, it will take some time to get flakes to the ground, but
think a good swath of snow will eventually move through from west to
east Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

The broad warm air advection regime should give a pretty consistent
2-4 inches across the region, with the lowest amounts likely in
southern IN.  A swath of 4+ inches is not out of the question across
portions of south-central KY (very near the track of the heaviest
snows from the big snowstorm earlier this year), where the better
overlap of QPF and enough cold air and lift within the DGZ will
coincide.

Once the main branch of the warm conveyor belt pushes into
southeastern KY, guidance does show the potential for the loss of
ice nuclei activation as saturation depth only goes up to around -4
or -5C.  This may cause some freezing drizzle to fall on top of the
snow.  Any impacts from this would likely be the same as the impacts
from the 2-4 inches of snow (slick roads), so will keep the message
simple and continue to advertise a mainly snow event.  Speaking of
message, do have fairly high confidence in Advisory level snows
across the entire region and discussed putting out a late 3rd period
Advisory. However, neighboring offices had some concerns on surface
temps, QPF amounts and saturation depth, so in coordination with
them will hold off on an Advisory for now and just issue a heads up
SPS.

Given the degree of warm air advection with this system, portions of
southern KY will likely see some rain begin to mix in towards 12Z
Monday.  This takes us into the next storm system, which is
discussed below.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 356 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a PV anomaly diving into this southern Plains within a broad
trough aloft.  This regime will transition to amplified ridging over
the Ohio Valley by the end of the period, bringing a substantial
warmup (!!) to the region by the end of the period.

============================
Monday/Monday Night System
Confidence: Low-Medium
============================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will eject across the TN Valley Monday
into Monday night, helping to deepen a surface low across portions
of the mid-South, sliding northeast into the mid-Atlantic region by
Tuesday morning.

Guidance continues to remain a bit split on the track of the low and
the strength/track of a potential deformation band that is likely to
set up northwest of the main surface low.  The GFS solutions over
the past couple of days have been absolutely all over the place, so
it has largely been ignored with this forecast.  The GEM is the
southern outlier with the track, while the ECMWF remains the
furthest north.  The NAM solution is in-between with the track.
Given the consistency of the ECMWF and the bias of the GFS to be too
strong/progressive with northern stream systems (thus shunting the
surface low too far south), have favored a general ECMWF/NAM blend
with this forecast.

Given these model preferences, it does appear eastern areas of the
LMK CWA will get glanced with the northwestern edge of this system.
The main question will be what wins out, the surface warm air
advection or the cool air likely to be in place over the fresh snow
from Sunday night`s system. Think it is too early to answer this
question with any certainty as of now, thus the low-medium
confidence.  The raw NAM soundings for LEX would support all snow
through the day on Monday (although the best QPF is shown just to
the south).  However, the other guidance is considerably warmer,
with even the raw ECMWF getting surface temps into the upper 30s.
Therefore, will go with all areas transitioning to rain through the
day on Monday, before going back to snow Monday evening into Monday
night as the system deepens and draws cold air into it.  Just how
fast this occurs and how much QPF there is left to work with will
determine any snowfall amounts with the developing def band on the
backside of this system. As of now, it appears any amounts would be
generally light and mainly east of I-65 (more along I-75).  But this
system has yet to be sampled by the upper-air network, so some
adjustments (possibly major) are likely.

Yet another clipper will bring a rain/snow mix to the region on
Tuesday, but will not get too specific with that right now given the
two current systems.  After that, it appears things will dry out and
temperatures will moderate through the week.  For those getting
cabin fever, it appears 60s (!!) are likely by the end of next week!

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the upcoming
TAF period.  Some scattered low clouds may affect KLEX early in the
period but are expected to mix out during the mid-morning hours.
Surface winds will remain out of the NW through the day with speeds
of 5-8kts.  Winds should shift to the north by late afternoon.
Clouds will be on the increase tonight as the next weather system
approaches from the northwest.  We expect to see snow move in from
the NW late in the TAF period and we`ll carry that in the SDF
planning period in this issuance.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 131302
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
802 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 801 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

A tiny snow shower recently passed right over Blue Grass Field and,
despite the shower`s diminutive nature, managed to take visibility
down to a half mile very briefly. The weather camera at Keeneland
also showed the shower passing through, and a quick call to the
observers at the airport verified what ASOS was telling us.

So, we have put some isolated snow showers into the forecast for the
next few hours for the Blue Grass. In reality, snow shower coverage
will likely be below 15% and the chance of actual measurable snow is
almost nil, but hate to have dry wx grids when we know there are
snow showers around that are able to reduce visibility that much.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 324 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating snows likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a deep trough
across the eastern CONUS.  A strong PV anomaly was diving into the
northwestern CONUS, and will be the main focus of the short term
period as it will bring accumulating snows to the region Sunday into
Sunday night.

For today, expect an Arctic airmass to become entrenched over the
Ohio Valley as a Canadian ridge slides southeast into the Midwest.
Strong subsidence due to this feature will give way to mainly clear
skies today, but temperatures will really struggle as highs only
climb into the low to mid 20s!

==========================
Sunday/Sunday Night System
Confidence: High
==========================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will dive southeast into the southern
Great Lakes region on Sunday into Sunday night.  In response, a
rather impressive warm conveyor belt will develop over portions of
the MS River and spread east into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night.  This warm air advection will ascend atop the
cold airmass in place, saturating the column from the top down.
Therefore, it will take some time to get flakes to the ground, but
think a good swath of snow will eventually move through from west to
east Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

The broad warm air advection regime should give a pretty consistent
2-4 inches across the region, with the lowest amounts likely in
southern IN.  A swath of 4+ inches is not out of the question across
portions of south-central KY (very near the track of the heaviest
snows from the big snowstorm earlier this year), where the better
overlap of QPF and enough cold air and lift within the DGZ will
coincide.

Once the main branch of the warm conveyor belt pushes into
southeastern KY, guidance does show the potential for the loss of
ice nuclei activation as saturation depth only goes up to around -4
or -5C.  This may cause some freezing drizzle to fall on top of the
snow.  Any impacts from this would likely be the same as the impacts
from the 2-4 inches of snow (slick roads), so will keep the message
simple and continue to advertise a mainly snow event.  Speaking of
message, do have fairly high confidence in Advisory level snows
across the entire region and discussed putting out a late 3rd period
Advisory. However, neighboring offices had some concerns on surface
temps, QPF amounts and saturation depth, so in coordination with
them will hold off on an Advisory for now and just issue a heads up
SPS.

Given the degree of warm air advection with this system, portions of
southern KY will likely see some rain begin to mix in towards 12Z
Monday.  This takes us into the next storm system, which is
discussed below.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 356 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a PV anomaly diving into this southern Plains within a broad
trough aloft.  This regime will transition to amplified ridging over
the Ohio Valley by the end of the period, bringing a substantial
warmup (!!) to the region by the end of the period.

============================
Monday/Monday Night System
Confidence: Low-Medium
============================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will eject across the TN Valley Monday
into Monday night, helping to deepen a surface low across portions
of the mid-South, sliding northeast into the mid-Atlantic region by
Tuesday morning.

Guidance continues to remain a bit split on the track of the low and
the strength/track of a potential deformation band that is likely to
set up northwest of the main surface low.  The GFS solutions over
the past couple of days have been absolutely all over the place, so
it has largely been ignored with this forecast.  The GEM is the
southern outlier with the track, while the ECMWF remains the
furthest north.  The NAM solution is in-between with the track.
Given the consistency of the ECMWF and the bias of the GFS to be too
strong/progressive with northern stream systems (thus shunting the
surface low too far south), have favored a general ECMWF/NAM blend
with this forecast.

Given these model preferences, it does appear eastern areas of the
LMK CWA will get glanced with the northwestern edge of this system.
The main question will be what wins out, the surface warm air
advection or the cool air likely to be in place over the fresh snow
from Sunday night`s system. Think it is too early to answer this
question with any certainty as of now, thus the low-medium
confidence.  The raw NAM soundings for LEX would support all snow
through the day on Monday (although the best QPF is shown just to
the south).  However, the other guidance is considerably warmer,
with even the raw ECMWF getting surface temps into the upper 30s.
Therefore, will go with all areas transitioning to rain through the
day on Monday, before going back to snow Monday evening into Monday
night as the system deepens and draws cold air into it.  Just how
fast this occurs and how much QPF there is left to work with will
determine any snowfall amounts with the developing def band on the
backside of this system. As of now, it appears any amounts would be
generally light and mainly east of I-65 (more along I-75).  But this
system has yet to be sampled by the upper-air network, so some
adjustments (possibly major) are likely.

Yet another clipper will bring a rain/snow mix to the region on
Tuesday, but will not get too specific with that right now given the
two current systems.  After that, it appears things will dry out and
temperatures will moderate through the week.  For those getting
cabin fever, it appears 60s (!!) are likely by the end of next week!

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the upcoming
TAF period.  Some scattered low clouds may affect KLEX early in the
period but are expected to mix out during the mid-morning hours.
Surface winds will remain out of the NW through the day with speeds
of 5-8kts.  Winds should shift to the north by late afternoon.
Clouds will be on the increase tonight as the next weather system
approaches from the northwest.  We expect to see snow move in from
the NW late in the TAF period and we`ll carry that in the SDF
planning period in this issuance.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 131124
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
624 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 324 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating snows likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a deep trough
across the eastern CONUS.  A strong PV anomaly was diving into the
northwestern CONUS, and will be the main focus of the short term
period as it will bring accumulating snows to the region Sunday into
Sunday night.

For today, expect an Arctic airmass to become entrenched over the
Ohio Valley as a Canadian ridge slides southeast into the Midwest.
Strong subsidence due to this feature will give way to mainly clear
skies today, but temperatures will really struggle as highs only
climb into the low to mid 20s!

==========================
Sunday/Sunday Night System
Confidence: High
==========================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will dive southeast into the southern
Great Lakes region on Sunday into Sunday night.  In response, a
rather impressive warm conveyor belt will develop over portions of
the MS River and spread east into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night.  This warm air advection will ascend atop the
cold airmass in place, saturating the column from the top down.
Therefore, it will take some time to get flakes to the ground, but
think a good swath of snow will eventually move through from west to
east Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

The broad warm air advection regime should give a pretty consistent
2-4 inches across the region, with the lowest amounts likely in
southern IN.  A swath of 4+ inches is not out of the question across
portions of south-central KY (very near the track of the heaviest
snows from the big snowstorm earlier this year), where the better
overlap of QPF and enough cold air and lift within the DGZ will
coincide.

Once the main branch of the warm conveyor belt pushes into
southeastern KY, guidance does show the potential for the loss of
ice nuclei activation as saturation depth only goes up to around -4
or -5C.  This may cause some freezing drizzle to fall on top of the
snow.  Any impacts from this would likely be the same as the impacts
from the 2-4 inches of snow (slick roads), so will keep the message
simple and continue to advertise a mainly snow event.  Speaking of
message, do have fairly high confidence in Advisory level snows
across the entire region and discussed putting out a late 3rd period
Advisory. However, neighboring offices had some concerns on surface
temps, QPF amounts and saturation depth, so in coordination with
them will hold off on an Advisory for now and just issue a heads up
SPS.

Given the degree of warm air advection with this system, portions of
southern KY will likely see some rain begin to mix in towards 12Z
Monday.  This takes us into the next storm system, which is
discussed below.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 356 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a PV anomaly diving into this southern Plains within a broad
trough aloft.  This regime will transition to amplified ridging over
the Ohio Valley by the end of the period, bringing a substantial
warmup (!!) to the region by the end of the period.

============================
Monday/Monday Night System
Confidence: Low-Medium
============================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will eject across the TN Valley Monday
into Monday night, helping to deepen a surface low across portions
of the mid-South, sliding northeast into the mid-Atlantic region by
Tuesday morning.

Guidance continues to remain a bit split on the track of the low and
the strength/track of a potential deformation band that is likely to
set up northwest of the main surface low.  The GFS solutions over
the past couple of days have been absolutely all over the place, so
it has largely been ignored with this forecast.  The GEM is the
southern outlier with the track, while the ECMWF remains the
furthest north.  The NAM solution is in-between with the track.
Given the consistency of the ECMWF and the bias of the GFS to be too
strong/progressive with northern stream systems (thus shunting the
surface low too far south), have favored a general ECMWF/NAM blend
with this forecast.

Given these model preferences, it does appear eastern areas of the
LMK CWA will get glanced with the northwestern edge of this system.
The main question will be what wins out, the surface warm air
advection or the cool air likely to be in place over the fresh snow
from Sunday night`s system. Think it is too early to answer this
question with any certainty as of now, thus the low-medium
confidence.  The raw NAM soundings for LEX would support all snow
through the day on Monday (although the best QPF is shown just to
the south).  However, the other guidance is considerably warmer,
with even the raw ECMWF getting surface temps into the upper 30s.
Therefore, will go with all areas transitioning to rain through the
day on Monday, before going back to snow Monday evening into Monday
night as the system deepens and draws cold air into it.  Just how
fast this occurs and how much QPF there is left to work with will
determine any snowfall amounts with the developing def band on the
backside of this system. As of now, it appears any amounts would be
generally light and mainly east of I-65 (more along I-75).  But this
system has yet to be sampled by the upper-air network, so some
adjustments (possibly major) are likely.

Yet another clipper will bring a rain/snow mix to the region on
Tuesday, but will not get too specific with that right now given the
two current systems.  After that, it appears things will dry out and
temperatures will moderate through the week.  For those getting
cabin fever, it appears 60s (!!) are likely by the end of next week!

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the upcoming
TAF period.  Some scattered low clouds may affect KLEX early in the
period but are expected to mix out during the mid-morning hours.
Surface winds will remain out of the NW through the day with speeds
of 5-8kts.  Winds should shift to the north by late afternoon.
Clouds will be on the increase tonight as the next weather system
approaches from the northwest.  We expect to see snow move in from
the NW late in the TAF period and we`ll carry that in the SDF
planning period in this issuance.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 131124
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
624 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 324 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating snows likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a deep trough
across the eastern CONUS.  A strong PV anomaly was diving into the
northwestern CONUS, and will be the main focus of the short term
period as it will bring accumulating snows to the region Sunday into
Sunday night.

For today, expect an Arctic airmass to become entrenched over the
Ohio Valley as a Canadian ridge slides southeast into the Midwest.
Strong subsidence due to this feature will give way to mainly clear
skies today, but temperatures will really struggle as highs only
climb into the low to mid 20s!

==========================
Sunday/Sunday Night System
Confidence: High
==========================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will dive southeast into the southern
Great Lakes region on Sunday into Sunday night.  In response, a
rather impressive warm conveyor belt will develop over portions of
the MS River and spread east into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night.  This warm air advection will ascend atop the
cold airmass in place, saturating the column from the top down.
Therefore, it will take some time to get flakes to the ground, but
think a good swath of snow will eventually move through from west to
east Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

The broad warm air advection regime should give a pretty consistent
2-4 inches across the region, with the lowest amounts likely in
southern IN.  A swath of 4+ inches is not out of the question across
portions of south-central KY (very near the track of the heaviest
snows from the big snowstorm earlier this year), where the better
overlap of QPF and enough cold air and lift within the DGZ will
coincide.

Once the main branch of the warm conveyor belt pushes into
southeastern KY, guidance does show the potential for the loss of
ice nuclei activation as saturation depth only goes up to around -4
or -5C.  This may cause some freezing drizzle to fall on top of the
snow.  Any impacts from this would likely be the same as the impacts
from the 2-4 inches of snow (slick roads), so will keep the message
simple and continue to advertise a mainly snow event.  Speaking of
message, do have fairly high confidence in Advisory level snows
across the entire region and discussed putting out a late 3rd period
Advisory. However, neighboring offices had some concerns on surface
temps, QPF amounts and saturation depth, so in coordination with
them will hold off on an Advisory for now and just issue a heads up
SPS.

Given the degree of warm air advection with this system, portions of
southern KY will likely see some rain begin to mix in towards 12Z
Monday.  This takes us into the next storm system, which is
discussed below.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 356 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a PV anomaly diving into this southern Plains within a broad
trough aloft.  This regime will transition to amplified ridging over
the Ohio Valley by the end of the period, bringing a substantial
warmup (!!) to the region by the end of the period.

============================
Monday/Monday Night System
Confidence: Low-Medium
============================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will eject across the TN Valley Monday
into Monday night, helping to deepen a surface low across portions
of the mid-South, sliding northeast into the mid-Atlantic region by
Tuesday morning.

Guidance continues to remain a bit split on the track of the low and
the strength/track of a potential deformation band that is likely to
set up northwest of the main surface low.  The GFS solutions over
the past couple of days have been absolutely all over the place, so
it has largely been ignored with this forecast.  The GEM is the
southern outlier with the track, while the ECMWF remains the
furthest north.  The NAM solution is in-between with the track.
Given the consistency of the ECMWF and the bias of the GFS to be too
strong/progressive with northern stream systems (thus shunting the
surface low too far south), have favored a general ECMWF/NAM blend
with this forecast.

Given these model preferences, it does appear eastern areas of the
LMK CWA will get glanced with the northwestern edge of this system.
The main question will be what wins out, the surface warm air
advection or the cool air likely to be in place over the fresh snow
from Sunday night`s system. Think it is too early to answer this
question with any certainty as of now, thus the low-medium
confidence.  The raw NAM soundings for LEX would support all snow
through the day on Monday (although the best QPF is shown just to
the south).  However, the other guidance is considerably warmer,
with even the raw ECMWF getting surface temps into the upper 30s.
Therefore, will go with all areas transitioning to rain through the
day on Monday, before going back to snow Monday evening into Monday
night as the system deepens and draws cold air into it.  Just how
fast this occurs and how much QPF there is left to work with will
determine any snowfall amounts with the developing def band on the
backside of this system. As of now, it appears any amounts would be
generally light and mainly east of I-65 (more along I-75).  But this
system has yet to be sampled by the upper-air network, so some
adjustments (possibly major) are likely.

Yet another clipper will bring a rain/snow mix to the region on
Tuesday, but will not get too specific with that right now given the
two current systems.  After that, it appears things will dry out and
temperatures will moderate through the week.  For those getting
cabin fever, it appears 60s (!!) are likely by the end of next week!

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the upcoming
TAF period.  Some scattered low clouds may affect KLEX early in the
period but are expected to mix out during the mid-morning hours.
Surface winds will remain out of the NW through the day with speeds
of 5-8kts.  Winds should shift to the north by late afternoon.
Clouds will be on the increase tonight as the next weather system
approaches from the northwest.  We expect to see snow move in from
the NW late in the TAF period and we`ll carry that in the SDF
planning period in this issuance.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 131124
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
624 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 324 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating snows likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a deep trough
across the eastern CONUS.  A strong PV anomaly was diving into the
northwestern CONUS, and will be the main focus of the short term
period as it will bring accumulating snows to the region Sunday into
Sunday night.

For today, expect an Arctic airmass to become entrenched over the
Ohio Valley as a Canadian ridge slides southeast into the Midwest.
Strong subsidence due to this feature will give way to mainly clear
skies today, but temperatures will really struggle as highs only
climb into the low to mid 20s!

==========================
Sunday/Sunday Night System
Confidence: High
==========================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will dive southeast into the southern
Great Lakes region on Sunday into Sunday night.  In response, a
rather impressive warm conveyor belt will develop over portions of
the MS River and spread east into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night.  This warm air advection will ascend atop the
cold airmass in place, saturating the column from the top down.
Therefore, it will take some time to get flakes to the ground, but
think a good swath of snow will eventually move through from west to
east Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

The broad warm air advection regime should give a pretty consistent
2-4 inches across the region, with the lowest amounts likely in
southern IN.  A swath of 4+ inches is not out of the question across
portions of south-central KY (very near the track of the heaviest
snows from the big snowstorm earlier this year), where the better
overlap of QPF and enough cold air and lift within the DGZ will
coincide.

Once the main branch of the warm conveyor belt pushes into
southeastern KY, guidance does show the potential for the loss of
ice nuclei activation as saturation depth only goes up to around -4
or -5C.  This may cause some freezing drizzle to fall on top of the
snow.  Any impacts from this would likely be the same as the impacts
from the 2-4 inches of snow (slick roads), so will keep the message
simple and continue to advertise a mainly snow event.  Speaking of
message, do have fairly high confidence in Advisory level snows
across the entire region and discussed putting out a late 3rd period
Advisory. However, neighboring offices had some concerns on surface
temps, QPF amounts and saturation depth, so in coordination with
them will hold off on an Advisory for now and just issue a heads up
SPS.

Given the degree of warm air advection with this system, portions of
southern KY will likely see some rain begin to mix in towards 12Z
Monday.  This takes us into the next storm system, which is
discussed below.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 356 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a PV anomaly diving into this southern Plains within a broad
trough aloft.  This regime will transition to amplified ridging over
the Ohio Valley by the end of the period, bringing a substantial
warmup (!!) to the region by the end of the period.

============================
Monday/Monday Night System
Confidence: Low-Medium
============================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will eject across the TN Valley Monday
into Monday night, helping to deepen a surface low across portions
of the mid-South, sliding northeast into the mid-Atlantic region by
Tuesday morning.

Guidance continues to remain a bit split on the track of the low and
the strength/track of a potential deformation band that is likely to
set up northwest of the main surface low.  The GFS solutions over
the past couple of days have been absolutely all over the place, so
it has largely been ignored with this forecast.  The GEM is the
southern outlier with the track, while the ECMWF remains the
furthest north.  The NAM solution is in-between with the track.
Given the consistency of the ECMWF and the bias of the GFS to be too
strong/progressive with northern stream systems (thus shunting the
surface low too far south), have favored a general ECMWF/NAM blend
with this forecast.

Given these model preferences, it does appear eastern areas of the
LMK CWA will get glanced with the northwestern edge of this system.
The main question will be what wins out, the surface warm air
advection or the cool air likely to be in place over the fresh snow
from Sunday night`s system. Think it is too early to answer this
question with any certainty as of now, thus the low-medium
confidence.  The raw NAM soundings for LEX would support all snow
through the day on Monday (although the best QPF is shown just to
the south).  However, the other guidance is considerably warmer,
with even the raw ECMWF getting surface temps into the upper 30s.
Therefore, will go with all areas transitioning to rain through the
day on Monday, before going back to snow Monday evening into Monday
night as the system deepens and draws cold air into it.  Just how
fast this occurs and how much QPF there is left to work with will
determine any snowfall amounts with the developing def band on the
backside of this system. As of now, it appears any amounts would be
generally light and mainly east of I-65 (more along I-75).  But this
system has yet to be sampled by the upper-air network, so some
adjustments (possibly major) are likely.

Yet another clipper will bring a rain/snow mix to the region on
Tuesday, but will not get too specific with that right now given the
two current systems.  After that, it appears things will dry out and
temperatures will moderate through the week.  For those getting
cabin fever, it appears 60s (!!) are likely by the end of next week!

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the upcoming
TAF period.  Some scattered low clouds may affect KLEX early in the
period but are expected to mix out during the mid-morning hours.
Surface winds will remain out of the NW through the day with speeds
of 5-8kts.  Winds should shift to the north by late afternoon.
Clouds will be on the increase tonight as the next weather system
approaches from the northwest.  We expect to see snow move in from
the NW late in the TAF period and we`ll carry that in the SDF
planning period in this issuance.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 130900
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
400 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
Issued at 324 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

...Accumulating snows likely Sunday into Sunday Night...

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a deep trough
across the eastern CONUS.  A strong PV anomaly was diving into the
northwestern CONUS, and will be the main focus of the short term
period as it will bring accumulating snows to the region Sunday into
Sunday night.

For today, expect an Arctic airmass to become entrenched over the
Ohio Valley as a Canadian ridge slides southeast into the Midwest.
Strong subsidence due to this feature will give way to mainly clear
skies today, but temperatures will really struggle as highs only
climb into the low to mid 20s!

==========================
Sunday/Sunday Night System
Confidence: High
==========================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will dive southeast into the southern
Great Lakes region on Sunday into Sunday night.  In response, a
rather impressive warm conveyor belt will develop over portions of
the MS River and spread east into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night.  This warm air advection will ascend atop the
cold airmass in place, saturating the column from the top down.
Therefore, it will take some time to get flakes to the ground, but
think a good swath of snow will eventually move through from west to
east Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

The broad warm air advection regime should give a pretty consistent
2-4 inches across the region, with the lowest amounts likely in
southern IN.  A swath of 4+ inches is not out of the question across
portions of south-central KY (very near the track of the heaviest
snows from the big snowstorm earlier this year), where the better
overlap of QPF and enough cold air and lift within the DGZ will
coincide.

Once the main branch of the warm conveyor belt pushes into
southeastern KY, guidance does show the potential for the loss of
ice nuclei activation as saturation depth only goes up to around -4
or -5C.  This may cause some freezing drizzle to fall on top of the
snow.  Any impacts from this would likely be the same as the impacts
from the 2-4 inches of snow (slick roads), so will keep the message
simple and continue to advertise a mainly snow event.  Speaking of
message, do have fairly high confidence in Advisory level snows
across the entire region and discussed putting out a late 3rd period
Advisory. However, neighboring offices had some concerns on surface
temps, QPF amounts and saturation depth, so in coordination with
them will hold off on an Advisory for now and just issue a heads up
SPS.

Given the degree of warm air advection with this system, portions of
southern KY will likely see some rain begin to mix in towards 12Z
Monday.  This takes us into the next storm system, which is
discussed below.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Issued at 356 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a PV anomaly diving into this southern Plains within a broad
trough aloft.  This regime will transition to amplified ridging over
the Ohio Valley by the end of the period, bringing a substantial
warmup (!!) to the region by the end of the period.

============================
Monday/Monday Night System
Confidence: Low-Medium
============================

The aforementioned PV anomaly will eject across the TN Valley Monday
into Monday night, helping to deepen a surface low across portions
of the mid-South, sliding northeast into the mid-Atlantic region by
Tuesday morning.

Guidance continues to remain a bit split on the track of the low and
the strength/track of a potential deformation band that is likely to
set up northwest of the main surface low.  The GFS solutions over
the past couple of days have been absolutely all over the place, so
it has largely been ignored with this forecast.  The GEM is the
southern outlier with the track, while the ECMWF remains the
furthest north.  The NAM solution is in-between with the track.
Given the consistency of the ECMWF and the bias of the GFS to be too
strong/progressive with northern stream systems (thus shunting the
surface low too far south), have favored a general ECMWF/NAM blend
with this forecast.

Given these model preferences, it does appear eastern areas of the
LMK CWA will get glanced with the northwestern edge of this system.
The main question will be what wins out, the surface warm air
advection or the cool air likely to be in place over the fresh snow
from Sunday night`s system. Think it is too early to answer this
question with any certainty as of now, thus the low-medium
confidence.  The raw NAM soundings for LEX would support all snow
through the day on Monday (although the best QPF is shown just to
the south).  However, the other guidance is considerably warmer,
with even the raw ECMWF getting surface temps into the upper 30s.
Therefore, will go with all areas transitioning to rain through the
day on Monday, before going back to snow Monday evening into Monday
night as the system deepens and draws cold air into it.  Just how
fast this occurs and how much QPF there is left to work with will
determine any snowfall amounts with the developing def band on the
backside of this system. As of now, it appears any amounts would be
generally light and mainly east of I-65 (more along I-75).  But this
system has yet to be sampled by the upper-air network, so some
adjustments (possibly major) are likely.

Yet another clipper will bring a rain/snow mix to the region on
Tuesday, but will not get too specific with that right now given the
two current systems.  After that, it appears things will dry out and
temperatures will moderate through the week.  For those getting
cabin fever, it appears 60s (!!) are likely by the end of next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

Polar frontal boundary continues to push southeastward through the
region.  This feature combined with weak upper level disturbance
will continue to produce scattered snow showers and flurries for the
next few hours.  KSDF and KLEX will see the best chances for snow
showers over the first part of the TAF period.  However, with the
upper air feature moving out and drier air moving in aloft, this
should effectively shut off the snow showers after 13/07-09Z.  Gusty
NW winds will continue at the terminals for the next several hours
until the pressure gradient relaxes later this morning.  Ceilings
and visibilities are expected to remain at VFR or above, though KLEX
could see a brief drop to MVFR between 13/06-08Z with the passing
snow showers.

The outlook for the daylight hours looks good as VFR conditions are
expected at all three terminals with northwest winds of 6-8kts.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 130501
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1201 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 820 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Scattered snow showers are moving across southern IN and north
central KY this evening along and ahead of the cold front. Most of
this activity is fairly light, but visibilities could be reduced
somewhat in a few of the more moderate showers. Added in low pops
across the northern half of the region this evening to account for
the showers. These are not expected to produce much, if any,
accumulation. Temperatures have been holding fairly steady this
evening, but colder temperatures are right on the doorstep and will
build in quickly once the do start moving in.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

One more wave droping down over Indiana this hour may enhance the
chances for isolated snow showers over our Bluegrass region late
this afternoon and evening, but with it coming at a time when the
deepest moisture has departed the region not expecting much more
than another tenth or two of an inch of snow out of these showers.
After that we should stay dry until right at the end of the short
term, 12Z Sunday, as gentle isentropic lift helps to start
generating some light snows over our western counties.

With enhanced northwest winds this afternoon and evening expect
colder air to filter into the region. Wind chills Saturday morning
should drop to around 0 as lows drop generally into the lower teens.
Northwest winds will weaken a little during the day Saturday, but
even with some sun during the day, expect highs only to reach the
lower 20s, perhaps not out of the teens along and north of the I-64
corridor. Saturday night, expect the surface high behind this cold
air mass to be shifting by to our north and, given this proximity,
winds should be mostly calm through the night. Cloud cover in
advance of the lift later that night will be the determining factor
in just how cold it gets. For now have gone with the lowest readings
in our northeast, ahead of the clouds.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...Advisory-level Snow Forecast for Sunday...
...Still Some Potential for a Winter Storm Monday Through Tuesday...

That isentropic lift gradually should strengthen across our region
through the day Sunday. Combined with increasing moisture as well,
as the flow aloft becomes more zonal and surface flow switches
around to southerly, we should see snow rates pick up as the day
goes along. Some enhancement should come too from a shortwave moving
across the Midwest during the afternoon. All that said am going with
snow totals Sunday through Sunday night of 2 to 4 inches. There is
pretty good confidence in this solution, given model trends and
convergence towards this thinking.

Confidence in a winter storm for Monday is lowering. 12Z model
guidance continues the trend of throwing the worst of this storm
just south of our region. Ensemble spreads in the SLP and flow aloft
are very high, indicative of plenty of model disparity.
Deterministic models are a little more unified then the GEFS/SREF
counterparts though. The latter group indicate surface flow more
from the south/southeast with flow above the surface also getting
more of a southerly component. We should stay below freezing through
Sunday night, but may start to creep some above freezing temps along
the KY/TN border around daybreak. GFS soundings show we may briefly
lose ice crystals aloft around daybreak as well, so we could just
have more of a changeover from snow to drizzle, with little in the
way of mixed precip...but still to early to rule that out just yet.

As the day continues Monday, most of the model guidance keep our
region under light precip, but the Euro continues to have a sharper
deformation band close to the Ohio River Monday afternoon and
evening. It is in the correct location ahead of the upper trough for
that time period, just not sure why the other models are not picking
up on this band yet. Have not gone with this solution yet, given the
wealth of other models not calling for the band, but something to
watch for.

Kept most of the model blend going from mid week on, as already have
a lot to look at in the short and mid term. GFS/Euro/GEM all show a
clipper middle of the week, but all differ on timing. Given warmer
temperatures, timing during the day would be more rain, whereas at
night it would be snow. Beyond that though the trend is for warmer
weather by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

Polar frontal boundary continues to push southeastward through the
region.  This feature combined with weak upper level disturbance
will continue to produce scattered snow showers and flurries for the
next few hours.  KSDF and KLEX will see the best chances for snow
showers over the first part of the TAF period.  However, with the
upper air feature moving out and drier air moving in aloft, this
should effectively shut off the snow showers after 13/07-09Z.  Gusty
NW winds will continue at the terminals for the next several hours
until the pressure gradient relaxes later this morning.  Ceilings
and visibilities are expected to remain at VFR or above, though KLEX
could see a brief drop to MVFR between 13/06-08Z with the passing
snow showers.

The outlook for the daylight hours looks good as VFR conditions are
expected at all three terminals with northwest winds of 6-8kts.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 130501
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1201 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 820 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Scattered snow showers are moving across southern IN and north
central KY this evening along and ahead of the cold front. Most of
this activity is fairly light, but visibilities could be reduced
somewhat in a few of the more moderate showers. Added in low pops
across the northern half of the region this evening to account for
the showers. These are not expected to produce much, if any,
accumulation. Temperatures have been holding fairly steady this
evening, but colder temperatures are right on the doorstep and will
build in quickly once the do start moving in.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

One more wave droping down over Indiana this hour may enhance the
chances for isolated snow showers over our Bluegrass region late
this afternoon and evening, but with it coming at a time when the
deepest moisture has departed the region not expecting much more
than another tenth or two of an inch of snow out of these showers.
After that we should stay dry until right at the end of the short
term, 12Z Sunday, as gentle isentropic lift helps to start
generating some light snows over our western counties.

With enhanced northwest winds this afternoon and evening expect
colder air to filter into the region. Wind chills Saturday morning
should drop to around 0 as lows drop generally into the lower teens.
Northwest winds will weaken a little during the day Saturday, but
even with some sun during the day, expect highs only to reach the
lower 20s, perhaps not out of the teens along and north of the I-64
corridor. Saturday night, expect the surface high behind this cold
air mass to be shifting by to our north and, given this proximity,
winds should be mostly calm through the night. Cloud cover in
advance of the lift later that night will be the determining factor
in just how cold it gets. For now have gone with the lowest readings
in our northeast, ahead of the clouds.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...Advisory-level Snow Forecast for Sunday...
...Still Some Potential for a Winter Storm Monday Through Tuesday...

That isentropic lift gradually should strengthen across our region
through the day Sunday. Combined with increasing moisture as well,
as the flow aloft becomes more zonal and surface flow switches
around to southerly, we should see snow rates pick up as the day
goes along. Some enhancement should come too from a shortwave moving
across the Midwest during the afternoon. All that said am going with
snow totals Sunday through Sunday night of 2 to 4 inches. There is
pretty good confidence in this solution, given model trends and
convergence towards this thinking.

Confidence in a winter storm for Monday is lowering. 12Z model
guidance continues the trend of throwing the worst of this storm
just south of our region. Ensemble spreads in the SLP and flow aloft
are very high, indicative of plenty of model disparity.
Deterministic models are a little more unified then the GEFS/SREF
counterparts though. The latter group indicate surface flow more
from the south/southeast with flow above the surface also getting
more of a southerly component. We should stay below freezing through
Sunday night, but may start to creep some above freezing temps along
the KY/TN border around daybreak. GFS soundings show we may briefly
lose ice crystals aloft around daybreak as well, so we could just
have more of a changeover from snow to drizzle, with little in the
way of mixed precip...but still to early to rule that out just yet.

As the day continues Monday, most of the model guidance keep our
region under light precip, but the Euro continues to have a sharper
deformation band close to the Ohio River Monday afternoon and
evening. It is in the correct location ahead of the upper trough for
that time period, just not sure why the other models are not picking
up on this band yet. Have not gone with this solution yet, given the
wealth of other models not calling for the band, but something to
watch for.

Kept most of the model blend going from mid week on, as already have
a lot to look at in the short and mid term. GFS/Euro/GEM all show a
clipper middle of the week, but all differ on timing. Given warmer
temperatures, timing during the day would be more rain, whereas at
night it would be snow. Beyond that though the trend is for warmer
weather by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

Polar frontal boundary continues to push southeastward through the
region.  This feature combined with weak upper level disturbance
will continue to produce scattered snow showers and flurries for the
next few hours.  KSDF and KLEX will see the best chances for snow
showers over the first part of the TAF period.  However, with the
upper air feature moving out and drier air moving in aloft, this
should effectively shut off the snow showers after 13/07-09Z.  Gusty
NW winds will continue at the terminals for the next several hours
until the pressure gradient relaxes later this morning.  Ceilings
and visibilities are expected to remain at VFR or above, though KLEX
could see a brief drop to MVFR between 13/06-08Z with the passing
snow showers.

The outlook for the daylight hours looks good as VFR conditions are
expected at all three terminals with northwest winds of 6-8kts.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 130501
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1201 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 820 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Scattered snow showers are moving across southern IN and north
central KY this evening along and ahead of the cold front. Most of
this activity is fairly light, but visibilities could be reduced
somewhat in a few of the more moderate showers. Added in low pops
across the northern half of the region this evening to account for
the showers. These are not expected to produce much, if any,
accumulation. Temperatures have been holding fairly steady this
evening, but colder temperatures are right on the doorstep and will
build in quickly once the do start moving in.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

One more wave droping down over Indiana this hour may enhance the
chances for isolated snow showers over our Bluegrass region late
this afternoon and evening, but with it coming at a time when the
deepest moisture has departed the region not expecting much more
than another tenth or two of an inch of snow out of these showers.
After that we should stay dry until right at the end of the short
term, 12Z Sunday, as gentle isentropic lift helps to start
generating some light snows over our western counties.

With enhanced northwest winds this afternoon and evening expect
colder air to filter into the region. Wind chills Saturday morning
should drop to around 0 as lows drop generally into the lower teens.
Northwest winds will weaken a little during the day Saturday, but
even with some sun during the day, expect highs only to reach the
lower 20s, perhaps not out of the teens along and north of the I-64
corridor. Saturday night, expect the surface high behind this cold
air mass to be shifting by to our north and, given this proximity,
winds should be mostly calm through the night. Cloud cover in
advance of the lift later that night will be the determining factor
in just how cold it gets. For now have gone with the lowest readings
in our northeast, ahead of the clouds.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...Advisory-level Snow Forecast for Sunday...
...Still Some Potential for a Winter Storm Monday Through Tuesday...

That isentropic lift gradually should strengthen across our region
through the day Sunday. Combined with increasing moisture as well,
as the flow aloft becomes more zonal and surface flow switches
around to southerly, we should see snow rates pick up as the day
goes along. Some enhancement should come too from a shortwave moving
across the Midwest during the afternoon. All that said am going with
snow totals Sunday through Sunday night of 2 to 4 inches. There is
pretty good confidence in this solution, given model trends and
convergence towards this thinking.

Confidence in a winter storm for Monday is lowering. 12Z model
guidance continues the trend of throwing the worst of this storm
just south of our region. Ensemble spreads in the SLP and flow aloft
are very high, indicative of plenty of model disparity.
Deterministic models are a little more unified then the GEFS/SREF
counterparts though. The latter group indicate surface flow more
from the south/southeast with flow above the surface also getting
more of a southerly component. We should stay below freezing through
Sunday night, but may start to creep some above freezing temps along
the KY/TN border around daybreak. GFS soundings show we may briefly
lose ice crystals aloft around daybreak as well, so we could just
have more of a changeover from snow to drizzle, with little in the
way of mixed precip...but still to early to rule that out just yet.

As the day continues Monday, most of the model guidance keep our
region under light precip, but the Euro continues to have a sharper
deformation band close to the Ohio River Monday afternoon and
evening. It is in the correct location ahead of the upper trough for
that time period, just not sure why the other models are not picking
up on this band yet. Have not gone with this solution yet, given the
wealth of other models not calling for the band, but something to
watch for.

Kept most of the model blend going from mid week on, as already have
a lot to look at in the short and mid term. GFS/Euro/GEM all show a
clipper middle of the week, but all differ on timing. Given warmer
temperatures, timing during the day would be more rain, whereas at
night it would be snow. Beyond that though the trend is for warmer
weather by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

Polar frontal boundary continues to push southeastward through the
region.  This feature combined with weak upper level disturbance
will continue to produce scattered snow showers and flurries for the
next few hours.  KSDF and KLEX will see the best chances for snow
showers over the first part of the TAF period.  However, with the
upper air feature moving out and drier air moving in aloft, this
should effectively shut off the snow showers after 13/07-09Z.  Gusty
NW winds will continue at the terminals for the next several hours
until the pressure gradient relaxes later this morning.  Ceilings
and visibilities are expected to remain at VFR or above, though KLEX
could see a brief drop to MVFR between 13/06-08Z with the passing
snow showers.

The outlook for the daylight hours looks good as VFR conditions are
expected at all three terminals with northwest winds of 6-8kts.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 130122
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
822 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 820 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Scattered snow showers are moving across southern IN and north
central KY this evening along and ahead of the cold front. Most of
this activity is fairly light, but visibilities could be reduced
somewhat in a few of the more moderate showers. Added in low pops
across the northern half of the region this evening to account for
the showers. These are not expected to produce much, if any,
accumulation. Temperatures have been holding fairly steady this
evening, but colder temperatures are right on the doorstep and will
build in quickly once the do start moving in.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

One more wave droping down over Indiana this hour may enhance the
chances for isolated snow showers over our Bluegrass region late
this afternoon and evening, but with it coming at a time when the
deepest moisture has departed the region not expecting much more
than another tenth or two of an inch of snow out of these showers.
After that we should stay dry until right at the end of the short
term, 12Z Sunday, as gentle isentropic lift helps to start
generating some light snows over our western counties.

With enhanced northwest winds this afternoon and evening expect
colder air to filter into the region. Wind chills Saturday morning
should drop to around 0 as lows drop generally into the lower teens.
Northwest winds will weaken a little during the day Saturday, but
even with some sun during the day, expect highs only to reach the
lower 20s, perhaps not out of the teens along and north of the I-64
corridor. Saturday night, expect the surface high behind this cold
air mass to be shifting by to our north and, given this proximity,
winds should be mostly calm through the night. Cloud cover in
advance of the lift later that night will be the determining factor
in just how cold it gets. For now have gone with the lowest readings
in our northeast, ahead of the clouds.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...Advisory-level Snow Forecast for Sunday...
...Still Some Potential for a Winter Storm Monday Through Tuesday...

That isentropic lift gradually should strengthen across our region
through the day Sunday. Combined with increasing moisture as well,
as the flow aloft becomes more zonal and surface flow switches
around to southerly, we should see snow rates pick up as the day
goes along. Some enhancement should come too from a shortwave moving
across the Midwest during the afternoon. All that said am going with
snow totals Sunday through Sunday night of 2 to 4 inches. There is
pretty good confidence in this solution, given model trends and
convergence towards this thinking.

Confidence in a winter storm for Monday is lowering. 12Z model
guidance continues the trend of throwing the worst of this storm
just south of our region. Ensemble spreads in the SLP and flow aloft
are very high, indicative of plenty of model disparity.
Deterministic models are a little more unified then the GEFS/SREF
counterparts though. The latter group indicate surface flow more
from the south/southeast with flow above the surface also getting
more of a southerly component. We should stay below freezing through
Sunday night, but may start to creep some above freezing temps along
the KY/TN border around daybreak. GFS soundings show we may briefly
lose ice crystals aloft around daybreak as well, so we could just
have more of a changeover from snow to drizzle, with little in the
way of mixed precip...but still to early to rule that out just yet.

As the day continues Monday, most of the model guidance keep our
region under light precip, but the Euro continues to have a sharper
deformation band close to the Ohio River Monday afternoon and
evening. It is in the correct location ahead of the upper trough for
that time period, just not sure why the other models are not picking
up on this band yet. Have not gone with this solution yet, given the
wealth of other models not calling for the band, but something to
watch for.

Kept most of the model blend going from mid week on, as already have
a lot to look at in the short and mid term. GFS/Euro/GEM all show a
clipper middle of the week, but all differ on timing. Given warmer
temperatures, timing during the day would be more rain, whereas at
night it would be snow. Beyond that though the trend is for warmer
weather by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 541 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

An upper level disturbance will bring some light snow to the region
this evening. Snow is a bit more widespread than previously
anticipated and the heavier pockets have reduced visibility to 3-4
miles at upstream stations. Will therefore add in a TEMPO group to
SDF and LEX to account for these possible vis reductions. This snow
should push through the region this evening. Behind it ceilings
should rise to VFR overnight with mostly clear skies expected
through the day Saturday. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will
relax overnight and be out of the north around 5-7 knots through the
day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 122245
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
545 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

One more wave droping down over Indiana this hour may enhance the
chances for isolated snow showers over our Bluegrass region late
this afternoon and evening, but with it coming at a time when the
deepest moisture has departed the region not expecting much more
than another tenth or two of an inch of snow out of these showers.
After that we should stay dry until right at the end of the short
term, 12Z Sunday, as gentle isentropic lift helps to start
generating some light snows over our western counties.

With enhanced northwest winds this afternoon and evening expect
colder air to filter into the region. Wind chills Saturday morning
should drop to around 0 as lows drop generally into the lower teens.
Northwest winds will weaken a little during the day Saturday, but
even with some sun during the day, expect highs only to reach the
lower 20s, perhaps not out of the teens along and north of the I-64
corridor. Saturday night, expect the surface high behind this cold
air mass to be shifting by to our north and, given this proximity,
winds should be mostly calm through the night. Cloud cover in
advance of the lift later that night will be the determining factor
in just how cold it gets. For now have gone with the lowest readings
in our northeast, ahead of the clouds.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...Advisory-level Snow Forecast for Sunday...
...Still Some Potential for a Winter Storm Monday Through Tuesday...

That isentropic lift gradually should strengthen across our region
through the day Sunday. Combined with increasing moisture as well,
as the flow aloft becomes more zonal and surface flow switches
around to southerly, we should see snow rates pick up as the day
goes along. Some enhancement should come too from a shortwave moving
across the Midwest during the afternoon. All that said am going with
snow totals Sunday through Sunday night of 2 to 4 inches. There is
pretty good confidence in this solution, given model trends and
convergence towards this thinking.

Confidence in a winter storm for Monday is lowering. 12Z model
guidance continues the trend of throwing the worst of this storm
just south of our region. Ensemble spreads in the SLP and flow aloft
are very high, indicative of plenty of model disparity.
Deterministic models are a little more unified then the GEFS/SREF
counterparts though. The latter group indicate surface flow more
from the south/southeast with flow above the surface also getting
more of a southerly component. We should stay below freezing through
Sunday night, but may start to creep some above freezing temps along
the KY/TN border around daybreak. GFS soundings show we may briefly
lose ice crystals aloft around daybreak as well, so we could just
have more of a changeover from snow to drizzle, with little in the
way of mixed precip...but still to early to rule that out just yet.

As the day continues Monday, most of the model guidance keep our
region under light precip, but the Euro continues to have a sharper
deformation band close to the Ohio River Monday afternoon and
evening. It is in the correct location ahead of the upper trough for
that time period, just not sure why the other models are not picking
up on this band yet. Have not gone with this solution yet, given the
wealth of other models not calling for the band, but something to
watch for.

Kept most of the model blend going from mid week on, as already have
a lot to look at in the short and mid term. GFS/Euro/GEM all show a
clipper middle of the week, but all differ on timing. Given warmer
temperatures, timing during the day would be more rain, whereas at
night it would be snow. Beyond that though the trend is for warmer
weather by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 541 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

An upper level disturbance will bring some light snow to the region
this evening. Snow is a bit more widespread than previously
anticipated and the heavier pockets have reduced visibility to 3-4
miles at upstream stations. Will therefore add in a TEMPO group to
SDF and LEX to account for these possible vis reductions. This snow
should push through the region this evening. Behind it ceilings
should rise to VFR overnight with mostly clear skies expected
through the day Saturday. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will
relax overnight and be out of the north around 5-7 knots through the
day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 122007
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
307 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

One more wave droping down over Indiana this hour may enhance the
chances for isolated snow showers over our Bluegrass region late
this afternoon and evening, but with it coming at a time when the
deepest moisture has departed the region not expecting much more
than another tenth or two of an inch of snow out of these showers.
After that we should stay dry until right at the end of the short
term, 12Z Sunday, as gentle isentropic lift helps to start
generating some light snows over our western counties.

With enhanced northwest winds this afternoon and evening expect
colder air to filter into the region. Wind chills Saturday morning
should drop to around 0 as lows drop generally into the lower teens.
Northwest winds will weaken a little during the day Saturday, but
even with some sun during the day, expect highs only to reach the
lower 20s, perhaps not out of the teens along and north of the I-64
corridor. Saturday night, expect the surface high behind this cold
air mass to be shifting by to our north and, given this proximity,
winds should be mostly calm through the night. Cloud cover in
advance of the lift later that night will be the determining factor
in just how cold it gets. For now have gone with the lowest readings
in our northeast, ahead of the clouds.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...Advisory-level Snow Forecast for Sunday...
...Still Some Potential for a Winter Storm Monday Through Tuesday...

That isentropic lift gradually should strengthen across our region
through the day Sunday. Combined with increasing moisture as well,
as the flow aloft becomes more zonal and surface flow switches
around to southerly, we should see snow rates pick up as the day
goes along. Some enhancement should come too from a shortwave moving
across the Midwest during the afternoon. All that said am going with
snow totals Sunday through Sunday night of 2 to 4 inches. There is
pretty good confidence in this solution, given model trends and
convergence towards this thinking.

Confidence in a winter storm for Monday is lowering. 12Z model
guidance continues the trend of throwing the worst of this storm
just south of our region. Ensemble spreads in the SLP and flow aloft
are very high, indicative of plenty of model disparity.
Deterministic models are a little more unified then the GEFS/SREF
counterparts though. The latter group indicate surface flow more
from the south/southeast with flow above the surface also getting
more of a southerly component. We should stay below freezing through
Sunday night, but may start to creep some above freezing temps along
the KY/TN border around daybreak. GFS soundings show we may briefly
lose ice crystals aloft around daybreak as well, so we could just
have more of a changeover from snow to drizzle, with little in the
way of mixed precip...but still to early to rule that out just yet.

As the day continues Monday, most of the model guidance keep our
region under light precip, but the Euro continues to have a sharper
deformation band close to the Ohio River Monday afternoon and
evening. It is in the correct location ahead of the upper trough for
that time period, just not sure why the other models are not picking
up on this band yet. Have not gone with this solution yet, given the
wealth of other models not calling for the band, but something to
watch for.

Kept most of the model blend going from mid week on, as already have
a lot to look at in the short and mid term. GFS/Euro/GEM all show a
clipper middle of the week, but all differ on timing. Given warmer
temperatures, timing during the day would be more rain, whereas at
night it would be snow. Beyond that though the trend is for warmer
weather by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Winds will be the main issue for aviation interests this afternoon
as they come in from the WNW and gust into the 15-20 knot range,
especially at SDF and LEX. Ceilings will be tricky as well, with
MVFR conditions expected as stratocu just below 3k` are expected to
develop. Forecast confidence not as high with the ceilings as with
the winds.

An upper level disturbance south of ORD this afternoon will bring a
few snow showers to SDF and LEX this evening but they should be of
little, if any, impact. Low clouds should gradually scatter out
overnight behind the disturbance, especially at SDF and BWG.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 121707
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1207 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 820 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Back edge of the deeper moisture causing this morning`s snows is
about to enter our northwest forecast area. This edge should clear
our southeastern counties within an hour of the expiration of the
winter weather advisory.  Already have had a few reports of an inch
of snow and totals likely will range from 0.5-2 inches in the
advisory area. Freshened up the grids with latest radar trends and
observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Early morning IR satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across the region.  Temperatures ranged
from the low-mid 20s across the Bluegrass region to the upper 20s
out near the heritage corridor (I-65 corridor) and out across our
southwest sections.

Regional radar imagery shows an area of snow showers out across
eastern MO and Central/southern IL.  This is associated with a mid-
level vorticity perturbation along with a jet streak pushing in from
the northwest.  Latest high-res short term models continue to
suggest that this activity will move east-southeast this morning
with an axis of snow pushing through western and southern KY.  We
still think a period of 2-4 hours of moderate snow will occur with
this system as we have a good period of lift through the DGZ.  The
current Winter Weather Advisory area still looks very good and no
changes will be made to the ongoing headline.  Within this advisory
area, 3/4-1 inch of snow looks likely though some locations that get
under a moderate-heavy period of precip could see isolated higher
amounts.  This snow occurring around or shortly after sunrise will
negatively impact the morning commute across southern KY.  Further
north, antecedent dry air in place will likely result in snow
flurries and lighter intensity snow showers.  A dusting to a half of
an inch will be possible but the major impacts will be south of the
WK and BG Parkways.  We plan on continuing to highlight the north
with a Special Weather Statement.

We`re likely to see a brief lull in precipitation by late morning as
the upper air perturbation and jet streak moves east-southeast and
away from the region.  Colder air will push into the region aloft as
a surface front pushes through the region.  The colder air aloft
will steepen lapse rates fairly well so convective snow showers are
likely to develop across the region.  The model trends though have
suggested lesser moisture available this afternoon, so areal
coverage may not be as widespread as previous forecasts indicated.
In any case, some light accumulations of snow will be possible
across the region this afternoon...with the far NE and Bluegrass
region being the most favored.

Temperatures this afternoon will likely spike ahead of the front
into the lower 30s but then temperatures will fall markedly late
this afternoon and into the evening hours with brisk NW winds.
Evening temps will drop quickly into the teens pushing wind chills
down near zero.  Overnight lows will likely drop into the upper
single digits across the north with lower teens across the central
and southern sections.  Dry and cold conditions are expected on
Saturday with high temperatures warming into the 15-20 degree range
across southern IN and northern KY. Slightly warmer readings will be
found across southern KY with most locations warming into the 19-24
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 345 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

=======================================
Long Term Synopsis
=======================================

Upper air pattern across the CONUS is expected to undergo
amplification early next week as the northern branch of the jet
stream strengthens and moves into the central US.  Initial long wave
trough over the eastern US will move out over the weekend with a
small window of ridging holding sway across the Ohio Valley.  As the
upper jet digs into the central CONUS a deepening trough axis will
result in surface cyclogenesis across the lower MS Valley by late
Monday.  The surface cyclone will trek across the TN Valley and then
up the eastern side of the Appalachians on Tuesday and then into New
England by midweek.  A long wave trough will remain in place across
the eastern half of the US by midweek as heights build across the
western CONUS.  The western CONUS ridge is expected to be short
lived as strong Pacific Jet will send a series of disturbances into
the Pacific northwest resulting a break down of the ridge.  A
largely zonal flow pattern is expected to develop with a flood of
milder Pacific air intruding into much of the US by the end of the
week.

=======================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
=======================================

In terms of model trends, there is increased forecast convergence
that indicates that we`ll see two weather systems affect the region
from late Saturday and through Tuesday.  The first of these will be
a fast moving perturbation moving through on Sunday followed by a
stronger/developing system for Monday into Tuesday.

Overall model trends with the first system remain generally the same
and overall forecast confidence is higher here than in previous
forecasts.  A blend of the Euro/GFS/GEM seems reasonable here
(Saturday night through Sunday night time frame).  This system will
bring a swath of light snow to the region Sunday and Sunday night.

With regards to the secondary system, the models continue to
struggle with the overall complexity of the upper level pattern.
There remains potential for the northern and southern branches of
the jet to interact and possibly phase.  In addition, the Ohio
Valley will be on the southern periphery of a pre-existing polar
airmass.  Return flow ahead of the developing system poises a
problem in terms of overrunning and the potential for mixed
precipitation. The system has yet to enter the North American upper
air network, so we expect run to run differences to continue for the
next 24 hours or so.

In terms of model trends, all of the global models have trended
slightly faster in terms of the system moving through the region.
The GFS and GEM are a bit more progressive than the Euro and have
higher QPF amounts across southern KY/northern TN through the
period.  The Euro has trended a bit more south with its QPF axis but
remains generally north of the GFS/GEM solutions.  All of the models
do show warmer air pushing northward into the region on Monday which
results in mixed precipitation issues.  Ensemble spread remains
large at this time with varying degrees of phasing and non-phasing
with the systems.  Corresponding surface tracks from the ensembles
vary as well resulting in a wide variety of p-type solutions from
the models.

For this forecast, we`re going to attempt to maintain forecast
continuity here.  We plan on utilizing a blend of the new
operational models with more emphasis from the Euro and its parallel
runs combined with the ongoing forecast.  We anticipate that the
model spreads will decrease a bit within the next 1-2 runs as the
storm system becomes properly sampled in the upper air network.
Therefore, further refinements (some of which may be significant)
are likely later today and tonight.

Forecast confidence remains low in the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame as timing issues remain with the potential for another clipper
system to impact the region Tue/Wed.  In addition, the near surface
temperature environment will be close to critical levels resulting
in the possibly of mixed precipitation continuing.

Forecast confidence does increase a bit toward the later portion of
the period given the relatively good model agreement in terms of a
moderating trend in temperatures.

=======================================
Sensible and Societal Weather Impacts
=======================================

Early in the forecast period we`ll see quiet weather conditions.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate early Sunday morning as the
first weather disturbance slides into the region from the northwest.
This will result in light snow moving through the region during the
day on Sunday with the potential for some light accumulations as
most locations will see temperatures remain at or below freezing.
Overall multi-model ensemble solutions suggest afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 20s to around 30 in the north
with lower 30s in the south.

Secondary system will begin to affect the region late Sunday night
and into Monday morning.  Model proximity soundings indicate that
precipitation should remain in the form of snow Sunday night and into
the early morning hours on Monday.  However, the northward transport
of warmer air aloft ahead of the developing surface system poses a
risk of mixed precipitation across portions of the region.

The crux of the forecast will be on the depth of the cold air in the
near surface environment and the evolution and track of the surface
cyclone.  Given the current data, the most likely scenario still
looks to be a snow to wintry mix event during the day on Monday. Our
northern areas will likely stay snow for a bit longer as the depth
of the cold air looks to be larger across the north with a more
shallow layer down across the south.  While it is far too early to
speculate on snowfall amounts, the amount of moisture being
transported northward from the Gulf could result in significant
amounts of snowfall for portions of our region.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, we`ll see another
clipper system cruise through Tue/Wed.  Depending on the timing,
this system could bring a mix of rain/snow to the region.  The
models do agree that a moderating trend in temperatures will occur
by late week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Winds will be the main issue for aviation interests this afternoon
as they come in from the WNW and gust into the 15-20 knot range,
especially at SDF and LEX. Ceilings will be tricky as well, with
MVFR conditions expected as stratocu just below 3k` are expected to
develop. Forecast confidence not as high with the ceilings as with
the winds.

An upper level disturbance south of ORD this afternoon will bring a
few snow showers to SDF and LEX this evening but they should be of
little, if any, impact. Low clouds should gradually scatter out
overnight behind the disturbance, especially at SDF and BWG.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 121707
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1207 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 820 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Back edge of the deeper moisture causing this morning`s snows is
about to enter our northwest forecast area. This edge should clear
our southeastern counties within an hour of the expiration of the
winter weather advisory.  Already have had a few reports of an inch
of snow and totals likely will range from 0.5-2 inches in the
advisory area. Freshened up the grids with latest radar trends and
observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Early morning IR satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across the region.  Temperatures ranged
from the low-mid 20s across the Bluegrass region to the upper 20s
out near the heritage corridor (I-65 corridor) and out across our
southwest sections.

Regional radar imagery shows an area of snow showers out across
eastern MO and Central/southern IL.  This is associated with a mid-
level vorticity perturbation along with a jet streak pushing in from
the northwest.  Latest high-res short term models continue to
suggest that this activity will move east-southeast this morning
with an axis of snow pushing through western and southern KY.  We
still think a period of 2-4 hours of moderate snow will occur with
this system as we have a good period of lift through the DGZ.  The
current Winter Weather Advisory area still looks very good and no
changes will be made to the ongoing headline.  Within this advisory
area, 3/4-1 inch of snow looks likely though some locations that get
under a moderate-heavy period of precip could see isolated higher
amounts.  This snow occurring around or shortly after sunrise will
negatively impact the morning commute across southern KY.  Further
north, antecedent dry air in place will likely result in snow
flurries and lighter intensity snow showers.  A dusting to a half of
an inch will be possible but the major impacts will be south of the
WK and BG Parkways.  We plan on continuing to highlight the north
with a Special Weather Statement.

We`re likely to see a brief lull in precipitation by late morning as
the upper air perturbation and jet streak moves east-southeast and
away from the region.  Colder air will push into the region aloft as
a surface front pushes through the region.  The colder air aloft
will steepen lapse rates fairly well so convective snow showers are
likely to develop across the region.  The model trends though have
suggested lesser moisture available this afternoon, so areal
coverage may not be as widespread as previous forecasts indicated.
In any case, some light accumulations of snow will be possible
across the region this afternoon...with the far NE and Bluegrass
region being the most favored.

Temperatures this afternoon will likely spike ahead of the front
into the lower 30s but then temperatures will fall markedly late
this afternoon and into the evening hours with brisk NW winds.
Evening temps will drop quickly into the teens pushing wind chills
down near zero.  Overnight lows will likely drop into the upper
single digits across the north with lower teens across the central
and southern sections.  Dry and cold conditions are expected on
Saturday with high temperatures warming into the 15-20 degree range
across southern IN and northern KY. Slightly warmer readings will be
found across southern KY with most locations warming into the 19-24
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 345 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

=======================================
Long Term Synopsis
=======================================

Upper air pattern across the CONUS is expected to undergo
amplification early next week as the northern branch of the jet
stream strengthens and moves into the central US.  Initial long wave
trough over the eastern US will move out over the weekend with a
small window of ridging holding sway across the Ohio Valley.  As the
upper jet digs into the central CONUS a deepening trough axis will
result in surface cyclogenesis across the lower MS Valley by late
Monday.  The surface cyclone will trek across the TN Valley and then
up the eastern side of the Appalachians on Tuesday and then into New
England by midweek.  A long wave trough will remain in place across
the eastern half of the US by midweek as heights build across the
western CONUS.  The western CONUS ridge is expected to be short
lived as strong Pacific Jet will send a series of disturbances into
the Pacific northwest resulting a break down of the ridge.  A
largely zonal flow pattern is expected to develop with a flood of
milder Pacific air intruding into much of the US by the end of the
week.

=======================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
=======================================

In terms of model trends, there is increased forecast convergence
that indicates that we`ll see two weather systems affect the region
from late Saturday and through Tuesday.  The first of these will be
a fast moving perturbation moving through on Sunday followed by a
stronger/developing system for Monday into Tuesday.

Overall model trends with the first system remain generally the same
and overall forecast confidence is higher here than in previous
forecasts.  A blend of the Euro/GFS/GEM seems reasonable here
(Saturday night through Sunday night time frame).  This system will
bring a swath of light snow to the region Sunday and Sunday night.

With regards to the secondary system, the models continue to
struggle with the overall complexity of the upper level pattern.
There remains potential for the northern and southern branches of
the jet to interact and possibly phase.  In addition, the Ohio
Valley will be on the southern periphery of a pre-existing polar
airmass.  Return flow ahead of the developing system poises a
problem in terms of overrunning and the potential for mixed
precipitation. The system has yet to enter the North American upper
air network, so we expect run to run differences to continue for the
next 24 hours or so.

In terms of model trends, all of the global models have trended
slightly faster in terms of the system moving through the region.
The GFS and GEM are a bit more progressive than the Euro and have
higher QPF amounts across southern KY/northern TN through the
period.  The Euro has trended a bit more south with its QPF axis but
remains generally north of the GFS/GEM solutions.  All of the models
do show warmer air pushing northward into the region on Monday which
results in mixed precipitation issues.  Ensemble spread remains
large at this time with varying degrees of phasing and non-phasing
with the systems.  Corresponding surface tracks from the ensembles
vary as well resulting in a wide variety of p-type solutions from
the models.

For this forecast, we`re going to attempt to maintain forecast
continuity here.  We plan on utilizing a blend of the new
operational models with more emphasis from the Euro and its parallel
runs combined with the ongoing forecast.  We anticipate that the
model spreads will decrease a bit within the next 1-2 runs as the
storm system becomes properly sampled in the upper air network.
Therefore, further refinements (some of which may be significant)
are likely later today and tonight.

Forecast confidence remains low in the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame as timing issues remain with the potential for another clipper
system to impact the region Tue/Wed.  In addition, the near surface
temperature environment will be close to critical levels resulting
in the possibly of mixed precipitation continuing.

Forecast confidence does increase a bit toward the later portion of
the period given the relatively good model agreement in terms of a
moderating trend in temperatures.

=======================================
Sensible and Societal Weather Impacts
=======================================

Early in the forecast period we`ll see quiet weather conditions.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate early Sunday morning as the
first weather disturbance slides into the region from the northwest.
This will result in light snow moving through the region during the
day on Sunday with the potential for some light accumulations as
most locations will see temperatures remain at or below freezing.
Overall multi-model ensemble solutions suggest afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 20s to around 30 in the north
with lower 30s in the south.

Secondary system will begin to affect the region late Sunday night
and into Monday morning.  Model proximity soundings indicate that
precipitation should remain in the form of snow Sunday night and into
the early morning hours on Monday.  However, the northward transport
of warmer air aloft ahead of the developing surface system poses a
risk of mixed precipitation across portions of the region.

The crux of the forecast will be on the depth of the cold air in the
near surface environment and the evolution and track of the surface
cyclone.  Given the current data, the most likely scenario still
looks to be a snow to wintry mix event during the day on Monday. Our
northern areas will likely stay snow for a bit longer as the depth
of the cold air looks to be larger across the north with a more
shallow layer down across the south.  While it is far too early to
speculate on snowfall amounts, the amount of moisture being
transported northward from the Gulf could result in significant
amounts of snowfall for portions of our region.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, we`ll see another
clipper system cruise through Tue/Wed.  Depending on the timing,
this system could bring a mix of rain/snow to the region.  The
models do agree that a moderating trend in temperatures will occur
by late week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Winds will be the main issue for aviation interests this afternoon
as they come in from the WNW and gust into the 15-20 knot range,
especially at SDF and LEX. Ceilings will be tricky as well, with
MVFR conditions expected as stratocu just below 3k` are expected to
develop. Forecast confidence not as high with the ceilings as with
the winds.

An upper level disturbance south of ORD this afternoon will bring a
few snow showers to SDF and LEX this evening but they should be of
little, if any, impact. Low clouds should gradually scatter out
overnight behind the disturbance, especially at SDF and BWG.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 121707
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1207 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 820 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Back edge of the deeper moisture causing this morning`s snows is
about to enter our northwest forecast area. This edge should clear
our southeastern counties within an hour of the expiration of the
winter weather advisory.  Already have had a few reports of an inch
of snow and totals likely will range from 0.5-2 inches in the
advisory area. Freshened up the grids with latest radar trends and
observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Early morning IR satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across the region.  Temperatures ranged
from the low-mid 20s across the Bluegrass region to the upper 20s
out near the heritage corridor (I-65 corridor) and out across our
southwest sections.

Regional radar imagery shows an area of snow showers out across
eastern MO and Central/southern IL.  This is associated with a mid-
level vorticity perturbation along with a jet streak pushing in from
the northwest.  Latest high-res short term models continue to
suggest that this activity will move east-southeast this morning
with an axis of snow pushing through western and southern KY.  We
still think a period of 2-4 hours of moderate snow will occur with
this system as we have a good period of lift through the DGZ.  The
current Winter Weather Advisory area still looks very good and no
changes will be made to the ongoing headline.  Within this advisory
area, 3/4-1 inch of snow looks likely though some locations that get
under a moderate-heavy period of precip could see isolated higher
amounts.  This snow occurring around or shortly after sunrise will
negatively impact the morning commute across southern KY.  Further
north, antecedent dry air in place will likely result in snow
flurries and lighter intensity snow showers.  A dusting to a half of
an inch will be possible but the major impacts will be south of the
WK and BG Parkways.  We plan on continuing to highlight the north
with a Special Weather Statement.

We`re likely to see a brief lull in precipitation by late morning as
the upper air perturbation and jet streak moves east-southeast and
away from the region.  Colder air will push into the region aloft as
a surface front pushes through the region.  The colder air aloft
will steepen lapse rates fairly well so convective snow showers are
likely to develop across the region.  The model trends though have
suggested lesser moisture available this afternoon, so areal
coverage may not be as widespread as previous forecasts indicated.
In any case, some light accumulations of snow will be possible
across the region this afternoon...with the far NE and Bluegrass
region being the most favored.

Temperatures this afternoon will likely spike ahead of the front
into the lower 30s but then temperatures will fall markedly late
this afternoon and into the evening hours with brisk NW winds.
Evening temps will drop quickly into the teens pushing wind chills
down near zero.  Overnight lows will likely drop into the upper
single digits across the north with lower teens across the central
and southern sections.  Dry and cold conditions are expected on
Saturday with high temperatures warming into the 15-20 degree range
across southern IN and northern KY. Slightly warmer readings will be
found across southern KY with most locations warming into the 19-24
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 345 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

=======================================
Long Term Synopsis
=======================================

Upper air pattern across the CONUS is expected to undergo
amplification early next week as the northern branch of the jet
stream strengthens and moves into the central US.  Initial long wave
trough over the eastern US will move out over the weekend with a
small window of ridging holding sway across the Ohio Valley.  As the
upper jet digs into the central CONUS a deepening trough axis will
result in surface cyclogenesis across the lower MS Valley by late
Monday.  The surface cyclone will trek across the TN Valley and then
up the eastern side of the Appalachians on Tuesday and then into New
England by midweek.  A long wave trough will remain in place across
the eastern half of the US by midweek as heights build across the
western CONUS.  The western CONUS ridge is expected to be short
lived as strong Pacific Jet will send a series of disturbances into
the Pacific northwest resulting a break down of the ridge.  A
largely zonal flow pattern is expected to develop with a flood of
milder Pacific air intruding into much of the US by the end of the
week.

=======================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
=======================================

In terms of model trends, there is increased forecast convergence
that indicates that we`ll see two weather systems affect the region
from late Saturday and through Tuesday.  The first of these will be
a fast moving perturbation moving through on Sunday followed by a
stronger/developing system for Monday into Tuesday.

Overall model trends with the first system remain generally the same
and overall forecast confidence is higher here than in previous
forecasts.  A blend of the Euro/GFS/GEM seems reasonable here
(Saturday night through Sunday night time frame).  This system will
bring a swath of light snow to the region Sunday and Sunday night.

With regards to the secondary system, the models continue to
struggle with the overall complexity of the upper level pattern.
There remains potential for the northern and southern branches of
the jet to interact and possibly phase.  In addition, the Ohio
Valley will be on the southern periphery of a pre-existing polar
airmass.  Return flow ahead of the developing system poises a
problem in terms of overrunning and the potential for mixed
precipitation. The system has yet to enter the North American upper
air network, so we expect run to run differences to continue for the
next 24 hours or so.

In terms of model trends, all of the global models have trended
slightly faster in terms of the system moving through the region.
The GFS and GEM are a bit more progressive than the Euro and have
higher QPF amounts across southern KY/northern TN through the
period.  The Euro has trended a bit more south with its QPF axis but
remains generally north of the GFS/GEM solutions.  All of the models
do show warmer air pushing northward into the region on Monday which
results in mixed precipitation issues.  Ensemble spread remains
large at this time with varying degrees of phasing and non-phasing
with the systems.  Corresponding surface tracks from the ensembles
vary as well resulting in a wide variety of p-type solutions from
the models.

For this forecast, we`re going to attempt to maintain forecast
continuity here.  We plan on utilizing a blend of the new
operational models with more emphasis from the Euro and its parallel
runs combined with the ongoing forecast.  We anticipate that the
model spreads will decrease a bit within the next 1-2 runs as the
storm system becomes properly sampled in the upper air network.
Therefore, further refinements (some of which may be significant)
are likely later today and tonight.

Forecast confidence remains low in the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame as timing issues remain with the potential for another clipper
system to impact the region Tue/Wed.  In addition, the near surface
temperature environment will be close to critical levels resulting
in the possibly of mixed precipitation continuing.

Forecast confidence does increase a bit toward the later portion of
the period given the relatively good model agreement in terms of a
moderating trend in temperatures.

=======================================
Sensible and Societal Weather Impacts
=======================================

Early in the forecast period we`ll see quiet weather conditions.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate early Sunday morning as the
first weather disturbance slides into the region from the northwest.
This will result in light snow moving through the region during the
day on Sunday with the potential for some light accumulations as
most locations will see temperatures remain at or below freezing.
Overall multi-model ensemble solutions suggest afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 20s to around 30 in the north
with lower 30s in the south.

Secondary system will begin to affect the region late Sunday night
and into Monday morning.  Model proximity soundings indicate that
precipitation should remain in the form of snow Sunday night and into
the early morning hours on Monday.  However, the northward transport
of warmer air aloft ahead of the developing surface system poses a
risk of mixed precipitation across portions of the region.

The crux of the forecast will be on the depth of the cold air in the
near surface environment and the evolution and track of the surface
cyclone.  Given the current data, the most likely scenario still
looks to be a snow to wintry mix event during the day on Monday. Our
northern areas will likely stay snow for a bit longer as the depth
of the cold air looks to be larger across the north with a more
shallow layer down across the south.  While it is far too early to
speculate on snowfall amounts, the amount of moisture being
transported northward from the Gulf could result in significant
amounts of snowfall for portions of our region.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, we`ll see another
clipper system cruise through Tue/Wed.  Depending on the timing,
this system could bring a mix of rain/snow to the region.  The
models do agree that a moderating trend in temperatures will occur
by late week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Winds will be the main issue for aviation interests this afternoon
as they come in from the WNW and gust into the 15-20 knot range,
especially at SDF and LEX. Ceilings will be tricky as well, with
MVFR conditions expected as stratocu just below 3k` are expected to
develop. Forecast confidence not as high with the ceilings as with
the winds.

An upper level disturbance south of ORD this afternoon will bring a
few snow showers to SDF and LEX this evening but they should be of
little, if any, impact. Low clouds should gradually scatter out
overnight behind the disturbance, especially at SDF and BWG.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 121322
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
822 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 820 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Back edge of the deeper moisture causing this morning`s snows is
about to enter our northwest forecast area. This edge should clear
our southeastern counties within an hour of the expiration of the
winter weather advisory.  Already have had a few reports of an inch
of snow and totals likely will range from 0.5-2 inches in the
advisory area. Freshened up the grids with latest radar trends and
observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Early morning IR satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across the region.  Temperatures ranged
from the low-mid 20s across the Bluegrass region to the upper 20s
out near the heritage corridor (I-65 corridor) and out across our
southwest sections.

Regional radar imagery shows an area of snow showers out across
eastern MO and Central/southern IL.  This is associated with a mid-
level vorticity perturbation along with a jet streak pushing in from
the northwest.  Latest high-res short term models continue to
suggest that this activity will move east-southeast this morning
with an axis of snow pushing through western and southern KY.  We
still think a period of 2-4 hours of moderate snow will occur with
this system as we have a good period of lift through the DGZ.  The
current Winter Weather Advisory area still looks very good and no
changes will be made to the ongoing headline.  Within this advisory
area, 3/4-1 inch of snow looks likely though some locations that get
under a moderate-heavy period of precip could see isolated higher
amounts.  This snow occurring around or shortly after sunrise will
negatively impact the morning commute across southern KY.  Further
north, antecedent dry air in place will likely result in snow
flurries and lighter intensity snow showers.  A dusting to a half of
an inch will be possible but the major impacts will be south of the
WK and BG Parkways.  We plan on continuing to highlight the north
with a Special Weather Statement.

We`re likely to see a brief lull in precipitation by late morning as
the upper air perturbation and jet streak moves east-southeast and
away from the region.  Colder air will push into the region aloft as
a surface front pushes through the region.  The colder air aloft
will steepen lapse rates fairly well so convective snow showers are
likely to develop across the region.  The model trends though have
suggested lesser moisture available this afternoon, so areal
coverage may not be as widespread as previous forecasts indicated.
In any case, some light accumulations of snow will be possible
across the region this afternoon...with the far NE and Bluegrass
region being the most favored.

Temperatures this afternoon will likely spike ahead of the front
into the lower 30s but then temperatures will fall markedly late
this afternoon and into the evening hours with brisk NW winds.
Evening temps will drop quickly into the teens pushing wind chills
down near zero.  Overnight lows will likely drop into the upper
single digits across the north with lower teens across the central
and southern sections.  Dry and cold conditions are expected on
Saturday with high temperatures warming into the 15-20 degree range
across southern IN and northern KY. Slightly warmer readings will be
found across southern KY with most locations warming into the 19-24
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 345 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

=======================================
Long Term Synopsis
=======================================

Upper air pattern across the CONUS is expected to undergo
amplification early next week as the northern branch of the jet
stream strengthens and moves into the central US.  Initial long wave
trough over the eastern US will move out over the weekend with a
small window of ridging holding sway across the Ohio Valley.  As the
upper jet digs into the central CONUS a deepening trough axis will
result in surface cyclogenesis across the lower MS Valley by late
Monday.  The surface cyclone will trek across the TN Valley and then
up the eastern side of the Appalachians on Tuesday and then into New
England by midweek.  A long wave trough will remain in place across
the eastern half of the US by midweek as heights build across the
western CONUS.  The western CONUS ridge is expected to be short
lived as strong Pacific Jet will send a series of disturbances into
the Pacific northwest resulting a break down of the ridge.  A
largely zonal flow pattern is expected to develop with a flood of
milder Pacific air intruding into much of the US by the end of the
week.

=======================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
=======================================

In terms of model trends, there is increased forecast convergence
that indicates that we`ll see two weather systems affect the region
from late Saturday and through Tuesday.  The first of these will be
a fast moving perturbation moving through on Sunday followed by a
stronger/developing system for Monday into Tuesday.

Overall model trends with the first system remain generally the same
and overall forecast confidence is higher here than in previous
forecasts.  A blend of the Euro/GFS/GEM seems reasonable here
(Saturday night through Sunday night time frame).  This system will
bring a swath of light snow to the region Sunday and Sunday night.

With regards to the secondary system, the models continue to
struggle with the overall complexity of the upper level pattern.
There remains potential for the northern and southern branches of
the jet to interact and possibly phase.  In addition, the Ohio
Valley will be on the southern periphery of a pre-existing polar
airmass.  Return flow ahead of the developing system poises a
problem in terms of overrunning and the potential for mixed
precipitation. The system has yet to enter the North American upper
air network, so we expect run to run differences to continue for the
next 24 hours or so.

In terms of model trends, all of the global models have trended
slightly faster in terms of the system moving through the region.
The GFS and GEM are a bit more progressive than the Euro and have
higher QPF amounts across southern KY/northern TN through the
period.  The Euro has trended a bit more south with its QPF axis but
remains generally north of the GFS/GEM solutions.  All of the models
do show warmer air pushing northward into the region on Monday which
results in mixed precipitation issues.  Ensemble spread remains
large at this time with varying degrees of phasing and non-phasing
with the systems.  Corresponding surface tracks from the ensembles
vary as well resulting in a wide variety of p-type solutions from
the models.

For this forecast, we`re going to attempt to maintain forecast
continuity here.  We plan on utilizing a blend of the new
operational models with more emphasis from the Euro and its parallel
runs combined with the ongoing forecast.  We anticipate that the
model spreads will decrease a bit within the next 1-2 runs as the
storm system becomes properly sampled in the upper air network.
Therefore, further refinements (some of which may be significant)
are likely later today and tonight.

Forecast confidence remains low in the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame as timing issues remain with the potential for another clipper
system to impact the region Tue/Wed.  In addition, the near surface
temperature environment will be close to critical levels resulting
in the possibly of mixed precipitation continuing.

Forecast confidence does increase a bit toward the later portion of
the period given the relatively good model agreement in terms of a
moderating trend in temperatures.

=======================================
Sensible and Societal Weather Impacts
=======================================

Early in the forecast period we`ll see quiet weather conditions.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate early Sunday morning as the
first weather disturbance slides into the region from the northwest.
This will result in light snow moving through the region during the
day on Sunday with the potential for some light accumulations as
most locations will see temperatures remain at or below freezing.
Overall multi-model ensemble solutions suggest afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 20s to around 30 in the north
with lower 30s in the south.

Secondary system will begin to affect the region late Sunday night
and into Monday morning.  Model proximity soundings indicate that
precipitation should remain in the form of snow Sunday night and into
the early morning hours on Monday.  However, the northward transport
of warmer air aloft ahead of the developing surface system poses a
risk of mixed precipitation across portions of the region.

The crux of the forecast will be on the depth of the cold air in the
near surface environment and the evolution and track of the surface
cyclone.  Given the current data, the most likely scenario still
looks to be a snow to wintry mix event during the day on Monday. Our
northern areas will likely stay snow for a bit longer as the depth
of the cold air looks to be larger across the north with a more
shallow layer down across the south.  While it is far too early to
speculate on snowfall amounts, the amount of moisture being
transported northward from the Gulf could result in significant
amounts of snowfall for portions of our region.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, we`ll see another
clipper system cruise through Tue/Wed.  Depending on the timing,
this system could bring a mix of rain/snow to the region.  The
models do agree that a moderating trend in temperatures will occur
by late week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 606 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Snow will impact BWG this morning while SDF/LEX lie on the northern
edge of this system and likely will just see flurries or very light
snow showers. At BWG, plan on brief periods of IFR conditions
through 15z or so, then the snow will move east of the airport. In
its wake, MVFR to low-end VFR ceilings will remain. At SDF/LEX,
ceilings will lower to around 3-4 kft.

This afternoon a front will pass through, bringing gusty west winds
to near 20 kts at all sites. Scattered snow showers are possible
between 21 and 00z at SDF/LEX, some of which could bring short
periods of restrictions. Confidence in coverage isn`t high enough at
this time to prevail in the TAF.

Lingering mid to low level moisture will keep clouds around this
evening, but as high pressure builds in tonight, these should
scatter out. Winds will remain out of the west/northwest at 10 kts
or so tonight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning
     for KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 121322
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
822 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 820 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Back edge of the deeper moisture causing this morning`s snows is
about to enter our northwest forecast area. This edge should clear
our southeastern counties within an hour of the expiration of the
winter weather advisory.  Already have had a few reports of an inch
of snow and totals likely will range from 0.5-2 inches in the
advisory area. Freshened up the grids with latest radar trends and
observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Early morning IR satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across the region.  Temperatures ranged
from the low-mid 20s across the Bluegrass region to the upper 20s
out near the heritage corridor (I-65 corridor) and out across our
southwest sections.

Regional radar imagery shows an area of snow showers out across
eastern MO and Central/southern IL.  This is associated with a mid-
level vorticity perturbation along with a jet streak pushing in from
the northwest.  Latest high-res short term models continue to
suggest that this activity will move east-southeast this morning
with an axis of snow pushing through western and southern KY.  We
still think a period of 2-4 hours of moderate snow will occur with
this system as we have a good period of lift through the DGZ.  The
current Winter Weather Advisory area still looks very good and no
changes will be made to the ongoing headline.  Within this advisory
area, 3/4-1 inch of snow looks likely though some locations that get
under a moderate-heavy period of precip could see isolated higher
amounts.  This snow occurring around or shortly after sunrise will
negatively impact the morning commute across southern KY.  Further
north, antecedent dry air in place will likely result in snow
flurries and lighter intensity snow showers.  A dusting to a half of
an inch will be possible but the major impacts will be south of the
WK and BG Parkways.  We plan on continuing to highlight the north
with a Special Weather Statement.

We`re likely to see a brief lull in precipitation by late morning as
the upper air perturbation and jet streak moves east-southeast and
away from the region.  Colder air will push into the region aloft as
a surface front pushes through the region.  The colder air aloft
will steepen lapse rates fairly well so convective snow showers are
likely to develop across the region.  The model trends though have
suggested lesser moisture available this afternoon, so areal
coverage may not be as widespread as previous forecasts indicated.
In any case, some light accumulations of snow will be possible
across the region this afternoon...with the far NE and Bluegrass
region being the most favored.

Temperatures this afternoon will likely spike ahead of the front
into the lower 30s but then temperatures will fall markedly late
this afternoon and into the evening hours with brisk NW winds.
Evening temps will drop quickly into the teens pushing wind chills
down near zero.  Overnight lows will likely drop into the upper
single digits across the north with lower teens across the central
and southern sections.  Dry and cold conditions are expected on
Saturday with high temperatures warming into the 15-20 degree range
across southern IN and northern KY. Slightly warmer readings will be
found across southern KY with most locations warming into the 19-24
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 345 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

=======================================
Long Term Synopsis
=======================================

Upper air pattern across the CONUS is expected to undergo
amplification early next week as the northern branch of the jet
stream strengthens and moves into the central US.  Initial long wave
trough over the eastern US will move out over the weekend with a
small window of ridging holding sway across the Ohio Valley.  As the
upper jet digs into the central CONUS a deepening trough axis will
result in surface cyclogenesis across the lower MS Valley by late
Monday.  The surface cyclone will trek across the TN Valley and then
up the eastern side of the Appalachians on Tuesday and then into New
England by midweek.  A long wave trough will remain in place across
the eastern half of the US by midweek as heights build across the
western CONUS.  The western CONUS ridge is expected to be short
lived as strong Pacific Jet will send a series of disturbances into
the Pacific northwest resulting a break down of the ridge.  A
largely zonal flow pattern is expected to develop with a flood of
milder Pacific air intruding into much of the US by the end of the
week.

=======================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
=======================================

In terms of model trends, there is increased forecast convergence
that indicates that we`ll see two weather systems affect the region
from late Saturday and through Tuesday.  The first of these will be
a fast moving perturbation moving through on Sunday followed by a
stronger/developing system for Monday into Tuesday.

Overall model trends with the first system remain generally the same
and overall forecast confidence is higher here than in previous
forecasts.  A blend of the Euro/GFS/GEM seems reasonable here
(Saturday night through Sunday night time frame).  This system will
bring a swath of light snow to the region Sunday and Sunday night.

With regards to the secondary system, the models continue to
struggle with the overall complexity of the upper level pattern.
There remains potential for the northern and southern branches of
the jet to interact and possibly phase.  In addition, the Ohio
Valley will be on the southern periphery of a pre-existing polar
airmass.  Return flow ahead of the developing system poises a
problem in terms of overrunning and the potential for mixed
precipitation. The system has yet to enter the North American upper
air network, so we expect run to run differences to continue for the
next 24 hours or so.

In terms of model trends, all of the global models have trended
slightly faster in terms of the system moving through the region.
The GFS and GEM are a bit more progressive than the Euro and have
higher QPF amounts across southern KY/northern TN through the
period.  The Euro has trended a bit more south with its QPF axis but
remains generally north of the GFS/GEM solutions.  All of the models
do show warmer air pushing northward into the region on Monday which
results in mixed precipitation issues.  Ensemble spread remains
large at this time with varying degrees of phasing and non-phasing
with the systems.  Corresponding surface tracks from the ensembles
vary as well resulting in a wide variety of p-type solutions from
the models.

For this forecast, we`re going to attempt to maintain forecast
continuity here.  We plan on utilizing a blend of the new
operational models with more emphasis from the Euro and its parallel
runs combined with the ongoing forecast.  We anticipate that the
model spreads will decrease a bit within the next 1-2 runs as the
storm system becomes properly sampled in the upper air network.
Therefore, further refinements (some of which may be significant)
are likely later today and tonight.

Forecast confidence remains low in the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame as timing issues remain with the potential for another clipper
system to impact the region Tue/Wed.  In addition, the near surface
temperature environment will be close to critical levels resulting
in the possibly of mixed precipitation continuing.

Forecast confidence does increase a bit toward the later portion of
the period given the relatively good model agreement in terms of a
moderating trend in temperatures.

=======================================
Sensible and Societal Weather Impacts
=======================================

Early in the forecast period we`ll see quiet weather conditions.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate early Sunday morning as the
first weather disturbance slides into the region from the northwest.
This will result in light snow moving through the region during the
day on Sunday with the potential for some light accumulations as
most locations will see temperatures remain at or below freezing.
Overall multi-model ensemble solutions suggest afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 20s to around 30 in the north
with lower 30s in the south.

Secondary system will begin to affect the region late Sunday night
and into Monday morning.  Model proximity soundings indicate that
precipitation should remain in the form of snow Sunday night and into
the early morning hours on Monday.  However, the northward transport
of warmer air aloft ahead of the developing surface system poses a
risk of mixed precipitation across portions of the region.

The crux of the forecast will be on the depth of the cold air in the
near surface environment and the evolution and track of the surface
cyclone.  Given the current data, the most likely scenario still
looks to be a snow to wintry mix event during the day on Monday. Our
northern areas will likely stay snow for a bit longer as the depth
of the cold air looks to be larger across the north with a more
shallow layer down across the south.  While it is far too early to
speculate on snowfall amounts, the amount of moisture being
transported northward from the Gulf could result in significant
amounts of snowfall for portions of our region.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, we`ll see another
clipper system cruise through Tue/Wed.  Depending on the timing,
this system could bring a mix of rain/snow to the region.  The
models do agree that a moderating trend in temperatures will occur
by late week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 606 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Snow will impact BWG this morning while SDF/LEX lie on the northern
edge of this system and likely will just see flurries or very light
snow showers. At BWG, plan on brief periods of IFR conditions
through 15z or so, then the snow will move east of the airport. In
its wake, MVFR to low-end VFR ceilings will remain. At SDF/LEX,
ceilings will lower to around 3-4 kft.

This afternoon a front will pass through, bringing gusty west winds
to near 20 kts at all sites. Scattered snow showers are possible
between 21 and 00z at SDF/LEX, some of which could bring short
periods of restrictions. Confidence in coverage isn`t high enough at
this time to prevail in the TAF.

Lingering mid to low level moisture will keep clouds around this
evening, but as high pressure builds in tonight, these should
scatter out. Winds will remain out of the west/northwest at 10 kts
or so tonight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning
     for KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 121322
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
822 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 820 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Back edge of the deeper moisture causing this morning`s snows is
about to enter our northwest forecast area. This edge should clear
our southeastern counties within an hour of the expiration of the
winter weather advisory.  Already have had a few reports of an inch
of snow and totals likely will range from 0.5-2 inches in the
advisory area. Freshened up the grids with latest radar trends and
observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Early morning IR satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across the region.  Temperatures ranged
from the low-mid 20s across the Bluegrass region to the upper 20s
out near the heritage corridor (I-65 corridor) and out across our
southwest sections.

Regional radar imagery shows an area of snow showers out across
eastern MO and Central/southern IL.  This is associated with a mid-
level vorticity perturbation along with a jet streak pushing in from
the northwest.  Latest high-res short term models continue to
suggest that this activity will move east-southeast this morning
with an axis of snow pushing through western and southern KY.  We
still think a period of 2-4 hours of moderate snow will occur with
this system as we have a good period of lift through the DGZ.  The
current Winter Weather Advisory area still looks very good and no
changes will be made to the ongoing headline.  Within this advisory
area, 3/4-1 inch of snow looks likely though some locations that get
under a moderate-heavy period of precip could see isolated higher
amounts.  This snow occurring around or shortly after sunrise will
negatively impact the morning commute across southern KY.  Further
north, antecedent dry air in place will likely result in snow
flurries and lighter intensity snow showers.  A dusting to a half of
an inch will be possible but the major impacts will be south of the
WK and BG Parkways.  We plan on continuing to highlight the north
with a Special Weather Statement.

We`re likely to see a brief lull in precipitation by late morning as
the upper air perturbation and jet streak moves east-southeast and
away from the region.  Colder air will push into the region aloft as
a surface front pushes through the region.  The colder air aloft
will steepen lapse rates fairly well so convective snow showers are
likely to develop across the region.  The model trends though have
suggested lesser moisture available this afternoon, so areal
coverage may not be as widespread as previous forecasts indicated.
In any case, some light accumulations of snow will be possible
across the region this afternoon...with the far NE and Bluegrass
region being the most favored.

Temperatures this afternoon will likely spike ahead of the front
into the lower 30s but then temperatures will fall markedly late
this afternoon and into the evening hours with brisk NW winds.
Evening temps will drop quickly into the teens pushing wind chills
down near zero.  Overnight lows will likely drop into the upper
single digits across the north with lower teens across the central
and southern sections.  Dry and cold conditions are expected on
Saturday with high temperatures warming into the 15-20 degree range
across southern IN and northern KY. Slightly warmer readings will be
found across southern KY with most locations warming into the 19-24
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 345 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

=======================================
Long Term Synopsis
=======================================

Upper air pattern across the CONUS is expected to undergo
amplification early next week as the northern branch of the jet
stream strengthens and moves into the central US.  Initial long wave
trough over the eastern US will move out over the weekend with a
small window of ridging holding sway across the Ohio Valley.  As the
upper jet digs into the central CONUS a deepening trough axis will
result in surface cyclogenesis across the lower MS Valley by late
Monday.  The surface cyclone will trek across the TN Valley and then
up the eastern side of the Appalachians on Tuesday and then into New
England by midweek.  A long wave trough will remain in place across
the eastern half of the US by midweek as heights build across the
western CONUS.  The western CONUS ridge is expected to be short
lived as strong Pacific Jet will send a series of disturbances into
the Pacific northwest resulting a break down of the ridge.  A
largely zonal flow pattern is expected to develop with a flood of
milder Pacific air intruding into much of the US by the end of the
week.

=======================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
=======================================

In terms of model trends, there is increased forecast convergence
that indicates that we`ll see two weather systems affect the region
from late Saturday and through Tuesday.  The first of these will be
a fast moving perturbation moving through on Sunday followed by a
stronger/developing system for Monday into Tuesday.

Overall model trends with the first system remain generally the same
and overall forecast confidence is higher here than in previous
forecasts.  A blend of the Euro/GFS/GEM seems reasonable here
(Saturday night through Sunday night time frame).  This system will
bring a swath of light snow to the region Sunday and Sunday night.

With regards to the secondary system, the models continue to
struggle with the overall complexity of the upper level pattern.
There remains potential for the northern and southern branches of
the jet to interact and possibly phase.  In addition, the Ohio
Valley will be on the southern periphery of a pre-existing polar
airmass.  Return flow ahead of the developing system poises a
problem in terms of overrunning and the potential for mixed
precipitation. The system has yet to enter the North American upper
air network, so we expect run to run differences to continue for the
next 24 hours or so.

In terms of model trends, all of the global models have trended
slightly faster in terms of the system moving through the region.
The GFS and GEM are a bit more progressive than the Euro and have
higher QPF amounts across southern KY/northern TN through the
period.  The Euro has trended a bit more south with its QPF axis but
remains generally north of the GFS/GEM solutions.  All of the models
do show warmer air pushing northward into the region on Monday which
results in mixed precipitation issues.  Ensemble spread remains
large at this time with varying degrees of phasing and non-phasing
with the systems.  Corresponding surface tracks from the ensembles
vary as well resulting in a wide variety of p-type solutions from
the models.

For this forecast, we`re going to attempt to maintain forecast
continuity here.  We plan on utilizing a blend of the new
operational models with more emphasis from the Euro and its parallel
runs combined with the ongoing forecast.  We anticipate that the
model spreads will decrease a bit within the next 1-2 runs as the
storm system becomes properly sampled in the upper air network.
Therefore, further refinements (some of which may be significant)
are likely later today and tonight.

Forecast confidence remains low in the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame as timing issues remain with the potential for another clipper
system to impact the region Tue/Wed.  In addition, the near surface
temperature environment will be close to critical levels resulting
in the possibly of mixed precipitation continuing.

Forecast confidence does increase a bit toward the later portion of
the period given the relatively good model agreement in terms of a
moderating trend in temperatures.

=======================================
Sensible and Societal Weather Impacts
=======================================

Early in the forecast period we`ll see quiet weather conditions.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate early Sunday morning as the
first weather disturbance slides into the region from the northwest.
This will result in light snow moving through the region during the
day on Sunday with the potential for some light accumulations as
most locations will see temperatures remain at or below freezing.
Overall multi-model ensemble solutions suggest afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 20s to around 30 in the north
with lower 30s in the south.

Secondary system will begin to affect the region late Sunday night
and into Monday morning.  Model proximity soundings indicate that
precipitation should remain in the form of snow Sunday night and into
the early morning hours on Monday.  However, the northward transport
of warmer air aloft ahead of the developing surface system poses a
risk of mixed precipitation across portions of the region.

The crux of the forecast will be on the depth of the cold air in the
near surface environment and the evolution and track of the surface
cyclone.  Given the current data, the most likely scenario still
looks to be a snow to wintry mix event during the day on Monday. Our
northern areas will likely stay snow for a bit longer as the depth
of the cold air looks to be larger across the north with a more
shallow layer down across the south.  While it is far too early to
speculate on snowfall amounts, the amount of moisture being
transported northward from the Gulf could result in significant
amounts of snowfall for portions of our region.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, we`ll see another
clipper system cruise through Tue/Wed.  Depending on the timing,
this system could bring a mix of rain/snow to the region.  The
models do agree that a moderating trend in temperatures will occur
by late week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 606 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Snow will impact BWG this morning while SDF/LEX lie on the northern
edge of this system and likely will just see flurries or very light
snow showers. At BWG, plan on brief periods of IFR conditions
through 15z or so, then the snow will move east of the airport. In
its wake, MVFR to low-end VFR ceilings will remain. At SDF/LEX,
ceilings will lower to around 3-4 kft.

This afternoon a front will pass through, bringing gusty west winds
to near 20 kts at all sites. Scattered snow showers are possible
between 21 and 00z at SDF/LEX, some of which could bring short
periods of restrictions. Confidence in coverage isn`t high enough at
this time to prevail in the TAF.

Lingering mid to low level moisture will keep clouds around this
evening, but as high pressure builds in tonight, these should
scatter out. Winds will remain out of the west/northwest at 10 kts
or so tonight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning
     for KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......ZT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 121117
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
617 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Early morning IR satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across the region.  Temperatures ranged
from the low-mid 20s across the Bluegrass region to the upper 20s
out near the heritage corridor (I-65 corridor) and out across our
southwest sections.

Regional radar imagery shows an area of snow showers out across
eastern MO and Central/southern IL.  This is associated with a mid-
level vorticity perturbation along with a jet streak pushing in from
the northwest.  Latest high-res short term models continue to
suggest that this activity will move east-southeast this morning
with an axis of snow pushing through western and southern KY.  We
still think a period of 2-4 hours of moderate snow will occur with
this system as we have a good period of lift through the DGZ.  The
current Winter Weather Advisory area still looks very good and no
changes will be made to the ongoing headline.  Within this advisory
area, 3/4-1 inch of snow looks likely though some locations that get
under a moderate-heavy period of precip could see isolated higher
amounts.  This snow occurring around or shortly after sunrise will
negatively impact the morning commute across southern KY.  Further
north, antecedent dry air in place will likely result in snow
flurries and lighter intensity snow showers.  A dusting to a half of
an inch will be possible but the major impacts will be south of the
WK and BG Parkways.  We plan on continuing to highlight the north
with a Special Weather Statement.

We`re likely to see a brief lull in precipitation by late morning as
the upper air perturbation and jet streak moves east-southeast and
away from the region.  Colder air will push into the region aloft as
a surface front pushes through the region.  The colder air aloft
will steepen lapse rates fairly well so convective snow showers are
likely to develop across the region.  The model trends though have
suggested lesser moisture available this afternoon, so areal
coverage may not be as widespread as previous forecasts indicated.
In any case, some light accumulations of snow will be possible
across the region this afternoon...with the far NE and Bluegrass
region being the most favored.

Temperatures this afternoon will likely spike ahead of the front
into the lower 30s but then temperatures will fall markedly late
this afternoon and into the evening hours with brisk NW winds.
Evening temps will drop quickly into the teens pushing wind chills
down near zero.  Overnight lows will likely drop into the upper
single digits across the north with lower teens across the central
and southern sections.  Dry and cold conditions are expected on
Saturday with high temperatures warming into the 15-20 degree range
across southern IN and northern KY. Slightly warmer readings will be
found across southern KY with most locations warming into the 19-24
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 345 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

=======================================
Long Term Synopsis
=======================================

Upper air pattern across the CONUS is expected to undergo
amplification early next week as the northern branch of the jet
stream strengthens and moves into the central US.  Initial long wave
trough over the eastern US will move out over the weekend with a
small window of ridging holding sway across the Ohio Valley.  As the
upper jet digs into the central CONUS a deepening trough axis will
result in surface cyclogenesis across the lower MS Valley by late
Monday.  The surface cyclone will trek across the TN Valley and then
up the eastern side of the Appalachians on Tuesday and then into New
England by midweek.  A long wave trough will remain in place across
the eastern half of the US by midweek as heights build across the
western CONUS.  The western CONUS ridge is expected to be short
lived as strong Pacific Jet will send a series of disturbances into
the Pacific northwest resulting a break down of the ridge.  A
largely zonal flow pattern is expected to develop with a flood of
milder Pacific air intruding into much of the US by the end of the
week.

=======================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
=======================================

In terms of model trends, there is increased forecast convergence
that indicates that we`ll see two weather systems affect the region
from late Saturday and through Tuesday.  The first of these will be
a fast moving perturbation moving through on Sunday followed by a
stronger/developing system for Monday into Tuesday.

Overall model trends with the first system remain generally the same
and overall forecast confidence is higher here than in previous
forecasts.  A blend of the Euro/GFS/GEM seems reasonable here
(Saturday night through Sunday night time frame).  This system will
bring a swath of light snow to the region Sunday and Sunday night.

With regards to the secondary system, the models continue to
struggle with the overall complexity of the upper level pattern.
There remains potential for the northern and southern branches of
the jet to interact and possibly phase.  In addition, the Ohio
Valley will be on the southern periphery of a pre-existing polar
airmass.  Return flow ahead of the developing system poises a
problem in terms of overrunning and the potential for mixed
precipitation. The system has yet to enter the North American upper
air network, so we expect run to run differences to continue for the
next 24 hours or so.

In terms of model trends, all of the global models have trended
slightly faster in terms of the system moving through the region.
The GFS and GEM are a bit more progressive than the Euro and have
higher QPF amounts across southern KY/northern TN through the
period.  The Euro has trended a bit more south with its QPF axis but
remains generally north of the GFS/GEM solutions.  All of the models
do show warmer air pushing northward into the region on Monday which
results in mixed precipitation issues.  Ensemble spread remains
large at this time with varying degrees of phasing and non-phasing
with the systems.  Corresponding surface tracks from the ensembles
vary as well resulting in a wide variety of p-type solutions from
the models.

For this forecast, we`re going to attempt to maintain forecast
continuity here.  We plan on utilizing a blend of the new
operational models with more emphasis from the Euro and its parallel
runs combined with the ongoing forecast.  We anticipate that the
model spreads will decrease a bit within the next 1-2 runs as the
storm system becomes properly sampled in the upper air network.
Therefore, further refinements (some of which may be significant)
are likely later today and tonight.

Forecast confidence remains low in the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame as timing issues remain with the potential for another clipper
system to impact the region Tue/Wed.  In addition, the near surface
temperature environment will be close to critical levels resulting
in the possibly of mixed precipitation continuing.

Forecast confidence does increase a bit toward the later portion of
the period given the relatively good model agreement in terms of a
moderating trend in temperatures.

=======================================
Sensible and Societal Weather Impacts
=======================================

Early in the forecast period we`ll see quiet weather conditions.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate early Sunday morning as the
first weather disturbance slides into the region from the northwest.
This will result in light snow moving through the region during the
day on Sunday with the potential for some light accumulations as
most locations will see temperatures remain at or below freezing.
Overall multi-model ensemble solutions suggest afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 20s to around 30 in the north
with lower 30s in the south.

Secondary system will begin to affect the region late Sunday night
and into Monday morning.  Model proximity soundings indicate that
precipitation should remain in the form of snow Sunday night and into
the early morning hours on Monday.  However, the northward transport
of warmer air aloft ahead of the developing surface system poses a
risk of mixed precipitation across portions of the region.

The crux of the forecast will be on the depth of the cold air in the
near surface environment and the evolution and track of the surface
cyclone.  Given the current data, the most likely scenario still
looks to be a snow to wintry mix event during the day on Monday. Our
northern areas will likely stay snow for a bit longer as the depth
of the cold air looks to be larger across the north with a more
shallow layer down across the south.  While it is far too early to
speculate on snowfall amounts, the amount of moisture being
transported northward from the Gulf could result in significant
amounts of snowfall for portions of our region.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, we`ll see another
clipper system cruise through Tue/Wed.  Depending on the timing,
this system could bring a mix of rain/snow to the region.  The
models do agree that a moderating trend in temperatures will occur
by late week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 606 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Snow will impact BWG this morning while SDF/LEX lie on the northern
edge of this system and likely will just see flurries or very light
snow showers. At BWG, plan on brief periods of IFR conditions
through 15z or so, then the snow will move east of the airport. In
its wake, MVFR to low-end VFR ceilings will remain. At SDF/LEX,
ceilings will lower to around 3-4 kft.

This afternoon a front will pass through, bringing gusty west winds
to near 20 kts at all sites. Scattered snow showers are possible
between 21 and 00z at SDF/LEX, some of which could bring short
periods of restrictions. Confidence in coverage isn`t high enough at
this time to prevail in the TAF.

Lingering mid to low level moisture will keep clouds around this
evening, but as high pressure builds in tonight, these should
scatter out. Winds will remain out of the west/northwest at 10 kts
or so tonight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning
     for KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........ZT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 121117
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
617 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Early morning IR satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across the region.  Temperatures ranged
from the low-mid 20s across the Bluegrass region to the upper 20s
out near the heritage corridor (I-65 corridor) and out across our
southwest sections.

Regional radar imagery shows an area of snow showers out across
eastern MO and Central/southern IL.  This is associated with a mid-
level vorticity perturbation along with a jet streak pushing in from
the northwest.  Latest high-res short term models continue to
suggest that this activity will move east-southeast this morning
with an axis of snow pushing through western and southern KY.  We
still think a period of 2-4 hours of moderate snow will occur with
this system as we have a good period of lift through the DGZ.  The
current Winter Weather Advisory area still looks very good and no
changes will be made to the ongoing headline.  Within this advisory
area, 3/4-1 inch of snow looks likely though some locations that get
under a moderate-heavy period of precip could see isolated higher
amounts.  This snow occurring around or shortly after sunrise will
negatively impact the morning commute across southern KY.  Further
north, antecedent dry air in place will likely result in snow
flurries and lighter intensity snow showers.  A dusting to a half of
an inch will be possible but the major impacts will be south of the
WK and BG Parkways.  We plan on continuing to highlight the north
with a Special Weather Statement.

We`re likely to see a brief lull in precipitation by late morning as
the upper air perturbation and jet streak moves east-southeast and
away from the region.  Colder air will push into the region aloft as
a surface front pushes through the region.  The colder air aloft
will steepen lapse rates fairly well so convective snow showers are
likely to develop across the region.  The model trends though have
suggested lesser moisture available this afternoon, so areal
coverage may not be as widespread as previous forecasts indicated.
In any case, some light accumulations of snow will be possible
across the region this afternoon...with the far NE and Bluegrass
region being the most favored.

Temperatures this afternoon will likely spike ahead of the front
into the lower 30s but then temperatures will fall markedly late
this afternoon and into the evening hours with brisk NW winds.
Evening temps will drop quickly into the teens pushing wind chills
down near zero.  Overnight lows will likely drop into the upper
single digits across the north with lower teens across the central
and southern sections.  Dry and cold conditions are expected on
Saturday with high temperatures warming into the 15-20 degree range
across southern IN and northern KY. Slightly warmer readings will be
found across southern KY with most locations warming into the 19-24
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 345 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

=======================================
Long Term Synopsis
=======================================

Upper air pattern across the CONUS is expected to undergo
amplification early next week as the northern branch of the jet
stream strengthens and moves into the central US.  Initial long wave
trough over the eastern US will move out over the weekend with a
small window of ridging holding sway across the Ohio Valley.  As the
upper jet digs into the central CONUS a deepening trough axis will
result in surface cyclogenesis across the lower MS Valley by late
Monday.  The surface cyclone will trek across the TN Valley and then
up the eastern side of the Appalachians on Tuesday and then into New
England by midweek.  A long wave trough will remain in place across
the eastern half of the US by midweek as heights build across the
western CONUS.  The western CONUS ridge is expected to be short
lived as strong Pacific Jet will send a series of disturbances into
the Pacific northwest resulting a break down of the ridge.  A
largely zonal flow pattern is expected to develop with a flood of
milder Pacific air intruding into much of the US by the end of the
week.

=======================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
=======================================

In terms of model trends, there is increased forecast convergence
that indicates that we`ll see two weather systems affect the region
from late Saturday and through Tuesday.  The first of these will be
a fast moving perturbation moving through on Sunday followed by a
stronger/developing system for Monday into Tuesday.

Overall model trends with the first system remain generally the same
and overall forecast confidence is higher here than in previous
forecasts.  A blend of the Euro/GFS/GEM seems reasonable here
(Saturday night through Sunday night time frame).  This system will
bring a swath of light snow to the region Sunday and Sunday night.

With regards to the secondary system, the models continue to
struggle with the overall complexity of the upper level pattern.
There remains potential for the northern and southern branches of
the jet to interact and possibly phase.  In addition, the Ohio
Valley will be on the southern periphery of a pre-existing polar
airmass.  Return flow ahead of the developing system poises a
problem in terms of overrunning and the potential for mixed
precipitation. The system has yet to enter the North American upper
air network, so we expect run to run differences to continue for the
next 24 hours or so.

In terms of model trends, all of the global models have trended
slightly faster in terms of the system moving through the region.
The GFS and GEM are a bit more progressive than the Euro and have
higher QPF amounts across southern KY/northern TN through the
period.  The Euro has trended a bit more south with its QPF axis but
remains generally north of the GFS/GEM solutions.  All of the models
do show warmer air pushing northward into the region on Monday which
results in mixed precipitation issues.  Ensemble spread remains
large at this time with varying degrees of phasing and non-phasing
with the systems.  Corresponding surface tracks from the ensembles
vary as well resulting in a wide variety of p-type solutions from
the models.

For this forecast, we`re going to attempt to maintain forecast
continuity here.  We plan on utilizing a blend of the new
operational models with more emphasis from the Euro and its parallel
runs combined with the ongoing forecast.  We anticipate that the
model spreads will decrease a bit within the next 1-2 runs as the
storm system becomes properly sampled in the upper air network.
Therefore, further refinements (some of which may be significant)
are likely later today and tonight.

Forecast confidence remains low in the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame as timing issues remain with the potential for another clipper
system to impact the region Tue/Wed.  In addition, the near surface
temperature environment will be close to critical levels resulting
in the possibly of mixed precipitation continuing.

Forecast confidence does increase a bit toward the later portion of
the period given the relatively good model agreement in terms of a
moderating trend in temperatures.

=======================================
Sensible and Societal Weather Impacts
=======================================

Early in the forecast period we`ll see quiet weather conditions.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate early Sunday morning as the
first weather disturbance slides into the region from the northwest.
This will result in light snow moving through the region during the
day on Sunday with the potential for some light accumulations as
most locations will see temperatures remain at or below freezing.
Overall multi-model ensemble solutions suggest afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 20s to around 30 in the north
with lower 30s in the south.

Secondary system will begin to affect the region late Sunday night
and into Monday morning.  Model proximity soundings indicate that
precipitation should remain in the form of snow Sunday night and into
the early morning hours on Monday.  However, the northward transport
of warmer air aloft ahead of the developing surface system poses a
risk of mixed precipitation across portions of the region.

The crux of the forecast will be on the depth of the cold air in the
near surface environment and the evolution and track of the surface
cyclone.  Given the current data, the most likely scenario still
looks to be a snow to wintry mix event during the day on Monday. Our
northern areas will likely stay snow for a bit longer as the depth
of the cold air looks to be larger across the north with a more
shallow layer down across the south.  While it is far too early to
speculate on snowfall amounts, the amount of moisture being
transported northward from the Gulf could result in significant
amounts of snowfall for portions of our region.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, we`ll see another
clipper system cruise through Tue/Wed.  Depending on the timing,
this system could bring a mix of rain/snow to the region.  The
models do agree that a moderating trend in temperatures will occur
by late week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 606 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Snow will impact BWG this morning while SDF/LEX lie on the northern
edge of this system and likely will just see flurries or very light
snow showers. At BWG, plan on brief periods of IFR conditions
through 15z or so, then the snow will move east of the airport. In
its wake, MVFR to low-end VFR ceilings will remain. At SDF/LEX,
ceilings will lower to around 3-4 kft.

This afternoon a front will pass through, bringing gusty west winds
to near 20 kts at all sites. Scattered snow showers are possible
between 21 and 00z at SDF/LEX, some of which could bring short
periods of restrictions. Confidence in coverage isn`t high enough at
this time to prevail in the TAF.

Lingering mid to low level moisture will keep clouds around this
evening, but as high pressure builds in tonight, these should
scatter out. Winds will remain out of the west/northwest at 10 kts
or so tonight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning
     for KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 121117
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
617 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Early morning IR satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across the region.  Temperatures ranged
from the low-mid 20s across the Bluegrass region to the upper 20s
out near the heritage corridor (I-65 corridor) and out across our
southwest sections.

Regional radar imagery shows an area of snow showers out across
eastern MO and Central/southern IL.  This is associated with a mid-
level vorticity perturbation along with a jet streak pushing in from
the northwest.  Latest high-res short term models continue to
suggest that this activity will move east-southeast this morning
with an axis of snow pushing through western and southern KY.  We
still think a period of 2-4 hours of moderate snow will occur with
this system as we have a good period of lift through the DGZ.  The
current Winter Weather Advisory area still looks very good and no
changes will be made to the ongoing headline.  Within this advisory
area, 3/4-1 inch of snow looks likely though some locations that get
under a moderate-heavy period of precip could see isolated higher
amounts.  This snow occurring around or shortly after sunrise will
negatively impact the morning commute across southern KY.  Further
north, antecedent dry air in place will likely result in snow
flurries and lighter intensity snow showers.  A dusting to a half of
an inch will be possible but the major impacts will be south of the
WK and BG Parkways.  We plan on continuing to highlight the north
with a Special Weather Statement.

We`re likely to see a brief lull in precipitation by late morning as
the upper air perturbation and jet streak moves east-southeast and
away from the region.  Colder air will push into the region aloft as
a surface front pushes through the region.  The colder air aloft
will steepen lapse rates fairly well so convective snow showers are
likely to develop across the region.  The model trends though have
suggested lesser moisture available this afternoon, so areal
coverage may not be as widespread as previous forecasts indicated.
In any case, some light accumulations of snow will be possible
across the region this afternoon...with the far NE and Bluegrass
region being the most favored.

Temperatures this afternoon will likely spike ahead of the front
into the lower 30s but then temperatures will fall markedly late
this afternoon and into the evening hours with brisk NW winds.
Evening temps will drop quickly into the teens pushing wind chills
down near zero.  Overnight lows will likely drop into the upper
single digits across the north with lower teens across the central
and southern sections.  Dry and cold conditions are expected on
Saturday with high temperatures warming into the 15-20 degree range
across southern IN and northern KY. Slightly warmer readings will be
found across southern KY with most locations warming into the 19-24
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 345 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

=======================================
Long Term Synopsis
=======================================

Upper air pattern across the CONUS is expected to undergo
amplification early next week as the northern branch of the jet
stream strengthens and moves into the central US.  Initial long wave
trough over the eastern US will move out over the weekend with a
small window of ridging holding sway across the Ohio Valley.  As the
upper jet digs into the central CONUS a deepening trough axis will
result in surface cyclogenesis across the lower MS Valley by late
Monday.  The surface cyclone will trek across the TN Valley and then
up the eastern side of the Appalachians on Tuesday and then into New
England by midweek.  A long wave trough will remain in place across
the eastern half of the US by midweek as heights build across the
western CONUS.  The western CONUS ridge is expected to be short
lived as strong Pacific Jet will send a series of disturbances into
the Pacific northwest resulting a break down of the ridge.  A
largely zonal flow pattern is expected to develop with a flood of
milder Pacific air intruding into much of the US by the end of the
week.

=======================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
=======================================

In terms of model trends, there is increased forecast convergence
that indicates that we`ll see two weather systems affect the region
from late Saturday and through Tuesday.  The first of these will be
a fast moving perturbation moving through on Sunday followed by a
stronger/developing system for Monday into Tuesday.

Overall model trends with the first system remain generally the same
and overall forecast confidence is higher here than in previous
forecasts.  A blend of the Euro/GFS/GEM seems reasonable here
(Saturday night through Sunday night time frame).  This system will
bring a swath of light snow to the region Sunday and Sunday night.

With regards to the secondary system, the models continue to
struggle with the overall complexity of the upper level pattern.
There remains potential for the northern and southern branches of
the jet to interact and possibly phase.  In addition, the Ohio
Valley will be on the southern periphery of a pre-existing polar
airmass.  Return flow ahead of the developing system poises a
problem in terms of overrunning and the potential for mixed
precipitation. The system has yet to enter the North American upper
air network, so we expect run to run differences to continue for the
next 24 hours or so.

In terms of model trends, all of the global models have trended
slightly faster in terms of the system moving through the region.
The GFS and GEM are a bit more progressive than the Euro and have
higher QPF amounts across southern KY/northern TN through the
period.  The Euro has trended a bit more south with its QPF axis but
remains generally north of the GFS/GEM solutions.  All of the models
do show warmer air pushing northward into the region on Monday which
results in mixed precipitation issues.  Ensemble spread remains
large at this time with varying degrees of phasing and non-phasing
with the systems.  Corresponding surface tracks from the ensembles
vary as well resulting in a wide variety of p-type solutions from
the models.

For this forecast, we`re going to attempt to maintain forecast
continuity here.  We plan on utilizing a blend of the new
operational models with more emphasis from the Euro and its parallel
runs combined with the ongoing forecast.  We anticipate that the
model spreads will decrease a bit within the next 1-2 runs as the
storm system becomes properly sampled in the upper air network.
Therefore, further refinements (some of which may be significant)
are likely later today and tonight.

Forecast confidence remains low in the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame as timing issues remain with the potential for another clipper
system to impact the region Tue/Wed.  In addition, the near surface
temperature environment will be close to critical levels resulting
in the possibly of mixed precipitation continuing.

Forecast confidence does increase a bit toward the later portion of
the period given the relatively good model agreement in terms of a
moderating trend in temperatures.

=======================================
Sensible and Societal Weather Impacts
=======================================

Early in the forecast period we`ll see quiet weather conditions.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate early Sunday morning as the
first weather disturbance slides into the region from the northwest.
This will result in light snow moving through the region during the
day on Sunday with the potential for some light accumulations as
most locations will see temperatures remain at or below freezing.
Overall multi-model ensemble solutions suggest afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 20s to around 30 in the north
with lower 30s in the south.

Secondary system will begin to affect the region late Sunday night
and into Monday morning.  Model proximity soundings indicate that
precipitation should remain in the form of snow Sunday night and into
the early morning hours on Monday.  However, the northward transport
of warmer air aloft ahead of the developing surface system poses a
risk of mixed precipitation across portions of the region.

The crux of the forecast will be on the depth of the cold air in the
near surface environment and the evolution and track of the surface
cyclone.  Given the current data, the most likely scenario still
looks to be a snow to wintry mix event during the day on Monday. Our
northern areas will likely stay snow for a bit longer as the depth
of the cold air looks to be larger across the north with a more
shallow layer down across the south.  While it is far too early to
speculate on snowfall amounts, the amount of moisture being
transported northward from the Gulf could result in significant
amounts of snowfall for portions of our region.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, we`ll see another
clipper system cruise through Tue/Wed.  Depending on the timing,
this system could bring a mix of rain/snow to the region.  The
models do agree that a moderating trend in temperatures will occur
by late week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 606 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Snow will impact BWG this morning while SDF/LEX lie on the northern
edge of this system and likely will just see flurries or very light
snow showers. At BWG, plan on brief periods of IFR conditions
through 15z or so, then the snow will move east of the airport. In
its wake, MVFR to low-end VFR ceilings will remain. At SDF/LEX,
ceilings will lower to around 3-4 kft.

This afternoon a front will pass through, bringing gusty west winds
to near 20 kts at all sites. Scattered snow showers are possible
between 21 and 00z at SDF/LEX, some of which could bring short
periods of restrictions. Confidence in coverage isn`t high enough at
this time to prevail in the TAF.

Lingering mid to low level moisture will keep clouds around this
evening, but as high pressure builds in tonight, these should
scatter out. Winds will remain out of the west/northwest at 10 kts
or so tonight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning
     for KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 120846
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
346 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

Early morning IR satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across the region.  Temperatures ranged
from the low-mid 20s across the Bluegrass region to the upper 20s
out near the heritage corridor (I-65 corridor) and out across our
southwest sections.

Regional radar imagery shows an area of snow showers out across
eastern MO and Central/southern IL.  This is associated with a mid-
level vorticity perturbation along with a jet streak pushing in from
the northwest.  Latest high-res short term models continue to
suggest that this activity will move east-southeast this morning
with an axis of snow pushing through western and southern KY.  We
still think a period of 2-4 hours of moderate snow will occur with
this system as we have a good period of lift through the DGZ.  The
current Winter Weather Advisory area still looks very good and no
changes will be made to the ongoing headline.  Within this advisory
area, 3/4-1 inch of snow looks likely though some locations that get
under a moderate-heavy period of precip could see isolated higher
amounts.  This snow occurring around or shortly after sunrise will
negatively impact the morning commute across southern KY.  Further
north, antecedent dry air in place will likely result in snow
flurries and lighter intensity snow showers.  A dusting to a half of
an inch will be possible but the major impacts will be south of the
WK and BG Parkways.  We plan on continuing to highlight the north
with a Special Weather Statement.

We`re likely to see a brief lull in precipitation by late morning as
the upper air perturbation and jet streak moves east-southeast and
away from the region.  Colder air will push into the region aloft as
a surface front pushes through the region.  The colder air aloft
will steepen lapse rates fairly well so convective snow showers are
likely to develop across the region.  The model trends though have
suggested lesser moisture available this afternoon, so areal
coverage may not be as widespread as previous forecasts indicated.
In any case, some light accumulations of snow will be possible
across the region this afternoon...with the far NE and Bluegrass
region being the most favored.

Temperatures this afternoon will likely spike ahead of the front
into the lower 30s but then temperatures will fall markedly late
this afternoon and into the evening hours with brisk NW winds.
Evening temps will drop quickly into the teens pushing wind chills
down near zero.  Overnight lows will likely drop into the upper
single digits across the north with lower teens across the central
and southern sections.  Dry and cold conditions are expected on
Saturday with high temperatures warming into the 15-20 degree range
across southern IN and northern KY. Slightly warmer readings will be
found across southern KY with most locations warming into the 19-24
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 345 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

...POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

=======================================
Long Term Synopsis
=======================================

Upper air pattern across the CONUS is expected to undergo
amplification early next week as the northern branch of the jet
stream strengthens and moves into the central US.  Initial long wave
trough over the eastern US will move out over the weekend with a
small window of ridging holding sway across the Ohio Valley.  As the
upper jet digs into the central CONUS a deepening trough axis will
result in surface cyclogenesis across the lower MS Valley by late
Monday.  The surface cyclone will trek across the TN Valley and then
up the eastern side of the Appalachians on Tuesday and then into New
England by midweek.  A long wave trough will remain in place across
the eastern half of the US by midweek as heights build across the
western CONUS.  The western CONUS ridge is expected to be short
lived as strong Pacific Jet will send a series of disturbances into
the Pacific northwest resulting a break down of the ridge.  A
largely zonal flow pattern is expected to develop with a flood of
milder Pacific air intruding into much of the US by the end of the
week.

=======================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
=======================================

In terms of model trends, there is increased forecast convergence
that indicates that we`ll see two weather systems affect the region
from late Saturday and through Tuesday.  The first of these will be
a fast moving perturbation moving through on Sunday followed by a
stronger/developing system for Monday into Tuesday.

Overall model trends with the first system remain generally the same
and overall forecast confidence is higher here than in previous
forecasts.  A blend of the Euro/GFS/GEM seems reasonable here
(Saturday night through Sunday night time frame).  This system will
bring a swath of light snow to the region Sunday and Sunday night.

With regards to the secondary system, the models continue to
struggle with the overall complexity of the upper level pattern.
There remains potential for the northern and southern branches of
the jet to interact and possibly phase.  In addition, the Ohio
Valley will be on the southern periphery of a pre-existing polar
airmass.  Return flow ahead of the developing system poises a
problem in terms of overrunning and the potential for mixed
precipitation. The system has yet to enter the North American upper
air network, so we expect run to run differences to continue for the
next 24 hours or so.

In terms of model trends, all of the global models have trended
slightly faster in terms of the system moving through the region.
The GFS and GEM are a bit more progressive than the Euro and have
higher QPF amounts across southern KY/northern TN through the
period.  The Euro has trended a bit more south with its QPF axis but
remains generally north of the GFS/GEM solutions.  All of the models
do show warmer air pushing northward into the region on Monday which
results in mixed precipitation issues.  Ensemble spread remains
large at this time with varying degrees of phasing and non-phasing
with the systems.  Corresponding surface tracks from the ensembles
vary as well resulting in a wide variety of p-type solutions from
the models.

For this forecast, we`re going to attempt to maintain forecast
continuity here.  We plan on utilizing a blend of the new
operational models with more emphasis from the Euro and its parallel
runs combined with the ongoing forecast.  We anticipate that the
model spreads will decrease a bit within the next 1-2 runs as the
storm system becomes properly sampled in the upper air network.
Therefore, further refinements (some of which may be significant)
are likely later today and tonight.

Forecast confidence remains low in the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame as timing issues remain with the potential for another clipper
system to impact the region Tue/Wed.  In addition, the near surface
temperature environment will be close to critical levels resulting
in the possibly of mixed precipitation continuing.

Forecast confidence does increase a bit toward the later portion of
the period given the relatively good model agreement in terms of a
moderating trend in temperatures.

=======================================
Sensible and Societal Weather Impacts
=======================================

Early in the forecast period we`ll see quiet weather conditions.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate early Sunday morning as the
first weather disturbance slides into the region from the northwest.
This will result in light snow moving through the region during the
day on Sunday with the potential for some light accumulations as
most locations will see temperatures remain at or below freezing.
Overall multi-model ensemble solutions suggest afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 20s to around 30 in the north
with lower 30s in the south.

Secondary system will begin to affect the region late Sunday night
and into Monday morning.  Model proximity soundings indicate that
precipitation should remain in the form of snow Sunday night and into
the early morning hours on Monday.  However, the northward transport
of warmer air aloft ahead of the developing surface system poses a
risk of mixed precipitation across portions of the region.

The crux of the forecast will be on the depth of the cold air in the
near surface environment and the evolution and track of the surface
cyclone.  Given the current data, the most likely scenario still
looks to be a snow to wintry mix event during the day on Monday. Our
northern areas will likely stay snow for a bit longer as the depth
of the cold air looks to be larger across the north with a more
shallow layer down across the south.  While it is far too early to
speculate on snowfall amounts, the amount of moisture being
transported northward from the Gulf could result in significant
amounts of snowfall for portions of our region.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, we`ll see another
clipper system cruise through Tue/Wed.  Depending on the timing,
this system could bring a mix of rain/snow to the region.  The
models do agree that a moderating trend in temperatures will occur
by late week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

A clipper system will track through Kentucky over the course of this
TAF period. A band of light snow is likely to impact BWG between 10
and 14z with MVFR to possibly IFR conditions. Snow accumulations of
1 inch or less are expected. Meanwhile, both SDF and LEX is likely
to have flurries or very light snow showers with little aviation
impact. Ceilings will drop down into MVFR, especially under any
particular snow shower or streak at all TAF sites this morning but
the greatest confidence for restrictions is at BWG.

For this afternoon, as the Arctic front comes in, scattered snow
showers are possible at SDF/LEX. These may bring brief periods of
reduced visibility and lower ceilings, but will be short-lived at
any given time. The most likely time frame would be 21-02z.

Winds will also become gusty during the afternoon in advance and
behind the frontal passage. Gusts to 20 kts or so are expected out
of the west.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning
     for KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 120523
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1223 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

There are some light returns showing up on radar this evening, but
this is mainly virga at this time, working to saturate the
atmosphere. The latest guidance continues to suggest a band of light
accumulating snow will move in between 09-10Z across south central
Kentucky and drop a quick half an inch to an inch of snow through
mid day. The latest guidance including the NAM/HRRR/local WRF has
shifted a bit further to the south with the band of snow. In
addition, it is suggesting slightly more QPF further to the
southwest as well. Therefore, Logan and Simpson counties were added
in to the Winter Weather Advisory.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Temps are in the upper 20s to low and mid 30s across the region,
however will quickly fall back into the 20s this evening. As this
occurs, left exit region of an upper jet will slide into the
Tennessee/Green/Cumberland River Valleys, along with deeper
moisture. Latest data has shifted well to the SW with the "heaviest"
axis of snowfall overnight and focuses on the southern two or three
tiers of counties underneath the left exit region. Data shows a 2-4
hour period of good lift with saturation up through the DGZ which
would result in light to briefly moderate snow around sunrise. With
snow ratios nearing 15 to 1, expecting that snow accums could range
between a half inch and 1 inch. Will go with an impact based Winter
Weather Advisory around the morning commute across our south, in
coordination with PAH/OHX/JKL. Amounts won`t be overly impressive,
but slick spots during the morning commute are expected.

Further north, will issue an SPS where flurries and light snow will
have a harder time overcoming the drier air to the north. In this
area, a dusting to a half an inch is possible. A few slick spots
will be possible for the morning commute in these area, but not to
the extent expected further south.

After a brief lull in the late morning and early afternoon, expect
scattered snow showers to commence once again mainly across the Blue
Grass and Lake Cumberland regions. This will mainly be due to
steepening low level lapse rates and a slight upslope component
given NW surface winds. These showers should be light as moisture
will not be as deep by this time. Temperatures will top out in the
30s.

Lows Friday night drop into 10 to 15 degree range. A few upper
single digits are possible. Flurries taper off early in the evening.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Saturday and Saturday Night

Tranquil period here as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Question mark as far as how cold it gets Saturday night will be
thicker cirrus building in from the west through the night. Have
gone close to statistical guidance for lows, with readings around
10, but colder in our Bluegrass.

Sunday - Sunday Night...

Light snow accumulations are still looking likely for the Sunday
into Sunday night period. Temperatures will start off in the single
digits to lower teens in the morning, however should warm to the
upper 20s and lower 30s by afternoon. Meanwhile, atmospheric column
will saturate deeper moisture moves into the area ahead a
disturbance over the Great Lakes. Light snow is expected to
overspread the area into the late afternoon and evening, continuing
into the overnight. Right now accumulations look to stay in the 1 to
3 inch range with this system.

Monday - Monday Night...

Focus continues to be on the early week storm system as upper
pattern becomes amplified over the central CONUS in response to a
strong polar jet diving into the northern Plains. Models continue
have trouble the complexity of the upper air pattern and potential
interaction with the subtropical jet. Depending on this interaction
and the eventual strength track of the associated surface low, a
snow or rain scenario is still on the table for our CWA. Most likely
scenario at this point is snow monday morning, changing to a mix or
rain through the day as the warm nose lifts north. Locations across
our northern CWA would be most likely to stay in snow longer, with
our southern CWA more likely to change over. Have reflected this
approach in the latest forecast, but will not take the possibility
of a significant snow off the table until data becomes more
consistent.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Lower confidence as we head into mid week. There is a signal for
another weak clipper two moving through the NW flow. A few rain or
snow showers are possible with these depending on what time of day
they arrive. Overall, we will see a trend toward milder. Heights
really begin to rise by Thursday as upper ridge gets established
over the central CONUS. Highs could solidly be in the 50s by then.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

A clipper system will track through Kentucky over the course of this
TAF period. A band of light snow is likely to impact BWG between 10
and 14z with MVFR to possibly IFR conditions. Snow accumulations of
1 inch or less are expected. Meanwhile, both SDF and LEX is likely
to have flurries or very light snow showers with little aviation
impact. Ceilings will drop down into MVFR, especially under any
particular snow shower or streak at all TAF sites this morning but
the greatest confidence for restrictions is at BWG.

For this afternoon, as the Arctic front comes in, scattered snow
showers are possible at SDF/LEX. These may bring brief periods of
reduced visibility and lower ceilings, but will be short-lived at
any given time. The most likely time frame would be 21-02z.

Winds will also become gusty during the afternoon in advance and
behind the frontal passage. Gusts to 20 kts or so are expected out
of the west.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ to 11 AM EST
     /10 AM CST/ this morning for KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 120523
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1223 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

There are some light returns showing up on radar this evening, but
this is mainly virga at this time, working to saturate the
atmosphere. The latest guidance continues to suggest a band of light
accumulating snow will move in between 09-10Z across south central
Kentucky and drop a quick half an inch to an inch of snow through
mid day. The latest guidance including the NAM/HRRR/local WRF has
shifted a bit further to the south with the band of snow. In
addition, it is suggesting slightly more QPF further to the
southwest as well. Therefore, Logan and Simpson counties were added
in to the Winter Weather Advisory.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Temps are in the upper 20s to low and mid 30s across the region,
however will quickly fall back into the 20s this evening. As this
occurs, left exit region of an upper jet will slide into the
Tennessee/Green/Cumberland River Valleys, along with deeper
moisture. Latest data has shifted well to the SW with the "heaviest"
axis of snowfall overnight and focuses on the southern two or three
tiers of counties underneath the left exit region. Data shows a 2-4
hour period of good lift with saturation up through the DGZ which
would result in light to briefly moderate snow around sunrise. With
snow ratios nearing 15 to 1, expecting that snow accums could range
between a half inch and 1 inch. Will go with an impact based Winter
Weather Advisory around the morning commute across our south, in
coordination with PAH/OHX/JKL. Amounts won`t be overly impressive,
but slick spots during the morning commute are expected.

Further north, will issue an SPS where flurries and light snow will
have a harder time overcoming the drier air to the north. In this
area, a dusting to a half an inch is possible. A few slick spots
will be possible for the morning commute in these area, but not to
the extent expected further south.

After a brief lull in the late morning and early afternoon, expect
scattered snow showers to commence once again mainly across the Blue
Grass and Lake Cumberland regions. This will mainly be due to
steepening low level lapse rates and a slight upslope component
given NW surface winds. These showers should be light as moisture
will not be as deep by this time. Temperatures will top out in the
30s.

Lows Friday night drop into 10 to 15 degree range. A few upper
single digits are possible. Flurries taper off early in the evening.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Saturday and Saturday Night

Tranquil period here as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Question mark as far as how cold it gets Saturday night will be
thicker cirrus building in from the west through the night. Have
gone close to statistical guidance for lows, with readings around
10, but colder in our Bluegrass.

Sunday - Sunday Night...

Light snow accumulations are still looking likely for the Sunday
into Sunday night period. Temperatures will start off in the single
digits to lower teens in the morning, however should warm to the
upper 20s and lower 30s by afternoon. Meanwhile, atmospheric column
will saturate deeper moisture moves into the area ahead a
disturbance over the Great Lakes. Light snow is expected to
overspread the area into the late afternoon and evening, continuing
into the overnight. Right now accumulations look to stay in the 1 to
3 inch range with this system.

Monday - Monday Night...

Focus continues to be on the early week storm system as upper
pattern becomes amplified over the central CONUS in response to a
strong polar jet diving into the northern Plains. Models continue
have trouble the complexity of the upper air pattern and potential
interaction with the subtropical jet. Depending on this interaction
and the eventual strength track of the associated surface low, a
snow or rain scenario is still on the table for our CWA. Most likely
scenario at this point is snow monday morning, changing to a mix or
rain through the day as the warm nose lifts north. Locations across
our northern CWA would be most likely to stay in snow longer, with
our southern CWA more likely to change over. Have reflected this
approach in the latest forecast, but will not take the possibility
of a significant snow off the table until data becomes more
consistent.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Lower confidence as we head into mid week. There is a signal for
another weak clipper two moving through the NW flow. A few rain or
snow showers are possible with these depending on what time of day
they arrive. Overall, we will see a trend toward milder. Heights
really begin to rise by Thursday as upper ridge gets established
over the central CONUS. Highs could solidly be in the 50s by then.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2016

A clipper system will track through Kentucky over the course of this
TAF period. A band of light snow is likely to impact BWG between 10
and 14z with MVFR to possibly IFR conditions. Snow accumulations of
1 inch or less are expected. Meanwhile, both SDF and LEX is likely
to have flurries or very light snow showers with little aviation
impact. Ceilings will drop down into MVFR, especially under any
particular snow shower or streak at all TAF sites this morning but
the greatest confidence for restrictions is at BWG.

For this afternoon, as the Arctic front comes in, scattered snow
showers are possible at SDF/LEX. These may bring brief periods of
reduced visibility and lower ceilings, but will be short-lived at
any given time. The most likely time frame would be 21-02z.

Winds will also become gusty during the afternoon in advance and
behind the frontal passage. Gusts to 20 kts or so are expected out
of the west.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ to 11 AM EST
     /10 AM CST/ this morning for KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 120232
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
932 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

There are some light returns showing up on radar this evening, but
this is mainly virga at this time, working to saturate the
atmosphere. The latest guidance continues to suggest a band of light
accumulating snow will move in between 09-10Z across south central
Kentucky and drop a quick half an inch to an inch of snow through
mid day. The latest guidance including the NAM/HRRR/local WRF has
shifted a bit further to the south with the band of snow. In
addition, it is suggesting slightly more QPF further to the
southwest as well. Therefore, Logan and Simpson counties were added
in to the Winter Weather Advisory.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Temps are in the upper 20s to low and mid 30s across the region,
however will quickly fall back into the 20s this evening. As this
occurs, left exit region of an upper jet will slide into the
Tennessee/Green/Cumberland River Valleys, along with deeper
moisture. Latest data has shifted well to the SW with the "heaviest"
axis of snowfall overnight and focuses on the southern two or three
tiers of counties underneath the left exit region. Data shows a 2-4
hour period of good lift with saturation up through the DGZ which
would result in light to briefly moderate snow around sunrise. With
snow ratios nearing 15 to 1, expecting that snow accums could range
between a half inch and 1 inch. Will go with an impact based Winter
Weather Advisory around the morning commute across our south, in
coordination with PAH/OHX/JKL. Amounts won`t be overly impressive,
but slick spots during the morning commute are expected.

Further north, will issue an SPS where flurries and light snow will
have a harder time overcoming the drier air to the north. In this
area, a dusting to a half an inch is possible. A few slick spots
will be possible for the morning commute in these area, but not to
the extent expected further south.

After a brief lull in the late morning and early afternoon, expect
scattered snow showers to commence once again mainly across the Blue
Grass and Lake Cumberland regions. This will mainly be due to
steepening low level lapse rates and a slight upslope component
given NW surface winds. These showers should be light as moisture
will not be as deep by this time. Temperatures will top out in the
30s.

Lows Friday night drop into 10 to 15 degree range. A few upper
single digits are possible. Flurries taper off early in the evening.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Saturday and Saturday Night

Tranquil period here as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Question mark as far as how cold it gets Saturday night will be
thicker cirrus building in from the west through the night. Have
gone close to statistical guidance for lows, with readings around
10, but colder in our Bluegrass.

Sunday - Sunday Night...

Light snow accumulations are still looking likely for the Sunday
into Sunday night period. Temperatures will start off in the single
digits to lower teens in the morning, however should warm to the
upper 20s and lower 30s by afternoon. Meanwhile, atmospheric column
will saturate deeper moisture moves into the area ahead a
disturbance over the Great Lakes. Light snow is expected to
overspread the area into the late afternoon and evening, continuing
into the overnight. Right now accumulations look to stay in the 1 to
3 inch range with this system.

Monday - Monday Night...

Focus continues to be on the early week storm system as upper
pattern becomes amplified over the central CONUS in response to a
strong polar jet diving into the northern Plains. Models continue
have trouble the complexity of the upper air pattern and potential
interaction with the subtropical jet. Depending on this interaction
and the eventual strength track of the associated surface low, a
snow or rain scenario is still on the table for our CWA. Most likely
scenario at this point is snow monday morning, changing to a mix or
rain through the day as the warm nose lifts north. Locations across
our northern CWA would be most likely to stay in snow longer, with
our southern CWA more likely to change over. Have reflected this
approach in the latest forecast, but will not take the possibility
of a significant snow off the table until data becomes more
consistent.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Lower confidence as we head into mid week. There is a signal for
another weak clipper two moving through the NW flow. A few rain or
snow showers are possible with these depending on what time of day
they arrive. Overall, we will see a trend toward milder. Heights
really begin to rise by Thursday as upper ridge gets established
over the central CONUS. Highs could solidly be in the 50s by then.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 600 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Mostly clear skies early this evening will become mostly cloudy
through the evening hours as moisture works its way in ahead of a
system moving through Friday morning. Ceilings will continue to
lower through the overnight hours. The system tomorrow morning will
bring some light snow to the region. Currently, BWG stands the best
chance of seeing impacts from this snow. Visibilities may drop to
IFR at times and ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR. The snow
will begin in the 10-11Z time frame and have a TEMPO group for the
period where the heaviest snow could fall. Will keep in a PROB30
group at SDF and LEX as confidence in snow potential is lower at
these sites. There is also a chance for some snow showers at SDF and
LEX during the afternoon tomorrow, but confidence of one of those
impacting the terminals is even lower than in the morning.

Winds will be light and variable overnight. They will pick up out of
the west in the wake of a cold front tomorrow afternoon and should
become gusty.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ to 11 AM EST
     /10 AM CST/ Friday for KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 112301
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
601 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Temps are in the upper 20s to low and mid 30s across the region,
however will quickly fall back into the 20s this evening. As this
occurs, left exit region of an upper jet will slide into the
Tennessee/Green/Cumberland River Valleys, along with deeper
moisture. Latest data has shifted well to the SW with the "heaviest"
axis of snowfall overnight and focuses on the southern two or three
tiers of counties underneath the left exit region. Data shows a 2-4
hour period of good lift with saturation up through the DGZ which
would result in light to briefly moderate snow around sunrise. With
snow ratios nearing 15 to 1, expecting that snow accums could range
between a half inch and 1 inch. Will go with an impact based Winter
Weather Advisory around the morning commute across our south, in
coordination with PAH/OHX/JKL. Amounts won`t be overly impressive,
but slick spots during the morning commute are expected.

Further north, will issue an SPS where flurries and light snow will
have a harder time overcoming the drier air to the north. In this
area, a dusting to a half an inch is possible. A few slick spots
will be possible for the morning commute in these area, but not to
the extent expected further south.

After a brief lull in the late morning and early afternoon, expect
scattered snow showers to commence once again mainly across the Blue
Grass and Lake Cumberland regions. This will mainly be due to
steepening low level lapse rates and a slight upslope component
given NW surface winds. These showers should be light as moisture
will not be as deep by this time. Temperatures will top out in the
30s.

Lows Friday night drop into 10 to 15 degree range. A few upper
single digits are possible. Flurries taper off early in the evening.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Saturday and Saturday Night

Tranquil period here as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Question mark as far as how cold it gets Saturday night will be
thicker cirrus building in from the west through the night. Have
gone close to statistical guidance for lows, with readings around
10, but colder in our Bluegrass.

Sunday - Sunday Night...

Light snow accumulations are still looking likely for the Sunday
into Sunday night period. Temperatures will start off in the single
digits to lower teens in the morning, however should warm to the
upper 20s and lower 30s by afternoon. Meanwhile, atmospheric column
will saturate deeper moisture moves into the area ahead a
disturbance over the Great Lakes. Light snow is expected to
overspread the area into the late afternoon and evening, continuing
into the overnight. Right now accumulations look to stay in the 1 to
3 inch range with this system.

Monday - Monday Night...

Focus continues to be on the early week storm system as upper
pattern becomes amplified over the central CONUS in response to a
strong polar jet diving into the northern Plains. Models continue
have trouble the complexity of the upper air pattern and potential
interaction with the subtropical jet. Depending on this interaction
and the eventual strength track of the associated surface low, a
snow or rain scenario is still on the table for our CWA. Most likely
scenario at this point is snow monday morning, changing to a mix or
rain through the day as the warm nose lifts north. Locations across
our northern CWA would be most likely to stay in snow longer, with
our southern CWA more likely to change over. Have reflected this
approach in the latest forecast, but will not take the possibility
of a significant snow off the table until data becomes more
consistent.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Lower confidence as we head into mid week. There is a signal for
another weak clipper two moving through the NW flow. A few rain or
snow showers are possible with these depending on what time of day
they arrive. Overall, we will see a trend toward milder. Heights
really begin to rise by Thursday as upper ridge gets established
over the central CONUS. Highs could solidly be in the 50s by then.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 600 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Mostly clear skies early this evening will become mostly cloudy
through the evening hours as moisture works its way in ahead of a
system moving through Friday morning. Ceilings will continue to
lower through the overnight hours. The system tomorrow morning will
bring some light snow to the region. Currently, BWG stands the best
chance of seeing impacts from this snow. Visibilities may drop to
IFR at times and ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR. The snow
will begin in the 10-11Z time frame and have a TEMPO group for the
period where the heaviest snow could fall. Will keep in a PROB30
group at SDF and LEX as confidence in snow potential is lower at
these sites. There is also a chance for some snow showers at SDF and
LEX during the afternoon tomorrow, but confidence of one of those
impacting the terminals is even lower than in the morning.

Winds will be light and variable overnight. They will pick up out of
the west in the wake of a cold front tomorrow afternoon and should
become gusty.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ to 11 AM EST
     /10 AM CST/ Friday for KYZ026-027-061>067-071-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EER




000
FXUS63 KLMK 112301
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
601 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Temps are in the upper 20s to low and mid 30s across the region,
however will quickly fall back into the 20s this evening. As this
occurs, left exit region of an upper jet will slide into the
Tennessee/Green/Cumberland River Valleys, along with deeper
moisture. Latest data has shifted well to the SW with the "heaviest"
axis of snowfall overnight and focuses on the southern two or three
tiers of counties underneath the left exit region. Data shows a 2-4
hour period of good lift with saturation up through the DGZ which
would result in light to briefly moderate snow around sunrise. With
snow ratios nearing 15 to 1, expecting that snow accums could range
between a half inch and 1 inch. Will go with an impact based Winter
Weather Advisory around the morning commute across our south, in
coordination with PAH/OHX/JKL. Amounts won`t be overly impressive,
but slick spots during the morning commute are expected.

Further north, will issue an SPS where flurries and light snow will
have a harder time overcoming the drier air to the north. In this
area, a dusting to a half an inch is possible. A few slick spots
will be possible for the morning commute in these area, but not to
the extent expected further south.

After a brief lull in the late morning and early afternoon, expect
scattered snow showers to commence once again mainly across the Blue
Grass and Lake Cumberland regions. This will mainly be due to
steepening low level lapse rates and a slight upslope component
given NW surface winds. These showers should be light as moisture
will not be as deep by this time. Temperatures will top out in the
30s.

Lows Friday night drop into 10 to 15 degree range. A few upper
single digits are possible. Flurries taper off early in the evening.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Saturday and Saturday Night

Tranquil period here as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Question mark as far as how cold it gets Saturday night will be
thicker cirrus building in from the west through the night. Have
gone close to statistical guidance for lows, with readings around
10, but colder in our Bluegrass.

Sunday - Sunday Night...

Light snow accumulations are still looking likely for the Sunday
into Sunday night period. Temperatures will start off in the single
digits to lower teens in the morning, however should warm to the
upper 20s and lower 30s by afternoon. Meanwhile, atmospheric column
will saturate deeper moisture moves into the area ahead a
disturbance over the Great Lakes. Light snow is expected to
overspread the area into the late afternoon and evening, continuing
into the overnight. Right now accumulations look to stay in the 1 to
3 inch range with this system.

Monday - Monday Night...

Focus continues to be on the early week storm system as upper
pattern becomes amplified over the central CONUS in response to a
strong polar jet diving into the northern Plains. Models continue
have trouble the complexity of the upper air pattern and potential
interaction with the subtropical jet. Depending on this interaction
and the eventual strength track of the associated surface low, a
snow or rain scenario is still on the table for our CWA. Most likely
scenario at this point is snow monday morning, changing to a mix or
rain through the day as the warm nose lifts north. Locations across
our northern CWA would be most likely to stay in snow longer, with
our southern CWA more likely to change over. Have reflected this
approach in the latest forecast, but will not take the possibility
of a significant snow off the table until data becomes more
consistent.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Lower confidence as we head into mid week. There is a signal for
another weak clipper two moving through the NW flow. A few rain or
snow showers are possible with these depending on what time of day
they arrive. Overall, we will see a trend toward milder. Heights
really begin to rise by Thursday as upper ridge gets established
over the central CONUS. Highs could solidly be in the 50s by then.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 600 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Mostly clear skies early this evening will become mostly cloudy
through the evening hours as moisture works its way in ahead of a
system moving through Friday morning. Ceilings will continue to
lower through the overnight hours. The system tomorrow morning will
bring some light snow to the region. Currently, BWG stands the best
chance of seeing impacts from this snow. Visibilities may drop to
IFR at times and ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR. The snow
will begin in the 10-11Z time frame and have a TEMPO group for the
period where the heaviest snow could fall. Will keep in a PROB30
group at SDF and LEX as confidence in snow potential is lower at
these sites. There is also a chance for some snow showers at SDF and
LEX during the afternoon tomorrow, but confidence of one of those
impacting the terminals is even lower than in the morning.

Winds will be light and variable overnight. They will pick up out of
the west in the wake of a cold front tomorrow afternoon and should
become gusty.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ to 11 AM EST
     /10 AM CST/ Friday for KYZ026-027-061>067-071-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 112301
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
601 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Temps are in the upper 20s to low and mid 30s across the region,
however will quickly fall back into the 20s this evening. As this
occurs, left exit region of an upper jet will slide into the
Tennessee/Green/Cumberland River Valleys, along with deeper
moisture. Latest data has shifted well to the SW with the "heaviest"
axis of snowfall overnight and focuses on the southern two or three
tiers of counties underneath the left exit region. Data shows a 2-4
hour period of good lift with saturation up through the DGZ which
would result in light to briefly moderate snow around sunrise. With
snow ratios nearing 15 to 1, expecting that snow accums could range
between a half inch and 1 inch. Will go with an impact based Winter
Weather Advisory around the morning commute across our south, in
coordination with PAH/OHX/JKL. Amounts won`t be overly impressive,
but slick spots during the morning commute are expected.

Further north, will issue an SPS where flurries and light snow will
have a harder time overcoming the drier air to the north. In this
area, a dusting to a half an inch is possible. A few slick spots
will be possible for the morning commute in these area, but not to
the extent expected further south.

After a brief lull in the late morning and early afternoon, expect
scattered snow showers to commence once again mainly across the Blue
Grass and Lake Cumberland regions. This will mainly be due to
steepening low level lapse rates and a slight upslope component
given NW surface winds. These showers should be light as moisture
will not be as deep by this time. Temperatures will top out in the
30s.

Lows Friday night drop into 10 to 15 degree range. A few upper
single digits are possible. Flurries taper off early in the evening.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Saturday and Saturday Night

Tranquil period here as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Question mark as far as how cold it gets Saturday night will be
thicker cirrus building in from the west through the night. Have
gone close to statistical guidance for lows, with readings around
10, but colder in our Bluegrass.

Sunday - Sunday Night...

Light snow accumulations are still looking likely for the Sunday
into Sunday night period. Temperatures will start off in the single
digits to lower teens in the morning, however should warm to the
upper 20s and lower 30s by afternoon. Meanwhile, atmospheric column
will saturate deeper moisture moves into the area ahead a
disturbance over the Great Lakes. Light snow is expected to
overspread the area into the late afternoon and evening, continuing
into the overnight. Right now accumulations look to stay in the 1 to
3 inch range with this system.

Monday - Monday Night...

Focus continues to be on the early week storm system as upper
pattern becomes amplified over the central CONUS in response to a
strong polar jet diving into the northern Plains. Models continue
have trouble the complexity of the upper air pattern and potential
interaction with the subtropical jet. Depending on this interaction
and the eventual strength track of the associated surface low, a
snow or rain scenario is still on the table for our CWA. Most likely
scenario at this point is snow monday morning, changing to a mix or
rain through the day as the warm nose lifts north. Locations across
our northern CWA would be most likely to stay in snow longer, with
our southern CWA more likely to change over. Have reflected this
approach in the latest forecast, but will not take the possibility
of a significant snow off the table until data becomes more
consistent.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Lower confidence as we head into mid week. There is a signal for
another weak clipper two moving through the NW flow. A few rain or
snow showers are possible with these depending on what time of day
they arrive. Overall, we will see a trend toward milder. Heights
really begin to rise by Thursday as upper ridge gets established
over the central CONUS. Highs could solidly be in the 50s by then.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 600 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Mostly clear skies early this evening will become mostly cloudy
through the evening hours as moisture works its way in ahead of a
system moving through Friday morning. Ceilings will continue to
lower through the overnight hours. The system tomorrow morning will
bring some light snow to the region. Currently, BWG stands the best
chance of seeing impacts from this snow. Visibilities may drop to
IFR at times and ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR. The snow
will begin in the 10-11Z time frame and have a TEMPO group for the
period where the heaviest snow could fall. Will keep in a PROB30
group at SDF and LEX as confidence in snow potential is lower at
these sites. There is also a chance for some snow showers at SDF and
LEX during the afternoon tomorrow, but confidence of one of those
impacting the terminals is even lower than in the morning.

Winds will be light and variable overnight. They will pick up out of
the west in the wake of a cold front tomorrow afternoon and should
become gusty.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ to 11 AM EST
     /10 AM CST/ Friday for KYZ026-027-061>067-071-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 112024
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
324 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

...Light Snow Tomorrow Morning...

Temps are in the upper 20s to low and mid 30s across the region,
however will quickly fall back into the 20s this evening. As this
occurs, left exit region of an upper jet will slide into the
Tennessee/Green/Cumberland River Valleys, along with deeper
moisture. Latest data has shifted well to the SW with the "heaviest"
axis of snowfall overnight and focuses on the southern two or three
tiers of counties underneath the left exit region. Data shows a 2-4
hour period of good lift with saturation up through the DGZ which
would result in light to briefly moderate snow around sunrise. With
snow ratios nearing 15 to 1, expecting that snow accums could range
between a half inch and 1 inch. Will go with an impact based Winter
Weather Advisory around the morning commute across our south, in
coordination with PAH/OHX/JKL. Amounts won`t be overly impressive,
but slick spots during the morning commute are expected.

Further north, will issue an SPS where flurries and light snow will
have a harder time overcoming the drier air to the north. In this
area, a dusting to a half an inch is possible. A few slick spots
will be possible for the morning commute in these area, but not to
the extent expected further south.

After a brief lull in the late morning and early afternoon, expect
scattered snow showers to commence once again mainly across the Blue
Grass and Lake Cumberland regions. This will mainly be due to
steepening low level lapse rates and a slight upslope component
given NW surface winds. These showers should be light as moisture
will not be as deep by this time. Temperatures will top out in the
30s.

Lows Friday night drop into 10 to 15 degree range. A few upper
single digits are possible. Flurries taper off early in the evening.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Saturday and Saturday Night

Tranquil period here as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Question mark as far as how cold it gets Saturday night will be
thicker cirrus building in from the west through the night. Have
gone close to statistical guidance for lows, with readings around
10, but colder in our Bluegrass.

Sunday - Sunday Night...

Light snow accumulations are still looking likely for the Sunday
into Sunday night period. Temperatures will start off in the single
digits to lower teens in the morning, however should warm to the
upper 20s and lower 30s by afternoon. Meanwhile, atmospheric column
will saturate deeper moisture moves into the area ahead a
disturbance over the Great Lakes. Light snow is expected to
overspread the area into the late afternoon and evening, continuing
into the overnight. Right now accumulations look to stay in the 1 to
3 inch range with this system.

Monday - Monday Night...

Focus continues to be on the early week storm system as upper
pattern becomes amplified over the central CONUS in response to a
strong polar jet diving into the northern Plains. Models continue
have trouble the complexity of the upper air pattern and potential
interaction with the subtropical jet. Depending on this interaction
and the eventual strength track of the associated surface low, a
snow or rain scenario is still on the table for our CWA. Most likely
scenario at this point is snow monday morning, changing to a mix or
rain through the day as the warm nose lifts north. Locations across
our northern CWA would be most likely to stay in snow longer, with
our southern CWA more likely to change over. Have reflected this
approach in the latest forecast, but will not take the possibility
of a significant snow off the table until data becomes more
consistent.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Lower confidence as we head into mid week. There is a signal for
another weak clipper two moving through the NW flow. A few rain or
snow showers are possible with these depending on what time of day
they arrive. Overall, we will see a trend toward milder. Heights
really begin to rise by Thursday as upper ridge gets established
over the central CONUS. Highs could solidly be in the 50s by then.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1230 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Have had some bands of high-end MVFR cumulus develop near LEX and
BWG this hour. May briefly see broken cigs at those sites for the
next few hours. Otherwise focus will be on snow chances early
Friday. A mid-level deck will thicken through the evening hours.
Model guidance at this point shows the best chances for snow at KBWG
so have a prevailing group there for several hours, but went PROB30
for the other two sites. Behind those chances we should see an MVFR
deck that sticks around through then end of the forecast period.
Winds will be variable, but should pick up from the west tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 111739
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1239 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the short term is light snow chances
Friday.

As of 3 am, northwest flow aloft remains in place across the Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. Fast moving but weak
impulses have been riding through this flow periodically and any
moisture available in the atmosphere lies within the DGZ, so very
light flurries or an occasional snow shower have been reported.
Regional radar mosaic shows light returns across southwest Indiana
and northern Kentucky and this will continue for a few hours early
this morning, without any impacts. Otherwise, morning readings were
in the teens to low 20s with wind chills in the single digits to
around 10 degrees.

For today, plan on mostly cloudy skies this morning giving way to
more sun by afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the upper 20s to
mid 30s, the coldest readings across southern Indiana and the
Bluegrass region of Kentucky. We`ll have light north winds 5 to 10
mph.

The surface high quickly moves from Indiana this evening to Virgina
tonight while upstream a fast moving clipper takes a dive toward the
lower Ohio Valley. The signal in the models for this clipper has
been consistent the past few days. This system remains somewhat
moisture limited but light snow is likely to spread into the area
early Friday morning and last through early afternoon. At this time,
the highest chances look to be across southern Indiana south toward
central Kentucky, where a few tenths of an inch are possible. Since
the recent wave train of clippers have overachieved in some spots, a
localized 0.5 to maybe 1 inch report isn`t out of the question, but
that is on the high end of probability. Some slick spots, especially
on any untreated and less traveled roads, are possible for the
Friday morning commute. Plan on highs in the 30s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is the potential for a
winter system Sunday night into Monday night.

In the wake of the Friday snow clipper system, strong Arctic high
pressure builds across the entire area for Friday night. This will
usher in unseasonably cold air. Plan on lows Friday night to range
from 10 to 15F with the typical colder spots falling into the single
digits. Not much recovery expected for Saturday despite having a
mostly sunny day as highs struggle to reach the low/mid 20s. Morning
wind chills will hover a few degrees either side of 0, only
improving to 10 to 15 by afternoon. For comparison, normal highs for
mid February are 45 to 50 degrees.

The next weather system to impact the area comes Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. Phasing between the northern and southern
stream pieces of energy remains the big hurdle and question mark
within the deterministic and ensemble guidance. The 11.00z model
cycle seemed to favor a faster, less amplified/phased solution
across our area, not phasing the two pieces of energy until passing
over the Appalachians. This idea would still potentially bring
accumulating snow to much of the area, but keep the main deformation
band of precipitation to our south/east. However, it bears closely
watching as this system is still several days away and phasing
sooner may trend the system back to the northwest.

Overall, confidence in seeing some precipitation continues to trend
higher, but details and potential snow amounts remain below normal.
For now, bumped up POPs to the 50 to 70 percent range and kept a
rain/snow mix based on temperatures. Soundings show there could be
the potential for a wintry mix in the south toward the TN border but
will hold off for now mentioning in the weather grids.

Beyond that system, it`s looking likely that we`ll finally get a
pattern change toward above normal temperatures and less winter-like
weather. Will trend temperatures toward the upper 40s by mid week
with 50s possible mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1230 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Have had some bands of high-end MVFR cumulus develop near LEX and
BWG this hour. May briefly see broken cigs at those sites for the
next few hours. Otherwise focus will be on snow chances early
Friday. A mid-level deck will thicken through the evening hours.
Model guidance at this point shows the best chances for snow at KBWG
so have a prevailing group there for several hours, but went PROB30
for the other two sites. Behind those chances we should see an MVFR
deck that sticks around through then end of the forecast period.
Winds will be variable, but should pick up from the west tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 111108
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
608 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the short term is light snow chances
Friday.

As of 3 am, northwest flow aloft remains in place across the Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. Fast moving but weak
impulses have been riding through this flow periodically and any
moisture available in the atmosphere lies within the DGZ, so very
light flurries or an occasional snow shower have been reported.
Regional radar mosaic shows light returns across southwest Indiana
and northern Kentucky and this will continue for a few hours early
this morning, without any impacts. Otherwise, morning readings were
in the teens to low 20s with wind chills in the single digits to
around 10 degrees.

For today, plan on mostly cloudy skies this morning giving way to
more sun by afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the upper 20s to
mid 30s, the coldest readings across southern Indiana and the
Bluegrass region of Kentucky. We`ll have light north winds 5 to 10
mph.

The surface high quickly moves from Indiana this evening to Virgina
tonight while upstream a fast moving clipper takes a dive toward the
lower Ohio Valley. The signal in the models for this clipper has
been consistent the past few days. This system remains somewhat
moisture limited but light snow is likely to spread into the area
early Friday morning and last through early afternoon. At this time,
the highest chances look to be across southern Indiana south toward
central Kentucky, where a few tenths of an inch are possible. Since
the recent wave train of clippers have overachieved in some spots, a
localized 0.5 to maybe 1 inch report isn`t out of the question, but
that is on the high end of probability. Some slick spots, especially
on any untreated and less traveled roads, are possible for the
Friday morning commute. Plan on highs in the 30s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is the potential for a
winter system Sunday night into Monday night.

In the wake of the Friday snow clipper system, strong Arctic high
pressure builds across the entire area for Friday night. This will
usher in unseasonably cold air. Plan on lows Friday night to range
from 10 to 15F with the typical colder spots falling into the single
digits. Not much recovery expected for Saturday despite having a
mostly sunny day as highs struggle to reach the low/mid 20s. Morning
wind chills will hover a few degrees either side of 0, only
improving to 10 to 15 by afternoon. For comparison, normal highs for
mid February are 45 to 50 degrees.

The next weather system to impact the area comes Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. Phasing between the northern and southern
stream pieces of energy remains the big hurdle and question mark
within the deterministic and ensemble guidance. The 11.00z model
cycle seemed to favor a faster, less amplified/phased solution
across our area, not phasing the two pieces of energy until passing
over the Appalachians. This idea would still potentially bring
accumulating snow to much of the area, but keep the main deformation
band of precipitation to our south/east. However, it bears closely
watching as this system is still several days away and phasing
sooner may trend the system back to the northwest.

Overall, confidence in seeing some precipitation continues to trend
higher, but details and potential snow amounts remain below normal.
For now, bumped up POPs to the 50 to 70 percent range and kept a
rain/snow mix based on temperatures. Soundings show there could be
the potential for a wintry mix in the south toward the TN border but
will hold off for now mentioning in the weather grids.

Beyond that system, it`s looking likely that we`ll finally get a
pattern change toward above normal temperatures and less winter-like
weather. Will trend temperatures toward the upper 40s by mid week
with 50s possible mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 610 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the TAF period.
We`ll still see a NW-SE oriented shield of mid-level cloudiness work
across the region this morning.  Skies should temporarily scour out
this afternoon, but more cloudiness will move in during the evening
hours ahead of the next weather system.  Surface winds will start
off light and variable and then shift to the north/northeast late
this afternoon/evening.  VFR conditions are expected this evening
and into the overnight hours with ceilings lowering toward morning.
A clipper system will approach the region late in the TAF period
with light snow spreading eastward into the BWG and SDF terminal by
12/12Z or shortly thereafter.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........MJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 111108
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
608 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the short term is light snow chances
Friday.

As of 3 am, northwest flow aloft remains in place across the Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. Fast moving but weak
impulses have been riding through this flow periodically and any
moisture available in the atmosphere lies within the DGZ, so very
light flurries or an occasional snow shower have been reported.
Regional radar mosaic shows light returns across southwest Indiana
and northern Kentucky and this will continue for a few hours early
this morning, without any impacts. Otherwise, morning readings were
in the teens to low 20s with wind chills in the single digits to
around 10 degrees.

For today, plan on mostly cloudy skies this morning giving way to
more sun by afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the upper 20s to
mid 30s, the coldest readings across southern Indiana and the
Bluegrass region of Kentucky. We`ll have light north winds 5 to 10
mph.

The surface high quickly moves from Indiana this evening to Virgina
tonight while upstream a fast moving clipper takes a dive toward the
lower Ohio Valley. The signal in the models for this clipper has
been consistent the past few days. This system remains somewhat
moisture limited but light snow is likely to spread into the area
early Friday morning and last through early afternoon. At this time,
the highest chances look to be across southern Indiana south toward
central Kentucky, where a few tenths of an inch are possible. Since
the recent wave train of clippers have overachieved in some spots, a
localized 0.5 to maybe 1 inch report isn`t out of the question, but
that is on the high end of probability. Some slick spots, especially
on any untreated and less traveled roads, are possible for the
Friday morning commute. Plan on highs in the 30s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is the potential for a
winter system Sunday night into Monday night.

In the wake of the Friday snow clipper system, strong Arctic high
pressure builds across the entire area for Friday night. This will
usher in unseasonably cold air. Plan on lows Friday night to range
from 10 to 15F with the typical colder spots falling into the single
digits. Not much recovery expected for Saturday despite having a
mostly sunny day as highs struggle to reach the low/mid 20s. Morning
wind chills will hover a few degrees either side of 0, only
improving to 10 to 15 by afternoon. For comparison, normal highs for
mid February are 45 to 50 degrees.

The next weather system to impact the area comes Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. Phasing between the northern and southern
stream pieces of energy remains the big hurdle and question mark
within the deterministic and ensemble guidance. The 11.00z model
cycle seemed to favor a faster, less amplified/phased solution
across our area, not phasing the two pieces of energy until passing
over the Appalachians. This idea would still potentially bring
accumulating snow to much of the area, but keep the main deformation
band of precipitation to our south/east. However, it bears closely
watching as this system is still several days away and phasing
sooner may trend the system back to the northwest.

Overall, confidence in seeing some precipitation continues to trend
higher, but details and potential snow amounts remain below normal.
For now, bumped up POPs to the 50 to 70 percent range and kept a
rain/snow mix based on temperatures. Soundings show there could be
the potential for a wintry mix in the south toward the TN border but
will hold off for now mentioning in the weather grids.

Beyond that system, it`s looking likely that we`ll finally get a
pattern change toward above normal temperatures and less winter-like
weather. Will trend temperatures toward the upper 40s by mid week
with 50s possible mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 610 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the TAF period.
We`ll still see a NW-SE oriented shield of mid-level cloudiness work
across the region this morning.  Skies should temporarily scour out
this afternoon, but more cloudiness will move in during the evening
hours ahead of the next weather system.  Surface winds will start
off light and variable and then shift to the north/northeast late
this afternoon/evening.  VFR conditions are expected this evening
and into the overnight hours with ceilings lowering toward morning.
A clipper system will approach the region late in the TAF period
with light snow spreading eastward into the BWG and SDF terminal by
12/12Z or shortly thereafter.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 111108
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
608 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the short term is light snow chances
Friday.

As of 3 am, northwest flow aloft remains in place across the Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. Fast moving but weak
impulses have been riding through this flow periodically and any
moisture available in the atmosphere lies within the DGZ, so very
light flurries or an occasional snow shower have been reported.
Regional radar mosaic shows light returns across southwest Indiana
and northern Kentucky and this will continue for a few hours early
this morning, without any impacts. Otherwise, morning readings were
in the teens to low 20s with wind chills in the single digits to
around 10 degrees.

For today, plan on mostly cloudy skies this morning giving way to
more sun by afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the upper 20s to
mid 30s, the coldest readings across southern Indiana and the
Bluegrass region of Kentucky. We`ll have light north winds 5 to 10
mph.

The surface high quickly moves from Indiana this evening to Virgina
tonight while upstream a fast moving clipper takes a dive toward the
lower Ohio Valley. The signal in the models for this clipper has
been consistent the past few days. This system remains somewhat
moisture limited but light snow is likely to spread into the area
early Friday morning and last through early afternoon. At this time,
the highest chances look to be across southern Indiana south toward
central Kentucky, where a few tenths of an inch are possible. Since
the recent wave train of clippers have overachieved in some spots, a
localized 0.5 to maybe 1 inch report isn`t out of the question, but
that is on the high end of probability. Some slick spots, especially
on any untreated and less traveled roads, are possible for the
Friday morning commute. Plan on highs in the 30s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is the potential for a
winter system Sunday night into Monday night.

In the wake of the Friday snow clipper system, strong Arctic high
pressure builds across the entire area for Friday night. This will
usher in unseasonably cold air. Plan on lows Friday night to range
from 10 to 15F with the typical colder spots falling into the single
digits. Not much recovery expected for Saturday despite having a
mostly sunny day as highs struggle to reach the low/mid 20s. Morning
wind chills will hover a few degrees either side of 0, only
improving to 10 to 15 by afternoon. For comparison, normal highs for
mid February are 45 to 50 degrees.

The next weather system to impact the area comes Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. Phasing between the northern and southern
stream pieces of energy remains the big hurdle and question mark
within the deterministic and ensemble guidance. The 11.00z model
cycle seemed to favor a faster, less amplified/phased solution
across our area, not phasing the two pieces of energy until passing
over the Appalachians. This idea would still potentially bring
accumulating snow to much of the area, but keep the main deformation
band of precipitation to our south/east. However, it bears closely
watching as this system is still several days away and phasing
sooner may trend the system back to the northwest.

Overall, confidence in seeing some precipitation continues to trend
higher, but details and potential snow amounts remain below normal.
For now, bumped up POPs to the 50 to 70 percent range and kept a
rain/snow mix based on temperatures. Soundings show there could be
the potential for a wintry mix in the south toward the TN border but
will hold off for now mentioning in the weather grids.

Beyond that system, it`s looking likely that we`ll finally get a
pattern change toward above normal temperatures and less winter-like
weather. Will trend temperatures toward the upper 40s by mid week
with 50s possible mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 610 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the TAF period.
We`ll still see a NW-SE oriented shield of mid-level cloudiness work
across the region this morning.  Skies should temporarily scour out
this afternoon, but more cloudiness will move in during the evening
hours ahead of the next weather system.  Surface winds will start
off light and variable and then shift to the north/northeast late
this afternoon/evening.  VFR conditions are expected this evening
and into the overnight hours with ceilings lowering toward morning.
A clipper system will approach the region late in the TAF period
with light snow spreading eastward into the BWG and SDF terminal by
12/12Z or shortly thereafter.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 110810
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
310 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the short term is light snow chances
Friday.

As of 3 am, northwest flow aloft remains in place across the Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. Fast moving but weak
impulses have been riding through this flow periodically and any
moisture available in the atmosphere lies within the DGZ, so very
light flurries or an occasional snow shower have been reported.
Regional radar mosaic shows light returns across southwest Indiana
and northern Kentucky and this will continue for a few hours early
this morning, without any impacts. Otherwise, morning readings were
in the teens to low 20s with wind chills in the single digits to
around 10 degrees.

For today, plan on mostly cloudy skies this morning giving way to
more sun by afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the upper 20s to
mid 30s, the coldest readings across southern Indiana and the
Bluegrass region of Kentucky. We`ll have light north winds 5 to 10
mph.

The surface high quickly moves from Indiana this evening to Virgina
tonight while upstream a fast moving clipper takes a dive toward the
lower Ohio Valley. The signal in the models for this clipper has
been consistent the past few days. This system remains somewhat
moisture limited but light snow is likely to spread into the area
early Friday morning and last through early afternoon. At this time,
the highest chances look to be across southern Indiana south toward
central Kentucky, where a few tenths of an inch are possible. Since
the recent wave train of clippers have overachieved in some spots, a
localized 0.5 to maybe 1 inch report isn`t out of the question, but
that is on the high end of probability. Some slick spots, especially
on any untreated and less traveled roads, are possible for the
Friday morning commute. Plan on highs in the 30s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is the potential for a
winter system Sunday night into Monday night.

In the wake of the Friday snow clipper system, strong Arctic high
pressure builds across the entire area for Friday night. This will
usher in unseasonably cold air. Plan on lows Friday night to range
from 10 to 15F with the typical colder spots falling into the single
digits. Not much recovery expected for Saturday despite having a
mostly sunny day as highs struggle to reach the low/mid 20s. Morning
wind chills will hover a few degrees either side of 0, only
improving to 10 to 15 by afternoon. For comparison, normal highs for
mid February are 45 to 50 degrees.

The next weather system to impact the area comes Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. Phasing between the northern and southern
stream pieces of energy remains the big hurdle and question mark
within the deterministic and ensemble guidance. The 11.00z model
cycle seemed to favor a faster, less amplified/phased solution
across our area, not phasing the two pieces of energy until passing
over the Appalachians. This idea would still potentially bring
accumulating snow to much of the area, but keep the main deformation
band of precipitation to our south/east. However, it bears closely
watching as this system is still several days away and phasing
sooner may trend the system back to the northwest.

Overall, confidence in seeing some precipitation continues to trend
higher, but details and potential snow amounts remain below normal.
For now, bumped up POPs to the 50 to 70 percent range and kept a
rain/snow mix based on temperatures. Soundings show there could be
the potential for a wintry mix in the south toward the TN border but
will hold off for now mentioning in the weather grids.

Beyond that system, it`s looking likely that we`ll finally get a
pattern change toward above normal temperatures and less winter-like
weather. Will trend temperatures toward the upper 40s by mid week
with 50s possible mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1215 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming forecast period.
Only exception is a brief period of MVFR ceilings over at KLEX early
this morning.  NW-SE oriented shield of mid level cloudiness will
persist across the region tonight with bases around 5-6kft AGL.
Surface winds generally be light and variable.  VFR conditions are
expected after sunrise at all the terminals with a light NW wind
through the day.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........MJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 110810
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
310 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the short term is light snow chances
Friday.

As of 3 am, northwest flow aloft remains in place across the Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. Fast moving but weak
impulses have been riding through this flow periodically and any
moisture available in the atmosphere lies within the DGZ, so very
light flurries or an occasional snow shower have been reported.
Regional radar mosaic shows light returns across southwest Indiana
and northern Kentucky and this will continue for a few hours early
this morning, without any impacts. Otherwise, morning readings were
in the teens to low 20s with wind chills in the single digits to
around 10 degrees.

For today, plan on mostly cloudy skies this morning giving way to
more sun by afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the upper 20s to
mid 30s, the coldest readings across southern Indiana and the
Bluegrass region of Kentucky. We`ll have light north winds 5 to 10
mph.

The surface high quickly moves from Indiana this evening to Virgina
tonight while upstream a fast moving clipper takes a dive toward the
lower Ohio Valley. The signal in the models for this clipper has
been consistent the past few days. This system remains somewhat
moisture limited but light snow is likely to spread into the area
early Friday morning and last through early afternoon. At this time,
the highest chances look to be across southern Indiana south toward
central Kentucky, where a few tenths of an inch are possible. Since
the recent wave train of clippers have overachieved in some spots, a
localized 0.5 to maybe 1 inch report isn`t out of the question, but
that is on the high end of probability. Some slick spots, especially
on any untreated and less traveled roads, are possible for the
Friday morning commute. Plan on highs in the 30s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is the potential for a
winter system Sunday night into Monday night.

In the wake of the Friday snow clipper system, strong Arctic high
pressure builds across the entire area for Friday night. This will
usher in unseasonably cold air. Plan on lows Friday night to range
from 10 to 15F with the typical colder spots falling into the single
digits. Not much recovery expected for Saturday despite having a
mostly sunny day as highs struggle to reach the low/mid 20s. Morning
wind chills will hover a few degrees either side of 0, only
improving to 10 to 15 by afternoon. For comparison, normal highs for
mid February are 45 to 50 degrees.

The next weather system to impact the area comes Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. Phasing between the northern and southern
stream pieces of energy remains the big hurdle and question mark
within the deterministic and ensemble guidance. The 11.00z model
cycle seemed to favor a faster, less amplified/phased solution
across our area, not phasing the two pieces of energy until passing
over the Appalachians. This idea would still potentially bring
accumulating snow to much of the area, but keep the main deformation
band of precipitation to our south/east. However, it bears closely
watching as this system is still several days away and phasing
sooner may trend the system back to the northwest.

Overall, confidence in seeing some precipitation continues to trend
higher, but details and potential snow amounts remain below normal.
For now, bumped up POPs to the 50 to 70 percent range and kept a
rain/snow mix based on temperatures. Soundings show there could be
the potential for a wintry mix in the south toward the TN border but
will hold off for now mentioning in the weather grids.

Beyond that system, it`s looking likely that we`ll finally get a
pattern change toward above normal temperatures and less winter-like
weather. Will trend temperatures toward the upper 40s by mid week
with 50s possible mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1215 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming forecast period.
Only exception is a brief period of MVFR ceilings over at KLEX early
this morning.  NW-SE oriented shield of mid level cloudiness will
persist across the region tonight with bases around 5-6kft AGL.
Surface winds generally be light and variable.  VFR conditions are
expected after sunrise at all the terminals with a light NW wind
through the day.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 110810
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
310 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the short term is light snow chances
Friday.

As of 3 am, northwest flow aloft remains in place across the Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. Fast moving but weak
impulses have been riding through this flow periodically and any
moisture available in the atmosphere lies within the DGZ, so very
light flurries or an occasional snow shower have been reported.
Regional radar mosaic shows light returns across southwest Indiana
and northern Kentucky and this will continue for a few hours early
this morning, without any impacts. Otherwise, morning readings were
in the teens to low 20s with wind chills in the single digits to
around 10 degrees.

For today, plan on mostly cloudy skies this morning giving way to
more sun by afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the upper 20s to
mid 30s, the coldest readings across southern Indiana and the
Bluegrass region of Kentucky. We`ll have light north winds 5 to 10
mph.

The surface high quickly moves from Indiana this evening to Virgina
tonight while upstream a fast moving clipper takes a dive toward the
lower Ohio Valley. The signal in the models for this clipper has
been consistent the past few days. This system remains somewhat
moisture limited but light snow is likely to spread into the area
early Friday morning and last through early afternoon. At this time,
the highest chances look to be across southern Indiana south toward
central Kentucky, where a few tenths of an inch are possible. Since
the recent wave train of clippers have overachieved in some spots, a
localized 0.5 to maybe 1 inch report isn`t out of the question, but
that is on the high end of probability. Some slick spots, especially
on any untreated and less traveled roads, are possible for the
Friday morning commute. Plan on highs in the 30s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is the potential for a
winter system Sunday night into Monday night.

In the wake of the Friday snow clipper system, strong Arctic high
pressure builds across the entire area for Friday night. This will
usher in unseasonably cold air. Plan on lows Friday night to range
from 10 to 15F with the typical colder spots falling into the single
digits. Not much recovery expected for Saturday despite having a
mostly sunny day as highs struggle to reach the low/mid 20s. Morning
wind chills will hover a few degrees either side of 0, only
improving to 10 to 15 by afternoon. For comparison, normal highs for
mid February are 45 to 50 degrees.

The next weather system to impact the area comes Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. Phasing between the northern and southern
stream pieces of energy remains the big hurdle and question mark
within the deterministic and ensemble guidance. The 11.00z model
cycle seemed to favor a faster, less amplified/phased solution
across our area, not phasing the two pieces of energy until passing
over the Appalachians. This idea would still potentially bring
accumulating snow to much of the area, but keep the main deformation
band of precipitation to our south/east. However, it bears closely
watching as this system is still several days away and phasing
sooner may trend the system back to the northwest.

Overall, confidence in seeing some precipitation continues to trend
higher, but details and potential snow amounts remain below normal.
For now, bumped up POPs to the 50 to 70 percent range and kept a
rain/snow mix based on temperatures. Soundings show there could be
the potential for a wintry mix in the south toward the TN border but
will hold off for now mentioning in the weather grids.

Beyond that system, it`s looking likely that we`ll finally get a
pattern change toward above normal temperatures and less winter-like
weather. Will trend temperatures toward the upper 40s by mid week
with 50s possible mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1215 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming forecast period.
Only exception is a brief period of MVFR ceilings over at KLEX early
this morning.  NW-SE oriented shield of mid level cloudiness will
persist across the region tonight with bases around 5-6kft AGL.
Surface winds generally be light and variable.  VFR conditions are
expected after sunrise at all the terminals with a light NW wind
through the day.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 110515
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1215 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 931 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

Most of the accumulating snow has ended for the night. Will keep
some low chances (20-30%) in the forecast for the next few hours
across south central KY, but most will see only flurries. Some slick
spots on roads will be possible where any light snow was able to
accumulate or where wet roads refroze. Other than pops the forecast
is in good shape and only minor tweaks were made.

Updated at 648 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

The band of light snow showers has begun to move into the
southwestern forecast area. The northern edge of the activity is
likely just virga or flurries at this point, but a heavier band has
moved into Logan and portions of Butler county. Model guidance
continues to depict this activity diminishing over the next few
hours and dissipating completely by 06Z. However, some light
accumulations will be possible prior to that with a few tenths of an
inch possible. Though widespread travel problems are not anticipated
at this time, a few slick spots will be possible on area roadways.
Grids have been updated to reflect the current radar trends, but no
big changes have been made.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

Guidance calling for snows over eastern MO to graze our southwest
forecast area before they dissipate, as the upper-level system
generating them moves into increasingly drier air aloft. This
balancing act will mean a continued lower chance for measurable
liquid equivalent snowfall, though the dry nature of the snow will
mean a chance for up to a few tenths of an inch of new snowfall to
drop across south central Kentucky by daybreak Thursday.

High pressure will build into the Midwest the rest of the day
Thursday, bringing some sunshine to the region. Our southern zones
will take a little longer for the clouds to scatter out. After lows
in the teens tonight, maybe even single digits in our cold spots in
the northeast, we should get a little warmer for highs tomorrow
compared to today. Still our northeast may only see the mid 20s,
whereas south central KY should get into the lower 30s.

The high will shift east of the region Thursday night, with another
clipper system projected to be approaching the region by daybreak
Friday. Increasing clouds may lead to our lows being more in the
evening and then slowly increase or remain steady the rest
of the overnight.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

Models are calling for that clipper system to have the most impact
on the northern half of our forecast area. However, the Euro came in
drier, instead shooting for our southeast forecast area to fire up
with some snow showers in the afternoon. Either way, this system
will not have much moisture to work with here, so totals should stay
under an inch. The Arctic high pressure behind this system will
bring temperatures back down after a "warm" day Friday in the 30s.
Expect highs Saturday to top out in the 20s, some 20 degrees below
normal for mid February. High pressure moving over the region
Saturday night should make for calm conditions and lows in the
single digits to low teens.

That high will shift to our east during the day Sunday, making way
for the next system to impact our area. The GFS/GEM each have a
quicker hitting system, with precip beginning Sunday night. The Euro
is coming in consistent with its previous run of a little later
onset followed by a wide deformation band moving across our area.
This solution would bring quite a bit of snow. To decide which way
to lean, looked at verification stats over the last 6 months for
most reliable pops and found the CONSAll and MOS as well as the GFS
have been the better ones to choose from. So will lean the forecast
that way for now. The consensus will include some info from the
Euro, so the trend will be snow-ier, though still way too early to
advertise totals.

Temperature forecasts will depend greatly on how far north the
associated surface low gets, but for now guidance seems a bit high.
Will go under guidance here as well as the next day, assuming we
have some snow cover on the ground. Models are trying to bring in a
sudden warmup after this Monday system, and think that snow cover
could slow it down a bit. As for precip, some guidance is keeping
light QPF in the northwest flow behind the Monday system.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1215 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming forecast period.
Only exception is a brief period of MVFR ceilings over at KLEX early
this morning.  NW-SE oriented shield of mid level cloudiness will
persist across the region tonight with bases around 5-6kft AGL.
Surface winds generally be light and variable.  VFR conditions are
expected after sunrise at all the terminals with a light NW wind
through the day.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 110515
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1215 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 931 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

Most of the accumulating snow has ended for the night. Will keep
some low chances (20-30%) in the forecast for the next few hours
across south central KY, but most will see only flurries. Some slick
spots on roads will be possible where any light snow was able to
accumulate or where wet roads refroze. Other than pops the forecast
is in good shape and only minor tweaks were made.

Updated at 648 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

The band of light snow showers has begun to move into the
southwestern forecast area. The northern edge of the activity is
likely just virga or flurries at this point, but a heavier band has
moved into Logan and portions of Butler county. Model guidance
continues to depict this activity diminishing over the next few
hours and dissipating completely by 06Z. However, some light
accumulations will be possible prior to that with a few tenths of an
inch possible. Though widespread travel problems are not anticipated
at this time, a few slick spots will be possible on area roadways.
Grids have been updated to reflect the current radar trends, but no
big changes have been made.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

Guidance calling for snows over eastern MO to graze our southwest
forecast area before they dissipate, as the upper-level system
generating them moves into increasingly drier air aloft. This
balancing act will mean a continued lower chance for measurable
liquid equivalent snowfall, though the dry nature of the snow will
mean a chance for up to a few tenths of an inch of new snowfall to
drop across south central Kentucky by daybreak Thursday.

High pressure will build into the Midwest the rest of the day
Thursday, bringing some sunshine to the region. Our southern zones
will take a little longer for the clouds to scatter out. After lows
in the teens tonight, maybe even single digits in our cold spots in
the northeast, we should get a little warmer for highs tomorrow
compared to today. Still our northeast may only see the mid 20s,
whereas south central KY should get into the lower 30s.

The high will shift east of the region Thursday night, with another
clipper system projected to be approaching the region by daybreak
Friday. Increasing clouds may lead to our lows being more in the
evening and then slowly increase or remain steady the rest
of the overnight.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

Models are calling for that clipper system to have the most impact
on the northern half of our forecast area. However, the Euro came in
drier, instead shooting for our southeast forecast area to fire up
with some snow showers in the afternoon. Either way, this system
will not have much moisture to work with here, so totals should stay
under an inch. The Arctic high pressure behind this system will
bring temperatures back down after a "warm" day Friday in the 30s.
Expect highs Saturday to top out in the 20s, some 20 degrees below
normal for mid February. High pressure moving over the region
Saturday night should make for calm conditions and lows in the
single digits to low teens.

That high will shift to our east during the day Sunday, making way
for the next system to impact our area. The GFS/GEM each have a
quicker hitting system, with precip beginning Sunday night. The Euro
is coming in consistent with its previous run of a little later
onset followed by a wide deformation band moving across our area.
This solution would bring quite a bit of snow. To decide which way
to lean, looked at verification stats over the last 6 months for
most reliable pops and found the CONSAll and MOS as well as the GFS
have been the better ones to choose from. So will lean the forecast
that way for now. The consensus will include some info from the
Euro, so the trend will be snow-ier, though still way too early to
advertise totals.

Temperature forecasts will depend greatly on how far north the
associated surface low gets, but for now guidance seems a bit high.
Will go under guidance here as well as the next day, assuming we
have some snow cover on the ground. Models are trying to bring in a
sudden warmup after this Monday system, and think that snow cover
could slow it down a bit. As for precip, some guidance is keeping
light QPF in the northwest flow behind the Monday system.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1215 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming forecast period.
Only exception is a brief period of MVFR ceilings over at KLEX early
this morning.  NW-SE oriented shield of mid level cloudiness will
persist across the region tonight with bases around 5-6kft AGL.
Surface winds generally be light and variable.  VFR conditions are
expected after sunrise at all the terminals with a light NW wind
through the day.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 110515
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1215 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 931 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

Most of the accumulating snow has ended for the night. Will keep
some low chances (20-30%) in the forecast for the next few hours
across south central KY, but most will see only flurries. Some slick
spots on roads will be possible where any light snow was able to
accumulate or where wet roads refroze. Other than pops the forecast
is in good shape and only minor tweaks were made.

Updated at 648 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

The band of light snow showers has begun to move into the
southwestern forecast area. The northern edge of the activity is
likely just virga or flurries at this point, but a heavier band has
moved into Logan and portions of Butler county. Model guidance
continues to depict this activity diminishing over the next few
hours and dissipating completely by 06Z. However, some light
accumulations will be possible prior to that with a few tenths of an
inch possible. Though widespread travel problems are not anticipated
at this time, a few slick spots will be possible on area roadways.
Grids have been updated to reflect the current radar trends, but no
big changes have been made.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

Guidance calling for snows over eastern MO to graze our southwest
forecast area before they dissipate, as the upper-level system
generating them moves into increasingly drier air aloft. This
balancing act will mean a continued lower chance for measurable
liquid equivalent snowfall, though the dry nature of the snow will
mean a chance for up to a few tenths of an inch of new snowfall to
drop across south central Kentucky by daybreak Thursday.

High pressure will build into the Midwest the rest of the day
Thursday, bringing some sunshine to the region. Our southern zones
will take a little longer for the clouds to scatter out. After lows
in the teens tonight, maybe even single digits in our cold spots in
the northeast, we should get a little warmer for highs tomorrow
compared to today. Still our northeast may only see the mid 20s,
whereas south central KY should get into the lower 30s.

The high will shift east of the region Thursday night, with another
clipper system projected to be approaching the region by daybreak
Friday. Increasing clouds may lead to our lows being more in the
evening and then slowly increase or remain steady the rest
of the overnight.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

Models are calling for that clipper system to have the most impact
on the northern half of our forecast area. However, the Euro came in
drier, instead shooting for our southeast forecast area to fire up
with some snow showers in the afternoon. Either way, this system
will not have much moisture to work with here, so totals should stay
under an inch. The Arctic high pressure behind this system will
bring temperatures back down after a "warm" day Friday in the 30s.
Expect highs Saturday to top out in the 20s, some 20 degrees below
normal for mid February. High pressure moving over the region
Saturday night should make for calm conditions and lows in the
single digits to low teens.

That high will shift to our east during the day Sunday, making way
for the next system to impact our area. The GFS/GEM each have a
quicker hitting system, with precip beginning Sunday night. The Euro
is coming in consistent with its previous run of a little later
onset followed by a wide deformation band moving across our area.
This solution would bring quite a bit of snow. To decide which way
to lean, looked at verification stats over the last 6 months for
most reliable pops and found the CONSAll and MOS as well as the GFS
have been the better ones to choose from. So will lean the forecast
that way for now. The consensus will include some info from the
Euro, so the trend will be snow-ier, though still way too early to
advertise totals.

Temperature forecasts will depend greatly on how far north the
associated surface low gets, but for now guidance seems a bit high.
Will go under guidance here as well as the next day, assuming we
have some snow cover on the ground. Models are trying to bring in a
sudden warmup after this Monday system, and think that snow cover
could slow it down a bit. As for precip, some guidance is keeping
light QPF in the northwest flow behind the Monday system.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1215 AM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming forecast period.
Only exception is a brief period of MVFR ceilings over at KLEX early
this morning.  NW-SE oriented shield of mid level cloudiness will
persist across the region tonight with bases around 5-6kft AGL.
Surface winds generally be light and variable.  VFR conditions are
expected after sunrise at all the terminals with a light NW wind
through the day.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ




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